Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Antero Resources Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2019 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce our host, Michael Kennedy, Senior Vice President of Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很榮幸介紹我們的主持人：財務資深副總裁 Michael Kennedy。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Thank you for joining us for Antero's Second Quarter 2019 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

感謝各位參加 Antero 2019 年第二季投資人電話會議。我們將先用幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，接著開放問答。

I'd also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中一併檢視。

Before we start our comments, I'd like to first remind you that during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在開始發言之前，我想先提醒各位，本次電話會議中 Antero 管理團隊將提出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。實際結果與成果可能與此類陳述所表達、暗示或預測者有重大差異。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measure.

今天的電話會議也可能包含若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。關於此類指標的重要揭露（包括與最可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節），請參閱我們的財報新聞稿。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：董事長暨執行長 Paul Rady，以及總裁暨財務長 Glen Warren。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

我現在把電話交給 Paul。

Thanks, Mike. Thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to spend some time talking about our long-term strategy and focus on our recently announced well costs and operating cost-savings initiatives. I'll provide detail on savings we've achieved to date and highlight the key items that will reduce cost further towards our target. Glen will then highlight our second quarter financial achievements, including the premium NGL price realizations following our first full quarter with Mariner East 2 in-service. He will conclude by discussing our expanded hedge position through 2022 and our capital spending outlook.

謝謝你，Mike。也謝謝各位今天收聽本次電話會議。在我的發言中，我會花一些時間談談我們的長期策略，並聚焦於我們近期宣布的單井成本與營運成本節省措施。我將提供截至目前已達成的節省細節，並強調將進一步把成本降低至目標水準的關鍵項目。接著 Glen 會重點說明我們第二季的財務成果，包括在 Mariner East 2 全季投運後，我們 NGL（天然氣液）實現的溢價價格。他最後將討論我們延伸至 2022 年的擴大避險部位，以及資本支出展望。

I'd like to start by discussing our long-term strategy. We remain focused on maximizing our ability to generate free cash flow on a sustained basis. As we look at our 5-year development plan today, the best way to deliver maximum free cash flow on a sustainable basis is to grow production in the near term to fill our firm transportation commitments, while we have attractive natural gas prices -- natural gas hedges in place.

我想先從我們的長期策略談起。我們仍專注於在可持續的基礎上，最大化我們創造自由現金流的能力。就我們目前的 5 年開發計畫而言，要以可持續方式交付最大自由現金流，最佳作法是在短期內提高產量以滿足我們的固定運輸承諾，同時在我們擁有具吸引力的天然氣價格——亦即已建立天然氣避險——的情況下進行。

At current commodity strip prices, we forecast funding this growth primarily through cash flow from operations and the water earn-out payments of $125 million expected in Cal-20. This allows us to preserve our strong balance sheet.

以目前商品期貨曲線（strip）價格來看，我們預期此一成長主要將透過營運現金流，以及預計於 Cal-20 收到的 1.25 億美元水務或有對價（earn-out）款項來支應。這使我們得以維持強健的資產負債表。

Once we grow into our firm transport and essentially eliminate net marketing expense in 2022, we are well positioned to be more flexible with our development plan and generate significant free cash flow. To provide some context, if we elect to just maintain year-end 2021 forecast production of approximately 4 Bcf equivalent per day, the capital required to do so would be less than $900 million. This would result in our ability to generate free cash flow of over $400 million in Cal-22 even at today's commodity strip prices or over a 30% free cash flow yield.

一旦我們的產量成長至足以承接固定運輸量，並在 2022 年基本消除淨行銷費用後，我們將更有條件在開發計畫上保持彈性並創造可觀的自由現金流。提供一些背景說明：若我們選擇僅維持 2021 年底預測產量約每日 40 億立方英尺當量（4 Bcf equivalent per day），所需資本將低於 9 億美元。即使在今日的商品期貨曲線價格下，這也將使我們在 Cal-22 具備創造超過 4 億美元自由現金流的能力，或超過 30% 的自由現金流殖利率。

As opposed to downshifting to maintenance CapEx today and delivering 1 year of free cash flow with unfilled pipeline commitments remaining, our strategy positions us to deliver long-term sustained free cash flow generation.

相較於現在就降檔至維持性資本支出（maintenance CapEx），在仍有未填滿的管線承諾下僅交付 1 年自由現金流，我們的策略使我們能夠交付長期且可持續的自由現金流創造。

Now let's turn to our well cost-savings initiatives. Regardless of commodity price cycles, we remain committed to maximizing value. Over the last several quarters, we undertook an internal review of every expense associated with our well costs with the goal of materially reducing cost to maximize returns.

接下來談談我們的單井成本節省措施。不論商品價格循環如何，我們仍致力於最大化價值。在過去幾個季度，我們對與單井成本相關的每一項費用進行內部檢視，目標是大幅降低成本以最大化報酬。

Let's turn to Slide #3 titled Targeted Marcellus Well Cost Reductions. Please note that all these numbers assume a lateral length of 12,000 feet. We are targeting a reduction in well cost of 10% to 14% on a per lateral foot basis or approximately $1.2 million to $1.7 million per well by 2020 compared to our 2019 budgeted cost. On a dollar per foot basis, this translates into a reduction from 2019 budgeted costs of $0.97 million per thousand feet to a target of $0.83 million to $0.87 million per thousand feet. This is expected to be reached by the beginning of Cal-20.

請看第 3 張投影片，標題為「目標化的 Marcellus 單井成本降低」。請注意，所有數字皆假設水平段長度為 12,000 英尺。相較於我們 2019 年預算成本，我們目標在 2020 年以前按每水平段英尺（per lateral foot）基礎將單井成本降低 10% 至 14%，約每口井降低 120 萬至 170 萬美元。以每英尺美元計，這相當於從 2019 年預算的每 1,000 英尺 0.97 百萬美元，降至目標每 1,000 英尺 0.83 百萬至 0.87 百萬美元。預期在 Cal-20 初即可達成。

These savings have come or will come from a combination of water-savings initiatives, service cost deflation and continued efficiency gains. Meeting our target will position us at the low end of the cost curve among our Appalachian peer group.

這些節省已經或將會來自多項因素的組合，包括節水措施、服務成本通縮，以及持續的效率提升。達成目標將使我們在阿帕拉契亞同業中位於成本曲線的低端。

Now let's take a step back and talk about what we've already achieved to date. Following the waterfall on the page, we begin with our January '19 well cost at $0.97 million per thousand feet that was assumed in our budget. During the first half of the year, we've already achieved savings of approximately $500,000 per well, which brings us to our current AFE with second half 2019 well costs estimated at $0.93 million per thousand feet. This progress was the driver behind lowering our 2019 CapEx guidance back in May without any change to our planned activity.

現在讓我們退一步，談談截至目前我們已經達成的成果。依照頁面上的瀑布圖，我們從 2019 年 1 月的單井成本開始，當時預算假設為每 1,000 英尺 0.97 百萬美元。在上半年期間，我們已達成約每口井 50 萬美元的節省，使我們目前的 AFE（授權支出）在 2019 年下半年估計單井成本為每 1,000 英尺 0.93 百萬美元。這項進展是我們在 5 月下調 2019 年資本支出（CapEx）指引的主因，而我們的計畫活動並未改變。

We're very proud of our team's ability to deliver on this target significantly ahead of schedule. This achievement reflects both continued operational efficiency gains and service cost deflation that was realized during the first half of 2019. From our current AFE of $0.93 million per thousand feet lateral, we expect well cost to decline further to the range of $0.83 million to $0.87 million per thousand feet by Cal-20. These additional savings are expected to come primarily from our water-savings initiatives, both on enhanced flowback water management and completion optimization.

我們對團隊能夠大幅提前達成此目標感到非常自豪。此一成果反映了持續的營運效率提升，以及 2019 年上半年實現的服務成本通縮。從目前每 1,000 英尺水平段 0.93 百萬美元的 AFE 水準，我們預期到 Cal-20 單井成本將進一步下降至每 1,000 英尺 0.83 百萬至 0.87 百萬美元的區間。這些額外節省預期主要來自我們的節水措施，包括強化返排水（flowback water）管理與完井最佳化。

Now let's take a closer look at our major components of our well-cost savings. We talked about the timing of well-cost savings, but I wanted to provide a breakdown of the magnitude of each category.

接著我們更仔細看看單井成本節省的主要構成。我們已談到單井成本節省的時程，但我想進一步提供各類別節省幅度的拆解。

On Slide #4 titled Cost Reduction Initiatives Breakdown, you can see the breakdown by category, assuming the midpoint of our targeted well cost reductions of $1.2 million to $1.7 million. We are targeting approximately $800,000 per well in well cost reductions for more efficient flowback and produced water management as well as optimized completion design.

在第 4 張投影片「成本降低措施拆解」中，您可以看到按類別的拆解，假設我們目標單井成本降低 120 萬至 170 萬美元的中位數。我們目標約每口井降低 80 萬美元的單井成本，來源包括更有效率的返排與產出水（produced water）管理，以及最佳化的完井設計。

On the flowback and produced water side, we expect to reduce cost through the combination of; first, polishing and blending the water to reuse in completions; secondly, repurposing portions of our existing freshwater system to transport the water; and three, constructing additional water pipeline infrastructure. Historically, we've used third-party trucking companies to transport our flowback and produced water at a cost of between $6 and $9 per barrel. Over the last 12 months, we have paid nearly $160 million to third-party trucking companies.

在返排與產出水方面，我們預期透過以下組合來降低成本：第一，對水進行精處理（polishing）與混配（blending），以便在完井作業中再利用；第二，將我們既有淡水系統的部分設施改作輸水用途；第三，建置更多輸水管線基礎設施。過去我們使用第三方卡車運輸公司來運送返排與產出水，成本約為每桶 6 至 9 美元。在過去 12 個月中，我們已向第三方卡車運輸公司支付近 1.6 億美元。

This situation provides Antero with a significant opportunity for improvement and for material savings on a per barrel basis, while also expanding the scope of the flowback and produced water services business for Antero Midstream.

此情況為 Antero 帶來顯著的改善機會，並可在每桶基礎上實現可觀的實質節省，同時也擴大 Antero Midstream 的返排水與產出水服務業務範疇。

On the water used for completions, earlier this year, we began performing pilots across our acreage to test and analyze the optimal completion design to maximize returns. After successful pilots using mostly 100-mesh proppant, we now plan to reduce water used in completions from a range of 40 to 45 barrels per foot down to 35 to 38 barrels per foot in a new cost-efficient completion design. The completion design optimizes both fracture length, driven by water usage and reservoir conductivity which is driven by the type and amount of proppant in the most cost-effective manner. We've not seen any evidence of degradation in either production or EURs in all of our piloting and we do not expect it going forward.

就完井用水而言，今年稍早我們已在自有區塊範圍內展開試點，以測試並分析可使報酬最大化的最佳完井設計。在以多數採用 100 目支撐劑的試點成功後，我們目前規劃在新的具成本效益的完井設計下，將完井用水量由每英尺 40 至 45 桶的區間，降低至每英尺 35 至 38 桶。該完井設計以最具成本效益的方式，同時最佳化裂縫長度（由用水量驅動）以及儲層導流能力（由支撐劑的種類與用量驅動）。在所有試點中，我們未見產量或 EUR（最終可採儲量）有任何劣化跡象，且預期未來亦不會發生。

The second component of our well cost-savings initiative is service cost deflation and efficiency gains. An often overlooked byproduct of lower commodity prices and reduced industry activity is a deflationary service cost environment. Service cost go down. This is especially true in the Appalachian Basin where producers have lowered capital programs, while also continuing to realize efficiency improvements.

我們井成本節省計畫的第二個組成部分是服務成本通縮與效率提升。大宗商品價格下跌與產業活動減少常被忽略的一個副產品，是服務成本的通縮環境。服務成本會下降。在阿帕拉契亞盆地尤其如此，因為生產商下調資本計畫，同時也持續實現效率改善。

Given that Antero has remained one of the more resilient producers in the basin through all cycles, we've maintained excellent relationships with our vendors. In early 2019, we began working with our vendor partners to find areas to reduce expenses. The result of these extensive conversations was a meaningful reduction in total vendor cost. Further savings will come from last-mile sand-sourcing logistics and an additional sand contract that was recently finalized with a premier sand supplier.

鑑於 Antero 在盆地內歷經各個循環仍屬較具韌性的生產商之一，我們與供應商維持了極佳的關係。2019 年初，我們開始與供應商夥伴合作，尋找降低費用的領域。這些深入對話的結果，是供應商總成本出現顯著下降。進一步的節省將來自末端運輸的砂源採購物流，以及近期與一家頂級砂供應商敲定的額外砂供應合約。

On the efficiency gains, as we have highlighted during many of our earnings calls, our team's operational efficiency gains continue to surpass expectations. Slide #5, titled Marcellus Drilling and Completion Efficiencies, highlights the many advancements that we achieved during the second quarter of 2019. During the quarter, we averaged 5,470 feet of lateral drilled per day. It's approximately 1 mile, a little over a mile every single day, 20% improvement from our 2018 average.

在效率提升方面，正如我們在多次法說會中強調的，我們團隊的營運效率提升持續超出預期。第 5 張投影片，標題為「Marcellus 鑽井與完井效率」，重點呈現我們在 2019 年第二季達成的多項進展。本季我們平均每日鑽進 5,470 英尺的水平段。約為 1 英里、每天略超過 1 英里，較 2018 年平均提升 20%。

In addition, we achieved what we believe is a world record, again, by drilling a total of 9,650 feet of lateral in 1 day, which we're extremely proud of. Completion stages per day averaged 5.7 stages per day, an increase from the 5.2 stages per day average in 2018. We continue to drill longer laterals. During the quarter, we were able to drill our longest Marcellus lateral ever at 16,279 feet sideways. These efficiency gains, combined with service cost deflation, are expected to reduce well cost by approximately $650,000 per well, assuming the midpoint of the target range.

此外，我們也達成我們認為的世界紀錄：在 1 天內鑽進合計 9,650 英尺的水平段，對此我們深感自豪。每日完井段數平均為 5.7 段，較 2018 年每日平均 5.2 段增加。我們持續鑽更長的水平段。本季我們成功鑽出史上最長的 Marcellus 水平段，側向長度達 16,279 英尺。這些效率提升結合服務成本通縮，預期可使單井成本降低約 65 萬美元（以目標區間中點假設）。

The enhanced produced water management will also reduce lease operating expenses. Let me clarify how we talk about water in terms of well cost and LOE. When we complete a well, after perforating and stimulating it, we flow the well back and begin to recover the water as we turn it in line. We categorize the first 90 days as flowback water and the cost to truck and recycle it is capitalized as part of the well cost. After 90 days, we account for the well -- the water as produced water, and the cost to truck and recycle it is considered LOE.

強化的產出水管理也將降低租賃營運費用（LOE）。我先釐清我們在井成本與 LOE 的脈絡下如何談論用水。當我們完成一口井，在射孔並進行壓裂刺激後，我們會讓井返排並在接入管線時開始回收水。我們將前 90 天歸類為返排水（flowback water），其卡車運輸與回收再利用成本會資本化，作為井成本的一部分。90 天之後，我們將該井的水視為產出水（produced water），其卡車運輸與回收再利用成本則列為 LOE。

So let me talk a little bit more about LOE, lease operating expenses. In the first half of 2019, produced water cost represented approximately 80% of total LOE. Assuming Antero Midstream provides the new expanded produced water services, we expect LOE to be reduced by at least 20% in Cal-20 compared to Cal-19 budgeted cost. This equates to savings of at least $50 million on an annualized basis.

因此我再多談一些 LOE（租賃營運費用）。2019 年上半年，產出水成本約占 LOE 總額的 80%。假設 Antero Midstream 提供新擴充的產出水服務，我們預期 Cal-20 的 LOE 相較 Cal-19 預算成本至少降低 20%。這相當於按年化計算至少節省 5,000 萬美元。

Slide #6, titled Appalachian Peer Marcellus Well Cost Comparison, provides a snapshot of our Appalachian peer well costs and future targets. Keep in mind that there is a variance among producers as to what costs are captured in capitalized well costs versus LOE, but the trends are useful. As you can see, our new well cost target will move us from an average ranking to becoming one of the lowest-cost producers in the lowest cost natural gas basin in the world. While we recognize that some of these cost initiatives have not been fully realized to date, we are already seeing results from the company's focus on costs as we achieve the lowest capital spending quarter in our history at $303 million for the quarter.

第 6 張投影片，標題為「阿帕拉契亞同業 Marcellus 井成本比較」，提供我們與阿帕拉契亞同業井成本及未來目標的概覽。請記住，各生產商在資本化井成本與 LOE 所涵蓋的成本項目上存在差異，但趨勢仍具參考價值。如各位所見，我們新的井成本目標將使我們從平均排名，躍升為全球成本最低的天然氣盆地中成本最低的生產商之一。雖然我們認知到部分成本措施迄今尚未完全實現，但公司聚焦成本已開始見效：本季資本支出為 3.03 億美元，創下公司史上最低單季資本支出。

Over the last 12 months, our drilling and completion CapEx was $1.55 billion, which delivered 700 million cubic feet equivalent of production growth. This was accomplished while spending near-cash flow levels, highlighting the attractive capital efficiency of our asset base. Going forward, we anticipate a quarterly D&C CapEx run rate approximately in line with the second quarter spend in the $300 million to $325 million range.

過去 12 個月，我們的鑽井與完井資本支出（CapEx）為 15.5 億美元，帶來 7 億立方英尺當量的產量成長。這是在接近現金流量水準的支出下完成，凸顯我們資產基礎具吸引力的資本效率。展望未來，我們預期每季鑽井與完井（D&C）CapEx 的執行率大致與第二季支出相當，約落在 3.00 億至 3.25 億美元區間。

In summary, we will continue to prioritize maximizing value through an intense focus on costs. The reduction in well cost is expected to deliver 2019 drilling and completion capital at the low end of our guidance range and lead to a lower D&C capital target of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion in Cal-20. The decline in capital spend during Cal-20 is despite a similar number of the well completions to 2019, but actually with a 19% increase in total lateral footage completed next year due to longer laterals.

總結而言，我們將持續以高度聚焦成本來優先追求價值最大化。井成本下降預期可使 2019 年鑽井與完井資本支出落在指引區間的低端，並在 Cal-20 將 D&C 資本目標降至 12 億至 13 億美元。Cal-20 資本支出下降，儘管完井口數與 2019 年相近，但由於水平段更長，明年完成的水平段總英尺數實際將增加 19%。

With that, I'm going to turn it over to Glen for his comments.

接下來，我把時間交給 Glen 發表他的評論。

Thank you, Paul. The second quarter was the first full reporting period with the Mariner East 2 pipeline in-service, giving us access to premium priced global LPG prices or markets. We hold about 1/3 of the current 165,000 barrel a day of capacity on Mariner East 2, making us the largest shipper on this pipeline.

謝謝你，Paul。第二季是 Mariner East 2 管線投運後的第一個完整申報期間，使我們得以接觸全球溢價的 LPG 價格或市場。我們持有 Mariner East 2 目前每日 165,000 桶運能約 1/3 的份額，使我們成為該管線最大的託運人。

During the quarter, we realized an unhedged average C3+ NGL price of $28.57 per barrel for the quarter, that's a $1.68 per barrel premium to Mont Belvieu pricing, as shown on Slide #7, titled Inflection Point in NGL Marketing and Pricing. 55% of C3+ volumes were exported and realized at $0.19 per gallon premium to Mont Belvieu pricing. In the table on the right-hand side of the slide, we provide guidance on NGL realizations relative to Mont Belvieu pricing for the full year 2019. As you can see on the blended basis, it's essentially flat to Bellevue to a slightly positive premium of $0.4 per gallon.

本季我們實現未避險的 C3+ NGL 平均價格為每桶 28.57 美元，較 Mont Belvieu 定價溢價每桶 1.68 美元，如第 7 張投影片「NGL 行銷與定價的轉折點」所示。C3+ 量的 55% 用於出口，實現較 Mont Belvieu 定價每加侖溢價 0.19 美元。在投影片右側的表格中，我們提供 2019 全年 NGL 實現價格相對 Mont Belvieu 定價的指引。如各位所見，以混合基礎計算，基本上與 Belvieu 持平至略為正向溢價每加侖 0.4 美分。

Now let's take a look at the impact of that ME2 has had on Northeast NGL differentials. Since the in-service of ME2 in February of this year, Antero's NGL price differentials improved by over $6 per barrel, flipping from a discount to a premium to Mont Belvieu. This improvement is not only from our sales in the international market but also from the strengthening of in-basin pricing in Northeast. The approximately 165,000 barrels a day flowing on ME2 evacuates almost 40% of the basin's NGL supply.

現在我們來看看 ME2 對東北地區 NGL 價差的影響。自今年 2 月 ME2 投運以來，Antero 的 NGL 價差改善超過每桶 6 美元，從相對 Mont Belvieu 的折價轉為溢價。這項改善不僅來自我們在國際市場的銷售，也來自東北盆地內定價走強。ME2 每日約 165,000 桶的輸送量，疏運了該盆地近 40% 的 NGL 供給。

On Slide #8 titled Improvement in Northeast NGL Differentials, you can see the significant improvements in price realizations following the start-up of ME2. ME2 is that dotted vertical line over to the right. First half 2018 realizations average and approximate $5.75 per barrel discount to Mont Belvieu. Despite the softer domestic prices seen during the first half of 2019 versus the prior year, our realized price relative to Mont Belvieu improved by over $6 per barrel and flipped to a premium to the index.

在第 8 張投影片「東北部 NGL 價差改善」中，您可以看到 ME2 投運後，我們的實現價格出現顯著改善。ME2 就是右側那條點狀的垂直線。2018 年上半年，我們的實現價格平均約較 Mont Belvieu 每桶折價 5.75 美元。儘管 2019 年上半年國內價格較前一年走弱，我們相對於 Mont Belvieu 的實現價格仍改善超過每桶 6 美元，並由折價轉為相對該指數的溢價。

In addition, and also not depicted on this chart, our in-basin C3+ NGL price realizations have also improved following the start-up of ME2. C2+ NGL realizations over the past 4 years have averaged about $7 per barrel, you can see that on the orange line there, discount to Belvieu but it improved by 30% in the first half of 2019.

此外，雖然此圖表未呈現，我們盆地內的 C3+ NGL 實現價格在 ME2 投運後也有所改善。過去 4 年的 C2+ NGL 實現價格平均約為每桶 7 美元；您可在橘色線看到其相對 Belvieu 的折價，但在 2019 年上半年折價改善了 30%。

Looking forward to 2020, with the completion of the full ME2 project expected by the end of 2019, total pipeline capacity will increase to 275,000 barrels a day on ME2. At that time, we have the option to increase our capacity by as much as 50,000 barrels a day and 10,000 barrels a day increments that would take us up to 100,000 barrels a day of firm capacity, which would increase our exposure to international pricing to the 65% to 75% range on Antero's expected NGL production in the year 2020.

展望 2020 年，隨著完整的 ME2 專案預計於 2019 年底前完成，ME2 的總管線運能將提升至每日 275,000 桶。屆時，我們可選擇以每次增加 10,000 桶/日的幅度，將運能最多再提高 50,000 桶/日，使我們的確定性運能提升至每日 100,000 桶；這將使我們在 2020 年 Antero 預期 NGL 產量中，對國際定價的曝險提高至 65% 至 75% 的區間。

This expansion would also evacuate a higher percentage of regional supply, which is expected to further boost in-basin price differentials. Our significant volumes on ME2 give us the highest exposure to international LPG markets, which positions us to deliver peer-leading NGL price realizations going forward.

此項擴張也將外運更高比例的區域供給，預期可進一步推升盆地內價差。我們在 ME2 上的龐大運量，使我們對國際 LPG 市場的曝險最高，讓我們得以在未來持續交付同業領先的 NGL 實現價格。

For those of you who have missed it, we have been publishing a new presentation on our website titled Weekly International LPG Pricing Update on the homepage, which provides a summary of benchmark international commodity prices for propane and butane. We hope this helps provide better visibility on the 50% of our NGL volumes that we sell into international markets. In short, the propane and butane futures curve is in contango over the next couple of years and the Northwest Europe prices are the $0.08 and $0.14 per gallon premium, respectively to Mont Belvieu net of shipping.

若各位尚未注意到，我們已在官網首頁發布一份新的簡報，名為「每週國際 LPG 定價更新」，提供丙烷與丁烷的國際基準商品價格摘要。我們希望這能讓外界更清楚掌握我們銷往國際市場之 50% NGL 量的價格能見度。簡而言之，未來幾年丙烷與丁烷期貨曲線呈現正價差（contango），而西北歐價格在扣除運費後，分別較 Mont Belvieu 每加侖溢價 0.08 美元與 0.14 美元。

I'd like to touch on the NGL macro briefly. The current weak NGL pricing in Mont Belvieu is due to limited export capacity along the Gulf Coast. Although we expect soft prices to persist through the third quarter, we do see Mont Belvieu fundamental strengthening during the fourth quarter and into 2020. The completion of export expansion projects along the Gulf Coast are expected to come online by the fourth quarter of this year, providing relief to the stranded supply that is negatively impacted Mont Belvieu NGL pricing.

我想簡要談一下 NGL 的總體面。目前 Mont Belvieu 的 NGL 價格疲弱，原因在於墨西哥灣沿岸出口能力受限。雖然我們預期疲弱價格將延續至第三季，但我們確實看到 Mont Belvieu 的基本面在第四季並延續至 2020 年將轉強。墨西哥灣沿岸的出口擴建專案預計於今年第四季投產，將緩解受困供給，該供給一直對 Mont Belvieu NGL 定價造成負面影響。

In the Northeast, the in-service of full capacity on Mariner East 2 will provide increased exports through the Marcus Hook terminal. We expect these projects to provide upside to domestic prices as well. We also see strengthening of international prices as up to the 6 new PDH plants are expected to be placed in service in China by year-end this year, while Europe and India are also expected to complete additional import terminals. In summary, we expect NGL pricing to improve as we see fundamental strengthening in the coming quarters.

在東北部，Mariner East 2 全容量投運將透過 Marcus Hook 終端提升出口量。我們預期這些專案也將為國內價格帶來上行空間。我們也看到國際價格走強：中國預計在今年底前將多達 6 座新的 PDH 工廠投入營運，同時歐洲與印度也預計完成額外的進口終端。總結而言，隨著未來幾季基本面轉強，我們預期 NGL 定價將改善。

Turning to Slide #9 titled Pure Leading Hedge Protection. During the second quarter, we added to our 2020 and our 2021 natural gas edge positions. We are now approximately 90% hedged in 2020 at an average price of $2.87 per MMBtu and over 35% hedged in 2021 at an average price of $2.88 per MMBtu, assuming approximate 10% annual production growth each year.

接著看第 9 張投影片「同業領先的避險保護」。在第二季，我們增加了 2020 年與 2021 年的天然氣避險部位。在假設每年產量約 10% 年增的情況下，我們目前 2020 年約 90% 已避險，平均價格為每 MMBtu 2.87 美元；2021 年超過 35% 已避險，平均價格為每 MMBtu 2.88 美元。

It's important to note that we continue to offset our annual net marketing expense with the hedge realizations. Based on strip pricing today, our hedge realizations will more than offset our net marketing expense through 2021, as you can see depicted on Slide #10. It's notable that we remain the only publicly traded U.S. producer that is 100% hedged on expected natural gas production in 2019, as shown on Slide #11 and 12, and have significantly more hedge protection in 2020 and 2021 than most of our Appalachian peers. This is an important investment attribute in a bear market for gas.

需要強調的是，我們持續以避險實現損益抵銷年度淨行銷費用。以今日的期貨曲線（strip pricing）計算，我們的避險實現將在 2021 年前都能超過並抵銷淨行銷費用，如第 10 張投影片所示。值得注意的是，如第 11 與第 12 張投影片所示，我們仍是美國唯一一家上市生產商，對 2019 年預期天然氣產量達到 100% 避險；且在 2020 與 2021 年的避險保護也顯著高於多數阿帕拉契亞同業。在天然氣熊市中，這是一項重要的投資特徵。

Moving on to Slide #13 titled Strong Financial Position for Low Price Environment, our balance sheet is in the strongest position in our company's history. We have reduced absolute debt by over $700 million over the last few years, resulting in low 2x leverage. We have $1.4 billion of value in our AM ownership that provides us over $200 million per year of steady cash flow. Our borrowing base was reaffirmed at $4.5 billion during the spring redetermination that was in April with unchanged commitments at $2.5 billion and only $175 million drawn on the facility. We have over $1.6 billion of liquidity available. This highlights the strength of our asset base and the depth and resilience of our drilling inventory.

接著看第 13 張投影片「低價環境下的強勁財務狀況」，我們的資產負債表處於公司史上最強位置。過去幾年我們已將絕對負債降低超過 7 億美元，使槓桿倍數降至約 2 倍出頭。我們持有 AM 的權益價值達 14 億美元，每年可帶來超過 2 億美元的穩定現金流。在 4 月的春季重估中，我們的借款基礎額度再次確認為 45 億美元，承諾額度維持 25 億美元不變，且該融資工具僅動用 1.75 億美元。我們可用流動性超過 16 億美元。這凸顯我們資產基礎的強度，以及鑽井庫存的深度與韌性。

Before turning the call over to questions, I would like to comment further on our well cost reductions and capital outlook as we look ahead. As Paul mentioned, the $303 million of CapEx was a quarterly low for us. However, the new well cost savings initiative underway, we expect to deliver quarterly CapEx in the low $300 million to $325 million rage through 2020, assuming the current commodity strip. On an annualized basis, this results in CapEx in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion in 2020.

在把電話交給問答之前，我想進一步說明我們的單井成本下降與前瞻資本展望。如 Paul 所提，3.03 億美元的資本支出（CapEx）是我們的單季低點。然而，隨著新的單井降本計畫推進，在假設目前商品期貨曲線不變的情況下，我們預期 2020 年每季 CapEx 可維持在約 3 億美元出頭至 3.25 億美元的區間。以年化計算，這相當於 2020 年 CapEx 約 12 億至 13 億美元。

The reduced well cost, combined with our strong hedge position over the next several years, support measured production growth, while spending near-cash flow levels. As a reminder, in 2020, we anticipate receiving the $125 million water earn-out payment from Antero Midstream and approximately $150 million for the natural gas pricing litigation, providing further support to our balance sheet.

降低的單井成本，加上未來數年的強勁避險部位，使我們能在支出接近現金流的水準下，支持有節制的產量成長。提醒一下，2020 年我們預期將自 Antero Midstream 收到 1.25 億美元的水務 earn-out 付款，以及約 1.5 億美元的天然氣定價訴訟款項，進一步支撐我們的資產負債表。

Our focus remains on maintaining a strong balance sheet. We have the flexibility and the strong asset base to adjust our development plan, depending on the commodity price environment. Lower well costs led to a reduction in our maintenance CapEx estimates.

我們的重點仍是維持強健的資產負債表。我們具備彈性與強大的資產基礎，可依商品價格環境調整開發計畫。較低的單井成本使我們下調維持性資本支出（maintenance CapEx）的估算。

Turning to Slide #14 titled Maintenance and Decline Rate Projections, we now project maintenance CapEx, that's to keep production flat at 3.2 Bcfe a day, to be approximately $670 million.

接著看第 14 張投影片「維持性資本支出與遞減率預測」，我們目前預估維持性 CapEx（即將產量維持在每日 3.2 Bcfe 不變）約為 6.7 億美元。

In summary, please turn to Slide #15 titled AR has Built a Resilient Business Model. Despite the macro and market headwinds today, we've built a business that is resilient through all environments. We've achieved significant scale and product diversity, while maintaining balance sheet strength. Our peer-leading hedge book and midstream ownership provide substantial liquidity and affords us protection through sustained downturns. These attributes differentiate us versus our peer group and provide flexibility to succeed under varying market conditions. We are very well positioned as a company to generate significant sustainable free cash flow over the long term.

總結而言，請看第 15 張投影片「AR 已建立具韌性的商業模式」。儘管目前面臨總體與市場逆風，我們已打造出能在各種環境下保持韌性的企業。我們在維持資產負債表強度的同時，達成顯著規模與產品多元化。我們同業領先的避險部位與中游資產持股提供充足流動性，並使我們在長期低迷期間仍能獲得保護。這些特質使我們相較同業更具差異化，並在不同市場條件下提供成功所需的彈性。就長期而言，我們公司具備非常有利的定位，可產生可觀且可持續的自由現金流。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

那麼，接下來我把電話交給接線員進行提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Welles Fitzpatrick with SunTrust.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Welles Fitzpatrick。

The Utica rates seem to be improving since the last kind of -- last you guys disclose. Is there any chance that the Utica begins to get a little bit larger of a share CapEx dollars moving forward?

Utica 的費率看起來自從上次你們披露以來一直在改善。未來 Utica 有沒有可能在資本支出（CapEx）中占比變得更大一些？

There's certainly a chance. That's something we monitor, and we do have number of Utica locations that are at the very low end of our cost curve. But at the end of the day, you're much better off completing pads in the same general area from an operating and a capital cost standpoint. So right now, we’re really massed to develop in the very much liquids-rich Marcellus. But we like the Utica as well, and we just brought on 6 dry gas wells, which you are probably alluding to in the quarter, and those look really strong.

確實有這個可能。這是我們會持續監控的事情，而且我們在 Utica 有一些井位位於我們成本曲線的最低端。但歸根結底，從營運與資本成本的角度來看，在同一大致區域完成同一井場（pad）的作業要划算得多。所以目前我們的開發重心仍然非常集中在液體含量很高的 Marcellus。不過我們也喜歡 Utica，我們剛投產了 6 口乾氣井，你們在本季可能就是在指這些井，表現看起來非常強勁。

To your point on the Marcellus liquids, it looked like the liquids curve was down a little bit quarter-over-quarter, is that location or is that NGL recovery-driven?

關於你提到的 Marcellus 液體，看起來液體曲線季度對季度略有下降，這是因為井位因素，還是因為 NGL 回收率驅動？

I don't believe it's NGL recovery-driven. I think you're just going to see a little variance quarter-to-quarter on that as we jump from completions in the 1,240 Btu to the 1,275 Btu and back and forth, so that's just going to vary. And those are pretty chunky obviously when bring it on 8-, 10-, 12-well pads so it can impact the quarterly numbers a bit.

我不認為是 NGL 回收率驅動。我認為你會看到它在季度之間有些波動，因為我們的完井會在 1,240 Btu 與 1,275 Btu 之間切換、來回變動，所以這本來就會有差異。而且很明顯，當我們一次投產 8 口、10 口、12 口井的井場（pad）時，這些數字會很「大塊」，因此可能會對季度數據造成一些影響。

Okay. Okay. Perfect. And then just one last one from me. The previous multiyear guidance, I think it had something of a 10% to 15% sort of soft guide for growth but obviously at a much higher commodity price. Should we think -- how should we be thinking of that going forward? Obviously, prices are lower but you've done a lot to offset that vis-a-vis costs. How should we frame that moving forward?

好的。好的。太好了。那我最後一個問題。先前的多年期指引，我記得在商品價格更高的情況下，對成長有大約 10% 到 15% 的偏軟性指引。我們接下來應該怎麼看待這件事？顯然價格更低，但你們也做了很多事情透過成本來抵消。我們應該如何在未來框架化這件事？

Yes. I think you can see from all materials in the press release we're very much focused on that sort of 10% CAGR over the next several years for production growth, so we're not looking at that upside growth case. In fact, if we see improvement in commodity prices, which we certainly think that we will over the coming quarters and years, that'll just to be captured as additional cash flow for deleveraging and other uses, not for accelerating the capital plan.

是的。我想你可以從新聞稿的所有資料看出來，我們非常聚焦於未來幾年產量成長約 10% 的年複合成長率（CAGR），所以我們並沒有在追求那種上行的成長情境。事實上，如果我們看到商品價格改善——我們確實認為未來幾季與幾年會改善——那只會以額外現金流的形式用於去槓桿及其他用途，而不是用來加速資本計畫。

Our next question comes from Jane Trotsenko from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jane Trotsenko。

I have a nosy question to start with. Maybe you can discuss CapEx and production cadence over the remainder of 2019?

我先問一個有點八卦的問題。你們能否談談 2019 年剩餘期間的資本支出（CapEx）與產量節奏？

Yes. I'm sorry, you're asking how much reduction we see in the year 2019?

好的。抱歉，你是在問我們在 2019 年會看到多少削減嗎？

No. No. No. I'm talking about CapEx and production cadence, how should we think about quarter-over-quarter production for 3Q to 4Q and also CapEx spending?

不是。不是。不是。我是在談資本支出和產量節奏，也就是我們應該如何看待第三季到第四季的季度對季度產量，以及資本支出花費？

Yes. Well, I mean, you can see we're right at our guidance for the year on production. So I think you'll see that pretty flat through the year, and then we expect capital as we stated in the call. We expect that still run in that $300 million, maybe a little bit over $300 million each quarter for the next many quarters really.

好的。嗯，你可以看到我們今年的產量正好落在指引範圍內。所以我認為今年剩餘時間會相當平穩；至於資本支出，如同我們在電話會議中所說，我們預期接下來很多個季度仍會維持在每季 3 億美元左右，可能略高於 3 億美元。

Okay. So would it be fair to say that CapEx spending over the remainder of the year would be pretty spread out, like equally spread out over the remaining 2 quarters?

好的。所以可以公平地說，今年剩餘期間的資本支出會相當平均地分攤，也就是在剩下兩個季度大致平均分配？

Yes, exactly. That's the message, Jane. It's pretty flat.

是的，完全正確。Jane，這就是我們要傳達的訊息。相當平坦。

Okay. Okay. And then given very strong 2Q production, I'm just curious if that was expected, given the well cadence on your side -- given very strong 2Q production, how should we think about full year production guidance? Are you expecting now to come in on the high end of the full year production guidance, midrange or maybe low end?

好的。好的。另外，鑑於第二季產量非常強勁，我只是好奇這是否在預期之內，考量到你們這邊的井場節奏——在第二季產量很強的情況下，我們應該如何看待全年產量指引？你們現在預期會落在全年產量指引的高端、中位數，還是可能偏低端？

I think the midrange is a good expectation. It does -- the quarterly numbers depend a bit on the cadence, and we've been fortunate to bring pads on earlier than expected, and we've also really liked the results, so we've seen the productivity of the wells. So I think you're seeing some of that. But no, we're not raising to the high end, I think the midpoint is a good place to be.

我認為中位數是個合理的預期。季度數字確實會在一定程度上取決於節奏，而我們很幸運能比預期更早讓一些井場投產，而且我們也非常喜歡結果，因此我們看到了井的生產力。所以我想你看到的部分原因在這裡。但不，我們不會把它提高到高端；我認為落在中點是個不錯的位置。

Okay. Perfect. And my last question is regarding gathering fees and the fee. Do you see an opportunity to reduce gathering fees and maybe offload some of the FT commitments in the near future?

好的。太好了。我最後一個問題是關於集輸費（gathering fees）和相關費用。你們是否看到在近期降低集輸費、並可能卸除部分 FT 承諾的機會？

We always look at that, but so far there's -- it's difficult in this environment as prices have contracted, the spreads have contracted too, so the FT is less desirable.

我們一直都在看這件事，但到目前為止——在這種環境下很困難，因為價格收縮了，價差也收縮了，所以 FT 的吸引力變小了。

Our next question comes from Holly Stewart with Scotia Howard Weil.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scotia Howard Weil 的 Holly Stewart。

Maybe just hitting on this -- on all the water savings, Paul, I think you gave a percent of LOE that produced water made up, but I missed that. What was that number or that percentage?

也許就這點追問一下——Paul，關於所有的節水，我記得你提到產出水在 LOE 中所占的百分比，但我漏聽了。那個數字或百分比是多少？

It was 80%, 8-0 percent of LOE.

是 80%，也就是 LOE 的 8-0%。

Okay. Big number. And then admittedly my understanding of the entire water value chain could be better. So with that in mind, can you sort of help us -- I mean, I remember it wasn't that long ago that we we're talking about using more water per foot in our completions. So I guess, what has changed, and then maybe give us a sense for the pilots that you've done so far?

好的。很大的數字。另外，坦白說，我對整個水的價值鏈理解還可以更好。所以在這個前提下，你能不能幫我們梳理一下——我的意思是，我記得不久之前我們還在談在完井中每英尺使用更多的水。所以我想問，究竟改變了什麼？另外也請你們讓我們了解一下目前為止做過的試點。

Yes. Well, what has changed as we said in the remarks, really the interaction between wells that you go on wider fracs the more -- or the fracs go further out away from the wellbore, depending on how much water you use. The converse is with sand, it's better near bore conductivity, as we say, the fractures are well connected. So we saw that we didn't need to go quite as wide and half-length between wellbores that we could cut back on the water. What we see, of course, the industry, and so we are seeing things that just the way the industry is that 100-mesh is a little bit simpler. We use some of the coarser meshes in some of our designs. But we can get the jobs off pretty quickly with virtually no screen-outs by going with the 100-mesh, and when we do that, it requires less water. So we are able to cut back just a little bit, so 10% or 15% cut on the water and stick with mostly 100-mesh on the proppant, and that's working well.

好的。嗯，改變之處如同我們在談話中所說，主要是井與井之間的相互作用：你用的水越多，壓裂（fracs）就會越寬——或者說，裂縫會依用水量不同而向井筒外延伸得更遠。相反地，就砂而言，我們所說的近井筒導流能力更好，裂縫的連通性更佳。因此我們看到其實不需要做得那麼寬，在井筒之間的半長距離上，我們可以減少用水。當然，我們也看到整個產業的趨勢；就產業現況而言，100 目（100-mesh）相對更簡單。我們在部分設計中也會使用一些較粗的目數。但採用 100 目時，我們幾乎不會發生砂堵（screen-outs），而且可以很快完成作業；而這麼做也需要更少的水。所以我們能稍微降低一些用水量，大約減少 10% 或 15%，同時支撐劑（proppant）主要仍以 100 目為主，而效果很好。

And do you have an estimate of how much that specifically is helping in terms of well cost?

那麼您是否能估算一下，這在單井成本方面具體能帶來多少幫助？

We have a component there, let's see, Mike is pulling out his number?

我們那邊有一個組成項，讓我看看，Mike 正在把他的數字找出來？

$280,000 per well just on the water and then the actual produced water savings because you have lower produced water because you now put less water in it, so further $108,000. So it's about $400,000 in total.

每口井光是在用水方面就是 28 萬美元，然後還有實際的採出水節省，因為你現在注入的水更少，所以採出水也更少，因此再省 10.8 萬美元。所以合計大約是 40 萬美元。

Right. So the first $200,000, remember, we were explaining that we call -- the first 90 days of the water coming back, we call that flowback and so those cost to truck and cleanup are part of the well costs. So that's the $280,000. And then the next amount that Mike talked about is the LOE savings beyond the first 90 days, but it's material for both. It's definitely an important cash factor for us.

對。所以前 20 萬美元，記得我們之前解釋過——我們把回流水的前 90 天稱為返排（flowback），因此卡車運輸與清理的成本屬於井成本的一部分。所以那就是 28 萬美元。然後 Mike 提到的下一部分金額，是超過前 90 天之後的 LOE 節省，但兩者都很重要。這對我們來說絕對是一個重要的現金因素。

Yes. That's very helpful. Maybe this is one for you, Glen. I know you talked in detail on the release about utilizing the lower cost FT as opposed to the higher-cost project. So can you just give us some maybe some color around that? I don't know if you want to reference projects, but just kind of help us understand those comments.

是的。這非常有幫助。也許這題給你，Glen。我知道你在新聞稿中詳細談到使用成本較低的 FT，而不是成本較高的方案。所以你能否就此提供一些補充說明？我不確定你是否想引用具體專案，但請大致幫我們理解你那些評論。

Yes. At the end of day, I think our molecules are just chasing the best pricing, the best netbacks and when you have tight differentials in the basin, and you're keeping some of the gas closer to home, and that's what we've seen some in the second quarter. I think it's as simple as that.

是的。歸根結底，我認為我們的分子（產品）就是在追逐最佳定價、最佳淨回收（netbacks）；當盆地內的價差（differentials）很緊、而你把部分天然氣留在更靠近本地的地方時——這也是我們在第二季看到的一些情況。我想就這麼簡單。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe finally, from me, just on high level, just kind of thoughts around the AM ownership here. I know historically, you sort of used that to raise capital at least each year, maybe with the exception of 2018, but there was a lot going on with the simplification in that year. So maybe just high-level thoughts on the AM ownership?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。最後一個問題，從更高層面來看，想請教你們對這裡 AM 持股的想法。我知道過去你們大致上每年都會用它來籌資，至少除了 2018 年之外；但那一年因為簡化（simplification）有很多事情在進行。所以能否談談對 AM 持股的高層次看法？

We like the ownership. You can see the $200 million or so of dividend stream and simply growing over time. So it'd be tough to sell it, particularly today at a 13% kind of yield. So tough for us to let go that is what I'm getting at. So we're not inclined to do anything with it today, and we really enjoy that ownership and see tremendous amount of upside in AM. So I think we'll stand pat for now.

我們喜歡這項持股。你可以看到大約 2 億美元左右的股利現金流，而且會隨時間穩步成長。所以要賣掉它會很難，尤其是在今天大概 13% 這種殖利率水準下。所以我想說的是，我們很難放手。因此我們目前不傾向對它做任何動作，而且我們非常享受這項持股，並看到 AM 有非常大的上行空間。所以我想我們暫時會按兵不動。

Our next question comes from Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Brian Singer。

Can you talk a bit more of how you see the balance sheet evolving, particularly how you see the options and your own level of urgency with regards to debt coming due in 2021 and 2022?

你能否再多談一些你們如何看待資產負債表的演變，特別是你們對於 2021 年與 2022 年到期債務的選項，以及你們自身在處理這些到期債務方面的緊迫程度？

Yes. Of course, we've got great rates on those 2 bonds that you're alluding to, and they come due at the end of each of those years. So we've got almost 2.5 years on the 2021 maturity, and obviously more like 3.5 years on the other one. So not real sense of urgency there. We pick our spots with the bond market, and it's kind of tough around the last month or so. And so we'll be opportunistic about that. But I think that's not something that keeps us up at night by any means. We've got tremendous amount of liquidity on our credit facility, very strong bank group, more banks wanting to get in to our credit facility, so that's all. All in good shape as far as we're concerned.

是的。當然，你提到的那兩筆債券我們的利率非常好，而且它們分別在那兩個年度的年底到期。所以 2021 年那筆到期日距今還有將近 2.5 年，另一筆顯然更接近 3.5 年。因此並沒有很強的緊迫感。我們會在債券市場上挑選合適的時點，而過去一個月左右市場有點困難。所以我們會採取機會主義的方式。但我認為這絕不是會讓我們夜不能寐的事情。我們在循環信貸額度上有非常充裕的流動性，銀行團也非常強，還有更多銀行想加入我們的信貸額度，所以這些都——就我們看來，一切狀況都很好。

Great. And then just a couple of follow-ups on the points made earlier. The $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion exploration and development budget, what production growth do you expect that to get you in 2020? And then with regards to the $150 million of litigation proceeds, what are the risks, if there's any, to the upside or downside with regards to receiving those proceeds or the time line to receive them?

很好。接著針對先前提到的幾點再追問兩個問題。12 億到 13 億美元的勘探與開發預算，你們預期 2020 年能帶來多少產量成長？另外，關於 1.5 億美元的訴訟收益，在收取這些收益或收取時間表方面，上行或下行有哪些風險（如果有的話）？

Yes, on the production, I mean, we talk about a 10% production CAGR, and that's a multiyear look. So I think you can handicap that, give or take, 2% or 3% either side of that, but that's kind of the outlook for the next few years. So I think you'll see us sort of average 10% production growth. And that $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion next year keeps us very much on that track. And then similar levels, we really don't need much of an increase over time, over the next few years, to deliver that over that $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion range, it stays in that range. So we feel good about that.

是的，關於產量，我們談的是 10% 的產量複合年成長率（CAGR），而那是以多年期的角度來看。所以你可以用這個做估算，上下大概差 2% 或 3%，但這就是未來幾年的展望。因此我認為你會看到我們大致平均約 10% 的產量成長。而明年的 12 億到 13 億美元，讓我們非常確實地維持在那條軌道上。此外，未來幾年我們其實不需要隨時間大幅增加，就能在 12 億到 13 億美元這個區間內交付成果，會維持在這個範圍。所以我們對此感到很有信心。

And then on the litigation?

那訴訟方面呢？

On the litigation front, yes, those -- we wouldn't talk about those publicly if they weren't pretty far down the road. And so there was a jury trial on the biggest piece of that with a utility with the WGL, and that ended very much in our favor. And they can always -- the other side can always appeal, of course. So that -- the timing would be the risk, I would say, on that, could come sooner, could come later, but I think that's a good handicap ending the year 2020. The other one is South Jersey, Brian, you can read about that in the Q or 10-K, that's pretty well described there, but similar kind of circumstance.

在訴訟方面，是的，那些——如果不是已經進展到相當後期，我們不會公開談。其中最大的一部分是與 WGL 的公用事業公司之間的陪審團審判，而結果非常有利於我們。當然，對方總是可以——對方總是可以上訴。所以我會說風險在於時間點：可能更早，也可能更晚，但我認為以 2020 年底作為估算是合理的。另一件是 South Jersey，Brian，你可以在季報或 10-K 裡讀到，那裡描述得很清楚，情況也類似。

Our next question comes from Subash Chandra with Guggenheim Partners.

下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Subash Chandra。

My water vocabulary is also challenged. So just wanted to ask for some clarification. My understanding at least is that there's a few pathways in the water business. One is the disposal, cleaning it up through Clearwater and putting it into, I guess, nearby water bodies, et cetera. The other is recycling and there might be other aspects of it. But could you kind of clarify where these savings are occurring, first of all? And second of all, what remaining aspects of the water handling are future challenges? And then finally, is the water stuff discussed on the print today, is it 100% application? Or are you easing into it in 2020?

我的水務詞彙也有點不足。所以想請你們再澄清一下。至少我的理解是，水務業務有幾條路徑。一條是處置（disposal），透過 Clearwater 進行淨化處理，然後把它排入我猜是附近的水體等等。另一條是回收再利用（recycling），可能還有其他面向。但你們能否先釐清一下，這些節省主要發生在哪些環節？其次，水處理/水務處置還有哪些剩餘環節是未來的挑戰？最後，今天書面資料中討論的水務內容，是 100% 全面應用嗎？還是你們會在 2020 年逐步導入？

Good questions, Subash.

問題問得很好，Subash。

Good questions. Yes, we...

問題問得很好。是的，我們……

No, I think that's a good tutorial on what's going on. So I mean, I'll turn it to Paul. But the first way to think about it and I think is really what we're doing is kind of shortening the loop as we move north in the liquids-rich area. I mean some of that is 25, 30 miles away from some of that development from Clearwater. So you might think of it as rather than taking it all back to Clearwater where the trucking can be $6, $7, $8 a barrel, we're essentially reusing it right there in the area. So that's how we refer to it as local reuse and it goes right back into the next completion. So just shortening the loop and taking the trucking out, and the fees are also presumed to be a bit lower for the cleanup of the water we're doing locally.

不，我覺得那對於目前在發生什麼，是個很好的教學說明。所以我的意思是，我把問題交給 Paul。但第一個思考方式，而且我認為這也正是我們在做的，是當我們往北移動到富含液體的區域時，某種程度上是在縮短循環。我的意思是，其中一些開發點距離 Clearwater 的一些開發區有 25、30 英里遠。所以你可以把它想成：與其把所有東西都運回 Clearwater（卡車運輸成本可能是每桶 6、7、8 美元），我們基本上是在當地直接再利用。所以我們把這稱為在地再利用，並且直接回到下一口井的完井作業中。所以就是縮短循環、把卡車運輸拿掉，而且我們也預期在本地進行水處理的清理費用會稍微低一些。

Yes. That's right. The fees can be lower because the cleanup, we can take advantage of a blending as well by just taking the affluent, just as Clearwater does. But not doing as deep a cut on the flowback and produced water, and blending it down and using it in the future completions. So as Glen said, big savings on the trucking side because we're keeping it close to where the development is, and then big savings on the cleanup in that we can use polishing and blending down to be a little more economic.

是的。沒錯。費用可以更低，因為在清理方面，我們也能利用混配（blending）的優勢，就像 Clearwater 所做的那樣，直接取用出流水（effluent）。但我們不需要對返排水（flowback）與產出水（produced water）做那麼深度的處理，而是把它混配稀釋後，用於未來的完井作業。所以如 Glen 所說，卡車運輸端有很大的節省，因為我們把它留在靠近開發區的地方；而清理端也有很大的節省，因為我們可以用拋光處理（polishing）與混配稀釋，讓整體更具經濟性。

And then in terms of what we've been talking about, we've been completing wells in the liquids-rich fairway with, call it, 75, 25 freshwater and then the cleaned up water, I think, locally. And that will vary over time, it can be 80-20, it's just going to vary a bit. We are blending in some water that's treated locally is the whole concept, and we'll be doing some of that this year and I think Subhasish asked about proportionally.

接著就我們一直在談的內容而言，我們在富含液體的主產帶（fairway）完井時，大概是用 75、25 的淡水與我想是本地處理後的水來配比。而這個比例會隨時間變動，可能是 80-20，只是會有些變化。整個概念就是把一部分在地處理的水混進來；我們今年會做一些，我想 Subhasish 問的是比例上的問題。

Yes. We're stepping into it as we speak. We have a number of pads that we are completing here in the third and fourth quarters of Cal-19, and those are up in this focused development area to the north. And so we'll be doing both polishing and blending there and step into it in a more fulsome way through Cal-20.

是的。我們現在就正在逐步導入。我們在 Cal-19 的第三與第四季有多個井場（pads）要完井，這些都位於北邊這個聚焦開發區。因此我們會在那裡同時做拋光處理與混配，並在 Cal-20 以更全面的方式推進。

Okay. So I guess, to boil it down, the 120-ish well development plan for 2020, these water savings apply to all these wells?

好的。所以我想把它簡化一下：2020 年大約 120 口井的開發計畫，這些節水效益會適用於所有這些井嗎？

If possible, yes.

如果可行的話，是的。

Yes. We've -- and our logistics team working to do -- work hard on the logistics. We're fortunate that our acreage position is quite concentrated, so we don't have the issue of pads distant from each other. And so in that way, it's not only efficient for midstream for the hookups but for water transfer between pads. As we flowback one pad, we can use that water right next door to complete the next pad. So a nice focus that way. And -- so the goal will be to do it on all 110 to 120 wells next year and apply those savings, not only the well cost savings, but the LOE savings throughout the board.

是的。我們——以及我們的物流團隊——正在努力把物流工作做好。我們很幸運，我們的租地（acreage）位置相當集中，所以不會有井場彼此距離很遠的問題。因此這不僅讓中游管線接駁（hookups）更有效率，也讓井場之間的水轉運更有效率。當我們對一個井場進行返排（flowback）時，我們可以把那個水直接用在隔壁井場的下一次完井。所以在這方面有很好的聚焦。而——所以目標是明年在全部 110 到 120 口井上都這麼做並套用這些節省，不僅是單井成本的節省，也包括全面性的 LOE（租賃營運費用）節省。

Got it. Okay. I'll let that sink in. I'll probably follow-up off-line in the next couple of weeks. Just another follow-up on the simultaneous operations, is that -- on the larger pads, is that pretty common right now? Is that built into the 2020 guidance?

了解。好的。我先消化一下。我可能會在接下來幾週私下再跟進。再追問一個關於同步作業（simultaneous operations）的问题：在較大的井場上，這現在算是很常見嗎？這有納入 2020 年的指引（guidance）嗎？

It's -- we've done it, we've done it recently, the sign-ups, where we're having either 2 crews at once on different ends of the pad. We're completing or we're drilling on one end and completing on the other. But I think we have enough flexibility that we don't have to do that all that often and there's not much gap in cycle times. So we're built to do that, but we -- it's probably about 15% of our pads that we do sign ops on.

這個——我們做過，而且最近也做過所謂的 sign ops，也就是在同一個井場的不同端同時有兩組隊伍作業。我們可能在一端完井，另一端鑽井，或是一端鑽井、另一端完井。但我認為我們有足夠的彈性，不需要太常這麼做，而且週期時間（cycle times）的落差也不大。所以我們具備這樣做的能力，但我們——大概只有約 15% 的井場會做 sign ops。

Our next question comes from Sean Sneeden with Guggenheim Securities.

下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Securities 的 Sean Sneeden。

Glen, maybe for you just on leverage, picked up a little bit in the quarter. When you think about trying to maintain what has been typically a pretty conservative balance sheet, it sounds like in the near term you're kind of comfortable with the level liquidity and funding the outspend that way. But when you think about different levers you may have to address and keep leverage in check near term, I guess, how are you guys thinking about some of the noncore stuff you may have, whether it's Utica or have you, AM units or slowing down?

Glen，可能請你談一下槓桿（leverage），本季看起來略有上升。當你們思考要維持一向相當保守的資產負債表時，聽起來短期內你們對流動性水位以及用那樣的方式來支應超支（outspend）是滿有信心的。但當你想到短期內可能用哪些不同的槓桿來處理並把槓桿率控制住時，我想問，你們怎麼看待一些可能的非核心資產（noncore stuff），不管是 Utica、或是你們有的 AM 單位（units），或是放慢節奏？

The slowdown, that's not really in the cards. I mean, that's what this is all about, right, improving capital efficiencies and reducing well costs, it enables us to continue on the pace that we've been talking about, so that's really not something that's being kicked around. And in terms of cash flow, free cash flow needs, the outspend, it's in the -- over the next 3, 4 years, it's in the several hundred million dollars, it's not using stage throughout and that's probably due our hedge profile and all that. So it's not a real big number. So the actual debt itself, we don't see that increasing much. It's just that EBITDA has come down a bit for everyone over the past few quarters with the commodity price coming down. So it's really the denominator that's come down a bit. So we're managing the balance sheet just fine, it's not growing tremendously, and we're very comfortable where we are and you'll see us continue to hedge opportunistically as well.

放慢速度，這其實不在考量之內。我的意思是，這整件事的重點就是提升資本效率並降低單井成本，這讓我們能夠持續以我們一直在談的節奏推進，所以這真的不是我們在討論的選項。至於現金流、自由現金流需求與超支（outspend），在接下來 3、4 年大概是數億美元等級，而且並不是每一段期間都會發生，這可能也跟我們的避險結構（hedge profile）等等有關。所以那不是一個非常大的數字。因此實際的債務本身，我們不認為會增加很多。只是過去幾季因為商品價格下滑，大家的 EBITDA 都下降了一些。所以其實是分母下降了一點。因此我們的資產負債表管理得很好，規模不會大幅成長，我們對目前的位置非常安心，而且你也會看到我們持續把握機會進行避險。

As far as -- I'm sorry, you mentioned divestitures or whatever. The door is always open for that. We consider that, we look at those from time to time. But I'd say, there's not a big initiative to go out and sell a chunk of our position. We like all of our position, and it gives us sort of unparalleled inventory in the basin. But yes, the doors are open for those kinds of things. So I don't think they're big needle movers but it could happen.

至於——抱歉，你提到資產出售（divestitures）之類的。那扇門永遠是開著的。我們會考慮，也會不時檢視這些選項。但我會說，目前沒有一個很大的主動計畫要出去賣掉我們部位的一大塊。我們喜歡我們所有的部位，這也讓我們在這個盆地擁有某種程度上無可比擬的庫存（inventory）。但沒錯，對這類事情我們是開放的。所以我不認為它們會是很大的關鍵驅動因素，但確實有可能發生。

Understood. That's helpful. And then just on ethane, can you remind us what your FT minimums are there? And is it, I guess, fair to assume that just the current price in the strip, you project above those levels?

了解。這很有幫助。接著關於乙烷（ethane），你能提醒我們你們那邊 FT 的最低承諾量（minimums）是多少嗎？另外，我想問，是否可以合理假設以目前遠期曲線（strip）上的價格來看，你們預估會高於那些水準？

Yes, we're recovering 40,000, 41,000 barrels a day and much of that is for firm sales. Our FT, we have 20,000 barrels a day on ATEX for ethane transport to Mont Belvieu. We've laid some of that off, so net to Antero, 10,000 barrels a day which we are using to facilitate firm sales here and there. But we have a number of firm sales to different parties, both internationally and also domestically, internationally including Sarnia. So we're a little above -- our firm sales are a little bit higher than our must recover, but we always have an eye on Btu of the residue stream coming out of the plants. And we certainly have flexibility to recover more. But right now, as you know, the numbers say reject the ethane where you can, except, again, to stay within spec and also to fulfill some firm sales on ethane.

是的，我們目前每天回收4萬桶、4.1萬桶，其中很大一部分用於確定性銷售。我們的FT方面，我們在ATEX上有每天2萬桶用於乙烷運輸至Mont Belvieu。我們已經釋出其中一部分，因此Antero的淨額是每天1萬桶，我們用它來在不同情況下促成一些確定性銷售。但我們與不同對手方有多筆確定性銷售，既有國際也有國內，國際方面包括Sarnia。所以我們略高於——我們的確定性銷售略高於我們必須回收的量，但我們始終關注從工廠出來的殘餘氣流的Btu。而且我們當然有彈性可以回收更多。但就目前而言，如你所知，數據顯示在可行之處就應該拒收乙烷（ethane rejection），當然，仍需符合規格，並且也要履行一些乙烷的確定性銷售。

Got it. That makes sense. And can you remind us what's the average tenure of your firm's sales arrangements?

了解。這很合理。你能提醒我們一下，你們公司的確定性銷售安排平均期限是多久嗎？

I would say about, yes, 10 to 20 years, I would say. We're a base provider for the upcoming Shell Cracker just west of Pittsburgh. So that will be even more supply and that is 20-year contract there and some of our...

我會說大約——是的，大概10到20年。我們是匹茲堡以西即將投產的Shell裂解廠的基礎供應商。所以那將帶來更多供應，那邊是20年合約，還有我們的一些……

15.

15。

Oh, excuse me, 15. And -- but we have international with contracts with Borealis, with Ineos, with others that are typically 10-year contracts.

噢，抱歉，15年。另外——我們也有國際合約，與Borealis、Ineos以及其他公司簽約，通常是10年期合約。

Our next question comes from Matt Henske with Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自Macquarie的Matt Henske。

Your preliminary 2020 comments on free cash flow suggest $275 million outspend, excluding onetime items. Can you help provide color on any drivers that may be impacting the outspend other than transport fee assumptions?

你們對2020年的初步評論顯示自由現金流將超支2.75億美元（不含一次性項目）。能否請你們補充說明，除了運輸費用假設之外，還有哪些因素可能在影響這個超支？

Yes. I think as we outlined earlier in the call, I don't know if you missed that, but we want to fill our transport. And we still have economic drilling to do, and so we're staying the course rather than simply hit the brakes to generate free cash flow next year. We still have a lot of firm transport to fill next year.

可以。我想正如我們在電話會議前面提到的——不確定你是否錯過了——但我們希望把我們的運輸能力填滿。而且我們仍然有具經濟性的鑽井可做，因此我們選擇按既定方針前進，而不是單純踩煞車、在明年就產生自由現金流。我們明年仍有大量的確定性運輸（FT）需要填滿。

Okay. Is there any change in the Btu outlook assumption or any other assumption year-over-year? Any other color, I guess, that he can provide.

好的。那麼在Btu展望假設或其他假設上，與去年相比有任何變化嗎？我想問的是，還有沒有其他補充說明可以提供？

No. Can't give any.

沒有。不能提供任何。

Okay. And then moving on to my last question. I'm just wondering if you can provide free cash flow sensitivity to, say, $1 change in C3+ NGL pricing, given your mentioned the $29 assumption a bit helps your pricing for next year?

好的。那我最後一個問題。我想請問你們能否提供自由現金流對C3+ NGL價格每變動1美元的敏感度？因為你們提到29美元的假設對明年的定價有些幫助。

Yes. Looking at -- we produce about 100,000 barrels a day. So if that's times 365, that's 36.5 million barrels. So $1 would be about $40 million.

可以。我們的產量大約是每天10萬桶。所以乘以365天，就是3,650萬桶。因此每1美元大約是4,000萬美元。

Our next question comes from Ethan Bellamy with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自Baird的Ethan Bellamy。

Gentlemen, last December you unloaded some of the 2019 gas hedges, it looks like a rare miss on your hedging strategy. Are you bullish on gas in 2020 on decline rates? And was your timing just off? Or did the new longer-dated hedges that you put on in the second quarter suggest a more pessimistic view on go-forward pricing?

各位先生，去年12月你們解除了一部分2019年的天然氣避險，看起來像是你們避險策略中少見的一次失誤。你們是否因為遞減率而看多2020年的天然氣？是時點掌握失準嗎？還是說你們在第二季新增的較長天期避險，反映你們對未來價格走勢更偏悲觀？

Well, to be in this business, one has to be optimistic. So we are positive thinkers and optimistic, but we're also defensive. So the hedges that we added were definitely -- it's not only a price target but it's when does it happen. And so just to be protective of the balance sheet, we added hedges through Cal-20. You're right, as we monetize some hedges, always have an eye on delevering and putting forward the best credit metrics. We were seeing a positive set-up in terms of supply and demand when we did that back in December. But, yes, a hindsight that was a miss. We would've been better off to just hold onto those. We wouldn't have paid down the $350 million of debt or so. But we would've -- we marked that to market every month or so just to learn from our decisions and that was one where it would have been maybe $100 million ahead by not doing that.

嗯，要做這個行業，就必須保持樂觀。所以我們是正向思考、保持樂觀，但我們也採取防禦策略。因此我們新增的避險確實——不只是價格目標，還包括它何時發生。所以為了保護資產負債表，我們把避險加到2020年曆年（Cal-20）。你說得對，當我們將部分避險變現時，也一直關注去槓桿，並提出最佳的信用指標。我們在去年12月做那件事時，看到供需面有正向的佈局。但，是的，事後看那確實是一次失誤。我們本來應該更好地只是把那些避險留著。那樣我們就不會償還大約3.5億美元的債務。但我們會——我們大概每個月做一次市價評估（mark-to-market），用來從決策中學習；那次如果不做，可能會多出約1億美元。

Yes, I think it's really -- demand has been soft -- a little bit softer than expected, it's not really been the supply. And then just the overall sentiment, so that kind of caught us offsides, I guess, Ethan.

是的，我認為主要是——需求偏弱——比預期稍微弱一些，並不是供給的問題。再加上整體市場情緒，所以我想這讓我們有點措手不及，Ethan。

Okay. And then in terms of the strategy, you guys have laid out some nice seemingly kind of incremental improvements to the business, but that doesn't seem consistent with the kind of urgency I'm hearing from clients about the decline in the stock prices. You addressed potentially laying off FT, are there any other strategic moves available to you, like selling acreage, potential midstream asset, JV sales that might help arrest some capital declines and preserve capital here?

好的。那就策略而言，你們提出了一些看起來不錯、逐步改善業務的措施，但這似乎與我從客戶那裡聽到的、對股價下跌的急迫感不太一致。你們提到可能釋出部分FT，除此之外，還有沒有其他可行的策略動作，例如出售礦權、可能出售中游資產、合資（JV）股權出售等，以協助遏止資本下滑並在此保留資本？

Well, there's all of that. But I mean, keep in mind, we're 2.3x levered and we have well over $1 billion of liquidity. So I mean there's not a real sense of urgency to do those kinds of more dramatic things. And sure, we're always looking at strategic things, a lot of which we can't really talk about publicly until they're done, but we're always working on lots of different alternatives.

嗯，這些都有可能。但請記住，我們的槓桿倍數是2.3倍，而且我們有超過10億美元的流動性。所以坦白說，並沒有一種真正的急迫感需要去做那些更戲劇性的事情。當然，我們一直在看各種策略性選項，其中很多在完成之前我們無法公開談論，但我們一直在推進許多不同的替代方案。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. I'll now turn it back to Michael Kennedy for closing remarks.

謝謝各位女士、先生。我現在把電話交回給Michael Kennedy做結語。

I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to us. Thanks, again.

感謝各位今天加入我們。如果你們還有任何進一步問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。再次感謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference, all parties may disconnect. Have a great day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束，各方可以掛線。祝各位有美好的一天。