Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Antero Resources Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2017 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示) 請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Kennedy, Senior Vice President of Finance. Thank you.

現在我想將會議交給財務資深副總裁 Michael Kennedy。謝謝。

Thank you for joining us and for Antero's Third Quarter 2017 Investor Conference Call.

感謝各位加入我們，並參與 Antero 2017 年第三季投資人電話會議。

We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，接著開放問答。

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中進行說明。

Additionally, we have revised our corporate website presentation, which is separate from our earnings call presentation, and can be found on the Antero Resources website.

此外，我們也已更新公司網站簡報（不同於本次財報電話會議簡報），可在 Antero Resources 網站上找到。

Before we start our comments I would like to first remind you that, during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在開始發言之前，我想先提醒各位，在本次電話會議中，Antero 管理團隊將作出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。實際結果與成果可能與此類陳述中所表達、暗示或預測者有重大差異。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Paul Rady，以及總裁兼財務長 Glen Warren。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

現在我把電話交給 Paul。

Thank you, Mike, and thank you to everybody for listening to the call today.

謝謝你，Mike，也謝謝各位今天收聽本次電話會議。

In my comments, I'm going to provide an operational update with a focus on our long lateral drilling and our continued productivity gains. I'll then describe our significant exposure to the rising liquids pricing environment and finish with a discussion on how this impacts our long-term capital budget and development plans. Glen will then highlight our third quarter financial results, provide an update on our new credit facility agreement and touch on the recent delevering program that we completed in September. He will then round out his commentary with a discussion on Antero's long-term financial outlook as we transition from a company that has historically outspent cash flow to one that expects to generate free cash flow in the coming years.

在我的發言中，我將提供營運更新，重點放在我們的長水平段鑽井以及持續的生產力提升。接著我會說明我們在液體價格上升環境中的顯著曝險，並以討論這對我們長期資本預算與開發計畫的影響作結。之後 Glen 將重點說明第三季財務結果，更新我們新的授信融資協議，並提及我們在 9 月完成的近期去槓桿計畫。最後，他將以討論 Antero 的長期財務展望作結：我們正從一家歷來資本支出高於現金流的公司，轉型為一家預期在未來幾年產生自由現金流的公司。

I'll begin my discussion with the continued productivity gains we are seeing from our higher intensity completions. On Slide #2, titled Higher Intensity Completions are Increasing EURs, we have provided an updated chart showing the impact we are seeing from the various proppant intensity levels in the Marcellus. The black dash line represents a 2.0 Bcf per thousand wellhead EUR type curve, and the green line demonstrates that aggregate production from our 1,500-pound per foot advanced completions dating back to early 2016 support that type curve. The red and blue lines represent the average cumulative wellhead production per well for 1,875- and 2,500-pound per foot completions.

我先從我們在更高強度完井所帶來的持續生產力提升談起。在第 2 張投影片「更高強度完井正在提高 EUR」中，我們提供了更新圖表，顯示在 Marcellus 不同支撐劑強度水準所帶來的影響。黑色虛線代表每千口井井口 EUR 2.0 Bcf 的型態曲線，而綠線顯示自 2016 年初以來我們每英尺 1,500 磅的進階完井之彙總產量支持該型態曲線。紅線與藍線則代表每英尺 1,875 磅與 2,500 磅完井的單井平均累積井口產量。

As you recall, we showed this same slide during the second quarter earnings call and the 2,500-pound per foot completions were still in the very early innings of production. As you can see from the update, the 2,500-pound per foot completions continue to significantly outperform the 2.0 Bcf per 1,000 wellhead type curve by an average of 17% with over 240 days of production. While it is still early as it relates to assigning a new type curve to 2,500-pound per foot completions, we remain positive about the benefits of the increased proppant intensity. The continued productivity gains are one of the major factors that have enabled us to remove significant capital from our long-term budget plans while still delivering the same attractive production growth.

各位應該記得，我們在第二季財報電話會議中也展示過同一張投影片，當時每英尺 2,500 磅完井仍處於產量的非常早期階段。從本次更新可見，每英尺 2,500 磅完井在超過 240 天的生產期間，平均仍較每千口井井口 2.0 Bcf 型態曲線高出 17%，表現顯著更佳。雖然就為每英尺 2,500 磅完井指定新的型態曲線而言仍為時尚早，但我們對提高支撐劑強度所帶來的效益仍保持正面看法。這些持續的生產力提升，是使我們得以在仍交付同樣具吸引力的產量成長之下，從長期預算規劃中移除大量資本支出的主要因素之一。

The second operational factor I'd like to highlight is our continued industry leadership in drilling long laterals. Directing you to Slide #3 titled Longer Laterals Materially Improve Economics. The histogram on the middle of the page illustrates Antero's drilling program by lateral lengths. The green bars present the wells drilled to-date, the red bars represent the 2017 program and the orange bars represent our 2018 to 2020 planned laterals on our existing acreage position.

我想強調的第二個營運因素，是我們在鑽探長水平段方面持續保持產業領先地位。請看第 3 張投影片「更長水平段可大幅改善經濟性」。頁面中間的直方圖按水平段長度呈現 Antero 的鑽井計畫。綠色長條代表迄今已鑽井，紅色長條代表 2017 年計畫，橘色長條代表我們在既有持有土地上的 2018 至 2020 年規劃水平段。

As shown by the green bars, Antero has been a leader in drilling longer laterals with nearly 900 wells drilled at an average lateral length of 8,250 feet, and 230 of those were drilled with a lateral length longer than 10,000 feet. If you look at the red and orange bars, you will see how the distribution of wells shifts further to the right as we have focused much of our 2017 to 2020 drilling program on lateral lengths in the 9,000- to 15,000-foot plus range. Longer laterals at 9,000-plus feet generate materially higher well economics, as you can see at the bottom of Slide #3.

如綠色長條所示，Antero 一直是鑽探更長水平段的領先者，已鑽近 900 口井，平均水平段長度為 8,250 英尺，其中 230 口井的水平段長度超過 10,000 英尺。若看紅色與橘色長條，會看到隨著我們將 2017 至 2020 年鑽井計畫的重心放在 9,000 至 15,000 英尺以上區間，井位分布進一步向右移動。如第 3 張投影片底部所示，9,000 英尺以上的更長水平段可帶來顯著更高的單井經濟性。

As many of you know, Antero has done an extensive technical analysis on acreage configurations, well results and the geology underlying our competitors in the core of the Marcellus and the Utica. Based on extensive analysis, Antero holds over 30% of the long lateral inventory beyond 10,000 feet, outpacing our closest peer by a wide margin. In fact, 24% of our undrilled well inventory is made up of laterals longer than 10,000 feet. So not only do we have the quantity of locations, but we also have the quality in core locations that have the contiguous acreage to support a long lateral drilling program. The ability to continue pushing the average lateral length of our locations has been a key factor in the capital savings we have achieved to-date and expect to achieve over the next several years.

許多人都知道，Antero 已就 Marcellus 與 Utica 核心區域中，我們競爭對手的土地配置、井結果以及其下方地質進行了廣泛的技術分析。基於大量分析，Antero 持有超過 30% 的 10,000 英尺以上長水平段庫存，並以顯著差距領先最接近的同業。事實上，我們未鑽井庫存中有 24% 由超過 10,000 英尺的水平段構成。因此，我們不僅擁有足夠的井位數量，也在核心區位擁有具備連續土地以支撐長水平段鑽井計畫的高品質井位。持續推升我們井位的平均水平段長度，一直是我們迄今已實現、並預期在未來數年持續實現之資本節省的關鍵因素。

Turning to Slide #4, titled Improving Capital Efficiencies. If you compare the long-term plans we had in place around this time last year, which is represented by the yellow bars on this slide, with our current outlook, which is shown in the orange bars, we've been able to remove 200 wells from our development plan through 2020. We expect this to result in nearly $1.5 billion of capital savings from our budgets over the same time period while delivering nearly the same production growth over that time. This is a true testament to the operational gains we've made to-date from increased efficiency and productivity and a focus on longer lateral development and rightsizing the DUC backlog.

接著看第 4 張投影片「資本效率改善」。若將我們去年此時的長期計畫（本投影片以黃色長條表示）與目前展望（以橘色長條顯示）相比，我們已能在至 2020 年的開發計畫中減少 200 口井。我們預期這將使同一期間的預算資本支出節省近 15 億美元，同時在該期間交付幾乎相同的產量成長。這充分證明我們迄今透過提升效率與生產力、聚焦更長水平段開發，以及適度調整 DUC（已鑽未完井）庫存所取得的營運成果。

As outlined in the table at the bottom of the page, these improvements translate into flat D&C capital spending in 2018 at $1.3 billion and a small increase in 2019 and 2020 levels to only $1.5 billion each year. We are excited about this progress and expect it will play a major role in effort efforts to spend within cash flow and deliver substantial value to shareholders.

如同頁面底部表格所示，這些改善使得2018年的鑽井與完井（D&C）資本支出維持持平於13億美元，並使2019年與2020年的水準僅小幅增加至每年15億美元。我們對這項進展感到振奮，並預期它將在我們努力將支出控制在現金流範圍內、並為股東創造可觀價值方面扮演重要角色。

Shifting gears a bit. I want to spend a few minutes discussing the recent run-up in natural gas liquids prices and what that means for our business and long-term plans. Directing you to Slide #5 titled Largest NGL producer in the U.S. We are -- Antero is currently the largest producer of NGLs in the U.S, with 105,000 barrels a day of NGL production during the quarter. On top of that, we also have the highest NGL revenue exposure as a percent of our prehedged total product revenues at 34%. As you know, we've built our business over the years with a strong focus on the liquids-rich areas of Appalachia and we're now very well positioned to capitalize on the rising liquids price environment. This is a key differentiator for Antero relative to our peers.

稍微轉換一下話題。我想花幾分鐘談談近期天然氣液（NGL）價格的上漲，以及這對我們的業務與長期計畫意味著什麼。請看第5頁投影片，標題為「美國最大的NGL生產商」。我們——Antero目前是美國最大的NGL生產商，本季NGL產量為每日105,000桶。此外，以我們避險前的總產品營收計算，我們的NGL營收曝險比例也最高，達34%。如各位所知，多年來我們在阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）富含液體的區域建立業務，並且目前已具備非常有利的定位，可把握液體價格上升的環境。這是Antero相較同業的一項關鍵差異化優勢。

To provide you with more color on this, I'll point you to Slide #6 entitled Significant Increase in C3+ NGL netbacks. Since 2015, Antero's realized C3+ NGL price has increased 17%, and looking ahead, based on strip pricing, we expect this to continue for the years ahead.

為了讓各位更了解，我請各位看第6頁投影片，標題為「C3+ NGL淨回收（netbacks）顯著提升」。自2015年以來，Antero實現的C3+ NGL價格已上升17%；展望未來，根據期貨曲線（strip pricing），我們預期這一趨勢在未來幾年仍將延續。

In fact, as outlined on Slide 7, titled Powerful C3+ Pricing Upside Exposure, we expect 2018 cash flow from our C3+ NGL production to increase by nearly $390 million from 200 -- from 2017 levels. Glen will provide more details in a moment, but the combination of the operational gains and improvement in NGL pricing has resulted in our ability to fund our expected drilling and completion capital needs with cash flow for operations, providing us with the ability to return capital to shareholders in the coming years.

事實上，如第7頁投影片所示，標題為「強勁的C3+定價上行曝險」，我們預期2018年來自C3+ NGL產量的現金流將較2017年水準增加近3.9億美元。Glen稍後會提供更多細節，但營運改善與NGL定價提升的結合，使我們能以營運現金流支應預期的鑽井與完井資本需求，並讓我們在未來幾年具備回饋股東資本的能力。

With that, I'll turn it over to Glen for his comments.

接下來，我把時間交給Glen發表他的評論。

Thank you, Paul. In my comments today, I will highlight our third quarter financial results, provide an update on our new credit facility and expand on the completion of the recent delevering program. I will conclude with a discussion on Antero's transition from an outspend model to a free cash flow model.

謝謝你，Paul。在我今天的評論中，我將重點說明我們第三季的財務結果，更新我們新的信貸融資安排，並進一步說明近期去槓桿計畫的完成情況。最後，我將討論Antero如何從「超支」模式轉型為「自由現金流」模式。

Let's first discuss some of the key highlights from the quarter. Production averaged a record 2.3 Bcfe per day for the quarter including a record 112,000 barrels a day of liquids. The liquids production during the quarter consisted of 6,900 barrels a day of oil and over 105,000 barrels a day of NGLs, representing a 38% increase from the prior year quarter and a 9% increase sequentially.

我們先談本季的一些關鍵亮點。本季平均產量創新高，達每日23億立方英尺當量（Bcfe），其中液體產量亦創新高，達每日112,000桶。本季液體產量包括每日6,900桶原油與超過每日105,000桶NGL，較去年同期增加38%，較前一季增加9%。

Moving on to financial highlights from the quarter. We generated $336 million in consolidated EBITDAX excluding the impact from the recent $750 million hedge monetization, which I'll touch on in a moment. This represents a 3% increase from the prior year quarter, resulting in a consolidated EBITDAX margin of $1.58 per Mcfe. We realized $2.71 per Mcf before hedges on our gas production during the quarter, representing a 5% decrease compared with the prior year quarter and a 14% decrease sequentially.

接著看本季的財務亮點。我們產生了3.36億美元的合併EBITDAX（不含近期7.5億美元避險變現的影響，我稍後會提到）。這較去年同期增加3%，使合併EBITDAX利潤率達每Mcfe 1.58美元。本季我們天然氣產量在避險前的實現價格為每Mcf 2.71美元，較去年同期下降5%，較前一季下降14%。

The decrease in realized gas pricing for the quarter was driven by 2 separate contract disputes with Washington Gas Light Company and affiliates, which we'll refer to as WGL, and South Jersey Resources Group and affiliates, which we'll refer to as South Jersey. The contract disputes resulted in a combined $0.26 per Mcf negative impact to our realized natural gas prices for the quarter.

本季天然氣實現價格下滑，主要是由於與Washington Gas Light Company及其關係企業（我們稱為WGL），以及South Jersey Resources Group及其關係企業（我們稱為South Jersey）之間的兩起獨立合約爭議所致。這些合約爭議合計使本季我們的天然氣實現價格受到每Mcf 0.26美元的負面影響。

Without the negative impact of both contract disputes, Antero realized natural gas price before hedges would have been $2.97 per Mcf or a $0.03 differential to the average NYMEX Henry Hub price for the quarter, and our EBITDAX would have come in at $383 million or $47 million higher, resulting in a consolidated EBITDAX margin of $1.80 per Mcfe.

若排除兩起合約爭議的負面影響，Antero本季避險前的天然氣實現價格將為每Mcf 2.97美元，與本季NYMEX Henry Hub平均價格的價差為0.03美元；而我們的EBITDAX將為3.83億美元，增加4,700萬美元，使合併EBITDAX利潤率達每Mcfe 1.80美元。

Looking ahead beyond 2017, we do not expect a material impact to our realized pricing and cash flow from these contract disputes due to the expected startup of the Cove Point LNG export terminal in the first quarter of 2018, additional takeaway capacity expected to be placed in service throughout 2018 and a narrowing of regional basis differentials based on current strip pricing. We are confident in our position for both cases and will continue to seek damages and resolution in both disputes.

展望2017年之後，由於預期Cove Point LNG出口終端將於2018年第一季啟用、2018年期間將有額外外運（takeaway）能力投入服務，以及根據目前期貨曲線（strip pricing）區域基差價差將收斂，我們不預期這些合約爭議會對我們的實現價格與現金流造成重大影響。我們對兩案的立場充滿信心，並將持續在兩起爭議中尋求損害賠償與解決方案。

As it relates to liquids, we had an excellent quarter with a realized unhedged oil price of $42.50 per barrel and a hedged oil price of $45.40 per barrel, which represents a $5.66 and $2.76 differential from NYMEX-WTI oil, respectively, for the quarter. We realized an unhedged C3+ NGL price of $28.92 per barrel during the quarter, which represents a 65% increase from the prior-year quarter and a 60% NYMEX -- 60% of NYMEX-WTI.

就液體而言，本季表現非常出色：避險前的原油實現價格為每桶42.50美元，避險後的原油價格為每桶45.40美元；分別較本季NYMEX-WTI原油價格折價5.66美元與2.76美元。本季我們避險前的C3+ NGL實現價格為每桶28.92美元，較去年同期增加65%，相當於NYMEX-WTI的60%。

Further liquids revenues for the quarter made up a record 38% of total product revenues with C3+ revenues making up 34% of total product revenues. The improvement in C3+ NGL realized pricing was driven primarily by the strengthening of Mont Belvieu pricing relative to WTI driven by an increase in export volumes.

此外，本季液體營收占總產品營收的比例創新高，達38%，其中C3+營收占總產品營收的34%。C3+ NGL實現價格的改善，主要是因出口量增加，帶動Mont Belvieu價格相對於WTI走強。

When you combine the improvement in liquids price realizations with the fact that Antero has become the largest NGL producer in the U.S., you really get a sense for the exposure we have to a rising liquids pricing environment that Paul discussed earlier.

當你把液體實現價格的改善，與Antero已成為美國最大的NGL生產商這一事實結合起來，就能真正理解我們對Paul先前提到的液體價格上升環境所具備的曝險程度。

We built our business around the liquids-rich areas of Appalachia. The rising liquids price environment plays a major role in cash flow growth and value creation at Antero and we plan to continue building on that progress.

我們的業務是以阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）富含液體的區域為核心建立的。液體價格上升的環境在Antero的現金流成長與價值創造中扮演重要角色，我們也計畫持續在此進展上再接再厲。

Transitioning to our funding needs moving forward. I wanted to briefly discuss our new credit facility that we closed on in late October. We entered into a new upstream credit facility with a borrowing base of $4.5 billion and lender commitments of $2.5 billion. While we had demand from the existing bank group for over $3.5 billion on a $3 billion ask, we ultimately reduced the ask and commitments to $2.5 billion. This represented a sizable reduction of $1.5 billion from the previous commitments on our old facility of $4 billion. This reflects the fact that we are essentially undrawn on our facility today and plan to primarily fund our drilling program with cash flow from operations and distributions from our ownership in Antero Midstream. The new credit facility, along with the recent delevering program, position us well to grow production attractively while spending within cash flow and continue to delever the balance sheet. This will ultimately provide us with more optionality over time. Additionally, there are fall-away covenants in place in the credit facility that will enable us to go unsecured should we receive an investment grade credit rating. This illustrates the significant confidence placed in our business by the bank group.

接著談我們未來的資金需求。我想簡要說明我們在10月底完成的新信貸融資安排。我們簽訂了一項新的上游信貸融資，借款基礎（borrowing base）為45億美元，貸款人承諾額度為25億美元。雖然現有銀行團對我們提出的30億美元需求（ask）提供了超過35億美元的意向，但我們最終下調需求與承諾額度至25億美元。這相較於舊融資安排40億美元的承諾額度，等於大幅減少15億美元。這反映出我們目前基本上未動用該融資額度，並計畫主要以營運現金流及我們持有Antero Midstream股權所帶來的分配款來支應鑽井計畫。新的信貸融資加上近期去槓桿計畫，使我們在將支出控制於現金流範圍內的同時，能以具吸引力的方式成長產量，並持續降低資產負債表槓桿。這最終將隨時間推移為我們提供更多選擇性。此外，該信貸融資設有可撤銷（fall-away）的契約條款，使我們一旦取得投資級信用評等，即可轉為無擔保融資。這顯示銀行團對我們業務抱持高度信心。

Now to expand on the completion of our recent delevering program as previously announced and shown in Slide #8, titled $1 Billion Delevering Program Completed, we successfully monetized over $1 billion of non-E&P assets in September 2017 including the sale of 10 million common units of Antero Midstream and the restructuring of a portion of the commodity hedge portfolio. As you can see on the bottom chart of the slide, we restructured the hedge swap prices to $3.50 per MMBtu in 2018 and 2019 and $3.25 in 2020. This allowed us to bring forward the value of $750 million in hedge gains while not changing the overall hedge volume and maintaining some significant commodity price protection. Specifically, we have approximately 80% of targeted natural gas production hedged through 2020 at $3.43 per MMBtu and future unrealized hedge gains of $1.2 billion through 2023 based on September 30 strip pricing.

現在進一步說明我們近期去槓桿計畫的完成情況，如先前所宣布並在第8頁投影片（標題為「10億美元去槓桿計畫完成」）所示，我們已於2017年9月成功變現超過10億美元的非E&P資產，包括出售Antero Midstream的1,000萬個普通單位，以及對部分商品避險投資組合進行重整。如您在該投影片下方圖表所見，我們將避險掉期價格重整為2018年與2019年每MMBtu 3.50美元，以及2020年3.25美元。這使我們得以提前實現7.5億美元的避險收益價值，同時不改變整體避險量，並維持相當程度的商品價格保護。具體而言，依據9月30日的遠期曲線（strip）定價，我們約有80%的目標天然氣產量已避險至2020年，避險價格為每MMBtu 3.43美元，且至2023年仍有12億美元的未實現避險收益。

It is important to note that the monetization program was also very tax-efficient due to the expected utilization of a portion of Antero's $1.6 billion of net operating losses.

需要特別指出的是，由於預期可運用Antero 16億美元淨營運虧損（NOL）的一部分，該變現計畫在稅務上也非常具效率。

The program was important for Antero as it effectively reduced our stand-alone E&P leverage ratio from 3.2x at June 30 to 2.6x as of September 30.

此計畫對Antero而言相當重要，因為它有效地將我們獨立E&P槓桿比率由6月30日的3.2倍降至9月30日的2.6倍。

The sale of the AM units was an opportunistic event and really highlighted the true value held by AR through its ownership in AM, value that was monetized at a tight discount to the market value and on a tax-free basis due to the NOLs I mentioned.

出售AM單位是一項把握時機的交易，也真正凸顯AR透過持有AM所蘊含的真實價值；該價值以相對市場價值僅小幅折價的方式變現，且因我先前提到的NOL而以免稅方式完成。

Moving on. I wanted to discuss how the efficiencies Paul described earlier, combined with our liquids upside exposure, have positioned us to transition from an outspend model to a free cash flow generating model. Slide #9, entitled Capital Efficiency Drives Elimination of Outspend shows Antero's consolidated drilling and completion CapEx versus its stand-alone E&P cash flow, which represents cash flow from operations plus AM distributions. As you can see on the right-hand side of the chart, beginning in 2019, Antero expects to completely fund drilling capital with upstream cash flow, all the while maintaining a 20% production compound annual growth rate from 2017 through 2020. This speaks to the strides we continue to make on the operational front with our advanced completions and continued operational efficiencies that include drilling longer laterals and reductions in drilling and completion cycle times. To reiterate a point made earlier, we have successfully eliminated $1.5 billion from our development budget through 2020 while maintaining nearly the same production growth trajectory. This not only results in a significant increase in overall corporate returns, but also generates free cash flow beginning in 2019.

接下來。我想討論Paul先前描述的效率提升，結合我們對液體（liquids）上行的曝險，如何使我們得以從超支（outspend）模式轉型為可產生自由現金流的模式。第9頁投影片「資本效率推動消除超支」展示了Antero合併口徑的鑽井與完井資本支出（CapEx），相對於其獨立E&P現金流；該現金流代表營運現金流加上AM配息。如您在圖表右側所見，自2019年起，Antero預期可完全以上游現金流支應鑽井資本，同時在2017年至2020年間維持20%的產量複合年成長率。這反映我們在營運面持續取得的進展，包括先進完井技術與持續的營運效率提升，例如鑽更長的水平段（laterals）以及縮短鑽井與完井週期時間。重申先前提到的一點：在維持幾乎相同的產量成長軌跡下，我們已成功在至2020年的開發預算中削減15億美元。這不僅帶來整體公司報酬的顯著提升，也使我們自2019年起開始產生自由現金流。

In closing, I will point you to Slide #10, titled Attractive Long Term Outlook where you can see a snapshot of our strategy and long-term outlook from an upstream perspective. The chart displays the attractive 20% production growth CAGR through the end of the decade that will generate free cash flow, further reduce leverage and ultimately put us in a position to consider returning capital to our shareholders. The completion of the delevering program is a huge step in our strategy to reduce leverage to the 2x range. This strategy is geared toward the long-term vision of continuously developing our 53 Tcfe of 3P reserves at midyear for many years ahead, which we believe will generate the most value creation to our shareholders.

最後，我請各位參考第10頁投影片「具吸引力的長期展望」，您可從上游角度看到我們策略與長期展望的概覽。圖表顯示至本十年末仍具吸引力的20%產量成長CAGR，將帶來自由現金流、進一步降低槓桿，並最終使我們具備考慮回饋資本給股東的條件。去槓桿計畫的完成，是我們將槓桿降至約2倍區間策略中的一大步。此策略著眼於長期願景：在未來多年持續開發我們年中口徑的53 Tcfe之3P儲量；我們相信這將為股東創造最大價值。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我把電話會議交給接線員進行提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Subhasish Chandra of Guggenheim.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自Guggenheim的Subhasish Chandra。

Paul, so the -- I guess, you have a lengthy discussion of the ongoing litigation, et cetera, et cetera. Is there any sort of imminent timing on those two ongoing issues?

Paul，所以——我想你對持續中的訴訟等議題做了很長的說明，等等。那兩個仍在進行中的問題，在時間點上是否有任何迫近的進展？

No, I would say it's going to unfold over the next year or so, Subhasish.

沒有，我會說它大概會在接下來一年左右逐步發展，Subhasish。

Got it. So we should see this being continued to be reported as a -- in your NGL guidance rather than showing up somewhere as a litigation item?

了解。所以我們應該會看到你們持續把它以——在你們的NGL指引中揭露，而不是在某處以訴訟項目呈現？

Yes, and it won't be the NGL side. It'll be the natural gas side, of course. But yes, we'll continue to monitor it and to report it. We do think that the conditions will improve over really the very near-term foreseeable future, both with narrowing of basis between different indices as well as Cove Point comes on that shifts deliveries over to Cove Point and mitigates some of the issue with WGL's inability to receive gas at that certain point called Braxton.

是的，而且不會是在NGL那一端。當然會是在天然氣那一端。但沒錯，我們會持續監控並揭露。我們確實認為在非常接近、可預見的未來，情況會改善：一方面不同指數之間的基差將收斂；另一方面Cove Point投運後，交付將轉向Cove Point，從而緩解WGL在名為Braxton的特定點位無法接收天然氣所造成的部分問題。

Okay. And I guess what I was getting at was so if there's a positive resolution, final resolution, for you guys, that's going to be a net positive surprise rather than being somewhere on the balance sheet?

好的。我想問的是，如果對你們而言有正向的解決、最終解決，那會是一個淨正向的驚喜，而不是反映在資產負債表的某個地方？

Yes, that's right, Subhasish.

是的，沒錯，Subhasish。

Okay, okay. Perfect. And my second question is on the C3+ proportion of total NGL barrels, how do you see that sort of changing in '18, if at all, from '17?

好，好。完美。我的第二個問題是關於C3+在總NGL桶數中的占比，你們怎麼看2018年相較2017年會如何變化（如果會變的話）？

I think it's going to be roughly the same proportion or maybe even climbing a little bit on C3+, that if we're recovering roughly 30,000 barrels a day now, we may step it up to as high as 40,000. But the C3+ proportion will grow a little bit above that proportion of 30 out of 150.

我認為占比大致會差不多，甚至C3+可能還會略為上升；如果我們目前回收約3萬桶/日，可能會提高到最高4萬桶/日。但C3+占比會比目前150桶中30桶的比例再高一些。

And Subhasish, I would point out there's a new slide, 13, in the appendix that helps you, I think, with some of the math on what proportionality we have of propane and butane, et cetera, within our barrel.

另外，Subhasish，我想指出附錄中新增了一張第13頁投影片，我認為它能幫助你做一些計算，了解我們每桶中丙烷、丁烷等的比例結構。

And the next question comes from Neal Dingmann of SunTrust.

下一個問題來自SunTrust的Neal Dingmann。

Looking just at that Slide 13 and 34, how positive now you mentioned with the NGLs just, how obviously fantastic those prices continue to be. I know you've always allocated a large amount of capital that way, but again looking at that high gas or looking at particularly on 34, the highly rich gas condensate, the strong payback of 1.2 years. For '18, will you allocate any more capital towards that region?

就看第13頁和第34頁投影片，你剛提到NGL現在的情況有多正面——顯然那些價格持續非常亮眼。我知道你們一直以來都把大量資本配置到那個方向，但再看那個高含氣，或特別是第34頁的高富液氣凝析油（condensate），回收期強勁、為1.2年。在2018年，你們會把更多資本配置到那個區域嗎？

In 2018, we're primarily drilling rich gas locations throughout, so yes, we're pretty much full allocation towards rich gas in 2018 and over the next several years.

在2018年，我們主要是在各處鑽探富液氣（rich gas）井位，所以是的，2018年以及未來幾年我們幾乎是全面配置到富液氣。

Okay. And then just one last follow-up. You were active earlier in the year and last year on acreage acquisitions, I think now with over 110,000 or 115,000-plus acres. Will you continue to look at that? Or now the inventory life that you have being so large, will that die down a little bit?

好的。然後最後再追問一個問題。我記得你們今年年初以及去年在礦權面積收購方面相當積極，現在總面積已超過110,000或115,000英畝以上。你們會繼續尋找這類機會嗎？還是說，鑽井庫存年限已經非常充足，這方面會稍微降溫一些？

I think it'll die down a little bit, Neal, that our focus is really -- certainly, we continue to add around the edges and any tracts that we have, big tracts, in the middle of our acreage block. But a lot of what you're doing is now just ticking and tying and getting the last few percent in each of our drill site units. We typically, by the time we spud, we're at quite often 100% working interest. So today, we might be with locations that are on the book at 95% or so on the books that a lot of that is just the final stages of filling in.

Neal，我認為會稍微降溫一些；我們的重點其實是——當然，我們仍會在邊緣地帶補強，並且針對我們現有礦權區塊中間的任何地塊、尤其是大的地塊，持續加以整合。但你們現在看到我們做的很多工作，其實只是把每一個鑽井井位單元中最後幾個百分點補齊、把細節對齊。通常到我們開鑽（spud）時，我們往往已經達到100%的作業權益（working interest）。所以以今天來看，帳上某些井位可能只有約95%左右的權益，很多只是處於最後補齊的階段。

Got it. Lastly, if I could just add -- stick one last one in. That 3-year outlook that you have, what rig plan is that based on?

了解。最後，如果我可以再補充——再塞進最後一個問題。你們提出的3年展望，是以什麼樣的鑽機（rig）計畫為基礎？

It's kind of similar, this year's rig crop plans on a 6- to 7-rig program. That's the same in 2018, you'll see that capital program as flat and then it steps up about 2 rigs into '19. So about an 8- or 9-rig program in '19 and '20.

大致類似；今年的鑽機配置計畫是以6到7部鑽機的方案為基礎。2018年也是一樣，你會看到資本計畫大致持平，然後到2019年會增加大約2部鑽機。因此在2019年與2020年大約是8到9部鑽機的方案。

We got so efficient on our drilling that we're down now to 12 days sort of spud to spud on these 9,000-foot laterals, so it just doesn't take that many rigs to deliver that program.

我們在鑽井效率上提升很多，現在在這些9,000英尺水平段（lateral）的井上，從一次開鑽到下一次開鑽（spud to spud）大約只要12天，所以要完成那個計畫其實不需要那麼多鑽機。

And the next question comes from Drew Venker of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的Drew Venker。

Wanted to just go back to your prepared remarks talking about potential return of cash to shareholders and just would like to hear how you guys are thinking about that, the indicators that it's the right time to return cash to shareholders and what method you might go about that, if it's buybacks or additional distribution through dividends?

我想回到你們事先準備的發言中提到可能向股東返還現金（return of cash to shareholders）的部分，想請你們談談你們如何思考這件事：哪些指標顯示現在是向股東返還現金的適當時點？以及你們可能採用什麼方式，例如庫藏股／回購（buybacks）或透過股利（dividends）增加配發？

Yes, and I don't think I have any directional on that last part, but I think the real message here is just the way the equation is changed over time through all these capital efficiencies and the fact that we're actually into the cash flow -- free cash flow generation mode here now. And that's really just a small handful of companies out there who can grow at these kind of attractive growth rates and deliver free cash flow. So it really just presents a lot of optionality for us going forward. I think, some rough numbers using this $54 oil and $3 gas, as you should look out over the next number of years, I mean, we expect to be generating somewhere in the $500 million range of free cash flow at AR stand-alone by the end of the decade and that grows as you go out beyond that sort of looking out towards 5 years. And so if you think about the balance sheet, we expect that to -- the leverage to decline pretty dramatically through that period. So it just presents a lot of optionality using those kind of assumptions. I mean we see our leverage going down below well under 2 towards the end of the decade and under 1x if you look out 5 years or so. So if you think about, say, a 2x target to your leverage, it just presents a lot of optionality upwards of $3 billion over 5 years that you could use for a number of things. It could be returning capital and that could be dividend program or stock buybacks, it could be consolidation, it could be increased drilling or simply letting the leverage decline towards that 1x. So a lot of options for our board to look at and we're sort of starting that discussion. It's a hot topic around the industry, but the message here is that we're in a position to look at -- to have those options. So that's pretty exciting for us.

是的，至於你最後那一段我不想給出任何方向性的承諾；但我認為真正的重點在於，隨著這些資本效率的提升，整個方程式隨時間已經改變，而且我們現在確實進入了現金流——自由現金流（free cash flow）產生的模式。而在市場上，能以這種具吸引力的成長率成長、同時又能產生自由現金流的公司其實只有少數。因此，這讓我們未來有很大的選擇彈性（optionality）。我用一些粗略數字來說明：以每桶54美元油價與每千立方英尺3美元天然氣價格為假設，往未來幾年看，我們預期到本十年末，AR單體（stand-alone）的自由現金流可望落在約5億美元的區間，而且再往外看、接近5年的時間尺度，還會持續成長。再看資產負債表，我們預期在那段期間槓桿（leverage）會相當明顯地下滑。所以在這些假設下，確實帶來很多選擇彈性。我們看到槓桿在本十年末會降到遠低於2，若往外看約5年，甚至可降到1倍以下（under 1x）。因此如果你以2倍槓桿作為目標來思考，未來5年大概會有高達30億美元以上的彈性資金，可用於多種用途。可以是返還資本——可能是股利計畫或股票回購；也可以是產業整併（consolidation）；也可以是增加鑽井；或是單純讓槓桿繼續下降到1倍左右。所以董事會有很多選項可以評估，我們也正開始進行這方面的討論。這在產業內是個熱門議題，但我們要傳達的訊息是：我們已經處在可以評估並擁有這些選項的位置。所以這對我們來說相當令人振奮。

Right, that makes sense. Just if I could follow up on that. I think your base plan through 2020 is assuming $54 oil. So if we happen to have higher oil prices or higher NGL realizations do you than in your base case plan, what do you do with that incremental cash?

好的，這很合理。如果我可以再追問。我想你們到2020年的基本計畫是假設油價54美元。那如果油價更高，或是NGL（天然氣液）實現價格高於你們基本情境計畫，你們會如何運用那部分增量現金？

Yes, we certainly have a lot of leverage to upside in oil prices. Just going up towards $60 a barrel generates quite a bit more free cash flow. So same options. It just you got more of it, certainly, over time, so that would be exciting for us. And we positioned the company strategically for this, of course, being very much focused on liquids rich and controlling -- holding 44 % of the future drilling locations in the liquids-rich areas of the Utica and the Marcellus. As we count them, we've done a lot of work on that over time just understanding where are the remaining locations and what companies hold them and we're highly confident in our position. So very well positioned for that kind of improvement in liquids prices, so we're hopeful.

是的，我們對油價上行確實有很大的槓桿。只要上升到每桶60美元，就能產生多得多的自由現金流。所以選項是一樣的，只是你手上的資金更多，且會隨時間累積，這對我們當然很令人興奮。而且我們也為此在策略上做好了布局：我們非常聚焦於富液（liquids rich）資產，並且掌握——持有尤提卡（Utica）與馬塞勒斯（Marcellus）富液區域未來鑽井井位的44%。我們長期在這方面做了大量工作，去理解剩餘井位在哪裡、由哪些公司持有，我們對自身的定位非常有信心。因此，對於液體價格改善所帶來的提升，我們的布局非常到位，我們也抱持期待。

Okay. And so, Glen, if I'm interpreting that right then. It sounds like preference would be either to redirect capital towards those higher liquids cut wells or maybe spend incremental capital instead of just using that free cash flow to pay down debt? Or was I reading that wrong?

好的。那麼，Glen，如果我理解得沒錯。聽起來你們的偏好可能是把資本重新導向那些液體占比更高的井，或者投入增量資本，而不是僅僅用自由現金流去償還債務？還是我解讀錯了？

No, undetermined. I was giving you all the options: return of capital, consolidation, more drilling or simply let the leverage decline. So there are a lot of options to be discussed as we get there. We're not quite there today, but we're getting very close and next year looks terrific. At those kind of price assumptions, we're only negative by $100 million or so from a free cash flow standpoint for the whole year and then by year-end we're free cash flow positive. So not quite to that point yet, but just sort of laying out the options for you that we'll be talking about at the board level.

不，尚未決定。我是在把所有選項都提供給你：返還資本、產業整併、增加鑽井，或是單純讓槓桿下降。所以等我們走到那一步時，還有很多選項需要討論。我們今天還沒完全到那個點，但已經非常接近了，而且明年看起來非常好。在那樣的價格假設下，從全年自由現金流角度來看，我們大概只會是負1億美元左右，到了年底就會轉為自由現金流為正。所以還沒完全到那個階段，但我只是先把我們在董事會層級將會討論的選項脈絡提供給你。

And the next question comes from Holly Stewart of Scotia Howard Weil.

下一個問題來自Scotia Howard Weil的Holly Stewart。

Just kind of looking at the activity right now, it looks like 5 rigs in the Marcellus with 3 crews and 1 in the Utica with 1 crew, how should we think about the long-term, I guess, 3-year outlook that you've provided and how this plan evolves in those 2 areas?

就目前觀察作業活動來看，似乎在 Marcellus 有 5 部鑽機、3 組作業隊，在 Utica 有 1 部鑽機、1 組作業隊；我們應該如何看待你們所提供的長期（我想是 3 年）展望，以及這項計畫在這兩個區域將如何演進？

Yes, I think the emphasis is going to be on the Marcellus over the next couple of years anyway. That's the plan that we've laid out. We do have a lot, 11 dry gas wells, ready to come online once Rover comes on in Ohio and so those are all completed and drilled out and ready to go. So we're just waiting on that Rover 1B phase to be completed. But other than that, I think you'll see us focused primarily on the Marcellus over the next few years, Holly, and on the rich gas within the Marcellus.

是的，我認為未來幾年重點本來就會放在 Marcellus。這就是我們所擬定的計畫。我們確實有很多——11 口乾氣井——一旦 Rover 在俄亥俄州投運就可上線，因此這些井都已完井、鑽完並準備就緒。所以我們只是等待 Rover 1B 階段完工。除此之外，我想未來幾年你會看到我們主要聚焦在 Marcellus，Holly，以及 Marcellus 裡的富氣（rich gas）。

Okay. And then since you mentioned the Rover 1B, how should we think about that capacity being filled? You've got the, what, 10 or 11 wells you referenced and those are ready to turn on. Would that fill up immediately and then -- not with those wells, but just, in general, would you plan to fill that up pretty quickly and then backfill other capacity? Or are you just going to fill that over time as the development plan works out?

好的。那既然你提到 Rover 1B，我們應該如何看待那部分運輸容量的填充？你提到的那 10 或 11 口井都已準備好投產。那會立刻把容量填滿嗎？然後——不是只靠那些井，而是一般而言——你們會計畫很快把它填滿，之後再用其他產量回填其他容量嗎？還是你們會隨著開發計畫的推進，逐步把它填滿？

Yes, Holly. It takes on the order of a year to 1.5 years to fill Rover. And as you know, 1B will come on by the end of the year, if not sooner, and then Phase 2 comes on by the end of the first quarter, we'd expect, to Sherwood. So we'll be filling Rover both with Utica gas, but more importantly with Marcellus gas. And so the netbacks to Rover work out pretty well, so that'll get preferentially filled relative to some of the other projects that will come on.

是的，Holly。大約需要 1 年到 1.5 年的時間才能把 Rover 的容量填滿。而如你所知，1B 會在年底前投運，甚至可能更早；接著第二階段我們預期會在第一季末前投運，通往 Sherwood。因此我們會用 Utica 的天然氣來填充 Rover，但更重要的是用 Marcellus 的天然氣。而且送到 Rover 的淨回收（netbacks）表現相當不錯，所以相較於其他即將上線的專案，Rover 會被優先填充。

Okay, great. And then one final one, if I could. Just what are the terms of those 2 contracts with WGL and then South Jersey, just thinking about length of contract term?

好的，很好。最後一個問題，如果可以的話。WGL 與 South Jersey 這兩份合約的條款是什麼？我主要想了解合約期限的長短。

Well, South Jersey is the simplest one that, I think, that runs out in April of 2019. So that one has -- that is 16 months to go, 18 months to go. And that one is the smaller one at 80 million cubic feet a day. And then, the WGL one, there are different tranches that some tranches phase out in the next -- well, the first tranche phases out or part of a tranche phases out when Cove Point comes into service by the end of the year and -- so then it's a phasing down over the next 5 years with the remaining tranche being Cove Point, which is a 20-year contract. So I think it's really anywhere from 3 months to 20 years. I know that's rather broad, but it's a phasing down and their ability to receive the gas also gets phased down or the -- their challenge in receiving it gets phased down over the next year.

嗯，South Jersey 是最簡單的一個，我想它會在 2019 年 4 月到期。所以那份合約——大概還有 16 個月到 18 個月。而且那份規模較小，每天 8,000 萬立方英尺。至於 WGL 那份，分成不同的 tranche（分段/批次）；有些 tranche 會在接下來——嗯，第一個 tranche 或其中一部分 tranche 會在 Cove Point 於年底前投運時到期——因此接下來 5 年會逐步下調，剩餘的 tranche 是 Cove Point，這是一份 20 年期合約。所以我想期限大概介於 3 個月到 20 年之間。我知道這範圍很大，但它是逐步下調；而他們接收天然氣的能力也會在未來一年逐步下調，或者——他們在接收上的挑戰會在未來一年逐步減輕。

The next question will come from James Sullivan of Alembic Global Advisors.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global Advisors 的 James Sullivan。

Just a quick question on Slide 4 regarding the average lateral lengths of the plan for the next 3 years. I think you show the length going down to 9,200 feet from 9,600 in '19 versus '18 and then back up to 10,220 and I'm sure that probably has something to do with DUCs in inventory, but can you just help me a little bit with that?

我有個關於第 4 張投影片的小問題，涉及未來 3 年計畫的平均水平段長度。我想你們顯示 '19 年相較 '18 年，長度從 9,600 英尺降到 9,200 英尺，然後又回升到 10,220；我確定這可能與庫存中的 DUC 有關，但你能否再幫我解釋一下？

Yes, and these are estimates at this point in time. We've always had a very active land program and what we find is by the time we get around to actually drilling these pads, that the laterals are usually longer than what we lay out in the plan, looking out a year or 2 or 3 years out. But part of the message here is just that we've done some of that just over the last year or so and so we have a longer lateral length average in our program over the next few years, which drives some of these efficiencies that we've been talking about. But even more important than that has really been just the drilling efficiency themselves and frac efficiencies and all that. But the longer laterals certainly will help in the capital program. And that's an ongoing thing and we're looking at all that again now and I think you'll see is come out with even longer laterals on average in this program over the next few years.

可以，而這些在目前時間點都還是估算。我們一直都有非常積極的土地（land）作業計畫；我們發現等到真正去鑽這些井場（pads）時，水平段通常會比我們在計畫中所列的更長——不論是往前看 1 年、2 年或 3 年。但這裡想傳達的一部分訊息是：我們在過去一年左右已經做了一些調整，因此未來幾年我們計畫中的平均水平段長度會更長，這也帶動了我們一直在談的部分效率提升。不過比這更重要的其實是鑽井效率本身、壓裂（frac）效率等等。但更長的水平段確實會對資本計畫有所幫助。而這是一個持續進行的工作，我們現在也在重新檢視；我想你會看到未來幾年這個計畫的平均水平段長度還會更長。

So conceptually, 2019, by the time we get there, that 9,200 will probably be longer. The effort is to drill longer and longer, but this shows what we have in place right now for the land inventory.

所以從概念上來說，到了 2019 年時，那個 9,200 可能會更長。我們的努力方向是越鑽越長，但這裡呈現的是就目前土地庫存（land inventory）而言我們現在所掌握的配置。

Okay, great. Yes, I mean, obviously 400 feet (inaudible) [probably doesn't make] a huge difference. I think I'm more thinking about the DUC inventory and you guys mentioned in your prepared remarks about rightsizing that as part of your refining your longer-term plan. What do you -- because I think there were some legacy wells that maybe were a lot shorter or were drilled a long time ago. Can you comment on that and just maybe how many DUCs you are running in the 2 basins right now and what you plan to do directionally with them in '18? Are you working them down? Or what's the plan?

好的，很好。是的，我的意思是，顯然 400 英尺（聽不清）[可能不會]造成很大的差異。我其實更在想 DUC 庫存；你們在事先準備的談話中提到，作為精煉長期計畫的一部分，你們會把它調整到合適規模（rightsizing）。你們怎麼看——因為我想有些歷史遺留的井可能短很多，或是很久以前鑽的。你能否評論一下：目前你們在這兩個盆地各有多少 DUC，並且在 '18 年方向上打算怎麼處理？你們是在把它們消化下降嗎？還是計畫是什麼？

Yes, and there are two categories of DUCs, of course. I mean, the DUCs that we'd referred to over the last couple of years were wells that were truly set aside, pads that were set aside for us to come back to later and part of that was just for controlling capital spending and not completing those wells at the time. So we have gone back on a number of those, and Mike will be talking about that a little bit in the AM presentation a little bit later. So we've already completed a lot of those so we don't have many DUCs set aside right now other than the 11 that I mentioned in the Utica. They're just waiting on Rover to come online. Now as far as just ongoing wells that are in the process of drilling, waiting on completion crews, drilling out, et cetera, we continue to have plenty of those as does everybody. That's kind of your working capital, if you will. But we are getting much more efficient with that in reducing our cycle times and not letting pads sort of laid fallow while you're waiting on a completion crew. So I wouldn't consider us a big DUC holder going forward. So what we'll be completing now over the next year are wells that we've drilled fairly recently and tend to be at the longer lateral ilk and they tend to be on larger pads where we can zipper frac them and be more efficient on the completions as well. So that's kind of the outlook.

是的，當然，DUC 大致分成兩類。我們過去幾年提到的 DUC，是那些真正被擱置的井——井場被先放著，之後再回來做；其中一部分原因只是為了控制資本支出，當時不去完井。所以我們已經回頭完成了其中不少，Mike 會在稍後上午的簡報中再談一些。因此我們已經完成了很多，目前除了我提到 Utica 的那 11 口之外，幾乎沒有太多被擱置的 DUC。它們只是等 Rover 上線。至於持續進行中的井——例如鑽到一半、等完井隊、鑽完等——我們仍然有不少，大家也都一樣。那有點像你的營運資金（working capital），如果你願意這麼說的話。但我們在降低週期時間方面變得更有效率，也不會在等完井隊時讓井場長時間閒置。所以展望未來，我不會把我們視為大量持有 DUC 的公司。因此未來一年我們要完成的，會是相對近期鑽的井，通常是較長水平段的類型，而且多在較大的井場上，能做拉鍊式壓裂（zipper frac），在完井上也更有效率。大致就是這樣的展望。

Okay, guys. That's very helpful, especially on the set aside "satisfied" DUCs. If I could just sneak one more in really quickly here. A little more philosophical here and I'm cognizant that you guys already sold down AM this quarter and what I'm thinking about here is you guys, thinking further out past end of the 5 years or a decade kind of time frame, as you move into a more mature phase in terms of midstream buildout, can you talk about the rationale for AR to have such a high degree of buy-ins so to speak into AM? And again, thinking here more philosophically strategically rather than are we going to sell 10 million shares here and there?

好的，各位。這非常有幫助，特別是關於那些預留、被視為「已滿足」的 DUC。如果我可以在這裡再很快塞進一個問題。這個問題比較偏哲學層面；我也注意到你們本季已經減持了 AM，而我在想的是，你們從更長期、超過 5 年甚至 10 年的時間框架來看，當你們在中游建設方面進入更成熟的階段時，能否談談 AR 為何要對 AM 維持這麼高程度的「買入／持有」部位（可以這麼說）的理由？同樣地，我這裡想問的是更偏哲學與策略層面的思考，而不是說我們是不是要在這裡那裡賣個 1,000 萬股。

Well it's been a great investment, first off, for AR. We got a page in the bigger presentation that shows that it's almost a 5x-er return for AR in terms of the investment of $1.3 billion back several years ago before the IPO of AM. So it's been a great investment. The outlook is terrific for AM over the next number of years. So we like holding that equity and taking the distributions back. So I would say we don't really have any concrete plans to reduce that holding of almost 100 million units of AM.

首先，這對 AR 來說一直是一筆很棒的投資。我們在較大型的簡報裡有一頁顯示，AR 在幾年前、AM IPO 之前投入的 13 億美元，至今的投資報酬幾乎接近 5 倍。所以這一直是一筆很好的投資。未來幾年 AM 的展望也非常好。因此我們喜歡持有這些股權並把配息／分配拿回來。所以我會說，我們目前並沒有任何具體計畫要降低這筆接近 1 億個 AM 單位的持股。

And the next question comes from Kevin MacCurdy of Heikkinen Energy Advisors.

下一個問題來自 Heikkinen Energy Advisors 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

Can you talk about your expectations for Mariner East 2 in-service date? And any effects that would have on your production or your pricing?

你能談談你們對 Mariner East 2 投產（in-service）日期的預期嗎？以及這對你們的產量或定價會有什麼影響？

Yes. I think, of course, one wants to look to Sunoco, SXL, for all the blow-by-blow detail. But I think industry followers know that they're putting a lot of it in the ground. Pennsylvania is an unusual state in that there can be more powerful local jurisdictions, I'd say, that can delay things rather than a statewide green light, so they do get hung up in county-by-county things that have to work those out. The original expectation would be November 1, now it's over the course of the winter and into the spring perhaps. And the impact of that, for us, we feel is pretty low that right now the product prices are high in the northeast and we would expect that just as last year the differentials are pretty narrow during the winter and spring and so we don't see much of a suffering of realizations with or without export for the next 6 or 9 months. So we're not saying -- we're certainly not on the inside on Mariner's schedule, but if it is a quarter or 2 late, that's okay with us, that our realizations and our ability to put our liquids away will be very little impact.

可以。我想，當然，若要逐項細節的最新進度，大家會去看 Sunoco、SXL 的資訊。但我想產業追蹤者都知道，他們已經把很多管線鋪設下去了。賓夕法尼亞州比較特殊，我會說地方管轄權可能更強，會造成延宕，而不只是州層級一聲令下就放行；因此他們確實會卡在逐郡（county-by-county）的事項上，需要一一解決。原先的預期是 11 月 1 日，現在看起來可能會延到整個冬季，甚至進入春季。而對我們而言，其影響我們認為相當低，因為目前美國東北部的產品價格很高；我們預期就像去年一樣，在冬季與春季期間價差（differentials）會相當窄，因此未來 6 到 9 個月，不論有沒有出口，我們都不太會看到實現價格（realizations）受到太大衝擊。所以我們不是在說——我們當然不是 Mariner 時程的內部人士——但如果晚一季或兩季，對我們來說也可以接受；我們的實現價格以及把液體產品銷出／去化的能力，受到的影響會非常小。

That's good to know. And as a follow-up regarding gas realizations, are you guys is still comfortable forecasting a premium to NYMEX for '18 and beyond?

了解，這點很好。另外追問一下關於天然氣實現價格，你們是否仍然有信心在 2018 年及之後，預測相對 NYMEX 會有溢價（premium）？

Yes, that hasn't changed. And the issue behind the current wide differential in the third quarter and what we expect in the fourth quarter it's really been a function of where Tetco M2 is traded and Dominion South relative to other indices. And I think people as a whole, that analyst investors expect those differentials to narrow quite a bit with all the new pipe coming on including Rover and eventually Mountaineer XPress and also we feel pretty good about that narrowing. It just won't be as big an issue going forward, so that kind of goes away. And then, given our overall portfolio, we expect to still be in that 0 to $0.10 premium to NYMEX going forward over the next several years.

是的，這點沒有改變。而目前第三季的價差擴大，以及我們對第四季的預期，主要是 Tetco M2 與 Dominion South 相對於其他指數的交易位置所造成的結果。我想整體而言，分析師與投資人都預期，隨著包括 Rover 以及最終 Mountaineer XPress 在內的新管線陸續投運，這些價差會明顯收斂；我們對這種收斂也相當有信心。未來這就不會是那麼大的問題，所以那種狀況會逐漸消失。再者，考量我們整體投資組合，我們預期未來幾年仍可維持相對 NYMEX 約 0 到 0.10 美元的溢價。

The next question comes from Jeoffrey Lambujon of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

下一個問題來自 Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. 的 Jeoffrey Lambujon。

Just a quick follow-up to the Mariner East 2 question. On the past, you guys have mentioned exploring alternatives for that. Is that something that you're still actively pursuing? And are there other options that stand out? Or has local pricing as you pointed out remove the need to look for those alternatives?

針對 Mariner East 2 的問題再快速追問一下。過去你們曾提到在探索替代方案。你們現在仍在積極推進這件事嗎？是否有其他特別突出的選項？或者如你所說，當地定價已經讓你們不需要再去尋找那些替代方案了？

Yes, we're pretty focused now on Mariner as really the best option for getting premium prices for export, for arbitrage and so we feel it's the most viable between local offtake in the northeast as well as Mariner, I think those are our preferred solutions. Others have been floated out there, as you're aware, with reversals and so on, but -- although we were supportive, we didn't see the producer community coming in on those and supporting them. So those are probably a little bit longer term. So I think for us, NGLs are going to be Mariner on the ethane side and we're looking forward to over to Shell cracker and more ability, more buyers out of Sarnia so we think we can stay regional in our NGLs. And between that and Mariner, too, that's where we're focused.

是的，我們目前相當聚焦在 Mariner，因為它確實是取得出口溢價、進行套利（arbitrage）的最佳選項；因此我們認為，在美國東北部的在地承購（local offtake）以及 Mariner 之間，這兩者是我們偏好的解決方案。如你所知，市場上也有人提出其他方案，例如反向輸送（reversals）等等；但——雖然我們支持——我們沒有看到生產商社群在那些方案上投入並提供支持。所以那些可能會是更長期的選項。因此對我們來說，NGL 方面會以 Mariner 作為乙烷端的主要路徑；同時我們也期待 Shell 裂解廠（cracker）投運後帶來更多能力、以及來自 Sarnia 的更多買家，因此我們認為我們的 NGL 可以維持以區域市場為主。而在這些與 Mariner 之間，這就是我們目前的重點。

And then my next one is just on how the gas takeaway portfolio and I guess growth into that plan to the long-term plan. So you obviously got excess capacity that you can keep going into. You could also continue to expand that capacity, just maybe looking at where the forward curve is today or you could look to maybe moderate either or both those options, reducing D&C further, potentially leading to more free cash flow generation than sooner. How do you, I guess, balance and prioritize all those options with what you know today?

接著我下一個問題是關於天然氣外運（takeaway）組合，以及我想是你們在長期計畫中如何成長到那個規模。所以你們顯然有一些可繼續使用的剩餘運能。你們也可以繼續擴充運能；但從今天的遠期曲線（forward curve）來看，你們也可能選擇放緩其中一個或兩個選項，進一步降低鑽完井（D&C），可能更早帶來更多自由現金流。以你們目前所知，你們如何在這些選項之間取得平衡並排定優先順序？

Well, with what we know today, of course, you're right that we do have some unutilized firm, but because of our growth rate we see that we're going to fill it fairly rapidly over the next 1.5 years or so. We like, other shippers, are going to be distress -- buying distressed third-party gas. So the reason that the Tetco M2 and Dominion South and other distressed indices will trade up is because those producers will be selling their volume and filling up some of the pipes. So our unutilized, there's a good opportunity fill with third-party gas. But it isn't that long over the next several years before we begin to fill our own FT. What will we do beyond that, as you're probably aware, there's been more of an advent of demand pull pipes, those being Atlantic Coast pipeline going to the southeast and Nexis going to the northwest that are putting straws into the constrained area and wanting to buy. So I think the question is with more of an abundance of pipe coming in, both demand pull and just spare capacity, whether we will need to sign on for more FT. So we definitely have time, we've got the next several years to judge that whether we're going to be signing on to more projects or whether the markets will be there for us to just be able to sell locally beyond what we have in FT right now.

嗯，以我們目前所知，當然你說得對，我們確實有一些尚未使用的固定運輸（firm）容量；但由於我們的成長率，我們認為在接下來大約 1.5 年內就會相當快把它填滿。我們和其他託運人一樣，會去承接——買入那些陷入困境（distressed）的第三方天然氣。所以 Tetco M2、Dominion South 以及其他受壓抑的指數之所以會走高，是因為那些生產商會出售其產量，並把部分管線容量填滿。因此，我們未使用的容量，有很好的機會用第三方天然氣來填補。但在未來幾年內，我們也不會拖太久就會開始把我們自己的 FT（firm transportation，固定運輸）填滿。至於之後我們會怎麼做，如你可能知道的，近來更常見的是「需求拉動型」管線的出現，例如通往東南部的 Atlantic Coast pipeline，以及通往西北方向的 Nexis，它們把「吸管」插進受限區域並希望採購天然氣。所以我想問題在於，隨著更多管線進來——不論是需求拉動型或是單純的剩餘運能——我們是否還需要再簽更多 FT。因此我們確實有時間；我們有接下來幾年的時間來判斷：我們是否要再簽更多專案，或是市場是否足以讓我們在超出目前 FT 覆蓋的部分，仍能在本地銷售。

And if I could just sneak one more in. Obviously a large amount of free cash flow coming towards the end of the decade and you all alluded to even more, which gives you increased flexibility and optionality around what you can do with that. If we're just trying to think about kind of a base level spending by the time you get out to 2020, is there a good number to keep in mind in terms of what could hold production profile relatively flat from there?

如果我可以再偷偷加問一個問題。顯然在本十年末期會有大量自由現金流進來，而你們也提到可能還會更多，這讓你們在如何運用這些資金上有更高的彈性與選擇性。如果我們只是想思考到 2020 年時大致的基礎支出水準，有沒有一個值得記住的數字，代表從那之後可以讓產量概況大致維持持平？

I don't have a real specific number there, but I think it's probably in that $700 million range or so, wouldn't you say, Mike?

我沒有一個非常明確的數字，但我想大概是在 7 億美元左右的區間吧，你說呢，Mike？

Yes, that's a good number.

是的，那是個不錯的數字。

Out to 2020 to hold production flat, yes.

到 2020 年要讓產量持平，是的。

And next, our question will come from Jeff Robertson of Barclays.

接下來的問題將由巴克萊（Barclays）的 Jeff Robertson 提出。

Paul or Glen, can you all just talk a little bit more about what underpins your NGL realization view over the next several years? And in the context of exports, are you all signing any agreements in light to deliver NGLs to buyers at a certain percentage of WTI?

Paul 或 Glen，你們能否再多談一點，未來幾年支撐你們對 NGL 實現價格（realization）看法的因素是什麼？另外在出口的脈絡下，你們是否正在簽署任何協議，以某個 WTI 百分比的方式向買方交付 NGL？

So I think what underpins that, I think, on the first question Jeff, it's outlook on oil prices, outlook on then C3+ demand, cracking demand. We can see, of course, LPG exports and how those our ramping up to the Atlantic Basin. So I think our general optimism is tied to those things that there is not only a general lifting with oil prices, but a specific lifting as we see more and more cracking customers across the world that need product, need the propane. So that's what underpins things, just a little bit of supply and demand there. As far as percent of WTI, those products are out there, as you know, both on the physical and the financial side. We haven't done that, and in fact, we haven't done much hedging yet. We've done little bit as we've seen the price rise, but we're being patient and so we may lock in, but we'll take advantage of this price rise and let it come to us. We still see pretty good momentum there. So most likely, instead of doing a percent of WTI, we'd probably just lock the price on swaps for our C3+.

Jeff，我想第一個問題的支撐因素主要是：對油價的展望，以及接著對 C3+ 需求、裂解需求的展望。當然，我們也看到 LPG 出口，以及這些出口如何逐步提升、擴大到大西洋盆地。所以我們整體的樂觀情緒與這些因素相關：不僅油價整體上行，同時隨著全球越來越多裂解客戶需要產品、需要丙烷，也會帶來更具體的提振。因此支撐因素就是供需面的些許變化。至於以 WTI 百分比計價的方式，如你所知，市場上確實有這類產品，無論是實體或金融端。我們還沒有這麼做，事實上我們目前也還沒有做太多避險。在看到價格上漲時我們做了一點點，但我們保持耐心，所以我們可能會鎖定，但我們會先利用這波漲勢，讓價格走勢自己來到我們這邊。我們仍然看到相當不錯的動能。因此最可能的做法是：與其做 WTI 百分比，我們大概會用交換（swaps）把 C3+ 的價格直接鎖定。

The second question, Paul. As you think about the new or the modified development plan with fewer -- with the 200 fewer wells needed, does that do anything in the context of gathering and processing efficiencies that allow you to realize any benefits at the AR -- from the AR cost structure from having a more -- maybe a more streamlined buildout from Antero Midstream because you just have fewer wells to connect?

第二個問題，Paul。當你思考新的或修正後的開發計畫、所需井數減少——少了 200 口井——在集輸與處理效率方面是否會帶來任何影響，使你們能在 AR——在 AR 的成本結構上——獲得一些效益？例如因為要連接的井更少，Antero Midstream 的建置可能更精簡？

Yes, you're absolutely right. Directionally, that's right, that longer laterals means fewer pads, which means fewer connections. And so whether it's taking gas away, low pressure, high pressure whether it's citing compressor stations and really with water delivery, too, that, that becomes more efficient with fewer pads and bigger volume per pad. So that's exactly right.

是的，你說得完全正確。方向上確實如此，更長的水平段意味著更少的井場（pads），也就意味著更少的連接點。因此不論是把天然氣輸送出去、低壓或高壓管線，或是壓縮站的選址，以及供水配送等，因為井場更少、每個井場的量更大，整體都會更有效率。所以你說得沒錯。

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Michael Kennedy for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Michael Kennedy，請他做任何結語。

Thank you, everyone, for participating in our conference call today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us. Thanks, again.

感謝各位今天參與我們的電話會議。如果你們還有任何進一步的問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯絡。再次感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議已結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。