埃克森美孚 (XOM) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to this ExxonMobil Corporation Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加埃克森美孚公司 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。

And at this time, I would like to turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations and Secretary, Mr. Stephen Littleton. Please go ahead, sir.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁兼秘書斯蒂芬利特爾頓先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. We appreciate your participation and continued interest in ExxonMobil. I am Stephen Littleton, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kathy Mikells, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。歡迎來到我們的第四季度財報電話會議。感謝您的參與和對埃克森美孚的持續關注。我是投資者關係副總裁斯蒂芬·利特爾頓。今天加入我的還有董事長兼首席執行官達倫·伍茲（Darren Woods）；以及我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Kathy Mikells。

The full set of presentation slides and prepared remarks are made available on the Investor Relations section of our website earlier this morning, along with our press release.

今天早上早些時候，我們網站的投資者關係部分提供了全套演示幻燈片和準備好的評論，以及我們的新聞稿。

During our call this morning, Darren will provide a few additional opening comments and reference a select number of slides from that presentation, leaving more time for your questions. We expect to conclude the call at 9:30 a.m. Central Time.

在我們今天早上的電話會議中，達倫將提供一些額外的開場評論，並參考該演示文稿中的一些幻燈片，為您的問題留出更多時間。我們預計在中部時間上午 9:30 結束通話。

I would also like to draw your attention to the cautionary statement on Slide 2 and through the supplemental information at the end of the presentation slides on the website. I'll now turn the call over to Darren.

我還想通過網站上演示幻燈片末尾的補充信息提請您注意幻燈片 2 上的警告聲明。我現在把電話轉給達倫。

Thanks, Stephen. It's a pleasure to share our 2021 results with you today, which demonstrates the significant progress we've made to advance our strategy and position the company to sustainably grow shareholder value. Our effective pandemic response, focused investments during a down cycle and structural cost savings positioned us to realize the full benefit of the market recovery last year. We delivered strong financial and operating performance, significantly increased earnings and cash flow to fund our advantaged investments, reduced debt to pre-pandemic levels and continued our long history of sharing our success with shareholders.

謝謝，斯蒂芬。很高興今天與您分享我們 2021 年的業績，這表明我們在推進戰略和定位公司以可持續增長股東價值方面取得了重大進展。我們有效的大流行應對措施、在下行週期中的重點投資和結構性成本節約使我們能夠充分利用去年市場復甦的好處。我們實現了強勁的財務和運營業績，顯著增加了收益和現金流來為我們的優勢投資提供資金，將債務減少到大流行前的水平，並延續了我們與股東分享成功的悠久歷史。

Today, we'll outline some of our progress towards reaching our strategic goals to lead in earnings and cash flow growth, drive to a net-zero future, build successful lower emissions businesses and maintain optionality in our portfolio to match the pace of the energy transition. Let me touch on a couple of key points.

今天，我們將概述我們在實現戰略目標方面取得的一些進展，以引領收益和現金流增長，推動實現淨零未來，建立成功的低排放業務，並在我們的投資組合中保持選擇性以匹配能源的步伐過渡。讓我談談幾個關鍵點。

First, we're working to fully leverage our competitive advantages, including our scale to drive step changes in cost and efficiency. We're also actively managing our strong portfolio and continue our keen focus on operating performance and disciplined capital and operating spend.

首先，我們正在努力充分利用我們的競爭優勢，包括我們的規模來推動成本和效率的階梯式變化。我們還積極管理我們強大的投資組合，並繼續專注於運營績效以及嚴格的資本和運營支出。

We're also accelerating our work to reduce emissions and drive innovations focused on the hard-to-decarbonize sectors, such as heavy industry and commercial transportation. An important part of this activity is our ambition to achieve net-zero emissions from our operations by 2050. Also important is the good progress we've made building our Low Carbon Solutions business, which is rapidly expanding, utilizing existing policy. As you're all aware, we're also pursuing very large-scale opportunities that will give us first-mover advantage as we advocate for the new policy necessary to support these step-out projects. Our results demonstrate the benefits of the actions we've taken. We're continuing to manage and evolve the company to further strengthen our competitive advantages, growing value through the transition, regardless of its pace.

我們還在加快減少排放的工作，並推動專注於重工業和商業運輸等難以脫碳的行業的創新。這項活動的一個重要部分是我們的雄心壯志，即到 2050 年我們的運營實現淨零排放。同樣重要的是，我們利用現有政策在建立低碳解決方案業務方面取得了良好進展，該業務正在迅速擴大。正如你們都知道的那樣，我們也在尋求非常大規模的機會，這將給我們帶來先發優勢，因為我們提倡支持這些跨步項目所必需的新政策。我們的結果證明了我們採取的行動的好處。我們將繼續管理和發展公司，以進一步加強我們的競爭優勢，通過轉型增加價值，無論其步伐如何。

Turning now to some perspectives in 2021. As I said, we've made tremendous progress advancing our strategy over the past year. We remain focused on safety and reliability, delivering a second consecutive year of outstanding performance.

現在談談 2021 年的一些觀點。正如我所說，在過去一年中，我們在推進戰略方面取得了巨大進展。我們仍然專注於安全性和可靠性，連續第二年表現出色。

In emission reductions, we expect to meet our 2025 reduction plans 4 years early. That led us to set even more aggressive plans for 2030. The experience we gained developing reduction road maps for our assets gives us confidence for what we can ultimately achieve. This helped form the basis of our recently announced ambition to achieve net-zero emissions in our operations by 2050.

在減排方面，我們預計提前 4 年實現 2025 年減排計劃。這促使我們為 2030 年制定了更加積極的計劃。我們為資產製定減排路線圖所獲得的經驗使我們對最終能夠實現的目標充滿信心。這有助於形成我們最近宣布的目標，即到 2050 年在我們的運營中實現淨零排放。

Of course, a big part of our work in this area involved our Low Carbon Solutions business. As I mentioned, this new business has made exceptional progress building a large inventory of new business opportunities with a focus on carbon capture, hydrogen and biofuels. Importantly, we're also addressing emissions by providing high-performance products to deliver solutions to help our customers reduce their emissions. Demand for these products was very strong in 2021, enabling 7% growth in our performance product volumes. This helps drive record annual earnings in our Chemical business.

當然，我們在這一領域的很大一部分工作涉及我們的低碳解決方案業務。正如我所提到的，這項新業務在建立大量新業務機會方面取得了非凡的進展，重點是碳捕獲、氫和生物燃料。重要的是，我們還通過提供高性能產品來解決排放問題，以提供解決方案來幫助我們的客戶減少排放。 2021 年對這些產品的需求非常強勁，使我們的高性能產品數量增長了 7%。這有助於推動我們的化工業務創紀錄的年收益。

Strengthening our portfolio across all of our businesses continues to be a key part of our strategic focus to increase shareholder returns. To that end, we have more exploration success in Guyana with 6 discoveries in 2021 and 2 additional discoveries already this year. This has expanded the estimated recoverable resources on the Stabroek block to more than 10 billion oil-equivalent barrels, and we're on schedule to start production this quarter at least at Phase 2.

加強我們所有業務的投資組合仍然是我們提高股東回報的戰略重點的關鍵部分。為此，我們在圭亞那取得了更多的勘探成功，2021 年有 6 個發現，今年已經有 2 個發現。這已將 Stabroek 區塊的估計可採資源量擴大到超過 100 億桶石油當量，我們正按計劃至少在第二階段在本季度開始生產。

In the Permian, we continue to drive improvements in drilling and completions, increasing average production by nearly 100,000 oil equivalents per day to approximately 460,000.

在二疊紀，我們繼續推動鑽井和完井的改進，將平均產量提高近 100,000 油當量/日，達到約 460,000 油當量。

We started up the Corpus Christi chemical facility under budget and ahead of schedule. And we've continued to monetize noncore assets, generating more than $3 billion of cash proceeds from divestment during the year.

我們在預算內提前啟動了科珀斯克里斯蒂化學工廠。我們繼續將非核心資產貨幣化，年內從撤資中產生了超過 30 億美元的現金收益。

Our actions are yielding strong results, and as I said, positioned us to benefit from demand recovery. We grew earnings to $23 billion and drove nearly $2 billion of structural efficiencies in 2021 on top of the $3 billion the year before. This puts us in a good position to significantly exceed our goal of $6 billion of structural cost savings per year by 2023 relative to 2019. We maintained our disciplined approach to investments, focused on competitively advantaged, low cost of supply opportunities and on growing our portfolio of high-value products. CapEx was $16.6 billion for the year, which was near the low end of our guidance.

我們的行動正在產生強勁的成果，正如我所說，使我們能夠從需求復蘇中受益。在前一年的 30 億美元基礎上，我們在 2021 年將收入增長至 230 億美元，並推動了近 20 億美元的結構效率。這使我們處於有利位置，到 2023 年相對於 2019 年每年節省 60 億美元的結構性成本目標。我們保持嚴謹的投資方式，專注於具有競爭優勢的低成本供應機會，並致力於擴大我們的投資組合的高價值產品。當年資本支出為 166 億美元，接近我們預期的低端。

As a result of our cost reductions, improved efficiency and capital discipline, we've lowered our Brent breakeven price to $41 per barrel. We're continuing to drive that down even more, expecting to average $35 a barrel between now and 2027. Cash flow from operating activities increased to $48 billion, the highest since 2012. We use the available cash to restore our balance sheet, essentially paying back what we borrowed in 2020, reducing our debt-to-capital ratio to about 21%. As a result of our restored financial strength, we increased the annual dividend for the 39th consecutive year and announced a $10 billion share repurchase program that started last month. Overall, a strong list of accomplishments.

由於我們降低成本、提高效率和資本紀律，我們已將布倫特原油盈虧平衡價格降至每桶 41 美元。我們將繼續進一步降低這一水平，預計從現在到 2027 年平均每桶 35 美元。經營活動產生的現金流增加到 480 億美元，是 2012 年以來的最高水平。我們使用可用現金來恢復我們的資產負債表，基本上是支付償還我們在 2020 年借入的資金，將我們的債務與資本比率降至 21% 左右。由於我們恢復了財務實力，我們連續第 39 年增加了年度股息，並宣布了從上個月開始的 100 億美元的股票回購計劃。總體而言，這是一份強有力的成就清單。

Now looking ahead to this year. Our plan is robust and progresses our strategic objectives. I'll highlight a few key items on this page. First, we will increase our competitively advantaged low cost-of-supply production with the start-up of Liza Phase 2 in Guyana and the Coral LNG development in Mozambique. The same is true for the Permian, where our focus remains on driving further capital efficiency and high-value growth. We're already ramping up manufacturing at Corpus Christi and expecting to start up our Baton Rouge polypropylene expansion later this year. These projects will continue to grow production of our high-value chemical performance products.

現在展望今年。我們的計劃是穩健的，並推進了我們的戰略目標。我將在此頁面上突出顯示一些關鍵項目。首先，隨著圭亞那 Liza 二期項目的啟動和莫桑比克的 Coral LNG 開發項目的啟動，我們將增加具有競爭優勢的低成本供應生產。二疊紀也是如此，我們的重點仍然是推動進一步的資本效率和高價值增長。我們已經在科珀斯克里斯蒂（Corpus Christi）加大生產力度，並預計在今年晚些時候啟動我們的巴吞魯日聚丙烯擴建項目。這些項目將繼續增加我們高價值化學性能產品的產量。

We're applying the same capabilities and expertise developed over decades to progress our net-zero ambitions and grow our Low Carbon Solutions business. In that business, we expect to reach final investment decisions on large-scale carbon capture and storage projects at LaBarge, Wyoming, and Rotterdam in the Netherlands. We're continuing to advance the flagship carbon capture opportunity in Houston. It now has 14 participating companies and has the potential to capture up to 100 million metric tons of CO2 per year by 2040. We also anticipate beginning to lift renewable diesel from our agreement with Global Clean Energy's biorefinery in California later this year, as well as making a final investment decision on our renewable diesel project at our Strathcona refinery in Canada, expanding our lower-emissions fuels offering. And finally, we expect to further strengthen our balance sheet and progress our share repurchase program while continuing to retain capital flexibility and optionality to adapt to market conditions and opportunities.

我們正在應用幾十年來開發的相同能力和專業知識來推進我們的淨零目標並發展我們的低碳解決方案業務。在該業務中，我們預計將就荷蘭拉巴格、懷俄明州和鹿特丹的大型碳捕獲和儲存項目做出最終投資決定。我們將繼續推進休斯頓的旗艦碳捕獲機會。它現在有 14 家參與公司，到 2040 年有可能每年捕獲多達 1 億噸二氧化碳。我們還預計今年晚些時候我們與全球清潔能源在加利福尼亞的生物精煉廠的協議中將開始取消可再生柴油，以及對我們在加拿大 Strathcona 煉油廠的可再生柴油項目做出最終投資決定，擴大我們的低排放燃料供應。最後，我們希望進一步加強我們的資產負債表並推進我們的股票回購計劃，同時繼續保持資本靈活性和選擇性，以適應市場條件和機會。

Leveraging our core competitive advantages, we're well positioned for future success, irrespective of the path or pace. We have the flexibility to shift resources between our traditional and low-carbon businesses at any rate required. This provides a lot of optionality and positions us to lead industry in the energy transition and in earnings and cash flow growth.

憑藉我們的核心競爭優勢，無論路徑或步伐如何，我們都為未來的成功做好了準備。我們可以根據需要靈活地在傳統業務和低碳業務之間轉移資源。這提供了很多選擇權，並使我們在能源轉型以及收益和現金流增長方面處於領先地位。

We thank you for joining us today and look forward to sharing more with you during our Investor Day on March 2. Unfortunately, because of ongoing COVID considerations, we'll conduct the events virtually again this year. We do look forward to the day when we can get back to hosting you all in person.

我們感謝您今天加入我們，並期待在 3 月 2 日的投資者日期間與您分享更多信息。不幸的是，由於持續的 COVID 考慮，我們將在今年再次以虛擬方式舉辦這些活動。我們確實期待有一天我們可以親自接待你們。

Before we take your questions, I'd like to take a moment to thank Stephen for his leadership and significant contributions as after 30 years of service, he will be retiring at the end of this month. I wish Stephen and his wife, Kim, the very best. You'll be missed. I'd also like to welcome Jennifer Driscoll, who will be joining later this month as our Vice President of Investor Relations.

在我們回答您的問題之前，我想花一點時間感謝斯蒂芬的領導和重大貢獻，因為在服務了 30 年後，他將於本月底退休。我祝愿斯蒂芬和他的妻子金，一切順利。你會被想念的。我還要歡迎 Jennifer Driscoll，她將於本月晚些時候加入我們，擔任我們的投資者關係副總裁。

Thank you, Darren. Operator, please open the phone lines for the first question.

謝謝你，達倫。接線員，請打開第一個問題的電話線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Phil Gresh with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們將首先與摩根大通一起去菲爾格雷什。

Congrats, Stephen, on your retirement.

恭喜斯蒂芬，你退休了。

Thank you, Phil.

謝謝你，菲爾。

First question for Kathy on capital allocation. Great to see the net debt reduction here in the fourth quarter well ahead of our expectations and the start-up of share buybacks in January. As you look at '22, with oil prices where they are, how are you thinking about the pace of the share buybacks and the desire to take leverage below this 20% to 25% target given the pace and progress you made in the fourth quarter?

Kathy 關於資本配置的第一個問題。很高興看到第四季度的淨債務減少遠超我們的預期以及 1 月份股票回購的啟動。當您查看 22 年的油價時，您如何考慮股票回購的步伐以及考慮到您在第四季度取得的步伐和進展，將槓桿率降至 20% 至 25% 目標以下的願望?

Sure. So look, our capital allocation priorities remain the same, right? First, let's make sure we're investing in the high-return assets and products across the business from Guyana to chemical performance products to biofuels; second, really continuing to strengthen the balance sheet. I talked about on the third quarter, and we continue to look out to our term debt maturities with an eye to paying those down in 2022 and continuing to sustain the strong dividend that we have and then, obviously, returning further available cash to shareholders.

當然。所以看，我們的資本配置優先級保持不變，對吧？首先，讓我們確保我們投資於從圭亞那到化學性能產品再到生物燃料的整個企業的高回報資產和產品；第二，真正持續強化資產負債表。我在第三季度談到過，我們繼續關注我們的定期債務到期，著眼於在 2022 年償還債務，並繼續維持我們擁有的強勁股息，然後顯然向股東返還更多可用現金。

We would have started the $10 billion share repurchase program at the beginning of the year, what I would have described as an equal pace against the 24-month longer-term time frame. As we assess both our year-end results where we ended up in terms of net debt, looking at the continued positive market environment, that would cause us to increase the pace of the share repurchase program, and as I stand here today, I'd say increasing the pace with the faster end of that 12- to 24-month pace in mind. We will continue to evaluate the program and the pace throughout the year. It's one thing to sit here today and fit in what are pretty favorable market conditions, but we'll just have to see how the year pans out. But that's how we're thinking about it right now.

我們將在今年年初啟動 100 億美元的股票回購計劃，我將其描述為與 24 個月的長期時間框架相同的速度。當我們評估我們最終以淨債務計算的年終業績時，考慮到持續積極的市場環境，這將導致我們加快股票回購計劃的步伐，今天我站在這裡，我d 說要加快步伐，加快結束 12 到 24 個月的步伐。我們將在全年繼續評估該計劃和進度。今天坐在這裡並適應非常有利的市場條件是一回事，但我們只需要看看這一年會如何發展。但這就是我們現在正在考慮的方式。

Okay. Great. No, that makes a lot of sense. And then my second question, I know you'll give a more detailed update in March at the Analyst Day, but just any thoughts around 2022 production targets, considering the -- some of the recently closed asset sales, just any moving pieces, Permian or otherwise?

好的。偉大的。不，這很有意義。然後我的第二個問題，我知道你會在 3 月份的分析師日提供更詳細的更新，但只是考慮到 - 一些最近關閉的資產銷售，只是任何移動部件，二疊紀，關於 2022 年生產目標的任何想法還是其他？

Yes. I'll take that, Phil. As you know, one of the primary objectives we've had in looking at the portfolio is less about volume and volume targets and more about the quality and profitability of the barrels that we're producing. So we've been aggressively trying to high-grade the portfolio across our businesses, and that's certainly true in the Upstream which led to the discussion we had a couple of years ago with respect to the divestment program, which continues to pay dividends and will continue to progress, and then the growth that we're seeing in Guyana and Permian and Brazil. And so I would expect that volumes are fairly consistent with what we've seen this year, and -- but the mix within that volume profile will continue to improve, and the earnings per barrel will continue to improve, and that's been the focus.

是的。我會接受的，菲爾。如您所知，我們在查看投資組合時的主要目標之一不是關於數量和數量目標，而是更多關於我們生產的桶的質量和盈利能力。因此，我們一直在積極嘗試提升我們業務的投資組合，這在上游肯定是正確的，這導致我們幾年前就撤資計劃進行了討論，該計劃將繼續派發股息並將繼續進步，然後是我們在圭亞那、二疊紀和巴西看到的增長。因此，我預計產量與我們今年看到的情況相當一致，而且——但該產量概況中的組合將繼續改善，每桶收益將繼續改善，這一直是重點。

And as we move forward, we'll continue -- you'll continue to see the -- what I'll say, the quality of the barrels or profitability of the barrels increase. And then with time, as you head out in the later years, you'll see volumes grow with that improved quality mix.

隨著我們向前發展，我們將繼續 - 你將繼續看到 - 我會說，桶的質量或桶的盈利能力增加。然後隨著時間的推移，當你在晚年出發時，你會看到隨著質量組合的改進，銷量會增長。

Next question will come from the line of Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

下一個問題將來自 Biraj Borkhataria 和 RBC。

I wanted to reference the -- some of your comments made on the structural cost reduction. You talked about those benefits continuing into 2023. I was just wondering if you could balance that again, the cost inflation we're seeing across various items: your raw materials, logistics, labor, et cetera. Can you talk about the net impact of those? And I have a follow-on on a different topic.

我想參考您對結構性成本降低的一些評論。您談到這些好處將持續到 2023 年。我只是想知道您是否可以再次平衡這一點，我們在各個項目中看到的成本膨脹：您的原材料、物流、勞動力等。你能談談這些的淨影響嗎？我有一個關於不同主題的後續內容。

Sure. So we talked some time ago about a $6 billion structural reduction through 2023. As we work through 2021, and drove additional improvements within the business, we've extended that restructural cost reduction. We expect, as I said this morning earlier, kind of around $2 billion again in 2022 and another $2 billion in 2023, so more than exceeding the level that we thought about and talked about last year. That, obviously, is the structural side of the equation in terms of reducing cost. The counterweight then is the inflation and ForEx and some of the pressures that we're seeing. In the short term, we were in the down cycle. We recognize that there would be a return, and there would be growth, and that would put pressure on prices. And so we, in anticipation of that, tried to manage many of our contracts and the work that we are doing to maintain a level of cost and to minimize escalation as we headed into 2021 into 2022, and that's paying off. We've managed to mitigate quite a bit of that inflation.

當然。因此，我們前段時間談到了到 2023 年的 60 億美元結構性削減。隨著我們到 2021 年的工作，並推動業務的進一步改進，我們已經擴大了重組成本的削減。正如我今天早上早些時候所說，我們預計 2022 年再次達到 20 億美元左右，2023 年再達到 20 億美元，超過我們去年考慮和談論的水平。顯然，就降低成本而言，這是等式的結構方面。平衡的力量是通貨膨脹和外匯以及我們看到的一些壓力。在短期內，我們處於下行週期。我們認識到會有回報，會有增長，這會給價格帶來壓力。因此，我們預料到這一點，試圖管理我們的許多合同和我們正在做的工作，以保持一定的成本水平，並在我們進入 2021 年到 2022 年時盡量減少升級，這正在取得成效。我們已經設法減輕了相當多的通貨膨脹。

Obviously, as time goes on, we'll start to see more of that. And our expectation is the businesses will work to offset that inflation growth. And longer term, our objective is, as we grow the business with the investments that we're making in chemical facilities and some of the changes that we're making in our Downstream operations and then as we grow some of the Upstream businesses will offset all that increased cost with structural efficiencies, including...

顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們將開始看到更多。我們的預期是企業將努力抵消通脹增長。從長遠來看，我們的目標是，隨著我們通過對化學設施的投資以及我們在下游業務中所做的一些改變來發展業務，然後隨著我們的發展，一些上游業務將抵消所有這些隨著結構效率的增加而增加的成本，包括……

Understood. That's really helpful. The second question is actually asset specific. I've been looking at some of the export data at Papua New Guinea over the last few months, and it looks like that asset is performing extremely well and above nameplate capacity. I was wondering if you could talk about whether there's anything specific you're doing to increase capacity there? And maybe any color on how much of those exports are contracted versus spot would be helpful, too.

明白了。這真的很有幫助。第二個問題實際上是特定於資產的。在過去的幾個月裡，我一直在查看巴布亞新幾內亞的一些出口數據，看起來該資產的表現非常好，超過了銘牌產能。我想知道您是否可以談談您是否正在採取任何具體措施來增加那裡的容量？也許任何關於這些出口中有多少是合同與現貨的顏色都會有所幫助，也是。

Yes, sure. I think, again, what we're seeing in Papua New Guinea, and frankly, it's been replicated in other parts of the company is what we've been talking about, which is leveraging the full capabilities of the organization. One of the changes that we've made over time here is we brought a lot of the optimization skills and techniques that we've historically used in our Downstream businesses, and our refineries where you're eking out pennies on the barrel to be successful. And taking that technology and approach to some of our upstream assets and sharing that technology and working with the upstream teams to improve the productivity of the assets on the ground, that's paying off really all around the world where we're applying that technique. And what you're seeing in Papua New Guinea is that's part of the driver -- what the driver of that increase on top of just hard work by that operating team to maintain reliability and to run that plant to its constraints. And so I think it's the combination of those 2 things.

是的，當然。我再次認為，我們在巴布亞新幾內亞看到的情況，坦率地說，它已在公司的其他部門得到復制，這就是我們一直在談論的，即利用組織的全部能力。隨著時間的推移，我們在這裡所做的改變之一是我們帶來了許多優化技能和技術，這些技巧和技術歷來用於我們的下游業務，以及我們的煉油廠，您可以在桶上勉強獲得成功.將這種技術和方法應用於我們的一些上游資產並共享該技術並與上游團隊合作以提高實地資產的生產力，這在我們應用該技術的世界各地都得到了回報。你在巴布亞新幾內亞看到的是驅動因素的一部分——除了運營團隊努力工作以保持可靠性並在限制條件下運行該工廠之外，這種增長的驅動因素是什麼。所以我認為這是這兩件事的結合。

And our expectation, we've seen that in Chemical as well. As we brought those plants up, we've been able to run above the nameplate capacity, just, again, with the optimization and the hard work of the operating team. So we've kind of have an expectation as we bring new assets on that those operating teams figure out unique ways to get beyond constraints and improve the performance.

我們的期望是，我們在化學中也看到了這一點。當我們把這些工廠建成後，我們已經能夠在銘牌產能之上運行，這又一次得益於運營團隊的優化和辛勤工作。因此，當我們帶來新的資產時，我們有一種期望，即那些運營團隊會找出獨特的方法來超越限制並提高績效。

We'll go to Jason Gabelman with Cowen.

我們將和 Cowen 一起去 Jason Gabelman。

First, I wanted to touch on the CapEx guidance, provided a range of $21 billion to $24 billion, which is appreciated. Can you just discuss how you think about what determines the low end and the high end of that range for next -- for this year? And I have a follow-up.

首先，我想談談資本支出指南，提供了 210 億至 240 億美元的範圍，這是值得讚賞的。你能否談談你如何看待決定下一個範圍的低端和高端的因素——今年？我有一個後續行動。

Sure. So overall, I think as you consider the range that we've given, I'd kind of point to starting the year with an expectation of being more towards the center of the range, and then we'll see, ultimately, how the projects and the big projects proceed is probably the biggest indicator and whether any new projects ultimately come online, which we would always be maintaining some level of flexibility for.

當然。所以總的來說，我認為當你考慮我們給出的範圍時，我會指出今年開始時會更接近範圍的中心，然後我們最終會看到項目和大型項目的進展可能是最大的指標，以及是否有任何新項目最終上線，我們將始終保持一定程度的靈活性。

Unsurprisingly, with the size of our Upstream business relative to Downstream and Chemicals, the biggest increase year-over-year comes from, overall, the Upstream business and further spending in Guyana, further spending in unconventional, especially the Permian, beginning to upweight our spending overall on our own emission reductions. And again, the Permian would be another place that we're particularly focused, restarting paused projects that we had in the Downstream. And then you'll be well aware of the big projects that we have ongoing in Chemicals. So that's really what's driving the difference. And I'd say how we think about landing towards the middle versus a different end within that range but obviously tightening the range relative to the range that we've given over a longer period of time, which is the $20 billion to $25 billion.

不出所料，隨著我們上游業務相對於下游和化學品的規模，同比增幅最大的是，總體而言，上游業務和圭亞那的進一步支出，在非常規，尤其是二疊紀的進一步支出，開始提高我們的比重總體上花費在我們自己的減排上。再一次，二疊紀將是我們特別關注的另一個地方，重新啟動我們在下游的暫停項目。然後你會很清楚我們在化學品方面正在進行的大型項目。所以這才是真正造成差異的原因。我想說的是，我們如何考慮降落在中間而不是該範圍內的不同端，但顯然相對於我們在較長時間內給出的範圍（即 200 億至 250 億美元）收緊了範圍。

That's helpful. And my second question, I wanted to touch on the performance products within Chems. You've often discussed that's a driver of your earnings growth over the next few years and high-grading the business, and so I just wanted to hopefully get some context around the comment about 7% growth in performance product volumes. Can you help us understand what types of earnings uplift that provides and how you think about earnings growth within that performance products business moving forward?

這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是，我想談談 Chems 中的性能產品。您經常討論這是您未來幾年收入增長和高評級業務的驅動力，所以我只是希望能從關於性能產品數量增長 7% 的評論中獲得一些背景信息。您能否幫助我們了解提供哪些類型的收益提升以及您如何看待該性能產品業務未來的收益增長？

Yes. So I'd go back to the corporate plan disclosures we had, where we talked about both within Chem and within Downstream, our focus on growing high-value, higher-margin projects, which would include low-emission fuels, and it would include high-performance lubricants in our lubricants portfolio as well as what we would describe as chemical performance products and looking to double the volume of those products kind of over the plan period And ultimately as we look at the combination of Downstream and Chem over that period of time, looking to triple earnings. And so it is a strong component of what sits behind tripling earnings. But I'd also say, and this comes through our breakeven analysis, continuing to reduce the structural costs within the business across all elements of the business also are a driver of that increased cash flow and earnings power. So that's how I would think about how we're looking to continue to upgrade the mix within both Downstream and Chemical.

是的。所以我要回到我們的公司計劃披露，我們在化學和下游都談到了我們對發展高價值、高利潤項目的關注，其中包括低排放燃料，它包括我們的潤滑油產品組合中的高性能潤滑油以及我們將其描述為化學性能產品的產品，並希望在計劃期內將這些產品的數量翻一番，最終，當我們看到下游和化學在這段時間內的組合時時間，希望將收入增加三倍。因此，它是三倍收益背後的重要組成部分。但我還要說，這是通過我們的盈虧平衡分析得出的，繼續降低業務所有要素的結構成本也是增加現金流和盈利能力的驅動力。這就是我如何看待我們如何繼續升級下游和化工領域的組合。

And maybe just a little bit of color commentary with respect to when we talk about performance, say, in the chemical company, what drives that, and it's built on a pretty fundamental competitive advantage with respect to our technology capabilities and the work that we do with catalyst. And the developments that we've made give many of our chemical products unique characteristics, characteristics and use. And then -- so that's a really important part of the value equation. And then we have invested in the science and technology to work with customers on applications to take advantage of those unique properties. And we have labs in China and other places around the world to support our customers, and value -- the value and use of that improved performance then is shared with customers and ourselves which gives that uplift on our performance products.

當我們談論績效時，也許只是一點點色彩評論，比如說，在化工公司，是什麼推動了這一點，它建立在我們的技術能力和我們所做的工作方面的相當基本的競爭優勢之上與催化劑。我們所做的開發使我們的許多化學產品具有獨特的特性、特性和用途。然後 - 所以這是價值等式的一個非常重要的部分。然後我們在科學和技術上進行了投資，與客戶合作開發應用程序，以利用這些獨特的特性。我們在中國和世界其他地方都有實驗室來支持我們的客戶，並且重視——改進性能的價值和使用然後與客戶和我們自己分享，從而提升我們的性能產品。

And next, we'll go to Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將與美國銀行一起前往 Doug Leggate。

Well, shocking news this morning. Congratulations, Stephen. We will miss you indeed. I look forward to chatting with you before you leave.

好吧，今天早上有一個令人震驚的消息。恭喜，斯蒂芬。我們真的會想念你的。我期待在你離開之前與你聊天。

So guys, I wonder if I could go to Slide 12 and just ask you to walk through a little bit more color on the breakeven guidance that you're talking about. And my specific question is you're talking about an average breakeven between $22 billion and $27 billion, but a lot of your higher-margin projects come on at the back end of that period, specifically Guyana. So what does the breakeven look like at the end of the period as opposed to the average?

所以，伙計們，我想知道我是否可以轉到第 12 張幻燈片，並請您對您正在談論的盈虧平衡指南進行更多的說明。我的具體問題是，您所說的平均盈虧平衡在 220 億美元到 270 億美元之間，但是您的許多利潤率較高的項目都是在那個時期的後期進行的，特別是圭亞那。那麼，與平均水平相比，期末盈虧平衡點是什麼樣的呢？

So you're probably asking questions that I'll dive into a bit more detail when we get to Investor Day, Doug, but you're right. What we walked through on this slide and specifically on the bottom of the slide, where we did the walk from our current breakeven to that average in '22 to '27 of $35. What I would tell you is, as a result of the comment with regard to the portfolio improvement continuing to take place over time, as you would expect, we start out at the higher end and then move to the lower end. So I would tell you our progress, while not exactly linear, continues to be fairly consistent over that period of time. And we'll definitely dive into that a bit further when we get to Investor Day.

所以你可能會問一些問題，當我們到投資者日時，我會更詳細地討論，道格，但你是對的。我們在這張幻燈片上經歷了什麼，特別是在幻燈片的底部，我們從目前的盈虧平衡點走到了 22 年到 27 年 35 美元的平均水平。我要告訴你的是，由於關於投資組合改進的評論隨著時間的推移繼續發生，正如你所期望的那樣，我們從高端開始，然後轉向低端。所以我會告訴你，我們的進展雖然不完全是線性的，但在那段時間裡仍然相當一致。當我們到投資者日時，我們肯定會更深入地探討這一點。

And I would add, Doug -- I would add that the high end of that range is consistent with what we're showing in 2021.

我要補充一點，道格——我要補充一點，該範圍的高端與我們在 2021 年展示的情況一致。

Okay. So it's probably below 35% is the bottom line at the end of the period. Arithmetically, it would have to be, right?

好的。因此，期末的底線可能低於 35%。從算術上講，它必須是，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, okay. My follow-up is actually -- I guess it's kind of a cash distribution question. A $0.01 dividend increase, you basically did what Chevron did 5 years ago, but they didn't have the growth story. The free cash trajectory that we see is pretty significant this year beyond what you've laid out even with the buyback. So my question is could we ever see Exxon do like an interim dividend increase? Or put differently, what are you going to do with all the cash?

好吧好吧。我的後續行動實際上是 - 我想這是一個現金分配問題。股息增加 0.01 美元，你基本上做了雪佛龍 5 年前所做的事情，但他們沒有增長的故事。今年我們看到的自由現金軌跡非常重要，超出了您在回購時所設定的範圍。所以我的問題是，我們能否看到埃克森美孚確實喜歡增加中期股息？或者換一種說法，你打算用所有的現金做什麼？

I guess, a, I'm not going to get out in front of the Board's decision with regard to further distributions to shareholders. We've talked previously, as we've looked at our dividend, that some of the metrics that we look at is both our dividend yield relative to our peers' dividend yield relative to, I'll call it, the total dividend yield on average on the market as well as looking at our payout ratio. Our overall dividend size is larger than what our peers would be, and we have been more towards the top end of the range, both on yield as well as on payout ratio. Obviously, as we see the improved overall results at the company, that, naturally, is starting to impact both of those metrics which we'll consider -- continue to be considered as the Board looks to make decisions going forward. But I'd say, as we sit here today, we continue to feel pretty good about what our dividend yield is and its competitiveness.

我想，a，我不會在董事會關於進一步分配給股東的決定之前出面。我們之前已經討論過，當我們查看我們的股息時，我們查看的一些指標是我們的股息收益率相對於我們同行的股息收益率，我稱之為總股息收益率市場平均水平以及我們的派息率。我們的整體股息規模大於我們的同行，而且無論是收益率還是派息率，我們都更接近該範圍的高端。顯然，當我們看到公司整體業績有所改善時，這自然會開始影響我們將考慮的這兩個指標——在董事會希望做出未來決策時繼續考慮。但我想說，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們仍然對我們的股息收益率及其競爭力感到非常滿意。

Yes. And I would add, Doug, that the Board evaluates that quarterly, so it's an ongoing discussion. We don't have a fixed time period. It's a function of the things that Kathy talked about.

是的。 Doug，我要補充一點，董事會每季度評估一次，所以這是一個持續的討論。我們沒有固定的時間段。這是凱西談到的事情的一個功能。

Next, we'll go to Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將與摩根士丹利一起去德文麥克德莫特。

Stephen, congrats on the retirement.

斯蒂芬，祝賀你退休。

Thank you, Devin.

謝謝你，德文。

So my first question is on some of the structural cost efficiencies. You've all done a great job in bringing those to fruition here over the last few years and are still talking about exceeding the $6 billion structural target by 2023. I can't help but notice that in the waterfall chart on longer-term breakevens, you're showing an incremental $5 billion of cost reductions relative to '21 levels would imply pretty significant increase in that longer-term target. Could you talk a little bit more about some of the incremental opportunities that you identified? And I'd imagine that some of the structural changes at the corporate level that you've announced recently are part of that.

所以我的第一個問題是關於一些結構性成本效率。在過去的幾年裡，你們都在實現這些目標方面做得很好，並且仍在談論到 2023 年超過 60 億美元的結構性目標。我不禁注意到，在長期盈虧平衡的瀑布圖中，相對於 21 年的水平，您展示了 50 億美元的增量成本降低，這意味著該長期目標將顯著增加。你能多談談你發現的一些增量機會嗎？我想你最近宣布的公司層面的一些結構性變化是其中的一部分。

Sure. And just to be clear on the chart that Kathy walked folks through, the 5 that we're showing on that bottom chart is dollars per barrel. It's not billions of dollars, so just to be clear on that.

當然。只是為了在凱西帶領人們通過的圖表上清楚，我們在底部圖表上顯示的 5 是每桶美元。這不是數十億美元，所以要清楚這一點。

Understood.

明白了。

And so I think the heart of the reductions that you're seeing as we go forward is a function of capturing the best of what the corporation can bring to bear in each one of our businesses. Just a little bit of background, Devin, we started with process safety and basically, several years ago, launched an effort to take the best thinking that we had in each of our businesses, bring that together, come up with one approach to managing process safety and then roll that out across the organization. That has resulted in eliminating a lot of duplicate or programs running in parallel that brings cost. So we've saved with respect to the work that we are doing in that space. But much, much more importantly, we improved our results and have significantly reduced process safety events.

因此，我認為您在我們前進的過程中看到的削減的核心是捕捉公司可以為我們的每一項業務帶來的最佳效果。只是一點背景，德文，我們從流程安全開始，基本上，幾年前，我們開始努力採用我們在每個業務中的最佳思維，將它們結合在一起，提出一種管理流程的方法安全，然後在整個組織中推廣。這導致消除了許多重複或併行運行的程序，這會帶來成本。因此，我們已經節省了我們在該領域所做的工作。但更重要的是，我們改進了結果並顯著減少了過程安全事件。

And so we're continuing down that path, but it highlighted the strength of kind of capturing the learnings that have occurred across our different businesses over the decades. And the quality thinking that we have in each of our organizations and bringing those experts together and having them address the problem on a corporate-wide basis is delivering good results.

因此，我們繼續沿著這條道路前進，但它強調了捕捉幾十年來我們不同業務中發生的學習的力量。我們在每個組織中的質量思維以及將這些專家聚集在一起並讓他們在整個公司範圍內解決問題正在產生良好的結果。

We saw the same thing with reliability when we brought, again, the best thinking of the corporation across the different operating companies together to solve the challenge of how do we improve reliability structurally and sustainably across all of our businesses. This team came up with ideas and implementations that, once again, significantly lowered our cost and is improving our performance.

當我們再次將公司在不同運營公司中的最佳思維聚集在一起，以解決我們如何在所有業務中結構性和可持續地提高可靠性的挑戰時，我們在可靠性方面看到了同樣的事情。該團隊提出的想法和實施再次顯著降低了我們的成本並提高了我們的績效。

And so that is the kind of the recipe that we're executing across a very wide range of opportunities. We're bringing the maintenance activities and thinking about the above-site maintenance, how you -- what are the processes, how do you go about that into that same type of approach, leveraging the best of the corporation, which we expect to see significant improvements in our maintenance and turnaround spend, technology and engineering that the new company or the new group that we're forming is basically, again, doing the same thing, best capabilities from each of our businesses. We have technology functions within each of our companies. We're bringing those things together, same with engineering. And we, again, expect to end up doing things much more cost efficiently for much more effect.

這就是我們在非常廣泛的機會中執行的那種配方。我們正在開展維護活動並考慮上述現場維護，您如何 - 流程是什麼，您如何將其轉化為相同類型的方法，利用我們期望看到的最好的公司我們正在組建的新公司或新集團基本上再次在做同樣的事情，我們每個業務的最佳能力，在我們的維護和周轉支出、技術和工程方面都有顯著改善。我們在每個公司內都有技術職能。我們將這些東西放在一起，與工程相同。而且，我們再次期望最終以更具成本效益的方式做事，以獲得更大的效果。

And that -- so the savings that we see, going forward, are really the result of a lot of different things being applied across a huge scale of our operations to significantly reduce cost. And there are other opportunities in the future. Think about supply chain. Think about some of the financial transactions as we've, over the course of 2018 and 2019, realigned our businesses and work processes so that now, as you look across our different businesses, we're conducting businesses in a very similar back-office approach, so to speak, that gives us an opportunity to capture the synergies that exist between those.

那 - 所以我們看到的節省，未來，實際上是在我們大規模的運營中應用了許多不同的東西以顯著降低成本的結果。未來還有其他機會。想想供應鏈。想想一些金融交易，因為我們在 2018 年和 2019 年期間重新調整了我們的業務和工作流程，因此現在，當您查看我們不同的業務時，我們正在一個非常相似的後台開展業務可以說，這種方法讓我們有機會捕捉它們之間存在的協同作用。

So a really broad range of opportunities as we kind of open the doors between the different businesses across our corporation, take the best that each has to offer, bring those together and come up with an answer that's better than any one on its own.

因此，當我們打開公司內不同業務之間的大門時，提供了非常廣泛的機會，充分利用每個業務所能提供的優勢，將它們結合在一起，並提出比任何單獨業務都更好的答案。

And I think that, again, plays to this -- the competitive advantages that I've been talking about since taking this job around leveraging our scale, leveraging the integration of our businesses, leveraging the functional excellence that each of these companies have developed, how do we better take advantage of that, and then leveraging our technology and bringing that all together by leveraging the capabilities of our people. So that recipe is beginning to pay off and frankly hard to see where we -- where that ends with respect to the improvements that we've got lined up for the business.

而且我認為，這再次發揮了這一作用——自從我接受這份工作以來，我一直在談論的競爭優勢是利用我們的規模，利用我們的業務整合，利用這些公司各自開發的卓越功能，我們如何更好地利用這一點，然後利用我們的技術並通過利用我們員工的能力將所有這些整合在一起。因此，這個秘訣開始得到回報，坦率地說，我們很難看到我們在哪裡 - 就我們為業務安排的改進而言，它在哪裡結束。

Very helpful. And my second question is on M&A. In addition to the high-return investment opportunity, you highlight selective M&A as an opportunity in the slide deck. I was just wondering if you could talk in a little bit more detail about what strategically you'd be looking for at this point in time.

很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於併購的。除了高回報的投資機會外，您還在幻燈片中強調了選擇性併購是一個機會。我只是想知道您是否可以更詳細地談談您目前在戰略上要尋找的東西。

I'll answer that, and if Kathy has anything to add, I'll turn it over to her. But as we've talked about for quite some time, we do have an ongoing active M&A group that -- but we look for things that -- where we can and bring it into our portfolio, add unique value, grow unique value. So it's got to be something that -- where we feel like there's a synergy or a fit with what we're currently doing to lever that value up and see accretion very early on.

我會回答，如果凱西有什麼要補充的，我會把它交給她。但正如我們已經討論了很長一段時間的那樣，我們確實有一個持續活躍的併購團隊——但我們尋找的東西——我們可以將其納入我們的投資組合，增加獨特價值，增加獨特價值。所以它必須是這樣的——我們覺得與我們目前正在做的事情有協同作用或契合，以提高價值並儘早看到增長。

And so that's how we're looking at that, and we look at it across all of our businesses for opportunities. And you've seen that kind of play out in the Chemical business here with an acquisition last year. You've seen it play out in our Downstream business, and so I think that's a very active program. But bottom line is we've got to look at what that opportunity looks like in the context of what ExxonMobil can bring to bear then make sure that we're in a position to effectively leverage our core competencies, skill sets and capabilities to grow value beyond what either one companies could do independently. And that's how we assess and think about that. Kathy, anything to add?

這就是我們看待這個問題的方式，我們在所有業務中都在尋找機會。你已經在去年的收購中看到了化學業務的這種發展。你已經看到它在我們的下游業務中發揮作用，所以我認為這是一個非常活躍的計劃。但最重要的是，我們必須在埃克森美孚能夠帶來的背景下審視這個機會是什麼樣的，然後確保我們能夠有效利用我們的核心競爭力、技能組合和能力來增加價值超出任何一家公司可以獨立做的事情。這就是我們評估和思考的方式。凱西，有什麼要補充的嗎？

The only other thing I'd add is in the low-carbon emission space, we're also actively assessing things, and we would have discussed the fact that we made an investment in Biojet. I'll call it a biodiesel company that's out in Norway where we also have an offtake agreement. So we continue to look at opportunities in that space as well.

我唯一要補充的另一件事是在低碳排放領域，我們也在積極評估事情，我們會討論我們對 Biojet 進行投資的事實。我稱它為一家位於挪威的生物柴油公司，我們在那裡也有承購協議。因此，我們也繼續關注該領域的機會。

Next question will be from Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin。

Congrats, Stephen.

恭喜，斯蒂芬。

Thanks, Sam.

謝謝，山姆。

So my first question is on the emissions statement that you made, where you're 4 years ahead of your target for 2025. It's interesting because the final data is not out yet, but I suspect that global emissions hit a record in 2021, just based on the amount of coal that came through the monthly supply numbers. And a lot of execution in the low-carbon business is around policy and communicating to regulators what's most beneficial for society. So in the context of Exxon's emissions starting to fall and global emissions still rising, has -- do you feel like your seat at the table has potentially improved or your influence is getting stronger? Or is it still very early in the process?

所以我的第一個問題是關於你所做的排放聲明，你比 2025 年的目標提前了 4 年。這很有趣，因為最終數據還沒有出來，但我懷疑全球排放量在 2021 年創下歷史新高，只是基於每月供應量的煤炭數量。低碳業務的很多執行都圍繞著政策和向監管機構傳達什麼對社會最有利。因此，在埃克森美孚的排放量開始下降而全球排放量仍在上升的背景下，您是否覺得自己的席位可能有所提高，或者您的影響力正在增強？還是在這個過程中還很早？

Well, I think -- it's a great question, Sam. I think as we've talked about before, this is a really complicated space, and it deals with the really important part of people's lives and the resiliency of economies around the world. And so I think I've been encouraged, frankly, by the growth in terms of the folks who are working in the space and actively thinking through how best to achieve and address what we've been talking about for some time to deal with challenge. and I think there's a growing recognition and a growing acceptance of the need for a variety of solutions and approaches to strike that balance correctly and make sure that we make progress on lowering emissions, but at the same time, don't compromise the quality of people's lives.

嗯，我認為——這是一個很好的問題，Sam。我認為正如我們之前談到的，這是一個非常複雜的領域，它涉及人們生活中真正重要的部分以及全球經濟的彈性。因此，坦率地說，我認為我一直受到在該領域工作並積極思考如何最好地實現和解決我們一直在談論的問題以應對挑戰的人的增長的鼓舞.我認為人們越來越認識到和越來越多地接受需要各種解決方案和方法來正確實現這種平衡，並確保我們在降低排放方面取得進展，但同時，不要犧牲質量人們的生活。

And I think what we're seeing play out today in Europe, certainly, I think, has made that point clear in terms of some of the challenges associated with moving quickly in the space or not thinking through all the potential downsides and unintended consequences. And we've seen that here in the U.S. with some of the tightness of supply, and so that is the challenge.

我認為我們今天在歐洲看到的情況，當然，我認為，就與在太空中快速發展或沒有考慮所有潛在的不利因素和意想不到的後果相關的一些挑戰而言，這一點已經清楚地表明了這一點。我們已經在美國看到了供應緊張的情況，這就是挑戰。

We are committed to helping society make that reduction. We are working hard to catalyze the right kind of policy to incentivize and to drive emissions down faster while, at the same time, protecting people's standard of living and livelihood. There are options to do that. It does require some policy in different places, and we're seeing some of that policy manifest itself in some of the countries around the world, which underpins the work that we're doing in low-carbon solutions.

我們致力於幫助社會實現減排。我們正在努力推動正確的政策來激勵和減少排放，同時保護人們的生活水平和生計。有一些選項可以做到這一點。它確實需要在不同的地方制定一些政策，我們看到其中一些政策在世界上一些國家得到體現，這為我們在低碳解決方案方面所做的工作奠定了基礎。

And that's a global business with opportunities that we see developing all around the planet in many, many countries, and there's policy in place today to support those investments, which is what's driving certainly in the early days. And then I think those policies and investments set good examples for other countries to consider and to think about, in line with the needs of their constituencies.

這是一個全球性的業務，我們看到許多國家在全球各地都有機會發展，今天有政策支持這些投資，這在早期肯定是推動因素。然後我認為這些政策和投資為其他國家樹立了很好的榜樣，可以根據其選區的需求來考慮和思考。

So I am encouraged. I do feel like there's a better conversation happening. Obviously, a long ways to go there and a lot of work to be done, both from a policy standpoint as well as from the companies participating in the market.

所以我很受鼓舞。我確實覺得正在進行更好的對話。顯然，無論從政策角度還是從參與市場的公司的角度來看，要實現這一目標還有很長的路要走，還有很多工作要做。

And then so this is a follow-up about the Low Carbon Solutions organization in the company. A lot of the efforts there are connected to existing operations, right, carbon capture on facilities or biofuels coming off of refinery parks. And so is the intent to fully disaggregate all of that from the base business so that we can kind of map the revenue trend line and associate that with an emissions abatement number and watch our progress that way? Or is that more of an organizational function and not necessarily a financial segment yet?

然後，這是關於公司低碳解決方案組織的後續行動。那裡的許多努力都與現有運營有關，對，設施上的碳捕獲或煉油廠園區的生物燃料。是否打算將所有這些與基礎業務完全分離，以便我們可以繪製收入趨勢線並將其與減排數字相關聯，並以這種方式觀察我們的進展？或者這更像是一種組織功能，而不一定是財務部門？

So I'd say, right now, our focus is on building that third-party business, right? We have, I'd say, a huge number of projects in the pipeline. We feel very good about the progress that's been made in a pretty short period of time since we launched the low-carbon emission business, but we also have the overall activities in terms of reducing our own emissions. And those activities are really the prime accountability of the business lines. And so there's an overall, I'll call it, corporate coordination, best practice role that's taking place there. That's part of what enabled us to actually expect to meet the 2025 goals ahead of time.

所以我想說，現在，我們的重點是建立第三方業務，對嗎？我想說，我們有大量的項目正在籌備中。我們對開展低碳業務在很短的時間內取得的進展感到非常滿意，但我們在減少自身排放方面也有整體活動。這些活動確實是業務線的主要責任。所以有一個整體，我稱之為公司協調，在那裡發生的最佳實踐角色。這是使我們能夠真正預期提前實現 2025 年目標的部分原因。

So when we talk about our overall efforts as it relates to emissions in their entirety, we're always talking about what we're doing within our own 4 walls and then what we're doing to help reduce, I'll call it, our customers' emissions, or more broadly, what the company does in terms of the products and technologies that it offers in helping to reduce society's emissions with lower life cycle emission-type product.

因此，當我們談論與排放有關的整體努力時，我們總是在談論我們在自己的 4 堵牆內所做的事情，然後我們正在做些什麼來幫助減少，我稱之為，我們客戶的排放量，或者更廣泛地說，公司在產品和技術方面所做的工作，它通過低生命週期排放型產品幫助減少社會排放量。

So that's how we think about it. And certainly, first and foremost, that third-party business is something we're focused on building today. So we are not expecting that that's going to be a, I'll call it, new segment that we're disclosing as opposed to just focusing on building that business which is still in its early stages.

所以我們就是這麼想的。當然，最重要的是，第三方業務是我們今天專注於建設的東西。因此，我們並不期望這將成為我們正在披露的新細分市場，而不是僅僅專注於建立仍處於早期階段的業務。

You can imagine, Sam, if you think about looking across more in our global portfolio and then opportunities with customers or third parties is understanding what's the lowest cost of abatement? How much CO2 can you reduce for the lowest dollar spent? That group has a good perspective that we're leveraging across all the opportunities, whether they're internal or external. And frankly, if you look at the portfolio of opportunities that we're looking at as a company, there's a really good mix between what we're going to be doing at our own facilities, opportunities to provide lower-emissions products for our customers and then opportunities to reduce industry-wide CO2 emissions.

Sam，您可以想像，如果您考慮在我們的全球產品組合中尋找更多機會，那麼與客戶或第三方的機會就是了解什麼是最低的減排成本？花費最少的美元可以減少多少二氧化碳？該小組有一個很好的視角，我們正在利用所有機會，無論是內部的還是外部的。坦率地說，如果你看看我們作為一家公司正在尋找的機會組合，我們將在自己的設施中做的事情，為我們的客戶提供低排放產品的機會之間有一個非常好的組合然後是減少全行業二氧化碳排放的機會。

So it's got a good mix today. We're very early in this process. I mean, this is a very dynamic space. If you think back a couple of years ago, hydrogen and carbon capture, and frankly, even biofuels, were struggling to kind of be in the mix in terms of potential solutions, whereas, today, I think people recognize the importance they're going to play going forward. And so I would just say it's rapidly evolving.

所以今天的組合很好。我們處於這個過程的早期階段。我的意思是，這是一個非常動態的空間。如果你回想幾年前，氫和碳捕獲，坦率地說，甚至是生物燃料，在潛在解決方案方面都在努力融入其中，而今天，我認為人們認識到他們正在努力的重要性繼續前進。所以我只想說它正在迅速發展。

There's a lot of interest. We've certainly had a lot of interest expressed in our business and the opportunities we're pursuing, so I would say we'll keep talking about that. You'll see that business grow with time as places around the world take the steps to make the necessary reductions.

有很多興趣。我們當然對我們的業務和我們正在追求的機會表達了很多興趣，所以我想說我們會繼續討論這個問題。隨著世界各地採取措施進行必要的削減，您會看到業務隨著時間的推移而增長。

By the way, it's Lunar New Year, and it's the Year of the Tiger, so that seems potentially significant.

順便說一句，現在是農曆新年，又是虎年，所以這似乎很重要。

Glad to hear that.

很高興聽您這麼說。

We'll go to Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們將和高盛一起去尼爾梅塔。

Congrats on strong results, and congrats to you, Stephen, on your retirement here. I have a couple of questions for you. The first is on the Permian. Darren, can you just provide an update on how you're thinking about prosecuting that asset? We heard from Chevron. They're thinking about 10% type of growth in the Permian in 2022 versus 2021. How are you thinking about volume growth? And then, in general, what is the right approach to maximizing value from the Permian relative to what you were talking about a couple of years ago?

祝賀你取得了不錯的成績，並祝賀你，斯蒂芬，在這裡退休。我有幾個問題要問你。第一個是在二疊紀。達倫，您能否提供有關您如何考慮起訴該資產的最新信息？我們收到了雪佛龍的消息。他們正在考慮 2022 年與 2021 年二疊紀 10% 的增長。您如何看待產量增長？然後，總的來說，相對於你幾年前所說的，最大化二疊紀價值的正確方法是什麼？

Yes. Sure, Neil. And I think maybe I'll start with where you ended, which is what we were talking about a couple of years ago, which you recall, we talked about, I think the terms I used were -- right now, the industry is playing a short game, and we're a long ball hitter. And how do you do -- how do you take the long ball game into the unconventional space? And that led to the approach that Neil Chapman has talked about over the last couple of years with respect to setting up more of a manufacturing approach and driving efficiencies and driving technology applications into that -- those developments. And that has worked very, very well, and we're seeing the results of that.

是的。當然，尼爾。我想也許我會從你結束的地方開始，這是我們幾年前討論的，你記得，我們討論過，我認為我使用的術語是 - 現在，這個行業正在發揮作用一場短暫的比賽，我們是一名長球擊球手。你是怎麼做的——你如何把長球比賽帶入非常規的空間？這導致了尼爾查普曼在過去幾年中談到的關於建立更多的製造方法、提高效率和推動技術應用的方法——這些發展。這非常非常有效，我們正在看到結果。

So we grew our Permian production from '20 to 2021 by over 25%. Our expectation, as we go into 2022, is to grow another 25%, and that's doing that with a very tight control on capital. So that's how we're playing the game, and we continue to look at within our -- the approach that we outlined a couple of years ago and the success that we've seen with that and bringing to bear a lot of the technology and application expertise, think drilling and reservoir management that the rest of the corporation has, really seeing the benefits of that. We're going to make sure that we stay in that envelope.

因此，我們的二疊紀產量從 20 年到 2021 年增長了 25% 以上。隨著我們進入 2022 年，我們的預期是再增長 25%，這是在對資本進行非常嚴格的控制的情況下實現的。所以這就是我們玩遊戲的方式，我們繼續關注我們幾年前概述的方法以及我們在此方面看到的成功，並帶來了很多技術和應用專業知識，想想公司其他人擁有的鑽井和油藏管理，真正看到了它的好處。我們將確保我們留在那個信封裡。

And obviously, as we progress production and development, new horizons are opening up, and we've got more delineation work to do that will continue to kind of grow the understanding of where the opportunities are. And we'll progress those in the context of staying within that concept that we've laid out, which we're seeing allows us to bring barrels to market at a very low cost. And that's going to be an important part of the equation, maintaining that low-cost, high-value operation.

顯然，隨著我們生產和開發的推進，新的視野正在打開，我們還有更多的劃定工作要做，這將繼續加深對機會所在的理解。我們將在保持我們已經制定的概念的背景下取得進展，我們看到這使我們能夠以非常低的成本將桶推向市場。這將成為等式的重要組成部分，維持低成本、高價值的運營。

Do you have a number in mind from a volume perspective as you think about this year?

考慮到今年，您是否從數量的角度考慮了一個數字？

So this year, I think we're going to be 25% up. We expect to be 25% up from 2021, which is consistent with how -- the increase that we saw from 2020 to 2021.

所以今年，我認為我們將增長 25%。我們預計將比 2021 年增長 25%，這與我們從 2020 年到 2021 年看到的增長方式一致。

Okay, very helpful. And then I really like this exhibit -- or Page 12 of the slide with the breakevens, and I know we spent a lot of time on it already on the cost and the volume side. But the big number here is mix, the $9 a barrel. Can you spend some time talking about the composition of it? How much of it is Upstream versus fuel versus Chemicals? And any more granularity that we can expect at the Analyst Day to help us break down the mix shift that you're seeing in the business?

好的，很有幫助。然後我真的很喜歡這個展覽——或者幻燈片的第 12 頁的盈虧平衡點，我知道我們已經在成本和數量方面花了很多時間。但這裡的大數字是混合的，每桶 9 美元。你能花點時間談談它的組成嗎？上游與燃料與化學品有多少？我們可以在分析師日期待更多的粒度來幫助我們打破您在業務中看到的混合轉變嗎？

Sure. So look, overall, the business composition, by its nature, is heavy Upstream relative to Downstream and Chem. So as you think about that mix, all of the businesses are contributing to the favorable mix. Upstream has an outsized contribution. We talked about in our strategic plan that 70% of those investments were in, I'll call it, the strategic upstream development area, so Guyana, Permian, Brazil, bringing on more LNG, those are really what are fueling, I would call, the Upstream improvement in the portfolio.

當然。因此，總體而言，就其性質而言，相對於下游和化學而言，上游業務構成較重。因此，當您考慮這種組合時，所有業務都在為有利的組合做出貢獻。上游有巨大的貢獻。我們在戰略計劃中談到，其中 70% 的投資都在，我稱之為戰略上游開發區，所以圭亞那、二疊紀、巴西，帶來更多的液化天然氣，這些確實是燃料，我稱之為, 投資組合的上游改進。

And then we also talked about, by the time we get to 2027 in Downstream and Chem, over 40% of the earnings coming from those high-value, high-performance products. So you do get a mixture, overall, but obviously a very big change overall in the portfolio coming from the Upstream. And overall, that's what the big drivers are. We've talked about 50% of our volume from post-2020 start-ups in 2027 from the Upstream, so just to give you another stat in terms of how significant the mix change is there.

然後我們還談到，到 2027 年，Downstream 和 Chem 將有超過 40% 的收入來自這些高價值、高性能的產品。因此，總體而言，您確實得到了混合，但顯然來自上游的投資組合總體上發生了非常大的變化。總的來說，這就是主要的驅動因素。我們已經討論了 2027 年 2027 年 2020 年後初創企業的 50% 的銷量來自上游，所以只是為了給你另一個關於混合變化有多大的統計數據。

Our next question will come from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題將來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

First, Stephen, thank you for the help, and congratulations and wish you a wonderful retirement.

首先，斯蒂芬，感謝您的幫助，祝賀您並祝您退休愉快。

Thanks, Paul.

謝謝，保羅。

Two questions, please, I think for Darren. You guys have just announced sort of a streamline [topic] restructuring. But historically that your chemical and refining is already wanting as -- maybe as coordinating as anyone, I mean 70%, I think, of your chemical facility linked to -- directly to your refinery operation. And you're always in the management committee that have an executive sort of overseeing both chemical and refining. So with this structural change, are we talking about major headcount reduction? Is that the rationale behind? Or how exactly the topic realignment really changing the way how -- what consider probably really seamless and one of the best in the industry in coordinating between chemical And refining? I mean, how is that really going to change that [post] and further improve?

請提兩個問題，我想給達倫。你們剛剛宣布了一種精簡的[主題]重組。但從歷史上看，您的化學和精煉已經需要 - 可能與任何人一樣協調，我的意思是，我認為 70% 的化學設施與 - 直接與您的煉油廠運營相關聯。而且您總是在管理委員會中，該管理委員會具有監督化學和煉油的執行力。那麼，隨著這種結構性變化，我們是在談論大幅裁員嗎？這就是背後的原因嗎？或者主題重新調整究竟如何真正改變了方式 - 什麼認為可能真正無縫並且在化學和煉油之間進行協調是業內最好的之一？我的意思是，這將如何真正改變 [post] 並進一步改進？

And maybe after that, then I will ask the second question.

也許在那之後，我會問第二個問題。

Okay. Yes. So I think a good observation, and I would echo the points you made, which is if you look at our Chemical and Downstream business, historically, they have been very well coordinated, I think amongst the best within the industry. I would say, though, there's a difference between coordinating between 2 owners and then having a single owner. And -- we really see the opportunity as to have one set of management overlooking those businesses and making sure that we're prioritizing across those businesses and those resources; making sure that we're prioritizing, not only the investments that we're making in the facilities, but the allocation of the resources, our technical resources, our engineering resources; and pursuing the highest priority payout opportunities across those 2. And it's difficult to do today across 2 separate organizations.

好的。是的。所以我認為這是一個很好的觀察，我會回應你的觀點，如果你看看我們的化工和下游業務，從歷史上看，它們一直很好地協調，我認為是業內最好的。不過，我想說的是，在 2 個所有者之間進行協調和擁有一個所有者之間是有區別的。而且——我們確實看到了讓一組管理人員俯瞰這些業務並確保我們優先考慮這些業務和這些資源的機會；確保我們優先考慮的不僅僅是我們在設施上的投資，還有資源分配、我們的技術資源、我們的工程資源；並在這 2 個組織中追求最高優先級的支付機會。如今，在 2 個獨立的組織中很難做到這一點。

This will improve upon that. So we've got a good base case. We think we're going to make this even better. And we've demonstrated the power of that to ourselves, frankly, in a couple of previous organizational changes. I'll just take the Upstream business. When you think about the functional companies that we had in our Upstream business, many of them, working very closely together and coordinating. We then consolidated all those businesses from 3 -- from 7, 3, 2 and now down to 1. As we step through each of those, despite what I would say is the best intention of the organizations and working collaboratively together, you get a step change in performance and opportunities to reduce cost and becoming more efficient as you consolidate those. And so we're going to see, we believe, the same opportunity within the Downstream in the chemical portfolio.

這將在此基礎上有所改進。所以我們有一個很好的基礎案例。我們認為我們會做得更好。坦率地說，在之前的幾次組織變革中，我們已經向自己展示了它的力量。我只負責上游業務。當您考慮我們在上游業務中擁有的職能公司時，其中許多公司非常緊密地合作和協調。然後，我們將所有這些業務從 3 - 從 7、3、2 到現在降至 1。當我們逐步完成每一個業務時，儘管我想說的是組織的最佳意圖並協同工作，你會得到一個績效和機會的階躍變化，以降低成本並在您整合這些方面變得更加高效。因此，我們相信，我們將在化工產品組合的下游看到同樣的機會。

The other point I would make, which I don't want to go unrecognized, is by taking and centralizing what I will call service delivery processes out of those businesses and again bringing the best corporation has to offer and then high-grading the thinking there, as I talked about with process safety and reliability, doing that in maintenance, we think is going to drive a step-change improvement with respect to how we execute maintenance across the entire portfolio. So there's this opportunity to consolidate expertise and then leverage that across all of our operating companies. And so those 2 things, I think, are going to be very, very critical.

我要提出的另一點，我不想被忽視，是通過從這些業務中提取和集中我將稱之為服務交付流程的內容，並再次帶來最好的公司必須提供的內容，然後對那裡的想法進行高度評價，正如我談到的過程安全性和可靠性，在維護中這樣做，我們認為將推動我們如何在整個產品組合中執行維護方面的階梯式改進。因此，有機會整合專業知識，然後在我們所有的運營公司中加以利用。因此，我認為這兩件事將非常非常關鍵。

And the third point I would make with respect to headcount reductions, that's not what we see driving this improvement opportunity. We made those tough decisions back in 2020. We recognized how hard that was going to be on the organization, and we stretched ourselves to make sure that when we put together our plans for that, we, as best as possible, comprehended what was to come and made this a onetime deal as much as we can and therefore stretch ourselves to then move the organization to the level of efficiency that we need to support a lower staffing. And that's the work that we've been doing.

關於裁員我想說的第三點，這不是我們認為推動這一改進機會的原因。早在 2020 年，我們就做出了這些艱難的決定。我們認識到這對組織來說將是多麼艱難，我們竭盡全力確保當我們為此制定計劃時，我們盡可能地理解要做什麼來吧，盡可能多地把它做成一次性的交易，因此伸展自己，然後將組織提升到我們需要支持較低人員配置的效率水平。這就是我們一直在做的工作。

And then obviously, as attrition has occurred within our company and the industry more broadly and across the economy as a whole, we've been very thoughtful and cautious about what positions we fill and how we manage that attrition, again continuing to think through opportunities to get more efficient and take advantage of the attrition to make sure that we're managing our staffing in line with what we see as the ultimate opportunity. When you put all that together, we feel like we're in a fairly good position to execute this and not have the kind of one-off large redundancy programs that we went through in 2020.

然後很明顯，隨著我們公司內部和更廣泛的行業以及整個經濟中出現人員流失，我們對我們填補的職位以及我們如何管理流失一直非常深思熟慮和謹慎，再次繼續思考機會提高效率並利用人員流失確保我們按照我們認為的最終機會來管理我們的人員配置。當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們覺得我們處於一個相當好的位置來執行這個，並且沒有我們在 2020 年經歷的那種一次性的大型冗餘計劃。

Okay. And the second question maybe is for Kathy. That 20%, 21% debt to capital at a $90 oil price, obviously, is extremely comfortable, and one will argue that maybe it's low [lease]. But the volatility in the market is unpredictable. So from that standpoint, given you are generating a lot of free cash, should we continue to put a portion of that into the balance sheet, into the cash until you reach maybe an ultra-conservative, such as 0 net debt. I mean, if you look at in 2020, if you have a 0 net debt entering into the downturn, there's tremendous opportunity, whether it's from buyback or other things that you can do. So is that a reasonable approach for a business as unpredictable and volatile as oil and gas? Or do you think that's just clearly not the efficient use of capital structure?

好的。第二個問題可能是針對凱西的。顯然，在 90 美元的油價下，20%、21% 的資本債務是非常舒適的，有人會爭辯說，這可能是低 [租約]。但市場的波動是不可預測的。所以從這個角度來看，鑑於你正在產生大量的自由現金，我們是否應該繼續將其中的一部分存入資產負債表，存入現金，直到你達到一個極端保守的水平，比如零淨債務。我的意思是，如果你看看 2020 年，如果你的淨債務為 0 進入低迷期，那麼無論是來自回購還是其他你可以做的事情，都有巨大的機會。那麼對於像石油和天然氣這樣不可預測和不穩定的企業來說，這是一個合理的方法嗎？或者你認為這顯然不是資本結構的有效利用？

And on the side, quickly, if I can sneak in is can you talk about your U.S. cash tax payment position over the next several years?

另外，很快，如果我能偷偷溜進來，你能談談你未來幾年在美國的現金納稅情況嗎？

Okay. So overall, we would absolutely agree that during the best part of the cycle, we need to be really restoring our balance sheet and giving ourselves plenty of flexibility to contemplate what's ultimately going to be the down part of the cycle, which is difficult to call.

好的。所以總的來說，我們絕對同意，在周期的最佳階段，我們需要真正恢復我們的資產負債表，並給自己足夠的靈活性來考慮最終將是周期的下行部分，這很難說.

You would have heard me make commentary that we are going to further reduce our debt. We certainly think getting to the low end of, I'll call it, the total debt-to-cap range is something that we're absolutely targeting and expecting to achieve this year. And relative to where we've been historically, I'd say carrying a bit more cash is within the expectation as well. So I would say we're very aligned in understanding that during the top part of the cycle. We really want to make sure that we've built in a whole lot of flexibility and completely restored our balance sheet, continue to have really strong credit ratings.

你會聽到我發表評論說我們將進一步減少我們的債務。我們當然認為達到低端，我會稱之為總債務上限範圍是我們絕對目標並期望在今年實現的目標。相對於我們歷史上的情況，我想說攜帶更多現金也在預期之內。所以我想說，在周期的頂部，我們非常一致地理解這一點。我們真的想確保我們已經建立了很大的靈活性並完全恢復了我們的資產負債表，繼續擁有非常強大的信用評級。

We wouldn't, today, sit here and say we think we need to have 0 net debt or carry 0 debt overall. And that debt does serve also as a little bit of an offset against inflationary pressure to some extent. So I'd say we feel pretty comfortable that we're getting the balance right in both ensuring we have a strong balance sheet and plenty of liquidity, and also then during this part of the cycle, making sure that we have a path forward to continue to have that flexibility and return excess cash within our capital allocation priorities to shareholders.

今天，我們不會坐在這裡說我們認為我們需要擁有 0 淨債務或總體上承擔 0 債務。而且這些債務在一定程度上也起到了抵消通脹壓力的作用。所以我想說，我們感到很舒服，我們在確保我們擁有強大的資產負債表和充足的流動性方面取得了正確的平衡，然後在周期的這一部分，確保我們有前進的道路繼續保持這種靈活性，並將我們資本分配優先事項中的多餘現金返還給股東。

Yes. And I would add, Paul, I don't think you have to go too far back in time to just test how resilient the strategy that we had in place with respect to capital structure was. I mean, 2020, in the pandemic, we saw the worst conditions in this industry in living memory. And the fact that we managed through that extreme set of circumstances, maintained our commitment to our shareholders, continue to pay dividend, managed our capital program and basically kept all those projects that we were pursuing alive and slowed some of those down, paused and kept others going, that balance that we struck going through those extreme challenging times, I think, demonstrated the robustness of the approach that we are pursuing.

是的。我要補充一點，保羅，我認為你不必回到過去太遠，就可以測試我們在資本結構方面製定的戰略的彈性。我的意思是，在 2020 年的大流行中，我們看到了這個行業記憶中最糟糕的情況。事實上，我們度過了那一系列極端情況，保持了對股東的承諾，繼續支付股息，管理我們的資本計劃，基本上讓我們追求的所有項目保持活力，並放慢了其中一些項目的速度，暫停並保持我認為，其他人在經歷那些極具挑戰的時期所取得的平衡，證明了我們所追求的方法的穩健性。

And then I'll just come back to your second question. I'd say, as we look forward in the near term, just the next few years out, we don't really see our U.S. cash kind of tax position changing, but that is with a big caveat that there's obviously been a lot coming forward in Congress with respect to potential tax changes. And while the Build Back Better bill did not kind of ultimately go through, I also don't think it's entirely off the table in terms of coming back and seeing something smaller but likely to still have various tax provisions in it. But that's how you should think about it for the moment before we see any other legislative changes.

然後我會回到你的第二個問題。我想說，正如我們在短期內展望的那樣，就在接下來的幾年裡，我們並沒有真正看到我們的美國現金稅收狀況發生變化，但有一個很大的警告，顯然會有很多事情發生在國會就潛在的稅收變化提出意見。雖然“重建更好”法案最終沒有通過，但我也不認為它完全不在討論範圍內，因為它會回來看到一些更小但可能仍然有各種稅收規定的東西。但這就是在我們看到任何其他立法變化之前你應該暫時考慮的方式。

We'll take that last caller, will be Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們將接聽最後一位來電者，即富國銀行的 Roger Read。

Yes. I'd like to ask, international gas was exceptionally strong. I don't think it's a stretch to understand why, but I was curious as we look between LNG, domestic sales wherever those occurred. And then you had talked about building up a trading organization, and I was curious if that was a positive contributor this quarter?

是的。我想問一下，國際氣特別旺盛。我認為理解原因並不難，但是當我們在液化天然氣和國內銷售之間進行研究時，我很好奇。然後你談到了建立一個貿易組織，我很好奇這是否是本季度的積極貢獻？

Sure. Well, I think the story around natural gas is pretty well understood with respect to the tightness that we're seeing, and the majority of our sales of gas are contracted under long-term contracts. And -- so limited opportunities to make significant changes in the short term. I would say that we do have a very active trading program, and we continue to grow that. And our expectation is that we'll continue to grow that. And so I think that's going to play a bigger role as we go forward. But I don't think as you look at today's results, it's -- the value that you're seeing is basically being driven primarily by the base business.

當然。好吧，我認為就我們所看到的緊張程度而言，關於天然氣的故事已經很好理解了，而且我們的大部分天然氣銷售都是根據長期合同簽訂的。而且 - 在短期內做出重大改變的機會非常有限。我想說我們確實有一個非常活躍的交易計劃，並且我們會繼續發展它。我們的期望是我們將繼續增長。所以我認為隨著我們的前進，這將發揮更大的作用。但我不認為當你看到今天的結果時，你看到的價值基本上主要是由基礎業務驅動的。

Okay. And then any changes in terms of your LNG outlook, particular projects? I know there's been talk of bidding on some things in Asia Pac market or East Asia, maybe I should say, in terms of new facilities. Just curious if there's been movement there. You talked a little earlier about the outlook with P&G. But whether it's Middle East, Asia or Gulf Coast, just curious in terms of expansion.

好的。然後你的液化天然氣前景，特定項目有什麼變化嗎？我知道有人談論在亞太市場或東亞的一些事情上，也許我應該說，就新設施而言。只是好奇那裡有沒有動靜。你早些時候談到了寶潔的前景。但無論是中東、亞洲還是墨西哥灣沿岸，都只是對擴張感到好奇。

Yes. I would say there, nothing has changed per se. I think we have, as you know, a fairly broad portfolio of opportunities that we've been working, and we continue to work those. And if we can find those projects which deliver the kind of returns at the cost of supply that we think is needed to compete over a very broad range of future scenarios that we'll pursue those. That's kind of how we're thinking about it. And I would just say the work that we're doing in that space today is consistent with the work we've been doing for some time now. There are opportunities out there that we're evaluating, but they need to be competitive in the portfolio, and they need to be competitive long term across a very wide range of future scenarios.

是的。我會說，本身沒有任何改變。如您所知，我認為我們擁有相當廣泛的機會組合，我們一直在努力，我們將繼續努力。如果我們能找到那些以供應成本提供回報的項目，我們認為這些項目是在非常廣泛的未來情景中競爭所必需的，我們將追求這些。這就是我們正在考慮的方式。我只想說，我們今天在該領域所做的工作與我們一段時間以來所做的工作是一致的。我們正在評估一些機會，但它們需要在投資組合中具有競爭力，並且它們需要在非常廣泛的未來情景中具有長期競爭力。

And no change with the big projects that we're progressing. Obviously, we've got the Mozambique Coral floating LNG projects still expected start up towards the end of this year and continuing to progress the Golden Pass project.

我們正在進行的大型項目也沒有改變。顯然，我們預計莫桑比克珊瑚浮式液化天然氣項目仍有望在今年年底前啟動，並繼續推進 Golden Pass 項目。

Good luck, Stephen, on your retirement.

祝你好運，斯蒂芬，退休。

Thank you very much, Roger.

非常感謝你，羅傑。

I also like to thank all of you for your time and thoughtful questions this morning. I also like to thank you for the opportunity to work with you over the past couple of years. I look forward to introducing you to Jennifer.

我還要感謝大家今天早上的時間和深思熟慮的問題。我還要感謝您在過去幾年中與您合作的機會。我期待著把你介紹給詹妮弗。

So with that, I hope you enjoy the rest of your day, and thank you, and please stay safe.

因此，我希望您在接下來的日子裡過得愉快，謝謝您，請注意安全。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

That does conclude today's conference. We thank everyone again for their participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。我們再次感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。