Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

下午好，歡迎參加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以立即斷開連接。

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call.

本次電話會議中的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的資訊或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中有關前瞻性陳述和風險因素部分的資訊。

In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

此外，有關本次電話會議討論的非公認會計準則指標的對帳以及有關這些指標的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益報告和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很高興介紹 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 的董事長兼執行長 J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.。加拉格爾先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our second-quarter '25 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO; and other members of the management team. We had a great second quarter. For our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 16% growth in revenue 5.4% organic growth, reported net earnings margin of 17.3%, adjusted EBITDAC margin of 34.5%, up 307 basis points year-over-year, adjusted EBITDAC growth of 26%, our 21st consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

謝謝。下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的財務長 Doug Howell 以及管理團隊的其他成員。我們第二季表現非常出色。就我們的經紀和風險管理部門而言，我們的收入增長了 16%，有機增長了 5.4%，報告淨利潤率為 17.3%，調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 34.5%，同比增長 307 個基點，調整後的 EBITDAC 增長 26%，這是我們連續第兩位增長數21 個季度增長 21 個季度增長數。

GAAP earnings per share of $2.11 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.95, another strong quarter by the team. Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 17%. Organic growth was 5.3%, in line with our expectations despite headwinds from Cat property renewal premium changes in June.

每股 GAAP 收益為 2.11 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.95 美元，這是球隊又一個表現強勁的季度。從經紀業務部門開始，轉向按部門劃分的結果。報告收入增長了17%。有機成長率達到 5.3%，符合我們的預期，儘管 6 月 Cat 財產續保保費變化帶來了不利影響。

Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 334 basis points to 36.4%, with underlying margin up around 60 basis points. Doug will break down the margin expansion further in his comments. Let me provide you with some insights behind our Brokerage segment organic. Within our retail operations, we delivered 4% organic overall, a reflection of the heavier weighting to property business this quarter. US organic was 5%, with PC a bit below and Benefits a bit above that level. Outside the US, our international operations, primarily in the UK and Canada, Australia and New Zealand were collectively around 3% and with UK a bit above in Canada a bit below 3%.

調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大 334 個基點至 36.4%，基礎利潤率上漲約 60 個基點。道格將在他的評論中進一步闡述利潤率的擴大。讓我為您提供一些有關我們經紀業務部門有機發展的見解。在我們的零售業務中，我們整體實現了 4% 的有機成長，這反映了本季房地產業務的較大比重。美國有機產品佔比為 5%，PC 略低於該水平，而 Benefits 略高於該水平。除美國以外，我們的國際業務主要在英國、加拿大、澳洲和紐西蘭，整體成長率約為 3%，其中英國略高於 3%，加拿大略低於 3%。

Shifting to our reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses. In total organic of nearly 7%. This includes 5% organic from Gallagher Re and more than 7% organic from our wholesale and specialty businesses. So we continue to deliver organic growth across retail, wholesale and reinsurance.

轉向我們的再保險、批發和專業業務。佔有機總量的近7%。其中包括來自 Gallagher Re 的 5% 有機產品和來自我們的批發和專業業務的 7% 以上的有機產品。因此，我們繼續在零售、批發和再保險領域實現有機成長。

Next, let me provide some thoughts on the PC insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Overall, the global PC insurance market remains rational, and we expect that to continue. Carriers today have insights into what products and geographies are generating appropriate returns and areas that need to be re-underwritten or repriced to improve profitability.

接下來，讓我從主要保險市場開始，就個人電腦保險定價環境提供一些看法。總體而言，全球個人電腦保險市場仍然保持理性，我們預期這種趨勢將持續下去。如今，承運商可以深入了解哪些產品和地區能夠產生適當的回報，以及哪些地區需要重新承保或重新定價以提高獲利能力。

Accordingly, we are seeing more carrier competition across property and continued caution within casualty lines. Breaking down second quarter global renewal premium changes, which includes both rate and exposure, we saw the following by product line, property down 7%. That's a couple of points below what we were seeing at the time of our early June IR day.

因此，我們看到財產險領域的保險公司競爭愈演愈烈，而意外險領域的保險公司則繼續保持謹慎。細分第二季全球續保保費變化（包括費率和風險敞口），我們發現按產品線劃分，財產險下降了 7%。這比我們在六月初 IR 日時看到的情況低了幾個點。

Casualty lines, up 8% overall, including general liability up 4%; commercial auto up 7% and umbrella up 11%. Package up 5%, D&O, down 3%, workers comp up about 1 point and personal lines up 7%. Breaking down renewal premiums by client size, we continue to see significant differences. For clients generating less than $100,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were up 3%.

意外險整體上漲 8%，其中一般責任險上漲 4%；商業車險上漲 7%，綜合險上漲 11%。套餐上漲 5%，D&O 下降 3%，工人補償上漲約 1 個百分點，個人賠付上漲 7%。按客戶規模細分續保保費，我們仍然看到顯著差異。對於收入低於 10 萬美元的客戶，續保保費上漲了 3%。

For clients generating more than $100,000, renewal premiums were down 2%. As we discussed with you in June, second quarter renewal premium changes are more heavily influenced by property coverages than the other quarters. Excluding property, both small to midsize accounts and larger accounts are seeing global renewal premium increases in the 4% to 6% range.

對於收入超過 10 萬美元的客戶，續保保費下降了 2%。正如我們在六月與您討論的那樣，第二季的續保保費變化比其他季度受到財產保險的影響更大。除房地產外，中小型帳戶和大型帳戶的全球續保費增幅都​​在 4% 至 6% 之間。

Now good accounts will get some premium relief from that. However, accounts with poor loss experience are likely to see greater increases. Today's environment is actually ideal for us to show our expertise, product knowledge and data-driven capabilities. Our talented team help clients navigate market complexities while finding the best coverage.

現在，優質帳戶將因此獲得一些保費減免。然而，損失經歷較差的帳戶可能會出現更大的增長。現今的環境實際上非常適合我們展示我們的專業知識、產品知識和數據驅動能力。我們優秀的團隊幫助客戶應對市場複雜性，同時找到最佳的覆蓋範圍。

Moving to the reinsurance market now. Our June and July renewals reflected broadly similar conditions as earlier in the year. Property coverage continued to favor reinsurance buyers, particularly on CAT-exposed risks and increased limits being purchased are somewhat offsetting rate decreases. Casualty reinsurance dynamics reflected continued concerns over prior year loss development and rising loss trends from inflation and the litigation environment. Thus, pricing was flat to modestly higher.

現在轉向再保險市場。我們六月和七月的續約情況與今年稍早大致相同。財產保險繼續有利於再保險購買者，特別是對巨災風險敞口的保險，而購買限額的增加在一定程度上抵消了費率的下降。意外險再保險動態反映了人們對前一年損失發展以及通貨膨脹和訴訟環境導致的損失上升趨勢的持續擔憂。因此，價格持平或略有上漲。

In a growing market with opportunities to differentiate clients underwriting abilities and risk profiles, Gallagher Re will continue to perform very well. Moving to some comments on our customers business activity. Our second quarter and July revenue indications from audits, endorsements and cancellations continue to be a nice positive.

在不斷成長的市場中，Gallagher Re 有機會區分客戶的承保能力和風險狀況，並將繼續表現出色。轉向對我們客戶業務活動的一些評論。我們在第二季和七月份從審計、認可和取消中獲得的收入指標繼續呈現積極態勢。

So we see solid client business activity in our data and no signs of a broad, meaningful global economic downturn nor any changes from the prospect of tariffs. We will continue to watch these carefully for any early signs of changes in our clients business activity.

因此，我們在數據中看到客戶業務活動穩健，沒有廣泛、嚴重的全球經濟衰退的跡象，也沒有看到關稅前景發生任何變化。我們將繼續密切關注這些情況，以發現客戶業務活動變化的任何早期跡象。

Within the US, we are seeing continued job growth, just not quite at the robust levels we saw during 2024. Additionally, trends from health insurance carriers continue to indicate ongoing increases in medical utilization and treatment costs.

在美國，我們看到就業持續成長，但還沒有達到 2024 年那麼強勁的水平。此外，健康保險公司的趨勢繼續顯示醫療利用率和治療成本持續增加。

Our benefit professionals are well positioned to guide employers through these many challenges. So with a great first half of the books, we now see full year ['25] Brokerage segment organic in the 6.5% to 7.5% range. Doug will unpack our organic outlook by quarter in his comments.

我們的福利專家能夠很好地指導雇主克服這些挑戰。因此，由於上半年業績表現良好，我們現在預計全年 ['25] 經紀業務的有機成長率將在 6.5% 至 7.5% 之間。道格將在他的評論中按季度闡述我們的有機前景。

Regardless of market and economic conditions, I believe we are very well positioned. Today, our niche expertise, extensive data and analytics offerings and global resources put us in a great place competitively. Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Second quarter revenue growth was 9%, including organic of 6.2%.

無論市場和經濟狀況如何，我相信我們都處於非常有利的地位。如今，我們的專業知識、廣泛的數據和分析產品以及全球資源使我們在競爭中佔據了優勢地位。接下來是我們的風險管理部分，加拉格爾巴塞特 (Gallagher Bassett)。第二季營收成長 9%，其中有機成長 6.2%。

We saw solid new business revenue in the second quarter as the new business sold that we spoke about last quarter began to generate revenue. Combined with our fantastic client retention, we believe we will see full year ['25] organic in that 6% to 8% range. Second quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 21%, a bit better than our June expectations and looking ahead, we still see full year margin around 20.5%.

由於我們上個季度談到的出售的新業務開始產生收入，因此我們在第二季度看到了穩健的新業務收入。結合我們優秀的客戶保留率，我們相信全年 ['25] 的自然成長率將達到 6% 至 8% 左右。第二季調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 21%，略優於我們 6 月的預期，展望未來，我們仍預期全年利潤率將在 20.5% 左右。

And that would be another great year for Gallagher Bassett. Shifting to comments about mergers and acquisitions, starting with Assured Partners. Since our early June IR day, we've had -- we've made terrific progress and now believe we will be in a position to complete this transaction here in the third quarter.

對加拉格爾·巴塞特來說，這又將是偉大的一年。轉向有關併購的評論，首先從 Assured Partners 開始。自 6 月初的 IR 日以來，我們已經取得了巨大的進展，現在相信我們將能夠在第三季完成這筆交易。

As for other M&A activity during the second quarter, we completed nine new mergers representing around $290 million of estimated annualized revenue. For those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the Gallagher family of professionals.

至於第二季的其他併購活動，我們完成了九項新的併購，預計年化收入約為 2.9 億美元。對於新加入的合作夥伴，我謹向加拉格爾專業大家庭表示最熱烈的歡迎。

Looking at our pipeline, we have around 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $500 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher.

從我們的管道來看，我們已經簽署或正在準備大約 40 份條款清單，代表著約 5 億美元的年收入。好的公司總是有選擇的，如果他們選擇與加拉格爾合作，那就太好了。

I'll conclude with some comments about our Bedrock Gallagher culture. During the second quarter, I had the pleasure of spending time with thousands of colleagues across the organization including more than 500 college students from the 60th class of the internship program. This rigorous two-month sales internship program is an essential investment in our future.

最後，我將對我們的 Bedrock Gallagher 文化發表一些評論。在第二季度，我很高興與組織內的數千名同事共度時光，其中包括來自第 60 屆實習計畫的 500 多名大學生。這個為期兩個月的嚴格的銷售實習計劃是對我們的未來的重要投資。

And from many -- my many interactions with this talented group. I am more than confident that our sales culture will remain strong for years to come, and that is the Gallagher way.

這是我與這個才華洋溢的團隊進行過多次互動的結果。我非常有信心，我們的銷售文化在未來幾年仍將保持強勁，這就是加拉格爾的方式。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

好的。我現在就停下來，把話題交給 Doug。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll walk you through our earnings release and provide some comments on organic growth and margins by segment, including how we are seeing the rest of the year shape up. Next, I'll move to the CFO commentary document that we post on our IR website and walk you through our typical modeling helpers. And then I'll conclude my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M&A and capital management.

謝謝，帕特，大家好。今天，我將向您介紹我們的收益報告，並對各部門的有機成長和利潤率提供一些評論，包括我們對今年剩餘時間狀況的看法。接下來，我將轉到我們在 IR 網站上發布的 CFO 評論文件，並向您介紹我們典型的建模助手。然後，我將以對現金、併購和資本管理的常規評論來結束我準備好的演講。

All right. Let's flip to page 3 of the earnings release. Brokerage segment organic growth of 5.3% was right in line with our June IR Day guidance. With our first quarter organic at 9.5%, year-to-date, we are at 7.6%. Looking forward to the second half of '25 we see third and fourth quarter organic each around 5%-plus, which will put full year organic in the 6.5% to 7.5% range.

好的。讓我們翻到收益報告的第 3 頁。經紀業務部門有機成長率為 5.3%，與我們 6 月投資者關係日的預期一致。我們第一季的有機成長率為 9.5%，年初至今的有機成長率為 7.6%。展望 2025 年下半年，我們預計第三季和第四季的有機成長率將分別達到 5% 以上，這將使全年有機成長率達到 6.5% 至 7.5% 的範圍內。

Let me give you four call outs on that. First, recall from our first quarter earnings call and our June IR Day, our 9.5% first quarter organic growth had some positive timing that is now flipping to a headwind in the second half. Second, as we discuss every quarter, organic can be dependent on those large and lumpy live cases.

讓我就此提出四點看法。首先，回想一下我們的第一季財報電話會議和 6 月的投資人關係日，我們第一季 9.5% 的自然成長率有一些正面的時機，但現在在下半年卻轉為逆風。其次，正如我們每季所討論的那樣，有機物可能依賴那些大型且塊狀的活體病例。

Given the current interest rate outlook, uncertainty, clients may accelerate or even delay when to buy in policies. Third is property rates, further decreases or on the other hand, a large CAT here in wind season, causing a quick shift higher would also influence our organic and fourth, our casualty rates. We are seeing some lines perhaps bottoming out and other line continuing to steadily march higher.

鑑於當前利率前景的不確定性，客戶可能會加速甚至延遲購買保單的時間。第三是財產費率進一步下降，或另一方面，在風季發生大規模 CAT 導致快速上升也會影響我們的有機費率，第四是傷亡率。我們看到一些線路可能已經觸底，而其他線路則繼續穩步走高。

Looking to page 5 of the earnings release to the Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. Second quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 36.4%, up 334 basis points year-over-year and above our June IR Day expectations.

查看收益報告第 5 頁經紀部門調整後的 EBITDAC 表。第二季調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 36.4%，年成長 334 個基點，高於我們 6 月份 IR Day 的預期。

Let me walk you through our typical bridge from last year. First, to report last year's 2024, second quarter earnings release, you'd see we reported back then adjusted EBITDAC margin of 33.1%. Now adjust that using current FX range, which for this quarter is next to nothing.

讓我帶您回顧我們去年的典型橋樑。首先，報告去年 2024 年第二季的收益報告，您會看到我們當時報告的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 33.1%。現在使用當前外匯範圍進行調整，對於本季來說，這幾乎為零。

So just assume adjusted EBITDAC margin levelized for FX would remain at 33.1%. Then organic growth of 5.3% gave us about 60 basis points of expansion this quarter. The rolling of impact of M&A used about 40 basis points. The impact of lower rates on fiduciary interest income used about 30 basis points. And then interest income on the cash for holding for Assured Partners added about 340 basis points of margin this quarter.

因此，假設外匯調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率將維持在 33.1%。5.3% 的有機成長率使我們本季實現了約 60 個基點的成長。併購影響的滾動採用了約40個基點。較低利率對信託利益收入的影響約為30個基點。本季度，Assured Partners 持有現金的利息收入增加了約 340 個基點的利潤率。

Follow that bridge, and it will get you to second quarter 2025 margin of 36.4%. That's great discipline by the team. As for the second half of the year, we don't see anything that causes us to change how we view underlying margin expansion potential. We call it organic greater than 4%. We should see some underlying margin expansion, than say at 6.5% organic, perhaps around 70 basis points of expansion and at 7.5% organic, around 90 basis points of expansion.

沿著這座橋走下去，2025 年第二季的利潤率將達到 36.4%。球隊紀律非常好。至於下半年，我們認為沒有任何事情會改變我們對潛在利潤擴張潛力的看法。我們稱之為有機物，含量大於 4%。我們應該會看到一些潛在的利潤率擴張，比如說，當有機利潤率達到 6.5% 時，大概會擴張 70 個基點；當有機利潤率達到 7.5% 時，大概會擴張 90 個基點。

I would say the same thing looking out towards '26. We have a long list that will continue to benefit our productivity and quality, including a more stable labor environment, increased returns from our technology spends on client-facing sales and service tools, our proven early AI successes, further centralization of back-office services, all on top of an industrial strength core operating system that can handle significantly more revenue with marginal costs.

展望 26 年，我也會說同樣的話。我們有一長串將繼續有利於提高我們的生產力和品質的措施，包括更穩定的勞動環境、我們在面向客戶的銷售和服務工具上的技術支出所帶來的更高回報、我們早期經過驗證的人工智能成功、後台服務的進一步集中化，所有這些都建立在一個工業強度的核心操作系統之上，該系統可以以邊際成本處理更多的收入。

So in a sound bite, in any organic environment, we still see significant opportunities to get better, faster and more productive and thereby provide higher quality offerings to our clients at lower cost. Sticking on page 5. Risk Management segment organic at 6.2%. As Pat said, that's a bit better than our expectations due to strong new business revenues from contracts that incepted in Q2. And for the year, we continue to see organic in that 6% to 8% range.

因此，在任何有機環境中，我們仍然可以看到重大機遇，可以變得更好、更快、更有效率，從而以更低的成本為客戶提供更高品質的產品。貼在第 5 頁。風險管理部門有機成長率為 6.2%。正如帕特所說，這比我們的預期要好一些，因為第二季簽訂的合約帶來了強勁的新業務收入。今年，我們預計有機成長率將繼續保持在 6% 至 8% 的範圍內。

Adjusted EBITDAC margin of 21% was better than our June IR Day expectations. And looking forward, we still see full year margins closer to 20.5%. Turning now to page 7 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. Compared to our June IR day expectations, the adjusted interest in banking line and the clean energy line, both were very close to our expectations.

調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 21%，優於我們 6 月份 IR Day 的預期。展望未來，我們仍預期全年利潤率將接近 20.5%。現在翻到財報的第 7 頁和公司部門快速表。與我們 6 月的 IR 日預期相比，調整後的銀行利率線和清潔能源利率線都非常接近我們的預期。

The adjusted acquisition cost line related to our typical tuck-in acquisitions came in a penny better and the adjusted corporate line was $0.04 below. That's solely due to a larger noncash unrealized FX remeasurement loss because of the dollar weakened in June. That has already mostly reversed here in July. So it just shows the noise that this can create in our corporate segment results.

與我們典型的補充收購相關的調整後收購成本線上漲了一美分，而調整後的公司線則下降了 0.04 美元。這完全是由於 6 月美元走弱導致非現金未實現外匯重估損失擴大所致。7 月份，這一情況已基本逆轉。因此，這只是表明這會對我們的公司部門業績產生影響。

So let's move now from the earnings release to the CFO commentary document we posted on our website. As a general statement, please read the headers and the footers on each page carefully on how numbers in this document include or exclude the impact of Assured Partners. Looking to page 3 and our typical modeling helpers, most of the second quarter '25 actual numbers were close to what we provided back in June.

現在讓我們從收益報告轉到我們在網站上發布的財務長評論文件。作為一般說明，請仔細閱讀每頁的頁首和頁腳，以了解本文檔中的數字如何包含或排除保證合作夥伴的影響。查看第 3 頁和我們典型的建模助手，25 年第二季的大部分實際數字都接近我們 6 月提供的數字。

One call out here, a small slip from amortization to depreciation that cost us about $0.01 of adjusted EPS. That's simply because we updated opening balance sheet numbers related to our recent acquisition. Finally, on this page, please look at the FX disclosures for the Brokerage and Risk Management segments as we refine your models.

這裡需要指出的是，從攤銷到折舊的小幅下滑導致我們調整後的每股收益損失了約 0.01 美元。這只是因為我們更新了與最近的收購相關的期初資產負債表數字。最後，在此頁面上，請查看經紀和風險管理部門的外匯揭露，以便我們可以完善您的模型。

Turning now to page 4 and the corporate segment outlook for the second half of '25. There's not much change here from what we provided eight weeks ago. So you can flip to page 5 to our tax credit carryovers as of June 30, about $685 million, which we get over the next few years. And recall that those -- that benefit flows through our cash flow statement, not through the P&L.

現在翻到第 4 頁，了解 25 年下半年的企業部門展望。與我們八週前提供的內容相比，沒有太大變化。因此，您可以翻到第 5 頁，查看我們截至 6 月 30 日的稅收抵免結轉額，約為 6.85 億美元，我們將在未來幾年內獲得這些金額。請記住，這些收益是透過我們的現金流量表而不是損益表流動的。

Also, no change to the value of these credits from the recent US OB3 tax bill. So that's good news. And while I'm at it, there isn't anything concerning to us and the other provisions of the new bill either. So that's good news, too.

此外，最近的美國 OB3 稅法案並未改變這些抵免的價值。這是個好消息。在我看來，這與我們以及新法案的其他條款都沒有任何關係。這也是個好消息。

Turning to page 6, the investment income table. We've updated our forecast to reflect current FX rates and changes in fiduciary cash balances. These numbers assume two future 25 basis point rate cuts, one in September and one in December. You also see that the interest income associated with Assured Partners financing runs through the third quarter in this table. If we close before that, obviously, that number would come down.

翻到第6頁，投資收益表。我們已更新預測，以反映當前外匯匯率和信託現金餘額的變化。這些數字假設未來兩次降息 25 個基點，一次在 9 月，一次在 12 月。您也可以看到，與 Assured Partners 融資相關的利息收入貫穿本表中的第三季。如果我們在此之前關閉，顯然這個數字會下降。

Shifting down the page to the rollover revenue table, only a small change from our June CFO commentary. That was due to a refinement and the seasonality of revenues from our second quarter '25 acquisitions, which are more heavily weighted towards first quarter versus second, third and fourth.

將頁面向下移動到滾動收入表，與我們 6 月的 CFO 評論相比只有很小的變化。這是由於我們 25 年第二季收購的收入經過了細化和季節性的影響，與第二、第三和第四季相比，第一季的收入更為重要。

And then looking forward, you'll see in the pinkish columns to the right. They include estimated revenues for brokerage M&A close to yesterday. So there's a standard reminder, you'll need to make a pick for future M&A. And also, you'll need to make a pick for when AP might close. The purple section on that page should help with that.

然後向前看，你會看到右邊的粉紅色柱子。其中包括截至昨日的經紀併購預計收入。因此，有一個標準的提醒，您需要為未來的併購做出選擇。此外，您還需要選擇 AP 關閉的時間。該頁面上的紫色部分應該會對此有所幫助。

All right. Moving to cash, capital management and M&A funding. Available cash on hand at June 30 was about $14 billion and no outstanding borrowings on our line of credit. With our strong second half cash flows, we are in a great position to fund another $2 billion of M&A here in '25 and it's looking like we would have about $5 billion in '26 in before using any stock, all while maintaining a solid investment-grade debt rating.

好的。轉向現金、資本管理和併購融資。截至 6 月 30 日，我們可用的現金約為 140 億美元，且我們的信用額度內沒有未償還借款。憑藉我們下半年強勁的現金流，我們完全有能力在 25 年為另外 20 億美元的併購提供資金，而且看起來，在使用任何股票之前，我們在 26 年將擁有約 50 億美元的資金，同時保持穩固的投資級債務評級。

Think about that for a minute, another $7 billion over the next 17 months. That should allow us to add another $600 million to $700 million of EBITDAC at a really nice arbitrage. And I'm bullish about this because for 20 years, we've invested in building the chassis that can support billions and billions more of revenue, provide world-class service and enable thousands and thousands of talented producers to win at the point of sale. So our M&A strategy has a fantastic outlook.

想想，未來 17 個月內又將投入 70 億美元。這應該使我們能夠以非常好的套利方式再增加 6 億至 7 億美元的 EBITDAC。我對此充滿信心，因為 20 年來，我們一直致力於打造能夠支持數十億收入、提供世界一流服務並讓成千上萬的優秀生產商在銷售點取得成功的底盤。因此我們的併購策略前景十分光明。

So a great quarter and first half in the books, and we have an exciting future with AP, organic growth, margin expansion, M&A opportunities, all driven by a talented team with a bedrock culture. Those are my comments. Back to you, Pat.

因此，這是一個偉大的季度和上半年，我們擁有令人興奮的未來，包括 AP、有機成長、利潤率擴大、併購機會，所有這些都由一支擁有基石文化的優秀團隊推動。以上就是我的評論。回到你身邊，帕特。

Thanks, Doug. Carl, do you want to open it up for questions, please?

謝謝，道格。卡爾，請問您願意回答問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

Hi, thanks. Good evening. My first question, what was the date that you guys sent the information, the HSR information to the DoJ and responded to that request. And did you get a timing agreement there or is it just a 30-day clock that starts once you gave them all the information.

你好，謝謝。晚安.我的第一個問題是，你們向司法部發送訊息、HSR 訊息並回應應該請求的日期是什麼時候。您是否在那裡達成了時間協議，或者僅僅是從您向他們提供所有資訊後開始的 30 天時間期限。

Well, Elyse, we aren't going to give out dates that we did this or did that. We are done responding to their second request, and we do continue to engage with them and respond to certain inquiries and so the review is ongoing. So I'm not going to get into any more real details about timing.

好吧，伊莉絲，我們不會透露我們做這做那的日期。我們已經回覆了他們的第二個請求，我們繼續與他們接觸並回應某些詢問，因此審查仍在進行中。所以我不會再談論有關時間的任何實際細節。

But our evaluation of where we stand, given the give and take back and forth and given the relationship as it will be in a position to close the transaction during the third quarter. We're very, very excited about it.

但是，考慮到雙方的相互讓步和關係，我們對所處位置的評估使我們能夠在第三季完成交易。我們對此感到非常非常興奮。

Thank you, and then my second question, you guys I'm just trying to get a sense with the 5% brokerage outlook for the back half, I guess, are you assuming a continuation of just pricing trends that we saw in Q2 and just the slowdown in property in June? And then if I recall from the June IR Day, you were talking about some benefits business that was getting pushed to the back half. Is that still the expectation? And then what quarter are you expecting that might come on?

謝謝，然後我的第二個問題是，大家好，我只是想了解一下下半年 5% 的經紀前景，我想，您是否認為我們在第二季度看到的價格趨勢和 6 月份房地產市場的放緩會延續下去？然後，如果我沒記錯的話，在六月的投資者關係日，您談到了一些被推遲到後半部分的福利業務。這仍然是我們的期望嗎？您預計這會在哪個季度發生？

All right, so yeah, so let me just reiterate what I said is we see the next two quarters in the [5%-plus] range, too, not to be -- not to quibble over picking at one single number. And yeah, I think that there's some risk and opportunity with the Life business. We'll see how that comes out. Obviously, sometimes those policies incept depending on interest rates, with what's happening with the Fed holding tight right now.

好的，是的，所以讓我重申一下，我們預計接下來的兩個季度也將處於 [5% 以上] 的範圍內，而不是 — — 不要對單一數字吹毛求疵。是的，我認為人壽保險業務確實存在一些風險和機會。我們將看看結果如何。顯然，有時這些政策的實施取決於利率，而聯準會目前正堅持執行利率政策。

Your guess might be as good as mine about whether they accelerate to close or whether they try to wait until a little longer, maybe into next year to actually incent those policies. So there is some dependency on those large and lumpy life case. Other things is those picks are based on what we're seeing in the property environment right now, what we're seeing in the casualty environment right now.

您可能和我一樣，都想知道他們是否會加速關閉，或者是否會等待更長時間，也許要等到明年才能真正激勵這些政策。因此，對那些大型且不均勻的生命案例有一定的依賴性。其他事情是，這些選擇是基於我們目前在房地產環境中看到的情況，以及我們目前在意外傷害環境中看到的情況。

And again, some of that's influenced a little bit by the timing that we had coming out of the first quarter with such a great first quarter. There's a little headwind to that in the third and the fourth quarters. Overall, though, our business, we're excited about it, and we think that we could be in that 6.5% and 7.5% range for the year.

再次強調，這在某種程度上受到了我們第一季表現如此出色的時機的影響。第三季和第四季度，情況出現了一些不利因素。總體而言，我們對我們的業務感到興奮，我們認為今年的成長率可能會達到 6.5% 至 7.5% 左右。

And we are heavier in the second quarter on property than we are the next two.

我們第二季在房地產方面的投入比接下來兩季更大。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman），TD Cowen。

Thank you. On the property, or just sort of an E&S writer say that we made the same point as you about June seeing a big drop off, maybe 20% to 30%. Is that baked into your guidance for the balance of the year, something along the magnitude of 20% to 30% property lines or is that just --

謝謝。關於房產，或者只是一位 E&S 作家說，我們和你一樣，都認為 6 月會大幅下降，大概 20% 到 30%。這是否包含在您對今年剩餘時間的指導中，大約是 20% 到 30% 的房地產線，還是只是--

That's a bad number. Whoever gave you that number, it's not what we're seeing. Absolutely not even close. So no, we didn't take any 20% or 30% decrease.

這是一個糟糕的數字。無論是誰給你這個數字，它都不是我們所看到的。絕對差遠了。所以，我們沒有採取 20% 或 30% 的降幅。

Right.

正確的。

Property in that 7% range, a little bit plus or minus on that in June. Property is a pretty heavy quarter during -- we say, in June. And so I think it's -- the other thing too is, you got to understand -- you got to always remember the difference between our revenues that could include exposure changes also. So as property rates might come off, if you talk peer rate, that might be one thing, but our customers are smart. When rates are dropping, they buy more cover.

房地產價格在 7% 左右，與 6 月相比略有上漲或下跌。六月是房地產市場相當繁忙的一個季度。所以我認為——另一件事是，你必須明白——你必須始終記住我們的收入之間的差異，其中可能也包括風險敞口的變化。因此，由於房地產利率可能會下降，如果你談論同行利率，那可能是一回事，但我們的客戶是聰明的。當利率下降時，他們會購買更多的保險。

So when we give you a number, when we see property down 7%, that would include rates going down, but exposures -- the consumption of that of those risks is going up.

因此，當我們給你一個數字時，當我們看到房地產價格下跌 7% 時，這將包括利率下降，但風險敞口——這些風險的消耗正在上升。

Got it. And the number I gave you might have been off because it might have been weighted more towards E&S and large risk.

知道了。我給你的數字可能有誤，因為它可能更偏向 E&S 和大風險。

That's a bad number. It's a bad number on large accounts, it's a bad number on middle accounts, it's a bad number of small accounts.

這是一個糟糕的數字。對於大帳戶來說，這是一個糟糕的數字；對於中型帳戶來說，這是一個糟糕的數字；對於小帳戶來說，這也是一個糟糕的數字。

Good to hear. And then maybe just shifting to your pipeline. I mean it sounds really exciting. You've done nine mergers already. No disruption from Assured Partners you can just kind of keep going at your regular pace.

很高興聽到這個消息。然後可能只是轉移到你的管道。我的意思是這聽起來確實令人興奮。您已經完成九次合併。不會受到 Assured Partners 的干擾，您可以按照自己的正常步調繼續前進。

I'll tell you what have to agree, if I was an outsider, I'd be pretty impressed. Our machine, and we're in just a great position. is driven by literally hundreds of people in the field around the world, talking to folks that they admire and working with people who have been hired by folks to sell their business.

我會告訴你必須同意什麼，如果我是局外人，我會非常印象深刻。我們的機器，以及我們所處的絕佳位置，是由世界各地該領域的數百人推動的，他們與他們欽佩的人交談，並與那些被人們僱用來銷售業務的人一起工作。

And we're on that short list virtually anybody that wants to take a look at possibly selling their enterprise, large or small. Our tuck-in acquisition business purchases are not all $50 million to $100 million. There's lots of [2, 5, 10] -- these are family businesses, and they're not PE roll-ups and they're looking for a home for their people.

幾乎任何想要考慮出售其企業（無論規模大小）的人都在這個名單上。我們的臨時收購業務並非全是 5,000 萬到 1 億美元。有許多 [2, 5, 10] — 這些都是家族企業，它們不是 PE 捲起企業，它們正在為員工尋找歸宿。

And I couldn't be proud of the fact that there were still at the high end of that checklist. You want to know is Gallagher still the kind of company I'd like to join. And you're exactly right to pick up on the fact that nine closures at the very time that they know we're doing the biggest transaction in our history. So it is a testament to --

但我並不為他們仍然位於清單的高端而感到自豪。你想知道加拉格爾是否仍然是我想加入的那種公司。您說得非常正確，他們知道我們正在進行歷史上最大的交易，但同時卻關閉了九家門市。所以這證明了--

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Charlie Lederer, BMO Capital Markets.

Charlie Lederer，BMO 資本市場。

Hey, thanks. On the RPC numbers that you gave, Pat, would you be able to -- I don't think I missed it or I may have missed it, but would you be able to give an all-in RPC number -- and I guess what would that look like with 3Q and 4Q mix instead of 2Q?

嘿，謝謝。關於您提供的 RPC 數字，Pat，您能否 - 我認為我沒有錯過，或者我可能錯過了，但您能否給出一個全包的 RPC 數字 - 我猜如果使用 3Q 和 4Q 組合而不是 2Q，它會是什麼樣子？

Well, it'd be about 4%.

嗯，大約是 4%。

Yeah, I think you're picking up on something trial. There seems to be a heavy focus on property, property for us in the course of a year, might be 35% of our business casualty, and we're seeing a steady march of casualty rates going forward. Recollection says that casualty is up about 8% and the mix and the weight of the business. So I think overall, you're seeing a market that's still mid-single digits going up in terms of rates.

是的，我認為你正在嘗試一些事情。我們似乎非常關注房地產，對我們來說，一年中房地產可能占我們業務損失的 35%，我們看到未來損失率穩定上升。回憶起來，傷亡人數上升了約 8%，而且業務的組成和比重也上升了。因此我認為總體而言，你會看到市場利率仍然以中等個位數的速度上漲。

So you're right to snip out the difference between those two and -- but the combined number in that mid-single digits number is still a spot for the -- in the second part of your question, we see that happening for the rest of the year. We are just in the beginning of wind season. So let's see what happens here. Over the next three months, that could change the market.

因此，你正確地消除了這兩者之間的差異——但中間個位數的合計數字仍然是——在你問題的第二部分，我們看到這種情況將在今年剩餘時間內發生。我們正處於風季的開始。那麼讓我們看看這裡發生了什麼。在接下來的三個月裡，這可能會改變市場。

We're at $80 billion of CAT losses, the biggest first half of the year ever in the history of our business. It's only been five months ago that the tragic California fires were there. I think carriers still have to digest that and how that's impacting the reserves still. There's still development to come out of that. So between the casualty rates still marching higher, property is -- you're at the plate taking a swing at it. We'll see what happens for the rest of the year.

我們的 CAT 損失高達 800 億美元，這是我們業務歷史上上半年最大的損失。距離加州發生慘烈火災僅過了五個月。我認為承運商仍需消化這一點，並了解這將如何影響儲備。這方面還有待進一步發展。因此，在傷亡率不斷上升的情況下，房地產——你正處於危險之中。我們將看看今年剩餘時間會發生什麼。

Got it, thanks. And I guess, the [$4.7 million] in base organic, are you expecting acceleration off of that in the back half of the year or I guess, are you expecting supplemental and contingents to kind of drive organic a little, yeah.

明白了，謝謝。我想，對於基本有機收入 [470 萬美元]，您是否預計下半年會加速增長，或者您是否預計補充和應急費用會在一定程度上推動有機收入的增長，是的。

I kind of look at base and supplementals together and not pushing like 4.9% or 5%. So right in there, what we're seeing going forward, the contingents I think the carriers are doing well. We do well in the environment where carriers do well. So I think that it's nice to see that as this base and supplement together still around 5%, supplementals, maybe topping that up a little bit. So I think you're reading through that right.

我將基礎和補充放在一起考慮，而不是強制推行 4.9% 或 5% 這樣的數字。因此，就我們目前所看到的而言，我認為航母的隊伍表現良好。在承運商表現良好的環境中，我們也表現良好。因此，我認為很高興看到基礎和補充量加起來仍然在 5% 左右，補充量可能會稍微增加一點。所以我認為你讀得沒錯。

But we're holding in there. Our fee accounts are doing well, too. So it wouldn't surprise me that that's the same number in the next three quarters to next two quarters also.

但我們堅持住了。我們的費用帳戶也表現良好。因此，如果未來三個季度到接下來兩個季度的數字相同，我不會感到驚訝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Hey, good afternoon. So I think, Doug, as you're going through in rapid fire formation in your comments, you alluded to the opportunities that you have to expand margins in all type of organic revenue environments. And I think it's particularly interesting as we think about next year. So -- could you go back and sort of unpack some of those comments and talk about the drivers, not for this year, but what you're seeing for '26 and beyond?

嘿，下午好。所以我認為，道格，正如你在評論中快速闡述的那樣，你提到了在所有類型的有機收入環境中擴大利潤率的機會。當我們考慮明年時我認為這特別有趣。那麼——您能否回過頭來，對其中一些評論進行一些解讀，並談談驅動因素，不是今年的因素，而是您對 26 年及以後的因素的看法？

Well, listen, here's thing how would I promise this, and I'll give you a little bit more detail in September when we do our IR Day on some of those exact points. But in a nutshell, there is a culture of change inside of Gallagher that every day people are waking up and getting after making ourselves better. We know that we've got to get more productive every day.

好吧，聽著，我該如何承諾這一點，我們將在 9 月的 IR Day 上就其中一些具體要點向您提供更詳細的資訊。但簡而言之，加拉格爾內部存在著一種改變的文化，每天人們醒來後都會努力讓自己變得更好。我們知道我們必須每天提高效率。

We've got some terrific AI projects that are underway that are starting to show early success. We now have 15,000 associates that we can use that are in our centers of excellence that provide good value to us. They are the early founders of standardization, centralization that allows us to deploy AI into that information.

我們正在進行一些出色的人工智慧項目，並開始取得早期成功。我們現在有 15,000 名員工，他們都在我們的卓越中心，為我們提供了良好的價值。他們是標準化、集中化的早期創始人，這使我們能夠將人工智慧部署到資訊中。

The technologies we're developing now have kind of toggled from hardening our environment against cyber and against just uptime and run times. They're now really enabling the business. The presentation layers that we're providing are producers that show customers like you bought this and adviser because it's a list of -- that keeps going on and on and on.

我們目前正在開發的技術已經從強化網路環境轉變為僅僅加強正常運作時間和運行時間。他們現在確實在推動業務發展。我們提供的演示層是向客戶展示您購買了此商品和顧問的製作人，因為它是一個不斷不斷的清單。

And every time you think the list is going to get smaller of opportunities to get better, it just grows. And so we've got a runway for years of how we can make ourselves better. And the acquisition pipeline feeds that because we're putting more revenue over a cost structure that doesn't change dramatically.

每當你想著進步的機會越來越少時，它卻越來越大。因此，我們多年來一直致力於探索如何使自己變得更好。而收購管道滿足了這項需求，因為我們將更多的收入置於不會發生重大變化的成本結構之上。

All right. I'll wait until September for more detail. I guess I want to go back to the Assured Partners transaction. I think the last time we were talking about -- or you were talking about, I should say. You mentioned or highlighted that you had to suspend I think, 11 of the 13 work streams on the integration process. And with the timing with a little bit more visibility on the timing, have you kick-started those some streams or processes for integration back up?

好的。我將等到九月才能了解更多詳細資訊。我想我想回到 Assured Partners 交易。我想上次我們正在談論——或者我應該說您正在談論。您提到或強調，我認為您必須暫停整合流程中 13 個工作流程中的 11 個。隨著時間的更加清晰，您是否已經啟動了一些流程或流程以進行重新整合？

I guess ultimately, what I'm getting here is we previously mapped out some revenue and margin assumptions for the acquisition -- and just wondering if because of this delay, it's going to cause a delay and the recognition of some of the benefits as we start to integrate that operation at the end of this year or next year?

我想最終，我在這裡得到的是，我們之前為這次收購制定了一些收入和利潤率假設——我只是想知道，由於這次延遲，當我們在今年年底或明年開始整合該業務時，是否會導致延遲並確認一些好處？

I think, Greg, it is fair to say we had to suspend some actual work streams that were things like what producers would work with what other producers on accounts, what branches would be sharing once you're there -- but we've had a lot of time, and we have been allowed at the senior levels to continue to have dialogue to work on the plan here.

格雷格，我認為，公平地說，我們不得不暫停一些實際的工作流程，例如哪些製作人會與帳戶上的其他製作人合作，你到達那裡後哪些分支機構會共享——但我們已經有很多時間了，而且我們被允許在高層繼續進行對話，以製定計劃。

And so it's been -- we followed the rules very closely. We've had a longer period of time to review this, and we've been allowed to do more integration planning just not getting into some of the details of some of these work streams.

事實也是如此——我們嚴格遵守規則。我們有更長的時間來審查這個問題，我們被允許做更多的整合規劃，只是沒有涉及一些工作流程的細節。

So I'd say that we're really ready to hit the ground running. I think that if you recall when we announced this acquisition, we're very proud of the fact that we said in its first year would be accretive, still maintain that. I think we're going to see a bump in opportunities to sell stuff in geographies, in places that we have not been represented.

所以我想說我們真的已經準備好要開始行動了。我想，如果你還記得我們宣布這次收購的時候，我們會非常自豪地說，第一年就會實現增值，我們仍然堅持這一點。我認為，我們將會看到在那些我們尚未設立代表的地區銷售產品的機會大幅增加。

Remember, only 94% of these acquisitions done by AP, we didn't have a chance at. So these are fresh new bodies that are coming on our team. It seems like they're very excited, and we're looking forward to getting going.

請記住，在美聯社完成的這些收購中，只有 94% 是我們沒有機會的。這些都是即將加入我們團隊的新成員。看起來他們非常興奮，我們也期待出發。

Yeah, and Greg, just to clarify, I think you had your numbers backwards. I mean there are 12 or 13 work streams -- and we really had to spend two of them or three of them or something like that. So you -- I think if you spoke backwards on that, what I got to say, like Pat said, is that we've used this time to get ready when things happen, if we're delayed seven months and closing, 8. Months in closing, maybe we lost two or three months in that journey, to be honest, we didn't lose the entire time.

是的，格雷格，需要澄清的是，我認為你的數字是倒著的。我的意思是，有 12 或 13 個工作流程——我們確實必須花費其中的兩個或三個或類似的時間。所以你——我想如果你反過來說，我要說的是，就像帕特說的，我們利用這段時間為事情的發生做好準備，如果我們被推遲了七個月，並且關閉了八個月。最後幾個月，也許我們在那段旅程中浪費了兩三個月的時間，說實話，我們並沒有浪費全部的時間。

So we're still bullish on the opportunity put two great companies together and get a lot of benefit out of it.

因此，我們仍然看好將兩家偉大的公司合併並從中獲得許多利益的機會。

Got it, thanks for the clarification on that too, Doug.

明白了，也感謝你對此的澄清，Doug。

Jing Li, KBW.

李靜，KBW。

Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is on pricing. You mentioned that casualty some lines and some line getting higher. Just curious any specific lines that you want to call out. Want to know the mix that drives -- and casualty line pricing like 8% in 2Q, which is in line with 1Q, which look pretty steady. Do you expect case rates going to be still bumpy when it increases volume here?

你好。晚安.感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於定價的。您提到，有些線路的傷亡人數正在增加。只是好奇您想調出哪些具體的線路。想知道推動的組合——以及第二季的傷亡險定價，例如 8%，與第一季一致，看起來相當穩定。當這裡的病例數增加時，您是否預期發病率仍然會不穩定？

All right. Let me try to answer a little bit of that right off of my script. I think we're seeing property down seven casualty overall up. We did unpack that. General liabilities up about 4%. Commercial auto continues to be up 7% and umbrella, up 11% that tells you a lot about what's going on in the underlying business of underwriters.

好的。讓我嘗試根據我的腳本來回答一點這個問題。我認為我們看到財產損失總額下降了七成，傷亡人數總體上升。我們確實解開了它。一般負債增加約4%。商業汽車保險持續上漲 7%，繖形保險上漲 11%，充分說明了承銷商基礎業務的現狀。

Package, which is packaged together with other property type covers, is up 5%. But D&O interestingly enough, is down 3%. Workers comp is up about 1 point and overall personal lines are up [7]. I think that's about as unpacked as we could get for you by line today, and I think that's pretty good data. What I'm seeing in the casualty market is a continuing caution as we talked about under our reinsurance report.

與其他財產類型保險一起打包的套餐上漲了 5%。但有趣的是，D&O 下降了 3%。工傷賠償上漲約 1 個百分點，個人賠償總額上漲[7]。我認為這是我們今天能為您逐行解讀出的信息，而且我認為這是相當不錯的數據。正如我們在再保險報告中談到的，我看到傷亡險市場持續保持謹慎。

Carriers from a reinsurance perspective are still concerned about prior years. And when they look at that and look forward they're not willing to throw the numbers out to some additional credits that caused that problem from the past to get bigger. And I think if you add that to Doug's comments, I mean, we're on storm away from the market turning in property.

從再保險角度來看，保險公司仍然擔心前幾年的情況。當他們審視這個問題並展望未來時，他們不願意將這些數字拋給一些額外的信貸，因為這些信貸導致過去的問題變得更加嚴重。我認為，如果你把這一點與 Doug 的評論結合起來，我的意思是，我們正處於房地產市場轉型風暴之中。

And that -- so you're in a really interesting time in the market. These carriers are very good at knowing where they are or aren't making money. And they're very determined to try to keep their revenue coming in above loss cost. So it's a good time for us to be talking to clients about all this because they're confused, to be honest with you.

所以，現在的市場正處於一個非常有趣的時期。這些業者非常清楚自己在哪裡賺錢或不賺錢。他們決心努力使收入高於損失成本。所以現在是我們與客戶討論這一切的好時機，因為說實話，他們感到困惑。

Got it. Thank you. My second question is on the E&S market. One of your competitors kind of mentioned, seeing some early signs of business coming back on to the mid-market? Are you seeing any similar trends or what are you expecting for here?

知道了。謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於 E&S 市場。您的一位競爭對手提到過，看到一些業務回歸中端市場的早期跡象嗎？您是否看到任何類似的趨勢或您對此有何期待？

Yeah, I would tell you this. First of all, every retail broker in the world has game plan number one in a market like this, and that's to reinstitute a direct play to take the wholesale commission away from the wholesaler. Now that's a bold statement. There are wholesalers that have helped you write accounts, you're going to work together. So it's not -- you can't say every single account. But that is clearly a strategy that a retailer will use to not have the split commissions.

是的，我會告訴你這個。首先，在這樣的市場中，世界上每個零售經紀商都有首要的計劃，那就是重新建立直接業務，從批發商手中奪走批發佣金。這是一個大膽的聲明。還有批發商幫你寫賬，你們一起合作。所以，你不能說出每一個帳戶。但這顯然是零售商為了避免分成而採取的策略。

And we're actually seeing in our submissions. Our submission count is actually up. So when it comes to opportunities, we're still having a lot of opportunities to -- that's obviously in our wholesale and E&S market.

我們實際上在提交的內容中看到了這一點。我們的提交數量實際上已經增加了。因此，說到機遇，我們仍然有很多機會——這顯然是在我們的批發和 E&S 市場。

Now also, there's a differentiation between programs and MGA-type lines of coverage where you've got something that's in an underwriting environment that's access and surplus. Those are growing nicely right now. They're continuing to grow. So it is a mixed bag. But as you saw in our results, our excess surplus in specialty business was up 7% at a very strong quarter. So this is not like all the businesses returning to the primaries. It's a logical balance.

現在，計劃和 MGA 類型的承保範圍之間也存在區別，在承保環境中，您可以獲得一些訪問權限和盈餘。它們現在長得很好。它們還在繼續成長。所以，這是一個混合體。但正如您在我們的業績中所看到的，我們專業業務的超額盈餘在一個非常強勁的季度增長了 7%。所以這並不像所有企業都重返初選。這是一種邏輯平衡。

Got it. Thank you so much.

知道了。太感謝了。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey, good evening, I just wanted to confirm that in the outlook for a 5%-plus organic growth in brokerage in the back half of the year that you guys are assuming a continued 7% decline in property RPC? And then maybe if you could help us think through some of the sensitivity around that if pricing came in maybe a little bit better or if it came in maybe a little bit worse what sort of impact that might have to organic in the second half?

嘿，晚上好，我只是想確認一下，在預計下半年經紀業務有機增長 5% 以上的前提下，你們是否假設房地產 RPC 將繼續下降 7%？然後，也許您可以幫助我們思考一些敏感問題，如果定價可能稍微好一點或稍微差一點，這可能會對下半年的有機產品產生什麼樣的影響？

Right. So yeah, on the first part of the question, we're assuming property pricing that happened in June continuing through the year. But again, we're not as heavily weighted to property in the second half of the year. Second thing, I think the sensitivity in it, I think that we lose 40 basis points of organic every time there's a 2% drop in rates without any changes in -- including increases in exposure that would come along with that.

正確的。是的，關於問題的第一部分，我們假設 6 月的房地產價格會持續全年。但下半年我們不會再過度投資房地產。第二件事，我認為其中的敏感性是，每當利率下降 2% 時，我們就會損失 40 個基點，而沒有任何變化 - 包括隨之而來的風險敞口增加。

So maybe down a little bit more because of the changes in rates, but then because of increased consumption and people opting back in, I think, the net impact is about 40 basis points or 2% of drop on net-net property.

因此，由於利率變化，可能下降幅度還會更大，但由於消費增加和人們重新選擇，我認為淨影響約為 40 個基點，即淨房地產下降 2%。

Got it. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just following up on that. I think you said in June, -- is that different than the down 7%? Or is that more than the down 7%? Because I think you said 5% in April and May, and then it was -- it sounds like June was definitely worse than 7%. Yes, maybe being 7% for the quarter.

知道了。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是跟進這一點。我想您在六月就說過—這與下降 7% 有什麼不同嗎？或者說降幅超過 7% 嗎？因為我認為您說過 4 月和 5 月的成長率是 5%，但聽起來 6 月的成長率肯定比 7% 還要糟糕。是的，本季可能為 7%。

Yeah, maybe June, it was [8% or 9%], something like that by the time it averages. But July is we're not seeing that in July.

是的，也許 6 月的平均成長率是 [8% 或 9%]，類似這樣的數字。但七月我們並沒有看到這種情況。

Got it. Okay, but you're assuming like the [8%, 9%] in in the outlook going forward.

知道了。好的，但您假設未來的前景是 [8%、9%]。

I think there's some moderation as you get halfway binding property business in the middle of the storm season can have -- is not going to get quite the cut that you get it in earlier. So let's see what happens during the storm season here. But I think the carriers have -- they've got a target of what they want to write and I think they may have -- they're going to hit that harder in the May and June time frame because you get seven months of the unearned premium.

我認為會有一些緩和，因為在風暴季節中期，房地產業務可能會受到一定程度的約束——不會像之前那樣受到太大的影響。那麼讓我們看看這裡的暴風雨季節會發生什麼。但我認為承運商 - 他們已經有了他們想要寫的目標，我認為他們可能 - 他們將在 5 月和 6 月的時間範圍內更加努力地實現這一目標，因為你獲得了 7 個月的未賺取保費。

Right. No, that's fair. Thank you. And then for my second question, and I know it's early, but just wondering just given all the dynamics within the different lines, I think you had said up 4% to 6% ex property and then obviously, everything that's going on in property. Any sort of early thoughts in terms of how you're thinking about organic and brokerage in 2026?

正確的。不，這很公平。謝謝。然後是我的第二個問題，我知道現在還為時過早，但我只是想知道，考慮到不同線路內的所有動態，我認為您說過上漲 4% 到 6%，不包括房地產，然後顯然還有房地產中發生的一切。您對 2026 年的有機和經紀業務有何早期想法？

Yeah, we're working through that right now. I think that our reinsurance business is still killing it. I think there's still opportunities there. Our benefit business in the first quarter was very good. So on an overall year in and year out basis, maybe where we closed this year, I think we got a shot at that next year. Wherever we end up this year, we probably could repeat that next year.

是的，我們現在正在努力解決這個問題。我認為我們的再保險業務仍然很成功。我認為那裡仍有機會。我們第一季的福利業務非常好。因此，從總體來看，也許我們今年的成績與明年的成績相同，我認為我們明年還有機會。無論我們今年取得什麼成果，明年我們很可能還會重複這個過程。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Yeah, thank you. Good afternoon.

是的，謝謝。午安.

Hey, Mark.

嘿，馬克。

Pat, if I heard you properly, I think you said workers' comp was up [1%] -- and if I'm looking at it right, it was up 5% last quarter. I know you said job growth may not be as robust and maybe there's a little less wage inflation. But anything else impacting that number?

派特，如果我沒聽錯的話，我想你說的工傷賠償金上漲了 [1%]——如果我沒看錯的話，上個季度上漲了 5%。我知道您說過就業成長可能不會那麼強勁，薪資通膨可能會稍微低一些。但還有其他因素影響這個數字嗎？

I'm not seeing it, Mark. I think comp is surprising to me in the last 10 years has been pretty flattish. So I wouldn't read too much into that. we can unpack it every single quarter, but it's in a pretty tight range of not much movement. This is a mutation of falling through the floor. And the second -- in the previous quarter was not an indication of a start to run up.

我沒看到，馬克。我認為令我驚訝的是，在過去 10 年裡，公司的表現一直比較穩定。所以我不會對此進行過多的解讀。我們可以每個季度都對其進行解讀，但它處於相當狹窄的範圍內，沒有太大的變動。這是從地板墜落的變異。而上一季的第二季並沒有出現成長的跡象。

The benefits organic, I think you said it was maybe a little bit faster than the overall US retail. Is that right? Do you have a specific number on that?

有機效益，我想您說過它可能比美國整體零售業快一點。是嗎？您有具體的數字嗎？

We didn't provide that, but it might be 2 points better, maybe a,1.5 points better.

我們沒有提供這一點，但可能會好 2 分，也許好 1.5 分。

Okay, very good. Thank you.

好的，非常好。謝謝。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Hey, good afternoon. I think I heard you say a 5% organic in reinsurance and that's relative to some really strong quarters in recent history. Can you maybe break down just any impact on pricing on that organic number? And would also be interested in hearing maybe any benefit you saw from ILS activity.

嘿，下午好。我想我聽到您說過再保險的有機成長率為 5%，這是相對於近期歷史上一些非常強勁的季度而言的。能否詳細分析該有機數字對定價的影響？並且也有興趣聽聽您從 ILS 活動中看到的任何好處。

In the second quarter, not much benefit from ILS. We've had a -- relatively speaking, it's not a big quarter on reinsurance. And just ask your question about the reinsurance 5% again, maybe I didn't hear you right.

第二季度，ILS 的收益並不大。相對而言，本季我們的再保險業務表現並不突出。再問一次關於再保險 5% 的問題，也許我沒有聽清楚。

Effectively. Just any impact from pricing that was a headwind to that 5%?

有效地。定價是否會對這 5% 造成不利影響？

Maybe a little bit, but we're seeing some -- the carriers are realizing there's some opportunities here to increase their purchase of reinsurance. So that more than offset that.

可能只是一點點，但是我們看到了一些——承運商意識到這裡有一些機會來增加他們的再保險購買量。因此，這足以抵消這一點。

Great. And then I think in the script, you mentioned some early AI successes. Could you maybe elaborate a bit on those?

偉大的。然後我認為在劇本中你提到了一些早期的人工智慧成功案例。能否詳細說明一下這些？

Well, listen, I told Greg, I wasn't going to talk about it until September, so I wouldn't be very fair of me to go ahead and to listen, we're doing some really -- Gallagher Bassett is really having some terrific results and their claim submissions.

好吧，聽著，我告訴格雷格，我要到九月份才會談論這件事，所以如果我繼續說下去並聽取意見，這對我不太公平，我們正在做一些真正的事情——加拉格爾巴塞特確實取得了一些了不起的成果，他們的索賠提交也確實如此。

We're starting to do really well with policy review. On the back office side, we're starting to get some momentum on kind of what I call near AI on bank reconciliations, et cetera, which we still have a lot of those going on. And so there's a smattering of business, but the big things that stand out right now are claim summarization and policy review.

我們在政策審查方面開始做得非常好。在後台方面，我們開始在銀行對帳等方面的近乎人工智慧方面獲得一些發展勢頭，我們還有很多這樣的工作正在進行中。因此，有一些業務，但目前突出的大事是索賠總結和政策審查。

Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.

凱蒂·薩克斯，自主研究。

Hi, thank you for squeezing me in. I think I heard you guys mention 7% growth on E&S business in the quarter. Would you be able to break that down a little bit further, thinking about the difference between open brokerage and MGA's?

你好，謝謝你邀請我。我想我聽到你們提到本季 E&S 業務成長了 7%。您能否進一步細分一下，思考一下開放經紀和 MGA 之間的差異？

Yeah, I think the faster grower of the two MGA's programs and open market is clearly the MGA business. I don't have a stat ready off the top of my head. Let me just look down the table here.

是的，我認為 MGA 的兩個項目和開放市場中成長更快的顯然是 MGA 業務。我腦子裡還沒準備好任何統計數據。讓我看一下這裡的表格。

Yeah, listen, I can tell you, as is that the binding and is up towards double digit. And the issue you've got to look at an open brokerage is the submissions are up, but because some of the renewable premiums are flat, it's primarily a property quarter. For me to say that it was flat, that might be a little unfair without context that we're still getting tons of emissions going into the open brokerage spot.

是的，聽著，我可以告訴你，這就是約束，而且已經達到兩位數了。而你必須關注的問題是，在開放的經紀業務中，提交量有所增加，但由於部分可續保費持平，因此這主要是房地產季度。對我來說，說它是平的，這可能有點不公平，因為我們仍然有大量的排放進入開放的經紀領域。

Thank you. I appreciate the additional context. And then just on thinking about the closure of the Assured Partners acquisition. I can appreciate that you don't have a whole lot of additional detail for us. But is there any changing in your thinking about the need to potentially divest some parts of that business or offer other remedies in order to get the deal over the finish line?

謝謝。我很欣賞這個補充背景。然後就考慮完成 Assured Partners 收購事宜。我可以理解您沒有向我們提供太多額外的細節。但是，您是否改變了想法，認為有必要剝離部分業務或提供其他補救措施，以完成交易？

Absolutely not.

絕對不是。

Excellent to hear. Thank you.

很高興聽到這個消息。謝謝。

Thanks, Katie. Okay. I think that's our last question. I've got just a quick thank you for everybody for joining us. I know it's late this afternoon. I appreciate it. We feel we had a great first half of 2025. Most importantly, I want to thank the 59,000 colleagues that we have for all their hard work. Thank you. And to all our clients around the globe, we're proud to be your trusted advisers. Thank you, and thank all of you for joining us.

謝謝，凱蒂。好的。我想這是我們的最後一個問題。我只想快速地感謝大家的參與。我知道今天下午已經很晚了。我很感激。我們覺得 2025 年上半年過得很愉快。最重要的是，我要感謝我們 59,000 位同事的辛勤工作。謝謝。對於我們全球的所有客戶，我們很自豪能夠成為您值得信賴的顧問。謝謝大家，也謝謝大家的參與。

Have a great evening.

祝您有個愉快的夜晚。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。享受你剩餘的一天。