埃克森美孚 (XOM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Welcome to ExxonMobil's fourth quarter, 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加埃克森美孚 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

We appreciate you joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

I'm Jim Chapman, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations.

我是吉姆‧查普曼 (Jim Chapman)，財務長與投資者關係副總裁。

I'm joined by Darren Woods, Chairman and CEO; and Kathy Mikells, Senior Vice President and CFO.

與我一起參加的是董事長兼執行長 Darren Woods；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Kathy Mikells。

This quarter's presentation and prerecorded remarks are available on the Investors section of our website.

本季的簡報和預先錄製的評論可在我們網站的「投資者」部分找到。

They're meant to accompany the third quarter earnings news release, which is posted in the same location.

它們將與發佈在同一位置的第三季收益新聞稿一起發布。

During today's presentation, we'll make forward-looking comments, including discussion of our long-term plans and integration efforts, which are still being developed and which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

在今天的演講中，我們將發表前瞻性評論，包括討論我們的長期計劃和整合工作，這些計劃和工作仍在製定中，且存在風險和不確定性。

Please read our cautionary statement on slide 2.

請閱讀投影片 2 上的警告聲明。

You can find more information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements in our SEC filings on our website.

您可以在我們網站上的美國證券交易委員會文件中找到有關任何前瞻性陳述的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

Note that we also provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are also posted on the website.

請注意，我們還在收益幻燈片末尾提供了補充信息，這些信息也發佈在網站上。

And now I'll turn it over to Darren for opening remarks.

現在我將請 Darren 致開場白。

Good morning and thanks for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

I'll focus my comments this morning on ExxonMobil's 2024 results and the company we've become.

今天早上我的評論將重點放在埃克森美孚 2024 年的表現以及我們已經成為的公司。

In our prepared presentation available on our website, Kathy dives deeper into our results and long term growth outlook.

在我們網站上準備好的簡報中，凱西深入探討了我們的業績和長期成長前景。

What our 2024 performance makes clear, is that the transformed company we've built is delivering.

我們的 2024 年業績清楚地表明，我們所打造的轉型公司正在實現成果。

We strengthened and further capitalize on our unique competitive advantages, technology, scale, integration, execution, excellence, of course, people.

我們加強並進一步利用我們獨特的競爭優勢、技術、規模、整合、執行、卓越，當然還有人才。

We demonstrated the strength of our consistent strategy.

我們展示了我們一貫戰略的力量。

Now, in its eighth year of driving greater value for society and shareholders alike.

如今，公司已進入第八年，致力於為社會和股東創造更大的價值。

We set and achieved ambitious objectives.

我們制定並實現了雄心勃勃的目標。

When we say we'll do something, we deliver.

當我們說到做到時，我們就會做到。

And we expanded our unrivaled set of opportunities for profitable growth, both now and long into the future.

我們擴大了無與倫比的獲利成長機會，無論是現在還是將來。

The ultimate source of cash, distributions, and shareholder value is unchanging, investments in advantaged high return assets and projects.

現金、分配和股東價值的最終來源是不變的，即對有優勢的高回報資產和專案的投資。

The proof of our transformation shows up in our performance.

我們的轉變體現在我們的表現上。

Operationally, we delivered strong results across the board including safety, a bedrock commitment underpinning everything we do; reliability, where we achieved record performance in our product solutions, business; and emissions, where we've achieved a more than 60% reduction in methane intensity since 2016.

在營運方面，我們在各方面都取得了強勁的業績，包括安全，這是我們所做一切事情的基本承諾；可靠性，我們在產品解決方案、業務方面取得了創紀錄的業績；和排放，自 2016 年以來，我們已將甲烷強度降低了 60% 以上。

Financially, we demonstrated our steadily improving earnings power across a range of metrics.

財務方面，我們透過一系列指標展示了穩步提升的獲利能力。

We delivered earnings of $34 billion in 2024, our third highest result in a decade, despite softer market conditions.

儘管市場環境疲軟，但我們在 2024 年實現了 340 億美元的盈利，這是十年來第三高的業績。

For five years, we've grown earnings excluding identified items, a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 30%.

五年來，我們的獲利（不包括已識別項目）一直保持成長，年複合成長率接近 30%。

We generated cash flow from operations of $55 billion, also our third highest in a decade to fund profitable growth, maintain our financial strength, and reward shareholders.

我們的經營活動產生了 550 億美元的現金流，這也是我們十年來的第三高水平，用於資助盈利性增長、保持我們的財務實力並回報股東。

Excluding working capital, our free cash flow, more than covered shareholder distributions.

除營運資本外，我們的自由現金流已超過股東分配。

And we delivered a return on capital employed of 13%.

我們實現了13%的資本報酬率。

Over five years, our average return on capital employed is an industry leading 11%.

五年來，我們的平均資本使用報酬率達到業界領先的 11%。

When you set aside cash balances and capital and projects that are under construction and yet to start up, our 2024 ROCE rises to roughly 17%.

當您留出現金餘額和資本以及正在建造但尚未啟動的項目時，我們的 2024 年 ROCE 將上升至約 17%。

It's a five year average of about 15%.

五年平均值約為15%。

Our disciplined approach to investing continues to generate returns well above our cost of capital.

我們嚴謹的投資方式持續為我們帶來遠高於資本成本的回報。

Every part of our business contributed to our success.

我們業務的每個部分都為我們的成功做出了貢獻。

We built the best upstream portfolio in the industry.

我們建立了業界最好的上游產品組合。

In 2024, we achieved the highest ever production from our advantaged assets and the highest liquids production from our overall portfolio in more than 40 years.

2024 年，我們優勢資產的產量達到了有史以來的最高水平，整體投資組合的液體產量也達到了 40 多年來的最高水平。

In the Permian, we delivered record production from both our heritage ExxonMobil assets and our pioneer assets.

在二疊紀盆地，我們利用埃克森美孚的傳統資產和先鋒資產實現了創紀錄的產量。

Together, the two are even stronger.

兩者聯手，力量就更大了。

As we said last month, we now see an average of more than $3 billion per year of synergies from our combined assets with production growing from 1.5 million oil equivalent barrels per day at the end of 2024 to 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, a more than 50% increase.

正如我們上個月所說的那樣，我們現在看到，我們的合併資產每年平均產生超過30 億美元的協同效應，產量將從2024 年底的150 萬桶油當量/天增長到2030 年的230 萬桶/天，增幅超過50%。

This growth will further strengthen US energy security and will do it with even better overall environmental performance.

這種成長將進一步加強美國的能源安全，並將帶來更好的整體環境績效。

In Guyana, we delivered record production from the world's premier deepwater development.

在圭亞那，我們在全球頂級深水開發項目中實現了創紀錄的產量。

We've gone from discovery to 650,000 barrels per day in just 10 years.

我們僅用 10 年就從發現石油發展到日產 65 萬桶石油。

The pace for deepwater projects, the world has rarely seen.

深水工程的推進速度，世界罕見。

The benefits are tremendous, not just profitable growth for ExxonMobil, but rapidly rising living standards for the Guyanese people.

其效益是巨大的，不僅埃克森美孚的利潤成長，圭亞那人民的生活水準也迅速提高。

The GDP per capita more than tripling since we started production in 2020.

自2020年我們開始生產以來，人均GDP成長了兩倍以上。

Turning to product solutions, we further enhanced our already industry leading portfolio by divesting non-strategic assets and establishing the foundation for new world products that outperform existing alternatives.

談到產品解決方案，我們透過剝離非策略性資產並為優於現有替代品的新產品奠定基礎，進一步增強了我們已經處於行業領先的產品組合。

The advantage projects we brought online over time drove record sales of high value products.

我們隨著時間的推移上線的優勢項目推動了高價值產品的創紀錄銷售。

In 2024.

在2024年。

Our ongoing shift to a more profitable product mix is a key driver of earnings improvement and product solutions.

我們持續轉向更具獲利能力的產品組合，這是獲利改善和產品解決方案的關鍵驅動力。

We also advanced our plans to develop and grow new businesses.

我們也推進了開發和發展新業務的計劃。

Most notably our proximate resin systems and carbon materials with an estimated total addressable market of $100 billion by 2030.

最值得注意的是，我們的近似樹脂系統和碳材料到 2030 年的總目標市場規模預計為 1,000 億美元。

Within low carbon solutions, we demonstrated strength and commercial interest through additional customer contracts and equity partnerships.

在低碳解決方案領域，我們透過額外的客戶合約和股權合作夥伴關係展示了實力和商業利益。

We're the only company in the world today with an end-to-end system capable of capturing, transporting, and storing carbon emissions.

我們是當今世界上唯一一家擁有能夠捕獲、運輸和儲存碳排放的端到端系統的公司。

At 6.7 million tons per year, we've contracted more CO2 for transport and storage than any other company by far.

我們簽訂的二氧化碳運輸和儲存合約數量達到每年 670 萬噸，遠超過任何其他公司。

We're also well positioned to meet surging demand from data centers for low carbon power and [on a timetable that alternatives] such as nuclear simply can't match.

我們也完全有能力滿足資料中心對低碳電力日益增長的需求，並且按照核能等替代能源無法比擬的時間表。

On the hydrogen and lithium fronts, we announced new equity partnerships and offtake agreements that demonstrate the significant market interest these new businesses are generating.

在氫和鋰方面，我們宣布了新的股權合作夥伴關係和承購協議，顯示這些新業務正在引起市場的巨大興趣。

Our success in 2024 and every other year is due to our people.

我們在 2024 年以及其他每一年的成功都歸功於我們的員工。

It's not just that we recruit the best but that we give them the most challenging assignments to build the best capability.

我們不僅招募最優秀的人才，也給他們最具挑戰性的任務，建立最優秀的能力。

It's our culture, our mindset.

這是我們的文化，我們的思考方式。

When this team takes the field, we expect to win.

當這支球隊上場時，我們期望獲勝。

That drive underpins our value creation in 2025 as well.

這一動力也支撐了我們在 2025 年的價值創造。

We bring online a full slate of major projects to increase profitable volumes, make more profitable products, and lay the foundation for profitable new businesses.

我們上線了一系列重大項目，以增加盈利量、生產更多盈利產品並為盈利的新業務奠定基礎。

To name a few, will start up Yellowtail and Guyana, our fourth and largest development to date.

舉幾個例子，我們即將啟動 Yellowtail 和 Guyana 項目，這是我們迄今為止第四個也是最大的一個開發項目。

In the Permian, we'll further improve resource recovery using our next generation cube design and patented lightweight profit.

在二疊紀，我們將利用下一代立方體設計和專利的輕量級利潤進一步提高資源回收率。

This is the right kind of growth, low cost of supply, low emissions intensity, and high returns.

這是正確的成長方式：低供應成本、低排放強度、高回報。

At our Singapore refining and chemical complex, our Resid Upgrade project, we use new-to-world technology to transform bottom of the barrel molecules into a new grade of high value lube base stocks.

在我們的新加坡煉油和化工綜合體—渣油升級專案中，我們採用全新技術將最底層的分子轉化為新型高價值潤滑油基礎油。

We'll transform high sulfur low-value export fuels into higher value diesel for the UK market at our expanded refinery at Fawley.

我們將在擴建的福利煉油廠將高硫低價值出口燃料轉化為高價值柴油，供應英國市場。

We will expand our capacity to produce higher value performance polyethylene and polypropylene at our petrochemical complex in China.

我們將擴大中國石化綜合設施的產能，生產性能更佳的更高價值的聚乙烯和聚丙烯。

And we'll add new advanced recycling facilities at Baytown to meet the growing demand for certified circular polymers which has the added benefit of keeping hundreds of millions of pounds of plastic waste from being burned or buried.

我們將在貝敦增加新的先進回收設施，以滿足對經過認證的循環聚合物日益增長的需求，這還具有額外的好處，可以防止數億磅的塑膠垃圾被焚燒或掩埋。

Earlier this month, we sued the California Attorney General and activist groups for defamation and interference in our advanced recycling business.

本月早些時候，我們起訴加州總檢察長和激進團體誹謗並干涉我們的先進回收業務。

As our filing made clear, the suit is about abuse of the public trust and the hijacking of the legal system for financial and political gain.

正如我們的文件所明確指出的那樣，該訴訟是關於濫用公眾信任和劫持司法系統以獲得經濟和政治利益的。

I want to emphasize that we don't take these actions lightly.

我想強調的是，我們不會輕易採取這些行動。

Unfortunately, is another example of what it takes to defend our company and preserve the value we create for our customers, shareholders, and broader society.

不幸的是，這只是我們為捍衛公司和維護我們為客戶、股東以及更廣泛的社會所創造的價值所需付出努力的另一個例子。

Overall, the major projects we start up in 2025 will deliver more than $3 billion in earnings potential in 2026 at both constant and current prices and margins.

整體而言，我們在 2025 年啟動的重大專案將在 2026 年以不變價格和當前價格及利潤率創造超過 30 億美元的獲利潛力。

And this earnings gain excludes the uplift from our Permian growth plans.

這項獲利成長還不包括我們二疊紀成長計畫帶來的收益。

As we showed at the corporate plan update, ExxonMobil’s runway of profitable growth extends along into the future.

正如我們在公司計劃更新中所展示的那樣，埃克森美孚的獲利成長之路將延伸至未來。

Our new technology driven businesses such as proximate products and carbon materials creates huge opportunities to expand beyond traditional fuels and chemicals into higher growth, higher margin markets that are decoupled from commodity price fluctuations.

我們的新技術驅動型業務（例如近似產品和碳材料）創造了巨大的機會，可以從傳統燃料和化學品擴展到不受大宗商品價格波動影響的更高成長、更高利潤的市場。

This year, we expect to start up a new facility that can produce 25,000 metric tons of proximate products and plan to grow to nearly 200,000 tons by 2030.

今年，我們預計將啟動一座可生產 25,000 公噸近似產品的新工廠，並計劃在 2030 年將增長到近 20 萬噸。

We're committed to investing in these new businesses in a stepwise fashion, progresses in tandem with demonstrated success in the marketplace.

我們致力於逐步投資這些新業務，與市場的成功同步發展。

The change in administrations in the US, I want to say a few words about the right policy framework for successful energy future.

鑑於美國政府的更迭，我想就成功的能源未來正確的政策框架談幾句話。

I'll begin by noting that through 2030, roughly 90% of our planned CapEx is allocated to established fully functioning markets for energy and products that require no policy support.

首先要指出的是，到 2030 年，我們計劃的資本支出中約有 90% 將分配給不需要政策支持的、已建立且功能齊全的能源和產品市場。

Only about 10% is earmarked for nascent, lower emissions markets where market forces have yet to fully take hold.

只有約10%被指定用於新興的、低排放市場，這些市場力量尚未完全發揮作用。

The case-in-point is our Baytown low carbon hydrogen project which requires incentives under Section 45V of the Inflation Reduction Act to be economically viable.

我們的例子是貝敦低碳氫化合物項目，該項目需要根據《通貨膨脹削減法》第 45V 條的激勵措施才具有經濟可行性。

We believe these incentives are critical to establishing a fully market based future where hydrogen competes head-to-head with traditional fuels.

我們相信，這些激勵措施對於建立完全市場化的未來至關重要，讓氫氣與傳統燃料正面競爭。

But the end goal is clear, a system where no energy source remains dependent on government subsidies.

但最終目標是明確的，即建立一個不再依賴政府補貼的能源體系。

Just as energy sources should not be supported by governments in perpetuity, they should not be artificially discouraged either.

正如政府不應永遠支持能源發展一樣，政府也不應人為地抑制能源發展。

The prior administration's moratorium on new LNG export facilities and its executive order limiting offshore drilling or policy mistakes that the new administration is right to reverse.

前政府暫停建設新的液化天然氣出口設施，並發布行政命令限制海上鑽井，這些政策都是錯誤的，新政府正確地扭轉了這些錯誤。

Oil and natural gas remain essential to economic growth, jobs, and national security both for ourselves and our allies around the globe.

石油和天然氣對於我們自己以及全球盟友的經濟成長、就業和國家安全仍然至關重要。

Over the longer term to achieve broad decarbonization, government policy should set carbon intensity standards on products.

長遠來看，為了實現廣泛脫碳，政府政策應該對產品設定碳強度標準。

We believe this is the best way to engage the collective efforts of industry and leverage competitive market forces.

我們相信這是調動產業共同努力和利用競爭性市場力量的最佳方式。

To drive further innovation, reduce the most emissions at the lowest cost, policies must remain technology agnostic.

為了推動進一步創新，以最低的成本減少最多的排放，政策必須保持與技術無關。

Government should not pick winners and losers.

政府不應該選擇贏家和輸家。

Intensity standards establish a level playing field and have a strong precedent.

強度標準建立了公平的競爭環境並具有良好的先例。

They are most recently used to successfully and affordably reduce sulfur and marine fuel.

它們最近被用在成功且經濟地減少硫和船用燃料方面。

In closing, I want to say again, how proud I am of the people of ExxonMobil and how pleased I am that we are creating unmatched value for our shareholders.

最後，我想再次說，我為埃克森美孚的員工感到驕傲，我為我們為股東創造無與倫比的價值感到高興。

Compared to the IOCs, over the last five years, we've grown cash flow from operations at a roughly 15% compounded annual growth rate, more than double the closest competitor.

與國際石油公司相比，過去五年來，我們的營運現金流年複合成長率約為 15%，是最接近的競爭對手的兩倍多。

We've distributed more than $125 billion in dividends and buybacks, $30 billion more than the closest competitor.

我們已發放超過 1,250 億美元的股利和回購資金，比最接近的競爭對手多出 300 億美元。

And we delivered a total shareholder return compounded annual growth of 14%, 600 basis points higher than the closest competitor.

我們實現的股東總回報複合年增長率為 14%，比最接近的競爭對手高出 600 個基點。

Looking ahead the value creation arc of the company is equally distinguished.

展望未來，公司的價值創造弧線同樣傑出。

We're going to build an even more advantaged asset portfolio, 60% of our upstream production from advantage assets by 2030.

我們將建立更具優勢的資產組合，到2030年，60%的上游產量將來自優勢資產。

That's nearly the same amount as the next largest IOCs total production.

這幾乎與排名第二的國際石油公司的總產量相同。

We're going to develop an even more profitable product mix with 80% growth of high value product sales and product solutions by 2030.

到 2030 年，我們將開發更具獲利的產品組合，高價值產品銷售額和產品解決方案將成長 80%。

We're going to be an even more efficient operator taking an additional $6 billion in cost out of the business.

我們將成為一個更有效率的營運商，並從業務中額外節省 60 億美元的成本。

We're going to generate even more earnings in cash.

我們將創造更多的現金收益。

On a constant price and margin basis, we're confident we'll deliver [20-30] by 2030, $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash flow, all of which enables us to keep our commitment to sustainable competitive and growing shareholder returns.

在價格和利潤率不變的情況下，我們有信心到 2030 年實現 [20-30] 的利潤增加 200 億美元，現金流增加 300 億美元，所有這些都使我們能夠履行對可持續競爭力和不斷增長的股東回報。

With that, I look forward to your questions.

我期待著您的提問。

Thank you, Darren.

謝謝你，達倫。

Now let's move to our Q&A session.

現在讓我們進入問答環節。

As a reminder, we ask each participant to keep it to just one question.

提醒一下，我們要求每個參與者只提出一個問題。

And with that operator will ask you to please open the line for the first question.

接線生會請您接通電話回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾梅塔 (Neil Mehta)。

Thank you, Darren, good rundown there.

謝謝你，Darren，你的概述很詳細。

The question I had was really around project start-ups and specifically, Guyana.

我的問題實際上是有關項目啟動，特別是圭亞那。

Can you give us a sense of the key milestones you're watching for in '25 at this asset?

您能否向我們介紹一下您在 25 年關注的這項資產的關鍵里程碑？

How it continues to track relative to expectations?

相對於預期它如何繼續追蹤？

And there's been a lot of investor debate following the upstream day about what the long-term capacity of this asset could look like.

在原油上游交易日之後，投資者對該資產的長期產能前景展開了大量爭論。

So any thoughts on terminal plateau would be great.

因此，任何有關終端高原的想法都是很好的。

Yeah, Neil, thanks for the question.

是的，尼爾，謝謝你的提問。

I'd say, as you look across the portfolio of projects that we've got slated for start-up in 2025.

我想說，當你回顧我們計劃在 2025 年啟動的專案組合時。

We feel really good about where they all are.

我們對他們現在的處境感到非常滿意。

The fact that they're tracking consistent with what we've talked about publicly.

事實是，他們的追蹤與我們公開談論的內容一致。

And in fact, my guess is that many of them will come in slightly ahead of that.

事實上，我猜測其中許多企業的收入會略微領先於這個數字。

With respect to Yellowtail specifically, I'd say we really like what we're seeing there.

具體到黃尾魚，我想說我們真的很喜歡我們在那裡看到的東西。

I think that team who is managing the Guyana development continues to demonstrate project after project that you just find new ways to innovate and to overcome the challenges and to deliver these things below budget oftentimes and certainly ahead of schedule.

我認為，管理圭亞那開發專案的團隊透過一個又一個專案不斷證明，他們能夠找到新的方法來創新和克​​服挑戰，並且經常以低於預算的價格、甚至提前完成專案。

My guess will be for Yellowtail that will come in a little better than what we've publicly talked about.

我猜 Yellowtail 的表現會比我們公開談論的更好。

But 3Q '25 is a good number, a good date to be thinking about.

但 25 年第三季是一個好數字，一個值得思考的好日期。

Longer term, I know -- I've been part of the conversation in December about what we project going forward in the capacity versus utilization.

從長遠來看，我知道——我參加了 12 月的討論，討論的是我們對未來產能與利用率的預測。

All I would say is that that's a challenging to project that far in the future.

我只想說，預測那麼遠的未來是一個挑戰。

There's a lot of variables that go into the developments across all of our upstream portfolios.

所有上游投資組合的發展都受到許多變數的影響。

We're going to move from where we're at today of roughly 10 reservoirs to roughly 40 by 2030.

到 2030 年，我們的水庫數量將從目前的約 10 個增加到約 40 個。

A lot of optimization that goes around that, managing those reservoirs, a lot of unknowns.

圍繞著這個問題進行了大量優化，管理這些水庫，還有很多未知數。

Obviously, there's a depletion curve that continues to bring volumes down.

顯然，存在一條消耗曲線，其數量持續下降。

But at the same time, our teams are working hard on infills and keeping the utilization up.

但與此同時，我們的團隊正在努力填充並保持較高的利用率。

And so we've given our best guess or estimate as to where we'll be, but I would tell you that, Neil, myself, all of us frankly, including the team who's managing it, our challenge themselves to make sure that we're fully utilizing those assets.

因此，我們已經給出了最好的猜測或估計，但我想告訴你，尼爾、我自己、我們所有人，包括管理它的團隊，都在挑戰自己，以確保我們正在充分利用這些資產。

And my expectation is as we've demonstrated over the last several years, we'll probably do better than what we're estimating.

我的預期是，正如我們過去幾年所證明的那樣，我們可能會做得比我們預想的更好。

But I think I want to make sure that we're not overpromising and under-delivering.

但我想確保我們不會承諾過多，兌現不足。

And so we've got, I think, a really sound forecast for where those units will be producing.

因此我認為，我們對這些單位的生產地點做出了非常合理的預測。

And again, we're challenging the team and they're challenging themselves to deliver more than that.

我們再次向團隊發起挑戰，他們也在挑戰自己，努力做到更多。

And if I was a betting person, which I am, I would bet they'll do it.

如果我是一個喜歡賭博的人，我就會賭他們會這麼做。

Thank you, Darren.

謝謝你，達倫。

You bet.

當然。

John Royall, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的約翰‧羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I was hoping for an update on your expectations around North American tariffs, assuming those are implemented and assuming they're in place for a material amount of time.

我希望了解您對北美關稅的預期，假設這些關稅已經實施，並假設它們持續相當長一段時間。

You have upstream and downstream assets in Canada, but also downstream assets in the US that could be impacted.

您在加拿大擁有上游和下游資產，但美國的下游資產也可能受到影響。

So how should we think about what that could mean for ExxonMobil overall?

那麼我們該如何看待這對埃克森美孚整體意味著什麼？

Good morning, John, thanks for the question.

早安，約翰，謝謝你的提問。

I'll tell you the way that we're looking at -- obviously, there's a lot of noise and speculation in this space.

我會告訴你我們正在觀察的方式——顯然，這個領域存在著許多噪音和猜測。

And I would put it in the same category as we think about prices and where prices are going.

我會把它和我們考慮價格以及價格走勢的類別放在一起。

At the end of the day, what we can control is our -- how effective and efficient we are as operators, making sure that we're producing highest value products for the kit that we have and efficiently getting it to market.

歸根究底，我們能夠控制的是——我們作為操作員的效率和有效性，確保我們為現有的套件生產出最高價值的產品，並有效率地將其推向市場。

And I think that's going to -- at the end of the day, no matter where the market moves, there's a cost of supply curve all the work we've been doing over the last eight years has been to drive our production to the low end of the cost of supply curve so that we have a significant margin versus the last marginal barrel of production that's required to meet the market demand.

我認為，不管市場如何變動，最終都會有一條供應成本曲線，過去八年來我們一直在努力將產量推向最低水平供應成本曲線的末端，這樣我們與滿足市場需求所需的最後一桶邊際產量相比，具有相當大的利潤。

None of that's going to change with tariffs.

這一切都不會因關稅而改變。

That's all going to get shifted around.

這一切都將改變。

And our view is we're going to continue to be a very cost competitive, low-cost of supply source, and therefore, we'll continue to outperform competition.

我們的觀點是，我們將繼續成為一個極具成本競爭力、低成本的供應源，因此，我們將繼續超越競爭對手。

And that's basically how we're looking at it as kind of wade through the noise that's out there in the media and the press with respect to all the speculation around policy.

這基本上就是我們看待這個問題的方式，就像是在排除媒體和新聞界對政策的所有猜測的干擾一樣。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You Bet.

當然。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to ask about your data center strategy or enabling the expansion of AI in the US.

我想詢問一下你們的資料中心策略或如何推動人工智慧在美國的發展。

Carbon capture, CCS value chain is a key senior advantage for Exxon.

碳捕獲、CCS 價值鍊是埃克森美孚的關鍵高級優勢。

Are you seeing any interest in the market for the low-carbon gas solutions versus just traditional gas power plants?

與傳統燃氣發電廠相比，您是否看到市場對低碳燃氣解決方案感興趣？

How do you think Exxon can bring these solutions to the market?

您認為埃克森美孚如何將這些解決方案推向市場？

And just given the recent news with DeepSeek, are you seeing any change in tone from your conversation with the end customers?

鑑於最近有關 DeepSeek 的新聞，您是否發現與最終客戶的對話基調發生了任何變化？

Yeah, good morning, Betty, thanks for the question.

是的，早上好，貝蒂，謝謝你的提問。

Yeah, I think you hit on really what is the nexus of our strategy with respect to data centers, which is offering decarbonized power for data centers.

是的，我認為你確實觸及了我們資料中心策略的核心，即為資料中心提供脫碳電力。

We're not interested, as we mentioned in December going into a utility business like power generation, utility returns for power generation would not compete in our portfolio, but leveraging the end-to-end system that we have for capturing transporting and storing CO2 is a huge advantage and brings a lot of value for those who are looking to have decarbonized power and to manage their emissions.

正如我們在12 月提到的那樣，我們對進入發電等公用事業業務不感興趣，發電的公用事業回報不會在我們的投資組合中競爭，但利用我們用於捕獲、運輸和儲存二氧化碳的端到端系統對於那些希望獲得脫碳電力並管理排放的人來說，這是一個巨大的優勢並帶來了許多價值。

And I would say that there continues to be a very strong desire for many of these customers to build data centers that are decarbonized.

我想說的是，許多客戶仍然強烈希望建立脫碳資料中心。

And so a lot of interest in that space.

因此，人們對該領域很感興趣。

We're having a lot of continuing conversations.

我們正在進行大量持續的對話。

We have sites that have been selected.

我們已經選定了一些站點。

We've got -- we've been doing the work to decarbonize our natural gas, which would be an important feed in a low-carbon data center.

我們一直在致力於天然氣脫碳，這將成為低碳資料中心的重要能源。

And of course, we've got the work we've been doing with our partners around carbon capture and storage, and we've got the green line.

當然，我們與合作夥伴在碳捕獲和儲存方面開展了合作，並且制定了綠線。

And so we've got all the pieces.

這樣我們就得到了所有的碎片。

Today, we've been in early engineering for these centers, so we know exactly what it's going to take.

今天，我們已經開始為這些中心進行早期工程設計，因此我們確切地知道需要做什麼。

We've got a very, as you know, a large and successful project organization.

如你所知，我們有一個非常龐大且成功的專案組織。

This is right in their wheelhouse.

這正處於他們的掌控之中。

And so we're acting as a bit of an integrator in the early days to accelerate the schedules, which is really important to many of the customers.

因此，我們在早期扮演著整合商的角色來加快進度，這對許多客戶來說非常重要。

Our view is we'll bring this on faster than anybody else in the industry, and we'll certainly bring it on faster than any other opportunities for decarbonization.

我們的觀點是，我們將比業內任何其他人更快地實現這一目標，而且我們肯定會比任何其他脫碳機會更快地實現這一目標。

My guess would be, depending on how the discussions go with customers that we could get a site up and going by 2028 and then have it decarbonized into 2029.

我的猜測是，這取決於與客戶的討論進展情況，我們可以在 2028 年之前建立一個站點並運行，然後在 2029 年實現脫碳。

I would say it's rough order of how to think about that.

我想說這是思考這個問題的大致順序。

But we've -- we're well into the development phase.

但我們已經進入了開發階段。

Obviously, a lot of dynamics here, a lot of moving parts and variables in large part on the customer side.

顯然，這裡存在著許多動態因素、許多活動部件和變量，很大程度上取決於客戶方面。

So we are available.

所以我們可以。

We want to make sure that we've got an offering that meets their needs and when they're ready for them, we'll be ready.

我們希望確保我們提供的產品能夠滿足他們的需求，並且當他們做好準備時，我們也會做好準備。

With respect to DeepSeek, I would say that hasn't impacted the conversations to date that we're having with our customers.

關於 DeepSeek，我想說這並沒有影響我們與客戶迄今為止的對話。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的德文·麥克德莫特 (Devin McDermott)。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So I wanted to come back to Neal's earlier question on growth.

所以我想回到尼爾之前關於成長的問題。

There's a lot in the queue in the near term beyond just Guyana.

除圭亞那外，近期還有很多國家正在等待批准。

You highlighted 10 start-ups with over $3 billion of earnings, earnings that also hold the current margins, and I appreciate that guidance.

您重點介紹了 10 家盈利超過 30 億美元的新創公司，這些公司的盈利也保持了當前的利潤率，我很欣賞這一指導。

But I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail on the timing for some of the key projects in that growth as we move through 2025?

但我想知道，您是否可以提供一些有關 2025 年期間一些關鍵增長項目的時間表的更多細節？

How they impact earnings through the year?

它們如何影響全年的收入？

And then when you expect to get to that full over $3 billion run rate?

那麼，您預計什麼時候能夠達到超過 30 億美元的完全運行率？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

Devin, thanks for the question.

德文，謝謝你的提問。

I think you're right, it's going to be a busy year with a lot of startups.

我想你是對的，由於有很多新創公司成立，今年將會是個繁忙的一年。

I may just kind of walk through the key project that we've been talking with you all about, and start with the China Chemical Complex.

我可能只是介紹我們一直與你們討論的重點項目，首先從中國化學工業綜合體開始。

We mechanically completed that at the end of last year.

我們在去年年底就機械地完成了這一點。

We've been going through startup sequencing and making sure that each piece of that kit is working as designed, and we'll bring all that integrated together, and my expectation is we'll get it started up here sometime in the first quarter, back into the first quarter.

我們一直在進行啟動排序，確保套件的每個部分都按設計運行，然後我們會把所有組件整合在一起，我預計我們會在第一季的某個時候啟動它。

In [Fawley], we're building a conversion facility to produce low-sulfur diesel.

在[福利]，我們正在建造一個轉化設施，生產低硫柴油。

My expectation is we'll have that in early second quarter.

我預計我們將在第二季初實現這一目標。

We've got two advanced recycling units that we are building at Baytown, so despite the Attorney General's accusations that these are myths, we've actually got two more units starting up, one in the second quarter and one in the fourth quarter, which continues to see a lot of interest by consumers for recycled product, and so that capacity is desperately needed to meet that customer demand.

我們在貝敦建造了兩個先進的回收裝置，儘管司法部長指責這些都是神話，但我們實際上又有兩個裝置投入使用，一個在第二季度，一個在第四季度，這消費者對再生產品的興趣持續高漲，因此迫切需要增加產能來滿足顧客需求。

We've got all the modules that we need for the Strathcona Renewable Diesel, looking to basically try to get that started up here in the second quarter, expect that to happen.

我們已經獲得了 Strathcona 再生柴油所需的所有模組，希望能夠在第二季度啟動該項目，預計這將會實現。

The other real big project that we've got is the Singapore Resit Upgrade Project.

我們的另一個真正的大項目是新加坡 Resit 升級項目。

That is new-to-the-world technology.

這對世界來說是一項新技術。

Feel really good about the progress we've made there.

對我們在那裡取得的進展感到非常高興。

We've got all the vessels loaded with catalyst.

我們已經將所有容器裝滿了催化劑。

Some of that catalyst is proprietary.

其中一些催化劑是專有的。

The largest catalyst load we've ever done, and we did that successfully, and expect to be mechanically complete sometime here in the first quarter and get into the start-up and sequencing and expect to be up and running kind of the back end of the second quarter, I would hope.

這是我們迄今為止完成的最大催化劑負載，我們成功做到了這一點，預計在第一季的某個時候機械完成，然後進入啟動和排序階段，預計在後端啟動和運行。季度。

Proxima, second quarter, is when we expect to get some more capacity on, and then going forward in time, a lot more capacity coming on as we continue to work with customers and sell into what we think is some very attractive applications where there's really good demand, so continue to see good progress there, and that project is coming along.

Proxima，在第二季度，我們預計會獲得更多的產能，然後隨著時間的推移，隨著我們繼續與客戶合作並銷售我們認為非常有吸引力的應用程序，我們將獲得更多的產能。需求良好，因此繼續看到良好的進展，並且該專案正在推進中。

Bacalhau, I expect sometime in 2025, probably closer to the third quarter.

我預計 Bacalhau 會在 2025 年的某個時候出現，可能接近第三季。

Yellowtail, third quarter, and then, as we've said with Golden Pass, probably the back end of 2025, expect to see first LNG and mechanically complete kind of around mid-year is the time frame that we run through all of those.

Yellowtail，在第三季度，然後，正如我們在Golden Pass 中所說的那樣，可能是在2025 年末，預計將看到第一批LNG 和機械完成，大約在年中是我們完成所有這些的時間範圍。

And then, as we mentioned, on a constant price basis, which we provide for you guys to kind of see the underlying fundamentals of these projects, expect to see more than $3 billion of improved earnings once they're up and running full, which we're considering in 2026.

然後，正如我們所提到的那樣，在不變的價格基礎上，我們為你們提供了這些項目的基本面，預計一旦這些項目全面投入運營，收益將增加 30 多億美元，這我們考慮的是2026年。

And at the same time, you look at the current price margin environment that we're in, which is obviously pretty challenging.

同時，看看我們目前所處的價格利潤環境，這顯然相當具有挑戰性。

We're still, as you rack up all those projects, still about $3 billion of earnings contributions.

當我們將所有這些項目累積起來時，我們仍然有大約 30 億美元的收益貢獻。

And that, frankly, the goal is to make sure that these projects are resilient to the bottom of the cycle conditions, so feel pretty good about that portfolio of projects and where we are.

坦白說，我們的目標是確保這些項目能夠抵禦週期底部的條件，因此我們對這些項目組合以及我們所處的狀況感到非常滿意。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for all the detail.

謝謝你的詳細說明。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Hi, everybody.

大家好。

Thank you for having my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks for all the details, Darren.

謝謝你提供的所有詳細信息，Darren。

I think you missed out your 25% of (inaudible) in your startup list, but who's counting?

我覺得你遺漏了創業清單中的 25%（聽不清楚），但誰在乎呢？

My question specifically is about -- I hate to be predictable -- it's about your cash distribution philosophy, buybacks versus dividends.

我的問題具體是關於──我不想被預測──這是關於你的現金分配理念，回購與分紅。

And I want to kind of position it like this.

我想將它定位成如下的樣子。

If I look at buybacks last year and the $20 billion commitment for the next two years, you could make a case that you're basically buying back the shares that you issued for Pioneer.

如果我看去年的回購情況以及未來兩年 200 億美元的承諾，你就可以證明你基本上是在回購為先鋒公司發行的股票。

And I know it's not as cut and dried as that, but I'm curious, with the inflection in free cash flow that you clearly have, your capacity for dividend growth is substantially greater than the 4% bump that you gave to shareholders now for several years running.

我知道事情沒有那麼簡單，但我很好奇，鑑於你們自由現金流的明顯變化，你們的股息增長能力遠高於你們現在給股東的 4% 的增長。

Are you waiting to buy in the Pioneer stock before you step up that dividend, is my question.

我的問題是，您是否在等待購買先鋒公司的股票然後再增加股息？

And so that's really, Doug, a coincidence, right, that we moved up our buyback pace in conjunction with Pioneer, obviously because Pioneer was giving us incremental cash flow to be able to do that.

所以，道格，這真的是一個巧合，對吧，我們與先鋒公司聯合加快了回購步伐，顯然是因為先鋒公司給了我們增量現金流，使我們能夠做到這一點。

So that moved up our pace from $17.5 billion to $20 billion annually, and we've guided that we expect to be at that pace for this year and next year, assuming, you know, continued reasonable market conditions.

因此，我們的擴張速度從每年 175 億美元提高到了 200 億美元，我們預計今年和明年的擴張速度將保持這一水平，前提是市場條件持續保持合理。

But it is, I would say, just a coincidence that that $20 billion pace means that we'll essentially buy back the shares from Pioneer over a three year period.

但我想說，這只是一個巧合，200 億美元的速度意味著我們將在三年內從先鋒公司回購股票。

If we go to look at our philosophy overall in terms of the dividend, we have been clear that we look at that dividend and we want it to be sustainable.

如果我們從股息的角度來整體審視我們的理念，我們很清楚，我們重視股息，並且希望它是可持續的。

We want it to be competitive and we want it to be growing.

我們希望它具有競爭力並且不斷成長。

And we are always looking at it through that lens.

我們始終透過這個視角來看它。

The share buyback program as a secondary benefit actually reduces the overall dividend in absolute terms as we continue to take shares out of the market.

作為次要福利的股票回購計劃實際上從絕對值上減少了整體股息，因為我們繼續從市場上撤出股票。

But that's how we look at the dividend philosophy.

但這就是我們看待股利哲學的方式。

And as you know, we've increased the annual dividend for 42 years running, which is a claim only 4% of companies in the S&P 500 can make.

如您所知，我們已經連續 42 年增加年度股息，而標準普爾 500 指數中只有 4% 的公司可以做到這一點。

And so we're very focused on and understand the importance of that dividend for our shareholders.

因此，我們非常關注並了解股利對股東的重要性。

And we also realize compared to other companies, we have a quite large retail shareholder base that are very focused on the dividend.

我們也意識到，與其他公司相比，我們擁有相當龐大的散戶股東群體，他們非常關注股息。

And so that's how we look at and evaluate things.

這就是我們看待和評價事物的方式。

I appreciate the answer.

我很感激你的回答。

I would just footnote that dividend growth per share seems to be the driver or at least the mechanism for market recognition of value.

我只想指出，每股股息成長似乎是市場認可價值的驅動力，或至少是機制。

So that's why we came in this issue.

這就是我們討論這個問題的原因。

But I appreciate the answers.

但我很感激這些答案。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，道格。

Stephen Richardson, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬理查森 (Stephen Richardson)，Evercore ISI。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I was wondering, Darren, now that we've had a little bit of time to sit with the corporate plan update and all the visibility you provided out till 2030, and maybe this is a beyond 2025 question, but it seems to us that internal to Exxon, the biggest risk to hitting that return on capital employed target seems to be on the CapEx line.

Darren，我想知道，現在我們有一點時間來研究公司計劃更新和你提供的所有到 2030 年的可見性，也許這是一個 2025 年以後的問題，但在我們看來，內部對於埃克森美孚來說，實現資本使用報酬率目標的最大風險似乎在於資本支出線上。

And so I was wondering if you could kind of talk about the forward look on CapEx upside downside risks, any proportion that you think is market indexed versus contractual.

所以我想知道您是否可以談談對資本支出上行下行風險的前瞻性展望，以及您認為與市場指數掛鉤的比例與合約指數掛鉤的比例。

And it would just seem to us like a lot of the things you're doing the next couple of years are replication of things that you've already executed in the last number of years.

在我們看來，未來幾年你們所做的很多事情都是過去幾年已經做過的事情的重複。

You know, Guyana, Permian, those types of things.

你知道，圭亞那、二疊紀，諸如此類的東西。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, thank you, Steve.

是的，謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Appreciate the question.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。

As we talked about as part of the corporate plan presentation in December, if you look at the CapEx profile, a large portion of it is kind of dealing with, as you say, the things that we've already demonstrated we know how to do.

正如我們在 12 月的公司計劃介紹中談到的那樣，如果你看一下資本支出概況，你會發現其中很大一部分是處理我們已經證明我們知道如何做的事情。

And frankly, the CapEx that we're spending in that space is fairly flat as we continue to grow volumes in the cash flow and earnings that go with it.

坦白說，隨著現金流和收益的不斷增加，我們在該領域的資本支出相當平穩。

So as we're advancing, I'd say the upgrade of our existing portfolio to advantaged volumes, we're doing that with a fairly stable and flat CapEx profile, which we feel really good about.

因此，隨著我們的進步，我想說我們將現有的投資組合升級到優勢規模，我們透過相當穩定且平坦的資本支出狀況來做到這一點，我們對此感到非常滿意。

And that reflects the continued efficiency that we're finding as we apply technologies.

這反映了我們在應用技術時發現的持續效率。

And my expectation is as we go forward, we're learning a ton.

我的期望是，隨著我們不斷前進，我們將會學到很多東西。

Even as we bring in new technology and begin to apply it, we're learning on that technology and finding additional opportunities.

當我們引進新技術並開始應用它時，我們也在學習該技術並尋找更多機會。

So I think we're on a really good trajectory with respect to continuing to grow advantaged volumes and continuing to drive capital efficiency.

因此，我認為我們在繼續增加優勢產量和繼續提高資本效率方面正處於良好的軌道上。

And so we've laid out our best estimate now.

現在我們已經給出了最好的估計。

But again, what I would say is I really like what we're finding as we deploy these technologies and see the improvements.

但我想說的是，我真的很喜歡我們在部署這些技術時發現的結果以及看到的改進。

And then on top of that, we've got the lower emissions spend that we've laid out and the new products that we're looking to, new markets, new businesses that we're looking to establish with Proxima Resin System and the Carbon Material Ventures, which, again, we see really, really high levels of interest from customers.

除此之外，我們還制定了降低排放的支出計劃，並計劃推出新產品、新市場、新業務，希望與 Proxima Resin System 合作建立新業務， Carbon Material Ventures，我們再次看到客戶對其表現出了非常高的興趣。

We're continuing with working with them in trials and testing out the product.

我們將繼續與他們合作試驗和測試產品。

We feel good about what we're seeing there.

我們對那裡所見的景象感到很滿意。

Those investments, which is really the growth that you're seeing with our capital spend, are all conditioned on making sure that those products, the value proposition that we believe we have there, is realized and compensated and generate high returns for those investments.

這些投資，實際上就是您在我們的資本支出中看到的成長，都以確保這些產品（我們認為我們擁有的價值主張）得到實現和補償並為這些投資產生高回報為條件。

So I'd say those are less -- those are contingent.

所以我想說這些都不太重要──這些都是偶然的。

We feel today pretty confident that we will pursue those investments because of what we're seeing today.

根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們非常有信心進行這些投資。

But we're not going to go ahead with them until we're convinced that the value is there and we'll realize that value and the investments and generate an advantage return.

但我們不會繼續進行這些操作，除非我們確信其中存在價值，並且能夠實現該價值和投資並產生優勢回報。

So that's how we're thinking about it.

這就是我們的想法。

Similar with the low carbon, we've said before where we need policy support, that policy needs to be in place, and we need to have customers who are signing up for the offtakes, and that work continues.

與低碳類似，我們之前說過，我們需要政策支持，政策需要到位，我們需要有簽約承購的客戶，這項工作還要繼續。

And so there's -- I'd say on top of the steady base that we've established here in 2024, all the additional CapEx will basically be conditioned on ensuring that we get good returns on that incremental investment in these new businesses and new opportunities.

因此，我想說，在我們 2024 年建立的穩定基礎上，所有額外的資本支出基本上都將以確保我們在這些新業務和新機會上的增量投資獲得良好回報為條件。

Anything to add, Kathryn?

還有什麼要補充嗎，凱瑟琳？

So the other thing I would just say is we have a huge competitive advantage in our global projects organization.

我想說的另一件事是，我們在全球專案組織中擁有巨大的競爭優勢。

So you're talking about, hey, one of the things as we look out and we think about continuing to improve your return on capital employed and the new projects that are coming online, that gives us great confidence.

所以你說，嘿，當我們關注的事情之一就是我們考慮繼續提高你的資本使用回報率和即將上線的新項目時，這給了我們很大的信心。

And the fact that they continue, especially in our base business, to figure out how to get more and more efficient.

事實上，他們一直在不斷探索如何提高效率，尤其是在我們的基礎業務領域。

So Guyana would be a great example of that, right?

那麼圭亞那就是一個很好的例子，對嗎？

We get more and more learnings in terms of looking at those reservoirs and exactly what the kit is that we need in order to optimize production, I think is a significant advantage for us.

我們在觀察這些油藏以及優化生產所需的工具方面獲得了越來越多的了解，我認為這對我們來說是一個顯著的優勢。

If you look at the biggest risks, I mean, what you spend in bringing a project online definitely has some risk associated with it.

如果你看看最大的風險，我的意思是，你在將專案上線時所花費的資金肯定會帶來一定的風險。

And again, I think we have a competitive advantage there.

而且我認為我們在這方面具有競爭優勢。

What you get out of the ground, right, understanding that I think is really critical.

我認為，了解你從地面得到了什麼，是的，這一點非常關鍵。

And the Permian would be a great example of that.

二疊紀就是一個很好的例子。

The synergies we're driving in Pioneer as we look at recovery rates, as we look at implementing new technology, like a different approach to profit, I think those all give us really significant confidence in our ability to continue to improve overall capital return.

當我們考慮回收率、實施新技術以及採用不同的獲利方法時，我們在先鋒公司推動的協同效應我認為所有這些都讓我們對我們繼續提高整體資本回報率的能力充滿信心。

We have an advantaged set of projects.

我們擁有一批優勢項目。

It puts us in a very differentiated position relative to other competitors.

這使我們相對於其他競爭對手處於非常不同的地位。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

You have two major LNG projects coming online and are a major seller of LNG already.

你們有兩個主要的液化天然氣項目上線，並且已經是液化天然氣的主要銷售商。

You've also signed some contracts to buy LNG from third parties that may now, kind of with the LNG permit ban being lifted, have a better chance of coming online later in the decade.

您還簽署了一些從第三方購買液化天然氣的合同，隨著液化天然氣許可證禁令的解除，這些合約可能在未來十年內有更好的機會上線。

Can you give more color on your LNG contracting strategy from here and how you see the LNG market in the medium term, oversupplied or not?

您能否詳細介紹一下您的液化天然氣承包策略，以及您如何看待中期液化天然氣市場供應過剩與否？

Sure, thanks for the question.

當然，謝謝你的提問。

So I think as a general context, I'd say as you look forward, we continue to see a really healthy demand and important role for LNG around the world as we go out into the future and you see economies grow and people's standards of living improve.

因此，我認為，從總體上看，展望未來，我們將繼續看到全球對液化天然氣的需求非常健康，其重要性也越來越高，未來經濟成長，人民生活水準提高提升。

And as countries around the world look to decarbonize and back out, coal LNG is going to play a really important role.

隨著世界各國尋求脫碳並退出，煤炭液化天然氣將發揮真正重要的作用。

So that broader theme we see continuing to play out well into the 2050 timeframe.

因此，我們看到這個更廣泛的主題將在 2050 年繼續發揮作用。

So we think LNG is going to be an important product and continuing to find ways to bring on advantage supply of LNG is pretty critical to our strategy.

因此，我們認為液化天然氣將成為重要產品，繼續尋找方法帶來液化天然氣的優勢供應對我們的策略至關重要。

As you know, the market today in these projects are underpinned by long-term sales contracts.

如您所知，目前這些項目的市場是由長期銷售合約所支撐的。

We continue to progress those contracts in conjunction with the projects that we're developing.

我們將繼續結合我們正在開發的項目來推進這些合約。

That continues to be the foundation for the LNG market.

這仍然是液化天然氣市場的基礎。

And so a majority of the production that we are looking to bring online will be underpinned by long-term contracts, which are linked to crude pricing.

因此，我們希望實現的大部分生產將以與原油價格掛鉤的長期合約為基礎。

And that, I think, reflects really the demand that you're seeing from customers out there and the need for continued gas.

我認為這確實反映了客戶的需求以及對持續天然氣的需求。

There's a portion that we're leaving uncontracted to support the work that we're doing with our trading organization and growing that business.

我們有一部分未簽訂合同，以支持我們與貿易組織合作的工作並發展該業務。

And as that market grows, becomes more liquid, we continue to see opportunities to optimize around that market and extract some additional value through trading.

隨著市場不斷發展，流動性越來越強，我們不斷看到優化市場並透過交易獲取額外價值的機會。

And so we're making sure that we've got volume available for that.

因此我們要確保有足夠的可用容量。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.

伯恩斯坦研究公司 (Bernstein Research) 的鮑伯‧布拉克特 (Bob Brackett)。

Good morning.

早安.

A bit of a follow-up on the LNG theme, but more specifically around the FID cadence this year and next.

這是對 LNG 主題的一點後續關注，但更具體地圍繞今年和明年的 FID 節奏。

We've got Papua LNG and PNG.

我們有巴布亞液化天然氣和巴布亞紐幾內亞。

You've got Rovuma and maybe even Coral North in Mozambique.

你有魯伍馬，甚至可能是莫三比克的北珊瑚島。

Those are very different investments than adding another well in the Permian.

這些投資與在二疊紀盆地中再開一口井的投資截然不同。

What do you need to see in terms of maybe returns and certainty and maybe even local situation to give you the confidence to move forward on those multi-decadal assets?

您需要看到什麼樣的回報、確定性，甚至是當地情況，才能讓您有信心繼續推動這些跨越數十年的資產？

Good morning, Bob.

早安，鮑伯。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

You're right that each of these projects are somewhat unique.

您說得對，每個項目都有其獨特之處。

However, what I would tell you is the constant here, in terms of how we're evaluating and deciding to go forward, is making sure that they're low-cost to supply, so they're competitive supply sources in a market, so that as we move forward, irrespective of how the market develops in the highs and the lows, that we have an advantaged cost to supply vis a vis the rest of the supply curve in some of our competitors.

然而，我想告訴你的是，就我們如何評估和決定前進而言，這裡的不變之處在於確保它們的供應成本低，因此它們是市場上有競爭力的供應來源，因此，隨著我們不斷前進，無論市場如何發展，無論是高潮還是低谷，與我們的一些競爭對手的供應曲線相比，我們的供應成本始終具有優勢。

That's a critical component.

這是一個關鍵組成部分。

With that comes then an advantaged project and advantaged returns.

隨之而來的是優勢項目和優勢回報。

That is fundamental to what we're looking at with each of these.

這對於我們研究的每一個問題來說都是至關重要的。

As Kathy mentioned earlier in the call, the project organization that we had brings a huge advantage in this space to help us drive these projects to the left-hand side of the cost to supply curve.

正如凱西早些時候在電話會議中提到的，我們的專案組織在這個領域帶來了巨大的優勢，幫助我們將這些專案推向成本供應曲線的左側。

I'd also add that our technology organization that we've established and the focus that they're putting on in working with the project's organization is another advantage that helps drive that to the left-hand side of the cost to supply curve.

我還要補充一點，我們建立的技術組織以及他們在與專案組織合作時所關注的重點是另一個優勢，有助於推動成本供應曲線的左側。

That's, I would say, the primary variables at play here.

我想說，這就是這裡起作用的主要變數。

Obviously, we look at the stability of the area that we're in.

顯然，我們關注的是所在地區的穩定性。

We've got a really long history of managing that exposure and risk.

我們在管理這種風險敞口和風險方面有著悠久的歷史。

We feel pretty good around what we're seeing in the local communities that we're looking at and the steps that we can take to make sure that we can develop a long-term successful business there in a stable environment.

我們對所關注的當地社區的現狀以及我們可以採取的措施感到非常滿意，以確保我們能夠在穩定的環境中發展長期成功的業務。

I think that piece of it, while certainly something that we need to manage and be aware of, isn't impacting, isn't the largest variable with respect to how we think about moving forward on these projects.

我認為，雖然這部分內容確實是我們需要管理和注意的，但它並不會產生影響，也不是我們如何考慮推進這些專案的最大變數。

Very clear.

非常清楚。

We should think 2025 for PNG and '26 for Rovuma still?

我們是否仍應認為巴布亞紐幾內亞是 2025 年，魯伍馬是 2026 年？

We're working towards the 2026 timeframe in the Rovuma and PNG.

我們正在努力在魯伍馬和巴布亞紐幾內亞實現 2026 年的目標。

We're continuing to work through a target.

我們正在繼續努力實現目標。

Hopefully, we'll have something near the back end of this year for FID.

希望我們能在今年年底前就 FID 做出一些安排。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Neal Dingmann, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Morning.

早晨。

Thanks for the time.

感謝您的時間。

Darren, my question is around your long-term plan.

達倫，我的問題是關於你的長期計劃。

I believe you all have suggested about growing the earnings around $20 billion in cash flow by an additional $30 billion by 2030.

我相信大家都建議到 2030 年將現金流收益增加 200 億美元左右，並額外增加 300 億美元。

I think that goes along with the US production, I think, doubling or severely increasing.

我認為這與美國產量翻倍或大幅增加相一致。

I'm just wondering, in order to achieve this, I'm just wondering what type of levels are you all assuming on broad strokes for annual capital spend and OpEx during this period in order to achieve it?

我只是想知道，為了實現這一目標，我只是想知道你們都大致假設這段期間的年度資本支出和營運支出達到什麼樣的水平才能實現這一目標？

I'm just wondering, like, directionally, what are you assuming?

我只是想知道，從方向上看，您假設什麼？

Sure.

當然。

So, I'll start with capital because we gave guidance at our corporate plan.

因此，我將從資本開始，因為我們在公司計劃中給出了指導。

You know, this coming year in 2025, we said we expect cash capex to be between $27 billion and $29 billion.

你知道，我們說過，預計 2025 年現金資本支出將在 270 億美元至 290 億美元之間。

And then between 2026 and 2030, that number is $28 billion to $33 billion.

而在 2026 年至 2030 年間，這個數字將達到 280 億美元至 330 億美元。

And then if you just think about expenses, obviously, we're growing, and we're growing across our business.

如果你只考慮開支，顯然我們正在成長，我們的業務也在成長。

That is going to have growth expense associated with it.

這將產生與之相關的成長費用。

And some of the offset to that is driving significant structural cost reductions.

而部分抵銷作用則推動了結構性成本的大幅降低。

And so, to date, since 2019, we're at a little over $12 billion in terms of structural cost reductions.

因此，到目前為止，自 2019 年以來，我們的結構性成本削減已略高於 120 億美元。

And we said between here and 2030, we expect to get that number up to $18 billion.

我們預計從現在到 2030 年，這一數字將達到 180 億美元。

So, kind of an additional $6 billion in structural cost savings to help to offset, just the cost of that growth overall, and obviously, a little bit of inflation.

因此，額外的 60 億美元結構性成本節約有助於抵消整體成長的成本，顯然還有一點點通貨膨脹。

And the last thing I would say on that topic is we have a global procurement organization, as we talked about, the Global Projects Organization, working pretty hard to make sure that we're bringing kind of the full scale and the manner in which we integrate our business kind of to bear as we procure the different products and services that we procure.

關於這個主題，我要說的最後一件事是，我們有一個全球採購組織，也就是我們之前談到的全球專案組織，它正在努力確保我們能夠全面、及時地整合我們的業務，以承擔我們採購的不同產品和服務的責任。

So, they're doing quite a good job, as they look to help us hold down expenses.

所以，他們做得相當不錯，因為他們希望幫助我們控制開支。

Yeah, and maybe just to build on Kathryn's point, if you look at where we were in 2019, we challenged the organization to pay for the growth to make sure that as we were growing and adding some of those additional expenses associated with new facilities, new production, that we offset that through our structural cost reductions.

是的，也許只是為了延續凱瑟琳的觀點，如果你看看我們在 2019 年的情況，我們要求組織支付增長費用，以確保隨著我們的發展和增加與新設施相關的一些額外費用，新產品，我們透過結構性成本削減來抵銷這一影響。

If you look at where we were in 2019 and where we ended 2024, not only have we offset all the additional cost of the growth, we offset all the inflation and had a further reduction of about $1 billion and $0.5 billion.

如果您回顧 2019 年的情況以及 2024 年的情況，我們不僅抵消了成長帶來的所有額外成本，還抵消了所有通貨膨脹，並且進一步減少了約 10 億美元和 5 億美元。

So, I think we've demonstrated the ability to both grow the business and grow the value while reducing cost.

因此，我認為我們已經證明了在降低成本的同時發展業務和增加價值的能力。

I think that is a very unique challenge and I think a great testament to the work that this organization has been doing to create value out there.

我認為這是一個非常獨特的挑戰，也是對該組織為創造價值所做工作的極大證明。

The only other point I would make is not only do we have really solid plans to 2030, the new markets and new businesses that we're starting don't really start to move the needle until we're beyond that 2030 timeframe.

我要說的另一點是，我們不僅有非常完善的 2030 年計劃，而且我們正在啟動的新市場和新業務直到 2030 年後才真正開始產生影響。

What I'm excited about is not only the fidelity that we have in terms of how we get to 2030 and that 2030 objective that we've talked about, but also that we've established a foundation that gives us a platform for growing well into the future in markets that are decoupled from the commodity price cycle.

讓我感到興奮的是，我們不僅對如何實現 2030 年目標和我們討論過的 2030 年目標充滿信心，而且我們已經建立了一個基礎，為我們良好的發展提供了平台與大宗商品價格週期脫鉤的市場的未來。

That's pretty exciting for our company.

對我們公司來說這真是令人興奮。

Well said.

說得好。

Thanks, Darren.

謝謝，達倫。

Thanks, Kathryn.

謝謝，凱瑟琳。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Good morning.

早安.

Maybe to take a slightly different tack here on some of the policy changes, like you mentioned at the beginning of the call, Darren, some favorable changes.

也許對一些政策變化採取稍微不同的策略，就像您在通話開始時提到的那樣，達倫，一些有利的變化。

One of the other ones that's percolating a little bit in the executive order was for the EPA to take a look at the endangerment finding on CO2.

該行政命令中正在醞釀的另一項內容是要求環保署審查有關二氧化碳的危害結果。

I know there's a lot of ways CO2 is approached in terms of what's in the IRA and stuff, but if we were to see a change in federal government regulations on CO2, how do you think about that affecting some of the decisions you're making on the renewable and low-carbon investment approaches here?

我知道在 IRA 等方面有很多處理二氧化碳的方法，但如果聯邦政府對二氧化碳的監管發生變化，您認為這會對您做出的一些決定產生什麼影響您如何看待這裡的可再生和低碳投資方式？

Good morning, Roger.

早安，羅傑。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Let me just start with the fundamentals of how we think about this stuff, because our work in the low-carbon solutions business is reflective of not any specific policy that's existing.

讓我先從我們對這些問題的基本看法開始，因為我們在低碳解決方案業務方面的工作並不反映現有的任何具體政策。

In fact, we put that business together and started working on it well in advance of the IRA and some of the policy that the Biden administration brought forward.

事實上，我們在愛爾蘭共和軍和拜登政府提出的一些政策之前就已經整合了這項業務並開始開始工作。

We focused instead on what we recognize is a need to continue to supply the energy sources and products that the world desperately needs to grow and for people's prosperity to improve, but at the same time reduce emissions.

相反，我們專注於我們認識到需要繼續提供世界發展和人民繁榮所迫切需要的能源和產品，但同時減少排放。

I would say as a company, we recognize the need for society to reduce emissions in a thoughtful, constructive way.

我想說，作為一家公司，我們認識到社會需要以深思熟慮、建設性的方式減少排放。

What we're trying to do is offer up a skill set and a capability set that can help accomplish that.

我們正在嘗試提供一套可以幫助實現這一目標的技能和能力。

That's the long-term objective here.

這是我們的長期目標。

Putting in place the foundations for an approach that makes sense, that leverages our key competitive advantages and affordably reduces emissions while we continue to meet the needs for our products is part of the strategy.

該策略的一部分是建立合理的方法基礎，利用我們的關鍵競爭優勢，以可承受的成本減少排放，同時繼續滿足我們產品的需求。

Frankly, we're demonstrating the ability to do that and to pay for it and to generate returns at the same time.

坦白說，我們正在展示這樣做的能力，並同時支付費用和產生回報。

This and equation is, we believe, a real thing and that people should be focused on doing it all.

我們相信，這個等式是真實存在的，人們應該集中精力做好這一切。

That's what we're trying to do.

這正是我們正在努力做的事情。

I would say that's the foundation.

我想說這就是基礎。

That's how we think about it.

我們就是這樣想的。

We recognize the demand for the reduction and the intensity of the focus on that may vary as you move across different political regimes and move around the world and we'll move up and down with time, but the fundamentals, we believe, are there.

我們認識到，隨著不同政治體制和世界各地的變化，削減開支的需求和關注可能會有所不同，而且會隨著時間的推移而起伏不定，但我們相信，基本面是存在的。

That's what we're focused on is the long-term game here and making sure that what we bring forward in terms of a solution is cost efficient and very effective and that's how we're looking at it.

我們關注的是長期博弈，並確保我們提出的解決方案具有成本效益且非常有效，這就是我們看待它的方式。

Frankly, from what we've seen so far, I think we've got an advantage with respect to where we're at and looking at those opportunities and we've got an advantage with our capabilities and with the facilities that we've brought on so far and the ones that we're developing.

坦白說，從我們目前所看到的情況來看，我認為我們在當前位置和尋找這些機會方面具有優勢，我們在能力和設施方面也具有優勢我們已經提出的以及正在開發的。

We feel good about that.

我們對此感到很高興。

The only thing I would add is obviously the new administration is focused on trying to streamline regulation and looking at how that can open things up for business.

我唯一想補充的是，新政府顯然致力於簡化監管，並研究如何為企業提供便利。

When we look at, just as an example, looking to permanently sequester CO2, getting that permitting has been a long process.

舉個例子，當我們尋求永久封存二氧化碳時，獲得許可是一個漫長的過程。

It's just one area of many that you can look at across the industry to say, what things can be done to ease regulation so that business can get done more quickly, projects can get put in place more quickly.

這只是整個行業中你可以關注的眾多領域之一，我們可以採取哪些措施來放鬆監管，以便更快地完成業務，更快地完成專案。

We look forward to continuing to discuss those things with the new administration.

我們期待與新政府繼續討論這些事情。

The good news, Roger, is we've got flexibility here so we can adjust as we move forward and respond to some of the changes that we see.

羅傑，好消息是我們在這裡有靈活性，所以我們可以在前進的過程中進行調整，並對我們看到的一些變化做出反應。

Appreciate that.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, Darren, you guys clearly have an expertise in the deep water, in your success, whether, say, two decades ago in Angola or recently in Ghana.

早安，達倫，你們這些人顯然擁有深水領域的專業知識，並取得了成功，無論是二十年前在安哥拉，還是最近在加納。

But one deep water area that you are noticeable missing is the Gulf of Mexico.

但你明顯忽略了一個深水區，那就是墨西哥灣。

You really, relative to the size of the company, you're really small.

相對於公司的規模來說，你們確實很小。

I'm trying to understand that.

我正在嘗試去理解這一點。

Is it because when you guys looking at that, you don't like about the cost structure there or you don't like about the regulatory environment or you don't like about the geologies?

是因為當你們看到這一點時，你們不喜歡那裡的成本結構，或者你們不喜歡那裡的監管環境，或者你們不喜歡那裡的地質條件？

And as such that with the new administration, the approach there, is that going to change the way that how you look at that basin?

那麼，新政府採取的方法是否會改變您對該盆地的看法？

Yeah.

是的。

Good morning, Paul.

早安，保羅。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

You're right that in terms of as you look around the world, our presence in the Gulf of Mexico is more limited.

您說得對，從世界範圍來看，我們在墨西哥灣的存在是比較有限的。

And I would just tell you it's a function of evaluating the opportunities there and the cost of supply.

我只想告訴你，這是一個評估那裡的機會和供應成本的功能。

You touched on a couple of the factors.

您提到了幾個因素。

One is the cost of supply and the cost to develop there in the Gulf of Mexico.

一是墨西哥灣的供應成本和開發成本。

You talked about the geology.

您談到了地質狀況。

The geology is tough as well, which obviously impacts the cost.

地質條件也很惡劣，顯然會影響成本。

And so we look at all those factors.

因此，我們會考慮所有這些因素。

We continue to evaluate opportunities.

我們將繼續評估機會。

And if the Trump administration opens up new areas for exploration, we will be in there with the rest of industry evaluating to see if we think there's an opportunity to cost effectively develop those resources.

如果川普政府開放新的勘探領域，我們將與其他業內人士一起進行評估，看看是否有機會以經濟有效的方式開發這些資源。

But I'll come back to -- and so that's the lens we put across all of the opportunities.

但我會回過頭來——這就是我們看待所有機會的視角。

The Gulf of Mexico is no better off or no worse off than anything else that we're looking at.

墨西哥灣的情況和我們所看到的其他地方相比，沒有好到哪裡去，也沒有到哪裡去。

But it's really the criteria of cost effective supply being on the low end of the cost of supply curve, making sure that we can develop those in an advantaged way that then brings advantaged returns into the portfolio.

但實際上，成本效益供應的標準是處於供應成本曲線的低端，確保我們能夠以有利的方式開發這些供應，從而為投資組合帶來有利的回報。

And that's the criteria that we're using.

這就是我們使用的標準。

And if we find something in the Gulf of Mexico that we convince ourselves will allow us to do that, we'll develop it.

如果我們在墨西哥灣發現了可以讓我們實現這一目標的資源，我們就會去開發它。

If we don't, we'll continue to find and look for those opportunities in other parts of the world.

如果我們不這樣做，我們將繼續在世界其他地方尋找這些機會。

We're pretty agnostic with respect to location, much more focused on the characteristics and the ability to develop advantaged barrels.

我們對位置不太確定，更關注特性和開發優勢桶的能力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Maybe one on carbon capture.

也許有一個是關於碳捕獲的。

You have four decent-sized projects set to start up over the next 24 months on your list.

您的清單中有四個規模不小的項目將在未來 24 個月內啟動。

I know in the past you've talked about some of the challenges of effectively creating a new industry that doesn't currently exist, particularly on the commercial side.

我知道您過去曾談到有效創建一個目前尚不存在的新行業所面臨的一些挑戰，特別是在商業方面。

Can you maybe give some color as to how the commercial side of that business has evolved, what challenges remain, including maybe on the regulatory support side, and maybe what contribution you expect to see over the next couple years out of the CCS business?

您能否介紹一下該業務的商業方面是如何發展的，還有哪些挑戰，包括監管支援方面，以及您預計未來幾年 CCS 業務將做出哪些貢獻？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

I think a lot has happened in this space over time, and I think probably the most important development is there's been a real shakeout between people who are out there talking about a carbon capture and storage business and people who are actually capable of doing it.

我認為隨著時間的推移，這個領域發生了很多事情，我認為最重要的發展是，談論碳捕獲和儲存業務的人和真正有能力做到的人之間發生了真正的洗牌。

And that has, I think, created a lot more clarity, particularly from a customer standpoint in terms of where they need to go to find companies that can deliver on this.

我認為，這創造了更多的清晰度，特別是從客戶的角度來看，他們需要去哪裡找到可以實現這一目標的公司。

We are, as you mentioned, uniquely positioned here.

正如您所提到的，我們在這裡擁有獨特的優勢。

We've got the world's only end-to-end capture, transport, and storage system.

我們擁有世界上唯一的端到端捕獲、運輸和儲存系統。

And so that puts us in a unique position to work with customers to help them decarbonize.

這使我們處於獨特的地位，可以與客戶合作，幫助他們實現脫碳。

And so I think those conversations continue to happen.

所以我認為這些對話將會繼續進行。

There is a continued interest.

人們對此仍有持續的興趣。

We've got a fairly healthy sales pipeline that we're working with customers on.

我們擁有一個相當健康的銷售管道，正在與客戶合作。

So I like how that's developed.

所以我很喜歡它的發展方式。

I like our position.

我喜歡我們的立場。

We continue to do a lot of work around that system that we've built and making sure that unlike a lot of companies in this space that are limited to a single site, we've got a system and we're developing that system so that we've got a lot of optionality and take advantage of storage sites all along that pipeline.

我們繼續圍繞我們建立的系統做大量工作，並確保與這個領域的許多公司不同，它們僅限於一個站點，我們有一個系統，我們正在開發這個系統，因此我們擁有多種選擇，並可利用管道沿線的儲存站點。

And so we feel good about having a very robust system that we can then ensure customers that when we commit to capture their CO2 and store it, that we can effectively do that and manage any of the variables that kind of come along the pike.

因此，我們很高興擁有一個非常強大的系統，我們可以向客戶保證，當我們承諾捕獲他們的二氧化碳並儲存時，我們可以有效地做到這一點，並管理隨之而來的任何變數。

And so that's how we're looking at it.

這就是我們看待此事的方式。

We've got pretty aggressive growth plans in this space.

我們在這個領域制定了非常積極的成長計劃。

But, again, all dependent upon customer interest and customers' willingness to engage in long-term contracts.

但同樣，這一切都取決於客戶的興趣以及客戶簽訂長期合約的意願。

And so that's what we're continuing to work on.

這就是我們正在繼續努力的事情。

Like I said, a lot of interest in this space given our unique abilities.

正如我所說的，鑑於我們獨特的能力，人們對這個領域很感興趣。

And what we said back at the corporate plan is when we look at our low-carbon solutions business in its entirety, right, so obviously the CCS opportunities you just talked about, but hydrogen, lithium, everything all together, we would see $2 billion in earnings growth kind of between now and 2030.

我們在公司計劃中說過，當我們從整體上看待我們的低碳解決方案業務時，顯然你剛才談到的 CCS 機會，以及氫、鋰、所有一切加在一起，我們將看到 20 億美元從現在到2030 年，收入將大幅成長。

Obviously that will come as we pick up momentum and start to implement the projects that we've been talking about.

顯然，隨著我們獲得動力並開始實施我們一直在談論的項目，這一點就會實現。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Biraj Borkhataria RBC - Analyst

Biraj Borkhataria RBC - 分析師

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I just wanted to get some perspective on the chemicals market.

我只是想了解一些化學品市場的情況。

You show a helpful slide every quarter on the margins related to a 10-year average.

您每季都會展示一張有用的幻燈片，顯示與 10 年平均值相關的邊際。

Obviously the Chem's margin has been well below that very consistently.

顯然，Chem 的利潤率一直遠低於這個水準。

So do you see any signs of green shoots in that space, either regionally or product-wise that you can talk about?

那麼，您是否看到該領域出現了復甦跡象，無論是區域方面還是產品方面，您可以談談嗎？

And as a quick follow-on to that separately, are you able to disclose your reserve replacement ratio for the year, both total and organic?

作為對此問題的快速跟進，您能否披露今年的總儲量替代率和有機儲量替代率？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, good morning, Biraj.

是的，早上好，Biraj。

I'll start with that and see if Kathryn has anything she wants to add.

我將從這個開始，看看凱瑟琳是否還有什麼要補充。

But the margins that we show and the markers that we show are kind of an industry perspective with respect to kind of the distribution of the chemical business globally around the world.

但我們顯示的利潤率和指標是從產業角度來看的，反映了全球化學業務的分佈。

And the average margin that you see there, we're advantaged versus that with respect to our facilities.

而且，您看到的平均利潤率表明，就我們的設施而言，我們具有優勢。

And so as you look across the world, I'd say the most advantaged region today is North America, where, as you know, we've got a fairly large footprint.

因此，放眼世界，我會說當今最具優勢的地區是北美，正如你所知，我們在那裡擁有相當大的影響力。

So we've been, despite I'd say very challenging conditions, I think we've been well positioned there and very proud of the work that our folks in the chemical business have been doing to optimize and make sure that in this environment they continue to deliver earnings.

因此，儘管我認為條件非常具有挑戰性，但我認為我們在那裡處於有利地位，並且對我們化學業務部門的員工所做的工作感到非常自豪，他們一直在努力優化並確保在這種環境下繼續實現盈利。

The demand in chemicals is actually very strong, record levels of demand.

化學品的需求實際上非常強勁，需求水準創下了歷史新高。

The challenge has obviously been in the supply side of the equation.

顯然，挑戰在於供給方面。

I think in terms of a green shoot comment, I mean, how do you balance supply and demand?

我認為就綠芽評論而言，我的意思是，你如何平衡供需？

I mean, every facility out there has to kind of figure out where they're at in the cost of supply and whether they can survive or not.

我的意思是，每個工廠都必須弄清楚他們的供應成本是多少，以及他們是否能夠生存。

And I think you're seeing more and more companies that are disadvantaged with respect to their facilities evaluate their business and ability to be successful in the kind of market that we're in.

我認為，你會看到，越來越多在設施方面處於不利地位的公司正在評估自己的業務以及在我們所在的市場中取得成功的能力。

The way I look at this at a macro level, these cycles are necessary.

從宏觀層面來看，這些循環是必要的。

We've got to go through the lows to make sure that the industry continues to focus on efficiency and effectiveness and continuing the high grading of the broader overall industry portfolio.

我們必須渡過低谷，確保行業繼續注重效率和效益，並繼續保持更廣泛的整體行業組合的高水準。

Our job, obviously, is to make sure that our facilities are on the high end of that high grading, and we feel really good about where we've been there.

顯然，我們的工作是確保我們的設施達到高標準的高端，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

And so I think that's going to continue to happen.

所以我認為這種情況將會繼續發生。

I think from my perspective, you know, this challenge here is not unlike the challenges we've seen in the past and, frankly, very much in line with our philosophy of you build this business to be successful in the bottom of the cycle, and then you take the gravy that comes with the top of the cycle.

我認為從我的角度來看，這個挑戰與我們過去遇到的挑戰並沒有什麼不同，坦白說，這非常符合我們的理念，在週期的底部建立這個企業並取得成功，然後你就可以享受週期頂部帶來的利益。

And so we feel good about our ability to be successful even in these bottom of the cycle conditions.

因此，即使在週期最低谷的情況下，我們也對自己的成功能力充滿信心。

Kathryn, anything to add?

凱瑟琳，還有什麼要補充嗎？

The only thing I'd add is if you look at the projects we're bringing online those will continue to help us to be advantaged, whether it's the China One Chemical Complex that's coming online, which is really focused on performance chemicals, right, the upgrade we're doing overall in our Singapore facility, kind of resid upgrade on the margin helps us.

我唯一想補充的是，如果你看看我們正在上線的項目，這些項目將繼續幫助我們獲得優勢，無論是即將上線的中國一號化工綜合體，它真正專注於高性能化學品，對吧，我們在新加坡工廠進行的整體升級，對殘油的邊際升級對我們很有幫助。

And then, obviously, bringing on more circular plastics basically helps us in terms of advanced recycling.

顯然，引入更多的循環塑膠基本上有助於我們實現先進的回收。

So all the projects we have will continue to well position the company, and we've been very focused on ensuring that we're a low-cost supplier, which makes us resilient even in these difficult market conditions.

因此，我們所有的專案都將繼續為公司帶來良好的定位，而且我們一直非常注重確保我們是低成本的供應商，這使我們即使在困難的市場條件下也能保持韌性。

Anything on the reserve replacement ratio?

有關於儲備替代率的資訊嗎？

No, we don't really consider that to be particularly informative of where the company is going.

不，我們並不認為這能特別有助於了解公司的發展方向。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

Hey, morning.

嘿，早安。

Thanks for squeezing me in here.

謝謝你擠我來這裡。

I wanted to ask a question on slide six where you lay out all the projects.

我想問一個關於第六張投影片的問題，您在那張投影片上列出了所有的項目。

And, you know, Doug alluded to it earlier.

而且您知道，道格之前曾提到過這一點。

It seems like you're missing a couple of projects that are starting up here, TCO, the Permian Pipeline project.

似乎你錯過了幾個正在這裡啟動的項目，TCO，二疊紀管道項目。

We would have thought the overall potential earnings number from all the projects combined are closer to $5 billion, including those two projects.

我們原本認為，包括這兩個項目在內的所有項目的總潛在收益金額應該接近 50 億美元。

So, first, is that correct?

那麼，首先，這是正確的嗎？

And, second, is there any major difference you see between the earnings contribution of these projects and the cash flow contribution?

第二，您認為這些項目的獲利貢獻和現金流貢獻之間是否有重大差異？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So, I'm happy to take that.

所以我很高興接受這個事實。

We tended to focus here on the projects where we're the operator as opposed to, TCO, where we're not the operator.

我們傾向於專注於我們作為運營商的項目，而不是我們不是運營商的TCO。

Obviously, we will get some benefit from that, but we did not focus on projects that were not the operator.

顯然，我們會從中獲得一些好處，但我們並沒有把重點放在非營運商的專案上。

We also focused on projects that are newly starting up as opposed to projects like the Permian Crude Venture that is already underway.

我們也專注於新啟動的項目，而不是二疊紀原油項目等已經在進行中的項目。

And so, I would say, yes, we clearly continue to get incremental benefits from the projects that are already underway that the company started up pre 2025.

因此，我想說，是的，我們顯然會繼續從公司在 2025 年之前啟動的已經在建項目中獲得增量收益。

And, obviously, to the extent that we're participating in an arrangement where somebody else is the operator and projects are starting up, we will get the benefits from those things.

顯然，如果我們參與的安排是由其他人作為運營商並且專案正在啟動，那麼我們將從中獲益。

And I would add, in terms of those other projects that you referenced, obviously, they're baked into our plans and the volumes that we shared as part of the Corporate Plan Outlook includes all elements of the projects that are coming on.

我想補充一點，就您提到的其他項目而言，顯然它們都已納入我們的計劃，並且我們在《企業計劃展望》中分享的內容涵蓋了即將開展的項目的所有要素。

Great.

偉大的。

And any difference between earnings and cash flow contribution from these projects?

這些項目的獲利和現金流貢獻有何差異？

Any major difference?

有什麼重大差異嗎？

All I would say is, typically, on projects generally, there's a little bit of a lag on earnings relative to cash flow.

我想說的是，一般來說，對於專案而言，收益相對於現金流量會有一點延遲。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right, Jason, thanks.

好的，傑森，謝謝。

And thanks, everybody, for joining this call and for your questions.

感謝大家參加本次電話會議並提出問題。

We'll post the transcript of this call to the Investor section of our website early next week.

我們將於下週初將本次通話的記錄發佈到我們網站的「投資者」部分。

And have a nice weekend.

祝你周末愉快。

That concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you

謝謝