以星航運 (ZIM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

My name is Christa, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ZIM Integrated Shipping Services third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加以星綜合航運服務公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And I would now like to turn the conference over to Elana Holzman, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Elana Holzman。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and welcome to ZIM's third quarter 2024 financial results conference call.

謝謝業者，歡迎參加以星 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。

Joining me on the call today are Eli Glickman, ZIM's President and CEO; and Xavier Destriau, ZIM's CFO.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是以星 (ZIM) 總裁兼執行長 Eli Glickman；以及以星集團財務長 Xavier Destriau。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events or results.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將就期望、預測、預測或未來事件或結果做出前瞻性陳述。

We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable.

我們相信我們的期望和假設是合理的。

We wish to caution you that such statements reflect only the company's current expectations and that actual events or results may differ, including materially.

我們希望提醒您，此類陳述僅反映公司目前的預期，實際事件或結果可能有所不同，包括重大差異。

You are kindly referred to consider the risk factors and cautionary language described in the documents the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 2023 annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC in March 2024.

請您考慮本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險因素和警示性語言，包括我們於 2024 年 3 月向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2023 年年度報告 20-F 表格。

We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to ZIM's CEO, Eli Glickman.

現在，我想將電話轉給 ZIM 執行長 Eli Glickman。

Eli?

伊萊？

Thank you, Elana, and welcome, everyone.

謝謝你，埃拉娜，歡迎大家。

We are proud with ZIM's strong performance in the third quarter, in which we again delivered record carried volume as well as exceptional profitability, which underline our strong financial results.

我們對以星第三季度的強勁表現感到自豪，我們再次實現了創紀錄的持倉量和卓越的盈利能力，這凸顯了我們強勁的財務業績。

We generated net income of $1.1 billion and revenue of $2.8 billion in the third quarter, as you can see in slide 4.

正如您在投影片 4 中看到的那樣，我們第三季的淨利潤為 11 億美元，收入為 28 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $1.5 billion, and adjusted EBIT was $1.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 55% and adjusted EBIT margin of 45% indicative of our continued strong financial position.

調整後 EBITDA 為 15 億美元，調整後 EBIT 為 12 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 55%，調整後 EBIT 利潤率為 45%，顯示我們的財務狀況持續強勁。

We maintain total liquidity of $3.1 billion at quarter end.

截至季末，我們的流動性總額維持在 31 億美元。

Slide 5.

幻燈片 5。

Our nine months results are better than expected and recently improved outlook for Q4 '24.

我們 9 個月的業績優於預期，最近改善了 24 年第 4 季的前景。

We are raising our '24 guidance ranges.

我們正在提高 '24 指導範圍。

We now anticipate full year adjusted EBITDA between $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion and adjusted EBIT between $2.15 billion to $2.45 billion.

我們目前預計全年調整後 EBITDA 在 33 億美元至 36 億美元之間，調整後 EBIT 在 21.5 億美元至 24.5 億美元之間。

Also, thanks to our improved cash generation to date and strong balance sheet, our Board of Directors has declared a special dividend of $100 million on top of the regular dividend of $340 million or 30% of Q3 net income per our dividend policy.

此外，由於我們迄今為止現金產生能力的改善和強勁的資產負債表，我們的董事會已宣佈在3.4 億美元的常規股息之外，根據我們的股息政策，派發1 億美元的特別股息，即第三季度淨利的30%。

On a per share basis, we will distribute a total of $3.65 per share, which is made up of $2.81 per share on account of Q3 results, -- $0.84 per share as a special dividend.

以每股計算，我們將總共分配每股 3.65 美元，其中每股 2.81 美元是根據第三季業績計算的，每股 0.84 美元是特別股息。

Returning capital to shareholders has always been a priority and we are pleased to share our success with shareholders today with this substantial dividend.

向股東返還資本一直是我們的首要任務，我們很高興今天透過這筆巨額股利與股東分享我們的成功。

Slide 6.

幻燈片 6。

This quarter's result were the highest we have delivered since Q3 2022 and higher than any period prior to the extraordinary COVID market.

本季的業績是我們自 2022 年第三季以來的最高業績，高於新冠疫情市場爆發之前的任何時期。

While this quarter results were also driven by elevated freight rates, we have undertaken important strategic and commercial initiatives to maximize our earning power.

雖然本季業績也是由運費上漲所推動的，但我們已經採取了重要的策略和商業舉措，以最大限度地提高我們的獲利能力。

We believe that these actions have improved our competitive position and will continue to benefit us going forward regardless of prevailing market conditions.

我們相信，這些行動提高了我們的競爭地位，並將繼續使我們未來受益，無論當前的市場狀況如何。

First and foremost is, of course, our fleet renewal program.

首先也是最重要的當然是我們的機隊更新計畫。

To remind you, in 2021 and 2022, we engaged in a series of long-term charter agreements to secure 46 new build vessels, including 28 LNG-powered container ships to be delivered over the course of '23 and '24.

需要提醒您的是，在 2021 年和 2022 年，我們簽訂了一系列長期租船協議，以確保 46 艘新建船舶，其中包括將在 2023 年和 24 年期間交付的 28 艘液化天然氣動力貨櫃船。

The benefits of our fleet transformation are already evident in '24, driving our strong results this year.

我們機隊轉型的好處在 2024 年已經顯現出來，推動了我們今年的強勁業績。

Entering '25 and once we receive all 46 new vessels and redeliver some older capacity as planned, 50% of our fleet capacity will be newbuild, resulting in more fuel efficient and cost-efficient capacity.

進入 25 年，一旦我們收到全部 46 艘新船並按計劃重新交付一些舊船，我們船隊 50% 的運力將是新建的，從而提高燃油效率和成本效益。

Our average vessel size has grown making our fleet better suited to the trades in which we operate and improving our cost structure.

我們的平均船舶尺寸不斷增長，使我們的船隊更適合我們經營的行業，並改善了我們的成本結構。

Moreover, about 40% of our capacity will be LNG-powered.

此外，我們約 40% 的產能將由液化天然氣驅動。

ZIM was an early adopter of LNG, enabling us to be the first and only carriers currently operating two services on the Asia to US East Coast trade with LNG vessels.

以星是液化天然氣的早期採用者，使我們成為第一家也是唯一一家目前使用液化天然氣船舶在亞洲至美國東海岸貿易上運營兩項服務的承運商。

This has been an important commercial differential for us which supported our efforts to capture additional volume as we grow our operated capacity on this trade.

這對我們來說是一個重要的商業差異，它支持我們隨著我們在該行業的營運能力的成長而努力獲取額外的銷售。

In addition to reducing the environmental impact of ZIM operations, we have also seen financial benefit from our utilization of LNG.

除了減少以星運作對環境的影響外，我們還從液化天然氣的利用中獲得了經濟效益。

LNG is 25% more efficient as compared to LSFO, and has been consistently cheaper than LSFO since we had our first 15,000 [TEU] LNG vessels delivered to us in early '23.

與 LSFO 相比，LNG 的效率高 25%，自 23 年初向我們交付第一批 15,000 [TEU] LNG 船以來，LNG 的價格一直比 LSFO 便宜。

Importantly, we ensure reliable access to LNG, which is not as ready available as LSFO by reaching strategic supply agreements with Shell.

重要的是，我們透過與殼牌達成戰略供應協議，確保可靠地獲得液化天然氣，而液化天然氣不像低硫燃料那麼容易取得。

Recently, we entered into an additional agreement with Shell, and now our services to the US East Coast are covered by long-term LNG supply agreements.

最近，我們與殼牌簽訂了一項附加協議，現在我們對美國東海岸的服務已納入長期液化天然氣供應協議。

This has enabled us to operate our dual fuel LNG vessels on LNG and capture these cost benefits.

這使我們能夠使用液化天然氣來運作我們的雙燃料液化天然氣船舶並獲得這些成本效益。

Our improved competitive position on the Asia to US East Coast trade also help us reach our new operational collaboration agreement with MSC, replacing the agreement with the 2M.

我們在亞洲至美國東海岸貿易中競爭地位的提高也有助於我們與 MSC 達成新的營運合作協議，取代與 2M 的協議。

More recently, we also agreed to a new operational collaboration with Hapag-Lloyd, covering the Atlantic trade.

最近，我們也同意與赫伯羅特開展新的業務合作，涵蓋大西洋貿易。

These and other operational collaboration agreements we have in place allow us to improve network efficiency by promoting greater utilization of larger vessels as well as enhance our product offering to customers with better port coverage.

我們簽訂的這些和其他營運合作協議使我們能夠透過促進更大的船舶的更大利用率來提高網路效率，並透過更好的港口覆蓋範圍增強我們為客戶提供的產品。

While in secured cost competitive new build capacity to support its commercial strategy and was prepared to operate independently, these operational collaborations derisk the significant capacity growth we have undertaken in '23 and '24.

雖然確保了具有成本競爭力的新產能來支持其商業策略並準備獨立運營，但這些營運合作使我們在 23 年和 24 年進行的產能大幅成長面臨風險。

We have also been proactive in securing the necessary equipment to support our planned volume growth this year.

我們也積極主動地獲取必要的設備，以支持我們今年計劃的銷售成長。

As I already mentioned, a key factor contributing to our strong Q3 results has been volume growth, reaching 970,000 TEU, which represents another record high for ZIM.

正如我已經提到的，促成我們第三季強勁業績的一個關鍵因素是銷售成長，達到 970,000 TEU，這代表以星集團的另一個歷史新高。

This 12% year-over-year growth significantly outpaced global container market growth.

12%的同比增長明顯超過了全球貨櫃市場的成長。

We are incredibly pleased with our progress in gaining market share, owing to our strategic investment in ZIM fleet, particularly on the Asia to US East Coast trade.

由於我們對以星船隊的戰略投資，特別是在亞洲至美國東海岸的貿易上，我們對在獲得市場份額方面取得的進展感到非常高興。

We have also delivered significant growth in Latin America and newer focus area for ZIM.

我們也在拉丁美洲和以星新的重點領域實現了顯著成長。

Identifying potential growth opportunity and demonstrating commercial agility have been and continue to be a core strength at ZIM.

識別潛在成長機會並展示商業敏捷性一直是並將繼續成為以星的核心優勢。

Identifying the carrier opportunity and expanding our capacity to 16 carriers is one example.

識別承運商機會並將我們的運力擴展到 16 家承運商就是一個例子。

Two more recent examples are our expand focus on Latin America, which I just mentioned.

最近的兩個例子是我們擴大對拉丁美洲的關注，我剛才提到了這一點。

And the expedite services we relaunched in '24 from Asia to the US West Coast to capitalize on the strong volume growth on this trade.

我們於 2024 年重新推出了從亞洲到美國西海岸的加急服務，以充分利用這項貿易量的強勁成長。

Another commercial decision we made this year that contribute to our strong Q3 results was our strategy to increasing exposure to spot volume.

我們今年做出的另一個商業決策是我們增加現貨交易量的策略，這對我們第三季的強勁業績做出了貢獻。

As you will recall, earlier in the year, ZIM choose to deviate from our previous approach of a 50-50 split between spot and contract volume and instead increased our spot exposure in the Transpacific trade to about 65%.

您可能還記得，今年早些時候，ZIM 選擇放棄我們之前將現貨量和合約量按 50-50 比例分配的做法，而是將我們在跨太平洋貿易中的現貨敞口增加到約 65%。

This enables ZIM to benefit more significantly from the upward pressure we saw on spot rates in the third quarter.

這使得以星星能夠從第三季即期匯率的上行壓力中獲得更顯著的收益。

Slide 7.

幻燈片 7。

Looking ahead, market dynamics still point to supply growth outpacing demand in '25 and '26, setting up for reversion following a period of strong trades that has extended for most of '24.

展望未來，市場動態仍表明，25 年和 26 年供應成長超過需求，在 24 年大部分時間持續強勁的交易期間之後，市場將出現逆轉。

However, the rate environment can be volatile and unpredictable, dictated by macro conditions and times factor external to the shipping industry.

然而，利率環境可能不穩定且不可預測，受宏觀條件和航運業外部時間因素的影響。

As such, our focus has been and will continue to be on improving our cost structure and operational and commercial resilience.

因此，我們的重點一直並將繼續是改善我們的成本結構以及營運和商業彈性。

It is important to highlight that our position to ZIM today in fundamental is fundamentally better as compared to a year ago.

需要強調的是，我們今天對以星的基本面狀況比一年前好得多。

The transition period of '23 and '24 is concluding, and we are on track to complete our fleet transformation as planned.

'23 和 '24 的過渡期即將結束，我們預計將按計劃完成機隊轉型。

The benefits of our strategic investment in our fleet have already begun to materialize this year as I have detailed today.

正如我今天詳細介紹的那樣，我們對機隊的戰略投資的好處今年已經開始顯現。

Our position in '25 and beyond will improve further as we are regaining flexibility in terms of the size of our operated capacity, which a total of 57 vessels up for renewal in '25 and '26, which we could redelivered to owners.

我們在 25 年及以後的地位將進一步改善，因為我們在營運能力規模方面重新獲得靈活性，在 25 年和 26 年共有 57 艘船舶需要更新，我們可以將其重新交付給船東。

We can choose to continue operating similar capacity or scale back depending on the market environment.

我們可以根據市場環境選擇繼續運作類似產能或縮減產能。

As market conditions continue to evolve, we intend to remain agile and build on our track record of taking advantages of attractive opportunities that benefit ZIM both operationally and financially.

隨著市場狀況的不斷發展，我們打算保持敏捷性，並利用我們的過往記錄，利用有吸引力的機會，使以星在營運和財務上都受益。

We are confident that the steps we have taken have solidified our position as an agile container shipping players with a competitive cost and fuel-efficient modern fleets.

我們相信，我們所採取的措施鞏固了我們作為敏捷貨櫃運輸公司的地位，擁有具有競爭力的成本和燃油效率的現代船隊。

On this note, I will turn the call over to Xavier, our CFO, for a more detailed discussion of our financial results, our updated '24 guidance as well as additional comments on the market environment.

就此而言，我將把電話轉給我們的財務長 Xavier，以更詳細地討論我們的財務業績、更新的 24 年指導以及對市場環境的其他評論。

Xavier, please go ahead.

澤維爾，請繼續。

Thank you, Eli, and again, welcome, everyone.

謝謝你，伊萊，再次歡迎大家。

On slide 8, we present key financial and operational highlights.

在幻燈片 8 中，我們展示了主要的財務和營運亮點。

Since third quarter financial results reflect continued momentum based on strong demand and elevated freight rates.

自第三季以來，財務表現反映出強勁需求和運費上漲帶來的持續成長動能。

Our third quarter average freight rate per TEU was $2,480, a 118% year-over-year increase and a 48% increase from the prior quarter.

我們第三季每TEU平均運價為2,480美元，年增118%，季增48%。

During the first nine months of the year, our average freight rate per TEU of $1,889 was 53% higher than in the first nine months of 2023.

今年前 9 個月，我們每 TEU 的平均運費為 1,889 美元，比 2023 年前 9 個月上漲 53%。

At the same time, ZIM's increased carried volumes have had a positive impact on earnings given the strong rate environment.

同時，鑑於強勁的利率環境，ZIM 增加的結轉量對獲利產生了積極影響。

And as Eli mentioned, our Q3 carried quantity of 970,000 TEUs was a record and 12% higher year-over-year.

正如 Eli 所提到的，我們第三季的載運量達到了創紀錄的 970,000 TEU，年增 12%。

ZIM's growth compared favorably to market growth of 5%.

ZIM 的成長優於市場 5% 的成長。

Revenues from non-containerized cargo, which reflects mostly our car carrier services, totaled $145 million for the quarter compared to $153 million in the third quarter of last year.

非貨櫃貨運收入（主要反映了我們的汽車運輸服務）本季總計 1.45 億美元，而去年第三季為 1.53 億美元。

Total revenues in the first nine months of 2024 of $6.3 billion were up $2.3 billion or 58% year-over-year.

2024 年前 9 個月的總營收為 63 億美元，年增 23 億美元，成長 58%。

Our free cash flow in the third quarter totaled $1.5 billion compared to $328 million in the third quarter of 2023.

我們第三季的自由現金流總計 15 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 3.28 億美元。

Turning now to the balance sheet.

現在轉向資產負債表。

Total debt increased by $828 million since prior year-end.

自去年年底以來，債務總額增加了 8.28 億美元。

And that is mainly due to the net effect of the incoming larger vessels with longer-term charter durations attached.

這主要是由於大型船舶的入港所帶來的淨效應，且租期較長。

I'd like to remind you that the newbuild capacity we have received, especially the LNG vessels are chartered for a period of 8 to 12 years, creating a predictability in our cost structure with respect to this core capacity.

我想提醒大家的是，我們收到的新建產能，特別是液化天然氣船舶的租期為8至12年，這使得我們在這核心產能方面的成本結構具有可預測性。

Furthermore, we hold options to extend the charter period on the 25 Seaspan LNG vessels as well as purchase options, giving us full control over the destiny of these ships, very much as we were at the actual vessel owner.

此外，我們還擁有延長 25 艘 Seaspan 液化天然氣船租期的選擇權以及購買選擇權，使我們能夠完全控制這些船舶的命運，就像我們是實際的船東一樣。

Turning to our fleet.

轉向我們的艦隊。

We currently operate 145 vessels, including 129 container ships with total capacity of approximately 773,000 TEUs as well as 16 car carriers.

目前，我們營運 145 艘船舶，其中包括 129 艘貨櫃船，總運力約為 773,000 標準箱，以及 16 艘汽車運輸船。

This compares to an overall fleet of 148 vessels as of our prior earnings call in August.

相較之下，截至 8 月我們之前的財報電話會議，船隊總數為 148 艘。

The change from three months ago resulted from the delivery of four new builds and the re-delivery of seven smaller vessels.

三個月前的變化是由於交付了四艘新船和重新交付了七艘較小的船舶。

I'd like to reiterate that while we may continue to operate a similar number of vessels, our operating capacity continues to grow.

我想重申，雖然我們可能會繼續運營類似數量的船隻，但我們的營運能力仍在不斷增長。

In fact, today, the average vessel size we operate is about 50% larger as compared to our fleet two years ago.

事實上，今天我們營運的平均船舶規模比兩年前的船隊大了約 50%。

And with our fleet transformation program, we are replacing smaller less cost-effective tonnage with larger, more cost-efficient new build capacity.

透過我們的船隊改造計劃，我們正在用更大、更具成本效益的新建產能取代較小、成本效益較低的噸位。

As of today's call, 42 of the 46 newbuild vessels ZIM had committed to join our fleet -- have joined our fleet, including all 10 15,000 TEU LNG vessels, the 4 12,000 TEU vessels, 15 of the 18 8,000 TEU LNG vessels and 13 of the 14 smaller wide beam, 5,500 and 5,300 TEU ships.

截至今天的電話會議，以星集團承諾加入我們船隊的46 艘新建船舶中，有42 艘已加入我們的船隊，包括所有10 艘15,000 TEU 液化天然氣船、4 艘12,000 TEU 船舶、18 艘8,000 TEU 液化天然氣船中的15 艘以及13 艘14 艘較小的寬梁、5,500 和 5,300 TEU 船舶。

Excluding the newbuild capacity, the average remaining duration of our charted tonnage continues to trend down and is now 17 months compared to 18 months in late August.

不包括新建產能，我們圖表中噸位的平均剩餘期限持續呈下降趨勢，目前為 17 個月，而 8 月底為 18 個月。

We have still a total of seven vessels up for charter renewal in the remainder of 2024 as compared to the expected delivery of four new builds during the same period.

與同期預期交付的四艘新船相比，我們仍有總共七艘船舶需要在 2024 年剩餘時間內續租。

So as we approach 2025, we have another 35 vessels up for renewal next year and 22 vessels up for renewal in 2026.

因此，隨著 2025 年的臨近，我們明年還有 35 艘船舶需要更新，2026 年還有 22 艘船舶需要更新。

Which, as Eli mentioned, provide us optionality to better align our operating capacity with the market opportunities.

正如 Eli 所提到的，這為我們提供了選擇權，可以更好地將我們的營運能力與市場機會結合起來。

Next now on slide 10, we present in Q3 and nine months 2024 financial results compared to last year's Q3 and first nine months.

接下來在投影片 10 上，我們展示了 2024 年第三季和前九個月的財務業績，與去年第三季和前九個月的財務業績進行了比較。

Adjusted EBITDA in this year's third quarter was $1.5 billion, and adjusted EBIT was $1.2 billion.

今年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 15 億美元，調整後 EBIT 為 12 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA and EBIT margins for the third quarter were 55% and 45%, respectively, as compared to 17% and an EBIT loss in the third quarter of last year.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 和 EBIT 利潤率分別為 55% 和 45%，而去年第三季為 17%，且 EBIT 出現虧損。

For the first nine months of 2024, adjusted EBITDA margin was 44% and adjusted EBIT margin was 30%.

2024 年前 9 個月，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 44%，調整後 EBIT 利潤率為 30%。

This is compared to 22% and an EBIT loss in 2023.

相較之下，2023 年將出現 22% 的息稅前利潤損失。

Net income in the third quarter was $1.1 billion compared to a net loss of $2.3 billion in Q3 2023.

第三季淨利為 11 億美元，而 2023 年第三季淨虧損為 23 億美元。

As a reminder, net loss in Q3 last year was primarily driven by a non-cash impairment charge of $2.1 billion.

需要提醒的是，去年第三季的淨虧損主要是由 21 億美元的非現金減損費用造成的。

Turning now to slide 11.

現在轉到投影片 11。

We present here our carried volume broken down by trade zone.

我們在此展示按貿易區細分的持有量。

As you can see, we saw significant growth in the Transpacific, Latin America and Atlantic trade in the third quarter, attributable to our larger capacity vessels and new lines.

正如您所看到的，由於我們容量較大的船舶和新航線，第三季跨太平洋、拉丁美洲和大西洋貿易顯著成長。

Transpacific and Latin America volume grew 24% and 59%, respectively, year-over-year.

跨太平洋航線和拉丁美洲航線的運量較去年同期分別成長 24% 和 59%。

We expect to see continued volume growth during the remainder of 2024 as we continue to upsize our capacity and remain on track to achieve our double-digit volume growth target this year.

隨著我們繼續擴大產能，並繼續實現今年兩位數的銷售成長目標，我們預計 2024 年剩餘時間內銷量將持續成長。

On slide 12 is our cash flow bridge.

第 12 張投影片是我們的現金流橋。

For the quarter, our adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion converted into $1.5 billion of cash flow generated from operating activities.

本季度，我們調整後的 15 億美元 EBITDA 轉化為經營活動產生的 15 億美元現金流。

Other significant cash flow items for the quarter include $595 million of debt service, mostly related to our lease liability repayments and a dividend of $112 million.

本季的其他重要現金流項目包括 5.95 億美元的償債，主要與我們的租賃負債償還和 1.12 億美元的股息有關。

In the third quarter, in Q3, we paid $60 million as a down payment on the delivery of three of our LNG vessels.

在第三季度，我們支付了 6,000 萬美元作為交付三艘液化天然氣船的首付。

Moving now to our 2024 guidance.

現在轉向我們的 2024 年指導。

As you already heard from Eli, our outlook for the remainder of 2024 is stronger than previously assumed.

正如您從 Eli 那裡聽到的，我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的展望比之前的假設要強。

And as such, we are raising our full year 2024 guidance and now expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between $3.3 billion and $3.6 billion and adjusted EBIT between $2.15 billion and $2.45 billion.

因此，我們提高了 2024 年全年指引，目前預計調整後 EBITDA 為 33 億至 36 億美元，調整後 EBIT 為 21.5 億至 24.5 億美元。

Our assumptions for double-digit volume growth and bunker cost haven't changed since we provided our prior guidance in August.

自從我們在八月提供之前的指導以來，我們對兩位數銷售成長和燃油成本的假設沒有改變。

However, the expected decline in freight rates from the peak in early summer was slower than we had initially anticipated, resulting in a stronger overall expected performance for the year.

然而，運價相對初夏高峰的預期下降速度比我們最初預期的要慢，導致全年整體預期表現更為強勁。

Before we open the call to questions, a few comments on the market.

在我們開始提問之前，先對市場發表一些評論。

Looking back at 2024, this year developed very differently than what was initially anticipated.

回顧2024年，這一年的發展與最初的預期有很大不同。

From an expectation of significant oversupply, causing potentially freight rates to drop to loss-making levels, we saw a relative equilibrium develop due to the significant capacity absorbed by the Red Sea diversion, which coupled with better-than-expected demand, drove rates upwards.

由於預期供應嚴重過剩，導致運費可能下降至虧損水平，我們看到由於紅海改道吸收了大量運力，形成了相對平衡，加上好於預期的需求，推動運費上漲。

Looking forward to 2025 and beyond, in addition to uncertainties stemming from geopolitical matters such as the duration of the Red Sea crisis or the impact of the recent US elections, the risk of oversupply continues to exist, especially with the recent growth in the order book to fleet ratio to 25.5%, though to a lesser extent than the gap between the supply and demand growth of 2024.

展望2025年及以後，除了紅海危機持續時間或近期美國大選影響等地緣政治問題帶來的不確定性外，供應過剩的風險持續存在，尤其是近期訂單增長機隊比例升至25.5%，但程度低於2024 年供需成長之間的差距。

Yet it's also important to note that the delivery schedule of the current order book is longer than the typical two year period.

但還要注意的是，目前訂單的交貨時間表比典型的兩年期要長。

Rather, it is stretched out to 2027, 2028 and even 2029, using the absorption of this additional capacity.

相反，利用吸收的額外產能，將其延長至 2027 年、2028 年甚至 2029 年。

Moreover, over the next several years, the decarbonization agenda of the industry will require carriers to modernize their fleet, so they will be able to meet IMO mandates as well as customer expectations on reducing carbon emissions.

此外，在未來幾年中，該行業的脫碳議程將要求承運商對其機隊進行現代化改造，以便他們能夠滿足國際海事組織的要求以及客戶對減少碳排放的期望。

The decarbonization agenda of our industry will also likely drive scrapping to more meaningful levels.

我們行業的脫碳議程也可能將報廢推動到更有意義的水平。

Scrapping almost did not happen since 2021, and at some point, it should begin to catch up, especially as more stringent regulations on carbon emissions are enforced, making it uneconomic to operate certain older vessels.

自 2021 年以來幾乎沒有發生拆船事件，在某個時候，這種情況應該會開始迎頭趕上，特別是隨著更嚴格的碳排放法規的實施，使得運營某些舊船變得不經濟。

In the short term, industry players can also utilize slow steaming or idling to continue to manage capacity.

短期內，產業參與者還可以利用慢航或閒置來繼續管理運能。

On that note, we will now open the call to questions.

就此而言，我們現在將開始提問。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

奧馬爾諾克塔，傑弗里斯。

Obviously, exceptionally strong quarter, big guidance bump.

顯然，季度異常強勁，指引大幅上漲。

First, maybe just on the dividend.

首先，也許只是股利。

Your cash position has jumped here to above $3 billion here at quarter end.

到季末，您的現金部位已躍升至 30 億美元以上。

It seems that you're just hearing the commentary and by your actions that you've got a good level of confidence on the outlook.

看來你只是聽到了評論，從你的行動來看，你對前景充滿信心。

I guess, for ZIM in particular.

我想，對於以星來說尤其如此。

But maybe if you don't mind just giving us a sense of how are you thinking about ZIM and how it's positioned as we go into an uncertain -- perhaps 2025?

但也許您不介意讓我們了解一下您對以星的看法，以及當我們進入一個不確定的時期——也許是 2025 年時，它的定位如何？

And then also in terms of the dividend, the $100 million payout, the special payout, does that factor into the Board's decision on whether or not to true up to the full

然後，就股利而言，1 億美元的股利、特別股利是否會影響董事會決定是否全額支付股利？

[50%].

[50%]。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Omar.

謝謝你，奧馬爾。

Maybe addressing the second part of your question.

也許可以解決您問題的第二部分。

We are indeed very pleased to be able to top up our regular dividend this quarter, and this is, I think, us being true to our commitment vis-a-vis our shareholders to return capital as much as we can when the situation allows.

我們確實非常高興能夠在本季度增加定期股息，我認為，這是我們兌現了對股東的承諾，即在情況允許的情況下盡可能多地返還資本。

And as you rightly pointed out, the third quarter and also the outlook for the remainder of the year is somewhat stronger than what we initially planned for hence, why we have decided to top up again our regular dividend with a special dividend.

正如您正確指出的那樣，第三季度以及今年剩餘時間的前景比我們最初計劃的要強，因此，我們決定再次以特別股息補充我們的定期股息。

Just to get things into context, if we look at what has happened and how much capital we returned since we became a public company in 2021, we've returned $5.2 billion to our shareholders or $43.26 per share over this four year period, including this quarter dividend in those numbers.

簡單來說，如果我們看看自 2021 年成為上市公司以來發生了什麼以及我們返還了多少資本，我們在這四年期間向股東返還了 52 億美元，即每股 43.26 美元，其中包括這些數字中的季度股息。

So it is us delivering on our commitment that we are doing this quarter.

因此，我們本季正在兌現我們的承諾。

Now when it comes to the question of what will or what may happen in March.

現在談到三月會發生什麼或可能發生什麼的問題。

Our current dividend policy stand and the Board will review in March what to do in terms of potentially topping up our dividend between 30% to 50% of the net income that we will have generated over the full year period.

我們目前的股利政策立場和董事會將在 3 月審查如何將股利增加到我們全年淨利的 30% 至 50% 之間。

So that decision will -- this discussion will take place in March.

因此，該決定將在三月進行討論。

The dividend policy remains in place and unchanged.

股利政策維持不變。

Now going back into looking at what the market may look like in 2025.

現在回過頭來看看 2025 年市場會是什麼樣子。

Clearly, we are pointing towards a good performance towards the end of 2024.

顯然，我們預計到 2024 年底將會有良好的表現。

So a good Q4 and certainly a better Q4 than what we anticipated in August, a few months back.

因此，第四季度表現不錯，而且肯定比我們幾個月前八月份的預期更好。

Now looking into 2025, there are a lot of potential element of volatility ahead of us.

現在展望 2025 年，我們面臨許多潛在的波動因素。

One thing is for sure, is that the company is very well prepared and very well equipped to navigate the uncertainties that lies ahead.

有一件事是肯定的，該公司已做好充分準備，並有充分能力應對未來的不確定性。

So we don't control what the geopolitical situation will be.

所以我們無法控制地緣政治局勢。

But what we control is our ability to react fast to changing market conditions.

但我們控制的是我們對不斷變化的市場條件做出快速反應的能力。

We have, I think, demonstrated in this quarter end in the prior quarter our ability to move and redeploy our capacity to trades where they are more contributive than others.

我認為，我們在上一季的本季末證明了我們有能力將我們的能力轉移和重新部署到比其他人更具貢獻的交易中。

Eli mentioned us reopening very swiftly and rapidly our trade serving the Pacific Southwest, moving vessels from Pacific Northwest to Pacific Southwest and again, capturing the extra profit that those trades were generating.

伊萊提到，我們非常迅速地重新開放了為太平洋西南地區提供服務的貿易，將船隻從太平洋西北地區轉移到太平洋西南地區，並再次獲取這些貿易產生的額外利潤。

We are also very strongly positioning ourselves into a market where we believe there are potential for significant growth in the future.

我們也非常堅定地將自己定位在一個我們相信未來有顯著成長潛力的市場。

You've seen our volume growth quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year on Latin America trade, where we believe is an area that will benefit in future years from future growth.

您已經看到我們在拉丁美洲貿易上的銷量逐季、逐年增長，我們相信該領域將在未來幾年受益於未來的成長。

And last but not least, looking at our vessel strategy, we are now getting into 2025, completing our fleet transformation.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，從我們的船舶戰略來看，我們現在即將進入 2025 年，完成我們的船隊轉型。

So having our core fleet, which is now extremely cost efficient, remembering that we ordered those vessels in 2021, '22, before a significant surge in a newbuild price and also before the inflationary environment that led to a cost of capital being elevated thereafter.

因此，我們的核心船隊現在極具成本效益，請記住，我們是在2021 年、22 年訂購了這些船舶，當時是在新造船價格大幅上漲之前，也是在通貨膨脹環境導致資本成本上升之前。

So we got a very good deal if we compare to what would be the similar type of costs that we would incur if we were placing those orders today.

因此，如果我們與今天下這些訂單所產生的類似成本進行比較，我們得到了非常划算的交易。

So we are entering 2025 with 50% of our core fleet -- of our operated fleet being represented by this 46 brand-new ship, 40% of our capacity is LNG powered, and we have regained the ability to potentially flex down if we need to, depending on what the market environment may be like in 2025 by returning the smaller, less efficient vessels that might be -- that will be up for renewal in 2025, the 35 ships that we were talking about.

因此，進入2025 年，我們核心船隊的50%（我們運營的船隊中以這46 艘全新船舶為代表），我們40% 的運力由液化天然氣驅動，並且我們已經重新獲得了在需要時可以靈活調整的能力。

Great.

偉大的。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

And maybe just a follow-up, maybe in terms of just the spot market, and as we referenced here, it looks like we're finishing off the year relatively strongly.

也許只是一個後續行動，也許只是就現貨市場而言，正如我們在這裡提到的，看起來我們正在相對強勁地結束這一年。

Maybe just like, could you give some color on what you've been seeing here recently.

也許就像，你能為你最近在這裡看到的東西提供一些顏色嗎？

You had the wind up going into peak season, a little bit of a wind down as peak season has started to conclude.

您即將進入旺季，隨著旺季開始結束，您的心情會有所放鬆。

How does -- how have things kind of been going here recently?

最近這裡的情況怎麼樣？

And then in terms of the strike on the US East Coast, it only lasted three days, you're obviously very active in that market.

然後就美國東岸的罷工而言，只持續了三天，顯然你們在那個市場上非常活躍。

Any lingering effect for them in the fourth quarter in terms of, say, financial impact?

在財務影響等方面，第四季對他們有什麼揮之不去的影響嗎？

Anything to talk about?

有什麼要談的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean I think the first element to consider is very quickly, after the Golden Week, which is a very important date in the seasonality of our industry, volume came back very quickly.

我的意思是，我認為要考慮的第一個因素是非常快，黃金週之後，這是我們行業季節性中非常重要的日期，成交量很快就恢復了。

So this is why we are quite confident in our ability to deliver on the fourth quarter, also a stronger volume of carried TEU.

因此，這就是為什麼我們對第四季度的交付能力以及更強勁的標準箱運輸量充滿信心。

So the demand was strong, and there may be a few things that can explain why demand was very strong to pick up shortly after Chinese -- after the Golden Week.

因此，需求很強勁，也許有幾件事可以解釋為什麼需求在中國黃金週後不久就會非常強勁地回升。

Maybe the fear of the potential tariff was one driver, the fear of the potential strike that may take place from January 15 in the US, and also the fact that from a timing perspective, Chinese New Year next year will come quite early towards the end of January.

也許對潛在關稅的擔憂是一個驅動因素，對美國可能從 1 月 15 日起發生的潛在罷工的擔憂，以及從時間角度來看，明年的農曆新年將在年底到來得相當早。

So they -- that might have triggered also some sort of a cargo rush in the -- towards the end of the third quarter.

因此，這可能在第三季末引發了某種形式的貨運熱潮。

And also, as we see today, strong volume currently being moved between the -- especially Asia to the US.

而且，正如我們今天所看到的，目前在亞洲（尤其是亞洲）和美國之間的運輸量很大。

So that is obviously supporting the rate environment.

因此，這顯然支持了利率環境。

And as you rightly pointed out, we did see the rate started to normalize after the peak that was reached in July.

正如您正確指出的那樣，我們確實看到利率在 7 月達到高峰後開始正常化。

But over the past few weeks and post golden week, what we've seen is on most of the trade lane, some sort of a stabilization in the rate environment.

但在過去幾週和黃金週後，我們在大部分貿易通道上看到了利率環境的某種穩定。

And even on some other trades, we are seeing rates starting to pick up again.

即使在其他一些交易中，我們也看到利率開始再次上升。

So that, I think, points towards a good finish for 2024, at least up until the end of January, up until Chinese New Year, then we will move towards the second part of -- the better part of 2025, and we will need to see what will be the effect potentially of the new policy of Mr. Trump and how the demand will be going forward.

因此，我認為，這表明 2024 年將有一個良好的收官，至少到 1 月底，直到農曆新年，然後我們將邁向 2025 年的第二部分——更好的部分，我們將需要看看特朗普先生的新政策會產生什麼潛在影響以及需求將如何發展。

But today, everything points towards a continued growth in demand.

但今天，一切都顯示需求持續成長。

I would like to add, Omar.

我想補充一點，奧馬爾。

I think these results, higher than $1.13 billion.

我認為這些結果高於 11.3 億美元。

The decision on special dividend of $100 million on top of the $340 million.

決定在 3.4 億美元的基礎上增加 1 億美元的特別股息。

Our confidence in the company with the new fleet that we have, 42, and new vessels, very efficient LNG vessels that we have in the fleet, we see the impact.

我們對公司充滿信心，我們擁有 42 艘新船隊，以及我們船隊中擁有的新船、非常高效的液化天然氣船，我們看到了影響。

We see the record volume of the company.

我們看到該公司創紀錄的交易量。

We enjoy from all of our decision to prefer this year the spot rate on top of the long-term contract.

我們今年做出了在長期合約之上選擇即期匯率的決定，對此我們感到很高興。

And not to surrender to price adjusted to us by, let's call it, the big customer below breakeven, show our results.

不要屈服於由低於損益平衡點的大客戶向我們調整的價格，請展示我們的結果。

On top of that, our decision to open a new line from Asia to the West Coast of South America, our decision to reopen the line from Asia, South China to LA and from Shanghai, Ningbo to LA show our strength, our agility to take decision, and we are in high confidence.

最重要的是，我們決定開通從亞洲到南美西海岸的新航線，我們決定重新開通從亞洲、華南到洛杉磯以及從上海、寧波到洛杉磯的航線，這表明了我們的實力和敏捷性。充滿信心。

And with that, the Board approved the special dividend on top of the $340 million, totaled $440 million.

至此，董事會批准了除 3.4 億美元之外的特別股息，總額為 4.4 億美元。

So we believe in the company, we see strong cash flow and we believe in the future of the company.

所以我們相信公司，我們看到強勁的現金流，我們相信公司的未來。

Alexia Dogani, JPMorgan.

亞歷克西婭·多加尼，摩根大通。

I had two questions.

我有兩個問題。

Just firstly, very good to hear kind of the positive outlook that gives you the confidence to give some incremental special dividend near term.

首先，很高興聽到這種積極的前景，這讓您有信心在近期發放一些增量特別股息。

What held you back from reversing the impairment you took last year?

是什麼阻礙您扭轉去年的減損？

Because I believe that the impairment was driven by the -- kind of outlook of the market.

因為我相信減損是由市場前景所驅動的。

Could you not reconsider that decision now that you suggest kind of things have improved more underlying?

既然您認為某些事情已經得到了更根本的改善，您難道不能重新考慮這個決定嗎？

So that's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

And then secondly, can you just clarify, Xavier, what percent of your capacity is on this kind of smaller, less efficient vessels that could potentially come out in '25 should the market turn out weaker?

其次，Xavier，您能否澄清一下，如果市場表現疲軟，這種較小、效率較低的船舶可能會在 25 年出現，您的運力中有多少百分比？

And then if I actually can ask one more.

然後我是否真的可以再問一個。

What are you hearing from your customers near term?

您近期從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？

I mean is there scope for further inventory buildup into the first half of 2025 or kind of the duration, kind of constraint the timing benefit of arriving in the US in the next couple of weeks?

我的意思是，到 2025 年上半年，庫存是否還有進一步增加的空間，或者在未來幾週內到達美國的持續時間、時間效益是否受到某種限制？

Alexia, so on your first question, with respect to the impairment, this is maybe a little bit of a complex accounting matter, but I'll try to explain as clearly as I can.

Alexia，關於你的第一個問題，關於減值，這可能是一個有點複雜的會計問題，但我會盡力解釋清楚。

Back in September 2023, when we concluded this impairment analysis, it is always a forward-looking process that gets considered when we are benchmarking the value of our assets in our book against what is the potential value of the asset that will be generated in terms of future discounted cash flow.

早在 2023 年 9 月，當我們結束減損分析時，當我們將帳簿中資產的價值與將產生的資產的潛在價值進行基準比較時，這始終是一個前瞻性的過程。 。

So it's always forward looking.

所以它總是具有前瞻性。

And so what has happened behind does not really assist or play a significant role in every significant -- in any subsequent reassessment of the impairment.

因此，背後發生的事情並沒有真正幫助或在任何後續的損害重新評估中發揮重要作用。

So that being said, this quarter and like prior quarters, we did indeed look and reassess the overall impairment amount that was left in our book because some of it has already or a significant portion of it has already been amortized over the past 12 months.

話雖如此，本季和前幾季一樣，我們確實查看並重新評估了帳簿中剩餘的整體減損金額，因為其中一些或很大一部分已經在過去 12 個月內攤銷。

And when we look ahead into future years, '25, '26 and the year thereafter, and when we compile our cash forecast, when we use also the updated [WACC] in terms of discounting rate, which is also affected by the macro environment, in terms of interest rates, in terms of country risk in Israel.

當我們展望未來幾年，‘25’、‘26’以及之後的年份時，當我們編制現金預測時，當我們在貼現率方面也使用更新的[WACC]時，這也受到宏觀環境的影響，就利率而言，就以色列的國家風險而言。

So there is a lot of data that comes into play.

所以有很多數據在發揮作用。

And when we finalize the overall assessment and compare the expected, the realizable value of the assets where, what was left in terms of book value of the same assets, we saw that there was an immaterial impact of the impairment assessment.

當我們最終完成整體評估並比較資產的預期、可變現價值和相同資產的帳面價值時，我們發現減損評估的影響並不重大。

Hence why we concluded that there was no need to change anything.

因此我們得出的結論是沒有必要改變任何東西。

And what basically that translates into, in a non-accounting terms, maybe to help understand, is suggesting that the book value post impairment is pretty much in line with what the asset value would have been, had we not been forced to charter capacity in '21, '22 at a time when the charter rates were very high.

從非會計術語來看，這基本上可以解釋為，也許可以幫助理解，如果我們沒有被迫租用產能，那麼減值後的賬面價值與資產價值幾乎一致。高。

I think this is another way of looking at it from an economic perspective, walking away from the pure accounting treatment of the impairment assessment itself.

我認為這是從經濟學角度看待它的另一種方式，擺脫了減損評估本身的純粹會計處理。

Now with respect to your second question, the 35 ships that are up for renewal in terms of chartered vessel in 2025 are indeed a smaller ships than the one that we have received over the past two years, out of the 46 ships.

關於你的第二個問題，2025年包租的35艘船確實比我們過去兩年接收的46艘船中的船還要小。

Altogether, those 35 vessels combined represent a total TEU capacity of between 120,000, 130,000.

這 35 艘船加起來的總運力在 12 萬至 13 萬標準箱之間。

So meaning that if we look at what is the total TEU capacity that we will end up operating at year-end, close to 800,000 TEUs.

這意味著，如果我們看看年底我們最終將營運的 TEU 總運力是多少，接近 800,000 TEU。

We will have 120,000 TEU potentially that we could let go next year without having to face any early penalty to get out of an existing charter.

我們明年將擁有 120,000 TEU 的潛力，無需因退出現有包機而面臨任何早期處罰。

So we'll see what will happen with those vessels.

所以我們將看看這些船隻會發生什麼。

But again, very important to emphasize that the first vessel that we potentially leave the fleet, if there was to be any of them, will be the ones that are more expensive, less efficient for us to operate, leading the company always with operating the core capacity, which is far more efficient, far more cost efficient.

但再次強調，我們可能離開船隊的第一艘船（如果有的話）將是那些對我們來說更昂貴、運營效率更低的船，這使得公司始終以運營核心能力，效率更高，成本效益更高。

Third, I think you were asking about what do we see in terms of inventory level, I think in the US, you were referring to the US, which is the main market for us and obviously, on our Transpacific trade lanes.

第三，我認為您問的是我們在庫存水平方面看到的情況，我認為在美國，您指的是美國，這是我們的主要市場，顯然是我們跨太平洋貿易航線上的主要市場。

We've -- clearly, it came from a period of destocking in 2023 to maybe some sort of a restocking that took place over the summer.

顯然，這是從 2023 年的去庫存時期到夏季可能進行的某種補充庫存。

If we look at the inventory data in the US and the one for us that is, I think, maybe extremely relevant is inventory to sales ratio.

如果我們看一下美國的庫存數據以及我們的庫存數據，我認為，庫存與銷售比率可能極為相關。

We see that inventory levels as of today are not abnormal compared to normal inventory level to be expected at this time of year.

我們發現，與每年此時預期的正常庫存水準相比，截至今天的庫存水準並未出現異常。

The demand has been strong and resilient in the US.

美國的需求強勁且富有彈性。

So we don't feel too alarmed that there might be inventory buildup going on right now in the US that might bite us back in subsequent quarters into 2025.

因此，我們並不擔心美國目前可能出現庫存增加，這可能會在 2025 年接下來的幾個季度對我們造成影響。

At this stage, we don't see that.

在現階段，我們還沒有看到這一點。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And can I just ask one follow-up on the oversupply comments you gave earlier.

我可以就您之前提出的供過於求的評論詢問一個後續情況嗎？

Obviously, you're talking about risk of oversupply continuing, but to a lesser extent.

顯然，您談論的是供應過剩的風險持續存在，但程度較小。

What is that premised on?

這是基於什麼前提呢？

Is it on the view that likely the Cape of Good Hope journeys will continue in perpetuity or kind of what really is, yes, kind of the basis on the lesser extent point?

是否認為好望角之旅可能會永遠繼續下去，或者實際上是，是的，某種基於較小範圍點的基礎？

Look, I mean, the cape of good hope situation of the Red Sea crisis situation, it's very difficult to opine as to when that will potentially change.

聽著，我的意思是，紅海危機局勢中的好望角局勢，很難判斷這種情況何時會改變。

But hopefully, it will change sooner rather than later.

但希望這種情況能夠盡快改變。

And I think what we are referring to here is in terms of newbuild being delivered to this global shipping industry, 2024 was the year of significant newbuild deliveries, 3 million TEUs of equivalent capacity delivered this year, more than 10% of the overall tonnage being delivered in one year.

我認為我們在這裡指的是向全球航運業交付的新船而言，2024 年是新船交付量大的一年，今年交付了 300 萬標準箱的同等運力，佔總噸位的 10% 以上一年內交付。

In 2025, we know already that it's going to be far less.

到 2025 年，我們已經知道這個數字將會大大減少。

I mean it's still a significant amount, 2 million TEUs of capacity.

我的意思是，這仍然是一個很大的數量，200 萬個標準箱的運力。

And then in 2026, for now, I think we are in the region 1.5 million of TEU.

然後到 2026 年，目前，我認為我們的標準箱數將達到 150 萬個。

So 2024 was obviously a very important year on that front.

因此，2024 年顯然是這方面非常重要的一年。

Clearly, the Red Sea situation contributed meaningfully to help absorb this additional capacity that came in.

顯然，紅海局勢對吸收新增產能做出了有意義的貢獻。

At some point, the Red Sea disruption will dissipate.

到了某個時候，紅海的干擾將會消失。

But we are still in an industry which is growing in terms of expected carried quantities year-over-year.

但我們仍處於一個預期攜帶量逐年成長的行業。

So that is an important element of consideration to be taken.

因此，這是需要考慮的重要因素。

And second, the scrapping of capacity will -- it's a matter of -- it's not an if, it's a matter of when.

其次，產能的廢棄將——這是一個問題——這不是一個「如果」的問題，而是一個何時發生的問題。

And this should approach -- this should happen fairly soon.

這應該會很快發生。

There will be a need to take out older tonnage.

需要淘汰舊噸位。

There is a lot of vessels that in other circumstances would no longer sell, and those vessels will need to be retired.

有很多船隻在其他情況下將不再出售，這些船隻將需要退役。

They would have been in normal circumstances, and they will be pushed out also with the enforcement of the IMO regulation.

在正常情況下它們是會出現的，而且隨著 IMO 法規的執行，它們也會被驅逐出去。

And again, I think what we could add one other element to finish answering the question.

再說一次，我認為我們可以添加另一個元素來完成這個問題的答案。

If we look today, in order to cope with the surge of required capacity, to work around or to go around the Cape of Good Hope.

如果我們今天看，為了應對所需運力的激增，必須繞行或繞過好望角。

If you look at the average vessel speed, it went up from 2023.

如果你看一下平均船速，你會發現它比 2023 年上升。

I think today, on average, the fleet is sailing at 16.5 knots, there is clearly room in 2023, the average was below 15.5, so that's a one knot different is having a significant effect also on capacity absorption.

我認為今天船隊的平均航行速度為 16.5 節，到 2023 年顯然還有空間，平均速度低於 15.5 節，因此 1 節的差異也會對容量吸收產生重大影響。

So when the route around via Suez reopens, all those drivers will come in also to potentially mitigate the risk or the effect of this influx of capacity.

因此，當途經蘇伊士的路線重新開放時，所有這些司機都將進來，以潛在地減輕運力湧入的風險或影響。

The risk is there of -- risk of extra overcapacity.

風險在於－產能過剩的風險。

But there are also, I think, this should not be overlooked, a series of meaningful things that could happen that could mitigate that risk going forward.

但我認為，這也不該被忽視，可能發生的一系列有意義的事情可以減輕未來的風險。

Sathish Sivakumar, Citigroup.

薩蒂什·西瓦庫瑪 (Sathish Sivakumar)，花旗集團。

Xavier and Eli Glickman, congratulations on the good results here, actually.

Xavier 和 Eli Glickman，實際上祝賀這裡取得的好成績。

I got four questions here, and I might start off with -- on the guidance as such.

我在這裡有四個問題，我可能會從關於指導本身的問題開始。

If I look at the guidance, the top end, it actually assumes the average freight rates being flat quarter-on-quarter.

如果我看一下指導，最上面的內容，它實際上假設平均運費季度環比持平。

Is that correct?

這是正確的嗎？

Or do you actually see an uptick in the volume growth versus Q4 even adjusted for seasonality?

或者，即使根據季節性調整，您是否確實看到銷量成長與第四季度相比有所上升？

And then the second question is around the contract versus the spot volume mix here.

第二個問題是圍繞著合約與現貨交易量的組合。

Has it changed as we went through the year?

隨著這一年的過去，情況有改變嗎？

Are you still using around 35% of your volumes on Transpacific is still contracted?

您在跨太平洋航線上的使用量是否仍處於合約狀態，約為 35%？

And any color around that?

周圍有什麼顏色嗎？

What does that split looks like actually at the end of Q3?

在第三季末，這種分裂實際上是什麼樣的？

And then the third one is around the vessel utilization.

第三個是圍繞船舶利用率。

If you have any color around like within your trade lanes, where are you seeing, say, higher utilization versus you're seeing still some pressure on getting the vessels fully utilized.

如果您周圍有任何顏色，例如在您的貿易航線內，那麼您在哪裡看到更高的利用率，而不是在充分利用船隻方面仍然存在一些壓力。

Again, just looking into very specifically, Transpacific versus Intra-Asia, LatAm trades.

再說一遍，只是非常具體地研究跨太平洋與亞洲內部、拉丁美洲的交易。

And then the final one on the Transpacific volume growth, strong volume growth here.

最後一項是關於跨太平洋航線的運量成長，這裡的運量成長強勁。

Can you actually help us understand year-on-year movements there versus, say, volumes into West Coast which was not there last year, you launched those services this year, then also the impact of express service tank, basically splitting between East and West Coast would be very helpful from Asia.

您能否真正幫助我們了解那裡的逐年變化，以及去年沒有的西海岸運輸量，您今年推出了這些服務，然後還有快遞服務罐的影響，基本上分為東西兩部分亞洲的海岸將會非常有幫助。

Thank you for the questions, Sathish.

謝謝你的提問，薩蒂什。

So I'll take them one by one, starting with the first one.

所以我將從第一個開始逐一介紹它們。

If we look at the assumptions baked into our guidance, so for the fourth quarter, we are expecting indeed to continue to slightly grow our volume as we will continue also to see the effect of the incoming new capacity.

如果我們看看我們的指導中的假設，那麼對於第四季度，我們預計我們的銷量確實會繼續小幅增長，因為我們也將繼續看到新產能的影響。

We still have four vessels that will be delivered to us between now and the end of the year, while we have seven smaller ships for redelivery over the same period.

從現在到今年年底，我們仍有四艘船將交付給我們，同時我們還有七艘較小的船將在同一時期重新交付。

So net, we continue to grow our operating tonnage.

因此，我們的營運噸位持續成長。

And as a result, we also believe that we will be able to capture additional market share and fill those ships.

因此，我們也相信我們將能夠佔領更多的市場份額並填充這些船舶。

So the net 170,000 TEU that we've carried at this quarter, we are expecting to continue on the same trend into the fourth quarter.

因此，我們本季淨承運 170,000 TEU，預計第四季將繼續保持相同的趨勢。

So yes, there is still a volume growth assumptions versus last year baked into our guidance for Q4.

因此，是的，與去年相比，我們對第四季度的指導仍然存在銷售成長的假設。

In terms of rates, the -- we talked about the fact that the rate did indeed declined from the high of achieved -- reached in July, but we now see some rates stabilizing, but still on the overall, if you compare and when we will close Q4, the average freight rates per TEU carried in Q4 will not be as strong as the average freight rate of TEU carried in Q3, again, because we were through the descent in terms of spot rate environment already within the third quarter.

就利率而言，我們談到了利率確實從 7 月達到的高點下降的事實，但我們現在看到一些利率趨於穩定，但總體而言，如果你進行比較的話，當我們第四季度結束後，第四季的每標準箱平均運價將不會像第三季那樣強勁，因為我們在第三季就已經經歷了即期運價環境的下降。

So we see a stabilization now.

所以我們現在看到了穩定。

But on average, the average revenue generation per TEU carried in Q4 is expected to be less than the one in Q3.

但平均而言，第四季每標準箱的平均創收預計將低於第三季。

With regards to the question on the spot versus contract, you're right in saying that it was a very important decision that we took earlier this year to not compromise on our ask vis-a-vis our customers for minimum contract rate, that led to us being more exposed to the spot market than what we initially had planned.

關於現場與合約的問題，你說得對，我們今年早些時候做出的一個非常重要的決定，就是不妥協我們向客戶提出的最低合約費率，這導致與我們最初計劃的相比，我們更多接觸現貨市場。

That hasn't changed throughout the year for us.

對我們來說，這一點全年都沒有改變。

The contracts are being discussed and set during the contract season in a way, so in the first quarter.

合約是在合約賽季期間（第一季）進行討論和確定的。

And so as of today and as of the end of Q3, we were still operating on the 35%-65% type of split between contract and spot.

因此，截至今天和第三季末，我們仍然按照合約和現貨之間 35%-65% 的比例進行操作。

So we will enter soon into the discussions for next year, and that is going to take place early in 2025.

因此，我們將很快進入明年的討論，該討論將於 2025 年初進行。

We will see what happens there.

我們將會看到那裡會發生什麼。

But in terms of overall strategy from the company, we will most probably continue to abide by our philosophy, which is we are seeking, obviously, to lock a long-term contract, but providing only that those are being set at rates that we are happy to agree to.

但就公司的整體策略而言，我們很可能會繼續遵守我們的理念，顯然，我們正在尋求鎖定一份長期合同，但前提是這些合約的費率是我們設定的。

Third question on vessel utilization today, as I mentioned, following the Golden Week, the volume resumed but the demand went back up very rapidly thereafter.

第三個問題，今天的船舶利用率，正如我所提到的，黃金週之後，成交量有所恢復，但此後需求恢復得非常快。

And so our vessels are sailing at optimum capacity and pretty much full.

因此，我們的船隻正在以最佳運力航行，而且幾乎滿載。

So the utilization is strong, -- has been strong ever since, and we expect it to continue to be strong for the reasons have explained earlier on up until, we think, at [minimum], early next year up until Chinese New Year, which is set on 27 January and this time next year.

因此，利用率很強勁，從那時起就一直很強勁，我們預計它會繼續強勁，原因之前已解釋過，我們認為，至少到明年年初，直到農曆新年，定於1月27日和明年這個時候。

And finally, you were asking the Transpacific volume growth.

最後，您問的是跨太平洋航線的運量成長。

It's been very important for us, not only in Q3, by the way, but still since we have experienced the effect of the Red Sea disruption and the fact that we had to add capacity to the trades that we are sailing around the coast -- around the Cape.

順便說一句，這對我們來說非常重要，不僅在第三季度，而且自從我們經歷了紅海幹擾的影響以及我們必須增加我們在沿海航行的貿易的運力這一事實以來——開普敦周圍。

So we added capacity on the cross-Suez trade in order to maintain the weekly service and to capture the momentum in the freight environment.

因此，我們增加了跨蘇伊士貿易的運力，以維持每週的服務並抓住貨運環境的勢頭。

And with the ripple effect because it's pretty much the same type of ships that are being deployed also on the Transpacific.

並具有連鎖反應，因為它與跨太平洋上部署的船隻幾乎相同類型。

The Transpacific has been recovering very quickly from the low of 2023.

跨太平洋航線從 2023 年的低點開始快速復甦。

And echoing I think what the comment that Eli made, it was very important to us to maximize our earning potential.

我認為 Eli 的評論與我們相呼應，最大限度地發揮我們的盈利潛力對我們來說非常重要。

So yes, we had a very strong presence -- historical presence on the US East Coast, and we capitalized on that stronger foothold.

所以，是的，我們在美國東海岸擁有非常強大的影響力——歷史性的存在，我們利用了這個更強大的立足點。

But also in -- on the US West Coast, that's where we took a full service away from the Pacific Northwest that was not as strong in terms of demand and in terms of earnings potential and redeploy this capacity to the Pacific Southwest.

而且在美國西海岸，我們從需求和盈利潛力方面都不太強勁的太平洋西北部地區獲得了全面的服務，並將這種能力重新部署到太平洋西南部地區。

So now we end up operating two services where last year, we -- at this time, the same period last year, we had no longer any service on the Pacific Southwest.

所以現在我們最終運營了兩項服務，而去年的這個時候，去年同期，我們在太平洋西南地區不再有任何服務。

So those which are expedite service, five week type or five to six weeks full transit rotation move cargo pretty fast in a way and contribute positively, both to the revenue generation but also from a volume perspective to the carried quantities when you look at that metric in isolation.

So those which are expedite service, five week type or five to six weeks full transit rotation move cargo pretty fast in a way and contribute positively, both to the revenue generation but also from a volume perspective to the carried quantities when you look at that metric隔離中.

On the express type product, right, the express services, what type of customers are actually utilizing that service?

在快遞類產品上，對吧，快遞服務，實際上是什麼類型的客戶在使用該服務？

--

--

Yes.

是的。

I mean on this service, you have all the usual suspects that are very interested in services that cater for time-sensitive cargoes.

我的意思是，在這項服務中，所有常見的嫌疑犯都對滿足時間敏感貨物的服務非常感興趣。

So you have all the e-commerce type of businesses.

所以你擁有所有電子商務類型的業務。

So that is a significant source of cargo.

所以這是一個重要的貨物來源。

And you also have some regular cargo that is being booked on those ships also, especially nowadays with the shortage of capacity and a strong demand that is prevailing in the US.

這些船上也有一些常規貨物被預訂，特別是在目前美國運力短缺和需求強勁的情況下。

Got it.

知道了。

Maybe just -- sorry, one quick follow-up on this.

也許只是——抱歉，對此進行快速跟進。

So the point of sale on the express service, how do you classify US versus Asia on that express service?

那麼，對於快遞服務的銷售點，您如何對美國和亞洲的快遞服務進行分類？

I'm sorry, I didn't quite get that question.

抱歉，我不太明白這個問題。

Can you repeat, Sathish?

你能再說一遍嗎，薩蒂什？

So if I look at the point of sale for that express service, what is the split would look like, say, originating out of Asia versus originating out of US importers?

因此，如果我看看該快遞服務的銷售點，例如，來自亞洲的銷售點與來自美國進口商的銷售點有何不同？

Oh, I would not be able to tell you precisely here, to be frank.

哦，坦白說，我無法在這裡準確地告訴你。

I guess it's split, but the precise split between the two push export out and pull import in is something that I wouldn't want to say something that I'm 100% sure.

我猜它是分開的，但是兩個推導出和拉導入之間的精確分開是我不想說的，我百分之百確定。

And that does conclude our question-and-answer session, and I will now turn the conference back over to Eli Glickman for closing comments.

我們的問答環節就到此結束了，我現在將把會議轉回給 Eli Glickman 進行總結評論。

In summary, we are proud of ZIM's strong third quarter in which we delivered record carried volumes and outstanding financial results.

總而言之，我們對以星第三季度的強勁表現感到自豪，我們在該季度實現了創紀錄的持倉量和出色的財務業績。

This performance again illustrates our continued progress, advancing ZIM fleet transformation, enhancing our commercial agility and executing strategic objective to best position the company for long-term profitability.

這項業績再次證明了我們的持續進步，推進了以星船隊轉型，增強了我們的商業敏捷性，並執行了戰略目標，為公司的長期盈利能力提供了最佳定位。

2024 is shaping up to be the third best year ever for container shipping, following the record year of 2021 and 2022, and we are pleased to continue to capitalize on a positive rate environment that has remained stronger for longer than anticipated.

繼 2021 年和 2022 年創紀錄的一年之後，2024 年將成為貨櫃運輸有史以來第三個最好的一年，我們很高興繼續利用持續時間比預期更強勁的正利率環境。

We have once again raised our full year guidance.

我們再次上調全年指引。

As we look to the future, while market dynamics are volatile, we are confident that we have built a resilient business at ZIM with a transformed fleet.

展望未來，儘管市場動態不穩定，但我們有信心透過轉型後的機隊在以星星打造富有彈性的業務。

Our strategic transformation has put us in a stronger position than ever.

我們的策略轉型使我們處於比以往更強大的地位。

And we will continue to implement our differentiated strategy to drive the next phase of ZIM growth.

我們將繼續實施差異化策略，推動以星下一階段的成長。

Thank you again for joining us today.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。

We look forward to sharing our continued progress with you all.

我們期待與大家分享我們不斷取得的進展。

Thank you.

謝謝。