Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

下午好。歡迎來到 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的電話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meanings of the securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在本次電話會議期間發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到可能導致實際結果大不相同的風險和不確定性的影響。

Please refer to the cautionary statement and risk factors contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on its forward-looking statements. In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call, as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

有關其前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱公司 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中的警示性聲明和風險因素。此外，有關本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則措施的對賬以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益發布和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Chairman, President and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在，我很高興向大家介紹 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 J. Patrick Gallagher。加拉格爾先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2022 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO; as well as the heads of our operating divisions. Before I get to my comments about our financial results, I'd like to acknowledge the damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Ian.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的首席財務官 Doug Howell；以及我們運營部門的負責人。在我對我們的財務業績發表評論之前，我想承認颶風伊恩造成的破壞和破壞。

Our professionals are working diligently to help our clients sort through their coverages, file claims and ultimately get losses paid. At the same time, many of our own colleagues are doing the same for themselves. Our hearts go out to all of those impacted by the storm. In the aftermath of events such as Ian, the insurance industry's role and response is paramount to help families, businesses and communities restore their lives.

我們的專業人員正在努力幫助我們的客戶整理他們的保險範圍、提出索賠並最終獲得賠償。與此同時，我們自己的許多同事也在為自己做同樣的事情。我們的心與所有受風暴影響的人同在。在伊恩等事件發生後，保險業的作用和應對措施對於幫助家庭、企業和社區恢復生活至關重要。

I'm really honored to be part of an industry with such important responsibility. Okay, on to my comments regarding our third quarter financial performance. For our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 15% growth in revenue, 8.4% organic growth, net earnings growth of 12%, adjusted EBITDAC growth of 15%, and we completed or signed 7 mergers in the quarter totaling about $60 million of annualized revenues.

我真的很榮幸能成為一個肩負如此重要責任的行業的一員。好的，關於我對第三季度財務業績的評論。對於我們合併的經紀和風險管理部門，我們公佈收入增長 15%，有機增長 8.4%，淨收益增長 12%，調整後 EBITDAC 增長 15%，我們在本季度完成或簽署了 7 次合併，總額約為 6000 萬美元的年化收入。

Another fantastic quarter by our team. Let me give you some more detail on our third quarter performance, starting with our Brokerage segment. During the quarter, reported revenue growth was 16%. Of that, 7.8% was organic. That's right in line with our September IR Day expectation, when we previewed there would be about a full point of headwind related to timing from a tough '21 comparison within our benefits business.

我們團隊又一個精彩的季度。讓我給你一些關於我們第三季度業績的更多細節，從我們的經紀部門開始。在本季度，報告的收入增長為 16%。其中，7.8% 是有機的。這與我們 9 月的 IR Day 預期相符，當時我們預測，在我們的福利業務中，與 21 年艱難比較的時間安排有關的逆風點將是一個完整的點。

Acquisition rollover revenues were $162 million. Net earnings growth was 11%, and we posted adjusted EBITDAC margins of 32.3%, a bit better than our IR Day guidance. Another excellent quarter for our brokerage team. Focusing on brokerage segment organic, it continues to be broad-based by both business and geography.

收購展期收入為 1.62 億美元。淨收益增長 11%，我們公佈調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 32.3%，略好於我們的 IR Day 指引。對於我們的經紀團隊來說，又是一個出色的季度。專注於有機經紀業務，它繼續在業務和地域方面具有廣泛的基礎。

Let me walk you around the world and provide some more detailed commentary, starting with our P/C operations. Our U.S. retail business posted 9% organic, with strong new business and solid client retention both consistent with last year's third quarter.

讓我帶您環遊世界並提供一些更詳細的評論，從我們的 P/C 業務開始。我們的美國零售業務有機增長 9%，新業務強勁，客戶保留率與去年第三季度一致。

Risk Placement Services, our U.S. wholesale operations, also posted organic of 9%. This includes more than 20% organic in open brokerage and about 5% organic in our MGA programs and binding businesses. New business was strong at more than 27% of prior year revenue, and retention was consistent with last year's third quarter.

我們在美國的批發業務風險安置服務也公佈了 9% 的有機增長。這包括開放經紀業務中超過 20% 的有機業務以及我們的 MGA 計劃和綁定業務中約 5% 的有機業務。新業務強勁，佔上年收入的 27% 以上，留存率與去年第三季度一致。

Shifting outside the U.S. Our U.K. businesses posted organic of 15% with excellent new business production and retention. Australia and New Zealand combined organic was 9%. New business production remained very strong and retention improved relative to last year's third quarter.

轉移到美國以外我們的英國業務實現了 15% 的有機增長，並具有出色的新業務生產和保留率。澳大利亞和新西蘭合併有機率為 9%。與去年第三季度相比，新業務生產仍然非常強勁，留存率有所提高。

Canada was up 13% organically and continues to benefit from renewal premium increases, robust new business and consistent retention. Moving to our Employee Benefit Brokerage and Consulting business. As I mentioned earlier, as we signaled last quarter and again at our September IR Day, our benefits business faced a tough organic comparison this quarter.

加拿大有機增長 13%，並繼續受益於續保保費增加、強勁的新業務和持續的保留。轉到我們的員工福利經紀和諮詢業務。正如我之前提到的，正如我們在上個季度和 9 月的 IR 日再次發出的信號，我們的福利業務在本季度面臨著艱難的有機比較。

Recall that due to last year's upward development in covered lives, as employers resumed hiring coming out of the depths of the pandemic. Leveling for that, our benefits business organic was about 3%. That's consistent with our IR Day expectations and includes strong growth within our HR benefits consulting units and solid growth in our international businesses.

回想一下，由於去年受保人壽的增長，隨著雇主在大流行的深淵中恢復招聘。為此，我們的業務有機收益約為 3%。這與我們的 IR Day 預期一致，包括我們的人力資源福利諮詢部門的強勁增長和我們國際業務的穩健增長。

And before I conclude my organic comments, let me give you a quick update on our December '21 reinsurance acquisition. Third quarter revenues were right in line with our expectations, and while not included in our Brokerage segment organic yet, after controlling for breakage prior to closing, organic was around 8%. That's just outstanding.

在我結束我的有機評論之前，讓我給你一個關於我們 21 年 12 月再保險收購的快速更新。第三季度收入符合我們的預期，雖然還沒有包括在我們的經紀業務部門的有機收入中，但在關閉前控制了破損後，有機收入約為 8%。這簡直太棒了。

With expected revenues and EBITDAC for full year unchanged, reinsurance continues to be a fantastic story. So headline Brokerage segment all in organic of 7.8% and around 9% after controlling for the benefits comparison, either way an outstanding organic quarter.

由於全年的預期收入和 EBITDAC 不變，再保險仍然是一個精彩的故事。因此，在控制收益比較後，整體經紀業務的有機增長率為 7.8% 和 9% 左右，無論哪種方式都是一個出色的有機季度。

Next, let me give you some thoughts on our current PC market environment, starting in the primary insurance market. Overall, global third quarter renewal premiums, that's both rate and exposure combined, were up 10.5%. That's a bit higher than renewal premium change in the first half of '22.

接下來，讓我從初級保險市場開始，談談我們當前的 PC 市場環境。總體而言，全球第三季度續保保費（包括費率和風險敞口）增長了 10.5%。這比 22 年上半年的續訂保費變化要高一些。

As for rate, most lines of business and geographies saw increases in third quarter similar to the first half, with only one exception being D&O, where rates are now closer to flat, but our customers are buying more limits. Additionally, our customers' third quarter business activity was not reflective of any economic slowdown.

至於費率，大多數業務線和地區在第三季度的增長與上半年相似，只有一個例外是 D&O，其費率現在接近持平，但我們的客戶正在購買更多限制。此外，我們客戶的第三季度業務活動並未反映任何經濟放緩。

In fact, revenue related to third quarter midterm policy endorsements, audits and cancellations combined were above third quarter '21 levels. Looking ahead, thus far in October midterm policy endorsements and audit adjustments remain higher than last year's level, and renewal premium increases are also consistent with the third quarter.

事實上，與第三季度中期政策背書、審計和取消相關的收入總和高於 21 年第三季度的水平。展望未來，到目前為止，10 月份中期保單背書和審計調整仍高於去年水平，續保保費增幅也與第三季度一致。

But remember, our job is to help our clients mitigate that overall 10% increase in premiums by developing creative risk management solutions that fit their budgets. Let me move to the reinsurance market. Let me provide you with some broad observations regarding the upcoming '23 and reinsurance renewal season.

但請記住，我們的工作是通過開發符合其預算的創造性風險管理解決方案，幫助我們的客戶減輕 10% 的整體保費增長。讓我轉向再保險市場。讓我為您提供一些關於即將到來的 '23 和再保險續保季節的廣泛觀察。

First, there is no question that rates, terms and conditions will vary depending on geography, individual [seed] and loss history, risk characteristics and line of business. Second, pricing on peak zone property catastrophe cover is moving higher.

首先，毫無疑問，費率、條款和條件會因地理位置、個人 [種子] 和損失歷史、風險特徵和業務線而異。其次，高峰區房地產巨災保險的定價正在走高。

And tightening terms and conditions are highly likely. Third, while we haven't witnessed the impact of Hurricane Ian spill over to nonproperty lines yet, it is possible that, that could happen if there's a broad shift in reinsurance risk appetite and capacity deployment strategies.

收緊條款和條件的可能性很大。第三，雖然我們還沒有目睹伊恩颶風對非財產險業務的影響，但如果再保險風險偏好和能力部署策略發生廣泛轉變，這種情況就有可能發生。

Fourth and finally, the amount of property reinsurance capacity available remains an open question. Some reinsurance providers had already planned to pull back their cat capacity prior to Ian. And now it is likely that a significant level of ILS capital will be trapped into 1/1 renewals, further pressuring potential capacity.

第四也是最後一點，可用的財產再保險能力的數量仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。一些再保險公司已經計劃在 Ian 之前撤回他們的承保能力。現在很可能會有大量的 ILS 資本被困在 1/1 的續約中，進一步給潛在產能帶來壓力。

Ultimately, supply will depend on expected returns from changes in pricing, terms and conditions and perhaps expected returns will reach a level that will attract additional reinsurance capital. While we have yet to see any significant third-party capital enter into the market, given ILS capital can move quickly, there is still time before the January renewal season.

最終，供應將取決於定價、條款和條件變化的預期回報，也許預期回報將達到吸引額外再保險資本的水平。雖然我們還沒有看到任何重要的第三方資本進入市場，但鑑於 ILS 資本可以快速移動，距離 1 月續約季節還有時間。

This will play out over the next 2 months. But at this point, it seems the stage is set for a hard or even harder reinsurance market as we enter the important 1/1 renewal season.

這將在接下來的 2 個月內上演。但在這一點上，隨著我們進入重要的 1/1 續保季節，再保險市場似乎已經為艱難甚至更艱難的市場做好了準備。

Reinsurance conditions will no doubt influence primary markets in 2023, and carriers were already facing rising loss costs in property and casualty lines. We see good reason for our carrier partners to continue to underwrite retail and wholesale risks cautiously for the foreseeable future.

再保險條件無疑將影響 2023 年的主要市場，而承運人已經面臨財產險和意外險險種不斷上升的損失成本。我們認為我們的運營商合作夥伴有充分的理由在可預見的未來繼續謹慎地承保零售和批發風險。

Moving to our Employee Benefit Brokerage and Consulting business. U.S. labor markets' conditions remain tight, but broadly favorable. During August, while U.S. employers reduced job openings by 1 million positions, there are still more than 10 million job openings according to the most recent data.

轉到我們的員工福利經紀和諮詢業務。美國勞動力市場狀況依然緊張，但總體上是有利的。 8 月份，雖然美國雇主減少了 100 萬個職位空缺，但根據最新數據，仍有超過 1000 萬個職位空缺。

And the level of open jobs remains well above the nearly 6 million people unemployed in looking for work as of the end of September. So we see tight U.S. labor market conditions lingering for some time and expect strong demand for our HR and benefits consulting services to continue as businesses prioritize attracting, retaining and motivating their workforce.

截至 9 月底，空缺職位的數量仍遠高於近 600 萬人的失業人數。因此，我們看到緊張的美國勞動力市場狀況將持續一段時間，並預計隨著企業優先考慮吸引、留住和激勵他們的勞動力，對我們的人力資源和福利諮詢服務的強勁需求將繼續存在。

Let me wrap up my Brokerage segment organic comments. With 3 terrific quarters in the books year-to-date brokerage organic growth stands at 9.3%. And as I look to the fourth quarter, I see us posting another quarter above 9% that would deliver a fantastic year.

讓我總結一下我的經紀部分有機評論。今年迄今為止，經紀業務的有機增長達到了 9.3%，其中有 3 個非常棒的季度。當我展望第四季度時，我看到我們發布了另一個高於 9% 的季度，這將是一個美妙的一年。

Moving on to mergers and acquisitions. During the third quarter, we completed 6 new tuck-in brokerage mergers representing about $20 million of estimated annualized revenues. We also signed another merger late in the third quarter, representing an additional $40 million of estimated annualized revenues.

繼續進行併購。在第三季度，我們完成了 6 項新的經紀業務合併，估計年化收入約為 2000 萬美元。我們還在第三季度末簽署了另一項合併協議，預計年收入將增加 4000 萬美元。

I'd like to thank all of our new partners for joining us, and extend a very warm welcome to our growing Gallagher family of professionals. As I look at our tuck-in merger and acquisition pipeline, we have about 50 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing nearly $400 million of annualized revenue.

我要感謝我們所有的新合作夥伴加入我們，並對我們不斷壯大的 Gallagher 專業人士大家庭表示熱烈歡迎。當我查看我們的併購渠道時，我們已經簽署或準備了大約 50 個條款清單，代表了近 4 億美元的年化收入。

We know not all of these will close, however, we believe we'll get our fair share. Next, I'd like to move to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Third quarter organic growth was 12.2%, a strong finish to the quarter, pushed organic a bit higher than our IR day expectation. We also continued to benefit from increases in new arising claims across general liability and core workers' compensation during the quarter.

我們知道並非所有這些都會關閉，但是，我們相信我們會得到公平的份額。接下來，我想轉到我們的風險管理部門 Gallagher Bassett。第三季度有機增長為 12.2%，強勁地完成了該季度，推動有機增長略高於我們的 IR 日預期。我們還繼續受益於本季度一般責任和核心工人賠償的新索賠增加。

That's both on an organic existing client basis and also due to some recent new client wins, including the significant insurance company client we added to our fast-growing insurance carrier practice. And profitability remains excellent. Third quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 18.2%, in line with our expectations.

這既是基於現有的有機客戶，也是由於最近贏得了一些新客戶，包括我們在快速增長的保險公司業務中添加的重要保險公司客戶。盈利能力依然出色。第三季度調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 18.2%，符合我們的預期。

That would have been closer to 19% without the impact from the new large client ramp-up that we spoke about at our September IR meeting. Looking forward for the fourth quarter, we believe organic revenue growth will be about 10% and adjusted EBITDAC margins between 18.5% and 19% that would close out a great year for the Gallagher Bassett team.

如果沒有我們在 9 月 IR 會議上談到的新大客戶增加的影響，那將接近 19%。展望第四季度，我們認為有機收入增長將約為 10%，調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率將在 18.5% 至 19% 之間，這將為 Gallagher Bassett 團隊帶來豐收的一年。

And I'll conclude my remarks with some thoughts on our bedrock culture. October 2 marked Gallagher's 95th anniversary. I took note on that day that our teams were hard at work helping our clients assess damage, file claims and ultimately start the repairing and rebuilding process from Ian.

最後，我將以對我們基石文化的一些想法來結束我的發言。 10 月 2 日是加拉格爾誕辰 95 週年。那天我注意到我們的團隊正在努力幫助我們的客戶評估損壞、提出索賠並最終從 Ian 開始修復和重建過程。

And if not directly assisting individuals and communities impacted, many Gallagher colleagues around the world donated their own money to help those impacted by Ian. What a fitting way for us to silently celebrate this incredible milestone. My grandfather would be proud of the company he founded, the employees that embody the culture he started in the industry in which we toil. It's our people's actions in challenging times that bring our unique Gallagher culture to the forefront, a culture that we believe will thrive for another 95 years. Okay, I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

如果不直接幫助受影響的個人和社區，世界各地的許多加拉格爾同事都捐出自己的錢來幫助受 Ian 影響的人。我們默默地慶祝這個令人難以置信的里程碑是多麼合適的方式。我的祖父會為他創立的公司感到自豪，這些員工體現了他在我們辛勤工作的行業中創立的文化。正是我們員工在充滿挑戰的時代採取的行動將我們獨特的加拉格爾文化帶到了最前沿，我們相信這種文化將再繁榮 95 年。好的，我現在停下來把它交給道格。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll touch on organic and margins using our earnings release. Then I'll move to the CFO commentary document that we post to our website and make some comments on our corporate segment. I'll conclude my prepared remarks with some thoughts on M&A, debt and cash.

謝謝，帕特，大家好。今天，我將使用我們的收益發布來談談有機和利潤率。然後我將轉到我們發佈到我們網站上的 CFO 評論文件，並對我們的公司部門發表一些評論。我將以對併購、債務和現金的一些想法來結束我準備好的發言。

During my comments today, I'll also provide some thoughts on our fourth quarter and some first thinking around how we are seeing 2023 now that we have started our budget process. Okay. Starting with the earnings release in the Brokerage segment organic table on Page 3.

在我今天的評論中，我還將提供一些關於我們第四季度的想法，以及一些關於我們如何看待 2023 年的想法，因為我們已經開始了我們的預算流程。好的。從第 3 頁經紀部門有機表中的收益發布開始。

Headline all-in brokerage organic of 7.8%. That's over 9% when controlling for the tough benefits compare, brings us to a strong 9.3% year-to-date organic growth. When I look at our organic quarter-to-quarter, it's fairly consistent at that 9% range. We boast 9.6% organic in the first quarter, about the same in the second quarter when you exclude that infrequent large life sale we discussed last quarter.

整體經紀業務有機率為 7.8%。在控制嚴峻的收益比較時，這一數字超過 9%，使我們實現了強勁的 9.3% 的年初至今有機增長。當我查看我們的有機季度到季度時，它在 9% 的範圍內相當一致。我們在第一季度擁有 9.6% 的有機銷售額，當您排除我們上季度討論的不常見的大型壽險銷售時，第二季度大致相同。

Now we're at about 9% here in the third quarter when adjusting for the benefits headwind, and it's looking like over 9% in the fourth quarter. That would deliver a full year '22 organic above 9%, a little noisy on the quarters, but very consistent and actually a fantastic performance by our sales team.

現在我們在第三季度調整收益逆風時約為 9%，第四季度看起來超過 9%。這將提供 22 年全年 9% 以上的有機增長率，每個季度都有點嘈雜，但非常一致，實際上我們的銷售團隊的表現非常出色。

As for 2023, early feel is in that 7% to 9% organic range for our Brokerage segment. Next turning to Page 5, to the Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC margin table. Recall, this is a year of quarterly margin change volatility due to the roll-in impact of the acquired reinsurance operations, expenses returning as we come out of the pandemic and the impact of a stronger dollar.

至於 2023 年，我們的經紀業務部門的早期感覺是在 7% 到 9% 的有機範圍內。接下來轉到第 5 頁，轉到經紀業務部門調整後的 EBITDAC 保證金表。回想一下，由於收購的再保險業務的滾動影響，隨著我們走出大流行而返回的費用以及美元走強的影響，今年是季度利潤率變化波動的一年。

Specifically, we've been saying to expect year-over-year margins to be up 50 basis points in first quarter, down 100 in the second quarter, down 125 basis points in the third quarter and up about 125 basis points in the fourth quarter. While that was about right for our third quarter, we posted 32.3%, which was in line with our IR day guidance and we are still comfortable with our fourth quarter outlook of around 125 basis points of margin expansion relative to the FX adjusted fourth quarter '21 EBITDAC margin.

具體來說，我們一直在說預計第一季度的同比利潤率將上升 50 個基點，第二季度下降 100 個基點，第三季度下降 125 個基點，第四季度上升約 125 個基點.雖然這對我們的第三季度來說是正確的，但我們公佈了 32.3%，這與我們的投資者關係日指引一致，我們仍然對第四季度的利潤率預期感到滿意，即相對於外匯調整後的第四季度而言，利潤率增長約為 125 個基點。 21 EBITDAC 利潤率。

That would suggest a fourth quarter margin of around 32% at today's FX rates. In the end, since early '22, we've been targeting around 10 to 20 basis points of full year '22 margin expansion. And we're on track to deliver that.

這意味著以今天的匯率計算，第四季度的利潤率約為 32%。最後，自 22 年初以來，我們的目標是 22 年全年利潤率擴張大約 10 到 20 個基點。我們正在實現這一目標。

More importantly, that would mean we improved margins around 570 basis points since 2019. As we look ahead to '23, we continue to expect margin expansion next year starting around 4% or better organic growth, call it maybe 50 basis points at 6%.

更重要的是，這意味著我們自 2019 年以來將利潤率提高了約 570 個基點。展望 23 年，我們繼續預計明年利潤率將增長約 4% 或更好的有機增長，稱其為 50 個基點至 6% .

Moving on to the Risk Management segment on Pages 5 and 6. As Pat said, 12.2% organic and 18.2% adjusted margins, both pretty close to our September IR Day expectations. And looking forward, we see these excellent results continuing in the fourth quarter. Organic growth -- revenue growth of about 10% and margins in the mid- to upper 18% range.

繼續第 5 頁和第 6 頁的風險管理部分。正如 Pat 所說，12.2% 的有機利潤率和 18.2% 的調整後利潤率，都非常接近我們 9 月投資者關係日的預期。展望未來，我們將在第四季度看到這些出色的業績。有機增長——收入增長約 10%，利潤率在 18% 的中高區間。

That would mean full year organic growth of about 12% and full year margins around 18.5%. Looking to '23, we will see the roll in of the new large carrier client, and we have already had a nice new business win in Australia that will incept in midyear.

這意味著全年有機增長約為 12%，全年利潤率約為 18.5%。展望 23 年，我們將看到新的大型運營商客戶的加入，我們已經在澳大利亞取得了不錯的新業務勝利，該業務將於年中開始。

Add continued strong new business production, combined with continued growth in newer rising claims, we see organic at least in the high single digits and margins around 19% in '23. All right, let's shift now to the CFO commentary document.

加上持續強勁的新業務生產，再加上新增加的索賠的持續增長，我們認為 23 年的有機利潤率至少在高個位數和 19% 左右。好的，現在讓我們轉到 CFO 評論文件。

Starting with Page 3, which shows our typical brokerage and risk management modeling helpers. A few things to highlight. First, the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar since our September IR Day. Please take a look at our updated FX guidance for the fourth quarter of '22.

從第 3 頁開始，它展示了我們典型的經紀和風險管理建模助手。有幾點要強調。首先，自 9 月投資者關係日以來美元持續走強。請查看我們更新的 22 年第四季度外匯指南。

As for 2023, perhaps the best start is just to assume what we are projecting for full year '22 repeats in '23, but most of that will be seen in the first half. Second, you'll see our current estimate for fourth quarter integration costs, most of all of this relates to the reinsurance acquisition.

至於 2023 年，也許最好的開始只是假設我們對 23 年全年 22 年重複的預測，但其中大部分將在上半年看到。其次，您將看到我們目前對第四季度整合成本的估計，其中大部分與再保險收購有關。

The team is making really excellent progress on this and is executing at a faster pace than our original plan. It was terrific to see our new reinsurance colleagues located with our other brokerage operations when I was in London a couple of weeks ago.

團隊在這方面取得了非常好的進展，並且執行速度比我們最初的計劃更快。幾週前我在倫敦時，看到我們新的再保險同事與我們的其他經紀業務一起工作真是太棒了。

As for technology and system rebuilds, we still see being done by the end of '23 or early '24. Turning to the Corporate segment on Page 4. Relative to our September outlook, interest in banking, clean energy and M&A costs after adjusting for the large transaction-related expenses, those 3 lines total to about the midpoint of our outlook.

至於技術和系統重建，我們仍然看到在 23 年底或 24 年初完成。轉向第 4 頁的企業部分。相對於我們 9 月份的展望，在調整大筆交易相關費用後對銀行、清潔能源和併購成本的興趣，這 3 條線總計約為我們展望的中點。

Within the corporate line, most of the upside was due to some favorable tax items and a favorable FX remeasurement gain. Looking towards the fourth quarter, moving down that page, only one significant change to our outlook. As you'll see in the fourth quarter corporate line and read in Footnote 7 on that Page 4, here in October, we settled litigation resulting in Gallagher receiving $55 million in cash.

在公司產品線中，大部分上漲是由於一些有利的稅收項目和有利的外匯重估收益。展望第四季度，向下移動該頁面，我們的前景只有一個重大變化。正如您將在第四季度的公司業務中看到的那樣，並在第 4 頁的腳註 7 中看到，在 10 月份，我們解決了導致加拉格爾收到 5500 萬美元現金的訴訟。

Net of litigation costs and taxes, we will record a gain of approximately $35 million, and you'll see a few lines down that we'll adjust that gain out of our GAAP results. As for the cash proceeds, which because of our tax credits is actually closer to $40 million, we'll put that to good work over the next couple of years to fund incremental production hires and make incremental investments in technology.

扣除訴訟成本和稅金後，我們將錄得約 3500 萬美元的收益，您會看到下面幾行，我們將從我們的 GAAP 結果中調整該收益。至於現金收益，由於我們的稅收抵免實際上接近 4000 萬美元，我們將在未來幾年內將其投入使用，以資助增加的生產招聘並增加對技術的投資。

I'll break down our thinking a little more during our December IR day. Moving now to Page 5, Clean Energy. This page should be familiar to everyone by now. It highlights that we have close to $1 billion of tax credit carryforwards.

在 12 月的 IR 日期間，我將進一步分解我們的想法。現在轉到第 5 頁，清潔能源。這個頁面現在應該為大家所熟悉。它強調我們有近 10 億美元的稅收抵免結轉。

The pinkish column shows that we expect to harvest $125 million to $150 million of cash flows here in '22, and the peach column shows that we could be even greater in '23 and beyond. And as a reminder, that would come through our cash flow statement, not our P&L. Turning to Page 6. The top of the page is the rollover revenue table.

粉紅色的柱子顯示我們預計在 22 年在這裡收穫 1.25 億美元到 1.5 億美元的現金流，桃色柱子顯示我們在 23 年及以後可能會更大。提醒一下，這將來自我們的現金流量表，而不是我們的損益表。轉到第 6 頁。頁面頂部是展期收入表。

Third quarter revenues of $162 million, that's right in line with our expectations 6 weeks ago. Shifting to the lower half of the page, this table is an update on our December '21 reinsurance acquisition. Third quarter revenue of $120 million is consistent with our September IR Day estimate.

第三季度收入為 1.62 億美元，符合我們 6 週前的預期。轉到頁面的下半部分，此表是我們對 21 年 12 月再保險收購的更新。第三季度 1.2 億美元的收入與我們 9 月 IR Day 的估計一致。

As for EBITDAC, a tightening difference between third and fourth quarter. Punchline is full year revenue and EBITDAC should come in very close to our purchase pro forma. That's a really terrific story and great credit to the team. Okay, as to cash and capital management and future M&A.

至於EBITDAC，第三季度和第四季度之間的差距正在收緊。 Punchline 是全年收入，EBITDAC 應該非常接近我們的採購預估值。這是一個非常棒的故事，也是團隊的一大功勞。好的，關於現金和資本管理以及未來的併購。

At September 30, available cash on hand was about $500 million, and we've been saying that we might have around $4 billion of M&A capacity in '22 and '23 combined without using stock. That still seems about right to us today. Okay. Those are my comments. Another fantastic quarter and 9 months is in the books, another strong outlook for the fourth quarter, and it's looking like we're well positioned for a terrific year in 2023. Back to you, Pat.

截至 9 月 30 日，手頭可用現金約為 5 億美元，我們一直在說，在不使用股票的情況下，我們可能在 22 年和 23 年合併擁有約 40 億美元的併購能力。這在我們今天看來仍然是正確的。好的。這些是我的評論。另一個美妙的季度和 9 個月在賬面上，第四季度的另一個強勁前景，看起來我們已經為 2023 年的一個了不起的一年做好了準備。回到你身邊，帕特。

Thanks, Doug. Operator, if you would, let's open it up for questions, please.

謝謝，道格。接線員，如果你願意，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from Weston Bloomer with UBS.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Weston Bloomer。

The first one is on the 7% to 9% organic growth that you're expecting next year. I was hoping you could kind of expand on what sort of environment you're expecting next year in terms of a potential recession? And then if you can hit that target in a recessionary environment? And then -- maybe just comment on the magnitude of growth you're seeing across maybe P&C operations versus wholesale or international? Just trying to get a sense of how you're getting to that 7% to 9% more granularly.

第一個是你預計明年的 7% 到 9% 的有機增長。我希望你能擴展一下你對明年潛在衰退的預期是什麼樣的環境？然後，如果你能在經濟衰退的環境中達到這個目標？然後——也許只是評論一下您看到的 P&C 業務與批發或國際業務的增長幅度？只是想了解如何更精細地達到 7% 到 9%。

Weston, let me take the recession question. Doug can take a look at the numbers across. I think we did a pretty good job of laying out those numbers by division a moment ago. And I think we said we thought they'd be pretty consistent next year. So I think if you look at our prepared remarks, you got that question answered.

韋斯頓，讓我來談談經濟衰退的問題。道格可以看看對面的數字。我認為我們剛才在按部門排列這些數字方面做得很好。我想我們說過我們認為他們明年會非常一致。所以我想如果你看看我們準備好的評論，你就會回答這個問題。

But the recession one is an interesting one, because one of the reasons in our prepared remarks we talk about what's going on with endorsements is we can daily look at that information to see what's going on in the underlying business of our clients. We can also look at renewal exposure units as they're being put through to the market for renewal.

但是經濟衰退是一個有趣的問題，因為在我們準備好的評論中我們談論代言發生了什麼的原因之一是我們可以每天查看這些信息以了解我們客戶的基礎業務發生了什麼。我們還可以查看更新曝光單元，因為它們正被推向市場進行更新。

And as you know, when you renew a client, you have to estimate sales and payrolls going forward. So clients are pretty smart in not wanting to basically overpay and then wait for a return of that premium in an audit, 18 months or 15 months after the close of the year.

如您所知，當您續訂客戶時，您必須估計未來的銷售額和工資單。因此，客戶非常聰明，不想基本上多付，然後在年底後的 18 個月或 15 個月的審計中等待該溢價的回報。

So it's a bit of a ying and yang between the broker, the underwriter and the client as we look at what are those payrolls that we should be providing. We're not seeing a big decrease in sales and payrolls. Renewals are going out the door with perception of their business being okay.

因此，當我們查看我們應該提供哪些工資單時，經紀人、承銷商和客戶之間的關係有點微妙。我們沒有看到銷售額和工資單大幅下降。續約正在走出門外，因為他們認為他們的業務還可以。

And that's verified by the midterm audits and endorsements that we're seeing. So -- I read the Wall Street Journal every day. I read the left-hand column yesterday, the world just came to an end, I just didn't know it.

我們看到的中期審計和認可證實了這一點。所以——我每天都閱讀《華爾街日報》。昨天看了左邊的專欄，世界剛剛走到盡頭，我只是不知道而已。

Well, listen, I think the way we look at it this way, is that we're not seeing it in our underlying business today. And we're also viewing, if there is a recession in '23 we see that being more like what happened in the early -- in the 1991 -- '90-'91 period, in the 2000, 2001 period, more of a normal soft landing recession.

好吧，聽著，我認為我們這樣看待它的方式是，我們今天沒有在我們的基礎業務中看到它。而且我們也在觀察，如果 23 年出現衰退，我們會看到這更像是在早期 - 在 1991 年 - '90-'91 時期，在 2000 年、2001 年時期，更多的是正常的軟著陸衰退。

We do not see a recession next year like the subprime financial shock of '08 and -- sub '07 and '08 or the pandemic recession that we saw for a few months in '20. Those normal recessions typically last about 2 or 3 quarters. And when we go back to the best we can do to get data back then, we actually performed very well during those light recessions.

我們認為明年不會出現像 08 年次貸金融衝擊和 07 年和 08 年次貸危機或我們在 20 年幾個月看到的大流行性衰退那樣的衰退。那些正常的衰退通常會持續大約 2 或 3 個季度。當我們回到我們能做的最好的時候來獲取數據時，我們實際上在那些輕微的衰退期間表現得非常好。

In this case, I think that next year, if there is -- if anything happens, and we do go into recession, I think it's going to drive excess demand more than it is to contract supply, and we ensure supply. So in our contemplation for next year is a lot like this year, exposure units holding stable, rates going up like we're seeing this year.

在這種情況下，我認為明年，如果有 - 如果發生任何事情，並且我們確實陷入衰退，我認為這將推動需求過剩，而不是收縮供應，我們確保供應。因此，在我們對明年的考慮中，與今年非常相似，敞口單位保持穩定，利率上升，就像我們今年看到的那樣。

But I see -- I don't see a lot of change all of a sudden on 1/1 that the world has changed dramatically from what it's been for the last 3 to 6 months, right now. So that's our go-in case. That's how we're preparing our budgets in that range. So that's how we came up with that 7% to 9%.

但我看到 - 我沒有看到 1/1 突然之間發生很大變化，世界從過去 3 到 6 個月的情況發生了巨大變化，現在。所以這是我們的入門案例。這就是我們在該範圍內準備預算的方式。這就是我們提出 7% 到 9% 的方法。

But we'll give you more of a reflection on that in December.

但我們會在 12 月給你更多的反思。

Got it. And just one follow-up there. Is kind of like a high single, low double-digit growth for reinsurance brokerage kind of the right range as well? And can you remind us how much of that business is more property versus long tail binds?

知道了。那裡只有一個後續行動。再保險經紀業務的高個位數、低兩位數增長是否也是正確的範圍？你能提醒我們，與長尾綁定相比，這項業務有多少是更多的財產？

Yes. All right. So yes, in answer to your question, we see reinsurance in that high single-digit range next year. Right now, the best -- remember, you got a lot of treaties that are multi-line. But right now, the best we can tell is pure property is 28%. You put in the package on that, I'd say it might be closer to 40% of the book of business. And then you look at some of our kind of high-risk casualty lines, maybe you've got a book that's -- 60% of it is facing a kind of a tough renewal season.

是的。好的。所以，是的，在回答你的問題時，我們看到明年再保險在這個高個位數範圍內。現在，最好的——記住，你有很多多行的條約。但現在，我們能說的最好的是純財產是 28%。你把它放在包裝上，我會說它可能接近商業賬簿的 40%。然後你看看我們的一些高風險傷亡線，也許你有一本書——其中 60% 的書正面臨著一個艱難的續訂季節。

Great. And then just one more. On the commentary around 50 bps of margin based on 6% organic, does that contemplate a potential pickup in discretionary spending inflation may be offset by higher fiduciary income? Or is that just core expansion net of any items?

偉大的。然後只有一個。關於基於 6% 有機利率的大約 50 個基點的利潤率的評論，這是否考慮到可自由支配支出通脹的潛在回升可能會被更高的信託收入所抵消？或者這只是任何項目的核心擴展網？

Yes. I think for 2023, and again, I'll give you some more here in December, there will be an upside from investment income. That -- not all of that will hit the bottom line because there could be some incremental inflation that we see in some of our numbers.

是的。我認為對於 2023 年，我會在 12 月再給你一些信息，投資收入會有上漲空間。那 - 並非所有這些都會觸及底線，因為我們在某些數據中可能會看到一些增量通脹。

Remember, about 80% of our business we don't believe has significant exposure to headline inflation. And like we said last at our IR Day or on an earlier call, about 20% of our expenses, they do have some inflation pressures on it. But in our opinion, there will be clearly an upside to that thinking as a result of incremental investment income next year. But I still need to work through that math over the next couple of months.

請記住，我們認為大約 80% 的業務不會受到總體通脹的影響。就像我們在 IR 日或早些時候的電話會議上所說的那樣，我們大約 20% 的開支，他們確實有一些通脹壓力。但在我們看來，由於明年投資收入的增加，這種想法顯然會有好處。但在接下來的幾個月裡，我仍然需要解決這個數學問題。

Our next question is from Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mike Zaremski。

Just a follow-up on the investment income levels. And are you so -- is the guidance you provided kind of inclusive of using the current level of interest rates or the curve? Does that make sense?

只是對投資收益水平的跟進。你是這樣 - 你提供的指導是否包含使用當前的利率水平或曲線？那有意義嗎？

You're talking about for '23?

你說的是23年？

Yes, '23. Sorry, Doug.

是的，23 年。對不起，道格。

Yes. I think that when we look at 6% organic growth with possibly 50 basis points of margin expansion, that does not include a possible upside from incremental investment income, but yet -- but not all that incremental investment income will likely hit the EBITDA line. It could go to some inflationary pressures on some of our cost base or it could go to some discretionary spends, but it would be upside to that 6 points, 50 basis points outlook.

是的。我認為，當我們看到 6% 的有機增長和可能 50 個基點的利潤率擴張時，這還不包括增量投資收入可能帶來的上行空間，但是——但並非所有增量投資收入都可能達到 EBITDA 線。它可能會對我們的一些成本基礎產生一些通脹壓力，也可能會導致一些可自由支配的支出，但這將比 6 個點、50 個基點的前景帶來上行空間。

Okay. Understood. Kind of switching gears a little bit. Just curious, you're not calling out any kind of potential impacts to contingents or stops as a result of the hurricane. I know the new accounting rules came into place a few years ago. Is there anything we should be contemplating that could impact Gallagher in the year to come or maybe even kind of into programs business, if there's a lack of capacity? Just trying to -- one of your peers kind of surprised us a little bit. So just trying to see if there's anything there worth talking about.

好的。明白了。有點切換齒輪。只是好奇，您並沒有指出颶風對特遣隊或停靠站的任何潛在影響。我知道新的會計規則是幾年前實施的。如果能力不足，我們是否應該考慮什麼可能會在未來一年影響加拉格爾，甚至可能會影響到項目業務？只是想 - 你的一位同行讓我們有點驚訝。所以只是想看看有沒有什麼值得談論的。

Our outlook on the impact of Ian to our contingent commissions is $465,000 of impact against our revenues. That has all been fully booked in the numbers that you see here today. We do not believe that would develop differently than that. We just are not that -- we're just not exposed to contingent commissions on property placements in our book of business.

我們對伊恩對我們或有佣金的影響的展望是對我們的收入產生 465,000 美元的影響。您今天在這裡看到的數字已經全部預訂完畢。我們不相信這會比這有不同的發展。我們只是不是那樣 - 我們只是沒有在我們的業務書中接觸到房地產配售的或有佣金。

Okay. Great. And maybe lastly, any change in the competitive environment on the M&A side, given there's kind of now a consensus that interest rates may stay higher for longer? Or is it still just very competitive?

好的。偉大的。也許最後，併購方面的競爭環境是否有任何變化，因為現在有一種共識，即利率可能會在更長時間內保持較高水平？還是它仍然非常有競爭力？

No, it's still very, very competitive. And there's a lot of interest out there in our industry still. We're watching that very carefully to see if some of that falls off. You'll see some write-ups recently about the number of deals done coming down a bit. I don't know if that's an early sign that maybe some of the people want to sit on the sideline a bit. But for the deals that we're after right now, the competition is very strong.

不，它仍然非常非常有競爭力。我們的行業仍然有很多興趣。我們正在非常仔細地觀察，看看是否有一些脫落。您最近會看到一些關於完成的交易數量有所下降的報導。我不知道這是否是一個早期跡象，也許有些人想坐在場邊。但是對於我們現在追求的交易，競爭非常激烈。

So multiples, I was trying to -- I should have been clear. So you don't expect multiples to move south and you're not seeing that?

所以倍數，我試圖 - 我應該很清楚。所以你不期望倍數向南移動而你沒有看到嗎？

I hope they do, but we're not yet.

我希望他們這樣做，但我們還沒有。

Our next question is from Greg Peters with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Greg Peters 和 Raymond James。

So I wanted to go back, Pat, to your comments about the reinsurance market and the reinsurance business and sort of unpack what's going on and get your perspectives, because it really feels like we're at a seminal moment in that marketplace where we could be in a hard market, especially for cat-exposed property, but it seems like it's bleeding over into other lines.

因此，帕特，我想回到您對再保險市場和再保險業務的評論，並解開正在發生的事情並了解您的觀點，因為這真的感覺我們正處於那個市場的開創性時刻，我們可以處於艱難的市場中，特別是對於貓暴露的財產，但似乎它正在流入其他領域。

And -- so the reinsurers haven't been able to get an adequate return on their business. And then now the primary companies are going to be asked to take higher retentions and absolutely pay more on rate online. So I guess my question is, if these 2 partners of yours are getting pressure, profitability pressure, do you foresee a scenario where you actually might get some pressure on commission rates as the market evolves here?

而且——所以再保險公司無法從他們的業務中獲得足夠的回報。然後現在主要公司將被要求採取更高的保留率並絕對支付更多的在線費率。所以我想我的問題是，如果您的這兩個合作夥伴受到壓力，盈利壓力，您是否預見到隨著市場的發展，您實際上可能會在佣金率上受到一些壓力？

No, I don't think so, Greg. I think it's clear that we earn our money. And that's -- you see that in the market. I mean, it's -- the business has been very stable. I've had a chance to meet with a number of managements. They know exactly every dollar that we're making. There is no hidden factor here anywhere. And we have to do the work that justifies that income level every single day.

不，我不這麼認為，格雷格。我認為很明顯，我們賺錢。那就是 - 你在市場上看到了這一點。我的意思是，它的業務一直非常穩定。我有機會與許多管理層會面。他們確切地知道我們賺的每一美元。這裡任何地方都沒有隱藏的因素。我們每天都必須做證明收入水平合理的工作。

Now in my experience as a retailer, I'm not a reinsurance person, but a hard market makes you incredibly more valuable. In a soft market in the retail business, some person with a shingle out (technical difficulty) they'll get a quote and beat you. When you're sitting with someone in a hard market, you are talking strategy, man.

現在，根據我作為零售商的經驗，我不是再保險人，但硬市場會讓你變得非常有價值。在零售業疲軟的市場中，有些人有問題（技術困難），他們會得到報價並擊敗你。當你在艱難的市場中與某人坐在一起時，你就是在談論策略，伙計。

You are not talking about what's going to happen to my comp premium. You're talking about, am I going to get GL cover. And that's going right down to personal lines. I've got tons of friends, as you can imagine, in South Florida. Am I going to get homeowners next year? I don't know.

你不是在談論我的補償費會發生什麼。你在說，我會得到 GL 掩護嗎？這直接涉及個人線路。你可以想像，我在南佛羅里達有很多朋友。明年我會買房主嗎？我不知道。

I mean, I think you will, but you're going to pay more and they know it. Now that, I think, trusted adviser works its way all the way back to reinsurance, and this is not a time when these carriers are going to put a lot of emphasis on how much we get paid when they're looking at trying to get returns literally on hundreds of millions of dollars of writings.

我的意思是，我想你會的，但你會付出更多，他們知道。現在，我認為，值得信賴的顧問一直在努力回到再保險，而現在不是這些運營商在試圖獲得報酬時非常重視我們得到多少報酬的時候。從字面上返回數億美元的著作。

Yes, Greg, I will say this. It's been 20 years since I've been CFO of insurance companies, but right now, this is a time where my reinsurance brokers would be the most important people to have in my office with their skills, their capabilities, and this is a time where they really earn their money.

是的，格雷格，我會這麼說。我擔任保險公司首席財務官已經 20 年了，但現在，我的再保險經紀人將憑藉他們的技能和能力成為我辦公室中最重要的人，這是一個他們真的賺錢。

Fair enough. I'm sure it's -- there's a robust conversation happening around all of this stuff. So I wanted to also -- and I know you've commented on this before, but I wanted to pivot and talk about the brokerage business and the pipeline, if we're in a recession, if we go in a recession, blah, blah, blah, it's pretty strong.

很公平。我敢肯定，圍繞所有這些東西進行了激烈的對話。所以我也想 - 我知道你之前對此發表過評論，但我想轉向並談論經紀業務和管道，如果我們處於衰退，如果我們陷入衰退，等等，嗚嗚嗚，太強了

Can you remind us again just when -- on the risk management piece, how you think that might perform if we go into a soft landing? What kind of -- and I know you've commented on this before, Pat, but just give us some sort of guideposts that we should be thinking about on that.

你能否再次提醒我們——在風險管理方面，如果我們進入軟著陸，你認為這會如何表現？什麼樣的——我知道你之前已經對此發表過評論，Pat，但請給我們一些我們應該考慮的指南。

Well, I mean -- first of all, Greg, as you know, when prices are going up, one of the skills that brought us to the point we are today is the capability of taking people who are -- should be self-insuring into that market, and showing them how to take higher retentions and bringing Gallagher Bassett in.

好吧，我的意思是——首先，格雷格，如你所知，當價格上漲時，使我們達到今天這一點的技能之一就是能夠接納那些——應該是自我保險的人進入該市場，並向他們展示如何獲得更高的保留率並將加拉格爾巴塞特帶入。

Recessionary work has the same -- now I'm talking about the larger upper middle market. The recession has the same kind of impact, especially if you get a recession while at the same time pricing is going up. They're looking for alternatives.

經濟衰退的工作也是如此——現在我說的是更大的中上層市場。經濟衰退具有同樣的影響，特別是如果你在經濟衰退的同時價格上漲。他們正在尋找替代品。

And when I say your alternative is to pay tomorrow instead of today and to really manage your claims hard and work at hard at preventing them, there's a lot better listeners than when the prices are dropping, and that's going right to their bottom line and they're private companies and they're happy as a clam. When you get to the larger accounts, these are very sophisticated buyers.

當我說你的選擇是明天而不是今天付款並真正努力管理你的索賠並努力防止它們發生時，有比價格下跌時更好的聽眾，而這正是他們的底線，他們'是私人公司，他們很高興。當你接觸到更大的客戶時，這些都是非常老練的買家。

And they don't move around based on recessions. Now if there is a recession and our larger clients have a lesser population, they close down shifts, then you'll see claim counts drop. But I don't think you're going to see an impact on that business that happens in the short term, and we'll know well in advance of any kind of a downturn. AS people start slowing their business down and cutting shifts, we'll be well aware of it.

他們不會因經濟衰退而四處走動。現在，如果出現經濟衰退並且我們較大的客戶人口較少，他們會關閉輪班，那麼您會看到索賠數量下降。但我認為您不會在短期內看到對該業務的影響，而且我們會提前知道任何類型的低迷。隨著人們開始放慢他們的業務並減少輪班，我們會很清楚這一點。

We can probably comment better as we go into the new quarters. We're just not seeing that right now, Greg. I think that's the interesting thing to me. As I said, I read the Journal every day, and I'm sitting there and I go, okay. And then we test and test and test, and our primary business partners are doing really well. Then you look at the GB results and claim counts are up. They're not down.

當我們進入新的季度時，我們可能會發表更好的評論。格雷格，我們現在還沒有看到。我認為這對我來說很有趣。正如我所說，我每天都閱讀《華爾街日報》，我就坐在那裡，然後我就走了，好吧。然後我們測試、測試和測試，我們的主要業務合作夥伴做得非常好。然後您查看 GB 結果，索賠數量增加了。他們沒有倒下。

So it's -- I get why you're questioning it. I really do get the conundrum. But here's the thing. Doug pointed out that in other recessions we've done well. Clients do not jump in and out of self-insurance. You make that decision to move to taking a big retention and paying your claims.

所以它 - 我明白你為什麼質疑它。我真的明白這個難題。但事情就是這樣。道格指出，在其他經濟衰退中，我們做得很好。客戶不會跳進跳出自我保險。您做出決定，以採取大量保留並支付您的索賠。

You may have a -- you may see your claim counts go down because hours worked are less, but you're not jumping in and out of that market. It's a pretty good place to be.

你可能有一個——你可能會看到你的索賠數量下降，因為工作時間減少了，但你並沒有進出那個市場。這是一個相當不錯的地方。

Got it. And I read the Journal too. It does seem like the end of the world is imminent, but you guys are posting good results. So congratulations.

知道了。我也讀了《華爾街日報》。世界末日似乎迫在眉睫，但你們正在發布良好的結果。那麼恭喜。

Our next question is from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, I'm going to head in the opposite direction of talking about a recession. I want to go to the flip side and talk about how good, I guess, 2023 could be. Greg said 6% to 9% organic in September. Today, you're saying 7% to 9% for next year. But we could have a really strong reinsurance market, and it sounds like you have really good exposure on the wholesale side where the market is really firming.

我的第一個問題，我將朝著談論衰退的相反方向前進。我想談談另一面，我想，2023 年會有多好。格雷格說 9 月份有機率為 6% 至 9%。今天，你說的是明年的 7% 到 9%。但我們可以擁有一個非常強大的再保險市場，聽起來你在市場真正走強的批發方面擁有非常好的風險敞口。

So at 80% of your revenue is commission based. So could there be an environment next year where pricing is so firm that Gallagher could print double-digit organic revenue growth?

因此，您 80% 的收入是基於佣金的。那麼明年是否會出現定價如此堅定以至於加拉格爾可以實現兩位數的有機收入增長的環境？

Well, from your lips to God's ears, Elyse. If you take a look back at our results in other hard markets, yes, that could happen. I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say no. If capacity dries up, smaller brokers in those environments can't get the job done, reinsurance clearly is -- and look at trapped capital in the ILS market, depending on whether capacity is there or whether capacity comes in, yes, I think you could see a very bullish -- you could write a bullish story.

嗯，從你的嘴唇到上帝的耳朵，愛麗絲。如果您回顧一下我們在其他硬市場的結果，是的，這可能會發生。我的意思是，我不會坐在這裡說不。如果產能枯竭，這些環境中的小型經紀人無法完成工作，再保險顯然是 - 看看 ILS 市場中被困的資本，取決於產能是否存在或產能是否進入，是的，我認為你可以看到一個非常看漲的 - 你可以寫一個看漲的故事。

And then assuming, right, Doug, you said at 6% organic, we could see 50 basis points of margin improvement. So assuming that the base is 7%, right, and it sounds like it could be better than that, so is the base case that we'll see something -- margin improvement that's above that 50 basis point level next year?

然後假設，對，Doug，你說有機率為 6%，我們可以看到利潤率提高 50 個基點。因此，假設基數為 7%，對，聽起來可能比這更好，那麼我們將看到的基本情況是什麼——明年利潤率提高超過 50 個基點的水平？

I think that -- it's not linear. If we posted 9%, I don't think you'd have 150 basis points of margin expansion, but you might have 75 to a point, something like that. But I think that -- let us get through this and get through our December, look at our budgets. And some of this is discretionary spending that we might want to make in investing in technologies and other organic growth strategies. But yes, I mean, there is a case that, that could happen.

我認為這不是線性的。如果我們公佈 9%，我認為您不會有 150 個基點的利潤率擴張，但您可能會有 75 個基點，類似這樣。但我認為——讓我們度過難關，度過我們的 12 月，看看我們的預算。其中一些是我們可能希望用於投資技術和其他有機增長戰略的可自由支配支出。但是，是的，我的意思是，有一種情況可能會發生。

And then on the M&A side, right, you guys obviously have a good amount of capital flexibility over the next couple of years. It does seem, maybe it's because you guys have had such a strong track record of M&A, right? Deal flow has been a little light relative to historical levels this year.

然後在併購方面，對，你們顯然在接下來的幾年裡有很大的資本靈活性。看起來，也許是因為你們在併購方面有著如此出色的記錄，對吧？與今年的歷史水平相比，交易量略顯清淡。

So I know the pipeline is still strong. At what point do you reach that level? Will you consider buying back your shares? Or is it something where deals just ebb and flow depending upon time of year and you guys will give it some time and then maybe consider buybacks?

所以我知道管道仍然很強大。你在什麼時候達到那個水平？你會考慮回購你的股票嗎？還是交易只是根據一年中的時間而起起落落，你們會給它一些時間，然後可能會考慮回購？

Well, listen, if we ended up with excess capital, our first metric would be is to make sure that we maintain a solid investment grade rating on our borrowings. With interest rates going up, that's more and more important every day.

好吧，聽著，如果我們最終擁有多餘的資本，我們的第一個指標是確保我們對借款保持穩健的投資級評級。隨著利率上升，這一點每天都變得越來越重要。

Second of all, I think that our M&A pipeline is still robust. And the third thing is, remember the arbitrage that we get on the multiples. And more importantly, we're building out the team. We bring more people on our side of the field to go out and compete on every day and create more organic afterwards.

其次，我認為我們的併購渠道仍然強勁。第三件事是，記住我們在倍數上獲得的套利。更重要的是，我們正在組建團隊。我們每天都會讓更多的人站在我們這一邊，出去參加比賽，然後創造更多的有機。

So for us, buying back stock is certainly what we can do. It's certainly part of the math, and it's part of the story. But I'd like to see us doing more and more M&A every day to put our cash to work at multiples that are -- that deliver arbitrage value to our shareholders. So we're out there, we're looking very hard. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. But I think we've got a ton of opportunities in our pipeline right now.

所以對我們來說，回購股票當然是我們能做的。這當然是數學的一部分，也是故事的一部分。但我希望看到我們每天進行越來越多的併購，以使我們的現金以倍數發揮作用——為我們的股東帶來套利價值。所以我們在外面，我們非常努力地尋找。有時你贏了，有時你輸了。但我認為我們現在有很多機會在我們的管道中。

Given the strength of the U.S. dollar, are you guys seeing more opportunities for international deals?

鑑於美元的強勢，你們是否看到了更多的國際交易機會？

Well, listen, we've got some pretty good pipelines going on, especially in Canada, Australia and the U.K. right now. So we'd be happy to continue to look at those acquisitions there. And yes, the dollar does have a little bit of an impact on that, but it's not what drives our investment choices.

好吧，聽著，我們有一些非常好的管道正在進行中，尤其是現在在加拿大、澳大利亞和英國。因此，我們很樂意繼續關注那裡的這些收購。是的，美元確實對此有一點影響，但這並不是我們投資選擇的驅動因素。

Our next question is from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

My first question is on headcount. I noticed there was a nice pickup in headcount, and the one I'm referring to specifically is in Brokerage. I think it's up 7% year-to-date. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what that is going into, what type of roles you're hiring?

我的第一個問題是關於人數。我注意到員工人數有了不錯的增長，而我特別指的是經紀業務。我認為今年迄今上漲了 7%。您能否談談即將發生的事情，您正在招聘什麼類型的角色？

And secondly, I'm actually -- I was very impressed to see that the comp and benefit ratio is actually coming in year-over-year despite the increase in headcount. So is there a catch-up that we should expect? Or how are you keeping that number down?

其次，我實際上 - 儘管員工人數有所增加，但看到薪酬和福利比率實際上同比增長，我印象深刻。那麼我們應該期待追趕嗎？或者你是如何保持這個數字的？

All right. So a couple of things -- you've got a couple of things to unpack there. First, let's talk about the increase in the headcount. We have actually substantially increased our headcount in our offshore centers of excellence.

好的。所以有幾件事——你有幾件事要在那裡解開。首先，讓我們談談員工人數的增加。實際上，我們已經大大增加了離岸卓越中心的員工人數。

As you know, we've been talking about it for 15 years now. We think that, that's a terrific spot to improve the quality of the offer -- of our insurance offerings. And as a result, we're ramping up significantly more in offshore right now that can do that work for us.

如您所知，我們已經討論了 15 年。我們認為，這是提高產品質量的好地方——我們的保險產品。因此，我們現在正在海上大幅增加可以為我們完成這項工作的能力。

And that -- so we're up considerably in that. So that's what's driving the metric you're seeing, is mostly offshore resources there. When it comes to the opportunity -- the drop in the comp ratio this quarter, some of that has to do with bonus timing.

那 - 所以我們在這方面有很大的進步。所以這就是推動你看到的指標的原因，主要是那裡的離岸資源。談到機會——本季度薪酬比率的下降，其中一些與獎金時機有關。

If you recall last quarter, I said we were a little ahead on our bonus accruals. So we didn't have to post quite as much this quarter, which probably offset some of the -- we did have a little bit of inflation in our raise pool. Maybe we gave away another $8 million this year, something like that in that -- in the raise pool this year. What's offsetting that is the timing of the bonus.

如果你還記得上個季度，我說我們的獎金應計有點領先。因此，本季度我們不必發布那麼多，這可能抵消了一些——我們的籌款池中確實有一點通貨膨脹。也許我們今年又捐出了 800 萬美元，類似的東西——在今年的籌款池中。什麼抵消了獎金的時間。

Got it. And I'm curious what led to the increase in the organic growth estimate for '23, at least the bottom end of the range from 6% to 7%? What changed in the last 6 weeks?

知道了。我很好奇是什麼導致了 23 年有機增長估計的增加，至少是從 6% 到 7% 的範圍的底部？過去 6 週發生了什麼變化？

Well, listen, I think that Ian has brought a different tone in the marketplace. I think you're seeing some reports of reserve strengthening across lines. You saw the reinsurance outlook we've talked about -- and remember, the reason why we got the 6% to 9% is we were saying that '23 felt somewhere between 2019 and 2022, and '19 happen to be 6% organic growth. So the context of the comment in September was relative to 2 different years. And now as we're getting closer on our budget process and really looking at what we're starting to see in the renewal pipeline, we thought we could tighten that range up a little bit.

好吧，聽著，我認為伊恩給市場帶來了不同的基調。我認為你看到了一些關於儲備加強的報告。你看到了我們討論過的再保險前景——記住，我們得到 6% 到 9% 的原因是我們說 23 年感覺介於 2019 年和 2022 年之間，而 19 年恰好是 6% 的有機增長.因此，9 月評論的背景是相對於 2 個不同的年份。現在，隨著我們越來越接近我們的預算流程並真正關注我們開始在更新管道中看到的內容，我們認為我們可以稍微收緊這個範圍。

Also, Yaron, I think that before Ian, it was clear that loss costs and verdicts and what have you were putting pressure on our carriers. Today, we look across the losses on the cat level and wonder if they're not going to bleed into the casualty lines. And I've had some conversations with some of our reinsurance pros who think that, that's a very good possibility. If that happens, that will be -- that will benefit from that as well.

另外，Yaron，我認為在 Ian 之前，很明顯，損失成本和判決以及您對我們的運營商施加的壓力是什麼。今天，我們回顧了貓級別的損失，想知道他們是否不會流血到傷亡線。我與我們的一些再保險專業人士進行了一些對話，他們認為這是一個很好的可能性。如果發生這種情況，那也將受益。

Got it. Maybe 1 last one, and following up on Greg's question. I guess, in what markets, what kind of environments do you typically see some pressure on commission rates or maybe clients trying to shift over to fees?

知道了。也許最後一個，並跟進格雷格的問題。我想，在哪些市場、什麼樣的環境中，您通常會看到佣金率受到壓力，或者客戶可能會試圖轉向收費？

Primarily in the retail market, as accounts go from being, say, upper middle, middle market, where typically, you'll have about 85% to 90% of your clients. By the way, we're 100% transparent. This is their choice. We have an adult conversation. They know we collect contingents.

主要是在零售市場，因為賬戶從上中、中端市場轉變，通常情況下，您將擁有大約 85% 到 90% 的客戶。順便說一句，我們是 100% 透明的。這是他們的選擇。我們進行了成人對話。他們知道我們收集特遣隊。

Let's not go back to 2004 and get me all in trouble again for accepting contingents and supplementals. They're all disclosed. This is client choice. And so as they get a little bigger, if they bring in a risk manager, that type of thing, then there's usually a shift to fee and we're happy with that.

讓我們不要回到 2004 年，讓我再次因為接受特遣隊和補充而陷入麻煩。他們都被披露了。這是客戶的選擇。因此，當他們變得更大時，如果他們引入了風險經理之類的東西，那麼通常會轉向收費，我們對此感到滿意。

Our next question is from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Just had a question on the investment income side, the fiduciary income. Could you just quantify how much that generated this quarter? I think you've said in the past it's $40 million for every 100 basis points move in short-term rates.

剛剛有一個關於投資收益方面的問題，即信託收益。您能否量化一下本季度產生了多少？我想你過去說過，短期利率每波動 100 個基點，就會產生 4000 萬美元。

But just wanted to -- just to double check what the benefit was to revenues this quarter. And then maybe just talk about how that impacted margins. How much of it fell to the bottom line?

但只是想 - 只是為了仔細檢查本季度對收入的好處。然後也許只是談談這如何影響利潤率。有多少跌到了底線？

Okay. I'll take that in a couple of different bites, all right? This quarter is, let's call it $12.5 million that we had as additional investment income as a result of rate changes. Then you're asking how much of that fell to the bottom line. Maybe a better way for me to do this is to take a look at what does it mean for full year.

好的。我會分幾口吃，好嗎？本季度，我們稱其為 1250 萬美元，作為利率變化導致的額外投資收入。然後你問有多少下降到了底線。也許對我來說更好的方法是看看全年意味著什麼。

If you recall at the beginning of the year, what we said is, since -- when we were sitting in January, we had looked back and we had said that we had posted about 550 basis points of margin expansion. And when we looked out -- and that was over 2 years.

如果您還記得年初時，我們所說的是，自從 - 當我們在一月份坐下來時，我們回顧並說過我們已經公佈了大約 550 個基點的利潤率擴張。當我們向外看時 - 那是兩年多。

Then we said if we look forward -- again, I'm standing in January of 2022 -- we said that we might be able to get margin expansion of 10 to 20 basis points on organic of about 8% here in '22. So what's happened since that -- those expectations, right? We're still looking at 10 to 20 basis points of margin expansion.

然後我們說，如果我們展望未來——再次，我站在 2022 年 1 月——我們說我們可能能夠在 22 年實現約 8% 的有機利潤率擴張 10 到 20 個基點。那麼從那以後發生了什麼——那些期望，對吧？我們仍在關注 10 到 20 個基點的利潤率擴張。

But organic is running a point better and, let's say, investment income between this year that might be up, let's say, $30 million more of investment income in the year. So that's about $80 million more of revenues this year. And so the way I look at it is, where did that go? Where did the $80 million of revenue go?

但是有機的表現更好，比如說，今年之間的投資收入可能會增加，比如說，今年的投資收入增加了 3000 萬美元。因此，今年的收入增加了約 8000 萬美元。所以我看待它的方式是，它去哪兒了？ 8000萬美元的收入去哪兒了？

Well, first of all, we dropped 1/3 -- we're going to drop 1/3 of that to the bottom line, right? So that leaves $50 million to $53 million of additional revenues. Well, we have to pay our producers, field leadership and support staff. Usually, that runs about 45% of the revenue on that organic of $50 million, call that $23 million. So now we're down to explaining where did $30 million go as a result of incremental organic and incremental investment income, again relative to our outlook at the beginning of the year.

嗯，首先，我們下降了 1/3——我們將把其中的 1/3 下降到底線，對吧？因此，剩下 5000 萬至 5300 萬美元的額外收入。好吧，我們必須支付我們的生產商、現場領導和支持人員的費用。通常，這佔 5000 萬美元有機收入的 45%，稱為 2300 萬美元。因此，現在我們要解釋由於增加的有機和增加的投資收入而導致的 3000 萬美元去了哪裡，這再次與我們年初的展望有關。

Well, I can tell you that we spent about $10 million on incremental hiring, some incremental raises and some incremental incentive comp this year. Maybe it's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. And we also know that we -- about $10 million went to incremental travel and entertainment expense.

好吧，我可以告訴你，今年我們在增量招聘、一些增量加薪和一些增量激勵上花費了大約 1000 萬美元。也許是 1/3、1/3、1/3。而且我們也知道我們 - 大約 1000 萬美元用於增加旅行和娛樂費用。

Now that's mostly due to inflation, and it's not due to increased trips versus our expectation. Again, all this is against our expectation at the beginning of the year. And then finally, we spent an extra $10 million on IT betterment projects than probably we would have expected at the beginning of the year, because we have the bandwidth in order to implement those projects.

現在這主要是由於通貨膨脹，而不是由於旅行增加而不是我們的預期。同樣，這一切都出乎我們年初的預期。最後，我們在 IT 改進項目上花費了 1000 萬美元，這超出了我們在年初的預期，因為我們有足夠的帶寬來實施這些項目。

So for me, sitting here relative to our expectations at the beginning of the year, I think it's a really terrific outcome. And what I'm really proud of is the team has done a great job this year. They have been disciplined in their travel and they've been selected (sic) [selective] in their value-added efforts that they're bringing to their clients.

所以對我來說，相對於我們在年初的期望坐在這裡，我認為這是一個非常了不起的結果。我真正引以為豪的是球隊今年做得很好。他們在旅行中受到紀律處分，並且在為客戶帶來的增值努力中被選中（原文如此）[選擇性]。

And they've been pretty wise about other IT investments. And yet to still deliver 10 to 20 basis points of margin expansion this year in an inflationary environment on top of the 550 that we had delivered in the previous 2 years, I think it's a pretty darn good year, in my opinion.

他們對其他 IT 投資非常明智。在通脹環境中，在我們過去兩年交付的 550 個基點之上，今年仍然實現 10 到 20 個基點的利潤率擴張，我認為這是一個非常好的一年，在我看來。

So relative to expectation, that's a long-winded answer -- but I think it gives you a perspective on incremental investment income and incremental organic relative to where we were sitting at the beginning of the year. And remember, we still -- at the beginning of the year, we had the Omicron crisis going on, and we were still in the depths of the pandemic. So we still have dug our way out of those pandemic expenses returning along the way. So a long story, long answer, but I hope it gets you to where you need to go.

因此，相對於預期，這是一個冗長的答案——但我認為它讓你對相對於我們年初所處的增量投資收入和增量有機有一個看法。請記住，我們仍然 - 在今年年初，我們經歷了 Omicron 危機，我們仍處於大流行的深處。因此，我們仍然從沿途返回的那些大流行費用中挖出一條路。所以一個長故事，長答案，但我希望它能讓你到達你需要去的地方。

Yes, that definitely did. That's really helpful. I guess maybe just switching gears to the reinsurance deal and how that's been going. The organic, I think, accelerated a point to 8% this quarter from 7% in 2Q. I guess at high single digits in '23 feels maybe a little conservative.

是的，確實如此。這真的很有幫助。我想也許只是將齒輪轉向再保險交易以及情況如何。我認為，本季度的有機增長從第二季度的 7% 加速至 8%。我猜 23 年的高個位數感覺可能有點保守。

But maybe could you just talk about the range of outcomes around that high single digit? And I guess what's stopping it from being well above that, just given the market that you're -- [first of all] is experiencing -- you guys are experiencing there?

但也許你能談談圍繞那個高個位數的結果範圍嗎？而且我想是什麼阻止了它遠高於這個水平，只是考慮到你正在經歷的市場——[首先]正在經歷——你們正在經歷那裡？

You're dealing with the most sophisticated buyers in the market. And as Doug just said a minute ago, when he is buying reinsurance, he wasn't messing around worrying about what the guy or gal was getting paid. The point is, this is talking at the essence of their capital, the returns, how they're going to balance out the demand, you've got a supply and demand imbalance that's looking like it's coming down the path at being very substantial.

您正在與市場上最成熟的買家打交道。正如道格在一分鐘前所說的那樣，當他購買再保險時，他並沒有在擔心這個男人或女孩得到什麼報酬。關鍵是，這是在談論他們資本的本質，回報，他們將如何平衡需求，你的供需失衡看起來正在變得非常嚴重。

They want to be good players. They want to take advantage of it. They want to make sure that they get good returns. And it's those good returns that ultimately hopefully bring in more capacity. But these buyers are very sophisticated.

他們想成為優秀的球員。他們想利用它。他們希望確保獲得良好的回報。正是這些良好的回報最終有望帶來更多的產能。但這些買家非常老練。

They'll pay us more money. I mean, the question earlier on was, are they going to keep paying us what they're used to paying us. And they'll pay us more money, but it's not -- this is not a linear progression. I get down into the BOT policies and into the lower middle market, it's linear.

他們會付給我們更多的錢。我的意思是，之前的問題是，他們是否會繼續向我們支付他們過去支付給我們的費用。他們會付給我們更多的錢，但事實並非如此——這不是線性進展。我深入了解 BOT 政策和中低端市場，它是線性的。

Price is up 10%. We're going to help the client reduce that by moving deductibles around, dropping umbrella limits, et cetera. But by and large, policy by policy, we're going to get that commission. That's not the case in reinsurance.

價格上漲了 10%。我們將通過移動免賠額、降低保護傘限制等來幫助客戶減少這種情況。但總的來說，一個接一個的政策，我們會得到那個佣金。再保險的情況並非如此。

Yes. I think it's a little bit of a -- I wouldn't say it's a symmetrical bell curve, but around 8% -- I thought -- 6% to 10% on that. So maybe it's 2 points on either side of it, and that would probably favors the bull case on that more than the bear case on it.

是的。我認為它有點——我不會說它是對稱的鐘形曲線，但大約 8%——我認為——6% 到 10%。因此，也許它的兩邊各有 2 分，這可能比看跌的情況更有利於牛市的情況。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just 1 more. You mentioned that you don't expect a recession. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer here, but if there is one like there was in the early '90s or early 2000s, have you guys given any thoughts on what organic growth would be in that type of scenario?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許只有1個。你提到你預計不會出現衰退。我不想在這裡成為黛比·唐納，但如果有像 90 年代初或 2000 年代初那樣的人，你們有沒有想過在這種情況下會有什麼有機增長？

I think Doug did a very good job, earlier did, of taking it back in time. I mean, go back and take -- our results are public now back to '84. I think we do extremely well in good times and bad times. Certainly, recessions are not good for brokers.

我認為道格做得非常好，早先做到了，及時將其收回。我的意思是，回去拿——我們的結果現在可以追溯到 84 年了。我認為我們在好的時候和壞的時候都做得非常好。當然，經濟衰退對經紀人不利。

Sales and payrolls are what drive our premiums. So there's no question that if sales and payrolls go down, we'll feel the impact of that. Having said that, people get more interested in listening to us talk to them about how our professionalism, our capabilities in our niches and what have you, can help them deal with this. The local broker is who takes the hit.

銷售和工資是推動我們保費的因素。因此，毫無疑問，如果銷售額和工資下降，我們會感受到這種影響。話雖如此，人們更願意聽我們與他們談論我們的專業精神、我們在利基市場的能力以及你有什麼，可以幫助他們處理這個問題。當地經紀人是受到打擊的人。

Yes. I would say, listen, if we get into a recession that you wanted to refer to as you being a downer on it, that type of recession, we're still in an inflating rate environment, and we're not seeing a slowdown on that.

是的。我會說，聽著，如果我們陷入你想稱之為的衰退，因為你對它感到沮喪，那種類型的衰退，我們仍然處於通貨膨脹的環境中，而且我們沒有看到經濟放緩那。

When it comes to the contraction of exposure units, I'm not seeing trucks just come out of the fleet. They may not be running quite as much, and I know there's a mileage adjustment on it, but I'm not completely convinced that the stuff that we insure will just all of a sudden evaporate next year.

當談到曝光單位的收縮時，我並沒有看到卡車剛剛從車隊中出來。他們可能不會跑那麼多，而且我知道有一個里程調整，但我並不完全相信我們保險的東西明年會突然消失。

Might have to -- they may take different covers on it. They may take some additional deductibles. When you're also looking at an environment, if you get into a recession, that will help us on our employee retentions because they will stay with a good company versus jumping for a new opportunity.

可能必須——他們可能會採取不同的措施。他們可能需要一些額外的免賠額。當您還考慮環境時，如果您陷入衰退，這將有助於我們留住員工，因為他們將留在一家好公司而不是跳槽尋找新機會。

So when those 3 or 4 things collide, rate increases, stable workforce, a flight to quality and what people are looking for in terms of their broker, I see us performing very well in that environment. If you want me to pick a number in there, if we have a downer I'd be hard pressed to see how it would be less than 5% organic growth.

因此，當這 3 或 4 件事發生衝突時，利率增加、穩定的勞動力、追求質量以及人們對經紀人的期望，我認為我們在那種環境中表現得非常好。如果你想讓我在其中選擇一個數字，如果我們有一個令人沮喪的數字，我很難看出它會如何低於 5% 的有機增長。

Our next question is from Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Rob Cox。

I just had one question. I noticed open brokerage accelerated to 20% versus 15% last quarter. And I was just hoping you could talk about what inflected quarter-over-quarter and how you see open brokerage and the E&S market broadly trending from here?

我只有一個問題。我注意到開放經紀業務從上一季度的 15% 加速到 20%。我只是希望你能談談季度環比變化的因素，以及你如何看待開放經紀業務和 E&S 市場從這裡開始的廣泛趨勢？

The E&S market is on fire. And I think you're seeing more premiums move there, freedom of rate, freedom of form, clients' need cover, everything from small accounts to large accounts. That's why you're seeing so much interest in terms of people investing in that market.

E&S市場火了。而且我認為你會看到更多的保費轉移到那裡，利率自由，形式自由，客戶需求保障，從小賬戶到大賬戶的一切。這就是為什麼人們對投資該市場的人如此感興趣的原因。

That -- the primary markets, quite honestly, are not as flexible as the E&S markets, and able to move at the pace that they can move, and they are in a tough market sucking business out of the primaries. Did that answer your question, Rob?

那——老實說，初級市場不像 E&S 市場那樣靈活，並且能夠以它們可以移動的速度移動，而且它們處於一個艱難的市場中，將業務從初級市場中吸走。這回答了你的問題嗎，羅布？

Yes. Very helpful.

是的。非常有幫助。

Our next question is from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

Pat, you talked about the potential spillover to nonproperty lines from the hardness of the reinsurance market. Have you seen that in the past? I just wonder how much influence the cat property business is going to have on some of the other casualty lines, but I hear what you're saying. Just sort of curious to hear more about it.

Pat，您談到了再保險市場的僵化對非財產險的潛在溢出效應。你以前見過嗎？我只是想知道貓財產業務將對其他一些傷亡線產生多大影響，但我聽到了你的意思。只是有點想知道更多關於它的信息。

Let me caution because I've been a retailer my whole life. But for the last year, I've had a chance to spend a good bit of time with our reinsurance folks and do anything I can to learn that business, and I've talked about this at length in the last quarter. And it has happened in the past.

讓我小心，因為我一生都是零售商。但在去年，我有機會與我們的再保險人員共度良多時間，並儘我所能了解該業務，我在上個季度詳細討論了這一點。它已經發生在過去。

I can't give you dates, times and amounts or percents. But -- yes, when you have a capital situation where you need to increase the pricing and you can add cat loads on other lines of coverage, you'll do that when you have to. Now again, I can't say to you that this is exactly what Travelers or [Hyper] did in this year given this situation or what have you.

我不能給你日期、時間和金額或百分比。但是 - 是的，當您遇到需要提高定價的資本情況並且您可以在其他保險範圍內添加貓負載時，您會在必要時這樣做。再說一次，我不能對你說這正是 Travelers 或 [Hyper] 在這種情況下或你所擁有的情況下今年所做的。

I can't take you back to Andrew or something like that, or even Katrina. But what the team is telling me is that it's very likely, given the dearth of our capacity and the need -- because of the supply and demand imbalance -- the need for more rate, that their other lines are selling that are likely to take in advance as well. And sorry that I'm not more specific about that. I'm learning along with you.

我不能帶你回到安德魯或類似的地方，甚至卡特里娜颶風。但是團隊告訴我的是，考慮到我們的產能不足和需求——由於供需不平衡——需要更高的費率，他們的其他生產線很可能會出售也提前。抱歉，我對此沒有更具體。我和你一起學習。

No. No, interesting. And then any shading -- you talk about the economy is still looking good in terms of exposure units and endorsements. Any differentiation you see between larger accounts, middle market, smaller accounts?

不，不，有趣。然後是任何陰影——你談論的經濟在曝光單位和代言方面仍然看起來不錯。您看到大客戶、中間市場、小客戶之間有什麼區別嗎？

No. And that's the thing that's -- I keep referring to the Wall Street Journal, sorry, but I mean I read it and I sit there and I go, okay, and then I come back and I talk to our data people and they're like, no, I'm not seeing it. I can't -- I also can't break it and say, well, construction is in the tank and retail is going through the roof, or trucking is really hurting now and something else -- so -- and we've checked things like our marine business.

不，就是這樣——我一直在指《華爾街日報》，對不起，但我的意思是我讀了它，我坐在那裡，然後我走了，好吧，然後我回來和我們的數據人員交談，他們'就像，不，我沒有看到它。我不能——我也不能打破它然後說，嗯，建築在罐子裡，零售業正在衝破屋頂，或者卡車運輸現在真的很痛苦，還有其他的——所以——我們已經檢查過了比如我們的海運業務。

What's happening with cargo, cargo seems to be holding up and if there's any decrease in cargo, then cruise ships are, I mean, going through the roof. So it's kind of a -- it's a weird time based on what we read and what we see in our -- and these are not anecdotal stories. These are hard data points that I've got, and I can get them every day. And broad, geographic, solid, continued business growth is what we're seeing. Could it fall off a cliff? I guess. We're just not seeing it.

貨物發生了什麼，貨物似乎停滯不前，如果貨物減少，那麼遊輪，我的意思是，正在衝破屋頂。所以這是一個 - 根據我們閱讀的內容和我們看到的內容，這是一個奇怪的時間 - 這些不是軼事。這些是我得到的硬數據點，我每天都能得到它們。我們看到的是廣泛的、地理的、穩固的、持續的業務增長。會不會掉下懸崖？我猜。我們只是沒有看到它。

Our next question is from Josh Shankner (sic) [Shanker] with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shankner (原文如此) [Shanker]。

Yes. Some of the people asked about competition for deals. I just want to talk about debt. And what you think about private equity being one of your competitors, is the marketplace different for them if they have to borrow at higher costs? Is it still debt generally cheap in your mind? And so we're not at the market where that's a consideration. How do you think about their role and their appetite in a higher interest rate environment?

是的。一些人問及交易競爭。我只想談談債務。你認為私募股權是你的競爭對手之一，如果他們不得不以更高的成本借款，市場對他們來說會有所不同嗎？在你的心目中，它仍然是普遍便宜的債務嗎？因此，我們不在考慮這一點的市場上。您如何看待他們在高利率環境中的角色和胃口？

Yes, we kind of signaled that early on. Their appetite is still strong right now. But when you're adding an extra 300 basis points of debt cost into the structure, it does change return expectations. And I think that -- but we're really not competing on price when we come to these deals, Josh, we're really competing on capabilities.

是的，我們很早就發出了信號。他們的胃口現在仍然很強烈。但是，當您在結構中增加 300 個基點的債務成本時，它確實會改變回報預期。而且我認為 - 但是當我們談到這些交易時，我們真的不是在價格上競爭，喬希，我們真的在能力上競爭。

And we win on those every day. If somebody decides our prices aren't dissimilar to what they're offering, they'll maybe be a turn higher, but people just have chosen that they don't want to be in an organization with increased capabilities or resources. So this will cause a compression of pricing by the PEs, it will probably come down to where we're comfortable with pain. And I think we should excel in that then, because now it isn't about price. It's entirely about capabilities.

我們每天都在這些方面獲勝。如果有人認為我們的價格與他們提供的價格沒有什麼不同，他們可能會更高，但人們只是選擇了他們不想加入一個能力或資源增加的組織。因此，這將導致 PE 壓縮定價，這可能會歸結為我們對痛苦感到滿意的地方。我認為那時我們應該在這方面表現出色，因為現在這與價格無關。這完全是關於能力的。

Well, dream with me a little here, Josh. I mean, yes, I think what Doug meant is that our price is similar to our competitors. Yes, multiples over the last 5 years have expanded substantially. Prices are higher for these deals. But money was free.

好吧，喬希，和我一起做個夢吧。我的意思是，是的，我認為道格的意思是我們的價格與我們的競爭對手相似。是的，過去 5 年的倍數大幅增加。這些交易的價格更高。但是錢是免費的。

So now you start paying for that money, and I'm not hoping for a recession, and we don't see one, but show a little slowdown in there. And maybe that annuity isn't as strong as it was before. Our lever is about 2.3x EBITDA. We've got competitors in the market that are happy to be at 9x. I'm sorry, at some point, the music has got to stop and all the chairs aren't going to be full.

所以現在你開始為這筆錢買單，我不希望經濟衰退，我們看不到衰退，但會出現一點放緩。也許年金不像以前那麼強了。我們的槓桿約為 EBITDA 的 2.3 倍。我們市場上的競爭對手很高興能達到 9 倍。對不起，在某個時候，音樂必須停止，所有的椅子都不會坐滿。

And if you think over a 20-, 30-year base, I mean, 4% 10 year, it's not really that high. I mean, we'll see where it goes from here. But Doug seemed to have more confidence that maybe they would go away. But if we're at the peak here and we stay here for a while, 4% isn't going to scare them away, I suppose. I mean obviously they're going to pay more than what the 10-year is. But it's got to go higher really to cause their exit, I guess. Am I right saying that?

如果你考慮 20 年或 30 年的基數，我的意思是，10 年 4%，它並沒有那麼高。我的意思是，我們將看看它從這裡走向何方。但道格似乎更有信心，也許他們會離開。但如果我們在這里達到頂峰並在這裡停留一段時間，我想 4% 不會嚇跑他們。我的意思是，他們顯然會支付比 10 年更多的費用。但我想它必須走得更高才能真正導致他們退出。我這樣說對嗎？

Yes, I'd agree with that. The returns have been outstanding. I agree with that.

是的，我同意這一點。回報一直很突出。我同意這一點。

Our final question is from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自自治研究的 Ryan Tunis。

I first just wanted to say that the $55 million good guy, that's a nice line. I can't remember the last time in broker land, you had a below-the-line item that it somehow went in the right direction. I think some of your competitors might even count that as organic.

我一開始只想說這個 5500 萬美元的好人，這是一條不錯的路線。我不記得上次在經紀人領域，你有一個線下項目，它以某種方式朝著正確的方向發展。我認為您的一些競爭對手甚至可能將其視為有機產品。

Yes. [Look good], Ryan.

是的。 [看起來不錯]，瑞恩。

But -- yes, Doug, take your time spending it. We don't need it to lean on margins in '23. But I just had one bigger picture question, I guess, on margins. So organic has been really soft for the past couple of years.

但是——是的，道格，慢慢來吧。我們不需要它在 23 年依靠利潤。但我想，我只是在邊際上有一個更大的問題。在過去的幾年裡，有機食品真的很軟。

And obviously -- but I mean, it could have not been strong, too, in which case I also don't think your expense growth would have been as high as it's been. So there seems to be some element of clearly, the organic has allowed you guys to have -- I want to make sure I'm thinking about this right, like kind of an investment cycle.

顯然 - 但我的意思是，它也可能不會很強勁，在這種情況下，我也不認為你的費用增長會像以前那樣高。所以似乎有一些明確的元素，有機讓你們擁有 - 我想確保我正在考慮這個問題，就像一種投資週期。

So I'm just curious, is that the right way to think about it? Like, has the strong organic allowed you to kind of potentially pull forward some investing you had to do? And I'm just kind of curious, maybe some of the capabilities that you guys have been able to take on, I guess, to improve the organization over the past couple of years that you wouldn't have if we were in more of a 4% organic growth environment?

所以我只是好奇，這是正確的思考方式嗎？就像，強大的有機會讓你有可能推進一些你必須做的投資？我只是有點好奇，也許你們能夠承擔的一些能力，我猜，在過去的幾年裡改善組織，如果我們在更多的4%的有機增長環境？

Yes. I think you've got your nose right in it. And I think if you go back and listen to our IR Days -- these earnings calls, we get an hour to talk to you -- but during our IR Days, you hear our 5 or 6 division leaders talk about all the investments. If you listen to the first 5 minutes or 6 minutes of their prepared remarks, they're talking about all the value-added features and client-centric enhancements that we're doing in our business. And we're spending a lot of money on that. We've talked about Gallagher Drive. We've talked about SmartMarket, we've talked about Gallagher Submit. We've talked about our niche resources. If you look at our content that's out there, all of that is investment and we're adding to it every year.

是的。我想你已經把你的鼻子放在裡面了。我想如果你回去聽我們的 IR 日——這些收益電話，我們有一個小時與你交談——但在我們的 IR 日，你會聽到我們的 5 或 6 位部門領導談論所有投資。如果您聆聽他們準備好的評論的前 5 分鐘或 6 分鐘，他們正在談論我們在業務中所做的所有增值功能和以客戶為中心的增強功能。我們在這方面花了很多錢。我們已經談到了加拉格爾驅動器。我們討論了 SmartMarket，我們討論了 Gallagher Submit。我們已經討論了我們的利基資源。如果您查看我們的內容，所有這些都是投資，我們每年都在增加。

So we are running a business right now that has a substantial amount of investment in it to make us better. I think it's showing up in our organic, to be real honest. I think the reason why we perform well on organic is we continue to make investments into our production and our sales and niche capabilities, our service. 15 years ago, we didn't know how long it took us to turn around a ser -- right now, we turn around 99.9% of them within 1 hour of request because of the investments that we've made to better the service. Those type of things are just in our blood at this point. And it's in our operating [terms], yet we're still posting terrific margins on it.

因此，我們現在正在經營一家企業，該企業對其進行了大量投資，以使我們變得更好。老實說，我認為它出現在我們的有機產品中。我認為我們在有機產品方面表現出色的原因是我們繼續對我們的生產、銷售和利基能力以及我們的服務進行投資。 15 年前，我們不知道我們需要多長時間才能完成服務 - 現在，由於我們為改善服務所做的投資，我們在 1 小時內完成了 99.9% 的服務。在這一點上，這些類型的東西就在我們的血液中。它在我們的運營 [條款] 中，但我們仍然在它上面發布了可觀的利潤。

So to add to that, I would say take a look at our internship, we're very proud of the fact that this summer, we had 500 young people look at our business. And these are paid interns. These aren't interns that come to work for free, and that's a U.S.-based number. If we take the people outside the U.S., it's probably closer to 600.

除此之外，我想說看看我們的實習，我們為今年夏天有 500 名年輕人關注我們的業務這一事實感到非常自豪。這些是帶薪實習生。這些不是免費工作的實習生，這是一個美國的數字。如果我們把人帶到美國以外的地方，可能會接近 600 人。

I don't know another organization investing in the future of their people like that, in our business or, frankly, another business. So I'm very proud of that.

我不知道還有哪個組織像這樣投資他們員工的未來，在我們的業務中，或者坦率地說，在其他業務中。所以我為此感到非常自豪。

Thanks, Ryan, and thank you, everybody, for joining us. We really appreciated this evening. We had an excellent third quarter. We're well on our way to delivering a fantastic year of financial performance. I need to thank more than 42,000 colleagues around the globe for their hard work and dedication to our clients. We look forward to speaking with you again in person in December at our Investment Day -- Investor Day in New York. Thanks again, everybody. Have a great evening.

謝謝瑞恩，謝謝大家加入我們。我們非常感謝今晚。我們有一個出色的第三季度。我們正朝著實現出色財務業績的方向邁進。我要感謝全球 42,000 多名同事的辛勤工作和對客戶的奉獻。我們期待在 12 月的投資日——紐約投資者日再次與您面對面交談。再次感謝大家。有一個美好的夜晚。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。