Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

下午好，歡迎來到 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （接線員說明）今天的電話正在錄音中。如果您有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the cautionary statement and risk factors contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on its forward-looking statements. In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website. It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Chairman, President and CEO, Arthur J. Gallagher & Company.

本次電話會議期間發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。有關其前瞻性陳述的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警告聲明和風險因素。此外，有關本次電話會議上討論的非 GAAP 措施的對賬以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益發布和其他材料。現在我很高興介紹 J. Patrick Gallagher，Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官。

Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

加拉格爾先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter '22 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our Chief Financial Officer, as well as the heads of our operating divisions. We had a terrific finish to cap off an excellent year. During the quarter, for our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 16% growth in revenue, 11.7% organic growth. GAAP earnings per share of $0.83, adjusted earnings per share of $1.86, up 24% year-over-year, reported net earnings margin of 9%, adjusted EBITDAC margin of 29.6%, up 120 basis points. We also completed 17 mergers totaling more than $140 million of estimated annualized revenues in addition to announcing our agreement to acquire Buck, another fantastic quarter by the team and our best fourth quarter in decades.

謝謝你。下午好，感謝您加入我們的 22 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的首席財務官 Doug Howell 以及我們運營部門的負責人。我們以出色的成績結束了出色的一年。在本季度，我們合併的經紀和風險管理部門的收入增長了 16%，有機增長了 11.7%。 GAAP 每股收益為 0.83 美元，調整後每股收益為 1.86 美元，同比增長 24%，報告淨利潤率為 9%，調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 29.6%，上升 120 個基點。我們還完成了 17 項合併，預計年收入總額超過 1.4 億美元，此外還宣布了我們收購 Buck 的協議，這是團隊的又一個出色季度，也是我們幾十年來最好的第四季度。

Let me give you some more detail on our fourth quarter performance, starting with our Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 16%. Organic was 11%. Doug will explain it does include a point from our Annual 606 review, Brokerage organic and double digits is outstanding. Acquisition rollover revenues were $107 million, and our adjusted EBITDAC margin was 31.3%, up 120 basis points and in line with our December IR Day expectations, another excellent quarter for the brokerage team. Focusing on the Brokerage segment organic, let me walk you around the world and provide some more detailed commentary starting with our P/C operations.

讓我從我們的經紀部門開始，向您詳細介紹我們第四季度的業績。報告的收入增長為 16%。有機佔 11%。 Doug 將解釋它確實包括我們年度 606 審查中的一個要點，經紀有機和兩位數非常出色。收購展期收入為 1.07 億美元，我們調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 31.3%，上升 120 個基點，符合我們 12 月 IR Day 的預期，這是經紀團隊的又一個出色季度。專注於有機經紀業務，讓我帶您環遊世界，並從我們的 P/C 業務開始提供一些更詳細的評論。

Our U.S. retail business posted 8% organic, our new business was a bit better than last year offset somewhat by less nonrecurring business, client retention and the combined impact of rate and exposure were both similar to last year's fourth quarter. Risk Placement Services, our U.S. wholesale operations, posted organic above 9%. This includes more than 12% organic and open brokerage and about 7% organic in our MGA programs and binding businesses. New business was strong and retention was consistent with last year's fourth quarter.

我們的美國零售業務實現了 8% 的有機增長，我們的新業務略好於去年，但被較少的非經常性業務、客戶保留率以及利率和風險敞口的綜合影響與去年第四季度相似所抵消。我們的美國批發業務風險配置服務的有機率超過 9%。這包括超過 12% 的有機和開放經紀業務，以及約 7% 的有機在我們的 MGA 計劃和綁定業務中。新業務強勁，保留率與去年第四季度一致。

Shifting to outside the U.S. Our U.K. businesses, both retail and specialty combined posted organic of 17% benefiting from excellent new business production, strong retention and the continued impact of renewal premium increases. Australia and New Zealand combined, organic was 12%. Net new versus loss business was consistent with last year and renewal premium increases were above fourth quarter '21 levels. Canada was up nearly 9% organically, reflecting solid new business and retention.

轉移到美國以外我們的英國業務，包括零售和專業業務，有機增長 17%，這得益於出色的新業務生產、強勁的保留率以及續保保費上漲的持續影響。澳大利亞和新西蘭加在一起，有機食品佔 12%。淨新業務與虧損業務與去年一致，續保保費增幅高於 21 年第四季度的水平。加拿大有機增長近 9%，反映出穩固的新業務和保留率。

Moving to our employee benefit brokerage and consulting business. Organic was 3%, consistent with our December IR Day expectations. New business was similar to last year's fourth quarter and retention remained excellent. And finally, to reinsurance. Our legacy reinsurance operations crushed it with some hard earned new business wins and quarterly organic well into double digits. And recall that December was the first month our newly acquired reinsurance operations were included in organic. And while off a very small revenue base, they too had a spectacular organic growth for the month. So combined, Gallagher Re team continues to deliver outstanding results.

轉向我們的員工福利經紀和諮詢業務。有機是 3%，與我們 12 月 IR Day 的預期一致。新業務與去年第四季度相似，保留率仍然很高。最後，再保險。我們的遺留再保險業務以一些來之不易的新業務勝利和季度有機業務將其壓倒在兩位數。回想一下，12 月是我們新收購的再保險業務被納入有機業務的第一個月。雖然收入基礎非常小，但他們在本月也實現了驚人的有機增長。如此結合，Gallagher Re 團隊繼續取得出色的成績。

So again, Brokerage segment, all in organic double digits. And with our outstanding fourth quarter finish, full year organic came in at 9.7%. That's our best full year Brokerage segment organic performance in decades and even more impressive when you consider we grew on top of the 8% organic we posted in '21.

再次，經紀業務部分，全部為有機兩位數。憑藉我們出色的第四季度成績，全年有機增長率為 9.7%。這是我們幾十年來最好的全年經紀部門有機表現，當你認為我們在 21 年發布的 8% 有機增長之上增長時，更令人印象深刻。

Next, let me give you some thoughts on the current P/C market environment starting in the primary insurance market. Overall, global fourth quarter renewal premiums, that's both rate and exposure combined, were up more than 9% that's consistent with the 8% to 10% renewal premium change we have been reporting throughout '22. Fourth quarter renewal premium changes by line of business were broadly consistent with the first 3 quarters of '22 with 1 exception, which is D&O. D&O continues to be the one area where rates are flat to down slightly, but in some cases, our customers are using the weaker pricing to purchase more limit.

下面，我從直保市場開始，給大家說說目前的產險市場環境。總體而言，全球第四季度續約保費，即利率和風險的總和，增長了 9% 以上，這與我們在整個 22 年期間報告的 8% 至 10% 的續約保費變化一致。按業務線劃分的第四季度續訂保費變化與 22 年前三個季度大致一致，只有一個例外，即 D&O。 D&O 仍然是利率持平或略有下降的一個領域，但在某些情況下，我們的客戶正在使用較弱的定價來購買更多限額。

Exposures also continue to be consistent with the first 3 quarters of '22, indicating continued strength in our customers' business activity. In fact, fourth quarter midterm policy endorsements, audits and cancellations were better than fourth quarter '21 levels. Looking ahead, these trends appear to be holding. Thus far in January, midterm policy endorsements and audit adjustments are trending higher than last year's level and global renewal premium increases are consistent with the fourth quarter. But remember, our job is to help clients mitigate premium increases and provide an appropriate level of risk transfer that fits their budgets.

風險敞口也繼續與 22 年前三個季度保持一致，表明我們客戶的業務活動持續強勁。事實上，第四季度中期政策的認可、審計和取消比 21 年第四季度的水平要好。展望未來，這些趨勢似乎會持續下去。 1 月份到目前為止，中期政策認可和審計調整趨勢高於去年水平，全球續保保費增長與第四季度一致。但請記住，我們的工作是幫助客戶減輕保費上漲，並提供適合他們預算的適當水平的風險轉移。

Shifting to reinsurance and the important January 1 renewals. As we discussed in our 1st View Market report published earlier this month, it was a very late and complex reinsurance renewal season. Not surprising, U.S. peak zone property cat reinsurance saw some of the largest price increases. But it's worth noting 4 additional trends within property cat: First, attachment points were raised broadly; second, reinsurers pushed to remove prepaid reinstatements from some contracts; third, reinsurers, in some cases, were able to reduce coverage to named perils only; and fourth, top layers of many programs saw the largest percentage increases as reinsurers sought to push up minimum premium rates.

轉向再保險和重要的 1 月 1 日續保。正如我們在本月早些時候發布的第一份 View Market 報告中所討論的那樣，這是一個非常晚且複雜的再保險續保季節。毫不奇怪，美國高峰區財產巨災再保險的價格漲幅最大。但值得注意的是 property cat 中的 4 個額外趨勢： 第一，附著點被廣泛提升；其次，再保險公司推動取消某些合同中的預付恢復；第三，在某些情況下，再保險公司能夠將承保範圍減少到僅指定的風險；第四，隨著再保險公司尋求提高最低保費率，許多項目的頂層保費增幅最大。

On the casualty side, prices were up in the single to low double-digit range for most programs, while terms and conditions were more stable. Despite the tough market backdrop of higher prices, lower capacity and tightening terms, the reinsurance team was able to deliver favorable outcomes for our clients. Looking forward, the challenging reinsurance market conditions will, no doubt, put pricing pressure on the primary market during '23, and that's on top of our primary carrier partners dealing with catastrophe losses in secondary perils, including convective storms, floods and wildfires, high replacement cost inflation from raw materials to shortages in labor, social inflation, combined with the easing of the judicial system law [jam], escalating medical cost trends and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

在傷亡方面，大多數項目的價格都在個位數到低兩位數的範圍內上漲，而條款和條件則更加穩定。儘管價格上漲、運力下降和條款收緊等嚴峻的市場背景，再保險團隊仍能夠為我們的客戶帶來有利的結果。展望未來，毫無疑問，充滿挑戰的再保險市場狀況將在 23 年期間給一級市場帶來定價壓力，而這超出了我們的主要承運人合作夥伴處理次生風險的巨災損失，包括對流風暴、洪水和野火、高重置成本通脹從原材料到勞動力短缺、社會通脹，再加上司法系統法律的放鬆 [jam]、不斷升級的醫療成本趨勢和持續的地緣政治緊張局勢。

So there's good reason to expect continued price increases and cautious underwriting for the foreseeable future. And as I mentioned before, we are not seeing any signs of exposure contraction. Rather, it seems our clients' business activity remains unchanged from the past few quarters. Within our employee benefit brokerage and consulting business, the backdrop for '23 is also broadly favorable. Employers continue to add jobs and wages are growing. So demand for our services and offerings should remain robust. So as I sit here today, '23 could be another fantastic year with brokerage organic growth nicely in the 7% to 9% range.

因此，有充分的理由預計在可預見的未來價格會持續上漲並謹慎承保。正如我之前提到的，我們沒有看到任何曝光收縮的跡象。相反，我們客戶的業務活動似乎與過去幾個季度相比沒有變化。在我們的員工福利經紀和諮詢業務中，'23 的背景也普遍有利。雇主繼續增加工作崗位，工資也在增長。因此，對我們的服務和產品的需求應該會保持強勁。因此，當我今天坐在這裡時，23 年可能又是一個美妙的一年，經紀業務有機增長在 7% 到 9% 之間。

Moving on to mergers and acquisitions. We had a really active fourth quarter completing 17 new tuck-in brokerage mergers representing more than $140 million of estimated annual revenues. I'd like to thank all of our new partners for joining us and extend a very warm welcome to our growing Gallagher family of professionals.

繼續併購。我們在第四季度非常活躍，完成了 17 項新的經紀業務合併，預計年收入超過 1.4 億美元。我要感謝我們所有的新合作夥伴加入我們，並熱烈歡迎我們不斷壯大的 Gallagher 專業人士大家庭。

For the year, we completed 36 mergers, representing annualized revenue of about $250 million. Additionally, we announced an agreement to acquire Buck, a very complementary business providing retirement, HR and employee benefits consulting and administrative services with estimated annualized revenues of $280 million. We expect the transaction to close during the second quarter and look forward to welcoming our new colleagues.

這一年，我們完成了 36 項合併，年化收入約為 2.5 億美元。此外，我們還宣布了一項收購 Buck 的協議，這是一家互補性很強的企業，提供退休、人力資源和員工福利諮詢和行政服務，估計年收入為 2.8 億美元。我們預計交易將在第二季度完成，並期待著歡迎我們的新同事。

Moving to our merger and acquisition pipeline. We have nearly 45 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing more than $300 million of annualized revenue. We know not all of these will close. However, we believe we will get our fair share. And before I conclude my M&A comments, let me give you a quick recap on our reinsurance acquisition now that we have a full year in our books. We had a fantastic '22, thanks to strong client retention, the expansion of existing client relationships, some great new business wins and excellent growth in our pro rata business. The team is fully assimilated, is delivering for clients and there's a lot of momentum. I believe we're on track for an even better '23. Needless to say, reinsurance continues to be an exciting story.

轉向我們的併購渠道。我們已簽署或正在準備近 45 份投資意向書，年收入超過 3 億美元。我們知道並非所有這些都會關閉。但是，我們相信我們會得到應有的份額。在我結束我的併購評論之前，讓我快速回顧一下我們的再保險收購，因為我們已經整整一年了。由於強大的客戶保留率、現有客戶關係的擴展、一些偉大的新業務勝利以及我們按比例業務的出色增長，我們有一個很棒的 22 年。該團隊已完全融入，正在為客戶提供服務，而且勢頭強勁。我相信我們正在朝著更好的 23 年邁進。不用說，再保險仍然是一個令人興奮的故事。

Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Fourth quarter organic growth was 15.6% as a strong finish to the quarter pushed organic above our mid-December expectation. Core new arising claims increased during the quarter, driven by recent new business wins and continued growth from existing clients. And fourth quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was great at 19.3%. So putting it all together, Gallagher Bassett finished the year with an adjusted EBITDAC margin of 18.5% and 13.3% organic benefiting from increased claim activity coming out of the pandemic and some really nice new business wins.

轉到我們的風險管理部門，Gallagher Bassett。第四季度的有機增長率為 15.6%，因為本季度的強勁表現推動有機增長率高於我們 12 月中旬的預期。在最近贏得的新業務和現有客戶的持續增長的推動下，核心新索賠在本季度有所增加。第四季度調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率高達 19.3%。因此，綜上所述，Gallagher Bassett 以 18.5% 的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率和 13.3% 的有機利潤率結束了這一年，這得益於大流行帶來的索賠活動增加以及一些非常不錯的新業務勝利。

Looking forward, full year '23 organic should be pushing 10% and adjusted EBITDAC margins should be around 19%. That would be another fantastic year. And I'd like to conclude with some comments regarding our bedrock culture. It's a culture of teamwork, client service and excellence, captured and celebrated in the Gallagher way. It is the culture that drove full year '22 results for our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments of 24% growth in adjusted revenues, 10% all-in organic, 25% growth in adjusted EBITDAC, adjusted EBITDAC margin in excess of 32% and 20% growth in adjusted EPS. We have a culture that our people believe in, embrace and live every day. It's a culture that will continue to drive us forward. That is the Gallagher way. Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

展望未來，23 年全年的有機增長率應該達到 10%，調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率應該在 19% 左右。那將是另一個美妙的一年。最後，我想就我們的基石文化發表一些評論。這是一種團隊合作、客戶服務和卓越的文化，以 Gallagher 的方式體現和慶祝。正是這種文化推動了我們合併的經紀和風險管理部門在 22 年的全年業績，調整後收入增長 24%，有機增長 10%，調整後 EBITDAC 增長 25%，調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率超過 32%，以及調整後每股收益增長 20%。我們擁有一種我們的員工每天都相信、擁抱和生活的文化。這種文化將繼續推動我們前進。這就是加拉格爾的方式。好的。我現在停下來，把它交給道格。道格？

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. A fantastic fourth quarter to close out another outstanding year. Today, I'll start with our earnings release, touching on organic margins and the Corporate segment shortcut table. Next, I'll walk you through our CFO commentary document, point out a few items for the next quarter and also provide a first look at our typical modeling helpers for '23 then I'll finish up with some comments on cash, M&A capacity and capital management.

謝謝，帕特，大家好。出色的第四季度結束了又一個出色的一年。今天，我將從我們的收益發布開始，涉及有機利潤率和公司部門快捷方式表。接下來，我將向您介紹我們的 CFO 評論文件，指出下個季度的一些項目，並初步了解我們 23 年的典型建模助手，然後我將對現金、併購能力進行一些評論和資本管理。

Okay. Let's flip to Page 3 of the earnings release to the Brokerage segment organic table. All in brokerage organic of 11%, above the 9% to 9.5% that we foreshadowed in December. Two drivers of the upside. First, as Pat just discussed, we had a really strong finish within our P&C and reinsurance brokerage operations. Second, our annual update of 606 assumptions added about 1 point to our headline organic. Recall under ASC 606, we must routinely update our assumptions related to the amount of services provided before and after the placement of an insurance policy. Based on our most recent operational analysis, metrics and time studies, more of our services being provided at the time of placement and more of the post placement service is being handled faster in our lower-cost centers of excellence.

好的。讓我們翻到收益發布的第 3 頁到經紀部門有機表。所有經紀業務有機率為 11%，高於我們在 12 月份預測的 9% 至 9.5%。上行的兩個驅動因素。首先，正如 Pat 剛才所討論的，我們在 P&C 和再保險經紀業務方面取得了非常好的成績。其次，我們對 606 項假設的年度更新為我們的標題有機增加了約 1 個百分點。回想一下 ASC 606，我們必須定期更新與投保前後提供的服務量相關的假設。根據我們最近的運營分析、指標和時間研究，我們的更多服務在安置時提供，更多安置後服務在我們低成本的卓越中心得到更快的處理。

This causes less of our revenue to be deferred and thus, we recognized an additional $15 million of revenue in the quarter. That is a small amount relative to our total deferred revenue balance nearly $435 million, but it does cause an additional point of organic. So we're the call out today.

這導致我們遞延的收入減少，因此，我們在本季度確認了額外的 1500 萬美元收入。相對於我們近 4.35 億美元的總遞延收入餘額而言，這是一個很小的數額，但它確實帶來了一個額外的有機點。所以我們今天出動了。

From an expense perspective, our updated 606 assumptions also caused some additional compensation expense to be recognized during the quarter. The punchline of all this, our fourth quarter organic revenues, EBITDAC and net earnings got a small boost and adjusted EBITDAC margin was not significantly impacted. So 11% headline organic, 10% controlling for 606 and 120 basis points of margin expansion, that's a terrific quarter.

從費用的角度來看，我們更新的 606 假設還導致本季度確認了一些額外的補償費用。所有這一切的重點是，我們第四季度的有機收入、EBITDAC 和淨收益得到了小幅提升，調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率沒有受到重大影響。所以 11% 的標題有機，10% 控制 606 和 120 個基點的利潤率擴張，這是一個了不起的季度。

Looking forward to '23, we're currently not seeing a slowdown in our clients' business activity. We're not seeing signs of price moderation from the carriers, and we still have loss cost inflation and labor market imbalances. Add that to our client for sales and service culture, we are still seeing '23 organic in that 7% to 9% range, as we stated during our December IR Day.

展望 23 年，我們目前沒有看到客戶的業務活動放緩。我們沒有從承運人那裡看到價格放緩的跡象，而且我們仍然面臨損失成本膨脹和勞動力市場失衡的問題。將其添加到我們的銷售和服務文化客戶中，正如我們在 12 月的 IR 日所說，我們仍然看到 7% 到 9% 的範圍內有 23 個有機產品。

Same with our margin outlook for '23. We are still comfortable with our December commentary. We think we can deliver about 50 basis margin expansion at 6% organic and fiduciary investment income could be a nice margin sweetener provided there isn't a surge in wage and cost inflation.

與我們對 23 年的利潤率展望相同。我們仍然對 12 月的評論感到滿意。我們認為我們可以以 6% 的有機和信託投資收入實現約 50 個基差的擴張，前提是工資和成本通脹沒有激增。

One other (inaudible) heads up for '23. On December 20, we announced our acquisition of Buck. The business operations operates at an adjusted EBITDAC margin around 20%, so please make sure a portion of your pick for future M&A revenues reflects that versus what you might pick for our other mergers.

另一個（聽不清）負責 23 年。 12 月 20 日，我們宣布收購 Buck。業務運營的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率約為 20%，因此請確保您對未來併購收入的選擇部分反映了這一點，而不是您可能為我們的其他合併選擇的收入。

Moving on to the Risk Management segment and the organic table at the bottom of Page 6. You'll see 15.6% organic in the fourth quarter and full year organic in excess of 13%. Some of that growth this year comes from our clients' business activity still rebounding out of the pandemic and getting back to levels they saw before the pandemic. Accordingly, for '23, we're seeing organic revenue approaching 10%.

轉到第 6 頁底部的風險管理部分和有機表。您將看到第四季度有機率為 15.6%，全年有機率超過 13%。今年的部分增長來自我們客戶的業務活動仍在從大流行中反彈並恢復到大流行前的水平。因此，對於 23 年，我們看到有機收入接近 10%。

Flipping to Page 7. The Risk Management adjusted EBITDAC margin of 19.3% in the quarter and 18.5% for the full year. We see a nice step-up in '23 with margins around 19% even as we continue to make investments to enhance the client experience and in analytics and tools to drive better claim outcomes. Another year of double-digit growth and margin expansion would be another terrific year.

翻到第 7 頁。風險管理部門將本季度的 EBITDAC 利潤率調整為 19.3%，將全年調整為 18.5%。即使我們繼續投資以增強客戶體驗以及分析和工具以推動更好的索賠結果，我們在 23 年看到了很好的提升，利潤率約為 19%。又是兩位數增長和利潤率擴張的一年將是又一個了不起的一年。

Turning to Page 8 to the Corporate segment shortcut table. In total, adjusted results were at the favorable end of our December IR day forecast. You also see 2 non-GAAP adjustments this quarter. First, our M&A transaction costs of $5 million after tax, mostly related to Buck and a little relates to Willis treaty. And second, as we discussed previously, you'll see a $31 million after-tax gain related to legal and tax matters.

轉到第 8 頁的公司部門快捷方式表。總的來說，調整後的結果處於我們 12 月 IR 日預測的有利末尾。您還看到本季度有 2 項非 GAAP 調整。首先，我們的併購交易成本為稅後 500 萬美元，主要與 Buck 有關，也有少量與 Willis 條約有關。其次，正如我們之前所討論的，您將看到與法律和稅務問題相關的 3100 萬美元稅後收益。

Now shifting to our CFO commentary document we posted on our IR website, starting on Page 3. As for fourth quarter, you'll see most of the brokerage and risk management items are close to our December IR day estimates. On the right-hand side of the page, we're providing our first look at '23. A couple of things worth highlighting: First, FX. With last year's midyear strengthening in the U.S. dollar, you'll see some volatility in how FX will impact our brokerage and risk management results in first half versus second half of '23. Please make sure to consider these impacts as you're planning your models.

現在轉到我們在 IR 網站上發布的 CFO 評論文件，從第 3 頁開始。至於第四季度，您會看到大部分經紀業務和風險管理項目都接近我們 12 月 IR 日的估計。在頁面的右側，我們首次展示了 '23。有幾件事值得強調：首先，FX。隨著去年年中美元的走強，您會看到外匯對我們在 23 年上半年和下半年的經紀業務和風險管理業績的影響會出現一些波動。請確保在規劃模型時考慮這些影響。

Second, our adjusted tax rate. With the U.K. corporate tax rate increasing to 25% effective April 1, we're providing our current estimate for full year '23 tax rate. More of an impact to our Brokerage segment than it is to our Risk Management segment, given the size of our U.K. retail London specialty and reinsurance brokerage operation. And one other thing. The left side of this page might be a nice reference when making your picks for quarterly margins given our quarterly seasonality. And finally, when you do make your margin picks, recall we were still in the Omicron portion of the pandemic during the first quarter of '22. So we're not expecting as much margin expansion in first quarter as we are in the second, third and fourth quarter of '23.

第二，我們調整後的稅率。隨著英國公司稅率從 4 月 1 日起上調至 25%，我們提供了我們對 23 年全年稅率的當前估計。考慮到我們英國零售倫敦專業和再保險經紀業務的規模，對我們的經紀部門的影響比對我們的風險管理部門的影響更大。還有一件事。考慮到我們的季度季節性，當您選擇季度利潤時，本頁左側可能是一個很好的參考。最後，當你做出保證金選擇時，回想一下，在 22 年第一季度，我們仍處於大流行的 Omicron 部分。因此，我們預計第一季度的利潤率不會像 23 年第二、第三和第四季度那樣大幅增長。

Okay. Moving to Page 5. This page is here to highlight the incremental cash flows from our clean energy investments over the coming years. And remember, those come through the cash flow statement, not the P&L. You'll also see that we have $773 million of available tax credits as of December 31, '22. And that we forecast using about $180 million to $200 million in '23 and that should step up a bit in '24 and each later year. That's a really nice cash flow boost to help fund our M&A.

好的。轉到第 5 頁。此頁面強調未來幾年我們清潔能源投資的增量現金流。請記住，這些來自現金流量表，而不是損益表。您還會看到，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們有 7.73 億美元的可用稅收抵免。而且我們預測在 23 年使用大約 1.8 億至 2 億美元，並且在 24 年和以後的每一年應該會增加一點。這是一個非常好的現金流提振，有助於為我們的併購提供資金。

The way I look at the math, it might say that an additional $773 million of free cash, combined maybe another $70 million of recurring EBITDAC at that 10 to 11x multiple, which would then have a nice arbitrage for our current trading multiple.

我看待數學的方式，可能會說額外的 7.73 億美元自由現金，再加上 7000 萬美元的經常性 EBITDAC，倍數為 10 到 11 倍，這將對我們當前的交易倍數有很好的套利。

Moving to Page 6 on the rollover revenue table. For the fourth quarter, rollover revenues came in higher than our December IR day guidance. Most of all of that came from reinsurance. Over the last 3 weeks, cedents have been closing their books for '22, and we're getting updated ceded premium figures. That translated into additional commission revenue for '22. For the sake of clarity, nearly all of that upside is excluded from our organic results because it likely relates to pre-December 1, '22, which marked the first year anniversary of the acquisition. And no -- also, please note that not all of that hits the bottom line because of production and incentive comp expense on that additional revenue. That said, it's terrific to get the bump-up.

轉到滾動收入表的第 6 頁。對於第四季度，展期收入高於我們 12 月 IR 日的指導。其中大部分來自再保險。在過去的 3 周里，分出公司一直在關閉他們 22 年的賬簿，我們正在獲得更新的分出溢價數據。這轉化為 22 年的額外佣金收入。為了清楚起見，幾乎所有的上行空間都被排除在我們的有機結果之外，因為它可能與 22 年 12 月 1 日之前有關，這標誌著收購一周年。不——另外，請注意，由於額外收入的生產和激勵補償費用，並非所有這些都達到了底線。就是說，獲得提升真是太棒了。

Staying on Page 6, but moving down to the bottom table. That table shows our actual reinsurance acquisition results. In a transition year, the team overperformed our pro forma expectation. That's impressive and terrific work by the team.

停留在第 6 頁，但向下移動到底部表格。該表顯示了我們實際的再保險收購結果。在過渡年，該團隊的表現超出了我們的備考預期。這是團隊令人印象深刻和出色的工作。

So now let me move to some final comments on cash, capital management and future M&A. At December 31, available cash on hand was about $325 million. Our current cash position, combined with strong expected cash flows and incremental borrowing positions us well for our pipeline of M&A opportunities. In total, we estimate towards $3 billion to fund potential M&A opportunities during '23, which would include paying for Buck. And also yesterday, our Board of Directors approved an increase in our quarterly dividend by $0.04 per share. That would imply an annual payout of $2.20 per share. That's a 7.8% increase over '22.

那麼現在讓我談談對現金、資本管理和未來併購的一些最後評論。截至 12 月 31 日，可用手頭現金約為 3.25 億美元。我們目前的現金狀況，加上強勁的預期現金流和增量借款，使我們在併購機會的管道中處於有利地位。總的來說，我們估計將有 30 億美元用於在 23 年期間為潛在的併購機會提供資金，其中包括支付 Buck 的費用。也是在昨天，我們的董事會批准將季度股息每股增加 0.04 美元。這意味著每年每股支付 2.20 美元。這比 22 年增加了 7.8%。

So with a strong organic outlook, margin expansion opportunities and an ever-growing M&A pipeline, from my vantage point as CFO, we are extremely well positioned for another fantastic year in '23. I'd like to thank the entire Gallagher team for another great quarter and outstanding year. Back to you, Pat.

因此，憑藉強大的有機前景、利潤擴張機會和不斷增長的併購管道，從我作為首席財務官的角度來看，我們為 23 年又一個精彩的一年做好了充分的準備。我要感謝整個 Gallagher 團隊又一個出色的季度和出色的一年。回到你身邊，帕特。

Thank you, Doug. Operator, I think we're ready for questions.

謝謝你，道格。接線員，我想我們已經準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Weston Bloomer with UBS.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Weston Bloomer。

So my first question is on the reinsurance market and the growth you saw there. It's obviously really strong end of the quarter. And I think you've talked about high single-digit growth there for 2023. So did the end of the year kind of change how you think about that level of growth? Or how should we be thinking that going into next year?

所以我的第一個問題是關於再保險市場和你在那裡看到的增長。這顯然是本季度末非常強勁的表現。而且我認為你已經談到了 2023 年的高個位數增長。那麼年底是否改變了你對這種增長水平的看法？或者我們應該如何考慮進入明年？

I think we are definitely going with some nice momentum. I wouldn't bank on some incremental big jump. But what I like about the momentum is when you come through a time like we did in this fourth quarter, it's interesting because you actually become much more valuable to your clients. And it's not an easy time when you're tussling back and forth with the cedents and the reinsurers trying to get these things done, terms are changing. Attachment levels are changing. But in the end, as I said in my prepared remarks, we got the placements made, and I think we are in a very strong position going forward, number one, with those clients, but also with the opportunity to pick up some new business.

我認為我們肯定會有一些不錯的勢頭。我不會寄希望於一些漸進的大躍進。但我喜歡這種勢頭的是，當你像我們在第四季度那樣度過一段時光時，這很有趣，因為你實際上對你的客戶變得更有價值。當您與試圖完成這些事情的分出人和再保險公司來回爭吵時，這不是一個輕鬆的時期，條件正在發生變化。依戀水平正在發生變化。但最終，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們完成了配售，我認為我們在未來處於非常有利的地位，第一，與這些客戶一起，但也有機會獲得一些新業務.

Great. And then my second question within brokerage as well. I noticed the compensation ratio as a percentage of revenue dropped pretty materially. And I think you'd called out some back-office saves, lower benefit costs, offset by some hiring. Is there a way you can call out how much each of those had an impact? Or where I'm trying to go with the question is how much additional leverage do you have to kind of bring that lower in 2023?

偉大的。然後是我在經紀業務中的第二個問題。我注意到薪酬佔收入的百分比大幅下降。而且我認為你會調出一些後台儲蓄，降低福利成本，並通過一些招聘來抵消。有沒有一種方法可以說出每個人的影響有多大？或者我想問的問題是，您需要多少額外的槓桿才能在 2023 年將其降低？

All right. Let me see if I can break that out from memory here. I don't have it in front of me exactly, but when you're talking about being down was at 180 basis points, something like that.

好的。讓我看看我是否可以在這裡從記憶中打破它。我沒有確切地把它放在我面前，但是當你談論下跌時是在 180 個基點，類似的東西。

Yes. Is that right? I'm just going from memory, Sorry, I'll look it up here. Probably 1/3 of that is due to the continued efficiency that we bring by being able to push work into our lower-cost centers of excellence. I think that we've had some technology wins in that area, too, to help us make our workforce more effective on that and didn't have to put on additional heads as a result of that -- those technology investments. And then I think that when it came to -- the other 1/3 is kind of escaping you right here.

是的。是對的嗎？我只是憑記憶，抱歉，我會在這裡查找。可能其中 1/3 是由於我們能夠將工作推向成本較低的卓越中心，從而帶來持續的效率。我認為我們在該領域也取得了一些技術上的勝利，以幫助我們提高我們的員工隊伍在這方面的效率，並且不必因此而增加額外的人才——那些技術投資。然後我認為，當它來到時 - 其他 1/3 有點逃避你。

Got it. Is there any change to the compensation structure that you make in this market, too? I know there's some changes just, I guess, higher organic accounts, things like that.

知道了。你們在這個市場上的薪酬結構也有什麼變化嗎？我知道有一些變化，我猜，更高的有機賬戶，諸如此類。

No. We're pleased to pay our people for what they do. And we haven't messed with that compensation arrangement with our production force, in particular, in well over a decade.

不，我們很高興為我們的員工所做的付出。我們並沒有與我們的生產團隊搞亂這種補償安排，特別是在十多年來。

Our next questions come from the line of [Katie Sakis] with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 [Katie Sakis] 與 Autonomous Research 的合作。

I want to follow up on the almost 10% 2022 brokerage organic results. Would you mind giving us some more color as to how pricing and exposure and net new business drove that year-over-year acceleration in organic. And then from where you sit today, how do you see those drivers changing in 2023?

我想跟進 2022 年近 10% 的經紀有機結果。你介意給我們更多的顏色來說明定價和曝光率以及淨新業務如何推動有機業務的同比增長。然後從你今天的位置來看，你如何看待這些驅動因素在 2023 年發生的變化？

So are you asking for the quarter? Are you asking for the full year? Sorry, just so I've got the baseline.

所以你問的是季度？你問的是全年嗎？對不起，我已經有了底線。

Yes, yes, for the full year.

是的，是的，全年。

For the full year, right? So when I look at rate and exposure, as I did, our new business, we had a terrific new business here. So I'll say that our net new business spread was about 4 points and the rest of that is probably rate and exposure, remember between that. So maybe, again, you think about it, 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 net new business over loss business is 1/3, rate was 1/3 and exposure unit growth was 1/3.

全年，對嗎？因此，當我像我一樣查看我們的新業務的利率和風險時，我們在這裡有一個了不起的新業務。所以我會說我們的淨新業務差價約為 4 個點，其餘的可能是利率和風險，請記住兩者之間。所以也許，你再次考慮一下，1/3、1/3、1/3 淨新業務超過虧損業務是 1/3，比率是 1/3，風險單位增長是 1/3。

Got it. Okay. And then as a quick follow-up, do you have any comments on the degree to which fiduciary investment income will impact margins next year, kind of thinking about that 50 bps of expansion on 6% organic, how much that move from fiduciary investment income?

知道了。好的。然後作為快速跟進，您對明年受託投資收入對利潤率的影響程度有何評論，想想 6% 的有機增長 50 個基點，受託投資收入的影響有多大？

I think the -- when we give the guidance of 6 points, if we grow organically, 6%, we think we can show about 50 basis points of margin expansion on that. Investment income would be a sweetener to that. to a certain extent. But I don't have a clear line of sight yet on the size of our raise pool and our hiring needs going into next year. We understand our budget. So I can't give you a specific number on it, but you give me a pick on what you think wage inflation is going to be next year to take care of our folks, and I can probably give you that number, but I don't think we're ready yet. I might be able to give you some more of that in March.

我認為 - 當我們給出 6 個百分點的指導時，如果我們有機增長 6%，我們認為我們可以顯示大約 50 個基點的利潤率擴張。投資收入將是一個甜頭。在某種程度上。但我對我們的加薪池規模和明年的招聘需求還沒有明確的看法。我們了解我們的預算。所以我不能給你一個具體的數字，但你可以給我一個你認為明年工資通脹會怎樣的選擇，以照顧我們的人民，我可能可以給你那個數字，但我不知道認為我們已經準備好了。我也許可以在 3 月份為您提供更多信息。

Our next questions come from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Greg Peters 和 Raymond James 的對話。

I'm going to stick on the margin commentary. In your press releases on Page 4, you talked about the operating expense ratio and some of the pressures on that. So when you -- in your guide the 50 basis points or so of margin expansion provided 6% organic, how do we think about those factors affecting your ability to expand margins? And then just on the margin expansion, can you break it out based on business unit like is it going to come in international that you're going to get margin expansion or is it going to come into the employee benefits business, you get margin expansion? Or can you source where you think that's going to -- where that -- where the improvement is going to come from?

我要堅持邊注評論。在第 4 頁的新聞稿中，您談到了運營費用比率以及與之相關的一些壓力。因此，當你——在你的指導下，50 個基點左右的利潤率擴張提供了 6% 的有機增長，我們如何看待影響你擴大利潤率能力的那些因素？然後就利潤率擴張而言，你能否根據業務部門將其分解，比如它是否會進入國際市場，你將獲得利潤率擴張，或者它是否會進入員工福利業務，你將獲得利潤率擴張？或者，您能否從您認為將要改進的地方找到來源？

Right. A couple of things. On the operating expense ratio, it was up in fourth quarter versus '21 fourth quarter, was up about 30 to 40 basis points, let's call it, 40 basis points on that. I think the footnote on that is explaining where it's coming from, mostly travel and entertainment, some consulting use and investments in technology. So I'd say it's probably half of that increase is investments and half of it is just the inflation that we're seeing in travel and consulting costs on that. When you're -- I think the next question was how am I seeing that vis-a-vis next year.

正確的。幾件事。在營業費用比率方面，第四季度與第四季度相比有所上升，上升了大約 30 到 40 個基點，我們稱之為 40 個基點。我認為上面的腳註解釋了它的來源，主要是旅遊和娛樂，一些諮詢使用和技術投資。所以我想說，增長的一半可能是投資，而其中一半只是我們在差旅和諮詢費用方面看到的通貨膨脹。當你——我認為下一個問題是我如何看待明年的情況。

Remember, we were still in the omicron portion of the pandemic in the first quarter. So we are going to see a little more travel and entertainment expense return in our first quarter, but we don't see it being up significantly in the second, third and fourth quarters. So we're looking at 50 basis points of expansion next year. Most of that will come in the later 3 quarters than the first quarter. And what was there was another piece of your question, Greg?

請記住，我們在第一季度仍處於大流行的 omicron 部分。因此，我們將在第一季度看到更多的旅行和娛樂費用回報，但我們認為第二、第三和第四季度不會顯著增加。因此，我們正在考慮明年擴張 50 個基點。其中大部分將出現在比第一季度晚 3 個季度。格雷格，你的另一個問題是什麼？

It was just when I think about within the Brokerage business, the different business units, the employee benefits, the international the retail RPS, when you look at it that way, where do you think the opportunity is for margin expansion in the context of that 50 basis points or so guidance?

就在我考慮經紀業務、不同業務部門、員工福利、國際零售 RPS 時，當你這樣看時，你認為在這種情況下擴大利潤的機會在哪裡50個基點左右的指引？

Yes, it's pretty much so across all of them, Greg -- there is no standout in there anywhere that's a laggard in there.

是的，格雷格，幾乎所有人都如此——在任何落後的地方都沒有突出表現。

Makes sense. Okay. And the other -- just the other sort of cleanup question on Buck consulting. Can you give us -- is there any sort of cadence in terms of how the revenue flows and how the margins are. I mean is it heavier in the first quarter, either revenue or margins? Or any sort of color you can add as we -- and just as a follow-up, I assume that's also going to get folded into the Brokerage segment, correct?

說得通。好的。另一個——只是關於巴克諮詢的另一種清理問題。你能給我們嗎 - 在收入流動方式和利潤率方面是否有任何節奏？我的意思是第一季度收入或利潤率更重嗎？或者你可以在我們添加的任何顏色——作為後續行動，我認為這也將被納入經紀業務部分，對嗎？

Yes. So it will be part of our Brokerage segment and our Employee Benefit operation. Greg, we don't think we're going to close that in the first quarter. We think it's more of a second quarter close at this point. I don't really have a good quarterly spread that I would feel comfortable giving on the call today for that because we have to apply our study on conforming the accounting principles to theirs, apply our 606 assumptions to it. So I need a little more time to work through that. And we just signed the deal 30 days ago, and I just need to until March to give you that quarterly spread.

是的。因此，它將成為我們經紀部門和員工福利業務的一部分。格雷格，我們認為我們不會在第一季度結束它。我們認為此時更像是第二季度的收盤。我真的沒有一個很好的季度利差，我今天會很樂意為此打電話，因為我們必須將我們的研究應用到符合他們的會計原則，應用我們的 606 假設。所以我需要更多時間來解決這個問題。我們剛剛在 30 天前簽署了協議，我只需要在 3 月份之前向您提供季度差價。

Our next questions come from the line of Michael Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的邁克爾沃德。

We heard, I guess, one of your peers about -- talk about programs participants pushing back on capacity or trying to restructure commissions. I was wondering if you're seeing something similar.

我猜，我們聽說過您的一位同行關於 - 談論計劃參與者推遲容量或試圖重組佣金。我想知道你是否看到了類似的東西。

No.

不。

Not really.

並不真地。

Not really.

並不真地。

Okay. Second one, I guess I was wondering, your deal spend has kind of accelerated over the last few months. It seems hoping you could maybe discuss the drivers behind that. And maybe talk about how you see 2023 playing out in this regard?

好的。第二，我想我想知道，在過去幾個月裡，你的交易支出有所加速。似乎希望您可以討論這背後的驅動因素。也許談談你如何看待 2023 年在這方面的表現？

We have definitely seen a change in the competitive environment vis-a-vis mergers and acquisitions in the last 60 days. I'm not going to sit here and say it's not still competitive, it is. But I would say that the number of bidders is reduced, and we are seeing maybe, what I would call, a more attentive seller to exactly who the buyer is, what the culture is, the strategic value of that buyer that maybe existed 12 months ago.

在過去的 60 天裡，我們確實看到了競爭環境在併購方面的變化。我不會坐在這裡說它仍然沒有競爭力，它是。但我要說的是，投標人的數量減少了，我們可能會看到，我稱之為賣家更關注買家是誰，文化是什麼，買家的戰略價值可能存在 12 個月前。

Yes, we usually see a little bit of an uptick in the fourth quarter as people push to get things done by the end of the year, sometimes that's driven by tax or other financial planning that the sellers want to get done. But if there is a noticeable change in the market. I would say that we feel very good about our pipeline right now. There are some names on there that are really nice to have looking at us. So a little bit of an uptick in the fourth quarter, naturally, change in market competitiveness a little bit. But I also think it's going to be pretty strong in the first couple of quarters of the year relative to what we saw this year, in particular.

是的，我們通常會在第四季度看到一點點上升，因為人們努力在年底前完成工作，有時這是受稅收或賣家希望完成的其他財務計劃的推動。但是如果市場有明顯的變化。我會說我們現在對我們的管道感覺非常好。那裡有一些名字，看著我們真的很高興。所以在第四季度有點回升，自然，市場競爭力會有所變化。但我也認為，與我們今年看到的情況相比，今年前幾個季度的表現會非常強勁。

Our next questions come from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

Maybe sticking on the M&A point. You guys seem pretty optimistic with the pipeline, and you have announced a good number of deals of late. But if I look on the CFO commentary sheet, you also write the multiples you're seeing on deals went up 1x, right, 10 to 11x from 9 to 10, what are you seeing, I guess, in the market that's driving up multiples a little bit?

也許堅持併購點。你們似乎對管道非常樂觀，並且最近宣布了很多交易。但如果我查看首席財務官的評論表，你也會寫下你看到的交易倍數上升了 1 倍，對，從 9 倍到 10 倍是 10 倍到 11 倍，我猜你在市場上看到了什麼正在推動倍數上升一點點？

I think it's mix right now is what we're seeing is -- I think that you're seeing some pretty high performing names on the list where the growth factors are a little bit bigger than maybe they were in the past. But one turn on that, it wouldn't overly react to it one way or another.

我認為現在的情況是混合的——我認為你在名單上看到一些表現相當出色的名字，其中增長因素比過去可能要大一些。但是一旦打開它，它就不會以某種方式對其做出過度反應。

And then with your margin guide for kind of the 50 to 60 basis points of expansion, are you assuming any wage inflation embedded within that guide?

然後根據您的 50 到 60 個基點擴張的保證金指南，您是否假設該指南中包含任何工資通脹？

Yes. We're assuming that we're paying raises this year about similar to what we have for the last 2 years. So that's in the numbers. Also in that, I did a little -- I did a small vignette during the December IR Day. If you really look underneath that, there's probably 10 or 15 basis points as we toggle to Software as a Service that might be against that 50 basis points, too. So maybe it's more like 60 basis points, but in the accounting of where that expense gets charged does influence that a little bit. You and I talked about that in December, I think, too.

是的。我們假設我們今年的加薪幅度與過去 2 年差不多。這就是數字。同樣在這方面，我做了一點——我在 12 月的 IR 日做了一個小插圖。如果你真的看下面，當我們切換到軟件即服務時，可能有 10 或 15 個基點也可能反對這 50 個基點。所以也許它更像是 60 個基點，但在計算費用收取的地方確實會影響一點點。我想你和我在 12 月也談過這個問題。

And then on the reinsurance side, strong into the year, great rate increases we saw at January 1, but also we've seen higher retentions by primary companies. And I don't think we've really been in a similar environment, right, where you have 40% price increases with perhaps less premium to the market. So when you put that all together, does '23 feel like an environment where you could show double-digit organic growth within your reinsurance business?

然後在再保險方面，今年表現強勁，我們在 1 月 1 日看到利率大幅上漲，但我們也看到主要公司的保留率更高。而且我認為我們並沒有真正處於類似的環境中，對吧，價格上漲了 40%，而市場溢價可能更低。因此，當您將所有這些放在一起時，'23 感覺像是一個可以在您的再保險業務中顯示兩位數有機增長的環境嗎？

Yes, I think we could.

是的，我想我們可以。

Our next questions come from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Cox 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

My first question is on the U.K. retail and specialty organic of 17%. Obviously, very strong. And I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about what's driving that growth.

我的第一個問題是關於 17% 的英國零售和專業有機食品。很明顯，很強。我只是想知道你是否可以談談是什麼推動了這種增長。

Yes. As we said, a very, very strong new business in specialty with tenant rate increases. And as we've talked earlier, there were some term changes and the like. But also our aviation specialty team just crushed it this quarter in the U.K. And our retail operation across the United Kingdom did extremely well also. But I just think the whole London-based specialty team, reinsurance aviation just is set phenomenal close to the year.

是的。正如我們所說，這是一個非常非常強大的專業新業務，租戶率增加。正如我們之前所說，有一些術語更改等。但我們的航空專業團隊本季度剛剛在英國擊敗它。我們在英國的零售業務也表現非常出色。但我只是認為整個倫敦的專業團隊，再保險航空剛剛接近這一年。

That's great. And just a question on the labor market. A number of companies are instituting layoffs. I'm just curious what type of unemployment rate is embedded in your organic guide of 7% to 9%. And if we did start to see some erosion there, at what point in the year do you think we would start to see that impact potentially in your organic growth?

那太棒了。只是關於勞動力市場的問題。許多公司正在裁員。我只是好奇你的 7% 到 9% 的有機指南中包含什麼類型的失業率。如果我們確實開始在那裡看到一些侵蝕，您認為我們會在一年中的什麼時候開始看到這種對您的有機增長的潛在影響？

Well, let me just back up to our prepared comments again. It's very, very interesting. First of all, we don't play that much in the high-tech Employee Benefit business, and it's not that big a segment for us in terms of the layoffs you're seeing that are making the newspaper. And as I've said in previous quarters, we're already in the same papers, right? And we all see the same news reports. However, our middle market, core business is doing -- our clients are doing extremely well, and we keep reporting our -- what we're seeing in our midterm endorsements and changes to policies and as we see both our renewals and the audits going forward, our middle market, retail, property casualty benefits business, these people are doing very, very well.

好吧，讓我再次回到我們準備好的評論。這非常非常有趣。首先，我們在高科技員工福利業務中發揮的作用並不大，而且就您所看到的正在製作報紙的裁員而言，這對我們來說並不是那麼大的一部分。正如我在前幾個季度所說的那樣，我們已經在同一篇論文中了，對吧？我們都看到相同的新聞報導。然而，我們的中間市場，核心業務正在做——我們的客戶做得非常好，我們不斷報告我們在中期認可和政策變更中看到的情況，以及我們看到續約和審計的進展展望未來，我們的中間市場、零售、財產傷亡福利業務，這些人做得非常非常好。

Truck counts are up. Our trucking business is very strong. Our work comp renewals in terms of payrolls are not being diminished. Now that doesn't mean that if there is, in fact, a global recession that it won't impact us, of course, it will. But at this point in time, we're not seeing that. So if you ask me where do we see an impact on that type of growth as we go forward this year. I'll tell you, our plans at present don't count on any recessionary pressure. And that could be wrong.

卡車數量增加了。我們的貨運業務非常強大。我們在工資單方面的工作補償續約並沒有減少。現在這並不意味著如果全球經濟衰退實際上不會影響我們，當然，它會。但在這個時間點，我們還沒有看到。因此，如果你問我，在我們今年前進的過程中，我們在哪裡看到對這種增長的影響。我會告訴你，我們目前的計劃並不指望任何衰退壓力。那可能是錯誤的。

Our next questions come from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 系列。

This is Andrew on for Yaron. Just looking at head count in Brokerage, it looks like there's been a pretty good pickup year-to-date and in the quarter specifically. Can we kind of talk about what's going on there? And roles you're hiring and the degree to which those hires have been reflected in organic yet?

這是 Yaron 的 Andrew。只看經紀業務的人數，今年迄今為止，特別是在本季度，似乎有一個相當不錯的回升。我們能談談那裡發生了什麼嗎？您正在招聘的角色以及這些招聘在多大程度上反映在有機中？

Yes. Well, a lot of that -- remember those numbers are impacted considerably by our M&A program. So as we close the year out strong on M&A, those numbers would be in the December numbers and not in last year's December numbers, and that would impact the quarter 2.

是的。好吧，其中很多 - 請記住這些數字受到我們的併購計劃的很大影響。因此，當我們在併購方面強勁結束這一年時，這些數字將出現在 12 月的數字中，而不是去年 12 月的數字，這將影響第二季度。

And I would want to comment on that as well. We are not undergoing an organic surge in new hiring. We have a very strong internship. We bring on a very strong number of young people every year. Of course, we're always looking for good solid production hires, but you are not seeing our organic head count surge beyond the M&A activity that Doug just mentioned.

我也想對此發表評論。我們沒有經歷新招聘的有機激增。我們有一個非常強大的實習。我們每年都會引進大量的年輕人。當然，我們一直在尋找優秀的生產人員，但除了道格剛才提到的併購活動之外，您並沒有看到我們的有機員工人數激增。

Great. And as we think about supplemental and contingent commissions, I suppose a part of that is based on underwriting profitability of those programs. So when you think about '23, is there kind of a loss trend that you bake into forward guidance there? Or maybe more broadly, what is your view on loss trends over the course of the next year?

偉大的。當我們考慮補充和或有佣金時，我認為其中一部分是基於這些項目的承保盈利能力。因此，當您考慮 23 年時，您是否將某種損失趨勢融入了前瞻性指導中？或者更廣泛地說，您對明年的損失趨勢有何看法？

Are you're talking about the carriers loss trends?

您是在談論承運人損失趨勢嗎？

Yes, our contingents.

是的，我們的特遣隊。

Right, that relates to the contingents.

是的，這與特遣隊有關。

Supplementals are not subject typically to profit-sharing arrangements, our contingents are. And to date, I'd say we probably factored nothing in, in terms of having significant increases in our operating loss ratios.

補充品通常不受利潤分享安排的約束，我們的特遣隊是。到目前為止，我想說的是，就我們的運營損失率顯著增加而言，我們可能沒有考慮任何因素。

Our next questions come from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Hughes 與 Truist 的對話。

Another P&C CEO suggested he didn't see as much increase in property rates in the fourth quarter as you might have expected in light of the reinsurance market dynamics, but maybe that's something that builds up as the time goes by is the higher reinsurance rates do directly impact the carriers. Would you share that observation? Do you think property could get firmer on the primary level?

另一位 P&C 首席執行官表示，鑑於再保險市場的動態，他認為第四季度的財產保險費率沒有像你預期的那樣大幅上漲，但也許隨著時間的推移，再保險費率越高直接影響運營商。你會分享這個觀察嗎？您認為初級房地產會變得更堅挺嗎？

I think property could get a lot firmer. I would say in the fourth quarter, it was very firm, in particular, in anything that had to do with Coastal, any area that was exposed to wind and fire. This market in terms of property is very difficult as it exists. And, yes, the changes to reinsurance at 1/1 will filter additional pressure onto the retail buyer. And we are out early telling our retail buyers about this. And it is going to get more difficult in what is already a very extremely difficult situation.

我認為房地產可能會變得更加堅挺。我要說的是，在第四季度，它非常堅定，特別是在任何與沿海有關的地方，任何暴露在風和火中的區域。就財產而言，這個市場非常困難。而且，是的，1/1 的再保險變化將過濾散戶買家的額外壓力。我們很早就把這件事告訴了我們的零售買家。在已經非常困難的情況下，它會變得更加困難。

Yes. If you think about -- remember, our fourth quarter, Ian hit right at the beginning of the fourth quarter, there were replacements that were done in October and November that hadn't had the full impact of the $70 billion loss.

是的。如果你想一想——記住，我們的第四季度，伊恩在第四季度初就命中了，在 10 月和 11 月進行的替換沒有對 700 億美元的損失產生全部影響。

Yes. Yes. And then, Pat, last quarter, you mentioned a potential spillover effect on casualty. I don't know whether you updated your commentary on that this quarter, but do you think the reinsurance market, how much of an impact, I think, it's having on casualty, [GL excess]?

是的。是的。然後，帕特，上個季度，你提到了對傷亡的潛在溢出效應。我不知道你是否在本季度更新了你對此的評論，但你認為再保險市場對傷亡的影響有多大，[GL 過剩]？

Mark, I don't have a number on that yet. I just think that it's possible that in order to pay for some of these property increases, other lines are going to have to be tagged. And I think I'll be able to feel that since it maybe have a better number around that at the end of the first quarter. And I may be wrong on that. At this point, I'm not being told by our carriers that that's happening.

馬克，我還沒有這方面的數字。我只是認為，為了支付其中一些財產增加的費用，其他線路可能必須被標記。而且我想我能夠感覺到這一點，因為它可能在第一季度末有更好的數字。我可能錯了。在這一點上，我們的運營商並沒有告訴我這正在發生。

Our final question will come from the line of Michael Ward with Citi.

我們的最後一個問題將來自花旗的邁克爾沃德。

I just had a quick follow-up maybe on Elyse's question and the potential for double-digit growth in reinsurance. Just wondering if that's kind of -- if we should think about that as being achievable with current capacity or if incremental capacity might need to come to the market in order to get there?

我只是快速跟進了 Elyse 的問題和再保險兩位數增長的潛力。只是想知道這是否是 - 我們是否應該認為這是可以通過當前容量實現的，或者是否需要增加容量才能到達市場？

I think that it will be achievable with existing capacity. I was very pleased -- our reinsurance people were telling us in late November and December, early December that they were very fearful some of these placements just weren't going to get done. And that is a nightmare on all sides of the equation. And in fact, really, really pleased and proud of the team that did the work to bring the programs together for our clients as January got going here. So I think on existing capacity, of course, the largest renewal season is now winding down. It's not over, but it's winding down. And so I do think the increases going forward could come off existing capacity. However, having said that, any additional capacity would be very welcome and will be utilized quickly and would add to that.

我認為利用現有能力是可以實現的。我很高興——我們的再保險公司人員在 11 月下旬和 12 月、12 月初告訴我們，他們非常擔心其中一些安排無法完成。這對等式的各個方面來說都是一場噩夢。事實上，真的，真的很高興和自豪的團隊，他們在一月份開始為我們的客戶整合這些項目。因此，我認為就現有容量而言，最大的更新季節當然正在結束。這還沒有結束，但它正在逐漸消退。因此，我確實認為未來的增長可能會脫離現有產能。然而，話雖如此，任何額外的容量都將非常受歡迎，並且將被迅速利用並增加。

All right. Then let me just add a few comments as I wrap up. I want to thank you again for joining us this evening. Obviously, I'm very pleased with our '22 financial performance. I am still very excited about our future. I want to thank our clients for their continued trust, our 43,000-plus colleagues for their passion, hard work and dedication. And finally, I need to mention our carrier partners. They do play an integral role in meeting our clients' insurance and risk management needs. And we look forward to speaking with you all again at our March IR Day. So thank you for being with us, and we'll talk to you then.

好的。然後讓我在結束時添加一些評論。我想再次感謝你今晚加入我們。顯然，我對我們 22 年的財務表現非常滿意。我仍然對我們的未來感到非常興奮。我要感謝我們的客戶一直以來的信任，感謝我們 43,000 多名同事的熱情、辛勤工作和奉獻精神。最後，我需要提及我們的運營商合作夥伴。他們在滿足客戶的保險和風險管理需求方面發揮著不可或缺的作用。我們期待在 3 月 IR 日再次與大家交談。所以感謝你和我們在一起，然後我們會和你談談。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您度過愉快的一天。