Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

下午好，歡迎來到 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （接線員說明）今天的電話正在錄音中。如果您有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers stated in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and risk factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

本次電話會議期間發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。公司不承擔更新本次電話會議上提供的信息或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的有關前瞻性陳述和風險因素部分的信息。

In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

此外，有關本次電話會議上討論的非 GAAP 措施的對賬以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益發布和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Chairman, President and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很高興介紹 J. Patrick Gallagher，Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官。Gallagher 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter '23 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO, as well as the heads of our operating divisions.

非常感謝。下午好，感謝您加入我們的 23 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的首席財務官 Doug Howell 以及我們運營部門的負責人。

We had an excellent first quarter to start the year. For our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 12% growth in revenue; 9.7% organic growth; GAAP earnings per share of $2.52; adjusted earnings per share of $3.30, up 12% year-over-year; reported net earnings margin of 21%; adjusted EBITDAC margin of 38%, up 29 basis points. We also completed 10 mergers totaling $69 million of estimated annualized revenue. And we were recognized as the World's Most Ethical Company for the 13th time, an outstanding quarter from the team.

我們在今年的第一季度表現出色。對於我們合併的經紀和風險管理部門，我們公佈了 12% 的收入增長；有機增長 9.7%； GAAP 每股收益為 2.52 美元；調整後每股收益為 3.30 美元，同比增長 12%；報告的淨利潤率為 21%；調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 38%，上升 29 個基點。我們還完成了 10 項合併，預計年收入總額為 6900 萬美元。我們第 13 次被評為世界最具商業道德公司，這是團隊的一個傑出季度。

Let me give you some more detail on our first quarter performance, starting with our Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 12%. Organic was 9.1%. Acquisition rollover revenues were $61 million. Adjusted EBITDAC growth was 15%, and we posted adjusted EBITDAC margin of 40.4%, right on our March IR Day expectations, a fantastic quarter for the Brokerage team.

讓我從我們的經紀部門開始，向您詳細介紹我們第一季度的業績。報告的收入增長為 12%。有機物為 9.1%。收購展期收入為 6100 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDAC 增長率為 15%，我們公佈調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 40.4%，正好符合我們 3 月 IR Day 的預期，這對經紀團隊來說是一個很棒的季度。

Let me walk you around the world and provide some more detailed commentary on our Brokerage organic, starting with our retail brokerage operations. Our U.S. PC business posted over 7% organic. Core new business was up year-over-year, even growing over the tough renewal compare in D&O lines, while retention was similar to last year's first quarter. Our U.K. PC business also posted more than 7% organic due to strong new business production, stable retention and the continued impact of renewal premium increases. Our combined PC operations in Australia and New Zealand posted organic of 10%. Net new versus lost business was consistent with prior year, and renewal premium increases were ahead of first quarter '22 levels. Rounding out the retail PC business, Canada was up 6% organically, reflecting solid new business and consistent year-over-year retention.

讓我帶您環遊世界，並從我們的零售經紀業務開始，對我們的有機經紀業務提供更詳細的評論。我們的美國 PC 業務有機增長超過 7%。核心新業務同比增長，甚至在 D&O 線的艱難更新比較中有所增長，而保留率與去年第一季度相似。由於強勁的新業務生產、穩定的保留率以及續保費上漲的持續影響，我們的英國 PC 業務也實現了 7% 以上的有機增長。我們在澳大利亞和新西蘭的綜合 PC 業務的有機增長率為 10%。淨新業務與虧損業務與去年持平，續保保費增長高於 22 年第一季度的水平。除了零售 PC 業務之外，加拿大有機增長 6%，反映出穩健的新業務和穩定的同比保留率。

Our global employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of nearly 7%. New business remains strong and client retention was excellent. We saw growth across many of our practice groups, with particular strength in HR consulting and pharmacy benefits.

我們的全球員工福利經紀和諮詢業務有機增長近 7%。新業務依然強勁，客戶保留率非常高。我們看到我們的許多業務團隊都在增長，尤其是在人力資源諮詢和藥房福利方面。

Shifting to our wholesale and specialty businesses. Risk Placement Services, our U.S. wholesale operations, posted organic of nearly 8%. This includes 16% growth in open brokerage and about 5% organic in our MGA programs and binding businesses. New business production and retention were both consistent with last year's first quarter. U.K. specialty posted organic of 17% and benefiting from a strong start within aviation and the addition of new teams focused on North American risks.

轉向我們的批發和專業業務。我們的美國批發業務風險配置服務的有機銷售額接近 8%。這包括 16% 的開放經紀業務增長以及約 5% 的 MGA 計劃和綁定業務有機增長。新業務生產和保留都與去年第一季度一致。英國專業業務的有機增長率為 17%，受益於航空領域的強勁開局以及專注於北美風險的新團隊的加入。

And finally, reinsurance. Gallagher Re posted 12% organic, reflecting new business wins, great retention and a hardening property reinsurance market, outstanding results from the Gallagher Re team.

最後，再保險。 Gallagher Re 公佈了 12% 的有機增長率，反映出新業務的勝利、良好的保留率和堅挺的財產再保險市場，以及 Gallagher Re 團隊的出色業績。

Pulling it all together, Brokerage segment all inorganic of 9.1%, that's a bit above the top end of our first quarter expectation and a fantastic sales quarter by the team.

綜上所述，經紀部門所有無機業務的佔比為 9.1%，略高於我們第一季度預期的上限，以及團隊出色的銷售季度。

Next, let me provide some thoughts on the PC insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Overall, global first quarter original premiums, that's both rate and exposure combined, were up more than 9%, consistent with the 8% to 10% renewal premium change we had been reporting throughout '22.

接下來，讓我從原保險市場開始，提供一些關於個人電腦保險定價環境的想法。總體而言，全球第一季度原始保費（包括費率和風險敞口）增長超過 9%，與我們在整個 22 年報告的 8% 至 10% 的續保保費變化一致。

Renewal premium increases remain broad-based across nearly all of our major geographies and product lines around the globe. For example, workers' comp is up low single digits. General liability is up mid- to high single digits. Umbrella and package are up in the low double digits. So most lines are trending similar to previous quarters. Two exceptions: first, public D&O where renewal premiums are down a bit; and second, property where renewal premium increases are accelerating. For example, fourth quarter property renewal premiums were up 15%. And through the first 3 months of '23, we have seen increases of 15%, 20% and 17%, respectively.

在我們全球幾乎所有主要地區和產品線中，續保保費的增長仍然普遍。例如，工人的薪酬上漲了低個位數。一般責任高達中高個位數。雨傘和包裹的價格上漲了兩位數。因此，大多數產品線的趨勢與前幾個季度相似。兩個例外：首先，公共 D&O 的續保費略有下降；第二，續保費增長加速的財產。例如，第四季度的財產續保保費上漲了 15%。在 23 年的前 3 個月，我們分別看到了 15%、20% 和 17% 的增長。

So our clients continue to feel cost pressures here due to rising replacement values, increasing frequency and severity of weather-related events and hard reinsurance conditions. We are not seeing signs that these loss cost and profitability pressures are likely to abate in the near term. So as we head into our largest primary insurance property quarter, we are focused on helping our clients navigate and mitigate these premium increases.

因此，由於重置價值上升、天氣相關事件的頻率和嚴重程度增加以及再保險條件艱難，我們的客戶繼續在這裡感受到成本壓力。我們沒有看到這些損失成本和盈利壓力可能在短期內減弱的跡象。因此，當我們進入最大的主要保險財產季度時，我們專注於幫助我們的客戶駕馭和減輕這些保費上漲。

Moving to exposures. We are seeing continued strength in our customers' business activity. First quarter midterm policy endorsements, audits and cancellations combined were better than first quarter '22 levels, greater than the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year increases.

轉向曝光。我們看到客戶的業務活動持續強勁。第一季度中期政策批准、審計和取消的總和好於 22 年第一季度的水平，高於連續第八個季度的同比增長。

Shifting to reinsurance. During the heavy Japan-centric April renewals, reinsurance carriers continued to focus on increased pricing and tightening terms and conditions. This was across a broader range of territories and most all lines of business, so an even harder conditions compared to January 1. The casualty treaty market saw orderly renewals and a sufficient supply of capital to fulfill the demand from underwriting enterprises.

轉向再保險。在以日本為中心的 4 月續保期間，再保險公司繼續關注提高定價和收緊條款和條件。這涉及更廣泛的地區和幾乎所有業務線，因此與 1 月 1 日相比，條件更加艱難。傷亡條約市場出現有序更新，資金供應充足，可以滿足承保企業的需求。

The property market continued to experience its recent challenges due to more limited underwriting capital. There were some green shoots in the ILS issuance, although pricing was typically less attractive to seasons than the traditional markets. Overall, there wasn't much new capacity entering the property market. Regardless, our teams navigated the hard market and customers, again, managed to secure satisfactory cover. Those interested in more detailed commentary can find our April 1 View market report on our website.

由於承銷資本更加有限，房地產市場繼續經歷近期的挑戰。 ILS 發行中出現了一些萌芽，儘管定價通常不如傳統市場對季節有吸引力。總體而言，進入房地產市場的新產能並不多。無論如何，我們的團隊在艱難的市場中游刃有餘，客戶再次成功獲得了令人滿意的保障。對更詳細的評論感興趣的人可以在我們的網站上找到我們 4 月 1 日的市場報告。

Looking forward, there is good reason to expect a cautious underwriting stance from carriers for the foreseeable future as they contemplate recent weather events, replacement cost increases, social inflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions into their view of loss cost trend. So we expect insurance and reinsurance pricing increases to continue throughout '23 and, while it's early, likely into '24.

展望未來，有充分的理由預計承運人在可預見的未來會採取謹慎的承保立場，因為他們將最近的天氣事件、重置成本增加、社會通脹和持續的地緣政治緊張局勢納入他們對損失成本趨勢的看法。因此，我們預計保險和再保險定價將在整個 23 年持續上漲，雖然現在還很早，但可能會持續到 24 年。

We also remain optimistic on our customers' business activity during '23. We have yet to see any significant shifts in our daily indications of client business activity thus far in April. We are also seeing encouraging employment levels for our benefits clients, suggesting the economic backdrop for '23 remains broadly favorable.

我們也對客戶在 23 年期間的業務活動保持樂觀。到目前為止，我們尚未看到 4 月份客戶業務活動的日常指標有任何重大變化。我們還看到我們的福利客戶的就業水平令人鼓舞，這表明 23 世紀的經濟背景仍然普遍有利。

Recent data shows the U.S. unemployment rate declining, continued growth in nonfarm payrolls and a very wide gap between the amount of job openings and the number of people unemployed and looking for work. So I see demand for our products and services around attracting, retaining and motivating workforces remaining strong. As we sit here today, we continue to see full year '23 Brokerage segment organic in that 7% to 9% range, and that would be another fantastic year.

近期數據顯示，美國失業率下降，非農就業人數持續增長，職位空缺數量與失業和求職人數之間的差距非常大。因此，我認為圍繞吸引、留住和激勵員工隊伍對我們的產品和服務的需求依然強勁。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們繼續看到全年 23 年的經紀業務在 7% 到 9% 的範圍內有機增長，那將是又一個美妙的一年。

Moving on to mergers and acquisitions. We had an active first quarter completing 10 new tuck-in brokerage mergers, representing about $69 million of estimated annualized revenues. I'd like to thank all of our new partners for joining us and extend a very warm welcome to our growing Gallagher family of professionals.

繼續併購。我們在第一季度表現活躍，完成了 10 項新的經紀業務合併，估計年收入約為 6900 萬美元。我要感謝我們所有的新合作夥伴加入我們，並熱烈歡迎我們不斷壯大的 Gallagher 專業人士大家庭。

Also in April, we officially welcomed the former Buck colleagues. Combined with our existing employee benefits brokerage and HR consulting business, we will enhance our offerings and be better positioned to deliver superior human capital solutions for all of our clients.

同樣在 4 月，我們正式迎來了前 Buck 同事。結合我們現有的員工福利經紀和人力資源諮詢業務，我們將增強我們的產品並更好地為所有客戶提供卓越的人力資本解決方案。

Moving to our pipeline. We have nearly 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing more than $350 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice of who to partner with, and we'll be very excited if they choose to join Gallagher.

轉移到我們的管道。我們已簽署或正在準備近 40 份投資意向書，年收入超過 3.5 億美元。優秀的公司總是可以選擇與誰合作，如果他們選擇加入 Gallagher，我們將非常高興。

Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. First quarter organic growth was 14.3%, ahead of our expectations due to continued growth from recent business wins and some revenue from first quarter New Zealand cyclone and flooding. We also saw core new arising claims increased in the low single digits during the quarter for existing clients across both workers' comp and liability. First quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was also strong at 19.2%, ended up a bit ahead of our March expectations. Looking forward, we see full year '23 organic around 12% to 13% and adjusted EBITDAC margins holding at or above 19%, and that would be another excellent year.

轉到我們的風險管理部門，Gallagher Bassett。第一季度有機增長率為 14.3%，超出了我們的預期，這是由於最近的業務勝利帶來的持續增長以及第一季度新西蘭颶風和洪水帶來的一些收入。我們還看到，本季度現有客戶的工人賠償金和責任險的核心新增索賠均以低個位數增長。第一季度調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率也很強勁，達到 19.2%，略高於我們 3 月份的預期。展望未來，我們預計 23 年全年的有機增長率約為 12% 至 13%，調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率保持在 19% 或以上，這將是又一個出色的一年。

And I'll conclude with some comments regarding our bedrock culture. I'm very pleased that just a few weeks ago, we were recognized as the world's most ethical company for the 13th time. We're honored to be one of only 135 companies globally to receive this award from the Ethisphere Institute. Our 45,000-plus colleagues embrace and celebrate the unique values that we have instilled in our company. The 25 tenets articulated in The Gallagher Way continue to drive our global team's success today, and we believe that our unique culture is a key differentiator and a competitive advantage. It's a strong culture of client focus, excellence and inclusion and it continues to drive us forward. That is The Gallagher Way.

最後，我將對我們的基石文化發表一些評論。我很高興就在幾週前，我們第 13 次被評為全球最具商業道德的公司。我們很榮幸成為全球僅有的 135 家公司之一，獲得了 Ethisphere Institute 頒發的該獎項。我們的 45,000 多名同事擁護並慶祝我們灌輸給公司的獨特價值觀。 The Gallagher Way 中闡述的 25 條原則繼續推動我們全球團隊今天的成功，我們相信我們獨特的文化是一個關鍵的差異化因素和競爭優勢。這是一種以客戶為中心、卓越和包容的強大文化，它繼續推動我們前進。這就是加拉格爾之路。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

好的。我現在停下來，把它交給道格。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and good afternoon, everyone. As Pat said, an excellent start to the year. Today, I'll begin with some comments using both our earnings release and our CFO commentary document that we posted on our website. I'll touch on organic margins and provide some modeling helpers for the remainder of '23, then I'll finish up with my typical comments on cash, M&A capacity and capital management.

謝謝帕特，大家下午好。正如帕特所說，這是今年的一個良好開端。今天，我將使用我們在網站上發布的收益發布和首席財務官評論文件發表一些評論。我將談到有機利潤率，並為 23 年的剩餘時間提供一些建模幫助，然後我將完成我對現金、併購能力和資本管理的典型評論。

Okay, let's flip to Page 2 of the earnings release. All-in brokerage organic of 9.1%, call it right at the top end of the range we foreshadowed at our March 16 IR day. A nice finish from our London specialty operations and a little upside from reinsurance and benefits.

好的，讓我們翻到收益發布的第 2 頁。全包經紀有機率為 9.1%，稱其恰好位於我們在 3 月 16 日 IR 日預示的範圍的頂端。我們倫敦的專業業務取得了不錯的成績，再保險和福利也帶來了一點好處。

One call-out on that table, contingents didn't grow organically this quarter for 3 reasons. First, there's a low geography between supplementals and contingents, call that about $2 million. Second, there was a bit of positive development in Q1 '22 from the prior year '21 estimates, call that $3 million, and again, that's back in first quarter '22, causing a little difficult compare. And third, we are not expecting one of our programs to pay as large of a contingent here in '23 because of underlying loss ratio deterioration, call that maybe towards $1 million. Regardless, base organic at 9.5% and all-in at 9.1%, that's a fantastic quarter by the team.

在那張桌子上的一個電話，本季度特遣隊沒有有機增長，原因有 3 個。首先，補充和特遣隊之間的地理位置很低，大約 200 萬美元。其次，與上一年的 21 年估計相比，22 年第一季度有一些積極的發展，稱之為 300 萬美元，而且，這又回到了 22 年第一季度，導致比較困難。第三，由於潛在的損失率惡化，我們預計我們的一個項目不會在 23 年支付如此大的費用，這可能會達到 100 萬美元。無論如何，9.5% 的基本有機率和 9.1% 的全押率，這對團隊來說是一個很棒的季度。

Flipping to Page 4 of the earnings release to the Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. We posted 40.4% for the quarter. Before FX, that's up 56 basis points and FX adjusted up 14 basis points over first quarter '22. That's right in line with our March IR Day expectations when we discussed that first quarter '22 expenses were lower than our expected run rate, simply because we were still in the Omicron portion of the pandemic and that our tuck-in acquisitions are just not as seasonally weighted. Thus, they don't roll in at 40 points of margin here in the first quarter. If you levelize for those 2 items, our margins expanded approximately 110 basis points.

翻到經紀部門調整後的 EBITDAC 表的收益發布的第 4 頁。我們公佈了本季度的 40.4%。在 FX 之前，這比 22 年第一季度上漲了 56 個基點，而 FX 調整了 14 個基點。這與我們在 22 年第一季度的支出低於我們預期的運行率時對 3 月 IR 日的預期完全一致，這僅僅是因為我們仍處於大流行的 Omicron 部分，而我們的收購併不像季節性加權。因此，他們不會在第一季度在這里以 40 個百分點的優勢進入。如果你對這 2 個項目進行均衡，我們的利潤率將擴大約 110 個基點。

Maybe looking at like a bridge from first quarter '22 will be helpful. Investment income gave us 90 basis points of margin expansion. The normalization of Omicron T&E expenses and inflation on all T&E cost us 80 basis points. The seasonal impact from roll-in M&A used about 40 basis points. Organic gave us 70 basis points of expansion and some additional wages and IT investments used about 25 basis points. Follow that bridge, and the math gets you close to that 14 basis points of FX adjusted expansion in the quarter.

也許看著 22 年第一季度的橋樑會有所幫助。投資收益使我們的利潤率擴大了 90 個基點。 Omicron T&E 費用的正常化和所有 T&E 的通貨膨脹使我們損失了 80 個基點。轉入併購的季節性影響使用了大約 40 個基點。 Organic 為我們提供了 70 個基點的擴張，一些額外的工資和 IT 投資使用了大約 25 個基點。沿著那座橋走，數學會讓你接近本季度外匯調整後擴張的 14 個基點。

Looking forward, it's still early, yet with a fantastic first quarter combined with Pat's upbeat commentary makes us more bullish on hitting that full year brokerage organic in the 7% to 9% range and posting adjusted margins up 60 to 80 basis points.

展望未來，現在還為時過早，但第一季度的出色表現加上 Pat 的樂觀評論讓我們更加看好全年經紀業務的有機利潤率將達到 7% 至 9%，並將調整後的利潤率提高 60 至 80 個基點。

Two small heads up on that: first, getting to that 7% to 9% organic for the full year might be a little lumpy over the next 3 quarters given the large life case we sold in Q2 '22 and then the 606 deferred revenue accounting in our fourth quarter. We discussed both of those with you last year, so there's no new news here, just a reminder for your modeling. Second, the 60 to 80 basis points of margin expansion is before the roll-in impact of Buck, which recall, naturally runs lower margins. So when you include Buck, the math would show full year margin expansion in that 20 to 30 basis points range.

有兩個小提示：首先，考慮到我們在 22 年第二季度售出的大型生命案例以及 606 的遞延收入會計，在接下來的 3 個季度中，全年達到 7% 到 9% 的有機率可能會有點不穩定在我們的第四季度。我們去年和你討論過這兩個問題，所以這裡沒有新消息，只是提醒你的建模。其次，利潤率擴張 60 到 80 個基點是在 Buck 的滾動影響之前，召回自然會降低利潤率。所以當你包括 Buck 時，數學會顯示全年利潤率在 20 到 30 個基點範圍內擴張。

So now moving on to the Risk Management segment and the organic table at the bottom of Page 4. As Pat said, an excellent quarter, 14.3% organic growth. We did get a little tailwind this quarter because Omicron caused fewer claims arising in Q1 '22, and we also had some New Zealand cat claims activity. But most of this excellent result comes from strong new business wins in the second half last year.

因此，現在轉到第 4 頁底部的風險管理部分和有機表。正如帕特所說，這是一個出色的季度，有機增長 14.3%。本季度我們確實得到了一些順風，因為 Omicron 在 22 年第一季度引起的索賠減少了，而且我們也有一些新西蘭貓索賠活動。但這一出色的成績大部分來自去年下半年強勁的新業務勝利。

As for margins, flip to Page 5 of the earnings release. Risk Management posted adjusted Q1 EBITDAC margins of 19.2%. That's up 177 basis points over last year. As we look forward, we're seeing the rest of the year organic in that 12% to 13% range and full year margins now finishing a bit above 19%. That would be the best full year adjusted margin in Gallagher Bassett's 6-decade history, another demonstration of the benefits of scale, intellectual capital, technology and operational excellence.

至於利潤率，請翻到收益發布的第 5 頁。風險管理公佈調整後的第一季度 EBITDAC 利潤率為 19.2%。這比去年增加了 177 個基點。展望未來，我們看到今年剩餘時間的有機增長率在 12% 到 13% 之間，全年利潤率現在略高於 19%。這將是 Gallagher Bassett 6 年曆史中最好的全年調整後利潤率，再次證明了規模、智力資本、技術和卓越運營的好處。

Let's turn to Page 6 of the earnings release. That's our corporate segment. And also, when you take a look at Pages 3 and 4 of the CFO commentary document, most all of the items are right in line with our March IR Day forecast. Three call-outs on the CFO commentary document. When you see Page 3, you'll see a slight tick-up in our expected book effective tax rate. That's entirely due to the U.K. rate hike to 25% that went effective April 1. But remember, what you're seeing is a book effective tax rate. Our cash taxes paid rate is substantially lower, call that around 10% of our adjusted combined brokerage and risk management EBITDAC. That's because of the tax shield from interest, the amortization of purchase intangibles and the incremental cash flows from our clean energy investments over the coming years.

讓我們轉到收益發布的第 6 頁。那是我們的企業部門。而且，當您查看 CFO 評論文件的第 3 頁和第 4 頁時，大多數項目都與我們的 3 月 IR 日預測一致。 CFO 評論文件中的三個標註。當您看到第 3 頁時，您會看到我們預期的賬面有效稅率略有上升。這完全是由於英國自 4 月 1 日起將利率上調至 25%。但請記住，您看到的是賬面有效稅率。我們的現金納稅率大大降低，大約占我們調整後的綜合經紀業務和風險管理 EBITDAC 的 10%。這是因為利息的稅收保護、購買無形資產的攤銷以及未來幾年我們清潔能源投資的增量現金流。

Page 5 of the CFO commentary shows those tax credits. We have over $700 million as of March 31, and it shows that we're forecasting to use about $180 million to $200 million in '23 with a step-up in '24 and each later year. That's a really nice cash flow sweetener to help fund future M&A.

首席財務官評論的第 5 頁顯示了這些稅收抵免。截至 3 月 31 日，我們有超過 7 億美元，這表明我們預計在 23 年將使用約 1.8 億至 2 億美元，並在 24 年和以後的每一年增加。這是一個非常好的現金流甜味劑，可以幫助為未來的併購提供資金。

Then if you flip back to Page 4 of the CFO commentary document, you'll see that we have a slight beat in the corporate segment this quarter compared to our midpoint, but some timing in that beat. So you'll see full year still about the same as what we forecasted at our March IR Day.

然後，如果您翻回 CFO 評論文件的第 4 頁，您會發現本季度我們在企業部門的表現略高於我們的中點，但在某些時候出現了這種表現。所以你會看到全年仍然與我們在 3 月 IR 日預測的大致相同。

Moving now to Page 6 of the CFO commentary document. That table shows our rollover M&A revenues. It shows $61 million this quarter, which is pretty close to that $63 million we estimated during our March IR Day. And also looking forward, we've now included Buck in that table. But remember, you'll need to add your pick for other future M&A to these estimates.

現在轉到 CFO 評論文件的第 6 頁。該表顯示了我們的滾動併購收入。它顯示本季度為 6100 萬美元，這非常接近我們在 3 月 IR 日估計的 6300 萬美元。展望未來，我們現在已將 Buck 列入該表。但請記住，您需要將您對其他未來併購的選擇添加到這些估計中。

Okay, let me move to some comments on cash, capital management and future M&A. At March 31, available cash on hand was around $1 billion, but note that about $600 million was used to buy Buck in early April, so call it $400 million. This means we estimate that we have about $2 billion more to fund M&A for the rest of this year. And our early look is another $3 billion or more in '24 to fund our M&A program, utilizing only free cash and incremental debt while maintaining our strong investment-grade ratings.

好的，讓我談談對現金、資本管理和未來併購的一些評論。截至 3 月 31 日，手頭可用現金約為 10 億美元，但請注意，約 6 億美元用於在 4 月初購買 Buck，所以稱之為 4 億美元。這意味著我們估計今年剩餘時間我們還有大約 20 億美元用於資助併購。我們的早期目標是在 24 年再投入 30 億美元或更多資金來資助我們的併購計劃，僅使用自由現金和增量債務，同時保持我們強大的投資等級評級。

One final reminder, recall during our March IR Day, we mentioned that we would be reclassifying how we present fiduciary balances on our balance sheet and in our cash flow statement. These REIT classes are purely GAAP geography and we're doing so to better align our presentation with how many other brokers present their statements. You might notice some of that movement in the recast balance sheet on Page 12 of the earnings release. To help you understand all the movements, there will be a comprehensive table in our 10-Q that we will file later next week. Again, all of this is to make our presentation more consistent with most of the other public brokers, and all the change is just a GAAP geography.

最後提醒一下，記得在 3 月的 IR 日期間，我們提到我們將重新分類我們在資產負債表和現金流量表中呈現受託餘額的方式。這些 REIT 類別純粹是 GAAP 地理分佈，我們這樣做是為了更好地使我們的介紹與許多其他經紀人介紹他們的陳述保持一致。您可能會注意到收益發布第 12 頁上重新編制的資產負債表中的一些變化。為了幫助您了解所有走勢，我們將在下週晚些時候提交的 10-Q 中提供一個綜合表格。同樣，所有這些都是為了使我們的介紹與大多數其他公共經紀人更加一致，所有的變化只是一個公認會計原則的地理區域。

So those are my comments. Another terrific quarter. And looking forward, we see strong organic growth, a great pipeline of M&A and continued opportunities for productivity improvements, all fueled by an amazing culture. I believe we are very well positioned to deliver another fantastic year. Back to you, Pat.

以上就是我的意見。另一個很棒的季度。展望未來，我們將看到強勁的有機增長、大量的併購渠道以及不斷提高生產力的機會，所有這一切都受到令人驚嘆的文化的推動。我相信我們已經準備好迎接又一個精彩的一年。回到你身邊，帕特。

Thanks, Doug. Operator, I think we're ready for some questions, please.

謝謝，道格。接線員，我想我們已經準備好回答一些問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Weston Bloomer with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Weston Bloomer。

My first question is on the margin expansion you're expecting for full year 2023. How should we think about the cadence of that margin expansion as we move through the year? I think you had previously guided to 1Q being lower relative to 2Q and 4Q. Is that still largely the case, excluding Buck? Or can you just help us think about the moving pieces as we go through the year?

我的第一個問題是關於您對 2023 年全年利潤率的預期增長。我們應該如何考慮這一年中利潤率增長的節奏？我認為您之前曾指導 1Q 相對於 2Q 和 4Q 較低。除 Buck 外，情況仍然基本如此嗎？或者你能幫我們想想這一年中發生的事情嗎？

All right. So you're asking me about what -- how do we feel the margin expansion quarter-to-quarter, is that the question?

好的。所以你問我什麼 - 我們如何看待每季度的利潤率擴張，是這個問題嗎？

Yes, more or less, because you highlighted some of the lumpy nature in organic. I'm just kind of curious on how that plays out on the margin as well.

是的，或多或少，因為你突出了有機物中的一些塊狀性質。我只是有點好奇這在邊際上的表現如何。

All right. Let me see if I can dig that out for you here. I should have it right here, and I apologize if I'm not quick on this. I think that -- standby here. In the second quarter, I think that we'd probably have maybe the second and third quarter more flat and then a little bit more upside, maybe towards 30 basis points, in the fourth quarter, I think, is what I'm looking at here.

好的。讓我看看我能不能在這里為你挖掘出來。我應該把它放在這裡，如果我不快，我深表歉意。我認為 - 在這裡待命。在第二季度，我認為我們可能會在第二季度和第三季度持平，然後再上漲一點，可能會在第四季度達到 30 個基點，我認為這就是我所關注的這裡。

Great. And is there any seasonality to Buck's margin as well?

偉大的。 Buck 的利潤率也有季節性嗎？

I'm sorry, let me check that. I just looked and there are 9 -- I'm seeing probably 10 basis points of expansion in the second quarter, 20 in the third and maybe 20 in the fourth.

對不起，讓我檢查一下。我只是看了看，有 9 個——我看到第二季度可能有 10 個基點的擴張，第三季度有 20 個基點，第四季度可能有 20 個基點。

Great. And does that include seasonality to Buck as well? I think you had previously said it was roughly run rate of book value.

偉大的。這是否也包括 Buck 的季節性？我想你之前說過它是賬面價值的粗略運行率。

That's right. That includes Buck.

這是正確的。這包括巴克。

Okay. Great. And can you give a sense of how quickly Buck is growing? I see in the acquired revenue table that's, call it, $77 million per quarter. I'm assuming that's including a few other deals in there, but I'm curious if that's assuming any growth for Buck or how quickly that business is currently growing.

好的。偉大的。你能說說 Buck 的成長速度有多快嗎？我在收購的收入表中看到，稱之為每季度 7700 萬美元。我假設其中包括其他一些交易，但我很好奇這是否假設 Buck 有任何增長或該業務目前的增長速度有多快。

Bill?

賬單？

Yes. This is Bill Ziebell of GBS. Book has been pretty stable across the country last year, across the world last year. They had very strong growth in the U.K. and in their engagement/communications business. They just finished Q1 with their best sales quarter in the last 5 years. We're already beginning to have a lot of revenue synergy discussions, in very organic early stages, built a pretty strong pipeline. We're already going in on deals together. It's a little early to give predictions on what this looks like, but we do expect them to have mid-single-digit growth this year.

是的。我是 GBS 的 Bill Ziebell。圖書去年在全國范圍內相當穩定，去年在全球範圍內。他們在英國及其參與/通信業務方面取得了非常強勁的增長。他們剛剛以過去 5 年來最好的銷售季度結束了第一季度。我們已經開始進行大量的收入協同討論，在非常有機的早期階段，建立了一個非常強大的管道。我們已經在進行交易了。現在就此做出預測還為時過早，但我們確實預計它們今年將實現中等個位數的增長。

Our next question is from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, maybe I'm just confused, Doug, I thought you said brokerage margin can expand 50 -- sorry, 60 to 80 basis points for the year. But then in response to Weston's question, you were talking about 10 to 30 basis points of expansion over the next quarters.

我的第一個問題，也許我只是感到困惑，道格，我以為你說經紀保證金可以擴大 50 - 抱歉，今年可以擴大 60 到 80 個基點。但隨後在回答 Weston 的問題時，你說的是未來幾個季度擴張 10 到 30 個基點。

All right. That question one is without the math that results from Buck because they run naturally lower margins. That was the question that we answered for Weston. The 60 to 80 basis points is how we're looking at Gallagher before Buck. Does that help?

好的。這個問題沒有 Buck 得出的數學結果，因為它們的利潤率自然較低。這就是我們為韋斯頓回答的問題。 60 到 80 個基點是我們在 Buck 之前看待 Gallagher 的方式。這有幫助嗎？

Okay. Got it. Yes, that helps. And then in terms of the organic outlook, still kind of keeping the 7% to 9% range for the year, can you just give us a sense of kind of what you're embedding in there for the economy as well as pricing when you think about -- or are you just expecting, in general, a stable environment over the next few quarters compared to what we saw in Q1?

好的。知道了。是的，這有幫助。然後就有機前景而言，今年仍然保持在 7% 到 9% 的範圍內，你能否讓我們了解一下你在經濟中嵌入的東西以及定價想一想 - 或者您只是期望與我們在第一季度看到的情況相比，未來幾個季度的環境總體上是穩定的？

I think -- Elyse, this is Pat. I think that we're just sort of predicting that it's a stable environment over the next 3 quarters. We're not seeing a lot of rate reduction. We are seeing continued -- and by the way, I'd point out, being a little proud about this, we've been the one saying we're not seeing recessionary pressure in the middle market by our clients around the United States, in particular. Those businesses are continuing to grow, and they are robust, even with the headwinds of higher interest rates and higher insurance costs. And those insurance costs are not backing off. And we can tell you this data day-to-day, line by line, geography by geography, country by country. So I think that our commentary in our prepared remarks about it being a pretty firm market, looking like it's going to continue that way for all the reasons we enumerated, we view it that same way over the next 3 quarters.

我想——愛麗絲，這是帕特。我認為我們只是在預測未來 3 個季度的環境穩定。我們沒有看到很多降息。我們看到繼續 - 順便說一句，我要指出，對此有點自豪，我們一直在說我們沒有看到美國各地的客戶在中間市場面臨衰退壓力，尤其。這些業務仍在繼續增長，而且即使在利率上升和保險成本上升的不利因素下，它們也很強勁。而且這些保險費用並沒有減少。我們可以逐行、逐個地理、逐個國家地逐日告訴您這些數據。因此，我認為我們在準備好的評論中評論說它是一個相當堅挺的市場，由於我們列舉的所有原因，它看起來將繼續這種方式，我們在接下來的 3 個季度中以同樣的方式看待它。

That's helpful. And then you guys know, right, that the laws related to your clean energy investments, right, expired at the end of '21. And you guys have kind of, I think, kept some of the plants open. Is there still the potential that you guys could generate more tax credits there? Or are you kind of not expecting that at this point?

這很有幫助。然後你們知道，對，與清潔能源投資相關的法律，對，在 21 年底到期。我認為，你們讓一些工廠保持開放狀態。你們還有可能在那裡產生更多的稅收抵免嗎？或者你現在有點不期待？

We're preserving all the machines that allow us to generate those tax credits. If there's something that might come out of an energy bill or tax reconciliation bill yet this year, those plants could be put back into service.

我們保留了所有使我們能夠產生這些稅收抵免的機器。如果今年的能源法案或稅收調節法案可能會產生一些影響，那麼這些工廠可能會重新投入使用。

Do you think there's a high probability that could happen?

你認為發生這種情況的可能性大嗎？

Elyse, I don't know if there's a high probability of anything getting done in Washington. So I mean I would hope so, but I wouldn't put a high probability on anything coming out of there. Yes, but if the plants sit there for another year, they sit there for another year.

Elyse，我不知道在華盛頓完成任何事情的可能性是否很高。所以我的意思是我希望如此，但我不會對從那裡出來的任何事情抱有很高的可能性。是的，但如果植物再放在那裡一年，它們就會再放在那裡一年。

Our next question is from Greg Peters with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Greg Peters 和 Raymond James。

So I think -- before I get into the results, I wanted to step back and just talk about talent recruiting and employee producer retention and maybe if you could give us an update on how that's progressing inside Arthur J. Gallagher. And I guess, in a parallel question, there was some recent announcements of promotions in the C-suite. And Pat, I don't think you -- I think you have plenty of gas left in the tank, so maybe you could provide some context about some of those announcements as well.

所以我想——在我得出結果之前，我想退後一步，談談人才招聘和員工製作人的保留，也許你能給我們介紹一下亞瑟·J·加拉格爾內部的進展情況。我想，在一個平行的問題中，最近有一些 C 級高管的晉升公告。帕特，我不認為你——我認為你的油箱裡還有很多油，所以也許你也可以提供一些關於這些公告的背景信息。

Well, let me address a couple of things first, Greg. So first, our recruiting efforts are ongoing. We are always recruiting producers. Excited about the fact that our 500 interns will begin showing up in a few weeks here in the United States. If I look around the globe, it's probably more like 600 interns. As you well know, we recruit heavily from that group and our consistency of retention there is very strong and continues to be strong. So we have a good pipeline and a good -- we do a good job of landing new producers. Nothing to announce in the way of any more robust efforts in that regard than our normal. And so I think I feel really good about that.

好吧，讓我先談談幾件事，格雷格。首先，我們的招聘工作正在進行中。我們一直在招募製作人。我們的 500 名實習生將在幾週後開始出現在美國這裡，這讓我們感到非常興奮。如果我環顧全球，可能有 600 名實習生。如您所知，我們從該群體中大量招聘，我們在那裡的留任率非常高，而且會繼續保持高水平。所以我們有一個很好的渠道和一個很好的——我們在吸引新的生產商方面做得很好。在這方面，沒有什麼比我們的正常情況更強大的努力要宣布的了。所以我認為我對此感覺非常好。

In terms of retention of producers, very, very, very strong retention. And I think that we offer a great place to apply our trade and we pay people well to do that. We're still one of the places that believes in remunerating people for their growth in books. So I feel good about our production recruits, I feel good about our new hires, and I feel very good about the retention level that we have with the people that are here.

在生產者的保留方面，非常、非常、非常強的保留。而且我認為我們提供了一個很好的地方來應用我們的貿易，我們付錢給人們這樣做。我們仍然是相信為人們在書籍中的成長提供報酬的地方之一。所以我對我們的生產新員工感覺很好，我對我們的新員工感覺很好，我對我們與這裡的人的保留水平感覺很好。

As it relates to the article, which was not an announcement. I would just simply say that we don't make a lot of comments on news stories, Greg, and I think you know that. I'm the CEO, and I feel great. Thank you very much.

因為它涉及到文章，這不是一個公告。我只想簡單地說，我們不會對新聞報導發表太多評論，格雷格，我想你知道這一點。我是首席執行官，我感覺很好。非常感謝。

I expected that kind of comment from you, but thank you for validating it. I guess my follow-on question will deal with M&A. And I know you comment on this almost every quarter, but the interest rate environment has posed a changing landscape for M&A. We look at your multiples sits in Doug's CFO commentary tables, and it doesn't look like the multiples are changing much. Can you talk about how you view M&A at the current prices that are being in the marketplace? Do you think -- you talked about the 40 term sheets that are outstanding. It seems like you have 40 term sheets every quarter. But can you talk about how the interest rate environment might change your perspective on what you're willing to pay?

我期待你的那種評論，但感謝你驗證它。我想我的後續問題將涉及併購。我知道你幾乎每個季度都會對此發表評論，但利率環境已經改變了併購的格局。我們在 Doug 的 CFO 評論表中查看了您的倍數，看起來倍數變化不大。你能談談你如何看待以當前市場價格進行的併購嗎？你認為 - 你談到了 40 個優秀的條款清單。看起來你每個季度都有 40 張條款清單。但您能談談利率環境如何改變您對支付意願的看法嗎？

Yes, I will. First of all, let me put some color on that. If I read the Business Insurance article correctly about a week ago, I think M&A in the first quarter is down about 29%. That's after year after year after year of more PE entries, more deals being done. So I think we're seeing a slowdown in the number of transactions, which I do think reflects a slowdown in the number of new entrants. There are some people who have been very active in the past that are less active now.

是的，我會。首先，讓我給它塗點顏色。如果我一周前正確閱讀商業保險文章，我認為第一季度的併購下降了約 29%。這是在年復一年的更多 PE 條目之後，更多的交易被完成。所以我認為我們看到交易數量放緩，我認為這反映了新進入者數量的放緩。有些人過去非常活躍，現在卻不那麼活躍了。

At present, we're not seeing a big decrease in those multiples. If you had 20 people bidding on a property 18 months ago, you still have 11 today. And so I do believe that, like anything, supply and demand, if that demand continues to decrease, and interest rates are, in some way, impinging that capital, I think that you will see multiples come down, but they're not doing that right now.

目前，我們沒有看到這些倍數有大幅下降。如果 18 個月前有 20 人競標一處房產，那麼今天仍有 11 人。所以我確實相信，就像供求關係一樣，如果需求繼續下降，利率在某種程度上影響資本，我認為你會看到倍數下降，但他們並沒有這樣做那現在。

Our next question is from Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mike Zaremski。

First question, in the prepared remarks, you talked about property rates accelerating. Any stats or any way we can dimension what percentage of the -- of your revenues on the brokerage side touch that element of acceleration? It doesn't seem like from your organic guide that you're taking in that acceleration continuing or maybe I'm incorrect.

第一個問題，在準備好的發言中，您談到了房地產利率加速上漲。任何統計數據或任何方式我們都可以確定您在經紀方面的收入中有多少百分比涉及加速因素？從你的自然指南看來，你似乎沒有接受那種持續的加速，或者我可能是不正確的。

Well, listen, I can give you some percentages on our book. Our property book, if you include package in there also, is going to be somewhere around -- I'm just doing the mental math here real quick, is around 27%, something like that, of our first quarter total revenues in the P&C units. One of the things that our guys do and our gals do out there, is they're pretty good at mitigating some of that rate increase. So when you look at it, property rates are going up 17%. You might see commissions going up 10% or 11%, 12%, something like that, because you increase deductibles, you bring down limits, you come up with some more creative programs in that. So that is a line of business where the direct correlation between the premium increase and then the commissions that we get, there's a delta there.

好吧，聽著，我可以給你一些關於我們書的百分比。我們的財產賬簿，如果你也把包裹也包括在內，將會在某個地方——我只是在這裡快速地做心算，大約占我們第一季度 P&C 總收入的 27%，大約是這樣單位。我們的男人和我們的女孩在那裡做的一件事是，他們非常擅長緩解這種利率上漲。所以當你看它時，房地產價格上漲了 17%。你可能會看到佣金上漲 10% 或 11%、12%，諸如此類，因為你增加了免賠額，降低了限額，你想出了一些更有創意的計劃。所以這是一個業務線，其中保費增加與我們獲得的佣金之間存在直接相關性，那裡有一個三角洲。

I think that's a -- I'm piling in here. This is Pat. That's a very, very good point. Every time in a firm market, we get that question. Rates are up on XYZ, 12%. You're showing 6%. Why is that? Because our job is to not pass on the 12%, and we're good at that.

我認為那是——我在這裡打樁。這是帕特。這是一個非常非常好的觀點。每次在堅挺的市場中，我們都會遇到這個問題。 XYZ 的利率上升了 12%。你顯示的是 6%。這是為什麼？因為我們的工作是不遺漏那 12%，而我們擅長於此。

Got it. Okay. Doug, that excludes reinsurance?

知道了。好的。道格，這不包括再保險？

Yes, that's right. Most of our reinsurance are auto renewals, so you've already seen that.

恩，那就對了。我們的大部分再保險都是自動續保，所以您已經看到了。

Got it. Okay. A follow-up, investment income, maybe I might have missed this because I jumped on a minute late. But was there any help with -- if this is the right investment income run rate? I know that there might have been book sales in the number two. It looks like it was better than expected. I know there was some new -- there's some noise on the fiduciary balances too now, so should you -- should we be thinking we need some help there?

知道了。好的。後續，投資收益，也許我可能錯過了這個，因為我晚了一分鐘。但是，如果這是正確的投資收益運行率，有什麼幫助嗎？我知道排名第二的可能是圖書銷量。看起來比預期的要好。我知道有一些新的 - 現在信託餘額也有一些噪音，你也應該 - 我們應該認為我們在那裡需要一些幫助嗎？

Right. So book sales would have been tiny. I think the total amount of book sales this quarter was about $200,000, something like that. So that wouldn't have influenced it in our numbers at all. Our investment income on the face of the financial statements also includes our premium funding businesses. So you will -- so the amount of investment income that translates right into that number. Just take 90% of what you see as investment income, and on the face, 90% of that is real additional incremental investment income.

正確的。所以圖書銷量本來就很小。我認為本季度的圖書總銷售額約為 200,000 美元，大概如此。所以這根本不會影響我們的數字。我們在財務報表表面的投資收入還包括我們的保費融資業務。所以你會 - 所以轉化為該數字的投資收入金額。就拿你看到的90%作為投資收益，表面上90%是真正的額外增量投資收益。

When you look at what it means for the rest of the year, as you know, if you follow the interest rates, there were a big tick-up starting about last month last year. And so the second half of the year, the increase in investment income is not as dramatic as it is here in the first quarter. So if I were to look at full year impact of investment income on our organic lift, that would be about maybe 60 basis points for full year -- 60 basis points of margin expansion from investment income for the full year. So you can see here, this quarter was up, fueled about 90 basis points. And for the full year, it'd be about 60 to 70 basis points, something like that.

當你看看它對今年剩餘時間的意義時，如你所知，如果你關注利率，那麼從去年的上個月開始就會出現大幅上漲。所以下半年，投資收益的增長並不像第一季度那麼劇烈。因此，如果我要查看投資收入對我們有機提升的全年影響，全年可能約為 60 個基點 - 全年投資收入的利潤率增長 60 個基點。所以你可以在這裡看到，這個季度上漲了大約 90 個基點。對於全年，它大約是 60 到 70 個基點，類似的東西。

Okay. Great. And maybe just one last quick one, given how much improvement Gallagher has shown in its margins over the last few years, is there a way to dimension what percentage of the deals you guys look at to have a better margin profile than Gallagher? Or should we expect there to be up maybe similar, like a Buck headwind sometimes going forward as you guys continue to do deals?

好的。偉大的。也許只是最後一個快速的，考慮到 Gallagher 在過去幾年的利潤率方面表現出了多大的改善，有沒有辦法確定你們所看到的交易中有多少百分比的利潤率比 Gallagher 更好？或者我們是否應該期望可能會出現類似的情況，就像你們繼續做交易時有時會出現降壓逆風？

I think if you look at our pipeline and you project it, we would think that if I were standing in January of next year, looking back, what's going to be the impact of roll-in M&A excluding Bucks, it might use about 10 to 20 basis points of margin expansion. So it has a significantly smaller impact on the full year because we're so seasonally large in the first quarter.

我認為，如果你看看我們的管道並進行預測，我們會認為，如果我站在明年 1 月，回顧過去，不包括 Bucks 的滾動併購將產生什麼影響，它可能需要大約 10 到利潤率擴大 20 個基點。所以它對全年的影響要小得多，因為我們在第一季度的季節性很大。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from David Motemaden with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

I just had a question just on the margin. So I understand, Doug, so we got the 90 basis point tailwind from fiduciary income here in the first quarter. Maybe that ticks down for the full year like 60 basis points. It sounds like Buck is about a 50 point headwind to offset that. And then I guess we have organic, that should contribute 60 to 80 basis points. I guess could you talk about some of the other headwinds that are going to offset some of the margin expansion going forward? Because I'm struggling to get to the 20 to 30 this year.

我剛剛有一個問題。所以我明白，道格，所以我們在第一季度從這裡的信託收入中獲得了 90 個基點的順風。也許全年會下降 60 個基點。聽起來 Buck 大約有 50 點逆風來抵消這一點。然後我想我們有有機的，應該貢獻 60 到 80 個基點。我想你能談談其他一些將抵消未來利潤率擴張的逆風嗎？因為我今年很難達到 20 到 30。

All right. So maybe let me back up and just say -- and think about it this way. We built a bridge this quarter from last year first quarter, right? So if we were standing in January of '24, looking at a year that we're kind of seeing in that organic, in the 7% to 9% range, here are some of the components we've talked about already, and I'll toss in a couple more. So we already said that maybe investment income would give us 60, 70, 80 basis points of margin expansion for full year, but not to 90. We got to think about the normalization of the Omicron T&E expenses and then maybe some inflation on other T&E throughout the year, but we were back to doing full business in the second half of last year. That may cost us margin expansion, let's say, 30 to 40 basis points.

好的。所以也許讓我退後一步，只是說 - 並以這種方式考慮。我們從去年第一季度開始在本季度建造了一座橋樑，對嗎？因此，如果我們站在 24 年 1 月，看看我們在有機中看到的一年，在 7% 到 9% 的範圍內，這裡有一些我們已經討論過的組成部分，我會再扔幾個。所以我們已經說過，也許投資收入會給我們全年帶來 60、70、80 個基點的利潤率擴張，但不會達到 90 個基點。我們必須考慮 Omicron T&E 費用的正常化，然後可能會在其他 T&E 上出現一些通貨膨脹全年，但我們在去年下半年恢復了全面業務。這可能會使我們的利潤率增加 30 到 40 個基點。

I told you about the roll-in impact of regular tuck-in acquisitions, excluding Buck, that would maybe use 10 to 20 basis points of margin expansion. That gives you organic maybe in that 70 to 100 basis points, just pure organic, without those things, 70 to 100 basis points of margin expansion. And then we are making some additional -- we provided some additional raises that we talked about last quarter. We are making some additional IT investments. All those maybe $5 million to $8 million a quarter that would use maybe 20 to 50 basis points of margin expansion. Again, these are ranges.

我告訴過你定期收購的影響，不包括巴克，這可能會增加 10 到 20 個基點的利潤率。這給你有機可能在 70 到 100 個基點，只是純有機，沒有那些東西，70 到 100 個基點的利潤率擴張。然後我們正在做一些額外的——我們提供了一些我們上個季度談到的額外加薪。我們正在進行一些額外的 IT 投資。所有這些可能每季度 500 萬到 800 萬美元，可能會使用 20 到 50 個基點的利潤率擴張。同樣，這些是范圍。

Follow that bridge for the full year, and that gets you back to the 60 to 80 basis points of FX adjusted margin expansion for the year. So then you'd layer in Buck, and that would get you down to that margin expansion that you mentioned there. So I hope that bridge, and I don't have a crystal ball, it's not January of next year, but at those type of ranges, you get some from investment income, you get a lot from organic. Some goes back because of T&E. And the roll-in impact has a roll-in effect, and we're making some investments.

全年遵循該橋樑，您將回到當年外匯調整後利潤率擴張 60 至 80 個基點。那麼你就會在 Buck 中分層，這會讓你下降到你在那裡提到的利潤率擴張。所以我希望那座橋，我沒有水晶球，不是明年一月，但在那種範圍內，你從投資收入中得到一些，你從有機中得到很多。有些人因為 T&E 而回去。滾動影響有滾動效應，我們正在進行一些投資。

So if we ended up the year and ignore Buck being up 60 to 80 basis points, knowing me in January next year, I'd probably point out that we would have expanded margins 600 basis points in 5 years. And knowing my personality, I probably would say that I still would feel confident that we would have more and more productivity opportunities as we look forward. So a lot can change in 9 months, but wouldn't that be a great year for us to post? So those are kind of my thoughts on that. I hope that helps all the listeners on this to understand that -- where the pieces are coming from. And hopefully, that will help you build your models.

因此，如果我們在今年結束時忽略 Buck 上漲 60 到 80 個基點，明年 1 月認識我，我可能會指出我們將在 5 年內將利潤率擴大 600 個基點。了解我的個性，我可能會說，我仍然相信，隨著我們的期待，我們會有越來越多的生產力機會。 9 個月內可以發生很多變化，但這對我們來說不是很棒的一年嗎？所以這些就是我的想法。我希望這可以幫助所有聽眾了解這些片段的來源。希望這能幫助您構建模型。

Yes, that helps a lot. I appreciate that, Doug. Maybe just a follow-up, Doug, I think you said you sounded -- or you did say you were bullish on hitting that full year organic in the 7% to 9% range after being a little bit above that this quarter. it sounds like renewal premiums are chugging along, the economy is also chugging along. Is it really just the tougher comps that is holding you back from increasing that outlook? Or is there anything else that we should think about that's on your guys' mind as you were thinking about just the organic growth outlook over the rest of the year?

是的，這很有幫助。我很感激，道格。也許只是後續行動，道格，我想你說你聽起來 - 或者你確實說你看好在本季度略高於 7% 到 9% 的範圍內實現全年有機增長。聽起來續約保費在突飛猛進，經濟也在突飛猛進。是否真的只是更艱難的競爭阻礙了你提高這種前景？或者當你們只考慮今年剩餘時間的有機增長前景時，我們還應該考慮你們的想法嗎？

I think the accounting and the deferred revenue from 606 in the fourth quarter, plus maybe the life cases, I mean we have -- so as more life cases come in pretty lumpy, those probably cost us 50 basis points, the combination of the 2, and full year organic something like that. But one thing I will say is that when we look at our dailies, these are the overnights where we get a scrape of all the renewals that are going in. I got to tell you, April looks a lot more -- looks stronger in terms of premium increases than we were seeing before even on a mix-adjusted basis. There is a tone that we're seeing in our data, not from anecdotal polling, that there is some further strengthening in all lines and all geographies, maybe other than 1 or 2 smaller ones. So who knows? Maybe we'll be closer to the 9%, but we're still comfortable in that 7% to 9% range.

我認為第四季度 606 的會計和遞延收入，也許還有生活案例，我的意思是我們有——所以隨著更多的生活案例變得非常不穩定，這些可能使我們損失了 50 個基點，這兩個的組合，以及全年有機之類的東西。但我要說的一件事是，當我們查看我們的日報時，這些是我們在一夜之間獲得所有續訂的機會。我必須告訴你，四月看起來更多 - 看起來更強大即使在混合調整的基礎上，保費增長也比我們之前看到的要多。我們在數據中看到了一種基調，而不是來自軼事民意調查，即所有線路和所有地區都有進一步加強，可能除了 1 或 2 個較小的。那麼誰知道呢？也許我們會更接近 9%，但我們仍然對 7% 到 9% 的範圍感到滿意。

Okay. Great. I appreciate that. And then maybe if I could just sneak one more in for Scott, just on the Gallagher Bassett noncomp liability claims. Just it sounded like core underlying claims were up low single digits during the quarter. That was both in workers' comp and along the liability lines. I'm wondering on liability lines, is that up low single digits a significant change to how that core underlying claims level was running in the previous quarters?

好的。偉大的。我很感激。然後也許如果我能再偷偷給斯科特一個，就 Gallagher Bassett 的違規責任索賠。只是聽起來核心基礎索賠在本季度呈低個位數增長。這既包括工人補償金，也包括責任線。我想知道關於責任線，較低的個位數是否對前幾個季度核心基礎索賠水平的運行方式產生了重大變化？

I mean there's a couple of things going on. One is we happen to be -- if you look at kind of the new business we've been selling, it's been connected to more liability activity. So it's not necessarily that individual accounts are seeing more, but the new business tends to be tilting a little bit in that direction.

我的意思是有幾件事正在發生。一個是我們恰好是——如果你看一下我們一直在出售的新業務，它與更多的責任活動有關。因此，不一定是個人賬戶看到的更多，但新業務往往會朝這個方向傾斜一點。

Our next question is from Mark Hughes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Hughes 和 Truist。

Pat, you've been pretty enthusiastic about the -- what you're seeing around exposures. In the construction space, if banks are really tightening up, would you have started to see that? Would there be some early project work that would flow through your system? Do you have any kind of view on what you think will help -- or what will happen there given the banking crisis?

帕特，你對你在曝光周圍看到的東西非常熱情。在建築領域，如果銀行真的收緊，你會開始看到嗎？是否會有一些早期項目工作會流經您的系統？你對你認為會有所幫助的事情有什麼看法——或者在銀行業危機的情況下會發生什麼？

So Mark, I'm not sure I understand the question. If I look at my data, is the question around what we're seeing in the construction risks that we insure?

所以馬克，我不確定我是否理解這個問題。如果我查看我的數據，問題是圍繞我們在我們承保的建築風險中看到的內容嗎？

Correct. Any early signs of pressure because of the bank situation?

正確的。由於銀行情況，有任何壓力的早期跡象嗎？

No. In fact, if anything, right now, construction continues to be pretty darn robust. First off, you've got -- you do have a lot of infrastructure stuff that now is flowing through, and our infrastructure contractors are doing very well. And when you get down to the more -- to the smaller contractors, their backlog is strong.

不。事實上，如果說有什麼不同的話，現在的建設仍然非常穩健。首先，你有 - 你確實有很多基礎設施的東西現在正在流動，我們的基礎設施承包商做得很好。當你深入到更多——更小的承包商時，他們的積壓工作量很大。

Any observation about the carriers' willingness to pay claims with perhaps inflation in the system? Are they tightening up there? And is that -- are you seeing that in your relationships with the carriers?

是否觀察到承運人願意在系統可能通貨膨脹的情況下支付索賠？他們在那裡收緊了嗎？那是——你在與承運人的關係中看到了嗎？

No, I will say this, I'm proud of the industry, Mark. One of the things that I think stays consistent is that our carriers, and I say this on a broad-based basis, are paying the legitimate claims that they have filed with them. And I think they're paying them in a timely fashion, and I think they're paying them fairly. Now you can get to certain jurisdictions, I don't mind mentioning it, Florida with assignment of benefits and litigation on half the claims. And there's a battle going on there. But by and large, when you put a legitimate claim into the system, the insurance industry is a very efficient model of paying that claim. We are not sitting there with a lot of complaints from our claimants.

不，我會這樣說，我為這個行業感到驕傲，馬克。我認為保持一致的一件事是，我們的承運人，我是在廣泛的基礎上說的，正在支付他們向他們提出的合法索賠。而且我認為他們會及時付款，而且我認為他們會公平地付款。現在你可以進入某些司法管轄區，我不介意提及它，佛羅里達州有一半的索賠利益分配和訴訟。那裡正在進行一場戰鬥。但總的來說，當你向系統提出合法索賠時，保險業是支付該索賠的一種非常有效的模式。我們不會坐在那裡接受索賠人的大量投訴。

Our next question is from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

I just want to ask one follow-up to Greg's question earlier. You gave a hypothetical, Pat, about an idea that let's say there were 18 bidders on the property, maybe now there's only 11. I know that it was only hypothetical, but 11 still seems a lot to me. I'm wondering, in the market today, are there still a lot of bidders who are flush with cash? Are they raising debt in this environment to make the acquisitions? What's their funding that keeps them around?

我只想問一個 Greg 之前問題的後續問題。帕特，你給出了一個假設，假設有 18 個競標者競標該物業，也許現在只有 11 個。我知道這只是假設，但 11 個對我來說仍然很多。我想知道，在今天的市場上，還有很多現金充裕的競標者嗎？他們是否在這種環境下舉債進行收購？他們的資金來源是什麼？

Well, a, I don't understand it, and I'm not smart enough, too. So let's start with that. And b, yes, they're raising funds like crazy. One of our competitors that I won't name actually eliminated their integration team and their acquisition team, announced publicly that they were no longer going to be actively pursuing acquisitions. They've got additional funding and they're back in the game. Go figure out who would sell to that, not me. So then you go to other players that have been more consistent long term, and yes, they received significant funding in the last 60 days. So they are flush. That capital has got to work. They didn't get it to put in interest, so there's competition out there.

嗯，a，我不明白，我也不夠聰明。讓我們從那開始吧。 b，是的，他們正在瘋狂地籌集資金。我們的一個競爭對手（我不願透露姓名）實際上取消了他們的整合團隊和他們的收購團隊，公開宣布他們將不再積極尋求收購。他們獲得了額外的資金，他們又回到了遊戲中。去弄清楚誰會賣給那個，而不是我。因此，然後你去找其他長期更穩定的參與者，是的，他們在過去 60 天內獲得了大量資金。所以他們是齊平的。該資本必鬚髮揮作用。他們沒有得到它的利息，所以那裡有競爭。

And in terms of the price they're paying, I mean, I've always felt that there's not really a big pageant going on. People want to come and be partners with Gallagher. And it's a choice acquirer compared to some others. Is there evidence that certain sellers are willing to not consider certain bidders who might be less of an attractive acquirer?

就他們付出的代價而言，我的意思是，我一直覺得併沒有真正舉行盛大的選美比賽。人們希望成為 Gallagher 的合作夥伴。與其他公司相比，它是一個不錯的收購方。是否有證據表明某些賣家願意不考慮某些可能不太有吸引力的收購方的投標人？

Well, I think so. I mean I think that's a big part of our sales, that we are always talking about the fact that the differentiator here is twofold. One, we believe we have a great franchise that offers them the opportunity to expand their business. And if they love the business, they tend to stay in it. This is the best platform in our mind to trade from. So that starts it. And then, of course, you've got the cultural aspect. And we're competitive. We're not trying to sell the fact that, that should give them a deep discount. But there are people that sell for various reasons, and we don't win them all.

好吧，我想是的。我的意思是我認為這是我們銷售的很大一部分，我們一直在談論這裡的差異化因素是雙重的。第一，我們相信我們擁有出色的特許經營權，可以為他們提供擴展業務的機會。如果他們熱愛這個行業，他們往往會留在這個行業。這是我們心目中最好的交易平台。這樣就開始了。然後，當然，你有文化方面的內容。而且我們很有競爭力。我們並不是要推銷這樣一個事實，那就是應該給他們很大的折扣。但是有些人出於各種原因出售，我們並沒有贏得所有人。

Our next question is from Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

Two sort of big picture questions, if I can. First, Pat, you talked about within wholesale and specialty, open brokerage is growing a lot faster than MGA and binding business. I was hoping you could talk us through why there's that gap in growth rate.

如果可以的話，兩個大問題。首先，帕特，你談到批發和專業領域，開放經紀業務的增長速度比 MGA 和綁定業務快得多。我希望你能告訴我們為什麼增長率存在差距。

Sure. I'll pass that to Joel. Go ahead, Joel.

當然。我會將其傳遞給喬爾。去吧，喬爾。

Sure. So on the wholesale side, obviously, you work with larger accounts. And larger accounts that end up at the wholesale space typically are larger accounts with larger exposures and a little tougher to play. So that would be really the first one. And then really, the second thing is the inflow of tougher accounts today that are coming out of the admitted market and coming into the surplus lines market, or E&S, depending on what your terminology is, is more robust. They're just -- they're coming in very quickly because of the specialty difficulty in the property market. So you would see a higher organic in that line versus our MGA, binding business, which is more consistent, growing nicely, but it's more consistent in the nature of smaller accounts. So it doesn't move the needle as much.

當然。所以在批發方面，很明顯，你需要處理更大的客戶。最終出現在批發領域的大賬戶通常是敞口更大、操作難度更大的大賬戶。所以這真的是第一個。然後，實際上，第二件事是今天從准入市場流入盈餘線市場或 E&S 的更強硬賬戶的流入，這取決於你的術語是什麼，更加強勁。他們只是 - 由於房地產市場的專業困難，他們很快就會進來。因此，與我們的 MGA 綁定業務相比，你會看到該領域的有機業務更高，後者更穩定，增長良好，但在小賬戶的性質上更一致。所以它不會移動針頭。

Look at it this way. Another way to put it, Meyer, one is troubled business, frankly. When we're doing open market brokerage, brokers are coming to us because they need our help on tough-to-place accounts that are going up in price. Our MGAs and programs are consistently writing smaller accounts that are not distressed but are looking for specialty coverage or specialty expertise.

這樣看。邁耶，換一種說法，坦率地說，這是一個陷入困境的企業。當我們進行公開市場經紀業務時，經紀人會來找我們，因為他們需要我們的幫助來處理價格上漲的難以安置的賬戶。我們的 MGA 和計劃一直在編寫不痛苦但正在尋找專業覆蓋或專業知識的較小帳戶。

Okay. No, that's very helpful. That's the one I needed. The second question, I'm just wondering, how should we think about reinsurance growth over the next year or so? Is there sort of a special, maybe temporary, boost because it's now under sort of Gallagher's purview and you can explain the benefits of that to the insurance company that you deal with worldwide, and then once that happens, you're on a stable basis? Or is that a more enduring source of upside?

好的。不，這非常有幫助。那就是我需要的。第二個問題，我只是想知道，我們應該如何考慮未來一年左右的再保險增長？是否有某種特殊的，也許是暫時的提升，因為它現在在加拉格爾的權限範圍內，你可以向你在全球範圍內打交道的保險公司解釋這樣做的好處，然後一旦發生這種情況，你就會處於穩定的基礎上？或者這是一個更持久的上行來源？

No, I think that's an enduring thing. When this team was part of our competitor, Willis, they had a very good block of business underneath them, a very good firm they're part of. And I would say, in fact, similar economics. So we're not changing that. But I think we do offer a different environment. We offer a different way of trading. We're bringing our retailers together with the reinsurance people at a much higher level, or I shouldn't say our level, at a much greater frequency with much greater interaction than they were used to, which I do believe will fuel their growth. And I think it will accelerate beyond what they would have achieved, but that's what it could or should and we'll never know.

不，我認為這是一件持久的事情。當這個團隊是我們的競爭對手 Willis 的一部分時，他們下面有一個非常好的業務塊，一個非常好的公司，他們是其中的一部分。我會說，事實上，類似的經濟學。所以我們不會改變它。但我認為我們確實提供了一個不同的環境。我們提供不同的交易方式。我們正在將我們的零售商與再保險人員聚集在一個更高的水平上，或者我不應該說我們的水平，以比他們過去習慣的頻率更高的頻率和更多的互動，我相信這將推動他們的增長。而且我認為它會加速超越他們本來可以達到的，但這是它可以或應該達到的，我們永遠不會知道。

Our next question is from Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Rob Cox。

I just had one question on pricing. I think you all had commented previously that Australia, New Zealand are potentially seeing a reacceleration in rate and the U.K. is also seeming quite strong. So I'm just curious if you're seeing or expect to see more of a divergence in the pricing trajectory between the U.S. and international business?

我只有一個關於定價的問題。我想你們之前都曾評論過，澳大利亞、新西蘭的利率可能會再次加速，而英國似乎也相當強勁。所以我很好奇你是否看到或期望看到美國和國際企業之間的定價軌跡出現更多差異？

I think they're pretty close to the same. Yes, we're seeing some of those. But we're seeing -- take D&O out of it right now, starting to see some uptick in workers' comp now. So I mean I don't see a lot of difference between what's going on in the U.S. and what's going on in Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the U.K. So it's pretty close.

我認為它們非常接近相同。是的，我們看到了其中一些。但我們看到——現在把 D&O 拿出來，現在開始看到工人薪酬有所上升。所以我的意思是，我認為美國正在發生的事情與加拿大、新西蘭、澳大利亞和英國正在發生的事情之間沒有太大區別，所以非常接近。

Our next question is from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

Just a follow-up on the margin side, and thanks for the color on the moving pieces. But within that 20 to 30 basis points, are you assuming that the fiduciary investment income is in line with the Q1 level over the remaining 3 quarters?

只是邊緣方面的後續行動，感謝移動件上的顏色。但是在這 20 到 30 個基點內，您是否假設信託投資收益在剩餘的 3 個季度中與 Q1 水平一致？

Yes, that's pretty close. Yes, that's right.

是的，這非常接近。恩，那就對了。

And then I know I had asked earlier kind of just a question just in terms of -- just it seems like you're -- assuming a stable economy, right, we see some forecast out there for decelerating GDP or perhaps GDP to go negative. What are you guys assuming for GDP over the balance of the year?

然後我知道我之前問過一個問題，只是關於 - 看起來你 - 假設經濟穩定，對，我們看到一些關於 GDP 減速或 GDP 可能為負的預測.你們對今年餘下時間的 GDP 假設是多少？

Well, here's -- translating it directly into GDP is a different exercise. But one thing -- you got to separate real versus nominal, first and foremost. Secondly, you got to look at what's the growth in the insured values and insure -- what's being insured there. Remember, we're not seeing that in our data right now. I'm looking down through our industry list right now. And we talked about construction early or heavy construction, other than building construction contractors, up 12.4%; construction and special trade, 8%; building construction, up 8%.

好吧，這是——將其直接轉化為 GDP 是另一回事。但有一件事——你必須首先將實際與名義分開。其次，你必須看看保險價值和保險的增長是什麼——那裡投保了什麼。請記住，我們現在沒有在我們的數據中看到這一點。我正在查看我們的行業列表。我們談到了早期建築或重型建築，建築施工承包商除外，增長了 12.4%；建築和特殊貿易，8%；建築施工，增長8%。

So if you look through our industry list here, we're not seeing it. We're not seeing it in our dailies overnight. The cancellations are lower than before, negative endorsements are lower than before. Audits are audits. They have a lag factor in there, so I wouldn't look at those too terribly carefully. But we're just not seeing this in our customers' business at this point. And believe me, our customers, if they believe they're seeing a downturn, one of the things they want to do is modify their insurance program because that's cash flow to them. So we will know in 2 years how accurate our dailies are, but right now, they proved pretty right over the last 2 years.

因此，如果您在這裡查看我們的行業列表，我們不會看到它。我們不會在一夜之間在日報中看到它。取消次數比以前少，差評比以前少。審計就是審計。他們在那裡有一個滯後因素，所以我不會太仔細地看那些。但目前我們還沒有在客戶的業務中看到這一點。相信我，我們的客戶，如果他們認為他們正在看到經濟衰退，他們想做的一件事就是修改他們的保險計劃，因為那是他們的現金流。所以我們將在 2 年內知道我們的樣片有多準確，但現在，它們在過去 2 年中被證明是非常正確的。

And so even, I guess, if we still -- like if you were thinking about what's going to have the greater impact, do we think about it being the economy and GDP or P&C pricing when we think about the next few quarters?

因此，我想，如果我們仍然 - 就像你在考慮什麼會產生更大的影響一樣，當我們考慮未來幾個季度時，我們是否會考慮經濟和 GDP 或 P&C 定價？

Both.

兩個都。

But I think the pricing will far offset any modest contraction and exposure in it. I don't know what's going to contract in the next 6 months, what volumes are going to contract. I just -- we're just not seeing it, Elyse.

但我認為定價將遠遠抵消其中的任何適度收縮和敞口。我不知道未來 6 個月會收縮什麼，會收縮多少量。我只是 - 我們只是沒有看到它，Elyse。

and remember, Elyse, we are the beneficiary of inflation. There are very few industries out there that really get a benefit from inflation, and we do. So as building values go up and for -- and right now, for the first time in a decade, carriers are very, very interested in what you're -- making sure you're insuring to value. This inflation is hitting building costs very hard.

記住，愛麗絲，我們是通貨膨脹的受益者。很少有行業能真正從通貨膨脹中獲益，而我們確實如此。因此，隨著建築價值的上升——現在，十年來第一次，承運人對你的身份非常、非常感興趣——確保你確保價值。這種通貨膨脹嚴重打擊了建築成本。

Our next question is from David Motemaden with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

So I've noticed the last few quarters, just in the adjusted compensation ratio commentary in brokerage, just the impacts from savings related to back-office head count controls. Could you maybe just touch on that? I'm assuming some of this has to do with leveraging centers of excellence, but I don't think you had mentioned that as a tailwind when we think about the margin roll-forward. So I guess maybe just help me think through that, maybe not only for this year but like broader picture, how big of an opportunity that is, leveraging the centers of excellence.

所以我注意到過去幾個季度，就在經紀業調整後的薪酬比率評論中，只有與後台人員人數控制相關的儲蓄的影響。你能不能談談這個？我假設其中一些與利用卓越中心有關，但我認為當我們考慮利潤率前滾時，你沒有提到這是順風。所以我想也許只是幫助我思考一下，也許不僅是今年，而且更廣泛地說，利用卓越中心的機會有多大。

Well, maybe we back up and take a look. If you remember some of our discussion about the sensitivity of our business to inflation, we said about 40% of it is neutral to it because it just moves more in tandem with premium, with our commission rates because we pay people on an incentive compensation basis there. Then we've got about 40% of our whole cost structure that is moderately impacted by inflation. And then we have 20% of it that might run a little bit more close to what headline inflation is, knocking off some of the tops of certain things that -- like maybe transportation, gas, et cetera, on that.

好吧，也許我們回過頭來看看。如果您還記得我們關於我們的業務對通貨膨脹的敏感性的一些討論，我們說大約 40% 的通貨膨脹對通貨膨脹是中性的，因為它只是與保費和我們的佣金率同步移動，因為我們是在激勵補償的基礎上支付的那裡。然後我們有大約 40% 的成本結構受到通貨膨脹的適度影響。然後我們有 20% 的通脹率可能會更接近總體通脹率，從而打破某些事情的一些頂部——比如交通、天然氣等。

So when you add all that up, when you look at what could be facing an -- somebody like us that's pushing $6 billion worth of cost, if something -- if you say that -- let's say, let's call it, 30% of your -- 25% of your cost structure is subject to 75% of the headline inflation number, just think about that. Let's say there's $4 billion, I'm just doing this off the top of my head, that might have a 6% or 7% inflation factor in it, right? That's a big number, right? And I'm saying that the only thing that's really affecting us is $5 million to $8 million a quarter on it.

所以當你把所有這些加起來，當你看看可能面臨的問題時——像我們這樣的人正在推動價值 60 億美元的成本，如果有的話——如果你這麼說——假設，我們稱之為，30%你的 - 你的成本結構的 25% 受標題通貨膨脹數字的 75% 的影響，想想看。假設有 40 億美元，我只是憑空想出來的，其中可能有 6% 或 7% 的通貨膨脹因素，對吧？這是一個很大的數字，對吧？我是說唯一真正影響我們的是每季度 500 萬到 800 萬美元。

So what that's saying is, as we get more productive, not just from our offshore centers of excellence, because of technology and other process improvements that are both domestic and offshore centers of excellence, that is absolutely controlling against inflation out there. So there is substantial uplift that's happening every day because of our productivity work, our quality work and our offshore centers of excellence. I just kind of did that off the top of my head, but you get the point. You'd see a heck of a lot more cost or expense dropping into the bottom line if we didn't have our offshore centers of excellence.

所以這就是說，隨著我們提高生產力，不僅僅是來自我們的離岸卓越中心，因為國內和離岸卓越中心的技術和其他流程改進，這絕對可以控制那裡的通貨膨脹。因此，由於我們的生產力工作、我們的質量工作和我們的離岸卓越中心，每天都在發生實質性的提升。我只是不經意地做了這件事，但你明白了。如果我們沒有卓越的離岸中心，您會看到更多的成本或費用落入底線。

Got it. No, that makes sense.

知道了。不，這是有道理的。

We're pleased with all of the quality that comes out of that operation, too.

我們也對該操作產生的所有質量感到滿意。

Well, thank you very much, everyone. Appreciate that, and thank you for joining us today. As you can tell, we're extremely pleased with our start to the year. We posted a great quarter. I'd like to thank all our colleagues for their outstanding efforts this quarter. We are a people business, and I believe we have the best people at Gallagher. We look forward to speaking with you again at our IR Day in June. Have a nice evening, and thanks for being with us.

嗯，非常感謝大家。對此表示讚賞，並感謝您今天加入我們。如您所知，我們對今年的開局非常滿意。我們發布了一個很棒的季度。我要感謝我們所有的同事在本季度所做的出色努力。我們是一家以人為本的企業，我相信我們在 Gallagher 擁有最優秀的人才。我們期待在 6 月的 IR 日再次與您交談。祝您度過一個愉快的夜晚，感謝您與我們在一起。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。