Zillow Group Inc (Z) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Chuck, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Zillow Group Fourth Quarter 2020 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

午安.我叫查克，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。在此，我歡迎大家參加 Zillow 集團 2020 年第四季電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Brad Berning, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Brad Berning。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Chuck. Good afternoon, and welcome to Zillow Group's fourth quarter 2020 conference call. Joining me today to discuss our Q4 results are Zillow Group's Co-Founder and CEO, Rich Barton; and CFO, Allen Parker.

謝謝你，查克。下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2020 年第四季電話會議。今天與我一起討論我們第四季業績的是 Zillow Group 聯合創辦人兼執行長 Rich Barton；和財務長艾倫·帕克。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements about our future performance and our operating plans based on current expectations and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and we encourage you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings for additional information. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

在電話會議期間，我們將根據當前的預期和假設對我們的未來業績和營運計劃做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，我們鼓勵您考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的風險因素以獲取更多資訊。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務，除非法律要求。

This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible to -- on our Investor Relations website. A recording of the call will be available later today.

這次電話會議正在網路上播出，並且可以在我們的投資者關係網站上存取。今天稍後將提供通話錄音。

During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, which we refer to as EBITDA. We encourage you to read our shareholder letter and our earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website as they contain important information about our GAAP and non-GAAP results, including reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA，我們稱之為 EBITDA。我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的股東信和收益報告，這些內容可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到，因為它們包含有關我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的重要信息，包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。

In addition, please note, we will refer to our Internet, Media and Technology segment as our IMT segment. We will now open the call with brief remarks, followed by live Q&A.

此外，請注意，我們將互聯網、媒體和技術部門稱為 IMT 部門。我們現在將透過簡短的演講開始電話會議，然後進行現場問答。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

然後，我會將電話轉給 Rich。

"You're on mute, Rich." That's now in the dictionary. Sorry about that. Thanks, Brad. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining our first call of the new year. February marks a big milestone for Zillow, our 15-year anniversary.

“你處於靜音狀態，里奇。”現在字典裡有這個字。對於那個很抱歉。謝謝，布拉德。下午好，感謝大家參加我們新年的第一次電話會議。二月是 Zillow 的一個重要里程碑，即我們成立 15 週年。

We were motivated at the beginning by the same dream that motivates us now, reinventing a disjointed and friction-filled process to make it easier for people to move. While we have made tremendous progress and our position is strong, we are, in many ways, just getting started.

我們一開始的夢想與現在一樣，重塑了一個脫節且充滿摩擦的流程，讓人們更容易行動。儘管我們已經取得了巨大進步並且地位穩固，但在許多方面我們才剛剛開始。

A year ago on this same call, I deemed 2019 a tumultuously remarkable year. In hindsight, I clearly had no idea what tumultuous meant. There will be plenty of studies on COVID's impact on society, business, politics and real estate in the years ahead. But today, I'll focus on Zillow's impressive results in 2020 and some of our key accomplishments.

一年前，在同一個電話會議上，我認為 2019 年是非凡的一年。事後看來，我顯然不知道混亂意味著什麼。未來幾年將會有大量關於新冠疫​​情對社會、商業、政治和房地產影響的研究。但今天，我將重點介紹 Zillow 在 2020 年取得的令人印象深刻的業績以及我們的一些關鍵成就。

First and foremost, we saw engagement across our mobile apps and websites in 2020 at levels we would not previously have thought possible. Zillow surfing has broken through to a whole new level of pop culture given that Saturday Night Live did a funny and racy sketch about it this past weekend with guest host Dan Levy in the lead.

首先也是最重要的是，2020 年我們的行動應用程式和網站的參與度達到了我們以前認為不可能的水平。 Zillow 衝浪已經突破了流行文化的一個全新高度，上週末《週六夜現場》在客座主持人 Dan Levy 的帶領下做了一個有趣而生動的小品。

Fantasizing about real estate is not new. Our survey results and traffic have always indicated that people love looking at real estate and want to move. What has changed is that more of those people now have the freedom to move. Many Americans, untethered from their commutes and offices, have begun to reevaluate how and where they want to live. This cultural trend, which we have been calling the great reshuffling, along with our continued technology improvements, resulted in 9.6 billion visits to our mobile apps and websites over the course of 2020. That is 1.5 billion more visits than in 2019.

對房地產的幻想並不新鮮。我們的調查結果和流量一直表明人們喜歡看房地產並且想要搬家。發生的變化是，更多的人現在擁有了遷徙的自由。許多不受通勤和辦公室束縛的美國人已經開始重新評估他們想要的生活方式和地點。這種被我們稱為「大洗牌」的文化趨勢，加上我們不斷的技術改進，導致 2020 年我們的行動應用程式和網站的訪問量達到 96 億次。這比 2019 年增加了 15 億次。

We took advantage of this rush of top of funnel engagement and executed well across Zillow's suite of products and services. We accelerated the growth of our flagship buy side business, Zillow Premier Agent, partnering with real estate agents across the country to produce the strongest results we've ever seen, reporting a 35% revenue growth year-over-year in Q4.

我們利用了這種漏斗頂部參與的熱潮，並在 Zillow 的產品和服務套件中表現出色。我們加快了旗艦買方業務 Zillow Premier Agent 的成長，與全國各地的房地產經紀人合作，取得了我們所見過的最強勁的業績，第四季度收入同比增長 35%。

Our burgeoning sell side business, Zillow Offers, proved durable through some bad weather. We paused home buying to manage risk during the early days of the pandemic, but exited 2020 with our quarterly acquisitions pace returning to Q4 2019 levels. We augmented these buy- and sell-side businesses with excellent execution in our adjacent services.

事實證明，我們蓬勃發展的賣方業務 Zillow Offers 經受住了一些惡劣天氣的考驗。在疫情初期，我們暫停了購屋以管理風險，但在 2020 年結束時，我們的季度收購速度恢復到了 2019 年第四季的水平。我們透過相鄰服務中的出色執行來增強這些買方和賣方業務。

Our financing arm, Zillow Home Loans, nearly tripled its originations revenue in 2020 compared to 2019. We expanded Zillow Closing Services to 25 markets in less than 12 months, and a vast majority of our customers are now choosing to close with us when purchasing a home from Zillow Offers. This execution resulted in total revenue growth of 22%, which when combined with a disciplined approach to managing costs, resulted in more than $300 million in incremental EBITDA profit generation across the company as compared to 2019.

與2019 年相比，我們的融資部門Zillow Home Loans 在2020 年的發放收入幾乎增加了兩倍。我們在不到12 個月的時間裡將Zillow Closing Services 擴展到25 個市場，我們的絕大多數客戶在購買房屋時現在選擇與我們結帳Zillow 優惠之家。這項執行導致總收入成長了 22%，再加上嚴格的成本管理方法，與 2019 年相比，整個公司的 EBITDA 利潤增加超過 3 億美元。

Our team drove these business results in 2020 while quickly adjusting to a new way of working with 90% of our workforce doing their jobs remotely. While many companies across the country are evaluating their go forward policies about remote work, Zillow is onto the next play as legendary Duke basketball coach Mike Zachevsky likes to say.

我們的團隊在 2020 年取得了這些業務成果，同時迅速適應了新的工作方式，90% 的員工遠距工作。雖然全國各地的許多公司都在評估他們有關遠距工作的前進政策，但正如杜克大學傳奇籃球教練 Mike Zachevsky 所說，Zillow 正在採取下一個策略。

Having internalized it, we are already successfully operating as a cloud-headquartered company. This location flexible work model has a myriad of benefits. Our employees, like so many others across the country who are participating in the great reshuffling, now have the flexibility to wrap their work around their lives rather than vice versa. And it allows us to recruit from almost anywhere and increase diversity in our workforce. We believe this will be a significant competitive advantage as we grow, and it is already yielding exciting results.

將其內部化後，我們已經作為一家以雲端為基礎的公司成功運作。這種地點彈性的工作模式有許多好處。與全國各地參與這場大洗牌的許多其他員工一樣，我們的員工現在可以靈活地將工作與生活結合起來，而不是相反。它使我們能夠從幾乎任何地方進行招聘，並增加員工隊伍的多樣性。我們相信，隨著我們的成長，這將成為一個顯著的競爭優勢，並且它已經產生了令人興奮的成果。

Of course, there are challenges to not being in the office together, but that is temporal. In a post-COVID world, our workplace design goal is to maximize flexibility for our high demand talent. We will have awesome offices for those who want or need to come in. At the same time, we must ensure a level playing field for all team members regardless of their physical location. There cannot be a 2-class system. Those in the room being first class and those on the phone being second class. We are entering the most interesting and innovative period for workplace design in our lifetimes, and our people and facilities teams at Zillow are out in front.

當然，不一起辦公室也會帶來挑戰，但那是暫時的。在後新冠疫情時代，我們的工作場所設計目標是最大限度地提高高需求人才的靈活性。我們將為那些想要或需要進來的人提供很棒的辦公室。同時，我們必須確保為所有團隊成員提供公平的競爭環境，無論他們身在何處。不可能存在 2 級系統。房間裡的人是頭等艙，打電話的人是二等艙。我們正在進入一生中工作場所設計最有趣和最具創新性的時期，Zillow 的人員和設施團隊處於領先地位。

To wrap this year in review, I must say how proud I am of what our whole team has accomplished on the scariest of roller coaster rides that was 2020. And I would like to thank them here for their commitment and resilience.

為了結束今年的回顧，我必須說，我對我們整個團隊在 2020 年最可怕的過山車之旅中所取得的成就感到非常自豪。我要在這裡感謝他們的承諾和堅韌。

As we look ahead, I'll start with the housing market. Our Zillow economists have made bold predictions for an even stronger housing market this year. They are projecting a near record of 6.8 million home sales for 21% growth plus double-digit home price appreciation. We, of course, do not have a crystal ball, and our mission does not depend on the cyclical vagaries of the housing market due to the mega shift from off-line to online, but we believe that residential real estate will continue its risk trajectory.

展望未來，我將從房地產市場開始。我們的 Zillow 經濟學家對今年的房地產市場更加強勁做出了大膽預測。他們預計房屋銷售量將達到 680 萬套，成長 21%，房價將實現兩位數的升值，接近創紀錄水準。當然，我們沒有水晶球，我們的使命並不取決於房地產市場由於從線下到線上的巨大轉變而出現的周期性變化，但我們相信住宅房地產將繼續其風險軌跡。

The millennial generation is entering prime home buying years, and mortgage rates are historically low. On top of those macro factors, the past year has members of all generations rethinking where they live with a new lens of flexibility and possibility as the great reshuffling continues to take hold.

千禧世代正進入購屋黃金期，抵押貸款利率處於歷史低點。除了這些宏觀因素之外，在過去的一年裡，隨著大洗牌的繼續進行，各代人都以靈活性和可能性的新視角重新思考他們的生活。

Some of you are concerned about low inventory persisting. Despite historically low inventory, 2020 closed with 5.6 million existing home sales, the highest level since 2006. Low inventory and high volume of sales seem at odds until you consider how quickly homes are selling. Average time on market was 17 days in December, a full 25 fewer days than in December of 2019.

你們中的一些人擔心庫存持續低迷。儘管庫存處於歷史低位，2020 年仍以 560 萬套現房銷售結束，這是自 2006 年以來的最高水平。低庫存和高銷量似乎是矛盾的，除非你考慮房屋的銷售速度。 12月平均上市時間為17天，比2019年12月足足減少了25天。

In addition to being a hot market, agents and customers adopted technology and tools for safety, convenience and simply to compete. And higher prices pull more inventory onto the market, of course. So like a warehouse using lean operations to transition to just-in-time inventory management, the housing market became more streamlined. Current home inventory levels, therefore, can be addressed with something like the safety refrain from a flight attendant. The oxygen will flow even if the bag does not appear to be -- to fully inflate.

除了成為熱門市場之外，代理商和客戶還採用技術和工具來實現安全、便利和簡單的競爭。當然，更高的價格會吸引更多的庫存進入市場。因此，就像倉庫使用精益營運過渡到及時庫存管理一樣，房地產市場變得更加精簡。因此，目前的房屋庫存水準可以透過空服人員的安全禁令等措施來解決。即使袋子看起來沒有完全充氣，氧氣也會流動。

Amid what we believe will be a very healthy housing market backdrop, we expect 2021 will be a pivotal year for Zillow. I've spent some breath here in the past 2 years talking about our transition from Zillow 1.0, a media-focused business, into Zillow 2.0, a transaction-focused business. Today, I believe that we have the pieces in place, the vision, the team, the technology solutions and customer products and services to execute on Zillow 2.0 now. We will undoubtedly keep innovating and adding products and services on the long road to customer one-click trade-in nirvana, but our entire company is now relentlessly focused on transactions and ready to scale from here.

在我們相信房地產市場非常健康的背景下，我們預計 2021 年將是 Zillow 的關鍵一年。在過去的兩年裡，我在這裡花了一些時間談論我們從 Zillow 1.0（以媒體為中心的業務）到 Zillow 2.0（以交易為中心的業務）的轉變。今天，我相信我們已經具備了在 Zillow 2.0 上執行的要素、願景、團隊、技術解決方案以及客戶產品和服務。毫無疑問，在通往客戶一鍵以舊換新涅槃的漫長道路上，我們將不斷創新並增加產品和服務，但我們整個公司現在堅持不懈地專注於交易，並準備從這裡開始擴展。

To do that, we are investing aggressively in technologies and services that make it easier for our customers to make that transition. As part of our quest to make our customers' experiences better, today, we announced our intent to acquire ShowingTime, an industry-leading real estate showing software provider that facilitated over 50 million in-person home tours in 2020, for $500 million.

為此，我們正在大力投資技術和服務，使我們的客戶更容易實現這一轉變。作為我們追求更好客戶體驗的一部分，今天，我們宣布打算以 5 億美元收購 ShowingTime，這是一家行業領先的房地產展示軟體提供商，在 2020 年為超過 5000 萬次現場家庭參觀提供了便利。

ShowingTime's technology already extends into the broader real estate industry, and we intend to grow its adoption across the industry moving forward to the benefit of all industry participants and customers. The addition of ShowingTime to our suite of real estate technology solutions allows us to accelerate a widely adopted solution for scheduling home tours. We see this as similar to the work we did to build our connections platform a few years ago. And wider acceptance of this technology has the added benefit of improving the experience for the broader industry as well as for our premier agent partners as our platform grows.

ShowingTime 的技術已擴展到更廣泛的房地產行業，我們打算在整個行業中擴大其採用率，從而造福所有行業參與者和客戶。將 ShowingTime 添加到我們的房地產技術解決方案套件中，使我們能夠加速廣泛採用的家庭旅遊安排解決方案。我們認為這與我們幾年前建立聯繫平台所做的工作類似。隨著我們平台的發展，這項技術的廣泛接受度也帶來了額外的好處，即改善更廣泛的行業以及我們的主要代理商合作夥伴的體驗。

We envision a future experience that begins on our mobile app, where a customer can immerse herself in a home via our 3D home technology, book an in-person tour through ShowingTime with an agent, get prequalified through Zillow Home Loans, work with a premier agent to buy the home and close the transaction with Zillow Closing Services.

我們設想一種從我們的行動應用程式開始的未來體驗，客戶可以透過我們的3D 家居技術沉浸在房屋中，透過ShowingTime 與代理商一起預訂現場參觀，透過Zillow Home Loans 獲得資格預審，與頂級合作夥伴合作代理商購買房屋並透過 Zillow Closing Services 完成交易。

We have spent the last year bringing out Zillow Offers -- bringing our Zillow Offers and Premier Agent businesses closer together to orient around customer success and customer choice. While I know you all think of these businesses as distinct, our customers arrive at Zillow simply trying to move. It is our job to deliver for them in any way that we can, be it through our own services or with our best-in-class partners.

去年，我們推出了 Zillow Offers，將我們的 Zillow Offers 和 Premier Agent 業務更加緊密地結合在一起，以客戶成功和客戶選擇為導向。雖然我知道你們都認為這些業務各不相同，但我們的客戶來到 Zillow 只是為了搬家。我們的工作是盡我們所能為他們提供服務，無論是透過我們自己的服務還是與我們一流的合作夥伴一起。

Our customers are hungry for the seamless experience that we can now provide. In programs we've begun to run across the country, we see evidence that a suite of Zillow services appeals to people.

我們的客戶渴望我們現在可以提供的無縫體驗。在我們開始在全國範圍內開展的計畫中，我們看到了一系列 Zillow 服務對人們有吸引力的證據。

Take retired elementary school teacher, Terry Lee. After 44 years in her Atlanta home, she felt intimidated by the prospect of making repairs and selling, especially with the health risks posed by COVID-19. Her son, an avid user of Zillow, suggested she call us. She accepted a Zillow offer, used a premier agent to help her shop then financed and closed using Zillow services. Now she has a townhouse in a convenient walkable neighborhood having integrated Zillow experience made the move convenient. "They were all part of the same team," she said. "I didn't have to remember to remind someone, did you let someone so and so know. Everybody knew."

以退休小學教師特里·李為例。在亞特蘭大的家中生活了 44 年後，她對維修和出售的前景感到害怕，尤其是考慮到 COVID-19 帶來的健康風險。她的兒子是 Zillow 的狂熱用戶，並建議她打電話給我們。她接受了 Zillow 的報價，聘請了一位高級代理商來幫助她的商店，然後使用 Zillow 服務進行融資並關閉。現在，她在一個方便步行的社區擁有一套聯排別墅，擁有全面的 Zillow 體驗，讓搬家變得很方便。 “他們都是同一個團隊的成員，”她說。 “我不必記得提醒別人，你是否讓某人知道了。每個人都知道。”

We dropped a link to a short video of Terry's first-hand story in the shareholder letter. It's not nearly as alluring as the SNL bit, but it's really a fantastic encapsulation of where we are headed.

我們在股東信中刪除了特里第一手故事的短片連結。它不像《週六夜現場》那麼吸引人，但它確實是我們前進方向的精彩概括。

Testimonials like Terry's are what get us so excited about the opportunity in front of us. So long as we are able to deliver delightful customer experiences, it's a win for everyone involved. Terry sold her previous home, is living in her new home, our Premier Agent partner completed a successful transaction, and we participated in economics across our multiple services without spending incrementally to find Terry as a customer for the additional services.

像特里這樣的感言讓我們對眼前的機會感到如此興奮。只要我們能夠提供令人愉快的客戶體驗，對每位參與者來說都是雙贏。特里賣掉了她以前的房子，住在她的新家裡，我們的高級代理合作夥伴完成了一筆成功的交易，我們參與了多項服務的經濟活動，而無需增加支出來尋找特里作為附加服務的客戶。

Our low customer acquisition cost advantage is integral to our Zillow 2.0 strategy. For example, this year, many customers in Zillow Offers markets will see that Terry's estimate is a live initial offer from Zillow Offers. This will begin to realize the big hairy audacious goal we set 15 years ago when we launched Zillow of putting an actual price on every rooftop.

我們的低客戶獲取成本優勢是我們的 Zillow 2.0 策略不可或缺的一部分。例如，今年，Zillow Offers 市場的許多客戶將看到 Terry 的估算是 Zillow Offers 的即時初始報價。這將開始實現我們 15 年前推出 Zillow 時設定的大膽目標，為每個屋頂設定實際價格。

As this estimate begins to move from fantasy to reality, we are one small but important step closer to delivering on that BHAG. Marketplaces are healthier and more liquid with transparency.

隨著這個估計開始從幻想變為現實，我們距離實現這一宏偉目標又邁出了一小步，但卻是重要的一步。市場更健康、流動性更強、透明度更高。

Lastly, as I zoom out and think about opportunity, we are in a unique position to build an iconic company and brand that transforms one of the country's largest, most complex and most important industries. Our large audience, the breadth of our services across real estate transactions, our profit streams and profit potential, our strong balance sheet, our experienced leadership team and our long term orientation, all combined put us in pole position.

最後，當我放眼思考機會時，我們處於獨特的地位，可以建立一個標誌性的公司和品牌，改變這個國家最大、最複雜和最重要的產業之一。我們龐大的受眾、我們在房地產交易領域的服務廣度、我們的利潤流和利潤潛力、我們強大的資產負債表、我們經驗豐富的領導團隊以及我們的長期定位，所有這些綜合起來使我們處於領先地位。

The advantages we've worked hard to build over the last 15 years will help drive us forward for the next 15. Our talented team here is making it happen, but I also want to thank you, our investors, who have given us the space and support to move to the next exciting chapter in the story of Zillow.

我們在過去 15 年中努力建立的優勢將有助於推動我們在未來 15 年繼續前進。我們才華橫溢的團隊正在實現這一目標，但我還要感謝我們的投資者，他們為我們提供了空間並支持進入Zillow 故事的下一個激動人心的篇章。

I'll now turn it over to Allen. You're on mute Allen.

我現在把它交給艾倫。你把艾倫靜音了。

All right. Thank you, Rich. As Rich discussed, Zillow Group delivered another strong quarter, which drove record full year 2020 revenue and EBITDA on a consolidated basis. We reported Q4 consolidated revenue of $789 million and EBITDA of $170 million, both exceeding the high end of our outlook range.

好的。謝謝你，里奇。正如 Rich 所討論的那樣，Zillow Group 再次實現了強勁的季度業績，推動 2020 年全年營收和 EBITDA 創歷史新高。我們報告第四季度合併收入為 7.89 億美元，EBITDA 為 1.70 億美元，均超出了我們預期範圍的上限。

Our Q4 results contributed to the strong 2020 annual results with consolidated revenue growing 22% and EBITDA of $343 million, expanding from $39 million in 2019.

我們第四季度的業績為 2020 年年度業績的強勁做出了貢獻，合併收入增長了 22%，EBITDA 達到 3.43 億美元，較 2019 年的 3900 萬美元有所增長。

Q4 IMT segment revenue of $424 million grew 33% year-over-year as we continue to see accelerated growth across most of our IMT marketplaces. IMT segment EBITDA was $203 million in Q4 or 48% of IMT segment revenue. Strong revenue growth, combined with year-over-year declines in operating costs, translated into 132% year-over-year EBITDA growth in Q4.

第四季 IMT 部門營收為 4.24 億美元，年成長 33%，我們持續看到大多數 IMT 市場的加速成長。第四季 IMT 部門 EBITDA 為 2.03 億美元，佔 IMT 部門營收的 48%。強勁的營收成長，加上營運成本年減，第四季 EBITDA 年成長 132%。

Premier Agent revenue grew 35% year-over-year in Q4, driven by record Q4 customer satisfaction rates and record Q4 connections of higher-intent customers to a growing number of high-performing partners with continued strong agent retention rates. Excluding the impact of revenue timing changes we discussed in prior earnings calls, the Premier Agent revenue growth rate would have been 27% year-over-year in Q4, accelerating from 20% in Q3.

第四季度，高級代理收入年增35%，這得益於第四季度創紀錄的客戶滿意度，以及第四季度意向較高的客戶與越來越多的高績效合作夥伴之間的創紀錄聯繫，以及持續強勁的代理保留率。排除我們在先前的財報電話會議中討論的收入時間變化的影響，Premier Agent 的收入增長率在第四季度將達到 27%，較第三季度的 20% 有所加快。

During Q4, Zillow Offers benefited from operational improvements, stronger-than-expected home price appreciation across the country, a strong customer value proposition and faster sales velocity.

第四季度，Zillow Offers 受益於營運改善、全國房價升值強於預期、強大的客戶價值主張和更快的銷售速度。

Home segment revenue of $304 million exceeded the high end of our outlook with home purchases returning to Q4 2019 levels. Our Q4 Zillow Offers unit economics of 668 basis points before interest was above the plus or minus 200 basis point guardrail we set for ourselves while working to scale the business. The outsized unit economic results were impacted by the stronger and faster housing market recovery than we initially assumed in addition to the expected benefit of a predominantly high mix of recently acquired homes following the first half air gap.

住宅細分市場收入達到 3.04 億美元，超出了我們預期的上限，房屋購買量恢復到 2019 年第四季的水平。在利息高於我們在努力擴展業務時為自己設定的正負 200 個基點護欄之前，我們的第四季度 Zillow 提供了 668 個基點的單位經濟效益。除了上半年空缺之後近期購買的房屋數量占主導地位的預期收益之外，超大型單位經濟業績還受到房地產市場復甦比我們最初假設的更強勁和更快的影響。

Q4 unit economics also showed meaningful operational progress in improving our cost per home sold. Combined, we saw all 3 operational cost line items improved nearly 250 basis points compared to Q3. We are continuing to target our underwriting goal of plus or minus 200 basis points going forward.

第四季的單位經濟效益也顯示出在改善每套房屋銷售成本方面取得了有意義的營運進展。與第三季相比，我們發現所有 3 個營運成本項目合計提高了近 250 個基點。未來我們將繼續以正負 200 個基點為承保目標。

Our Mortgages segment revenue increased 190% year-over-year in Q4 to $61 million. And Mortgages segment EBITDA was $14 million compared to the midpoint of our prior outlook of $2 million. Fee revenue and EBITDA outperformance was primarily volume driven, with mortgage origination revenue growing nearly 7x year-over-year and gain on sale margins staying stronger for longer than we assumed.

第四季我們的抵押貸款部門營收年增 190% 至 6,100 萬美元。抵押貸款部門 EBITDA 為 1,400 萬美元，而我們先前預期的中位數為 200 萬美元。費用收入和 EBITDA 的優異表現主要是由數量驅動的，抵押貸款發放收入同比增長近 7 倍，銷售利潤率的增長保持強勁的時間比我們想像的要長。

Turning to our outlook. For the first quarter, at a consolidated level, we expect revenue to be $1.1 billion at the midpoint of our outlook and EBITDA to be between $114 million and $138 million.

轉向我們的展望。對於第一季度，在綜合水平上，我們預計收入將達到我們預期的 11 億美元，EBITDA 將在 1.14 億美元至 1.38 億美元之間。

In our IMT segment, we are forecasting 27% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 at the midpoint of our outlook range. Within the IMT segment, we expect Premier Agent revenue to be between $314 million to $322 million, up 31% year-over-year at the midpoint of our outlook, driven by strong top-of-funnel traffic and connections as we enter Q1.

在我們的 IMT 領域，我們預計第一季營收將年增 27%，處於我們展望範圍的中點。在IMT 細分市場中，我們預計Premier Agent 營收將在3.14 億美元至3.22 億美元之間，在我們的展望中點，同比增長31%，這是由於進入第一季時強勁的漏斗頂部流量和連結所推動的。

We expect Q1 IMT EBITDA margin to be 42% at the midpoint of our outlook. Q1 is also expected to benefit from the timing of certain seasonal advertising and marketing programs that are targeted to launch later this year. While we believe it remains prudent to continue to provide quarterly guidance, I would like to repeat what I said last quarter. We are focused on growing EBITDA dollars compared to the full year 2020 levels. We do not expect to expand EBITDA margins from the high levels in the second half of 2020, which benefited from cost controls put in place during the uncertainty of the pandemic. However, we will continue to drive operational rigor across the business to deliver operating leverage over time while focusing -- while also focusing on investing to drive sustainable growth.

我們預計第一季 IMT EBITDA 利潤率為我們預期中位數的 42%。預計第一季也將受益於今年稍後推出的某些季節性廣告和行銷計劃的時機。雖然我們認為繼續提供季度指導仍然是謹慎的做法，但我想重複我上個季度所說的話。與 2020 年全年水準相比，我們專注於提高 EBITDA 美元。我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率不會從 2020 年下半年的高水準擴大，這得益於在疫情的不確定性期間實施的成本控制。然而，我們將繼續推動整個業務的嚴格運營，以隨著時間的推移提供營運槓桿，同時專注於投資以推動永續成長。

In Q1, we expect our Homes segment revenue to increase sequentially to $608 million at the midpoint of our outlook as we ramp up purchase and resell activity levels that are being driven by strong demand and our customer value proposition. We remain focused on applying learnings and operational rigor to drive growth.

在第一季度，隨著我們在強勁需求和客戶價值主張的推動下提高購買和轉售活動水平，我們預計我們的住宅部門收入將連續增長至 6.08 億美元（在我們的展望中值）。我們仍然專注於運用經驗教訓和嚴格的營運來推動成長。

We expect our Mortgages segment revenue to be between $59 million to $64 million in Q1. We plan to continue to capture the strong refinance demand to invest in building the factory to scale our operations as the purchase business is built out over time. As a result, we expect Mortgages segment EBITDA to be between a loss of $3 million and a profit of $1 million.

我們預計第一季抵押貸款部門的收入將在 5,900 萬美元至 6,400 萬美元之間。隨著採購業務的逐步建立，我們計劃繼續抓住強勁的再融資需求，投資建造工廠，以擴大我們的業務規模。因此，我們預計抵押貸款部門 EBITDA 將在虧損 300 萬美元至利潤 100 萬美元之間。

We are also excited about the future addition of ShowingTime's industry-leading technology to our suite of solutions to help innovate and simplify online tour scheduling for agents, buyers and sellers. The outlook we provided today does not include any potential benefit from ShowingTime. We believe ShowingTime will deliver significant benefits to the industry, our customers, our partners and Zillow over time. We expect the impact on financial results to be relatively small in the near term.

我們也很高興未來將 ShowingTime 業界領先的技術添加到我們的解決方案套件中，以幫助創新和簡化代理商、買家和賣家的線上旅遊安排。我們今天提供的展望不包括 ShowingTime 的任何潛在好處。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，ShowingTime 將為行業、我們的客戶、我們的合作夥伴和 Zillow 帶來巨大的利益。我們預期短期內對財務績效的影響相對較小。

We ended the quarter with $3.9 billion in cash and investments, which puts us in a strong position to fund our vision for Zillow and make strategic long-term investments, both organically and inorganically. As we look forward in the new year, our priorities are focused on execution of our vision to help our customers unlock life's next chapter now that we have the core pieces in place.

截至本季末，我們擁有 39 億美元的現金和投資，這使我們處於有利地位，可以為 Zillow 的願景提供資金，並進行有機和無機的戰略性長期投資。展望新的一年，我們的首要任務是執行我們的願景，以幫助我們的客戶開啟人生的新篇章，因為我們已經掌握了核心部分。

Moving past the necessities of 2020, the following 2021 priorities are focused on innovating and executing on behalf of our customers and partners. We will grow our customer base and engagement through a compelling dream and shop experience. We will invest in sustainable top line growth opportunities across the company. We will reduce cost structure and improve productivity in transaction services. And we will drive profit growth through operational discipline.

除了 2020 年的必要事項之外，2021 年的以下優先事項重點是代表我們的客戶和合作夥伴進行創新和執行。我們將透過令人信服的夢想和商店體驗來擴大我們的客戶群和參與度。我們將投資於整個公司可持續的營收成長機會。降低交易服務成本結構，提高交易服務效率。我們將透過營運紀律推動利潤成長。

And with that, operator, we'll open the lines for questions.

接線員，接下來我們將開放提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自高盛的 Heath Terry。

Rich, obviously, just really kind of curious in terms of how you think about sustainability in terms of the growth and margin expansion that you're seeing here. I mean, 600 basis points obviously puts you in areas that you haven't really seen in a while. Just really, really kind of interested, now you and Allen and the team are thinking about the macro environment's contribution to this and how important that's going to be going forward as well as the traction that you're getting with Premier Agent. And just how much you can continue that from here?

顯然，里奇真的很好奇你如何看待這裡看到的成長和利潤擴張的可持續性。我的意思是，600 個基點顯然會讓你處於一段時間以來從未真正見過的領域。真的非常非常感興趣，現在您和艾倫以及團隊正在考慮宏觀環境對此的貢獻，以及未來的重要性以及您從 Premier Agent 獲得的吸引力。從這裡你可以繼續做多少？

Hey, I look forward to being on your Goldman Zoom Stage tomorrow.

嘿，我期待明天登上你們的高盛 Zoom 舞台。

We look forward to having you.

我們期待您的光臨。

It's no travel required. Zoom, Magic. I know, Allen, you just did a whole bunch of talking, but maybe you want to start out this answer. And I know...

不需要旅行。變焦，魔法。我知道，艾倫，你剛剛說了一大堆話，但也許你想開始回答這個問題。而且我知道...

Why don't I start with PA growth and how we're thinking about it and IMT margins, and then I'll let you handle the more macro housing if that works. Thanks for the question.

為什麼我不從 PA 成長以及我們如何考慮它和 IMT 利潤開始，然後我會讓你處理更宏觀的住房問題（如果可行的話）。謝謝你的提問。

So listen, with Premier Agent, we continue to focus on the customer. And the inputs would yield a great result for both the customer and our partner agents. So we're optimizing to connect high-intent customers with high-performing agents. And the output we're seeing is higher CSAT, higher connections volume where we're linking high-intent customers with great partners, strong retention, and the business results that we see reflected in our Q4 results and our Q1 outlook.

因此，請聽著，與 Premier Agent 一起，我們將繼續以客戶為中心。這些投入將為客戶和我們的合作夥伴代理商帶來良好的結果。因此，我們正在優化以將高意向客戶與高績效代理商聯繫起來。我們看到的產出是更高的CSAT、更高的連接量（我們將高意向客戶與優秀的合作夥伴聯繫起來）、強大的保留率以及我們在第四季度業績和第一季展望中看到的業務成果。

On an apples-to-apples basis, we've seen accelerating sequential growth of 20% in Q3 to 27% in Q4 and now 31% at the midpoint of Q1 outlook. We like where we are. We feel it's still early days, and we're not going to hesitate to invest for long-term growth in areas such as technology and marketing. But we feel really good about the current situation and the position we have with respect to PA.

在同類基礎上，我們看到第三季環比增速加快，從 20% 到第四季的 27%，現在第一季前景的中點為 31%。我們喜歡我們現在所處的位置。我們認為現在還處於早期階段，我們會毫不猶豫地投資科技和行銷等領域的長期成長。但我們對目前的情況以及我們在 PA 的立場感到非常滿意。

With respect to the margins, I'll just cover that real quickly. Our outlook implies a 42% margin at the midpoint. That's down from the second half margins we saw in the second half 2020. Our Q1 guidance, I discussed, includes a benefit from the timing of certain investments that are going to occur later in 2021 as compared to prior years. But our focus is on profitable growth.

關於頁邊空白，我很快就會講到。我們的預期利潤率中點為 42%。這比我們在2020 年下半年看到的下半年利潤率有所下降。我討論過，我們的第一季度指導包括與前幾年相比將於2021 年晚些時候進行的某些投資的時機帶來的好處。但我們的重點是獲利成長。

So near term, we do not expect margin expansion off the higher second half 2020 levels. And again, those have benefited from some of the cost controls we put in place based on the uncertainty of the pandemic. But rather, we expect EBITDA dollar growth off the full year 2020 levels. And again, we're very pleased with how the team is executing and we like where we are.

因此，短期內，我們預期利潤率不會高於 2020 年下半年的較高水準。同樣，這些都受益於我們根據大流行的不確定性而實施的一些成本控制。相反，我們預計 EBITDA 的成長將低於 2020 年全年的水平。再說一次，我們對團隊的執行方式非常滿意，我們喜歡我們現在的處境。

Rich, I don't know if you want to cover more macro?

Rich，不知道您是否想涵蓋更多宏觀內容？

Sure. Yes. Thank you for covering the hard stuff that has real numbers and comments in it and leaving the [pan gravy] stuff to me, Allen.

當然。是的。感謝您報道了其中包含真實數字和評論的硬性內容，並將[平底鍋肉汁]的內容留給了我，艾倫。

Yes. I mean, on the housing market and sustainability, Heath, I mean, there's certainly a lot we could talk about and say. But I guess the first thing I'd say is the big thing that's happening that's driving our business and will do so in the long-term is not the cyclicality in the housing market itself, all right? It's the bigger trend, which is movement of all things off-line to online. And real estate, while many thought it might be an exception 20 years ago to the fundamental e-commerce rule, clearly is not. And we are -- customers are moving online, which is fantastic. And we, as the leaders are the outsized beneficiary of that. And we've been there for longest time with the biggest brand. And so that's the biggest thing facing us.

是的。我的意思是，關於房地產市場和永續發展，希思，我的意思是，我們當然有很多可以談論和說的。但我想我要說的第一件事是正在發生的推動我們業務並將長期發展的大事不是房地產市場本身的周期性，好嗎？這是更大的趨勢，即所有事物都從線下轉移到線上。而房地產，雖然 20 年前許多人認為這可能是電子商務基本規則的例外，但事實顯然並非如此。我們——客戶正在轉向線上，這太棒了。而我們身為領導者是其中的巨大受益者。我們已經在最大的品牌中待了最長的時間。這就是我們面臨的最重要的事情。

And one other thing, I guess, is that we have all this kind of potential energy in the top of funnel with all this shopping traffic we have that is not being monetized today. And so we've got a lot of growth to happen just in increasing conversion and engagement within our funnel.

我想，另一件事是，我們在漏斗頂部擁有所有這些潛在能量，而我們擁有的所有購物流量今天都沒有被貨幣化。因此，只要提高通路內的轉換率和參與度，我們就可以達到很大的成長。

Okay. Now going down into the actual dynamics of the housing market. Right now, we have certainly have a lot to say. Our econ team has published a pretty aggressive forecast for 2021. But we, as I said, we don't have a crystal ball. Obviously, that doesn't stop -- hasn't stopped me in the past from prognosticating, so let me take a -- let me look at a few topics here. One, let's talk about the tailwinds. I guess the second is inventory velocity. And then the third is kind of pent-up listings demand.

好的。現在我們來看看房地產市場的實際動態。現在，我們當然有很多話要說。我們的經濟團隊發布了對 2021 年相當激進的預測。但正如我所說，我們沒有水晶球。顯然，這並沒有阻止我過去的預測，所以讓我考慮這裡的幾個主題。第一，讓我們來談談順風。我想第二個是庫存速度。第三是被壓抑的上市需求。

On the tailwinds one, there is the technology tailwind that I've already talked about. This is the off-line to online shift, and that is a big one, and that's just -- that's blowing. And that's sped up during COVID, but it's not going to stop blowing. We've got a long way to go.

在順風方面，我已經談到了技術順風。這是從線下到線上的轉變，這是一個很大的轉變，而且那隻是——那是爆炸性的。在新冠疫情期間，這種趨勢加速了，但它不會停止。我們還有很長的路要走。

The real estate tailwind that's kind of been catalyzed mainly by the pandemic, freeing people from their commutes and freeing them to move and rethink their homes, that's a real one. And I believe that, that's going to play out over a long period of time, too. It takes a long time for people to decide to move. And it takes a long time for companies that they are catching up. It's going to take a long time for companies to grapple with the fact that in order to compete for the best talent, they have to give that talent flexibility. So this is going to happen. I think this is going to play out over a long period of time, too. That's that kind of great reshuffling point.

主要由疫情推動的房地產順風，將人們從通勤中解放出來，讓他們能夠搬家並重新考慮自己的房屋，這是真正的順風順水。我相信，這也將在很長一段時間內發揮作用。人們需要很長時間才能決定搬家。對於公司來說，他們需要很長時間才能趕上。公司需要很長時間才能認識到這樣一個事實：為了爭奪最優秀的人才，他們必須給予人才彈性。所以這將會發生。我認為這也將在很長一段時間內發揮作用。這就是那種偉大的洗牌點。

There's some really interesting demographic things that are setting up to drive sustainable growth as well around millennials buying -- having babies and buying homes right now and low mortgage rates for the foreseeable future. We don't have a crystal ball there, but it's setting up pretty well. All of those things make us, our econ team, but also me believe that this is a pretty durable macro growth setup for the housing industry.

一些非常有趣的人口統計因素正在推動永續成長，以及圍繞千禧世代的購買——現在生孩子、買房，以及在可預見的未來降低抵押貸款利率。我們那裡沒有水晶球，但它設置得很好。所有這些事情使我們，我們的經濟團隊，但我也相信，這對房地產行業來說是一個相當持久的宏觀成長機制。

A quick note to talk about. I mean, I did in my prepared remarks, but this inventory volume velocity point is a pretty important one. I think a lot -- I find myself explaining to a lot of people at the company and outside the company who read shocking headlines about galactically historically low inventory, and they think it's over for the housing market. It's going to freeze, it's going to stop, we're not going to have any inventory. That, of course, only makes sense if you don't look at how quickly things are selling, right? So having homes sit on the market for 25 fewer days than they did a year ago in December, 17 days total, is fairly shocking. That is the headline for this market right now is velocity.

一個簡短的說明。我的意思是，我在準備好的發言中做到了這一點，但這個庫存量速度點是一個非常重要的點。我想了很多——我發現自己向公司內外的很多人解釋，他們讀到了令人震驚的頭條新聞，庫存處於歷史低位，他們認為房地產市場已經結束了。它會凍結，它會停止，我們不會有任何庫存。當然，只有當你不考慮商品的銷售速度時，這才有意義，對嗎？因此，房屋在市場上的停留時間比一年前 12 月少了 25 天，總共 17 天，這是相當令人震驚的。目前這個市場的焦點是速度。

And so I have no doubt that Econ 101 comes into play with supply and demand. And as home prices appreciate, as home prices rise, of course, more supply is going to come into the market, that's just the way markets work. I'm highly confident in that one.

因此，我毫不懷疑 Econ 101 會在供給和需求方面發揮作用。隨著房價上漲，當然，隨著房價上漲，更多的供應將進入市場，這就是市場運作的方式。我對此非常有信心。

I also think, from a pent-up listings perspective, I think that we've seen 15 years of people wanting to move and not moving since the global financial crisis for various reasons. I also believe there may be a little kind of COVID-related anxiety to list your house right now. That as we get post vax, we may see some of that loosen up as well, but those are more minor. I'm really sorry for taking up so much airtime, everybody, but it's important stuff.

我還認為，從被壓抑的房源數量的角度來看，自全球金融危機以來，我們已經看到 15 年來人們因為各種原因想要搬家和不搬家。我還相信，現在可能會有一些與新冠病毒相關的焦慮，需要列出您的房子。當我們獲得疫苗後，我們可能會看到其中一些放鬆，但這些都是較小的。我真的很抱歉佔據了大家這麼多的通話時間，但這很重要。

The next question comes from the line of Lloyd Walmsley with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的勞埃德‧沃姆斯利 (Lloyd Walmsley)。

I have two. First, just can you talk about some of the drivers for the unit economics improvements in the Homes segment? How much of that is the home price appreciation versus efficiency gains versus the benefit of the newer cohort? And give us a sense for how we should think about this going forward, given just the magnitude of the improvement we saw.

我有兩個。首先，您能談談住宅領域單位經濟效益改善的一些驅動因素嗎？其中房價升值與效率提升與新群體的收益相比有多少？考慮到我們所看到的改進幅度，讓我們了解未來應該如何思考的發展。

And then secondly, can you give us the update on some of your tests around partner leads? What you're seeing there? And how much you think you may be scaling that this year versus continuing to be in experimental mode? Anything you could share there would be great.

其次，您能否向我們提供有關合作夥伴線索的一些測試的最新資訊？你在那裡看到什麼？您認為今年與繼續處於實驗模式相比，您可能會擴大多少規模？你能在那裡分享的任何東西都會很棒。

Great. Thanks, Lloyd. All right. So why don't I start with unit economics. As we reported, Q4 unit economics were 607 -- approximately 670 basis points of profit per home before interest as compared to Q3 results that were a loss of 90 basis points, so that's an improvement of 760 basis points quarter-over-quarter. A swing was not unexpected as Q3 reflected the impact of us selling off the tail of the prepandemic inventory as opposed to Q4 reflecting the benefit of early sales of post-pause purchase cohorts.

偉大的。謝謝，勞埃德。好的。那我為什麼不從單位經濟學開始呢？正如我們所報導的那樣，第四季度的單位經濟效益為607，即每套住房的息前利潤約為670 個基點，而第三季度的結果則損失了90 個基點，因此比上一季度提高了760 個基點。波動並不意外，因為第三季度反映了我們拋售大流行前庫存尾部的影響，而第四季度則反映了暫停後購買群體提前銷售的好處。

But there are 2 other factors that I'd like to call out, and Rich has touched on some of those. So the HPA trends and sales velocity performed a lot stronger than our underwriting assumptions and contributed to a pretty significant portion of the 500 basis points improvement that you see in our acquisition costs. Where our acquisition cost as a percentage of the average sale price went from 91.1% to 85.9%. So that's mix, but a lot of that is the macro trends.

但我還想指出另外兩個因素，里奇已經談到了其中的一些因素。因此，HPA 趨勢和銷售速度的表現比我們的核保假設要強得多，並且在我們的購買成本中看到的 500 個基點改善中貢獻了相當大的一部分。我們的購買成本占平均銷售價格的百分比從 91.1% 上升到 85.9%。所以這是混合的，但其中很多是宏觀趨勢。

The other thing I'll call is the other 3 cost lines of innovations, holding costs and selling costs, which improved 250 basis points over Q3 include in these improvements, some real operational improvements that are durable. We're constantly learning and improving over time, which results in continual improvements in our customer value, proposition value, of our offers. So that's -- we're glad to be back up and running. And as we learn, we're able to provide more value proposition to our customers.

我要說的另一件事是其他 3 個創新成本線，即持有成本和銷售成本，比第三季提高了 250 個基點，這些改進包括一些持久的實際營運改善。隨著時間的推移，我們不斷學習和改進，從而不斷提高我們的客戶價值、主張價值和我們的產品和服務。所以，我們很高興能夠恢復運作。隨著我們的了解，我們能夠為客戶提供更多的價值主張。

We do expect some of the pricing spread to be temporal over time, but we will continue -- we still see -- continue to see opportunities for improvement across all 4 of the cost components. I expect this metric is going to continue to be a little bumpy as we continue to come out of the air gap in the post-pause. But the direction I'll give is we're still maintaining the plus or minus 200 basis point guardrails and we're going to continue to have those as guardrails as we grow and scale.

我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，一些定價差異將是暫時的，但我們將繼續——我們仍然看到——繼續看到所有 4 個成本組成部分的改進機會。我預計隨著我們繼續走出暫停後的空白，這個指標將繼續有點坎坷。但我要給的方向是，我們仍然維持正負 200 個基點的護欄，並且隨著我們的成長和規模擴大，我們將繼續將這些作為護欄。

And as we continue to learn, we'll be able to provide real cost improvements that will benefit our ability to provide value in our customer offers. I hope that helps.

隨著我們不斷學習，我們將能夠提供真正的成本改進，這將有利於我們為客戶提供價值的能力。我希望這有幫助。

And then with the second question, I guess, I'll move to it on some of the bundled services. We're in early stages of building our suite of services, but we like the initial results we're seeing. We feel like we've built out the core pieces and are moving deeper into the transaction. We've expanded Zillow Closing Services to 25 markets during 2020. And as we called out, the vast majority of our customers are now choosing to use our closing services when they buy a home through Zillow Offers. But we're not just thinking about Zillow Closing Services. There's some programs that we've begun to run across the country, still early stages. And when customers are exposed to our suite of services, there is a meaningful uptick in demand, and there's increased value per transaction. This is not a surprise to us. It's still early stages, but we feel strongly that our thesis of Zillow 2.0 is correct.

然後，我想，對於第二個問題，我將轉向一些捆綁服務。我們正處於建立服務套件的早期階段，但我們對所看到的初步結果感到滿意。我們覺得我們已經建立了核心部分，並且正在更深入地進行交易。 2020 年，我們已將 Zillow Closing Services 擴展到 25 個市場。正如我們所說，我們的絕大多數客戶現在在透過 Zillow Offers 購買房屋時選擇使用我們的過戶服務。但我們不只考慮 Zillow Closing Services。我們已經開始在全國範圍內開展一些項目，但仍處於早期階段。當客戶接觸到我們的服務套件時，需求就會顯著增加，每筆交易的價值也會增加。這對我們來說並不奇怪。現在還處於早期階段，但我們強烈認為我們的 Zillow 2.0 論點是正確的。

And I'll close with just saying, as we see this increased evidence that providing a seamless integrated real estate experience to our customers is welcome, we can use that, we can use our low-cost of customer acquisition to compete against an industry that's still largely single point solution providers that have higher CAC.

最後我想說的是，隨著我們看到越來越多的證據表明，為我們的客戶提供無縫整合的房地產體驗是受歡迎的，我們可以利用這一點，我們可以利用我們的低成本客戶獲取來與一個行業競爭仍然主要是具有更高 CAC 的單點解決方案提供者。

And again, Lloyd, there's an N of 1 on your -- on that question that I think the video is 2 minutes. I do encourage you to click on that from the shareholder letter of that, that Terry Lee testimonial. Anyway, that's just -- it kind of brings it to life.

勞埃德，在你的問題上，我認為影片長度為 2 分鐘，N 為 1。我確實鼓勵您點擊股東信中的內容，即特里李的感言。不管怎樣，這只是──它讓它變得栩栩如生。

The next question comes from the line of Ron Josey with JMP Securities.

下一個問題來自 JMP 證券的 Ron Josey。

And I guess, we inched a lot about 2.0, but maybe just a little bit more, Rich, just talking about all the different services that our offers -- are out there between Offers, Premier Agent, Home Loans, Closing Services. Just can you talk about just what we might expect for Offers going to more geographies or more locations, same thing for Closing Services. Do we expect that all 50 states as 2.0 becomes a reality?

我想，我們在 2.0 方面進步了很多，但也許只是多了一點，Rich，只是談論我們提供的所有不同服務——在報價、高級代理、住房貸款、結帳服務之間。您能否談談我們對更多地理位置或更多地點的報價的期望，對於成交服務也是如此。我們是否期望 2.0 的所有 50 個州成為現實？

And then I'd also love to understand a little bit more around just the progress in Flex as the Premier Agent business continues to just do so well.

然後，我還想更多地了解 Flex 的進展，因為 Premier Agent 業務繼續表現出色。

Sorry I was on mute. Well, a lot of the -- Lloyd got in the question, and Allen got in the answer on a lot of the kind of the energy and evidence we're seeing around the beginnings around bundled seamless transaction being what customers want. Of course, it's our strong intuition, it makes a ton of sense. The world is going to one-click, why not real estate? Like that's where we're headed.

抱歉我當時處於靜音狀態。勞埃德提出了很多問題，艾倫則給了答案，其中包括我們在捆綁無縫交易開始時看到的大量精力和證據，這就是客戶想要的。當然，這是我們強烈的直覺，它很有道理。世界要一鍵化，房地產為何不可以？這就是我們要去的地方。

And so the fact that we have invested big in every one of these ancillary services and now can begin to stitch them together in a way that a lot of the folks that just provide point solutions can't or will struggle with is like a -- this is a big strategic bet we're making. It has the added benefit of having terrific kind of ecosystem economics from the customer acquisition cost perspective as well. So we're really running hard at that.

因此，我們在每項輔助服務上都投入了大量資金，現在可以開始以一種許多只提供單點解決方案的人無法或將苦苦掙扎的方式將它們縫合在一起，這一事實就像——這是我們正在做出的一個重大策略賭注。從客戶獲取成本的角度來看，它還有一個額外的好處，那就是擁有極佳的生態系統經濟學。所以我們真的很努力。

On the Zillow Offers stuff, it's still really, really small. It's just -- it's beginning to look big, but it's still really, really small. We're way less than 1% of the market right now with this. But in Zillow Offers is the seeds of the future of a streamlined transaction, which is why you're seeing us do so much innovating and integrating and testing on that product right now. And that is spilling over into bringing a much more accountable transaction, partner quality, integrated mindset to our Premier Agent and IMT businesses as well. That is what led to Flex, to your question, okay? And we really love the way Flex has lined up to be a win-win-win by focusing our compensation on customer success, which is getting into a new home, right? So we've seen really good traction there, and that's brought a whole new kind of quality assurance, transaction responsibility. Responsibility for the customer itself. It's brought that mindset to that business, and you can see it in the numbers. Look what's happening. And look at our guidance for next quarter, it's really coming together nicely.

在 Zillow Offers 上，它仍然非常非常小。只是——它開始看起來很大，但它仍然非常非常小。目前我們的市佔率還不到 1%。但 Zillow Offers 是簡化交易未來的種子，這就是為什麼您看到我們現在對該產品進行了大量創新、整合和測試。這也為我們的高級代理商和 IMT 業務帶來了更負責任的交易、合作夥伴品質和綜合思維。這就是 Flex 誕生的原因，也是你提出問題的原因，好嗎？我們真的很喜歡偉創力透過將薪酬重點放在客戶成功（即搬進新家）上來實現雙贏的方式，對吧？因此，我們在那裡看到了非常好的吸引力，這帶來了一種全新的品質保證和交易責任。對客戶本身的責任。它將這種思維方式帶入了該業務，您可以從數字中看到這一點。看看發生了什麼事。看看我們對下個季度的指導，它真的很好地結合在一起。

That's great. And maybe just one follow-up on Offers. Any thoughts on buy box as the depreciation continues to go up on homes?

那太棒了。也許只是優惠的一項後續行動。隨著房屋折舊持續上升，對Buy Box有什麼想法嗎？

Allen, you want to? Allen's on mute.

艾倫，你願意嗎？艾倫處於靜音狀態。

All right. Thanks, Ron. Yes. I guess what I'd say is we continue, as we came out of the pause, we had a relatively conservative buy box as we brought our processes back. We continue to assess where we can add value to customers and at what ranges. So I think it's going to vary by market, and we'll continue to, as I said, iterate, learn and adjust as appropriate. So we're excited about the acquisition pace that we have been able to achieve in Q4 and the momentum that we're bringing into 2021. Buy box is just one of those ways, but we continue to look at where we can provide value for our customers.

好的。謝謝，羅恩。是的。我想我想說的是，當我們擺脫暫停時，我們會繼續，當我們恢復流程時，我們有一個相對保守的購買框。我們繼續評估我們可以在哪些方面以及在什麼範圍內為客戶增加價值。所以我認為它會因市場而異，正如我所說，我們將繼續迭代、學習和適當調整。因此，我們對第四季度能夠實現的收購速度以及我們為 2021 年帶來的勢頭感到興奮。Buy Box 只是其中一種方式，但我們將繼續尋找可以在哪些方面提供價值我們的顧客。

The next question comes from the line of Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

下一個問題來自 Ryan McKeveny 與 Zelman & Associates 的對話。

Rich and Allen, congratulations on the great results. And Rich, I really enjoyed the commentary you gave around the inventory versus velocity and new listings, and very much in agreement with you there, and that will tie into the second part of my question. So it's two-parter coming up.

里奇和艾倫，恭喜你們取得如此好的成績。里奇，我真的很喜歡你對庫存與速度和新上市的評論，並且非常同意你的觀點，這將與我問題的第二部分聯繫起來。所以這是兩部分即將到來。

First question, on iBuying, I guess there's some debate around whether just the overall strength and competitiveness of the housing market today is a headwind against the concept of iBuying, just given kind of how quickly homes are able to be sold traditionally. And I think your results speak for themselves in terms of the purchase activity in the quarter, the rise in inventory. So clearly, there's still plenty of interest from sellers. But I'm curious if you're seeing any different consumer behavior? Any difference in the demographic? Around those who are actually choosing the iBuyer offer today versus kind of pre-pandemic.

第一個問題，關於 iBuying，我想，考慮到傳統房屋的銷售速度，目前房地產市場的整體實力和競爭力是否會阻礙 iBuying 的概念，存在一些爭論。我認為，從本季的購買活動和庫存增加來看，您的結果不言自明。很明顯，賣家仍然有很大的興趣。但我很好奇您是否看到任何不同的消費者行為？人口結構有什麼不同嗎？圍繞著那些今天實際選擇 iBuyer 報價的人與大流行前的情況。

And second piece of the question, to the extent that sellers are preferring to list traditionally rather than take that iBuyer offer, are you able to kind of back to the comment around just the listing side of things, pent-up listings, are you able to look at that as a gauge of just overall pent-up listing demand, and kind of prospective sellers coming to the market?

第二個問題，如果賣家更喜歡以傳統方式列出而不是接受 iBuyer 的報價，您是否能夠回到圍繞列表方面的評論，即被壓抑的列表，您是否能夠將其視為總體被壓抑的上市需求以及進入市場的潛在賣家的指標？

And last point, sorry, maybe it's a 3 pointer. Curious if you can just give an update on how you're doing around monetizing the seller leads or the partner leads that might be coming from those that are declining the initial iBuyer bid?

最後一點，抱歉，也許是三分球。是否想知道您是否可以提供有關如何利用可能來自拒絕初始 iBuyer 出價的賣家潛在客戶或合作夥伴潛在客戶獲利的最新資訊？

Okay. That's testing my note taking ability, Ryan. Thanks. We -- the team has been working on analogies to get people to focus on this time on market and velocity concept, so they're going to love to hear that you appreciated those analogies. And I know you guys write a lot about this, so steal away.

好的。這是在測試我的筆記能力，瑞安。謝謝。我們的團隊一直在研究類比，讓人們關注這次的市場和速度概念，所以他們會很高興聽到你欣賞這些類比。我知道你們寫了很多關於這個的文章，所以我偷偷走開。

So maybe I'll start, Allen, with the first question, which I'll basically restate as is ZO still attractive in such a hot market? Well, it's working. Look, our acquisitions were up year-over-year in Q4 for the first time since COVID started. So I mean the answer to your question is unknowable. I'm sure there are a bunch of puts and takes. Clearly, this is such a head-slappingly obvious, better, easier, more convenient way to do things than the old way, that I don't think the interest in the product is going to change a whole lot based on hot or cold markets, I really don't. But you know, it's unknowable.

艾倫，也許我會從第一個問題開始，我基本上會重申一下，因為 ZO 在如此熱門的市場中仍然有吸引力嗎？嗯，它正在發揮作用。看，自新冠疫情爆發以來，我們的收購量在第四季度首次同比增長。所以我的意思是你的問題的答案是不可知的。我確信有很多的變化。顯然，這是一種比舊方式更明顯、更好、更容易、更方便的做事方式，我認為人們對產品的興趣不會因為市場的冷熱而發生很大變化。 ，我真的不知道。但你知道，這是不可知的。

And there may be some COVID-related hesitancy that makes ZO more attractive right now. But honestly, we don't really know, but we're looking at the trends. We're looking at how we've reopened these markets. We are excited by those line items on the cost side that Allen ticked through, showing some leverage so that we can offer even better pricing to sellers and thus increase the size of the market. So we like what we're seeing there.

可能存在一些與新冠病毒相關的猶豫，這使得 ZO 目前更具吸引力。但老實說，我們真的不知道，但我們正在關注趨勢。我們正在研究如何重新開放這些市場。我們對艾倫勾選的成本方面的這些項目感到興奮，顯示出一些槓桿作用，以便我們可以為賣家提供更好的定價，從而擴大市場規模。所以我們喜歡在那裡看到的東西。

On your second question, I guess the thing I'd point to as the best gauge to pent-up demand to sell or pent-up demand to move, I guess they're sort of one and the same, is engagement. I mean, what was the sparkler I threw out there? 9.6 billion visits we had in 2020, up 1.5 billion. I think it was like 19% up year-over-year. That, to me, I don't have a lot of more anecdotal or survey-based stuff to give you color, but I don't think we really need it. We can look at the ferocity with which people are attacking their home searching and dreaming and be pretty comfortable that we've got a ways to -- we've got some pent-up demand.

關於你的第二個問題，我想我認為衡量被壓抑的銷售需求或被壓抑的行動需求的最佳衡量標準是參與度，我想它們是同一回事。我是說，我丟在那裡的煙火是什麼？ 2020 年，我們的訪問量達到 96 億人次，增加了 15 億人次。我認為同比增長了 19%。對我來說，我沒有更多的軼事或基於調查的東西來給你提供信息，但我認為我們並不真正需要它。我們可以看到人們對他們的房屋搜索和夢想的猛烈攻擊，並且對我們有辦法做到這一點感到非常滿意——我們有一些被壓抑的需求。

On your third question, I'd just repoint to Allen's answer from 1 or 2 questions ago and say, we're really excited by the early signals that we're seeing in an integrated bundled offering. It just makes so much sense. And we're seeing all kinds of early evidence to -- that's kind of confirmatory to our somewhat audacious strategic bet that we're making here on integration.

關於你的第三個問題，我只想重申艾倫在前一兩個問題中的回答，並說，我們對在整合式捆綁產品中看到的早期訊號感到非常興奮。這很有意義。我們看到了各種早期證據——這在某種程度上證實了我們在整合方面所做的大膽策略押注。

The next question comes from the line of Ygal Arounian of Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Ygal Arounian。

I guess I have a couple of follow-ups to some of the questions that have been asked. First, on the last one and a hot market and how iBuying or Zillow Offers fits into that. It sounds like you haven't necessarily done anything with the fees that you asked on that. How do you think about moving to see have you lowered it at all to drum up some of the demand? Or has it been there kind of naturally with the kind of average fee that you've been asking for historically there?

我想我對所提出的一些問題有一些後續行動。首先，關於最後一個市場，以及 iBuying 或 Zillow Offers 如何適應這個市場。聽起來你並沒有對你所要求的費用做任何事。您如何看待是否要降低價格以吸引一些需求？或者它是否自然而然地存在，並且按照您歷史上一直要求的平均費用？

And then on the kind of on the end-to-end bundled service, just listening to some of the executives from the traditional brokerages and players in the space at a conference a few weeks ago. And so maybe I'll ask it from the opposite point of view. And they all kind of continue to view the world as being a platform giving options versus having everything in-house and having your own mortgage broker and selling your own product, but actually giving the consumer choice and you believing that the consumer wants choice across the way. Obviously, that's not your stance, and would love to hear why you think that's not the right stance, that giving people choice.

然後是關於端到端捆綁服務，幾週前在一次會議上，我聽了一些來自傳統經紀公司和該領域參與者的高管的演講。所以也許我會從相反的角度來問這個問題。他們都繼續將世界視為一個提供選擇的平台，而不是擁有自己的一切、擁有自己的抵押貸款經紀人並銷售自己的產品，但實際上是給消費者選擇，而你相信消費者想要跨越領域的選擇方式。顯然，這不是你的立場，並且很想聽聽為什麼你認為這不是正確的立場，即給予人們選擇。

Okay. Allen, you maybe want to take the first bit on the fee, and I'll try to address the no choice question.

好的。艾倫，你也許想承擔第一筆費用，我會盡力解決沒有選擇的問題。

Sure. Sure. Thanks for the question. This is Allen. Yes. I think I just would point out, in responding to that, that fee is just one of the components of the offer that we make to a customer who's interested in possibly selling through Zillow Offers, selling to us. And the fee is dynamic. And so when I talk about our unit economics and the pricing spread being a little more temporal and our guardrails being plus or minus 200, we're constantly adjusting dynamically all of the elements of the offer, and we're testing how we communicate those elements of the offer to any customer who -- or to any potential seller, so it's transparent and clear on what it costs. And Rich even called out the dynamic Zestimate as an offer eventually are starting.

當然。當然。謝謝你的提問。這是艾倫。是的。我想我只是想指出，針對這一點，該費用只是我們向有興趣透過 Zillow Offers 向我們銷售的客戶提供的報價的組成部分之一。而且費用是動態的。因此，當我談到我們的單位經濟性和定價價差稍微暫時性以及我們的護欄為正負 200 時，我們會不斷動態調整報價的所有要素，並且我們正在測試如何傳達這些要素向任何客戶或任何潛在賣家提供報價的要素，因此其成本是透明且明確的。 Rich 甚至宣布了動態 Zestimate，因為報價最終即將開始。

But -- so what I would say is that our business model and the way our model works, with respect to the seller, is extremely dynamic and takes into account these macro conditions. What did occur in Q4 somewhat was that the market outran some of our initial assumptions, and we're catching up. So we're constantly learning. That's -- we have a feedback loop as we have each one of these data points. And so I would expect that offer to be competitive but constantly informed by all of the factors that are out there with respect to velocity, HPA and so on and so forth. If that helps.

但是——所以我想說的是，我們的商業模式和我們的模式的運作方式，對於賣方而言，是非常動態的，並且考慮到了這些宏觀條件。第四季確實發生的情況是，市場超出了我們最初的一些假設，而我們正在迎頭趕上。所以我們不斷學習。那就是——我們有一個回饋循環，因為我們擁有這些數據點中的每一個。因此，我希望該報價具有競爭力，但會不斷考慮與速度、HPA 等相關的所有因素。如果有幫助的話。

And then Rich, did you want to talk on us delivering the customer choice?

Rich，您想談談我們如何為客戶提供選擇嗎？

Yes. I mean, it's a fun one, but I've been sitting here trying to think how I would answer. Look, customers want convenience. It's a pretty bad bet to bet against convenience, speed, price integration in any business, okay? And especially, customers want simplicity in one click when it's something they don't care a ton about. They just need it to get done.

是的。我的意思是，這很有趣，但我一直坐在這裡思考我該如何回答。看，顧客想要方便。在任何行業中，不考慮便利性、速度、價格整合都是一個非常糟糕的賭注，好嗎？尤其是，當客戶不太關心的事情時，他們希望一鍵簡單。他們只是需要它來完成任務。

I'll use Amazon to buy most everything. But there are a few things that I really care about that I know I need to go to a specialty e-commerce retailer to go find because they're my particular areas of interest. I'm deciding not to say what those are because I don't want to be judged. But by and large, having it all behind one click and with Prime delivery on Amazon works really well. And that same kind of idea certainly holds true, we think, in real estate. What people want to do is get into their new house. Everything else is an obstacle, okay? Everything else is an obstacle. And I'm not saying we need to bundle so that we can somehow take advantage of them on pricing of these spot things. That's not what we want to do. We want to bring price down as much as we possibly can. But the prime thing we want to do is integrate this, make it super easy and convenient and maybe joyful at some point so that people can just get to their better place.

我會使用亞馬遜購買大部分東西。但有一些我真正關心的東西，我知道我需要去專業電子商務零售商才能找到，因為它們是我特別感興趣的領域。我決定不說這些是什麼，因為我不想被評斷。但總的來說，一鍵點擊和亞馬遜 Prime 送貨服務效果非常好。我們認為，同樣的想法在房地產領域也同樣適用。人們想做的就是搬進新房子。其他一切都是障礙，好嗎？其他一切都是障礙。我並不是說我們需要捆綁，以便我們可以以某種方式利用它們對這些現貨的定價。那不是我們想要做的。我們希望盡可能降低價格。但我們想做的首要事情就是整合這一點，讓它變得超級簡單和方便，也許在某個時候是快樂的，這樣人們就可以到達他們更好的地方。

Anyway, that's from all the years that we've spent with building consumer products, this feels intuitively correct. There will absolutely be specialty point solutions for all kinds of stuff that people care about and want to shop for and certain kinds of professionals that have specific expertise that people seek out. There's no question that's going to happen. Our bet is that for the middle of the bell curve of the market, integration is really important.

無論如何，這是我們多年來致力於建立消費產品的結果，直觀上感覺這是正確的。對於人們關心和想要購買的各種物品以及具有人們尋求的特定專業知識的某些類型的專業人士來說，絕對會有專業的點解決方案。毫無疑問這將會發生。我們的賭注是，對於市場鐘形曲線的中間部分，整合非常重要。

And if I could just ask one quick follow-up on, I guess, both of those points tied together. Bringing the kind of in-house brokerage on Zillow Offers, anything you're learning there that's helping drive the flywheel versus just saving costs?

如果我能問一個快速的後續行動，我想，這兩點都是連結在一起的。在 Zillow Offers 上引入內部經紀業務，您在那裡學到的任何東西有助於推動飛輪而不是僅僅節省成本？

Tons. We're -- with Zillow Offers and now the brokerage that's associated with Zillow Offers, we're finally actually in the end-user customer satisfaction, customer service business. We used to be in the kind of media customer traffic business and not in the customer service business. And so that's -- I talked about it a little more previously on the call. The spillover effect from having an owned and operated operation, where we're actually buying and selling homes, and we're actually closing these transactions. The spillover goodness to the core business is difficult to quantify how important it is. And we see it'll drive a ton of opportunity in the core business on a go-forward basis.

噸。我們透過 Zillow Offers 以及現在與 Zillow Offers 相關的經紀業務，最終真正進入了最終用戶客戶滿意度和客戶服務業務。我們以前做的是媒體客流業務，而不是客服業務。所以這就是——我之前在電話會議上談過這個問題。擁有並經營的業務所產生的溢出效應，我們實際上是在買賣房屋，而我們實際上正在完成這些交易。對核心業務的溢出效應的重要性難以量化。我們認為它將在未來的基礎上為核心業務帶來大量機會。

And as I said on the call, these businesses, ZO and PA, are getting a lot closer together because that's happening because of all this learning, and because we're seeing common solutions that we're building for ZO to be applicable to the whole -- the industry as a whole, just like with the ShowingTime acquisition today, that's one of those things that we see. And as they come closer together, they're actually opening up even larger swaps of kind of unmowed grass, just like bigger chunks of opportunity that we see given all this traffic and engagement we have. So we're excited.

正如我在電話中所說，ZO 和PA 這些企業的聯繫越來越緊密，因為所有這些學習都在發生這種情況，而且因為我們看到了我們正在為ZO 構建的通用解決方案，這些解決方案適用於整個產業——就像今天收購 ShowingTime 一樣，這是我們看到的事情之一。當它們靠得更近時，它們實際上正在開闢更大的未割草的交換，就像我們看到的更大的機會，考慮到我們擁有的所有這些流量和參與度。所以我們很興奮。

Our last question comes from the line of Tom Champion with Piper.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Tom Champion 和 Piper 的對話。

So your economists are saying 20% transactions growth this year. Curious your sense of whether we'll return to kind of more normal seasonality with peak selling being in the summer months and whether that line of thinking should be incorporated into our estimates, just as you gave us the 1Q guide, but as we think through the balance of the year, would be curious your thoughts on that.

所以你們的經濟學家說今年交易量成長 20%。好奇您是否會回到更正常的季節性，即夏季銷售高峰，以及是否應該將這種思路納入我們的估計中，就像您向我們提供第一季指南一樣，但當我們仔細考慮時今年剩下的時間，我很好奇你對此的想法。

And then 35% PA growth, that's really strong. What do you see as the pain points in that business today? What are kind of the product opportunities for PA going forward? And I think you said this, Allen, but maybe an 8% boost from Flex in that business? If you could just confirm that.

然後 PA 增長 35%，這確實很強勁。您認為現今該產業的痛點是什麼？ PA未來有哪些產品機會？我想你是這麼說的，Allen，但偉創力在該業務中可能帶來 8% 的成長？如果你能證實這一點就好了。

So Rich, do you want me to tick through the PA real quick? And then you can talk about...

那麼 Rich，你想讓我很快地在 PA 上打勾嗎？然後你就可以談論...

Yes.

是的。

The other projections, again, we are providing quarterly.

我們再次每季提供其他預測。

Yes. Thanks, Tom. Yes. So with respect to Flex, when you think about the 35% Q4, if you exclude the impact of some of the revenue timing changes that we've discussed in prior quarters, and they come on both sides, about 200 basis points of growth in Q4 came from leads that we delivered prior to Q3. So that drove 200 basis points of growth in Q4. And then the remaining amount to get you to the 27% growth apples-to-apples came from the fact that we had a comp against 2019, where we did a flip to the entire Flex region for Phoenix and Atlanta. So that is the 800 basis points that you were calling out.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。是的。因此，就 Flex 而言，當你考慮第 4 季 35% 的成長時，如果排除我們在前幾個季度討論過的一些收入時間變化的影響，而且這些變化來自雙方，那麼，成長約 200 個基點第四季來自我們在第三季之前交付的銷售線索。這推動了第四季度 200 個基點的成長。然後，剩下的金額讓您實現 27% 的同等增長，這是因為我們對 2019 年進行了比較，當時我們對菲尼克斯和亞特蘭大的整個 Flex 地區進行了翻轉。這就是您所說的 800 個基點。

With respect to pain points and so -- I mean, I believe the team has been operating really well on the inputs. Our goal is to obviously leverage our traffic and to bring high-intent customers together with agents. And some of those pain points is how do you get them connected? I think our connections investment that we've made in the last 2 years, while a little rocky to start, has yielded a lot of benefits. I believe things like the ShowingTime investment and schedule a tour is another example of areas where there's still friction of getting customers -- high-intent customers and agents together. So I believe some of this online -- off-line to online and leveraging tools that we have and can build is going to reduce a lot of those friction points. So again, that's part of the excitement we have on helping the customer and benefiting not just the customer, but the partner agents as well as Zillow as we link these -- get a customer into the house they want.

關於痛點等等——我的意思是，我相信團隊在投入方面運作得非常好。我們的目標是明顯地利用我們的流量並將高意圖的客戶與代理商聚集在一起。其中一些痛點是如何將它們連接起來？我認為我們在過去兩年中進行的人脈投資雖然一開始有點困難，但已經產生了許多好處。我相信像 ShowingTime 投資和安排參觀這樣的事情是在吸引客戶方面仍然存在摩擦的另一個例子——高意向的客戶和代理商在一起。因此，我相信其中一些在線——從線下到線上，以及利用我們擁有和可以建造的工具將減少許多摩擦點。再說一次，這就是我們為幫助客戶而感到興奮的一部分，不僅使客戶受益，而且使合作夥伴代理商以及 Zillow 受益，因為我們將這些聯繫起來 - 讓客戶進入他們想要的房子。

So Rich, I don't know if you want to talk anything about seasonality?

So Rich，不知道您是否想談季節性？

Yes. I mean, look, I'm not going to be able to give you a better view, Tom, than Dr. Svenja, who runs our econ team. I've obviously looked at the forecast and looked at the drivers, and it's all right there on the econ website for you to dig into as well and be critical of or agree with or not.

是的。我的意思是，湯姆，我無法為您提供比管理我們經濟團隊的斯文賈博士更好的觀點。顯然，我已經查看了預測並查看了驅動因素，經濟網站上也有這些內容供您深入研究並批評或同意或不同意。

I would say, though, that my kind of cheap seats arm chair economist perspective is that these are tidal. These are tectonic shifts that are driving the market. And as I said in my long-winded answer, I think they're going to play out over quite some time. And I think they'll probably swamp what we would consider normal seasonality in the industry this year. That's our best guess. A lot of the tail off for other forecasts has to do with kind of misery, some of the misery stuff. Brad, stop me if you want to muzzle me, but I would say that it's a sad thing to say, but even misery drives reshuffling and moving as well.

不過，我想說的是，我的廉價座位扶手椅經濟學家觀點是，這些都是潮汐現象。這些都是推動市場的結構性轉變。正如我在冗長的回答中所說，我認為它們將在相當長的一段時間內發揮作用。我認為它們可能會淹沒我們今年認為的行業正常季節性。這是我們最好的猜測。其他預測的下降很大程度上與某種痛苦有關，一些痛苦的東西。布拉德，如果你想壓制我，請阻止我，但我想說，這是一件悲傷的事情，但即使是痛苦也會推動重新洗牌和移動。

And so I think we're just -- we're setting up pretty in a pretty kind of volume bullish way across the whole of the industry for at least this year is my best guess. Yes. Is that okay, Brad?

所以我認為我們只是 - 至少在今年，我們正在以一種相當看漲的方式在整個行業中建立相當數量的看漲方式，這是我最好的猜測。是的。可以嗎，布萊德？

Yes, you're good. I'm ready to wrap.

是的，你很好。我準備好包起來了。

Okay. All right, wrap. Okay. I guess, thank you. Thanks, everybody, today. That will be it for this quarter.

好的。好吧，包起來。好的。我想，謝謝。謝謝大家，今天。本季就是這樣。

2020, we won't soon forget it, but it was a roller coaster. And -- but it was a year of immense progress for our organization, both culturally, but really as we kind of stitch together, on behalf of consumers, a new and better way to buy and sell a home, to move. Anyway, talk to everybody soon.

2020年，我們不會很快忘記，但它就像過山車一樣。而且，對於我們的組織來說，這是取得巨大進步的一年，無論是在文化上，還是實際上，我們代表消費者將一種新的、更好的房屋買賣和搬家方式縫合在一起。不管怎樣，先跟大家聊聊吧。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。