Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meanings of the securities laws.

如果您有任何異議，可以立即斷開連接。本次電話會議期間發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。

The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的資訊或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司最新 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的有關前瞻性陳述和風險因素部分的資訊。

In addition, for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

此外，有關本次電話會議中討論的非GAAP指標的調節表以及有關這些指標的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的盈利報告和其他資料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Jay Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很榮幸地向大家介紹傑伊·帕特里克·加拉格爾二世，他是亞瑟·J·加拉格爾公司的董事長兼首席執行官。加拉格爾先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter '25 earnings call. On the call with me today is Howell Hall, our CFO; as well as members of the management team.

謝謝。各位下午好，感謝各位參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天和我一起通話的是我們的財務長豪威爾·霍爾，以及管理團隊的成員。

Before I start, I'd like to acknowledge the damage caused by Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean. Our thoughts are with all those impacted, including our own Gallagher colleagues, our team of experts have been mobilized and are on the ground helping our clients and colleagues.

在開始之前，我想先對颶風梅麗莎在加勒比海地區造成的破壞表示哀悼。我們與所有受影響的人同在，包括我們自己的 Gallagher 同事，我們的專家團隊已經動員起來，正在現場幫助我們的客戶和同事。

Moving to our financial performance. We had a terrific and obviously very active third quarter. Our two-pronged revenue growth strategy, that's organic and M&A, delivered revenue growth of 20%. In fact, over the last 30 quarters, we've delivered double-digit top line growth 26x.

接下來我們來看財務業績。我們第三季表現出色，而且顯然非常活躍。我們採取了有機成長和併購相結合的雙管齊下的營收成長策略，實現了 20% 的營收成長。事實上，在過去的 30 個季度裡，我們的營收實現了兩位數的成長，成長了 26 倍。

This is now our 19th straight quarter of double-digit growth. Clearly, our relentless client-centric team-driven and welcoming culture is thriving. Underlying that headline revenue growth, we posted 4.8% organic, grew adjusted EBITDAC 22% and expanded adjusted EBITDAC margins by 26 basis points, demonstrating we are getting substantial benefits of scale and the value delivered by our strategy of constantly focusing on improving our productivity while delivering our high-quality services.

這已經是我們連續第19季實現兩位數成長了。顯然，我們以客戶為中心、團隊協作、熱情友善的企業文化正在蓬勃發展。在營收成長的背後，我們實現了 4.8% 的有機成長，調整後 EBITDAC 成長了 22%，調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率提高了 26 個基點，這表明我們正在獲得規模效益，並且透過不斷專注於提高生產力並提供高品質服務的策略，實現了價值。

EPS for our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted GAAP EPS of $1.76 and adjusted EPS of $2.87. That would have been $0.22 higher had we levelized for the intra-quarter revenue seasonality related to AssuredPartners that we closed on August 18. Doug will unpack this timing aberration in his comments.

就我們合併後的經紀和風險管理業務而言，我們公佈的GAAP每股收益為1.76美元，調整後每股收益為2.87美元。如果我們剔除8月18日完成的AssuredPartners交易帶來的季度內營收季節性波動，每股盈餘將高出0.22美元。道格將在評論中詳細解釋這一時間上的偏差。

The punchline is our business continues to shine and the early days of the AssuredPartners folks coming together with the Gallagher team is off to a terrific start. Already, we're selling together. We're showing that we are better by being together.

結論是，我們的業務持續蓬勃發展，AssuredPartners 的員工與 Gallagher 團隊的合作開局非常順利。我們已經開始合作銷售了。我們用行動證明，團結就是力量。

Moving to the results on a segment basis, starting with the Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 22%. Organic growth was 4.5%. Relative to our September IR Day commentary, we did see a little pressure on contingents and a few large life insurance cases shifted out of the third quarter.

接下來，我們將依業務板塊逐一分析結果，先來看看經紀業務板塊。報告顯示，營收成長了22%。有機成長率為4.5%。相對於我們 9 月的投資者關係日評論，我們確實看到或有事項面臨一些壓力，一些大型人壽保險案件從第三季度轉移出去。

Adjusted EBITDAC margin headline shows flat year over year at 33.5%. But when we exclude merger and acquisition interest income, it shows underlying margin expansion of 60 basis points. Doug will give you a bridge from last year. That's terrific work by the team to stay vigilant in our relentless pursuit of being more productive every single day.

經調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率與前一年持平，為 33.5%。但若剔除併購利息收入，基本利潤率將擴大 60 個基點。道格會給你一座去年的橋。團隊每天都在不懈地努力，力求提高效率，他們的工作非常出色。

Let me provide you with some highlights behind our Brokerage segment organic. Within our retail operations, we delivered 5% organic overall within PC with US up more than 7%, international flat, driven by less renewal premium increases and lower contingents. Employee Benefits posted around 1% organic, driven by lower-than-expected large life cases.

讓我來為您介紹一下我們經紀業務板塊自然增長的一些亮點。在我們的零售業務中，個人電腦整體實現了 5% 的有機成長，其中美國成長超過 7%，國際市場持平，這主要得益於續保費成長減少和意外損失降低。員工福利業務自然成長約 1%，主要原因是大型人壽保險案件數量低於預期。

Shifting to our wholesale and specialty businesses. In total, we delivered organic of 5% with the US outperforming our international businesses slightly. As for reinsurance, it's a relatively small quarter and organic here was in the high single digits. And while not in our organic growth numbers, AP's third quarter organic was 5%.

轉向我們的批發和特許業務。整體而言，我們的有機成長率為 5%，其中美國市場的表現略優於我們的國際業務。至於再保險，這是一個相對較小的季度，而且這裡的自然成長只有個位數。雖然沒有計入我們的有機成長數據，但AP第三季的有機成長率為5%。

That really shows you that a terrific sales-driven culture is joining our team. So we continue to deliver organic growth across retail, wholesale and reinsurance.

這充分說明，我們團隊正在融入優秀的銷售驅動文化。因此，我們在零售、批發和再保險領域繼續實現有機成長。

Let me provide some thoughts on the PC insurance pricing environment. Overall, global insurance renewal premium changes remain in positive territory, and we continue to see more carrier competition across property classes, particularly shared and layered programs and cat exposed risks, resulting in renewal premium decreases. With that said, carriers continue to push for increases across most casualty classes, which are more than offsetting the property decreases.

我想就個人電腦保險定價環境談談我的看法。整體而言，全球保險續保保費變化仍處於積極狀態，我們繼續看到各財產類別（特別是共享和分層計劃以及巨災風險）的保險公司競爭加劇，導致續保保費下降。儘管如此，保險公司仍在努力提高大多數意外險種的保費，遠遠抵消了財產保險保費的下降。

Let me provide a further breakdown on our third quarter global insurance renewal premium changes, which includes both rate and exposure by line of business. Property down 5%. Casualty lines up 6% overall, including general liability of 4%; commercial auto up 5% and umbrella up 8%; US casualty lines are up 8% and and that increase has been consistent over the past 12 quarters, suggesting domestic carriers are recognizing continued pressure; package up 5%; D&O down 2%, we think perhaps close to bottoming out; workers' comp up 1 point; and personal lines of 6%.

讓我進一步細分一下我們第三季全球保險續保費的變化情況，其中包括按業務線劃分的費率和風險敞口。房價下跌5%。整體而言，意外險業務增長 6%，其中一般責任險增長 4%；商業汽車險增長 5%，傘險增長 8%；美國意外險業務增長 8%，並且這一增長在過去 12 個季度中一直保持穩定，表明國內保險公司已意識到持續的壓力；綜合險增長 5%；董事及 16% 保障責任下降 2%，我們認為

And so while properties down 5%, many lines are still seeing increases. In fact, global renewal premium change, excluding property remains around 4% with good accounts getting some premium relief and accounts with poor loss experience seeing greater increases.

因此，儘管整體房價下跌了 5%，但許多房價仍然上漲。事實上，除財產險外，全球續保保費變化仍保持在 4% 左右，其中保費狀況良好的客戶獲得了一定的保費減免，而損失記錄較差的客戶則面臨更大的保費增長。

Looking at differences in renewal premium changes by client size, we continue to see some bifurcation. For middle market and smaller clients generating less than $250,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were up about 3%. For larger clients generating more than $250,000 of revenue renewal premiums were down 1%. So many of the market trends that we have been highlighting for the past few quarters persist today.

從不同規模客戶續保保費變化的差異來看，我們仍然可以看到一些分化現象。對於年收入低於 25 萬美元的中小型客戶，續保保費上漲了約 3%。對於年收入超過 25 萬美元的大客戶，續保保費下降了 1%。過去幾季我們一直強調的許多市場趨勢至今仍然存在。

As for the reinsurance market, a very small quarter for us, looking towards January 1 renewals, the industry remains healthy. There's adequate capacity to meet expected demand, coverages continue to favor reinsurance buyers while casualty reinsurance dynamics are more stable with continued caution for US risks.

至於再保險市場，對我們來說這是一個很小的季度，展望 1 月 1 日的續保，該行業仍然保持健康。現有充足的承保能力可以滿足預期需求，保險範圍繼續有利於再保險買家，而由於對美國風險的持續謹慎，意外傷害再保險的動態更加穩定。

Moving to employee benefits. We continue to see solid demand for talent retention strategies given the resilient US labor market. Further, managing rising health insurance cost is becoming increasingly important for our clients as they deal with continued medical cost inflation. So we are engaging with employers to help them alleviate the pressure from rising medical and pharmaceutical costs.

接下來討論員工福利。鑑於美國勞動市場韌性十足，我們看到市場對人才保留策略的需求依然強勁。此外，隨著醫療成本持續上漲，如何控制不斷上漲的醫療保險成本對我們的客戶來說變得越來越重要。因此，我們正在與雇主合作，幫助他們緩解醫療和藥物成本上漲帶來的壓力。

Moving to some comments on our customers' business activity. While the US government shutdown has halted economic data releases our proprietary data, which has been an excellent indicator of the economy continues to show solid client business activity. Third quarter revenue indications from audits, endorsements and cancellations remain nicely positive.

接下來，我想就我們客戶的業務活動談幾點看法。雖然美國政府停擺導致經濟數據停止發布，但我們專有的數據（一直是經濟的優秀指標）繼續顯示客戶業務活動穩健。第三季審計、認可和取消帶來的收入指標仍保持良好動能。

Interesting, through the first threeweeks of October, our revenue indications are showing even more positive endorsements and lower cancellations than in September. So while we are watching our customers' business activity carefully, we are just not seeing signs of an economic downturn. Regardless of market and economic conditions, I believe we are very well positioned to grow.

有趣的是，10 月的前三週，我們的收入指標顯示，正面的口碑比 9 月更多，取消訂單的情況也更少。因此，儘管我們密切關注客戶的業務活動，但我們目前尚未看到經濟衰退的跡象。無論市場和經濟狀況如何，我相信我們都處於非常有利的發展地位。

From our leading net Dutch experts, as proprietary data, award-winning analytics platform, extensive product offerings, outstanding service and global resources, which puts us in an enviable spot competitively. As we sit today, we are seeing brokerage segment fourth quarter organic of around 5%, which would bring our full year organic to more than 6%.

我們擁有荷蘭頂尖的網路專家、專有數據、屢獲殊榮的分析平台、豐富的產品、卓越的服務和全球資源，這使我們在競爭中處於令人羨慕的地位。截至目前，我們看到經紀業務第四季的有機成長率約為 5%，這將使我們全年的有機成長率超過 6%。

Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Third quarter revenue growth was 8%, including organic of 6.7%. We saw strong new business revenue and excellent client retention in the third quarter and believe these favorable dynamics will continue through the end of the year. Accordingly, we expect about 7% organic growth in the fourth quarter.

接下來是我們的風險管理板塊，Gallagher Bassett。第三季營收成長8%，其中有機成長6.7%。第三季度，我們實現了強勁的新業務收入和出色的客戶留存率，我們相信這些有利的趨勢將持續到年底。因此，我們預計第四季度有機成長率約為 7%。

Third quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 21.8%, a bit better than our September expectations. Looking ahead, we see fourth quarter and full year margins around 21%, and that would be another great year for Gallagher Bassett.

第三季調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 21.8%，略優於我們 9 月的預期。展望未來，我們預計第四季和全年利潤率約為 21%，這將是 Gallagher Bassett 的另一個輝煌之年。

Let me shift to mergers and acquisitions, starting with some comments on AssuredPartners. Since the mid-August close dozens of Gallagher leaders and hundreds of others have been trailing to AP offices and hosting gatherings. We've been sharing our stories with thousands of our new colleagues and highlighting all the tools and expertise that is now at their fingertips.

接下來我想談談併購，先來談談 AssuredPartners。自 8 月中旬以來，數十名加拉格爾領導人和數百名其他人一直跟踪美聯社辦公室並舉行集會。我們一直在與數千名新同事分享我們的故事，並重點介紹他們現在可以輕易獲得的各種工具和專業知識。

I, too, have attended many of these meetings and events. And I have to tell you the level of excitement all of us have witnessed during these visits is literally palpable. We have shared a view that we will be better together, one plus one will be greater than two, and there is immense value creation for our clients, carrier partners and shareholders.

我也參加過很多這樣的會議和活動。我必須告訴你們，我們在這些訪問中親眼目睹的那種興奮之情，簡直是顯而易見的。我們一致認為，團結協作會讓我們變得更好，一加一大於二，這將為我們的客戶、營運商合作夥伴和股東創造巨大的價值。

Equally important, they know they are now home and they are getting the resources they are desperately needed for years. For those that are ready to join the amazing Gallagher culture, I welcome you.

同樣重要的是，他們知道自己現在回家了，並且正在獲得他們多年來迫切需要的資源。對於那些準備加入令人驚嘆的 Gallagher 文化的人，我表示熱烈歡迎。

Outside of AP, we committed five new mergers, representing around $40 million of estimated annualized revenue. This brings our year-to-date estimated annualized acquired revenue to more than $3.4 billion or 30% of full year '24 revenue. That is fantastic. And for those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome.

除了 AP 之外，我們還完成了五項新的合併，預計將年化收入約為 4,000 萬美元。這使得我們今年迄今的估計年度收購收入超過 34 億美元，佔 2024 年全年收入的 30%。太棒了。對於加入我們的新夥伴，我謹致以最熱烈的歡迎。

Looking at our pipeline, we have about 35 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $400 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallaher.

從我們的專案儲備來看，我們有大約 35 份已簽署或正在準備的意向書，代表著約 4 億美元的年化收入。優秀的公司總是有選擇的，如果他們選擇與 Gallaher 合作，那將是極好的。

I'll conclude my prepared remarks with some comments about our Bedrock Gallagher culture. As I am meeting with colleagues, both new and old across our global network, it's always impressive to me how quickly new employees and acquisition partners come together as part of the Gallagher family of professionals, how we embrace the Gallagher Way and enhance our offerings and services to clients. This tenant number 24 of the Gallagher Way reminds us, we must continue to building a professional company together as a team. And I believe this spirit of teamwork and shared purpose is precisely what is driving our success today. That is the Gallagher Way.

最後，我將就我們基石般的加拉格爾文化發表一些看法。在與我們全球網路中的新舊同事會面時，我總是對新員工和收購合作夥伴融入 Gallagher 專業團隊的速度之快、我們如何秉持 Gallagher 之道並提升我們為客戶提供的產品和服務感到印象深刻。Gallagher Way 的 24 號租戶提醒我們，我們必須繼續作為一個團隊共同建立一家專業的公司。我相信，這種團隊合作和共同目標的精神正是我們今天成功的動力。這就是加拉格爾之道。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

好的。我就此打住，把麥克風交給道格。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, let me first address the third quarter impact from rolling in revenues from AssuredPartners. So let's go to page 7 of the CFO commentary document that we provide on our website. Over the last 30 days, we finally got usable AP data down to the customer level detail. That gave us the policy inception data necessary to implement our 606 accounting and harmonized revenue accounting methods. First, it's important to note that the new detail did not change our annual view of revenue or EBITDA. Second, however, it did reveal that AP's business is much more seasonally skewed than we could previously estimate. Two tables here on page 7 help unpack this. The top table shows you the inter-quarter seasonality.

謝謝帕特，大家好。今天，我首先要談談AssuredPartners的營收併入對第三季的影響。那麼，讓我們翻到我們網站上提供的財務長評論文件的第 7 頁。在過去的 30 天裡，我們終於獲得了細化到客戶層級的可用 AP 資料。這為我們提供了實施 606 會計和統一收入會計方法所需的政策制定數據。首先需要指出的是，這個新細節並沒有改變我們對年度收入或 EBITDA 的看法。其次，它確實揭示了美聯社的業務比我們之前估計的更具季節性偏差。第 7 頁上的兩個表格有助於理解這一點。上表顯示了季度間的季節性變化。

It's easy to see first and fourth quarters have considerable seasonality, which you should consider when building your models. What this table doesn't show is the intra-quarter seasonality. So we've added the lower table.

不難看出，第一季和第四季具有相當大的季節性，在建立模型時應該考慮這一點。這張表格沒有顯示的是季度內的季節性變化。所以我們加入了下面的表格。

What this shows, while we owned AP for half the quarter, only about 40% of the policy inception dates were between August 18 and September 3, now produces an $80 million revenue difference to our September IR Day estimate where we used a 50% assumption because, we owned it for half of the third quarter. That causes a $0.22 shortfall to our indicated September IR day estimate. You'll see that in the yellow column in that table. It does impact some of my other commentary, but I'll highlight those throughout my remarks.

這表明，雖然我們持有 AP 業務的時間佔第三季度的一半，但只有大約 40% 的保單生效日期在 8 月 18 日至 9 月 3 日之間，這導致我們 9 月份的 IR Day 收入估計值與之前估計值相差 8000 萬美元，當時我們假設持有 AP 業務的時間占我們 50%，因為我們持有第三季度的時間。這將導致我們先前預測的 9 月 IR 日價格將出現 0.22 美元的缺口。你會在該表格的黃色列中看到這一點。這確實會影響我的其他一些評論，但我會在發言中專注於這些內容。

All right. With that said, let's go back to the earnings release. So let's go to page 3. Brokerage segment organic growth of 4.5%. That's about $11 million of less revenues than our September IR Day thinking.

好的。說了這麼多，我們還是回到財報發布這件事上來吧。那我們翻到第3頁。經紀業務板塊有機成長4.5%。這比我們9月份投資者關係日的預期少了大約1100萬美元的收入。

Half of that relates to those lumpy life sales that didn't get closed. And we've talked about that, how that can impact organic a little bit from time to time. That cost us about 30 basis points of growth. The other half or so relates to contingents. While there is some geography with supplementals, we did have an unfavorable estimate change related to one of our international programs.

其中一半與那些未能成交的零散房屋銷售有關。我們也討論過這個問題，以及這種情況有時會對有機食品產生哪些影響。這使我們損失了大約 30 個基點的成長。另一半左右與突發事件有關。雖然有一些地理方面的補充訊息，但我們的一項國際計畫確實出現了不利的預估變化。

That cost us about 20 basis points of growth relative to our expectations.

這導致我們的成長比預期下降了約 20 個基點。

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we see organic around 5%. A couple of items that influence our thinking when we make that estimate. First, as we discussed in our IR Day, we are in the midst of our annual update on 606 estimates. When all that settles that could move that growth estimate 0.5 point either way. We know that's just accounting, but it can cause some noise.

展望第四季度，我們預期有機成長率約為 5%。在進行估算時，有幾個因素會影響我們的思考。首先，正如我們在投資者關係日上討論的那樣，我們目前正在進行 606 項估算的年度更新。當所有因素塵埃落定後，成長預期可能會上下波動 0.5 個百分點。我們知道這只是會計處理，但它可能會引起一些爭議。

Second, always a little sensitive to the timing of those large life sales. If buyers believe rates may come down even more, they might push those into '26. That said, we were to deliver fourth quarter organic around 5%, we would finish the year with organic above 6%. That would be a terrific year.

其次，對人生大事發生的時間總是比較敏感。如果買家認為利率可能還會進一步下降，他們可能會將利率推遲到 2026 年。也就是說，如果我們第四季的有機成長率達到 5% 左右，那麼我們全年的有機成長率將超過 6%。那將會是精彩的一年。

Flipping to page 5 of the earnings release to the Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. Third quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 33.5%. That's flat year-over-year on the headline. But as I do each quarter, let me walk you through a bridge from last year.

翻到獲利報告第 5 頁，查看經紀業務部門調整後 EBITDAC 表格。第三季調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 33.5%。該指標與去年同期持平。但就像我每季都會做的那樣，讓我帶你回顧去年的一段經歷。

First, if you pull out last year's 2024 3rd quarter earnings release, you'd see we reported back then adjusted EBITDAC margin of 33.6%. Now adjusting that using current FX rate and this quarter is about 10 basis points. So FX adjusted EBITDAC margin for third quarter '24 is about 33.5%. From that starting point, the roll-in impact of M&A used about 200 basis points with more than 2/3 of that impact coming from the seasonality of AssuredPartners.

首先，如果你翻出去年發布的 2024 年第三季財報，你會發現當時我們公佈的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 33.6%。現在按當前匯率和本季匯率進行調整，大約是 10 個基點。因此，2024 年第三季經外匯調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率約為 33.5%。從該起點出發，併購的滾動影響約為 200 個基點，其中超過 2/3 的影響來自 AssuredPartners 的季節性因素。

Net interest income, including the cash we are holding for the AP closing through mid-August added about 140 basis points of margin. And most important, organic growth of 4.5% on gave us about 60 basis points of margin expansion this quarter. This bridge helps you quickly see we're continuing to deliver terrific underlying margin expansion. As for fourth quarter, we don't see anything that causes us to change how we view underlying margin expansion potential. We still see terrific opportunities.

淨利息收入（包括我們為應付帳款結算而持有的現金，截至 8 月中旬）增加了約 140 個基點的利潤率。最重要的是，本季有機成長率達到 4.5%，使我們的利潤率提高了約 60 個基點。這張圖表可以幫助您快速了解我們正在持續實現出色的基礎利潤率擴張。至於第四季度，我們沒有看到任何會改變我們對潛在利潤率擴張前景的看法的因素。我們仍然看到巨大的機會。

Sticking on page 5. The Risk Management segment organic growth was 6.7%. That was in line with our expectations, and that resulted due to strong new business revenues and excellent retention. We expect favorable new business and retention again in the fourth quarter. So it's looking like another quarter of organic growth in the 6.5% to 7% range.

貼在第5頁。風險管理業務部門的有機成長率為 6.7%。這符合我們的預期，這是由於強勁的新業務收入和出色的客戶留存率所致。我們預計第四季度新業務和客戶留存率將再次取得良好進展。因此，本季有機成長率預計將保持在 6.5% 至 7% 之間。

Adjusted EBITDAC margin of 21.8% was better than our September IR Day expectations, and looking forward, we still see full year margins closer to 21%.

經調整的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 21.8%，優於我們 9 月投資者關係日的預期，展望未來，我們仍然認為全年利潤率將接近 21%。

Let's turn now to page 7 of the earnings release and the Corporate segment shortcut table. Each of these adjusted lines came in close to the midpoint or just a bit better than our September IR Day expectations.

現在讓我們翻到獲利報告的第 7 頁和公司業務分部簡明表格。調整後的每條線都接近中點，或比我們 9 月的 IR Day 預期略好。

All right. Let's leave the earnings release and go back to the CFO commentary document. Starting on page 3 with our modeling helpers. Most of the third quarter '25 actual numbers, which were given, excluding AP, we're close to what we provided back in September. Looking forward, we are including AssuredPartners in our fourth quarter figures for depreciation, amortization and earnout payable.

好的。我們先放下獲利報告，回到財務長評論文件。從第 3 頁開始，介紹我們的模型助理。除美聯社數據外，我們公佈的 2025 年第三季大部分實際數據與我們 9 月公佈的數據基本一致。展望未來，我們將把 AssuredPartners 納入我們第四季的折舊、攤提和或有收益支付計畫中。

Also, please always take a few minutes to look at the impact of FX as you refine your models.

此外，在完善模型時，請務必花幾分鐘時間查看 FX 的影響。

Turning to page 4 and the corporate segment outlook for the fourth quarter 2025, not much change here from our IR days six weeks ago. Flipping now to page 5 to our tax credit carryforwards. Again, not much change from our IR day. But as a reminder, it's a nice cash flow sweetener to fund future M&A that doesn't show up in our P&L, but rather be our cash flow statement.

翻到第 4 頁，查看 2025 年第四季的企業部門展望，與六週前我們的投資者關係會議相比，這裡並沒有太大變化。現在翻到第5頁，了解我們的稅收抵免結轉情況。與我們的投資者關係日相比，情況並沒有太大變化。但需要提醒的是，這是一個不錯的現金流激勵措施，可以為未來的併購提供資金，這不會顯示在我們的損益表中，而是會顯示在我們的現金流量表中。

Turning to page 6. The investment income table. We've updated our forecast to reflect current FX rates and changes in fiduciary cash balances. These numbers assume one future 25 basis point rate cut in December. Shifting down to page 6 of the rollover revenue table.

翻到第6頁。投資收益表。我們已更新預測，以反映當前的匯率和受託人現金餘額的變化。這些數字假設未來12月將降息25個基點。翻到結轉收入表的第 6 頁。

The third quarter '25 columns, subtotal is around $137 million before divestitures. That's pretty close to our September estimate.

2025 年第三季度，資產剝離前的小計約為 1.37 億美元。這與我們9月的預估非常接近。

Looking forward, the pinkish columns to the right include estimated '25 and '26 revenues for brokerage M&A closed through yesterday, excluding AssuredPartners. And just a reminder, you always need to make a pick for future M&A.

展望未來，右側的粉紅色長條圖包括截至昨日完成的經紀併購交易的 2025 年和 2026 年預計收入，但不包括 AssuredPartners。還有一點要提醒大家，你總是需要為未來的併購活動做出選擇。

Moving down the page, you see that we expect fourth quarter '25 Risk Management segment rollover revenues of about $16 million.

繼續往下看，你會看到我們預計 2025 年第四季風險管理部門的結轉收入約為 1,600 萬美元。

All right. Flipping next to page 7, I hit on the major takeaways upfront in my comments, but heads up on a couple of items as you use this page to build your models. First, take a hard read through the footnotes. This table shows our midpoint estimates it uses a placeholder assumption for growth and also does not include synergies. We still see annualized run rate synergies of $cmillion by the end of '26 and $260 million to $280 million by early '28.

好的。翻到第 7 頁，我在評論中已經提到了主要要點，但在使用本頁建立模型時，請注意以下幾點。首先，仔細閱讀腳註。該表顯示了我們的中位數估計，它使用了一個佔位符成長假設，並且不包括協同效應。我們仍預計到 2026 年底，年化運行率綜效將達到 100 億美元，到 2028 年初將達到 2.6 億美元至 2.8 億美元。

On the second point, the noncash items that we show here, mostly depreciation and earn-out payable are also reflected in the brokerage segment fourth quarter estimates on page 3. So please don't double count those.

關於第二點，我們在這裡展示的非現金項目，主要是折舊和或有支付款項，也反映在第 3 頁的經紀業務部門第四季度估計中。所以請不要重複計算。

Moving to cash, capital management and M&A funding. When I look at available cash on hand plus future free cash flows plus investment-grade borrowings over the next couple of years, it's looking like we might have to fund M&A before using any stock still at multiples with a terrific arbitrage.

轉向現金流、資本管理和併購融資。當我審視手頭上可用現金、未來自由現金流以及未來幾年的投資級借款時，看來我們可能不得不先為併購提供資金，然後再利用那些估值倍數仍然很高、具有巨大套利機會的股票。

So before we go to Q&A, a few soundbites on our nine-month combined brokerage and risk management adjusted results. Revenue up 17%, net earnings up 27%, EBITDAC up 25%, our organic year-to-date at 6.6% and EBITDAC margin over 36%. Those are stellar results, and I see us finishing '25 strong and '26 is looking like another terrific year. Okay. Back to you, Pat.

在進入問答環節之前，先簡單介紹一下我們過去九個月的經紀和風險管理業務調整後業績。營收成長 17%，淨利潤成長 27%，EBITDAC 成長 25%，年初至今有機成長率為 6.6%，EBITDAC 利潤率超過 36%。這些都是非常出色的成績，我認為我們將在 2025 年取得佳績，而 2026 年看起來也將是另一個輝煌的年份。好的。帕特，該你了。

Thank you, Doug. Operator, if we can go to questions, please.

謝謝你，道格。操作員，我們可以進入問答環節了嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

My first question, I want to start on AssuredPartners. When we're thinking about well, I guess, new business by I'm assuming that, that's in the M&A line, but then what about synergies? Is that -- does that fall in the M&A line? Or is that something when they start coming online that will be included within organic revenue growth?

我的第一個問題，我想先從 AssuredPartners 開始。當我們思考如何透過併購拓展新業務時，我想，這應該屬於併購範疇，但是綜效呢？那──那算是併購範疇嗎？或者說，當他們開始上線時，這部分收入將被計入自然成長收入？

Well, the revenue synergies that we get out -- get from -- that goes into the AssuredPartners P&Ls will be given credit to them, not to us. If there is something that we would book, for instance, a broader base contingent commission or supplemental that impacts our books, that would go into -- into the legacy Gallagher organic growth. So to a certain extent, if we pick up some more on the AssuredPartners book of business that would not -- that would understate organic revenues. Does that help?

我們從 AssuredPartners 獲得的收益綜效，計入 AssuredPartners 的損益表，將歸功於他們，而不是我們。例如，如果我們要預訂一些項目，例如更廣泛的基本佣金或補充佣金，這些都會影響我們的帳目，那麼這些都會計入 Gallagher 的傳統有機成長中。因此，在某種程度上，如果我們再從 AssuredPartners 的業務中獲得一些份額，那將低估有機收入。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yes, that does help. And then I guess -- I mean, I think in the past you guys have said that next year, right, feels a lot like this year. You just said that the full year is going to be, I think, just more than 6%. Based on how you guys are seeing everything today. Is there more precise guidance just in terms of the organic outlook that you're looking at for 2026?

是的，這很有幫助。然後我想——我的意思是，我想你們過去曾說過，明年，對吧，感覺很像今年。你剛才說全年成長率，我想應該會略高於 6%。根據你們今天看待一切的方式來看。就您展望的 2026 年有機成長前景而言，是否有更精確的指導意見？

Yes. We're in the middle of our budget and planning process, but I still think we feel comfortable that next year -- '26 could look a lot like '25. We still believe that. early indications that we're having terrific success in our reinsurance business. We're having terrific success in our P&C businesses.

是的。我們正在進行預算和規劃工作，但我仍然認為我們有信心，明年——2026 年可能會和 2025 年很相似。我們仍然相信這一點。初步跡象表明，我們在再保險業務方面取得了巨大的成功。我們的財產險和意外險業務取得了巨大的成功。

So as a matter of fact, when you really pull back the organic growth in the P&C business, it's been pretty consistent over the last five to seven quarters when you strip out property cat. So basically, our business are still running very similar and today is what we were seeing throughout the year. So that's what makes us feel comfortable that next year could be a lot like this year.

因此，事實上，當你真正剔除財產險和巨災險業務的有機成長時，你會發現，在過去的五到七個季度裡，這種成長一直相當穩定。基本上，我們的業務運作仍然非常相似，今天的情況與我們今年全年的情況基本一致。所以，正因如此，我們才覺得明年可能會跟今年很像。

And then my last one is on M&A. When you guys talk about the pipeline, I'm assuming that's now like a combined Gallagher and AP pipeline? And how has -- now that you guys have closed on the AssuredPartners acquisition, how has, I guess, the M&A from their side of the house? How is it like added to the pipeline as well as just when you think out about kind of your bolt-on M&A over the course of like the next year or 2?

最後，我要來談談併購。你們說的管道，我猜現在是指 Gallagher 和 AP 合併後的管道吧？既然你們已經完成了對 AssuredPartners 的收購，那麼，我想說，他們那邊的併購進度如何呢？它如何融入你的發展規劃中，以及當你考慮在未來一兩年內進行一些補充性併購時，你會怎麼做？

Let give us a couple of weeks on that. I mean we just really got closed, and we're kind of getting around that. As I said, we've been doing a lot of visits. We're going to have most of their folks in the field come to the home office over the next 1.5 months or so. And that pipeline has not been yet put into our pipeline report.

讓我們花兩週時間研究一下。我的意思是，我們之前真的遇到了一些困難，現在我們正在想辦法解決這個問題。正如我所說，我們進行了多次訪問。接下來一個半月左右，我們將安排他們大部分的外勤人員到總部辦公。而這條管道尚未納入我們的管道報告。

They did have a good pipeline. Things we're working along. And of course, we're going to bring them together with our M&A people. But I don't have a real good handle on that yet. We're hopeful that, that business and those opportunities will roll that over to us.

他們的輸油管確實不錯。我們正在努力的方向。當然，我們也會讓他們與我們的併購人員合作。但我對此還沒有完全掌握。我們希望，這些業務和機會能夠轉移到我們這裡。

but I haven't seen that yet.

但我還沒看到。

Yes. One thing qualitatively on that is that what's happened is as I sit down and talk to some of the branch managers that -- or agency presidents that have come over that have been merger partners and AssuredPartners, I think a lot of them are frankly, we're kind of surprised that we'd be so interested and then they're in smaller communities, necessarily, they're booked -- they're not quite as large. So I think it's opened up the eyes to -- of those 30,000 agents and brokers out there that of all sizes, we have an interest.

是的。從定性角度來看，發生的事情是，當我坐下來與一些分公司經理——或者從合併夥伴和 AssuredPartners 過來的代理總裁——交談時，我認為他們中的很多人坦率地說，我們有點驚訝我們會如此感興趣，而且他們的業務規模較小，必然已經排滿了——他們的業務規模沒有那麼大。所以我認為這讓那 3 萬名各種規模的經紀人和經紀人意識到，我們對此很感興趣。

if you want to sell, you want to take care of your customers, you want to get better together. Our doors are open for that M&A. So that's -- I think there's an awakening that we want good producers that want to produce some good agency leaders that want to stay on and be a part of the business. So I think that's going to lead for us getting more looks and more swings at the plate.

如果你想做好銷售，你就應該關心你的客戶，你應該和他們一起進步。我們歡迎併購交易。所以——我認為人們正在覺醒，我們需要優秀的製作人，他們能夠培養出優秀的代理商領導者，而這些領導者也願意留下來，成為這個行業的一份子。所以我認為這將使我們獲得更多上場機會和更多揮棒機會。

It will also take a little while coke, if that's the right word. People are naturally cautious. We're going down a discussion and track with AP. You've now gone a different direction with Gallagher. How are you feeling about that?

還需要一點時間才能喝到可樂，如果用「可樂」這個字適合的話。人們天生謹慎。我們將與美聯社進行討論並探討相關事宜。你現在和 Gallagher 的合作方向有所不同了。你對此有何感想？

Are you still wanting to put the recruiting press on me? Or are you feeling a little bit hesitant. I think people want to naturally watch that. I'm very hopeful that when it starts to cook, it should cook well for us. That's what I'm hoping.

你還想繼續對我進行招募宣傳嗎？還是你覺得有點猶豫？我認為人們自然而然地會想看這類節目。我非常希望它開始烹飪後，能為我們烹製出美味的佳餚。我希望如此。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Securities。

So I just actually want to build on Elyse's question. The first one on the organic growth. I recently spoke with two competitors in the small to middle market brokerage area. And both of them kind of said, in this shallow pricing environment, 4% to 6% is a good organic run rate that it's very doable and likely. How does that strike you?

所以，我其實是想在伊莉絲的問題基礎上再補充一些內容。第一部分是關於有機成長的。我最近與兩家在中小市場經紀業務領域競爭的公司進行了交談。他們倆都表示，在當前價格較低的環境下，4% 到 6% 是一個不錯的自然成長率，完全可行，很有可能實現。你對此有何看法？

I mean does that feel like the strike zone as opposed to in the past, you were looking more at upper single digit just given the pricing environment?

我的意思是，現在的價格感覺像是理想的價格區間嗎？相較之下，過去考慮到當前的定價環境，你更傾向於個位數的高點嗎？

Yes. I think if we stood on January 1, remember, we thought that we would be somewhere between 6% and 8%, and that's where we're going to fold out. The difference is on some of that is our reinsurance business, our international business. So I think that you've got a good nose into what might be Main Street US retail.

是的。我認為，如果我們以 1 月 1 日的情況來看待這個問題，我們當時認為我們的支持率會在 6% 到 8% 之間，而這就是我們最終的目標。區別在於其中一些方面，例如我們的再保險業務和國際業務。所以我覺得你對美國主流零售業的發展趨勢已經有很好的把握了。

I think where we top up on that is because of our wholesale business that performs well. Our programs we've got that business, and then we've got our reinsurance business. So those are the things that make me feel being more on the upper end of that spectrum that range than within that range.

我認為我們之所以能彌補這部分缺口，是因為我們批發業務表現良好。我們的項目包括這項業務，然後我們還有再保險業務。所以，正是這些因素讓我感覺自己更處於這個範圍的高端，而不是在這個範圍內。

Got it. And then going back to M&As, and I get it's kind of too early to talk about AssuredPartners pipeline and so forth. But just in terms of A.J. Gallagher appetite, if a deal were to present a large deal were to come across here, your desks or if a deal outside of the United States that were large to come across your desks, would that be something you could do at this stage, just given the sheer size of AssuredPartners?

知道了。然後回到併購的話題，我知道現在談論 AssuredPartners 的專案儲備等等還為時過早。但就 A.J. Gallagher 的投資意願而言，如果一筆大額交易擺到你們面前，或者一筆來自美國以外的大額交易擺到你們面前，考慮到 AssuredPartners 的龐大規模，你們在這個階段是否有能力處理這筆交易呢？

Absolutely, yes.

當然，沒錯。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good afternoon. I guess I guess, first of all, I appreciate the disclosure on page 7 of your full commentary. And Doug, I think you mentioned just reiterated the $160 million of synergies that's not in these estimates, you can confirm that. Is that -- can you talk about the geography of that? Is that going to be -- is that going to be in the operating expense?

午安.首先，我感謝您在完整評論第 7 頁的揭露。道格，我想你剛才重申了這些估算中沒有包含的 1.6 億美元協同效應，你可以確認一下。那是——你能談談那裡的地理情況嗎？那筆費用會算是營運費用嗎？

Or is it going to be revenue and operating expense? Or -- and I'm not asking to pinpoint by quarter, just ballpark where you think those synergies, how those are going to show up when we get to the year-end '26?

或會列出收入和營運費用？或者——我不是要你精確到季度，只是大概說說你認為這些協同效應會在哪些方面顯現出來，以及到 2026 年底這些協同效應會如何顯現？

Yes, I think by the time you get into 26, it's easy for me to always say 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. We're going to get 1/3 for revenue uplift. We're going to get 1/3 because better -- coming together, we'll have some efficiencies in our workforce. And I think 1/3 of that will come from our operating expenses. The more exciting number really comes when you get to that as you start to push $300 million of synergies out over the next year, really over the next 1.5 years after the end of '26.

是的，我覺得到了 26 歲，我很容易就能一直說 1/3、1/3、1/3。我們將獲得三分之一的收入成長。我們將獲得三分之一的份額，因為更好的方法是——團結起來，我們將提高員工的工作效率。我認為其中三分之一將來自我們的營運費用。更令人興奮的數字是，當你開始在未來一年，實際上是在 2026 年底之後的 1.5 年內，推出 3 億美元的協同效應。

I think you're going to see terrific opportunities for us to deploy our technologies. The AI that we're working at right now. Greg, you've been around the story a long time. We have spent 20 years transforming our business. We have capitalized on on labor arbitrage.

我認為你們將會看到我們運用自身技術的絕佳機會。我們目前正在研究的人工智慧。格雷格，你很早就關注這件事了。我們花了20年時間改造我們的業務。我們利用了勞動力套利。

We've deployed technologies. It's just part of our DNA. You put that over our tracks, and you put that $3 billion over our proven places where we've been able to deliver efficiencies, productivity and raise quality I think it's ripe for a tremendous, tremendous amount of better together even -- maybe even better than what we're saying right now.

我們已經部署了相關技術。這是我們DNA的一部分。如果把這些投入到我們的軌道上，把這 30 億美元投入到我們已經證明能夠提高效率、生產力和品質的地區，我認為這將帶來巨大的進步，甚至可能比我們現在所說的還要好。

I think the better together stuff, too, Greg, just is the whole revenue side of things. I think there's a lot more closeness in terms of what we're producing, and there's a lot more opportunity to trade together. They are clients of RPS, but not to the same extent nearly that our present platform does contribute to RPS. They've got a host of business. Although they are a spread middle market broker, they do have a ton of business in the UK

格雷格，我覺得「攜手共進」的意義也主要體現在收入上。我認為我們在產品生產方面更加接近，也有更多的貿易機會。他們是 RPS 的客戶，但遠不及我們目前的平台對 RPS 的貢獻程度。他們有很多生意要做。雖然他們是一家專注於中端市場的價差經紀商，但他們在英國的業務量非常大。

We've identified literally millions of dollars of business opportunities to trade with ourselves there. And so just across the board, we've already produced $1 million of new accounts with them in six weeks, that are accounts we both mutually had in our prospect system. When we went out together with our tools, their connections, our connections, they made it easy for that buyer to join us. There's literally thousands of those opportunities. So I think the trading better together is a real opportunity.

我們已經發現，在那裡存在著價值數百萬美元的自營貿易機會。因此，僅六週時間，我們就與他們共同創造了 100 萬美元的新客戶，這些客戶都是我們雙方在潛在客戶系統中共同擁有的。當我們帶著工具、他們的關係和我們的關係一起外出時，他們讓買家很容易就加入了我們。這樣的機會數不勝數。所以我認為，攜手合作、共同進步是個真正的機會。

And in your answer, you mentioned that you're going to have the AP gets credit for -- in their book for their revenue synergies. And so it seems like you're keeping two books for the purposes of getting through the earn-out period. But Am I to infer from your comments that you're going to be taking or trying to encourage the AP retail reps to use RPS as opposed to other sources. Is that going to help drive your wholesale organic. Or does that -- if something like that happens, is that going to AP book, and we don't see that manifest itself in terms of organic results for AJG?

你在回答中提到，你會讓 AP 在他們的帳簿上因其收入協同效應而獲得認可。所以看來你為了度過獲利期，開了兩本帳。但我是否可以從你的評論中推斷出，你打算鼓勵或試圖鼓勵 AP 零售代表使用 RPS 而不是其他來源？這是否有助於推動你們的有機產品批發業務？或者，如果發生類似的事情，是否會被列入 AP 書籍，而我們卻看不到這在 AJG 的自然成長中得到體現？

I'll let Doug comment on how we'll account for it. He's got that down, but let me tell you about the opportunity. As you know, probably about five or six years ago, we went through the arduous task of going out to our retailers and cutting back from probably 500 separate wholesalers being used across the entire platform in absolutely no coordinated way. And we moved that across to four specific strategic relationships, one of which was RPS, our owned wholesaler, recognizing that we needed others besides just ourselves.

我會讓道格來解釋我們將如何應對此事。他已經掌握了這一點，但讓我告訴你這個機會。如你所知，大概五、六年前，我們經歷了艱鉅的任務，走訪了我們的零售商，並將整個平台上使用的大約 500 個獨立的批發商全部削減，這些批發商之間完全沒有任何協調。我們將這種模式擴展到了四個具體的策略合作關係，其中之一是我們自己的批發商 RPS，因為我們意識到除了我們自己之外，我們還需要其他人。

That, I call it arduous because it was trench warfare and we got it done. And by the way, we did that to benefit our clients and improved it over and over again. Well, AP is just Gallagher 15 years ago. So we're going to have to go through that process, and we're not mandating the use RPS, but we will start the process in the new year of saying, look, there's basically five and that we'll add on to that and that will be it. And we're going to just keep pushing and pushing and pushing.

我稱之為艱苦卓絕，因為那是塹壕戰，但我們最終完成了它。順便說一句，我們這樣做是為了讓我們的客戶受益，並且不斷地改進它。嗯，AP 就像 15 年前的 Gallagher。所以我們必須經歷這個過程，我們不會強制使用 RPS，但我們會在新的一年開始實施這個過程，屆時我們會說，你看，基本上有五個，我們會在此基礎上增加，就這樣。我們會繼續努力，不斷努力，再努力。

And that, of course, does include what we would hope to be an outsourced -- an outsized opportunity for RPS. And Doug can talk about the accounting.

當然，這其中也包括我們希望外包的部分——這對 RPS 來說是一個巨大的機會。道格可以談談會計方面的事。

Yes. Greg, in that example, if we move it from wholesaler X, Y, Z to RPS that would be considered organic growth in our legacy numbers. And we're talking about another 10 months of this, right, on that. So that would be legacy Gallagher organic growth. If we -- if they come on to a base commission schedule, where we were getting 16% commission, and they were getting 14%, that extra 2% of that base commission would be credited to that AssuredPartners historical branch. Does that keep us from having to consolidate these businesses for purposes of that solely? No. There's a self-adjusting mechanism because it's going to go to the producer that that extra compensation will go to the producer and for us to track the producer, whether they move from branch to branch. It's not going to produce any more difficulty.

是的。格雷格，在那個例子中，如果我們把批發商從 X、Y、Z 轉移到 RPS，那麼按照我們以往的數據，這將被視為有機成長。我們說的是還要再撐10個月，對吧。所以，這就是 Gallagher 家族傳統的有機成長。如果我們——如果他們採用基本佣金表，我們獲得 16% 的佣金，他們獲得 14% 的佣金，那麼這額外的 2% 基本佣金將計入 AssuredPartners 的歷史分支機構。這是否意味著我們無需僅僅出於這個目的而合併這些企業？不。這裡有一個自我調整機制，因為這筆額外的補償將支付給生產者，而我們則需要追蹤生產者，無論他們是否從一個分支機構調到另一個分支機構。這不會造成更多困難。

We're not keeping them separate from us. There is no earnout on AssuredPartners other than those that they bought were still on an earn-out. So we will have their earnouts, but that will go away in another 1.5 years, too. So it's not going to put a burden and we're not doing anything to keep. We're trying to put everybody on the same system and get everybody in the same playbook as fast as possible.

我們並沒有將他們與我們隔離。AssuredPartners本身沒有獲利支付條款，但他們收購的那些公司仍有獲利支付條款。所以我們會得到他們的收益分成，但這也會在 1.5 年後消失。所以這不會造成負擔，我們也不會採取任何措施來保留它。我們正在努力讓所有人盡快使用同一系統，並讓所有人遵循同一套操作流程。

I guess for the final sort of cleanup question just back to market conditions. There's a lot of rhetoric in the marketplace about where we are in the pricing cycle. And I noted your comments that you're seeing some continuing stability and especially your middle and small market exposures. But maybe you can Pat, you've been around, I don't know what number cycle you're on at this point in time, but there's a number of them. And I'm just curious how you think this is going to play out over the next two or three years because certainly, it seems like large account property is under a lot of pressure, and there are some other areas where there's pressure points?

我想最後一個需要澄清的問題，還是回到市場狀況。市場上有很多關於我們目前處於價格週期哪個階段的言論。我注意到您提到市場持續保持穩定，尤其是在中小型市場。但也許你可以試試，帕特，你經驗豐富，我不知道你現在處於哪個階段，但階段有很多。我很好奇您認為未來兩三年內情況會如何發展，因為很明顯，大客戶物業管理面臨很大的壓力，其他一些領域也存在壓力點？

Yes. I'd be glad to talk about that. I've done this in the past as consistent with my previous comments, surprising to me a couple of years ago when I was in London, we've just gotten done putting forward and selling 300% renewal increases on our public company D&O book. And I was with the FI team in London. They said, Pat, this thing is going to soften fast.

是的。我很樂意談談這個話題。我過去也這樣做過，這與我之前的評論一致。幾年前我在倫敦的時候，令我驚訝的是，我們剛完成了上市公司董事及高階主管責任險業務300%續保成長的提案和銷售。當時我和FI團隊在倫敦。他們說：“帕特，這東西很快就會軟化的。”

And I'm like, how can -- how did that happen? D&O is going to start to drop down and so is cyber, and go, guys, you got to be kidding me.

我當時就想，怎麼會這樣──怎麼會發生這種事？董事及高階主管責任險和網路安全險都要開始下降了，拜託，你們在開玩笑吧。

And that started about 2.5 years ago and continues while at the same time, during that period, other lines were continuing to firm. So what I think we're seeing this time, which is different from the cycle in the late '80s into the '90s and different recycle in 2005 is that there's less of all lines down, all lines up. which is why we try to give it in our prepared comments.

這種情況大約始於兩年半前，並且一直持續至今，與此同時，在此期間，其他線路也持續收緊。所以我認為我們這次看到的現象，與80年代末到90年代的周期以及2005年的那次不同的回收週期不同，是所有生產線都停擺或全部生產線都恢復的情況都減少了。這就是為什麼我們要在準備好的評論中盡量提到這一點。

The property market clearly is in a good spot for clients. It's been a hard place for clients for the last number of years. They're getting some relief. That's a positive thing. When you take a look at the casualty market, isn't it interesting that we're still seeing rate increases there as they look to the tail on that stuff and realize they've got to adjust to it.

房地產市場顯然對客戶有利。過去幾年，客戶的日子一直不好過。他們的情況有所好轉。這是件好事。當你觀察意外險市場時，不覺得很有趣嗎？儘管他們著眼於此類風險的尾部，並意識到他們必須做出調整，但我們仍然看到那裡的費率上漲。

So I do believe that you have cycles within the cycle, which is different than the past, and this is my fourth. It's different than I've seen in the past, and I think kind of makes sense.

所以我相信循環中還有循環，與過去不同，這是我的第四個循環。這和我以前見過的都不一樣，我覺得也挺有道理的。

So I think we're always one storm or one disaster away from a firming property market. Casualty takes a long time to sort of figure out, you don't know your cost of goods sold and it bleeds in, and then you've got ancillary lines like package and what have you. The interesting thing to me is that this is also bifurcated in a different way than it was in the past. Our large accounts are demanding discounts and they're getting bigger ones, makes some sense. They wield more premium.

所以我認為，一場風暴或一場災難總是會導致房地產市場走強。意外損失需要很長時間才能弄清楚，你不知道你的銷售成本，它會不斷累積，然後你還有包裹之類的附屬險種。我覺得有趣的是，這種情況的分化方式也跟過去不同了。我們的大客戶要求折扣，而且他們也確實獲得了更大的折扣，這在某種程度上是合理的。它們擁有更優質的資產。

Smaller accounts, which were in the last cycles down as well, not so strong.

規模較小的帳戶，在上一輪週期中也出現了下跌，表現並不強勁。

So we'll see how this all shakes out. But I think the dominant theme here is it's going to be cyclical it is cyclical, but I think it will be by line and by results by line, cycles within the cycle.

所以，我們拭目以待，看看事情最終會如何發展。但我認為這裡的主要主題是它將是循環的，它確實是循環的，但我認為它將是逐行逐個結果地循環，循環中又循環。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

My first question is a follow-up on the pricing dynamics. We do see some deceleration in casualty or 6% this quarter. Do you think the trend will continue to decelerate or stabilize for here? Just wondering like what is your expectation going forward?

我的第一個問題是關於定價動態的後續問題。本季傷亡人數增幅放緩，降幅為 6%。你認為這種趨勢會繼續放緩還是趨於穩定？我只是好奇你對未來有什麼期待？

So what you're saying -- let me make sure I understand the question. You're seeing a deceleration in the casualty pricing increases, not a decrease in casualty pricing? We're not seeing that. We disagree with that.

所以你的意思是──讓我確認一下我是否理解了你的問題。你看到的是意外傷害保險價格上漲速度放緩，而不是價格下降？我們沒有看到這種情況。我們不同意這種說法。

Yes. Listen, I think that on a quarter-by-quarter basis, you could get a little bit of mix difference that might cause us to look at -- let's face it. This thing is marching up at 6% to 8% a year has been for three or four years. I don't think things are getting less risky out there. I think that the carriers are being smart by staying ahead of this and continue to march forward on the casualty pricing.

是的。聽著，我認為按季度來看，可能會出現一些成分上的差異，這可能會讓我們不得不考慮——讓我們面對現實吧。這種現像已經持續了三、四年，每年上漲 6% 到 8%。我不認為外面的風險會降低。我認為保險公司採取的明智之舉是先發制人，繼續推動意外險定價。

The other thing too is, remember, I know you're asking questions about late. There's also exposure unit change underneath it. And then also our customers remember this. When the rates are coming down, they opt in for more insurance.

還有一點，記住，我知道你們在問關於遲到的問題。下面還有曝光單位變更。我們的客戶也會記住這一點。當保費下降時，他們會選擇購買更多保險。

They buy more insurance. When rates are going up, they opt out of it. So the actual -- we're actually seeing revenue increases in lines that are higher than what rate declines that we're seeing in it.

他們購買了更多保險。當利率上漲時，他們會選擇退出。所以實際情況是——我們看到某些線路的收入成長高於某些線路的利率下降幅度。

So the fact is people are buying more insurance within that line, i.e., more exposure. They dropped their deductibles, they raised their limits, so they're buying one. So the brokers will never show -- will never track on 100% to rate because of this opt-in and opt-out. And we used to speak about that a lot 10 years ago. So it's not just rate, it's just what our customers' budgets going to afford.

所以事實是，人們正在購買更多這類保險，也就是說，風險敞口更大。他們降低了自付額，提高了保額上限，所以他們要買一輛。因此，由於這種選擇加入和選擇退出機制，經紀人永遠不會出現——永遠不會 100% 跟踪評級。十年前我們經常談論這個話題。所以，這不僅僅是價格問題，而是關乎我們客戶的預算所能負擔的範圍。

Now as our customers grow, we'll sell more insurance, too. A person has 100 trucks and they go to 105 trucks, they got to buy 5% more truck insurance.

隨著客戶群的成長，我們的保險銷售也會隨之成長。一個人擁有 100 輛卡車，然後增加到 105 輛，那麼他需要購買 5% 的額外卡車保險。

Got it. On my second question in on the industry. So we noticed on oen broker continuously expand its own wholesale operation [Landec] and recently enters the US retail market. Just wondering what's your take on this?

知道了。關於我提出的第二個問題，是關於這個行業的。我們注意到，一家經紀商不斷擴大其自身的批發業務[Landec]，並且最近進入了美國零售市場。想知道你對此有何看法？

And how does this impact that Gallagher?

這會對加拉格爾產生什麼影響？

Well, I'm not going to comment on our competitive strategy. Things are perfect for us.

我不打算對我們的競爭策略發表評論。一切都很完美。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

The employee benefits, you had some slippage in a couple of large life cases, but is the general line of business, how do you see that shaping up for fourth quarter 2026?

員工福利方面，雖然在幾起大型人壽保險案件中出現了一些延誤，但總體而言，您認為 2026 年第四季整體業務發展如何？

Well, the fourth quarter is a time where we do a lot of our helping customers enrollment. We see that as pretty strong right now. I think that there's a lot of help as people are trying to change the dynamics. So we're helping folks on with that. I think that it gets into the executive comp lines where people are looking for their strategies coming into proxy season and the base medical sales right now, too, I think that human resource leaders are waking up to the spiraling the increasing cost of medical inflation, both on utilization and then cost on the utilization.

第四季是我們幫助客戶進行大量註冊工作的時期。我們認為目前來看，這一點相當強勁。我認為，在人們努力改變這種局面的過程中，有很多幫助。所以我們正在幫助大家解決這個問題。我認為這涉及高階主管薪酬方案，人們正在為即將到來的代理權徵詢季制定策略，目前醫療銷售也受到影響。我認為人力資源領導者也開始意識到醫療通膨成本的螺旋式上升，這不僅體現在醫療資源利用率上，也體現在醫療資源利用成本上。

So you're having a frequency that pop up. I think this is going to be a time where if you go back, I don't know x years ago, I think there's always a war for talent. But right now, I think human resource folks are really working hard on this escalating cost of of medical inflation. That will put some opportunities into our books here in the fourth quarter, and I think it will keep us really busy next year.

所以你遇到了一個突然出現的高頻率訊號。我認為這將是一個這樣的時代：如果你回顧過去，例如幾年前，我認為人才爭奪戰總是存在的。但就目前而言，我認為人力資源部門的人員正在努力應對不斷上漲的醫療通膨成本。這將為我們在第四季度帶來一些機會，我認為這將使我們明年非常忙碌。

Yes. How about new business Pat. In your experience at this time in the cycle, things are a little understanding that casualty is still up and still is a tough market. Is it a little easier or harder or about the same to go out and get new business?

是的。帕特，你覺得新業務怎麼樣？根據您在當前週期階段的經驗，情況有點複雜，傷亡人數仍然居高不下，市場仍然艱難。現在拓展新業務是稍微容易、更難還是差不多？

Look, I think you're raising a good question. It's kind of an interesting time. First of all, it's nice in a time like this, you can deliver for your clients. So it's not -- we're not constrained by capacity in just about anyway. At the very same time, you have our little competitors, and you'll recall that we compete 90% of time against smaller players.

我覺得你提出了一個很好的問題。這是一個相當有趣的時代。首先，在這樣的時期，能夠為客戶提供服務是件好事。所以並非如此——我們幾乎在任何方面都不受產能限制。同時，我們還有一些小競爭對手，您應該記得，我們​​90%的時間都是與規模較小的競爭對手競爭。

They can surprise us with a quote we didn't expect. You can end up sitting there saying, this is a great deal and someone will come in with something crazy. At the same time, quite honestly, our clients are not happy. They've gone through five years of listening and listening to increases and what have you.

他們可能會給我們意想不到的報價。你可能會坐在那裡說，這真是個好機會，結果有人卻提出一個離譜的價格。同時，坦白說，我們的客戶並不滿意。他們經歷了五年的聆聽，聆聽著各種成長等等。

We've been able to show them with our data and analytics, why it's happening, where it's happening, what to expect. But sometimes that local guy will get a shot at something and deliver a price, we've got to match or what have you. So I think that it's both a very good time for new business because our people that are aggressive on the phone out talking to people can really deliver. At the same time, we have to reemphasize and resell the existing book we have. And I think we're good at that.

我們透過數據和分析向他們展示了事情發生的原因、發生地點以及可能發生的情況。但有時候，當地人會拿到某個東西，然後報出一個價格，我們就得跟上或採取其他措施。所以我認為現在是開展新業務的好時機，因為我們那些積極主動打電話與人交談的員工真的可以取得成果。同時，我們也要重新強調並重新銷售我們現有的書籍。我認為我們在這方面做得很好。

Overall, I think it's probably a positive for new logos, and it's probably less of a positive for top line revenue growth.

總的來說，我認為這對新標誌來說可能是件好事，但對營收成長的正面影響可能不大。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

I had a question just on the property market. It was encouraging that RPC held in at down 5%. I think it was down 7% in the second quarter. Just given the light storm season, I'm just wondering how you're thinking about just the property market overall going forward, not only for the fourth quarter, but then also for next year?

我有一個關於房地產市場的問題。令人欣慰的是，RPC 的跌幅僅 5%。我認為第二季下降了7%。鑑於今年風暴較少，我想知道您對未來整個房地產市場的看法，不僅是第四季度，還有明年？

I think the property market is going in a direction that makes some sense given the fact that they've got good results. The cat bond industry is doing well, record ILS activity. Reinsurers are making a good return on what they put at risk. I think there is more capacity available. I think there's continued pressure on the downside.

我認為房地產市場的發展方向在某種程度上是合理的，因為他們已經取得了不錯的成績。巨災債券產業表現良好，ILS交易量創歷史新高。再保險公司從他們承擔的風險中獲得了豐厚的回報。我認為還有更多產能可用。我認為下行壓力依然存在。

That influences -- if it was down 5% to 7% this year, and what we post this year, next year, if it's down 5% to 7%, that's baked into our outlook for next year.

這會影響——如果今年下降 5% 到 7%，那麼我們今年發布的數據，明年，如果下降 5% 到 7%，這已經納入了我們對明年的展望。

I will say this, David. I do not sense a dramatic decrease coming in the fashion of past cycles where all of a sudden you turn around, it's off 15%. I'm not sensing that at this point.

大衛，我只想說…我感覺不會像過去的周期那樣出現急劇下降，突然之間就下跌了 15%。我目前還沒有這種感覺。

Got it. That's helpful. And so the sort of like a down 5% to 7% is embedded, Doug, and your early thoughts on next year looking similar to this year?

知道了。那很有幫助。所以，道格，預計會下降 5% 到 7%，你對明年的初步看法會和今年類似嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay. Great. And then also it seems like the RPC was fairly stable with what you guys had said in some of the other lines versus September. Just if I think holistically about the book, could you just talk about what RPC is trending at or what it was in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and maybe where it was in the first quarter?

好的。偉大的。此外，根據你們在其他一些行中的說法，RPC 似乎也相當穩定，與 9 月的情況相比。如果我整體上考慮這本書的內容，您能否談談 RPC 的趨勢，或者說說它第三季度與第二季度相比的情況，以及它第一季的情況？

I think overall that we're seeing basically a 4% increase across the book. I think Pat said that in the early part of his comments probably got lost in there a little bit that -- overall, we're still seeing a business where the rate and exposure are moving north of 4%, 5%, something like that.

我認為總體而言，我們看到整個圖書市場基本上成長了 4%。我認為 Pat 在他評論的開頭部分可能有點離題了，那就是——總的來說，我們仍然看到一個行業的利率和風險敞口在 4%、5% 左右。

Got it. And then maybe if I could just sneak one more in. I noticed that you guys generated about $500,000 on AssuredPartners fiduciary balances in the third quarter. Is I would have thought that, that would be a decent size opportunity for you guys. Is that something -- it doesn't look like much of a change in your fiduciary expectations for the fourth quarter.

知道了。然後，也許我還能偷偷再加一個。我注意到你們在第三季透過 AssuredPartners 信託餘額創造了約 50 萬美元的收入。我原以為這對你們來說會是個相當大的機會。這算什麼？看起來您對第四季的信託責任預期並沒有太大變化。

I know the interest rate environment has changed a little bit. But how are you thinking about the fiduciary cash at AssuredPartners? And how much revenue do you think you can generate off of that next year?

我知道利率環境已經發生了一些變化。但您對 AssuredPartners 的受託現金有何看法？你認為明年你能從中獲得多少收入？

I think it's a great opportunity over long term. If you go back, and I think one of you who might have been at it in Cloudware, was asking a lot of questions about what we're doing in order to to channel working capital. We would talk about consolidating bank accounts over and over and over 10 years ago, and we really did a great job of bringing more efficiency to our free cash flow management, our pooling across divisions and then also just the ability to quickly harness the fiduciary monies and put them into interest-bearing accounts.

我認為從長遠來看，這是一個絕佳的機會。如果你回顧一下，我想你們當中可能有人曾在 Cloudware 工作過，當時你們問了很多關於我們如何引導營運資金的問題。十年前，我們反覆討論合併銀行帳戶的問題，我們確實在提高自由現金流管理效率、跨部門資金整合以及快速利用信託資金並將其存入計息帳戶方面取得了巨大成功。

So I see it as a terrific opportunity. I got to go back and take a look at our assumptions going forward, and we'll probably update those in December a little bit. But by and large, I think over the next few years, we haven't baked that into our our synergy assumptions in what I've been talking, but there will be an opportunity for us to consolidate those accounts and harvest those cash flows faster. And the interest rate, that's a little bit higher than it was 10 years ago. There's a pretty good payback on that.

所以我認為這是一個絕佳的機會。我得回去重新審視我們未來的假設，我們可能會在 12 月對這些假設做一些更新。但總的來說，我認為在未來幾年裡，我們還沒有把這一點納入我剛才所說的協同效應假設中，但我們將有機會整合這些帳戶並更快地獲得這些現金流。而且利率比10年前略高。這樣做的回報相當不錯。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor Fitzgerald.

Ryan Tunis，Cantor Fitzgerald。

Definitely, like one of my favorite leadership teams has been Pat, Doug, Ray, but I got a couple of kind of tough questions. First one for Pat, second for Doug. So first one, I was going through some old transcripts like I think it was 2013, maybe 2014, but it was when the last hard market was kind of in this situation, and you guys were doing on organic. And like what I'd say, Pat, is like you sounded like on those transcripts, the same way you do now. We're killing it, we're doing everything

當然，我最喜歡的領導團隊之一就是 Pat、Doug 和 Ray，但我有幾個比較棘手的問題。第一個給帕特，第二個給道格。首先，我翻閱了一些舊的文字記錄，大概是 2013 年，也可能是 2014 年，但那是上一次市場行情低迷的時候，你們當時正在做有機增長。就像我想說的，帕特，你說話的方式和你在那些錄音帶裡說的一樣，和你現在說的一樣。我們做得太棒了，我們什麼都做！

Positive, bullish and really excited.

積極樂觀，充滿信心，非常興奮。

Exactly, but you're doing one organic. And like that was execution and now you're talking about 6%. So my question for you is like what is actually different because like I think you appreciate this time in the market. I'm curious, what you're thinking about why you'd be able to do 6% now and back then on was good.

沒錯，但你做的是有機食品。就這樣，執行率降到了 6%。所以我的問題是，究竟有什麼不同？因為我覺得你會很欣賞當前的市場狀況。我很好奇，你覺得為什麼現在能做到 6% 的收益率，以及當時能做到 6% 的收益率是什麼樣的呢？

Well, it's really simple. I mean, first of all, the market is not falling off below us as fast across all the same lines. Right now, we're dealing with still across all of the lines a positive 4%. If you go back to '13, '12 and '14 and look at the -- what was actually happening, it was until about '15, '16 that any price increases anywhere we're coming into positive territory. So we're now -- our renewal book is still producing 3% to 4% organic. And yes, property is down.

其實很簡單。我的意思是，首先，在我們下方，市場在各方面下跌的速度並沒有那麼快。目前，所有線路的成長率仍為正 4%。如果你回顧 2013 年、2012 年和 2014 年，看看當時實際發生了什麼，你會發現直到 2015 年、2016 年左右，任何地方的價格上漲才開始進入正成長階段。所以現在——我們的續約率仍然能達到 3% 到 4% 的自然成長率。是的，房地產價格下跌了。

And of course, at the time when we were talking in '12 and '13, I think we had a pretty clear vision of what we're trying to accomplish. And even though the pricing environment was down, we saw opportunities to do good acquisitions to become more efficient. At that time, people -- we're over 20-plus years now of working with our colleagues in the GCOE both in India, in the Philippines, in Scotland, in Las Vegas. We're up about 16,000 people providing over 500 services to us around the world.

當然，在 2012 年和 2013 年我們進行討論的時候，我認為我們對想要實現的目標有著非常清晰的願景。即使價格環境低迷，我們也看到了透過收購提高效率的機會。那時，各位——我們與全球卓越中心（GCOE）的同事們合作了 20 多年，他們分別來自印度、菲律賓、蘇格蘭和拉斯維加斯。我們現在擁有約 16,000 名員工，在世界各地為我們提供 500 多種服務。

Yes, there's an arbitrage in cost there for employment, but there's really a huge increase in productivity and quality as well. What we do is better, and I think we saw that. We were very excited about it. And I look back at those times at that very time, what you'll recall, we were telling you is that the two-pronged approach. People look at acquisition activity go up.

是的，這在就業成本方面存在套利空間，但生產力和品質也確實大幅提高。我們做得更好，我想我們已經看到了這一點。我們對此感到非常興奮。回想起當時的情景，你們應該還記得，我們​​當時告訴你們的是雙管齊下的方法。人們注意到收購活動增加。

You bought that growth, that didn't count.

你買來的那些成長，不算數。

Well, last I look, when you buy something at an arbitrage in many instances, as much as 50%, someone's giving me $1 for $0.50. I think that's a pretty good deal. And I see the same dynamics now. In fact, if anything, the dynamics are stronger in our presence now because we are bigger, our brand is stronger, our data and analytic capabilities. Just take 2012, we did not have any real capacity to take structured data and tell you as we told you today.

嗯，據我所知，當你以套利價格購買商品時，很多情況下折扣高達 50%，相當於有人用 0.5 美元的價格賣給我 1 美元。我認為這筆交易相當划算。現在我看到的也是同樣的趨勢。事實上，如果有什麼改變的話，那就是我們現在的影響力更大了，因為我們的規模更大了，我們的品牌更強大了，我們的數據和分析能力也更強了。就拿 2012 年來說，我們當時根本沒有能力處理結構化數據，並像今天這樣向你們展示數據。

What happened in work comp last month in Oregon, I can tell you. I got to tell you what happened yesterday. Our data lake, one source, now actually comprises three years of the AP data. We've gotten that done in less than two months -- so when we go with Gallagher Drive to the field, and we talk about people like you buy this, and this is what's happening to rates in our book. That's real Gallagher/AP data, as of today, by SIC code, by line by geography.

我可以告訴你上個月俄勒岡州工傷賠償方面發生的事情。我得告訴你昨天發生的事。我們的資料湖（一個資料來源）現在實際上包含了三年的美聯社資料。我們在不到兩個月的時間內就完成了這件事——所以當我們帶著 Gallagher Drive 去現場，和像你這樣的人談論購買這個產品時，這就是我們賬簿上的價格變化。這是截至今日的真實 Gallagher/AP 數據，按 SIC 程式碼、按行、按地理位置劃分。

Customers want that stuff. So do we weather up and down rates? Yes. Ryan, just pull up the chart and look at our TSR, seems like it worked.

顧客想要那些東西。那麼，我們該如何應對利率的波動呢？是的。Ryan，你打開圖表看看我們的 TSR，看起來效果不錯。

Before you give a tough question for me, let me throw on one thing. 2013, no international present to speak of. Well, we didn't -- we hadn't done any acquisitions and built the business we have in the UK Australia, New Zealand. You didn't have reinsurance.

在你向我提出棘手問題之前，我想先補充一點。 2013年，我幾乎沒有參加任何國際比賽。嗯，我們沒有——我們沒有進行任何收購，而是在英國、澳洲和紐西蘭建立了我們現有的業務。你沒有再保險。

RPS was, yes, use them if you want. We didn't have the programs that we have now.

RPS是的，如果你想用的話就可以用。我們以前沒有現在這些項目。

So when -- Gallagher Bassett was a pretty good grower and still is a pretty good grower in the claims business as people saw the value that they create. We're a different business today by far. The excitement hasn't changed about our opportunity because we still see opportunity, still see opportunities to trade better with ourselves to take more market share to outsell our smaller competitors. It's a different franchise today than it was in 2012. That should bring you some optimism that if we're posed to 1%, then make 6% look pretty easy now.

所以，當人們看到 Gallagher Bassett 創造的價值時，它在理賠業務領域已經發展得相當不錯，而且現在仍然發展得相當不錯。如今我們與以往相比，已經截然不同了。我們對機會的興奮之情絲毫未減，因為我們仍然看到了機遇，仍然看到了透過自身交易獲得更大市場份額、超越規模較小的競爭對手的機會。如今的這個系列和 2012 年相比已經截然不同了。這應該能讓你感到樂觀，如果我們被要求達到 1%，那麼現在要達到 6% 就顯得輕而易舉了。

I wouldn't see it.

我不會看到的。

I'll let Ryan next time give me hard one.

下次我一定要讓瑞恩給我來個狠的。

So you're a hard one, Doug. Yes. Not easy, but like you're known on the Street definitely for throwing a real fast ball, like 101, you always nail everything. I go back to 2020. It said you had a bug in and who was living here.

道格，你真是個難纏的傢伙。是的。雖然不容易，但你在街頭以投出速度極快的球而聞名，例如101英里/小時，你總是能精準命中每一個球。我回到2020年。它說你家有竊聽器，也問是誰住在這裡。

I mean exactly what you're going to do. This wasn't like the most uncertain environment in the history of the world. There's been a couple of quarters here, though, where we've had an investor preview, and then you've fallen a little bit light. I'm a little worried you are over worked. But I'm wondering like -- where is the fast fall a little bit in terms of being able to like forecast adequately or accurately exactly what's going to happen?

我的意思是，你到底要做什麼。這並非世界歷史上最動盪不安的環境。不過，過去幾季我們舉行了投資人預覽會，但之後你們的業績卻略顯不足。我有點擔心你工作過度。但我很好奇——在能夠充分或準確地預測將會發生什麼方面，哪裡出現了快速下滑？

5% that we talked about in September. I did give you a heads up that there could be some slippage because of the large life sales. That's $11 million on a $3 billion quarter. So yes, that one I told you was coming. The adjustment in the contingent commission line that up to true up for an international program that sometimes have some 3-year rating on it.

我們在九月討論過的5%。我之前已經提醒過你，由於人壽保險銷售量龐大，可能會出現一些延誤。這相當於本季30億美元營收中的1,100萬美元。是的，我之前就說過那件事會發生。對或有佣金的調整，以修正國際項目有時需要進行的 3 年評級。

I just didn't have insight to it, but across about a contingent contract where we've probably got about 600 different contingent contracts that cost us $4 million to.

我對此並不了解，但就一份或有合約而言，我們可能有大約 600 份不同的或有合同，總共花費了我們 400 萬美元。

You're right. Of the $11 million out of $3 billion, I was off my game on those 2, half of it got past me. You're right. I missed $4 million out of $3 billion, sorry.

你說得對。在30億美元中的1,100萬美元裡，有200萬美元我沒把握好，一半都錯過了。你說得對。抱歉，我漏算了30億美元中的400萬美元。

Andrew Anderson, Jeffries.

安德魯安德森，杰弗里斯。

Just as we're thinking about kind of the building blocks to organic here, I think you've talked about international a bit as maybe being additive or incremental. I guess if I look at some international retail, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, it's kind of been like low single-digit year-to-date, are you expecting some uplift in '26 or kind of steady in that market?

就像我們正在思考有機農業的組成部分一樣，我想你之前也談到國際化可能是累積的或漸進的。我想，如果我看一些國際零售市場，例如英國、加拿大、澳洲和紐西蘭，今年迄今的成長幅度都只有個位數，您預計2026年這個市場會有所回升，還是會保持穩定？

Listen, I think right now, our businesses are performing about where they're going to perform next year. I got to say I'm always pleasantly surprised about our specialty business in the UK They are creative, they use our tools. They have great market insight. I'm really excited about the experts that we have in our business.

聽著，我認為我們目前的業務表現與明年的業務表現基本一致。我必須說，我總是能對我們在英國的專業業務感到驚喜。他們很有創意，而且善用我們的工具。他們擁有敏銳的市場洞察力。我對我們公司擁有的專家團隊感到非常興奮。

When we pick up the AP business, it makes our niches stronger. And also we're picking up some terrific new niches out of the AP where they've got some really smart people. So where we have our smart people, they hit it out of the park at the time, and we have the steady smart people that are in kind of tough markets. So I don't see a lot of difference between what we just talked about here this year, next year, our guys and gals are doing a terrific job out there of servicing their clients.

當我們涉足 AP 業務時，我們的細分市場會更加強大。而且，我們也從美聯社挖掘了一些非常棒的新領域，他們那裡有很多非常聰明的人。所以，我們有些聰明人，他們當時表現出色；而有些聰明人則比較穩健，但他們身處競爭激烈的市場中。所以我覺得今年和明年我們剛剛討論的內容不會有太大差別，我們的員工在為客戶提供服務方面做得非常出色。

And so I don't see a lot of difference. If that was the essence of the question, I am just not seeing us any places where we've got any weakness right now.

所以我覺得差別不大。如果這是問題的本質，那麼我目前看不到我們有任何弱點。

And then in the past, we've talked about maybe 6% organic underlying expansion of -- how should we think of maybe the sensitivity there if that growth is being led by specialty, which I would think is a little bit higher margin versus retail, which is maybe a little bit below. Any sensitivity would be thinking about there?

過去，我們曾討論過大約 6% 的有機潛在擴張——如果這種增長是由專業領域引領的，我們應該如何看待其中的敏感性呢？我認為專業領域的利潤率會比零售領域略高一些，而零售領域的利潤率可能略低一些。你會考慮到哪些敏感因素？

Listen, especially business is pretty complex. The professionals that we have on staff, to service that -- it's not just somebody that's the generalist that goes out and talks about how you're selling on an oil well or on a SpaceX cargo or on the marine placement. Those tend to actually have some heavier support cost that goes along with it and our benefits business, the actuarial services that we provide in particular, that coming out of the buck acquisition.

聽著，尤其是商業領域，情況相當複雜。我們公司有專業的員工來提供這項服務——他們不是那種只會到處談論如何推銷石油井、SpaceX 貨運或海洋定位產品的通才。這些實際上往往伴隨著更重的支援成本，而我們的福利業務，特別是我們提供的精算服務，這些成本都來自收購所得。

So I think our niche retail business, where we're really strong in a particular niche across -- it doesn't matter whether it's the US, Australia and New Zealand, so that runs a pretty good margin. So I wouldn't -- I wouldn't say that specialty is necessarily a laggard when -- that retail is a laggard to specialty when it comes to margins.

所以我認為，我們在特定細分市場擁有強大實力的利基零售業務——無論是在美國、澳洲還是紐西蘭——都取得了相當不錯的利潤率。所以，我不會說專賣店在利潤率上一定落後於專賣店。

Our next question is from David Motemaden with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 David Motemaden。

Just a quick one from me. I realize it might be a little bit too soon to tell, but thinking about the 200 bps headwind from roll-in on this quarter's Brokerage adjusted EBITDAC margin. How might we think about impact from rolling of M&A going forward?

我簡單說幾句。我知道現在下結論可能還為時過早，但考慮到本季經紀業務調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率因滾動調整而面臨的 200 個基點的不利影響。我們該如何看待未來併購交易滾動化的影響？

Good question. I think that, first of all, you have to think about the seasonality that we show on page 7 of only getting half a quarter -- not even half a quarter, 40% of a quarter and how that causes -- because you got more of a steady fixed cost structure on a lower 1.5 month period? How do I see it going forward? Let's just take the fourth quarter in particular, I think that AssuredPartners because of the seasonality of their business might hurt margin by about 1 point.

問得好。我認為，首先，你必須考慮我們在第 7 頁展示的季節性因素，即只能獲得半個季度——甚至不到半個季度，只有 40% 的季度，以及這會導致什麼——因為在較短的 1.5 個月期間，你獲得了更穩定的固定成本結構？我如何看待它未來的發展？就拿第四季來說，我認為 AssuredPartners 由於其業務的季節性，可能會使利潤率下降約 1 個百分點。

I think the roll-in of businesses that we bought that naturally run lower margins would probably be about 40 basis points of a headwind. I think that lesser interest income, et cetera, might be somewhere around 0.5 point, but the underlying margin we're seeing in the fourth quarter, still in that 40 to 60 basis points, 60 basis point expansion. So if you think in ranges like that, that we're going to get 0.5 point increase from organic. We're going to give back a point because of the seasonality of that assured and then the natural roll-in of M&A targets that have not yet reached our margin levels or is another 0.5 point out. So that's how I'm thinking about it.

我認為，我們收購的那些利潤率自然較低的業務的併入，可能會帶來約 40 個基點的不利影響。我認為利息收入減少等因素可能會造成 0.5 個百分點左右的損失，但我們在第四季度看到的實際利潤率仍然在 40 到 60 個基點之間，擴張 60 個基點。所以如果你以這樣的範圍來考慮，那麼我們從有機產品中獲得的提升將是 0.5 分。由於該保證金的季節性因素，以及尚未達到我們利潤率水平或還有 0.5 個百分點的併購目標的自然納入，我們將退還 1 分。我就是這麼想的。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Just a question on reinsurance brokerage. Just wanted you guys to help me out here. So you've been growing in excess of your two larger peers in this business for a while. It sounds like you're still confident here if pricing takes another leg downward, I'm just trying to gauge your confidence level in still being able to achieve like high single-digit organic here. And is that due to growth in adding new accounts?

關於再保險經紀業務，我有個問題。只是想請你們幫幫我。所以，你在這個行業的發展速度已經超過了你的兩位規模更大的同行一段時間了。聽起來你仍然對價格進一步下跌充滿信心，我只是想了解你對能否繼續實現接近兩位數的自然增長有多大信心。這是由於新增帳戶數量增長所致嗎？

Or is that growth in accounts that you already have?

或者，這是你現有帳戶的成長？

I think it's both, but I'll tell you one of the things that has worked out, Rob, at a level that I'm very, very proud of. When we did the Willis transaction, one of the things we told the investment community and our people is that we thought there was an advantage of making sure that our retail operations, our wholesale operations and our reinsurance operations were seen together on the same page, helping each other produce and service clients.

我認為兩者都是，但我可以告訴你一件事，羅布，這件事已經取得了一些成效，我為此感到非常非常自豪。當我們進行 Willis 交易時，我們告訴投資界和我們員工的一件事是，我們認為確保我們的零售業務、批發業務和再保險業務保持一致，互相幫助，從而更好地服務客戶，是有優勢的。

And frankly, that's a bit of a different model than some of our competitors. And that has worked to a level that I think is better than any of us expected. So our team is talking all the time. We are connected at the hip. You can see that the CIB, that's the council of insurance agents and brokers just had their there, round table, if you will, out at the Broad more a month ago.

坦白說，這和我們的一些競爭對手的模式有點不同。而且效果比我們任何人預期的都要好。所以我們的團隊一直在討論。我們形影不離。你可以看到，CIB（保險代理人和經紀人委員會）一個月前在布羅德酒店舉行了一次圓桌會議。

And the meetings are comprised of all the parties that are trading with those companies, the the discussion on strategies are together. And I think that's a big part of it.

會議由與這些公司進行交易的所有各方參加，大家共同討論策略。我認為這在其中起到了很大的作用。

And so I think that when I look at where we are, we've had good growth with our existing clients. We've been able to help them, and we're very appreciative of that, and we have added new accounts. Now the thing that I'm kind of excited about with AP, quite honestly, is that they're trading with a lot of smaller markets that we've never traded with. I won't get into a bunch of names, but you know them all. And yet we didn't really transact.

所以我覺得，從我們目前的情況來看，我們在現有客戶方面取得了良好的成長。我們已經幫助他們，對此我們非常感激，我們已經新增了一些帳戶。說實話，我對AP感到興奮的一點是，他們正在與許多我們從未與之進行過交易的小型市場進行交易。我就不一一列舉名字了，你們一定都認識他們。然而，我們實際上並沒有進行交易。

And AP has very good relations with those companies.

美聯社與這些公司關係非常好。

So coming out of the broad mall, we're kind of excited to say, this doesn't diminish our continued commitment to our large trading partners that we've had at Gallagher forever, but adding some new people to the list that AP already has a real partnership ship with, I think, once again, will be tied together at the hip. It will be good for production on all sides. So I think new account opportunities benefit of that as well as penetration from our existing business. I continue to be very, very bullish on reinsurance. I'm very impressed with our team there.

因此，我們很高興地宣布，這不會削弱我們對 Gallagher 一直以來的大型貿易夥伴的持續承諾，但 AP 已經與其建立了真正的合作夥伴關係，我認為，這將再次緊密聯繫在一起。這將對各方的生產都有好處。所以我認為，新客戶機會以及現有業務的滲透都會從中受益。我仍然非常非常看好再保險業。我對我們在那裡的團隊印象非常深刻。

We've got a very smart group of people.

我們擁有一群非常聰明的人。

Two other ads on that every time we open up a new carrier relationship on the retail side and have it opens up the opportunity to not only do reinsurance, but also to do claims management forum. Our Gallagher Basser unit has a terrific carrier outsourced practice on that. And that's not runoff, that's carrier outsourced of white labeling their programs.

每次我們在零售方面建立新的承運商關係時，都會有另外兩個廣告，這不僅為我們提供了再保險的機會，也為我們提供了理賠管理論壇的機會。我們 Gallagher Basser 部門在這方面有著非常出色的承運商外包實務經驗。那不是剩餘價值，而是營運商外包的貼牌程式。

And the second thing to do is on our reinsurance business, we are really strong in casualty. So another step down in property. I think there's going to be lots of appetite to buy more reinsurance, but we are pretty heavy in casualty. So that -- you can't think about the entire reinsurance book as being a cap property book. Hope that helps.

第二件事是關於我們再保險業務，我們在意外險方面實力非常強勁。這是房產投資的另一個降級。我認為市場對購買更多再保險的需求會很大，但我們在意外險方面的投入已經相當大了。所以——你不能把整個再保險業務都看成是一個有上限的財產保險業務。希望對您有幫助。

That's super helpful. And just wanted to follow up on contingents. I mean, profitability for these insurers seems to be pretty good. And I think those are a little lag there. So I'm just curious if your thought process on contingents plays into your thought process on relatively stable organic growth next year?

這太有幫助了。我只是想跟進一下緊急應變計畫。我的意思是，這些保險公司的獲利能力似乎相當不錯。我覺得這方面有點滯後。所以我很好奇，你對突發事件的思考是否會影響你對明年相對穩定的自然成長的思考？

Yes. I mean I think, look, when the carriers are doing well, and we're on a contingent commission, and that's a very big part of what we're doing is wholesalers, MGAs and program managers, we do well. So I feel good about that. and we're pleased to see those carriers that we've been representing and partnering with doing well, and we'll get our fair share of contingency on that.

是的。我的意思是，你看，當運營商運作良好時，而我們又按業績提成，而我們業務的很大一部分是與批發商、MGA 和專案經理合作，那麼我們就能獲得不錯的收益。所以我對此感到欣慰。我們很高興看到我們一直代理和合作的那些保險公司發展良好，我們也會從中獲得應有的收益分成。

Now the other side of that is that we have supplementals, which are not subject to profitability but are subject to growth. And there, again, I think we're seeing very good growth. And I do also believe that the arrangements that we have with many of the carriers that AP does trade with, our arrangements are strong in there. So we're going to -- they're going to benefit from that. So all in all, I feel good about our supplementals and contingents going into next year.

另一方面，我們還有一些補充產品，雖然不以獲利為目的，但卻可以成長。而且，我認為我們在這方面也看到了非常好的成長。而且我也相信，我們與AP合作的許多運營商之間的協議非常穩固。所以我們會——他們會從中受益。總而言之，我對我們明年的補充隊伍和代表團充滿信心。

Yes. In fact, they are growing at about 1.5x as fast organically is what we're growing in the retail -- in the applicable books of business. So they are outpacing slightly on the organic growth. And as we think about next year being like -- we're not expecting a spike up in those or a spike down. The carrier profitability is good as it could -- that could be a little bit of an upside case and organic for next year.

是的。事實上，它們的有機成長速度大約是我們零售業務成長速度的 1.5 倍——在相關的業務帳簿中。所以，它們的自然成長速度略微超過了平均值。展望明年，我們預計這些指標不會激增或驟降。該航空公司的獲利能力目前處於良好水平——這可能預示著明年將出現一些利好因素，並有望實現自然成長。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO資本市場。

The organic viewpoint next year, what's your estimate of embedded in there on lumpy life sales? I know you guys don't love us asking about it or maybe I'm wrong, but you do keep bringing it up. So I feel like I have to ask.

從有機角度來看，您估計明年受生活波動影響的銷售額會是多少？我知道你們不喜歡我們問這個問題，或許我錯了，但你們確實一直在提起它。所以我覺得我必須問一下。

No, actually, we don't mind you asking about it all because I think it's informative on some of these small little -- a couple of million dollars here, a couple of million dollars a year. We think we'll have a good year next year as rates drop, next year, if you believe that to happen, either one or two things are going to happen. Rates are going to drop, and so they're going to have people that want to come in and buy this because it's a cheaper product from, so that should fuel demand. If rates become stable, we're not going to have people wait around for the next drop.

不，其實我們不介意你問這些，因為我認為這對了解一些小事很有幫助——比如這裡幾百萬美元，每年幾百萬美元。我們認為明年利率下降，情況會好轉；如果你相信明年利率會下降，那麼要么會發生這樣一件事，要么會發生兩件事。利率將會下降，因此會有人想來購買這種產品，因為它價格更便宜，這應該會刺激需求。如果利率趨於穩定，就不會有人等利率再次下跌了。

So I think -- and a lot of these are products that you have to buy them at a certain point. So you can play with timing the market by a quarter or 2. But by and large, I don't see -- I see '26 being a more favorable drop -- backdrop for these products than '25 was. Now over the course of the year, they don't vary all that much in total magnitude. It's this noise between quarters that sometimes causes us to talk about a lot.

所以我覺得——而且很多這類產品你到了某個時候就必須購買。所以你可以嘗試提前一個季度或兩個季度來把握市場時機。但總的來說，我認為 2026 年的市場環境比 2025 年更有利於這些產品的銷售。現在，從一年中來看，它們的總幅度變化並不大。正是比賽間隙的這種嘈雜聲，有時讓我們聊了很多。

It's a great product. We're really good at it. It's needed, it's necessary. And I think '26, we could be pretty excited about it. But it hasn't influenced our pick in terms of what we see for next year.

這是一款很棒的產品。我們真的很擅長這件事。這是必要的，這是必須的。我認為2026年，我們可能會非常興奮。但這並沒有影響我們對明年趨勢的預測。

But I can see an upside case on that, too.

但我認為這樣做也有正面的一面。

Okay. So not quantifying it, but I guess I asked and that was asked is -- if we look at the RPC trends in recent quarters, and I think you unpack some of your thoughts next year for property to David's question. It would kind of would imply that if we assume the current RPC trend sticks that 6% to 8% is just -- is a high bar, unless there's just like other factors, which maybe it's lumpy life, and you just alluded to maybe there's maybe there's the contingent and sub trend growing faster or it's reinsurance. So I know I'm saying a lot, but maybe is there, should we not be focusing on kind of the RPC as much as we used to because there's kind of other levers you have to pull on organic to be able to to do so well next year on a decelerating kind of pricing environment?

好的。所以，雖然不能量化，但我想我問的是——如果我們看看最近幾季的 RPC 趨勢，我想你明年可以就 David 的問題談談你對房地產的一些看法。這似乎意味著，如果我們假設當前的 RPC 趨勢持續下去，那麼 6% 到 8% 就是一個非常高的目標，除非還有其他因素，例如生活波動，你剛才也提到過，也許有或有子趨勢增長更快，或者再保險。我知道我說了很多，但是或許我們不應該像以前那樣過多關注 RPC（每千次展示成本），因為在價格增速放緩的環境下，要想在明年取得好成績，還需要在有機增長方面採取其他措施？

Listen, we've always said that -- again, I'll go back to my first comment on one of the first questions today is we're in this opt-in era when it comes to coverages. So that would be the departure from as people get cuts in their base rate, they're going to buy more insurance. So that should fuel next year. I believe there's a lot of underbuying of insurance that's going on. I think that people over the last five years have underbought.

聽著，我們一直都這麼說——再說一遍，我今天對第一個問題的評論是，就保險覆蓋範圍而言，我們正處於選擇加入的時代。所以，隨著人們基本保費的降低，他們會購買更多的保險，這與之前的情況有所不同。所以這應該能為明年提供動力。我認為目前存在大量保險購買不足的情況。我認為過去五年人們的購買力不足。

I think that we still -- there's a big elephant in the room and that is replacement cost. I don't believe -- I think the carriers have paused and trying to get rate for that. a little bit. I think they've got to get back on that because replacement costs are still skyrocketing.

我認為我們仍然面臨著一個顯而易見卻又難以啟齒的問題，那就是重置成本。我不相信——我認為運營商已經暫停運營，並試圖爭取更低的費率。稍微有點兒。我認為他們必須重新重視這個問題，因為更換成本仍在飛漲。

And so I think there'll be -- there's an upside case there as carriers get back on trying to get more rate for the exposures that are underinsured values on that. So it's not a direct correlation by any means. That's why we weren't growing our property business 20% when property was up 20%. We're growing half of that. So that's the area that we're in right now is that people are going to opt in to buy more coverages.

所以我認為，隨著保險公司重新開始努力為那些保險不足的風險敞口爭取更高的費率，這方面會有上漲的跡象。所以這絕對不是直接的相關性。這就是為什麼當房地產價格上漲 20% 時，我們的房地產業務卻沒有成長 20% 的原因。我們佔了其中一半。所以，我們現在所處的階段是，人們會選擇購買更多的保險。

I think we're going to win our business because we get to use our tools and resources to demonstrate in a calmer environment that you get more from buying through Gallagher. The value we're bringing, I think clients see that. Our retention is good.

我認為我們會贏得這筆生意，因為我們可以利用我們的工具和資源，在一個更平靜的環境中證明，透過 Gallagher 購買產品能獲得更多收益。我認為客戶能夠看到我們所帶來的價值。我們的員工留存率很好。

Like Pat said, there are some main re clients that probably are going to -- want to get a new fresh base across the table. But I think our team is doing a good job to show you stick with us, and we'll get you through this.

正如 Pat 所說，一些主要的再投資客戶可能會想要重新建立一個新的基礎。但我認為我們的團隊做得很好，向你證明，請堅持和我們一起，我們會帶你度過難關。

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe just lastly on M&A. So to the extent -- I'm sure you guys will hit your targets on Assured in terms of all the synergies and whatnot. Clearly, it will be a great deal for everybody.

好的。那很有幫助。最後，或許可以談談併購。所以，就綜效等方面而言，我相信你們在 Assured 專案上一定能達成目標。顯然，這對每個人來說都是一件好事。

So curious if there's other assurers out there. Obviously, there's a lot of roll-ups out there. But I recall, Pat, you said that for Assured, you didn't get a look at later of those properties that Assure had purchased, so you kind of felt more comfortable doing this deal because they didn't say no to to Gallagher in the past. But -- so are there similar ones out there? Or maybe you just would be willing to do more of just other roll-ups that might have been looked at Gallagher in the past too?

很好奇是否有其他保險公司。顯然，市面上有很多捲簾門。但我記得，帕特，你說過，對於 Assure 公司，你後來沒有機會查看 Assure 公司收購的那些房產，所以你覺得做這筆交易更放心，因為他們過去沒有拒絕 Gallagher 公司的收購。但是——市面上還有類似的嗎？或者，您願意做更多像 Gallagher 過去可能考慮過的其他類型的總結分析？

Yes, I think there's a lot of them. I do. I think there's a lot. And I also think that -- remember, there's 30,000 agents and brokers that's firms in America -- that are independent firms. So there's lots of opportunities for us to continue building our pipeline and should another opportunity like an Assured come along, we'll take a very hard look at it.

是的，我覺得有很多。我願意。我覺得有很多。而且我認為——記住，美國有 30,000 家代理商和經紀公司——它們都是獨立公司。因此，我們有很多機會繼續拓展我們的業務管道，如果再出現像 Assured 這樣的機會，我們會認真考慮。

But I think it should be clear, like you say, there are so many terrific family-owned agencies out there that I think that we're going to get our fair share of those along the way too. So we love our tuck-in strategy. But if there's a big one that comes along and only 5% of them told us no, when we were looking at them, I think that would be a terrific opportunity for us.

但我認為應該很清楚，就像你說的，市面上有很多非常優秀的家族企業，所以我認為我們也會在這個過程中得到相當一部分這樣的企業。所以我們很喜歡這種塞進嘴裡吃東西的方式。但如果出現一個大型項目，而我們在考察時只有 5% 的項目方拒絕了我們，我認為這對我們來說將是一個絕佳的機會。

Well, thank you again, everyone, for joining us. We've had a great 2025 thus far. And as you can tell, I remain very excited about the rest of the year and beyond. To our now 71,000-plus colleagues, thank you for all that you do for our clients day in and day out. We've got the best team in the industry, and I think it shows.

再次感謝各位的參與。到目前為止，我們的2025年過得非常棒。正如你所看到的，我對今年剩下的時間以及未來仍然充滿期待。致我們超過 71,000 位同事，感謝你們日復一日為我們的客戶所做的一切。我們擁有業內最優秀的團隊，我認為這已經證明了這一點。

Thank you all for sticking around late in the evening, and have a good rest of the evening.

感謝各位熬夜到這麼晚，祝大家今晚剩下的時間愉快。

Thank you. This does conclude our conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。我們的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了，感謝您的參與。