Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

午安.歡迎參加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call.

本次電話會議期間發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義內的前瞻性陳述。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的資訊或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements in Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。請參閱該公司最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的風險因素部分中有關前瞻性陳述的信息，以了解有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息。

In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

此外，有關本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則措施的調節以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益發布和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher Junior, Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 董事長兼執行長 J. Patrick Gallagher Junior。加拉格爾先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third-quarter '24 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO, other members of the management team, and heads of our operating divisions.

非常感謝。大家下午好，感謝您參加我們 24 年第三季的財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的財務長 Doug Howell、管理團隊的其他成員以及營運部門的負責人。

Before I get to my comments about our financial results, I'd like to acknowledge the damage and devastation caused by the recent storms and floods. Our thoughts are with those impacted by these events, including our own Gallagher colleagues. Our professionals are hard at work, helping clients sort through their coverages, file claims and ultimately get losses paid. I'm really honored to be part of a company and an industry with such an important responsibility, helping families, businesses and communities rebuild and restore their lives. And that's a noble cause.

在對我們的財務表現發表評論之前，我想承認最近的風暴和洪水造成的損失和破壞。我們與那些受這些事件影響的人同在，包括我們自己的加拉格爾同事。我們的專業人員正在努力工作，幫助客戶整理保險範圍、提出索賠並最終獲得損失賠償。我真的很榮幸能夠成為一家公司和行業的一員，肩負著如此重要的責任，幫助家庭、企業和社區重建和恢復他們的生活。這是一個崇高的事業。

Okay. On to my comments regarding our financial performance. We had a great third quarter. For our combined brokerage and risk management segments, we posted 13% growth in revenue, 6% organic growth, which does not include interest income. Reported net earnings margin of 15.5%, adjusted EBITDAC margin of 31.9%, up 123 basis points year over year. GAAP earnings per share of $1.90 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.72, up 16% year over year, another fantastic operating quarter by the team.

好的。關於我對我們財務表現的評論。我們第三季表現出色。對於我們的綜合經紀和風險管理部門，我們的收入成長了 13%，有機成長 6%，其中不包括利息收入。報告淨利潤率為 15.5%，調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 31.9%，較去年同期成長 123 個基點。 GAAP 每股收益為 1.90 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.72 美元，年增 16%，這是該團隊的另一個出色營運季度。

Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 13%. Organic growth was right in line with our expectations at 6%, which as we forecasted, reflects about 1 point of timing headwind from those large life cases we have highlighted over the past couple of quarters. Doug will provide you with some good news from October related to these sales in his remarks. Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 137 basis points to 33.6%, which was better than our IR Day expectations.

從經紀業務開始，轉向以細分市場為基礎的業績。報告營收成長 13%。有機成長與我們 6% 的預期相符，正如我們預測的那樣，這反映了我們在過去幾季強調的那些大型生命案例中約 1 個時間點的逆風。道格將在他的演講中為您提供 10 月與這些銷售相關的一些好消息。調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大 137 個基點至 33.6%，優於我們 IR Day 的預期。

Let me give some insights behind our Brokerage segment organic. Within our PC retail operations, we delivered 5% in the US and 7% outside the US. Internationally, Australia and New Zealand led the way with organic of more than 10%, the UK was up 6%, and Canada was flattish. Our global employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of about 4% and a few points higher, excluding the timing differences from the large life case sales.

讓我談談我們的經紀業務有機背後的一些見解。在我們的 PC 零售業務中，我們在美國交付 5%，在美國以外交付 7%。在國際上，澳洲和紐西蘭以超過 10% 的有機成長率領先，英國成長了 6%，加拿大則持平。我們的全球員工福利經紀和顧問業務有機成長約 4%，略高幾個百分點，不包括大型生命案例銷售的時間差異。

Shifting to our reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses, overall organic of 8%, so very strong growth, whether retail, wholesale or reinsurance.

轉向我們的再保險、批發和專業業務，整體有機成長率為 8%，無論是零售、批發或再保險，成長都非常強勁。

Next, let me provide some thoughts on the PC insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Global third-quarter renewal premiums, which include both rate and exposure, were up 5% and little changed from the 6% we discussed at our September IR Day update a few weeks ago. Most lines and geographies had very similar renewal premium changes through all three months of the quarter with a couple of exceptions.

接下來，我將從主保險市場開始，談談個人保險定價環境的一些想法。全球第三季續保保費（包括費率和風險敞口）上漲了 5%，與我們幾週前在 9 月投資者關係日更新中討論的 6% 相比變化不大。除少數例外外，大多數線路和地區在本季度的全部三個月內續保費變化非常相似。

September casualty renewal increases outside the US were lower relative to July and August, driven by changes in business mix. Additionally, large account and E&S property renewal premium increases were a bit less in September than the first two months of the quarter. But neither of these appear to be a trend.

受業務組合變化的推動，9 月美國以外地區的傷亡人數增幅低於 7 月和 8 月。此外，9 月大帳戶和 E&S 財產續保保費增幅略低於本季前兩個月。但這些似乎都不是一種趨勢。

Thus far in October, we are seeing large account property and international casualty renewal premium increases higher than September. Breaking down third-quarter renewal premium changes by product line, we saw the following: property up 4%, general liability, up 6%; commercial auto, up 7%; umbrella, up 10%; workers' comp, up 2%; D&O, down about 5%; cyber was flat; and personal lines up 11%.

到目前為止，10 月份，我們看到大帳戶財產和國際傷亡續保保費的增幅高於 9 月份。依產品線細分第三季續保保費變化，我們發現：財產險成長 4%，一般責任險成長 6%；商用車，上漲7%；雨傘，上漲10%；工人補償，上漲2%； D&O，下跌約5%；網路是平坦的；個人線路成長 11%。

So overall, increases continued to be broad based and rational in our view, with carriers still cautious in pushing for rate where it's needed to generate an acceptable underwriting profit. We shine in this environment. Our job as brokers is to help clients find the best coverage while mitigating premium increases. So while not all of the increases ultimately show up in our organic, a rational market allows us to further differentiate ourselves with our leading tools, data and expertise.

因此，總體而言，我們認為，價格上漲仍然是基礎廣泛且理性的，承運商在推動費率以產生可接受的承保利潤方面仍持謹慎態度。我們在這樣的環境中閃閃發光。身為經紀人，我們的工作是幫助客戶找到最佳承保範圍，同時減少保費上漲。因此，雖然並非所有成長最終都體現在我們的有機成長中，但理性的市場使我們能夠利用領先的工具、數據和專業知識進一步使自己脫穎而出。

Let me shift to the reinsurance market. The July 1 renewal season saw modest property price declines concentrated at the top end of reinsurance towers while casualty renewal saw terms and conditions tighten. And some modest price increases concentrated in the US. Clearly, a lot has happened in the property market over the past month which is now adding some complexity to January 1 property renewals. It's still early, but we now believe a flattish renewal is more likely than the downward pressure previously being discussed. And don't forget, US hurricane season is not over for another month.

讓我轉向再保險市場。 7 月 1 日續保季節，房地產價格小幅下跌，集中在再保險塔的頂端，而傷亡續保則導致條款和條件收緊。一些溫和的價格上漲集中在美國。顯然，過去一個月房地產市場發生了很多事情，這為 1 月 1 日的房地產更新增加了一些複雜性。現在還為時過早，但我們現在認為，比之前討論的下行壓力更有可能出現平淡的更新。不要忘記，美國颶風季節還有一個月才結束。

For casualty risks, we believe reinsurance will remain cautious heading into next year, especially if there is more noise related to US reserve adequacy. We think differentiating underwriting practices will likely be the key to a successful renewal for clients. Overall, the reinsurance industry remains adequately capitalized and is likely to meet capacity demands at the upcoming January 1 renewals. We continue to believe Gallagher Re will perform very well in 2025 regardless of how the market environment unfolds in the near term.

對於傷亡風險，我們認為進入明年再保險將保持謹慎，特別是如果與美國儲備充足性相關的噪音增多的話。我們認為，差異化的核保實務可能是客戶成功續約的關鍵。總體而言，再保險業資本充足，很可能在即將到來的 1 月 1 日續保時滿足容量需求。我們仍然相信，無論短期內市場環境如何發展，Gallagher Re 將在 2025 年表現出色。

Moving to some comments on our customers' business activity. Our daily revenue indications from audits, endorsements and cancellations were again in positive territory for the third quarter. While the amount of upward revenue adjustments isn't as much as 2023, they are running in line with 2022. So client business activity remains solid, and we are not seeing any signs of meaningful global economic slowdown.

接下來談談對我們客戶的業務活動的一些評論。第三季度，我們來自審計、認可和取消的每日收入指標再次呈現正值。雖然收入上調的幅度沒有 2023 年那麼多，但與 2022 年的情況一致。

Within the US, the labor market is on solid footing. In fact, the number of open jobs increased in August and remained well above the number of unemployed people looking for work. Overall job growth, upward wage pressure, and rising medical cost inflation continue to challenge employers looking for ways to grow their workforce and control their benefits costs.

在美國，勞動市場基礎穩固。事實上，八月份空缺職位數量有所增加，並且仍遠高於尋找工作的失業人數。整體就業成長、薪資上漲壓力和不斷上升的醫療成本通膨繼續對尋找增加勞動力和控制福利成本的方法的雇主構成挑戰。

Regardless of market or economic conditions, I believe we are well positioned to take market share across our brokerage business. Remember, about 90% of the time, we are competing against the smaller local broker that cannot match our client value proposition, niche expertise, outstanding service and our extensive data and analytics offerings. Putting this all together, we continue to see full year '24 brokerage organic around 7.5%, and that would be another outstanding year.

無論市場或經濟狀況如何，我相信我們都處於有利地位，可以在我們的經紀業務中佔據市場份額。請記住，大約90% 的時候，我們正在與規模較小的本地經紀商競爭，這些經紀商無法與我們的客戶價值主張、利基專業知識、出色的服務以及我們廣泛的數據和分析產品相匹配。綜上所述，我們繼續看到 24 年全年經紀業務的有機成長率約為 7.5%，這將是另一個出色的一年。

Moving on to our risk management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Revenue growth was 12%, including organic of 6%. We continue to benefit from excellent client retention, increases in customer business activity, rising claim counts and new business wins. Adjusted EBITDAC margin was 20.8%, 35 basis points higher than last year and a bit above our September IR Day expectation. Looking ahead, we see organic in the fourth quarter around 7% and full-year organic pushing 9%. Margins for fourth quarter and full year should be in the 20.5% range, and that too would be another outstanding year.

接下來是我們的風險管理部分，Gallagher Bassett。營收成長 12%，其中有機成長 6%。我們繼續受益於出色的客戶保留率、客戶業務活動的增加、索賠數量的增加和新業務的贏得。調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 20.8%，比去年高出 35 個基點，略高於我們 9 月投資者關係日的預期。展望未來，我們預計第四季的有機成長約為 7%，全年有機成長將達到 9%。第四季和全年的利潤率應該在 20.5% 的範圍內，這也將是另一個出色的一年。

Shifting to mergers and acquisitions. During the third quarter, we remained disciplined completing four new mergers at fair prices, representing $47 million of estimated annualized revenue. For those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the Gallagher family of professionals.

轉向併購。在第三季度，我們仍然嚴格地按照公平價格完成了四項新的合併，預計將年化收入為 4,700 萬美元。對於加入我們的新合作夥伴，我謹向加拉格爾專業人士大家庭表示熱烈歡迎。

Looking ahead, we have more than 100 mergers in our pipeline, representing approximately $1.5 billion of annualized revenue. Of these 100 potential partners, we have about 60 turn sheets signed or being prepared representing around $700 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher.

展望未來，我們正在進行 100 多項合併，年收入約 15 億美元。在這 100 個潛在合作夥伴中，我們已簽署或正在準備約 60 個轉單，代表著約 7 億美元的年收入。好的公司總是有選擇的，如果他們選擇與加拉格爾合作那就太好了。

Let me conclude with some comments regarding our culture. As we passed our 40th anniversary as a public company, I believe our greatest differentiator continues to be our bedrock culture. It's a culture that runs towards problems, not away from them, a culture that supports one another and embraces teamwork, a culture that is grounded in the highest standards of moral and ethical behavior. It's a culture that will continue to guide our success for many years to come.

最後讓我對我們的文化發表一些評論。在我們成為上市公司 40 週年之際，我相信我們最大的差異化因素仍然是我們的基石文化。這是一種直面問題而不是迴避問題的文化，一種相互支持並擁抱團隊合作的文化，一種植根於最高道德和倫理行為標準的文化。這種文化將在未來許多年繼續引導我們成功。

Frankly, we love this business. We enjoy taking care of our customers, and that is the Gallagher way. Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

坦白說，我們喜歡這個行業。我們喜歡照顧我們的客戶，這就是加拉格爾的方式。好的。我現在停下來，把它交給道格。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll walk you through our earnings release. First, I'll comment on third-quarter organic growth and margins by segment. Then I'll provide an update on how we are seeing organic growth and margin shape up for fourth quarter and provide an early look on '25.

謝謝帕特，大家好。今天，我將向您介紹我們的收益發布。首先，我將按部門評論第三季的有機成長和利潤率。然後我將提供有關我們如何看待第四季度有機成長和利潤率變化的最新信息，並提供 25 年的早期展望。

Next, I'll move to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our IR website and walk you through our typical modeling helpers, and I'll conclude my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M&A and capital management.

接下來，我將轉到我們在IR 網站上發布的CFO 評論文件，並向您介紹我們典型的建模助手，我將以我對現金、併購和資本管理的通常評論來結束我準備好的評論。

Okay. Let's flip to page 3 of the earnings release. Headline brokerage segment third quarter organic growth of 6% without interest income. That's right in line with our September IR Day forecast during which we signaled about a point of headwind due to the timing of large life sales. Recall that these live products are interest rate sensitive. So as we've been discussing, clients were waiting for lower interest rates.

好的。讓我們翻到財報發布的第三頁。頭部經紀業務第三季有機成長 6%（不含利息收入）。這與我們對 9 月份投資者關係日的預測一致，當時我們表示，由於大額壽險銷售的時機，將出現逆風。回想一下，這些即時產品對利率敏感。正如我們一直在討論的那樣，客戶正在等待更低的利率。

Well, the good news, Pat mentioned happened over the last month or so. We are now seeing clients fund their policies. In fact, here in October, we have already caught up more than half of what had slipped from earlier quarters. So the quarterly lumpiness that we have been highlighting throughout the year is starting to swing the other way here in October. And thus, we are currently seeing fourth quarter organic towards 8% and full year pushing 7.5%.

帕特提到，好消息是在過去一個月左右發生的。我們現在看到客戶為他們的保單提供資金。事實上，在十月份，我們已經彌補了前幾季下滑的一半以上。因此，我們全年一直強調的季度波動性在 10 月開始轉向另一個方向。因此，我們目前預計第四季的有機成長將達到 8%，全年將成長 7.5%。

As we start the budget for '25, our early thinking is brokerage segment full-year organic growth might be in the 6% to 8% range. If so, that could mean '25 similar to how '24 might ultimately play out. We'll provide some more on our 2025 thinking at our December IR day.

當我們開始製定 25 年的預算時，我們的早期想法是經紀業務全年有機成長可能在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內。如果是這樣，這可能意味著「25」的結果與「24」最終的結果類似。我們將在 12 月的 IR 日提供更多有關 2025 年想法的資訊。

But an early read through is we remain upbeat on our ability to grow given the investments we have been making in the business from adding niche experts to rolling out new sales and support tools to expanding our data and analytics offerings. We believe these actions are leading to higher new business production and strong client retention across the globe. And as Pat described, the market environment is still a tailwind for us.

但早期的解讀是，鑑於我們在業務上進行的投資，從增加利基專家到推出新的銷售和支援工具，再到擴展我們的數據和分析產品，我們對我們的成長能力保持樂觀。我們相信這些行動將帶來更高的新業務產量和全球範圍內強大的客戶保留率。正如帕特所描述的，市場環境對我們來說仍然是有利的。

Flipping now to page 5 of the earnings release to the brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 33.6%, up 137 basis points over last year and above the upper end of our September IR Day expectations. Let me walk you through a bridge from last year.

現在翻到收益發布的第 5 頁，查看經紀業務調整後的 EBITDAC 表。第三季調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 33.6%，比去年增長 137 個基點，高於我們 9 月投資者關係日預期的上限。讓我帶你走過去年的一座橋。

First, if you pull out last year's 2023 third-quarter earnings release, you would see we reported back then adjusted EBITDAC margin of 32.4%. But now using current period FX rates, that would have been 32.2%. Then organic and interest gave us nearly 150 basis points of expansion this quarter. Finally, the impact of M&A and divestitures used about 10 basis points of margin this quarter.

首先，如果你拿出去年的 2023 年第三季財報，你會發現我們當時報告的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 32.4%。但現在如果使用當前匯率，則為 32.2%。然後，有機和利息使我們本季實現了近 150 個基點的擴張。最後，併購和資產剝離的影響使本季的利潤率下降了約 10 個基點。

You follow that, and that will get you to third quarter '24 margin of 33.6%, and that's the 137 basis points of brokerage margin expansion. That is really, really great work by the team.

依照這個計算，2024 年第三季的利潤率將達到 33.6%，也就是經紀業務利潤率擴張的 137 個基點。這真的是團隊的偉大工作。

As we look ahead to fourth quarter '24, we are still expecting margin expansion in the 90 to 100 basis point range. And again, that would be off of fourth-quarter '23 adjusted margin for FX, which currently is estimated to be about 20 basis points lower than last year's headline margin of 31.6%. If we do that, that would mean full-year '24 could show about 70 basis points of margin expansion and 90 basis points, excluding the first quarter impact from the roll-in of the Buck merger.

當我們展望 24 年第四季時，我們仍然預期利潤率將擴大在 90 至 100 個基點範圍內。同樣，這將低於 23 年第四季調整後的外匯利潤率，目前估計該外匯利潤率比去年 31.6% 的總體利潤率低約 20 個基點。如果我們這樣做，那就意味著 24 年全年的利潤率可能會成長約 70 個基點和 90 個基點，不包括巴克合併帶來的第一季影響。

Okay. Let's move on to the risk management segment and the organic and EBITDAC tables on pages 5 and 6. It was another solid quarter. We posted organic of 6%, that's 1 point lower than our IR day guidance because we just miss qualifying for a full revenue bonus related to one large account.

好的。讓我們繼續討論第 5 頁和第 6 頁的風險管理部分以及有機和 EBITDAC 表格。我們發布的有機利率為 6%，比我們的 IR 日指導低 1 個百分點，因為我們錯過了與一個大帳戶相關的全額收入獎金的資格。

That said, Gallagher Bassett continues to see excellent client retention and strong new business production and still delivered an adjusted EBITDAC margin of 20.8%, which is up 35 basis points over prior year and ahead of our IR Day expectation.

儘管如此，Gallagher Bassett 仍然保持著出色的客戶保留率和強勁的新業務產出，並且調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率仍然達到 20.8%，比上年增長 35 個基點，超出了我們 IR Day 的預期。

Looking forward, we see organic of 7% and margins around 20.5% in the fourth quarter. If we were to post that, we would finish the year with organic pushing 9% and margins of approximately 20.5%. That, too, would be great work by the team. As for '25, our early thinking is for organic growth similar to the brokerage segment, call it in that 6% to 8% range.

展望未來，我們預期第四季有機成長率為 7%，利潤率約為 20.5%。如果我們把這個數字公佈出來，我們今年的有機成長率將達到 9%，利潤率約為 20.5%。這對團隊來說也是一項偉大的工作。至於 25 年，我們早期的想法是實現類似經紀業務的有機成長，稱之為 6% 到 8% 的範圍。

Turning now to page 6 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. In total, adjusted third quarter numbers for interest in banking, clean energy and acquisition costs came in within our September IR Day expectations. The corporate line of the corporate segment was below our expectations due to approximately $9 million of additional unrealized noncash foreign exchange remeasurement expense that developed during September and wasn't included in our IR Day forecast.

現在翻到收益發布的第 6 頁和公司部門快捷方式表。整體而言，調整後的第三季銀行業利息、清潔能源和收購成本數據均在我們 9 月份投資人關係日的預期之內。企業部門的企業線低於我們的預期，因為 9 月產生了約 900 萬美元的額外未實現非現金外匯重新計量費用，且未包含在我們的投資者關係日預測中。

After tax, call it about $0.03. That has already reversed here in October. So it really is a noncash, nothing in our opinion, but the accounting does cause some noise.

稅後，大約為 0.03 美元。十月情況已經逆轉。所以它確實是一種非現金，我們認為沒什麼，但會計確實引起了一些噪音。

Let's now move to the CFO commentary document. Starting on page 3, modeling helpers, there's no new news here other than FX, so just consider these updated revenue and EPS impacts as you update your models.

現在讓我們來看看 CFO 評論檔。從第 3 頁開始，建模助手，除了 FX 之外，這裡沒有新消息，因此在更新模型時只需考慮這些更新的收入和 EPS 影響。

Turning to the corporate segment on page 4 of the CFO commentary document. No change to our outlook for fourth quarter.

轉向 CFO 評論文件第 4 頁的公司部分。我們對第四季的展望沒有改變。

Flipping now to page 5 to our tax credit carryforwards shows $796 million at September 30. While this benefit won't show up in the P&L, it does benefit our cash flow for the next few years, which helps us fund future M&A.

現在翻到第5 頁，我們的稅收抵免結轉顯示截至9 月30 日的金額為7.96 億美元。流，這有助於我們為未來的併購提供資金。

Turning to page 6, the investment income table. We are now embedding [225] basis point rate cuts in the fourth quarter of '24 and have updated our estimates in this table for current FX rates. Punchline here is our fourth-quarter estimate does not change much from what we provided at our September IR day.

翻到第6頁，投資收益表。我們現在將在 2024 年第四季降息 [225] 個基點，並更新了我們在此表中對當前匯率的估計。有趣的是，我們對第四季度的預測與我們在 9 月份投資者關係日提供的預測相比沒有太大變化。

Shifting down that page to the rollover revenue table, the third-quarter '24 column subtotal is $111 million and $141 million before divestitures. These are consistent with our September IR Day expectations.

將該頁面向下移動到滾動收入表，24 年第三季的小計為 1.11 億美元，剝離前為 1.41 億美元。這些與我們 9 月投資者關係日的預期一致。

Looking forward, the pinkish columns to the right include estimated revenues for brokerage M&A through closed through yesterday. So just a reminder, you'll need to make a pick for future M&A. And when you move down on that page, you'll see the risk management segment rollover revenues for fourth-quarter '24 are expected to be approximately $15 million.

展望未來，右側的粉紅色欄包括截至昨天結束的券商併購的預期收入。所以提醒一下，您需要為未來的併購做出選擇。當您向下移動該頁面時，您將看到 2024 年第四季風險管理部門的展期收入預計約為 1500 萬美元。

So moving to cash capital management and M&A funding. Available cash on hand at September 30 was about $1.2 billion. Considering this balance and our strong expected free cash flow, we are in an excellent position to fund our robust pipeline of M&A opportunities here in '24.

因此轉向現金資本管理和併購融資。截至 9 月 30 日，手頭上可用現金約為 12 億美元。考慮到這種平衡和我們強勁的預期自由現金流，我們處於有利地位，可以為 24 年強勁的併購機會提供資金。

We currently estimate capacity of around $3 billion for M&A here in '24 and is looking like we could have another $4 billion to fund M&A in '25, all while making solid -- maintaining a solid investment-grade rating.

我們目前估計 24 年這裡的併購能力約為 30 億美元，並且看起來我們可能會在 25 年再有 40 億美元為併購提供資金，同時保持穩健的投資級評級。

So it's another excellent quarter in the books. Through the first nine months of the year for our combined Brokerage and risk management segments, we have delivered revenues up 16%; organic growth of 8%, net earnings, up 20%; adjusted EBITDAC, up 18%; and adjusted EPS, up 17%. Those are terrific numbers and reflect an unstoppable culture. We are well on our way to another great year of financial results.

所以這是歷史上又一個出色的季度。今年前 9 個月，我們的經紀和風險管理合併業務部門的收入成長了 16%；有機成長8%，淨利成長20%；調整後 EBITDAC，成長 18%；調整後每股收益成長 17%。這些都是了不起的數字，反映了一種不可阻擋的文化。我們即將迎來另一個財務表現輝煌的一年。

Hats off to the team for all of their hard work. So back to you, Pat.

向團隊的辛勤工作致敬。回到你身上，帕特。

Thanks, Doug. And operator, if we could go to questions and answers, please.

謝謝，道格。接線員，請讓我們進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Hey. Thanks for the questions. First one is on the bridge from -- in the brokerage segment from 3Q organic to 4Q organic to kind of the 2 point uplift sequentially. Are you saying most of that is life insurance? And if not, it sounds like RPC was still kind of more muted. But are you saying RPC is kind of -- is lifting off and is trending higher into 4Q? Just trying to understand some of the pieces there.

嘿。感謝您的提問。第一個是經紀業務從第三季有機到第四季有機到連續 2 點提升的橋樑。你是說大部分都是人壽保險嗎？如果不是的話，聽起來 RPC 仍然比較安靜。但你是說 RPC 正在興起並且在第四季度呈現更高趨勢嗎？只是想了解其中的一些內容。

All right. So I think when you -- renewal premium changes is what you're referring to as RPC, I'm assuming. We're not seeing underlying that our rates -- what we're seeing for rates are not different, all that much in the third quarter at all compared to what we saw in the first two quarters. And I think you're seeing that in a lot of the carrier releases right now, too.

好的。所以我認為，當你——續訂保費變化就是你所說的 RPC，我假設。我們沒有看到我們的利率的根本原因——我們看到的利率沒有什麼不同，與我們在前兩個季度看到的相比，第三季的利率沒有太大不同。我想您現在也在許多運營商發布的版本中看到了這一點。

So rates for the fourth quarter, we're assuming about the same as what we're seeing here in the third quarter, which is the same as in the first and the second. As for the increase next quarter, yes, we are getting about 1 point of additional organic growth from the life insurance sales.

因此，我們假設第四季的利率與第三季的利率大致相同，與第一季和第二季的利率相同。至於下個季度的成長，是的，我們從人壽保險銷售中獲得了約 1 個百分點的額外自然成長。

But when you bake all this in, we think that it's -- we're running around 7.5% in our business right now. That's the underlying growth when you take out the puts and takes quarter to quarter. We're nicely in that 7% to 8% range.

但當你綜合考慮所有這些因素時，我們認為，我們目前的業務營運率約為 7.5%。當你逐季取出看跌期權和看跌期權時，這就是潛在的成長。我們正好處於 7% 到 8% 的範圍內。

Okay. Got it. So no other seasonality or anything there, okay.

好的。知道了。所以沒有其他季節性或任何東西，好吧。

We are a little slow in the fourth quarter. It's not as big a quarter for reinsurance for us. And that has been an organic leader over the last couple of years. So yes, we do have a little bit of that impact because we're not so heavily weighted in the fourth quarter to reinsurance.

第四季我們有點慢。對我們來說，再保險的四分之一並不大。在過去的幾年裡，這一直是個有機的領導者。所以，是的，我們確實受到了一點影響，因為我們在第四季度對再保險的權重並不那麼大。

Okay. That makes sense. Switching gears a bit to, I guess, the margins or just if I look at fiduciary investment income, looks like it was much better than expected. But I think you're guiding down. What caused the spike and why is it likely to go back down?

好的。這是有道理的。我想，稍微轉向一下利潤率，或者只是看看信託投資收入，看起來比預期要好得多。但我認為你正在引導。是什麼導致了峰值以及為什麼它可能會回落？

Well, I think you have to look at our premium funding business there. So when you take a look at the table on page 6 of the earnings release, I don't think we've changed our estimates all that much for the -- excuse me, of the CFO commentary. I don't think we've changed our comments all that much for the fourth quarter.

嗯，我認為你必須看看我們在那裡的優質融資業務。因此，當你看一下收益報告第 6 頁的表格時，我認為我們並沒有因為財務長的評論而改變我們的估計。我認為我們對第四季的評論沒有太大改變。

Okay.

好的。

We also realize there can be sometimes where we have, obviously, fluctuations in our fiduciary cash balances, too, that can impact that number.

我們也意識到，有時我們的信託現金餘額顯然也會出現波動，這也會影響這個數字。

Okay. Got it. And I guess, Doug, as a follow-up to some of the comments you made earlier on renewal price change. So actually, from a number of the carriers we've seen so far, we have seen an uptick on the casualty side in terms of pricing.

好的。知道了。道格，我想，這是您之前就續訂價格變化發表的一些評論的後續行動。實際上，從我們迄今為止看到的許多承運人來看，我們已經看到傷亡方面的定價有所上升。

And I know in the past, too, you guys have had a view that what you're hearing from carriers is that they are under earning on some of the major casualty lines. So is that still kind of in your thought process as you think you gave us some tidbits on how '25 could play out that there could be some price hardening on the casualty side?

我也知道，你們過去也有這樣的觀點，即你們從承運人那裡聽到的消息是，他們在一些主要的傷亡險種上的收入不足。那麼，這是否仍然在您的思考過程中，因為您認為您向我們提供了一些有關“25”如何發揮作用的花絮，導致傷亡方面可能會出現一些價格上漲？

There's definitely some price concern on casualty across the board. And I don't know if that will filter discipline on their part to continue to take it up more than we're presently seeing. But as you heard us earlier, Umbrella is presently rising at about 10%. The only line in casualty seems to have a difficult time finding bottoms, do you know. The rest, however, are showing strength.

總體而言，傷亡肯定存在一些價格問題。我不知道這是否會過濾他們的紀律，繼續比我們目前看到的更多。但正如您之前所聽到的，Umbrella 目前的漲幅約為 10%。唯一的傷亡線似乎很難找到底部，你知道嗎。然而，其餘的人都表現出了實力。

I just got one number here. Our US business, our casualty lines are up a [full point] third quarter versus second quarter.

我這裡剛拿到一個號碼。我們的美國業務，我們的傷亡人數第三季比第二季增加了[滿分]。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Thanks. So I appreciate all the guidance on the brokerage organic. I was just curious about the components. I think in the beginning of this year, you guys had talked about maybe it was a third, a third, a third exposure new business pricing. I was just curious how you guys expect that might unfold in 2025.

謝謝。所以我很感謝所有關於經紀有機的指導。我只是對組件感到好奇。我想在今年年初，你們談論過可能是第三次、第三次、第三次曝光新業務定價。我只是好奇你們預計 2025 年會如何發展。

I think it's going to be half new business in excess of lost business. And I think that it's going to split the rest of it between exposure and rate.

我認為新業務的一半將超過失去的業務。我認為它將把剩下的部分分成曝光率和利率。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. Yes. Just curious, maybe it's a little bit tough to go through all the comments, but it seemed like maybe international retail decelerated a little bit more than the US this quarter. I guess I was just curious also on your views between international and US retail going into next year.

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。是的。只是好奇，也許瀏覽所有評論有點困難，但本季國際零售業的減速似乎比美國大一些。我想我只是對你對明年國際零售業和美國零售業之間的看法感到好奇。

Well, I think that you're going to see strong international growth. That's where our strongest component is right now. And that does not seem to be backing off. So if you look at our prepared remarks, we talked about the fact that we're -- the good part of our growth this quarter was international and see they can find that.

嗯，我認為你會看到強勁的國際成長。這就是我們目前最強大的組件。這似乎並沒有退縮。因此，如果你看看我們準備好的講話，我們談到了這樣一個事實：本季我們成長的主要部分是國際化的，看看他們能發現這一點。

Yes. Australia and New Zealand operations killed it this quarter. So they're up nicely. Canada is a little flattish, I mean if you want to do that. If you look at the UK, there's a mix issue there in the third quarter also that you see through. But by and large, I wouldn't say that there's caters anywhere that are causing us concern.

是的。澳洲和紐西蘭的業務在本季表現不佳。所以他們相處得很好。加拿大有點平坦，我的意思是如果你想這樣做的話。如果你看看英國，你會發現第三季也存在一個混合問題。但總的來說，我不會說任何地方都有引起我們擔憂的餐飲服務。

International was up 10% this quarter, and Doug's count is right led by New Zealand and Australia.

國際航線本季成長了 10%，Doug 的統計數據中紐西蘭和澳洲遙遙領先。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. Good evening. My first question, embedded within your fourth-quarter guidance, the 8% brokerage organic, is there any assumption for an impact on contingent commissions from the recent storms?

你好，謝謝。晚安.我的第一個問題是，在你們的第四季指引中，也就是 8% 的經紀業務有機率中，是否有任何假設會影響最近的風暴對或有佣金的影響？

We don't think we're going to be heavily -- impact, maybe a couple of million bucks from the storms, but that wouldn't move that, maybe it moves at 10 basis points.

我們認為我們不會受到嚴重的影響，也許風暴會帶來數百萬美元的損失，但這不會改變這一點，也許會改變 10 個基點。

Okay. And then within the guidance, right, I think you guys said six to eight brokerage for next year. Are you assuming -- what are you assuming for the benefits business, right? I understand there was some seasonality this year.

好的。然後在指導範圍內，對吧，我想你們說明年有六到八家經紀業務。您對福利業務有何假設，對嗎？我知道今年有一些季節性。

Are you just assuming it's kind of in line with the rest of the segment? I know you typically wait a little longer to give the by-segment guidance, but just because that's brought on some volatility this year, I wanted to get a sense of where you think that will head next year.

您只是假設它與該細分市場的其餘部分一致嗎？我知道您通常會等待更長的時間來提供細分市場的指導，但正是因為這帶來了今年的一些波動，我想了解一下您認為明年的發展方向。

Listen, if you want to pick the midpoint of that range, maybe benefits was around 5 and reinsurance is around 9 something like that when you're looking for a couple of points on either side of the midpoint.

聽著，如果您想選擇該範圍的中點，也許福利約為 5，再保險約為 9，當您在中點兩側尋找幾個點時，類似的情況。

For next year?

明年？

Yes, for next year.

是的，明年。

Okay. And then with the M&A, I know like deal flow right, it's probably been a little lighter through the first three quarters, right, than what we've seen in prior years. Do you guys think just given it's a presidential election year, has that caused, I guess, a slowdown in just the closing of transactions? And are you expecting more activity in the fourth quarter early next year? How do you guys see things on that front?

好的。然後，在併購方面，我知道前三個季度的交易流量可能比我們前幾年看到的要少一些，對吧。你們認為，鑑於今年是總統選舉年，我想這是否會導致交易結束速度放緩？您預計明年初第四季會有更多活動嗎？你們如何看待這方面的事？

Well, I think if you take -- this is Pat. If you look at the general marketplace in terms of acquisitions, there's been a bit of a slowdown in general across the board for the last year. We've got a great pipeline. In my experience, we've got one of the best pipelines we've ever had.

好吧，我想如果你認為——這是帕特。如果你從收購的角度來觀察整個市場，你會發現去年整體放緩。我們有一個很棒的管道。根據我的經驗，我們擁有有史以來最好的管道之一。

So I think that possibly when the discomfort, if you want to call it that or concentration on this election finally ends. Clearly, if the Democrats get in, I think there could be a rush for the door. I don't know what happens in the case of the Republicans win. But at any rate, I think when things settle out, we do think there'll be continued great opportunity. And I do think that there'll be a return to a little bit more robust market.

所以我認為，可能當這種不適（如果你想稱之為不適的話）或對這次選舉的關注最終結束時。顯然，如果民主黨加入，我認為可能會湧入。我不知道如果共和黨獲勝的話會發生什麼事。但無論如何，我認為當事情解決後，我們確實認為將繼續存在巨大的機會。我確實認為市場將會回歸更強勁的狀態。

Yes. I think we're going to be -- I think if you look at year-to-date in '20 and '21, we are closing around [17], in '22, we closed [19]. Year-to-date '24, we're at [27]. Yes, last year, we closed [37] year-to-date of these tuck-in deals acquisitions. So it was a little slower this quarter. But I think as you heard from Pat's pretty detailed comments, our pipeline is terrific right now.

是的。我認為我們將會 - 我認為如果你看看 20 年和 21 年迄今為止的情況，我們將在 [17] 左右關閉，在 22 年，我們將關閉 [19]。 24 年至今，我們處於 [27]。是的，去年，我們完成了 [37] 年初至今的這些附加交易收購。所以這個季度的速度有點慢。但我認為正如您從帕特非常詳細的評論中聽到的那樣，我們的管道現在非常棒。

And then one last one on like that corporate line within the corporate segment, Doug. I thought you said that it was worse, right, than September IR Day because of the FX remeasurement, but that reversed in the fourth quarter, but then the Q4 guide for corporate didn't change. Are you just not modeling that in yet?

最後一位是公司部門內的公司路線，道格。我以為你說由於外匯重新衡量，情況比 9 月份的投資者關係日更糟糕，但這種情況在第四季度發生了逆轉，但隨後第四季度的企業指南沒有改變。您還沒有建模嗎？

Yes. It's a good point. We might be a little bipolar on that. We might have been able to schedule a couple of extra pennies on that line for the reversal of what we saw at the end of the third quarter, but that bounces around quite a bit. So I think that see what happens again. So we just didn't feel like for a couple of pennies as we're changing that work.

是的。這是一個好點。我們對此可能有點兩極化。我們本來可以在這條線上安排幾分額外的錢，以扭轉我們在第三季末看到的情況，但這有很大的反彈。所以我認為再看看會發生什麼。因此，當我們改變這項工作時，我們只是不想花幾分錢。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Building on your last answer on acquisitions, one of the things that struck out -- or stuck out to me, I should say, as well as going through the supplement was the weighted average multiple for tuck-in pricing of acquisitions came down a lot in the third quarter.

基於你對收購的最後一個回答，我應該說，最突出的一件事——或者說對我來說是突出的，以及通過補充材料是收購定價的加權平均倍數下降了很多在第三季度。

Is there any -- maybe you can just help me understand what happened, why the multiple came down because I don't feel like multiples are coming down in the marketplace. And Pat, in your prepared remarks, you seem to emphasize your price discipline a little bit more than usually referenced in talking about tuck-in acquisitions?

有沒有——也許你可以幫助我了解發生了什麼，為什麼倍數會下降，因為我不覺得市場上的倍數會下降。帕特，在您準備好的演講中，您似乎比通常在談論收購時提到的價格紀律更強調您的價格紀律？

Yes. When we prepared the remarks, Greg, we did discuss rather in the past, we've been undisciplined. No, I think it's just a good reminder. We have a lot of people listening to these calls, our own people included. And this is a theme for us.

是的。格雷格，當我們準備發言時，我們過去確實進行了討論，我們一直沒有紀律。不，我認為這只是一個很好的提醒。我們有很多人在傾聽這些呼籲，包括我們自己的人。這是我們的主題。

But we want to do great deals at the right price. We've done that now for a good 30 years. And it's just a reminder to our own folks and to our listeners that we do a lot of acquisitions. We try to maintain a good discipline around the pricing, and we seem to strike a fair balance between that and the great people to join us.

但我們希望以合適的價格達成偉大的交易。我們已經這樣做了整整 30 年。這只是提醒我們自己的人和我們的聽眾，我們進行了大量的收購。我們努力在定價方面保持良好的紀律，並且我們似乎在定價和加入我們的優秀人才之間取得了公平的平衡。

And the multiple for the third-quarter acquisitions came down materially like I felt like I take a step back to time.

第三季收購的倍數大幅下降，就像我感覺自己倒退了一步。

One of those acquisitions was not priced, but I would say, it was priced a little under market because we have some opportunity to help it get better.

其中一項收購併未定價，但我想說，它的定價略低於市場水平，因為我們有機會幫助它變得更好。

Okay. Another sort of nitpicking item. You were going through your earnings press release and I was going through the adjustments to earnings to get your adjusted EBITDAC on page 5 of brokerage. And one of the things that stuck out to me is just a huge jump up in workforce and lease termination related charges in the year this year versus last year in the third quarter versus the third last year.

好的。另一種挑剔的項目。您正在查看收益新聞稿，而我正在查看收益調整，以便將調整後的 EBITDAC 放在經紀業務的第 5 頁。讓我印象深刻的一件事是，今年第三季與去年第三季相比，今年勞動力和租賃終止相關費用大幅上漲。

Is there something going on on a bigger sale? Is this more offshoring that's going on? Or maybe you could just help. I know it's a small item inside your income statement. Maybe you could just give us a sense of what's going on with this.

有什麼大促銷活動嗎？這是更多的離岸外包嗎？或者也許你可以幫忙。我知道這是您損益表中的一個小項目。也許你可以讓我們了解一下這是怎麼回事。

Greg, I'm sorry, go ahead.

格雷格，對不起，請繼續。

So I was just going to say, Greg, you hit on the offshoring thing is really continues to be a very strong play for us. And you'll recall, years ago, we started with a very small group. We're 12,500 people strong there now. And as we do acquisitions and go across the board, illustrating the type of quality and the speed with which we can do things like issue certificates, there's pretty quick adoption. It's pretty good.

所以我想說，格雷格，你談到的離岸外包對我們來說確實仍然是一個非常強大的遊戲。您會記得，幾年前，我們從一個非常小的團隊開始。我們現在有 12,500 人。當我們進行收購並全面開展時，說明我們可以做諸如頒發證書之類的事情的品質類型和速度，很快就得到了採用。非常好。

Yes. I think you're seeing a -- you're starting to see the flywheel just getting stronger and stronger as we benefit from scale. We benefit from technologies that we're deploying. We're benefiting from offshore centers of excellence. It just gives us an opportunity to continue to optimize our workforce. And so I think you're seeing that this quarter, we popped up a little bit because we had some opportunities to optimize our workforce. So you'll see that from time to time.

是的。我認為你會看到，隨著我們從規模中受益，你開始看到飛輪變得越來越強大。我們從我們正在部署的技術中受益。我們受惠於離岸卓越中心。它只是讓我們有機會繼續優化我們的員工隊伍。所以我想你會看到這個季度我們突然出現了一些，因為我們有一些機會來優化我們的勞動力。所以你會時不時地看到這一點。

Great. And then just step back macro question, and this will be the last one. I know your commercial customers set their budgets for the year. In the past, given the robust rate increases that you've had to sell, it seems like the market is beginning to stabilize a little bit more than, say, for it was two years ago.

偉大的。然後退一步討論宏觀問題，這將是最後一個。我知道您的商業客戶設定了今年的預算。過去，鑑於您必須出售的利率大幅上漲，市場似乎開始比兩年前穩定一些。

How are the budgets. When you hear from your customers, how are the budgets changing for their insurance spend? Is it you're seeing more flat budgets? Are you still seeing them assume increases. Give us a sense on there.

預算如何。當您收到客戶的來信時，他們的保險支出預算有何變化？您是否看到更多的固定預算？您是否仍然看到他們假設增加。讓我們對那裡有一個感覺。

Really not flat, Greg, for two reasons. Exposure is -- thankfully are continuing to grow. This is why we go through our daily review of the things that are coming through audits, et cetera. We're seeing a robust economy, and that's clearly in a big part of the middle market. And so from SME all the way through large accounts, we've got the data on that. People are expanding their exposure units. So budgets are going up.

格雷格，確實不平坦，有兩個原因。值得慶幸的是，曝光率正在持續成長。這就是為什麼我們每天都會審查審核等內容。我們看到了強勁的經濟，這顯然是在中間市場的很大一部分。因此，從中小企業一直到大型客戶，我們都獲得了相關數據。人們正在擴大他們的暴露單位。所以預算正在增加。

Secondly, we are very, very cautious. We are not leading customers to believe that there's any kind of nirvana relative to rates. That is not what's happening. We show them our detail that we go over with you quarterly, property is up 4%, and general liability is up 6%. You may not deserve that. That may not hit your P&L, but on the other hand, you may deserve [25%], and this is a rational market, we got to talk through that.

其次，我們非常非常謹慎。我們不會讓客戶相信價格有任何涅槃。事實並非如此。我們向他們展示我們每季與您一起檢查的詳細信息，財產上漲 4%，一般責任上漲 6%。你可能不值得。這可能不會影響你的損益，但另一方面，你可能值得[25%]，這是一個理性的市場，我們必須討論這一點。

Which leads us right into discussing how much you retain what you bring back into the coverage stack that you might not have had before. And that's where the real strength and art of being a broker is understanding that appetite for risk that each individual account has working with those primary buyers to decide how they're going to get their best spend. And it's not a discussion all around rate by any means.

這導致我們直接討論您保留了多少以前可能沒有的內容帶回覆蓋堆疊中。這就是作為經紀人的真正優勢和藝術所在，了解每個個人帳戶的風險偏好，與這些主要買家合作，決定他們如何獲得最佳支出。無論如何，這並不是一個圍繞利率的討論。

Yes. I think you take the (inaudible) out of the pricing cycle and have this rational pricing cycle that we're seeing right now, our guys will show the tools and capabilities that we have, and that will shine through and differentiate ourselves. That's why when I said before that I see a better new business versus lost business year next year than we've even seen in the last couple of years.

是的。我認為你將（聽不清楚）從定價週期中剔除，並擁有我們現在看到的合理定價週期，我們的人員將展示我們擁有的工具和功能，這將讓我們脫穎而出並脫穎而出。這就是為什麼當我之前說過時，我認為明年的新業務與損失業務相比會比過去幾年更好。

And by the way, to that point, Greg, we can take clients into our data now, and I think you know this. We can say clients like you buy this and their quotes to cover looks like this. And by the way, their costs are this.

順便說一句，格雷格，我們現在可以將客戶納入我們的數據中，我想您知道這一點。我們可以說像您這樣的客戶購買了這個產品，他們的報價如下所示。順便說一句，他們的成本是這樣的。

Well, why is that? Think about selling or buying a house on the street. One has been taken care of, looks pretty darn good, has street appeal. The other looks like junk. Guess who gets a better price. Why don't we try to get you looking more like the house on the street people want to buy?

嗯，這是為什麼呢？考慮出售或購買街上的房子。一件已經被保養好，看起來相當不錯，具有街頭吸引力。另一個看起來像垃圾。猜猜誰的價格比較優惠。我們為什麼不嘗試讓您看起來更像人們想要購買的街上的房子呢？

And that, back to my point of art is what it's all about to be a good broker. And that's why when we get a rate environment like this, I feel very confident talking to our salespeople about we better see some increased sales folks, let's go.

回到我的藝術觀點，那就是成為優秀經紀人的全部。這就是為什麼當我們獲得這樣的費率環境時，我非常有信心與我們的銷售人員交談，我們最好看到一些銷售人員的增加，我們走吧。

Dean Criscitiello, KBW.

迪恩·克里西蒂洛 (Dean Criscitiello)，KBW。

I was hoping if you guys could provide maybe some additional color on the sequential decrease in the organic growth in brokerage, especially in the context of that renewal premium change holding up pretty strong sequentially.

我希望你們能就經紀業務有機成長的連續下降提供一些額外的信息，特別是在續訂保費變化連續保持相當強勁的背景下。

Well, listen, I think I said earlier that our first quarter is strong because it's a heavy reinsurance quarter, right? We've talked about some of the life insurance being a little lumpy. But if you bounce those two things out of there a little bit, again, we're running around 7.5% organic growth each quarter. So while it looks like that on the face, yes, we're at [6%] now, but we warned that there was a full point of headwind against that.

好吧，聽著，我想我之前說過我們的第一季表現強勁，因為這是一個重度再保險的季度，對吧？我們已經討論過一些人壽保險有點不穩定。但如果你再把這兩件事稍微反彈一下，我們每季的有機成長約為 7.5%。因此，雖然表面上看起來是這樣，是的，我們現在處於 [6%]，但我們警告說，這一點存在很大的阻力。

Also, we're not seeing substantial rate differential, rates between the quarters. So really underlying it when you carve out the seasonality of a couple of our businesses, some of the mix differences between when property renews versus when casualty renews, the life lumpiness, you got to take our word for it. It's pretty steady underlying other than that, those things that I've set. So it's pretty steady right now underlying.

此外，我們沒有看到季度之間的巨大利率差異。因此，當你考慮到我們幾項業務的季節性、財產更新與傷亡更新之間的一些混合差異、生活的波動性時，你必須相信我們的話。除此之外，我設定的那些東西是相當穩定的。所以現在基本面相當穩定。

Yes. And if you want to go back three or four years, D&O was up 300%. So by line, by geography, these rates do make a difference. They move. So we're not seeing a D&O renewal anywhere near 300%. In fact, it's off 5 or 6. So the percentages do move. This is not an environment where you say, for the next 10 years. Good news is it's 4% a quarter being back boom.

是的。如果你想回到三、四年前，D&O 的股價上漲了 300%。因此，按線路、按地理位置，這些費率確實會產生影響。他們移動。因此，我們並沒有看到 D&O 更新率接近 300%。事實上，它已經下降了 5 或 6。 所以百分比確實發生了變化。這不是你說的未來10年的環境。好消息是，每季的成長率為 4%。

Got it. That makes sense. And then my second one, a few of your competitors have made some large acquisitions to help improve their middle market capabilities. And I was wondering what implications do you think that have on the competitive environment going forward, sort of being that you guys are adopting player in that space?

知道了。這是有道理的。然後是我的第二個問題，你們的一些競爭對手已經進行了一些大型收購，以幫助提高他們的中間市場能力。我想知道你們認為這對未來的競爭環境有什麼影響，例如你們在這個領域採用球員？

I don't think it has any impact to be perfectly blunt on our business at all.

我認為完全直言不諱對我們的業務根本沒有任何影響。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克休斯，Truist 證券公司。

Doug, did you give early margin thoughts for 2025 for brokerage and risk management?

Doug，您是否對 2025 年經紀和風險管理的早期保證金想法進行了思考？

I have not. I will in December as we go through the budget. But I will say this: we post 6% to 8% our organic growth next year. It's there, Mark. There's an opportunity for us to continue to get better. Our scale advantages are coming through our technologies, using the offshore centers of excellence it still gives us an opportunity in an environment that we're seeing with current wage inflation, with current inflation in other categories of our spend that we continue to have opportunities to get better and better. And when you're punching out 6% to 8% organic growth, the underlying margins will absolutely have opportunity for expansion.

我沒有。我會在 12 月審議預算。但我要說的是：明年我們的有機成長將達到 6% 到 8%。就在那裡，馬克。我們有機會繼續變得更好。我們的規變得越來越好。當你實現 6% 到 8% 的有機成長時，基本利潤絕對有機會擴大。

Very good. And then the -- could you give organic broken out by the wholesale components and then reinsurance, I think you might have given those collectively at up 8%, but do you happen to have the components of that?

非常好。然後--你能否給出按批發成分細分的有機成分，然後是再保險，我想你可能已經給出了總共8%的利率，但你碰巧有其中的成分嗎？

Yes. Listen, some of like our Affinity businesses might be at 12%. Some of our program businesses might be around that 6%. I think our open brokerage is somewhere around 9%, 8% or 9%. The reinsurance is somewhere around 8% or 9% this quarter. So I would say other than a couple maybe the affinity business just a little better this quarter and maybe the program business just a little below that 8%. But the reason why we love them together, and it was just a short in the script, but there's not a lot of difference when you're looking at around 8%.

是的。聽著，一些像我們的 Affinity 業務可能是 12%。我們的一些專案業務可能在 6% 左右。我認為我們的開放經紀業務大約在 9%、8% 或 9% 左右。本季的再保險約為 8% 或 9%。所以我想說，除了一對夫婦之外，本季親和力業務可能會好一點，而專案業務可能會略低於 8%。但我們之所以喜歡他們在一起，這只是劇本中的一個短片，但當你看 8% 左右時，並沒有太大區別。

Understood. And then any comment, Pat, on the mix shift out of admitted into the [P&F] lines?

明白了。然後，帕特，對於混音轉變是否被承認進入 [P&F] 行有什麼評論嗎？

Yes. I think it's very -- it's a really interesting one, Mark. I think we're seeing continued tremendous submission supply into our wholesaling operation RPS that has not slowed down, which is really interesting, and we are not seeing accounts flowing back to the primary market at any great extent. So the excess and surplus market, which we know has gobbled up a big chunk of the P&C market over the last 5, 10 years, seems to be continuing its growth and it's maintaining its accounts.

是的。我認為這非常——這真的很有趣，馬克。我認為我們看到我們的批發業務 RPS 持續有大量的提交供應，並且沒有放緩，這非常有趣，而且我們沒有看到帳戶在很大程度上回流到一級市場。因此，我們知道，在過去的 5 年、10 年裡，過剩和盈餘市場已經吞噬了財產險市場的很大一部分，但它似乎仍在繼續增長，並且正在維持其帳戶。

And I think that's -- we've got people in RPS that bring more than just pricing to the deal. There's a lot of expertise there. There's a lot of layering and structuring that goes into some of these deals that you're a local retailer, ourselves included, quite honestly, 50% of our wholesale business goes to RPS. That's for a reason. So I think it's both professional capabilities as well as market access, and that market is still growing nicely.

我認為，我們 RPS 的人員不僅為交易帶來定價。那裡有很多專業知識。作為本地零售商（包括我們自己），其中一些交易涉及許多分層和結構，老實說，我們 50% 的批發業務都涉及 RPS。這是有原因的。所以我認為這既是專業能力的問題，也是市場准入的問題，而這個市場仍然在良好地成長。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

So I mean, when I hear what you're saying about reinsurance and the strength and growth there, the wholesale business, it seems like it's growing very nicely as well. When I look at the 6% and I guess, run rating closer to 7% and change. But does that mean -- I guess it obviously means that the businesses other than reinsurance and wholesale like the more core retail is doing something lower, is there anything that's causing some of the price there to not flow through? Is that just maybe some of the property deceleration we saw?

所以我的意思是，當我聽到你所說的再保險以及批發業務的實力和成長時，它似乎也成長得非常好。當我看到 6% 時，我猜想，評級接近 7% 時就會改變。但這是否意味著——我想這顯然意味著除了再保險和批發之外的其他業務（例如更核心的零售業）正在做一些較低的事情，是否有什麼原因導致部分價格無法流通？這可能只是我們看到的房地產減速的一部分嗎？

I'm just trying to understand that piece of it specifically. What are some of the trends you're seeing in puts and takes headed into next year for the core retail piece of it?

我只是想具體地理解其中的一部分。您在明年的核心零售業務看跌期權和期權中看到了哪些趨勢？

Yes. I always keep in the back of your mind, our benefits business. That business is running around 5%, take out the large live cases and stuff that bounce around a little bit. So as that -- as you think about the -- those that are above that 7% range, yes, you've listened, but you also have to remember that the benefit businesses naturally runs down below that level.

是的。我始終牢記我們的福利業務。該業務的運作率為 5% 左右，除去大型現場案例和略有波動的東西。因此，當你想到那些高於 7% 範圍的人時，是的，你已經聽過了，但你也必須記住，企業的福利自然會低於該水平。

Some of our actuarial services businesses run a little bit lower than that. But as I look across the organic across all the operating, we mentioned that Canada was about flat. But by and large, there's a few that offset each other, but it's not like there's any one particular area that is systemically running below that level right now.

我們的一些精算服務業務的運作情況比這要低一些。但當我縱觀所有營運部門的有機情況時，我們提到加拿大的情況基本上持平。但總的來說，有一些相互抵消，但目前並沒有任何一個特定領域系統性地低於該水平。

Got it. And then maybe if we can go back to reinsurance. I mean, the growth rate you're anticipating sounds pretty robust despite the flight pricing. And I just want to see if you could add some color around that. I mean does that have to do with demand? Can you talk a bit about what you're seeing in terms of your clients' demand for reinsurance?

知道了。然後也許我們可以回到再保險領域。我的意思是，儘管有航班定價，但您預期的成長率聽起來相當強勁。我只是想看看你是否可以為此添加一些顏色。我的意思是這跟需求有關係嗎？您能談談您所看到的客戶對再保險的需求嗎？

Yes. I think demand seems very, very strong, which is good news for us. Also, I think our level of expertise in helping clients in a market environment where there is capacity and they can move around how they play in that capacity. It's a very strong demand for our consulting capabilities around reinsurance and what's the next move for the carriers that are our customers.

是的。我認為需求似乎非常非常強勁，這對我們來說是個好消息。此外，我認為我們正在幫助客戶在有能力的市場環境中的專業水平，並且他們可以改變他們以這種能力發揮的方式。這對我們在再保險方面的諮詢能力以及我們的客戶承運人的下一步提出了非常強烈的需求。

So you have both. You've got demand. I think you have more utilization. There's strong growth at the primary level, and all of that flows up into the funnel for reinsurance. And as one of the top three players in that business, we have a lot of good prospects on the list.

所以你兩者都有。你有需求。我認為你的利用率更高。初級層面的成長強勁，所有這些都流入了再保險的管道。作為該行業的三大參與者之一，我們在名單上有很多良好的前景。

Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.

凱蒂·薩克斯，自主研究。

Thank you for the question and I apologize, (inaudible) just a fire (inaudible) right now. I want to take back to the subject of valuations. So you're thinking about acquisitions in the middle market that are really concentrated in excess of $15 million of revenue.

謝謝你的提問，我很抱歉，（聽不清楚）現在只是一場火災（聽不清楚）。我想回到估值這個主題。因此，您正在考慮在中間市場進行收購，這些市場的收入實際上集中在超過 1500 萬美元。

We've seen a couple of those lately. And the multiples on those deals have been a lot higher than we've seen in the past. I was curious how that compares to what you guys are seeing for those larger middle-market deals and whether your appetite to participate in larger acquisitions has shifted at all?

我們最近看到了其中一些。這些交易的本益比比我們過去看到的要高得多。我很好奇，這與你們所看到的大型中間市場交易相比如何，以及你們參與大型收購的興趣是否改變了？

Listen, I think that there's no question, the large ER probably the higher the multiple might be for somebody that's out there looking for an opportunity. But when we look at our tuck-in acquisitions, I think that people understand that we'll pay a fair price and the advantage is they get a stick with us. They get -- come in and they get a work inside of a broker. It's a broker selling to a broker.

聽著，我認為毫無疑問，對於那些正在尋找機會的人來說，ER 越大，倍數可能就越高。但當我們審視我們的收購時，我認為人們明白我們會支付合理的價格，而好處是他們會支持我們。他們進來了，他們在經紀人內部找到了一份工作。這是經紀人向經紀人出售產品。

They understand that if they decide to take our stock that they get to participate in equal form as you do, as I do, as Pat does, everybody else in this room. It's one stock for every person. They get our resources they get to put their employees and their clients into an environment where actually joining us is going to deliver considerably more career value and more insurance value to their customers.

他們明白，如果他們決定買我們的股票，他們就可以像你、我、派特以及這個房間裡的其他人一樣以平等的方式參與。每個人都擁有一支股票。他們獲得了我們的資源，將他們的員工和客戶置於一個真正加入我們的環境中，將為他們的客戶帶來更多的職業價值和更多的保險價值。

Many times, they look at it and they say that they get the opportunity to continue on doing what they're going to do. So they get excited about it 10, 11 or 12 multiple. That's the reality about it is they're making a great return for their family, and they know they got to continue doing it with us for long as they would like to do in their career and that's valuable to them, too. Don't forget that.

很多時候，他們看著它，然後說他們有機會繼續做他們要做的事情。所以他們對此感到興奮 10 倍、11 倍或 12 倍。這就是現實，他們正在為家人帶來巨大的回報，他們知道他們必須繼續與我們一起做他們想做的職業生涯，這對他們來說也很有價值。別忘了這一點。

Let's also take a look at the landscape. And we don't talk about this, I think, enough because the big deals get big headlines, and they are big platforms. We estimate there's 29,000 agents and brokers in America. Last year, Business Insurance last July, Business Insurance ranked the top 100 in the United States, number 100 to $30 million in revenue.

我們也來看看風景吧。我認為，我們對這一點的討論還不夠，因為大交易會成為頭條新聞，而且它們是大平台。我們估計美國有 29,000 名代理人和經紀人。去年商業保險 去年7月，商業保險在美國排名前100名，收入第100至3000萬美元。

So there's 28,900 brokers in America, that's firms, not people, that are out there trading. And that's why we say 90% of the time, which continues to be consistent over the last decade, when we compete in the marketplace, we're competing with somebody smaller.

美國有 28,900 名經紀人，他們是公司，而不是個人，在外面進行交易。這就是為什麼我們說，當我們在市場上競爭時，90％的時間（這在過去十年中一直保持一致）是我們在與規模較小的公司競爭。

And it's probably less than 10% of the time really that we're competing with Marsh and Aon. We are the only larger brokers in the world today. It's not that we don't compete, we do. There's a robust market at the top end.

我們真正與達信和怡安競爭的情況可能不到 10%。我們是當今世界上唯一較大的經紀商。這並不是說我們不競爭，而是我們確實在競爭。高端市場有一個強勁的市場。

When you think about that, we can use our funds, as Doug says, at lower multiples. We can have 100 of these opportunities in our pipeline. We can be pricing out 70 of them and possibly put on $1 billion of revenue with people that want to join us, haven't joined somebody else want to bring their culture and their people aboard a culture that fits and matches theirs. As Doug said, a broker run by brokers. It doesn't get the press, but it seems like a pretty good strategy and a good use of our cash to us.

當你想到這一點時，正如道格所說，我們可以以較低的倍數使用我們的資金。我們的管道中可以擁有 100 個這樣的機會。我們可以定價排除其中的 70 家，並可能為想要加入我們的人、尚未加入的人以及希望將他們的文化和他們的員工帶入適合他們的文化的人提供 10 億美元的收入。正如道格所說，經紀人經營經紀人。它沒有引起媒體的注意，但對我們來說，這似乎是一個非常好的策略，並且很好地利用了我們的現金。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Just had a question in brokerage and the contingents were up 24% on an organic basis. I was wondering if you could just talk about what was driving that in the quarter?

剛剛有一個關於經紀業務的問題，隊伍有機成長了 24%。我想知道您能否談談本季的推動因素是什麼？

Yes. Listen, I think that when you're talking about that, it's another $7 million or $8 million of where it developed from. We just had -- between our benefits business and our US retail business, that's where we picked up a few extra contingents in the quarter or our estimation for those contingents in the quarter. So there was nothing special in there.

是的。聽著，我認為當你談論這個時，它是另外 700 萬或 800 萬美元的開發資金。我們剛剛在我們的福利業務和我們的美國零售業務之間獲得了本季度的一些額外的或我們對本季度這些或有人員的估計。所以裡面並沒有什麼特別的。

And again, we might give a couple of million of that back next quarter because of the storms and floods. But by and large, it I would say around the possibility of what could happen, it was a few million dollars in both of those businesses.

同樣，由於暴風雨和洪水，我們可能會在下個季度回饋數百萬美元。但總的來說，我想說的是，圍繞著可能發生的事情的可能性，這兩項業務都花費了幾百萬美元。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess just a bigger picture question. I heard the commentary on the term sheets being prepared or that in the process of getting signed with $700 million of revenues. Do you have any stats historically on just how many of those close? Like what percentage of those closed in the next year? Just to help us level set how much the contribution could be going forward?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後我想這只是一個更大的問題。我聽到了對正在準備的投資意向書或正在簽署的 7 億美元收入的投資意向書的評論。您有歷史統計數據來說明其中有多少是接近的嗎？例如明年關閉的百分比是多少？只是為了幫助我們設定未來可以貢獻多少？

Really don't, here is the thing. Every one of these is a very interesting story into itself. You've heard me say, I mean, I think the longest time we spent talking to a prospect and getting to know each other was 20 years. So sometimes they happen in a quarter, sometimes they take a couple of years. But when we get to pricing and we get to putting together a letter of intent, we're getting serious. And that's a deal that's going to get decided in the next six months.

實在不行，事情是這樣的。其中每一個本身都是一個非常有趣的故事。你聽我說過，我的意思是，我認為我們與潛在客戶交談並相互了解的最長時間是 20 年。因此，有時它們會在一個季度內發生，有時則需要幾年時間。但當我們開始定價並準備一份意向書時，我們就會變得認真起來。該交易將在未來六個月內決定。

So I don't really have a stat on how many of those do close, how many don't. It's a full-on sales process. It's just like selling insurance, frankly. If you don't have a lot in the hopper, you're not going to close a lot. Technically, we feel very good about these 60. We get asked me this every quarter, and I will try to give some color. Right now, we feel very good about the deals that we're proposing right now. I would think we'd have a good shot at an awful lot of those.

所以我並沒有真正統計其中有多少已經關閉，有多少沒有。這是一個完整的銷售流程。坦白說，這就像銷售保險一樣。如果料斗裡沒有太多東西，你就不會關閉很多東西。從技術上講，我們對這 60 個感覺非常好。現在，我們對我們現在提出的交易感覺非常好。我認為我們有很好的機會實現其中的許多目標。

Okay. That's good to hear. And then just finally, so it sounded like the US retail P&C organic, it sounded like that slowed a little bit. I think it was 5%, if I heard that right, and I think it was 6% last quarter. Was that just the large account property business that you were talking about that has reaccelerated here in the fourth quarter?

好的。很高興聽到這個消息。最後，聽起來像是美國零售財產和意外險的有機成長，聽起來有點放緩。如果我沒聽錯的話，我認為是 5%，上個季度是 6%。這就是您所說的大客戶房地產業務在第四季度重新加速的情況嗎？

Listen, I'm just looking at my sheet here. If it moved, it moved to [0.5 point] one way or another. We did have more first quarter just a little bit better than that, but second quarter is about the same number as what we've got right now.

聽著，我只是在看我的表格。如果它移動了，它就會以某種方式移動到 [0.5 點]。我們第一季的數據確實比這要好一點，但第二季的數據與我們現在的數據大致相同。

Grace Carter, Bank of America.

格蕾絲·卡特，美國銀行。

I was hoping we could talk about the contingents a little bit more, just given kind of the ongoing conversation around the casualty market, I was wondering if -- how you all are thinking about any potential risk of maybe some of the pressures from the casualty line that we saw in contingents last quarter resurfacing over the next few months.

我希望我們能多談談特遣隊，考慮到圍繞傷亡市場正在進行的對話，我想知道你們是否——如何考慮來自傷亡人員的一些壓力的任何潛在風險我們在上個季度看到的路線在接下來的幾個月重新出現。

If it did, we're talking a few million bucks. I mean I wouldn't call that as being a systemic issue that we're going to have to face. Just like with the storms, it's a few million. There are some corridors that -- we do have caps on our contingents. And so sometimes, if there's -- if the carriers have, let's say, maybe more losses than they had hoped.

如果確實如此，我們談論的是幾百萬美元。我的意思是，我不會稱之為我們必須面對的系統性問題。就像暴風雨一樣，有幾百萬。有些走廊——我們的特遣隊確實有上限。所以有時候，如果有的話——如果承運人的損失，比如說，可能比他們希望的還要多。

It may still let us get to our full contingent level because there's caps on that. So right now, we're not seeing a lot of pressure from that in not only in our past book, but as we look forward in the booking. And if carriers continue to strengthen their casualty rates the way they have been and what they -- what we're hearing from them, we're reading about what they're saying, it should maintain our contingent level also.

它可能仍然讓我們達到我們的全部應急水平，因為這是有上限的。所以現在，我們不僅在過去的書中，而且在我們未來的預訂中都沒有看到很大的壓力。如果航空母艦繼續像以前那樣提高傷亡率，我們從他們那裡聽到的，我們正在讀到他們所說的話，我們的特遣隊水平也應該保持不變。

And just a quick follow-up on the lumpy life sales. If I'm understanding correctly, you are expecting pretty much all of the timing issue to work itself out in 4Q? Or should we expect any sort of lagging impact from that in early 2025 as well?

這只是對不穩定的壽險銷售的快速跟進。如果我理解正確的話，您預計幾乎所有的時間問題都會在第四季度解決？或者我們應該預期到 2025 年初也會產生任何滯後影響？

What I said is already here in October, we have recouped half of what had been -- the timing that had come out of the first and second quarter -- excuse me, second and third quarter. So we're going to pick up -- so [far have], we think that we've got a pipeline, maybe to recover at all between now and the end of the year, and then we'll start over again.

我所說的已經在十月了，我們已經收回了一半的資金——第一和第二季的時間安排——對不起，第二和第三季。因此，我們將開始——到目前為止，我們認為我們已經有了一條管道，也許從現在到今年年底可以完全恢復，然後我們將重新開始。

Just like every other sales organization, we got to start over next year and go out there and see if we can gin up some opportunities. But this product is becoming more and more necessary for many not-for-profits in order for them to be competitive in their executive benefit package. So this is a product that we think has long legs over the next many -- several or many years.

就像其他所有銷售組織一樣，我們必須從明年開始，走出去看看是否能找到一些機會。但對於許多非營利組織來說，為了使他們在高階主管福利計畫中具有競爭力，該產品變得越來越必要。因此，我們認為這是一款在未來幾年或幾年內具有長期發展前景的產品。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Great. Just a quick follow-up on life insurance. So just ballpark, what percentage of your brokerage revenues are life insurance. And I don't know if you want to break it out into this new product that might be more lumpy or just growing faster over time than traditional life.

偉大的。只是關於人壽保險的快速跟進。所以，粗略算一下，人壽保險佔經紀收入的比例是多少。我不知道你是否想把它分解成這種新產品，它可能會比傳統生命更笨重，或者只是隨著時間的推移而增長得更快。

The lumpy business that we're talking about is about $125 million business.

我們談論的不穩定業務大約是 1.25 億美元的業務。

Okay. That helps explain why it can move organic that much.

好的。這有助於解釋為什麼它可以有機地移動那麼多。

I think that's it, operator. Thank you again, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. We had an excellent third quarter, and we're well on our way to delivering another excellent year of financial performance. I'd like to thank our 55,000 colleagues around the globe for their hard work and dedication to our clients. We look forward to speaking with you again in person at our December investor meeting in New York City. Thank you very much for being with us this evening. We'll talk to you then.

我想就是這樣，接線生。再次感謝大家今天下午加入我們。我們的第三季表現非常出色，我們即將迎來另一個出色的財務業績年度。我要感謝全球 55,000 名同事的辛勤工作和對客戶的奉獻。我們期待在 12 月於紐約市舉行的投資者會議上再次與您面對面交談。非常感謝您今晚與我們在一起。到時候我們再和你談談。

This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。