Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Antero Resources fourth-quarter 2016 earnings call presentation.

各位好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2016 年第四季財報電話會議簡報。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Please note, this event is being recorded.

請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Kennedy, Vice President of Finance and Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給財務副總裁兼投資人關係主管 Michael Kennedy 先生。

Thank you for joining us for Antero's fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website, at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

感謝各位參加 Antero 2016 年第四季及全年投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，之後開放問答。我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中一併檢視。

Before we start our comments, I would like to first remind you that during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在開始發言之前，我想先提醒各位，本次電話會議中 Antero 管理團隊將提出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。實際結果與成果可能與此類陳述所表達、暗示或預測者存在重大差異。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO, and Glen Warren, President and CFO. I will now turn the call over to Paul.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Paul Rady，以及總裁兼財務長 Glen Warren。現在我把電話交給 Paul。

Thanks, Mike, and thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to first provide a recap of our consolidation efforts within the basin in 2016; secondly, review our overall development program throughout the year, including some of the key encouraging pad results; and then thirdly, discuss cost efficiencies that we achieved in 2016.

謝謝你，Mike，也感謝各位今天收聽。在我的發言中，我將先回顧我們 2016 年在盆地內的整併工作；其次，檢視我們全年整體開發計畫，包括一些令人鼓舞的關鍵井場（pad）成果；第三，討論我們在 2016 年達成的成本效率提升。

Glen will then highlight our third quarter and full-year financial results, including, first of all, price realization, secondly, capital efficiency gains, and thirdly, EBITDAX margins. He will then provide a brief discussion on a couple of the recent NGL infrastructure announcements and the impact those announcements will have on our business. Lastly, he will touch on our long-term targets and outlook moving forward.

接著 Glen 將重點說明我們第三季與全年財務結果，包括：第一，價格實現（price realization）；第二，資本效率提升；第三，EBITDAX 利潤率。之後他將簡要討論近期幾項 NGL 基礎設施公告，以及這些公告對我們業務的影響。最後，他會談到我們的長期目標與未來展望。

First, let's discuss Antero's 2016 acquisition activity and our efforts to consolidate the Appalachian basin. We are the most active operator in the basin. We have a strong balance sheet and the largest contiguous acreage position in the core of the Marcellus and the Utica. We are, therefore, extremely well positioned to be a leading consolidator in these two plays.

首先，讓我們談談 Antero 2016 年的併購活動，以及我們整併阿帕拉契亞盆地的努力。我們是該盆地最活躍的營運商。我們擁有強健的資產負債表，並在 Marcellus 與 Utica 核心區擁有最大且連續的土地持有部位。因此，我們具備極佳條件，成為這兩個區塊的主要整併者。

On slide number 2, entitled A Leading Consolidator in Appalachia, you can see the acreage we acquired in the Marcellus throughout 2016, highlighted in green, which is shown in and amongst our existing acreage in yellow. In total, we acquired approximately 74,000 net acres in the core of the Marcellus and the Utica shale plays in 2016, including 64,000 net acres in the Marcellus, which is highlighted on the map.

在第 2 張投影片〈A Leading Consolidator in Appalachia〉中，您可以看到我們在 2016 年於 Marcellus 收購的土地（以綠色標示），其分布於我們既有土地（以黃色標示）之中與周邊。總計而言，我們在 2016 年於 Marcellus 與 Utica 頁岩核心區收購約 74,000 淨英畝，其中包含 Marcellus 約 64,000 淨英畝，並已在地圖上標示。

In addition to our consolidation efforts, I would also like to take the opportunity to point out a number of notable pads where we implemented advanced completion techniques in 2016 and which are now delivering some strong EUR results. One of our recently completed pads that I'll highlight is a 10-well Marcellus pad located in our highly rich gas area in West Virginia.

除了整併工作之外，我也想藉此機會指出 2016 年我們在多個重要井場導入先進完井技術，且目前正帶來強勁的 EUR 成果。我將特別提到我們近期完工的一個井場：位於西維吉尼亞州高含液富氣區的一個 10 口井 Marcellus 井場。

This was significant, as it represents one of our largest producing pads ever placed to sales, with a combined 30-day rate of 200 million cubic feet equivalent per day and an average process EUR of 2.6 Bcf equivalent per thousand feet of lateral, assuming full ethane rejection. We estimate that the 10 wells on the pad will generate an average IRR of 100% and pay out in 1.7 years, assuming current strip pricing. You'll also notice that each of the highlighted pads on the slide were completed with 1,500 pounds to 1,700 pounds of proppant per foot and are supporting average wellhead EURs at or above the 2.0 Bcf per thousand foot of lateral type curve.

這點相當重要，因為它代表我們迄今投產（placed to sales）的最大產量井場之一，合計 30 天產量達每日 2 億立方英尺當量，且在假設完全乙烷拒收（full ethane rejection）的情況下，平均製程 EUR 為每千英尺水平段 2.6 Bcf 當量。我們估計該井場的 10 口井在目前遠期曲線（strip）價格假設下，平均 IRR 可達 100%，回收期為 1.7 年。您也會注意到，投影片上每個標示的井場皆以每英尺 1,500 磅至 1,700 磅的支撐劑（proppant）完成，並支撐平均井口 EUR 達到或高於每千英尺水平段 2.0 Bcf 的型態曲線（type curve）。

Given the location of this acquired leasehold, we feel very good about our ability to achieve similar results on the nearby acquired acreage, as well as on our existing surrounding acreage. Importantly, consolidation will enable us to continue to improve our drilling completion, capital efficiency, and drill longer laterals and more wells per pad.

鑑於這些收購租約地（leasehold）的位置，我們對於在附近收購土地以及周邊既有土地上取得類似成果的能力感到非常有信心。更重要的是，整併將使我們能持續改善鑽井與完井、提升資本效率，並鑽更長的水平段、在每個井場佈置更多口井。

Lastly, the vast majority of the acquired acreage is undedicated to third-party midstream service providers. This provides Antero Midstream with additional organic growth opportunities and the ability to optimize existing infrastructure.

最後，絕大多數收購土地並未專屬綁定（undedicated）於第三方中游服務供應商。這將為 Antero Midstream 帶來額外的內生成長機會，並提升優化既有基礎設施的能力。

Now on to the 2016 development program, we executed our 2016 development program ahead of plan and under budget, while growing our production 24% year-over-year, including 62% liquids production growth, as compared to 2015. We completed and placed online 120 wells during 2016, including 88 in the Marcellus and 40 in the Utica.

接著談 2016 年開發計畫：我們在進度超前且低於預算的情況下執行完成，同時相較 2015 年，產量年增 24%，其中液體產量成長 62%。2016 年我們完井並上線投產 120 口井，其中 Marcellus 88 口、Utica 40 口。

By completing our 2016 plan ahead of schedule and under budget, we were able to accelerate 18 wells into the fourth quarter of 2016 without a change to our 2016 drilling completion budget of $1.3 billion. This was primarily a function of the drilling efficiencies and cost reductions achieved in 2016.

由於我們提前且低於預算完成 2016 年計畫，在不調整 2016 年 13 億美元鑽井與完井預算的前提下，我們得以將 18 口井加速至 2016 年第四季完成。這主要歸因於 2016 年達成的鑽井效率提升與成本降低。

On the cost front, we continued to drive down drilling and completion costs through both our operational efficiencies and service cost reductions, as highlighted on slide number 3 entitled, Continuous Operating Improvement. By the fourth quarter of 2016, we had reduced Marcellus average drilling days from 24 days in 2015 to 12 days and increased our completion stages per day from 3.5 stages per day in 2015 to 4.0 stages.

在成本方面，我們透過營運效率提升與服務成本下降，持續降低鑽井與完井成本，如第 3 張投影片〈Continuous Operating Improvement〉所示。到 2016 年第四季，我們已將 Marcellus 平均鑽井天數由 2015 年的 24 天降至 12 天，並將每日完井段數由 2015 年的每日 3.5 段提升至每日 4.0 段。

Similarly, in the Ohio Utica, by the fourth quarter of 2016, we had reduced our average drilling days from 31 days in 2015 to 13 days and increased our completion stages per day by 62%, from 3.7 stages per day in 2015 to 6.0 stages per day. These operational improvements, combined with service cost reductions, resulted in a nearly 30% improvement in fourth quarter 2016 well costs relative to 2015 costs, both in the Marcellus and the Ohio Utica.

同樣地，在俄亥俄州 Utica，到 2016 年第四季，我們已將平均鑽井天數由 2015 年的 31 天降至 13 天，並將每日完井段數提升 62%，由 2015 年的每日 3.7 段提高至每日 6.0 段。這些營運改善加上服務成本下降，使得 2016 年第四季單井成本相較 2015 年在 Marcellus 與俄亥俄 Utica 皆改善近 30%。

In combination with the reduction in well costs, we also achieved significant productivity gains in 2015. To help provide more color, I'll turn your attention to slide number 4, called Improved Productivity Drives Lower F&D Costs. As illustrated on this slide, the key operational shift during 2016 was to increase proppant and water used per foot in each completion.

除了單井成本下降之外，我們也在 2015 年達成顯著的生產力提升。為了提供更多說明，請看第 4 張投影片〈Improved Productivity Drives Lower F&D Costs〉。如投影片所示，2016 年關鍵的營運轉變在於提高每英尺完井所使用的支撐劑與用水量。

In the Marcellus, we increased the proppant and water used per foot from approximately 1,200 pounds and 33 barrels in 2015 to 1,500 pounds in early to mid-2016, and then to 2,000 pounds and 46 barrels in the fourth quarter of 2016. The increase to 1,500 pounds per foot resulted in a nearly 26% increase in the average EUR per thousand foot of lateral in the Marcellus to 2.4 Bcf equivalent per thousand, assuming ethane rejection. When you combine the reduced well costs with this increased productivity, the result is a significant reduction in overall fourth quarter 2016 F&D costs to $0.41 per Mcfe in the Marcellus and $0.68 per Mcfe in the Utica.

在 Marcellus，我們將每英尺使用的支撐劑與用水量由 2015 年約 1,200 磅與 33 桶，提高至 2016 年初至年中 1,500 磅，並在 2016 年第四季提高至 2,000 磅與 46 桶。將每英尺提高至 1,500 磅，使 Marcellus 每千英尺水平段的平均 EUR 在假設乙烷拒收下提升近 26%，達到每千英尺 2.4 Bcf 當量。當把單井成本下降與生產力提升結合起來，結果是 2016 年第四季整體 F&D 成本大幅下降：Marcellus 為每 Mcfe 0.41 美元，Utica 為每 Mcfe 0.68 美元。

Looking ahead to 2017, we are reiterating our drilling and completion capital budget of $1.3 billion. We have in place long-term contracts for both completion crews and drilling rigs, and we are continuing to see efficiency gains. Therefore, we do not expect any meaningful increase to well costs in 2017.

展望 2017 年，我們重申鑽井與完井資本預算為 13 億美元。我們已就完井隊與鑽機簽訂長期合約，且仍持續看到效率提升。因此，我們預期 2017 年單井成本不會出現任何顯著上升。

On the completions front, we expect to continue testing higher proppant loads in 2017. As illustrated on slide 5, entitled Marcellus Completion Evolution for Our 2017 Development Plan, we expect to utilize 1,750 to 2,000 pounds per lateral foot for the majority of our program. And we'll also conduct a handful of pilots at 2,500 pounds per foot throughout the year.

在完井方面，我們預期 2017 年將持續測試更高的支撐劑投放量。如第 5 張投影片〈Marcellus Completion Evolution for Our 2017 Development Plan〉所示，我們預期在大部分計畫中採用每英尺水平段 1,750 至 2,000 磅；同時也會在全年進行少數試點（pilots），將每英尺提高至 2,500 磅。

I don't want to jump around too much and confuse you, but if you refer back to slide number 2, you can see that we are observing encouraging early results from the higher proppant loads in the 2.5 to 2.9 Bcfe per thousand foot range, assuming ethane rejection. Ethane recovery takes those EURs to the 3.2 Bcf to 3.7 Bcf equivalent per thousand range.

我不想跳來跳去讓各位混淆，但如果您回到第 2 張投影片，可以看到我們觀察到更高支撐劑投放量帶來令人鼓舞的早期成果：在假設乙烷拒收下，每千英尺約落在 2.5 至 2.9 Bcfe 的區間。若回收乙烷（ethane recovery），這些 EUR 將提升至每千英尺 3.2 Bcf 至 3.7 Bcf 當量的區間。

Before I turn it over to Glen, let me just quickly recap 2016 from an operational perspective. During 2016, through the strategic acreage acquisitions I touched on earlier, we increased our core drilling inventory to over 3,400 locations with an average lateral length of 8,100 feet. This is by far the largest core drilling inventory in the southwestern core of the Marcellus and Utica shale plays.

在我把時間交給Glen之前，先讓我從營運角度快速回顧一下2016年。2016年，透過我先前提到的策略性租地收購，我們將核心鑽井庫存提升至超過3,400個井位，平均水平段長度為8,100英尺。這是馬塞勒斯（Marcellus）與尤提卡（Utica）頁岩區塊西南核心區迄今規模最大的核心鑽井庫存。

We reduced well costs nearly 30% in both the Marcellus and Utica and improved overall recoveries in the Marcellus by 36%. The increased recoveries resulted in production growth of 24% during the year, which beat our original 2016 production guidance by 8%. With that, I'll now turn it over to Glen for his comments.

我們在Marcellus與Utica兩個區塊的單井成本均降低了近30%，並將Marcellus的整體採收率提升了36%。採收率提升帶動全年產量成長24%，較我們原先2016年的產量指引高出8%。接下來我把時間交給Glen發表他的看法。

Thanks, Paul. Let me begin with some of the key highlights from the quarter and the year. Protection averaged a record 1.99 Bcfe per day, or essentially 2 Bcfe a day for the quarter, a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, including nearly 87,000 barrels of liquids. Liquids production included 5,000 barrels a day of oil and just over 81,000 barrels a day of NGLs, representing a 7% increase from the prior quarter, as Antero remains the largest NGL producer in Appalachia. This production out performance continues to be driven by operational improvements particularly associated with the advanced completions that were implemented in 2016, which Paul touched on in his remarks.

謝謝你，Paul。我先從本季與全年幾項重點亮點談起。Protection平均產量創下每日1.99 Bcfe的新高，換言之本季基本上接近每日2 Bcfe，較上一季成長6%，其中包含近87,000桶的液體產量。液體產量包括每日5,000桶原油以及略高於每日81,000桶的NGL，較前一季增加7%；同時，Antero仍是阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）最大的NGL生產商。這樣的產量超預期表現，持續來自營運改善，特別是與2016年導入的先進完井技術相關的改善，Paul在他的發言中也提到過。

Moving on to realized pricing during the fourth quarter, we achieved outstanding results for both realized gas and liquids pricing. We realized a $0.07 premium to NYMEX Henry Hub, or $3.05 per Mcf before hedges on our gas production during the quarter, which was $0.52 higher than our next closest peer and $0.78 per Mcfe higher than the peer average. This further validates the strategic advantage of our extensive firm transportation portfolio, enabling us to move virtually all of our gas away from unfavorable local Appalachian indices.

接著談第四季的實現價格（realized pricing），我們在天然氣與液體的實現價格上都取得了非常出色的成果。本季我們天然氣實現價格較NYMEX Henry Hub溢價0.07美元，亦即在避險前（before hedges）每Mcf為3.05美元；這比我們最接近的同業高出0.52美元，也比同業平均每Mcfe高出0.78美元。這進一步驗證了我們龐大「固定運輸（firm transportation）」組合的策略優勢，使我們幾乎能將所有天然氣運離不利的阿帕拉契亞當地指數。

In fact, for full year 2016, we were able to achieve a $0.04 per Mcf premium to NYMEX Henry Hub, which was at the higher end of our guidance of neutral to $0.05 premium. We realized a natural gas hedge gain of $187 million during the fourth quarter, or $1.38 per Mcf of gas produced, and $957 million for the full year, or $1.89 per Mcf of gas produced during the year. Moving forward, we believe our firm transport and hedge book will continue to be competitive advantages for Antero, as uncertainty around both Northeast basis differentials and overall gas pricing is likely to continue.

事實上，2016年全年我們達成較NYMEX Henry Hub每Mcf溢價0.04美元，位於我們「持平至溢價0.05美元」指引的高端。第四季我們實現天然氣避險收益1.87億美元，或每Mcf產氣1.38美元；全年則為9.57億美元，或全年每Mcf產氣1.89美元。展望未來，我們相信固定運輸與避險部位（hedge book）將持續是Antero的競爭優勢，因為東北部基差差異（basis differentials）與整體天然氣價格的不確定性很可能仍會持續。

As a reminder, for 2017 and 2018, we are 100% hedged on our expected gas production at very high levels, $3.63 per Mcf for 2017 and $3.91 per Mcf for 2018. In fact, through the end of the decade, we are 85% hedged versus target gas production for Antero at $3.73 per MMBTU. That's an $0.82 per MMBTU premium to the current strip, almost a $1.00 premium to the current strip.

提醒一下，針對2017年與2018年，我們對預期天然氣產量已做到100%避險，且避險水準非常高：2017年每Mcf為3.63美元、2018年每Mcf為3.91美元。事實上，直到本十年末，我們相對於Antero目標天然氣產量仍有85%完成避險，價格為每MMBTU 3.73美元。這比目前期貨曲線（current strip）溢價0.82美元/每MMBTU，接近溢價1.00美元。

As it relates to liquids pricing, we realized an unhedged C3+ NGL price of $25.22 per barrel during the fourth quarter, or 51% of NYMEX WTI, and an ethane price of $0.22 per gallon, or $9.36 per barrel, in the Northeast. The C3+ NGL pricing of 51% of WTI during the quarter resulted in realized pricing equal to 43% of WTI for the full year, which was well above our 2016 guidance of 35% to 45% of WTI.

就液體定價而言，第四季我們未避險的C3+ NGL實現價格為每桶25.22美元，約為NYMEX WTI的51%；在東北部，乙烷價格為每加侖0.22美元，或每桶9.36美元。本季C3+ NGL定價達WTI的51%，使得全年實現價格相當於WTI的43%，明顯高於我們2016年WTI的35%至45%之指引。

The improvement in realized pricing was primarily driven by the strengthening of Mont Belvieu pricing relative to WTI, with local differentials slightly better than the prior year. This strengthening in Mont Belvieu pricing was primarily a result of increased demand for propane and butane, as propane exports rose to the 1 million barrels a day range.

實現價格的改善主要來自Mont Belvieu相對於WTI的價格走強，且當地價差較前一年略有改善。Mont Belvieu價格走強主要是因丙烷與丁烷需求增加，丙烷出口量上升至每日約100萬桶的區間。

During the quarter, we generated $476 million in consolidated EBITDAX, a company record. Detailed on slide number 6, titled Highest EBITDAX and Margins Among Peers, our EBITDAX increased by 55% year-over-year and was almost $100 million higher than our next closest peer. Our EBITDAX margin was $2.31 per Mcfe after adjusting for the non-controlling interest in Antero Midstream, or $0.47 per Mcfe higher than that of our next closest peer. This is a further testament to our integrated business strategy, which includes best quality rock, firm transport to favorable price indices, selling gas forward at fixed prices, and the highest exposure to liquids pricing upside in Appalachia.

本季我們合併EBITDAX達4.76億美元，創公司新高。如第6頁投影片「同業中最高的EBITDAX與利潤率」所示，我們EBITDAX年增55%，且比最接近的同業高出近1億美元。在扣除Antero Midstream的非控股權益（non-controlling interest）後，我們的EBITDAX利潤率為每Mcfe 2.31美元，較最接近的同業高出每Mcfe 0.47美元。這再次證明我們整合式商業策略的成效：包含最佳品質的岩層資源、以固定運輸連結至有利的價格指數、以固定價格遠期出售天然氣，以及在阿帕拉契亞對液體價格上行的最高曝險。

At the end of the day, the E&P business comes down to cash generation and real cash rates of return, and Antero's excelled in those areas quarter after quarter, as you can see. Continuing on the liquids topic, I wanted to provide a few thoughts as it relates to recent NGL infrastructure announcements, our liquids rich exposure and how that translates into increased cash flow as our liquids production growth continues.

歸根結底，E&P業務取決於現金創造能力與真實的現金報酬率，而Antero在這些方面一季又一季表現出色，正如各位所見。延續液體議題，我想就近期NGL基礎設施公告、我們對富液（liquids rich）的曝險，以及隨著液體產量持續成長如何轉化為更高現金流，提供幾點看法。

Starting on the NGL infrastructure and our control of the liquids rich resource base in Appalachia, I'll direct you to slide number 7. As outlined in the pie chart in the middle of the bottom part of this slide, based on our detailed technical analysis, Antero holds 41% of the undrilled core liquids rich locations in Appalachia. This provides us with a tremendous leverage and visibility when it comes to the NGL infrastructure buildout in the play.

先從NGL基礎設施以及我們在阿帕拉契亞對富液資源基礎的掌控談起，請看第7頁投影片。如本頁下方中間的圓餅圖所示，根據我們詳細的技術分析，Antero持有阿帕拉契亞尚未鑽探的核心富液井位中的41%。這使我們在該區塊NGL基礎設施擴建方面具備極大的槓桿與能見度。

You can see in the lower right on slide number 7 that our acreage position is well connected to significant NGL processing fractionation in key long haul transportation projects that move our product to market. Antero Midstream, which we own a 59% interest in, recently announced a joint venture with MarkWest related to the buildout of future processing and fractionation facilities. This was very important to Antero Resources, as it provides us with tremendous clarity and certainty around the next 11 Antero-dedicated processing plants, or 2.2 Bcf a day of processing capacity in the Marcellus.

在第7頁右下角可以看到，我們的租地位置與關鍵長途運輸專案中的重要NGL處理與分餾（fractionation）能力連結良好，可將產品輸送至市場。Antero Midstream（我們持有59%權益）近期宣布與MarkWest成立合資企業，用於未來處理與分餾設施的擴建。這對Antero Resources非常重要，因為它讓我們對接下來11座專供Antero的處理廠（Antero-dedicated processing plants）具備高度清晰度與確定性，亦即在Marcellus擁有每日2.2 Bcf的處理能力。

Given our long-term growth targets, it's essential that we are able to secure access to and some control over the timing of future processing and fractionation infrastructure. Continuing on this topic, Sunoco Logistics recently announced that it has received the permits needed to proceed with the construction of Mariner East II. Upon completion of ME II, expected in the third quarter of this year, Antero will be able to minimize expensive rail transport to Mont Belvieu and other domestic NGL markets and move our NGLs by pipeline to markets and on to export markets. Antero is an anchor shipper on ME II, with a 61,500 barrel a day commitment for propane, butane and ethane.

考量我們的長期成長目標，確保取得未來處理與分餾基礎設施的使用權，並在時程上具備一定程度的掌控，至關重要。延續此議題，Sunoco Logistics近期宣布已取得推進Mariner East II建設所需的許可。ME II完工後（預計在今年第三季），Antero將能把NGL以管線運往市場並進一步銜接出口市場，從而把運往Mont Belvieu及其他國內NGL市場的昂貴鐵路運輸降到最低。Antero是ME II的主力承運商（anchor shipper），對丙烷、丁烷與乙烷承諾每日61,500桶的運量。

Moving on to the pricing outlook for liquids, I'll point you to slide number 8, titled A Rising Liquids Price Environment. On this slide, you can see the expected improvement in Mont Belvieu NGL pricing, shaded in green, as well as our realized C3+ NGL pricing in 2015 and 2016, which is shaded in yellow. Importantly, we expect this trend to continue in 2017, and as a result, we've raised our guidance, which previously was 45% to 50% of WTI, to now 50% to 55% of WTI for 2017.

接著談液體價格展望，請看第8頁投影片「液體價格環境上升」。在這頁中，各位可以看到預期的Mont Belvieu NGL價格改善（以綠色陰影表示），以及我們2015年與2016年的C3+ NGL實現價格（以黃色陰影表示）。重要的是，我們預期此趨勢將在2017年延續，因此我們上調了指引：先前為WTI的45%至50%，現在提高至2017年WTI的50%至55%。

This increased C3+ NGL price realization guidance results in an incremental $65 million to $70 million of unhedged EBITDAX in 2017, based on our 2017 C3+ NGL production guidance of 65,000 barrels to 70,000 barrels per day. Once Mariner East II is placed in service, we expect further improvement in NGL netback pricing, resulting in C3+ NGL price realizations of 55% to 65% of WTI in 2018.

這項C3+ NGL實現價格指引的上調，將在2017年帶來額外約6,500萬至7,000萬美元的未避險EBITDAX，係以我們2017年C3+ NGL產量指引每日65,000桶至70,000桶為基礎。一旦Mariner East II投入營運，我們預期NGL淨回收（netback）價格將進一步改善，使2018年C3+ NGL實現價格達WTI的55%至65%。

It is important to note the increased 2017 guidance and 2018 target pricing included in this slide were simply based on current strip pricing and a blended C3+ NGL barrel for a $12.25 average BTU location. We have not assumed any incremental upside from an improvement in oil prices, further strengthening of Mont Belvieu NGL prices for local differentials.

需要注意的是，本投影片中提高的2017年指引與2018年目標定價，僅係基於目前的期貨曲線（strip pricing）以及以12.25美元平均BTU地點計算的混合C3+ NGL桶價。我們並未假設油價改善所帶來的任何額外上行空間，也未假設Mont Belvieu NGL價格進一步走強以改善當地價差。

In addition to a rising liquids price environment, our significant liquids rich inventory enables us to achieve tremendous growth in our liquids production. As shown on slide number 9, titled Rapidly Growing NGL Production, we have increased our NGL production by 93% on a compounded annual growth rate since 2014 and expect to grow to around 150,000 barrels per day by 2020.

除了液體價格環境上升之外，我們大量的富液庫存使我們能夠在液體產量上實現驚人的成長。如第9頁投影片「NGL產量快速成長」所示，自2014年以來，我們的NGL產量以年複合成長率計已增加93%，並預期到2020年成長至約每日150,000桶。

Moving on to slide number 10, when you combine the rising liquids price environment with this top-tier liquids production growth, you can really see the exposure Antero has to NGLs and the incremental impact of liquids pricing and production on our future EBITDAX. To help orient you to this page, I'll point you to the yellow line on the chart to the right. This line represents the expected incremental EBITDAX above 2016 levels, assuming $55.00 oil and realized C3+ NCL pricing of 52.5% of WTI.

接著看第10頁投影片，當你把液體價格環境上升與這種頂尖的液體產量成長結合起來，就能清楚看到Antero對NGL的曝險，以及液體定價與產量對我們未來EBITDAX的增量影響。為了協助你理解本頁，我請你看右側圖表中的黃色線條。該線代表在假設油價55.00美元且實現的C3+ NCL定價為WTI的52.5%之下，預期相較2016年水準的EBITDAX增量。

For example, the red circled number of $332 million represents the incremental unhedged EBITDAX attributable to liquids production that we would achieve in 2017 relative to 2016. The increase is driven by incremental NGL production above 2016 levels and expected improved NGL pricing above 2016 pricing. The green and blue lines represent incremental EBITDAX at additional pricing scenarios, assuming our targeted NGL production levels through 2020.

例如，紅色圈選的3.32億美元代表我們在2017年相較2016年可達成、可歸因於液體產量的未避險EBITDAX增量。此增幅來自於高於2016年水準的NGL增量產量，以及預期高於2016年定價的NGL價格改善。綠線與藍線則代表在其他定價情境下的EBITDAX增量，並假設我們至2020年的目標NGL產量水準。

So to summarize our NGL story, we are the largest NGL producer in Appalachia today and control over 40% of the undrilled core liquids rich locations. We are significantly interconnected to key NGL infrastructure through the recently announced joint venture between Antero Midstream and MarkWest and our commitment to Mariner East II. With a backdrop of rising liquids prices and continued growth in liquids production, we are very well positioned to capitalize on the strong fundamentals and substantially grow our cash flow over the next several years.

總結我們的NGL故事：我們目前是阿帕拉契亞地區最大的NGL生產商，並掌控超過40%的尚未鑽探之核心富液區位。我們透過近期宣布的Antero Midstream與MarkWest合資案，以及我們對Mariner East II的承諾，與關鍵NGL基礎設施高度互聯。在液體價格上升與液體產量持續成長的背景下，我們具備非常有利的定位，可把握強勁的基本面，並在未來數年大幅提升現金流。

Before I finish up, I wanted to briefly discuss our future outlook through the end of the decade. I'll direct you to slide number 11, titled 2017 Guidance and Long-term Outlook. We plan to grow production by 20% to 25% over 2016 guidance, to 2.2 Bcfe per day in 2017, while targeting annual production growth of 20% to 22% thereafter through 2020.

在結束之前，我想簡要談談我們到本十年末的未來展望。我請你看第11頁投影片「2017年指引與長期展望」。我們計畫在2016年指引基礎上將產量提高20%至25%，使2017年達到每日2.2 Bcfe，同時目標在其後至2020年維持每年20%至22%的產量成長。

Also, notice the red lines and numbers on the production bars that display the high volume and price level of our hedges, particularly through the 2017 to 2019 period. We expect to achieve this growth while maintaining a drilling completion budget within consolidated cash flow from operations through the year 2020.

另外，請注意產量長條圖上的紅線與數字，顯示我們避險部位的高數量與高價格水準，特別是在2017年至2019年期間。我們預期在達成此成長的同時，於2020年前將鑽井與完井（D&C）預算維持在合併營運現金流之內。

Slide number 12, entitled Significant Cash Flow Growth Drives Declining Leverage Profile, demonstrates that as our asset base further matures and our cash flow continues to grow, as you can see in the yellow bars here, we also expect our overall leverage to decline into the mid-2s by next year and beyond, and that's the green sweeping line that you see there.

第12頁投影片「顯著的現金流成長帶動槓桿水準下降」顯示，隨著我們的資產基礎進一步成熟且現金流持續成長（如你在此看到的黃色長條），我們也預期整體槓桿將在明年及之後下降至2倍中段（mid-2s），也就是你看到的那條向下延伸的綠色曲線。

Now finishing up, on slide number 13, entitled Capital Efficiency Driving Cash Flow Growth, this illustrates how after several years of outspending to build a production base in the business, D&C capital spending is now in line with cash flow. We believe that this marks an inflection point for Antero. The future is quite bright.

最後，在第13頁投影片「資本效率推動現金流成長」中，說明在過去數年為建立業務的產量基礎而支出超過現金流之後，現在D&C資本支出已與現金流一致。我們認為這標誌著Antero的轉折點。未來相當光明。

With that, I'll turn over the call back over to the operator. Thank you.

接下來，我把電話交回給主持人。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

The first question is from Neal Dingmann with SunTrust.

第一個問題來自SunTrust的Neal Dingmann。

Good morning, guys. Say, could I go right to and dig in on that 10-well pad, Marcellus pad you mentioned that had that exceptional 1.7 EUR cash on cash you mentioned on the longer laterals and the sand. I'm just wondering on that one, or in that area, location wise, is there still, if you could try and give me some color, is there a lot of acreage that fits that parameters on those 9,000 to 10,000, or 9,000- to 11,000-foot laterals in that same vicinity?

各位早安。我想直接切入你提到的那個10口井井場、Marcellus井場——你提到在較長水平段與加砂條件下，有非常出色的1.7倍EUR現金回收（cash on cash）。我想請問，就那個井場或那個區域而言，從位置角度來看，是否仍有大量符合那些參數的面積？也就是在同一附近，是否有很多9,000到10,000英尺，或9,000到11,000英尺水平段長度的區塊？能否提供一些說明。

Hi, Neal. Yes, absolutely. There's a lot of locations through there we're pretty solid yellow for many miles and it fits in terms of BTU yield and pressure. So should have many, many more locations like that.

嗨，Neal。是的，絕對有。那一帶有很多井位，我們在很多英里範圍內都呈現相當穩定的「黃色」區域，且在BTU產率與壓力方面都符合條件。所以應該還會有非常非常多類似的井位。

And then on those, you mentioned what that cash on cash, does that assume some inflation on there and is that the well that you have locked in about 70% of your costs in order to achieve that phenomenal cash on cash payout?

另外，關於你提到的那個現金回收（cash on cash），那是否已假設某些通膨？以及那是否就是你們為了達成那種驚人的現金回收期，而已鎖定約70%成本的那口井？

Yes, that cash on cash payout, that's specific to that pad. So those costs are already all spent, of course. But we do not have any acceleration built into our, in our service costs in the budget for this year. We can hit in that in greater detail, if you like. But we have 90% of our drilling rigs and completion crews under contract this year and about two-thirds in 2018. You can see that on slide 20 in our website presentation, for March.

是的，那個現金回收期是針對那個井場的特定結果。因此那些成本當然都已經支出了。不過，我們今年的預算中並未把任何服務成本的加速上升（acceleration）納入假設。如果你願意，我們可以更詳細說明。但我們今年有90%的鑽機與完井隊伍已簽約，2018年約有三分之二已簽約。你可以在我們網站上3月的簡報第20頁看到。

And within those completion contracts, people are concerned about sand costs and all, we have escalators built in there, but they're tied to things like PPI and CPI and labor indices and some of the sand contracts have an oil index escalator if oil prices go up. But other than that, we're not going to be subject to spot sand prices with those completion crews. It's pretty well tied down to various indices.

在這些完井合約中，大家會擔心砂成本等問題；我們確實設有調價條款（escalators），但它們與PPI、CPI、勞動指數等掛鉤，部分砂合約若油價上漲也會有與油價指數掛鉤的調價條款。除此之外，使用這些完井隊伍時，我們不會暴露於現貨砂價。基本上已相當程度地與各種指數綁定。

So for that reason, we've not built any escalation in service costs into our budget for this year. Plus, we're seeing lots of efficiencies continue in both the Marcellus and the Utica, as you can see. We don't think that's going to stop. And thirdly, the EURs are continuing to improve, as well. So we're pretty comfortable with that. We didn't chase the service cost down last year by lowering our budget. We use our contracted numbers and our AFEs.

因此，我們今年的預算並未納入任何服務成本上升的假設。此外，正如你所見，我們在Marcellus與Utica兩地仍持續看到許多效率提升。我們不認為這會停止。第三，EUR也持續改善。所以我們對此相當有信心。去年我們並沒有透過下修預算去追逐服務成本下降；我們使用的是合約數字與AFE（授權支出估算）。

And then last one, if I could, just on the NGLs, you are doing, obviously, a phenomenal job with the realizations there. What is the hedge market a year or two, three out? Is that market become much more fluid than it once was? Are you able to continue to lock in these great realizations, is what I'm asking?

最後一個問題，如果可以的話，關於NGL：你們在實現價格（realizations）方面顯然做得非常出色。那麼往後一到兩年、三年的避險市場如何？那個市場是否比以前更具流動性？我想問的是，你們是否能持續鎖定這些很好的實現價格？

Yes, the hedge market is there for at least two, maybe three years out. One can hedge ethane, propane, the butanes, if one wants to. Butane is a little less liquid. I will emphasize, in some of our presentations, we blend in the gas and the liquids hedges together. And then it comes out to 60% or so.

是的，避險市場至少可做到往後兩年，可能三年。若想的話，可以避險乙烷、丙烷、丁烷等產品；但丁烷的流動性稍差。我也要強調，在我們的一些簡報中，我們會把天然氣與液體的避險合併呈現，然後看起來大約是60%左右。

But in reality, the detail is that we're 100% hedged on gas and quite unhedged on all of our liquids. We are about 75% hedged this year on propane and then unhedged for calendar 2018 beyond. And the same with the other products. So yes, there are markets out there where we can hedge, and we will be adding hedges. But right now we see upside in liquids. We see it because of increasing demand, as well as improving infrastructure. So we will be hedging as we go through time. But we're quite well exposed to the upside that we're seeing in liquids.

但實際上，細節是：我們天然氣是100%避險，而所有液體基本上相當未避險。今年丙烷約避險75%，而2018年曆年及之後則未避險；其他產品也類似。所以，是的，市場上確實有可供避險的工具，我們也會增加避險。但目前我們看到液體的上行空間；原因包括需求增加以及基礎設施改善。因此我們會隨時間推進逐步進行避險。不過，我們目前對液體所看到的上行仍有相當好的曝險。

Very good. Paul, Glen, thanks. Great quarter.

很好。Paul、Glen，謝謝。這一季表現很棒。

Thank you, Neal.

謝謝你，Neal。

Our next question comes from David Deckelbaum with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自KeyBanc的David Deckelbaum。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks, Paul and Glen, for taking my questions.

各位早安。謝謝Paul和Glen回答我的問題。

Hi, David.

嗨，David。

I was just curious to ask, and can you guys give us some color on how you're thinking about ramping your volumes into Rover? And I see this split out that you have allocated right now in the Utica for dry locations versus rich gas, which seems to be more rich gas oriented right now, which I imagine is more IRR driven. Is there any thought around a little bit more aggressive activity in the drier gas window of the Utica in preparation for a Rover startup?

我只是想請教一下，你們能否提供一些說明，談談你們如何思考把產量逐步導入Rover？另外我看到你們目前在Utica的配置拆分為乾氣區位與富氣區位，而目前看起來更偏向富氣，這我想像應該更受IRR驅動。那麼，是否有考慮在Utica較乾氣的窗口採取更積極的作業活動，以因應Rover啟動前的準備？

Yes, we're definitely, of course, looking forward to the rover startup. The announced date is July. And so we're prepared to begin filling it as soon as it opens. We might risk that a little bit, or at least we're prepared if it opens later, but expect it to be there in July. We do have a pretty good split between Utica dry gas and Marcellus rich. At the current time, the Marcellus rich gas does have better economics than the Utica dry, but we're making great progress on that Utica dry, really getting well cost down there.

是的，我們當然非常期待 Rover 的啟用。公告的日期是 7 月。因此一旦它開放，我們就準備立即開始把它填滿。我們可能會在這方面稍微承擔一點風險，或者至少如果它晚一點開放我們也已做好準備，但預期它會在 7 月到位。我們在 Utica 乾氣與 Marcellus 富液氣之間有相當不錯的配置比例。目前 Marcellus 富液氣的經濟性確實優於 Utica 乾氣，但我們在 Utica 乾氣方面也取得很大進展，確實把那邊的單井成本大幅降下來。

We will be juggling back and forth our CapEx budget between each of the plays. But as we're rapidly building out our processing complex at Sherwood, but do have to time the capital spending on the Marcellus side, tie that all into liquids infrastructure, too. So there'll be some adjusting back-and-forth for Rover. But it needs to match all of our other FT and processing.

我們會在各個區塊之間來回調整我們的資本支出（CapEx）預算。由於我們正在 Sherwood 迅速擴建我們的處理綜合設施，但在 Marcellus 端也必須掌握資本支出的時點，並把這些與液體基礎設施一併銜接。因此針對 Rover 會有一些來回調整。但它必須與我們其他所有的 FT 與處理能力相匹配。

I appreciate that. Then my other question is, you highlight the excess cash that you anticipate generating. You're fairly highly hedged, obviously, out quite a number of years now. So it's fair to say it looks like the program is well covered. Should we be thinking about the uses of excess cash in your long-term program to continue consolidating the Appalachian area, or are you starting to look outside the basin, just given that you highlight that you have 40%, 50% of the undrilled locations in the liquids-rich core there?

了解。那我另一個問題是，你們提到預期會產生超額現金。你們顯然做了相當高比例的避險，而且一路延伸到未來好幾年。所以可以說這個計畫看起來有很好的保障。我們是否應該把你們長期計畫中的超額現金用途，理解為會持續整併阿帕拉契亞（Appalachian）地區，還是你們開始考慮走出盆地之外？畢竟你們也強調在富液核心區仍有 40%、50% 的未鑽探井位。

Yes, consolidation is certainly still on our minds and we'll continue to consolidate. And so that's one use of the cash. And if there's anything significant there, we'd think beyond just cash flow.

是的，整併當然仍在我們的考量之中，我們也會持續整併。因此這會是現金的一個用途。而如果那邊有任何重大的機會，我們會考慮的不僅僅是用現金流來處理。

The other note is, we're talking about consolidated cash flow from operations relative to D&C. And we're pretty well covered there, but we do have other spending, along the lines of Midstream spending, because we're giving you a consolidated number there. So I'm not completely at the point of throwing off free cash flow yet over the next few years. We'll be continuing to invest in the Midstream business.

另外一點是，我們談的是合併口徑的營運現金流相對於鑽完井（D&C）。在這方面我們覆蓋得相當不錯，但我們確實還有其他支出，例如中游（Midstream）支出，因為我們給你的是合併口徑的數字。所以在未來幾年，我還沒有完全到能夠產生自由現金流（free cash flow）的階段。我們會持續投資於中游業務。

All right. Thanks, guys.

好。謝謝各位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Holly Stewart with Scotia Howard Weil.

下一個問題來自 Scotia Howard Weil 的 Holly Stewart。

Good morning, gentlemen.

早安，各位先生。

Good morning.

早安。

Maybe thinking through slide 10 a little bit, with just the C3+ uplift, maybe taking it a step further, what are your thoughts right now on ethane extraction versus rejection, and then what are your constraints there, if any, I see the ethane guidance for 2017?

也許稍微從第 10 頁投影片來思考一下，關於 C3+ 的增益（uplift），再往前一步，你們目前對乙烷抽提（ethane extraction）相對於乙烷回注/不抽提（rejection）的看法是什麼？另外你們在這方面是否有任何限制？我看到你們有 2017 年的乙烷指引。

Well, we, of course, have, if you look at our 3P reserves, we've got well over 1 billion barrels of ethane. And so we have a lot. We will be supporting local markets. We've talked about that, crackers and such.

嗯，我們當然有——如果你看我們的 3P 儲量，我們有遠超過 10 億桶的乙烷。所以我們的量非常大。我們會支援本地市場；我們也談過這點，例如裂解廠（crackers）之類。

But right now we're recovering in the low- to mid-20,000 barrel a day range of ethane and then the rest we're rejecting, leaving in the stream, just because of the ethane economics. All in, so not sub costs, but for new costs, new tariffs and so on, we need to be in the mid-$0.30s in ethane, $0.35-plus a gallon, in order to pay to extract the ethane and ship it to Belvieu. And right now, the futures curve does begin to go out there. It's, in the near term, it's $0.28, $0.29 a gallon and gets out into the $0.34 range. So we're seeing some uplift there and getting close.

但目前我們回收的乙烷大約在每日 2 萬出頭到 2 萬中段桶的區間，其餘則選擇回注/不抽提，留在氣流裡，主要是因為乙烷的經濟性。以全成本來看——不是沉沒成本，而是新增成本、包含新的費率（tariffs）等等——我們需要乙烷價格在每加侖 0.30 多美元的中段、也就是 0.35 美元以上，才足以支付抽提乙烷並把它運到 Belvieu 的成本。而目前期貨曲線確實開始往那個方向走：短期大約是每加侖 0.28、0.29 美元，往外延伸到大約 0.34 美元。所以我們看到一些增益，已經接近了。

What we've been doing is, as I say, leaving it in the stream as we supply to crackers and to export. Those have a mix of gas-plus, plus an upside, a Belvieu upside. So we get pretty good prices that are little bit different than just a straight extraction tariff and sell at Belvieu. So we'll be extracting more.

我們一直在做的是，如我所說，把它留在氣流中，供應給裂解廠以及出口。這些合約是 gas-plus 的組合，外加上行空間，也就是 Belvieu 的上行。因此我們拿到的價格相當不錯，且與單純「抽提、付運輸費率、在 Belvieu 銷售」的模式有些不同。所以我們會抽提更多。

Our DF right now at Sherwood is for 40,000 barrels a day. MarkWest will build another one for us, another 20,000 barrel a day, at least, as we go forward, as we prepare for some of the markets, local markets, as well as the good news at Mariner East II is that we'll be exporting ethane to Borealis, as soon as that opens, for another 11,000 barrels a day, and we'll be open for business there on ethane for more international exports. And again, that pricing structure is such that it does pay to recover and we get a good floor, plus an upside as liquids rise.

我們目前在 Sherwood 的 DF 設計能力是每日 4 萬桶。MarkWest 會再為我們建一套，至少再增加每日 2 萬桶，隨著我們往前推進，為一些市場做準備，包括本地市場；另外好消息是 Mariner East II（ME II）一旦開通，我們就會向 Borealis 出口乙烷，增加每日 1.1 萬桶；屆時我們在乙烷方面就能開始營運，並拓展更多國際出口。而且同樣地，那個定價結構使得抽提是划算的：我們有不錯的保底（floor），再加上液體價格上漲時的上行空間。

Perfect. And then Paul, maybe a follow-up to that. It sounds like ME II is at least -- or ME II X is at least going to move forward, at this point. Any thoughts on a commitment to that project at this time?

很好。那 Paul，我想追問一下。聽起來 ME II 至少——或者 ME II X 至少——在這個時間點會繼續推進。你們目前對於承諾參與該專案有什麼想法嗎？

Well, we're of course pleased that ME II is going forward, and we believe that it will be in service by the fall. We're glad ME II X can go forward, as well, and that just opens up opportunities for us. We haven't thought yet about committing more to ME II X, but we certainly would with the right pricing and the right international markets developing.

嗯，我們當然很高興 ME II 正在推進，我們相信它會在秋季投入服務。我們也很高興 ME II X 也能推進，這會為我們打開更多機會。我們還沒有考慮要對 ME II X 做出更多承諾，但如果有合適的定價、以及合適的國際市場發展，我們當然會。

Okay. And then maybe just a quick modeling one, if I could. Any lumpiness to think about in terms of the quarterly production volume cadence?

好的。那再問一個快速的模型問題，如果可以的話：就季度產量的節奏而言，有沒有需要考慮的波動性（lumpiness）？

No, I think it should be fairly steady throughout the year, Holly. We expect to see continuing ramp up. I wouldn't say it would be particularly lumpy. I think it's a fairly steady completion schedule throughout the year. We're watching Rover closely.

沒有，我認為全年應該會相當平穩，Holly。我們預期會持續爬坡。我不會說會特別不均勻。我認為全年完井排程相當穩定。我們也在密切關注 Rover。

And I think once we see the spades in the ground, we may want to accelerate some of the ducts that we were going to carry in the Utica into next year. We were planning to finish this year with about 30 ducts, expecting Rover to potentially be end of 2018. So I think if that does come to fruition and they're actually laying pipe, then you may see some acceleration there of ducts bringing more completions into the third and fourth quarter in the Utica. But that's the only thing I can think of right now. It's pretty steady.

而且我認為一旦我們看到真正動工（spades in the ground），我們可能會想把原本打算在 Utica 留到明年的一些導管（ducts）加速。我們原本規劃今年年底完成大約 30 條導管，因為預期 Rover 可能要到 2018 年底。若這真的實現、他們確實在鋪管，那你可能會看到導管加速，讓 Utica 在第三、第四季帶來更多完井。但這是我目前唯一想到可能造成變化的因素；整體來說相當平穩。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you guys.

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝各位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question is from James Sullivan with Alembic Global.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 James Sullivan。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. If I could just ask you a little bit again, marketing, on your marketing guidance, once you see the ED is spades in the ground, so the Rover, do you have a plan for filling up that A&R segment that you're going to pick back up from them, and is that any anticipated increased marketing expense in the guidance there?

早安，各位。謝謝讓我提問。我想再問一點關於行銷（marketing）的問題：就你們的行銷指引而言，一旦你們看到 ED 已經真正動工（spades in the ground），也就是 Rover，你們是否有計畫把你們將從他們那邊接回來的 A&R 段填滿？而在你們的指引中，是否預期會有任何增加的行銷費用？

So as Rover and some of the expansions go into the Mishkan Chicago area, so that would be Rover and others that goes to Defiance, if there is a -- the A&R capacity is bidirectional, and so we'll be able to, if prices are better in the Gulf, then we'll be able to move our own gas, as well as any excess gas, any build up in the Mishkan Chicago markets to the Gulf. So that will be the early stage. And then as we fill up Rover ourselves, then expect to probably move that down A&R and capture any premium in the Gulf, and also just supply the LNG projects that we are producers for, such as Sabine Pass.

所以當 Rover 以及一些擴建進入 Mishkan Chicago 區域時——也就是 Rover 和其他通往 Defiance 的管線——如果出現某種情況：A&R 的運能是雙向的，因此如果墨西哥灣（Gulf）的價格更好，我們就能把我們自己的天然氣，以及任何多餘的天然氣、也就是 Mishkan Chicago 市場的任何累積量，運到墨西哥灣。那會是早期階段。接著當我們自己把 Rover 填滿之後，預期可能會把氣往 A&R 往南運，去捕捉墨西哥灣的任何溢價，同時也供應我們作為生產商所對應的 LNG 專案，例如 Sabine Pass。

Okay. So the idea would be that picking back up that FT from the Rover Team there, you'd be able to pick up any excess gas, just pick it up from the Midwest, rather than from Appalachia?

好的。所以概念是，你們從 Rover 團隊那邊接回那段 FT 之後，你們就能承接任何多餘的天然氣——也就是從中西部承接，而不是從阿帕拉契亞承接？

Yes, that's right, that A&R goes from REX's Zone 3 from Shelby, Indiana and also Defiance, it goes south to the Gulf. So that will be third party plus Antero gas. And yes, we will contractually, Energy Transfer turns that back over to us, as it becomes in-service to the Seneca complex in Ohio.

是的，沒錯。A&R 是從 REX 的 Zone 3（Shelby, Indiana）以及 Defiance 往南到墨西哥灣。因此那會包含第三方以及 Antero 的天然氣。是的，依合約約定，Energy Transfer 會在其投入服務、連到俄亥俄州的 Seneca 綜合設施時，把那段運能交還給我們。

And then lastly, could you -- just going back to the liquids for a second, could you comment on any particular market strength in the Northeast for propane and to what extent that impacted your, the obviously impressive C3+ realizations that you had in the quarter, and any sense you have about how durable that strength is going to be?

最後，能否——回到液體產品的話題一下，請你評論一下東北地區丙烷是否有任何特別的市場強勁之處，以及這在多大程度上影響了你們本季（顯然令人印象深刻的）C3+ 實現價格；另外，你們對這種強勢能維持多久有何看法？

No, I think the demand in the Northeast is fairly steady, the local demand. Rail rates have come down quite a bit, which has helped those differentials for railing products in the interim between now and the startup of ME II. But once ME II comes online, you have quite a takeaway option there. They're going to have 275,000 barrels a day of capacity on that pipe going to market and enabling export there. So we feel pretty good about that whole scenario. That's why we were bullish on raising the guidance for this year for our NGL pricing relative to WTI.

不，我認為東北地區的需求相當穩定，是本地需求。鐵路運費已經下降了不少，這有助於在現在到 ME II 投產之間這段期間，透過鐵路運輸產品的價差表現。不過一旦 ME II 上線，你們就有相當不錯的外運選項。他們那條管線將有每日 275,000 桶的輸送能力，把產品送往市場並支持出口。因此我們對整個情境感覺相當好。這也是為什麼我們看多、並上調了今年相對於 WTI 的 NGL 定價指引。

Okay. Great. And if I could just squeeze one more in here. Do you have any color or any updates on your assessment of the demand for the end-markets for exported LPGs out of markets? What are the conversations like from them in terms of looking for markets [lower] volumes?

好的。很好。如果我可以再塞一個問題：你們對出口 LPG 的終端市場需求評估，有沒有任何補充或更新？你們與他們的對話如何——就他們在尋找市場（[lower]）量的情況而言？

James, if I heard your question right, how is the outlook on LPG markets? It's strong. It's booming. And so we'll be able to -- we have capacity that we can use on Mariner.

James，如果我沒聽錯你的問題，是在問 LPG 市場的展望如何？很強，非常火熱。因此我們將能夠——我們在 Mariner 上有可用的產能可以使用。

It's penciled in as propane, but it is both propane and butane, technically, and it can be a mix and it can be made at the right combinations to serve the different LPG markets in the Atlantic basin. So that is really emerging as another demand source out of Marcus Hook. So we think it has a bright outlook.

它在規劃上是以丙烷為主，但技術上其實同時包含丙烷與丁烷，而且可以是混合物，也可以調配成適當的組合，以服務大西洋盆地不同的 LPG 市場。因此，這正逐漸成為 Marcus Hook 的另一個需求來源。我們認為其前景相當光明。

Great. Thank you guys. Appreciate it.

很好。謝謝各位。感謝。

Our next question is from Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Brian Singer。

Thank you. Good morning.

謝謝。早安。

Hi, Brian.

嗨，Brian。

My first question is a follow-up with regards to one of the earlier questions here. When we think about the productivity gains and the potential for cost inflation, the new pipelines and associate tariffs coming on, how do you think about your operating costs per Mcfe the over the next couple years, less so in 2017, but more, what's that trajectory, given the visibility of production in some of these tariffs?

我的第一個問題是針對先前其中一個問題的追問。當我們考量生產力提升與成本通膨的可能性、以及新管線與相關運輸費率（tariffs）陸續上線時，你們如何看待未來幾年每 Mcfe 的營運成本？2017 年倒還好，但更想問的是，在部分費率對產量可見度較高的情況下，這個走勢會如何？

Yes, you know, we've already got, in service, quite a bit of our FT portfolio. So we don't expect a large increase in the flow-through from FT to operating cost. But it goes up by a few pennies over the next few years. So not significant.

是的，你知道，我們的 FT 組合中已有相當一部分已投入服務。因此我們不預期 FT 轉嫁到營運成本的流入會大幅增加。但未來幾年會上升幾美分，所以影響不大。

Got it. Okay. Thanks. And then on the completion front, you continue to highlight the increases in proppant loading, can you talk more about your expectations for EURs for the 2,500 pounds per foot laterals, the relationship that you see between proppant load and EUR and where, if at all, do you see constraints proppant-loading wise?

了解。好的，謝謝。然後在完井方面，你們持續強調支撐劑（proppant）投放量的提升；能否多談談你們對每英尺 2,500 磅支撐劑的水平段之 EUR 的預期、你們看到的支撐劑投放量與 EUR 之間的關係，以及在支撐劑投放量方面你們是否看到任何限制？

Yes, that's a good question, Brian. And that is why we're running the pilots. We're not sure where the breakover point, the point of diminishing returns will be. We're very early in the 2,500 pound. The expectation, of course, would be that it's better than the 2,000 pound. But we don't know yet. So expect to have good results, but we shall see.

是的，這是個好問題，Brian。這也是我們在做試點（pilot）的原因。我們不確定轉折點——也就是邊際報酬遞減的點——會在哪裡。我們在 2,500 磅這個層級還非常早期。當然，預期會比 2,000 磅更好，但我們還不知道。所以預期會有不錯的結果，但還要再看。

And even, we'll have to see initial rates and then watch the curves over time. We're pretty conservative. And we'll be watching to see if it's worth the extra effort. We think it'll work. We think it will be good. And that's why we want to do it early, while we still have 3,000 to 4,000 more locations to drill, just to figure it out on the early end. But it is early.

而且我們還得看初期產率，然後隨時間觀察遞減曲線。我們相當保守，會觀察是否值得額外的投入。我們認為會奏效、會有好的表現。也因此我們想趁早做，因為我們還有 3,000 到 4,000 個井位要鑽，先在早期把它摸清楚。但目前確實還早。

Thanks. And you may have said this already, but what's the incremental cost for the 2,500 versus the 2,000?

謝謝。你可能已經提過，但 2,500 相對 2,000 的增量成本是多少？

Not much. Less than 10%, per stage.

不多。每一段（stage）不到 10%。

Got it. Thank you.

了解。謝謝。

Yes. Thanks, Brian.

是的。謝謝，Brian。

And our next question is a follow-up from David Deckelbaum with KeyBanc.

下一個問題是 KeyBanc 的 David Deckelbaum 的追問。

Hey, David.

嗨，David。

Thanks, guys. Sorry to hop back in here with one more, but I did want to just ask about how, at least in the press release, you discussed that a portion of your wells in the Utica are going to be on existing pads this year. I wanted to ask the, in pointing that out in the press release, is that more of an indication that your cycle times in Utica should be relatively compressed this year, or is this a new strategy to test reentering existing pads across Appalachia and leverage some of the costs that you've already sunk in there?

謝謝各位。抱歉再插回來問一個，但我確實想問：至少在新聞稿中，你們提到今年 Utica 有一部分井會在既有井場（pads）上進行。我想問，在新聞稿中特別指出這點，是更代表你們今年 Utica 的週期時間應該會相對壓縮？還是這是一個新策略，用來測試在整個阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）重新進入既有井場，並利用你們已經投入的部分成本？

Well, I think it -- well, maybe it signals both. But it especially just reflects the fact that these are big pads and typically when we get on a pad, we'll have four or five wells going in one direction in a pitchfork pattern. And we'll move off it just because of that cycle time, that it can take 180 days or more to drill and to complete. And so the sales delay is a little bit of an effect there.

嗯，我想——嗯，也許兩者都有。但更主要是反映這些是大型井場；通常我們上到一個井場時，會以叉狀（pitchfork）型態往同一個方向打四到五口井。之後我們會先離開，因為週期時間的關係：鑽井與完井可能要 180 天甚至更久。因此銷售延遲在這裡會有一些影響。

So we come in, we build the pad, we drill them all in one direction, frac them out, put them online and then come back at a later date, maybe a year later, and get on the same pad and drill in the other direction. And so it's just a way to reduce the cycle time. And so I do think it will reflect that we'll have shorter cycle times in the future when we go back to existing pads, that it's a much more quick in-and-out and the infrastructure is there.

所以我們進來、建井場、往同一方向把井都鑽完、壓裂完成、投產，然後在較晚的時間再回來——可能一年後——回到同一個井場，往另一個方向鑽。因此這只是縮短週期時間的一種方式。所以我確實認為，未來當我們回到既有井場時，週期時間會更短，因為進出會更快，而且基礎設施都已經在那裡。

We do have plenty of pads where we just drill the pitchfork in one direction and can come back and drill in the other direction. And so we've been saving these. And these definitely fit into our drilling schedule.

我們確實有很多井場是先往一個方向鑽叉狀井，之後可以回來再往另一個方向鑽。所以我們一直把這些保留下來，而這些也確實納入我們的鑽井排程。

And to follow up to that, David, when you're drilling $10 million to $15 million NPV wells, then that doesn't really move the needle a whole lot, it's really more about where you have infrastructure and what are the best locations to drill.

David，補充追問一下：當你在鑽的是 NPV 1,000 萬到 1,500 萬美元的井時，這其實不太會大幅影響整體，重點更在於你哪裡有基礎設施、以及哪些是最好的鑽井位置。

Got it. So this is more a coincident of the Utica program, which I guess will start showing up in the Marcellus program over time.

了解。所以這更像是 Utica 計畫的巧合，而我想這也會隨時間在 Marcellus 計畫中出現。

It's true. And one more add-on there to what Glen just said, our typical compressor stations might be 120 to 160 million a day, and you can see when you bring on big pads, you max out the compression just with the pitchfork in one direction. So part of the coming in and then moving off the pad halfway through it is to fit the infrastructure.

沒錯。再補充一點 Glen 剛才說的：我們典型的壓縮站可能是每天 1.2 億到 1.6 億立方英尺（mmcf/d），你可以看到當你讓大型井場上線時，光是往一個方向的叉狀井就會把壓縮能力用滿。所以，進來之後在井場做到一半就先移走，其中一個原因是為了配合既有基礎設施的容量。

Thanks for taking the follow-up, guys.

謝謝各位讓我追問。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Michael Kennedy for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Michael Kennedy，請他做任何結語。

Thank you for participating in today's conference call. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us. Thanks again.

感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。如有任何進一步問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。再次感謝。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。