以星航運 (ZIM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm (inaudible) your Chorus call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持。我是（聽不清）您的 Chorus 呼叫接線員。歡迎並感謝您加入 ZIM Integrated Shipping Services 第 4 季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Elana Holzman, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Elana Holzman。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome to Zim's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Eliyahu Glickman, ZIM's President and CEO; and Xavier Destriau, ZIM's CFO.

謝謝運營商，歡迎來到 Zim 2022 年第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議。 ZIM 總裁兼首席執行官 Eliyahu Glickman 今天和我一起參加電話會議；和 ZIM 的首席財務官 Xavier Destriau。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events or results. We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable. We wish to caution you that such statements reflect only the company's current expectations, and that actual events or results may differ, including materially. You are kindly referred to consider the risk factors and cautionary language described in the documents the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 2022 annual report filed on Form 20-F today, March 13, 2023. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將就預期、預測、預測或未來事件或結果做出前瞻性陳述。我們相信我們的預期和假設是合理的。我們希望提醒您，此類陳述僅反映公司當前的預期，實際事件或結果可能存在差異，包括重大差異。敬請您考慮公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的風險因素和警示性語言，包括我們於 2023 年 3 月 13 日今天以 20-F 表格提交的 2022 年年度報告。我們不承擔更新義務這些前瞻性陳述。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to ZIM's CEO, Eliyahu Glickman. Eli?

此時，我想將電話轉給 ZIM 的首席執行官 Eliyahu Glickman。以利？

Thank you, Elana, and welcome to everyone to today's call. Slide #3, 2022 was a record year for ZIM in terms of EBITDA and EBIT results. We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 billion, an adjusted EBIT of $6.1 billion, 14% and 6% higher than 2021, respectively. For the year, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 60%, and adjusted EBIT margin reached 49%. The development of our quarterly results in 2022 reflect changing market dynamics throughout the year.

謝謝你，Elana，歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議。幻燈片 #3，2022 年是 ZIM 在 EBITDA 和 EBIT 結果方面創紀錄的一年。我們實現了 75 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 61 億美元的調整後 EBIT，分別比 2021 年高出 14% 和 6%。全年，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 60%，調整後的 EBIT 利潤率達到 49%。我們 2022 年季度業績的發展反映了全年不斷變化的市場動態。

Q1 2022 was our best quarter ever with respect to all financial and operational parameters. And since then, our quarterly results have declined sequentially with Q4 2022 results dramatically reflecting the negative impact of the decline in freight rates. I'm incredibly proud to present these results today and of the ZIM team for the exceptional execution in delivering these record results and meeting our 2022 guidance, especially considering the evolving market conditions.

就所有財務和運營參數而言，2022 年第一季度是我們有史以來最好的一個季度。從那以後，我們的季度業績連續下降，2022 年第四季度的業績顯著反映了運費下降的負面影響。我非常自豪地展示今天的這些結果以及 ZIM 團隊在交付這些創紀錄的結果和滿足我們的 2022 年指導方面的出色執行，特別是考慮到不斷變化的市場條件。

Slide 4. We haven't been idle for the past 2 years. As we benefit from highly lucrative market conditions, we took important steps to best position ZIM to execute in a more normalized market environment, improve our cost structure to ensure that ZIM is optimizing its performance for the benefit of our shareholders and creating sustainable value over the long term.

Slide 4. 過去 2 年我們一直沒有閒著。由於我們受益於高利潤的市場條件，我們採取了重要步驟，使 ZIM 處於最佳位置，以便在更加規範的市場環境中執行，改善我們的成本結構，以確保 ZIM 正在優化其績效以造福我們的股東，並在整個過程中創造可持續的價值長期。

Most important was our decision to adapt our vessel chartering strategy with secured cost competitive and fuel-efficient newbuild capacity in a sales of chartering agreements to support our commercial strategy. This agreement include vessel ranging from our flagship 15,000 TEU LNG fuel vessels intendant to our Asia to U.S. East Coast service to smaller, more versatile 5,000 and 7,000 TEU vessels.

最重要的是，我們決定調整我們的船舶租賃戰略，在租賃協議的銷售中確保具有成本競爭力和燃油效率的新造船能力，以支持我們的商業戰略。該協議涵蓋的船隻範圍從我們的旗艦 15,000 TEU LNG 燃料船到亞洲至美國東海岸服務，再到更小、更通用的 5,000 和 7,000 TEU 船隻。

Notably, as we replace smaller vessels with large one, our cost per TEU will decline, driving improvements to our cost structure throughout 2023 and beyond. This will allow ZIM to competitively operate in lower freight rate market and weaker demand environment and maintain our objective of maintaining positive EBIT.

值得注意的是，隨著我們用大型船舶取代小型船舶，我們的每 TEU 成本將下降，從而推動我們在 2023 年及以後的成本結構得到改善。這將使 ZIM 能夠在較低的運費市場和較弱的需求環境中具有競爭力地運營，並保持我們保持正息稅前利潤的目標。

Our chartering strategy also underscore our ESG target, 28 of our 46 newbuild vessel we secured our LNG-powered, making us an industry leader in terms of low carbon intensity. The 15,000 TEU vessels are ideally suited to serve on our core Asia to U.S. East Coast service, and we are the first liner to operate LNG vessels on this [tree]. This is a significant commercial differentiation, which enable us to immediately reduce the carbon footprint of ZIM and our customers.

我們的租船策略也強調了我們的 ESG 目標，我們在 46 艘新造船中的 28 艘獲得了液化天然氣動力，使我們成為低碳強度方面的行業領導者。這艘 15,000 TEU 的船隻非常適合在我們的核心亞洲至美國東海岸航線上提供服務，而且我們是第一家在該 [tree] 上運營 LNG 船隻的班輪公司。這是一項重要的商業差異化，使我們能夠立即減少 ZIM 和我們客戶的碳足跡。

Next, our global new strategy and customer-centric approach remains the foundation of our commercial strategy. Our customer relationships drive everything we do at ZIM, and we continue to make progress, enhancing our customer experience. We continuously work to enhance our digital offering and employ strict KPIs to ensure we maintain the highest service quality while preserving our personal touch. We focus on special cargo, high-value services.

接下來，我們的全球新戰略和以客戶為中心的方法仍然是我們商業戰略的基礎。我們的客戶關係驅動著我們在 ZIM 所做的一切，我們不斷取得進步，提升我們的客戶體驗。我們不斷努力增強我們的數字產品並採用嚴格的 KPI 來確保我們保持最高的服務質量，同時保持我們的個人風格。我們專注於特殊貨物，高價值服務。

We continue to invest and improve our sales tools to support our profitability objectives. We also strengthen our local presence in important markets such as Australia, New Zealand, Thailand and Vietnam. Our commercial presence today is more diversified as we focus on trade where we can establish a competitive position. We continuously review our services and strive to improve our network for the benefit of our customers. As market conditions involved to adapt our services, open new lines, modified rotation and suspend loss-making services. Recent example of these changes include a new premium line from South America West Coast to U.S. East Coast, in which we redeployed vessels previously deployed in Intra-Asia services.

我們繼續投資和改進我們的銷售工具，以支持我們的盈利目標。我們還加強了在澳大利亞、新西蘭、泰國和越南等重要市場的本地業務。我們今天的商業存在更加多元化，因為我們專注於可以建立競爭地位的貿易。我們不斷審查我們的服務並努力改善我們的網絡以造福於我們的客戶。由於市場情況涉及調整我們的服務、開通新線路、修改輪換和暫停虧損服務。最近這些變化的例子包括從南美西海岸到美國東海岸的一條新的優質航線，我們在這條航線上重新部署了以前部署在亞洲內部服務中的船隻。

A new service, covering major ports in Southeast Asia and Australia, -- rotation changed to our Express Asia Baltimore ZXB service and suspension of ZEX, our Asia to LA Express service. These changes are proof of our agile approach aimed at providing streamline services to our customers as well as responding swiftly to changing market dynamics. We also recently established a joint venture with the largest domestic shipping company in Vietnam, High-end Shipping Services. We have discussed the potential we believe this market holds, and this joint venture uniquely positions ZIM to serve local importance and exporters and more effectively connect local services with our international network. This joint venture will allow us to better serve manufacturers shifting from China to Vietnam as well as potentially target the extending Cambodia and large international trade.

一項覆蓋東南亞和澳大利亞主要港口的新服務——輪換為我們的 Express Asia Baltimore ZXB 服務，並暫停我們的亞洲至洛杉磯快遞服務 ZEX。這些變化證明了我們旨在為客戶提供簡化服務以及快速響應不斷變化的市場動態的敏捷方法。我們最近還與越南最大的國內航運公司 High-end Shipping Services 成立了一家合資企業。我們已經討論了我們認為這個市場所具有的潛力，而這家合資企業使 ZIM 處於獨特的地位，可以為當地的重要企業和出口商提供服務，並更有效地將當地服務與我們的國際網絡聯繫起來。該合資企業將使我們能夠更好地為從中國轉移到越南的製造商提供服務，並有可能瞄準不斷擴大的柬埔寨和大型國際貿易。

We also identified a commercial opportunity in the car carrier market, in which strong demand and tight supply have resulted in positive market dynamics. We currently operate 11 car carriers with plans to expand to 16 vessels by midyear.

我們還發現了汽車運輸市場的商機，強勁的需求和緊張的供應導致了積極的市場動態。我們目前運營著 11 艘汽車運輸船，計劃到年中擴大到 16 艘。

Turning to our growth engine complementary to our core shipping activities. We continue to explore opportunities in early-stage companies, introducing disruptive technologies in shipping and broader ecosystem. Most recently, we participated in equity and debt financing (inaudible), an innovative FinTech platform designed to modernize cross-border trade financing. By using AI tools, Fortis streamlines the credit application process and can offer small- and medium-sized importance and exporters faster and cheaper access to working capital financing needs than traditional financial institutions.

轉向與我們的核心航運活動互補的增長引擎。我們繼續探索早期公司的機會，在航運和更廣泛的生態系統中引入顛覆性技術。最近，我們參與了股權和債務融資（聽不清），這是一個旨在實現跨境貿易融資現代化的創新金融科技平台。通過使用 AI 工具，Fortis 簡化了信貸申請流程，可以為中小型重要企業和出口商提供比傳統金融機構更快、更便宜的流動資金融資需求。

Moreover, Fortis represents a unique financing solution that we will very soon offer to our customer as well primarily via our digital freight forwarder, ship forward. The valuable synergies between ship forward and Fortis, and we are pleased to be able to offer our SME customers a new and innovative digital financing solution designed to assist them to grow their business. A positive development, which may benefit (inaudible), one of our early investment, is the recent decision by the Digital Container Shipping Association, the DCSA, that was established in 2019 by most of the largest shipping companies with the objective of establishing IT standards for our industry.

此外，Fortis 代表了一種獨特的融資解決方案，我們很快將主要通過我們的數字貨運代理 ship forward 向我們的客戶提供該解決方案。 ship forward 和 Fortis 之間的寶貴協同作用，我們很高興能夠為我們的中小企業客戶提供全新的創新數字融資解決方案，旨在幫助他們發展業務。數字集裝箱航運協會 (DCSA) 最近做出了一項可能有益於（聽不清）的積極發展，這是我們早期的一項投資，該協會由大多數最大的航運公司於 2019 年成立，旨在建立 IT 標準對於我們的行業。

Together, the (inaudible) represent over 70% of the global container shipping trade. This is -- this year's SA members recently announced their commitment to reaching 15% electronics bill of lading we see in 5 years and 100% by the year 2030. As you may recall, ZIM first introduced electronic bill of lading to its customers through the Wave bill solution back in 2017. And today, other major shipping companies are also offering the Wave solution to their customers. We are active investors in all our portfolio companies as we leverage our expertise, know-how network to support these companies.

這些（聽不清）加起來佔全球集裝箱航運貿易的 70% 以上。這是——今年的 SA 成員最近宣布他們承諾在 5 年內達到 15% 的電子提單，到 2030 年達到 100%。您可能還記得，ZIM 首先通過早在 2017 年就推出了 Wave 賬單解決方案。如今，其他主要航運公司也向其客戶提供 Wave 解決方案。我們是我們所有投資組合公司的積極投資者，因為我們利用我們的專業知識和專業知識網絡來支持這些公司。

We believe our portfolio of companies hold significant potential in the future. Our goal is to build financial resilience in our business, stay focused on our strategy and leverage our core strengths and ensure ZIM is best positioned for a more volatile and uncertain market. We intend to employ our significant cash resources cautiously to support our future profitable growth. The actions that I ever outlined are aimed at advanced ZIM primary objective to use our strengths to grow profitably and maximize value to our shareholders.

我們相信我們的公司組合在未來具有巨大的潛力。我們的目標是在我們的業務中建立財務彈性，專注於我們的戰略並利用我們的核心優勢，並確保 ZIM 在更加動盪和不確定的市場中處於最佳位置。我們打算謹慎使用我們的大量現金資源來支持我們未來的盈利增長。我所概述的行動旨在實現先進的 ZIM 主要目標，即利用我們的優勢實現盈利增長並為我們的股東創造最大價值。

Going to Slide #5. Despite the current rate environment and challenging macro and industry dynamics, we are confident in our strategy and expect positive EBIT in 2023. As such, for the full year, we expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion, and adjusted EBIT between $100 million to $500 million. Our CFO, Xavier, will shortly discus the underlying assumption of our guidance and current market environment in greater detail. Based on our strong full year results and confidence in our strategy, our board declared a Q4 dividend of approximately $769 million or $6.4 per share. This brings our total dividend part on account of 2022 results to $2.04 billion or 44 percentage of total '22 net income. Returning substantial capital to shareholders remain a priority as we seek to create long-term value and enable shareholders to directly benefit from our results.

轉到幻燈片 #5。儘管目前的利率環境以及具有挑戰性的宏觀和行業動態，我們對我們的戰略充滿信心，並預計 2023 年的息稅前利潤為正。因此，我們預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 將在 18 億至 22 億美元之間，調整後的 EBIT 將在1億到5億美元。我們的首席財務官 Xavier 將很快更詳細地討論我們的指導和當前市場環境的基本假設。基於我們強勁的全年業績和對我們戰略的信心，我們的董事會宣布派發約 7.69 億美元或每股 6.4 美元的第四季度股息。這使我們基於 2022 年業績的總股息部分達到 20.4 億美元，佔 22 年淨收入總額的 44%。在我們尋求創造長期價值並使股東能夠直接從我們的業績中受益時，向股東返還大量資本仍然是我們的首要任務。

On that note, I will turn the call over to Xavier, our CFO, for his remarks on our financial results and additional comments on the market. Xavier, please?

關於這一點，我將把電話轉給我們的首席財務官 Xavier，聽取他對我們財務業績的評論以及對市場的其他評論。澤維爾，好嗎？

Thank you, Eli, and again, welcome to everyone. On this slide, we present our key financial and operational highlights. As Eli, already mentioned, 2022 was a year of exceptional financial performance for ZIM, even with the pace of normalization accelerating during the latter part of the year. Despite the deteriorating market, ZIM generated record revenue of $12.6 billion in 2022, and that is to be compared to $10.7 billion in 2021, a 17% improvement.

謝謝你，Eli，再次歡迎大家。在這張幻燈片上，我們展示了我們的主要財務和運營亮點。正如 Eli 已經提到的，2022 年是 ZIM 財務表現出色的一年，即使在今年下半年正常化步伐加快。儘管市場不斷惡化，但 ZIM 在 2022 年的收入達到創紀錄的 126 億美元，與 2021 年的 107 億美元相比，增長了 17%。

During the year, our average freight rate per TEU was $3,240, 16% higher than in 2021 as we benefited from the elevated freight rate environment for the majority of the year. In Q4, our average freight rate per TEU was $2,122, a 42% decline year-over-year and 37% decline from the prior quarter. Our free cash flow in the fourth quarter totaled $1 billion compared to $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.

年內，我們的每標準箱平均運費為 3,240 美元，比 2021 年高出 16%，因為我們受益於全年大部分時間的運費上漲環境。第四季度，我們每標準箱的平均運費為 2,122 美元，同比下降 42%，環比下降 37%。我們在第四季度的自由現金流總額為 10 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 17 億美元。

Turning to our balance sheet. Total debt increased by $1 billion since prior year-end. And as in recent quarters, this was mainly driven by the increased number of vessel fixtures, longer-term charter duration as well as higher daily chartering rates. Regarding our fleet, we currently operate today 152 vessels, out of which 12 are car carriers.

轉向我們的資產負債表。自去年年底以來，總債務增加了 10 億美元。與最近幾個季度一樣，這主要是由於固定船舶數量增加、租期延長以及日租費率提高所致。關於我們的船隊，我們目前運營著 152 艘船，其中 12 艘是汽車運輸船。

The average remaining duration of our current charter capacity is 27.3 months essentially unchanged from November 2022. I would note that our current fleet includes 5 newbuild vessels, 4 of 12,000 TEU capacity and 1 of 15,000 TEU, which is the first of the series of the 15,000 TEU LNG vessels that we ordered in 2021. We have 22 vessels up for charter renewal during the remainder of the year with 36 up for renewal in 2024. This means that we have a total of 58 vessels up for renewal compared to the expected delivery of 41 chartered newbuild vessels during the same time period.

我們目前的租船能力平均剩餘期限為 27.3 個月，與 2022 年 11 月基本持平。我要指出的是，我們目前的船隊包括 5 艘新造船，4 艘 12,000 TEU 運力和 1 艘 15,000 TEU 運力，這是該系列的第一艘我們在 2021 年訂購了 15,000 TEU LNG 船。我們有 22 艘船在今年剩餘時間內續租，36 艘船在 2024 年續租。這意味著與預期交付相比，我們共有 58 艘船需要續租同期有 41 艘特許新造船。

Moving on to the next slide, you can see that we delivered strong results over the last 2-plus years. And as a result, our net leverage ratio has trended downward at the same time and currently stands at 0 as of December 31, 2022, as we end the year in a net cash position.

轉到下一張幻燈片，您可以看到我們在過去 2 年多的時間裡取得了強勁的成果。因此，我們的淨槓桿率同時呈下降趨勢，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，目前為 0，因為我們年底處於淨現金頭寸。

Turning to our fourth quarter and full year financial performance. Fourth quarter net income was $417 million compared to $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $973 million compared to $2.4 billion in Q4 2021.

轉向我們的第四季度和全年財務業績。第四季度淨收入為 4.17 億美元，而去年第四季度為 17 億美元。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 9.73 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 24 億美元。

For the full year, net income was $4.63 billion compared to $4.65 billion in 2021, and adjusted EBITDA was $7.5 billion compared to $6.6 billion in 2021. Lower margin sequentially, the second half of 2022 versus the first half, as well as Q4 versus Q3, are driven primarily by lower revenue.

全年淨收入為 46.3 億美元，而 2021 年為 46.5 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 75 億美元，而 2021 年為 66 億美元。利潤率連續下降，2022 年下半年與上半年相比，第四季度與第三季度相比, 主要是受收入下降的驅動。

Turning to Slide 9. We carried 823,000 TEUs in the fourth quarter compared to 858,000 TEUs during the same period last year, a decline of 4% compared to the market decline of 8.5%. And for the full year, we carried 3.4 million TEU, there is a 3% decline compared to 2021, slightly better than the market decline of 4% in that quarter -- sorry, in the full year period. Lower volume on transpacific, driven by congestion and lower demand, were partially offset by higher volume in other trade lanes.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們在第四季度運載了 823,000 個標準箱，而去年同期為 858,000 個標準箱，與市場下降 8.5% 相比下降了 4%。全年，我們運載了 340 萬標準箱，與 2021 年相比下降了 3%，略好於該季度市場下降 4%——抱歉，是全年。由於交通擁堵和需求下降，跨太平洋航線的貨運量下降部分被其他貿易航線的貨運量增加所抵消。

Next, we present our cash flow bridge. And we ended 2022 with a total liquidity position of $4.6 billion. Important here to emphasize that this includes cash and cash equivalents. investments in bank deposits and other investment instruments.

接下來，我們介紹我們的現金流橋。到 2022 年，我們的總流動資金頭寸為 46 億美元。這裡需要強調的是，這包括現金和現金等價物。投資於銀行存款和其他投資工具。

For the full year, our adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 billion converted into $6.1 billion of cash flow generated from operating activities. And other cash flow items included $314 million of net capital expenditure, $1.7 billion of debt service, mostly lease liabilities, and dividend distribution of $3.3 billion.

全年，我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 75 億美元，轉化為經營活動產生的 61 億美元現金流。其他現金流項目包括 3.14 億美元的淨資本支出、17 億美元的償債（主要是租賃負債）和 33 億美元的股息分配。

Moving to our guidance. As Eli already mentioned, we expect to generate positive EBIT in 2023. Specifically, we expect to generate in 2023 EBITDA of $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion and an EBIT range between $100 million to $500 million. We believe freight rates are close to bottom, and we expect some improvement in 2023.

轉向我們的指導。正如 Eli 已經提到的，我們預計 2023 年將產生正的 EBIT。具體來說，我們預計 2023 年的 EBITDA 將達到 18 億至 22 億美元，EBIT 將在 1 億至 5 億美元之間。我們認為運費已接近底部，預計 2023 年會有所改善。

Further, we also expect our volumes to grow in 2023 as compared to last year, as we receive our newbuild capacity and are able to better optimize our fleet. As for bunker costs, we expect lower rates this year versus last year. Overall, while we don't give quarterly guidance, we do expect improved results in the second half of 2023 as compared to the first half. So we are entering this unpredictable time with a strong balance sheet, a significant cash balance of $4.6 billion and 0 net leverage.

此外，我們還預計 2023 年我們的銷量將比去年增長，因為我們獲得了新造船能力並且能夠更好地優化我們的船隊。至於燃油成本，我們預計今年的費率將低於去年。總體而言，雖然我們沒有給出季度指引，但我們確實預計 2023 年下半年的業績會比上半年有所改善。因此，我們正以強勁的資產負債表、46 億美元的巨額現金餘額和零淨槓桿進入這個不可預測的時期。

As such, our Board of Directors declared a dividend to shareholders, which including prior dividends paid on account of 2022 results totaled 44% of 2022 net income. We do remain committed to returning capital to shareholders under our current dividend policy of returning to shareholders 30% to 50% of our annual net income. Other capital allocation priorities remain intact. We have a commitment of approximately $155 million and $340 million in '23 and '24, respectively, as down payments for newbuild vessels chartered primarily from Seaspan, of which we already paid $13 million for the first 15,000 TEU ship delivered to us last month.

因此，我們的董事會宣布向股東派發股息，其中包括之前根據 2022 年業績支付的股息，總計佔 2022 年淨收入的 44%。根據我們目前的股息政策，我們仍然致力於向股東返還資本，即向股東返還我們年度淨收入的 30% 至 50%。其他資本配置優先事項保持不變。我們在 23 年和 24 年分別承諾支付約 1.55 億美元和 3.4 億美元，作為主要從 Seaspan 租用的新造船的預付款，其中我們已經為上個月交付給我們的第一艘 15,000 TEU 船支付了 1,300 萬美元。

We will continue to renew our container fleet and we continue to explore inorganic growth through the potential acquisition of regional liners in key markets such as Southeast Asia or Latin America. The backdrop against we are providing guidance today is extremely challenging. The supply demand imbalance points to oversupply in '23 and '24.

我們將繼續更新我們的集裝箱船隊，並通過潛在地收購東南亞或拉丁美洲等主要市場的支線班輪，繼續探索無機增長。我們今天提供指導的背景極具挑戰性。供需失衡表明 23 年和 24 年供過於求。

Demand is soft. And as a result, congestion in U.S. ports and elsewhere hasn't won. Despite lower volumes in recent months, inventory to sales ratio was still below pre-pandemic level, has not come down and various large U.S. retailers expressed caution with respect to their 2023 sales. These factors, among others, are causing freight rates to continue sliding, though at a slower pace as compared to the fall of 2022. Yet there may be factors on both the supply and demand side that could mitigate the supply-demand imbalance.

需求疲軟。結果，美國港口和其他地方的擁堵並沒有成功。儘管最近幾個月銷量有所下降，但庫存與銷售比率仍低於大流行前的水平，並沒有下降，而且美國多家大型零售商對 2023 年的銷售額表示謹慎。這些因素以及其他因素導致運費繼續下滑，儘管與 2022 年秋季相比下滑速度有所放緩。然而，供需雙方可能都有一些因素可以緩解供需失衡。

Capacity may be impacted by slippage. In fact, we've received indications with respect to some of our chartered newbuild vessels on potential delays. Scrapping also remains low, but the combination of practically no scrapping in the past 2 years and increased compliance requirement with IMO 2023 regulation may also decrease net supply.

容量可能會受到滑移的影響。事實上，我們已經收到了一些關於我們的一些租用新造船可能延誤的跡象。拆船量也仍然很低，但過去 2 年幾乎沒有拆船，加上 IMO 2023 法規的合規性要求增加，也可能會減少淨供應量。

On the demand side, we believe that in 2023, we will see a return to a more normal demand pattern with demand stronger in the second half of the year, especially given the current weak demand.

在需求方面，我們認為到 2023 年，我們將看到下半年需求更加強勁，特別是在當前需求疲軟的情況下，我們將看到回歸到更正常的需求模式。

And on this note, we will open the call for questions.

在這張紙條上，我們將公開提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is coming from Nokta Omar from Jefferies. Please go ahead and ask your question.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Nokta Omar。請繼續提問。

Yes, definitely earnings coming in stronger than a lot of us had expected. And I just wanted to ask maybe about the -- if you could expand just a little bit about the earnings surprise, perhaps, the other revenue line item, I guess the non-container portion of the revenue, those were their highest ever at $442 million. What's behind the upwards move there? And what can we kind of expect as we move here in the next several quarters?

是的，收益肯定比我們很多人預期的要強。我只是想問一下——如果你能稍微擴展一下收入驚喜，也許，其他收入項目，我想收入的非集裝箱部分，這是他們有史以來最高的 442 美元百萬。那裡向上移動的背後是什麼？當我們在接下來的幾個季度搬到這裡時，我們可以期待什麼？

Sure. Thank you, Omar, for the question. As far as we are concerned, the Q4 results did not surprise us and we are pretty much in sync with the guidance that we provided the market with back in November. But to your question with respect to the contribution of non-containerized income, we did benefit still in the fourth quarter from 2 strong factors. First, detention and demurrage, especially relevant on the transpacific trade lanes and in the U.S. were still quite high. We still experienced congestion in Q4, although now this has pretty much didn't wind itself.

當然。奧馬爾，謝謝你提出這個問題。就我們而言，第四季度的結果並沒有讓我們感到意外，而且我們與我們在 11 月份向市場提供的指導非常一致。但是對於你關於非集裝箱收入貢獻的問題，我們確實在第四季度從兩個強大的因素中受益。首先，滯留費和滯期費仍然很高，尤其是在跨太平洋貿易航線和美國。我們在第 4 季度仍然遇到擁堵，儘管現在這種情況幾乎沒有消失。

And second, when it comes to our car carrier activity, we've been growing, and we continue to grow our presence in this market, and it has contributed to also a significant impact on our revenue and also on our bottom line. And we expect the car carrier activity to continue to contribute positively to our earnings next year and in the years to come.

其次，在我們的汽車運輸活動方面，我們一直在增長，並且我們繼續擴大我們在這個市場的影響力，這也對我們的收入和利潤產生了重大影響。我們預計汽車運輸活動將在明年和未來幾年繼續為我們的收益做出積極貢獻。

Got it. And then maybe just kind of big picture. Clearly, from the press release, the presentation and your comments here, you at ZIM, you feel very confident despite the soft market we're seeing today, which you'll have positive EBIT and maybe perhaps positive earnings, I guess, overall for '23. I guess as we kind of think about the market as it is today, how would you characterize things as I already mentioned that you expect rates to be at bottom here in the near term and the recovery coming. What's going on in the market from say, -- from your perspective, from say the demand angle, are we seeing an actual substantial drop in demand? Or is this more of an unwinding of retail inventory and thus, we may not really have a good clear picture of where demand is until that inventory unwinds completely?

知道了。然後也許只是一種大局。很明顯，從新聞稿、演示文稿和您在這裡的評論來看，您在 ZIM，儘管我們今天看到的市場疲軟，但您仍然非常有信心，您將獲得正的息稅前利潤，也許還有正收益，我想，總體而言'23。我想當我們考慮今天的市場時，你會如何描述我已經提到的事情，你預計利率將在短期內觸底，復甦即將到來。市場上發生了什麼，從你的角度來看，從需求的角度來看，我們是否看到需求實際大幅下降？或者這更像是零售庫存的平倉，因此，在庫存完全平倉之前，我們可能無法真正清楚地了解需求在哪裡？

No, that's a good question. There is clearly a lot of uncertainties ahead. And you said that we are confident. I would say that we are confident in the actions that we took in 2021 and in 2022 to make sure that we are well prepared to enter into this new normal post-pandemic. And so our cost structure is going down, and this is the one lever where we can have an action upon that we've been very active in ensuring that we drive the cost down. So that we've done.

不，這是個好問題。未來顯然有很多不確定性。你說我們有信心。我想說的是，我們對我們在 2021 年和 2022 年採取的行動充滿信心，以確保我們為進入大流行後新常態做好充分準備。因此我們的成本結構正在下降，這是我們可以採取行動的一個槓桿，我們一直非常積極地確保我們降低成本。這樣我們就完成了。

And now when it comes to the demand, clearly, we've seen the demand softening throughout the second half of last year. We've seen a destocking type of strategy by the main retailers in the U.S. that was very aggressively performed in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of this year of 2023. With that, you've seen that the capacity has been adjusted with more and more blank savings. But as we were implementing more blank savings the demand was still softening even more. So we believe that at some point, this destocking effect will end and the retailers will have to come back and replenish their inventories. Hence, why we are reasonably optimistic when it comes to the statement that we are making. We think that the market is close to reaching a bottom before the demand starts to come back. And as a result, we expect that will have a positive effect on the overall freight rates.

現在說到需求，很明顯，我們已經看到去年下半年需求疲軟。我們已經看到美國主要零售商採取了一種去庫存策略，該策略在第四季度和今年 2023 年第一季度都非常積極地執行。因此，您已經看到產能已經調整越來越多的空白儲蓄。但隨著我們實施更多的空白儲蓄，需求仍然更加疲軟。所以我們相信，在某個時候，這種去庫存效應將會結束，零售商將不得不回來補充庫存。因此，當涉及到我們所做的聲明時，為什麼我們相當樂觀。我們認為，在需求開始回升之前，市場已接近觸底。因此，我們預計這將對整體運費產生積極影響。

And maybe just one final one, just about the contracting that's hopefully are potentially underway now. How are things developing here for the 2023 contracting season. Clearly, there's been a big disconnect between contract rates historically and where spot rates are. What's going on in that market? And how are you preparing for that?

也許只是最後一個，只是希望現在可能正在進行的合同。 2023 年承包季的情況如何？顯然，歷史上的合同利率與即期利率之間存在很大的脫節。那個市場上發生了什麼？你是如何準備的？

Yes. Clearly, the market today, when we look at where the (inaudible) trade lane kind of pushes the shippers to ask for a significant rate reduction compared to last year and we very well understand that. So the one thing I would say is that the company is, -- has engaged with most of our key customers with whom we would like to enter into a contract settlement, both from a quantity perspective and from a rate perspective.

是的。顯然，今天的市場，當我們看到（聽不清）貿易通道在什麼地方推動托運人要求與去年相比大幅降低運費時，我們非常理解這一點。因此，我要說的一件事是，公司已經與我們希望與之簽訂合同結算的大多數主要客戶進行了接觸，無論是從數量角度還是從費率角度。

First, what we are hearing today from our customer base is that they are very pleased with them, and then -- and we hear a lot of positive feedback and comments on the fact -- on the very fact that we are the first liner to deploy in LNG service on the Asia to the U.S. East Coast. And that resonates very strongly to vis-a-vis our customer base. So now we do hope that it will translate into the final discussions on the rate to levels where we would both shippers and ourselves, be happy. We clearly haven't set ourselves a limit in terms of where we are not willing to go in terms of floor. For now, the discussions are ongoing. It's still too early to say what will be the final outcome of all those decisions. But clearly, we feel that from a commercial positioning perspective, the name and the brand of ZIM resonates pretty high in the eyes of our customers in the U.S.

首先，我們今天從我們的客戶群那裡聽到的是他們對他們非常滿意，然後——我們聽到了很多積極的反饋和評論——事實上我們是第一家在亞洲部署液化天然氣服務到美國東海岸。這對我們的客戶群產生了強烈的共鳴。所以現在我們確實希望它能轉化為關於費率的最終討論，達到我們對托運人和我們自己都滿意的水平。我們顯然沒有就我們不願意去的地方設定限制。目前，討論仍在進行中。現在說所有這些決定的最終結果是什麼還為時過早。但很明顯，我們覺得從商業定位的角度來看，ZIM 的名稱和品牌在美國客戶眼中引起了很高的共鳴。

Got it. And sorry, just one tiny follow-up to that is, are you able to give a ratio or percentage of how much of your 23 business you've got under contract so far?

知道了。抱歉，只有一個小的後續行動是，你能給出你的 23 家企業中到目前為止有多少合同的比例或百分比嗎？

We are still looking into 50-50 and the ratio that we've been during by over the past few years, a 50% contract cargo and 50% spot is still pretty much where we would like to end. But again, we will see where we end when we finalize each of the discussions with each of our customers. And if the rates are not satisfactory to our sales, we might revisit that percentage allocation and agree to expose ourselves more to spot market. We think that the second half is going to be indeed better than the first.

我們仍在研究 50-50 的比例，我們在過去幾年中的比例，50% 的合同貨物和 50% 的現貨仍然是我們想要結束的地方。但同樣，當我們完成與每個客戶的每次討論時，我們將看到我們的結局。如果費率對我們的銷售不滿意，我們可能會重新考慮該百分比分配並同意更多地接觸現貨市場。我們認為下半場確實會比上半場好。

Okay. And just for clarity, the 50-50 is just on the transpacific.

好的。為清楚起見，50-50 僅在跨太平洋地區。

Correct. Correct. This is really the trade where we have a significant amount of our volume that is being contracted. We feel on the other trade lanes and mainly on the Asia Med, we also have a contract discussion with customers, but those are more quarterly as opposed to yearly. And in terms of quantum, I would say it's 25% of the trade compared to the 50% of the transpacific.

正確的。正確的。這確實是我們有大量交易量的交易。我們認為在其他貿易通道上，主要是亞洲地中海，我們也與客戶進行合同討論，但這些更多是季度而不是年度。就數量而言，我想說它佔貿易的 25%，而跨太平洋貿易占 50%。

The next question is coming from Bland Sam from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Bland Sam。

It's Sam Bland here. I have 2 questions, please. The first one is on the charters you mentioned the sort of maturity profile. Is your current plan to let them run to maturity on the sort of agreed time scale? Or are there any options to either accelerate or delay -- how are you thinking about that?

我是山姆·布蘭德。我有 2 個問題，請。第一個是關於你提到的那種成熟度概況的章程。您目前的計劃是讓它們在約定的時間範圍內運行到成熟嗎？或者是否有任何加速或延遲的選擇——你是如何考慮的？

And the second question is you mentioned slippage of the order book in the presentation. We've heard that from Eliyahu as well. Do you think it's possible that the slippage could be quite a material amount of the orders or the deliveries planned for '23, '24? Or are we talking about sort of small bits around the edges?

第二個問題是您在演示文稿中提到了訂單簿的下滑。我們也從 Eliyahu 那裡聽說過。您是否認為延誤可能是 23 年、24 年計劃的大量訂單或交貨？或者我們是在談論邊緣周圍的一些小位？

Good morning to you, Sam. Yes, the first question in terms of the charter. Clearly, we need to differentiate here, I think, the long-term charter, the newbuild vessels that we've ordered over the past 2 years. So those -- clearly, we intend to take delivery of each and every vessel. We are eagerly awaiting those vessels. They are clearly in line with our vessel strategy and commercial strategy. So there is here no intention from the company to cancel delay any of those contracts.

早上好，山姆。是的，關於章程的第一個問題。顯然，我認為我們需要在這里區分長期租船，以及我們在過去兩年訂購的新造船。所以那些 - 顯然，我們打算接收每艘船。我們熱切地等待著這些船隻。它們顯然符合我們的船舶戰略和商業戰略。因此，公司無意取消延遲任何這些合同。

On the more traditional charter market when we charter from the tonnage provider existing tonnage as opposed to the newbuild tonnage that I was just referring to. In '21, '22, we did enter into a significant amount of contract for a duration of 3 to 5 years. So by and large, this is what is driving the average duration of what's left in our chartering agreement. So meaning that between '23, '24, we have a few vessels up for renewal, but it will really come back in 2025 and beyond -- yes, 2025 and beyond.

在更傳統的租船市場上，當我們從噸位供應商那裡租用現有噸位而不是我剛才提到的新建噸位時。在 21 年和 22 年，我們確實簽訂了大量為期 3 到 5 年的合同。所以總的來說，這就是推動我們租船協議中剩餘時間的平均持續時間的原因。所以這意味著在 23 年和 24 年之間，我們有幾艘船需要更新，但它真的會在 2025 年及以後恢復——是的，2025 年及以後。

Now when we look at the vessels that come up for renewal in '23 and in '24, that's clearly a 50 vessels. Most of them, it is very likely, depending on what the market does, but if the market conditions remain difficult, most of those vessels will be redelivered. We do not intend to break any of our commitment vis-a-vis any of the tonnage provider. We will make the decision to redeliver tonnage when we have the ability to do so or engage early with some tonnage provider to potentially discuss extension if we think and at a lower rate, obviously, if we think that this said vessel is -- will be of use for us for a longer period.

現在，當我們查看 23 年和 24 年需要更新的船隻時，這顯然是 50 艘船隻。他們中的大多數，很可能取決於市場的表現，但如果市場狀況仍然困難，其中大部分船隻將被重新交付。我們無意違反我們對任何噸位供應商的承諾。當我們有能力這樣做時，我們將決定重新交付噸位，或者儘早與一些噸位供應商接觸，如果我們認為並且以較低的費率討論延期，顯然，如果我們認為這艘船是 - 將會對我們的使用時間更長。

With respect to your second point and slippage, it's difficult to assess to what extent it will have a significant impact. Clearly, for us, we are very much in front of that matter because we are awaiting the 15,000 TEU ships that we've ordered out of the (inaudible) of those ships initially were expected to be delivered in 2023. We have received the first one. We know that we will receive the second and the third in the coming weeks.

關於你的第二點和滑點，很難評估它會在多大程度上產生重大影響。顯然，對我們來說，我們在這件事上遙遙領先，因為我們正在等待我們訂購的 15,000 TEU 船，這些船最初預計將在 2023 年交付（聽不清）。我們已經收到了第一艘一。我們知道我們將在未來幾週內收到第二個和第三個。

But we've been advised that there might be a delay for some of the vessels that were meant to be delivered to us in 2023 from that very specific shipyard. So we do think that some of the shipyards in Asia do have manpower or resource issue which is affecting us. There's no reason to think that it is not more widely affecting the overall industry. When it comes to the other vessels that we have up for delivery towards the end of the year and the 2024. Today, we don't know yet, but we anticipate that there might be as well some delay.

但是我們被告知，一些原定於 2023 年從那個非常特定的造船廠交付給我們的船隻可能會有所延遲。所以我們確實認為亞洲的一些造船廠確實存在影響我們的人力或資源問題。沒有理由認為它不會更廣泛地影響整個行業。至於我們要在年底和 2024 年交付的其他船隻。今天，我們還不知道，但我們預計可能會有一些延遲。

Okay. Just to be sure, on the first answer, when you say redelivered, so your current charter will be redelivered, does that mean handed back to the charter?

好的。可以肯定的是，在第一個答案中，當你說 redelivered 時，你當前的租船合同將被重新交付，這是否意味著交回租船合同？

Correct, to the (inaudible).

正確，對（聽不清）。

The next question is coming from Sathish Sivakumar.

下一個問題來自 Sathish Sivakumar。

I've got 3 questions here. So firstly, on the restocking, right? So obviously, there has been this sense of opinion that volumes are looking -- at is the trends into the second half of the year looking great. Are we seeing signs of recovery? And what are you actually seeing based on your conversation with the shippers? And how does it actually differ from, say, normal seasonality related movements that you normally get at on this point in the year?

我在這裡有 3 個問題。那麼首先，關於進貨，對吧？很明顯，人們一直在關注這種觀點——今年下半年的趨勢看起來不錯。我們看到復甦的跡象了嗎？根據您與托運人的談話，您實際看到了什麼？它實際上與您通常在一年中的這個時間點獲得的正常季節性相關運動有何不同？

And the second one is actually around the 2M alliance. Obviously, with the merge coming out of the alliance, what does it mean for you within 2M? How much of your DSA is actually related to Maersk, what is your exposure to Maersk versus MSC? And then, say, into the dividend payment for FY '23, given that we might see a second step down on normalization, would you still stick with your quarterly dividend payments given potentially there will be quarters where you could probably end up loss making. What are your thoughts around the quarterly dividend payment?

而第二個其實是圍繞著2M聯盟。很明顯，隨著聯盟的合併，2M之內對你來說意味著什麼？您的 DSA 有多少實際上與馬士基相關，您對馬士基和 MSC 的敞口是多少？然後，比如說，在 23 財年的股息支付中，鑑於我們可能會看到正常化的第二步，你是否仍會堅持你的季度股息支付，因為可能會有幾個季度你可能最終會虧損。您對季度股息支付有何看法？

Thank you, Sathish. So with regard to your first question on potential restocking, we -- this is really early days to come to a definite conclusion as to when the volume or the demand will come back up.

謝謝你，薩西什。因此，關於您關於潛在補貨的第一個問題，我們 - 現在就數量或需求何時恢復做出明確結論還為時過早。

But clearly, we are getting some early indication and early signs that the inventories and once the inventories have come down to the level where the main retailers want them to be, the demand will be surfaced. And that from a seasonality perspective, also indeed collide in the first quarter of 2023, with the traditional flag season that is the period in terms of ordering and demand affecting the trailings where we operate.

但很明顯，我們得到了一些早期跡象和早期跡象表明庫存，一旦庫存下降到主要零售商希望的水平，需求就會浮出水面。從季節性的角度來看，這也確實在 2023 年第一季度發生了衝突，傳統的旗幟季節是訂購和需求影響我們經營的拖尾的時期。

So today, in the early days of 2023, we have the combination of those 2 element, which is the destocking and the slack season. Hence why, again, we truly do believe that we are near to a bottom in terms of demand and therefore, in terms of potential rate in some trade lanes.

所以今天，在 2023 年初，我們結合了這兩個因素，即去庫存和淡季。因此，為什麼我們再次真正相信我們在需求方面接近底部，因此，在某些貿易通道的潛在利率方面。

When it comes to the second question, the 2M and the breakup or the future breakup of the alliance between Maersk and MSC, I think, by and large, this doesn't come as a significant surprise for all of us that have been watching this industry and how everyone is pursuing different strategies.

關於第二個問題，即 2M 以及馬士基和 MSC 之間聯盟的破裂或未來的破裂，我認為，總的來說，這對我們所有一直在關注這個問題的人來說並不令人感到意外行業以及每個人如何追求不同的戰略。

As far as we are concerned, we have been collaborating with both of them, and we do collaborate with both of them on the transpacific trading, obviously, but also individually on some other trades. Our relationship with Maersk and with MSC is extremely good. We have benefited, and I think all of us did benefit from working together over the past 5 years now or 4 years, should I say, we started in 2018 in the summer.

就我們而言，我們一直在與他們合作，我們確實在跨太平洋貿易方面與他們合作，但在其他一些貿易方面也單獨合作。我們與馬士基和 MSC 的關係非常好。我們從中受益，我認為我們所有人都從過去 5 年或 4 年的合作中受益，我應該說，我們從 2018 年夏天開始。

And we intend to continue to discuss with all the major shipping lines on the trade where we do believe it makes sense from a company perspective, from an industry perspective and from an end customer perspective to better utilize and better operate our fleet. So we are an important player in terms of market share on the transpacific and we see no reason why we will not continue to work with Maersk, with MSC, with both of them, with one of them in the longer term. For now, the relationship is still very strong and very efficient up until, I think, January 2025 is the date when they will part ways.

我們打算繼續與貿易中的所有主要航運公司進行討論，我們認為從公司的角度、行業的角度和最終客戶的角度來看，更好地利用和更好地運營我們的船隊是有意義的。因此，就跨太平洋市場份額而言，我們是一個重要的參與者，我們認為沒有理由不繼續與馬士基、地中海航運、兩者以及其中之一長期合作。目前，在我認為 2025 年 1 月他們分道揚鑣之前，這種關係仍然非常牢固且非常有效。

And with respect to your last question on dividend. Yes, it's been very important since day 1 for the company to return significant capital to shareholders. And we've been, I think, true to that statement since day 1. We -- for now, there's no reason to think that our dividend policy may change. As of today, it stands as it is.

關於你最後一個關於股息的問題。是的，從第一天起，公司就將大量資本返還給股東，這一點非常重要。我認為，我們從第一天起就一直遵守該聲明。我們——目前，沒有理由認為我們的股息政策可能會改變。直到今天，它仍然保持原樣。

As you know, every quarter, no matter what, irrespective of the dividend policy, the Board makes a decision and renews a decision every quarter as to what is the dividend that is due to be paid. So we'll see where we end in 2023, every quarter, the discussion will take place at Board level.

如您所知，每個季度，無論如何，無論股息政策如何，董事會都會做出決定並每季度更新一次關於應支付的股息是多少的決定。因此，我們將看到我們在 2023 年結束時，每個季度，討論將在董事會層面進行。

Just a follow-up on the comment on Maersk and MSC. So would you mean to say that into 2025 or beyond that, you would still work with both MSC and Maersk on an individual basis?

只是對馬士基和 MSC 評論的跟進。那麼你的意思是說到 2025 年或之後，你仍將單獨與 MSC 和馬士基合作？

What I'm saying is I don't know whether we will. I see no reason to think today that we won't. That's what I'm trying to get to. I don't know, we don't know today what will be the new set or the new scene in terms of -- whether Maersk and MSC will operate independently, whether there will be some reshuffling in the way the other shipping lines do interconnect. We don't know that.

我的意思是我不知道我們是否會。我認為今天沒有理由認為我們不會。這就是我想要達到的目的。我不知道，我們今天不知道新場景或新場景是什麼——馬士基和地中海航運是否會獨立運營，其他航運公司互連的方式是否會有一些改組.我們不知道。

What we know is that there is no reason for us not to consider working with any of them or with some others. By the way, it could also be very possible. So we will see. What we think is that we are a very important player again in terms of the market share that we comment, especially on the Asia U.S. East Coast trade lanes.

我們所知道的是，我們沒有理由不考慮與他們中的任何一個或與其他一些人合作。順便說一句，這也很有可能。所以我們會看到。我們認為，就我們評論的市場份額而言，我們再次成為非常重要的參與者，尤其是在亞洲美國東海岸貿易通道上。

We have a very efficient fleet with the 15,000 TEU ships that we are currently scaling up in this trade. So we are a very interesting partner to partner with, and there's no reason for us to think that the future when it comes to cooperation is not going to offer opportunities for them and for our potential future partners.

我們擁有一支非常高效的船隊，擁有 15,000 TEU 的船隻，我們目前正在擴大這項貿易的規模。所以我們是一個非常有趣的合作夥伴，我們沒有理由認為未來的合作不會為他們和我們潛在的未來合作夥伴提供機會。

The next question is coming from Alexia Dogani.

下一個問題來自 Alexia Dogani。

It's Alexia Dogani from Barclays. Just curious as well, please. Firstly, on the outlook for 2023. Given Eli's comments around profitability improving in the second half, are we basically expecting EBIT losses in the first half? And subsequent to that, obviously, you've talked about, Xavier, your expectation of spot rates improving from here. How much improvement are you expecting to meet your guidance range? I mean, to the extent you're willing to share.

我是巴克萊銀行的 Alexia Dogani。也只是好奇，請。首先，關於 2023 年的展望。鑑於伊萊關於下半年盈利能力改善的評論，我們是否基本上預計上半年的息稅前利潤將出現虧損？在此之後，很明顯，你已經談到，Xavier，你對即期匯率從這裡提高的期望。您期望達到指導範圍的改進程度是多少？我的意思是，在你願意分享的範圍內。

Secondly, on following up on Sam's questions on the vessels and the 58 vessels that are coming up for renewal over the next 2 years versus the 41 that you've already chartered. And the net of this should be kind of a double-digit decline in unit cost or less? And just on the comment of handing it back, would you be willing to reduce your fleet size from 138 containerships at the moment, down by 58 and under which scenario would you do that?

其次，關於跟進 Sam 關於船隻的問題以及未來 2 年將要續約的 58 艘船隻與您已經租用的 41 艘船隻的對比。淨值應該是單位成本下降兩位數或更少？就退還的評論而言，您是否願意將船隊規模從目前的 138 艘集裝箱船減少 58 艘，在哪種情況下您會這樣做？

And then finally, in terms of CapEx, can you remind us cash CapEx expectations for '23 and '24 and lease CapEx as well?

最後，就資本支出而言，您能否提醒我們對 23 年和 24 年的現金資本支出預期以及租賃資本支出？

Sure. Thank you, Alexia. First, on your question with regard to the outlook for 2023. Yes, we -- as we said, we expect the second half to be an improvement compared to the first. We do not, as you know, provide a calendar view when it comes to the guidance.

當然。謝謝你，亞歷克西婭。首先，關於你關於 2023 年前景的問題。是的，正如我們所說，我們預計下半年將比上半年有所改善。如您所知，我們不提供有關指南的日曆視圖。

You were asking whether that meant that we were expecting EBIT losses in the early part of 2023. Not necessarily, that we didn't say that. In terms of improvement also for us when it comes to the question on freight rates, what do we expect to see. As far as we are concerned, the -- it will be also a function of where we end up in our contract discussions with our customers on the transpacific trade lane.

您問這是否意味著我們預計 2023 年初會出現息稅前利潤損失。不一定，我們沒有這麼說。就運費問題而言，我們也有改進，我們希望看到什麼。就我們而言，這也將取決於我們在跨太平洋貿易航線上與客戶進行合同討論的最終結果。

If we are saying that 50% of our volume is meant to be contracted and then 50% will be on the spot, it's going to be a different effect if we end up otherwise. But providing that we end up where we, I think we will from a contract rate perspective, this provides us the comfort that we think that the second half in 2023 will be better market conditions overall for ZIM.

如果我們說我們 50% 的體積是要收縮的，然後 50% 將在現場，如果我們以其他方式結束，那將是不同的效果。但如果我們最終達到我們的水平，我認為從合同利率的角度來看，這讓我們感到安慰，我們認為 2023 年下半年對 ZIM 來說整體市場狀況會更好。

With respect to your second question, 58 vessels that potentially come up for renewal against the 41 that we will take delivery from over the next 2-year period, so all the way to the end of 2024. As to whether we will let go all of those 58 vessels, we will see it's not a one for one. I think this is what we need also to bear in mind.

關於你的第二個問題，有 58 艘船可能需要更新，而我們將在接下來的兩年內接收 41 艘船，一直到 2024 年底。至於我們是否會全部放棄在這 58 艘船中，我們將看到它不是一對一的。我認為這也是我們需要牢記的。

Very likely that the smaller capacity vessel, the feeder size type of ships that currently we employ or we deploy mainly on the Intra-Asia business as a [feedering] line, but also Intra-Asia services. Those vessels are needed by the company to maintain service and servicing those areas where we think there is, by the way, quite significant opportunity for growth.

很可能是容量較小的船舶，我們目前使用或部署的支線尺寸類型的船舶主要作為 [支線] 航線部署在亞洲內部業務上，但也包括亞洲內部服務。公司需要這些船隻來維持服務，並為那些我們認為有相當大的增長機會的地區提供服務。

So what will happen is there will be a cascading effect. We will take on larger capacity vessels. Those will come and replace ships that will be redeployed elsewhere. So we start with the 15,000 TEU ship that will come and replace the 10,000 TEU that we currently employ on the Asia-U.S. East coasts. Those will go and upsize those (inaudible) and so on and so forth. And then at the end of the day, we will let go some vessels that will be in the Panamax size type of segment mainly. So the big ships will keep on the big East-West trade. The smaller feeder sides vessels will be very much needed also in the regional trades where we operate.

所以會發生什麼會產生級聯效應。我們將採用更大容量的船隻。那些將來取代將被重新部署到別處的船隻。所以我們從 15,000 TEU 的船開始，它將取代我們目前在亞美航線上使用的 10,000 TEU。東海岸。那些將擴大那些（聽不清）等等。然後在一天結束時，我們將放棄一些主要屬於巴拿馬型船型的船隻。所以大船將繼續進行大型的東西方貿易。在我們經營的區域貿易中，也非常需要較小的支線船。

And in terms of addressing your last question on CapEx, we have the commitment to pay down at delivery of each of the LNG vessels that we've ordered a down payment. As you know, $13 million per ship for the 15,000 TEU vessels and $20 million per ship for the 7,000 TEU vessel. So that adds up to roughly $140 million in 2023 and another $350 million in 2024 according to the current delivery schedule.

關於解決您關於資本支出的最後一個問題，我們承諾在交付我們訂購的每艘液化天然氣船時支付預付款。如您所知，15,000 TEU 船每艘船 1300 萬美元，7,000 TEU 船每艘船 2000 萬美元。因此，根據目前的交付時間表，到 2023 年總計約 1.4 億美元，到 2024 年再增加 3.5 億美元。

On top of that, we will have the renewal of equipment, which will be limited because we have already secured and purchased a lot of equipment back in 2021. With the congestion being less of a problem this year, the rotation of the equipment is being facilitated. So we need less equipment in order to carry the same cargo. But still, we will continue to replace all the boxes with newer ones. And we will continue to, as we'll invest in developing our digital solutions, which is very important to us. We've been at the forefront of the digital transformation of the industry, and we intend to continue to keep this technological edge.

最重要的是，我們將進行設備的更新，這將是有限的，因為我們已經在 2021 年獲得併購買了很多設備。隨著今年擁堵問題的減少，設備的輪換正在進行中促進。所以我們需要更少的設備來運載同樣的貨物。但是，我們將繼續用更新的盒子替換所有盒子。我們將繼續，因為我們將投資開發我們的數字解決方案，這對我們來說非常重要。我們一直處於行業數字化轉型的前沿，我們打算繼續保持這一技術優勢。

And if can I just ask a clarification on the first answer. I mean, historically, contract rates are struck at the discount to spot for obvious reasons because shippers get kind of a discount for the volumes that commit a year forward. Based on the comments you made kind of makes me think that you share the opposite view. If that's the case, why should the contract rates, let's say, distract spot or at the premium spot conceptually?

如果我可以就第一個答案提出澄清。我的意思是，從歷史上看，由於明顯的原因，合同費率是按現價折扣來敲定的，因為托運人對未來一年承諾的數量有一定的折扣。根據您發表的評論，我認為您持有相反的觀點。如果是這樣的話，為什麼合同利率，比方說，在概念上分散現貨或溢價現貨？

Yes. I mean I think today's market environment is a little bit unique in a way. We just concluded that 2 years of extraordinary situation. We are today at, from a pendulum effect, if I may use this analogy, the market has gone very strongly in the opposite direction. I think both shippers and liners, I know that there is a middle range that is the natural equilibrium that we showed all the tender lean towards. Otherwise, the disruptions might affect the shippers as well.

是的。我的意思是，我認為今天的市場環境在某種程度上有點獨特。我們剛剛總結了 2 年的特殊情況。從鐘擺效應來看，如果我可以用這個類比的話，我們今天所處的位置是，市場在相反的方向上走勢非常強勁。我認為托運人和班輪公司，我知道有一個中間範圍是我們向所有投標人展示的自然平衡。否則，中斷也可能影響托運人。

If we don't get the risk that we believe makes sense for us to continue sailing, we will stop sailing. And then if we stop sailing, then it may have a more drastic effect on the ability of our customer to secure their supply chain. So I think it's not that simple in terms of where the market dynamics are leading us today. There are still quite a few weeks ahead of us before we finalize the discussions on the contract cargo. Whether we will end above, below or close to spot remains to be seen.

如果我們不冒我們認為對我們繼續航行有意義的風險，我們將停止航行。然後，如果我們停止航行，那麼它可能會對我們客戶確保其供應鏈安全的能力產生更劇烈的影響。因此，我認為就當今市場動態引領我們的方向而言，這並不是那麼簡單。在我們完成關於合同貨物的討論之前，我們還有好幾週的時間。我們是否會在現貨上方、下方或接近現貨結束還有待觀察。

For us, like I said, we have our objective, and our objective are customer by customers. We don't treat all customers the same way. We have a one-to-one relationship and we know exactly where we can go and where we want to go.

對我們來說，就像我說的，我們有我們的目標，我們的目標是逐個客戶。我們不會以同樣的方式對待所有客戶。我們有一對一的關係，我們確切地知道我們可以去哪里和我們想去哪裡。

This concludes our Q&A session, and I hand back to Eli Glickman, President and CEO, for closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束，我將返回給總裁兼首席執行官 Eli Glickman，徵求結束意見。

Thank you. Despite challenging market conditions towards the end of the year, we continue to execute our global [MIX] strategy and deliver outstanding execution and profitable growth in 2022. Full year EBITDA and EBIT results were all-time records.

謝謝。儘管年底前市場形勢充滿挑戰，但我們繼續執行我們的全球 [MIX] 戰略，並在 2022 年實現出色的執行和盈利增長。全年 EBITDA 和 EBIT 結果創歷史新高。

As a result of our outstanding cash generation and strong balance sheet, we declared a Q4 dividend of approximately $769 million or $6.4 per share. While the near-term liner industry outlook may be uncertain with increased supply and weaker demand trends, as Xavier discussed, we believe there are reasons for optimism as we look ahead.

由於我們出色的現金生成能力和強勁的資產負債表，我們宣布派發約 7.69 億美元或每股 6.4 美元的第四季度股息。正如 Xavier 所討論的那樣，儘管近期班輪行業前景可能因供應增加和需求趨勢疲軟而不確定，但我們相信在展望未來時我們有理由保持樂觀。

We took deliberate steps over the past 2 years to both diversify our commercial presence and improve our cost structure, enabling the company to continue to strive in more normalized environment like the one we are experiencing today. We remain highly confident that we have the right strategy in place with our competitive, efficient and cost-effective newbuild capacity on the way. And our investment in digital innovation and disruptive technologies continue to position ZIM to best serve customers and shareholders over the long term. Thank you all.

在過去的 2 年裡，我們採取了慎重的措施，使我們的商業存在多樣化並改善我們的成本結構，使公司能夠在我們今天所經歷的更加規範化的環境中繼續努力。我們仍然非常有信心，我們已經制定了正確的戰略，我們正在建設具有競爭力、高效且具有成本效益的新造船能力。我們對數字創新和顛覆性技術的投資繼續使 ZIM 能夠長期為客戶和股東提供最佳服務。謝謝你們。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們，先生們，會議現已結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的加入，祝您度過愉快的一天。再見。