Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Antero Resources First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎收聽 Antero Resources 2018 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。（接線員指示）請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would like to turn the conference over to Michael Kennedy, Senior VP, Finance. Please go ahead, sir.

我想將會議交給資深副總裁（財務）Michael Kennedy。先生，請開始。

Thank you for joining us for Antero's First Quarter 2018 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we've provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

感謝各位參加 Antero 2018 年第一季投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，接著開放問答。我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中一併檢視。

Before we start our comments, I would like to first remind you that during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在開始發言之前，我想先提醒各位，本次電話會議中 Antero 管理層將作出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。實際結果與表現可能與此類陳述所表達、暗示或預測者存在重大差異。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures including reconciliations for the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議也可能包含某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿，以取得關於此類衡量指標的重要揭露資訊，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。

Before I turn it over to Paul, I also quickly want to provide a brief update on the special committees that were assembled after soliciting feedback from our largest shareholders. As previously announced, we formed a special committee consisting of independent directors to evaluate the merits of potential measures to enhance Antero's valuation.

在我把時間交給 Paul 之前，我也想快速就我們在徵詢最大股東意見後所成立的特別委員會提供簡要更新。如先前所公告，我們成立了一個由獨立董事組成的特別委員會，以評估可能提升 Antero 估值之各項措施的可行性與效益。

In conjunction with this review, AM and AMGP have also established special committees. I would like to point out that the independent directors on the 3 special committees are not directors associated with private equity. All 3 special committees have hired financial and legal advisers and are working diligently to evaluate a range of potential measures. There is no definitive timetable for completion of this evaluation and there can be no assurances that any initiatives will be announced or completed in the future. As I hope you can understand, because of the nature of this process, we will not be able to address any questions related to it or discuss it further during today's call.

配合此項檢視，AM 與 AMGP 也已成立特別委員會。我想指出，這 3 個特別委員會中的獨立董事，並非與私募股權相關之董事。3 個特別委員會皆已聘請財務與法律顧問，並正積極評估一系列可能的措施。此項評估完成並無明確時間表，且無法保證未來將宣布或完成任何倡議或措施。希望各位能理解，基於此流程的性質，我們將無法在今天的電話會議中回應任何與此相關的問題，亦不會進一步討論。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Paul Rady，以及總裁兼財務長 Glen Warren。

I'll now turn the call over to Paul.

我現在把電話交給 Paul。

Thank you, Mike, and thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to highlight our operational execution during the quarter, including the significant efficiencies and the company records that we continue to achieve, and discuss how we can build on this momentum through further innovations. I will also provide an update on the 2018 completion schedule, including a few notable payouts that we expect to place in service in the next -- in the second quarter. Glen will then highlight several significant first quarter achievements, including our strong cash flow growth and the continued reductions in our leverage metrics.

謝謝你，Mike，也感謝各位今天收聽。在我的發言中，我將重點說明本季的營運執行成果，包括我們持續達成的顯著效率提升與公司紀錄，並討論如何透過進一步創新延續這股動能。我也將更新 2018 年完井時程，包括幾項值得注意、我們預期將在下一個——第二季投入使用的成果。接著 Glen 將重點說明第一季的幾項重要成就，包括強勁的現金流成長以及槓桿指標的持續下降。

First and foremost, we had an exceptional quarter on the operational front. Despite difficult operating conditions, processing outages and severe weather, Antero delivered record production volumes. The ability to deliver on our production targets was driven by our operational execution as illustrated on Slide 3, titled First Quarter 2018 Drilling and Completion Execution, as we have continued building momentum from 2017 with respect to drilling and completion efficiencies.

首先也是最重要的，我們在營運面交出非常出色的一季。儘管面臨艱困的作業條件、處理設施停機以及惡劣天候，Antero 仍創下產量新高。我們能夠達成產量目標，主要來自營運執行力；如第 3 張投影片「2018 年第一季鑽井與完井執行」所示，我們在鑽井與完井效率方面延續 2017 年的動能並持續提升。

Starting on the top left portion of this slide. In the Marcellus, we improved our average drilling days to 11.5 days from spud to TD, which represents a 4% reduction from 2017 average levels. Completion stages per day in the Marcellus averaged 4.3 stages per day for the full quarter, but increased to a company record of 5.1 stages per day in the month of March as the inclement winter weather have subsided. This is particularly impressive given that we increased proppant loading per foot in the Marcellus by 23% to over 2,000 pounds a foot, and increased lateral length by some 8% as compared to year-ago levels.

先看這張投影片左上角。在 Marcellus，我們將平均鑽井天數改善至從開鑽（spud）到達終孔深度（TD）平均 11.5 天，較 2017 年平均水準降低 4%。Marcellus 的完井每日段數（stages per day）在整個季度平均為 4.3 段/日，但隨著嚴冬惡劣天候緩解，3 月提升至公司紀錄的 5.1 段/日。這尤其令人印象深刻，因為我們在 Marcellus 將每英尺支撐劑（proppant）用量提高 23% 至每英尺超過 2,000 磅，且相較去年同期將水平段長度提高約 8%。

Now let's quantify what these efficiencies mean from a million-dollar-per-well standpoint. While our current budget assumes 4.5 completion stages per day, our ability to sustain higher stages per day during 2018 would not only provide incremental well cost savings relative to our current plan, but would also bring forward production resulting in less capital needed to achieve our production targets. An increase from 4.5 to 5.5 stages per day represent savings of approximately $90,000 per well. This is just one of many examples of why we are confident in our ability to mitigate any inflationary pressures with continued efficiency improvements.

現在讓我們以「每口井百萬美元」的角度量化這些效率的意義。雖然我們目前的預算假設為每日 4.5 個完井段數，但若我們在 2018 年能維持更高的每日段數，不僅可相對於現行計畫帶來額外的單井成本節省，也能提前產量、因此達成產量目標所需的資本更少。每日段數由 4.5 提升至 5.5，約可節省每口井 9 萬美元。這只是眾多例子之一，說明我們有信心透過持續的效率改善來抵銷任何通膨壓力。

In addition, during the quarter, Antero completed its longest laterals to date with 1 well in the Marcellus at nearly 14,400 feet and 4 wells in the Utica at 17,400 feet each. As we continue to increase our laterals while making strides in drilling days and stages per day, we expect to achieve further efficiencies.

此外，本季 Antero 完成了迄今最長的水平段：Marcellus 有 1 口井接近 14,400 英尺；Utica 則有 4 口井各為 17,400 英尺。隨著我們持續拉長水平段，同時在鑽井天數與每日段數方面取得進展，我們預期將達成更多效率提升。

Turning to Slide 4. We have also achieved multiple Marcellus drilling records recently. 7 of our top 15 lateral footage days have occurred this year, 2018. On Slide #5, titled, Operating Evolution Continues, our well cost by chart shows that nearly 50% of our well costs are locked in through 2019, with our completion crews fully contracted in the majority of our rigs contracted through that time period. Although our forecast assumes a 5% cost increase in consumables, primarily sand and gel, we expect to offset service cost inflation with continued efficiency improvements, and we remain on track to deliver the capital efficiencies outlined at our Analyst Day.

接著看第 4 張投影片。我們近期也創下多項 Marcellus 鑽井紀錄。我們前 15 名的水平段進尺日數中，有 7 項發生在今年 2018 年。第 5 張投影片「營運演進持續」中，我們的單井成本圖表顯示，至 2019 年我們約有近 50% 的單井成本已鎖定，且完井團隊已全數簽約、我們多數鑽機也已簽約至該期間。雖然我們的預測假設耗材成本上升 5%，主要為砂與膠（gel），但我們預期可透過持續的效率改善抵銷服務成本通膨，並仍按計畫達成我們在分析師日所提出的資本效率目標。

Now let's shift to the pad level. The company is preparing to begin production on its 2 largest Marcellus pads to date by lateral footage. One is a 12-well pad that has a combined total lateral footage of 120,000 lateral feet, and the other pad is also a 12-well pad that has 106,000 lateral feet. We expect to place the sales of 24 wells on these 2 pads within this month with expected production at a combined gross constrained rate of approximately 350 million to 400 million cubic feet equivalent per day, including 20,000 barrels per day of liquids.

現在把焦點轉到井場（pad）層級。公司正準備在水平段總長度方面，啟動迄今最大的兩個 Marcellus 井場投產。其中一個為 12 口井井場，合計水平段總長 120,000 英尺；另一個井場同樣為 12 口井，水平段總長 106,000 英尺。我們預期在本月內讓這兩個井場的 24 口井開始銷售（place to sales），其合計預期產量在受限（constrained）的總毛量（gross）下約為每日 3.5 億至 4 億立方英尺當量（cfe），其中包含每日 20,000 桶液體。

In the Utica, Antero turned to sales 10 wells in December 2017 on 2 adjacent pads that have produced over 24 Bcf of dry gas already or 20 million cubic feet per day per well and they remain at flat production after about 130 days online. These were the first wells completed by Antero in the Ohio Utica dry gas regime, and they were brought online in conjunction with the Rover pipeline Phase 1B in-service date, which was at the end of last year. We are very encouraged by the outperformance on this pad and the implications for our dry gas Utica development in the coming years.

在 Utica，Antero 於 2017 年 12 月在兩個相鄰井場讓 10 口井開始銷售，迄今已生產超過 240 億立方英尺（Bcf）的乾氣，或每口井每日 2,000 萬立方英尺，且上線約 130 天後仍維持平穩產量。這些是 Antero 在俄亥俄州 Utica 乾氣區帶完成的首批井，並配合 Rover 管線第一期 1B 段於去年底投運的時點上線。我們對該井場的超預期表現，以及其對未來數年 Utica 乾氣開發的意涵，感到非常振奮。

Now to briefly touch on our 2018 well completion plan. As discussed in the press release, we completed 21 wells over the first quarter, all on our liquids-rich acreage, many of which came online in late March. During the second quarter, we plan to complete 44 wells, all of which will be completed on our liquids-rich acreage. This increase in sequential completion activity with a focus on liquids keeps us on track to achieve our full year production guidance of 2.7 Bcf equivalent per day in total, including 130,000 barrels a day of liquids.

最後簡要談談我們 2018 年的完井計畫。如新聞稿所述，我們在第一季完成 21 口井，全部位於富含液體的區塊，其中許多在 3 月下旬上線。第二季我們計畫完成 44 口井，亦全部在富含液體的區塊完井。此一連續季度完井活動的增加，並聚焦於液體，使我們仍按計畫達成全年產量指引：總計每日 27 億立方英尺當量（Bcf equivalent），其中包含每日 130,000 桶液體。

With that, I will turn it over to Glen for his comments.

接下來，我將把時間交給Glen，請他發表評論。

Good morning. Thanks, Paul. Let me begin with some of the key financial achievements from the quarter. Despite severe winter weather that hit the Northeast in early January, which forced us to shut in a portion of our production temporarily due to processing plant outages, a downstream pipeline outage, production averaged a record 2.38 Bcfe per day for the quarter, an 11% year-over-year increase, including approximately 103,000 barrels a day of liquids.

各位早安。謝謝你，Paul。讓我先從本季幾項關鍵的財務成果談起。儘管1月初東北部遭遇嚴峻冬季天候，因處理廠停機以及下游管線中斷，迫使我們暫時關閉部分產量，本季平均產量仍創下每日2.38 Bcfe的紀錄，年增11%，其中液體約為每日103,000桶。

Liquids production included 5,900 barrels a day of oil, 63,300 barrels a day of C3+ NGLs, and 33,700 barrels a day of ethane. A sequential decline in liquids volumes in the quarter was related to processing downtime while we expect the sequential increase in liquids production in the second quarter.

液體產量包括每日5,900桶原油、每日63,300桶C3+ NGL，以及每日33,700桶乙烷。本季液體量的季比下滑與處理設施停機時間有關；我們預期第二季液體產量將季比增加。

Moving on to realized pricing during the first quarter. We realized $3.14 per Mcf, before hedges, on our natural gas production during the quarter, a $0.14 per Mcf premium to the average NYMEX Henry Hub price. The first quarter performance, once again, illustrated the strategic advantage of a diverse firm transformation portfolio that allows us the optionality to move virtually all of our gas to premium markets.

接著談第一季的實現價格。我們本季天然氣產量在避險前的實現價格為每Mcf 3.14美元，較NYMEX Henry Hub平均價格溢價每Mcf 0.14美元。第一季的表現再次展現多元且具約束力的轉運（firm transportation）組合所帶來的策略優勢，使我們幾乎可選擇性地將所有天然氣運往溢價市場。

Turning to Slide #6, titled, Appalachia Peer Pre-Hedge Natural Gas Realizations, you can see that we have been a peer leader in natural gas price realizations for the past 5 years. Additionally, the first quarter represented the 15th consecutive quarter in which AR's all-in natural gas price realizations, exceeded NYMEX Henry Hub prices. For reference, since AR's IPO in 2013, AR has realized natural gas prices, including hedges above $3.50 per Mcf in all 19 quarters excluding the impact of the WGL breach in the third quarter of 2017. Given our attractive hedge book, which includes being 100% hedged at $3.50 per Mcf in both 2018 and 2019, combined with our large FT portfolio, we expect to continue delivering superior price realizations going forward.

請看第6頁投影片，標題為「Appalachia同業避險前天然氣實現價格」。你可以看到，過去5年我們在天然氣實現價格方面一直領先同業。此外，第一季是AR連續第15個季度，其整體天然氣實現價格高於NYMEX Henry Hub價格。供參考，自AR於2013年IPO以來，除2017年第三季WGL違約事件影響外，在其餘19個季度中，AR包含避險在內的天然氣實現價格皆高於每Mcf 3.50美元。鑑於我們具吸引力的避險部位（2018與2019年皆以每Mcf 3.50美元達到100%避險），再加上龐大的FT組合，我們預期未來仍將持續交出優於同業的實現價格。

Our approach of managing with a long-term focus, which inevitably includes oil and gas price troughs and transportation bottlenecks has served us well as you can see from our consistency in generating attractive margins. As a reminder, we did not have any material pricing impacts this quarter from contractual disputes that we discussed during our last earnings call and do not expect any material impacts to our realizations from these disputes going forward as we have largely mitigated the volume exposure.

我們以長期為導向的管理方式——其中不可避免會遇到油氣價格低谷與運輸瓶頸——一直以來都讓我們受益良多，從我們穩定創造具吸引力的利潤率即可看出。提醒各位，本季我們未受到上次財報電話會議所提及之合約爭議的任何重大定價影響；且由於我們已大幅降低量的曝險，預期未來這些爭議也不會對我們的實現價格造成重大影響。

Due to better than anticipated pricing, we now expect natural gas price realizations at the high end of our prior guidance of a premium to NYMEX of 0 to $0.05 per Mcf.

由於定價優於先前預期，我們目前預期天然氣實現價格將落在先前指引區間的高端，即相對NYMEX溢價每Mcf 0至0.05美元。

Moving on to liquids pricing for the quarter. We realized an unhedged C3+ NGL price of $36.38 per barrel or 58% of NYMEX WTI. While NGL prices do not keep up with the rise in WTI prices during the quarter, on an absolute basis, NGL prices remained consistent with expectations and represented a 23% increase from a year ago.

接著談本季液體定價。我們C3+ NGL在未避險下的實現價格為每桶36.38美元，約為NYMEX WTI的58%。雖然本季NGL價格未能跟上WTI價格的上漲，但就絕對價格而言，NGL價格符合預期，且較去年同期增加23%。

For the remainder of 2018, we are trending toward the low end of our guidance range of 62.5% to 67.5% of WTI. However, as shown on Slide #7, propane fundamentals remained strong, with days of supply at the lowest level in 5 years and inventory 24% below the 5-year average. As you can see, the Mont Belvieu C3 or propane price is $0.82 a gallon for the remainder of the year, approaching $0.83 this morning. When combined with the additional liquids transport capacity coming during the second half of 2018 at Mariner East 2, we are confident in the continuation of attractive liquids pricing.

就2018年剩餘期間而言，我們的走勢偏向指引區間（WTI的62.5%至67.5%）的低端。然而，如第7頁投影片所示，丙烷基本面仍然強勁，供應天數處於5年來最低水準，庫存較5年平均低24%。如你所見，Mont Belvieu C3（丙烷）在今年剩餘期間的價格為每加侖0.82美元，今早接近0.83美元。再加上2018年下半年Mariner East 2將帶來額外的液體運輸能力，我們對於液體定價持續維持吸引力充滿信心。

Importantly, while trending towards the low end of our guidance relative to WTI oil, absolute C3+ pricing is relatively unchanged from year-end 2017 and continues to be attractive relative to the year-ago level as illustrated on Slide #8 titled C3+ NGLs: Price Improvement.

重要的是，雖然相對WTI原油的比率走向指引低端，但C3+的絕對價格相較2017年底變化不大，且相對去年同期仍具吸引力，如第8頁投影片「C3+ NGL：價格改善」所示。

Moving forward, we believe that our firm transportation and hedge book will continue to be significant competitive advantages for Antero, as uncertainty around both Henry Hub gas pricing in Northeast bases is likely to continue.

展望未來，我們相信我們的固定運輸（firm transportation）與避險部位將持續成為Antero的重要競爭優勢，因為對於Henry Hub天然氣定價以及東北部基差的不確定性很可能仍將延續。

As a reminder, as shown on Slide #9 for 2018 and 2019, assuming the midpoint of production targets, we are 100% hedged at an average price of $3.50 per MMBtu in both years, representing a premium of $0.70 per MMBtu, or just over 25% above current strip pricing.

提醒各位，如第9頁投影片所示，針對2018與2019年，在假設產量目標取中位數的情況下，我們兩年皆以平均每MMBtu 3.50美元達到100%避險，較目前遠期曲線（strip）定價溢價每MMBtu 0.70美元，或高出逾25%。

Next, I want to touch on the substantial marketing gain we reported this quarter. As highlighted on the Slide #10 titled, A Paired Trade - Hedges Support Firm Commitments. As previously stated during the last earnings release, we had expected a net marketing gain for the first quarter. During periods of severe cold weather in January, we were able to resell purchased gas on the East Coast at a large premium. During the first quarter, this resulted in net marketing gain of $59 million or $0.27 per Mcfe. Due to the January gas marketing gains, we previously reduced our net marketing expense guidance for the full year to $0.10 to $0.125 per Mcfe from $0.10 to $0.15 per Mcfe previously.

接下來，我想談談我們本季所報告的可觀行銷收益。如第10頁投影片所強調，標題為「配對交易——避險支撐固定承諾」。如同我們在上次財報發布時所述，我們原本就預期第一季會有淨行銷收益。在1月嚴寒期間，我們能以大幅溢價在美東轉售所購買的天然氣。第一季因此產生淨行銷收益5,900萬美元，或每Mcfe 0.27美元。由於1月天然氣行銷收益，我們先前已將全年淨行銷費用指引由每Mcfe 0.10至0.15美元，下修至每Mcfe 0.10至0.125美元。

Now to briefly touch on some financial highlights from the quarter. We generated stand-alone adjusted EBITDAX of $488 million, including the marketing gain of 31% increase sequentially and a 52% increase over the year-ago period. Stand-alone adjusted operating cash flow was $433 million, 66% higher than the year-ago period.

接著簡要說明本季部分財務重點。我們產生單體（stand-alone）調整後EBITDAX為4.88億美元，其中包含行銷收益；較前一季增加31%，較去年同期增加52%。單體調整後營運現金流為4.33億美元，較去年同期高出66%。

Slide #11 highlights our historical leadership when comparing stand-alone EBITDAX margin over the last 5 years to our Appalachia peer group. Back to our integrated long-term strategy, Antero continues to deliver peer-leading margins year after year due to our strong hedge book, large firm transportation portfolio to premium markets and increasing exposure to liquids prices. We expect this trend to continue.

第11頁投影片突顯了我們在過去5年中，與Appalachia同業相比之單體EBITDAX利潤率的歷史領先地位。回到我們整合式的長期策略，Antero憑藉強勁的避險部位、通往溢價市場的大型固定運輸組合，以及對液體價格曝險的提升，年復一年持續交出同業領先的利潤率。我們預期此趨勢將延續。

In summary, we have reached an important inflection point for our company, and our first quarter results showcased the significant momentum we have toward executing on our long-term plan outlined at this year's Analyst Day in January. Management remains dedicated to execution and delivering on this long-term plan. We continue to focus on our capital efficient Marcellus liquids-rich inventory and a declining leverage profile, which as you can see on Slide #12, is at the lowest level in our history at 2.5x on a stand-alone basis.

總結來說，我們公司已到達一個重要的轉折點，而第一季的結果展現了我們在執行今年1月分析師日所提出之長期計畫方面的強勁動能。管理團隊仍致力於落實執行並交付這項長期計畫。我們持續聚焦於資本效率高的Marcellus富液庫存，以及下降的槓桿水準；如第12頁投影片所示，在單體基礎下槓桿已降至我們歷史最低的2.5倍。

Leverage is projected to decline further towards 2.0x at the end of this year. As shown on Slide #13 titled, Antero Profile to Drive Multiple Expansion, this momentum will place Antero in an elite group of just 7 E&P companies that have scale, double-digit production growth, low leverage and generate free cash flow. All of them trade at premium multiple valuations relative to Antero.

預期槓桿將在今年年底進一步下降至接近2.0倍。如第13頁投影片「Antero概況推動估值倍數擴張」所示，這股動能將使Antero躋身僅有7家兼具規模、兩位數產量成長、低槓桿並能產生自由現金流的E&P公司之菁英行列。而這些公司相較Antero皆以較高的估值倍數交易。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我將把電話會議交給主持人，進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Subash Chandra of Guggenheim.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自 Guggenheim 的 Subash Chandra。

Paul, your dry gas commentary -- the dry gas commentary in the Utica, is there a possibility that it plays a bigger role in the program, I think it was maybe 1/4 of the drilling program, 20% of the drilling program this year, but are you thinking of waiting that a bit more based on the results you've seen? And if so, does it add to the program? Or does it displace some of your program?

Paul，關於你對乾氣的評論——在 Utica 的乾氣評論，是否有可能它在整體計畫中扮演更重要的角色？我想今年它可能約占鑽井計畫的 1/4、也就是 20% 左右，但基於你看到的結果，你是否考慮再多等一下、或提高一些比重？如果是，這會增加整體計畫規模嗎？還是會排擠你原本計畫中的其他部分？

Yes, it's a good question. We're pleased with the results there in the Utica, but -- and still -- and we're saying we're not expanding our CapEx program. We're still at the same spot, and in fact, probably Utica is going to be 15% to 20%. So even though these are outstanding wells, the economics on our Marcellus liquids wells are even stronger. So really, no -- no divergence from the path, like the Utica, but it still plays a smaller role. And we're not looking to expand the CapEx, but just to keep it the same and keep our focus mostly on Marcellus liquids.

是的，這是個好問題。我們對 Utica 的結果感到滿意，但——同時——我們也一直在說我們不會擴大資本支出（CapEx）計畫。我們仍維持在同一個水準；事實上，Utica 可能會是 15% 到 20%。所以即便這些井非常出色，我們在 Marcellus 液體井的經濟性更強。因此真的不會——不會偏離既定路徑；Utica 仍會扮演較小的角色。我們也不打算擴大 CapEx，而是維持不變，並把重點主要放在 Marcellus 液體。

Okay. Now one of your peers in Appalachia, they're contemplating a carveout of formations that have low NPV in their inventory. Is that something that you might be open to and -- or let's say, even this Utica play, which I think with Rover, has got some more attention, has been fairly flat? A play like that might be worth more to someone else. Any of those notions?

了解。現在你們在 Appalachia 的某個同業，他們正在考慮把庫存中 NPV 較低的地層做 carveout（切割/分拆）。這是你們可能會考慮的事情嗎？以及——或者說，甚至像這個 Utica 盤面，我想隨著 Rover 管線，它受到更多關注，但一直相當平坦？像這樣的盤面可能對其他人更有價值。你們有這類想法嗎？

We -- yes, we do have those notions from time to time, Subash. But right now, we're still pretty focused. We're aware that we could perhaps do that. But we do like that Utica and don't like to effectively farm it out in Drilco, or whatever. So we do have plans for the Utica, and that is good precious inventory. So not looking to let go of it. You're right, there could be some moving forward of PV but what would be gained by moving forward, might be lost by sharing it with somebody else.

我們——是的，Subash，我們確實會不時有這類想法。但目前我們仍相當聚焦。我們知道或許可以這麼做。但我們確實喜歡 Utica，也不希望實質上把它 farm out（分出作業權/讓渡部分權益）到 Drilco 或其他什麼安排。我們對 Utica 有計畫，那是很珍貴的庫存。因此不打算放手。你說得對，往前移動 PV（現值）可能會有一些推進，但透過提前實現所獲得的，可能會因為要與他人分享而失去。

Got you, okay. In the long laterals, everyone sort of making that case, and you guys know drilling inside and out. One of the perspectives we've heard on long laterals is that there is a loss of efficiency, maybe it's compensated by lower marginal costs. But how do you feel about preserving the Bcf per 1,000 as you push these things beyond 3 miles or so, from toe-heel contributions, et cetera?

明白，好的。關於長水平段（long laterals），大家都在提出這個論點，而你們對鑽井非常熟悉。我們聽到的一個觀點是，長水平段會有一些效率損失，可能由較低的邊際成本來補償。但當你們把這些水平段推到 3 英里以上時，對於維持每 1,000 英尺的 Bcf（十億立方英尺）產量，你們怎麼看？例如 toe-heel（井趾到井跟）貢獻等因素。

Yes, it's a good question. We feel that we get equal production from the toe as from the heel and everywhere in between. As we drilled longer laterals, of course, we're watching it, and we flat it up in EUR per 1,000 as we go out the curve. And if anything, our longer laterals, now they are in excellent areas but they're above our type curves. So we're really not seeing any loss going out longer so far. This is particularly true in the Marcellus, where we've gone out -- our longest completions are in the 14,000 to 14,200 range. In terms of frac efficiency for us, as we frac the toe, we're able to break that down. We have plenty of horsepower on the surface to break it down and pump away. There's plenty of pressure there, don't see anywhere near the friction loss, so we can break down those distant stages. So really still feel good about 14,000-plus on our drilling schedule for this year, and next we are getting longer. We're going out to 15,000 to 16,000, even 17,000 in the Marcellus in some places, and we feel good about it. Truly, we really think that the efficiencies are there, and we're not going to see a loss like as is reported in some of the other plays.

是的，這是個好問題。我們認為井趾（toe）的產量與井跟（heel）相同，中間各段也一樣。當我們鑽更長的水平段時，當然會持續觀察；而且隨著沿著曲線往外延伸，我們在每 1,000 英尺的 EUR（最終可採儲量）上把它拉平。若真要說，我們較長的水平段——當然它們位於非常好的區域——其表現高於我們的 type curves（典型曲線）。所以到目前為止，我們真的沒有看到延伸更長帶來任何損失。這在 Marcellus 尤其明顯；我們最長的完井在 14,000 到 14,200 英尺範圍。就我們的壓裂效率而言，當我們壓裂到井趾時，我們能把它 break down（破裂啟裂）。地面上有足夠的馬力來啟裂並持續泵注；壓力也很充足，看不到接近摩擦損失的情況，因此我們可以啟裂那些更遠端的分段。因此，我們對今年鑽井排程中的 14,000 英尺以上仍然很有信心；明年我們還會更長。我們在 Marcellus 的某些地方會延伸到 15,000 到 16,000，甚至 17,000 英尺，我們也很有信心。確實，我們認為效率是存在的，而且我們不會看到像其他一些盤面所報導的那種效率損失。

Got it. And a final one for me, and I appreciate your patience. The -- in terms of NGLs -- the summer months, should we anticipate an increase in the proportion of C3+s as a percent of total NGL sales?

了解。最後一個問題，謝謝你們的耐心。——就 NGL（天然氣液）而言——在夏季月份，我們是否應該預期 C3+ 在總 NGL 銷售中的占比會提高？

I don't think so, Subash. I think it would be fairly consistent increase over the year between C2 and C3+.

我不這麼認為，Subash。我認為全年在 C2 與 C3+ 之間的變化會相當一致。

The next question is from Welles Fitzpatrick of Johnson Rice.

下一個問題來自 Johnson Rice 的 Welles Fitzpatrick。

Actually it's Welles from SunTrust. But on those NGL realizations, thanks for the great macro overview, but as far as the in-base and pricing is concerned, can you talk to the Mariner East outage in March? I mean, did not affect the C3, C4 pricing? And when that reverses, should we look to that to improve as we move into 2Q?

其實我是 SunTrust 的 Welles。不過關於那些 NGL 實現價格（realizations），謝謝你們很棒的總體（macro）概述，但就基差（in-basin）與定價而言，能否談談 3 月 Mariner East 停運的影響？我的意思是，它沒有影響 C3、C4 的定價嗎？而當它恢復後，我們是否應該預期在進入 2Q 時會有所改善？

There were some minor effect, I'd say, on C3+ pricing in March from that. It's still not back on. As you know, Mariner I, which brought some more barrels to the region, but we do anticipate that coming back on here in the next couple of weeks, hopefully as we understand they're very close and just waiting on the regulatory bodies to sign off on the repairs. And as far as ME2, we're still assuming that comes online here midyear, and that's what Energy Transfer is still stating publicly and that's what we're hearing from them. So we're hopeful. We're assuming at least by July that we'll have ME2 online, and that's going to help a lot during the summer months. If it is delayed to later in the year, that certainly has some costs to it. We'd estimate if it -- the delay to year-end, it may cost us $30 million or so of sort of cash flow in the second half of the year, but we don't anticipate that. We feel pretty good about the progress that we're making. You say the numbers probably they have 98% of the pipe in the ground and get completed something over 90% of the bores. So they are making progress there. But second quarter is always a bit soft to regionally certainly since you have to move so much product in the second and third quarter out of the region by rail without the pipes, so we're really looking forward to the pipes getting in place.

我會說，3 月那件事對 C3+ 定價有一些輕微影響。它目前仍未恢復。如你所知，Mariner I 已經讓更多桶數進入該區域，但我們確實預期它會在接下來幾週內恢復；據我們了解，他們已非常接近，只是在等待監管機構對維修簽核放行。至於 ME2，我們仍假設它會在年中上線；Energy Transfer 仍在公開場合這麼說，我們從他們那邊聽到的也是如此。所以我們抱持希望。我們假設至少到 7 月 ME2 會上線，這在夏季月份會有很大幫助。如果延後到今年稍晚，當然會產生一些成本。我們估計如果——若延後到年底，可能會讓我們在下半年損失約 3,000 萬美元左右的某種現金流，但我們不預期會那樣。我們對目前的進展感覺相當不錯。你提到的數字，他們大概已經把 98% 的管線埋入地下，並完成了 90% 以上的穿越（bores）。所以他們確實在推進。不過第二季在區域面通常都會偏弱，因為在沒有管線的情況下，你必須在第二、第三季用鐵路把大量產品運出該區域，所以我們非常期待管線到位。

Okay, perfect. And then just one follow-up, and it kind of goes to Subash's question. Obviously, you have the 17,000-plus footer, per Slide 21. There are diminishing returns. I mean, is that 17,000 footer, is that something that was done because of lease geometry? Or is that something that -- I mean, do you think you would work that type of lateral into the overall program on a wider basis?

好的，完美。再追問一個，這也有點呼應 Subash 的問題。顯然你們有 17,000 英尺以上的水平段，見投影片 21。長度拉長會有邊際報酬遞減。我的意思是，那個 17,000 英尺的水平段，是因為租約幾何（lease geometry）才這麼做的嗎？還是說——你們認為會在更廣泛的層面，把這種水平段納入整體計畫？

Yes, absolutely. Are you talking about the Utica 17,000 footers that we've done?

是的，當然。你是在說我們做過的 Utica 17,000 英尺水平段嗎？

Yes, that's right.

對，沒錯。

Yes, yes. So we completed 4 of those, and they'll be brought online shortly. But now we feel really good. As Paul had mentioned, about going out further. In the gas plays -- and even in the gas and liquids plays, we just don't see that decline and productivity as you go out further. So you're incentivized as a producer to drill longer, as long as you can manage the cycle times on the pad. And that goes back to our Analyst Day when we sort of rolled out the -- our research and looked into concurrent operations, where we actually spread out the wellheads on a larger pad and we're able to drill and complete on that same pad concurrently. So that's kind of where we're headed over the longer term. And I think we'll be actually executing on some of those later this year. And that really improves your cycle times in terms of getting the first production, and facilitates drilling those long laterals in the 14,000- to 17,000-foot range, and capitalizing on efficiencies that you get from going out that far, not losing any efficiency on your EUR per 1,000.

是的，是的。所以我們已完井 4 口，將在近期投產。不過現在我們感覺非常好。正如 Paul 提到的，關於再往更遠延伸。在氣體盤——甚至在氣體與液體盤——我們就是看不到隨著延伸更遠而出現的那種衰減與生產力下降。因此，作為生產商，只要你能管理好井場（pad）的週期時間，你就會有動機去鑽更長的水平段。這也回到我們在分析師日（Analyst Day）提出的——我們的研究，並探討並行作業（concurrent operations）：我們實際上把井口在更大的井場上分散配置，並能在同一井場同時進行鑽井與完井。這就是我們長期要走的方向。我認為我們今年稍晚就會在其中一些項目上實際執行。這能在首批產量投出方面顯著改善週期時間，並促進鑽 14,000 到 17,000 英尺範圍的長水平段，並把延伸那麼遠所帶來的效率優勢變現，同時不會在每 1,000 英尺的 EUR 上損失任何效率。

The next question is from Brian Singer of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Singer。

Certainly noteworthy that well costs still maybe falling here with some of the efficiencies, how do you think about the trade-off of meeting production expectations and potentially spending less capital versus sticking with the CapEx budget and producing more? And if you're drilling wells more swiftly, would you need to choose at some point here, whether to drop rigs versus end up drilling more wells than expected?

很值得注意的是，在一些效率提升的帶動下，單井成本似乎仍可能在下降。你們如何看待在達成產量預期與可能投入更少資本之間的取捨，相較於維持資本支出（CapEx）預算並生產更多？另外，如果你們鑽井速度更快，是否會在某個時間點需要做出選擇：是減少鑽機數量，還是最後鑽出比預期更多的井？

Well, that's true at some point, Brian. But right now, we're just looking to manage the budget for this year. I think there will be some inflation out there if we kind of analyze it -- and show that we expect to see sort of 2%, as [TWO] kind of inflation this year, and our well costs somewhat offset by efficiencies. So I think we are able to capture even more efficiency than that, which we fully anticipate doing than we may have some room there. And I don't think you'll see us increasing the capital budget in order to grow production. I think we'll stick to our production targets and lean more towards capitalizing on the additional free cash flow that you get from spending less.

Brian，某個時間點確實會是這樣。但目前我們只是著眼於管理今年的預算。我認為如果我們去分析，外部會有一些通膨——我們預期今年大概會看到約 2% 的通膨，而我們的單井成本會在一定程度上被效率提升所抵銷。所以我認為我們甚至能夠捕捉到比這更多的效率，我們也完全預期會做到，因此可能會有一些空間。而且我不認為你會看到我們為了提高產量而增加資本預算。我認為我們會堅持既定的產量目標，並更傾向於利用因支出較少而帶來的額外自由現金流。

Great. And second question's a little up to beaten path. Antero's always been aggressive in looking to reduce longer-term pricing risk with the hedges going out into the 2020. I guess, a, do you see less of a need to continue to do that, as the cash flow ramps up and potentially, the balance sheet improves? Or are there opportunities beyond hedging, potentially in the global gas market, which has tightened? Are there opportunities to sign contracts to provide stable prices at levels greater than what we would see on the forward curve?

很好。第二個問題有點不走尋常路。Antero 一向積極透過延伸到 2020 年代的避險來降低較長期的價格風險。我想問：第一，隨著現金流增加、資產負債表可能改善，你們是否認為繼續這麼做的必要性降低了？或者，除了避險之外，鑑於全球天然氣市場已趨緊，是否存在其他機會？例如是否有機會簽訂合約，以高於遠期曲線所反映的水準提供穩定價格？

Yes. So as we grow, yes, anyone could make the case for not as much need to hedge. We have about a 2-year, 2.5-year glide with a path here, where we're quite fully hedged. And so we have time to watch and hope that higher gas prices come back in on the other part of the curve, and we completed the contango. So we watch it all the time, but we're patient and we'll just see where that goes. And I will say, as our volumes get higher and higher, I don't know if we'll seek to hedge it all or just some portion of it. As to what's out there, on the physicals side, we certainly -- we are already a provider of LNG to Cove Point and to Sabine and we'll also be a provider at Freeport. And so our totals are approaching $600 million a day on those projects, and maybe even another $100 million or $200 million here and there. So on global gas, it's a good, solid physical market. They are typically NYMEX based, and so one can hedge the NYMEX and do whatever one wants there, whether it's trying enhancing that price. So we do look to at least do those pretty straightforward approaches. If there's something else out there, as in global LNG, FOB, the shift, we look into that. Don't know if that's realistic to make it through the LNG facility and get the higher price or not, but we would at least consider it.

是的。隨著我們成長，確實任何人都可以主張不需要那麼多避險。我們大約有 2 年到 2.5 年的緩衝期（glide path），在這段期間我們的避險覆蓋相當完整。因此我們有時間觀察並期待在曲線的另一端回到較高的天然氣價格，並且完成這個正價差（contango）。我們一直在關注，但我們會保持耐心，看看後續如何發展。我也要說，隨著我們的產量越來越高，我不確定我們是否會把全部都拿去避險，或只避險其中一部分。至於實體市場方面，我們當然——我們已經是 Cove Point 與 Sabine 的 LNG 供應商，也將成為 Freeport 的供應商。因此我們在這些專案上的總量接近每天 6 億美元，甚至可能再加上零星的 1 億或 2 億美元。就全球天然氣而言，這是一個良好且穩健的實體市場。它們通常以 NYMEX 為基礎，因此可以對 NYMEX 進行避險，並在那裡做任何想做的事，包括嘗試提升價格。因此我們至少會採取這些相當直接的做法。如果還有其他機會，例如全球 LNG、FOB 的轉變，我們也會研究。我不確定是否實際可行——能否穿越 LNG 設施並取得更高價格——但我們至少會加以考慮。

The last question is from Bob Morris of Citi.

最後一個問題來自花旗的 Bob Morris。

Paul, Glen, you sort of fleshed out how you manage the budget with the excess cash flow and the capital gain you had this quarter with a nice improvement in efficiencies if those continue going forward. So the second question I had was just on the sand cost. You said you assume about 5% inflation on consumables, but what are you seeing on the sand side given that more local sand is being consumed locally in other basins. Is that taking some pressure off the sand costs in the Marcellus and Utica? And are there any issues with the availability of transportation to move that sand into your regions of operation -- or how is that playing out?

Paul、Glen，你們已經說明了在本季效率顯著改善、且若未來持續改善的情況下，如何用超額現金流與本季的資本利得來管理預算。所以我第二個問題是關於砂（壓裂砂）成本。你們說對消耗品假設約 5% 的通膨，但在砂這一塊你們看到什麼情況？考量到更多本地砂在其他盆地被就地消耗，這是否正在減輕 Marcellus 與 Utica 的砂成本壓力？另外，把砂運到你們作業區域的運輸可用性是否有任何問題——或目前的情況是如何演變的？

Yes, I think it's playing out favorably for the producer for the whole trend towards regional sand. I laughed at the -- early on, say 6 months ago, I was a sand snob and said the northern white only. We don't want to take that risk. But then we've -- we're looking just like others. We've already done some pilots with regional sands that are cheaper 100-mesh pilots, regional sand. And it's so far so good, I would say. It's the whole trend within the industry to seek out regional is going to put less pressure, obviously, on northern white. So we are open-minded on that. And if one expands the supply to include all the regionals, then that's going to help lower prices. I do think on the transportation side, a lot of people, including ourselves, and some of our service companies, are working on that. Low unemployment is great, but we, in the service companies, are seeing it in trucks and trains -- that some of that is jamming up. And so there are some that are going to their own trucking companies just to make sure they can move the product and more focused on transload and so on. So I do think that is a focus of the industry right now. We found what could be a huge new supply taking into account regionals and -- but now it's focused on the logistics of it and but we do see that it's favorable and our bias is that both the sand itself and supply chain are going to help us -- will at least be able to stay flat.

是的，我認為整體朝向區域砂（regional sand）的趨勢，對生產商而言是有利的。我笑的是——早期大概 6 個月前，我還是個「砂的勢利眼」，說只要北方白砂（northern white）。我們不想冒那個風險。但後來我們——我們也跟其他人一樣在看。我們已經用較便宜的區域砂做了一些試點，包括 100 目（100-mesh）的區域砂試點。到目前為止我會說效果不錯。整個產業尋找區域砂的趨勢，顯然會減輕對北方白砂的壓力。所以我們對此保持開放態度。而且如果把供應範圍擴大到包含所有區域砂，那將有助於降低價格。我確實認為在運輸端，很多人（包括我們自己）以及我們的一些服務公司都在處理這件事。低失業率很好，但我們在服務公司端看到卡在卡車與鐵路——有些運力出現堵塞。因此有些公司轉而成立自己的卡車公司，以確保能運送產品，並更聚焦於轉運（transload）等。我確實認為這是產業目前的重點。我們發現若把區域砂納入考量，可能會有龐大的新增供應——但現在焦點轉到物流上。不過我們確實看到這對我們有利，而我們的看法是砂本身與供應鏈都會幫助我們——至少能夠維持持平。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Michael Kennedy for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Michael Kennedy，請他做任何結語。

Thank you for joining us on our call today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us. Thanks, again.

感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。如有任何進一步問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。再次感謝。

The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending to this presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議已結束。感謝各位出席本次簡報。您現在可以掛線。