Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Antero Resources Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2017 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議與網路直播。(接線員指示) 請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Kennedy, Senior Vice President of Finance and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給財務資深副總裁兼投資人關係主管 Michael Kennedy 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you for joining us for Antero's fourth quarter 2017 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we've provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

感謝各位參加 Antero 2017 年第四季投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，接著開放問答。我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將於今日會議中一併檢視。

Before we start our comments, I would like to first remind you that during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在開始發言之前，我想先提醒各位，本次電話會議中 Antero 管理團隊將提出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。實際結果與成果可能與此類陳述所表達、暗示或預測者存在重大差異。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今日電話會議亦可能包含若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿，以了解與該等指標相關的重要揭露事項，包括與最可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。

Before I turn it over to Paul, I also quickly want to address the recently published shareholder letter and our response press release. As stated in our press release, we are currently working with our board to evaluate various potential measures. There's no definitive timetable for completion of this evaluation, and there can be no assurances that any initiatives will be announced or completed in the future.

在我把時間交給 Paul 之前，我也想簡要說明近期發布的股東信以及我們的回應新聞稿。如同我們在新聞稿中所述，我們目前正與董事會合作評估各項可能措施。此評估完成並無明確時間表，且無法保證未來將宣布或完成任何倡議。

During today's call, we will not address any additional questions related to this matter. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO.

在今日電話會議中，我們不會就此事項回答任何額外問題。今日與我一同參與電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Paul Rady，以及總裁兼財務長 Glen Warren。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

現在我把電話會議交給 Paul。

Thanks, Mike, and thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to review our 2017 development activity, including the cost efficiencies and targets we have achieved, discuss our unique acreage position and how it will drive stable cash flows through our liquids exposure and our long lateral drilling and finish with an operational update with respect to Antero's recently announced 5-year plan. Glen will then highlight our fourth quarter and full year financial results, including price realizations, provide a brief update on recent marketing activities with our firm transportation portfolio and discuss further our recently announced 5-year operational and financial targets.

謝謝你，Mike，也感謝各位今天收聽。在我的發言中，我將回顧我們 2017 年的開發活動，包括我們已達成的成本效率與目標；討論我們獨特的土地（acreage）布局，以及它如何透過我們的液體（liquids）曝險與長水平段鑽井帶來穩定現金流；最後就 Antero 近期公布的 5 年計畫提供營運更新。接著 Glen 將重點說明我們第四季與全年財務結果（包括價格實現），簡要更新我們以確定運輸（firm transportation）組合所進行的近期行銷活動，並進一步討論我們近期公布的 5 年營運與財務目標。

First, I wanted to quickly touch on our recent Analyst Day that we hosted in New York in mid-January, which many of you have attended. Our decision to put on this event was a reflection of where Antero is today in its life cycle. Following years of substantial production growth from virtually no production back in 2008 to now the seventh largest gas producer today, we are now moving into the next phase with a focus on disciplined investment and the delivery of free cash flow.

首先，我想快速提及我們在 1 月中旬於紐約舉辦的近期分析師日活動，許多各位都曾出席。我們決定舉辦此活動，反映了 Antero 目前所處的生命週期階段。在經歷多年大幅增產、從 2008 年幾乎沒有產量到如今成為第七大天然氣生產商之後，我們正邁入下一階段，聚焦於紀律性投資與自由現金流的交付。

We've been able to reduce our 5-year capital plan by $2.9 billion due to the benefits of continued efficiency gains and the shift to longer laterals. These cost savings, combined with our large liquids rich drilling inventory in the Appalachian Basin, lead to $1.6 billion of targeted free cash flow through 2022, with upside to $2.8 billion under a $60 per barrel steady oil price environment.

受惠於持續的效率提升以及轉向更長水平段，我們已將 5 年資本計畫下調 29 億美元。這些成本節省，加上我們在阿帕拉契盆地（Appalachian Basin）龐大的富含液體鑽井庫存，使我們在 2022 年前的目標自由現金流達 16 億美元；在每桶 60 美元的穩定油價環境下，上行空間可達 28 億美元。

This updated 5-year outlook positions Antero in a very small group of elite E&Ps that have the size and scale, the double-digit growth, low leverage and positive free cash flow.

這份更新後的 5 年展望，使 Antero 躋身一個規模很小的頂尖 E&P（勘探與生產）公司行列：具備足夠的規模與量體、雙位數成長、低槓桿以及正向自由現金流。

Now let's discuss some of our 2017 development highlights. For the second straight year, we executed our development program ahead of plan and under budget at $1.28 billion, while growing our production 22% year-over-year, including 35% liquids production growth compared to 2016.

接下來談談我們 2017 年的一些開發重點。連續第二年，我們在進度超前且低於預算的情況下執行開發計畫，支出為 12.8 億美元；同時產量年增 22%，其中液體產量相較 2016 年成長 35%。

On the cost front, Slide #3, which is entitled, reduced cycle times lead to lower well costs. The slide illustrates the continued decline in drilling days and the increases in stages completed per day.

在成本方面，請看第 3 張投影片，標題為「縮短週期時間帶來更低的單井成本」。該投影片顯示鑽井天數持續下降，以及每日完成的壓裂段數（stages）增加。

In the Marcellus, and I would have you focus on the green bars on the diagram, we improved our average drilling days from 15 days to 12 days or a 20% reduction, while further increasing our completion stages per day by 5%. These gains, both in drilling and completing, are particularly impressive, given the fact that we increased profit per foot in completions in the Marcellus by 23% to over 2,000 pounds per foot in 2017 from 2016 levels, while we also increased our lateral lengths.

在 Marcellus，我希望各位聚焦圖表中的綠色長條：我們將平均鑽井天數從 15 天改善至 12 天，降幅 20%；同時每日完工段數再提升 5%。這些在鑽井與完井（completion）上的進展尤其令人印象深刻，因為我們在 Marcellus 的完井每英尺加砂量（proppant per foot）於 2017 年較 2016 年提高 23%，至每英尺超過 2,000 磅，同時我們也增加了水平段長度。

Looking ahead, as portrayed on Slide # 4 titled, Almost $3 Billion Capital Reduction to 5-Year Plan, we've taken approximately $2.9 billion of consolidated drilling and completion costs out of the 5-year plan. We'll touch on the components of that in a moment, but as shown on the left-hand chart, the 5-year drilling and completion capital budget was reduced from $10 billion to $7 billion as a result of the new development program.

展望未來，如第 4 張投影片所示（標題為「5 年計畫資本支出減少近 30 億美元」），我們已自 5 年計畫中剔除約 29 億美元的合併鑽井與完井成本。我們稍後會說明其組成，但如左側圖表所示，因新的開發方案，5 年鑽井與完井資本預算已由 100 億美元降至 70 億美元。

Further, if you look on the right side of the page, you'll notice that we are achieving this significant capital reduction, while maintaining our production targets. As illustrated in the purple arrow, we expect to achieve an 18% CAGR from 2018 to 2022, which includes 20% growth through 2020 and 15% thereafter.

此外，如果各位看右側，會注意到我們在維持產量目標的同時，仍能達成這項顯著的資本下調。如紫色箭頭所示，我們預期 2018 至 2022 年的年複合成長率（CAGR）為 18%，其中 2020 年前成長 20%，其後為 15%。

Now let's break out the components of the $2.9 billion reduction in drilling and completion capital. Slide #5 titled, New Development Plan Equals $2.9 Billion D&C CapEx Savings. Slide 5 contains a waterfall that breaks down the components of the capital reduction. One of the larger components is our focus on longer laterals, as shown in the orange bar. As we lengthened the laterals, we spread out the fixed costs of the well and reduced the overall cost per foot. That shift alone took out almost $1 billion of capital or just over $1 million per well.

現在我們拆解這 29 億美元鑽井與完井資本下調的組成。第 5 張投影片標題為「新開發計畫等同於 29 億美元 D&C 資本支出節省」。第 5 張投影片包含一個瀑布圖，用以拆解資本下調的各項來源。其中較大的組成之一，是我們聚焦於更長的水平段，如橘色長條所示。隨著水平段加長，我們得以攤提單井固定成本並降低每英尺總成本。僅此一項轉變就減少了將近 10 億美元資本，或每口井略高於 100 萬美元。

The second component illustrated by the purple bar is reduced cycle times. By continuing to reduce drilling days and increasing our stages per day, we were able to eliminate $0.5 billion from the drilling program. This includes further expectations for an increase in stages per day over time and the introduction of concurrent operations, where we expect to be able to drill and complete concurrently on separate areas of a pad.

第二項組成如紫色長條所示，為週期時間縮短。透過持續降低鑽井天數並提高每日段數，我們得以自鑽井計畫中減少 5 億美元。這也包含我們對未來每日段數持續提升的進一步預期，以及導入並行作業（concurrent operations），亦即我們預期能在同一井場平台（pad）的不同區域同時進行鑽井與完井。

The next component of cost savings is a function of our capital allocation with more focus on our hydrated liquids-rich Marcellus over the Utica, which removed $1.1 billion of capital. Additionally, we removed over 90 drier locations in the Marcellus from the previous 5-year plan, resulting in a more capital-efficient spending, while still delivering the same production growth.

下一項成本節省來自我們的資本配置：相較於 Utica，我們將更多重心放在富含液體的 Marcellus，因而減少 11 億美元資本。此外，我們也自先前的 5 年計畫中移除 Marcellus 內超過 90 個較乾（drier）的井位，使資本支出更具效率，同時仍能交付相同的產量成長。

The last piece is simply well cost savings, as shown by the brown bar on the right. The $0.4 billion reduction here is primarily driven by the Antero Clearwater facility and the ability to truck our wastewater a much shorter distance in West Virginia to recycle rather than trucking the wastewater to disposal wells in Ohio.

最後一項只是井口成本節省，如右側棕色長條所示。此處的4億美元降幅主要來自Antero Clearwater設施，以及我們能夠在西維吉尼亞州以更短的距離用卡車運送廢水進行回收，而非將廢水運往俄亥俄州的處置井。

The Antero Clearwater facility is a viable opportunity because of our unique contiguous acreage position. To further touch on this, I'll direct you to Slide #6 entitled, Who Has the Running Room? We believe there are 2 things that separate us from many of our Appalachian peers.

Antero Clearwater設施之所以是一個可行的機會，源於我們獨特且連片的土地持有位置。為了進一步說明這點，請參閱第6頁投影片，標題為「誰擁有足夠的發展空間？」我們認為有兩點使我們與許多阿帕拉契地區同業有所區隔。

First, our contiguous acreage position has allowed us to drill, on average, longer laterals than anyone in the Marcellus to date and gives us the deepest inventory of long laterals in the basin. Second, our peer-leading liquids rich inventory, we control more than 40% of the undrilled locations in Appalachia. We are currently the largest NGL producer in the U.S. and expect to grow our NGL production by 20% annually over the next 5 years, which gives us tremendous exposure to liquids upside, as Glen will get into later. This combination gives us significant running room to drill high rate of return wells for many years to come, and plays a significant role in our ability to generate meaningful free cash flow.

第一，我們連片的土地持有位置使我們迄今在Marcellus平均能鑽出比任何人都更長的水平段，並讓我們在該盆地擁有最深厚的長水平段庫存。第二，我們同業領先的富液體資源庫存，我們掌控阿帕拉契地區超過40%的未鑽探井位。我們目前是美國最大的NGL生產商，並預期未來5年NGL產量每年成長20%，使我們對液體上行具有極大的曝險，Glen稍後會進一步說明。這項組合讓我們在未來多年具備充足空間鑽探高報酬率井，並在我們創造可觀自由現金流的能力上扮演重要角色。

Finally, some operational highlights that we touched on in our earnings release. We are delivering long laterals today as 9 of the 27 horizontals we drilled in the Marcellus in the fourth quarter had long laterals that were actually longer than 12,000 feet. Our largest pad to date in the Marcellus is a 12-well pad with approximately 120,000 feet of drilled lateral that will deliver about 300 Bcf equivalent of pad reserves. This is remarkable, and this amount of reserves can be delivered from one pad.

最後，補充一些我們在財報新聞稿中提到的營運亮點。我們目前正在交付長水平段：第四季在Marcellus鑽探的27口水平井中，有9口的長水平段實際上超過12,000英尺。我們迄今在Marcellus最大的井場是一個12口井的井場，鑽探水平段總長約120,000英尺，將可提供約300 Bcf當量的井場儲量。這非常驚人，而且這樣的儲量可以由單一井場交付。

We're also drilling a 9-well pad right now that is expected to have average lateral lengths of 13,200 feet, which will result in similar reserves to the pad I just mentioned.

我們目前也正在鑽探一個9口井的井場，預期平均水平段長度為13,200英尺，將帶來與我剛提到的井場相近的儲量。

In the Utica, we placed a 10-well pad to sales at year-end, and is currently flowing dry gas at a combined rate of over 200 million cubic feet a day, with wellhead pressures in excess of 3,000 psi. In fact, we achieved record production of 632 million a day recently in the Ohio Utica after running only 1 rig and completing only 22 wells in the play in 2017.

在Utica，我們於年底將一個10口井的井場投產銷售，目前合計乾氣流量超過每日2億立方英尺，井口壓力超過3,000 psi。事實上，我們最近在俄亥俄州Utica創下每日6.32億（立方英尺）的紀錄產量，而2017年在該區塊僅運行1座鑽機並僅完井22口井。

With that, I will turn it over to Glen for his comments.

接下來，我把時間交給Glen發表他的評論。

Thank you, Paul. In my comments today, I will highlight our fourth quarter and full year financial results, including price realizations that benefited from our increased liquids volumes and improved NGL prices during the year, provide an update on some recent marketing gains we have achieved, highlight recent favorable credit rating actions from the rating agencies and finish up with brief comments on our recently announced long-term outlook, including our priorities for free cash flow use.

謝謝你，Paul。在我今天的評論中，我將重點說明我們第四季與全年財務結果，包括因液體產量增加及年內NGL價格改善而受惠的實現價格；更新我們近期取得的一些行銷（銷售/運輸）成果；強調評等機構近期對我們信用評等的有利調整；並以簡短評論作結，談談我們近期公布的長期展望，包括自由現金流的使用優先順序。

Let me begin with some of the key highlights from the quarter and the year. Production averaged a record 2.35 Bcfe a day for the quarter, an 18% year-over-year increase, including over 107,000 barrels a day of liquids. Liquids production included 6,200 barrels a day of oil and just over 101,000 barrels of NGLs. This production outperformance continues to be driven by operational improvements, particularly associated with the advanced completions and longer laterals that were more widely incorporated across the development program during 2017.

我先從本季與全年的一些關鍵亮點開始。本季平均產量創新高，達每日2.35 Bcfe，年增18%，其中液體超過每日107,000桶。液體產量包括每日6,200桶原油，以及略高於每日101,000桶的NGL。這項超預期的產量表現持續由營運改善所驅動，特別是與先進完井技術及更長水平段相關；這些在2017年更廣泛地納入整體開發計畫。

Now to briefly touch on some financial highlights from the quarter. We generated $437 million in consolidated EBITDAX. This represents a 30% sequential increase, up over $100 million, resulting in a consolidated margin of $2.02 per Mcfe. This sequential increase in EBITDAX was driven primarily by improved liquids pricing, which I will touch on in just a minute. Adjusted operating cash flow was $360 million -- sorry, $368 million or $1.17 per share.

接著簡要說明本季的一些財務亮點。我們產生了4.37億美元的合併EBITDAX。這代表較前一季成長30%，增加逾1億美元，使合併利潤率達每Mcfe 2.02美元。EBITDAX的這項季增主要由液體價格改善所帶動，我稍後會提到。調整後營運現金流為3.60億美元——抱歉，3.68億美元，或每股1.17美元。

Moving on to realized pricing during the fourth quarter.

接下來談第四季的實現價格。

We realized $2.80 per Mcf before hedges on our natural gas production during the quarter, a $0.13 per Mcf differential to NYMEX Henry Hub and above guidance of $0.15 to $0.20 differential per Mcf. Excluding the negative impact from natural gas contract disputes of $0.20 per Mcf, the average price before hedging would have been $3 per Mcf or a $0.07 premium to NYMEX Henry Hub and in line with the year ago premium, once again, illustrating the strategic advantage of a firm transportation portfolio that allows us to move virtually all of our gas away from unfavorable local indices.

本季我們天然氣在避險前的實現價格為每Mcf 2.80美元，較NYMEX Henry Hub折價每Mcf 0.13美元，優於指引所預期每Mcf折價0.15至0.20美元。若排除天然氣合約爭議造成每Mcf 0.20美元的負面影響，則避險前平均價格將為每Mcf 3.00美元，亦即較NYMEX Henry Hub溢價0.07美元，並與去年同期的溢價一致；再次顯示我們具策略優勢的固定運輸組合，使我們幾乎能將所有天然氣移出不利的本地指數市場。

During 2018, we do not expect a material impact from contractual disputes due in part to an amendment to one of the contracts, additional takeaway capacity and expectation of more narrow regional basis differentials based on current strip futures pricing.

在2018年，我們預期合約爭議不會造成重大影響，部分原因是其中一份合約已修訂、外運能力增加，以及基於目前期貨遠期曲線（strip）定價，區域基差價差預期將更為收斂。

For full year 2017, excluding the $0.14 per Mcf negative impact from contractual disputes, we realized a $0.02 premium to NYMEX Henry Hub, in line with initial guidance. We realized a natural gas hedge gain of $136 million during the fourth quarter or $0.87 per Mcf of gas produced and $366 million for the full year or $0.62 per Mcf of gas produced during the year.

就2017年全年而言，若排除合約爭議造成每Mcf 0.14美元的負面影響，我們相對NYMEX Henry Hub實現0.02美元的溢價，符合最初指引。第四季我們實現天然氣避險收益1.36億美元，或每Mcf產出天然氣0.87美元；全年為3.66億美元，或每Mcf產出天然氣0.62美元。

Moving forward, we believe that our firm transportation and hedge book will continue to be competitive advantages for Antero, as uncertainty around both overall gas pricing in Northeast bases is likely to continue.

展望未來，我們相信固定運輸與避險部位將持續成為Antero的競爭優勢，因為東北部各基準點的整體天然氣定價不確定性很可能仍將延續。

As a reminder, for 2018 and 2019, assuming the midpoint of production targets, we are 100% hedged at an average price of $3.50 per MMBtu in both years. This is over a $0.70 per MMBtu premium or just over 25% higher than current strip pricing, providing a bridge across challenging gas markets as steadily growing supply is digested by lumpier growth in demand.

提醒一下，針對2018與2019年，假設以產量目標的中位數計算，我們兩年皆已以平均每MMBtu 3.50美元的價格100%完成避險。這比目前期貨遠期曲線（strip）定價高出每MMBtu超過0.70美元，或略高於25%的溢價，當供給穩定成長而需求成長較為不均衡時，能在具挑戰的天然氣市場中提供一座橋樑。

Next, I did want to touch on a couple of first quarter items we mentioned in our release yesterday that will impact both production and net marketing expense. On the production front, as a result of the severe winter weather that hit the Northeast in early January and a downstream pipeline rupture as well, we were forced to shut in a portion of our production for a few days. These shutdowns, combined with the timing of completions throughout 2018, will result in essentially flat production to the fourth quarter of 2017.

接著，我也想談談我們在昨日新聞稿中提到的幾項第一季事項，這些將同時影響產量與淨行銷費用。在產量方面，由於1月初侵襲東北部的嚴寒冬季天候，以及下游管線破裂事件，我們被迫將部分產量停產數日。這些停產，加上2018年全年完井時點的安排，將使產量相較2017年第四季基本持平。

We continue to expect to meet our 2018 production guidance of 2.7 Bcfe per day with $1.3 billion of consolidated capital spending.

我們仍預期能達成2018年每日2.7 Bcfe的產量指引，並搭配13億美元的合併資本支出。

On a very positive note, the severe weather resulted in significantly higher gas prices than originally forecast in January, and provided us with attractive opportunities to mitigate the costs from our unutilized firm transportation. The significant marketing gain and attractive pricing more than offsets the impact from the production shut-ins for the quarter.

非常正面的一點是，惡劣天氣使天然氣價格顯著高於1月原先的預測，並為我們提供了具吸引力的機會，以降低我們未使用之固定運輸（firm transportation）所產生的成本。顯著的行銷收益與具吸引力的定價，已足以抵銷本季因停產（shut-ins）所帶來的影響。

As outlined on Slide #7 titled, Natural Gas Firm Transportation & Sales Update, due to the mitigation efforts in the early part of the year, we are lowering the high end of our 2018 net marketing and expense in guidance to $0.125 per Mcfe and, in fact, expect to report a net marketing gain in the first quarter of 2018. This is an important highlight as we continue to mitigate our unutilized firm cost that we expect to incur over the next couple of years prior to filling most of our transport with Antero equity production.

如投影片第7頁「天然氣固定運輸與銷售更新」所述，由於年初前段的成本緩解措施，我們將2018年指引中淨行銷與費用的上緣下調至每Mcfe 0.125美元，且事實上，我們預期將在2018年第一季報告淨行銷收益。這是一項重要亮點，因為我們持續降低未使用固定運輸成本；在未來幾年、於我們以Antero自有產量填滿大部分運輸容量之前，我們預期仍將承擔該等成本。

Moving on to liquids pricing for the quarter. We realized an unhedged C3+ NGL price of $39.16 per barrel or 71% of NYMEX-WTI and an ethane price of $0.24 per gallon or $10.02 per barrel in the Northeast. The C3+ NGL pricing of 71% of WTI during the quarter resulted in realized pricing equal to 60% of WTI for the full year, significantly above the initial guidance for the year, which was 45% to 50% of WTI. The improvement in realized pricing was primarily driven by the strengthening of Mont Belvieu pricing relative to WTI. The strengthening of Mont Belvieu pricing was a function of a rise in export capacity and volumes, narrowing the differential to global LPG prices.

接著談本季液體定價。我們在未避險情況下實現的C3+ NGL價格為每桶39.16美元，相當於NYMEX-WTI的71%；在東北地區，乙烷價格為每加侖0.24美元或每桶10.02美元。本季C3+ NGL定價達WTI的71%，使得全年實現價格相當於WTI的60%，顯著高於年初指引的WTI之45%至50%。實現價格的改善主要來自Mont Belvieu相對WTI的價格走強。Mont Belvieu價格走強係因出口能力與出口量提升，縮小了與全球LPG價格之價差。

Continuing on the liquids topic, and as Paul mentioned earlier, our significant liquids-rich inventory enables us to achieve tremendous growth in our liquids production. Nearly 40% of our product revenue is generated by our liquid stream, giving us great exposure to upside in liquids pricing.

延續液體議題，且如Paul先前提到的，我們大量的富液庫存使我們能在液體產量上達成可觀成長。我們約40%的產品營收來自液體流，讓我們能充分受益於液體價格上行。

Now shifting gears for a quick credit update. I'll direct you to Slide #8 titled, Positive Ratings Momentum. In early January of this year, both AR and AM were given an investment grade rating of BBB- by Fitch, supported by, one, our contiguous liquids-rich acreage position in the core of the Marcellus and the Utica; number two, our best-in-class hedge book and FT portfolio supporting production and netbacks; number three, our integrated business model with Antero Midstream; and number four, our strong balance sheet with a declining leverage profile.

接著快速更新信用狀況。請參考投影片第8頁「正向評等動能」。今年1月初，Fitch將AR與AM均評為BBB-投資等級，主要基於：第一，我們在Marcellus與Utica核心區擁有連片且富液的土地部位；第二，我們同業最佳的避險部位與固定運輸（FT）組合，支撐產量與淨回收（netbacks）；第三，我們與Antero Midstream整合的一體化商業模式；第四，我們資產負債表強健且槓桿率呈下降趨勢。

The positive ratings momentum continued last week as S&P provided both AR and AM with an upgrade to BB+ from BB. We believe our momentum towards an investment grade rating speaks volumes to not only the business model we've built, but to our execution through volatile commodity price environments over the years.

正向評等動能在上週持續延伸，S&P將AR與AM的評等由BB上調至BB+。我們認為，朝投資等級評等邁進的動能，不僅充分反映我們所建立的商業模式，也反映我們多年來在大宗商品價格波動環境下的執行力。

To discuss our recently extended long-term outlook, I'll direct you to Slide #9, which illustrates our expectations of free cash flow over the next several years. And this is based on year-end strip pricing. We expect to achieve a net production CAGR of 20% on average through 2020, while targeting 15% growth in each of 2021 and 2022. We expect to achieve this growth while generating significant free cash flow.

為說明我們近期延長的長期展望，請參考投影片第9頁，該頁展示我們對未來數年自由現金流的預期。此係以年末期貨曲線（strip）價格為基礎。我們預期至2020年淨產量年複合成長率（CAGR）平均可達20%，並以2021年與2022年各15%的成長為目標。我們預期在達成上述成長的同時，仍可產生可觀的自由現金流。

As outlined on Slide #10 titled, cash flow growth drives dramatic deleveraging, we anticipate leverage to decline to below 2x in 2018 and below 2x in 2019 on the status quo basis, assuming all cash flow is used to pay down debt.

如投影片第10頁「現金流成長推動大幅去槓桿」所述，在維持現狀（status quo）基礎下，假設所有現金流均用於償還債務，我們預期槓桿率將於2018年降至2倍以下，並於2019年亦維持在2倍以下。

In summary, we have reached an inflection point in 2018 as we plan to deliver free cash flow, assuming year-end strip pricing and a declining leverage profile. As shown on Slide #11 titled, Antero Profile To Drive Multiple Expansion, this puts us in an elite group with just 6 E&P companies that scale double-digit growth, low leverage and generate free cash flow. The projected free cash flow would result in a free cash flow yield in the range of 9% in 2019 using the current share price, very attractive to -- relative to the integrated oil companies and leading large-cap E&Ps. With that, I will now call -- turn the call over to the operator for any questions.

總結而言，2018年我們已到達拐點；在假設年末期貨曲線（strip）價格的前提下，我們計畫交付自由現金流，且槓桿率將持續下降。如投影片第11頁「Antero概況推動估值倍數擴張」所示，這使我們躋身菁英行列：僅有6家E&P公司同時具備雙位數成長、低槓桿並能產生自由現金流。以目前股價計算，預估自由現金流將使2019年的自由現金流殖利率落在9%左右，與整合型石油公司及領先的大型市值E&P相比相當具吸引力。接下來我將把電話會議交回給接線員，進行提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Holly Stewart with Scotia Howard Weil.

(接線員指示) 第一個問題來自Scotia Howard Weil的Holly Stewart。

Maybe the first one, just around your marketing accomplishments during the first quarter, I don't think we've actually seen you have a marketing gain since you've been public. So any specific theory you can highlight? And maybe more importantly, can you replicate this again?

第一個問題，關於你們第一季在行銷方面的成果；我想自你們上市以來，我們似乎還沒看過你們出現行銷收益。是否有任何具體的原因或看法可以分享？以及更重要的是，這樣的成果能否再次複製？

Well, it certainly was a strong beginning to the year. And of course, it reflects the cold that hit the Northeast. And so we were able to move not only our gas, but buy a lot of distressed third-party gas that couldn't get out of the area. And so we were able to deliver gas to good, high markets. So we're talking about Chicago and MichCon, even the Gulf because of salt storage drawdown and good prices through January, and then along the Eastern seaboard, too. So it was really a good situation. As we fill more and more of our capacity, we'll be able to take advantage of good prices. Will we be able to duplicate that at the beginning of the year? Time will tell. But as our production grows, it certainly still is a good strategic advantage for us.

嗯，這確實是今年一個強勁的開局。當然，這反映了東北部遭遇的寒流。因此我們不僅能移轉我們自己的天然氣，還能買進大量無法運出該區域、處於困境的第三方天然氣。於是我們得以把天然氣交付到價格良好、較高的市場。我們指的是芝加哥與MichCon，甚至因鹽穴儲氣提取（salt storage drawdown）以及1月期間良好價格而包括墨西哥灣沿岸市場，另外也包括美國東岸。所以這確實是個很好的情境。隨著我們逐步填滿更多運輸容量，我們將更能把握良好價格帶來的機會。至於是否能在年初再次複製這樣的情況？時間會給答案。但隨著我們產量成長，這對我們而言仍然是一項很好的策略優勢。

Okay, great. And then maybe just if you have any sort of color on what's -- on liquids pricing right now. It looks like both propane and the butanes have been a little weak as of late. So just curious as to maybe -- from a maybe higher macro level what you guys are seeing out there.

好的，很好。接著想請你們談談目前液體定價的情況。看起來丙烷與丁烷近期都有些疲弱。所以想從較高層次的總體角度了解一下，你們在市場上觀察到什麼。

Well, we're seeing part of what was driving propane prices higher in the international market were Asian buyers that came back into the market and drove the price of propane up to nearly $0.85 a gallon on the front or at least on remainder of Cal-18, I should say, balance '18. And they've quieted some. So you've seen demand has drifted down a little bit as some of the buyers have gone away. So the front, as you're probably aware, now are balance '18 is in the order of $0.70 or so. We have about half of our Cal-18 production, our propane production hedged right now at pretty good prices, and we're just watching and have some expectations that it will move up a little bit again.

嗯，我們看到先前推升國際市場丙烷價格的部分因素，是亞洲買家回到市場，將丙烷價格推升至接近每加侖0.85美元（以近月或至少以2018年剩餘期間，也就是balance '18而言）。而他們近期趨於沉寂了一些。因此你會看到，隨著部分買家退出，需求略有下滑。所以如你所知，近月（或balance '18）目前大約在每加侖0.70美元左右。我們目前已以相當不錯的價格，對約一半的2018年（Cal-18）產量、也就是丙烷產量進行避險；我們正持續觀察，並預期價格可能會再小幅回升。

Okay, that's great. And then maybe a housekeeping item for Glen, if I could. Just Glen, kind of given Rovers in service in the first quarter, how should we think about the GP&T expense kind of flowing through the year? Obviously, 1Q would be up, but just kind of thinking about the trend over the course of the quarters.

好的，很棒。另外如果可以的話，有個例行問題想請教Glen。Glen，考量Rover在第一季投入服務，我們應該如何看待GP&T費用在全年各季的走勢？顯然第一季會上升，但想了解一下接下來各季的趨勢。

Yes. Holly, I'll take that one. This is Mike. We expect the transport portion from Rover ticks up to about $0.55 per Mcfe for the full year. And that's up from the high 40s, and that's directly related to the Rover impact.

是的。Holly，這題我來回答。我是 Mike。我們預期全年從 Rover 產生的運輸部分成本將上升到每 Mcfe 約 0.55 美元。這是從 0.40 多美元的高檔水準上來的，而且這與 Rover 的影響直接相關。

The next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Arun Jayaram。

I was wondering if you could help us a little bit with how the completion timing will occur now in 2018, given some of the weather-related impacts. I think at Analyst Day, you highlighted something between 140 and 150 completions. I wondered if you could give us maybe a little bit of guidance around how that could trend by quarter in '18.

我想請教一下，考量到一些與天氣相關的影響，2018 年的完井時點接下來會如何發生。我記得在分析師日你們提到大約 140 到 150 口完井。想請你們提供一些指引，說明 2018 年各季度可能會如何走勢。

Yes. The 145 that we referenced in the Analyst Day is actually pretty evenly split out through the quarters. It just so happens, in the first quarter, a majority of that activity is occurring in March. So you'll get a full impact from the first quarter completions starting in the second quarter. And that was as scheduled, a bit delayed because of the weather, but as scheduled.

是的。我們在分析師日提到的 145 口，其實在各季度之間分配得相當平均。只是剛好第一季的大部分活動發生在 3 月。因此，第一季完井的完整影響會從第二季開始反映。這原本就是既定排程，只是因天氣稍有延遲，但仍在排程之內。

Great. A follow-up just on the amendment to the WGL agreement. Can you just talk about how that will affect your gas price realizations in the early part? And then beyond '19, what happens?

很好。追問一下關於 WGL 協議的修訂。你能談談這會如何影響你們前期的天然氣實現價格嗎？那麼 2019 年之後會怎麼樣？

Well, we did restructure part of our contracts with WGL. Part of the difficulty that they ran into was their ability to receive our gas to buy it at a certain constricted point or restricted on the TCO system. And so that was a problem, and we had to instead move the gas to inferior markets, lower realizations and realizing some damages. What we've done is to neutralize that contract and -- so that instead, beginning at the end of the year, as WV is completed all the way over to Loudoun, Virginia, we'll just be delivering the gas over in the Cove Point area. And so they don't have the restrictions over there to receive the gas. So that's how we worked it out, was reducing and shifting receipt points. And so we don't see that big differential going forward. And I think that, that issue will be minimized.

嗯，我們確實重整了與 WGL 的部分合約。他們遇到的部分困難在於，他們在 TCO 系統上於某個受限的點位接收我們天然氣、並以特定方式購買的能力受到了限制。因此這成了問題，我們不得不把天然氣轉移到較差的市場，實現價格較低，並承擔一些損害賠償。我們所做的是把該合約的影響中和掉——因此改為從年底開始，隨著 WV 全線完工一路延伸到維吉尼亞州 Loudoun，我們將把天然氣交付到 Cove Point 區域。在那邊他們接收天然氣不會有這些限制。所以我們的解法是降低並轉移接收點。因此我們不認為未來還會有那麼大的價差。我想那個問題會被降到最低。

Great. And just final question is just kind of going back to the Analyst Day. You guys highlighted about $1.3 billion per annum in D&C spending on a consolidated basis between 2018 through 2020. One of the questions we've gotten is just, can you help us maybe reconcile that? Because your lateral lengths are kind of increasing kind of 8% to 10% between '18 and '20. We're in a bit of an inflationary environment, and you do have a higher completed well count. So maybe just give us a bit of comfort level on the $1.3 billion of D&C spending between '18 and '20.

很好。最後一個問題，回到分析師日。你們強調在 2018 到 2020 年間，以合併口徑每年約 13 億美元的鑽井與完井（D&C）支出。我們收到的一個問題是，能否協助我們對齊這個數字？因為你們的水平段長度在 2018 到 2020 年間大約增加 8% 到 10%。我們也處在有些通膨的環境，而且你們的完井井數更高。所以請給我們一些信心，說明 2018 到 2020 年間每年 13 億美元的 D&C 支出是如何成立的。

Yes. And we have put out a new slide yesterday, and it's in the -- I think the presentation's labeled, CS Summit, and it's Page 48. So it's in the appendix, but there's a slide there that takes you through each year. And you can see, part of the difference is it's really driven by the wells that you're working on during the year, not so much the wells that are completed because you may complete a well in January but the cost really happened in the previous year and so on and so forth. So this slide kind of takes you through that and normalizes for the wells that are actually being worked on in a given year. And then it also points out that we are assuming some pickup in stages per day going from 4.5 this year to 5.5 over that 3 years kind of ratably. And then, also, we do have some concurrent operations baked in there. So you can see those numbers, and then it nets you down to that average of $1.3 billion a year. But check out that slide on the CS Energy Summit presentation yesterday, Page 48.

是的。我們昨天發布了一張新的投影片，在——我想簡報標題是 CS Summit，位於第 48 頁。它在附錄裡，但那張投影片會帶你逐年看過。你會看到，差異的一部分其實主要是由你在當年正在施工的井所驅動，而不完全是由已完井的井所驅動，因為你可能在 1 月完井，但成本其實發生在前一年，依此類推。所以這張投影片會帶你走過這些，並針對某一年實際正在施工的井做標準化處理。另外它也指出，我們假設每天壓裂段數會有所提升，從今年的 4.5 段/天，在這 3 年期間以相對均衡的方式提升到 5.5 段/天。此外，我們也把一些並行作業納入假設。所以你可以看到那些數字，最後會推導到平均每年 13 億美元。不過請去看昨天 CS Energy Summit 簡報第 48 頁那張投影片。

The next -- (Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Jeoffrey Lambujon with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

下一個——（接線員指示）下一個問題來自 Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. 的 Jeoffrey Lambujon。

As you get to the free cash flow you highlight, how do you prioritize your options when it comes to using what you generate? You talked about leverage targets, but how do you balance drilling versus inventory adds versus shareholder returns?

當你們談到所強調的自由現金流時，對於如何運用所產生的資金，你們會如何排序各種選項的優先順序？你們提到槓桿目標，但在鑽井、增加庫存（inventory）以及股東回報之間，你們如何取得平衡？

Yes. We like our drilling plans. So no plans to change that relative to what we said at the Analyst Day. And what we said at Analyst Day was we're prioritizing deleveraging at the current time, but we're also very focused on shareholder returns. So it will be a balance of those, and we'll see how things play out. There's some sensitivity to that cash flow. It could be quite a bit higher with our liquids prices. It could be a bit lower if liquids prices go lower. So this is something we'll just have to determine quarter-by-quarter, year-by-year. But the good news is there's a nice bucket there, a nice-sized bucket of capital to allocate.

是的。我們喜歡我們的鑽井計畫。所以相較於我們在分析師日所說的內容，沒有要改變的計畫。而我們在分析師日說的是，目前我們優先降低槓桿，但同時也非常聚焦於股東回報。因此會在兩者之間取得平衡，我們也會看事情如何發展。現金流對此有一定敏感度。若液體（油品/NGL）價格走高，現金流可能會高出不少。若液體價格走低，現金流也可能會低一些。所以這會是我們必須按季、按年來決定的事情。但好消息是，我們有一個不錯的資金池、一個相當可觀的資金池可供配置。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Michael Kennedy for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Michael Kennedy，請他做任何結語。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us on our conference call today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to us. Thanks again.

感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。如果你們還有任何問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。再次感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議已結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。