Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Antero Resources' Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2018 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2018 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議與網路直播。(接線員指示) 請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Kennedy, Vice President of Finance and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給財務副總裁兼投資人關係主管 Michael Kennedy 先生。請開始。

Thank you for joining us for Antero's fourth quarter 2018 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our new website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

感謝各位參加 Antero 2018 年第四季投資人電話會議。我們將先用幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，接著開放問答。我也想請各位前往我們新網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中一併檢視。

Before we start our comments, I'd like to first remind you that during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在開始我們的評論之前，我想先提醒各位，本次電話會議中 Antero 管理層將發表前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。實際結果與成果可能與此類陳述所表達、暗示或預測者存在重大差異。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議也可能包含某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿，以取得關於此類指標的重要揭露資訊，包括與最可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Paul Rady，以及總裁兼財務長 Glen Warren。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

現在我把電話會議交給 Paul。

Thanks, Mike, and thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to review our 2018 development activity, including the cost efficiencies we have achieved and discuss our recently announced 2019 capital budget and flexible long-term development outlook. Glen will then highlight our fourth quarter and full year financial achievements and discuss the expected change in financial reporting to deconsolidate Antero Midstream from AR, following the simplification. Glen will also touch on our 2018 proved reserves and provide some additional color around our long-term outlook and firm transportation portfolio.

謝謝你，Mike，也感謝各位今天收聽本次電話會議。在我的評論中，我將回顧我們 2018 年的開發活動，包括我們已達成的成本效率，並討論我們近期公布的 2019 年資本預算以及具彈性的長期開發展望。接著 Glen 將重點說明我們第四季與全年財務成果，並討論在簡化交易後，預期在財務報導上將 Antero Midstream 自 AR 去合併（deconsolidate）的變更。Glen 也會談及我們 2018 年已證實儲量，並就我們的長期展望與固定運輸（firm transportation）組合提供更多說明。

Let's begin by discussing the efficiency improvements we made during the quarter and throughout 2018. Once again, Antero set new operational records during the fourth quarter.

我們先從討論本季以及 2018 年全年所做的效率提升開始。Antero 在第四季再次創下新的營運紀錄。

Looking at Slide #4 titled Drilling and Completion Efficiencies during the fourth quarter. Completion stages per day in the Marcellus set another company record for a full quarter, averaging 5.7 stages per day. For the full year of 2018, completion stages per day in the Marcellus averaged 5.2 stages per day, which was an increase of 1 full stage per day from the 2017 average of 4.2 stages per day. Looking at our 2019 budget, we are assuming 5.2 stages per day, so this is certainly an area we think we can outperform, resulting in additional well cost savings. To provide some detail on these savings, an increase of one additional stage per day would result in about $200,000 of savings per well.

請看第 4 張投影片「鑽井與完井效率」，聚焦第四季表現。Marcellus 的每日完井段數（completion stages per day）再度創下公司單季新高，平均每日 5.7 段。2018 年全年，Marcellus 的每日完井段數平均為每日 5.2 段，較 2017 年平均每日 4.2 段增加整整 1 段。就我們的 2019 年預算而言，我們假設每日 5.2 段，因此這確實是我們認為可以超越的領域，進而帶來額外的單井成本節省。為了提供一些節省細節，每日多增加 1 段將使每口井約可節省 20 萬美元。

Moving on to some of our recent operational results. During the fourth quarter, we turned to sales several outstanding Marcellus liquids-rich pads. One particular pad was a 10-well pad with an average lateral length of 9,700 feet and an average BTU of 1,230. This pad produced approximately 195 million cubic feet equivalent per day during the first 60 days or 19.5 million cubic feet equivalent per day per well. The liquids rate on this pad was nearly 10,100 barrels a day during the first 60 days, consisting of 1,400 barrels of oil, 5,700 barrels a day of C3+ NGLs and 3,000 barrels a day of recovered ethane, representing about a 25% ethane recovery.

接著談談我們近期的一些營運成果。第四季期間，我們有數個表現突出的 Marcellus 富液（liquids-rich）井場（pads）開始對外銷售。其中一個井場為 10 口井，平均水平段長度 9,700 英尺，平均 BTU 為 1,230。該井場在前 60 天的產量約為每日 1.95 億立方英尺當量（MMcfe/d），或每口井每日 1,950 萬立方英尺當量。該井場在前 60 天的液體產量接近每日 10,100 桶，包括 1,400 桶原油、每日 5,700 桶 C3+ NGL，以及每日 3,000 桶回收乙烷，約代表 25% 的乙烷回收率。

Another strong data point from the quarter was from a well we completed in our highest BTU regime that was drilled with a lateral length of nearly 15,100 feet. This well produced a 60-day rate of nearly 29 million cubic feet equivalent per day, including approximately 2,100 barrels of total liquids. As we enter 2019, we like where we are positioned from both a scale and commodity diversification standpoint.

本季另一個強勁數據點來自我們在最高 BTU 區域完成的一口井，其水平段長度接近 15,100 英尺。該井 60 天產量接近每日 2,900 萬立方英尺當量，其中包含約 2,100 桶的總液體。進入 2019 年，無論從規模或商品多元化角度來看，我們都很滿意目前的布局。

As illustrated on Slide #5 titled Antero's Balanced Position on the Commodity Spectrum, we are the largest NGL producer in the U.S. and the fifth largest natural gas producer. This scale across both commodities provides us with the ability to manage through commodity price volatility and prosper with any increase in either commodity. Antero holds 40% of the core undrilled liquids-rich locations in Appalachia, over 2.5x more than the closest competitor by our analysis. This extensive liquids inventory is a clear competitive advantage.

如第 5 張投影片「Antero 在商品光譜上的均衡布局」所示，我們是美國最大的 NGL 生產商，也是第五大天然氣生產商。在兩項商品上的規模，使我們能夠因應商品價格波動，並在任一商品價格上升時受益成長。依我們分析，Antero 擁有阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）核心未鑽探富液井位的 40%，比最接近的競爭對手多出超過 2.5 倍。這項龐大的富液庫存是明確的競爭優勢。

Now let's turn to our 2019 development plan and long-term outlook, which we announced on January 8. We are expecting annual production growth during 2019 in the range of 16% to 20% while spending within cash flow.

接下來談我們於 1 月 8 日公布的 2019 年開發計畫與長期展望。我們預期 2019 年年度產量成長介於 16% 至 20%，同時將資本支出控制在現金流範圍內。

Slide #6 titled Disciplined Long-Term Development Plan highlights our production growth through 2023 under multiple commodity price scenarios, ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel WTI, and $2.85 to $3.15 per MMBtu NYMEX natural gas pricing. The important takeaway here is that Antero will remain flexible depending on the commodity price outlook. We will remain disciplined, spending within cash flow in a low case but have the ability to prudently grow production to maximize free cash flow if commodity prices improve, ultimately delivering an appropriate mix of return of capital to shareholders and further deleveraging.

第 6 張投影片「嚴謹的長期開發計畫」在多種商品價格情境下，呈現我們至 2023 年的產量成長，情境範圍包括 WTI 每桶 50 至 65 美元，以及 NYMEX 天然氣每 MMBtu 2.85 至 3.15 美元。這裡的重要重點是，Antero 將依商品價格展望保持彈性。在低情境下，我們將維持紀律、把支出控制在現金流範圍內；但若商品價格改善，我們也有能力審慎擴大產量以最大化自由現金流，最終在回饋股東資本與進一步去槓桿之間，提供適當的組合。

To provide some more details on capital and our well costs, I'll point you to Slide #7 titled Path to 2019 Well Cost Efficiencies. On this page, you can see a bridge from our standalone Marcellus well cost when we entered 2018 to our target in 2019 for a 12,000-foot lateral. Entering 2018, our standalone Marcellus budgeted well costs were $950 per foot. As oil prices rose throughout the year, the well costs were impacted by 6% inflationary costs, primarily related to increases in water hauling costs and production facility expenses. We were able to primarily offset the inflation in 2018 with reduced sand cost through self-sourcing and overall completion costs through a 25% increase in stages per day and renegotiated contracts.

為了提供更多關於資本與單井成本的細節，請看第 7 張投影片「邁向 2019 年單井成本效率之路」。在此頁面，您可以看到一個橋接分析，從我們進入 2018 年時的獨立 Marcellus 單井成本，連結到 2019 年針對 12,000 英尺水平段的目標成本。進入 2018 年時，我們獨立 Marcellus 預算單井成本為每英尺 950 美元。隨著油價在全年上升，單井成本受到 6% 的通膨性成本影響，主要與水運成本上升及生產設施費用增加有關。我們在 2018 年主要透過自採供砂降低砂成本，以及藉由每日完井段數提升 25% 與重新議約來降低整體完井成本，從而大致抵銷了通膨影響。

Our 2019 target of $930 per foot assumes savings from additional sand self-sourcing contracts, a further increase in stage efficiencies and optimized water handling as well as improvements at the Clearwater facility. Further, we expect the D&C capital cost reductions by multiple public operators, to date, to lead to deflationary pressure on service and material costs.

我們2019年每英尺930美元的目標，假設可透過新增的砂石自供合約節省成本、壓裂段效率進一步提升、優化水處理，以及Clearwater設施的改善來達成。此外，我們預期迄今多家上市營運商在鑽井與完井（D&C）資本成本上的降低，將對服務與材料成本帶來通縮壓力。

All that being said, it's important to point out that our 2019 budget does not assume any of these additional operational or deflationary savings I just mentioned. I would also like to mention that these standalone well costs include all pad and facilities costs and all flowback water costs, which our peers may not include in their reported well costs.

儘管如此，仍需強調的是，我們的2019年預算並未假設我剛提到的任何額外營運節省或通縮節省。我也想提到，這些單井成本包含所有井場（pad）與設施成本，以及所有返排水（flowback water）成本，而同業在其揭露的井成本中未必會納入這些項目。

We remain focused on efficient capital spending in 2019, which will benefit from certain capital expenditures made during the fourth quarter of this last year of 2018. In particular, with better construction, weather conditions than we typically see in the latter part of the year, we invested $78 million for pads, roads and facilities in the fourth quarter, and we now have 18 pads that are in progress and planned to be turned to sales in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, as we discussed at our Analyst Day in early 2018, we transitioned to primarily building our pads today on larger footprints. Larger footprints allow us to be more capital efficient as we are able to operate under different scenarios such as drilling and completing pads concurrently or continuing to produce from wells on one side of a pad while drilling or completing wells on the other side of the pad. This ultimately results in a meaningful reduction in cycle times from spud to first sales and results in better alignment between capital spending and cash flow.

我們在2019年仍將專注於高效率的資本支出，而這將受益於我們在2018年第四季所進行的部分資本支出。特別是，由於施工與天候條件優於我們通常在年末所見，我們在第四季投入7,800萬美元用於井場、道路與設施，目前已有18個井場正在推進中，並計畫於2019年與2020年轉入銷售（turned to sales）。此外，如同我們在2018年初的分析師日所討論，我們已轉為主要在更大占地面積上建置井場。更大的占地面積使我們能更具資本效率，因為我們可以在不同情境下運作，例如同時進行井場的鑽井與完井，或在井場一側持續生產的同時，在另一側鑽井或完井。這最終可顯著縮短從開鑽（spud）到首次銷售的週期時間，並使資本支出與現金流之間的匹配更為一致。

Looking ahead to 2019, as a result of the focused spending on pad infrastructure and equipment in 2018, we expect to be at the low end of our previously announced drilling and completion capital budget of $1.3 billion to $1.45 billion on a standalone basis and $1.1 billion to $1.25 billion on a consolidated basis.

展望2019年，由於2018年在井場基礎設施與設備上的聚焦投入，我們預期在單體口徑下，鑽井與完井資本預算將落在先前公布的13億至14.5億美元區間的低端；在合併口徑下則為11億至12.5億美元。

Turning to Slide #8 titled Mariner East 2 Uplift. We're excited to have ME2 now in service. February represented the first month that we nominated our committed volume of 50,000 barrels a day of propane and butane at the Marcus Hook docks. Based on our contracts in place and current market pricing, we expect to receive a premium to Mont Belvieu pricing of at least $0.05 a gallon at the dock. As illustrated on this slide, this translates into an uplift of about $2 to $4 a barrel when compared to railing to the Mont Belvieu or Conway markets. It's also important to note that in addition to the $2 to $4 per barrel uplift on a netback basis, the price received for the volume shipped on ME2 will reflect the price at the dock, and the ME2 costs will be recorded as a transportation expense.

接著看第8頁投影片，標題為「Mariner East 2 增益」。我們很高興ME2現已投入營運。2月是我們首次在Marcus Hook碼頭提報（nominated）每日5萬桶丙烷與丁烷承諾量的月份。根據我們已簽訂的合約與目前市場定價，我們預期在碼頭端可獲得相較於Mont Belvieu定價至少每加侖0.05美元的溢價。如本頁所示，與以鐵路運往Mont Belvieu或Conway市場相比，這相當於每桶約2至4美元的增益。同時也要注意，除了以淨回收（netback）基礎計算的每桶2至4美元增益外，透過ME2運輸的貨量所取得的價格將反映碼頭端價格，而ME2成本將記錄為運輸費用。

If you think about the 52% of WTI realized pricing in the fourth quarter for our C3+ NGLs, the shift in sales point related to ME2 volume alone would have resulted in about a 7% pickup in realized pricing relative to WTI. When you include the uplift, that adds another 2% to 4% on a percent of WTI basis or north of 60% WTI. We like the position we are now in as the largest NGL producer in the U.S. with significant exposure in the international market out of Marcus Hook.

如果回想我們第四季C3+天然氣液（NGLs）實現價格相當於WTI的52%，僅就ME2貨量所帶來的銷售點轉移而言，實現價格相對WTI本可提升約7%。若再納入增益，則以WTI百分比計將再增加2%至4%，也就是超過WTI的60%。作為美國最大的NGL生產商，並透過Marcus Hook在國際市場具有顯著曝險，我們很滿意目前所處的位置。

In summary, we had a strong year in 2018, reducing our final -- financial leverage to 2.2x and we grew production nearly 900 million cubic feet equivalent per day over the last 12 months to over 3 Bcf equivalent a day, and also another accomplishment is that we announced the simplification of our midstream organization. Entering 2019, we now have a significant scale, product diversification and a strong balance sheet to manage through commodity price volatility. Our long-term strategy centers on prudent capital deployment, continued focus on full cycle rates of return and generating free cash flow, all while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

總結來說，我們在2018年表現強勁，將期末——財務槓桿降至2.2倍；過去12個月產量增加近每日9億立方英尺當量，提升至每日超過30億立方英尺當量；另一項成果是我們宣布了中游組織的簡化。進入2019年，我們已具備相當規模、產品多元化以及強健的資產負債表，以因應商品價格波動。我們的長期策略聚焦於審慎的資本配置、持續專注於全週期報酬率並創造自由現金流，同時維持強健的資產負債表。

With that, I will turn it over to Glen for his comments.

接下來我把時間交給Glen發表他的評論。

Thank you, Paul. In my comments today, I will briefly touch on the expected change to our financial reporting following the simplification transaction, highlight our fourth quarter and full year financial results and discuss our 2018 reserves. I will also provide some additional thoughts around our 2019 guidance and moderated long-term outlook and finish with a discussion around how we are positioned to succeed in the years ahead.

謝謝你，Paul。在我今天的評論中，我將簡要談及簡化交易完成後我們財務報導預期的變更，重點說明第四季與全年財務結果，並討論我們2018年的儲量。我也會就2019年指引與較為溫和的長期展望補充一些看法，最後說明我們如何布局以在未來幾年取得成功。

Let's first talk about our plans to deconsolidate AM from AR from a financial reporting perspective. Upon closing of the midstream simplification transaction, AR will no longer consolidate AM on its GAAP financial statements but will rather record its interest in AM through the equity method of accounting. We think this is a very good outcome for AR for a number of reasons. First, it will greatly improve the transparency and disclosure for AR on a standalone E&P basis. This will enable investors to more easily compare and contrast AR with its peers without having to dive into the complexities of the consolidated accounting rules. As an example, as of year-end 2018, Antero's consolidated net debt to adjusted EBITDAX was 2.7x, which is what shows up on financial data screening services such as Bloomberg or Factset. On a standalone E&P basis, which is a more appropriate measure, given AM's debt is nonrecourse to AR, Antero Resources standalone leverage was 2.2x or 0.5x lower than how it is viewed from a Street perspective. In our view, this transition will minimize future inconsistencies among analysts, investors and financial screening services on AR's leverage EBITDA capital and free cash flow, to name a few, and therefore significantly improve our transparency.

首先談談從財務報導角度，我們計畫將AM自AR的合併報表中除列（deconsolidate）。在中游簡化交易完成交割後，AR將不再在其GAAP財務報表中合併AM，而是改以權益法認列其在AM的投資。我們認為這對AR而言是非常好的結果，原因有幾點。第一，這將大幅提升AR在獨立E&P（勘探與生產）口徑下的透明度與揭露。這將使投資人更容易在不必深入合併會計規則複雜性的情況下，將AR與同業進行比較與對照。例如，截至2018年年底，Antero合併口徑的淨負債對調整後EBITDAX為2.7倍，這也是Bloomberg或Factset等財務資料篩選服務所呈現的數字。在獨立E&P口徑下——鑑於AM的債務對AR為無追索權（nonrecourse），這是更適切的衡量方式——Antero Resources的獨立槓桿為2.2倍，較市場觀點低0.5倍。我們認為，這項轉換將把未來分析師、投資人與財務篩選服務在AR槓桿、EBITDA、資本與自由現金流等（僅舉數例）方面的差異降至最低，從而顯著提升我們的透明度。

It is important to point out that AR will still own approximately 31% of new AM upon closing of the simplification transaction, assuming the cash and stocks mix is received by all parties and that we continue to believe in the benefits of integrated model and visibility and cooperation between our upstream and midstream businesses. With that said, we are excited these changes will occur from an accounting standpoint as we think it is another important step in helping to simplify the story.

需要指出的是，在簡化交易完成交割後，假設所有參與方皆選擇現金與股票的組合，我們仍將持有新AM約31%的股權；同時我們仍相信整合式模式的效益，以及我們上游與中游業務之間的可視性、協作性。話雖如此，從會計處理角度而言，我們對這些變更即將發生感到振奮，因為我們認為這是協助簡化整體敘事的另一個重要步驟。

Now moving on to the fourth quarter. During the quarter, net production averaged a record 3.213 Bcfe per day, delivering 37% year-over-year growth and 18% sequential growth, including a record 163,000 barrels a day of liquids. Liquids production increased 51% year-over-year and 25% sequentially, reflecting a continued emphasis on developing our liquids-rich acreage. Net liquids production included 12,200 barrels a day of oil, 103,000 barrels a day of C3+ NGLs and 47,000 barrels a day of ethane, all new records for Antero.

接著談第四季。本季淨產量平均達到創紀錄的每日3.213 Bcfe，年增37%、季增18%，其中液體產量亦創新高，達每日163,000桶。液體產量年增51%、季增25%，反映我們持續強調開發富含液體的礦權區。淨液體產量包含每日12,200桶原油、每日103,000桶C3+ NGLs，以及每日47,000桶乙烷，皆為Antero的新紀錄。

During the fourth quarter, Antero realized natural gas price was $3.83 per Mcf before hedges, representing a $0.19 per Mcf premium to the average NYMEX Henry Hub price. We expect to continue delivering pure leading natural gas realizations in 2019 as reflected in our guidance for natural gas realizations before hedges at a $0.15 to $0.20 per Mcf premium to Henry Hub. As we announced in December, during the fourth quarter, we did opt to monetize and restructure a portion of our natural gas portfolio for $357 million in net proceeds. This transaction allowed us to further delever while maintaining upside to the natural gas strip in 2019.

在第四季，Antero 的天然氣實現價格（未含避險）為每 Mcf 3.83 美元，較 NYMEX Henry Hub 平均價格溢價每 Mcf 0.19 美元。我們預期 2019 年將持續交付領先同業的純天然氣實現價格，如我們對天然氣實現價格（未含避險）的指引所示，將較 Henry Hub 溢價每 Mcf 0.15 至 0.20 美元。如我們於 12 月宣布，第四季我們選擇將部分天然氣投資組合變現並進行重整，淨收益為 3.57 億美元。此交易使我們在維持 2019 年天然氣期貨曲線上行潛力的同時，得以進一步去槓桿。

Our resulting hedge portfolio, as shown on Slide #9, protects 100% of 2019 and 55% to 60% of 2020 targeted natural gas production with an average floor of $3 per MMBtu. It is notable that we remain the only publicly traded U.S. producer that is 100% hedged on expected natural gas production in 2019.

我們調整後的避險投資組合（如投影片第 9 頁所示）以平均每 MMBtu 3 美元的底價，保護 2019 年目標天然氣產量的 100% 以及 2020 年目標天然氣產量的 55% 至 60%。值得注意的是，我們仍是美國唯一一家上市且對 2019 年預期天然氣產量 100% 進行避險的生產商。

Moving on to liquids pricing during the quarter. We realized an unhedged C3+ NGL price of $30.92 per barrel. As Paul previously highlighted, we expect our realized NGL prices to strengthen on a relative basis to Mont Belvieu with ME2 now in service. This is an important piece to our business in 2019 and beyond as every $5 per barrel increase in realized C3+ NGL prices results in an incremental $180 million in cash flow based on the midpoint of our 2019 C3+ NGL production guidance of 100,000 barrels per day.

接著談本季的液體定價。我們的 C3+ NGL 實現價格（未含避險）為每桶 30.92 美元。如 Paul 先前強調，隨著 ME2 現已投運，我們預期相對於 Mont Belvieu 的 NGL 實現價格將走強。這是我們 2019 年及未來業務的重要一環，因為 C3+ NGL 實現價格每桶提高 5 美元，將可帶來額外 1.8 億美元的現金流（以我們 2019 年 C3+ NGL 產量指引中值每日 100,000 桶為基礎）。

Now let me touch a bit more on our long-term outlook and what that means relative to our firm transport portfolio. As outlined on Slide #10 titled Attractive Firm Transportation Portfolio, we are targeting a 10% to 15% production growth CAGR through 2023, so over the next 5 years beyond this year. As you can see on this slide, all of our committed firm transportation's now in service. This provides us with significant visibility into our expected pricing for the foreseeable future.

現在我再多談一些我們的長期展望，以及這對我們的固定運輸（firm transport）投資組合意味著什麼。如投影片第 10 頁「具吸引力的固定運輸投資組合」所示，我們目標在 2023 年前達成 10% 至 15% 的產量成長年複合成長率（CAGR），也就是從今年起往後 5 年。如投影片所示，我們所有已承諾的固定運輸目前都已投運。這使我們對可預見未來的預期定價具有高度能見度。

For 2019, we are forecasting a $0.15 to $0.20 premium to Nymex on our gas production and expect to realize premiums to Nymex for the next several years, as you can see in green on that chart. While we are not fully utilizing the pipelines today, we expect our net marketing expense to decline from a manageable peak in 2019 of approximately $0.20 per Mcfe to less than $0.05 per Mcfe by 2022, when we expect to fill our firm transport other than the low-cost regional FT we are committed to.

就 2019 年而言，我們預估天然氣產量相對 NYMEX 將有每 Mcf 0.15 至 0.20 美元的溢價，並預期未來數年仍可實現相對 NYMEX 的溢價，如圖表中綠色部分所示。雖然目前我們尚未完全利用這些管線，但隨著未來幾年逐步填滿承諾運量（除我們承諾的低成本區域性 FT 外），我們預期淨行銷費用將自 2019 年可控的高峰約每 Mcfe 0.20 美元，下降至 2022 年低於每 Mcfe 0.05 美元。

As you can see, our net marketing expense is essentially fully offset by the benefits that this portfolio provides by delivering our volumes into premium priced regions. These estimated net marketing expenses exclude the potential for third-party mitigation that Antero has taking advantage of in prior periods by marketing third-party gas and capturing the spread. Further, our hedge portfolio mark-to-market value of approximately $600 million, which was put in place at the same time as these FT commitments, more than offsets the $500 million of projected net marketing expense.

如您所見，我們的淨行銷費用基本上可由該投資組合所帶來的效益完全抵銷，因其可將我們的銷量輸送至溢價定價區域。這些估計的淨行銷費用未包含第三方緩解（mitigation）的潛在影響；Antero 在過去期間曾透過行銷第三方天然氣並捕捉價差而加以利用。此外，我們的避險投資組合按市價評估（mark-to-market）價值約 6 億美元，該避險是在同一時間與這些 FT 承諾一併建立，其價值足以抵銷預估 5 億美元的淨行銷費用。

In summary, we expect to continue realizing premiums to NYMEX and declining net marketing expenses as we fill our commitments over the next several years, a great pathway to growth.

總結而言，隨著未來幾年我們逐步填滿承諾運量，我們預期將持續實現相對 NYMEX 的溢價並降低淨行銷費用，這是一條極佳的成長路徑。

Shifting gears a bit, I would like to discuss some of the takeaways from our 2018 reserves as highlighted on Slide #11 titled Consistent Reserve Growth and Attractive Recycle Ratio. We increased 2018 proved reserves 4% from 2017, including a 27 -- including a 22% increase in proved reserves. The PV-10 of our proved reserves at SEC pricing was $12.6 billion, and the PV-10 of our proved developed reserves was $8.4 billion. As we look ahead to the development of our reserves, it is important to point out that the future cost associated with this development is expected to be approximately $0.48 per Mcfe on a standalone basis or $0.44 on a consolidated basis. When you compare this expected development cost with our fourth quarter actual results, we are generating a very attractive unhedged recycle ratio of 3.6x. Overall, we were pleased with the growth of our 2018 reserves and look forward to continue generating additional value based on our long-term outlook.

稍微轉換一下話題，我想討論投影片第 11 頁「穩健的儲量成長與具吸引力的回收比率」所強調的 2018 年儲量重點。我們 2018 年已證實儲量較 2017 年增加 4%，其中包括已證實儲量增加 27——包括已證實儲量增加 22%。以 SEC 定價計算，我們已證實儲量的 PV-10 為 126 億美元，而已證實已開發儲量的 PV-10 為 84 億美元。展望儲量開發，重要的是指出與此開發相關的未來成本，預期在單體基礎下約為每 Mcfe 0.48 美元，或在合併基礎下為 0.44 美元。將此預期開發成本與我們第四季實際結果相比，我們產生了非常具吸引力的未避險回收比率 3.6 倍。整體而言，我們對 2018 年儲量成長感到滿意，並期待在長期展望的基礎上持續創造更多價值。

Before I conclude, I did want to mention that we recently added a natural gas fundamentals presentation to our website. Slide #12 provides the summary to this presentation. In short, we do not believe that the natural gas true-up appropriately reflects market fundamentals as strong demand combined with the sheer magnitude of the base decline are underappreciated by the market. Secondly, there are a number of technical factors that have depressed the long-term strip.

在我結束之前，我想提到我們最近在網站上新增了一份天然氣基本面簡報。投影片第 12 頁提供了該簡報的摘要。簡而言之，我們認為天然氣的「真實調整」（true-up）並未恰當反映市場基本面，因為強勁需求與基礎遞減（base decline）的龐大幅度未被市場充分重視。其次，有多項技術性因素壓抑了長期期貨曲線（strip）。

Further, in an effort to align spending with cash flow projections, both Appalachian and Permian producers are reducing 2019 capital budgets, which results in lower supply growth in 2019 with an even more meaningful supply impact in 2020. If you have not yet taken a look, we invite you to visit our website to review our macro thoughts on natural gas in more detail.

此外，為使支出與現金流預測一致，阿帕拉契亞（Appalachian）與二疊紀（Permian）生產商皆在下調 2019 年資本預算，這將導致 2019 年供給成長較低，並在 2020 年帶來更顯著的供給影響。若您尚未查看，我們誠摯邀請您造訪我們的網站，以更詳細地了解我們對天然氣宏觀面的看法。

As we enter 2019 with significant scale, low leverage and well hedged, we are well positioned to navigate through changing commodity price environments. We look forward to closing the midstream simplification in early March, which will provide Antero Resources with a minimum of $300 million in cash. We expect to remain disciplined on our 2019 development plan throughout the year, targeting the lower end of the CapEx guidance range, a plan that represents a 20% reduction expected spending levels compared to 2018.

在我們以顯著規模、低槓桿且避險完善的狀態進入 2019 年之際，我們已具備良好條件以因應商品價格環境的變化。我們期待在 3 月上旬完成中游簡化交易，這將為 Antero Resources 帶來至少 3 億美元現金。我們預期全年將在 2019 年開發計畫上維持紀律，目標落在資本支出（CapEx）指引區間的低端；該計畫代表相較 2018 年，預期支出水準降低 20%。

On the liquids front, we're excited about Mariner East 2 being placed in service, which allows us to move nearly half of our C3+ NGL production to the export market and realize stronger NGL netback pricing than what we had been receiving over the last several years. We are focused on executing over 2019 plan that we believe will deliver superior returns to shareholders over the long term while also investing within cash flow.

在液體方面，我們對 Mariner East 2 投運感到振奮，這使我們得以將近一半的 C3+ NGL 產量運往出口市場，並實現較過去數年所獲得更強的 NGL 淨回收價格（netback）。我們專注於執行我們認為可在長期為股東帶來優異報酬、同時在現金流範圍內投資的 2019 年計畫。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Paul for a few more comments.

接下來，我將把電話會議交給 Paul，再補充幾點評論。

Thank you, Glen. Before we turn it over to the operator for questions, we'd like to make a few comments regarding a recent piece of news regarding our recent $3.15 million settlement with the EPA and the Department of Justice regarding an environmental violation. We were a little disappointed that the Department of Justice press release did not clarify that the incidents occurred just short of 9 years ago in June of 2011. We do take our company reputation seriously and are extremely proud of our stellar operating track record.

謝謝你，Glen。在我們把電話交給接線員進行提問之前，我們想就一則近期新聞做幾點說明，該新聞涉及我們最近就一項環境違規與美國環保署（EPA）及司法部達成的315萬美元和解。我們對司法部的新聞稿未能澄清該事件發生在將近9年前、也就是2011年6月，感到有些失望。我們非常重視公司的聲譽，並且對我們卓越的營運紀錄深感自豪。

I'd like to turn the call over to Al Schopp, our Chief Administrative Officer and Senior Vice President, West Virginia, to provide a little bit more detail. Al?

接下來我想把電話交給我們的首席行政官兼西維吉尼亞州資深副總裁Al Schopp，請他提供更多細節。Al？

Thank you, Paul. This is Al Schopp. I would just concur with Paul in that we were a little disappointed in the characterization and the people who really did not take the time to understand the story. Back in, I would say, spring of 2011, we had hired third-party consultants to do our delineations, which is the prudent thing to do. Midstream had hired some and upstream had hired some, and it ended up at one of our sites that had a compressor pad being built and a well pad being built. And there was some disagreement about what the interpretation of ephemeral and intermittent streams and some wetlands would be back in that time. There was a lot going on in the industry at that time. You probably recollect seeing some others, XTO, Chesapeake and the like, had also gone through this characterization problem. We then -- the EPA did come out, and they clarified how they would like those to be interpreted and had cited about 9 of our sites for what they called fill into stream to wetland, which is basically dirt when you're building the construction pad or the compressor pad. And so at that time, we then took what the EPA wanted as interpretations, and we voluntarily went back through to 2009 to the very first pad that we had ever built, and we used to this more stringent set of criteria to reevaluate every site that Antero had ever built.

謝謝你，Paul。我是Al Schopp。我同意Paul的看法：我們對外界的描述方式，以及一些人沒有花時間了解事情全貌，感到有些失望。回到2011年春季左右，我們聘請了第三方顧問來進行界定（delineations），這是審慎之舉。中游部門聘了顧問，上游部門也聘了顧問，最後在我們其中一個場址，同時在建壓縮機平台（compressor pad）與井場平台（well pad）。而在當時，對於季節性（ephemeral）與間歇性（intermittent）溪流以及部分濕地的判定解釋，存在一些分歧。那段時間整個產業也發生了很多事情。你可能還記得，其他公司如XTO、Chesapeake等也曾遇到類似的界定/定性問題。之後——EPA確實來了，並澄清他們希望如何解釋這些項目，並以他們所稱的「填入溪流與濕地」（fill into stream to wetland）為由，對我們約9個場址提出指控；這基本上就是在建造施工平台或壓縮機平台時的土方。因此在那時，我們依照EPA希望的解釋方式辦理，並自願回溯到2009年、也就是我們建造的第一個平台，並用這套更嚴格的標準重新評估Antero曾建造過的每一個場址。

Now from June 30, 2011, when we met with the EPA and volunteered to go backwards, we changed our entire process, our entire delineation, consultant program to make sure that we had one consultant, EPA-approved consultants and that they certainly understood the requirements of the EPA for ephemeral intermittent streams and associated wetlands. And from that time forward, the only environmental issues we've really had in that extent have been with slips, which we have received hundreds of Army Corps of Engineers permits with all of our delineations and have had no problems since June 30, 2011.

自2011年6月30日我們與EPA會面並自願回溯檢視起，我們改變了整個流程、整個界定方式與顧問制度，確保我們採用單一顧問、且為EPA核可的顧問，並確保他們充分理解EPA對季節性與間歇性溪流及其相關濕地的要求。自那之後，我們在這方面真正遇到的環境議題主要只有滑動（slips）；我們已依據所有界定結果取得了數百份美國陸軍工兵團（Army Corps of Engineers）的許可，自2011年6月30日以來未再出現問題。

So basically, the 2 items of that, that were put out there was a $3 million penalty and then they said associated reclamation cost of $8 million. We basically believed that the reclamation cost over the next 5 years will be closer to $3 million, $3 million to $4 million. Some of the sites, literally, the estimates are $7,000. They are just -- most of these, if not all of them, will be in our normal course of reclamation of the pads. These pads are now 10 years old. We have not been able to reclaim them in the ordinary course of business because of the ongoing negotiation with the Department of Justice. So we now will be able to do that over the next 3 years. The other part of the what they call their $8 million, which we did not give them that number, is we need to determine which -- what mitigation -- we're still looking for the estimate of what mitigation would be, but we do believe it would be under $5 million. And so certainly, we believe that this whole project will be done in under the $8 million that they talked about.

基本上，對外公布的兩個項目是：300萬美元的罰款，以及他們所稱的800萬美元相關復育成本。我們基本上認為，未來5年的復育成本會更接近300萬至400萬美元。有些場址的估算金額甚至只有7,000美元。這些——其中大多數（若非全部）都會納入我們平台復育的日常作業流程。這些平台現在已經有10年歷史。由於與司法部的談判仍在進行，我們一直無法在正常營運過程中進行復育。因此我們現在將能在未來3年內完成這些工作。至於他們所稱的800萬美元中的另一部分（那個數字並非我們提供），我們需要釐清需要採取哪些——以及採取何種補償/緩解措施（mitigation）；我們仍在尋求該緩解措施的估算，但我們確實相信會低於500萬美元。因此，我們確信整個專案的總成本會低於他們所提到的800萬美元。

So those issues, unfortunately, had been mischaracterized, I would say, in a good part in the press. This is not frac waste. This is not frac dumping. This was literally dirt into a intermittent or ephemeral stream for the most part in spring of 2011, and we certainly are very proud of our environmental record here in West Virginia since that time of mid-2011.

因此，這些議題不幸地在媒體上有相當程度的錯誤定性。這不是壓裂廢棄物（frac waste）。這不是壓裂廢液傾倒（frac dumping）。這在很大程度上只是2011年春季將土方填入間歇性或季節性溪流；而自2011年年中以來，我們在西維吉尼亞州的環境紀錄一直令我們非常自豪。

Thank you, Al. And now we'll turn the call over to operator for questions.

謝謝你，Al。現在我們把電話交給接線員進行提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Subash Chandra with Guggenheim Partners.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自Guggenheim Partners的Subash Chandra。

Maybe for Paul. The marketing expense, just curious, I assume you mitigate a good amount of that unused FT capacity caused by either sub-running capacity or purchasing gas. Just curious as you look into 2019, does anything change those dynamics such as converging basis dips in the basin or slower-growth objectives from third parties?

可能問Paul。關於行銷費用，我只是好奇，我想你們會透過轉租運輸容量（FT）或購買天然氣，來抵消一部分因未使用的FT容量所造成的成本。想請教你展望2019年時，是否有任何因素會改變這些動態，例如盆地基差差異收斂、或第三方較慢的成長目標？

Yes. That's a good question, Subash. So in our a little further back past when there was pretty strong spreads, we were able to buy third-party gas, of as much as 0.5 Bcf a day and move it through our pipe and collect the spreads. And so we were offsetting a good many tens of million dollars of demand charges. At the moment, there is approximately 2.5 Bcf of available capacity really between the Mountaineer XPress pipe and Nexus, and so the basis differentials have narrowed. We do see as our -- we and our peers grow, that the pipe will begin to fill again, and so we do expect to see basis differentials and spreads improve. In the meantime, we are taking on certain third parties and moving gas around just to optimize our transportation. So right now, narrow spreads but the pipes will fill over the medium term.

是的。這是個好問題，Subash。在更早之前、當時價差相當強勁時，我們能夠購買第三方天然氣，最多約每日0.5 Bcf，並透過我們的管線運輸、賺取價差。因此我們抵銷了相當多、達數千萬美元的需求費（demand charges）。目前在Mountaineer XPress管線與Nexus之間，大約有2.5 Bcf的可用運能，因此基差差異已縮小。我們確實看到，隨著我們與同業成長，管線運能將再次逐步被填滿，因此我們預期基差差異與價差會改善。同時，我們也在承接部分第三方、調度天然氣流向，以最佳化我們的運輸安排。所以目前價差偏窄，但中期來看管線會逐步滿載。

And just to be clear, the numbers that we put out there, the net marketing numbers on a per Mcfe basis. Those include no mitigation whatsoever. So there's no assumption that we buy, sell gas or sublet capacities, Subash. So that's kind of the worst-case scenario, and I think we'll probably find some ways to mitigate that.

另外澄清一下，我們對外提供的數字，是以每Mcfe計算的淨行銷數字。那些數字完全未包含任何抵減措施。也就是說，沒有假設我們會買賣天然氣或轉租運能，Subash。所以那算是最悲觀的情境，而我認為我們大概會找到一些方法來加以抵減。

Okay, got it. No, I assumed it did. And I can go offline on this because when I sort of look at 10-K, you talk about $1 billion of annual FT charges. I think there might be some NGLs in there but -- and then I sort of divide by gross production in a year. It works out to about $1 or so. But the math could be off. So I thought that there was a fair number that was reflected in your guide. But if it isn't, that's, I guess, even more positive.

好的，了解。不，我原本以為有包含。我可以線下再討論，因為我看你們的10-K提到每年約10億美元的FT費用。我想其中可能包含一些NGL，但——然後我用年度總產量去除。算起來大約是1美元左右。但可能我算錯了。所以我以為你們的指引裡已反映了一個相當的數字。但如果沒有，那我想這就更正面了。

Yes. Subash, this is Mike. Your math is off so please give me a call, and I'll help you.

是的。Subash，我是 Mike。你的數學算錯了，請打電話給我，我會幫你。

Yes, that's [off. It was getting] something a little over $200 million in gross dollars this year for the firm that we do not utilize, so it's as simple as that. It's very straightforward.

是的，那是[不對的。它今年為公司帶來]略高於 2 億美元的總額收入，而我們並未使用，所以就這麼簡單。非常直接。

Got you. Okay, so that's the whole number. Got it. Okay. And then, Paul, you mentioned the larger pads and spud to sales improving. Could you sort of give us a frame of reference as to what it has been? What do you think this could do?

了解。好，所以那就是總數。明白了。好。然後，Paul，你提到更大的井場（pads）以及從開鑽到銷售（spud to sales）有所改善。你能否大概給我們一個參考基準，說明過去大概是什麼情況？你認為這可能帶來什麼影響？

Yes. I think with the -- for the very largest pads, if you do the drilling one by one, completing one by one, the drill out of the plugs one by one, for a 10 or 12 well pad, you can really stretch things out 200 to 300 days before you put it online. And so with what we call concurrent operations and bigger pads, we can do all 3 things at once. So we can drill on one part of the pad and then move the rig over and drill another line of wells while we move the frac spread in. It's conceivable, although we haven't done it yet. At least, I can't think of an example where we have 2 frac spreads on the same pad, one working one line of wells, one working the other. We can also do drill-outs. We have done this where we have completion drill-outs where we're drilling out plugs on different lines of wells at the same time. How much can we shorten the cycle time? I think we can shorten, let's say, at the extreme if something calculated to 300 days before it can be 180 days now of cycle time. So on these big pads, which definitely deliver a tremendous amount of production, it does take time to do it so with larger pads. And I guess I would say also that definitely there's a correlation between more stages per day and the larger the pad just because there's so much logistics staging as we deliver sand to the mixers.

是的。我認為對於最大的井場而言，如果你一口一口地鑽井、一口一口地完井，再一口一口地鑽除封隔塞（plugs），對於一個 10 口或 12 口井的井場，在投產上線前，你確實可能把時程拉長到 200 到 300 天。而透過我們所稱的並行作業（concurrent operations）以及更大的井場，我們可以同時做三件事。因此我們可以在井場的一部分鑽井，然後把鑽機移到另一邊再鑽另一排井，同時把壓裂隊（frac spread）移入。這是有可能的，雖然我們還沒做過。至少我想不出我們有在同一個井場同時有兩組壓裂隊的例子：一組在做一排井，另一組在做另一排。我們也可以同時進行鑽除作業（drill-outs）。我們確實做過：在不同排的井上同時鑽除封隔塞。週期時間能縮短多少？我認為我們可以縮短——比如在極端情況下，原本計算要 300 天的，現在週期時間可以變成 180 天。所以在這些大型井場上——它們確實能帶來非常可觀的產量——但要完成仍需要時間，尤其是在更大的井場。我想我也會說，更多的每日壓裂段數（stages per day）與更大的井場之間確實有相關性，因為在我們把砂送到混砂機（mixers）時，涉及大量的物流與備料安排。

Our next question comes from Sean Sneeden with Guggenheim.

我們的下一個問題來自 Guggenheim 的 Sean Sneeden。

You guys highlight the benefit of Marcus Hook, and there was quite a bit of uplift there. Can you help us just kind of understand the marketing dynamics of some of that? Should we be thinking that a lot of those volumes are going to Europe? Sometimes the spreads between Europe and Asia kind of jump around. How should we kind of think about that over the long term?

你們強調 Marcus Hook 的效益，而且那裡的提升幅度相當大。你能幫我們理解其中一些行銷面的動態嗎？我們是否應該認為其中很多量會運往歐洲？有時候歐洲與亞洲之間的價差會上下波動。長期來看，我們應該如何思考這件事？

Yes. So we're in our first year of marketing out of Marcus Hook and so got it divided up a couple of different ways, 2 different marketing companies that buy at the dock. And so roughly, I think you could say 1/3 is going to go to -- one of our product will go to Northwest Europe, another 1/3 will go to the far east and then the third portion will be LPG in the Atlantic Basin. So that goes to the East Coast to South America, West Coast of Africa. So we have it divided up. Certainly, there's freedom as the marketing companies take the ships off the dock or the ship loads off the dock that they can divert based on indices. But that's it. It's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 conceptually. And -- but the marketing companies do the logistics and obviously go to the best netbacks.

是的。我們今年是第一年從 Marcus Hook 進行行銷，因此我們用幾種不同方式分配，有兩家不同的行銷公司在碼頭買貨。所以大致上，我想你可以說三分之一會去——我們其中一種產品會去西北歐，另外三分之一會去遠東，第三部分則是大西洋盆地（Atlantic Basin）的 LPG。也就是運往美國東岸到南美、非洲西岸。所以我們是分配好的。當然，行銷公司把船從碼頭開走或把船貨從碼頭提走後，他們可以依據指數（indices）進行改道。但大致如此。概念上就是三分之一、三分之一、三分之一。而且——行銷公司負責物流，顯然會去追求最佳淨回收（netbacks）。

Got it, that's helpful. And I guess, can you remind me how you guys think about the kind of -- and what kind of impact there is on sort of a longer-term guidance for your assumptions around kind of once you kind of get full-scale out of Marcus Hook what that means for in-basin realizations there?

了解，這很有幫助。另外，我想請你提醒我，你們如何看待——以及對於較長期指引（guidance）中，你們在假設上大概會有什麼影響：當你們從 Marcus Hook 達到全面規模後，這對盆地內（in-basin）的實現價格（realizations）意味著什麼？

Well, that's a good question, remains to be seen. It's just -- as we've said, our current net sales price within the sales pool, if we keep the liquids at home, we know one price that it has been historically. When we export out of the dock, there's a good uptick that equates to somewhere between $4 and $8 a barrel of NGL. So we know there's a price improvement. But we'll have to see empirically as we drain the basin, as we make the liquids more scarce, the liquids that get left behind, because it's roughly half of our liquids will go to Marcus Hook and half will stay within the basin and take advantage of tighter differentials. We'll just see, but we don't have a track record yet as to all the exporting out of Marcus Hook, what that will do to the net sales price within the basin. But should improve it, obviously.

嗯，這是個好問題，還有待觀察。就是——如我們所說，在銷售池（sales pool）內，我們目前的淨銷售價格，如果把液體留在本地，我們知道它歷史上大概是什麼價格。當我們從碼頭出口時，會有不錯的上升幅度，約相當於每桶 NGL 增加 4 到 8 美元。所以我們知道價格會改善。但我們必須用實際數據來看：當我們把盆地的液體抽走、讓液體變得更稀缺時，留在盆地內的液體會如何變化；因為大約一半的液體會去 Marcus Hook，另一半會留在盆地內，並受益於更緊的價差（differentials）。我們只能再觀察，但目前還沒有完整的歷史紀錄能說明：從 Marcus Hook 全面出口後，會如何影響盆地內的淨銷售價格。但顯然應該會改善。

Right, yes. And just remind us, you haven't actually assumed any benefit in some of your longer-term guidance. Is that how should we think about it for kind of what remains in-basin?

對，是的。再提醒一下，你們其實在某些長期指引中並沒有假設任何效益。那我們應該如何看待留在盆地內的那部分？

That's exactly right. So we've made assumptions on what gets exported, but we've not made any assumptions on an improvement on what gets left behind.

完全正確。所以我們對出口的部分做了假設，但對留在盆地內的部分價格改善並沒有做任何假設。

Yes, and just to follow up on that. I mean, we think the basin is producing about 400,000 barrels a day of C3+ NGL. So when you pull upwards of 100,000, maybe 145,000 barrels a day on the initial ME2 line out of the basin, that should have a positive impact. That will just improve over time as ME2 gets fully up and running. It gets to its full capacity and more stable to be drawing to the coast and -- or to the water and shipped.

是的，補充追問一下。我的意思是，我們認為該盆地每天大約生產 40 萬桶的 C3+ NGL。因此，當你透過最初的 ME2 管線把每天超過 10 萬桶、也許 14.5 萬桶從盆地抽走時，應該會帶來正面影響。隨著 ME2 全面啟動並運轉，這種影響會隨時間改善。當它達到滿載能力、運行更穩定時，就能更穩定地把量拉到海岸——或到水邊——並裝船運出。

Our next question comes from Holly Stewart with Scotia Howard & Weil.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scotia Howard & Weil 的 Holly Stewart。

Maybe, Glenn, just following up on that last ME2 comment. How much are you flowing today? And when do you expect to reach your full capacity on ME2?

Glenn，或許接續你剛才對 ME2 的評論追問一下。你們今天的輸送量是多少？你們預期何時能在 ME2 達到滿載能力？

Yes, I believe we are in the $40,000 -- 40,000 barrel a day plus today and probably approaching 50,000 barrels on some days. So we're close to our firm transport capacity on ME2 now.

是的，我相信我們目前在每天 40,000 桶以上，今天大概也是 40,000 桶以上，而且在某些日子可能接近 50,000 桶。所以我們現在在 ME2 上已經接近我們的確定運輸能力上限。

And is there availability for you to do more?

那你們是否還有餘裕可以做更多？

Could be in short term, I think, it's possible depending on how quickly other shippers step up and use their capacity. And then as we talked about a number of times, I think -- we think by year-end anyway that the energy transfer at Sunoco will have this fully opened to 20-inch all the way. Then the capacity steps up from 145,000 barrels a day to 275,000 barrels a day, hopefully, by year-end this year, maybe sooner.

我認為短期內可能有，這取決於其他託運人多快提高並使用他們的運能。然後如同我們多次談到的，我想——我們認為無論如何到年底，Sunoco 的 Energy Transfer 會把這條管線全線開通到 20 吋。屆時運能將從每天 145,000 桶提升到每天 275,000 桶，希望在今年年底前完成，也可能更早。

And with that, Holly, we'd have certain tranches that we can exercise or overflow rights. So we could move more should we decide to.

而且在那之後，Holly，我們會有一些分段（tranches）可以行使，或是溢流權利（overflow rights）。所以如果我們決定要的話，我們可以運更多。

Great. That's a good color. Maybe just kind of looking at this Slide 4, you highlight a lot of company records versus where you ended up in 4Q. Just thinking about what's in the guidance, implied in the guidance right now and maybe loos like even on the completion stages per day, your record is almost twice what you did in 4Q. So can you just maybe talk through a few of those items and what's implied in the guidance currently and just kind of a bridging that gap for us?

很好。這些補充資訊很有幫助。也許就看一下第 4 張投影片，你們強調了很多公司紀錄，相較於你們在第四季的結果。我在想目前指引中所隱含的內容，甚至看起來在每日完井階段數（completion stages per day）方面，你們的紀錄幾乎是第四季的兩倍。所以你能否談談其中幾個項目、目前指引所隱含的假設，以及幫我們把這個差距串起來？

Yes. Holly, thanks. In the guidance, we're assuming 5.5 stages a day, I believe, right?

是的。Holly，謝謝。在指引裡，我們假設每天 5.5 個階段，我記得是這樣，對嗎？

5.2.

5.2。

5.2. Excuse me, 5.25 a day in the guidance. So we feel good about being able to beat that. And I think if you can add another stage a day, that saves about $200,000 per well. So if we can get that 5.25 to 6.25 throughout the year, then that'd save another $200,000 per well.

5.2。抱歉，指引裡是每天 5.25。所以我們對能夠超越這個數字很有信心。而且我認為如果你每天能多增加一個階段，每口井大約可以節省 200,000 美元。所以如果我們能在全年把 5.25 提升到 6.25，那麼每口井就能再省 200,000 美元。

Got it. That's a good color. And then maybe finally, just sort of a little higher level, Paul, on the last, I guess, few presentations. You've taken a bit of a more bullish stance on gas. Kind of curious, how you're balancing this versus the out-year hedge book?

了解。這些補充資訊很有幫助。最後也許從更高層次來看，Paul，在我想最近幾次簡報中，你對天然氣的看法變得更偏多。我有點好奇，你如何在這點與較遠年度的避險部位之間取得平衡？

Well, the out-year hedge book, we're certainly looking at beyond 2020. We still have some volumes hedged there. We, like so many others, watch pretty closely rig count in the different basins. We're watching production by the different basins. We're seeing -- we've seen things level off a little bit over the last few months. Is that just winter conditions? But as our natural gas piece that Glen and the finance department put out there, that there's big decline on the nation's reserve base and it has to be replaced, of course, and it also has to meet the new demand to go from the mid-80s to the low-90s Bcf a day and that's going to take drilling. And so many of the plays, about half of the plays will be dragged along by liquids, maybe it's scoop stack, Permian and NGL producers such as ourselves. But it's really the dry gas plays that are vulnerable and can they make up the other half of the difference in not only overcoming the decline but meeting the growth. So we're seeing it. We pride ourselves in understanding a lot of different plays and how much inventory might remain and the quality of what people are drilling, and usually quality declines as people drill up their inventory. So with that, we're watching production itself plus the buildup in each of the different basins, and we're feeling that there's a reason that prices will need to rise to encourage more drilling and more production. So with that, we're watching the possibility of hedging in the outer years but looking for just which way to do it and the opportunities that we see out there.

嗯，較遠年度的避險部位，我們當然是在看 2020 年以後。我們在那裡仍有一些量已做避險。我們和許多其他人一樣，非常密切地關注不同盆地的鑽機數。我們也在看各個盆地的產量。我們看到——過去幾個月情況似乎稍微趨於平穩。這只是冬季因素嗎？但正如 Glen 和財務部門提出的天然氣部分所說，全國儲量基礎存在很大的遞減，當然必須補回來，而且還必須滿足新增需求，讓需求從每天 80 多 Bcf 提升到 90 出頭 Bcf，這需要鑽井。因此在許多區塊中，大約有一半會被液體（liquids）帶動，可能是 SCOOP/STACK、Permian，以及像我們這樣的 NGL 生產商。但真正脆弱的是乾氣（dry gas）區塊——它們能否補上另一半的差距，不僅要抵消遞減，還要滿足成長。所以我們看得到這個趨勢。我們以理解許多不同區塊為傲，包括可能剩下多少庫存（inventory）以及人們正在鑽探的品質；通常當人們把庫存鑽得越多，品質就會下降。因此，我們在觀察實際產量，以及各個盆地的增長情況，我們認為價格需要上升才有理由鼓勵更多鑽井與更多產量。所以基於此，我們也在觀察在較遠年度進行避險的可能性，但同時在尋找該用什麼方式，以及我們在市場上看到的機會。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Michael Kennedy for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想把電話會議交回給 Michael Kennedy 先生，請他做結語。

Thank you for joining us on our call today. If there are any further questions, please feel free to reach out to us. Thanks, again.

感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。如果還有任何進一步問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。再次感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報，現在您可以掛線。