Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions).

下午好，歡迎參加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）。

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

本次電話會議期間發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義內的前瞻性陳述。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的資訊或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。請參閱公司最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的有關前瞻性陳述和風險因素部分的信息，以了解有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息。

In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

此外，有關本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則措施的調節以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益發布和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co 的董事長兼首席執行官 J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.。加拉格爾先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you very much, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter '23 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO, as well as the heads of our operating divisions.

非常感謝大家，大家午安。感謝您參加我們 23 年第四季的財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的財務長 Doug Howell 以及我們營運部門的負責人。

We had a strong fourth quarter to wrap up another fantastic year. All measures were right in line with what we said during our December IR day. For our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 20% growth in revenue, headline 8.1% organic growth, but that's more like 9.4% controlling for the 606 accounting and large life case timing. We also had a terrific merger and acquisition quarter. We completed 14 mergers totaling $410 million of estimated annualized revenue. GAAP earnings per share of $0.30 and net earnings margin of 2.8% were impacted by the counterintuitive earn-out payable accounting that Doug will elaborate on in a few minutes.

我們在第四季表現強勁，為又一個精彩的一年畫上了圓滿的句點。所有措施均符合我們在 12 月 IR 日期間所說的內容。對於我們合併的經紀和風險管理部門，我們公佈的收入增長了 20%，整體有機增長 8.1%，但在控制 606 會計和大型生命案例計時時，這更像是 9.4%。我們的併購季度也非常出色。我們完成了 14 項合併，預計年化收入總計 4.1 億美元。 GAAP 每股收益為 0.30 美元，淨利潤率為 2.8%，受到違反直覺的盈餘應付帳款會計的影響，道格將在幾分鐘內詳細說明這一點。

So better to look at it more on a comparable basis. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.22, up 23% year-over-year, and we posted an EBITDAC margin of 30.1%, up 69 basis points over fourth quarter '22. What a terrific quarter to close out an incredibly good year by the team. When I think about our growth for the full year, we are up 18% in revenue, that's an increase of $1.5 billion. That's amazing.

因此，最好在可比的基礎上更多地看待它。調整後每股收益為 2.22 美元，年增 23%，EBITDAC 利潤率為 30.1%，比 22 年第四季增長 69 個基點。這是一個非常棒的季度，為團隊結束了令人難以置信的美好一年。當我考慮全年的成長時，我們的收入成長了 18%，即增加了 15 億美元。太棒了。

Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 20%. Organic headline was 7.2%, but I see it more like 8.7% without the accounting and timing noise and 11% if you include interest income. Adjusted EBITDAC was $647 million, growing 21% year-over-year, and we posted adjusted EBITDAC margin expansion of 48 basis points.

從經紀業務開始，轉向以細分市場為基礎的結果。報告營收成長20%。有機標題是 7.2％，但我認為如果不考慮會計和時間噪音，它更像是 8.7％，如果包括利息收入，則為 11％。調整後 EBITDAC 為 6.47 億美元，年增 21%，調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大了 48 個基點。

Let me give you some insights behind our Brokerage segment organic and just to level set the following does not including the interest income. Our global retail P/C brokerage operations posted organic of 8%. This includes about 8% organic in the U.S., 8% in the U.K., 5% in Canada, 10% in Australia and New Zealand. Our employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of 2% or 6%, controlling for the timing of those large life cases.

讓我給您一些關於我們的經紀業務有機背後的見解，只是為了確定以下內容不包括利息收入。我們的全球零售財產險經紀業務的有機成長率為 8%。其中美國約 8% 為有機食品，英國為 8%，加拿大為 5%，澳洲和紐西蘭為 10%。我們的員工福利經紀和諮詢業務的有機成長率為 2% 或 6%，控制了那些大型生命案件的時間表。

Shifting to reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses, overall organic of 14%. This includes Gallagher Re at 12%, U.S. wholesale at 12% and U.K. specialty at 16%. So all of these are very similar to what we were seeing throughout the year.

轉向再保險、批發和專業業務，整體有機成長 14%。其中包括 Gallagher Re 的 12%、美國批發的 12% 和英國專業的 16%。所以所有這些都與我們全年所看到的非常相似。

Next, let me provide some thoughts on the P/C insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Global fourth quarter renewal premiums, which include both rate and exposure changes were up 8.5%. That's in line with the 8% to 10% renewal premium change we have been reporting throughout '22 and '23. Renewal premium increases continue to be broad-based, up across all of our major geographies and most product lines. For example, property is up 15%, even in a slow cat property quarter. General liability is up 6%, workers' comp is up 2%, umbrella and package are each up about 10%.

接下來，我將從主險市場開始，談談對財產險定價環境的一些思考。全球第四季續保保費（包括費率和風險敞口變化）增加了 8.5%。這與我們在 2022 年和 23 年期間報告的 8% 至 10% 的續保保費變化一致。續保費繼續廣泛增長，遍及我們所有主要地區和大多數產品線。例如，即使在房地產季度表現緩慢的情況下，房地產也上漲了 15%。一般責任險上漲6%，工人賠償金上漲2%，傘和包裹險各上漲約10%。

Shifting to the reinsurance market. 1/1 renewals were orderly reflected a more balanced supply-demand dynamic. Continued strong demand for property cat cover was met with sufficient reinsurance capacity from existing reinsurers and cat bonds. Importantly, reinsurers continue to exercise discipline on pricing and terms, not giving back the structural changes achieved last year.

轉向再保險市場。 1/1續約有序，體現了供需動態更加平衡。現有再保險公司和巨災債券擁有足夠的再保險能力，滿足了對財產巨災保險持續強勁的需求。重要的是，再保險公司繼續在定價和條款方面遵守紀律，而不是放棄去年實現的結構性變化。

In casualty, while there was adequate supply, most casualty treaties experienced pricing pressure. Specialty lines renewed mostly flattish. However, coverage limitations continued on war-related products. So in our view, insurance and reinsurance carriers continued to behave rationally, pushing for a rate where it's needed to generate an acceptable underwriting profit. Property is still needing rate. And more and more, we're hearing about the need for rate in casualty lines. The prior year development turns into a big concern, we think it could be a multiyear journey of rate increases. All that said, always remember, our job as brokers is to help our clients find the best coverage while mitigating price increases. So not all these renewal premium increases ultimately show up in our organic.

在傷亡方面，雖然供應充足，但大多數傷亡條約都面臨定價壓力。更新後的專業線路大多持平。然而，戰爭相關產品的承保範圍仍受到限制。因此，我們認為，保險和再保險公司繼續保持理性行為，推動產生可接受的承保利潤所需的費率。房產仍需要利率。我們越來越多地聽到有關傷亡保險費率的必要性。前一年的發展成為一個大問題，我們認為這可能是一個多年的升息之旅。儘管如此，請永遠記住，我們作為經紀人的工作是幫助我們的客戶找到最佳的保險範圍，同時減輕價格上漲。因此，並非所有這些續訂保費的增加最終都反映在我們的有機中。

Moving to our customers' business activity. Overall, it continues to be strong. During the fourth quarter, our daily indication showed positive midyear policy endorsements and audits ahead of last year's levels. So we are not seeing a slowdown. The same strength is also evident in the U.S. labor market with continued growth in nonfarm payrolls and low unemployment rate, which is why I believe our HR consulting retirement and benefits business will have terrific opportunities in '24.

轉向我們客戶的業務活動。總體而言，它仍然強勁。在第四季度，我們的日常指標顯示，年中政策認可和審計的動機高於去年的水平。所以我們沒有看到經濟放緩。同樣的優勢在美國勞動力市場也很明顯，非農業就業人數持續增長，失業率較低，這就是為什麼我相信我們的人力資源諮詢退休和福利業務將在 24 年擁有絕佳的機會。

As we sit here today, we are very well positioned. 2023 was a great new business year, and I believe we will continue to win new clients while retaining our existing customers. We have incredible niche expertise. Our client service is top notch, and our data and analytics continues to distance ourselves from the competition. We can handle any account of any size, anywhere around the globe. All this leads me to reaffirm that we will still see further '24 Brokerage organic in the 7% to 9% range that would lead to another outstanding year.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們處於非常有利的位置。 2023 年是一個偉大的新業務年，我相信我們將繼續贏得新客戶，同時保留現有客戶。我們擁有令人難以置信的利基專業知識。我們的客戶服務是一流的，我們的數據和分析繼續在競爭中保持領先。我們可以在全球任何地方處理任何規模的任何帳戶。所有這些都使我重申，我們仍將看到進一步的 '24 經紀業務有機率在 7% 至 9% 範圍內，這將導致另一個出色的一年。

Shifting to mergers and acquisitions. We had an excellent fourth quarter, completing 13 new brokerage mergers, representing about $350 million of estimated annualized revenue. I'd like to thank all of our new partners for joining us and extend a very warm welcome to our growing family of Gallagher professionals. And we are off to a strong start to '24. We've already closed 4 brokerage mergers here in January for about $30 million of annualized revenue. We also have around 40 term sheets signed or being prepared representing around $350 million of annualized revenue. We know not all of these will ultimately close, but we believe we'll get our fair share, clearly, a very strong pipeline.

轉向併購。我們第四季的表現非常出色，完成了 13 項新的經紀業務合併，預計年化收入約為 3.5 億美元。我要感謝所有新合作夥伴的加入，並對我們不斷成長的加拉格爾專業人士大家庭表示熱烈歡迎。我們在 24 年有了一個好的開始。一月我們已經在這裡完成了 4 家券商合併，年收入約 3,000 萬美元。我們也簽署或正在準備約 40 份投資意向書，代表年化收入約 3.5 億美元。我們知道並非所有這些最終都會關閉，但我們相信我們將獲得公平的份額，顯然，這是一個非常強大的管道。

Moving on to Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Fourth quarter organic growth was terrific at 13.2%, full year at 15.8%. Adjusted fourth quarter EBITDAC margins of 21% and full year at 20%, all this right in line with our December expectations. We also completed 1 merger in Australia with expected annualized revenue of about $60 million, adding new capabilities in the disability space. Looking forward, we continue to see '24-year organic in the 9% to 11% range and full year margins close to 20%, and that would be another outstanding year.

接下來是風險管理部分，Gallagher Bassett。第四季有機成長達 13.2%，全年有機成長 15.8%。調整後第四季 EBITDAC 利潤率為 21%，全年調整後利潤率為 20%，所有這些都符合我們 12 月的預期。我們也在澳洲完成了 1 項合併，預計年收入約 6,000 萬美元，增加了殘疾人領域的新功能。展望未來，我們繼續看到「24 年有機利潤率在 9% 至 11% 範圍內，全年利潤率接近 20%，那將是另一個出色的一年」。

And I'll conclude with some comments regarding our bedrock culture. It's a culture of client service, ethics and teamwork encapsulated in the Gallagher way. It is an unrelenting culture of excellence that helped drive full year '23 results for our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments of 18% growth in revenue, of which 10% was organic. 51 mergers with nearly $900 million in estimated annualized revenue and 20% growth in adjusted EBITDAC. Most importantly, we have a culture that our people believe in, embrace and live every day. It's a huge competitive advantage and will continue to fuel our success and growth. That is the Gallagher way. Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

最後我將提出一些關於我們的基石文化的評論。這是一種以加拉格爾方式體現的客戶服務、道德和團隊合作文化。正是這種不懈的卓越文化幫助我們的經紀和風險管理部門合併後的 23 年全年業績實現了 18% 的收入成長，其中 10% 是有機收入。 51 起合併，預計年化收入將接近 9 億美元，調整後 EBITDAC 成長 20%。最重要的是，我們擁有一種我們的員工每天信仰、擁抱和實踐的文化。這是一個巨大的競爭優勢，並將繼續推動我們的成功和成長。這就是加拉格爾的方式。好的。我現在停下來，把它交給道格。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll walk you through our earnings release commenting on fourth quarter and full year organic and margins by segment. I'll also provide some comments on our full year '24 outlook. We'll then shift to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our IR website where I'll provide some comments on our typical modeling helpers and then give 2 short vignettes, one on investment income and another as a quick refresher on earn-out payable accounting. I'll then conclude my prepared remarks with a few comments on cash, M&A and capital management.

謝謝帕特，大家好。今天，我將帶您瀏覽我們的收益報告，對第四季度和全年的有機利潤和按部門的利潤率進行評論。我也會對 24 年全年展望發表一些評論。然後，我們將轉向我們在IR 網站上發布的CFO 評論文件，其中我將對我們典型的建模助手提供一些評論，然後提供2 個簡短的小插曲，一個關於投資收入，另一個作為對盈利的快速回顧應付帳款會計。然後，我將透過一些關於現金、併購和資本管理的評論來結束我準備好的演講。

Okay. Let's flip to Page 3 of the earnings release. Headline, fourth quarter Brokerage organic of 7.2% is right in line with our December IR Day expectation of 7% to 7.5%. But as Pat noted, we see that closer to 8.7% and organic of 11% if we were to also include interest income. That's a darn good quarter, no matter what percentage you want to focus on. A couple of other puts and takes to call out on that page. First, contingents did come in a little bit better than our December thinking due to more favorable carrier performance than we thought at that time. And second, base commission and fee organic of 6.5%. That's where you should levelize for the impact of 606 in those life cases. Controlling for those takes that over 8%. Looking ahead to '24, our Brokerage segment organic outlook is unchanged from our late October and mid-December expectations. We still see full year organic growth in that 7% to 9% range.

好的。讓我們翻到財報發布的第三頁。標題是，第四季經紀業務有機率為 7.2%，與我們 12 月投資者關係日預期的 7% 至 7.5% 相符。但正如帕特所指出的那樣，如果我們也將利息收入也包括在內，我們會發現該比例接近 8.7%，有機比例為 11%。無論你想關注多少百分比，這都是一個非常好的季度。在該頁面上還有其他一些需要呼叫的 put 和 take 操作。首先，特遣隊的表現確實比我們 12 月的預期要好一些，因為航空母艦的表現比我們當時想像的要好。其次，基本佣金和費用有機為 6.5%。這就是您應該平衡 606 在這些生活案例中的影響的地方。控制這些需要超過 8%。展望 24 年，我們的經紀業務有機前景與我們 10 月底和 12 月中旬的預期沒有改變。我們仍預計全年有機成長在 7% 至 9% 的範圍內。

All right. Let's flip to Page 5 of the earnings release, to the Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. Adjusted fourth quarter EBITDAC margin was up 48 basis points. But remember, to get to that requires recomputing last year's fourth quarter using current FX rates. We've done that in this table and is 31.3% for fourth quarter '22. So posting a 31.6% margin this quarter gives you that 48 basis points of margin expansion, and that's right at the high end of our December IR Day expectation. Then if you control for the role in a Buck and other mergers we closed late in the quarter that have some seasonality, that would have been 150 basis points of expansion. That's simply terrific work by the team.

好的。讓我們翻到收益發布的第 5 頁，經紀業務部門調整後的 EBITDAC 表。調整後第四季 EBITDAC 利潤率上升 48 個基點。但請記住，要實現這一目標需要使用當前匯率重新計算去年第四季的數據。我們已經在這個表中做到了這一點，22 年第四季的比例為 31.3%。因此，本季公佈 31.6% 的利潤率意味著利潤率擴張了 48 個基點，而這正是我們 12 月投資者關係日預期的最高值。然後，如果你控制 Buck 和我們在本季度末完成的其他具有一定季節性的合併中的角色，那麼擴張將是 150 個基點。這簡直是團隊的出色工作。

Looking ahead to next year, we anticipate seeing some full year margin expansion starting at 4% organic. And if organic was, say, double that, maybe around 60 basis points of expansion. And note, that includes about 40 basis points of pressure against it due to the roll in of M&A, mostly Buck. On a quarterly basis, the headwind is about 80 to 90 basis points in the first quarter '24. So please don't forget to reflect this nuance in your models.

展望明年，我們預計全年利潤率將有機成長 4%。如果有機成長兩倍的話，擴張幅度可能約為 60 個基點。請注意，這包括由於併購（主要是巴克併購）的加入而帶來的約 40 個基點的壓力。以季度計算，24 年第一季的阻力約為 80 至 90 個基點。因此，請不要忘記在您的模型中反映這種細微差別。

Okay. Moving to the Risk Management segment and the organic and EBITDAC tables on Pages 5 and 6. Another excellent quarter for Gallagher Bassett, 13.2% organic growth and margins at 21%. We continue to benefit from new business wins and excellent retention. Looking forward, even as we lap growth associated with some large new business wins from early '23, we see full year '24 organic in that 9% to 11% range and margins around 20%, again, that's unchanged from our December views.

好的。轉向風險管理部分以及第 5 頁和第 6 頁的有機和 EBITDAC 表。對於 Gallagher Bassett 來說，這是另一個出色的季度，有機增長 13.2%，利潤率為 21%。我們繼續受益於新業務的贏得和出色的保留。展望未來，儘管我們從23 年初開始就取得了一些大型新業務的成長，但我們預計24 年全年有機成長率將在9% 至11% 範圍內，利潤率將在20% 左右，這與我們12 月的觀點沒有改變。

So let's turn to Page 7 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. Total segment adjusted fourth quarter numbers came in a little better than the favorable end of our December IR Day expectations due to less borrowing on our line of credit and slightly lower corporate expenses.

因此，讓我們轉向收益發布的第 7 頁和企業部​​門快捷方式表。由於我們的信貸額度借款減少以及公司費用略有下降，調整後的第四季度總部門數據略好於我們 12 月投資者關係日預期的有利結果。

So now let's shift to the CFO commentary document, to Page 3, that's where we provide many modeling helpers. Most of the fourth quarter actual numbers are very close to our December IR Day estimates. We've also now added 2024 information. So take a look at that. In particular, as we -- take a look at FX. We are expecting a small headwind to EPS in the first half within the Brokerage segment.

現在讓我們轉向 CFO 評論文檔，即第 3 頁，我們在其中提供了許多建模助手。第四季度的大部分實際數字非常接近我們 12 月 IR Day 的估計。我們現在也新增了 2024 年資訊。所以看看這個。特別是，我們來看看外匯。我們預計上半年經紀業務的每股盈餘將出現小幅阻力。

Now moving to Page 4 of the CFO commentary document, to the corporate segment outlook for full year '24. There's no change there to our full year estimate that we provided 6 weeks ago during our IR Day, but we are now providing quarterly estimates. So please take some time to refine your models with us added information.

現在轉到財務長評論文件的第 4 頁，即 24 年全年的企業部門展望。我們六週前在投資者關係日期間提供的全年預測沒有變化，但我們現在提供季度預測。因此，請花一些時間使用我們添加的資訊來完善您的模型。

When you get to Page 5, this page shows our tax credit carryforwards. You'll see what we discussed at our December IR Day. We are able to reestablish a portion of our tax credits following the change in tax method election when we filed our '22 U.S. federal tax return here in the fourth quarter. Accordingly, as of December 31, we have about $870 million of tax credits available. That's a nice future cash flow sweetener that helps us fund future M&A.

當您到達第 5 頁時，此頁顯示我們的稅收抵免結轉。您將看到我們在 12 月 IR 日討論的內容。當我們在第四季度提交 22 年美國聯邦納稅申報表時，我們能夠在納稅方法選擇發生變化後重新建立部分稅收抵免。因此，截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有約 8.7 億美元的可用稅收抵免。這是一個很好的未來現金流甜味劑，可以幫助我們為未來的併購提供資金。

So let's turn to the new table that we put in the top of Page 6. We thought this would be helpful as we've been giving a lot of questions about our investment income line. The punchline is that this line includes items such as premium finance revenues, book gains and equity investments in third-party brokers in addition to interest income. So this table breaks it down for you by quarter. We hope you will find this helpful. We've also renamed that line in our financial statements to clarify that it contains other items. No numbers change, we've just broadened the descriptor.

因此，讓我們轉向第 6 頁頂部的新表格。我們認為這會有所幫助，因為我們已經提出了許多有關投資收益線的問題。有趣的是，除了利息收入之外，該項目還包括溢價財務收入、帳面收益和第三方經紀商的股權投資等項目。因此，這張表按季度為您進行了細分。我們希望您會發現這很有幫助。我們還在財務報表中重新命名了該行，以澄清它包含其他項目。數字沒有改變，我們只是擴大了描述符。

So just shifting down on that page, on Page 6, you'll see total Brokerage rollover revenue for fourth quarter was $180 million. That's consistent with our IR Day expectation. Looking forward, we've included estimated revenues for mergers closed through yesterday for the Brokerage segment in that table and for the Risk Management segment in the text below that table. Based on Brokerage and Risk Management mergers closed through yesterday, we're estimating around $540 million of rollover revenues to be recognized in '24. And also, don't forget, you'll need to make a [bet] for future M&A and also add interest expense as we fund a portion of those acquisitions via future borrowings.

因此，只需在該頁面上向下移動，即第 6 頁，您就會看到第四季度的經紀業務展期總收入為 1.8 億美元。這與我們對投資者關係日的期望是一致的。展望未來，我們在該表中納入了截至昨天結束的經紀業務部門合併的預期收入，並在該表下方的文本中納入了風險管理部門的預期收入。根據截至昨天完成的經紀和風險管理合併，我們預計 2024 年將確認約 5.4 億美元的展期收入。另外，不要忘記，您需要為未來的併購進行[賭注]，並增加利息費用，因為我們透過未來的借款為這些收購的一部分提供資金。

So while I'm on the topic of M&A, as we foreshadowed in December, we did increase our estimated earn-out payable for Willis Re during the quarter because we now have good line of sight of what we might pay out in the first quarter of 2025. Remember, the accounting for earn-out payables is a bit backwards. If expectations of performance are more favorable, it creates GAAP expense. And if expectations of performance are less favorable, it creates GAAP income. That's what Pat meant when he said counterintuitive accounting. That said, we do adjust these estimate changes, but were the highlight because it does create some GAAP earnings noise. The punchline on all this and what's more important, our reinsurance business is performing extremely well.

因此，當我談論併購主題時，正如我們在 12 月所預示的那樣，我們確實增加了本季度對 Willis Re 的預計應付盈利，因為我們現在對第一季可能支付的金額有了良好的了解2025年。請記住，盈餘應付帳款的會計處理有點倒退。如果對業績的期望更有利，則會產生 GAAP 費用。如果業績預期不太樂觀，則會創造 GAAP 收入。這就是帕特所說的違反直覺的會計的意思。也就是說，我們確實調整了這些估計變化，但這是亮點，因為它確實產生了一些 GAAP 收益雜訊。所有這一切的要點，更重要的是，我們的再保險業務表現非常好。

So moving to cash, capital management and M&A funding. Available cash on hand at December 31 was about $400 million. And with another year of strong expected cash flow generation here in '24, we estimate about $3.5 billion of capacity to fund M&A in '24 using only free cash and incremental borrowings.

因此轉向現金、資本管理和併購融資。截至12月31日，手上可用現金約4億美元。隨著 24 年預計現金流量將強勁成長，我們估計 24 年僅使用自由現金和增量借款即可為併購提供資金的能力約為 35 億美元。

So those are my comments. As I reflect on '23, 2 metrics for our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments really sum up how good our year was. Revenue growth of 18%, up $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDAC growth of 20% or nearly $550 million. So the team delivered another terrific year, and we all have tremendous momentum to do it again here in '24. Back to you, Pat.

這就是我的評論。當我回顧 23 年時，我們經紀業務和風險管理部門的 2 個指標確實總結了我們這一年的表現。營收成長 18%，增加 15 億美元，調整後 EBITDAC 成長 20%，即近 5.5 億美元。因此，團隊又度過了輝煌的一年，我們都有巨大的動力在 24 年再次做到這一點。回到你身邊，帕特。

Thank you, Doug. And operator, I think we can go to questions now, please.

謝謝你，道格。接線員，我想我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, within the 7% to 9% organic Brokerage guide for 2024, can you guys give us a sense of what you're assuming for pricing and economic exposure throughout the course of the year?

我的第一個問題是，在 2024 年 7% 至 9% 的有機經紀業務指南中，你們能否讓我們了解一下你們對全年定價和經濟風險的假設？

Well, I think when we did that in our budget process, the range of 7% to 9%, it's pretty much so what we're seeing today throughout next year is really the assumptions. Where are we today in pricing? Where are we in exposure units? What we've been running here this year? We don't see a lot of change to that next year.

嗯，我認為當我們在預算流程中做到這一點時，範圍為 7% 到 9%，所以我們今天看到的整個明年實際上都是假設。今天我們的定價處於什麼位置？我們在曝光單位中處於什麼位置？今年我們在這裡跑什麼？我們認為明年不會有太大變化。

And then when you guys go through and come up with the 7% to 9%, are you assuming that all of your businesses will be in that range? I mean, now you've been seeing really strong growth within reinsurance, wholesale and specialty. Are those expected to continue to be above and maybe some of the others like benefits might be below? How do you see the different businesses shaking out in '24?

然後，當你們得出 7% 到 9% 的比例時，你們是否假設你們所有的業務都會在這個範圍內？我的意思是，現在您已經看到再保險、批發和專業保險領域的強勁成長。那些預期是否會繼續高於，而其他一些福利（例如福利）可能會低於？您如何看待 24 年不同產業的變革？

All right. So on that point, not every business has given a flat target number, they view it based on what they're seeing in the marketplace rate, exposure, opportunities, hiring, hiring new producers. So every business does that differently. What would I say is being different? Who's on the upper end of the range and who's on maybe the lower end of the range? Benefits might be a little bit on the lower end of the range, and you might see reinsurance and specialty on the upper end of the range in that. But by and large, each business unit rolls it up and that's how we get to that 7% to 9% range.

好的。因此，在這一點上，並不是每個企業都給出了一個固定的目標數字，他們根據在市場價格、曝光率、機會、招聘、僱用新生產商中看到的情況來看待它。因此，每個企業的做法都不同。我要說什麼是與眾不同？誰處於該範圍的上限，誰可能處於該範圍的下端？福利可能會稍微處於該範圍的下限，而您可能會看到再保險和專業服務處於該範圍的上限。但總的來說，每個業務部門都會將其匯總，這就是我們達到 7% 到 9% 範圍的方法。

And then, Pat, you mentioned some interesting comments on the casualty side. We're starting to hear your thoughts about pricing pressure and just you said right, multiyear journey here. Can you just tell us like what you're seeing and then how you expect this cycle could transpire assuming we do start to see more reserve holes emerge across the industry?

然後，帕特，你提到了關於傷亡方面的一些有趣的評論。我們開始聽到您對定價壓力的想法，您說得對，這裡是多年的旅程。您能否告訴我們您所看到的情況，以及假設我們確實開始看到整個行業出現更多儲備金缺口，您預計這個週期會如何發生？

Well, I just think it makes some logical sense, at least. When you take a look back, we saw this in the property side. Nobody touched values for 5, 6, 7 years because inflation was 0. And so you've got a bunch of reserves on the casualty side, set at those very same years that all of a sudden you come into a spike in inflation. And yes, it's been tamped down, but it's still there. And you look back at those reserves and then you take a look at these settlements that are, in fact, nuclear. And you start to say, well, all right, how well are those reserves going to hold up? Now look, I can't speak for the industry as a whole. But my sense in the meetings that we're having and discussions we're having with a number of the various carriers is that they have some concerns there that they are not necessarily comfortable with exactly where they are.

嗯，我只是認為這至少有一定的邏輯意義。當你回頭看時，我們在物業方面看到了這一點。 5年、6年、7年沒有人觸及價值，因為通貨膨脹為0。因此，你在傷亡方面有大量準備金，這些準備金是在通貨膨脹突然飆升的那些年設定的。是的，它已經被壓平了，但它仍然在那裡。你回顧一下這些儲備，然後看看這些實際上是核的定居點。你開始說，好吧，這些儲備還能維持多久？現在看，我不能代表整個產業。但在我們與許多不同的業者舉行的會議和討論中，我的感覺是，他們有一些擔憂，他們不一定對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

And so our view on that is, okay, if you take a look at if there were inflation in those numbers and if it were something where you had to get them right, you'd have to see price increases in order to do it. I don't think that, that's something with the kind of payout structure that you have in casualty that you need to get in 1 year. So I think you're going to see possibly affirming that does, in fact, take a few years to catch up with reality.

所以我們對此的看法是，好吧，如果你看看這些數字是否存在通貨膨脹，如果你必須把它們弄對，你必須看到價格上漲才能做到這一點。我不認為這是一年內需要獲得的傷亡賠償結構。因此，我認為您可能會看到，事實上，確實需要幾年時間才能趕上現實。

And then one last one. Have you guys reserved to the maximum on the earn-out associated with the Willis Re deal?

然後是最後一張。你們是否已經保留了與 Willis Re 交易相關的最大收益？

Effectively yes. I mean we still have to accrete that for 1 more year. So it might be -- I think there's $50 million of accretion that will go through the financial statements as next year.

實際上是的。我的意思是我們還需要再撐一年。所以可能是——我認為明年的財務報表將增加 5000 萬美元。

Our next question is coming from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

Pat, did you give the organic for open brokerage versus the program business within wholesale?

帕特，您是否給出了開放經紀業務與批發業務中的有機關係？

Well, I think open brokerage has been where we've had the real nice run-up. I mean it's probably double to triple what's going on in the program business. So if you look at open brokerage that running around 13% to 15%, you're probably looking at 5% on the programs.

嗯，我認為開放經紀業務是我們真正取得良好進展的地方。我的意思是，這可能是節目業務中發生的事情的兩倍到三倍。因此，如果您查看運行在 13% 至 15% 左右的開放經紀業務，您可能會看到 5% 的專案。

And then what's your take on the property market? Do you think little bit of deceleration there? Well, one, do you think that's the case? And two, would it have any kind of material impact on your organic?

那麼您對房地產市場有何看法？你認為那裡有一點減速嗎？嗯，一，你認為是這樣嗎？第二，它會對你的有機產品產生任何實質影響嗎？

No. I think -- well, I mean, any change in pricing is going to have an impact on organic. But I'm not -- no, I don't see carriers at this point saying, "Oh, the good news is I can take the price backwards." So we are still seeing a push on property rate. And then you do, of course, have carriers incredibly focused on valuations. That kind of went by the wayside for years. There was no inflation, fine, 0% blah, blah, blah. Now claims are coming in, they didn't get their premium for it, the replacement costs are substantially higher than they may be predicted. And so I think you do have a little bit of time left where there's going to be some valuation correction, and I do think there is a need for continued rate strengthening.

不，我認為——嗯，我的意思是，定價的任何變化都會對有機產品產生影響。但我不——不，我沒有看到運營商在這一點上說，“哦，好消息是我可以降低價格。”因此，我們仍然看到房地產價格上漲。當然，營運商確實非常注重估值。這種做法多年來一直被擱置。沒有通貨膨脹，好吧，0％等等，等等。現在索賠進來了，他們沒有得到保費，重置成本大大高於他們的預期。因此，我認為確實還有一點時間進行估值修正，而且我確實認為有必要繼續升息。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場部的 Mike Zaremski。

So first question on M&A. You guys have been extremely successful integrating and acquiring firms. But I'm just curious if the landscape has changed a bit in terms of kind of what's available. And, I guess, just for example, when I was -- you've announced a few bank-owned brokers. I believe, historically, there's 2 of your competitors that did most of those, and they would -- one of them would talk openly about those deals being tougher, meaning take a couple of years to turn them into the growth machines that those companies are and Buck was a little different, too. So just curious if the pool is changing a bit, and so we should kind of expect probably different types of deals going forward versus the historical 5, 10 years?

關於併購的第一個問題。你們在整合和收購公司方面非常成功。但我只是好奇，在可用的內容方面，情況是否發生了一些變化。而且，我想，舉個例子，當我──你宣布了一些銀行擁有的經紀人。我相信，從歷史上看，有兩個競爭對手做了其中的大部分，他們會——其中一個會公開談論這些交易更加艱難，這意味著需要幾年的時間才能將它們變成這些公司所擁有的成長機器。巴克也有些不同。所以只是好奇這個池是否發生了一些變化，所以我們應該期待未來 5 年、10 年可能會出現不同類型的交易？

Well, I'd tell you, first of all, let's remember. I think that when we do acquisitions, we like to talk about the fact that we're getting two things. We're not just getting revenue and earnings, which, of course, we want, we get. But we're getting terrific brains. And the bank-owned deals happen to be more sizable and they've got a lot of terrific people. And in addition to the brain power we're getting, we're getting expertise in the niches from the brain power, but we're also getting more volume in areas that now are spreading the brand. And it adds to that the virtuous circle of knowing about Gallagher, listening to the con-call, accepting the call.

好吧，我會告訴你，首先，讓我們記住。我認為，當我們進行收購時，我們喜歡談論這樣一個事實：我們得到了兩件事。我們不僅獲得了收入和利潤，當然，我們想要這些，我們也得到了。但我們的大腦非常聰明。銀行旗下的交易規模更大，而且擁有許多優秀的人才。除了我們獲得的腦力之外，我們還從腦力中獲得了利基市場的專業知識，而且我們還在現在正在傳播品牌的領域獲得了更多的銷售。它還增加了了解加拉格爾、聽取電話、接受電話的良性循環。

And I think what we're seeing is that our acquisition targets come aboard, and I guess this is the right way to phrase it, they kind of get on fire. It is our -- it's our organic engine. There's no question about it. They come in, they've got a lot to say, now the bank deals are bigger. But if you take our data and down, roll-in acquisitions, these are people that more often than not have not been able to really tackle the large accounts in their own geography.

我認為我們看到的是我們的收購目標出現了，我想這是正確的表達方式，他們有點著火了。這是我們的有機引擎。毫無疑問。他們進來，有很多話要說，現在銀行交易規模更大了。但如果你看一下我們的數據，然後進行滾動式收購，你會發現這些人往往無法真正處理自己所在地區的大客戶問題。

In the minute they sign on to us, they're out telling those clients we're part of Gallagher, here's what we've got, let me tell you about the expertise we've got, let me show you some of the things that we do in data and analytics. You've all heard us talk about drive. What do people like you buy? What kind of limits should you have? So we arm them with tools that they just -- whether they're in a bank or not a bank, they've never had before. So the excitement level does not take a long time to resonate. The calls go out pretty immediately, hey, did you hear that we're part of another firm." And these are not folks that are in any way on their back foot. They are on the front foot and moving literally at the day of closing.

在他們與我們簽約的那一刻，他們就告訴那些客戶我們是加拉格爾的一部分，這就是我們所擁有的，讓我告訴你我們所擁有的專業知識，讓我向你展示一些東西我們在數據和分析方面所做的事情。你們都聽過我們談論駕駛。像你這樣的人買什麼？你應該有什麼樣的限制？因此，我們為他們配備了他們以前從未擁有過的工具——無論他們是否在銀行工作。所以興奮程度不需要很長時間就能產生共鳴。這些電話很快就打通了，嘿，你聽說我們是另一家公司的一部分了嗎？關閉。

Yes. Let me add one thing on that. I think that the organic and cadence and Eastern was running very similar to what we're seeing in our similar geographies in similar areas. So I think your premise was that it take a while to restart them. I think they're already started. I think they're going after it. Buck is already showing terrific organic growth. We don't get it in our numbers for a year. So somebody goes out and sells something within the year, but we never get organic credit for that. And we get the revenues for it, but we don't get the organic growth credit in our numbers. So I wouldn't say that the premise was, if the ones that we bought that they were -- they needed a restart.

是的。讓我補充一件事。我認為東部地區的有機和節奏與我們在相似地區的相似地區所看到的非常相似。所以我認為你的前提是需要一段時間才能重新啟動它們。我認為他們已經開始了。我認為他們正在追趕它。巴克已經展現出驚人的有機成長。我們已經一年沒有拿到它的數據了。因此，有人在一年內出去賣掉一些東西，但我們從未因此獲得有機信用。我們為此獲得了收入，但我們的數字並沒有獲得有機成長的功勞。所以我不會說前提是，如果我們購買的那些是——他們需要重新啟動。

No, in fact, Mike, I'll tell you what we're referring to in our process is the Gallagher effect. The Gallagher effect is what happens after you announced your part of Gallagher. It's not a slowdown, explain it. It takes their list, their pipeline of prospects and energizes the team to go back and tell about we really have something new to talk about here. And it's not just about, I know you -- I've called on you many times. I've got a good relationship in the marketplace. Can I talk to you about your pricing? It's a hard market, soft market, but no, no. This is -- let me bring some data and analytics. Let me show you what's going on in our niches. We have experts in your specific area that I think you're going to want to meet. It's pretty exciting, actually. When I get a chance to get involved, it turns me out.

不，事實上，麥克，我會告訴你我們在流程中指的是加拉格爾效應。加拉格爾效應是在你宣布自己的加拉格爾角色後發生的。解釋一下，這不是減速。它需要他們的名單、潛在客戶的管道，並激勵團隊回去告訴我們，我們確實有一些新的東西可以在這裡談論。這不僅僅是因為我認識你——我已經拜訪過你很多次了。我在市場上有很好的關係。我可以和您談談您的定價嗎？這是一個硬市場，軟市場，但不，不。這是——讓我帶來一些數據和分析。讓我向您展示我們的利基市場正在發生什麼。我們有您特定領域的專家，我想您會想見見他們。實際上，這非常令人興奮。當我有機會參與其中時，結果就是我。

Okay. No, I appreciate that color. Switching gears and you could tell me if I'm splitting hairs here. But on the December Investor Day, there was a number of reasons you kind of lowered the very near-term 4Q organic growth estimates versus what you previously have been thinking. And I think a couple of those sounded like they were more of like a push into '24 like on the life insurance side and maybe entertainment business rebounding. But I didn't think you really brought up your -- you didn't bring up your '24 guide. So I guess, should we -- seasonally -- obviously, we know there's seasonality in the quarters. But should we be thinking 1Q or the first half of the year gets a little bit more of a bump than it does historically? Or am I just reading too much into things?

好的。不，我很欣賞這種顏色。換個角度，你可以告訴我我是否在這裡吹毛求疵。但在 12 月投資者日，您出於多種原因降低了近期第四季度有機成長預期，而不是您先前的預期。我認為其中一些聽起來更像是進入 24 世紀，就像在人壽保險方面，也許娛樂業正在反彈。但我不認為你真的提出了你的——你沒有提出你的 '24 指南。所以我想，我們應該——季節性——顯然，我們知道這些季度存在季節性。但我們是否應該考慮第一季或今年上半年會比歷史上出現更多的波動？還是我只是讀太多了？

I think you're missing the magnitude of this that -- in the quarter, let's call it, $10 million -- [if we get] $15 million in total here that gets pushed out on a $10 billion business next year. Okay, it's 10 or 15 basis points in there, but so that wouldn't be enough to change that 7% to 9% guide in there.

我認為你忽略了這一點的規模——在本季度，我們稱之為 1000 萬美元——[如果我們在這裡得到]總共 1500 萬美元，明年將被投入到 100 億美元的業務中。好吧，其中有 10 或 15 個基點，但這不足以改變 7% 至 9% 的指導值。

Okay, And just lastly. You're one of the leaders, you've been doing it successfully for a while in terms of moving folks -- or sorry, in your center of excellence. Any changes in kind of the trajectory there in terms of what you guys talked about last year in terms of kind of the goal of -- kind of doubling, maybe the percentage of employees there over the next 5 or so years?

好吧，最後。你是領導者之一，在感動員工方面你已經成功地做到了一段時間——或者抱歉，在你的卓越中心。就你們去年所說的目標而言，那裡的軌跡有什麼變化嗎——在未來五年左右的時間裡，員工的比例可能會翻倍？

I think what we said is that over the next 5 to 7 years, we'll need twice as many people there as we have there now. I think what's really exciting about all the work that we've done for almost 2 decades there now has put us in a position of being so standardized in many of the processes that we do. We now have the opportunity to unleash AI on that because that's already done. We have made that investment. And now what we can do is deploy AI against it. And, look, those folks, if you're going to hire twice as many folks, they're going to end up with better jobs over there because they're going to be using AI. So our colleagues there are going to be well rewarded by deploying that technology into it. So we are really fired up about it.

我認為我們所說的是，在未來 5 到 7 年內，我們需要的人員數量將是現在的兩倍。我認為，我們近 20 年來所做的所有工作的真正令人興奮之處在於，我們現在所做的許多流程都處於如此標準化的境地。我們現在有機會在這方面釋放人工智慧，因為這已經完成了。我們已經進行了這項投資。現在我們能做的就是部署人工智慧來對抗它。而且，看，那些人，如果你要雇用兩倍的人，他們最終會在那裡找到更好的工作，因為他們將使用人工智慧。因此，我們的同事將透過將該技術部署到其中而獲得豐厚的回報。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

Yes. Let me hit a couple of other items. Why would we need to double our employee count there because we're going to double the business. And that's going to lead to plenty of opportunities there. Secondly, and I think this is a hugely important point. Standardizing a Brokerage business from an agency system through the operating processes to things like issuing certificates of insurance is a bitch. It takes 4, 5 years to bang it through. I've done it. It's a headache. We're there. We don't need to do it. We don't need to sell it. It's standard operating procedure. When you join us, you know that in your due diligence, you come aboard, you plan the effort to change into our agency system and you get rewarded for it by virtue of the data and analytics we can provide you to go out and sell. We don't need to sell our team on that. We don't need to prove it to them. We did that 15 years ago.

是的。讓我來談談其他一些項目。為什麼我們需要將那裡的員工數量增加一倍，因為我們要把業務增加一倍。這將帶來大量的機會。其次，我認為這是非常重要的一點。將經紀業務從代理系統到操作流程再到簽發保險憑證等標準化是一件很麻煩的事。需要4、5年的時間才能完成。我已經做到了。很頭痛。在那裡。我們不需要這樣做。我們不需要賣掉它。這是標準操作程序。當您加入我們時，您知道，在您的盡職調查中，您加入，您計劃努力改變我們的代理系統，並且憑藉我們可以為您提供的數據和分析來進行銷售，您將獲得回報。我們不需要為此出賣我們的團隊。我們不需要向他們證明這一點。我們15年前就這麼做了。

Our next question is coming from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I just had a question on -- just on -- it looks like there was a little bit of favorable timing during the quarter on incentive compensation expenses that helped the margin in Brokerage. Was that a big help? And is that something that you guys have sort of baked into the first quarter of '24, just that timing coming through?

我剛剛有一個問題——剛剛——看起來本季激勵補償費用的時機有點有利，這有助於提高經紀業務的利潤率。這是一個很大的幫助嗎？你們是否已經在 24 年第一季融入了這一點，就在這個時機到來了？

Well, first of all, we talked about that, I think, back in our April or June call that we were probably a little further ahead at that point of the year and our incentive comp accruals. So that's been contemplated in our guidance of margin expansion since way back then. So that -- I would say there's no new news of what we were expecting in December versus what we delivered this quarter. So -- and what's the impact of it? It's not a point. I mean, so it's not a big number.

嗯，首先，我想，我們在 4 月或 6 月的電話會議中就談到了這一點，即我們在今年的那個時候以及我們的激勵補償應計情況可能會稍微領先一些。因此，從那時起，我們就在利潤擴張的指導中考慮到了這一點。因此，我想說，我們 12 月的預期與本季交付的情況相比，沒有新的消息。那麼——它的影響是什麼？這不是重點。我的意思是，所以這不是一個大數字。

Got it. Understood. And then I just wanted to come back to the 7% to 9% Brokerage organic for 2024 and sort of level set in terms of what you guys are thinking on the exposure growth side, the range of outcomes that you guys are considering within that 7% to 9%.

知道了。明白了。然後我只想回到 2024 年 7% 到 9% 的經紀業務有機率，以及根據你們在風險成長方面的想法設定的水平，你們在這 7 年內考慮的結果範圍% 至 9%。

All right. So I think when you break down our organic, we usually have more net new versus lost is probably 3% to 4% on that. When you get some rate in there, probably, we're at that 2 points and maybe there's 2 points of it, that's 2 or 3 points that's exposure unit growth. I don't -- it's -- we're going to have more lift next year from new versus lost probably proportionately. So if you break down 9%, it might be 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. If you break down 7%, it's probably half rate -- excuse me, mostly new business and then exposure unit growth again.

好的。所以我認為，當你分解我們的有機產品時，我們通常會有更多的淨新產品，而損失的比例可能是 3% 到 4%。當你在那裡得到一些利率時，我們可能會達到 2 個點，也許有 2 個點，即曝光單位增長的 2 或 3 個點。我不認為——而是——明年我們將從新的成長中獲得更多的提升，而損失可能會成比例。所以如果你分解9%，它可能是1/3、1/3、1/3。如果你把 7% 分解為 7%，那可能是一半——對不起，主要是新業務，然後曝光單位再次成長。

Our next question is coming from Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自格雷戈里·彼得斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I guess I'm going to -- I may go to the new table that you added to the CFO commentary, which we appreciate, which is the interest income, premium finance revenues and other income. And could you give us some perspective? Because ever since mid-December, when the Fed changed their perspective on what's going to happen with rates, there's obviously some mechanics we're trying to calculate on what might happen with that line depending on what the Fed does with interest rates? So maybe there's some benchmarks you can provide for us that will help us sort of map out what we think might happen there.

我想我會——我可能會看一下您在財務長評論中添加的新表格，我們對此表示讚賞，即利息收入、溢價財務收入和其他收入。您能給我們一些看法嗎？因為自從 12 月中旬以來，當聯準會改變了對利率變化的看法時，顯然我們正在嘗試根據聯準會對利率的處理方式來計算該線可能會發生什麼？因此，也許您可以為我們提供一些基準，幫助我們規劃出我們認為可能發生的情況。

All right. So you got the rate sensitivity and you've got the amount of cash that we have on our balance sheet, that's not only ours, but our clients, okay? So first and foremost, it's both the rate that we're earning and then it's the -- on what we're earning that on. Second of all, you've got the dynamic. You mentioned the Fed. The U.S. portion of that interest income is only about 45% of the numbers. So it's actually more heavily weighted to internationally, and you would expect that with kind of large reinsurance balances in some of the large specialty businesses that we have in the U.K. So you got to separate your thinking on that.

好的。因此，你得到了利率敏感性，你得到了我們資產負債表上的現金數額，這不僅是我們的，也是我們客戶的，好嗎？因此，首先也是最重要的是，這既是我們的收入率，也是我們的收入來源。其次，你有動力。你提到了美聯儲。美國的利息收入僅佔總數的 45% 左右。因此，它實際上在國際上的權重更大，你會期望我們在英國擁有的一些大型專業業務有大量的再保險餘額，所以你必須對此分開思考。

The other thing, too, is that you've got the growth as it -- because they grew this year. It was not only because of rate that was going up, but it was also because of the way the reinsurance receivables migrated from Willis' books onto our books during the transition services agreement. So you got that dynamic in it. I think what you're trying to plumb for is how sensitive is that number to rate changes. I would say that it's price-sensitive $5 million per rate cut that the Fed does in the U.S. per year. So if there's 4 points in, there's $20 million -- 4 cuts that might be $20 million. Again, that's just answering your question about the Fed.

另一件事也是，你已經得到了成長——因為他們今年成長了。這不僅是因為費率上升，還因為在過渡服務協議期間，再保險應收帳款從 Willis 的帳簿轉移到我們的帳簿上。所以你就有動力了。我認為你想要了解的是這個數字對利率變化的敏感度。我想說的是，聯準會每年在美國降息 500 萬美元，這是對價格敏感的。因此，如果有 4 個點，則有 2000 萬美元——4 次削減可能有 2000 萬美元。再說一次，這只是回答你關於聯準會的問題。

How the other central banks, what they do with their policy next year, I just don't have that number right off the top of my head. But when you asked about the Fed, think about it as $5 million per cut.

其他央行如何，他們明年會如何制定政策，我只是不知道這個數字。但當你問及聯準會時，請考慮每次降息 500 萬美元。

Excellent. Just a follow-up on that table for '23. And what quarter did the services agreement with WTW shift? Because I assume that would have meant -- change July 1. So that's -- so when we're looking at the third quarter and fourth quarter, that's more normalized under going forward operating conditions, correct?

出色的。只是 23 年該表的後續行動。與 WTW 的服務協議是在哪一季發生變化的？因為我認為這意味著——7 月 1 日改變。所以，當我們考慮第三季和第四季時，在未來的營運條件下，這會更加正常化，對嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Thank you for that clarification.

謝謝你的澄清。

Yes, it's important for -- yes, okay. You've got the premium finance just to make sure you know that there's expenses associated with premium finance that's down there. So that's a spread business. But you get -- gross is up. We get the revenues up above, and then we get the -- we have the operating expenses and the interest costs down below in operational.

是的，這很重要——是的，好吧。您擁有高級融資只是為了確保您知道那裡有與高級融資相關的費用。所以這是一項傳播業務。但你會發現——毛利率上升了。我們把收入放在上面，然後我們把營運費用和利息成本放在下面。

That's excellent detail. I appreciate that. And then I don't -- there's a bigger picture question I have before I get there. I can't -- I'm hung up on the clean energy tax credit carryforward balance, which caught me by surprise going up. And I know there's obviously a revised approach towards your tax credits here. But without getting into detailed commentary on the changes and the nuances and the tax, is it your expectation going forward that this -- that you're still going to be pulling down $150 million or more of tax credits from clean energy going forward? And then is that $867 million just related to the clean energy? Or is there other things in that?

這是非常好的細節。我很感激。然後我不——在我到達那裡之前我有一個更大的問題。我不能——我對清潔能源稅收抵免結轉餘額耿耿於懷，它的上升讓我感到驚訝。我知道這裡的稅收抵免顯然有一個修改過的方法。但是，在不對這些變化、細微差別和稅收進行詳細評論的情況下，您是否期望今後仍將從清潔能源中取消 1.5 億美元或更多的稅收抵免？那麼這 8.67 億美元只是與清潔能源有關嗎？還是這裡面還有其他的東西？

All right. So two things. You can see on Page 5, we have reaffirmed that we think that there'd be about $150 million worth of utilization of that balance in '24. And maybe when you get to '25, '26, '27 is somewhere around $180 million of utilization in a year. So you need to think about it coming in over the next 4 years. There is a very small other balance of credits in there that I would say is a rounding there, and it has to do with when we construct our home office building. But for all intents and purposes, consider these credits to be from our clean energy work.

好的。所以有兩件事。您可以在第 5 頁看到，我們重申，我們認為 24 年該餘額的使用價值約為 1.5 億美元。也許到了 '25、'26、'27 一年的利用率約為 1.8 億美元。因此，您需要考慮未來 4 年的情況。那裡還有一個非常小的其他貸方餘額，我想說的是那裡的四捨五入，這與我們建造家庭辦公大樓的時間有關。但無論出於何種意圖和目的，請考慮這些積分來自我們的清潔能源工作。

Great. So pivoting back to the bigger picture question is, I'm going to focus on reinsurance because last year was one of the most challenging reinsurance renewal periods in our lifetimes. And especially on the cat side, I should say. And clearly, based on your commentary and others, it seems like it's going to be more normal this year. It seems like the lift you might get from the pricing or rate component is going to be a lot less this year than it was last year. So I don't want to get too hung up on, and I realize casualty has its own cadence. But I was just curious about your response to that observation and how you think it might work with Gallagher?

偉大的。因此，回到更大的問題是，我將專注於再保險，因為去年是我們一生中最具挑戰性的再保險續保時期之一。我應該說，尤其是在貓方面。顯然，根據您和其他人的評論，今年的情況似乎會更加正常。看來今年你從定價或費率部分獲得的提升將比去年少很多。所以我不想太糾結，而且我意識到傷亡有它自己的節奏。但我只是好奇你對這一觀察的反應，以及你認為這對加拉格爾有何作用？

Well, first of all, let me just say that when I look back, I can't tell you how proud I am of the team. We came into a year, new to the organization, we've got some expertise for sure that got paid, but it was very difficult a year ago. And we basically, in a tough environment, took care of our clients. And I think that's really -- we learned a lot all of us from that. And then we come around to this year. Yes, the supply and demand balance was a little easier, but what you've got now is a group of our clients that, number one, the price is up; and number two, demand is up.

好吧，首先，我想說的是，當我回顧過去時，我無法告訴你我為這支球隊感到多麼自豪。我們進入了新的一年，對組織來說是新的，我們肯定有一些專業知識並得到了報酬，但一年前這非常困難。基本上，我們在艱難的環境中照顧了我們的客戶。我認為這確實是——我們所有人都從中學到了很多東西。然後我們回到今年。是的，供需平衡稍微容易一些，但現在我們有一群客戶，第一，價格上漲了；第二，價格上漲了。第二，需求增加。

So you've got pricing not coming down and people looking and saying, no, okay, it's not as sloppy as it was a year ago, I'd like to get more of that. And we saw a bunch of that at 1/1. Remember, about 45% of our business is book 1/1. So the year when it comes to cat property is pretty much in the bank. And it's been a great year. Easier to place than last year, but as I said, demand up and pricing up. So it still remains a very good market for us, and one in which there aren't that many people, Greg, that can do what we do for our clients. And our larger competitors are very, very good. But it falls off pretty quick after us.

因此，價格沒有下降，人們會說，不，好吧，它不像一年前那麼草率，我希望得到更多。我們在 1 月 1 日看到了很多這樣的情況。請記住，我們大約 45% 的業務是圖書 1/1。因此，對於貓的財產來說，這一年幾乎是有希望的。這是美好的一年。比去年更容易放置，但正如我所說，需求增加，價格上漲。因此，對我們來說，這仍然是一個非常好的市場，而且格雷格，沒有那麼多人可以為我們的客戶做我們所做的事情。我們較大的競爭對手非常非常優秀。但它在我們之後很快就掉下來了。

And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Andrew Kligerman 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

I just want to clarify, Doug, when you were saying $5 million per rate cut, just define what you meant by rate cut, how much rate gets cut?

我只是想澄清一下，道格，當你說每次降息 500 萬美元時，請定義你所說的降息是什麼意思，降息多少？

25 basis points.

25個基點。

How many?

多少？

25. They do at 25. I was referring to a rate cut of 25 basis points.

25. 他們在 25 時這樣做。我指的是降息 25 個基點。

Per 25 bps. Perfect. And then with respect to Gallagher Re, could you talk a bit about how the cross-selling with Risk Management is playing in? Is that a big driver? And also, I understand you're going to be moving into facultative reinsurance and -- or maybe you've been doing that. What kind of tailwinds do those provide to 2024?

每 25 bps。完美的。然後，關於 Gallagher Re，您能否談談與風險管理的交叉銷售是如何發揮作用的？這算大司機嗎？而且，我知道您將進入臨時再保險領域，或者也許您一直在這樣做。這些將為 2024 年帶來什麼樣的動力？

Well, I mean, first of all, I have to say that the reinsurance team has been incredibly pleased with and nicely surprised by the amount of interaction with our retail team around the world. And when we did the deal, we told the team and ourselves that we thought there was a considerable benefit from having both sides of the equation under one roof, and that is playing out over and over and over again.

嗯，我的意思是，首先，我必須說，再保險團隊對與我們世界各地的零售團隊的互動感到非常滿意和驚訝。當我們完成這筆交易時，我們告訴團隊和我們自己，我們認為將等式的雙方放在一個屋簷下會帶來相當大的好處，而且這種情況正在一遍又一遍地發生。

As you know, we're very, very strong in our niche or niche marketing, and that's a global play. And the capability to have the reinsurance perspective in those meetings, and then we're the largest player in the pooling sector for public clients in the United States. We kind of thought we had that pretty well nailed. Not a lot to learn. Our reinsurance team has added a tremendous amount of value and helped us add cover for the pools and revenue for our retailers and revenue for our reinsurance people. So it's been an incredible 2-year journey, and we're just getting started in terms of the opportunity to play together in the Sandbox. What was the other question, Andrew?

如您所知，我們在利基市場或利基行銷方面非常非常強大，這是一個全球性的遊戲。如果我們能夠在這些會議中從再保險的角度看待問題，那麼我們就成為美國公共客戶池領域最大的參與者。我們認為我們已經把這件事搞定了。要學的東西不多。我們的再保險團隊增加了巨大的價值，並幫助我們增加了保險池的保險範圍、零售商的收入以及再保險人員的收入。所以這是一段令人難以置信的兩年旅程，而我們才剛開始有機會在沙盒中一起玩。安德魯，另一個問題是什麼？

Facultative...

兼任...

Facultative -- but of course, now coming along with treaty clients and having our retailers -- here is an example of what you're talking about, where retailers are trying to get things done and oftentimes it's hard to place areas like property, et cetera. We are seeing our facultative opportunities grow. No, it's not brand new. But we are organizing ourselves better in the fac world. And I think we're getting -- we're in a better position today than 6 months ago to go out to our insurance carrier customers and our trading partners and say, we want to participate in this. We want to help you. So we are seeing an uptick in opportunities.

兼任 - 但當然，現在與條約客戶一起並擁有我們的零售商 - 這是您所談論的一個例子，零售商正在努力完成工作，但通常很難放置諸如財產等領域等等。我們看到我們的兼職機會正在增加。不，這不是全新的。但我們在事實世界中正在更好地組織自己。我認為我們今天比 6 個月前處於更好的位置，可以向我們的保險公司客戶和貿易夥伴表示，我們希望參與其中。我們想幫助您。因此，我們看到機會增加。

Lot of tailwinds there. Shifting over to Risk Management and the organic change in fees. I mean, just -- it seems terrific. And I'm just wondering on the claims management side, what kind of carriers are you growing with? Are they the large ones? Or are they the small ones? Like where are you seeing the most growth in claims management?

那裡有很多順風。轉向風險管理和費用的有機變化。我的意思是，只是——看起來棒極了。我只是想知道在理賠管理方面，你們與什麼樣的運營商一起成長？他們是大的嗎？還是他們是小人？例如您認為理賠管理成長最快的地方在哪裡？

But you're seeing two things: one, our historical play in the Risk Management accounts, where you've got large accounts, you name it, whatever the large hotel chains or what have you, that are procuring our business on their accounts. And there's -- we've got a great, great year in that regard, and that includes public sector clients as well. And then as you know, we have over the last decade or so really focused on outsourcing of claims from insurance companies.

但你會看到兩件事：第一，我們在風險管理帳戶中的歷史表現，你擁有大量帳戶，你能想到的，無論大型連鎖酒店或其他什麼，都在透過他們的帳戶採購我們的業務。在這方面，我們度過了非常非常好的一年，其中也包括公共部門客戶。如您所知，在過去十年左右的時間裡，我們真正專注於保險公司索賠的外包。

And I don't have liberty on this call to name some of those because some of those carriers are pretty well-known carriers and not one that I necessarily have the approval to be touting. But from inside the organization, you look at some of these carriers you go, it's fantastic. And then, of course, the regional small companies that would like to expand that don't want to add infrastructure, they think they've got an opportunity in a given stage or geography. They don't want to be putting a lot of boots on the ground. We're picking those up as well. So the team at GB is, in my opinion, just outperformed expectations every single year.

我在這次電話會議上沒有自由說出其中一些運營商的名字，因為其中一些運營商是相當知名的運營商，而不是我必須獲得批准來宣傳的運營商。但從組織內部來看，你會看到其中一些運營商，這非常棒。當然，那些想要擴張但不想增加基礎設施的區域性小公司，他們認為在特定的階段或地理位置有機會。他們不想把太多的靴子放在地上。我們也在挑選這些。因此，在我看來，英國團隊每年的表現都超出了預期。

No, it just seems like in the carriers, I mean, there's just a lot of runway there.

不，我的意思是，似乎在航母中，那裡只有很多跑道。

Well, let me put it this way, Andrew. I really believe this. I believe that it will not be unusual, and I believe that people will ask. Did insurance companies pay their own claims? Why would they do that? When I sit with some of our insurance company partners and explain to them that Gallagher Bassett pays substantially more claims in numeric numbers and substantially more dollars than they do in claims by line of cover, by geography, not just in the U.S., the first reaction is oftentimes shock. And again, I won't mention any names of carriers. They go no, no.

好吧，讓我這樣說，安德魯。我真的相信這一點。我相信這不會有什麼異常，也相信人們會問。保險公司是否自行支付理賠費用？他們為什麼要那樣做？當我與我們的一些保險公司合作夥伴坐在一起並向他們解釋加拉格爾·巴塞特支付的索賠金額和金額比他們按保險範圍、地理位置（而不僅僅是在美國）支付的索賠要多得多時，第一個反應常常是震驚。再說一遍，我不會提及任何運營商的名稱。他們說不，不。

Look, if you put a capital structure around GB and called it an insurance company, it'd be 1 of the 5 top insurance companies probably in the world. Think about that in terms of the amount of claim work that's coming through. And our focus, and this is, I think, really key. And what we're selling and we believe, proving day in and day out is if you outsource your claim work to us, whether you are a large risk management account through self-insuring or whether you're a carrier, your outcomes will be superior. And if I look at an insurance company CEO and saying, "I think I'm worth or could help you find 2 points of ROE, it could be pretty dramatic.

聽著，如果你把英國的資本結構看成是一家保險公司，那麼它可能是世界上 5 家頂級保險公司之一。考慮一下正在處理的索賠工作量。我認為，我們的重點非常關鍵。我們所銷售的產品，我們相信，日復一日地證明，如果您將索賠工作外包給我們，無論您是透過自我保險進行的大型風險管理帳戶，還是承運人，您的結果將是優越的。如果我看著保險公司的執行長並說：「我認為我值得或可以幫助你找到 2 個點的 ROE，這可能是相當戲劇性的。

Maybe if I could just squeak one last one in on the contingent revenues. They were up 30% in the quarter. Just given it was such a great year for underwriting, do you see that kind of being flattish as we go into '24, when you provided your 7% to 9% guidance, maybe that impact becomes flattish in the scope of it all?

也許如果我能從或有收入中賺到最後一筆就好了。他們本季上漲了 30%。鑑於今年對於承保來說是如此偉大的一年，當我們進入24 年時，當您提供7% 至9% 的指導時，您是否看到這種平淡的情況，也許這種影響在整個範圍內變得平淡？

No, I said it -- I would say it would be in that same 7% to 9% range. I'm not going to see it outperforming that. And yes, we were pleasantly surprised by a few extra million bucks, and we thought we were going to get there.

不，我說過——我會說它會在同樣的 7% 到 9% 範圍內。我不會看到它的表現超越它。是的，我們對額外的幾百萬美元感到驚喜，我們認為我們會實現這一目標。

By the way, look through that number and see what it's telling you as a potential owner. Our book of business is superior to the competition. That's interesting, isn't it?

順便說一句，請查看這個數字，看看它告訴你作為潛在所有者的資訊。我們的業務手冊優於競爭對手。這很有趣，不是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Yaron Kinar 和 Jefferies 的對話。

First question I have and forgive me it's a bit nitpicky here. But in Brokerage organic, I know the organic came in line with December guide. But I think contingents were a bit better than you were expecting. You were already accounting for the life case timing and the 606 accounting. So it seems like there may have been something there that came in a little bit lighter than expectations? Or am I thinking about it incorrectly?

我的第一個問題請原諒我這裡有點挑剔。但在經紀有機方面，我知道有機符合 12 月指南。但我認為特遣隊比你預期的要好一些。您已經考慮了生命案例時間安排和 606 會計。所以看起來可能有些東西比預期的輕？還是我的想法不正確？

Maybe there's $5 million less than we had hoped on a few of them. But it's -- I mean, when you're looking at a $2 billion quarter, $5 million, it does move the percentage a little bit, but it doesn't -- it's not a meaningful that we are a sales organization, I look back last year, we had 11% 1 quarter, we had 7% in another quarter. We had 9%, 7%, 8%. So it bounces around a little bit. So the fact that we brought it in within a 0.5 point or what we're looking at here, you do get some bounce around for a few million bucks here or there.

其中一些項目的投入可能比我們預期的少了 500 萬美元。但它 - 我的意思是，當你看到一個 20 億美元的季度，500 萬美元，它確實稍微改變了百分比，但它沒有 - 我認為我們是一個銷售組織沒有任何意義去年，我們第一季的成長率為11%，另一個季度的成長率為7%。我們有 9%、7%、8%。所以它會稍微反彈。因此，事實上我們將其控制在 0.5 個點以內，或者我們在這裡看到的情況，你確實會在這裡或那裡得到幾百萬美元的反彈。

Okay. And then a couple of quick ones on the CFO commentary. So I am seeing a bit of a slowdown in Brokerage earn-out payables in 2024. Is that just the Willis Re true-up in '23?

好的。然後是一些關於財務長的評論。因此，我看到 2024 年經紀業務獲利應付金額有所放緩。這只是 Willis Re 在 23 年的調整嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay. And then I'm also seeing a meaningful increase in the amortization of intangibles and risk management. Are you expecting any large M&A there? Or did you already conduct...

好的。然後我還看到無形資產攤銷和風險管理顯著增加。您預計那裡會有大型併購嗎？或者你已經進行過...

Yes, we announced by plan manager acquisition here a month or so or 2 months ago. So that's the $60 million worth of revenue in that disability business down in Australia.

是的，我們在大約一個月或兩個月前透過計劃經理在這裡宣布了收購。這就是澳洲殘疾人業務價值 6,000 萬澳元的收入。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的邁克爾沃德 (Michael Ward)。

Maybe just curious on Canada. I think one of your peers mentioned some headwinds there. And I think if we're interpreting the commentary, it sounds like maybe you saw a slowdown, too. Just wondering if you could talk about that dynamic if you think that should persist in '24?

也許只是對加拿大感到好奇。我想你的一位同行提到了一些不利因素。我認為，如果我們解讀評論，聽起來也許你也看到了放緩。只是想知道如果您認為這種情況應該持續到 24 年，您是否可以談論這種動態？

Well, listen, I think they had some -- they were posting 13 points, 14 points of organic growth. The market has shifted up there a little bit. So I think they've been in the mid- to upper mid-single digits for the last 4 or 5 quarters. So I don't see much of a shift going into 2024.

嗯，聽著，我認為他們有一些——他們發布了 13 個點、14 個點的有機增長。市場已經向上移動了一點。所以我認為他們在過去 4 或 5 個季度一直處於中上個位數。因此，我認為 2024 年不會發生太大變化。

Let me pile on that one, if you would, Michael. First of all, Doug, you're right on. They've been killing in Canada. High upper digit organic year in and year out, and now they're about 5%. That makes perfect sense to me, given where they've been. And I think the 5% is a great number.

如果你願意的話，讓我來談談這一點，麥可。首先，道格，你說得對。他們在加拿大一直在殺人。有機率年年維持在高位，現在約 5%。考慮到他們去過的地方，這對我來說非常有意義。我認為 5% 是一個很大的數字。

Yes. We actually had a couple of really great new business opportunity that just didn't fall our way. For some reason, they decided to stay with the incumbent. So I think that if you normalize for those a handful of items, I think they would have had -- add 3 or 4 more points to it.

是的。事實上，我們有幾個非常好的新商機，但我們沒有錯過。出於某種原因，他們決定留在現任者身邊。所以我認為，如果你對這些少數項目進行標準化，我認為他們會再添加 3 或 4 分。

Okay. And then in the CFO commentary, it looked like you guys outperformed your revenue P/C for 2Q '23 acquisition activity and increase the P/C for first quarter for your 2Q '23 acquisition activity. Just wondering is that momentum from Buck or what's driving that?

好的。然後在財務長的評論中，看起來你們的 2Q '23 收購活動的收入 P/C 表現優於你們的收入 P/C，並增加了 2Q '23 收購活動第一季的 P/C。只是想知道巴克的動力是來自巴克還是驅動力是什麼？

All right. Help me understand what you're looking at, again (inaudible) saw. I just didn't track to your question. Sorry about that.

好的。幫助我理解你在看什麼，再次（聽不清楚）看到了。我只是沒有追蹤到你的問題。對於那個很抱歉。

It was just the revenue P/C from 2Q '23. Well, and you increased the 1Q '24 P/C just sort of wondering if that was Buck from 90 to 95?

這只是 2023 年第二季的營收 P/C。好吧，你增加了 24 年第 1 季的 P/C，只是想知道這是否是巴克從 90 到 95？

Listen, it's -- remember, every time we buy something, you're going to get maybe 4 quarters of this disclosure. So as Buck runs that off, we also have Cadence and Eastern that are coming on in fourth quarter '24, but that's -- you can see it there, the 2000 -- second quarter 2,000 it falls away to nothing, right? It goes -- which it would even if it were $5 million a quarter, it's $95 million. So that is what you're seeing there. It's just the run in a Buck that's no longer M&A roll over.

聽著，記住，每次我們購買東西時，您可能會得到此披露的 4 個季度。因此，當 Buck 運行時，我們還有 Cadence 和 Eastern 將在 24 年第四季度推出，但那是 - 你可以在那裡看到它，2000 - 第二季度 2,000 它會消失，對嗎？事實是這樣的——即使每個季度是 500 萬美元，它也會是 9500 萬美元。這就是你所看到的。這只是雄鹿的奔跑，不再是併購的翻滾。

Okay. Awesome. And then maybe just following up on the question from earlier. Did I hear you sort of mention for benefits growth was kind of going to be at the -- or you think it's going to be towards the bottom end of the kind of spectrum across product lines this year?

好的。驚人的。然後也許只是跟進之前的問題。我是否聽到您提到福利增長將處於 - 或者您認為今年將達到整個產品線範圍的底部？

No, I just said they might be running more like 7% versus 9% in some things next year. So that's what I said, they would be more towards that lower end of that 7% to 9% range, just on the nature of their business.

不，我只是說明年在某些事情上他們的比例可能會是 7%，而不是 9%。這就是我所說的，他們會更傾向於 7% 到 9% 範圍的低端，這取決於他們的業務性質。

Pause on that a little (inaudible) inflation that many are starting to worry about. We might have a different answer for you on that one that heats up.

暫停許多人開始擔心的一點（聽不見的）通貨膨脹。對於這個正在升溫的問題，我們可能會為您提供不同的答案。

And our last question is coming from Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的最後一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

I think two really small ball questions. Doug, you talked about why contingents in the fourth quarter a little bit better than the December expectation. But it also sounds like you're not expecting reserve development to be a problem in 2024 if contingent organic matches core organic. Am I thinking about that right?

我認為有兩個非常小的問題。 Doug，您談到了為什麼第四季的情況比 12 月的預期要好一些。但如果特遣隊有機與核心有機相匹配，您似乎不認為儲備開發在 2024 年會成為問題。我這樣想對嗎？

No, I didn't say that. I think that on the casualty lines, I think that would impact our base commission. I don't see it really eroding our supplemental or our contingents. If we do have a reserving, again, I don't like you to use word crisis, but if there's something like that, that happens may be something that, but I don't see that eroding the contingent commission substantially next year as they take rational and orderly rate increases.

不，我沒那麼說。我認為在傷亡方面，我認為這會影響我們的基本佣金。我不認為這會真正削弱我們的補充部隊或特遣隊。如果我們確實有保留，我不喜歡你使用「危機」這個詞，但如果有類似的事情，可能會發生這種情況，但我不認為這會大幅侵蝕明年的臨時佣金，因為他們合理有序加息。

Okay. Understood. And then just -- I may have missed this. But the increasing detail on Page 6 of the commentary where you break out the individual components. Should we assume that those are all, I don't know, 90% plus margin revenue?

好的。明白了。然後——我可能錯過了這一點。但評論的第 6 頁越來越詳細，您可以在其中分解各個組件。我們是否應該假設這些都是（我不知道）90% 加利潤收入？

No, that -- my point was on the premium funding. There's -- the margin on that would be very similar to our Brokerage business. So that's not -- equity interest is not that big of a number. We just don't have that many 100%-owned entities on it. And then interest income, yes, there's margin on that. But remember, interest income is to rise -- is there because there's inflation out there. And we do have inflation in some of our categories like travel and entertainment, for instance, a substantial inflation in that. So if that -- if interest rates come down, then I would expect inflation on travel to come down also. So there are some offsets on it, but the premium funding business is 30 points of margin, something like that.

不，我的觀點是溢價資金。其利潤率與我們的經紀業務非常相似。所以這並不是──股權並不是一個大數字。我們只是沒有那麼多 100% 持股的實體。然後是利息收入，是的，還有利潤。但請記住，利息收入將會增加——是因為有通貨膨脹嗎？我們的某些類別確實存在通貨膨脹，例如旅行和娛樂，其中存在大幅通貨膨脹。因此，如果利率下降，那麼我預計旅行通膨也會下降。所以有一些抵消，但溢價融資業務是 30 個點的保證金，類似的東西。

Thanks, Meyer. And let me just say thank you again for joining us this afternoon. And to our 52,000-plus colleagues across the globe, thank you for another fantastic year. Our achievements are due to all of your hard work and dedication.

謝謝，邁耶。讓我再次感謝您今天下午加入我們。感謝我們全球 52,000 多名同事，感謝你們又度過了美好的一年。我們的成就歸功於你們所有人的辛勤工作和奉獻。

As thrilled as I am with our fourth quarter and full year '23 performance, I get even more excited when I think about our future. We operate in an essential industry for the economy within a fragmented market, having leader data and analytics and niche expertise and limited global market share. So I believe our opportunities for future growth are immense. And while I always say, we're just getting started. It's pretty cool to be Gallagher. We look forward to seeing you at our mid-March IR Day. Thanks for being with us today.

儘管我對 23 年第四季和全年的業績感到非常興奮，但當我想到我們的未來時，我會更加興奮。我們在一個分散的市場中從事經濟的重要行業，擁有領先的數據和分析以及利基專業知識和有限的全球市場份額。因此，我相信我們未來的成長機會是巨大的。雖然我總是說，我們才剛開始。成為加拉格爾真是太酷了。我們期待在三月中旬的投資者關係日見到您。感謝您今天和我們在一起。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。