Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call.

本次電話會議中的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的資訊或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中有關前瞻性陳述和風險因素部分的資訊。

In addition, for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

此外，有關本次電話會議討論的非公認會計準則指標的對帳以及有關這些指標的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益報告和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很高興介紹 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 的董事長兼執行長 J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.。加拉格爾先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter '25 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO; and other members of our management team. We had a fantastic first quarter. For our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 14% growth in revenue, 9% organic growth, reported net earnings margin of 23%, adjusted EBITDAC margin of 41.1%, up 338 basis points year-over-year, adjusted EBITDAC growth of 26%, our 20th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, GAAP earnings per share of $3.29 and adjusted earnings per share of $4.16. Another excellent quarter by the team.

謝謝。下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的是我們的財務長 Doug Howell；以及我們管理團隊的其他成員。我們的第一季表現非常出色。就我們的經紀和風險管理部門而言，我們的收入增長了 14%，有機增長了 9%，報告淨利潤率為 23%，調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率增長了 41.1%，同比增長 338 個基點，調整後的 EBITDAC 增長了 26%，這是我們連續第 20 個季度實現每股收益 3.AP 每股收益為 3. 4.16 美元。球隊又度過了一個出色的季度。

Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 16%. Organic growth was 9.5%, which included about 1 point of favorable timing. Even without the timing impact, all-in organic was right in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 359 basis points to 43.4%, with underlying margins up [1 full percentage point]. Doug will unpack this in his comments.

從經紀業務部門開始，按部門劃分結果。報告的收入增長了16%。有機成長率為 9.5%，其中包括約 1 個百分點的有利時機。即使沒有時間影響，全有機成長也完全符合我們的預期。調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大 359 個基點至 43.4%，基礎利潤率上升[整整1個百分點]。道格將在他的評論中解釋這一點。

Let me provide you with some insights behind our Brokerage segment organic. Within our retail P/C operations, we delivered 5% organic overall. US organic was north of 5%, while our international operations, primarily in the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, were closer to 4%. Our global employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of more than 7%.

讓我為您提供一些有關我們經紀業務部門有機發展的見解。在我們的零售 P/C 業務中，我們整體實現了 5% 的有機成長。美國的有機成長率超過 5%，而我們的國際業務（主要在英國、加拿大、澳洲和紐西蘭）的有機成長率接近 4%。我們的全球員工福利經紀和諮詢業務有機成長率超過 7%。

Shifting to our reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses, in total, organic of 13%. This includes 20% organic from Gallagher Re and 8% organic from our wholesale and specialty businesses. So we continue to report strong growth across retail P/C, wholesale, reinsurance, and benefits.

轉向我們的再保險、批發和專業業務，整體有機成長 13%。其中包括來自 Gallagher Re 的 20% 有機產品和來自我們的批發和專業業務的 8% 有機產品。因此，我們繼續報告零售財產保險、批發、再保險和福利方面的強勁增長。

Next, let me provide some thoughts on the P/C insurance pricing environment. Starting with the primary insurance market. Overall, the global P/C insurance market continues to behave rationally with carriers looking to grow in lines and geographies where there's an acceptable return, and seeking rate increases where it's needed to generate an appropriate underwriting profit.

接下來，我想就財產險定價環境談談一些看法。從初級保險市場開始。總體而言，全球財產/意外保險市場繼續保持理性，保險公司尋求在能夠獲得可接受回報的險種和地區實現增長，並在需要時尋求提高費率，以產生適當的承保利潤。

Breaking down first quarter global renewal premium changes by product line, we saw the following: property down 2%, D&O down 3%, workers' comp up 5%, personal lines up 8%, casualty lines up 8% overall, including general liability up 5%, commercial auto up 6%, and umbrella up 11%.

依產品線細分第一季全球續保保費變化，我們發現：財產險下降 2%，董事及高階主管責任險下降 3%，工傷賠償險上漲 5%，個人險上漲 8%，意外險總體上漲 8%，其中一般責任險上漲 5%，商業車險上漲 6%，綜合險上漲 11%。

Breaking down renewal premiums by client size, we continue to see a divergence between small to midsized accounts and large accounts. For small to midsized accounts, which we define as accounts generating less than $100,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were up 5%. For large accounts or clients generating more than $100,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were up 1%.

按客戶規模細分續保保費，我們仍然看到中小型帳戶和大型帳戶之間存在差異。對於小型到中型帳戶（我們將其定義為收入低於 100,000 美元的帳戶），續保保費上漲了 5%。對於大帳戶或收入超過 10 萬美元的客戶，續保保費上漲了 1%。

All that said, pricing is ultimately driven by client loss experience. Good accounts are getting some premium relief in certain lines. However, accounts with poor experience are seeing greater increases. Having a trusted adviser like Gallagher can help businesses navigate a complex insurance and economic backdrop by finding the best coverage for our clients while mitigating price increases, today's environment is the ideal market for us to show our expertise, product knowledge, and our data-driven capabilities.

儘管如此，定價最終還是取決於客戶損失經驗。優質客戶在某些方面可獲得一些保費減免。然而，經驗較差的帳戶增幅更大。擁有像加拉格爾這樣值得信賴的顧問可以幫助企業應對複雜的保險和經濟背景，為我們的客戶找到最佳的保險範圍，同時降低價格上漲，當今的環境是我們展示專業知識、產品知識和數據驅動能力的理想市場。

Let me move to the reinsurance market. First quarter dynamics, which is mostly influenced by January 1 renewals, reflected an environment that generally favored reinsurance buyers. Overall, reinsurers were able to meet increased client demand with sufficient capacity, while remaining disciplined on terms. The Gallagher Re team shined with excellent retention and some fantastic new business wins.

讓我談談再保險市場。第一季的動態主要受到 1 月 1 日續保的影響，反映出整體上有利於再保險購買者的環境。整體而言，再保險公司能夠以足夠的容量滿足不斷增長的客戶需求，同時保持條款的紀律性。Gallagher Re 團隊憑藉出色的保留率和一些出色的新業務勝利而大放異彩。

April renewals experienced similar trading conditions as earlier in the year, and as expected, saw a bit more downward pricing pressure. The January wildfire losses and continued casualty reserve increases remain a focus for the industry. But neither caused much upward movement in pricing given the large proportion of Japanese buyers in April. With that said, US severe convective storm season is here, which then leads us to US wind season, time will tell how the year plays out. Regardless, Gallagher Re should continue to excel in this environment.

四月續約的交易條件與今年早些時候類似，並且正如預期的那樣，價格下行壓力略有增加。一月份的野火損失和持續增加的傷亡儲備仍然是業界關注的焦點。但考慮到 4 月日本買家佔比較大，這兩種情況均未導致價格大幅上漲。話雖如此，美國強對流風暴季節已經到來，這將帶我們進入美國風季，時間將告訴我們今年的情況如何。無論如何，Gallagher Re 應該會繼續在這種環境下表現出色。

Moving to some comments on our customers' business activity. During the first quarter, our daily revenue indications from audits, endorsements, and cancellations continued to be a net positive. While the upward revenue adjustments are not quite as high as last year, we continue to see solid client business activity and no signs of a meaningful global economic slowdown.

轉向對我們客戶的業務活動的一些評論。在第一季度，我們來自審計、背書和取消的每日收入指標繼續為淨正值。雖然營收上調幅度不如去年那麼大，但我們仍然看到客戶業務活動穩健，並且沒有出現全球經濟明顯放緩的跡象。

Our daily revenue indications through the end of April are not showing any significant changes in our customers' business activity from the prospect of tariffs. Our daily indications have historically given us some early insights into our clients' business activity, so we will continue to watch these very carefully.

截至四月底，我們的每日收入指標並未顯示客戶的業務活動因關稅前景而發生任何重大變化。從歷史上看，我們的每日指標讓我們對客戶的業務活動有了一些早期的了解，因此我們將繼續密切關注這些指標。

We are also closely watching the US labor market. And there continues to be a strong demand for new workers. The number of open jobs in the US stood at more than 7 million, still at a level that is well above the number of unemployed people looking for work. We've also seen recent health insurance carrier results show continued increases in the utilization and cost of health care.

我們也密切關注美國勞動市場。對新工人的需求持續強勁。美國空缺職位數量超過700萬，仍遠高於正在找工作的失業人數。我們也看到，最近的健康保險公司結果顯示，醫療保健的使用率和成本持續上升。

With these two trends as the backdrop, we are seeing more and more employers looking for ways to grow their workforce and control their benefit costs. Our experts can provide creative solutions to solve these challenges.

在這兩種趨勢的背景下，我們看到越來越多的雇主正在尋找擴大員工和控制福利成本的方法。我們的專家可以提供創造性的解決方案來解決這些挑戰。

Regardless of market and economic conditions, I believe we are well positioned to compete and to win. From our niche expertise, outstanding service or extensive data and analytics offerings, we have the resources and know-how to service any account of any size, of any complexity anywhere around the globe. So with a fantastic first quarter behind us, we continue to see full year '25 brokerage segment organic in the 6% to 8% range.

無論市場和經濟狀況如何，我相信我們都有能力競爭並取得勝利。憑藉我們的專業知識、卓越的服務或廣泛的數據和分析產品，我們擁有資源和專業知識，可以為全球任何地方任何規模、任何複雜程度的帳戶提供服務。因此，在第一季取得優異成績之後，我們預計 25 年全年經紀業務的有機成長率將保持在 6% 至 8% 之間。

Moving on to our risk management segment, Gallagher Bassett. First quarter revenue growth was 6%, including organic of about 4%. We continue to see excellent client retention and strong new business production. However, sold new business within the risk management segment typically takes longer to materialize into revenue.

接下來是我們的風險管理部分，加拉格爾巴塞特 (Gallagher Bassett)。第一季營收成長 6%，其中有機成長約 4%。我們繼續看到出色的客戶保留率和強勁的新業務產出。然而，風險管理部門出售的新業務通常需要更長時間才能實現收入。

As these new client contracts incept and begin to generate revenue in the coming months, we are confident we will see stronger revenue growth in the second half of the year. Adjusted EBITDAC margin was 20.5%, in line with our March expectations. Looking ahead, we still see full year '25 organic in that 6% to 8% range and margins around 20.5%.

隨著這些新客戶合約在未來幾個月內開始產生收入，我們有信心在今年下半年看到更強勁的收入成長。調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 20.5%，符合我們 3 月的預期。展望未來，我們仍預期 25 年全年有機成長率將在 6% 至 8% 之間，利潤率將在 20.5% 左右。

Shifting to mergers and acquisitions. During the first quarter, we completed 11 new tuck-in mergers, representing around $100 million of estimated annualized revenue. We also announced the acquisition of Woodruff Sawyer during the quarter and completed that in early April. That means through today, we already are at $400 million of acquired revenue. For those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the Gallagher family of professionals.

轉向併購。第一季度，我們完成了 11 項新的內部合併，預計年收入約為 1 億美元。我們也在本季宣布收購 Woodruff Sawyer，並於 4 月初完成收購。這意味著到今天為止，我們的收入已經達到了 4 億美元。對於新加入的合作夥伴，我謹向加拉格爾專業大家庭表示最熱烈的歡迎。

As for the pending AssuredPartners acquisition, not much to update relative to our March IR Day comments. We are working to respond to the second request. And we still expect to close in the second half of 2025.

至於即將進行的 AssuredPartners 收購，與我們 3 月的 IR Day 評論相比，沒有太多更新。我們正在努力回應第二個請求。我們仍預計在 2025 年下半年完成。

Looking at our pipeline, we have more than 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing north of $450 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher.

從我們的管道來看，我們已經簽署或正在準備 40 多份條款清單，年收入超過 4.5 億美元。好的公司總是有選擇的，如果他們選擇與加拉格爾合作，那就太好了。

I'll conclude with some comments about our bedrock Gallagher culture. During our Global Sales Award meeting in early March, our unique Gallagher culture was on full display. It was inspiring to watch the interactions among thousands of our colleagues across geographies, business units and product lines. I came away even more convinced that our greatest asset is our people and our biggest differentiator is our culture. And that is the Gallagher way.

最後，我想就我們基石加拉格爾文化發表一些評論。在三月初舉行的全球銷售獎頒獎會議上，我們獨特的加拉格爾文化得到了充分展現。看到來自不同地區、不同業務部門和不同產品線的數千名同事之間的互動，真是令人鼓舞。我更確信，我們最大的資產是我們的人民，我們最大的差異化是我們的文化。這就是加拉格爾的方式。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

好的。我現在就停下來，把話題交給 Doug。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today I'll walk you through our earnings release, starting with some comments on first quarter organic growth and margins by segment, including how we are seeing these shape up for the full year '25. Next, I'll move to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our IR website and walk you through our typical modeling helpers. And then I'll conclude my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M&A and capital management.

謝謝，帕特，大家好。今天，我將向大家介紹我們的收益報告，首先對第一季各部門的有機成長和利潤率進行一些評論，包括我們對 25 年全年的展望。接下來，我將轉到我們在 IR 網站上發布的 CFO 評論文件，並向您介紹我們典型的建模助手。然後，我將以對現金、併購和資本管理的常規評論來結束我準備好的演講。

Okay. Let's flip to page 2 of the earnings release. Headline Brokerage segment organic growth of 9.5% was a great quarter and it helps our -- and it helps bolster our view that full year organic will be in that 6% to 8% range. And that range is in line with what we've been saying all year.

好的。讓我們翻到收益報告的第二頁。經紀業務板塊有機成長率達到 9.5%，這是一個出色的季度，它有助於我們——也有助於支持我們的觀點，即全年有機成長率將達到 6% 至 8% 的範圍內。這個範圍與我們全年所說的一致。

As Pat mentioned, first quarter did have some favorable timing of about 1 point. So looking forward, we see some favorable timing again in the second quarter, but not to the same magnitude. And then all of the first half timing will reverse itself in the third and fourth quarters with no impact on full year '25.

正如帕特所提到的，第一季確實有一些大約 1 分的有利時機。因此展望未來，我們在第二季再次看到一些有利時機，但幅度不會相同。然後，上半年的所有時間表將在第三季和第四季逆轉，但不會對 25 年全年產生影響。

So as we look through to the rest of the year, second quarter might be more like 6% to 7%. Then we will see the timing flip in the third and fourth quarters might mean third and fourth quarter organic of about 5% each, causes low noise across the quarters, but with a 9.5% first quarter, the math gets us back to a full year '25 organic in that 6% to 8% range. That would be a terrific year.

因此，展望今年剩餘時間，第二季的成長率可能更像是 6% 到 7%。然後我們將看到第三季和第四季的時間轉換，這可能意味著第三季和第四季的有機成長率分別為 5% 左右，導致各季度的噪音較低，但考慮到第一季的 9.5%，計算結果讓我們回到 25 年全年的有機成長率在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內。那將會是極好的一年。

So flipping now to page 4 of the earnings release, to the brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. First quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 43.4%, up 359 basis points year-over-year and above our March IR Day expectations. So let me walk you through a bridge from last year as we typically do.

現在翻到收益報告的第 4 頁，查看經紀部門調整後的 EBITDAC 表。第一季調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 43.4%，較去年同期成長 359 個基點，高於我們 3 月投資者關係日的預期。因此，讓我像往常一樣帶您回顧去年發生的一件事。

First, if we pull out last year's 2024 first quarter earnings release, you'll see we reported back then adjusted EBITDAC margin of 39.9%. But now I'm using current period FX rates, that would have been 39.8%. Then organic growth of 9.5% gave us about 120 basis points of expansion this quarter. The roll-in impact of M&A and lower interest rates each used about 10 basis points of margin this quarter.

首先，如果我們拿出去年 2024 年第一季的收益報告，您會看到我們當時報告的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 39.9%。但現在我使用當期的外匯匯率，這個數字應該是 39.8%。9.5% 的有機成長率使我們本季實現了約 120 個基點的成長。本季度，併購和較低利率的滾動影響分別消耗了約 10 個基點的保證金。

Finally, as the footnote at the bottom of that table notes, the impact of interest income from the cash that we're holding for the AssuredPartners acquisition adds us about 260 basis points of margin this quarter. Follow that bridge and it will get you to first quarter 2025 margin of 43.4%. That is really, really great work by the team.

最後，正如該表底部的腳註所述，我們為收購 AssuredPartners 而持有的現金所產生的利息收入使我們本季的利潤率增加了約 260 個基點。沿著這座橋走下去，2025 年第一季的利潤率將達到 43.4%。這確實是團隊的偉大工作。

As for second quarter headline margin expansion, it's still looking like we will be pushing around 300 basis points. Again driven by strong underlying margin expansion of approximately 60 to 80 basis points, assuming organic in that 6% to 7% range and also interest income related to the cash we're holding for AP, plus a small offset by the roll-in of M&A and lower interest rates.

至於第二季整體利潤率擴張，看起來我們仍將推動 300 個基點左右。再次受到約 60 至 80 個基點的強勁基礎利潤率擴張的推動，假設有機增長率在 6% 至 7% 的範圍內，以及與我們為 AP 持有的現金相關的利息收入，再加上併購的滾動和較低利率的小幅抵消。

Looking out towards the third quarter, we would still expect underlying margin expansion, and then we'll also have the impact of investment income on the funds we're holding for AP. So in total, think -- we're thinking expansion could be 250 to 280 basis points. This, of course, would change if we get AP closed before September 30.

展望第三季度，我們仍然預計基礎利潤率將擴大，投資收益也會對我們為 AP 持有的資金產生影響。所以總的來說，我們認為擴張幅度可能達到 250 到 280 個基點。當然，如果我們在 9 月 30 日之前關閉 AP，情況就會改變。

As for fourth quarter, we would hope we'd have AP closed, so we would have underlying margin expansion still, but lose the extra investment income, yet have AP's fourth quarter results in our books. The punch line here is there's nothing we're seeing that causes us to change how we view underlying margin expansion potential. We believe at organic greater than 4%, we should see some underlying margin expansion. At 6% organic, maybe 60 basis points of expansion. And at 8% organic, perhaps around 100 basis points of expansion. So again, there's no news here. We still believe we are positioned to expand underlying full year margins by about 60 to 100 basis points.

至於第四季度，我們希望能夠關閉 AP，這樣我們仍然可以實現基礎利潤率的擴大，但會失去額外的投資收入，同時 AP 第四季度的業績仍會保留在我們的帳簿上。這裡的妙處在於，我們所看到的一切都沒有讓我們改變對潛在利潤擴張潛力的看法。我們相信，當有機成長率超過 4% 時，我們應該會看到一些潛在的利潤率擴張。有機成長率達 6%，可能擴張 60 個基點。而有機成長率達到 8% 的話，擴張幅度大概在 100 個基點左右。所以，這裡再說一遍，沒有新聞。我們仍然相信，我們有能力將全年基本利潤率提高約 60 至 100 個基點。

Sticking on page 4. Risk management segment organic was 3.9%. That's a bit below our 5% expectation due to lower new business revenue. As Pat mentioned, we expect this to improve in the second half of the year as we have already sold new contracts, but these have yet to start generating revenue. So we see organic moving back towards 6% to 8% throughout the year. Adjusted EBITDAC margin of 20.5% was in line with our March IR Day expectations. And looking forward, we still see full year margins again around 20.5%.

貼在第 4 頁。風險管理部門有機成長率為3.9%。由於新業務收入較低，這略低於我們 5% 的預期。正如帕特所提到的，我們預計這種情況會在下半年有所改善，因為我們已經出售了新合同，但這些合約尚未開始產生收入。因此，我們預計全年有機成長率將回升至 6% 至 8%。調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 20.5%，符合我們 3 月份投資者關係日的預期。展望未來，我們仍預期全年利潤率將在 20.5% 左右。

Turning now to page 6 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. For the adjusted interest in banking, clean energy and acquisition lines, all were very close to our March IR day expectations. The corporate line was better than our March expectations due to some expense timing, a few favorable tax items, including the tax benefit from stock-based compensation, somewhat offset by an unrealized FX remeasurement loss.

現在翻到財報的第 6 頁和公司部門快速表。對於銀行、清潔能源和收購線的調整後利息，都非常接近我們三月投資人關係日的預期。由於一些費用時機、一些有利的稅收項目（包括股票薪酬的稅收優惠），公司線表現好於我們 3 月份的預期，但未實現的外匯重估損失在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

So now let's move from the earnings release to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our website. First, as an overall statement, please read the headers and footnotes carefully on how these numbers in this document include or exclude the impact of AssuredPartners.

現在讓我們從收益報告轉到我們在網站上發布的財務長評論文件。首先，作為總體聲明，請仔細閱讀頁首和腳註，以了解本文檔中的這些數字如何包含或排除 AssuredPartners 的影響。

That said, let's flip to page 3 and our modeling helpers across the board. First quarter '25 actual numbers were fairly close to what we provided back in March. One thing to call out in our '25 outlook are changes from FX for both the Brokerage and risk management segments. With the dollar weakening since mid-March, we have provided updated estimates for revenue and EPS impacts for the remainder of the year. Just take a look at the disclosures and refine your models.

話雖如此，讓我們翻到第 3 頁，看看我們全面的建模助手。2025 年第一季的實際數字與我們 3 月提供的數字相當接近。在我們的 25 年展望中，需要指出的一點是經紀和風險管理部門的外匯變化。隨著美元自三月中旬以來走弱，我們對今年剩餘時間的收入和每股盈餘影響提供了更新的估計。只需查看披露內容並改進您的模型。

Turning now to page 4 and the corporate segment outlook for '25. Within the corporate line of the corporate segment, like I mentioned earlier, we had some favorable expense timing in the first quarter. So you'll see some of that comes back over the rest of the year. We've increased after-tax expense by about $1 million per quarter for the remainder of '25. However, the rest of our outlook for the corporate segment is unchanged from 6 weeks ago.

現在翻到第 4 頁，了解 25 年企業部門的展望。正如我之前提到的，在企業部門的企業線內，我們在第一季有一些有利的支出時機。因此，您會看到其中一些在今年剩餘時間內會再次出現。在 2025 年剩餘時間內，我們每季的稅後支出增加了約 100 萬美元。不過，我們對企業部門其餘部分的展望與六週前相比並沒有改變。

Flipping to page 5 to our tax credit carryovers. This is a reminder page, as of March 31, we have about $710 million of tax credits. We continue to expect additional cash flow of more than $180 million this year and even more in '26 and later years. And don't forget, this benefit will show up in our cash flow statement rather than our P&L. So it's still a nice sweetener to fund a future M&A.

翻到第 5 頁查看我們的稅收抵免結轉。這是一個提醒頁面，截至 3 月 31 日，我們有大約 7.1 億美元的稅收抵免。我們預計今年的額外現金流將超過 1.8 億美元，26 年及以後的現金流將更多。別忘了，這項收益將顯示在我們的現金流量表而不是損益表中。因此，這對於資助未來的併購來說仍然是一個不錯的選擇。

Turning now to page 6, the investment income table. We've updated our forecast to reflect current FX rates and changes in fiduciary cash balances. And you'll see here that we're still assuming two 25 basis point rate cuts during '25. You'll also see that we provided a separate line to show our estimates of interest income associated with the funds that we're holding to pay for AssuredPartners.

現在翻到第 6 頁，投資損益表。我們已更新預測，以反映當前外匯匯率和信託現金餘額的變化。您會發現，我們仍然假設 25 年期間將有兩次 25 個基點的降息。您還會看到，我們提供了單獨的一行來顯示與支付給 AssuredPartners 的資金相關的利息收入估計。

Shifting down on that page of the rollover revenue table. First quarter '25 column subtotal is around $80 million and $92 million before divestitures. These numbers are consistent with our March IR day expectations. Looking forward, the pinkish columns to the right include estimated revenues for brokerage M&A closed through yesterday. And just a reminder, you'll make a pick -- you'll need to make a pick for future M&A.

將滾動收入表的該頁面向下移動。25 年第一季的分類匯總約為 8,000 萬美元，資產剝離前為 9,200 萬美元。這些數字與我們三月 IR 日的預期一致。展望未來，右側的粉紅色長條圖包括截至昨天完成的經紀併購交易的預期收入。提醒一下，您需要做出選擇—您需要為未來的併購做出選擇。

Then below that table, we have a separate section for AssuredPartners. We show you what we expect for monthly pro forma revenues in purple. And then finally, continuing down on the page, you'll see the Risk Management segment rollover revenues too.

然後在表格下方，我們為 AssuredPartners 設立了一個單獨的部分。我們用紫色表示我們對每月預期收入的預期。最後，繼續往下看，您還會看到風險管理部門的展期收入。

So moving to cash, capital management and M&A funding. We had no outstanding borrowings on our line of credit at March 31. And you might have seen that in early April, we amended our credit agreement. We extended the maturity date to April of 2030 and also increased our borrowing capacity from $1.7 billion to $2.5 billion.

因此轉向現金、資本管理和併購融資。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的信用額度內沒有未償還借款。您可能已經看到，我們在四月初修改了信用協議。我們將到期日延長至 2030 年 4 月，並將借款能力從 17 億美元提高至 25 億美元。

Our current cash position, potential borrowing capacity and strong expected free cash flow position us well for our pipeline of M&A opportunities. So even after the $13.5 billion for Assured paying for Woodruff and paying for the Willis Re earn-out, and after the other 11 deals we've already done through Q1, we still have over $2 billion of M&A capacity here in '25 and another $5 billion of capacity in '26 before using any stock. So our M&A strategy has a tremendous runway.

我們目前的現金狀況、潛在的借貸能力和強勁的預期自由現金流使我們在併購機會方面處於有利地位。因此，即使在 Assured 支付了 135 億美元收購 Woodruff 和 Willis Re 的收益支付之後，以及在第一季我們已經完成的另外 11 筆交易之後，在使用任何股票之前，我們在 25 年仍然擁有超過 20 億美元的併購能力，在 26 年還有 50 億美元的併購能力。因此，我們的併購策略有著巨大的發展空間。

So another excellent quarter in the books. As we look ahead, we see strong organic growth, a terrific M&A pipeline. We continue to see opportunities to improve our productivity and quality. And as Pat said, we have a winning culture. So it looks like we're well on track for another great year.

這又是一個出色的季度。展望未來，我們看到強勁的有機成長和極佳的併購管道。我們不斷看到提高生產力和品質的機會。正如帕特所說，我們擁有一種成功的文化。看起來我們正順利地迎接又一個偉大的一年。

Back to you, Pat.

回到你身邊，帕特。

Thanks, Doug. Operator, I think we're ready to go to questions and answers.

謝謝，道格。接線員，我想我們已經準備好進入問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Elise Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Elise Greenspan。

Hi, thanks. Good evening. My first question, I wanted to start with the pretty impressive 20% growth that you guys saw in reinsurance. Can you just try to break that down between what's coming from pricing, retention, new demand? And then if you could give us a sense like if it's new or if it's business that you're taking from peers? Because it's a pretty strong number.

你好，謝謝。晚安.我的第一個問題，我想從你們在再保險領域看到的令人印象深刻的 20% 的成長開始。您能否嘗試將其分解為定價、保留和新需求三個面向？然後您能否讓我們了解一下這是新的業務還是您從同行那裡搶來的業務？因為這是一個相當強勁的數字。

Well, thanks, Elyse. And let me try to break down some of the 20% organic. First, the reinsurance folks, they're just on fire. They had a great quarter and a lot of it came with the January 1 renewals. So let me break down three pieces. Our new business spread was responsible for more than half the organic this quarter. In fact, we had about 15 new client wins with more than $1 million each. These are big chunky deals. This is not similar to what we do on the retail side.

好吧，謝謝你，伊莉絲。讓我試著分解這 20% 的有機物。首先，再保險人員非常忙碌。他們本季表現優異，其中很大一部分歸功於 1 月 1 日的續約。讓我分解成三個部分。我們的新業務涵蓋了本季一半以上的有機業務。事實上，我們贏得了約 15 位新客戶，每位客戶的價值都超過 100 萬美元。這些都是大額交易。這與我們在零售方面所做的並不相似。

Increased renewal premiums from carrier growth was another 5% or so, inflation, people buying more cover. As you see some rates come down, people have some room for additional cover, et cetera. And the remainder was some favorable timing. We have now better insights into it. And as I noted, it will reverse itself in the latter half of the year.

由於承運商的成長、通貨膨脹、人們購買更多保險，續保費也增加了 5% 左右。正如您所看到的，一些費率下降了，人們有了額外的保險空間，等等。剩下的就是一些有利的時機。我們現在對此有了更深入的了解。正如我所指出的，這種情況將在今年下半年逆轉。

But let me be clear, we said from the very beginning that we thought this was a group of folks that, when working with our overall company when we integrated them into working with retail and our wholesale, specialty people, that it would be a good match. And that's what we're seeing. These guys and gals are just doing a tremendous job, and the new business was outstanding. Congratulations to them.

但我要明確一點，我們從一開始就說過，我們認為這是一群人，當我們將他們融入到與零售、批發和專業人員的合作中時，他們會與我們整個公司合作，這將是一次很好的匹配。這就是我們所看到的。這些男男女女做得非常出色，新業務也非常出色。祝賀他們。

That's great. And then my second question, so it sounds like you guys are still working, I guess, not a lot to update, as you said, like working on a response to the DOJ. So is that something, I guess, you guys would expect to respond? I think there's like a 30-day clock once that happens. Is that something that, based on the timeline of a Q4 close, Doug, is that -- would you expect to just respond to comments, I guess, that would be something that would happen in the Q2? Is that your expectation?

那太棒了。然後是我的第二個問題，聽起來你們仍在工作，我想，沒有太多需要更新的內容，正如你所說，例如對司法部的回應。那麼，我想這是你們期望回應的事情嗎？我認為一旦發生這種情況，就會有 30 天的時間。道格，根據第四季度結束的時間表，您是否希望僅回應評論，我想，這會是第二季度發生的事情？這是你的期望嗎？

All right. We're obviously putting together all the information that's been requested. And we're working hard on it both on our side and then the AP team is doing the same thing. We'll get that over to them sometime in mid-third quarter. And then it does start a clock tick, you may have the right to ask some questions. But there is a process here. First, getting that over, certifying to it and then they'll have 30 days to get back to us on that.

好的。我們顯然正在收集所有被要求的資訊。我們雙方都在為此努力，美聯社團隊也在做同樣的事情。我們會在第三季中期將此情況告知他們。然後它確實開始計時，您可能有權提出一些問題。但這裡有一個過程。首先，完成此事，對其進行證明，然後他們將有 30 天的時間回覆我們。

Okay. And then I just -- you mentioned that there was, I guess, some timing that impacted on the first quarter, some kind of -- was it a pull forward from other quarters? I think it was 1% and then there was also going to be an impact in Q2.

好的。然後我只是 - 你提到，我想，有一些時間因素對第一季產生了影響，某種 - 它是從其他季度開始的嗎？我認為是 1%，也會對第二季產生影響。

Yes. All right. So let's go through that a little bit because I think it's a good question. First, it doesn't do anything to full year. Second, we're just getting some better insights into the development of revenues. We've implemented our new reinsurance system last fall. So that's up and running. We've got a new benefit system. So those systems help us look into the treaties and then to the expected headcount in our benefits business.

是的。好的。讓我們稍微討論一下這個問題，因為我認為這是一個很好的問題。首先，它對全年沒有任何影響。其次，我們對收入的發展有了更深入的了解。我們去年秋天實施了新的再保險系統。現在一切已啟動並運行。我們有了新的福利制度。因此，這些系統幫助我們研究條約，然後了解福利業務的預期員工人數。

So while the timing this quarter was mostly in reinsurance, let's call that about two-third, and the other one-third is across our benefits business and a little bit in the specialty business. But without this timing, the first quarter for reinsurance was still in the upper teens, and it impacted specialty and benefits each about 1 point.

因此，雖然本季的時間主要集中在再保險領域，我們稱之為約三分之二，另外三分之一則涉及我們的福利業務和少量專業業務。但如果沒有這個時間安排，再保險的第一季仍然處於十幾歲的水平，並且對專業和福利的影響各為 1 個百分點。

But we're going to have a little bit of that again in the second quarter, but to a lesser magnitude. And then again, the timing will reverse itself compared to last year in the third and fourth quarters. So no impact for full year organic. And we would say that this is the result of just putting in new systems and be able to make better estimates earlier on in the year.

但第二季我們還會再出現一些這樣的情況，但幅度會較小。然後，與去年第三季和第四季相比，時間將再次逆轉。因此對全年有機成長沒有影響。我們會說，這只是引入新系統並能夠在年初做出更好的估計的結果。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Greg Peters, Raymond James.

格雷格彼得斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

So Pat, in your comments, I think it was -- yes, Pat, it was you, that talked about the bifurcation of renewal pricing in the small to mid accounts, which was you defined as less than $100,000, and then the mid to large account. Just wondering if you could provide some more color, because the commentary we're hearing in the marketplace around that seems to suggest that the larger account business might be under a little bit more rate pressure, specifically in the property areas.

所以帕特，在你的評論中，我認為是——是的，帕特，是你，談到了小型到中型帳戶續訂定價的分歧，你將其定義為低於 100,000 美元，然後是中型到大型帳戶。只是想知道您是否可以提供更多細節，因為我們在市場上聽到的評論似乎表明，較大的帳戶業務可能會面臨更大的利率壓力，特別是在房地產領域。

Well, that's exactly what I said, Greg. I mean, I think we're seeing in the large account area, and it's the typical economics. You've got a bigger account, you got more swag, right? You can get a better deal. Especially if you've got good results. And these larger accounts are better managed from a risk management standpoint, and they're seeing the results of that. Our people are clearly helping with that.

嗯，這正是我所說的，格雷格。我的意思是，我認為我們在大帳戶領域看到的是典型的經濟學。您的帳戶更大，您擁有的贓物也更多，對嗎？您可以獲得更好的交易。特別是如果你已經取得了好成績。從風險管理的角度來看，這些較大的帳戶得到了更好的管理，而且他們也看到了這樣做的成果。我們的人民顯然正在為此提供幫助。

You get down into the smaller accounts, all the way down to your personal lines, you don't have the negotiating power. And at the same time, they don't have the great results. So it's a fluid market, but it makes sense to me that, if you're bigger, you get a little bit better deal than if you're smaller.

當你處理較小的帳戶，一直到你的個人帳戶時，你就沒有談判的權力了。但同時，他們的成績卻不理想。所以這是一個流動的市場，但對我來說，如果你的規模更大，你得到的待遇就會比規模更小的更好一些，這是有道理的。

Yeah, it's pretty linear too, Greg. If you look at, let's say, over 100, we said it's up 1 point or so or something like that. But when you go to like $25,000 to $100,000, maybe it's 3.5%, 4%, you get a little lower than that $10,000 to $25,000 account, maybe you're getting in the mid-4%s. And then when you get less than $10,000 as that account size, now this is for premiums, you're seeing it being up in the mid-5%s.

是的，它也非常線性，格雷格。如果你看一下，假設超過 100，我們會說它上漲了 1 點左右或類似的數字。但當你的帳戶餘額達到 25,000 美元到 100,000 美元時，利率可能是 3.5%、4%，相比 10,000 美元到 25,000 美元的帳戶，利率會略低一些，可能在 4% 左右。然後，當您的帳戶金額少於 10,000 美元時，您會看到保費上漲了 5% 左右。

So it's consistent even within that under $100,000 million, that the smaller it gets, the higher the rate increases. We saw that not going up as fast on the other side too, when rates were going up. So I don't know if it's as much they're just a reversion to the mean, also that the smaller accounts are catching up.

因此，即使在 1000 億美元以下，情況也是一致的，金額越小，利率就越高。我們看到，當利率上升時，另一邊的上升速度也沒有那麼快。所以我不知道這是否只是一種回歸均值的情況，還是小額帳戶正在迎頭趕上。

That makes sense. For my second question, my follow-up question, I'm going to pivot back to the pending acquisition of AssuredPartners. This has been -- you've obviously been working very closely with them for the last several months now and trying to get this to the finish line. And I know you were pretty forthcoming with details about how you expected margin improvement to materialize and retention and organic revenue growth to develop. And I'm just curious, now that we're here in May, if you have a different perspective or if there's any different changes you have on the views on the opportunity with AssuredPartners for all of the areas I mentioned.

這很有道理。對於我的第二個問題，也就是我的後續問題，我將回到即將進行的 AssuredPartners 收購案。顯然，過去幾個月來您一直與他們密切合作，並努力將此事完成。我知道您非常樂意詳細說明您預期如何實現利潤率提高以及保留率和有機收入成長。我只是好奇，現在已經是五月了，您是否有不同的看法，或者您對與 AssuredPartners 合作在我提到的所有領域的機會的看法是否有任何不同的變化。

Well, thank you for the question, Greg. But I'll tell you, it's actually gotten stronger. I mean we did our Board meeting this week, and that was, of course, one of the key questions. Their turnover is actually better than ours, not by a lot, by maybe 0.5 point to 1 point. So they're staying very consistent with what they've had in the past. And that's after bonuses have been paid, so we're not seeing an uptick. I said when we did the deal, I didn't expect any breakage. We've seen a producer here or there depart, but that's common business across all of our platforms.

好吧，謝謝你的提問，格雷格。但我告訴你，它實際上變得更強大了。我的意思是我們本週舉行了董事會會議，這當然是關鍵問題之一。他們的營業額其實比我們的好，但不是很多，可能高出0.5個百分點到1個百分點。因此，他們與過去的狀況保持一致。這是在支付獎金之後，所以我們沒有看到上漲。我說過，當我們達成交易時，我沒有想到會出現任何違約情況。我們看到一些製片人離開，但這在我們所有的平台上都是很常見的事。

In terms of the people, we've had to be careful given the request for another bit of information, but there are certain work streams that have been allowed to continue. And I'll tell you what, just every single day, our people are more affirmed than the fact that they're dealing with folks that they really like. They understand the business. They love the business. And they can't wait to get the two organizations together. There's no waffling, there's no momma crying. It's people that just want to go out and sell a lot of insurance. And we're very, very -- more excited than we were in January.

就人員而言，考慮到另一點資訊的請求，我們必須謹慎，但某些工作流程已被允許繼續進行。我要告訴你們，每一天，我們的人民都更確信，他們是在和自己真正喜歡的人打交道。他們了解業務。他們熱愛這項事業。他們迫不及待地希望這兩個組織能夠合併。沒有猶豫，也沒有媽媽哭泣。人們只是想出去賣大量保險。我們比一月更加興奮。

Got it. Just a detail question on that. Is the organic profile at Assured based on what you've seen just similar to what you're seeing inside your retail business?

知道了。我只是想問一下關於這個細節的問題。根據您所見，Assured 的有機概況是否與您在零售業務中看到的情況類似？

Yeah. I mean they account for 606 differently, but let's just say it is. You can throw a hat over them.

是的。我的意思是他們對 606 的解釋不同，但我們就這麼說吧。你可以把帽子戴在它們上面。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

Mike Zarresky, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Mike Zarresky。

Thanks. Good evening. Doug, or I think Pat might pull this too, the 1 point of timing benefit in Brokerage organic, is that in addition to the $26 million reversal on page 6 of the CFO commentary, which I'll admit is kind of over my head, in terms of its explanation?

謝謝。晚安.道格，或者我認為帕特也可能會這麼說，經紀業務有機增長中的 1 點時機收益，是不是除了首席財務官評論第 6 頁上的 2600 萬美元逆轉之外，我承認，就其解釋而言，這有點超出我的理解範圍？

Yeah. I think you're calling out the fact last year -- and we highlighted it last year, there was a gross up of revenues and a gross up of expenses as we implemented our conforming accounting policies on some historical acquisitions that caused the gross up. So we didn't take credit for the $26 million as revenue last year and so we shouldn't be measured by that again this year.

是的。我認為您去年就指出了這一事實——我們去年也強調了這一點，由於我們對一些導致總額增加的歷史收購實施了一致的會計政策，因此收入和支出總額均有所增加。因此，我們去年沒有將 2,600 萬美元計入收入，因此今年我們不應該再以此來衡量。

So it's just if you gross up the revenues, you gross up the comp on the revenues and a lot of those revenues triggered some extra earn-outs on it, it all washed to nothing. And we did talk about it last year, but it kind of sticks out a little bit more now, you can see that we repeated the note about that, on page 6, I think it's in the third footnote -- or second or third footnote there. So it's -- we're levelizing for a change in purchase accounting, which I think is 100% appropriate.

因此，如果你將收入加總，將收入上的補償加總，並且其中許多收入觸發了一些額外的盈利，那麼這一切都將化為烏有。我們去年確實討論過這個問題，但現在這個問題更加突出了，你可以看到我們在第 6 頁重複了關於這個問題的註釋，我認為它在第三個腳註中 - 或者那裡的第二個或第三個腳註。所以，我們正在為採購會計的改變進行平衡，我認為這是 100% 合適的。

Okay. Got it. I'll make sure to go through that. Switching gears a bit, a question on also brokerage organic. The RPC stat that you began giving out in recent years, which is helpful, I think it was 4% this past quarter. And organic, obviously tremendous, 5 points-plus above that.

好的。知道了。我一定會完成這個任務。稍微轉換一下話題，還有一個關於經紀有機的問題。您近年來開始提供的 RPC 統計數據很有幫助，我認為上個季度是 4%。而且有機，顯然非常棒，比那高出 5 分以上。

But if we look kind of going back a few years that you disclosed RPC -- it's much -- the gap between organic and RPC is much narrower. Curious, should the gap stay wider than historical kind of implied by your guidance? And maybe part of the reason is reinsurance isn't included in RPC. But any -- am I asking a question you think is fair?

但如果我們回顧一下您披露 RPC 的幾年——有機和 RPC 之間的差距要小得多。好奇的是，差距是否應該比您的指導所暗示的歷史差距更大？也許部分原因是再保險不包括在 RPC 中。但是—您認為我問的問題公平嗎？

It's a fair question, Mike, but here are a couple of things. We were a different company than we were then. And number one, we've got many more large accounts. Our large account penetration continues to grow every month, and a lot of that business is on fees.

這是一個公平的問題，麥克，但這裡有幾件事。我們現在已經和當時的公司不一樣了。首先，我們擁有更多大客戶。我們的大額帳戶滲透率每月都在成長，其中很大一部分業務來自收費業務。

Then also, when you take a look at the business and how we're selling it, I think that we're better sellers today. We've got tools that are just unbelievable in terms of helping our producers get out and drive new business, whether it be what we call Gallagher Win, which is sales force, and then you've got the data analytics and Gallagher Drive, which I think most of you have seen these tools, we presented them to you. And they're maturing now. They're in the hands of solid producers that have got -- any time the market is in flux.

此外，當您看一下我們的業務以及我們如何銷售它時，我認為我們今天的銷售表現更好。我們擁有令人難以置信的工具，可以幫助我們的生產商拓展新業務，無論是我們所說的 Gallagher Win（銷售團隊），還是數據分析和 Gallagher Drive，我想大多數人都見過這些工具，我們將它們呈現給你們。現在它們正在成熟。它們掌握在可靠的生產商手中——無論何時市場發生變化。

That's great news for our producers up and down. And frankly, right now, it's a great time and it's a great message for our client base and our prospect base work with Gallagher. And we think we've got an opportunity to really do a great job on your pricing as well as your coverage and your terms. So we're a different company, better opportunities, more fee business, larger platform, stronger players.

這對我們所有生產者來說都是個好消息。坦白說，現在是一個偉大的時刻，對於我們與加拉格爾合作的客戶群和潛在客戶群來說，這是一個很棒的訊息。我們認為我們有機會在您的定價、覆蓋範圍和條款方面做得非常出色。因此，我們是一家不同的公司，擁有更好的機會、更多的收費業務、更大的平台、更強大的參與者。

Okay. That makes sense. If I could just sneak one last one, a follow-up in. You said that you'll respond to the, I guess, government about the Assured data request in a number of months. Any color on why this data request would take such a long time to --

好的。這很有道理。如果我可以偷偷地做最後一個，那就進行後續行動。您說過，我想，您將在幾個月內回應政府關於保證資料請求的問題。為什麼這個資料請求需要這麼長時間才能完成？--

I'll give you one bit of color, Mike. We're not talking a lot about this. That's intentional. It's a lot of data from both parties.

我會給你一點顏色看看，麥克。我們對此討論不多。這是故意的。這是來自雙方的大量數據。

Appreciate that.

非常感謝。

Mark Hughes, Truest Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truest Securities。

Yeah, thank you. Good afternoon. And if I heard you properly, you said the workers' comp up 5% versus I think it was up 1% last quarter. Is there something going on there or?

是的，謝謝。午安.如果我沒聽錯的話，您說工人補償金上漲了 5%，而我認為上個季度上漲了 1%。那裡發生什麼事了嗎？

Not really. I mean, we did actually [plumb] for that among our Gallagher -- Gallagher Bassett's biggest line of covers, of course, is comp. We were asking ourselves, is there any systemic change there? We don't see it. Most of comp is fee scheduled stuff. So I think it's underlying comp costs are up with medical. But I also do think it's a better economy than I think people are writing about. Our daily check-in on the economy is that our middle market accounts, in particular, are pretty robust.

並不真地。我的意思是，我們確實在 Gallagher Bassett 最大的封面系列中找到了這一點，當然，這是 comp。我們問自己，那裡有系統性的改變嗎？我們沒有看到。大部分的補償都是以費用計算。所以我認為其潛在的補償成本與醫療成本是一致的。但我確實認為，目前的經濟狀況比人們所寫的還要好。我們每天檢查經濟狀況，發現我們的中端市場帳戶尤其強勁。

Yes, we're still seeing good employment growth in those folks. We are -- I think there is starting to be more chatter around medical inflation. So there could be some proactiveness there by the carriers on that in order to make sure they stay ahead of it. So it's not a huge portion of our book really, but it is an interesting uptick that is -- remember, that's both rate and exposure. So it's moving north and our educated guess is more exposure and higher medical inflation.

是的，我們仍然看到這些人的就業成長良好。我認為，關於醫療通膨的討論開始增多。因此，營運商可以採取一些積極主動的措施，以確保自己保持領先地位。因此，這實際上並不是我們書中的很大一部分，但這是一個有趣的上升趨勢 - 請記住，這是利率和曝光率。因此，它正在向北移動，我們有根據的猜測是，風險敞口會更大，醫療通膨也會更高。

And then on the property market, Pat, what's your sense of how this thing plays out? Obviously, it's sensitive to cat losses. So a lot of it depends. But in your experience where you've had kind of a run-up and then you start to see it turn back a little bit, how is this going to work over the next few quarters, couple of years?

那麼關於房地產市場，帕特，您認為事情會如何發展？顯然，它對貓的損失很敏感。所以很大程度上取決於情況。但根據您的經驗，您曾經歷過某種程度的上漲，然後開始看到它稍微回落，在接下來的幾個季度或幾年裡，這種情況會如何發展？

Well, again, Mark, let me go back in my history, which is a long one now. The property markets, I would define it as fragile, right? When you're minting money, it's a great place to be. And of course, you're going to give customers back some of the money you've made. But boy, the bill comes hard when it comes, and it's not gradual.

好吧，馬克，讓我再回顧一下我的歷史，這是一個很長的歷史。我會將房地產市場定義為脆弱的，對嗎？當你鑄造金錢時，這是一個好地方。當然，你會把賺到的部分錢還給顧客。但是，法案一旦出台就很難實施，而且不是循序漸進的。

And so it just seems that we're all concerned. In fact, you might recall a year ago or so, we surveyed over 1,000 of our customers, middle market customers, their number 1 concern was weather-related, climate change. And I think we all see it. We never had tornadoes in the fall. These convective storms have got every scratching their head. The prediction for the hurricane season is more storms than normal. Last year, there was that prediction as well, and it wasn't as severe.

看來我們都很關心。事實上，您可能還記得大約一年前，我們調查了 1,000 多名客戶，中端市場客戶，他們最關心的是與天氣有關的氣候變遷。我想我們都看到了這一點。秋天我們從未遭遇過龍捲風。這些對流風暴讓每個人都感到困惑。據預測，颶風季節的風暴數量將比正常情況更多。去年也有這樣的預測，但沒有那麼嚴重。

But I'll tell you, whoever saw California wildfire is coming, you combine those with some storms, both in California and around the world -- well, the thing about property is it can change on a dime. Now we certainly hope that doesn't happen because our customers have been shocked. You know how I feel about hard markets.

但我要告訴你，無論誰預見了加州野火即將來臨，如果將這些與加州和世界各地的一些風暴結合起來——那麼，關於財產的事情就是它可以在一瞬間發生變化。現在我們當然希望這種情況不會發生，因為我們的客戶已經感到震驚。你知道我對艱難市場的感受。

I'd much rather have a market that's pretty stable, lets us show our tools, help us contain the cost for our clients. It's hard to explain to people why rates are jumping. You can do it in property because you can show them the losses. But I think you're right to ask the question. It's all well and good now. I think customers deserve a bit of a decrease. Carriers are on a little bit of an edge, if you will. They know they've got to give some money back. The market is competitive, but if the wind blows, the story could change very quickly.

我更希望有一個相當穩定的市場，讓我們展示我們的工具，幫助我們控制客戶的成本。很難向人們解釋利率為何會上漲。您可以在房地產方面做到這一點，因為您可以向他們展示損失。但我認為你問這個問題是對的。現在一切都很好。我認為顧客應該得到一點折扣。如果你願意的話，運營商處於有點邊緣的位置。他們知道他們必須歸還一些錢。市場競爭激烈，但只要風向一變，情況可能很快就會改變。

Very good. Well, everything -- it's definitely crazy out there with the Cavs in first place. I'm with you.

非常好。好吧，一切——騎士隊位居第一，這絕對是瘋狂的。我和你在一起。

Mark, that's the new normal.

馬克，這就是新常態。

Okay.

好的。

No, Mark. That's the new normal. We waited 100 years. Some people have a bad decade. We had a bad century. We're back for good.

不，馬克。這就是新常態。我們等了100年。有些人經歷了糟糕的十年。我們經歷了一個糟糕的世紀。我們永遠回來了。

Alright, I'll --.

好的，我會--.

David Moamma, Evercore ISI.

David Moamma，Evercore ISI。

My question, I missed it, just on the RPC for this quarter. I think you had said it was 5% last quarter. It was trending around 4% the first two months of the quarter, this 1Q. Where did that end up for 1Q? And within your outlook, what are you guys assuming for the rest of the year?

我的問題是，我錯過了，只是關於本季的 RPC。我認為您說過上個季度是 5%。本季前兩個月，也就是今年第一季度，這一趨勢一直保持在 4% 左右。第一季的結果如何？在您的展望中，您對今年剩餘時間的走勢有何預測？

So let me see if I can break that apart. What's your question? You want to know what the renewal premium change was in the first quarter and what our outlook is for the rest of the year? Is that the question?

那麼讓我看看是否能將其分解。你的問題是什麼？您想知道第一季的續保費變化情況以及我們對今年剩餘時間的展望如何嗎？這是問題嗎？

Yeah. What's embedded in the outlook that you gave -- the organic cadence that you gave.

是的。您所給予的觀點包含了什麼內容？您給的有機節奏是什麼？

Basically about the same. We don't see a further -- property down 2%, call it flat. The casualty rates, we've had a lot of quarters on casualty rates as I look across the grid here, consistently in that [7, 8, 10; 9, 9, 10] as I look at casualty rates coming across. So I think there's still some concerns over casualty on that. So our outlook as we shape our organic for the rest of the year is assuming similar to what we saw right now, or this quarter.

基本上都差不多。我們看不到房地產價格進一步下跌 2% 的情況，稱之為持平。傷亡率，我們已經有很多季度的傷亡率了，當我查看這裡的網格時，傷亡率一直處於 [7, 8, 10; 9、9、10] 當我看到傷亡率時。所以我認為人們仍然對人員傷亡感到擔憂。因此，我們在製定今年剩餘時間的有機成長目標時的展望與我們現在或本季的情況類似。

David, back to Mark's comments before about a long time to look back. In my past experience, when markets became a little squishy, you'd see them fall quite dramatically across all lines. That is not what we're seeing today. Umbrella cover up this past quarter 11%. Continuing push up of casualty. A little bit down on property. As we said in our opening remarks, this is a pretty logical market. So I don't think you're going to see any major change. And if we do, we'll give it to you at our IR Day updates.

大衛，回到馬克之前關於回顧很長時間的評論。根據我過去的經驗，當市場變得有點疲軟時，你會看到它們在各個方面都大幅下跌。但這與我們今天所看到的情況不同。過去一個季度，雨傘覆蓋率上漲了 11%。傷亡人數持續上升。財產方面有點虧。正如我們在開場白中所說，這是一個非常合乎邏輯的市場。所以我認為你不會看到任何重大變化。如果我們這樣做了，我們會在 IR Day 更新中將其提供給您。

Got it. Thank you. And then I guess I'm also wondering that difference between the middle market and large account. I guess I'm wondering just I know that there's typically, the large account business is more cyclical and you guys are underweight that. But outside of that, when you look at your middle-market property book and small market property book, would you say that's more SCS exposed and, therefore, the pricing might be a little bit more durable there? Or is that just -- is that not the right way to think about it?

知道了。謝謝。然後我想我也想知道中端市場和大客戶之間的差異。我想我只是想了解一下，通常來說，大額帳戶業務的周期性更強，而你們對此的重視程度較低。但除此之外，當您查看中型市場房地產書籍和小型市場房地產書籍時，您是否會說其中更多的是 SCS 暴露，因此那裡的定價可能會更持久一些？或者這只是——這不是正確的思考方式嗎？

I don't like to think about it that way. And I'll tell you why. Convective storms are -- they seem to be localized in the Midwest. You got fire risk in lots of states I never thought of before, like New Jersey. But I don't think that's necessarily something you'd say is more akin to hurting those accounts, although you have to say there are a heck of a lot more small accounts than there are large accounts. There was 1,000 Fortune 1,000 accounts. There's 1,000 small accounts in Schaumburg.

我不喜歡這樣想。我會告訴你為什麼。對流風暴似乎集中在中西部地區。很多我以前從未想過的州都存在火災風險，例如新澤西州。但我不認為這必然會損害這些帳戶，儘管你不得不說小帳戶的數量比大帳戶多得多。有 1,000 個財富 1,000 強帳戶。沙姆堡有 1,000 個小帳戶。

So I guess, in one sense, I'd argue, no, I don't think those storms fall necessarily harder on one book of business than another, except by virtue of the fact that the numbers are just greater. I think it's buying power. That's what I'd say, David. It's just real simple. If I get an account that's going to pay me $100,000 or an account that's going to pay me $100 million, who gets a better deal? $100 million.

因此我想，從某種意義上來說，我認為，不，我不認為這些風暴對某一家公司的影響一定比對另一家公司的影響更大，除非是因為數量更多。我認為這就是購買力。這就是我要說的，大衛。這真的很簡單。如果我有一個可以支付給我 10 萬美元的帳戶，或者一個可以支付給我 1 億美元的帳戶，誰會得到更好的交易？1億美元。

Yeah. No, that makes sense. And then so I might be nitpicking here, but I think you guys have called out 5% organic in US retail and it sounds like that was maybe a little bit lighter than what you guys were talking about. In March. I think you guys were saying 6%. Was there anything behind that outside of just the general RPC trends that we spoke about?

是的。不，這很有道理。然後，我可能在這裡吹毛求疵，但我認為你們已經呼籲美國零售業實現 5% 的有機率，這聽起來可能比你們談論的要輕一些。三月。我認為你們說的是 6%。除了我們談到的一般 RPC 趨勢之外，背後還有其他因素嗎？

Listen, I think that when you get down to a 1 point one way or another on the organic, I would say they're almost the same number. There could be a mix difference in there. When something moves 1 point, I'll be honest, we don't dig into it as deeply if something moves 5 points.

聽著，我認為當你以某種方式將有機物含量降至 1 點時，我會說它們幾乎是相同的數字。這其中可能存在混合差異。當某件事變動 1 點時，說實話，如果某件事變動 5 點，我們就不會深入研究它。

So the point is consider it mix, but still, the point is on this is it's still going up. And if you look across everything that we've said is we still have a market that is arguably flat in a couple of spots and going up in a lot of spots, right? So I think that the fact is there still is a need for rate. The carriers see that, you've seen that in the releases that they've had.

因此，重點是考慮混合，但重點是它仍在上升。如果你看我們所說的一切，你會發現我們的市場在某些方面仍然保持平穩，而在許多方面則呈現上漲趨勢，對嗎？所以我認為事實上仍然需要利率。運營商看到了這一點，您已經在他們發布的版本中看到了這一點。

And so I think that you blend all that together, we're selling more than we're losing, and we feel pretty good about a 6% to 8% year, that would be a terrific five- or six-year run on that.

所以我認為，把所有這些因素綜合起來，我們的銷售額大於虧損額，我們對每年 6% 到 8% 的增長率感到相當滿意，這將是一個非常棒的五六年的增長。

No, I definitely agree. Thank you,

不，我絕對同意。謝謝你，

Katie Sackis, Autonomous Research.

凱蒂·薩基斯（Katie Sackis），自主研究。

Hi, thank you. I guess my first question, I wanted to go back to Doug's comments on the cadence of Brokerage organic growth that you expect to see for 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q? Back-of-the-envelope math, I'm kind of getting to the midpoint of the 6% to 8% full year guide. Which of those quarters, Doug, do you kind of see the most potential to upside versus your current estimates right now? And how does seasonality perhaps inform that view?

你好，謝謝。我想我的第一個問題是，我想回到 Doug 對經紀業務有機成長節奏的評論，您預計第二季、第三季和第四季經紀業務有機成長的節奏會如何？粗略計算一下，我大概已經達到了全年指導價 6% 至 8% 的中間值。道格，與您目前的估計相比，您認為哪個季度最有上漲潛力？那麼季節性如何影響這種觀點呢？

I think the upside could come in the fourth quarter. I think if we have a storm season, and like Pat said, the property shifts, I also still believe that there's going to be development issues, as you get into your third quarter actuarial reserves as they start to do their third quarter views of how they feel their development is.

我認為第四季可能會出現上漲。我認為，如果我們遇到風暴季節，並且像帕特所說的那樣，財產發生變化，我仍然相信會出現發展問題，當你進入第三季度的精算儲備時，他們開始對第三季度的發展情況進行看法。

When it goes from a -- into a paid loss triangle versus an incurred loss triangle, you kind of wake up to that when you do your actuarial reviews in the third quarter. So fourth quarter is probably the quarter where there's the most upside.

當它從已支付損失三角形轉變為已發生損失三角形時，您在第三季度進行精算審查時就會意識到這一點。因此第四季可能是最具上漲潛力的一個季度。

Great. Super helpful. And then I apologize if this next question is a little bit nitpicky, but I noticed in the CFO commentary that the average EBITDAC multiple that you guys paid for your tuck-ins this quarter was slightly elevated at 11.5 times versus the 10 to 11 times guide. Is that just a result of some noise from one-off transactions? Or is there any additional color that we should be aware of there?

偉大的。超有幫助。然後，如果下一個問題有點挑剔，我很抱歉，但我注意到在財務長的評論中，你們本季度為促銷活動支付的平均 EBITDAC 倍數略有上升，為 11.5 倍，而指導值為 10 到 11 倍。這僅僅是一次性交易產生的一些噪音造成的嗎？或者我們是否應該注意其他顏色？

If I peel apart the 11 that we closed in the quarter, I don't see anybody really off the map on that. So being 10 to 11 is still pretty close, so.

如果我把我們在本季完成的 11 筆交易分開來看，我發現沒有任何交易是真正出乎意料的。所以 10 到 11 還是很接近的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Andersen , Jeffrey.

安德魯·安德森，傑弗裡。

Hey, good afternoon. The supplemental commissions within Brokerage were pretty strong. Was there any timing benefit there? And just maybe more broadly, could you talk about how you're thinking about those line items, the contingents and supplementals?

嘿，下午好。經紀業務的補充佣金相當豐厚。是否存在時間優勢？也許更廣泛地說，您能否談談您對這些項目、或有事項和補充事項的看法？

All right. So supplementals in the first quarter. We've had some pretty good work as we start to negotiate contracts for the coming year. I think the team has done a good job of getting more carrier relationships under our supplemental. So I wouldn't say that there's anything systemic there. Maybe there's a couple of million flip between contingent and supplemental, but that carriers switch back and forth between those.

好的。因此第一季有補充。當我們開始就來年的合約進行談判時，我們已經做了一些相當不錯的工作。我認為團隊在我們的補充下在建立更多承運人關係方面做得很好。所以我不會說那裡存在任何系統性的東西。也許有幾百萬的人在附加險和補充險之間轉換，但承運人會在它們之間來回切換。

They're still, by and large, volume-based. Volumes up, things are good.

總體而言，它們仍然是基於數量的。音量增大，狀況很好。

Got you. And then just within specialty, could you maybe talk about the growth difference between open brokerage and MGA? And I suppose where I'm going with this is, I'm not sure if the MGAs are kind of weighted to property. But if we're seeing some compression in property rate, could that impact your MGA growth in the back half of the year?

明白了。那麼，就專業領域而言，您能否談談開放經紀和 MGA 之間的成長差異？我想我要說的是，我不確定 MGA 是否對財產有一定重視。但如果我們看到房地產利率有所壓縮，這是否會影響今年下半年的 MGA 成長？

Our binding business had a terrific quarter. I think they're in the mid-teens. The Brokerage business was probably 5% to 6%, something like that. So I think between the two, brokerage and binding, our affinity business had a terrific quarter. Captives were a little slow this quarter. But by and large, the binding business did a really great job. And the open brokerage is still continuing to show really, really nice mid-single-digit growth.

我們的裝訂業務本季表現十分出色。我認為他們正值十幾歲。經紀業務大概佔5%到6%左右。因此，我認為，在經紀和裝訂業務方面，我們的親和力業務本季表現非常出色。本季俘虜有點慢。但整體而言，裝訂業務確實做得非常好。並且開放經紀業務仍然繼續顯示出非常非常好的中等個位數成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

Great, thanks so much. Two big picture questions, if I can. First, if my memory is correct then, one of the benefits you were talking about when you bought Gallagher Re was that you could introduce reinsurance brokerage capabilities to all of the carriers that you place business with. And I'm wondering whether the 20% organic growth that you had in the first quarter, does any -- is that still a factor? Or has that played out and this is just the execution of the current team?

太好了，非常感謝。如果可以的話，我問兩個大問題。首先，如果我沒記錯的話，您收購 Gallagher Re 時提到的一個好處是，您可以為所有與您有業務往來的保險公司提供再保險經紀能力。我想知道，第一季實現的 20% 的有機成長是否仍然是一個因素？或者這已經發生了，而這只是當前團隊的執行？

No, that's a big factor. And that's 15 deals. Again, we're not getting granular as to who, what, where, and when. But that's exactly what we talked about. It's coming out the way we dreamed it. These people are working together. We've introduced them to some other players that they didn't know. They've introduced us to plenty of players we didn't know.

不，這是一個重要因素。總共有 15 筆交易。再次強調，我們無法詳細了解誰、什麼、哪裡和何時。但這正是我們所談論的。一切正如我們夢想的那樣發生了。這些人正在共同努力。我們向他們介紹了一些他們不認識的其他球員。他們向我們介紹了很多我們不認識的球員。

The cross-pollinization both in what we're doing in retail and things like pools and what they're doing with carriers that we didn't know about has been very good for our retail team. And of course, we've got deep relations with carriers across the board that all of us at this table have traded with for years. And it's not -- it's just really been a very positive development in our repertoire.

我們在零售和游泳池等方面所做的工作以及他們與我們所不知道的運營商所做的工作的相互影響對我們的零售團隊非常有益。當然，我們與各大業者都保持著深厚的關係，在座的各位都與他們進行了多年的貿易往來。這並不是——這實際上只是我們曲目中非常積極的發展。

Listen, in our culture, the fact that people run together to help each other, we're really seeing that. We're seeing a lot of joint meetings between our retail folks, our wholesale folks, our reinsurers. I just spent a week in London, and all the opportunities that we have with MGAs and capital formation using the reinsurance opportunities, I think we're just scratching the surface of what Gallagher Re will bring to us.

聽著，在我們的文化中，人們一起奔跑互相幫助，我們確實看到了這一點。我們看到零售人員、批發人員和再保險公司之間舉行了許多聯合會議。我剛剛在倫敦待了一個星期，我們與 MGAs 以及利用再保險機會進行資本形成方面的所有機會，我認為我們只是觸及了 Gallagher Re 將為我們帶來的東西的表面。

Okay. That's very helpful. The second question, I'm just trying to put this together in my head. You've got more leverage with the big accounts because they've got more swag, I think that's the way Pat put it. On the other hand, there's a higher propensity towards fees there. So overall, is the larger account business more or less sensitive, from your perspective, the revenue growth more or less sensitive to the cycle than in small and mid?

好的。這非常有幫助。第二個問題，我只是試著在腦中把這個問題整合起來。你在與大帳戶打交道時擁有更大的籌碼，因為他們擁有更多的贓物，我想這就是帕特所說的。另一方面，那裡的收費傾向更高。那麼整體而言，從您的角度來看，大客戶業務的收入成長對週期的敏感度是否比中小型客戶業務更高或更低？

It's probably less because we're on fees. I mean, that's -- there's no question about that. And the nice thing about a fee account in a softening market is that you don't get asked to take a pay cut for doing a better job.

可能因為我們要收取費用所以金額會更少。我的意思是——這是毫無疑問的。在市場疲軟的情況下，收費帳戶的好處是，你不會因為做得更好而被要求減薪。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Cave Monteri, Deutsche Bank.

Cave Monteri，德意志銀行。

I know you guys have a pretty good real-time pulse on the economy. Earlier in your prepared remarks, you mentioned the US labor market was still strong. But just wondering in your conversations with clients, especially the middle market clients, what are they staying on the impact of tariffs on their business?

我知道你們對經濟的即時動態非常了解。您之前在準備好的發言中提到美國勞動市場依然強勁。但我只是想知道，在與客戶，特別是中端市場客戶的對話中，他們對關稅對其業務的影響有何看法？

I think that you've read all the stuff, Cave, that there is out there. I mean everybody's got questions, and it's too -- it's very client specific. What business are you in? Where does your product mix come from? What's your supply chain? Is it something that you can change one way or another? How do your clients feel about it?

凱夫，我想你已經讀完了所有這些東西。我的意思是每個人都有疑問，而且它太——它是針對客戶的。您從事什麼行業？您的產品組合來自哪裡？你的供應鏈是怎樣的？這是你能以某種方式改變的事情嗎？您的客戶對此有何感受？

The good news for us is that any time there's consternation, anytime there's change, anytime there's concern, we're there to help them through it. So if, in fact, tariffs create some additional loss costs or some additional value increases, there's ways to mitigate that, whether we move towards a captive, higher retentions, change the language, et cetera, et cetera. But there's concern as to what it means to them as individuals. And I'd say that's much more pronounced in the middle and small cap market.

對我們來說，好消息是，每當他們感到驚愕、改變、擔憂時，我們都會幫助他們度過難關。因此，如果關稅確實造成了一些額外的損失成本或額外的價值增加，那麼我們就有辦法來緩解這種情況，無論我們是轉向自保、提高保留率、改變語言等等。但人們擔心這對他們個人意味著什麼。我認為這種現像在中小型股市場更為明顯。

Makes sense. My follow-up is on your international organic growth. I think you mentioned 4% if I remember correctly, I guess it's not a bad number in absolute terms, but it is a bit of a drag on the overall brokerage organic. Could you give us a bit of maybe regional color on what you're seeing internationally? Maybe like some regions being better than others?

有道理。我的後續問題是您的國際有機成長。如果我沒記錯的話，您提到了 4%，我想從絕對值來看這不是一個壞數字，但它對整體經紀業務的有機增長有點拖累。您能否從地區角度向我們介紹一下您在國際上看到的情況？也許有些地區比其他地區更好？

Yes. Cave, it's a flat market. Australia and New Zealand first quarter is very slow because of their heavy periods are in the summer. The UK retail is hanging in there, kind of similar to our retail. So if you're thinking about maybe a -- call Canada flat and the rest of them maybe 5% to 6%

是的。洞穴，這是一個平坦的市場。澳洲和紐西蘭第一季的業務非常緩慢，因為這兩個國家的業務繁忙期都在夏季。英國零售業仍在堅持，有點類似我們的零售業。所以，如果你考慮一下——加拿大的成長率可能持平，其他國家的成長率可能為 5% 到 6%

And remember, nowhere in the world has our casualty book. Nobody's got our tort system. So we are seeing pressure on casualty rates and carriers are seeing pressure on their past casualty years.

請記住，世界上沒有任何地方有我們的傷亡記錄簿。沒有人了解我們的侵權行為制度。因此，我們看到了傷亡率的壓力，而承運人也看到了過去傷亡率的壓力。

Yeah, that makes sense. And if I could squeeze one more in on the topic of international, like from an M&A inorganic growth point of view, internationally, like where is your appetite geographically, where you think there's going to be good opportunities to grow in the future?

是的，這很有道理。如果我可以在國際話題上再多說一點，例如從併購無機成長的角度來看，從地理上講，您的興趣在哪裡，您認為未來哪裡會有良好的成長機會？

Well, first of all, we now trade extensively throughout the world. As we said in our prepared comments, there's not an account anywhere in the world we can't do, of any size. But if you take a look at premium, written premium, that's the ball we're following.

首先，我們現在在世界各地廣泛開展貿易。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，世界上沒有我們不能辦理的帳戶，無論其規模大小。但如果你看一下保費，書面保費，這就是我們所關注的。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thanks, Cave. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. We had a great first quarter and a great kickoff to 2025. It's important that we thank the 57,000 colleagues around the globe for doing the work that creates these results. Their creativity, dedication and unwavering client focus is what really makes these results. Thank you all, and have a great evening.

謝謝，Cave。好吧，謝謝大家今天下午加入我們。我們的第一季表現十分出色，2025 年也開了一個好頭。我們必須感謝全球 57,000 名同事的努力，才創造了這些成果。他們的創造力、奉獻精神和堅定不移的客戶關注才是這些成果的真正原因。謝謝大家，祝大家有個愉快的夜晚。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your night.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。享受剩下的夜晚。