埃克森美孚 (XOM) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Exxon Mobil Corporation Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Ms. Jennifer Driscoll. Please go ahead, ma'am.

大家好，歡迎參加埃克森美孚公司 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。在這個時候，我想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁詹妮弗·德里斯科爾女士。請繼續，女士。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our third quarter earnings call today at our new time of 7:30 a.m. Central. I'm Jennifer Driscoll, Vice President, Investor Relations. Joining me are Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kathy Mikells, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

大家，早安。感謝您在今天中部時間上午 7:30 參加我們的第三季度財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Driscoll。加入我的還有董事長兼首席執行官達倫·伍茲；和高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Kathy Mikells。

This live presentation, our prerecorded remarks and the news release are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Shortly, Darren will provide brief opening comments and reference a few slides from the prerecorded presentation. This allows us more time for questions before we conclude at 8:30 a.m. Central Time.

此現場演示、我們預先錄製的評論和新聞稿可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲得。很快，Darren 將提供簡短的開場評論，並參考預先錄製的演示文稿中的幾張幻燈片。這讓我們有更多時間在中部時間上午 8:30 結束之前提問。

During the presentation, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We encourage you to read our cautionary statement on Slide 2. For additional information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to these comments, please refer to our most recent Form 10-Ks and 10-Qs. Please note, we also provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides.

在演示過程中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響。我們鼓勵您閱讀我們關於幻燈片 2 的警告聲明。有關適用於這些評論的風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們最近的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表。請注意，我們還在收益幻燈片末尾提供了補充信息。

Now please turn to Slide 3, and I'll turn it over to Darren.

現在請轉到幻燈片 3，我將把它交給達倫。

Thanks, Jennifer. Good morning, everyone. Before covering our earnings highlights, I want to begin by recognizing the men and women of ExxonMobil. While this quarter's results were clearly helped by a favorable market, fact is we're in this position because of the hard work and commitment of our people over the past few years. Where others pulled back in the face of uncertainty and a historic slowdown, retreating and retrenching, this company moved forward, continuing to invest and build to help meet the demands we see today and position the company for long-term success in each of our businesses.

謝謝，詹妮弗。大家，早安。在介紹我們的收益亮點之前，我想首先認識埃克森美孚的男性和女性。雖然本季度的業績明顯得益於有利的市場，但事實上，我們處於這一位置是因為我們員工在過去幾年中的辛勤工作和承諾。當其他人在面臨不確定性和歷史性放緩、退縮和緊縮時退縮時，這家公司向前邁進，繼續投資和建設，以幫助滿足我們今天看到的需求，並使公司在我們的每項業務中取得長期成功.

We understand how important our role is in providing the energy and products the world needs. And while the market has clearly been a factor, results we report today reflect that deep commitment. I mentioned this because it is at the heart of our company and its culture. We know the role we play and are incredibly proud of it. We work together as a team, confident in our mission and determined to do our part in meeting the world's energy needs and leading the way in a thoughtful energy transition.

我們了解我們的角色在提供世界所需的能源和產品方面的重要性。雖然市場顯然是一個因素，但我們今天報告的結果反映了這一堅定承諾。我提到這一點是因為它是我們公司及其文化的核心。我們知道我們所扮演的角色，並為此感到無比自豪。我們作為一個團隊一起工作，對我們的使命充滿信心，並決心在滿足世界能源需求和引領深思熟慮的能源轉型方面儘自己的一份力量。

Overall, I'm pleased with our third quarter operational and financial results. Higher natural gas realizations, strong refinery throughput, robust refining margins and rigorous cost control drove our earnings improvement. We continue to increase production to address the needs of consumers, which contributed to earnings and cash flow growth, a stronger balance sheet and significant value creation. Our results also reflected the outstanding work of our teams across the world who operate our facilities reliably at high utilization rates.

總體而言，我對我們第三季度的運營和財務業績感到滿意。更高的天然氣變現、強勁的煉油產量、強勁的煉油利潤率和嚴格的成本控制推動了我們的盈利改善。我們繼續增加產量以滿足消費者的需求，這有助於盈利和現金流的增長、更強大的資產負債表和顯著的價值創造。我們的結果還反映了我們在世界各地的團隊的出色工作，他們以高利用率可靠地運營我們的設施。

Let me highlight a few examples of our progress. First, Energy Products. We boosted overall refinery throughput to its highest quarterly level since 2008, responding to tight market conditions. And we continue to make progress on the Beaumont refinery expansion, which will increase capacity by about 250,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023.

讓我強調一些我們取得進展的例子。一是能源產品。我們將煉油廠的整體吞吐量提升至 2008 年以來的最高季度水平，以應對緊張的市場狀況。我們繼續在博蒙特煉油廠擴建方面取得進展，這將在 2023 年第一季度每天增加約 250,000 桶的產能。

We also increased production from our high-return assets in the Permian and Guyana. Our production in the Permian Basin reached nearly 560,000 oil equivalent barrels per day, building on our strong growth from last year. We grew our production in Guyana to 360,000 barrels per day during the third quarter, with Liza Phase 1 and 2, both exceeding design capacity. We also had continued exploration success with 2 additional discoveries in the quarter. Earlier this month, first LNG production was achieved from Mozambique's Coral South floating LNG development, contributing new supply amid growing demand for LNG globally.

我們還提高了二疊紀和圭亞那高回報資產的產量。我們在二疊紀盆地的產量達到每天近 560,000 桶油當量，這是我們去年強勁增長的基礎。我們在第三季度將圭亞那的產量提高到每天 360,000 桶，其中 Liza 第一期和第二期均超過了設計產能。我們還在本季度取得了 2 個額外發現的持續勘探成功。本月早些時候，莫桑比克的珊瑚南浮式液化天然氣開發項目實現了第一批液化天然氣生產，在全球液化天然氣需求不斷增長的情況下貢獻了新的供應。

We continue to expect total upstream production of 3.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day for the year. Looking longer term, we remain on track to grow low-cost production and meet our 2027 plan, with more than 90% of our Upstream investments, generating over 10% returns at $35 per barrel.

我們繼續預計全年上游總產量為每天 370 萬桶油當量。從長遠來看，我們仍有望發展低成本生產並實現我們的 2027 年計劃，我們的上游投資超過 90%，以每桶 35 美元的價格產生超過 10% 的回報。

Our ability to increase production while reducing cost, improves our competitive position, benefits consumers and generates capital to fund meaningful investments, demonstrated by one of our recent press releases, announcing that our low carbon solutions business signed its first and the largest of its kind, customer contract to capture and store up to 2 million metric tons per year of CO2.

我們在降低成本的同時增加產量的能力，提高了我們的競爭地位，使消費者受益，並為有意義的投資提供資金，我們最近的一份新聞稿證明了這一點，宣布我們的低碳解決方案業務簽署了它的第一個也是同類業務中規模最大的一個，客戶簽訂了每年捕獲和儲存多達 200 萬噸二氧化碳的合同。

This marks an important milestone in developing our newest business. It's also a good example of how we're supporting other companies in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. We look forward to sharing more about our progress in developing attractive low-carbon solutions business in December as part of our corporate plan discussions.

這標誌著我們發展最新業務的一個重要里程碑。這也是我們如何支持其他公司減少溫室氣體排放的一個很好的例子。作為我們公司計劃討論的一部分，我們期待在 12 月分享更多關於我們在開發有吸引力的低碳解決方案業務方面取得的進展。

We continue to actively manage our portfolio, announcing the sale of our interest in the Aera oil production operations in California and our refinery in Billings, Montana. Proceeds from divestments completed year-to-date totaled $4 billion as we captured incremental value for these noncore assets in today's higher price environment. These sales enable us to concentrate on our higher-value advantaged assets.

我們繼續積極管理我們的投資組合，宣佈出售我們在加利福尼亞州的 Aera 石油生產業務和我們在蒙大拿州比林斯的煉油廠的權益。由於我們在當今價格較高的環境中為這些非核心資產獲得了增量價值，因此今年迄今已完成的剝離收益總計 40 億美元。這些銷售使我們能夠專注於我們更高價值的優勢資產。

Finally, you may have heard earlier this month that with 2 decrees, the Russian government has unilaterally terminated ExxonMobil's interest in Sakhalin-1 and transferred the project to a Russian operator. In March, we stated our intention to exit the Sakhalin-1 project and discontinue our role as operator and took an impairment of approximately $3.4 billion at the time.

最後，您可能在本月早些時候聽說過，俄羅斯政府通過 2 項法令單方面終止了埃克森美孚在 Sakhalin-1 的權益，並將該項目轉讓給俄羅斯運營商。 3 月，我們表示打算退出 Sakhalin-1 項目並終止我們作為運營商的角色，當時損失了約 34 億美元。

While our affiliate was in force majeure due to the unprecedented impact of global sanctions, we continue to make every attempt to engage in good faith discussions with the Russian government and all Sakhalin-1 partners to effect a smooth exit to the benefit of all parties. Our priority all along has been to protect employees, the environment and the integrity of operations at the facility.

儘管由於全球製裁的空前影響，我們的關聯公司處於不可抗力狀態，但我們將繼續盡一切努力與俄羅斯政府和所有 Sakhalin-1 合作夥伴進行真誠的討論，以實現順利退出，以造福各方。我們一直以來的首要任務是保護員工、環境和工廠運營的完整性。

While the recent decrees violate our rights in Russia established by our production sharing agreement and interrupted the exit process we were working, it did not prevent us from safely winding down our operations. We're proud of our employees and the many significant achievements they led since 1996, including the most recent challenge of the government takeover. We do not anticipate any new material costs associated with the exit.

雖然最近的法令侵犯了我們在俄羅斯根據我們的生產分成協議確立的權利，併中斷了我們正在進行的退出過程，但這並沒有阻止我們安全地結束我們的業務。我們為我們的員工以及他們自 1996 年以來所取得的許多重大成就感到自豪，其中包括政府接管的最新挑戰。我們預計退出不會產生任何新的材料成本。

This next slide illustrates the variability the industry is experiencing across the markets most relevant to our business. In the third quarter, crude prices moved back within the upper end of the 10-year range as higher supply slightly exceeded demand. Natural gas prices rose to record levels in the third quarter, reflecting concerns in Europe about the withdrawal of Russian supply as well as efforts to build inventory ahead of winter. While natural gas prices recently moderated, they remain well above the 10-year historical range.

下一張幻燈片說明了行業在與我們業務最相關的市場中所經歷的變化。第三季度，原油價格回落至 10 年區間的上限，因為供應量略高於需求量。第三季度天然氣價格上漲至創紀錄水平，反映出歐洲對俄羅斯供應退出的擔憂以及在冬季前建立庫存的努力。儘管天然氣價格最近有所放緩，但仍遠高於 10 年的歷史範圍。

In the U.S., prices increased by about 15%, driven by higher summer cooling demand and inventory concerns. Refining margins remained well above the 10-year range due to inflated diesel crack spreads, resulting from expensive natural gas and high demand for diesel. Higher refinery runs and flat demand for gasoline in the U.S. resulted in refining margins declining from the second quarter. In contrast, global chemical margins fell below the bottom of the 10-year range, reflecting weakening global demand. Margins in North America and Europe have softened, with regional pricing moving closer to global parity as demand and logistics constraints relaxed.

在美國，受夏季降溫需求增加和庫存擔憂的推動，價格上漲了約 15%。由於昂貴的天然氣和對柴油的高需求導致柴油裂解價差膨脹，煉油利潤率仍遠高於 10 年範圍。美國煉油廠開工增加和汽油需求持平導致煉油利潤率從第二季度開始下降。相比之下，全球化學品利潤率跌破 10 年區間底部，反映出全球需求疲軟。北美和歐洲的利潤率已經走軟，隨著需求和物流限制的放鬆，區域定價接近全球平價。

Asia Pacific remained in bottom-of-cycle conditions as COVID restrictions continue to suppress demand in China. Despite these challenges, our chemical products business delivered another solid quarter on improved product mix, strong reliability and good cost control.

由於 COVID 限制繼續抑制中國的需求，亞太地區仍處於週期底部。儘管存在這些挑戰，我們的化工產品業務在改進產品組合、強大的可靠性和良好的成本控制方面又實現了一個穩健的季度。

Before leaving this chart, I want to make one other very important point, the value of a diversified portfolio. With just the 3 quarters shown, you can see how the value has shifted across our different businesses. Our diversified portfolio has served us well during the volatile swings in prices and margins across the various businesses. As the energy system evolves along an uncertain path, the investments in our broad portfolio of advantaged businesses, including our Low Carbon Solutions business will play an even more important role in capturing value in outperforming competition in the very near term, and across a much longer time horizon.

在離開這張圖表之前，我想提出另一個非常重要的觀點，即多元化投資組合的價值。僅顯示 3 個季度，您就可以看到價值在我們不同業務中的變化情況。我們多元化的投資組合在各種業務的價格和利潤率波動期間為我們提供了良好的服務。隨著能源系統沿著不確定的道路發展，對我們廣泛的優勢業務組合（包括我們的低碳解決方案業務）的投資將在短期內和更長的時間內在超越競爭中獲取價值方面發揮更重要的作用時間範圍。

Before I turn it over to Jennifer, let me recap our key takeaways on the quarter. We continue to progress our advantaged investments, drove additional structural efficiencies and created sustainable solutions that deliver the energy and products everyone needs. This has resulted in strong earnings growth, bolstered by higher refining throughput and cost control which more than offset margin declines.

在我把它交給詹妮弗之前，讓我回顧一下我們在本季度的主要收穫。我們繼續推進我們的優勢投資，推動額外的結構效率，並創建可持續的解決方案，提供每個人都需要的能源和產品。這導致了強勁的盈利增長，這得益於更高的煉油吞吐量和成本控制，這足以抵消利潤率的下降。

We've continued to strengthen our industry-leading portfolio and increased production from our high-return assets in Guyana and the Permian. In addition, earlier this month, our low carbon solutions business signed a largest-of-its-kind customer contract to capture and store up to 2 million metric tons per year of CO2. This is a strong indication of the growth opportunity we have in this new business.

我們繼續加強我們行業領先的產品組合，並增加我們在圭亞那和二疊紀的高回報資產的產量。此外，本月早些時候，我們的低碳解決方案業務簽署了一份規模最大的客戶合同，每年可捕獲和儲存多達 200 萬噸的二氧化碳。這有力地表明了我們在這項新業務中擁有的增長機會。

We've also continued to actively manage our portfolio, announcing the Aera Upstream and Billings refinery divestments and closing the sales of our Romanian Upstream affiliate and XTO Energy Canada. Our diversified portfolio of advantaged businesses and robust balance sheet provide a strong foundation to invest in value-accretive projects and drive attractive shareholder returns through the cycle.

我們還繼續積極管理我們的投資組合，宣布剝離 Aera Upstream 和 Billings 煉油廠，並關閉我們在羅馬尼亞上游子公司和 XTO Energy Canada 的銷售。我們多元化的優勢業務組合和穩健的資產負債表為投資增值項目和在整個週期內推動有吸引力的股東回報奠定了堅實的基礎。

In aggregate, the work we are doing today is delivering critical products in a very short market. Longer term, we're delivering improvements that strengthen our structural advantages, meet society's growing needs for energy and modern products, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and double earnings and cash flow by 2027 versus 2019. In short, profitably leading our industry toward a net zero future. Thank you.

總的來說，我們今天所做的工作是在一個非常短的市場中提供關鍵產品。從長遠來看，我們正在提供改進，以加強我們的結構優勢，滿足社會對能源和現代產品不斷增長的需求，減少溫室氣體排放，到 2027 年與 2019 年相比，收益和現金流量翻一番。簡而言之，以盈利方式引領我們的行業走向淨零未來。謝謝你。

Thank you, Darren. Before we start our Q&A session, I have 2 important announcements to share with you all. Please mark your calendar for our annual Corporate Plan Update scheduled for Thursday, December 8 at 8:30 a.m. Central Standard Time, where I'll be joined by Kathy Mikells to share the details of our corporate plan. Additionally, please keep an eye out for our 2022 Advancing Climate Solutions report. We expect to publish it online in mid-December.

謝謝你，達倫。在我們開始問答環節之前，我有兩個重要的公告要與大家分享。請在您的日曆上標記我們在中部標準時間 12 月 8 日星期四上午 8:30 進行的年度公司計劃更新，我將與 Kathy Mikells 一起分享我們公司計劃的詳細信息。此外，請留意我們的 2022 年推進氣候解決方案報告。我們預計將在 12 月中旬在線發布。

Now with that, we'll begin our Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) I'll turn it back to you, Katie.

現在，我們將開始我們的問答環節。 （操作員說明）我會把它還給你的，凱蒂。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們將回答來自摩根士丹利的 Devin McDermott 的第一個問題。

So they were very strong results this quarter in the Downstream business, and you called out throughput, volume and mix as some of the factors there. But I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more in detail about some of the drivers here.

因此，本季度下游業務的業績非常強勁，您將吞吐量、數量和組合作為其中的一些因素。但我想知道你是否可以在這裡更詳細地談談一些驅動程序。

And then just more broadly, there's a lot of moving pieces in the macro picture at the moment of demand, SPR drives, China reopening, the EU embargo and Russian crew, just to name a few. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about your outlook for refining as we head into next year as well.

然後更廣泛地說，在需求時刻，SPR 驅動器、中國重新開放、歐盟禁運和俄羅斯船員等宏觀圖景中有很多動態因素，僅舉幾例。我想知道你是否可以在我們進入明年的時候多談談你對煉油的展望。

Sure. Why don't I take the first question and maybe give you the macro. So if you look overall at our energy products business, obviously, it was a really strong quarter. That was really, from our perspective, led by the volume increases we saw. So we had record North American throughput. We had across the globe, the best results on throughput that we had seen since in 2008. And so if you look at the earnings bridge in terms of what happened quarter-to-quarter, that was worth almost $1 billion kind of improvement as a big driver in the results for energy products.

當然。為什麼我不回答第一個問題，也許給你宏。因此，如果您從整體上看我們的能源產品業務，顯然，這是一個非常強勁的季度。從我們的角度來看，這確實是由我們看到的交易量增長帶動的。所以我們有創紀錄的北美吞吐量。我們在全球範圍內取得了自 2008 年以來我們所看到的最佳吞吐量結果。因此，如果您從季度到季度發生的情況來看收入橋樑，那將價值近 10 億美元的改進作為能源產品業績的主要推動力。

If you then look at what's going on in margins, obviously, margins softened in the quarter. They still remain well above what the 10-year average would be. If we look at those softer margins, they were really driven by downward pressure in gasoline margins due to lower-than-usual summer demand, specifically in the U.S. Diesel demand is continuing to be strong.

如果你再看看利潤率的情況，很明顯，本季度的利潤率有所下降。它們仍遠高於 10 年平均水平。如果我們看看這些較軟的利潤率，它們實際上是由汽油利潤率的下行壓力推動的，原因是夏季需求低於往常，特別是在美國，柴油需求持續強勁。

We then had some offsets to that pressure that we saw on margin. And specifically, if you look at some of the positive offsets we saw, we saw some favorable timing-driven impacts. We try to separate this, so you can kind of see it, separate it. Part of that was just mark-to-market on our open derivative portfolio, that was worth about $250 million favorable impact in the quarter. Other price timing impacts were worth about $600 million favorable impact in the quarter. That was really driven by derivatives that we use to ensure ratable pricing of refinery crude runs.

然後，我們對保證金上的壓力進行了一些抵消。具體來說，如果你看一下我們看到的一些積極的抵消，我們會看到一些有利的時間驅動影響。我們試圖把它分開，這樣你就可以看到它，把它分開。其中一部分只是我們開放衍生品投資組合的按市值計價，在本季度產生了約 2.5 億美元的有利影響。其他價格時機影響在本季度價值約 6 億美元的有利影響。這實際上是由我們用來確保煉油廠原油運行定價的衍生品推動的。

So if you put that to the side, we delivered about $5 billion in earnings outside of those price timing benefits in the quarter. And in addition to the other offsets for softening refining margins, we saw very strong aromatics margins. We did a good job on revenue management, so we saw positive benefits there.

因此，如果你把它放在一邊，我們在本季度的這些價格時機優勢之外實現了約 50 億美元的收益。除了煉油利潤疲軟的其他補償外，我們還看到了非常強勁的芳烴利潤。我們在收入管理方面做得很好，因此我們看到了積極的收益。

And then overall, I would say, end-to-end, supply chain optimization, right, both through procurement and logistics and trading benefits on top of that. That's really embedded in the base business. And so we expect to see benefits out of those areas. They're not always ratable every quarter. But if you look over time, those benefits clearly accrue to the business.

然後總體而言，我會說，端到端的供應鏈優化，正確的，通過採購和物流以及最重要的貿易利益。這確實嵌入在基礎業務中。因此，我們希望看到這些領域的好處。他們並不總是每個季度都可以評價。但是，如果您隨著時間的推移，這些好處顯然會為企業帶來好處。

Yes. And I'd just add, Devin, maybe a couple of points on top of what Kathy just explained. If you step back, you'll recall that we, in 2018, came up with a value chain concept that we're using in the Downstream and really looking to optimize from crude coming in the gate all the way to products being delivered at our customers' doorstep. And the work the organization has been doing to optimize that value chain has resulted in additional value, and I think continues to make that business much more robust than what I would say the industry average is. Kathy mentioned the trading, which has become an integral part of that value chain optimization step.

是的。我想補充一點，德文，也許是在凱西剛剛解釋的內容之上的幾點。如果您退後一步，您會記得，我們在 2018 年提出了一個價值鏈概念，我們正在下游使用該概念，並真正尋求從進入大門的原油一直到在我們交付的產品進行優化客戶家門口。該組織為優化該價值鏈所做的工作已經產生了額外的價值，我認為繼續使該業務比我所說的行業平均水平更加穩健。 Kathy 提到了交易，它已成為價值鏈優化步驟中不可或缺的一部分。

And then I would add finally that a lot of work has been going into making sure that we are positioning those facilities and our Downstream in our refineries to be robust to an evolving demand landscape. And so if you look at where we are investing in refining, it's for sites that have integrated chemicals, lubricants and fast-growing clean fuels business. And we think that gives us a structural advantage versus broader industry.

然後我最後要補充的是，為了確保我們在煉油廠中定位這些設施和我們的下游，以適應不斷變化的需求環境，我們已經做了大量工作。因此，如果您查看我們在煉油方面的投資，那是針對那些整合了化學品、潤滑油和快速增長的清潔燃料業務的場地。我們認為，與更廣泛的行業相比，這為我們提供了結構性優勢。

This has been and always has been a thin margin business. And so you typically scratch through the thin low periods, which lasts for a very long time and then take advantage of some of the highs. And as a result of that thin margin business, if you look over time, certainly in the West, refining capacity has been on the decline. We actually showed a chart last quarter and again this quarter that shows that drop in refining capacity.

這一直是而且一直都是利潤微薄的業務。因此，您通常會從持續很長時間的稀薄低谷時期開始，然後利用一些高點。由於利潤微薄的業務，隨著時間的推移，當然在西方，煉油能力一直在下降。實際上，我們在上個季度和本季度再次展示了一張圖表，顯示煉油能力下降。

If you look at some of the windfall taxes that are being talked about within Europe, that's going to put additional pressure on refining margins. So there is certainly a scenario out there that says we continue to see under-investment refining, we continue to see that capacity coming out of the market. And then depending on the build side of the equation and how much capacity gets built out in the Middle East, we could see tight markets for some time to come. Of course, we don't plan for that. We plan for thin margins and very tough conditions and then hope for the best.

如果你看看歐洲內部正在討論的一些暴利稅，那將對煉油利潤率施加額外的壓力。因此，肯定存在一種情況，即我們繼續看到投資不足的煉油，我們繼續看到產能退出市場。然後根據等式的建設方面以及在中東建設了多少產能，我們可能會看到未來一段時間市場吃緊。當然，我們不打算這樣做。我們為微薄的利潤和非常艱難的條件做計劃，然後寄希望於最好的結果。

We will take our next question from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

我們將向巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai 提出我們的下一個問題。

For our question and only question, bad habit here, it's on the balance sheet and cash returns. So I guess gross debt to cap now is just below the target range. Cash is now at $30 billion, which is at the top end of, I believe, the $20 billion to $30 billion level that you cited before that you want to maintain over time. So I guess what are the implications on the trajectory of the buyback?

對於我們的問題和唯一的問題，這裡的壞習慣，它在資產負債表和現金回報上。所以我猜現在要控制的總債務剛好低於目標範圍。現金現在為 300 億美元，我相信，這是你之前提到的 200 億至 300 億美元水平的最高端，你希望隨著時間的推移保持這一水平。所以我想這對回購的軌蹟有什麼影響？

And how are you really viewing the trade-off between potentially accelerating buyback sooner rather than later, given just the mechanical synergies of the dividend and then just being more aggressive on dividend increases, and there was a nice bump announced this morning to the dividend.

考慮到股息的機械協同作用，然後只是更積極地增加股息，你如何真正看待可能加速回購之間的權衡取捨，今天早上宣布了股息的大幅上漲。

Sure. So first of all, I'd say our capital allocation priorities continue to be consistent and we're executing well against that. We've got to continue to make sure we're investing in the business. It's a long-cycle business and that consistency is really critical. We look for accretive acquisition opportunities. We're pretty disciplined in that area. And you've obviously seen us more recently looking to execute a number of divestitures in what's been a pretty good market for that activity.

當然。因此，首先，我想說我們的資本分配優先級繼續保持一致，並且我們在這方面表現良好。我們必須繼續確保我們正在投資這項業務。這是一個長周期的業務，一致性非常關鍵。我們尋找增值的收購機會。我們在這方面很有紀律。而且您顯然已經看到我們最近希望在該活動的一個相當不錯的市場中執行一些資產剝離。

We are really focused on ensuring that we've got a fortress balance sheet that gives us all the firepower and flexibility that we need to operate through the cycles and be really prepared for the next downturn. And then we're also really focused on ensuring that we're sharing our success with shareholders.

我們真正專注於確保我們擁有一個堡壘資產負債表，為我們提供在周期中運作所需的所有火力和靈活性，並為下一次經濟衰退做好準備。然後我們也真正專注於確保我們與股東分享我們的成功。

We're trying to get that balance right. You obviously referenced the fact that we increased our quarterly dividend by $0.03, so that will be reflected in the fourth quarter dividend coming up here shortly. We're in the process of executing a $30 billion -- up to $30 billion share repurchase program through 2023. We are on track to get $15 billion of that program done by the end of the year. We did about $10.5 billion in share repurchases through the third quarter.

我們正在努力實現這種平衡。您顯然提到了我們將季度股息增加了 0.03 美元的事實，因此這將反映在即將到來的第四季度股息中。我們正在執行一項 300 億美元的股票回購計劃——到 2023 年將達到 300 億美元。我們有望在今年年底前完成該計劃中的 150 億美元。我們在第三季度進行了大約 105 億美元的股票回購。

And if you look across the year, that would put us at $15 billion in dividends and about $15 billion in share repurchases. So I'd say both a pretty balanced return to our shareholders. And I think that puts us pretty well ahead of peers in terms of returning excess cash to shareholders.

如果你縱觀全年，這將使我們獲得 150 億美元的股息和約 150 億美元的股票回購。所以我會說這對我們的股東來說都是相當平衡的回報。而且我認為這使我們在向股東返還多餘現金方面遠遠領先於同行。

So we are mindful of our cash balance. We ended the quarter at about $30 billion. It is possible that our cash balance is going to float up a little bit from there depending on what the market environment continues to look like. And we will continue conversations with our Board about the share repurchase program. But right now, we're just continuing to execute our plan.

所以我們要注意我們的現金餘額。我們在本季度結束時約為 300 億美元。根據市場環境的持續情況，我們的現金餘額可能會從那里略微上升。我們將繼續與董事會就股票回購計劃進行對話。但現在，我們只是繼續執行我們的計劃。

We will take our next question from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們將向美國銀行的 Doug Leggate 提出我們的下一個問題。

Darren, I wonder if I could just ask you to opine on a kind of big picture issue. You, I think, and a number of your peers met recently with the administration relating to a number of things. I mean I think the only folks are probably not happy with your results this morning might be -- well be the administration. Can you share any thoughts you had about some of the risks presented by legislators around things like export bans on products, things of that nature, not least given how strong your Downstream profitability was this morning?

達倫，我想知道我是否可以請你就一個大問題發表意見。我認為，您和您的一些同行最近與政府會面，涉及許多事情。我的意思是，我認為今天早上唯一可能對您的結果不滿意的人可能是 - 可能是政府。您能否分享一下您對立法者提出的一些風險的想法，例如產品出口禁令等類似性質的事情，尤其是考慮到您今天早上的下游盈利能力有多強？

Yes. Doug, I'm going to probably pass on trying to predict where different governments or administrations here in the U.S. are going to go with respect to policy. We've been very explicit, I think, me, along with many of the peers in the industry around what I would say are the mechanics and the fundamentals of our industry and how it works and the implications for some of the policies being considered.

是的。道格，我可能會繼續嘗試預測美國不同政府或政府在政策方面的走向。我想，我和業內的許多同行都非常明確地表達了我要說的是我們行業的機制和基本面，以及它是如何運作的，以及對正在考慮的一些政策的影響。

And I would say that in the short term, it may solve a political problem, but it will carry all the policies that I've heard people talking about, the export bans in particular, windfall profit tax. Those will carry significant long-term negative consequences. And it's just a question of, I think, how they balance out the political equation versus what I would say are some of those fundamentals.

我想說，在短期內，它可能會解決一個政治問題，但它會承載我聽到人們談論的所有政策，特別是出口禁令，暴利稅。這些將帶來重大的長期負面後果。我認為，這只是一個問題，他們如何平衡政治等式與我所說的一些基本面。

For me, personally, for the company, what I would say is I feel like we're well positioned. Obviously, it would be a disadvantage to the industry. But I think within that disadvantage, we would find, because of our footprint, because of our diversification, an ability to position ourselves competitively with whatever policy comes down the road. And so our focus is really making sure people understand what the potential consequences of some of these policies are being considered.

對我個人而言，對公司而言，我想說的是我覺得我們處於有利位置。顯然，這對行業來說是不利的。但我認為，在這種劣勢中，我們會發現，由於我們的足跡，由於我們的多元化，我們有能力在未來的任何政策中進行競爭定位。因此，我們的重點是確保人們了解正在考慮的其中一些政策的潛在後果。

And then in parallel with that, obviously, staying very focused on where I think the root cause or the root issue here is making sure that people all around the world and here in the U.S. get affordable and reliable energy. We recognize the pain that high prices cause. Unfortunately, the market that we're in today is a function of many of the policies and some of the narrative that's floated around in the past. And we basically have been working to make sure that when needed, when the products were required, which we anticipated, you'll recall back in 2020, we made the point that the industry is under-investing. We continue to lean in into the investments to spend at a rate higher than the rest of industry, so that when the call came, we would be there to answer.

與此同時，顯然，我認為這裡的根本原因或根本問題是確保世界各地和美國的人們都能獲得負擔得起和可靠的能源。我們認識到高價格帶來的痛苦。不幸的是，我們今天所處的市場是許多政策和過去流傳的一些敘述的函數。我們基本上一直在努力確保在需要時，當需要產品時，我們預計，你會在 2020 年回想一下，我們指出該行業投資不足。我們繼續投入投資，以高於其他行業的速度進行支出，這樣當電話來臨時，我們就會在那裡接聽。

And I think the results you've seen here in the third quarter is exactly that. Those investments are paying off. We've grown our production, both in the Upstream and are growing our production in Downstream and refining business with the expansion in Beaumont and then a real focus on reliability and high throughput. And so we keep trying to reiterate that, that we're doing what we can within the boundaries of what's available to us today. And then longer term, we are making the investments that's good for the administration's constituents and good for our business.

我認為你在第三季度看到的結果就是這樣。這些投資正在得到回報。我們已經在上游增加了產量，並且正在增加我們在下游和煉油業務中的產量，並在博蒙特進行擴張，然後真正關注可靠性和高產量。因此，我們一直試圖重申，我們正在盡我們所能在我們今天可用的範圍內做我們所能做的。然後從長遠來看，我們正在進行的投資對政府的選民和我們的業務都有好處。

We'll take our next question from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們將向高盛的尼爾梅塔提出我們的下一個問題。

Darren, I would love your perspective on M&A and just how you see that fitting into the go-forward framework and specifically, around upstream consolidation but also low carbon consolidation as you've said that you want to grow that business over time to be the size of the refining and chemicals business.

達倫，我很喜歡你對併購的看法，以及你如何看待它適合前進的框架，特別是圍繞上游整合和低碳整合，因為你說過你希望隨著時間的推移發展該業務以成為煉油和化工業務的規模。

Sure. Neil, as you know, we've talked about this over the years quite a bit. And I would tell you that the whole M&A space and divestment space is something that we are constantly working. Obviously, our strategy, which you've seen us execute over the last several years is buy low, sell high. That's kind of what we're doing. We laid out a divestment program, but we took our time and were patient, waiting for market conditions to develop that would favor us as sellers. And that's what you've seen transacting here, likewise, as we look at acquisitions and opportunities constantly in the market, thinking about that and looking for it.

當然。尼爾，如你所知，這些年來我們已經討論過很多次了。我會告訴你，整個併購空間和撤資空間是我們一直在努力的事情。顯然，我們過去幾年執行的策略是低買高賣。這就是我們正在做的事情。我們制定了撤資計劃，但我們花時間耐心等待市場條件發展，這有利於我們作為賣家。這就是你在這裡看到的交易，同樣，當我們不斷關注市場上的收購和機會，思考並尋找它時。

But we've got to find opportunities where we can see a clear synergy and develop a clear competitive advantage so that we bring some unique value to the transaction. And we're evaluating and looking at that in our traditional business so I think with time, those will show up, but we'll be very selective and strategic around that. And I would say, we'll do it when the market conditions are favorable for doing that.

但我們必須找到可以看到明顯協同效應並發展明顯競爭優勢的機會，以便我們為交易帶來一些獨特的價值。我們正在我們的傳統業務中評估和研究這一點，所以我認為隨著時間的推移，這些會出現，但我們將對此非常有選擇性和戰略性。我想說，當市場條件有利於這樣做時，我們會這樣做。

On the Low Carbon Solutions, I think longer term, the concept sounds good in terms of M&A. But I would just put that in the context of this is a very immature market. And so there aren't a lot of established businesses out there today that are -- have what it takes to be successful in this space. If you think about starting an industry from scratch and what's required in terms of policy regulation, investment, connecting all the different pieces of a brand-new value chain, that's a complicated equation and fortunately, one that we think plays to our strengths.

關於低碳解決方案，我認為從長遠來看，這個概念在併購方面聽起來不錯。但我只想說這是一個非常不成熟的市場。因此，今天沒有很多成熟的企業擁有在這個領域取得成功所需的條件。如果您考慮從頭開始一個行業，以及在政策監管、投資、連接全新價值鏈的所有不同部分方面需要什麼，這是一個複雜的方程式，幸運的是，我們認為這可以發揮我們的優勢。

And the recent deal that we announced with CF Industries, for us really demonstrated that in terms of the complexity of putting together each element of that value chain to successfully come up with a deal that's value accretive and it generates profits. And it's good for the planet, it's good for our shareholders.

我們最近宣布與 CF Industries 達成的交易，對我們而言，確實證明了將價值鏈的每個元素組合在一起以成功達成一項增值並產生利潤的交易的複雜性。這對地球有好處，對我們的股東也有好處。

And so I don't know how much we'll see how that develops. I would think in the M&A space, we may, over time, see opportunities that we can uniquely leverage and then we'll bring those into the portfolio when they make sense to do that.

所以我不知道我們會看到它如何發展。我認為在併購領域，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會看到我們可以獨特地利用的機會，然後當它們有意義時，我們會將它們納入投資組合。

We'll take our next question from Stephen Richardson with Evercore ISI.

我們將回答 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Richardson 提出的下一個問題。

Darren, I appreciate all the disclosure around the CF Industries project. I was wondering if you could talk about -- it probably comes as no surprise to anybody that you announced this shortly after the IRA was passed. But also, could you talk about what needs to happen on the policy side to kind of improve that abatement curve and kind of move more projects along?

達倫，我很欣賞有關 CF Industries 項目的所有披露。我想知道你是否可以談談 - 在愛爾蘭共和軍通過後不久你宣布這一點可能對任何人來說都不足為奇。但是，您能否談談政策方面需要採取哪些措施來改善減排曲線並推動更多項目？

And then also I think in the prepared remarks, you mentioned that there's still some hurdles with permitting and -- do you see that at the local level, state level and where those might be? And then finally, if you could just address returns. How should investors think about the returns available on these projects, considering kind of policy and some of the risks around that versus some of the more conventional Upstream or Downstream projects?

然後我認為在準備好的評論中，您提到許可仍然存在一些障礙，您是否看到在地方一級，州一級以及可能在哪裡？最後，如果你能解決退貨問題。與一些更傳統的上游或下游項目相比，投資者應該如何考慮這些項目的可用回報，考慮到政策類型和一些風險？

Sure. Yes, maybe to start with the first point you made around the timing of that. While certainly, the IRA contributed to the value proposition there, I would say that, that project and that deal was being worked well before that and would work with the existing policy. It's been enhanced with the new policy, obviously.

當然。是的，也許從你在時間安排上提出的第一點開始。當然，愛爾蘭共和軍為那裡的價值主張做出了貢獻，但我想說，該項目和該交易在此之前運行良好，並將與現有政策配合使用。很明顯，新政策增強了它。

And what I would just say with respect to what that IRA does, it essentially opens the aperture in terms of the CO2 that can be cost effectively captured or avoided. And if you think about the challenges associated with economic projects to capture and sequester CO2, really important variables in that would be the concentration of the CO2. The more dilute the CO2 stream, the more expensive the capturing step. And so you need greater incentives to catch more -- to capture more diluted streams, and so the IRA allows you more to economically pursue more diluted stream, so that opens up the opportunity space there.

關於 IRA 所做的事情，我只想說，它實質上打開了二氧化碳的光圈，可以有效地捕獲或避免二氧化碳。如果您考慮與捕獲和封存二氧化碳的經濟項目相關的挑戰，其中真正重要的變量將是二氧化碳的濃度。二氧化碳流越稀釋，捕獲步驟就越昂貴。所以你需要更大的激勵措施來捕捉更多——捕捉更多稀釋的流，因此 IRA 允許你更多地經濟地追求更稀釋的流，從而打開那裡的機會空間。

Another really important variable is the distance to sequestration. And the transportation cost of moving CO2 to that. And so the further away you are from those, the sources are from the storage sites, the higher the cost. And again, the IRA helps with that space. And then obviously, there's some incentives for hydrogen and additional incentives for direct air capture.

另一個非常重要的變量是隔離的距離。以及將二氧化碳轉移到那裡的運輸成本。因此，您離這些越遠，來源來自存儲站點，成本就越高。再一次，愛爾蘭共和軍幫助了這個空間。然後很明顯，有一些對氫氣的激勵措施和對直接空氣捕獲的額外激勵措施。

So I think directionally, those things are going to help. But I would also say that to achieve the ultimate objective in driving emissions down to net zero, you're going to need to capture a lot of diluted streams and the cost will be a lot higher. And so we're going to have to find additional incentives for that, whether it be through market forces and markets developing for CO2 or additional policy.

所以我認為有方向性，這些事情會有所幫助。但我還要說，要實現將排放量降至淨零的最終目標，您將需要捕獲大量稀釋的流，並且成本會高得多。因此，我們將不得不為此尋找額外的激勵措施，無論是通過市場力量和為二氧化碳開發的市場還是額外的政策。

With respect to what else has to happen, obviously, we're at the very early stages of this project where we've got the economic incentives laid out. We have a path forward but there's a lot to be done. We've got to get permits for storing the CO2. We've got some extensions to put on the pipeline. So there's other regulatory permitting steps that we have to take and the government -- we're working with the government to make sure that we can do that effectively so that we can expedite the project to get it online and start reducing those emissions. It's the equivalent of taking 700,000 cars off the road. So it's a fairly significant project in and of itself.

至於其他必鬚髮生的事情，顯然，我們正處於這個項目的早期階段，我們已經制定了經濟激勵措施。我們有前進的道路，但還有很多工作要做。我們必須獲得儲存二氧化碳的許可。我們有一些擴展要放在管道上。因此，我們必須採取其他監管許可步驟以及政府 - 我們正在與政府合作，以確保我們能夠有效地做到這一點，以便我們可以加快項目上線並開始減少這些排放。這相當於減少 700,000 輛汽車上路。所以這本身就是一個相當重要的項目。

From a return standpoint, what I would say is, and we've talked about this before, we're insisting that the work we do here that we had positioned ourselves competitively versus the rest of industry and the thinking being that whatever incentives required for the marginal player out there to capture and store CO2 or develop biofuels or hydrogen, that we will leverage our advantages to drive a higher return. And to make sure that the projects that we bring into the portfolio are competitive in our portfolio.

從回報的角度來看，我想說的是，我們之前已經討論過這個問題，我們堅持認為，我們在這裡所做的工作使我們與其他行業相比具有競爭力，並且認為任何激勵措施都需要捕獲和儲存二氧化碳或開發生物燃料或氫氣的邊緣參與者，我們將利用我們的優勢來推動更高的回報。並確保我們引入投資組合的項目在我們的投資組合中具有競爭力。

And that's exactly what we're doing and CF Industries is an example of that, an accretive project that's competitive in our portfolio, that makes us money while reducing CO2. And I would say there are more opportunities like that out there. And the thing that Dan is doing in his Low Carbon Solutions business is looking for the opportunities where we can bring something unique to bear and therefore, drive above-industry average returns. And we feel pretty good about the size of that opportunity set.

這正是我們正在做的事情，CF Industries 就是一個例子，這是一個在我們的投資組合中具有競爭力的增值項目，它讓我們在減少二氧化碳排放的同時賺錢。我想說還有更多這樣的機會。 Dan 在他的低碳解決方案業務中所做的事情是尋找機會，讓我們能夠帶來獨特的東西，從而推動高於行業平均水平的回報。我們對這個機會集的規模感到非常滿意。

We'll take our next question from Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

我們將向 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin 提出下一個問題。

My question is about your gas realizations, which are a huge driver on the quarter. Would you characterize those as contractual or more optimization-driven? And then this is an addendum, but I think the seasonality of the gas market has changed a little bit because Europe has very high demand in the summer now because of a storage imperative. And so I wonder if you see that as a structural change to the global gas market and if it means anything for your investment prerogatives on the LNG chain or even in the U.S. within gas because we're going to be exporting a lot. So that's the question.

我的問題是關於你的天然氣實現，這是本季度的一個巨大推動力。您會將這些描述為合同驅動的還是更優化驅動的？然後這是一個附錄，但我認為天然氣市場的季節性已經發生了一些變化，因為歐洲現在夏季的需求非常高，因為存儲勢在必行。因此，我想知道您是否將其視為全球天然氣市場的結構性變化，以及這是否對您在液化天然氣鏈甚至美國天然氣領域的投資特權有任何意義，因為我們將大量出口。這就是問題所在。

Yes, that's fine. I'll jump in, and Darren can add if he has anything. Overall, if you look at our results, we saw strong gas realizations, but we have an overall portfolio that's 60% gas, 40% LNG. The LNG tends to be tied to crude-related prices with a 3- to 6-month lag. So we're seeing the benefit of that lag now kind of coming through our results, and that really came through in the quarter.

是的，沒關係。我會加入，如果達倫有什麼可以補充。總的來說，如果你看看我們的結果，我們看到了強勁的天然氣實現，但我們的整體投資組合是 60% 的天然氣，40% 的液化天然氣。液化天然氣往往與原油相關價格掛鉤，滯後 3 至 6 個月。因此，我們現在通過我們的結果看到了這種滯後的好處，而這在本季度確實得到了體現。

Overall, from a demand perspective, you're obviously seeing a really tight market. We saw in Europe, the building of inventory and how that has driven prices in Europe, building of inventory ahead of the winter. And so structurally, we would say there's going to continue to be a tight market until supply and demand comes into equilibrium, right, in that there's only 2 ways that happen, either more supply or reduced demand and supply, especially supply of LNG does take time to bring online. It isn't something that is just a spigot that can be turned on overnight.

總體而言，從需求的角度來看，您顯然看到了一個非常緊張的市場。我們在歐洲看到了庫存的增加，以及這如何推動歐洲的價格，在冬季來臨之前增加了庫存。因此在結構上，我們會說市場將繼續吃緊，直到供需達到平衡，對，只有兩種方式發生，要么增加供應，要么減少需求和供應，尤其是液化天然氣的供應確實需要是時候上線了。它不僅僅是一個可以在一夜之間打開的龍頭。

The market is obviously responding to that. We obviously have projects that are bringing more LNG online. Darren mentioned Mozambique, the Coral project reaching first gas production. Recently, we've got Golden Pass, which is going to be coming online in 2024. So we have investments that will bring more capacity online, and the industry, obviously, is responding to this, but it is going to take some time. So I'd say as we look at that seasonality, we're always mindful of what's happening in terms of inventories and when inventories are being built or being drawn and what that means in terms of near-term market conditions. And so it's something we always keep an eye on.

市場顯然對此做出了反應。顯然，我們的項目正在使更多的液化天然氣上線。達倫提到了莫桑比克，珊瑚項目達到了第一個天然氣生產。最近，我們有了 Golden Pass，它將於 2024 年上線。所以我們的投資將帶來更多的在線容量，顯然，該行業正在對此做出反應，但這需要一些時間。所以我想說，當我們審視這種季節性時，我們總是注意庫存方面發生的事情，以及何時建立或提取庫存，以及這對近期市場狀況意味著什麼。所以這是我們一直關注的事情。

Yes, I would just add, Sam. So once we get through this period where we're building inventories, we're short in supply and therefore, you've kind of lost some of that seasonality, that once we get to more of a balanced position, which I think is a couple of -- 3 years out, frankly, we'll start to see that seasonality show back up again when we're back in more stable markets.

是的，我想補充一下，Sam。因此，一旦我們度過了建立庫存的這段時期，我們就會出現供應短缺，因此，你已經失去了一些季節性，一旦我們達到更平衡的位置，我認為這是一個坦率地說，三年後，當我們回到更穩定的市場時，我們將開始看到季節性再次出現。

Longer term, our view on gas has always been that's going to play a critical role and world economies for quite some time. And initially, it will go into power generation and back out coal. That's one of the big benefits of gas today. But longer term, as we continue to address emissions and the energy system transitions, gas can be used for ammonia and hydrogen along with carbon capture. And so you can find -- you can move into what I would say, a low emissions -- even lower emissions fuels and address the CO2. And I think gas is going to play an important role in that.

從長遠來看，我們對天然氣的看法一直是天然氣將在相當長的一段時間內發揮關鍵作用和世界經濟。最初，它將進入發電領域並退出煤炭。這是當今天然氣的一大好處。但從長遠來看，隨著我們繼續解決排放和能源系統轉型問題，氣體可用於氨和氫以及碳捕獲。所以你可以找到——你可以進入我所說的低排放——甚至更低排放的燃料並解決二氧化碳問題。我認為天然氣將在其中發揮重要作用。

So I think our view hasn't really changed that there's going to be a fundamental need for gas for quite some time. And we're positioning ourselves to make sure that the portfolio of projects that we developed bring on natural gas on the left-hand side of the cost of supply curve. We're going to continue to be focused on making sure that we're competitive under any scenario, price scenario that we can envision out there. So that's how we're thinking about. That hasn't really changed, frankly.

因此，我認為我們的觀點並沒有真正改變，即在相當長的一段時間內，對天然氣的基本需求將有所改變。我們正在定位自己，以確保我們開發的項目組合在供應成本曲線的左側帶來天然氣。我們將繼續專注於確保我們在任何情況下都具有競爭力，我們可以設想的價格情況。所以我們就是這麼想的。坦率地說，這並沒有真正改變。

We'll take our next question from Jason Gabelman with Cowen.

我們將向 Jason Gabelman 和 Cowen 提出我們的下一個問題。

Maybe just one quick clarification before I ask my question, which is the dividend raise you used to do, I think, with 1Q earnings the past couple of years, you've done with 3Q earnings. So is that a shift of timing or just any comments on that?

在我問我的問題之前，也許只是一個快速的澄清，這是你過去所做的股息提高，我認為，過去幾年的第一季度收益，你已經完成了第三季度的收益。那麼這是時間的轉變還是對此有何評論？

And then my question is just on the Chemicals outlook. As you mentioned, there has been some weakening in the market. Just wondering broadly how you see that market evolving in the next 6 to 12 months, supply -- additional supply coming online, additional demand weakness or will things get tighter?

然後我的問題只是關於化學品前景。正如你所提到的，市場出現了一些疲軟。只是想知道您如何看待未來 6 到 12 個月的市場演變、供應——額外供應上線、額外需求疲軟或情況會變得更加緊張？

Yes, I'll take the quick question on the dividend. We would have raised the dividend at the same time last year. One of the things I would mention is this is the 40th consecutive year where we've had an annual dividend increase. But we don't have a specific timing determined in any given point of the year in terms of when we make this decision. We look at it over time. We're obviously focused on having a competitive, sustainable, growing dividend over time. We know how important it is to shareholders and roughly 40% of our shareholders are consumers, and we know those people are very much focused on the dividend.

是的，我會回答關於股息的快速問題。我們會在去年的同一時間提高股息。我要提到的一件事是，這是我們連續第 40 年增加年度股息。但是，就我們何時做出此決定而言，我們沒有確定在一年中的任何特定時間點確定的具體時間。我們會隨著時間的推移來看待它。我們顯然專注於隨著時間的推移獲得具有競爭力的、可持續的、不斷增長的紅利。我們知道這對股東有多重要，大約 40% 的股東是消費者，我們知道這些人非常關注股息。

Yes. On Chemicals, just as you mentioned, third quarter, we talked about softer demand, really saw that as a consequence of the COVID lockdowns in China. We're very aware of some of the impacts that COVID is continuing to have in China. Now that's going to be a big determinant of what we see happening in margins and kind of supply-demand balance going out in time. It's just how well China recovers from that and how quickly they can move out of these periods of lockdown and get their current economic activity moving back again.

是的。正如您所提到的，在化學品方面，第三季度，我們談到了需求疲軟，這確實是中國 COVID 封鎖的結果。我們非常清楚 COVID 繼續在中國產生的一些影響。現在，這將是我們看到的利潤率和供需平衡及時結束的一個重要決定因素。關鍵在於中國從中恢復得有多好，以及他們能夠多快擺脫這些封鎖期並讓當前的經濟活動再次恢復。

I think as you move outside of China, which is -- obviously, dominates demand out in Asia and move more west into the U.S. and Europe, I think Europe, obviously, with some of the energy challenges that they're facing, are going to have much slower economic activity than would be historical. So I expect to see some demand impacts coming from there.

我認為，隨著您移出中國——顯然，中國主導著亞洲的需求，並更向西移動到美國和歐洲，我認為歐洲顯然面臨著一些能源挑戰，正在走向經濟活動比歷史上要慢得多。因此，我預計會從那裡看到一些需求影響。

And then in the U.S., I would just say it's kind of -- I would just characterize it more as uncertainty. I think some of the softness that we saw in the third quarter was driven by inventory draw for so many of our customers. And we typically see that when there's uncertainty about where future is going, positioning themselves for eventualities and making sure that they are covering themselves for potential downside.

然後在美國，我只想說它有點——我只是把它更多地描述為不確定性。我認為我們在第三季度看到的一些疲軟是由我們許多客戶的庫存消耗推動的。我們通常會看到，當未來的走向存在不確定性時，為可能發生的情況做好準備，並確保他們為潛在的不利因素做好準備。

So I think it's tough to tell. We'll have to see how the fourth quarter plays out. But in the short term, certainly, we see inventories coming down quite a bit. And then longer term, it will be a function of economic activity, obviously.

所以我覺得很難說。我們將不得不看看第四節的表現如何。但在短期內，當然，我們看到庫存下降了很多。從長遠來看，這顯然是經濟活動的一個函數。

And then just one other thing I'd mention, we certainly see some industry supply that's coming on in the fourth quarter, and we commented on that just in terms of our look-forward expectations.

然後我要提到的另一件事是，我們肯定會在第四季度看到一些行業供應，我們只是根據我們的前瞻性預期對此發表評論。

We'll take our next question from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將向RBC Capital Markets 的Biraj Borkhataria 提出下一個問題。

I just wanted to ask about the LNG portfolio again. Could you clarify what proportion of your LNG sales are under long-term contracts and what proportion are sold on a spot basis? The reason I asked is because your assets are performing extremely well in Qatar, Papua New Guinea and Gorgon also. So I just wondered if that has allowed you to sell some incremental spot cargo. So what proportion is under long-term contract?

我只是想再次詢問液化天然氣投資組合。您能否澄清一下您的 LNG 銷售中長期合同的比例以及現貨銷售的比例是多少？我問的原因是因為你們的資產在卡塔爾、巴布亞新幾內亞和戈爾貢的表現也非常好。所以我只是想知道這是否允許你出售一些增量現貨貨物。那麼長約的比例是多少呢？

And if I could sneak a second one in, has there been a change to the 2022 Permian production kind of guidance in terms of growth? It looks slightly light relative to at least what I had in. So I was wondering if anything has changed there.

如果我可以偷偷進入第二個，那麼 2022 二疊紀的生產指導在增長方面是否發生了變化？至少與我所擁有的相比，它看起來略顯輕盈。所以我想知道那裡是否有任何變化。

So the commentary I had made is in our LNG portfolio, about 80% of our volumes would be under long-term contract and we're seeing the benefit of the timing lag because those contracts are typically -- the pricing is tied to crude, but it's lagged kind of 3 to 6 months. So we're seeing that benefit now coming through our realizations.

所以我的評論是在我們的液化天然氣投資組合中，我們大約 80% 的產量將簽訂長期合同，我們看到了時間滯後的好處，因為這些合同通常是——定價與原油掛鉤，但它滯後了 3 到 6 個月。所以我們現在通過我們的認識看到了這種好處。

Yes. I would say on the Permian, one of the challenges there is over the years, what we've been doing is working really hard to make sure we're maximizing the recovery of that resource. And I think we've talked before about some of the technology that we're bringing to bear to make sure that we are doing that in the most cost-advantaged way. Obviously, as we go through that, we're optimizing and adjusting our development plans. That continues to be the case. So I expect this year, we'll probably come in at about 20% up on last year's growth, which was up 25% from the year before. So still very solid growth in the Permian.

是的。我想說的是，在二疊紀，多年來面臨的挑戰之一是，我們一直在努力工作，以確保我們最大限度地回收該資源。而且我認為我們之前已經討論過我們正在採用的一些技術，以確保我們以最具成本優勢的方式做到這一點。顯然，當我們經歷這些時，我們正在優化和調整我們的發展計劃。情況仍然如此。所以我預計今年，我們可能會比去年增長約 20%，比前一年增長 25%。所以二疊紀的增長仍然非常穩健。

And if you look more broadly, we expect basically to meet the objectives that we talked about at the beginning of the year on overall production. If you look at what we had talked about at the beginning of the year for total production this year and where we'll end up, the delta there of about 100,000 barrels a day is really all driven by price entitlements and the fact that we're in much higher price environment.

如果你看的更廣泛，我們預計基本上會達到我們在年初談到的整體生產目標。如果你看看我們在年初談到的今年的總產量以及我們最終會在哪裡，每天大約 100,000 桶的增量實際上都是由價格權利和我們的事實驅動的重新處於更高的價格環境中。

So we feel pretty good about the production growth that we're seeing across the portfolio. We've talked about the record production in the Permian and Guyana is obviously performing very, very well with both of those boats running at above capacity.

因此，我們對我們在整個投資組合中看到的產量增長感到非常滿意。我們已經談到了二疊紀的唱片製作，圭亞那顯然表現得非常非常好，這兩艘船都以高於容量的速度運行。

We'll take our next question from Alastair Syme with Citi.

我們將向花旗的 Alastair Syme 提出我們的下一個問題。

Kathy, can I come back to the -- I think, the very first question on energy products. And if we go back to the 8-K at the close of the quarter, you sort of suggested that industry margins would be a headwind of almost $3 billion. And today, your waterfall suggests that you've only really seen half of that. So I just want to understand, I mean, I don't recall there being ever as big a difference between new industry margins and the indicator margins and your realized margins. So what does it do you think about the portfolio that's allowing you to exceed that at such a degree?

凱西，我可以回到 - 我想，關於能源產品的第一個問題。如果我們在本季度末回到 8-K，你有點暗示行業利潤率將是近 30 億美元的逆風。而今天，你的瀑布表明你只看到了其中的一半。所以我只是想了解，我的意思是，我不記得新行業利潤率與指標利潤率和您的實際利潤率之間存在如此大的差異。那麼你如何看待讓你在這樣的程度上超越它的作品集呢？

Yes. And our impact from, I'd say, straight up refining margins came in kind of right in the middle of the range that we provided for the 8-K. And so beyond that, I mentioned we're seeing a positive beyond refining margins and aromatics margins, overall revenue management. And then end-to-end supply chain optimization and efficiency, which would include trading profit benefits.

是的。我想說的是，我們的直接提煉利潤率的影響正好在我們為 8-K 提供的範圍的中間。因此，除此之外，我提到除了煉油利潤率和芳烴利潤率，整體收入管理之外，我們看到了積極的一面。然後是端到端的供應鏈優化和效率，其中包括貿易利潤收益。

And so I'd say, if you look at quarter-to-quarter, what we've seen in energy products, during the year, there's been a lot of volatility that's been basically tagged to the moving price environment. If you look at that over a longer period of time, say, year-to-date, it looks, I would say, pretty normalized. And then we try to give you information on things that were price timing stuff that occurred in the quarter, but over time, we would expect to be pretty neutral.

所以我想說，如果你看一下季度到季度，我們在能源產品中看到的情況，在這一年中，有很多波動基本上被標記為移動價格環境。如果您在更長的時間段內（例如年初至今）查看它，我會說它看起來非常正常化。然後，我們嘗試向您提供有關本季度發生的價格計時事項的信息，但隨著時間的推移，我們預計會保持中立。

And so I mentioned specifically the program that we have, that we use derivatives to basically ensure ratable pricing of refinery crude run. Over time, we'd expect that to be neutral. You would have seen in the price timing impacts that, that was about a $600 million favorable impact for the quarter.

所以我特別提到了我們擁有的計劃，我們使用衍生品來基本上確保煉油廠原油運行的可評級定價。隨著時間的推移，我們希望這是中性的。您會在價格時機影響中看到，這對本季度產生了約 6 億美元的有利影響。

So I would say what goes on in terms of overall supply chain optimization and how we're trading around our physical footprint, doesn't come through our results ratably every quarter. This quarter, it was obviously a lot stronger. But if you look at it over a long period of time, that benefit that's embedded in the business clearly shows through.

因此，我想說的是，在整體供應鏈優化方面發生了什麼，以及我們如何圍繞我們的實際足跡進行交易，並不是每個季度都可以通過我們的結果來衡量。本季度，它顯然要強得多。但是，如果您從很長一段時間來看，業務中嵌入的這種好處就會清楚地體現出來。

Do you think going forward in the 8-K, you would expect to be closer to that industry margin?

您是否認為在 8-K 中向前發展，您會期望更接近該行業利潤率？

It's really going to depend what the price environment is, what comes out of our trading portfolio in the fourth quarter. Obviously, I'd say, as you also looked at the overall benefits from the business, I'd say the big positive volume factor that we had was something that wouldn't get reflected in our 8-K because we had incredibly high throughput and utilization. So what I try to tell you is if you put the price timing impacts to the side, we would start at about $5 billion in profit in energy products, and then it's going to be about what the -- how the market unfolds in the fourth quarter.

這真的取決於價格環境是什麼，我們第四季度的交易組合會產生什麼。顯然，我會說，當您還查看了業務的整體收益時，我會說我們擁有的巨大的積極體積因素不會反映在我們的 8-K 中，因為我們的吞吐量非常高和利用。所以我想告訴你的是，如果你把價格時間影響放在一邊，我們將從能源產品的利潤開始約為 50 億美元，然後這將是關於 - 市場在第四季度如何展開四分之一。

Yes. I would just add to that the 8-K was really looking at what the market factors are. And then to the extent within the business, we're working hard to improve upon that through the optimization that Kathy mentioned through revenue management across that entire value chain and then trading. And as trading moves and with the accounting rules as that booking happens with time, that comes in less than ratable. We saw that in this margin bucket this quarter. And that will move around as we move forward depending on the price environment that we're in.

是的。我只想補充一點，8-K 確實在關注市場因素。然後在業務範圍內，我們正在努力通過凱西提到的通過整個價值鏈的收入管理和交易進行的優化來改善這一點。隨著交易的發展和會計規則的進行，隨著時間的推移，預訂的發生率越來越低。我們在本季度的保證金桶中看到了這一點。隨著我們前進，這將隨著我們所處的價格環境而改變。

We'll take our next question from John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們將向摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾提出下一個問題。

Most of mine were asked, but if you could just maybe talk about the status of the refinery strikes in France. I know you had a couple of facilities that were impacted there that I believe are ramping back up. Where are we now with those facilities? And when do you expect them back in full? And do you think it actually has a meaningful impact on your 4Q results for Downstream?

我的大多數人都被問到了，但如果你能談談法國煉油廠罷工的狀況。我知道你們那裡有幾個受到影響的設施，我相信這些設施正在恢復。我們現在在哪裡擁有這些設施？你什麼時候期待他們全部回來？您認為這對您的下游第四季度業績真的有有意義的影響嗎？

Yes. The -- so we reached an agreement with the workers some time ago and those refineries are basically going back through the start-up process. When those refineries strike, we've got to bring those units down and free them of hydrocarbon. And so that's a fairly thorough process of cleaning out the hydrocarbon -- clearing the hydrocarbon.

是的。 - 所以我們前段時間與工人達成協議，那些煉油廠基本上正在重新啟動啟動過程。當那些煉油廠罷工時，我們必須讓這些裝置停機並釋放它們的碳氫化合物。所以這是一個相當徹底的清除碳氫化合物的過程——清除碳氫化合物。

So when we go to bring those back up, it's a fairly rigorous process of starting those back up to make sure we do that safely. So it takes some time to ramp things back up again. That's what the organization is working on. I wouldn't expect it to have a meaningful impact. I mean, obviously, in a market that's short, any capacity that comes offline raises the overall prices within the industry. And so I think net-net, that will probably -- there's some mitigation there with respect to our other refineries that are up and running. So I don't think we'll see that in the results, frankly.

因此，當我們恢復這些備份時，啟動這些備份是一個相當嚴格的過程，以確保我們安全地執行此操作。因此，需要一些時間才能再次恢復。這就是該組織正在做的事情。我不認為它會產生有意義的影響。我的意思是，顯然，在一個短缺的市場中，任何下線的產能都會提高行業內的整體價格。因此，我認為 net-net 可能會 - 相對於我們其他已啟動並運行的煉油廠而言，存在一些緩解措施。所以坦率地說，我認為我們不會在結果中看到這一點。

We'll take our next question from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Ryan Todd 和 Piper Sandler。

Maybe if I could follow up on the Permian and your activity levels there. The expectations for U.S. supply growth in 2023, I would say, have probably been falling a little bit across the board, at least partially because of constraints across service providers. As you look towards your 2023 program, how much do you anticipate stepping up activity levels in the Permian to achieve that program? And if the market supports it, is there appetite or interest or even ability on your part to accelerate further? So how much activity increase is based into the program? And how tight do you see the market there in terms of your ability to kind of move around that?

也許如果我能跟進二疊紀和你那裡的活動水平。我想說的是，對 2023 年美國供應增長的預期可能已經全面下降，至少部分是由於服務提供商的限制。當您展望您的 2023 年計劃時，您預計二疊紀的活動水平會提高多少以實現該計劃？如果市場支持它，您是否有進一步加速的胃口或興趣甚至能力？那麼有多少活動增加是基於該計劃的呢？就你在這種情況下移動的能力而言，你認為那裡的市場有多緊張？

Yes, sure. Well, I think the point you make are good ones. The market is tight. And I think generally, the industry -- there's not a lot of capacity as you look across the different steps required to bring on additional production. So I think that is tight. That will, obviously, with time loosen up a little bit. But I think, generally speaking, for the industry, it's constrained. Obviously, every company will have different degrees of freedom in that space. We have some degrees of freedom there, but I would just say we're staying very firmly grounded in our philosophy of making sure that the investments that we make generate high returns at low prices.

是的，當然。嗯，我認為你提出的觀點是好的。市場吃緊。而且我認為，總體而言，整個行業-當您查看增加生產所需的不同步驟時，產能並不多。所以我認為這很緊。顯然，隨著時間的推移，這會有所放鬆。但我認為，一般來說，對於這個行業來說，它是受到限制的。顯然，每家公司在該領域都有不同程度的自由度。我們在那裡有一定程度的自由，但我只想說，我們的理念非常堅定，即確保我們所做的投資以低價產生高回報。

And so the capital discipline -- my definition of capital discipline is making sure that you spend money that's advantaged and has -- generates good returns even in the down cycle. We're going to stay grounded in that. And so anything that we do on the margin has to, first and foremost, meet that criteria, that it's robust to a wide range of price environments, and that we'd be happy irrespective of what prices we're seeing out the window.

因此，資本紀律——我對資本紀律的定義是確保你花有優勢的錢——即使在下行週期中也能產生良好的回報。我們將堅持這一點。因此，我們在邊際上所做的任何事情都必須首先滿足該標準，它對廣泛的價格環境具有穩健性，並且無論我們在窗外看到什麼價格，我們都會感到高興。

We've got capacity to do that, frankly, and some space. So we will, on the margin, spend money to -- where we can see an opportunity to bring that on. But I wouldn't say -- if you look at kind of the range of CapEx that we've provided over the years, we gave ourselves that range, obviously, anticipated movement not only within the year, but across from 1 year to the next. And so we feel pretty good that -- in terms of the ranges that we've provided, our plans going forward are still very consistent with those ranges. And Kathy will spend more time talking about that in December when she takes you through the plan that we will get endorsed with the Board next month.

坦率地說，我們有能力做到這一點，而且還有一些空間。因此，我們將在邊際上花錢——我們可以看到實現這一目標的機會。但我不會說——如果你看看我們多年來提供的資本支出範圍，我們給自己提供了這個範圍，顯然，不僅在一年內，而且從一年到下一個。所以我們感覺很好——就我們提供的範圍而言，我們未來的計劃仍然與這些範圍非常一致。 Kathy 將在 12 月花更多時間討論這個問題，屆時她將帶您了解我們將在下個月獲得董事會批准的計劃。

We'll take our next question from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們將向豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng 提出下一個問題。

Just curious that I don't actually record in the product, Exxon talked about trading is a major contributor to the result. Historically, I think the U.S. companies, such as you and [Chevron] tends to take a more conservative approach and trading compared to your European customers. So just curious, are we seeing the company having a somewhat change in the trading strategy going forward? Or that this is just a unique circumstance and that when we're talking about trading, what kind of trading are we referring to that is making a big contribution this quarter?

只是好奇我實際上並沒有在產品中記錄，埃克森談到交易是結果的主要貢獻者。從歷史上看，我認為與您的歐洲客戶相比，您和 [雪佛龍] 等美國公司傾向於採取更保守的方法和交易方式。所以只是好奇，我們是否看到公司在未來的交易策略上有一些變化？或者這只是一個獨特的情況，當我們談論交易時，我們指的是哪種交易在本季度做出了巨大貢獻？

Yes. Paul, I'll touch on that, and if Kathy's got anything to add, I'll let her jump in on the back. But what I would say is, and I think we talked about this some years ago that we were -- when we moved to the value chain constructs, when we combined our fuels marketing organization with our refining organization and start looking at optimizing value all along the value chain, the trading organization became a much more relevant channel with respect to optimization.

是的。保羅，我會談到這一點，如果凱西有什麼要補充的，我會讓她插在後面。但我想說的是，我想我們幾年前就談到過這個問題——當我們轉向價值鏈結構時，當我們將燃料營銷組織與煉油組織結合起來並開始考慮優化價值時在價值鏈中，貿易組織在優化方面成為一個更相關的渠道。

And so at that time, so back in 2018, we made the decision to invest more in trading and to change the approach there to optimize, to act as an optimization tool along all of our assets. And you may recall, we talked about asset-backed trading. And that continues to be an important part of the Product Solutions business, and more specifically, the Downstream element of the business as well as our Upstream crude. And so that organization has grown with time and continues to perform that optimization function.

所以在那個時候，所以早在 2018 年，我們決定在交易上進行更多投資，並改變那裡的優化方法，作為我們所有資產的優化工具。您可能還記得，我們談到了資產支持交易。這仍然是產品解決方案業務的重要組成部分，更具體地說，是業務的下游要素以及我們的上游原油。因此，該組織隨著時間的推移而發展壯大，並繼續執行優化功能。

I think what you're seeing this quarter, in particular, is the point that Kathy made, which is with the way you account for trading, that can be kind of noisy quarter-on-quarter. And that if you look longer term, you can see the value kind of embedded within the businesses. And it is, I would say, very embedded within those businesses. So we don't break it out just because it is an asset-backed trading strategy. And therefore, the value derived through that, obviously, is through trading, but obviously, also through running all our refineries reliably, having the product and having the assets to support the arbitrages and the trade activities that under -- that create that value.

我認為你在本季度看到的尤其是凱西提出的觀點，即你對交易的會計處理方式，這可能是一種嘈雜的季度環比。而且，如果您從長遠來看，您可以看到嵌入在業務中的價值類型。我想說，它非常嵌入這些業務中。因此，我們不會僅僅因為它是一種資產支持的交易策略就將其分解。因此，由此產生的價值顯然是通過交易，但顯然，也通過可靠地運行我們所有的煉油廠，擁有產品和資產來支持套利和創造價值的貿易活動。

This quarter we saw with the way that the prices moved, a bigger chunk of it booked in the quarter. But I would just say, as you look at that over time, it is a meaningful contributor to the value equation in our Downstream value chain.

本季度我們看到了價格變動的方式，其中很大一部分是在本季度預訂的。但我只想說，隨著時間的推移，它是我們下游價值鏈中價值方程式的重要貢獻者。

Yes. And then the only thing I would add to that is we are trying to also tell you that there's some impacts that over time, we expect to be neutral. So the fact that we use derivatives to ensure ratable pricing of our refinery crude runs sometimes that's going to give us a positive in a quarter. Sometimes that's going to give us a negative in the quarter. Over time, it should be neutral.

是的。然後我要補充的唯一一件事是，我們還試圖告訴你，隨著時間的推移，會有一些影響，我們希望保持中立。因此，我們使用衍生品來確保煉油廠原油的可評價定價這一事實有時會給我們帶來一個季度的積極影響。有時這會給我們在本季度帶來負面影響。隨著時間的推移，它應該是中性的。

That's why we've tried to break that out with the price timing.

這就是為什麼我們試圖通過價格時機來打破這一點。

That's great. And Kathy, just curious that the trading also contributed to the strong natural gas price utilization that you record? Or that had nothing to do with that?

那太棒了。凱西，只是好奇交易也促成了您記錄的強勁的天然氣價格利用率嗎？還是與此無關？

We also have trading that we would be doing within our Upstream business. And so you can see that, some of those impacts reported in our results, but that, we have spot, I would say, exposure, and we do trade around that as well, very embedded in the business. It's not really as big a factor as what we would have seen, obviously, in energy products.

我們也有我們將在上游業務中進行的交易。所以你可以看到，我們的結果中報告了其中一些影響，但是，我們有現貨，我想說，曝光，我們也圍繞它進行交易，非常嵌入業務。顯然，這並不像我們在能源產品中看到的那麼大。

We'll take our next question from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

我們將向 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann 提出下一個問題。

My quick question is just on costs. Specifically, could you all speak to your thoughts for 2023 on OFS inflation and other rising costs particularly in your 2 highest return areas, the Permian and Guyana?

我的快速問題只是關於成本。具體來說，您能否談談您對 2023 年 OFS 通貨膨脹和其他成本上升的看法，特別是在您的 2 個最高回報地區，二疊紀和圭亞那？

Yes. I'll touch on that, Neal. I mean, obviously, we're subject to the same broad market forces that everyone is seeing out there and so inflationary pressures across a number of our sectors and activities. I think a couple of things. One is, as you will recall, as we went through the pandemic in the downturn, we were very -- took a very concerted effort to work with our contracting partners and the recognition that we would be back, that we would longer term, be running rigs and putting pipe in the ground. And so tried to enter into contracts that reflected that longer term objective, and that has helped manage some of the inflationary impacts and that we kind of set some contracts back in the downturn with a commitment to continue to spend money going forward.

是的。我會談到這一點，尼爾。我的意思是，顯然，我們受到每個人都看到的同樣廣泛的市場力量的影響，因此我們的許多部門和活動都面臨著通脹壓力。我認為有幾件事。一個是，你會記得，當我們在經濟低迷時期經歷大流行時，我們非常 - 非常一致地努力與我們的簽約夥伴合作，並認識到我們會回來，我們會長期，運行鑽機並將管道放入地下。因此，我們試圖簽訂反映長期目標的合同，這有助於管理一些通脹影響，我們在經濟低迷時期設定了一些合同，並承諾在未來繼續花錢。

And so that's been an offset. And then, of course, the organization, with all the changes that we've been making. Remember, we took our Upstream organization from 7 plus businesses down to 1 and organized very, very differently. We've centralized a lot of the functions, really trying to harness our scale and leverage the purchasing power that we have and then cut our costs out. So all those efforts to become more efficient and more effective in the marketplace and reduce costs are having a significant impact.

所以這是一個抵消。然後，當然還有組織，以及我們一直在做的所有改變。請記住，我們將上游組織從 7 個以上的企業減少到 1 個，並且組織方式非常非常不同。我們已經集中了很多功能，真正試圖利用我們的規模並利用我們擁有的購買力，然後削減我們的成本。因此，所有這些旨在提高市場效率和效率並降低成本的努力正在產生重大影響。

We mentioned in the earnings release that to date, we have $6.4 billion of structural savings versus 2019 and we're well on our way to meeting the objective we set by end 2023 of $9 billion in structural savings. So that's helping to offset some of those inflationary pressures. And then on top of that, with the centralized organizations and more effectively leveraging the scale, we're getting what I would call -- what we term as kind of short-term efficiencies, purchasing power, however you want to think about that, that we don't put in the structural bucket, but actually helps us to offset costs.

我們在財報中提到，迄今為止，與 2019 年相比，我們有 64 億美元的結構性儲蓄，我們正在朝著實現到 2023 年底設定的 90 億美元結構性儲蓄的目標邁進。因此，這有助於抵消部分通脹壓力。最重要的是，隨著集中式組織和更有效地利用規模，我們得到了我所說的——我們稱之為短期效率、購買力，無論你想怎麼想，我們不放在結構性桶中，但實際上可以幫助我們抵消成本。

And so we've challenged ourselves to deliver on our expense budget for the year and to offset inflation. The organization is doing a pretty good job at that. I think we'll be within rounding with respect to that. And then next year, the organization is very focused on using the opportunities that have been created through the restructuring of our business to offset those inflationary pressures. And we're going to stretch ourselves to see how much of that we can do.

因此，我們挑戰了自己，以實現我們的年度開支預算並抵消通貨膨脹。該組織在這方面做得很好。我認為我們會在這方面四捨五入。然後明年，該組織將非常專注於利用通過業務重組創造的機會來抵消這些通脹壓力。我們將竭盡全力，看看我們能做多少。

Katie, we have time for one more question.

凱蒂，我們有時間再問一個問題。

We'll take our last question from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們將回答 Roger Read 和 Wells Fargo 的最後一個問題。

Yes. Maybe just to follow up on the capacity question that was asked earlier, but rather than just focus on services capacity in a particular region or something like that, Darren, I was curious, if you look at tightness, be it LNG, refining, et cetera, what do you think it takes? Or do you believe that the capacity exists for the world to move forward and do what it needs to do over the next, say, 2 to 3 years to add capacity? Or do you see it as a situation where there probably is a no other option but to curtail demand for some period of time? It's kind of a macro question, but you brought it up in the intro, and it's kind of picking at me here as to what's the way out of this maze.

是的。也許只是為了跟進之前提出的產能問題，而不是僅僅關注特定地區的服務能力或類似的東西，達倫，我很好奇，如果你看一下緊張，無論是液化天然氣、煉油等等等，你認為這需要什麼？或者您是否相信世界有能力繼續前進並在接下來的 2 到 3 年內完成它需要做的事情來增加能力？或者您是否認為這是一種可能除了在一段時間內減少需求之外別無選擇的情況？這是一個宏觀問題，但你在介紹中提出了這個問題，這裡有點挑剔我走出這個迷宮的出路。

Yes. Thanks, Roger. I think the industry has been historically pretty good at flexing on capacity to meet the demand. And so I'm optimistic that with time, the market -- and we've proven this, I think, over the years, that the markets will come back into balance, but it is a function of time.

是的。謝謝，羅傑。我認為該行業在歷史上一直很擅長利用產能來滿足需求。所以我很樂觀，隨著時間的推移，市場——我認為，多年來，我們已經證明了這一點，市場將恢復平衡，但這是時間的函數。

I think in the short term, everyone will squeeze what they can. Certainly, you've seen us pushing as hard as we can to make sure that we're running reliably, and we're getting product to the marketplace to meet that need in the market. I know everyone else is trying to do the same. So I think that piece of it is sweating all the existing assets as hard as you can. It's going to help in the short term, but longer -- but more structurally, it's just a function of getting these projects developed and on track.

我認為在短期內，每個人都會盡可能地擠壓。當然，您已經看到我們竭盡全力確保我們運行可靠，並且我們正在將產品推向市場以滿足市場的需求。我知道其他人都在嘗試做同樣的事情。所以我認為這部分正在盡你所能地消耗所有現有資產。這將在短期內有所幫助，但時間更長——但在結構上，它只是讓這些項目發展並走上正軌的一個功能。

I mean fortunately for us, we've had a very healthy pipeline of projects that have been in work. And so it's not -- we're not out trying to find something to work on. We're basically focused on delivering the pipeline that we've got. And we're bringing on -- as we talked about, we brought in Coral floating LNG out of Mozambique this quarter. That's additional capacity. We're progressing investments in Papua New Guinea. We've got Golden Pass here in the U.S., that's progressing very large LNG export terminal that should come online in 2024. That's going to probably increase the exports out of the Gulf Coast by 20%. So I think the capacity is there. It's just a function of the time it takes to build these very significant projects.

我的意思是對我們來說幸運的是，我們有一個非常健康的項目管道，這些項目一直在進行中。所以它不是——我們不是想找到一些可以做的事情。我們基本上專注於交付我們擁有的管道。我們正在引進——正如我們所說，本季度我們從莫桑比克引進了珊瑚浮式液化天然氣。那是額外的容量。我們正在巴布亞新幾內亞進行投資。我們在美國有 Golden Pass，它正在建設非常大的液化天然氣出口終端，預計將於 2024 年上線。這可能會使墨西哥灣沿岸的出口增加 20%。所以我認為能力是存在的。這只是構建這些非常重要的項目所需時間的函數。

And I would also tell you that if you look at on the crude side of the equation, we're making very good progress with the next poke into Guyana. We continue to believe we're going to bring that in a little bit early and we're progressing the ones after that. So I think the capacity is there. It's -- the challenge is executing efficiently so that you're getting -- you're spending your capital efficiently and then doing it in a way that brings it on an expedited fashion, which is what we're focused on doing.

而且我還要告訴你，如果你從等式的粗略方面來看，我們在下一次進入圭亞那方面取得了很好的進展。我們仍然相信我們會早一點實現這一點，之後我們會繼續推進。所以我認為能力是存在的。這是 - 挑戰是有效地執行，以便你得到 - 你正在有效地花費你的資金，然後以一種快速的方式來做這件事，這就是我們專注於做的事情。

And then just the one thing I'd add is on the demand side, I think all companies that can are looking to conserve, especially LNG, so that it can be there for other use. So across our footprint in Europe, we've already kind of switched over 65% of our use of LNG to other fuel sources so that it can be there for other use. And I expect that other industry players are doing the same.

然後我要補充的一件事是在需求方面，我認為所有可以尋求節約的公司，尤其是液化天然氣，以便它可以用於其他用途。因此，在我們在歐洲的足跡中，我們已經將 65% 的液化天然氣使用量轉換為其他燃料來源，以便將其用於其他用途。我希望其他行業參與者也會這樣做。

Thanks, Roger. Thanks, everybody, for your questions today. We will post the transcript of the Q&A session on our investor website early next week. Have a nice weekend, everyone, and let me turn it back to Katie to conclude our call. Katie?

謝謝，羅傑。謝謝大家，今天的問題。我們將在下周初在我們的投資者網站上發布問答環節的記錄。祝大家週末愉快，讓我回到凱蒂結束我們的通話。凱蒂？

Thank you. That concludes today's call. We thank everyone again for their participation.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們再次感謝大家的參與。