W R Berkley Corp (WRB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to W R Berkley Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's conference call is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 W R Berkley Corporation 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音。

The speakers' remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including without limitation, believes, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved.

演講者的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。一些前瞻性陳述可以透過使用前瞻性字詞來識別，包括但不限於相信、預期或估計。我們提醒您，此類前瞻性聲明不應被視為我們代表我們預期的未來計劃、估計或期望實際上將會實現。

Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. W R Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

請參閱我們截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件，以了解我們經營所在的商業環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素的描述。W R Berkley Corporation 不承擔任何義務，並明確表示不承擔任何更新或更改其前瞻性聲明的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給羅布·伯克利先生。請繼續，先生。

Krista, thank you very much. And echoing Krista's comments, welcome to our Q3 call. In addition to me, on this end of the phone, you also have Executive Chairman, Bill Berkley; and Chief Financial Officer, Rich Baio.

克里斯塔，非常感謝你。並回應克里斯塔的評論，歡迎參加我們的第三季電話會議。除了我之外，電話那頭還有執行主席比爾·伯克利（Bill Berkley）；和財務長 Rich Baio。

We're going to follow a typical pattern, and that is Rich's certainly going to walk you through the highlights. I will then follow up with a few comments. And then, of course, we're very happy to open it up to Q&A and address any questions participants would have.

我們將遵循一個典型的模式，那就是 Rich 肯定會引導您了解亮點。然後我將提出一些評論。當然，我們很高興將其開放給問答環節並解決參與者可能提出的任何問題。

Before I hand it over to Rich, two points that I'd like to make, one, obviously, the third quarter and then more recently, even in the fourth quarter, there's been a significant amount of [net cat] activity. And oftentimes on these calls or any industry discussions, as we flagged in the past, people start talking about estimates and models and numbers, those are all important and real to consider.

在我將其交給 Rich 之前，我想提出兩點，一是，顯然，第三季度，然後是最近，甚至在第四季度，出現了大量的[淨貓]活動。正如我們過去所指出的那樣，在這些電話會議或任何行業討論中，人們常常開始談論估計、模型和數字，這些都是需要考慮的重要且真實的內容。

That having been said, from our perspective, this has impacted countless people's lives and that is not lost on us. So while we are certainly focused on the numbers and the economics, my colleagues and I are also acutely aware of the challenges that many people in this country are facing as a result of this cat activity.

話雖如此，從我們的角度來看，這已經影響了無數人的生活，我們也沒有忽視這一點。因此，雖然我們當然關注數位和經濟，但我和我的同事也敏銳地意識到這個國家的許多人因貓的活動而面臨的挑戰。

Further, in addition to extending our concern to all those impacted, I'd like to thank our claims colleagues that are going above and beyond to ensure that we deliver on our promise to all of our policy holders that have been impacted by these events. So again, thinking of those impacted and sending thanks to those that are doing their job and making sure that we deliver on our promise.

此外，除了向所有受影響的人表達我們的關注之外，我還要感謝我們的理賠同事，他們不遺餘力地確保我們兌現對所有受這些事件影響的保單持有人的承諾。再說一次，想想那些受到影響的人，並向那些盡職盡責並確保我們兌現承諾的人表示感謝。

The second topic I did want to flag, and it really stems from a subject matter that has been getting greater attention more recently, and that is the growth in the specialty space and in particular, the E&S market. I don't think it's lost on any of us the pace of change in the world, how it seems to be accelerating, the level of complexity and risk continues to be on the rise. And certainly, there are many contributing factors. But amongst those contributing factors, without a doubt, the climate change as well as social inflation. Both of these items are playing an important role in having a meaningful impact on the insurance industry.

我確實想指出的第二個主題，它確實源自於最近受到更多關注的一個主題，那就是專業領域，特別是 E&S 市場的成長。我認為我們任何人都沒有忘記世界變化的步伐，它似乎正在加速，複雜性和風險的水平繼續上升。當然，有很多因素。但在這些影響因素中，毫無疑問，氣候變遷和社會通貨膨脹。這兩項都在對保險業產生有意義的影響方面發揮著重要作用。

And quite frankly, as these two items are impacting loss cost trend, I think much of the standard market and specifically the admitted market, is having a difficult time pivoting. That is creating opportunity for, in particular, the non-admitted market.

坦白說，由於這兩項正在影響損失成本趨勢，我認為大部分標準市場，特別是公認的市場，正在經歷一段艱難的時期。這尤其為非准入市場創造了機會。

One of the pinch points that has not discussed as actively in the commercial lines market space as it is in the personal lines market space is the challenges on the regulatory front. There are many insurance departments that are struggling from a staffing perspective. And also, in addition to that, we see the impact of politics creeping in as well.

商業線路市場領域尚未像個人線路市場領域那樣積極討論的關鍵點之一是監管方面的挑戰。從人員配置的角度來看，許多保險部門都在苦苦掙扎。此外，除此之外，我們還看到政治的影響力也悄悄蔓延。

So as we look at the circumstance and we see this pinch point on the regulatory front, we think that that is likely to continue, that is likely to continue to drive more business into the specialty and in particular, the E&S market, and by extension, what we think that that is going to bode well for an organization such as ours with a particularly large footprint in the specialty space overall and in particular, the E&S marketplace.

因此，當我們審視當前情況並看到監管方面的這一關鍵點時，我們認為這種情況可能會持續下去，可能會繼續推動更多業務進入專業領域，特別是E&S 市場，進而延伸至其他領域。

So with that as a bit of a backdrop, I'm going to pause there. And Rich, I'll hand it over to you, please.

因此，以此為背景，我將在此暫停。里奇，請我把它交給你。

Great. Thanks, Rob. Good evening, everyone. Our record third-quarter net income resulted in increase of almost 10% over the prior year to $366 million, also contributing to a nine-month record net income of approximately $1.2 billion. We continue to generate outstanding returns on equity of 20% in the quarter in more than 21% year to date. Both strong underwriting and investment income contributed to our operating earnings of $374 million, or $0.93 per share.

偉大的。謝謝，羅布。大家晚上好。我們創紀錄的第三季淨利潤比上一年增長了近 10%，達到 3.66 億美元，也促成了 9 個月創紀錄的淨利潤約 12 億美元。本季我們的股本回報率持續保持在 20% 的水平，而年初至今則超過 21%。強勁的承銷和投資收入為我們帶來了 3.74 億美元的營業利潤，即每股 0.93 美元。

Despite the above-average catastrophic activity experienced by the industry, we've once again been able to demonstrate our careful and prudent underwriting discipline and in particular stability in earnings. Our calendar year combined ratio was 90.9%, inclusive of 3.3 loss ratio points from several cat events and 87.6% on an accident year ex cat basis.

儘管該行業經歷了高於平均水平的災難性活動，但我們再次證明了我們認真謹慎的承保紀律，特別是收益的穩定性。我們的日曆年綜合成本率為 90.9%，其中包括幾起貓事件造成的 3.3 個損失率點，以及事故年除貓之外的 87.6%。

During the quarter, there were four hurricanes that made landfall with Helene being the most destructive across several states and continuing SCS activity that contributed modestly to the total amount of cat losses. Our net premiums written grew above $3 billion for the second consecutive quarter and continues to benefit our record net premiums earned, which increased 10.8% over the prior year.

本季度，有四場颶風登陸，其中海倫颶風在多個州造成了最具破壞性的颶風，而持續的 SCS 活動對貓的損失總量影響不大。我們的淨承保保費連續第二個季度增長超過 30 億美元，並繼續有利於我們創紀錄的淨保費收入，比上年增長 10.8%。

Current accident year underwriting income, excluding cats, increased 13.4% to $362 million, pretax; adjusted for cat losses of $98 million; and prior-year favorable development of $1 million. Our current accident year loss ratio ex cat improved quarter over quarter by [0.05] to 59.1%, driven by business mix.

當前事故年的承保收入（不包括貓）增加了 13.4%，達到稅前 3.62 億美元；巨災損失調整為 9,800 萬美元；以及去年 100 萬美元的有利發展。在業務組合的推動下，我們目前的事故年損失率（除貓）環比改善了 [0.05] 至 59.1%。

We continue to invest in the business to drive efficiencies and better experience for our customers, combined with new startup operating units that we've announced before. The combination of these items, along with the changes in business mix and reinsurance structures, have contributed to the increase in our expense ratio by 20 basis points to 28.5%. As previously communicated, we continue to believe that our expense ratio should remain comfortably below 30%.

我們繼續投資該業務，以提高效率並為客戶提供更好的體驗，並結合我們先前宣布的新的新創營運部門。這些項目的結合，加上業務結構和再保險結構的變化，導致我們的費用率增加了 20 個基點，達到 28.5%。正如之前所傳達的，我們仍然認為我們的費用率應保持在 30% 以下。

Turning to investments. Pretax net investment income increased 20% to $324 million. Fixed maturity securities grew by more than $50 million with the Argentine inflation-linked securities normalizing to an amount commensurate with the prior-year quarter. We do not anticipate much change on a prospective basis regarding these securities. However, do remind you that when modeling out 2025, you should factor in the elevated non-recurring income in the first and second quarters of 2024.

轉向投資。稅前淨投資收益成長 20%，達到 3.24 億美元。固定期限證券成長超過 5,000 萬美元，阿根廷通膨掛鉤證券的金額正常化至與去年同期相當的水準。我們預計這些證券的前景不會有太大變化。不過，請提醒您，在對 2025 年進行建模時，您應該考慮到 2024 年第一季和第二季非經常性收入的增加。

Record operating cash flow in the quarter of $1.25 billion contributes to the record year-to-date cash flow of almost $2.9 billion. Combining the increase in investable assets with the new money rate that's higher than the roll-off book yield on our fixed maturity securities, we remain well positioned for further investment income growth.

本季營運現金流達到創紀錄的 12.5 億美元，導致年初至今創紀錄的現金流接近 29 億美元。將可投資資產的增加與高於固定期限證券滾存帳面收益率的新貨幣利率相結合，我們仍處於進一步投資收入成長的有利位置。

The credit quality of the investment portfolio remains at AA- and a duration is 2.4 years for the quarter. Foreign currency losses in the quarter of $25 million related to the US dollar weakening relative to most other currencies.

本季投資組合的信用品質維持為AA-，期限為2.4年。本季外匯損失達 2,500 萬美元，原因是美元相對於大多數其他貨幣走弱。

As mentioned in the past, we actively manage our foreign currency exposure and you'll note an improvement in our currency translation adjustment and stockholders' equity, which offsets the amount in the income statement. The effective tax rate remains elevated relative to the prior year, and it's been the case in the first half of the year due to the contribution of foreign earnings taxed at rates greater than the US statutory rate of 21%. This quarter was 23%, and we expect the fourth quarter will likely revert to the high 23% to 24% area that we saw earlier in the year.

正如過去所提到的，我們積極管理我們的外幣風險，您會注意到我們的貨幣換算調整和股東權益有所改善，這抵消了損益表中的金額。有效稅率相對於前一年仍然較高，今年上半年的情況也是如此，因為外國收入的稅率高於美國法定稅率21%。本季為 23%，我們預計第四季可能會恢復到今年稍早看到的 23% 至 24% 的高點。

Stockholders' equity increased above $8 billion for the first time to more than $8.4 billion, strong earnings of $366 million, coupled with an improvement in after-tax unrealized investment losses of $381 million, and currency translation gains of $49 million fueled the increase. The company also returned total capital of $138 million, consisting of $95 million of special dividends, $31 million of regular dividends, and $12.5 million of share repurchases at an average price per share of $52.30.

股東權益首次超過 80 億美元，達到 84 億美元以上，獲利強勁，達 3.66 億美元，加上稅後未實現投資損失改善 3.81 億美元，貨幣換算收益達 4,900 萬美元，推動了這一增長。該公司還返還了總資本1.38億美元，其中包括9500萬美元的特別股息、3100萬美元的定期股息以及1250萬美元的股票回購，每股平均價格為52.30美元。

Our total capitalization remains strong and our financial leverage ratio of 25.2% is at its lowest level in almost two decades. Book value per share before share repurchases and dividends grew 10% in the quarter and 20.1% year to date.

我們的總資本依然強勁，財務槓桿率為 25.2%，處於近二十年來的最低水準。股票回購和股利前的每股帳面價值本季成長 10%，年初至今成長 20.1%。

And with that, I'll turn it back to you Rob. Thank you.

有了這個，我會把它還給你，羅布。謝謝。

Rich, thank you. That was great. But let me just offer a couple of quick sound bites. I think Rich did a really thorough job in covering that, but a couple of follow-ups for me.

有錢，謝謝你。那很棒。但讓我簡單介紹一下。我認為里奇在這方面做得非常徹底，但也為我做了一些後續工作。

One on the rate. The rate ex comp for the quarter came in at 8.4%.

一是關於利率。該季度的扣除成本率為 8.4%。

A little additional context, auto liability is leading the way, closely followed by excess and umbrella. As we've been talking about for some number of quarters, perhaps at this stage it can even be measured in years, the loss trend on the auto line is something that we have been focused on. We feel good about where we are. But assuming this trend continues, we're going to need these additional dollars to make sure that we're well positioned for claims getting settled tomorrow.

補充一點，汽車責任處於領先地位，緊隨其後的是超額責任和保護傘責任。正如我們已經討論了幾個季度，也許現階段甚至可以用年來衡量，汽車線的虧損趨勢是我們一直關注的。我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。但假設這種趨勢持續下去，我們將需要這些額外的資金來確保我們為明天的索賠解決做好準備。

Rich obviously cover the loss ratio. I think 62.4% was 3.3-ish points of cats, not a bad outcome given the frequency of severity for those that are part of the [but for cloud], that's the 59.1%. That having been said, we've talked about this and talked about it, and I suspect we'll continue to talk about it.

豐富明顯彌補了損失比例。我認為 62.4% 是貓的 3.3 分左右，考慮到那些屬於 [但對於雲] 的嚴重程度的頻率，即 59.1%，這並不是一個壞結果。話雖如此，我們已經討論過這個問題，我懷疑我們會繼續討論它。

In our opinion, it's all about building book value with an eye towards risk adjusted return and the concept of backing out tax as if they don't exist. You would have thought that would have run its course by now, given every year we seem to have taxes as an industry. So again, from our perspective, when measure the business, it is a 62.4%.

我們認為，這一切都是為了建立帳面價值，著眼於風險調整回報和取消稅收的概念，就好像它們不存在一樣。你可能會認為這種情況現在已經結束了，因為我們作為一個行業似乎每年都有稅收。同樣，從我們的角度來看，當衡量業務時，它是 62.4%。

Rich also covered the expense ratio. Just a couple of quick comments from me. One, at this stage, we have a couple of businesses that are not at scale but are in the process to scaling over time. I expect that as they grow, you're going to see the benefit of that increased earned premium, and that will in there to the overall benefit of the group's expense ratio.

Rich 也涵蓋了費用比率。我只是簡單說幾句。第一，在現階段，我們有一些業務尚未形成規模，但隨著時間的推移正在擴大規模。我預計，隨著他們的成長，您將看到增加的已賺取保費的好處，這將帶來集團費用比率的整體好處。

That having been said, we are actively making investments, as you would expect, on the technology and data front. In particular, that's not cheap, but we believe we will get a good return on investment as well. Obviously, Rich talked about mix of business. That could have an impact.

話雖如此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們正在技術和數據方面積極進行投資。特別是，這並不便宜，但我們相信我們也會獲得良好的投資回報。顯然，里奇談到了業務組合。這可能會產生影響。

I think the other -- or the last piece that I would flag is the topic of reinsurance. By and large, we are a loan limits player. So our need to buy reinsurance is not the same as many of our peers that are far more dependent on reinsurance.

我認為另一個主題——或者說我要標記的最後一個主題是再保險。總的來說，我們是貸款限制玩家。因此，我們購買再保險的需求與許多更依賴再保險的同行不同。

We have absolutely no problem with our reinsurance partners making a profit. In fact, we expect and respect their need to make a reasonable risk-adjusted return. But every now and then, if you find oneself in market conditions where people are looking to take a more aggressive position or even gouge, we have the optionality to change our approach to reinsurance buying, and that can impact the expense ratio as well.

我們對再保險合作夥伴獲利絕對沒有問題。事實上，我們期望並尊重他們獲得合理的風險調整回報的需要。但時不時地，如果您發現自己處於市場條件下，人們希望採取更激進的立場，甚至進行欺詐，我們可以選擇改變我們的再保險購買方式，這也會影響費用比率。

Lastly, Rich touched a lot on the FX piece and the various ways that it's impacting our P&L. But the punch line for me as far as FX goes, Richard, correct me if I'm wrong, but it was about $0.05 to us on the per share.

最後，Rich 談到了外匯部分及其影響我們損益的各種方式。但就外匯而言，對我來說最有趣的是，理查德，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我們每股收益約為 0.05 美元。

Let me turn to investments for a moment and I'm going to take a brief trip down memory lane. So I apologize in advance for that and thank you all for indulging me. I think everyone recalls what was going on during the financial crisis. There was -- excuse me -- during the financial crisis and then again, during COVID, there was massive amounts of economic stimulation ramp into the system. When we saw that occurring, we had a view that there was no way that you were not going to see some level of inflation following that activity.

讓我暫時談談投資，我將回顧一下記憶。所以我先為此道歉，並感謝大家對我的包容。我想每個人都記得金融危機期間發生的事情。對不起，在金融危機期間，在新冠疫情期間，系統內出現了大量的經濟刺激措施。當我們看到這種情況發生時，我們認為，在該活動之後，您不可能不會看到一定程度的通貨膨脹。

It took a while to came through, but it did come through. And it came through in spades. Ultimately, the government took the action one would expect, and the interest rates moved up, particularly on the short end. We found ourselves with an inverted yield curve. And we, as an organization, were rewarded for the decision to keep our duration short. Our investment income increased dramatically over a relatively short period of time.

雖然花了一段時間才通過，但它確實通過了。它毫無疑問地實現了。最終，政府採取了人們所期望的行動，利率上升，尤其是短期利率。我們發現自己的殖利率曲線倒掛了。作為一個組織，我們因縮短工期的決定而獲得獎勵。我們的投資收益在相對較短的時間內大幅成長。

From our perspective looking forward, it is likely in our opinion, more likely than not, that yes, while inflation may be coming down, we don't think it is going to fall off a cliff. And our expectation is that short-term rates will come down, but they are perhaps not going to come down as quickly or as aggressively as some have suggested.

從我們未來的角度來看，我們認為，雖然通膨可能會下降，但我們認為它不會斷崖式下跌。我們的預期是短期利率將會下降，但可能不會像某些人建議的那樣快速或大幅下降。

In addition to that, regardless of who you expect will be in the White House, there is no doubt if you take them at their word, which is a hard thing to do, but for purposes of conversation, if you take each candidate at their word, they are looking to grow the deficit by what would be measured by the trillions of dollars. So with that as a reality from our perspective, it is inevitable that the federal government in this country, not dissimilar to other parts of the world, but certainly in this country, will be growing its deficit. And there is a real question about supply and demand for government that going forward.

除此之外，無論你預計誰會入主白宮，毫無疑問，你是否相信他們的話，這是一件很難做到的事情，但出於對話的目的，如果你相信每個候選人的話換句話說，他們希望增加數兆美元的赤字。因此，從我們的角度來看，這是一個現實，這個國家的聯邦政府（與世界其他地區沒有什麼不同，但在這個國家肯定會增加赤字）是不可避免的。未來政府的供給和需求確實有問題。

So what does this all mean? It means from our perspective, we think you're going to see the yield curve take more and more of a traditional shape. We think that that is going to create, as we've discussed in the past, an opportunity for us to be nudging out our duration, and simultaneously, our book yield ticking up.

那麼這一切意味著什麼呢？這意味著從我們的角度來看，我們認為您將看到殖利率曲線越來越接近傳統形狀。我們認為，正如我們過去所討論的那樣，這將為我們創造一個延長期限的機會，同時，我們的帳面收益率也會上升。

So speaking more specifically to our numbers today, as Rich mentioned earlier, the duration is sitting at 2.4 years. Our domestic book yield is 4.5%. Our new money rate today, that is something north of 5%. We do not believe that we are going to have to give up much on that new money rate, rather what you will see is we will be taking that 2.4 duration and nudging it out.

因此，更具體地說，正如 Rich 之前提到的，我們今天的數據顯示，持續時間為 2.4 年。我們國內的帳面收益率是4.5%。我們今天的新貨幣利率約為 5%。我們不認為我們將不得不放棄太多新的貨幣利率，相反，您將看到我們將採用 2.4 的久期並將其淘汰。

As a reminder, for us, if you look at the average life of our loss reserves, it is just inside of four years. So given that reality, we have a lot of room to take that duration out, and that again will allow us to maintain or actually improve the book yield from where it is today, and quite frankly, maintain that new money rate at levels that I was referring to earlier.

提醒一下，對我們來說，如果你看看我們損失準備金的平均壽命，它就在四年之內。因此，考慮到這一現實，我們有很大的空間來延長這一期限，這將再次使我們能夠維持或實際上提高目前的帳面收益率，並且坦率地說，將新貨幣利率維持在我認為的水平之前有提到。

So let's get to the punch line as we will, and then we'll turn the conversation to anywhere participants would like to take it.

因此，讓我們按照我們的意願進入妙語，然後我們將主題轉向參與者想要的任何地方。

So what is the story? What is the, I guess, the punch line? The punch line is this, the business continues to grow. The rate increases that we're getting we believe is keeping up with trend, actually probably exceeding trend. So all things being equal, our underwriting margin is likely to continue to improve.

那麼故事是怎麼樣的呢？我猜，妙語是什麼？妙語是，業務持續成長。我們認為利率上漲符合趨勢，實際上可能超過趨勢。因此，在所有條件相同的情況下，我們的承保利潤率可能會持續提高。

In addition to that, when you looked at the contribution of the other part of our economic model, that being the investment portfolio, the fact of the matter is our new money rate is and will likely remain above our current book yield. Our cash flow remains exceptionally strong; hence, the portfolio is growing.

除此之外，當你看看我們經濟模型的另一部分（即投資組合）的貢獻時，事實是我們的新貨幣利率現在並且很可能保持在我們當前帳面收益率之上。我們的現金流仍然異常強勁；因此，投資組合正在成長。

And so what does that mean? That means investment income is going to continue to increase from here. So more underwriting income, more investment income is ultimately going to mean more earnings for the foreseeable future. And quite frankly, we think the business is as well positioned today as it has ever been.

那麼這意味著什麼呢？這意味著投資收入將繼續增加。因此，更多的核保收入、更多的投資收入最終意味著在可預見的未來有更多的收益。坦白說，我們認為該業務今天的定位與以往一樣良好。

So let me pause there. Krista, we will ask you to please open it up for questions.

讓我暫停一下。克里斯塔，我們會請您打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

My first question, just on the reserves, I think the movement was negligible in the quarter. Was there any movement within insurance versus reinsurance in terms of prior-year reserve development?

我的第一個問題是關於儲備金，我認為本季的變動可以忽略不計。就上一年度的準備金發展而言，保險與再保險之間是否有任何變化？

To tell you the truth, Elyse, it was reasonably uneventful between the segments. I think, Rich, there was a couple of million going away.

說實話，愛麗絲，各個部分之間的情況相當平靜。我想，里奇，有幾百萬美元消失了。

[$3 million] favorable on the insurance and $2 million adverse on the reinsurance and monoline.

[300 萬美元] 對保險有利，200 萬美元對再保險和單險不利。

So not overly noteworthy.

所以並不過分值得注意。

Okay, thanks. And then the premium growth did slow within insurance in the quarter. I believe it went from ex workers' comp around 13% to 14% to 9%. So it looks like the implied impact from exposure went from something in the range of 5% to 6% to flat given that you gave us that 8.4% ex comp pricing.

好的，謝謝。然後，本季保險業的保費成長確實放緩。我相信前工人的補償從 13% 左右上升到 14% 再到 9%。因此，考慮到您為我們提供了 8.4% 的稅前補償定價，風險敞口的隱含影響似乎從 5% 到 6% 之間變得持平。

Just looking to just get some color on the exposure piece or just what went on within the premiums within insurance ex comp in the quarter.

只是想了解一下風險敞口或本季保險費用補償中保費的情況。

Yeah. I mean, as you can, I know, appreciate, Elyse, there's a lot of moving pieces. Maybe just to call out the big ones, it would really be just referencing my comment earlier around the auto line, in particular, and to a meaningful extent, the excess and the umbrella line. But those product lines are really no pun intended being driven by our view on auto.

是的。我的意思是，我知道，你可以欣賞，Elyse，有很多感人的作品。也許只是為了指出大的，這實際上只是參考我之前關於汽車產品線的評論，特別是在有意義的程度上，多餘的和傘式產品線。但這些產品線確實不是雙關語，是由我們對汽車的看法所驅動的。

So we have a view as to what rate adequacy is to my colleague's credit. They have drawn lines in the sand, and they've been waiting for the marketplace to catch up to them and to share the view. So that had a meaningful impact on the quarter for what it's worth and this is like way under the Safe Harbor comment.

因此，我們對利率充足性對同事的功勞有何看法。他們已經在沙灘上劃定了界限，並一直在等待市場趕上他們並分享觀點。因此，這對該季度的價值產生了有意義的影響，這就像安全港評論中的方式一樣。

When we look at October, there is evidence that would suggest that the world is increasingly coming to the conclusion that we had already come to and is in the process of catching up. So when I look at the growth in the quarter, I would caution you not to assume that that's a new normal given the evidence we're seeing in October. I think it's likely that, again, the world is quickly catching up to us.

當我們回顧 10 月時，有證據表明，世界越來越多地得出這樣的結論：我們已經得出了這樣的結論，並且正在迎頭趕上。因此，當我審視本季的成長時，我會提醒您，鑑於我們在 10 月看到的證據，不要認為這是一種新常態。我認為世界很可能再次迅速追上我們。

So given that comment, Rob, would you expect -- I guess, you've kind of steered us in the direction of expecting 10% to 15% top-line growth based on how you see October as well as your view for next year, or would you expect to be back in the Q4 and then in 2025?

因此，考慮到這一評論，Rob，您是否會期望 - 我想，根據您對 10 月份的看法以及對明年的看法，您已經引導我們朝著預期 10％ 至 15％ 的收入增長的方向發展，或者您預計會在第四季然後在2025 年回歸？

I don't have a perfect crystal ball, but I continue to believe, given the breadth of our offering, and I believe that we, as an organization, on an annual basis, should be able to grow between that 10% and 15%. As I think I've suggested to you and others, there could be a quarter where we exceed that. There could be a quarter where we come in below that. But yes, on an annual basis, I continue to believe that we, as an organization, should be running at that level.

我沒有完美的水晶球，但我仍然相信，考慮到我們提供的產品的廣度，而且我相信我們作為一個組織，每年應該能夠增長 10% 到 15% 。正如我想我已經向您和其他人建議的那樣，我們可能有四分之一的時間會超過這個數字。可能有四分之一的時間我們會低於這個水準。但是，是的，我仍然相信，我們作為一個組織，每年都應該達到這個水平。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hey, good afternoon. So I was hoping to dive into loss trend a little bit. I think looking back a few years ago, you guys might have noted that -- or implied that it was in sort of the 5% to 6% range. So I was just curious, any thoughts or any color you could provide on the loss trend in insurance today? And is financial inflation coming down a reason to maybe loosen the loss trend assumptions in some places at this point?

嘿，下午好。所以我希望能稍微深入研究一下虧損趨勢。我想回顧幾年前，你們可能已經注意到這一點——或者暗示它在 5% 到 6% 的範圍內。所以我只是很好奇，您對當今保險業的損失趨勢有什麼想法或看法嗎？金融通膨下降是否是目前某些地方放鬆損失趨勢假設的一個原因？

Well, Rob, I don't remember exactly what we may have said some number of years ago. I don't even remember what I had for lunch today at this stage. But let me give you a little color as to how we think about it.

好吧，羅布，我不太記得我們幾年前說過的話了。我甚至不記得今天午餐吃了什麼。但讓我給你一些關於我們如何看待它的顏色。

As I said earlier, ex comp, we got 8.4%. I believe that we are comfortably in excess of trend at that level. Obviously, it varies greatly by product line. But we're very focused on making sure that rate adequacy continues to be the priority for us.

正如我之前所說，扣除補償後，我們得到了 8.4%。我相信我們在這個水平上已經輕鬆超過了趨勢。顯然，不同產品線的差異很大。但我們非常注重確保利率充足性仍然是我們的首要任務。

So we're not in a position to be able to start giving you what do we use for trend by product line or even give you a blended number at this stage. But I think you hopefully can take comfort as I do that at 8.4%, we are clearing the hurdle by a margin.

因此，現階段我們無法開始向您提供我們按產品線使用的趨勢數據，甚至無法為您提供混合數字。但我認為您可以放心，因為我以 8.4% 的速度做到了這一點，我們正在以微弱優勢清除障礙。

That having been said, as we've also said in the past, and this I have pretty clear recollection of, is that we understand and have a respect for the unknown. And while I think there are others perhaps in the marketplace that have a firm view on what loss trend is and to the extent that they are coming in in excess of that, they will be dropping their pick. And obviously, it's for them to decide how they operate their business.

話雖如此，正如我們過去也說過的那樣，我記得很清楚，那就是我們理解並尊重未知。雖然我認為市場上可能還有其他人對損失趨勢有堅定的看法，如果他們的損失超過了這個趨勢，他們就會放棄他們的選擇。顯然，由他們決定如何經營業務。

But from our perspective, given the uncertainties of the insurance industry, we are not going to get ahead of ourselves. And one would have thought, even what has transpired and how the industry has been impacted by social inflation, people would have learned from that and elected to err on the side of caution.

但從我們的角度來看，鑑於保險業的不確定性，我們不會超越自己。人們可能會認為，即使發生了什麼事，以及該行業如何受到社會通貨膨脹的影響，人們也會從中吸取教訓，並選擇謹慎行事。

As far as shorter tail lines in your question, clearly, financial inflation was one of the big drivers for short tail lines. We saw -- and obviously, property and there was a meaningful impact on the auto physical damage line as well. Without a doubt, a lot of the pressure that was stemming from a more inflationary environment has subsided and that is giving a bit of a release.

就您問題中較短的尾線而言，顯然，金融通膨是短尾線的主要驅動因素之一。顯然，我們看到財產和汽車物理損壞線也受到了有意義的影響。毫無疑問，通膨加劇的環境帶來的許多壓力已經消退，這帶來了一些釋放。

That having been said, I would suggest to you on the social inflation front, particularly impacting many of the liability lines, I think that that is as challenging as ever is probably the right way to characterize it.

話雖如此，我建議您在社會通貨膨脹方面，特別是對許多責任線的影響，我認為這與以往一樣具有挑戰性，這可能是描述它的正確方式。

Very helpful and very comprehensive. Thank you, Rob. Maybe just as a follow-up on the hurricanes this quarter and into 4Q, clearly some really unfortunate losses there in a number of levels from the recent storms. Do you have a sense of how the market might react from a pricing perspective across admitted E&S and reinsurance? And any impacts outside of the Southeast?

非常有幫助而且非常全面。謝謝你，羅布。也許只是本季和第四季颶風的後續行動，顯然最近的風暴在多個層面上造成了一些非常不幸的損失。您是否了解市場從定價角度對公認的 E&S 和再保險可能做出的反應？東南部以外的地區有什麼影響嗎？

I think it's a little bit early to reach a conclusion on that. I think we're going to -- at this stage, the outcome of both storms you referenced, and particularly, Milton, I don't think that has really come into a very sharp focus, and we're going to just have to see where things settle out. I think the reinsurance marketplace is doing what it can to position itself, as I understand it, for flat, and my expectation is that unless Milton proves to be uglier, it is going to be a challenge for them to actually achieve flat.

我認為現在下結論還為時過早。我認為，在現階段，您提到的兩場風暴的結果，特別是米爾頓，我認為這並沒有真正成為人們關注的焦點，我們只需要看看事情會如何解決。我認為再保險市場正在盡其所能，據我所知，將自己定位為持平，而我的期望是，除非米爾頓被證明更醜陋，否則他們真正實現持平將是一個挑戰。

As far as the insurance marketplace goes, we'll see how it unfolds, and we're going to have to see what the losses are. I think with Helena, the real challenge there was much of the loss occurred in ZIP codes where this type of natural catastrophe isn't supposed to happen. So you have a lot of people that's taking a very big step backwards and trying to grapple with, what does this mean for exposure? What does this mean for adequate pricing?

就保險市場而言，我們將看看它如何發展，我們將不得不看看損失有多大。我認為對海倫娜來說，真正的挑戰是大部分損失發生在郵遞區號中，而這種類型的自然災害不應該發生。因此，很多人都在倒退一大步，並試圖解決這對曝光意味著什麼？這對於適當的定價意味著什麼？

So that was a long-winded answer. The short answer is, I think it's still in the process of coming into focus.

所以這是一個冗長的答案。簡短的回答是，我認為它仍在成為焦點的過程中。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼，TD·考恩。

So back on the net written premium element. So overall, you came in, I think, close to 8% in insurance, a little shy of the 10% to 15%. But as you mentioned earlier, it could bump around Q-to-Q.

所以回到網路上寫的溢價元素。總的來說，我認為保險方面的比例接近 8%，略低於 10% 到 15%。但正如您之前提到的，它可能會在季度之間出現波動。

What I'd like to get a sense of is kind of the outlook. Am I understanding it right? So short-term premium was up low double digit. It seems to me (multiple speakers)

我想了解的是前景。我理解正確嗎？因此，短期溢價上漲了兩位數。在我看來（多個發言者）

Sorry. When you say short-term premium, are you short tail (inaudible)?

對不起。當你說短期溢價時，你是短尾嗎（聽不清楚）？

I meant short tail, I'm sorry. So short tail was up low double digit. And my sense there is you're seeing a fair amount of PIF growth, where in contrast, other liability, auto, professional liability, with those lines being up in the low single digits premium-wise, net written premium, it would strike me that PIF is going backwards. Am I reading that properly? (multiple speakers)

我的意思是短尾巴，對不起。因此，短尾上漲了低兩位數。我的感覺是，你看到了相當多的 PIF 增長，相比之下，其他責任、汽車責任、專業責任，這些額度的保費淨保費以低個位數增長，這讓我震驚PIF 正在倒退。我讀得正確嗎？（多個發言者）

Yes, I think that you are correct. On the auto line, our exposure is shrinking at a pretty healthy pace during the quarter for the reasons that I suggested. And our hope is between now and the end of the year, maybe spilling over into early next year, you're going to continue to see more discipline coming in. And we were -- early signs were somewhat encouraging during the month of October.

是的，我認為你是對的。在汽車產品線上，由於我提出的原因，我們的風險敞口在本季以相當健康的速度萎縮。我們希望從現在到今年年底，也許會延續到明年初，您將繼續看到更多的紀律。十月的早期跡像有些令人鼓舞。

In addition to that, the workers' comp line, which was pretty much flat, please understand part of the exposure is not -- being payrolls and wage inflation is playing a role in that as well. So in many cases, our exposure is coming down there as well.

除此之外，工人的補償線幾乎持平，請理解部分風險敞口並非如此——工資和工資通膨也在其中發揮了作用。所以在很多情況下，我們的曝光率也會下降。

So as always, we are looking for where we believe the margin is, and we are leaning into that in places where we have a view that a more defensive posture is appropriate. We are not going to compromise on our underwriting. And sometimes there's a lag for the world to catch up to you. And I think that's what we're seeing in the auto line. But again, we're encouraged in this month, at least, the world seems to be waking up to that reality.

因此，一如既往，我們正在尋找我們認為的餘地，並且在我們認為採取更具防禦性的姿態是合適的地方，我們會傾向於這一點。我們不會在承保方面妥協。有時，世界要趕上你會有些延遲。我認為這就是我們在汽車產品線中看到的情況。但至少在這個月，我們再次受到鼓舞，世界似乎正在​​醒悟到這個現實。

As far as the reinsurance front, pivoting over to that segment, the growth that you're seeing, particularly on the property, is just a reflection of market conditions, and we still like the trade there. The flatness that you're seeing on the casualty lines is really just a reflection of ours.

就再保險方面而言，轉向該領域，您所看到的增長，尤其是財產方面的增長，只是市場狀況的反映，我們仍然喜歡那裡的交易。你在傷亡線上看到的平坦度其實只是我們的反映。

And we've commented for some number of quarters on this, our dissatisfaction with the economics and quite frankly, the ceding commissions, they need to come down, and that's what's led to our position there.

我們已經在幾個季度對此發表了評論，我們對經濟的不滿，坦率地說，放棄的佣金需要下降，這就是導致我們在那裡的立場的原因。

Got it. And just rounding that out, Rob, it sounds like you like the short tail lines that's a PIF grower. And then the other liability and professional are kind of dipping a little bit in line with auto with the discipline you're showing. Is that fair?

知道了。最後，Rob，聽起來你喜歡 PIF 種植者的短尾線。然後其他責任和專業人士與汽車和你所表現出的紀律有點一致。這樣公平嗎？

I think I would characterize it -- Rich, the other liability was -- I don't have it in front of me. I have it at mostly 9%.

我想我會描述它——里奇，另一個責任是——我面前沒有它。我的大概是9%。

Yeah, I think that there's, I think that there's just a lot of pieces that are moving around. The E&S in particular, is growing quite a bit. On the other hand, some of the things that we talked about as it relates to the admitted casualty, that is more challenging.

是的，我認為有很多東西在移動。尤其是 E&S，成長相當快。另一方面，我們討論的一些與已承認的傷亡人員有關的事情更具挑戰性。

Got it. And then just lastly on prior-year developments. Anything of note in the 2020 to '23 accident years?

知道了。最後是去年的發展。2020 年至 23 事故年有什麼值得注意的事情嗎？

Rich, anything that is noteworthy during those years that you wanted to flag?

Rich，那些年裡有什麼值得注意的事情是你想要標記的嗎？

I would say it's consistent with what we've been communicating previously and what you've said in terms of the commercial auto liability being an area that is a key focus for us.

我想說，這與我們之前溝通的內容以及您所說的商用汽車責任是我們重點關注的領域是一致的。

Key focus, meaning that you had maybe a bump or an unfavorable? Or just pretty steady?

重點關注，這意味著您可能遇到了障礙或不利的情況？還是只是相當穩定？

I don't have the numbers exactly in front of me, but we had a little bit of noise coming out of the commercial auto liability. Nothing particularly overwhelming, but certainly evidence of that product line is positioned for a need of change.

我面前沒有確切的數字，但我們有一些來自商業汽車責任的噪音。沒有什麼特別壓倒性的，但確實有證據表明該產品線需要改變。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

My first question, Rob, when you talk about the non-admitted market, E&S, are you speaking specifically to the kind of the statutory US definition? We can kind of track on a yearly basis, what you're -- how much US stamped, I guess, E&S you have? Or do you also includes the way you guys think about it non-US that might not be able to [date or run] or see on paper?

我的第一個問題，Rob，當您談論非准入市場 E&S 時，您是專門針對美國法定定義的類型嗎？我們可以每年追蹤一下，你是什麼——我猜你有多少美國印章的 E&S？或者您是否還包括了您對非美國國家可能無法[約會或跑步]或在紙上看到的想法的看法？

So certainly, a meaningful percentage of what we write non-admitted is through Lloyd's. So Mike, I guess, to your question, you're seeing the US carriers, but I don't think you're picking up the Lloyd's piece would be my guess.

因此，當然，我們所寫的非承認內容中有很大一部分是透過勞埃德的。所以麥克，我想，對於你的問題，你看到的是美國航空公司，但我認為你不會選擇勞合社的作品。

Okay, got it. That's right. And just -- I don't know if we don't have -- this has to be that educational. But is the Lloyd's business, is it very different than the US E&S business that makes up the majority of what you do? Is it on a large account versus a small account or anything notable there?

好的，明白了。這是正確的。只是──我不知道我們是否沒有──這必須具有教育意義。但勞合社的業務與構成你們業務大部分的美國 E&S 業務有很大不同嗎？是大帳戶還是小帳戶，或是有什麼值得注意的地方？

The vast majority of what we do in Lloyd's is US-centric. And while there is some, if you will, shared and layered, a huge percentage of it is smaller accounts as well. So it's generally speaking, a reflection of our overall philosophy, but they do participate in some shared and layered.

我們在勞合社所做的絕大多數工作都是以美國為中心的。雖然有一些（如果你願意的話）是共享和分層的，但其中很大一部分也是較小的帳戶。所以一般來說，這反映了我們的整體理念，但它們確實參與了一些共享和分層。

Okay, got it. And I think it was clear, your answers to kind of your view of revenue growth going forward.

好的，明白了。我認為很清楚，您對未來收入成長的看法的答案。

But just curious, Marsh McLennan, for example, releases an index of pricing by line of business and excess casualty/umbrella has accelerated meaningfully quarter over quarter to maybe plus 20% levels. Maybe that's more of a large account phenomenon, which you don't play in as much. But I just kind of get -- trying to understand whether you feel like there's more potential to play offense, specifically in social inflationary lines to the extent you do continue to see pricing move north.

但出於好奇，例如 Marsh McLennan 發布了按業務線劃分的定價指數，超額傷亡/保護傘費用逐季顯著加速，達到可能+ 20% 的水平。也許這更像是一種大帳戶現象，而您不經常參與這種現象。但我只是想了解一下，你是否覺得有更多的進攻潛力，特別是在社會通膨方面，你確實會繼續看到價格上漲。

I guess the way I would answer that, Mike, is we pay attention to different parts of the market. We have a view as to what the margin is. And where we think the opportunities are, we're going to lean into it. And where we think, again, a more defensive posture is appropriate, we will do so.

麥克，我想我的回答是我們關注市場的不同部分。我們對利潤有一個看法。我們認為哪裡有機會，我們就會抓住它。如果我們再次認為採取更具防禦性的姿態是合適的，我們就會這樣做。

So do I think that there is meaningful opportunity in the excess and umbrella space to capture the additional rate? Yeah, I do. Do I believe my colleagues are executing on that? Yes, I do. But please keep in mind, while we participate with some of the larger accounts, again, the vast majority of what we do is on the smaller end of town. And there is plenty of opportunity there to get more rate, and we're doing it.

那麼，我是否認為在過剩空間和保護傘空間中存在有意義的機會來獲取附加費率？是的，我願意。我相信我的同事們正在執行這一點嗎？是的，我願意。但請記住，雖然我們參與了一些較大的客戶，但我們所做的絕大多數工作都是在城鎮較小的一端。那裡有很多獲得更高利率的機會，我們正在這樣做。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克休斯，Truist 證券公司。

I think you had mentioned that the improvement in the current accident year was business mix. I wanted to make sure that I heard that properly. And then Rob, I thought you might have said that with the rates exceeding the loss trend, the underwriting margin should continue to improve. How should I think about those statements?

我想您曾提到，目前事故年度的改善是業務組合。我想確保我聽到的是正確的。然後，羅布，我想你可能會說，隨著費率超過損失趨勢，承保利潤率應該會繼續改善。我該如何看待這些言論？

I think -- well, two things. First off, as far as the business mix, we were pleased with the progress that has been made on the property ex cat front or the attritional loss ratio. I think that's something we talked about, I don't know -- probably lose track of time, a year, 18 months, 2 years ago, and my colleagues have done a great job in getting us to a better place, and that has coming to be on the loss ratio.

我認為——嗯，有兩件事。首先，就業務組合而言，我們對在除貓前的財產或自然損耗率方面取得的進展感到滿意。我想這就是我們談論過的事情，我不知道——可能忘記了時間，一年，18 個月，兩年前，我的同事們在讓我們走向更好的地方方面做得很好，這已經即將成為損失率。

I think as far as the rate increase and how that's going to come through, look, we have a view on trend, and we have an understanding of how much rate we're getting. And the delta between the two in theory should ultimately inure to the benefit of the margin. But we are not in a rush to declare victory prematurely.

我認為就加息以及如何實現這一點而言，我們對趨勢有看法，我們了解我們將獲得多少升息。理論上，兩者之間的差異最終應該符合保證金的利益。但我們並不急於過早宣布勝利。

And then the tax rate for next year, what should we think about that?

那麼明年的稅率，我們該怎麼想呢？

You should think about it being too much. Rich, do you want to comment on it?

你應該考慮一下是不是太多了。里奇，你想對此發表評論嗎？

I would say that based on where our foreign earnings are today, if we continue down that path, I would think we would expect a rate that's to commensurate with what we're showing this year, which I would say would be somewhere in that 23.5% to 24% area. But as Rob alluded to, we're certainly looking at ways to try and keep that rate down as much as we can.

我想說的是，根據我們今天的海外收入情況，如果我們繼續沿著這條路走下去，我認為我們預計的增長率將與我們今年的表現相稱，我想說這將在23.5 的某個地方% 至 24% 面積。但正如羅布所提到的，我們當然正在尋找方法來盡可能降低這一比率。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克，美國銀行。

Rich may have said it, where is the new money yield on purchases going on right now for the portfolio?

里奇可能已經說過了，現在投資組合的新購買貨幣收益率在哪裡？

I think it was me and got slightly over 5%. I'd use more than 5%, less than 5.25%. Those are the bookends for you.

我認為是我，得到了略高於 5% 的結果。我會使用超過 5%、低於 5.25% 的比例。這些是給你的書立。

And is that being purchased at a different duration than that (multiple speakers)

購買的時間是否與此不同（多個發言者）

Just to be clear, that's on the domestic. So you would compare that to the 4.5% that we flagged earlier

需要說明的是，這是在國內。所以你可以將其與我們之前標記的 4.5% 進行比較

Okay. Is the duration -- is there a lengthening going on given the changes in the yield curve behavior?

好的。鑑於殖利率曲線行為的變化，久期是否正在延長？

Incremental, yes correct. So far. But we'll see what comes over time.

增量，是的，正確的。迄今為止。但我們會看看隨著時間的推移會發生什麼。

That's exactly what I mean. What would we need to see for you to say that longer is better?

這正是我的意思。我們需要看到什麼才能讓您說時間越長越好？

I think, Josh, we probably don't have a specific answer, but what I can tell you is we're playing close attention to it, watching it every day, and we'll see how the story unfolds. But I don't have a specific road map that I'm in a position to share with you at this time.

我想，喬什，我們可能沒有具體的答案，但我可以告訴你的是，我們正在密切關注它，每天觀看它，我們會看到故事如何展開。但我目前沒有具體的路線圖可以跟大家分享。

And if credit at all is concern -- I mean, it's always a concern, but given outlook for things, are you incrementally more concerned or less concerned about credit compared to where you were a year ago?

如果信貸確實令人擔憂——我的意思是，它始終是一個令人擔憂的問題，但考慮到事物的前景，與一年前相比，你對信貸的擔憂是逐漸增加還是減少？

I think we are always concerned about credit. And that's why as Rich flagged, we're maintaining a very strong AA- on the credit quality of the fixed income portfolio. And you will not see us compromising on quality just to try and fluff up the book yield, if you will.

我認為我們始終關注信用問題。這就是為什麼正如 Rich 所指出的，我們對固定收益投資組合的信用品質維持非常強的 AA- 評級。如果你願意的話，你也不會看到我們為了提高圖書產量而在品質上做出妥協。

We saw colleagues doing that, quite frankly, during the financial crisis where they -- as well as in during COVID where they compromised on duration and compromise on quality, and that's just not something we're going to do.

坦白說，我們看到同事們在金融危機期間以及在新冠疫情期間這樣做，他們在工期和品質上做出了妥協，而這不是我們要做的事情。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Rob, I had a question just on the insurance business. So the 60.2% accident year loss ratio ex cat improved 50 basis points year over year. It sounds like all of that was mix and some of the progress you guys have been making on some of those fire losses from a bit ago.

羅布，我有一個關於保險業務的問題。因此，60.2% 的事故年損失率（Ex Cat）比去年同期提高了 50 個基點。聽起來所有這些都是混合的，你們在不久前的一些火災損失方面取得了一些進展。

I guess I just wanted to see if there's anything unsustainable in the result as well that might be flattering things from maybe like a light non-cap property perspective or anything else that you'd highlight.

我想我只是想看看結果中是否有任何不可持續的東西，以及可能從輕型非上限財產角度或您強調的其他任何東西來看可能令人高興的事情。

No. So look, obviously, we'll know through the passage of time, but the biggest contributor to the improvement that you're referencing was the attritional loss ratio associated with the property.

不。所以，顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們會知道，但您提到的改善的最大貢獻者是與財產相關的損耗率。

So do I think we just got lucky? My sense is when I look at it, I don't think that's necessarily the case. I think we have many colleagues that are working really hard and have improved the situation, and you're seeing it come through. But again, that's my sense based on what I have seen. We'll see more over time.

那我認為我們只是幸運嗎？我的感覺是，當我看到它時，我認為情況不一定如此。我認為我們有很多同事非常努力地工作並改善了情況，並且您正在看到它的實現。但同樣，這是我基於所見所聞的感覺。隨著時間的推移我們會看到更多。

And then I guess, is that something that -- I mean, is that like fully in the numbers now? Or is that something like we should continue to see that improvement going forward specifically on that attritional property book?

然後我想，這是否是——我的意思是，現在的數字完全是這樣嗎？或者說我們應該繼續看到特別是在消耗性財產簿上的改進？

David, not trying to be difficult, but they are what they are as we share them with you, and that's us being completely transparent. Could it get better from here? Yeah, it could. Could it somehow take a step back? Yeah.

大衛，我並不是想難為難，但它們就是我們與你們分享時的樣子，這就是我們完全透明的態度。從這裡開始情況會變得更好嗎？是的，可以。它能以某種方式後退一步嗎？是的。

I mean, I can't guarantee or promise exactly what tomorrow will bring. But based on my look at it, I'm encouraged by the progress that has been made, and I think it's a reflection of the efforts of many of our colleagues.

我的意思是，我無法保證或承諾明天會發生什麼。但根據我的觀察，我對所取得的進展感到鼓舞，我認為這反映了我們許多同事的努力。

And then maybe -- I saw this in the 10-Q in the first quarter and the second quarter. It looked like there was some adverse that you guys -- adverse PYD that you guys have taken on the other liability line of business for accident year '21. And I guess I'm just wondering if that continued here in the third quarter and also just how accident year '22 and 2023 are holding up.

然後也許——我在第一季和第二季的 10-Q 中看到了這一點。看來你們對 21 年事故的其他責任業務承擔了不利的 PYD。我想我只是想知道這種情況是否會在第三季繼續下去，以及 22 年和 2023 年的意外情況會如何持續。

I think as opposed to getting into that detail, we'll have a lot of it in the queue and ask that once you have a chance to flip through the queue, if you have any questions, please reach out to us.

我認為，與深入討論這個細節相反，我們將在隊列中處理很多問題，並要求一旦您有機會翻閱隊列，如果您有任何疑問，請與我們聯繫。

Okay. Sounds good. Thank you.

好的。聽起來不錯。謝謝。

But for what it's worth, there's nothing, as Rich suggested earlier, there's nothing concerning or alarming from our perspective.

但就其價值而言，正如里奇之前所說，從我們的角度來看，沒有什麼值得擔心或令人擔憂的。

Ryan Tunis, Autonomous Research.

Ryan Tunis，自主研究。

I guess just the first question, thinking about the 10% to 15% growth and trying to figure out if I'm thinking about this right. So is it what you're really saying is you think that Berkeley is a 10% to 15% grower but you flagged some risk reduction or remediation or what have you commercial auto over the next few quarters? And perhaps while you're doing that, it might be more of a challenge to do 10% to 15%.

我想只是第一個問題，思考 10% 到 15% 的成長，並試著弄清楚我的想法是否正確。那麼，您真正想說的是，您認為柏克萊的成長率為 10% 至 15%，但您提出了一些風險降低或補救措施，或者您在未來幾季的商用汽車方面有何進展？也許當你這樣做時，做到 10% 到 15% 可能會更具挑戰性。

I'm just trying to understand, am I thinking about that right that the 10% to 15% is sort of a longer-term view?

我只是想了解，我是否認為 10% 到 15% 是一種長期觀點？

Well, let me at least try to answer your question. I think what we have suggested and are trying to suggest today on an annual basis, we believe the business can grow at 10% to 15%. In addition, as we suggested in the past, there could be a quarter where we grow more, there could be a quarter that we'd grow less. Ultimately for us, while we certainly would like to grow, underwriting margin is king, queen, whatever label you'd like to use.

好吧，至少讓我嘗試回答你的問題。我認為我們已經提出的建議以及今天試圖提出的建議是，我們相信業務每年可以成長 10% 到 15%。此外，正如我們過去所建議的那樣，可能有一個季度我們成長較多，也可能有一個季度我們成長較少。最終對我們來說，雖然我們當然希望成長，但承保利潤才是王者，王者，無論你想使用什麼標籤。

When we look out at the marketplace during the quarter, we took some action as it relates to auto, in particular, and quite frankly, a few other lines related to auto. As a result of that, that slowed the growth. One of the things that at least I was trying to suggest earlier is it would seem as though the issues that we have identified parts of the market are starting to more actively grapple with those in October, and that would provide some encouragement that you will see what I would view as a one-off quarter headwind maybe subsiding somewhat.

當我們在本季觀察市場時，我們採取了一些與汽車相關的行動，特別是坦白說，還有一些與汽車相關的其他產品線。結果，成長放緩。至少我之前試圖建議的一件事是，我們在部分市場中發現的問題似乎開始更積極地解決 10 月份的問題，這將為您帶來一些鼓勵我認為一次性的季度逆風可能會減弱。

So as I suggested earlier, long story short, Ryan, I am not of the view that we are changing the position that the business should be on an annual basis able to grow 10% to 15%. I was merely trying to unpack the quarter a little bit and help you understand what that speed bump is, which I believe is becoming less and less of an issue based on what we saw in October.

因此，正如我之前所建議的，長話短說，Ryan，我不認為我們正在改變業務每年應增長 10% 至 15% 的立場。我只是想稍微解開這個季度的情況，幫助您了解減速帶是什麼，我相信根據我們 10 月份的情況，這已經不再是一個問題了。

Got it. Then just a follow-up, just a couple of quick ones on cat. First of all, I'd be curious what your loss was from Helene. And then second of all, I know you don't want to give a number for Milton. But if I look back to the Ian quarter a couple of years ago, about $100 million of cats. Can you say directionally like could it be that big again given the growth or probably from a [dollar] standpoint (multiple speakers)

知道了。然後是一個後續行動，只是一些關於貓的快速行動。首先，我很好奇你從海倫那裡損失了什麼。其次，我知道你不想給米爾頓的數字。但如果我回顧幾年前的伊恩季度，大約價值 1 億美元的貓。你能否從方向上說，考慮到成長或可能從[美元]的角度來看，它會再次變得那麼大嗎？（多個發言者）

For Helene, I think you should assume about half of it, give or take, was Helene related. Then there were some other cat activity, as Rich referenced, though Helene obviously got all the attention. There were some other losses going on.

對於海倫來說，我認為你應該假設其中大約一半，無論是給予還是接受，都與海倫有關。然後還有一些其他的貓活動，正如里奇所提到的，儘管海倫顯然吸引了所有的注意力。還有一些其他損失正在發生。

Switching over to Milton. I think it is premature for us or for that to really give you a specific number. But as I think whatever the outcome would be, it will be sitting within what you would expect from this organization as far as the size of the loss. And as you've heard from Rich, you've heard from my boss, you've heard from me, we pay very close attention to the topic of volatility, whether it be on the underwriting side or the investment side.

切換到米爾頓。我認為現在給我們具體數字還為時過早。但我認為無論結果是什麼，就損失的規模而言，它都將在你對這個組織的期望之內。正如你從里奇那裡聽到的，你從我老闆那裡聽到的，你從我那裡聽到的，我們非常密切地關注波動性的話題，無論是在承保方面還是在投資方面。

So that's probably about as much color as I can give you on Milton, but I don't think that there's something that's going to come out of that that's going to make anyone pause severely.

所以這可能是我能給你的關於米爾頓的最多的顏色了，但我不認為從中產生的東西會讓任何人嚴重停頓。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

So I wanted to ask you a question about capital. You guys have been growing a little bit less as you're doing some work on some different lines. And externally, it's always hard to sort of judge how much dry powder a company may have in capacity to sort of lean in opportunities as they arise, you have. And so I would just be interested, how do you think about that?

所以我想問你一個關於資本的問題。當你們在一些不同的領域做一些工作時，你們的成長速度有點慢。從外部來看，很難判斷一家公司有多少能力在機會出現時抓住機會。所以我只是感興趣，你對此有何看法？

And then maybe if you could just refresh us on sort of pecking order at this point with pricing getting better and some good signs but not putting it into growth as much right now. How do you approach share buybacks and special dividends and so forth?

然後也許你可以讓我們重新了解此時的排序順序，定價變得更好，有一些好的跡象，但現在不要把它投入那麼多的增長。您如何處理股票回購和特別股利等？

So from our perspective, the company has a comfortable surplus of capital plus. And again, anyone who has a real curiosity can go through the painstaking experience of perhaps taking the S&P model and taking our data and running it through. And you will get a large surplus or excess of capital, which is there to allow us to be opportunistic.

因此，從我們的角度來看，該公司擁有充足的資本盈餘。再說一遍，任何真正有好奇心的人都可以經歷艱苦的經歷，也許採用標準普爾模型並獲取我們的數​​據並運行它。你會得到大量的盈餘或過剩的資本，這讓我們可以投機取巧。

Arguably, we have more capital than even one would need to maintain that position. And as we see opportunities, we will be returning that to those that belongs to, specifically our shareholders. So long story short, we have an excess of capital in the company at this stage is generating capital more quickly than we can utilize it. So it's a reasonable assumption that we will continue to opportunistically look for ways to return the capital to shareholders while still maintaining a comfortable balance plus.

可以說，我們擁有的資本甚至超過了維持這個地位所需的資本。當我們看到機會時，我們會將其回饋給那些屬於我們的人，特別是我們的股東。長話短說，現階段我們公司的資本過剩，產生資本的速度超過了我們利用資本的速度。因此，我們可以合理地假設，我們將繼續機會主義地尋找將資本返還給股東的方法，同時仍保持適度的平衡。

As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about reserves. I mean, it's no secret that some external folks struggle with looking at the disclosures on more recent accident years and myself included in that. And it's hard from the outside.

作為後續行動，我想詢問儲備金的情況。我的意思是，一些外部人士很難查看最近幾年發生的事故的披露情況，這已經不是什麼秘密了，我自己也包括在內。而且從外面看很難。

So I wanted to ask you, like what are the some of the nuances to it? What are some of the things when you all look at the more recent accident years? And maybe it's an update on the paid loss ratios you're seeing, I don't know. But what are some of the things that give you more confidence than I've had?

所以我想問你，其中有哪些細微差別？當你們回顧最近幾年的事故時，會發現哪些事情？我不知道，也許這是您所看到的有償損失率的更新。但哪些事情讓你比我更有信心呢？

Well, again, I'm not sure I fully understand all the reservations you or others have, but I would suggest that it's really a couple of things. We've talked about the paid loss ratio in the past, and we're happy to pick up that conversation anytime anyone wishes to.

好吧，再說一次，我不確定我是否完全理解您或其他人的所有保留意見，但我建議這實際上是兩件事。我們過去曾討論過有償損失率，我們很樂意在任何人願意的時候繼續討論。

In addition to that, we've talked about the strength of our IBNR compared to total reserves as well as the strength of our IBNR relative to case, and you can see that trend. And then in addition to that, I think on the last call or two, we talked about our initial IBNR relative to our earned premium, which we brought back to people's attention because I think there were some question with the other metrics we were putting forth.

除此之外，我們還討論了 IBNR 相對於總準備金的強度以及 IBNR 相對於案例的強度，您可以看到這一趨勢。除此之外，我認為在最後一兩次電話中，我們討論了相對於我們賺取的保費的初始IBNR，我們重新引起了人們的注意，因為我認為我們提出的其他指標存在一些問題。

Well, how is that impacted by the fact that the business is growing? So that's why we try to draw people's attention to the initial IBNR relative to earned, which should take into account growth.

那麼，業務成長對這一點有何影響？因此，這就是為什麼我們試圖引起人們對相對於收入的初始IBNR的關注，這應該考慮到成長。

In addition to that, I think that there are a lot of folks that before they reach conclusions, they need to unpack our mix of business with greater granularity. And there are some people that have offered a view on the more recent years and how we've thought about those reserves without having a full appreciation for in some cases where we're using a claim’s made form as opposed to an incurrence form or amongst other mixes of business.

除此之外，我認為很多人在得出結論之前，需要更詳細地分析我們的業務組合。有些人對最近幾年的情況以及我們如何看待這些準備金提出了看法，但沒有充分理解在某些情況下我們使用索賠形式而不是發生費用的情況形式或其他業務組合。

So we look at our loss reserves very regularly. Every quarter, we look at it at a very granular level, by operating business, by product line. And we look at the aggregate, we look at it in between the two. And from our perspective, ultimately, we respect the fact that everyone is entitled to their opinion. At the same time, we're doing the best we can to try and help people understand, but there's also a reality and it's going to be hard for us to prove it other than through the passage of time.

因此，我們非常定期地查看我們的損失準備金。每個季度，我們都會依照營運業務、產品線進行非常細緻的審視。我們著眼於總體，我們著眼於兩者之間。從我們的角度來看，最終我們尊重每個人都有權利表達自己意見的事實。同時，我們正在盡最大努力幫助人們理解，但現實也是如此，除了透過時間的流逝，我們很難證明這一點。

I think the last point that I would raise as it relates to the topic of reserves, I think the world oftentimes paints with a very broad brush. And when they see other market participants having to grapple with some challenging circumstances, they look at the product line, particularly when it's casualty or liability exposure.

我認為我要提出的最後一點與儲備主題有關，我認為世界經常用非常廣泛的畫筆來描繪。當他們看到其他市場參與者必須應對一些具有挑戰性的情況時，他們會關注產品線，特別是在傷亡或責任風險方面。

And then they'll extrapolate, and they'll say, well, this company over here had problems with this product line let's go out and look at who else would potentially have that exposure, and then they'll make this leap that that is going to be an issue for everyone. And I think that that can be a very slippery slope and would encourage people to invest the additional time and perhaps use a finer brush in recognizing that there is a greater distinction than perhaps they appreciate at base value.

然後他們會進行推斷，他們會說，好吧，這家公司的產品線存在問題，讓我們出去看看還有誰可能擁有這種曝光度，然後他們就會實現這一飛躍，那就是將成為每個人的問題。我認為這可能是一個非常滑坡，並且會鼓勵人們投入額外的時間，並且可能會使用更精細的刷子來認識到存在比他們所理解的基本價值更大的區別。

Brian Meredith, UBS Financial.

布萊恩‧梅瑞迪斯 (Brian Meredith)，瑞銀金融集團。

Two questions for you. First one, Rich, Rob, you talked about some of these businesses that are kind of new and incubating right now, but should help the expense ratio as they come online and you put them into your results. Is there any way you can give us some quantification about how much premium is sitting in these businesses and what benefit they could potentially have from a premium perspective looking over the next 12 months?

有兩個問題問你。第一個，Rich，Rob，你們談到了其中一些業務，這些業務目前是新的和正在孵化的，但當它們上線時，應該有助於提高費用率，並將它們納入結果中。您是否可以透過任何方式向我們提供一些量化信息，了解這些企業的溢價有多少，以及從溢價的角度來看，未來 12 個月它們可能獲得哪些收益？

Rich, I don't know if you want to speak to that. I mean it would be back of the envelope. Brian, we can sort of speak now or if you want something more specific, you're welcome to give us a call. Rich, what was your comment? Go on.

Rich，我不知道你是否願意談談這個問題。我的意思是它會在信封的背面。布萊恩，我們現在可以談談，或者如果您想要更具體的訊息，歡迎您給我們打電話。里奇，你有何評論？繼續。

There's four operating units that we've moved over from, I'll say, our corporate expense category into our underwriting expense category in the first quarter, and round numbers, $25-plus million in net written premium in the quarter.

我想說的是，我們在第一季將四個營運部門從公司費用類別轉移到了承保費用類別，而本季的淨承保保費約為 25 多萬美元。

So that was the benefit in the quarter. Got you.

這就是本季的收益。明白你了。

That's the premium that they contributed to the quarter. But I think maybe picking up on the point in taking it slightly further, those businesses by and large are very much in the early stages of scaling, Brian. So as they scale, you will see them become less dilutive to the expense ratio and hopefully, sooner rather than later neutral. And perhaps at some point, it will become accretive.

這是他們為本季貢獻的溢價。但我認為，也許可以稍微進一步推進一下，這些企業總體上還處於擴展的早期階段，布萊恩。因此，隨著它們的規模擴大，您會看到它們對費用比率的稀釋程度降低，並且希望儘早而不是稍後保持中立。也許在某個時候，它會變得增值。

And then my second question, I think you may have talked about this in previous calls, but your investment funds, they've been -- for the last, I would say, at least 18 months, trending below what your historical returns on those funds have been over time. Is that something we should expect going forward lower returns there? Or is there something unusual going on right now? Should that snap back here at some point?

然後是我的第二個問題，我想您可能在之前的電話會議中談到過這一點，但是您的投資基金，我想說，在過去至少18 個月裡，它們的趨勢低於您的歷史報酬率資金已經超過時間。我們應該期待那裡的回報率下降嗎？或者現在有什麼不尋常的事情發生嗎？是否應該在某個時候回到這裡？

I think that we're going to -- these we book on a quarterly lag and actually, it's at times, surprising to me how long it takes us to get the visibility. But I think the number in the short run that I would encourage you to consider is probably $10 million a quarter. And hopefully, over time, you're going to see that make its way back towards $20 million a quarter.

我認為我們將按季度滯後預訂這些內容，實際上，有時令我驚訝的是我們需要多長時間才能獲得可見性。但我認為我鼓勵您考慮的短期數字可能是每季 1000 萬美元。希望隨著時間的推移，您會看到這一數字回升至每季 2000 萬美元。

But in the short run, I would encourage [get a pencil] in $10 million. But again, Brian, waving my arms trying to offer all the qualifications, we believe in the returns over time, but in the short run, it can be lumpy, as you know.

但從短期來看，我會鼓勵 [拿一支鉛筆] 1000 萬美元。但是布萊恩，再次揮舞著我的手臂試圖提供所有資格，我們相信隨著時間的推移會產生回報，但從短期來看，它可能會很不穩定，如你所知。

We have no further questions in our queue at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Rob Berkley for closing comments.

目前我們的隊列中沒有其他問題。現在我將把會議轉回羅伯·伯克利（Rob Berkley）進行總結評論。

Yeah. So before we say good bye, actually, I don't have anything to add at this time, but I think our Chairman may have a few thoughts.

是的。所以在我們說再見之前，其實我現在沒有什麼要補充的，但我想我們的主席可能有一些想法。

I would just like to add one comment that went along with the investment income question and that is our goal is to take advantage of the changing shape of the yield curve and move the duration of our portfolio out. On the other hand, if you look at the level of leverage in the world, there's not a rush to do that.

我只想補充一條與投資收益問題相關的評論，那就是我們的目標是利用殖利率曲線形狀的變化，並將我們投資組合的久期移出。另一方面，如果你看看世界上的槓桿水平，你會發現並不急於這樣做。

At the same time, we have no interest at all, as Rob said, of lowering the quality, if anything, the kinds of things we bought in the past quarter have been probably average of AA, not AA-. It's an opportunistic strategy that's geared to the view that we don't think rates are going to go down a lot, especially on the longer side. And therefore, we can continue to invest.

同時，正如 Rob 所說，我們完全沒有興趣降低質量，如果有的話，我們在過去一個季度購買的東西可能是 AA 平均水平，而不是 AA-。這是一種機會主義策略，適合這樣的觀點：我們認為利率不會大幅下降，尤其是從長期來看。因此，我們可以繼續投資。

And it's not only reinvesting the money, but we're going to probably have $4 billion of cash flow. That's a lot of money to invest. So we're quite optimistic about our investment income, let alone our operating profit margins from underwriting. So we continue to see quality and duration improving as the yield concurrently going up.

這不僅是對資金的再投資，而且我們可能會擁有 40 億美元的現金流。這需要投入大量資金。所以我們對我們的投資收入非常樂觀，更不用說我們來自承保的營業利潤率了。因此，隨著產量的提高，我們繼續看到品質和持續時間不斷提高。

Okay. Krista, thank you very much, and thank you to our participants. As suggested earlier, we think the business is well positioned, and we look forward to catching up with you in about 90 days. Thank you. Have a good evening.

好的。克里斯塔，非常感謝你，也感謝我們的參與者。正如之前所建議的，我們認為該業務處於有利位置，我們期待在大約 90 天內與您聯繫。謝謝。祝你晚上愉快。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。