Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

下午好，歡迎參加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，此時您可以斷開連接。

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

本次電話會議中發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義內的前瞻性陳述。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的資訊或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。

Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties. In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中有關前瞻性陳述和風險因素部分的資訊。此外，有關本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計準則指標的對帳以及有關這些指標的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分中的收益報告和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很高興介紹 Arthur J. Gallagher 公司董事長兼執行長 J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.。加拉格爾先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter '24 earnings call. On the call for today is Doug Howell, our CFO, other members of the management team and the heads of our operating divisions.

非常感謝。下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的有我們的財務長 Doug Howell、管理團隊的其他成員以及我們營運部門的負責人。

Before I get to my comments about our financial results, I'd like to acknowledge the tragic wildfires in California. Our heartfelt thoughts are with all those impacted, including our own Gallagher colleagues. Our company and industry has such an important role in responsibility, helping families, businesses and communities rebuild and restore their lives. And like many times before, Gallagher and the industry will rise to the occasion.

在談論我們的財務表現之前，我想先談談加州發生的悲慘的山火。我們向所有受到影響的人表示誠摯的慰問，包括我們自己的加拉格爾同事。我們的公司和產業肩負​​著重要的責任，幫助家庭、企業和社區重建和恢復生活。和之前許多次一樣，加拉格爾和他的行業將應對自如。

Okay. Onto my comments regarding our financial performance, we had an excellent fourth quarter. For our combined brokerage and risk management segments, we posted 12% growth in revenue, our 16th consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth, 7% organic growth reported net earnings margin of 13.5% and adjusted EBITDAC growth of 17% and adjusted EBITDAC margin of 31.4%, up 145 basis points year-over-year.

好的。關於我對我們的財務表現的評論，我們第四季度的業績非常出色。就我們的經紀和風險管理部門而言，我們的收入增長了 12%，這是我們連續 16 個季度實現兩位數的收入增長，有機增長率為 7%，淨盈利利潤率為 13.5%，調整後的 EBITDAC 增長 17%，調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 31.4%，同比增長 145 個基點增長 145 個基礎增長。

GAAP earnings per share of $1.56 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.51, up 50% year-over-year. The December capital raise for the acquisition of AssuredPartners creates some noise in these headline numbers that will peel back the impact in his comments, regardless, another fantastic quarter to close out another terrific year by our team.

每股 GAAP 收益為 1.56 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.51 美元，年增 50%。12 月為收購 AssuredPartners 而籌集的資金對這些標題數字產生了一些影響，這將削弱他對此評論的影響，但無論如何，我們團隊仍將迎來又一個精彩的季度，結束又一個輝煌的一年。

Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 12%. Organic growth was 7.1%. Base commission and fees were 7.8%, in line with our expectations, which got offset a bit by slightly lower contingents. Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 168 basis points to 33.1%, which includes interest income related to funds raised for the acquisition of AssuredPartners. Excluding net interest income, margin expansion was 109 basis points.

從經紀業務部門開始，按部門劃分結果。報告的收入增長了12％。有機成長率為7.1%。基本佣金和費用為 7.8%，符合我們的預期，但由於或有費用略有下降，這一比例有所抵消。調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大 168 個基點至 33.1%，其中包括與收購 AssuredPartners 籌集的資金相關的利息收入。不包括淨利息收入，利潤率擴大了109個基點。

Let me give some insights behind our Brokerage segment organic. With our PC retail operations, we delivered 6% organic overall. The UK, Australia and New Zealand were all in the high single digits. US retail organ was around 5% and Canada was down a couple of percent, impacted by lower contingents. Our global employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of about 10%, a really strong finish that includes the catch-up of the large live case sales that shifted from earlier in '24.

讓我對我們的經紀業務部門的有機發展提供一些見解。我們的個人電腦零售業務整體實現了 6% 的有機成長。英國、澳洲和紐西蘭的增幅都處於個位數較高水準。美國零售額下降了 5% 左右，而受遊客數量減少的影響，加拿大零售額下降了數個百分點。我們的全球員工福利經紀和諮詢業務實現了約 10% 的有機成長，這是一個非常強勁的收尾，其中包括追趕了 24 年初以來的大型現場案例銷售。

Shifting to our reinsurance wholesale and specialty businesses, in total, organic of 9%, which overcame some expected market headwinds in our global aerospace business. So very strong growth, whether retail wholesale oriented.

轉向我們的再保險批發和專業業務，總體而言，有機成長率為 9%，這克服了我們全球航空航太業務中一些預期的市場阻力。無論是零售還是批發，成長都非常強勁。

Next, let me provide some thoughts on the PC insurance pricing environment starting with the primary insurance market. Overall, the global PC insurance market continues to grow. With fourth quarter renewal premium increases, that's both rate and exposure combined, consistent with the past two quarters. Thus far in January, renewal premium increases are ticking slightly higher than fourth quarter and are above 5%, driven by increases in casualty lines like Umbrella and Commercial Auto.

接下來，讓我從初級保險市場開始，對個人電腦保險定價環境提供一些看法。整體而言，全球個人電腦保險市場持續成長。隨著第四季續保費的增加，費率和風險敞口的綜合變化與過去兩個季度保持一致。截至目前，1 月續保費增幅略高於第四季度，超過 5%，這得益於 Umbrella 和 Commercial Auto 等意外險種的增幅。

Breaking down fourth quarter global renewal premium changes by product line, we saw the following: property and professional lines were about flat; workers' comp up 1%, general liability up 4%; commercial auto up 9%; umbrella up 10%; and personal lines up 9%. So we continue to see increases across most lines and geographies. Carriers are behaving rationally and pushing for increases where it's needed to generate an acceptable underwriting profit. It's a great market for us to operate in because we can further differentiate ourselves with our leading tools, data, and expertise.

依產品線細分第四季全球續保保費變化狀況，我們發現：財產險和專業險保費基本上持平；工傷賠償上漲 1%，一般責任上漲 4%；商用汽車上漲 9%；雨傘上漲10%；個人險種上漲 9%。因此，我們繼續看到大多數產品線和地區的成長。承運商的行為很理性，在需要產生可接受的承保利潤的地方推動提高保費。這對我們來說是一個很好的市場，因為我們可以透過領先的工具、數據和專業知識進一步實現差異化。

Remember, our job as brokers is to help clients find the best coverage that fits their budget while mitigating price increases. We're becoming more successful securing lower pricing for our property customers, especially CAT-exposed property, which enables them to buy more limit or reduce their deductibles resulting in more coverage for the same spend.

請記住，作為經紀人，我們的工作是幫助客戶找到最適合其預算的保險，同時降低價格上漲幅度。我們越來越成功地為我們的財產客戶，特別是受到巨災保險影響的財產客戶爭取到了更低的價格，使他們能夠購買更多限額的保險或減少免賠額，從而以相同的支出獲得更多的保障。

Shifting to the reinsurance market. Overall, 1/1 renewals were orderly and reflected an environment that generally favored reinsurance buyers. Growing demand from property CAT cover was met with sufficient reinsurance capacity despite 2024 being an elevated year with more than $150 billion of estimated insured natural catastrophe losses.

轉向再保險市場。整體而言，1/1續保有序進行，反映出整體上有利於再保險購買者的環境。儘管 2024 年的自然災害保險損失預計將超過 1500 億美元，但財產 CAT 保險日益增長的需求仍得到了足夠的再保險容量滿足。

This resulted in property price declines that were greater at the top end of reinsurance towers. And similar to January '24 renewals, reinsurers continued to exercise discipline on terms and did not revert to attachment points that expose them to greater frequency. Reinsurance buyers of specialty coverages saw modest price declines across many lines of coverage, but again, no softening in terms and conditions.

這導致再保險大樓頂層的房地產價格下跌幅度更大。與 24 年 1 月的續保類似，再保險公司繼續嚴格遵守條款，並沒有恢復到使他們面臨更高頻率的附加點。特殊保險的再保險購買者發現，多種保險類別的價格均出現小幅下降，但條款和條件並未放寬。

Shifting to casualty, while there was adequate reinsurance capacity, reinsurers remains cautious on US casualty risks due to elevated loss cost trends and potential reserve deficiencies. Looking forward, wildfire losses and casualty reserve increases seem to be the stories here in January. The time will tell how each of these ultimately impacts the market. Regardless, Gallagher Re had a fantastic 1/1 with some nice new business wins and should continue to excel in this environment.

轉向意外險，雖然再保險能力充足，但由於損失成本趨勢上升和潛在的準備金不足，再保險公司仍然對美國意外險風險持謹慎態度。展望未來，野火損失和人員傷亡增加似乎是一月份的熱門話題。時間將告訴我們這些最終將對市場產生怎樣的影響。無論如何，Gallagher Re 憑藉一些不錯的新業務贏得了出色的 1/1 業績，並應能在這種環境下繼續表現出色。

Moving to some comments on our customers' business activity. During the fourth quarter, our daily revenue indications from audits, endorsements, and cancellations remain in net positive territory. The same is true for full year 2024. While the activity is not quite as high as '23, the upward revenue adjustments this past year are very close to full year '22. So we continue to see solid client business activity and no signs of a meaningful global economic slowdown.

轉向對我們客戶的業務活動的一些評論。在第四季度，我們從審計、背書和取消中獲得的每日收入指標仍然處於淨正值區域。2024年全年也是如此。雖然活動不如23年那麼活躍，但去年的收入上調非常接近22年全年。因此，我們繼續看到客戶業務活動穩健，並且沒有出現全球經濟明顯放緩的跡象。

Within the US, the labor market remains strong. Since April '24, the number of open jobs has remained relatively steady and at a level that is still well above the number of unemployed people looking for work. Employers are looking for ways to grow their workforce and control their benefit costs. And at the same time, base wage increases and continued medical cost inflation, both are headwinds that our professionals are helping to navigate.

美國國內勞動市場依然強勁。自24年4月以來，空缺職位數量一直保持相對穩定，且仍遠高於正在尋找工作的失業人數。雇主正在尋找增加勞動力和控制福利成本的方法。同時，基本工資上漲和醫療成本持續上漲都是我們專業人員正在幫助克服的阻力。

Regardless of market conditions, I believe we are well positioned to take share across our brokerage business. Remember, 90% of the time, we are competing against the smaller local broker that cannot match our niche expertise, outstanding service for extensive data and analytics offerings. So with some nice momentum in net new business production across our brokerage business, a PC market still seeing mid-single-digit premium growth and a strong US labor market, we continue to see full year '25 brokerage segment organic in the 6% to 8% range.

無論市場狀況如何，我相信我們都有能力佔據經紀業務的份額。請記住，90％ 的時間裡，我們都在與規模較小的本地經紀商競爭，他們無法匹敵我們的專業知識、豐富的數據和分析產品以及出色的服務。因此，由於我們的經紀業務淨新業務產出勢頭良好，個人電腦市場仍呈現中等個位數保費增長，且美國勞動力市場強勁，我們繼續預計 25 年全年經紀業務有機增長率將在 6% 至 8% 之間。

Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Revenue growth was 9%, including organic of 6%. Heading into '25, we should continue to benefit from excellent client retention, increases in our customers' business activity, and rising claim counts. Adjusted EBITDAC margin was 20.6%, in line with our October expectations. Looking ahead, we still see full year 25% organic in that 6% to 8% range and margins around 20.5%.

接下來是我們的風險管理部門，加拉格爾巴塞特 (Gallagher Bassett)。營收成長 9%，其中有機成長 6%。進入25年，我們應該繼續受益於出色的客戶保留率、客戶業務活動的增加以及索賠數量的上升。調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 20.6%，符合我們 10 月的預期。展望未來，我們仍預期全年有機成長率將在 6% 至 8% 之間，為 25%，利潤率將在 20.5% 左右。

Shifting to mergers and acquisitions. During the fourth quarter, we completed 20 new tuck-in mergers at fair prices, representing around $200 million of estimated annualized revenue bringing the full year to $387 million. Those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the Gallagher family professionals. And of course, the big news in December was signing an agreement to acquire AssuredPartners with $2.9 billion of annual pro forma revenue.

轉向併購。第四季度，我們以公平價格完成了 20 項新的內部合併，預計年化收入約為 2 億美元，使全年收入達到 3.87 億美元。對於新合夥人的加入，我謹向加拉格爾家族的專業人士表示最熱烈的歡迎。當然，12 月的重頭新聞是簽署協議，以 29 億美元的年預計收入收購 AssuredPartners。

It's a compelling opportunity to build upon our commercial market focus, deepen our niche practice groups and further leverage our data and analytics, allowing us to provide even more value to clients. It should also expand our tuck-in M&A reach and create more retail and specialty revenue opportunities across Gallagher.

這是一個極具吸引力的機會，讓我們能夠鞏固商業市場重點，深化我們的利基實踐團隊，並進一步利用我們的數據和分析，從而為客戶提供更多價值。它還可以擴大我們的內部併購範圍，並在加拉格爾創造更多的零售和專業收入機會。

What is especially exciting is that the combination involves two highly innovative entrepreneurial and sales-based cultures. Although we will continue to operate as two independent companies until close, we have started discussions and are very impressed with the talent, professionalism, and excitement of the Assured colleagues. We anticipate we will receive necessary approvals and complete the acquisition sometime here in the first quarter.

尤其令人興奮的是，這種結合涉及兩種高度創新的創業文化和銷售文化。儘管在合併結束前我們將繼續作為兩家獨立的公司運營，但我們已經開始討論，並對 Assured 同事的才華、專業和熱情印象深刻。我們預計將在第一季的某個時候獲得必要的批准並完成收購。

In addition to the pending Assured Partners acquisition, we have about 45 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $603 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher.

除了即將進行的 Assured Partners 收購之外，我們還簽署了或正在準備約 45 份條款清單，相當於約 6.03 億美元的年收入。好的公司總是有選擇的，如果他們選擇與加拉格爾合作那就太好了。

With a strong close of the year, let me reflect on our full year financial performance for brokerage and risk management combined: 15% growth in revenue, 7.6% organic growth, 18% growth in adjusted EBITDAC, 48 mergers completed with nearly $400 million in estimated annualized revenue, and we signed a definitive agreement to acquire AssuredPartners. These are terrific metrics. And as proud as I am of the excellent financial performance this year, I'm more proud of the way our culture stay true as we continue to expand.

隨著今年的強勁收官，讓我來回顧我們全年經紀和風險管理的財務業績：收入增長 15%，有機增長 7.6%，調整後 EBITDAC 增長 18%，完成 48 筆合併，預計年收入近 4 億美元，並且我們簽署了收購 AssuredPartners 的最終協議。這些都是非常棒的指標。我為今年出色的財務表現感到自豪，但更為我們不斷擴張的同時仍保持企業文化而感到自豪。

Our culture is about our colleagues, guided by the Gallagher Way and the rock-solid foundation they form based on every intervention we have, whether it's clients, carriers, future merger partners, or with our Gallagher colleagues around the globe. Frankly, our culture is unstoppable and that is the Gallagher Way.

我們的文化是關於我們的同事的，以加拉格爾方式和他們基於我們的每一次幹預而形成的堅如磐石的基礎為指導，無論是客戶、承運人、未來的合併夥伴，還是我們世界各地的加拉格爾同事。坦白說，我們的文化是不可阻擋的，這就是加拉格爾方式。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

好的。我現在就停下來，把話題交給 Doug。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll quickly recap some sound bites from our quarter end replay our early thoughts on 2025, most of which Pat just touched on, then use the rest of my time to unpack the impact of the AssuredPartners financing activities on our results during the quarter. Then I'll wrap up my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M&A, and capital management.

謝謝，帕特，大家好。今天，我將快速回顧我們季度末的一些內容，重播我們對 2025 年的早期想法，其中大部分是 Pat 剛剛提到的，然後利用剩下的時間來分析 AssuredPartners 融資活動對我們本季業績的影響。然後，我將以對現金、併購和資本管理的慣常評論來結束我準備好的演講。

Okay, highlights from our fourth quarter you'll see in our earnings release, terrific base mission and fee organic growth of 7.8% and solid supplemental growth of 4.7%. And while contingents went backwards a bit this quarter, we don't see that as a trend by any means.

好的，您會在我們的收益報告中看到我們第四季度的亮點，即出色的基本任務和費用有機增長 7.8% 以及穩健的補充增長 4.7%。儘管本季隊伍數量略有下降，但我們並不認為這是一種趨勢。

As I look to 2025 brokerage organic, Pat relayed that we're in a favorable environment with rates still needing to increase to cover higher loss costs, trillions of global premiums growing and inflating, and our sales and service offerings outpacing our competitors which should increase both new business and our retentions. So as we sit here today, we still believe our full year '25 brokerage segment organic growth should be in that 6% to 8% range. That's unchanged from what we said in October.

當我展望2025年的經紀業務有機增長時，帕特轉達說，我們正處於一個有利的環境中，費率仍然需要增加以彌補更高的損失成本，數萬億美元的全球保費不斷增長和膨脹，我們的銷售和服務超過我們的競爭對手，這應該會增加新業務和我們的保留。因此，今天我們仍然相信，25年全年經紀業務的有機成長應該在 6% 到 8% 之間。這與我們十月所說的沒有改變。

As for brokerage margins, a little noise on page 5 of the earnings release. Please see the footnote. You'll read that the margin was aided by about $20 million of interest income earned on cash we are holding to close Assured Partners. Adjusting for that, our margins would have been 32.5%, up 109 basis points over last year. That's nicely above our October expectation of margin expansion in the 90 to 100 basis point range.

至於經紀利潤率，收益報告第 5 頁上有一些噪音。請參閱腳註。您將看到，利潤率得益於我們為完成 Assured Partners 交易而持有的約 2,000 萬美元現金所產生的利息收入。經過上述調整後，我們的利潤率將達到 32.5%，比去年同期上漲 109 個基點。這遠高於我們 10 月預期的 90 至 100 個基點的利潤率成長範圍。

Looking ahead to '25, we are still viewing margin expansion like we have -- like we've said many times before. We see margin expansion starting around full year organic growth of 4%. At 6%, maybe we could see 50 basis points, and at 8%, perhaps 100 basis points of expansion. Of course, those ranges can then be impacted by changes to interest income on our fiduciary assets and then the rolling impact of M&A.

展望25年，我們仍然期待利潤率擴大，就像我們之前多次說過的那樣。我們預計利潤率將從全年有機成長率 4% 左右開始擴大。如果利率達到 6%，我們或許可以看到 50 個基點的擴張；如果利率達到 8%，我們或許可以看到 100 個基點的擴張。當然，這些範圍可能會受到信託資產利息收入變化以及併購的滾動影響的影響。

By our March IR day, maybe we will have a better read on where interest rates might go and also the impact of Assured rolling into our numbers. But at this time, we don't see either having a significant impact on those ranges. So really no change to how we're thinking about margins in 2025.

到 3 月的 IR 日，也許我們將對利率走向以及 Assured 對我們的數字的影響有更好的了解。但目前，我們還沒有看到任何一種因素會對這些範圍產生重大影響。所以我們對 2025 年利潤率的看法其實沒有改變。

As for risk management, another solid quarter posting 6% organic. Admittedly, a couple of million dollars below our October expectations, all stemming from a smaller quarter of construction consulting revenues in the Northeast that can be just a little bit lumpy.

風險管理方面，本季又錄得 6% 的有機成長，表現穩健。不可否認的是，10 月的收入比我們的預期低了幾百萬美元，這都是因為東北地區建築諮詢收入本季較小，而且波動較大。

So adjusted margin expansion of 20.6% in the quarter was also in line with our October expectations. And then looking forward, we're seeing full year '25 organic also in that 6% to 8% range margins again around 20.5% for the year. So a great quarter and full year by both our brokerage and risk management teams and both have a strong outlook for '25.

因此，本季調整後利潤率成長 20.6% 也符合我們 10 月的預期。展望未來，我們預計 25 年全年有機利潤率將在 6% 至 8% 之間，全年利潤率將再次達到 20.5% 左右。因此，我們的經紀和風險管理團隊在本季和全年都表現出色，並且對 25 年的前景持樂觀態度。

Turning to page 6 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. For the interest in banking line, we are a bit better than our October forecast because we just were not into our line as much as we thought at that time. For the adjusted acquisition lines for M&A and clean energy, both were close to our October expectations. Then when you look at the corporate line of the corporate segment, that was better than our expectation due to unrealized non-cash foreign exchange remeasurement income, which was partially offset by a return to actual tax catch-up of about $4 million.

翻到財報第 6 頁及公司部門快速表。對於銀行業務的興趣，我們比 10 月的預測要好一些，因為我們當時對我們的業務的興趣沒有我們想像的那麼多。對於調整後的併購和清潔能源收購線，都接近我們 10 月的預期。然後，當您查看公司部門的公司線時，這比我們的預期要好，這是由於未實現的非現金外匯重估收入，但部分被約 400 萬美元的實際稅收補足所抵消。

So let's move from our earnings release to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our IR website. First, an overarching statement. Please take some time to read any headers or footnotes throughout this document to understand what information has or hasn't been updated for the AssuredPartners deal.

因此，讓我們從收益報告轉到我們在 IR 網站上發布的 CFO 評論文件。首先，要有一個總體聲明。請花一些時間閱讀本文檔中的所有頁首或腳註，以了解 AssuredPartners 交易中已更新或未更新的資訊。

So let's move to page 3 for our modeling helpers, across the board, fourth quarter '24 actual numbers were fairly close to what we provided that in October. As for '25, we provided a first look of what we forecast. Again, none of these numbers include any impact from AssuredPartners.

因此，讓我們轉到第 3 頁，查看我們的建模助手，總體而言，24 年第四季的實際數字與我們 10 月提供的數字非常接近。對於‘25年，我們提供了初步的預測。再次強調，這些數字都不包括 AssuredPartners 的影響。

Turning to Page 4. I first look at our corporate segment outlook for full year '25. The only impact of Assured is the interest -- is found in the interest in banking line. It includes additional interest expense from the $5 billion debt raise. Looking to page 5 of the CFO commentary document where our tax credit carryforwards. As of year-end, about $770 million that will be used over the next few years, so still a nice sweetener to fund future M&A.

翻到第 4 頁。我先來看看我們25年全年的公司部門前景。保險的唯一影響是利息－存在於銀行額度內的利息中。其中包括 50 億美元債務增發帶來的額外利息支出。請參閱 CFO 評論文件第 5 頁，其中列出了我們的稅收抵免結轉。截至年底，未來幾年將使用約 7.7 億美元，因此對於資助未來的併購仍然是一筆不錯的資金。

We would not expect those numbers to move much because of the Assured financing nor the rolling of Assured's taxable income. That's because of the interest shield and also the amortization of the $5 billion deferred tax asset that we'll get with Assured Partners, that should save us about $1.4 billion of taxes over the coming years.

我們預計這些數字不會因為 Assured 的融資或 Assured 的應稅收入的滾動而發生太大變化。這是因為我們將從 Assured Partners 獲得利息保護和 50 億美元遞延稅務資產的攤銷，這將在未來幾年為我們節省約 14 億美元的稅金。

Flipping over to page 6, the investment income table. This table includes an assumption of 225 basis point rate cuts in '25. It includes interest income from cash we're holding to pay for Assured, assuming a late March close. But it does not include interest income from Assured's fiduciary assets after closing.

翻到第六頁，投資收益表。表包含 25 年降息 225 個基點的假設。它包括我們為支付 Assured 而持有的現金的利息收入（假設 3 月底收盤）。但其中不包括交易結束後Assured信託資產的利息收入。

When you ship down on page 6 to the rollover revenue table, the pinkish column to the right include estimated revenues for brokerage M&A that we closed through yesterday. Then below that table, we've added a separate section for AssuredPartners revenues, again, assuming a late March close, which, of course, is highly dependent on regulatory approvals. Then just a reminder, you also need to make a pick for other future M&A. And then further down on that page, you'll see Risk Management segment rollover revenues for '25 are expected to be approximately $5 million for each of the first two quarters. All right.

當您向下捲動到第 6 頁的展期收入表時，右側的粉紅色欄位包括我們昨天完成的經紀併購的預期收入。然後在該表下方，我們為 AssuredPartners 的收入添加了一個單獨的部分，同樣假設在 3 月底收盤，當然，這高度依賴監管部門的批准。那麼提醒一下，您還需要為其他未來的併購做出選擇。然後在該頁面的下方，您會看到，預計 25 年前兩個季度的風險管理部門展期收入分別約為 500 萬美元。好的。

Moving to page 7. This is a new page to help you see the impact of the AssuredPartners financing on our fourth quarter '24 revenues, EBITDAC, net earnings, and EPS by segment. The three items just to keep in mind. There was additional incremental interest income on the cash that we were holding to fund the acquisition, there was additional interest expense we incurred on the newly issued $5 billion worth of debt, and then the additional shares outstanding from the December equity offering.

移至第 7 頁。這是一個新頁面，可協助您了解 AssuredPartners 融資對我們 24 年第四季營收、EBITDAC、淨收益和各部門每股盈餘的影響。這三件事只需牢記在心。我們為收購而持有的現金產生了額外的增量利息收入，新發行的價值 50 億美元的債務以及 12 月股票發行中額外流通的股票產生了額外的利息支出。

You'll see that for fourth quarter, it all nets out to nearly nothing, but it does cause a little noise in our numbers. Also, the call-out box on the right of that page provides some information on shares outstanding. Because of the AssuredPartners equity raise for our first quarter, this includes the full impact of the shares we issued in December and the exercise of the greenshoe in early January.

您會發現，對於第四季度來說，所有的淨收入幾乎為零，但這確實為我們的數字帶來了一些噪音。此外，該頁面右側的標註框也提供了一些有關流通股的資訊。由於我們第一季 AssuredPartners 的股權增加，這包括了我們 12 月發行的股票和 1 月初行使綠鞋選擇權的全部影響。

Finally, if you flip to page 8, you'll see on this page is just a repeat of what we provided in the December assured presentation for ease of reference. There's no new news on this page.

最後，如果您翻到第 8 頁，您會看到這一頁只是我們在 12 月保證的演示中提供的內容的重複，以方便參考。該頁上沒有新新聞。

Finally, let's move in cash, capital management and M&A funding. Available cash on hand at December 31 was more than $14 billion, of which approximately $13.5 billion will be used to fund AssuredPartners. Since year-end, we received another $1.3 billion as the underwriters exercised the green shoe. So considering this and our strong expected free cash flow, we are in an excellent position to fund our M&A pipeline of opportunities.

最後，讓我們討論現金、資本管理和併購融資。截至 12 月 31 日可用的現金超過 140 億美元，其中約 135 億美元將用於資助 AssuredPartners。自年底以來，由於承銷商行使了超額配售權，我們又獲得了 13 億美元。因此，考慮到這一點以及我們強勁的預期自由現金流，我們處於極佳的位置來為我們的併購機會提供資金。

Here in '25, it's looking like we could have $3.5 billion to fund future M&A then it jumps up to nearly $5 billion in '26, all while maintaining a solid investment-grade rating. So an excellent quarter and an excellent year to have in the books. As I reflect on '24, I have to say that we had a pretty terrific year.

在 25 年，我們似乎可以擁有 35 億美元來資助未來的併購，然後在 26 年躍升至近 50 億美元，同時保持穩固的投資級評級。因此，這是一個值得載入史冊的出色的季度和出色的年度。當我回顧 24 年時，我不得不說我們度過了相當美好的一年。

For the combined Brokerage and Risk Management segment, we posted adjusted revenue growth of 14%, organic of 7.6%. Overall margin expansion of 94 basis points, and most importantly, we grew our EBITDAC 18%. Those are terrific numbers and reflects what Pat said, that's our unstoppable culture.

就經紀和風險管理部門而言，我們公佈的調整後收入成長率為 14%，有機成長率為 7.6%。整體利潤率擴大了 94 個基點，最重要的是，我們的 EBITDAC 成長了 18%。這些數字非常了不起，體現了帕特所說的，這是我們不可阻擋的文化。

So those are my comments. Back to you, Pat.

以上就是我的評論。回到你身邊，帕特。

Thanks, Doug. Rob, do you want to open it up for questions.

謝謝，道格。羅布，你想開放提問嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）BMO 資本市場 Mike Zaremski。

First question, surrounding the cadence of organic growth next year, loud and clear, 6% to 8%, no change, I guess, for both segments. I guess I'm more specifically focused on the Brokerage segment. But in terms of the cadence seasonality, anything you'd like to call out two of your peers called out kind of weaker seasonality in 1Q. We do know that reinsurance is overweight in the beginning of the year two and maybe downward pricing there could cause some year-over-year tougher comps.

第一個問題，關於明年有機成長的節奏，答案很明確，6% 到 8%，我猜，對兩個部門來說都沒有改變。我想我比較專注於經紀業務領域。但就節奏季節性而言，您想指出的兩個同行在第一季都指出了較弱的季節性。我們確實知道，在第二年初，再保險的比重過大，也許再保險的定價下行可能會導致同比業績更加疲軟。

Let me go back to that -- let me start with the end of that is there have been some price changes on the reinsurance, but our customers are buying more reinsurance. So when you look at the total spend for us that our customers are spending, we're really not seeing a decrease. And like Pat said in his comments, we had a terrific new business quarter also. Going back to the first part of your question, yes, reinsurance is typically stronger in the first quarter. And so you could see some seasonality of better organic growth in the first quarter than what develops up for the rest of the year.

讓我回到這個問題——讓我從最後開始說，再保險的價格發生了一些變化，但我們的客戶正在購買更多的再保險。因此，當您查看客戶為我們花費的總支出時，我們確實沒有看到減少。正如帕特在評論中所說，我們也度過了一個非常棒的新業務季度。回到你問題的第一部分，是的，再保險通常在第一季表現更強勁。因此，您可以看到第一季的有機成長優於今年剩餘時間的季節性成長。

Offsetting a little bit about that is we do have a substantial amount of our health and welfare and medical benefits that renew in the first quarter. that mitigate maybe a higher reinsurance on it. And then throughout the year, our retail is performing well. Our wholesale seems to be getting stronger and stronger. Our programs are doing well. But yes, you would see a little seasonality because of reinsurance in the first quarter and our organic growth.

與此稍微抵銷的是，我們確實有大量的健康、福利和醫療福利在第一季更新。這或許可以減輕更高的再保險成本。全年來看，我們的零售業務表現良好。我們的批發似乎越來越強大了。我們的專案進展順利。但是的，由於第一季的再保險和我們的有機成長，你會看到一些季節性的影響。

Okay. Got it. So you're saying actually it could be higher, not lower, even the reinsurance pricing is down. Okay.

好的。知道了。所以你是說實際上它可能會更高，而不是更低，即使再保險價格下降了。好的。

If I have a chance to talk to you again on our March IR Day, then we should have a better feel of the seasonality for that, too.

如果我有機會在三月的 IR 日再次與您交談，那麼我們也應該更好地感受到季節性。

Okay. Awesome. The last question is on do share investment income, I'm thinking through post the deal close, if you're able to comment. So my understanding that the company purchasing kind of didn't fully leverage its fiduciary income in that it had a lot of kind of -- it's kind of -- it was direct pay relationships between the businesses paying directly to the insurance carriers and you guys might be able to optimize that working capital to gain more fiduciary assets. Is that if that's what I'm describing is correct, could you offer kind of a timeline, and how that works in terms of kind of getting those asset balances onto your balance sheet?

好的。驚人的。最後一個問題是關於分享投資收益，我正在考慮交易結束後的問題，如果你可以發表評論的話。因此，我的理解是，購買的公司並沒有充分利用其受託收入，因為它有很多種——有點——它是企業直接向保險公司支付之間的直接支付關係，你們可能能夠優化營運資金以獲得更多的受託資產。如果我描述的正確的話，您能否提供一個時間表，以及如何將這些資產餘額納入您的資產負債表？

Yes. Yes. Your recollection is correct. And I think that if you go back, I don't know, 10 years ago when we went through our exercise of consolidating bank accounts from around the world. This will be obviously mostly in the US.

是的。是的。你的回憶是正確的。我認為，如果回顧一下，我不知道，十年前，我們當時正在進行整合來自世界各地的銀行帳戶的工作。這顯然主要發生在美國。

We did have some good success of picking up more fiduciary cash into our accounts, and I think that will be invested. So we do see that as an opportunity that will be better together on that metric. So yes, there should be versus their run rate, I'm guessing, together will be better on that going forward.

我們確實成功地將更多的信託現金存入我們的帳戶，我認為這些現金將會被投資。因此，我們確實認為這是一個機會，可以讓我們在衡量標準上取得更好的進展。所以是的，我猜應該與他們的運行率進行比較，在未來的合作會更好。

Doug, is just any -- is that kind of a one-year process or is that like a takes many years?

道格，這是一個需要一年的時間的過程嗎，還是需要很多年的時間？

Listen, I -- listen, in 18 months, we shouldn't be talking about it anymore. So I think we'd get it done. Hopefully, faster.

聽著，我──聽著，18個月後，我們就不該再談論它了。所以我認為我們能完成它。希望能夠更快。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I guess I'd like to start with California. Given the substantial potential loss to the insured market, there's if you could give us some perspective of how it might touch your operations. I'm interested in the business going in inside RPS, if there's any impact on the wholesale market that you're seeing. If you can just talk about your perspectives of that as we watch this disaster unfold that would be great.

我想先從加州開始。鑑於保險市場可能遭受的巨大損失，您能否向我們介紹這可能會對您的營運產生什麼影響。如果您發現 RPS 內部的業務對批發市場有任何影響，我會很感興趣。如果您能在我們看到這場災難發生時談談您的看法，那就太好了。

Well, first of all, Greg, this is Pat. We reached out to thousands of clients already to make sure that they had the knowledge of how to file claims and what have you. how to get a hold of us if they're having difficulty in filing those claims. We are presently tracking. I forget the exact number today, but we have hundreds of claims that we're helping our clients with already.

嗯，首先，格雷格，這是帕特。我們已經聯繫了數千名客戶，以確保他們知道如何提出索賠以及可以獲得哪些賠償。如果他們在提出索賠時遇到困難，如何聯絡我們。我們目前正在追蹤。我忘記了今天的確切數字，但我們已經幫助客戶處理了數百起索賠。

I think that you've got a situation, it's going to continue to unfold for us. We're a big player in California. We're a big player in Los Angeles, not huge in personal lines there, but it's going to keep us incredibly busy for a number of months. And then in terms of the impact of that, luckily, again, we've been able to stay in touch with our people.

我認為你已經遇到了這種情況，它將繼續向我們展現。我們是加州的重要參與者。我們是洛杉磯的重要參與者，雖然在那裡的個人線路上規模不大，但這會讓我們在接下來的幾個月裡異常忙碌。就其影響而言，幸運的是，我們再次能夠與我們的員工保持聯繫。

We have had our folks at -- in some instances, were evacuated. We did not lose anybody and don't have many of our folks that have lost any of their homes. So I think we'll be well in a strong place to help our clients. But I can't give you much more than that right now in terms of how it's going to impact our day-to-day activities out there.

在某些情況下，我們的人員已經被疏散。我們沒有失去任何人，也沒有太多親人失去家園的人。因此我認為我們能夠更好地幫助我們的客戶。但就這將如何影響我們的日常活動而言，目前我無法透露更多。

Okay. And then I guess my follow-up question is switch gears. You mentioned in your comments about the lower contingents. Just curious, given the profitability we're seeing in the industry, I would have imagined that supplementals and it continues to be up. And I think your guidance for '25 suggests that they should go back up again. But maybe you could spend a minute and give us some color on what happened with contingents, and then color on your outlook.

好的。然後我想我的後續問題是轉換話題。您在評論中提到了較低的隊伍。只是好奇，考慮到我們看到的行業獲利能力，我會想像補充資料的價格會繼續上漲。我認為你對 25 年的指導表明它們應該再次回升。但也許您可以花一點時間告訴我們特遣隊發生的事情，然後闡述您的觀點。

Yes, great question, Greg. Thanks for asking. Let us said I ended in my comments. This isn't a trend in what you said there is right. We would expect it to bounce back up again.

是的，格雷格，這個問題問得很好。謝謝你的提問。可以說我的評論已經結束了。這不是您說的趨勢，對吧。我們預計它會再次反彈。

Frankly, it's simply because as we get the final year and loss ratio estimates in from the carriers. They're coming up just a little bit higher than what maybe we had been anticipating throughout the year. And to put this in context, we see this as about maybe a $7 million shortfall to what we're thinking back in October. A third of it is -- 2/3 of it is spread across hundreds of contracts. And so if the loss ratios are ticking up just a little bit it might -- that probably cost us $4 million of it.

坦白說，這只是因為我們從承運商那裡獲得了最後一年的損失率估計。它們的成長速度比我們全年預期的要高一點。具體來說，我們認為這比我們 10 月預測的金額可能有 700 萬美元的缺口。其中三分之一——三分之二分佈在數百份合約中。因此，如果損失率稍微上升，我們可能會損失 400 萬美元。

And then another 1/3 is we had about three contracts in and programs in Canada that just really kind of came in here in January with really not very great results. So that's what -- but if you look at it on an annual basis, when you combine supplementals and contingents, I think if I do the math here, mentally, I think it's about 8%, even with a small blip in the fourth quarter. So it's still a terrific year. But I wouldn't overread that there's some systemic shift in what contingents and supplementals are going to be going forward. So I would expect those numbers to grow over the blip this year considerably.

另外三分之一是我們在加拿大簽訂的三份合約和項目，這些合約和項目是一月份才簽訂的，但結果並不太好。所以就是這樣 — — 但如果你從年度角度來看，當你將補充費用和或有費用結合起來時，我想如果我在這裡進行計算，從心理上講，我認為它大約是 8%，即使在第四季度出現了小幅波動。所以這仍然是非常棒的一年。但我不會過度解讀未來緊急和補充措施將發生的系統性轉變。因此我預計今年這些數字將會大幅成長。

Just a clarification on that answer, Doug. Is there a specific line of business, is there across, a broader business set?

只是想澄清一下這個答案，道格。是否有特定的業務線？

It's across the line, right? I mean I wouldn't say anything there. We have hundreds of these contracts. So -- and we get a lot of this information coming in here right around the first week or two of January. I guess, by the way I'm saying on the $600 million number only to have maybe $3 million or $4 million of what I would say, loss ratio. I think our picks have been pretty good throughout the year.

這已經越界了，對吧？我的意思是我不會在那裡說任何話。我們有數百份這樣的合約。所以 — — 我們在一月份的第一周或第二週左右獲得了很多這樣的資訊。順便說一下，我說的 6 億美元數字可能只有 300 萬或 400 萬美元的損失率。我認為我們全年的選擇都相當不錯。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

道明證券 (TD Securities) 的安德魯‧克利格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)。

First question is around the risk management segment. Thinking back to last year, you had guided to 9% to 11% organic growth for this year. And now for next year -- for '24 that is, and now for '25, you're guiding to 6% to 8%, which I still think is fabulous. But what's kind of changing that your guidance isn't light as robust as it was to start last year?

第一個問題是關於風險管理部分的。回想去年，您預計今年的有機成長率將達到 9% 至 11%。現在對於明年 - 也就是24年，以及25年，您預計的成長率為6％到8％，我仍然認為這個數字非常棒。但是，是什麼發生了變化，導致您的指導不像去年開始時那麼輕鬆和有力？

Here's the thing is I think that this business, if you recall, we can get some pretty large contracts that come in. It is a little bit more elephant hunting, so to speak. So this year, I think that we've got some nice new business in the pipeline coming into '25. And so I think if you go back in the history of Gallagher Bassett and the risk management say, well, we have periods like this, we're able to grow mid-single digits, something like that, and then they'll have a couple of nice large contracts. We still see that happening.

事情是這樣的，我認為，如果你還記得的話，這項業務我們可以獲得一些相當大的合約。可以這麼說，這有點像是獵殺大象。所以，我認為，今年我們在25年將會有一些不錯的新業務。因此，我認為，如果你回顧加拉格爾巴塞特的歷史，風險管理部門會說，好吧，我們經歷了這樣的時期，我們能夠實現中等個位數的增長，諸如此類，然後他們就會有幾份不錯的大合約。我們仍然看到這種情況發生。

Some of our government programs that we do down in Australia. I have some nice opportunity. And then more and more, we're proving to the carriers left and right, that we can actually deliver better claim outcomes on that business. And as a carrier decides to use us for their claim's payment process on work comp and general liability. We're not storm chasers. Remember, then -- but it is a little bit more of a lumpy business as we -- because we get some pretty nice ice.

我們在澳洲所進行的一些政府計畫。我有一些很好的機會。然後，我們不斷向各家保險公司證明，我們確實能夠在該業務上提供更好的索賠結果。並且承運人決定使用我們來處理工傷賠償和一般責任的索賠支付流程。我們不是風暴追逐者。請記住——但這是我們的一個更棘手的業務——因為我們得到了一些非常好的冰。

So like you never know, you could probably find another elephant this year, right?

所以，你永遠不知道，今年你可能會發現另一頭大象，對嗎？

Yes, right. There is impact -- our product list is always filled with elephants. Just to hide (inaudible) every once in a while.

是的，對。這是有影響的——我們的產品清單上總是充滿了大象。只是為了時不時地躲起來（聽不清楚）。

Got it. And then I was just kind of curious about your operations in India with Center for Excellence where I think you have about 12,000 employees right now. And as you look out through this year, do you need to add people given the AssuredPartners transaction? Can you keep it steady? And is technology making it such that you really don't need to hire that much?

知道了。然後我只是有點好奇你們在印度的卓越中心的運作情況，我認為你們現在那裡有大約 12,000 名員工。展望今年，考慮到 AssuredPartners 交易，您是否需要增加人員？你能保持穩定嗎？而且科技是否使得你真的不需要雇用那麼多人呢？

Well, you got both ends of that correct, Andrew. We're going to be using technology quite a bit. And as we use technology that does make that group, they're much more efficient. And yet at the very same time, our organic growth and our acquisition growth puts a lot more demand in the structure. And so at about 12,000 employees, I think that at this time next year, you'll see us up additional thousands.

嗯，安德魯，你說的兩點都是正確的。我們將會大量使用科技。當我們使用科技來打造這個群體時，他們的效率就會大大提高。但同時，我們的有機成長和收購成長對結構提出了更高的要求。因此，我們擁有大約 12,000 名員工，我認為到明年這個時候，您會看到我們的員工人數再增加數千人。

Yes. The other thing to think about is the value that it brings is when it goes into our service centers, remember, those are our folks they're not working for anybody else. They work for us. It causes standardization, it causes process improvement. I got to tell you, that gives us a head start by years and years when it comes to implementing technologies and AI into the work that's already been standardized.

是的。要考慮的另一件事是它帶來的價值，當它進入我們的服務中心時，請記住，那些是我們的人，他們不為任何其他人工作。他們為我們工作。它促進標準化，促進流程改善。我得告訴你，這讓我們在將技術和人工智慧應用到已經標準化的工作中時領先了好幾年。

And truthfully, as we develop AI technology that replaced some of that work there all of those folks have opportunities as our growth, they don't lose their jobs. It's just they move up higher in the value chain on it. And so it's really a juggernaut in my opinion, in terms of our ability to offer some of the very best service in the world.

說實話，隨著我們開發出人工智慧技術來取代部分工作，所有這些人都隨著我們的發展而獲得了機會，他們不會失去工作。他們只不過是在價值鏈中向上移動了一步。因此，我認為，就我們提供世界上最好的服務的能力而言，這確實是一個巨大的進步。

And unless you standardize that service; a, you can't automate it. But b, when you do standardize it, it makes you better and better at the service for our clients, just take certificates of insurance. We're going to issue 3 million, 4 million of them pretty much air free. There aren't any real brokers that can claim that.

除非你將該服務標準化； a，你不能實現自動化。但是，當您確實對其進行標準化時，它會讓您越來越好地為我們的客戶提供服務，只需獲取保險證明即可。我們將免費發放 300 萬至 400 萬張。沒有任何真正的經紀人可以做出這樣的宣稱。

I see. So maybe the bottom-line takeaway is you may add 1,000 or 2 employees, but it's still scalable. You're still getting better margins from that. Is that the right final takeaway

我懂了。因此，也許底線結論是，您可以增加 1,000 名或 2 名員工，但它仍然是可擴展的。您仍然可以從中獲得更好的利潤。這是正確的最終結論嗎

Yes, you're right on the money.

是的，你說得很對。

It won't surprise me that in like-for-like in five years, we've doubled that number.

五年內，我們的銷售額就翻了一番，這並不令我感到驚訝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

My first question is on the brokerage outlook for '25. So you reaffirmed the 6% to 8%, Doug, I think when we last spoke in October, you said maybe benefits is a 5, reinsurance is 9. I want to confirm that's where you still see it. And then you also had said you would provide, I think, by line in a little bit more detail at the December day, which did not happen. Could you give us a sense even away from benefits in reinsurance, just how you see all your businesses trending organically in the 6% to 8% '25 brokerage guide?

我的第一個問題是關於25年的經紀業務前景。因此，道格，您重申了 6% 到 8% 的比例，我想當我們上次在 10 月談話時，您說過福利可能是 5，再保險是 9。我想確認你仍然在那裡看到它。然後你還說過你會在 12 月提供更詳細的信息，但這並沒有發生。您能否告訴我們，即使不考慮再保險的收益，您如何看待您的所有業務在 6% 到 8% 的 25 年經紀指南中呈現有機趨勢？

Yes, confirming everything you said. I think Pat did a pretty good job in his script of telling you how those businesses are growing right now. I think those are good guesses for next year at this point.

是的，確認你所說的一切。我認為帕特在他的劇本中很好地告訴你了這些業務目前是如何發展的。我認為目前這些是對明年的正確猜測。

Okay. That's helpful. And then my follow-up question. How do you see -- how is there a pipeline of transactions, right? You guys also did a good number of bolt-on deals to end the quarter and in terms of the AP pipeline, I know when you guys announced the deal, you highlighted the fact that there was very little overlap on pipelines. So would you expect, I guess, once the deal closes, at some point at the end of the Q1, I guess, that kind of just the quarterly level of M&A activity could pick up from bringing on that -- from bringing the two firms together.

好的。這很有幫助。然後是我的後續問題。您如何看待——交易管道是怎樣的，對嗎？你們還在本季末完成了大量的附加交易，就 AP 頻道而言，我知道當你們宣布這筆交易時，你們強調了一個事實，即頻道上的重疊很少。所以，我想，您是否預計，一旦交易完成，也就是在第一季末的某個時候，由於兩家公司的合併，季度併購活動的水平可能會有所回升。

So Elyse, this is Pat. I'll answer that. I think, first of all, the -- we have to continue to operate these enterprises separately until we're closed. But we do know that there's very little overlap at all. and AssuredPartners has been very, very good at tuck-in acquisitions.

那麼 Elyse，這是 Pat。我來回答這個問題。我認為，首先，我們必須繼續單獨經營這些企業，直到我們關閉為止。但我們確實知道，重疊部分非常小。 AssuredPartners 在秘密收購方面非常擅長。

And as you saw in our -- when we were making the announcement, there has not been that much overlap between things that we wanted to put on and things that they actually bought. So there -- we view their pipeline is very, very accretive to what we're doing and not a lot of overlap. And I think that's going to be fantastic. They've got a great team doing this stuff. We're impressed with what we've seen in due diligence and the like as to what they've done, what they've bought and the pricing they're getting for that.

正如你所看到的——當我們發佈公告時，我們想要上架的東西和他們實際購買的東西之間並沒有太多的重疊。所以，我們認為他們的管道對於我們所做的事情非常非常有益，而且沒有太多的重疊。我認為這將會非常棒。他們有一個出色的團隊來做這些事情。我們對盡職調查等方面的工作、購買的東西以及得到的定價印象深刻。

And I think you will see us increase substantially the number of deals. Now they're small deals. They're very good. They're very good at tuck-in bolt-ons and small privately held firms in and about many of the parts of the country that we're not in.

我想你會看到我們交易的數量大幅增加。現在它們都是小交易。他們非常棒。他們非常擅長在我們所沒有涉足的許多地區以及週邊地區建立附加企業和小型私人企業。

And then the 1.3 -- sorry, go ahead.

然後是 1.3 ——抱歉，請繼續。

Sorry, go ahead.

抱歉，請說。

I was just going to say the $1.3 billion from the green shoe, right, that wasn't contemplated, right? Because the financing was there without it. So is that just extra cash that you have for the pipeline, the capital that Doug was talking about in his comments?

我剛才想說的是，綠鞋計畫帶來的 13 億美元是沒有考慮到的，對吧？因為即使沒有它，融資仍然在那裡。那麼，這些只是你們為管道建設而投入的額外現金，也就是 Doug 在評論中提到的資本嗎？

Yes. That's right.

是的。這是正確的。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯（Mark Hughes），Truist Securities。

The guidance you gave for the first core contribution from AssuredPartners. Is there any seasonality there? Or is that just the timing of the deal?

您為 AssuredPartners 的第一個核心貢獻提供的指導。那裡有季節性嗎？或者這只是交易的時機問題？

Right now, we've assumed that's just the timing of the deal. We will -- they will have some seasonality, especially in their benefit business and then anything that might be a public entity type business might be skewed to July. So you'd see a little bit of seasonality, but what you see in there is a pure straight-line assumption of it.

目前，我們假設這只是交易的時機。我們會 — — 他們會有一些季節性，特別是在他們的福利業務方面，然後任何可能是公共實體類型的業務都可能會偏向 7 月。因此，您會看到一點季節性，但您在其中看到的是純粹的直線假設。

And then, Pat, in the wholesale business, you gave a wholesale and reinsurance together, I think, up 9%. Any detail you can provide on wholesale observations on the NS market?

然後，帕特，在批發業務中，我認為批發和再保險合計增長了 9%。您能提供有關 NS 市場批發觀察的任何詳細資訊嗎？

Let me take a look, Mark.

讓我看看，馬克。

Yes, I think I've got -- I think that you've got to look at our UK specialty at maybe around 7%. You look at US specialty maybe on the 10%. Re is pretty small in the quarter. It's just not a big quarter for us. So if you look at those two numbers, we get -- maybe that gets us back to that 9% number there.

是的，我認為—我認為你必須看看我們英國的專業大概在 7% 左右。看看美國的專業化程度可能在 10% 左右。本季的 Re 規模相當小。對我們來說這不是一個重要的季度。所以如果你看這兩個數字，我們就會得到 - 也許這會讓我們回到那個 9％ 的數字。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

I had a question for Doug. Just trying to unpack the brokerage organic this quarter, and I don't want to nitpick too much, but you guys were looking for 8%. And I'm just wondering, so was the entire differential just the contingents and the life sales came back as expected, and it was just totally offset by the contingents. Just hoping you can unpack that a little bit.

我有一個問題想問 Doug。只是想解讀本季經紀業務的有機成長，我不想吹毛求疵，但你們希望的是 8%。我只是想知道，整個差異是否只是或有事項，而人壽銷售額是否如預期般回升，並且是否完全被或有事項所抵消。只是希望您能稍微解釋一下這一點。

Yes, you're right. The base commissioning fees at 7.8%, that business contingents and supplementals have been running kind of consistent with that together. So the difference of the $7 million, I'd put it up in the upper 7% range somewhere pretty close to the base contingency. So you're right, you're spot on in your observation there.

是的，你說得對。基本佣金費用為 7.8%，業務或有費用和補充費用一直與此保持一致。因此，對於 700 萬美元的差額，我會把它放在 7% 的上限，相當接近基本應急資金。所以你是對的，你的觀察非常正確。

Okay. Great. And then I want to follow up just on -- I guess I was surprised the RPC stayed at 5%, just given the property price was flat versus up 4% last quarter. So I'm wondering if maybe it's mix, but I'm wondering if there's anything else from sort of like an increased purchasing or buy up dynamic that you guys are observing as the property market as the property rate moderate here?

好的。偉大的。然後我想跟進一下——我很驚訝 RPC 保持在 5%，因為房地產價格持平，而上個季度則上漲了 4%。所以我想知道這是否是混合情況，但我想知道隨著房地產市場的房地產價格適中，你們是否觀察到其他類似購買量增加或買入動態的情況？

Well, we see that across that. I think we've always said it's spent a lot time we've talked about this as rates are going up, customers opt out of certain coverages, that might be by raising deductible or reducing limits on it, sometimes they'll prop some coverages. So as rates are -- if rates are -- remember, rates are still increasing. I think it's important for everybody to realize that kind of a cross board, we're still in a rate increase in environment. They are buying more insurance and reinsurance, you're seeing that from the carriers that they're buying more. And then the customers, they are buying more coverage on it. So they'll opt in.

嗯，我們看到了這一點。我認為我們一直在說我們花了很多時間討論這個問題，因為費率正在上漲，客戶選擇退出某些保險，這可能是透過提高免賠額或降低限額來實現的，有時他們會支持一些保險。因此，如果利率是——請記住，利率仍在上升。我認為讓每個人都認識到這種跨領域合作非常重要，我們仍然處於利率上升的環境中。他們購買更多的保險和再保險，你可以從保險公司看到他們購買的更多。然後客戶會購買更多的保險。所以他們會選擇加入。

Insurance to value is a big deal too. Much more pressure on ensuring to value.

保險價值也是一件大事。確保價值的壓力更大。

Got it. And then maybe just to sneak one else in -- one other one in. Doug, I think you had said last call that the underlying brokerage business is running at like a 7% to 8% organic growth just on an underlying basis, but then the '25 range is in the 6% to 8% range. So I guess I'm wondering is that 6% just sort of conservatism? Like what sort of scenario would sort of get you guys out of that 7% to 8% range.

知道了。然後也許只是偷偷地讓另一個人進來——另一個人進來。道格，我想你上次說過，基礎經紀業務的基礎有機成長率約為 7% 至 8%，但 25 年的成長範圍在 6% 至 8% 之間。所以我想知道 6% 是否只是一種保守主義？例如什麼樣的情況可以讓你們擺脫 7% 到 8% 的範圍。

Well, listen, I think right now that we said way back in October that next year is up a lot like this year, we're kind of in that mid-7% range somewhere this year. The range around it sitting and looking out over the next 11.5 months, I guess, that it's 6% to 8% is consistent with what we've said before. So we think we'd like to stick with that. I think our team is working pretty hard as always be better than the midpoint of the range, obviously. But the margin change, we'll see at wildfires do.

嗯，聽著，我認為我們早在 10 月就說過，明年的成長率將與今年類似，今年的成長率大概在 7% 左右。我估計，在未來 11.5 個月內，其成長範圍將在 6% 到 8% 之間，這與我們之前所說的一致。因此我們認為我們會堅持這一點。我認為我們的團隊一直非常努力，顯然我們的成績總是比中間值好。但幅度的變化，我們將從野火中看到。

We'll see a casualty reserves we'll do. We're still digesting that. I will say on the wildfires, maybe you know this. I still don't know how the extra living expense have been back in the wildfire estimates for the cat loss on that. And then you can't open up the news any day without somebody taking a casualty reserve shrink.

我們將會看到我們將要做的傷亡儲備。我們仍在消化這一點。我想說，關於野火，也許你們知道這一點。我仍然不知道在野火估算中，因貓災造成的損失中，額外的生活費用是如何計算出來的。然後，每天只要打開新聞，就會看到有人在接受傷亡預備役心理醫生的治療。

So those things will cause carriers to take a really hard look at what they're doing with the rates. So within 2% is a pretty good guess as we look for the year. is it nice being in that range versus years ago when we were pretty excited about 1% or 2% organic growth.

所以這些因素會促使承運商認真檢視其費率政策。因此，就我們今年的情況來看，2% 以內是一個相當不錯的猜測。與幾年前 1% 或 2% 的有機成長率相比，現在處於這個範圍內是否感覺很好？

Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.

凱蒂·薩基斯（Katie Sakys），自主研究。

I guess my first question is thinking about the last call, I think, Doug, you had mentioned that you expect brokerage organic growth in 2025, split between the components to come from about half new business and then perhaps a quarter each to rate and exposure. Has your perspective on the components of that (inaudible) organic growth guide changed in the context of the AssuredPartners acquisition?

我的第一個問題是關於最後一次通話，道格，你曾提到，你預計 2025 年經紀業務將實現有機增長，其中各個組成部分約有一半來自新業務，然後大概有四分之一來自利率和曝光率。在 AssuredPartners 收購的背景下，您對（聽不清楚）有機成長指南各組成部分的看法是否改變了？

No. Yes. Pat summarized it pretty quickly than what we're still seeing happening right now.

不。是的。帕特對此的總結比我們現在看到的情況要快得多。

Okay. Sounds good. And then it looks like international retail brokerage growth kind of continues to cool off a little bit. How are you guys thinking about the environment for organic growth abroad this year versus what looks like perhaps a little bit more stable growth in the US.

好的。聽起來不錯。然後看起來國際零售經紀業務的成長持續有所降溫。你們如何看待今年海外有機成長的環境，相對於美國可能更穩定的成長？

Katie, I think you got to relook at that by geography. I mean there's parts of the world that are just really, really growing incredibly well. We've had our board meeting and did a deep dive into our Latin American businesses, not huge part of the whole overall enterprise, but incredibly nice growth there. And so there's -- it depends. Canada, a little bit of a slowdown this past quarter.

凱蒂，我認為你必須從地理角度重新看待這個問題。我的意思是，世界上有些地方的發展確實非常好。我們已經召開了董事會會議，深入研究了我們的拉丁美洲業務，雖然它在整個企業中所佔的比例不是很大，但那裡的成長情況非常好。所以，這取決於具體情況。加拿大上個季度的經濟略有放緩。

We talked about that. But as you look across the whole patch, there's -- it's hard to put a finger on it, which is why we try to give you a guidance in terms of the overall how it should shake out. But we definitely have some geographies that are doing extremely well and just have continued future growth that is going to be fantastic.

我們討論過這個。但當你縱觀整個補丁時，你會發現——很難說出具體是什麼，這就是為什麼我們試圖在整體上為你提供指導，告訴你應該如何解決。但我們確實有一些地區表現非常好，未來還會繼續保持驚人的成長。

Katie, one of the things I'm kind of looking at what we said this quarter versus what we said back in October, we didn't have an opportunity to update you in December. But UK retail especially still in high single digits. We said that it was 6% before. UK retail, I think we said 8% in this quarter, we're saying closer to 9%.

凱蒂，我正在研究我們本季所說的內容與 10 月所說的內容之間的區別，因為我們沒有機會在 12 月向您更新最新情況。但英國零售業的成長率仍處於個位數高位。我們之前說的是6%。英國零售業，我想我們本季的成長率是 8%，我們預期接近 9%。

And Canada may be the one that's poking its head out to you a little bit. We said it's more flattish, and now we're down one point or so. And then Australia and New Zealand, we said is about 10%, maybe in October, and we're still in the very high single digits on that. So I don't know if it's necessarily, it might be just that Canadian piece that pops out that's causing you to have that perspective.

加拿大也許會稍微向你伸出援手。我們說過它會更加平穩，現在它下降了約一個百分點。然後我們說澳洲和紐西蘭的感染率大約是 10%，可能在 10 月份，而這個數字仍然處於非常高的個位數。所以我不知道是否一定如此，可能只是那件突然出現的加拿大作品讓你有了這種觀點。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

You mentioned, obviously, accurately that there's a ton of adverse development that we're seeing in general liability. And I was wondering whether there's any direct impact when you've got, I don't know, more frequent claims or more attorney involvement in terms of how Gallagher Bassett grows revenues.

您顯然準確地提到，我們在一般責任方面看到大量不利的發展。我想知道，當您收到更頻繁的索賠或更多的律師參與時，這是否對加拉格爾巴塞特 (Gallagher Bassett) 的收入增長產生直接影響。

Well, I mean, clearly, play activity helps us more. I mean there's no question about it. But when it comes to severity, we don't participate in our clients up or down in terms of severity. We do everything we can to manage the final outcome. And we contend and we believe we have the data and analytics to prove this.

嗯，我的意思是，顯然，遊戲活動對我們更有幫助。我的意思是，這是毫無疑問的。但當涉及嚴重程度時，我們不會讓客戶在嚴重程度上上升或下降。我們盡一切努力管理最終結果。我們主張並相信我們擁有數據和分析來證明這一點。

But if you hire Gallagher Basset, your outcomes, meaning your final settlements will be superior. And that does not mean that we're taking advantage of the climate. That means that we're handling the claim is actually better than you see in the general market. So it's -- if you've got some severity out there, and that creates frequency. Frequency definitely ups Gallagher Bassett.

但如果您聘請 Gallagher Basset，您的結果（即您的最終解決方案）將會更優。但這並不意味著我們正在利用氣候。這意味著我們處理索賠的方式實際上比一般市場上的更好。所以 — — 如果你遇到了一些嚴重問題，那麼就會產生頻率。頻率肯定會提高加拉格爾巴塞特 (Gallagher Bassett)。

That's -- we get paid essentially on a per claim basis. As does economic growth because with economic growth comes more employment. And remember, most Gallagher Bassett's revenue is a good portion of them are workers' compensation driven.

也就是說，我們基本上是按照每次索賠來獲得報酬。經濟成長也是如此，因為經濟成長會帶來更多的就業機會。請記住，加拉格爾巴塞特 (Gallagher Bassett) 的大部分收入都來自工人賠償。

Yes. I think one of the things, all of those forces actually should cause Lions to look at Gallagher Bassett even more. The way we can do nurse case management, the way we have our managed care offering the way that we can understand where there are opportunities to use different physicians also understand the attorneys because we deal with them so often. So when claims get more complicated, it produces -- Gallagher Bassett actually can show more value to the customer. And I think that's the environment we're in. They're paying $12 billion, $13 billion, $14 billion of claims, and they get pretty good at that.

是的。我認為其中一個原因是，所有這些力量實際上應該讓獅子隊更加關注加拉格爾巴塞特。我們進行護士個案管理的方式、我們提供管理式醫療服務的方式使我們能夠了解在哪裡有機會使用不同的醫生，也了解律師，因為我們經常與他們打交道。因此，當索賠變得更加複雜時，它會產生——加拉格爾巴塞特實際上可以向客戶展示更多價值。我認為這就是我們所處的環境。他們支付了 120 億美元、130 億美元、140 億美元的索賠，而且他們在這方面做得相當不錯。

Remember, by and large, about $0.60 to $0.65 on every premium dollar turns into a claim. That's the function of the industry. We're seeing that, of course, in the West Coast. And so if you're going to have an impact on your costs, you better pay attention to that portion of the dollar that goes out the door in claims. Again, we think we do that at a level that's better than the competitors both TPAs and carriers.

請記住，總體而言，每 1 美元保費中約有 0.60 至 0.65 美元會變成索賠。這就是行業的作用。當然，我們在西海岸看到了這種情況。因此，如果您想要對成本產生影響，那麼您最好專注於索賠中支出的那部分資金。再次，我們認為我們做得比競爭對手（包括 TPA 和營運商）更好。

Okay. No, that's very helpful, very thorough. Switching gears, I was just looking for an update on the multiples for M&A because we've seen not only your acquisition of AssuredPartners, but a lot of the other big brokers out that have made big acquisitions and if seeks upwards, decelerates competition for tuck-ins?

好的。不，這非常有幫助，非常透徹。換個話題，我只是想了解一下併購倍數的最新情況，因為我們不僅看到您收購了 AssuredPartners，還看到許多其他大型經紀公司也進行了大規模收購，如果尋求向上發展，是否會減緩收購競爭？

Well, this, of course, is all speculation on my point. But remember, and we try to share it pretty much every quarter what we are buying at. And you're not seeing our tuck-in acquisitions and the activity that we do on our smaller deals, and we're near the tree type levels of multiples that were -- that have been running up over the years. I do think that the AssuredPartners acquisition. We have a very smart seller. I think we were an opportunistic buyer. And I definitely think there's a signal there.

嗯，當然，這都只是我個人的猜測。但請記住，我們幾乎每個季度都會嘗試分享我們的採購情況。而且您沒有看到我們的秘密收購以及我們在小額交易中開展的活動，而且我們接近多年來一直在增長的樹型倍數水平。我確實認為 AssuredPartners 的收購是合理的。我們有一個非常聰明的賣家。我認為我們是一個機會主義的買家。我確實認為那裡有信號。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯（Rob Cox）。

And I apologize for asking another question on brokerage organic, but when you consider the 6% to 8% organic growth range, could you give us some insight into what level of renewal premium change you're thinking about within that because I'm wondering if you're assuming sort of some of the acceleration that you think may be happening in the casualty market or if you don't need that to achieve the 6% to 8%.

很抱歉我又問了一次關於經紀業務有機增長的問題，但是當您考慮 6% 到 8% 的有機增長範圍時，您能否告訴我們您考慮的續保保費變化水平，因為我想知道您是否假設了意外險市場可能發生的一些加速增長，或者您是否不需要這樣做就能實現 6% 到 8% 的增長目標。

Yes. I think that estimate is not assuming that there's tailwinds produced by the fires or the casualty strengthening. We've kind of seen that in the current environment we had, like we said earlier, we think that net new business over lost it will contribute about half of that number. We think that exposure will be about 1/4 of it and rate will be about 1/4. So there's no big assumption for rate in here, nor is there a really big assumption for the exposure unit growth.

是的。我認為該估計並沒有假設火災會產生順風或傷亡增加。我們已經看到，在當前的環境下，就像我們之前說過的，我們認為淨新業務超過損失將貢獻該數字的一半左右。我們認為曝光率大約是它的1/4，速率大約是它的1/4。因此，這裡對於利率沒有大的假設，對於風險暴露單位的成長也沒有太大的假設。

I mean this is just what we're seeing in our net new business wins right now. We're showing pretty well out there in the field. And here, go back to what we said before, when there's not as much chaos in the market, we get to show our tooling capabilities shine brighter in those environments because when it's chaotic in the environment and customers are listening to big rate increases, they're just trying to get their insurance place. They're already a bit stung by the fact that rates are up. We work very hard to keep those rates down for them.

我的意思是，這正是我們現在看到的淨新業務勝利。我們在該領域表現得非常出色。這裡，回到我們之前所說的，當市場沒有那麼多混亂時，我們可以展示我們的工具能力在那些環境中更加閃耀，因為當環境混亂並且客戶聽到大幅上漲的費率時，他們只是想獲得保險。利率上升的事實已經讓他們感到有些痛苦。我們非常努力地為他們降低這些費用。

Now we'll be able to go in and show prospects just in a level playing field here when things aren't chaotic, you should be using our tools and capabilities to buy your insurance through us or let us buy your insurance for you using our capabilities. So this is an environment where we believe our new business and shine. We think our service offering is getting better and better every day. We have insights into who -- what clients might be a little shaky, let's get out and talk to them and make sure that we get the renewal put to bed soon. So I think that this is an environment where I think that our folks can shine with the tools and capabilities that they have.

現在，我們將能夠進入並向潛在客戶展示這裡公平的競爭環境，當事情不那麼混亂時，您應該使用我們的工具和能力透過我們購買保險，或者讓我們利用我們的能力為您購買保險。因此，這是一個我們相信我們的新業務並能大放異彩的環境。我們認為我們提供的服務每天都會變得越來越好。我們了解哪些客戶可能會有點不確定，讓我們出去和他們談談，並確保我們能盡快完成續約。所以我認為，在這樣的環境中，我們的員工可以充分利用他們所擁有的工具和能力，大放異彩。

I would have killed in the past, as Doug alluded to, when we were talking about up one, up to for premium rate growth as an environment, that would be nirvana 10 years ago. So I think it's a very strong place to be. Remember, our job is to mitigate that for our clients. But it's a great place for us to show exactly what Doug was saying, which is our capabilities, in particular, in the areas of data and analytics, which I want to remind the listeners you don't get a chance to listen to the smaller brokers that we're competing with on a quarterly basis. We're pulling away from them more and more with our capabilities.

正如道格所提到的那樣，當我們談論上漲一倍、上漲至保費增長的環境時，我過去可能會不惜一切代價，那將是 10 年前的涅槃。所以我認為這是一個非常強大的地方。請記住，我們的工作是幫助客戶減輕這種影響。但這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，可以準確地展示道格所說的內容，即我們的能力，特別是在數據和分析領域的能力，我想提醒聽眾，你們沒有機會聽取我們按季度競爭的小型經紀商的意見。我們的能力正逐漸拉開與他們的距離。

And these -- and clients, I'm talking middle market clients very much appreciate the ability to sit and talk with them about people like you buy this or you should have this type of limit because in our data, we see losses at this size. That capability is just getting -- it's getting more and more attention by the buying community, and it's differentiating us every single day to a greater level.

而這些—客戶，我指的是中端市場客戶，非常欣賞能夠坐下來與他們談論諸如你買這個或你應該有這種限制之類的事情，因為在我們的數據中，我們看到了這種規模的損失。這種能力正日益受到購買群體的關注，並且每天都在將我們的差異化推向更高的水平。

That makes sense. Pivoting to reinsurance brokerage, I just wanted to ask because I know you're our growth has been a good bit stronger than your two largest competitors in the reinsurance brokerage space for a number of years now. And Gallagher has a lower revenue base, but it doesn't seem like that would be the only driver of the outperformance. So I was hoping you could remind us what's driving Gallagher's ability to deliver what's been more like double-digit organic growth in reinsurance?

這很有道理。轉向再保險經紀，我只是想問一下，因為我知道多年來，我們的成長一直比再保險經紀領域的兩個最大競爭對手強勁得多。雖然加拉格爾的收入基礎較低，但這似乎並不是其優異表現的唯一驅動力。所以我希望您能提醒我們，是什麼推動了加拉格爾在再保險領域實現兩位數的有機成長？

Well, I think that it's just blocking and tackling. I think one of the things that we found there is it's a great sales team. They're backed up by terrific analytics, incredible capabilities in consulting on capital management, and there's no doubt being part of Gallagher has offered them some additional opportunities.

嗯，我認為這只是阻擋和鏟球。我認為我們發現的其中一件事是，它擁有一支優秀的銷售團隊。他們擁有出色的分析能力和令人難以置信的資本管理諮詢能力，毫無疑問，加入加拉格爾為他們提供了一些額外的機會。

Yes. I think that as they team up with our wholesalers, our program folks and our retailers. They get to see firsthand what's going on in the retail on the street. I think that helps them provide better insights to their -- the primary carriers. And I think that we're doing a terrific job of making them an integrated part of us, not just a unit within the holding company structure.

是的。我認為他們與我們的批發商、專案人員和零售商合作。他們可以親眼目睹街頭零售店的現況。我認為這有助於他們為主要營運商提供更好的見解。我認為，我們做得非常出色，使他們成為我們自身不可分割的一部分，而不僅僅是控股公司結構內的一個部門。

Great. My follow-up is on reinsurance as well, just the strong results. Just curious, maybe on mix, on reinsurance, do you potentially have a greater mix towards casualty or specialty Europe focused then that could be helping kind of the outlook given casualty pricing is accelerating?

偉大的。我對再保險的後續關注也很好，結果也很好。只是好奇，也許在組合上，在再保險上，您是否有可能將更多的組合集中在意外險或歐洲專業險上，那麼鑑於意外險定價正在加速，這可能會對前景有所幫助？

Yes. We have a terrific casualty book of business. North American Casualty is a big part of our US business, but we're probably a little underweighted on property maybe versus the others. So I think, yes, it's probably more casualty I don't exactly understand their book of business, but I think that what our perception is that we're under underweight on property.

是的。我們擁有大量業務損失記錄。北美傷亡險是我們美國業務的重要組成部分，但與其他業務相比，我們在財產險方面的持股比例可能略低。所以我認為，是的，這可能更具偶然性，我並不完全了解他們的業務，但我認為我們的看法是，我們在房地產方面的投資不足。

Well, and also where is the pain right now, if it's a reinsurance buyer? It's casualty. I mean as we've talked about in these calls is and there's no question about it. That's the area that's got some pain, and our team is really, really good at that.

那麼，如果是再保險購買者，那麼現在的痛苦又在哪裡呢？這是傷亡。我的意思是，正如我們在這些電話中討論的那樣，這是毫無疑問的。這就是存在著痛點的領域，而我們的團隊在這方面確實非常擅長。

Got it. Maybe since it's not 6:15, I'll sneak one last one in. Just curious, health inflation for employers, at least at some of the stats we've seen, it's expected to rise '25 versus '24. Maybe you disagree with that. But does that provide any uplift to organic for employee benefits? Or I know there's a lot of building blocks for employee benefits --

知道了。也許因為現在還不到 6:15，所以我會偷偷地再說最後一句。只是好奇，對於雇主來說，至少從我們看到的一些統計數據來看，預計 2025 年的健康通膨將比 2024 年上升。或許您不同意這一點。但這是否會對員工福利產生任何影響呢？或者我知道員工福利有很多組成部分--

Every time we get -- we're one of the -- we are clearly a leader in our capabilities to consult manage and place health and welfare. And it's a huge problem for employers. And it's going up as it seems to never stop doing.

每次我們 — — 我們是其中之一 — — 我們在諮詢、管理和提供健康和福利方面的能力顯然處於領先地位。這對雇主來說是一個巨大的問題。而且它還在不斷上升，似乎永遠沒有停止的跡象。

And so there's all kinds of tools that you need to have in your toolbox to handle that. And we're very, very good at that. And by the way, we're extremely good at it in the commercial middle market, where I think there's maybe not as much competition, frankly.

所以，你的工具箱裡需要有各式各樣的工具來處理這個問題。我們在這方面非常非常擅長。順便說一句，我們在商業中端市場表現非常出色，坦白說，我認為這個市場的競爭可能沒有那麼激烈。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特 (Alex Scott)。

This is Justin on for Alex. Just kind of going back into the brokerage segment in the commercial middle market. Just wanted to ask, I understand it seems like 90% of the time, you guys are competing against independent brokers. I was just curious in light of sort of the large-scale acquisitions that's been taking place, whether or not you see sort of this 90% number to dwindle over time? And just when we think about '25 and ahead --

這是賈斯汀 (Justin) 為亞歷克斯 (Alex) 表演的。就像回到商業中端市場的經紀領域。只是想問一下，我知道似乎 90% 的時間你們都在與獨立經紀人競爭。我只是好奇，鑑於已經發生的大規模收購，您是否認為這個 90% 的數字會隨著時間的推移而減少？當我們想到 25 年及未來時--

The AssuredPartners people are competing with those same independents in communities that we're not in today, which is only going to increase when you take a look at our [at bats] our number of at bats are going to go up substantially because of AssuredPartners and 100% of those at bats, that's not true. 95% of those at bats are going to be against smaller players.

AssuredPartners 的員工正在我們今天尚未進入的社區中與那些獨立的員工競爭，這種競爭只會增加，當你看看我們的 [擊球] 時，我們的擊球次數將因為 AssuredPartners 而大幅增加，而且 100% 的擊球，事實並非如此。 95% 的擊球對手都是身材較小的球員。

Yes. I think the fragmented market of those 30,000 agents and brokers, and those are companies not necessarily those with a brokerage license. So we're competing against the other 29,950 brokers that are out there. So I mean, AssuredPartners will be absolutely there. It does help us go after those accounts that are in cities that we're not in. So this is -- we think it's a great one plus one can equal more than two, for sure.

是的。我認為這 30,000 名代理商和經紀人的市場是分散的，而且這些公司不一定是擁有經紀執照的公司。所以我們正在與其他 29,950 名經紀人競爭。所以我的意思是，AssuredPartners 絕對會在那裡。它確實幫助我們追蹤那些位於我們不在的城市的帳戶。所以這是 — — 我們認為這是一個很好的結果，一加一肯定可以大於二。

Thanks, Rob. I think we're ready to wrap up here, and I just have a quick comment, and that is thank you again for joining us this afternoon. As you all know, now we had a great fourth quarter to finish an excellent year of financial performance. A huge thank you goes out from this table to our 56,000 colleagues around the globe, it's your creativity, expertise and unwavering client focus that continue to set us apart. We look forward to speaking with the investment (inaudible) at our mid-March IR Day and thank you all for being with us this evening.

謝謝，羅布。我想我們已經準備好結束了，我只想做一個簡短的評論，再次感謝您今天下午加入我們。眾所周知，我們在第四季表現優異，為年度財務表現畫上了圓滿的句號。在此，我們向全球 56,000 名同事致以誠摯的謝意，正是你們的創造力、專業知識和堅定不移的客戶關注使我們與眾不同。我們期待在三月中旬的 IR Day 與投資者（聽不清楚）進行交談，並感謝大家今晚與我們在一起。

This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路了。