Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements on the Risk Factors section contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

本次電話會議期間發表的一些評論，包括對問題的回答，可能構成證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。該公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的信息或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱公司最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的有關風險因素部分的前瞻性陳述的信息，了解有關此類風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息。

In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

此外，有關本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則措施的調節以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的收益發布和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman, President and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.。加拉格爾先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our second quarter '23 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO, as well as the heads of our operating divisions.

非常感謝。大家下午好。感謝您參加我們的 23 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的首席財務官 Doug Howell 以及我們運營部門的負責人。

We had a fantastic second quarter. For our combined brokerage and risk management segments, we posted 20% revenue growth, 10.8% organic growth. And recall, we don't include interest income in our organic. If we did, our headline number would be 13.4% and over 14% if you levelize for last year's large life product sale. GAAP earnings per share of $1.48; adjusted earnings per share of $2.28, up 21% year-over-year; reported net earnings margin of 13.6%; adjusted EBITDAC margin of 30.4%, up 52 basis points.

我們的第二季度表現非常出色。對於我們的綜合經紀和風險管理部門，我們公佈了 20% 的收入增長，10.8% 的有機增長。請記住，我們的有機收入中不包括利息收入。如果我們這樣做，我們的總體數字將是 13.4%，如果您對去年的大型人壽產品銷售進行平均，則將超過 14%。 GAAP 每股收益為 1.48 美元；調整後每股收益為2.28美元，同比增長21%；報告淨利潤率為 13.6%；調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 30.4%，上升 52 個基點。

We also completed 15 mergers totaling $349 million of estimated annualized revenue. We had a terrific month to finish the quarter that fueled the upside versus our June IR debut. I could not be more pleased with our second quarter performance and how our teams all around the globe continued to deliver incredible value to our clients.

我們還完成了 15 項合併，預計年化收入總計 3.49 億美元。我們度過了一個非常棒的月份來結束這個季度，與我們六月份首次發布的 IR 相比，這推動了上行趨勢。我對我們第二季度的業績以及我們遍布全球的團隊如何繼續為客戶提供令人難以置信的價值感到非常滿意。

On a segment basis, let me give you some more detail on our second quarter performance, starting with our Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 20%. Organic was 9.7% or 12.3% if we include interest income and about 13% when levelizing for the large life product sale. Acquisition rollover revenues were $151 million. Adjusted EBITDAC growth was 23%, and we posted adjusted EBITDAC margin expansion of about 50 basis points.

在分部的基礎上，讓我向您提供有關我們第二季度業績的更多詳細信息，從我們的經紀業務開始。報告收入增長20%。如果計入利息收入，有機率為 9.7% 或 12.3%；如果對大型人壽產品銷售進行平均化，則有機率為 13% 左右。收購展期收入為 1.51 億美元。調整後 EBITDAC 增長率為 23%，調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大約 50 個基點。

Let me walk you around the world and provide some more detailed commentary on our brokerage organic. Again, the following figures do not include interest income, starting with our retail brokerage operations. Our U.S. P/C business posted 13% organic. New business production was up year-over-year, while retention was similar to last year's second quarter.

讓我帶您環遊世界，並對我們的經紀業務提供一些更詳細的評論。同樣，以下數字不包括利息收入，從我們的零售經紀業務開始。我們的美國財產險業務的有機增長率為 13%。新業務產量同比增長，而保留率與去年第二季度相似。

Our U.K. P/C business posted 11% organic due to strong new business production. Canada was up 6% organically, reflecting solid new business, similar retention versus last year and continued but somewhat more modest renewal premium increases. Rounding out the retail P/C business, our combined operations in Australia and New Zealand posted more than 10% organic. Core new business wins were excellent, and renewal premium and increases were ahead of second quarter '22 levels.

由於新業務生產強勁，我們的英國財產保險業務有機增長 11%。加拿大有機增長 6%，反映出新業務穩健、保留率與去年相似，並且續保保費持續增長，但略有放緩。我們在澳大利亞和新西蘭的綜合業務有機增長率超過 10%，令零售財產保險業務更加完善。核心新業務的勝利非常出色，續訂溢價和增幅均高於 22 年第二季度的水平。

Our global employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of about 2%. That includes a 3-point headwind from last year's life product sale. Excluding the tough compare, organic would have been about 5%, with core health and welfare up low single digits, and many of our consulting practice groups showed continued strength.

我們的全球員工福利經紀和諮詢業務的有機增長率約為 2%。其中包括去年人壽產品銷售的 3 個百分點的阻力。排除嚴格的比較，有機率約為 5%，核心健康和福利上升低個位數，而且我們的許多諮詢實踐團隊表現出持續的實力。

Shifting to our reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses. Gallagher Re posted 11% organic, another outstanding quarter by the team, building upon their excellent first quarter results. Risk Placement Services, our U.S. wholesale operations, posted organic of 10%. This includes 19% growth in open brokerage and about 6% organic in our MGA programs and binding businesses. And finally, U.K. Specialty posted organic of 19%, benefiting from excellent new business production and fantastic retention and a firm rate environment.

轉向我們的再保險、批發和專業業務。 Gallagher Re 的有機增長率為 11%，這是該團隊在第一季度出色業績的基礎上又一個出色的季度。我們的美國批發業務風險安置服務的有機增長率為 10%。其中包括開放經紀業務增長 19%，以及我們的 MGA 計劃和綁定業務有機增長約 6%。最後，英國專業公司的有機增長率為 19%，這得益於出色的新業務生產、出色的保留率以及穩定的利率環境。

Next, let me provide some thoughts on the P/C insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Global second quarter renewal premiums, which include both rate and exposure changes, were up 12%. That's ahead of the 8% to 10% renewal premium change we were reporting throughout '22 and the first quarter of '23. Renewal premium increases remain broad-based and are up across all of our major geographies.

接下來，我將從主險市場開始，談談對財產險定價環境的一些思考。第二季度全球續保保費（包括費率和風險敞口變化）增長了 12%。這領先於我們在 2022 年整個季度和 23 年第一季度報告的 8% 至 10% 的續保保費變化。續保保費的上漲仍然廣泛，並且在我們所有主要地區都有所上漲。

We're also seeing increases across most product lines. Property is up more than 20%. General liability is up about 8%. Workers' comp is up about 3%, umbrella and package are up about 11%. And most lines are trending similar or higher relative to previous quarters with two exceptions. First is public company D&O, where renewal premiums are lower versus last year; and second, cyber, which is flat to down slightly year-over-year. But to put this all in perspective, these two lines combined represent around 5% of our year-to-date brokerage revenues and thus, don't have much of an impact.

我們還看到大多數產品線的增長。房地產漲幅超過20%。一般責任上升約8%。工人薪酬上漲約3%，雨傘和包裹上漲約11%。大多數產品線的趨勢與前幾個季度相似或更高，但有兩個例外。首先是上市公司 D&O，其續保保費較去年有所下降；其次是網絡，同比持平或略有下降。但從長遠來看，這兩條線合計約占我們今年迄今為止經紀收入的 5%，因此不會產生太大影響。

So I believe the market continues to be rational, still pushing for rate where it's needed to generate an acceptable underwriting profit. Remember though, our job as brokers is to help our clients find the best coverage while mitigating price increases to ensure their risk management programs fit their budgets. So not all these renewal premium increases show up in our organic.

因此，我相信市場仍然是理性的，仍在推動需要產生可接受的承保利潤的利率。但請記住，我們作為經紀人的工作是幫助我們的客戶找到最佳的承保範圍，同時減少價格上漲，以確保他們的風險管理計劃符合他們的預算。因此，並非所有這些續保保費的增加都體現在我們的有機中。

Shifting to the reinsurance market. Overall, the June and July reinsurance renewals resulted in similar outcomes to what we saw during January renewals, with most global reinsurance lines continuing to harden. Property continues to experience the most hardening, especially cat-exposed treaties. Within the U.S., Florida property cat renewals were more orderly than January due to an early start and well-defined reinsurer appetites. Regardless, price increases were in the 25% to 40% range, causing many cedents to increase their retentions. While property capacity isn't abundant, we ultimately were able to place risk for most all of our cedents.

轉向再保險市場。總體而言，6 月和 7 月的再保險續保結果與我們在 1 月的續保期間看到的結果類似，大多數全球再保險業務繼續堅挺。財產繼續經歷最嚴厲的製裁，尤其是與貓接觸的條約。在美國，由於開始較早且再保險公司的需求明確，佛羅里達州的財產貓續保比一月份更加有序。不管怎樣，價格上漲了 25% 到 40%，導致許多分出公司增加了保留率。雖然房地產容量並不充裕，但我們最終能夠為大多數分出公司承擔風險。

As for casualty reinsurance renewals, the second quarter showed more stable supply versus demand dynamics, resulting in price increases based on product or risk-specific factors. Looking forward, carriers are likely to continue their cautious underwriting posture, given the frequency and severity of weather events, replacement cost increases and social inflation, all of which can impact current and prior accident year profitability.

至於傷亡再保險續保，第二季度的供需動態更加穩定，導致價格根據產品或特定風險因素上漲。展望未來，鑑於天氣事件的頻率和嚴重程度、重置成本增加和社會通貨膨脹，所有這些都可能影響當前和之前事故年度的盈利能力，承運商可能會繼續採取謹慎的承保態度。

Add to that rising insurance costs, and it's easy to make the case for pricing increases on most lines to continue here in '23 and perhaps throughout '24. Despite these and other inflationary cost pressures, our customers' business activity remains strong. During the second quarter, our daily indications of client business showed positive endorsements and audits. These positive policy adjustments have continued thus far in July.

再加上不斷上漲的保險成本，很容易證明大多數線路的價格上漲將在 23 年甚至整個 24 年繼續下去。儘管存在這些和其他通脹成本壓力，我們客戶的業務活動仍然強勁。第二季度，我們對客戶業務的日常指示顯示出積極的認可和審計。 7月至今，這些積極的政策調整仍在繼續。

At the same time, labor market imbalances remain. Recent data shows the U.S. unemployment rate declining, continued growth in nonfarm payrolls and a very wide gap between the amount of job openings and the number of people unemployed and looking for work, and medical cost trends are on the rise. We anticipate these costs to accelerate into '24 due to increased cost of services, more frequent high dollar claims and the impact of new therapies in specialty medications. So I see demand for our HR consulting and other benefits offerings remaining strong.

與此同時，勞動力市場失衡依然存在。近期數據顯示，美國失業率下降，非農就業人數持續增長，職位空缺數量與失業和找工作人數之間差距非常大，醫療費用趨勢呈上升趨勢。我們預計，由於服務成本增加、高額索賠更加頻繁以及特殊藥物新療法的影響，這些成本將加速進入 24 年。因此，我認為對我們的人力資源諮詢和其他福利產品的需求仍然強勁。

So when I bring this all together, as we sit here today, we are more confident with full year brokerage organic in the 8% to 9% range. And with an excellent second quarter in the books more towards the upper end of that range, posting that would be another fantastic year.

因此，當我今天坐在這裡時，當我將所有這些綜合起來時，我們對全年經紀業務有機率在 8% 至 9% 的範圍內更有信心。第二季度的業績非常出色，接近該範圍的上限，發布這將是又一個美妙的一年。

Moving on to mergers and acquisitions. We had a very active second quarter. In addition to the Buck acquisition, which I will discuss in a moment, we completed 14 new tuck-in brokerage mergers. Combined, these 15 mergers represent about $349 million of estimated annualized revenues. I'd like to thank all of our new partners for joining us and extend a very warm welcome to our growing Gallagher family of professionals.

繼續進行併購。我們的第二季度非常活躍。除了我稍後將討論的 Buck 收購之外，我們還完成了 14 項新的經紀業務合併。這 15 起合併合計預計年收入約為 3.49 億美元。我要感謝所有新合作夥伴的加入，並對我們不斷壯大的加拉格爾專業人士大家庭表示熱烈歡迎。

Moving to the Buck merger, which was completed in early April. Our integration efforts have begun, and the combined business is off to a great start. While it's still early, I'm extremely pleased with how the teams are working together and excited about our combined prospects. Looking ahead, we have a very strong merger pipeline, including nearly 55 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing more than $700 million of annualized revenue. We know that not all of these will ultimately close, but we believe we will get our fair share.

接下來是四月初完成的巴克合併。我們的整合工作已經開始，合併後的業務有了一個良好的開端。雖然現在還為時尚早，但我對團隊的合作方式感到非常滿意，並對我們的合併前景感到興奮。展望未來，我們擁有非常強大的合併渠道，包括已簽署或正在準備的近 55 份條款清單，相當於年化收入超過 7 億美元。我們知道並非所有這些最終都會關閉，但我們相信我們會得到公平的份額。

Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Second quarter organic growth was 18.1%, ahead of our expectations due to rising claim counts and continued growth from recent new business wins. These wins have been broad-based and across all of various client segments, including large corporate enterprises, public entities, insurance carriers and captives. Growth in each of our client verticals is great affirmation in our ability to tailor our client offerings, utilize industry-leading technology and ultimately deliver superior outcomes for clients across the globe.

接下來是我們的風險管理部分，Gallagher Bassett。由於索賠數量不斷增加以及近期新業務的持續增長，第二季度有機增長率為 18.1%，超出了我們的預期。這些勝利具有廣泛的基礎，涵蓋所有不同的客戶群，包括大型企業、公共實體、保險公司和自保公司。我們每個客戶垂直領域的增長都是對我們定制客戶產品、利用行業領先技術並最終為全球客戶提供卓越成果的能力的極大肯定。

Second quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin of 19.4% was very strong and at the upper end of our June expectation. Looking forward, we see full year '23 organic around 13% and adjusted EBITDAC margins pushing 20%. That would be another outstanding year.

第二季度調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 19.4%，非常強勁，處於我們 6 月份預期的上限。展望未來，我們預計 23 年全年有機利潤率約為 13%，調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率將提高 20%。那將是又一個出色的一年。

And I'll conclude with some comments regarding our bedrock culture. This past quarter, I was on the road for a month visiting employees around the globe, traveling to New Zealand, Ireland, the U.K. and the Czech Republic, and I can say that our culture is thriving, which makes me incredibly proud. Some of those conversations included the more than 500 young people in our 58th Class of the Gallagher Summer Internship.

最後我將提出一些關於我們的基石文化的評論。上個季度，我花了一個月的時間拜訪了世界各地的員工，去了新西蘭、愛爾蘭、英國和捷克共和國，我可以說我們的文化正在蓬勃發展，這讓我感到無比自豪。其中一些對話涉及加拉格爾暑期實習第 58 屆的 500 多名年輕人。

This rigorous 2-month program is an essential investment in our future, ensuring our unique culture remains strong for years to come. As we continue welcoming new colleagues and merger partners into the Gallagher fold, I'm confident that each new addition will uphold the expertise, excellence and ethical conduct that make Gallagher the name so trusted worldwide, and that is the Gallagher Way.

這個為期兩個月的嚴格計劃是對我們未來的一項重要投資，確保我們獨特的文化在未來幾年保持強勁。隨著我們繼續歡迎新同事和合併合作夥伴加入 Gallagher，我相信每一位新成員都將秉承專業知識、卓越品質和道德行為，使 Gallagher 成為全球值得信賴的品牌，這就是 Gallagher 之道。

All right. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

好的。我現在停下來，把它交給道格。道格？

Thanks, Pat. Hello, everyone. What a terrific quarter on all measures. Today, I'll walk through organic and margins by segment, including how we see the remainder of the year playing out. Then I'll provide some comments on our typical modeling helpers using the CFO commentary document that we posted on our website. And I'll conclude my prepared remarks with a few comments on cash, M&A capacity and capital management.

謝謝，帕特。大家好。從所有方面來看，這個季度都非常棒。今天，我將按部門介紹有機和利潤率，包括我們如何看待今年剩餘時間的情況。然後，我將使用我們在網站上發布的 CFO 評論文檔對我們的典型建模助手提供一些評論。我將通過對現金、併購能力和資本管理的一些評論來結束我準備好的發言。

Okay. Let's flip to Page 3 of the earnings release. All in, brokerage organic of 9.7%, that would be 12.3% if we include interest income and a little over 13% when further levelizing for last year's large life product sale. That's a bit better than what we forecasted at our IR Day in June due to a fantastic finish of the quarter across all of our divisions, especially U.S. retail and London specialty. You'll also see that contingents were up more than 20% organically. Probably a better way to look at it is in combination with supplementals because contracts can flip from time to time. Together up 12% is much more in line with our base commission and fee organic growth. So no matter which way you look at it, a fantastic organic growth quarter by the team.

好的。讓我們翻到財報發布的第三頁。總而言之，經紀業務有機率為 9.7%，如果我們包括利息收入，則為 12.3%；如果進一步平衡去年的大型人壽產品銷售，則略高於 13%。這比我們在 6 月 IR Day 上的預測要好一些，因為我們所有部門（尤其是美國零售和倫敦專業部門）在本季度都取得了出色的業績。您還會發現，特遣隊有機增長了 20% 以上。也許更好的看待它的方法是與補充材料結合起來，因為合同可能會不時發生變化。總計 12% 的增長更符合我們的基本佣金和費用有機增長。因此，無論您從哪個角度來看，該團隊的季度有機增長都非常出色。

Looking forward, we see headline brokerage organic around 9% for third quarter and about 8% for fourth quarter. It's important to recall that fourth quarter will have a tough compare because in Q4 '22, we booked a change in estimate related to our 606 deferred revenue accounting. Controlling for that, fourth quarter '23 organic would be towards 9%. We highlighted this matter last year and again at our June IR Day, so there's nothing new here. It's just a reminder as you update your models. With all that said, we remain bullish on our organic prospects for the second half. Accordingly, we now believe full year brokerage organic is looking like at the higher end of that 8% to 9% range. Again, these percentages do not include interest income.

展望未來，我們預計第三季度整體經紀業務有機增長率約為 9%，第四季度約為 8%。重要的是要記住，第四季度將進行艱難的比較，因為在 22 年第四季度，我們記錄了與 606 遞延收入會計相關的估計變更。控制這一點，23 年第四季度的有機率將接近 9%。我們去年和六月投資者關係日都強調了這個問題，所以這裡沒有什麼新內容。這只是在您更新模型時提醒您。話雖如此，我們仍然看好下半年的有機前景。因此，我們現在認為全年經紀業務有機率看起來處於 8% 至 9% 範圍的高端。同樣，這些百分比不包括利息收入。

Flipping to Page 5 of the earnings release to the Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. We posted adjusted EBITDAC margin of 32.1% for the quarter, that's up about 50 basis points over second quarter '22's FX-adjusted margin. And that came in better than our June IR Day expectation of expanding 10 basis points, mostly due to the incremental organic growth. Looking at it like a bridge from Q2 '22, organic gave us 100 basis points of expansion. Incremental interest income gave us 90 basis points of margin expansion.

翻到收益發布的第 5 頁，查看經紀業務部門調整後的 EBITDAC 表。我們公佈的本季度調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率為 32.1%，比 22 年第二季度的外匯調整利潤率高出約 50 個基點。這比我們 6 月投資者關係日預期的增長 10 個基點要好，這主要是由於有機增長的增量。將其視為 22 年第二季度的一座橋樑，有機為我們提供了 100 個基點的擴張。利息收入的增量使我們的利潤率擴大了 90 個基點。

The impact roll-in of M&A, which is mostly Buck, uses about 80 basis points. And then we also made some incremental technology investments called out around $7 million and some continued inflation on T&E called out about $5 million, which in total used about 60 basis points. Follow that bridge, and the math gets you close to that 50 basis points of FX-adjusted expansion in the quarter.

併購的影響主要是巴克，使用大約80個基點。然後我們還進行了一些增量技術投資，大約需要 700 萬美元，而一些持續的 T&E 通脹則需要大約 500 萬美元，總共使用了大約 60 個基點。沿著這座橋，數學會讓你接近本季度經外匯調整的擴張 50 個基點。

As for our margin outlook, we expect about 40 to 50 basis points of expansion for each of the next two quarters. For the -- so for the year, we are a bit more optimistic than our April and June views and now see full year margin expansion of 30 to 40 basis points or that would be 70 to 90 basis points levelizing for the roll-in impact of Buck. Again, both those percentages or increases relative to prior year FX-adjusted margins. We talked about that during our June IR Day when we provided a vignette on how to model margins. Let me give you '22 margins recomputed at current FX levels for your starting point. In Q3 '22, EBITDAC margins would have been around 31.7% versus the 32.3% we reported. And as for fourth quarter '22, not nearly as much impact, call it, around 31.3%.

至於我們的利潤率前景，我們預計未來兩個季度每個季度將擴張約 40 至 50 個基點。對於今年來說，我們比 4 月和 6 月的觀點更加樂觀，現在預計全年利潤率將擴大 30 至 40 個基點，或者將達到 70 至 90 個基點，以平衡滾動影響巴克。同樣，這些百分比或增幅均相對於上一年的外匯調整利潤率。我們在六月投資者關係日期間討論了這一點，當時我們提供了有關如何建模利潤率的小插圖。讓我為您提供以當前外匯水平重新計算的 22 個保證金作為您的起點。 22 年第三季度，EBITDAC 利潤率約為 31.7%，而我們報告的為 32.3%。至於 22 年第四季度，影響沒有那麼大，大約為 31.3%。

So now if you move to the Risk Management segment and the organic table at the bottom of Page 5 of the earnings release. Also had an excellent finish to the second quarter, 18.1% organic growth. As Pat mentioned, we continue to benefit from new business wins from the second half of '22. Looking forward, we see organic in the third quarter around 14% and fourth quarter about 10%, which reflects the lapping of last year's larger new business wins.

現在，如果您轉到收益發布第 5 頁底部的風險管理部分和有機表格。第二季度也取得了出色的成績，有機增長 18.1%。正如 Pat 提到的，我們繼續受益於 22 年下半年的新業務勝利。展望未來，我們預計第三季度的有機增長約為 14%，第四季度約為 10%，這反映了去年更大的新業務勝利的表現。

As for margins, when you flip to Page 6 and the adjusted margin EBITDAC table, risk management posted 19.4%. That was on the upper end of our 19% to 19.5% June expectation. Looking forward, we see margins above 19.5% in each of the last two quarters of '23. So full year double-digit organic and margins approaching 20%, that would lead to a record year for Gallagher Bassett.

至於利潤率，當你翻到第 6 頁和調整後的利潤率 EBITDAC 表時，風險管理的得分為 19.4%。這是我們 6 月份預期 19% 至 19.5% 的上限。展望未來，我們預計 2023 年最後兩個季度的利潤率均高於 19.5%。因此，全年有機增長率達到兩位數，利潤率接近 20%，這將為加拉格爾·巴塞特 (Gallagher Bassett) 帶來創紀錄的一年。

Now let's turn to Page 7 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. In total, adjusted second quarter came in right at the midpoint of the range we provided during our June IR Day. Even though we did experience a further $5 million of FX-related remeasurement headwinds, that cost us a couple of pennies in the quarter.

現在讓我們轉向收益發布的第 7 頁和企業部門快捷方式表。總的來說，調整後的第二季度正好位於我們在 6 月投資者關係日期間提供的範圍的中點。儘管我們確實經歷了另外 500 萬美元的與外匯相關的重新計量阻力，但這在本季度讓我們損失了幾美分。

Moving -- now let's move to the CFO commentary document. On Page 3, you'll see most of the second quarter results were in line with our June commentary. And looking ahead, you'll see that we've updated our outlook to reflect current FX rates and provide our usual modeling helpers for the second half of the year.

繼續——現在讓我們轉向 CFO 評論文件。在第 3 頁上，您會看到第二季度的大部分結果與我們 6 月份的評論一致。展望未來，您會發現我們更新了展望，以反映當前的外匯匯率，並為下半年提供常用的建模幫助。

Moving to Page 4 of the CFO commentary document and our corporate segment outlook for the second half, punchline here is not much change other than a modest weak corporate expense and interest and banking costs as we've assumed a slightly higher balance on our credit line given our robust M&A activity.

轉向首席財務官評論文件的第4 頁以及我們對下半年企業部門的展望，這裡的要點是，除了企業支出、利息和銀行成本適度疲軟之外，沒有太大變化，因為我們假設信貸額度餘額略高鑑於我們強勁的併購活動。

Then on Page 5 of the CFO commentary, that shows our tax credit carryforwards. As of June 30, we have about $700 million, which will be used over the next few years, and that sweetens our cash flow and helps us fund future M&A.

然後在首席財務官評論的第 5 頁上，顯示了我們的稅收抵免結轉。截至 6 月 30 日，我們擁有約 7 億美元，將在未來幾年內使用，這將改善我們的現金流並幫助我們為未來的併購提供資金。

Shifting to rollover M&A revenues on Page 6 of the CFO commentary document, $151 million in the quarter, with Buck contributing nearly half of that. Remember, numbers in this table only include estimates for M&A closed through yesterday. So you need to make a pick for future M&A, and you should also increase interest expense if you assume we borrow for a portion of the purchase price.

首席財務官評論文件第 6 頁轉向展期併購收入，該季度為 1.51 億美元，其中巴克貢獻了近一半。請記住，此表中的數字僅包括截至昨天完成的併購的估計。因此，您需要為未來的併購做出選擇，如果您假設我們藉入部分購買價格，您還應該增加利息支出。

One other call out, and that's back at the bottom of Page 3 of the earnings release, we did use a higher-than-normal amount of stock for tax-free exchange mergers this quarter. That can be a little lumpy, but we do like doing them. It's attractive to the sellers that are looking to defer the full tax consequence of selling their firm and it's also attractive to us because it fully aligns our new partners with our long-term shareholders.

另一項呼籲，即收益發布第三頁底部的內容，我們本季度確實使用了高於正常數量的股票進行免稅交易所合併。這可能有點麻煩，但我們確實喜歡這樣做。它對那些希望推遲出售公司的全部稅收後果的賣家很有吸引力，對我們也很有吸引力，因為它使我們的新合作夥伴與我們的長期股東完全保持一致。

As for future M&A, we remain very well positioned. At June 30, available cash on hand was more than $400 million. Our cash flows are strongest in the second half of the year, and we have room for incremental borrowing, all the while maintaining our strong investment-grade ratings. We continue to see our full year '23 M&A capacity upwards of $3 billion and another $3 billion or more in '24 without using any equity.

至於未來的併購，我們仍然處於有利地位。截至6月30日，手頭可用現金超過4億美元。我們的現金流在下半年最為強勁，我們有增量借貸的空間，同時保持強勁的投資級評級。我們預計 23 年全年的併購能力將超過 30 億美元，而 24 年在不使用任何股權的情況下，併購能力將達到 30 億美元或更多。

So another outstanding quarter by the team. from my position as CFO sitting halfway through the year, our full year '23 outlook on all measures continues to improve, better organic, better margins and a more robust M&A pipeline. Bottom line, we're in great -- we're in a great spot to deliver another record year of financial performance.

這是球隊又一個出色的季度。從我擔任首席財務官的角度來看，我們對 23 年所有指標的全年展望都在持續改善，有機結構更好，利潤率更高，併購渠道更強勁。總而言之，我們的處境非常好——我們正處於一個很好的位置，可以再創創紀錄的一年的財務業績。

Okay. Back to you, Pat.

好的。回到你身邊，帕特。

Thanks, Doug. Operator, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.

謝謝，道格。接線員，讓我們繼續提問。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question is coming from the line of Weston Bloomer with UBS.

（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Weston Bloomer。

My first question, really good strong organic growth within brokerage and around 200 basis points above what you had said, I guess, about a month ago. I was curious if you could expand on maybe what lines of businesses or geographies or maybe was the supplementals or contingents that drove that outperformance. I'm curious what we can extrapolate for the back half of the year? Or what is one-time in nature?

我的第一個問題是，經紀業務的有機增長非常強勁，比您一個月前所說的高出大約 200 個基點。我很好奇您是否可以詳細說明哪些業務或地區，或者可能是哪些補充或特遣隊推動了這種出色的表現。我很好奇我們可以對今年下半年做出什麼推斷？或者說什麼是一次性的？

Yes. I think extrapolating for the back half of the year, we feel that our look towards 9% and then 8% adjusted to 9% for the 2 quarters is probably the best way to look at what we think for the rest of the year. The upside was due to U.S. and also U.K. specialty. They just had a terrific end of June. So -- but we're seeing it across the globe. There is a noticeable uptick here in June of success in our sales and our retentions are good, and there's some positive rate movement in those numbers, too.

是的。我認為，推斷今年下半年，我們認為我們對 9% 的預期，然後將 8% 調整為 2 個季度的 9%，可能是了解我們對今年剩餘時間的看法的最佳方式。其優勢在於美國和英國的特色。他們剛剛度過了一個美好的六月底。所以——但我們在全球範圍內都看到了這種情況。六月份，我們的銷售成功率顯著上升，我們的保留率也很好，而且這些數字也出現了一些積極的利率變動。

Also, I would say, clients are getting pretty darn weary of a hard market and they're looking for good advice. And where we're finding great strong growth is in property casualty, the basic blocking and tackling, workers' comp, areas that in the United States, at least, we stand an opportunity to stand really head and shoulders above our competition, especially the little guys.

另外，我想說，客戶對艱難的市場感到非常厭倦，他們正在尋找好的建議。我們發現，在財產傷亡、基本攔截和鏟斷、工人補償等領域，我們發現了巨大的強勁增長，至少在美國，我們有機會真正領先於我們的競爭對手，尤其是在小傢伙們。

Great. And second question on M&A. I believe you said 55 term sheets for $700 million in revenue. If I kind of go back to my model, I believe that $700 million is the highest I've seen maybe away from Gallagher Re. Is that -- so could you maybe just expand, is there any shift in your M&A strategy or any like larger deals in the pipeline? Or could you maybe just expand on what you're seeing in the market more broadly as well?

偉大的。第二個問題是關於併購。我相信您說過 55 份投資意向書可帶來 7 億美元的收入。如果我回到我的模型，我相信 7 億美元可能是我見過的來自 Gallagher Re 的最高金額。那麼，您是否可以擴大規模，您的併購戰略或正在醞釀的任何類似的大型交易是否有任何轉變？或者您是否可以更廣泛地擴展您在市場上看到的內容？

I think that what we're seeing is, first of all, remember, we talk about this quite often. We don't have one individual out prospecting. We've got dozens and dozens of people that have now done deals in our company. They're out constantly talking to our competitors. The more deals we do, the more friends they have in the industry that they're telling it's working well, and they're pleased to be with us. And I think it's just a matter of straight up blocking and tackling when it comes to the typical making cold calls, talking to people, renewing relationships we've had for years, and people getting to a point where they're possibly ready to sell.

我認為我們所看到的是，首先，記住，我們經常談論這個問題。我們沒有一個人出去勘探。我們現在有幾十個人在我們公司做過交易。他們不斷地與我們的競爭對手交談。我們做的交易​​越多，他們在行業中擁有的朋友就越多，他們告訴我們，我們的業務運作良好，並且很高興與我們合作。我認為這只是一個直接阻止和解決的問題，當涉及到典型的推銷電話、與人交談、更新我們多年來的關係以及人們可能準備出售的時候。

Yes. I think they see our capabilities, and I think some of the appeal of maybe selling to a PE firm, there's some concern about that. given the increase in interest rates and the borrowing cost. There's been some stress on that side of the industry. And so we're seeing that folks are really more interested in being with a strategic now than trying to sell into a PE roll up.

是的。我認為他們看到了我們的能力，而且我認為可能出售給私募股權公司的一些吸引力，對此存在一些擔憂。鑑於利率和借貸成本的增加。該行業的這一方面存在一些壓力。因此，我們看到人們現在確實對戰略更感興趣，而不是試圖出售給私募股權公司。

Got it. It was double digit, I think, dollar million in revenue per term so I got a little excited there. And then last one, just on fiduciary, you had highlighted around 90 bps benefit in the quarter. Is that roughly what you have baked in into the back half of the year when we think about your guidance?

知道了。我認為，每學期的收入達到了兩位數數百萬美元，所以我對此感到有點興奮。最後一個，就信託而言，您強調了本季度約 90 個基點的收益。當我們考慮您的指導時，這大致是您在今年下半年所考慮的嗎？

Yes. I think that -- I think the biggest jump is here in Q2. I think in the second half of the year, you might see something like 70 basis points in the third quarter and it will give us maybe only 50 basis points of margin expansion in the fourth quarter just because rates have been popping up.

是的。我認為——我認為最大的跳躍是在第二季度。我認為在今年下半年，第三季度你可能會看到大約 70 個基點，而第四季度我們的利潤率可能只會增加 50 個基點，因為利率一直在上升。

Next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自愛麗絲·格林斯潘與富國銀行的關係。

My first question, Pat, I know when asked, you're typically willing to provide a little bit of an outlook on how you're seeing things more than just the current year. So based on how you think about things right now, how do you think -- from thinking of the brokerage business from an organic growth perspective, how do you think 2024 is shaping up?

我的第一個問題，帕特，我知道當被問到時，你通常願意提供一些關於你如何看待事情的展望，而不僅僅是對今年的看法。那麼，根據您現在對事情的看法，您如何看待——從有機增長的角度思考經紀業務，您認為 2024 年會如何？

Elyse, I think it's going to look a lot like '23. I'm not seeing any hesitation of underwriters asking for rate. I do think the cycles have shifted. When you see cyber and D&O coming down, they probably are coming down, and that's reasonable. Property through the roof is reasonable. What we're seeing in inflation in terms of lawsuit, social inflation is where they're searching for. It's very, very troubling.

Elyse，我認為它看起來很像 23 年。我沒有看到承銷商在詢問費率時有任何猶豫。我確實認為周期已經發生了變化。當你看到網絡和 D&O 下降時，它們可能也在下降，這是合理的。穿過屋頂的財產是合理的。我們在訴訟中看到的通貨膨脹，社會通貨膨脹正是他們正在尋找的地方。這非常非常令人不安。

And then you had inflation. We've been talking about inflation in this call now for over a year. And you look back into reserves and inflation really tips those into a very difficult spot, and you're not going to get those healthy in 1 year. So I feel very strong about -- and I'll tell you, our insurance companies are very -- our partners are very smart about their numbers. They know where they're making money, where they're not making money and they're telling us what they need.

然後就出現了通貨膨脹。我們在這次電話會議中討論通貨膨脹問題已有一年多了。回顧一下儲備和通貨膨脹，確實會讓這些人陷入一個非常困難的境地，而且你不會在一年內讓這些人保持健康。所以我感覺非常強烈——我會告訴你，我們的保險公司非常——我們的合作夥伴對他們的數字非常聰明。他們知道他們在哪裡賺錢，在哪裡不賺錢，並且他們告訴我們他們需要什麼。

So I don't see people backing off on that. No one is walking in saying the gates are wide open, let's just get volume. It's a reasonable market that you can get deals done at a reasonable price. Our clients actually understand inflation. They're living with it across the board. And inflation is good for a broker, honestly. So I think next year looks very, very strong.

所以我不認為人們會在這方面退縮。沒有人走進來說大門是敞開的，讓我們只關注音量。這是一個合理的市場，您可以以合理的價格完成交易。我們的客戶實際上了解通貨膨脹。他們全面接受這一點。老實說，通貨膨脹對經紀人來說是件好事。所以我認為明年看起來非常非常強勁。

And then, Doug, I know the bar was a little bit higher for the level of margin improvement this year. If '24 looks like '23 from an organic revenue growth perspective, would we see more margin improvement next year at the same level of organic that we saw this year?

然後，道格，我知道今年利潤率改善的標準有點高。如果從有機收入增長的角度來看，24 年看起來像 23 年，那麼明年我們會看到利潤率在與今年相同的有機水平上有更多改善嗎？

Well, I guess my reaction to that is going back to -- I think that you'd see some margin expansion at 6%. I don't know if you get it necessarily at 4%. I don't -- I think by the time we got up to 9%, it'd be better than 50 basis points of margin expansion. And we do have one more quarter of roll-in impact of Buck that would -- the underlying business would be going up, but that business runs a lower margin. So depending on which question you're asking me, I would think that margin expansion in '24 can be very similar to what we thought at the beginning of this year. Give us 6 points of organic, there might be 40 basis points, 50 basis points, give us 9 points of organic, you might get 75 basis points to 80 basis points out of it.

嗯，我想我對此的反應是——我認為你會看到 6% 的利潤率擴張。我不知道你是否一定會得到4%。我不認為——我認為當我們達到 9% 時，它會比利潤率擴張 50 個基點更好。我們確實還有一個季度的巴克滾滾影響——基礎業務將會上升，但該業務的利潤率較低。因此，根據您問我的問題，我認為 24​​ 年的利潤率擴張可能與我們今年年初的想法非常相似。給我們6個有機點，可能會有40個基點，50個基點，給我們9個有機點，你可能會得到75個基點到80個基點。

And then, Pat, when you're talking about price increases, are you making that comment on like a nominal basis? Or are you expecting that when you think about property casualty pricing over the balance of this year in '24 that will continue to exceed loss trend?

然後，帕特，當您談論價格上漲時，您是在名義上發表評論嗎？或者，當您考慮 24 年剩餘時間的財產傷亡定價時，您是否預計將繼續超過損失趨勢？

Well, I think that's the battle, isn't it, Elyse? I mean, the carriers are very much wanting and telling us they need that. So yes, I think that would be the objective. And we're finding that we can get it. So I do think that they're going to look at loss trends, and they're going to try to definitely keep the rate structure moving ahead of that.

好吧，我想這就是戰鬥，不是嗎，愛麗絲？我的意思是，運營商非常想要並告訴我們他們需要這個。所以，是的，我認為這將是目標。我們發現我們可以得到它。因此，我確實認為他們將關注損失趨勢，並且他們將努力確保利率結構保持領先。

And one last one. Do you have some initial thoughts on what you could see from reinsurance pricing at January 1, '24?

還有最後一張。您對 2024 年 1 月 1 日的再保險定價有何初步想法？

No, it's too early for me to comment on that, Elyse. I think we just finished July, not as big a month, obviously, as January. But interesting that the pricing was still very, very firm. The market after January 1 had a time -- had a chance to settle down and look at their books and understand January was a nightmare. So as we said in our prepared remarks, July was a little bit more orderly, but still difficult. So give me another quarter on that one.

不，我現在對此發表評論還為時過早，Elyse。我想我們剛剛結束了七月，顯然沒有一月那麼重要。但有趣的是，定價仍然非常非常堅挺。 1 月 1 日之後的市場有一段時間——有機會安定下來，看看他們的賬目，並了解 1 月是一場噩夢。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，七月有點有序，但仍然很困難。所以再給我四分之一的錢。

Our next question is coming from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場部的 Mike Zaremski。

Investment income. Is this the new run rate? It was better than expected? Or should we expect it to take another leg up, I guess, just, of course, the company is growing, too.

投資收益。這是新的運行率嗎？比預想的要好？或者我們是否應該期望它能再上一層樓，我想，當然，公司也在成長。

Listen, I think the impact on our numbers, I think that it's actually -- well, the change in margin from investment income was 90 basis points this quarter. We think it will be about 70 basis points in the third and about 50 basis points of margin expansion in the in the fourth. So to me, I would say that the actual dollar amount that you're seeing in the second quarter are not dissimilar to the dollar amounts that you would see in third and fourth quarter.

聽著，我認為這對我們的數據產生了影響，我認為實際上——嗯，本季度投資收入的利潤率變化為 90 個基點。我們認為第三季度的利潤率將擴大約 70 個基點，第四季度的利潤率將擴大約 50 個基點。所以對我來說，我想說的是，你在第二季度看到的實際美元金額與你在第三季度和第四季度看到的美元金額沒有什麼不同。

Okay. And you guys are firing on all cylinders. I'm just trying to poke some holes here. Let's see if I can.

好的。你們正在全力以赴。我只是想在這裡戳一些漏洞。讓我們看看我是否可以。

Why would do that, Mike? Give us the next quarter, will you?

為什麼要這麼做，邁克？請給我們下個季度的時間，好嗎？

Just realistic -- U.K. inflation, the stats look like it's high and there's wage pressures and some -- at least a slowing GDP outlook. How does your business look there currently? Have margins been growing as much there? Any comments on that?

現實一點——英國通脹，統計數據看起來很高，而且存在工資壓力等——至少GDP前景放緩。您目前在那裡的業務情況如何？那裡的利潤率也有同樣的增長嗎？對此有何評論？

I will say retail business is on fire, really on fire. And I give a lot of credit to the team on two areas. One, as you know, we've spent money there in terms of branding. And we did not do that for years when we were putting together our Giles, Oval, Heath. Those firms were trading under those names. We brought those together. We started talking about ourselves as Gallagher in the field. And our Rugby partnerships there and the efforts that we spent on branding have paid incredible dividends. And people know who we are now across the entire U.K., and our people are taking advantage of that.

我想說零售業很火，真的很火。我在兩個方面給予團隊很大的信任。第一，如你所知，我們在品牌方面投入了資金。多年來，當我們把 Giles、Oval、Heath 放在一起時，我們並沒有這樣做。這些公司以這些名稱進行交易。我們把這些放在一起。我們開始談論自己，即現場的加拉格爾。我們在那裡的橄欖球合作夥伴關係以及我們在品牌推廣上所付出的努力帶來了令人難以置信的回報。現在整個英國的人們都知道我們是誰，我們的人民正在利用這一點。

And I just visited -- I was in our London offices for a good part of June, I was in Dublin and Belfast. And I can just tell you this. There's a bounce in every retailer step. They're kicking a**. They're having fun. And they're taking names and getting more business for next quarter.

我剛剛訪問過——六月的大部分時間我都在我們的倫敦辦公室，我還在都柏林和貝爾法斯特。我只能告訴你這一點。零售商的每一步都會出現反彈。他們正在踢**。他們玩得很開心。他們正在記名並為下個季度爭取更多業務。

Okay. And just because Elyse asked four, I'm going to sneak in a quick one. In terms of the pricing environment, taking kind of a step up, how much do you think is due to the reinsurance cost trying to be passed through. And it sounds like you don't -- it sounds like it's not a big deal because you're saying that next year could be similar to this year. So there wouldn't be a step down. But I'm curious if you think some of the momentum is coming on the reinsurance side.

好的。正因為愛麗絲問了四個，我就偷偷塞進去一個。就定價環境而言，採取某種程度的提高，您認為有多少是由於再保險成本試圖轉嫁所致。聽起來你不這麼認為——聽起來這沒什麼大不了的，因為你說明年可能和今年類似。所以不會有任何下降。但我很好奇你是否認為再保險方面正在出現一些勢頭。

Let's be clear. I'm saying that we're being told by our carrier CEOs that they have to cover their increasing cost base. That starts with inflation in their past reserves. And if you plan to rebuild a house for $1 million 2 years ago, you're not going to spend $1 million. So they are looking at those reserves. Then secondly, they're still in the process of making sure that we get our -- the values right. These values haven't been touched for a decade. They haven't needed to be touched.

讓我們說清楚。我是說，我們的運營商首席執行官告訴我們，他們必須承擔不斷增加的成本基礎。這要從過去儲備的通貨膨脹開始。如果你計劃在兩年前花 100 萬美元重建一座房子，那麼你不會花 100 萬美元。所以他們正在關注這些儲備。其次，他們仍在確保我們獲得正確的價值觀。這些價值觀已經有十年沒有被觸及了。他們不需要被觸摸。

So now you got a value increase, you've got exposure units growth. Then you add to that the cost of reinsurance, which is clearly a cost. They're not separating it out and telling our retail clients, "Well, this part is for reinsurance." They say, "Look, guys, on this line of cover, we need 25 points, go get it." And that will hold as long as we have to, in fact, do that to get the deal done. Now remember, we are scouring the mountain -- the market for some that will do for 10 because that's our job. But right now, there's no break in that.

所以現在你的價值增加了​​，你的曝光單位也增加了。然後再加上再保險成本，這顯然是一項成本。他們不會將其分開並告訴我們的零售客戶，“嗯，這部分是用於再保險的。”他們說，“看，伙計們，在這條掩護線上，我們需要 25 分，去拿吧。”事實上，只要我們必須這樣做才能完成交易，這種情況就會持續下去。現在請記住，我們正在山上尋找一些可以賣 10 顆的東西，因為那是我們的工作。但現在，這一點還沒有中斷。

Our next question is coming from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自格雷格·彼得斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Pat and Doug, wondering have you, for a moment, talk about new business. Because when you look at the organic results, 10.8%, you look at renewal pricing, 12%. Well, you went through a bunch of lines, Pat, where pricing was clearly double digit. And so -- and you also made this comment about your clients having a budget. Just curious how much of the growth organic is rate versus exposure, existing clients versus new business? And has that balance changed at all in the last year?

帕特和道格想知道你們是否暫時談論一下新業務。因為當你查看有機結果（10.8%）時，你會查看續訂定價（12%）。帕特，你排了很多隊，價格顯然是兩位數。因此，您還對您的客戶有預算發表了評論。只是好奇有機增長的比例與曝光度、現有客戶與新業務的比例有多少？去年這種平衡有改變嗎？

Let me let Doug talk about the actual numbers because I'm more off the cuff, and then I'll come back in on how I see the market shaping up. Go ahead, Doug.

讓我讓道格談談實際數字，因為我比較即興，然後我會回來談談我對市場發展的看法。來吧，道格。

So Greg, our net new business versus lost business is up this year by 2 percentage points compared to where it was there. Rate is -- then that's the total rate and exposure is up about 1.5 points. So you can see here that it's our net -- our increased new is actually up more than the impact from rate is up.

因此，格雷格，今年我們的淨新業務與損失業務相比增加了 2 個百分點。利率是——那麼這就是總利率，曝光率上升了約 1.5 個百分點。所以你可以在這裡看到這是我們的淨值——我們增加的新產品實際上比利率上升的影響還要多。

Now let me add some color to that. Number one, we're doing a much better job, I think, than ever of measuring kind of this new business stuff that you're talking about. We know that our average production is actually increasing and the income -- the commission income receiving on new business has moved up from let's call it, $50,000, $60,000 into closer to $175,000 to $100,000. That's per item as we start bringing it in.

現在讓我為其添加一些顏色。第一，我認為，在衡量您所談論的這種新業務方面，我們比以往任何時候都做得更好。我們知道，我們的平均產量實際上在增加，收入——新業務的佣金收入已經從我們所說的 50,000 美元、60,000 美元上升到接近 175,000 美元到 100,000 美元。這是我們開始引進時的每件商品。

So we're actually finding those clients that have, for a long time, probably been pretty happy with either their local broker or their relationship with a larger broker, giving us a chance, and we're doing very, very well. We are a new business machine. And when I take a look at the percentage of trailing revenue that we try to accomplish every year new business, our goal has always been 15% of trailing. We're just about right there.

因此，我們實際上發現了那些長期以來可能對當地經紀人或與較大經紀人的關係非常滿意的客戶，這給了我們機會，而且我們做得非常非常好。我們是一個新的商業機器。當我查看我們每年嘗試完成新業務的追踪收入百分比時，我們的目標始終是追踪收入的 15%。我們就在那裡。

And as our trailing revenue growth continues, that pushes us in terms of our goals for more new business, and we are right on track with that. And when you start having 15%, 16%, 13% of trailing in new business, as long as you continue those retention levels, 94%, 95%, et cetera, you're getting very, very nice -- you're getting very nice upside.

隨著我們收入的持續增長，這推動我們實現更多新業務的目標，而我們正朝著這個方向前進。當你開始擁有 15%、16%、13% 的新業務跟踪時，只要你繼續保持這些保留水平，94%、95% 等等，你就會變得非常非常好 - 你獲得非常好的上升空間。

Yes, that's good -- those are good numbers. I think I've opened up a can of worms because we're going to want to start tracking the net new business wins you guys are posting on a quarterly basis.

是的，這很好——這些都是很好的數字。我想我已經打開了一罐蠕蟲，因為我們將要開始跟踪你們每季度發布的淨新業務勝利。

Look, I'll give you that. Go ahead and ask.

聽著，我給你那個。去問吧。

Yes. Interesting. In your comments, Pat, you also talked about -- on the theme of poking holes, right, you talked about the Employee Benefits business kind of stood out. That, and the MGA business being low single digit, mid-single-digit type of organic. Maybe I don't want to call that an underperforming, but relative to the group, I guess, it kind of is. So maybe you could spend a minute and talk about those two businesses because you called them out in your comments.

是的。有趣的。帕特，在您的評論中，您還談到了——關於找出漏洞的主題，對吧，您談到了突出的員工福利業務。 MGA 業務是低個位數、中個位數的有機業務。也許我不想稱其為表現不佳，但相對於整個團隊，我想，確實如此。因此，也許您可​​以花一點時間討論這兩項業務，因為您在評論中指出了它們。

Well, let's talk about the Benefits business first. It's adjusted for the large life case 5%. I think that's pretty in line with maybe what some of the other brokers have talked about in their employee benefit space. So I wouldn't say it's necessarily out of whack compared to what's going on. That business right now doesn't have the loss cost increases that it's going to have. I think there's going to be medical inflation in that coming up.

好吧，我們先談談福利業務。針對大生命案例調整了 5%。我認為這可能與其他一些經紀人在員工福利領域所談論的內容非常一致。所以我不會說與正在發生的事情相比，這一定是不正常的。該企業目前的損失成本並未增加。我認為接下來將會出現醫療通脹。

We're going to feed on that a lot, but by and large, medical cost inflation does have an impact. When you go back to my early days here in 2003 through 2007, you were seeing medical loss inflation -- cost inflation in the double digits, and that business was growing almost double digits also. So that will have an impact because you can't keep the inflation out of that space too much longer. So that would happen.

我們將大量依賴這些，但總的來說，醫療費用通脹確實會產生影響。當你回到 2003 年到 2007 年我剛開始工作的時候，你會看到醫療損失膨脹——成本膨脹呈兩位數，而業務也幾乎以兩位數增長。這將會產生影響，因為你無法將通貨膨脹排除在該空間之外太久。所以就會發生這種情況。

On the Program business, there's some -- you just understand how, in our case, there are some programs that if there's a change in the state or there's a change in the carrier appetite, sometimes that can cause a little bit of stress in that business. But still being in those single-digit organic ranges are still pretty (expletive) good in this environment.

在計劃業務方面，有一些 - 您只需了解，在我們的例子中，如果狀態發生變化或運營商的胃口發生變化，有時可能會導致一些壓力商業。但在這種環境下，保持在個位數的有機範圍內仍然相當（咒罵）很好。

Yes. And let me add to that, Greg, right now, our clients are dealing with wage cost inflation as people say, look, I've got -- I have a hard time buying eggs. And they are not looking to be expanding benefit offerings. In fact, they're doing everything they can to mitigate increased cost benefits, while at the same time, being able to balance what they need to give their people in their regular income. While at the same time, maintaining, as you know how difficult this is, their employee base. So it is a really tough time.

是的。讓我補充一點，格雷格，現在，我們的客戶正在應對工資成本通脹，正如人們所說，看，我有 - 我很難買雞蛋。他們也不打算擴大福利範圍。事實上，他們正在盡一切努力來減輕成本效益的增加，同時能夠平衡他們需要為員工提供的常規收入。與此同時，正如你所知，維持他們的員工基礎是多麼困難。所以這是一段非常艱難的時期。

And our consultants, our people are doing a great job. Outside of health and welfare, the effort in terms of our consulting business, the orders that are coming through are spectacular. So it's really a balance of all of that. And I agree with Doug. I think that it's a matter of them trying to deal with inflation in the cost of the cover, inflation in their compensation costs for their people and doing everything, and that's where we make our living. It's helping to mitigate that. Plan design change, getting that down. And then lastly, a lot of that, as you know, we do on a fee. So when you're facing compensation costs, inflation costs in the underlying purchase of health insurance, the last thing you're doing is giving GBS the 10% rate increase. I think by -- I think getting 5 points is pretty (expletive) good.

我們的顧問、我們的員工做得很好。除了健康和福利之外，我們在諮詢業務方面所做的努力以及收到的訂單都是驚人的。所以這確實是所有這些的平衡。我同意道格的觀點。我認為問題是他們試圖應對保險成本的通貨膨脹，他們的人民的補償成本的通貨膨脹，並儘一切努力，這就是我們謀生的地方。它有助於緩解這種情況。計劃設計變更，把它記下來。最後，正如你所知，我們做的很多事情都是收費的。因此，當您面臨賠償成本、購買健康保險所需的通貨膨脹成本時，您要做的最後一件事就是給 GBS 增加 10% 的費率。我認為——我認為得到 5 分已經相當（髒話）了。

Fair enough. Just -- I know you've provided some data -- it's just a final question, Doug. I know you provided some data around Buck and the integration. That's a business that has had sort of a checkered past of success and maybe some challenges. Maybe spend a second, and this is my last question, talking about the integration and why you think the outlook for that business is strong relative to its history?

很公平。只是——我知道你已經提供了一些數據——這只是最後一個問題，道格。我知道您提供了一些有關巴克和集成的數據。這是一家有著曲折成功歷史的企業，或許也面臨著一些挑戰。也許花一點時間，這是我的最後一個問題，談論整合以及為什麼您認為該業務的前景相對於其歷史而言是強勁的？

I'll tell you what I am really excited about that business. And I'm a quarter in, right? And we had our Board meeting yesterday, and the team that's involved in the integrating and the onboarding is reporting out to our Board as we do on our large deals every quarter. The synergies there -- first of all, the management team could not be more excited to be finding a home. They've been traded five times, and that's part of what you're talking about, Greg. You wake up and your name is not changing, but the owners are changing. And then you're changing it again. You don't know who's on first, who is on second.

我會告訴你我對這項業務真正感到興奮的是什麼。我已經四分之一了，對吧？我們昨天召開了董事會會議，參與整合和入職的團隊正在向董事會報告，就像我們每個季度對大型交易所做的那樣。那裡的協同效應——首先，管理團隊對找到一個家感到無比興奮。他們已經被交易過五次了，這就是你所說的一部分，格雷格。當你醒來時，你的名字沒有變，但主人卻變了。然後你又要改變它。你不知道誰在第一，誰在第二。

A big part of our effort of onboarding here has been to tell those people, look, you found your last place now let's go take care of clients. And there's nothing consultants like to hear more than that. So that has been a big message to them, and I spent time with those folks in the U.K. I've spent time with them here. It's resonating. Our retention of people is outstanding. And the orders we're getting in one quarter are mind boggling. So I'm really -- then you add to that, we do think there's some great synergies there, and that's not cost takeouts, that's cross-selling, seeing some of that already. And I think it's going to be just fine. And I'm one quarter in.

我們在這裡入職的很大一部分努力就是告訴這些人，看，你找到了你最後的地方，現在讓我們去照顧客戶吧。顧問們最喜歡聽到的就是這些。所以這對他們來說是一個重要的信息，我和英國的那些人一起度過了時光，我在這里和他們一起度過了時光。它產生共鳴。我們對人才的保留非常出色。我們在一個季度收到的訂單令人難以置信。所以我真的 - 那麼你補充一下，我們確實認為存在一些巨大的協同效應，這不是成本外賣，而是交叉銷售，已經看到了其中的一些。我認為一切都會好起來的。我已經四分之一了。

Next question is from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I just wanted to follow up just on the Group Benefit's organic and just on the deceleration, which still 5% is good ex the life sale comp, but that was down versus 7% in the first quarter, but it does sound like the acceleration is expected. Is that something -- is it second half expectation? Or is that something you think will start to move up higher in 2024?

我只是想跟進集團福利的有機和減速，除壽險銷售補償外，這仍然是 5%，但與第一季度的 7% 相比有所下降，但聽起來確實加速了預期的。這是下半場的預期嗎？或者您認為 2024 年會開始走高？

I wouldn't be modeling out, David, a huge acceleration there. I mean I spent a lot of time with Doug on The Street explaining why 3% organic was outstanding just a few years ago. Yes, there's also -- and I'm looking at -- I'm not looking at a business here that is accepting hard rates given the fact that there's big loss cost trends or reinsurance trends. These are people buying insurance and in many instances, not buying insurance.

大衛，我不會模擬那裡的巨大加速度。我的意思是，我花了很多時間與《華爾街日報》上的道格一起解釋為什麼 3% 有機食品在幾年前表現出色。是的，還有——我正在考慮——考慮到存在巨大的損失成本趨勢或再保險趨勢，我並不是在考慮接受硬費率的企業。這些人購買保險，但在許多情況下，他們並不購買保險。

That's the biggest part of what we do is help people self-fund. And that 5% growth is earned with a lot of discussion with a client. It's more akin to what Gallagher Bassett is getting in terms of their renewal increases rather than what you look at on the P/C side. So I'm very happy of 5%. I don't want to give you this idea that you're going to see some acceleration of 12%. That's not happening.

我們所做的最重要的部分就是幫助人們自籌資金。 5% 的增長是通過與客戶進行大量討論而獲得的。這更類似於加拉格爾·巴塞特（Gallagher Bassett）在續約增加方面獲得的結果，而不是你在 P/C 方面看到的結果。所以我很高興有5%。我不想讓你認為你會看到 12% 的加速。那並沒有發生。

That business also can be heavily first quarter weighted. So you get a little bit of that, not only do you have to recognize the full year of an account that you sell on the health and welfare side, but the consulting in the first quarter tends to be a little heavier or you grow a little bit more than -- because if you think about it, most people are 01/01 type benefit customers. So they're putting the final touches on their business in January and on some of the programs. So we tend to make a little bit more money in the first quarter.

該業務在第一季度的權重也可能很高。所以你得到一點點，你不僅要認識到你在健康和福利方面出售的帳戶的全年，而且第一季度的諮詢往往會重一點或者你成長一點比-- 因為如果你仔細想想，大多數人都是01/01 型福利客戶。因此，他們將在一月份對業務和一些項目進行最後的修改。所以我們傾向於在第一季度賺更多的錢。

Can I answer an underlying question I hear from you, David and the others, why did we do the Buck deal? It looks like its growth isn't great. It doesn't have the margins that a P/C broker does. You realize where the pain is for our clients right now, and what we are is pain mitigation people. And sure, it's in property casualty, especially in property, and we're out there working every day to help them get that down. We're bringing self-insurance plans, captive plans, group plans, what we can on the P/C side.

我能回答一下大衛和其他人從你那裡聽到的一個根本問題嗎？我們為什麼要做巴克交易？看起來成長幅度並不大。它沒有財產保險經紀商那樣的利潤。您意識到我們的客戶現在的痛苦在哪裡，而我們就是減輕痛苦的人。當然，這是財產損失，特別是財產損失，我們每天都在努力幫助他們解決這一問題。我們正在提供自我保險計劃、自保計劃、團體保險計劃，以及我們在財產保險方面所能提供的保險計劃。

And every year, year and out, our clients are dealing with how do we get people, how do we keep them? How do we pay them and how do we motivate them and at the same time take care of their benefits needs? And to get a firm like Buck on our team, one that's absolutely recognized as the best in the business, I mean it puts us over the top in that ability to respond to our clients' needs across all of what we do for them. And I think 5% is outstanding. I want to tell the team, congratulations.

年復一年，我們的客戶都在思考我們如何吸引人才、如何留住他們？我們如何支付他們的工資，如何激勵他們，同時滿足他們的福利需求？讓巴克這樣絕對被公認為業內最佳的公司加入我們的團隊，我的意思是，這使我們在滿足客戶需求的能力方面處於領先地位，我們為他們所做的一切都是如此。我認為 5% 是非常出色的。我想告訴團隊，恭喜你。

No. I appreciate that. That's helpful, Pat. And I guess just maybe just switching gears, just on the property casualty rate increases. You gave some numbers earlier. I missed -- I missed some of them. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing specifically on casualty rates. And it sounds like we're seeing an acceleration there if I just strip out D&O and workers' comp. But I'm wondering if that is, in fact, what you guys are seeing and how sustainable you guys think those -- that acceleration is?

不，我很欣賞這一點。這很有幫助，帕特。我想也許只是改變了方向，只是財產傷亡率增加了。你之前給了一些數字。我錯過了——我錯過了其中一些。我希望你能談談你所看到的具體傷亡率。如果我去掉 D&O 和工人補償，聽起來我們會看到那裡的加速發展。但我想知道這實際上是否就是你們所看到的以及你們認為這些加速的可持續性如何？

What I said in my prepared remarks, David, is that general liability is up about 8%. Workers' comp, which, as you know, has been flat to down for a number of years is up about 3%, and umbrella and package are up about 11%. So now embedded in each of those lines are different reasons. General liability is social inflation, probably aging population; workers' comp is clearly it floats with medical costs and flows with employment; and umbrella and package is probably also looking at social inflation; and property up 20% is clearly -- that's about exposure units and the need for rate.

David，我在準備好的發言中所說的是，一般責任增加了約 8%。如您所知，多年來一直持平或下降的工人薪酬上漲了約 3%，雨傘和包裹上漲了約 11%。所以現在每一行都嵌入了不同的原因。一般責任是社會通貨膨脹，可能是人口老齡化；工人報酬顯然隨醫療費用而浮動，隨就業而流動；雨傘和包裹可能也在考慮社會通貨膨脹；房地產上漲 20% 是顯而易見的——這與風險敞口單位和利率需求有關。

Yes, David, I look at it, if you want to break it down, general liability and other casualty, call that 8% to 9% is what we're seeing here on the sheet. Commercial auto is 8.5% or more, and that's U.S. business that I'm telling you about. So I think in the second quarter, call it, 8% to 9% on casualty.

是的，大衛，我看看，如果你想細分一下，一般責任和其他傷亡，我們在表格上看到的就是 8% 到 9%。商用汽車是8.5%或更高，這是我告訴你的美國企業。所以我認為第二季度的傷亡率將達到 8% 到 9%。

Got it. And those did tick up versus 1Q, it sounds like?

知道了。與第一季度相比，這些確實有所上升，聽起來像？

A little bit.

一點點。

Yes, especially commercial auto is more around 6%, and now it's 8.5%.

是的，特別是商用車更多的是6%左右，現在是8.5%。

Got it. And then could you just level set me if I think about full year the business, the Gallagher rates in brokerage, how much of that is coming from property at this point?

知道了。然後，如果我考慮一下全年的業務，經紀業的加拉格爾利率，目前其中有多少來自房地產，你能告訴我嗎？

Property is our largest line. Doug, you have that number?

房地產是我們最大的產品線。道格，你有那個號碼嗎？

What was the specific question, sorry.

具體問題是什麼，抱歉。

How much of our business is property?

我們的業務有多少是房地產？

About 30% here in the -- for the full year '22. That's about 30% of what we write.

22 年全年大約佔 30%。這大約是我們所寫內容的 30%。

Our next question is from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的馬克·休斯 (Mark Hughes)。

Pat, you talked about the medical inflation you think is going to accelerate. Given that the broader measures of medical costs are pretty calm these days, I wonder what gives you confidence that, that's going to happen.

帕特，您談到了您認為將會加速的醫療通脹。鑑於目前更廣泛的醫療費用衡量標準相當平靜，我想知道是什麼讓您相信這將會發生。

I don't know if I'd say it's confidence, Mark, I mean I'm not so sure it's good news for the society or for our clients, but social inflation, medical malpractice costs cover and any kind of losses in that regard and the cost of employees. Hospitals right now are working very hard to make sure that their people stay with them. Their turnover rates with the pandemic and the like have increased. Keeping their employees is a big deal, and the cost of doing that.

我不知道我是否會說這是信心，馬克，我的意思是我不太確定這對社會或我們的客戶來說是個好消息，但社會通貨膨脹、醫療事故費用以及這方面的任何損失以及員工成本。醫院現在正在非常努力地確保他們的病人留在他們身邊。他們因疫情等原因的流動率有所增加。留住員工是一件大事，而且這樣做的成本也很大。

Specially drugs.

特別是藥物。

And specially -- Bill's helping me out here, specially drug costs and procedures are up significantly.

特別是 - 比爾在這裡幫助我，特別是藥物成本和程序顯著增加。

The next question is from the line of Katie Sakys with Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Katie Sakys。

I wanted to follow up a little bit on the line of questioning on Buck. And clearly, an acquisition that definitely expands your ability to serve your clients with your portfolio. Kind of thinking about what you guys have seen in the first quarter of integration so far. Is there any opportunity to tighten up the drag or the impact that Buck has on brokerage margins over the back half of the year? Any opportunities you guys are seeing to increase cross-sells or maybe find some expense synergies? Or should we kind of expect that to materialize more in 2024?

我想稍微跟進一下對巴克的詢問。顯然，這次收購肯定會增強您通過產品組合為客戶提供服務的能力。想一想你們在第一季度迄今為止的整合中所看到的情況。下半年是否有機會加強巴克對經紀商利潤率的拖累或影響？你們認為有什麼機會可以增加交叉銷售或找到一些費用協同效應嗎？或者我們是否應該期望這種情況在 2024 年會更多地實現？

I think it's more '24. Go ahead, Doug.

我認為這更像是'24'。來吧，道格。

Yes. I would say '24. '23, we're still getting our feet under us. But also, I'd like to -- as a friendly amendment to the statement, so that roll-in natural impact of a business that's just -- it just runs naturally slightly lower margin, call it, in the 20s somewhere versus in the 30s, right? So the drag on us is what you see on the face of it, but they actually have a nice improvement opportunity as we join forces together to get better themselves. And that's really what we're looking at.

是的。我會說'24。 '23，我們仍然站穩腳跟。而且，我還想——作為對聲明的友好修正，這樣就可以產生業務的自然影響——它的利潤率自然會略低，稱之為，在20 年代的某個地方，而不是在20 年代。 30多歲吧？所以我們的拖累是表面上看到的，但當我們共同努力讓自己變得更好時，他們實際上有一個很好的改進機會。這正是我們所關注的。

If we can take this business that's in the upper teens and move it into the mid-20s, I think that's a good march for that business. And I think Pat said it best. They broke through five different owners. They have spent so much of their time in the last couple of recent roles of becoming a freestanding independent organization. And there's extra cost that goes into that. By being a part of us and us being better together, I think we'll naturally see that natural improvement in their underlying margins. So they should be margin accretive after you get to -- as they improve their margins, they will improve our margins once we get through the first quarter of '24.

如果我們能夠將這個十幾歲左右的業務提升到二十幾歲左右，我認為這對該業務來說是一個很好的進步。我認為帕特說得最好。他們突破了五個不同的主人。他們花了很多時間在最近的幾個角色上，以成為一個獨立的獨立組織。這會產生額外的費用。通過成為我們的一部分並且我們一起變得更好，我認為我們自然會看到他們的潛在利潤自然改善。因此，當他們提高利潤率後，他們應該會增加利潤率，一旦我們度過了 24 年第一季度，他們就會提高我們的利潤率。

And then, Katie, to your point about cross-selling, let's be clear. We do see cross-selling opportunities, P/C to Benefits, Benefits to P/C for sure. But where we see -- what we're very excited about is cross-selling inside Gallagher Benefit Services. Their strength in the United States is in areas that were not as strong. We've always been in defined benefit pension consulting, for instance, but they come with terrific strengths there.

然後，凱蒂，對於你關於交叉銷售的觀點，讓我們澄清一下。我們確實看到了交叉銷售機會，P/C 到福利，福利到 P/C 的機會。但我們看到 - 我們非常興奮的是加拉格爾福利服務內部的交叉銷售。他們在美國的實力是在那些不那麼強的領域。例如，我們一直從事固定福利養老金諮詢業務，但他們在這方面擁有巨大的優勢。

And they're not probably as strong, although they do quite well, but not probably as strong as we've been in health and welfare. So if you take a look at that, now you're -- you're not trying to talk to a new party at a client, you're already dealing with the person who buys benefits, "Let me bring in my partner who does health and welfare." And we're already seeing a lot of that. So I think there is good cross-selling. I think that margin improvement will come, and I'm excited about it.

儘管他們做得很好，但他們可能沒有我們那麼強大，但在健康和福利方面可能沒有我們那麼強大。因此，如果你看一下，現在你不是在嘗試與客戶的新方交談，你已經在與購買福利的人打交道，“讓我引入我的合作夥伴，他做健康和福利。”我們已經看到了很多這樣的情況。所以我認為交叉銷售是很好的。我認為利潤率將會改善，對此我感到很興奮。

And then one more question on the outlook for risk management. So sorry, just one more question on risk management. Doug, your comments seem to imply a little bit of a sequential slowdown in organic on the back half of the year, adjusting for lapping last year's exceptional outperformance. I'm just kind of curious, is there anything you'd call out on that 14% and 10% organic growth guide that might be a slight headwind to growth as the year wraps up?

然後還有一個關於風險管理前景的問題。很抱歉，還有一個關於風險管理的問題。道格，你的評論似乎暗示今年下半年有機增長會出現一些連續放緩，並對去年的出色表現進行了調整。我只是有點好奇，您對 14% 和 10% 的有機增長指南有何建議，認為這可能會在今年結束時對增長產生輕微的阻力？

Just the nature of this business, if you look at it over the last 20 years is that you can get some pretty large clients that roll in to your business, and they don't come as steady as, let's say, a smaller clients might do. So if you sell the likes of large U.S. Corporation Act, and you sell them in the fourth quarter last year, you're going to get the benefit in the fourth quarter, first, second and third and then you got to lap yourself in the fourth. So it's more the timing of new business on larger accounts that's causing that.

如果你回顧一下過去 20 年的情況，這個行業的本質就是，你可以吸引一些相當大的客戶加入你的業務，但他們的穩定程度並不像小客戶那樣穩定。做。因此，如果你出售美國大型公司法之類的東西，並在去年第四季度出售它們，那麼你將在第四季度、第一、第二和第三季度獲得收益，然後你就必須在第四。因此，造成這種情況的原因更多是大客戶的新業務時機。

But if you stack it up 18% this quarter, and if you think 14% and 10%, when you get down to the end of the year, you're talking some nice -- whether the 13% organic growth in that business. And then we do have some nice larger clients on the drawing board right now that we're proposing on. I don't know if they'll hit in the fourth quarter or they'll hit in the second or third quarter. It takes a year or two to sell these larger accounts. So it's just a little bit more naturally lumpy on a quarter-by-quarter basis. So I would encourage you to look at it on an annual basis. And if you think about what they did last year and then you're looking at this year at 13%, there's actually a sequential step up on an annual basis.

但如果你本季度增長 18%，如果你認為是 14% 和 10%，那麼當你到年底時，你就會說得不錯——無論是該業務 13% 的有機增長。然後我們現在確實有一些不錯的大客戶正在籌劃中，我們正在提議。我不知道他們是否會在第四節擊球，或者他們會在第二節或第三節擊球。出售這些較大的賬戶需要一兩年的時間。因此，它只是在逐季度的基礎上更加自然地起伏不定。因此，我鼓勵您每年查看一次。如果你想想他們去年做了什麼，然後你看看今年的 13%，你會發現實際上每年都有連續的上升。

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 和 KBW 的產品線。

Same question from two perspectives. Are your clients dealing with affordability issues. And I'm asking that in the context of what you said about pricing legitimately needing to go up. And I'm wondering how much of that can client -- how much more of that can clients take? And is that going to shift sort of the revenues that you get from commissions as opposed to captive management or something like that?

從兩個角度看同樣的問題。您的客戶是否正在處理負擔能力問題？我是在你所說的合理需要上漲的價格的背景下問這個問題的。我想知道客戶可以接受多少——客戶還可以接受多少？這是否會改變你從佣金中獲得的收入，而不是自保管理或類似的收入？

Yes. And that's one of the things that gets us excited because that's the genesis of our growth. That's what took us to a place where we could get public in '84. We are the people that help folks deal with untenable situations and turn them basically into risk management approaches, it's called larger tensions. We do that in a number of ways, whether it's by line, by state, whether it's by putting someone into a self-captive, whether it's just finding them a pool to be part of, that is a real defining aspect of Gallagher's capabilities. You know that.

是的。這是讓我們興奮的事情之一，因為這是我們成長的根源。這就是我們在 84 年得以上市的原因。我們是幫助人們處理難以維持的情況並將其轉化為風險管理方法的人，這被稱為更大的緊張局勢。我們通過多種方式做到這一點，無論是按路線、按州，無論是讓某人自我束縛，還是只是為他們找到一個可以加入的群體，這都是加拉格爾能力的真正決定性方面。你懂的。

Okay. Perfect. Yes. I know that conceptually, I'm just trying to -- I'm trying to digest the idea of how much more insured can take. I'm just trying to get my head around that, which may be at odds with what underwriters actually need for rate.

好的。完美的。是的。我知道，從概念上講，我只是想——我想消化受保人可以承受多少的想法。我只是想弄清楚這一點，這可能與承銷商實際需要的費率不一致。

Meyer, I think you have to look at it this way, what percentage of a customer's budget really is spent on insurance? And let's say some of the averages are 3%, 4%, 5% of what their total budget they're spending on insurance. So this isn't 30% of their cost structure. So how much more can customers take in terms of us? Our job is to make that as small as possible. Let's never ever forget that. That's what we do day in and day out. But how much more can they take? Well, if their loss experience is bad, they're going to have to take some more.

邁耶，我認為你必須這樣看，客戶預算中真正花在保險上的百分比是多少？假設有些人的保險支出平均值為總預算的 3%、4%、5%。所以這並不是他們成本結構的 30%。那麼對於我們來說，客戶還能承受多少呢？我們的工作是使其盡可能小。我們永遠不要忘記這一點。這就是我們日復一日所做的事情。但他們還能承受多少呢？好吧，如果他們的損失經歷很糟糕，他們將不得不承受更多。

Well, also, if I remember, this is not anti underwriter. Underwriters are happy to have us help clients move away from loss to them. If there's more self-assumption and they pick up an excess placement at the right rate, they're happy. It's not like they say, "Oh my God, you ripped all this premium away from me." They understand the partnership. So we're counseling on, "Look, take more rate, make it easier for that carrier to participate in this at the right place on this coverage map and we'll be able to give the limits you want but you got to take more skin in the game." That's all. And that, I think, is what we do better than anybody.

好吧，如果我記得的話，這不是反承銷商。承保人很高興讓我們幫助客戶擺脫損失。如果有更多的自我假設，並且他們以適當的價格獲得了額外的安置，他們會很高興。這不像他們說的那樣，“天啊，你把我所有的溢價都奪走了。”他們了解這種夥伴關係。因此，我們建議，“看，採取更多費率，讓該運營商更容易在覆蓋地圖上的正確位置參與此活動，我們將能夠提供您想要的限制，但您必須採取更多參與遊戲。 ”就這樣。我認為，這就是我們比任何人都做得更好的地方。

Okay. That's tremendously helpful. The same question on the reinsurance side. We've got property rates going up pretty dramatically. Is Gallagher Re telling its property clients that they should be buying more reinsurance in 2024 than they did in 2023?

好的。這非常有幫助。再保險方面也有同樣的問題。我們的房地產價格大幅上漲。 Gallagher Re 是否告訴其房地產客戶，他們在 2024 年應該比 2023 年購買更多的再保險？

I'd tell you what, what I'm impressed with our reinsurance people, and it's way more sophisticated than I am, frankly, but they are the best in the world at capital management with their clients. And this isn't a matter of us going in and talking to the local contractor that doesn't know what I'm going to do with a big time property increase or something like that. These are sophisticated buyers. They see it coming. We know how to balance their portfolio. And really, the advice Gallagher Re gives is not just buy it, it's all about -- and again, I mean this is one of the things that's exciting to me in terms of my learnings with Gallagher Re is that they are right at the crux of helping these clients manage their capital.

我想告訴你的是，我們的再保險人員給我留下了深刻的印象，坦率地說，他們比我複雜得多，但他們在客戶資本管理方面是世界上最好的。這不是我們進去與當地承包商交談的問題，他們不知道我將如何處理大規模的財產增加或類似的事情。這些都是精明的買家。他們看到了它的到來。我們知道如何平衡他們的投資組合。事實上，Gallagher Re 給出的建議不僅僅是購買它，而是關於——再說一次，我的意思是，就我從Gallagher Re 學到的東西而言，這是令我興奮的事情之一，那就是它們正處於關鍵位置幫助這些客戶管理他們的資本。

Okay. And then one more final question, if I can, just because you talked about medical cost inflation. Is the medical cost inflation that you're anticipating on the, call it, consulting side, is that manifesting itself at all in workers' compensation claims that Gallagher Bassett processing?

好的。最後一個問題，如果可以的話，只是因為你談到了醫療費用通脹。您在諮詢方面所預期的醫療費用上漲是否在加拉格爾·巴塞特處理的工人賠償索賠中得到了體現？

Sure. Yes, absolutely. I mean a big part of workers' comp is medical-only, and that's escalating every month. It's our job to help mitigate that, just like we do on the employee benefit side. Use of managed care is very, very important.

當然。是的，一點沒錯。我的意思是，工人薪酬的很大一部分僅用於醫療，而且每個月都在增加。我們的工作就是幫助減輕這種情況，就像我們在員工福利方面所做的那樣。使用管理式醫療非常非常重要。

You'll see greater growth in expert adjusting in services and Gallagher Bassett as medical cost inflation hits that, too. Clients will look to a Gallagher Bassett to help them reduce their total cost of risk. And when medical inflation goes up, they will be clamoring for Gallagher Bassett Services.

隨著醫療費用的上漲，你會看到服務和加拉格爾·巴塞特的專家調整有更大的增長。客戶將尋求加拉格爾·巴塞特來幫助他們降低總風險成本。當醫療通脹上升時，他們會強烈要求加拉格爾·巴塞特服務。

And that's part of making sure we give -- we deliver the best outcomes.

這是確保我們提供最好結果的一部分。

Our final question is from the line of Michael Ward with Citi.

我們的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克爾·沃德 (Michael Ward)。

I was just wondering on the M&A pipeline that you're talking about in the beginning. Is that -- would you say that's skewed to P&C? Or could there be employee benefits in there, too.

我只是想知道你一開始談到的併購渠道。你會說這偏向財產與意外險嗎？或者那裡也可能有員工福利。

Well, there'll be both. Yes, we keep a good strong pipeline on both. No, we're not going to have another Buck on that list. I mean, Buck is one of the biggest players in that industry. It clearly moves us up in the ranking substantially. But there are plenty of smaller practitioners we'd love to have on board. Our tuck-in acquisition process has been benefits forever along with P&C. So that's not a new thing, and there's lots of activity in that regard.

嗯，兩者都會有。是的，我們在這兩個方面都保持著良好而強大的渠道。不，我們不會再有另一個巴克出現在這個名單上。我的意思是，巴克是該行業最大的參與者之一。這顯然使我們的排名大幅上升。但我們希望有很多規模較小的從業者加入。我們的收購流程與 P&C 一起永遠受益。所以這並不是什麼新鮮事，這方面有很多活動。

Yes. I think fundamentally, any smaller brokerage business that finds that they need more capabilities, whether it's P&C or Benefits, it's the same decision by the owners of those businesses. They just think that they can use -- join us. Together we'll be better as we service those clients. And the capabilities they can get from us, they'll get it from whether it's wholesale, whether it's retail, whether it's benefit, even in Gallagher Bassett as they have specialty acquisitions there. If it's -- as the owners, it's the same reason they're selling themselves is because they need capabilities, and they think Gallagher is the right place to get those capabilities.

是的。我認為從根本上來說，任何規模較小的經紀業務發現他們需要更多的能力，無論是財產險還是福利，這些業務的所有者都會做出同樣的決定。他們只是認為他們可以加入我們。當我們為這些客戶提供服務時，我們將共同做得更好。他們可以從我們這裡獲得的能力，他們將從批發、零售、效益中獲得，甚至在加拉格爾巴塞特（Gallagher Bassett），因為他們在那裡進行了專業收購。如果是的話——作為業主，他們出售自己的原因是一樣的，因為他們需要能力，而且他們認為加拉格爾是獲得這些能力的正確地方。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe in terms of -- internally, in terms of your own wage sort of inflation monitoring. Just curious if that has calmed down a little bit as inflation overall has slowed down.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後也許是在內部方面，在你自己的工資方面進行通貨膨脹監控。只是好奇隨著整體通脹放緩，情況是否有所平靜。

Yes. Here's the thing. We didn't see the great resignation that you've read about in the papers. We've talked about that quite a bit. We were very fair with our employees on the amount of raised pools that we've given. Those raised pools are larger in '22 and '23 than they were in '18 and '19 on a per employee basis. So we've recognized that there are some costs that our employees have to bear. And so we think that the raises we've given them have been very fair and have acknowledged the inflation and the environment.

是的。事情是這樣的。我們沒有看到您在報紙上讀到的偉大辭職。我們已經談過很多了。我們對員工提供的籌集資金數額非常公平。按員工人數計算，22 年和 23 年籌集到的資金比 18 年和 19 年更大。因此，我們認識到我們的員工必須承擔一些成本。因此，我們認為我們給他們的加薪是非常公平的，並且承認了通貨膨脹和環境。

We haven't really sat down to plan for next year yet to see where we'd be in those raised pools. But obviously, it would be fair with our folks. But as you see, some of the inflation numbers are cooling down on what it costs to live. But by and large, I think that we've been very fair. We -- throughout our history, we have given raises every single year that I've been at Gallagher, and we recognize the importance of our employees to do that. So we haven't seen a big stress on that.

我們還沒有真正坐下來計劃明年的計劃，看看我們在這些籌集的資金池中會處於什麼位置。但顯然，這對我們的同胞來說是公平的。但正如你所看到的，一些通貨膨脹數據正在冷卻生活成本。但總的來說，我認為我們非常公平。縱觀我們的歷史，我在加拉格爾工作的每一年，我們都會加薪，我們認識到員工這樣做的重要性。所以我們沒有看到這方面有很大的壓力。

Our next question is from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Scott Heleniak。

Just a quick question on the risk management side. Wondering if you could give a little detail on the claims count differences and changes, both claims count and severity and kind of what you're seeing versus either recent quarters or year-over-year? And I guess I'm more interested -- I know you touched on it a little bit, just on some of the casualty lines and workers' comp and liability and kind of what you're seeing there in terms of the counts and the average claim size that you're handling at Gallagher Bassett?

只是一個關於風險管理方面的簡單問題。想知道您是否可以提供有關索賠數量差異和變化的一些詳細信息，索賠數量和嚴重程度以及您所看到的與最近幾個季度或同比相比的情況？我想我更感興趣——我知道你稍微觸及了這一點，只是涉及一些傷亡人數、工人的補償和責任，以及你在計數和平均值方面看到的內容您在 Gallagher Bassett 處理的索賠尺寸？

All right. So three things on there. First, when you look at it, we were seeing more COVID claims last year, and that's basically gone to very little at this point, yet we still grew through that. Kind of existing customers, we consider the claims are rising for our existing customers to be flattish, maybe up a little bit. Now that was a trend that we were seeing also when you go back pre pandemic because as workplaces get safer and safer.

好的。那裡有三件事。首先，當你看到它時，我們去年看到了更多的新冠病毒索賠，而目前基本上已經很少了，但我們仍然在這方面取得了增長。就現有客戶而言，我們認為現有客戶的索賠正在上升，但持平，甚至可能上升了一點。現在，當你回到大流行前時，我們也看到了這種趨勢，因為隨著工作場所變得越來越安全。

So it's really the success that you're seeing in the organic is really our new business and excellent retention. So that kind of tells you, flattish from existing customers growing through the loss of COVID claims and conservatively better new business and better retention. What are we seeing for severity? Within that, severity is going up. There's no question. On average as a percentage, I don't know if it's 5% or 7%, but overall, something like that.

因此，您在有機領域看到的成功實際上是我們的新業務和出色的保留率。因此，這告訴你，由於新冠索賠的損失以及保守地說更好的新業務和更好的保留，現有客戶的增長持平。我們看到的嚴重性是什麼？其中，嚴重性正在上升。毫無疑問。平均百分比，我不知道是 5% 還是 7%，但總體來說是這樣。

Okay. That's helpful detail. And then just another question on the M&A pipeline since it was so significant compared to recent quarters. Just wondering if you can also just talk about or comment on how much of that is -- how much of the trend you're seeing is international versus domestic. I'm not looking for a specific breakdown, but anything you can share there on are you continuing to look at a lot more international deals than you had over the past few years?

好的。這是有用的細節。然後是關於併購渠道的另一個問題，因為與最近幾個季度相比，它是如此重要。只是想知道您是否也可以談論或評論其中有多少——您所看到的趨勢有多少是國際趨勢與國內趨勢。我並不是在尋找具體的細分，但您可以在那里分享的任何內容，您是否繼續關注比過去幾年更多的國際交易？

our international pipeline is pretty steady. It's -- the majority of what we're looking at is U.S. domestic.

我們的國際管道相當穩定。我們所關注的大部分內容都是美國國內的。

Yes. Okay. And then finally, any earlier read on July renewal premium? I know it's probably a little bit early, but how that's comparing to the 12%? Or is it just too early on that?

是的。好的。最後，有沒有關於七月續保保費的早期讀物？我知道這可能有點早，但是與 12% 相比怎麼樣？或者現在還為時過早？

Our July numbers are better than our June numbers. I looked at the overnight from last year, and there is a noticeable difference. Now July is not over. A lot of your activity happens in the last week here. But right now, our early reads month-over-month is there another step up.

我們 7 月的數據好於 6 月的數據。我看了看去年的過夜，有明顯的不同。現在七月還沒有結束。您的很多活動都發生在上週。但現在，我們的早期閱讀量逐月上升。

The final question is a follow-up from Weston Bloomer with UBS.

最後一個問題是瑞銀韋斯頓·布魯默 (Weston Bloomer) 的後續提問。

Are you guys disclosing what free cash flow was in the 2Q? Or any updates on the level maybe as a percent of revenue that you're expecting for full year as you integrate Buck or given the strong 2Q.

你們有透露第二季度的自由現金流嗎？或者，當您整合巴克或考慮到強勁的第二季度時，該水平的任何更新可能佔您預期全年收入的百分比。

Well, Q2 is our notoriously smallest quarter because that's when we pay out all of our incentive compensation we paid out in April. So the Q2 is our smallest. The second half of the year is the largest as a percentage. You all toil in that -- those numbers more than we do. That's just not really how we look at it. The fact is our cash flows closely track to our EBITDA growth. As you know, that because our tax credits, our tax load as a percentage of our EBITDAC is usually somewhere in the 8% range. Our CapEx is pretty consistent with prior year. So you don't have a significant change in that.

嗯，第二季度是我們出了名的最小的季度，因為那時我們支付了 4 月份支付的所有激勵薪酬。所以 Q2 是我們最小的。下半年佔比最大。你們都在這方面付出了努力——這些數字比我們還要多。我們實際上並不是這麼看的。事實上，我們的現金流與 EBITDA 的增長密切相關。如您所知，由於我們的稅收抵免，我們的稅收負擔佔 EBITDAC 的百分比通常在 8% 左右。我們的資本支出與去年相當一致。所以你在這方面沒有重大改變。

So the only thing that really kind of impacts our cash flows different than EBITDA would be a little bit of taxes, a little bit -- a little growth in CapEx. And then obviously, if we're paying integration costs, some of those will go out in cash to on that. But right now, we track close -- our cash flows track very close to what our EBITDA is. So the growth in the EBITDAC is pretty much so what you're going to see in the growth in our cash flows.

因此，唯一真正對我們的現金流產生不同於 EBITDA 的影響的是一點點稅收，一點點——資本支出的一點點增長。顯然，如果我們支付整合成本，其中一些將以現金形式支付。但現在，我們的現金流非常接近我們的 EBITDA。因此，EBITDAC 的增長與我們現金流的增長幾乎是一樣的。

Got it. And then maybe ex integration cost, is Buck maybe cash flow neutral or maybe slightly cash flow negative just given the lower margin there?

知道了。然後，也許除整合成本外，考慮到利潤率較低，巴克的現金流是否可能是中性的，或者可能是輕微的現金流負值？

It's cash flow positive. I mean we're not spending that much on integration on this acquisition. So I would say over 3 years, I think we're going to spend $125 million, something like that. And it throws off cash flows in excess of that.

現金流為正。我的意思是，我們並沒有在這次收購的整合上花費太多。所以我想說，在 3 年內，我認為我們將花費 1.25 億美元，類似的費用。它造成的現金流量超過了這個數字。

It's a great business. Thanks for being with us this evening, everybody. I really appreciate you joining us. I think you could probably tell that myself and the team are extremely pleased with our second quarter performance. We're reflecting on full year '23 financial outlook relative to our early thinking. It has improved on every measure. As we sit here today, we remain very bullish on the second half. And most importantly, to our more than 48,000 colleagues around the globe, thank you for all of you do day in and day out, I believe our continued financial success is a direct reflection of our people and our culture. Thank you very much. We look forward to speaking with you again at our IR Day in September. Thanks for being with us.

這是一項偉大的事業。謝謝大家今晚和我們在一起。我真的很感謝你加入我們。我想你可能會看出我自己和團隊對我們第二季度的表現非常滿意。我們正在根據我們的早期想法反思 23 年全年的財務前景。它在每一項措施上都有所改進。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們仍然對下半年非常樂觀。最重要的是，對於我們全球 48,000 多名同事，感謝你們所有人日以繼夜的努力，我相信我們持續的財務成功直接反映了我們的員工和文化。非常感謝。我們期待在九月的投資者關係日再次與您交談。感謝您與我們在一起。

This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。