Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

下午好，歡迎參加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call.

本次電話會議期間發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義內的前瞻性陳述。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的資訊或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and risk factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。請參閱公司最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的有關前瞻性陳述和風險因素部分的信息，以了解有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息。

In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

此外，有關本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則措施的調節以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益發布和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 董事長兼執行長 J. Patrick Gallagher。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2014 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO, other members of the management team and the heads of our operating business divisions.

非常感謝。下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2014 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的財務長 Doug Howell、管理團隊的其他成員以及我們營運業務部門的負責人。

We had an excellent second quarter for our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments. We posted 14% growth in revenue, 7.7% organic growth and 8.1%, if you include interest income. We also completed 12 new mergers totaling $72 million of estimated annualized revenue. Reported net earnings margin expansion of 35 basis points, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 102 basis points to 31.4%. GAAP earnings per share of $1.70, up 15% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.68, up 19% year over year, another great quarter by the team and right in line with the expectations we provided at our June IR Day.

我們的經紀和風險管理合併業務第二季表現出色。我們公佈的收入成長了 14%，有機成長 7.7%，如果算上利息收入，則成長 8.1%。我們也完成了 12 項新合併，預計年總收入達 7,200 萬美元。報告淨利潤率擴大 35 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 102 個基點至 31.4%。 GAAP 每股收益為 1.70 美元，年增 15%，調整後每股收益為 2.68 美元，年增 19%，這是該團隊又一個出色的季度，與我們在 6 月 IR Day 上提供的預期一致。

Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 14%. Organic growth was 7.7% at the midpoint of guidance and above 8% if you include interest income. Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion was 98 basis points at the upper end of our June IR Day expectations.

從經紀業務開始，轉向以細分市場為基礎的業績。報告營收成長 14%。有機成長率為 7.7%，處於指導中位數，如果算上利息收入，則高於 8%。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大為 6 月投資者日預期上限 98 個基點。

Let me give you some insights behind our Brokerage segment organic and just to level set the following figures do not include interest income. Within our PC retail operations, we delivered 6% in the US and Canada, 7% in the UK, Australia and New Zealand. Our Global Employee Benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of about 3%, that would have been 5% without the timing impact from some lumpy life case sales.

讓我給您一些關於我們經紀業務有機背後的見解，只是為了說明以下數字不包括利息收入。在我們的 PC 零售業務中，我們在美國和加拿大交付了 6%，在英國、澳洲和紐西蘭交付了 7%。我們的全球員工福利經紀和諮詢業務的有機成長率約為 3%，如果沒有一些不穩定的生命案例銷售的時間影響，這一數字將達到 5%。

Shifting to our reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses, overall organic of 12%. This includes Gallagher Re at 13%, UK specialty at 10% and US wholesale at 11%. Excellent growth, whether retail, wholesale or reinsurance.

轉向我們的再保險、批發和專業業務，整體有機成長率為 12%。其中包括 Gallagher Re 的 13%、英國專業的 10% 和美國的批發 11%。無論是零售、批發或再保險，都實現了出色的成長。

Next, let me provide some thoughts on the PC insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance marketplace. Global second quarter renewal premiums, which include both rate and exposure changes, were up about 5%. So no change from what we discussed four weeks ago at our June investor meeting.

接下來，讓我從主要保險市場開始，提供一些關於 PC 保險定價環境的想法。第二季全球續保保費（包括費率和風險敞口變化）上漲約 5%。因此，我們四個星期前在六月投資者會議上討論的內容沒有改變。

Renewal premium increases continued to be broad based up across all of our major geographies and most product lines. For example, property was up 2% to 4%, general liability up 5% to 7%, umbrella and commercial auto up 8% to 10%, workers' comp up 1% to 3%, D&O down about 5%, cyber was flat and personal lines up over 10%. So many lines are still seeing strong increases.

我們所有主要地區和大多數產品線的續保費繼續廣泛增長。例如，財產上漲 2% 至 4%，一般責任上漲 5% 至 7%，雨傘和商用汽車上漲 8% 至 10%，工人補償上漲 1% 至 3%，D&O 下降約 5%，網路上漲持平和個人線路上漲超過10%。許多線路仍在強勁成長。

Moving to the reinsurance market and midyear renewals. Property reinsurance renewals saw modest price declines concentrated at the top end of reinsurance towers due to the increased capacity from both the traditional reinsurers and the ILS market.

轉向再保險市場和年中續保。由於傳統再保險公司和 ILS 市場容量的增加，財產再保險續保價格小幅下跌，集中在再保險塔的頂端。

Offsetting this was underlying exposure growth combined with increased demand resulting in flat year-over-year premium for reinsurers overall. US casualty renewals, soft terms and conditions tighten and some modest priced increases. Reinsurers continue to heavily scrutinize submissions given the industry's unfavorable prior year reserve development and reinsurers view of the current loss cost trends.

潛在風險成長和需求增加抵消了這一影響，導致再保險公司整體保費同比持平。美國傷亡續保、軟條款和條件收緊以及價格小幅上漲。鑑於該行業上一年的準備金發展不利以及再保險公司對當前損失成本趨勢的看法，再保險公司繼續嚴格審查提交的資料。

In our view, insurance and reinsurance carriers continue to behave rationally. Raising rates the most where it is needed to generate an adequate underwriting profit by line by industry and by geography. We continue to see this differentiation in our data between property and casualty lines. Carriers believe property may be close to approaching price and exposure adequacy. And thus, we are seeing property renewal premium increases moderating, but mostly within large accounts.

我們認為，保險和再保險公司的行為繼續保持理性。在需要按行業和地理劃分的行業產生足夠的承保利潤的情況下，最大限度地提高費率。我們繼續看到財產險和傷亡險之間的數據存在這種差異。業者認為，財產可能已接近價格和風險充足程度。因此，我們看到財產續約保費增長放緩，但主要是在大帳戶中。

Underlying that accounts with premium is around $1 million or greater are seeing renewal premium is flattish year over year. Yet on the other hand, in the small and mid-sized client space, where we are an industry leader, we are seeing increases of 7% for the second quarter.

保費約為 100 萬美元或以上的帳戶的續約保費與去年同期持平。但另一方面，在我們處於行業領先地位的中小型客戶領域，我們看到第二季度成長了 7%。

Shifting to casualty classes, we are seeing the greatest renewable premium increases and signs of these increases advancing. In fact, global second quarter umbrella and commercial auto renewal premium increases are in the high single digits and there is little differentiation by client size. We have been highlighting worsening social inflation, medical expenses and growing historical reserve concerns for quite some time. And thus, we continue to believe further rate increases are to come in casualty.

轉向傷亡類別，我們看到再生能源保費增幅最大，而且這種成長的跡象還在繼續。事實上，第二季全球保護傘和商業汽車續保費增幅均為高個位數，而且按客戶規模劃分的差異不大。一段時間以來，我們一直在強調不斷惡化的社會通膨、醫療費用和日益增長的歷史儲備擔憂。因此，我們仍然認為進一步升息將會造成損失。

While renewal premium increases are rational carrier response in the current environment, our clients have experienced multiple years of increased costs having a trusted advisor like Gallagher can help businesses navigate a complex insurance market by finding the best coverage for our clients while mitigating price increases, and that's our job as brokers.

雖然在當前環境下，續保保費上漲是承運人的合理反應，但我們的客戶已經經歷了多年的成本增加，擁有像加拉格爾這樣值得信賴的顧問可以幫助企業在複雜的保險市場中找到適合客戶的最佳承保範圍，同時緩解價格上漲，並這是我們作為經紀人的工作。

Moving to comments on our customers' business activity. During the second quarter, our daily indications continue to show positive midyear policy endorsements, audits and cancellations, similar with last year's levels across most geographies. So activity remains solid and we are not seeing signs of global economic slowdown.

接下來談談對客戶業務活動的評論。在第二季度，我們的日常指標繼續顯示積極的年中政策認可、審計和取消，與大多數地區去年的水平相似。因此，經濟活動依然穩健，我們沒有看到全球經濟放緩的跡象。

Within the US, the labor market balance remains intact with more open jobs than unemployed people looking for work and with continued wage growth and further medical cost inflation, employers remain focused on attracting and retaining talent while controlling costs. So I see solid demand for our services and advice in '24 and in 2025.

在美國，勞動市場平衡保持不變，空缺職位多於尋找工作的失業人員，而且隨著工資持續增長和醫療成本進一步上漲，雇主仍然專注於吸引和留住人才，同時控製成本。因此，我認為 24 年和 2025 年對我們的服務和建議的需求強勁。

Across the brokerage operations, I believe we continue to win market share due to our superior client value proposition, niche expertise, outstanding service and our extensive data and analytics offerings. Frankly, the smaller local brokers that we are competing against, about 90% of the time just can't match the value we provide, and that is leading to more net brokerage wins for Gallagher. So when we pull all this together, we continue to see full year '24 brokerage organic in the 7% to 9% range and that would be another outstanding year.

在整個經紀業務中，我相信，由於我們卓越的客戶價值主張、利基專業知識、出色的服務以及廣泛的數據和分析產品，我們將繼續贏得市場份額。坦白說，我們與之競爭的小型本地經紀商，大約 90% 的時間都無法與我們提供的價值相匹配，這導致加拉格爾獲得更多的淨經紀業務勝利。因此，當我們將所有這些綜合起來時，我們將繼續看到 24 年全年的經紀業務有機率在 7% 至 9% 的範圍內，這將是另一個出色的一年。

Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Revenue growth was 13%, including organic of 7.7%, adjusted EBITDA margins were 20.6%, up 120 basis points versus last year and in line with our June IR Day expectations. We continue to benefit from new business wins outstanding retention increases in customer business activity and higher new arising claims. Looking forward, we see organic in the next two quarters around 7% and margins around 20.5% that would bring full year '24 organic to 9% and margins to approximately 20.5%, and that too would be an outstanding year.

接下來是我們的風險管理部分，Gallagher Bassett。營收成長 13%，其中有機成長 7.7%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.6%，比去年成長 120 個基點，符合我們 6 月投資者關係日的預期。我們繼續受益於新業務的贏得、客戶業務活動中顯著的保留增加和更高的新索賠。展望未來，我們預計未來兩季的有機率約為7%，利潤率約為20.5%，這將使24 年全年的有機率達到9%，利潤率達到約20.5%，這也將是出色的一年。

Let me shift to mergers and acquisitions. We completed 12 new mergers during this second quarter, representing about $72 million of estimated annualized revenue. I'd like to thank all of our new partners for joining us and extend a very warm welcome to our growing Gallagher family of professionals.

讓我談談併購。我們在第二季完成了 12 項新合併，預計將年化收入約為 7,200 萬美元。我要感謝所有新合作夥伴的加入，並對我們不斷成長的加拉格爾專業人士大家庭表示熱烈歡迎。

Looking ahead, our pipeline remains very strong. We have around 60 term sheets being signed or prepared representing around $550 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and we will be very excited if they choose to join Gallagher.

展望未來，我們的管道仍然非常強大。我們正在簽署或準備約 60 份投資意向書，相當於年化收入約 5.5 億美元。好的公司總是有選擇的，如果他們選擇加入Gallagher，我們會非常興奮。

Let me conclude with some comments regarding our bedrock culture. Last month, we reflected the 40th anniversary of becoming a public company. Michael Bob Gallagher, Chairman and CEO at that time, knew above all, we must maintain our unique culture of teamwork, integrity and client service. Those values are captured in the 25 tenets of the Gallagher Way.

最後，我想對我們的基石文化發表一些評論。上個月，我們慶祝了成為上市公司 40 週年。時任董事長兼執行長 Michael Bob Gallagher 深知，最重要的是，我們必須保持我們獨特的團隊合作、誠信和客戶服務文化。這些價值體現在加拉格爾之路的 25 個原則中。

Thanks to all of our global colleagues that live and breathe the Gallagher Way day-in and day-out, our culture is stronger and more vibrant than ever, and it's our culture that continues to differentiate us as a firm and helped to drive an average annual total shareholder return of more than 16% over the past 40 years, that is the Gallagher Way.

感謝我們所有日復一日以加拉格爾之道生活和呼吸的全球同事，我們的文化比以往任何時候都更加強大和充滿活力，正是我們的文化繼續使我們作為一家公司脫穎而出，並幫助推動平均過去40年每年股東總回報率超過16%，這就是加拉格爾之路。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

好的。我現在停下來，把它交給道格。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today I'll start with our earnings release. I'll comment on second quarter organic growth and margins by segment. Punchline is we came in right in line with our June IR Day commentary, also update you on how we are seeing organic growth and margin shape up for the second half of the year. Then I'll shift to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our IR website, and I'll walk through the typical modeling helpers that we provide. And I'll conclude my prepared remarks with a few comments on cash, M&A and capital management.

謝謝帕特，大家好。今天我將從我們的收益發布開始。我將按部門評論第二季度的有機增長和利潤率。有趣的是，我們的表現與 6 月投資者關係日的評論一致，同時也向您介紹了我們如何看待下半年的自然成長和利潤率的變化。然後我將轉向我們在 IR 網站上發布的 CFO 評論文檔，並且我將介紹我們提供的典型建模助手。我將用一些關於現金、併購和資本管理的評論來結束我準備好的演講。

Okay. Let's flip to page 3, of the earnings release. Headline brokerage segment, second quarter organic growth of 7.7%, again, that's right in line with our June IR Day, where we forecasted a range of 7.5% to 8%. Notably, we would have been above 8% if a few large life sales had not shifted from second quarter to later in the year. We signaled this possible timing at our June IR Day. So again, no new news here. Recall that we also foreshadowed in late June, a small headwind from contingents that adversely impacted all in organic by about 25 basis points.

好的。讓我們翻到財報發布的第三頁。整體經紀業務第二季有機成長 7.7%，這與我們 6 月投資者關係日的預測一致，我們預測的成長範圍為 7.5% 至 8%。值得注意的是，如果一些大型壽險銷售沒有從第二季轉移到今年晚些時候，我們的成長率將超過 8%。我們在六月投資者關係日上暗示了這可能的時機。再說一次，這裡沒有新消息。回想一下，我們也在 6 月下旬預見到，來自意外事件的小阻力將對有機整體產生約 25 個基點的不利影響。

And finally, just a reminder that we don't include interest income in our organic and we did that would have pushed organic higher by about 40 basis points. We believe the investments that we have made in people sales tools, niche experts and data and analytics are leading to strong new business production and favorable client retention across the globe.

最後，提醒一下，我們沒有將利息收入納入我們的有機收入中，如果我們這樣做的話，有機收入將提高約 40 個基點。我們相信，我們在人員銷售工具、利基專家以及數據和分析方面的投資正在帶來強勁的新業務生產和全球範圍內良好的客戶保留。

Additionally, the insurance market backdrop remains supportive of growth. Pat said renewal premium change is 5% in the quarter. However, our July's renewal premium change thus far is above second quarter and with an active hurricane season predicted and noise around US casualty reserves growing louder again this quarter, is not unreasonable to expect mid-single digit or greater renewal premium changes in the second half of '24. So our organic investments combined with the insurance market conditions continued to support our 2024 full year Brokerage segment organic outlook, we are still seeing it in that 7% to 9% range.

此外，保險市場背景仍然支持成長。 Pat 表示，本季續保保費變動為 5%。然而，迄今為止，我們7 月份的續保保費變化高於第二季度，並且預計颶風季節活躍，並且本季度美國傷亡儲備金的噪音再次增大，因此預計下半年續保保費變化為中個位數或更大的變化並非沒有道理'24.因此，我們的有機投資與保險市場狀況相結合，繼續支持我們 2024 年全年經紀業務的有機前景，我們仍認為其增長在 7% 至 9% 的範圍內。

So now flip the page 5 of the earnings release to the brokerage segment adjusted EBITDA table. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.1%, up 98 basis points over last year and at the upper end of our June IR Day expectations.

現在，將收益發布的第 5 頁翻到經紀業務部門調整後 EBITDA 表。第二季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 33.1%，比去年增長 98 個基點，處於我們 6 月投資者關係日預期的上限。

Let me walk you through a bridge from last year. First, if you pull out last year, 2023, second quarter, you'd see we reported back that adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.1%. Second, we need to adjust for current period FX rates, which had a very limited impact on margin this quarter. So 2023 adjusted OpEx margin was also 32.1%.

讓我帶你走過去年的一座橋。首先，如果你把去年、2023 年第二季的數據拿出來，你會看到我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 32.1%。其次，我們需要調整目前匯率，這對本季利潤率的影響非常有限。因此，2023 年調整後的營運支出利潤率也是 32.1%。

Third, organic and interest gave us nearly 110 basis points of margin expansion this quarter. And then the impact of M&A and divestitures used about 10 basis points of margin. That gets you to second quarter 2024 margins of 33.1%, and therefore, that nearly 100 basis points of brokerage margin expansion, that's really great work by the team.

第三，有機利率和利息使我們本季的利潤率成長了近 110 個基點。然後，併購和資產剝離的影響使用了大約 10 個基點的保證金。這使得 2024 年第二季的利潤率達到 33.1%，因此，經紀業務利潤率擴大了近 100 個基點，這確實是團隊的出色工作。

As we look ahead to the second half of '24, we are still expecting margin expansion in the 90 basis points to 100 basis points range. So third and fourth quarter will look a lot like second quarter. Recall, first quarter '24 still have the roll-in impact of the acquisition. So the math for full year '24 will show about 60 basis points of full year expansion. But that would be about 80 basis points full year without bug, which feels about right, assuming we post organic in the 7% to 9% range.

展望 24 年下半年，我們仍預期利潤率將擴大在 90 個基點至 100 個基點範圍內。因此，第三季和第四季看起來很像第二季。回想一下，24 年第一季仍然有收購帶來的滾動影響。因此，24 年全年的數學計算將顯示全年擴張約 60 個基點。但如果沒有 bug，全年的成長率約為 80 個基點，假設我們發布有機成長率在 7% 到 9% 的範圍內，這感覺是正確的。

Let's move now to the Risk Management segment and the organic and EBITDA tables on pages 5 and 6 of the earnings release. Another excellent quarter. We saw solid new business, fantastic retention and growing claim counts. We posted organic of 7.7% and margins at 20.6%, both were right in line with our June IR Day outlook.

現在讓我們轉向收益發布第 5 頁和第 6 頁上的風險管理部分以及有機表和 EBITDA 表。又是一個出色的季度。我們看到了穩固的新業務、出色的保留率和不斷增長的索賠數量。我們公佈的有機成長率為 7.7%，利潤率為 20.6%，兩者都與我們 6 月投資者關係日的預期相符。

Looking forward, as Pat said, we see organic in each of the next two quarters, around 7% and margins around 20.5%. If we were to post that, we would finish the year with organic of 9% and margins of approximately 20.5%, that also would be great work by the team.

展望未來，正如帕特所說，我們預計未來兩個季度的有機成長率約為 7%，利潤率約為 20.5%。如果我們發布這項數據，我們今年的自然成長率將達到 9%，利潤率約為 20.5%，這也是團隊的出色工作。

Turning to page 6 of the earnings release in the corporate segment, shortcut table adjusted second quarter numbers came in just a better than the favorable end of our June IR Day expectations, all that was due to some favorable tax items within the corporate expense line.

轉向企業部門收益發布的第 6 頁，捷徑表調整後的第二季度數據僅好於我們 6 月 IR Day 預期的有利結果，所有這一切都是由於企業費用項目中的一些有利的稅收項目。

All right. Now let's move to the CFO commentary document starting on page 3, a few comments. First, foreign exchange, the dollar has weakened over the past month, so please make sure you incorporate these updated revenue and EPS impacts from FX in your models for the brokerage and risk management segment.

好的。現在讓我們轉向從第 3 頁開始的 CFO 評論文件，其中有一些評論。首先，在外匯方面，過去一個月美元走弱，因此請確保將外匯對收入和每股盈餘的最新影響納入經紀和風險管理領域的模型中。

Second brokerage segment or amortization expense. Recall, while this impacts reporting GAAP results we adjusted out so it doesn't impact adjusted non-GAAP earnings. This lending can also be a bit noisy from time to time. Late this quarter, we received updated third party M&A valuation estimates on a third or excuse me on a few recent acquisitions and also made some balance sheet adjustments at the end of the quarter.

第二經紀業務或攤銷費用。回想一下，雖然這會影響報告的 GAAP 結果，但我們進行了調整，因此它不會影響調整後的非 GAAP 收益。這種貸款有時也會有點吵。本季末，我們收到了最新的第三方併購估值估算，或對最近的幾筆收購進行了原諒，並在本季度末進行了一些資產負債表調整。

You'll see that in footnote two at the bottom of the page. Looking forward, we expect amortization expense of about $155 million per quarter. Again, all of that is adjusted out but it does cause some noise in the reported GAAP results.

您將在頁面底部的腳註二中看到這一點。展望未來，我們預計每季攤銷費用約為 1.55 億美元。同樣，所有這些都被調整掉了，但它確實在報告的 GAAP 結果中造成了一些噪音。

Next the risk management amortization and depreciation line. Here too, we received updated M&A valuation estimates for our recent acquisition which is also described in footnote five. The net impact to non-GAAP results is about a penny to EPS this quarter. And going forward, we're now expecting a lower level of depreciation and amortization as a result of that M&A valuation reporting.

接下來是風險管理攤提和折舊線。在這裡，我們也收到了最近收購的最新併購估值估計，腳註五也對此進行了描述。對非公認會計準則業績的淨影響約為本季每股收益 1 美分。展望未來，我們預計，由於併購估值報告，折舊和攤銷水準將會降低。

Turning to the corporate segment on page 4, no change to our outlook for the third and fourth quarter. Flipping to page 5 to our tax credit forward -- carry forwards shows about $800 million at June 30. While this benefit won't show up in the P&L, it does benefit our cash flow by about $150 million to $180 million a year, which helps us fund future M&A.

轉向第 4 頁的企業部門，我們對第三季和第四季的展望沒有改變。翻到第5 頁，我們的稅收抵免遠期結轉顯示截至6 月30 日的金額約為8 億美元。受益約1.5 億至1.8 億美元，這有助於我們為未來的併購提供資金。

Turning now to page 6, the investment income table. We call this modeling help or breaks down the components of investment income, premium finance revenues, book gains and equity investments in third party brokers. And as a reminder, none of these items are included in our organic growth computations that we present on pages 3 and 5 of our earnings release.

現在翻到第 6 頁，投資損益表。我們將此模型稱為幫助或分解第三方經紀商的投資收入、溢價財務收入、帳面收益和股權投資的組成部分。提醒一下，這些項目均未包含在我們在收益發布的第 3 頁和第 5 頁上介紹的自然成長計算中。

The punchline here is not much has changed from what we provided at our June IR Day, we are still embedding to 25 basis point rate cuts in the second half of '24, and we have updated our estimates on in this table for current FX rates. When you shut down on that page to the rollover revenue table, second quarter '24 column, the subtotal shows $128 million and $142 million before divestitures. The $142 million was better than our IR Day outlook due to a few acquisitions performing very well during June.

這裡的要點與我們在 6 月 IR Day 上提供的內容相比並沒有太大變化，我們仍在 24 年下半年降息 25 個基點，並且我們更新了此表中對當前外匯匯率的估計。當您關閉該頁面上的滾動收入表，24 年第二季列時，小計顯示剝離前的 1.28 億美元和 1.42 億美元。由於 6 月份的一些收購表現非常好，1.42 億美元的表現優於我們的 IR Day 預期。

Looking forward, the pinkish columns to the right include estimated revenues for M&A closed through yesterday. So just a reminder, you'll need to make a pick for future M&A. Moving down on that page, you'll see risk management segment rollover revenues have been updated for early third quarter acquisition. For the next two quarters, we expect approximately $20 million and $15 million, respectively. Please make sure to reflect these additional revenues in your models.

展望未來，右側的粉紅色欄包括截至昨天結束的併購的估計收入。所以提醒一下，您需要為未來的併購做出選擇。在該頁面上向下移動，您將看到風險管理部門的展期收入已針對第三季初的收購進行了更新。對於接下來的兩個季度，我們預計分別約為 2000 萬美元和 1500 萬美元。請確保在您的模型中反映這些額外收入。

Moving now to cash, capital management and M&A funding available cash on hand at June 30, was approaching $700 million. When combined with our expected free cash flow in the second half of '24, which is typically stronger than first half, we are well positioned for our pipeline of M&A opportunities. In total, we continue to estimate we could have $3.5 billion to fund M&A opportunities during '24 and another $4 billion '25, all while maintaining a solid investment grade debt rating. And remember, if we don't spend at all, it opens the door for share repurchases as well.

現在轉向現金、資本管理和併購融資，截至 6 月 30 日，手頭可用現金接近 7 億美元。結合我們 24 年下半年的預期自由現金流（通常強於上半年），我們為併購機會做好了充分準備。總的來說，我們繼續估計我們可以在 24 年期間為併購機會提供 35 億美元的資金，在 25 年期間再提供 40 億美元的資金，同時保持穩健的投資級債務評級。請記住，如果我們根本不花錢，它也會為股票回購打開大門。

Okay. Another excellent quarter and fantastic first half of the year.

好的。又是一個出色的季度和出色的上半年。

Looking ahead, we see continued strong organic growth due to net new business wins, a large and growing M&A pipeline and many opportunities for productivity improvements. Add that to a winning culture and I to believe we are very well positioned to deliver another terrific year here in '24. Thanks. to all the hard work by the team, and back to you, Pat.

展望未來，由於淨新業務的贏得、規模龐大且不斷增長的併購管道以及許多提高生產力的機會，我們看到持續強勁的有機成長。再加上獲勝的文化，我相信我們已經做好充分準備，在 24 年再創輝煌的一年。謝謝。感謝團隊的所有辛勤工作，也感謝你，帕特。

Thanks, Doug. Operator, you and open it up for questions, please.

謝謝，道格。接線員，請打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. Good evening. My first question is on the wholesale organic growth. You guys said it came in at 11% in the quarter. I believe the IR Day guide was 7% to 9%, and I think that reflected the slowdown you expected in open brokerage, I think, on the property side. So what changed relative to that guidance, and how the results came in the quarter?

你好謝謝。晚安.我的第一個問題是關於批發有機成長。你們說這個季度的成長率是 11%。我認為 IR Day 的指導值為 7% 至 9%，我認為這反映了您對房地產方面公開經紀業務放緩的預期。那麼，相對於該指導方針發生了什麼變化，以及本季的結果如何？

Listen, we had a terrific finish to the end of June. Submissions were up 31% during June. There is clearly a continued use of wholesalers, we're not seeing really any significant shift back to the primary market and the submissions were up and so our guidance is up.

聽著，我們在六月底取得了圓滿的成績。 6 月的提交數量增加了 31%。顯然，批發商正在繼續使用，我們沒有看到任何重大的回到一級市場的轉變，而且提交的數量增加了，因此我們的指導也增加了。

Okay. And then you at your IR Day, you also had said when we think about next year, that it feels a lot like 2024. I think the assumption right is perhaps something still within the range of 7% to 9% organic in brokerage. I'm assuming that still remains the case, if you could confirm that, it's obviously been a few weeks. And then if that's the case next year, if this year's margin expansion was 80 basis points without the Buck and M&A noise, would that be the rule of thumb in terms of margin expansion for next year if you're in the 7% to 9% organic growth range?

好的。然後您在 IR 日上也說過，當我們考慮明年時，感覺很像 2024 年。我假設情況仍然如此，如果你能證實這一點，那顯然已經過去了幾週了。然後，如果明年是這種情況，如果今年的利潤率擴張是80 個基點，而沒有降壓和併購噪音，那麼如果您處於7% 到9% 的範圍內，這將是明年利潤率擴張的經驗法則有機成長幅度百分比？

Well, yeah, let's reaffirm that we see next year, it could be very similar to this year. Let's see what happens with hurricane season, casualty rates, interest rates, the election. So there's some unknowns that are happening, but we still think that next year feels a lot like where this year will come in.

嗯，是的，讓我們重申一下，明年的情況可能與今年非常相似。讓我們看看颶風季節、傷亡率、利率和選舉會發生什麼。因此，正在發生一些未知的情況，但我們仍然認為明年的情況與今年的情況相似。

When it comes to margin expansion, let us work on that a little bit during our budget season, we'll start that before our September IR Day. We should have a good idea in October, but there's nothing systemic out there that would cause us to believe that in a 7% to 9% organic environment, you could see margins up in that 75 basis point to 100 basis point range.

當談到利潤率擴張時，讓我們在預算季期間稍微努力一下，我們將在 9 月投資者關係日之前開始。我們應該在10 月就有一個好主意，但沒有任何系統性的東西能讓我們相信，在7% 至9% 的有機環境中，你可以看到利潤率在75 個基點至100 個基點範圍內上升。

Okay. Thanks. And then my last one. You guys said -- you said you have $3.5 billion to fund M&A this year. How much did you spend in the first half of the year? And given the pipeline that you guys see -- does it feel like there might be some buyback this year? Or is it still kind of TBD?

好的。謝謝。然後是我的最後一個。你們說——你們說今年有 35 億美元用於併購。上半年你花了多少錢？考慮到你們看到的管道——今年是否感覺可能會有一些回購？或者它仍然是一種待定？

So I think we've spent around $700 million thus far this year, we have some commitments out there. Do I see us having some buybacks. Maybe we do have the large earn-out payable that's due right after the first of the year also that's generally we don't include that in that number. We kind of anticipate that, but that -- we'll see, I just got off the phone an hour ago with one of our M&A bird dogs here in the US, and he's really starting to feel upward pressure on opportunities for M&A. There are some that are sitting there thinking that we'll see what happens with the November election, if it goes Republican, there's a lot of proposals to drop the capital gains rate maybe down to 15%.

所以我認為今年到目前為止我們已經花費了大約 7 億美元，我們有一些承諾。我看到我們有一些回購嗎？也許我們確實有一大筆應付款項在年初後到期，而且通常我們不會將其包含在該數字中。我們有點預料到了這一點，但是，我們會看到，一小時前我剛剛和我們在美國的一隻併購鳥狗通了電話，他真的開始感受到併購機會的上行壓力。有些人坐在那裡，認為我們會看看 11 月大選會發生什麼，如果共和黨獲勝，會有很多建議將資本利得率降至 15%。

So you might have people that try to push that into January. If the Democrats win, then there might be a push to get things sold before the end of the year. So we're sitting very similar to where we were before an election three and a half years ago and where we were seven and a half years ago, there is a lot of uncertainty on M&A flow that revolves around the presidential election. So I think we've got a great shot of using it all and if not, we'll take a look at what happens on share repurchases.

因此，可能有人會嘗試將其推遲到一月份。如果民主黨獲勝，那麼可能會推動在年底前出售商品。因此，我們的處境與三年半前選舉前和七年半前的情況非常相似，圍繞總統選舉的併購流程存在著許多不確定性。因此，我認為我們很有可能充分利用這一切，如果沒有，我們將看看股票回購會發生什麼。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Elyse.

謝謝，愛麗絲。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Michael Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Hey. Thanks, good afternoon. I hope this question makes sense. But on the pricing environment, you always give good commentary on the renewal premium changes and you kind of give it overall and by product line. And so the RPC, right, has decelerated more recently to around five, how is that interchanging with your organic growth? Why is there a bigger delta now between your organic and RPC versus what we saw early this year and last year?

嘿。謝謝，下午好。我希望這個問題有意義。但在定價環境上，你總是對續訂保費的變化給出很好的評論，並且你可以整體和按產品線給出它。因此，RPC（正確的）最近已減速至 5 左右，這與您的有機成長有何關係？與我們今年年初和去年看到的情況相比，為什麼現在你們的有機產品和 RPC 之間會有更大的差異？

All right. So a great thing and maybe we haven't talked about it directly for quite a few quarters, but you always have to think about the opt-in, opt-out of the buyers' behavior. When prices are going up, buyers opt out of coverages, which might mean they increase the deductible, lower a limit or just don't buy certain coverages.

好的。這是一件很棒的事情，也許我們已經有好幾個季度沒有直接討論過它了，但你總是必須考慮買家行為的選擇加入和選擇退出。當價格上漲時，買家選擇退出保險，這可能意味著他們增加免賠額、降低限額或乾脆不購買某些保險。

As prices start to moderate or slower amounts of increases, they tend to opt back in. They reduce their deductibles, they raised their limits and maybe they buy coverages and they said, we just couldn't afford before. So if you go all the way back into our investor materials, there is always a delta between rate and exposure and what our organic growth is.

隨著價格開始放緩或漲幅放緩，他們往往會選擇重新加入。因此，如果你仔細回顧我們的投資者材料，你會發現利率和風險敞口與我們的有機成長之間總是存在差異。

And so that's why in periods when you see property is up 12%, we're not growing our property lines by 12%. They're growing 7%, 8%, 9% that's actually our revenue. So you always have to remember the opt-in, opt-out impact. Then the other thing to do is you got the dynamic of large accounts versus mid-market and small accounts that can influence that. So we're giving you a feel of what's going on in the market, but the behavior of our actual customers can vary depending on by rational buying behavior. Prices go down, I buy more. Prices go up, I buy less.

這就是為什麼當你看到房地產上漲 12% 的時期，我們的房地產額度卻沒有成長 12%。他們成長了 7%、8%、9%，這實際上是我們的收入。因此，您必須始終記住選擇加入和選擇退出的影響。然後要做的另一件事是了解大型帳戶與中端市場和小型帳戶的動態，從而影響這一點。因此，我們讓您了解市場上正在發生的事情，但我們實際客戶的行為可能會因理性購買行為而有所不同。價格下降，我買更多。物價上漲，我買的少了。

As Doug said, let me hit on that as well, Mike. Let's not forget what our job is. So Doug hit right on it. When rate and exposure looks like it's up 12% and you say, well, how come you're not seeing that write in your renewal book. Our job is to mitigate that, and we start right with that promise like wait a minute, here's where we see the market coming. A good broker gets out in front of this with their clients' months. Here's what we see in the market, here is what's coming, what are we going to do about it. Let's take retentions up. Remember, you dropped to cover before now it's time to add it. So there's a lot of moving parts between those two numbers.

正如道格所說，麥克，讓我也談談這一點。我們不要忘記我們的工作是什麼。所以道格就擊中了它。當費率和曝光率看起來上漲了 12% 時，您會說，好吧，為什麼您在續訂簿上沒有看到這一點。我們的工作是緩解這種情況，我們從這個承諾開始，等一下，這就是我們看到的市場即將到來的地方。一個好的經紀人會用他們客戶的幾個月來解決這個問題。這是我們在市場上看到的情況，這是即將發生的情況，我們將採取什麼措施。讓我們提高保留率。請記住，您之前已經隱藏起來，現在是時候添加它了。所以這兩個數字之間有很多變化的部分。

Got it. And obviously, it's great you guys disclosed it. And so I guess I just want to put a final point on it. Is it fair to say that you're doing a good job for your clients and on a year-over-year basis, it's putting out a little bit of, I guess, pressure on your organic year-over-year? And separately related rate (technical difficulty) do clients have the same amount of flexibility as they do, in other lines that would cause the RPC disconnect to continue?

知道了。顯然，很高興你們透露了這一點。所以我想我只想提出最後一點。可以公平地說，您為客戶做得很好，並且逐年增加，我想，這給您的有機逐年帶來了一點壓力？單獨相關的速率（技術難度），客戶端是否具有與其他線路相同的靈活性，這會導致 RPC 斷開連接繼續？

Yeah, definitely. Absolutely. Number one, yes, if you throw me the softball, we're doing a good job for our clients, the answer is going to be best in the business, and we think these numbers show that. And we think the growth numbers show it. Absolutely. And yes, you'll continue to see always some change between what's being reported as growth in units of exposure and premium rates based on what we do. And the tools in our toolbox are unbelievable. So do you want to look at a captive? Would you like to take your attention up? It's not just, do you buy insurance or don't.

是的，絕對是。絕對地。第一，是的，如果你把壘球扔給我，我們為客戶做得很好，答案將是業內最好的，我們認為這些數字表明了這一點。我們認為成長數字表明了這一點。絕對地。是的，根據我們的工作，您將繼續看到所報告的風險單位成長和保費率之間總是存在一些變化。我們工具箱中的工具令人難以置信。那你想看看俘虜嗎？你想引起你的注意嗎？這不僅僅是你買或不買保險的問題。

Let's start with the things that maybe are the last things you should insure and the first things you'll self-insure. There's a lot of that work going on with our people every single day. By the way, that appetite for risk is very individual, it's not prescriptive. You can't take a book, there's no AI that says, Oh, an auto dealer has this much appetite for risk based on the number of cars in a lot. It's not how it works.

讓我們從您最不應該投保以及您首先要自我投保的事情開始。我們的員工每天都會做很多這樣的工作。順便說一句，風險偏好是因人而異的，而不是規定性的。你不能拿一本書，沒有人工智慧會說，哦，汽車經銷商根據批次中的汽車數量有這麼大的風險偏好。它不是這樣運作的。

So that's where our profession comes in and dealing with those people, and then our advice is critical. It's not just, well, I'm pretty bold here. I think $1 million retention makes a lot of sense. Wait, wait, wait, we think it looks better this way, and that's what we get paid to do.

因此，這就是我們的專業介入並與這些人打交道的地方，然後我們的建議至關重要。這不僅僅是，嗯，我在這裡非常大膽。我認為 100 萬美元的保留很有意義。等等，等等，等等，我們認為這樣看起來更好，這就是我們拿錢做的事情。

Got it. That's helpful. And just lastly, pivoting to reinsurance. To the extent you have a view, one of the largest reinsurers today put out some data kind of showing that reinsurance demand. I mean you guys have done a great job not only taking market share, but kind of being able to keep your organic high because of that demand, increased like mid teens-ish this year.

知道了。這很有幫助。最後，轉向再保險。就您的觀點而言，今天最大的再保險公司之一發布了一些數據來顯示再保險需求。我的意思是你們做得很好，不僅佔據了市場份額，而且由於需求而保持了較高的有機水平，今年的需求增長了大約十幾歲。

And if we kind of think about what's going on in personal lines, there's a lot of inflation. So just curious, would you expect kind of demand for reinsurance. I don't know if you think all the way into 2025 yet, but to remain at kind of pretty high levels relative to historical and relative to this year?

如果我們考慮一下個人方面的情況，就會發現通貨膨脹嚴重。所以只是好奇，您會期望再保險的需求嗎？我不知道您是否認為一直到 2025 年，但相對於歷史和今年，仍保持在相當高的水平？

You'll go up. Yeah, I do for a lot of reasons. I think that you're going to see the opportunity to buy more at prices that look more reasonable. And there have been cutbacks in the purchase of certain. The other thing is that these nuclear verdicts are real, and people are seeing that and they're going -- it doesn't cost us much to buy on the high-end, the top of the tower, it does downward there's a lot more activity. And I still want to be sitting here with some goofball jury comes up with a $1 billion award.

你會上去的。是的，我這樣做有很多原因。我認為您將有機會以看起來更合理的價格購買更多產品。某些產品的購買也有所減少。另一件事是，這些核裁決是真實的，人們正在看到這一點，並且他們會去 - 我們在高端、塔頂購買並不需要花費太多，但向下確實有很多更多活動。我仍然想坐在這裡和一些愚蠢的陪審團一起頒發 10 億美元的獎項。

Got it. So coming as seaside too, maybe more demand. Okay. Thank you, very much.

知道了。所以來到海邊，也許需求會更多。好的。非常感謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good afternoon, everyone. (multiple speakers) I guess for my first question. During your Investor Day, you spoke about net new business wins and clearly our results reflect that. I was wondering if you could give us some more color on how the quarter shaped up and how we should think about your net new business in the second quarter versus, say the net new business wins in the second quarter last year or some additional metrics around that?.

大家下午好。 （多位發言者）我想我的第一個問題。在投資者日期間，您談到了新業務淨成長，我們的業績顯然反映了這一點。我想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於本季度的情況以及我們應該如何考慮第二季度的淨新業務與去年第二季度的淨新業務的增長或其他一些指標的信息那？

Well, it'll take me a minute to dig it out, but I can tell you that June year-to-date, we've actually expanded the spread between new and lost by a full point. And I think that's probably the best way to look at it. The absolute numbers are kind of irrelevant. Our non-recurring is also coming back before some of the non-recurring revenues might have been putting just a slight drag on organic, but now they're actually being in line with just our recurring business.

好吧，我需要一分鐘才能把它挖出來，但我可以告訴你，今年六月至今，我們實際上已經將新的和失去的之間的差距擴大了整整一個百分點。我認為這可能是看待這個問題的最佳方式。絕對數字有點無關緊要。在一些非經常性收入可能對有機業務造成輕微拖累之前，我們的非經常性收入也有所恢復，但現在它們實際上與我們的經常性業務保持一致。

So you're seeing an expansion of our spread between new and lost. How do we see that going forward? Gets more and more complicated. I actually think our team will do a better job showing our wares and our capabilities in a more of a stable rate environment versus kind of some of the chaotic rate environment that we've been seeing over the last few years.

所以你會看到新的和失去的之間的差距正在擴大。我們如何看待未來的發展？變得越來越複雜。事實上，我認為我們的團隊會在更穩定的費率環境中更好地展示我們的產品和我們的能力，而不是在過去幾年我們看到的一些混亂的費率環境中。

We've developed -- we spent so much money on resources in the last five years. Three of those were consumed with COVID, two of those have been consumed with some chaotic market behavior. Put our guys on a field with kind of calm rate environment, a client that's not trying to just save their business and rebuilding it after COVID, I think you'd be amazed at the digital and data and analytics and expertise. And now bring our reinsurance folks into bear, stack them up with our wholesalers, I got to tell you, it is a compelling offer at the point of sale that I would think that would absolutely deliver better net new business, more new, less loss as our clients really see the capabilities that we have built over the last five years.

我們已經發展起來——過去五年我們在資源上花了很多錢。其中三個是因為新冠疫情而消耗的，其中兩個是因為一些混亂的市場行為而消耗的。讓我們的員工處於一個平靜的環境中，一個不只是試圖挽救自己的業務並在新冠疫情後重建業務的客戶，我想你會對數字、數據、分析和專業知識感到驚訝。現在讓我們的再保險人員承擔責任，將它們與我們的批發商放在一起，我必須告訴你，這是銷售點的一個令人信服的報價，我認為這絕對會帶來更好的淨新業務，更多新業務，更少損失因為我們的客戶真正看到了我們在過去五年中建立的能力。

Arguably, maybe we've spent $1 billion in capabilities over the last seven years, something like that. So that's going to come out at the point of sale and give us a little calm in the market, and I think you're going to see our new business continue to go up.

可以說，過去七年我們可能在能力上花了 10 億美元，諸如此類。因此，這將在銷售點出現，讓我們的市場稍微平靜一些，我想你會看到我們的新業務繼續成長。

Excellent color. Thank you. One of the things you've also talked expansively about in the past is the offshore centers of excellence. And this kind of dovetails with the opportunities for margin expansion. Is it your sense for Arthur J. Gallagher that you sort of maximize those opportunities? Or do you see further potential for more opportunities in offshoring to help drive some margin improvement?

色彩極佳。謝謝。您過去也廣泛談論過的事情之一是離岸卓越中心。這與利潤擴張的機會相符。亞瑟·J·加拉格爾 (Arthur J. Gallagher) 認為您會最大限度地利用這些機會嗎？或者您認為離岸外包有更多機會來幫助提高利潤率？

Well, this is Pat, Greg. Let me take the operational side of that, and I'll throw the ball to Doug for the numbers and any kind of discussion there. But everywhere I look, I see opportunity and unbelievable benefits from using our centers of excellence. We started off checking policies 20 years ago with 12 people. We now have 12,000 people supporting over 400 services in 100 countries. It is unbelievable the level of professionalism that they help us attain.

嗯，這是帕特，格雷格。讓我來談談操作方面的問題，我將把球交給道格，讓他來了解數字和任何類型的討論。但無論我走到哪裡，我都能看到利用我們的卓越中心帶來的機會和難以置信的好處。 20 年前，我們開始與 12 個人一起檢視政策。我們現在擁有 12,000 名員工，為 100 個國家的 400 多項服務提供支援。他們幫助我們達到了令人難以置信的專業水平。

And that is a differentiator at the point of sale. It's a differentiator when we're recruiting. It's a differentiator in everything we do, and I don't see any sense of that slowing down or not being something that continues to expand. It's not just about replacing heads by any means.

這就是銷售點的差異化因素。這是我們招募時的一個差異化因素。這是我們所做的一切的一個差異化因素，我沒有看到任何放緩或不再繼續擴張的感覺。這不僅僅是以任何方式更換頭部。

It's about having the people that should be doing things, doing them and freeing up those that should be doing other things, giving them the time to do that, which I do think feeds into retention and new business. So I think that our centers of excellence are a unique product offering back to Doug's point about all the things we've invested in.

關鍵是讓那些應該做事的人，去做這些事情，並釋放那些應該做其他事情的人，給他們時間去做這件事，我確實認為這有助於保留和新業務。因此，我認為我們的卓越中心是一種獨特的產品，可以追溯到道格關於我們投資的所有事物的觀點。

I think they are a very beneficial add to our sales list of things we provide at Gallagher. And as we grow through acquisitions alone, every one of those people join us and we immediately start plugging them into this resource, which is another one of the reasons they join us. So to me, it's a very differentiating thing that we do. I think our team there is absolutely spectacular, and I'll let Doug address the numbers.

我認為它們對我們加拉格爾提供的銷售清單非常有益。當我們僅透過收購來成長時，每一個人都加入了我們，我們立即開始將他們納入這項資源，這是他們加入我們的另一個原因之一。所以對我來說，這是我們所做的一件非常與眾不同的事情。我認為我們的團隊絕對是出色的，我會讓道格來談談這些數字。

Yeah. I think if you talk about the growth path of our offshore centers of excellence, I think remember they work only for us. They're an integral part of our team, there isn't that they or we they are us. If you look at some of our outlook, if we're going to be $20 billion of revenue, there'll be almost 30,000 folks there. So the growth path of our India and other area service centers will grow faster than the headcount in our other areas. But more importantly on this is we've been on this nearly 20-year journey now to standardize, make our operations consistent. It really is going to allow us to deploy AI into that environment.

是的。我認為，如果你談論我們離岸卓越中心的成長道路，我想請記住它們只為我們工作。他們是我們團隊不可或缺的一部分，他們或我們並不代表他們就是我們。如果你看看我們的一些前景，如果我們的收入達到 200 億美元，那麼那裡將有近 30,000 人。因此，我們印度和其他地區服務中心的成長路徑將比我們其他地區的員工數量成長得更快。但更重要的是，我們已經踏上了近 20 年的標準化之旅，使我們的營運保持一致。它確實允許我們將人工智慧部署到該環境中。

AI is terrific when you have consistency of information and repeatable behaviors and processes. And we have that, and we've spent nearly 20 years doing this. We have a jump, I believe, compared to most by almost a decade. And I think that some of the tests that we're using with AI now will make our folks there better, will make the different type of job for our folks in the centers better, it will make our sales folks better, our service folks better. And I can speak, and I've got 57% of my entire global finance, worldwide finance team operating out of there, and I can see it going to 80%. So it is going to be a service and sales differentiator for us because of the hard work we've put in for the last 15 years.

當資訊具有一致性以及可重複的行為和流程時，人工智慧就會非常棒。我們已經做到了這一點，而且我們已經花了近 20 年的時間來做這件事。我相信，與大多數國家相比，我們已經實現了近十年的飛躍。我認為我們現在使用人工智慧進行的一些測試將使我們的人員變得更好，將使我們在中心的人員的不同類型的工作變得更好，這將使我們的銷售人員更好，我們的服務人員更好。我可以說，我的整個全球財務、全球財務團隊的 57% 都是在那裡運作的，我可以預見這一比例會增加到 80%。因此，由於我們過去 15 年的努力工作，這將成為我們服務和銷售的優勢。

Thanks for the color. Just a point of clarification. And I probably should know this number, Doug, but I don't remember. On the capital management side, you said, well listen, if we can't do the deals, you get through your earn-out, you might consider share repurchase. When was the last time you guys were active in share repurchase?

謝謝你的顏色。只是澄清一點。我可能應該知道這個號碼，道格，但我不記得了。在資本管理方面，你說，好吧，聽著，如果我們不能完成交易，你就完成了盈利，你可能會考慮股票回購。你們上一次積極參與股票回購是什麼時候？

Well, let's see, it probably was maybe in 2000, when was Brexit? 2007 or 2008 years ago, whatever Brexit was.

好吧，讓我們看看，大概是 2000 年，英國脫歐是什麼時候？ 2007年或2008年前，無論英國脫歐是什麼時候。

Okay. All right. Thanks, for the answers.

好的。好的。謝謝，您的答案。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

David Motemaden, Evercore.

大衛莫特馬登，Evercore。

Hey, thanks, good evening. I just had a question. I was hoping to get a little bit more color on the July RPC acceleration that you mentioned, Doug. Maybe just a little bit around the lines, is it property moderation kind of pausing, or is a casualty acceleration. What's going on there?

嘿，謝謝，晚上好。我只是有一個問題。 Doug，我希望對您提到的 7 月 RPC 加速有更多了解。也許只是有點繞線，是財產調節的暫停，還是傷亡加速。那裡發生了什麼事？

Well, actually, a little bit of both. We actually saw it in property. And actually, property is a pretty heavy quarter for us here in the second quarter. If you think it's about a third of our business, I think here in the second quarter, it might comprise 50% of our mix. So property in July, we did see a slight tick up. I'm talking a point or so. I'm not talking about is five or eight points. It's one point to two.

嗯，實際上，兩者都有一點。我們實際上在房地產中看到了這一點。事實上，第二季房地產市場對我們來說是一個相當沉重的季度。如果你認為它約占我們業務的三分之一，我認為在第二季度，它可能占我們業務的 50%。所以七月份的房地產，我們確實看到了小漲。我正在談論一個觀點。我說的不是五點八點。比數是一比二。

Casualty rates are showing some, I wouldn't say acceleration. We used the word advancement in terms of where they are because -- but they're steady. We'll see what happens with pricing here in the second half of the year coming out of the carriers, so I would expect that to advance more. So not a jump up, but certainly, again our dailies, they come out overnight. I looked at it last night, and we're seeing a tick up on both property and on casualty.

傷亡率正在上升，但我不會說是加速。我們用「進步」這個詞來形容他們所處的位置，因為——但他們是穩定的。我們將看到下半年營運商的定價會發生什麼，所以我預計價格會進一步上漲。所以不是一個跳躍，但當然，我們的日報，它們在一夜之間就出來了。我昨晚看了，我們看到財產和傷亡人數都有所上升。

Got it. Thanks. And there was a line in the press release on the adjusted comp ratio that caught my eye, just where you noted savings related to headcount controls. That's the first time I've seen that in -- I can't remember how long. I'm just wondering, is that -- I guess, is that something to do with the offshore centers or is this more of a concerted effort to show some margin expansion as we think about this year and into next year?

知道了。謝謝。新聞稿中關於調整後的薪酬比率的一行字引起了我的注意，就在您提到與人員控制相關的節省的地方。這是我第一次看到這種情況——我不記得多久了。我只是想知道，我猜，這與離岸中心有關，還是這更像是我們在考慮今年和明年時顯示出一些利潤率擴張的共同努力？

I think that the answer is this. First of all, if you look at what we did during COVID, we actually took out quite a few folks, and we've been hiring back since then. Our business has grown into that. We haven't stopped hiring by any means, so it's not an indication of everything. I think the teams just are seeing of their workload models that we're probably okay staffed in the environment that we are right now. So I would read that into it, but nothing systemic, but just maybe that we've hired back into the capacity that we need in 2023.

我想答案是這樣的。首先，如果你看看我們在新冠疫情期間所做的事情，我們實際上解雇了很多人，從那時起我們就一直在重新招聘。我們的業務已經發展到這個程度。我們並沒有以任何方式停止招聘，所以這並不能說明一切。我認為團隊只是看到了他們的工作負載模型，我們現在的環境中的人員配備可能還不錯。因此，我會對此進行解讀，但沒有什麼系統性的內容，但也許我們已經重新僱用了 2023 年所需的人員。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just sneaking one more in. Just on the contingent commission accruals that you guys had made the true-up to this quarter. I guess, we have seen a lot of noise this quarter on casualty reserves, particularly on the more recent years. I'm wondering how you feel about the potential for more of those reserve adjustments to come through and how that might impact the contingents?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是再偷偷地進來一次。我想，本季我們在傷亡準備金方面看到了很多噪音，尤其是最近幾年。我想知道您對進行更多預備隊調整的可能性有何看法，以及這可能會對特遣隊產生什麼影響？

All right. First of all, on the supplementals, we've done pretty well year-to-date. Contingents, we did have some development that happened. We're probably not accruing as, I don't want to use the word bullish, but I will for the second. And as we were -- as maybe we could. Casualty, we're cautious on it. Some of our programs and some of our binding operations, you got to be a little bit careful on performance-related compensation there.

好的。首先，在補充方面，我們今年迄今做得很好。特遣隊，我們確實取得了一些進展。我們可能不會增加，因為我不想使用看漲這個詞，但我會第二次使用。就像我們一樣——也許我們可以。傷亡，我們對此持謹慎態度。我們的一些程式和一些綁定操作，你必須在與效能相關的補償上稍微小心一些。

But I don't see a systemic shift in how we believe that our total compensation is going to happen. Maybe some bumps a little bit per quarter, but we're talking a couple of $3 million on a $130 million number year-to-date. So it's pretty small.

但我認為我們對總薪酬的看法不會有系統性轉變。也許每季都會有一些波動，但我們談論的是年初至今 1.3 億美元的數字中的 300 萬美元。所以它很小。

Yeah. Understood. Fair. Thank you.

是的。明白了。公平的。謝謝。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克休斯，Truist 證券公司。

Yeah. Thank you, good afternoon. On the risk management business, maybe we've gotten used to the elevated growth for quite an extended period of time, the 7% in the next couple of quarters. Could you maybe just talk about the growth environment there relative to what it might have been in prior years? And what's your expectation? Is this a little bit of a lull or is this a good number?

是的。謝謝你，下午好。在風險管理業務方面，也許我們已經習慣了相當長一段時間內的高速成長，也就是未來幾季的7%。您能否談談那裡相對於前幾年的成長環境？你的期望是什麼？這是一個有點平靜的數字還是一個不錯的數字？

Right. So first of all, let's make sure you asked about the history is that I think in 2022, we posted about 12% annual organic growth, 2023 it was -- excuse me, [2021 it was] 12%, 2022 was about 13% and last year is pushing 16%. This year, if we get 9%, we did talk about a couple of very large wins that we had that incepted in mid-2023.

正確的。首先，讓我們確保您詢問的歷史是，我認為在 2022 年，我們發布了約 12% 的年度有機增長，2023 年是 - 對不起，[2021 年是] 12%，2022 年約為 13%去年則增長了16%。今年，如果我們獲得 9%，我們確實談論了 2023 年中期開始的幾項非常重大的勝利。

What we're seeing in our book of business right now is actually reassuring, not that we need reassurance. This is a great near double-digit grower and has been for a very long time. We're starting to see more and more opportunities in that $2 million to $10 million type customer a year. If you look at the amount of new business sales that are happening relative to, let's say, five years ago, it's nearly doubled now. We're double the size, too, but the carriers are beginning to understand that we offer a highly customizable solution, self-insureds are seeing that our outcomes are better. So I think that there's a market awakening that we -- when we pay nearly $12 billion or $13 billion primarily workers' comp and general liability claims that would be one of the top five, six, seven tiers in the US as measured by total claims paid.

我們現在在業務手冊中看到的實際上是令人放心的，而不是我們需要保證。這是一個接近兩位數的偉大種植者，並且已經持續了很長一段時間。我們開始在每年 200 萬至 1000 萬美元類型的客戶中看到越來越多的機會。如果你看看相對於五年前發生的新業務銷售量，現在幾乎翻了一番。我們的規模也擴大了一倍，但承運人開始明白我們提供了高度可客製化的解決方案，而自保者看到我們的結果更好。因此，我認為市場正在覺醒，當我們支付近 120 億美元或 130 億美元主要是工人賠償和一般責任索賠時，按照索賠總額衡量，這些索賠將成為美國前五、六、七層之一有薪酬的。

So the expertise customizable services is becoming more and more known in the industry. So we're getting many more trips to the plate. Maybe a couple of fewer home runs, but I think we're going to see a lot of doubles and triples out there. So I wouldn't call it a lull because we're in now 9% this year, but we did have two years of some pretty big wins in there.

因此，專業客製化服務在業界越來越為人所知。因此，我們的上壘次數將會增加。也許本壘打會少一些，但我認為我們會看到很多雙壘安打和三壘安打。所以我不會稱之為平靜，因為我們今年的份額為 9%，但我們確實在這兩年中取得了一些相當大的勝利。

But we wrote all the big ones. (laughter) is a lot more difficult, more lumpy than the stuff we're seeing now.

但我們寫了所有大的。 （笑聲）比我們現在看到的東西困難得多，更加複雜。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah, understood. And then the any way to break out within the wholesale to open brokerage versus the MGA and binding?

是的，明白了。那麼有什麼辦法可以在批發市場中突破，開放經紀業務對抗MGA並進行綁定呢？

Yeah. Listen, I think that right now, open brokerage is maybe in that 11% to 13% range. And I think that binding and programs might be in the low-mid-single digits, something like that.

是的。聽著，我認為目前開放經紀業務可能在 11% 到 13% 的範圍內。我認為綁定和程序可能處於低中個位數，類似的東西。

Mark, what I'm most impressed with and pleased with is the fact that you're seeing that open brokerage number keep moving in and nice double digits. My experience with these types of markets, especially with property is that the first line you kind of see submission slow down, people sort of stay where they are. There is our submission count is up substantially for the quarter, for the month, for the year. We are not seeing business flow back to the primaries.

馬克，令我印象最深刻和最高興的是，你看到開放經紀業務的數量不斷增長，並且達到了兩位數。我對這些類型的市場（尤其是房地產市場）的經驗是，您看到的第一行提交速度會放緩，人們會留在原地。我們的提交數量在季度、月份和年度都有大幅增加。我們沒有看到業務回流到初選。

So the -- I think change that we've seen that were excess and surplus is becoming much more of the norm and where people want to check out what a wholesaler can do, and then we earn that business, we're not losing it. So submission counts are up, retention rates are up, new business is up, and that's pretty exciting.

因此，我認為我們所看到的過度和剩餘的變化正在變得更加常態，人們想了解批發商可以做什麼，然後我們贏得了這項業務，我們不會失去它。因此，提交數量增加了，保留率增加了，新業務增加了，這非常令人興奮。

Great. Appreciate it. Thank you.

偉大的。欣賞它。謝謝。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hey, thanks. Yeah, just a question going back on the opt-in, opt-out dynamics. Just curious, does that flow through net new business and that's what's kind of driving the one point higher, you said June year-to-date of net new business or is that something else entirely?

嘿，謝謝。是的，這只是一個關於選擇加入、選擇退出動態的問題。只是好奇，這是否會透過淨新業務流動，這就是推動一個百分點上升的原因，您說的是今年 6 月迄今為止的淨新業務，還是完全是別的東西？

Yeah, I think some of that flows back well, so for instance, a good example of that is a lot of our public entity clients, and as we're very, very sizable in the public entity sector. They just work off a budget and if the primary premiums are rising, they're taking bigger retentions, they're dropping limits, and they don't -- they're not necessarily comfortable with that. So when the opportunity to buy those back up comes up, and they had an extra layer, they expand their coverage, oftentimes, we will call that new business. And at the same time, we're facing the renewal reductions on the stuff that stays with us. But it is a factor of what's available and what their budget restraints are.

是的，我認為其中一些回報很好，例如，一個很好的例子就是我們的許多公共實體客戶，而且我們在公共實體領域的規模非常非常大。他們只是用預算來工作，如果基本保費上漲，他們就會保留更多，他們會降低限額，但他們沒有——他們不一定對此感到滿意。因此，當有機會購買這些備份時，他們就有了額外的一層，他們擴大了覆蓋範圍，通常，我們會稱之為新業務。同時，我們面臨隨身物品續訂減少的問題。但這是可用資源和預算限制的一個因素。

Yeah, I think it's a little tough for us. If they write a new cover and it goes through a different -- if an existing client writes a new cover that goes through our wholesale business, that would be new business. If it's a change in premium level or like a slightly lower deductible or slightly low -- higher retention, that would go as renewal change. It's a little tough sometimes to split that apart. So part of it goes to new business. Probably if I were going to guess, maybe 20%, 25% goes through new business and 75% would go through the renewal premium change.

是的，我認為這對我們來說有點困難。如果他們寫了一個新封面，並且經歷了不同的過程——如果現有客戶寫了一個新封面，並通過了我們的批發業務，那將是新業務。如果是保費水平發生變化，或者免賠額略低或略低——更高的保留率，那麼這將隨著續保變化而變化。有時將其分開有點困難。因此，其中一部分用於新業務。如果我猜的話，可能有 20%、25% 會經歷新業務，75% 會經歷續保保費變動。

Okay. Thanks for walking us through the nuances there. And then just on the revenue indications from the audit endorsements and cancellations, those are remaining positive. Just curious if the rate of change on those is either accelerating or is that decelerating at this point?

好的。感謝您帶我們了解其中的細微差別。然後，僅從審計認可和取消的收入指標來看，這些收入仍然是正面的。只是好奇這些變化的速度目前是在加速還是減速？

All right, great question. So on the surface, we're about the same as they were last year second quarter. But what happened last year's second quarter, we actually had quite a bit of endorsements that came out of the mini banking crisis. You were seeing a lot of banks increasing their D&Os in April of -- March, April of 2023. We didn't have that repeat this year, probably a good thing we're not having that crisis. But interestingly, flat year-over-year carve that out, that's still up pretty nice.

好吧，很好的問題。所以從表面上看，我們與去年第二季的情況大致相同。但去年第二季發生的事情，我們實際上得到了許多來自小型銀行危機的認可。你會看到很多銀行在 2023 年 4 月、3 月、4 月增加了 D&O。但有趣的是，如果同比持平，這仍然相當不錯。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

Mike Ward, Citi.

麥克沃德，花旗銀行。

Thanks guys. I was wondering if you could update us on the progress with your integrated approach where you're going to market with multiple businesses at a time? I think you talked about leveraging programs, reinsurance and Gallagher Bassett together?

多謝你們。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您一次向多個企業進行行銷的綜合方法的最新進展？我想您談到了槓桿計劃、再保險和加拉格爾·巴塞特（Gallagher Bassett）？

All right. So yeah, there's some good program development going on that combines those three together. Then also, you're having the introductions that happen across the units. I think our introductions to our reinsurance folks coming out of our carrier relations folks to the carriers is working very well. We're seeing some nice wins on that. Getting our program folks integrally involved with the reinsurers to create the capital, find the fronting market, it's going very well, at least from the CFO's chair.

好的。所以，是的，正在開發一些將這三者結合在一起的良好程序。此外，您還將進行跨部門的介紹。我認為我們透過承運人關係人員向承運人介紹再保險人員，效果非常好。我們在這方面看到了一些不錯的勝利。讓我們的專案人員與再保險公司全面參與創造資本、尋找前沿市場，進展非常順利，至少從財務長的角度來看是如此。

Yeah. Mike, I think when we talked about that, we weren't talking about taking just individual accounts and saying the way we want to do this is all together now on the XYZ manufacturing company. What we're talking about is what Doug was hitting on. We're now meeting with insurance companies quite regularly, and we're saying, let's talk about the broad base of our relationship. And at that table are our reinsurance people, our benefits people, our service people on the claims side as well as the property casualty production and marketing folks. That is working extremely well for us, and that's really what Doug was talking about.

是的。麥克，我認為當我們談論這個問題時，我們並不是在談論只考慮個人帳戶，也不是說我們現在要在 XYZ 製造公司中實現這一目標。我們正在談論的是道格的想法。我們現在定期與保險公司會面，我們說，讓我們談談我們關係的廣泛基礎。坐在這張桌子上的是我們的再保險人員、福利人員、索賠方的服務人員以及財產傷亡生產和行銷人員。這對我們來說非常有效，這正是道格所說的。

Now at the same time, in RPS, looking across a broad base of programs. We are looking at those saying, okay, we've got about 250 programs in the company. Where are we not, A, doing the reinsurance, B, doing the claims and what should we be doing to make sure that our retailers are using those programs as well. So it's kind of a mixed bag, and it's not like we just take XYZ account to the market and say now it's all or nothing, or to the client and say it's all or nothing. I hope that color gives you a little bit of reference to what we were talking about the last time around as well.

同時，在 RPS 中，我們正在審視廣泛的計劃基礎。我們正在關注那些說，好吧，我們公司有大約 250 個項目。我們在哪裡不可以，A，做再保險，B，做索賠，以及我們應該做什麼來確保我們的零售商也使用這些計劃。所以這是一個魚龍混雜的情況，我們不像我們只是把 XYZ 帳戶告訴市場，然後說現在要么全有要么全無，或者對客戶說要么全有要么全無。我希望這種顏色也能為您提供一些我們上次討論的內容的參考。

Yeah. That's helpful, thank you. And then second question was just on the political election scenario type theme. Curious if you have any other kind of tax credit generation prospects in the pipeline, and any, I guess, political risk to those in the near term that we see?

是的。這很有幫助，謝謝。第二個問題是關於政治選舉情境類型主題。好奇您是否有任何其他類型的稅收抵免產生前景，以及我想我們在短期內看到的任何政治風險？

Well, most of our tax credits are already in the bank. So I think we feel pretty comfortable about that. What are we working on? I think that with [45Q] that really was passed under the previous all above the line inflation reduction at, it's made the tax credit market much more common, much more defined, broader, but we're pretty well suited for tax credits for the next four to five years. I'm not -- I don't think we need to plunge into new tax credit projects right now because we just generate the credits and they sit on the shelf for four or five years.

嗯，我們的大部分稅收抵免已經存入銀行。所以我認為我們對此感到很舒服。我們正在做什麼？我認為，隨著[45Q]確實在之前所有高於線通膨削減的情況下通過，它使稅收抵免市場更加普遍，更加明確，更廣泛，但我們非常適合稅收抵免未來四到五年。我不是——我認為我們現在不需要投入新的稅收抵免項目，因為我們只是產生了稅收抵免，而它們將被擱置四到五年。

The team is working on it, and there are some exciting things that are happening out there across all forms of clean energy that are exciting. But I don't see us doing something big in the next 1.5 years. Let's burn through these credits first, and then we'll see about what we can do.

團隊正在努力解決這個問題，在各種形式的清潔能源領域正在發生一些令人興奮的事情。但我不認為我們會在未來 1.5 年內做出什麼大事。讓我們先瀏覽一下這些積分，然後再看看我們能做些什麼。

And by that time, there'll be a robust market out there for tax credits. You can get insurance on it now that much more to ensure the credit. So that's a good change in the law. Right now, I think the law is pretty well suited for us to do something in a few years and probably not have to do it with a lot of capital investment into it either.

到那時，稅收抵免將會有一個強勁的市場。現在您可以購買更多保險來確保信用。所以這是法律上的一個很好的改變。現在，我認為法律非常適合我們在幾年內做一些事情，而且可能不需要投入大量資本。

Okay. So maybe if I'm thinking about it right, that this dynamic should help bolster you in terms of, I don't know, having extra leverage in the M&A scenario if rates are cut. That should help sort of bolster your competitive edge, I would think. And do you have like a sort of update on the PE interest in the market?

好的。因此，也許如果我的想法正確的話，這種動態應該有助於支持你，我不知道，如果利率下調，在併購場景中擁有額外的槓桿作用。我認為這應該有助於增強你的競爭優勢。您是否了解市場上私募股權投資興趣的最新情況？

Well, listen not to belabor the PE update. Like I said I just got off the phone with our bird dog. And I got to tell you, my soap box is that I had during the IR Day about the new, what I call less than transparent equity structures that PEs are now doing in order to buy nice family-owned brokers. I think there's starting to be more and more of -- the curtain has been pulled back on that, and I think that sellers are really looking at. They don't have the same equity.

好吧，聽著，不要再囉嗦 PE 更新了。就像我說的，我剛剛和我們的獵鳥通了電話。我必須告訴你，我的肥皂箱是我在投資者關係日期間關於新的、我所說的不太透明的股權結構的，私募股權公司現在正在這樣做，以購買優秀的家族經紀人。我認為越來越多的事情已經拉開，我認為賣家正在真正關注這一點。他們沒有相同的股權。

At Gallagher, you got one equity, owners, employees, people that sell into the business and you on this call own the same equity across the board. That's not how it works now with the PE structures, and it all looks okay, do the models on it, looks okay, what happens if everything goes up in a linear line. Get a little bit of a down draft on that, and the people that give their family's lifetime of work to the PE firms get very little.

在加拉格爾，你擁有一份股權、所有者、員工、出售該業務的人員，而你在這次電話會議上擁有全部相同的股權。現在 PE 結構不是這樣工作的，一切看起來都不錯，在上面做模型，看起來不錯，如果一切都以線性方式上升會發生什麼。如果稍微降低一點，那些將自己的家庭畢生的工作奉獻給私募股權公司的人得到的就很少。

And I'm telling you that is something that needs to be aware out there, and I think that when I talked at one of the bird dog today, he said, it's becoming more and more apparent to sellers they're getting the last spot of the trough.

我告訴你，這是需要注意的事情，我認為當我今天與其中一位鳥狗交談時，他說，對於賣家來說，他們越來越明顯地獲得了最後一個位置的槽。

Let me take another side of that too, Mike. Second quarter, I believe it was Marsh Perry put out a reporter Optus partners. There were 62 buyers of properties in the second quarter alone. There's a lot of private equity interest in our space. That's not stupid money. I do believe that the multiples have risen, that we've been paying for these properties because of that interest over the years.

讓我也談談另一面，麥克。第二季度，我相信是Marsh Perry 推出了Optus 合作夥伴的記者。光是第二季就有 62 位房產買家。我們的領域有很多私募股權投資。這可不是傻錢。我確實相信倍數已經上升，因為多年來我們一直在為這些房產支付利息。

Having said that, I think the quarter was 20% down in actual transactions. So you've got maybe smarter money, maybe smaller amounts of money, but the transaction count is coming down. I think sellers, as Doug said, are getting a little bit more discerning. And I do think when you take a look at what's happened with some of the roll-ups who are now at a point where it's time to go public, and I won't mention any names, you know who they are, well, let's see how that goes. It isn't an easy slog, and I think sellers are seeing that as well. And by the way, it's pretty easy to join somebody that's going to change, nothing in your shop until they want to go public.

話雖如此，我認為本季實際交易量下降了 20%。所以你可能擁有更聰明的錢，可能更少的錢，但交易數量正在下降。正如道格所說，我認為賣家變得更加挑剔了。我確實認為，當你看看一些現在已經到了上市時間的匯總公司所發生的事情時，我不會提及任何名字，你知道他們是誰，好吧，讓我們看看情況如何。這不是一件容易的事，我認為賣家也看到了這一點。順便說一句，加入那些將要改變的人是很容易的，在他們想要上市之前，你的商店裡什麼都沒有。

Better, I think, as Doug said, and joined me that everybody from the family to you all as investors, you have the same stack. Now one other comment on this. When we do an acquisition, we give the opportunity for everybody in that acquisition from that point on to participate in this equity. We've got an employee stock purchase plan, we have an LTIP program for management and senior producers. We've got all kinds of ways for people to participate in our success and our growth. You sell to the PE people, the owners do great, PE investors hopefully do great, and that’s it baby. Well, I like our model.

更好的是，我認為，正如道格所說，並加入我，每個人，從家庭到你們所有的投資者，你們都有相同的籌碼。現在還有另一位對此發表評論。當我們進行收購時，我們會為收購中的每個人提供參與該股權的機會。我們有員工股票購買計劃，我們有針對管理層和高級生產者的 LTIP 計劃。我們有各種方式讓人們參與我們的成功和成長。你把產品賣給私募股權人士，所有者表現出色，私募股權投資者也希望表現出色，這就是寶貝。嗯，我喜歡我們的模型。

Awesome. Thank you, guys.

驚人的。感謝你們。

Grace Carter, Bank of America.

格蕾絲·卡特，美國銀行。

Hi everyone. I wanted to start on the risk management guidance. I think you all mentioned maybe around 9% for the year. I think that the prior guide was maybe 9% to 11%. Could you go over maybe anything that's changed since we last spoke in June? Thanks.

大家好。我想從風險管理指南開始。我想你們都提到了今年大概是 9% 左右。我認為之前的指導可能是 9% 到 11%。您能否回顧一下自我們上次六月交談以來發生的任何變化？謝謝。

I think the degree of difference on a full-year on -- listen, we're talking about a couple of million dollars on the difference between the 9% and 10%, so I wouldn't say that it's made $5 million. So there's nothing that's just -- we think that we've got better insight for the rest of the year and so that range is coming maybe to the lower end of it than the upper end of it.

我認為全年的差異程度——聽著，我們談論的是 9% 和 10% 之間的差異數百萬美元，所以我不會說它賺了 500 萬美元。因此，沒有什麼是 - 我們認為我們對今年剩餘時間有了更好的洞察力，因此該範圍可能會達到其下限，而不是上限。

Thank you. And also on the brokerage organic growth guide, I think that you all had mentioned you are considering narrowing it maybe to 7.5% to 8.5% at the Investor Day. Just keeping it at a wider range of 7% to 9%, does that just reflect uncertainty in the environment or has anything changed since then or am I just reading too much into it entirely?

謝謝。另外，關於券商有機成長指南，我想你們都提到過，你們正在考慮在投資者日將其縮小到 7.5% 至 8.5%。只是將其保持在 7% 到 9% 的更大範圍內，這是否只是反映了環境的不確定性，或者自那時以來發生了什麼變化，或者我只是對它的解讀太多了？

Maybe the latter. I think it's been four weeks since we talked to you. We just finally got one more data point, and that's the close of June. So we'll talk to you again in September. And either way, listen, anywhere in that range. Look at that, that's 7% to 9% growth on top of 9% last year, 9% before. When you go back in 2019, we grew 6% all in, anywhere in that range is a terrific year. And if we can repeat it again next year, it's another terrific year.

也許是後者。我想自從我們和你談話以來已經過了四個星期了。我們終於又得到了一個數據點，那是六月末的事。所以我們將在九月再次與您交談。不管怎樣，在這個範圍內的任何地方都可以聽。看看這個，比去年 9%、之前的 9% 成長了 7% 到 9%。當你回顧 2019 年時，我們的整體成長率為 6%，無論在這個範圍內都是了不起的一年。如果我們明年能再次重複這一點，那又是很棒的一年。

Cool. Thank you.

涼爽的。謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶·希爾茲，KBW。

Thanks. Two quick ones, I think. First, I was hopefully, we won't need to know this, but give us a sense as to the contingent commissions exposure to hurricane season?

謝謝。我想，兩個很快的。首先，我希望我們不需要知道這一點，但讓我們了解颶風季節的意外佣金？

No, it's very small.

不，它非常小。

Very small. Most of that hurricane exposed business, especially in Florida, is in the excess and surplus, Meyer, we're the largest excess and surplus broker, I think, in the state. A lot of that is -- all that’s in the E&S markets and none of those are subject to contingents.

很小。大部分遭受颶風影響的業務，尤其是在佛羅裡達州，都是超額和盈餘業務，邁耶，我認為我們是該州最大的超額和盈餘經紀人。其中許多都是 E&S 市場中的所有內容，而且這些內容都不受偶然因素的影響。

Okay, perfect. That is good news. Second question, just looking for a brief overview of your appetite for additional acquisitions in personal lines, I guess, both within high net worth and beyond that?

好的，完美。這是個好消息。第二個問題，我想，只是想簡單概述一下您對個人業務的額外收購的興趣，無論是在高淨值範圍內還是在高淨值範圍之外？

Well, you're talking about personal line just being a pure auto writer, that's probably not what we're going to do. We're not great at it, we're an adviser. So if somebody is going to use us to use our advice to help them buy their insurance, that's the business of what we'd like to be in.

好吧，你所說的個人路線只是作為一個純粹的汽車作家，這可能不是我們要做的。我們並不擅長，我們只是顧問。因此，如果有人要利用我們的建議來幫助他們購買保險，這就是我們想要從事的業務。

High net worth on, we do a terrific job of it. I'm telling you our folks are some of the very best in the business, and that's an important spot right now. There's planes, there's boats, there's houses on sand bars, there's -- how is on views that have landslide risk, high net worth needs an adviser probably as much as any complex mid-market commercial client. Just going on and trying to buy an auto writer -- auto is probably not what we're looking to do. If it's going to be one of those things that it takes advice will be there in that space.

在高淨值方面，我們做得非常好。我告訴你，我們的員工是業界最優秀的人才，這是目前的重要職位。有飛機，有船，有沙洲上的房屋，還有 - 具有山體滑坡風險的景觀如何，高淨值人士可能與任何復雜的中端市場商業客戶一樣需要顧問。只是繼續嘗試購買一個汽車作家——汽車可能不是我們想要做的。如果這將成為需要建議的事情之一，那麼該領域就會有建議。

We're actually very excited about (technical difficulty). I think it's, a Doug said, a real opportunity for us.

我們實際上對（技術難度）感到非常興奮。道格說，我認為這對我們來說是一個真正的機會。

(technical difficulty) Just go ahead, we'll help you out with it.

（技術難度）儘管來吧，我們會幫助您解決的。

I've got a ping pong table. That's about it. (laughter)

我有一張乒乓球桌。就是這樣。 （笑聲）

Well, there's a slip and fall on that one coming.

好吧，那個人即將滑倒。

I think that's our last comment. So just our last question, let me make just a few comments on the way out here. Thank you, again, very much all of you for joining us. I know it's a little late, and thanks to all of our Gallagher colleagues around the world for their hard work and their dedication. These quarters don't just happen.

我想這是我們最後的評論。所以，就我們的最後一個問題，讓我對離開這裡的方式發表一些評論。再次非常感謝大家加入我們。我知道現在有點晚了，感謝世界各地所有加拉格爾同事的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。這些季度並不是憑空發生的。

Thanks to your efforts, that means our people we're in a really enviable position. Our net new business is up, our M&A pipeline is growing. I'm proud of the year-to-date financial performance. And as you can tell, I'm bullish on 2024 and beyond. So 40 years, 16% TSR, compound average annual growth rate, pretty good 40 years. I'm looking forward to the next 40. Thanks for being with us.

感謝你們的努力，這意味著我們的員工處於令人羨慕的地位。我們的淨新業務正在增加，我們的併購管道也在成長。我對今年迄今為止的財務表現感到自豪。如你所知，我看好 2024 年及以後的前景。所以40年，股東總回報率為16%，年複合成長率，相當不錯的40年。我期待著下一個 40。

That does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。