Zillow Group Inc (Z) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Zillow Group Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Zillow 集團 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。

Please note, this event is being recorded.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dawn Lyon, Chief Corporate Relations Officer and acting Head of Investor Relations.

我現在將會議交給首席企業關係長兼投資人關係代理主管 Dawn Lyon。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Amy.

謝謝你，艾米。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Zillow Group's Third Quarter 2019 Conference Call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2019 年第三季電話會議。

For those on the call I have not yet met, I look forward to doing so soon.

對於那些我尚未見過的電話會議的人，我期待著盡快見面。

Joining me today to discuss our Q3 results are Zillow Group's Co-Founder and CEO, Rich Barton; and CFO, Allen Parker.

今天與我一起討論我們第三季業績的是 Zillow Group 聯合創始人兼執行長 Rich Barton；和財務長艾倫·帕克。

During the call, we'll make forward-looking statements about our future performance and operating plans based on current expectations and assumptions.

在電話會議期間，我們將根據當前的預期和假設對未來業績和營運計劃做出前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and we encourage you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings for additional information.

這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，我們鼓勵您考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的風險因素以獲取更多資訊。

We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events except as required by law.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。

This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible on our Investor Relations website.

這次電話會議正在網路上播出，並且可以在我們的投資者關係網站上存取。

A recording of the call will be available later today.

今天稍後將提供通話錄音。

During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, which we refer to as EBITDA.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA，我們稱之為 EBITDA。

We encourage you to read our shareholder letter and earnings release, which can be found on our IR site.

我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的股東信和收益報告，這些內容可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

They contain important information about our GAAP and non-GAAP results including reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures.

它們包含有關我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果的重要信息，包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調整。

In addition, please note we refer to our Internet, Media & Technology segment as IMT segment.

此外，請注意，我們將互聯網、媒體和技術部門稱為 IMT 部門。

We will open the call with brief remarks followed by live Q&A.

我們將以簡短的演講開始電話會議，然後進行現場問答。

I'll now turn the call over to Rich.

我現在將電話轉給 Rich。

Thanks, Dawn.

謝謝，黎明。

Hey, everyone.

嘿大家。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Our third quarter results were strong, demonstrating Zillow Group's business model expansion to mechanize real estate transactions is gaining traction as consumer demand reveals people want an easier way to buy, sell, rent and finance homes, what we call Zillow 2.0.

我們第三季的業績表現強勁，這表明Zillow Group 為機械化房地產交易而進行的業務模式擴張正在獲得牽引力，因為消費者需求表明人們希望以更簡單的方式購買、出售、租賃和融資房屋，即我們所說的Zillow 2.0。

Our vision is to create an integrated real estate experience that combines advanced technology with high touch services into a single platform to remove friction and one day, make moving between homes as simple as trading in your car.

我們的願景是創造一種綜合的房地產體驗，將先進技術與高接觸服務結合到一個平台中，以消除摩擦，有一天，讓房屋之間的移動像汽車交易一樣簡單。

Today's on-demand consumers are ready for this new frontier in real estate and they want to work with Zillow, a brand they know and trust, and an app they already use and love.

當今的按需消費者已準備好迎接房地產的這一新領域，他們希望與 Zillow 合作，這是他們了解和信任的品牌，也是他們已經使用和喜愛的應用程式。

We are in the early stages of replatforming an industry with a $1.8 trillion TAM.

我們正處於對 TAM 達 1.8 兆美元的產業進行平台重組的早期階段。

We have a strong cash position, having recently raised $1.2 billion through our convertible debt offering.

我們擁有強大的現金狀況，最近透過可轉換債券發行籌集了 12 億美元。

And just 2 weeks ago, we closed on an additional $500 million nonrecourse credit facility to support growth in our Zillow Offers business.

就在兩週前，我們又獲得了 5 億美元的無追索權信貸額度，以支持 Zillow Offers 業務的成長。

Before I get into this quarter's highlights, I want to pause a moment and rewind.

在介紹本季的亮點之前，我想暫停一下並倒帶。

We received feedback that many of you would like more clarity on our Premier Agent business model, specifically as it relates to the impacts of our Flex tests.

我們收到的回饋表明，你們中的許多人希望更清楚地了解我們的 Premier Agent 業務模型，特別是因為它與我們的 Flex 測試的影響有關。

To clarify, the success measures for our Premier Agent business remain the same.

需要澄清的是，我們的高級代理業務的成功衡量標準保持不變。

Regardless of monetization model, we maximize for customer satisfaction, revenue and profit yield per lead.

無論採用何種獲利模式，我們都會最大限度地提高客戶滿意度、每條銷售線索的收入和利潤率。

To recap, during our Q2 call, we announced plans to announce our Flex test into Phoenix and Atlanta in Q4.

回顧一下，在第二季的電話會議中，我們宣布計劃在第四季度對鳳凰城和亞特蘭大進行 Flex 測試。

These plans affected our 2019 revenue and EBITDA outlook because we expect a portion of our prepaid lead generation revenue to shift to the future periods.

這些計劃影響了我們 2019 年的收入和 EBITDA 前景，因為我們預計部分預付費潛在客戶開發收入將轉移到未來時期。

In the Flex transaction model, we are paid a success fee only after an agent closes the deal.

在Flex交易模式中，只有在代理商完成交易後，我們才會獲得成功費用。

Because every real estate transaction is different and time lines can vary significantly from several weeks to several months, we are being methodical in our testing to better understand the financial implications of this postpaid pricing model.

由於每筆房地產交易都是不同的，而且時間線可能會有很大差異，從幾周到幾個月不等，因此我們正在有條不紊地進行測試，以更好地了解這種後付費定價模型的財務影響。

In total, our Flex tests, including Phoenix and Atlanta, are expected to represent only 5% of Premier Agent MRR as we exit 2019.

總的來說，到 2019 年結束時，我們的 Flex 測試（包括鳳凰城和亞特蘭大）預計僅佔 Premier Agent MRR 的 5%。

We fundamentally believe Flex will be a win-win-win.

我們從根本上相信偉創力將實現三贏。

It will offer better service for customers, better business for our partners and better profits for Zillow.

它將為客戶提供更好的服務，為合作夥伴提供更好的業務，為 Zillow 提供更好的利潤。

However, we will not expand Flex beyond the current announced 5% of MRR footprint until we have the data to convince us and you that Flex will ultimately become accretive to our bottom line.

然而，在我們有數據讓我們和您相信 Flex 最終會增加我們的利潤之前，我們不會將 Flex 的規模擴大到目前宣布的 5% 的 MRR 覆蓋範圍。

Having just talked about the boundaries of Flex, I'll zoom up one click and talk about our Premier Agent business, which reaccelerated this quarter.

剛剛討論了 Flex 的邊界，我將一鍵放大並討論我們的 Premier Agent 業務，該業務在本季度再次加速成長。

Revenue exceeded our outlook, coming in at $241 million, an increase of 3% year-over-year.

營收超出我們的預期，達到 2.41 億美元，年增 3%。

Excluding the impact of the 6 markets we are testing different iterations of Flex, Q3 Premier Agent revenue grew 5%, which you'll see reflected in the chart on Page 5 of the shareholder letter.

排除我們正在測試 Flex 不同版本的 6 個市場的影響，第三季 Premier Agent 收入成長了 5%，您將在股東信函第 5 頁的圖表中看到這一點。

This chart provides you with a same-store sales view of our MRR growth rates for our market-based pricing model, which reveals accelerating growth rates in this core business.

此圖表為您提供了我們基於市場的定價模型的 MRR 成長率的同店銷售視圖，揭示了這項核心業務的加速成長。

We expect same-store sales growth to continue to accelerate in Q4, which has prompted us to raise Q4 and full year revenue outlook for Premier Agent.

我們預計第四季度同店銷售成長將持續加速，這促使我們上調了 Premier Agent 第四季和全年營收預期。

As a reminder, it's the size and strength of Premier Agent and other marketplaces in our IMT segment that allow us to invest in and expand Zillow Offers and other transaction businesses so quickly.

需要提醒的是，Premier Agent 和 IMT 領域其他市場的規模和實力使我們能夠如此迅速地投資和擴展 Zillow Offers 和其他交易業務。

The combination of these highly complementary businesses provides Zillow Group distinct competitive advantages.

這些高度互補的業務組合為Zillow Group提供了獨特的競爭優勢。

Said another way, the success of Premier Agent and IMT is fundamental to the success of Zillow 2.0.

換句話說，Premier Agent 和 IMT 的成功是 Zillow 2.0 成功的基礎。

This was reinforced in our Q3 as increased operating leverage and agent retention levels contributed to expanding IMT EBITDA margins that we are able to reinvest in Zillow 2.0.

這一點在第三季度得到了加強，因為營運槓桿和代理商保留水準的提高有助於擴大 IMT EBITDA 利潤率，我們能夠將其再投資於 Zillow 2.0。

The future of Premier Agent is dependent on strong and constructive partnerships with the best of the best agents and teams.

Premier Agent 的未來取決於與最優秀的經紀人和團隊之間的強大和建設性的合作關係。

Last week, our team hosted Zillow Unlock, our largest industry conference to date, in which we invited the top premier agents, rental property managers and homebuilders to Las Vegas to share our future vision.

上週，我們的團隊舉辦了 Zillow Unlock，這是我們迄今為止規模最大的行業會議，我們邀請了頂級代理商、租賃物業經理和住宅建築商來到拉斯維加斯分享我們的未來願景。

This included 1,500 of our top premier agents with whom we discussed the importance of working together as our co-pilots to help navigate and lead Zillow 2.0.

其中包括我們的 1,500 名頂級代理商，我們與他們討論了作為副駕駛共同努力幫助導航和領導 Zillow 2.0 的重要性。

We believe strong partnerships with top professionals who are supported by modern technology and offer highly personalized services are the key to unlocking the full potential of this evolving category.

我們相信，與受現代技術支援並提供高度個人化服務的頂尖專業人士建立牢固的合作夥伴關係是釋放這一不斷發展的類別的全部潛力的關鍵。

The positive reception and high engagement from our partners reinforces for me that we are onto something.

我們合作夥伴的積極接待和高度參與讓我更加確信我們正在做一些事情。

It's not just consumers who are ready for Zillow 2.0.

準備好迎接 Zillow 2.0 的不僅是消費者。

The industry is ready as well.

業界也已做好準備。

Turning to Homes.

轉向家園。

The third quarter marks the first time Homes segment revenue exceeded our IMT revenue, coming in at $385 million, ahead of our outlook and up from just $11 million in the third quarter of 2018.

第三季住宅部門收入首次超過我們的 IMT 收入，達到 3.85 億美元，高於我們的預期，而 2018 年第三季僅為 1,100 萬美元。

During the quarter, we purchased nearly 2,300 homes and sold more than 1,200 homes.

本季度，我們購買了近 2,300 套房屋並出售了 1,200 多套房屋。

In just 18 months, Zillow Offers is live in 21 markets.

在短短 18 個月內，Zillow Offers 已在 21 個市場上線。

We launched a record 8 markets in the quarter, one about every 2 weeks.

我們在本季創紀錄地推出了 8 個市場，大約每兩週推出一個市場。

Our Zillow Offers team has delivered ahead of schedule on a remarkable growth pace, and we are now getting close to a national footprint, which has been an early goal for us in order to drive national marketing efficiency.

我們的 Zillow Offers 團隊以驚人的成長速度提前交付了成果，我們現在正接近覆蓋全國，這是我們提高全國行銷效率的早期目標。

Our unit economics for Q3 came in within our targeted range, which, as we previously discussed, is plus or minus 200 basis points average return per home before interest expense.

我們第三季的單位經濟效益處於我們的目標範圍內，正如我們之前討論的那樣，每套住房在利息支出之前的平均回報率正負 200 個基點。

At scale, we are targeting 400 to 500 basis points, and we also see profit opportunity from adding adjacent services to the transaction.

在規模上，我們的目標是 400 到 500 個基點，我們還看到透過在交易中添加相鄰服務來獲利的機會。

And speaking of adjacent services, Zillow's new homegrown closing service is also now live in a handful of markets.

說到鄰近服務，Zillow 的新本土結算服務現已在少數市場推出。

These are very early days and small numbers, but we are encouraged by the early consumer signals we're receiving that reinforce the value of bundling multiple services around each real estate transaction.

雖然現在還處於早期階段，而且數量還很少，但我們收到的早期消費者訊號令我們感到鼓舞，這些訊號強化了圍繞每筆房地產交易捆綁多種服務的價值。

To wrap on our Homes segment and Zillow Offers, I'd like to highlight that this kind of growth from a standing start may not be unique but it is certainly rare, and was our hope to not just get -- and it was our hope to not just get on the field in this big, exciting consumer category but to become the team to beat.

總結一下我們的Homes 細分市場和Zillow Offers，我想強調的是，這種從一開始就實現的成長可能不是獨一無二的，但它肯定是罕見的，而且我們希望不僅能獲得——而且是我們的希望不僅要在這個龐大而令人興奮的消費類別中脫穎而出，還要成為要擊敗的團隊。

And doing so within our profit rails is even more impressive.

在我們的利潤範圍內這樣做更令人印象深刻。

Few teams can pull off that kind of new business entry so quickly, and it took the whole of the Zillow Group team to make this happen.

很少有團隊能夠如此迅速地實現這種新業務的進入，Zillow Group 團隊的全體成員共同努力才實現了這一目標。

And I want to thank and applaud them.

我要感謝他們並為他們鼓掌。

The company is now in a much more secure strategic position for the long term and has a much larger market opportunity as a result.

從長遠來看，該公司現在處於更安全的戰略地位，因此擁有更大的市場機會。

Another essential piece of the integrated transaction is Mortgages, which delivered as expected in Q3.

整合交易的另一個重要部分是抵押貸款，該交易在第三季按預期交付。

In the third quarter, we welcomed seasoned executives with deep experience building, scaling and running consumer direct lending businesses.

第三季度，我們迎來了經驗豐富的高階主管，他們在建立、擴展和經營消費者直接貸款業務方面擁有豐富的經驗。

Rian Furey joined as President of Zillow Home Loans.

Rian Furey 加入 Zillow Home Loans 擔任總裁。

And Libby Cooper joined as VP of Operations.

Libby Cooper 加入擔任營運副總裁。

Combined, these 2 have more than 40 years of experience.

兩人合計擁有超過 40 年的經驗。

We are thrilled to have them on board to build out our home financing platform.

我們很高興他們能加入我們的家庭融資平台。

Recent positive feedback from our customers demonstrates the substantial value that Zillow 2.0 provides when we begin to offer and streamline all aspects of the transaction.

我們客戶最近的正面回饋表明，當我們開始提供和簡化交易的各個方面時，Zillow 2.0 所提供的巨大價值。

Take Tim, a retired U.S. Marine who lived in Riverside, California and got a job offer in Phoenix.

以提姆為例，他是一位退休的美國海軍陸戰隊員，住在加州里弗賽德，並在鳳凰城找到了工作機會。

As he was checking his Zestimate on Zillow this summer in anticipation he might sell, he saw a button on his home details page that invited him to request an offer from Zillow Offers to purchase his home.

今年夏天，當他在 Zillow 上查看他的 Zestimate 並預計他可能會出售時，他在房屋詳細資料頁面上看到了一個按鈕，邀請他向 Zillow Offers 請求報價以購買他的房屋。

He clicked.

他點擊了。

And in 48 hours, he received an offer that he believed was fair from a brand he trusts.

48 小時內，他收到了來自他信任的品牌的一份他認為公平的報價。

He went through the process and after 6 days, accepted the offer and went on to start the process of finding a new home in Phoenix.

他完成了整個流程，六天后接受了報價，並開始在鳳凰城尋找新家。

He was referred to a Zillow Premier Agent who helped him find his new home at the same time he was preapproved for a loan through Zillow Home Loans.

他被推薦給一位 Zillow Premier 經紀人，後者幫助他找到了新家，同時他透過 Zillow Home Loans 獲得了貸款預先批准。

You will find a link to his video interview on Page 7 in our letter.

您可以在我們信函的第 7 頁找到他的視訊訪談連結。

Stories like Tim's are our inspiration and give us the opportunity to see the real potential of the business we're building.

像蒂姆這樣的故事是我們的靈感，讓我們有機會看到我們正在建立的業務的真正潛力。

It's gratifying to watch our plan to help people unlock life's next chapter come together.

很高興看到我們幫助人們開啟人生新篇章的計畫走到了一起。

We have a long way to go to fully realize our vision.

要完全實現我們的願景，我們還有很長的路要走。

But the possibilities of bundled real estate transaction experience through a one-stop Zillow platform that helps people save time, money and hassle are clear.

但透過一站式 Zillow 平台捆綁房地產交易體驗的可能性是顯而易見的，它可以幫助人們節省時間、金錢和麻煩。

Real estate broadly defined is a huge industry that has been impressively resistant to technological advance.

廣義的房地產是一個巨大的行業，但它對技術進步的抵制令人印象深刻。

The Internet, connected to a PC at first, and now billions of smart devices, has given power to the people and transformed industry after industry, many of which I have been lucky enough to have had a part in.

最初連接個人電腦的互聯網，現在連接數十億智慧型設備，為人們賦予了力量，並改變了一個又一個行業，我有幸參與了其中許多行業。

Consumer expectation for speed, convenience and price is at a historical high and is accelerating at what seems at times a nauseating pace.

消費者對速度、便利性和價格的期望正處於歷史高位，並且正在以有時令人作嘔的速度加速。

Modernizing and replatforming this massive industry will take time and investment, but it is inevitable.

對這個龐大的產業進行現代化改造和平台重組需要時間和投資，但這是不可避免的。

And we have the brand, traffic, skills and the capital to lead this phase shift.

我們擁有引領此階段轉變的品牌、流量、技能和資本。

This is why the Zillow team and I are here and so fired up.

這就是我和 Zillow 團隊來到這裡並如此興奮的原因。

We balance our excitement with long, multicompany demonstrated experience building profitable businesses, the most obvious example being our IMT businesses right here inside of Zillow Group where we are showing profits and demonstrating leverage.

我們平衡了我們的興奮與長期、多家公司展示的建立盈利業務的經驗，最明顯的例子是我們在 Zillow Group 內部的 IMT 業務，我們在其中展示了利潤和槓桿作用。

Allen, the rest of the team and I treat the investment you have made in us with respect and care.

艾倫、團隊的其他成員和我對你們對我們所做的投資表示尊重和關心。

We are meaningful shareholders as well.

我們也是有意義的股東。

Thank you for your partnership.

感謝您的合作。

I'll now turn the call over to Allen to walk us through the results in greater detail.

我現在將把電話轉給艾倫，讓我們更詳細地了解結果。

Thank you, Rich.

謝謝你，里奇。

I'm going to quickly summarize a few key financial results.

我將快速總結一些關鍵的財務表現。

Overall, we exceeded our revenue and EBITDA expectations for all segments.

總體而言，我們所有細分市場的收入和 EBITDA 都超出了預期。

In Q3, we reported revenue of $745 million.

第三季度，我們報告收入為 7.45 億美元。

That's up 117% year-over-year and exceeded the high end of our outlook.

年比成長 117%，超出了我們預期的上限。

Much of this growth in revenue was driven by our Homes segment, which generated revenue of nearly $385 million, growing 55% sequentially, and as Rich noted, is continuing to outperform expectations.

收入的成長大部分是由我們的住宅部門推動的，該部門產生了近 3.85 億美元的收入，比上一季度增長了 55%，而且正如 Rich 指出的那樣，該部門的表現繼續超出預期。

IMT segment revenue grew 7% year-over-year to $335 million and exceeded our outlook.

IMT 部門營收年增 7%，達到 3.35 億美元，超出了我們的預期。

Premier Agent revenue exceeded our expectations at nearly $241 million, up 3% year-over-year.

Premier Agent 營收超出我們的預期，達到近 2.41 億美元，年增 3%。

As Rich noted, we are pleased with the stabilization and recovery in the Premier Agent business.

正如里奇所指出的，我們對高級代理業務的穩定和復甦感到高興。

As we highlighted in our shareholder letter, growth in our core Premier Agent market-based pricing business on a same-store sales basis was up 5% in Q3.

正如我們在股東信中所強調的那樣，我們的核心 Premier Agent 基於市場的定價業務（按同店銷售計算）在第三季度增長了 5%。

And we expect this year-over-year growth to accelerate in Q4.

我們預計第四季同比成長將加速。

As we stabilize Premier Agent retention, we have been focused on managing costs and driving increased profitability, primarily in our IMT segment.

在穩定高階代理保留率的同時，我們一直專注於管理成本和提高獲利能力，主要是在 IMT 領域。

To that end, I am pleased to report that for the 9 months ending September 30, we expanded IMT EBITDA margin by 240 basis points and grew IMT EBITDA by 19% year-over-year.

為此，我很高興地報告，在截至 9 月 30 日的 9 個月中，我們的 IMT EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 240 個基點，IMT EBITDA 同比增長了 19%。

As I've stated in previous earnings calls, during this time of transformation at Zillow Group, my priorities as CFO are focused on establishing processes and mechanisms in support of the following: scaling our new businesses; executing within our IMT segment in order to fund investments into new segments along with additional growth opportunities; and implementing focused cost discipline and operational rigor across the company as we scale.

正如我在先前的財報電話會議中所說，在 Zillow Group 的轉型時期，我作為財務長的首要任務是建立支持以下目標的流程和機制：擴大我們的新業務；在我們的 IMT 部門內執行，以便為新部門的投資以及額外的成長機會提供資金；隨著規模的擴大，在整個公司範圍內實施集中的成本紀律和嚴格的營運。

I am pleased with how we have executed on those 3 priorities through the first 3 quarters in 2019, and I will continue to be laser focused on them as we continue our business transformation.

我對 2019 年前 3 季度我們在這 3 個優先事項上的執行情況感到滿意，並且在我們繼續進行業務轉型時，我將繼續專注於它們。

We ended the quarter with $2.3 billion of cash and short-term investments on our balance sheet, including the proceeds we raised in our recent $1.2 billion convertible debt offering.

截至本季末，我們的資產負債表上有 23 億美元的現金和短期投資，其中包括我們最近發行 12 億美元的可轉換債券所籌集的資金。

In addition to the cash and investments on our balance sheet, we are pleased to announce that in October, we completed our third nonrecourse asset-backed credit facility for our Zillow Offers business.

除了資產負債表上的現金和投資外，我們很高興地宣布，10 月份，我們完成了 Zillow Offers 業務的第三筆無追索權資產支持信貸安排。

This new facility has a maximum borrowing capacity of $500 million, which combined with our 2 other Zillow Offers facilities, brings our total nonrecourse asset-backed facility maximum borrowing capacity to $1.5 billion.

這項新貸款的最大借款能力為 5 億美元，與我們另外 2 項 Zillow Offers 貸款相結合，使我們的無追索權資產支持貸款總額達到 15 億美元。

As a reminder, these facilities provide us the ability to finance up to 85% of the home value using each home as collateral.

提醒一下，這些設施使我們能夠使用每套房屋作為抵押品，為高達 85% 的房屋價值提供融資。

We believe the amount of cash and investments on our balance sheet, combined with our asset-backed credit facilities, provides us significant flexibility to take advantage of market opportunities while prudently managing expenses, gaining operating leverage and being mindful of our weighted average cost of capital.

我們相信，資產負債表上的現金和投資金額，加上我們的資產支持信貸額度，為我們提供了巨大的靈活性，可以利用市場機會，同時審慎管理費用，獲得營運槓桿並注意我們的加權平均資本成本。

Before we take your questions, I want to take a moment to provide some comments on our outlook.

在回答您的問題之前，我想花點時間對我們的前景發表一些評論。

Due to the underlying strength of Premier Agent, we are updating our IMT and Premier Agent full year revenue guidance ranges.

由於 Premier Agent 的潛在實力，我們正在更新 IMT 和 Premier Agent 全年收入指引範圍。

For IMT, we expect revenue growth of 6% at the midpoint, and we're bringing up Premier Agent full year outlook to between $915 million and $919 million, which represents 2% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

對於 IMT，我們預期營收中位數成長 6%，並將 Premier Agent 全年預期上調至 9.15 億美元至 9.19 億美元之間，即中位數年增 2%。

For Q4, we expect IMT revenue growth of 4% and Premier Agent revenue growth of 3% of the midpoint.

對於第四季度，我們預計 IMT 營收將成長為 4%，Premier Agent 營收成長為 3%（中位數）。

We are also bringing up the full year outlook of IMT segment EBITDA to between $284 million and $289 million.

我們也將 IMT 部門 EBITDA 的全年預期上調至 2.84 億美元至 2.89 億美元之間。

The consumer demand for Zillow Offers service continues to be strong.

消費者對 Zillow Offers 服務的需求持續強勁。

We're anticipating Q4 Homes segment revenue to grow to $465 million to $490 million or 24% sequentially at the midpoint of the range, which reflects the sequential uplift from new market openings, partially offset by seasonal slowing in our home acquisition rate, consistent with seasonal market trends.

我們預計第四季度住宅業務收入將連續增長至4.65 億美元至4.9 億美元，即該區間中點的24%，這反映了新市場開放帶來的連續增長，但部分被我們的房屋收購率季節性放緩所抵消，與季節性市場趨勢。

This brings our full year revenue estimate for Homes to $1.23 billion to $1.25 billion.

這使得我們對 Homes 的全年收入預計將達到 12.3 億美元至 12.5 億美元。

We are also tightening the range of full year Mortgages revenue to between $97 million and $100 million.

我們也將全年抵押貸款收入範圍收緊至 9,700 萬美元至 1 億美元之間。

On a consolidated basis, we expect full year revenue to be in the range of $2.59 billion to $2.62 billion, and we expect full year consolidated EBITDA to come in between a loss of $1 million to income of $17 million.

在合併基礎上，我們預計全年營收將在 25.9 億美元至 26.2 億美元之間，我們預計全年合併 EBITDA 將在虧損 100 萬美元至收入 1,700 萬美元之間。

In all, we are pleased with our Q3 performance and continued execution to streamline real estate transactions to better help our customers move easily.

總而言之，我們對第三季的業績以及簡化房地產交易以更好地幫助我們的客戶輕鬆出行的持續執行感到滿意。

With that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

接線員，我們將開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Brad Berning at Craig-Hallum.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Brad Berning。

Congrats on the inflection point in the Premier Agent revenues and the margins.

祝賀高級代理收入和利潤的拐點。

And thank you for the same-store sales disclosure ex Flex.

感謝您揭露 Flex 的同店銷售情況。

But wanted to follow up a little bit deeper on your commentary here.

但想更深入地跟進你的評論。

Can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing as the drivers behind the improved activity and what trends you expect in the same-store sales basis that's included in the 4Q guidance?

您能否多談談您認為活動改善背後的驅動因素以及您對第四季度指導中包含的同店銷售基礎的預期趨勢？

And how are you thinking about early reads and how that's going to develop as we go into 2020?

您如何看待早期閱讀以及進入 2020 年時它將如何發展？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Brad.

謝謝，布拉德。

I'm looking at my watch right now and realizing that we read too fast, Allen.

我現在正在看手錶，意識到我們讀得太快了，艾倫。

And so maybe we're in for a lot of questions.

所以也許我們有很多問題。

So let's take a deep breath.

讓我們深吸一口氣。

Yes, I mean the PA business is really healthy.

是的，我的意思是 PA 業務非常健康。

As you noted, it's looking good.

正如您所指出的，它看起來不錯。

It's kind of a reacceleration of revenue.

這是收入的重新加速。

When we look at the same-store sales number that we're sharing right now, it's really comforting.

當我們查看現在分享的同店銷售數據時，真的很令人欣慰。

Not to mention the kind of EBITDA, the business leverage we're seeing in the IMT segment overall, which happens to coincide with about the time Allen has been here at the company.

更不用說 EBITDA 了，我們在整個 IMT 領域看到的業務槓桿，這恰好與艾倫在公司任職的時間相吻合。

But we're not only seeing revenue growth.

但我們不僅看到收入成長。

We're seeing leverage on the cost items, too.

我們也看到了成本項目的槓桿作用。

So that's all good.

所以這一切都很好。

I think the trends -- the inputs are what we try to focus on the most, Brad, the -- and these inputs are looking good.

我認為趨勢 - 投入是我們最關注的，布拉德 - 這些投入看起來不錯。

Customer satisfaction is up.

客戶滿意度上升。

Connection rate is up.

連接率上升。

Retention rate for PA customers is up.

PA 客戶的保留率上升。

So the MBP, the market-based pricing model for PA is working really nicely.

因此，基於市場的 PA 定價模型 MBP 運作得非常好。

We -- as we look forward into Q4, we expect continued improvement in these inputs.

展望第四季度，我們預計這些投入將持續改善。

And so that kind of is what's driving the Q4 guide.

這就是推動第四季指南的因素。

We're expecting to see more of that goodness.

我們期待看到更多這樣的美好事物。

Relative to next year, what we look forward to, to giving 2020 guidance next quarter.

相對於明年，我們期待的是下個季度給予 2020 年指引。

We're just not -- we're not ready to talk about it yet.

我們只是還沒準備好談論它。

But we look forward to chatting with you about it then.

但我們期待屆時與您討論此事。

I don't know if you have anything to add, Allen.

我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的，艾倫。

No, I think that's fair.

不，我認為這是公平的。

The next question is from Ron Josey at JMP Securities.

下一個問題來自 JMP 證券的 Ron Josey。

Maybe just a quick follow-up on that, Rich.

也許只是對此進行快速跟進，Rich。

Good to hear retention rate's up, marketplace pricing model was up.

很高興聽到保留率上升，市場定價模式上升。

So I'm curious, when we did take down guidance in 2Q and now we're coming back to potentially where we were, was this all a surprise or just plans along the way?

所以我很好奇，當我們確實在第二季度取消了指導，現在我們又回到了可能的水平時，這一切是一個驚喜還是只是一路上的計劃？

I guess you did it first question.

我猜你第一個問題就做到了。

You maybe sort of answered that with Brad but I just wanted to clarify.

你可能會用布拉德來回答這個問題，但我只是想澄清一下。

And then just on Flex really quickly.

然後很快就可以使用 Flex。

I appreciate the color and transparency, understanding no guidance into '20.

我欣賞它的顏色和透明度，理解沒有進入 20 的指導。

But when you're thinking about how long it takes to prove out these test markets, and understood the 5% or what have you, just can you give us a little more insight in terms of like what you've learned thus far so that at least we can think about the opportunity as we move to potentially this type of this model going forward?

但是，當您考慮需要多長時間才能證明這些測試市場，並了解 5% 或其他什麼時，您能否向我們提供更多有關您迄今為止所學到的知識的見解，以便至少我們可以考慮一下當我們未來可能轉向這種類型的模型時的機會？

Okay.

好的。

Ron, thanks.

羅恩，謝謝。

Maybe I think, Allen, take the first part.

也許我想，艾倫，先開始吧。

Ron, I'll take your first part of the question.

羅恩，我來回答你問題的第一部分。

Or maybe take a crack at the second one -- I'll take it.

或者也許嘗試第二個——我會接受的。

So the guidance we provided in our Q2 call reflected the impact of us making the decision to expand Flex testing to Phoenix and Atlanta.

因此，我們在第二季電話會議中提供的指導反映了我們決定將 Flex 測試擴展到菲尼克斯和亞特蘭大的影響。

When we look at Q3 performance and the guidance we're providing in this call, that change in guidance reflects improved Q3 performance that we saw in the business.

當我們查看第三季度的業績以及我們在本次電話會議中提供的指導時，指導的變化反映了我們在業務中看到的第三季度業績的改善。

Rich touched on some inputs.

里奇談到了一些意見。

We also saw improvement in our sales productivity.

我們也看到銷售效率的提升。

We touched on agent retention better than expected.

我們對座席保留率的討論比預期好。

So we saw several of those inputs trend better than expected.

因此，我們看到其中一些投入的趨勢比預期好。

And so our current Q4 and full year outlook for PA reflects the continuation of those trends.

因此，我們目前對 PA 的第四季和全年展望反映了這些趨勢的延續。

And again, I'd like to reiterate, Rich touched on it as well, what we're really excited about is while the input trends are working well, in our recurrent revenue business, when we come off of that recurrent revenue balance, we have to build it back up before we can start to see growth again.

我想再次重申，里奇也談到了這一點，我們真正感到興奮的是，在我們的經常性收入業務中，投入趨勢運行良好，當我們擺脫經常性收入平衡時，我們在我們能夠再次開始看到增長之前，必須將其重新建立。

As we did that this year, we were also able to focus on cost discipline, productivity and thoughtful resource prioritization, all of which are areas that I've discussed are a priority of mine.

正如我們今年所做的那樣，我們還能夠專注於成本紀律、生產力和深思熟慮的資源優先級，所有這些都是我討論過的優先領域。

And by building that muscle, we've been able to expand margins, which have allowed even with a 6% IMT growth rate in the first 9 months, we've seen 19% growth in EBITDA.

透過增強實力，我們已經能夠擴大利潤率，即使前 9 個月的 IMT 成長率為 6%，我們的 EBITDA 也實現了 19% 的成長。

Great.

偉大的。

And as to your Flex questions, I guess the headline is we are optimistic.

至於你提出的 Flex 問題，我想標題是我們很樂觀。

We continue to be optimistic that this can be a win-win-win, that it really feels good from a customer satisfaction perspective to lash our compensation to the completion of what the customer is trying to get done, that is close the transaction.

我們仍然樂觀地認為，這可以是雙贏的，從客戶滿意度的角度來看，將我們的補償與完成客戶想要完成的事情（即完成交易）聯繫起來確實感覺很好。

And that is clearly playing out.

這顯然正在上演。

It also is a much more attractive model for a certain kind of partner.

對於某些類型的合作夥伴來說，這也是一種更具吸引力的模式。

And we're getting a lot of positive feedback from the subset of our partners that are using Flex right now and other partners who are anxious to do that.

我們從目前正在使用 Flex 的合作夥伴以及其他渴望這樣做的合作夥伴那裡得到了很多正面的回饋。

And then we continue to be optimistic that we can derive more revenue and more profit from the same lead flow through this model.

然後我們繼續樂觀地認為，透過這種模式，我們可以從相同的潛在客戶流中獲得更多的收入和更多的利潤。

This is all being tested, however.

然而，這一切都正在測試中。

The time horizon for figuring out exactly how this is going to play out is a little bit -- is painfully long, I understand.

我理解，要弄清楚這到底會如何發展，時間跨度有點長——非常長。

It will take some time.

這需要一些時間。

For instance, we've announced 6 markets that we're testing Flex in.

例如，我們已經宣佈在 6 個市場中測試 Flex。

And again, those 6 markets represent only 5% of our MRR.

再說一遍，這 6 個市場僅占我們 MRR 的 5%。

One of those markets, Atlanta, we haven't even launched yet.

其中一個市場，亞特蘭大，我們還沒有推出。

We'll launch in next month -- next week.

我們將在下個月——下週推出。

Next week.

下週。

Next week, okay.

下週，好吧。

So we launch Atlanta next week.

所以我們下週推出亞特蘭大。

And in Atlanta, we won't have -- it's not like we'll have all the data.

在亞特蘭大，我們不會擁有—我們不會擁有所有數據。

Even the front-end, even kind of the starting gun of the transaction, it won't all happen at once.

即使是前端，即使是交易的發令槍，也不會同時發生。

It will play out over time.

隨著時間的推移，它會發揮作用。

And it takes transactions from several weeks at the very short end to several months at the long end.

交易時間從短期的幾週到長期的幾個月不等。

And we need enough data -- we need to collect enough data to kind of prove out our theory.

我們需要足夠的數據——我們需要收集足夠的數據來證明我們的理論。

I do -- as I said on the call, this is a -- we continually innovate on business model in Premier Agent.

正如我在電話中所說，我們在 Premier Agent 中不斷創新業務模式。

And this is a really interesting innovation that we are testing.

這是我們正在測試的一項非常有趣的創新。

And finally, I guess I'd say while we are doing this, while we are innovating in these Flex test markets, our core business, the core MBP business is sound and reaccelerating and growing.

最後，我想我想說，當我們這樣做時，當我們在這些 Flex 測試市場進行創新時，我們的核心業務、核心 MBP 業務是健全的，並且正在重新加速和成長。

And so that's pretty excellent, too.

所以這也非常好。

The next question is from Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬克‧馬哈尼。

This is Mike Chen on for Mark.

我是馬克陳 (Mike Chen)。

Just on Zillow Offers, you expanded to 8 new markets this quarter.

僅在 Zillow Offers 上，您本季就擴展到了 8 個新市場。

I think that's the most you've ever done.

我想這是你做過的最多的事了。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the pace of your market expansion going into and throughout 2020.

我想知道您是否可以談談 2020 年及整個 2020 年市場擴張的步伐。

And then you also saw nicely improved Homes EBITDA margin year-over-year and sequentially.

然後，您還可以看到房屋 EBITDA 利潤率逐年並連續改善。

But how should we think about the path to profitability and for losses to improve in an absolute basis for that business segment?

但是，我們該如何考慮該業務部門的獲利和虧損絕對改善之路呢？

Okay.

好的。

Mike, I'll take a crack.

麥克，我來嚐嚐。

And Allen, pile on especially for the second half, if you want.

如果你願意的話，艾倫，尤其​​是在下半場。

I said it in my scripted part, but it's pretty remarkable how quickly this business, the Zillow Offers business, has grown.

我在腳本部分說過，但 Zillow Offers 業務的成長速度非常驚人。

Of course, it is being driven by a really strong consumer signal with frustrated homeowners who want to move, saying they want a better way, okay?

當然，這是由真正強烈的消費者訊號推動的，那些想要搬家的沮喪的房主說他們想要更好的方式，好嗎？

But growing from $11 million in revenue in this line item last year to $385 million this quarter is pretty fantastic.

但從去年該訂單項的收入 1,100 萬美元增長到本季的 3.85 億美元，這是相當驚人的。

Getting to national footprint was one of our early goals, getting to effectively national footprint.

實現全國足跡是我們的早期目標之一，即有效地實現全國足跡。

And we're pretty close.

我們非常接近。

I think we are at -- I think I said we are at 21 markets right now.

我認為我們現在處於 21 個市場。

We're about to launch the greater Los Angeles area next month.

我們即將在下個月推出大洛杉磯地區。

So it will be 22.

所以它將是22。

I think historically, we've said and reinforced it, by mid next year, we'll be in 26 markets.

我認為從歷史上看，我們已經說過並強化了這一點，到明年年中，我們將進入 26 個市場。

But kind of Phase 1 of rapid scaling of Zillow Offers has been about planting flags in many markets and going broad, getting the word out, getting data for the machine -- learning machine input so that we can make better and better offers.

但 Zillow Offers 快速擴展的第一階段是在許多市場插旗並擴大範圍，傳播訊息，為機器獲取數據 - 學習機器輸入，以便我們能夠提供越來越好的報價。

Phase 1 has been about going broad.

第一階段的目標是擴大範圍。

And we're moving into a Phase 2, which is getting some depth in these markets and figuring out how to roll out software and systems and processes such that we can gain leverage on the cost -- on the unit economic cost line items.

我們正在進入第二階段，該階段正在對這些市場進行一定程度的深入，並弄清楚如何推出軟體、系統和流程，以便我們能夠在單位經濟成本項目上獲得成本槓桿。

And because the goal long term in this business is not to lose money on Zillow Offers and just make money on all the adjacent products, we are aiming to have the core Zillow Offers business make money in it of itself and make -- and do very well and then also give us all kinds of fantastic optionality on these myriad of verticals that surround the house transaction.

由於該業務的長期目標不是在 Zillow Offers 上虧錢，而只是在所有相鄰產品上賺錢，因此我們的目標是讓核心 Zillow Offers 業務本身賺錢，並且做得非常好。好吧，然後還為我們提供了圍繞房屋交易的無數垂直領域的各種奇妙的選擇。

I don't know if I covered the whole question.

我不知道我是否涵蓋了整個問題。

Homes, EBITDA, I mean I kind of hit some of it.

房屋、EBITDA，我的意思是我已經達到了其中的一些。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

And I would just add to Rich's point.

我只想補充里奇的觀點。

It is pretty incredible, the performance we've gotten at the pace of scale.

我們以規模化的速度獲得的性能非常令人難以置信。

We've continued to execute within our target ranges on profitability for home, which we share.

我們繼續在我們分享的家庭獲利目標範圍內執行。

Which is kind of a surprise, honestly.

老實說，這有點令人驚訝。

Yes.

是的。

And so as we think to the future, I still come back to the customer signal that we're getting is extremely strong, which gives us a lot of excitement.

因此，當我們思考未來時，我仍然回到客戶訊號，我們收到的訊號非常強烈，這讓我們非常興奮。

But we also plan to be prudent and make sure we understand where there's opportunities to make investment and where we need to test a little more before we go big.

但我們也計劃保持謹慎，確保我們了解哪裡有投資機會，以及在我們做大之前我們需要在哪裡進行更多測試。

And so I think we're in a really good place.

所以我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置。

I think we're best positioned to win.

我認為我們最有可能獲勝。

I've been really excited in this last -- it's only been 9 months, almost a year, I guess, watching this team go after this.

我對這最後的事情感到非常興奮——我猜，只花了 9 個月，差不多一年了，看著這支球隊追求這一目標。

And I think we're in a good place going forward.

我認為我們的未來發展勢頭良好。

The next question is from Tom Champion at Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Tom Champion。

Allen, you've talked about Zillow's progress in building skills around cost control.

Allen，您談到了 Zillow 在圍繞成本控制培養技能方面取得的進展。

And it was a very encouraging result in EBITDA in IMT.

IMT 的 EBITDA 取得了非常令人鼓舞的結果。

And I'm just curious if you could talk through that, if there were any cost items that helped the result, anything onetime in nature.

我只是很好奇你是否能談談這個問題，是否有任何成本項目有助於結果，任何一次性的東西。

And then maybe a question for Rich.

然後也許有一個問題要問里奇。

I'm just curious if you could qualitatively describe what you're seeing in the older offers market.

我只是好奇您是否可以定性地描述您在舊優惠市場中看到的情況。

And in particular, curious the feedback you're getting from agents tasked with introducing a Zillow Offer to customers that maybe those customers ultimately choose a standard market transaction.

特別是，您從負責向客戶介紹 Zillow Offer 的代理商那裡得到的回饋感到好奇，也許這些客戶最終會選擇標準市場交易。

Just any thoughts on that would be really helpful.

對此的任何想法都會非常有幫助。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

So Tom, the savings or the productivity and margin expansion that we're seeing are coming from a wide range of places with respect to IMT.

Tom，我們看到的節省或生產力和利潤成長來自於 IMT 的各個方面。

What I'd say is we're establishing just a little more rigor around how we measure, how we think about incremental investments, how we measure productivity and how we ensure that we're kind of maximizing every dollar spent to get the maximized return.

我想說的是，我們正在圍繞如何衡量、如何看待增量投資、如何衡量生產力以及如何確保最大限度地利用每一美元來獲得最大化回報，建立更嚴格的標準。

And that is paying some yields.

這正在支付一些收益。

The specific areas of leverage that you see year-over-year in that 9 months are around better leverage on some of our sales and marketing dollars.

在這 9 個月中，您看到的具體槓桿領域與去年同期相比，是對我們的一些銷售和行銷資金的更好槓桿作用。

We've seen better leverage on some of our head count.

我們發現我們的一些員工得到了更好的利用。

And that head count includes people cost.

這個人數包括人員成本。

That includes a lot of discretionary spend that we are constantly looking at, T&E and other spend that we're looking at and finding real savings year-over-year through 3 key levers.

這包括我們不斷關注的大量可自由支配支出、差旅費和其他支出，我們正在關注並透過 3 個關鍵槓桿逐年尋找真正的節省。

We are either negotiating more aggressively with vendors.

我們要么與供應商進行更積極的談判。

We are clarifying and basically holding to compliance against our policies.

我們正在澄清並基本上堅持遵守我們的政策。

And we're looking at demand management.

我們正在研究需求管理。

It's those 3 simple levers across a variety of spend categories that we put in place and we have discussions about that are starting to yield some improvements.

我們在各種支出類別中採用了這 3 個簡單的槓桿，並且我們對此進行了討論，並開始產生一些改進。

We expect that to continue, and that can either fund investments or can drop to the bottom line.

我們預計這種情況將持續下去，這要么可以為投資提供資金，要么可以下降到利潤。

But we're excited about the progress.

但我們對進展感到興奮。

Tom, as to your second part of your question, there aren't any older Zillow Offers markets.

Tom，關於您問題的第二部分，不存在任何較舊的 Zillow Offers 市場。

Really, our oldest markets are, I don't know, 15 months old.

確實，我們最古老的市場，我不知道，已經 15 個月了。

So they're quite -- so they're still quite young.

所以他們還很年輕。

And trying to draw any kind of maturity conclusions from them, it's just -- it is just premature.

試圖從他們身上得出任何成熟的結論，只是──這還為時過早。

I'm very happy with the way we're executing in these markets within the guardrails we've laid out.

我對我們在這些市場中在我們設定的範圍內執行的方式感到非常滿意。

And the amount of data coming in from these markets and the amount of learning that's happening is really -- it's impressive and rapid.

來自這些市場的數據量和正在發生的學習量確實令人印象深刻且迅速。

As to taking advantage of the kind of adjacent lead opportunities and adjacent vertical market opportunities as a result of being able to present all these offers to people and then actually having these listings, the currency of the realm in the real estate industry is listings.

至於利用相鄰的領先機會和相鄰的垂直市場機會，因為能夠向人們展示所有這些報價，然後實際擁有這些房源，房地產行業領域的貨幣就是房源。

And we have all these listings now.

我們現在有所有這些清單。

We have -- how many homes do we have listings on right now?

我們現在有多少房屋掛牌出售？

Over -- we have 2,800 homes in inventory right now, 2,822 homes in inventory.

目前，我們有 2,800 套房屋庫存，還有 2,822 套房屋庫存。

Not all of those are in the market yet but a good chunk of them are.

並非所有這些產品都已上市，但其中很大一部分已經上市。

And the commission lead opportunities that kind of -- all the lead opportunities that come from having these golden listings is also pretty impressive.

此類佣金領先機會——所有來自這些黃金上市的領先機會也相當令人印象深刻。

I would say it's very early days with us monetizing all of that.

我想說，我們將所有這些貨幣化還為時過早。

We've had more success with -- early success with some things than others.

我們在某些​​事情上取得了比其他事情更多的早期成功。

We've talked a little bit about Zillow Closing Services, which includes title that we are just beginning to test with.

我們已經討論了一些有關 Zillow Closing Services 的內容，其中包括我們剛開始測試的標題。

That's small.

那很小。

We're also testing with Zillow Home Loans.

我們也正在測試 Zillow Home Loans。

It's just begun to actually be integrated in certain test markets so that we can see what the attach rates are.

它剛開始真正融入某些測試市場，以便我們可以了解附加費率是多少。

We're also playing around with seller and buyer leads that can result from these offer presentations, and that's -- we're figuring that out.

我們也正在研究這些報價演示中可能產生的賣家和買家線索，我們正在解決這個問題。

We remain, long term, very confident and optimistic that there is a ton of opportunity in these adjacencies.

從長遠來看，我們仍然非常有信心和樂觀，認為這些鄰近地區有大量機會。

The next question is from Lloyd Walmsley at Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的勞埃德‧沃姆斯利。

This is Greg on for Lloyd.

這是勞埃德的格雷格。

One, on the Premier Agent business.

一是關於高級代理業務。

So you talked about retention improving.

所以你談到了保留率的提高。

But can you maybe shed some light on the demographic agent who isn't necessarily coming back?

但你能否解釋一下不一定會回來的人口統計代理人？

So maybe the spend type or geographically.

所以可能是支出類型或地理位置。

And then two, on Homes.

然後是兩個，關於家園。

With the recent developments in the private funding market, have you seen the competitive environment change at all such that the iBuyer path to profitability may be better than you initially thought?

隨著私募融資市場的近期發展，您是否看到競爭環境發生了根本性變化，導致 iBuyer 的獲利之路可能比您最初想像的更好？

Greg, so I guess I would say with kind of broad strokes, we have all kinds of Premier Agents that are seeing success with our model.

格雷格，所以我想我會籠統地說，我們有各種各樣的高級經紀人，他們在我們的模式上取得了成功。

And depending on the size of the city and the kind of city and the kinds of homes in the city, these can -- it can differ.

根據城市的規模、城市的類型以及城市中房屋的類型，這些可能會有所不同。

But if I were to use a -- paint a broad brush and list some characteristics of agents where it's particularly well suited, I guess I would say that agent teams that are focused on a more mass market, mechanized, personal transaction with a team full of people that may have some specialists so they can handle the kind of mechanization it takes to analyze a business with a bunch of incoming leads, and then either monetizing that via the MBP model or in the 6 Flex markets, figuring how to nurture that lead all the way to the transaction using their tools and increasingly our tools to nurture that lead along the way.

但如果我用大筆畫一下，並列出特別適合的代理商的一些特徵，我想我會說，代理商團隊專注於更大眾的市場，機械化，個人交易，團隊充滿活力。可能有一些專家的人，這樣他們就可以處理分析具有大量潛在客戶的業務所需的機械化，然後通過MBP 模型或在6 個Flex 市場中將其貨幣化，弄清楚如何培育這種領先優勢一直使用他們的工具並越來越多使用我們的工具來進行交易，以一路培育領先地位。

These more mechanized business like teams are the ones that we think are, at least, demonstrating best fitness for what's coming -- what we think is coming in the future.

我們認為，這些更機械化的類似業務的團隊至少展示了最適合即將發生的事情——我們認為未來將會發生的事情。

I guess that's what I'd say generally.

我想這就是我一般會說的。

I forget the Homes question.

我忘記了家園問題。

Private funding market, have you seen the competitive landscape kind of develop any differently?

私募融資市場，您是否看到競爭格局有什麼不同的發展？

Right.

正確的。

Feels different.

感覺不一樣。

Feels a little different.

感覺有點不一樣。

I don't want to get too over -- too optimistic too early.

我不想太過樂觀——太早。

It has been a burr under my saddle, the easy money, easy late-stage money.

輕鬆賺錢、輕鬆後期賺錢一直是我鞍下的毛刺。

Because you got to play the game that's on the field.

因為你必須參加球場上的比賽。

The game on the field feels like it's changing a bit.

場上的比賽感覺好像發生了一些變化。

And the easy money might not be so easy and may be a bit more demanding.

而輕鬆賺錢可能沒那麼容易，可能要求更高一些。

I am extremely glad that we have this incredibly healthy core business in our IMT businesses that is growing nicely, gaining leverage, generating all this EBITDA for us to use to invest in kind of the next generation of growth and TAM.

我非常高興我們的 IMT 業務擁有令人難以置信的健康核心業務，該業務增長良好，獲得了槓桿作用，產生了所有這些 EBITDA，供我們用於投資下一代增長和 TAM。

I'm also really happy that we decided to put $1 billion or so on the balance sheet this past quarter in the convertible offering that we did while we could.

我也很高興我們決定在上個季度在資產負債表上投入 10 億美元左右的可轉換債券，這是我們盡我們所能進行的。

That, we feel like, we are in a really strong balance sheet position to fund our growth plan, which is -- it's a real and exciting growth plan, but it's one that we are approaching with Allen by my side, put it that way, not just me but Allen is here.

我們覺得，我們的資產負債表狀況非常強勁，可以為我們的成長計劃提供資金，這是一個真實且令人興奮的成長計劃，但這是我們正在與艾倫一起實施的一個計劃，這樣說吧，不只是我，艾倫也在這裡。

And so I would say overall, I read the news and I'm listening to stuff that's coming out of Masa's mouth at his press conference yesterday and we're listening to things.

所以我想說，總的來說，我讀了新聞，我正在聽馬薩在昨天的新聞發布會上嘴裡說的話，我們正在聽一些事情。

I'm getting happier about the competitive environment, but I think it's too early to say we're in a normal funding environment.

我對競爭環境越來越滿意，但我認為現在說我們處於正常的融資環境還為時過早。

The next question is from Maria Ripps at Canaccord.

下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps。

Maybe just to follow up on the profitability question.

也許只是為了跟進獲利能力問題。

So without providing any specific guidance, can you maybe share with us your thinking around improving profitability versus investing for growth next year?

因此，在不提供任何具體指導的情況下，您能否與我們分享您對明年提高獲利能力與投資成長的看法？

And what are key investment priorities for you in 2020 outside of the Homes segment?

2020 年，您在住宅領域之外的主要投資重點是什麼？

I don't know if I can punt that piece, the first part to you.

我不知道我是否可以把第一部分的那部分踢給你。

I mean we're not giving guidance yet, but...

我的意思是我們還沒有提供指導，但是......

Yes.

是的。

I mean I would say that in terms of what do we think our investment priority or how we will invest next year, I think that we continue to expect to scale Homes.

我的意思是，我想說，就我們認為我們的投資優先事項是什麼或我們明年將如何投資而言，我認為我們繼續期望擴大住房規模。

And as we talked about, we are going to test our Flex business model while continuing to focus on our agents and customers using the MBP model, and we'll continue to put the tech and the stack in place with our 2 new executives on the Mortgages to grow that business.

正如我們所討論的，我們將測試我們的 Flex 業務模型，同時繼續專注於使用 MBP 模型的代理商和客戶，並且我們將繼續與我們的 2 位新高管一起部署技術和堆疊。抵押貸款來發展該業務。

So I mean that -- I'd look to our long-term targets to provide you the best guidance on kind of how we'll be thinking about our investment cycle over the next few years.

所以我的意思是——我希望我們的長期目標能夠為您提供有關我們如何考慮未來幾年投資週期的最佳指導。

I look forward to sharing more detailed 2020 guidance next year.

我期待明年分享更詳細的 2020 年指導。

But as I mentioned on my focus, I will continue to focus on areas where we see the ability to improve productivity, do better resource allocation or build that muscle around disciplined spending that just allows us the flexibility to invest in Zillow 2.0 or to let that go down as margin expansion.

但正如我所提到的我的重點，我將繼續關注那些我們認為有能力提高生產力、更好地分配資源或圍繞嚴格支出建立力量的領域，這些領域使我們能夠靈活地投資Zillow 2.0 或讓Zillow 2.0成為可能。隨著利潤率擴張而下降。

But we're not providing any guidance past our -- the guidance that we provided today in 2019.

但除了我們今天在 2019 年提供的指導之外，我們不會提供任何指導。

The next question is -- are you ready for the next question?

下一個問題是──你準備好回答下一個問題了嗎？

Yes, please, Amy.

是的，請，艾米。

Okay.

好的。

We have Heath Terry at Goldman Sachs.

我們有高盛的希思·特里。

Rich, just curious, obviously realized that everything about Homes and Offers is still really, really early.

Rich 只是好奇，顯然意識到有關 Homes 和 Offers 的一切都還非常非常早。

But if you could kind of mark-to-market for us some of the early assumptions that you and the team, obviously going back to Spencer talked about in terms of what was underlying some of the economics that Zillow was thinking about when it entered the business, the 90-day turns on home sales, the cost of caring, the cost of financing, sort of how have those assumptions evolved in the 15 months that you've sort of been in the business?

但是，如果您能為我們提供一些以市價計價的早期假設，您和團隊顯然會回到 Spencer 所討論的 Zillow 在進入市場時所考慮的一些經濟學基礎。業務、房屋銷售的90 天週轉率、護理成本、融資成本，這些假設在您從事該業務的15 個月中是如何演變的？

Where do those numbers sort of sit in your model now that you've had a little bit more real-world experience in the business?

既然您在業務中擁有了更多的實際經驗，那麼這些數字在您的模型中處於什麼位置？

I mean Dawn is sitting next to me.

我的意思是黎明就坐在我旁邊。

And she hates it when I say I'm surprised that we're operating within the rails we laid out even 15 months ago, Heath.

當我說我很驚訝我們竟然在 15 個月前製定的軌道上運作時，她很討厭，Heath。

But we are.

但我們是。

And I credit Eric and Jeremy and the Zillow Offers team.

我感謝 Eric 和 Jeremy 以及 Zillow Offers 團隊。

We have Eric Power in particular and his really talented team.

我們特別有艾瑞克鮑爾（Eric Power）和他才華洋溢的團隊。

Eric's in Phoenix.

埃里克在鳳凰城。

They came from one of the precursor companies, Invitation Homes.

他們來自前身公司之一——Invitation Homes。

And they had built up, I guess, Invitation Homes.

我猜他們已經建立了邀請之家。

You guys would probably know better.

你們可能會更清楚。

It probably has 85,000, 90,000 homes that they own.

他們可能擁有 85,000 至 90,000 套房屋。

Now that's a different business.

現在那是另一回事了。

But these folks had built up that business and really understood the line item -- many of the line items of economics that constitute this Zillow Offers business.

但這些人已經建立了該業務，並且真正了解該項目——構成 Zillow Offers 業務的許多經濟學項目。

And it's played out within our expectations, which I'm really pleased about, and done so while it's grown a kind of nonmeasurable percentage year-over-year, right?

它的表現符合我們的預期，我對此感到非常高興，並且在它同比增長了一種不可衡量的百分比的情況下做到了這一點，對吧？

It's gotten -- it's growing really fast and gotten really big.

它已經變得非常快並且變得非常大。

It's -- I wish we had more evidence to point to you of line item leverage right now.

我希望我們現在有更多證據來表明您的訂單項槓桿作用。

We will in the future.

我們將來會。

But as I've said, I think on a previous question or maybe in the script, we -- step 1 was go broad.

但正如我所說，我認為在先前的問題或劇本中，我們——第一步是廣泛的。

Step 2 was go deep and get leverage.

第二步是深入並獲得槓桿作用。

I guess we can point to one point of leverage on the financing side.

我想我們可以指出融資方面的一個槓桿點。

Of course, financing is a very important cost component in this business.

當然，融資是該業務中非常重要的成本組成部分。

And our -- I'm also really pleased with the way we have Eric Power and his team in conjunction with Allen have put together this layer of bilaterals, this kind of stack of bilaterals we've got in place, each one getting better.

我也對埃里克·鮑爾（Eric Power）和他的團隊與艾倫一起將這一層雙邊協議放在一起的方式感到非常滿意，我們已經建立了這種雙邊協議棧，每一個都在變得更好。

And one of the things that can come out of the financials from today, I think, has to do with our loan-to-value ratio.

我認為，從今天的財務數據中可以得出的結論之一與我們的貸款價值比有關。

Yes.

是的。

I usually express a simple loan-to-value our -- I'll call it a leverage ratio, which is our Homes inventory value on the balance sheet at 9/30 versus the vehicles, the asset-backed credit facilities utilized.

我通常會表達一個簡單的貸款價值比——我稱之為槓桿比率，即資產負債表上我們的房屋庫存價值與車輛（所使用的資產支持信貸便利）的比率為 9/30。

And that's 79% versus 74% at the end of 6/30.

6 月 30 日末，這一數字為 79%，而為 74%。

So an improvement of 500 basis points.

因此提高了 500 個基點。

That is reflective of our continued improvement on trying to ensure as we buy these homes and put them through these facilities, that we do it in a very effective and efficient way to ensure, where possible, we're leveraging these facilities for some of the capital needs we have versus our own capital.

這反映了我們在努力確保購買這些房屋並使用這些設施時不斷改進，以一種非常有效和高效的方式進行，以確保在可能的情況下，我們利用這些設施來實現某些目標我們的資本需求與我們自己的資本。

But I will also express that, that number will likely vary.

但我還要表示，這個數字可能會有所不同。

We're still very early days, and that number will likely vary.

我們還處於早期階段，這個數字可能會有所不同。

But with respect to our asset-backed borrowing in the Homes business, we continue to work -- we announced a new facility today.

但就我們在房屋業務中的資產支持借款而言，我們仍在繼續努力——我們今天宣布了一項新貸款。

We continue to work with a lot of different parties who are very receptive.

我們繼續與許多非常樂於接受的各方合作。

And the goal we've expressed is that we want to go deeper, cheaper and longer maturity, longer, which provides us more flexibility.

我們表達的目標是，我們希望走得更深，成本更低，成熟度更長，時間更長，這為我們提供了更大的靈活性。

I would say the one, I'll call it, mark-to-market, as you called it, I think it's important to clarify is the 90-day hold time is one that's just hard because that's an average that really is representative of a lot of different distributions and not really representative of any of them.

我想說的是，我稱之為“按市值計價”，正如你所說，我認為澄清這一點很重要，90 天的持有時間是一個很難的時間，因為這是一個真正代表的平均值。有很多不同的發行版，但並不能真正代表其中任何一個。

So when we buy homes, depending on price, market and a variety of other things, we expect those hold times to vary.

因此，當我們購買房屋時，根據價格、市場和各種其他因素，我們預計持有時間會有所不同。

That is reflective in our fee.

這反映在我們的費用中。

I don't want to give the impression in all cases we are looking to reduce the hold times.

我不想在所有情況下都給人留下我們正在尋求減少保留時間的印象。

But that 90-day across an average portfolio is just not the way we manage the business.

但平均投資組合的 90 天並不是我們管理業務的方式。

We manage it across an expectation that we pay for.

我們透過支付的期望來管理它。

And again, we expect over time to improve that through a variety of ways.

再次，我們希望隨著時間的推移，透過各種方式來改善這一點。

We get paid for it.

我們為此得到報酬。

Yes.

是的。

Let me wrap this one, Heath, by saying we really do think scale -- and I think I said this already, but we really do think scale in ZO matters.

Heath，讓我總結一下，我們確實考慮了規模——我想我已經說過了，但我們確實認為 ZO 的規模很重要。

We think that we know that sellers are -- this is a pretty price-elastic business.

我們認為我們知道賣家——這是一個價格彈性很大的行業。

And that every little bit that we are able to -- every little bit more we're able to offer a homeowner for their house because we're running a more efficient operation, we have cheaper financing expenses, we are able to sell a market these homes cheaper than onesie-twosie or small folks.

我們能夠為房主的房子提供更多的一點點，因為我們的運營效率更高，我們的融資費用更便宜，我們能夠出售市場這些房子比連體雙人房或小房子便宜。

Every little bit that we are able to do actually dramatically increases the size of the business that we think we can ultimately run.

我們能夠做的每一點實際上都大大增加了我們認為最終可以經營的業務規模。

So these -- there is a, I guess -- I don't know if I'd call this a network effect.

所以這些——我想——我不知道我是否可以稱之為網路效應。

It's not really that.

事實並非如此。

It's just a scale effect.

這只是規模經濟。

There's a strong scale effect, we believe, in the Zillow Offers business.

我們相信，Zillow Offers 業務具有強大的規模經濟。

So we think this is an important strategic decision to actually have this be big to make it get big.

因此，我們認為這是一個重要的策略決策，實際上是讓它變得更大。

Our next question is from Brent Thill at Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。

This is Alex Giaimo on for Brent.

我是亞歷克斯·吉艾莫（Alex Giaimo）代表布倫特發言。

Just going back to your comments around the iBuying competitive environment.

回到您對 iBuying 競爭環境的評論。

I think we're starting to see some more overlap now between some of the bigger players.

我認為我們現在開始看到一些較大的參與者之間有更多的重疊。

We heard from Redfin last night that they're ramping at a quicker pace as well.

昨晚我們從 Redfin 獲悉，他們的發展速度也正在加快。

Just curious if that's starting to impact pricing at all and whether it impacts your thoughts around the pace in which you're entering new markets?

只是好奇這是否開始影響定價，以及是否會影響您對進入新市場步伐的想法？

They are different, Alex.

他們是不同的，亞歷克斯。

There are different things.

有不同的事情。

There are different competitive dynamics and different kinds of tests and learnings going on in each market right now that we're in.

目前我們所處的每個市場都有不同的競爭動態以及不同類型的測試和學習。

And it depends on competition.

這取決於競爭。

It depends on a lot of different factors.

這取決於很多不同的因素。

And I guess I would use that as a way of saying that if you're scraping MLS data and coming to conclusions about what's going on in any individual market, don't over-extrapolate too much because it's early days and there are bunches.

我想我會以此來表達，如果你正在抓取 MLS 數據並得出關於任何單一市場正在發生的事情的結論，請不要過度推斷，因為現在還處於早期階段，而且還有很多數據。

There are lots of tests going on.

有很多測試正在進行。

The amount of iBuying in totality is tiny.

iBuying 的總量很小。

It's really tiny.

它真的很小。

Most people don't know about it, okay?

大多數人都不知道，好嗎？

It's really, really small.

它真的非常非常小。

And so I don't -- we are not -- we have not entered a phase in this iBuying thing where the competitive dynamics actually matter all that much.

所以我不認為——我們不是——我們還沒有進入 iBuying 的階段，在這個階段，競爭動態實際上非常重要。

They certainly come into play a bit.

它們確實發揮了一些作用。

But the most important thing is for us to offer a product and a service at a price that is attractive to the old way of doing it.

但對我們來說，最重要的是以對舊方式有吸引力的價格提供產品和服務。

And that's what we are focused on right now.

這就是我們現在關注的重點。

The next question comes from Justin Patterson at Raymond James.

下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的賈斯汀帕特森。

On PA, you talked about customer satisfaction and revenue and profit yield as the central pillars.

在 PA 上，您談到了客戶滿意度以及收入和利潤率作為核心支柱。

Focusing on that, what are the key things to solve that bring a product like seller listings to market?

重點來說，將賣家清單這樣的產品推向市場需要解決哪些關鍵問題？

And then secondly, a big picture one.

第二，大局觀。

Rich, you talked a lot about the vision of an integrated product.

Rich，您談了很多關於整合產品的願景。

You've got a ton of areas where you can test and learn from PA, Mortgages and Homes.

您可以在許多領域進行測試並從 PA、抵押貸款和房屋中學習。

Since you've come back to the company, what are the biggest changes you've made to align the teams to execute on those areas without getting too far over their skis?

自從您回到公司以來，您為了使團隊能夠在這些領域執行任務而不超出他們的極限而做出的最大改變是什麼？

Okay.

好的。

Good stuff.

好東西。

On the seller listings product, and I've chatted about it a little bit before, I do think of seller listings as one of many kind of knock-on or adjacent opportunities that are out there.

關於賣家清單產品，我之前已經討論過一點，我確實認為賣家清單是現有的多種連鎖或相鄰機會之一。

And I guess I'd also say that while the revenue numbers are quite large for the Homes business, at the end, the number of units is still pretty small.

我想我還想說，雖然住宅業務的收入相當大，但最終的單位數量仍然很小。

And so the magnitude of the number of looks we're getting for this kind of opportunity are still really small and tiny compared to the hurricane of leads we get from our traditional business, the 2 billion visits a month that we get on our apps and sites.

因此，與我們從傳統業務中獲得的大量潛在客戶、每月 20 億次的應用程式訪問量和網站。

So it's early days there.

所以現在還為時過早。

We are rapidly learning.

我們正在快速學習。

We are trying a whole bunch of different things.

我們正在嘗試很多不同的事情。

Some of you have sniffed around in markets and discovered all kinds of tests that we're running.

你們中的一些人已經在市場中進行了探索，並發現了我們正在進行的各種測試。

And so we are trying things.

所以我們正在嘗試一些事情。

Some things are showing promise.

有些事情正在顯現出希望。

Some things are not working.

有些事情不起作用。

From the second part of your question, it was the integrated product and what we are learning.

從你問題的第二部分來看，這是整合的產品和我們正在學習的內容。

And yes, so bringing on people who know how to run these businesses is job #1.

是的，因此聘請知道如何經營這些業務的人是第一要務。

We didn't have people that knew how to build the -- that knew how to buy this many homes.

我們沒有知道如何建造、知道如何購買這麼多房屋的人。

And we recruited an amazing team to do that.

我們招募了一支出色的團隊來做到這一點。

We didn't know about title and escrow, and we've recruited a fantastic team to do that.

我們不知道所有權和託管，但我們已經招募了一支出色的團隊來做到這一點。

We didn't know how to create a mortgage.

我們不知道如何創建抵押貸款。

And so we purchased a small company last year and now brought on some really seasoned leadership from direct-to-consumer lending businesses to run the mortgage business.

因此，我們去年收購了一家小公司，現在從直接面向消費者的貸款業務中聘請了一些經驗豐富的領導層來經營抵押貸款業務。

We are investing in these in a way that I would call aggressive but prudent without getting out over our skis, utilizing EBITDA from the main -- from our core advertising businesses.

我們正在以一種我稱之為積極但謹慎的方式進行投資，但又不失時機，利用我們主要的核心廣告業務的 EBITDA。

I feel really good that it's in balance and that it's working pretty well.

我感覺非常好，它處於平衡狀態並且運行得很好。

The next question is from Brian Nowak at Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布萊恩·諾瓦克。

So I have two.

所以我有兩個。

The first one just on the same-store sale acceleration in Premier Agent.

第一個只是關於 Premier Agent 中的同店銷售加速。

I was wondering, could you just talk to sort of anything that changed from a consumer behavior perspective that drove this?

我想知道，您能否談談從消費者行為角度來看導致這項變化的任何變化？

Are you actually seeing more homes being sold to the platform that's driving more bidding around impressions?

您是否真的看到越來越多的房屋被出售給該平台，從而推動了更多圍繞展示次數的出價？

Like what's -- are there other changes made?

比如——還有其他改變嗎？

What sort of drove the acceleration sort of mechanically for us as we sort of think about further levers to go?

當我們思考進一步的槓桿時，是什麼機械地推動了我們的加速？

And then on Flex.

然後是 Flex。

Maybe walk us through sort of the framework that you guys plan to apply on a market-by-market basis as you're sort of evaluating which markets may or may not be best served with a Flex offering in them over time?

也許可以帶我們了解一下你們計劃在逐個市場應用的框架，因為你們正在評估隨著時間的推移哪些市場可能會或可能不會最好地接受 Flex 產品的服務？

You want me to take the first?

你想讓我拿第一嗎？

Sure, sure.

一定一定。

Okay.

好的。

So I kind of -- we've been talking about this recurrent revenue, MBP's recurrent revenue model that we have a really high churn.

所以我認為——我們一直在談論這種經常性收入，MBP 的經常性收入模式，我們的客戶流失率非常高。

We dug ourselves into a hole.

我們給自己挖了一個洞。

We've had to build ourselves up.

我們必須增強自己。

So I do want to be clear that there was not a significant inflection point so much as the inputs have been going really well.

因此，我確實想澄清的是，並沒有出現重大的轉折點，因為投入進展得非常順利。

And we saw what I'll say productivity and agent retention in Q3 come in better than we expected.

我們看到第三季的生產力和座席保留率比我們預期的要好。

So the 5% was better than we had expected, which is why we showed the results we did, and we expect this to continue in Q4.

所以 5% 比我們預期的要好，這就是為什麼我們展示了我們所做的結果，我們預計這種情況將在第四季度繼續下去。

But a lot of these trends have been going on all year.

但其中許多趨勢全年都在發生。

We've had to build -- kind of dig ourselves out of this hole that we had dug when we had the high churn in the second half of last year.

我們必須把自己從去年下半年高流失率時挖的坑挖出來。

But -- and I think it's just basic blocking and tackling.

但是——我認為這只是基本的攔截和攔截。

PA Forward is providing more connections, more warm leads to our agents, which is getting customer and agent together.

PA Forward 正在為我們的代理商提供更多的聯繫、更溫暖的線索，從而將客戶和代理商聯繫在一起。

CSat is improving.

CSat 正在改進。

We can't track conversion on all submits that we do, but we have indicators that conversion is improving.

我們無法追蹤我們所做的所有提交的轉化，但我們有跡象表明轉化正在改善。

And so it's really just basic blocking and tackling.

所以這實際上只是基本的阻擋和攔截。

We've seen the inputs get better over time, and we just kind of had a little bit better productivity and retention that caused us to inflect a little better than our forecast, which we reflected obviously in Q3 results as well as our Q4 guidance.

我們已經看到投入隨著時間的推移而變得更好，而且我們的生產力和保留率有所提高，這使我們的變化比我們的預測好一點，這在第三季度的業績和第四季度的指導中得到了明顯的反映。

So it's just a lot of inputs that are slowly getting better, and we feel like we've got continued room to improve those.

因此，大量的投入正在慢慢變得更好，我們覺得我們還有持續改進的空間。

I guess virtually, the market is -- the partners and our customers, the end consumers are responding well with this push that we're making to move down funnel in the core PA business as well, meaning we're taking care to make the connection, to make sure the meeting happens, to arrange the tour in a way that the tour actually happens and then to follow that shared consumer on their journey towards the transaction.

我想，實際上，市場——合作夥伴、我們的客戶、最終消費者對我們推動核心 PA 業務向下推進的舉措反應良好，這意味著我們正在努力使連接，以確保會面發生，以實際發生的方式安排旅行，然後追蹤共享消費者的交易旅程。

We are building -- we continue to roll out tools that make that happen, and that's making the business work better.

我們正在建構——我們將繼續推出實現這一目標的工具，這將使業務運作得更好。

And we expect that to continue.

我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

The second part of your question was about Flex framework for evaluation.

您問題的第二部分是關於 Flex 評估框架。

We're trying a diversity of things in these different markets.

我們正在這些不同的市場嘗試各種各樣的事情。

We hope that these 5, soon 6 markets, represent enough footprint and enough diversity for us to get a good test signal.

我們希望這 5 個（很快將是 6 個）市場能夠代表足夠的足跡和足夠的多樣性，以便我們獲得良好的測試訊號。

Yes, to get a good test signal.

是的，為了獲得良好的測試訊號。

So we're trying a whole bunch of things.

所以我們正在嘗試很多事情。

We don't have any patterns to report on yet.

我們還沒有任何模式可供報告。

Some -- in some places, some things are working.

有些——在某些地方，有些事情正在發揮作用。

In other places, they are not.

在其他地方，情況並非如此。

And so we are highly motivated because we're so optimistic that this is a potential big win-win-win all the way around, as you've heard us say.

因此，我們動力十足，因為我們非常樂觀，相信這將是一個潛在的雙贏局面，正如您聽到我們所說的那樣。

And we like it because it's better for customers, it's better for partners and it could be better for us.

我們喜歡它，因為它對客戶更好，對合作夥伴更好，對我們也可能更好。

And it fits with this move down the funnel towards the transaction that we think is so key to unlocking all of these knock-on adjacent opportunities.

它符合我們認為交易是解鎖所有這些連鎖機會的關鍵的這個漏斗向下的移動。

Again, it will take time.

同樣，這需要時間。

I think we said it, Rich.

我想我們已經說過了，里奇。

But we did choose Phoenix and Atlanta because they were ZO markets that we were...

但我們確實選擇了鳳凰城和亞特蘭大，因為它們是我們所在的 ZO 市場…

The latest 2 markets that we've announced.

我們宣布的最新 2 個市場。

I guess we announced it last quarter.

我想我們上個季度就宣布了這一點。

But we're in Phoenix now.

但我們現在在鳳凰城。

We're about to ship Atlanta.

我們即將出貨亞特蘭大。

There's no surprise that those are 2 of our older -- I just said we do not have any old, 2 of our first Zillow Offers markets.

毫無疑問，這些是我們的兩個較舊的市場 - 我只是說我們沒有任何舊的兩個我們的第一個 Zillow Offers 市場。

And we have terrific ZO partners in those markets who we have done some of the most deep systems integrations with in order to follow these customers throughout the whole transaction.

我們在這些市場上擁有出色的 ZO 合作夥伴，我們與他們進行了一些最深入的系統集成，以便在整個交易過程中追蹤這些客戶。

And we're leveraging a lot of that infrastructure to do these Flex tests as well.

我們也利用大量基礎設施來進行 Flex 測試。

And so that's -- it's -- we're optimistic.

所以我們很樂觀。

The next question comes from Brad Erickson at Needham & Company.

下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Brad Erickson。

First, just I guess last quarter, felt like the message with Flex was definitely the future for the PA business.

首先，我想上個季度，Flex 傳達的訊息絕對是 PA 業務的未來。

You're obviously talking about the merits of the better model, better monetization, better customer experience, all that.

顯然，您談論的是更好的模型、更好的貨幣化、更好的客戶體驗等等的優點。

So I guess wondering why all of a sudden it seems like the message today is that legacy MRR is a little bit better and it's going to be more wait-and-see on Flex.

所以我想知道為什麼今天會突然出現這樣的訊息：傳統的 MRR 更好一點，而且人們對 Flex 會更加觀望。

I guess how should we take that in the context of which business model you're likely to pursue here going forward?

我想在您未來可能追求哪種商業模式的背景下，我們應該如何看待這一點？

And I guess secondly, is there a chance where if the economics on Flex aren't as good for whatever reason, would sticking with the MRR model work with the broader down funnel pieces here longer term?

其次，我想，如果 Flex 的經濟效益出於某種原因而沒有那麼好，是否有可能長期堅持 MRR 模型與更廣泛的下漏斗部分一起工作？

There hasn't been any underlying change, Brad.

布拉德，沒有任何根本性的改變。

There's just been a change in the way we communicated it and in recognition that we left a big open question unanswered last quarter in terms of, hey, it's just -- it is different -- it could be different revenue recognition, but it's just a test and we don't know when, et cetera.

只是我們溝通的方式發生了變化，並認識到我們上個季度留下了一個懸而未決的大問題，嘿，這只是 - 這是不同的 - 它可能是不同的收入確認，但這只是一個測試，我們不知道什麼時候，等等。

We just left a big question mark, which was a mistake.

我們只是留下了一個大問號，這是一個錯誤。

We're trying to solve for that this quarter, which is what you're detecting as a change -- as a potential change in the underlying way we're thinking about it.

我們正在努力在本季度解決這個問題，這就是你們所檢測到的變化——我們思考這個問題的根本方式的潛在變化。

We're not.

不是。

We are just changing -- we're saying look, this test, we're trying to frame it for you, saying it represents 5% of ARR -- excuse me, MRR in the business, which seems like a reasonable amount of MRR to test with, okay?

我們只是在改變 - 我們說看，這個測試，我們試圖為您構建它，說它代表 ARR 的 5％ - 對不起，業務中的 MRR，這似乎是合理的 MRR來測試一下，好嗎？

And we're also going further saying, look, we need the data case ourselves and we know we need to make the data case to you to the extent we move beyond it.

我們還進一步說，看，我們自己需要數據案例，我們知道我們需要向您提供數據案例，以達到我們超越它的程度。

And while we are doing this, we're growing the core MBP business really nicely, getting leverage on that.

在我們這樣做的同時，我們正在很好地發展核心 MBP 業務，並充分利用這一點。

We like that business, but we do think it can be improved.

我們喜歡這項業務，但我們確實認為它可以改進。

But we really like that business.

但我們真的很喜歡這項業務。

Partners like that business and customers like that business, too.

合作夥伴喜歡該業務，客戶也喜歡這項業務。

So...

所以...

The next question is from Andy Hargreaves at KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Andy Hargreaves。

I'm just going to keep on the Flex themes, if that's okay.

如果可以的話，我將繼續使用 Flex 主題。

No.

不。

Do you want me to change?

你想讓我改變嗎？

I can.

我可以。

Just kidding, Andy.

開玩笑吧，安迪。

What do you -- I'm wondering what you're looking for from a metric standpoint from demand, agent demand around Flex and if you guys can share anything around sign-ups or feedbacks so far, recognizing that it's still a test.

你會做什麼——我想知道從需求、Flex 周圍代理需求的指標角度來看，你們正在尋找什麼，以及你們是否可以分享到目前為止有關註冊或反饋的任何信息，認識到這仍然是一個測試。

Yes.

是的。

It's -- we just did this Unlock event in Las Vegas.

我們剛剛在拉斯維加斯舉辦了這次解鎖活動。

I think we had 2,000 people overall.

我想我們總共有 2,000 人。

Maybe 1,500 of them were Premier Agents.

其中可能有 1,500 名高級特工。

These are the top agents and teams that paid to come.

這些都是付費前來的頂級經紀人和團隊。

So it's not a representative sample of the total partner base we have.

因此，這並不是我們擁有的整個合作夥伴基礎的代表性樣本。

It's the most productive, the most forward-thinking.

這是最有生產力、最有前瞻性的。

I would characterize it as -- these people are making their money from the business as it is -- as it currently is.

我將其描述為——這些人正在從目前的業務中賺錢。

And any change is a little scary.

任何變化都有點可怕。

But I would say a large subset and growing are realizing this is a real potential game-changer for the business long term, for the whole industry long term.

但我想說的是，很大一部分人以及越來越多的人正在意識到，從長遠來看，這對企業、整個行業來說是一個真正潛在的遊戲規則改變者。

They are understanding that for the middle of the bell curve of real estate transactions, these are going to go to high-volume teams.

他們了解到，對於房地產交易鐘形曲線的中間部分，這些將流向高交易量的團隊。

It's going to get mechanized just like every other business that technology touches.

就像技術涉及的所有其他業務一樣，它將變得機械化。

And they are really anxious to be at the front of the queue for testing.

他們真的很渴望排在測試隊列的前面。

A lot of hands are going up saying, when you come to [export to] my town, I want to be your test partner.

很多人舉手說，當你來到我的城鎮時，我想成為你的測試夥伴。

And so that's an encouraging signal.

這是一個令人鼓舞的信號。

There are others as well that we talk to and you might talk to as well that are -- think it's the end of the world is a little too strong, but are worried about it.

我們與其他人交談過，你也可能與他們交談過，他們認為世界末日有點太強烈了，但他們對此感到擔憂。

They're making money the way they're making money and they don't want to change.

他們按照自己的方式賺錢，不想改變。

But we want the best partners no matter how we monetize, okay?

但無論我們如何獲利，我們都想要最好的合作夥伴，好嗎？

That's best for all and that's best for customers as well.

這對所有人來說都是最好的，對客戶來說也是最好的。

The next question is from Jason Helfstein at Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Jason Helfstein。

This is Jason Hoffman on for Jason Helfstein.

我是傑森‧霍夫曼 (Jason Hoffman) 代表傑森‧赫夫斯坦 (Jason Helfstein)。

We were wondering how many -- like what is the percent of homes in inventory that is greater than 60 days?

我們想知道有多少——例如庫存時間超過 60 天的房屋所佔的百分比是多少？

And just last quarter, you mentioned that you are increasing the size of your Flex test and now you're not.

就在上個季度，您提到您正在擴大 Flex 測試的規模，但現在卻沒有。

How much of that is being pulled forward into your guidance going forward?

其中有多少內容被納入您未來的指導中？

Maybe we'll take the second question first just because I think it's shorter.

也許我們會先回答第二個問題，因為我認為它更短。

I'm not sure I understood.

我不確定我是否理解了。

We announced we were expanding our Flex test at the end of our Q2 call and that because we were going to be flipping those markets from our prepaid model to this Flex testing, which is where we get paid upon the close of the house that, that would have the impact of deferring revenue into future periods.

我們宣布，我們將在第二季電話會議結束時擴大 Flex 測試，因為我們要將這些市場從預付費模式轉向 Flex 測試，這是我們在交易結束時獲得報酬的地方，將會產生將收入遞延至未來期間的影響。

And our change in guidance for the second half of the year was lowered to reflect that movement of revenue into future periods.

我們降低了下半年指導的變化，以反映收入向未來時期的變化。

Nothing has changed with respect to that.

這方面沒有任何改變。

We are flipping those markets as expected.

我們正在按預期翻轉這些市場。

And so as I mentioned before, that impact in Q2 was driven by Flex, expanding that market.

正如我之前提到的，第二季的影響是由 Flex 推動的，擴大了該市場。

The adjustment -- the performance in Q3 and the adjustment to our Q4 outlook is reflective of our core MBP business improving in both sales productivity and retention rate versus our expectations at the time of the Q2 guidance.

此次調整－第三季的業績和對第四季度前景的調整反映了我們的核心 MBP 業務在銷售生產力和保留率方面均優於我們在第二季指引時的預期。

With respect to your first question, we don't provide a distribution of our homes and our aging.

關於你的第一個問題，我們不提供我們的家庭和老化情況的分佈。

As I mentioned, we don't believe the actual age days is very reflective externally just given that it varies a lot by market, by price of home and a variety of other factors.

正如我所提到的，我們不認為實際年齡在外部具有很大的反映性，因為它因市場、房價和各種其他因素而變化很大。

All of our underwriting and pricing takes into -- takes that into account when we give -- provide our offer because homes that we believe will take longer to sell, we charge more for related to the holding cost, interest and others.

我們所有的承保和定價都會考慮——在我們提供報價時考慮到這一點——提供我們的報價，因為我們認為房屋需要更長的時間才能出售，我們會收取更多與持有成本、利息和其他相關的費用。

So I think the best thing to kind of consider is we provide a per unit home metric, and then we did -- we talked about it last call, and we do assess as required to mark down our inventory to the lower of cost or net realizable value.

因此，我認為最好考慮的事情是我們提供每單位房屋指標，然後我們做了——我們在上次電話會議上討論過它，我們確實根據需要進行評估，以將我們的庫存降到成本或淨值中的較低者。可實現價值。

And we do that assessment for inventory in the balance sheet on a quarterly basis.

我們每季都會對資產負債表中的庫存進行評估。

That's an accounting adjustment and does requires us to mark those -- that inventory that is below cost to a net realizable value.

這是一項會計調整，確實要求我們將那些低於成本的庫存標記為可變現淨值。

But it doesn't -- it's not a mark to market.

但事實並非如此——這不是按市值計價。

So we don't take the mark on the high end.

所以我們不把標記放在高端。

And that mark in Q3 was consistent with Q2 at a little less than 1% of the inventory value.

第三季的數字與第二季一致，略低於庫存價值的 1%。

So hopefully that helps.

希望這會有所幫助。

The next question is from Naved Khan at SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Naved Khan。

Just on that inventory evaluation, are there things that you tweak to your guidance, maybe in terms of just pricing and when you make the offers, you just hone that guidance as pricing is better and you do less of the adjustments?

就庫存評估而言，您是否對指導進行了一些調整，也許只是在定價方面，當您提出報價時，您只是磨練指導，因為定價更好並且您做的調整較少？

And then secondarily, on the integrated mortgage and origination offering.

其次是綜合抵押貸款和發行產品。

I guess on the last call, you said it was delayed.

我猜你上次打電話時說航班延誤了。

Any updates on when you can go to market with that?

有關何時可以將其推向市場的任何更新嗎？

Did you get the first part?

你拿到第一部分了嗎？

Can you just repeat the question on the -- you were saying are there things we could do, you were saying, that would reduce the inventory reserves?

您能否重複這個問題—您說我們可以做一些事情來減少庫存儲備？

The question ties to, I guess, the write-down on the inventory you carry.

我想，這個問題與您所持有的庫存的減記有關。

It's happened last quarter, and I think you said that it was similar adjustments this time around in terms of percentage of the -- as a percentage component.

這發生在上個季度，我想你說過，這次在百分比方面進行了類似的調整——作為百分比組成部分。

Are there things that you can do in terms of how you value the homes when you buy them so that you kind of lower the adjustment if it's further downward?

在購買房屋時，您可以採取哪些措施來評估房屋的價值，以便在房屋進一步下跌時降低調整幅度？

Yes.

是的。

I guess what I'd say is in general, as we think about this business and we make offers to our customers who are interested in selling to us, we are attempting to provide them a fair value for their price adjusted for renovations that we need to make and what we expect the holding costs of that home over the period we expect to sell it along with a fee for the service we provide.

我想我想說的是，總的來說，當我們考慮這項業務並向有興趣向我們出售產品的客戶提供報價時，我們試圖為他們提供一個公平的價格，並根據我們需要的裝修進行調整我們預計該房屋在出售期間的持有成本以及我們提供的服務的費用。

So what I have learned in the Homes business is that obviously, pricing that home is very important.

所以我在房屋業務中學到的是，顯然，房屋定價非常重要。

And that is where over time, as we get more data and we have access to a lot of data, we continue to get more.

隨著時間的推移，隨著我們獲得更多數據並且我們可以存取大量數據，我們將繼續獲得更多數據。

We will get better and better about what types of homes, what attributes to allow us to predict better what performance of that house should be within a range that we expect some to do better and some to do worse.

我們將越來越了解什麼類型的房屋、什麼屬性，以便我們更好地預測該房屋的性能應該在我們期望有些房子做得更好、有些房子做得更差的範圍內。

But the smarter we get and the more we leverage data and machine learning, we will be able to tighten that standard deviation between what the average of that portfolio does.

但我們越聰明，越多利用數據和機器學習，我們就能夠縮小該投資組合平均值之間的標準差。

What this lower of cost or net realizable value reserve adjustment does, it's an accounting adjustment that requires to take those houses that are on one side of that standard deviation, i.e., that we are going to sell them for less than we bought them for, including selling cost, and make that adjustment in the current period versus when we sell it.

這種較低的成本或可變現淨值準備金調整的作用是一種會計調整，需要考慮那些處於標準差一側的房屋，即我們將以低於購買價格的價格出售它們，包括銷售成本，並在當期與我們出售時進行調整。

We don't get a full mark where we take the benefit of the houses on the other side of the mean 1 standard deviation that we make more money.

如果我們利用位於平均 1 標準差另一側的房屋的收益來賺更多的錢，我們就不會得到滿分。

But again, as we -- what I guess I would say is our expectation or obviously the success of this business, data has to help us reduce that variance on a portfolio basis from the mean, when you think about 1 standard deviate -- that tail.

但同樣，正如我們——我想我想說的是我們的期望或顯然是這項業務的成功，數據必須幫助我們減少投資組合與平均值的差異，當你考慮 1 個標準偏差時——尾巴。

And as we do that, we would expect to have less as a percentage in here, but it's a normal adjustment.

當我們這樣做時，我們預計這裡的百分比會減少，但這是正常的調整。

And we do expect that there will always be homes on both sides, if that helps.

如果有幫助的話，我們確實希望雙方永遠都有家。

I don't know if we want to close on this with the sparkler.

我不知道我們是否想用煙火來結束這件事。

I can get this.

我能得到這個。

You got that?

你明白了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

This is just to give people scale on kind of the homes economics.

這只是為了讓人們了解家庭經濟的規模。

This would be basically accumulation of the per unit economics that we provided in the last 3 quarters.

這基本上是我們在過去三個季度提供的單位經濟效益的累積。

And it is lifetime or 4 quarters.

這是一生或四個季度。

Lifetime at Zillow, we sold 814 million homes -- we had $814 million of revenue off of 2,588 homes.

在 Zillow 的一生中，我們售出了 8.14 億套房屋——我們從 2,588 套房屋中獲得了 8.14 億美元的收入。

Our return on homes sold before interest expense is $2.3 million, and that return on homes sold after it's expensed is a loss of $9 million.

我們在扣除利息費用之前出售房屋的回報為 230 萬美元，在扣除利息費用後出售房屋的回報為 900 萬美元的損失。

So in the scheme of -- when Rich talks about really excited about the scale we've had and how we're operating in the limits, that's a pretty tight -- that could have gone a lot of different ways.

因此，在這個計劃中——當里奇談到我們對我們所擁有的規模以及我們如何在限制下運作時感到非常興奮時，這是一個非常嚴格的計劃——本來可以有很多不同的方式。

It's impressive.

令人印象深刻。

It's impressive and relatively small.

它令人印象深刻而且相對較小。

So it's a good way to -- and Naved, your last question was about the integration of mortgage.

所以這是一個好方法——Naved，你的最後一個問題是關於抵押貸款的整合。

We're executing on our plan.

我們正在執行我們的計劃。

It looks good.

看起來不錯。

We've got some exciting new management in place with Rian and Libby that I talked about before.

我們已經與 Rian 和 Libby 建立了一些令人興奮的新管理層，我之前談過。

We are doing some localized test of integrated Zillow Home Loans.

我們正在對綜合 Zillow Home Loans 進行一些本地化測試。

As per that fantastic video that I'm sure you guys a lot of times have clicked on from the shareholder letter, I -- it's a fun video actually and it's a true story.

根據那個精彩的視頻，我相信你們很多次都從股東信中點擊過，我——這實際上是一個有趣的視頻，而且是一個真實的故事。

So it's cool.

所以這很酷。

So it's beginning to happen.

所以它開始發生。

This one, like many of these adjacencies, is going to play out over time as we learn and build the business though.

不過，與許多此類鄰接問題一樣，隨著我們學習和建立業務，這個問題將隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。

But we're excited about it.

但我們對此感到興奮。

We're very excited about the long-term profit potential in these adjacent businesses.

我們對這些相鄰業務的長期利潤潛力感到非常興奮。

I think that's it.

我想就是這樣。

Thank you guys very much.

非常感謝你們。

We're really excited about the progress we're making to mechanize this transaction.

我們對這項交易機械化所取得的進展感到非常興奮。

And it's fun to update you guys on our progress along the way.

很高興向大家介紹我們一路走來的最新進展。

So thank you for joining us on this.

感謝您加入我們。

Thank you for your investment dollars.

感謝您的投資。

We will -- we take it -- as I said before, we care, we're shareholders and we will take care of your capital and do our best with it.

我們將——我們接受——正如我之前所說，我們關心您，我們是股東，我們將照顧您的資本並盡最大努力利用它。

Thank you for being great partners.

感謝你們成為出色的合作夥伴。

Talk to you next quarter.

下個季度再聊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。