Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Antero Resources' fourth-quarter and year-end 2015 earnings conference call and webcast.

大家好，歡迎收聽 Antero Resources 2015 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議與網路直播。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Kennedy, Senior Vice President of Finance and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Sir.

請注意，本活動將被錄音。現在我想將會議交給財務資深副總裁兼投資人關係主管 Michael Kennedy 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, for joining us for Antero's fourth-quarter and full-year 2015 investor conference call. We will spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

感謝各位參加 Antero 2015 年第四季與全年投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，接著開放問答。我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中一併檢視。

Before we start our comments, I would like to first remind you that during this call, Antero Management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在開始發言之前，我想先提醒各位，在本次電話會議中，Antero 管理團隊將作出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。實際結果與成果可能與此類陳述所表達、暗示或預測者存在重大差異。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO, and Glen Warren, President and CFO. I will now turn the call over to Glen.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Paul Rady，以及總裁兼財務長 Glen Warren。現在我把電話交給 Glen。

Thank you, Mike, and thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to highlight our recently announced 2016 capital budget and guidance, provide a review of fourth-quarter price realizations and expectations going forward and cover our fourth-quarter financial results. Paul will then review our 2015 drilling program and the cost efficiencies we achieved throughout the year, highlight early results we're seeing on our first Utica well in West Virginia and discuss the operational flexibility we've created to react to material commodity price movements up or down.

謝謝你，Mike，也感謝各位今天收聽。在我的發言中，我將重點說明我們近期公布的 2016 年資本預算與指引，回顧第四季價格實現情況與未來展望，並說明第四季財務結果。接著 Paul 將回顧我們 2015 年鑽井計畫與全年達成的成本效率，強調我們在西維吉尼亞州第一口 Utica 井所見到的初步成果，並討論我們為因應大宗商品價格大幅上漲或下跌所建立的營運彈性。

Lastly, during our comments, both Paul and I will periodically refer you to a handful of slides that are located in a separate conference call presentation on our homepage entitled fourth-quarter 2015 earnings call presentation. This is separate from our monthly investor presentation also located on our website, so please make sure you are reviewing the correct slide deck during the call.

最後，在我們的發言過程中，Paul 和我會不時請各位參考幾張投影片，這些投影片位於我們首頁上一份獨立的電話會議簡報，標題為 2015 年第四季財報電話會議簡報。這份簡報不同於同樣放在網站上的每月投資人簡報，因此請務必在會議期間確認您正在查看正確的投影片檔。

Now, onto our prepared comments. Let's first discuss our 2016 capital budget and guidance, which we announced last week. Our total budget for 2016 is $1.4 billion, which includes $1.3 billion for drilling and completion capital and $100 million for leasehold activity. This represents a 23% reduction compared to 2015 spending levels and a 58% reduction compared to 2014 spending levels.

現在進入我們準備好的發言內容。我們先討論上週公布的 2016 年資本預算與指引。我們 2016 年總預算為 14 億美元，其中包含 13 億美元的鑽井與完井資本支出，以及 1 億美元的租賃權益（leasehold）活動。相較於 2015 年支出水準，這代表減少 23%；相較於 2014 年支出水準，則減少 58%。

Driven by our current momentum and operational efficiencies, we expect to continue delivering top-tier production growth with 15% year-over-year growth expected in 2016 and 20% growth targeted for 2017. Our growth in the second half of 2016 and 2017 will be a key attribute for us as many E&P companies will shrink their business during this period as their lack of investment catches up.

在目前的動能與營運效率帶動下，我們預期將持續交付同業領先的產量成長：2016 年預期年增 15%，2017 年目標年增 20%。2016 年下半年與 2017 年的成長將是我們的一項關鍵特質，因為許多勘探與生產（E&P）公司在此期間將因投資不足的影響浮現而縮減其業務規模。

Due to our solid well economics and outstanding hedge book, we are not forced to rob 2017 momentum in order to drastically reduce CapEx. Additionally, we have structured our development plan in a manner that provides us with significant operational flexibility throughout the year to react to material commodity price movements, up or down, which Paul will touch on further in his remarks.

由於我們的單井經濟性穩健且避險部位（hedge book）表現出色，我們不必為了大幅削減資本支出而犧牲 2017 年的成長動能。此外，我們以能在全年提供顯著營運彈性的方式來規劃開發計畫，以便因應大宗商品價格的重大波動（上行或下行）；Paul 會在稍後的發言中進一步說明。

Now, let me take a step back to give a little more color to our 2016 budget and how we think about the business, which differs from many of our peers. As a leader in the shale revolution over the past 10 years, we recognized early the paradigm shift in how operators must differentiate themselves.

現在，讓我退一步，為各位補充一些關於我們 2016 年預算以及我們如何看待業務的背景；這點與許多同業不同。作為過去 10 年頁岩革命的領導者之一，我們很早就認知到營運商必須以不同方式來凸顯差異化的典範轉移。

In the past, operators focused heavily on the land grab as resource plays were being delineated and developed. Now that the rock has generally been identified and core positions established for North American shale plays, not only do operators need to distinguish themselves based on their asset base, but also on their ability to efficiently develop and maximize the return on the asset base. The capability to commercialize the asset base is critical.

過去，當資源型區塊正在被界定與開發時，營運商高度聚焦於「搶地」（land grab）。如今北美頁岩區塊的岩層大致已被辨識、核心區位也已建立，營運商不僅需要在資產基礎上展現差異化，也必須在高效率開發並最大化資產基礎報酬的能力上展現差異化。將資產基礎商業化的能力至關重要。

So how do we distinguish ourselves versus our peers? Let's first touch on the hedge book as this is a key differentiator for Antero versus our peer group today. I think it's extremely important to look at how the hedge book was actually constructed.

那麼，我們如何相較同業展現差異化？我們先談避險部位，因為這是目前 Antero 相較同業的一項關鍵差異化因素。我認為非常重要的一點是，要看這個避險部位實際上是如何建構出來的。

We began building this hedge book more than five years ago and have systematically hedged our risk over this time period rather than trying to lock in pricing when it was too late as the future's curve rolled forward eroding the contango. For us, this strategy eliminated the problem many E&Ps have faced over the past year, which is the reluctance to hedge at such depressed prices for the short term as commodity prices have continued to fall due to the oversupply.

我們在五年多前就開始建立這個避險部位，並在這段期間以系統化方式對沖風險，而不是等到太晚才試圖鎖定價格，因為隨著期貨曲線往前推移、正價差（contango）被侵蝕，鎖價空間會縮小。對我們而言，這項策略也消除了許多 E&P 公司在過去一年面臨的問題：由於供給過剩導致商品價格持續下跌，短期價格如此低迷，使得他們不願在這樣的價格水準下進行避險。

Our strategy has also been to sell forward our undeveloped gas at prices that we know will generate strong returns and that has paid off, too. As you can see on slide 2 in that deck titled Hedging Future Drilling, we've essentially hedged 100% of our production including all of our undeveloped production from yet to be drilled wells through 2017, at attractive prices of $3.94 per MMBtu and $3.57 per MMBtu respectively.

我們的策略也包括以前瞻方式出售尚未開發的天然氣，並以我們確信能產生強勁報酬的價格進行，這同樣已獲得回報。如同您在該簡報中第 2 張投影片（標題為「Hedging Future Drilling」）所見，我們基本上已將 2017 年以前（含 2017 年）100% 的產量進行避險，其中也包含所有尚未鑽井之井的未開發產量，避險價格分別為每 MMBtu 3.94 美元與每 MMBtu 3.57 美元，具吸引力。

To provide additional context around our hedge book, I'll refer you to slide 3, titled Highest Proportion Hedged Among E&P Operators. On this slide and based on our 2016 guidance, our 2017 target and 2018 consensus estimates, you can see we've hedged on average 94% of our expected production through 2018, at a hedge price of $3.81 per MMBtu. This compares to the peer group average over the same time period of just 20% hedged.

為了提供更多關於我們避險部位的背景，我請各位參考第 3 張投影片，標題為「Highest Proportion Hedged Among E&P Operators」。在這張投影片中，根據我們的 2016 年指引、2017 年目標以及 2018 年市場一致預估，您可以看到我們在 2018 年以前（含 2018 年）平均已對沖 94% 的預期產量，避險價格為每 MMBtu 3.81 美元。相較之下，同業在相同期間的平均避險比例僅為 20%。

The cash flow protection from this hedge book has provided us with a conviction and ability to enter into long-term commitments, including gathering, processing and most importantly, firm transportation. Most of the firm-transport portfolio was constructed over three years ago to secure the cheapest transportation, which means reversals and backhauls with the majority targeting the Gulf Coast. The firm-transportation portfolio accommodates our long-term development strategy and maximizes product realizations by providing access to the most favorable priced markets.

此避險部位所提供的現金流保護，使我們更有信心且有能力簽訂長期承諾，包括集輸（gathering）、處理（processing），以及最重要的固定運輸（firm transportation）。我們的大部分固定運輸組合是在三年多前建構完成，以確保最低成本的運輸方式，也就是透過反向運輸（reversals）與回程運輸（backhauls），且多數以墨西哥灣沿岸為目標市場。固定運輸組合可支援我們的長期開發策略，並透過提供進入價格最有利市場的管道，最大化產品實現價格。

As you can see on slide 4, titled Realized Price Road Map, we expect to receive premium pricing to NYMEX for 2016 and beyond, as we project gas sales to favorable markets to increase from 69% in 2015 to essentially 100% in 2016 and 2017. Due to our ability to access the best markets for virtually all of our gas volumes, we have guided to a premium to NYMEX of $0 to $0.10 per Mcfe including the BTU upgrade resulting from the ethane projection. So positive basis differential. We're likely the first Appalachian producer to forecast a positive basis differential in NYMEX in recent times.

如同您在第 4 張投影片（標題為「Realized Price Road Map」）所見，我們預期 2016 年及其後將取得相對 NYMEX 的溢價定價，因為我們預估銷往有利市場的天然氣銷售占比將由 2015 年的 69% 提升至 2016 年與 2017 年幾乎 100%。由於我們幾乎所有天然氣量都能進入最佳市場，我們給出的指引為相對 NYMEX 溢價每 Mcfe 0 至 0.10 美元，其中包含乙烷外送（ethane projection）所帶來的 BTU 升級效益。因此是正的基差差異（basis differential）。我們很可能是近年第一家預測相對 NYMEX 呈現正基差差異的阿帕拉契亞（Appalachian）生產商。

On slide 5, titled Firm Transport and Sales Portfolio, you can see that we were able to secure this firm-transportation portfolio with only approximately $100 million in net marketing expenses in 2016, and similar amounts in the future until our production fills our capacity closer to the end of the decade. That's $0.15 to $0.20 per Mcfe of net marketing expense in 2016. The first half of 2016 has higher FT capacity and is expected to result in a higher net marketing expense run rate.

在第 5 張投影片〈Firm Transport and Sales Portfolio〉中，您可以看到，我們在 2016 年僅以約 1 億美元的淨行銷費用就成功建立了這個固定運輸（FT）組合；在未來幾年也將維持類似水準，直到本十年末期我們的產量更接近填滿運能為止。這相當於 2016 年每 Mcfe 0.15 至 0.20 美元的淨行銷費用。2016 年上半年 FT 運能較高，預期將使淨行銷費用的運行率更高。

However, we are off to a strong start to the year as January net marketing expense came in at approximately $10 million, which was ahead of expectations. When you compare the $100 million of net marketing expenses for the full-year 2016 to the $1.1 billion of expected hedge proceeds during 2016, and the positive basis differential to NYMEX, you can see the FT portfolio is delivering substantial value to Antero.

不過，我們今年開局強勁，1 月的淨行銷費用約為 1,000 萬美元，優於預期。將 2016 全年 1 億美元的淨行銷費用，與 2016 年預期約 11 億美元的避險收益，以及相對 NYMEX 的正基差差異相比，您可以看到 FT 組合正為 Antero 帶來可觀價值。

In addition to the hedge book providing us with a conviction to build our long-term diverse firm-transportation portfolio, the hedges also help offset the risk of borrowing base reductions from lower price decks. This allows us to enjoy significant liquidity that we can count on due to the stability of our bank borrowing base and also gives us more comfort around our development plan that targets peer-leading growth.

除了避險部位讓我們更有信心建立長期且多元的固定運輸組合之外，避險也有助於抵銷因價格曲線下修而導致借款基礎（borrowing base）被調降的風險。這使我們能享有可依賴的顯著流動性，因為我們的銀行借款基礎穩定；同時也讓我們對以同業領先成長為目標的開發計畫更有把握。

As you see on slide 6, titled Borrowing Base Increase Relative to the Peers, Antero was one of only a few operators during the fall of 2015 redetermination season that increased its borrowing base, increasing it by $500 million to $4.5 billion. Based on the committed available capacity of $2.6 billion under our credit facility at year end and our locked in revenues, we have the ability to fully fund our development program for the foreseeable future with our hedges and credit facility alone.

如您在第 6 張投影片〈Borrowing Base Increase Relative to the Peers〉所見，Antero 是 2015 年秋季重訂（redetermination）期間少數幾家提高借款基礎的營運商之一，將借款基礎增加 5 億美元至 45 億美元。基於年末我們在信貸融資項下 26 億美元的已承諾可用額度，以及我們鎖定的收入，我們有能力在可預見的未來僅依靠避險與信貸融資就為開發計畫提供全額資金。

Staying on the strength of our balance sheet, I'd like to briefly touch on the recently announced affirmed ratings we received from Moody's and S&P, relative to other E&P operators. As highlighted on slide 7, titled Antero Credit Quality Affirmed at Ba2/BB, Antero was one of only five public Baa or Ba-rated E&P companies that received affirmed ratings from Moody's during its recent thorough review and one of only two public Ba-rated E&P companies that received affirmed ratings.

延續資產負債表的強勁表現，我想簡要談談我們近期獲得穆迪（Moody’s）與標普（S&P）確認（affirmed）的評等，相較於其他 E&P 營運商的情況。如第 7 張投影片〈Antero Credit Quality Affirmed at Ba2/BB〉所示，Antero 是穆迪近期全面審查中，僅有的五家獲得確認評等的上市 Baa 或 Ba 級 E&P 公司之一，也是僅有的兩家獲得確認評等的上市 Ba 級 E&P 公司之一。

The other 16 Baa and Ba-rated companies received downgrades ranging from one to five notches. Out of the group of 12 public companies rated Ba prior to the review, Antero moved from the eighth highest rated Ba producer out of 12 to the fourth highest Ba-rated producer out of eight, following the review. That was after five investment grade E&Ps were downgraded to Ba or B.

其他 16 家 Baa 與 Ba 級公司則遭到降評，幅度介於 1 到 5 個級距（notches）。在審查前被評為 Ba 的 12 家上市公司中，審查後 Antero 由 12 家中的第 8 高評等 Ba 生產商，提升為 8 家中的第 4 高評等 Ba 生產商。這是在 5 家投資級 E&P 被降至 Ba 或 B 之後的結果。

In fact, eight of the 12 public previously Ba-rated companies were downgraded to B or even CCC levels. This reaffirmation supports our continued message that we're much better positioned than most of our peers to execute on our business plan in the current downturn and have the flexibility to further adjust our development plan up or down depending on commodity prices.

事實上，先前 12 家上市 Ba 級公司中，有 8 家被降至 B，甚至 CCC 等級。這次評等再確認支持我們一貫的訊息：在目前景氣下行期間，我們相較多數同業具備更佳的條件來執行商業計畫，並且能依商品價格彈性上調或下調開發計畫。

Now, onto fourth-quarter price realizations. During the quarter, there were some significant developments that occurred as it relates to our natural gas sales volumes. First, the Stonewall pipeline was placed in service November 30. This pipeline has enabled us to shift volume from the unfavorable Dominion South and TETCO M2 price indices to more favorable TCO, NYMEX and Gulf Coast-based pricing.

接著談第四季的價格實現。本季在天然氣銷售量方面出現了一些重大進展。首先，Stonewall 管線於 11 月 30 日投入服務。該管線使我們得以將銷量自不利的 Dominion South 與 TETCO M2 價格指數，轉移至較有利的 TCO、NYMEX 與以墨西哥灣沿岸（Gulf Coast）為基礎的定價。

In conjunction with the Stonewall Pipeline being placed in service, we also executed on the early termination of a 130 MMCFPD firm sales agreement that was contracted at Dominion South base pricing, shifting that 130 MMCFPD to the TCO index. While the termination charge associated with this contract showed up as a $28 million non-cash termination expense in the fourth quarter, the volume shift from the Dominion South to TCO index will enable us to realize approximately $60 million of incremental revenue over the next two years based on current strip pricing.

配合 Stonewall 管線投入服務，我們也提前終止了一份以 Dominion South 基礎定價簽訂的 130 MMCFPD 固定銷售合約，並將該 130 MMCFPD 轉至 TCO 指數。雖然與該合約相關的終止費用在第四季反映為 2,800 萬美元的非現金終止費用，但基於目前的遠期曲線（strip）價格，從 Dominion South 轉至 TCO 指數的量移轉，將使我們在未來兩年可實現約 6,000 萬美元的增量收入。

What does this all mean from a price realization standpoint? If you refer to slide 8, titled Fourth Quarter Natural Gas Realization, you can see we received a $0.14 per Mcf negative differential to NYMEX during the quarter before hedging, or $0.38 higher than the average from the peer group that has reported so far. Importantly, when Stonewall was placed in service, we realized a $0.01 per Mcf premium to NYMEX before hedging for the month of December. We sold 83% of our production at favorable indices in the quarter including Chicago, Gulf Coast, NYMEX and TCO, which was an increase from the 68% of gas we sold to favorable indices in the prior quarter.

那麼，從價格實現的角度來看，這些代表什麼？若您參考第 8 張投影片〈Fourth Quarter Natural Gas Realization〉，可見本季在避險前，我們相對 NYMEX 的差異為每 Mcf 負 0.14 美元，或比目前已公布的同業平均高出 0.38 美元。重要的是，Stonewall 投入服務後，我們在 12 月單月於避險前實現了相對 NYMEX 每 Mcf 0.01 美元的溢價。本季我們有 83% 的產量以較有利的指數出售，包括芝加哥、墨西哥灣沿岸、NYMEX 與 TCO；相較前一季以有利指數出售的天然氣占比 68%，有所提升。

We also had natural gas settled hedge gains of $244 million or $2.27 per Mcf in the quarter. Including these hedge gains, our realized natural gas price was $4.40 per Mcf or a $2.13 premium to NYMEX. This was $1.40 per Mcf higher than our next closest peer thus far and $1.62 per Mcf higher than the peer average to date. Our realized natural gas price continues to be the most attractive of our Marcellus peers, driven primarily by the geographic location of our production, our significant hedge book and our diverse firm transport accessing favorable markets.

本季我們也有已結算的天然氣避險收益 2.44 億美元，或每 Mcf 2.27 美元。納入這些避險收益後，我們的天然氣實現價格為每 Mcf 4.40 美元，或相對 NYMEX 溢價 2.13 美元。截至目前，這比我們最接近的同業高出每 Mcf 1.40 美元，也比同業平均高出每 Mcf 1.62 美元。在我們的 Marcellus 同業中，我們的天然氣實現價格仍是最具吸引力者，主要受惠於產區地理位置、龐大的避險部位，以及多元的固定運輸以進入較有利的市場。

On the NGL front, we realized $17.37 per C3-plus barrel before hedging, or 41% of WTI, and $21.65 per C3-plus barrel after hedging, or 52% of WTI. We are 100% hedged on propane in 2016 at $0.59 per gallon and gain access to international markets in 2017 through Mariner East II capacity once in service.

在 NGL 方面，我們在避險前的 C3-plus 每桶實現價格為 17.37 美元，約為 WTI 的 41%；避險後的 C3-plus 每桶實現價格為 21.65 美元，約為 WTI 的 52%。我們在 2016 年對丙烷已 100% 避險，價格為每加侖 0.59 美元；並將在 2017 年透過 Mariner East II 的運能（投入服務後）取得進入國際市場的管道。

Rounding out my comments today, let's touch on quarterly financial results. Adjusted net revenue increased 8% from the prior-year quarter to $630 million on 18% higher net production. Per unit cash production expenses were $1.46 per Mcfe, a 5% decrease compared to $1.54 per Mcfe in the prior year quarter.

最後總結我今天的評論，我們來談談季度財務結果。在淨產量增加 18% 的帶動下，調整後淨營收較去年同期增加 8% 至 6.30 億美元。單位現金生產費用為每 Mcfe 1.46 美元，較去年同期每 Mcfe 1.54 美元下降 5%。

As a reminder, our production expenses include lease operating expense, gathering, compression, processing, transportation as well as production tax. Our G&A expense for the quarter was $0.27 per Mcfe excluding non-cash stock compensation expense, driven slightly higher by some one-time items.

提醒一下，我們的生產費用包含租賃營運費（lease operating expense）、集輸（gathering）、壓縮（compression）、處理（processing）、運輸（transportation）以及生產稅。本季在排除非現金股票薪酬費用後，我們的 G&A 費用為每 Mcfe 0.27 美元，因部分一次性項目而略為上升。

As expected, our net marketing expense was $0.38 per Mcfe, the result of gaining additional capacity on two new pipelines during the quarter. The first pipeline, Tennessee Gas, came online November 1, 2015. However, we were not able to utilize it until December 1, when the Stonewall pipeline was commissioned. The startup costs related to these two pipelines was approximately $15 million or $0.11 per Mcfe. That's $0.11 of that $0.38 per Mcfe for the quarter. Following the Stonewall in-service date, we've increased our utilization from 55% in December 2015 to 80% in January of this year, so you can see the trend there.

如預期，我們的淨行銷費用為每 Mcfe 0.38 美元，主要是因為本季在兩條新管線上取得了額外運能。第一條管線 Tennessee Gas 於 2015 年 11 月 1 日上線。然而，直到 12 月 1 日 Stonewall 管線啟用後，我們才得以使用該運能。與這兩條管線相關的啟動成本約為 1,500 萬美元，或每 Mcfe 0.11 美元。也就是本季每 Mcfe 0.38 美元中的 0.11 美元。在 Stonewall 投入服務後，我們的使用率已從 2015 年 12 月的 55% 提升至今年 1 月的 80%，因此您可以看到這個趨勢。

Adjusted EBITDAX for the fourth quarter was $308 million, 7% lower than the prior-year quarter, primarily due to the decreased product revenue from lower commodity prices. Lastly, for the quarter, we reported adjusted net income of $54 million or $0.20 per share.

第四季調整後 EBITDAX 為 3.08 億美元，較去年同期下降 7%，主要係因商品價格走低導致產品營收下滑。最後，就本季而言，我們報告調整後淨利為 5,400 萬美元，或每股 0.20 美元。

Before I turn it over to Paul to cover our development program and our operational results, I'd like to summarize the quarter and outlook moving forward. We continue to achieve tremendous growth with natural gas industry leading price realizations in purely cash margins. We've built a highly sustainable business model for the large and growing production base, a market-leading firm-transportation position, a significant long-term hedge position with a mark-to-market value of $3.3 billion as of January 31, 2016 strip pricing and $3.5 billion of consolidated liquidity under our credit facility since of year end, driven by the incremental firm transport recently placed in service in the Marcellus for forecasting a premium to NYMEX before hedges on our natural gas production in 2016 and beyond.

在我把時間交給 Paul 說明我們的開發計畫與營運成果之前，我想先總結本季表現以及未來展望。我們持續實現顯著成長，並在純現金利潤率方面達成天然氣產業領先的實現價格。我們已為龐大且持續成長的產量基礎建立高度可持續的商業模式、具市場領先地位的長期固定運輸（firm transportation）布局、以及顯著的長期避險部位；以 2016 年 1 月 31 日的期貨曲線（strip pricing）計算，其按市價評估（mark-to-market）價值為 33 億美元；此外，截至年末我們在授信額度下的合併流動性為 35 億美元。上述成果主要受惠於近期在 Marcellus 投入服務的新增固定運輸能力，使我們在 2016 年及之後的天然氣產量（避險前）得以預期相對 NYMEX 取得溢價。

We've built a business model that truly works in the bottom of the cycle and thrives as prices recover. With that, I'll turn it over to Paul for his comments.

我們建立了一個在景氣循環底部也能真正運作、並在價格回升時蓬勃發展的商業模式。接下來我把時間交給 Paul 發表他的看法。

Thanks, Glen. In my comments today I'm going to review results from our 2015 development program highlighting our low development cost nature, provide a brief update on our first Utica well in West Virginia, it's called the Rymer 4HD, and further discuss the operational flexibility that we've built into our 2016 development plan.

謝謝你，Glen。我今天的評論將回顧我們 2015 年開發計畫的成果，強調我們低開發成本的特性；簡要更新我們在西維吉尼亞州的第一口 Utica 井（名為 Rymer 4HD）；並進一步說明我們在 2016 年開發計畫中所建立的營運彈性。

First, let's discuss the 2015 development plan. We executed our 2015 development program ahead of plan, growing our production some 48% year over year, despite shutting in approximately 45 MMCFPD equivalent of production during the fourth quarter, due to weak local pricing at Dominion South and the TETCO M2 index. As Glen touched on, after gaining access to the Stonewall pipeline late in the quarter, we were able to shift virtually all of this locally priced gas being sold at Dominion South and TETCO M2 indices to the more favorable TCO and Gulf Coast indices. So we are less susceptible to further shut-ins due to weak local pricing.

首先，讓我們討論 2015 年開發計畫。我們的 2015 年開發計畫執行超前進度，年產量成長約 48%；儘管第四季因 Dominion South 與 TETCO M2 指數的當地價格疲弱，我們關停（shut in）了約 45 MMCFPD 當量的產量。如 Glen 所提及，在本季後期取得 Stonewall 管線的輸送通道後，我們得以將幾乎所有原本以 Dominion South 與 TETCO M2 指數定價銷售的當地天然氣，轉移至更有利的 TCO 與墨西哥灣沿岸（Gulf Coast）指數。因此，我們較不易因當地價格疲弱而再度關停產量。

On the cost front, we achieved a number of operational efficiencies and service cost reductions, driving down drilling costs throughout the year. In the Marcellus, we improved our average drilling days from 29 days to 24 days and increased our completion stages per day by 8%. In the Utica, we improved our average drilling days from 34 days to 30 days and increased our completion stages per day by 17% as compared to 2014. These operational improvements, combined with service cost reductions, resulted in a 16% and 18% improvement in 2015 well costs, relative to 2014 costs in the Marcellus and Utica, respectively.

在成本方面，我們達成多項營運效率提升與服務成本下降，推動全年鑽井成本下滑。在 Marcellus，我們將平均鑽井天數由 29 天改善至 24 天，並將每日完井分段（completion stages）數提高 8%。在 Utica，我們將平均鑽井天數由 34 天改善至 30 天，且相較 2014 年，每日完井分段數提高 17%。這些營運改善加上服務成本下降，使 2015 年單井成本相較 2014 年在 Marcellus 與 Utica 分別改善 16% 與 18%。

Looking ahead to 2017, based on the current spot-market rates we're seeing today for rigs and completion crews, we believe we can achieve an additional 12% in cost savings just from letting legacy rig and completion crew contracts roll off over the course of 2016. This does not include any additional cost savings from continued operational efficiencies.

展望 2017 年，依據我們目前看到的鑽機與完井隊伍即期市場（spot-market）費率，我們相信僅透過在 2016 年期間讓既有鑽機與完井隊伍合約到期不續約，就可再達成額外 12% 的成本節省。此數字尚未包含持續提升營運效率所帶來的任何額外節省。

Moving on to our first Utica well test in West Virginia, we completed the Rymer 4HD well in Tyler County, West Virginia, with a 6,620 foot lateral in late December. As you can see on slide 9, entitled Antero's First Utica Dry Gas Well, the well's been on sales for 60 days and has produced at a restricted daily rate of approximately 20 million cubic feet, which our original plan, yielding a total of 1.2 Bcf during the two-month period.

接著談我們在西維吉尼亞州的第一口 Utica 井測試。我們於 12 月下旬在西維吉尼亞州 Tyler 郡完成 Rymer 4HD 井，水平段長度為 6,620 英尺。如投影片 9（標題為「Antero 的第一口 Utica 乾氣井」）所示，該井已銷售 60 天，並以受限的日產量約 2,000 萬立方英尺運作，符合我們原先計畫；兩個月期間累計產量為 12 億立方英尺（1.2 Bcf）。

We'll continue to analyze the flowback data, which will give us a much better understanding of the geologic characteristics and overall resource potential of the Dry Utica in West Virginia. I will say that our early results are very encouraging and appear to be consistent with other strong results announced by operators near our acreage position.

我們將持續分析返排（flowback）資料，這將使我們更深入了解西維吉尼亞州 Dry Utica 的地質特性與整體資源潛力。我可以說，我們的初步結果非常令人鼓舞，且似乎與鄰近我們礦權位置的其他營運商所公布的強勁結果一致。

Obviously, economics will drive the pace and the volume of drilling, however, you can also expect development to be closely tied to takeaway and to gas price realizations making it more attractive for operators such as ourselves with the ability to access premium markets. Our ability to access premium markets for the Utica dry gas is currently tied to the Rover pipeline, which is scheduled to be in service in mid 2017.

顯然，經濟性將決定鑽井的速度與規模；不過，您也可以預期開發將與外運能力（takeaway）以及天然氣實現價格緊密連動，這會使像我們這類能夠進入溢價市場的營運商更具吸引力。我們對 Utica 乾氣進入溢價市場的能力，目前與 Rover 管線相關；該管線預計於 2017 年年中投入服務。

To further touch on our 2016 development program, I want to highlight the operational flexibility we built into the program and also discuss the well economics associated with the targeted development plan. First, on the operational flexibility, we have structured our 2016 development program to provide us with significant optionality to react to material changes in commodity prices, up or down, throughout the year.

為了進一步說明我們 2016 年開發計畫，我想強調我們在計畫中建立的營運彈性，並討論目標開發方案所對應的單井經濟性。首先，在營運彈性方面，我們已將 2016 年開發計畫設計為具備顯著選擇權，可在全年商品價格出現重大變動（上或下）時做出反應。

We are currently planning on completing 80 wells in the Marcellus and 30 wells in the Utica with average lateral lengths of 9,000 feet and 8,800 feet, respectively. However, we do have the ability to reduce our current $1.3 billion development plan as six of our contracted rigs expire over the course of the year. Our current budget assumes we will renew or pick up additional spot rigs as some of the contracted rigs expire, but again, we have the flexibility to go either way.

我們目前規劃在 Marcellus 完成 80 口井、在 Utica 完成 30 口井，平均水平段長度分別為 9,000 英尺與 8,800 英尺。然而，隨著我們簽約的鑽機中有 6 部在今年陸續到期，我們確實有能力下調目前 13 億美元的開發計畫。我們目前的預算假設在部分簽約鑽機到期後，我們將續約或增聘額外的即期鑽機（spot rigs）；但如前所述，我們也保有雙向調整的彈性。

We may not renew or pick up spot rigs, but to the extent commodity prices materially improve from current levels, we are well positioned to accelerate activity as a result of our sizable inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells, which is expected to increase from 50 wells currently to approximately 70 by year-end 2016. We are able to target 20% production growth in 2017, due to this inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells, coupled with our hedge revenue, which will allow us to deliver 20% growth while living within cash flow, if necessary.

我們可能不續約或不增聘即期鑽機；但若商品價格自目前水準出現實質改善，憑藉我們龐大的已鑽未完井（drilled but uncompleted, DUC）庫存，我們具備加速作業的良好條件。該庫存預計將由目前的 50 口增加至 2016 年底約 70 口。由於這些已鑽未完井庫存，再加上我們的避險收入，我們能在 2017 年鎖定 20% 的產量成長；如有需要，也能在不超出現金流的情況下交付 20% 成長。

Lastly, before I wrap up, I'd like to touch on our current inventory and well economics assuming year-end 2015 strip pricing. As outlined on slide 10, we have nearly 2,000 undrilled liquids-rich locations between the Marcellus and Utica shale plays that generate low 20% to mid 30% rates of return based on current strip pricing. These locations span the 1,250 to 1,300 plus BTU spectrum in the Marcellus and the 1,175 to 1,235 BTU spectrum in the Utica.

最後，在我結束之前，我想在假設 2015 年底期貨曲線（strip pricing）的前提下，談談我們目前的庫存與單井經濟性。如投影片 10 所示，我們在 Marcellus 與 Utica 頁岩區塊合計擁有近 2,000 個尚未鑽探的富液（liquids-rich）井位，依目前期貨曲線定價可產生約低 20% 至中 30% 的報酬率。這些井位在 Marcellus 的熱值（BTU）範圍約為 1,250 至 1,300+，在 Utica 的熱值範圍約為 1,175 至 1,235。

Additionally, we have over 250 Utica dry locations in Ohio that have approximately 25% rates of return at year-end 2015 strip pricing. And this, of course, excludes the almost 1,900 locations associated with our West Virginia and Pennsylvania Utica dry gas resource. Certainly, our current test, the Rymer 4HD well I just mentioned, will provide additional insight on Utica dry gas well recoveries in both Ohio and West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and combined with continued operational gains, will give clarity on well economics over time.

此外，我們在俄亥俄州還有超過 250 個 Utica 乾氣井位，在 2015 年底期貨曲線定價下約有 25% 的報酬率。當然，這還不包含與我們在西維吉尼亞州與賓夕法尼亞州 Utica 乾氣資源相關的近 1,900 個井位。可以確定的是，我剛提到的 Rymer 4HD 井這次測試，將為俄亥俄州以及西維吉尼亞州、賓夕法尼亞州的 Utica 乾氣單井可採收量提供更多洞見；並且結合持續的營運改善，將使我們隨時間更清楚掌握單井經濟性。

It's worth mentioning that when you incorporate the hedge book, in order to arrive at a blended gas and NGL price, these rates of return increase dramatically to a range of mid 40% to mid 80%. As Glen pointed out in his remarks and as illustrated on slide 2, we have hedged virtually all of our undeveloped production through 2017, as well as an additional 2.1 Tcf equivalent for the 2018 to 2022 time period. So we do feel the blended hedge returns are relevant.

值得一提的是，當你把避險部位納入，以得出加權後的天然氣與 NGL（天然氣液）混合價格時，這些報酬率會大幅提升至中 40% 到中 80% 的區間。如 Glen 在發言中指出，且如投影片 2 所示，我們已對幾乎所有未開發產量完成至 2017 年的避險，並且對 2018 至 2022 年期間額外 2.1 Tcf 當量也進行了避險。因此，我們確實認為納入避險後的混合報酬率具有參考性。

Lastly, we regularly encounter questions around what assumptions are included in our single-well economics. Antero believes in transparency and allowing others to diligence and replicate our analysis, and so consequently, we've elected to fully burden our single-well economics with all pad and facility costs, as well as all cash production expenses, including midstream costs and firm-transportation costs.

最後，我們也經常被問到，我們的單井經濟性分析中包含了哪些假設。Antero 相信透明化，並讓外界能夠盡職調查並複製我們的分析，因此我們選擇在單井經濟性中完整納入所有井場（pad）與設施成本，以及所有現金生產費用，包括中游成本與固定運輸（firm-transportation）成本。

Importantly, the midstream costs contain a burden for Antero Midstream-related fees and the firm-transportation costs include both the fixed and variable cost components associated with our flowing gas on the downstream pipe. While both Glen and I have highlighted many of the reasons we believe Antero is differentiated from our peer group, we think it's essential to let the data speak for itself.

重要的是，中游成本包含與 Antero Midstream 相關費用的分攤，而固定運輸成本則包含我們下游管線上流動天然氣所對應的固定與變動成本組成。雖然 Glen 和我已強調許多我們認為 Antero 與同業不同之處的原因，但我們認為讓數據自己說話至關重要。

If you look at slide 11, titled Antero EBITDAX outperformance, you can see that Antero's fourth-quarter EBITDAX totaled $308 million, as we had achieved an EBITDAX margin of $2.03 per Mcfe. As illustrated on the top half of the page, we generated approximately $60 million higher EBITDAX than our next closest peer during the quarter and only 7% less EBITDAX than the prior-year quarter despite a 43% drop in both oil and natural gas prices during the year. The peer group, on average, generated $100 million less in EBITDAX compared to the prior-year quarter, or 31% lower on average.

如果你看第 11 張投影片，標題為 Antero EBITDAX 優於同業表現，你可以看到 Antero 第四季 EBITDAX 為 3.08 億美元，因為我們達成每 Mcfe 2.03 美元的 EBITDAX 利潤率。如頁面上半部所示，本季我們的 EBITDAX 約比最接近的同業高出 6,000 萬美元；儘管全年油價與天然氣價格均下跌 43%，我們的 EBITDAX 也僅較去年同期少 7%。同業平均而言，EBITDAX 較去年同期少 1 億美元，或平均下降 31%。

Pointing to the bottom half of that page, over the last five quarters, we have consistently achieved peer-leading EBITDAX margins among our peer group. We outperformed the average peer group EBITDAX margin by 26% in the fourth quarter. We expect our leadership at outperformance in Appalachia to strengthen over time.

再看該頁下半部，在過去五個季度中，我們在同業群中持續達成領先同業的 EBITDAX 利潤率。第四季我們的 EBITDAX 利潤率較同業平均高出 26%。我們預期我們在阿帕拉契亞地區的領先與優異表現將隨時間進一步強化。

In summary, we had an outstanding 2015 development program that resulted in peer-leading growth in production with some of the lowest development costs in the industry at highest realized pricing and margins among our peers. Even though we reduced the budget by 23% versus last year, we remain the most active operator in Appalachia and have what we believe is the most fully integrated business model in the region through our attractive firm-transport portfolio, our midstream focus, our significant hedge book and our tremendous inventory of drilling locations in two of the lowest cost shale plays in North America.

總結而言，我們在 2015 年的開發計畫表現出色，在同業中以部分最低的開發成本，實現了領先同業的產量成長，並在同業間取得最高的實現價格與利潤率。即使相較去年我們將預算下調 23%，我們仍是阿帕拉契亞最活躍的營運商，並且我們相信，憑藉具吸引力的固定運輸組合、我們對中游的聚焦、可觀的避險部位，以及在北美兩個最低成本頁岩區塊中龐大的鑽井位置庫存，我們擁有該區域最完整的一體化商業模式。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我把電話交給接線員進行提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Holly Stewart, Scotia Howard Weil.

Holly Stewart，Scotia Howard Weil。

Good morning, gentlemen.

早安，各位先生。

Good morning, Holly.

早安，Holly。

First question maybe for Glen, just the balance sheet and financing has been such a relevant topic in this commodity environment. You've outlined the budget. It looks like you'll have a bit of an outspend but obviously, ample capacity on the revolver to handle it. But there is some funds drawn. So any thoughts on other ways of financing for this year?

第一個問題可能給 Glen。在這樣的商品價格環境下，資產負債表與融資一直是非常重要的議題。你們已經說明了預算。看起來你們會有一些超支，但顯然循環信貸（revolver）還有充足額度可以因應。不過目前也已經動用了一些資金。所以對於今年是否有其他融資方式，有什麼想法嗎？

Holly, we don't have any plans to issue equity in the near term. I think the exception to that would be if we do participate in some of the consolidation that we think will happen in the Appalachian basin over the course of the year. That would be the exception where we may consider issuing equity, but otherwise, we just plan to draw on the revolver for the time being.

Holly，我們短期內沒有發行股權的計畫。我想唯一的例外是，如果我們參與我們認為今年在阿帕拉契亞盆地可能發生的一些整併。那會是我們可能考慮發行股權的例外情況；除此之外，我們目前的計畫就是暫時先動用循環信貸。

Okay, great. And then maybe more of a topical for today with the announcement of Mariner East II being delayed, you began recovering some methane this quarter. Any thoughts or shifts in strategy with that pipeline being pushed out?

好的，很好。另外，今天比較即時的議題是 Mariner East II 宣布延後；你們本季開始回收一些甲烷。隨著這條管線時程往後推，你們在策略上有任何想法或調整嗎？

Holly, I think -- we are supporters of Mariner East of course, and see that project is going to be strategic for us. I think we will continue to just maximize our net backs within the pool.

Holly，我想——我們當然支持 Mariner East，也認為該專案對我們具有策略性。我想我們會持續在該市場池（pool）內把淨回收（netbacks）最大化。

We are considering some alternative projects as well to also move our NGLs to export markets. So we'll keep those in mind. But it's really stay in the Appalachian pool as well as transport out of the pool to maximize net returns to different destinations, whether it's Midwest or towards the Gulf.

我們也在評估一些替代專案，以便將我們的 NGLs 運往出口市場。所以我們會把這些選項納入考量。但核心仍是留在阿帕拉契亞市場池內，以及把產品運出市場池，以在不同目的地最大化淨回報，不論是中西部或是往墨西哥灣沿岸。

Great. And maybe last one for me, Glen, any thoughts around the upcoming borrowing base redetermination period?

很好。我最後一個問題，Glen，對即將到來的借款基礎（borrowing base）重新決定期間有什麼看法？

We are quite positive on that. You know as in quarters gone by, given the hedge book that we continue to add to in the out years and the pricing relative to the bank price deck, in addition to the PDPs that we add each quarter, we foresee a positive outlook there on the borrowing base.

我們對此相當正面。你知道，和過去幾季一樣，考量到我們持續在更遠期增加的避險部位、相對於銀行價格曲線（bank price deck）的定價，以及我們每季新增的 PDP（已開發已生產）儲量，我們預期借款基礎會有正向展望。

We'd expect to see actually an increase in the borrowing base in the spring determination for us. I don't think we'll ask for additional lender commitments but the borrowing base may go up. So we feel pretty good about that spring season for us.

我們預期在春季重新決定時，我們的借款基礎實際上會增加。我不認為我們會要求額外的貸方承諾額度，但借款基礎可能會上調。所以我們對今年春季的情況感覺相當不錯。

Okay, great. Thanks, guys.

好的，很好。謝謝各位。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram，JPMorgan。

Good morning, I wanted to ask you about the debate that's been brewing in earnings season regarding the appropriate well spacing in the Utica to get the optimal drainage. I was wondering where you stand and perhaps if you could comment on that?

早安。我想請教在財報季期間一直在討論的議題：在 Utica 地區，為了達到最佳排採（drainage），適當的井距應該是多少。我想知道你們的立場，以及是否可以對此評論？

Where we stand we have done pilots on 750 foot, 1,000 foot and even 500 foot interlateral distance. We see that as long as we're drilling the wells at the same time, that 750s worked quite well.

就我們的立場而言，我們做過 750 英尺、1,000 英尺，甚至 500 英尺的水平井間距（interlateral distance）試驗。我們看到只要同時鑽井，750 英尺的配置效果相當好。

I will say in the Utica, all of our reserve bookings are more conservative. They are all on 1,000 foot interlateral. So we continue to watch, but right now, our economics would say 750s work as well as 1,000s, and in a PV world, they are as good, if not a little bit stronger. We will continue to watch that.

我會說，在 Utica，我們所有的儲量入帳（reserve bookings）都更為保守。它們全部是以 1,000 英尺的水平井間距為基礎。因此我們會持續觀察，但就目前而言，我們的經濟性顯示 750 英尺與 1,000 英尺一樣可行；在 PV（現值）角度，它們同樣好，甚至可能略強一些。我們會持續觀察。

But your inventory is on a 1,000 foot basis?

但你們的庫存是以 1,000 英尺為基礎？

That's right.

沒錯。

Okay. My follow-up question on the marketing expense, it picked up in Q4 but you highlighted how that should trend down as we think about 2016. I was wondering about your longer-term thoughts regarding marketing expense in an environment where takeaway should get better from an industry perspective and the industry is slowing down as a whole? How do you think that should trend over the next couple years?

好的。我的追問是關於行銷費用（marketing expense）。第四季有所上升，但你們也提到在 2016 年應該會呈下降趨勢。我想請教你們對較長期行銷費用的看法：在產業角度外運能力（takeaway）應該會改善、且整體產業活動放緩的環境下，你們認為未來幾年這項費用會如何走勢？

There is still positive spreads if you look at the futures market. There's plenty of spread there over the next few years to capture in terms of mitigating our marketing expense, which we've been doing in the past and continue to do. So we feel good about that.

如果你看期貨市場，仍然存在正向價差（spreads）。未來幾年仍有相當多的價差可供掌握，用以降低我們的行銷費用；我們過去一直在做，未來也會持續。所以我們對此感覺良好。

I agree the trend is to flatten out a bit in terms of supply. But some pikes, I think, will get delayed as well. So it's a very dynamic equation.

我同意供給面趨勢是會稍微趨於平坦。但我認為有些管線（pipes）也會延後。所以這是一個非常動態的方程式。

We, due to our hedge position, can continue to grow pretty rapidly. So we will fill up our capacity over time. It does go away for us at some point. It's not a real long-term issue in terms of meeting spreads for five years, 10 years out there. It's really just the next few years and that looks pretty good right now.

我們因為有避險部位，仍然可以持續相當快速地成長。因此我們會隨著時間逐步把產能填滿。對我們而言，這個情況在某個時間點會消失。就未來五年、十年在那邊的價差能否達標而言，這並不是一個真正的長期問題。這其實只是接下來幾年的問題，而目前看起來相當不錯。

Okay, my final question, maybe some of your thoughts on the gas macro? We did see a smaller draw today than expected. But I wondered if you could comment on your views? Obviously, you've seen a real sharp pullback in activity in the Appalachian Basin. There are a lot of DUCs. But maybe your views on gas over the next 12 months to 18 months?

好的，我最後一個問題，想請教你們對天然氣總體面的看法？我們今天確實看到庫存提取量比預期小。但我想知道你是否能評論一下你們的觀點？顯然，你們已經看到阿帕拉契亞盆地的活動大幅回落。有很多 DUC。但你們對未來 12 到 18 個月的天然氣看法如何？

Of course, we, like the rest of the industry, are watching those variables. We follow, of course, rig count and local production, as well as nationwide production. But I do think one of those variables that a lot of people struggle with because it's a bit of an unknown is how many DUCs and what are the company's plans in completing those DUCs? That's a little bit of the X factor, the variable, that's hard to fill in.

當然，我們和產業其他公司一樣，都在關注這些變數。我們當然會追蹤鑽機數以及本地產量，也會看全國產量。但我確實認為，有一個變數很多人很難掌握，因為它有點未知：到底有多少 DUC，以及公司對完成這些 DUC 的計畫是什麼？這有點像 X 因子，是一個很難補齊的變數。

We do see very dramatic drop-off in rig activity in Appalachia and so we're all watching for the rollover and the flattening, if not the decline. So those are our views. Watching it carefully and there is still going to be more production than we'd all like in the near-term, but over time, it will work itself out.

我們確實看到阿帕拉契亞的鑽機活動非常戲劇性地下滑，因此我們都在觀察產量是否會見頂回落並趨於平坦，甚至下滑。所以這就是我們的看法。我們會密切關注；短期內產量仍會比大家希望的更多，但隨著時間推移，市場會自行調整。

It's definitely just as across the world, the weaker countries are going to fall back on oil and gas production, particularly oil, just because of the projects don't cut it at these prices. I think you see the same thing in microcosm in North America that we can all see the rigs dropping preferentially in the weakest plays. So it will be where the lowest cost structure is that the activity can continue and that's where we are.

這確實就像全球各地一樣，較弱的國家會回頭依賴油氣生產，尤其是原油，因為在這樣的價格下，專案撐不住。我想你在北美也能看到同樣的縮影：鑽機會優先從最弱的區塊撤出。因此，活動會持續發生在成本結構最低的地方，而那就是我們所在的位置。

Okay, thanks. Very helpful. Thanks.

好的，謝謝。非常有幫助。謝謝。

James Sullivan, Alembic Global Advisors.

James Sullivan，Alembic Global Advisors。

Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I had a quick one. I just want to go to the FT here and I recognize that this is your FTPs on your general corporate presentation on page 37 is a graphical one.

嗨，早安，各位。謝謝讓我提問。我有個簡短的問題。我想談一下這裡的 FT，我知道你們在一般公司簡報第 37 頁呈現的是你們的 FTP，以圖表方式呈現。

But I think it's a piece of the A&R that comes out of service or comes out of your FT stack partway through 2016. Can you give me a little color on that and when it comes back in in 2017, is it the same demand charge on that piece of pipe?

但我認為這是 A&R 的一部分，會在 2016 年中從服務中退出，或是從你們的 FT 組合中在 2016 年中途退出。你能否多提供一些背景？以及 2017 年回來時，那段管線的需求費（demand charge）是否相同？

Part of our agreement with Energy Transfer as we signed on to the Rover project was that Energy Transfer takes over the A&R piece beginning July 1 and holds it until Rover is complete to our Seneca location. So we project that to be about a year.

我們與 Energy Transfer 的協議之一是：當我們簽署加入 Rover 專案時，Energy Transfer 自 7 月 1 日起接手 A&R 的那一段，並持有到 Rover 完工並連到我們的 Seneca 位置為止。因此我們預估大約是一年。

As we see it now, the tariff will remain the same when we take back the A&R capacity. There is an A&R rate case out there and so we will see how that is worked out to possibly increase the tariff by a little bit.

就我們目前的理解，當我們收回 A&R 的運輸容量時，費率（tariff）將維持不變。外面也有一個 A&R 的費率案件（rate case），因此我們會看最後如何處理，可能會讓費率小幅上調。

We do see right now the spreads are not there on the A&R South piece, very strong spreads on A&R North to Chicago and Mich-Con, but to the South, the spreads aren't there. The question will be, what will it look like in a couple of years? What will flood that area with gas in the Midwest that will need to get to the Gulf?

我們目前看到 A&R South 那一段的價差並不存在；A&R North 往芝加哥與 Mich-Con 的價差非常強，但往南的價差不在。問題在於，兩三年後會是什麼樣子？中西部會有什麼因素讓大量天然氣湧入，並需要運到墨西哥灣？

It will be the Rex new capacity that drops off in places like Shelbyville, it will be the Rover capacity that drops off gas at Defiance and it will be the lack of pipe that goes into Chicago. So we could see that there can be a pretty strong buildup of gas in the Midwest that will need to find its way to the South. So we project that those spreads could go positive on A&R within the next year or two.

那會是 Rex 新增的運輸容量在 Shelbyville 之類的地點下線（drop off），也會是 Rover 的運輸容量在 Defiance 下線供氣，以及進入芝加哥的管線不足。因此我們可能會看到中西部天然氣出現相當強的累積，並需要找到往南運輸的出路。所以我們預期，A&R 的價差在未來一到兩年內可能轉為正值。

Okay, great. Thank you. That's a lot of great color and also thank you guys on the incremental FT and marketing disclosure. That was really very helpful.

好的，很棒。謝謝。這些補充資訊非常有幫助，也謝謝你們在增量 FT 與行銷揭露方面的資訊。那真的很有幫助。

The second question I had was, you guys have talked in your prepared remarks and I think you'd even talked about it in the budget disclosure, or the budget release a week ago or so, about expiring drilling and completion crews. If you compare the rates you guys are paying, which are obviously longer-term contracted rate, legacy rates. You compare them to today's rates, there is something like, I think it was 10% or 12% of potential cost savings that you guys could capture and that was going into 2017.

我的第二個問題是，你們在事先準備的發言中提到，我想你們甚至在一週左右前的預算揭露或預算發布中也提到，鑽井與完井隊伍的合約即將到期。如果把你們目前支付的費率（顯然是較長期合約、歷史費率）與今天的費率相比，大概有像是 10% 或 12% 的潛在成本節省可以取得，而那會進入 2017 年。

Is there any appetite on your part or have you thought about approaching them and trading term for a little bit closer to market pricing, which would basically just be to accelerate marking to market your service rates?

你們是否有意願，或是否想過去找他們談，用延長合約期限來換取更接近市場的定價，基本上就是加速把你們的服務費率按市價重估（mark-to-market）？

Yes, there is definitely those kind of discussions that are underway.

是的，這類討論確實正在進行中。

Okay, great. And if I could squeeze one more in here? The Mariner East delay notwithstanding, I know you guys obviously have the option on the Mariner East for the propane butane to take yourselves up to 112 Mboe a day. But can you comment at all on your interest in a capacity expansion, the East II expansion that's been bandied about?

好的，很棒。如果我可以再塞一個問題？撇開 Mariner East 延遲不談，我知道你們顯然在 Mariner East 上對丙烷、丁烷有選擇權，可以把你們提升到每日 112 Mboe。但你能否談談你們對擴充運能、也就是外界一直在談的 East II 擴建的興趣？

Have you guys looked at that? What's your take on it and what's your sense of the risk of putting too much uncontracted US light fees into the European petchem market? Is there any sense in which the market has its own decelerators in terms of demand, things like coproduct production and whatever that might retard demand for US imports -- imports coming from the US?

你們有研究過嗎？你們怎麼看？以及你們對於把太多未簽約的美國輕質 NGL（fees）投放到歐洲石化市場的風險，有什麼感受？市場在需求面是否存在某些自我減速器，例如共產品（coproduct）產量等因素，可能會抑制對美國進口的需求——也就是來自美國的進口？

Those are certainly good questions and good considerations. As you are aware, we do have the right to double or there are increments that don't lead up to quite a doubling of 50,000 barrels a day on Mariner East. But certainly, there is available capacity or there would be available capacity on Mariner East.

這些確實都是好問題，也都是很好的考量。如你所知，我們確實有權把 Mariner East 的運能加倍，或是以若干增量方式增加，雖然不完全到加倍，但可增加到每日 50,000 桶的增量。但可以確定的是，Mariner East 上有可用運能，或將會有可用運能。

And so, I think discussions are underway and one can incrementalize, one can do shorter-term deals, one can do interruptible. So there's a lot of flexibility there.

因此，我認為相關討論正在進行中；你可以做增量化安排，可以做較短期的交易，也可以做可中斷（interruptible）的合約。所以那裡有很大的彈性。

We're looking at the Arb of course, we watch it all the time on the Arb to Northwest Europe and Far East. And those have been positive lately. And you followed the shipping costs and how that's going down dramatically.

我們當然在看套利（Arb），我們一直都在關注到西北歐與遠東的套利。而最近那些套利是正的。你也有追蹤運費成本，以及它如何大幅下降。

So we do see the potential there, but you are right, there can be dynamics, there can be upsets in the world markets where for some period of time, whether it's months out of a year that that can go negative. So we're definitely cognizant of that and we will be keeping that in mind as we consider whether to enter into more firm commitments or do it on a more interruptible basis.

所以我們確實看到那裡的潛力，但你說得對，市場可能出現動態變化，全球市場也可能出現擾動，導致在某段期間（不論是幾個月或一年中的一段時間）套利轉為負值。因此我們確實意識到這點，並會在考慮是否要承擔更多固定承諾，或以較可中斷的方式來做時，把這點納入考量。

Okay, guys. Thanks very much for the complete answers. I appreciate it.

好的，各位。非常感謝你們完整的回答。我很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeoffrey Lambujon, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

Jeoffrey Lambujon，Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

Thanks, good morning. First, just a few follow-ups on some of the earlier questions. On Mariner East II, can you talk more about the alternatives that you are assessing given the industry shift, the dry gas drilling and really the significant drop-off overall by the industry, as you mentioned? Just curious about what the opportunity set looks like and how you see that changing in the near-term?

謝謝，早安。首先，針對先前一些問題再追問幾點。關於 Mariner East II，鑑於你們提到的產業轉向、乾氣鑽探，以及整體產業活動顯著下滑，你們能否多談談正在評估的替代方案？我只是好奇機會集合看起來如何，以及你們認為短期內會如何變化？

I think those are still confidential projects that are going in different directions. So there's a host of operators that are sponsoring those going pretty much in most compass directions out of Appalachia.

我認為那些仍屬於機密專案，且正朝不同方向推進。因此，有許多營運商在贊助這些專案，基本上是從阿帕拉契亞往各個方向延伸。

So we have discussions underway. They look like valid projects, but until the operators themselves or the project developers announce it, we'll keep it confidential.

所以我們正在進行討論。它們看起來是可行的專案，但在營運商本身或專案開發商對外宣布之前，我們會先保密。

Fair enough. And then one more clarification on the spacing comments from earlier. Is that -- the 750 foot that you feel comfortable with, is that more respective to the wet gas window? I know you're early in your days for the dry gas drilling, but wondering if that is meant to apply across the portfolio or again, more specific to wet gas?

了解。另外再釐清一下你先前提到的井距評論。你們覺得可接受的 750 英尺，是比較針對濕氣區間嗎？我知道你們在乾氣鑽探還在早期階段，但想確認這是否適用於整個資產組合，或是仍較偏向濕氣？

I'd say where we've done most of our drilling is right on that transition, so that's where we've seen our results that my comments are on is in the 1,150 to 1,250 range. So not in the deeply rich, rich gas. Those would be the comments there.

我會說我們大部分的鑽探都在那個過渡帶附近，所以我評論所依據的結果，是在 1,150 到 1,250 的範圍。也就是不在非常富含液體的富氣區。我的評論主要是針對那裡。

And I'm looking on the map right here. Yes, that's about the right BTU range, 1,150 to even 1,225, so there we certainly run our economics and our returns and 750 foot works well for us. There are trade-offs, but that's what we see as the best answer at this point.

我現在就在看地圖。是的，那大概就是正確的 BTU 範圍，1,150 甚至到 1,225，所以在那裡我們確實會跑經濟性與報酬分析，而 750 英尺對我們很有效。當然有取捨，但就目前而言，我們認為這是最佳答案。

We haven't gone as far down dip in Ohio as many of the other operators, so whether 750 foot or 1,000 foot is appropriate as you go further east, not sure. We'll have to judge for ourselves.

我們在俄亥俄往下傾方向（down dip）推進得沒有其他許多營運商那麼遠，所以當你往更東邊走時，750 英尺或 1,000 英尺是否合適，我不確定。我們得自己判斷。

But we are booked on 1,000 foot interlateral in terms of our QP.

但就我們的 QP 而言，我們是以 1,000 英尺的層間井距（interlateral）來規劃。

Right.

對。

Understood. And one last one for me on Rover. Obviously another pipe that the industry continues to focus on. Just given the financial distress in the Northeast right now, how do you think about that capacity and the buildout on the timing going forward? And for you guys specifically, do you see some benefits of that potentially sliding to the right further just given your portfolio of ample capacity on other lines?

了解。我最後一個問題是關於 Rover。顯然這也是產業持續關注的另一條管線。考量到目前東北地區的財務困境，你們如何看待該運能與後續建設擴張的時程？就你們公司而言，鑑於你們在其他管線上已有充足運能，如果時程可能再往後延，是否反而會帶來一些好處？

Rover, right now, we project it to come to be operational to Seneca in the Utica by mid-2017. And so far, they are on track for that. As you may be aware, the draft EIS was issued the other day, so as you step forward with the expected waiting periods between now and when construction could begin in the fall, it seems to still be on track operationally where it could happen by mid-2017.

就 Rover 而言，我們目前預估它將在 2017 年年中前後，於尤提卡（Utica）的 Seneca 端投入營運。到目前為止，他們仍按計畫推進。你可能也知道，前幾天已發布 EIS 草案，因此，考量從現在到秋季可能開始施工之間的預期等待期，看起來在營運時程上仍可望維持在 2017 年年中左右。

First of all, what if it doesn't? What if it's delayed? Then we'd have a lot of flexibility to shift capital more preferentially over to the Marcellus. We have some good takeaway projects there that we can take advantage of. So we have good flexibility there.

首先，如果沒有呢？如果延遲了呢？那我們就有很大的彈性，可以把資本更優先地轉向馬塞勒斯（Marcellus）。我們在那裡有一些很好的外運（takeaway）專案可以利用。所以我們在那方面有很好的彈性。

Then, as far as delays and whether it can help some folks, it's possible. We still have plans to fill that Rover capacity ourselves pretty quickly out of the Utica once it becomes operational. Within the first year, we'll have filled up our Rover capacity.

再者，至於延遲是否能幫到某些人，是有可能的。一旦 Rover 投入營運，我們仍計畫很快就用尤提卡的產量把我們在 Rover 的運能填滿。在第一年內，我們就會把我們的 Rover 運能用滿。

It can bode well if there is more open space that could be discounted by others for us to go beyond our contracted capacity. So it could be an advantage for us longer-term.

如果有更多可用空間，且其他人可能以折價方式釋出，讓我們能超出已簽約的運能，那對我們可能是利多。因此，長期來看可能會成為我們的優勢。

Thanks for the detail.

謝謝你提供這些細節。

Kevin MacCurdy, Heikkinen Energy.

Kevin MacCurdy，Heikkinen Energy。

Hey, guys. Given the lower level of completions in 2016, will you run into any minimum volume commitments from the water business?

嗨，各位。鑑於 2016 年完井（completions）水準較低，你們的水務業務會遇到任何最低量承諾（minimum volume commitments）嗎？

Yes, we will likely have some MBC payments and I believe in the $10 million to $15 million range for this year is the forecast. So it's not terribly material.

會的，我們今年很可能會有一些 MBC 付款，預估大約在 1,000 萬到 1,500 萬美元的區間。所以影響不算太大。

Okay. And just one more. Does your 2016 land budget include any additional acreage or is that just to maintain current acreage?

好的。再一個問題。你們 2016 年的土地預算是否包含額外增購的面積，還是只是用來維持現有面積？

It's additional acreage. We picked up 29,000 net acres this last year and we expect to be continuing our success in base leasing through our trend. It's both infill and extension, so that's what the dollars are targeted towards.

是包含額外面積。去年我們新增了 29,000 淨英畝（net acres），而且我們預期會在我們的趨勢帶上持續成功地進行基礎租賃（base leasing）。同時包含加密（infill）與延伸（extension），所以這些資金就是針對這些目標。

Okay. Thanks, guys.

好的。謝謝各位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Chad Green for any closing remarks.

各位女士先生，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Chad Green 先生，請他做結語。

Thanks for participating on our conference call today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us. Thanks, again.

感謝各位今天參與我們的電話會議。如果你有任何進一步問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯絡。再次感謝。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以掛斷電話。