Zillow Group Inc (Z) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Zillow Group First Quarter 2020 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. Thank you.

下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow 集團 2020 年第一季電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。謝謝。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Brad Berning, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Brad Berning。請繼續。

Thank you, Sheryl. Good afternoon and welcome to Zillow Group's First Quarter 2020 Conference Call. Joining me today to discuss our Q1 results are Zillow Group's Co-Founder and CEO, Rich Barton; and CFO, Allen Parker.

謝謝你，謝麗爾。下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2020 年第一季電話會議。今天與我一起討論我們第一季業績的是 Zillow Group 聯合創始人兼執行長 Rich Barton；和財務長艾倫·帕克。

During the call, we'll make forward-looking statements about our future performance and operating plans based on current expectations and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and we encourage you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings for additional information. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

在電話會議期間，我們將根據當前的預期和假設對未來業績和營運計劃做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，我們鼓勵您考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的風險因素以獲取更多資訊。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務，除非法律要求。

This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible in our Investor Relations website. A recording of the call will be available later today.

這次電話會議正在網路上播出，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上存取。今天稍後將提供通話錄音。

During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, which we refer to as EBITDA. We encourage you to read our shareholder letter and our earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website as they contain important information about our GAAP and non-GAAP results, including reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA，我們稱之為 EBITDA。我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的股東信和收益報告，這些內容可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到，因為它們包含有關我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的重要信息，包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。

In addition, please note, we will refer to our Internet, Media & Technology segment as our IMT segment. We will open the call with brief remarks followed by live Q&A.

此外，請注意，我們將互聯網、媒體和技術部門稱為 IMT 部門。我們將以簡短的演講開始電話會議，然後進行現場問答。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

這樣，我就把電話轉給里奇。

Thanks, Brad. Hi, everyone. I wonder if this is starting to feel familiar to you, too. Brad, Allen and I are, once again, broadcasting from our homes where we are based for the foreseeable future along with thousands of Zillow Group employees and continuing work on our mission to give people the power to unlock life's next chapter.

謝謝，布拉德。大家好。我想知道你是否也開始感到熟悉。 Brad、Allen 和我將再次在我們的家中進行廣播，在可預見的未來，我們將與數千名 Zillow Group 員工一起繼續努力實現我們的使命，賦予人們開啟人生新篇章的力量。

Although what we see physically day-to-day is pretty static and repetitive, we are all navigating a world in flux. According to MIT, about half the U.S. workforce is now working from home. And they're not just working from home. They're teaching their kids, eating each meal, conducting their social lives, all from home. Whether they're dreaming about an extra room for an office, a bigger yard, a less dense neighborhood or, for many of you maybe, a new second home, there's evidence that the experience has uncorked new aspirations and hopes of what home can be and needs to be. With each passing day, it becomes clearer that we are not going back to the way things were. Collectively, we are turning the page.

儘管我們每天所看到的物理現象相當靜態且重複，但我們都在不斷變化的世界中航行。據麻省理工學院稱，目前約有一半的美國勞動力在家工作。他們不僅僅是在家工作。他們在家裡教孩子、吃每一餐、社交生活。無論他們夢想的是一個額外的辦公室空間、一個更大的院子、一個不那麼密集的社區，還是對你們中的許多人來說，一個新的第二個家，有證據表明，這種體驗已經激發了對家的新渴望和希望並且需要如此。隨著時間一天天過去，我們越來越清楚我們不會再回到原來的狀態了。我們正在共同翻過新的一頁。

The past 2 months have been marked by health and economic upheaval across the globe. Amid the jolting stories of lives, jobs and businesses lost, we are grateful to be able to share not just strong Q1 results but evidence of the housing market's resilience and an encouraging readiness, perhaps pent-up restlessness, among people who are shopping on Zillow.

過去兩個月，全球出現了健康和經濟動盪。在生命、工作和企業失去的令人震驚的故事中，我們很高興不僅能夠分享強勁的第一季業績，而且能夠分享房地產市場彈性的證據，以及在Zillow 購物的人們之間令人鼓舞的準備狀態，也許是壓抑的不安。 。

When we talked last on our pop-up call on March 23, we had seen visits to Zillow fall nearly 20% from the prior year. Since then, there's been a full rebound and shopping activity on Zillow Group has returned to double-digit year-over-year growth, along with an upswing in request for our customers to connect with a Zillow partner agent at rates exceeding mid-March levels.

當我們在 3 月 23 日的臨時電話會議上進行最後一次對話時，我們發現 Zillow 的訪問量比去年下降了近 20%。此後，Zillow Group 上的購物活動全面反彈，同比增長恢復兩位數，同時，我們的客戶與 Zillow 合作夥伴代理商聯繫的請求也有所增加，費率超過了 3 月中旬的水平。

From a balance sheet perspective, the foundation we laid in the last year put us on a really solid ground. Then our swift actions to temporarily pause Zillow Offers home buying and reduce expenses by cutting marketing spend, discretionary spend and pausing most hiring helped us preserve and build cash.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們去年奠定的基礎為我們奠定了堅實的基礎。然後，我們迅速採取行動，暫時暫停 Zillow Offers 購房，並透過削減行銷支出、可自由支配支出和暫停大部分招聘來減少開支，幫助我們保留和積累了現金。

During our last call, we reviewed our mid-quarter balance sheet with you. It has strengthened since that call with $2.6 billion in cash and investments at the end of Q1. January and February were very strong months across all our businesses and were a great counterbalance to the pullback we experienced in March. In all, the first quarter delivered strong results as we met or beat our outlook, delivering record results across many measures, thanks to both strong execution and expense management. Our return to underlying double-digit IMT segment revenue growth and significant EBITDA margin expansion underscores the strength of our core business.

在上次通話中，我們與您一起審查了季度中期資產負債表。自那次電話會議以來，該公司的實力有所增強，截至第一季末現金和投資達到 26 億美元。一月和二月對於我們所有業務來說都是非常強勁的月份，並且很好地抵消了我們在三月經歷的回調。總而言之，由於強大的執行力和費用管理，第一季我們實現了強勁的業績，達到或超越了我們的預期，在許多指標上都取得了創紀錄的業績。我們的 IMT 部門營收恢復兩位數成長，且 EBITDA 利潤率顯著擴張，凸顯了我們核心業務的實力。

In Premier Agent, we have found meaningful success with our strategy of connecting more and higher-intent customers with our high-performing agents, which was illustrated by record performance in January and February. When our partners were most fearful in March, the #bettertogether discounts -- Better Together is one of our core values, plus the hashtag. These discounts we provided to our Premier Agents helped these small business operators and buoyed retention rates through the most uncertain and volatile period. Without being naive, I'll say that Better Together showed our partners how much they mean to us and that they appreciate it. This will pay dividends.

在 Premier Agent 中，我們透過將更多意向更高的客戶與我們的高績效代理商聯繫起來的策略取得了有意義的成功，一月和二月創紀錄的業績就說明了這一點。當我們的合作夥伴在三月最害怕的時候，#bettertogether 折扣——Better Together 是我們的核心價值之一，也是我們的主題標籤。我們向高級代理商提供的這些折扣幫助了這些小型企業經營者，並在最不確定和動盪的時期提高了保留率。我並不天真，但我要說的是，Better Together 向我們的合作夥伴展示了他們對我們的重要性，並且他們對此表示讚賞。這將會帶來紅利。

We continue to sharpen our skills in Zillow Offers, and we demonstrated significant progress this quarter by applying early learnings and getting smarter. Our sales velocity broke records in February and March, even as we adapted operations to comply with social distancing requirements. We did this without sacrificing unit economics as we continue to operate within the guideposts we set.

我們繼續提高 Zillow Offers 方面的技能，本季我們透過應用早期知識並變得更加聰明，取得了重大進展。儘管我們調整營運以遵守社交距離要求，但我們的銷售速度在 2 月和 3 月打破了記錄。我們在不犧牲單位經濟效益的情況下做到了這一點，因為我們繼續在我們設定的指導方針內運作。

We deliberately reduced our inventory through continued execution of buyer contracts, ending the first quarter with about 1,800 homes in inventory, a decrease of 1,000 homes from the end of 2019. Our decision in March to pause home acquisition for Zillow Offers was due to concerns about our ability to safely and legally conduct acquisition activities, which Fed concerns of a market hold.

我們透過繼續執行買家合約來有意減少庫存，第一季末庫存房屋約為 1,800 套，比 2019 年底減少了 1,000 套。我們在 3 月決定暫停 Zillow Offers 的房屋收購，因為擔心我們安全合法地進行收購活動的能力，這是聯準會擔心市場持有的。

While in crisis mode, we were very focused on inventory reduction to reduce enterprise risk. Inventory reduction is no longer our goal. We are actively planning to unfreeze Zillow Offers home buying. Internally, we call this Project Han Solo, although our time frozen in the carbonite will be shorter than Han Solo's was. We expect to begin home buying within the next few weeks. There are a number of factors we are considering that will influence the timing of the unpause, including: one, the health and safety of our employees, customers and partners; two, local orders and public health concerns; three, local housing market factors; and four, confidence in our ability to price and transact. Stay tuned.

在危機模式下，我們非常注重減少庫存，降低企業風險。減少庫存不再是我們的目標。我們正在積極計劃解凍 Zillow Offers 購房。在內部，我們稱之為“漢·索羅計劃”，儘管我們在碳酸鹽岩中凍結的時間會比漢·索羅的要短。我們預計在未來幾週內開始購屋。我們正在考慮許多因素會影響取消暫停的時間，包括：一是員工、客戶和合作夥伴的健康和安全；二、地方命令和公共衛生問題；三、當地房地產市場因素；第四，對我們定價和交易能力的信心。敬請關注。

During our last update, I walked through a severe stress test scenario for our business that demonstrated our ability to make it through a sustained market freeze. The lens we were peering through was foggy at the time, but the fog has cleared to a large extent. We still don't have perfect visibility, but the inputs are improving. The real estate market is predominantly open, and it's clear that we have passed peak fear.

在上次更新期間，我對我們的業務進行了嚴格的壓力測試場景，這證明了我們有能力度過持續的市場凍結。當時我們透過的鏡頭看到的是霧氣，但現在霧氣已經散了很多。我們仍然沒有完美的可見性，但投入正在改善。房地產市場基本上是開放的，很明顯，我們已經度過了恐懼的高峰期。

In our Q4 report in February, we talked about key priorities for the year that focused on executing growth and scaling our business. While we plan to return to these, we have adjusted our priorities for the age of COVID. These are: one, protect the enterprise, including protecting the health and safety of our people, customers and partners; two, reduce costs; three, accelerate technology to deliver seamless and now more virtual real estate shopping and transaction experiences, faster to the future as our team likes to say; four, enhance our relative competitive position to lead the industry to real estate 2.0. Overall, I'd say we feel very good about where we are and the key advantages that give us the flexibility and solid footing to be both bold and nimble.

在二月份的第四季報告中，我們討論了今年的主要優先事項，重點是執行成長和擴展業務。雖然我們計劃重返這些領域，但我們已經根據新冠疫情時代調整了優先事項。它們是：一是保護企業，包括保護我們的員工、顧客和合作夥伴的健康和安全；二、降低成本；第三，加速科技發展，以提供無縫且更虛擬的房地產購物和交易體驗，正如我們團隊常說的那樣，更快地走向未來；四、提升相對競爭地位，引領產業邁向房地產2.0。總的來說，我想說，我們對自己的現狀以及為我們提供靈活性和堅實基礎的關鍵優勢感到非常滿意，從而既大膽又靈活。

One piece of evidence of Zillow Group's agility is the adaptability with which our team responded to working from home starting March 10. We recently announced most employees will have the option to continue working remotely through at least the end of the year. We did this in order to give our employees the visibility and flexibility to make important life decisions, like did I renew my lease in the city or move closer to my family, without fear of losing their jobs. That, and we've been impressed by how productive people have been given the circumstances. Our valuable people have been truly appreciative of this flexibility, and this policy sets us up well to potentially take advantage of a whole new way to work post-COVID.

Zillow Group 敏捷性的一個證據是我們的團隊對 3 月 10 日開始在家工作的適應性。我們最近宣布，大多數員工將可以選擇在今年年底至少繼續遠距工作。我們這樣做是為了讓我們的員工能夠清楚、靈活地做出重要的人生決定，例如我是否續約了在城市的租約或搬到離家人更近的地方，而不必擔心失去工作。在這種情況下，人們的工作效率給我們留下了深刻的印象。我們寶貴的員工非常欣賞這種靈活性，這項政策使我們能夠很好地利用新冠疫情後的全新工作方式。

Turning to the future, we feel pretty darn good. We have seen all our metrics bounce off the bottom. Some metrics at the top of the funnel, like visits, have more fully recovered and are up -- more than fully recovered and are up double-digit percentages year-over-year, indicating to us even higher demand to move or at least fantasize about moving than before. The bottom of the funnel metrics took a bigger hit, but we are pleased to have largely maintained our Premier Agent monthly recurring revenue base.

展望未來，我們感覺非常好。我們已經看到我們的所有指標都從底部反彈。漏斗頂部的一些指標，例如訪問量，已經更完全恢復並且有所上升——超過完全恢復，並且同比增長了兩位數百分比，這向我們表明搬家或至少幻想的需求更高關於比以前移動。漏斗指標的底部受到了更大的打擊，但我們很高興在很大程度上維持了我們的高級代理商每月經常性收入基礎。

We are lucky that it's possible to shop for homes and close transactions without much human contact. That said, we are still watching antiquated processes. Like in-person appraisals, filings and closings cause unnecessary friction in real estate during this crucial time. If interested, check out my tweet from this morning, showing Dawn Lyon, our Corporate Relations Chief, signing her refi paperwork this past weekend with a ballpoint pen and ink-stamping thumbprints. Why? Time for a change.

我們很幸運，無需太多人際接觸即可購買房屋並完成交易。也就是說，我們仍在關注過時的流程。與現場評估一樣，在這個關鍵時期，備案和交割也會為房地產帶來不必要的摩擦。如果有興趣，請查看我今天早上的推文，其中顯示我們的企業關係主管 Dawn Lyon 在上週末用原子筆和墨水印指紋簽署了她的改裝文件。為什麼？改變的時候了。

Our proprietary 3D tours and floor plans, appointment-based virtual tours, physical self-tours, e-signings and remote closings are providing necessary solutions for social distancing today. Adoption is accelerating. Agents used Zillow's proprietary tech to create 525% more 3D home tours in April than in February. As customers embrace this new normal for virtual shopping and selling, we can allow agents to focus their manual high-touch services on high-intent qualified buyers who have already looked around, narrowed the field and are ready to make an offer.

我們專有的 3D 遊覽和平面圖、基於預約的虛擬遊覽、實體自助遊覽、電子簽名和遠端關閉為當今的社交距離提供了必要的解決方案。採用正在加速。代理商使用 Zillow 的專有技術在 4 月創造了比 2 月多 525% 的 3D 家庭旅遊。隨著客戶接受這種虛擬購物和銷售的新常態，我們可以允許代理商將他們的手動高接觸服務集中在已經環顧四周、縮小範圍並準備報價的高意向合格買家身上。

I just heard a great story of this coming to life from our Premier Agent, Chris Speicher, a member of our Agent Advisory Board, who said his team recently helped a Washington, D.C. area buyer who is facing the end of release but works night at the ICU at Walter Reed Medical Center. It is an extremely heart-wrenching, busy and dangerous time for this buyer to be at work, but our partner agent was able to use virtual tours and showings to help her narrow her choices on her schedule. She went under contract last weekend on a new home near the hospital, with a backyard fire pit that will give her a place to wind down after her shift.

我剛剛從我們的首席經紀人Chris Speicher（我們的經紀人顧問委員會成員）那裡聽到了一個關於這一點的精彩故事，他說他的團隊最近幫助了一位華盛頓特區的買家，該買家面臨著發布的結束，但在晚上工作沃爾特·里德醫療中心的 ICU。對於這位買家來說，這是一個極其令人心碎、忙碌和危險的工作時間，但我們的合作夥伴代理能夠使用虛擬參觀和看房來幫助她縮小日程安排的選擇範圍。上週末，她在醫院附近的新家簽訂了合同，後院有一個火坑，可以讓她在下班後有一個放鬆的地方。

Another great example of how this is unfolding before our eyes is our recent Zillow Offers customers, Esteban and Stacy Garza, who shopped for 2 years before they found their dream home, a Zillow Offers owned home outside of Phoenix last month. The timing intersected with stay-at-home orders and social distancing requirements, and the Garzas said the sale would not have happened without the flexibility and peace of mind that came with buying a nonowner-occupied home from Zillow, which allowed the inspector and appraiser to easily do their jobs. Now Esteban said they can take a deep breath and enjoy their beautiful new home.

另一個很好的例子就是我們最近的 Zillow Offers 客戶 Esteban 和 Stacy Garza，他們買了兩年才找到自己的夢想家園，即上個月位於鳳凰城郊外的 Zillow Offers 擁有的房屋。時機與居家令和社交距離要求交叉，加爾薩夫婦表示，如果沒有從Zillow 購買非業主自住房屋所帶來的靈活性和安心感，此次出售就不會發生，這使得檢查員和評估師能夠輕鬆完成自己的工作。現在埃斯特萬說他們可以深呼吸並享受他們美麗的新家了。

The virtual tools home shoppers need for safety today will become their expectations for convenience tomorrow. Our focus now is not just on managing our way through this crisis. We're also moving faster to the future. Our vision of Zillow 2.0 is becoming a reality even sooner than we had planned. Like we discussed with you during our pop-up call, successfully navigating storms requires the ability to know when to pull back and tap the brakes and when to hit the accelerator. We are beginning to see our passing lane.

今天家庭購物者安全所需的虛擬工具將成為他們對明天便利性的期望。我們現在的重點不僅僅是如何度過這場危機。我們也正在更快地邁向未來。我們對 Zillow 2.0 的願景正在成為現實，甚至比我們計劃的還要早。就像我們在彈出電話中與您討論的那樣，成功駕馭風暴需要能夠知道何時拉回並踩剎車以及何時踩油門。我們開始看到我們的超車道。

Make no mistake, we are clear-eyed about the public health and economic crisis on the ground and are doing what's right to actively support our employees, partners and communities. And we are mindful of how important it is for the company to have extra buffer for the uncertain future. But we are also not blind to the opportunities being unlocked to accelerate a new era for real estate.

毫無疑問，我們對當地的公共衛生和經濟危機有著清醒的認識，並正在採取正確的行動來積極支持我們的員工、合作夥伴和社區。我們意識到，為不確定的未來提供額外的緩衝對公司來說是多麼重要。但我們也並非對加速房地產新時代的機會視而不見。

We are not alone in this endeavor. We are leaning in to lead, working closely with our partners and industry leaders to move the entire category forward and ensure that no matter what happens in our world, we can assure our customers that real estate is always on to help them move safely into life's next chapter. We are ready. Our customers are ready. Time is now.

在這項努力中，我們並不孤單。我們致力於引領，與我們的合作夥伴和行業領導者密切合作，推動整個類別向前發展，並確保無論我們的世界發生什麼，我們都可以向我們的客戶保證，房地產始終在幫助他們安全地進入生活。下一章。我們準備好了。我們的客戶已經準備好了。時間就是現在。

Thank you for your partnership and support of us in these unique times. I'll now turn over the call to Allen to walk you through Q1 results and Q2 outlook, and then we'll take your questions.

感謝您在這個特殊時期對我們的合作與支持。我現在將把電話轉給艾倫，向您介紹第一季的業績和第二季的前景，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Thank you, Rich. I'm going to summarize a few key financial results from the first quarter before discussing our outlook for Q2. Overall, we are pleased with our Q1 results as we met or exceeded our revenue and EBITDA outlook both in total and for each of our segments despite headwinds in March because of the coronavirus pandemic.

謝謝你，里奇。在討論我們對第二季的展望之前，我將總結第一季的一些關鍵財務表現。總體而言，我們對第一季的業績感到滿意，因為儘管3 月份因冠狀病毒大流行而遇到阻力，但我們的總體收入和EBITDA 預期以及每個部門的收入和EBITDA 均達到或超過了預期。

We reported Q1 consolidated revenue of $1.1 billion, up 148% year-over-year. The outperformance in revenue was due primarily to strong sales execution in our Homes segment. Our enhanced resell strategies accelerated home sales to the highest velocity realized in our Zillow Offers business since inception and did so without sacrificing unit economics. Our consolidated EBITDA outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected leverage from operational rigor in all 3 of our segments.

我們報告第一季綜合收入為 11 億美元，年增 148%。營收的優異表現主要歸功於我們住宅業務領域強勁的銷售執行力。我們增強的轉售策略將 Zillow Offers 業務自成立以來的房屋銷售速度提高到了最高水平，並且沒有犧牲單位經濟效益。我們的綜合 EBITDA 優異表現是由我們所有 3 個部門的嚴格運作帶來的槓桿作用強於預期推動的。

It was great to see IMT segment revenue, including our Premier Agent revenue, return to double-digit year-over-year growth in Q1 while substantially expanding IMT segment EBITDA margin. We accelerated revenue growth for the IMT segment and for Premier Agent revenue from 6% year-over-year growth in Q4 to 11% year-over-year growth in Q1. IMT segment revenue was $331 million in the first quarter, at the high end of our outlook, even with the impact from discounts provided to our partners. We estimate that the delayed revenue headwind from the previously announced Flex testing reduced our Premier Agent Q1 year-over-year revenue growth rate by approximately 460 basis points.

很高興看到 IMT 部門收入（包括我們的高級代理收入）在第一季恢復兩位數同比增長，同時大幅擴大 IMT 部門 EBITDA 利潤率。我們加快了 IMT 部門和高級代理收入的收入成長，從第四季度的年增 6% 到第一季的年增 11%。第一季 IMT 部門營收為 3.31 億美元，處於我們預期的上限，即使受到向合作夥伴提供的折扣的影響。我們估計，先前宣布的 Flex 測試帶來的延遲收入逆風使我們的 Premier Agent 第一季營收年增率降低了約 460 個基點。

IMT EBITDA margin expanded more than expected, improving by 540 basis points year-over-year, which includes approximately 160 basis points of net benefit from unplanned cost and revenue actions in response to coronavirus outbreak. It's also important to note that this quarter faced a 290 basis point headwind from favorable onetime benefits in Q1 2019 EBITDA margin. The underlying inputs that we see in our IMT businesses give us confidence that when we exit this current period of economic uncertainty, we are well positioned to come out competitively stronger.

IMT EBITDA 利潤率增幅超出預期，較去年同期提高 540 個基點，其中包括因應對冠狀病毒爆發而採取的計劃外成本和收入行動帶來的約 160 個基點的淨收益。另外需要注意的是，由於 2019 年第一季 EBITDA 利潤率的有利一次性效益，本季面臨 290 個基點的逆風。我們在 IMT 業務中看到的基本投入讓我們相信，當我們擺脫當前的經濟不確定時期時，我們將處於有利地位，從而具有更強的競爭力。

Homes segment revenue increased $641 million year-over-year to $770 million, exceeding our outlook. Average return on homes sold before interest expense was a profit of $140 per home or 4 basis points as a percentage of revenue. This is up from a loss of 48 basis points in Q4 2019 and within our expected range of plus or minus 200 basis point guardrails we have provided. As we've said in the past, we expect unit economics to fluctuate within this target range, and we are pleased with our Q1 results, especially in light of the circumstances. Homes segment EBITDA loss of $75 million was also better than our outlook as both gross profit and operating costs were better than expected.

住宅部門營收年增 6.41 億美元，達到 7.7 億美元，超出了我們的預期。扣除利息費用之前出售房屋的平均回報率為每套房屋 140 美元的利潤，或占收入的 4 個基點的百分比。這高於 2019 年第四季 48 個基點的損失，並且在我們提供的正負 200 個基點護欄的預期範圍內。正如我們過去所說，我們預計單位經濟效益將在此目標範圍內波動，我們對第一季的業績感到滿意，特別是考慮到當前的情況。住宅業務 EBITDA 虧損 7,500 萬美元也優於我們的預期，因為毛利和營運成本都比預期好。

We continue to make progress on building out our Mortgages segment. Despite unprecedented volatility in interest rates that pressured our margins on the resale of mortgage loans, our experienced Mortgages team delivered better-than-expected EBITDA due to nimble product and operational focus.

我們在建立抵押貸款業務方面繼續取得進展。儘管前所未有的利率波動對我們的抵押貸款轉售利潤帶來壓力，但我們經驗豐富的抵押貸款團隊憑藉著靈活的產品和營運重點，實現了好於預期的 EBITDA。

As we've stated on previous earnings calls, my focus as CFO continues to be establishing processes and mechanisms in support of 3 key priorities. Those priorities are: scaling our new businesses, executing within our IMT segment in order to fund investments in new segments along with additional growth opportunities and implementing focused cost discipline and operational rigor across the company as we scale. During this uncertain time, the team and I have also focused on liquidity preservation to protect the enterprise and ensure we are well positioned to execute on opportunities to lead the industry to real estate 2.0.

正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上所說，作為財務官，我的重點仍然是建立支援 3 個關鍵優先事項的流程和機制。這些優先事項是：擴大我們的新業務，在我們的IMT 部門內執行，以便為新部門的投資以及額外的成長機會提供資金，並在我們擴大規模時在整個公司實施集中的成本控制和嚴格的營運.在這個不確定的時期，我和團隊也專注於保存流動性，以保護企業，並確保我們處於有利位置，抓住機遇，引領產業邁向房地產 2.0。

We ended the quarter with $2.6 billion in cash and investments, the highest balances in our history, up from $2.4 billion at the end of December. I am pleased with how we've executed on these priorities in Q1. While we did not plan for a global pandemic, our strategic position, operational rigor during 2019 and strong balance sheet put us in a solid position to successfully and flexibly navigate the current period of economic uncertainty.

本季結束時，我們的現金和投資為 26 億美元，這是我們歷史上最高的餘額，高於 12 月底的 24 億美元。我對我們在第一季度執行這些優先事項的方式感到滿意。雖然我們沒有為全球大流行做好準備，但我們的戰略地位、2019 年的嚴謹營運以及強勁的資產負債表使我們處於有利地位，能夠成功、靈活地應對當前的經濟不確定時期。

Before moving to Q2 outlook, I would like to update you on the severe stress test that we discussed on our March 23 pop-up investor call. We have updated our severe test modeling using the same framework, which is assuming 75% reduction in pre-coronavirus revenue levels for IMT and Mortgages segments and having to repurchase most of the homes inventory with cash from our balance sheet. Under this scenario, we expect that we would end the year with $1.7 billion in cash and investments, up from the $1.35 billion previously discussed on our March 23 call, due primarily to continued strong results since the start of Q2 and continued selling of inventory since our March 23 call. That said, such a severe scenario seems increasingly unlikely given the favorable demand indicators we've seen over just the past 5 weeks.

在展望第二季之前，我想向您介紹我們在 3 月 23 日臨時投資者電話會議上討論的嚴峻壓力測試的最新情況。我們使用相同的框架更新了嚴格的測試模型，假設 IMT 和抵押貸款部門在冠狀病毒爆發前的收入水平下降 75%，並且必須用資產負債表中的現金回購大部分房屋庫存。在這種情況下，我們預計年底將擁有17 億美元的現金和投資，高於我們先前在3 月23 日電話會議上討論的13.5 億美元，這主要是由於自第二季開始以來持續強勁的業績以及自第二季以來持續出售庫存。我們 3 月 23 日的電話會議。儘管如此，鑑於過去 5 週我們看到的有利需求指標，這種嚴重情況的可能性似乎越來越小。

Next, I'd like to provide some additional thoughts about our Q2 outlook and what our inputs indicate as our likely trajectory heading into Q3 in the absence of providing full year guidance. As we've indicated during our late March investor call, we will be providing quarterly guidance only for the time being due to the uncertainty of the current operating environment. We expect Premier Agent revenue to decline temporarily in the second quarter to between $165 million to $175 million, primarily due to the discounts we provided to our Premier Agent partners. As Rich mentioned, the strong rebound in site traffic and agent connections we experienced in April and continue to see thus far in May have alleviated much of the pressure on issuing discounts. We have not yet determined what discount, if any, we will provide in late May for the following month, but we have assumed some discount levels in our outlook into June.

接下來，我想就我們的第二季前景提供一些額外的想法，以及我們的投入表明，在沒有提供全年指導的情況下，我們進入第三季的可能軌跡。正如我們在 3 月底的投資者電話會議上表示的那樣，由於當前營運環境的不確定性，我們暫時僅提供季度指引。我們預計第二季高級代理收入將暫時下降至 1.65 億美元至 1.75 億美元之間，這主要是由於我們向高級代理合作夥伴提供的折扣。正如 Rich 所提到的，我們在 4 月經歷的網站流量和代理商連線的強勁反彈，以及 5 月迄今為止的情況，在很大程度上緩解了發放折扣的壓力。我們尚未確定將在 5 月下旬為下個月提供何種折扣（如果有的話），但我們在 6 月的展望中假設了一些折扣水準。

We also expect other revenue within our IMT segment to be down sequentially. Despite strong results in our rentals business outside of New York, our StreetEasy brand is experiencing declining revenue due to the shelter-in-place orders. We are also seeing some pressure in some of the shorter-term advertising-related products for display and new construction. We do expect these to recover as health conditions improve and shelter-in-place orders begin to lift. In light of the temporary revenue decline and inclusive of cost actions we've described, we expect IMT segment EBITDA for the second quarter to be in the range of $20 million to $30 million, improving throughout each month during the quarter.

我們也預計 IMT 部門的其他收入將環比下降。儘管我們在紐約以外的租賃業務取得了強勁的業績，但由於就地避難令，我們的 StreetEasy 品牌的收入正在下降。我們也看到一些用於展示和新建的短期廣告相關產品面臨一些壓力。我們確實預計，隨著健康狀況的改善和就地避難令的開始解除，這些情況將會恢復。鑑於暫時的收入下降以及我們所描述的成本行動，我們預計第二季度 IMT 部門的 EBITDA 將在 2000 萬美元至 3000 萬美元之間，並且該季度每個月都會有所改善。

In the Homes segment, we expect total revenue to decline sequentially in light of the lower inventory balance going into the quarter. We expect Homes segment revenue to be between $325 million and $350 million for the quarter. We expect Homes segment EBITDA to be between a loss of $70 million and $80 million. As Rich mentioned, we are actively planning to unpause Zillow Offers home acquisitions. However, we do not expect Q2 results to be materially impacted by this unpausing.

在住宅領域，由於本季庫存餘額較低，我們預計總收入將季減。我們預計本季住宅部門的營收將在 3.25 億美元至 3.5 億美元之間。我們預計住宅部門 EBITDA 的虧損將在 7,000 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元之間。正如 Rich 所提到的，我們正在積極計劃取消 Zillow Offers 房屋收購的暫停。然而，我們預計第二季的業績不會受到這種取消暫停的重大影響。

With regard to our Mortgages segment, we expect revenue to be between $17 million and $20 million and EBITDA to be within a loss of $12 million and $9 million. The sequential decline from Q1 reflects current conditions in our marketplace businesses as there is less demand for lower credit score leads due to tightened underwriting in the financial sector.

至於我們的抵押貸款部門，我們預計收入將在 1700 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間，EBITDA 將在虧損 1200 萬美元至 900 萬美元之間。自第一季以來的連續下降反映了我們市場業務的當前狀況，因為由於金融領域承保收緊，對較低信用評分線索的需求減少。

Overall, Zillow is on strong footing today despite the unexpectedly complex and rapidly changing environment around us. Our balance sheet is strong. Our demand indicators have largely recovered from their recent lows, and our platform and partners are well positioned and ready to help our customers move safely into the next chapter of their lives.

總體而言，儘管我們周圍的環境異常複雜且瞬息萬變，但 Zillow 今天仍然站穩了腳跟。我們的資產負債表強勁。我們的需求指標已從最近的低點基本恢復，我們的平台和合作夥伴已做好準備，準備幫助我們的客戶安全地進入生活的下一個篇章。

And with that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

接線員，接下來我們將開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Ron Josey of JMP Securities.

（操作員指令）第一個問題來自 JMP 證券的 Ron Josey。

Glad to hear everyone again and really glad to see the rebound as much as we're seeing, so great to see. And Rich, I wanted to dig in a little bit more on the PA business, and I'm sure we'll get more later in the call around the Homes business. But on PA specifically and the new chart, I think, on Page 11 of the letter, talks -- basically goes through the monthly trends for Zillow Group visits, MRR index and the revenue index. And with traffic rebounding as much as it is here from the lows in March, I just want to understand a little bit more how -- why the revenue index perhaps isn't rising as fast as the traffic? Understood the Better Together discounts has an impact, and there's more targeted discounts potentially coming. But maybe you can help us just understand how you're thinking about the PA business and how it recovers this traffic as that leading indicator.

很高興能再次聽到大家的聲音，也很高興看到我們所看到的反彈，真是太高興了。 Rich，我想深入了解 PA 業務，我相信我們稍後會在有關住宅業務的電話中得到更多資訊。但具體到 PA 和新圖表，我認為在信件的第 11 頁上，談話基本上涵蓋了 Zillow Group 訪問量、MRR 指數和收入指數的每月趨勢。隨著流量從 3 月的低點反彈，我只是想更多地了解為什麼收入指數可能沒有像流量一樣快速增長？了解 Better Together 折扣會產生影響，並可能推出更多有針對性的折扣。但也許您可以幫助我們了解您如何看待 PA 業務以及它如何恢復流量作為領先指標。

Thanks, Ron. Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll throw that one over to Allen, I think.

謝謝，羅恩。謝謝你的提問。我想也許我會把這個交給艾倫。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ron. And Rich, jump in as you need to. So first, Ron, we provided this chart to help -- we thought there was a need to provide a little more clarity as to our input trends that we're seeing through the period and the related impact on some of our business outputs and not just at quarter points but throughout the period. And what this chart kind of -- what it does reflect is a strong start in the Q1 reflecting the momentum we had coming out of Q4 and the continued strength of all of those trends through January and February.

是的。謝謝你的提問，羅恩。里奇，如果你需要的話，就加入吧。因此，首先，羅恩，我們提供了這張圖表來提供幫助 - 我們認為有必要更清楚地說明我們在此期間看到的輸入趨勢以及對我們某些業務產出的相關影響，而不是只是在四分之一點，但在整個期間。這張圖表所反映的是第一季的強勁開局，反映了我們從第四季度出來的勢頭以及整個一月和二月所有這些趨勢的持續強勁。

What you can see though is a dislocation of our input metrics in mid-March, and we took a quick action that we discussed in our March 23 call and made a broad 50% Better Together discount to support our partner base, and that allowed us to maintain much of our monthly recurring revenue base, which is what -- the intent was to work with our agents but protect our base. And after the initial round of discounts, and you see that flow through revenue on a lag basis as those discounts work through, in the next period, while we were seeing some input trends improve, we also were seeing, in some areas, still some challenges. So we utilize a much more targeted market-based discount, which resulted in discounts coming in about half of the initial discount level that we made in the first part of the month. And you see those flow through the chart.

不過，您可以看到，我們在3 月中旬的輸入指標出現了混亂，我們採取了在3 月23 日電話會議中討論過的快速行動，並提供了廣泛的50% Better Together 折扣來支持我們的合作夥伴群，這使我們能夠維持我們每月的經常性收入基礎，這就是目的 - 目的是與我們的代理商合作，但保護我們的基礎。在第一輪折扣之後，您會看到隨著這些折扣的發揮，收入流會在下一個時期出現滯後，雖然我們看到一些投入趨勢有所改善，但我們也看到，在某些領域，仍然有一些挑戰。因此，我們利用了更有針對性的基於市場的折扣，這導致折扣約為我們在本月上半月制定的初始折扣水平的一半。您可以在圖表中看到這些流程。

As of today, as Rich mentioned, we're seeing a lot of our input levels back to pre-coronavirus levels, and we continue to monitor these at local markets. So while we have not determined yet what, if any, discounts we'll provide for June, our outlook does assume there is some continued level of discounts in the quarter, and that's what reflects the revenue slowly coming back up. We believe, in summary, that this action and leveraging this tool with the discount allowed us to largely retain the majority of our MRR base that we came into the year with. And so we feel like we're really well positioned with our partners coming out of Q2.

正如里奇所提到的，截至今天，我們看到許多投入水平回到了冠狀病毒爆發前的水平，我們將繼續在當地市場監控這些投入水平。因此，雖然我們尚未確定 6 月將提供哪些折扣（如果有的話），但我們的前景確實假設該季度​​將有一定程度的持續折扣，這反映了收入正在緩慢回升。總而言之，我們相信，這一行動以及利用該工具的折扣使我們能夠在很大程度上保留我們今年的大部分 MRR 基礎。因此，我們覺得從第二季開始，我們與合作夥伴的關係確實處於有利位置。

Your next question is from John Campbell of Stephens.

您的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的約翰坎貝爾。

If you could just maybe talk a bit...

如果你能稍微談談的話...

I no longer hear Sheryl.

我再也聽不到謝麗爾的聲音了。

Rich, you there?

里奇，你在嗎？

This is Rich.

這是里奇。

Rich, are you there?

瑞奇，你在嗎？

Rich, we could hear you. I expect you can hear me.

里奇，我們聽得到你的聲音。我希望你能聽到我的聲音。

Yes, I can hear you guys. Rich, I'd appreciate if you could maybe just talk to the competitive environment. Obviously, everybody is kind of managing on the fly, things have changed a lot. But how have things shifted in the market over the, call it, the last month or 2?

是的，我聽得到你們的聲音。 Rich，如果您能談談競爭環境，我將不勝感激。顯然，每個人都在忙著管理，事情已經發生了很大變化。但在過去一兩個月裡，市場發生了什麼樣的變化呢？

Yes. I mean it's tough out there, of course. And I guess I'd broadly say -- well, I guess I'd first say that coincident with the arrival of Allen Parker to the company -- I don't know how long ago that was now, Allen, about 18 months? Feels longer than that. We embarked on getting fit. Allen have Project Airstream, and he is teaching the company how to get fit. And so we were well on our way to being very fit coming into this crisis. But from a competitive advantage perspective, I really feel like this situation has enhanced our competitive position. We have the biggest brand and the biggest audience. And in these kinds of times, people tend to fall back on familiar and trusted and big brands. I think you're seeing that across industries right now. We have a really strong balance sheet, the strongest balance sheet in the industry, which is also terrific to have in a situation like now. We have the best partners. We have the best products in tech. We have the best services. All these things make me feel good.

是的。當然，我的意思是外面很難。我想我會廣泛地說——嗯，我想我首先會說，與艾倫·帕克(Allen Parker) 來到公司同時發生——我不知道那是多久以前的事情了，艾倫，大約18個月？感覺比那還長。我們開始健身。艾倫有 Airstream 計劃，他正在教公司如何保持健康。因此，我們正順利應對這場危機。但從競爭優勢的角度來看，我確實覺得這種情況增強了我們的競爭地位。我們擁有最大的品牌和最多的受眾。在這樣的時代，人們往往會求助於熟悉、值得信賴的大品牌。我想你現在在各個行業都看到了這一點。我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，是業界最強大的資產負債表，在現在的情況下也很棒。我們有最好的合作夥伴。我們擁有最好的技術產品。我們有最好的服務。所有這些事情都讓我感覺很好。

Turning to the partner side, there are probably fewer choices on how to market themselves and how to generate customer demand, how to generate relationships and generate commissions. And so we may be finding that they're focusing their marketing energies on Zillow and Zillow Group's brands. We're also advantaged because we're seeing -- like in so many industries that you guys are looking at, you're seeing -- really, you're seeing years of technology progress get accelerated down into months. And as the leaders -- as the tech leaders in this industry, we are in a position to lead, and we're the beneficiaries of that. As I said in my script, I said something like today's necessity for this kind of distance shopping and buying is tomorrow's expectation because, of course, virtual buying, rich media experiences, 3D floor plans, virtual touring, electronic trafficking of documents and signing of documents, that's all exactly what people -- what people's expectations for a 2020 industry, how it should operate. But today's real estate industry has not been operating that way. It's been operating as if it's been back in the 1960s or '70s.

轉向合作夥伴方面，如何推銷自己、如何產生客戶需求、如何建立關係和產生佣金，可能選擇較少。因此，我們可能會發現他們將行銷精力集中在 Zillow 和 Zillow Group 的品牌上。我們也有優勢，因為我們看到——就像你們正在關注的許多行業一樣——實際上，你們看到多年的技術進步加速到了幾個月。作為領導者——作為這個行業的技術領導者，我們有能力發揮領導作用，我們也是受益者。正如我在劇本中所說，我說今天這種遠端購物和購買的必要性就是明天的期望，因為當然，虛擬購買、富媒體體驗、3D 平面圖、虛擬旅遊、電子文件交易和簽署文件，這正是人們對2020 年產業的期望，它應該如何運作。但今天的房地產行業並不是這樣運作的。它的運作方式就像回到了 20 世紀 60 年代或 70 年代。

Anyway, because of all that, we're in a really fantastic position to accelerate out of this period of uncertainty. And as we've said, we're seeing a lot of green signals. Lights that were red only 2 months ago are moving through yellow and beginning to flash green. And so we're not out of the woods yet, but we're moving with a lot more confidence.

無論如何，正因為如此，我們處於一個非常有利的位置，可以加速走出這段不確定的時期。正如我們所說，我們看到了很多綠色信號。兩個月前還是紅色的燈現在已經變成黃色並開始閃爍綠色。因此，我們還沒有走出困境，但我們正在更有自信地前進。

That's helpful. And a quick follow-up. And Rich, I agree with you. I think we're going to enter a new normal kind of coming out of this pandemic. On the spike in virtual tours, like, to me, that's not really a flash in the pan. I think that sticks, and it's going to be part of the new kind of process of buying homes. If that's the case, I'm just curious, near term, what you guys are seeing, if that's helping drive connections. To me, it feels like it's helping lead homebuyers to an action or it's bringing them a little further down the funnel and creating a better connection. Are you guys seeing that? And do you expect that to continue, if so?

這很有幫助。並快速跟進。里奇，我同意你的觀點。我認為我們將在擺脫這場大流行之後進入一種新常態。對我來說，虛擬旅遊的激增並不是曇花一現。我認為這種情況會持續下去，並且將成為新型購屋流程的一部分。如果是這樣的話，我只是好奇，近期你們所看到的，是否有助於推動聯繫。對我來說，感覺它正在幫助引導購屋者採取行動，或者讓他們在管道中走得更遠並建立更好的聯繫。你們看到了嗎？如果是的話，您預計這種情況會持續下去嗎？

Yes. We are seeing it. We're seeing a more qualified buyer show up because of it. And we're seeing -- interestingly, I don't know what -- Allen, what was our comment -- what did we release on connections? I mean connections are good, and the buyers are more qualified. And yes, it's just completely obvious that the industry has been really, really resistant to even the most basic media enhancements in the systems that run the business. I mean -- and we've been trying for years to get our partners and owners and sellers to use all of this technology that we've been working on for a long time. But you know what, they don't really need to. They don't really need to. And so adoption was not that fast. Now it's happening really, really quickly. So we're not going back. This is now people's expectation.

是的。我們正在看到它。因此，我們看到了更合格的買家出現。我們看到 - 有趣的是，我不知道什麼 - 艾倫，我們的評論是什麼 - 我們在聯繫上發布了什麼？我的意思是，人脈關係良好，買家也更有資格。是的，很明顯，該行業確實非常抵制運行業務的系統中最基本的媒體增強功能。我的意思是——多年來我們一直在努力讓我們的合作夥伴、業主和賣家使用我們長期以來一直在研究的所有這些技術。但你知道嗎，他們其實並不需要這樣做。他們真的不需要。因此採用速度並沒有那麼快。現在它發生得非常非常快。所以我們不會回去。這是現在人們的期望。

Your next question is from Maria Ripps of Canaccord.

您的下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps。

Hope everyone is doing well. You shared a lot of interesting commentary about the housing market in the shareholder letter. I would love to hear your perspective in a little more detail on what you're seeing in the real estate market, how you're positioned relative to that. And maybe, again, how are you leveraging your tech capabilities to navigate this environment?

希望每個人都做得很好。您在股東信中分享了許多關於房地產市場的有趣評論。我很想更詳細地了解您對房地產市場的看法，以及您相對於此的定位。也許，您如何利用您的技術能力來駕馭這種環境？

Yes. Okay. Maria, this is Rich. So I guess my first comment, and part of the answer, I would say that the real estate market that COVID weighted into in a very uninvited and rude way was a strong one, okay? So we went -- the industry went into this in good shape and strong. Back when we were having peak fear around the end of March -- middle to the end of March, we didn't know if the market would continue to function properly because of safety concerns or legal concerns, and we thought that the market might close, we and everybody else. And it's very clear from the data that we're reporting now and the data you're getting from other sources that the market is open, okay? It's not where it was exactly. Shopping is more than where it was, but transactions are not quite where they were. They're recovering on kind of a checkmark -- in a checkmark pattern, as you can see from that exhibit in the shareholder letter. But the market is open. So top of funnel, rebound. Bottom of funnel, a little bit slower.

是的。好的。瑪麗亞，這是里奇。所以我想我的第一條評論，也是答案的一部分，我會說，新冠疫情以一種非常不請自來和粗魯的方式介入的房地產市場是一個強勁的市場，好嗎？所以我們就開始了——這個行業以良好的狀態和強勁的勢頭進入了這個行業。當我們在三月底左右陷入最恐慌的時候——三月中下旬，我們不知道市場是否會因為安全問題或法律問題而繼續正常運作，我們認為市場可能會關閉、我們和其他人。從我們現在報告的數據以及您從其他來源獲得的數據中可以清楚地看出市場是開放的，好嗎？它不是原來的地方。購物比以前多了，但交易卻大不如前。他們正在以一種複選標記的方式恢復——以復選標記的形式，正如你從股東信中的展示中看到的那樣。但市場是開放的。所以漏斗頂部，反彈。漏斗底部，速度慢一點。

So as I said, we are fortunate to be in a business -- I mean we're not like a restaurant or a shopping mall. Shopping and transactions can happen without a lot of human contact in real estate, and people are figuring that out. And even as future -- if and as future waves of COVID hit, we are now putting all of the procedures, the kind of clean, mask, distance, all of the stuff that we need to do to get in place to allow shoppers to shop safely and to transact safely.

正如我所說，我們很幸運能夠從事一家企業——我的意思是我們不像一家餐廳或購物中心。在房地產領域，購物和交易可以在沒有大量人際接觸的情況下進行，人們正在弄清楚這一點。即使未來，如果未來一波新冠疫情來襲，我們現在也會採取所有程序，例如清潔、口罩、距離，以及我們需要採取的所有措施，讓購物者能夠安全購物並安全交易。

Interestingly, mortgage rates are really low right now for those who can qualify, and that's encouraging for the industry. But new listings are down, which means inventory is low for those shopping. So if you pair this kind of low inventory with high demand -- I've heard said internally, there are lots of fish biting but just not a lot of bait in the water. We've got to figure out -- so prices have stayed up. Supply and demand has had prices stay relatively level. And we're -- and our Econ team is not forecasting that prices come down that much. Our challenge now will be to educate the industry and educate sellers on the fact that it is actually a pretty interesting time to throw some bait in the water, if you want. If you want to move, the market is there, demand is there. And so we're working on how to educate people as to that and as well the whole industry is.

有趣的是，對於那些有資格的人來說，抵押貸款利率現在確實很低，這對該行業來說是令人鼓舞的。但新掛牌量下降，這意味著購物者的庫存量較低。因此，如果你將這種低庫存與高需求結合起來——我聽說內部有人說，有很多魚咬鉤，但水中的餌料並不多。我們必須弄清楚——所以價格一直在上漲。供需關係使價格維持在相對水準。我們的經濟團隊預計價格不會下降那麼多。我們現在的挑戰是教育產業和賣家，讓他們知道如果你願意的話，現在實際上是一個非常有趣的時機。如果你想搬家，市場就在那裡，需求就在那裡。因此，我們正在研究如何教育人們以及整個產業。

Anyway, I hope that helps. We have very talented Econ team that has published a lot of stuff that we refer to in the letter that you can dig through on your own, too. Thanks, Maria.

無論如何，我希望這會有所幫助。我們有非常有才華的經濟團隊，他們發表了很多我們在信中提到的內容，您也可以自己挖掘。謝謝，瑪麗亞。

Your next question is from Lauren Cassel of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的勞倫‧卡塞爾。

It's Brian on for Lauren. Just had 2 questions for you, Rich. I guess the first one, maybe sort of talk to us about how post-COVID, post-downturn, how do you think about any real structural changes in the real estate industry that you see developing? And talk about the investments that you need to make at Zillow to really capitalize and drive those. And then secondly, where is sort of your head on the timing to roll out Flex into more markets as the economy kind of starts to light up in the back half?

布萊恩替勞倫上場。里奇，我有兩個問題想問你。我想第一個可能是和我們談談在新冠疫情之後、經濟低迷之後，您如何看待您認為正在發展的房地產行業的任何真正的結構性變化？並討論您需要在 Zillow 進行哪些投資才能真正利用並推動這些投資。其次，隨著下半年經濟開始復甦，您對將 Flex 推廣到更多市場的時機有何看法？

Brian, yes. Post-COVID, like, yes, I mean we were chatting about that before, this is not going to -- we're not going to bounce back to the way things were done before. We're seeing all kinds of systems, processes, business models, players change right now. And there are going to be a bunch of sad stories there, but there are going to be a bunch of happy progress for consumers and for the industry as a result. A lot of the technology that I've already been talking about, this kind of real estate 2.0, a modern platform for virtual shopping and digital closing, that's all -- it's just -- it's really rapidly progressing right now, and that's not going to go back either.

布萊恩，是的。在新冠疫情之後，是的，我的意思是我們之前討論過這個問題，但這不會——我們不會回到以前的做法。我們現在看到各種系統、流程、商業模式、參與者都在改變。那裡將會有很多悲傷的故事，但對於消費者和整個產業來說，將會有很多令人高興的進步。我已經討論過的很多技術，這種房地產 2.0，一個用於虛擬購物和數字結算的現代平台，僅此而已 - 它只是 - 現在正在快速發展，而且不會發生要么回去。

I think there's an interesting one that is kind of a question right now. I think we all kind of feel all -- a lot of pent-up demand to move. That may be too simple a way to put it. We're all rethinking how we live, where we live, the structure of where we live. I'm right now in my bedroom because I have 3 kids on Zoom school right now at -- all over the house. I don't have an office in my house. My dad had an office when I was growing up. I never saw the need for an office. Well, I see the need now. All of a sudden, I have there a need. There are people certainly who don't want to live in the city anymore. They may want to live somewhere else. I do think we're going to see a lot of companies, including Zillow, get a lot more permissive and accepting and embracing of people who might want to work from anywhere.

我認為現在有一個有趣的問題。我想我們都感受到了──大量被壓抑的搬家需求。這樣說可能太簡單了。我們都在重新思考我們的生活方式、我們的居住地點以及我們居住地點的結構。我現在在我的臥室裡，因為我有 3 個孩子在 Zoom 學校上學——遍布整個房子。我家裡沒有辦公室。在我成長的過程中，我父親有一間辦公室。我從來沒有意識到需要一間辦公室。嗯，我現在看到了需要。突然間，我有一個需要。一定有人不想再住在城市了。他們可能想住在其他地方。我確實認為我們將看到包括 Zillow 在內的許多公司對那些可能想要在任何地方工作的人更加寬容、接受和擁抱。

And all -- so all of these factors -- plus economic turmoil will dislocate people, too. But all of these factors are leading to what I'm thinking of as this great reshuffling. We're all going to -- a whole bunch of us who are able to, force to or have the means to are going to reshuffle where and the way we live our lives as a result of this. So this is a major thing. Well, at least, we view this as a major thing. And this part of it, at least, is leading me to believe that we're going to see the great unsticking of the housing market. The housing market has been stuck since the global financial crisis in this weird, artificially low volume liquidity state. And it just feels to me like this is going to be the thing that gets it unstuck. On Flex...

所有這些因素加上經濟動盪也會讓人流離失所。但所有這些因素都導致了我所認為的這次偉大的洗牌。我們所有人都將因此而重新調整我們的生活方式和生活方式。所以這是一件大事。好吧，至少我們認為這是一件大事。至少這一部分讓我相信我們將看到房地產市場的巨大解體。自全球金融危機以來，房地產市場一直陷入這種奇怪的、人為的低流動性狀態。我只是覺得這將是讓它擺脫困境的原因。在柔性上...

Got it. Great. And then just -- yes.

知道了。偉大的。然後就是——是的。

It was so long ago that I -- I was talking for so long that I almost successfully dodged the Flex question. We don't have any...

很久以前，我——我說了這麼長時間，以至於我幾乎成功地迴避了 Flex 問題。我們沒有任何...

Can't shovel away from that.

無法剷除它。

We're really glad, like, we're so happy we have Flex in our quiver. We're so happy that we have that as a weapon right now and a tool because, as you might imagine, pay later might be pretty attractive in a time when commission income is down for our partners. And so we're really excited we have that in our quiver. We don't have anything new to report. We're methodically testing with a few additional kind of high-performing partners this quarter as we -- just like we previously announced. Regardless of business model, what we're doing -- what we're trying to do is create a better customer satisfaction experience for our customers, more money for our partners, with better partners and higher revenue and profit per lead. And we are looking at this as kind of an optimization problem, if this was a, I don't know, problem -- optimization opportunity at this point and working with different model -- different business models to achieve those goals is what we're focused on.

我們真的很高興，我們很高興我們的箭袋裡有 Flex。我們很高興現在擁有它作為武器和工具，因為正如您可能想像的那樣，在我們合作夥伴的佣金收入下降的情況下，稍後付款可能非常有吸引力。所以我們真的很興奮我們的箭袋裡有它。我們沒有任何新消息要報告。正如我們之前宣布的那樣，本季度我們正在系統地與其他一些高效能合作夥伴進行測試。無論商業模式如何，我們正在做的事情- 我們正在努力做的是為我們的客戶創造更好的客戶滿意度體驗，為我們的合作夥伴創造更多的錢，與更好的合作夥伴以及更高的每條線索的收入和利潤。我們將其視為一種最佳化問題，如果這是一個我不知道的問題——此時的最佳化機會，並使用不同的模型——不同的商業模式來實現這些目標，這就是我們的目標重新專注於。

Your next question is from Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的希思·特里。

Great. Just to dig a little bit into the Flex side of things further. I guess, one -- and realize that this obviously has disrupted any chance of sort of having understandable metrics or trends or anything in any part of the business. But just any update on sort of what you are, or maybe were, seeing or just sort of how conversion rates or your feeling about the impact that, that business is having on customer satisfaction, agent close rates, agent ROIs would be helpful, understanding that it's all sort of taken within the context that we are in a very different world at the moment and probably will be for a while.

偉大的。只是為了進一步深入了解 Flex 方面的內容。我想，一個 - 並且意識到這顯然破壞了任何在業務的任何部分擁有可理解的指標或趨勢或任何內容的機會。但是，任何有關您現在或可能曾經看到的內容或只是轉換率或您對該業務對客戶滿意度、代理關閉率、代理投資回報率的影響的感受的任何更新都會有所幫助，了解這一切都是在這樣的背景下進行的：我們目前處於一個非常不同的世界，而且可能會持續一段時間。

And then I guess to follow up a bit on that question about Flex timing, given this disruption that we're in right now, any reason not to use this disruption to accelerate the timing on rolling out Flex? Is it -- is there an almost "what do you have to lose" kind of component to just going ahead? Since you know that, that seems to be where you want to go, that maybe now it might not be such a bad time to just go ahead and get there given everything else is already as disrupted as it is.

然後我想跟進一下有關 Flex 時間安排的問題，考慮到我們現在所處的這種混亂，有什麼理由不利用這種中斷來加快推出 Flex 的時間？是不是——是否有一種幾乎「你必須失去什麼」的成分來繼續前進？既然你知道，那似乎就是你想去的地方，也許現在可能不是一個糟糕的時機，繼續前進並到達那裡，因為其他一切都已經被打亂了。

We all -- it's the air cover, you got air cover.

我們所有人——這是空中掩護，你有空中掩護。

Right.

正確的。

Maybe Allen, do you want to take the first?

也許艾倫，你想拿第一名嗎？

Do you want me to start on that? And then you could...

你想讓我開始嗎？然後你可以...

Yes, sure. It's okay.

是的，當然。沒關係。

I was just going to try to give some color. We called out the impact on Q1. So I guess what I'd say is that right now, Flex is going about as expected. We had planned -- we called out a 400 basis point impact in Q1 on our call in February. That was actually about a 430 basis points, we round it. The actual number came in a little over 460. So Flex is going about as we expected. What I would say is that we are finding, as we work through this, that it's not just to flip a switch and let it go. It's a process. It's working with our best partners to put mechanisms and operational rigor in place to allow them to scale and grow. So it's not something you can just flip and expect to serve the customer better. And so that is why we're being a little more methodical as we test.

我只是想嘗試給一些顏色。我們指出了對第一季的影響。所以我想我想說的是，目前 Flex 正在按預期進行。我們已經計劃好了——我們在 2 月的電話會議上指出第一季會產生 400 個基點的影響。我們四捨五入後，實際上大約是 430 個基點。實際數字略高於 460。所以 Flex 的表現符合我們的預期。我想說的是，當我們解決這個問題時，我們發現這不僅僅是按下開關然後放手那麼簡單。這是一個過程。它正在與我們最好的合作夥伴合作，建立機制和嚴格的運營，使他們能夠擴展和發展。因此，這不是你可以隨意翻轉並期望更好地為客戶服務的東西。這就是為什麼我們在測試時更加有條理。

So we are looking at opportunities to work with our best partners. As Rich mentioned, we're continuing to expand the program and expect to continue still in the Q2. But it's just not something we can flip. So I don't know if you want to add any more color. So I think we're finding that it does work, but there are things we're learning that make it work better, and that's why we're continually refining it before just flipping the switch.

因此，我們正在尋找與最佳合作夥伴合作的機會。正如 Rich 所提到的，我們正在繼續擴大該計劃，並預計在第二季繼續擴大。但這不是我們可以翻轉的。所以我不知道你是否想添加更多的顏色。所以我認為我們發現它確實有效，但我們正在學習一些東西可以讓它工作得更好，這就是為什麼我們在打開開關之前不斷完善它。

Yes. And we -- and Heath, as you might imagine, it's a little harder to measure. We're doing all kinds of testing to figure out how and where it's working, how it's better for us from a revenue and profit per lead perspective and how it's better for our partners and customer satisfaction. And that equation is -- as transactions plummeted during kind of peak fear, it kind of throws a little bit of a monkey wrench in our measurement devices on that. And so what's great is that we are working to focus -- where we're moving more quickly and using this time to move more quickly is focusing our lead flow, our customer flow, those partners that are best able to give good service and convert. And we're taking this time to really build out those predominantly teams of people in various cities to make that happen. And we're really encouraged. I'm really encouraged by what I'm hearing coming out of the PA group. They're super energized right now.

是的。正如你可能想像的那樣，我們和希思的衡量有點困難。我們正在進行各種測試，以弄清楚它如何以及在哪裡發揮作用，從每個潛在客戶的收入和利潤角度來看它如何對我們更好，以及它如何對我們的合作夥伴和客戶滿意度更好。這個等式是——隨著交易量在恐懼高峰期間暴跌，這對我們的測量設備造成了一些影響。因此，最棒的是，我們正在努力集中精力——我們正在更快地行動，並利用這段時間更快地行動，重點是我們的潛在客戶流、我們的客戶流、那些最有能力提供良好服務和轉化的合作夥伴。我們正在利用這段時間在各個城市真正建立主要由人員組成的團隊來實現這一目標。我們真的很受鼓舞。我從 PA 小組聽到的消息讓我深受鼓舞。他們現在精力充沛。

Your next question comes from Naved Khan of SunTrust.

您的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Naved Khan。

I just wanted to understand the dynamics between MBP and the fact that you're now doing some discounting in Q2. Just wanted to understand, once you let the MBP decide what the advertising is going to be, where the rates are going to be, maybe in Q3, is it possible for you to have the recurring rates kind of come back to 1 and not dip below the 1 index that you show on the chart?

我只是想了解 MBP 與你們現在在第二季度進行一些折扣這一事實之間的動態。只是想了解，一旦你讓 MBP 決定廣告內容、費率將在哪裡，也許在第三季度，你是否有可能讓經常性費率回到 1 而不是下降低於圖表上顯示的 1 指數？

Yes. So I'll take this. Thanks for the question. So again, we're providing guidance just for the quarter. However, we put that chart in place to kind of show the relationship between the input metrics and this discount. So as we've moved, to be honest, from the first decision point at the end of March when we saw this dislocation to our input starting to come back, this targeted market approach is actually moving our [FBP] back more and more to MBP as we go. And so we expect, if these trends were to continue, that we would be closer and closer to where we started the quarter if our inputs reflect that. There is a lot of uncertainty. And again, we saw the -- we think we've hit the floor and we're seeing the positives. But our modeling would suggest that if we continue to see these input trends, our discounting would become less and less and eventually to a very minimal amount. Our outlook, as I mentioned, did provide for some additional discounting in the latter part of the quarter, but less so than even the second round that was more targeted, if that helps.

是的。所以我會接受這個。謝謝你的提問。再次強調，我們僅提供本季的指導。然而，我們放置該圖表是為了顯示輸入指標和折扣之間的關係。因此，說實話，從3 月底的第一個決策點開始，我們看到這種錯位到我們的投入開始回歸，這種有針對性的市場方法實際上正在使我們的[FBP] 越來越回到MBP 隨我們走。因此，我們預計，如果這些趨勢繼續下去，如果我們的投入反映了這一點，我們將越來越接近本季開始的水平。有很多不確定性。我們再次看到——我們認為我們已經落地，我們看到了積極的一面。但我們的模型表明，如果我們繼續看到這些投入趨勢，我們的折扣將變得越來越少，並最終達到非常低的水平。正如我所提到的，我們的前景確實在本季度後半段提供了一些額外的折扣，但如果有幫助的話，甚至比更有針對性的第二輪折扣還要少。

Got it. And maybe one follow-up question for Rich. It looks like you were able to use some machine learning techniques for selling the inventory you had on the iBuyer side. Can you just maybe give us some more color on what are these techniques and how much of help they are?

知道了。也許還有一個針對 Rich 的後續問題。看來您能夠使用一些機器學習技術來銷售您在 iBuyer 方面的庫存。您能給我們更多關於這些技術是什麼以及它們有多大幫助的資訊嗎？

Sorry, I was muted. I mean it's just the machines getting smarter. It -- these businesses feel big and old, but this business is actually small and young for us. And we have just gotten a whole lot better at how to figure out what to buy, where to buy it, how to rehab it, how to appraise it, how to price drop it, and all of this is informed by data. And as you -- as demonstrated by the outputs of our sales velocity on ZO, it's definitely working, working way better, honestly, than we anticipated. At the beginning of the crisis, we were quite worried we would not -- we were just worried. We're wondering whether or not we would be able to move a bunch of that inventory, and I've been really impressed. We were already on that trend. We were already speeding sales faster than we were acquiring inventory. And so that trend has continued. I've been really impressed with that. It's time for us to stop celebrating declining inventory numbers, however. It's time for us to get back to business on the Zillow Offers and get Han Solo out of that carbonite. So we're excited about turning on the acquisition side, too.

抱歉，我被靜音了。我的意思是，這只是機器變得越來越聰明。這些企業給人感覺又大又老，但對我們來說其實這個企業又小又年輕。我們在如何弄清楚買什麼、在哪裡買、如何修復、如何評估、如何降價方面有了很大的進步，所有這些都是由數據提供的。正如我們在 ZO 上的銷售速度的輸出所證明的那樣，它絕對有效，而且老實說，比我們預期的要好得多。在危機開始時，我們非常擔心我們不會——我們只是擔心。我們想知道是否能夠轉移大量庫存，這給我留下了深刻的印象。我們已經處於這種趨勢之中。我們加速銷售的速度已經超過了獲取庫存的速度。所以這種趨勢一直持續著。我對此印象深刻。然而，我們是時候停止慶祝庫存數量下降了。現在是時候讓我們回到 Zillow 優惠的正題上來，讓漢·索羅擺脫碳酸鹽了。因此，我們也對收購方面感到興奮。

Got it. Would it be fair to say then maybe there was some kind of a step change in this -- the improvements you derived maybe in Q1 that helped you speed up the velocity? Or would that be a stretch?

知道了。公平地說，也許這方面發生了某種階躍變化——您在第一季獲得的改進可能幫助您加快了速度？或者這會是延伸嗎？

I think that's a stretch. I mean the improvements of -- with machine learning, maybe in early days, come in big steps and then afterwards, come in, in lots of small increments. And that's what we are seeing right now. And even though the market is a little wonky, we will continue to -- we expect to continue to see that.

我認為這有點牽強。我的意思是，機器學習的改進，也許在早期，會大步推進，然後，會以許多小增量的方式出現。這就是我們現在所看到的。儘管市場有點不穩定，但我們將繼續看到——我們預計將繼續看到這種情況。

Your next question is from Edward Yruma of KeyBanc.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Edward Yruma。

The Homes business, I know there's a little bit of tentativeness, but I think you guys said about 3 weeks from now, you'll restart. What will the cash implications of that be as you re-ramp? And kind of give us an idea of what gates you're going to use to evaluate kind of the re-ramp? And then second, you indicated you're going to do some tactical discounts going forward in the PA business. I guess any kind of idea as to how much discounts will be and kind of what criteria you'll use per market to determine what the discount should be.

房屋業務，我知道有一點試探性，但我想你們說過大約三週後，你們將重新啟動。當你重新調整時，這會對現金產生什麼影響？讓我們了解您將使用哪些門來評估重新斜坡的類型？其次，您表示您將在 PA 業務中進行一些戰術性折扣。我想知道折扣有多少，以及您將根據每個市場使用什麼標準來確定折扣應該是多少。

Can you take that, Allen?

你能接受嗎，艾倫？

I'll take the first one, and then I want to make sure I understand the second one. But on -- the unpause of ZO, again, I do want to reiterate, we continue to believe in the thesis of Zillow Offers in that business model. And as Rich has discussed today, that thesis may be even stronger, and real estate 2.0 and our customer needs may be a better value proposition, which is obviously a positive. So our penetration may be better. With respect to the capital needs of that business, when we made the pause, we talked about the actions we took. We can start up again without a significant incremental cash or cost increase getting back to the volumes and run rates that we were at. And again, Rich mentioned we're going through the plan on how exactly we'll start that up, and we expect to do that soon.

我將採取第一個，然後我想確保我理解第二個。但關於 ZO 的暫停，我想再次重申，我們仍然相信 Zillow Offers 在這個商業模式中的論點。正如 Rich 今天所討論的，這個論點可能會更加有力，房地產 2.0 和我們的客戶需求可能是一個更好的價值主張，這顯然是積極的。所以我們的滲透力可能會更好。關於該業務的資本需求，當我們暫停時，我們討論了我們採取的行動。我們可以重新啟動，無需大量增加現金或增加成本，即可恢復原來的產量和運作率。里奇再次提到，我們正在製定具體如何啟動的計劃，我們預計很快就會這樣做。

We'll continue, as we always have, to just assess our ability to fund either with equity for our portion of the houses. We'll continue to leverage the asset-backed warehouse deals that we have for the homes. We're excited about the resell velocity that we have, which allows us to move homes through quicker if those trends continue. So we'll just continue to monitor it on a cost of capital and an ROI basis, looking at a long-term investment in that business. But I don't expect it to significantly change. In fact, it'll likely be less than the capital we had talked about coming into the year just given that we had to pause and we have to ramp up again, if that helps.

我們將一如既往地繼續評估我們用股本為我們部分房屋提供資金的能力。我們將繼續利用我們為房屋提供的資產支援倉庫交易。我們對我們擁有的轉售速度感到興奮，如果這些趨勢持續下去，這使我們能夠更快地搬家。因此，我們將繼續根據資本成本和投資回報率進行監控，並著眼於對該業務的長期投資。但我不認為它會發生重大變化。事實上，它可能會少於我們剛剛談到的進入今年的資本，因為我們必須暫停，並且必須再次增加（如果這有幫助的話）。

And then you had a question. I believe you said how are we thinking about MBP discounts?

然後你有一個問題。我相信你說過我們如何看待MBP折扣？

Yes. And just trying to really understand again the dynamics you're considering. Some of your competitors are kind of continuing to step on the gas from a promotional perspective. So kind of what gives you confidence that a more tactical approach is what's warranted in this environment?

是的。只是試著再次真正理解你正在考慮的動態。您的一些競爭對手正在從促銷角度繼續加強。那麼，是什麼讓您相信在這種環境下需要採取更具戰術性的方法呢？

Yes. So I guess what I'd say is I'll just grow the data point up that when -- after our first adjustment or discount, which was -- I call it a sledgehammer, but it was 50% across the board. And again, inputs were dislocating. As trends started to come back up and as we made a more targeted adjustment to our discount process in late April, we are continuing to see very good retention of all of our partners and the partners that we want. So that's a data point that says that we believe this tool is working, that is showing we are in this with our partners for the long term as well as it's working to retain our best partners to ensure our customers are served. So right now, we believe it's a tool that will continue to work. We're well positioned. If you look at our traffic, our brand, our balance sheet, I think we're in a great position to continue to win. We will continue to serve customers with technology, which will drive traffic.

是的。所以我想我想說的是，我會增加數據點，當我們第一次調整或折扣之後，我稱之為大錘，但總體來說是 50%。再次，投入錯位。隨著趨勢開始回升，並且我們在 4 月下旬對折扣流程進行了更有針對性的調整，我們繼續看到所有合作夥伴和我們想要的合作夥伴都得到了很好的保留。因此，這個數據點表明我們相信這個工具正在發揮作用，這表明我們與合作夥伴長期合作，並且正在努力留住我們最好的合作夥伴，以確保為我們的客戶提供服務。所以現在，我們相信這是一個將繼續發揮作用的工具。我們處於有利位置。如果你看看我們的流量、我們的品牌、我們的資產負債表，我認為我們處於繼續獲勝的有利位置。我們將繼續以科技服務客戶，從而帶動流量。

And so I believe that the metrics that we showed and our ability to go back to more of an MBP pricing when we're providing value to our customers is real. And again, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, but we're happy with where we are. We feel like we're in a really good position.

因此，我相信，當我們為客戶提供價值時，我們展示的指標以及我們回歸更多 MBP 定價的能力是真實的。再說一遍，存在著許多不確定性，但我們對目前的情況感到滿意。我們覺得我們處於一個非常好的位置。

This completes the allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Rich Barton for any closing remarks.

這樣就完成了分配的提問時間。現在，我將把電話轉回給里奇·巴頓，讓其發表結束語。

Okay. So this period has clarified just how essential it is for people to be able to shop for a home and move. Now we more clearly see that people have an innate desire to move and that this period may even be a catalyst for many to change their address for a variety of reasons that we've talked about. Watching this unfold has given new meaning to our mission and the important role that Zillow is privileged to play in the lives of so many.

好的。因此，這段時期已經闡明了人們能夠買房和搬家是多麼重要。現在我們更清楚地看到，人們有一種與生俱來的搬家願望，這段時期甚至可能成為許多人出於我們所討論的各種原因改變地址的催化劑。目睹這一切的展開，給我們的使命以及 Zillow 有幸在許多人的生活中發揮的重要作用賦予了新的意義。

So as my e-mail auto signature says, keep calm, be safe and carry on. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you.

因此，正如我的電子郵件自動簽名所說，保持冷靜、確保安全並繼續前進。我們很快就會和你談談。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。