以星航運 (ZIM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. I'm Francy, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the ZIM Integrated Shipping Service Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，午安。感謝您的支持。我是 Francy，您的 Chorus Call 接線生。歡迎並感謝您參加 ZIM 綜合航運服務 2022 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）

It's my pleasure, and I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Elana Holzman, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

我很榮幸，現在我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Elana Holzman 女士。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Francy, and welcome to ZIM's second quarter 2022 financial results conference call. Joining me on the call today are Eli Glickman, ZIM's President and CEO; and Xavier Destriau, ZIM's CFO. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events or results.

謝謝你，弗朗西，歡迎參加 ZIM 2022 年第二季財務業績電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ZIM 總裁兼執行長 Eli Glickman；以及 ZIM 財務長 Xavier Destriau。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將對預期、預測、預期或未來事件或結果做出前瞻性陳述。

We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable. We wish to caution you that such statements reflect only the company's current expectations and that actual events or results may differ, including materially. You are kindly referred to consider the risk factors and cautionary language described in the documents the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 2021 annual report filed on Form 20-F on March 9, 1922 -- sorry, 2022. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

我們相信我們的預期和假設是合理的。我們希望提醒您，此類聲明僅反映公司當前的預期，實際事件或結果可能存在差異，甚至可能存在重大差異。請您考慮本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險因素和警示性語言，包括我們於 1922 年 3 月 9 日（抱歉，是 2022 年）以 20-F 表格提交的 2021 年年度報告。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to ZIM's CEO, Eli Glickman. Eli?

現在，我想將電話轉給 ZIM 的執行長 Eli Glickman。伊萊？

Thank you, Elana, and welcome everyone to today's call. I'm really proud of our execution and continued strong financial performance during the second quarter and first half of 2022, as you can see in Slide #3. Over the past several quarters, ZIM established itself as the leader in terms of EBITDA and EBIT margin in container shipping. Our first half results had record results for ZIM and we are pleased to continue delivering strong EBITDA and EBIT margins.

謝謝你，埃拉娜，歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議。正如您在投影片#3中所看到的，我為我們在 2022 年第二季和上半年的執行情況和持續強勁的財務表現感到非常自豪。過去幾個季度，ZIM 在 EBITDA 和 EBIT 利潤率方面確立了其在貨櫃航運領域的領先地位。我們上半年的業績為 ZIM 創造了創紀錄的成績，我們很高興繼續實現強勁的 EBITDA 和 EBIT 利潤率。

Based on our solid performance in the first half, we are reaffirming our full year guidance for 2022 and are on track to deliver another year of record earnings and profitability. We are also announcing today the increase in our quarterly dividend payout from 20% to 30% of quarterly net income. This quarterly increase is based on our confidence in our ability to deliver long-term and consistent profitability while enabling our shareholders to benefit sooner from these strong results on a quarterly basis.

基於我們上半年的穩健表現，我們重申了 2022 年全年業績指引，並有望再創盈利和盈利新高。我們今天也宣布將季度股息支付率從季度淨收入的 20% 提高到 30%。此次季度成長基於我們對實現長期持續獲利能力的信心，同時使我們的股東能夠更快地從這些強勁的季度業績中受益。

As you can see in Slide #3, in the first half of 2022, revenue grew by 73% compared to the same period in 2021. Adjusted EBITDA grew 115% and net income grew 106% as we further capitalize on elevated freight rates and resilient demand. We remain committed to profitable growth. In the first half of 2022, adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 52% to 65% and adjusted EBIT margin improved from 45% to 56%. Our balance sheet continued to be very strong, with total equity of $5.25 billion at the end of the quarter after the distribution of $2.4 billion in dividends during the first half of 2022.

正如您在投影片#3中所看到的，2022 年上半年，營收與 2021 年同期相比成長了 73%。隨著我們進一步利用上漲的運費和強勁的需求，調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 115%，淨收入成長了 106%。我們依然致力於獲利成長。 2022 年上半年，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率從 52% 提高至 65%，調整後 EBIT 利潤率從 45% 提高至 56%。我們的資產負債表繼續保持強勁，在 2022 年上半年分配了 24 億美元的股息後，本季末的總權益為 52.5 億美元。

In Slide #4, you can see that returning capital to shareholders has been and remains a top priority for us, given our confidence in our long-term profitability [and got to reward] long-term shareholders, we are increasing our quarterly dividend payout from 20% of quarterly net income to 30% of quarterly net income with the total dividend payout of 30% to 50% annual net income. As such, starting this quarter, we intend to distribute approximately 30% of quarterly net income for each of the first 3 quarters of the year with possible step-up up to 50% of annual net income with the release of Q4 and full year results subject to Board approval.

在投影片#4中，您可以看到，向股東返還資本一直是我們的首要任務，鑑於我們對長期盈利能力的信心[並給予回報]長期股東，我們將季度股息支付率從季度淨收入的20%提高到季度淨收入的30%，總股息支付率為年度淨收入的30%至50%。因此，從本季開始，我們計劃分配今年前三個季度約 30% 的季度淨收入，經董事會批准後，隨著第四季度和全年業績的發布，年度淨收入可能增加到 50%。

Accordingly, our Board declared a Q2 dividend of $4.7 -- 75 -- $4.75 per share or a total of approximately $571 million. The Q2 dividend includes a 10% onetime catch-up from Q1 net income. In Slide #4, you can see that the past several weeks have demonstrated the dynamic nature of our industry and the importance of staying focused on our core strategy and key strengths. Innovation, agility and excellence were the foundation of ZIM successful turnaround and they will continue to guide our commercial and operational strategy to further position ZIM as the top performer in our industry.

因此，我們的董事會宣布第二季股息為每股 4.7 - 75 - 4.75 美元，總計約 5.71 億美元。第二季股利包括第一季淨收入的 10% 一次性補足。在投影片#4中，您可以看到過去幾週展示了我們行業的動態性質以及專注於我們的核心策略和關鍵優勢的重要性。創新、敏捷和卓越是 ZIM 成功轉型的基礎，它們將繼續指導我們的商業和營運策略，進一步將 ZIM 定位為行業領導者。

We have established a track record of successfully identified attractive growth opportunities and adjusting our fleet size based on changing market conditions. This is a direct result of our operational and commercial agility, which has enabled ZIM to optimize vessel deployment, support high utilization level of vessels and exploit specific trade advantages driving our strong results and strong profitability. We expect this approach to continue to be beneficial as the market expected to normalize from peak levels.

我們已經建立了成功識別有吸引力的成長機會和根據不斷變化的市場條件調整船隊規模的記錄。這是我們營運和商業敏捷性的直接結果，這使 ZIM 能夠優化船舶部署、支援船舶的高利用率並利用特定的貿易優勢來推動我們強勁的業績和盈利能力。我們預計這種方法將繼續發揮作用，因為市場有望從峰值水平恢復正常。

Our global-niche strategy details that we operate in trade lanes where we have competitive advantage and can command meaningful market share. In Q2, we expanded our operating fleet capacity. We now operate 149 vessels to meet customer demand. We open new lines and adjust our service to address changes in the business environment, so our vessels continue to sail full. I remind you that we have expanded our fleet over the past few quarters, partly in anticipation of the change in our collaboration agreement with the 2M. We transitioned to a full slot swap agreement on the Asia to U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast and terminated the slot purchase agreement we had on the P&W and Asia-Med trades.

我們的全球利基策略詳細說明了我們在具有競爭優勢並能佔據重要市場份額的貿易航線上開展業務。在第二季度，我們擴大了營運船隊運力。我們目前營運 149 艘船以滿足客戶需求。我們開闢新航線並調整服務以應對商業環境的變化，因此我們的船舶繼續滿載航行。我提醒您，我們在過去幾季擴大了我們的船隊，部分原因是預期我們與 2M 的合作協議將會改變。我們將亞洲至美國東岸和墨西哥灣沿岸航線的艙位互換協議改為全面協議，並終止了普惠和亞洲-地中海航線的艙位購買協議。

As a result of these changes, which went into effect in April 2022, we increased our operated capacity in order to best serve our customers. I would also like to highlight our car carrier business. As an example of ZIM mobility to identify profitable commercial opportunities since the beginning of the year, we grew the number of car carriage. We operate [2 10] as we take important steps to further capture growth in car cargo being exported out of Asia. On the operational side, we remain committed to our strategy of relying primarily on chartered capacity while maintaining a high level of flexibility.

這些變更於 2022 年 4 月生效，隨著這些變更的實施，我們增加了營運能力，以便為客戶提供最好的服務。我還想強調一下我們的汽車運輸業務。作為 ZIM 移動性識別有利可圖的商業機會的一個例子，自今年年初以來，我們增加了汽車運輸數量。我們營運 [2 10]，並採取重要措施進一步抓住亞洲出口汽車貨物的成長機會。在營運方面，我們仍然致力於主要依靠特許運力同時保持高度靈活性的策略。

This flexibility allows us to adapt our fleet size to changing market environment. Yet, we adapted our chartering strategy to reduce our exposure to the spot charter market due to shortage in capacity and rising daily rates. Instead, growth to charter newbuild vessels for our core operated capacity to improve our cost structure in the mid- and long-term. As you know, during 2023 and 2024, we expect a delivery of 46 newbuild vessels, of which 28 are LNG-powered vessels. This newbuild capacity strengthened our commercial proposition and improved our cost structure by securing fuel-efficient newbuild capacity.

這種靈活性使我們能夠根據不斷變化的市場環境調整我們的船隊規模。然而，由於運力短缺和每日租金上漲，我們調整了租船策略，以減少在現貨租船市場的曝險。相反，透過租賃新建船舶來增加我們的核心營運能力，以改善我們中長期的成本結構。如您所知，我們預計將在 2023 年至 2024 年期間交付 46 艘新建船舶，其中 28 艘為 LNG 動力船舶。這項新建產能加強了我們的商業主張，並透過確保燃油效率高的新建產能改善了我們的成本結構。

The LNG vessels also serve our own ESG goals. We estimate that approximately 1/3 of our capacity could be LNG-powered when we take delivery of these LNG vessels, and we will be the first planning to operate an LNG fleet from Asia to the U.S. East Coast trade. We are excited that ZIM will be more carbon and cost efficient than it is today while improving our competitive position and supporting our customers in meeting their own ESG objectives. We are pleased to continue to position ZIM at the forefront of carbon intensity reduction among global liners. In Slide 6, you can see that as part of our strategy, we continue to leverage the Israeli high-tech start-up ecosystem to identify attractive -- attractive new innovative companies as growth engines.

LNG 船舶也服務於我們自己的 ESG 目標。我們估計，當我們接收這些液化天然氣船時，我們大約三分之一的運力可以由液化天然氣驅動，我們將成為第一家計劃營運從亞洲到美國東海岸貿易的液化天然氣船隊的公司。我們很高興 ZIM 將比現在更有效率地減少碳排放並節省成本，同時提高我們的競爭地位並支持我們的客戶實現自己的 ESG 目標。我們很高興繼續讓以星航運在全球班輪公司中處於碳強度降低的領先地位。在幻燈片 6 中，您可以看到，作為我們策略的一部分，我們將繼續利用以色列高科技新創企業生態系統來尋找有吸引力的——有吸引力的新型創新公司作為成長引擎。

Our focus in digital initiative, technologies relevant to our core shipping activities and the broader logistics sector, our objective is to identify this opportunity at an early stage, which requires modest investment to establish our position and serve a strategic partner, implementing the technologies internally and assist these companies in the growth. We have been very active on this front and have recently completed full investment. We did 2 follow-on investments in WAVE BL and Sodyo and first-time investment in Data Science Group and hoopo Systems.

我們專注於數位化舉措、與我們的核心航運活動和更廣泛的物流領域相關的技術，我們的目標是儘早發現這一機會，這需要適度的投資來確立我們的地位並服務於戰略合作夥伴，在內部實施技術並協助這些公司成長。我們在這方面非常活躍，最近已完成全部投資。我們對 WAVE BL 和 Sodyo 進行了兩次後續投資，並對 Data Science Group 和 hoopo Systems 進行了首次投資。

Highlighting our most recent investment in hoopo, [indiscernible] provider of cutting-edge tracking solution for unpowered assets. The solution is extremely durable, cost-efficient and power-efficient creating a tracking device that can last up to 10 years without changing the power source. Our investment in hoopo will be used in part to develop a solution suitable for the containers. While all these companies are young, we believe they hold significant potential in the future.

重點介紹我們最近對 hoopo 的投資，[音訊不清楚] hoopo 是一家為無動力資產提供尖端追蹤解決方案的供應商。此解決方案極為耐用、經濟高效且節能，無需更換電源即可打造出使用壽命長達 10 年的追蹤設備。我們對 hoopo 的投資將部分用於開發適合容器的解決方案。雖然這些公司都很年輕，但我們相信它們未來具有巨大的潛力。

Before turning the call over to Xavier, our CFO, I would like to briefly address the current market environment and outlook moving forward. As I mentioned, the shipping industry is dynamic. Over the past several weeks, we've seen a decline in freight rates, particularly in the trans-Pacific despite persistent port congestion and overall positive demand trends driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. We therefore recognize that trades may help peak. However, we know the current freight rates, which are of historic high, remain elevated and, therefore, very profitable.

在將電話轉給我們的財務長 Xavier 之前，我想先簡單介紹一下當前的市場環境和未來前景。正如我所提到的，航運業是充滿活力的。過去幾週，儘管港口持續擁堵，宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定性推動了整體需求趨勢，但運費有所下降，尤其是跨太平洋地區的運費。因此，我們認識到交易可能有助於達到高峰。然而，我們知道目前的運費處於歷史高位，仍然很高，因此利潤很高。

While we anticipate some decline in rates for the remainder of the year, we expect the normalization to be gradual and support and reaffirm 2022 guidance, which, as I mentioned, will enable us to post another year of record earnings. Furthermore, we expect the new 2023 IMO regulation and the agenda to the carbonized shipping to partially offset growth in supply and support freight rates in the mid to long-term. I will now turn the call over to Xavier for his remarks on our financial results and additional comments on the market, please?

雖然我們預計今年剩餘時間內利率會有所下降，但我們預計正常化將是漸進的，並支持和重申 2022 年的指導，正如我所提到的，這將使我們能夠再創一年的創紀錄收益。此外，我們預計2023年國際海事組織的新法規和碳排放航運議程將在中長期內部分抵銷供應成長並支持運費。現在我將把電話轉給 Xavier，請他對我們的財務表現和市場發表一些補充評論，好嗎？

Thank you, Eli. And again welcome, everyone. On Slide 7, we present key financial and operational highlights. Our strong second quarter record first half 2022 financial performance reflects the historically high freight rates, which were significantly higher this quarter compared to the prior year period, resilient demand as well and the value of our differentiated approach. Specifically, our average freight rates per TEU of $3,596 in the second quarter was 54% higher compared to the second quarter of 2021.

謝謝你，伊萊。再次歡迎大家。在第 7 張投影片上，我們展示了主要的財務和營運亮點。我們 2022 年上半年第二季創紀錄的財務業績反映了歷史性的高運費（本季與去年同期相比明顯較高）、強勁的需求以及我們差異化方法的價值。具體而言，第二季我們每標準箱的平均運費為 3,596 美元，與 2021 年第二季相比高出 54%。

During the first 6 months of the year, our average freight rate was 73% higher than in the first half of 2021. Our commercial strategy and our competitive positioning enabled us to identify better paying cargo or more to TEU than [indiscernible]. Our carried quantities in Q2 were down 7% compared to the same period last year. Lower volumes this quarter resulted primarily from continued congestion exacerbated by more congestion in the U.S. East Coast ports, which we call on our trans-Pacific trade. Over the 6 months period, our current volume was down 1% compared to the 2% decline in market volumes in the first half of 2022. When we look at the full year, we still expect to grow our volume by 2% to 3% based on a higher operating capacity and assumed easing in port congestion going forward.

今年前 6 個月，我們的平均運費比 2021 年上半年高出 73%。我們的商業策略和競爭定位使我們能夠識別出比 [音訊不清晰] 更划算的貨物或更高的 TEU 運費。我們第二季的運輸量與去年同期相比下降了 7%。本季貨運量下降的主要原因是持續擁堵，而美國東海岸港口（我們稱之為跨太平洋貿易）的擁塞情況則進一步加劇。在這 6 個月的時間裡，我們的當前吞吐量下降了 1%，而 2022 年上半年市場吞吐量下降了 2%。展望全年，我們仍預計，基於更高的營運能力和未來港口擁堵情況的緩解，我們的吞吐量將成長 2% 至 3%。

Our free cash flow in the second quarter totaled $1.6 billion compared to $851 million in the comparable second quarter of 2021, an increase of 93%. Turning now to our balance sheet, total debt increased by $1.2 billion since prior year-end. The increase is -- and that is driven mainly by the increased number of vessel fixtures, long-term charter duration, as well as higher daily charter rates. In the first half of 2022, our cash position remained essentially flat even after having paid approximately $2.4 million in dividends. Maintaining flexibility in our fleet management strategy, so we can match our capacity with customer demand remains a core focus for us.

我們第二季的自由現金流總計 16 億美元，而 2021 年第二季的自由現金流為 8.51 億美元，成長了 93%。現在看看我們的資產負債表，自上年末以來，總債務增加了 12 億美元。成長的主要原因是船舶租賃數量的增加、長期租船期限的延長以及每日租船費率的增加。 2022 年上半年，即使支付了約 240 萬美元的股息，我們的現金狀況仍然基本上保持穩定。保持車隊管理策略的靈活性，以便我們能夠根據客戶需求調整運力，這仍然是我們關注的核心。

The average remaining duration of our current chartered capacity is 27.7 months, slightly down from the 28.6 months in May 2022 and bridging our current operated capacity with the scheduled delivery of our chartered newbuild vessels. Also only 9 of our chartered vessels are scheduled for renewal between now and the end of 2022. When we look in to 2023 and 2024, 28 and 34 vessels are up for renewals, respectively. In other words, we have a total of 62 vessels up for renewal compared to the expected delivery of 46 chartered newbuild vessels during this time period.

我們目前的租賃運力平均剩餘期限為 27.7 個月，略低於 2022 年 5 月的 28.6 個月，並將我們目前的營運運力與我們租賃的新造船的預定交付時間聯繫起來。此外，從現在到 2022 年底，我們租用的船隻中只有 9 艘計劃續租。展望 2023 年和 2024 年，分別有 28 艘和 34 艘船需要續租。換句話說，我們總共有 62 艘船舶需要續租，而預計在此期間將交付 46 艘租賃新船。

Next, moving on to Slide 8, you can see that our earnings have continued to grow. Our net leverage has trended downward and is at 0.1x as of June 30 this year. Moving on to the next slide, Slide 9, our differentiated and proactive approach continues to generate strong results. Revenue for the second quarter was $3.4 billion, up 44% compared to $2.4 billion in Q2 2021. Most importantly, we grew profitably with Q2 net profit of $1.3 billion, representing a 50% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.1 billion for the quarter, an improvement of 57%.

接下來，請翻到投影片 8，您可以看到我們的收益持續成長。我們的淨槓桿率呈下降趨勢，截至今年 6 月 30 日為 0.1 倍。進入下一張投影片，第 9 張投影片，我們差異化和積極主動的方法繼續產生強勁的成果。第二季營收為 34 億美元，較 2021 年第二季的 24 億美元成長 44%。最重要的是，我們實現了獲利成長，第二季淨利為 13 億美元，年增 50%。本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 21 億美元，成長 57%。

Consistent with our focus on profitable growth, margins were 61% for adjusted EBITDA and 51% for adjusted EBIT. That is to be compared to 56% and 49%, respectively, in Q2 last year. Our 6 months 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin was 65% and adjusted EBIT margin was 56%. These profit margins are among the highest in the liner industry and do reflect our outperformance during the first half of 2022. Margin contraction in Q2 versus Q1 was driven by higher staff costs resulting from the transition of the slot indiscernible we have with the 2M, which was terminated on April 1 to our old operating capacity and also to higher indiscernible rates as well as lower average freight rate in Q2 versus Q1.

與我們對獲利成長的關註一致，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 61%，調整後的 EBIT 利潤率為 51%。相較之下，去年第二季則分別為 56% 及 49%。我們 2022 年 6 個月的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 65%，調整後 EBIT 利潤率為 56%。這些利潤率在班輪產業中名列前茅，確實反映了我們在 2022 年上半年的優異表現。第二季相對於第一季的利潤率收縮是由於我們將 2M 的艙位轉換到我們原來的營運能力導致的員工成本上升，以及艙位費率上升以及第二季與第一季度相比平均運費下降。

Moving on to Slide 10, we carry 856,000 TEUs in the second quarter compared to 921,000 TEUs during the same period last year. Lower volume on the trans-Pacific caused by the third and congestion on the East Coast was partially offset by growth in intra-Asia volume, another trade we see as a key focus. The growth in intra-Asia was driven primarily by the new e-commerce services we opened from China to Australia and New Zealand in the second half of 2021. Moving to Slide 11, regarding our cash flow, we ended Q2 2022 with a total cash position of $3.9 billion, which includes cash and cash equivalents and also investments in bank deposit and other investment instruments.

轉到投影片 10，我們在第二季運載了 856,000 TEU，而去年同期為 921,000 TEU。第三次海嘯和東海岸交通擁堵導致跨太平洋航線貨運量下降，但亞洲內部航線貨運量的成長部分抵消了這一影響，亞洲內部航線貨運量是另一項我們關注的重點貿易。亞洲內部的成長主要得益於我們在 2021 年下半年開通的從中國到澳洲和紐西蘭的新電子商務服務。前往投影片 11，關於我們的現金流，截至 2022 年第二季度，我們的現金總額為 39 億美元，其中包括現金和現金等價物以及銀行存款投資和其他投資工具。

During the first half of 2022, our adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 million converted into $3.4 billion cash flow from operations. Other cash flow items in the period included $248 million of net CapEx and $627 million of debt service. I will also remind you that during the second quarter, we distributed dividends totaling approximately $2.4 billion. Moving to our guidance, we are reaffirming our full year guidance and are on track to deliver another year of record earnings. We expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between $7.8 billion and $8.2 billion and adjusted EBIT between $6.3 billion and $6.7 billion. Our assumptions with respect to our guidance remain largely unchanged, except for lowering our expectations on volume growth from 5% to now 2% to 3% for the full year.

2022 年上半年，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 460 萬美元，轉化為 34 億美元的營運現金流。該期間的其他現金流項目包括 2.48 億美元的淨資本支出和 6.27 億美元的債務償還。我還要提醒大家，第二季我們發放的股利總額約 24 億美元。談到我們的指導，我們重申我們的全年指導，並有望實現另一年創紀錄的盈利。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 78 億美元至 82 億美元之間，調整後的 EBIT 將在 63 億美元至 67 億美元之間。我們對指引的假設基本上保持不變，只是將全年銷售成長預期從 5% 下調至現在的 2% 至 3%。

Our guidance also includes the assumption that spot rate indiscernible and that the gradual normalization in rates will continue through the second half of the year. In other words, on average spot rates in Q3 are expected to be lower compared to indiscernible of Q2 and the same for Q4 versus Q3. Turning to our view of the business environment, Slide 13. A combination of very strong demand, tight supply and port congestion were the main underlying drivers of freight rates reaching equity debt level in 2021 and early in 2022. We addressed indiscernible . Firstly, port congestion and supply chain bottleneck remains a significant challenge, especially in the United States as vessels avoided the heavily congested West Coast port and divert to indiscernible East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, the queue outside those indiscernible grew.

我們的指導也包括這樣的假設：現貨匯率難以辨別，匯率的逐步正常化將持續到今年下半年。換句話說，預計第三季的平均現貨價格將低於第二季度，第四季的平均現貨價格也將低於第三季。談到我們對商業環境的看法，請參閱投影片 13。強勁的需求、緊張的供應和港口擁堵是導致運費在 2021 年和 2022 年初達到股權債務水準的主要潛在驅動因素。我們解決了難以辨別的問題。首先，港口擁擠和供應鏈瓶頸仍然是一個重大挑戰，尤其是在美國，由於船隻避開擁擠嚴重的西海岸港口，轉而前往交通不便的東海岸和墨西哥灣沿岸港口，導致這些港口外的排隊人數不斷增加。

While there have been some correction in port operation evidenced by the improvement of majors such as Flexport's Ocean Timeliness Indicator, 90 days of trans-Pacific, it is still double the 45 days pre-COVID level. There is today still a little expectation that port congestion will materially improve in the near future despite this correction at the ports. Drewry continues to estimate that 7% of effective capacity will be tied down in 2023 due to port congestion.

儘管港口營運有所調整，Flexport 的海運時效指標等主要指標有所改善，但跨太平洋航線時效為 90 天，仍是新冠疫情爆發前 45 天水準的兩倍。儘管港口出現了這種調整，但今天人們仍然有點期待港口擁堵狀況在不久的將來會得到實質改善。德魯裡繼續估計，由於港口擁堵，2023 年 7% 的有效運力將受到限制。

Also given that port congestion is to a certain degree the outcome of landside bottlenecks, in other words, the efficiency in moving containers in and out of the port, some level of port congestion may become a lasting fixture in our industry. This would result in the reduction of the effective capacity on the water. In the United States and elsewhere, there are signs that certain headwinds such as increased inflation and higher energy prices have resulted in softening of demand. Yet overall demand trend globally and possibly in the United States remain indiscernible . 2022 volumes are higher than pre-pandemic, i.e., 2019 levels.

此外，考慮到港口壅塞在某種程度上是由陸側瓶頸造成的，換句話說，就是貨櫃進出港口的效率，某種程度的港口壅塞可能會成為我們產業的持久現象。這將導致水上有效容量的減少。在美國和其他地方，有跡象顯示通膨加劇和能源價格上漲等某些不利因素已導致需求疲軟。然而，全球乃至美國的整體需求趨勢仍不明朗。 2022 年的交易量將高於疫情前（即 2019 年）的水準。

In fact, for the first 6 months of 2022, volume was up 5.4% when compared to the same period in 2019. Going forward, the current inventory to sales ratio also supports this year. While it is up from lows of approximately 1.2% retail inventory to sales ratio is still below historical pre-COVID level of around 1.5%. In light of persistent congestion and landside bottlenecks, we believe that retailers cannot and will not maintain lower inventory to sales ratio compared to pre-COVID. Moving to Slide 15, starting in 2023, the outlook for the supply demand balance will also change with additional supply expected to be delivered and supply growth is anticipated to outpace growth in demand after a long period of tight supply.

事實上，2022 年前 6 個月的銷量與 2019 年同期相比成長了 5.4%。展望未來，目前的庫存銷售比也為今年提供了支援。儘管零售庫存與銷售額之比已從約 1.2% 的低點上升，但仍低於新冠疫情之前約 1.5% 的歷史水準。鑑於持續的交通擁堵和陸側瓶頸，我們認為零售商不能也不會維持與疫情之前相比更低的庫存銷售比。轉到幻燈片 15，從 2023 年開始，供需平衡的前景也將發生變化，預計將交付額外的供應，並且在長期供應緊張之後，預計供應增長將超過需求增長。

Yet, we believe that both short and long-term net effective supply growth may be smaller than is implied by the current order book. In 2023, port congestion will partially offset the expected 9% in supply growth as well as possible slow steaming resulting from IMO 2023 regulation are expected to go into effective January 2023. The growth in supply also grew above scrapping, which was essentially 0 in the past couple of years. Longer term, we have indicated that the increase in order book is at least partially a response to the anticipated pressure to de-carbonized shipping and reuse aging fleet.

然而，我們認為短期和長期淨有效供應成長可能都小於目前訂單所暗示的水平。 2023 年，港口壅塞將部分抵銷預期的 9% 供應量成長，以及預計 2023 年 1 月生效的 IMO 2023 法規可能導致的船舶減速。供應量的成長也高於拆船量，後者在過去幾年基本上為 0。從長遠來看，我們已經指出，訂單量的增加至少部分是對預期的航運脫碳和老齡船隊再利用壓力的回應。

As such, the motivation to scrap older less efficient vessels may grow resulting in lower growth in actual capacity that is currently implied by the order book. To summarize, these factors support our positive outlook on our business environment. And I also note that the recent consolidation in the industry and [operationalizing] also further support improved efficiencies in our industry.

因此，報廢老舊低效率船舶的動機可能會增強，從而導致目前訂單量所暗示的實際運力增長降低。總而言之，這些因素支持了我們對商業環境的正面看法。我還注意到，最近的行業整合和營運也進一步支持了我們行業效率的提高。

And with that, I will turn the call back for Eli -- to Eli, sorry, for his concluding remarks.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給 Eli — — 抱歉，請 Eli 做最後發言。

Thank you, Xavier. Thank you. I'm incredibly proud of our team and ZIM ability to execute at the highest level and deliver on our commitment to profitable growth reflected in our second quarter and first half of 2022 performance. We generated our best ever first half year results and are set to deliver another record year based on the guidance, which we reaffirmed today. We believe this core strategy and key strengths will continue to serve us well as freight rates are expected to continue to gradually normalize from peak levels.

謝謝你，澤維爾。謝謝。我為我們的團隊和 ZIM 能夠以最高水準執行並兌現我們對獲利成長的承諾感到無比自豪，這反映在我們 2022 年第二季和上半年的業績中。我們取得了有史以來最好的上半年業績，並有望根據我們今天重申的指導方針再創佳績。我們相信，隨著運費預計將從峰值水準逐步恢復正常，這項核心策略和關鍵優勢將繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

We have taken proactive steps to improve ZIM commercial proposition and competitive position, both commercially and operationally. We anticipate the changing nature of the charter market and adapted our fleet strategy to secure our core fleet and reduce our dependence on the spot charter market. We entered into multiple mid- and long-term charter agreements to secure cost and fuel efficient newbuild capacity. To remind you, our first charter agreement for 10, 15,000 TEU vessels, which will be the largest vessel in our fleet was signed over 18 months ago.

我們已採取積極措施，在商業和營運方面改善 ZIM 的商業主張和競爭地位。我們預測租船市場的變化，並調整了我們的船隊策略，以確保我們的核心船隊安全並減少對現貨租船市場的依賴。我們簽訂了多項中期和長期租船協議，以確保成本和燃料高效的新運力。提醒您，我們的第一份租船協議是在 18 個月前簽署的，該協議涉及 10 艘 15,000 TEU 船舶，這將是我們船隊中最大的船舶。

Going forward, we remain highly confident that our global-niche strategy and cost structure, strengthening of commercial prospects and investing in innovation and disruptive technologies positioned ZIM to be a top performer in our industry and deliver long-term shareholder value.

展望未來，我們仍然充滿信心，我們的全球利基策略和成本結構、加強的商業前景以及對創新和顛覆性技術的投資將使 ZIM 成為我們行業的領先者並為股東帶來長期價值。

Francy, we'll take questions now. Thank you.

法蘭西，我們現在來回答問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Sathish Sivakumar from Citigroup.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Sathish Sivakumar。

I've got 3 questions here. So firstly, on the dividend payout ratio, right, the change in from 20% to 30%, what has actually like triggered this quarterly dividend payout ratio change given that going into H2 and then the next year, there's uncertainty around demand and also the rate as the rate starts to normalize. So could you actually explain the thought process why [indiscernible] ratio?

我有 3 個問題。首先，關於股息支付率，從 20% 到 30% 的變化，實際上是什麼引發了季度股息支付率的變化，因為進入下半年以及明年，隨著利率開始正常化，需求和利率都存在不確定性。那你能解釋為什麼[音訊不清晰]比例的思考過程嗎？

And then secondly, on the vessel utilization, on the ships, can you give a context like that the vessel utilizations are today and this is what it used to be at the start of the year, especially out of Asia to trans-Pacific. And then the third one that's around the spot surcharges. Obviously, last year, there was a big cushion of at least there's this second increase in volumes that were on spot premium surcharges. Have you actually add any spot premium volumes in Q2? And how does it actually look as we go into Q3 in terms of that part of the market. Those are my 3 questions.

其次，關於船舶利用率，您能否提供一下背景信息，例如今天的船舶利用率與今年年初的船舶利用率相比如何，尤其是從亞洲到跨太平洋的船舶利用率。第三個是關於現貨附加費。顯然，去年現貨保費附加費的成交量至少第二次出現了大幅增長，這為其提供了很大的緩衝。您在第二季度實際上增加了任何現貨溢價量嗎？就該部分市場而言，當我們進入第三季時，實際情況如何？這是我的三個問題。

Sathish, if I may, I will address your questions. The first one with respect to the dividend quarterly payout increase from 20% to 30%, you may remember that we, from the outset said that we intended to return significant capital to shareholders. And we have on already a couple of occasions tweak or change or updated our dividend policy. We started between 0% to 50% dividend payout once a year. Then we acknowledge that this was a bit too vague, and we wanted to clarify also for our investors our view on our market and our ability to continue to distribute dividends.

薩蒂什，如果可以的話，我將回答你的問題。第一個是關於季度股息支付從 20% 增加到 30%，您可能還記得，我們​​從一開始就說過，我們打算向股東返還大量資本。我們已經多次調整、改變或更新了我們的股利政策。我們每年都會支付 0% 至 50% 的股息。然後我們承認這有點太模糊了，我們也想為我們的投資者澄清我們對市場的看法以及我們繼續分配股息的能力。

So we switched from yearly to a quarterly, and we took the conservative view initially to only distribute 20% even though on a quarterly basis, even though we recommitted our intention to distribute between to 30% to 50% of our full year net earnings. So that meant at the end of the day that we would always end up or very likely always end up with a significant higher dividend payment once a year when we release our full year financials, if it is just only because we would catch up from 20% to 30%. As we feel confident in our ability to continue to generate quarter-after-quarter ongoing profit, then we serve there is no real reason to hold back for the first 3 quarters and to catch up to get to at least a 30% once a year.

因此，我們從每年分配一次改為每季分配一次，最初我們採取保守的觀點，雖然按季度分配，但只分配 20%，儘管我們再次承諾要分配全年淨收益的 30% 到 50%。因此，這意味著，當我們發布全年財務報告時，我們最終總是會或很可能總是會獲得大幅更高的股息支付，即使這僅僅是因為我們要從 20% 趕上 30%。由於我們對自己繼續逐季創造持續利潤的能力充滿信心，因此我們沒有理由在前三個季度停滯不前，並努力爭取每年至少達到 30% 的利潤率。

Hence, why we've made that change today. Second, looking at taking your second question in terms of vessel utilization, up until today, most of our vessels, if not all, our vessels when we are focusing on the trans-Pacific trade lanes are sailing full. We did mention that despite the fact that this does not necessarily -- has not necessarily translated in terms of volume with the overall volume in terms of TEU that we initially expected due to congestion, but this is a congestion effect that the schedule is taking longer than anticipated, not utilization effect.

這就是我們今天做出這項改變的原因。第二，關於船舶利用率的第二個問題，到目前為止，當我們專注於跨太平洋貿易航線時，我們的大多數船舶（如果不是全部的話）都是滿載的航行。我們確實提到，儘管這不一定 - 不一定在數量上轉化為我們最初由於擁堵而預期的 TEU 總量，但這是一種擁堵效應，即時間表花費的時間比預期的要長，而不是利用率效應。

So our vessels have been sailing full up until today. And for the remainder of the year, we are also assuming that the utilization will continue to be extremely strong. And this is why we think that we'll be able to catch up on our volume assumptions on a full year basis because utilization will remain strong, and we will also assume some sort of easing in the current congestion or the bottleneck at the terminal at the receiving end. And the third, the way I think about our ability to add surcharges to our income, which has been a significant feature towards the end of 2021 and also to some extent during the first quarter of 2022.

因此直到今天我們的船都滿載航行。而在今年剩餘時間內，我們也預期利用率將持續維持極高的水準。這就是為什麼我們認為我們能夠在全年基礎上趕上我們的數量假設，因為利用率將保持強勁，並且我們還將假設當前的擁堵或接收端終端的瓶頸將得到某種緩解。第三，我認為我們有能力增加收入，這是 2021 年底的重要特徵，在某種程度上也是 2022 年第一季的重要特徵。

So this has failed clearly over the quarter, and we are not assuming that we will generate significant additional surcharge going forward. We take the view when we talked about our guidance for 2022 on average that the rate normalization will continue albeit at a pace which is gradual, which has always been, by the way, our assumptions when it comes to the normalization agenda.

因此，這在本季度顯然失敗了，我們並不認為未來會產生大量額外的附加費。當我們談論 2022 年的平均指引時，我們認為利率正常化將繼續，儘管速度是漸進的，順便說一句，這一直是我們對正常化議程的假設。

I've got a couple of follow-ups, if I may. On the dividend, basically, right, why not share buyback, and that actually gives you flexibility, right, as you go into a potential downturn. Have you considered share buyback in the future?

如果可以的話，我還有一些後續問題。關於股息，基本上，對吧，為什麼不回購股票呢，這實際上為你提供了靈活性，對吧，當你陷入潛在的低迷時。未來有考慮過股票回購嗎？

And then the second one, actually, on the volume normalization into -- for the full year. So if you look at your H1 this year versus last year, you've basically [indiscernible] proportion of volumes towards intra-Asia. So do you expect that trend to continue and that's what would your volume recovery come through to H2?

然後第二個實際上是關於全年交易量正常化。因此，如果你將今年上半年與去年同期進行比較，你會發現，亞洲內部的交易量佔比基本上是[音頻不清晰]。那麼，您是否預期這種趨勢會持續下去？您的銷售恢復狀況會如何？

So let me start with the second question that you raised. We -- yes, on the intra-Asia trade, we continue to be very active. We talked about lines that we recently opened between Southeast Asia also to Australia and New Zealand. And so we see a lot of growth -- opportunity growth on the intra-Asia trade lane and we are well-positioned to capture the volume growth in this region. Going to your first question, why not share buyback and why dividend, we have up until today promoted returning significant dividend to our shareholders and it's good that we have and if we look at our 12 months into being a traded company, we've returned $21.5 per share to our shareholders, $2.4 billion in terms of dividend.

那麼讓我從您提出的第二個問題開始。是的，在亞洲內部貿易方面，我們繼續非常活躍。我們談到了最近開通的東南亞至澳洲和紐西蘭的航線。因此，我們看到了亞洲內部貿易航線的巨大成長機會，我們已做好準備，抓住該地區的貿易量成長機會。回答您的第一個問題，為什麼不回購股票，為什麼要派發股息，到目前為止，我們一直在提倡向股東返還大量股息，這很好，如果我們回顧一下我們作為一家上市公司的 12 個月，我們已向股東返還每股 21.5 美元，股息總額達 24 億美元。

We -- when we guide for 2022, the numbers that we are guiding suggests that they will still be more dividend to come in the future. So up until today, we have promoted returning capital to shareholders via dividend. And we continue again by updating our dividend policy in terms of interim payout that we just talked about from 20% to 30%. So that's always a commitment that we made to the shareholders on day 1, and we are delivering on that front. That doesn't mean that the share buyback is completely out of the table and until today, we haven't entertained such initiative. But the Board and management will continue to always evaluate quarter after quarter what is the best avenue, the best way for us to continue to maximize shareholder value and share buyback is clearly one way to return capital to shareholders on top of the dividend.

當我們為 2022 年制定指導方針時，我們所指導的數字表明未來將有更多的紅利。所以直到今天，我們一直提倡透過股利向股東返還資本。我們繼續更新股利政策，將中期派息率從我們剛才談到的 20% 提高到 30%。因此，這始終是我們第一天向股東做出的承諾，而我們正在兌現這項承諾。這並不意味著股票回購完全不可能，直到今天，我們還沒有考慮過這樣的措施。但董事會和管理層將繼續逐季評估最佳途徑，對我們而言繼續實現股東價值最大化的最佳方式，而股票回購顯然是在股息的基礎上向股東返還資本的一種方式。

That's quite helpful.

這很有幫助。

The next question is from Omar Nokta from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Omar Nokta。

Eli and Xavier, thanks for the update. Obviously, a very nice solid quarter and good to see the guidance reaffirmed, especially given spot freight rates have been coming off here the past several weeks. Having said that, some of your peers had actually been raising guidance this past -- or the past couple of weeks, this earnings season, which I think kind of set up expectations that we could see the same from ZIM. Is there anything that you could highlight that maybe separate you from the others in this respect? Is it higher relative spot exposure on the trans-Pacific or is it maybe a function of being too conservative?

Eli 和 Xavier，謝謝你們的更新。顯然，這是一個非常穩健的季度，很高興看到業績指引得到重申，特別是考慮到過去幾週現貨運費一直在下降。話雖如此，您的一些同行實際上在過去或過去幾週的財報季中一直在提高業績指引，我認為這在某種程度上樹立了我們對 ZIM 可能採取同樣做法的預期。在這方面，您能強調什麼讓您與其他人有所不同嗎？這是因為跨太平洋的現貨風險敞口相對較高，還是因為過於保守？

I would like to begin. Xavier, you will comment. First is question to manage expectations. We began the year in very high expectations from 2022, and we share it with our analysts and investors. Looking on our EBITDA margin, EBIT margin the first 6 months, ZIM is doing and consider, let's say, one of the leaders compared to those [indiscernible] published a result. For sure, those on the Western side of the world, not by 1% or 2%. So in Q1, although it was very short time after the first guidance for the year, we increased our expectation for the year.

我想開始。澤維爾，你會發表評論。首先是管理預期的問題。我們對 2022 年抱有很高的期望，並與我們的分析師和投資者分享這項期望。從我們的 EBITDA 利潤率、前 6 個月的 EBIT 利潤率來看，ZIM 的表現可謂是領先者之一，與那些 [音訊不清晰] 公佈的結果相比。可以肯定的是，對於西方國家來說，這一數字不會低 1% 或 2%。因此，在第一季度，儘管距離今年的第一個指導發佈時間很短，但我們還是提高了對今年的預期。

And we set targets that 2022 will be a better year, speaking of EBITDA and EBIT bottom line compared to '21 was the best year ever for ZIM. We believe that our responsibility is to be conservative as we seek gradual normalization of the rates, mainly in the trans-Pacific on the freight rates. So we would like to reaffirm our guidance for the year in the same -- this is real target for ZIM to deliver best result. Compared to the company that you spoke about, they have decided to begin the year with low expectation, mainly for the second half of the year, and they improved the guidance from the beginning low guidance. Xavier?

我們設定的目標是，2022 年將是更好的一年，就 EBITDA 和 EBIT 底線而言，與 2021 年相比，2021 年是 ZIM 有史以來最好的一年。我們認為，我們的責任是保持保守，因為我們尋求逐步實現運費正常化，主要是跨太平洋地區的運費正常化。因此，我們想重申我們對今年的指導——這是 ZIM 實現最佳業績的真正目標。與你提到的那家公司相比，他們決定以較低的預期開始新的一年，主要是針對下半年，並且他們從年初的低預期中提高了預期。澤維爾？

No, I think we need to look at things, Omar, in absolute terms when you look at things in absolute term, related to our size, we are a smaller company than some of the larger [indiscernible] players. Those are the ones you are referring to. Our operating capacity is less than 500,000 TEU to be compared to the other ones. And if you were to do a comparison in terms of EBIT per TEU that is being operated, you may come to a very different conclusion with respect to the relative performance of a liner versus another one.

不，奧馬爾，我認為我們需要從絕對的角度來看待事物，當你從絕對的角度來看待事物時，就我們的規模而言，我們是一家比一些較大的 [音頻不清晰] 公司規模較小的公司。這些就是您所指的。與其他公司相比，我們的營運能力不足 500,000 TEU。如果您對正在運作的每個標準箱的息稅前利潤進行比較，您可能會對某艘班輪與另一艘班輪的相對錶現得出截然不同的結論。

That's helpful, and I appreciate those comments. And I guess maybe just about volumes, you've mentioned, I think, Eli, that you've taken the fleet up to 149 vessels. Volumes have been flattish here the past 3 or 4 quarters. How should we think about volumes going forward? You were thinking 5% growth before. Now it's maybe 2% to 3%. So far in the third quarter, are you seeing higher volumes that give you maybe some confidence that we are going to see a bounce here in volumes? Or is it still more of an expectation as we proceed to the rest of the year?

這很有幫助，我很感謝這些評論。我想也許只是關於數量，伊萊，您提到過，您的船隊已經擁有 149 艘船。過去三、四個季度，這裡的交易量一直持平。我們該如何看待未來銷售量？您之前考慮的是 5% 的成長。現在大概是2%到3%。到目前為止，第三季的交易量是否有所增加，這是否讓您有信心我們會看到交易量反彈？或者說，隨著我們進入今年剩餘的時間，這仍然只是一種期待？

No, no. We clearly expect to deliver on increased the volume of carried quantity into Q3. For many reasons, again, it is not that the vessels have been not selling full over the past quarter. It's been more that there's been there -- those issues in terms of congestion. And we think we'll need to go hand in hand, if we assume that the rate -- the freight rates will continue to normalize, it is -- it has to go with the -- also from a landside perspective aspect of things, that congestion should start to ease significantly because if that doesn't happen, then the scenario or the underlying assumption that freight rate will normalize might be challenged.

不，不。我們明確期望在第三季增加運輸量。由於多種原因，過去一個季度船隻銷售並非一直不佳。那裡存在的更多問題是交通擁堵。我們認為我們需要齊頭並進，如果我們假設運費將繼續正常化，那麼它必須與陸側角度相結合，擁堵應該開始顯著緩解，因為如果這種情況沒有發生，那麼運費正常化的情景或基本假設可能會受到挑戰。

So if we are taking the conservative view or the reasonable view on the freight rate level, then we also need to assume that we will be less penalized in terms of tariff quantity by the congestion. So that's one. Second is also when we look at the capacity that we are operating, we are also taking delivery of more vessels in the third and fourth quarter. We are going to be taking delivery of a large capacity vessel as well that are going to be entering into Asia, U.S. East Coast, ahead of our big transition next year, which is around the corner, where we will start getting the first 15,000 TEU LNG vessels that will be delivered to us in February.

因此，如果我們對運費水平持保守或合理的看法，那麼我們還需要假設，就運價數量而言，擁堵對我們造成的損失較小。這就是其中之一。第二，當我們查看我們的營運運力時，我們也會在第三季和第四季接收更多船隻。我們還將接收一艘大容量的船隻，這些船隻將在明年即將發生的重大轉型之前進入亞洲和美國東海岸，屆時我們將開始接收第一批 15,000 TEU 液化天然氣船隻，這些船隻將於明年 2 月交付給我們。

So that's really a combination of us operating more capacity, if you will. And second, assuming that the congestion will ease and will improve, therefore, allowing us to move more and more cargo and therefore, increase our tariff quantities.

所以如果你願意的話，這其實是我們經營更多產能的組合。其次，假設擁塞情況將會緩解並得到改善，因此，我們可以運輸越來越多的貨物，從而增加我們的運價數量。

Got it. And just final one on the new buildings, the 46 that are coming on starting next year that are going to be vastly much more fuel efficient. In terms of your existing footprint, how do you see these newbuildings joining dozen fleet. Theoretically, you have 149. Is it simply 46 come out of the existing chartering fleet and you bring in these new 46, so your overall fleet size stays the same? Or do you expect to add some of these a bit more permanently?

知道了。最後再說一下新建築，明年將有 46 棟新建築投入使用，它們的燃料效率將大大提高。就您現有的足跡而言，您如何看待這些新船加入十幾艘船隊？理論上，你們有 149 艘船。是不是只需要從現有的租賃船隊中抽出 46 艘，再引入這 46 艘新船，你們的整體船隊規模就保持不變？或者您希望更永久地添加其中一些？

And I guess that's sort of -- that's like the one question. The other one I have is on that, have you done sort of an analysis? Or are you willing to give maybe what these newbuildings will look like on a ship-by-ship basis? So if we were to replace ships on a one-to-one basis in terms of TEU cost, are you able to get how much they would reduce your unit cost by? I know that was a bit of a jumble question, but simply what does your cost go down by if you were to assume all 46 newbuildings come in and replace 46 existing ships that are currently in the fleet?

我想這有點像——這就像一個問題。我還有另一個問題，關於這個，你做過分析嗎？或者您願意透露這些新船的具體外觀？那麼，如果我們按照 TEU 成本一對一地更換船舶，您能知道它們可以降低多少單位成本嗎？我知道這個問題有點混亂，但如果您假設所有 46 艘新船都來替換目前船隊中的 46 艘現有船隻，那麼您的成本會降低多少呢？

The answer is not that simple because starting with the beginning of your question, we are not planning on replacing ship-by-ship. So we have, indeed, those 46 newbuildings that are coming our way for which we are committed to, and we are eagerly awaiting this capacity. And if we look at the vessels that out of the 140 container vessels that we operate today, we have 62 vessels that we cover for renewal over the same period. And we will decide whether we want to let those some or all of that capacity, depending on our reading of the market and whether we see options for us to grow or enter it into new trade lane.

答案並不是那麼簡單，因為從你的問題一開始，我們就不打算逐艘更換船隻。因此，我們確實有 46 艘新船即將交付，我們正熱切地等待著這一容量。如果我們看一下我們目前運營的 140 艘貨櫃船，我們會發現同期有 62 艘船需要續保。我們將根據對市場的解讀以及我們是否看到成長或進入新貿易航線的選擇來決定是否要讓出部分或全部運力。

So the determination will be made as we go. And as we are today, I'm sure you would assume that we are preparing for 2023. We are in the budget season as far as in those, so we are already looking into 2023, what is the fleet plan, what are the trade lanes that we intend to continue to grow in exit, enter. So this is very much in the process as we currently speak. So it's not going to be one-for-one. And to give you an example, the first series of 15,000 TEU vessels, so the 10, 15,000 TEU vessel will clearly be deployed on our Asia, U.S. East Coast trade, the [indiscernible] all of them, and they will replace vessels that are currently of a capacity of between 9,000 to 10,000 TEUs.

因此，我們會在前進的過程中做出決定。就我們今天的情況而言，我相信您會認為我們正在為 2023 年做準備。就預算而言，我們正處於預算季節，因此我們已經在展望 2023 年，船隊計劃是什麼，我們打算繼續增加出口和入口的貿易航線是什麼。因此，正如我們目前所說，這在很大程度上正在進行中。所以這不會是一對一的。舉個例子，第一批 15,000 TEU 船舶，即 10,15,000 TEU 船舶，顯然將部署在我們的亞洲、美國東海岸貿易航線上，[音頻不清晰] 所有航線上，它們將取代目前運力在 9,000 至 10,000 TEU 之間的船舶。

What we do with this capacity of 9,000 to 10,000 TEUs? We might trade some of that capacity into other trades, be it on the P&W, for example, or on a second stream on Asia to the Gulf or to the U.S. East Coast. We are looking into that. This is also a discussion that may take place with our partner. As we know, we jointly operate with Maersk and MSC, our trans-Pacific trade base. So there is a lot of potential scenario that may unfold, which will lead to a different conclusion when it comes to our fleet plan going forward.

我們如何處理這 9,000 至 10,000 TEU 的容量？我們可能會將部分運力轉移到其他航線，例如普惠鐵路，或亞洲至墨西哥灣或美國東岸的第二條航線。我們正在調查此事。這也是我們可能與合作夥伴的討論。我們知道，我們與馬士基和地中海航運共同運作我們的跨太平洋貿易基地。因此，有很多潛在的情況可能會發生，這將導致我們未來的船隊計劃得出不同的結論。

What we wanted to make sure is that we have the option to grow, not the obligation to grow. And that's very important in terms of fleet planning. The fact that as we committed to those policies newbuilding, that we have the ability to redeliver a significant portion of our current capacity going forward.

我們想要確保的是，我們有成長的選擇，而不是成長的義務。這對於船隊規劃來說非常重要。事實上，當我們致力於這些新建政策時，我們有能力在未來重新交付我們當前產能的很大一部分。

That optionality is key. I'll leave it there.

這種可選性是關鍵。我就把它留在那裡。

The next question is from Sam Bland from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sam Bland。

I have 2, please. The first one is, could you talk about, I think, the change in the 2M relationship started at the beginning of April. Could you talk about to what extent that increased your unit cost quarter-on-quarter, please? And the second question is I think you talked about in the opening remarks that maybe in the last few weeks, spot rates have been coming down quite sharply. I can't view, if anything, congestion seems to be possibly getting worse on a global basis. And I don't think demand is falling that quickly. I guess I'm interested in why you think spot rates are coming down so sharply given those 2 factors?

我有 2 個。第一個問題是，您能否談談，我認為 2M 關係的變化始於 4 月初。您能否談談您的單位成本較上季成長了多少？第二個問題是，我認為您在開場白中提到，也許在過去幾週，現貨價格一直在急劇下降。我無法想像，如果有的話，全球範圍內的交通擁堵似乎會變得更加嚴重。我不認為需求下降得那麼快。我感興趣的是，考慮到這兩個因素，您認為為何現貨價格會大幅下降？

Thank you, Sam. The first question with regards to the change in the relationship of the corporation, the partnership with the 2M, you're correct that we entered into this new network on -- or the changes were effective as of the 1st, April this year. So in the first quarter, we were a net slot buyer from our partners who were jointly operating their capacity. But at the end of the day, we were also, in addition, buying slot from our partners, Maersk and MSC on the trans-Pacific trade lane and on the Asia [indiscernible].

謝謝你，山姆。第一個問題是關於公司關係的變化，與 2M 的合作關係，您說得對，我們是在 4 月 1 日加入這個新網絡的——或者說這些變化是在今年 4 月 1 日生效的。因此，在第一季度，我們是來自共同營運運力的合作夥伴的淨艙位買家。但最終，我們也從我們的合作夥伴馬士基和地中海航運公司購買了跨太平洋貿易航線和亞洲[音頻不清晰]上的艙位。

As from the 1st of April this year, we shifted completely to a full slot agreement, meaning that we are no longer buying any slots from Maersk and MSC and we are purely exchanging capacity on the vessels that we jointly operate on the trade that we continue to operate, which are mainly the Asia, U.S. East Coast and the Asia to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

從今年 4 月 1 日起，我們完全轉向全艙協議，這意味著我們不再從馬士基和地中海航運購買任何艙位，我們純粹是在我們繼續運營的貿易中交換我們共同運營的船隻的運力，主要是亞洲、美國東海岸和亞洲至美國墨西哥灣沿岸。

So as a result, what happened, we -- as you've seen that we anticipated that change in the collaboration in terms of the structure of the collaboration. So we have to begin additional capacity in order to continue to be able to operate a similar tonnage at the end of the day. So that's what I've explained to some extent, the increase in vessels that we are operating today versus what we are operating a few quarters back. And in terms of -- and -- so we saw those vessels from the indiscernible market at rate that obviously where the prevailing rates that tonnage providers were commending and that's where it's quite a different from the slot rate that we were purchasing from our partners.

因此，結果如何呢？如您所見，我們預見了合作結構的變化。因此，我們必須開始增加產能，以便最終能夠繼續運作類似的噸位。這就是我在某種程度上解釋的，與幾個季度前相比，我們今天運營的船隻數量有所增加。就此而言——而且——我們看到這些來自難以辨別的市場的船隻的運價顯然是噸位供應商推薦的現行運價，這與我們從合作夥伴那裡購買的艙位運價有很大不同。

So in terms of indiscernible that we need to quantify but it's an [original sale] of a $100 million. Second on the -- on your question with respect to the rate dynamic and why you need that we are assuming that the normalization of the rate of the spot market might continue to slide with the already experience already throughout the second quarter. How is that possible if indeed the congestion continue to be there or to worsen? You're right. This is -- there's a lot uncertainty ahead of us and it might ended in a different scenario.

因此，就我們需要量化的難以辨別而言，但這是 1 億美元的 [原始銷售額]。第二，關於您關於匯率動態的問題以及為什麼需要這個問題，我們假設現貨市場匯率的正常化可能會繼續下滑，這種情況已經在整個第二季度出現過。如果擁堵情況確實持續存在或惡化，這怎麼可能？你說得對。這就是——我們面前有很多不確定性，而且結果可能會有所不同。

What we are just hearsaying is that it is -- we think it needs to go hand-in-hand if we assume continued normalization in the freight rate. Then at some point, congestion should ease. Otherwise, we would be in a situation which would be quite awkward where there would be no real reason to justify the rate adjustment. So that's why we are making that assumption. If we were to be wrong in the assumptions with respect to the easing in the congestion, it is very possible as the demand is still strong. It's not as strong as it used to be. Let's be clear. There are signs of weakening in demand as well and that maybe weighed significantly in the explanation of why the rates are starting to normalize. But the demand is still there compared to pre-pandemic level, we are still very resilient.

我們只是聽說它是——我們認為如果我們假設運費繼續正常化，它需要齊頭並進。那麼到了一定時候，擁堵情況就會緩解。否則，我們將陷入相當尷尬的境地，沒有真正的理由來證明利率調整的合理性。這就是我們做出這個假設的原因。如果我們對緩解交通擁堵的假設是錯誤的，這是很有可能的，因為需求仍然強勁。它不再像以前那麼強大了。讓我們明確一點。需求也出現了減弱的跡象，這或許在很大程度上解釋了為什麼利率開始正常化。但與疫情前的水平相比，需求仍然存在，我們仍然具有很強的韌性。

Remembering that last year was extremely strong. So when we compare year-over-year, yes, there might be signs of weakness but it's still a strong market. So that's an assumption we are making. We're thinking it's a reasonable one. There might be other scenarios at the end of the day, we'll see which is which.

回想去年是極為強勁的一年。因此，當我們進行同比比較時，確實可能存在疲軟跡象，但市場仍然強勁。這是我們所做的假設。我們認為這是合理的。最終可能還會出現其他情況，我們拭目以待。

The next question is from Alexia Dogani from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Alexia Dogani。

I also have 3. Just firstly, on kind of recessionary scenario. Can you just kind of explain to us what kind of flexibility you have to adjust the network? And should you need to, I guess, kind of the reference of the number of vessels expiring would be helpful. Then secondly, am I correct in picking up that Eli, in his comments mentioned that you are reducing your spot exposure and you're entering in more contract agreements. If that's right, can you give us a rough indication of how spot versus contract is evolving?

我也有 3 個。首先，關於經濟衰退的情況。您能否向我們解釋一下您在調整網路方面具有什麼樣的靈活性？如果你需要的話，我想，參考一下到期船隻的數量會很有幫助。其次，我是否正確地了解 Eli 在他的評論中提到您正在減少現貨風險敞口並簽訂更多合約協議。如果正確的話，您能否粗略地介紹一下現貨與合約是如何演變的？

And then finally, in terms of the alliances and kind of the pros or cons of joining an alliance, have you -- is that a possibility or what do you think?

最後，就聯盟以及加入聯盟的利弊而言，您是否有可能或您認為如何？

The -- with respect to your first question, what are the tools or what could we do in case of a prolonged recession beyond, I guess, your question is that even beyond the 2022 and 2023 and then maybe '24. The flexibility for us is key and critical, and we have 28 vessels that they will cover for renewal in 2023. So if we were to end up in a situation where the global economy is entering into a prolonged recession and as a consequence, in demand on the trade where we operate was to significantly drop, then we would obviously not renew those charters.

關於您的第一個問題，如果出現長期經濟衰退，我們有什麼工具或可以做什麼，我想，您的問題是，甚至在 2022 年、2023 年甚至 2024 年之後。對我們來說，靈活性是關鍵，我們有 28 艘船需要在 2023 年續租。因此，如果我們最終陷入全球經濟進入長期衰退的境地，導致我們營運的貿易需求大幅下降，那麼我們顯然不會續簽這些租船合約。

We also have in 2024, another 34 vessels that will come up for renewal. What is very important because then you might say, but yes, but you have the 46 vessels that are coming in over the same period. What is very important, I think, for us to emphasize is that those vessels, yes, they are green and they are brand new. But as a result, they meet our ESG strategy and commercial positioning. That's one.

到 2024 年，我們還將有另外 34 艘船舶需要續約。這非常重要，因為你可能會說，是的，但在同一時期有 46 艘船進港。我認為，我們需要強調的是，這些船隻是綠色的，而且是全新的。但結果是，它們符合我們的ESG策略和商業定位。那是一個。

But also very importantly, when it comes to operating and the cost of operating those vessels, the charter costs that we will be paying for each of those brand new vessels, they are going to be far more competitive than the last vessels that we fixed in the spot charter market that, as we know, were very hot -- has been very hot for the past few quarters and that had some effect on our cost structure.

但同樣非常重要的是，當涉及到運營和運營這些船舶的成本時，我們將為每艘全新的船舶支付的租船成本將比我們在現貨租船市場上固定的最後一批船舶更具競爭力，正如我們所知，現貨租船市場非常熱門 - 過去幾個季度一直非常熱門，這對我們的成本結構產生了一定的影響。

So what it means, it means that as we enter into 2023 and every month when we set delivery of one of these brand new vessel, our cost of operation per TEU of stock costs will go down compared to the current cost of operation of the company. The second question you asked whether we were changing the mix between the contract and spot. No, we are still where we were last quarter. You know that on the trades where we operate mainly, the trans-Pacific trade lane is the trade that is subject to a long-term contract discussions with the customers, the [indiscernible] for this year. We finalized those discussions towards the end of April for the new rates to kick in as of the 1st of May.

這意味著，當我們進入 2023 年並且每個月交付一艘全新船舶時，與公司目前的營運成本相比，我們每 TEU 的庫存成本營運成本將會下降。第二個問題是，您問我們是否正在改變合約和現貨之間的組合。不，我們仍處於上一季的狀態。您知道，在我們主要經營的貿易中，跨太平洋貿易航線是需要與客戶進行長期合約談判的貿易，今年的[音頻不清晰]。我們在四月底完成了這些討論，新的利率將於五月一日起生效。

We have concluded secured 50% of our volume on our trans-Pacific trade lane with the contract customers. We are still remaining exposed to spot at 50%. What Eli was referring to is, today, the current situation is, by and large, spots and contracts are paying the same amount, so it doesn't make much of a difference for us to load a container that is on contract or the container that we source from the spot market. That is the two others today.

我們已與合約客戶達成協議，確保跨太平洋貿易航線 50% 的貨運量。我們的現貨敞口仍為 50%。 Eli 指的是，今天，目前的情況是，總體而言，現貨和合約支付的金額相同，因此對於我們來說，裝載合約貨櫃或從現貨市場採購的貨櫃並沒有太大區別。這就是今天的另外兩個。

And the last question that you raised with regards to alliances. For them, the partnership that we entered into in 2018 with Maersk and MSC has been extremely beneficial to us, but not only to us, by the way. I think it has been extremely beneficial also to our partners, which is very important in a partnership. It has to be a win-win combination for it to last. And all parties have enjoyed significant improvements in the network, significant cost savings opportunity. And that's why this collaboration has lasted up until today.

您提出的最後一個問題與聯盟有關。對他們來說，我們在 2018 年與馬士基和地中海航運建立的合作關係對我們極為有利，但順便說一句，這不僅對我們有利。我認為這對我們的合作夥伴也非常有益，這在合作中非常重要。要持久，就必須形成雙贏的局面。各方都享受到了網路的顯著改善和成本的大幅節約。這也是為什麼這次合作能夠持續到今天。

It is -- for us, we continue to always keep on evaluating our options in terms of partnering with an alliance or with a liner because on top of our partnership with the 2M on the trans-Pacific trade, we also have a partnership agreement or VSA agreement, Vessel Sharing Agreement with Maersk and MSC, by the way, separately from those trade lanes where we operate with the 2M, that we operate with the 2M. Same goals on the intra-Asia region where we partner with a lot of also a smaller shipping there.

對於我們來說，我們始終在與聯盟或班輪公司合作方面不斷評估我們的選擇，因為除了與 2M 在跨太平洋貿易上的合作之外，我們還與馬士基和 MSC 簽訂了合作協議或 VSA 協議，即船舶共享協議，順便說一下，除了我們與 2M 合作運營的貿易航線外，我們還與 2M 合作。我們在亞洲地區也與許多小型航運公司有著相同的目標。

So this dynamic of sharing space at the end of the day and sharing operating capacity is a feature, I think, of our industry, which is -- and has brought a lot of benefits to the liners. And at the end of the day, I think a lot of benefit to the end customer as well, has allowed for the shipping industry to deliver improved input service at a lower cost.

因此，我認為，最終共享空間和共享營運能力的動態是我們行業的一個特點，它為班輪公司帶來了許多好處。最後，我認為最終客戶也受益匪淺，航運業因此能夠以更低的成本提供更優質的投入服務。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q&A session and today's conference call. You may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節和今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開電話。感謝您的加入，祝您有個愉快的一天。再見。