埃克森美孚 (XOM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to ExxonMobil's fourth quarter, 2024 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded. We appreciate you joining us today.

大家早安。歡迎參加埃克森美孚 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。感謝您今天加入我們。

I'm Jim Chapman, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. I'm joined by Darren Woods, Chairman and CEO; and Kathy Mikells, Senior Vice President and CFO. This quarter's presentation and prerecorded remarks are available on the Investors section of our website. They're meant to accompany the third quarter earnings news release, which is posted in the same location.

我是吉姆‧查普曼 (Jim Chapman)，財務長與投資者關係副總裁。與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長 Darren Woods 和資深副總裁兼財務長 Kathy Mikells。本季的簡報和預先錄製的評論可在我們網站的「投資者」部分找到。它們旨在與發佈在同一位置的第三季收益新聞稿一起發布。

During today's presentation, we'll make forward-looking comments, including discussion of our long-term plans and integration efforts, which are still being developed and which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please read our cautionary statement on slide 2. You can find more information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements in our SEC filings on our website.

在今天的演講中，我們將發表前瞻性的評論，包括討論我們的長期計劃和整合工作，這些計劃和工作仍在製定中，並且存在風險和不確定性。請閱讀投影片 2 上的警告聲明。您可以在我們網站上的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件中找到有關任何前瞻性陳述的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

Note that we also provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are also posted on the website. And now I'll turn it over to Darren for opening remarks.

請注意，我們還在收益幻燈片的末尾提供了補充信息，這些信息也發佈在網站上。現在我將把時間交給達倫 (Darren) 來致開幕詞。

Good morning and thanks for joining us. I'll focus my comments this morning on ExxonMobil's 2024 results and the company we've become. In our prepared presentation available on our website, Kathy dives deeper into our results and long term growth outlook.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早上我的評論將重點放在埃克森美孚 2024 年的表現以及我們如今的公司形象。在我們網站上準備好的簡報中，凱西深入探討了我們的業績和長期成長前景。

What our 2024 performance makes clear, is that the transformed company we've built is delivering. We strengthened and further capitalize on our unique competitive advantages, technology, scale, integration, execution, excellence, of course, people. We demonstrated the strength of our consistent strategy. Now, in its eighth year of driving greater value for society and shareholders alike. We set and achieved ambitious objectives. When we say we'll do something, we deliver.

我們 2024 年的業績清楚地表明，我們所打造的轉型公司正在實現目標。我們加強並進一步利用我們獨特的競爭優勢、技術、規模、整合、執行、卓越，當然還有人才。我們展示了我們一貫戰略的力量。如今，公司已進入第八年，致力於為社會和股東創造更大的價值。我們制定並實現了雄心勃勃的目標。當我們說到做到時，我們就會做到。

And we expanded our unrivaled set of opportunities for profitable growth, both now and long into the future. The ultimate source of cash, distributions, and shareholder value is unchanging, investments in advantaged high return assets and projects. The proof of our transformation shows up in our performance.

我們擴大了無與倫比的獲利成長機會，無論是現在還是未來。現金、分配和股東價值的最終來源是不變的，即對有優勢的高回報資產和專案的投資。我們的轉變體現在我們的表現上。

Operationally, we delivered strong results across the board including safety, a bedrock commitment underpinning everything we do; reliability, where we achieved record performance in our product solutions, business; and emissions, where we've achieved a more than 60% reduction in methane intensity since 2016.

在營運方面，我們全面取得了強勁的業績，包括安全性（這是我們一切工作的基礎承諾）；可靠性（我們在產品解決方案和業務方面取得了創紀錄的業績）；以及排放（自 2016 年以來，我們的甲烷強度降低了 60% 以上）。

Financially, we demonstrated our steadily improving earnings power across a range of metrics. We delivered earnings of $34 billion in 2024, our third highest result in a decade, despite softer market conditions. For five years, we've grown earnings excluding identified items, a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 30%. We generated cash flow from operations of $55 billion, also our third highest in a decade to fund profitable growth, maintain our financial strength, and reward shareholders.

從財務角度來看，我們在一系列指標上展現了穩定提升的獲利能力。儘管市場環境疲軟，但我們在 2024 年實現了 340 億美元的收益，這是十年來的第三高業績。五年來，我們的收益（不包括已確定項目）成長了近 30% 的複合年增長率。我們產生的經營現金流達到 550 億美元，這也是十年來的第三高水平，用於支持獲利成長、維持財務實力並回報股東。

Excluding working capital, our free cash flow, more than covered shareholder distributions. And we delivered a return on capital employed of 13%. Over five years, our average return on capital employed is an industry leading 11%. When you set aside cash balances and capital and projects that are under construction and yet to start up, our 2024 ROCE rises to roughly 17%. It's a five year average of about 15%.

不包括營運資本，我們的自由現金流超過了股東分配。我們的資本回報率達到了 13%。五年來，我們的平均資本使用報酬率達到業界領先的 11%。當您留出現金餘額和資本以及正在建造但尚未啟動的項目時，我們的 2024 年 ROCE 將上升至約 17%。五年平均成長率約為 15%。

Our disciplined approach to investing continues to generate returns well above our cost of capital. Every part of our business contributed to our success. We built the best upstream portfolio in the industry. In 2024, we achieved the highest ever production from our advantaged assets and the highest liquids production from our overall portfolio in more than 40 years. In the Permian, we delivered record production from both our heritage ExxonMobil assets and our pioneer assets. Together, the two are even stronger.

我們嚴謹的投資方式持續產生遠高於資本成本的報酬。我們業務的每個部分都為我們的成功做出了貢獻。我們建立了業界最好的上游產品組合。2024年，我們的優勢資產產量達到了歷史最高水平，整體投資組合的液體產量也達到了40多年來的最高水平。在二疊紀盆地，我們利用埃克森美孚的傳統資產和先驅資產實現了創紀錄的產量。兩者結合起來，力量就更大了。

As we said last month, we now see an average of more than $3 billion per year of synergies from our combined assets with production growing from 1.5 million oil equivalent barrels per day at the end of 2024 to 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, a more than 50% increase. This growth will further strengthen US energy security and will do it with even better overall environmental performance.

正如我們上個月所說，我們現在看到，合併資產每年平均產生超過 30 億美元的協同效應，產量將從 2024 年底的每天 150 萬桶油當量增長到 2030 年的每天 230 萬桶，增幅超過 50%。這一成長將進一步加強美國的能源安全，並將帶來更好的整體環境表現。

In Guyana, we delivered record production from the world's premier deepwater development. We've gone from discovery to 650,000 barrels per day in just 10 years. The pace for deepwater projects, the world has rarely seen. The benefits are tremendous, not just profitable growth for ExxonMobil, but rapidly rising living standards for the Guyanese people. The GDP per capita more than tripling since we started production in 2020.

在圭亞那，我們在世界頂級深水開發項目中實現了創紀錄的產量。我們僅用 10 年就從發現石油發展到每天生產 65 萬桶石油。深水工程建設步伐之快，世界罕見。其好處是巨大的，不僅埃克森美孚的利潤增長，而且圭亞那人民的生活水平也迅速提高。自2020年投產以來，人均GDP增加了兩倍多。

Turning to product solutions, we further enhanced our already industry leading portfolio by divesting non-strategic assets and establishing the foundation for new world products that outperform existing alternatives. The advantage projects we brought online over time drove record sales of high value products. In 2024. Our ongoing shift to a more profitable product mix is a key driver of earnings improvement and product solutions. We also advanced our plans to develop and grow new businesses. Most notably our proximate resin systems and carbon materials with an estimated total addressable market of $100 billion by 2030.

在產品解決方案方面，我們透過剝離非策略性資產並為優於現有替代品的新產品奠定基礎，進一步增強了我們已經處於行業領先的產品組合。我們隨著時間的推移上線的優勢項目推動了高價值產品的創紀錄銷售。2024年。我們不斷轉向更有利可圖的產品組合，這是獲利改善和產品解決方案的關鍵驅動力。我們也推進了開發和發展新業務的計劃。最值得注意的是我們的近似樹脂系統和碳材料，預計到 2030 年總目標市場將達到 1,000 億美元。

Within low carbon solutions, we demonstrated strength and commercial interest through additional customer contracts and equity partnerships. We're the only company in the world today with an end-to-end system capable of capturing, transporting, and storing carbon emissions. At 6.7 million tons per year, we've contracted more CO2 for transport and storage than any other company by far. We're also well positioned to meet surging demand from data centers for low carbon power and [on a timetable that alternatives] such as nuclear simply can't match.

在低碳解決方案領域，我們透過額外的客戶合約和股權合作夥伴關係展示了實力和商業利益。我們是當今世界上唯一一家擁有能夠捕獲、運輸和儲存碳排放的端到端系統的公司。我們每年承包的二氧化碳運輸和儲存量為 670 萬噸，遠超過任何其他公司。我們也能夠滿足資料中心對低碳電力不斷增長的需求，並且[按照核能等替代能源無法比擬的時間表]。

On the hydrogen and lithium fronts, we announced new equity partnerships and offtake agreements that demonstrate the significant market interest these new businesses are generating. Our success in 2024 and every other year is due to our people. It's not just that we recruit the best but that we give them the most challenging assignments to build the best capability. It's our culture, our mindset. When this team takes the field, we expect to win.

在氫能和鋰能方面，我們宣布了新的股權合作夥伴關係和承購協議，這表明這些新業務正在引起巨大的市場興趣。我們 2024 年以及其他每一年的成功都歸功於我們的員工。我們不僅招募最優秀的人才，也給他們最具挑戰性的任務，培養最佳能力。這是我們的文化，我們的思考方式。當這支球隊上場時，我們期望獲勝。

That drive underpins our value creation in 2025 as well. We bring online a full slate of major projects to increase profitable volumes, make more profitable products, and lay the foundation for profitable new businesses. To name a few, will start up Yellowtail and Guyana, our fourth and largest development to date. In the Permian, we'll further improve resource recovery using our next generation cube design and patented lightweight profit. This is the right kind of growth, low cost of supply, low emissions intensity, and high returns.

這一動力也支撐著我們 2025 年的價值創造。我們上線了一系列重大項目，以增加盈利量、生產更多盈利產品並為盈利的新業務奠定基礎。舉幾個例子，我們將啟動 Yellowtail 和 Guyana 項目，這是我們迄今為止第四個也是最大的一個開發項目。在二疊紀，我們將利用下一代立方體設計和專利的輕量級利潤進一步提高資源回收率。這是正確的成長方式：供應成本低、排放強度低、回報高。

At our Singapore refining and chemical complex, our Resid Upgrade project, we use new-to-world technology to transform bottom of the barrel molecules into a new grade of high value lube base stocks. We'll transform high sulfur low-value export fuels into higher value diesel for the UK market at our expanded refinery at Fawley.

在我們的新加坡煉油和化工綜合體，我們的渣油升級項目中，我們使用全新技術將桶底分子轉化為新型高價值潤滑油基礎油。我們將在擴建的福利煉油廠將高硫低價值出口燃料轉化為供應英國市場的高價值柴油。

We will expand our capacity to produce higher value performance polyethylene and polypropylene at our petrochemical complex in China. And we'll add new advanced recycling facilities at Baytown to meet the growing demand for certified circular polymers which has the added benefit of keeping hundreds of millions of pounds of plastic waste from being burned or buried.

我們將擴大中國石化綜合設施的產能，生產性能更高價值的聚乙烯和聚丙烯。我們將在貝敦增加新的先進回收設施，以滿足對認證循環聚合物日益增長的需求，這還有一個額外的好處，那就是可以防止數億磅的塑膠垃圾被焚燒或掩埋。

Earlier this month, we sued the California Attorney General and activist groups for defamation and interference in our advanced recycling business. As our filing made clear, the suit is about abuse of the public trust and the hijacking of the legal system for financial and political gain. I want to emphasize that we don't take these actions lightly. Unfortunately, is another example of what it takes to defend our company and preserve the value we create for our customers, shareholders, and broader society.

本月初，我們起訴加州總檢察長和激進團體，指控他們誹謗並干涉我們的先進回收業務。正如我們的文件所明確指出的，該訴訟涉及濫用公眾信任和劫持法律系統以獲取經濟和政治利益。我想強調的是，我們不會輕易採取這些行動。不幸的是，這只是我們為捍衛公司和維護我們為客戶、股東和更廣泛的社會創造的價值所需付出努力的另一個例子。

Overall, the major projects we start up in 2025 will deliver more than $3 billion in earnings potential in 2026 at both constant and current prices and margins. And this earnings gain excludes the uplift from our Permian growth plans.

整體而言，我們在 2025 年啟動的重大專案將在 2026 年以不變價格和當前價格及利潤率計算帶來超過 30 億美元的獲利潛力。這項獲利成長還不包括我們二疊紀成長計畫帶來的收益。

As we showed at the corporate plan update, ExxonMobil’s runway of profitable growth extends along into the future. Our new technology driven businesses such as proximate products and carbon materials creates huge opportunities to expand beyond traditional fuels and chemicals into higher growth, higher margin markets that are decoupled from commodity price fluctuations.

正如我們在公司計畫更新中所展示的，埃克森美孚的獲利成長之路將延伸至未來。我們的新技術驅動型業務（例如近似產品和碳材料）創造了巨大的機會，可以從傳統燃料和化學品擴展到不受商品價格波動影響的更高成長、更高利潤的市場。

This year, we expect to start up a new facility that can produce 25,000 metric tons of proximate products and plan to grow to nearly 200,000 tons by 2030. We're committed to investing in these new businesses in a stepwise fashion, progresses in tandem with demonstrated success in the marketplace.

今年，我們預計將啟動一個可生產 25,000 公噸近似產品的新工廠，並計劃在 2030 年將增長到近 200,000 噸。我們致力於逐步投資這些新業務，並與市場上取得的成功同步發展。

The change in administrations in the US, I want to say a few words about the right policy framework for successful energy future. I'll begin by noting that through 2030, roughly 90% of our planned CapEx is allocated to established fully functioning markets for energy and products that require no policy support. Only about 10% is earmarked for nascent, lower emissions markets where market forces have yet to fully take hold.

美國政府的更迭，我想就成功的能源未來所需的正確政策框架談幾句。首先我要指出的是，到 2030 年，我們計劃的資本支出中約有 90% 將分配給不需要政策支持的、功能齊全的能源和產品市場。只有約 10% 被指定用於新興的低排放市場，這些市場的力量尚未完全發揮作用。

The case-in-point is our Baytown low carbon hydrogen project which requires incentives under Section 45V of the Inflation Reduction Act to be economically viable. We believe these incentives are critical to establishing a fully market based future where hydrogen competes head-to-head with traditional fuels. But the end goal is clear, a system where no energy source remains dependent on government subsidies. Just as energy sources should not be supported by governments in perpetuity, they should not be artificially discouraged either.

我們的例子是貝敦低碳氫化合物項目，該項目需要根據《通貨膨脹削減法》第 45V 條的激勵措施才能具有經濟可行性。我們相信，這些激勵措施對於建立完全以市場為基礎的未來至關重要，在這個未來中，氫氣將與傳統燃料展開正面競爭。但最終目標是明確的，即建立一個不再依賴政府補貼的能源體系。正如政府不應該永遠支持能源一樣，也不應人為地抑制能源的發展。

The prior administration's moratorium on new LNG export facilities and its executive order limiting offshore drilling or policy mistakes that the new administration is right to reverse. Oil and natural gas remain essential to economic growth, jobs, and national security both for ourselves and our allies around the globe. Over the longer term to achieve broad decarbonization, government policy should set carbon intensity standards on products. We believe this is the best way to engage the collective efforts of industry and leverage competitive market forces.

前政府對新的液化天然氣出口設施的禁令以及限制海上鑽井的行政命令或政策錯誤，新政府有權予以扭轉。石油和天然氣對於我們自己以及全球盟友的經濟成長、就業和國家安全仍然至關重要。從長遠來看，為了實現廣泛的脫碳，政府政策應該對產品設定碳強度標準。我們相信這是調動產業集體努力和利用競爭性市場力量的最佳方式。

To drive further innovation, reduce the most emissions at the lowest cost, policies must remain technology agnostic. Government should not pick winners and losers. Intensity standards establish a level playing field and have a strong precedent. They are most recently used to successfully and affordably reduce sulfur and marine fuel.

為了推動進一步創新，以最低的成本減少最多的排放，政策必須保持技術不可知性。政府不應該選擇贏家和輸家。強度標準建立了公平的競爭環境，並具有強有力的先例。它們最近被成功且經濟地用於減少硫和船用燃料。

In closing, I want to say again, how proud I am of the people of ExxonMobil and how pleased I am that we are creating unmatched value for our shareholders. Compared to the IOCs, over the last five years, we've grown cash flow from operations at a roughly 15% compounded annual growth rate, more than double the closest competitor. We've distributed more than $125 billion in dividends and buybacks, $30 billion more than the closest competitor. And we delivered a total shareholder return compounded annual growth of 14%, 600 basis points higher than the closest competitor.

最後，我想再次說，我為埃克森美孚的員工感到多麼自豪，我為我們為股東創造無與倫比的價值感到多麼高興。與國際石油公司相比，過去五年來，我們的營運現金流年複合成長率約為 15%，是最接近的競爭對手的兩倍多。我們已發放超過 1,250 億美元的股利和回購股票，比最接近的競爭對手多出 300 億美元。我們實現了股東總回報的年複合成長率 14%，比最接近的競爭對手高出 600 個基點。

Looking ahead the value creation arc of the company is equally distinguished. We're going to build an even more advantaged asset portfolio, 60% of our upstream production from advantage assets by 2030. That's nearly the same amount as the next largest IOCs total production. We're going to develop an even more profitable product mix with 80% growth of high value product sales and product solutions by 2030.

展望未來，公司的價值創造弧線同樣出色。我們將建構更具優勢的資產組合，到2030年，60%的上游產量將來自優勢資產。這幾乎與排名第二的國際石油公司的總產量相同。到 2030 年，我們將開發更具獲利能力的產品組合，高價值產品銷售額和產品解決方案將成長 80%。

We're going to be an even more efficient operator taking an additional $6 billion in cost out of the business. We're going to generate even more earnings in cash. On a constant price and margin basis, we're confident we'll deliver [20-30] by 2030, $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash flow, all of which enables us to keep our commitment to sustainable competitive and growing shareholder returns.

我們將成為一個更有效率的營運商，從而額外節省 60 億美元的業務成本。我們將創造更多的現金收益。在價格和利潤率不變的基礎上，我們有信心到 2030 年實現 [20-30]% 的盈利和 300 億美元的現金流，所有這些都使我們能夠履行對可持續競爭力和不斷增長的股東回報的承諾。

With that, I look forward to your questions.

我期待您的提問。

Thank you, Darren. Now let's move to our Q&A session. As a reminder, we ask each participant to keep it to just one question. And with that operator will ask you to please open the line for the first question.

謝謝你，達倫。現在讓我們進入問答環節。提醒一下，我們要求每個參與者只問一個問題。然後接線員會請您接通電話以回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Thank you, Darren, good rundown there. The question I had was really around project start-ups and specifically, Guyana. Can you give us a sense of the key milestones you're watching for in '25 at this asset? How it continues to track relative to expectations? And there's been a lot of investor debate following the upstream day about what the long-term capacity of this asset could look like. So any thoughts on terminal plateau would be great.

謝謝你，達倫，你的概述很精彩。我的問題實際上是關於專案啟動，特別是圭亞那。您能否向我們介紹一下您在 25 年所關注的這項資產的關鍵里程碑？它如何繼續追蹤預期？上游交易日之後，投資者對這項資產的長期產能進行了大量的爭論。因此，任何有關終端平台的想法都是很好的。

Yeah, Neil, thanks for the question. I'd say, as you look across the portfolio of projects that we've got slated for start-up in 2025. We feel really good about where they all are. The fact that they're tracking consistent with what we've talked about publicly. And in fact, my guess is that many of them will come in slightly ahead of that.

是的，尼爾，謝謝你的提問。我想說，當你回顧我們計劃在 2025 年啟動的專案組合時。我們對他們現在的處境感到非常滿意。事實上，他們所追蹤的情況與我們公開談論的情況一致。事實上，我猜測其中許多企業的表現會略微領先於此。

With respect to Yellowtail specifically, I'd say we really like what we're seeing there. I think that team who is managing the Guyana development continues to demonstrate project after project that you just find new ways to innovate and to overcome the challenges and to deliver these things below budget oftentimes and certainly ahead of schedule. My guess will be for Yellowtail that will come in a little better than what we've publicly talked about. But 3Q '25 is a good number, a good date to be thinking about.

具體來說，就黃尾魚而言，我想說我們真的很喜歡在那裡看到的東西。我認為，管理圭亞那開發的團隊透過一個又一個專案不斷證明，他們能夠找到創新的新方法，克服挑戰，並且經常以低於預算甚至提前完成任務。我猜 Yellowtail 的表現會比我們公開談論的更好。但 25 年第三季是一個好數字，是一個值得思考的好日子。

Longer term, I know -- I've been part of the conversation in December about what we project going forward in the capacity versus utilization. All I would say is that that's a challenging to project that far in the future. There's a lot of variables that go into the developments across all of our upstream portfolios. We're going to move from where we're at today of roughly 10 reservoirs to roughly 40 by 2030. A lot of optimization that goes around that, managing those reservoirs, a lot of unknowns.

從長遠來看，我知道——我參與了 12 月關於我們對未來產能與利用率的預測的討論。我想說的是，預測那麼遠的未來是個挑戰。我們所有上游投資組合的發展都涉及許多變數。到 2030 年，我們的水庫數量將從目前的約 10 個增加到約 40 個。圍繞這一點進行了大量優化，管理這些水庫，還有很多未知數。

Obviously, there's a depletion curve that continues to bring volumes down. But at the same time, our teams are working hard on infills and keeping the utilization up. And so we've given our best guess or estimate as to where we'll be, but I would tell you that, Neil, myself, all of us frankly, including the team who's managing it, our challenge themselves to make sure that we're fully utilizing those assets.

顯然，存在一條不斷降低產量的消耗曲線。但與此同時，我們的團隊正在努力填補空缺並保持較高的利用率。因此，我們已經給出了關於未來發展方向的最佳猜測或估計，但我要告訴你，尼爾、我自己，坦白說，我們所有人，包括管理它的團隊，都在挑戰自己，以確保我們充分利用這些資產。

And my expectation is as we've demonstrated over the last several years, we'll probably do better than what we're estimating. But I think I want to make sure that we're not overpromising and under-delivering. And so we've got, I think, a really sound forecast for where those units will be producing. And again, we're challenging the team and they're challenging themselves to deliver more than that. And if I was a betting person, which I am, I would bet they'll do it.

我的期望是，正如我們在過去幾年中所展示的那樣，我們可能會做得比我們估計的更好。但我想確保我們不會承諾過多而兌現不足。因此，我認為，我們對這些單位的生產地點做出了非常合理的預測。再次，我們向團隊提出挑戰，他們也挑戰自己，以實現更高的目標。如果我是一個愛賭的人，我敢打賭他們會這麼做。

Thank you, Darren.

謝謝你，達倫。

You bet.

當然。

John Royall, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping for an update on your expectations around North American tariffs, assuming those are implemented and assuming they're in place for a material amount of time. You have upstream and downstream assets in Canada, but also downstream assets in the US that could be impacted. So how should we think about what that could mean for ExxonMobil overall?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我希望了解您對北美關稅的預期，假設這些關稅已經實施，並假設它們在相當長的時間內有效。您在加拿大擁有上游和下游資產，但美國的下游資產也可能受到影響。那麼我們該如何看待這對埃克森美孚整體意味著什麼？

Good morning, John, thanks for the question. I'll tell you the way that we're looking at -- obviously, there's a lot of noise and speculation in this space. And I would put it in the same category as we think about prices and where prices are going. At the end of the day, what we can control is our -- how effective and efficient we are as operators, making sure that we're producing highest value products for the kit that we have and efficiently getting it to market.

早安，約翰，謝謝你的提問。我會告訴你我們正在觀察的方式——顯然，這個領域有很多噪音和猜測。我會把它和我們考慮價格以及價格走向歸為同一類。歸根究底，我們能夠控制的是——我們作為營運商的效率和效益，確保我們為現有的套件生產出最高價值的產品，並有效率地將其推向市場。

And I think that's going to -- at the end of the day, no matter where the market moves, there's a cost of supply curve all the work we've been doing over the last eight years has been to drive our production to the low end of the cost of supply curve so that we have a significant margin versus the last marginal barrel of production that's required to meet the market demand. None of that's going to change with tariffs.

我認為，無論市場如何變動，最終都會有一個供應成本曲線，過去八年我們一直在努力將產量推向供應成本曲線的低端，這樣，與滿足市場需求所需的最後一桶邊際產量相比，我們就能獲得可觀的利潤。這一切都不會因關稅而改變。

That's all going to get shifted around. And our view is we're going to continue to be a very cost competitive, low-cost of supply source, and therefore, we'll continue to outperform competition. And that's basically how we're looking at it as kind of wade through the noise that's out there in the media and the press with respect to all the speculation around policy.

這一切都將改變。我們的觀點是，我們將繼續成為一個極具成本競爭力、低成本的供應源，因此，我們將繼續超越競爭對手。這基本上就是我們看待這個問題的方式，就像是在撥開媒體和新聞界關於政策的所有猜測的迷霧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You Bet.

當然。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

Good morning. I wanted to ask about your data center strategy or enabling the expansion of AI in the US. Carbon capture, CCS value chain is a key senior advantage for Exxon. Are you seeing any interest in the market for the low-carbon gas solutions versus just traditional gas power plants? How do you think Exxon can bring these solutions to the market? And just given the recent news with DeepSeek, are you seeing any change in tone from your conversation with the end customers?

早安.我想詢問一下你們的資料中心策略或如何推動人工智慧在美國的擴張。碳捕獲、CCS價值鍊是埃克森美孚的關鍵高階優勢。與傳統的燃氣發電廠相比，您是否看到市場對低碳燃氣解決方案感興趣？您認為埃克森美孚如何將這些解決方案推向市場？鑑於最近有關 DeepSeek 的新聞，您是否發現與最終客戶的對話語氣有任何變化？

Yeah, good morning, Betty, thanks for the question. Yeah, I think you hit on really what is the nexus of our strategy with respect to data centers, which is offering decarbonized power for data centers. We're not interested, as we mentioned in December going into a utility business like power generation, utility returns for power generation would not compete in our portfolio, but leveraging the end-to-end system that we have for capturing transporting and storing CO2 is a huge advantage and brings a lot of value for those who are looking to have decarbonized power and to manage their emissions.

是的，早上好，貝蒂，謝謝你的提問。是的，我認為你確實觸及了我們資料中心策略的核心，即為資料中心提供脫碳電力。正如我們在 12 月提到的那樣，我們對進入發電等公用事業業務不感興趣，發電的公用事業回報不會在我們的投資組合中競爭，但利用我們用於捕獲、運輸和儲存二氧化碳的端到端系統是一個巨大的優勢，並為那些希望擁有脫碳電力並管理其排放的人帶來很多價值。

And I would say that there continues to be a very strong desire for many of these customers to build data centers that are decarbonized. And so a lot of interest in that space. We're having a lot of continuing conversations. We have sites that have been selected. We've got -- we've been doing the work to decarbonize our natural gas, which would be an important feed in a low-carbon data center. And of course, we've got the work we've been doing with our partners around carbon capture and storage, and we've got the green line.

我想說的是，許多客戶仍然強烈希望建立脫碳資料中心。因此人們對該領域很感興趣。我們正在進行許多持續的對話。我們已經選定了一些站點。我們一直在努力使天然氣脫碳，這將成為低碳資料中心的重要能源。當然，我們與合作夥伴在碳捕獲和儲存方面開展了工作，並且制定了綠線。

And so we've got all the pieces. Today, we've been in early engineering for these centers, so we know exactly what it's going to take. We've got a very, as you know, a large and successful project organization. This is right in their wheelhouse. And so we're acting as a bit of an integrator in the early days to accelerate the schedules, which is really important to many of the customers.

這樣我們就得到了所有的碎片。今天，我們已經開始為這些中心進行早期工程設計，因此我們確切地知道需要做什麼。如您所知，我們有一個非常龐大且成功的專案組織。這完全符合他們的職責範圍。因此，我們在早期扮演著整合商的角色來加快進度，這對許多客戶來說非常重要。

Our view is we'll bring this on faster than anybody else in the industry, and we'll certainly bring it on faster than any other opportunities for decarbonization. My guess would be, depending on how the discussions go with customers that we could get a site up and going by 2028 and then have it decarbonized into 2029. I would say it's rough order of how to think about that.

我們的觀點是，我們將比業內任何其他人更快地實現這一目標，而且我們肯定會比任何其他脫碳機會更快地實現這一目標。我的猜測是，根據與客戶的討論進展情況，我們可以在 2028 年之前建立一個站點並運行，然後在 2029 年實現脫碳。我想說的是，這是思考這個問題的大致順序。

But we've -- we're well into the development phase. Obviously, a lot of dynamics here, a lot of moving parts and variables in large part on the customer side. So we are available. We want to make sure that we've got an offering that meets their needs and when they're ready for them, we'll be ready.

但我們已經進入了開發階段。顯然，這裡有很多動態，很多活動部件和變量，很大程度上是在客戶方面。所以我們可以。我們希望確保我們提供的服務能夠滿足他們的需求，並且當他們做好準備時，我們也會做好準備。

With respect to DeepSeek, I would say that hasn't impacted the conversations to date that we're having with our customers.

關於 DeepSeek，我想說的是，它並沒有影響我們與客戶之間的對話。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Devin McDermott。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So I wanted to come back to Neal's earlier question on growth. There's a lot in the queue in the near term beyond just Guyana. You highlighted 10 start-ups with over $3 billion of earnings, earnings that also hold the current margins, and I appreciate that guidance.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。所以我想回到尼爾之前關於成長的問題。除了圭亞那以外，近期還有很多其他項目需要參與。您重點介紹了 10 家盈利超過 30 億美元的新創公司，這些公司的盈利也保持著當前的利潤率，我很欣賞這一指導。

But I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail on the timing for some of the key projects in that growth as we move through 2025? How they impact earnings through the year? And then when you expect to get to that full over $3 billion run rate? Thanks.

但我想知道，您是否可以提供一些有關 2025 年期間一些關鍵增長項目的時間表的更多細節？它們如何影響全年收益？那麼，您預計什麼時候才能達到超過 30 億美元的運行率？謝謝。

Yeah. Sure. Devin, thanks for the question. I think you're right, it's going to be a busy year with a lot of startups. I may just kind of walk through the key project that we've been talking with you all about, and start with the China Chemical Complex. We mechanically completed that at the end of last year. We've been going through startup sequencing and making sure that each piece of that kit is working as designed, and we'll bring all that integrated together, and my expectation is we'll get it started up here sometime in the first quarter, back into the first quarter.

是的。當然。德文，謝謝你的提問。我認為你是對的，今年將會是個繁忙的一年，有很多新創公司。我可能只是簡單介紹一下我們一直在與大家討論的重點項目，先從中國化工綜合體開始。我們在去年年底就機械地完成了這項任務。我們一直在進行啟動排序，確保套件的每個部分都按設計運行，然後我們將把所有這些整合在一起，我的預期是，我們將在第一季的某個時候啟動它，回到第一季。

In [Fawley], we're building a conversion facility to produce low-sulfur diesel. My expectation is we'll have that in early second quarter. We've got two advanced recycling units that we are building at Baytown, so despite the Attorney General's accusations that these are myths, we've actually got two more units starting up, one in the second quarter and one in the fourth quarter, which continues to see a lot of interest by consumers for recycled product, and so that capacity is desperately needed to meet that customer demand.

在[福利]，我們正在建造一個轉化設施來生產低硫柴油。我預計我們會在第二季初實現這一目標。我們在貝敦市建造了兩個先進的回收裝置，儘管司法部長指責這些都是無稽之談，但實際上我們已經啟動了另外兩個回收裝置，一個在第二季度，一個在第四季度，消費者對回收產品的興趣持續高漲，因此迫切需要增加產能來滿足客戶的需求。

We've got all the modules that we need for the Strathcona Renewable Diesel, looking to basically try to get that started up here in the second quarter, expect that to happen. The other real big project that we've got is the Singapore Resit Upgrade Project. That is new-to-the-world technology. Feel really good about the progress we've made there. We've got all the vessels loaded with catalyst. Some of that catalyst is proprietary.

我們已經擁有 Strathcona 再生柴油所需的所有模組，希望在第二季度啟動它，預計這將會實現。我們的另一個真正大的項目是新加坡 Resit 升級項目。這是一項世界聞名的技術。對我們在那裡取得的進展感到非常高興。我們已經將所有容器裝滿了催化劑。其中一些催化劑是專有的。

The largest catalyst load we've ever done, and we did that successfully, and expect to be mechanically complete sometime here in the first quarter and get into the start-up and sequencing and expect to be up and running kind of the back end of the second quarter, I would hope.

這是我們迄今為止完成的最大規模的催化劑負載，我們成功地完成了這一任務，並預計將在第一季度的某個時候完成機械操作，然後進入啟動和排序階段，並有望在第二季度末啟動並運行，我希望如此。

Proxima, second quarter, is when we expect to get some more capacity on, and then going forward in time, a lot more capacity coming on as we continue to work with customers and sell into what we think is some very attractive applications where there's really good demand, so continue to see good progress there, and that project is coming along.

Proxima，在第二季度，我們預計會獲得更多的產能，然後隨著時間的推移，隨著我們繼續與客戶合作並銷售我們認為非常有吸引力的應用，我們將獲得更多的產能，因為這些應用確實有很好的需求，因此我們會繼續看到良好的進展，而且該專案正在進行中。

Bacalhau, I expect sometime in 2025, probably closer to the third quarter. Yellowtail, third quarter, and then, as we've said with Golden Pass, probably the back end of 2025, expect to see first LNG and mechanically complete kind of around mid-year is the time frame that we run through all of those.

我預計 Bacalhau 會在 2025 年的某個時候出現，可能接近第三季。Yellowtail，第三季度，然後，正如我們在 Golden Pass 中所說的那樣，可能是在 2025 年的後期，預計將看到第一批液化天然氣，並且機械完成的時間大約是年中，這是我們完成所有這些的時間範圍。

And then, as we mentioned, on a constant price basis, which we provide for you guys to kind of see the underlying fundamentals of these projects, expect to see more than $3 billion of improved earnings once they're up and running full, which we're considering in 2026.

然後，正如我們所提到的，在不變價格的基礎上，我們為你們提供了這些項目的基本面信息，預計一旦這些項目全面投入運行，收益將增加 30 多億美元，我們正在考慮在 2026 年實現這一目標。

And at the same time, you look at the current price margin environment that we're in, which is obviously pretty challenging. We're still, as you rack up all those projects, still about $3 billion of earnings contributions. And that, frankly, the goal is to make sure that these projects are resilient to the bottom of the cycle conditions, so feel pretty good about that portfolio of projects and where we are.

同時，看看我們目前所處的價格利潤環境，這顯然相當具有挑戰性。當我們把所有這些項目累積起來時，我們仍然有大約 30 億美元的收益貢獻。坦白說，我們的目標是確保這些項目能夠抵禦週期底部的條件，因此我們對這些項目組合以及我們所處的狀況感到非常滿意。

Great. Thanks for all the detail.

偉大的。感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Hi, everybody. Thank you for having my questions. Thanks for all the details, Darren. I think you missed out your 25% of (inaudible) in your startup list, but who's counting? My question specifically is about -- I hate to be predictable -- it's about your cash distribution philosophy, buybacks versus dividends. And I want to kind of position it like this.

大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。謝謝你提供的所有詳細信息，達倫。我認為您在創業清單中遺漏了 25% 的（聽不清楚），但誰在乎呢？我的問題具體是關於——我不想被預測——這是關於你的現金分配理念，回購與股息。我想將它定位成這樣。

If I look at buybacks last year and the $20 billion commitment for the next two years, you could make a case that you're basically buying back the shares that you issued for Pioneer. And I know it's not as cut and dried as that, but I'm curious, with the inflection in free cash flow that you clearly have, your capacity for dividend growth is substantially greater than the 4% bump that you gave to shareholders now for several years running. Are you waiting to buy in the Pioneer stock before you step up that dividend, is my question.

如果我看去年的回購和未來兩年 200 億美元的承諾，你可以證明你基本上是在回購為先鋒發行的股票。我知道事情並沒有那麼簡單，但我很好奇，鑑於你們自由現金流的明顯變化，你們的股息成長能力遠高於你們連續幾年給予股東的 4% 的成長。我的問題是，您是否在等待購買先鋒股票，然後再增加股息。

And so that's really, Doug, a coincidence, right, that we moved up our buyback pace in conjunction with Pioneer, obviously because Pioneer was giving us incremental cash flow to be able to do that. So that moved up our pace from $17.5 billion to $20 billion annually, and we've guided that we expect to be at that pace for this year and next year, assuming, you know, continued reasonable market conditions.

所以，道格，這真的是一個巧合，對吧，我們與先鋒公司一起加快了回購步伐，顯然是因為先鋒公司為我們提供了增量現金流，使我們能夠做到這一點。因此，我們的投資速度從每年 175 億美元提高到了 200 億美元，我們預計今年和明年的投資速度將保持這一水平，前提是市場狀況繼續保持合理。

But it is, I would say, just a coincidence that that $20 billion pace means that we'll essentially buy back the shares from Pioneer over a three year period. If we go to look at our philosophy overall in terms of the dividend, we have been clear that we look at that dividend and we want it to be sustainable. We want it to be competitive and we want it to be growing. And we are always looking at it through that lens.

但我想說，這只是一個巧合，200 億美元的速度意味著我們將在三年內從先鋒公司回購股票。如果我們從股息的角度來審視我們的整體理念，我們很清楚，我們關注的是股息，我們希望它是可持續的。我們希望它具有競爭力並且不斷發展。我們總是透過這個視角來看它。

The share buyback program as a secondary benefit actually reduces the overall dividend in absolute terms as we continue to take shares out of the market. But that's how we look at the dividend philosophy. And as you know, we've increased the annual dividend for 42 years running, which is a claim only 4% of companies in the S&P 500 can make.

股票回購計畫作為次要福利，實際上在我們繼續從市場上撤出股票時，從絕對值上減少了整體股利。但這就是我們看待股利哲學的方式。眾所周知，我們已經連續 42 年增加年度股息，而標準普爾 500 指數中只有 4% 的公司能夠做到這一點。

And so we're very focused on and understand the importance of that dividend for our shareholders. And we also realize compared to other companies, we have a quite large retail shareholder base that are very focused on the dividend. And so that's how we look at and evaluate things.

因此，我們非常關注並了解股利對股東的重要性。我們也意識到，與其他公司相比，我們擁有相當龐大的散戶股東群體，他們非常關注股息。這就是我們看待和評價事物的方式。

I appreciate the answer. I would just footnote that dividend growth per share seems to be the driver or at least the mechanism for market recognition of value. So that's why we came in this issue. But I appreciate the answers. Thanks so much.

我很感謝你的回答。我只想補充一點，每股股息成長似乎是市場認可價值的驅動力，或至少是機制。這就是我們討論這個問題的原因。但我很感謝大家的回答。非常感謝。

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，道格。

Stephen Richardson, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬理查森 (Stephen Richardson)，Evercore ISI。

Hi, good morning. I was wondering, Darren, now that we've had a little bit of time to sit with the corporate plan update and all the visibility you provided out till 2030, and maybe this is a beyond 2025 question, but it seems to us that internal to Exxon, the biggest risk to hitting that return on capital employed target seems to be on the CapEx line.

嗨，早安。達倫，我想知道，現在我們有一點時間來討論公司計劃更新和您提供的所有到 2030 年的可見性，也許這是一個 2025 年以後的問題，但在我們看來，在埃克森美孚內部，實現資本使用回報率目標的最大風險似乎在資本支出線上。

And so I was wondering if you could kind of talk about the forward look on CapEx upside downside risks, any proportion that you think is market indexed versus contractual. And it would just seem to us like a lot of the things you're doing the next couple of years are replication of things that you've already executed in the last number of years. You know, Guyana, Permian, those types of things. Thanks.

因此，我想知道您是否可以談談對資本支出上行下行風險的前瞻性看法，以及您認為與市場掛鉤的比例與合約掛鉤的比例。在我們看來，未來幾年您所做的許多事情都是過去幾年已經做過的事情的重複。你知道，圭亞那、二疊紀，諸如此類的東西。謝謝。

Yeah, thank you, Steve. Appreciate the question. As we talked about as part of the corporate plan presentation in December, if you look at the CapEx profile, a large portion of it is kind of dealing with, as you say, the things that we've already demonstrated we know how to do.

是的，謝謝你，史蒂夫。感謝你的提問。正如我們在 12 月的公司計畫演示中談到的那樣，如果你看一下資本支出概況，你會發現其中很大一部分是在處理我們已經證明我們知道如何去做的事情。

And frankly, the CapEx that we're spending in that space is fairly flat as we continue to grow volumes in the cash flow and earnings that go with it. So as we're advancing, I'd say the upgrade of our existing portfolio to advantaged volumes, we're doing that with a fairly stable and flat CapEx profile, which we feel really good about.

坦白說，隨著現金流和收益的持續增長，我們在該領域的資本支出相當平穩。因此，隨著我們的進步，我想說，我們將現有的投資組合升級到優勢規模，我們正在以相當穩定和平坦的資本支出狀況來做到這一點，我們對此感到非常滿意。

And that reflects the continued efficiency that we're finding as we apply technologies. And my expectation is as we go forward, we're learning a ton. Even as we bring in new technology and begin to apply it, we're learning on that technology and finding additional opportunities. So I think we're on a really good trajectory with respect to continuing to grow advantaged volumes and continuing to drive capital efficiency.

這反映了我們在應用技術時發現的持續效率。我的期望是，隨著我們不斷前進，我們會學到很多東西。即使我們引入新技術並開始應用它，我們也在學習該技術並尋找更多機會。因此，我認為我們在繼續增加優勢產量和繼續提高資本效率方面正處於良好的軌道上。

And so we've laid out our best estimate now. But again, what I would say is I really like what we're finding as we deploy these technologies and see the improvements. And then on top of that, we've got the lower emissions spend that we've laid out and the new products that we're looking to, new markets, new businesses that we're looking to establish with Proxima Resin System and the Carbon Material Ventures, which, again, we see really, really high levels of interest from customers. We're continuing with working with them in trials and testing out the product. We feel good about what we're seeing there.

我們現在給出了最佳估計。但我想說的是，我真的很喜歡我們在部署這些技術時發現的結果以及看到的改進。除此之外，我們還制定了降低排放的支出計劃，並計劃與 Proxima Resin System 和 Carbon Material Ventures 合作開發新產品、開拓新市場、開展新業務，我們再次看到客戶對此表現出非常高的興趣。我們將繼續與他們合作進行試驗和測試產品。我們對所見所聞感到十分高興。

Those investments, which is really the growth that you're seeing with our capital spend, are all conditioned on making sure that those products, the value proposition that we believe we have there, is realized and compensated and generate high returns for those investments.

這些投資，也就是我們資本支出的成長，都取決於確保這些產品、我們認為我們擁有的價值主張能夠實現和補償，並為這些投資帶來高回報。

So I'd say those are less -- those are contingent. We feel today pretty confident that we will pursue those investments because of what we're seeing today. But we're not going to go ahead with them until we're convinced that the value is there and we'll realize that value and the investments and generate an advantage return. So that's how we're thinking about it.

所以我想說這些都不太重要──這些都是偶然的。根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們今天非常有信心進行這些投資。但在我們確信存在價值並且能夠實現該價值和投資並產生優勢回報之前，我們不會繼續進行這些投資。這就是我們的想法。

Similar with the low carbon, we've said before where we need policy support, that policy needs to be in place, and we need to have customers who are signing up for the offtakes, and that work continues. And so there's -- I'd say on top of the steady base that we've established here in 2024, all the additional CapEx will basically be conditioned on ensuring that we get good returns on that incremental investment in these new businesses and new opportunities.

與低碳類似，我們之前說過，我們需要政策支持，政策需要到位，我們需要有客戶簽約承購，這項工作還要繼續。因此，我想說，除了我們在 2024 年建立的穩定基礎之外，所有額外的資本支出基本上都將以確保我們在這些新業務和新機會的增量投資中獲得良好的回報為條件。

Anything to add, Kathryn?

還有什麼要補充的嗎，凱瑟琳？

So the other thing I would just say is we have a huge competitive advantage in our global projects organization. So you're talking about, hey, one of the things as we look out and we think about continuing to improve your return on capital employed and the new projects that are coming online, that gives us great confidence.

我想說的另一件事是，我們的全球專案組織擁有巨大的競爭優勢。所以你說的是，嘿，當我們專注並考慮繼續提高你的資本使用回報率和即將上線的新項目時，這給了我們很大的信心。

And the fact that they continue, especially in our base business, to figure out how to get more and more efficient. So Guyana would be a great example of that, right? We get more and more learnings in terms of looking at those reservoirs and exactly what the kit is that we need in order to optimize production, I think is a significant advantage for us.

事實上，他們仍在繼續研究如何提高效率，尤其是在我們的基礎業務方面。那麼圭亞那就是一個很好的例子，對嗎？我們在觀察這些油藏以及優化生產所需的工具方面獲得了越來越多的了解，我認為這對我們來說是一個顯著的優勢。

If you look at the biggest risks, I mean, what you spend in bringing a project online definitely has some risk associated with it. And again, I think we have a competitive advantage there. What you get out of the ground, right, understanding that I think is really critical. And the Permian would be a great example of that.

如果你看看最大的風險，我的意思是，你在將專案上線時所花費的資金肯定會帶來一些風險。而且我認為我們在這方面具有競爭優勢。我認為，理解你從地面上得到了什麼，這一點非常重要。二疊紀就是一個很好的例子。

The synergies we're driving in Pioneer as we look at recovery rates, as we look at implementing new technology, like a different approach to profit, I think those all give us really significant confidence in our ability to continue to improve overall capital return.

當我們考慮回收率、考慮實施新技術以及不同的獲利方式時，我們在先鋒公司推動的協同效應，我認為這些都讓我們對我們繼續提高整體資本回報率的能力充滿信心。

We have an advantaged set of projects. It puts us in a very differentiated position relative to other competitors.

我們擁有一套優勢項目。這使我們相對於其他競爭對手處於非常不同的地位。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

Hi, good morning. You have two major LNG projects coming online and are a major seller of LNG already. You've also signed some contracts to buy LNG from third parties that may now, kind of with the LNG permit ban being lifted, have a better chance of coming online later in the decade. Can you give more color on your LNG contracting strategy from here and how you see the LNG market in the medium term, oversupplied or not?

嗨，早安。貴公司有兩個主要的液化天然氣項目正在上線，並且已經成為液化天然氣的主要銷售商。您還簽署了一些從第三方購買液化天然氣的合同，隨著液化天然氣許可證禁令的解除，這些合約可能在未來十年內有更好的機會上線。您能否進一步闡述您的液化天然氣承包策略，以及您如何看待中期液化天然氣市場（是否供應過剩）？

Sure, thanks for the question. So I think as a general context, I'd say as you look forward, we continue to see a really healthy demand and important role for LNG around the world as we go out into the future and you see economies grow and people's standards of living improve. And as countries around the world look to decarbonize and back out, coal LNG is going to play a really important role.

當然，謝謝你的提問。因此，我認為，從總體上看，展望未來，我們將繼續看到全球對液化天然氣的真正健康需求和重要作用，隨著經濟的增長和人民生活水平的提高。隨著世界各國尋求脫碳並退出，煤炭液化天然氣將發揮真正重要的作用。

So that broader theme we see continuing to play out well into the 2050 timeframe. So we think LNG is going to be an important product and continuing to find ways to bring on advantage supply of LNG is pretty critical to our strategy.

因此，我們看到這個更廣泛的主題將在 2050 年的時間範圍內繼續發揮作用。因此，我們認為液化天然氣將成為一種重要產品，繼續尋找方法來實現液化天然氣的優勢供應對我們的策略至關重要。

As you know, the market today in these projects are underpinned by long-term sales contracts. We continue to progress those contracts in conjunction with the projects that we're developing. That continues to be the foundation for the LNG market. And so a majority of the production that we are looking to bring online will be underpinned by long-term contracts, which are linked to crude pricing.

如您所知，目前這些項目的市場以長期銷售合約為基礎。我們將繼續結合我們正在開發的項目來推進這些合約。這仍然是液化天然氣市場的基礎。因此，我們希望實現的大部分生產都將以與原油價格掛鉤的長期合約為基礎。

And that, I think, reflects really the demand that you're seeing from customers out there and the need for continued gas. There's a portion that we're leaving uncontracted to support the work that we're doing with our trading organization and growing that business. And as that market grows, becomes more liquid, we continue to see opportunities to optimize around that market and extract some additional value through trading. And so we're making sure that we've got volume available for that.

我認為這確實反映了客戶的需求以及對持續天然氣的需求。有一部分我們未簽訂合同，以支持我們與貿易組織開展的工作並發展該業務。隨著該市場的成長和流動性的增強，我們繼續看到圍繞該市場進行優化並透過交易獲取一些額外價值的機會。因此，我們要確保有足夠的可用容量。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.

鮑伯‧布拉克特（Bob Brackett），伯恩斯坦研究公司。

Good morning. A bit of a follow-up on the LNG theme, but more specifically around the FID cadence this year and next. We've got Papua LNG and PNG. You've got Rovuma and maybe even Coral North in Mozambique. Those are very different investments than adding another well in the Permian.

早安.對液化天然氣 (LNG) 主題進行一些後續關注，但更具體地圍繞今年和明年的 FID 節奏。我們有巴布亞液化天然氣和巴布亞紐幾內亞。莫三比克有魯伍馬，甚至可能有北珊瑚島。這些投資與在二疊紀盆地增加另一口油井的投資截然不同。

What do you need to see in terms of maybe returns and certainty and maybe even local situation to give you the confidence to move forward on those multi-decadal assets?

您需要看到哪些回報、確定性甚至當地情況才能讓您有信心繼續投資這些數十年的資產？

Good morning, Bob. Thanks for the question. You're right that each of these projects are somewhat unique. However, what I would tell you is the constant here, in terms of how we're evaluating and deciding to go forward, is making sure that they're low-cost to supply, so they're competitive supply sources in a market, so that as we move forward, irrespective of how the market develops in the highs and the lows, that we have an advantaged cost to supply vis a vis the rest of the supply curve in some of our competitors.

早安，鮑伯。謝謝你的提問。您說得對，這些項目每個都有些獨特。然而，我想告訴你的是，就我們如何評估和決定前進而言，這裡不變的是確保它們的供應成本低，因此它們在市場上是具有競爭力的供應來源，這樣隨著我們前進，無論市場如何發展，在高峰和低谷中，相對於我們的一些競爭對手的其他供應曲線，我們的供應成本都具有優勢。

That's a critical component. With that comes then an advantaged project and advantaged returns. That is fundamental to what we're looking at with each of these.

這是一個關鍵組成部分。隨之而來的是優勢項目和優勢回報。這對於我們研究的每一個問題都是至關重要的。

As Kathy mentioned earlier in the call, the project organization that we had brings a huge advantage in this space to help us drive these projects to the left-hand side of the cost to supply curve. I'd also add that our technology organization that we've established and the focus that they're putting on in working with the project's organization is another advantage that helps drive that to the left-hand side of the cost to supply curve.

正如凱西在電話會議中早些時候提到的，我們的專案組織在這個領域帶來了巨大的優勢，幫助我們將這些專案推向成本供應曲線的左側。我還要補充一點，我們建立的技術組織以及他們在與專案組織合作時所關注的重點是另一個優勢，有助於將其推向成本供應曲線的左側。

That's, I would say, the primary variables at play here. Obviously, we look at the stability of the area that we're in. We've got a really long history of managing that exposure and risk. We feel pretty good around what we're seeing in the local communities that we're looking at and the steps that we can take to make sure that we can develop a long-term successful business there in a stable environment.

我想說，這就是這裡起作用的主要變數。顯然，我們關注的是所在地區的穩定性。我們在管理這種風險敞口和風險方面有著悠久的歷史。我們對所關注的當地社區的情況以及我們可以採取的措施感到非常滿意，以確保我們能夠在穩定的環境中發展長期成功的業務。

I think that piece of it, while certainly something that we need to manage and be aware of, isn't impacting, isn't the largest variable with respect to how we think about moving forward on these projects.

我認為，雖然這部分確實是我們需要管理和注意的事情，但它並不會產生影響，也不是我們如何考慮推進這些專案的最大變數。

Very clear. We should think 2025 for PNG and '26 for Rovuma still?

非常清楚。我們是否仍應該考慮巴布亞紐幾內亞在 2025 年建成，魯伍馬在 2026 年建成？

We're working towards the 2026 timeframe in the Rovuma and PNG. We're continuing to work through a target. Hopefully, we'll have something near the back end of this year for FID.

我們正在努力實現魯伍馬和巴布亞紐幾內亞在 2026 年實現這一目標。我們正在繼續努力實現目標。希望我們能在今年年底前為 FID 做出一些貢獻。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Neal Dingmann, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Morning. Thanks for the time. Darren, my question is around your long-term plan. I believe you all have suggested about growing the earnings around $20 billion in cash flow by an additional $30 billion by 2030. I think that goes along with the US production, I think, doubling or severely increasing. I'm just wondering, in order to achieve this, I'm just wondering what type of levels are you all assuming on broad strokes for annual capital spend and OpEx during this period in order to achieve it? I'm just wondering, like, directionally, what are you assuming?

早晨。謝謝你的時間。達倫，我的問題是關於你的長期計劃。我相信大家都建議到 2030 年將現金流的收益增加約 200 億美元，再增加 300 億美元。我認為這與美國產量翻倍或大幅增加相一致。我只是想知道，為了實現這一目標，我只是想知道你們都假設在此期間年度資本支出和營運支出達到什麼樣的水平才能實現這一目標？我只是想知道，從方向上看，您假設什麼？

Sure. So, I'll start with capital because we gave guidance at our corporate plan. You know, this coming year in 2025, we said we expect cash capex to be between $27 billion and $29 billion. And then between 2026 and 2030, that number is $28 billion to $33 billion. And then if you just think about expenses, obviously, we're growing, and we're growing across our business. That is going to have growth expense associated with it. And some of the offset to that is driving significant structural cost reductions.

當然。因此，我將從資本開始，因為我們在公司計劃中給出了指導。您知道，我們表示，預計 2025 年現金資本支出將在 270 億美元至 290 億美元之間。然後在 2026 年至 2030 年間，這個數字將達到 280 億美元至 330 億美元。如果你只考慮費用，顯然我們正在成長，我們的業務也在成長。這將產生相關的成長費用。而部分抵銷作用則推動了結構性成本的大幅降低。

And so, to date, since 2019, we're at a little over $12 billion in terms of structural cost reductions. And we said between here and 2030, we expect to get that number up to $18 billion. So, kind of an additional $6 billion in structural cost savings to help to offset, just the cost of that growth overall, and obviously, a little bit of inflation.

因此，自 2019 年以來，到目前為止，我們在結構性成本削減方面的支出略高於 120 億美元。我們表示，從現在到 2030 年，我們預計這一數字將達到 180 億美元。因此，額外的 60 億美元結構性成本節省有助於抵消整體成長的成本，顯然還有一點點通貨膨脹。

And the last thing I would say on that topic is we have a global procurement organization, as we talked about, the Global Projects Organization, working pretty hard to make sure that we're bringing kind of the full scale and the manner in which we integrate our business kind of to bear as we procure the different products and services that we procure. So, they're doing quite a good job, as they look to help us hold down expenses.

關於這個主題，我想說的最後一件事是，我們有一個全球採購組織，正如我們討論過的，全球專案組織，它非常努力地確保我們在採購不同產品和服務時，能夠全面發揮我們業務的整合方式。所以，他們做得相當不錯，因為他們希望幫助我們控制開支。

Yeah, and maybe just to build on Kathryn's point, if you look at where we were in 2019, we challenged the organization to pay for the growth to make sure that as we were growing and adding some of those additional expenses associated with new facilities, new production, that we offset that through our structural cost reductions. If you look at where we were in 2019 and where we ended 2024, not only have we offset all the additional cost of the growth, we offset all the inflation and had a further reduction of about $1 billion and $0.5 billion.

是的，也許只是為了延續凱瑟琳的觀點，如果你看看我們在 2019 年的情況，我們要求組織為增長付費，以確保隨著我們的發展和增加與新設施、新生產相關的一些額外費用，我們通過結構性成本削減來抵消這些費用。如果你看看我們在 2019 年的情況以及我們在 2024 年結束時的情況，我們不僅抵消了成長帶來的所有額外成本，還抵消了所有通貨膨脹，並且進一步減少了約 10 億美元和 5 億美元。

So, I think we've demonstrated the ability to both grow the business and grow the value while reducing cost. I think that is a very unique challenge and I think a great testament to the work that this organization has been doing to create value out there.

因此，我認為我們已經證明了在降低成本的同時發展業務和增加價值的能力。我認為這是一個非常獨特的挑戰，我認為這是對該組織為創造價值所做的工作的極大證明。

The only other point I would make is not only do we have really solid plans to 2030, the new markets and new businesses that we're starting don't really start to move the needle until we're beyond that 2030 timeframe. What I'm excited about is not only the fidelity that we have in terms of how we get to 2030 and that 2030 objective that we've talked about, but also that we've established a foundation that gives us a platform for growing well into the future in markets that are decoupled from the commodity price cycle. That's pretty exciting for our company.

我要說的另一點是，我們不僅有非常具體的 2030 年計劃，而且我們正在啟動的新市場和新業務直到 2030 年之後才會真正開始發揮作用。令我興奮的是，我們不僅對如何實現 2030 年目標和我們談到的 2030 年目標充滿信心，而且我們已經建立了基礎，為我們在不受大宗商品價格週期影響的市場中實現未來良好增長奠定了平台。這對我們公司來說非常令人興奮。

Well said. Thanks, Darren. Thanks, Kathryn.

說得好。謝謝，達倫。謝謝，凱瑟琳。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

Good morning. Maybe to take a slightly different tack here on some of the policy changes, like you mentioned at the beginning of the call, Darren, some favorable changes. One of the other ones that's percolating a little bit in the executive order was for the EPA to take a look at the endangerment finding on CO2.

早安.也許對一些政策變化採取稍微不同的策略，就像您在電話會議開始時提到的那樣，達倫，一些有利的變化。行政命令中正在醞釀的另一項內容是要求美國環保署審查二氧化碳的危害發現。

I know there's a lot of ways CO2 is approached in terms of what's in the IRA and stuff, but if we were to see a change in federal government regulations on CO2, how do you think about that affecting some of the decisions you're making on the renewable and low-carbon investment approaches here?

我知道在 IRA 等方面有很多處理二氧化碳的方法，但如果我們看到聯邦政府對二氧化碳的監管發生變化，您認為這會對您在可再生和低碳投資方法方面做出的一些決定產生什麼影響？

Good morning, Roger. Thanks for the question. Let me just start with the fundamentals of how we think about this stuff, because our work in the low-carbon solutions business is reflective of not any specific policy that's existing. In fact, we put that business together and started working on it well in advance of the IRA and some of the policy that the Biden administration brought forward.

早安，羅傑。謝謝你的提問。讓我先從我們對這些問題的基本看法開始，因為我們在低碳解決方案業務方面的工作並不反映現有的任何具體政策。事實上，早在愛爾蘭共和軍和拜登政府提出的一些政策之前，我們就已經開始著手這項業務了。

We focused instead on what we recognize is a need to continue to supply the energy sources and products that the world desperately needs to grow and for people's prosperity to improve, but at the same time reduce emissions. I would say as a company, we recognize the need for society to reduce emissions in a thoughtful, constructive way.

相反，我們關注的是，我們認識到需要繼續提供世界發展和人民繁榮所迫切需要的能源和產品，但同時減少排放。我想說，作為一家公司，我們認識到社會需要以深思熟慮、建設性的方式減少排放。

What we're trying to do is offer up a skill set and a capability set that can help accomplish that. That's the long-term objective here. Putting in place the foundations for an approach that makes sense, that leverages our key competitive advantages and affordably reduces emissions while we continue to meet the needs for our products is part of the strategy. Frankly, we're demonstrating the ability to do that and to pay for it and to generate returns at the same time.

我們正在嘗試提供一套技能和一套能力來幫助實現這一目標。這是我們的長期目標。制定合理的方法基礎，利用我們的關鍵競爭優勢，以可承受的方式減少排放，同時繼續滿足我們產品的需求，這是該策略的一部分。坦白說，我們正在展示這樣做的能力，並同時支付費用和產生回報。

This and equation is, we believe, a real thing and that people should be focused on doing it all. That's what we're trying to do. I would say that's the foundation. That's how we think about it. We recognize the demand for the reduction and the intensity of the focus on that may vary as you move across different political regimes and move around the world and we'll move up and down with time, but the fundamentals, we believe, are there. That's what we're focused on is the long-term game here and making sure that what we bring forward in terms of a solution is cost efficient and very effective and that's how we're looking at it.

我們相信，這是一個真實存在的東西，人們應該集中精力去實現它。這就是我們正在努力做的事情。我想說這就是基礎。我們就是這樣想的。我們認識到，隨著不同政治體制和世界各地的變化，對削減開支的需求和關注的強度可能會有所不同，而且我們會隨著時間的推移而起伏不定，但我們相信，基本面是存在的。我們關注的是長期博弈，確保我們提出的解決方案具有成本效益且非常有效，這就是我們看待它的方式。

Frankly, from what we've seen so far, I think we've got an advantage with respect to where we're at and looking at those opportunities and we've got an advantage with our capabilities and with the facilities that we've brought on so far and the ones that we're developing. We feel good about that.

坦白說，從我們目前所看到的情況來看，我認為我們在目前的處境和機會方面具有優勢，我們在能力、我們迄今為止引進的設施以及我們正在開發的設施方面也具有優勢。我們對此感到很高興。

The only thing I would add is obviously the new administration is focused on trying to streamline regulation and looking at how that can open things up for business. When we look at, just as an example, looking to permanently sequester CO2, getting that permitting has been a long process. It's just one area of many that you can look at across the industry to say, what things can be done to ease regulation so that business can get done more quickly, projects can get put in place more quickly. We look forward to continuing to discuss those things with the new administration.

我唯一想補充的是，新政府顯然致力於簡化監管，並研究如何為企業創造便利。舉個例子，如果我們想要永久封存二氧化碳，那麼獲得許可是一個漫長的過程。這只是整個行業中你可以關注的眾多領域之一，你可以考慮採取哪些措施來放鬆監管，以便更快地完成業務，更快地完成專案。我們期待與新政府繼續討論這些事情。

The good news, Roger, is we've got flexibility here so we can adjust as we move forward and respond to some of the changes that we see.

羅傑，好消息是，我們在這方面具有靈活性，因此我們可以在前進的過程中進行調整，並對我們看到的一些變化做出反應。

Appreciate that. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Thank you. Good morning, Darren, you guys clearly have an expertise in the deep water, in your success, whether, say, two decades ago in Angola or recently in Ghana. But one deep water area that you are noticeable missing is the Gulf of Mexico.

謝謝。早上好，達倫，你們顯然在深水領域擁有專業知識，並取得了成功，無論是二十年前在安哥拉還是最近在加納。但你明顯忽略了一個深水區，那就是墨西哥灣。

You really, relative to the size of the company, you're really small. I'm trying to understand that. Is it because when you guys looking at that, you don't like about the cost structure there or you don't like about the regulatory environment or you don't like about the geologies? And as such that with the new administration, the approach there, is that going to change the way that how you look at that basin?

相對於公司的規模而言，你們確實很小。我正在努力去理解這一點。是因為當你們看到這一點時，你們不喜歡那裡的成本結構，或是不喜歡那裡的監管環境，或不喜歡那裡的地質條件？那麼，新政府採取的措施會改變您看待該盆地的方式嗎？

Yeah. Good morning, Paul. Thanks for the question. You're right that in terms of as you look around the world, our presence in the Gulf of Mexico is more limited. And I would just tell you it's a function of evaluating the opportunities there and the cost of supply. You touched on a couple of the factors.

是的。早安，保羅。謝謝你的提問。您說得對，從世界範圍來看，我們在墨西哥灣的存在更為有限。我只想告訴你，這是一個評估那裡的機會和供應成本的功能。您提到了幾個因素。

One is the cost of supply and the cost to develop there in the Gulf of Mexico. You talked about the geology. The geology is tough as well, which obviously impacts the cost. And so we look at all those factors. We continue to evaluate opportunities. And if the Trump administration opens up new areas for exploration, we will be in there with the rest of industry evaluating to see if we think there's an opportunity to cost effectively develop those resources.

一是墨西哥灣的供應成本和開發成本。您談到了地質狀況。地質條件也很惡劣，顯然會影響成本。因此，我們會考慮所有這些因素。我們將繼續評估機會。如果川普政府開放新的勘探領域，我們將與其他業內人士一起進行評估，看看是否有機會以經濟有效的方式開發這些資源。

But I'll come back to -- and so that's the lens we put across all of the opportunities. The Gulf of Mexico is no better off or no worse off than anything else that we're looking at. But it's really the criteria of cost effective supply being on the low end of the cost of supply curve, making sure that we can develop those in an advantaged way that then brings advantaged returns into the portfolio.

但我會回過頭來——這就是我們看待所有機會的視角。墨西哥灣的情況並不比我們所看到的其他地方好或壞。但實際上，成本效益供應的標準是處於供應成本曲線的低端，確保我們能夠以有利的方式開發這些供應，從而為投資組合帶來有利的回報。

And that's the criteria that we're using. And if we find something in the Gulf of Mexico that we convince ourselves will allow us to do that, we'll develop it. If we don't, we'll continue to find and look for those opportunities in other parts of the world. We're pretty agnostic with respect to location, much more focused on the characteristics and the ability to develop advantaged barrels.

這就是我們使用的標準。如果我們在墨西哥灣發現某種資源，並確信可以讓我們實現這一目標，我們就會發展它。如果我們不這樣做，我們將繼續在世界其他地方尋找這些機會。我們對地點不太了解，更關注特性和開發優勢桶的能力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德、派珀·桑德勒。

Maybe one on carbon capture. You have four decent-sized projects set to start up over the next 24 months on your list. I know in the past you've talked about some of the challenges of effectively creating a new industry that doesn't currently exist, particularly on the commercial side.

也許其中一個是關於碳捕獲的。您的清單上有四個規模相當大的項目將在未來 24 個月內啟動。我知道您過去曾談到有效創建一個目前尚不存在的新行業所面臨的一些挑戰，特別是在商業方面。

Can you maybe give some color as to how the commercial side of that business has evolved, what challenges remain, including maybe on the regulatory support side, and maybe what contribution you expect to see over the next couple years out of the CCS business?

您能否介紹一下該業務的商業方面是如何發展的，還有哪些挑戰，包括監管支援方面，以及您預計未來幾年 CCS 業務將做出哪些貢獻？

Yeah. Thanks, Ryan. I think a lot has happened in this space over time, and I think probably the most important development is there's been a real shakeout between people who are out there talking about a carbon capture and storage business and people who are actually capable of doing it.

是的。謝謝，瑞安。我認為隨著時間的推移，這個領域發生了很多事情，我認為最重要的發展是，談論碳捕獲和儲存業務的人和真正有能力做到這一點的人之間發生了真正的變化。

And that has, I think, created a lot more clarity, particularly from a customer standpoint in terms of where they need to go to find companies that can deliver on this. We are, as you mentioned, uniquely positioned here. We've got the world's only end-to-end capture, transport, and storage system. And so that puts us in a unique position to work with customers to help them decarbonize.

我認為，這創造了更多的清晰度，特別是從客戶的角度來看，他們需要去哪裡找到可以實現這一目標的公司。正如您所說，我們在這裡具有獨特的優勢。我們擁有世界上唯一的端到端捕獲、運輸和儲存系統。因此，這使我們處於獨特的地位，可以與客戶合作，幫助他們實現脫碳。

And so I think those conversations continue to happen. There is a continued interest. We've got a fairly healthy sales pipeline that we're working with customers on. So I like how that's developed. I like our position. We continue to do a lot of work around that system that we've built and making sure that unlike a lot of companies in this space that are limited to a single site, we've got a system and we're developing that system so that we've got a lot of optionality and take advantage of storage sites all along that pipeline.

所以我認為這些對話將會繼續發生。人們對此一直感興趣。我們擁有一個相當健康的銷售管道，正在與客戶合作。所以我很喜歡它的發展方式。我喜歡我們的立場。我們繼續圍繞我們已構建的系統進行大量工作，並確保與該領域中許多僅限於單個站點的公司不同，我們擁有一個系統，並且正在開發該系統，以便我們擁有很多可選性並利用整個管道上的存儲站點。

And so we feel good about having a very robust system that we can then ensure customers that when we commit to capture their CO2 and store it, that we can effectively do that and manage any of the variables that kind of come along the pike.

因此，我們很高興擁有一個非常強大的系統，我們可以向客戶保證，當我們承諾捕獲並儲存他們的二氧化碳時，我們可以有效地做到這一點，並管理隨之而來的任何變數。

And so that's how we're looking at it. We've got pretty aggressive growth plans in this space. But, again, all dependent upon customer interest and customers' willingness to engage in long-term contracts. And so that's what we're continuing to work on. Like I said, a lot of interest in this space given our unique abilities.

這就是我們看待它的方式。我們在這個領域制定了非常積極的成長計劃。但是，所有這些都取決於客戶的興趣和客戶簽訂長期合約的意願。這就是我們正在繼續努力的事情。正如我所說，鑑於我們獨特的能力，人們對這個領域很感興趣。

And what we said back at the corporate plan is when we look at our low-carbon solutions business in its entirety, right, so obviously the CCS opportunities you just talked about, but hydrogen, lithium, everything all together, we would see $2 billion in earnings growth kind of between now and [2013] (corrected by company after the call). Obviously that will come as we pick up momentum and start to implement the projects that we've been talking about.

我們在公司計劃中說過，當我們從整體上看待我們的低碳解決方案業務時，顯然您剛才談到的 CCS 機會，以及氫能、鋰能等所有一切，從現在到 2020 年，我們的盈利增長將達到 20 億美元。[2013]（公司在電話會議後已更正）。顯然，隨著我們獲得動力並開始實施我們一直在談論的項目，這一目標就會實現。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Biraj Borkhataria RBC - Analyst

Biraj Borkhataria RBC - 分析師

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to get some perspective on the chemicals market. You show a helpful slide every quarter on the margins related to a 10-year average. Obviously the Chem's margin has been well below that very consistently.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我只是想了解一下化學品市場的情況。您每季都會展示一張與 10 年平均值相關的邊際有用的幻燈片。顯然，Chem 的利潤率一直遠低於這個水準。

So do you see any signs of green shoots in that space, either regionally or product-wise that you can talk about? And as a quick follow-on to that separately, are you able to disclose your reserve replacement ratio for the year, both total and organic? Thank you.

那麼，您是否看到該領域出現了復甦跡象，無論是從區域角度還是產品角度，可以談談嗎？作為對此問題的快速跟進，您能否披露今年的總儲量替代率和有機儲量替代率？謝謝。

Yeah, good morning, Biraj. I'll start with that and see if Kathryn has anything she wants to add. But the margins that we show and the markers that we show are kind of an industry perspective with respect to kind of the distribution of the chemical business globally around the world. And the average margin that you see there, we're advantaged versus that with respect to our facilities. And so as you look across the world, I'd say the most advantaged region today is North America, where, as you know, we've got a fairly large footprint.

是的，早上好，Biraj。我將從那開始，看看凱瑟琳是否還有什麼要補充的。但我們顯示的利潤率和指標是從產業角度來看全球化學業務的分佈。而您看到的平均利潤率，相對於我們的設施而言，我們具有優勢。因此，放眼世界，我認為當今最具優勢的地區是北美，正如你所知，我們在那裡擁有相當大的影響力。

So we've been, despite I'd say very challenging conditions, I think we've been well positioned there and very proud of the work that our folks in the chemical business have been doing to optimize and make sure that in this environment they continue to deliver earnings.

因此，儘管我認為條件非常具有挑戰性，但我認為我們一直處於有利地位，並且對我們化學業務部門的員工所做的工作感到非常自豪，他們一直在優化並確保在這種環境下繼續盈利。

The demand in chemicals is actually very strong, record levels of demand. The challenge has obviously been in the supply side of the equation. I think in terms of a green shoot comment, I mean, how do you balance supply and demand? I mean, every facility out there has to kind of figure out where they're at in the cost of supply and whether they can survive or not. And I think you're seeing more and more companies that are disadvantaged with respect to their facilities evaluate their business and ability to be successful in the kind of market that we're in.

化學品的需求實際上非常強勁，需求水準創歷史新高。挑戰顯然在於供給方面。我認為就綠芽評論而言，我的意思是，如何平衡供需？我的意思是，每個設施都必須弄清楚他們的供應成本在哪裡，以及他們是否能夠生存。我認為，你會看到越來越多的在設施方面處於劣勢的公司正在評估他們的業務以及在我們所處的市場中取得成功的能力。

The way I look at this at a macro level, these cycles are necessary. We've got to go through the lows to make sure that the industry continues to focus on efficiency and effectiveness and continuing the high grading of the broader overall industry portfolio.

從宏觀角度來看，這些循環是必要的。我們必須渡過低谷，確保行業繼續注重效率和效益，並繼續保持更廣泛的整體行業組合的高評級。

Our job, obviously, is to make sure that our facilities are on the high end of that high grading, and we feel really good about where we've been there. And so I think that's going to continue to happen. I think from my perspective, you know, this challenge here is not unlike the challenges we've seen in the past and, frankly, very much in line with our philosophy of you build this business to be successful in the bottom of the cycle, and then you take the gravy that comes with the top of the cycle. And so we feel good about our ability to be successful even in these bottom of the cycle conditions.

顯然，我們的工作是確保我們的設施達到高水平，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。所以我認為這種情況將會繼續發生。我認為從我的角度來看，現在面臨的挑戰與我們過去遇到的挑戰並沒有什麼不同，坦率地說，這非常符合我們的理念，即在周期的底部建立這項業務並取得成功，然後在周期的頂部獲得豐厚的回報。因此，即使在周期底部的情況下，我們仍然對自己的成功能力感到滿意。

Kathryn, anything to add?

凱瑟琳，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The only thing I'd add is if you look at the projects we're bringing online those will continue to help us to be advantaged, whether it's the China One Chemical Complex that's coming online, which is really focused on performance chemicals, right, the upgrade we're doing overall in our Singapore facility, kind of resid upgrade on the margin helps us.

我唯一想補充的是，如果你看看我們正在上線的項目，這些項目將繼續幫助我們獲得優勢，無論是即將上線的中國一號化工綜合體（它真正專注於高性能化學品），還是我們在新加坡工廠進行的整體升級，邊際上的殘油升級對我們都有幫助。

And then, obviously, bringing on more circular plastics basically helps us in terms of advanced recycling. So all the projects we have will continue to well position the company, and we've been very focused on ensuring that we're a low-cost supplier, which makes us resilient even in these difficult market conditions.

顯然，引入更多的循環塑膠基本上有助於我們實現先進的回收。因此，我們所有的專案都將繼續為公司帶來良好的定位，我們一直非常注重確保我們是一家低成本供應商，這使得我們即使在困難的市場條件下也能保持韌性。

Anything on the reserve replacement ratio?

有關於儲備替代率的資訊嗎？

No, we don't really consider that to be particularly informative of where the company is going.

不，我們並不認為這能特別有助於了解公司的發展方向。

Okay. Understood.

好的。明白了。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼 (Jason Gabelman)，TD Cowen。

Hey, morning. Thanks for squeezing me in here. I wanted to ask a question on slide six where you lay out all the projects. And, you know, Doug alluded to it earlier. It seems like you're missing a couple of projects that are starting up here, TCO, the Permian Pipeline project. We would have thought the overall potential earnings number from all the projects combined are closer to $5 billion, including those two projects. So, first, is that correct?

嘿，早安。謝謝你把我擠到這裡。我想問一個關於第六張投影片的問題，您在其中列出了所有項目。而且，你知道，道格之前曾經提到過這一點。看起來你錯過了幾個正在這裡啟動的項目，TCO，二疊紀管道項目。我們原本以為所有項目（包括這兩個項目）的整體潛在收益將接近 50 億美元。那麼，首先，這是正確的嗎？

And, second, is there any major difference you see between the earnings contribution of these projects and the cash flow contribution? Thanks.

其次，您認為這些項目的獲利貢獻和現金流貢獻有什麼重大差異嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. So, I'm happy to take that. We tended to focus here on the projects where we're the operator as opposed to, TCO, where we're not the operator. Obviously, we will get some benefit from that, but we did not focus on projects that were not the operator. We also focused on projects that are newly starting up as opposed to projects like the Permian Crude Venture that is already underway.

是的。所以，我很高興接受這個。我們傾向於專注於我們作為運營商的項目，而不是我們不是運營商的 TCO。顯然，我們會從中獲得一些好處，但我們並沒有把重點放在非營運商的專案上。我們也關注新啟動的項目，而不是像二疊紀原油計畫這樣已經在進行中的項目。

And so, I would say, yes, we clearly continue to get incremental benefits from the projects that are already underway that the company started up pre 2025. And, obviously, to the extent that we're participating in an arrangement where somebody else is the operator and projects are starting up, we will get the benefits from those things.

所以，我想說，是的，我們顯然會繼續從公司在 2025 年之前啟動的已經在進行的專案中獲得增量收益。顯然，只要我們參與由其他人作為運營商並啟動專案的安排，我們就會從中獲益。

And I would add, in terms of those other projects that you referenced, obviously, they're baked into our plans and the volumes that we shared as part of the Corporate Plan Outlook includes all elements of the projects that are coming on.

我想補充一點，就您提到的其他項目而言，顯然它們已經納入我們的計劃，並且我們在《企業計劃展望》中分享的內容涵蓋了即將開展的項目的所有要素。

Great. And any difference between earnings and cash flow contribution from these projects? Any major difference?

偉大的。這些項目的收益和現金流貢獻有什麼差別嗎？有什麼重大差異嗎？

All I would say is, typically, on projects generally, there's a little bit of a lag on earnings relative to cash flow.

我想說的是，通常情況下，對於一般專案來說，收益相對於現金流量會有一點滯後。

Great. Thanks. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。謝謝。

All right, Jason, thanks. And thanks, everybody, for joining this call and for your questions. We'll post the transcript of this call to the Investor section of our website early next week. And have a nice weekend. That concludes today's call. Thank you

好的，傑森，謝謝。感謝大家參加這次電話會議並提出問題。我們將於下週初將本次電話會議的記錄發佈到我們網站的投資者部分。祝您週末愉快。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝