以星航運 (ZIM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. I'm Francy, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the ZIM Integrated Shipping Service Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，女士們，先生們。謝謝你的支持。我是 Francy，您的合唱呼叫接線員。歡迎並感謝您參加以星綜合航運服務 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It's my pleasure, and I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Elana Holzman, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

我很高興，現在我想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Elana Holzman 女士。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Francy, and welcome to ZIM's second quarter 2022 financial results conference call. Joining me on the call today are Eli Glickman, ZIM's President and CEO; and Xavier Destriau, ZIM's CFO. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events or results.

謝謝您，Francy，歡迎參加以星 2022 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有以星總裁兼首席執行官 Eli Glickman；和以星的首席財務官 Xavier Destriau。在開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將就預期、預測、預測或未來事件或結果做出前瞻性陳述。

We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable. We wish to caution you that such statements reflect only the company's current expectations and that actual events or results may differ, including materially. You are kindly referred to consider the risk factors and cautionary language described in the documents the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 2021 annual report filed on Form 20-F on March 9, 1922 -- sorry, 2022. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

我們相信我們的預期和假設是合理的。我們希望提醒您，此類聲明僅反映公司當前的預期，實際事件或結果可能會有所不同，包括重大差異。請您考慮公司向證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的風險因素和警示性語言，包括我們於 1922 年 3 月 9 日以 20-F 表格提交的 2021 年年度報告——對不起，2022 年。我們承諾沒有義務更新這些前瞻性陳述。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to ZIM's CEO, Eli Glickman. Eli?

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給以星的首席執行官 Eli Glickman。伊萊？

Thank you, Elana, and welcome everyone to today's call. I'm really proud of our execution and continued strong financial performance during the second quarter and first half of 2022, as you can see in Slide #3. Over the past several quarters, ZIM established itself as the leader in terms of EBITDA and EBIT margin in container shipping. Our first half results had record results for ZIM and we are pleased to continue delivering strong EBITDA and EBIT margins.

謝謝你，Elana，歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議。正如您在幻燈片 #3 中看到的那樣，我為我們在 2022 年第二季度和上半年的執行和持續強勁的財務表現感到非常自豪。在過去的幾個季度中，以星在集裝箱航運的 EBITDA 和 EBIT 利潤率方面確立了自己的領先地位。我們上半年的業績為以星創造了創紀錄的業績，我們很高興繼續提供強勁的 EBITDA 和 EBIT 利潤率。

Based on our solid performance in the first half, we are reaffirming our full year guidance for 2022 and are on track to deliver another year of record earnings and profitability. We are also announcing today the increase in our quarterly dividend payout from 20% to 30% of quarterly net income. This quarterly increase is based on our confidence in our ability to deliver long-term and consistent profitability while enabling our shareholders to benefit sooner from these strong results on a quarterly basis.

基於我們上半年的穩健表現，我們重申對 2022 年的全年指導，並有望再創歷史新高。我們今天還宣布將季度股息支付從季度淨收入的 20% 增加到 30%。這一季度增長是基於我們對我們提供長期和持續盈利能力的信心，同時使我們的股東能夠更快地從這些強勁的季度業績中受益。

As you can see in Slide #3, in the first half of 2022, revenue grew by 73% compared to the same period in 2021. Adjusted EBITDA grew 115% and net income grew 106% as we further capitalize on elevated freight rates and resilient demand. We remain committed to profitable growth. In the first half of 2022, adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 52% to 65% and adjusted EBIT margin improved from 45% to 56%. Our balance sheet continued to be very strong, with total equity of $5.25 billion at the end of the quarter after the distribution of $2.4 billion in dividends during the first half of 2022.

正如您在幻燈片 #3 中看到的，在 2022 年上半年，與 2021 年同期相比，收入增長了 73%。隨著我們進一步利用高運費和彈性，調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 115%，淨收入增長了 106%要求。我們仍然致力於盈利性增長。 2022年上半年，調整後EBITDA利潤率從52%提高到65%，調整後EBIT利潤率從45%提高到56%。我們的資產負債表繼續非常強勁，在 2022 年上半年分配了 24 億美元的股息後，本季度末的總股本為 52.5 億美元。

In Slide #4, you can see that returning capital to shareholders has been and remains a top priority for us, given our confidence in our long-term profitability [and got to reward] long-term shareholders, we are increasing our quarterly dividend payout from 20% of quarterly net income to 30% of quarterly net income with the total dividend payout of 30% to 50% annual net income. As such, starting this quarter, we intend to distribute approximately 30% of quarterly net income for each of the first 3 quarters of the year with possible step-up up to 50% of annual net income with the release of Q4 and full year results subject to Board approval.

在幻燈片 #4 中，您可以看到向股東返還資本一直是並且仍然是我們的首要任務，鑑於我們對長期盈利能力的信心 [並必須獎勵] 長期股東，我們正在增加季度股息支付從季度淨收入的 20% 到季度淨收入的 30%，總股息支付為年度淨收入的 30% 到 50%。因此，從本季度開始，我們打算在今年前三個季度的每個季度分配約 30% 的季度淨收入，隨著第四季度和全年業績的發布，可能會增加至年度淨收入的 50%須經董事會批准。

Accordingly, our Board declared a Q2 dividend of $4.7 -- 75 -- $4.75 per share or a total of approximately $571 million. The Q2 dividend includes a 10% onetime catch-up from Q1 net income. In Slide #4, you can see that the past several weeks have demonstrated the dynamic nature of our industry and the importance of staying focused on our core strategy and key strengths. Innovation, agility and excellence were the foundation of ZIM successful turnaround and they will continue to guide our commercial and operational strategy to further position ZIM as the top performer in our industry.

因此，我們的董事會宣布第二季度股息為每股 4.7-75-4.75 美元或總計約 5.71 億美元。第二季度的股息包括第一季度淨收入的 10% 的一次性追趕。在幻燈片 #4 中，您可以看到過去幾週展示了我們行業的動態性質以及保持專注於我們的核心戰略和關鍵優勢的重要性。創新、敏捷和卓越是 ZIM 成功轉型的基礎，它們將繼續指導我們的商業和運營戰略，進一步將 ZIM 定位為行業中的佼佼者。

We have established a track record of successfully identified attractive growth opportunities and adjusting our fleet size based on changing market conditions. This is a direct result of our operational and commercial agility, which has enabled ZIM to optimize vessel deployment, support high utilization level of vessels and exploit specific trade advantages driving our strong results and strong profitability. We expect this approach to continue to be beneficial as the market expected to normalize from peak levels.

我們已經建立了成功識別有吸引力的增長機會並根據不斷變化的市場條件調整我們的船隊規模的記錄。這是我們運營和商業敏捷性的直接結果，這使以星能夠優化船舶部署、支持船舶的高利用率並利用特定的貿易優勢推動我們強勁的業績和強勁的盈利能力。我們預計這種方法將繼續有益，因為市場預計將從峰值水平恢復正常。

Our global-niche strategy details that we operate in trade lanes where we have competitive advantage and can command meaningful market share. In Q2, we expanded our operating fleet capacity. We now operate 149 vessels to meet customer demand. We open new lines and adjust our service to address changes in the business environment, so our vessels continue to sail full. I remind you that we have expanded our fleet over the past few quarters, partly in anticipation of the change in our collaboration agreement with the 2M. We transitioned to a full slot swap agreement on the Asia to U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast and terminated the slot purchase agreement we had on the P&W and Asia-Med trades.

我們的全球利基戰略詳細說明了我們在具有競爭優勢並可以獲得有意義的市場份額的貿易航線上運營。在第二季度，我們擴大了我們的運營車隊容量。我們現在運營 149 艘船舶以滿足客戶需求。我們開闢新航線並調整服務以應對商業環境的變化，因此我們的船隻繼續滿載航行。我提醒您，我們在過去幾個季度擴大了我們的機隊，部分原因是我們預計與 2M 的合作協議會發生變化。我們過渡到亞洲至美國東海岸和墨西哥灣沿岸的完整插槽互換協議，並終止了我們在 P&W 和亞洲-地中海交易中的插槽購買協議。

As a result of these changes, which went into effect in April 2022, we increased our operated capacity in order to best serve our customers. I would also like to highlight our car carrier business. As an example of ZIM mobility to identify profitable commercial opportunities since the beginning of the year, we grew the number of car carriage. We operate [2 10] as we take important steps to further capture growth in car cargo being exported out of Asia. On the operational side, we remain committed to our strategy of relying primarily on chartered capacity while maintaining a high level of flexibility.

由於這些變更於 2022 年 4 月生效，我們提高了運營能力，以便為客戶提供最好的服務。我還想強調我們的汽車承運商業務。自年初以來，作為以星移動識別有利可圖的商業機會的一個例子，我們增加了汽車運輸的數量。我們運營 [2 10]，因為我們採取重要措施進一步捕捉從亞洲出口的汽車貨物的增長。在運營方面，我們仍然致力於主要依靠特許運力同時保持高度靈活性的戰略。

This flexibility allows us to adapt our fleet size to changing market environment. Yet, we adapted our chartering strategy to reduce our exposure to the spot charter market due to shortage in capacity and rising daily rates. Instead, growth to charter newbuild vessels for our core operated capacity to improve our cost structure in the mid- and long-term. As you know, during 2023 and 2024, we expect a delivery of 46 newbuild vessels, of which 28 are LNG-powered vessels. This newbuild capacity strengthened our commercial proposition and improved our cost structure by securing fuel-efficient newbuild capacity.

這種靈活性使我們能夠根據不斷變化的市場環境調整我們的機隊規模。然而，由於運力短缺和每日費率上漲，我們調整了我們的租船策略以減少對現貨租船市場的敞口。相反，為我們的核心運營能力租用新造船，以改善我們的中長期成本結構。如您所知，在 2023 年和 2024 年期間，我們預計將交付 46 艘新造船，其中 28 艘是 LNG 動力船。這種新建能力加強了我們的商業主張，並通過確保節能的新建能力改善了我們的成本結構。

The LNG vessels also serve our own ESG goals. We estimate that approximately 1/3 of our capacity could be LNG-powered when we take delivery of these LNG vessels, and we will be the first planning to operate an LNG fleet from Asia to the U.S. East Coast trade. We are excited that ZIM will be more carbon and cost efficient than it is today while improving our competitive position and supporting our customers in meeting their own ESG objectives. We are pleased to continue to position ZIM at the forefront of carbon intensity reduction among global liners. In Slide 6, you can see that as part of our strategy, we continue to leverage the Israeli high-tech start-up ecosystem to identify attractive -- attractive new innovative companies as growth engines.

液化天然氣船也服務於我們自己的 ESG 目標。我們估計，當我們接收這些液化天然氣船時，我們大約 1/3 的產能可能是液化天然氣驅動的，我們將是第一個計劃運營從亞洲到美國東海岸貿易的液化天然氣船隊。我們很高興以星將比現在更具碳效率和成本效益，同時提高我們的競爭地位並支持我們的客戶實現他們自己的 ESG 目標。我們很高興能繼續將 ZIM 定位在全球班輪中降低碳強度的前沿。在幻燈片 6 中，您可以看到，作為我們戰略的一部分，我們將繼續利用以色列高科技創業生態系統來確定具有吸引力的新創新公司作為增長引擎。

Our focus in digital initiative, technologies relevant to our core shipping activities and the broader logistics sector, our objective is to identify this opportunity at an early stage, which requires modest investment to establish our position and serve a strategic partner, implementing the technologies internally and assist these companies in the growth. We have been very active on this front and have recently completed full investment. We did 2 follow-on investments in WAVE BL and Sodyo and first-time investment in Data Science Group and hoopo Systems.

我們專注於數字計劃、與我們的核心航運活動和更廣泛的物流部門相關的技術，我們的目標是在早期階段發現這個機會，這需要適度投資來確立我們的地位並為戰略合作夥伴服務，在內部實施這些技術並協助這些公司成長。我們在這方面一直非常活躍，最近完成了全部投資。我們對 WAVE BL 和 Sodyo 進行了 2 次後續投資，並對 Data Science Group 和 hoopo Systems 進行了首次投資。

Highlighting our most recent investment in hoopo, [indiscernible] provider of cutting-edge tracking solution for unpowered assets. The solution is extremely durable, cost-efficient and power-efficient creating a tracking device that can last up to 10 years without changing the power source. Our investment in hoopo will be used in part to develop a solution suitable for the containers. While all these companies are young, we believe they hold significant potential in the future.

突出我們最近對 hoopo 的投資，[音頻不清晰] 為無動力資產提供尖端跟踪解決方案的提供商。該解決方案極其耐用、經濟高效且節能，可創建一種無需更換電源即可持續使用長達 10 年的跟踪設備。我們對 hoopo 的投資將部分用於開發適合容器的解決方案。雖然所有這些公司都很年輕，但我們相信它們在未來擁有巨大的潛力。

Before turning the call over to Xavier, our CFO, I would like to briefly address the current market environment and outlook moving forward. As I mentioned, the shipping industry is dynamic. Over the past several weeks, we've seen a decline in freight rates, particularly in the trans-Pacific despite persistent port congestion and overall positive demand trends driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. We therefore recognize that trades may help peak. However, we know the current freight rates, which are of historic high, remain elevated and, therefore, very profitable.

在將電話轉給我們的首席財務官 Xavier 之前，我想簡要介紹一下當前的市場環境和未來的前景。正如我所提到的，航運業是充滿活力的。在過去的幾周里，儘管港口擁堵持續存在，並且宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定性推動了總體積極的需求趨勢，但我們看到運費有所下降，特別是在跨太平洋地區。因此，我們認識到交易可能有助於見頂。然而，我們知道目前處於歷史高位的運費仍然處於高位，因此非常有利可圖。

While we anticipate some decline in rates for the remainder of the year, we expect the normalization to be gradual and support and reaffirm 2022 guidance, which, as I mentioned, will enable us to post another year of record earnings. Furthermore, we expect the new 2023 IMO regulation and the agenda to the carbonized shipping to partially offset growth in supply and support freight rates in the mid to long-term. I will now turn the call over to Xavier for his remarks on our financial results and additional comments on the market, please?

雖然我們預計今年剩餘時間利率會有所下降，但我們預計正常化將是漸進的，並支持和重申 2022 年的指導，正如我所提到的，這將使我們能夠再創一年的創紀錄收益。此外，我們預計 2023 年 IMO 新法規和碳化航運議程將部分抵消供應增長並支持中長期運費。我現在將把電話轉給 Xavier，請他就我們的財務業績發表評論並對市場發表其他評論，好嗎？

Thank you, Eli. And again welcome, everyone. On Slide 7, we present key financial and operational highlights. Our strong second quarter record first half 2022 financial performance reflects the historically high freight rates, which were significantly higher this quarter compared to the prior year period, resilient demand as well and the value of our differentiated approach. Specifically, our average freight rates per TEU of $3,596 in the second quarter was 54% higher compared to the second quarter of 2021.

謝謝你，伊萊。再次歡迎大家。在幻燈片 7 中，我們展示了關鍵的財務和運營亮點。我們強勁的第二季度創紀錄的 2022 年上半年財務業績反映了本季度與去年同期相比顯著更高的歷史高位運費、彈性需求以及我們差異化方法的價值。具體來說，與 2021 年第二季度相比，我們第二季度每 TEU 的平均運費為 3,596 美元，比 2021 年第二季度高出 54%。

During the first 6 months of the year, our average freight rate was 73% higher than in the first half of 2021. Our commercial strategy and our competitive positioning enabled us to identify better paying cargo or more to TEU than [indiscernible]. Our carried quantities in Q2 were down 7% compared to the same period last year. Lower volumes this quarter resulted primarily from continued congestion exacerbated by more congestion in the U.S. East Coast ports, which we call on our trans-Pacific trade. Over the 6 months period, our current volume was down 1% compared to the 2% decline in market volumes in the first half of 2022. When we look at the full year, we still expect to grow our volume by 2% to 3% based on a higher operating capacity and assumed easing in port congestion going forward.

今年前 6 個月，我們的平均運費比 2021 年上半年高出 73%。我們的商業戰略和競爭定位使我們能夠找到比 [音頻不清晰] 支付更高或更高標準箱的貨物。我們在第二季度的賬面數量與去年同期相比下降了 7%。本季度的交易量下降主要是由於美國東海岸港口的擁堵加劇加劇了持續的擁堵，我們稱之為跨太平洋貿易。在 6 個月期間，與 2022 年上半年市場銷量下降 2% 相比，我們目前的銷量下降了 1%。縱觀全年，我們仍預計銷量將增長 2% 至 3%基於更高的運營能力並假設未來港口擁堵有所緩解。

Our free cash flow in the second quarter totaled $1.6 billion compared to $851 million in the comparable second quarter of 2021, an increase of 93%. Turning now to our balance sheet, total debt increased by $1.2 billion since prior year-end. The increase is -- and that is driven mainly by the increased number of vessel fixtures, long-term charter duration, as well as higher daily charter rates. In the first half of 2022, our cash position remained essentially flat even after having paid approximately $2.4 million in dividends. Maintaining flexibility in our fleet management strategy, so we can match our capacity with customer demand remains a core focus for us.

我們第二季度的自由現金流總額為 16 億美元，而 2021 年第二季度可比的為 8.51 億美元，增長了 93%。現在轉向我們的資產負債表，自去年年底以來，總債務增加了 12 億美元。這一增長主要是由於船舶固定裝置數量的增加、長期租船期限以及每日租船費率的提高。在 2022 年上半年，即使在支付了大約 240 萬美元的股息之後，我們的現金狀況也基本持平。在我們的車隊管理戰略中保持靈活性，以便我們能夠將我們的能力與客戶需求相匹配，這仍然是我們的核心關注點。

The average remaining duration of our current chartered capacity is 27.7 months, slightly down from the 28.6 months in May 2022 and bridging our current operated capacity with the scheduled delivery of our chartered newbuild vessels. Also only 9 of our chartered vessels are scheduled for renewal between now and the end of 2022. When we look in to 2023 and 2024, 28 and 34 vessels are up for renewals, respectively. In other words, we have a total of 62 vessels up for renewal compared to the expected delivery of 46 chartered newbuild vessels during this time period.

我們目前租用運力的平均剩餘期限為 27.7 個月，略低於 2022 年 5 月的 28.6 個月，並將我們目前的運營運力與我們的租用新建船舶的預定交付相銜接。此外，從現在到 2022 年底，我們只有 9 艘包租船舶計劃更新。展望 2023 年和 2024 年，分別有 28 艘和 34 艘船準備更新。換句話說，我們總共有 62 艘船需要更新，而在此期間預計交付 46 艘租用的新建船。

Next, moving on to Slide 8, you can see that our earnings have continued to grow. Our net leverage has trended downward and is at 0.1x as of June 30 this year. Moving on to the next slide, Slide 9, our differentiated and proactive approach continues to generate strong results. Revenue for the second quarter was $3.4 billion, up 44% compared to $2.4 billion in Q2 2021. Most importantly, we grew profitably with Q2 net profit of $1.3 billion, representing a 50% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.1 billion for the quarter, an improvement of 57%.

接下來，轉到幻燈片 8，您可以看到我們的收入持續增長。我們的淨槓桿率呈下降趨勢，截至今年 6 月 30 日為 0.1 倍。轉到下一張幻燈片，幻燈片 9，我們的差異化和積極主動的方法繼續產生強大的結果。第二季度收入為 34 億美元，與 2021 年第二季度的 24 億美元相比增長 44%。最重要的是，我們實現了盈利增長，第二季度淨利潤為 13 億美元，同比增長 50%。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 21 億美元，增長 57%。

Consistent with our focus on profitable growth, margins were 61% for adjusted EBITDA and 51% for adjusted EBIT. That is to be compared to 56% and 49%, respectively, in Q2 last year. Our 6 months 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin was 65% and adjusted EBIT margin was 56%. These profit margins are among the highest in the liner industry and do reflect our outperformance during the first half of 2022. Margin contraction in Q2 versus Q1 was driven by higher staff costs resulting from the transition of the slot indiscernible we have with the 2M, which was terminated on April 1 to our old operating capacity and also to higher indiscernible rates as well as lower average freight rate in Q2 versus Q1.

與我們對盈利增長的關註一致，調整後 EBITDA 的利潤率為 61%，調整後 EBIT 的利潤率為 51%。相比之下，去年第二季度分別為 56% 和 49%。我們 2022 年 6 個月調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 65%，調整後的 EBIT 利潤率為 56%。這些利潤率是班輪行業中最高的，並且確實反映了我們在 2022 年上半年的出色表現。第二季度與第一季度的利潤率收縮是由於我們與 2M 的插槽過渡導致員工成本增加所致，這於 4 月 1 日終止了我們的舊運營能力，並且第二季度與第一季度相比，第二季度的費率更高，平均運費更低。

Moving on to Slide 10, we carry 856,000 TEUs in the second quarter compared to 921,000 TEUs during the same period last year. Lower volume on the trans-Pacific caused by the third and congestion on the East Coast was partially offset by growth in intra-Asia volume, another trade we see as a key focus. The growth in intra-Asia was driven primarily by the new e-commerce services we opened from China to Australia and New Zealand in the second half of 2021. Moving to Slide 11, regarding our cash flow, we ended Q2 2022 with a total cash position of $3.9 billion, which includes cash and cash equivalents and also investments in bank deposit and other investment instruments.

繼續幻燈片 10，我們在第二季度運載 856,000 個標準箱，而去年同期為 921,000 個標準箱。第三次交易造成的跨太平洋交易量下降和東海岸的擁堵被亞洲內部交易量的增長部分抵消，這是我們認為的另一個重點貿易。亞洲內部的增長主要是由我們在 2021 年下半年從中國向澳大利亞和新西蘭開設的新電子商務服務推動的。轉到幻燈片 11，關於我們的現金流，我們在 2022 年第二季度結束時的總現金為39 億美元的頭寸，其中包括現金和現金等價物以及對銀行存款和其他投資工具的投資。

During the first half of 2022, our adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 million converted into $3.4 billion cash flow from operations. Other cash flow items in the period included $248 million of net CapEx and $627 million of debt service. I will also remind you that during the second quarter, we distributed dividends totaling approximately $2.4 billion. Moving to our guidance, we are reaffirming our full year guidance and are on track to deliver another year of record earnings. We expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between $7.8 billion and $8.2 billion and adjusted EBIT between $6.3 billion and $6.7 billion. Our assumptions with respect to our guidance remain largely unchanged, except for lowering our expectations on volume growth from 5% to now 2% to 3% for the full year.

在 2022 年上半年，我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 460 萬美元，轉化為 34 億美元的運營現金流。該期間的其他現金流項目包括 2.48 億美元的淨資本支出和 6.27 億美元的償債。我還要提醒您，在第二季度，我們分配的股息總額約為 24 億美元。轉向我們的指導，我們重申我們的全年指導，並有望再創紀錄的一年收益。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 78 億美元至 82 億美元之間，調整後的 EBIT 將在 63 億美元至 67 億美元之間。除了將我們對全年銷量增長的預期從 5% 下調至現在的 2% 至 3% 之外，我們對指引的假設基本保持不變。

Our guidance also includes the assumption that spot rate indiscernible and that the gradual normalization in rates will continue through the second half of the year. In other words, on average spot rates in Q3 are expected to be lower compared to indiscernible of Q2 and the same for Q4 versus Q3. Turning to our view of the business environment, Slide 13. A combination of very strong demand, tight supply and port congestion were the main underlying drivers of freight rates reaching equity debt level in 2021 and early in 2022. We addressed indiscernible . Firstly, port congestion and supply chain bottleneck remains a significant challenge, especially in the United States as vessels avoided the heavily congested West Coast port and divert to indiscernible East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, the queue outside those indiscernible grew.

我們的指引還包括假設即期匯率難以辨認，以及匯率的逐步正常化將持續到下半年。換句話說，第三季度的平均即期匯率預計將低於第二季度的不可分辨，第四季度與第三季度的平均即期匯率相同。轉向我們對商業環境的看法，幻燈片 13。非常強勁的需求、供應緊張和港口擁堵是運費在 2021 年和 2022 年初達到股本債務水平的主要潛在驅動因素。我們解決了音頻不清晰的問題。首先，港口擁堵和供應鏈瓶頸仍然是一個重大挑戰，特別是在美國，由於船隻避開了嚴重擁擠的西海岸港口，並轉移到難以辨認的東海岸和墨西哥灣沿岸港口，那些難以辨認的港口外的隊列增加了。

While there have been some correction in port operation evidenced by the improvement of majors such as Flexport's Ocean Timeliness Indicator, 90 days of trans-Pacific, it is still double the 45 days pre-COVID level. There is today still a little expectation that port congestion will materially improve in the near future despite this correction at the ports. Drewry continues to estimate that 7% of effective capacity will be tied down in 2023 due to port congestion.

儘管通過 Flexport 的海洋及時性指標、跨太平洋 90 天等主要指標的改善證明港口運營有所調整，但仍是疫情前 45 天水平的兩倍。儘管港口出現了這種調整，但今天仍有一點預期港口擁堵將在不久的將來得到實質性改善。德魯裡繼續估計，由於港口擁堵，到 2023 年將有 7% 的有效運力受限。

Also given that port congestion is to a certain degree the outcome of landside bottlenecks, in other words, the efficiency in moving containers in and out of the port, some level of port congestion may become a lasting fixture in our industry. This would result in the reduction of the effective capacity on the water. In the United States and elsewhere, there are signs that certain headwinds such as increased inflation and higher energy prices have resulted in softening of demand. Yet overall demand trend globally and possibly in the United States remain indiscernible . 2022 volumes are higher than pre-pandemic, i.e., 2019 levels.

此外，鑑於港口擁堵在一定程度上是陸側瓶頸的結果，換句話說，集裝箱進出港口的效率，某種程度的港口擁堵可能會成為我們行業的長期固定因素。這將導致對水的有效容量降低。在美國和其他地方，有跡象表明通貨膨脹加劇和能源價格上漲等某些不利因素導致需求疲軟。然而，全球以及可能在美國的總體需求趨勢仍然難以察覺。 2022 年的數量高於大流行前，即 2019 年的水平。

In fact, for the first 6 months of 2022, volume was up 5.4% when compared to the same period in 2019. Going forward, the current inventory to sales ratio also supports this year. While it is up from lows of approximately 1.2% retail inventory to sales ratio is still below historical pre-COVID level of around 1.5%. In light of persistent congestion and landside bottlenecks, we believe that retailers cannot and will not maintain lower inventory to sales ratio compared to pre-COVID. Moving to Slide 15, starting in 2023, the outlook for the supply demand balance will also change with additional supply expected to be delivered and supply growth is anticipated to outpace growth in demand after a long period of tight supply.

事實上，2022 年前 6 個月的銷量與 2019 年同期相比增長了 5.4%。展望未來，目前的存銷比也支持了今年。雖然它從大約 1.2% 的零售庫存與銷售比率的低點上升，但仍低於 COVID 之前 1.5% 左右的歷史水平。鑑於持續的擁堵和陸側瓶頸，我們認為零售商不能也不會保持與 COVID 之前相比較低的庫存與銷售比率。轉到幻燈片 15，從 2023 年開始，供需平衡的前景也將發生變化，預計將提供額外的供應，並且在長期供應緊張之後，供應增長預計將超過需求增長。

Yet, we believe that both short and long-term net effective supply growth may be smaller than is implied by the current order book. In 2023, port congestion will partially offset the expected 9% in supply growth as well as possible slow steaming resulting from IMO 2023 regulation are expected to go into effective January 2023. The growth in supply also grew above scrapping, which was essentially 0 in the past couple of years. Longer term, we have indicated that the increase in order book is at least partially a response to the anticipated pressure to de-carbonized shipping and reuse aging fleet.

然而，我們認為短期和長期的淨有效供應增長可能小於當前訂單所暗示的。到 2023 年，港口擁堵將部分抵消預計 9% 的供應增長，以及 IMO 2023 規定可能導致的緩慢航行，預計將於 2023 年 1 月生效。供應增長也高於報廢，後者在 2023 年基本為 0過去幾年。從長遠來看，我們已經表示，訂單的增加至少部分是對脫碳航運和再利用老化船隊的預期壓力的回應。

As such, the motivation to scrap older less efficient vessels may grow resulting in lower growth in actual capacity that is currently implied by the order book. To summarize, these factors support our positive outlook on our business environment. And I also note that the recent consolidation in the industry and [operationalizing] also further support improved efficiencies in our industry.

因此，報廢效率較低的舊船的動機可能會增加，從而導致訂單簿目前暗示的實際運力增長放緩。總而言之，這些因素支持我們對商業環境的積極展望。我還注意到，最近行業的整合和 [運營] 也進一步支持了我們行業效率的提高。

And with that, I will turn the call back for Eli -- to Eli, sorry, for his concluding remarks.

有了這個，我會轉回給 Eli 的電話——對不起，Eli 的結束語。

Thank you, Xavier. Thank you. I'm incredibly proud of our team and ZIM ability to execute at the highest level and deliver on our commitment to profitable growth reflected in our second quarter and first half of 2022 performance. We generated our best ever first half year results and are set to deliver another record year based on the guidance, which we reaffirmed today. We believe this core strategy and key strengths will continue to serve us well as freight rates are expected to continue to gradually normalize from peak levels.

謝謝你，澤維爾。謝謝你。我為我們的團隊和以星能夠以最高水平執行並兌現我們對盈利增長的承諾感到無比自豪，這反映在我們第二季度和 2022 年上半年的業績中。我們創造了有史以來最好的上半年業績，並且將根據我們今天重申的指導再創紀錄。我們相信這一核心戰略和關鍵優勢將繼續為我們服務，預計運費將繼續從峰值水平逐漸正常化。

We have taken proactive steps to improve ZIM commercial proposition and competitive position, both commercially and operationally. We anticipate the changing nature of the charter market and adapted our fleet strategy to secure our core fleet and reduce our dependence on the spot charter market. We entered into multiple mid- and long-term charter agreements to secure cost and fuel efficient newbuild capacity. To remind you, our first charter agreement for 10, 15,000 TEU vessels, which will be the largest vessel in our fleet was signed over 18 months ago.

我們已採取積極措施來改善以星的商業主張和競爭地位，無論是在商業上還是在運營上。我們預計包機市場的性質會發生變化，並調整我們的船隊戰略以確保我們的核心船隊並減少我們對現貨包機市場的依賴。我們簽訂了多項中長期包機協議，以確保成本和燃油效率高的新建能力。提醒您，我們在 18 個月前簽署了第一份 10 艘 15,000 標準箱船舶的租船協議，這將是我們船隊中最大的船舶。

Going forward, we remain highly confident that our global-niche strategy and cost structure, strengthening of commercial prospects and investing in innovation and disruptive technologies positioned ZIM to be a top performer in our industry and deliver long-term shareholder value.

展望未來，我們仍然高度相信我們的全球利基戰略和成本結構、商業前景的加強以及對創新和顛覆性技術的投資使以星成為我們行業中的佼佼者並為股東創造長期價值。

Francy, we'll take questions now. Thank you.

弗蘭西，我們現在來回答問題。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Sathish Sivakumar from Citigroup.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Sathish Sivakumar。

I've got 3 questions here. So firstly, on the dividend payout ratio, right, the change in from 20% to 30%, what has actually like triggered this quarterly dividend payout ratio change given that going into H2 and then the next year, there's uncertainty around demand and also the rate as the rate starts to normalize. So could you actually explain the thought process why [indiscernible] ratio?

我這裡有 3 個問題。因此，首先，關於派息率，從 20% 到 30% 的變化，實際上是什麼觸發了這個季度派息率的變化，因為進入下半年，然後是明年，需求和未來都存在不確定性率開始正常化。那麼你能解釋一下為什麼[音頻不清晰] 比率的思考過程嗎？

And then secondly, on the vessel utilization, on the ships, can you give a context like that the vessel utilizations are today and this is what it used to be at the start of the year, especially out of Asia to trans-Pacific. And then the third one that's around the spot surcharges. Obviously, last year, there was a big cushion of at least there's this second increase in volumes that were on spot premium surcharges. Have you actually add any spot premium volumes in Q2? And how does it actually look as we go into Q3 in terms of that part of the market. Those are my 3 questions.

其次，關於船舶利用率，關於船舶，你能否給出一個背景，比如今天的船舶利用率，這是今年年初的情況，尤其是從亞洲到跨太平洋。然後是現場附加費附近的第三個。顯然，去年，至少有第二次增加即期保費附加費的交易量有很大的緩衝。您實際上是否在第二季度增加了任何現貨溢價交易量？就這部分市場而言，當我們進入第三季度時，它的實際情況如何。這是我的3個問題。

Sathish, if I may, I will address your questions. The first one with respect to the dividend quarterly payout increase from 20% to 30%, you may remember that we, from the outset said that we intended to return significant capital to shareholders. And we have on already a couple of occasions tweak or change or updated our dividend policy. We started between 0% to 50% dividend payout once a year. Then we acknowledge that this was a bit too vague, and we wanted to clarify also for our investors our view on our market and our ability to continue to distribute dividends.

Sathish，如果可以的話，我會回答你的問題。第一個關於季度派息從 20% 提高到 30% 的問題，你可能還記得，我們從一開始就說過，我們打算將大量資本返還給股東。我們已經多次調整或更改或更新我們的股息政策。我們開始每年一次派發 0% 到 50% 的股息。然後我們承認這有點太模糊了，我們還想向我們的投資者澄清我們對市場的看法以及我們繼續分配股息的能力。

So we switched from yearly to a quarterly, and we took the conservative view initially to only distribute 20% even though on a quarterly basis, even though we recommitted our intention to distribute between to 30% to 50% of our full year net earnings. So that meant at the end of the day that we would always end up or very likely always end up with a significant higher dividend payment once a year when we release our full year financials, if it is just only because we would catch up from 20% to 30%. As we feel confident in our ability to continue to generate quarter-after-quarter ongoing profit, then we serve there is no real reason to hold back for the first 3 quarters and to catch up to get to at least a 30% once a year.

所以我們從每年轉為每季度，我們最初採取保守的觀點，即使每季度只分配 20%，即使我們再次承諾分配我們全年淨收益的 30% 到 50%。因此，這意味著在一天結束時，當我們發布全年財務數據時，我們總是會或很可能總是以每年一次的顯著更高的股息支付而告終，如果僅僅是因為我們將從 20 年趕上% 到 30%。由於我們對繼續產生逐季持續利潤的能力充滿信心，因此我們沒有真正的理由在前 3 個季度退縮並趕上每年至少達到 30% 的水平.

Hence, why we've made that change today. Second, looking at taking your second question in terms of vessel utilization, up until today, most of our vessels, if not all, our vessels when we are focusing on the trans-Pacific trade lanes are sailing full. We did mention that despite the fact that this does not necessarily -- has not necessarily translated in terms of volume with the overall volume in terms of TEU that we initially expected due to congestion, but this is a congestion effect that the schedule is taking longer than anticipated, not utilization effect.

因此，為什麼我們今天做出了這種改變。第二，從船舶利用率的角度來看你的第二個問題，直到今天，我們的大多數船舶，如果不是全部，當我們專注於跨太平洋貿易航線時，我們的船舶都在滿載航行。我們確實提到，儘管事實上這並不一定 - 不一定會根據我們最初預期的 TEU 來轉換為總量，但這是一種擁堵效應，時間表需要更長的時間超出預期，沒有利用效果。

So our vessels have been sailing full up until today. And for the remainder of the year, we are also assuming that the utilization will continue to be extremely strong. And this is why we think that we'll be able to catch up on our volume assumptions on a full year basis because utilization will remain strong, and we will also assume some sort of easing in the current congestion or the bottleneck at the terminal at the receiving end. And the third, the way I think about our ability to add surcharges to our income, which has been a significant feature towards the end of 2021 and also to some extent during the first quarter of 2022.

所以我們的船隻一直滿載航行到今天。在今年剩下的時間裡，我們還假設利用率將繼續非常強勁。這就是為什麼我們認為我們將能夠在全年基礎上趕上我們的數量假設，因為利用率將保持強勁，我們還將假設當前的擁堵或碼頭的瓶頸有所緩解接收端。第三，我對我們增加收入附加費能力的看法，這是 2021 年底的一個重要特徵，在某種程度上也是 2022 年第一季度的一個重要特徵。

So this has failed clearly over the quarter, and we are not assuming that we will generate significant additional surcharge going forward. We take the view when we talked about our guidance for 2022 on average that the rate normalization will continue albeit at a pace which is gradual, which has always been, by the way, our assumptions when it comes to the normalization agenda.

因此，這在本季度顯然失敗了，我們並不假設我們會在未來產生大量額外的附加費。當我們談到我們對 2022 年的平均指引時，我們認為利率正常化將繼續，儘管速度是漸進的，順便說一下，這一直是我們對正常化議程的假設。

I've got a couple of follow-ups, if I may. On the dividend, basically, right, why not share buyback, and that actually gives you flexibility, right, as you go into a potential downturn. Have you considered share buyback in the future?

如果可以的話，我有幾個後續行動。關於股息，基本上，是的，為什麼不進行股票回購，這實際上給了你靈活性，對，當你進入潛在的低迷時期時。您是否考慮過未來的股票回購？

And then the second one, actually, on the volume normalization into -- for the full year. So if you look at your H1 this year versus last year, you've basically [indiscernible] proportion of volumes towards intra-Asia. So do you expect that trend to continue and that's what would your volume recovery come through to H2?

然後是第二個，實際上是全年的銷量正常化。因此，如果你看一下今年上半年與去年的對比，你基本上 [音頻不清晰] 的交易量比例是亞洲內部的。那麼您是否預計這種趨勢會持續下去，這就是您的銷量恢復到下半年的情況？

So let me start with the second question that you raised. We -- yes, on the intra-Asia trade, we continue to be very active. We talked about lines that we recently opened between Southeast Asia also to Australia and New Zealand. And so we see a lot of growth -- opportunity growth on the intra-Asia trade lane and we are well-positioned to capture the volume growth in this region. Going to your first question, why not share buyback and why dividend, we have up until today promoted returning significant dividend to our shareholders and it's good that we have and if we look at our 12 months into being a traded company, we've returned $21.5 per share to our shareholders, $2.4 billion in terms of dividend.

那麼讓我從你提出的第二個問題開始。我們——是的，在亞洲內部貿易方面，我們繼續非常活躍。我們談到了我們最近在東南亞和澳大利亞和新西蘭之間開通的航線。因此，我們看到了很多增長——亞洲內部貿易通道的機會增長，我們有能力抓住該地區的銷量增長。關於您的第一個問題，為什麼不進行股票回購以及為什麼要派息，直到今天我們一直在推動向股東返還大量股息，這很好，如果我們回顧一下我們成為一家上市公司的 12 個月，我們已經回歸我們的股東每股 21.5 美元，股息為 24 億美元。

We -- when we guide for 2022, the numbers that we are guiding suggests that they will still be more dividend to come in the future. So up until today, we have promoted returning capital to shareholders via dividend. And we continue again by updating our dividend policy in terms of interim payout that we just talked about from 20% to 30%. So that's always a commitment that we made to the shareholders on day 1, and we are delivering on that front. That doesn't mean that the share buyback is completely out of the table and until today, we haven't entertained such initiative. But the Board and management will continue to always evaluate quarter after quarter what is the best avenue, the best way for us to continue to maximize shareholder value and share buyback is clearly one way to return capital to shareholders on top of the dividend.

我們——當我們指導 2022 年時，我們指導的數字表明它們在未來仍將是更多的紅利。所以直到今天，我們一直在推動通過股息向股東返還資本。我們再次繼續更新我們剛剛談到的中期派息的股息政策，從 20% 提高到 30%。因此，這始終是我們在第一天向股東做出的承諾，我們正在這方面兌現。這並不意味著股票回購完全不在討論範圍內，直到今天，我們還沒有接受過這樣的主動權。但董事會和管理層將繼續一個季度又一個季度地評估什麼是最好的途徑，我們繼續最大化股東價值和股票回購的最佳方式顯然是在股息之上向股東返還資本的一種方式。

That's quite helpful.

這很有幫助。

The next question is from Omar Nokta from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Omar Nokta。

Eli and Xavier, thanks for the update. Obviously, a very nice solid quarter and good to see the guidance reaffirmed, especially given spot freight rates have been coming off here the past several weeks. Having said that, some of your peers had actually been raising guidance this past -- or the past couple of weeks, this earnings season, which I think kind of set up expectations that we could see the same from ZIM. Is there anything that you could highlight that maybe separate you from the others in this respect? Is it higher relative spot exposure on the trans-Pacific or is it maybe a function of being too conservative?

Eli 和 Xavier，感謝您的更新。顯然，這是一個非常不錯的穩健季度，很高興看到該指引得到重申，特別是考慮到過去幾週現貨運費一直在下跌。話雖如此，您的一些同行實際上在過去 - 或者過去幾週，這個財報季，一直在提高指導，我認為這有點設定了我們可以從以星看到同樣情況的預期。在這方面，您有什麼可以強調的，可能會使您與其他人區分開來嗎？是跨太平洋地區的相對現貨風險較高，還是因為過於保守？

I would like to begin. Xavier, you will comment. First is question to manage expectations. We began the year in very high expectations from 2022, and we share it with our analysts and investors. Looking on our EBITDA margin, EBIT margin the first 6 months, ZIM is doing and consider, let's say, one of the leaders compared to those [indiscernible] published a result. For sure, those on the Western side of the world, not by 1% or 2%. So in Q1, although it was very short time after the first guidance for the year, we increased our expectation for the year.

我想開始。澤維爾，你會評論的。首先是管理期望的問題。從 2022 年開始，我們以非常高的期望開始了這一年，並與我們的分析師和投資者分享了這一點。看看我們的 EBITDA 利潤率，前 6 個月的 EBIT 利潤率，ZIM 正在做並考慮，比方說，與那些 [音頻不清晰] 公佈的結果相比，領先者之一。當然，那些在世界西部的人，不是 1% 或 2%。所以在第一季度，雖然距離今年的第一個指導很短的時間，但我們提高了對今年的預期。

And we set targets that 2022 will be a better year, speaking of EBITDA and EBIT bottom line compared to '21 was the best year ever for ZIM. We believe that our responsibility is to be conservative as we seek gradual normalization of the rates, mainly in the trans-Pacific on the freight rates. So we would like to reaffirm our guidance for the year in the same -- this is real target for ZIM to deliver best result. Compared to the company that you spoke about, they have decided to begin the year with low expectation, mainly for the second half of the year, and they improved the guidance from the beginning low guidance. Xavier?

我們設定的目標是 2022 年將是更好的一年，談到 EBITDA 和 EBIT 底線，與 21 年相比，21 年是 ZIM 有史以來最好的一年。我們認為我們的責任是在我們尋求費率逐步正常化時保持保守，主要是在跨太平洋的運費率上。因此，我們想在同一年重申我們對這一年的指導——這是以星實現最佳結果的真正目標。和你說的那家公司相比，他們決定年初低預期，主要是下半年，他們從一開始的低指導改進了指導。澤維爾？

No, I think we need to look at things, Omar, in absolute terms when you look at things in absolute term, related to our size, we are a smaller company than some of the larger [indiscernible] players. Those are the ones you are referring to. Our operating capacity is less than 500,000 TEU to be compared to the other ones. And if you were to do a comparison in terms of EBIT per TEU that is being operated, you may come to a very different conclusion with respect to the relative performance of a liner versus another one.

不，我認為我們需要從絕對角度看待事物，奧馬爾，當你從絕對角度看待事物時，與我們的規模相關，我們是一家比一些較大的 [音頻不清晰] 參與者小的公司。這些就是你所指的那些。與其他公司相比，我們的運營能力不到 500,000 標準箱。如果您要比較正在運營的每 TEU 的息稅前利潤，您可能會得出關於班輪與另一班輪的相對性能的非常不同的結論。

That's helpful, and I appreciate those comments. And I guess maybe just about volumes, you've mentioned, I think, Eli, that you've taken the fleet up to 149 vessels. Volumes have been flattish here the past 3 or 4 quarters. How should we think about volumes going forward? You were thinking 5% growth before. Now it's maybe 2% to 3%. So far in the third quarter, are you seeing higher volumes that give you maybe some confidence that we are going to see a bounce here in volumes? Or is it still more of an expectation as we proceed to the rest of the year?

這很有幫助，我很欣賞這些評論。而且我想也許只是數量，我想，你提到過，伊萊，你已經把船隊帶到了 149 艘船。過去 3 或 4 個季度，這裡的交易量一直持平。我們應該如何看待未來的交易量？你之前在想 5% 的增長。現在可能是 2% 到 3%。到目前為止，在第三季度，您是否看到更高的交易量，這讓您對我們將看到交易量反彈充滿信心？或者，隨著我們進入今年餘下的時間，這仍然是一種期望？

No, no. We clearly expect to deliver on increased the volume of carried quantity into Q3. For many reasons, again, it is not that the vessels have been not selling full over the past quarter. It's been more that there's been there -- those issues in terms of congestion. And we think we'll need to go hand in hand, if we assume that the rate -- the freight rates will continue to normalize, it is -- it has to go with the -- also from a landside perspective aspect of things, that congestion should start to ease significantly because if that doesn't happen, then the scenario or the underlying assumption that freight rate will normalize might be challenged.

不，不。我們顯然希望在第三季度實現增加的運輸量。再一次，出於多種原因，並不是這些船隻在過去一個季度沒有賣得滿滿的。更多的是那裡 - 那些關於擁堵的問題。我們認為我們需要齊頭並進，如果我們假設運費 - 運費將繼續正常化，它 - 它必須與 - 也從陸地方面的角度來看，這種擁堵應該開始顯著緩解，因為如果這種情況沒有發生，那麼運費將正常化的情景或基本假設可能會受到挑戰。

So if we are taking the conservative view or the reasonable view on the freight rate level, then we also need to assume that we will be less penalized in terms of tariff quantity by the congestion. So that's one. Second is also when we look at the capacity that we are operating, we are also taking delivery of more vessels in the third and fourth quarter. We are going to be taking delivery of a large capacity vessel as well that are going to be entering into Asia, U.S. East Coast, ahead of our big transition next year, which is around the corner, where we will start getting the first 15,000 TEU LNG vessels that will be delivered to us in February.

因此，如果我們對運價水平採取保守或合理的看法，那麼我們還需要假設我們在運價數量方面因擁堵而受到的懲罰較少。所以這是一個。其次，當我們查看我們的運營能力時，我們也在第三季度和第四季度接收更多船隻。我們還將接收一艘將進入亞洲、美國東海岸的大容量船舶，在明年我們即將迎來重大過渡之前，我們將開始獲得第一批 15,000 TEU將於二月交付給我們的液化天然氣船。

So that's really a combination of us operating more capacity, if you will. And second, assuming that the congestion will ease and will improve, therefore, allowing us to move more and more cargo and therefore, increase our tariff quantities.

因此，如果您願意的話，這實際上是我們運營更多產能的結合。其次，假設擁堵將緩解並改善，因此允許我們運送越來越多的貨物，從而增加我們的關稅數量。

Got it. And just final one on the new buildings, the 46 that are coming on starting next year that are going to be vastly much more fuel efficient. In terms of your existing footprint, how do you see these newbuildings joining dozen fleet. Theoretically, you have 149. Is it simply 46 come out of the existing chartering fleet and you bring in these new 46, so your overall fleet size stays the same? Or do you expect to add some of these a bit more permanently?

知道了。新建築的最後一個，明年開始建造的 46 座將大大提高燃油效率。就您現有的足跡而言，您如何看待這些新造船加入十幾個船隊。從理論上講，您有 149 艘。僅僅是現有租船隊中的 46 艘，而您引入了這 46 艘新船，那麼您的整體船隊規模保持不變？還是您希望更永久地添加其中一些？

And I guess that's sort of -- that's like the one question. The other one I have is on that, have you done sort of an analysis? Or are you willing to give maybe what these newbuildings will look like on a ship-by-ship basis? So if we were to replace ships on a one-to-one basis in terms of TEU cost, are you able to get how much they would reduce your unit cost by? I know that was a bit of a jumble question, but simply what does your cost go down by if you were to assume all 46 newbuildings come in and replace 46 existing ships that are currently in the fleet?

我想這有點像 - 這就像一個問題。我的另一個是關於那個，你做過分析嗎？或者您是否願意逐船提供這些新造船的外觀？因此，如果我們在 TEU 成本方面一對一地更換船舶，您是否能夠獲得它們會降低您的單位成本的多少？我知道這是一個有點混亂的問題，但如果你假設所有 46 艘新船都進來並替換目前在艦隊中的 46 艘現有船隻，你的成本會下降多少？

The answer is not that simple because starting with the beginning of your question, we are not planning on replacing ship-by-ship. So we have, indeed, those 46 newbuildings that are coming our way for which we are committed to, and we are eagerly awaiting this capacity. And if we look at the vessels that out of the 140 container vessels that we operate today, we have 62 vessels that we cover for renewal over the same period. And we will decide whether we want to let those some or all of that capacity, depending on our reading of the market and whether we see options for us to grow or enter it into new trade lane.

答案並不那麼簡單，因為從您的問題開始，我們不打算逐船更換。因此，我們確實擁有 46 座新造船，我們致力於建造這些新造船，我們正在熱切地等待這種能力。如果我們看看我們今天運營的 140 艘集裝箱船中的船舶，我們有 62 艘船在同一時期進行了更新。我們將根據我們對市場的解讀以及我們是否看到增長或進入新貿易通道的選擇來決定是否要讓這些產能中的一部分或全部。

So the determination will be made as we go. And as we are today, I'm sure you would assume that we are preparing for 2023. We are in the budget season as far as in those, so we are already looking into 2023, what is the fleet plan, what are the trade lanes that we intend to continue to grow in exit, enter. So this is very much in the process as we currently speak. So it's not going to be one-for-one. And to give you an example, the first series of 15,000 TEU vessels, so the 10, 15,000 TEU vessel will clearly be deployed on our Asia, U.S. East Coast trade, the [indiscernible] all of them, and they will replace vessels that are currently of a capacity of between 9,000 to 10,000 TEUs.

因此，我們將在進行過程中做出決定。就像我們今天一樣，我相信你會假設我們正在為 2023 年做準備。就那些年而言，我們正處於預算季節，所以我們已經在研究 2023 年，船隊計劃是什麼，貿易是什麼我們打算在出口繼續增長的車道，進入。因此，正如我們目前所說，這在很大程度上正在進行中。所以它不會是一對一的。舉個例子，第一批 15,000 TEU 的船隻，那麼這 10、15,000 TEU 的船隻顯然會部署在我們的亞洲、美國東海岸貿易，[音頻不清晰] 所有這些船隻，它們將取代那些目前的容量在 9,000 到 10,000 個標準箱之間。

What we do with this capacity of 9,000 to 10,000 TEUs? We might trade some of that capacity into other trades, be it on the P&W, for example, or on a second stream on Asia to the Gulf or to the U.S. East Coast. We are looking into that. This is also a discussion that may take place with our partner. As we know, we jointly operate with Maersk and MSC, our trans-Pacific trade base. So there is a lot of potential scenario that may unfold, which will lead to a different conclusion when it comes to our fleet plan going forward.

我們如何處理 9,000 到 10,000 個標準箱的容量？我們可能會將其中的部分產能交易到其他交易中，例如在 P&W 上，或者在亞洲到海灣或美國東海岸的第二條河流上。我們正在對此進行調查。這也是可能與我們的合作夥伴進行的討論。眾所周知，我們與馬士基和我們的跨太平洋貿易基地 MSC 共同運營。因此，可能會出現很多潛在的情況，這將導致我們未來的機隊計劃得出不同的結論。

What we wanted to make sure is that we have the option to grow, not the obligation to grow. And that's very important in terms of fleet planning. The fact that as we committed to those policies newbuilding, that we have the ability to redeliver a significant portion of our current capacity going forward.

我們想要確保的是，我們有成長的選擇，而不是成長的義務。這在車隊規劃方面非常重要。事實上，當我們致力於這些新政策時，我們有能力在未來重新提供我們當前能力的很大一部分。

That optionality is key. I'll leave it there.

這種選擇性是關鍵。我會把它留在那裡。

The next question is from Sam Bland from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sam Bland。

I have 2, please. The first one is, could you talk about, I think, the change in the 2M relationship started at the beginning of April. Could you talk about to what extent that increased your unit cost quarter-on-quarter, please? And the second question is I think you talked about in the opening remarks that maybe in the last few weeks, spot rates have been coming down quite sharply. I can't view, if anything, congestion seems to be possibly getting worse on a global basis. And I don't think demand is falling that quickly. I guess I'm interested in why you think spot rates are coming down so sharply given those 2 factors?

我有2個，請。第一個是，你能談談，我認為，2M 關係的變化始於 4 月初。請您談談您的單位成本環比增加到什麼程度？第二個問題是我認為你在開場白中談到，也許在過去幾週，即期匯率已經大幅下跌。我無法看到，如果有的話，擁堵似乎在全球範圍內可能會變得更糟。而且我不認為需求下降得那麼快。我想我很感興趣，為什麼您認為鑑於這兩個因素，即期匯率會急劇下降？

Thank you, Sam. The first question with regards to the change in the relationship of the corporation, the partnership with the 2M, you're correct that we entered into this new network on -- or the changes were effective as of the 1st, April this year. So in the first quarter, we were a net slot buyer from our partners who were jointly operating their capacity. But at the end of the day, we were also, in addition, buying slot from our partners, Maersk and MSC on the trans-Pacific trade lane and on the Asia [indiscernible].

謝謝你，山姆。關於公司關係變化的第一個問題，與 2M 的合作關係，你說得對，我們進入這個新網絡是正確的——或者這些變化自今年 4 月 1 日起生效。因此，在第一季度，我們是合作夥伴的淨老虎機買家，他們共同運營他們的產能。但歸根結底，我們還從我們的合作夥伴馬士基和 MSC 那裡購買了跨太平洋貿易航線和亞洲 [音頻不清晰] 的艙位。

As from the 1st of April this year, we shifted completely to a full slot agreement, meaning that we are no longer buying any slots from Maersk and MSC and we are purely exchanging capacity on the vessels that we jointly operate on the trade that we continue to operate, which are mainly the Asia, U.S. East Coast and the Asia to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

從今年 4 月 1 日起，我們完全轉向了全艙位協議，這意味著我們不再從馬士基和 MSC 購買任何艙位，我們只是在我們繼續進行的貿易中共同運營的船舶上交換運力主要是亞洲、美國東海岸和亞洲至美國墨西哥灣沿岸。

So as a result, what happened, we -- as you've seen that we anticipated that change in the collaboration in terms of the structure of the collaboration. So we have to begin additional capacity in order to continue to be able to operate a similar tonnage at the end of the day. So that's what I've explained to some extent, the increase in vessels that we are operating today versus what we are operating a few quarters back. And in terms of -- and -- so we saw those vessels from the indiscernible market at rate that obviously where the prevailing rates that tonnage providers were commending and that's where it's quite a different from the slot rate that we were purchasing from our partners.

因此，發生了什麼，我們——正如你們所看到的，我們預計合作會在合作結構方面發生變化。因此，我們必須開始增加產能，以便在一天結束時繼續能夠運營類似的噸位。所以這就是我在某種程度上解釋過的，我們今天運營的船隻與幾個季度前運營的船隻相比有所增加。就 - 和 - 所以我們看到那些來自難以辨認的市場的船隻的價格顯然是噸位供應商所讚揚的現行價格，這與我們從合作夥伴那裡購買的槽率有很大不同。

So in terms of indiscernible that we need to quantify but it's an [original sale] of a $100 million. Second on the -- on your question with respect to the rate dynamic and why you need that we are assuming that the normalization of the rate of the spot market might continue to slide with the already experience already throughout the second quarter. How is that possible if indeed the congestion continue to be there or to worsen? You're right. This is -- there's a lot uncertainty ahead of us and it might ended in a different scenario.

因此，就我們需要量化的音頻而言，這是一個 1 億美元的 [原始銷售]。其次，關於你關於利率動態的問題以及為什麼你需要我們假設現貨市場利率的正常化可能會繼續下滑，因為整個第二季度已經有經驗。如果擁堵確實繼續存在或惡化，這怎麼可能？你是對的。這是 - 我們面前有很多不確定性，它可能會以不同的情況結束。

What we are just hearsaying is that it is -- we think it needs to go hand-in-hand if we assume continued normalization in the freight rate. Then at some point, congestion should ease. Otherwise, we would be in a situation which would be quite awkward where there would be no real reason to justify the rate adjustment. So that's why we are making that assumption. If we were to be wrong in the assumptions with respect to the easing in the congestion, it is very possible as the demand is still strong. It's not as strong as it used to be. Let's be clear. There are signs of weakening in demand as well and that maybe weighed significantly in the explanation of why the rates are starting to normalize. But the demand is still there compared to pre-pandemic level, we are still very resilient.

我們只是在傳聞，如果我們假設運費繼續正常化，我們認為它需要齊頭並進。然後在某個時候，擁堵應該會緩解。否則，我們將處於非常尷尬的境地，沒有真正理由證明利率調整是合理的。所以這就是我們做出這個假設的原因。如果我們對緩解擁堵的假設是錯誤的，那很有可能，因為需求仍然很強勁。它不像以前那麼強大了。讓我們清楚一點。也有需求減弱的跡象，這可能在解釋利率開始正常化的原因時產生了重大影響。但是與大流行前的水平相比，需求仍然存在，我們仍然非常有彈性。

Remembering that last year was extremely strong. So when we compare year-over-year, yes, there might be signs of weakness but it's still a strong market. So that's an assumption we are making. We're thinking it's a reasonable one. There might be other scenarios at the end of the day, we'll see which is which.

記得去年是非常強烈的。因此，當我們進行同比比較時，是的，可能有疲軟的跡象，但它仍然是一個強勁的市場。所以這是我們正在做的一個假設。我們認為這是合理的。一天結束時可能還有其他情況，我們會看看哪個是哪個。

The next question is from Alexia Dogani from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Alexia Dogani。

I also have 3. Just firstly, on kind of recessionary scenario. Can you just kind of explain to us what kind of flexibility you have to adjust the network? And should you need to, I guess, kind of the reference of the number of vessels expiring would be helpful. Then secondly, am I correct in picking up that Eli, in his comments mentioned that you are reducing your spot exposure and you're entering in more contract agreements. If that's right, can you give us a rough indication of how spot versus contract is evolving?

我也有 3 個。首先，關於經濟衰退的情景。您能否向我們解釋一下調整網絡需要什麼樣的靈活性？如果你需要，我猜，關於即將到期的船隻數量的參考會有所幫助。其次，我是否正確地接受了 Eli，在他的評論中提到你正在減少你的現貨曝光並且你正在簽訂更多的合同協議。如果這是正確的，您能否大致說明現貨與合約的演變？

And then finally, in terms of the alliances and kind of the pros or cons of joining an alliance, have you -- is that a possibility or what do you think?

最後，關於聯盟以及加入聯盟的利弊，你有沒有——這是一種可能性還是你怎麼看？

The -- with respect to your first question, what are the tools or what could we do in case of a prolonged recession beyond, I guess, your question is that even beyond the 2022 and 2023 and then maybe '24. The flexibility for us is key and critical, and we have 28 vessels that they will cover for renewal in 2023. So if we were to end up in a situation where the global economy is entering into a prolonged recession and as a consequence, in demand on the trade where we operate was to significantly drop, then we would obviously not renew those charters.

- 關於你的第一個問題，我想，如果長期經濟衰退之後，我們可以做些什麼工具或者我們可以做些什麼，我想，你的問題是，即使在 2022 年和 2023 年甚至可能是 24 年之後。靈活性對我們來說至關重要，我們有 28 艘船將在 2023 年進行更新換代。因此，如果我們最終陷入全球經濟陷入長期衰退並因此需求旺盛的情況如果我們經營的貿易大幅下降，那麼我們顯然不會更新這些章程。

We also have in 2024, another 34 vessels that will come up for renewal. What is very important because then you might say, but yes, but you have the 46 vessels that are coming in over the same period. What is very important, I think, for us to emphasize is that those vessels, yes, they are green and they are brand new. But as a result, they meet our ESG strategy and commercial positioning. That's one.

到 2024 年，我們還有另外 34 艘船將進行更新。什麼是非常重要的，因為那時你可能會說，但是是的，但是你有 46 艘船在同一時期進來。我認為，非常重要的是，我們要強調的是那些容器，是的，它們是綠色的，而且是全新的。但因此，它們符合我們的 ESG 戰略和商業定位。那是一個。

But also very importantly, when it comes to operating and the cost of operating those vessels, the charter costs that we will be paying for each of those brand new vessels, they are going to be far more competitive than the last vessels that we fixed in the spot charter market that, as we know, were very hot -- has been very hot for the past few quarters and that had some effect on our cost structure.

但也非常重要的是，在運營和運營這些船舶的成本方面，我們將為每艘全新船舶支付的租船成本，它們將比我們固定的最後一艘船舶更具競爭力正如我們所知，現貨包機市場非常火爆——過去幾個季度一直非常火爆，這對我們的成本結構產生了一些影響。

So what it means, it means that as we enter into 2023 and every month when we set delivery of one of these brand new vessel, our cost of operation per TEU of stock costs will go down compared to the current cost of operation of the company. The second question you asked whether we were changing the mix between the contract and spot. No, we are still where we were last quarter. You know that on the trades where we operate mainly, the trans-Pacific trade lane is the trade that is subject to a long-term contract discussions with the customers, the [indiscernible] for this year. We finalized those discussions towards the end of April for the new rates to kick in as of the 1st of May.

那麼這意味著什麼，這意味著隨著我們進入 2023 年，當我們每個月都安排交付其中一艘全新船舶時，與公司目前的運營成本相比，我們每 TEU 的庫存成本的運營成本將下降.你問的第二個問題是我們是否改變了合同和現貨之間的組合。不，我們仍然在上個季度的位置。你知道，在我們主要經營的貿易中，跨太平洋貿易航線是與客戶進行長期合同討論的貿易，今年的[音頻不清晰]。我們在 4 月底完成了這些討論，以便從 5 月 1 日開始實施新費率。

We have concluded secured 50% of our volume on our trans-Pacific trade lane with the contract customers. We are still remaining exposed to spot at 50%. What Eli was referring to is, today, the current situation is, by and large, spots and contracts are paying the same amount, so it doesn't make much of a difference for us to load a container that is on contract or the container that we source from the spot market. That is the two others today.

我們已經與合同客戶達成了在我們的跨太平洋貿易航線上獲得 50% 的交易量的結論。我們仍然暴露在 50% 的現貨上。 Eli所指的是，今天，目前的情況是，總的來說，現貨和合同支付相同的金額，所以我們裝載合同或集裝箱的集裝箱並沒有太大區別我們從現貨市場採購。也就是今天的另外兩個。

And the last question that you raised with regards to alliances. For them, the partnership that we entered into in 2018 with Maersk and MSC has been extremely beneficial to us, but not only to us, by the way. I think it has been extremely beneficial also to our partners, which is very important in a partnership. It has to be a win-win combination for it to last. And all parties have enjoyed significant improvements in the network, significant cost savings opportunity. And that's why this collaboration has lasted up until today.

還有你提出的關於聯盟的最後一個問題。對他們來說，我們在 2018 年與馬士基和 MSC 建立的合作夥伴關係對我們非常有利，但不僅對我們有利。我認為這對我們的合作夥伴也非常有益，這在夥伴關係中非常重要。它必須是一個雙贏的組合才能持續下去。並且各方都享受到了網絡的顯著改進、顯著的成本節約機會。這就是為什麼這種合作一直持續到今天。

It is -- for us, we continue to always keep on evaluating our options in terms of partnering with an alliance or with a liner because on top of our partnership with the 2M on the trans-Pacific trade, we also have a partnership agreement or VSA agreement, Vessel Sharing Agreement with Maersk and MSC, by the way, separately from those trade lanes where we operate with the 2M, that we operate with the 2M. Same goals on the intra-Asia region where we partner with a lot of also a smaller shipping there.

對我們來說，我們將繼續評估與聯盟或班輪合作的選擇，因為除了我們與 2M 在跨太平洋貿易方面的合作之外，我們還有一項合作協議或順便說一句，VSA 協議，與馬士基和 MSC 的船舶共享協議，與我們與 2M 運營的貿易航線分開，我們與 2M 運營。在亞洲內部地區，我們與許多小型航運公司合作，也有同樣的目標。

So this dynamic of sharing space at the end of the day and sharing operating capacity is a feature, I think, of our industry, which is -- and has brought a lot of benefits to the liners. And at the end of the day, I think a lot of benefit to the end customer as well, has allowed for the shipping industry to deliver improved input service at a lower cost.

因此，我認為，這種在一天結束時共享空間和共享運營能力的動態是我們行業的一個特點，它為班輪帶來了很多好處。歸根結底，我認為對最終客戶也有很多好處，使航運業能夠以更低的成本提供改進的投入服務。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q&A session and today's conference call. You may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節和今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開電話。感謝您的加入，祝您有愉快的一天。再見。