Zillow Group Inc (Z) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Zillow Group Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Zillow 集團 2019 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to RJ Jones, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 RJ Jones。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Zillow Group's Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2019 年第二季財務業績電話會議。

Joining me today to discuss our results are Zillow Group's Cofounder and CEO, Rich Barton; CFO, Allen Parker; Zillow Brand President and Co-Head of Zillow Offers, Jeremy Wacksman; and President of Media and Marketplaces, Greg Schwartz.

今天與我一起討論我們成果的是 Zillow Group 共同創辦人兼執行長 Rich Barton；財務長艾倫·帕克； Zillow 品牌總裁兼 Zillow Offers 共同主管 Jeremy Wacksman；以及媒體和市場總裁 Greg Schwartz。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance, operations and events.

在電話會議期間，我們將就未來的財務表現、營運和事件做出前瞻性陳述。

Although we believe the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee these results.

儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們不能保證這些結果。

We caution you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made on this call.

我們提醒您考慮我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險因素，這可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異。

The date of this call is August 7, 2019, and forward-looking statements made today are based on assumptions as of this date.

本次電話會議的日期為 2019 年 8 月 7 日，今天所做的前瞻性陳述是基於截至該日期的假設。

We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務，除非法律要求。

This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible through the Investor Relations section of Zillow Group's website.

此次電話會議正在網路上播出，您可以透過 Zillow Group 網站的投資者關係部分進行存取。

A recording of the call will be available later today.

今天稍後將提供通話錄音。

During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論公認會計原則和非公認會計原則措施。

We encourage you to read our financial results press release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website as it contains important information about our GAAP and non-GAAP results, including reconciliation of historical non-GAAP financial measures.

我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的財務業績新聞稿，該新聞稿可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到，因為它包含有關我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的重要信息，包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調節。

In our remarks, the non-GAAP financial measure adjusted EBITDA is referred to as EBITDA, which excludes other income, depreciation and amortization expense, share-based compensation expense, acquisition-related costs, interest expense and income taxes.

在我們的評論中，非公認會計準則財務指標調整後的 EBITDA 稱為 EBITDA，其中不包括其他收入、折舊和攤提費用、股權激勵費用、收購相關成本、利息費用和所得稅。

We have posted our quarterly shareholder letter and financial tables on our Investor Relations website.

我們已在投資者關係網站上發布了季度股東信和財務表格。

We will open the call with brief remarks, followed by live Q&A.

我們將以簡短的演講開始電話會議，然後進行現場問答。

I will now turn the call over to Rich.

我現在將把電話轉給里奇。

Thanks, RJ.

謝謝，RJ。

Greetings, everyone.

大家好。

Thanks for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

A few weeks ago, my wife and daughter were in DC, and their trip happened to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing.

幾週前，我的妻子和女兒在華盛頓，他們的旅行恰逢阿波羅 11 號登月 50 週年。

They strolled out onto the mall that evening and discovered that the whole 555 feet of Washington Monument was being used as a screen for projecting images and video from that historic day.

那天晚上，他們漫步到購物中心，發現整個 555 英尺的華盛頓紀念碑都被用作螢幕，投射那歷史性一天的圖像和影片。

Tens of thousands of people were watching.

數萬人在觀看。

The pictures they texted me were a reminder of what wondrous goals we humans can achieve through cooperation, cleverness and big dreams.

他們傳簡訊給我的照片提醒我，我們人類可以透過合作、聰明和遠大的夢想來實現多麼奇妙的目標。

In our own slightly more mundane way, we at Zillow Group are dreaming about our own moon landing.

Zillow Group 以我們自己稍微平凡的方式夢想著我們自己的登月。

We're in the early stages of a bold expansion from solely a residential real estate media company into the trillion-dollar TAM opportunity of streamlining and enabling the real estate transaction itself.

我們正處於大膽擴張的早期階段，從單純的住宅房地產媒體公司轉向簡化和支持房地產交易本身的價值數萬億美元的 TAM 機會。

It would be hard to find a more complicated snarl of a consumer experience than selling and buying a home and all of the messy swirls around that transaction.

很難找到比買賣房屋以及圍繞交易的所有混亂漩渦更複雜的消費者體驗了。

We are finally bringing modern technology to this giant business, and the possibilities and our progress are exciting.

我們終於將現代科技引進這個龐大的企業，可能性和我們的進步令人興奮。

There are many increasingly coordinated efforts underway across the company to drive this expansion, but the big new thing is Zillow Offers.

為了推動這一擴張，整個公司正在進行許多日益協調一致的努力，但最大的新事物是 Zillow Offers。

July marked the 1 year anniversary of when we sold our first Zillow-owned home, and I'm really pleased to share today that we reported nearly $250 million in revenue for our Homes segment in Q2.

7 月是我們出售第一套 Zillow 擁有的房屋一周年紀念日，今天我非常高興地與大家分享，我們報告第二季度房屋部門的收入接近 2.5 億美元。

I want to commend our whole team, not just the Zillow Offers team, on going from 0 to $1 billion run rate -- to a $1 billion a year run rate in revenue just in 1 year.

我要讚揚我們整個團隊，而不僅僅是 Zillow Offers 團隊，他們在一年內將收入從 0 提升到 10 億美元，達到每年 10 億美元。

The demand signal we are seeing for Zillow Offers continues to impress us.

我們看到的 Zillow Offers 的需求訊號繼續給我們留下深刻的印象。

During the quarter, requests from sellers to receive a cash offer nearly doubled to almost 70,000.

本季度，賣家收到現金報價的請求幾乎翻了一番，達到近 7 萬個。

In the same period, we purchased more than 1,500 homes, up 71% from Q1.

同期，我們購買了超過 1,500 套房屋，比第一季成長 71%。

And we sold close to 800 homes, nearly twice the number of homes as last quarter and more than 4x what we sold in all of 2018.

我們售出了近 800 套房屋，幾乎是上季房屋數量的兩倍，是 2018 年全年銷售量的 4 倍以上。

In Q2, we stepped on the gas, launching 7 markets, a rate that we plan to match in Q3.

在第二季度，我們加大了力度，推出了 7 個市場，我們計劃在第三季度跟進這一速度。

On Monday, we launched Nashville, bringing our total live Zillow Offers markets to 15, giving another group of consumers a new way to sell their home without hassle and uncertainty.

週一，我們推出了納許維爾，使我們的即時 Zillow Offers 市場總數達到 15 個，為另一群消費者提供了一種無需麻煩和不確定性即可出售房屋的新方式。

We're also increasing the number of markets we expect to be in to 26, adding Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Oklahoma City and Tucson to our plans by early to mid-2020.

我們還將預計進入的市場數量增加到 26 個，並在 2020 年初至中期之前將傑克遜維爾、辛辛那提、俄克拉荷馬城和圖森納入我們的計劃中。

With every new market, our team learns and applies the insights lessons and data to move faster and gain efficiencies as we scale.

對於每一個新市場，我們的團隊都會學習並應用洞察課程和數據，以便隨著我們的規模擴大，更快地發展並提高效率。

In addition to participating directly in market-making with Zillow Offers, we are pushing down funnel towards the transaction in our Premier Agent business.

除了透過 Zillow Offers 直接參與做市外，我們還在高級代理商業務中推動交易的漏斗。

We are transitioning our lead generation model into one built on partnerships in which we deliver high-touch customer service and seamless transactions where success is shared and mutually rewarded.

我們正在將潛在客戶開發模式轉變為基於合作夥伴關係的模式，在這種模式中，我們提供高接觸度的客戶服務和無縫交易，共享成功並相互獎勵。

The partnerships we're building with local brokers and agent teams in connection with Zillow Offers reflect the goodness that comes from aligning the Zillow customer with the highest-performing and client-focused professionals in every market.

我們與當地經紀商和代理商團隊就 Zillow Offers 建立的合作夥伴關係反映了將 Zillow 客戶與每個市場中表現最佳、以客戶為中心的專業人士結合起來所帶來的好處。

We are applying these lessons to the future of Premier Agent.

我們正在將這些經驗教訓應用於 Premier Agent 的未來。

During our Q1 call, we announced plans to expand our Premier Agent Flex model to ZIP Codes in Connecticut and Colorado.

在第一季電話會議中，我們宣布計劃將 Premier Agent Flex 模式擴展到康乃狄克州和科羅拉多州的郵遞區號。

Under Flex, agents pay no upfront costs and only pay us a little success fee when they close a transaction with a Zillow lead.

在 Flex 的支援下，代理商無需支付任何前期費用，只需在透過 Zillow 線索完成交易時向我們支付少量成功費用。

While still early, the signals we are receiving in these initial test markets are favorable.

雖然還為時過早，但我們在這些初步測試市場中收到的訊號是有利的。

Our agents indicate they are receiving quality, high-intent connection, and Zillow consumers report high levels of engagement from their Flex agents.

我們的客服代表表示他們正在獲得高品質、高意圖的聯繫，Zillow 消費者也表示 Flex 客服人員的參與度很高。

Given these positive indicators, we have decided to expand the Flex test in Q4 to 2 of our established Zillow Offers markets: Phoenix and Atlanta.

鑑於這些積極的指標，我們決定將第四季的 Flex 測試擴展到我們已建立的 Zillow Offers 市場的 2 個：菲尼克斯和亞特蘭大。

We believe testing in these markets will allow us to increase our insights and learnings while also experimenting with other lead monetization programs that can work in conjunction with Zillow Offers and Premier Agent.

我們相信，在這些市場中進行測試將使我們能夠增加我們的見解和學習，同時還可以嘗試其他可與 Zillow Offers 和 Premier Agent 結合使用的領先貨幣化計劃。

The evolution of our businesses and industry partnerships coincides with the tectonic shift in the industry at large driven by technology.

我們的業務和產業合作夥伴關係的發展與技術驅動下的整個產業的結構性轉變是一致的。

Our optimal partners are the best of the best agents who combine their local expertise and professional smarts with advanced proprietary Zillow technology to anticipate and deliver on the high expectation of our shared customers in today's on-demand, always-on world.

我們的最佳合作夥伴是最好的代理商中的最好的，他們將當地的專業知識和專業智慧與先進的Zillow 專有技術相結合，在當今按需、永遠在線的世界中預測並滿足我們共同客戶的高期望。

We're already moving in this direction.

我們已經在朝這個方向前進了。

We're using data and customer feedback to select our broker partners in Zillow Offers markets, and our machine learning algorithms are already helping to identify the Flex agents most likely to close deals with the highest satisfaction levels.

我們正在使用數據和客戶回饋來選擇 Zillow Offers 市場中的經紀商合作夥伴，我們的機器學習演算法已經在幫助識別最有可能以最高滿意度完成交易的 Flex 代理商。

The future of these partnerships is key to our seamless real estate transaction experience vision.

這些合作關係的未來是我們無縫房地產交易體驗願景的關鍵。

As you'll note in our quarterly letter, the Q4 Flex expansion into Zillow Offers markets is expected to shift some revenue and EBITDA from 2019 into future periods, which Allen will discuss in more detail.

正如您在我們的季度信函中註意到的那樣，第四季度 Flex 向 Zillow Offers 市場的擴張預計將 2019 年的部分收入和 EBITDA 轉移到未來時期，Allen 將對此進行更詳細的討論。

We confidently make these short-term trade-offs to accelerate our learnings about the long-term potential of Flex, but it's still early.

我們自信地做出這些短期權衡，以加速我們對 Flex 長期潛力的了解，但現在還為時過早。

We're spending this amount of time talking about Flex with you because it is part of our strategic move towards the transaction and because it will affect revenue recognition and some expense recognitions.

我們花這麼多時間與您討論 Flex，因為它是我們交易策略舉措的一部分，並且因為它將影響收入確認和一些費用確認。

Our core Premier Agent business continues to perform well.

我們的核心高級代理業務持續表現良好。

We're seeing positive feedback from agents and consumers on the new lead validation and distribution process, which is driving more connection and higher customer satisfaction.

我們看到代理商和消費者對新的潛在客戶驗證和分配流程的正面回饋，這推動了更多的聯繫和更高的客戶滿意度。

Let me switch gears to Mortgages.

讓我切換到抵押貸款。

It's been less than a year since we acquired Mortgage Lenders of America, which we rebranded as Zillow Home Loans during Q2.

距離我們收購 Mortgage Lenders of America 還不到一年，我們在第二季將其更名為 Zillow Home Loans。

Our strong Q2 performance reflects our fulfillment of the pipeline that originated on the legacy MLOA platform.

我們第二季的強勁表現反映了我們對源自傳統 MLOA 平台的管道的履行。

As we transition from MLOA to Zillow Home Loans, we are building new proprietary technology to streamline and integrate home loans as our payments platform for Zillow Offers.

隨著我們從 MLOA 過渡到 Zillow Home Loans，我們正在建立新的專有技術來簡化和整合房屋貸款，作為我們的 Zillow Offers 支付平台。

We're already testing the initial version of our digital mortgage software, but the full rollout is taking a bit longer than expected.

我們已經在測試數位抵押軟體的初始版本，但全面推出所需的時間比預期要長一些。

As we continue to build out the test -- to build out and test our own platform, we've slowed loan officer hiring until we feel we have the technology and operational infrastructure foundation that we need to scale, which you'll see reflected in our updated outlook.

隨著我們繼續建立測試——建立和測試我們自己的平台，我們放慢了信貸員的招募速度，直到我們認為我們擁有了需要擴展的技術和營運基礎設施基礎，這一點您將在我們更新的展望。

This in no way affects our excitement about the future of this segment.

這絲毫不會影響我們對這領域未來的興奮。

Loan originations are an essential part of our ability to deliver an integrated transaction experience for our customers.

貸款發放是我們為客戶提供全面交易體驗能力的重要組成部分。

We're making solid progress, and the long-term expectations for our Zillow Home Loans business and other transaction-related adjacencies remains unchanged.

我們正在取得紮實的進展，對 Zillow 房屋貸款業務和其他交易相關業務的長期預期保持不變。

So we are on our way with our own exciting little moon mission to transform, streamline and integrate the shelter transaction.

因此，我們正在執行我們自己令人興奮的小月球任務，以改造、簡化和整合庇護所交易。

Zillow is in a hard-earned but lucky position relative to this massive opportunity.

相對於這個巨大的機會，Zillow 處於一個來之不易但幸運的位置。

No other company in real estate comes close to our brand awareness, our audience size, technology, data science, industry partnerships and operational know-how to get it done.

沒有其他房地產公司能與我們的品牌知名度、受眾規模、技術、數據科學、行業合作夥伴關係以及實現目標的營運知識相提並論。

No other company has all of the vertical businesses required to provide consumers with a seamless integrated transaction experience woven together with technology and operations.

沒有其他公司擁有為消費者提供與技術和營運交織在一起的無縫整合交易體驗所需的所有垂直業務。

We have the best team of adventurers.

我們擁有最優秀的冒險家團隊。

And every day, we add people to the mission with more smarts and new skills to enable success.

每一天，我們都在為我們的使命增添更多智慧和新技能的人員，以實現成功。

We are also lucky to have a group of supporters on the ground, you, our investors, who support and believe in the dream but who hold us accountable.

我們也很幸運有一群支持者，你們，我們的投資者，他們支持並相信我們的夢想，但也讓我們承擔責任。

We treat your investment in our team and mission with respect, and thank you for your support.

我們尊重您對我們團隊和使命的投資，並感謝您的支持。

I'm now going to turn the microphone over to Allen.

現在我要把麥克風交給艾倫。

Thanks, Rich.

謝謝，里奇。

I'm going to quickly summarize a few key financial results.

我將快速總結一些關鍵的財務表現。

Overall, we met or exceeded our revenue expectations for all segments and EBITDA was generally in line with our expectation for each segment.

總體而言，我們達到或超越了我們對所有細分市場的收入預期，並且 EBITDA 總體上符合我們對每個細分市場的預期。

In Q2, we reported revenue of nearly $600 million.

第二季度，我們的營收接近 6 億美元。

That's up 84% year-over-year and exceeded the high end of our outlook.

年比成長 84%，超出了我們預期的上限。

Much of this growth in revenue was driven by our Homes segment, which was nearly $250 million, growing 94% sequentially and, as Rich noted, is continuing to outperform expectations.

營收成長大部分是由我們的住宅業務推動的，該業務收入近 2.5 億美元，環比增長 94%，正如 Rich 指出的那樣，繼續超出預期。

Internet, Media & Technology, or IMT, segment revenue grew 6% year-over-year to nearly $324 million and exceeded our Q2 guidance range.

網路、媒體和科技（IMT）部門營收年增 6%，達到近 3.24 億美元，超出了我們第二季的指導範圍。

Premier Agent revenue was in line with our expectations at $232 million, up 50 basis points compared to a very strong Q2 2018.

Premier Agent 營收達到 2.32 億美元，符合我們的預期，與 2018 年第二季的強勁表現相比，成長了 50 個基點。

Before we take your questions, I want to take a moment to provide some comments on our outlook and highlight one item you'll see in our results this quarter as well as update you on my priorities as CFO.

在回答您的問題之前，我想花點時間對我們的前景發表一些評論，並重點介紹您將在本季度業績中看到的一個項目，並向您介紹我作為首席財務官的優先事項的最新情況。

I'll start with the outlook.

我將從展望開始。

Zillow Offers momentum is expected to continue.

Zillow 優惠勢頭預計將持續。

Demand for this service from consumers is strong, and we have accelerated our rollout into new markets throughout the year.

消費者對這項服務的需求很強勁，我們全年都在加快向新市場的推出。

We are anticipating Homes segment revenue to grow 44% sequentially at the midpoint of the guidance range for Q3.

我們預計家庭部門收入將按第三季指導範圍的中點連續成長 44%。

We have updated our IMT and Premier Agent full year 2019 revenue guidance ranges.

我們更新了 IMT 和 Premier Agent 2019 年全年收入指引範圍。

At the midpoint of the guidance range, we expect IMT revenue growth of 5% in 2019 and Premier Agent revenue growth of 1% for the year.

在指導範圍的中點，我們預計 2019 年 IMT 營收將成長 5%，Premier Agent 營收將成長 1%。

Our changes in outlook are primarily driven by the expected impact of our decision to expand the Flex test.

我們前景的變化主要是由於我們決定擴大 Flex 測試的預期影響。

This means that a portion of previously expected Premier Agent revenue for markets where we are expanding our test is now expected to shift from Q4 into future periods to correspond with closing of Zillow attributed transactions.

這意味著，我們正在擴大測試的市場的部分先前預期的高級代理收入現在預計將從第四季度轉移到未來時期，以與 Zillow 歸因交易的結束相對應。

The impact of the Flex test on Q3 and full year 2019 EBITDA in our IMT segment is twofold: first, flow-through to EBITDA from a portion of Premier Agent revenue that will shift from Q4 into future periods, as I just described; second, we expect to recognize additional commission expense in Q3 and full year 2019 due to the shortened estimated life related to the existing capitalized sales commissions.

Flex 測試對我們IMT 部門的第三季和2019 年全年EBITDA 有雙重影響：首先，正如我剛才所描述的，Premier Agent 收入的一部分將轉移到EBITDA，這些收入將從第四季度轉移到未來時期；其次，由於與現有資本化銷售佣金相關的預期壽命縮短，我們預計將在第三季和 2019 年全年確認額外的佣金費用。

Additional details of the accounting treatments related to Flex are included in our shareholder letter.

與 Flex 相關的會計處理的更多詳細資訊包含在我們的股東信中。

These adjustments do not have any reflection on the health of our Premier Agent marketplace, which has stabilized.

這些調整對我們已經穩定下來的高級代理商市場的健康狀況沒有任何影響。

As Rich mentioned, some of the integration of Zillow Home Loans and development of our mortgage software will require more time than we originally anticipated, so we had slowed the pace of hiring loan officers until we have the operations and infrastructure in place to support scaling.

正如 Rich 所提到的，Zillow Home Loans 的一些整合和抵押軟體的開發將需要比我們最初預期更多的時間，因此我們放慢了招募信貸員的步伐，直到我們擁有支援擴展的營運和基礎設施。

As a result, we've adjusted our full year outlook accordingly.

因此，我們相應調整了全年展望。

These changes position us well for 2020.

這些變化為我們 2020 年的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

Now I'd like to discuss an item that impacted the Homes segment cost of revenue included in our 2Q -- our Q2 results.

現在我想討論一個影響我們第二季業績中家庭部門收入成本的項目。

We recorded an inventory valuation adjustment for an immaterial amount during the quarter.

我們在本季記錄了一筆微不足道的庫存估值調整。

This adjustment represented less than 1% of our inventory balance at period end and was the primary driver of the increase in our Homes segment cost of revenue as a percentage of revenue in Q2 compared to Q1.

這項調整占我們期末庫存餘額的不到 1%，是第二季住宅部門收入成本佔收入百分比較第一季增加的主要推動因素。

Like any company that maintains physical inventory, we expect to incur these adjustments going forward as a regular course of business.

與任何擁有實體庫存的公司一樣，我們預計這些調整將作為常規業務進行。

This is anticipated as part of managing our portfolio of homes and the adjustment as well within our expectations.

預計這是管理我們的房屋組合的一部分，並且調整也在我們的預期之內。

As of the end of Q2, only about 4% of homes held in our inventory were greater than 60 days past their underwritten hold time with the vast majority of those homes under contract to be sold.

截至第二季末，我們庫存中只有約 4% 的房屋超過其承保持有時間超過 60 天，其中絕大多數房屋已簽訂合約待售。

Finally, during this time of transformation at Zillow Group, my priorities as CFO are clear.

最後，在 Zillow Group 的轉型時期，我作為財務長的優先事項很明確。

I remain focused on establishing processes and mechanisms in support of 3 things: scaling our new businesses; execution within our IMT segment in order to fund investments in our new segments, along with additional growth opportunities; and implementing discretionary cost discipline and operational excellence across the company as we scale.

我仍然專注於建立支援三件事的流程和機制：擴大我們的新業務；在我們的 IMT 部門內執行，以便為我們新部門的投資以及額外的成長機會提供資金；隨著規模的擴大，在整個公司範圍內實施酌情成本紀律和卓越營運。

It's exciting to be in the middle of such a significant evolution both at the company and within the industry.

能夠參與公司和行業內如此重大的變革是令人興奮的。

And as we execute on our strategy to fundamentally change the home transaction for consumers, we are confident our long-term targets remain well within our reach.

當我們執行從根本上改變消費者房屋交易的策略時，我們相信我們的長期目標仍然在我們的能力範圍之內。

With that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

接線員，我們將開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Angela Newell of Macquarie.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自麥格理的 Angela Newell。

It's Ben Schachter.

我是本·沙赫特。

I just wanted to talk -- there's a lot of issues in the near term to discuss, but really let's focus on the long term and the iBuyer market specifically.

我只是想談談——短期內有很多問題需要討論，但實際上讓我們專注於長期和 iBuyer 市場。

I just want to understand how you're framing the long-term TAM, specifically for the marketplace of buying and selling homes and how that's changed or evolved over time.

我只是想了解您如何制定長期 TAM，特別是針對房屋買賣市場，以及它如何隨著時間的推移而變化或演變。

And then related to that, how are you thinking about the size of the long-term TAM for all these ancillary businesses, mortgage, title, insurance, et cetera?

與此相關的是，您如何考慮所有這些輔助業務（抵押貸款、產權、保險等）的長期 TAM 規模？

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I'll take that one.

我會接受那個。

I mean long term at scale, we think this is a really, really big market, and that's why we're investing so aggressively.

我的意思是從長期來看，我們認為這是一個非常非常大的市場，這就是我們如此積極投資的原因。

That's why we're accelerating our market rollouts we've announced to new markets.

這就是為什麼我們正在加速我們已宣布的新市場的市場推廣。

I think our buy box, as we talked about today, would cover half the homes in the country around if we were available everywhere, and we seek to reach and expand the types of homes we buy over time.

我認為，正如我們今天談到的，如果我們隨處可見，我們的購買箱將覆蓋全國一半的房屋，並且隨著時間的推移，我們力求覆蓋並擴大我們購買的房屋類型。

And ultimately, at scale, when you're offering something like Zillow Offers, this really should be the way every homeowner starts to think about selling, not just requesting an offer from us, but eventually looking at a standing offer we can make to them as a way to think about their selling options whether with us or not.

最終，在規模上，當您提供Zillow Offers 之類的產品時，這確實應該成為每個房主開始考慮出售的方式，而不僅僅是向我們請求報價，而是最終考慮我們可以向他們提供的長期報價作為考慮他們是否與我們合作的銷售選擇的一種方式。

So we've given a 3- to 5-year target.

所以我們給了一個3到5年的目標。

That's around 60,000 transactions a year run rate.

這相當於每年約 6 萬筆交易。

That's a $20 billion business.

這是一項價值 200 億美元的業務。

That's just 1% of the market transactions today.

這僅佔當今市場交易的 1%。

We clearly see the opportunity as far, far bigger than that.

我們清楚地看到機會遠比這大得多。

That's a step along the way.

這是一路上的一步。

And when we're able to deliver a service like this to this consumer, that opens up on top of the Zillow Offers business all these adjacent opportunities.

當我們能夠向該消費者提供這樣的服務時，就會在 Zillow Offers 業務之上開闢所有這些相鄰的機會。

So mortgage and title and escrow inside the transaction itself as well as the knock-on services that you might get around the transaction.

因此，交易本身內部的抵押、所有權和託管，以及您可能在交易中獲得的連鎖服務。

Our next question comes from John Campbell of Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的約翰坎貝爾。

Just wanted to touch back on the Flex Pricing.

只是想回顧一下彈性定價。

We've obviously -- I think we've heard a lot of positive feedback from agents just kind of doing the pilots.

顯然，我認為我們已經從正在進行試點的代理商那裡聽到了很多積極的回饋。

That seems like a pretty big opportunity for you guys, so we're happy to see you kind of lean on it.

這對你們來說似乎是一個相當大的機會，所以我們很高興看到你們有點依賴它。

But my question, first, could you guys talk a little bit more about the revenue impact?

但我的問題是，首先，你們能多談談收入影響嗎？

How is that accounted for in the backlog?

這在積壓訂單中是如何計算的？

And then any sense for the kind of estimated conversion rates in early stages of the pilots?

那麼試點早期階段的估計轉換率有什麼意義嗎？

And then secondly, are you guys starting to kind of mix in any of the sell side or listing leads into Flex yet?

其次，你們是否開始將任何賣方或上市線索混合到 Flex 中？

It's Greg.

是格雷格。

I'll kick that off -- the business part of that, and then Allen will take you through the modeling.

我將開始討論業務部分，然後艾倫將帶您完成建模。

So Flex, you're right, is looking pretty promising.

所以 Flex，你是對的，看起來很有前途。

We've got some leading indicators, right?

我們有一些領先指標，對嗎？

So it takes some time to mature a real estate lead.

因此，房地產行業的領先地位需要一些時間才能成熟。

So the leading indicators you're asking about that we're getting through here is, first, customer satisfaction.

因此，您所詢問的我們正在經歷的領先指標首先是客戶滿意度。

Our consumers are really pleased with the experiences they're getting by working with these Premier Agents.

我們的消費者對與這些優質代理商合作所獲得的體驗感到非常滿意。

That's increasing in our Flex program.

我們的 Flex 計劃正在不斷增加。

The second is the important appointment rate, do consumers actually want to meet and do they successfully meet with the real estate agents, the Premier Agents that we match them to.

第二個是重要的預約率，消費者是否真的想要會面，以及他們是否成功與房地產經紀人（我們為他們匹配的高級經紀人）會面。

That's an important leading indicator to downstream transactions.

這是下游交易的重要先行指標。

That's looking really positive in these 2-state test we're doing right now in Connecticut and in a smaller of Colorado.

在我們目前在康乃狄克州和科羅拉多州較小的兩個州進行的測試中，這看起來非常積極。

So that's looking pretty good.

所以這看起來相當不錯。

And then are we getting our Premier Agents to engage in these.

然後我們讓我們的高級代理商參與這些工作。

And we measure that by -- are they touching and interacting with these consumer connections in our app.

我們透過——他們是否在我們的應用程式中與這些消費者聯繫進行接觸和互動來衡量這一點。

And nearly every one of these connections is being touched in our Premier Agent app, and that is a very unique thing for real estate.

我們的 Premier Agent 應用程式幾乎觸及了所有這些聯繫，這對於房地產來說是一件非常獨特的事情。

So, so far, the leading indicators are really good from these small-scale tests, and I'll let Allen talk about...

所以，到目前為止，這些小規模測試的領先指標確實非常好，我將讓艾倫談談...

Did you talk about some stat, Greg?

格雷格，你談論過一些統計數據嗎？

I did.

我做到了。

Okay.

好的。

And this is Allen Parker.

這是艾倫·帕克。

With respect to the impact on revenue, as we called out in the shareholder letter, the impact of accelerator increasing the number of tests in the Phoenix and Atlanta area has the effect of taking revenue we previously thought we would recognize in Q4 and pushing that out into future periods.

關於對收入的影響，正如我們在股東信中指出的那樣，加速器增加菲尼克斯和亞特蘭大地區測試數量的影響會導致我們之前認為會在第四季度確認的收入並被推遲進入未來時期。

So our outlook now reflects the impact of increasing the size of our Flex testing.

因此，我們的前景現在反映了增加 Flex 測試規模的影響。

And so when you think about that range, it's the primary -- it's the significant change -- a primary change to our revenue outlook is related to this Flex testing.

因此，當你考慮這個範圍時，這是主要的——這是重大的變化——我們收入前景的主要變化與這次 Flex 測試有關。

And not only does it affect revenue as we push out from Q4 to future periods, that revenue falls through to EBITDA.

當我們從第四季度推遲到未來時期時，它不僅會影響收入，而且該收入也計入 EBITDA。

And then we also have to accelerate -- our capitalized sales commission costs accelerate the amortization, which has an impact of increasing costs in Q3 and the rest of 2019 for those 2 new markets.

然後我們還必須加速——我們的資本化銷售佣金成本加速了攤銷，這對這兩個新市場的第三季和 2019 年剩餘時間的成本增加產生了影響。

This is Rich.

這是里奇。

It's -- the accounting for this is unfortunate, but not why we're making these decisions.

對此的解釋是不幸的，但這不是我們做出這些決定的原因。

We're making these decisions because this is a better customer experience, and it's a better -- at least in our testing so far, it looks to be a better business model.

我們做出這些決定是因為這是更好的客戶體驗，而且是更好的——至少在我們迄今為止的測試中，它看起來是一個更好的商業模式。

And so we are making these decisions because we think it's the right thing for customers and for the business for the long term.

因此，我們做出這些決定是因為我們認為這對客戶和企業的長期發展都是正確的。

Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬克‧馬哈尼。

This is Mike Chen on for Mark.

我是馬克陳 (Mike Chen)。

I was just wondering if you could expand a little bit about Flex in Phoenix and Atlanta.

我只是想知道您是否可以詳細介紹一下菲尼克斯和亞特蘭大的 Flex。

In the shareholder letter, you mentioned about the lead monetization opportunities and programs that you're working on.

在股東信中，您提到了您正在進行的主要貨幣化機會和計劃。

So any color on how that dynamic would work between Zillow Offers and Premier Agent?

那麼，對於 Zillow Offers 和 Premier Agent 之間的這種動態如何運作，有什麼看法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So you're right, we're optimizing Phoenix and we're optimizing to another really strong Zillow Offers market, of course, Atlanta.

所以你是對的，我們正在優化菲尼克斯，我們正在優化另一個非常強大的 Zillow Offers 市場，當然還有亞特蘭大。

There's a few things that it allows us to do.

它允許我們做一些事情。

It allows us to experiment with additional lead types and lead distribution.

它使我們能夠嘗試其他引線類型和引線分佈。

And the lead distribution part is super important.

潛在客戶分配部分非常重要。

We just launched what we're calling the performance pacing algorithm, the PPA.

我們剛剛推出了我們所謂的效能調步演算法（PPA）。

And what that is, is using an autonomous model to make optimal matches between buyers and real estate agents that are able at that moment and familiar with that particular type of home in that particular area.

那就是使用自主模型在買家和房地產經紀人之間進行最佳匹配，這些經紀人當時有能力並熟悉該特定區域的特定類型的房屋。

And we expect to see some pretty significant conversion gains from that.

我們預計會從中看到一些相當顯著的轉換效益。

As to -- the quality of those agents factors into this algorithm, too.

至於——這些代理的品質也影響到這個演算法。

Yes.

是的。

You bet.

你打賭。

The algorithm is driven by expertise in the market, past transaction history and then customer experience scores, CSAT scores, and then if they're engaged at that moment and accessible to us.

該演算法由市場專業知識、過去的交易歷史、客戶體驗分數、CSAT 分數以及他們當時是否參與並可供我們訪問來驅動。

So we're going to see some pretty awesome wins in customer experience, which we believe will throw -- flow through to gains in transaction volume and conversion rates.

因此，我們將看到客戶體驗方面取得一些相當出色的勝利，我們相信這將帶來交易量和轉換率的成長。

Again, the test we're doing in a few smaller metros, in Connecticut and Colorado, are low scale.

同樣，我們在康乃狄克州和科羅拉多州的一些較小的城市進行的測試規模較小。

That's the reason why we're going to the 2 strong Zillow Offers markets, so we can get a big strong signal to work off of.

這就是為什麼我們要去 2 個強大的 Zillow Offers 市場，這樣我們就可以獲得一個強大的訊號來發揮作用。

And we're feeling pretty good.

我們感覺很好。

Our next question comes from Ryan McKeveny of Zelman.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman 的 Ryan McKeveny。

So I have a question on the valuation adjustment inventory.

所以我有一個關於估值調整庫存的問題。

And I guess just thinking about the kind of possible adjustments going forward, can you talk about that process of kind of managing so-called tail or the relative underperformers in inventory, I guess those homes that are kind of sitting longer than the underwritten hold times.

我想，只要考慮一下未來可能進行的調整，你能談談管理所謂的尾部或庫存中相對錶現不佳的房屋的過程嗎？我猜那些房屋的擱置時間比承保的持有時間長。

And outside of just kind of commentary on that process that you look at, I'm curious as you look at the finished goods inventory on the balance sheets, so I think it was $379 million in the Q, is there a way to break apart what percent of that was acquired maybe in 1Q '19 versus 2Q '19 just to have kind of a better sense of that aging process within the inventory, I thought that would be very helpful.

除了您所看到的流程的評論之外，當您查看資產負債表上的成品庫存時，我很好奇，所以我認為 Q 中的庫存為 3.79 億美元，有沒有辦法分解其中的百分比可能是在19 年第一季與19 年第二季購買的，只是為了更好地了解庫存中的老化過程，我認為這會非常有幫助。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I'll take that.

我會接受的。

So I mean a couple things.

所以我的意思是幾件事。

You're right, it's a way to think about the tail, and it's a good marker of how we think about pricing the portfolio.

你是對的，這是一種思考尾部的方式，它是我們如何考慮投資組合定價的一個很好的標誌。

As we price, there's going to be distribution of homes in each market and across Zillow Offers.

當我們定價時，每個市場和 Zillow Offers 中的房屋都會進行分配。

Some are going to outperform in the head.

有些人會在腦中表現出色。

Some are going to take a little longer in the tail.

有些尾部需要更長的時間。

And so you'll see the value adjustment as a reflection of that.

因此，您會看到價值調整反映了這一點。

Allen gave you a stat.

艾倫給了你一個統計數據。

Less than 4% of our inventory is late by 60 days as a kind of way to think about the sizing of it.

作為考慮庫存規模的一種方式，我們的庫存只有不到 4% 延遲了 60 天。

That's probably the best way for you to actually think about the age, too.

這也可能是您真正考慮年齡的最佳方式。

We're not breaking out the age of our inventory by segment -- or sorry, by market or by time frame.

我們不會按細分市場或市場或時間範圍來細分庫存的年齡。

Okay.

好的。

And I guess the follow-up, I mean -- so the 60 days past underwritten hold time, of the 4%, I mean is there a way to frame what percent is kind of any time late relative to the hold period?

我猜想後續行動，我的意思是，在 4% 的承保持有時間過去 60 天，我的意思是，有沒有辦法確定相對於持有期而言，任何時間遲到的百分比是多少？

Or maybe said another way, what is the average underwritten hold period?

或者換句話說，平均承保持有期間是多少？

Yes.

是的。

I mean the best way to think about it is it's going to vary by market by price point.

我的意思是，最好的思考方式是它會因市場和價格點而異。

That's why relative to underwriting, this is probably the cleanest metric and thinking about the value adjustment as a reflection of any changes to the inventory on balance is the way we'll reflect it.

這就是為什麼相對於承保而言，這可能是最乾淨的指標，並將價值調整視為庫存平衡變化的反映，這就是我們反映它的方式。

Our underwriting will have a unique target of appreciation cost and hold time for each home.

我們的承保將對每套房屋的增值成本和持有時間設定獨特的目標。

And then the pricing will balance the portfolio in a market and across the market to sell for our financial performance results.

然後定價將平衡市場和整個市場的投資組合，以出售我們的財務表現結果。

So each home is unique in what it's expected to do and then obviously where we see it flow through and actually do.

因此，每個家庭的預期功能以及我們所看到的和實際執行的功能都是獨一無二的。

Our next question comes from Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的勞埃德·沃爾姆斯利。

This is Greg Vlahakis on for Lloyd.

我是勞埃德 (Lloyd) 的格雷格·弗拉哈基斯 (Greg Vlahakis)。

Two if I may.

如果可以的話，兩個。

So I think Allen had mentioned that a majority of the Premier Agent guide down was attributed to the Flex.

所以我認為艾倫提到大部分高級代理商指南都歸功於 Flex。

But just curious, what were some of the other factors that were the cause there?

但只是好奇，造成這種情況的其他因素是什麼？

And then I guess continuing on Flex, since it seems like things are going better than expectations and it's a better business decision, how should we think about this in the context of the long-term IMT guide that you provided?

然後我想繼續使用 Flex，因為事情似乎比預期進展得更好，而且這是一個更好的業務決策，我們應該如何在您提供的長期 IMT 指南的背景下考慮這一點？

And I guess if things are going better than expected, why not raise this long-term guide for IMT?

我想如果事情進展得比預期好，為什麼不提出這個 IMT 長期指南呢？

Yes.

是的。

So with respect to the -- we took the top end down from [9 30 to 9 15].

因此，關於 - 我們將頂端從 [9 30 降低到 9 15]。

As I mentioned, significantly all of that was due to the revenue effect of Flex and moving Q4 into future periods.

正如我所提到的，這一切很大程度上都是由於 Flex 的收入影響以及將第四季度移至未來時期。

So there's not really much of anything to call out there.

所以實際上沒有什麼好說的。

All of the key input metrics for the Premier Agent business continue to stabilize, and we're excited about that.

高級代理業務的所有關鍵輸入指標繼續穩定，我們對此感到興奮。

And so there's no real story other than Flex with respect to Premier Agent and IMT.

因此，除了 Flex 之外，關於 Premier Agent 和 IMT 沒有任何真實的故事。

And I'm sorry, the second part of your question?

抱歉，你問題的第二部分？

Long term, how does it affect our long-term -- how do we feel about the IMT through the...

從長遠來看，它對我們的長期影響如何——我們對 IMT 的感受如何…

Yes.

是的。

So 3- to 5-year targets remain -- we still feel very confident, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, that they're well within reach.

因此，3 到 5 年的目標仍然存在——正如我在開場白中提到的，我們仍然非常有信心，這些目標是可以實現的。

Yes.

是的。

We don't think we were -- what was the IMT 3- to 5-year guide, $2 billion.

我們認為 IMT 3 至 5 年指引金額不是 20 億美元。

Yes.

是的。

$2 billion with $600 million of EBITDA.

20 億美元，其中 EBITDA 為 6 億美元。

Yes, it still feels appropriate.

是的，感覺還是適合的。

Our next question comes from Ron Josey of JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券的 Ron Josey。

Just wanted to ask on 2 things, really.

只是想問兩件事，真的。

First on just Premier Agent retention.

首先是保留高級經紀人。

I think you said in the letter return to historic norms.

我想你在信中說要回歸歷史常態。

Can you just update us on how you're doing with acquiring perhaps those agents that might have been lost during the transition last year and then just overall just conversion rates with PA 4?

您能否向我們介紹一下您如何收購去年在轉型期間可能失去的代理商以及 PA 4 的整體轉換率？

And then on Homes, with service fee, I think, in the 7.5% in the quarter, I think for -- that sort of compares to maybe 7% prior.

然後在家庭服務方面，我認為本季的服務費為 7.5%，與之前的 7% 相比。

Can you just talk about what's driving that fee?

您能談談是什麼推動了這筆費用嗎？

I know it's a range, but is it maybe going into newer markets, consumers perhaps willing to pay more for the convenience?

我知道這是一個範圍，但它是否可能進入新的市場，消費者可能願意為便利性支付更多費用？

Any sort of insights on the fee would be helpful.

任何有關費用的見解都會有所幫助。

Yes.

是的。

It's Greg.

是格雷格。

I'll pick up the first half of that.

我將選取前半部。

Yes.

是的。

As we noted on Premier Agent, we're on a forecast, so we returned exactly where we thought we would be now.

正如我們在 Premier Agent 上指出的那樣，我們正在進行預測，因此我們準確地返回了我們認為現在的位置。

So we're pleased about that.

所以我們對此感到高興。

The real driver of this -- and again, the normal retention, we're right on it, is the step we made on connections that the fewer higher-quality connections between these great real estate professionals and consumers that need to be served, that was the big bet we made.

真正的驅動因素——再說一遍，正常的保留，我們是對的，是我們在聯繫上採取的步驟，這些偉大的房地產專業人士和需要服務的消費者之間的高品質聯繫越少，這是我們下的一個大賭注。

And it's flowed through.

並且它已經流過。

Our Premier Agents are now coveting high-quality live connections.

我們的高級代理現在渴望高品質的即時連接。

We're pleased about that.

我們對此感到高興。

The other big bet we made, and both of these are important for our Flex transition, the Best of Zillow.

我們做出的另一個大賭注是 Best of Zillow，這兩個賭注對於我們的 Flex 轉型都很重要。

The Best of Zillow bet was we would make a selective group of the finest real estate professionals found anywhere.

Best of Zillow 的賭注是，我們將挑選出世界各地最優秀的房地產專業人士組成的團隊。

We'd have a measure that's incredibly high scaled.

我們會有一個規模非常高的衡量標準。

Millions and millions of consumer -- elements of consumer feedback now on this thing.

數以百萬計的消費者－消費者對這件事的回饋要素。

And a reminder, Best of Zillow is it's a 5-star rating system that happens at multiple times during the relationship between consumer and professional.

提醒一下，Zillow 的最佳之處是它是一個 5 星評級系統，在消費者和專業人士之間的關係中多次發生。

And we're holding agents -- our Premier Agents to high standards.

我們對代理商—我們的高級代理商保持高標準。

So that's what we implemented and positions us wonderfully for Flex.

這就是我們所實施的，並為 Flex 提供了絕佳的定位。

And that's been our focus to date.

這是我們迄今為止的重點。

On returning customers, these folks come and go based on their lives because these are small business people.

對於回頭客，這些人根據自己的生活來來去去，因為他們都是小企業人士。

And so we've always been pretty consistent once these connections were recognized as valuable with books flowing back to us.

因此，一旦這些聯繫被認為是有價值的，並且書籍流回給我們，我們就一直保持一致。

So we feel pretty good about that.

所以我們對此感覺很好。

But the team is focused on Flex and what's ahead.

但該團隊專注於 Flex 及其未來發展。

Do you want to take the second half of that?

你想接受後半部分嗎？

There's a financial question there.

這裡有一個財務問題。

It's Jeremy.

是傑里米。

I'll get that.

我會明白的。

I mean, yes, it's market and buy box and home mix, so we're getting into more markets, each market and even ZIPs within market and home types have different underwriting inputs, right, from carrying holding costs to taxes and fees, and those will get rolled up into the fees.

我的意思是，是的，這是市場、購買框架和房屋的組合，所以我們正在進入更多的市場，每個市場，甚至市場和房屋類型內的ZIP 都有不同的承保投入，對吧，從持有成本到稅金和費用，以及這些將被匯總到費用中。

So you'll see that vary as we go, especially as we're opening more markets and as we spread.

因此，您會發現隨著我們的發展，情況會發生變化，特別是隨著我們開放更多市場和擴張。

Our next question comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的傑森·赫夫斯坦。

This is Jason Hoffman on for Jason Helfstein.

我是傑森‧霍夫曼 (Jason Hoffman) 代表傑森‧赫夫斯坦 (Jason Helfstein)。

As you're entering all these iBuyer markets, how should we think of inventory and economics for iBuyers trending throughout the rest of the year?

當您進入所有這些 iBuyer 市場時，我們應該如何看待今年剩餘時間 iBuyer 的庫存和經濟趨勢？

We saw a slight uptick from 1Q to 2Q.

我們看到從第一季到第二季略有上升。

But how should we think about that in 3Q and 4Q, if you don't mind?

但如果您不介意的話，我們應該如何在第三季和第四季考慮這一點？

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

So the unit economics we're targeting continues to be the same, so plus or minus 200 basis points return before interest.

因此，我們的單位經濟效益目標仍然相同，因此利息前報酬率為正負 200 個基點。

And so you saw a similar performance between Q1 and Q2 and well within that range, and you'll see us -- we expect to continue to perform at that level.

因此，您看到第一季和第二季之間的表現相似，並且完全在該範圍內，您會看到我們 - 我們希望繼續保持在該水平上的表現。

Yes.

是的。

And this is Allen Parker.

這是艾倫·帕克。

I was going to say in terms of economics overall, we have talked about we expect to see trending improvement in our EBITDA margin as a percent of revenue.

我想說的是，就整體經濟而言，我們已經討論過，我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率佔收入的百分比將呈趨勢性改善。

That may not be linear.

這可能不是線性的。

But if you look at our range, we were at negative 22.7 in Q2, and we have a range of negative 18.9 to negative 23 in Q3 based on our guidance ranges.

但如果你看看我們的範圍，我們在第二季的範圍為負 22.7，根據我們的指導範圍，我們在第三季的範圍為負 18.9 到負 23。

Our next question comes from Jason Deleeuw of Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Jason Deleeuw。

Just wondering on the seller fee, how much of a factor is that on the home seller acceptance rate?

只是想知道賣家費用，這對房屋賣家接受率有多大影響？

And then there's also been more talk about iBuyers offering the Instant Offer and then plus a traditional agent kind of listing price, what they think the home seller would get through a traditional sale for the house.

然後，也有更多關於 iBuyers 提供即時報價，然後加上傳統代理商掛牌價格的討論，他們認為房屋賣家可以透過傳統的房屋銷售獲得價格。

How important do you think that would be to the iBuying process?

您認為這對 iBuying 流程有多重要？

And is that something that Zillow is taking a look at?

Zillow 正在關注這一點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

So I mean consumers are super sensitive to fee.

所以我的意思是消費者對費用非常敏感。

So as the fee varies, you'll see acceptance rate change.

因此，隨著費用的變化，您會看到接受率發生變化。

But that's relative to their alternative, right?

但這是相對於他們的選擇而言的，對吧？

So when we're pricing in a fee, many of those costs are costs they would incur no matter how they sold.

因此，當我們定價時，其中許多成本都是無論如何銷售都會產生的成本。

And having that conversation with them and explaining that to them is something that we're still working through and they're still learning as they get into the selling process.

與他們進行對話並向他們解釋這一點是我們仍在努力解決的問題，他們在進入銷售流程時仍在學習。

So when fee moves, it moves but it's about what is the move relative to in terms of alternatives.

因此，當費用發生變化時，它就會發生變化，但問題在於相對於替代方案而言，變化是什麼。

And then Greg, I don't know if you want to take the listing...

然後格雷格，我不知道你是否想接受清單......

Sure.

當然。

Seller leads have been a topic of some interest.

賣家線索一直是一些人感興趣的話題。

We think we have a good long-term opportunity in developing a business adjacent to Zillow Offers, but there's some invention to happen here.

我們認為，我們在開發與 Zillow Offers 相鄰的業務方面擁有良好的長期機會，但這裡還需要一些發明。

Of course, it's confined just to the Zillow Offers footprint, which is still a pretty compact footprint.

當然，它僅限於 Zillow Offers 的足跡，這仍然是一個相當緊湊的足跡。

And the thing we have to get -- sorted out in our product iteration is folks covet this beautiful, amazing Zillow Offers' instant experience.

我們在產品迭代中必須得到的東西是人們渴望這種美麗、令人驚嘆的 Zillow Offers 即時體驗。

And we have to figure out how to cross-sell them -- when they don't fit our buy box typically, cross-sell them into listing with the Premier Agent.

我們必須弄清楚如何交叉銷售它們——當它們通常不適合我們的購買框時，將它們交叉銷售到高級代理商的清單中。

We're working our tails off on that.

我們正在為此竭盡全力。

And there's promise, but it's not this year.

還有希望，但不是今年。

Our next question comes from Brent Thill of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的布倫特希爾 (Brent Thill)。

It's Alex Giaimo on for Brent.

亞歷克斯·吉艾莫 (Alex Giaimo) 替補布倫特 (Brent)。

Just based on the color you provided in the letter, it seems as if recent Premier Agent feedback has been positive, but the full year guide still implies just 2% growth.

僅根據您在信中提供的顏色，似乎最近的高級代理反饋是積極的，但全年指南仍然暗示只有 2% 的增長。

So if you can just remind us what you think the TAM is for that business, that would be helpful, and how much runway you think is still available in the PA business.

因此，如果您能提醒我們您認為 TAM 對於該業務有何意義，以及您認為 PA 業務中仍有多少跑道可用，那將會很有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

So this is Allen Parker.

這是艾倫·帕克。

I'll take that.

我會接受的。

I mean I guess what I would say is that with the guidance that we gave, the implied -- at the top end of the guidance, the implied growth rate for Premier Agent in Q4 is about just under 3%, but that is impacted by the Flex adjustment that we described.

我的意思是，我想我想說的是，根據我們給出的指導，隱含的——在指導的最高端，Premier Agent 在第四季度的隱含增長率大約略低於3%，但這受到以下因素的影響：我們所描述的 Flex 調整。

I think that we expected with this recurring revenue and the churn that we saw last year that we would have to build that back up.

我認為，我們預計，憑藉這種經常性收入和去年看到的客戶流失，我們必須建立備份。

We would see more significant growth had we not done the Flex transaction.

如果我們沒有完成 Flex 交易，我們會看到更顯著的成長。

As Rich mentioned, it's the way we recognize revenue.

正如里奇所說，這是我們確認收入的方式。

But in terms of long-term TAM and growth, I would just look to our long-term targets.

但就長期 TAM 和成長而言，我只會專注於我們的長期目標。

We still believe that within 3 to 5 years, IMT can be a $2 billion business at a 30% EBITDA margin.

我們仍然相信，在 3 到 5 年內，IMT 可以成為一項價值 20 億美元、EBITDA 利潤率為 30% 的業務。

And the principal part of this is when we do a transaction model, we're doing a transaction model with the finest real estate professionals in the land and [we have a] much larger TAM to address with this new Flex program as we get to it.

其中的主要部分是，當我們建立交易模型時，我們正在與該國最優秀的房地產專業人士一起建立交易模型，並且[我們有]更大的 TAM 來解決這個新的 Flex 計劃，因為我們到達它。

So there's a bunch of upside on the bids.

因此，出價有很多上漲空間。

We've just got to get everything lined up, and we've got to get some full data back from these higher-scale tests in these 2 important geo markets.

我們必須把一切都安排好，我們必須從這兩個重要地理市場的更大規模測試中獲得一些完整的數據。

And then we'll be to it.

然後我們就開始吧。

Our next question comes from Brad Berning of Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Brad Berning。

Just to follow up a little bit more further on that thought process.

只是為了進一步跟進這個思考過程。

Maybe you can touch a little bit upon the Flex TAM of how you see it versus kind of the traditional advertising Premier Agent TAM and what is the margin profile on Flex likely look at versus the historical kind of PA business.

或許您可以稍微談談 Flex TAM 與傳統廣告 Premier Agent TAM 的差異，以及 Flex 與歷史 PA 業務相比可能看到的利潤狀況。

Just kind of curious if you can help us think that through.

只是有點好奇你是否能幫助我們思考。

Yes.

是的。

I'll talk to you about like the top line economics of it, and then Allen can hit the margin profile if he wants to.

我會和你談談它的頂線經濟學，然後艾倫如果願意的話就可以達到利潤率。

The way to think about this is we've been limited by the advertising budgets, which is -- by advertising budgets of the credit cards of these great small business people, these agents.

思考這個問題的方法是，我們一直受到廣告預算的限制，也就是受到這些偉大的小企業人士、這些代理商的信用卡廣告預算的限制。

Who have had to pay upfront.

誰必須預先付款。

Who have had to pay upfront and take the financial risk.

誰必須預先付款並承擔財務風險。

And so they were looking for pretty strong economics and returns.

因此，他們正在尋找相當強勁的經濟效益和回報。

And even when they were wildly profitable, multiples profitable, they derisked those decisions when prices went up on them.

即使他們利潤豐厚，利潤倍數高，當價格上漲時，他們也會避免做出這些決定。

When we moved towards -- we moved to Flex, let's be clear, the economics -- the take on an average transaction improves for our company.

當我們轉向——我們轉向 Flex，讓我們明確一點，經濟——我們公司的平均交易量有所提高。

So we take a bit more because we're capitalizing the transaction.

所以我們多拿一點，因為我們正在將交易資本化。

And we think by providing better lead distribution or connections to the right professionals and a better experience with Best of Zillow, where we can drop folks that aren't providing amazing experiences to consumers, will drive well more transactions.

我們認為，透過提供更好的潛在客戶分配或與合適的專業人士的聯繫，以及透過Best of Zillow 提供更好的體驗（我們可以剔除那些無法為消費者提供出色體驗的人員），將會推動更多交易。

So the economics on a per transaction basis improve for us.

因此，每筆交易的經濟效益對我們來說有所改善。

We've talked about this -- roughly it's a 35% referral fee is the industry standard.

我們已經討論過這一點——大約 35% 的推薦費是行業標準。

We'll see where we settle in.

我們會看看我們在哪裡定居。

So that's great.

那太好了。

And then we'll drive more transactions.

然後我們將推動更多交易。

So this should have really good leverage for us, and it aligns us with the incentives with both consumers and the real estate.

因此，這對我們來說應該具有非常好的影響力，並且它使我們與消費者和房地產的激勵措施保持一致。

And it doesn't appear on the income statement, but once again, I'll bring up customer satisfaction.

它不會出現在損益表中，但我會再次提出客戶滿意度。

It's a better -- we think it's a better customer experience this way, and that matters.

這是更好的——我們認為這樣可以提供更好的客戶體驗，這一點很重要。

That is an input to growth.

這是對成長的投入。

And with respect to the margin profile, we're not currently giving any guidance outside of our current outlook.

關於利潤率狀況，我們目前不會在當前前景之外提供任何指導。

We've got a lot to learn about Flex.

關於 Flex，我們還有很多東西要了解。

But again, as Rich mentioned, we're super excited about a lot of the elements starting with the customer.

但正如里奇所提到的，我們對從客戶開始的許多元素感到非常興奮。

And we think the rest will work itself out to the positive.

我們認為其餘的事情將會產生正面的結果。

And I would just still direct you to our long-term targets with respect to the curves over the next 3 to 5 years.

我仍然會引導您實現我們未來 3 到 5 年曲線的長期目標。

Our next question comes from Tom Champion of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Tom Champion。

Maybe one more in Flex.

也許 Flex 中還有一個。

I'm just curious if you could close the loop on why Phoenix and Atlanta and why it's important that those were Offers markets as well.

我只是好奇您能否詳細解釋為什麼選擇菲尼克斯和亞特蘭大，以及為什麼這些市場也是報價市場也很重要。

Can just clarify that?

可以澄清一下嗎？

And then maybe switching gears to Offers, really impressive markets growth and transaction volumes.

然後也許會轉向報價，真正令人印象深刻的市場成長和交易量。

I'm just curious if you could share any thoughts around scale and maybe volumes where individual markets become profitable.

我只是好奇您是否可以分享有關規模以及單一市場盈利的數量的任何想法。

Any comments around that would be really helpful.

任何有關這方面的評論都會非常有幫助。

Yes I'll pick up the first.

是的，我會選擇第一個。

This is Greg.

這是格雷格。

Why Phoenix and Atlanta?

為什麼選擇鳳凰城和亞特蘭大？

The brand is pretty hot there.

這個品牌在那裡很火。

We've got great agents working with us there.

我們有很棒的代理商在那裡與我們合作。

They partnered with us there.

他們在那裡與我們合作。

And we're iterating on the seller lead opportunity and the buyer lead opportunity there.

我們正在迭代賣方主導機會和買方主導機會。

It's a more controlled laboratory for testing.

這是一個更受控制的測試實驗室。

Yes.

是的。

You bet.

你打賭。

So that's why those 2 important markets and they're large enough markets that it's going to give a strong enough signal.

這就是為什麼這兩個重要市場夠大，能夠發出足夠強烈的訊號。

And on this signal -- the strong signals we're seeing from the data that we've shared, these leading indicators are based on a few midsize metros in Connecticut and Colorado.

根據這個訊號——我們從我們共享的數據中看到的強烈訊號，這些領先指標是基於康乃狄克州和科羅拉多州的一些中型地鐵。

And these 2 big areas will give us a really strong signal.

這兩個大領域會給我們一個非常強烈的訊號。

Jeremy, you want to...

傑里米，你想...

Yes.

是的。

On offers and kind of how we think about markets as we go, yes, we're scaling quickly and we're adding more.

關於報價以及我們對市場的看法，是的，我們正在迅速擴大規模，並且正在增加更多。

And we're just now starting to come up on even being able to see year-over-year on the first couple markets.

我們現在才剛開始在前幾個市場上看到逐年成長的情況。

So it's still early, and it's going to be a while before we can really think about sort of market composition and market-by-market dynamics.

因此，現在還為時過早，我們還需要一段時間才能真正考慮市場組成和逐個市場的動態。

The only thing I can say is obviously scale is an input to that long-term target on profitability, too.

我唯一能說的是，規模顯然也是對長期獲利目標的投入。

So the scale platform that we get both in each market and across the market and be able to grab the data and get the best demand signal provide stronger offers and drive costs down are what going to drive the whole business.

因此，我們在每個市場和整個市場上獲得的規模平台，能夠獲取數據並獲得最佳需求訊號，提供更強大的報價並降低成本，這將推動整個業務的發展。

That's going to be true in our big markets and it's going to be true across the platform.

這在我們的大市場中是正確的，在整個平台上也是如此。

Our next question comes from Brian Nowak of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布萊恩·諾瓦克。

I have 2. Just to throw another one at Flex.

我有 2 個。只是為了向 Flex 扔另一個。

So I just kind of want to make sure we understand.

所以我只是想確保我們理解。

So if you look at sort of your initial markets where you're testing this, are you saying that your per home transaction monetization, so the revenue you're generating per home that is actually sold through the platform is actually better through Flex than the old PA, just to kind of -- to clear that up and then just so we understand how it trends over time.

因此，如果您看看您正在測試這一點的初始市場，您是否是在說您的每戶交易貨幣化，即您透過平台實際銷售的每戶所產生的收入實際上透過Flex 比透過Flex 更好？舊的 PA，只是為了澄清這一點，然後讓我們了解它隨時間的變化趨勢。

And then you talked about sort of the idea that you'll be able to send more leads and more home sales to higher-quality agents.

然後您談到了這樣的想法，即您將能夠向更高品質的代理商發送更多線索和更多房屋銷售。

If Flex is successful over time then, do you see a world where you have more leads and more transactions going through higher-quality agents, so the agent count could fall further over time?

如果 Flex 隨著時間的推移取得成功，您是否會看到這樣一個世界：透過更高品質的代理商獲得更多潛在客戶和更多交易，因此代理商數量可能會隨著時間的推移而進一步下降？

Is that kind of the way you're thinking about Flex changing the business model?

您是否也是這樣考慮 Flex 改變業務模式的？

Yes.

是的。

So 2 good questions.

這是兩個好問題。

So the economics, I would point out, we're early yet, we just launched the program in those areas in June.

因此，我想指出的是，在經濟方面，我們還處於早期階段，我們剛剛在六月在這些領域啟動了該計劃。

So what we believe will occur in a sell and what occurs -- we've got to let this stuff mature a little bit.

因此，我們相信在賣出中會發生什麼，以及會發生什麼——我們必須讓這些東西成熟一點。

Two, we're going to plant a flag on that issue, okay?

第二，我們要在這個問題上豎起旗幟，好嗎？

You just said to me the take rate was going to go up.

你剛才對我說，錄取率會上升。

I just heard that on the call.

我剛剛在電話裡聽到了。

I took a note.

我記下了。

So you can ask me about it later.

所以你可以稍後再問我。

But the end, it's still pretty small.

但最終，它仍然很小。

Yes.

是的。

Exactly.

確切地。

The end is pretty small, but it's looking pretty positive.

結局很小，但看起來很積極。

It is looking like on a per transaction basis, it should be positive.

從每筆交易來看，它應該是正面的。

And then the question on agent count.

然後是關於代理人數的問題。

We intend to have a selection of the most productive agents in the business.

我們打算挑選業界最有生產力的代理商。

Connections allow them to pick up the phone and have a live customer who's been vetted, who wants to talk to them and schedule an appointment, go out and see a house, get connected to them.

透過聯繫，他們可以拿起電話，聯繫經過審查的現場客戶，該客戶想要與他們交談並安排約會，出去看房子，並與他們聯繫。

This is a really important efficiency driver for them, so we expect that the best get bigger.

這對他們來說是一個非常重要的效率驅動因素，因此我們希望最好的公司能夠變得更大。

Yes, if that's the question, we certainly expect that to occur.

是的，如果這是問題所在，我們當然希望這種情況發生。

And the team model is very well suited to this, which we've invested in now for many, many years.

團隊模式非常適合這一點，我們已經投資了很多很多年。

A lot of wonderful individual practitioners have now become businesses.

許多優秀的個人從業者現在已經成為企業。

Hiring buyers' agents, hiring showing agents, hiring listing agents, hiring transaction coordinators on top of our platform.

在我們的平台上聘請買家代理、僱用展示代理、僱用掛牌代理、僱用交易協調員。

We expect that to accelerate.

我們預計這種情況會加速。

And so the total customer counts may decline early, but the number of agents working the volume that we send downstream will probably grow, and each of them will get more of their business from us.

因此，客戶總數可能會提前下降，但處理我們向下游發送的數量的代理數量可能會增加，每個人都會從我們那裡獲得更多業務。

So -- but it's early.

所以——但現在還早。

Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian of Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Ygal Arounian。

So a little bit more on Flex.

關於 Flex 的更多內容。

I just want to make sure, maybe understand all the ins and outs.

我只是想確定一下，也許了解所有的來龍去脈。

So in the markets that you're in, is it opt-in right now?

那麼，在您所在的市場中，現在是否可以選擇加入？

Are you pushing to -- or is it only Flex?

您是否正在推動——或者只是Flex？

What's kind of the mix in those markets?

這些市場的組合是什麼樣的呢？

And so I understand that you're seeing some early positive signals.

所以我知道你們看到了一些早期的正向訊號。

Any way to give kind of ballpark framework around how many transactions have actually closed through the Flex model?

有什麼方法可以提供有關透過 Flex 模型實際完成的交易數量的大概框架嗎？

And then as we look out to the 3 to 5 year targets, understanding that you're still confident in those numbers or more confident today, how much of that -- there's a big step-up in growth between this year and then the following years, right, that's the assumption if we get to the targets, how much of that is based on Flex working?

然後，當我們展望 3 到 5 年的目標時，了解您仍然對這些數字充滿信心，或者今天更有信心，其中有多少 - 今年和接下來的增長之間會有很大的進步幾年，對吧，這是假設，如果我們達到目標，其中有多少是基於Flex 的工作？

And how much of it is based on the traditional core PA returning back to kind of like the double-digit growth rate that you've seen?

其中有多少是基於傳統核心 PA 恢復到您所看到的兩位數成長率？

Okay.

好的。

There are a few questions in there, so I'll pick off one at a time and then you'll help me out a little bit.

裡面有幾個問題，所以我會一次挑一個，然後你會幫我解決一點。

So the first question is what's the actual dynamics in the markets that are live today and how we roll it out.

因此，第一個問題是當今市場的實際動態是什麼以及我們如何推出它。

It's entire market.

這就是整個市場。

So get on there.

所以就去那裡吧。

We put our teams on the market.

我們將我們的團隊投放到市場上。

We train up our customers.

我們培訓我們的客戶。

They go ahead and create a shift from a prepay model to a post-pay model.

他們繼續創造從預付費模式到後付費模式的轉變。

That hasn't been real hard to stop billing their credit cards, to move it to a post-pay model.

停止向他們的信用卡收費、將其轉變為後付費模式並不難。

We typically run the changes for a month or 2 and we frame the same share of voice they had.

我們通常會進行一兩個月的變更，我們會表達與他們相同的聲音。

And then we let that algorithm that I mentioned, the performance pacing algorithm start to scale up.

然後我們讓我提到的演算法，即效能調速演算法開始擴大規模。

It has the input it needs from the maturing -- from this maturing set of data, appointment rates, customer satisfaction.

它擁有成熟所需的輸入——來自這組成熟的數據、預約率、客戶滿意度。

And then the performance pacing algorithm starts to do the allocations, overweight or heavy up the best performers.

然後效能調配演算法開始進行分配，對錶現最佳的人進行超重或加重。

And so that's how these typical market launches go.

這就是這些典型的市場發布的方式。

That is how Atlanta and Phoenix will launch.

這就是亞特蘭大和鳳凰城的啟動方式。

And there's a whole lot of dialogue with our Premier Agents before we launch, and they've been very welcoming of this change.

在我們推出之前，我們與我們的高級代理商進行了大量對話，他們非常歡迎這項變更。

So that's been a highlight so far.

所以這是迄今為止的亮點。

A question on transactions.

關於交易的問題。

We just launched this in June, and so it's too early in the maturity for me or the team to be comfortable sharing a metric.

我們剛剛在 6 月推出了此功能，因此對於我或團隊來說，成熟度還太早，無法輕鬆共享指標。

So we're not being coy.

所以我們並不害羞。

We're just -- it takes a while for these transactions to happen.

我們只是——這些交易需要一段時間才能發生。

Yes.

是的。

It has to close.

它必須關閉。

It hasn't been 6 months yet, and that's the typical window.

現在還不到 6 個月，這是典型的窗口期。

So we're not going to plant a flag in yet on what that looks like.

所以我們還不打算在它的外觀上設定一個標誌。

And again, it's small scale.

再說一次，它的規模很小。

And that's why we're going to these larger-scale markets to get a stronger signal.

這就是為什麼我們要去這些更大規模的市場以獲得更強烈的訊號。

And it's a test, so it wasn't -- the 3 to 5 year model was not predicated on -- yes, okay -- on the success or failure of this.

這是一個測試，所以它不是 - 3 到 5 年模型並不基於 - 是的，好的 - 成功或失敗。

Yes.

是的。

We don't have enough information on the test yet to really roll in what we exactly think in the 3 to 5 year.

我們還沒有足夠的測試資訊來真正推出我們在 3 到 5 年內的確切想法。

We feel comfortable that the 3- to 5-year targets are achievable, but we'll learn more with this, and we'll come back and explain what we think the impacts could be if it affects it.

我們對 3 到 5 年的目標是可以實現的感到滿意，但我們會從中了解更多信息，並且我們會回來解釋我們認為如果它影響了它可能會產生什麼影響。

Our next question comes from Naved Khan of SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Naved Khan。

Just looking at the amount of inventory, number of homes that's around 1,500, and I think there are a few things going on you're ramping across -- you're opening new markets and then there is seasonality because, obviously, we are in a peak season.

只要看看庫存量，大約 1,500 套房屋的數量，我認為有一些事情正在發生——你正在開闢新市場，然後還有季節性，因為顯然，我們正處於旺季。

So how should we understand on a sort of like-for-like basis how the inventory increase because of seasonal factors versus it going up because you're in more markets?

那麼，我們應該如何在類似的基礎上理解庫存是如何因季節性因素而增加的，而不是因進入更多市場而增加的？

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I mean it's both market expansion and just raw growth, maybe even less seasonality.

我的意思是，這既是市場擴張，也是原始成長，甚至可能更少的季節性。

So yes, we're opening more markets.

所以，是的，我們正在開放更多市場。

And therefore, every month is an increasing amount of volume in the business.

因此，每個月的業務量都在增加。

And so you're going to see that continue to build.

所以你會看到這種情況繼續發展。

So we'll -- the inventory will continue to grow while we're scaling because we'll be buying more in every month than we were able to sell from the previous cohort.

因此，在我們擴大規模的同時，庫存將繼續成長，因為我們每個月購買的數量都會多於上一批產品的銷售量。

And we expect that to not just continue, but to continue across the markets that we open as well.

我們預計這種情況不僅會持續下去，而且還會在我們開放的市場上持續下去。

And then maybe a related question.

然後也許是一個相關的問題。

So in the markets that you're in already with Zillow Homes, how much effort are you spending on brand advertising and what's the plan -- is that going to ramp up?

那麼，在您已經透過 Zillow Homes 進入的市場中，您在品牌廣告上投入了多少精力以及計劃是什麼——是否會增加？

Or do you think you're in a good place?

還是你認為你處於一個好的位置？

So I mean the story for Zillow Offers is that we have kind of all the demand we can handle, and this big amazing brand that we have spent decade building in concert with the IMT business and the other businesses for our customers is paying great dividends as a place for all of our homeowners to come and start with Zillow Offers.

因此，我的意思是，Zillow Offers 的故事是，我們擁有可以處理的所有需求，我們花了十年時間與IMT 業務和其他業務共同為我們的客戶打造的這個令人驚嘆的大品牌正在支付巨大的紅利，因為我們所有的房主都可以在這裡開始使用 Zillow 優惠。

So we do a little testing here or there to try and figure out how to start to get the marketing machine we have dialed in across these businesses.

因此，我們在這裡或那裡做了一些測試，試圖找出如何開始在這些企業中使用我們所使用的行銷機器。

But by and large, the traffic that we have coming already is the source for Zillow Offers.

但總的來說，我們已經收到的流量是 Zillow Offers 的來源。

And frankly, we've been inundated with the demand every time we line up a market.

坦白說，每次我們排隊進入市場時，我們都會被需求淹沒。

And so our big goal is trying to figure out how to open these markets efficiently, quickly and effectively to actually satisfy the demand.

因此，我們的大目標是試圖找出如何有效率、快速、有效地開放這些市場，以真正滿足需求。

And that, of course, makes sense not just because we have 194 million new use for the quarter is what we just announced, something like that.

當然，這是有道理的，不僅僅是因為我們剛剛宣布的季度新增使用量為 1.94 億，諸如此類。

So not just because we have a ton of new use.

這不僅僅是因為我們有大量新用途。

A lot of those are coming because the Zestimate is the first stop on the way to thinking about selling your home.

其中許多人都會來，因為 Zestimate 是考慮出售房屋的第一站。

And so we haven't had to exhibit a tremendous amount of cleverness in merchandising.

因此，我們不必在推銷方面表現出巨大的聰明才智。

In fact, we haven't exhibited a certain amount -- or that much cleverness, honestly.

事實上，老實說，我們還沒有表現出某種程度的聰明才智。

But we haven't had to in trying to get them to raise their hand and say they like the Zillow Offer.

但我們不必試圖讓他們舉手並表示他們喜歡 Zillow 優惠。

Our next question comes from Deepak Mathivanan of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的迪帕克·馬蒂瓦南。

Somewhat related to question, the prior one.

與前一個問題有些相關。

So on the 3Q guide for the Homes business, the $80 million EBITDA loss at the high end, how much of the cost is associated with city-level expansion and all the fixed costs, sort of the nonvariable costs associated with it compared to sort of your expectations for contribution margin on a per home basis related to the volume that you are looking to sell?

因此，在住宅業務的第三季指南中，高端市場 8000 萬美元的 EBITDA 損失，有多少成本與城市級擴張以及所有固定成本相關，與此相關的固定成本與您對每個房屋的邊際貢獻的期望與您希望出售的數量相關嗎？

And then second one, also on the Homes business, now that you're being active in Phoenix and Vegas markets for a while, is the inventory growth sort of continuing to happen at a similar pace where you think market share gains is still very easily achievable in these markets?

第二個問題，也是關於房屋業務，既然您在鳳凰城和維加斯市場活躍了一段時間，庫存增長是否繼續以類似的速度發生，您認為市場份額的增長仍然很容易在這些市場上可以實現嗎？

Or are we now at a point where the iBuying market in itself has reached a reasonable level in these that are all your adopting cities, so it's going to be a little bit more market share dynamic that plays out there?

或者說，我們現在是否已經達到了這樣的程度：在您所採用的城市中，iBuying 市場本身已經達到了合理的水平，因此那裡的市場份額動態將會更大一些？

Let's start with Allen?

我們先從艾倫開始吧？

So I guess I'll take the first one.

所以我想我會選擇第一個。

I mean I guess the way I would describe it is when you think about our growth and our revenue range, the Homes cost of revenue has fluctuated between 95% to 97% of revenue -- as a percent of revenue.

我的意思是，我想我的描述方式是，當你考慮我們的成長和收入範圍時，Homes 的收入成本在收入的 95% 到 97% 之間波動——佔收入的百分比。

And the 97% high was in Q2, and that related to this inventory value assessment.

而97%的高點是在第二季度，這與本次庫存價值評估有關。

So I think that what you'll see over time is that number will move back down closer to the 95% and the rest would be the fixed costs associated with building the business and infrastructure that's not part of the cost of revenue of the Home.

因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，您會看到該數字將回落至接近 95%，其餘部分將是與建設業務和基礎設施相關的固定成本，這不屬於家庭收入成本的一部分。

So I think you can use a range of around 95%.

所以我認為你可以使用95%左右的範圍。

It will fluctuate, but that may be a good estimate at least in the near term on the variable kind of costs related to the Home versus the fixed cost to build.

它會波動，但至少在短期內，這可能是與房屋相關的可變成本與建造固定成本的良好估計。

And then on the second one, market share gains versus steady state.

然後在第二個方面，市場佔有率相對於穩定狀態增加。

I mean I think it's important to remember just how early it is.

我的意思是，我認為記住現在有多早很重要。

So even though the segment's been around for a couple of years and people have been starting to experiment with trying to sell their home this way, the vast majority of consumers we talk to don't know what this is.

因此，儘管該細分市場已經存在了幾年，並且人們已經開始嘗試以這種方式出售房屋，但我們採訪的絕大多數消費者並不知道這是什麼。

And as Rich said, we're not really getting that clever yet about trying to teach them because, frankly, we don't have to and we're inundated with the demand of people coming off our website.

正如里奇所說，我們還沒有真正聰明地嘗試教他們，因為坦白說，我們沒有必要這樣做，而且我們已經被來自我們網站的人們的需求淹沒了。

But there's a ton...

但有一大堆...

We're busy building out markets.

我們正忙於開拓市場。

But over time, you'll see market share gains come from more homeowners and home sellers understanding what this offering is, learning about it and trying it out and hopefully converting to it.

但隨著時間的推移，你會發現市場份額的成長來自於更多的房主和房屋賣家了解這個產品是什麼，了解它並嘗試它，並希望轉化為它。

And we are in a very, very early innings of consumer awareness and understanding of this.

我們正處於消費者對此的認識和理解的非常非常早期的階段。

And our last question comes from Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的希思·特里。

This is Adam Hotchkiss on for Heath.

我是希思的亞當‧霍奇基斯。

When we think about just the turnover in the Homes business, we saw roughly 1,000 homes on the balance sheet at the end of 1Q, and you guys sold roughly 80% of that in 2Q.

當我們只考慮房屋業務的營業額時，我們在第一季末的資產負債表上看到了大約 1,000 套房屋，而你們在第二季度出售了大約 80%。

You've previously talked about the 90-day threshold.

您之前談過 90 天的門檻。

How has that evolved over time, particularly as you've entered new markets, the thought process around balance sheet turnover?

隨著時間的推移，特別是當你進入新市場時，圍繞資產負債表週轉率的思考過程是如何演變的？

And then when we talk to agents, we hear a lot about the value that -- particularly those who were representing homeowners in markets with Zillow Offers and other Instant Offers businesses, the value of essentially using that as a way to create more opportunities and more value for the homeowner.

然後，當我們與代理商交談時，我們聽到了很多有關其價值的信息，尤其是那些在Zillow Offers 和其他Instant Offers 業務的市場中代表房主的代理商，其價值本質上是利用它來創造更多機會和更多對房主的價值。

When we think about you being proactive with agents versus agents sort of coming to you in some of these newer markets, how do you think about how those relationships evolve?

當我們想到您積極主動地與代理商合作，而不是在一些較新的市場中尋找代理商時，您如何看待這些關係如何發展？

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

So on the whole time -- I mean I'll point you back to our unit margin target.

因此，從始至終，我的意思是我會向您指出我們的單位利潤率目標。

So we get into more markets, we get into more types of homes.

所以我們進入了更多的市場，我們進入了更多類型的房屋。

We're underwriting each home to a specific whole time and cost to sell, all solving for that plus or minus 200 basis points before interest.

我們為每棟房屋提供特定的總銷售時間和銷售成本，所有解決方案均考慮利息前正負 200 個基點。

So as markets are in season, you're going to see the whole funds vary across that, but it's really about solving for that unit margins.

因此，當市場處於旺季時，你會看到整個基金的情況有所不同，但這實際上是為了解決單位利潤率問題。

And we continue to feel good.

我們繼續感覺良好。

And we continue to hit that target as we go and feel good about that target.

我們將繼續實現這個目標，並對這個目標感覺良好。

In terms of -- I think your second question was just around agents in markets where there are things like Zillow Offers, talking about Zillow Offers as an option to sell.

就這一點而言，我認為您的第二個問題是關於市場中的代理商，那裡有 Zillow Offers 之類的東西，談論 Zillow Offers 作為銷售選擇。

I think that's what your question was.

我想這就是你的問題。

At least from our standpoint, we have a great agent partner in each one of these markets that we're working with.

至少從我們的角度來看，我們在合作的每個市場都有一位出色的代理商合作夥伴。

They have that conversation as well.

他們也有這樣的談話。

And we think that choice is super important, whether they end up selling to us or ultimately listing traditionally, hopefully, with one of our partners, I think that will help contribute to growing awareness of what this is.

我們認為這種選擇非常重要，無論他們最終是出售給我們還是最終以傳統方式上市，希望與我們的合作夥伴之一一起上市，我認為這將有助於提高人們對這是什麼的認識。

As Rich said earlier, most folks are starting their home-selling journey on Zillow, think about their Zestimate.

正如 Rich 之前所說，大多數人都是在 Zillow 上開始他們的房屋銷售之旅，想想他們的 Zestimate。

And that button right next to them as a way to think about how to start, we think, becomes a really primary way for them to get their hands and their head around what selling looks like regardless of which path they go down.

我們認為，他們旁邊的那個按鈕是一種思考如何開始的方式，成為他們掌握銷售的主要方式，無論他們走哪條路。

This concludes our question-and-answer session and concludes the conference call.

我們的問答環節和電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。