埃克森美孚 (XOM) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Exxon Mobil Corporation First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎來到埃克森美孚公司 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。

And at this time, I'd like to turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Mrs. Jennifer Driscoll. Please go ahead, ma'am.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁詹妮弗·德里斯科爾夫人。請繼續，女士。

Good morning. Welcome to ExxonMobil's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Thanks for joining us today. I'm Jennifer Driscoll, Vice President, Investor Relations. Here with me are Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kathy Mikells, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早上好。歡迎來到埃克森美孚 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。感謝您今天加入我們。我是投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Driscoll。和我在一起的是董事長兼首席執行官達倫·伍茲 (Darren Woods)；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Kathy Mikells。

Our presentation and prerecorded remarks are available on the new Investor Relations section of our website. They're meant to accompany the first quarter earnings news release, which is posted in the same location. Shortly, Darren will provide opening comments and reference a few slides from this presentation. That will give analysts more time to ask questions before we conclude at 8:30 a.m. Central Time.

我們的演示文稿和預先錄製的評論可在我們網站的新投資者關係部分獲得。它們將與發佈在同一位置的第一季度收益新聞一起發布。很快，Darren 將提供開場評論並參考本演示文稿中的幾張幻燈片。這將使分析師有更多時間在我們於中部時間上午 8 點 30 分結束之前提出問題。

During the presentation, we'll make forward-looking comments which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We describe some of them in our cautionary statement here on Slide 2. Additional information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements are listed in our most recent Form 10-Ks and 10-Qs available on our website for investors. Also, please note that we provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are posted on the website.

在演示過程中，我們將做出受風險和不確定因素影響的前瞻性評論。我們在幻燈片 2 的警示性聲明中描述了其中的一些。有關適用於任何前瞻性聲明的風險和不確定性的更多信息列在我們網站上為投資者提供的最新 10-Ks 和 10-Q 表格中。另外，請注意，我們在發佈在網站上的收益幻燈片末尾提供了補充信息。

And now please turn to Slide 3 for Darren's remarks.

現在請轉到幻燈片 3 以了解 Darren 的發言。

Good morning. Thanks for joining us today. Following a record year, ExxonMobil delivered the highest first quarter earnings in our history even as energy prices and refining margins moderated from the fourth quarter. This ongoing success reflects the hard work of our people, executing our strategic priorities and fully leveraging our competitive advantages. Through investments in advantaged assets, mix improvements and cost and operating discipline, we are delivering the structural earnings improvements outlined in our corporate plan update last December, and expanding the energy supplies needed to meet growing global demand.

早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。在創紀錄的一年之後，儘管能源價格和煉油利潤率從第四季度開始放緩，但埃克森美孚第一季度的收益創歷史新高。這一持續的成功反映了我們員工的辛勤工作，執行我們的戰略重點並充分利用我們的競爭優勢。通過對優勢資產的投資、組合改進以及成本和運營紀律，我們正在實現去年 12 月更新的公司計劃中概述的結構性收益改進，並擴大滿足不斷增長的全球需求所需的能源供應。

Compared to the first quarter of 2022, we added about 300,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day to global supply, primarily from a 40% increase in production from Guyana and the Permian Basin. The increase more than offset our divestments and the expropriation of Sakhalin-1, which we no longer account for, but which importantly, remains part of global supply.

與 2022 年第一季度相比，我們每天為全球供應增加約 300,000 桶石油當量，這主要是由於圭亞那和二疊紀盆地的產量增加了 40%。這一增長遠遠抵消了我們的撤資和薩哈林一號的徵用，我們不再考慮，但重要的是，它仍然是全球供應的一部分。

In addition, our Beaumont refinery expansion reached nameplate capacity in the quarter. This 250,000 barrel a day expansion is the largest U.S. refinery addition in a decade, helping meet society's ongoing need for transportation fuels.

此外，我們的 Beaumont 煉油廠擴建在本季度達到了銘牌產能。每天 250,000 桶的擴建是美國十年來最大的煉油廠擴建，有助於滿足社會對運輸燃料的持續需求。

Guyana, we're pleased to announce that we reached final investment decisions for Uaru, fifth offshore project, which will bring on even more production from this low-cost, low-carbon intensity resource. Uaru will provide an additional 250,000 barrels a day of gross capacity with start-up targeted for 2026.

圭亞那，我們很高興地宣布，我們為第五個離岸項目 Uaru 做出了最終投資決定，該項目將從這種低成本、低碳強度的資源中帶來更多的產量。 Uaru 將提供額外的每天 250,000 桶的總產能，目標是在 2026 年啟動。

Earnings in our Product Solutions business benefited from the team's solid operational execution with top-quartile turnaround cost and schedule performance during a particularly heavy planned maintenance period.

我們的產品解決方案業務的收益得益於團隊在特別繁重的計劃維護期間穩健的運營執行以及最高四分之一的周轉成本和進度績效。

In Low Carbon Solutions, we're building momentum across several fronts. In early April, we announced a long-term agreement with Linde to capture, transport and permanently store up to 2.2 million metric tons of CO2 annually. In hydrogen, we announced front-end engineering and design contract for the world's largest low carbon hydrogen facility in Baytown, a Heads of Agreement with SK Group of Korea for offtake of blue ammonia from that facility.

在低碳解決方案方面，我們正在多個方面建立勢頭。 4 月初，我們宣布與林德達成長期協議，每年捕獲、運輸和永久封存多達 220 萬噸二氧化碳。在氫氣方面，我們宣布了位於 Baytown 的世界上最大的低碳氫氣設施的前端工程和設計合同，這是與韓國 SK 集團就從該設施中提取藍色氨氣達成的一項主要協議。

As we said during our Low Carbon Solutions spotlight earlier this month, our low-carbon projects must be advantaged and deliver competitive returns. The ability of our low-carbon projects to compete successfully for capital is important if the world is going to meet its emissions aspirations. Incentives included in the Inflation Reduction Act are a positive step forward, although permitting and other regulatory improvements are still needed. Europe, by contrast, policy approach remains far more prescriptive and punitive. This is true whether we're talking about the emissions reductions needed to put the world on a path to net zero or the production needed to provide Europe with affordable and reliable energy.

正如我們在本月早些時候的低碳解決方案聚光燈下所說的那樣，我們的低碳項目必須具有優勢並提供有競爭力的回報。如果世界要實現其排放目標，我們的低碳項目成功競爭資本的能力非常重要。 《降低通貨膨脹法案》中包含的激勵措施是向前邁出的積極一步，儘管仍然需要許可和其他監管方面的改進。相比之下，歐洲的政策方針仍然更具規範性和懲罰性。無論我們是在談論使世界走上淨零排放之路所需的減排量，還是為歐洲提供負擔得起的可靠能源所需的生產，都是如此。

The progress we're making across the company is underpinned by the continuing evolution of our business model. Effective on May 1, 2 new enterprise-wide organizations will be up and running. Global Business Solutions will centralize the majority of our finance and procurement operations, enabling us to deliver simplified corporate-wide processes. ExxonMobil Supply Chain will consolidate supply chain activities globally. The organizations will focus on leveraging our scale to drive efficiencies; improve operating and financial results; and importantly, deliver an improved experience for customers, vendors and our people.

我們在整個公司取得的進步得益於我們業務模式的不斷發展。自 5 月 1 日起，將啟動並運行 2 個新的企業級組織。全球業務解決方案將集中我們大部分的財務和採購業務，使我們能夠提供簡化的全公司流程。埃克森美孚供應鏈將整合全球供應鏈活動。這些組織將專注於利用我們的規模來提高效率；改善經營和財務業績；重要的是，為客戶、供應商和我們的員工提供更好的體驗。

On June 1, we plan to launch our new enterprise-wide trading organization. Global Trading will bring together expertise from across the company in crude, products, natural gas, power and marine freight trading. We plan to build on our record 2022 results leveraging the unique insights we gain from participating across each of our value chains and all along their entire length with a global operating footprint larger than any of our competitors.

6 月 1 日，我們計劃啟動新的企業級貿易組織。 Global Trading 將匯集整個公司在原油、產品、天然氣、電力和海運貿易方面的專業知識。我們計劃在我們創紀錄的 2022 年業績的基礎上，利用我們從參與每個價值鍊及其整個長度中獲得的獨特見解，全球運營足跡比我們的任何競爭對手都要大。

Now let me cover the quarter's headlines. We're pleased to have delivered $11.4 billion of earnings, a record first quarter following a record year. A significant contributing factor was structural cost savings that now total approximately $7.2 billion, keeps us on track to meet our target of $9 billion by the end of this year. Cash flow from operations totaled $16.3 billion, and our net debt-to-capital ratio declined to 4%, further increasing the strength of our balance sheet while supporting shareholder distributions of $8.1 billion in the quarter, including $3.7 billion in dividends.

現在讓我報導本季度的頭條新聞。我們很高興在創紀錄的一年之後的第一季度實現了 114 億美元的收益。一個重要的促成因素是結構性成本節約，目前總計約 72 億美元，使我們能夠在今年年底前實現 90 億美元的目標。運營現金流總計 163 億美元，我們的淨債務與資本比率下降至 4%，進一步增強了我們資產負債表的實力，同時支持本季度 81 億美元的股東分配，包括 37 億美元的股息。

Despite a dynamic market, our underlying performance remains rock solid and well ahead of our competition, reflecting the many improvements we've made over the last 6 years and of course the hard work of our people. Our diverse portfolio of advantaged businesses, improvements in mix, structural cost savings, excellence in execution are driving industry-leading earnings, cash flow and shareholder value. Combined with the strength of our balance sheet, we have the capability to win across a wide variety of market conditions to deliver strong returns while meeting the evolving needs of society, including the need to reduce emissions.

儘管市場充滿活力，但我們的基本業績依然堅如磐石，遠遠領先於我們的競爭對手，這反映了我們在過去 6 年中取得的許多進步，當然還有我們員工的辛勤工作。我們多元化的優勢業務組合、組合改進、結構性成本節約、卓越的執行力正在推動行業領先的收益、現金流和股東價值。結合我們資產負債表的實力，我們有能力在各種市場條件下取勝，提供豐厚的回報，同時滿足社會不斷變化的需求，包括減少排放的需求。

Leveraging the capabilities and advantages developed in our traditional businesses, we're building an advantaged new business, Low Carbon Solutions, which is positioning us as a leader in the energy transition, in our own and others' emissions, and establishing long-term value-accretive growth opportunities that will underpin continued growth in shareholder returns.

利用我們在傳統業務中開發的能力和優勢，我們正在建立一個有優勢的新業務，即低碳解決方案，這將使我們成為能源轉型、我們自己和他人排放方面的領導者，並建立長期價值- 將支持股東回報持續增長的增長機會。

With that, let me turn the call over to Jennifer.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給詹妮弗。

Thank you, Darren. Now let's move to Q&A. (Operator Instructions). With that, operator, please open up the line for our first question.

謝謝你，達倫。現在讓我們進入問答環節。 （操作員說明）。有了這個，接線員，請打開我們的第一個問題的線路。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們將首先與高盛公司聯繫尼爾梅塔。

Darren, you've spent a lot of time in the refining business over the years, and you've had a perspective on these calls that margins were going to start to normalize, and we're seeing some indication of that. I'd just be curious on your views on what you're seeing in terms of product demand. And then, how do you think it's going to manifest itself in -- through the refining system from a margin perspective over the next couple of years?

達倫，多年來你在煉油業務上花了很多時間，你對這些電話有一個看法，即利潤率將開始正常化，我們看到了一些跡象。我只是想知道您對產品需求的看法。然後，您認為在未來幾年內，從利潤率的角度來看，它會如何通過煉油系統體現出來？

Yes. Neil, a couple of points, I think as we're looking at the refining margin. Obviously, the first I would make is we don't really pride ourselves on being able to forecast margins, so I'll caveat everything I say with the recognition that, given the impact that demand has on the margins, given the fairly static supply side of the equation, it's often difficult to know exactly where things are going to go.

是的。尼爾，我想有幾點，因為我們正在研究煉油利潤率。顯然，我首先要說的是，我們並不真正為能夠預測利潤率而自豪，所以我會警告我所說的一切，並認識到，考慮到需求對利潤率的影響，考慮到相當靜態的供應另一方面，通常很難準確知道事情的發展方向。

What I would say is, as you look at where we're at today, I mean, this is seasonally a low point as you head into second quarter and third quarter and driving season, when you tend to see supply and demand tighten up and margins improve. You typically see early in the year a lot of refining turnarounds which take a lot of capacity offline in that lower-demand season. And then when those turnarounds are finished and capacity comes back out, you get a surge of supply. And so you generally see refining margins drop off here in kind of this valley between the supply coming back and then demand picking up as you head into early summer and on to the year. So I think we're in -- that's important context in terms of what we're seeing right now.

我要說的是，當你看看我們今天所處的位置時，我的意思是，當你進入第二季度和第三季度以及駕駛季節時，這是季節性的低點，屆時你往往會看到供需收緊，利潤率提高。你通常會在今年年初看到許多煉油周轉，在那個需求較低的季節使大量產能下線。然後當這些周轉完成並且產能恢復時，你會看到供應激增。因此，隨著進入初夏和今年，你通常會看到煉油利潤率在供應回升和需求回升之間的谷底下降。所以我認為我們處於 - 就我們現在所看到的而言，這是重要的背景。

Gasoline demand looks pretty reasonable, frankly. I think jet demand and transportation looks like it's kind of trending up. And certainly, from listening to some of our customers in that space, expectations of fairly healthy air transportation or airline travel miles going forward in the summer.

坦率地說，汽油需求看起來相當合理。我認為噴氣機需求和運輸看起來有點上升趨勢。當然，通過聽取我們在該領域的一些客戶的意見，他們對夏季未來相當健康的航空運輸或航空旅行里程的期望。

So I think in my view is we're going to see the typical push up in the summer and see margins rise. Longer term, it comes back to what happens in China. It has been a source of not only demand, but also of exports. Their exports have been higher in the first quarter, but it depends to see how those play out going forward. If we see similar levels of exports as we saw last year, my expectation is that will put additional upward pressure on the margin. So I think that's kind of the things to watch.

所以我認為在我看來，我們將在夏季看到典型的推高，並看到利潤率上升。從長遠來看，它會回到中國發生的事情。它不僅是需求的來源，也是出口的來源。他們的出口在第一季度有所增加，但這取決於未來的表現。如果我們看到與去年相似的出口水平，我預計這將給利潤率帶來額外的上行壓力。所以我認為這是值得關注的事情。

The last point I'd make on refining margins, which I think is somewhat structural. Typically, the marginal barrel in refining comes out of Europe. And so the Europe set -- is the price-setter for global markets ex transportation. You've got high gas prices in Europe with, I think, the potential to go higher. You've got high carbon prices in Europe. And so that marginal tier of production is a lot more expensive than it's been historically. And that's going to keep, I think, pressure on higher prices for the globe, and therefore better margins if you're producing outside of Europe.

最後一點我要說的是精煉利潤率，我認為這在某種程度上是結構性的。通常，煉油的邊緣桶來自歐洲。因此，歐洲集 - 是全球市場（不包括運輸）的價格製定者。歐洲的油價很高，我認為還有可能上漲。歐洲的碳價格很高。因此，邊際生產層比歷史上要貴得多。我認為，這將繼續對全球價格上漲構成壓力，因此如果您在歐洲以外生產，則利潤率會更高。

We'll go next to Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們將與美國銀行的道格萊格特一起去。

Darren, I wonder if I could kick off first on disposals, another reasonable contribution from noncore asset sales. Can you characterize where you are in that process, and what you think you might have still in front of you in terms of noncore asset sales? And I've got a quick follow-up, please.

達倫，我想知道我是否可以先開始處置，這是非核心資產出售的另一個合理貢獻。您能否描述一下您在該過程中所處的位置，以及您認為在非核心資產出售方面您可能還有什麼？請快速跟進。

Sure, Doug. Well, I think if you look at the plans we set ourselves, I think, back in 2018, where we talked about particularly in the Upstream, increasing our divestments and taking a very thoughtful approach there, making sure that we were positioning ourselves that when the market was right and we had interest from buyers, that we had assets ready to sell and divest, has worked fairly well. We've been, I think, pretty successful at consistently putting assets in the market and realizing the value of those. We should hit the objective that we set back in 2018 probably some time this year.

當然，道格。好吧，我想如果你看看我們在 2018 年為自己制定的計劃，我們特別談到了上游，增加我們的撤資並在那裡採取非常周到的方法，確保我們將自己定位為市場是正確的，我們有買家的興趣，我們有準備出售和剝離的資產，運作良好。我認為，我們一直非常成功地持續將資產投入市場並實現這些資產的價值。我們應該在今年某個時候實現我們在 2018 年設定的目標。

And then we've got -- as we continue to work on high-grading the portfolio, continue to look at assets that we don't see are strategic necessarily, or where we see a potential value -- higher value for others, we'll continue to feed that divestment portfolio and market those assets.

然後我們得到了——隨著我們繼續努力對投資組合進行高評級，繼續研究我們認為不一定具有戰略意義的資產，或者我們認為具有潛在價值的資產——對其他人的更高價值，我們將繼續為撤資投資組合提供資金並推銷這些資產。

So my expectation is we've got an inventory of things going forward, and would expect to see, in my mind, kind of consistent rate of being out in the market and basically finding -- seeing if we can find buyers who have a higher use for the assets than we do and therefore better value and therefore deal space.

所以我的期望是我們已經對未來的事情有了一個清單，並且在我看來，我希望看到一種穩定的上市率，並且基本上找到 - 看看我們是否能找到擁有更高價格的買家使用資產比我們做的更好，因此具有更好的價值和交易空間。

I just would make the final point that, as we look at the divestments, it is a value proposition. We are comfortable with everything we've got in the portfolio. It's really a question of how do we optimize and maximize the value, and that's been the focus from the very beginning and continue to be one. So we're not -- we don't have to sell anything, it's only if we find a valuable opportunity to do that.

我只想說最後一點，當我們看資產剝離時，這是一個價值主張。我們對投資組合中的所有內容感到滿意。這實際上是一個我們如何優化和最大化價值的問題，這從一開始就是重點，並將繼續成為重點。所以我們不是——我們不必出售任何東西，只有當我們找到一個寶貴的機會去做的時候。

I appreciate the answer. I think I couldn't remember if Jennifer said one question or one plus one follow-up, so I'll risk a follow-up very quickly.

我很欣賞這個答案。我想我不記得詹妮弗是說一個問題還是一加一跟進，所以我會很快跟進。

I'll delicately ask this question, if I may. Obviously, Kathy was on the wires this morning talking about how picky Exxon would be on M&A. I just want to ask you if you feel that you need to backfill your Permian position at any time in the future. And I'll leave it there.

如果可以的話，我會小心翼翼地問這個問題。顯然，凱西今天早上在電話中談到埃克森美孚在併購方面會多麼挑剔。我只是想問你，你是否覺得你未來任何時候都需要回填你的二疊紀位置。我會把它留在那裡。

Yes. Okay, Doug. I'll give you this one plus one. Look, it amazes me that the amount of questions that come up in this space, but I think we've been pretty consistent as we've talked about it. We're always looking for an opportunity for an acquisition and one that grows value. And it's got to be value accretive. And it's got to be one where -- what ExxonMobil brings to the table actually increases what either company would do independent of one another. And so that's kind of, I'd say, the underlying approach.

是的。好的，道格。我給你這個加一。看，這個領域出現的問題數量讓我感到驚訝，但我認為我們在談論它時一直非常一致。我們一直在尋找收購機會和增加價值的機會。而且它必須是增值的。而且它必須是一個——埃克森美孚帶來的東西實際上增加了兩家公司獨立於另一家公司所做的事情。所以這就是我要說的基本方法。

While we're in a depletion business and we've got to work real hard to continue to bring volume on it, we're not actually in the market to find volume. We're in the market to find value. And we're willing to kind of let volumes do what they will do in the search for making sure that anything that we bring into the portfolio is accretive and is a unique value contribution for the shareholders.

雖然我們處於枯竭業務中，我們必須非常努力地工作以繼續增加銷量，但我們實際上並不是在市場上尋找銷量。我們在市場上尋找價值。我們願意讓數量做他們將做的事情，以確保我們帶入投資組合的任何東西都是增值的，並且是對股東的獨特價值貢獻。

And so I mean, we're looking -- we're working really hard on our technology portfolio in the Permian. I've talked about that in the past. My view is success in technology and developing proprietary technology which improves either resource recovery or the cost of developing that resource, whatever that is, whatever value lever our technology can bring to the table, that obviously opens up deal space.

所以我的意思是，我們正在尋找——我們正在努力開發我們在二疊紀的技術組合。我過去談過這個。我的觀點是在技術和開發專有技術方面取得成功，這些技術可以提高資源回收率或開發該資源的成本，無論是什麼，無論我們的技術可以帶來什麼價值槓桿，這顯然都打開了交易空間。

And to the extent that we're very active in the Permian, we've got a really good anchor business there, and we're working real hard on opening up the value proposition of our current acreage with technology, that will open up potentially opportunities for acquisitions. But that's down the road. That's work that we've got to demonstrate to ourselves, there is a unique value proposition there. And then my view would be we'll leverage that to the full extent that we can.

就我們在二疊紀非常活躍的程度而言，我們在那裡有一個非常好的錨定業務，我們正在努力用技術打開我們當前面積的價值主張，這將潛在地打開收購機會。但那是在路上。這是我們必須向自己展示的工作，那裡有一個獨特的價值主張。然後我的觀點是我們將盡我們所能利用它。

But I'd make the same -- that's true for any of the areas of our portfolio where we've got a substantial business today and ongoing technology work to make advances. That's, I think, really what's going to underpin where we focus our attention.

但我會做同樣的事情 - 對於我們今天擁有大量業務並且正在進行的技術工作以取得進步的投資組合的任何領域都是如此。我認為，這才是真正支撐我們關注的地方。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And we'll go next to Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與摩根士丹利一起去 Devin McDermott。

So I wanted to stick with the Permian, but I'm not going to ask an M&A question, I wanted to ask about the results you're seeing there. And if you look at the production in the quarter, you guys reported 615,000 barrels a day. It's strong sequential growth versus 4Q and also puts you already in line with that 10% growth target that you had laid out for 2023.

所以我想堅持二疊紀，但我不會問併購問題，我想問你在那裡看到的結果。如果你看一下本季度的產量，你們每天報告 615,000 桶。與第四季度相比，這是強勁的連續增長，也使您已經達到了為 2023 年制定的 10% 的增長目標。

So I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the productivity trends and the driver of the stronger that you're seeing there. And then also how you're thinking about the evolution of production for the balance of this year.

所以我想知道你是否可以談談生產力趨勢和你在那裡看到的更強者的驅動力。然後還有你如何考慮今年餘下時間的生產演變。

Yes. I would say we haven't changed our year-end targets, and so the guidance that we gave as part of the corporate plan discussion last year continues to hold. I think we've said in the past that, as you look at production in the Permian, it's going to be a little bit lumpy. And so I wouldn't take any one data point, any one quarter's numbers and extrapolate from there. I think you're going to see some movement in that, up and down.

是的。我想說我們沒有改變我們的年終目標，因此我們在去年的公司計劃討論中給出的指引繼續有效。我想我們過去說過，當你看二疊紀的生產時，它會有點起伏不定。因此，我不會採用任何一個數據點、任何一個季度的數字並從那裡進行推斷。我想你會看到其中的一些變化，上下波動。

I would say, generally speaking, we like what we're seeing in terms of productivity in the Permian. You all know we -- several years ago, our strategy on maximizing oil recovery versus initial production rates, that led to a very different development approach. Trying to work across this cube design, work across all the benches simultaneously to maximize ultimate recovery. That -- I think we've been developing that approach, fine-tuning it, testing it and evolving that concept.

我會說，一般來說，我們喜歡我們在二疊紀的生產力方面所看到的。你們都知道我們 - 幾年前，我們關於最大化石油採收率與初始生產率的戰略導致了一種截然不同的開發方法。嘗試在這個立方體設計中鍛煉，同時在所有長凳上鍛煉，以最大限度地提高最終恢復能力。那—我認為我們一直在開發這種方法，對其進行微調、測試並發展該概念。

We like where we've gotten to with that approach. I think we're seeing the results of that starting to manifest itself. Our expectation is that we'll continue to, I think, differentiate our production and what we're able to do versus many of the others -- many of our other competitors who started off on this best bench, high initial production rates. With time, I expect to see them pivot, maybe a similar approach, but I think we've got a real good head start on that.

我們喜歡這種方法所取得的成就。我認為我們正在看到它開始顯現的結果。我們的期望是，我認為，我們將繼續使我們的生產和我們能夠做的事情與許多其他競爭對手區分開來——我們的許多其他競爭對手都是從這個最好的工作台開始的，初始生產率很高。隨著時間的推移，我希望看到他們轉向，也許是類似的方法，但我認為我們已經在這方面取得了良好的開端。

Like what we're doing there. I think we see some encouraging signs on the early stages of that. And we're going to keep pressing on that, maintain rigs in the capital levels that we've been talking about pretty consistently, and then we'll see how the rest of the year plays out. But we're sticking, at this point, to the same year-end guidance that we gave late last year.

就像我們在那裡所做的那樣。我認為我們在早期階段看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。我們將繼續推動這一點，將鑽井平台維持在我們一直在談論的資本水平，然後我們將看到今年餘下時間的結果。但在這一點上，我們堅持去年年底給出的相同年終指導。

We'll go next to John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們將與 JPMorgan 的 John Royall 一起去。

So on the Beaumont expansion, can you talk about how the capacity is being absorbed in the market? And what's happened to cracks and the general concerns around demand today and granted, I think, Darren's commentary on the market was probably a bit more positive. But are there any concerns about adding capacity at a time where fundamentals appear to be weakening?

那麼關於 Beaumont 的擴張，您能談談市場是如何吸收產能的嗎？以及今天對需求的普遍擔憂和裂縫發生了什麼，我認為，達倫對市場的評論可能更積極一些。但是，在基本面似乎正在走弱的時候增加產能是否有任何擔憂？

Yes. I would say the short answer is no. Look, we all know these markets are volatile, that they move up and down. We focused. I'll remind you, on the Beaumont expansion, this is something that we began planning and developing many, many years ago. And it was really built on the Permian production and the changes and transportation differentials by bringing crude into the front end of the Beaumont refinery and making the intermediate products to fill our conversion capacity and backing out imports of intermediates and saving the transportation of those intermediates that are typically coming from afar.

是的。我會說簡短的回答是否定的。看，我們都知道這些市場是波動的，它們上下波動。我們專注。我會提醒你，關於博蒙特擴張，這是我們很多很多年前就開始計劃和開發的東西。它真正建立在二疊紀生產以及變化和運輸差異的基礎上，通過將原油帶入博蒙特煉油廠的前端並製造中間產品來填補我們的轉化能力並取消中間體的進口並節省那些中間體的運輸通常來自遠方。

And so we justified that project on a transportation differential and felt that, that provided a reasonable return, and with the expectation that, on top of that, we would see the value of additional fuels and the higher-value products that we are producing.

因此，我們證明了該項目在交通差價上的合理性，並認為這提供了合理的回報，並期望除此之外，我們會看到額外燃料的價值和我們正在生產的更高價值的產品。

Exactly what we're seeing today. It is very well positioned on the cost of supply curve. And frankly, that's how you need to think about this business. So irrespective of where the margins go, our view is all of our facilities need to be on the far left of the curve so that we've got a difference between the marginal price-setter. And I have every expectation that the capacity that we brought on in Beaumont will -- I know it's on the far left-hand side of the cost of supply curve, so feel pretty good about its competitiveness.

正是我們今天所看到的。它在供應成本曲線上的位置非常好。坦率地說，這就是您需要考慮這項業務的方式。因此，無論利潤率如何，我們的觀點是我們所有的設施都需要位於曲線的最左側，以便我們在邊際價格製定者之間有所不同。我完全期望我們在博蒙特帶來的能力——我知道它位於供應成本曲線的最左側，因此對其競爭力感到非常滿意。

We'll go next to Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將與 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin 一起討論。

So I think looking at the numbers, what sort of jumps off of the page is the cash balance. And you've been pretty transparent about this topic and the imperative to build a fortress balance sheet. But I wonder if the direction we're going with cash, even net of shareholder returns that are continuing to increase and that are well within sort of your targets, if we're kind of getting beyond fortress and into something even bigger than that. And if there's any thought around kind of the absolute level of cash today and really what's optimal.

所以我認為看看這些數字，頁面上跳出的是現金餘額。你對這個話題和建立堡壘資產負債表的必要性一直非常透明。但我想知道，如果我們有點超越堡壘，進入比這更大的東西，我們在現金方面的發展方向，甚至是不斷增加的股東回報的淨額，都在你的目標之內。如果對今天的現金絕對水平以及真正的最佳現金水平有任何想法。

And I think I'll just -- I'll catch that with, historically, Exxon had kept a very lean balance sheet on both sides relative to sort of the production base and the cash flow base. And so it's a little bit different than the history of the company, and so I would appreciate your thoughts on it.

而且我想我會 - 我會抓住這一點，從歷史上看，埃克森美孚在生產基地和現金流基礎方面一直保持著非常精簡的資產負債表。所以它與公司的歷史有點不同，所以我很感激你的想法。

Sure. I'll go ahead and take that, Sam. I mean, our capital allocation approach, I think, has been very consistent and very clear. And we had talked about the fact that we would expect our cash balance post the end of the year to kind of ebb and flow depending on how market prices and margins evolved.

當然。我會繼續接受那個，山姆。我的意思是，我認為我們的資本配置方法非常一致且非常清晰。我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即我們預計年底後我們的現金餘額會根據市場價格和利潤率的變化而起伏不定。

So I'd say we're very comfortable with where we stand. It's important for us to have a really strong balance sheet in order to ensure that we stick to our capital allocation priorities through the cycle, right? That's investing in the business and competitively advantaged high-return projects. It's maintaining a very strong balance sheet. That balance sheet gives us all the firepower and confidence we need to succeed across a very wide variety of market conditions, which is obviously what this industry faces. And then clearly, we're looking to share our success with shareholders, and you see that through a more consistent share repurchase program and a growing dividend. So we feel pretty good about our cash balance.

所以我想說我們對自己的立場非常滿意。擁有一個真正強大的資產負債表對我們來說很重要，以確保我們在整個週期中堅持我們的資本配置優先事項，對嗎？那就是投資於業務和具有競爭優勢的高回報項目。它保持著非常強勁的資產負債表。該資產負債表為我們提供了在各種市場條件下取得成功所需的全部火力和信心，這顯然是這個行業所面臨的。然後很明顯，我們希望與股東分享我們的成功，你可以通過更一致的股票回購計劃和不斷增長的股息看到這一點。所以我們對我們的現金餘額感覺很好。

I would just also mention that we're in a relatively unusual market environment compared to what we've seen in the past. ExxonMobil's average debt rate is about 3%. You can look up what people are earning on short-term cash. I think 3-month treasuries are at 5% today. So right now, we're not incurring a negative cost of carry on that cash balance, and that's certainly one of the things that we look at as well. So we feel really good about where we're at today in our balance sheet.

我還要提一下，與我們過去看到的相比，我們處於一個相對不尋常的市場環境中。埃克森美孚的平均負債率約為 3%。您可以查看人們通過短期現金賺取的收入。我認為 3 個月期國債今天的利率為 5%。所以現在，我們不會因為現金餘額而產生負成本，這當然也是我們關注的事情之一。因此，我們對我們今天在資產負債表中所處的位置感覺非常好。

Yes. And I would add, Sam, I think you mentioned history. And in recent history, it's certainly true that we ran fairly lean on cash. But if you go further back to some of the really high cycles, we carried more cash, and it reflected the commodity cycle and the nature that typically we're bringing a lot of cash to the top of the commodity cycle. But that's an important asset as you move into the bottom of the cycle, particularly when you're trying to maintain the consistent investment levels and continuing to advance the projects you have in the portfolio.

是的。我想補充一點，山姆，我想你提到了歷史。在最近的歷史中，我們確實相當依賴現金。但如果你進一步回到一些真正的高週期，我們持有更多現金，這反映了商品週期和通常我們將大量現金帶到商品週期頂部的性質。但當你進入周期底部時，這是一項重要資產，尤其是當你試圖保持一致的投資水平並繼續推進你在投資組合中的項目時。

So I think in times when the markets are on the high end of the cycle, I would expect to see cash balances higher so that we're well positioned as we go into the low end of the cycle, which we know will come. Question will -- is obviously when, but that will come.

因此，我認為在市場處於週期高端的時候，我預計現金餘額會更高，以便我們在進入周期低端時處於有利地位，我們知道這會到來。問題會——顯然是什麼時候，但那會到來。

We'll go next to Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們將與 Wells Fargo 一起去 Roger Read。

What I'd like to ask on the specific commentary about the $7.2 billion in savings on track for the $9 billion this year. Could you characterize a little bit where that's come from to date? How kind of general inflation within not just the oil field, but in general, how that's affecting that? And is $9 billion, like is that the end of the program? Or is there something to happen beyond that? I know I'm kind of asking 3 questions in 1, but they're all focused right around the $7 billion to $9 billion. So if you allow me, I'll throw that at you.

關於今年 90 億美元有望節省 72 億美元的具體評論，我想問什麼。你能描述一下迄今為止的來源嗎？不僅是油田，而且總體而言，一般通貨膨脹情況如何？這對它有何影響？是 90 億美元，就像該計劃的結束一樣？或者除此之外還有什麼事情要發生嗎？我知道我在 1 個問題中提出了 3 個問題，但它們都集中在 70 億至 90 億美元左右。所以如果你允許我，我會把它扔給你。

All right. I'll try and circle around that kind of suite of questions for you, Roger. So I'd start by saying, overall, we feel really good about the progress that we've made. We're very much on track for the $9 billion at the end of this year relative to 2019. If you look overall at where a number of, I'd say, different programs are driving savings for us.

好的。羅傑，我會嘗試為您解決這類問題。所以我首先要說，總的來說，我們對我們取得的進展感覺非常好。相對於 2019 年，我們有望在今年年底實現 90 億美元。如果你從整體上看，我會說，不同的項目正在為我們節省開支。

One is just improving the overall productivity across our workforce. If you think about how that's manifested itself in Upstream, it's been a significant reduction in what I would describe as above-field cost that's been a real focus of that organization. We've made a number of different organizational changes over the past couple of years. I would describe those generally as looking to centralize kind of key functions across the company that have been done disparately.

一是提高我們員工隊伍的整體生產力。如果你考慮一下這在上游是如何表現出來的，那就是我所說的場上成本的顯著降低，這一直是該組織的真正關注點。在過去的幾年裡，我們進行了許多不同的組織變革。我會把那些通常描述為希望集中整個公司已經完全不同的關鍵功能。

Previously, our global projects organization would be a great example of that. Last year, more recently, the combination of our Upstream -- I'm sorry, our downstream and chem organization into our Product Solutions business, a lot of simplification coming across that business as a result. Combining our engineering and research kind of groups collectively together. And then just recently announcing the combination of our supply chain across the organization and setting up a global business services organization and combining our global trading capabilities across the company.

以前，我們的全球項目組織就是一個很好的例子。去年，最近，我們的上游——對不起，我們的下游和化學組織合併到我們的產品解決方案業務中，結果該業務進行了大量簡化。將我們的工程和研究類團隊結合在一起。然後最近剛剛宣布合併我們整個組織的供應鏈，建立一個全球商業服務組織，並結合我們在整個公司的全球貿易能力。

And so that's all about improving the experience for our employees, for our vendors, for our customers and continuing to drive efficiencies, and importantly effectiveness, across those organizations.

因此，這一切都是為了改善我們的員工、我們的供應商、我們的客戶的體驗，並繼續提高這些組織的效率，重要的是提高效率。

We would have seen actually the benefit of some of that in this recent quarter. We talked a little bit in our presentation about the fact that our maintenance activities, we had a pretty heavy turnaround quarter, and those maintenance activities really came in at the first quartile. So much better than what we had planned for, shorter duration. That enabled us obviously to have better throughput than we would have been planning overall for the quarter. And so that's a big area of savings for us. And that's another organization that we have recently centralized in our global operations and sustainability group.

我們實際上會在最近一個季度看到其中一些的好處。我們在演示文稿中談到了一個事實，即我們的維護活動，我們有一個相當大的周轉季度，而這些維護活動確實進入了第一個四分位數。比我們計劃的要好得多，持續時間更短。這顯然使我們的吞吐量比我們本季度的總體計劃要好。因此，這對我們來說是一個很大的節省空間。這是我們最近集中在我們的全球運營和可持續發展小組中的另一個組織。

So that gives you, I'd say, a little bit of a characterization of where savings are coming from. And certainly, some of the more recent changes that we've made in the organization, we'd expect to drive efficiencies and effectiveness going forward from here.

所以我想說，這給了你一點關於儲蓄來源的特徵。當然，我們在組織中所做的一些最近的變化，我們希望從這裡開始提高效率和有效性。

And then just the last comment, like does the program end? So just to be clear, we've talked about a specific time period externally because we thought that would be helpful in transparency. Internally, we don't actually manage this as, hey, there's onetime period that we're focused on as opposed to we are focused on continuing to drive structural cost savings over time. Those are embedded in the plans that we shared with you last December. And obviously, we'll be doing an update when we come to the end of the year. And so we'll talk in more detail about what we see from there on a go-forward basis.

然後就是最後的評論，比如節目結束了嗎？所以要明確一點，我們在外部討論了一個特定的時間段，因為我們認為這有助於提高透明度。在內部，我們實際上並沒有對此進行管理，因為，嘿，我們關注的是一段時間，而不是我們專注於隨著時間的推移繼續推動結構性成本節約。這些都包含在我們去年 12 月與您分享的計劃中。顯然，我們將在年底時進行更新。因此，我們將在前進的基礎上更詳細地討論我們從那裡看到的內容。

And the final point I'd make to build on what Kathy said is we have seen, with all these organizational changes, as our people have come together in the new organizations and focused on the objectives of those organizations and what the corporation is trying to achieve, we find a lot more opportunities than we could envision even going in to the changes.

在 Kathy 所說的基礎上，我要提出的最後一點是，我們已經看到，隨著所有這些組織變革，我們的員工聚集在新組織中，並專注於這些組織的目標以及公司正在努力實現的目標實現，我們發現的機會比我們想像的要多得多，甚至在進行變革時也是如此。

So my expectation is, as these new organizations come together, they will begin to find things. The organizational changes we've already made are continuing to find things. So our expectation, as you head into the future, is we'll continue to drive efficiencies and deliver structural cost savings on to the bottom line.

所以我的期望是，隨著這些新組織走到一起，他們將開始發現一些東西。我們已經進行的組織變革正在繼續尋找新的東西。因此，當您走向未來時，我們的期望是我們將繼續提高效率並實現結構性成本節約。

And then I'll just circle back. You asked a little bit about inflation. We actually have put an additional disclosure in our press release, so I'd encourage you to look at that. If you look at the quarter, we more than offset inflationary cost pressure with the structural savings that we were able to generate. Overall, I'd say, the organization is doing a good job at looking to offset inflation in what's obviously been a higher-inflation environment recently.

然後我就繞回來。你問了一些關於通貨膨脹的問題。我們實際上已經在我們的新聞稿中進行了額外的披露，所以我鼓勵你看一下。如果你看一下這個季度，我們可以通過我們能夠產生的結構性儲蓄來抵消通脹成本壓力。總的來說，我想說的是，該組織在尋求抵消最近通貨膨脹明顯較高的環境中的通貨膨脹方面做得很好。

We'll go next to Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

我們將和 TD Cowen 一起去 Jason Gabelman 旁邊。

I wanted to ask a question on the downstream business and given your global reach there. We're seeing reports that Asian refiners are contemplating run cuts while margins in the U.S. are still really robust. And I'm wondering if you see that dynamic has kind of balanced, where cracks in Asia are 0 but margins in the U.S. are still 20, and that's kind of representative of the market structure that we're in. Or do you expect the weakness in Asia margins to kind of force U.S. refining margins lower in the near term?

我想問一個關於下游業務的問題，並考慮到你們在那裡的全球影響力。我們看到有報導稱亞洲煉油廠正在考慮減產，而美國的利潤率仍然非常強勁。我想知道你是否看到這種動態有點平衡，亞洲的裂縫為 0，但美國的利潤率仍為 20，這在某種程度上代表了我們所處的市場結構。或者你認為亞洲利潤率的疲軟會在短期內迫使美國煉油利潤率下降嗎？

Yes, sure, I'll take that. I think the first comment I would make is, over some period of time, and it's typically pretty short, the world balances. And we always use the phrase the world is round. So it's hard to stay disconnected with -- the margins eventually have to equilibrate on transportation differentials. And so that's the model that I have in my mind. There are always short-term disruptions. You certainly saw that coming out of the pandemic with some of the logistics constraints. So there will obviously be periods of time where things constrain that. But generally speaking, that happens.

是的，當然，我會接受的。我想我要發表的第一個評論是，在一段時間內，而且通常很短，世界平衡。我們總是說世界是圓的。所以很難與 - 利潤率最終必須平衡運輸差異。這就是我心目中的模型。總會有短期的中斷。你當然看到了在一些後勤限制的情況下擺脫大流行。所以顯然會有一段時間限制它。但一般來說，這種情況會發生。

I think the margins in the U.S. will be a function of what production source is setting the marginal layer of production? As I said earlier, that has historically come out of Europe. And their cost structures have increased, and so that marginal barrel is now higher, which is underpinning higher Gulf Coast refining. I don't frankly see that changing in the short term. Obviously, if additional capacity comes on that's much lower cost, and that supply overwhelms any growth in demand, and we'll see the marginal price-setter change. And then with time, that will get balanced out based on transportation differentials.

我認為美國的利潤率取決於什么生產來源正在設定生產的邊際層？正如我之前所說，這在歷史上一直來自歐洲。他們的成本結構有所增加，因此邊際桶現在更高，這支撐了更高的墨西哥灣沿岸煉油。坦率地說，我認為短期內不會發生變化。顯然，如果有額外的產能出現，成本就會低得多，而且供應會超過需求的任何增長，我們將看到邊際價格製定者發生變化。然後隨著時間的推移，這將根據運輸差異得到平衡。

My sense of things is, if you look back to last year and the export levels coming out of China and the balances in Asia, that stayed reasonably tight. The question will be, do we see the same thing this year? And I think time will tell.

我的感覺是，如果你回顧去年，中國的出口水平和亞洲的平衡保持相當緊張。問題是，我們今年會看到同樣的事情嗎？我認為時間會證明一切。

We'll go next to Stephen Richardson with Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將與 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Richardson 一起討論。

This may be a bit of a follow-up on the questions previously about cost structure and the balance sheet. But I was wondering, Darren, if you could just address how and remind us how you're thinking about dividend growth, right? Because we've got clear evidence here that you've got foundational earnings growth. You've got projects that are coming on sooner and bigger, if you look at Guyana, the Permian is doing well, you're adding base capacity downstream.

這可能是對先前有關成本結構和資產負債表的問題的一些跟進。但我想知道，達倫，你是否可以解決並提醒我們你是如何考慮股息增長的，對嗎？因為我們在這裡有明確的證據表明您已經實現了基本的收益增長。如果你看看圭亞那，二疊紀表現良好，你就會有更快、更大的項目，你正在向下游增加基礎產能。

So just wondering if you could remind us, sort of on a mid-cycle basis, how to think about -- and how the Board thinks about dividend growth. Because certainly, you've derisked some of those foundational earnings.

所以只是想知道你是否可以在周期中期的基礎上提醒我們如何思考 - 以及董事會如何思考股息增長。因為當然，你已經貶低了其中一些基本收益。

Yes, I'll start and then I'll hand it over to Kathy to build on. But I would just say, generally, as we think about the dividend, we try to keep the long term in mind and also be extremely conscious of the commodity cycles and the variability and the volatility that we see in the marketplace, and making sure that we establish a level of dividends that are reliable, sustainable, and I'd like to see those grow with time.

是的，我會開始，然後我會把它交給 Kathy 繼續完善。但我只想說，總的來說，當我們考慮股息時，我們會著眼於長期，同時也非常注意商品週期以及我們在市場上看到的可變性和波動性，並確保我們建立了可靠、可持續的紅利水平，我希望看到這些紅利隨著時間的推移而增長。

That's been our history. That's what you've seen us do. And you see us fight -- certainly during the pandemic year, fight really hard to make sure that we sustain that. And that's, I think, a commitment that I feel really strongly about. And so it's really about making sure that what we do there is sustainable for the long term. And then obviously, we can balance disbursement -- shareholder disbursements with buybacks. But I think maintaining a long-term perspective and making sure our shareholders feel rewarded through the dividend policy is an underlying principle.

那是我們的歷史。這就是你看到我們所做的。你看到我們在戰鬥——當然是在大流行年，非常努力地戰鬥以確保我們能夠維持下去。我認為，這是我非常重視的承諾。所以這真的是為了確保我們在那裡所做的事情是長期可持續的。然後很明顯，我們可以平衡支出——股東支出與回購。但我認為保持長遠眼光並確保我們的股東通過股息政策獲得回報是一項基本原則。

Kathy, do you want to add anything to that?

凱西，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, I'd say we look to take a very balanced approach as we think about shareholder distributions and getting that balance between a growing, competitive dividend, right, as well as the efficiency through share repurchases. And I think we're striking a pretty even balance in that regard, and we definitely think about this over the long term as opposed to the near term, given we're in a business that's highly cyclical.

是的，我想說我們希望採取一種非常平衡的方法，因為我們考慮股東分配，並在不斷增長的、有競爭力的股息和通過股票回購提高效率之間取得平衡。而且我認為我們在這方面取得了相當平衡的平衡，我們肯定會從長期而不是短期考慮這一點，因為我們所處的行業具有高度週期性。

And so you've seen us in the last 2 years raise the dividend in the fourth quarter of the year. We're never going to get out in front of the Board of Directors. It's obviously something that we look at regularly, and we know it's important to ensure that dividend is competitive and growing. And about 40% of our shareholders are retail shareholders, so more of the moms and pops across the globe that are our investors. And so we know it's important. It's something we're really focused on.

所以你看到我們在過去兩年中提高了今年第四季度的股息。我們永遠不會在董事會面前露面。這顯然是我們經常關注的事情，我們知道確保股息具有競爭力和增長是很重要的。我們大約 40% 的股東是散戶股東，因此全球更多的夫妻是我們的投資者。所以我們知道這很重要。這是我們真正關注的事情。

We'll go next to Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們將和 Piper Sandler 一起去 Ryan Todd 旁邊。

Maybe a question on the chemicals business. You saw sequential margin improvement in your chemical products business driven by advantaged ethane pricing. Have we turned the corner in the chemicals environment? And can you talk about how you see the trajectory of margins in that business over the course of 2023?

也許是關於化學品業務的問題。在有利的乙烷定價的推動下，您看到化工產品業務的連續利潤率有所提高。我們是否已在化學品環境中度過難關？您能否談談您如何看待 2023 年該業務的利潤率軌跡？

Sure. I'll start then, and if Kathy's got anything to add to it.

當然。那我就開始吧，如果凱西有什麼要補充的。

I think these -- like all the businesses that we're in, the underlying drivers of the Chemical margins tend to be the commodity chemicals that are driven by supply/demand and the balances or imbalances in supply/demand. That margin, we saw a lot of capacity come on. You remember, as we went through the pandemic, a lot of investments got stalled and pulled back. And then as we came out, those got turned back on again and have come on to the marketplace. So we've seen a lot of capacity coming on. I expect we'll still see some of that come on here in the short term.

我認為這些 - 就像我們所從事的所有業務一樣，化學品利潤率的潛在驅動因素往往是由供需和供需平衡或失衡驅動的商品化學品。那個利潤率，我們看到了很多產能。你記得，當我們經歷大流行病時，許多投資停滯不前並撤回。然後當我們出來時，那些又重新啟動並進入市場。因此，我們已經看到大量產能湧現。我希望我們在短期內仍會看到其中的一些出現。

And then in conjunction with that, the COVID impacts took a while for it to unwind through what I'd say is the global economy, which impacted chemical demand. As you know, it's very tied to economic activity. So if economic activity is constrained, then chemical demand is constrained. And we certainly saw that with the China lockdowns.

然後與此相結合，COVID 的影響需要一段時間才能通過我所說的影響化學品需求的全球經濟來緩解。如您所知，它與經濟活動密切相關。因此，如果經濟活動受到限制，那麼化學品需求就會受到限制。我們當然在中國的封鎖中看到了這一點。

Where we're at now is that capacity is out there and on, and it's just a question of where demand goes. And frankly, I think it's early with China. We do see some promising signs, but we'll have to see how that -- how China demand and their economic activity picks up.

我們現在所處的位置是產能一直存在，這只是需求去向的問題。坦率地說，我認為與中國合作還為時過早。我們確實看到了一些有希望的跡象，但我們必須看看——中國的需求及其經濟活動將如何回升。

The other point I would make is feed, and feed optimization is a big part of the margin equation as well. We've got some fairly diverse assets with respect to the ability to manage feed and change feedstocks around. As gas prices came off, that gave us a better liquid-to-gas spread that allowed us to change some of our feed into our crackers and see the advantage of that. So that was a help in the first quarter, some of that feed optimization. And that will play into it as well. And I think that's what you saw in the first quarter.

我要說的另一點是飼料，飼料優化也是利潤方程式的重要組成部分。在管理飼料和改變原料的能力方面，我們擁有一些相當多樣化的資產。隨著天然氣價格的下降，這為我們提供了更好的液氣價差，使我們能夠將一些飼料改成我們的裂解裝置，並看到了它的優勢。所以這在第一季度是一個幫助，一些提要優化。這也會發揮作用。我認為這就是您在第一季度看到的情況。

And then these more macro impacts, we'll see how they play out as we go forward. Kathy, anything?

然後這些更多的宏觀影響，我們將看到它們如何在我們前進的過程中發揮作用。凱西，有什麼事嗎？

Yes. The only other thing I'd add is we obviously brought on our Baton Rouge chemical expansion project late in the fourth quarter that spooled up in quarter. That's part of an overall strategy of growing performance chemicals, along with growing high-value products across our Product Solutions business, be it performance chemicals or low emission fuels, high-value lubes.

是的。我唯一要補充的另一件事是，我們顯然在第四季度末啟動了我們的巴吞魯日化學擴建項目，該項目在本季度結束。這是發展高性能化學品以及在我們的產品解決方案業務中發展高價值產品的總體戰略的一部分，無論是高性能化學品還是低排放燃料、高價值潤滑油。

And so even though the market has been tough, that project actually had a positive earnings and cash flow contribution for us in the quarter. So that's a big part of our overall strategy and mixing up in both the Chemical business and across our Product Solutions business. And we feel very good about the results that's bringing. And we obviously have an advantage in a very heavy U.S. Gulf Coast footprint kind of relative to the global footprint, and that helped us in the sequential improvement in margins.

因此，儘管市場一直很艱難，但該項目實際上在本季度為我們帶來了積極的收益和現金流貢獻。因此，這是我們整體戰略的重要組成部分，並在化學業務和我們的產品解決方案業務中混合使用。我們對帶來的結果感到非常滿意。與全球足跡相比，我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的足跡顯然具有優勢，這有助於我們連續提高利潤率。

Yes. It's a great example of where we're focused on, advantaged projects that bring on advantaged low-cost capacity. So that polypropylene unit that we brought on, in really what is a pretty low point in the polypropylene market, to make earnings, positive earnings on a brand-new piece of kit that starts up in the lowest of the cycle is, I think, a testament to the strength of the projects that we are investing in and bringing online.

是的。這是一個很好的例子，說明我們專注於帶來優勢低成本產能的優勢項目。因此，我們帶來的聚丙烯部門，實際上是聚丙烯市場的一個相當低的點，為了盈利，在周期最低點啟動的全新套件的正收益是，我認為，證明了我們正在投資和上線的項目的實力。

We'll go next to Alastair Syme with Citi.

我們將與 Citi 一起去 Alastair Syme 旁邊。

I wonder if I could just ask about unit depreciation trends. There's quite a big change first quarter versus fourth quarter in depreciation. Is there some sort of portfolio effect in here that we should be picking up? And how does that rate through the year, do you think?

我想知道我是否可以只詢問單位折舊趨勢。第一季度與第四季度的折舊相比有很大變化。這裡是否存在某種我們應該了解的投資組合效應？你認為這一年的比率如何？

Sure. I'm happy to answer that. What you tend to see in depreciation is some ebbs and flows associated with our asset management activities. And so when we're selling assets, sometimes, we're taking a small impairment that runs through depreciation. And so I'd say you kind of have to take a step back from that noise in depreciation. If I put that to the side, the company has run about, I'll call it, $19 billion, $20 billion annually in depreciation and amortization. So that's how I think about it.

當然。我很樂意回答這個問題。您傾向於在折舊中看到的是與我們的資產管理活動相關的一些潮起潮落。因此，當我們出售資產時，有時，我們會通過折舊進行小額減值。所以我想說你必須從貶值的噪音中退後一步。如果我把它放在一邊，公司每年的折舊和攤銷費用約為 190 億美元，我稱之為 200 億美元。這就是我的想法。

We'll go next to Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

我們將與 RBC 一起前往 Biraj Borkhataria。

I just wanted to follow up on trading because there's been various press reports about Exxon wanting to build up its capabilities in asset optimization and trading. And I was just wondering where you are in that journey. Because obviously, we've seen some exceptional volatility in 2022 and early this year across oil and gas. And if I look at some of the numbers from some of your peers, it looks like that those businesses, the asset optimization could add up to 5% on ROCE in an exceptional environment. So you obviously have a big advantage with your refining footprint and your asset base.

我只是想跟進交易，因為有各種媒體報導稱埃克森美孚希望增強其在資產優化和交易方面的能力。我只是想知道你在那段旅程中的位置。因為很明顯，我們已經看到 2022 年和今年年初石油和天然氣行業出現了一些異常波動。如果我看一下你們一些同行的一些數字，看起來那些企業，在特殊環境下，資產優化可以使 ROCE 增加 5%。因此，您的煉油足跡和資產基礎顯然具有很大優勢。

I'm just wondering how sort of vigorously are you pursuing this opportunity? And how long do you expect it to take to get to where you want to be on the trading front?

我只是想知道你是如何積極地追求這個機會的？您預計需要多長時間才能到達您想要的交易位置？

Sure. Biraj, thanks for the question. I think putting aside the press reports or the media, we've talked about this, I think, starting back in 2018. And what triggered our emphasis on China trade, and the emphasis that we're putting on trade, is the reorganization that we made coming out of the functional organizational construct into value chains. And as you move in the value chains, the opportunity to trade along that value chain and generate insights and advantage along with value chain changes pretty dramatically.

當然。 Biraj，謝謝你的提問。我認為拋開新聞報導或媒體不談，我認為我們從 2018 年就開始討論這個問題。引發我們對中國貿易的重視，以及我們對貿易的重視，是重組我們從職能組織結構中脫穎而出，進入價值鏈。當您在價值鏈中移動時，沿著該價值鏈進行交易並隨著價值鏈產生洞察力和優勢的機會會發生巨大變化。

And so that move to a value chain construct that we had early on between refining and downstream, that -- we now have that with our Product Solutions organization, we've now integrated our Upstream into those value chains. And so we've got a really streamlined and good view of the marketplace. And so we can now trade all along the entire length of the value chain, we can trade across those value chains. And then obviously, we can take advantage of the global footprint, as you referenced, and trade along that global footprint and arbitrage between the markets.

因此，轉向了我們早期在精煉和下游之間建立的價值鏈結構，我們現在有了我們的產品解決方案組織，我們現在已經將我們的上游整合到這些價值鏈中。因此，我們對市場有了真正精簡和良好的看法。因此，我們現在可以在整個價值鏈上進行貿易，我們可以跨這些價值鏈進行貿易。然後很明顯，正如您所提到的，我們可以利用全球足跡，並沿著全球足跡和市場之間的套利進行交易。

And so I think our organizational construct today gives us a much better line of sight and opportunity to optimize in the trading space. So we started growing that in 2018. That has been what I would say is on a continuum of growth. We like what we see there. We like -- we brought talent in there. We've had -- we've traded for a long time. We just gave the trading organizations within the company some different objective statements, and they've done really well responding to that, bringing value to the bottom line.

因此，我認為我們今天的組織結構為我們提供了更好的視線和機會來優化交易空間。所以我們在 2018 年開始增長。這就是我要說的連續增長。我們喜歡我們在那裡看到的東西。我們喜歡 - 我們帶來了人才。我們已經 - 我們已經交易了很長時間。我們剛剛向公司內部的貿易組織提供了一些不同的目標陳述，他們對此做出了很好的回應，為底線帶來了價值。

And what we just announced is taking the trading organizations that today are somewhat dispersed through the organization and consolidating those into one centralized trading organization for the whole of the corporation. We think that makes a lot of sense. We did a lot of work over the last couple of years to validate what we thought the opportunity size was there and what would be needed to get after that. And we're now, I'd say, in execution mode with respect to putting the organization together, putting in the support systems, bringing in the talent, developing the talent and growing the talent in that space.

我們剛剛宣布的是，將今天分散在整個組織中的貿易組織合併為一個集中的貿易組織，供整個公司使用。我們認為這很有意義。在過去的幾年裡，我們做了很多工作來驗證我們認為存在的機會大小以及之後需要得到什麼。我想說，我們現在處於執行模式，將組織放在一起，建立支持系統，引進人才，發展人才，並在該領域培養人才。

And so I would just think of it as a progression, a continuation with what we believe is a huge opportunity. And we're going to do that in a very thoughtful, controlled pace, but one that is very focused on significantly growing the value proposition there.

因此，我只是將其視為一種進步，一種我們認為是巨大機遇的延續。我們將以一種非常周到、可控的步伐來做到這一點，但要非常專注於顯著提高那裡的價值主張。

Really around our footprint. This is not about going out and taking speculative positions, this is about going out and optimizing, given the asset base that we have, the value chains that we're participating in, taking the insights generated from running those businesses and the opportunities that come with those insights and transacting on them. That's what the organization is going to be doing. And like I said, even in this short time, we've seen some really good results. I think we've got a clear line of sight to some additional ones.

真正圍繞著我們的足跡。這不是要走出去並採取投機頭寸，而是要走出去並優化，考慮到我們擁有的資產基礎，我們參與的價值鏈，從經營這些業務中獲得的見解以及隨之而來的機會有了這些見解並根據它們進行交易。這就是該組織將要做的事情。就像我說的，即使在這麼短的時間內，我們也看到了一些非常好的結果。我想我們已經清楚地看到了一些額外的問題。

And that -- the value of that opportunity will manifest itself in our business. That the -- this is really around trading on the value created through the transformation of molecules and developing products that people want and then moving those products around the world. And so that platform gives our traders a great base to optimize off of. That's where we'll see the value accrue.

那 - 這個機會的價值將體現在我們的業務中。這實際上是圍繞通過分子轉化和開發人們想要的產品創造的價值進行交易，然後將這些產品轉移到世界各地。因此，該平台為我們的交易員提供了一個很好的優化基礎。這就是我們將看到價值累積的地方。

That's very helpful. Just if possible, I had a quick follow-up. Does that change at all the way you look to manage your cash balances going forward? I'm thinking about relative to prior cycles. If you have a higher kind of exposure to trading, maybe you would like to run with a higher cash [balance]. Am I wrong in that? Or is there -- any color would be helpful.

這很有幫助。如果可能的話，我有一個快速的跟進。這是否會改變您未來管理現金餘額的方式？我在考慮相對於之前的周期。如果你有更高的交易敞口，也許你想用更高的現金[餘額]運行。我錯了嗎？或者有沒有——任何顏色都會有幫助。

So we obviously take the company's working capital needs into consideration as we think about our balance sheet and our cash balance, All else held equal, a bigger company means a bigger working capital needs. So that's how I would think about it.

因此，當我們考慮資產負債表和現金餘額時，我們顯然會考慮公司的營運資金需求，在其他條件相同的情況下，更大的公司意味著更大的營運資金需求。所以這就是我的想法。

I'd also say, as it relates to trading generally, I mean, there's some near term, I would say, working capital that has to be brought in mind in terms of the trading organization. The profits that come through trading are different quarter-to-quarter, but I'd say year-to-year, pretty steady.

我還要說，因為它與一般交易有關，我的意思是，我想說，就貿易組織而言，必須考慮到一些近期的營運資金。通過交易獲得的利潤每個季度都不同，但我會說每年都非常穩定。

We'll go next to Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們將與 Scotiabank 的 Paul Cheng 一起去。

Darren, can you give us an update where you are in Mozambique and also Papua New Guinea LNG? In terms of the -- Papua New Guinea is the expansion part.

達倫，你能告訴我們你在莫桑比克和巴布亞新幾內亞液化天然氣的最新情況嗎？就 -- 巴布亞新幾內亞而言，是擴展部分。

Yes. I think just I'd speak to maybe the LNG portfolio as a whole. We're making good progress there. I'd say specifically, and working through project concepts and designs and making sure that we're developing projects that are going to be on that left-hand side of the cost of supply curve. We're bringing on production that is very competitive in the marketplace to make sure that, for the long term, we have a robust supply point there.

是的。我想我只是想談談整個液化天然氣投資組合。我們在那裡取得了很好的進展。我會具體說，並通過項目概念和設計工作，並確保我們正在開發的項目將位於供應曲線成本的左側。我們正在生產在市場上非常有競爭力的產品，以確保從長遠來看，我們在那裡有一個強大的供應點。

I think good progress in both PNG and Mozambique with respect to that. We've had good progress with the government in PNG in terms of getting the agreements that we need signed and helping us move forward. We're working with our partner there, Total. So feel good about the progress that we've got there -- we're making there.

我認為巴布亞新幾內亞和莫桑比克在這方面都取得了良好進展。在簽署我們需要的協議和幫助我們向前發展方面，我們與巴布亞新幾內亞政府取得了良好進展。我們正在與那裡的合作夥伴 Total 合作。因此，對我們取得的進展感到滿意——我們正在取得進展。

And then with Mozambique, obviously been on hold for a while given some of the challenges there. And we'll continue to keep a close eye on that. And as the situation improves and we feel comfortable that we can successfully go in there and develop the project, we'll take steps to go do that in conjunction with Total and the work that they're doing there.

然後是莫桑比克，考慮到那裡的一些挑戰，顯然被擱置了一段時間。我們將繼續密切關注這一點。隨著情況的改善，我們感到很自在，我們可以成功地進入那裡並開發項目，我們將採取措施與 Total 和他們在那裡所做的工作一起去做。

Darren, can I ask? In Mozambique, Total seems to be optimistic about the security on the ground there, just working through the on the cost structure with the contractor. And do you guys still have concern on security? Or that you are going through the similar process with Total on the cost structure side?

達倫，我可以問一下嗎？在莫桑比克，道達爾似乎對當地的安全狀況持樂觀態度，只是通過與承包商的成本結構進行合作。你們還擔心安全問題嗎？還是您在成本結構方面正在經歷與 Total 類似的過程？

Yes. We work very closely with Total, obviously, given the same exposures and the work that we're doing there together. So I'd tell you, it's kind of a hand-in-hand approach that we're taking there, sharing information. We've had our own security folks out there assessing the situation.

是的。顯然，我們與 Total 的合作非常密切，因為我們有相同的曝光率和我們在那裡所做的工作。所以我會告訴你，這是我們在那裡採取的一種手拉手的方式，共享信息。我們有自己的安全人員在那裡評估情況。

I would say our assessment is very consistent with Total's assessment. We don't see a lot of difference between what the conclusions they're coming up with and our conclusion. So we do like the progress that we've seen there. Obviously, we need to be convinced that, that will sustain that progress. And today, I feel pretty optimistic about that.

我想說我們的評估與道達爾的評估非常一致。我們認為他們得出的結論與我們的結論之間沒有太大區別。所以我們確實喜歡我們在那裡看到的進步。顯然，我們需要確信，這將維持這一進展。今天，我對此感到非常樂觀。

Okay. I think that, that completes our Q. So thank you, everybody, for your questions today. We will post the transcript of our Q&A session on our new investor website in a few days.

好的。我認為，這就完成了我們的問題。謝謝大家今天提出的問題。幾天后，我們將在我們的新投資者網站上發布問答環節的記錄。

Additionally, we look forward to connecting again on May 31 for our Annual Shareholders' Meeting.

此外，我們期待在 5 月 31 日的年度股東大會上再次連接。

Have a nice weekend, everyone. And now let me turn it back to the operator to conclude our call.

大家週末愉快。現在讓我把它轉回接線員以結束我們的通話。

This concludes today's call. We thank everyone again for their participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們再次感謝大家的參與。