Zillow Group Inc (Z) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Zillow Group Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Zillow 集團 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議可能會被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. RJ Jones, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁RJ Jones 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Zillow Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today to discuss our results are Zillow Group's Co-Founder and CEO, Rich Barton; Co-Founder, Spencer Rascoff; CFO, Allen Parker; Zillow Brand President and Co-Head at Zillow Offers, Jeremy Wacksman; and President of Media and Marketplaces, Greg Schwartz.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2018 年第四季和全年財務業績電話會議。今天與我一起討論我們成果的是 Zillow Group 共同創辦人兼執行長 Rich Barton；共同創辦人史賓塞·拉斯科夫；財務長艾倫·帕克； Zillow 品牌總裁兼 Zillow Offers 共同主管 Jeremy Wacksman；以及媒體和市場總裁 Greg Schwartz。

During the call, we will make financial forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance, operations and events. Although we believe the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee these results. We caution you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made on this call.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出有關未來財務表現、營運和事件的財務前瞻性陳述。儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們不能保證這些結果。我們提醒您考慮我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險因素，這可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異。

The date of this call is February 21, 2019, and forward-looking statements made today are based on assumptions as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law. This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible through the Investor Relations section of Zillow Group's website. A recording of the call will be available later today.

本次電話會議的日期為 2019 年 2 月 21 日，今天所做的前瞻性陳述是基於截至該日期的假設。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務，除非法律要求。此次電話會議正在網路上播出，您可以透過 Zillow Group 網站的投資者關係部分進行存取。今天稍後將提供通話錄音。

During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures. We encourage you to read our financial results press release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website as it contains important information about GAAP and non-GAAP results, including reconciliation of historical non-GAAP financial measures. In our remarks, the non-GAAP financial measure adjusted EBITDA is referred to as EBITDA, which excludes other income, depreciation and amortization expense, share-based compensation expense, impairment costs, acquisition-related costs, interest expense and income taxes.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論公認會計原則和非公認會計原則措施。我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的財務業績新聞稿，該新聞稿可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到，因為它包含有關 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的重要信息，包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調節。在我們的評論中，非公認會計準則財務指標調整後的 EBITDA 稱為 EBITDA，其中不包括其他收入、折舊和攤提費用、股權激勵費用、減損成本、收購相關成本、利息費用和所得稅。

We will open the call with brief remarks, followed by live Q&A. We have posted our news release and financial tables on our Investor Relations website. There will not be a shareholder letter this quarter.

我們將以簡短的演講開始電話會議，然後進行現場問答。我們已在投資者關係網站上發布了新聞稿和財務表格。本季不會有股東信函。

I will now turn the call over to Rich.

我現在將把電話轉給里奇。

Thanks, RJ, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today.

謝謝 RJ，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

I see many familiar faces on the line, and I see a number of new people who I hope to meet soon. We'll turn to your questions shortly, but I wanted to take some time here at the top to share how I view the rapid evolution of Zillow Group down the funnel towards the transaction and why we will win the race for online real estate 2.0.

我在網路上看到了許多熟悉的面孔，也看到了一些我希望很快能見到的新朋友。我們很快就會回答你們的問題，但我想在高層花一些時間來分享我如何看待 Zillow Group 在交易管道中的快速發展，以及為什麼我們將贏得線上房地產 2.0 的競爭。

Fundamentally, we are following consumers who have been uberized and have grown to expect magic to happen with a simple push of a button. We've seen this in travel, ride hailing, car buying, shopping, streaming video and more. And the time for real estate is now. We know from the massive scale of our own monthly audience that almost everyone is in the market for a new place to live. Since we first turned on the lights with the Zestimate back in 2006, we have been innovating to help movers turn their dreams into reality by empowering them with information and connecting them with the right real estate professionals. Yet many of these would-be buyers, sellers and renters stay put because the process of moving is daunting and scary. We are taking aggressive steps to remove the inherent friction that still exists in this complex, oft messy, process-heavy industry and unstick these ready-to-move dreamers.

從根本上來說，我們關注的是那些已經優步化的消費者，他們越來越期待只要按一下按鈕就能看到奇蹟。我們已經在旅行、叫車、購車、購物、串流媒體影片等領域看到了這一點。現在正是房地產的時代。我們從每月大量的觀眾中了解到，幾乎每個人都在尋找新的住所。自 2006 年首次推出 Zestimate 以來，我們一直在創新，透過為搬家者提供資訊並將他們與合適的房地產專業人士聯繫起來，幫助他們將夢想變為現實。然而，許多潛在的買家、賣家和租戶仍留在原地，因為搬家的過程令人畏懼。我們正在採取積極措施，消除這個複雜、往往混亂、流程繁重的行業中仍然存在的固有摩擦，並擺脫這些準備行動的夢想家。

This requires us to build on our strengths as the clear leader of online real estate 1.0 and move down the consumer funnel to the transaction, leveraging the power of our brands, audience, data, content, technology, partnerships, service and culture of innovation. As a result, the Zillow Group closed out 2018 as a very different company from where we started the year. The launch of Zillow Offers in the second quarter and the acquisition of Mortgage Lenders of America in the fourth quarter gave us the foundation to enter home buying and selling, and home loan originations, both for ZO and, ultimately, to streamline the transaction for many buyers, sellers and real estate professionals. Adding real estate transactions and eventually seamless mortgages to the Zillow Group portfolio begins to position us well for the new frontier and dramatically increases our TAM.

這要求我們發揮線上房地產 1.0 明確領導者的優勢，並利用我們的品牌、受眾、數據、內容、技術、合作夥伴關係、服務和創新文化的力量，沿著消費者管道向下延伸至交易。因此，Zillow Group 在 2018 年結束時是一家與年初截然不同的公司。第二季推出 Zillow Offers 以及第四季度收購 Mortgage Lenders of America 為我們進入房屋買賣和房屋貸款發放奠定了基礎，既可以為 ZO 提供服務，也可以最終簡化許多人的交易買家、賣家和房地產專業人士。將房地產交易和最終的無縫抵押貸款添加到 Zillow Group 投資組合中，開始為我們在新領域做好準備，並顯著提高我們的 TAM。

Buying and selling homes is not a new idea for Zillow Group. Lloyd, Spencer, the founding team and I founded Zillow with a dream of making buying and selling a home radically easier than it was in 2005 when we got going. Many of us were shopping for new homes triggered by rapid family expansion, and we marveled that 10 years after the launch of the graphical web, nothing had really changed in real estate. It was ripe for disruption. We already had helped rewire travel back in the late '90s when we founded and led Expedia so we could recognize a pattern.

購買和出售房屋對 Zillow Group 來說並不是一個新想法。Lloyd、Spencer、創始團隊和我創立了 Zillow，我們的夢想是讓買賣房屋比 2005 年我們剛起步時更容易。我們中的許多人因家庭的快速擴張而購買新房，我們驚訝地發現，圖形網絡推出 10 年後，房地產行業沒有發生任何真正的變化。顛覆的時機已經成熟。早在 90 年代末，當我們創立並領導 Expedia 時，我們就已經幫助重新調整了旅行方式，以便我們能夠識別一種模式。

Our earliest thesis and experiments that Zillow involved attacking the obvious problems at the point of the transaction and answering the question for buyers and sellers alike, what is that home really worth? At first, we were enamored of the purity of the auction model as the perfect price discovery mechanism by trial and mostly error, where we found out that people didn't understand home auctions and they certainly weren't ready to buy and sell homes on demand. However, in this process, we discovered the Zestimate, which became the backbone of our zillow.com marketplace and launched us down the road of an advertising-based business model where we had a content, amassed a huge audience and made money by connecting a small subset of our audience with professionals that wanted help.

我們最早的 Zillow 論文和實驗涉及解決交易時的明顯問題，並回答買家和賣家的問題：該房屋真正值多少錢？起初，我們對拍賣模型的純粹性著迷，因為它是通過嘗試和大多數錯誤來實現的完美價格發現機制，我們發現人們不了解房屋拍賣，他們當然還沒有準備好在網上買賣房屋。要求。然而，在這個過程中，我們發現了Zestimate，它成為我們zillow.com 市場的支柱，並讓我們走上了基於廣告的商業模式的道路，在這個模式中，我們擁有內容，積累了大量受眾，並透過連結我們的一小部分觀眾以及需要幫助的專業人士。

Aside from helping us build audience, quite conveniently the Zestimate has become a key competitive advantage for Zillow Offers because almost every home seller comes to see her Zestimate. Now squint and see how it ideally and eventually becomes a robotically generated live offer for your house. Though the market wasn't ready to embrace a live bid and an ask in every home in 2005 when we used to evangelize this notion, a growing population of people certainly are today. And just as we've seen in other categories, we expect this to become normalized in the not-too-distant future.

除了幫助我們建立受眾之外，Zestimate 還很方便地成為 Zillow Offers 的關鍵競爭優勢，因為幾乎每個房屋賣家都會來看她的 Zestimate。現在仔細看看它如何理想地並最終成為機器人為您的房屋生成的即時報價。2005 年，當我們宣傳這個概念時，市場還沒有準備好接受每個家庭的即時出價和詢價，但如今，人口數量的不斷增長確實做到了這一點。正如我們在其他類別中看到的那樣，我們預計這將在不久的將來變得正常化。

So we've returned to the excitement of our founding mission and are now innovating rapidly on the transaction. Zillow Offers is not just an experiment. We are already well on our way. Q4 results exceeded our expectations, and we have line of sight to accelerating growth in Q1. Today, we are live in 7 markets, and we already receive 1 Zillow Offer request every 5 minutes. That's $100 million in demand value per day. Our current estimate is we convert 3% to 4% of the offer requests we receive today, which we believe could add $20 billion in annual revenue in 3 to 5 years and ultimately deliver 200 to 300 basis points of EBITDA margin once we are at scale.

因此，我們又回到了創始使命的興奮之中，現在正在交易上快速創新。Zillow Offers 不僅僅是一個實驗。我們已經在路上了。第四季的業績超出了我們的預期，我們預計第一季將加速成長。今天，我們在 7 個市場上線，每 5 分鐘我們就會收到 1 個 Zillow 報價請求。這相當於每天 1 億美元的需求價值。我們目前的估計是，我們將今天收到的報價請求中的3% 到4% 進行轉換，我們相信這可以在3 到5 年內增加200 億美元的年收入，一旦我們達到規模，最終將實現200到300 個基點的EBITDA 利潤率。

Given strong consumer response and promising metrics, we are investing in Zillow Offers for larger scale and expect to be in at least 14 markets by the end of the year. We know the mechanics and fundamentals of real estate transactions are vastly different from the media model, but these 2 businesses complement each other like peanut butter and chocolate. Additionally, we are transitioning our media business model to get much closer to the transaction, turning advertisers into partners, who we work closely with to satisfy the high expectations of the uberized consumer we share.

鑑於消費者的強烈反應和有希望的指標，我們正在對 Zillow Offers 進行更大規模的投資，預計到今年年底將進入至少 14 個市場。我們知道房地產交易的機制和基本原理與媒體模型有很大不同，但這兩種業務就像花生醬和巧克力一樣相輔相成。此外，我們正在轉變我們的媒體業務模式，以更接近交易，將廣告商轉變為合作夥伴，我們與他們密切合作，以滿足我們共同的優步消費者的高期望。

Given that, let me now talk about Premier Agent, which is included in our Internet, media and technology segment. With the consumer as our North Star, the investment in Zillow Offers complements, with an e not an i, our commitment to our Premier Agents. Our PA partners are critical to Zillow Group for 2 key reasons.

有鑑於此，現在讓我談談 Premier Agent，它包含在我們的網路、媒體和科技領域。以消費者為我們的北極星，對 Zillow Offers 的投資補充了我們對高級代理商的承諾，而不是 i。我們的 PA 合作夥伴對 Zillow Group 至關重要，原因有二。

First, we know most sellers would likely not choose to sell their house directly to us via Zillow Offers, yet it's our mission to get everyone seamlessly into a place they love and can afford. Our partner PAs are not only necessary in fulfillment of this mission, they're fundamental. The same heightened consumer expectations of the on-demand economy are at play in PA as well. Our challenge is to rapidly innovate on software, business model and partner selection to ensure that our consumers have a delightful experience. There are miles to go before we sleep in this arena, and it's motivating.

首先，我們知道大多數賣家可能不會選擇透過 Zillow Offers 直接將房屋出售給我們，但我們的使命是讓每個人無縫地進入他們喜歡且負擔得起的地方。我們的合作夥伴 PA 不僅是完成這項使命所必需的，而且是基礎。消費者對按需經濟的期望也同樣在 PA 中發揮作用。我們的挑戰是在軟體、商業模式和合作夥伴選擇上快速創新，以確保我們的消費者擁有愉快的體驗。在我們入睡之前還有很長的路要走，這很激勵人心。

Second, PAs are our most established revenue stream and generates the cash flow that enables us to take a big swing on Zillow Offers as well as Mortgages, which, by the way, we view as payments just like payments are integrated into Uber.

其次，PA 是我們最成熟的收入來源，它產生的現金流使我們能夠在Zillow Offers 和抵押貸款上進行大幅調整，順便說一句，我們將其視為支付方式，就像整合到Uber 中的支付方式一樣。

To explain what's going on in PA right now, I'll note that we made some significant changes to the PA model in 2018 designed to improve the quality and agent response rates, and the rollout did not go as well as we intended. We allowed price to get pushed too hard with the auction-based model, and we miscalculated how important lead volume, even the less transaction-ready nurture leads, were to many of our PAs when we started more screening and filtering. This and some negative macro conditions caused elevated churn. We have made modifications to remedy the situation, and the churn rate is normalizing. Our PA response rate to a lead is up, which is great for consumers. Our nurture leads are up, which is great for agents. And PA conversion is trending up, which is great for everyone. That said, our PA growth rate was disrupted in Q4, and it will take some time to recover from the reduced Q4 MRR as you will see in our outlook.

為了解釋 PA 目前的情況，我要指出的是，我們在 2018 年對 PA 模型進行了一些重大更改，旨在提高品質和座席響應率，但推出並沒有按照我們的預期進行。我們允許價格在基於拍賣的模式中被推得太高，並且當我們開始更多的篩選和過濾時，我們錯誤地計算了潛在客戶數量（即使是不太適合交易的培養潛在客戶）對我們的許多PA 的重要性。這種情況和一些負面的宏觀條件導致了客戶流失率的上升。我們已做出修改來糾正這種情況，並且客戶流失率正在正常化。我們的 PA 對潛在客戶的回應率有所提高，這對消費者來說是件好事。我們的培養線索增加了，這對代理商來說非常好。PA 轉換呈上升趨勢，這對每個人來說都是好事。也就是說，我們的 PA 成長率在第四季度受到了乾擾，需要一段時間才能從第四季度 MRR 的降低中恢復過來，正如您在我們的展望中看到的那樣。

At the same time, we are testing a success-based business model for PA in a few areas -- in a few geographies called Flex. With Flex, we work with top-performing agents, teams and brokers who use Zillow Group's software and tools to build a partnership relationship versus an advertising one, where incentives are more aligned and we share the risks and rewards. In Flex, there are no upfront fees for agents. Zillow Group is simply paid a success fee only when a Premier Agent closes a deal. Early indications are that PAs like this mutually beneficial model, and we're seeing encouraging conversion rates. But it's early. As we continue to evolve PA, we will be working closely with our agent and broker partners to do so. The PA programs currently underway bring Zillow Group closer to the transaction and deliver a more seamless, real-time experience and service levels that today's on-demand consumers want and expect from a leader.

同時，我們正在幾個地區（稱為 Flex 的幾個地區）測試基於成功的 PA 商業模式。透過Flex，我們與表現最佳的代理商、團隊和經紀人合作，他們使用Zillow Group 的軟體和工具來建立一種合作夥伴關係，而不是廣告關係，其中激勵措施更加一致，我們分擔風險和回報。在 Flex 中，代理商無需預付費用。只有當高階代理商完成交易時，Zillow Group 才會支付成功費。早期跡象表明，PA 喜歡這種互惠互利的模式，而且我們看到了令人鼓舞的轉換率。但現在還早。隨著我們不斷發展 PA，我們將與我們的代理商和經紀人合作夥伴密切合作，以實現這一目標。目前正在進行的 PA 計劃使 Zillow Group 更接近交易，並提供當今按需消費者希望和期望從領導者那裡獲得的更無縫、即時的體驗和服務水平。

2019 will be an important transitional year as we educate current lapsed and new PAs about the mutual benefits of the new programs. Ultimately, the shift from advertising to a partnership model increases our agent-driven TAM considerably. Today, there is roughly $87 billion in commissions processed annually, but our PA revenue is just 1% of that. We believe the value we add is much larger and expect to realize a 3- to 5-year doubling of the IMT business, which includes PA.

2019 年將是重要的過渡年，我們將向目前已離職的 PA 和新的 PA 進行教育，讓他們了解新計劃的互惠互利。最終，從廣告到合作夥伴模式的轉變大大增加了我們代理商驅動的 TAM。如今，每年處理的佣金約為 870 億美元，但我們的 PA 收入僅佔其中的 1%。我們相信我們增加的價值要大得多，並預計 IMT 業務（包括 PA）將在 3 到 5 年內翻倍。

From the beginning of Zillow Group, we've had the benefit of operating a unique triangle-like executive framework that includes myself, Spencer and our Co-Founder, Lloyd Frink. For the first 5-plus years, I was CEO and then passed the baton to Spencer. Lloyd and I have shared offices in ZG HQ Seattle and have always been active partners deeply involved in the strategy and operations of the company. As we've been working toward transforming Zillow Group to be the winner in online real estate 2.0 and after careful consideration and many discussions, we've collectively decided it's time to turn our leadership triangle on its side and shuffle our seats. As I return as CEO, Co-Founder Lloyd Frink has assumed my previous title of Executive Chairman. And Spencer Rascoff will step out of the day-to-day but continue to be an active and influential leader in our future success as a member of the Zillow Group Board of Directors. This is a smooth leadership transition.

從 Zillow Group 成立之初，我們就受益於經營一個獨特的三角形執行框架，其中包括我自己、Spencer 和我們的聯合創始人 Lloyd Frink。在最初的五年多時間裡，我擔任首席執行官，然後將接力棒傳給了斯賓塞。勞埃德和我在 ZG 西雅圖總部共用辦公室，一直是積極參與公司策略和營運的合作夥伴。我們一直致力於將 Zillow Group 轉型為線上房地產 2.0 的贏家，經過仔細考慮和多次討論，我們集體決定是時候扭轉我們的領導三角並重新洗牌了。當我重新擔任執行長時，聯合創始人勞埃德·弗林克 (Lloyd Frink) 接任了我之前的執行主席職務。Spencer Rascoff 將不再參與日常工作，但作為 Zillow 集團董事會成員，他將繼續成為我們未來成功的積極且有影響力的領導者。這是一次平穩的領導層過渡。

I just want to pause a minute to acknowledge Spencer and his tremendous work and leadership today. I first met Spencer more than 15 years ago when Expedia acquired Hotwire in 2003, which Spencer also co-founded. I knew from the moment I met him he'd be a great CEO. He's worn many hats at Zillow Group, including CMO, CFO -- those were at the same time, by the way, which saved us a boatload in marketing expense in our early years; and then COO before taking over as CEO for me in 2010. He's an indefatigable and committed leader and a huge culture carrier. Under his CEO leadership, we went from private to public, we grew revenue from $30 million to $1.3 billion. We acquired 15 companies. We grew from 200 people to 4,000 employees. We repeatedly won Best Places to Work awards, and our brands have become household names. It's hard for me to express the depth of my gratitude for his innumerable contributions and what is still yet to come. Thank you, Spencer.

我只想暫停一分鐘，以感謝斯賓塞以及他今天所做的出色工作和領導力。我第一次見到斯賓塞是在 15 年前，當時 Expedia 於 2003 年收購了 Hotwire，斯賓塞也是該公司的聯合創始人。從見到他的那一刻起，我就知道他會成為一位出色的執行長。他在 Zillow Group 擔任過多個職位，包括首席行銷長、財務長——順便說一句，這些職位都是同時擔任的，這為我們在早年節省了大量的行銷費用；然後是首席營運官，然後在 2010 年接任執行長。他是一位不知疲倦、盡職盡責的領導者，也是一位巨大的文化載體。在他執行長的領導下，我們從私人企業轉為上市公司，收入從 3,000 萬美元增加到 13 億美元。我們收購了 15 家公司。我們的員工人數從 200 人增加到 4,000 人。我們多次榮獲最佳工作場所獎，我們的品牌已家喻戶曉。我很難表達我對他無數貢獻和未來的感激之情。謝謝你，史賓塞。

I know Spencer wants to say a few words.

我知道史賓賽想說幾句話。

Thank you, Rich.

謝謝你，里奇。

You're right. I played a lot of roles here at Zillow Group, and I'm excited now for my next one. We are at a transformative time at ZG. The world is finally ready for the seamless real estate transaction, and no company is better positioned to deliver. Rich, Lloyd and I have been partners since the company's founding in 2005, and now it feels like the right time to turn this triangle of partnership on its side.

你說得對。我在 Zillow Group 扮演了很多角色，現在我對我的下一個角色感到很興奮。ZG 正處於變革時期。世界終於為無縫房地產交易做好了準備，沒有一家公司比這更有能力提供服務。自 2005 年公司成立以來，里奇、勞埃德和我一直是合作夥伴，現在感覺是扭轉這種三角合作關係的最佳時機。

When I look at the company we built during my 9 years as CEO, I'm incredibly proud. Our team and culture are world-class, and helping Rich to continue to build that culture will be among my top priorities as a Board Director. I'm grateful for the relationships I've built with our employees and for their trust in me. I've also built relationships with many of you from the investment community, and I am grateful to our shareholders who've helped support our company's growth so far. I will remain a large shareholder at Zillow Group, and I look forward to helping support the company's next stage of growth from the boardroom.

當我看到我擔任執行長 9 年期間建立的公司時，我感到無比自豪。我們的團隊和文化是世界一流的，幫助 Rich 繼續建立這種文化將是我作為董事會董事的首要任務之一。我很感謝我與員工建立的關係以及他們對我的信任。我還與投資界的許多人建立了關係，我感謝迄今為止為我們公司的發展提供幫助的股東。我仍將是 Zillow Group 的大股東，我期待在董事會中幫助支持公司下一階段的發展。

Thanks to all of you. Back to you, Rich.

感謝大家。回到你身邊，里奇。

Thank you for everything, Spencer, and I look forward to both of our new roles as we plot the course ahead.

謝謝你所做的一切，史賓塞，當我們規劃未來的道路時，我期待著我們的新角色。

This is an incredible time to put my CEO hat back on. Zillow Group is like a start-up again but a really well positioned one, with $1.3 billion in revenue, a huge engaged audience and the leading brands in the industry, including Trulia, StreetEasy, HotPads, Out East, dotloop and our flagship, Zillow. Excitement runs high at Zillow Group right now. We are reconnecting with our original mission, and we sense how meaningful this opportunity is for consumers, partners and shareholders alike. I'm excited to talk more with you about all the exciting things underway at Zillow Group and the opportunities we see today and on the horizon.

這是重新戴上執行長帽子的絕佳時機。Zillow Group 再次像是新創企業，但定位非常優越，擁有 13 億美元的收入、龐大的參與受眾和行業領先品牌，包括 Trulia、StreetEasy、HotPads、Out East、dotloop 和我們的旗艦產品 Zillow 。Zillow 集團現在非常興奮。我們正在重新履行我們最初的使命，我們意識到這個機會對消費者、合作夥伴和股東來說是多麼有意義。我很高興能與您更多地討論 Zillow Group 正在進行的所有令人興奮的事情以及我們今天和即將到來的機會。

Before we open up to questions, I want to reintroduce Allen Parker, who joined as Zillow Group's CFO in November from Amazon, where he spent 13 years and was most recently Vice President of Finance for Amazon Device and Appstore. This is the first ZG earnings call for both of us, so go easy. But I thought it might be helpful to offer a little perspective on our share repurchase and earnings and financial reporting. You'll see in our press release that in addition to Q1 outlook, we included our current target estimates of our business looking out 3 to 5 years. We feel, at this time, it is important to share our view from where we sit today given the investments we're making.

在我們開始提問之前，我想重新介紹一下 Allen Parker，他於 11 月從亞馬遜加入 Zillow Group 擔任首席財務官，在亞馬遜工作了 13 年，最近擔任亞馬遜設備和應用商店財務副總裁。這是我們第一次召開 ZG 財報電話會議，所以放輕鬆。但我認為對我們的股票回購、收益和財務報告提供一些看法可能會有所幫助。您將在我們的新聞稿中看到，除了第一季展望之外，我們還包括了對未來 3 至 5 年業務的當前目標估計。我們認為，此時此刻，鑑於我們正在進行的投資，分享我們今天的觀點非常重要。

Also with me today are Jeremy Wacksman, who wears several hats, including Co-President of Zillow Offers; and Greg Schwartz, who heads our Internet, Media & Technology segment, which includes PA, Rentals and Mortgages. I've been working closely with both of them for over 10 years.

今天和我在一起的還有 Jeremy Wacksman，他身兼數職，包括 Zillow Offers 聯合總裁； Greg Schwartz 負責我們的網路、媒體和技術部門，其中包括 PA、租賃和抵押貸款。我與他們兩人密切合作超過 10 年。

With that, operator, we'll open up to questions.

接線員，接下來我們將提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ron Josey with JMP Securities.

（操作員指令）我們的第一個問題來自 JMP 證券的 Ron Josey。

Rich, welcome back to the CEO seat. Although I know you've always been involved. And Spencer, glad to see you'll still be on the board here. So I want to ask maybe a question for you, Rich, and then for Greg. Just Rich, as you return to the CEO role and what is an incredibly evolving company across IMT and offers and Mortgages, I know you said 2019's another year of transformation and investment. But just perhaps, can you talk to us how your focused approach might be a little different than in the past? And then Greg, on the core Premier Agent business, great to hear response rates, nurture leads and conversion rates are all up and improving with 4.1. But obviously, growth is slowing here, and it's very different in the past. So just love to hear your take on what keeps you excited and the broader Premier Agent opportunity going forward here.

Rich，歡迎回到執行長席位。雖然我知道你一直都參與其中。史賓塞，很高興看到你仍然是這裡的董事會成員。所以我想問你一個問題，里奇，然後問格雷格。Just Rich，當您重返執行長職位時，我知道您說 2019 年是一家在 IMT、優惠和抵押貸款領域不斷發展的令人難以置信的公司，這是轉型和投資的另一年。但也許，您能告訴我們您的專注方法與過去有何不同嗎？然後，格雷格 (Greg) 在核心高級代理業務上很高興聽到回應率、培養潛在客戶和轉換率均有所上升，並且隨著 4.1 的提高而提高。但顯然，這裡的成長正在放緩，與過去有很大不同。因此，我很想聽聽您對讓您興奮的因素以及這裡未來更廣泛的高級經紀人機會的看法。

Thank you very much. So from a strategic perspective and from an organizational perspective, we don't expect much change. The reason we kind of turned this triangle is because I have a particular penchant for and attraction to big swings. And we are really in the process of remaking Zillow Group right now and formulating a new mission, one where we're looking at the sky, looking at the moon and saying, "We want to land there. We want to walk on that thing." It takes a really big, hairy, audacious goal, BHAG, to get an organization to transform itself. I've been lucky to be part of transformations like that earlier in my career. I have been fortunate enough to be on the board of Netflix since it was private. And I see lots of parallels here as we take Zillow Group into the next phase with what we saw at Netflix, when we moved from DVDs by mail to streaming and then to originals. It's that kind of change. And so given all that and given this great, big new challenge, Spencer, Lloyd and I, in conjunction with the Board of Directors, all thought we'd rotate this triangle and put the guy in this quarterback who really loves taking these big swings and leading these big efforts. So that -- I'd say that is the primary inspiration. Send it over to Greg.

非常感謝。所以從策略角度和組織角度來看，我們預計不會有太大變化。我們扭轉這個三角形的原因是因為我對大幅波動有一種特殊的偏好和吸引力。我們現在確實正在重塑 Zillow Group 並製定一項新的任務，我們看著天空、看著月亮並說：「我們想要在那裡著陸。我們想要在這件事上走下去。」要讓一個組織實現自我轉型，需要一個非常宏大、艱鉅、大膽的目標，即 BHAG。我很幸運能夠在職業生涯早期參與這樣的轉變。我很幸運能夠成為 Netflix 的董事會成員，因為它還是私有的。當我們帶領 Zillow Group 進入下一個階段時，我看到了很多相似之處，就像我們在 Netflix 看到的那樣，當時我們從郵寄 DVD 轉向串流媒體，然後轉向原創。就是這樣的改變。因此，考慮到這一切，考慮到這個偉大的、重大的新挑戰，斯賓塞、勞埃德和我，以及董事會，都認為我們應該輪換這個三角，把一個真正喜歡做出這些大動作的四分衛放在這個位置上並領導這些重大努力。所以我想說這是主要的靈感。將其發送給格雷格。

Greg here. So question on Premier Agent program and why we're optimistic, which we are. Demand is as strong as it's ever been for this business. We will sell more in MRR this year, we have ever. Now by the nature of an MRR business, which is why the forecast is lighter than you'd like, we'd like, the nature of an MRR business, we dig a hole with elevated churn. You got to fill it up before you get to grow on a more normal level. So that's what we're actively doing today. Churn, like Rich mentioned, is coming back to normal levels. Haven't declared victory quite yet on that, but get through another month or so, we're feeling really good about what we're hearing from our customers, from demand, from the moderating business model. And then like you shared, the fundamental thing we're trying to achieve in the fourth version of Premier Agent, PA 4, was to enable this on-demand, more joyful, more predictable transaction experience for consumers. And we're doing that by achieving these levels of high connection between -- high real-time connection between agents and consumer that's flowing through an improved CSAT, customer satisfaction scores, that we track very closely. We're seeing very significant improvement in customer satisfaction in our computed rate of transactions, so lead to transaction, conversion is up. So signals are looking pretty good. Allen and I aren't declaring victory quite yet. We want to be conservative in the financial projections that we're laying out here, and we'll have a good year ahead.

格雷格在這裡。因此，我們對高級代理計劃以及為什麼我們持樂觀態度提出疑問。該業務的需求與以往一樣強勁。今年我們的 MRR 銷量將比以往任何時候都多。現在，根據 MRR 業務的性質，這就是為什麼預測比您希望的要輕的原因，我們希望，根據 MRR 業務的性質，我們會挖一個流失率較高的洞。在你達到更正常的水平之前，你必須先把它填滿。這就是我們今天正在積極做的事情。正如里奇所說，客戶流失率正在恢復到正常水準。尚未在這方面宣布勝利，但再過一個月左右，我們對從客戶、需求和商業模式的緩和中聽到的消息感覺非常好。然後，就像您分享的那樣，我們在 Premier Agent 第四版 PA 4 中試圖實現的基本目標是為消費者提供這種按需、更快樂、更可預測的交易體驗。我們正在透過在代理商和消費者之間實現這些級別的高連接來做到這一點，這種連接透過改進的 CSAT（我們密切追蹤的客戶滿意度分數）流動。我們發現，在我們計算的交易率中，客戶滿意度有了非常顯著的提高，因此導致交易、轉換率上升。所以訊號看起來相當不錯。艾倫和我還沒有宣布勝利。我們希望對我們在這裡制定的財務預測保持保守，我們將度過美好的一年。

And our next question comes from Brad Berning with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brad Berning 和 Craig-Hallum。

Jeremy Wacksman, maybe you'd be the right person to target this to. Given the $20 billion, 3- to 5-year target for the Homes business, can you talk about what you guys are seeing on Zillow Offers that gives you the confidence to talk about a target like that? And how fast can you grow these markets? And what kind of investments you want to be making in '19 and '20 given the opportunity for a land grab in this emerging market competitively? The follow-up is maybe to Greg. The related seller leads that come out of this, maybe you can talk about some of the initial rollouts that you're seeing out of the Zillow Offers leads, kind of attachment rates economics, how you're thinking about how big this business can be relative to that $20 billion-type target.

Jeremy Wacksman，也許你就是這個目標的合適人選。鑑於家居業務的 3 至 5 年目標為 200 億美元，您能談談您在 Zillow Offers 上看到的是什麼，這讓您有信心談論這樣的目標嗎？您能以多快的速度發展這些市場？鑑於有機會在這個新興市場上競爭性地搶佔土地，您希望在 19 和 20 年進行什麼樣的投資？後續行動可能是格雷格。由此產生的相關賣家線索，也許您可以談談您從 Zillow Offers 線索中看到的一些初步推出、附件率經濟學、您如何看待這項業務的規模相對於200 億美元類型的目標。

For sure. This is Jeremy. I'll take the offers question, and then Greg can handle the listings. Yes, I mean, as Rich talked about, we see just a massive demand from sellers. I think he quoted $100 million in value every day. That's a request every 5 minutes, and that's just in the 7 markets we're in. Let alone the dozen plus we plan to be in later this year. So I think we see a very large potential prize. And what we really see is incredibly strong consumer response to the offering. That demand signal comes from every seller, starting on Zillow, checking out Zestimate and asking for help with how to sell. Zillow Offers is obviously a fabulous way to do that. And as we scale the business, that's what we see that 3- to 5-year target around. That's also what we see the listings opportunity around.

一定。這是傑里米。我將回答報價問題，然後格雷格可以處理清單。是的，我的意思是，正如里奇所說，我們看到賣家的巨大需求。我想他每天都會報價一億美元。每 5 分鐘就有一個請求，而且這只會發生在我們所在的 7 個市場。更不用說我們計劃在今年稍後推出的十多個產品了。所以我認為我們看到了一個非常大的潛在獎項。我們真正看到的是消費者對產品的強烈反應。這種需求訊號來自每個賣家，從 Zillow 開始，請查看 Zestimate 並尋求如何銷售的協助。Zillow Offers 顯然是實現這一目標的絕佳方式。當我們擴大業務規模時，這就是我們所看到的 3 到 5 年目標。這也是我們看到的上市機會。

Yes, I'll take that. It's Greg. Yes, so pretty competitive long-term opportunity in seller leads. It's part of how we get to the $2 billion in Premier Agent revenue and IT revenue in 3 to 5 years. We are in the experimenting and in the invention phase right now. We got some miles to walk to figure out the compelling offer to a consumer, to a seller that will ignite through to get on the phone and engage with a Premier Agent. So it is not a material component of our 2019 forecast, and we think it will develop over time nicely.

是的，我會接受的。是格雷格。是的，賣家銷售線索的長期機會非常有競爭力。這是我們在 3 到 5 年內實現 20 億美元高級代理收入和 IT 收入的一部分。我們現在正處於實驗和發明階段。我們還有很長的路要走，才能找到對消費者和賣家有吸引力的報價，讓他們願意打電話並與高級代理商聯繫。因此，它不是我們 2019 年預測的重要組成部分，我們認為它會隨著時間的推移而發展良好。

And our next question comes from Maria Ripps with Canaccord.

我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps。

Allen, you are the newest person in the room. Welcome to Zillow. As you take on the CFO role, curious if you could share your thoughts about your objectives and goals. And in relation to your long-term target, can you share with us what you'll be focused on in '19 and beyond? It would be great to hear what you're prioritizing.

艾倫，你是房間裡最新的人。歡迎來到齊洛。當您擔任財務長時，您很想知道您是否可以分享您對自己的目標的想法。關於您的長期目標，您能與我們分享您在 19 年及以後的重點是什麼嗎？很高興聽到您優先考慮的事項。

Great. This Allen, and this is -- as my first call, I did want to take just a brief opportunity to say really excited to be here at Zillow Group at this moment in time. A lot going on, and I feel like that I have a lot to offer. So very excited. With respect to your question, I'd start out by saying I feel like the current position we're in and the opportunity ahead of us reminds me a little bit of the early days of Amazon when I joined, and we were just starting to increase our investment levels in too-big ideas. We weren't sure how big they'd be. It was AWS and it was devices, which I eventually went to be the finance person on. And I saw firsthand the importance of rallying the organization around these new high-growth opportunities without losing sight of the maintaining the core performance of your current business, which helps fund those big swings. So when I talk about specific priorities, I'll call out 3. My first one, and gets a little bit to your long-term question, is a focus on ensuring we are building good processes and plans on scaling our Home and Mortgages business to achieve these long-term targets. This includes developing input-driven models to both sides of the opportunity and to manage and monitor our progress. It also helps, looking further out, to identify the key innovation and processes required to reach the scale. And then with respect to our core businesses, I'm focusing on execution and leverage growth. To achieve the long-term targets, we need to prioritize our investments, digest where possible, and most importantly, reaccelerate growth. And just real quickly, the third point is really around that leverage and cost, we think, to increase our muscle mass around controllable spend. This is important for all of our businesses, both to leverage the core as well as, as we move into lower-margin transactional businesses. We're going to be building processes and initiating actions to go after this discretionary or controllable spend and start building that muscle today.

偉大的。這位艾倫，這是我的第一通電話，我確實想利用一個簡短的機會表達此時此刻來到 Zillow Group 感到非常興奮。發生了很多事情，我覺得我可以提供很多東西。非常興奮。關於你的問題，我首先要說的是，我覺得我們目前所處的位置和我們面前的機會讓我想起了我加入亞馬遜時的早期時光，我們才剛開始增加我們對大創意的投資水平。我們不確定它們有多大。它是 AWS，它是設備，我最終成為了該設備的財務人員。我親眼目睹了圍繞這些新的高成長機會團結組織的重要性，同時又不忽視維持當前業務的核心績效，這有助於為這些重大波動提供資金。因此，當我談論具體優先事項時，我會指出 3。我的第一個優先事項是專注於您的長期問題，重點是確保我們正在建立良好的流程和計劃來擴展我們的房屋和抵押貸款業務以實現這些長期目標。這包括為機會雙方開發輸入驅動的模型，並管理和監控我們的進展。它還有助於進一步確定達到規模所需的關鍵創新和流程。然後就我們的核心業務而言，我專注於執行和槓桿成長。為了實現長期目標，我們需要優先考慮我們的投資，盡可能消化，最重要的是，重新加速成長。我們認為，很快，第三點實際上是圍繞槓桿和成本，以增加我們在可控支出方面的實力。這對我們所有的業務都很重要，無論是為了利用核心業務，還是當我們進入利潤率較低的交易業務時。我們將建立流程並採取行動來追求這種可自由支配或可控制的支出，並從今天開始增強這種力量。

And our next question comes from Mark Mahaney with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬克‧馬哈尼。

Rich, welcome back. I'm almost tempted to ask you about online travel, but I won't. I love the use of...

瑞奇，歡迎回來。我幾乎想問你有關在線旅行的問題，但我不會。我喜歡使用...

You know a lot about it, Mark.

你對此了解很多，馬克。

Yes. I love the use of the term uberized in the financial press release. I think that's a first. I'm assuming that was your idea. And the idea of removing friction from real estate, from residential real estate and maybe from commercial at some point, I think, is a very noble idea. It's an extremely difficult idea. I know you referred to BHAGs before. Just talk big picture about how long do you think it will take to remove substantial amount of friction. I mean, there's obviously an enormous amount in there. There -- this is kind of why you're going into the Homes business. But that's the opportunity. But just talk about the timeline for removing friction. And Spencer, I got to ask you one last question before we lose you. Let's see. The question would be the unit economics of the Homes business, do you think -- is it -- I don't know if it's too early to tell this, but are there -- can the unit economics work just as a stand-alone Homes business? Or does it only really work when you're able to do that and cross-sell other things, title and Mortgages? In other words, just Homes, is that an attractive business on its own? Or does it really work when you bring in synergies with other revenue opportunities and profit opportunities?

是的。我喜歡在財經新聞稿中使用“優步化”一詞。我認為這是第一次。我猜那是你的主意。我認為，消除房地產、住宅房地產甚至商業房地產摩擦的想法是一個非常崇高的想法。這是一個極為困難的想法。我知道您之前提到過 BHAG。只是談談您認為需要多長時間才能消除大量摩擦。我的意思是，裡面顯然有大量的東西。這就是您進入住宅業務的原因。但這就是機會。但只是談談消除摩擦的時間表。史賓塞，在我們失去你之前我必須問你最後一個問題。讓我們來看看。問題是住宅業務的單位經濟效益，你認為——是嗎——我不知道現在說這個是否為時過早，但是單位經濟效益是否可以作為一個獨立的項目發揮作用？家居生意？或者只有當您能夠做到這一點並交叉銷售其他東西（產權和抵押貸款）時，它才真正起作用嗎？換句話說，僅僅是住宅，它本身就是一項有吸引力的業務嗎？或者當你與其他收入機會和利潤機會產生協同效應時，它真的有效嗎？

Do you want to start?

你想開始？

Sure. Mark, I am going to point that one to Jeremy. But as a director and major shareholder, I anxiously await Jeremy's answer. Jeremy?

當然。馬克，我要把那個指向傑瑞米。但身為董事和大股東，我焦急地等待傑瑞米的答覆。傑里米？

The answer is yes on a stand-alone basis. And if you look at that 3- to 5-year target we put out there, 5,000 homes a month, $20 billion annualized run rate, that has scale. You look at 200, 300 basis points of EBITDA margin, that's on the core business. That's before what you might call adjacencies or listing mortgage opportunities.

就獨立而言，答案是肯定的。如果你看看我們設定的 3 到 5 年目標，每月建造 5,000 套房屋，年化營運費用為 200 億美元，那就是有規模的。你看看 200、300 個基點的 EBITDA 利潤率，這是核心業務。那是在您可能稱之為鄰接或列出抵押貸款機會之前。

And the bigger we get -- the bigger we get there and the more density we have there, the more we can drive expenses down that Allen was talking about. And that actually feeds back in to increasing demand because we can lower fees. So there's a really interesting virtuous -- I guess, this is a virtuous cycle of sorts, but it's like traditional-scale companies. They're very strong traditional-scale companies, we believe. But back to your original question, Mark, that's why we're so excited because we found a short circuit. We found a way to -- it's not magical, and it's going to take a lot of time. It's going to take a lot of investment that I hope you all make with me. But we found a short circuit from a consumer perspective. All this angst that the seller had, that Susan the seller had about selling her house, how long is it going to take? What price am I going to get? Am I going to get all these people walking through my stuff, like in my house, where my kids are? It's like this kind of personal, emotional invasion, uncertainty. It just means that there's all this pent-up demand. And when we first got going with Zillow Offers, which started out as a small experiment, we were inundated with consumer demand. And so this is it. We found the short circuit. So yes, it's going to be hard. You're right, and I understand people's skepticism. But we have found one really interesting path over this chasm of despair, okay? Another path, however, right next to it is fully uberizing and automating the guided path. So we know a lot of people won't do ZO, all right, but we still want to get everybody to that better place. And so Greg and his team and the product teams are hard at work, modernizing that process finally. We're super motivated, and we have line of sight to how we're going to do that now simply because we're so large, and now, we're getting into the transactions themself. So I'm like -- yes, it's a big swing for sure, but I'm pretty confident. I see it as fairly controlled downside on this because the existing business we have is a fantastic business, and we have a lot of growth to go even in that business as a stand-alone business. And so we have this unbelievable option on a giant TAM in the form of ZO and Mortgages.

我們規模越大，我們的規模越大，密度越高，我們就越能降低艾倫所說的費用。這實際上會導致需求增加，因為我們可以降低費用。所以這是一個非常有趣的良性循環——我想，這是一種良性循環，但它就像傳統規模的公司一樣。我們相信，他們是非常強大的傳統規模公司。但回到你最初的問題，馬克，這就是為什麼我們如此興奮，因為我們發現了短路。我們找到了一種方法——這並不神奇，而且需要很多時間。這將需要大量的投資，我希望你們和我一起進行。但我們從消費者的角度發現了短路。賣家蘇珊對出售她的房子感到如此焦慮，這需要多長時間？我要得到什麼價格？我會讓所有這些人走過我的東西嗎，例如在我的房子裡，我的孩子們在那裡？這就像是這種個人的、情感的入侵、不確定性。這只是意味著存在所有這些被壓抑的需求。當我們第一次開始使用 Zillow Offers（最初只是一個小實驗）時，我們被消費者的需求淹沒了。就是這樣。我們發現了短路。所以是的，這會很困難。你是對的，我理解人們的懷​​疑。但我們已經找到了一條真正有趣的道路來跨越這條絕望的鴻溝，好嗎？然而，緊鄰它的另一條路徑是完全優步化和自動化引導路徑。所以我們知道很多人不會做 ZO，好吧，但我們仍然希望讓每個人都到達更好的地方。因此，格雷格和他的團隊以及產品團隊正在努力工作，最終實現了流程的現代化。我們非常有動力，而且我們對現在要如何做到這一點有清晰的認識，只是因為我們太大了，現在我們正在進入交易本身。所以我想——是的，這肯定是一個很大的轉變，但我非常有信心。我認為這方面的負面影響相當可控，因為我們現有的業務是一項出色的業務，即使該業務作為獨立業務，我們也有很大的成長空間。因此，我們以 ZO 和抵押貸款的形式對巨大的 TAM 提供了令人難以置信的選擇。

And our next question comes from John Campbell with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·坎貝爾和史蒂芬斯。

Rich and Allen, looking forward to working with you guys. And Spencer, congrats on a great run. But on the Offers business, you guys have talked to the kind of ramp in adoption. I mean, that's been super impressive. You're getting a request every 5 minutes. I think you guys said last time you touched about 35% or so of the share in the Phoenix market. You got that in a couple of months. But just thinking about the long-term opportunity and adoption curve, do you guys think it's unreasonable to assume that, I don't know, one day, nearly every home seller comes to you guys first just to kind of get that risk-free offer and get a sense for the trade-off around selling direct versus going the traditional route?

里奇和艾倫，期待與你們合作。史賓塞，恭喜你跑得很好。但在優惠業務方面，你們已經談到了採用率的上升。我的意思是，這真是令人印象深刻。您每 5 分鐘就會收到一個請求。我想你們上次說你們觸及了鳳凰城市場大約35%左右的份額。幾個月後你就得到了。但只要考慮一下長期的機會和採用曲線，你們是否認為這樣假設是不合理的，我不知道，有一天，幾乎每個房屋賣家都會首先來找你們，只是為了獲得無風險的東西提供並了解直接銷售與傳統銷售路線之間的權衡？

This is Jeremy. I'll take that one. No, we don't think that's crazy. As Rich talked about the short circuit, that's kind of what we mean. I mean, the Zestimate is that place where every seller is already starting. And now, right next to that Zestimate is to get an offer button. And so now they have 2 options and -- well, now they have 3 options with that as well as an agent. So that's really what makes this thing go is every seller is scared to get started. And they're starting here, and they want to know how to sell. And that's what makes these 2 businesses work so well together is regardless if we buy their house via Zillow Offers or if we help them with a great Premier Agent, we're helping them sell. We're helping them get across that chasm Rich talked about.

這是傑里米。我會接受那個。不，我們認為這並不瘋狂。正如里奇談到短路時，這就是我們的意思。我的意思是，Zestimate 是每個賣家都已經開始的地方。現在，在 Zestimate 旁邊有一個報價按鈕。所以現在他們有 2 個選擇，而且——好吧，現在他們有 3 個選擇以及經紀人。所以這件事真正的原因是每個賣家都不敢開始。他們從這裡開始，他們想知道如何銷售。這就是這兩家企業合作得如此順利的原因，無論我們是透過 Zillow Offers 購買他們的房子，還是幫助他們找到優秀的高級經紀人，我們都在幫助他們出售。我們正在幫助他們跨越里奇談到的鴻溝。

Okay. And then just related to that, can you guys maybe give us a sense -- I don't know if you can size this up, but just an idea about the ramp or kind of build up to sell-side revenue and listing rev over the next 3 to 5 years.

好的。然後與此相關的是，你們能否給我們一個感覺——我不知道你們是否可以對此進行衡量，但只是關於賣方收入和上市收益的增長或積累的一個想法未來3到5年。

Yes. We don't have -- we don't -- it's not time yet to give you formal guidance for the next 3 to 5 years for sell-side rev. Like I said, we see something pretty compelling here. It's part of how we get to this 3- to 5-year doubling of IMT. It's an important contributor. We got to do some -- we've got some invention to do this year to figure out what really delights the consumer and gets them on the phone with a Premier Agent. We've got -- I promise you we're working pretty hard on this, and we got some pretty compelling ideas. We got to get it done before we're going to forecast it.

是的。我們沒有——我們沒有——現在還不是為您提供未來 3 到 5 年賣方收益的正式指導的時候。就像我說的，我們在這裡看到了一些非常引人注目的東西。這是我們實現 IMT 在 3 到 5 年內翻一番的方法的一部分。這是一個重要的貢獻者。我們必須做一些事情——今年我們要做一些發明，找出真正讓消費者滿意的東西，並讓他們透過電話與高級代理商聯繫。我們已經——我向你們保證，我們正在為此努力工作，並且我們得到了一些非常引人注目的想法。在我們進行預測之前，我們必須先完成它。

Our next question comes from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny。

Just a follow-up on that last question. Related to the Homes business and just kind of sizing the opportunity that you think about. I guess, the numbers you mentioned in the long-term target, so 5,000 homes a month would be 60,000 a year. And I think you mentioned a 3% to 4% conversion rate, which I believe the math implies something like 25% or 30% of all existing home sales would kind of start with you guys having the opportunity to bid. Is that kind of the rough method you think about? And on that 3% to 4% conversion, what's the thought process? Or how do you get to that being the right level of conversion?

只是最後一個問題的後續。與房屋業務相關，只是衡量您想到的機會。我想，你在長期目標中提到的數字，所以每月 5,000 套房屋將是每年 60,000 套。我想你提到了 3% 到 4% 的轉換率，我相信數學意味著所有現有房屋銷售的 25% 或 30% 會從你們有機會競標開始。這是你想的那種粗暴的方法嗎？對於 3% 到 4% 的轉化，思考過程是怎麼樣的？或如何達到正確的轉換水準？

Yes. This is Jeremy. Two things on that. That conversion rate goes up over time. I mean, right now, our demand is still immense. As Rich pointed out, we're offering on a subset of those requests while we're constrained. I mean, our biggest constraint right now is market rollout, feet on the street, the ability to make offers on more homes. So you can expect those conversion rates to change as we get to scale. And so that's part of how that math works to get to what will be eventually a large percentage of homeowners making a request on their house and seeing if this can work from them.

是的。這是傑里米。有兩件事。隨著時間的推移，轉換率會上升。我的意思是，目前我們的需求仍然龐大。正如里奇所指出的，我們在受到限制的情況下只能滿足這些請求的一部分。我的意思是，我們現在最大的限制是市場推廣、上街、提供更多房屋的能力。因此，隨著我們規模的擴大，您可以預期這些轉換率會發生變化。因此，這就是數學工作的一部分，最終將有很大一部分房主對他們的房子提出要求，並看看這是否可以對他們起作用。

Yes. There's one conversion rate that sits above the 3% to 4%, which is how many people raise their hand and ask for an offer, right? So I'd say that's a huge lever. Indications are that it's pretty popular, and that as prices come down, certainly, more and more people will raise their hand and take the convenience over the alternative. I just -- that's it.

是的。有一個轉換率高於 3% 到 4%，這就是有多少人舉手要求報價，對嗎？所以我想說這是一個巨大的槓桿。有跡象表明它非常受歡迎，隨著價格的下降，當然會有越來越多的人舉手並接受替代方案的便利性。我只是——就是這樣。

And our next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自傑森·赫夫斯坦和奧本海默。

Guys, two questions, just back on Premier Agent. And I've been on 2 earnings calls, so I apologize if some of this was covered. With respect to kind of where we are, has churn kind of bottomed out from the Premier Agent relaunch? And then how are you guys thinking about macro housing affecting kind of the guidance for Premier Agent? Obviously, we heard -- Greg was talking about more optimism about the market, but you obviously came off aggressive in a rough fourth quarter. So maybe just help us understand how much of it is specific to the relaunch of Premier Agent versus macro? And then obviously, you're being very vocal about Homes. Has there been any pushback from Premier Agents about your expansion into Homes and how you -- to the extent that you're still aligned with them versus competing with them, et cetera?

夥伴們，有兩個問題，請回到 Premier Agent。我已經參加過兩次財報電話會議，所以如果其中涉及其中一些內容，我深表歉意。就我們目前的情況而言，客戶流失率是否因 Premier Agent 重新啟動而觸底？那麼你們如何看待宏觀住宅對高階經紀人指導的影響？顯然，我們聽說格雷格正在談論對市場更加樂觀，但你顯然在艱難的第四季表現得很激進。那麼也許只是幫助我們了解有多少是特定於 Premier Agent 與巨集的重新啟動？顯然，您對 Homes 的看法非常直言不諱。高級代理商是否對您向 Homes 領域的擴張以及您如何與他們保持一致而不是與他們競爭等方面存在任何阻力？

Sure, I'll grab that. It's Greg. So quick one, yes. Churn is returning to normal. We haven't had enough runway yet to declare victory on it, but we're feeling pretty positive. That was the first question. I think your second question...

當然，我會抓住它。是格雷格。這麼快，是的。客戶流失正在恢復正常。我們還沒有足夠的跑道來宣布勝利，但我們感覺非常積極。這是第一個問題。我認為你的第二個問題...

Agents and Homes.

代理和家園。

On macro.

宏觀上。

Oh, pushback. Here's the push, our Premier Agents want to partner with us on Zillow Offers. They want to represent us on transactions. They want to help us invest on seller listings. Listings drive a lot of power and authority in local markets, and they're looking for opportunity. I haven't had any real significant pushback beyond those who want us to move a little faster so they can get on this horse and ride it. Our relationships with the Premier Agents are warm and are scaling, and we're as -- is dedicated to building those partnerships as we ever have been. And it's well received. The question on housing market, undoubtedly, appreciation is slowing in many, many markets, almost all markets. And inventory is increasing, but volume isn't. We still need more homes for first-time homebuyers. The builders still need to bring more lots online and do it affordably. They're pushing on margin there. And so we're not seeing headwinds from --- in the PA business from macro in 2019.

噢，反擊。我們的高級代理商希望在 Zillow Offers 上與我們合作。他們想代表我們進行交易。他們想幫助我們投資賣家名單。上市在當地市場帶來了極大的權力和權威，他們正在尋找機會。除了那些希望我們動作快一點以便他們能夠騎上這匹馬的人之外，我沒有遇到任何真正重大的阻力。我們與高階代理商的關係非常密切，並且正在擴大，我們一如既往地致力於建立這些合作夥伴關係。並且很受歡迎。毫無疑問，房地產市場的問題是，許多市場、幾乎所有市場的升值速度都在放緩。庫存在增加，但數量卻沒有增加。我們仍然需要為首次購屋者提供更多住房。建築商仍需要將更多地塊上線並以經濟實惠的方式進行。他們正在那裡提高利潤。因此，我們沒有看到 2019 年宏觀 PA 業務面臨阻力。

And our next question comes from Lloyd Walmsley with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的勞埃德·沃爾姆斯利。

I have 2. I guess, the first one is for Rich, and then the second one, a jump ball. So Rich, I'm wondering if you see a path for Zillow Offers to ultimately shift back to becoming more of an asset-light marketplace, where you're less involved as a principal and more of a platform taking on a fee, similar to how the business kind of started and maybe give us some more broad color on kind of how you see that side of the business. And then the second one would just be on the Homes segment. Was curious how you guys see the competitive dynamics and the industry structure there ultimately impacting margins there. I would assume most people who look to get an offer on the most valuable asset they own look to get one from multiple platforms, which maybe drives competition in ways that aren't similar to the core media business. So the question would just be how do you see competitive dynamics in the Homes segment evolving? And how do you see the durability of unit economics in a competitive market?

我有兩個。我猜，第一個是給里奇的，第二個是跳球。如此富有，我想知道您是否認為 Zillow Offers 最終會轉變為一個輕資產市場，在這個市場中，您作為委託人的參與程度會減少，而更多的是一個收取費用的平台，類似於業務是如何開始的，也許可以讓我們了解您如何看待業務的這一方面。然後第二個只是在家庭領域。我很好奇你們如何看待那裡的競爭動態和產業結構最終影響那裡的利潤。我認為大多數希望獲得自己所擁有的最有價值資產的報價的人都希望從多個平台獲得一個報價，這可能會以與核心媒體業務不同的方式推動競爭。因此，問題是您如何看待住宅領域的競爭動態演變？您如何看待競爭市場中單位經濟效益的持久性？

Okay. Lloyd, yes, I'll start. We're not really contemplating the marketplace model right now. I don't know that when Amazon got going, they were contemplating the third-party seller model either. So I don't want to close down strategic possibility in the future. Job #1 is to get scale and to get those scale economies working. We think our access to capital will be unrivaled. And so we think our access to customers will be unrivaled from an acquisition cost perspective. We think we have a lot of built-in advantages here. I get your point about, "Hey, isn't money just money?" But I think in any industry you look, when you think a product is just a product, you realize that brands matter and trust matters. And especially with such a big transaction, people want to work with a brand and a company they know and trust and love. And so we're going at this without the intention of going to a marketplace model on this particular thing. I'll add one more thing, and that is I'm very excited about the optionality that has opened up as we head towards the transaction, okay? There is a flourishing of creativity and innovation at the real estate transaction right now, both the rental transaction and the home transaction. You see lots of activity and start-ups doing all kinds of things that when you hear the pitch you're like, "What? "You're -- we work for residential. We'll buy the house, we'll turn it into an Airbnb on the side, and we'll lower your monthly payment and rent because we're doing and turning it into an Airbnb." There's tons of really interesting innovation happening around real estate right now, and finally. And one of the wonderful things about our move into Zillow Offers is that it opens up a world of interesting possibilities for how to innovate a transaction to satisfy the needs of what the seller, the buyer, the renter and the mortgage shopper wants. So I believe this is not the end of innovation. This is the beginning of innovation around this concept. I don't remember the second part. I think it was...

好的。勞埃德，是的，我要開始了。我們現在並沒有真正考慮市場模式。我不知道亞馬遜剛起步時是否也在考慮第三方賣家模式。所以我不想關閉未來的戰略可能性。第一項工作是擴大規模並使規模經濟發揮作用。我們認為我們獲得資本的管道將是無與倫比的。因此，我們認為從獲取成本的角度來看，我們對客戶的訪問將是無與倫比的。我們認為我們在這裡有很多固有的優勢。我明白你的意思，“嘿，錢不就是錢嗎？”但我認為在任何行業中，當你認為產品只是產品時，你就會意識到品牌很重要，信任也很重要。尤其是在如此大的交易中，人們希望與他們了解、信任和喜愛的品牌和公司合作。因此，我們這樣做並不是為了在這個特定的事情上建立市場模型。我還要補充一件事，那就是我對我們在進行交易時所提供的選擇感到非常興奮，好嗎？目前，房地產交易中的創造力和創新蓬勃發展，無論是租賃交易還是房屋交易。你會看到很多活動和新創公司在做各種各樣的事情，當你聽到推銷時你會想，「什麼？「你——我們為住宅區工作。我們會買下房子，我們會把它變成一個 Airbnb，我們會降低你的每月付款和租金，因為我們正在把它變成一個 Airbnb。」周圍發生了很多非常有趣的創新房地產現在，最後。我們進入 Zillow Offers 的美妙之處在於，它為如何創新交易以滿足賣家、買家、租戶和抵押貸款購買者的需求開闢了一個充滿有趣可能性的世界。所以我相信這並不是創新的終點。這是圍繞著這概念進行創新的開始。我不記得第二部分了。我認為這是...

Competitive dynamics.

競爭動態。

No, it's on Homes. This is Jeremy. I can get that. It's another flavor on what Rich said. The advantages we think we have that consumers will want are also the advantages that we think will allow us to rationally provide a profitable offering. That's the strongest trait. The brand trust we have, the access to audience, cheaper than nobody else. That audience then allowing us to resale and reduce hold times, the integration and internalization of mortgages and ancillaries, those same components that we think the consumer wants are also then the things that build the network effects to provide the strongest offering at a rational point.

不，是在 Homes 上。這是傑里米。我能明白。里奇的話又是另一種味道。我們認為我們擁有的消費者會想要的優勢也是我們認為將使我們能夠合理地提供有利可圖的產品的優勢。這是最強的特質。我們擁有的品牌信任度、接觸受眾的機會，比任何人都便宜。然後，這些受眾允許我們轉售和減少持有時間，抵押貸款和輔助設施的整合和內部化，我們認為消費者想要的那些組件也是建立網路效應的東西，以在合理的點上提供最強大的產品。

Our next question comes from Justin Patterson with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·帕特森和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

From the offers perspective, could you help provide more commentary in terms of how aggressively you're thinking of investing in that opportunity and the cost to getting towards scale. You did guide to a large Q1 loss in that business, but refrained from commenting on annual revenue and EBITDA trends for Homes. And then secondly, I wanted to tease out your commentary on estimates being a key advantage in the offers space. Historically, if you look at Zillow, there tends to be a large gap between your estimates and where list prices are market by market. So curious what you need to do there to refine that, if that's truly going to be a driver for offers.

從報價的角度來看，您能否就您考慮投資該機會的積極程度以及實現規模化的成本提供更多評論。您確實指出該業務第一季出現巨額虧損，但沒有對房屋的年收入和 EBITDA 趨勢發表評論。其次，我想梳理一下您對估價的評論，這是報價領域的關鍵優勢。從歷史上看，如果您查看 Zillow，您的估計與各個市場的標價之間往往存在很大差距。很好奇你需要做什麼來完善它，如果這真的會成為報價的驅動力。

Yes. So this is Allen. I'll take the first part of your question. So we are -- we did guide in Q1 an EBITDA margin level that ranged from negative 38% to negative 28.7%. We are not providing guidance out past that. But you can compare that range, EBITDA margin to Q4 actuals, which was negative 56.9%. But we will be in investment mode for a while, and we're going to grow as fast as we can. Jeremy had mentioned some constraints as we scale. We think this is an important business, and it's important to be there first. So we believe our most active view of Homes, though, is only one quarter out, which is why we're only providing the 1 quarter of guidance. The second question you had was with respect to the gap between the...

是的。這就是艾倫。我將回答你問題的第一部分。因此，我們確實在第一季指導了 EBITDA 利潤率水平，範圍為負 38% 到負 28.7%。我們不會提供超出此範圍的指導。但您可以將該範圍的 EBITDA 利潤率與第四季度的實際值進行比較，實際值為負 56.9%。但我們將在一段時間內處於投資模式，並且我們將盡可能快地成長。傑里米提到了我們擴展時的一些限制。我們認為這是一項重要的業務，首先要做到這一點很重要。因此，我們認為，我們對房屋最積極的看法只有四分之一，這就是為什麼我們只提供四分之一的指導。你提出的第二個問題是關於…之間的差距。

Zestimate. We could...

估計。我們可以...

Okay.

好的。

Yes, yes. Who's asked? Me or...

是的是的。被問到的人是誰？我或...

I don't know. Jeremy, do you want...

我不知道。傑里米，你想...

Zestimates accuracy. He's basically saying your Zestimates are inaccurate, so how can you base ZO off of this estimate?

估計準確度。他基本上是說您的 Zestimates 不準確，那麼您如何根據此估計來確定 ZO 呢？

Yes. And you'll see us in every market price based on investment, based on the local market opinion, based on our pricing underwriting model, and then ultimately, based on visiting the home with the seller. And so the Zestimate can be a great starting point in that conversation. It can also be a challenge in a starting point of that conversation. But the heuristics and the specifics about each house end up being the conversation around price discovery.

是的。您會在每個市場價格中看到我們基於投資、基於當地市場意見、基於我們的定價承保模型，最後基於與賣家一起參觀房屋的價格。因此，Zestimate 可以成為對話的一個很好的起點。這也可能是對話的起點的挑戰。但每棟房子的啟發式和細節最終成為圍繞價格發現的對話。

Channels are sustained now.

現在頻道是持續的。

And Greg. On the Zestimate, I don't want people to think that the Zestimate is inaccurate. The Zestimate is outstanding.

還有格雷格。關於 Zestimate，我不希望人們認為 Zestimate 不準確。Zestimate 非常出色。

For sure. I mean, approaching 4% median absolute percent error. And it's the most accurate AVM out there in the country across the board. And it is a fantastic tool for us to price off of and pursue [the Zillow Offers also.]

一定。我的意思是，接近 4% 的中位數絕對百分比誤差。它是全國最準確的 AVM。它是我們定價和追求 [Zillow 優惠] 的絕佳工具。

Yes. And you can imagine our motivation for accuracy on the Zestimate now just ratcheted up a couple of notches as well because we're putting in real money into this. And if we can really -- this is a dream. This is just an ideal that I'm holding out here. But if we can literally turn that into a live offer or a near-live offer on every home in the country, updated every night, well, that's like a big deal. That would be a big deal. Now we may never get there, that's just the BHAG, but it is a great design goal.

是的。您可以想像我們對 Zestimate 準確性的動機現在也提高了幾個檔次，因為我們在這方面投入了真金白銀。如果我們真的可以——​​這就是一個夢想。這只是我在這裡堅持的一個理想。但如果我們真的可以將其轉化為針對全國每個家庭的實時報價或近實時報價，每晚更新，那麼，這就像一件大事。那將是一件大事。現在我們可能永遠無法實現這一目標，這只是宏偉目標，但它是一個偉大的設計目標。

And our next question comes from Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的希思·特里。

Just curious on a couple of maybe more immediate things around the Premier Agent business. Given all the fluctuations that you've seen in conversion, in lead improvement, in lead generation as well as pricing, what's your latest thought on sort of where ROI is or is trending for agents in the program? And then as you think about priorities for this year, where is marketing to drive visits? I know visits is a metric that can have a lot of meanings with -- particularly as the business evolves. But wondering how you should -- or how we should be thinking about the growth that you expect at the top of the funnel as defined by that.

只是對高級代理業務的一些可能更直接的事情感到好奇。考慮到您在轉換、銷售線索改善、銷售線索產生以及定價方面看到的所有波動，您對該計劃中代理商的投資回報率現狀或趨勢有何最新想法？然後，當您考慮今年的優先事項時，如何透過行銷來推動訪問量？我知道訪問量是一個具有許多意義的指標——尤其是隨著業務的發展。但想知道你應該如何——或者我們應該如何考慮你所期望的漏斗頂部的增長。

Sure. I'll start. It's Greg. So profits and ROI for agents remain strong in the system. I'd point out that the follow-on question is why did we have elevated churn in the fourth quarter. And what we've found is the basic principle of psychology is not am I making profit, but what was I making before and what is now occurring. We pushed price a little hard, over 25% last year. And even though many of our customers had significant profit in their models, the cost structures in their lives and in their businesses that had assumed relatively stable levels of profits, and they were disrupted by it. We were building that trust with them. You got many Premier Agents coming back. And it's a lot of profit left in the system. Giving you a specific number, I think, is unwise. It varies a great deal by the business practices of our customers. And that's what Flex will help us address and normalize, and that's the point of this investment in our Flex test.

當然。我開始吧。是格雷格。因此，系統中代理商的利潤和投資回報率仍然很高。我想指出，接下來的問題是為什麼我們在第四季的客戶流失率上升。我們發現，心理學的基本原則不是我是否獲利，而是我之前賺了什麼以及現在發生了什麼。我們對價格進行了一定程度的推動，去年提高了 25% 以上。儘管我們的許多客戶在他們的模型中獲得了可觀的利潤，但他們的生活和業務中的成本結構假設了相對穩定的利潤水平，但他們卻被它打亂了。我們正在與他們建立這種信任。你們有很多高級特工回來了。而且系統中還剩下很多利潤。我認為給你一個具體的數字是不明智的。它因我們客戶的業務實踐而有很大差異。這就是 Flex 將幫助我們解決和標準化的問題，這也是我們在 Flex 測試中進行投資的目的。

This is Jeremy. I'll take the advertising question. I think we gave visits up 14% on the full year. And I think the PQ count was like almost $200 million, $195 million for the year across the brands. That's obviously, as Rich mentioned, a bunch of our brands really achieving significance and growing share. We'll continue to do that this year, and you'll continue to see our leverage on our ad spend as we've been doing. And you'll continue to see that pay dividends on top line growth. But as we hit larger and larger numbers, we're focusing as much on engagements and on converting those people to do more and more things as we go from just a media business to multiple businesses. And so as much of the focus of the dollar is about reframing and deepening penetration as it is top line growth.

這是傑里米。我來回答廣告問題。我認為我們全年的訪問量增加了 14%。我認為全年各品牌的 PQ 金額接近 2 億美元，1.95 億美元。顯然，正如里奇所提到的，我們的一些品牌確實取得了重要意義並不斷增長的份額。今年我們將繼續這樣做，您將繼續看到我們對廣告支出的影響力，就像我們一直在做的那樣。您將繼續看到這為營收成長帶來紅利。但隨著我們的人數越來越多，隨著我們從媒體業務轉向多元化業務，我們也越來越關注參與度和讓這些人做越來越多的事情。因此，美元的主要關注點是重構和深化滲透，因為它是收入成長。

And our next question comes from Tom White with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tom White 和 D.A.戴維森。

This is actually Phil Rigby on for Tom. I wanted to touch back on the feet on the street aspect of the Homes segment. Could you just talk about how you're looking at the capabilities in Zillow Offers, particularly with regards to purchasing and turning the homes around? And any updates you can give us regarding your efforts in scaling out your capacity in either inspection or renovation? And also interested in big learnings you can share about the process or any areas where you think you still need to improve.

這其實是菲爾·里格比為湯姆做的。我想回顧一下住宅部分街道方面的情況。您能否談談您如何看待 Zillow Offers 的功能，特別是在購買和周轉房屋方面？關於您在擴大檢查或翻新能力方面所做的努力，您可以向我們提供任何最新資訊嗎？如果您對重大經驗感興趣，您可以分享任何有關流程或您認為仍需要改進的領域。

Yes, this is Jeremy. I'll take that one. I would say the limiter on our growth is our operational

是的，這是傑瑞米。我會接受那個。我想說我們成長的限制因素是我們的運營

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

This is Jeremy. I'll start the answer again. I'm not sure we got cut off. Apologies, the line dropped. On Homes, the limiter on our growth is just our operational capabilities, our feet on the street. I mean, we got to build this business one market at a time with a lot of market-specific staff. And then on what we've learned, I mean, what we've learned is that it's early, and we're excited. Every market we go into has its own nuances. Every home has its own nuances. And so as we're building out the capabilities to service the immense demand we're seeing, we're excited to share more with you guys about what we've learned, but it's early.

這是傑里米。我再開始回答吧。我不確定我們是否被切斷了。抱歉，線路掉線了。在Homes方面，我們成長的限制因素只是我們的營運能力，以及我們在街上的腳步。我的意思是，我們必須在一個市場上建立這項業務，並配備大量針對特定市場的員工。然後根據我們了解到的情況，我的意思是，我們了解到的是現在還為時過早，我們很興奮。我們進入的每個市場都有自己的細微差別。每個家庭都有自己的細微差別。因此，當我們正在建立能力來滿足我們所看到的巨大需求時，我們很高興與大家分享更多我們所學到的知識，但現在還為時過早。

And our next question comes from Tom Champion with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tom Champion 和 Cowen。

First off, Spencer, congrats on a great tenure. Best of luck. Guys, 2 questions, please. On the 140 homes you sold in 4Q, it looks like there were 170 purchased in 3Q. And could you just comment on that result and whether you guys are tracking to the 90-day turn time in Homes. And then second, can you talk a little bit about just the rollout of PA 4.1? I think there was 30% of the footprint that was going direct to 4.1. How did that leg of the rollout go?

首先，史賓塞，恭喜你獲得了偉大的任期。祝你好運。各位，請教2個問題。在第 4 季出售的 140 套房屋中，看起來第 3 季購買了 170 套房屋。您能否評論一下這個結果以及您是否正在追蹤 Homes 的 90 天週轉時間。其次，可以簡單談談 PA 4.1 的推出嗎？我認為有 30% 的足跡直接進入 4.1。推出的那一段進展如何？

Yes. This is Jeremy. I'll take Homes, and Greg will take PA. So on the inventory, you're right. We saw 141 sold in 4Q. And obviously, as we're scaling, you're going to continue to see that inventory level grow because we're going to buy more each month than we're selling from the previous cohort. So it's going to be hard for you to model hold time on a vintage basis. We're really pleased with what we're seeing. Obviously, we underwrite every home to its own case of hold time. And as we're investing at scale, we're being as aggressive as we can there. But we're pleased with what we're seeing so far. And you should expect to see fluctuations in that as we scale and as we're solving for scale and for getting into more markets. And then Greg, on PA?

是的。這是傑里米。我會選 Homes，Greg 會選 PA。所以在庫存方面，你是對的。我們看到第四季售出了 141 套。顯然，隨著我們規模的擴大，您將繼續看到庫存水準成長，因為我們每個月購買的產品將多於上一批產品的銷售量。因此，您將很難在年份的基礎上對保持時間進行建模。我們對所看到的感到非常滿意。顯然，我們為每個家庭提供了各自的保留時間。當我們進行大規模投資時，我們會盡可能積極進取。但我們對目前所看到的情況感到滿意。隨著我們規模的擴大以及我們解決規模問題和進入更多市場的問題，您應該預料到會出現波動。然後格雷格，在賓州？

Yes. Happy to address 4.1. So 4.1 is 100% deployed today. That was -- those improvements in the Premier Agent program, which were principally around allowing our Premier Agents and teams to opt to take their nurture leads. Those leads then get qualified for live connection. Those were pushed live in the fourth quarter. That quelled some of the concern about volume. And then that's why we're seeing this more moderated rate of churn and improvement in the business -- in the line of the business. So 4.1 is fully deployed, and we're working forward to what's next. And what's next principally is a focus on iterating on Flex and some of the exciting progress we're making there which isn't yet in the model for the year for 2019. But we're going to learn a lot and I think made a lot of progress.

是的。很高興能解決 4.1 問題。所以今天 4.1 已 100% 部署。那就是——高級經紀人計劃的改進，主要是允許我們的高級經紀人和團隊選擇培養領導。然後，這些潛在客戶就有資格進行即時連線。這些在第四季上線。這平息了一些人對成交量的擔憂。這就是為什麼我們看到業務線的流失率和改善程度更加緩和。4.1 已全面部署，我們正在努力進行下一步工作。接下來主要關注 Flex 的迭代以及我們正在取得的一些令人興奮的進展，這些進展尚未包含在 2019 年的模型中。但我們會學到很多東西，我認為我們會取得很多進展。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session for today's call. I would now like to turn the call back over to Rich Barton, CEO, for any further remarks.

女士們先生們，今天的電話問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回執行長里奇·巴頓 (Rich Barton)，以徵求進一步意見。

Thanks, again, for your time again folks.

再次感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間。

As we've discussed, we are in the middle of a critical transformation that is reshaping our company and redefining the rules of real estate as we know them. By moving into transactions, Zillow Group will cover the entire consumer home shopping funnel top to bottom, giving today's on-demand consumers a full spectrum of options to shop, engage, transact on their terms. By transitioning our relationship with agents from advertisers to real partners, we better align our mutual goals and incentives and cooperate to delight our shared customers. This all makes us well positioned to unstick those shoppers ready to follow their dreams and getting to a place they love and can afford.

正如我們所討論的，我們正處於一場關鍵的轉型之中，這場轉型正在重塑我們的公司，並重新定義我們所知的房地產規則。透過進入交易領域，Zillow Group 將自上而下涵蓋整個消費者家庭購物管道，為當今的按需消費者提供全方位的選擇，讓他們按照自己的條件進行購物、參與和交易。透過將我們與代理商的關係從廣告商轉變為真正的合作夥伴，我們可以更好地調整我們的共同目標和激勵措施，並透過合作來取悅我們共同的客戶。這一切使我們能夠很好地吸引那些準備追尋夢想並到達他們喜愛且負擔得起的地方的購物者。

Finally, just to restate, I know Zillow Group's aggressive expansion has not just evolved our business model, it's affected your Excel models. We've added a high-revenue, low-margin business that requires large investment and distributed operations to our proven, high-margin media business that you know and love. And that can be unsettling, especially when our execution on the core business has been bumpy. It was unsettling for us, too, initially, but we came to believe the prize was quite large, and further, it was a strategic necessity. This is where consumers are heading, and they'll ultimately get what they want with or without us. We decided to lead them there. Can you imagine if Netflix had just ignored streaming?

最後，重申一下，我知道 Zillow Group 的積極擴張不僅發展了我們的商業模式，還影響了您的 Excel 模式。我們在您熟悉且喜愛的經過驗證的高利潤媒體業務中添加了一項需要大量投資和分散式營運的高收入、低利潤業務。這可能會令人不安，尤其是當我們在核心業務上的執行情況並不順利時。最初，這也讓我們感到不安，但我們開始相信，這個獎勵是相當大的，而且，這是策略上的必要性。這就是消費者的發展方向，無論有沒有我們，他們最終都會得到他們想要的東西。我們決定帶他們去那裡。你能想像如果 Netflix 忽略了串流媒體的話會怎麼樣嗎？

You can probably tell I'm excited. I hope you are, too. Thank you in advance for keeping an open mind and for giving us a chance to show you what we see. We value your counsel, and I look forward to our upcoming conversations.

你可能看得出來我很興奮。我希望你也是。預先感謝您保持開放的態度並給我們機會向您展示我們所看到的。我們重視您的建議，我期待我們即將進行的對話。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude today's program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。今天的節目到此結束，大家可以斷線了。祝大家有美好的一天。