Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Antero Resources First Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2019 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Michael Kennedy, Senior Vice President of Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我榮幸地向大家介紹主持人，財務資深副總裁麥可‧甘迺迪先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you for joining us for Antero's first quarter 2019 investor conference call.

感謝您參加 Antero 2019 年第一季投資者電話會議。

We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights, and then we'll open it up to Q&A.

我們將花幾分鐘時間回顧財務和營運方面的要點，然後進入問答環節。

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our new website at www.anteroresources.com where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

我還想引導大家訪問我們新網站的主頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們在那裡提供了單獨的收益電話會議演示文稿，我們將在今天的電話會議上進行回顧。

Before we start our comments, I would like to first remind you that during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在我們開始發言之前，我想先提醒各位，在本次電話會議中，Antero 管理階層將發表一些前瞻性聲明。這些聲明是基於我們目前對影響 Antero 未來表現的因素的判斷，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，其中許多風險和不確定性是 Antero 無法控制的。實際結果可能與此類聲明中明示、暗示或預測的內容有重大差異。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議可能還會涉及一些非GAAP財務指標。有關這些措施的重要披露信息，請參閱我們的盈利新聞稿，包括與最可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的有董事長兼執行長保羅·雷迪，以及總裁兼財務長格倫·沃倫。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

現在我將把通話交給保羅。

Thank you, Mike, and thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to provide an update on our firm transportation portfolio, both for natural gas and natural gas liquids, then discuss 2019 operations and round out my comments by providing color on our operational execution during the quarter. Glen will then briefly touch on the implications of the deconsolidation event as a result of the simplification transaction that closed in March and highlight our first quarter financial achievements, including strong realized pricing and further leverage reduction. He will finish with the discussion of Antero's strong position and outlook for the future.

謝謝你，麥克，也謝謝今天所有收聽電話會議的朋友們。在我的演講中，我將介紹我們公司在天然氣和天然氣液體運輸方面的業務組合的最新情況，然後討論 2019 年的營運情況，最後總結我們本季度的營運執行情況。隨後，Glen 將簡要談及 3 月完成的簡化交易導致的取消合併事件的影響，並重點介紹我們第一季的財務成就，包括強勁的已實現定價和進一步的槓桿率降低。他最後將討論安特羅的強大市場地位和未來前景。

Let's begin with the discussion on our firm transportation position, both for natural gas and natural gas liquids. I'll first touch on the natural gas liquids firm transportation given the recent start-up of Mariner East 2.

讓我們先來討論一下我們對天然氣和天然氣液體的運輸立場。鑑於 Mariner East 2 最近投入運營，我將首先談論天然氣液化產品的運輸。

As outlined on Slide 3 titled inflection point in NGL marketing and pricing, we began shipping volumes for the first time in February through our commitment on our Mariner East 2 pipeline, a pipeline that transports NGL volumes from fractionators in Southwest Appalachia to the Marcus Hook facility in Philadelphia for exports into the global markets.

正如題為「NGL 行銷和定價的轉折點」的幻燈片 3 中所述，我們在 2 月首次透過 Mariner East 2 管道開始發貨，該管道將 NGL 從西南阿巴拉契亞的分餾裝置輸送到費城的 Marcus Hook 工廠，然後出口到全球市場。

We have 50,000 barrels a day of propane and butane capacity contracted on the pipeline, which equates to about 1/3 of the available capacity on ME2 today. As the largest shipper on ME2 and with approximately 50% of our NGL production being sold into premium international markets today, we are well positioned to deliver peer-leading NGL price realizations going forward.

我們已與該管道簽訂了每天 5 萬桶丙烷和丁烷的輸送能力合同，這相當於目前 ME2 可用能力的約 1/3。作為 ME2 上最大的出貨商，我們目前約有 50% 的 NGL 產量銷往優質國際市場，因此我們有能力在未來實現同業領先的 NGL 價格。

As you can see from the table on the left-hand side of the page, our NGL realizations increased from 52% of WTI before ME2 was in service in January to an average of 61% of WTI after it came in service. This substantial uplift boosted cash flow by approximately $20 million during the first quarter. This uplift is particularly impressive when you consider that this occurred during a seasonally strong quarter when in-basin pricing is typically strong.

從頁面左側的表格中可以看出，ME2 在 1 月投入使用之前，我們的 NGL 實作量為 WTI 的 52%，投入使用後，平均為 WTI 的 61%。這一顯著增長使第一季的現金流增加了約 2000 萬美元。考慮到這是在季節性強勢季度，盆地內價格通常也比較強勁，因此這一增長尤其令人印象深刻。

As you can see from the swooping arrows on the map in the middle of Slide 3, we exported 29% of our C3+ NGLs in the first quarter but expect to export 50% for the full year as export volumes ramped up to this level through the first quarter.

從幻燈片 3 中間地圖上的箭頭可以看出，我們在第一季出口了 29% 的 C3+ NGL，但預計全年出口量將達到 50%，因為第一季的出口量已經達到了這個水平。

Although the relationship between Mont Belvieu NGL prices and WTI crude prices has disconnected a bit in recent months, we expect our C3+ NGL prices to be approximately $4 per barrel higher on an absolute basis compared to our original guidance back in January. This increase in expected NGL realizations is due to the strength in WTI crude prices and also a strong international demand for NGL products out of Marcus Hook, the terminal there.

儘管近幾個月來蒙特貝爾維尤天然氣凝液價格與西德克薩斯輕質原油價格之間的關係有所脫節，但我們預計，與我們 1 月份的最初指導相比，我們的 C3+ 天然氣凝液價格絕對值將高出每桶約 4 美元。預計 NGL 實現價格的上漲是由於 WTI 原油價格走強，以及國際市場對馬庫斯胡克碼頭 NGL 產品的強勁需求。

In recent months, we have seen significant spreads between international pricing and Mont Belvieu pricing as you can see on Slide 4 titled attractive international spreads. Our meaningful exposure to international NGL prices allowed us to benefit from this spread during the quarter, and we expect that diversification will benefit us throughout the year. This provides yet another example about how our diversified transportation portfolio reduces both pricing and operational risk around any one particular geographic area or pricing index.

近幾個月來，我們看到國際定價與蒙特貝爾維尤定價之間存在顯著的價差，正如您在題為“有吸引力的國際價差”的幻燈片 4 中看到的那樣。我們對國際天然氣凝液價格的顯著敞口使我們能夠在本季從價差中獲益，我們預計多元化將使我們在全年受益。這再次證明，我們多元化的運輸組合能夠降低任何特定地理區域或價格指數的定價和營運風險。

On the ethane front, volumes are expected to pick up slightly with the restart of Mariner East 1 last week. This pipeline had been shut down for the majority of the first quarter. Though we were able to reject this volume and sell the ethane as gas value during the quarter, this resulted in 50 million cubic feet equivalent per day less production during the first quarter on a natural gas equivalent basis. But importantly, we have the flexibility to reject any remaining ethane in the stream above our contracted volumes and volumes required to meet pipeline specifications and sell the ethane at natural gas value to maximize overall profitability and cash flow.

乙烷方面，隨著上週 Mariner East 1 號管道的重啟，預計產量將略有回升。這條輸油管在第一季的大部分時間都處於關閉狀態。雖然我們能夠拒絕這部分乙烷，並在本季將其作為天然氣出售，但這導致第一季天然氣當量日產量減少了 5,000 萬立方英尺。但重要的是，我們可以靈活地拒絕超出合約定量和滿足管道規格要求的剩餘乙烷，並以天然氣價格出售乙烷，從而最大限度地提高整體盈利能力和現金流。

Based on current strip pricing for the remainder of 2019, we intend to continue recovering ethane only at levels necessary to fulfill ethane contracts and meet pipeline specs.

根據 2019 年剩餘時間的當前遠期價格，我們打算繼續只回收乙烷，以履行乙烷合約並滿足管道規格所需的水平。

For the full year of 2019, we expect to recover total ethane volumes in the range of 38,000 to 42,000 barrels a day, down from our previously guided range of 48,000 to 52,000 barrels per day that we set in January of 2019. To the extent that ethane prices improve to levels that support ethane recovery economics, we would elect, of course, to recover additional ethane volumes.

2019 年全年，我們預計乙烷總回收量為每天 38,000 至 42,000 桶，低於我們在 2019 年 1 月設定的每天 48,000 至 52,000 桶的預期範圍。如果乙烷價格上漲到足以支持乙烷回收經濟效益的水平，我們當然會選擇回收更多的乙烷。

Shifting gears to discuss our natural gas firm transportation position and the long-term benefit it provides, I'll direct you to Slide 5 titled firm transportation portfolio is a strategic advantage. With the entirety of our committed firm transport now in service, you can see the significant visibility that our FT portfolio provides us with respect to our long-term development plan.

接下來，我們將討論我們天然氣運輸業務的長期優勢及其帶來的長期益處，請看題為“公司運輸組合是一項戰略優勢”的第 5 張幻燈片。隨著我們所有承諾的固定運輸業務投入運營，您可以看到我們的固定運輸業務組合為我們的長期發展計劃帶來了顯著的可見性。

For 2019, we are forecasting natural gas price realizations at a $0.15 to $0.20 premium to NYMEX and expect to continue realizing premiums to NYMEX in the coming years. Unlike many of our peers that are relying on local basins to remain tight in order to develop their asset base over the long term, we have significant visibility and confidence as it relates to the realized price we will receive due to our transport portfolio to premium markets. This enables us to make longer-term decisions about the business and focus on what creates long-term value for our shareholders.

我們預測 2019 年天然氣實際價格將比 NYMEX 價格高出 0.15 至 0.20 美元，並預計未來幾年將繼續保持高於 NYMEX 價格的溢價。與許多依賴本地盆地資源緊張以長期發展資產基礎的同行不同，我們對透過運輸業務向高端市場輸送貨物所獲得的實際價格具有很強的可見性和信心。這使我們能夠對業務做出更長遠的決策，並專注於為股東創造長期價值的事情。

While we are not fully utilizing the pipelines today, we expect our net marketing expense to decline each subsequent quarter moving forward with the first quarter of 2019 being our peak level. This marketing expense will be virtually eliminated by 2022 when we expect to fill our premium firm transportation. It is important to note that our net marketing expense is offset by our industry-leading hedge position, which will deliver $0.20 per Mcfe in 2019 at strip pricing, along with the benefits that our FT portfolio provides through delivering volumes into premium-priced markets.

雖然我們目前還沒有充分利用現有管道，但我們預計未來每季的淨行銷費用都會下降，2019 年第一季將達到高峰。到 2022 年，隨著我們預期高端公司運輸業務的全面開展，這項行銷費用將基本消除。值得注意的是，我們的淨行銷費用被我們行業領先的對沖頭寸所抵消，這將使我們在 2019 年按現貨價格獲得每千立方英尺當量 0.20 美元的收益，此外，我們的 FT 投資組合通過向高價市場輸送數量而帶來的好處也抵消了我們的淨營銷費用。

Among these premium markets is the Gulf Coast, which is illustrated in purple on the chart indicating our peer-leading 2.1 Bcf a day of capacity into that market. This provides us with tremendous leverage to the growing LNG export market and the NYMEX-based pricing typically associated with long-term LNG supply contracts. We currently supply 630 million cubic feet a day total. And by the end of 2019, we will be supplying 700 million cubic feet a day to LNG facilities for export, making us a top supplier to U.S. LNG markets.

在這些優質市場中，包括墨西哥灣沿岸地區，圖表中以紫色標示，顯示我們在該市場擁有領先同行的 21 億立方英尺/天的產能。這為我們提供了在不斷增長的液化天然氣出口市場以及通常與長期液化天然氣供應合約相關的基於紐約商品交易所的定價方面的巨大優勢。我們目前每天總共供應 6.3 億立方英尺。到 2019 年底，我們將每天向液化天然氣工廠供應 7 億立方英尺用於出口，使我們成為美國液化天然氣市場的主要供應商。

LNG markets are expected to increase by 3.9 Bcf a day in 2019 as illustrated on Slide #6 titled growing LNG market. There are also multiple second wave projects seeking FID this year. Our significant firm transform capacity into the Gulf Coast region provides a tremendous opportunity for us to benefit from this robust growth. We expect our firm transportation portfolio to become increasingly valuable as LNG players look to secure long-term supply agreements with strong counterparties who have confidence in their drilling inventory over multiple decades.

如題為「液化天然氣市場成長」的幻燈片第 6 號所示，預計 2019 年液化天然氣市場將每天成長 39 億立方英尺。今年還有多個第二階段項目正在尋求最終投資決定。我們在墨西哥灣沿岸地區擁有強大的企業轉型能力，這為我們提供了從這一強勁增長中獲益的巨大機會。我們預計，隨著液化天然氣企業尋求與實力雄厚、對未來幾十年鑽井儲備充滿信心的交易對手簽訂長期供應協議，我們的運輸業務組合將變得越來越有價值。

Antero has the production base, the drilling inventory depth and quality, the transport portfolio and the balance sheet to be a very strong player in the LNG supply business.

Antero 擁有生產基地、鑽井庫存深度和品質、運輸組合以及資產負債表，足以成為液化天然氣供應業務中非常強大的參與者。

Now to briefly touch on our 2019 development and capital plan. We placed 23 wells to sales during the first quarter, all on our liquids-rich Marcellus acreage. We drilled 36 wells during the first quarter with an average lateral length of 10,000 feet.

現在簡單介紹一下我們 2019 年的發展和資本計畫。第一季度，我們向市場投放了 23 口油井，全部位於我們富含液體的馬塞勒斯頁岩氣田。第一季我們鑽了 36 口井，平均水平井段長度為 10,000 英尺。

In the second quarter, we plan to place 41 wells to sales, including 23 that were placed to sales in April. This increase in sequential activity from the first quarter to the second quarter with a focus around liquids keep us on track to achieve our full year average production guidance.

第二季度，我們計劃將 41 口油井投入銷售，其中包括 4 月投入銷售的 23 口油井。從第一季到第二季度，業務活動環比增加，重點放在液體產品上，這使我們有望實現全年平均產量目標。

Turning to our capital plan, we recently reduced our rig count and completion crews by 1 each. We now expect to run 4 drilling rigs and 3 completion crews, on average, through the remainder of 2019. As a result of the reduced rig and completion crew count for the remainder of 2019, we expect drilling and completion CapEx in the second and third quarters of 2019 to be in the low $300 million area. Further, we are reducing our full year 2019 CapEx guidance to $1.3 billion to $1.375 billion, the low end of our prior range.

談到我們的資本計劃，我們最近減少了鑽機數量和完井作業人員數量各1人。我們現在預計，在 2019 年剩餘的時間裡，平均將運行 4 個鑽井平台和 3 個完井作業隊。由於 2019 年剩餘時間鑽井平台和完井作業人員數量減少，我們預計 2019 年第二季和第三季的鑽井和完井資本支出將在 3 億美元左右。此外，我們將 2019 年全年資本支出預期下調至 13 億美元至 13.75 億美元，這是我們先前預期範圍的下限。

Before I turn it over to Glen, I'd like to discuss the many positive advancements we are seeing on the operational front. Turning to Slide 7 titled drilling and completion efficiencies continue, I'll jump to the top right quadrant of this page and highlight that we continue to push the average lateral feet drilled per day higher. We drilled an average of 5,300 lateral feet per day in the quarter, the highest quarterly rate in company history, representing a 14% increase in lateral footage performance compared to 2018.

在將發言權交給格倫之前，我想談談我們在營運方面看到的許多積極進展。接下來請看題為「鑽井和完井效率持續提高」的第 7 張投影片，我將跳到該頁的右上象限，重點介紹我們不斷提高每天平均水平鑽井英尺數。本季我們平均每天鑽探 5,300 英尺水平段，這是公司歷史上最高的季度鑽探速度，與 2018 年相比，水平段鑽探效率提高了 14%。

Most impressively, we recently set what we believe to be a world record in the category of drilling lateral feet in 24 hours where we drilled a horizontal well and drilled sideways 9,184 feet in 24 hours on the Antero Hayhurst Unit 2H well, which is in our rich gas play fairway. While we're very proud of the record set here, we're also very pleased with the continued and consistent move higher in average lateral feet drilled per day.

最令人印象深刻的是，我們最近創造了我們認為的世界紀錄，即在 24 小時內鑽探水平井 9,184 英尺。該井位於我們富含天然氣的油氣產區。雖然我們為在這裡創造的紀錄感到非常自豪，但我們也對每天平均橫向移動距離的持續穩定增長感到非常高興。

Completion stages per day in the Marcellus averaged 5.3 stages per day for the first -- for the full quarter, higher than our overall 2018 average. This is a noteworthy number as the first quarter is typically the most challenging from a seasonal standpoint due to winter conditions.

馬塞勒斯頁岩氣田第一季平均每天完成 5.3 個完井階段，高於 2018 年全年平均。這是一個值得注意的數字，因為從季節性角度來看，第一季通常是最具挑戰性的，這主要是由於冬季天氣狀況所致。

Given our full year 2019 budget, which assumes 5.2 stages per day, we feel very good about our continued efficiencies leading to lower well cost throughout the year. An increase of 1 additional stage per day does result in about $200,000 of savings per well. So it's important to us.

根據我們 2019 年全年預算（假設每天 5.2 個階段），我們對持續提高效率、降低全年油井成本感到非常滿意。每天增加一個採油階段，每口井可節省約 20 萬美元。所以這對我們來說很重要。

We continue to be focused on operational efficiencies that will drive well cost lower. The progress that we have exhibited already in 2019 gives us confidence in achieving our full year production targets with spending at the low end of our capital guidance range. We have achieved significant scale and product diversity as the largest NGL producer and the fourth largest natural gas producer, and we have a firm transportation portfolio structured to deliver best-in-class price realizations for our products even in a difficult operating environment. These attributes, combined with our peer-leading core drilling inventory, position us to deliver attractive long-term returns to our shareholders for many years to come.

我們將繼續專注於提高營運效率，從而降低油井成本。我們在 2019 年已經取得的進展使我們有信心在資本支出控制在指導範圍的低端的情況下實現全年生產目標。作為最大的液化天然氣生產商和第四大天然氣生產商，我們已實現了顯著的規模和產品多樣性，並且我們擁有穩固的運輸組合，即使在艱難的經營環境下，也能為我們的產品提供一流的價格實現。這些優勢，再加上我們業界領先的岩心鑽探資源，使我們能夠在未來幾年為股東帶來可觀的長期回報。

With that, I'll turn it over to Glen for his comments.

接下來，我將把發言權交給格倫，請他發表評論。

Thank you, Paul. In my comments today, I will discuss our first quarter financial results, provide additional color on the uplift to our NGL price realizations with the start-up of the ME2 pipeline and conclude with comments around our competitive advantage that we have built through our large-scale liquids inventory, product diversity and exposure to the growing demand markets for both liquids and natural gas. This provides us with multiple ways to win going forward.

謝謝你，保羅。在今天的演講中，我將討論我們第一季的財務業績，進一步闡述隨著 ME2 管道的投產，我們的 NGL 價格實現額的提升，並最後談談我們透過大規模液體庫存、產品多樣性以及對不斷增長的液體和天然氣需求市場的影響而建立的競爭優勢。這為我們未來取得勝利提供了多種途徑。

Before I get into these topics, I did want to provide a reminder that with the closing of the midstream simplification transaction in March, AR will no longer consolidate AM on its GAAP financial statements, but will rather record its interest in AM through the equity method of accounting.

在深入探討這些主題之前，我想提醒大家，隨著 3 月中游業務簡化交易的完成，AR 將不再按照 GAAP 財務報表合併 AM，而是透過權益法會計記錄其在 AM 中的權益。

We are excited about this change as we believe it will provide several benefits. First, it improves the transparency and disclosure for AR on a stand-alone E&P basis. This will enable investors to more easily compare and contrast AR with its peers.

我們對這項改變感到興奮，因為我們相信它將帶來許多好處。首先，它提高了獨立勘探開發業務的AR透明度和資訊揭露。這將使投資者更容易將AR與其同業進行比較和對比。

Importantly, this transition will minimize future inconsistencies among analysts, investors and financial screening services on AR's leverage, EBITDAX, capital and free cash flow, just to name a few, and therefore, significantly simplify the story.

重要的是，這一轉變將最大限度地減少分析師、投資者和金融篩選服務機構未來在 AR 的槓桿率、EBITDAX、資本和自由現金流等方面的不一致之處，從而大大簡化情況。

As you can see on Slide #8, our consolidated -- deconsolidated metrics are extremely attractive with leverage at 2.1x and our enterprise value to EBITDAX at just 2.8x on a hedged basis. Since the transaction closed mid-quarter, our first quarter 2019 financial statements still included consolidation up through the closing date on March 12. However, all subsequent quarters will treat the Antero Midstream ownership through the equity method of accounting.

如您在投影片 8 中看到的，我們的合併-非合併指標極具吸引力，槓桿率為 2.1 倍，對沖後的企業價值與 EBITDAX 之比僅為 2.8 倍。由於該交易在季度中期完成，我們的 2019 年第一季財務報表仍包含了截至 3 月 12 日交易完成日期的合併數據。然而，所有後續季度都將採用權益法會計處理 Antero Midstream 的所有權。

Now moving on to the first quarter results. During the quarter, net production averaged 3.1 Bcfe per day, delivering 30% year-over-year growth, including 148,000 barrels a day of liquids.

接下來來看第一季業績。本季淨產量平均為每天 31 億立方英尺當量，年增 30%，其中包括每天 14.8 萬桶液體。

Liquids production increased 44% year-over-year, reflecting a continued emphasis on developing our liquids-rich acreage. Net liquids production include over 11,000 barrels a day of oil, approximately 98,000 barrels a day of C3+ NGLs and 39,000 barrels a day of ethane.

液體產量年增 44%，反映出我們持續重視開發富含液體的油田。淨液體產量包括每天超過 11,000 桶的石油、每天約 98,000 桶的 C3+ 天然氣凝析液和每天 39,000 桶的乙烷。

During the first quarter, Antero's realized natural gas price was $3.30 per Mcf before hedges, representing a $0.15 per Mcf premium to the average NYMEX Henry Hub price.

第一季度，Antero 的天然氣實際價格在避險前為每千立方英尺 3.30 美元，比 NYMEX Henry Hub 的平均價格溢價每千立方英尺 0.15 美元。

We expect to continue delivering peer-leading natural gas price realizations in 2019 as reflected in our 2019 guidance for natural gas realizations before hedges at a $0.15 to $0.20 per Mcf premium to Henry Hub.

我們預計 2019 年將繼續提供同業領先的天然氣價格實現，正如我們在 2019 年對沖前天然氣價格實現的預期中所述，比亨利樞紐天然氣價格溢價 0.15 至 0.20 美元/千立方英尺。

Our natural gas portfolio -- hedge portfolio, as shown on Slide #9, protects 100% of 2019 and 55% to 60% of 2020 targeted natural gas production with an average floor of $3 per MMBtu. It is notable that we remain the only publicly traded U.S. producer that is 100% hedged on expected natural gas production in 2019 with an average floor of $2.77 per MMBtu for the remainder of 2019, the last 3 quarters of 2019.

如投影片 9 所示，我們的天然氣投資組合－對沖投資組合，可保護 2019 年 100% 的目標天然氣產量和 2020 年 55% 至 60% 的目標天然氣產量，平均最低價格為每百萬英熱單位 3 美元。值得注意的是，我們仍然是唯一一家對 2019 年預期天然氣產量進行 100% 對沖的美國上市生產商，2019 年剩餘時間（即 2019 年最後三個季度）的平均最低價格為每百萬英熱單位 2.77 美元。

Moving on to liquids pricing during the quarter. As Paul discussed, the first quarter of 2019 was an important inflection point for Antero Resources as the Mariner East 2 pipeline went into service on January 29, giving us access to premium-priced global LPG prices during February and March. We hold about 1/3 of the current 150,000 barrels a day of throughput on ME2 through our 50,000-barrel a day commitment, making us the largest shipper on the pipeline.

接下來談談本季液體價格。正如保羅所討論的那樣，2019 年第一季是 Antero Resources 的一個重要轉折點，因為 Mariner East 2 管道於 1 月 29 日投入使用，使我們能夠在 2 月和 3 月獲得高價的全球液化石油氣價格。我們透過每天 5 萬桶的承諾，佔據了 ME2 管道目前每天 15 萬桶吞吐量的約 1/3，這使我們成為該管道上最大的托運商。

We realized an unhedged average C3+ price of $31.63 per barrel for the quarter, an increase over the prior period despite softness in Mont Belvieu benchmark prices. Further, our average realized C3+ NGL price during February and March once ME2 was in service increased to $34.70 per barrel, representing 61% of WTI prices. We actually received a $0.17 per gallon premium to Mont Belvieu prices at Marcus Hook for propane and butane that was exported in February and March, that is illustrated once again back on Slide #3.

本季未對沖的平均 C3+ 價格為每桶 31.63 美元，儘管 Mont Belvieu 基準價格疲軟，但仍比上一季有所成長。此外，ME2投入使用後，2月和3月期間我們的平均C3+ NGL實現價格上漲至每桶34.70美元，相當於WTI價格的61%。2 月和 3 月，我們在 Marcus Hook 出口的丙烷和丁烷實際上比 Mont Belvieu 的價格每加侖溢價 0.17 美元，這在第 3 張幻燈片中再次有所體現。

We expect our realized NGL prices to strengthen on a relative basis to Mont Belvieu with ME2 now in service. Although domestic NGL prices did not fully participate in the rally seen in crude oil prices in recent months, international pricing has remained strong. Our significant volumes in ME2 give us the highest exposure to international LPG markets, which positions us to deliver peer-leading NGL price realizations going forward. Further, the approximately 150,000-barrel a day flowing on ME2 evacuates almost 40% of the basin's NGL production, which is already and is expected to continue to improve in-basin domestic-related pricing where we sell about 50% of our overall C3+ NGL volumes today.

我們預計隨著 ME2 投入使用，我們的實際 NGL 價格相對於 Mont Belvieu 的價格將有所走強。儘管近幾個月來國內天然氣凝液價格並未完全參與原油價格的上漲行情，但國際價格仍強勁。我們在 ME2 的大量交易量使我們對國際液化石油氣市場擁有最高的參與度，這使我們能夠在未來提供同業領先的天然氣凝液價格。此外，ME2 每天約 15 萬桶的流量輸送了盆地近 40% 的 NGL 產量，這已經並將繼續改善盆地內國內相關定價，我們目前銷售的 C3+ NGL 總量的約 50% 都來自國內市場。

Moving on to Slide #10 titled deleveraging through commodity price volatility. Our balance sheet is in the strongest position in our company's history. We have reduced absolute debt by over $800 million over the last few years, lowering leverage to 2.1x as of March 31. During the first quarter, we reduced borrowings by $360 million, resulting in only $50 million drawn on our $2.5 billion credit facility. This was achieved with proceeds from the midstream simplification process and the remainder from $68 million of free cash flow generated during the first quarter.

接下來是第 10 張投影片，標題為「透過商品價格波動去槓桿化」。我們的資產負債表處於公司史上最強勁的時期。過去幾年，我們已將絕對債務減少了 8 億美元以上，截至 3 月 31 日，槓桿率降至 2.1 倍。第一季度，我們減少了 3.6 億美元的借款，因此我們 25 億美元的信貸額度中只動用了 5,000 萬美元。這是透過中游簡化流程的收益以及第一季產生的 6,800 萬美元自由現金流的剩餘部分實現的。

Our borrowing base was reaffirmed at $4.5 billion during the spring redetermination with unchanged commitments at $2.5 billion. This highlights the strength of our asset base and the depth and resilience of our drilling inventory.

在春季重新評估中，我們的借款基礎被確認為 45 億美元，承諾金額保持不變，為 25 億美元。這凸顯了我們資產基礎的實力以及鑽井資源的深度和韌性。

Before turning the call over to questions, I would like to comment on our current competitive positioning and outlook for the next several years. We have built our business to excel in an ever-changing macro backdrop. We are seeing this play out in our cash flow generated and projections looking ahead. Despite a reduction in natural gas prices throughout the year to the $2.50-ish spot levels we see today and historically low Mont Belvieu NGL prices relative to WTI pricing, our material exposure to the international NGL markets has provided a valuable offset that enables us to maintain our production growth targets while also spending within projected cash flow.

在將電話轉入問答環節之前，我想談談我們目前的競爭地位以及未來幾年的前景。我們已將業務模式調整為能夠在不斷變化的宏觀環境中脫穎而出。我們已經從產生的現金流和未來的預測中看到了這一點。儘管天然氣價格全年持續下跌，目前現貨價格約為 2.50 美元，而 Mont Belvieu NGL 價格相對於 WTI 價格也處於歷史低位，但我們對國際 NGL 市場的大量投資提供了寶貴的抵消作用，使我們能夠在預計現金流範圍內維持產量增長目標。

Looking ahead, we continue to target at least 10% growth in production while spending within cash flow as demonstrated on Slide #11 titled attractive growth outlook with disciplined spending. We expect to deliver this growth in 2020 and beyond with modest capital increases that correspond to our increasing cash flow.

展望未來，我們將繼續以至少 10% 的產量成長為目標，同時在現金流範圍內支出，正如題為「有吸引力的成長前景和有紀律的支出」的第 11 張幻燈片所示。我們預計在 2020 年及以後，透過與不斷增長的現金流相對應的適度增資，實現這一增長。

Slide #12 titled maintenance capital and decline rate projections provides further detail on our future capital spend needed to keep production flat. That's not to say that we would do that. As we previously disclosed, 2019 maintenance CapEx is $840 million with a remaining $460 million-plus of capital spend supporting our 10% growth in 2020. As shown on the chart on the left-hand side of the slide, our base decline rate continues to move lower each subsequent year as does our maintenance CapEx, assuming flat 3.2 Bcf a day of production. This simply illustrates that maintenance capital is a function of base decline rate, which is, in turn, a function of production growth over the previous 12 months. And you can see our base decline in the appendix, there's a slide there.

第 12 張投影片標題為“維護資本和下降率預測”，提供了有關我們為維持產量穩定所需的未來資本支出的更多詳細資訊。但這並不意味著我們會那麼做。正如我們之前所揭露的那樣，2019 年的維護資本支出為 8.4 億美元，剩餘的 4.6 億美元以上的資本支出將支持我們 2020 年 10% 的成長。如投影片左側圖表所示，假設日產量維持在 32 億立方英尺，我們的基本下降率和維護資本支出將逐年下降。這簡單說明維護資本是基準下降率的函數，而基準下降率又是過去 12 個月生產成長的函數。您可以在附錄中看到我們的基數下降情況，那裡有一張幻燈片。

In summary, please turn to the Summary Slide #13. We're in the best operational and financial position in our company history. We remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet, reflected by our debt reduction both on an absolute basis and relative basis with leverage down to 2.1x during the quarter. We have significant scale and product diversity as the largest NGL producer and the fourth largest natural gas producer in the U.S.

總之，請翻到總結投影片第 13 頁。我們目前處於公司歷史上最佳的營運和財務狀況。我們將繼續專注於維持強勁的資產負債表，這體現在我們債務的絕對值和相對值均有所下降，本季槓桿率降至 2.1 倍。作為美國最大的液化天然氣生產商和第四大天然氣生產商，我們擁有顯著的規模和產品多樣性。

The natural gas firm transportation portfolio that we've built allows us to sell into premium markets in the Midwest and on the Gulf Coast with very minimal exposure to local pricing. Our 2.1 Bcf a day of firm transport to the Gulf Coast gives us the largest exposure to growing LNG export demand where we are among the largest suppliers at 700 million a day by year-end this year.

我們建立的天然氣運輸業務組合使我們能夠向中西部和墨西哥灣沿岸的高端市場銷售產品，同時最大限度地減少受當地價格的影響。我們每天向墨西哥灣沿岸地區穩定運輸 21 億立方英尺天然氣，這使我們能夠最大程度地受益於不斷增長的液化天然氣出口需求，到今年年底，我們將成為最大的供應商之一，日產量達到 7 億立方英尺。

On the liquids side, we expect to sell 50% of our NGLs into the global markets in 2019, diversifying our liquids pricing exposure and providing yet another link to premium price realizations.

在液體產品方面，我們預計 2019 年將 50% 的 NGL 銷往全球市場，分散我們的液體產品定價風險，並為溢價實現提供另一個途徑。

In short, we have built a business with many ways to win under changing market conditions.

簡而言之，我們建立了一種能夠在不斷變化的市場環境中透過多種方式取得成功的企業模式。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我將把電話轉交給接線員，回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jane Trotsenko with Stifel.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jane Trotsenko 系列。

My first question is on NGL fundamentals. I'm curious if you could share your thoughts on the Mont Belvieu pricing outlook and maybe on international demand and how it's going to evolve during 2019?

我的第一個問題是關於天然氣液化（NGL）基礎知識的。我很想知道您能否分享一下您對蒙特貝爾維尤葡萄酒價格前景的看法，以及您對國際需求的看法，以及它在 2019 年將如何發展？

Yes. Jane, let me turn the call over to Dave Cannelongo, our Vice President of NGLs and International Markets.

是的。簡，我把電話轉給我們的液化天然氣和國際市場副總裁戴夫·坎內隆戈。

Yes, Jane. We saw a fair amount of weakness in Mont Belvieu in the first quarter as a result of some of the challenges they had with fog that they see down there seasonally as well as a fire that occurred at the ITC terminal on the Houston Ship Channel. But in addition to that, we've started to see a limit on the amount of production that's able to get out of the caverns to the water, and that is really dependent on some expansions of terminals there. There are a couple of projects in the third quarter for a few of the midstream players down there that will increase their ability to access those markets. And so at that point in time, we would see some support from Mont Belvieu pricing coming on then.

是的，簡。第一季度，由於蒙特貝爾維尤地區季節性霧霾天氣帶來的挑戰，以及休士頓航道 ITC 碼頭發生的火災，該地區的經濟出現了相當大的疲軟。但除此之外，我們已經開始看到能夠從洞穴輸送到水中的生產量有限制，而這實際上取決於那裡的一些終端的擴建。第三季度，一些中游企業將啟動幾個項目，這將提高他們進入這些市場的能力。因此，在那個時候，我們會看到蒙特貝爾維尤的價格出現一些支撐。

We do continue to see growth internationally in the petrochemical market, in particular, in Asia, although there are a couple of PDH projects slated for Northwest Europe. And growing res/com demand coming from Southeast Asia as well as India that has been in support of the international pricing. So all those things wind up together to allow us to have a very strong winter and spring so far on Mariner East 2.

我們確實看到國際石化市場持續成長，尤其是在亞洲，儘管西北歐也計劃建造幾個 PDH 項目。來自東南亞和印度的住宅/商業需求不斷增長，這對國際定價起到了支撐作用。所以所有這些因素加在一起，使得 Mariner East 2 到目前為止在冬季和春季都表現得非常出色。

Got it. So it would be fair to say that you would see that -- you expect to see NGL fundamentals to improve from this point on in terms of domestic NGL pricing, I would say, right?

知道了。因此，可以公平地說，你會看到——你預計從現在開始，國內天然氣液價格的基本面將會改善，對吧？

We do. And in particular I'd want to mention as well the ethane market just with some of the new petrochemical facilities that are coming online here as we speak and 3 additional ones later this year that will significantly improve the demand for ethane down the Gulf Coast complex.

是的。我還想特別提一下乙烷市場，因為就在我們說話的時候，一些新的石化設施正在這裡投產，今年稍後還將有 3 個設施投產，這將大大提高墨西哥灣沿岸地區對乙烷的需求。

Okay. Got it. My second question is on Ohio Utica. Could you please remind us how you view this asset in terms of capital allocation and in terms of production trajectory going forward?

好的。知道了。我的第二個問題是關於俄亥俄州尤蒂卡市的。請您提醒我們一下，您如何看待這項資產在資本配置和未來生產軌跡的情況？

Yes. We like our Ohio Utica project, both on the rich side, as NGLs have gotten stronger, our rich gas trend has become more economic and also in the dry gas areas where we have accumulated acreage in very good reservoir quality areas. So we like the project quite well, but it still doesn't compete with Marcellus and so that is our focus, that still the Marcellus economics are better. Therefore, our capital is almost 100% dedicated to the Marcellus at this time, but very much like the Utica still.

是的。我們很喜歡我們在俄亥俄州尤蒂卡的項目，無論是在富氣區（隨著天然氣凝液的增多，我們的富氣趨勢變得更有經濟效益），還是在乾氣區（我們在儲層質量非常好的地區積累了土地）。所以我們很喜歡這個項目，但它仍然無法與馬塞勒斯頁岩氣競爭，因此我們的重點仍然是馬塞勒斯頁岩氣的經濟效益更好。因此，目前我們的資金幾乎 100% 都投入了馬塞勒斯頁岩氣田，但仍然非常像尤蒂卡頁岩氣田。

Okay. But should we think about Utica as kind of flat for the production trajectory or will it be declining?

好的。但是，我們應該認為尤蒂卡的產量軌跡是趨於平穩，還是會下降呢？

It'll probably be flattish, I would say, that we drill a half a pad or a full pad every year. And so that can keep production flat.

我覺得地勢應該比較平坦，我們每年鑽半個或一個地基就夠了。這樣就能保持產量穩定。

Our next question comes from the line of Holly Stewart with Scotia Howard Weil.

我們的下一個問題來自霍莉·史都華和史考蒂亞·霍華德·威爾的後代。

Maybe just, first, let's start off on the sort of production guidance wedge, I would call it, the 10% at $50 and $2.85, and then 15% at $65 and $3.15. I know you guys are noting in the slides like likely somewhere in between just given the markets. I think probably until this week, we would have thought that crude would be at the high end and gas at the low. So maybe, Glen, could you just make some comments around if this scenario were to play out, sort of how you guys are thinking about that wedge and sort of the production going forward?

或許，首先讓我們從我稱之為生產指導楔形的楔形開始，10% 的楔形是 50 美元和 2.85 美元，然後是 15% 的楔形是 65 美元和 3.15 美元。我知道你們在投影片中指出，考慮到市場狀況，最終結果可能介於兩者之間。我想，直到本週之前，我們可能都會認為原油價格會處於高位，而天然氣價格會處於低位。那麼，格倫，你能否就這種情況發表一些看法，例如你們是如何考慮這個楔形區域以及未來的生產計劃的？

Well, as Dave mentioned, I think we feel really good about the NGL markets and think that, that's going to continue to strengthen and so that makes up for softness in gas in the near term. We still are firm believers in gas over the medium and longer term. We just need to get through this shoulder season and see how the injections look through the summertime and see what kind of summer weather we have as well. But we're still on that 10% growth line for now. We're not -- you don't see us accelerating capital just due to oil prices and NGL prices being higher. We're very comfortable in that 10% line for now and we'll evaluate that really every quarter as we go forward, Holly.

正如戴夫所提到的，我們對天然氣凝液市場感覺非常好，並認為它會繼續走強，因此這可以彌補近期天然氣市場的疲軟。我們仍然堅信天然氣在中長期內會繼續保持成長勢頭。我們只需要熬過這個過渡季節，看看夏季注射的效果如何，以及夏季的天氣狀況如何。但目前我們仍保持著10%的成長速度。我們並沒有——你不會看到我們僅僅因為油價和天然氣凝液價格上漲就加速資本投入。霍莉，目前我們對 10% 這個比例非常滿意，接下來每季我們都會對此進行評估。

Okay. That's great. And then maybe I thought Slide 19 did a good job of just the waterfall of well cost in the Marcellus. Could you just maybe provide a little bit of color around the inflation that you have seen and then some of those renegotiated completion contracts?

好的。那太棒了。然後，我可能覺得第 19 張幻燈片很好地展示了馬塞勒斯頁岩氣井成本的瀑布式增長。您能否就您所看到的通貨膨脹情況以及一些重新談判的完工合同，做一些詳細的說明？

Yes. We do see certainly pressure. We do a lot of water hauling, of course, from the well sites, both flowback water and produced water. And so there's -- there has been pressure on trucking cost, especially driver cost, but we've been able to trim back and use fewer trucks as we've gotten more efficient in call-outs and so on. So yes, there is some pressure there.

是的。我們確實感受到了壓力。當然，我們經常從井場運水，包括返排水和採出水。因此，卡車運輸成本，尤其是司機成本，一直面臨著壓力，但隨著我們在出勤等方面效率的提高，我們已經能夠縮減開支，減少卡車的使用。所以，是的，確實存在一些壓力。

But on the other hand, the renegotiation of certain contracts like the self-sourcing have been very beneficial. Right now, we are self-sourcing at least 70%, approaching 80% of our sand needs for this year, it's working out quite well. We're contracted with suppliers that can actually barge up the Ohio River, which is quite a cost savings from -- railing from the traditional Northern White trends, we saved quite a bit there. And we have staging facilities on the Ohio River right next to our acreage we do have in case that there are ice dams and so on, on the Ohio. In the winter, we do have quite a good amount of sand set aside to fall on if there are any logistical hitches. So that has really reduced our sand cost, which are significant by about 1/3 so far and expect to see that translate through. So I'm talking about not only the sand itself, but the last mile. So we're getting those costs down. Those add up to several hundred thousand dollars per well.

但另一方面，對某些合約（如自主採購合約）的重新談判是非常有益的。目前，我們今年至少有 70% 的沙子需求可以自行採購，接近 80%，效果相當不錯。我們與能夠沿俄亥俄河進行駁船運輸的供應商簽訂了合同，這比傳統的北方白潮流節省了不少成本，我們在這方面節省了不少錢。我們在俄亥俄河畔，緊鄰我們的土地，設有集結設施，以應對俄亥俄河上可能出現的冰壩等情況。冬天，我們預留了相當多的沙子，以備不時之需，以防任何後勤上的問題。因此，這確實降低了我們的沙子成本，到目前為止已經顯著降低了約三分之一，預計這一降幅還會繼續擴大。所以我說的不僅是沙子本身，還有最後一哩路。所以我們正在努力降低這些成本。每口井加起來要花幾十萬美元。

So seeing those efficiencies with bigger pads, as you know, we can get off more stages a day just to the logistics on the pad. So a lot of efficiencies that are helping to bring our well costs down.

所以，如你所知，更大的墊子能帶來更高的效率，只要透過墊子上的物流，我們一天就能完成更多的舞台搭建。因此，許多提高效率的措施都有助於降低我們的油井成本。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Subash Chandra with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自古根漢合夥公司的蘇巴什·錢德拉。

Curious, a couple of things. The drop in the rig in the Marcellus through the balance of the year, is that something you could continue through 2020 while keeping the 10% CAGR? Or do you anticipate bringing activity levels back up next year?

有幾件事挺奇怪的。今年剩餘時間內馬塞勒斯頁岩氣鑽井數量的下降，能否在2020年持續維持10%的複合年增長率？或者您預計明年活動水平會恢復到之前的水平？

We expect to have a similar number of completions next year but with a bit longer laterals on the completion front and probably drill a few more wells as well as we grow next year. So we expect to spend a little bit more capital next year but not much. So I don't know, I'm not sure it's a full rig but at least a half a rig more probably.

我們預計明年完井數量將與去年相近，但完井水平段會更長一些，而且隨著明年業務的成長，我們可能還會鑽幾口新井。因此，我們預計明年會稍微增加一些資金投入，但不會太多。所以我不知道，我不確定是不是一套完整的設備，但至少可能是半套設備。

Okay. Is there an update, I think, Paul, you were mentioning anecdotally a number of places you're achieving cost savings. Is there a way to sort of phrase that? $1 per foot or maybe some $1 per foot exit forecast for this year?

好的。保羅，請問有什麼最新進展嗎？我想，你之前曾提到一些地方實現了成本節約。有沒有比較委婉的說法？每英尺1美元，或者說今年每英尺1美元的退出預測？

Well, you can see on Slide 19, Subash, that, that quantifies on $1 per foot going from $0.95 million per thousand feet of lateral down to $0.93 million, so obviously that's just around a 2% reduction. We continue to work on that to try and get it lower. It would be great as a target to get into the high $0.8 million. So we'll see where it goes.

好的，Subash，你可以看到第 19 張投影片，這意味著每英尺 1 美元的成本從每千英尺水平管道 0.95 億美元降至 0.93 億美元，顯然降幅只有 2% 左右。我們正在繼續努力，爭取把它降下來。如果能達到 80 萬美元以上，那就太好了。所以，我們拭目以待。

Naturally, the reason we drop the rig in part is that we're just getting so much more efficient, so much faster as we highlighted in our comments on average. And the average lateral feet per day as well as the record setters, not only did we have the recent one above 9,000 feet, but we're drilling a number of them that are in the 7,000 and 8,000 feet per day. And so with that, you can accomplish that much more with much less drilling time. So yes, that would be our target. And if we're going to achieve at least 2% or so on that per-footage cost, where will it go from there? Well, we keep striving for 2s and 3s and 4 percents as we go forward. It's not over yet.

當然，我們放棄這種做法的部分原因是，正如我們在評論中所強調的那樣，我們的效率更高，速度也更快。平均每天橫向移動英尺數以及創紀錄的井，不僅最近有井的橫向移動英尺數超過 9000 英尺，而且我們正在鑽探的井的橫向移動英尺數也達到了每天 7000 英尺到 8000 英尺。因此，這樣一來，你就可以用更少的鑽孔時間完成更多的工作。是的，那就是我們的目標。如果我們能將每平方英尺的成本降低至少 2% 左右，那麼接下來會怎麼樣呢？嗯，我們將繼續努力，爭取達到 2%、3% 甚至 4% 的水平。還沒結束。

Yes. Right. Yes. I wasn't clear if Slide 19 was updated for the CapEx reduction that you talked about in the quarter.

是的。正確的。是的。我不清楚第 19 頁投影片是否已根據您在本季度提到的資本支出削減情況進行了更新。

Yes, it is.

是的。

Yes. Got it. And then the slide on drilling -- D&C efficiencies. Slide 7 shows Utica results. Is there Utica activity underway?

是的。知道了。然後是關於鑽井的幻燈片——鑽井和完井效率。第 7 張投影片顯示了尤蒂卡的結果。尤蒂卡地區目前有活動嗎？

Subash, this is Mike. We do not have a drilling rig in the Utica, but we did have one completion crew there for part of the first quarter where we completed 1 pad. But there's no further activity throughout 2019.

Subash，我是Mike。我們在尤蒂卡地區沒有鑽井平台，但在第一季的一部分時間裡，我們派了一個完井隊在那裡完成了一個井場。但2019年全年沒有進一步的活動。

Okay. Got it. And a final one. Just philosophically, where you stand on your plans for AM and using that as a source of funds?

好的。知道了。最後一個。從理念上講，您對AM的計劃以及將其作為資金來源的設想持何立場？

Well, it's -- AM is obviously a great asset for AR and we'll just see how that checks out over time. We expect to see a lot of value improvement, price improvement at AM as it seasons here and gets added to some indices over the next few months. So very optimistic there, but no direct plans to do anything with that position at this point.

嗯，AM顯然是AR的一大優勢，我們拭目以待，看看時間會如何證明這一點。我們預計，隨著AM股票在未來幾個月逐漸成熟並納入一些指數，其價值和價格將大幅提升。所以對此非常樂觀，但目前還沒有針對該職位採取任何具體行動的計劃。

Our next question is a follow-up from Jane Trotsenko with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題是來自 Stifel 的 Jane Trotsenko 的後續問題。

I have a natural gas macro question that I need to ask. I'm curious if you are seeing lower activity levels from private investments in the Marcellus given where natural gas prices are. Or do you think like we need to stay in that $2.50 range for a little bit longer to see the privates come back?

我有一個關於天然氣宏觀經濟的問題需要請教。鑑於目前的天然氣價格，我很好奇您是否注意到馬塞勒斯頁岩氣田的私人投資活動有所減少。還是你認為我們需要讓價格在 2.50 美元左右再維持一段時間，才能看到私人客戶回歸？

I'm sorry, could you repeat that? Are you asking whether or not the private equity-backed activity has slowed down or...

不好意思，你能再說一次嗎？您是在問私募股權支持的投資活動是否放緩，還是…

Exactly.

確切地。

Yes. Yes. We're not seeing a lot of slowing yet, I think that's something that we will see over the next year whether that's Haynesville or Utica, Marcellus. So the privates have continued to be fairly active. And I think the last time we looked at it, the private equity-backed portfolio of companies, they constituted maybe 40% of the rigs running in the -- on the gas side. And I think sometimes they are not under the same scrutiny as public companies and are probably drilling for other reasons than just direct well economics in some of these areas. So I think that would be a healthy development to see the private scale back on their drilling activity and completion activity, of course, in the dry gas plays.

是的。是的。我們目前還沒有看到很多放緩的跡象，我認為在未來一年裡，無論是海恩斯維爾、尤蒂卡還是馬塞勒斯，我們都會看到這種情況。因此，私人武裝力量仍然相當活躍。我認為上次我們觀察時，私募股權支持的公司投資組合可能佔天然氣領域鑽井平台總數的 40%。而且我認為，在某些地區，它們不像上市公司那樣受到同樣的審查，而且它們的鑽探原因可能不僅僅是直接的油井經濟效益。所以我認為，看到私人企業縮減在乾氣區的鑽井活動和完井活動，當然是健康的趨勢。

But you don't see it just yet, right? It seems to me like we need to see this weakness for a little bit longer before it translates into more activity levels for privates, right?

但你現在還沒看到，對吧？我覺得我們需要再觀察一段時間這種疲軟態勢，才能將其轉化為私立學校更高的活躍度，對嗎？

Price should drive that decision making over time, you're right. But it's hard to predict.

你說得對，價格最終會成為決策的主要驅動因素。但很難預測。

Okay. Okay. Got it. And I wanted to ask a question, a follow-up. Obviously, you're making great progress in terms of capital efficiency and dropping rig without changing -- you're reducing the CapEx to the low end of the guidance without changing production outlook. I'm just curious, are there certain read-throughs from those efficiencies through 2020, let's say, CapEx might not be as high as expected or something in that type of direction?

好的。好的。知道了。我想問一個問題，一個後續問題。顯然，你們在資本效率方面取得了巨大進步，並且在不改變生產前景的情況下減少了鑽井設備——你們在不改變生產前景的情況下將資本支出降低到了指導範圍的低端。我只是好奇，這些效率的提高是否會對 2020 年產生某些影響，比如說，資本支出可能不會像預期的那麼高，或者類似這樣的情況？

I think that's certainly possible. We think the inflation is a nonissue today with services in our space, so that's good news. We think that's really been tamped down. The only inflation we've seen, as Paul mentioned, that sort of continued through last year, was just the rates charged to incentivize truck drivers to move water, oil, you name it. But I think that's leveled out now and activity is flat to down in Appalachia so that's all good news there. And the efficiencies are still running, as you heard. To get up to 5,300 feet a day on average on the lateral in the first quarter, that's great progress. So you need fewer and fewer rigs to generate the number of spuds that you want to get going each quarter.

我認為這當然有可能。我們認為，就我們這個領域的服務而言，通貨膨脹目前不是問題，所以這是個好消息。我們認為這種情況確實已經得到了有效控制。正如保羅所提到的那樣，我們看到的唯一一種通貨膨脹，而且這種通貨膨脹一直持續到去年，就是為了激勵卡車司機運輸水、石油等等而收取的費用。但我認為現在情況已經趨於穩定，阿巴拉契亞地區的經濟活動趨於平穩甚至下降，所以這都是好消息。正如你所聽到的，這些效率提升措施仍在持續。在第一季度，平均每天橫向移動 5300 英尺，這是一個巨大的進步。因此，為了達到每季所需的馬鈴薯產量，你需要的鑽孔機數量會越來越少。

And then on the completion side, we think there's still lots of upside in terms of stages per day. And we saw a little over 5 stages a day in the first quarter, which, as we said, is normally a fairly slow quarter due to winter logistics and we didn't really have much problem with that this time. So we expect that to pick up throughout the year and into next year and maybe a good target is to get up to 8 stages a day or so here over the next year or 2. So we still see lots of room for improvement there on the efficiency side.

在完工方面，我們認為每天的完工階段數還有很大的提升空間。第一季我們平均每天有 5 個多賽段，正如我們所說，由於冬季物流的原因，第一季通常是比較慢的，但這次我們並沒有遇到任何問題。所以我們預計這種情況會在今年全年以及明年有所改善，也許一個好的目標是在未來一兩年內達到每天8個賽段左右。因此，我們認為在效率方面還有很大的提升空間。

Do you see laterals getting longer year-over-year? And then in terms of proppant loadings, is it going to change next year?

你覺得橫向枝條的長度逐年增加嗎？那麼，就支撐劑用量而言，明年會改變嗎？

Yes. We have such a strong inventory that we have our program planned out for the next 5 or 6 years in terms of which specific laterals, which specific units we are going to drill and they do get longer year-by-year, how much per year. If they're averaging 11,000 to 12,000 this year, they get out into the mid- to high 13,000s over the next several years. But we have just found that it's more efficient in terms of cycle time and so on to -- that's a sweet spot in the 13,000-, 14,000-foot range. A little longer than that and there's just such delays in completing the wells. So we're happy with that. And what was the second part of your question again, Jane, sorry?

是的。我們擁有如此強大的庫存，以至於我們已經規劃好了未來 5 到 6 年的計劃，包括我們將要鑽探的具體水平井和具體單元，而且這些井的開採量逐年增加，每年的開採量也增加。如果他們今年的平均產量為 11,000 至 12,000，那麼在未來幾年內，產量將達到 13,000 多到 13,000 多。但我們發現，就週期時間等而言，它的效率更高——這是 13,000 到 14,000 英尺範圍內的最佳點。如果時間再長一點，油井的完工就會出現很大的延誤。我們對此很滿意。簡，不好意思，你問題的第二部分是什麼來著？

Proppant intensity. How much proppant you guys are using? Is it going to change? Or is it going to remain the same?

支撐劑強度。你們用了多少支撐劑？情況會改變嗎？還是會維持不變？

It will probably remain the same. We feel good about 2,000s in some of our step-out areas. We sometimes go to 2,500 pounds per foot. But generally, we're happy in that scenario of 2,000 pounds per foot. Every now and again, we do 1,750 pilots to check that out. And so we continue to learn, but I'd say it has mostly stabilized around 2,000 pounds per foot.

情況可能保持不變。我們對一些重點區域的 2000 人左右的表現感到滿意。我們有時會用到每英尺 2500 磅的重量。但總的來說，我們對每英尺 2000 磅的重量感到滿意。我們不時會進行 1750 次試飛來檢驗這一點。因此我們仍在不斷學習，但我認為它基本上穩定在每英尺 2000 磅左右。

That's very helpful. And the last question, if I may, on M&A, if you have like any general comments about M&A activity in the basin.

那很有幫助。最後一個問題，如果可以的話，關於併購，您對盆地內的併購活動有什麼總體看法嗎？

Yes. We do think you'll continue to see some consolidation over time in the basin, but not hearing a whole lot of activity right now. I think there'll probably be some asset situations, maybe private equity-backed first. But we keep an eye on that as well. Yes.

是的。我們認為隨著時間的推移，盆地內會繼續出現一些整合，但目前還沒有聽到太多相關的活動。我認為可能會出現一些資產處置情況，或許會先由私募股權公司支持。但我們也會密切注意這一點。是的。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Kennedy for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將發言權交還給甘迺迪先生，請他作總結發言。

Thank you for joining us on the call today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to us. Thanks, again.

感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。如果您還有其他疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。再次感謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。