Zillow Group Inc (Z) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Zillow Group First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow 集團 2019 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to RJ Jones, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 RJ Jones。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon and welcome to Zillow Group's First Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2019 年第一季財務業績電話會議。

Joining me today to discuss our results are Zillow Group's Co-Founder and CEO, Rich Barton; CFO, Allen Parker; Zillow Brand President and Co-Head of Zillow Offers, Jeremy Wacksman; and President of Media and Marketplaces, Greg Schwartz.

今天與我一起討論我們成果的是 Zillow Group 共同創辦人兼執行長 Rich Barton；財務長艾倫·帕克； Zillow 品牌總裁兼 Zillow Offers 共同主管 Jeremy Wacksman；以及媒體和市場總裁 Greg Schwartz。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance, operations and events.

在電話會議期間，我們將就未來的財務表現、營運和事件做出前瞻性陳述。

Although we believe the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee these results.

儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們不能保證這些結果。

We caution you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made on this call.

我們提醒您考慮我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險因素，這可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異。

The date of this call is May 9, 2019, and forward-looking statements made today are based on assumptions as of this date.

本次電話會議的日期為 2019 年 5 月 9 日，今天所做的前瞻性陳述是基於截至該日期的假設。

We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務，除非法律要求。

This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible through the Investor Relations section of Zillow Group's website.

此次電話會議正在網路上播出，您可以透過 Zillow Group 網站的投資者關係部分進行存取。

A recording of the call will be available later today.

今天稍後將提供通話錄音。

During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論公認會計原則和非公認會計原則措施。

We encourage you to read our financial results press release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website as it contains important information about our GAAP and non-GAAP results, including reconciliation of historical non-GAAP financial measures.

我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的財務業績新聞稿，該新聞稿可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到，因為它包含有關我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的重要信息，包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調節。

In our remarks, the non-GAAP financial measure adjusted EBITDA is referred to as EBITDA, which excludes other income, depreciation and amortization expense, share-based compensation expense, acquisition-related costs, interest expense and income taxes.

在我們的評論中，非公認會計準則財務指標調整後的 EBITDA 稱為 EBITDA，其中不包括其他收入、折舊和攤提費用、股權激勵費用、收購相關成本、利息費用和所得稅。

We have posted our quarterly shareholder letter and financial tables on our Investor Relations website.

我們已在投資者關係網站上發布了季度股東信和財務表格。

We will open the call with brief remarks, followed by live Q&A.

我們將以簡短的演講開始電話會議，然後進行現場問答。

I will now turn the call over to Rich.

我現在將把電話轉給里奇。

Thanks, RJ, and thanks to everyone for joining today.

謝謝 RJ，也謝謝大家今天加入。

Before we open for questions, I wanted to share a few thoughts.

在我們開始提問之前，我想分享一些想法。

As I reflect on the quarter, I'm reminded of a fantastically cheesy and popular TV show from the '80s called The A-Team about a former special forces unit that became mercenaries for good and would take on daring rescue missions and despite long odds would somehow pull it off.

當我回顧這個季度時，我想起了80 年代一部非常俗氣且受歡迎的電視節目，名為《天龍特攻隊》，講述了一支前特種部隊部隊永久成為僱傭兵，儘管勝算微乎其微，仍將承擔大膽的救援任務會以某種方式實現它。

Each episode, just as the tide was turning, cigar in mouth, Colonel Hannibal Smith played by George Peppard would turn to the camera and say, "I love it when a plan comes together." Well, our daring plan to transform the real estate transaction for the super-empowered, smartphone-wielding, uberized consumer is, in fact, coming together or at least is beginning to come together.

每集，當潮流轉向時，喬治·佩帕德飾演的漢尼拔·史密斯上校嘴裡叼著雪茄，都會對著鏡頭說：“我喜歡計劃制定出來。”事實上，我們為超級強大、使用智慧型手機、超級化的消費者改變房地產交易的大膽計劃實際上正在實現，或至少正在開始實現。

It's still early days, but Zillow Offers is working.

雖然現在還處於早期階段，但 Zillow Offers 正在發揮作用。

You'll see in this quarter's results that our Homes segment, where Zillow Offers resides, meaningfully outperformed the high end of our guidance with revenue of $128.5 million.

您將在本季度的業績中看到，Zillow Offers 所在的住宅部門的業績顯著超出了我們指導的上限，收入為 1.285 億美元。

And we are publishing Homes segment guidance range for next quarter of $230 million to $245 million, up from 0 a year ago.

我們發布的下個季度住宅細分市場指引範圍為 2.3 億美元至 2.45 億美元，高於一年前的 0。

We are leaning in to early success and are accelerating our investment in Zillow Offers.

我們正致力於早日取得成功，並正在加速對 Zillow Offers 的投資。

Today, we are announcing plans to enter another 6 markets by the end of Q1 2020, bringing our total announced markets to 20.

今天，我們宣布計劃在 2020 年第一季末進入另外 6 個市場，使我們宣布的市場總數達到 20 個。

In Q1, we received more than 35,000 seller requests, and that demand is rapidly accelerating.

第一季度，我們收到了超過 35,000 個賣家請求，而且這項需求正在迅速成長。

We now receive 1 request every 2 minutes, which is nearly $200 million in potential transaction value per day.

我們現在每 2 分鐘收到 1 個請求，每天的潛在交易價值接近 2 億美元。

During the quarter, Zillow sold 414 homes and purchased 898 homes, up dramatically from our Q4 transaction volume.

本季度，Zillow 出售了 414 套房屋併購買了 898 套房屋，比第四季度的交易量大幅增加。

To support Zillow Offers' rapid growth and expansion, we're investing to scale this business as we build a world-class operating platform.

為了支持 Zillow Offers 的快速成長和擴張，我們正在投資擴大這項業務，打造世界一流的營運平台。

We are currently pricing homes to breakeven at the unit level and expect profitability and unit economics will improve over time as we gain efficiencies with scale.

目前，我們對房屋的定價是在單位層面實現損益平衡，並預計隨著我們透過規模提高效率，獲利能力和單位經濟效益將隨著時間的推移而改善。

Longer term, we are also expecting to benefit from other adjacent businesses such as title and escrow, insurance, moving and other services we might explore.

從長遠來看，我們也期望從其他相關業務中受益，例如產權和託管、保險、搬家以及我們可能探索的其他服務。

In fact, in the second quarter, we are planting seeds for title and escrow services tied to Zillow Offers, which is another fundamental yet fragmented piece of the transaction we intend to streamline.

事實上，在第二季度，我們正在為與 Zillow Offers 相關的產權和託管服務播下種子，這是我們打算簡化的交易的另一個基本但分散的部分。

We've also been making solid progress in our Mortgage business.

我們的抵押貸款業務也取得了紮實的進展。

Last month, we rebranded the recently acquired Mortgage Lenders of America as Zillow Home Loans.

上個月，我們將最近收購的 Mortgage Lenders of America 更名為 Zillow Home Loans。

We've been focused on integrating this loan origination business into our operations while building out a digital mortgage technology platform.

我們一直致力於將貸款發放業務整合到我們的營運中，同時建立數位抵押技術平台。

In the future, we will more tightly integrate Zillow Home Loans with our Zillow Offers consumer experience.

未來，我們將更緊密地將 Zillow Home Loans 與我們的 Zillow Offers 消費者體驗結合。

This will take some time, but I'm encouraged by progress to date.

這需要一些時間，但迄今為止所取得的進展讓我感到鼓舞。

It's incredibly pleasing to see how well the whole of the Zillow Group team is performing to enable such rapid growth on our new bets.

看到整個 Zillow Group 團隊的出色表現，讓我們的新業務實現如此快速的成長，我們感到非常高興。

Zillow Offers is growing so quickly because it is standing on the shoulders of a huge real estate shopping audience anchored by the Zestimate that has been built up over 14 years.

Zillow Offers 成長如此之快，是因為它站在了以 Zestimate 為基礎的龐大房地產購物受眾的肩膀上，而 Zestimate 已經建立了 14 年之久。

And it is supported by profits from the Premier Agent marketplace that have made us look more courageous than we really are as we invent the future.

它得到了高級代理商市場利潤的支持，這讓我們在創造未來時看起來比實際上更勇敢。

Our Premier Agent marketplace performance is improving as planned.

我們的高級代理市場績效正在按計劃改善。

Consumer data that we monitor indicates that transactions and conversion are increasing, and agent feedback about the recent changes has been positive.

我們監控的消費者數據顯示交易和轉換率正在增加，代理商對最近變化的回饋是正面的。

We are also continuing to test new models that are tied to transactions versus leads.

我們也正在繼續測試與交易和潛在客戶相關的新模型。

In June, we will expand our Flex pilot and convert multiple ZIP Codes in Colorado and Connecticut to 100% Flex.

6 月，我們將擴大 Flex 試點範圍，並將科羅拉多州和康乃狄克州的多個郵遞區號轉換為 100% Flex。

As a reminder, in Flex, agents do not pay us upfront for advertising exposure.

提醒一下，在 Flex 中，代理商不會為廣告曝光預先向我們支付費用。

Instead, they pay Zillow a success fee only when they close a deal with a Zillow consumer.

相反，只有當他們與 Zillow 消費者達成交易時，他們才會向 Zillow 支付成功費用。

This is an important test as it aligns incentives and rewards with our agent partners to deliver superior service and close more transactions.

這是一項重要的測試，因為它將激勵和獎勵與我們的代理商合作夥伴結合起來，以提供優質的服務並完成更多交易。

While our initial Flex tests have been positive, we are being methodical in our approach.

雖然我們最初的 Flex 測試是積極的，但我們的方法是有條不紊的。

I came back as CEO mid-quarter, and this was the first full quarter for our CFO, Allen Parker.

我在季度中期重新擔任首席執行官，這是我們的首席財務官艾倫·帕克 (Allen Parker) 上任後的第一個完整季度。

While there has been a lot of change at Zillow Group of late, we're settling into a new rhythm as our leadership changes and market expansion are generating a level of excitement and energy that comes from being a start-up again, but a start-up with 14 years of experience and the size and scale to confidently embark on this new mission to transform the transaction.

雖然 Zillow Group 最近發生了很多變化，但我們正在適應一種新的節奏，因為我們的領導層變化和市場擴張正在產生一定程度的興奮和能量，這來自於再次成為一家新創公司，但一個開始憑藉14 年的經驗以及規模和規模，可以自信地開始這項轉變交易的新使命。

I'm really proud of the way the team is executing.

我對團隊的執行方式感到非常自豪。

Despite the bears pawing at the empty garbage cans in our backyard, one must only look in the front yard to see something astounding happening.

儘管熊在我們後院的空垃圾桶上亂抓，但只要看看前院，就會看到令人震驚的事情發生。

I know we still have much to prove to you before the fog is fully clear on Zillow Offers.

我知道，在 Zillow Offers 的迷霧完全消散之前，我們還有很多事情需要向您證明。

We must show you that we are not just buying dollars for $0.95.

我們必須向您表明，我們不僅僅是以 0.95 美元的價格購買美元。

The unit economics of Zillow Offers are justifiably under the microscope.

Zillow Offers 的單位經濟效益理所當然地受到密切關注。

But even at small start-up scale, the economics show promise.

但即使是小規模的新創企業，其經濟效益也顯示出希望。

Of course, we will gain efficiencies from here as we gain depth and density in markets.

當然，隨著我們獲得市場深度和密度，我們將從這裡提高效率。

This will be done while we simultaneously and rapidly roll out new markets, so we will try to be as transparent as possible to get your questions answered.

這將在我們同時快速推出新市場的同時完成，因此我們將盡力以盡可能透明的方式回答您的問題。

And remember, investments in our Homes segment are funded through our profitable core operations as well as revolving credit facilities that are backed by the home assets themselves and are nonrecourse to the company.

請記住，我們的房屋部門的投資是透過我們盈利的核心業務以及由房屋資產本身支持且對公司無追索權的循環信貸便利來提供資金的。

We also must you that we can profit from the multiple adjacent businesses that surround the real estate transaction.

我們還必須確保我們可以從圍繞房地產交易的多個相鄰業務中獲利。

It's early, but I have high expectations here.

雖然還早，但我對這裡抱有很高的期望。

Further, I believe that the really big win comes from integrating these disparate costly and complicated components into one integrated transaction experience.

此外，我相信真正的巨大勝利來自於將這些不同的昂貴且複雜的組件整合到一個整合的交易體驗中。

We are rapidly reorienting Zillow Group's talented team to make this dream a reality.

我們正在迅速重新調整 Zillow Group 的才華橫溢的團隊，以實現這一夢想。

We have miles to go before we sleep, but the journey has begun, and results so far are encouraging.

睡前還有很長的路要走，但旅程已經開始，迄今為止的結果令人鼓舞。

RJ said this at the top, but in addition to Allen, our CFO, recently from Amazon, back in the conference call room by popular demand are Jeremy and Greg, 2 of the folks who actually lead the Homes and IMT businesses, here to answer your questions.

RJ 在上面說了這一點，但除了最近從亞馬遜離職的CFO Allen 之外，應大眾要求回到會議室的還有Jeremy 和Greg，他們是真正領導Homes 和IMT 業務的兩位人士，在這裡回答問題你的問題。

Questions?

問題？

RJ?

羅傑？

Gary?

加里？

Sorry.

對不起。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tom Champion with Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Tom Champion 和 Cowen。

Congrats on the nice results.

恭喜取得好成績。

My questions are on the Homes segment.

我的問題是關於住宅的部分。

So maybe that's for Jeremy.

所以也許這適合傑里米。

So 1Q transactions and revenues beat our expectations and came in above the high end of the range.

因此，第一季的交易和收入超出了我們的預期，並且高於範圍的高端。

I'm hoping you could maybe unpack that outperformance and what were maybe the 1 or 2 or 3 key drivers.

我希望您能夠解開這種出色的表現以及可能的 1、2 或 3 個關鍵驅動因素。

And then 2Q guide implies another very healthy step-up.

然後第二季度指南意味著另一個非常健康的提升。

Any context here on how to think about what is driving that growth and maybe how to think about the balance of the year for modeling purposes?

這裡有關於如何思考推動成長的因素以及如何考慮建模目的的年度餘額的背景嗎？

Any comments on that would be really helpful.

對此的任何評論都會非常有幫助。

Tom, this is Jeremy.

湯姆，這是傑瑞米。

On the guide, I mean, it's still so early.

在指南上，我的意思是，現在還太早。

We're going a quarter at a time here, and so we'll try and give you visibility as we go.

我們在這裡一次進行一個季度，因此我們會盡力讓您了解我們的情況。

You can kind of look at our market entry pace that we've hit now and draw some lines from that as we try and continue to open markets there.

你可以看看我們現在已經達到的市場進入速度，並在我們嘗試繼續在那裡開放市場時從中得出一些結論。

In terms of what's driving the beat, it's really consumer demand, both on the acquisition side in terms of people wanting the service and then us just finding our footing on the market and bringing those homes back to our large audience on Zillow.

就推動這一趨勢的因素而言，這實際上是消費者的需求，無論是在收購方面，還是在人們想要服務方面，然後我們只是在市場上站穩腳跟，並將這些房屋帶回Zillow 上的廣大受眾手中。

We continue to just see very strong consumer demand.

我們持續看到非常強勁的消費者需求。

I think we crossed 100,000 requests since we've launched now.

我認為自推出以來我們已經收到了 100,000 個請求。

We're seeing 1 in every 2 minutes.

我們每 2 分鐘就會看到 1 個。

And that's just in the 9 markets that we're in to date.

這還只是我們迄今為止所涉足的 9 個市場。

The next question comes from Justin Patterson with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自賈斯汀·帕特森和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

And Rich, thanks for leading off with an A-Team quote.

Rich，感謝您以 A-Team 引言作為開場白。

I think we all needed that this afternoon, this spring season.

我想今天下午，這個春天，我們都需要這個。

This one is for Allen.

這是給艾倫的。

Just really wanted to talk about the difference on EBITDA this quarter versus your guidance.

我只是想談談本季度 EBITDA 與您的指導的差異。

And then it looks like you updated the full year outlook.

然後看起來你更新了全年展望。

Would love to understand what's better driving those changes around EBITDA.

我很想了解什麼可以更好地推動 EBITDA 的變化。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Justin.

謝謝，賈斯汀。

This is Allen.

這是艾倫。

Why don't I start with Q1.

為什麼我不從 Q1 開始呢？

So we did perform better by about $25 million versus the high end of our outlook on EBITDA, and I describe it in 3 categories.

因此，與 EBITDA 預期的上限相比，我們的表現確實好於約 2500 萬美元，我將其分為 3 類進行描述。

About 50% of the beat came from what I'll call nonrecurring.

大約 50% 的節拍來自我所謂的非重複性節拍。

There was a legal settlement that they were ruling related to pending legal settlement that allows us to adjust our accrual.

他們正在裁定一項與待決法律和解相關的法律和解，使我們能夠調整應計費用。

We had an accrual for this matter of about $4.1 million at 12/31.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們對此事的應計費用約為 410 萬美元。

And based on the latest status of the ruling, we were able to take that accrual down to an immaterial amount.

根據裁決的最新狀態，我們能夠將應計費用減少到微不足道的金額。

And the second piece of those nonrecurring was related to as we reviewed our processes around the new hire process, we made it explicit that some certain payments that are made early are actually earned over a period of time of initial employment.

第二個非經常性費用與我們審查新招聘流程相關的流程有關，我們明確表示，早期支付的某些特定付款實際上是在最初僱用的一段時間內賺取的。

And based on that change, we're able to recognize that cost over that initial period of employment versus recognizing it right away.

基於這項變化，我們能夠在最初的就業期間認識到該成本，而不是立即認識到它。

And so that's kind of a timing thing but did provide a benefit in the quarter and for the year.

因此，這是一個時機問題，但確實在本季度和全年帶來了好處。

And that is part of the outlook.

這是前景的一部分。

It's included in the outlook that we have.

它包含在我們的展望中。

And then the other 50%, just really quickly to touch on it, about 25% in Q1, the $25 million beat was just some ad spending rolling from Q1 to Q2.

然後另外 50%，很快就會談到這一點，大約是第一季的 25%，2500 萬美元的增長只是從第一季滾動到第二季度的一些廣告支出。

So that's really just timing.

所以這真的只是時機。

And the remaining 25%, it's just us gaining traction on some of our discretionary spend and improvements, including integration costs, as we look at the integration of MLOA.

剩下的 25%，當我們考慮 MLOA 的整合時，我們只是透過一些可自由支配的支出和改進（包括整合成本）獲得了吸引力。

And again, that's also now reflected in the outlook for the full year.

同樣，這也反映在全年的展望中。

The next question is from John Campbell with Stephens Inc.

下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 John Campbell。

Congrats on the solid quarter.

恭喜季度業績穩定。

Just one quick question for me on the Flex program.

請教我一個關於 Flex 計劃的簡單問題。

Could you guys provide a little more color on how that testing had gone thus far?

你們能否提供更多有關迄今為止測試進度的資訊？

And maybe if you could shed a little light on what your plans are maybe over the longer term.

也許您可以透露一下您的長期計劃。

Yes.

是的。

I'll take that one.

我會接受那個。

It's Greg.

是格雷格。

And thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Yes.

是的。

So now the Premier Agent business has stabilized nicely, we're focused on expansion in Flex.

現在，Premier Agent 業務已經穩定下來，我們將重點放在 Flex 的擴張上。

We're hitting the second round of testing, which we just announced this week, which we'll launch in June.

我們正在進行第二輪測試，我們本週剛剛宣布，將於 6 月啟動。

It's in Colorado and Connecticut.

它位於科羅拉多州和康乃狄克州。

And the big change there is focused on our most established, highest-performing Premier Agent teams, brokers and agents.

最大的變化集中在我們最成熟、表現最好的高級代理團隊、經紀人和代理人身上。

The prior round of testing was testing the pipes in the software with newer customers.

前一輪測試是與新客戶一起測試軟體中的管道。

So we're looking for very strong performance in this next round of Flex testing.

因此，我們希望在下一輪 Flex 測試中獲得非常強勁的效能。

And the big gain is it starts to allow us to look at the pipeline, the performance of leads and then direct that volume to the highest-performing folks.

最大的收穫是它開始讓我們能夠查看管道、潛在客戶的績效，然後將這些數量引導給績效最高的人員。

So we should see a nice transaction benefit that, with the post-pay approach, allows us to reclaim incremental profits seamlessly.

因此，我們應該看到一個很好的交易效益，透過後付款方式，我們可以無縫地收回增量利潤。

So that's the story there.

這就是那裡的故事。

The next question comes from Brad Berning with Craig-Hallum.

下一個問題來自 Brad Berning 和 Craig-Hallum。

One follow-up on the Zillow Homes segment.

Zillow Homes 細分市場的一項後續行動。

When you guys are talking about 100,000 type quotes, maybe you can talk about what portion of some of these initial markets that you're seeing of used home sales are calling to get a quote from you, what portion of those you're buying.

當您談論 100,000 個類型的報價時，也許您可以談論您所看到的二手房銷售的一些初始市場的哪些部分正在致電向您索取報價，您正在購買其中的哪些部分。

And have you made any progress on the seller lead generation side of the equation yet?

您在賣家潛在客戶開發方面取得了任何進展嗎？

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

On the sort of market buy box, we're pretty broadly penetrated in the markets we're in.

在市場購買箱中，我們已經廣泛滲透到我們所在的市場。

We walk into each market, and we rapidly expand as we got the operations online, and the opportunity for Zillow Offers is pretty broad.

我們走進每個市場，並隨著線上營運而迅速擴張，Zillow Offers 的機會相當廣泛。

If you think about the number of homes we would touch if we're in every market, it's around half the country that's in our buy box.

如果你想一想，如果我們進入每個市場，我們會接觸多少房屋，那麼我們的購物車裡大約有一半的國家。

So we're talking to most homeowners in the markets we're in that are in that medium price range in and around.

因此，我們正在與我們所在市場中的大多數房主進行交談，這些房主的價格處於中等價格範圍內。

And on seller listings, it's still early.

對於賣家清單來說，現在還為時過早。

We're focused very much on trying to figure how to have the right conversation with the customer, whether they sell to us or less traditionally with one of our great Premier Agents.

我們非常注重如何與客戶進行正確的對話，無論他們是向我們銷售產品，還是以非傳統方式與我們優秀的高級代理商之一進行銷售。

But we're focused on ideating on the right product there with our agent partners in our Zillow Offers markets.

但我們專注於與 Zillow Offers 市場的代理商合作夥伴一起構思合適的產品。

And that's just a handful for now.

目前這只是少數。

Jeremy, it sounds like Brad was asking about the funnel conversion metrics, too.

傑瑞米，聽起來布萊德也在詢問通路轉換指標。

Oh, sure.

哦沒問題。

On the request that we see, I think we talked about it last quarter.

根據我們看到的要求，我想我們在上個季度討論過這個問題。

We're still only buying 3% to 4% of the homes we see, and that's mostly our choice.

我們仍然只購買我們看到的房屋的 3% 到 4%，而這主要是我們的選擇。

We're mostly looking for the right type of home and where we can make the strongest offer.

我們主要尋找合適的房屋類型以及可以提供最優惠報價的房屋。

And we'll grow that and we'll grow that conversion as we grow Zillow Offers.

我們將隨著 Zillow Offers 的增加而增加這一點和轉換率。

The next question is from Maria Ripps with Canaccord.

下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps。

Rich, can you provide any more depth around the Premier Agent marketplace stabilization?

Rich，您能否提供更多關於高級代理商市場穩定性的深入資訊？

And what are some key metrics you're looking at besides agent churn?

除了代理流失率之外，您還關注哪些關鍵指標？

Maria, thanks.

瑪麗亞，謝謝。

Why don't I take that to Greg to answer.

我為什麼不把這個問題交給格雷格來回答呢？

Yes.

是的。

So after the Premier Agent has been launched, Premier Agent 4, we repositioned it as Premier Agent 4, made a bunch of the changes in giving more of those nurtured leads.

因此，在 Premier Agent 推出 Premier Agent 4 後，我們將其重新定位為 Premier Agent 4，並進行了一系列更改，以提供更多培育的潛在客戶。

So we increased the volume of leads to our customers.

因此，我們增加了客戶的潛在客戶數量。

And then we focused on improving the quality of those connections, those live connections by phone.

然後我們專注於提高這些連接的質量，那些透過電話進行的即時連接。

And the customer feedback on connections had been what we hoped for now that we've had a little incubation time in those connections, which is, gosh, they're starting to convert really nicely.

客戶對連接的反饋正是我們現在所希望的，我們在這些連接中已經有了一些孵化時間，天哪，他們開始很好地轉換。

So that's one piece.

所以這是一件。

The quality of the connections and how to achieve what we'd hoped for and the feedback is quite strong from investors and Premier Agents.

聯繫的品質以及如何實現我們所希望的，以及投資者和高級代理商的回饋非常強烈。

Just one piece.

只有一件。

The second is not all stuff that we break out, but gross sales volume is something we, of course, follow and then net retention.

第二個並不是我們公佈的所有內容，但我們當然會追蹤總銷量，然後是淨保留率。

That stuff is all hitting the forecast we provided you for 2019.

這些都符合我們為您提供的 2019 年預測。

No changes to the forecast.

預測沒有變化。

But the stabilization we're hoping for has arrived.

但我們所希望的穩定已經來臨。

And as you know, this is a SaaS business.

如您所知，這是一項 SaaS 業務。

So you dig a little hole and you have to fill it in until you grow.

所以你挖了一個小洞，你必須把它填滿，直到你長大。

So the same growth forecast in the third and fourth quarter that we led you to is what we're sticking with.

因此，我們將堅持我們對第三和第四季的成長預測。

The next question is from Ron Josey with JMP Securities.

下一個問題來自 JMP 證券的 Ron Josey。

Maybe just a follow-up on Flex.

也許只是 Flex 的後續產品。

And Rich, a bigger question for you, I guess.

我想里奇對你來說是一個更大的問題。

Just on Flex, I think, Greg, you talked about you're expanding to Colorado and Connecticut.

就在 Flex 上，我想，Greg，您談到要擴展到科羅拉多州和康涅狄格州。

In the letter, you talked about some impacts to revenue in 2Q in '19 from deferred.

在信中，您談到了遞延對 19 年第二季收入的一些影響。

Can you just talk about how you -- how we should think about or how you think about what the impact is?

您能否談談我們應該如何思考或您如何看待影響是什麼？

Because I think the full year, Premier Agent revenue was still sort of -- still pretty good, in fact, unchanged maybe at the high end, increase at the low end.

因為我認為全年，高級代理收入仍然相當不錯，事實上，高端可能沒有變化，低端有所增加。

And then, Rich, you talked about on Homes like efficiencies from here as you get from depth and density.

然後，里奇，你在《家》中談到了從深度和密度中獲得的效率。

Can you just talk about where you see those efficiencies?

您能談談您在哪裡看到這些效率嗎？

We look at, I guess, your first figure around home acquisition costs, renovation costs, holding costs.

我猜，我們首先考慮的是房屋購買成本、裝修成本、持有成本。

Any insights there will be helpful.

任何見解都會有幫助。

This is Allen Parker.

這是艾倫·帕克。

I'll take the first part of your question with respect to the impact of these Flex tests on our PA revenue.

我將回答您問題的第一部分，即這些 Flex 測試對我們 PA 收入的影響。

So with respect to the 2 markets that we're going to go into, our current guidance -- and you're right, we left the top the same and we actually took the bottom up a little bit on revenue.

因此，對於我們將要進入的兩個市場，我們目前的指導——你是對的，我們保持頂部不變，實際上我們在收入上稍微提高了底部。

It's included in that number, and it's not significant for the size of these 2.

它包含在該數字中，並且對於這 2 個的大小而言並不重要。

Yes.

是的。

And then I'll take at the second piece on Homes unit economics.

然後我將討論關於住宅單位經濟學的第二篇文章。

I didn't have to ask for that.

我沒必要問這個。

Thank you, Jeremy.

謝謝你，傑瑞米。

Scale efficiencies come across all those items in the cost line.

規模效率涉及成本線中的所有這些項目。

So it's going to come across buying and selling costs as well.

因此，它也會遇到購買和銷售成本。

It's going to come across renovation efficiencies and rehab return.

它將遇到改造效率和康復回報。

It's going to come across closing and faster holding.

它將遇到關閉和更快的持有。

So pretty much all the lines, when you get to scale on density, you'll see us improve leverage there.

因此，幾乎所有的生產線，當你擴大密度時，你都會看到我們在那裡提高槓桿。

The next question is from Nat Schindler with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林銀行的納特‧辛德勒 (Nat Schindler)。

Just looking at the charts on Page 5 and 6 on the home unit economics, I see on Chart 5, you're really pointing out interest expense being a little bit more than 1% on a per home basis.

只要看看第 5 頁和第 6 頁上有關家庭單位經濟學的圖表，我在圖 5 上看到，您確實指出了每套住房的利息支出略高於 1%。

Would you consider that to be a good placeholder that it will likely stay somewhere around that number long term?

您是否認為這是一個很好的佔位符，它可能會長期保持在該數字附近？

And is that inclusive of -- is that only inclusive of the homes that are actually sold in the quarter on a per home basis?

這是否包括—是否僅包括本季按每套房屋實際出售的房屋？

Or is that divided by the homes sold if it's -- there are some homes sitting on the market for longer?

或是否除以已售出房屋（如果有一些房屋在市場上停留的時間更長）？

And then I have a follow-up based on Chart 6, on the chart -- on the next chart.

然後我根據圖 6、下一張圖表進行跟進。

Okay.

好的。

This is Allen Parker.

這是艾倫·帕克。

Maybe I'll take the first part of that.

也許我會先講第一部分。

Yes.

是的。

So on a per home basis, it's coming at about 129 basis points of revenue for the home value.

因此，以每套房屋為基礎，其收入約為房屋價值的 129 個基點。

And when you think about the current facilities we have, we have 2 and we discussed them in the Q, they're about 6% interest.

當你考慮我們目前擁有的設施時，我們有 2 個設施，我們在 Q 中討論過它們，它們的利息約為 6%。

And our leverage right now, effective leverage is about 76% of the home value.

現在我們的槓桿率，有效槓桿率約為房屋價值的 76%。

And so based on our turns, this is probably something we'd expect, but there's going to be a lot of decisions to make as we think about ways that we're going to get capital or finance the assets over time and what we can do to reduce hold period.

因此，根據我們的輪流，這可能是我們所期望的，但是當我們考慮隨著時間的推移我們將如何獲得資本或為資產融資以及我們可以做什麼時，我們將做出很多決定減少持有時間。

So there's quite a few variables there, but we think this is reasonable based on what we would have expected at this stage, and then we'll continue to track it.

所以這裡面有很多變數，但我們認為根據我們現階段的預期這是合理的，然後我們將繼續追蹤它。

And I did want to just call out that yes, in this calculation, this is the interest related to the homes actually sold.

我確實想指出，是的，在這個計算中，這是與實際出售的房屋相關的利息。

Okay.

好的。

And then just going further down on the next chart when you do the at scale kind of calculation, you're using EBITDA.

然後，當您進行大規模計算時，在下一張圖表中進一步查看，您將使用 EBITDA。

And since you're always going to be leveraging these homes and as you get above, that really should take out the interest rate.

由於你總是會利用這些房屋，並且當你達到以上水平時，這確實應該消除利率。

So you take out the 130 bps basically and you're really looking at -- should we really think of this business as kind of a 70 bps to kind of a little less than 2% business at scale?

所以你基本上把 130 bps 去掉，然後你真的會考慮——我們真的應該把這個業務視為 70 bps 到略低於 2% 規模的業務嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think what we did say before is we're sitting for 100 and 200 basis points of EBITDA less interest at scale.

我認為我們之前說過的是，我們的 EBITDA 規模將減少 100 和 200 個基點。

So that would imply that at the low end, the 2, we have to have better turns, and so our interest rates will be slightly lower.

因此，這意味著在低端，即 2，我們必須有更好的周轉，因此我們的利率會略低。

So if you take the 200 to 300 before interest, or at EBITDA, prior to adjacencies and think about around 100 basis points of interest at scale, that's what we think is the long-term model.

因此，如果您採用利息前的 200 到 300 個基點，或者按 EBITDA 計算，在鄰接之前，並考慮大約 100 個基點的利息，這就是我們認為的長期模型。

The next question is from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題是傑森·赫夫斯坦和奧本海默提出的。

As we're trying to think about the fixed cost as you scale it out, is it fair to think about it on a per market basis?

當我們在擴展時嘗試考慮固定成本時，請按每個市場來考慮是否公平？

So as you add each market, there's a certain amount of fixed cost for Homes and Mortgages?

因此，當您添加每個市場時，房屋和抵押貸款會有一定的固定成本嗎？

So any kind of color where you can help us think about that.

所以任何一種顏色都可以幫助我們思考。

And then the investment cost for title and escrow, where will they show up in the model?

然後，所有權和託管的投資成本將出現在模型中的什麼位置？

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I'll take the first part of that.

我將採取第一部分。

You can think about each -- as we get to scale on the platform, each market will have a relatively modest fixed cost to open.

你可以考慮每一個——當我們在平台上擴大規模時，每個市場的開放固定成本都相對較低。

I think we've talked about a couple dozen folks in each market with a lot of assumptions being centralized on the platform.

我想我們已經討論過每個市場的幾十個人，他們的許多假設都集中在平台上。

Obviously, we're early days from that now, but that's what this will look like at scale.

顯然，我們現在還處於早期階段，但這就是規模化的樣子。

And then on the Mortgage business, our model is a consumer direct model with our -- overwhelming majority of our staff in a call center or in a few call centers.

然後在抵押貸款業務上，我們的模式是消費者直接模式，我們的絕大多數員工都在一個或幾個呼叫中心工作。

So there won't be much of a footprint or cost specific to markets.

因此，不會有太多特定於市場的足跡或成本。

Title and escrow, we're just kicking off.

所有權和託管，我們才剛開始。

It will be reported in the Homes segment, but it's so early, and the fact that we are just giving guidance one quarter out, there's really not much of significance included in that 2Q guidance.

它將在住宅領域進行報告，但現在還為時過早，事實上我們只是在一個季度後才給出指導，第二季度指導中確實沒有太多意義。

The next question comes from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny。

So my question also relates to the scale margin opportunity in Homes, so that 2% to 3% EBITDA margin.

因此，我的問題也涉及住宅領域的規模利潤率機會，即 2% 至 3% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。

So obviously recognizing a lot is going to change and there's certainly a lot of opportunity to leverage fixed costs.

顯然，我們意識到很多事情都會發生變化，而且肯定有很多機會利用固定成本。

But I wanted to focus on the selling costs and the leverage there that you mentioned.

但我想關注你提到的銷售成本和槓桿。

So I'm just curious, do you expect things to look meaningfully different in the future in terms of how those kind of third-party agents are involved in the transactions?

所以我很好奇，您認為未來這些第三方代理如何參與交易方面，情況會出現有意義的不同嗎？

And I guess the question to be blunt is over time, does this look more like a brokerage-type structure where maybe you actually employ agents, ship some of those variable commission costs to kind of a fixed point of leverage?

我想直白的問題是，隨著時間的推移，這是否看起來更像是經紀類型的結構，也許你實際上僱用了代理人，將一些可變佣金成本轉移到固定的槓桿點？

Or is that kind of too extreme with maintaining things on the IMT side?

或者說在 IMT 方面維護事情是否太極端？

Any thoughts there would be great.

任何想法都會很棒。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I'll take that one.

我會接受那個。

So when you think about the cost leverage, it's very important to think about across all those.

因此，當您考慮成本槓桿時，考慮所有這些因素非常重要。

So buying and selling is one.

所以買和賣是一回事。

But closing and transaction costs, and that's why we talked about title and escrow a bit here, and then holding costs and turns, those all add up to the leverage we see at scale.

但是成交和交易成本，這就是我們在這裡討論所有權和託管的原因，然後是持有成本和周轉率，這些都加起來構成了我們看到的規模槓桿。

As it relates to selling specifically, we absolutely expect to see better leverage there on the work that we ask, whether it's employees or partners, to do as we scale.

由於它與具體的銷售相關，因此我們絕對希望看到我們要求的工作（無論是員工還是合作夥伴）隨著我們的規模擴大而得到更好的利用。

We currently are using our great agent partners in every one of our transactions, and we plan to continue to do that.

目前，我們在每筆交易中都使用我們優秀的代理商合作夥伴，並且我們計劃繼續這樣做。

As you can imagine, as we're scaling to hundreds of listings in each market, the work we're asking them to do, you can scale that work across many more listings, and we can drive efficiencies in the work we're paying for.

正如您可以想像的那樣，當我們擴展到每個市場的數百個列表時，我們要求他們做的工作，您可以將該工作擴展到更多的列表，並且我們可以提高我們所支付的工作的效率為了。

The next question is from Lloyd Walmsley with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的勞埃德‧沃姆斯利。

This is Greg on for Lloyd.

這是勞埃德的格雷格。

One, within the channel, we've been hearing that a couple of agent teams are starting to dismantle just because of a lack of volume advantage.

第一，在通路內，我們聽說有幾個代理團隊因為缺乏數量優勢而開始解散。

So I guess are you guys seeing something similar?

所以我想你們看到類似的東西了嗎？

And if so, how is that affecting the Premier Agent business?

如果是這樣，這對高級代理業務有何影響？

And second, I noticed that there's a redesign to the mobile app and the desktops.

其次，我注意到行動應用程式和桌面進行了重新設計。

And also, you guys included a couple of new features to help agents with the lead flow.

此外，你們也加入了一些新功能來幫助代理商處理潛在客戶流。

So I guess can you talk about the redesign and some of the new features and how that's impacting the business?

所以我想您能談談重新設計和一些新功能以及它們對業務的影響嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's Greg.

是格雷格。

Happy to grab it.

很高興能抓住它。

So agent teams are going strong.

因此，代理團隊正在變得強大。

We're actually seeing the opposite movement from what perhaps you observed in the channel, which is we're seeing the differentiation standardization.

我們實際上看到了與您在頻道中觀察到的相反的趨勢，即我們看到了差異化標準化。

The service commitment that teams bring is increasingly important, especially as our volume concentrates for Zillow Offers and into our Flex test.

團隊帶來的服務承諾變得越來越重要，特別是當我們的業務量集中在 Zillow Offers 和 Flex 測試中。

So we think teams are a growth strategy for us, and it's certainly what we're seeing.

因此，我們認為團隊是我們的成長策略，這確實是我們所看到的。

Redesign, yes.

重新設計，是的。

We've redesigned recently both the mobile app and desktop experiences with a beautiful photo-driven and video-enabled experience.

我們最近重新設計了行動應用程式和桌面體驗，提供了精美的照片驅動和視訊體驗。

It's been well received by consumers and very carefully tested.

它受到了消費者的好評，並且經過了非常仔細的測試。

As it pertains to new features in our CRM or Premier Agent app, the Premier Agent app has been a quiet and very significant success for us.

由於它涉及我們的 CRM 或 Premier Agent 應用程式中的新功能，Premier Agent 應用程式對我們來說取得了悄然且非常重大的成功。

The vast majority of the leads we generate are actually touched in the app.

我們產生的絕大多數潛在客戶實際上都是在應用程式中接觸到的。

It's probably one of the most used -- impossible to compare it but probably the most used CRM in the industry.

它可能是最常用的 CRM 之一——無法進行比較，但可能是業界最常用的 CRM。

And it's become really critical to our agents' success in converting, and we will continue to invest in it because we think we can help them drive real efficiencies in their activities and power them with differentiated data.

它對於我們的代理商成功轉換變得非常關鍵，我們將繼續對其進行投資，因為我們認為我們可以幫助他們提高活動的真正效率，並為他們提供差異化的數據。

The next question comes from Brad Erickson with Needham & Company.

下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Brad Erickson。

A couple of follow-ups, I guess.

我猜還有幾個後續行動。

One, Jeremy, when you call out the 3% to 4% conversion rate on the inbound requests for Offers, and I recognize that can move a lot higher, do you view that as kind of the opportunity set for seller leads ultimately?

第一，傑里米，當您提到入站報價請求的轉換率為 3% 至 4% 時，我認識到該轉換率可能會更高，您是否認為這最終是為賣家帶來的機會？

Or do you expect to be able to refer seller leads to, say, more of a majority of the inbound leads you're receiving ultimately?

或者您希望能夠將賣家線索推薦給您最終收到的大部分入站線索？

And then I guess secondarily, given how many you're getting so far, I think you said something like 1 every 2 minutes, it would seem like you have significant demand for PAs to get in front of those opportunities like now today.

其次，我想，考慮到您到目前為止獲得的數量，我認為您說過每 2 分鐘 1 個之類的內容，看來您對 PA 有著巨大的需求，以便能夠像今天這樣抓住這些機會。

Why do you think that hasn't happened yet?

您認為為什麼這還沒有發生？

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I'll take that, and Greg maybe can chime in.

我會接受的，格雷格也許可以插嘴。

So the conversion opportunity is definitely the whole 100, right, not the 3% to 4%.

所以轉換機會肯定是整個100對吧，而不是3%到4%。

And there's just different phases based on what their question is for us, whether they're actually getting an offer, whether they're getting to a final offer for us or whether they're not eligible.

根據他們對我們提出的問題、他們是否真正收到錄用通知、他們是否為我們提供最終錄用通知或他們是否不符合資格，有不同的階段。

So yes, we do think that the opportunity for both seller listings and Zillow Offers to grow is the fact that everyone is showing up asking about how to help sell their house and either Offers or a great Premier Agent is the right answer for them.

所以，是的，我們確實認為賣家清單和 Zillow Offers 成長的機會在於每個人都出現詢問如何幫助出售他們的房子，而 Offers 或優秀的高級經紀人對他們來說都是正確的答案。

And that is what we're testing today with our agent partners.

這就是我們今天與代理商合作夥伴一起測試的內容。

I would add one more thing.

我還想補充一件事。

Customers are falling in love with the Zillow Offers experience.

顧客愛上了 Zillow Offers 體驗。

So it takes a little bit of invention and magic to take someone who's fallen in love with an Offers experience and get them over to Premier Agents.

因此，需要一點發明和魔法才能讓那些愛上優惠體驗的人轉交給高級代理商。

And Jeremy and my team, both these teams are really working hard to figure out what the compelling offer is to get a consumer to do it.

傑里米和我的團隊，這兩個團隊都在努力找出吸引消費者購買的令人信服的產品。

And that's why it's not in this year's financial plans is we have some invention to do because they want an offer and they want to transact with us.

這就是為什麼今年的財務計劃中沒有我們有一些發明要做，因為他們想要報價並且想要與我們進行交易。

So we're channel-changing them, and we'll get there.

所以我們正在改變他們的管道，我們會實現這一目標。

I'm just not ready to put it in paper yet.

我只是還沒準備好把它寫在紙上。

The next question is from Ygal Arounian with Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Ygal Arounian。

On Zillow Offers, so you guys noted -- you got a lot of questions about getting to scale, but you noted building a world-class operating platform for national scale.

在 Zillow Offers 上，你們注意到，你們對擴大規模有很多疑問，但你們指出要為全國範圍建立一個世界級的營運平台。

Was wondering if you could dig into that a little bit and highlight some of -- what that means, some of the things you're doing to help you get to scale.

我想知道您是否可以深入研究並強調其中的一些內容——這意味著什麼，以及您正在做的一些事情來幫助您擴大規模。

And then you also noted the 7% average rate on Offers.

然後您還注意到報價的平均利率為 7%。

I was wondering if you could talk about in various markets where there might be more or less competition, how that differs and as you think over time as competition increases, pricing on offers would play an important role or not.

我想知道您是否可以談論在不同的市場中，競爭可能會或多或少，它們有何不同，隨著時間的推移，隨著競爭的加劇，報價是否會發揮重要作用。

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I'll take both.

我兩個都要。

So on platform, you can think about it as a couple of buckets.

所以在平台上，你可以把它想像成幾個桶子。

One is kind of workforce management and tools to enable all of operations and the operators to scale.

一種是勞動力管理和工具，使所有營運和營運商能夠擴展。

So everyone who touches one of the homes in the field and central office, there needs to be scale, tools and technology that allows us to run this operation more efficiently than we are today.

因此，每個接觸現場家庭和中央辦公室的人都需要規模、工具和技術，使我們能夠比今天更有效地運作這項作業。

And then you can also think of it as kind of pricing and Big Data.

然後你也可以將其視為定價和大數據。

So we're collecting every day more data to make our models more efficient and more real time in their feedback to drive not just a more accurate price but a faster customer experience.

因此，我們每天都會收集更多的數據，以使我們的模式在回饋中更有效率、更即時，從而不僅推動更準確的價格，而且推動更快的客戶體驗。

So that's how you might want to think about the platform.

這就是您可能要考慮的平台的方式。

On the fee and are we seeing sort of variableness by market or from competitors, it's still so early.

關於費用以及我們是否看到市場或競爭對手的某種變化，現在還為時過早。

We're not seeing much in terms of cross-shopping.

我們沒有看到太多交叉購物的情況。

I mean our biggest competitor here is just the traditional way of listing and whether that's the right path for each customer.

我的意思是，我們最大的競爭對手只是傳統的上市方式以及這是否適合每個客戶。

Obviously, the fee varies widely because we're solving for what we think it will take to sell your house.

顯然，費用差異很大，因為我們正在解決我們認為出售您的房子所需的費用。

And so the 7% was the average but it varies for every house.

所以 7% 是平均值，但每個房子的情況都不同。

And so different price bands, different neighborhoods will have different estimates of what it will take to sell, how long and at what price.

因此，不同的價格範圍、不同的社區對於出售什麼、需要多長時間以及以什麼價格會有不同的估計。

And that's what spits out the fee.

這就是費用的來源。

The next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的布倫特希爾 (Brent Thill)。

We saw the illustration in the shareholder letter showing the path to 3% margins at scale within the Homes business.

我們在股東信中看到了插圖，展示了住宅業務規模達到 3% 利潤率的路徑。

Can you just give us a sense of how long you think it takes to get to scale or how many markets or homes that would entail?

您能否告訴我們您認為需要多長時間才能實現規模化，或需要多少市場或家庭？

Yes.

是的。

This is Allen.

這是艾倫。

I think what I'd say is longer than 3 to 5 years because I think our view is our long-term target of getting to the 5,000 homes purchased a month and getting to a $20 billion rev run rate, the 200 to 300 basis points that we say is at scale likely exceeds that point.

我認為我所說的時間比 3 到 5 年更長，因為我認為我們的長期目標是達到每月購買 5,000 套房屋並達到 200 億美元的轉速運行率，即 200 到 300 個基點我們所說的規模可能會超過這一點。

But again, we're learning all the time.

但同樣，我們一直在學習。

And the great thing is, as Jeremy just talked about, we're focused on the inputs.

最棒的是，正如傑里米剛才所說，我們專注於輸入。

We're focused on building the mechanisms to drive great operations, and we've got a customer signal that's really strong.

我們專注於建立推動良好營運的機制，並且我們已經收到了非常強烈的客戶訊號。

So all of those things have to continue and execution we control, and the customer signal keeps getting stronger as we enter markets.

因此，所有這些事情都必須繼續並由我們控制執行，隨著我們進入市場，客戶訊號不斷變得更強。

So we're optimistic, but I can't put a time line on it.

所以我們很樂觀，但我無法給出時間表。

And to a certain extent -- this is Rich.

某種程度上——這就是里奇。

To a certain extent, it's a function of growth.

在某種程度上，它是成長的函數。

To the extent we are continuing to see rapid growth and future growth opportunities, we will continue to make smart investment decisions on a go-forward basis, which might put off achieving the scale model.

如果我們繼續看到快速成長和未來的成長機會，我們將繼續在未來的基礎上做出明智的投資決策，這可能會推遲實現規模模型。

The next question is from Deepak Mathivanan with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Deepak Mathivanan。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

So first, on the Homes business, last quarter, you ended with about a little over 400 homes -- sorry, 500 homes in your inventory.

首先，在房屋業務方面，上個季度，您最終擁有大約 400 多套房屋——抱歉，您的庫存中有 500 套房屋。

And in the first quarter of this year, you sold closer to 400.

今年第一季度，你們的銷量接近 400 輛。

I mean there seems like there's a few ones older than 90 days.

我的意思是，似乎有些已經超過 90 天了。

Can you talk about the inventory aging trends there?

您能談談那裡的庫存老化趨勢嗎？

And then on EBITDA loss for Homes business in 2Q, can you parse out between contribution profit and then fixed costs?

然後，關於第二季度房屋業務的 EBITDA 損失，您能否解析貢獻利潤和固定成本之間的關係？

Just a quick one on the PA business as well.

簡單介紹一下 PA 業務。

You guys had a sizable advertising spend on the Premier Agent business last year.

去年你們在高級代理商業務上投入了大量的廣告費用。

But clearly now the messaging and the creatives have changed to a more holistic basis.

但顯然現在的訊息和創意已經變得更加全面。

How should we think about the advertising spend allocation between the IMT business and then Homes and Mortgages business this year?

我們該如何看待今年 IMT 業務與住房和抵押貸款業務之間的廣告支出分配？

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I'll take the first of what I counted as 3 questions.

我將回答我算作 3 個問題中的第一個問題。

So on inventory aging, you're right.

所以關於庫存老化，你是對的。

And you'll see our inventory grow as we scale because every month, we're going to buy more than the homes we had bought in prior months to sell.

你會看到我們的庫存隨著我們規模的擴大而增長，因為每個月我們都會購買比前幾個月購買的房屋更多的房屋。

And as we grow and we get to more aged inventory, you'll see us manage that on a cohort basis.

隨著我們的發展，我們的庫存越來越多，您會看到我們在隊列的基礎上進行管理。

So for any given cohort homes we buy, we're pricing that cohort to account for both the head of overperformers that sell faster and that tail you'll start to see as homes that take longer to sell.

因此，對於我們購買的任何特定群體房屋，我們都會對該群體進行定價，以考慮到銷售速度更快的表現優異的頭部和您將開始看到的需要更長時間出售的房屋的尾部。

And so we'll treat each cohort carefully and revenue manage it as a portfolio, but you'll see that total inventory balance grow as we continue to push for scale.

因此，我們將仔細對待每個群體，並將其作為投資組合進行收入管理，但隨著我們繼續擴大規模，您將看到總庫存餘額不斷增長。

Yes.

是的。

And this is Allen.

這是艾倫。

Let me just add to that, that in addition, as any company that has inventory and manages inventory, we have processes in place to ensure that we're adjusting -- assessing our inventory values and marking them down to lower cost of market.

讓我補充一點，此外，與任何擁有庫存並管理庫存的公司一樣，我們都有適當的流程來確保我們進行調整——評估我們的庫存價值並將其標記為較低的市場成本。

And to date, we have not had to make an adjustment.

到目前為止，我們還沒有必要做出調整。

However, as Jeremy mentioned, as we grow, it's likely in the ordinary course of business that we will have to make such an adjustment.

然而，正如傑瑞米所提到的，隨著我們的成長，在正常的業務過程中我們很可能必須做出這樣的調整。

And then maybe I can just quickly take your second, Deepak.

然後也許我可以快速接受你的第二個，迪帕克。

We don't break out the split, but I think what I would just highlight is in Q1, our EBITDA for Homes segment was negative 27% of revenue.

我們不會詳細說明分割情況，但我想我要強調的是，在第一季度，我們的住宅業務部門的 EBITDA 為負收入的 27%。

And if you look at our Q2 guidance, it implies a range of negative 20% to negative 23% of revenue.

如果你看我們第二季的指導，它意味著收入的範圍為負 20% 到負 23%。

So you can see that as we grow and even as we enter new markets, we're going to continue to get leverage.

所以你可以看到，隨著我們的成長，甚至當我們進入新市場時，我們將繼續獲得影響力。

And then our fixed cost will not grow as fast as our top line.

這樣我們的固定成本就不會像我們的營收成長得那麼快。

And on the marketing question, I mean we don't give out an allocation to the segments.

關於行銷問題，我的意思是我們不會分配給各個細分市場。

I mean you can -- the vast majority of the spend is driving all segments right now.

我的意思是你可以——現在絕大多數支出都在推動所有細分市場。

And if you actually look at our new ad campaign that talks about all segments.

如果你真的看看我們新的廣告活動，它討論了所有細分市場。

In fact, some of our hero spots talk about -- one of our hero spots talk about Offers, Mortgages and PA.

事實上，我們的一些英雄景點談論了——我們的英雄景點之一談論了優惠、抵押貸款和 PA。

But we aren't disclosing the breakdown of sort of media weight or specifics.

但我們不會透露媒體權重或細節的詳細情況。

The next question is from Shyam Patil with SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Shyam Patil。

(Operator Instructions) And the next question is from Mark May with Citi.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自花旗銀行的馬克梅（Mark May）。

I have 2, please.

我有2個，拜託。

Maybe just a follow-up on the last question and your answer.

也許只是最後一個問題和你的答案的後續。

I just want to clarify in terms of thinking about the cohorts head and tail and some of the homes that might work, some of them that may be down to your expectation.

我只是想澄清一下對隊列頭部和尾部的思考以及一些可能有用的房屋，其中一些可能符合您的期望。

Did you say that you haven't yet had to write down the value of any homes?

您是說您還沒有必要減記任何房屋的價值嗎？

I just wanted to be clear.

我只是想說清楚。

Maybe if that's not the case, can you give us a sense for what portion of the homes that you've purchased live to date that maybe did not meet your sort of criteria in terms of average markup or resell or holding period and if, in fact, that there haven't been any that you had to sell at a loss?

也許如果情況並非如此，您能否讓我們了解一下您迄今為止購買的房屋中哪些部分在平均加價、轉售或持有期限方面可能不符合您的標準，以及是否在事實上，沒有任何東西是你不得不虧本出售的？

Just was trying to clarify that.

只是想澄清這一點。

And then in terms of the -- we've had the existing home sales kind of soft here for a while.

然後就我們而言，現房銷售已經有一段時間疲軟了。

Just curious what impact, if any, you've seen on the Premier Agent side of the business in terms of active accounts on -- active paying accounts on Zillow and/or the average spend per lead per agent as a result of kind of the softer existing home sales market.

只是好奇，您在 Zillow 上的活躍付費帳戶和/或每個代理商的每條潛在客戶的平均支出方面看到了業務的高級代理商方面的影響（如果有的話）。現有房屋銷售市場疲軟。

Yes.

是的。

This is Jeremy.

這是傑里米。

I'll take that first and maybe Allen can clarify.

我先考慮一下，也許艾倫可以澄清一下。

I think Allen's talking more about the accounting treatment.

我認為艾倫更多地談論了會計處理。

No.

不。

In any of our cohorts, we're selling homes a little bit above what we enter into in that we're having to drop price and sell them for less on others.

在我們的任何一個群體中，我們出售的房屋都比我們進入的價格略高一些，因為我們不得不降低價格並以更低的價格出售給其他人。

So it's not about pricing.

所以這不是定價的問題。

We're really, really pleased actually with how tightly we are to our underwriting.

我們對承保的嚴格程度感到非常非常滿意。

The vast majority of our homes are actually performing within bps of what we underwrote to, which is really impressive to see for how early we are in the operations in some of these markets.

我們絕大多數房屋的表現實際上都在我們承保的基點以內，看到我們在其中一些市場的運作有多早，真是令人印象深刻。

I think Allen was talking specifically around do we hit a test in accounting in which we have to actually account for inventory markdown, and we haven't hit that yet.

我認為艾倫專門討論了我們是否要進行會計測試，其中我們必須實際考慮庫存降價，但我們還沒有達到這一點。

And we probably won't for a while because it won't be material to the business.

我們可能暫時不會這樣做，因為這對業務來說並不重要。

I think that's what Allen was saying there.

我想這就是艾倫所說的。

We'll have to.

我們必須這樣做。

We believe it will happen in the future.

我們相信這將在未來發生。

In the ordinary course of business, we will likely do some of these markdowns.

在正常的業務過程中，我們可能會進行一些降價促銷。

And Mark, just to be clear, the lower cost to market assessment would come -- for example, at 3/31, we would look at all of the 993 homes in inventory, focusing on all -- focusing likely on the aged ones and determine whether the expected price we expect to sell for is lower, including sales cost, the cost to sell is lower than the carrying value.

馬克，需要明確的是，較低的市場評估成本將會到來 - 例如，在 3 月 31 日，我們將查看庫存中的所有 993 套房屋，重點關注所有房屋 - 可能重點關注老化的房屋和確定我們預期出售的預期價格是否較低，包括銷售成本，出售成本是否低於帳面價值。

And if so, we would have to take a markdown.

如果是這樣，我們就必須降價。

And what I was trying -- what I indicated was we have not yet taken a markdown for that event.

我正在嘗試 - 我表示我們尚未對該活動進行降價。

Mark, it's Greg.

馬克，這是格雷格。

On the Premier Agent business, with relatively low interest rates still hanging around and decent -- growing choices among homes, Premier Agent business is buyer-driven, so buyers are having a suddenly easier experience finding something to move into.

在高級代理業務上，相對較低的利率仍然存在，而且房屋的選擇越來越多，高級代理業務是由買家驅動的，因此買家突然更容易找到可入住的地方。

So that business hasn't seen macro headwinds in this period.

因此，該業務在此期間並未遇到宏觀阻力。

The fourth quarter when it was tough from a macro perspective, things look really solid right now.

從宏觀角度來看，第四季的情況很艱難，但現在情況看起來確實很穩固。

The next question is from Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的希思·特里。

I just wanted to dig a little bit into the guidance.

我只是想深入了解該指南。

Bringing the EBITDA guidance up the way that you did.

按照您的方式提高 EBITDA 指引。

I know you called out some of the nonrecurring items and stock-based comp in the quarter.

我知道您在本季列出了一些非經常性項目和基於股票的補償。

Anything that we should be thinking about sort of in the forward guidance, whether nonrecurring items or other things sort of underlying the improvement and the profitability outlook?

我們在前瞻性指引中應該考慮什麼，無論是非經常性項目還是其他導致改善和獲利前景的因素？

And then on -- with the rebranding of the Mortgage business, any more color on the progress that you're seeing in integrating with home offers and what sort of uptake you're getting in Mortgages along with that part of the business?

然後，隨著抵押貸款業務的品牌重塑，您在與房屋優惠整合方面所看到的進展是否有更多的色彩，以及您在抵押貸款以及這部分業務中獲得了什麼樣的吸收？

Yes.

是的。

So this is Allen.

這就是艾倫。

I'll take the first part of your question.

我將回答你問題的第一部分。

So again, we exceeded Q1 guidance -- our top end of our guidance by about $25 million.

因此，我們再次超越了第一季的指導——我們的指導上限約 2500 萬美元。

And for the year, we've taken up EBITDA about $35 million to $40 million.

今年，我們的 EBITDA 約為 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元。

I walked through the $25 million, and what I'd say is that besides that amount, there's still a little bit more, about another $8 million -- $8 million to $10 million related to this change in our recognition of the employee expenses that go throughout the year.

我瀏覽了 2500 萬美元，我想說的是，除了這個金額之外，還有一點，大約還有 800 萬美元——800 萬至 1000 萬美元，與我們對員工費用的認識的變化有關。全年。

And then the remainder is just based on our latest forecast and looking at some of the traction we're getting on discretionary spend.

剩下的部分只是基於我們的最新預測，並考慮了我們在可自由支配支出上獲得的一些吸引力。

It's Greg.

是格雷格。

As it pertains to Mortgage, we're having a blast with that business.

就抵押貸款而言，我們的業務進展順利。

We rebranded Zillow Home Loans, rebranded the new brand.

我們重新命名了 Zillow Home Loans，並重新命名了新品牌。

And we're a bit ahead of schedule on the software and platform build.

我們在軟體和平台建置方面比計劃提前了一些。

You know this is intensive, operationally demanding business.

您知道這是一項密集、營運要求較高的業務。

We got to get a digital borrower platform out for borrowers and our loan officers.

我們必須為借款人和我們的信貸員建立一個數位借款人平台。

We've got -- have a very efficient operating model with underwriting and processing.

我們擁有非常有效率的承保和處理營運模式。

And then we have to make a lot of progress on automation to build a healthy, scalable business.

然後我們必須在自動化方面取得很大進展，以建立健康、可擴展的業務。

That is 100% our focus.

這是我們 100% 關注的焦點。

It is not the time -- we're not focused on attach at this point.

現在還不是時候——我們現在不關注附加。

We are focused on building a scalable model that's technically driven.

我們專注於建立技術驅動的可擴展模型。

And we're a little -- we're maybe a quarter ahead of schedule.

我們可能比計劃提早了四分之一。

We already have this digital platform being tested by 2 of our origination teams.

我們的兩個創始團隊已經對這個數位平台進行了測試。

But there's many, many, many miles to walk here.

但到這裡要走很多很多很多英里。

And as you know, attach really isn't significantly in the biz model for this year.

如您所知，附加在今年的商業模式中確實並不重要。

It's still the tech and the platform that's scalable.

可擴展的仍然是技術和平台。

Showing no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

由於沒有其他問題，我們的問答環節就此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Rich Barton for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回給里奇·巴頓（Rich Barton）發表閉幕詞。

Thanks for your time today.

感謝您今天抽出時間。

Look, we are in the midst of a major transformation to revolutionize the real estate transaction.

看，我們正處於一場重大變革之中，以徹底改變房地產交易。

And as I said at the top, the plan is coming together.

正如我在頂部所說，該計劃正在製定中。

We know that this will take time, but we are well on our way.

我們知道這需要時間，但我們正在順利進行中。

As investors, I realize this requires more belief and imagination than required in a typical public company investment.

身為投資者，我意識到這需要比典型上市公司投資更多的信念和想像。

I am convinced Zillow Group is anything but typical.

我確信 Zillow Group 絕非典型。

Thank you for your continued constructive support.

感謝您一直以來的建設性支持。

Smart critical shareholders who are owners just like us make for great partners.

聰明的關鍵股東和我們一樣都是所有者，他們是偉大的合作夥伴。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。