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Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Antero Resources' third-quarter 2016 earnings conference call and webcast.
各位好,歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2016 年第三季財報電話會議與網路直播。
(Operator instructions)
(接線員指示)
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Kennedy, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.
現在我想把會議交給財務資深副總裁 Michael Kennedy 先生。請開始。
- SVP of Finance
- SVP of Finance
Thank you for joining us for Antero's third-quarter 2016 investor conference call. We will spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the home page of our website at www.AnteroResources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.
感謝各位參加 Antero 2016 年第三季投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點,之後開放問答。我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.AnteroResources.com,我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報,將在今天的會議中一併檢視。
Before we start our comments, I would like to first remind you that during this call, Antero Management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control.
在開始評論之前,我想先提醒各位,本次電話會議中 Antero 管理團隊將作出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷,並受多項風險與不確定性影響,其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。
Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecasted in such statements. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glenn Warren, President and CFO. I will now to the call over to Glen.
實際結果與成果可能與此類陳述所表達、暗示或預測者有重大差異。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Paul Rady,以及總裁兼財務長 Glenn Warren。現在我把電話交給 Glenn。
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Thank you, Mike. Thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments I'm going to highlight our third-quarter financial results, including price realizations and EBITDAX margins, discuss the current firm transportation outlook in Appalachia and touch on our balance sheet and free cash flow.
謝謝你,Mike。也謝謝各位今天收聽。在我的評論中,我將重點說明第三季財務結果,包括實現價格與 EBITDAX 利潤率,討論阿帕拉契亞地區目前的確定性運輸(firm transportation)展望,並簡要提及我們的資產負債表與自由現金流。
Paul will then provide commentary on the operational efficiencies and improvement in recoveries that we continue to achieve and give an update on our continued consolidation in the basin. Let's begin with some of the key highlights from the quarter. Production averaged a record 1.875 Bcfe per day for the quarter, including over 81,000 barrels a day of liquids, representing 6% quarter-over-quarter growth. This production out performance continues to be driven by operational improvements, particularly the advanced completions that were implemented early this year, which Paul will discuss further in his remarks in a moment,
接著 Paul 將就我們持續達成的營運效率與採收率改善提供評論,並更新我們在盆地內持續整併的進展。先從本季幾項關鍵重點開始。本季日均產量創新高,達 18.75 億立方英尺當量(Bcfe),其中液體超過 81,000 桶/日,季對季成長 6%。這項超預期的產量表現持續由營運改善所驅動,尤其是今年初導入的先進完井技術,Paul 稍後將在發言中進一步說明。
Moving on to realized pricing during the quarter, we realized $0.05 premium to the NYMEX Henry Hub on our gas production during the quarter despite Dominion South and TETCO-M2 differentials averaging $1.62 per MMBTU back of NYMEX Henry Hub. This is $0.77 per Mcf the higher than the next closest peer that has reported thus far and $1.53 above the blended TETCO Dom South index for the quarter, which truly highlights the value of our firm transport portfolio, an advantage we have over our peers, moving virtually all of our gas away from unfavorable local Appalachian indices. To further boil down our firm transport I will direct you to slide number 2 in the deck, titled Antero FIrm Transport Eliminates Northeast Basis Risk.
接著談本季的實現價格:儘管 Dominion South 與 TETCO-M2 相對 NYMEX Henry Hub 的價差平均為每 MMBTU 低 1.62 美元,我們的天然氣產量在本季仍實現較 NYMEX Henry Hub 溢價 0.05 美元。這比目前已公布的最接近同業高出每 Mcf 0.77 美元,且比本季混合的 TETCO 與 Dom South 指數高出 1.53 美元,充分凸顯我們確定性運輸組合的價值——這是我們相較同業的優勢,幾乎將所有天然氣移出不利的阿帕拉契亞在地指數。為了更進一步說明我們的確定性運輸,我請各位參考簡報第 2 頁,標題為「Antero 的確定性運輸消除東北部基差風險」。
Looking out through 2020, the year 2020, and utilizing our firm transportation portfolio to sell our gas into favorable markets, we expect to generate a premium to NYMEX of approximately $0.10 per Mcf. After taking into account the firm transport costs of $0.46 per Mcf to our gas away from unfavorable indices, which goes to operating expenses by the way, plus the costs associated with unutilized firm transport of $0.10 per Mcf, you can see our true netback price is expected to average NYMEX less $0.46.
展望至 2020 年,並運用我們的確定性運輸組合將天然氣銷往較有利的市場,我們預期可產生約每 Mcf 較 NYMEX 溢價 0.10 美元。若再考量每 Mcf 0.46 美元的確定性運輸成本(順帶一提,這會列入營運費用),以及與未使用之確定性運輸相關的每 Mcf 0.10 美元成本,則可看出我們真正的淨回收價格(netback)預期平均為 NYMEX 減 0.46 美元。
When you think about the alternative, if we were to sell our gas at local indices like Dominion South and TETCO, we would avoid the firm transport cost, however, we would average a netback based on September 30th strip pricing of NYMEX less $0.91, or $0.45 worse than what we expect to receive through utilizing our firm transport portfolio. I think it's also important to point out that the strip pricing I'm referring to indicates a relative tightening at local basis which has been priced in to give effect to the pipeline projects that are expected to come online. Given the current environment today as it relates to pipeline projects, I think many would agree there's significant risk that tightening of Dom South and TETCO basis may not occur at the levels applied by the current strip, which results in an even higher average index netback than $0.91.
若改從另一種角度思考:如果我們以 Dominion South 與 TETCO 等在地指數出售天然氣,雖可避免確定性運輸成本,但依 9 月 30 日遠期曲線(strip)定價計算,我們的淨回收將平均為 NYMEX 減 0.91 美元,較我們透過確定性運輸組合所預期取得的價格差 0.45 美元。我也認為重要的是,我所提到的遠期曲線定價反映了在地基差相對收斂的預期,並已將預計上線的管線專案效果納入。就目前管線專案的環境而言,我想許多人會同意,Dom South 與 TETCO 基差收斂未必會如現行遠期曲線所採用的幅度發生,這將導致指數淨回收的平均值甚至高於每 Mcf 0.91 美元的折價。
Moving onto liquids pricing, we realized an unhedged C3+ NGL price of $17.56 per barrel or 39% of NYMEX WTI, an ethane price of $0.19 per gallon, or $8 per barrel in the Northeast. The C3+ NGL pricing of 39% of WTI during the quarter was at the high end of our 35% to 40% range of WTI full-year guidance, primarily driven by an improvement on the Mont Bellvieu to WTI relationship, along with local differentials coming in as expected.
接著談液體定價:本季我們未避險的 C3+ NGL 價格為每桶 17.56 美元,約為 NYMEX WTI 的 39%;東北地區乙烷價格為每加侖 0.19 美元,約每桶 8 美元。本季 C3+ NGL 價格相當於 WTI 的 39%,位於我們全年指引(WTI 的 35% 至 40%)的高端,主要受 Mont Belvieu 與 WTI 關係改善所帶動,並且在地價差如預期收斂。
Continuing on the liquids topic, let me briefly touch on our liquids exposure as we see more upside in liquids pricing relative to gas pricing over the next few years. To help try and break it down, I'll refer you to slide number 3, titled Significant Liquids Pricing Exposure. As you can see in the chart, for every approximate $5 per barrel move in oil prices, assuming the Mont Bellvieu NGL price to WTI ratio remains consistent with the current strip relationship, our upstream EBITDAX would improve by roughly 6%.
延續液體主題,我簡要談談我們的液體曝險;在未來幾年,我們認為液體價格相較天然氣價格有更大的上行空間。為了協助拆解說明,請參考簡報第 3 頁,標題為「顯著的液體定價曝險」。如圖所示,假設 Mont Belvieu 的 NGL 價格相對 WTI 的比率維持與目前遠期曲線關係一致,油價每變動約每桶 5 美元,我們的上游 EBITDAX 約可改善 6%。
For example, at an average oil price of $70 a barrel through the end of the decade, our upstream EBITDAX would increase by 17% over the base case at strip, or roughly, a $1 billion to $1.5 billion. So any healthy leverage to oil prices for a Appalachian producer which provides us with nice diversity of cash flow from a commodity standpoint. I think it's also important to point out, as highlighted on slide 4, titled Largest Core Inventory In Appalachia, we are the largest holder of core acreage in Appalachia.
例如,若在本十年末之前油價平均為每桶 70 美元,我們的上游 EBITDAX 將較遠期曲線基準情境增加 17%,約增加 10 億至 15 億美元。對一家阿帕拉契亞生產商而言,這代表我們對油價具有良好的槓桿效應,從商品角度也為現金流帶來不錯的多元性。我也認為重要的是,如第 4 頁所示(標題為「阿帕拉契亞最大核心庫存」),我們是阿帕拉契亞核心土地的最大持有者。
Over 587,000 net acres core position is only 15% developed and includes 4,300 undeveloped horizontal drilling locations. With 435,000 net acres we are also the largest holder of core liquids-rich acreage by factor of over two times our next closest peer. The key part of our strategy throughout this downturn has been to position ourselves for an NGL price recovery and we believe we are best positioned to capture this upside.
我們超過 587,000 英畝的核心淨面積僅開發 15%,並包含 4,300 個未開發的水平井鑽探位置。以 435,000 英畝的核心富液淨面積計算,我們也是核心富液土地的最大持有者,規模超過第二名同業兩倍以上。在本次景氣下行期間,我們策略的關鍵之一就是為 NGL 價格復甦做好布局,我們相信自己最有能力掌握這波上行。
And as you can see on slide number 5, titled Improving Marcellus Well Economics, roughly 1,900 of our un-drilled locations are located in the 1,200 to 1325 BTU band in the Marcellus and are delivering half-cycle rates in the 50% to 78% range using current strip pricing before hedging. Moving to cash expenses, I wanted to touch briefly on net marketing expense, which decreased to $18 million or $0.10 per Mcfe during the quarter. The was a reduction was a function of releasing capacity on our ANR South segment to a third-party as well as increased spreads on marketed gas due to the widening of local indices.
如第 5 頁所示(標題為「Marcellus 井經濟性改善」),我們約有 1,900 個尚未鑽探的位置位於 Marcellus 的 1,200 至 1,325 BTU 區間,並在目前遠期曲線定價、未計入避險前,提供 50% 至 78% 的半循環報酬率。接著談現金費用,我想簡要提及淨行銷費用,本季降至 1,800 萬美元或每 Mcfe 0.10 美元。此項下降主要來自我們將 ANR South 區段的部分運能釋出給第三方,以及因在地指數擴大而使行銷天然氣的價差增加。
During the quarter, we generated $373 million in consolidated EBITDAX, a company record. Details on slide number 6, titled Highest EBITDAX and Margins Among Peers. Our EBITDAX increased by 28% year over year and has far exceeded that of our peers for the last several quarters, as you can see. This chart is a bottom-line testament to our integrated business strategy which includes best rock, firm transport to favorable price indices, and forward sales of a significant portion of our gas at fixed prices. We like our position.
本季我們合併 EBITDAX 為 3.73 億美元,創公司新高。詳見第 6 頁,標題為「同業中最高的 EBITDAX 與利潤率」。我們的 EBITDAX 年增 28%,且如各位所見,過去數季皆大幅領先同業。這張圖在最終獲利層面印證了我們的整合式商業策略,包括最佳地質資源、透過確定性運輸銷往有利的價格指數,以及以固定價格進行相當比例天然氣的遠期銷售。我們對自身的布局感到滿意。
Moving on to the balance sheet and liquidity, I will refer you to slide number 7 now, titled Strong balance sheet and Liquidity. We announced yesterday that we have signed a definitive agreement to sell approximately 17,000 net acres, primarily located in Washington and West Moreland Counties, Pennsylvania, for $170 million. This was acreage outside of our five-year development plan and in an area that does not have Antero midstream gathering infrastructure in place today. We thought it was very prudent to bring that PV forward, particularly as we continue to consolidate acreage in West Virginia and Ohio for near-term development.
接著談到資產負債表與流動性,我現在請各位翻到第 7 頁投影片,標題為「強健的資產負債表與流動性」。我們昨日宣布,已簽署具約束力的最終協議,以 1.70 億美元出售約 17,000 淨英畝(net acres)的資產,主要位於賓夕法尼亞州的華盛頓郡(Washington County)與西摩蘭郡(Westmoreland County)。這些英畝不在我們五年開發計畫之內,且位於目前尚未建置 Antero Midstream 集輸(gathering)基礎設施的區域。我們認為提前實現該 PV(現值)非常審慎,尤其是在我們持續於西維吉尼亞州與俄亥俄州整併英畝、以利近期開發之際。
In addition to this divestiture, we also raised $175 million in early October through a private placement of 6.7 million shares to Temasek Holdings, a well-respected, sovereign wealth fund in Singapore. Furthermore, as part of the fall borrowing base redetermination, our borrowing base was increased by $250 million to $4.75 billion and that was without any increase in the commitments. So that remains at $4 billion.
除這項資產處分外,我們也在 10 月上旬透過私募方式向新加坡備受尊敬的主權財富基金淡馬錫控股(Temasek Holdings)發行 670 萬股,募集 1.75 億美元。此外,作為秋季借款基礎(borrowing base)重新評估的一部分,我們的借款基礎增加 2.50 億美元至 47.5 億美元,而承諾額度(commitments)並未增加,因此承諾額度仍維持在 40 億美元。
The increase is a direct result of our growing core liquids-rich PUD drilling inventory and the significant PDP reserve growth. Year-to-date, we have added a total of 99 PDP wells. Pro forma for the $345 million in proceeds from the aforementioned transactions, our September 30th consolidated net debt to the latest 12 month EBITDAX was 3.2 times.
這項增加直接反映我們核心富液 PUD(已證未開發)鑽井庫存的成長,以及 PDP(已證已開發生產)儲量的顯著增加。今年迄今,我們合計新增 99 口 PDP 井。以先前提及交易的 3.45 億美元所得款項作為備考(pro forma)基礎,截至 9 月 30 日,我們合併淨負債對最近 12 個月 EBITDAX 的比率為 3.2 倍。
We have strong visibility that leverage will continue to trend down as we forecast increasing EBITDAX in 2017 and 2018, supported by our production growth of 20% to 25% per year. Hedges in place that cover all of our natural gas production in 2017 at $3.63 per MMBTU, and at $3.91 in 2018 and similar capital spending in those years to our 2016 spend. With that, I will turn over to Paul for his comments.
我們對槓桿比率將持續下行具有高度能見度,因我們預期 2017 與 2018 年 EBITDAX 將增加,並由每年 20% 至 25% 的產量成長所支撐。我們已建立避險部位,涵蓋 2017 年全部天然氣產量,價格為每 MMBTU 3.63 美元;2018 年為 3.91 美元;且兩年資本支出水準與 2016 年相近。接下來我把時間交給 Paul 發表他的評論。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Thanks, Glen. In my comments today I will provide an update on our operational efficiencies, highlight the improve recoveries that we are achieving through the advanced completion techniques that we implemented earlier this year and touch on our continued efforts to consolidate the basin. Now, let me first discuss the operational efficiencies and cost reductions we continue to achieve today.
謝謝,Glen。今天我的評論將更新我們的營運效率,重點說明我們透過今年稍早導入的先進完井技術所達成的採收率提升,並簡要談及我們持續整併盆地的努力。首先,我先談談我們目前持續達成的營運效率與成本降低。
As you can see, on slide number 8, entitled, Proven Track Record of Well Cost Reductions, AR are has reduced its well cost by 36% in the Marcellus since 2014 to $0.86 million per thousand feet of lateral. The continued reduction in well cost is a result of both operational efficiencies through faster drilling and completions combined with long-term service contracts rolling off and being replaced with current market-priced services, despite the rising commodity price environment.
如各位在第 8 頁投影片(標題為「井成本降低的經驗證明」)所見,自 2014 年以來,AR 在 Marcellus 的單井成本已降低 36%,降至每千英尺水平段(lateral)0.86 百萬美元。井成本持續下降,來自於更快的鑽井與完井所帶來的營運效率提升,以及長期服務合約到期後改以目前市場價格的服務取代,儘管商品價格環境正在走升。
The bottom half of the slide illustrates that we've seen similar success in the Utica, with well costs totaling $1 million per thousand feet of lateral, representing a 35% decline since 2014. Additionally, current Marcellus and Utica well costs represent an 18% and 15% reduction, respectively, compared to well costs assumed in AR's year-end 2015 reserves. At this point, we have not seen any upward pressure on service costs.
投影片下半部顯示,我們在 Utica 也取得類似成果,單井成本合計為每千英尺水平段 1.00 百萬美元,較 2014 年下降 35%。此外,目前 Marcellus 與 Utica 的單井成本,分別較 AR 於 2015 年底儲量評估所假設的井成本低 18% 與 15%。截至目前,我們尚未看到服務成本有任何上行壓力。
In fact, on the drilling side, we have entered into long-term contracts at current market rates for several rigs through 2019. And on the completion side we have contracted for approximately 5,000 completion stages per year through 2018. Shifting gears to wellhead recoveries, we continue to achieve encouraging results utilizing advanced completion techniques we implemented earlier this year. To provide further clarity, I will direct you to slide number 9, entitled, Optimizing Well Recoveries From Advanced Completions.
事實上,在鑽井端,我們已以目前市場費率簽訂多座鑽機的長期合約,合約期延伸至 2019 年;在完井端,我們已簽約至 2018 年,每年約 5,000 個完井段(completion stages)。接著轉到井口採收率(wellhead recoveries),我們持續透過今年稍早導入的先進完井技術取得令人鼓舞的成果。為了更清楚說明,我請各位翻到第 9 頁投影片,標題為「以先進完井最佳化井採收率」。
As you can see, in the table at the top of the page, we've laid out the pertinent completion metrics and how the associated components have changed in the Marcellus since 2013. As outlined in the furthest column to the right, we have increased the profit used per foot of lateral by 64% and the water used per foot of lateral by 54% since 2013. The increased sand and water concentration has resulted in a 33% overall improvement in recoveries based on the results of our enhanced completions to date.
如各位所見,在頁面上方的表格中,我們列出了關鍵完井指標,以及自 2013 年以來 Marcellus 相關組成要素的變化。如最右欄所示,自 2013 年以來,我們每英尺水平段使用的支撐劑(proppant)增加 64%,每英尺水平段用水量增加 54%。砂與水的濃度提高,使得截至目前的強化完井結果顯示,整體採收率提升 33%。
In the chart on this page, we've outlined three different cumulative production curves for the first two year period of a well's life. The green legacy curve represents the production curve from wells competed in 2013 when we were using only 900 pounds of proppant per foot and had not transitioned to shorter stage lengths, or SSLs.
在本頁的圖表中,我們列示了井生命週期前兩年的三條不同累積產量曲線。綠色的既有(legacy)曲線代表 2013 年完井的井之產量曲線,當時我們每英尺僅使用 900 磅支撐劑,且尚未轉換為較短段長(shorter stage lengths,SSLs)。
The orange curve represents the type curve assumed for all of our Marcellus reserves today. This is supported by over 200 Marcellus wells placed online since we migrated to SSLs in late 2013. And finally, the yellow 2.0 Bcfe per thousand line represents the cumulative production curve we are currently estimating.
橘色曲線代表我們目前對所有 Marcellus 儲量所採用的型態曲線(type curve)。此曲線由 2013 年底我們轉向 SSLs 之後,上線投產的 200 多口 Marcellus 井所支撐。最後,黃色的「每千英尺 2.0 Bcfe」線代表我們目前正在估算的累積產量曲線。
Based on results from the advanced completion wells outlined under the 2016 column in the table at the top. To date, we've completed 33 wells using advanced completion techniques, which we generally define as using more than 1,300 pounds per foot of lateral. The aggregated production from these wells is tracking the 2.0 Bcfe per thousand type curve.
此估算係基於上方表格中 2016 欄位所列的先進完井井結果。截至目前,我們已完成 33 口採用先進完井技術的井;我們一般將其定義為每英尺水平段使用超過 1,300 磅支撐劑。這些井的彙總產量正沿著每千英尺 2.0 Bcfe 的型態曲線推進。
This improvement in recoveries has really been a key driver behind the overall production and out performance we're seeing on a Company-wide basis this year. On a year-to-date basis, looking back at the Marcellus we have completed 69 wells and turned them to sales and they all have at least 90 days of production history. The 69 wells have an average EUR of 20.6 Bcf-equivalent at 1245 BTU gas and assuming ethane rejection, an average lateral length of 9,000 feet and an average all-in development costs of $0.53 per Mcfe.
採收率的提升,確實是今年我們在全公司層面所見整體產量與超預期表現的關鍵驅動因素之一。以今年迄今為基礎回看 Marcellus,我們已完成 69 口井並轉入銷售,且每口井至少有 90 天的生產歷史。這 69 口井的平均 EUR 為 20.6 Bcfe(以 1245 BTU 氣體計),並假設乙烷拒收(ethane rejection);平均水平段長度為 9,000 英尺,平均全包式開發成本為每 Mcfe 0.53 美元。
Note, that the 20.6 Bcfe average EUR processed is actually 26 Bcfe per well in full ethane recovery. Also keep in mind, the development costs associated with these completions partially reflects legacy drilling and completion contract rates. As these legacy contracts continue to roll off and the operational efficiencies continue, we expect to further decline in development costs.
請注意,所處理的 20.6 Bcfe 平均 EUR,若在乙烷全回收(full ethane recovery)情境下,實際上相當於每口井 26 Bcfe。也請記住,這些完井的開發成本部分反映了既有的鑽井與完井合約費率。隨著這些既有合約持續到期,以及營運效率持續提升,我們預期開發成本將進一步下降。
Antero has been a leader in long lateral since the inception of the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. The economic benefit of drilling these long laterals is illustrated on slide 10, entitled, Longer Laterals Improve Well Economics. Notice, the increase in economics from a 63% rate of return to a 78% rate of return when we go from the average peer company lateral of 6,500 feet to Antero's average of 9,000 feet.
自 Marcellus 與 Utica 頁岩開發之初,Antero 一直是長水平段(long lateral)的領導者。鑽探這些長水平段的經濟效益,於第 10 頁投影片(標題為「更長水平段改善井經濟性」)中有所呈現。請注意,當我們從同業平均 6,500 英尺的水平段長度提升至 Antero 平均 9,000 英尺時,報酬率由 63% 提升至 78%。
Now, when you combine the reduction in well costs with long laterals and these optimized recoveries you really start to see a meaningful impact to the overall business creating significant value for shareholders. To try and summarize this point, I would like to refer you to slide 11, entitled, Capital Efficiency Driving Value To Shareholders. On the left-hand side of the page, we show the original 2016 production guidance that we issued back in February compared to the current 2016 production guidance, and the original 2017 production target compared to the current 2017 production target.
當你把井成本降低、長水平段,以及這些最佳化的採收率結合起來,就會開始看到對整體業務的顯著影響,為股東創造可觀價值。為了總結這一點,我想請各位參考第 11 頁投影片,標題為「資本效率驅動股東價值」。在頁面左側,我們展示了 2 月發布的原始 2016 年產量指引與目前 2016 年產量指引的比較,以及原始 2017 年產量目標與目前 2017 年產量目標的比較。
The right-hand side of the page, we show drilling and completion capital for the same time periods. The key takeaway from this page, is that we are now expecting to grow 2017 production approximately 150 million cubic feet equivalent a day higher than originally targeted while spending $225 million less capital to achieve this growth.
在頁面右側,我們展示相同期間的鑽井與完井資本支出。本頁的關鍵重點是:我們目前預期 2017 年產量將較原先目標高出約每日 1.5 億立方英尺當量(million cubic feet equivalent a day),同時為達成此成長所需資本支出反而少 2.25 億美元。
This results in more free cash flow available to spend in 2017 to drive 2018 production and cash flow. Let me finish up by discussing the continued consolidation we've achieved throughout the years and really since we've entered Appalachia in 2008. As you can see on slide number 12, entitled, Leading Consolidator In Appalachia, we've continuously consolidated core acreage in Appalachia since we entered the play in late 2008.
這使得 2017 年有更多自由現金流可用於投入,以推動 2018 年的產量與現金流。最後,我想談談我們多年來、尤其自 2008 年進入阿帕拉契亞(Appalachia)以來所達成的持續整併。如各位在第 12 頁投影片(標題為「阿帕拉契亞的領先整併者」)所見,自 2008 年底進入該區域以來,我們持續整併阿帕拉契亞的核心英畝。
Since the end of 2014 alone, we've added over 85,000 net acres. We now have 629,000 net acres, including 587,000 acres within the core area and 85% of that is un-drilled acreage. This provides us with tremendous running room to develop high rate of return locations for many years ahead. We will continue to analyze opportunities for consolidation in the basin and believe that we are well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities.
僅自 2014 年底以來,我們已新增超過 85,000 淨英畝。我們目前擁有 629,000 淨英畝,其中 587,000 英畝位於核心區域,而其中 85% 為尚未鑽探的英畝。這為我們提供了極大的開發空間,使我們在未來多年能夠開發高報酬率的井位。我們將持續分析盆地內整併的機會,並相信我們已具備良好條件把握這些機會。
In summary, we've made great strides operationally in 2016. Driving tremendous value for our shareholders. Our consolidation efforts have proved successful thus far and we see a number of exciting opportunities that lie ahead. Our business plan remains focused on driving down development cost, optimizing recoveries, achieving best in class realized pricing and pure leading margins and these will ultimately lead to value creation for our shareholders.
總結而言,我們在 2016 年的營運面取得了長足進展,為股東創造了可觀價值。我們的整併努力迄今已證明是成功的,且我們看到前方仍有許多令人振奮的機會。我們的營運計畫仍聚焦於降低開發成本、最佳化採收率、達成同業最佳的實現價格與同業領先的利潤率,這些最終都將為股東創造價值。
Looking ahead, we believe that we are uniquely positioned for long-term success. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions.
展望未來,我們相信我們在長期成功方面具備獨特優勢。那麼,接線員,讓我們開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Neal Dingmann, of SunTrust.
SunTrust 的 Neal Dingmann。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Good morning, guys. Nice quarter. Say, first make sure I have this right. Do I recall, maybe just earlier this year you had a slight constraint of some Utica takeaway and today is that the case for any of your more active Utica areas?
各位早安。本季表現不錯。首先我想確認我理解正確:我記得也許就在今年稍早,你們在 Utica 的外運能力(takeaway)有些小幅受限;那麼今天在你們較活躍的 Utica 區域,是否仍是如此?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Well, we had slight constraints through the quarter in Utica in July REX was down for maintenance some 10 days. But in the bigger picture we are constrained now that we're pretty well maxed out on our REX capacity at 600 million cubic feet a day. So we are drilling at a pace in the Utica to just maintain that 600 million cubic feet a day.
是的,我們在本季期間 Utica 確實有些輕微限制,7 月 REX 因維護停運約 10 天。但從更大的角度來看,我們目前受限於我們的 REX 容量幾乎已滿載,為每日 6 億立方英尺。因此我們在 Utica 的鑽井節奏,是以維持每日 6 億立方英尺為目標。
What is the next shoe to drop, the next event that we are looking forward to? It's Rover coming to the Utica play -- The Rover Project. And we estimate that it's scheduled to arrive, to be built to our Seneca outlet sometime between mid-2017 and the end of 2017. So that's what's constraining us and keeping us maxed.
那下一個關鍵事件、我們期待的下一步是什麼?就是 Rover 進入 Utica 區塊——Rover 專案。我們估計該專案預計在 2017 年年中到 2017 年底之間建成並接入我們的 Seneca 出口。因此這就是目前限制我們、使我們維持滿載的因素。
We certainly have the alternative right there at Seneca to sell into TETCO. There's a tap there and plenty of capacity but obviously the TETCO price is so far behind, more than $1, $1 to $1.50 behind what we can sell netback-wise REX to Chicago and to REX Zone 3, that we would move the capital over to the Marcellus and are moving the resulting gas to better markets there.
我們當然也有另一個選項,就在 Seneca 可銷售到 TETCO。那裡有接點且容量充足,但顯然 TETCO 的價格落後太多,比我們透過 REX 銷往芝加哥以及 REX 第 3 區(Zone 3)所能取得的淨回收價(netback)低超過 1 美元,約低 1 到 1.50 美元,因此我們會把資本轉向 Marcellus,並將產出的天然氣轉往那裡更好的市場。
So, just keeping it at 600 million [cubic feet] a day, waiting for the next project.
所以,就是把產量維持在每日 6 億(立方英尺),等待下一個專案。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Got it. And, just one last follow-up, if takeaway was not really a concern, how do you think just in general terms about Marcellus growth and returns versus potential Utica.
了解。最後再追問一點:如果外運能力不是主要顧慮,你們整體上會如何看待 Marcellus 的成長與報酬,相較於 Utica 的潛力?
I'm looking at those prior slides where you just show the single economics of the Marcellus and Utica. Is it just simply looking at it the pretax returns that you're looking at there? Or again, just how you think about the two primary areas?
我在看你們前面的投影片,你們展示了 Marcellus 與 Utica 的單井經濟性。你們只是單純看那裡的稅前報酬率嗎?或是你們如何看待這兩個主要區域?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Yes. We think of it -- I would say, when you look at our acreage and the size of the opportunities that Marcellus is probably three times as big, rough numbers 450,000 net-plus acres in Marcellus versus 150,000 [net acres] in the Utica.
是的。我們的看法是——我會說,當你看我們的持有面積與機會規模時,Marcellus 大概是 Utica 的三倍;粗略來看,Marcellus 約 450,000 淨英畝以上,而 Utica 約 150,000(淨英畝)。
So, the size of the opportunity is greater and capital is being spent kind of in proportion there. But yes, the Marcellus does have stronger economics at this point.
因此機會規模更大,資本支出也大致按比例投入。不過是的,就目前而言,Marcellus 的經濟性確實更強。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Very good. Thank you guys.
非常好。謝謝各位。
Operator
Operator
David Tameron, Wells Fargo.
Wells Fargo 的 David Tameron。
- Analyst
- Analyst
When you talk about the longer laterals, if we think about the drilling program over the next two years, or even three years, how much of your development drilling will be on those longer laterals?
你們提到更長的水平段(laterals)。如果我們看未來兩年、甚至三年的鑽井計畫,你們的開發鑽井中有多少會採用這些更長的水平段?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
All of it will be on longer laterals. I think we're averaging 9,000 to 9,500 foot longer laterals. We gone out -- our longest laterals in the Utica are at 13,600 feet sideways and our longest now in the Marcellus are over 14,000 feet.
全部都會採用更長的水平段。我想我們平均的長水平段約在 9,000 到 9,500 英尺。我們也已經做到——我們在 Utica 最長的水平段為 13,600 英尺的水平延伸,而我們目前在 Marcellus 最長的已超過 14,000 英尺。
We're just completing our first 14,000 footer now, the Nova 2H, right in our central area. So, longer is better.
我們現在正完成第一口 14,000 英尺的井,也就是 Nova 2H,就在我們的中部區域。所以,越長越好。
We don't necessarily have to go longer since we have good -- well-located paths and infrastructure to keep it in the 9,000 foot to 12,000 foot range but we are very comfortable going longer. So, I think you'll see us go longer as time goes on, which just improves the economics, obviously.
我們不一定非得再更長,因為我們有良好的——井位路徑與基礎設施配置,讓我們能把水平段維持在 9,000 到 12,000 英尺的範圍內;但我們對於做得更長也非常有信心。因此我認為隨著時間推進,你會看到我們越做越長,這顯然會改善經濟性。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And then on the 1,500 number, have you tested higher? Do think it can take more sand? How should we think about -- its crept up the last few years, are you at what you view today as the optimal limit or do you think there is still upside to that number?
好的。那關於 1,500 這個數字,你們有測試更高嗎?你覺得它能承受更多砂嗎?我們該如何看待——過去幾年這個數字一直在上升,你們目前是否已達到你們認為的最佳上限,或你覺得仍有上行空間?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
There's still upside. So what was once piloting at 1,500 pounds sand per foot on our advance completions, that's now our base case that everything is 1,500 pounds but we are piloting at 1,750 pounds and at 2,000 pounds right now.
仍有上行空間。過去我們在先進完井(advanced completions)中試行每英尺 1,500 磅的支撐劑(砂),現在這已成為我們的基本情境,也就是所有井都以 1,500 磅為基準;但我們目前正在試行每英尺 1,750 磅以及 2,000 磅。
And putting away the fracs no problem. So, we look forward to seeing what that will do and have expectations that it will improve further.
而且壓裂作業都能順利完成,沒有問題。所以我們期待看看這會帶來什麼效果,也預期會進一步改善。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And then last one for me. NGL market -- or more importantly, infrastructure and takeaway. Can you just sum up, if you can, the way you view that in the Marcellus and Utica over the next couple of years.
好的。那我最後一題:NGL 市場——或更重要的是,基礎設施與外運能力。你能否總結一下,你們如何看待未來幾年 Marcellus 與 Utica 的情況?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Yes. So, we have reasonable markets in takeaway right now in the Marcellus. We are looking forward to a couple of projects coming in. We've talked about Mariners East II, which will open up things to the east for export out of Marcus Hook and we're an anchor shipper on that.
可以。目前在 Marcellus,我們有合理的市場與外運管道。我們也期待幾個專案上線。我們談過 Mariner East II,這將把通路打開到東部,透過 Marcus Hook 進行出口,而我們是該專案的主力承運商(anchor shipper)。
That's estimated to be in service in middle to end of next year. And so, that will open up things. We're recovering ethane right now and moving it either -- we're moving it through ATEX to markets that we have downstream of ATEX. So I think we see a positive environment going forward.
預計在明年年中到年底投入服務。這將帶來更多出路。我們目前正在回收乙烷,並將其運送——我們透過 ATEX 運送到 ATEX 下游我們所擁有的市場。因此我認為未來環境是正向的。
You can see that also in the futures prices for both ethane, propane, and butane that they are in Contango and as more infrastructure comes to the Northeast these -- not only the export markets. There's talk of another pipe that might go to Mont Belvieu out of our area then over the next five years the crackers come along and provide some local uptake, too, for the ethane. So generally, improving over the next number of years and overall, pricing is also improving.
你也可以從乙烷、丙烷與丁烷的期貨價格看出來,它們處於正價差(Contango)。隨著更多基礎設施進入美國東北部——不僅是出口市場——也有討論另一條管線可能從我們的區域通往 Mont Belvieu;此外在未來五年,裂解廠也將陸續投產,為乙烷提供一些本地需求。因此整體而言,未來幾年將持續改善,而整體價格也在改善。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay, thank you for the color and nice quarter.
好的,謝謝你提供的補充資訊,本季表現不錯。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Brian Singer of Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs 的 Brian Singer。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you, good morning.
謝謝,早安。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Good morning.
早安。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Following up on the topic of proppant per foot. Can you just talk to what you see as the limitations on this and, as you mentioned on David's question, you have had some strong results I think initially from the 1,750 pounds to 2000 pounds. What are the limitations on how high you can go and what do you expect to test next year?
延續每英尺支撐劑用量的話題。你能談談你看到的限制是什麼嗎?如你在回答 David 的問題時提到的,我想你們在每英尺 1,750 磅到 2,000 磅的初期結果相當不錯。你們能提高到多高的限制在哪裡?以及你們預計明年會測試什麼?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Well, all we have designed and projected so far are the 1,750 pounds and 2,000 pounds. But, with positive encouragement I would guess that we will go up even higher certainly others in industry and other players are using more. And we haven't recognized the break-over point yet.
目前我們所設計與預估的只有每英尺 1,750 磅與 2,000 磅。不過如果結果持續正向,我猜我們會再往上提高;業界其他公司與其他業者確實也在使用更多。我們尚未看到臨界點(break-over point)。
It's going to be a point of diminishing returns at some point, but we think mechanically we can put away the bigger fracs. So don't see a logistical or mechanical reason that we couldn't pump say 2,500 pounds. It works out, we've got the horsepower at the surface and friction reducers and so even on the long laterals we can break down the distance stages in a lateral; should be able to pump it away. We haven't needed to use gel, we are just using pure slick water without gels.
在某個時點會出現邊際報酬遞減,但我們認為在機械層面我們可以完成更大規模的壓裂。因此我看不出有物流或機械上的原因,讓我們不能例如泵注到每英尺 2,500 磅。就配置而言,我們地面有足夠的馬力、也有減阻劑,因此即便在長水平段上,我們也可以把水平段的分段距離拆分;應該能把它泵進去。我們不需要使用凝膠,只使用純滑水(slick water),不加凝膠。
And we've adjusted the size of our proppant to be able to get the jobs away 100%. I don't think we've seen the limit yet. But we just are a little bit conservative on our piloting and just want to do each pilot where we will compare and contrast. We will, say, on a certain pad we will drill four wells to the north and complete them with 2,000 pounds, and four wells to the south at 1,500 pounds and compare results.
而且我們已經調整了支撐劑的粒徑,使作業能夠 100% 順利完成。我不認為我們已經看到上限。但我們在試點上稍微保守一些,只想把每個試點都做成可以對照比較的方式。比如說,在某個井場(pad)上,我們會往北鑽四口井並以每英尺 2,000 磅完成壓裂,往南再鑽四口井以每英尺 1,500 磅完成壓裂,然後比較結果。
So we move a little bit slowly but just want to adjust one variable at a time. So, I do see it in our future that if the 2,000 pounds works, we will probably test higher.
所以我們推進得稍微慢一點,只是想一次只調整一個變數。因此,我確實看到未來如果每英尺 2,000 磅有效,我們很可能會測試更高的用量。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great. Thank you. And then, you brought up the topic of consolidation in your remarks, which you obviously made the acquisition here recently. Can you just give us a little bit of the lay of the land in West Virginia? And then, dry and wetter gas at Utica in Ohio? And where do you see the opportunities and how meaningful do you think that could be?
很好,謝謝。接著你在談話中提到整併的議題,你們顯然最近也做了這筆收購。你能否簡單說一下西維吉尼亞目前的整體情況?另外,俄亥俄州 Utica 的乾氣與較濕氣(wet gas)區域呢?你在哪裡看到機會?你認為那可能有多大的意義?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Yes. There are still opportunities and we're and all those discussions and I think you'll see further consolidation from the same guys who have been doing the consolidation thus far. I'm not sure they'll be of any greater magnitude, probably lesser.
是的。仍然有機會,而且我們也在進行相關討論;我想你會看到由迄今一直在做整併的同一批人繼續推動進一步整併。我不確定規模會更大,可能反而更小。
But there are still opportunities to bolt on assets here and there. On the corporate side, you've seen a little bit of that but not a whole lot. And I don't think we expect to see a whole lot of that right away.
但在這裡或那裡仍有機會加掛(bolt-on)一些資產。在公司層面,你已經看到一些,但不算多。而且我不認為我們預期短期內會看到很多這類交易。
But, I think the asset consolidation will continue for some time in the core. We've been forthcoming about our core outlines and our advance completion or high-graded core. So I think that's where you're really seeing most of that consolidation activity, in Southwest Marcellus and some in the Utica, too. We will continue to be part of that I think as long as the prices are reasonable.
不過,我認為核心區的資產整併還會持續一段時間。我們一直很坦率地說明我們的核心區邊界,以及我們的先進完井或高分級(high-graded)的核心區。因此我認為你看到的大部分整併活動,確實是在西南 Marcellus,Utica 也有一些。我想只要價格合理,我們也會繼續參與其中。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great, thank you.
很好,謝謝。
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Carlos Newell, Raymond James.
Carlos Newell,Raymond James。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks for taking my call. With regard to the marketing business could you provide a bit of color on the third-party contractual agreement where you released some unutilized firm transportation?
謝謝接聽我的提問。關於行銷業務,你能否就新聞稿中提到的第三方合約協議補充一些背景:你們釋出了一些未使用的固定運輸(firm transportation)容量?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Could you repeat that, Carlos? I couldn't quite hear all of that question.
Carlos,你可以重複一下嗎?我沒有完全聽清楚那個問題。
- Analyst
- Analyst
No problem. If you could just provide a bit of color on the third-party contractual agreement mentioned in the press release, where you released some of the unutilized firm transportation and the associated cost with them?
沒問題。如果你能就新聞稿中提到的第三方合約協議補充一些背景:你們釋出了一些未使用的固定運輸容量,以及相關的成本。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Sure. So what we're talking about is our Rover capacity and so -- actually it's our energy transfer but it is our ANR capacity that's southbound out of REX Zone 3. So we signed up for ANR capacity and that began last year.
當然。我們談的是我們的 Rover 容量——所以,實際上是我們在 Energy Transfer 那邊的,但它是我們從 REX 第 3 區(Zone 3)往南的 ANR 容量。我們先前簽了 ANR 容量,並且從去年開始生效。
But, as Rover was proposed by Energy Transfer as part of our reward, I think for stepping forward and being an anchor shipper on Rover, Energy Transfer agreed to pick up the tariff on ANR South beginning last July 1st, until Rover is in operation. And so, that amounts to picking up a tariff of on the order of $70 million to $80 million a year.
但是,當 Energy Transfer 提出 Rover 作為我們的回報之一時——我想是因為我們站出來成為 Rover 的主力承運人(anchor shipper)——Energy Transfer 同意自去年 7 月 1 日起,在 Rover 投運之前,承擔 ANR South 的費率(tariff)。因此,這相當於每年承擔約 7,000 萬到 8,000 萬美元的費率成本。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great. That's very helpful. And one other for me, what kind of increase in well costs should we expect from enhanced completions relative to model well costs currently being published?
很好,這非常有幫助。我還有一個問題:相較於目前公布的模型井成本(model well costs),加強型完井(enhanced completions)預期會讓單井成本增加多少?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Yes, the model well costs are really based on the 1,500 pounds per foot. And so as we escalate that to, let's say, towards 2,000 pounds, it's not a significant increase. It's in a couple hundred thousand dollar range, maybe $200,000 to $300,000 range, so it's not a real big increase at today's prices and costs.
是的,模型井成本其實是以每英尺 1,500 磅為基礎。當我們把用量提高到例如接近每英尺 2,000 磅時,增加幅度並不大,大概是幾十萬美元的範圍,可能約 20 萬到 30 萬美元,所以以今天的價格與成本來看,並不是很大的增加。
- Analyst
- Analyst
That's fair. All right, thanks guys. That's it for me.
合理。好,謝謝各位。我這邊就這些。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Dandruff be, Stifel.
Dandruff be,Stifel。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Nice sale on the non-core acreage in Pennsylvania. Just curious if there's any other non-core positions your currently marketing? And if so, what are the size of those packages?
你們在賓州出售非核心(non-core)土地的交易很不錯。我想了解是否還有其他非核心部位正在行銷出售?如果有,那些資產包的規模大概多大?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
There is nothing contemplated at this point, we're not marketing anything else. That one made a lot of sense. It's core to the basin so we like the acreage and the buyer likes the acreage but it's a long way from our infrastructure.
目前沒有任何這方面的規劃,我們沒有在行銷其他資產。那一筆交易非常合理。那塊地對盆地來說算核心,所以我們喜歡那塊地、買方也喜歡,但它離我們的基礎設施很遠。
And Antero's strategy from the very beginning has been to block up and build infrastructure, whether it is water or gathering compression around that block of acreage. So this one was a bit far afield and it made sense to part with that but almost everything else is pretty well blocked up in our position.
而 Antero 從一開始的策略就是把土地連成一大片(block up)並在那片區域周邊建設基礎設施,不論是供水系統或集輸與壓縮設施。那一塊相對偏遠,所以出售是合理的;但我們其他幾乎所有部位都已經在我們的持有區內相當完整地連成一片。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great. Makes sense. And then productivity per foot is up nicely with completion optimizations in both the highly rich condensate and highly rich. I'm curious can you talk about potential for productivity uplifts in the dryer portions of the Marcellus? And then also have you tested or seen any productivity improvements in Utica?
很好,合理。接著,透過完井優化,在高凝析油含量(highly rich condensate)以及高富氣(highly rich)區域,每英尺產能提升得很不錯。我想問的是:在 Marcellus 較乾的區段,產能提升的潛力如何?另外,你們在 Utica 是否已測試或看到任何產能改善?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Yes, first of all on the Marcellus, and I think we have in our Company presentation, we see others that, a little further north from our acreage, that have seen positive results from enhanced completions, bigger fracs, and we have a big outline on our map in our Company presentation on our website.
是的,先談 Marcellus。我想我們在公司簡報中有提到,我們看到在我們土地更北邊的一些同業,透過加強型完井、更大的壓裂(bigger fracs)取得了正面結果;而且我們在官網的公司簡報地圖上也畫出了一個很大的範圍輪廓。
And, so do expect that it can work as well over on the east side of our acreage. We are going to test that later this year as well as into 2017. We have a number of DUCs that are quite well positioned to run pilots for the enhanced completions and so, that is being put into motion now for the fourth quarter, that we'll do enhanced completions on the docks on the east side. And if those work as we think, there's a very good chance they will, then that will extend that big loop that we have on our website to cover a fair amount of our Eastern acreage.
因此我們預期在我們土地的東側也同樣可行。我們今年稍晚以及 2017 年都會進行測試。我們有不少 DUC(已鑽未完井)位置很好,適合做加強型完井的試點,因此目前已在推動,第四季會在東側的 DUC 上做加強型完井。如果結果如我們預期——而且很有可能會如預期——那麼我們官網上那個大範圍的輪廓就能延伸,涵蓋我們東部土地的相當一部分。
And then, in terms of the Utica, yes, we are ramping up there in terms of enhanced completions. We're doing some 2000-pound per foot testing over on that side as well. We adjust specific parameters. The Utica, we feel, needs a little less water per pound of sand and so on, but testing that as well, so it's -- in both plays, we're moving forward with bigger and bigger fracs.
至於 Utica,是的,我們也正在加速推進加強型完井。我們在那邊也在做每英尺 2,000 磅的測試。我們會調整一些特定參數;我們認為 Utica 每磅砂所需的水量可以少一點等等,我們也在測試。因此——在兩個區塊(plays)上,我們都在朝著越來越大的壓裂規模前進。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great. Thanks for all the color.
很好,謝謝你提供這些背景。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Holly Stewart of Scotia Howard Weil. Please go ahead.
下一個問題來自 Scotia Howard Weil 的 Holly Stewart。請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Good morning, gentlemen.
早安,各位先生。
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Good morning.
早安。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Hi, Holly.
嗨,Holly。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Just maybe -- most of my questions have been answered, so maybe just sort of thinking about 2017, you've outlined your growth, you've kind of talked about the CapEx, running six rigs today. Where do you think you need to be, I guess, from a rig count perspective to get to those 2017 targets?
我的問題大多已經被回答了,所以我想從 2017 年的角度再問一下:你們已經說明了成長目標,也談到資本支出(CapEx),目前運行六座鑽機。從鑽機數量的角度,你認為要達到 2017 年那些目標,需要到什麼水準?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Holly, you know the efficiency gains have just been so tremendous. We were at 30 days to drill on the Marcellus -- a 9000-foot Marcellus a year ago, and today we're down into the 12-day, 14-day range. I've seen some even better than that. So, it's amazing what you can do with six rigs. So we really don't see much of an increase in the rig count next year. We'll probably run around six rigs next year, 6 1/2, let's say, to achieve those targets.
Holly,你知道效率提升真的非常驚人。一年前我們在 Marcellus 鑽一口 9,000 英尺的井要 30 天,而今天已經降到 12 天到 14 天的區間;我甚至看過更好的。所以,用六座鑽機能做到的事情令人驚訝。因此我們不太認為明年需要大幅增加鑽機數。我們明年大概會維持在六座左右,或者說 6.5 座左右,以達成那些目標。
So we're in great shape net-wise, we don't need to add a lot of rigs. In fact, we've added a couple of longer term contracts just recently that term out through 2019, just to lock in day rates on the rig side. But we can get done what we need to get done with about six rigs next year. And of course, we do have the DUC inventory to complete, so that does keep the rig count down for the first part of next year, anyway.
所以就淨額(net)而言我們狀況很好,不需要增加很多鑽機。事實上,我們最近剛新增了幾份較長期的合約,期限一路到 2019 年,主要是為了鎖定鑽機端的日費率(day rates)。但明年大約六座鑽機就能完成我們需要完成的工作。當然,我們也有 DUC 庫存要完井,因此至少在明年上半年,這也會讓鑽機數維持在較低水準。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Sure. Appreciate that. Any color on those rig contracts you'd care to share?
當然。感謝。關於那些鑽機合約,有沒有什麼細節你願意分享?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Well, we essentially termed them out at kind of market today's - market day rates. And so it's a nice fit in the portfolio for us, that could get us the drill versus well, the service companies to put away some of it, I think people are optimistic on the service side that prices are going to improve for day rates and all, over the next few years. But it's hard to say when that happens exactly, so, they were also happy to put it away in their portfolio under a long-term arrangement.
嗯,我們基本上是以接近目前市場的——當前市場日費率——把它們簽到期。對我們來說,這在投資組合裡是很好的配置,因為這能讓我們拿到鑽機;相較之下,服務公司那邊我想是把一部分產能鎖進去。市場對服務端普遍偏樂觀,認為未來幾年日費率等價格會改善。但很難說確切什麼時候發生,所以他們也很樂意用長期安排把它放進他們的投資組合裡。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes. Perfect.
是的。很好。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
A little more color there. It might be relative to our legacy contracts. The day rate is about 60% or so of what they used to be.
再補充一點背景。相對於我們過去的存量合約,日費率大概只有以前的 60% 左右。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Wow. Okay. Great. Thank you. And then I know we've sort of talked about, and maybe, Paul, you were referencing this on the last question, but just some dry gas opportunities that you guys were seeing. Any update there, just kind of on strategy, or maybe potential development?
哇。好。很好。謝謝。然後我知道我們之前也有談到——也許 Paul,你在上一個問題有提到——你們看到的一些乾氣機會。那邊有沒有更新?就策略面,或可能的開發進度?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
We continue to see that the economics are a little better over on our rich gas side, so yes, we'll do some DUC completions and test out our enhanced completions, and just go from there. But I don't see that we're going to be shifting our rigs over to the east side in the Marcellus.
我們仍然看到富氣那一側的經濟性稍微更好,所以是的,我們會做一些 DUC(已鑽未完井)完井,並測試我們的強化完井方式,然後再視情況推進。但我不認為我們會把鑽機轉移到 Marcellus 的東側。
We are doing some dry gas drilling now in the Utica, and not way down depth, but just a mile or two miles from our rich fairway, slightly on the east side where those wells will not need processing, and we're using enhanced completion ideas there, as well. So, a little bit of dry gas going on in the Utica, and just to keep us topped off at that $600 million in a day and testing the DUCs on the east side of the Marcellus.
我們目前在 Utica 也有做一些乾氣鑽井,不是在很深的區段,但距離我們的富氣走廊大概一到兩英里、稍微偏東側,那些井不需要處理(processing),我們也在那裡使用強化完井的想法。所以 Utica 這邊有一些乾氣在進行,同時也讓我們維持在每天 6 億美元的水準,並在 Marcellus 東側測試 DUC。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Got it. Great. Thanks, guys.
了解。很好。謝謝各位。
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from James Sullivan of Alembic Global Advisers. Please go ahead.
下一個問題來自 Alembic Global Advisers 的 James Sullivan。請發問。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.
嗨,各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Good morning.
早安。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Start quickly on with the northeast basin spreads, obviously continuing to widen out in October, can you guys just comment a little bit on where you guys -- where your marketing revenue is running in October and for Q4, what you think you're expecting versus Q3? Can you give any color on that?
先快速問一下東北盆地的價差,10 月顯然持續擴大。你們能不能稍微評論一下:你們 10 月以及第四季的行銷(marketing)收入目前大概跑在什麼水準?相較第三季你們預期會怎麼樣?能否提供一些背景?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Yes, so the gas that's constrained in Southwest PA, so those producers that are selling into TETCO M2 and Dominion South, that gas is at a huge differential to the TCO pool to Nymex. So there's quite a spread there. We're buying plenty of third-party gas. It's out on the order of at a minimum, up to $200 million a day, and on some days there are some constraints in the system that it can be 2 times to 2.5 times that. So good spread there, which leads of course to enhanced marketing revenue.
可以。所以在賓州西南部受限的那些天然氣——也就是賣到 TETCO M2 和 Dominion South 的那些生產商——相對於 TCO pool 以及 Nymex 有非常大的價差。所以那裡的價差相當可觀。我們也買了很多第三方天然氣。量大概至少每天 2 億美元,有些日子系統出現一些限制時,可能會到 2 倍到 2.5 倍。所以那裡的價差很好,當然也帶來更高的行銷收入。
What you do see is that as it's constrained there, and the storage is full, that there are some constraints in the system. It's not as wide open. It's not perfectly wide open; otherwise we'd be filling our capacity with about a half a Bcf a day of third-party gas. So it bounces up and down from between $200 million and $500 million a day. But there's a good opportunity there and as the cold weather comes in and the storage constraints are removed, then we'll be able to buy more of that distressed gas.
你會看到的是,因為那邊受限、而且儲氣庫已滿,系統裡確實有一些瓶頸。它不是完全暢通;如果真的完全暢通,我們會用大約每天 0.5 Bcf 的第三方天然氣把我們的容量灌滿。所以它會在每天 2 億到 5 億美元之間上下波動。但那裡確實有不錯的機會;等到天氣轉冷、儲存限制解除後,我們就能買到更多這些被迫折價出售的天然氣。
We've also been buying quite a bit now on our Tennessee leg, that there are distressed producers all along that stretch from Broad Run. So our inlet for the Tennessee pipe in the vicinity of the TCO Pool that there's a lot of distressed gas between there and the Gulf. And so we're picking up a lot of volume, several hundred million cubic feet a day and picking up a pretty good spread. Yesterday's spread was $1 to $1.50 between what we could pick it up at and where we could drop it off at Columbia Gulf and Tennessee Gulf. So we continue to offset our unused capacity cost, and so it's going well.
我們最近也在 Tennessee 這一段買了不少,從 Broad Run 那一帶一路都有處境艱難的生產商。所以在靠近 TCO Pool 的 Tennessee 管線入口附近,從那裡到墨西哥灣之間有很多折價氣源。我們因此拿到很多量,每天好幾億立方英尺,並取得相當不錯的價差。昨天的價差是 1 到 1.50 美元,介於我們能買到的價格與我們能在 Columbia Gulf 和 Tennessee Gulf 交付的價格之間。所以我們持續用這些來抵銷未使用容量的成本,進展得很順利。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. Interesting. An interesting revenue story developing there. To go from kind of short-term to long-term then, you talked a little bit about ATEX and the ethane, and then NGL markets generally. But you have to pass in ATEX. What was your budget in upsizable pipe? What would your obligations and opportunity be on upsized capacity if the ethane market does develop in the way that we would obviously like to see it do over the next couple of years?
好,了解。那邊看起來是一個很有意思的收入故事。從短期轉到長期,你們談到了一些 ATEX 與乙烷,以及整體 NGL 市場。不過你們在 ATEX 上是有承諾的。你們在可擴管(upsizable)管線上的預算是多少?如果未來幾年乙烷市場真的如我們希望的那樣發展,你們在擴容後的義務與機會會是什麼?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Yes, I'm not sure I heard all of that, but I think, at the end of the day, we've got 20,000 barrels a day of capacity on ATEX. And it's in the, kind of the mid, so you could call it $0.15 range or so a gallon. There is some additional capacity on ATEX that's available on a spot basis, but there's not a whole lot. There's probably, on a given day, 15,000 barrels to 20,000 barrels a day maybe of capacity on the ATEX.
是的,我不確定我是否把你剛剛那段都聽清楚,但總之,我們在 ATEX 上有每天 20,000 桶的容量。費率大概在每加侖 0.15 美元左右。ATEX 也有一些額外容量可以用現貨方式取得,但不算多。大概在某些日子,ATEX 可能有每天 15,000 到 20,000 桶左右的可用容量。
So that's one outlet, but I think that Centennial -- or I'm sorry, Enterprise has talked about a new project, Centennial, just this week that would bring, say, another 100,000 barrels a day of ethane capacity. Mariner East II will also be able to move some, or Mariner East I. So we do see some more capacity breaking free here over the next couple of years.
所以那是一個出口;但我想 Centennial——抱歉,是 Enterprise——本週也談到一個新專案 Centennial,可能會再帶來例如每天 100,000 桶的乙烷運輸能力。Mariner East II 也能運一些,或者 Mariner East I 也可以。所以我們確實看到未來幾年會有更多容量釋放出來。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. Great. I was thinking about whether ATEX was upsizable, but maybe Centennial is in place of that. Last one from me.
好,很好。我原本在想 ATEX 是否可以擴管,但也許 Centennial 會取代那個。我的最後一題。
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
It is. It is. ATEX is upsizable, but I think there's a debate going on as to which one of those ends up going.
可以,是的。ATEX 是可以擴管的,但我想目前正在討論的是,這兩個方案最後哪一個會真正推進。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Understood. Thank you. That's helpful. Just one really quick last one if I could squeeze in to you guys. You guys had talked about, obviously, you're constrained in the Utica until Rover starts up. You guys talked about a mid- to late 2017 time, so that obviously, it's not in your control, but you've obviously probably want to do some ramp activity for that. What is your confidence on that?
了解。謝謝,這很有幫助。最後我再很快塞一題:你們提到 Utica 目前受限,要等 Rover 啟用。你們說大概是 2017 年中到年底,所以顯然不在你們控制之內,但你們應該也會想為此做一些爬坡(ramp)活動。你們對那個時程的信心如何?
Obviously, you might work that into your 2017 plans. And I know you guys haven't done that yet, but how are you guys feeling about the likelihood of tie-in roughly on schedule with that?
顯然你們可能會把這納入 2017 年的計畫。我知道你們還沒做完,但你們對於大致按期接管(tie-in)的可能性,現在感覺如何?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Well, we're in touch with Energy Transfer and everything looks like it's going according to plan so far. But I think the next several months will be telling as to when they get their permit to build. The pipe is already laid out in the yard at Massillon, Ohio to build the leg from Clarington up to Defiance. So it's just a question of when they can put that into motion. So as we say, we risk it earliest is middle of 2017 and I wouldn't say latest is end of 2017, but some sort of risking there.
嗯,我們一直和 Energy Transfer 保持聯繫,到目前為止看起來都按計畫進行。但我認為接下來幾個月會很關鍵,取決於他們何時拿到施工許可。管材已經在俄亥俄州 Massillon 的場地堆放好了,用來建從 Clarington 到 Defiance 的那一段。現在只是看他們什麼時候能把它啟動。所以如我們所說,我們評估最早是 2017 年中;我不會說最晚一定是 2017 年底,但大概就是那樣的風險區間。
As we get better visibility on that, as in when they get their permit to build, then it's fewer variables and just how long will it take them to build it, to put it in the ground. Six to nine months is some estimates that we've seen. So I think we'll have better confidence by this year-end as to whether they've got the green light to go forward; and with that we can begin ramping and starting our drilling in the Utica. But we'll try and feather it in.
等我們對此有更清楚的能見度——也就是他們何時拿到施工許可——變數就會少一些,剩下就是他們需要多久把它建好、埋到地下。我們看到的一些估計是 6 到 9 個月。所以我想在今年年底前,我們會更有把握他們是否已經拿到放行、可以往前推進;屆時我們就能開始爬坡並在 Utica 啟動鑽井。但我們會盡量循序漸進地導入。
We also have the ability to move our gas around a little bit, and as Rover comes on, move our gas, switch it between Rover and REX, and for any unused capacity, let's say, on Rover as we ramp into it, we'll be able to buy distressed third-party gas and fill that unused capacity, or at least offset the cost. So our thought process are in place to ramp into Rover as it comes on sometime between mid-2017 and call it mid-2018.
我們也有能力稍微調度一下我們的天然氣;隨著 Rover 上線,我們可以在 Rover 與 REX 之間調整、切換我們的天然氣。至於任何未使用的運能,比方說在我們逐步導入 Rover 的過程中,Rover 上可能會有未用運能,我們將能夠購買陷入困境的第三方天然氣來填補這些未用運能,或至少抵銷成本。因此,我們的思路與規劃已就緒,將在 Rover 於 2017 年年中到約 2018 年年中之間某個時間上線時,逐步導入並提升使用量。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. Great. Thanks for the call, you guys. I really appreciate it.
好的。非常好。謝謝你們的電話會議,各位。我真的很感謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ben Wyatt of Stephens. Please go ahead.
下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Ben Wyatt。請發問。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes, hey. Good morning, guys. Paul, maybe just going back to the well optimization slide, slide 9, focusing a lot on the profit per foot you guys are doing there. Just curious -- is this a good relationship that we're seeing, kind of the profit per foot to the barrels of water per foot? Meaning if, as you guys move to 2000 pounds of sand per - or profit per foot should we see a 50-barrel, 55-barrel per foot number on the water side, or is that not necessarily the case?
是的,嗨。各位早安。Paul,我想回到井優化那張投影片,第 9 張,你們在那裡很著重於每英尺的利潤。我只是好奇——我們看到的這個關係是否成立,也就是每英尺利潤與每英尺產水桶數之間的關係?意思是說,當你們把砂量提高到每——或每英尺利潤提高到 2,000 磅砂時,我們是否應該在水的那一側看到每英尺 50 桶、55 桶的數字,還是不一定?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
It's close. Directionally, it's the case, but it won't be directly proportional. If anything, it'll be a little bit less water, but proportionately close to the same.
很接近。方向上是這樣,但不會是完全成比例。如果有差異的話,水量會稍微少一點,但比例上大致相近。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then, maybe just on the divestiture, you guys care to share private buyer, public, just any color around that?
了解。這很有幫助。然後,關於資產剝離,你們願意分享一下是私募買家、上市公司,或任何相關資訊嗎?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Yes, I think it's a public buyer, and you can kind of triangulate with some of the other announcements made this week, I think, and see who bought that.
是的,我認為是上市公司買家;而且我想你可以結合本週其他一些公告來交叉推敲,看看是誰買了那個。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes. Yes. Very good. Appreciate it, guys. Nice quarter.
是的。是的。非常好。感謝各位。這一季表現不錯。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Arun Jayaram。請發問。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes, good morning. My first question, with the AM now trading at an all-time high, I was just wondering about your thoughts around strategic ways to benefit the AR shareholder from AM.
是的,早安。我的第一個問題是,AM 現在交易價格已創歷史新高,我想請教你們對於以策略性方式讓 AR 股東從 AM 中受益,有什麼想法?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Well, it's certainly a nice currency. Doing acquisitions is not really our game on the MLP side, but as we've said many times, we continue to look at downstream projects, and it's nice to have an attractive equity currency for that. For AR, there's no direct, specific plan to sell down any of those AM units. We certainly like the upside, even from here, with the growth that's built in and embedded over the next many, many years, so I think you'll see AR continue to hold most of that position.
嗯,這確實是一個很好的「貨幣」。在 MLP 端做併購並不是我們的主要玩法,但正如我們多次提到的,我們會持續尋找下游專案,而擁有具吸引力的股權作為交易貨幣對此很有利。對 AR 而言,目前沒有任何直接、具體的計畫要出售那些 AM 單位。我們當然也喜歡其上行空間,即便在目前價位之上,因為未來很多很多年都已內建並嵌入成長,所以我認為你會看到 AR 繼續持有那個部位的大部分。
- Analyst
- Analyst
That's helpful. Secondly, it sounds like there's no additional acreage that is kind of on the block, but nice transaction to monetize 17,000 acres for a nice upturn in terms of breakover value. As part of your broader inventory in acreage strategy, did you see further opportunities to divest, quote/unquote, maybe stuff that's just not going to be developed in the next 5 years to 10 years?
這很有幫助。第二,聽起來沒有更多的土地(acreage)正在待售,但這筆交易把 17,000 英畝變現,並在臨界價值(breakover value)方面帶來不錯的上調。就你們更廣泛的土地庫存策略而言,你們是否看到進一步剝離的機會——也就是說,可能是未來 5 到 10 年不會開發的部分?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
No, we don't. We like all of our acreage. Obviously, some is stronger than others but like it all, and so don't see ourselves calving any of that off to let go of it. Certainly, we have done lots of trades with the other peer companies in Appalachia and we'll continue to do that where it's mutually beneficial to block up. So there'll be some swapping back and forth, bigger pieces and smaller pieces, but nothing that we have that we'd say, don't like it and want to sell it.
沒有,我們不這麼看。我們喜歡我們所有的土地。當然,有些比其他更強,但我們都喜歡,因此不會把其中任何一部分切割出去、放手出售。當然,我們在阿帕拉契亞地區已經與其他同業做了很多交換交易,未來也會在彼此有利、能夠把區塊拼大(block up)的情況下繼續進行。所以會有一些互換,大塊小塊都有,但我們沒有任何一塊會說不喜歡、想賣掉。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And I may have just missed this because I dialed in just couple minutes late, but just can you remind me on where your DUCs are today and kind of the strategy and timing of normalizing those?
好的。我可能因為晚撥進來幾分鐘而錯過了,但你能提醒我一下你們目前的 DUC 在哪裡,以及使其回到正常水準的策略與時間點嗎?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Yes, about 22 of the DUCs are further east and in that area of dedication, that's to a third party. The remaining DUCs are sort of between there and even scattered throughout our very rich Doddridge County acreage, and so when we talk about DUCs, just keep in mind that they're true DUCs. They're wells that have been taken out of the development cycle, they've been drilled and cased, but we're not moving onto them to complete and drill out.
可以。大約有 22 口 DUC 位於更東邊、在那個專屬供應(dedication)的區域,那是給第三方的。其餘的 DUC 大致介於那裡與我們非常優質的 Doddridge 郡土地之間,甚至分散在各處。所以當我們談 DUC 時,請記住它們是真正的 DUC——這些井已經從開發週期中移出,已鑽井並下套管,但我們暫時不會進一步去完井與鑽通(drill out)。
So they truly are uncompleted wells that we've put on the shelf for the time being. We do plan to start getting back on some of those here in the fourth quarter. They won't be completed in the fourth quarter but we'll start to work on that DUC inventory. I'd say the BTU ranges from 1,150 Btu on the low end to as high as probably 1,250 Btu, 1,275 Btu on the high end, in terms of that DUC inventory.
所以它們確實是我們暫時擱置的未完井井。我們確實計畫在第四季開始回到其中一些井上作業。它們不會在第四季完成完井,但我們會開始處理這批 DUC 庫存。我會說,就這批 DUC 庫存而言,其 BTU 低端約 1,150 Btu,高端可能到 1,250 Btu、1,275 Btu。
- Analyst
- Analyst
And is that, the completion of DUCs you're going to start in the fourth quarter, is that already contemplated in your 2017 guide or could that provide some upside relative to that number?
那麼,你們在第四季開始著手完成 DUC 的作業,這是否已經納入你們 2017 年的指引?還是可能相對於該數字帶來一些上行空間?
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
It is because it's a long cycle, as you can imagine. All of our drilling is pad drilling now, I think that goes without saying, but we've got some pads now that have as many as 12 wells on them and we completed all 12 of those wells before we put them on line. So many, many pads have lots of wells. So even though we're going much faster with our stages per day, just getting on those pads and completing them, fracking the wells and then brining in the crew to drill out, add production equipment, all [that] takes some time.
已經納入了,因為如你所想,這是一個長週期。我們現在所有鑽井都是平台鑽井(pad drilling),這點我想不言自明;但我們現在有些平台上多達 12 口井,而且我們會在把它們投產之前先把這 12 口井全部完井。因此,很多平台都有很多口井。即便我們每天完成的壓裂段數(stages per day)快了很多,但要上到平台、完成完井、壓裂,然後再把隊伍帶進來做鑽通(drill out)、加裝生產設備等等,[這些] 都需要時間。
So it's not going to impact the fourth quarter production in any material way. And it is factored in to our capital guidance for the year to be able to do that, do the savings that we've seen on well costs throughout the year.
所以它不會對第四季產量造成任何實質性的影響。而且,為了能夠做這些工作,它已經反映在我們今年的資本支出指引中,也包含了我們全年在井成本上看到的節省。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. Nice results. Thanks a lot.
好的。成果很不錯。非常感謝。
- President and CFO
- President and CFO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Marshall Carver of Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Please go ahead.
下一個問題來自 Heikkinen Energy Advisors 的 Marshall Carver。請發問。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes. You mentioned the locking in of day rates at lower prices than the historical prices. Is that savings fully cooked in to the lower well costs in the presentation? Or is there another step down coming in well costs over the next quarter or two?
是的。你提到以低於歷史價格的水準鎖定日費率(day rates)。這些節省是否已完全反映在簡報中較低的井成本裡?還是未來一兩季井成本還會再往下調一階?
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Yes. It's generally baked in the, sort of the market day rates.
是的。基本上已經反映在——也就是市場日費率那一塊裡了。
- Analyst
- Analyst
All right. That's it from me. Thank you.
好的。我這邊就這樣。謝謝。
- Chairman and CEO
- Chairman and CEO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Michael Kennedy for any closing remarks.
問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Michael Kennedy 先生,請他做任何結語。
- SVP of Finance
- SVP of Finance
I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on our call today. Please feel free to reach out to us if you have any further questions. Thanks again. Bye, bye.
感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。如有任何進一步問題,歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。再次感謝。再見,再見。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
本次電話會議已結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。