以星航運 (ZIM) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the ZIM Integrated Shipping Services first-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Elana Holzman, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加以星綜合航運服務 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謝謝。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Elana Holzman。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and welcome to ZIM's first-quarter 2024 financial results conference call. Joining me on the call today are Eli Glickman, ZIM's President and CEO; and Xavier Destriau, ZIM's CFO.

謝謝業者，歡迎參加以星 2024 年第一季財務業績電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是以星 (ZIM) 總裁兼執行長 Eli Glickman；以及以星集團財務長 Xavier Destriau。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding expectations, predictions, projections of future events or results. We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將就未來事件或結果的預期、預測、預測做出前瞻性聲明。我們相信我們的期望和假設是合理的。

We wish to caution you that such statements reflect only the company's current expectations and that actual events or results may differ, including materially. You are kindly referred to consider the risk factors and cautionary language described in the documents the company files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 2023 annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC in March 2024. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to ZIM's CEO, Eli Glickman. Eli?

我們希望提醒您，此類陳述僅反映公司目前的預期，實際事件或結果可能有所不同，包括重大差異。請您考慮本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險因素和警示性語言，包括我們於2024 年3 月向美國證券交易委員會提交的2023 年年度報告20-F 表格。義務這些前瞻性陳述。現在，我想將電話轉給 ZIM 執行長 Eli Glickman。伊萊？

Thank you, Elana, and welcome everyone. Slide number 2. ZIM began 2024 with positive momentum. We leveraged market conditions and coupled with the strong execution of the ZIM team globally, we delivered solid Q1 results.

謝謝你，埃拉娜，歡迎大家。第 2 張投影片。我們利用市場條件，再加上以星全球團隊的強大執行力，我們交付了穩健的第一季業績。

Based on current market conditions, our outlook for the remainder of the year has improved. And as such, we now expect our full year '24 financial performance to be better than our '23 results. Our strategic plan to upscale our fleet and operate larger vessels to improve our cost structure is paying off, and we believe that in '24, we will achieve our volume growth expectations outperforming the market. ZIM earning in the first quarter reflects stronger spot rates, which resulted from disruption in the global logistics supply chain.

根據當前的市場狀況，我們對今年剩餘時間的前景有所改善。因此，我們現在預計 24 年全年財務表現將優於 23 年業績。我們擴大船隊規模和營運大型船舶以改善成本結構的策略計畫正在取得成效，我們相信在 24 年，我們將實現優於市場的銷售成長預期。以星第一季的獲利反映了即期運費的走強，這是由於全球物流供應鏈的中斷所造成的。

Slide number 4, we delivered revenue of $1.56 billion and net income of $92 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $427 million and adjusted EBIT was $167 million, reflecting adjusted EBITDA margin of 27% and adjusted EBIT margin of 11%.

第 4 號投影片顯示，我們實現了 15.6 億美元的收入和 9,200 萬美元的淨利潤。調整後 EBITDA 為 4.27 億美元，調整後 EBIT 為 1.67 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 27%，調整後 EBIT 利潤率為 11%。

Our total cash position of $2.25 billion at quarter end remains strong. Our Q1 results reflect the dynamic nature of the container shipping industry. To date, tensions in the Red Sea have not eased and continue to disrupt global trade. We've seen freight rates significantly increase from November '23 lows as overcapacity in the market is being absorbed.

截至季末，我們的總現金部位為 22.5 億美元，依然強勁。我們第一季的業績反映了貨櫃運輸業的動態本質。迄今為止，紅海緊張局勢尚未緩解，並繼續擾亂全球貿易。我們看到，由於市場過剩產能正在被吸收，運費從 23 年 11 月的低點大幅上漲。

As we look forward, we expect freight rates to remain higher for longer than originally anticipated. While we cannot predict when this disruption will end, there does not seem to be a solution inside. Moreover, in recent weeks, we've seen spot rate increases leading to additional trades, which are not directly impacted by the Red Sea disruption, and which previously did not experience rate increases. Certain indications of increased demand and constraint on equipment added to the supply pressure may be the cause of this recent trend.

展望未來，我們預計運費將比最初預期的持續時間更長。雖然我們無法預測這種破壞何時結束，但內部似乎沒有解決方案。此外，最近幾週，我們看到即期匯率上漲導致了額外的交易，這些交易沒有直接受到紅海中斷的影響，而且之前也沒有經歷過利率上漲。需求增加和設備限制增加的某些跡象可能是造成這一近期趨勢的原因。

Going to slide number 5. Given this stronger rate environment now impacting more trades, our outlook for the year is more positive. Therefore, we are raising our full-year '24 guidance and now expect to generate adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.15 billion to $1.55 billion and adjusted EBIT between $0 to $400 million.

轉到第 5 張投影片。因此，我們提高了 24 年全年指引，目前預計調整後 EBITDA 在 11.5 億美元至 15.5 億美元之間，調整後 EBIT 在 0 至 4 億美元之間。

As per our dividend policy, which provides for a payout of 30% of quarterly net income, our Board of Director has declared a dividend of $0.23 per share or a total of $28 million on account of Q1 results. While the bear case scenario from a financial perspective has likely been avoided in '24, we'd like to remind you that our market is extremely volatile and that until recently, the disruptions which drove rates up were primarily supply driven. It remains to be seen whether the improved demand we are currently witnessing is sustainable and whether it would support freight rates for the remainder of '24.

根據我們的股息政策（規定支付季度淨利的 30%），我們的董事會已根據第一季業績宣布派發每股 0.23 美元的股息，即總計 2,800 萬美元。雖然從金融角度來看的熊市情景可能在 24 年已經避免，但我們想提醒您，我們的市場極度波動，直到最近，導致利率上漲的干擾主要是供應驅動的。我們目前看到的需求改善是否可持續以及是否會支撐 24 年剩餘時間的運費還有待觀察。

Overall market dynamics still point to supply growth significantly, outpacing demand growth with significant deliveries this year and to a lesser extent next year as well. As such, our longer-term expectation for the market has not changed.

整體市場動態仍顯示供應成長顯著，今年交付量顯著超過需求成長，明年交付量也將減少。因此，我們對市場的長期預期並沒有改變。

It remains our view that once the Red Sea crisis is resolved, we will likely revert to the supply demand scenario that had begun to play out in '23. We maintain the view that the industry will face a more challenging second half of this year, irrespective of the duration of the Red Sea crisis as more new builds, particularly large capacity vessels are delivered. This will likely adversely affect our results in the third and fourth quarters.

我們仍然認為，一旦紅海危機得到解決，我們可能會回到 23 年開始出現的供需情境。我們仍然認為，無論紅海危機持續多久，隨著更多新船、特別是大容量船舶的交付，該行業今年下半年將面臨更具挑戰性的局面。這可能會對我們第三季和第四季的業績產生不利影響。

We continue to assume that the second half of '24 might be weaker than the first half. Xavier, our CFO, will discuss additional factors driving our '24 guidance in his prepared comments. Before I turn the call over to him, I would like to provide an operational and commercial update and highlight ZIM's progress, executing strategic objectives thus far in ['24].

我們繼續假設 24 年下半年可能會弱於上半年。我們的財務長澤維爾 (Xavier) 將在他準備好的評論中討論推動我們 24 年指導的其他因素。在我將電話轉給他之前，我想提供營運和商業方面的最新情況，並重點介紹 ZIM 的進展以及迄今為止在 ['24] 中執行的策略目標。

Going to slide number 6, our transformation is well underway and has begun to produce tangible results. We are very pleased with our progress and are confident that with respect to our fleet and cost structure, ZIM will emerge in a stronger position in '25 and beyond as our transformation continues to deliver incremental benefits.

轉到第 6 張投影片，我們的轉型正在順利進行，並已開始產生實際的成果。我們對我們所取得的進展感到非常滿意，並相信就我們的船隊和成本結構而言，隨著我們的轉型繼續帶來增量效益，以星將在 25 年及以後佔據更強大的地位。

The final pillar of ZIM's transformation with our fleet renewal progress -- is our fleet renewal program executed to enable more efficient and competitive operations. We secured a total of 46 newbuild containers shipped, of which 28 are LNG powered. Today, 13 newbuild vessels have already been delivered to us, including all 10, 15,000 TEU LNG vessels and 9 out of 18, 8,000 TEU LNG-powered vessels, which we are deploying on the strategic Asia to the US East Coast trade.

以星機隊更新進程的轉型的最後一個支柱是執行機隊更新計劃，以實現更有效率、更具競爭力的營運。我們總共運輸了 46 個新建貨櫃，其中 28 個是液化天然氣動力的。目前，已有13 艘新建船舶交付給我們，其中包括全部10 艘15,000 TEU 液化天然氣船舶以及18 艘8,000 TEU 液化天然氣動力船舶中的9 艘，我們將這些船舶部署在亞洲至美國東海岸的戰略貿易航線上。

Our new fleet, improve our cost structure and support long-term profitable growth. Importantly, these new vessels are more modern, fuel-efficient, larger, and better suited to the trades in which we operate. This continues to reduce our cost per TEU as this cost effective newbuild vessels are replacing older, less efficient, and more expensive charter capacity.

我們的新機隊改善了我們的成本結構並支持長期獲利成長。重要的是，這些新船更現代化、更省油、更大，更適合我們經營的行業。這繼續降低了我們每個標準箱的成本，因為這種具有成本效益的新建船舶正在取代舊的、效率較低且更昂貴的包租能力。

Moving forward, we expect to continue seeing gradual cost per TEU improvement as we meet our volume growth targets. In addition to improving our cost structure and enabling long-term sustainable growth, our fleet-renewal program addresses a central objective of our ESG roadmap, reduce the environmental impact of our operations, and help fight climate change.

展望未來，隨著我們實現銷售成長目標，我們預計每 TEU 成本將繼續逐步改善。除了改善我們的成本結構和實現長期永續成長之外，我們的機隊更新計畫還實現了 ESG 路線圖的核心目標，減少我們營運對環境的影響，並幫助應對氣候變遷。

The benefit of our new fleet from an environmental perspective are worth mentioning again. Next year, once we receive all our newbuilds and we deliver existing charter tonnage, over 50% of our operated capacity is expected to be newbuild. Approximately 40% of our operated capacity is expected to be LNG-powered, making ZIM among the lowest carbon intensity carriers in the world. Already today, 30% of our capacity is LNG-powered, and we operate the greenest fleet in terms of use of alternative fuels.

我們的新機隊從環境角度來看的好處值得再次提及。明年，一旦我們收到所有新建船舶並交付現有的包機噸位，預計我們將有超過 50% 的營運能力是新建船舶。預計我們約 40% 的營運運力將由液化天然氣提供動力，這使得以星集團成為全球碳強度最低的承運商之一。如今，我們 30% 的產能由液化天然氣提供動力，我們經營著在使用替代燃料方面最環保的船隊。

Sustainability is a core value for ZIM, and we are pleased to have recently publish our sixth annual ESG reports. It outlines how ZIM has addressed the increasing demand from our various stakeholders for a more proactive ESG approach. And then in '23, ZIM achieved a 23% drop in carbon intensity of our operation compared to the prior year. This was driven in part by our new LNG vessels, which replaced older vessels and significantly cut our carbon emissions.

永續發展是以星星的核心價值，我們很高興最近發布了第六份年度 ESG 報告。它概述了以星如何滿足各利益相關者對更積極主動的 ESG 方法日益增長的需求。然後在 2023 年，以星集團的營運碳強度比前一年下降了 23%。這在一定程度上是由於我們的新液化天然氣船取代了舊船並顯著減少了我們的碳排放。

We also decreased vessels speed and added vessels to routes to comply with emerging regulations. We are proud of the progress we made in '23 and are well on our way to reaching our target of reducing carbon intensity by 30% by '25 versus our '21 baseline. We remain committed to reducing our GHG emissions to net zero by 2050, a more ambitious target than the one set by the IMO.

我們還降低了船舶航速，並在航線上增加了船舶，以遵守新的法規。我們對 23 年的進展感到自豪，並且正在順利實現到 25 年將碳強度較 21 年基線降低 30% 的目標。我們仍然致力於在 2050 年將溫室氣體排放量減少到淨零，這是比 IMO 設定的目標更雄心勃勃的目標。

We recognize that the implementation of ESG-focused strategies is an ongoing process, and we'll continue to prioritize, promoting responsible corporate practice to create long-term sustainable value for all our stakeholders. Operationally, we also remain focused on aligning our fleet size with demand levels and rationalizing our fleet to minimize cash burn. At the beginning of this year, we had a total of 32 vessels up for renewal in '24. Thus far, we've redelivered 11 vessels and anticipate the remainder would be redelivered over the course of the year.

我們認識到，實施以 ESG 為重點的策略是一個持續的過程，我們將繼續優先考慮，促進負責任的企業實踐，為所有利害關係人創造長期可持續的價值。在營運方面，我們也繼續專注於使我們的機隊規模與需求水準保持一致，並對我們的機隊進行合理化，以最大限度地減少現金消耗。今年年初，我們共有 32 艘船舶需要在 24 年進行更新。到目前為止，我們已經重新交付了 11 艘船舶，預計其餘船舶將在今年內重新交付。

Turning next to our network of services. The agile nature of our commercial strategy has continued to serve ZIM well. During the first quarter, we continued to adapt our network to changing customer demand. In Q1, we grew our volume on trans-pacific, leveraging our larger capacity vessels and new lines open to LA and Vancouver.

接下來談談我們的服務網絡。我們商業策略的敏捷性繼續為以星提供了良好的服務。第一季度，我們繼續調整我們的網路以適應不斷變化的客戶需求。在第一季度，我們利用容量更大的船舶以及通往洛杉磯和溫哥華的新航線，增加了跨太平洋航線的運量。

We maintained our unique commercial position on this strategic trade for ZIM as the only carrier to call the US East Coast with LNG-fueled vessels. In fact, we operate LNG vessels on two different services in this trade. As the only carrier able to offer shippers a pathway to significantly reduce carbon emissions on this trade, we believe that our differentiated offering enhances our competitive position in support of volume growth target.

作為唯一擁有液化天然氣燃料船舶停靠美國東海岸的承運人，我們在這項戰略貿易中保持了獨特的商業地位。事實上，我們在該行業中運營兩種不同服務的液化天然氣船。作為唯一能夠為托運人提供顯著減少該貿易碳排放的途徑的承運人，我們相信我們的差異化產品將增強我們在支持數量增長目標方面的競爭地位。

We are also pleased with our growing volume in Latin America. We opened several new lines in '23 in this trade and continue to expand our network in Q1. As we have discussed previously, Latin America has been a focal point for us where we see long-term growth and profitability potential. On this note, I will turn the call over to Xavier, our CFO for a more detailed discussion of our financial results, our revised '24 guidance as well as additional comments for the market environment. Xavier, please.

我們也對我們在拉丁美洲的銷量不斷增長感到高興。我們在 23 年在該行業開設了幾條新線路，並在第一季繼續擴大我們的網路。正如我們之前討論的那樣，拉丁美洲一直是我們的重點，我們看到了那裡的長期成長和獲利潛力。就此而言，我將把電話轉給我們的財務長 Xavier，以更詳細地討論我們的財務業績、修訂後的 24 年指導以及對市場環境的其他評論。澤維爾，請。

Thank you, Eli, and again, welcome, everyone. On the slide 7, we present key financial and operational highlights. And as Eli mentioned, our first-quarter financial results reflect the improved freight rates that mostly ensued from the Red Sea disruptions.

謝謝你，伊萊，再次歡迎大家。在幻燈片 7 中，我們展示了主要的財務和營運亮點。正如伊萊所提到的，我們第一季的財務表現反映出運費率的提高，這主要是由於紅海中斷造成的。

Team generated revenue of $1.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024, a 14% increase compared to the first quarter of last year. Our average freight rate per TEU was $1,452, a year over year increase of 4% and a 32% increase from the prior quarter. Total revenue from non containerized cargo, which reflects mostly our car carrier services totaled $111 million for the quarter, compared to $106 million in the first quarter of 2023.

Team 在 2024 年第一季實現營收 16 億美元，比去年第一季成長 14%。我們的每 TEU 平均運費為 1,452 美元，較去年同期成長 4%，較上季成長 32%。本季非貨櫃貨物的總收入（主要反映了我們的汽車運輸服務）總計 1.11 億美元，而 2023 年第一季為 1.06 億美元。

While we operated more vessels in the current quarter, revenues are only slightly up due to the longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope in the current quarter. Our free cash flow in the first quarter totaled $303 million compared to $142 million in the first quarter of 2023. Turning to the balance sheet, total debt increased by $359 million since prior year end, mainly due to the net effect of the incoming larger vessels with longer term charter durations.

雖然我們在本季度運營了更多船舶，但由於本季好望角周圍的航程較長，收入僅略有增長。我們第一季的自由現金流總計為3.03 億美元，而2023 年第一季為1.42 億美元。的淨影響租期較長。

Regarding our fleet, we currently operate 147 vessels, out of which 60 are car carriers as compared to 150 vessels as of our Q4 earnings call in mid-March. The slight decrease from March resulted from the delivery of six newbuilds and the scheduled redelivery of nine vessels.

關於我們的船隊，我們目前營運 147 艘船舶，其中 60 艘是汽車運輸船，而截至 3 月中旬的第四季財報電話會議，我們擁有 150 艘船舶。較 3 月略有下降的原因是六艘新船的交付和九艘計劃的重新交付。

We'd like to remind you that while we may continue to operate a similar number of vessels or even fewer vessels, our operating capacity has grown in 2023 and will continue to grow this year. We are replacing smaller vessels, less cost-effective tonage with larger, more cost-efficient, newbuild tonnage, thereby contributing to lowered unit cost per TEU. Moreover, these vessels are also better suited to the trade in which they are being deployed, again, enhancing our strategic positioning.

我們想提醒您，雖然我們可能會繼續運營類似數量的船舶甚至更少的船舶，但我們的營運能力在 2023 年有所增長，並將在今年繼續增長。我們正在用更大、更具成本效益的新建噸位取代較小、成本效益較低的船舶，從而有助於降低每個標準箱的單位成本。此外，這些船隻也更適合它們所部署的產業，再次增強了我們的策略定位。

As of today's call, 30 of the 46 newbuild vessels ZIM has committed to have joined our fleet, including 10, 15,000 TEU LNG vessels; 4, 12,000 TEU vessels; 9, 8,000 TEU LNG vessels; and 7 of the smaller wide-beam 5,500 and 5,300 TEU ships. Excluding the newbuild capacity, the average remaining duration of our charter tonnage continues to trend down and is now 19.7 months compared to 20.4 months in mid-March.

截至今天的電話會議，以星集團承諾加入的 46 艘新建船舶中，有 30 艘已加入我們的船隊，其中包括 10 艘 15,000 TEU 液化天然氣船； 4、12000TEU船舶； 9艘、8000TEU液化天然氣船；以及 7 艘較小的寬梁 5,500 和 5,300 TEU 船舶。不包括新建運力，我們的租船噸位平均剩餘期限持續呈下降趨勢，目前為 19.7 個月，而 3 月中旬為 20.4 個月。

We have a total of 21 vessels up for charter renewal in the remainder of 2024 as compared to the expected delivery of 16 newbuilds during this period. In addition, we have another 37 vessels up for renewal in 2025. And as we previously highlighted, this gives us ample flexibility to ensure our fleet size matches the market opportunities.

我們共有 21 艘船舶需要在 2024 年剩餘時間內進行續租，而在此期間預計交付 16 艘新船。此外，我們還有另外 37 艘船舶計劃在 2025 年進行更新。

Turning now to additional Q1 financial metrics on slide 9. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $427 million compared to $373 million in Q1 2023, reflecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27% in both periods. Adjusted EBIT was $167 million or 11% margin, compared to an EBIT loss of $14 million in the same quarter of last year. Net income for the first quarter was $92 million compared to a net loss of $58 million in Q1 2023.

現在轉向幻燈片9 上的其他第一季財務指標。 。調整後息稅前利潤為 1.67 億美元，利潤率為 11%，而去年同期息稅前利潤虧損 1,400 萬美元。第一季淨利潤為 9,200 萬美元，而 2023 年第一季淨虧損為 5,800 萬美元。

We do remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. And as such, our Board of Directors declared a dividend to shareholders of $0.23 per share or a total of $28 million, which reflects a payout of 30% of Q1 net income as per our current dividend policy.

我們仍然致力於向股東返還資本。因此，我們的董事會宣布向股東派發每股 0.23 美元的股息，即總計 2800 萬美元，這反映了根據我們當前的股息政策支付的第一季淨利潤的 30%。

Turning now to slide 10, we carried 846,000 TEUs in the first quarter compared to 769,000 TEUs during the same period last year. That is an increase of 10%, slightly ahead of market growth of 9%. As we discussed, we grew our volume on the transpacific in Q1, attributable to our larger capacity vessels and also new lines.

現在轉向幻燈片 10，我們第一季運送了 846,000 個標準箱，而去年同期為 769,000 個標準箱。即成長了 10%，略高於市場成長 9%。正如我們所討論的，我們在第一季跨太平洋航線的貨運量有所增長，這要歸功於我們更大容量的船舶和新航線。

Transpacific volume grew 27% year over year, and we expect to see continued volume growth during the remainder of 2024 as we continue to upsize our capacity. Significant growth in Latin America volumes of 129% year over year was driven by our expanded presence in this trade. We see additional opportunities to participate in the growth of that trade.

跨太平洋航線運量年增 27%，隨著我們繼續擴大運力，我們預計 2024 年剩餘時間內運量將持續成長。由於我們在拉丁美洲的業務不斷擴大，拉丁美洲的銷量較去年同期大幅成長 129%。我們看到了參與該貿易成長的更多機會。

Next, we present our cash flow bridge. For the quarter, our adjusted EBITDA of $427 million is converted into $326 million of cash flow generated from operating activities. Other cash flow of significant items for the quarter is obviously $740 million of debt service, mostly related to our lease liability repayments.

接下來，我們介紹我們的現金流橋。本季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.27 億美元，轉換為經營活動產生的 3.26 億美元現金流。本季其他重要項目的現金流顯然是 7.4 億美元的償債，主要與我們的租賃負債償還有關。

It is here -- important, however, to remember that the lease liability repayments in Q1 included $235 million, reflecting down-payment for six LNG vessels that we received during the quarter and also payments for the five vessels following an early notice for the exercise of purchase options we have on these vessels as we already previously mentioned on our March call.

然而，重要的是要記住，第一季的租賃負債償還額包括2.35 億美元，反映了我們在本季度收到的六艘液化天然氣船的首付款，以及在提前通知演習後為五艘船支付的款項正如我們之前在三月的電話會議中提到的那樣，我們在這些船舶上擁有多種購買選擇。

Moving now to our 2024 guidance, as you heard from Eli, our outlook for the remainder of 2024 is stronger than previously assumed, based on the evolving market and as a result, our financial performance in 2024 is now expected to be better than our 2023 results. We are raising our full year guidance and now expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between $1.15 billion and $1.55 billion in 2024 and adjusted EBIT between $0 and $400 million.

現在轉向我們的2024 年指導，正如您從Eli 那裡聽到的那樣，根據不斷變化的市場，我們對2024 年剩餘時間的展望比之前的假設要強，因此，我們2024 年的財務業績預計將好於2023 年結果。我們正在提高全年指引，目前預計 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 為 11.5 億美元至 15.5 億美元，調整後 EBIT 為 0 至 4 億美元。

Our improved guidance is driven primarily by the strength we are seeing in spot rates. This in turn contributed to a higher freight rate assumptions incorporated into our current guidance as compared to the freight rate assumptions we incorporated into the guidance we provided back in March.

我們改進的指引主要是由我們所看到的即期匯率的強勁所推動的。與我們在 3 月提供的指導中納入的運費假設相比，這反過來又導致我們目前指導中納入的運費假設更高。

Before touching on the volume and bunker cost assumptions, I'd like to briefly discuss the contract season and how it plays out. It plays into our outlook for the remainder of the year. So for the year ahead, our spot exposure in the transpacific trade will remain relatively high as the new annual transpacific contract, which went into effect on May 1 represent approximately 35% of our expected transpacific volume.

在討論數量和燃油成本假設之前，我想先簡單討論一下合約季節及其進展。它影響我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。因此，未來一年，我們在跨太平洋貿易中的現貨敞口將保持相對較高，因為 5 月 1 日生效的新年度跨太平洋合約約佔我們預期跨太平洋交易量的 35%。

We chose to revisit our commercial approach of roughly 50%-50% split between spot and contract volume, given our expectation that the average spot rates for transpacific for the next 12 months will likely outperform the prevailing contract rates, which were only slightly better than last year's rates. Believe that our value proposition to customers operating LNG vessels on this trade will help us achieve our volume growth objectives while leveraging the stronger spot rate environment.

鑑於我們預計跨太平洋航線未來 12 個月的平均即期費率可能會優於現行合約費率，而現行合約費率僅略好於去年的費率。相信我們對在該貿易中運營液化天然氣船舶的客戶的價值主張將幫助我們實現銷售成長目標，同時利用更強勁的即期匯率環境。

Our volume assumptions for our 2024 guidance remain unchanged, and we expect our volume growth this year to outpace market growth as we continue to upsize our fleet and increase operated capacity. Bunker cost on the other hand are slightly higher as compared to the underlying assumptions for the guidance we provided in March.

我們對 2024 年指導的銷售假設保持不變，隨著我們繼續擴大機隊規模和增加營運能力，我們預計今年的銷售成長將超過市場成長。另一方面，與我們三月提供的指導的基本假設相比，燃油成本略高。

Moving to our market discussion with some data point on our commentary so far, market evolution since November 2023 has demonstrated the volatile nature of our industry. The underlying supply demand balance for 2024 has been and remains one of significant oversupply as you can see in the graph on the left.

轉向我們的市場討論，並提供迄今為止我們評論中的一些數據點，自 2023 年 11 月以來的市場演變已經證明了我們行業的波動性。如左圖所示，2024 年的基本供需平衡一直是且仍然是嚴重的供應過剩之一。

Events external to our industry, namely the security concerns in the Red Sea, have caused most global carriers to redivert the ships around the Cape of Good Hope. This has extended voyage durations to North Europe, the Mediterranean, and to a certain extent to the US East Coast, absorbing significant capacity, bringing the supply-demand balance to a certain equilibrium.

我們行業外部的事件，即紅海的安全問題，已導致大多數全球承運人將船舶重新轉移到好望角附近。這延長了北歐、地中海航線，並在一定程度上延長了美國東海岸的航程，吸收了大量運力，使供需平衡達到一定平衡。

Yet the strength in spot rates of recent weeks extends beyond these trades, which were directly impacted by the Red Sea diversions. As you can see, the improvement in spot rates in Asia to US East Coast, which we saw from December until mid-January, eased when the initial impact of the extended rotations was normalized.

然而，最近幾週即期匯率的強勢不僅限於這些受到紅海改道直接影響的交易。正如您所看到的，從 12 月到 1 月中旬，亞洲到美國東海岸的即期運價有所改善，隨著延長輪換的最初影響正常化，這種改善有所緩解。

But as we mentioned earlier, we now see a second wave of spot rate hikes with the improvement in freight rates also spilling over to additional trades. We show here SCFI rates for regional trades, including Africa, Latin America, and Oceania.

但正如我們之前提到的，我們現在看到第二波即期運價上漲，運費的改善也波及到更多的交易。我們在此顯示區域貿易的 SCFI 匯率，包括非洲、拉丁美洲和大洋洲。

This recent, more widespread strength in rates is attributable to indications of equipment constraints, coupled with improved demand. CTS data for Q1 2024 shows a healthy start of the year. As already mentioned, global volume for Q1 2024 is up 9% compared to Q1 last year and tracking similar volume to Q1 in 2022 and Q1 2021. This suggests that the destocking cycle, which started in the second half of 2022 may have ended.

最近，利率更廣泛的上漲歸因於設備限制的跡像以及需求的改善。 2024 年第一季的 CTS 數據顯示今年開局良好。如前所述，2024 年第一季的全球銷售量比去年第一季成長了9%，並且與2022 年第一季和2021 年第一季的銷售相似。週期可能已經結束。

However, on the right, you can see the recent increase in the Ocean Timeliness Indicator. The OTI measures the journey of a container from the time it is set to leave a factory to the time it is picked up from its destination port. This increase suggests some stress in the global supply chain.

然而，在右側，您可以看到海洋及時性指標最近有所增加。 OTI 測量貨櫃從離開工廠到從目的港提貨的整個過程。這一增長表明全球供應鏈面臨一些壓力。

Therefore, it remains to be seen, If the current uptick in demand is in fact the beginning of a restocking cycle that would translate into a more prolonged and sustainable improvement in demand and that could continue to support freight rates or whether this increase is simply shippers, erring on the side of caution and ordering peak season cargo early to ensure they have it available for the holiday season, signaling only a shift in the timing of peak season demand. On this note, we will open the call for questions. Thank you.

因此，目前的需求上升是否實際上是補貨週期的開始，這將轉化為更持久和可持續的需求改善，並可能繼續支撐運費，或者這種增長是否只是托運人的影響，還有待觀察。為此，我們將開始提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Omar Nokta，Jefferies。

Thank you. Hi, Eli and Xavier. Good afternoon. Just three questions from me. And maybe the first one, just wanted to ask, clearly the market's taken off. It seems much more broad stroke than what we saw earlier this year as you're just highlighting Xavier. And on slide 14, we've got multiple geographies that are now seeing higher rates. And it's not just Asia, Europe, and a little bit of the transpacific like we saw at the beginning of the year.

謝謝。嗨，伊萊和澤維爾。午安.我只問三個問題。也許第一個，只是想問，顯然市場已經起飛。這似乎比我們今年早些時候看到的更廣泛，因為你只是強調了澤維爾。在投影片 14 上，我們發現多個地區的利率現在都在上升。不只是亞洲、歐洲，還有一些跨太平洋地區，就像我們在今年年初看到的那樣。

How would you characterize what's really behind this? Is this a supply-driven dynamic or demand? You mentioned just now that it's due to a shortage in equipment. From your perspective and your lens, what has caused this equipment shortage to take place? And is it a sudden occurrence or is it something that's been gradually building up since the beginning of the year?

您如何描述背後的真正原因？這是供應驅動的動力還是需求驅動的動力？你剛才提到這是因為設備短缺。從您的角度和鏡頭來看，是什麼導致了設備短缺的發生？這是突然發生的事情，還是從年初以來逐漸累積起來的事情？

We see both, supply side effect and demand side effect. As for the supply side, as a result of the Houthis crisis and bubble mandate, Suez Canal versus going through the Cape of Good Hope, Africa, much longer many more days. In order to keep our weekly services, we made about 50% more vessels to keep the weekly service. As I said, this affect the supply side.

我們看到供給面效應和需求面效應。至於供應方面，由於胡塞危機和泡沫授權，蘇伊士運河比穿越非洲好望角要長很多天。為了維持每週的服務，我們增加了約 50% 的船隻來維持每週的服務。正如我所說，這會影響供給面。

In order to keep the service because we spend more time on the way, we need more containers. Because of that, not in ZIM, in the industry, we feel there is shortage in the container. We've seen full capacity, and we plan it in advance, and we are ready to serve this high effect of the supply side.

為了保持服務，因為我們在路上花了更多的時間，我們需要更多的容器。因此，不是在以星，而是在整個產業，我們感到貨櫃短缺。我們已經看到了滿載的產能，我們提前進行了規劃，我們已經準備好服務於供給側的這種高效應。

On top of that, there is the demand side. We see in the last few weeks, early than we expected, high demand side, mainly from the US. This time, compared to the beginning of the Houthis crisis, high rates and the high demand is not coming from the US or the services from Asia to the US only or the Asia to the Mediterranean, but we see it all over. Asia to West Coast Africa, Asia to India, Asia to Oceania. We see it, Asia to South America. We see it from Asia to the West Coast of Central America, Mexico, and West Coast of South America. And as I said, Asia to the US, both East Cost and West Coast.

除此之外，還有需求方面。過去幾週，我們看到需求旺盛，主要來自美國，早於我們的預期。這一次，與胡塞危機開始時相比，高費率和高需求不僅來自美國，也不僅僅來自亞洲到美國或亞洲到地中海的服務，但我們看到這一切都結束了。亞洲到非洲西海岸，亞洲到印度，亞洲到大洋洲。從亞洲到南美，我們都看到了。從亞洲到中美洲西海岸、墨西哥和南美洲西海岸我們都能看到它。正如我所說，從亞洲到美國，包括東海岸和西海岸。

So this is the real question. In the past, let's say -- speaking about the US market, we see a very interesting case. We see unemployment, very low, historical level. We see high inflation. In the past, these two, high inflation and low unemployment did not live together because low unemployment bring lower demand for employees, and we see the effect of low inflation.

所以這是真正的問題。過去，說到美國市場，我們看到一個非常有趣的案例。我們看到失業率非常低，處於歷史水準。我們看到高通膨。過去，高通膨和低失業率這兩者並沒有共存，因為低失業率帶來了對僱員的需求降低，而我們看到了低通膨的效果。

Here, we see both low unemployment and high inflation probably, so more companies trying to attract employees really to pay them high salaries. And the people, the consumer in the US have more money to spend.

在這裡，我們可能會看到低失業率和高通膨，因此更多的公司試圖吸引員工，真正支付他們高薪。美國的人民、消費者有更多的錢可以花。

We didn't -- we really don't know if this early demand coming, as I said, because of the early demand for the season, Thanksgiving, and Christmas holidays, this is because of low inventory. As you remember, after the COVID, the inventory level in the US was on the high side and companies reduced the orders because of that.

我們沒有——我們真的不知道這種早期需求是否會到來，正如我所說，因為季節、感恩節和聖誕節假期的早期需求，這是因為庫存低。如您所知，新冠疫情發生後，美國庫存水準偏高，企業因此減少了訂單。

As of today and what we understand, the inventories there was in the US in the low side. And because of that, we see high demand. The real question, if this demand is going to stay with us until after the holiday season or this is a short season high demand because of what I described. Xavier, if you would like to add.

截至今天，據我們了解，美國的庫存處於較低水準。正因為如此，我們看到了很高的需求。真正的問題是，這種需求是否會持續到假期結束後，或者由於我所描述的原因，這是一個短季的高需求。澤維爾，如果你想補充的話。

No, I guess that addresses your question, Omar. Unless it doesn't, let me know. But clearly, the vessel shortage triggered equipment shortage. And now, as Eli mentioned, we also see the uptick in demand in the US which is a providing further support at the end of the day to the right environment.

不，我想這解決了你的問題，奧馬爾。除非沒有，請告訴我。但顯然，船隻短缺引發了設備短缺。現在，正如 Eli 所提到的，我們也看到美國的需求上升，這最終為正確的環境提供了進一步的支持。

Yeah, makes sense. Thank you for the detail. And maybe as a second question, follow-up perhaps to that dynamic is, there's a shortage in vessel capacity. We've seen a big jump in appetite on the part of other ocean carriers to secure ships on charter. ZIM has been focused on returning ships back to their owners.

是的，有道理。謝謝你的詳細資料。也許作為第二個問題，這種動態的後續可能是，船舶運力短缺。我們看到其他海運承運人對包租船舶的興趣大幅增加。以星一直致力於將船舶歸還給其所有者。

You highlighted the 21 that remained for this year and 37 that roll off in '25. What's your plan you think with those? Has your thought changed at all about returning all of them? Or do you look to retain some given the change in market dynamics?

您重點介紹了今年保留的 21 個項目和 25 年淘汰的 37 個項目。你對這些有什麼計畫？您對於歸還所有這些物品的想法是否發生了變化？或者考慮到市場動態的變化，您是否希望保留一些？

Look, I would say, first, unlike other shipping line, as far as we are concerned, we had already or we expected a significant increase in our operating tonnage throughout 2024 by just simply taking delivery of all the newbuild that we ordered back in '21, '22. Reminding that our operating capacity is expected to increase more than the double-digit compared to end of 2023, if we look at what our capacity will be by the end of 2024 and we compare it with what it was at the end of 2023, by just taking all the 46 ships that we ordered and redelivering all the vessels that came up for renewal, we would de facto increase our operating tonnage meaningfully and significantly.

我想說，首先，與其他航運公司不同，就我們而言，我們已經或預計透過簡單地接收我們在 2024 年訂購的所有新船，我們的營運噸位將在 2024 年大幅增加。 .提醒一下，與 2023 年底相比，我們的營運能力預計將增加兩位數以上，如果我們看看到 2024 年底我們的產能將達到多少，並將其與 2023 年底的情況進行比較，只要收回我們訂購的所有46 艘船舶並重新交付所有需要更新的船舶，我們實際上就能有意義且顯著地增加我們的營運噸位。

I think, by and large, as we speak today, our long-term view or mid-term view has not changed. So we are redelivering the vessels that come up for renewal in order to make room for still 16 ships that we are awaiting between now and the end of the year. On a case-by-case basis, we will reassess, and we always reassess at every single occasion, whether we might want to keep or renew for a short period some of the ship. But high and large, the objective and the strategy, I think, remain unchanged.

我認為，總的來說，正如我們今天所說，我們的長期觀點或中期觀點並沒有改變。因此，我們正在重新交付需要更新的船舶，以便為從現在到今年年底我們仍在等待的 16 艘船舶騰出空間。我們將根據具體情況重新評估，而且我們總是在每次情況下重新評估，是否要短期保留或更新部分船舶。但我認為，高大上的目標和策略保持不變。

Got it. Thank you. And final one from me. And you discussed this a bit in the cash bridge in your slides, the $235 million of upfront payments that you've made during the quarter. If I recall there maybe $340 million in total for those Seaspan leases due this year, is that roughly the math? And how much should we expect will be spent in the, say, next quarter or over the next three quarters?

知道了。謝謝。最後一張是我的。您在幻燈片的現金橋樑中對此進行了一些討論，即您在本季支付的 2.35 億美元預付款。如果我記得今年到期的西斯潘租賃合約總額可能為 3.4 億美元，這是大致的數學數字嗎？我們預計下個季度或未來三個季度將花費多少？

Yes, you have the numbers more or less right. There's one, maybe, clarification I should give. So for the full 2024, so from January 1 up until December 31, yes, the expectation is or is going to be an overall total payment of $339 million for the delivery of all those new building.

是的，你的數字或多或少是正確的。也許我應該澄清一點。因此，對於整個 2024 年，從 1 月 1 日到 12 月 31 日，所有這些新建築的交付預計將支付 3.39 億美元。

In the first quarter, so looking at the cash flow statement in Q1, we incurred $106 million of down payment as we took delivery of two, 15,000 TEU ships and four, 8,000 TEU ships. So that's 4 times 20 plus 2 times 13, that's the 106.

第一季度，從第一季的現金流量表來看，我們接收了兩艘15,000 TEU船舶和四艘8,000 TEU船舶，因此支付了1.06億美元的首付款。 4 乘以 20 再加上 2 乘以 13，就是 106。

And then, $130 million we paid as well as we exercised the right to acquire the option that we had on the five large capacity vessels, a three 10,000 TEU and a two 8,500 that we acquired in Q1. So the $235 million this quarter is the combination of both, $106 million down payment and a $129 million of exercising the option on the five vessels.

然後，我們支付了 1.3 億美元，並行使了購買我們在第一季購買的五艘大容量船舶（三艘 10,000 TEU 和兩艘 8,500 TEU）的選擇權的權利。因此，本季的 2.35 億美元是 1.06 億美元的首付和 1.29 億美元的五艘船選擇權行使費的總和。

Okay, got it. The remaining $233 million is, I would assume, just evenly split for the rest of the year.

好，知道了。我認為剩下的 2.33 億美元將在今年剩餘時間內平分。

Give or take, yes.

給予或索取，是的。

Okay, very good. Thank you very much for the time. I'll turn it over.

好的，非常好。非常感謝您抽出時間。我會把它翻過來。

Muneeba Kayani, Bank of America.

Muneeba Kayani，美國銀行。

Thank you for taking my questions. So firstly, I just wanted to understand your EBITDA guidance and the phasing of it. We've heard from some of the other liners that 2Q EBITDA could be better than the first quarter. So firstly, is that your expectation, given what you've seen so far in the second quarter? And then if that's the case, that would imply, you're assuming fairly low profitability in the third quarter and fourth quarter. So if you -- can you please help us understand how you're [talking] about the phasing this year?

感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我只是想了解你們的 EBITDA 指導及其分階段。我們從其他一些班輪公司聽說，第二季的 EBITDA 可能會比第一季好。首先，考慮到您在第二季度到目前為止所看到的情況，這是您的預期嗎？如果是這樣的話，那就意味著你假設第三季和第四季的獲利能力相當低。那麼，如果您—您能否幫助我們了解您如何[談論]今年的分階段實施？

Yes, I will begin. Xavier will follow. First, we are very positive. And as we said, we are in positive momentum. As we said, '24 results are going to be better than '23 result as we see the forecast of today.

是的，我要開始了。澤維爾將跟隨。首先，我們非常積極。正如我們所說，我們正處於積極的勢頭。正如我們所說，正如我們今天的預測所示，24 年的結果將好於 23 年的結果。

As for your question for quarter, we don't -- we try to keep not to go to quarterly results, but we're speaking about guidance for the year, not for the quarters. You can understand and I give you the credit to understand and to take the conclusion that we believe that and we said it in the past that the first half is going to be stronger than the second half. And this is because we are trying to be cautious as we don't know yet when the Houthis crisis is going to be ended.

至於你關於季度的問題，我們不會——我們盡量不去公佈季度業績，但我們談論的是全年的指導，而不是季度的指導。你可以理解，我相信你會理解並得出我們相信的結論，我們過去說過，上半場會比下半場更強。這是因為我們試圖保持謹慎，因為我們還不知道胡塞危機何時結束。

Ad in order to be conservative and we don't know to expect in advance what will be with the Houthis and the supply side effect, we are trying to be conservative for the second half. As of result and what we can see today, as I said before, the first half is going to be strong and '24 result are going to be stronger than '23.

為了保持保守，我們不知道提前預期胡塞武裝和供應方面的影響會發生什麼，我們正在努力在下半年保持保守。就結果以及我們今天所看到的情況而言，正如我之前所說，上半場將會很強勁，24 年的結果將比 23 年更強。

Yeah. So I'd believe. I'd just indeed add that it is, I'm sure everybody understand, very difficult to forecast and predict what's going to happen and how the situation will unfold in the coming quarters as there are a lot of events that, at the end of the day, drive the current uptick in the market that are potentially also the results of geopolitical event that nobody has a clear control over.

是的。所以我相信。我確實想補充一點，我相信每個人都明白，很難預測和預測未來幾季會發生什麼以及情況將如何發展，因為有很多事件，在年底當天，推動市場當前上漲，這也可能是無人能明確控制的地緣政治事件的結果。

So clearly, what we can say at this stage is that, as Eli just said, the beginning of the year is much better than what we initially anticipated. But if we look at the fundamental dynamics of our industry, if we leave aside for a second the disruptions that we talked about just now, but if we look at the fundamental supply-demand dynamic of our industry, we are still in a situation whereby the threat of overcapacity is still around there -- around us.

很明顯，現階段我們可以說的是，正如伊萊剛才所說，今年年初比我們最初預期的要好得多。但是，如果我們看看我們行業的基本動態，如果我們暫時拋開我們剛才談到的干擾，但如果我們看看我們行業的基本供需動態，我們仍然處於這樣一種情況：產能過剩的威脅仍然存在——就在我們身邊。

I mean, there is a lot of newbuild tonnage that is expected to be delivered towards the second half of the year and vessel size that are precisely designed to get into the east west trade that are today very strong performer in terms of earnings generation. So that supply risk is there.

我的意思是，預計今年下半年將交付大量新船噸位，而船舶尺寸正是專門為進入東西方貿易而設計的，這些船舶目前在創收方面表現非常強勁。所以供應風險是存在的。

And there is, I think, a good and positive sign today when it comes to the demand. Whether the demand will be good enough to absorb that extra capacity is where we need to be a little bit more cautious. Hence why, today, we still feel that it is a likely scenario that the second half of 2024 might be a bit weaker than the first

我認為，就需求而言，今天有一個良好且積極的跡象。需求是否足以吸收額外產能是我們需要更謹慎的地方。因此，為什麼今天我們仍然認為 2024 年下半年可能會比上半年稍弱一些

Thank you. Totally understand that. And given what you've seen so far in 2Q and the spot rates we've seen and just looking at your working capital and the trade receivables, is it fair to assume that 2Q could be higher than 1Q?

謝謝。完全明白這一點。考慮到您迄今為止在第二季所看到的情況以及我們所看到的即期匯率，再看看您的營運資金和應收帳款，假設第二季可能高於第一季是否公平？

It could.

它可以。

Okay. And just then if I may ask another question on following up from the previous questions around lease payments. So thank you for the explanation there. Just in terms of overall lease payments for 2024 and 2025, can you remind us what could be the cash outflows for that and just other CapEx this year and next year, please?

好的。就在那時，我是否可以問另一個問題，以跟進先前有關租賃付款的問題。謝謝你的解釋。就 2024 年和 2025 年的整體租賃付款而言，您能否提醒我們今年和明年的現金流出以及其他資本支出是多少？

So in terms of lease payments, we are and we always said indeed that 2024 is going to be a challenging year for us, mostly because we continue to pay the charter that we secured during the COVID era days that were more expensive than the one that could be secured today to some extent. And so for that purpose, 2024, just like 2023 was, by the way, is quite heavy on that front.

因此，就租賃付款而言，我們確實一直說，2024 年對我們來說將是充滿挑戰的一年，主要是因為我們繼續支付在新冠疫情期間獲得的租約費用，這些租約比之前的租約更貴。因此，出於這個目的，順便說一下，2024 年，就像 2023 年一樣，在這方面意義重大。

But as we are redelivering those more expensive shifts and bringing in the ones that we've ordered, the newbuilds that we've ordered for, which we have a clear view, there is no debate, no question, no variable here. We have a fixed agreed-upon rate that we're going to be paying for the foreseeable future, which again was a price as per the newbuild -- the shipyards newbuild price at the time we ordered the ships. So completely decorrelated from what was the charter bucket prevailing during those days.

但是，當我們重新交付那些更昂貴的輪班並引入我們訂購的輪班、我們訂購的新船時，我們對此有清晰的看法，這裡沒有爭論，沒有問題，沒有變量。我們有一個固定的商定費率，我們將在可預見的未來支付，這又是根據新建船的價格——我們訂購船舶時的造船廠新建價格。與當時盛行的包租桶完全無關。

We are going to go back to a far more reasonable charter payment if we bring that down to per operated TEU. So that's for the charter payment. When it comes to CapEx, in terms of vessel CapEx, we should not have -- today we don't anticipate any of those in 2024, unless you consider the down payment that we are making at delivery of the ship as CapEx related.

如果我們將其降低到每個營運標準箱，我們將回到更合理的租船費用。這就是包機費用。當涉及資本支出時，就船舶資本支出而言，我們不應該——今天我們預計 2024 年不會有任何這些支出，除非您考慮到我們在船舶交付時支付的首付款與資本支出相關。

Just to be clear, in our cash flow statement, it is not. It is a prepayment of rentals. It goes in the lease liability repayment line. But -- so as -- I think we previously said that we still have $230 million of cash payments in 2024 that we relate to the delivery of those new ships.

需要明確的是，在我們的現金流量表中，事實並非如此。這是租金的預付款。它屬於租賃負債償還線。但是，我想我們之前說過，我們在 2024 年仍有 2.3 億美元的現金付款，與這些新船的交付有關。

And what may change a little bit is us having to, maybe, continue to invest a bit more on equipment. We just talked about the equipment shortages that resulted from the current market dynamics. And we want to anticipate and make sure that we are not taken short on our equipment requirement in order to meet our customers' expectations. So we might invest a little bit on that front and bring in new boxes, mostly dry 40 foot high cubes, which are the hot commodity right now when we talk about equipment.

可能會發生一點變化的是，我們可能必須繼續在設備上進行更多投資。我們剛才談到了當前市場動態導致的設備短缺。我們希望預測並確保我們的設備需求不會短缺，以滿足客戶的期望。因此，我們可能會在這方面投入一點，引進新的箱子，大部分是 40 英尺高的乾燥立方體，這是我們現在談論設備時的熱門商品。

And if I may ask a third question on dividends, please. How did you think about the quarterly dividend for 1Q? I understand the payout ratio, but I think if I remember correctly, it was subject to Board review and what has made the Board comfortable with paying the dividend, given your comments around the threat of oversupply in the industry? Thank you.

請容許我問關於股利的第三個問題。您如何看待第一季的季度股息？我了解派息率，但我想，如果我沒記錯的話，它需要經過董事會審查，考慮到您對行業供應過剩威脅的評論，是什麼讓董事會願意支付股息？謝謝。

Look, I think on this front, you're right. We have a dividend policy, which we intend to adhere to unless there are good reasons for us to deviate from that dividend policy. And the Board looking at this question felt confident that by adhering to the dividend policy, we were not putting the company at risk in terms of outlook, what do we see looking ahead going forward.

聽著，我認為在這方面，你是對的。我們有股利政策，我們打算遵守該政策，除非我們有充分理由偏離該股利政策。董事會在考慮這個問題時相信，透過堅持股利政策，我們不會讓公司面臨前景風險，我們對未來的看法如何。

From a corporate law perspective in Israel, we have to meet and satisfy several criteria and test that we did satisfy. And as a result, the Board felt comfortable in agreeing to this dividend distribution.

從以色列公司法的角度來看，我們必須滿足並滿足我們確實滿足的幾個標準和測試。因此，董事會同意這種股利分配。

Keep our policy. To adhere by the policy.

保持我們的政策。遵守政策。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sathish Sivakumar, Citigroup.

薩蒂什·西瓦庫瑪 (Sathish Sivakumar)，花旗集團。

Thanks for the presentation. I got three questions here. So firstly, on the box shortages/equipment shortages, if you could just color, which trade lanes are you seeing there? Is it mainly on the backhaul or on the fronthaul? And then, Asia to Europe, any color on that or North South would be helpful.

感謝您的介紹。我在這裡有三個問題。首先，關於箱子短缺/設備短缺，如果你能用顏色來表示，你在那裡看到了哪些貿易通道？主要是回傳還是前傳？然後，從亞洲到歐洲，任何顏色或南北都會有幫助。

And then, last year in Q3, you took an impairment on your lease liabilities based on assuming the rates would be depressed for longer. Given the recent rebound in rates, how does that impairment provision would work? Could you see that being unwind? Or is it done for now. You are not going to go and revisit that.

然後，去年第三季度，您基於假設利率將持續低迷的時間而對租賃負債進行了減值。鑑於近期利率反彈，減損撥備將如何運作？你能看到放鬆嗎？或者現在已經完成了。你不會去重新審視這一點。

And then, the contract rates, in your Q1, have you had like any contract rates coming in? Or is it all like 35% contracted? You're just starting off only in May? And how should we think about the exit rate on your freight rates versus March versus what you are seeing in April and May, that would be helpful? Thank you.

然後，合約費率，在第一季度，您是否有任何合約費率？還是都像35%一樣收縮了？你是五月才開始的嗎？我們應該如何考慮你們三月的運費退出率以及四月和五月的情況，這會有所幫助嗎？謝謝。

Okay. On your first question, when it comes to equipment constraints or shortages, we clearly see the pressure rising in Asia for us to be able to get the equipment positions on time, to bring the cargo to the US. So for us, it's really Asia to the US trade, which is in tension.

好的。關於你的第一個問題，當涉及設備限製或短缺時，我們清楚地看到亞洲的壓力越來越大，要求我們能夠按時獲得設備位置，將貨物運往美國。因此，對我們來說，真正緊張的是亞洲與美國的貿易。

And by the way, when we say Asia to the US because it's our most significant trade. But from all the place of origin in Asia to destination elsewhere, for as long as -- for example, Ningbo is a place where we have a shortage of equipment, and we need to make sure that we reposition that equipment as timely as possible.

順便說一句，當我們對美國說亞洲時，因為這是我們最重要的貿易。但是從亞洲所有的始發地到其他地方的目的地，只要——例如寧波就是我們設備短缺的地方，我們需要確保我們盡可能及時地重新定位設備。

And as I mentioned earlier on, potentially also envisage acquiring and increasing our fleet of equipment, which by the way was -- it doesn't come also as a surprise. And this is why I think Eli mentioned that we got prepared for that but need maybe to add a little bit more due to the increase in our operating tonnage. The more we operate capacity from a vessel perspective, the more de facto we need also additional equipment.

正如我之前提到的，我們也可能設想購買和增加我們的設備群，順便說一句，這並不令人意外。這就是為什麼我認為 Eli 提到我們已經為此做好了準備，但由於我們運營噸位的增加，可能需要增加一點。從船舶角度來看，我們營運的運力越多，事實上我們就越需要額外的設備。

So here we see still some pressure. But main -- mostly, this is a shortage of equipment availability in Asia, China, more specifically, that we need to monitor very closely.

所以在這裡我們看到仍然有一些壓力。但主要的是，主要是亞洲、中國的設備可用性短缺，更具體地說，我們需要非常密切地監控。

The second question, I think on the impairment, the impairment is on the asset side and not on the lease liability side. But the rationale for the impairment, again, what is it? It is us looking at our long-term forecast. And we say long-term here, it's not one quarter or even one year. We're looking at four to five years ahead and try to come with a fair assessment as to what could be the cash generation of the company.

第二個問題，我認為關於減損，減損是在資產端，而不是在租賃負債端。但減損的理由又是什麼？這是我們著眼於我們的長期預測。我們這裡說的長期，不是一個季度，甚至不是一年。我們正在展望未來四到五年，並嘗試對公司的現金產生進行公正的評估。

Then we use discounting rate, which is already the average cost of capital. And then come to a number, which is the future discounted cash flow that we think we might be generating. And then we compare that to the book value of our assets. And that's -- when we did that exercise last year in Q3, this is where we saw the de-correlation between those two numbers and allocated and accounted for this large impairment amount.

然後我們使用折現率，這已經是平均資本成本。然後得出一個數字，這是我們認為可能產生的未來貼現現金流。然後我們將其與我們資產的帳面價值進行比較。那就是——當我們去年第三季進行這項工作時，我們看到這兩個數字之間的不相關性，並分配並解釋瞭如此大的減值金額。

So now, every quarter, we ask ourselves the same question and need to consider whether there are impairment indicators in both directions, by the way, worsening of our forecast or an improvement that is material and meaningful that could or should lead us to revisiting that impairment analysis.

因此，現在，每個季度，我們都會問自己同樣的問題，需要考慮兩個方向是否存在減值指標，順便說一句，我們的預測是否惡化，或者是否有重大且有意義的改進，可能或應該導致我們重新檢視這一點減損分析。

Up until today, we felt that the recent change in the market, which are still -- from a timing perspective, we cannot safely say that this is the new normal. We are still, I think, in a very volatile environment. So the long-term view for us is still today pretty much unchained when we look ahead into future use.

直到今天，我們覺得市場最近的變化仍然——從時機的角度來看，我們不能有把握地說這是新常態。我認為，我們仍然處於一個非常不穩定的環境。因此，當我們展望未來的使用時，我們的長期觀點在今天仍然是不受束縛的。

But again, if we are to see or to think at some point in time that we had to revisit those assumptions, we would. And it could lead to a reassessment of the impairment. Again, both potential directions either add to it or write back some of it.

但同樣，如果我們在某個時間點看到或認為我們必須重新審視這些假設，我們會的。這可能會導致對減損的重新評估。同樣，兩個潛在的方向要么添加到它，要么寫回其中的一些。

And last, your question relating to the contract rates, clearly for us, when we refer to the 35% rate or percentage that we secured for the next contract season. So we talk here about as from the May 1, 2024, up until the April 30, 2025. We anticipate or expect that out of our volume objective on the transpacific, 35% give or take of that volume objective will come from contract cargo and de facto 65%, the difference will come from spot.

最後，你關於合約費率的問題，對我們來說顯然是這樣，當我們指的是我們為下一個合約賽季爭取到的 35% 的費率或百分比時。因此，我們在這裡討論的是從 2024 年 5 月 1 日到 2025 年 4 月 30 日。 我們預計或預計，在我們的跨太平洋運輸量目標中，該運輸量目標的 35% 將來自合約貨物和事實上65%，差異將來自現貨。

And that is, I think, very much as we tried to explain driven by the fact that, yes, we see the spot market today. The contract rates that we managed to agree with our customers, we are not meaningfully different from what they were doing the past season. So for the first quarter, in a way of 2024, slightly higher but not meaningfully higher.

我認為，這正是我們試圖解釋的，是的，我們今天看到了現貨市場。我們設法與客戶達成一致的合約費率與他們上一季的做法沒有太大不同。因此，從 2024 年的角度來看，第一季會略有上升，但不會大幅上升。

And we felt that on average, if we look at what we think will happen in our market environments for the next 12 months, on average, we think that we will earn better income per TEU on the spot market that we will on the contract cargo.

我們認為，平均而言，如果我們考慮未來 12 個月的市場環境，平均而言，我們認為我們在現貨市場上每 TEU 的收入將高於合約貨物的收入。

Okay, got it. Thanks for your answers. So maybe one more if I could. In terms of the cost, obviously, you do have higher proportion of LNG, now that the additional voyage length, does it put you in a disadvantage versus, say, the liners who will operate on traditional bunker?

好，知道了。感謝您的回答。如果可以的話，也許可以再多一個。就成本而言，顯然，你們確實擁有更高比例的液化天然氣，既然額外的航程長度，與在傳統燃料上運營的班輪相比，這是否會讓你們處於劣勢？

I would say quite the opposite. Today, we feel the benefit of switching and gradually transitioning more and more towards LNG bunkering, which is, from both from a consumption perspective and then from cost per ton perspective, cheaper for us to run the vessels on energy than it is, to run those ship or similar ships on traditional diesel fuel.

我想說恰恰相反。今天，我們感受到了越來越多地轉向液化天然氣加註的好處，從消耗角度和每噸成本角度來看，對我們來說，使用能源來運行船舶比運行船舶更便宜。的船舶或類似船舶。

So as you know, our all of our LNG vessels are dual-fuel. We could decide to run them on the LSFO if we wanted to. First, we don't want, because they are meant to achieve an ESG objective, a decarbonization objective and trajectory. But even beyond that one reason, from a pure cost of operation perspective, it is cheaper for us to run those ships on LNG than it would be to run them on LSFO.

如您所知，我們所有的液化天然氣船都是雙燃料的。如果我們願意，我們可以決定在 LSFO 上運行它們。首先，我們不想要，因為它們旨在實現 ESG 目標、脫碳目標和軌跡。但即使除此之外，從純粹的營運成本角度來看，我們使用液化天然氣來運作這些船舶比使用低硫燃油運作更便宜。

Marco Limite, Barclays.

馬可·利米特，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is on leverage. So as you state, you have 2.8 times net debt EBITDA as of Q1. Just wondering what's your level of comfortability around leverage and if there are covenants going forward that we should think of.

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於槓桿。正如您所說，截至第一季度，您的淨債務 EBITDA 是 2.8 倍。只是想知道您對槓桿的適應程度如何，以及我們是否應該考慮未來的契約。

My second question is on costs. So clearly, you do have some charters that come up for renewal this year. And my question is, to what extent chartering costs are now taking into effect the Red Sea disruption? So are chartering costs becoming more expensive than what they were a couple of months ago, for example, and by how much? A

我的第二個問題是關於成本。很明顯，今年確實有一些需要續約的章程。我的問題是，租船成本現在在多大程度上影響了紅海的破壞？那麼，租船成本是否會比幾個月前貴一些，貴了多少？ A

nd my third question, just a follow-up to the previous question but on the CapEx side. So in your view, how more expensive are these LNG vessels compared to, let’s say, standard fuel power vessels? Thank you.

我的第三個問題，只是上一個問題的後續問題，但在資本支出方面。那麼在您看來，這些液化天然氣船與標準燃料動力船相比要貴多少呢？謝謝。

Okay. So maybe starting with the last one, those vessels that we ordered, we ordered them via a third party in the middle. So it's a long-term charter commitment, although those vessels were ordered for us with a back to back charter.

好的。所以也許從最後一艘開始，我們訂購的那些船隻，我們是透過中間的第三方訂購的。因此，這是一項長期包租承諾，儘管這些船隻是我們透過背對背包租方式訂購的。

So if you take about the LNG fueled vessels, all of them, the 15,000 TEU were secured with Seaspan as a vessel owner. And then on a back-to-back charter with us, the 8,000 TEU ships, 15 of them were also secured with Seaspan and the 3 remaining with another vessel owner.

因此，如果你考慮 LNG 燃料船，所有這些 15,000 TEU 的船都是 Seaspan 作為船東獲得的。然後，在與我們的背靠背租船中，8,000 TEU 船舶中，其中 15 艘也由 Seaspan 獲得，其餘 3 艘由另一家船東獲得。

So at the time, what we did was we knew what was the shipyard price for those new building. And if you were to ask me, let's take the example of the 15,000 TEU ships back in 2021, the average value of those ships was maybe around $140 million apiece. Today, it is -- it would be closer to $200 million.

所以當時我們所做的就是知道這些新建築的造船廠價格是多少。如果你問我，讓我們以 2021 年 15,000 TEU 船舶為例，這些船舶的平均價值可能約為每艘 1.4 億美元。今天，這個數字將接近 2 億美元。

And what we got was a charter rate. So the Seaspan is acting as the financial lessor, ultimately, to us. And so the charter rates that we secured for those ships is to be looked at a finance lease provided by a financial [biggor], in this instance, Seaspan.

我們得到的是包機費率。因此，西斯班號最終對我們而言是財務出租人。因此，我們為這些船舶獲得的租船費率應考慮金融[biggor]（在本例中為西​​斯潘）提供的融資租賃。

So we feel that we got very good from a timing perspective that we went out to secure those efficient tonnage at the exact right time where the shipyard price was still not at the level of what we see today. So that's why we are saying with absolute confidence that our cost per TEU is going to improve as a simple result of us replacing the older tonnage that we chartered of the vessel owners and that we return to make room for these newbuilds, which is a far more cost friendly to us, which leads to your second question today.

因此，我們認為，從時機的角度來看，我們做得非常好，我們在正確的時間確保了這些高效的噸位，而造船廠的價格仍然沒有達到我們今天看到的水平。因此，這就是為什麼我們絕對有信心地說，我們每標準箱的成本將會改善，因為我們更換了我們向船東租用的舊噸位，並且我們返回為這些新造船騰出空間，這是一個遙遠的結果。

The company is not exposed to the charter market whatsoever. We are not discussing, renewing a charter contract because quite the contrary, like I said, we make room for the new buildings that are coming our way for which we negotiated already three years ago, what would be the rates that we would be paid. And what we do is that we deliver all the vessels that we have secured before and that come up for renewal at the end of the charter period.

該公司不參與任何包機市場。我們不是在討論續簽租賃合同，因為恰恰相反，就像我說的那樣，我們為即將到來的新建築騰出了空間，我們三年前已經就這些建築進行了談​​判，我們將支付的費率是多少。我們所做的就是交付我們之前獲得的以及在租船期結束時需要更新的所有船舶。

We don't renew. We give back. We redeliver to the vessel owner. So this is why, clearly, we can say safely that as far as our cost structure is concerned, there is no exposure to the current charter market environment.

我們不續訂。我們回饋。我們將貨物重新交付給船東。因此，這就是為什麼我們可以明確地說，就我們的成本結構而言，我們沒有受到當前包機市場環境的影響。

And then to your first question in terms of leverage and covenant, first, there is no financial covenants or EBITDA-related covenants in any of our financing facility. We only have one financial covenant in a small facility, a container facility, which is a minimum cash of $250 million. So we don't have any leverage or coverage or gearing type of covenant obligations vis-a-vis any of our financial content.

關於槓桿和契約方面的第一個問題，首先，我們的任何融資工具都沒有財務契約或 EBITDA 相關契約。我們在一個小型設施中只有一項財務契約，即貨櫃設施，最低現金為 2.5 億美元。因此，對於我們的任何財務內容，我們沒有任何槓桿或承保範圍或槓桿類型的契約義務。

Okay, thank you. If I could add one more. Just wondering, as you have just said that you expect, let’s say, spot rates to be throughout the year a bit stronger compared to the contract rate of the transpacific on average. Just wondering whether the higher percentage of spot rate on the transpacific versus contract is already in the guidance. And therefore, you have been cautious in the second half just because you are anticipating the possibility of a steep correction in spot rates? Thank you.

好的謝謝。如果我可以再加一個的話。只是想知道，正如您剛才所說，您預計全年即期費率將比跨太平洋平均合約費率略強一些。只是想知道跨太平洋航線相對於合約的即期匯率較高的百分比是否已經在指導中。因此，您在下半年一直保持謹慎，只是因為您預計即期匯率可能會大幅調整？謝謝。

Look, I mean, I will let you be the judge of whether we are conservative or not. But, yes, the short answer to your question, when we provided our guidance, we took into consideration where we ended up from a contract discussion perspective and the outcome that we discussed of us willing to take a larger exposure to the spot market, which is us taking a risk.

聽著，我的意思是，我會讓你來判斷我們是否保守。但是，是的，對你的問題的簡短回答是，當我們提供指導時，我們考慮了從合約討論的角度來看我們最終的結果，以及我們討論的我們願意更多地接觸現貨市場的結果，這我們是在冒險嗎？

But we think it's the right risk for us to take as opposed to lock in at a low rate a significant amount of cargos. We take the more difficult avenue on that front. But we have to be also mindful of the fact that the spot rate that we see today, might not prevail for the whole of the year and it is indeed factored in our guidance that we anticipate a likely scenario that the spot rate will trend downwards, then the slope of the trend is to be determined then we will monitor the situation, obviously, quarter after quarter.

但我們認為，與以低利率鎖定大量貨物相比，我們應該承擔適當的風險。我們在這方面採取了更困難的道路。但我們也必須注意這樣一個事實，即我們今天看到的即期匯率可能不會在全年都占主導地位，而且我們的指導中確實考慮到了即期匯率可能會下降的情況，然後趨勢的斜率將被確定，然後我們將監控情況，顯然，一個季度又一個季度。

Thank you. And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Eli Glickman for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回伊萊·格利克曼 (Eli Glickman) 作結束語。

We are pleased with our progress thus far in '24, both advancing ZIM transformation through fleet renewal and capitalizing on stronger than anticipated market conditions to deliver a profit in the first quarter. Our cost structure continues to improve in tandem with the delivery of our highly competitive fuel efficient newbuild tonnage that will include 28 LNG-powered vessels once our fleet renewal program is complete.

我們對 24 年迄今的進展感到滿意，既透過機隊更新推進以星轉型，又利用強於預期的市場狀況在第一季實現盈利。隨著我們的船隊更新計畫完成後，我們將交付極具競爭力的燃油效率新船，其中包括 28 艘液化天然氣動力船舶，我們的成本結構將持續改善。

As we transform our fleet profile and maintain our boost network backed by exceptional customer service, we are on track to drive long-term sustainable growth. In light of improved market conditions, we've increased our full year '24 guidance, while [halls] remains and market conditions are constantly evolving, we are confident in the exceptional team we have in place and our strategic positioning as an agile container shipping player as a revamp fleet.

隨著我們轉變機隊概況並在卓越的客戶服務的支持下維持我們的增壓網絡，我們有望推動長期可持續成長。鑑於市場狀況有所改善，我們提高了 24 年全年指導，雖然 [大廳] 仍然存在且市場狀況不斷變化，但我們對我們現有的優秀團隊以及我們作為敏捷集裝箱運輸的戰略定位充滿信心玩家作為改造艦隊。

We look forward to continuing to capitalize on positive near-term market dynamics and further implement our differentiated strategy to best serve our customers and generate enduring value for shareholders. Thank you very much to all of you.

我們期待繼續利用近期積極的市場動態，進一步實施我們的差異化策略，以最好地服務我們的客戶並為股東創造持久的價值。非常感謝大家。

This concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。