埃克森美孚 (XOM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Exxon Mobil Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎來到埃克森美孚公司 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Mrs. Jennifer Driscoll. Please go ahead, ma'am.

此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Driscoll 夫人。請繼續，女士。

Good morning, and welcome to ExxonMobil's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Thanks for joining us today. Here with me are Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kathy Mikells, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，歡迎來到埃克森美孚 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。感謝您今天加入我們。和我在一起的是董事長兼首席執行官達倫·伍茲 (Darren Woods)；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Kathy Mikells。

Our presentation and prerecorded remarks are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Our fourth quarter earnings news release is posted in the same location and will be joined by the transcript once it's available.

我們的演示文稿和預先錄製的評論可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。我們的第四季度收益新聞稿發佈在同一位置，一旦可用，將與成績單一起發布。

Shortly, Darren will provide brief opening comments and reference a few slides from this presentation. That will give analysts more time to ask questions before we conclude at about 8:30 a.m. Central Time.

不久，Darren 將提供簡短的開場白並參考本演示文稿中的幾張幻燈片。這將使分析師有更多時間在我們於中部時間上午 8 點 30 分左右結束之前提問。

During the presentation, we'll make forward-looking comments, so we encourage you to read our cautionary statement on Slide 2. Additional information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to these comments is listed in our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Qs. Please note that we also provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are posted on the website.

在演示期間，我們將發表前瞻性評論，因此我們鼓勵您閱讀我們在幻燈片 2 上的警告聲明。有關適用於這些評論的風險和不確定性的更多信息列在我們最新的 10-K 和 10 表格中-Qs。請注意，我們還在網站上發布的收益幻燈片末尾提供了補充信息。

Also, as a reminder, we posted our Advancing Climate Solutions Report, Sustainability Report and Energy Outlook online in mid-December. We reference them in today's presentation, and you can find them on our website under the Sustainability tab.

此外，作為提醒，我們在 12 月中旬在線發布了我們的《推進氣候解決方案報告》、《可持續發展報告》和《能源展望》。我們在今天的演示中引用了它們，您可以在我們網站的“可持續性”選項卡下找到它們。

Lastly, in the past, we've held an annual Investor Day in March. We won't be hosting an Investor Day in 2023. Last December, we laid out comprehensive plans for 2023 through 2027 as part of our Corporate Plan Update, and the company is already executing on these plans. We've been enjoying the higher level of investor engagement that we've been having. We'll continue to seek your feedback, to host events that give you access to our leaders and insights on parts of the business that interest you and to share with you information about the company and our plans on more of a real-time basis.

最後，在過去，我們在三月份舉辦了一年一度的投資者日。我們不會在 2023 年舉辦投資者日。去年 12 月，我們制定了 2023 年至 2027 年的全面計劃，作為我們公司計劃更新的一部分，公司已經在執行這些計劃。我們一直在享受更高水平的投資者參與。我們將繼續徵求您的反饋，舉辦活動，讓您能夠接觸到我們的領導者並了解您感興趣的業務部分，並與您分享有關公司和我們計劃的更多實時信息。

With that, I'll hand it over to Darren.

有了這個，我會把它交給達倫。

Thanks, Jennifer. Good morning, and thanks for joining us today.

謝謝，詹妮弗。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。

Before covering our 2022 results, I want to start by recognizing our people. Their hard work and commitment, not only to the company, but to meeting the critical needs of society, are what drove the strong results we reported this morning.

在介紹我們 2022 年的業績之前，我想首先表彰我們的員工。他們的辛勤工作和承諾，不僅對公司，而且對滿足社會的關鍵需求，都是推動我們今天上午報告的強勁業績的原因。

Their work is not easy. Whether it's achieving industry-leading safety, driving record levels of environmental performance, increasing production, offsetting runaway inflation, effectively responding to expropriations or quickly recovering for winter storms, to name just a few of the challenges, our people delivered while, I'll add, continuing to manage significant ongoing organizational changes. As I cover our results, I think you'll see why we and the entire management team are so proud of their efforts.

他們的工作並不容易。無論是實現行業領先的安全性、創紀錄的環境績效水平、增加產量、抵消失控的通貨膨脹、有效應對徵用還是在冬季風暴中快速恢復，僅舉幾例挑戰，我們的員工同時交付添加，繼續管理正在進行的重大組織變革。當我介紹我們的結果時，我想你會明白為什麼我們和整個管理團隊都為他們的努力感到自豪。

Of course, our results clearly benefited from a favorable market. To take full advantage of the undersupplied market, our work began years ago, well before the pandemic, and we chose to invest countercyclically. We leaned in when others leaned out, bucking conventional wisdom. We continue with these investments through the pandemic and into today.

當然，我們的業績顯然得益於有利的市場。為了充分利用供不應求的市場，我們在多年前就開始了工作，遠在大流行之前，我們選擇了逆週期投資。當其他人向外傾斜時，我們向內傾斜，與傳統智慧背道而馳。從大流行到今天，我們將繼續進行這些投資。

This year, our improved asset portfolio, organization changes and strong operating performance came together to deliver industry-leading results, industry-leading earnings, cash flows, return on capital employed and total shareholder returns. Excluding asset sales, we had our best cash flow performance since the merger.

今年，我們改進的資產組合、組織變革和強勁的經營業績共同帶來了行業領先的業績、行業領先的收益、現金流、已動用資本回報率和股東總回報率。不包括資產出售，我們的現金流表現是自合併以來最好的。

And despite lower revenues, we delivered higher profits than 2012, our previous record year, with a 400 basis point improvement in profit margin, reflecting upgrades to our product mix, structural cost reductions, disciplined expense management.

儘管收入下降，但我們的利潤高於我們上一個創紀錄的 2012 年，利潤率提高了 400 個基點，這反映了我們產品組合的升級、結構性成本的降低和嚴格的費用管理。

2022 was also a year of strong progress across our 5 strategic priorities. Importantly, we've continued to strengthen our industry-leading portfolio and increased production from high-return, advantaged assets in Guyana and the Permian at a time when the world needed it most.

2022 年也是我們在 5 個戰略重點方面取得重大進展的一年。重要的是，我們繼續加強我們行業領先的產品組合，並在世界最需要的時候增加了圭亞那和二疊紀高回報、優勢資產的產量。

We implemented a series of organizational changes to further leverage our scale and integration, improve effectiveness and better serve our customers. We combined our downstream and chemical companies to form Product Solutions, the world's largest fuels, chemicals and lubricants business. This new integrated business is focused on developing high-value products, improving portfolio value and leading in sustainability.

我們實施了一系列組織變革，以進一步利用我們的規模和整合、提高效率並更好地為我們的客戶服務。我們合併了我們的下游和化工公司，形成了全球最大的燃料、化學品和潤滑油業務 Product Solutions。這一新的綜合業務專注於開發高價值產品、提高產品組合價值和引領可持續發展。

We're also now supporting our businesses with corporate-wide organizations, including projects, technology, engineering, operations, safety and sustainability. We see further opportunities in supply chain, procurement and finance.

我們現在還通過全公司範圍的組織支持我們的業務，包括項目、技術、工程、運營、安全和可持續性。我們在供應鏈、採購和金融方面看到了更多機會。

We continued to expand our Low Carbon Solutions business, recently signed the first-of-its-kind customer contract to capture and permanently store up to 2 million metric tons per year of CO2. This agreement, in a hard-to-decarbonize sector, highlights how ExxonMobil can leverage our advantages to help others reduce their emissions and build an attractive business with strong returns and significant opportunities for growth.

我們繼續擴大我們的低碳解決方案業務，最近簽署了首個此類客戶合同，每年捕獲並永久封存多達 200 萬噸二氧化碳。該協議在一個難以脫碳的行業中，突出了埃克森美孚如何利用我們的優勢幫助其他人減少排放，並建立一個具有豐厚回報和重要增長機會的有吸引力的業務。

The recent passage of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivizes both hydrogen and carbon capture and storage, further reinforces this. To that end, in December, we shared our plans to invest approximately $17 billion in lower-emissions opportunities from 2022 through 2027, up from $15 billion in our prior plan.

最近通過的美國通貨膨脹減少法案進一步加強了這一點，該法案鼓勵氫和碳的捕獲和儲存。為此，我們在 12 月公佈了從 2022 年到 2027 年在低排放機會上投資約 170 億美元的計劃，高於我們之前計劃的 150 億美元。

We also made significant progress reducing greenhouse gas emissions in our existing operations and remain on track with our 2030 emissions-reduction plans, including net zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions for our unconventional operations in the Permian Basin by 2030.

我們在減少現有業務的溫室氣體排放方面也取得了重大進展，並繼續推進我們的 2030 年減排計劃，包括到 2030 年我們在二疊紀盆地的非常規業務的淨零範圍 1 和範圍 2 排放。

In addition to investing in industry-advantaged projects, we took advantage of the strong markets to further high-grade our asset portfolio with approximately $5 billion in divestments of noncore assets. CapEx was in line with our guidance.

除了投資於具有行業優勢的項目外，我們還利用強勁的市場進一步提升我們的資產組合，剝離了約 50 億美元的非核心資產。資本支出符合我們的指導。

To further increase transparency, in 2022, we introduced 3 new reports: the Lobbying Report, which provides additional disclosure of our lobbying activities and expenditures; Climate Lobbying Report, which provides details on our U.S. activities at the federal and state level; and our Investing in People supplement, an addition to our updated Sustainability Report.

為了進一步提高透明度，我們在 2022 年推出了 3 份新報告： 遊說報告，進一步披露了我們的遊說活動和支出；氣候遊說報告，詳細介紹了我們在美國聯邦和州一級的活動；以及我們的《投資於人》增刊，這是對我們更新的可持續發展報告的補充。

Lastly, as I mentioned, the hard work of our people underpinned our success this past year, as it has done for decades. We build on this advantage every year by attracting and developing the best talent. This past year, we were once again recognized as top in industry for most attractive employer among U.S. engineering students, an honor we've received 10 years in a row.

最後，正如我所提到的，我們人民的辛勤工作支撐了我們過去一年的成功，就像幾十年來所做的那樣。我們每年都通過吸引和培養最優秀的人才來鞏固這一優勢。在過去的一年裡，我們再次被公認為美國工程專業學生最具吸引力雇主的行業佼佼者，這是我們連續 10 年獲此殊榮。

Our 2022 financial results, which led the industry, further confirmed the strength of the strategy we developed 5 years ago. We grew earnings to nearly $56 billion, $59 billion excluding identified items, significantly outpacing peers. We delivered an industry-leading total shareholder return of 87% and a return on capital employed of 25%, our highest 1-year ROCE since 2012.

我們領先行業的 2022 年財務業績進一步證實了我們 5 年前製定的戰略的實力。我們的收入增長到近 560 億美元，其中不包括已確定項目的收入為 590 億美元，大大超過了同行。我們實現了 87% 的行業領先股東總回報率和 25% 的已動用資本回報率，這是我們自 2012 年以來最高的 1 年 ROCE。

Cash flow from operating activities was nearly $77 billion, also leading the industry. This enabled us to reduce net debt to 5%, fortifying the balance sheet and positioning us to continue our strategy of countercyclically investing.

經營活動產生的現金流近770億美元，同樣領先於行業。這使我們能夠將淨債務減少到 5%，鞏固資產負債表並使我們能夠繼續我們的反週期投資戰略。

Our continued focus on leveraging scale and integration drove further efficiencies with nearly $6.9 billion in structural cost savings versus 2019, up from $5.3 billion at the end of 2021. We remain on plan to meet our target of $9 billion in structural cost reductions by the end of 2023.

我們繼續專注於利用規模和整合，進一步提高了效率，與 2019 年相比節省了近 69 億美元的結構性成本，高於 2021 年底的 53 億美元。我們仍計劃在年底前實現結構性成本削減 90 億美元的目標2023 年。

Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, we continue to share our success with shareholders through a reliable and growing dividend. In 2022, we boosted the quarterly dividend by more than 3% and marked the 40th consecutive annual increase. Additionally, we increased our share repurchase program twice during the year. In total, we returned $30 billion to shareholders in 2022, including about $15 billion in dividends, which also led peers.

與我們的資本配置策略一致，我們繼續通過可靠且不斷增長的股息與股東分享我們的成功。 2022年，我們將季度股息提高了3%以上，連續第40年增長。此外，我們在這一年中兩次增加了股票回購計劃。總的來說，我們在 2022 年向股東返還了 300 億美元，其中包括約 150 億美元的股息，這也領先於同行。

These actions reflect the confidence we have in our strategy, the performance we've seen across our businesses and the strength of our company's future. We're proud of our people and their work to meet the other needs of society. As we advance our strategy and the "and" equation, we're committed to sharing their progress.

這些行動反映了我們對我們的戰略、我們在我們的業務中看到的業績以及我們公司未來的實力的信心。我們為我們的員工和他們為滿足社會其他需求所做的工作感到自豪。當我們推進我們的戰略和“和”等式時，我們致力於分享他們的進步。

Consistent with this, we continue to enhance our disclosures and increase transparency. In December, we updated several important online publications. Our latest Sustainability Report describes the 14 focus areas where we believe our company can have the most impact.

與此相一致，我們繼續加強披露並提高透明度。 12 月，我們更新了幾份重要的在線出版物。我們最新的可持續發展報告描述了我們認為我們公司可以產生最大影響的 14 個重點領域。

The Advancing Climate Solutions 2023 Progress Report outlines our approach to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in support of a net-zero future. It includes updated resiliency modeling under the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, including the addition of carbon and pricing assumptions, and an audit statement from Wood Mackenzie.

《推進氣候解決方案 2023 年進展報告》概述了我們幫助減少溫室氣體排放以支持淨零未來的方法。它包括 IEA 到 2050 年淨零排放情景下更新的彈性模型，包括增加碳和定價假設，以及 Wood Mackenzie 的審計聲明。

In addition, it includes a discussion on the value of a life-cycle approach to measuring company-specific emissions versus Scope 3 targets. We believe a life-cycle approach for companies is more aligned with the principles of ESG, better reflects a company's efforts to reduce society's emissions and avoids the negative consequences of a company-specific Scope 3 target.

此外，它還討論了使用生命週期方法衡量公司特定排放量與範圍 3 目標的價值。我們認為，公司的生命週期方法更符合 ESG 原則，更好地反映公司為減少社會排放所做的努力，並避免公司特定範圍 3 目標的負面影響。

The update also contains more information on how we're driving reductions in methane emissions. And finally, it includes a look at the role of plastics in the energy transition and how we're expanding our capacity for advanced recycling to help address the issue of plastic waste.

該更新還包含有關我們如何推動甲烷排放量減少的更多信息。最後，它介紹了塑料在能源轉型中的作用，以及我們如何擴大先進回收能力以幫助解決塑料廢物問題。

Separately, we've updated our Outlook for Energy, which is our latest view of energy supply and demand through 2050. It forms the basis for our business planning. In addition to assessing trends in economic development, technology advances and consumer behavior, our outlook seeks to identify potential impacts of climate-related government policies, which often targets specific sectors.

另外，我們更新了能源展望，這是我們對 2050 年能源供需的最新看法。它構成了我們業務規劃的基礎。除了評估經濟發展、技術進步和消費者行為的趨勢外，我們的展望還試圖確定與氣候相關的政府政策的潛在影響，這些政策通常針對特定部門。

We encourage you to read these publications to gain a better understanding of how we're working to be a leader in the energy transition. They're available on our website under the Sustainability tab.

我們鼓勵您閱讀這些出版物，以更好地了解我們如何努力成為能源轉型的領導者。它們可在我們網站的“可持續性”選項卡下找到。

Our plan for 2023 remains anchored in our existing strategy and builds on our continuing success. I'll wrap up by highlighting a few key areas. Critically, we'll continue our efforts to lead the industry in safety, operating and financial performance. We'll continue to profitably grow the business through advantaged investments to meet the world's evolving needs and reduce emissions.

我們的 2023 年計劃仍然以我們現有的戰略為基礎，並以我們持續的成功為基礎。最後，我將強調幾個關鍵領域。至關重要的是，我們將繼續努力在安全、運營和財務績效方面引領行業。我們將繼續通過優勢投資實現盈利增長，以滿足世界不斷變化的需求並減少排放。

We'll further leverage our new organization to fully realize our advantages in scale and integration and improve competitiveness. We expect to deliver another $2 billion in structural cost reductions, meeting our target of $9 billion in savings versus 2019.

我們將進一步發揮新組織的作用，充分發揮規模優勢和整合優勢，提升競爭力。我們預計將再減少 20 億美元的結構性成本，實現我們與 2019 年相比節省 90 億美元的目標。

We'll look to capture additional organizational synergies by consolidating our supply chain activities and centralizing a majority of our finance and procurement operations. This will help us take better advantage of our scale and greatly improve our customer, vendor and employee experience.

我們將尋求通過整合我們的供應鏈活動和集中我們的大部分財務和採購業務來獲得額外的組織協同效應。這將幫助我們更好地利用我們的規模，並大大改善我們的客戶、供應商和員工體驗。

We anticipate 2023 capital and exploration expenses of $23 billion to $25 billion. This includes investments in the next development in Guyana and increased spending in U.S. unconventional assets. It also includes advancing our China chemical complex and numerous emission-reduction opportunities.

我們預計 2023 年的資本和勘探費用為 230 億美元至 250 億美元。這包括對圭亞那下一個開發項目的投資，以及增加對美國非常規資產的支出。它還包括推進我們的中國化工綜合體和眾多減排機會。

We'll advance our work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity in our operated assets and help customers reduce theirs, focusing on hard-to-decarbonize sectors. We'll continue to progress our blue hydrogen project in Baytown that consists of 1 billion cubic feet per day blue hydrogen plant, the world's largest, and a CCS project with potential to store up to 10 million metric tons of CO2 per year. We'll also leverage our recent success in Louisiana to grow the customer base for our Low Carbon Solutions business.

我們將推進我們的工作，以降低我們運營資產的溫室氣體排放強度，並幫助客戶減少他們的排放，重點關注難以脫碳的行業。我們將繼續推進我們在 Baytown 的藍氫項目，該項目包括世界上最大的每天 10 億立方英尺的藍氫工廠，以及一個每年可儲存多達 1000 萬噸二氧化碳的 CCS 項目。我們還將利用我們最近在路易斯安那州取得的成功來擴大我們低碳解決方案業務的客戶群。

As energy system evolves, our focus on the fundamentals and investments in the integrated but diversified portfolio of advantaged businesses will play a crucial role in capturing value and outperforming competition, irrespective of the pace or path of the transition.

隨著能源系統的發展，無論轉型的速度或路徑如何，我們對綜合但多元化的優勢企業組合的基本面和投資的關注將在獲取價值和超越競爭方面發揮關鍵作用。

As you've seen, we remain committed to our capital allocation priorities: investing in advantaged projects, maintaining a strong balance sheet to manage across the commodity cycles and sharing our success through shareholder distributions.

正如您所看到的，我們仍然致力於我們的資本分配優先事項：投資優勢項目，保持強大的資產負債表以管理整個商品週期，並通過股東分配分享我們的成功。

We've demonstrated our commitment to a reliable and growing dividend and further sharing our success through the share repurchase program with up to $35 billion in cumulative repurchases in 2023 and 2024.

我們已經證明了我們對可靠且不斷增長的股息的承諾，並通過股票回購計劃進一步分享我們的成功，2023 年和 2024 年累計回購金額高達 350 億美元。

2022 demonstrated the importance of the "and" equation and the strength of our strategy. We feel good about the progress we've made and even better about the opportunities ahead.

2022 年展示了“和”等式的重要性以及我們戰略的實力。我們對已經取得的進展感到滿意，甚至對未來的機會感到滿意。

With that, let me turn the call over to Jennifer.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給詹妮弗。

Thank you, Darren. Now let's move to Q&A. (Operator Instructions) With that, Jennifer, please open up the line for our first question.

謝謝你，達倫。現在讓我們進入問答環節。 （操作員說明）那麼，詹妮弗，請打開我們的第一個問題的熱線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Jeanine Wai with -- I apologize, we'll go first to Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

（操作員說明）我們將首先與 Jeanine Wai 一起 - 抱歉，我們將首先與 RBC 一起前往 Biraj Borkhataria。

Two, please. First one, your comments, Darren, on runaway inflation. Obviously, the Permian gets a lot of the headlines there. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the offshore environment. ExxonMobil is one of the most active in the space there. So I just want to get a sense of what you're seeing inflation-wise in the offshore.

兩個，請。第一個，達倫，你對失控的通貨膨脹的評論。顯然，二疊紀在那裡佔據了很多頭條新聞。我想知道你是否可以談談離岸環境。埃克森美孚是該領域最活躍的公司之一。所以我只想了解一下離岸通脹方面的情況。

And then second question is on CapEx, and I probably shouldn't do this, but if I take the 4Q numbers and annualize them, you would be above the 2023 guide. So obviously, I have to adjust for a little bit of seasonality there, but I would have thought you'd be adding growth CapEx 2023 versus '22, plus you have the inflationary pressure that you mentioned. So how much contingency is there in the 2023 CapEx guidance? And what are the risks there to the upside or downside?

然後第二個問題是關於資本支出的，我可能不應該這樣做，但如果我採用 4Q 數字並將它們年化，你將高於 2023 年指南。很明顯，我必須針對那裡的一些季節性因素進行調整，但我本以為你會增加 2023 年的增長資本支出而不是 22 年，再加上你提到的通脹壓力。那麼 2023 年資本支出指南中有多少意外事件？上行或下行的風險是什麼？

Yes. Biraj, let me start with your last question and then move to the first. With respect to CapEx, if you look at the range we've given, I think we've indicated in the comments, and I just -- the comments I just made, that we'll be at the upper end of that range, which is consistent with a slight increase given the work that we're doing.

是的。 Biraj，讓我從你的最後一個問題開始，然後轉到第一個問題。關於資本支出，如果你看看我們給出的範圍，我想我們已經在評論中指出，我只是 - 我剛剛發表的評論，我們將處於該範圍的上限，考慮到我們正在做的工作，這與略有增加是一致的。

But I would reiterate that the broader range that we've given over the years continues to fit well with our plans and is consistent with the pacing that we established when we came out of the pandemic. As I mentioned before, we had worked with our contractors to lay out a plan for how we continue to progress those investments. And I would tell you today, with our projects organization, feel really good about the progress we're making, the efficiencies that we're gaining with our CapEx.

但我要重申，多年來我們給出的更廣泛的範圍繼續與我們的計劃相吻合，並且與我們走出大流行病時確定的步伐一致。正如我之前提到的，我們已經與我們的承包商合作制定了一個計劃，說明我們如何繼續推進這些投資。我今天會告訴你，通過我們的項目組織，我們對我們正在取得的進展以及我們通過資本支出獲得的效率感到非常滿意。

If you look at the pause that we had to take due to the pandemic, we basically offset any of those costs to maintain the same level of productivity of the spend going forward. So something real proud of the projects organization is doing. So I would expect to continue to stay within that range. And if that changes, obviously, in the years to come, we'll update you as our plans develop and make sure you all stay aware of that.

如果你看看我們因大流行而不得不暫停的情況，我們基本上會抵消這些成本中的任何一部分，以保持未來支出的相同生產率水平。因此，項目組織正在做的真正值得驕傲的事情。所以我希望繼續保持在這個範圍內。顯然，如果這種情況在未來幾年發生變化，我們會隨著計劃的製定向您通報最新情況，並確保大家都了解這一點。

With respect to the inflation, I would say from an operating expense standpoint, one point I'd make is if you look at what the organization did year-on-year, essentially with all the synergies that we are capturing, some of the scale advantages and purchasing power we had, essentially the businesses collectively came in on plan. We were able to offset the inflation that we're seeing from an expense standpoint, which was obviously no easy task.

關於通貨膨脹，我想從運營費用的角度來看，我要說的一點是，如果你看看組織同比做了什麼，基本上是我們正在捕捉的所有協同效應，一些規模我們擁有的優勢和購買力，本質上是企業集體按計劃進行。從費用的角度來看，我們能夠抵消我們看到的通貨膨脹，這顯然不是一件容易的事。

I think on the -- if you look at the different projects around the world, it really is a function of when we chose to engage the contractors and engage the equipment that we're using. I mean, if you look at the Permian, it's the short cycle and where there's a lot of activity. And so like a lot of the parts of our business, supply and demand gets tight and puts pressure on pricing. There's less of that supply-demand pressure in other parts of the business, so not seeing the same kind of pressure that we're seeing in the Permian. That tends to be the one area that's really, really hot.

我認為 - 如果你看看世界各地的不同項目，它確實是我們選擇聘請承包商和聘用我們正在使用的設備的時間的一個函數。我的意思是，如果你看看二疊紀，它的周期很短，而且活動很多。因此，就像我們業務的許多部分一樣，供求關係變得緊張並對定價施加壓力。業務其他部分的供需壓力較小，因此沒有看到我們在二疊紀看到的那種壓力。這往往是一個非常非常熱門的領域。

But I think in all those areas, we're using the size of the business that we have and the long-term plans that we have and long-term commitments that we can make with our contracting partners to make sure that we're keeping those in check and that our partners are playing the long game here with us. So I think we've done a pretty good job of keeping productivity pretty high. I feel pretty good about that.

但我認為在所有這些領域，我們正在利用我們擁有的業務規模、我們擁有的長期計劃以及我們可以與我們的簽約合作夥伴做出的長期承諾，以確保我們保持那些受到控制的人，我們的合作夥伴正在和我們一起玩長期遊戲。所以我認為我們在保持較高的生產力方面做得很好。我對此感覺很好。

I don't know, Kathy, anything you want to add?

我不知道，凱西，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just the other thing I would add is I'd really caution you about taking the fourth quarter CapEx and exploration expense and kind of annualizing it because we tend to run a bit higher in the fourth quarter, and the expense isn't kind of prorated over the year.

我要補充的另一件事是，我真的要提醒你注意第四季度的資本支出和勘探費用，並將其年化，因為我們在第四季度的業績往往會更高一些，而且費用並沒有按比例分配一年下來。

Overall, 2022 came in right about where we expected it. And when we talked about our corporate plan in December, we said we expect it to be at about $23 billion to $25 billion in 2023 and that we expect just to see a little bit of an increase year-over-year in part because Payara has been pulled forward, so we have a little more spending there. China 1 is starting to spool up. And obviously, our emission plans are also spooling up. So right now, I'd say we're very consistent with our expectations and the guidance that we've given you.

總體而言，2022 年符合我們的預期。當我們在 12 月談到我們的公司計劃時，我們說我們預計到 2023 年將達到約 230 億美元至 250 億美元，並且我們預計只會看到同比略有增長，部分原因是 Payara被拉向前，所以我們在那裡有更多的支出。中國一號開始加速。顯然，我們的排放計劃也在逐步推進。所以現在，我想說我們非常符合我們的期望和我們給你的指導。

We'll go next to Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

我們將與巴克萊銀行一起去 Jeanine Wai 旁邊。

Our question is on the downstream, which was a nice positive in 2022. And how do you think the EU embargo on Russian product imports on February 5 will impact your refining margins? And I guess what we're thinking is that there's a number of moving pieces between your refining footprint, particularly in the Gulf Coast and Europe. And then there's potential tailwinds for diesel margins as Russian export dissipate, but there's also -- probably need to take into account the likely incremental tightness in VGO supplies?

我們的問題是關於下游，這在 2022 年是一個很好的積極因素。您認為歐盟 2 月 5 日對俄羅斯產品進口的禁運將如何影響您的煉油利潤率？我想我們在想的是，在您的煉油足蹟之間存在許多移動部分，特別是在墨西哥灣沿岸和歐洲。然後，隨著俄羅斯出口的消散，柴油利潤率可能會出現順風，但也可能需要考慮 VGO 供應可能出現的增量緊張？

Yes, I'll take that, Jeanine. I think start with just the market in general, and I think the driver behind the refining margins that we've seen here of late is the -- driven by the pandemic impacts of shutting down capacity and then not having that capacity available as demand has recovered. So the world remains pretty tight and it will stay, I think, tight while we wait for additional refinery expansions to come online primarily out in Asia and the Middle East.

是的，我會接受的，珍妮。我認為只從整個市場開始，我認為我們最近在這裡看到的煉油利潤率背後的驅動力是 - 受到關閉產能的大流行影響的驅動，然後隨著需求的增加而沒有可用的產能康復了。因此，世界仍然非常緊張，我認為，在我們等待更多煉油廠擴建主要在亞洲和中東上線時，它會保持緊張。

I think the Russia impact in the ban on products going into Europe could potentially have some short-term implications. At the end of the day, those products are going to be needed. So it really is around the logistics, I'll call it, dis-optimization to where the market is pretty efficient. And we've got the most efficient supply chains and logistics systems lined out. We're going to disrupt those.

我認為俄羅斯對進入歐洲的產品禁令的影響可能會產生一些短期影響。在一天結束時，將需要這些產品。所以它真的是圍繞物流，我稱之為，不優化市場非常有效的地方。我們已經列出了最高效的供應鍊和物流系統。我們要破壞那些。

And I think it is a question of how does that disruption manifest itself in the market and what kind of disconnects and discontinuities do you see in the short term. And then ultimately, we'll -- that system will stabilize, re-optimize. And I expect a higher cost just because of you're moving to a less optimal logistics approach but more stable. I don't -- that I see is how that's going to play out. So I don't think there'll be a long-term impact. It will be a short-term one, and then it's just a question of how long it takes for the systems to rebalance.

我認為這是一個問題，即這種破壞如何在市場上體現出來，以及你在短期內看到什麼樣的脫節和不連續性。然後最終，我們將 - 該系統將穩定下來，重新優化。而且我預計成本會更高，因為您正在轉向不太理想但更穩定的物流方式。我不——我看到的是結果如何。所以我認為不會有長期影響。這將是一個短期的，然後就是系統重新平衡需要多長時間的問題。

I think more fundamental to refining is the shortness and with the economies picking up and with China coming out of its COVID lockdown and the economic growth there and then the view that you take on the economic impacts and how severe recessions are here this year, that's probably going to play a much bigger role. If demand picks up, economies continue to grow, we're going to see that tightness manifest itself in continued high refining margins, which I think will mean a fairly high margins this year and potentially going into 2024 as well.

我認為對煉油來說更重要的是短缺，隨著經濟復甦，隨著中國擺脫 COVID 封鎖和那裡的經濟增長，然後你對經濟影響的看法以及今年這裡的經濟衰退有多嚴重，那就是可能會發揮更大的作用。如果需求回升，經濟繼續增長，我們將看到供應緊張體現在持續的高煉油利潤率上，我認為這將意味著今年的利潤率相當高，並可能進入 2024 年。

We'll go next to Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們將與高盛一起去尼爾梅塔旁邊。

I wanted you to spend some time on the Permian outlook for 2023. You made some comments in the prepared remarks about getting to over 600,000 barrels a day. So I guess that's about 10% growth as we think about '23. But just your thoughts on volumes and then, ultimately, where should we think about plateau?

我希望您花一些時間了解 2023 年的二疊紀前景。您在準備好的發言中就日產量超過 600,000 桶發表了一些評論。所以我想這大約是 23 年 10% 的增長。但只是你對交易量的看法，然後，最終，我們應該在哪裡考慮高原？

Yes. Thanks, Neil. I would take you back to 2018 when we were talking about our strategy in the Permian. And we had said at that time, our plan was to grow to 1 million barrels a day of production by 2025. When the pandemic hit, we basically said there's going to be a delay in a lot of our plans and pushed out those objectives by about 2 years, so moving from 2025 to 2027.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。當我們談論我們在二疊紀的戰略時，我會帶你回到 2018 年。我們當時說過，我們的計劃是到 2025 年將日產量增加到 100 萬桶。當大流行來襲時，我們基本上說我們的很多計劃都會被推遲，並通過大約 2 年，所以從 2025 年移動到 2027 年。

If you look at my comments and the plans, we're now forecasting that our Permian production will reach about 1 million barrels a day by 2027. So very much in line going all the way back to 2018 and then the comments that we made around the pandemic and the delay that was introducing. So I think that's the context to think about what we're doing in the Permian and that development.

如果你看一下我的評論和計劃，我們現在預測到 2027 年我們的二疊紀產量將達到每天約 100 萬桶。這非常符合一直追溯到 2018 年以及我們之前發表的評論大流行和正在引入的延遲。所以我認為這是思考我們在二疊紀和開發中所做的事情的背景。

If you look at 2021, we added about 90,000 barrels a day of production. 2022, very similar number, 90,000 barrels a day. And that, in part, was what I'd call the organic development and the drilling and the production as well as clearing our DUCs inventory.

如果你看看 2021 年，我們每天增加約 90,000 桶的產量。 2022 年，非常相似的數字，每天 9 萬桶。在某種程度上，這就是我所說的有機開發、鑽探和生產，以及清理我們的 DUC 庫存。

So as we were in the pandemic, obviously, not a lot of incentive to bring production on. And so we concentrated our spend on drilling. And then as we got into higher-priced environments, concentrated on clearing that inventory and bringing those wells to production. And so we were bringing our DUC inventory down. As we go into next year, we're going to rebuild that inventory, get to an optimum level that we can then use and maintain as we go through the next several years.

因此，當我們處於大流行中時，顯然沒有太多的動力來推動生產。所以我們把錢集中在鑽井上。然後當我們進入價格更高的環境時，集中精力清理庫存並將這些油井投入生產。因此我們降低了 DUC 庫存。當我們進入明年時，我們將重建該庫存，達到最佳水平，然後我們可以在接下來的幾年中使用和維護。

So that's kind of the strategy of how we're working that. If you think about ultimately getting to 1 million barrels a day by 2027, that's roughly a 13% compounded annual growth rate. That's going to -- that's not going to be steady every year. That will kind of fluctuate, call it, plus or minus 5%. But that's kind of order of magnitude how we'll see that playing out. And any 1 year's production will be a function of the development plans we have and how those development plans manifest themselves in that specific time frame.

所以這就是我們如何工作的策略。如果你考慮到 2027 年最終達到每天 100 萬桶，那大約是 13% 的複合年增長率。這將 - 這不會每年都穩定。這會有點波動，稱之為正負 5%。但這是我們將如何看待它的數量級。任何 1 年的生產都將取決於我們的發展計劃以及這些發展計劃如何在特定時間範圍內體現出來。

But I think bottom line is we're basically on plan, moving at pace that we anticipated. And I'm hopeful that as we continue to focus on the technology developments and continuing to improve efficiency, we'll see either that production brought online with more effectively at lower cost or, in fact, more productivity and higher production. But that's a function of the ongoing work, we've got to bring our technology and operational capabilities to bear in the Permian, continue to improve what we're doing there.

但我認為底線是我們基本上按計劃進行，按照我們預期的速度前進。我希望隨著我們繼續關注技術發展並繼續提高效率，我們將看到生產以更低的成本更有效地在線，或者實際上，更高的生產力和更高的產量。但這是正在進行的工作的一個功能，我們必須將我們的技術和運營能力帶到二疊紀，繼續改進我們在那裡所做的事情。

We'll go next to Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與摩根士丹利一起去德文麥克德莫特旁邊。

So I wanted to ask about the chemicals business. And if we look at the margin chart that you have in the slide deck, it's the one part of the portfolio where margins are still below the 10-year range. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the trends that you're seeing there here as you move into early 2023 with China reopening and that potentially being a positive driver for margins.

所以我想問一下化學品業務。如果我們看一下幻燈片中的利潤率圖表，它是投資組合中利潤率仍低於 10 年範圍的一部分。我想知道你是否可以談談隨著中國重新開放進入 2023 年初，你在這裡看到的趨勢，這可能是利潤率的積極推動因素。

And then also just talk through some of the discrete growth projects that you have coming on over the next few years to drive that earnings growth that you talked about at the Investor Day last year. I think Baytown, you noted later this year, and you have the China chemicals complex still a few years out, but some of the growth projects and the progress there as well.

然後還要談談你在未來幾年內進行的一些離散增長項目，以推動你去年在投資者日談到的盈利增長。我認為 Baytown，你在今年晚些時候提到過，中國化工綜合體還有幾年的時間，但一些增長項目和那裡的進展也是如此。

Yes, sure. I think let me just take both sides of the equation with chemicals. I'll start with the demand side of the equation, which you referenced. And you're right, I think one of the things we saw last year was with the China lockdowns and the lack of growth in China, which is a big, as you know, chemical market, that had an impact on the demand side of the equation.

是的，當然。我想讓我把等式的兩邊都拿來處理化學品。我將從您提到的等式的需求端開始。你是對的，我認為我們去年看到的其中一件事是中國的封鎖和中國的增長乏力，正如你所知，這是一個巨大的化工市場，這對需求方面產生了影響方程式。

My expectation as we move into this year and the China economy continues to open up, we'll see that demand pick back up again. And then again, a function of whether how deep and how widespread the recessions are around the world, that's going to have an impact. If current conventions and thinking holds and recessions are mild than people anticipated, I think that will see a benefit in the chemical on the demand side as well.

我預計，隨著我們進入今年，中國經濟繼續開放，我們將看到需求再次回升。再一次，取決於全球經濟衰退的深度和範圍，這將產生影響。如果當前的慣例和想法成立並且經濟衰退比人們預期的要溫和，我認為這也會在需求方面看到化學品的好處。

From the supply side, which isn't a big part of what's -- it's suppressing margins today. As we came out -- when we went into the pandemic, there were a lot of chemical projects that got put on hold and deferred investments. And you're now seeing, as we came out of the pandemic and you look at margins in 2021, 2022, very strong chemical margins. We saw those investments get leaned into and a lot of that capacity coming online. So we've got this large capacity additions coming on at the same time where you've had some demand slowdown.

從供應方面來看，這不是什麼的重要組成部分 - 它正在抑制今天的利潤率。當我們出來時——當我們進入大流行時，有很多化學項目被擱置並推遲了投資。你現在看到，當我們從大流行中走出來時，你會看到 2021 年、2022 年的利潤率非常高的化學利潤率。我們看到這些投資得到了利用，並且很多產能都上線了。因此，在需求放緩的同時，我們也有大量的產能增加。

So I think what we're seeing play out here is that what I would say is the typical supply-demand swings in that commodity cycle, exacerbated somewhat by the effects of the pandemic still kind of playing itself out, but not inconsistent with what we had anticipated coming out of the pandemic. And so it will be -- it will take a little time for that demand to pick up and then fill that capacity, but we'll get back on the growth trajectory and markets will get tight again. So that's how we're thinking about the chemical business.

因此，我認為我們在這裡看到的是，我要說的是商品週期中典型的供需波動，大流行的影響在某種程度上加劇了這種波動，但這種波動仍在繼續，但與我們的看法並不矛盾已經預料到會從大流行中走出來。因此，需求回升並填補產能需要一些時間，但我們將回到增長軌道，市場將再次緊張。這就是我們對化學業務的看法。

With respect to our projects, feel really good about. We had to pause those, as you know, coming out of the pandemic, where we had to make some tough choices about how we spend our capital. We'd never done that before in terms of stopping some projects in midstream. But again, I'd tell you, the organization did a great job of putting those on pause, preserving where we are at, continuing to work with contractors to drive efficiency. And now we're bringing those back on basically in line with the plans that we've laid out in the pandemic.

關於我們的項目，感覺真的很好。如您所知，我們不得不暫停那些從大流行中走出來的事情，我們不得不就如何使用我們的資金做出一些艱難的選擇。在中途停止某些項目方面，我們以前從未這樣做過。但我要再次告訴你，該組織在暫停這些方面做得很好，保留了我們所處的位置，繼續與承包商合作以提高效率。現在，我們基本上按照我們在大流行病中製定的計劃恢復了這些。

So we just brought on the polypropylene unit in Baton Rouge. We've got our Baytown, Vistamaxx and LAO projects, which we anticipate coming on here middle of this year. And then China 1 is making really good progress and expect that to come on in 2025. So I think all those investments, we feel really good about and are on the path that we had anticipated.

所以我們剛剛在巴吞魯日引進了聚丙烯裝置。我們已經有了 Baytown、Vistamaxx 和 LAO 項目，我們預計這些項目將在今年年中進行。然後 China 1 取得了非常好的進展，預計將在 2025 年實現。所以我認為所有這些投資，我們感覺非常好，並且正走在我們預期的道路上。

We'll go next to Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們將與美國銀行的道格萊格特一起去。

I don't know which, whether you or Kathy, which 1 of you 2 would like to take this, but I want to ask you about your treatment of the European windfall taxes. My understanding is you are, I guess, suing to try and get some resolution there and treating these as nonrecurring. So can you walk us through your rationale versus how your peers are thinking about this? And any cash impacts that you had to incur in the current quarter, I guess, would be my clarification question.

我不知道是你還是凱西，你們兩個中的哪一個願意接受這個，但我想問一下你們對歐洲暴利稅的處理方式。我的理解是，我猜你是在起訴，試圖在那裡獲得一些解決方案，並將這些視為非經常性的。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您的理由以及您的同行對此的看法？我想，你在本季度必須承擔的任何現金影響將是我的澄清問題。

Sure. So I'll first just talk about the financial impact. In the current quarter, we wouldn't have had material impacts. Obviously, there were some countries in Europe that had passed incremental taxes earlier this year, so I'll point to Italy and the U.K. as an example. And so we would have been accruing those appropriately. You would have seen, as part of our identified items, that we booked $1.8 billion associated with 2022 overall increased additional European taxes.

當然。所以我首先只談談財務影響。在本季度，我們不會產生實質性影響。顯然，今年早些時候歐洲一些國家已經通過了增量稅，所以我將以意大利和英國為例。所以我們會適當地積累這些。您會看到，作為我們確定項目的一部分，我們登記了與 2022 年整體增加的額外歐洲稅收相關的 18 億美元。

Now in terms of the cash impact of that, it doesn't really hit in 2022. We just took the -- we took the overall accrual. And those payments will end up occurring both in 2023 and in 2024. It just depends on the individual countries. But if I take an overall step back, I'd say we looked at what happened in the EU and said both is not legal and it's the opposite of what is needed, right? So what's needed right now is more supply. And instead, what's been put in place is a penalty on the broad energy sector.

現在就其現金影響而言，它並沒有真正影響到 2022 年。我們只是採用了 - 我們採用了整體應計費用。這些付款最終將在 2023 年和 2024 年發生。這取決於各個國家/地區。但如果我後退一步，我會說我們研究了歐盟發生的事情，並說這兩者都是不合法的，而且與需要的相反，對吧？所以現在需要的是更多的供應。相反，已經實施的是對廣泛的能源部門的懲罰。

So I'd contrast that with what's happened more recently in the United States with the Inflation Reduction Act, right? There, you see policy that's put out to incent industry, both to accelerate technology and to accelerate investment that's greatly needed, especially in areas where the industries in terms of lowering emissions are still pretty nascent, things like hydrogen and CCS. And you're already seeing investments start to flow into those industries.

因此，我會將其與美國最近發生的通貨膨脹減少法案進行對比，對嗎？在那裡，你會看到為激勵行業而出台的政策，既要加速技術發展，又要加速急需的投資，尤其是在減排行業仍處於起步階段的領域，例如氫和 CCS。你已經看到投資開始流入這些行業。

And I would just add, Doug, I think, obviously, we've been engaged with governments throughout Europe. And I do think there is a sensitivity to the impact on future investments and industry's appetite to continue to invest in what is a challenging market environment in the first place with respect to Europe becoming more uncertain and less stable.

我想補充一點，道格，我認為，很明顯，我們一直在與整個歐洲的政府接觸。而且我確實認為，對於未來投資的影響以及行業繼續投資於充滿挑戰的市場環境的興趣，首先是因為歐洲變得更加不確定和不穩定。

So I think there was some concern going into this. And my suspicion will be many an industry, this will be yet another reason to pull back on their investments in Europe. And I'm not sure you're going to then see that begin to propagate around the world just because of the negative impact it has on an industry that requires a stable policy and some certainty when you're making the size of investments that the industry makes over the time horizon that we make them in. So my sense is that there will be a lot of unintended negative consequences that come from this. And as that manifests itself, a lot less appetite for doing this.

所以我認為對此有一些擔憂。我懷疑很多行業，這將是他們撤回在歐洲投資的又一個原因。而且我不確定你是否會看到它開始在世界範圍內傳播只是因為它對一個需要穩定政策和一定確定性的行業產生了負面影響，當你進行投資規模時行業改變了我們製造它們的時間範圍。所以我的感覺是，這會帶來很多意想不到的負面後果。正如這表明的那樣，這樣做的胃口要小得多。

We'll go next to Alastair Syme with Citi.

我們將與 Citi 一起去 Alastair Syme 旁邊。

Darren, can you just make some sort of high-level comments about the competitive landscape you see across the business? I know this is a broad question, but in the Upstream, Energy Products, Low Carbon Solutions, how do you see competitors behaving?

達倫，你能就你在整個行業看到的競爭格局發表一些高層次的評論嗎？我知道這是一個廣泛的問題，但在上游、能源產品、低碳解決方案中，您如何看待競爭對手的行為？

Sure. Yes, this is obviously a real important focus area for us. And let me just maybe start with a broad strategy and philosophy that you've seen us executing here over the last 5 years. And as I mentioned on CNBC this morning, I think we see that paying off with respect to the profit margins and the improvements that we're seeing in the profit margins.

當然。是的，這顯然是我們真正重要的重點領域。讓我從您在過去 5 年中看到我們在這裡執行的廣泛戰略和理念開始。正如我今天早上在 CNBC 上提到的那樣，我認為我們看到了利潤率方面的回報以及我們在利潤率方面看到的改善。

If you look at 2012, when we had our last -- or higher revenues than we've got today, we made more money this year with less revenues, and that's really a function of the improvement in net profit margin where we went from about 10% net profit margin in 2012 to 14% in 2022. So I think a reflection of the work that we've been doing to better position ourselves competitively.

如果你看看 2012 年，當我們獲得最後一次收入時——或者比今天更高的收入，我們今年在收入減少的情況下賺了更多的錢，這實際上是我們從大約開始的淨利潤率提高的一個函數2012 年 10% 的淨利潤率到 2022 年 14%。所以我認為這反映了我們一直在做的工作，以更好地定位自己的競爭力。

If I go down each of the sectors that we're in, I'll start with the Upstream where our emphasis has really been making sure that our -- the projects that we're pursuing are advantaged versus industry and, very importantly, are on the left-hand side of the cost-of-supply curve.

如果我深入了解我們所處的每個行業，我將從上游開始，我們的重點確實是確保我們 - 我們正在追求的項目相對於行業具有優勢，而且非常重要的是，在供應成本曲線的左側。

So our strategy there is we can't call the cycles, we can't predict where the markets will go and over what time frame, but we can control the cost of the barrels that we're bringing on and making sure that irrespective of the environment that we find ourselves in, that we are competitively positioned versus our competition and that our barrels are lower cost. And that's been the strategy.

所以我們的策略是我們不能稱之為周期，我們不能預測市場將走向何方以及在什麼時間範圍內，但我們可以控制我們帶來的桶的成本並確保無論我們發現自己所處的環境，我們與競爭對手相比具有競爭優勢，而且我們的桶成本更低。這就是策略。

And then for the portfolio where we don't see some of those advantages is to exit those businesses into high-grade portfolio. That's what we've been doing. I think you're seeing the benefits of that. We've also been very focused on kind of leaning in when others lean out, to use the language I used in the press release. And that, I think, is paying off as well. And I think resource owners around the world recognize our commitment to that industry and our capabilities with respect to effectively producing barrels.

然後對於我們看不到其中一些優勢的投資組合，就是將這些業務退出到高檔投資組合中。這就是我們一直在做的。我認為您正在看到這樣做的好處。我們也一直非常專注於在其他人向外傾斜時向內傾斜，使用我在新聞稿中使用的語言。我認為，這也得到了回報。而且我認為世界各地的資源所有者都認識到我們對該行業的承諾以及我們在有效生產桶方面的能力。

So I think that's what we're doing there. I think we're very well positioned. We've got a really good portfolio, I think, a competitively advantaged portfolio, not only in the cost of supply, but in the quantity and the quality of the projects that we've got there.

所以我認為這就是我們在那裡所做的。我認為我們的定位非常好。我認為，我們有一個非常好的投資組合，一個具有競爭優勢的投資組合，不僅在供應成本方面，而且在我們所擁有的項目的數量和質量方面。

In the chemical business, it's really around focused on performance products and making sure that we're leveraging our technology to develop products that have a high value to customers and, therefore, a higher margin. We build world-scale facilities, start them out on commodity grades and then quickly upgrade those and fill transition to performance products. That strategy continues to play out well. We're continuing to see a lot of pull on our performance products, and so that's our strategy there. And we continue to invest in that high-end, high-value product slate in the chemical business.

在化工業務中，它真正圍繞著專注於性能產品，並確保我們利用我們的技術開發對客戶具有高價值的產品，因此具有更高的利潤。我們建造世界級的設施，從商品等級開始，然後快速升級這些設施並填補向高性能產品的過渡。該策略繼續發揮良好作用。我們繼續看到我們的性能產品有很大的吸引力，所以這就是我們的戰略。我們繼續投資於化工行業的高端、高價值產品。

In refining, it's really around evolving the yield and the products that we make in our plants. I think contrary to maybe some of the conventional wisdom out there, we actually think the refineries that we're investing in position us well for, again, a very uncertain future, continuing to make the products that society needs today and doing that across a very diversified slate of products, so think chemicals, fuels products and lubricants; and then at the same time, investing to produce low-emissions fuels to address the low-carbon demand.

在精煉中，它實際上是圍繞著提高產量和我們在工廠生產的產品。我認為可能與那裡的一些傳統智慧相反，我們實際上認為，我們正在投資的煉油廠再次為非常不確定的未來做好了準備，繼續生產當今社會需要的產品，並在整個過程中做到這一點產品種類繁多，例如化學品、燃料產品和潤滑油；同時，投資生產低排放燃料以滿足低碳需求。

And as that piece of the market picks up, we've got a really good competitively advantaged base to shift that production, and you see us doing that. The Strathcona project is one example, but we have many, many other concepts in mind to transition our refinery production in line with that demand evolution, and it's really just a function of pacing that.

隨著這塊市場的回升，我們擁有了一個非常好的競爭優勢基地來轉移生產，你看到我們正在這樣做。 Strathcona 項目就是一個例子，但我們還有很多很多其他的想法來根據需求的變化來轉變我們的煉油廠生產，而這實際上只是一個調整節奏的功能。

Again, I think that advantage us versus the rest of competition. Big refining footprint that's going to be needed for these and be advantaged in making low-emissions fuel. So I think we're well positioned there. Our chemical business is well positioned with the technology and the performance products that we're making. So I think we've got a leg up in that space.

同樣，我認為這使我們比其他競爭對手更有優勢。這些需要大的煉油足跡，並有利於製造低排放燃料。所以我認為我們在這方面處於有利地位。我們的化學業務憑藉我們正在製造的技術和高性能產品處於有利地位。所以我認為我們在那個領域有優勢。

And then finally, Low Carbon Solutions, there's a lot of activity in this space, a lot of interest, particularly with the IRA here in the U.S., but more generally around the world, I think a real focus on low-carbon opportunities. I think we're very well positioned there. This is not a game for start-ups. This is -- these are large, world-scale projects that require the kind of project expertise that we have, require the kind of size and balance sheet capacity that we have, requires the technology and operating experience that we have. So there's a lot of, I'd say, skills and capabilities needed in this market that lend themselves and are consistent with our capabilities and advantages.

最後，低碳解決方案，在這個領域有很多活動，很多興趣，特別是在美國的 IRA，但更普遍的是在世界各地，我認為真正關注低碳機會。我認為我們在那裡的位置非常好。這不是適合初創企業的遊戲。這是 - 這些是大型的世界級項目，需要我們擁有的那種項目專業知識，需要我們擁有的那種規模和資產負債表能力，需要我們擁有的技術和運營經驗。因此，我想說，這個市場需要很多技能和能力，這些技能和能力與我們的能力和優勢相一致。

So I think it will take a while for that to shake out, but I am convinced that we are very well competitively positioned in the Low Carbon Solutions business. And if you think about security of supply and counting on your partner to, say, sequester carbon for 100-plus years, I think you're going to want somebody who's been around for a while and knows how to do that. And I think we're the company to do that. If you want somebody who's going to guarantee that when they say they're going to have the barrels available to you, they're there, I think people will look to ExxonMobil to deliver on that. I feel pretty good about how we're positioned there as well.

所以我認為這需要一段時間才能擺脫困境，但我相信我們在低碳解決方案業務中處於非常有利的競爭地位。如果你考慮供應安全並指望你的合作夥伴，比如說，封存碳 100 多年，我想你會想要一個已經存在了一段時間並且知道如何做到這一點的人。我認為我們是這樣做的公司。如果你想要有人保證當他們說他們會為你提供桶時，他們就在那裡，我認為人們會期待埃克森美孚來實現這一點。我對我們在那裡的定位也感覺很好。

We'll go next to Stephen Richardson with Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將與 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Richardson 一起討論。

A couple for Kathy, if I may. One, I was wondering if you could just address the balance sheet and how we're thinking about the differences in the cycle. So obviously, significant deleveraging and a 5% net debt to cap, I know that's not your target, but it is notable. So just wondering if you could address at what point do you start to think of the balance sheet as a bit of a drag and also your willingness to kind of continue to delever here, acknowledging that there was a lot of times in the corporation's history where the balance sheet was effectively unlevered.

如果可以的話，給凱西一對。第一，我想知道你是否可以解決資產負債表以及我們如何考慮週期中的差異。很明顯，顯著去槓桿化和 5% 的淨債務上限，我知道這不是你的目標，但值得注意。所以只是想知道你是否可以解決你在什麼時候開始認為資產負債表有點拖累以及你願意繼續在這裡去槓桿化，承認在公司的歷史上有很多次資產負債表實際上是去槓桿化的。

So I would start by saying we view our balance sheet very much as a competitive advantage, right? And we know that during the up part of the cycle, we've got to build a fortressed balance sheet to make sure we have all the firepower we need and all the flexibility we need to then manage the downturn, which will inevitably come.

所以我首先要說我們將資產負債表視為一種競爭優勢，對嗎？而且我們知道，在周期的上升階段，我們必須建立一個堅固的資產負債表，以確保我們擁有所需的全部火力和所需的所有靈活性，以應對不可避免的經濟衰退。

So that's how we think about the balance sheet. I think we've made terrific progress. I mean, if you look overall this year, we paid down about $7 billion of debt. You already mentioned that our net debt to cap is about 5%. We obviously also learned a number of lessons during the pandemic, and we have said we have a willingness to carry a higher cash balance. Our cash balance is around $30 billion right now.

這就是我們對資產負債表的看法。我認為我們已經取得了巨大的進步。我的意思是，如果你看今年的整體情況，我們償還了大約 70 億美元的債務。您已經提到我們的淨債務上限約為 5%。顯然，我們在大流行期間也吸取了一些教訓，我們已經表示願意持有更高的現金餘額。我們的現金餘額目前約為 300 億美元。

So I'd say, overall, at any given point in time, our cash balance is ultimately going to depend on how the market environment ensues. But we know having a really strong balance sheet is a competitive advantage for us. We've been very clear about our capital allocation priorities. And at the very top of that priority list is making sure we're consistently investing in advantaged projects, right?

所以我想說，總的來說，在任何給定的時間點，我們的現金餘額最終將取決於市場環境的變化。但我們知道擁有真正強大的資產負債表對我們來說是一個競爭優勢。我們一直非常清楚我們的資本分配優先事項。最重要的是確保我們一直投資於優勢項目，對吧？

We're in a quite good position in terms of having a very rich portfolio of advantaged projects, which we're bringing forward. And I think we've taken a very balanced approach in ultimately how we're sharing our rewards with shareholders. In 2022, we ended up distributing about $15 billion in dividends and $15 billion in a share repurchase program, so ensuring that we just have sustainable, growing, competitive dividends and efficiently returning cash to shareholders.

在我們提出的非常豐富的優勢項目組合方面，我們處於非常有利的位置。我認為我們在最終如何與股東分享回報方面採取了一種非常平衡的方法。 2022 年，我們最終分配了約 150 億美元的股息和 150 億美元的股票回購計劃，以確保我們擁有可持續的、不斷增長的、有競爭力的股息，並有效地向股東返還現金。

So that's how we think about it. And we are at the part of the cycle where you would expect us to see a very strong balance sheet, and we're very focused on ensuring that that's indeed what we have.

這就是我們的想法。我們正處於週期的一部分，您會期望我們看到非常強勁的資產負債表，我們非常專注於確保這確實是我們所擁有的。

We'll go next to Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將與 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin 一起討論。

I'll ask about M&A actually because you're describing a number of advantages that are very unique to ExxonMobil, not just at a corporate level, but even in individual asset classes, for example, that you might be in the early stages of efficiency and productivity gains in the Permian, which is really different than a lot of other operators are saying.

我會問併購實際上是因為你描述了埃克森美孚非常獨特的一些優勢，不僅在公司層面，而且甚至在個別資產類別中，例如，你可能處於效率的早期階段和二疊紀的生產力提高，這與許多其他運營商所說的確實不同。

So it seems like a opportunity to consolidate and create a lot of value, but at the same time, there's other countervailing forces against that. So maybe at this point, it would be great to just hear your thoughts on the overall M&A landscape and what kind of opportunities do you see and then also in the context of Kathy's comments on the balance sheet, which is obviously set up very well right now.

因此，這似乎是一個鞏固和創造大量價值的機會，但與此同時，還有其他抵消力量。所以也許在這一點上，很高興聽到你對整體併購前景的看法以及你看到什麼樣的機會，然後再結合凱西對資產負債表的評論，這顯然是非常正確的現在。

Yes, sure. Thanks. And I'll touch on that and maybe let's see if Kathy has got anything to add. I think the point that you make is exactly the right one, which is looking at where we can take advantage of our capabilities and skills to bring additional value to acquisition targets. And that's really where we put our focus is where can we leverage what we're good at and bring value above and beyond what potential acquisition would be able to do without us. That's the focus area.

是的，當然。謝謝。我會談到這一點，也許讓我們看看 Kathy 是否有任何要補充的內容。我認為你提出的觀點是正確的，它正在研究我們可以在哪裡利用我們的能力和技能為收購目標帶來額外價值。而這正是我們真正關注的地方，我們可以在哪裡利用我們擅長的東西，並帶來超越沒有我們的潛在收購所能做到的價值。那是重點領域。

And I think we are in the area that you talked about. We do think with time, the work we've been doing in the Permian will provide a value opportunity that we can leverage when we -- when the market is right. And I think expectations start to align around values from a buyer standpoint as well as a seller standpoint. And so there's an element of that where it's difficult to go in and buy at the top of a commodity cycle.

我認為我們在您談到的領域。我們確實認為隨著時間的推移，我們在二疊紀所做的工作將提供一個價值機會，我們可以在市場合適的時候利用這個機會。而且我認為，無論是從買方的角度還是從賣方的角度來看，期望都開始圍繞價值進行調整。因此，其中有一個因素很難在商品週期的頂部進入和購買。

You tend to want to -- at least I want to focus in on where you see more, I'd say, longer-term price cycles being priced into assets. That will be one of the functions or one of the things that you've got to consider in this space. But it really is and we continue to look for where we see the opportunity of bringing value for undeveloped resources in the Permian.

你傾向於——至少我想把重點放在你看到更多的地方，我想說，長期價格週期被計入資產。這將是您在這個空間中必須考慮的功能之一或事情之一。但它確實是，我們繼續尋找我們在哪裡看到為二疊紀未開發資源帶來價值的機會。

I think in the Low Carbon Solutions space, it's a very early business to earn a whole lot of opportunities there in that space, but with time, that could develop. And obviously, it's challenged in the chemical space with respect to the technology that we bring to bear on existing assets, but it's something that we continue to look at.

我認為在低碳解決方案領域，在該領域獲得大量機會是一項非常早期的業務，但隨著時間的推移，它可能會發展。顯然，就我們對現有資產施加的技術而言，它在化學領域面臨挑戰，但這是我們繼續關注的問題。

Kathy, anything to add there?

凱西，有什麼要補充的嗎？

So the only other thing I would add is, ultimately, we're focused on continuing to high-grade our portfolio overall. You would have seen in the past year in what's been a more buoyant market environment that we've made a number of divestments where others saw more value in those assets than we thought.

因此，我唯一要補充的另一件事是，最終，我們將專注於繼續提升我們的整體投資組合。在過去的一年裡，你會看到在一個更加活躍的市場環境中，我們已經進行了一些撤資，而其他人在這些資產中看到的價值比我們想像的要多。

So we're always looking at both sides of this equation. And depending on the market and what's available and, again, how we think about synergies, how we think about retention and value, we'll look to transact, but only when we think it's going to earn good returns for our shareholders.

所以我們一直在關注這個等式的兩邊。根據市場和可用資源，以及我們如何看待協同效應，我們如何看待保留和價值，我們會考慮進行交易，但前提是我們認為這會為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。

We'll go next to Jason Gabelman with Cowen.

我們將和 Cowen 一起去 Jason Gabelman 旁邊。

The first one is for Kathy, just on a couple of items that I think impacted 4Q earnings. You had highlighted on the last earnings call that downstream trading benefits were particularly strong in 3Q, and I was wondering if that continued into the fourth quarter. And you also highlighted in the 8-K for 4Q earnings that inventory impacts would be a headwind, and I was hoping if you could quantify that as well.

第一個是給凱西的，只是關於我認為影響第四季度收益的幾個項目。您在上次財報電話會議上強調下游貿易收益在第三季度特別強勁，我想知道這種情況是否會持續到第四季度。你還在 8-K 中強調了第四季度的收益，庫存影響將是一個不利因素，我希望你也能量化這一點。

Yes. And so we, obviously, in the third quarter, quantified that we had a number of favorable timing impacts that we didn't necessarily think we're going to repeat. So when you think about Energy Products performance in this quarter, you should think about the absence of some of those positives that we had overall last quarter, right?

是的。因此，很明顯，我們在第三季度量化了我們有一些有利的時間影響，我們不一定認為我們會重複這些影響。因此，當您考慮本季度的能源產品業績時，您應該考慮一下我們上個季度總體上缺乏的一些積極因素，對嗎？

So if I look at that just on a quarterly basis, overall, we had from third quarter to fourth quarter in Energy Products unsettled derivatives of about $1 billion as a headwind. That's really the absence of largely a positive that we would have had in the third quarter.

因此，如果我僅按季度來看，總體而言，從第三季度到第四季度，我們在能源產品方面有大約 10 億美元的未結算衍生品作為逆風。這實際上是我們在第三季度所擁有的主要積極因素的缺失。

And then again, in the third quarter, we talked about the fact that we have a program associated with achieving ratable pricing in our refinery runs. And that had given us, again, I'll call it, benefit in the third quarter. And in the fourth quarter, price timing differences were negative to the tune of about $400 million.

然後，在第三季度，我們又談到了一個事實，即我們有一個與在煉油廠運行中實現合理定價相關的計劃。這讓我們再次，我稱之為，在第三季度受益。而在第四季度，價格時間差異為負，約為 4 億美元。

I think the most important thing, though, is to actually take a step back and look at the full year results because what we've told you during the year is, look, we're going to have these price timing impacts, especially mark-to-market on open derivative, positions are going to move around quarter-to-quarter and during the year. But if you looked at Energy Products on a full year basis, our unsettled derivatives were basically neutral, right?

不過，我認為最重要的是實際上退後一步，看看全年的業績，因為我們在這一年告訴你的是，看，我們將產生這些價格時間影響，尤其是馬克- 公開衍生品上市後，頭寸將按季度和年內變動。但如果你從全年的角度來看能源產品，我們未結算的衍生品基本上是中性的，對吧？

And price timing impacts, and again, I would have referred to this coming largely out of our priced inventory program, were about a $400 million negative when we look at just 2021 to 2022. So like we have said all along, the quarter-to-quarter impact may be a little bit more volatile. But when you look at the full year results, it tends to settle itself out.

價格時間影響，我會再次提到這主要來自我們的定價庫存計劃，當我們只看 2021 年到 2022 年時，大約有 4 億美元的負面影響。所以就像我們一直說的那樣，季度到-季度影響可能會更加不穩定。但是，當您查看全年業績時，它往往會自行解決。

Got it. And then on the inventory, the year-end inventory impacts?

知道了。然後在庫存上，年末庫存有什麼影響？

If you looked at overall year-end inventory impacts, they would have had the biggest impact in our Upstream business. And as part of the inventory adjustments we made, we had to look at gas inventories overall in Europe with prices declining pretty significantly. If you looked at our overall year-end adjustments to inventory outside of that, I would have called them kind of neutral to modestly favorable with the largest favorability incurring in Energy Products.

如果您查看年終庫存的總體影響，它們將對我們的上游業務產生最大的影響。作為我們進行的庫存調整的一部分，我們不得不查看歐洲整體的天然氣庫存，價格大幅下降。如果你看看我們對除此之外的庫存的整體年終調整，我會稱它們是中性到適度有利的，其中能源產品的有利程度最大。

Got it. And then my follow-up is just on downstream maintenance, which it seems like refining maintenance will be particularly high in 1Q. I wonder if that's just kind of a bunch of things getting -- just getting aggregated into 1 quarter, if it's going to be a higher year overall moving through the year, if there's something else going on. Just a little more color on that number and the outlook for the year would be great.

知道了。然後我的跟進只是關於下游維護，似乎一季度煉油維護將特別高。我想知道這是否只是一堆事情 - 只是匯總到一個季度，如果今年總體上會更高，是否還有其他事情發生。這個數字再多一點顏色，今年的前景就會很好。

Yes, I'll take that one. I would just say turnaround timing is really a function of -- and the spend that we have in that area is really a function of the mix and the units that we're bringing in at the different -- into turnarounds around the different refineries and the age of those units.

是的，我會拿那個。我只想說，周轉時間實際上是一個函數——我們在該領域的支出實際上是一個組合的函數，我們在不同的地方引入的單位——進入不同煉油廠的周轉和這些單位的年齡。

And so I wouldn't take away some structural change or outlook for the year. It's really just a function of which refineries and which units that those refineries are coming into turnaround and the work that we have to do to get those units back on their maintenance schedule. So that's what's happening there.

因此，我不會取消今年的一些結構性變化或展望。這實際上只是關於哪些煉油廠和這些煉油廠正在進入周轉的單元以及我們必須做的工作才能使這些單元恢復到維護計劃的功能。這就是那裡發生的事情。

We'll go next to Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們將和 Piper Sandler 一起去 Ryan Todd 旁邊。

Maybe a higher-level question, following up on some of your comments earlier on competitive position. Relative to past cycles, the competitive environment in upstream oil looks far different than many times in the past with both fewer players in the industry and many of your largest peers strategically under-investing in oil. How does it -- how do you think this impacts global supply over time? And how does it impact your -- as you look forward, how does it impact your competitive position within the space? Does it open the door for additional opportunities for you?

也許是一個更高層次的問題，跟進您之前關於競爭地位的一些評論。相對於過去的周期，上游石油的競爭環境看起來與過去許多時候大不相同，該行業的參與者越來越少，而且許多最大的同行在戰略上對石油的投資不足。它是如何 - 你認為這會如何影響全球供應？它如何影響你——正如你所期待的，它如何影響你在該領域的競爭地位？它是否為您打開了獲得更多機會的大門？

And in E&P projects, does it -- whether in terms of expiration leasehold, competition or project development or even within the asset transactions in the M&A space, have you seen an impact to date? And how do you think that evolves in the coming years with the changed competitive landscape?

在 E&P 項目中，無論是在到期租賃、競爭或項目開發方面，還是在併購領域的資產交易方面，您是否看到了迄今為止的影響？隨著競爭格局的變化，您如何看待未來幾年的發展？

Yes, thanks. I'll take that one, Ryan. It's -- I think you hit on a very good point, which is -- and the point that we've made historically is there has -- we are under-investing as an industry in this space. And in the depletion business, we are not keeping up with that depletion or not offsetting it and covering the growth. You find yourself in tight markets.

是啊謝謝。我要那個，瑞安。這是——我認為你說到了一個非常好的觀點，那就是——我們在歷史上提出的觀點是——我們作為一個行業在這個領域的投資不足。在消耗業務中，我們沒有跟上這種消耗，也沒有抵消它並覆蓋增長。您發現自己處於緊張的市場中。

And I think as the broader public narrative has moved in this space and some of our competitors have stepped back for investment there, that does tighten the amount of capacity that's coming on and the supply that gets brought in on over time. And until you have competitive alternatives, lower emissions, competitive alternatives that address the full set of needs for society, there's going to continue to be a demand for oil and gas and oil products.

而且我認為，隨著更廣泛的公眾敘述在這個領域發生了變化，我們的一些競爭對手已經退縮在那裡進行投資，這確實會收緊即將到來的產能和隨著時間的推移帶來的供應量。除非你有有競爭力的替代品，更低的排放，有競爭力的替代品來滿足社會的全套需求，否則對石油、天然氣和石油產品的需求將繼續存在。

And so I think you're seeing the potential for continued tight markets. I think we have found, certainly over the last 5 years, that our continued commitment to strengthening the capabilities that will allow us to bring on competitively sourced oil and gas and do that in an environmentally responsible way, that, that has resonated and is being recognized by resource owners around the world.

所以我認為你看到了市場持續緊張的可能性。我認為我們已經發現，當然在過去 5 年中，我們繼續致力於加強能力，這將使我們能夠以對環境負責的方式帶來具有競爭力的石油和天然氣，這已經引起共鳴並且正在得到世界各地資源所有者的認可。

And so I do think that does give us a bit of an advantage with respect to the opportunity set. And I would say that we continue to work to earn the advantage by developing those resources very effectively, bringing projects on ahead of schedule, under budget and doing things that, frankly, some of our competitors are challenged to do. And so I think it's a very supportive environment that we find ourselves in. The focus that we have in this space, I think, is appreciated and gives us an advantage versus the rest of the competition.

所以我確實認為這確實給我們帶來了機會集方面的一些優勢。我要說的是，我們將繼續努力通過非常有效地開發這些資源來贏得優勢，提前在預算內完成項目，坦率地說，我們的一些競爭對手很難做到。因此，我認為這是一個非常支持我們的環境。我認為，我們在這個領域的關注受到讚賞，並使我們在競爭中佔據優勢。

And I'll also add that we're doing that while, at the same time, balancing the risk of the transition and investing in the low emission side of the equation. And so we've got this unique position where the same core capabilities that we're using to drive value in our traditional businesses, we're using those and leveraging them to drive value in the Low Carbon Solutions business and keeping a very keen eye on the developments in all those industries and making sure that we adjust our investments in our strategy and our allocation of capital based on the developments that we're seeing in those space.

我還要補充一點，我們正在這樣做，同時平衡轉型的風險和投資等式的低排放方面。因此，我們擁有這個獨特的位置，我們正在使用相同的核心能力來推動我們傳統業務的價值，我們正在使用這些並利用它們來推動低碳解決方案業務的價值，並保持非常敏銳的眼光關於所有這些行業的發展，並確保我們根據我們在這些領域看到的發展調整我們的戰略投資和資本分配。

So we've got optionality and we've got flexibility. And we've got a core set of competencies that lend themselves to every part of that -- of those businesses and across our portfolio. So I feel really good about that. And I think the folks that were out there or the partners that we're looking to partner with recognize that and value it. So I think we'll see that manifest itself in the deals that we continue to do and the businesses that we continue to grow.

所以我們有選擇性和靈活性。我們擁有一套核心能力，適用於這些業務和我們投資組合的每一部分。所以我對此感覺很好。而且我認為在那裡的人或我們正在尋求合作的合作夥伴認識到這一點並重視它。所以我認為我們會在我們繼續進行的交易和我們繼續發展的業務中看到這一點。

We'll go next to John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們將與 JPMorgan 的 John Royall 一起去。

I just wanted to ask on the Beaumont expansion and how the ramp is going there. And in terms of profitability, we've got Midland trading above Cushing now, but that's probably not significant given diesel cracks are very, very strong. So just wondering on the profitability of that project out of the gate relative to how you've been thinking about it when you sanctioned.

我只是想問一下 Beaumont 擴建項目以及那裡的斜坡情況。就盈利能力而言，我們現在的 Midland 交易價格高於庫欣，但鑑於柴油裂縫非常非常強勁，這可能並不重要。所以只是想知道那個項目的盈利能力與你在批准時的想法有關。

Yes, I'll take it. As I said before, if you look at Beaumont, when we -- the concept of that project was developed 5-plus years ago. And it really was looking at what I would call the feedstocks and intermediate balances going into that refinery and the options that we had to optimize the logistics piece of the equation and justified that project purely on logistics optimizations and lower-cost transportation to feed that refinery. And that's kind of how we thought about that, so that is robust to wherever you're at within the cycle.

是的，我會接受的。正如我之前所說，如果你看看 Beaumont，當我們——那個項目的概念是在 5 多年前開發的。它真的是在研究我所說的進入煉油廠的原料和中間平衡，以及我們必須優化方程式物流部分的選項，並證明該項目純粹基於物流優化和低成本運輸來為煉油廠提供原料.這就是我們考慮的方式，因此無論您在周期中處於什麼位置，它都是穩健的。

If you layer on where we're at today in the commodity cycle and the fact that we are at on the very high end of refining margins, my expectation is that, that refining expansion will do much, much better than what we -- the basis on which we appropriate it just because we find the timing of where we find ourselves in that cycle.

如果你把我們今天在商品週期中所處的位置以及我們處於煉油利潤率的高端這一事實放在一起，我的預期是，煉油擴張將比我們 -我們據以適當使用它的基礎只是因為我們找到了我們在那個週期中所處位置的時間。

And that's good news. I mean that's, I think, an important part of the investments that we make to make sure that we're kind of participating in all phases of the cycle. But I think even better news is we're not depending on that to generate a return from that investment. So even as we move through the commodity cycle and at some point in the future, we find refining margins start to come off, and eventually, we'll find ourselves in the bottom of the refining commodity cycle.

這是個好消息。我的意思是，我認為這是我們為確保我們參與週期的所有階段而進行的投資的重要組成部分。但我認為更好的消息是我們不依賴於從該投資中獲得回報。因此，即使我們在商品週期中移動，在未來的某個時候，我們發現煉油利潤率開始下降，最終，我們將發現自己處於商品煉油週期的底部。

That expansion will position our Beaumont refinery very well and will, I think, continue to be incremental to the value of that refinery. So feel really positive about that. We're making good progress. We mechanically completed that a little ahead of schedule, and we're making good progress on ramping that facility up.

這種擴張將使我們的 Beaumont 煉油廠處於非常有利的地位，並且我認為，它將繼續增加該煉油廠的價值。所以對此感到非常積極。我們正在取得良好進展。我們機械地提前一點完成了這項工作，並且我們在提高該設施方面取得了良好進展。

Our last question will be from Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

我們的最後一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

Just wanted to follow up on Guyana. I think there was a lot of expectation at the Investor Day -- well, won't be an Investor Day, but there'd be a potentially big update on Guyana. I know things are going well there from a development standpoint, but I was just hoping you could address anything on the resource side and any update at all from a PSC political side. There's been a little noise out there on that end.

只是想跟進圭亞那。我認為投資者日有很多期望——好吧，不會是投資者日，但圭亞那可能會有重大更新。我知道從發展的角度來看一切進展順利，但我只是希望你能解決資源方面的任何問題以及 PSC 政治方面的任何更新。那邊傳來一點聲音。

Yes. I think the point you made, we're making really good progress. As we've said, we brought Liza 2 in ahead of schedule. We anticipate bringing Payara in ahead of schedule. We brought Liza 2 up very well, brought that online quickly and began producing at above nameplate capacity in the fourth quarter. And so I feel really good about the quality of those projects and the operational ability to bring those up and run them effectively, making good progress there. We've got Yellowtail in for government approval. I expect that to be a bigger FPSO.

是的。我認為你提出的觀點，我們正在取得很好的進展。正如我們所說，我們提前推出了 Liza 2。我們預計會提前引入 Payara。我們把 Liza 2 開發得很好，很快就上線了，並在第四季度開始以高於銘牌的產能生產。因此，我對這些項目的質量以及有效啟動和運行這些項目並取得良好進展的運營能力感到非常滿意。我們已經讓 Yellowtail 獲得政府批准。我希望那是一個更大的 FPSO。

So we're making -- I would say we're at or ahead of the schedule and ahead of the expectations that we've talked about historically with Guyana. The resource base, as you know, continues to grow. We continue to make discoveries. We continue to really optimize around those discoveries. And that's a really big part of developing these projects is as we are in parallel to developing projects, continuing the exploration and then continuing to better quantify and qualify that resource base is making sure that our projects are optimized around that. So there's a balance that we're striking around how best to optimize, and feel good about what we're doing there. And frankly, I think the government feels really good about what we're doing there.

所以我們正在製作 - 我會說我們已經達到或提前完成了計劃，並且超出了我們在歷史上與圭亞那討論過的期望。如您所知，資源基礎在繼續增長。我們繼續做出發現。我們將繼續真正圍繞這些發現進行優化。這是開發這些項目的一個非常重要的部分，因為我們在開發項目的同時，繼續探索，然後繼續更好地量化和限定資源基礎，確保我們的項目圍繞這一點進行優化。因此，我們正在圍繞如何最好地優化和對我們在那裡所做的事情感覺良好來取得平衡。坦率地說，我認為政府對我們在那裡所做的事情感覺很好。

Importantly, the development of that resource and the value associated with that is manifesting itself in the country, which is a really important part of the equation here. We always said coming into this that this has to be a win-win-win proposition, needs to be a win for the company, it needs to be a win for the government of Guyana and it needs to be a win for the people of Guyana. And that's what we're seeing there, a lot of jobs, a lot of economic opportunity opening up in Guyana.

重要的是，該資源的開發和與之相關的價值正在該國體現出來，這是這裡等式中非常重要的一部分。我們總是說，這必須是一個雙贏的提議，需要為公司贏得勝利，需要為圭亞那政府贏得勝利，需要為圭亞那人民贏得勝利圭亞那。這就是我們在那裡看到的，圭亞那有很多工作，很多經濟機會。

We've just -- we've been working with the Guyanese government around a project to bring in gas power into the country, lower emissions and more reliable. We've got work going on to help bring up some of the other social services in the country. So I think people are seeing the progress. And the fact that we're bringing this on sooner and at lower cost, I think, is a benefit to the government. They recognize the values coming faster than originally anticipated. So it's a -- I think it's a good story of government, I think, and ExxonMobil, got very good relationships, working very constructively. And as I said, it's a win-win-win proposition here and feel good about the progress we're making.

我們剛剛 - 我們一直在與圭亞那政府合作，圍繞一個項目將天然氣發電引入該國，減少排放並提高可靠性。我們正在努力幫助在該國建立其他一些社會服務。所以我認為人們看到了進步。我認為，我們以更低的成本更快地實現這一目標對政府是有利的。他們認識到價值的到來比原先預期的要快。所以這是一個 - 我認為這是一個關於政府的好故事，我認為，埃克森美孚與埃克森美孚建立了非常良好的關係，非常有建設性地工作。正如我所說，這是一個雙贏的提議，對我們正在取得的進展感到滿意。

And any thoughts on the resource base or the next time you'll offer an update on that?

對資源庫有什麼想法，或者下次您會提供更新嗎？

I think as the team continues to drill and then quantify and characterize the results of those drills, when it gets to a material improvement, we'll be out talking about that.

我認為，隨著團隊繼續鑽探，然後量化和描述這些鑽探的結果，當它達到實質性改進時，我們就會出去談論它。

Thank you, everybody, for your questions today. We will post a transcript of our Q&A session on our investor website by the end of the week. Have a nice day, everyone. And I'll turn it back to the operator to conclude our call.

謝謝大家今天的提問。我們將在本週末之前在我們的投資者網站上發布問答環節的文字記錄。祝大家擁有美好的一天。我會把它轉回接線員以結束我們的通話。

This concludes today's call. We thank everyone again for their participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們再次感謝大家的參與。