W R Berkley Corp (WRB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to W. R. Berkley Corporation's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 W. R. Berkley Corporation 2025 年第二季收益電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

The speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of these forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words including, without limitation, believes, expects, or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will, in fact, be achieved.

發言人的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。其中一些前瞻性陳述可以透過前瞻性詞語的使用來識別，包括但不限於相信、預期或估計。我們提醒您，此類前瞻性聲明不應被視為我們所設想的未來計劃、估計或期望實際上將會實現的陳述。

Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results.

請參閱我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，以了解我們經營的商業環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素。

W. R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.

W. R. Berkley Corporation 不承擔任何義務，並明確否認有任何此類義務來更新或更改其前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。現在我想把電話轉給羅伯·伯克利先生。先生，請繼續。

Abby, thank you very much, and thank you to all participants for your time today and your interest in the company. In addition to myself, you also have our Executive Chairman, Bill Berkley, on the call; as well as Rich Baio, our Chief Financial Officer.

艾比，非常感謝你，也感謝所有參與者今天的時間和對公司的關注。除了我自己之外，我們的執行董事長比爾·伯克利 (Bill Berkley) 和首席財務官里奇·巴約 (Rich Baio) 也參加了電話會議。

We're going to follow our typical agenda where momentarily, I'll be handing it over to Rich. He'll run us through some highlights from the quarter. He'll then pass it back to me. I'll offer a few more sound bites and then we look forward to taking people's questions and for that matter, taking the conversation and any direction participants wish to take it.

我們將按照我們的典型議程進行，我暫時將其交給里奇。他將向我們介紹本季的一些亮點。然後他會把它傳回給我。我將提供更多內容，然後我們期待回答大家的問題，並就此進行對話以及參與者希望進行的任何方向的討論。

Before I do hand it over to Rich, perhaps just stating the obvious, it is very much an interesting moment in the property and casualty space. We are reminded of the complications of this industry, an industry where you make a sale before you ultimately truly know your cost of goods sold.

在我將其交給里奇之前，也許只是陳述一個顯而易見的事實，這是財產和意外險領域的一個非常有趣的時刻。我們想起了這個行業的複雜性，在這個行業中，你在最終真正了解銷售成本之前就已經進行了銷售。

We have been grappling with this reality as an industry forever. But there are moments in time when it comes into sharper focus than others. We certainly, over the past several years, have had to grapple with financial or economic inflation and that was combined with social inflation, which we have talked about, and I suspect we'll continue to talk about.

作為一個行業，我們一直在努力應對這一現實。但在某些時刻，這一點比其他時刻更加清晰。當然，在過去幾年中，我們必須努力應對金融或經濟通膨，而且還伴隨著社會通膨，我們已經討論過這個問題，我想我們還會繼續討論這個問題。

But while on the heels of COVID, financial or economic inflation seems to be brought far more under control, there are some real threats to that. Certainly, tariffs are top of mind for all of us. In addition to that, one should not lose sight of what's going on in the labor market and what that may mean for wage inflation over time, particularly around some of the administration policies that they are in the process of putting into place.

然而，儘管在新冠疫情之後，金融或經濟通膨似乎得到了更好的控制，但仍存在一些真正的威脅。當然，關稅是我們所有人最關心的問題。除此之外，人們不應該忽視勞動市場的動態以及這對長期薪資通膨可能意味著什麼，特別是圍繞著他們正在實施的一些行政政策。

And finally, there is the big question around deficits and what that will ultimately mean for the economy. And lastly, to what extent can we expect the US consumers continue to be the driver and allow the economy to remain as resilient as it's been. These are amongst some of the macro questions that we are grappling with.

最後，還有一個大問題是關於赤字以及赤字最終對經濟意味著什麼。最後，我們可以在多大程度上期待美國消費者繼續發揮推動作用，使經濟保持一如既往的彈性。這些是我們正在努力解決的一些宏觀問題。

Obviously, there's applicability to both our underwriting activities and how we think about selecting and pricing risk. And furthermore, I think it goes without saying there's meaningful applicability to the investment portfolio and how we think about positioning that.

顯然，這既適用於我們的核保活動，也適用於我們如何選擇和定價風險。此外，我認為毋庸置疑，它對於投資組合以及我們如何定位它具有有意義的適用性。

So as always, lots of moving pieces trying to not just interpret what they all mean for today, but also how we think about positioning the business going forward. So let me pause there and hand it over to Rich, and I will follow him with a few more sound bites. Rich, over to you, please.

因此，一如既往，許多活動的部分不僅試圖解釋它們對今天的意義，而且還試圖解釋我們如何思考未來的業務定位。所以讓我暫停一下，把時間交給 Rich，然後我會跟著他講幾句。Rich，請交給你了。

Great. Thanks, Rob. The second quarter marked a continuation of strong performance in both underwriting income and net investment income. Net income per diluted share increased 8.7% over the prior year to $1 per share or $401 million with an annualized return on beginning of year equity of 19.1%.

偉大的。謝謝，羅布。第二季核保收入和淨投資收入持續表現強勁。每股攤薄淨收益較前一年成長 8.7%，達到每股 1 美元或 4.01 億美元，年初股本年化報酬率為 19.1%。

The definition of operating earnings commencing with this quarter has been changed to exclude after-tax foreign currency gains and losses. And accordingly, operating earnings were $420 million or $1.05 per share yielding an annualized return on beginning of year equity of 20%.

從本季開始，營業利潤的定義已更改為不包括稅後外匯收益和損失。因此，營業收益為 4.2 億美元，即每股 1.05 美元，年初股本年化報酬率為 20%。

Starting with underwriting performance. Our current accident year combined ratio before cat losses of 3.2 loss ratio points was 88.4%, comprised of an accident year loss ratio excluding cats of 59.9% and an expense ratio of 28.5%. The calendar year combined ratio was 91.6%, resulting in $261 million of underwriting income.

從承保業績開始。我們目前的事故年度綜合損失率為 88.4%，不包括巨災損失，損失率為 3.2 個點，其中包括事故年度損失率為 59.9%，費用率為 28.5%。年度綜合成本率為 91.6%，承保收入為 2.61 億美元。

Cat losses were $99 million in the second quarter of 2025 compared with $90 million or 3.2 loss ratio points in the prior year's quarter. While the industry saw an above-average frequency of severe storms, the point impact of cat losses on our combined ratio remained flat even as the dollar amount of losses marginally increased with the growth in our property book of business over the prior year.

2025 年第二季的巨災損失為 9,900 萬美元，而去年同期的巨災損失為 9,000 萬美元，損失率則為 3.2 點。儘管該行業遭遇嚴重風暴的頻率高於平均水平，但巨災損失對綜合比率的點數影響仍然保持平穩，儘管損失金額隨著上一年財產業務的增長而略有增加。

Drilling down further, the Insurance segment's quarterly accident year loss ratio ex cat was relatively flat year over year and sequentially at 60.7%, bringing the accident year combined ratio before cats to 89%. The Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment's accident year loss ratio ex cat increased to 54.1% with a strong accident year combined ratio before cats of 83.8%. The expense ratio overall was flat at 28.5% and continue to benefit from the growth in net premiums earned, which was a quarterly record of $3.1 billion.

進一步深入研究，保險部門季度事故年度損失率（不含巨災損失）與去年同期相比基本持平，為 60.7%，事故年度綜合損失率（不包括巨災損失）達 89%。再保險和單一險種超額險部門的事故年度損失率（不包括巨災損失）上升至 54.1%，事故年度綜合損失率（不包括巨災損失）高達 83.8%。整體費用率持平於 28.5%，並繼續受益於淨保費收入的成長，該季度淨保費收入創下 31 億美元的新高。

In addition, net premiums written increased to a record $3.4 billion in the quarter with growth in all lines of business in both segments. Record net investment income of $379 million benefited from the ongoing growth in the invested assets from strong operating cash flow and new money rates on fixed maturity securities that remain comfortably above our average book yield.

此外，隨著兩個部門所有業務線的全面成長，本季淨保費收入增至創紀錄的 34 億美元。創紀錄的 3.79 億美元淨投資收入得益於強勁的經營現金流和固定期限證券的新資金利率持續增長，這些利率遠高於我們的平均帳面收益率。

Investment income from fixed maturity securities, excluding Argentine inflation linked securities improved 16.5% year over year with an increase in book yield of 20 basis points to 4.7%.

不包括阿根廷通膨掛鉤證券的固定期限證券的投資收入年增 16.5%，帳面收益率增加 20 個基點至 4.7%。

Our investment funds performed above our expected quarterly range of $10 million to $20 million with strong results of $27 million, driven by transportation, infrastructure, and financial services sectors. The quality of our portfolio remains very strong at AA- with the duration on our fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, increasing from the fourth quarter of 2.6 years to the current quarter of 2.8 years. Foreign currency losses in the quarter of $55 million related to the weakening US dollar relative to most other currencies.

我們的投資基金表現超出了我們預期的季度範圍 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元，在交通運輸、基礎設施和金融服務行業的推動下，業績強勁，達到 2700 萬美元。我們的投資組合品質仍然非常強勁，為 AA-，我們的固定期限投資組合（包括現金和現金等價物）的期限從第四季度的 2.6 年增加到本季度的 2.8 年。本季外匯損失為 5,500 萬美元，與美元兌大多數其他貨幣走弱有關。

Offsetting this income statement loss is an improvement in the currency translation loss and stockholders' equity of $69 million. The effective tax rate was 23.2% in the quarter, which is in line with our expectations for the full year of 2025.

抵銷這筆損益表損失的是貨幣折算損失和股東權益的改善，總額為 6,900 萬美元。本季有效稅率為23.2%，符合我們對2025年全年的預期。

The rate exceeds the US statutory rate of 21% due to taxes on foreign earnings at higher rates and state income taxes. Stockholders' equity increased by more than $380 million or 4.3% over the first quarter of 2025 to a record $9.3 billion. After-tax unrealized investment losses improved by $120 million to a balance of $249 million as of June 30, 2025.

由於對外國收入徵收更高的稅率以及州所得稅，該稅率超過了美國 21% 的法定稅率。股東權益在 2025 年第一季增加了 3.8 億美元，增幅為 4.3%，達到創紀錄的 93 億美元。稅後截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，未實現投資損失改善了 1.2 億美元，餘額為 2.49 億美元。

From a capital management perspective, we paid ordinary and special dividends of $224 million in the quarter, bringing our growth in book value per share before dividends to 6.8% in the quarter and 14.3% on a year-to-date basis. Our balance sheet remains strong with cash and cash equivalents of more than $2 billion and historically low financial leverage of 23.4%.

從資本管理角度來看，我們在本季度支付了 2.24 億美元的普通股和特別股息，使我們的每股帳面價值在本季度增長了 6.8%，年初至今增長了 14.3%。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，現金和現金等價物超過 20 億美元，財務槓桿率處於歷史低點 23.4%。

So in summary, another great quarter with exceptional risk-adjusted returns and excellent underwriting and investment performance. Rob, with that, I'll turn it back to you.

總而言之，這又是一個偉大的季度，具有卓越的風險調整回報和出色的承保和投資績效。羅布，說完這些，我就把它還給你了。

Great. Rich, thank you very much. So maybe just to follow on Rich's comments, a couple of additional thoughts. First, I think as everyone on the call is acutely aware, this is still very much a cyclical industry. As we have discussed in the past, though, one of the changes that has happened over the past, I don't know, sort of 5 to 10 years is a decoupling of product lines as to where they are in the cycle. So the cyclical nature still exists, but where different major product lines are in the cycle, they are certainly no longer in lockstep.

偉大的。里奇，非常感謝你。因此，也許只是為了跟進 Rich 的評論，我還有一些額外的想法。首先，我認為電話會議上的每個人都清楚地意識到，這仍然是一個週期性行業。然而，正如我們過去討論過的，過去 5 到 10 年發生的變化之一就是產品線與其在周期中所處位置的脫鉤。因此，週期性仍然存在，但不同的主要產品線處於週期中，它們肯定不再步調一致。

To that end, a couple of thoughts on the insurance marketplace. One, the property market, clearly, that marketplace is becoming more competitive as we have discussed for a couple of quarters now. Probably two drivers there, one would be a reinsurance marketplace that is becoming more competitive and is willing to provide capacity at a lower rate; and the second piece is as discussed by some of the MGA market, which is becoming clearly more active. And I'll offer a few thoughts on the MGA market a little bit later in my comments.

為此，我對保險市場提出了幾點看法。首先，房地產市場，顯然，正如我們幾個季度以來討論的那樣，市場競爭正在變得更加激烈。可能有兩個驅動因素，一是再保險市場競爭越來越激烈，願意以較低的價格提供保險能力；二是正如一些 MGA 市場所討論的那樣，再保險市場顯然變得更加活躍。稍後我將在評論中對 MGA 市場提出一些看法。

I would tell you that the property market there is a notable bifurcation while the general direction is more competitive. The larger accounts, particularly shared and layered, as we've discussed in the past couple of quarters is where greater competition is the smaller accounts, it's not that there isn't competition, but it pales in comparison to the larger end of town.

我想告訴大家的是，現在的房地產市場出現了明顯的分化，但整體方向是競爭更加激烈。正如我們在過去幾個季度所討論的那樣，較大的帳戶，特別是共享和分層的帳戶，競爭比較小的帳戶更激烈，這並不是說沒有競爭，而是與城鎮較大的一端相比，它顯得微不足道。

As far as commercial transportation, again, another product line where there is a fair amount of activity coming from MGAs. That marketplace, we continue to and others seem to be pushing for rate, but without a doubt, the MGA participants are creating at least a short-term headwind for that market truly going hard.

就商業運輸而言，這是另一條產品線，其中相當多的活動來自 MGAs。我們和其他人似乎仍在推動該市場的發展，但毫無疑問，MGA 參與者至少在短期內為該市場帶來了阻力。

My expectation is that, that's a bit of a kink in the hose if you will, and consequently, it is going to build up pressure and ultimately, we'll inure to the benefit of responsible long-term participates when that snaps and the market shifts.

我的預期是，如果你願意的話，這就像軟管中的一個小扭結，因此，它將會增加壓力，最終，當這種情況發生並且市場發生變化時，我們將受益於負責任的長期參與者。

Professional liability, again, a bit of a mixed bag as we all have a shared appreciation, a very broad space. Just a couple of highlights on D&O. It would seem as though the public D&O market is beginning to find some sense of bottom private and non-for-profit D&O remains particularly competitive as some of, what I would, define as miscellaneous. There is, again, an MGA component to it since people seem to be very fixated on the topic. I thought I'd flag that as well.

專業責任，同樣，有點混雜，因為我們都有共同的欣賞，空間非常廣闊。這只是 D&O 上的幾個亮點。看起來好像公共 D&O 市場開始找到一些底線，而私人和非營利 D&O 仍然特別具有競爭力，因為其中一些（我將其定義為雜項）。由於人們似乎非常關注這個主題，因此其中再次出現了 MGA 成分。我想我也會標記這一點。

As far as the casualty lines, clearly, there is opportunity to get the rate that the product line needs. It is pronounced both in the primary casualty as well as the umbrella and excess.

就傷亡險而言，顯然有機會獲得產品線所需的費率。它在主要傷亡以及雨傘和過剩中都很明顯。

And finally, as far as workers' compensation goes, presumably all had an opportunity to take note of the action coming out of California. I think some time ago, we had flagged for those that were willing to listen that it seemed as though California as opposed to in the more distant past, this time around is out in front of the rest of the market as far as firming. I think the action taken by the commissioner approving 8.7% effective 09/01 is certainly a strong message that was well received by us, and we look forward to more coming behind that.

最後，就工人賠償而言，想必大家都有機會關注加州所採取的行動。我想，不久前，我們曾向那些願意傾聽的人指出，與遙遠的過去相比，這一次，加州似乎在市場走在了其他地區的前面。我認為，專員批准從 2001 年 9 月起將稅率降至 8.7% 的行動無疑是一個強有力的信號，我們對此表示歡迎，並且我們期待未來能有更多舉措。

I think one other comment I would make would be around the consumer space, particularly P&C personal lines. As you all know, we have a meaningful participation in the private client space, which is a very different business from what I would define as mass market. It is a part of the market that is built or driven by knowledge and expertise.

我想我要發表的另一條評論是關於消費者領域，特別是財產和意外傷害險個人險。眾所周知，我們在私人客戶領域有著重要的參與，這與我定義的大眾市場截然不同。它是由知識和專業技能建立或驅動的市場的一部分。

And we have a business that is really coming into its own in that space and has been a great contributor, not just to the top line but to the bottom line as well. And those market conditions remain ripe and we are pleased to have that opportunity.

我們在該領域擁有真正發揮自身優勢的業務，並且做出了巨大貢獻，不僅對營收做出了貢獻，而且對利潤也做出了巨大貢獻。這些市場條件仍然成熟，我們很高興能有這樣的機會。

I mentioned reinsurance earlier as far as the reinsurance marketplace, providing capacity within the property lines, perhaps the discipline, I think, eroding. I think we've talked about that in the past. It continues to erode. We'll have to see how quickly it remains, and how steep the trajectory is, I should say.

我之前提到過再保險，就再保險市場而言，它為財產險領域提供了承保能力，但我認為，這種紀律可能正在逐漸減弱。我想我們過去已經討論過這個問題了。它繼續受到侵蝕。我們必須看看它保持的速度有多快，以及軌跡有多陡峭，我應該說。

And finally, we've expressed our disappointment with the discipline, particularly on the casualty lines within the reinsurance space. I offered a couple of sound bites about MGAs just as a broad category earlier. And within the industry, people tend to oftentimes use some terminology, perhaps somewhat casually and almost interchangeably, around MGA, MGU, and ultimately really falls under the category if you like, of delegated authority.

最後，我們對該學科表示失望，特別是對再保險領域的傷亡險。我之前曾提供過一些關於 MGA 的簡短評論，將其作為一個廣泛的類別。在業界內，人們往往會經常使用一些術語，可能有些隨意，幾乎可以互換，圍繞 MGA、MGU，如果你願意的話，最終實際上屬於授權類別。

There is no doubt that inherently in many of the delegated authority models, there is a mismatch or a lack of alignment of interest between those with the pen and those with the capital. It is not that all of these relationships are bad, some of them are quite good, one just needs to have their eyes wide open and understand that it is not a perfect alignment of interest and make sure that it is controlled appropriately.

毫無疑問，在許多授權模式中，本質上存在著執筆者和資本家之間的利益不匹配或不一致的情況。並不是說所有這些關係都是壞的，有些關係還不錯，只是需要睜大眼睛，明白這並不是完美的利益一致，並確保對其進行適當的控制。

That having been said, there has been extraordinary growth in the MGA space. A lot of it has been generated by new entrants that lack expertise. A lot of it has been supported by reinsurance capacity that seems to have an unquenchable thirst for growth without necessarily their finger fully on the pulse.

話雖如此，MGA 領域已經取得了非凡的成長。其中許多都是由缺乏專業知識的新進入者所產生的。其中很大一部分是由再保險能力支撐的，這些再保險能力似乎對成長有著無法抑制的渴望，但不一定能完全掌握脈搏。

We'll have to see how this plays out. I think for many of us that have been around for at least a little while, and those that have been -- particularly those that have been around for a long while, have seen some version of this movie.

我們將拭目以待事情將如何發展。我想，對於我們當中的許多人來說，至少已經存在一段時間了，尤其是那些已經存在很長時間的人，都看過這部電影的某個版本。

In some ways, it's the same and other ways, it's different. Perhaps the only difference is that it's a different test of characters. One final anecdote on the MGA front, I would tell you that over the last 60 to 90 days, it's been a startling number of inbound calls that we have gotten from investment bankers suggesting that MGAs that they have to sell, would we be interested in buying them. And typically, they are capitalized or owned by private equity.

在某些方面，它們是相同的，而在其他方面，它們是不同的。或許唯一的差別在於，這是對性格的不同考驗。關於 MGA 方面的最後一個軼事，我想告訴你，在過去的 60 到 90 天裡，我們接到了大量來自投資銀行家的電話，他們建議我們是否有興趣購買他們必須出售的 MGA。通常，它們由私募股權資本化或擁有。

So oftentimes, perhaps a leading indicator that the music is slowing and we'll see who has a seat at the end, though oftentimes, that does take some time.

因此很多時候，也許一個領先的指標是音樂正在變慢，我們會看到誰在最後有座位，儘管很多時候，這確實需要一些時間。

Rich, as always, did a really thorough job as it relates to the quarter and the numbers. I would just call out the rate at the 7.6% ex comp continues to be meaningful and puts us in a comfortable place. Rich talked about the loss ratio. Again, I'm not going to go into a chapter and verse. The 3.2 points of cat was really frequency by industry standards, modest severity.

一如既往，Rich 在季度和數字方面做得非常徹底。我只想說，7.6% 的扣除額可比利率仍然具有意義，並且讓我們處於舒適的位置。里奇談到了損失率。再說一遍，我不會深入討論章節。以業界標準來看，3.2 分貓確實是發生頻率較高，嚴重程度適中。

And then lastly, you would have -- it's worth noting the duration of the investment portfolio edging out to 2.8 years. Again, I think this is exactly what we suggested we would be doing if the story unfolded the way it has. We continue to believe that our strategy is the right one, making sure that we are getting an appropriate risk-adjusted return.

最後，值得注意的是，投資組合的期限已延長至 2.8 年。再說一次，我認為如果故事按照現在的方式展開，這正是我們建議我們要做的。我們仍然相信我們的策略是正確的，確保我們獲得適當的風險調整回報。

I think as Rich alluded to, the cash flow of the organization remains very healthy. The growth in the investment portfolio remains quite significant. And if you think about a new money rate for us today is running about, give or take, 5.25 and the book yield on the portfolio ex Argentina is 4.7, that certainly bodes well for where investment income is going for the foreseeable.

我認為正如里奇提到的那樣，該組織的現金流仍然非常健康。投資組合的成長仍然相當顯著。如果您想一想，我們今天的新貨幣利率約為 5.25，而阿根廷以外投資組合的帳面收益率為 4.7，那麼這無疑預示著可預見的投資收益將走向好的方向。

So long story short, we can't control the environment, but we can control our actions. We remain very focused on making good risk-adjusted returns, the decoupling of product lines and how they make their way through the cycle, combined with the breadth of our offering allows us to continue to grow when others perhaps are experiencing more of a headwind.

長話短說，我們無法控制環境，但我們可以控制自己的行為。我們仍然非常注重獲得良好的風險調整回報，產品線的脫鉤以及它們如何經歷週期，再加上我們提供的產品的廣度，使我們能夠在其他人可能遇到更多逆風時繼續增長。

In our opinion, you certainly are seeing different product lines at different points of transition. We have historically and continue to be more of a liability market, and we think that much of the liability market is where the opportunity will likely be over the next 12 to 36 months.

我們認為，您肯定會在不同的過渡點看到不同的產品線。從歷史上看，我們一直更傾向於負債市場，我們認為，未來 12 至 36 個月，負債市場的大部分領域都可能存在機會。

So again, we think we're well-positioned on the underwriting side. We think we're well-positioned on the investment side, and it is our expectation that we will be able to continue to grow earnings in a very thoughtful and controlled manner. So with that, Abby, I will take a pause, and we're very pleased to open it up for questions. Thank you.

因此，我們再次認為我們在承保方面處於有利地位。我們認為我們在投資方面處於有利地位，並且我們期望能夠以非常周到和可控的方式繼續增加收益。因此，艾比，我將暫停一下，我們很高興開始回答問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯。

Just first question on growth, just thinking about the growth potential here. I know it was a tougher quarter with the property pricing deceleration, but just curious if you all still view this as sort of a 10% to 15% growth environment? Or has the last few quarters changed that?

第一個問題是關於成長，只是考慮這裡的成長潛力。我知道由於房地產價格減速，這是一個較為艱難的季度，但我只是好奇你們是否仍然認為這是一個 10% 到 15% 的成長環境？或者過去幾季已經改變了這種情況？

Look, I think we had come out with that band if you will, probably, I don't know, call it, 18 months ago, maybe 24 months ago, if you're asking my best guesstimate at this stage in spite of the number that we saw in this quarter, my view is that it's probably somewhere between 8% and 12% would be my guess as opposed to 10% to 15%.

你看，我想我們已經提出了這個範圍，如果你願意的話，可能，我不知道，稱之為，18 個月前，也許是 24 個月前，如果你問我現階段的最佳估計，儘管我們在本季度看到的數字，我的觀點是，它可能在 8% 到 12% 之間，而不是 10% 到 15% 之間。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then just curious on the underlying loss ratio. I think last quarter, you all mentioned that the impact of the outward reinsurance program was a business mix related headwind. This quarter, the underlying loss ratio, at least in insurance seems pretty flat. Anything else unusual to call out there? Or is that just normal dynamics?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後我只是對潛在的損失率感到好奇。我認為上個季度大家都提到，對外再保險計畫的影響是與業務組合相關的逆風。本季度，至少在保險領域，基礎損失率似乎相當穩定。還有什麼不尋常的事情需要指出嗎？或者這只是正常的動態？

I think it continues to primarily be mixed as far as the loss ratio.

我認為就損失率而言，情況仍然主要好壞參半。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

You mentioned tariffs and labor costs in your opening remarks. And I just wanted to understand if you're actually seeing anything coming through if that's more of like a forward-looking statement. And obviously, it's the wider range out?

您在開場白中提到了關稅和勞動成本。我只是想了解您是否真的看到了任何進展，這是否更像是一個前瞻性的聲明。顯然，範圍更廣？

It is a forward-looking statement. We are not seeing it in any noteworthy way in our loss activity right now. At the same time, we are conscious of the fact that, that concept of timing that I referenced in conjunction with the point that you're flagging.

這是一個前瞻性的聲明。目前，在我們的損失活動中，我們還沒有看到任何值得注意的情況。同時，我們意識到，我所提到的時間概念與您所指出的觀點有關。

And we want to make sure that we're not caught flat-footed. I think at this stage, given the -- what we're seeing coming out of the administration, it's hard to imagine that tariffs are going to prove this to be something that goes away, but we'll see.

我們希望確保我們不會措手不及。我認為，在現階段，鑑於我們看到的政府推出的措施，很難想像關稅會成為一種可以消失的政策，但我們拭目以待。

And as far as the labor piece goes from our perspective, ultimately when the day is all done, just given the position around immigration and related activities and the actions that the administration are putting into place, there is no doubt that there are certain jobs that are going to need to be filled at a different payroll point than they have been. And ultimately, that presumably will drive labor costs.

至於勞工問題，從我們的角度來看，最終當一天的工作結束時，考慮到移民和相關活動的立場以及政府正在採取的行動，毫無疑問，某些職位需要在與以前不同的工資點上填補。最終，這可能會推高勞動成本。

That makes sense. Second one I have is on the trajectory of margins from here. I mean pricing still remaining pretty firm. It seems like you guys have been disciplined and still getting pretty good rate in there. But just wanted to understand, is it still about loss cost trend, can margins still improve from here or remain flat? And would you expect sort of mix shift with casualty being the bigger opportunity maybe to affect it one way or the other?

這很有道理。我的第二個想法是從這裡開始的利潤軌跡。我的意思是價格仍然保持相當堅挺。看起來你們一直很守紀律，仍然獲得了相當不錯的成績。但只是想了解一下，這是否仍是損失成本趨勢，利潤率還能從現在開始提高還是保持穩定？您是否認為傷亡是更大的機會，可能會以某種方式對其產生影響？

I think when the day is all done, we feel comfortable that the rate that we are achieving is positioning us well, not just for today but for tomorrow as well. So can things improve here? Yeah, I think things can improve from here. But at the same time, we are all regularly reminded that there is no reward for declaring victory prematurely. And in addition to that, we are also regularly reminded of all of the significantly leveraged variables that one should not reach a conclusion about prematurely.

我認為，當一天的工作結束時，我們會感到很舒服，因為我們所達到的速度不僅為我們今天做好了準備，而且也為明天做好了準備。那麼情況可以改善嗎？是的，我認為事情會從現在開始改善。但同時，我們都經常被提醒，過早宣布勝利不會有任何回報。除此之外，我們也經常被提醒，所有具有顯著槓桿作用的變數都不應過早得出結論。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

My first question is actually on capital. You guys didn't buy back any shares in the quarter. Just wondering what drove that decision?

我的第一個問題其實是關於資本的。你們本季沒有回購任何股票。只是想知道是什麼促使了這個決定？

Look, ultimately, Elyse, when the day is all done, as we've shared with you and others in the past, we have a view as to how much capital we have and what type of surplus we have at any moment in time. We have a view as to what we see is opportunities potentially before us and want to make sure that we have a surplus of gas in the tank. And in addition to that, ultimately, there's a judgment made around to the extent there's above and beyond what is the most efficient way to return that to shareholders?

你看，伊莉絲，最終，當一天的工作結束時，正如我們過去與你和其他人分享的那樣，我們會了解我們有多少資本，以及在任何時候我們有多少類型的盈餘。我們對我們面前的潛在機會有一個看法，並希望確保我們擁有充足的儲備。除此之外，最終還要做出判斷，也就是以何種最有效的方式將利潤回饋給股東？

As Rich flagged in his notes, it's not that we weren't returning capital to shareholders, we returned a few hundred million dollars to shareholders. It just seemed at that moment in time, the most efficient and effective way to return the money to the people that belong was through a special dividend. I would strongly encourage you and others not to lead to the assumption that we are out of the repurchase market because that is not the case. We evaluate that tool, along with other tools every day.

正如里奇在他的筆記中指出的那樣，我們並不是沒有向股東返還資本，我們向股東返還了數億美元。在那個時候，似乎將錢返還給人民的最有效方式是透過特別股息。我強烈建議您和其他人不要認為我們已經退出回購市場，因為事實並非如此。我們每天都會評估該工具以及其他工具。

And again, what we think is the most practical answer to the surplus of capital question. Obviously, we can do our own math as others can do their math as to what we believe real book value is as opposed to this cockamamie accountant version of math. And we also have a view on the earnings power of the business going forward, which I would add, we are quite optimistic about. So again, I would encourage you not to count us out of the repurchase activity

再一次，我們認為這是資本過剩問題最實際的答案。顯然，我們可以像其他人一樣計算出我們認為的真實帳面價值，而不是這種荒謬的會計師版本的數學。我們也對該業務未來的獲利能力有所展望，我想補充的是，我們對此非常樂觀。因此，我再次鼓勵大家不要把我們排除在回購活動之外

And then my second question, you guys gave the underlying loss ratios right by segment. So back into around, I guess, $6 million adverse insurance and I think just around $8 million favorable in reinsurance. Within that $6 million in insurance, is there anything -- obviously, a large amount of reserves, but anything to call out that particularly moved relative to your reserves in the quarter?

然後是我的第二個問題，你們給了按細分市場劃分的潛在損失率。因此，我估計，不利的保險金額約為 600 萬美元，而有利的再保險金額約為 800 萬美元。在這 600 萬美元的保險中，是否有什麼東西——顯然是大量的儲備金，但有什麼特別值得一提的，相對於本季度的儲備金而言？

Nothing particularly noteworthy. Just as we've shared with you and others in the past, we look at it every 90 days. We're looking at it every day, but every 90 days, we're looking at it at a pretty granular level and a couple of bits and pieces moving around. That's all.

沒什麼特別值得注意的。正如我們過去與您和其他人分享的那樣，我們每 90 天查看一次。我們每天都會查看它，但每隔 90 天，我們就會以非常細緻的程度查看它，並查看一些零碎的內容。就這樣。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Mike Zaremski。

Rob, on the 15% Mitsui stake, any update on the time frame and timeline there?

羅布，關於三井 15% 的股份，有什麼時間框架和時間表的最新消息嗎？

I know no more than anybody else or at least anybody else who bothered to read the SEC filings. Again, I think as I don't know if we share it or not, if we didn't, I said that we, by design, have not been privy to sort of where they stand in their process because in no way, shape or form, perhaps back to one of Elyse's points, we don't want to be encumbered or restricted in any way and our ability to repurchase stock. So the short answer is I have no idea.

我所知道的並不比任何人多，或至少比任何費心閱讀美國證券交易委員會文件的人多。再說一次，我想，因為我不知道我們是否分享它，如果我們不分享，我說，我們按照設計，不了解他們在流程中的立場，因為無論如何，也許回到 Elyse 的觀點之一，我們不想以任何方式受到阻礙或限制，也不想以任何方式阻礙或限制我們回購股票的能力。所以簡短的回答是我不知道。

Understood. But we should see disclosure once it gets -- it's over.

明白了。但一旦一切結束，我們就應該看到披露。

I have a high degree of confidence that they will fully comply with any regulation from the SEC from a filing perspective. My understanding is that I think to comply with the SEC, they're going to need to do a filing once they reach 4.99% or call it 5%. And as far as I'm aware, they have not done that yet.

我非常有信心，從備案角度來看，他們將完全遵守美國證券交易委員會的任何規定。我的理解是，我認為為了遵守美國證券交易委員會的規定，一旦達到 4.99% 或 5%，他們就需要進行備案。據我所知，他們還沒有這樣做。

Got it. Understood. Maybe pivoting, Rob, to the medical inflation environment as it pertains to your work comp and I believe, also stop loss portfolio. We are obviously seeing all the headlines that you've been seeing. Any updates that -- I know you mentioned California as well, obviously, earlier.

知道了。明白了。羅布，也許應該轉向醫療通膨環境，因為它與你的工傷補償有關，我相信，也包括停損投資組合。我們顯然看到了您所看到的所有標題。有任何更新嗎——我知道您之前也提到過加利福尼亞州。

But any kind of updates on the macro level to Berkley's views on medical inflation potentially making their way into the comp and/or A&H arena?

但是，伯克利對醫療通膨的看法在宏觀層面上有任何更新嗎？這種看法是否可能進入公司和/或 A&H 領域？

Well, I think it has been and continues to be something that our colleagues and by extension, Rich, the Chairman and I are focused on. And as we've discussed, it's a very leveraged assumption. Maybe the only other wildcard that I would layer on top, Mike, is the commentary that has come out of the administration regarding its desire to onshore pharmaceutical in particular, manufacturing.

嗯，我認為這一直是我們同事以及董事長里奇和我所關注的事情。正如我們所討論的，這是一個非常有槓桿作用的假設。麥克，也許我要強調的唯一其他不確定因素是政府關於希望在國內發展製藥業特別是製造業的評論。

And I think it was just a couple of weeks ago that there was a comment that came from the President that suggested he was entertaining the possibility of a 200% tariff on all pharmaceuticals that are imported.

我認為就在幾週前，總統曾表示他正在考慮對所有進口藥品徵收 200% 的關稅。

That having been said, I just read earlier today that the discussions with the EU would suggest there would be no tariffs on pharmaceuticals or medical devices. So I think for all of us, the message perhaps is just stay tuned. But without a doubt, if we saw a levy to the tune of 200% on pharmaceuticals that's something that would have an impact and perhaps to jump ahead and anticipate your question.

話雖如此，我今天早些時候剛剛讀到，與歐盟的討論表明不會對藥品或醫療器械徵收關稅。所以我認為對我們所有人來說，資訊可能只是保持關注。但毫無疑問，如果我們看到對藥品徵收 200% 的稅，那將會產生影響，也許可以預見您的問題。

Yes, we have done quite a bit of sensitivity analysis as to what that would mean for us. And at the moment, we feel comfortable that we can manage through that.

是的，我們已經做了相當多的敏感度分析，以了解這對我們意味著什麼。目前，我們感到很安心，相信我們能夠解決這個問題。

Okay. That's helpful. And lastly, Rich, I believe I heard you talk about the new operating earnings, non-GAAP definition. Any -- just we'll go back and check, but does that change historical by like very low single digits? And any reason we should be aware of and why the change?

好的。這很有幫助。最後，Rich，我相信我聽到您談論了新的營業利潤、非 GAAP 定義。任何——只是我們會回去檢查，但這是否會改變歷史，就像非常低的個位數一樣？我們應該注意什麼原因以及為什麼要進行更改？

I think it's really a couple of things. One, what we've noticed and we've had some conversations with some of the equity analysts over the last few quarters in terms of some of the volatility that's been coming about as a result of some of the changes that Rob has alluded to since the new administration.

我認為這確實有幾件事。首先，我們注意到，過去幾個季度，我們與一些股票分析師就新政府上台以來羅布提到的一些變化所導致的一些波動性進行了交談。

And with the equity analysts not really including it because it's not modeled in, you felt it was a more straightforward approach with regards to having foreign currency gains and losses excluded. And you would see if you were to go back over time, there has been some volatility from period to period, but in particular, over the last couple of quarters, we've seen quite a bit.

由於股票分析師實際上並未將其包括在內，因為它沒有被納入模型，因此您會覺得在排除外幣收益和損失方面，這是一種更直接的方法。如果你回顧過去，你會發現，各個時期都存在一些波動，但特別是在過去的幾個季度，我們看到了相當多的波動。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)，TD Cowen。

Rob, you mentioned in the write-up rate increases were 7.6% ex workers' comp. And I know that you're kind of writing a more specialized, higher risk line. So I was just kind of curious, how is the workers' comp pricing doing in that arena? And any other color on the workers' comp in addition to your prepared remarks you might call out?

羅布，你提到，記帳率增加了 7.6%，其中包括工人補償。我知道您正在寫一種更專業、風險更高的產品線。所以我只是有點好奇，工人補償定價在那個領域表現如何？除了您準備好的評論之外，您還可能要求工人補償金有其他顏色嗎？

Well, thanks for the question, Andrew. The answer is that I think what you perhaps are referring to is some of the higher hazard stuff where we see growth opportunities from time to time, we saw, particularly in the first quarter. It was still there in the second quarter, but perhaps not to the same degree. That having been said, we do like the pricing there, and that's why we're leaning into it. And while we maintain a little bit more of a defensive posture with the Main Street stuff.

好吧，謝謝你的提問，安德魯。答案是，我認為您可能指的是一些高風險的東西，我們不時會看到成長機會，特別是在第一季。第二季度這種情況仍然存在，但程度可能沒有那麼嚴重。話雖如此，我們確實喜歡那裡的定價，這就是我們傾向於它的原因。同時，我們對主要街道上的事情保持著更多的防禦姿態。

What I would define as the higher hazard, more specialty in nature. We're very pleased with the opportunities that we see there.

我將其定義為危險性更高、性質更特殊的東西。我們對在那裡看到的機會感到非常高興。

Got it. And Rob, you mentioned in your remarks some disappointment with commercial auto. As I look at the numbers in your release, net written premium looked up. It looked like it was up roughly 10%. So is that all just raised? And are you feeling confident in the book that you have?

知道了。羅布，您在評論中提到了對商用汽車的一些失望。當我查看您發布的數字時，發現淨承保保費有所上升。看起來上漲了約 10%。那麼這一切都只是提高了嗎？您對於您擁有的這本書有信心嗎？

Yes, we're confident in the book. And is it raised? The answer is yes, and then some.

是的，我們對這本書很有信心。它被提高了嗎？答案是肯定的，而且不只這些。

I see. Okay, thanks a lot.

我懂了。好的，非常感謝。

Mark Hughes, Truist.

馬克·休斯，Truist。

On the other liability line, the growth was just a little bit slower this quarter, you expressed some of kind of continuing optimism about primary and excess. At the same time, you kind of bound back your growth outlook just a little bit. Are you seeing any kind of inflection in that core GL or excess market? Or is that still consistent with prior couple of quarters?

在另一條負債線上，本季的成長略有放緩，您對主要和超額部分錶達了某種持續的樂觀態度。同時，你的成長前景也稍微受到限制。您是否看到核心 GL 或超額市場出現任何形式的轉折點？或者這仍然與前幾季一致？

Yeah, we're still encouraged by the opportunity that we see there. So my recalibrating, if you will, as far as the growth opportunity is really a couple of fold. One, on the commercial property opportunity, I think that there's going to be a bit more of a headwind.

是的，我們仍然對在那裡看到的機會感到鼓舞。因此，如果你願意的話，我可以重新調整，因為成長機會實際上是多了幾倍。首先，就商業房地產機會而言，我認為將會面臨更多的阻力。

I think the casualty piece that you just referred to, I think that opportunity very much remains there. I also think just going back to the commercial auto piece, I think that, that will prove to be a terrific opportunity, but it's going to take a little bit longer to get there.

我認為您剛才提到的傷亡問題，我認為機會仍然存在。我還認為，回到商用汽車部分，我認為這將被證明是一個絕佳的機會，但要實現這一目標還需要更長的時間。

On the other hand, I think that on the reinsurance front property, in particular, has probably seen its best day for some time. And for the life of me, I don't understand why the casualty marketplace isn't getting a little more backbone.

另一方面，我認為，再保險方面，尤其是房地產，可能已經經歷了一段時間以來的最佳時期。就我而言，我不明白為什麼傷亡市場沒有得到更多的支持。

Yeah. On the MGAs that are knocking on your door, is that always a hard no? Or is that something you might consider if the valuation was right? Or are they just -- their expectations are above and beyond what you'd ever consider paying?

是的。對於那些敲你門的 MGAs，你總是堅決拒絕嗎？或者如果估值正確的話，您可能會考慮這一點嗎？或者他們只是——他們的期望超出了你考慮支付的範圍？

Ultimately when the day is all done, we evaluate every opportunity as you'd expect on its own merit. That having been said, we take the expertise and the responsibility to capital vary both of those things very seriously. So while we're always open to conversations, it's a pretty high hurdle to truly get us to want to engage.

最終，當一天的工作結束時，我們會根據您期望的每一個機會本身的價值進行評估。話雖如此，我們非常重視專業知識和對資本變化的責任。因此，儘管我們始終願意進行對話，但要讓我們真正想要參與卻面臨相當大的障礙。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Rob, just follow-up question maybe there to Mark's question. You had mentioned the bifurcated property market between large and small or large and middle, maybe we'll call it SMID, do you see that dynamic going in the opposite direction in some of the other markets, like casualty or maybe large accounts are seeing some rate increase acceleration and that's yet to really seep down and play out in the small to middle market or just hoping to get some color there in terms of how you're thinking about the opportunity.

羅布，也許這只是馬克問題的後續問題。您曾提到大、小或大、中型之間的分叉房地產市場，也許我們稱之為 SMID，您是否看到這種動態在其他一些市場中朝著相反的方向發展，例如意外事故或大帳戶可能正在經歷一些利率加速上漲，而這還沒有真正滲透到中小型市場並發揮作用，或者只是希望在您如何看待機會方面獲得一些信息。

Look, I think taking half a step back, focusing on the casualty stuff, both primary and excess, I think the reality is that social inflation impacts the full spectrum. That having been said, without a doubt, plaintiff attorneys, tend to view limits as candy. And so the bigger the limits that are available, the more focus they get. That has been the case for some number of years at this stage.

瞧，我認為退一步來看，關注傷亡因素，包括主要因素和超額因素，我認為現實情況是社會通膨影響整個範圍。話雖如此，毫無疑問，原告律師傾向於將限制視為糖果。因此，可用的限制越大，他們得到的關注就越多。現階段這種情況已經持續好幾年了。

Do I think that we have seen an effort amongst the plaintiff attorney to go a little bit down market, yeah, I do, but not dramatically. So when the day is all done, I think my expectation is that you're going to continue to see opportunities of the larger end of town, and that will continue to really waterfall through the whole casualty marketplace.

我是否認為，我們看到原告律師正在努力降低市場價格，是的，我認為是這樣，但幅度並不大。因此，當這一天結束時，我認為我的期望是，你將繼續看到城鎮較大範圍內的機會，並且這種機會將繼續真正滲透到整個傷亡市場。

The good news is for the smaller accounts, they tend to be a little bit more insulated and the rate environment tends to be a little bit more sticky. So similar to perhaps one of the points you were making, the property market, the larger accounts are the ones that get targeted and you get the greatest feeding frenzy around early on. Well, that applies to casualty, too. So the rates are going up on the larger accounts and casualty. But the smaller and middle market is following and it tends to be stickier.

好消息是，對於較小的帳戶來說，它們往往具有更強的隔離性，利率環境也往往更具黏性。因此，與您提出的觀點之一類似，在房地產市場中，較大的帳戶是目標，您在早期就會獲得最大的狂熱。嗯，這也適用於傷亡。因此，大額帳戶和意外險的費率正在上升。但小型和中型市場正在緊隨其後，並且趨於更具黏性。

Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up here just on the tariffs. At least on the insurance side, didn't really look like there was anything going on in terms of the loss pick reinsurance, the underlying loss ratio did tick up. It doesn't look like you guys have embedded that into your view of loss trend, maybe just how are you thinking about that? And is that something you guys are considering doing?

知道了。然後也許只是對關稅進行後續跟進。至少在保險方面，損失選擇再保險方面似乎沒有發生任何事情，基礎損失率確實上升了。看起來你們並沒有將其嵌入到你們的損失趨勢觀點中，也許你們只是如何看待這一點的？你們正在考慮這麼做嗎？

It's certainly something that we're grappling with. We are paying close attention to it. We are already factoring it into how we think about required rate or rate need, and we're going to see how it unfolds from here. Obviously, the impact of tariffs while it may have applied to a broader cross-section of product, it is heavily weighted towards the shorter tail lines, so APD or property. At least that's how it would appear today barring pharma, et cetera, that we referred to earlier.

這確實是我們正在努力解決的問題。我們正在密切關注此事。我們已經將其納入到我們如何考慮所需利率或利率需求的因素中，我們將觀察它如何從這裡展開。顯然，關稅的影響雖然可能適用於更廣泛的產品領域，但其主要集中在較短的尾線，即 APD 或財產。至少今天的情況是這樣的，除了我們之前提到的製藥業等等。

So that's where we're focused, and we'll see how it unfolds. But yes, it is top of mind and action is being taken from a pricing perspective.

這就是我們關注的重點，我們將拭​​目以待事情如何發展。但確實，這是首要考慮的問題，從定價角度來看，我們正在採取行動。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

On the investment portfolio, I think, Rob, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned some moving pieces in terms of what you may do going forward. And so I heard you had extended duration a little bit, but is there anything else that you might be thinking about in terms of potential repositioning or other actions on the portfolio?

關於投資組合，羅布，我認為，在您準備好的發言中，您提到了未來可能採取的一些行動。因此，我聽說您的期限有所延長，但是您是否還在考慮潛在的重新定位或投資組合的其他行動？

I think we generally are of the view that the fixed income portfolio is particularly well-positioned. I think that our expectation is certainly, given what you hear coming out of Washington, the yield curve may steepen a little bit from here, and that may be a catalyst or an opportunity where we'll choose to take the duration out a little bit further.

我認為我們普遍認為固定收益投資組合處於特別有利的位置。我認為，根據華盛頓的消息，我們的預期肯定是，殖利率曲線可能會從現在開始稍微變陡，這可能是催化劑或機會，我們會選擇將期限稍微延長一些。

Perhaps answering the question with a slightly different bent consistent with messaging in the past, while we have not completely turned our back to the alternative space going forward from a new money perspective, given the opportunities in the fixed income market, it's a pretty high hurdle. So we're pretty pleased with how things are positioned today, and we think we have a lot of flexibility regardless of what tomorrow will bring.

也許用與過去資訊略有不同的角度來回答這個問題，雖然從新資金的角度來看我們還沒有完全放棄未來的替代空間，但考慮到固定收益市場的機遇，這是一個相當高的障礙。因此，我們對目前的狀況非常滿意，我們認為無論明天會發生什麼，我們都有很大的靈活性。

Got it. Understood. And maybe my follow-up, just to come back to property and Rob, you talked about larger share and layered property being more competitive, but when you kind of look at the market today, obviously, there's a little bit more rate pressure there in property, but any color you can share on your view of rate adequacy of the market at this point?

知道了。明白了。也許我的後續問題只是回到房地產和羅布，你談到了更大的份額和分層的房地產更具競爭力，但是當你看看今天的市場時，顯然，房地產的利率壓力要大一些，但是你能否就目前市場利率充足性分享一下你的看法？

I think, generally speaking, it really took off to the moon. And I think it's still in a good place, and we're happy to write it, but we are being forced to be very, very selective and careful. And I think it's not just about where it is today, it's also where you see it going tomorrow.

我認為，總體來說，它確實飛向了月球。我認為它仍然處於一個很好的位置，我們很高興寫它，但我們被迫非常非常有選擇性和謹慎。我認為這不僅關乎它今天的狀況，也關乎它未來的發展方向。

And our colleagues are yes writing business today, but they're also trying to position the portfolio in anticipation of what tomorrow's conditions will be. So yes, I think the larger accounts, the shared and layered accounts, you're seeing more competition there.

我們的同事今天確實在開展業務，但他們也在嘗試根據明天的情況來調整投資組合。所以是的，我認為在更大的帳戶、共享和分層帳戶中，你會看到更多的競爭。

You're seeing a bit more of a feeding frenzy. By and large, we're still happy with the pricing, but that will not be indefinite. And we have no problem when we don't think that the rate is adequate to walk away. And we will be there when the opportunity presents itself again as we have been in the past.

你會看到更多的瘋狂進食。總的來說，我們對定價還是很滿意的，但這不會是無限期的。當我們認為利率不足以讓我們放棄時，我們也沒有問題。當機會再次出現時，我們將會像過去一樣出現。

I should add those comments around market conditions, again, are very much focused on the commercial lines marketplace and the private client stuff. We continue to be pleased with, by and large, the opportunities before us.

我應該補充一下有關市場狀況的評論，這些評論主要集中在商業線市場和私人客戶方面。整體而言，我們仍然對眼前的機會感到高興。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor Fitzgerald.

瑞安圖尼斯、康托費茲傑拉。

I guess just keeping it on the property discussion, Rob, is kind of a broad question, but why are we still seeing better growth in the property lines and the other liability given your assessment of things?

羅布，我想，只討論房地產是一個很寬泛的問題，但根據您的評估，為什麼我們仍然看到房地產和其他負債方面有更好的增長？

I think a lot of the property growth is really coming from -- well, as I said a moment ago, we still think that there's opportunity there. So just because rates are down doesn't mean you don't want to write the business. I think the other piece that is worth noting is our private client business that I referred to before or said differently, our net worth personal lines business, and that is a contributor there as well.

我認為房地產成長的很大一部分實際上來自於——正如我剛才所說，我們仍然認為那裡有機會。因此，利率下降並不意味著你不想開展業務。我認為另一個值得注意的部分是我之前提到或換句話說的私人客戶業務，即我們的淨值個人線路業務，這也是一個貢獻者。

Got it. And then just, I guess, a little -- maybe more detailed one, maybe for Rich, but the corporate costs or the -- I don't know what you guys call them other costs and expenses, that ticked up this quarter. Are we in a new type of run rate there? Or were there some new launches? Or just curious what's going on with that?

知道了。然後，我想，也許對 Rich 來說，稍微詳細一點，但公司成本或 - 我不知道你們如何稱呼它們為其他成本和費用，本季度有所增加。我們是否處於一種新型的運行率？或是有一些新產品推出？還是只是好奇發生了什麼事？

Yeah. It's up really, Ryan, for a couple of reasons. One is with regards to the special dividend that we paid in the second quarter. As it relates to the dividend, it comes through on vested mandatorily deferred RSUs. So effectively, it characterizes compensation.

是的。瑞安，這確實有幾個原因。一是關於我們第二季支付的特別股息。就股息而言，它是透過既得的強制遞延 RSU 來實現的。因此，它實際上代表了補償。

And so that is a meaningful contributor in the current quarter. So that would obviously move around depending on future timing of special dividends or not.

因此，這對本季來說是一個有意義的貢獻。因此，這顯然會根據未來是否發放特別股息而改變。

And then the second is you might have seen that we had announced a few quarters ago, two new operations, our embedded solutions and our India branch, similar to what we've done in the past, those expenses when they're in the incubation stage are reflected in our corporate expenses. And then when they get to some relative size in terms of generation of premium, we'll move that out of corporate expense on a prospective basis, and that would be reflected in our underwriting results.

第二，您可能已經看到，我們在幾個季度前宣布了兩項新業務，即我們的嵌入式解決方案和印度分公司，與我們過去所做的類似，這些處於孵化階段的費用反映在我們的公司費用中。然後，當他們在保費產生方面達到一定相對規模時，我們會將其從公司費用中轉移出來，這將反映在我們的承保結果中。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克（Josh Shanker），美國銀行。

So Rob, in your prepared remarks, it was almost like a throwaway. The last thing you mentioned was being really just pleased with the direction of trend in casualty reinsurance markets. And from my perspective, a lot of casualty reinsurance is just quota share that the underlying risk sets the pricing and then you have some question about what's going to be the ceding commission.

所以羅布，在你準備好的發言中，這幾乎就像是無謂的發言。您最後提到的是，對意外傷害再保險市場的趨勢方向感到非常滿意。從我的角度來看，許多意外險再保險只是按份額分擔，即由潛在風險決定價格，然後你會對分保佣金是多少產生疑問。

But obviously, there's so well in some facultative and other types of business that obviously have a set price. Can you go a little into what you meant about being disappointed in the trends on the casualty reinsurance direction?

但顯然，一些兼性業務和其他類型的業務顯然有一個固定的價格。您能否稍微解釋一下您對意外傷害再保險方向的趨勢感到失望是什麼意思？

Yeah, absolutely, Josh. Thanks for flagging that. So long story short, and I should have been more specific about it, the thorn in the side is primarily the ceding commissions where we just think that the reinsurance marketplace when we're planning the assumed game, should be looking for better terms. Obviously, we have a different view when we're ceding the business, but that is what I was referring to.

是的，絕對是，喬希。感謝您檢舉。長話短說，我應該更具體地說明這一點，最棘手的問題主要是轉讓佣金，我們認為，再保險市場在規劃假設的遊戲時應該尋求更好的條款。顯然，當我們轉讓業務時，我們有不同的看法，但這就是我所指的。

In addition to that, just less consequential as far as percent of the marketplace or for that matter, percent of our portfolio, we found that the [cat's fact] market is one where we would have hoped to have seen a bit more discipline at this stage. By the way, mapping back to some of the other comments, particularly around the commercial auto space.

除此之外，就市場百分比或我們投資組合的百分比而言，影響較小，我們發現 [cat's fact] 市場是我們希望在現階段看到更多紀律的市場。順便說一句，回顧一下其他一些評論，特別是有關商業汽車領域的評論。

And on the ceding commissions that you're talking about to the ceding commissions are too low in your primary book when you're trying to cede or they're too high in the reinsurance, I’m saying.

關於您所說的轉讓佣金，我的意思是，當您嘗試轉讓時，您的主要帳簿中的轉讓佣金太低，或者在再保險中轉讓佣金太高。

The ceding commissions are too low when we're assuming the business, and I'm saying from a self-serving perspective, we'd like them to be lower when we're ceding the business or an insurer.

當我們承接這項業務時，轉讓佣金太低了，從自我服務的角度來看，我們希望當我們轉讓業務或保險公司時，轉讓佣金會更低。

Yeah. Okay. That makes sense.

是的。好的。這很有道理。

And then we would like our cake and to get it too, Josh.

然後我們想要我們的蛋糕，喬希也去得到它。

Yes, I get it. And then trying to -- if I go back three years ago when the 10-year was sub-2%. And now we're at like one where it's trying to get about 5%. And there may be some gripe about where prices are in various markets. But I assume in an efficient market, the price of yield on investments should have some impact on the underwriters' ability to make money on the underwriting.

是的，我明白了。然後嘗試——如果我回到三年前，當時 10 年期利率低於 2%。現在我們正試圖達到 5% 左右。人們可能會對各市場的價格狀況有所抱怨。但我認為，在有效的市場中，投資收益率的價格應該會對承銷商透過承銷賺錢的能力產生一定的影響。

When we say we don't like the direction of pricing, is pricing much worse because it's definitely for the market and certainly you as well, you're making a whole lot more money on the investment income. Is it reflective of just a different investment paradigm?

當我們說我們不喜歡定價方向時，定價會更糟嗎？因為它肯定是為了市場，當然也是為了你，你在投資收益上賺了更多的錢。它是否僅僅反映了不同的投資模式？

So Josh, I very much appreciate the point that have -- and clearly, there is an economic model here and there is a relationship between investment income and underwriting profit and how it all comes together to deliver an outcome.

所以喬希，我非常同意這個觀點——顯然，這裡有一個經濟模型，投資收益和承保利潤之間存在著一種關係，以及它們如何結合在一起產生結果。

That having been said, let's understand that perhaps the most competitive part of the market is in some of the shorter tail lines, i.e., property, where investment income is making the most modest contribution. So do I think that there is an impact? Yes. Do I think that, that is going to take us fast to the world of cash flow underwriting? No, sir, I do not.

話雖如此，讓我們明白，也許市場中最有競爭力的部分是一些較短的尾線，即房地產，其中投資收入的貢獻最為有限。那我認為有影響嗎？是的。我是否認為這會讓我們快速進入現金流承保的世界？不，先生，我不知道。

Brian Meredith with UBS.

瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

So Rob, I wondered if you could talk a little bit about what the competitive dynamics are like right now in the private client business. Are there more opportunities there because maybe some players are pulling back? Or are we seeing any more competition in that marketplace?

那麼羅布，我想知道您是否可以談談目前私人客戶業務的競爭動態。由於一些球員退出，那裡是否會有更多機會？或者我們看到該市場出現更多競爭？

I think that certainly, there are the obvious names participating in the space. I think each organization or a competitor as their own approach to the business. I think there are some that are primarily riding the coattails of a brand that they have.

我認為，肯定有一些知名人士參與到這個領域。我認為每個組織或競爭對手都有自己的經營方式。我認為有些人主要是藉助自己擁有的品牌。

And I think there are others like ourselves that are really through the expertise of people and our team bringing value that's very visible to both distribution and insured. So when the day is all done, why are we getting the traction we are because we certainly are not the cheapest, but I would argue we're the best value.

我認為有其他人也像我們一樣，透過人員和團隊的專業知識，為經銷商和被保險人帶來了顯而易見的價值。那麼，當一天的工作都結束時，為什麼我們會獲得這樣的關注呢？因為我們肯定不是最便宜的，但我認為我們是最有價值的。

Makes sense. Thanks. And then second question, just curious, the underlying combined ratio mentioned in the reinsurance, it looked like it's kind of elevated relative to where it's been the last couple of years. Is there anything unusual going on in the quarter catch up or something that happened?

有道理。謝謝。然後是第二個問題，只是好奇，再保險中提到的基礎綜合比率似乎相對於過去幾年有所上升。本季的追趕過程中有沒有什麼不尋常的事情發生或發生了什麼？

Not particular. I think it's really two things, just tying in to the comments earlier, partly, it ties in with my bitching about ceding commissions and also ties in with the comments around property rates and where they are.

沒有特別的。我認為這實際上是兩件事，只是與先前的評論相關，一部分與我對放棄佣金的抱怨相關，也與房地產利率及其現狀的評論相關。

And the fact is the reinsurance market is not charging as much for property or for that matter, property cat, in particular, today as it did yesterday. So on both of those fronts, when we think about the changes, our colleagues are reacting to that and what we believe is a very thoughtful manner.

事實是，再保險市場對財產險，特別是財產巨災險的收費，今天並不像昨天那麼高。因此，在這兩個方面，當我們考慮變化時，我們的同事都會對此做出反應，而且我們認為這是一種非常深思熟慮的方式。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶·希爾茲，KBW。

Two, I think, quick questions. First of all, on your clients, are you seeing increasing demand for higher limits on the various casualty line policies?

我認為有兩個簡單的問題。首先，對於您的客戶來說，您是否發現對各種意外險保單的更高限額的需求不斷增加？

Are we seeing increasing demand from our clients? I think that ultimate -- are we talking about larger or smaller accounts, just to make sure I'm following there? Sorry.

我們是否看到客戶的需求不斷增加？我認為最終——我們談論的是較大的帳戶還是較小的帳戶，只是為了確保我關注那裡？對不起。

I was thinking of the smaller ones.

我考慮的是那些較小的。

You were thinking of the smaller ones. Not consequentially. They are still looking to buy the typical primary and oftentimes if they're looking to buy the same umbrella. So said differently, I'm not sure that the insureds or for that matter, their distribution, is directing them to think about their exposure in a materially different manner than they did yesterday in spite of social inflation.

你想到的是較小的。不一定。他們仍然希望購買典型的主要產品，並且很多時候他們希望購買相同的雨傘。換句話說，我不確定被保險人，或者就此而言，他們的分佈，是否會引導他們以與昨天相比在社會通貨膨脹方面有實質性不同的方式來考慮他們的風險敞口。

It's just not something that the smaller accounts are thinking about as much as the larger accounts are. I think given the rate increases that have come about in response to social inflation amongst other things, I think you have a lot of insurers out there trying to think about not just what do they need, but also what can they afford?

小帳戶不像大帳戶那樣考慮那麼多。我認為，考慮到由於社會通膨等原因而導致的保費上漲，許多保險公司不僅在考慮他們需要什麼，還在考慮他們能負擔得起什麼？

And I know you're talking about this sort of main street casualty, but I would suggest to you that, that is perhaps particularly visible in the commercial auto space where a product line where you're seeing perhaps or arguably the greatest level of social inflation, consequently, significant rate need being pushed and more probably to come, and you have insurers sitting there saying, I don't know if I can afford this. I don't know how I make my economic model work.

我知道您說的是這種主要街道上的傷亡，但我想告訴您，這種情況在商用汽車領域尤其明顯，因為您可能看到或可以說是最高水平的社會通脹，因此，需要大幅提高利率，而且這種利率很可能還會上升，而保險公司卻坐在那裡說，我不知道我是否能負擔得起。我不知道如何讓我的經濟模式發揮作用。

And sometimes, you have insurers that are sitting there saying, I'll buy the primary, but the excess that I used to buy, maybe I'll buy less or maybe I'll have to fix self-insure, which sadly is a big rolling of the dice.

有時，保險公司會坐在那裡說，我會買主要保險，但是我過去購買的超額保險，也許我會買得少一些，或者也許我必須解決自我保險問題，不幸的是，這需要很大的冒險精神。

Okay. Yeah, that's very helpful. I just wanted to get a sense of that. Second question, you talked about the loss cost increase that was approved in California. When you look at California workers' compensation market, is that a good proxy or a leading indicator for this of the country?

好的。是的，這非常有幫助。我只是想了解這一點。第二個問題，您談到了加州批准的損失成本增加。當您觀察加州工人賠償市場時，它是否是一個很好的代表或全國的領先指標？

Historically, if you look back over cycles, California has been a laggard as opposed to a leader. As we've suggested, I think we're probably a while now. Our view was that California was out in front as far as a firming market. Do I think it is a perfect proxy for the rest of the country? No, sir, I don't.

從歷史上看，如果回顧歷史週期，加州一直是落後者，而不是領導者。正如我們所說的，我認為我們可能還需要一段時間。我們認為，就市場穩固性而言，加州處於領先地位。我是否認為它是該國其他地區的完美代表？不，先生，我不知道。

I think California is definitely a unique animal. That having been said, I would offer the observation that if you've got a product line's rate enough eventually, it ends badly.

我認為加州絕對是一種獨特的動物。話雖如此，我還是要說，如果某條產品線的利率最終過高，那麼最終的結局就會很糟糕。

In addition to that, as some colleagues were flagging earlier, and I think we all have an appreciation for, is that medical trend is not working in the workers' comp markets favor. And I think also, as we've discussed in our opinion, there's a pinch point or it's been artificially held back or suppressed because of how it prices off of Medicare, I believe it is, in many states.

除此之外，正如一些同事早些時候指出的那樣，我想我們都意識到，醫療趨勢對工人補償市場不利。而且我認為，正如我們在意見中討論的那樣，存在一個瓶頸，或者由於醫療保險的定價方式而被人為地抑製或壓制，我相信在許多州都是如此。

So what do I think? I think that the California response is warranted and then some. And I don't think it's a perfect indicator for the rest of the country, but it is an indicator that ultimately, if you take enough rate out of it, eventually, it ends badly and response is required.

那我怎麼想呢？我認為加州的回應是合理的，甚至更多。我不認為這對全國其他地區來說是一個完美的指標，但它表明，如果你從中抽取足夠的利率，最終結果會很糟糕，需要做出回應。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯安德森，傑富瑞集團。

Maybe just on the D&O market, can you remind us, do you guys focus more on the public or the private and I guess where I'm going with this is, does kind of a rebounding M&A and IPO market provide some upside for premium growth here?

也許只是在 D&O 市場上，你能否提醒我們，你們更關注公共市場還是私人市場，我想我要說的是，反彈的併購和 IPO 市場是否會為這裡的保費增長帶來一些好處？

So the answer is all of the above. And certainly, IPO activity would be well-received. And I guess all we need to do is get the SPAC market going again and then we can have a party.

所以答案是以上全部。當然，IPO 活動將會受到歡迎。我想我們需要做的就是讓 SPAC 市場再次活躍起來，然後我們就可以開派對了。

Fair enough. Okay. And then short tail lines within insurance, I heard your comments on the high net worth homeowners, but would be interested because there's a few other lines in there kind of what you're seeing within A&H or inland marine.

很公平。好的。然後是保險中的短尾險，我聽到了您對高淨值房主的評論，但我很感興趣，因為其中還有其他幾條線路，類似於您在 A&H 或內陸海運中看到的那樣。

From our perspective, A&H continues to be an attractive part of our business. We participate in that marketplace in a couple of different ways, and I don't want to bore everyone on the call with it. But if you have interest, we're happy to follow up offline. As far as the inland marine piece, by and large, that tends to run semi, I wouldn't say in perfect lockstep, but is on a similar course to the broader property market.

從我們的角度來看，A&H 仍然是我們業務中一個有吸引力的部分。我們透過幾種不同的方式參與市場，我不想讓電話會議中的每個人都感到無聊。但如果您有興趣，我們很樂意進行線下跟進。就內陸海運而言，總體而言，它傾向於半半半地運行，我不會說它完全同步，但它與更廣泛的房地產市場處於類似的發展軌跡。

Jamie Inglis, PhiloSmith.

傑米·英格利斯，菲洛史密斯。

I was curious about your thoughts about risk-adjusted return. You mentioned it a couple of times, you always do. But the question is, how often and when and how do you change your view about risk as -- by line. And therefore, how does that affect the return? You know what I mean is it a monthly, daily annual thing because the world is changing fairly rapidly today. And therefore, I would assume that the underlying risks are changing as well.

我很好奇您對風險調整報酬的看法。您提到過幾次，您總是這樣。但問題是，您多久、何時、如何改變您對風險的看法？那麼，這對回報有何影響？你知道我的意思嗎？這是每月、每天、每年的事情，因為當今世界變化相當快。因此，我認為潛在的風險也在改變。

The way I would articulate it, and then others on my end of the phone might have a view because this is -- well, Rich may have a thought, but my boss might have a thought as well because this is very much a philosophical thing that goes back to day one when we got two sticks together to make fire.

我會這樣表達，然後電話那頭的其他人可能會有自己的看法，因為這是——好吧，里奇可能有自己的想法，但我的老闆可能也有自己的想法，因為這是一個非常哲學的事情，可以追溯到第一天我們用兩根木棍一起生火的時候。

But long story short is that we are very preoccupied with this and colleagues throughout the organization are talking about it daily. We have a fair amount of visibility every 30 days, and we have a painfully granular discussion about it by business, by product line every 90 days. Now just because we have the formality of monthly and quarterly that in no way, shape or form inhibits the discussion. And if appropriate, the taking action between those mile markers. Did you want to add to that?

長話短說，我們非常關注這一點，整個組織的同事每天都在談論這一點。我們每 30 天都會有相當多的可見性，並且每 90 天我們會根據業務、產品線對其進行一次非常細緻的討論。現在，僅僅因為我們有月度和季度的形式，所以無論如何都不會妨礙討論。如果合適，在這些里程碑之間採取行動。您想補充一下嗎？

I would only have one case that goes in a way you never imagined, could make you change your mind about a line of business. It's a continuous process for watching how things are going and seeing, is there something you didn't expect? Is there something that causes you to re-evaluate?

我只會遇到一個以你從未想像過的方式發生的案例，可能會讓你改變對某個行業的看法。這是一個持續觀察事情進展的過程，有什麼是你意想不到的嗎？有什麼事情讓你重新評估嗎？

Otherwise, it's a continuous process of examining the risks you see in the courtroom in the underwriting, whatever, but there was a bad malpractice case in Philadelphia that was decided last week in obstetrician had a terribly bad decision.

否則，這是一個持續審查承保法庭上所見風險的過程，無論如何，但費城發生了一起嚴重的醫療事故，上週產科醫生做出了非常糟糕的決定。

Well, that makes you think about what happens about malpractice and obstetrics and all those things. Just it brings it to your attention. So I think it's a continuous process of staying on top of what's happening and how our decision is going. And you're looking at those things on a continuous basis.

好吧，這讓你思考醫療事故、產科以及所有這些事情會發生什麼。它只是引起你的注意。所以我認為這是一個持續的過程，不斷了解正在發生的事情以及我們的決策進展。而你會持續關注這些事情。

Rich, is there anything you want to add?

Rich，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I'm okay.

不，我沒事。

Abby, anybody else out there?

艾比，還有其他人在嗎？

No. That will conclude our question-and-answer session. So I would love to turn the conference back over to Mr. Rob Berkley for closing remarks.

不。我們的問答環節到此結束。因此，我很樂意將會議交還給 Rob Berkley 先生，請他致閉幕詞。

Abby, thanks for the help and hosting us. And again, thank you to all the participants. I think that it was a very solid quarter, and again, sort of the story continuing to unfold as promised. I think it's a reminder of the stability of the earnings of the business, whether it's a quarter like one or quarter like two, we're able to continually and consistently create value for shareholders.

艾比，謝謝你的幫助和接待。再次感謝所有參與者。我認為這是一個非常穩健的季度，而且故事正如承諾的那樣繼續展開。我認為這提醒我們企業獲利的穩定性，無論是第一季還是第二季度，我們都能夠持續不斷地為股東創造價值。

Beyond that, I think there's a fair amount of visibility at this stage, not just for the balance of this year, but beyond as to it is likely that this organization will continue for the foreseeable to be able to generate high teens, low-20s returns. And we are very optimistic and confident in our ability to achieve that. So again, our thanks to all for tuning in, and we will look forward to catching up with you in about 90 days. Thank you very much. Good night.

除此之外，我認為現階段有相當大的可見性，不僅是今年的餘額，而且以後，該組織很可能在可預見的時間內繼續產生高十幾歲、低二十多歲的回報。我們對於實現這一目標的能力非常樂觀和有信心。再次感謝大家的收看，我們期待在大約 90 天後與您見面。非常感謝。晚安。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。