W R Berkley Corp (WRB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to W R Berkley Corporation's fourth-quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. The speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words including without limitation, believes, expects or estimates.

大家好，歡迎參加 W R Berkley Corporation 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。發言人的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。一些前瞻性陳述可以透過前瞻性詞語的使用來識別，包括但不限於相信、預期或估計。

We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans estimates or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved. Please refer to our annual report on form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results.

我們提醒您，此類前瞻性陳述不應被視為我們的陳述，即我們所設想的未來計劃、估計或預期實際上將會實現。請參閱我們截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，以了解我們經營的業務環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素。

W R Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter (technical difficulty) Berkeley. Please go ahead, sir.

W R Berkley 公司不承擔任何義務，並明確否認有任何更新或改變（技術難度） Berkeley 的義務。先生，請繼續。

Lisa, thank you very much and good afternoon all and let me echo Lisa's welcome to our fourth-quarter call. So as in the past, we have Bill Berkley, Executive Chairman joining on this end along with Rich Baio, Chief Financial Officer. And we're going to follow our typical agenda where shortly I'm going hand it over to Rich, he's going to walk us through some highlights. I'm going to then follow up with a few quick comments on my end and then we'll be very happy to take the conversation in any direction that participants wish to take in.

麗莎，非常感謝，大家下午好，讓我附和麗莎對我們第四季電話會議的歡迎。因此，和過去一樣，我們有執行董事長 Bill Berkley 和財務長 Rich Baio 加入這一行列。我們將按照我們的典型議程進行，很快我將把它交給 Rich，他將向我們介紹一些亮點。然後我將就我個人的一些簡短評論進行跟進，然後我們將非常樂意按照參與者希望的任何方向進行對話。

Before I do hand it over to Rich, just a very quick comment really not just on behalf of myself, on behalf of all of my colleagues expressing our concern for all who have been impacted, not just by the recent events in California and these horrific fires, but also we shouldn't forget about the many people that were terribly impacted during the 2024 year as a result of hurricanes and other events.

在將發言權交給Rich 之前，我只想簡短地發表一下意見，這不僅代表我自己，也代表我所有的同事，表達我們對所有受到影響的人的關心，不僅僅是最近在加州發生的事件和這些可怕的火災，但我們也不應忘記 2024 年因颶風和其他事件而受到嚴重影響的許多人。

From our perspective, it is certainly a moment for the industry to demonstrate its value to society. I know that my colleagues and I are very focused on ensuring that we as an organization do what we're supposed to do to live up to our responsibilities and certainly our hope that our peers and other organizations will be doing the same.

從我們的角度來看，這無疑是該行業向社會展示其價值的時刻。我知道我和我的同事都非常注重確保我們作為一個組織做我們應該做的事情，履行我們的責任，我們當然希望我們的同儕和其他組織也能這樣做。

So with that, I will hand it over to Rich. Rich if you want to run us through the highlights and then we'll take it from there.

因此，我將把它交給 Rich。Rich，如果你想向我們介紹亮點，然後我們從那裡開始。

Great thanks, Rob. Appreciate it. Good evening, everyone. The 2024 full-year closed out with record top line and bottom line results yielding return on equity of 23.6% in operating return on equity of 22.4%. The fourth quarter record operating earnings increased 15.5% to $453 million or $1.13 per share with an operating return on equity of 24.3%. Net income represented our second-best quarter increasing 45% to $576 million or $1.44 per share with return on equity of 30.9%.

非常感謝，羅布。非常感謝。大家晚上好。2024 年全年業績創下紀錄，營收和淨利分別為 23.6% 和 22.4%，淨資產回報率為 23.6%。第四季創紀錄的營業利潤成長 15.5% 至 4.53 億美元，即每股 1.13 美元，營業股本回報率為 24.3%。淨收入是我們第二好的季度，成長 45% 至 5.76 億美元或每股 1.44 美元，股本回報率為 30.9%。

The key drivers behind the quarter were strong underwriting results combined with the continuation of growth in our core investment portfolio. Starting with underwriting performance, our current accident year combined ratio before cat losses of 2.6 loss ratio points was 87.7% consistent with the full year 2024.

本季的主要驅動因素是強勁的承保業績和核心投資組合的持續成長。從承保業績開始，我們目前事故年度的綜合賠付率（扣除巨災損失前）為 2.6 個損失率點，與 2024 年全年的賠付率一致，為 87.7%。

The calendar combined ratio was 90.2% resulting in $294 million of underwriting income, bringing the full year 2024 to 90.3% and a record underwriting income of more than $1.1 billion. The prior development was favorable (technical difficulty) by $1.6 million in the quarter. Drilling down for (technical difficulty) further into the component parts, the current accident year loss ratio ex CATs was 59.2% which ticked up slightly from the prior year due to business mix and remains flat to the full year 2024 and 2023.

日曆綜合比率為 90.2%，導致承保收入為 2.94 億美元，使得 2024 年全年達到 90.3%，承保收入創下超過 11 億美元的記錄。本季先前的進展有利（技術難度），增加了 160 萬美元。進一步深入研究（技術難度）各個組成部分，本事故年度扣除巨災保險的損失率為 59.2%，由於業務組合原因，較上年略有上升，並且到 2024 年全年和 2023 年將保持平穩。

CAT loss has increased over the prior year, primarily due to hurricane Milton, driving the increase quarter over quarter of 1.4 loss ratio points. The expense ratio of 28.4% was flat to the prior year quarter, continuing to benefit from record net premiums earned of more than $3 billion and initiatives driving technological and operational efficiencies throughout the business. We believe 2025 will reflect an expense ratio comfortably below 30%.

CAT 損失較上年同期增加，主要原因是颶風米爾頓，導致損失率較上年同期增加 1.4 個百分點。28.4% 的費用率與去年同期持平，繼續受益於創紀錄的超過 30 億美元的淨保費收入以及推動整個業務的技術和營運效率的舉措。我們相信，2025年的費用率將輕鬆低於30%。

The full year 2024 marked another record year on top line. The gross and net premiums written grew 9.6% and 9.3% respectively. In the fourth quarter, the insurance segment's net premiums written increased 9.9% to more than $2.6 billion with growth in all lines of business. The reinsurance and monoline excess segment grew in property and monoline excess with a decrease in casualty due to the competitive pricing environment.

2024 年全年營收再創歷史新高。毛保費和淨保費分別成長9.6%和9.3%。第四季度，保險部門的淨保費收入成長 9.9%，達到 26 億美元以上，所有業務線均成長。由於競爭激烈的定價環境，再保險和單一險種超額部分的財產險和單一險種超額部分有所增長，而傷亡險則有所減少。

Moving on to investments, the core portfolio increased 9.4% to $313 million. We do expect the core portfolio to continue to grow over the fourth quarter 2024 in the foreseeable future due to higher new money rates compared with the roll off book yields and growth in the size of the investment portfolio. Our record operating cash flow from 2024 of almost $3.7 billion followed the year before's operating cash flow of $2.9 billion which was also a record. And has enabled us to invest more while maintaining the high credit quality of AA-.

談到投資，核心投資組合增加 9.4% 至 3.13 億美元。我們確實預計，在可預見的未來，核心投資組合將在 2024 年第四季繼續成長，原因是新資金利率與滾動帳簿收益率相比更高，且投資組合規模有所增長。我們 2024 年的營運現金流創紀錄地達到近 37 億美元，而前一年的營運現金流為 29 億美元，也創下了紀錄。並使我們能夠在保持AA-的高信用品質的同時進行更多投資。

In addition, we've increased our investment duration from 2.4 years to 2.6 years in the quarter. And at the end of 2024 we had cash and cash equivalents of almost $2 billion. Net investment gains were primarily driven by favorable market value movements in common and preferred equity securities. Investments in the energy and certain financial services sectors led to the $163 million unrealized gain.

此外，本季我們將投資期間從 2.4 年增加至 2.6 年。截至 2024 年底，我們的現金和現金等價物接近 20 億美元。淨投資收益主要受普通股和優先股證券市場價值有利變動的推動。對能源和某些金融服務領域的投資帶來了 1.63 億美元的未實現收益。

The effective tax rate of 21% in the quarter benefited from the utilization of some foreign valuation allowances established against operating loss carry forwards and true up adjustments for prior periods. This brings our full year effective tax rate to 22.5% and we expect 2025 will be 23%-plus or minus. As it relates to capital, the stockholder's equity increased 12.6% to $8.4 billion, primarily due to record net income of $1.8 billion partially offset by the return of capital to shareholders of $836 million through dividends and share repurchases.

本季 21% 的有效稅率得益於利用一些針對前期經營虧損結轉和補足調整而設立的外國估值準備金。這使我們的全年有效稅率達到 22.5%，我們預計 2025 年將達到 23% 左右。就資本而言，股東權益成長 12.6% 至 84 億美元，主要由於創紀錄的 18 億美元淨收入，但透過股息和股票回購向股東返還 8.36 億美元資本部分抵消了這一影響。

In the fourth quarter, we paid regular and special dividends of $220 million and repurchased $67 million in shares. Our after-tax unrealized investment loss is $517 million as of year-end 2024, an improvement of $69 million from the prior year. And finally book value per share before repurchases and dividends grew 23.5% for the full year.

第四季度，我們支付了 2.2 億美元的常規和特別股息，並回購了價值 6,700 萬美元的股票。截至 2024 年底，我們的稅後未實現投資損失為 5.17 億美元，比前一年改善了 6,900 萬美元。最後，回購和股息前的每股帳面價值全年增長了 23.5%。

Rob, I will turn it back to you.

羅布，我會把它還給你。

Okay. Rich, thank you very much. Very clear, I'm sure appreciated by all.

好的。里奇，非常感謝你。非常清楚，我相信大家都會感激的。

So before I offer a few thoughts on the marketplace and then on our quarter, just highlighting the obvious at this stage as you've likely had an opportunity to flip through the release and would have heard Rich's comments. 2024 was truly another exceptional year for the organization. And I did -- before we get into the nooks and crannies that we typically do on these calls, I did want to take a moment just to pause and both thank and congratulate my roughly 7,300 colleagues for yet again, a job very well done.

因此，在我對市場和我們本季的情況發表一些想法之前，我只想強調一下現階段顯而易見的事情，因為您可能有機會瀏覽該發布版本，並聽過 Rich 的評論。 2024 年對該組織來說確實是另一個非凡的一年。在我們進入電話會議的常規討論之前，我確實想花一點時間感謝並祝賀我的大約 7,300 名同事，他們又一次出色地完成了工作。

The three of us have the privilege of speaking on behalf of the full team but as a reminder to all, this is a team sport and the outcome is a reflection of the team, not just the folks that happened to be speaking to you on this call today. So again to the team, a thank you and truly congratulations on yet another great performance.

我們三人很榮幸代表整個團隊發言，但我想提醒大家，這是一項團隊運動，比賽結果反映了團隊的成果，而不僅僅是那些碰巧和你談論這件事的人。因此，再次向團隊表示感謝，並由衷祝賀你們又一次出色的表現。

Maybe pivoting over to a couple of thoughts on the marketplace. As far as much of the liability market, it continues to be plagued by social inflation. The combination of an emboldened plaintiff bar along with quite frankly, this jet fuel that they have in their back pocket, otherwise known as litigation funding, continues just to up the game. That having been said, [social] inflation does not apply to all product lines equally. So maybe to give an example or to be more specific while it is certainly prevalent in most places within the liability space, if you look at certain lines of business where claims are more exposed or is more commonplace where there's actually physical injury to someone, you will see a reaction coming out of a jury that tends to be far more inflated.

也許可以轉向對市場的幾點想法。就大部分負債市場而言，其持續受到社會通膨的困擾。原告律師的勇氣和他們口袋裡的後備力量（也就是訴訟資金）結合，讓這場遊戲變得更加激烈。話雖如此，社會通貨膨脹並不同樣適用於所有產品線。因此，也許可以舉個例子，或者更具體地說，雖然這在責任保險領域的大多數地方都很普遍，但如果你看看某些業務線，這些業務線的索賠更容易發生，或者更常見，實際上有人受到了身體傷害，你會看到陪審團的反應往往更加誇張。

By example, the type of awards that are coming out related to auto liability or medmal and the inflation that we are seeing in those types of claims is far more than what we would be seeing in the DNO space or what we would be seeing in the accountant's liability space, just to pick a few to try and articulate the point.

例如，與汽車責任或醫療事故相關的賠償類型以及我們在這些類型的索賠中看到的通貨膨脹率遠高於我們在 DNO 領域或我們在會計責任空間，僅挑選幾個來嘗試闡明這一點。

One of the things that's been both surprising and quite frankly a bit disappointing to me has been how slow or sluggish the reinsurance market has been to respond to social inflation and some of the challenges. It is our suspicion that you are seeing a gradual groundswell that is building and we will see discipline coming to the casualty reinsurance market hopefully over the coming months and years, and that will create an opportunity for our colleagues in the reinsurance space.

令我感到驚訝和坦率地說有點失望的事情之一是再保險市場對社會通膨和一些挑戰的反應如此緩慢或遲緩。我們猜測，您會看到一股逐漸興起的浪潮，希望在未來幾個月和數年內，意外險再保險市場能夠逐漸趨於規範，這將為我們再保險領域的同事創造機會。

But in the meantime, when there is that lack of discipline, we very much applaud our colleagues for the discipline that they are exercising. Pivoting over to the short tail line, specifically property. Certainly, for the moment and we'll have to see what the impact of the California fires is. But for the moment, property insurance, there is still a tailwind but it is slowing. And if you pivot over to the property reinsurance market, and even more so the retro market, it is clear that at [one, one] there was no tailwind to be found in fact, it was quite to the contrary, there was a growing headwind. By example, our property CAT renewal risk adjusted was down 15%-ish and a similar percentage for our retro.

但同時，當出現缺乏紀律的情況時，我們非常讚賞我們的同事所表現出的紀律性。轉向短尾線，特別是財產。當然，就目前而言，我們必須看看加州火災的影響是什麼。但就目前來看，財產險業雖然仍有順風，但成長正在放緩。如果你轉向財產再保險市場，尤其是復古市場，很明顯，在[一，一] 時，沒有發現順風，事實上，恰恰相反，逆風。舉例來說，我們的財產險巨災續保風險調整後下降了 15% 左右，追溯風險調整後也下降了類似百分比。

Moving on to our quarter, I don't have a lot to add. And I guess that the risk of being a little bit repetitive following Rich. The net written premium here was 8%, but going back to a comment earlier and what Rich had unpacked for us a little bit. I think you need to look at that a little more carefully. And the fact of the matter is, if you backed out the casualty reinsurance where we find market conditions to be concerning and we believe that more of a defensive posture is appropriate. If you back that out, we're at 10%.

繼續討論我們的季度，我沒有太多要補充的。我想，重複跟隨 Rich 的做法可能會有點風險。這裡的淨承保保費為 8%，但回到先前的評論以及 Rich 為我們稍微闡釋的內容。我認為你需要更仔細地看一下。事實是，如果您退出意外傷害再保險，我們會發現市場狀況令人擔憂，我們認為採取更多的防禦姿態是合適的。如果你推翻這個假設，我們現在的比例是 10%。

Rate ex workers' comp came in at 7.7% renewal retention ratio. A little bit above 80 which continues to be very consistent with what it's been for at this stage. I don't know how many quarters or for that matter how many years. On the expense front, the [28%] -- Rich talked about us continuing to be a sub 30% for the foreseeable -- Richie, this is a little bit of a heads up, I'm going to ask you to talk about expenses for a moment.

退休工人補償的續保保留率為 7.7%。略高於 80，與現階段的情況保持一致。我不知道有多少季度或幾年。在費用方面，[28%]——Rich 談到我們在可預見的時間內將繼續保持在 30% 以下——Richie，這有點提前通知，我要請你談談暫時的費用。

But if you go back and you look at the journey that we've been on, you know, we've been able to hold the line on expenses through investment in technology along with the utilization of BPO. And if you think about where our expense ratio was pre COVID and where we are today, even with the COVID benefit on expenses having gone away, we continue to be in a very good place.

但如果你回顧我們走過的歷程，你就會知道，我們能夠透過投資技術以及利用 BPO 來控制開支。如果您想想我們在疫情之前的費用率以及現在的費用率，即使疫情期間的費用補貼已經消失，我們仍然處於非常好的狀態。

So I'm going to keep going in a minute, but I'm going to take a pause, catch my breath and Richie, if you want to speak to expenses for a moment, please.

所以我一會兒要繼續，但是我要暫停一下，喘口氣，里奇，如果你想談一下費用問題，請。

So, as Rob alluded to certainly post COVID, we've benefited where our expense ratio has been in the low 20s to mid 20 -- low 28% to 28.5% area. But preceding that going back to 2020 and prior certainly began with the three handle. And if we go back to the decade ago, basically at the 33% and change, so certainly have seen close to a 5 point improvement in the expense ratio over that period of time.

因此，正如 Rob 所提到的，在 COVID 之後，我們受益匪淺，我們的費用率一直處於 20% 出頭到 20% 中段——28% 出頭到 28.5% 的區間。但在此之前，回顧 2020 年及之前，無疑是從這三個手把開始的。如果我們回顧十年前，基本上是33%的變化，那麼在這段時間內費用率肯定提高了近5個百分點。

And I would just add to that one needs to keep in mind our mix of business and a meaningful amount of the business we write as an acquisition cost that is greater due to the fact that we do a fair amount of business in the wholesale market.

我只想補充一點，我們需要記住我們的業務組合，以及我們作為收購成本寫入的相當大一部分業務，由於我們在批發市場做了相當多的業務，所以這一成本更高。

So Rich covered the combined ratio again, a 90.2% given the cat activity in the quarter, not a bad place to come out. Just speaking of that on the topic of CATs, obviously, it's very early to be speculating around California and what it will mean. But I would just remind folks that we are California light when it comes to property. Obviously, one of the areas that has gotten a lot of attention is the personal line space and our efforts known as Berkley One within the private client personal line space, we do not participate in the California market. So hopefully that is helpful.

因此，Rich 再次評估了綜合比率，考慮到本季的巨災活動，比率為 90.2%，這是一個不錯的結果。只是談到 CAT 的話題，顯然現在猜測加州的情況和意義還為時過早。但我只是想提醒大家，在財產問題上，我們是加州的輕視者。顯然，受到廣泛關注的領域之一是個人線路空間，而我們在私人客戶個人線路空間內所做的努力被稱為 Berkley One，但我們不參與加州市場。希望這會有所幫助。

And I think the punch line is while I'm sure we will have some loss activity associated with the fires, I expect that it will not keep us from still delivering a respectable return to our shareholders in Q1 based on everything I can see today.

我認為關鍵在於，雖然我確信我們會因火災而產生一些損失，但根據我今天所看到的一切，我預計這不會阻止我們在第一季為股東帶來可觀的回報。

Switching over to the investments again, Rich covered this, AA- continues to get stronger with every passing day and we're feeling very good about that. Simultaneously, you would note as it flagged the duration. We've talked about this for some number of quarters. When we see the opportunity, we're going to nudge that duration out. We saw an opportunity. So it popped out from 2.4 and change -- at 2.6 in change. And again, we feel no pressure, but when we see the window of opportunity, our colleagues are not going to let that pass by without taking advantage of it.

再次轉到投資話題，Rich 談到了這一點，AA- 每天都在變得越來越強大，我們對此感覺非常好。同時，您會注意到它標記了持續時間。我們已經討論了這個問題好幾個季度了。當我們看到機會時，我們就會延長這個持續時間。我們看到了機會。所以它從 2.4 中脫穎而出，並發生了變化 — — 變化幅度為 2.6。再說了，我們沒有感受到任何壓力，但是當我們看到機會之窗時，我們的同事不會輕易放棄。

I think another data point that really plays into the whole economic model, and I think as we talked about over the past couple of quarters. When we were going through an extended period of time and interest rates, we're reduced or depressed if you will. I think a lot of folks forgot about the component of our economic model that being the investment portfolio and investment income. Obviously, that has been reawaken, everyone can see that, but that story is not fully told at this stage.

我認為另一個數據點確實影響了整個經濟模型，我認為正如我們在過去幾季所討論的那樣。當我們經歷一段較長的時間和利率時，如果你願意的話，我們會感到沮喪或沮喪。我認為很多人忘記了我們的經濟模型的組成部分，即投資組合和投資收益。顯然，這已經被重新喚醒，每個人都能看到這一點，但是這個故事在現階段還沒有完全講完。

So a couple of data points for you. Our domestic book yield for the quarter was approximately 4.6%. Our new money rate today is 5.25%-plus. So as you can see that increase along with the cash flow that Rich talked about for the year of $3.7 billion or $810 million in the quarter, we have a growing portfolio where a new money rate is considerably above the book yield. And I think we all know what that means.

這裡向您提供幾個數據點。本季我們的國內帳面收益率約為 4.6%。我們今天的新貨幣利率是 5.25% 以上。因此，正如您所看到的，隨著 Rich 所說的年度現金流增加 37 億美元或本季 8.1 億美元，我們的投資組合不斷增長，其中新資金利率遠高於帳面收益率。我想我們都知道這意味著什麼。

So long story short, what's the punch line? It's the following, 2025 is a year that we think the table is already set and it's set in a very attractive way. And with every passing day, we're setting the table more and more for 2026. The reality is that our underwriting margin is likely to improve from here over time and certainly at a minimum will not be deteriorating.

長話短說，妙語是什麼？以下是我們認為 2025 年已經定局的一年，而且是以一種非常有吸引力的方式定局。隨著每一天的過去，我們為 2026 年做好了越來越多的準備。事實是，我們的承保利潤率可能會隨著時間的推移而提高，而且至少不會下降。

In addition to that as far as the investment portfolio, the other key component of our economic model, as I mentioned just a moment ago, the investable assets continue to grow at a healthy pace and that new money rate, given our view on where quite frankly government borrowing is going to need to be where inflation is going to be, there will continue to be an opportunity for us to put money to work at a healthy spread above the current book yield. As it is today, we do not see that disappearing overnight.

除此之外，就投資組合而言，正如我剛才提到的那樣，我們經濟模型的另一個關鍵組成部分，可投資資產繼續以健康的速度增長，而新資金利率，考慮到我們對相當一部分資金流入的前景的看法，坦白說，政府借款需要與通貨膨脹保持一致，我們將繼續有機會將資金投入高於當前帳面收益率的健康利差中。正如今天一樣，我們認為這種情況不會在一夜之間消失。

So obviously, people will digest and process2.6 the data any way they like. But the numbers and the information that we shared with you all today, those are statements of fact and quite frankly, you don't need to be particularly insightful to see how the story is likely to unfold, not just over the 25-year, but more and more likely with every passing day '26 and perhaps beyond.

因此顯然人們會以自己喜歡的任何方式消化和處理數據。但我們今天與大家分享的數字和資訊都是事實陳述，坦白說，你不需要特別有洞察力就能看到故事可能如何展開，而不僅僅是 25 年來，但隨著每一天的過去，這種可能性會越來越大。

Okay. That was usual, probably more than I promised. Why don't we pause there and Lisa, if we could go ahead and open it up for Q&A.

好的。這很正常，可能比我承諾的還要多。我們為什麼不在這裡暫停一下？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特 (Alex Scott)。

Hi, good afternoon. First one I had for you all is just how we should think through balancing growth. It sounded like you're not willing to budge on on the margins you're seeing in potential improvement even just given the landscape, I mean, particularly for reinsurance, but even in insurance is what's going on with property.

嗨，下午好。我要向大家提出的第一個問題是，我們該如何思考平衡成長。聽起來你似乎不願意在潛在改善的幅度上做出讓步，即使考慮到目前的情況，特別是再保險的情況，但即使在保險領域，財產保險領域的情況也是如此。

Do you think we're going to go through a period where we have to potentially be lower than where you all would like to be on growth over the medium to long term? And how does that get balanced out with potential capital return and just how we should think about where you run your leverage through periods like that.

您是否認為我們將要經歷這樣一個時期，即我們的經濟成長可能低於您所希望的中長期成長水準？以及如何與潛在的資本回報取得平衡，以及我們應該如何考慮在這樣的時期內如何運用你的槓桿。

Well, A, thank you for the question. And B, my thoughts on it are as follows - We, as an organization, are unapologetic and the fact that we're in business to make good risk-adjusted returns. We will right the business and lean into it when we think the margin is there, and we will have no qualms taking a more defensive posture when we don't think the margin is there. I think we have demonstrated that time and time again.

嗯，A，謝謝你的提問。B，我的想法如下 - 作為一個組織，我們毫無歉意，我們從事的業務就是為了獲得良好的風險調整回報。當我們認為有利潤時，我們就會糾正業務並傾向於此；而當我們認為沒有利潤時，我們也會毫不猶豫地採取更防禦的姿態。我想我們已經一次又一次地證明了這一點。

And you can see that actually, we lay the numbers out for you on slide 7 or page 7, if you will, of our press release. And you can see our casualty reinsurance in the quarter was down more than 15%. That's because of the comments, not only that I shared earlier today, but we have talked about in past quarters and earlier where we just don't think that the market is exercising the discipline and quite frankly, is expecting an appropriate risk-adjusted return. So we will participate where we think it makes sense and not.

您實際上可以看到，我們在新聞稿的第 7 張投影片或第 7 頁上為您列出了這些數字。您可以看到，本季我們的意外險再保險下降了 15% 以上。這是因為我今天早些時候發表的評論，以及我們在過去幾個季度和更早時候討論過的評論，我們認為市場並沒有嚴格遵守紀律，坦率地說，並沒有期待適當的風險調整回報。因此，我們會參與我們認為有意義的事情，而不會參與我們認為沒有意義的事情。

So when you put that all together, Alex, we can only control what we can control. We can't control the market. We can control our behavior. We are seeing opportunities in much of the market today. We think we have great colleagues with great expertise, they understand how to separate the wheat from the chaff, and I think we're in a pretty good place.

所以，亞歷克斯，當你把這一切放在一起時，我們只能控制我們所能控制的事情。我們無法控制市場。我們可以控制自己的行為。當今，我們在許多市場中都看到了機會。我們認為我們擁有非常優秀的同事，他們擁有豐富的專業知識，他們知道如何去偽存真，我認為我們處於一個相當不錯的位置。

Again, if you look at some of the growth in the insurance front, and you can see the opportunity that while slowing still exists even on the property reinsurance front, but try and take advantage of that. But when the day is all done, we think that there is still a lot of opportunity out there and we're looking to capitalize on it.

同樣，如果你看一下保險方面的一些增長，你會發現，即使在財產再保險方面，儘管增長放緩，但仍存在機會，但要嘗試利用這一點。但當這一天結束時，我們認為仍有許多機會，我們希望利用它。

And our comment around opportunity to grow. Nobody knows for sure until you're there. But at this stage, the fact is we have a lot of -- we have businesses that when you put it all together, are growing at high single digit or more and there are parts of our business, quite frankly, that are growing at a much higher rate.

我們對成長機會的評論。除非你親臨現場，否則沒人能確切知道。但在這個階段，事實上，我們有很多業務，如果你把它們放在一起，它們的成長速度都很高，甚至更高，坦白說，我們業務的某些部分的成長速度更高的比率。

So again, hopefully, that was a lot of babble on my part. But if you look at slide 7, I think page 7 of the release, it demonstrates we grow where the margin is. And so what does that mean? We think the business should be able to continue to grow at a healthy rate in excess of trend.

所以再次希望，這只是我的胡言亂語。但如果你看第 7 張投影片，我想這是新聞稿的第 7 頁，它顯示了我們在利潤率方面取得的成長。那麼這意味著什麼？我們認為業務應該能夠繼續以高於趨勢的健康速度成長。

Got it. That's all very helpful. Maybe focusing a little more on the primary side. I guess we heard from one of the other smaller specialty companies that property, they're seeing a lot of competition. I think they flagged MGAs, I think others flagged the Lloyd's market. How is price adequacy in property within the insurance business? And is that still a place that you can grow to your targeted profitability?

知道了。這一切都非常有幫助。或許應該多關注主要方面。我想我們從另一家規模較小的專業公司那裡聽說，他們面臨著很多競爭。我認為他們標記了 MGAs，我認為其他人標記了勞合社市場。保險業務中的財產險價格適度如何？那裡仍然是您可以實現目標盈利的地方嗎？

We think that there is still an opportunity, generally speaking, in property. That having been said, it's reasonably evident that there is a bit more competition today than there was yesterday in certain pockets. We'll have to see what the impact is of the California fires, whether that changes the appetite of some.

我們認為，整體而言，房地產領域仍有機會。話雖如此，有理由相信，今天某些領域的競爭比昨天要激烈一些。我們必須看看加州大火的影響是什麼，看看它是否會改變一些人的胃口。

But yes, as I tried to articulate earlier, I think for property insurance, there is still a tailwind, but it is clearly diminished from what it was yesterday. It is -- but it has not become a headwind or reverting to the extent that the reinsurance market has on the property front.

但是的，正如我之前試圖表達的那樣，我認為對於財產保險來說，仍然有順風，但與昨天相比明顯減弱。確實如此——但它並沒有像再保險市場在房地產方面那樣成為阻力或倒退。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

Good afternoon. Hi, thanks. Good evening. My first question, you guys in the last couple of calls, right, you have been willing to kind of provide the reserve breakdown right by segment? I was hoping you could give us tonight and then just provide any color you might have seen within insurance or reinsurance that stands out with short or long tail reserves in the quarter?

午安.嗨，謝謝。晚安.我的第一個問題是，在最近的幾次通話中，你們是否願意按部分提供儲備明細？我希望您今晚能給我們一些信息，然後提供您在保險或再保險領域可能看到的任何信息，這些信息在本季度以短尾或長尾準備金的形式脫穎而出？

I don't have it in front of me. I think what if you wouldn't mind, Rich can probably give that to you Karen, if you wouldn't mind us circling up after the call because we wouldn't want to give you anything, but the accurate information. As far as where are the challenges, I think as we've talked about in past calls, we're paying close attention to auto liability, and we're paying close attention to access particular and umbrella and particularly how auto liability feeds into that.

我面前沒有它。我想如果您不介意的話，Rich 可以把它給你，Karen，如果你不介意我們在通話結束後再聯繫你的話，因為我們不想給你任何東西，只想給你準確的信息。至於挑戰在哪裡，我想正如我們在過去的電話會議中談到的那樣，我們密切關注汽車責任，我們密切關注獲取特定和綜合保險，特別是汽車責任如何融入其中。

Going the other way, Workers' compensation continues to be a guy, and we have some other lines where it continues to be very encouraging as well. I think the actions that we have taken regarding auto, both in the priority and the outlet applies to the excess are well entrenched at this stage. So I would never go so far to declare victory prematurely, but I think we're on the right path.

另一方面，工人賠償繼續是一個重點，我們還有其他一些線路也繼續非常令人鼓舞。我認為我們在汽車方面採取的行動，無論是在優先事項還是在出口方面，都適用於過剩問​​題，在現階段已經根深蒂固。所以我絕不會過早宣布勝利，但我認為我們走在正確的道路上。

Thanks and it sounds like from your comments, right, you guys are pretty cautious right on the casualty reinsurance market. So as you think about how that market, I guess, could play out in '25 as well as, right other markets, be that other long or short tail lines. Do you think you get back, Rob, to 10% to 15%, I know, right, it's less top line to grow you don't want to grow in areas right that aren't offering good opportunities. How do you see growth from a top line perspective playing out in 2025?

謝謝，從你們的評論來看，你們對意外再保險市場非常謹慎。所以當你思考這個市場在 25 年會如何發展時，我猜想它也會像其他市場一樣發展，無論是其他長尾線還是短尾線。羅布，你認為你能回到 10% 到 15% 的水平嗎？從營收角度來看，您如何看待 2025 年的成長？

So this is the part where I guess you see if I take debate or not. And I guess the answer is this. I don't know with any greater certainty than anyone else what 2025 is going to hold for us. I believe that there should be an opportunity for this organization for the 2025 year to grow in double it. Is it possible, that could prove to be 9%?

所以我想這是您可以看到我是否參加辯論的部分。我想答案是這樣的。我和其他人一樣，都不大清楚 2025 年會為我們帶來什麼。我相信，到2025年，這個組織應該有機會達到兩倍的成長。有可能嗎？

Yes, it is. Is it possible that, that could prove to be 16%? Yes, it is. But do I think that we should be able to grow our exposure in something in excess of the rate that we are achieving? Yes, I do.

是的。那有可能達到 16% 嗎？是的。但我是否認為，我們應該能夠以超過我們現在所實現的速度來增加我們的曝光率？是的，我願意。

And given that we're getting more than 7 points of rate I think that, that should help us get to what I'm pointing you in the direction of.

鑑於我們獲得的利率已超過 7 個百分點，我認為這應該有助於我們實現我所指引的方向。

And then one last one. Was there anything it looked like the insurance underlying loss ratio maybe picked up a little bit in the quarter from where it had been running. Was there anything.

還有最後一個。本季保險基礎損失率是否看起來比之前略有上升？有什麼事嗎。

When it was about 0.5 point or so. And I would caution you not to read too deeply into it because Rich and I did spend some time on this, and it really just boiled down to mix of business.

當它約為0.5點左右時。我要提醒你不要對此進行深入思考，因為 Rich 和我確實在這件事上花了一些時間，而它實際上只是業務混合的問題。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

道明證券 (TD Securities) 的安德魯‧克利格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)。

Thanks a lot. Good evening. Looking at the other liability net written premium, it was up a solid 9.5%. And if I remember correctly, Rob, you had expressed a fair amount of optimism around pricing in the insurance casualty line in October, and you felt pretty good that it might see some pickup. Could you kind of elaborate on where that is now in January?

多謝。晚安.從其他責任淨承保保費來看，它大幅上漲了 9.5%。如果我沒記錯的話，羅布，你對 10 月份保險意外險的定價表示了相當樂觀的態度，並且你感覺價格可能會有所回升。能否詳細說明一下現在一月的情況？

So, I've not seen our January price monitor. So I'm a little bit on my heels. That having been said, based on the anecdotal information that I have heard from colleagues I think that the momentum continues to be very strong around rate achieved on much of the liability and other liability included in that.

所以，我沒有看到我們一月的價格監測。所以我有點緊張。話雖如此，根據我從同事那裡聽到的傳聞訊息，我認為，在大部分負債以及其中包含的其他負債的利率方面，勢頭仍然非常強勁。

Okay. So what Rob, what's the disconnect between your concerns about the reinsurance casualty pricing? How do you reconcile the reinsurance pricing coming off. And I think you said down 15%?

好的。那麼 Rob，您對再保險意外險定價的擔憂與什麼不一致呢？您如何協調即將取消的再保險定價？我認為您說的是下降了 15%？

Our premium, just to be clear, sorry, our premium was down about just shy of 15.5% for our casualty reinsurance in the quarter.

需要明確的是，抱歉，本季我們的意外險再保險保費下降了約 15.5%。

For casualty. And yet you seem to like it on the primary level. Could you maybe reconcile the two and why you're far less favorably disposed on reinsurance casualty?

為了傷亡。但你似乎在初級階段就喜歡它。您能否調和這兩者，以及為什麼您對再保險意外險的態度不那麼有利？

Because I think the casualty reinsurance market needs more discipline and they need to charge more, whether that be through adjusting ceding commissions or in an XOL basis getting at it a different way. And I think there's a disconnect. no different than if you go back a few years ago before the reinsurance market woke up, there was a disconnect between property, primary and property reinsurance.

因為我認為意外傷害再保險市場需要更多的紀律，他們需要收取更多的費用，無論是透過調整轉讓佣金還是以 XOL 為基礎以不同的方式實現。我認為其中存在脫節。與幾年前再保險市場復甦之前的情況沒有什麼不同，當時財產險、主要保險和財產再保險之間存在著脫節。

Interesting. And then maybe one last quick one. International, not a lot of color on that, but kind of curious because your insurance officer and Asia, Latin America, UK, Europe. Any color that you could share with us on what's going on abroad, and how you're seeing those markets for your business?

有趣的。然後也許還有最後一個快速的。國際，這方面沒有太多細節，但有點好奇，因為您的保險官和亞洲、拉丁美洲、英國、歐洲。您能否與我們分享國外的情況以及您如何看待這些市場對您業務的影響？

Well, obviously, we participate in a lot of different markets and no one is a mirror image of another, including the market conditions. But what I would tell you is this, that we have some really exceptional people running those businesses, and they are amongst some of our highest margin businesses. And going back in time, that hasn't always been the case across the board.

嗯，顯然，我們參與了許多不同的市場，沒有一個市場是另一個市場的鏡像，包括市場狀況。但我想告訴你們的是，我們有一些非常優秀的人才在管理這些業務，而且它們是我們利潤最高的業務之一。回顧歷史，情況並不總是如此。

But some of our best risk-adjusted returns are coming from our -- are being generated by our colleagues outside of the United States. I think there are certainly parts of the international effort where the market is particularly competitive and the opportunity to grow has become more challenging.

但我們的一些最佳風險調整回報是來自美國以外的同事所創造的。我認為，在國際努力中，有些領域的市場競爭特別激烈，成長機會也變得更具挑戰性。

Nevertheless, our colleagues and their ability to navigate through those competitive environments. I think we have a great deal of confidence in.

儘管如此，我們的同事和他們在這些競爭環境中導航的能力。我認為我們對此非常有信心。

So I've not seen our January price monitor. So I'm a little bit on my heels that having been said based on the anecdotal information that I have heard from colleagues, I think that the momentum continues to be very strong around rate achieved on much of the liability and other liability included in that.

所以我沒有看到我們一月的價格監測。因此，根據我從同事那裡聽到的傳聞，我有點緊張，我認為，在實現大部分負債和其他負債的利率方面，勢頭仍然非常強勁。

Yeah. Well, obviously, we participate in a lot of different markets and no one is a mere image of another, including the market conditions. But what I would tell you is this, that we have some really exceptional people running those businesses and they are amongst some of our highest margin businesses and going back in time, that hasn't always been the case across the board, but some of our best risk adjusted returns are coming from our are being generated by our colleagues outside of the United States.

是的。嗯，顯然，我們參與了許多不同的市場，沒有一個市場只是另一個市場的鏡像，包括市場狀況。但我想說的是，我們有一些非常出色的人來管理這些業務，它們是我們利潤最高的業務之一，回顧歷史，情況並不總是如此，但其中一些我們最好的風險調整回報是由我們美國以外的同事創造的。

I think there are certainly parts of the international effort where the market is particularly competitive and the opportunity to grow has become more challenging. Nevertheless, our colleagues and their ability to navigate through those competitive environments. I think we have a great deal of confidence in.

我認為，在國際努力中，有些領域的市場競爭特別激烈，成長機會也變得更具挑戰性。儘管如此，我們的同事和他們在這些競爭環境中導航的能力。我認為我們對此非常有信心。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities

Truist Securities 的馬克休斯

Yeah, thank you. Good. Afternoon. Hi, Mark, good afternoon. Rob, any comments on the mix between E&S and admitted. Is there still strong movement into E&S? How do you see that now?

是的，謝謝。好的。下午。你好，馬克，下午好。羅布，對於 E&S 和承認之間的混合有什麼評論嗎？E&S 領域是否仍存在強勁動向？您現在怎麼看待這個問題？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Mark. And maybe if you don't mind taking half a step back, the submission flow coming into the E&S marketplace continues to be robust we'll have to see again what the impact of the California fires is, but we're probably seeing a little less momentum on the property side and more momentum on the casualty side.

是的。謝謝你的提問，馬克。也許如果你不介意退後一步，進入 E&S 市場的提交流量繼續保持強勁，我們將不得不再次看看加州火災的影響是什麼，但我們可能會看到一點財產險方面的動能較小，而傷亡險方面的動能較大。

As far as the submission flow regarding E&S. I would tell you there are pockets of professional a little bit more competitive on the E&S front. But that having been said, overall, our E&S business is growing considerably faster than our admitted business today.

就 E&S 的提交流程而言。我想告訴你，在 E&S 方面，有一些專業人士的競爭力更強一些。但話雖如此，總體而言，我們的 E&S 業務的成長速度遠遠快於我們目前承認的業務。

And then you expressed a lot of confidence that the underwriting profitability wouldn't be deteriorating or would be likely improving and definitely not deteriorating. Pricing is still up nicely. What should we think about the inflation and loss costs? Are you seeing a step down in loss inflation? I know you've talked about the social inflation in those drivers, but it seems like you have a little more optimism about the spread on a go-forward basis?

然後您表示非常有信心承保盈利能力不會惡化或可能會改善，絕對不會惡化。價格仍然上漲。我們應該如何考慮通貨膨脹和損失成本？您是否看到損失膨脹有所下降？我知道您已經談到了社會通膨等驅動因素，但您似乎對未來的利差更樂觀？

I think we've been getting a lot of rate for a long time at this stage. In addition to that, I think we have growing visibility and confidence in the underwriting actions that have already been taken and continue to be applied. And when you put all of that together, I think we are cautiously optimistic as to what that likely for for the results over time. I think the reality is when we look at our mix of business and we look at the rate that we have achieved and that we continue to achieve. And if you look at the aggregate 7.7% or so and we look at how we think about trend at a pretty granular level.

我認為我們目前已經獲得很高的利率很長一段時間了。除此之外，我認為我們對已經採取並繼續實施的核保行動的了解和信心正在不斷增強。當把所有這些因素綜合起來時，我認為我們對長期結果持謹慎樂觀的態度。我認為現實情況是，當我們審視我們的業務組合併觀察我們已經實現的速度以及我們將繼續實現的速度時。如果您看一下總量 7.7% 左右，我們會看看我們如何在相當細微的層面上看待趨勢。

We think we're in a good place. So again, none of us know for sure, particularly with some of the longer tail lines other than through the passage of time. but there's some encouraging data that we are seeing.

我們認為我們處在一個好的狀態。所以，我們誰也不知道確切答案，特別是對於一些較長的尾線，除非隨著時間的推移。但我們看到了一些令人鼓舞的數據。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks for the question. Have a good night.

謝謝你的提問。祝你晚安。

EMO Capital Markets, Mike Zaremski.

EMO 資本市場，Mike Zaremski。

Hi, Mike. Good evening.

你好，麥克。晚安.

Hey, Good evening.

嘿，晚上好。

First question. Coming back to I'm going to assume we don't know that you don't, you don't have the answer to the reserve changes this quarter, but based on kind of the year-to-date nine months, it looks like workers' comp was definitely a big good guy in terms of reserve releases. So I'm just trying to kind of curious. One of the tough question, tougher questions we get is, why is rob bearish on kind of workers' comp if profitxs are are so good and it still continues to to release a lot of reserves. So just kind of curious if you're your views on camp or are improving potentially or just kind of talking through the dynamics there.

第一個問題。回到這個問題，我假設我們不知道你不知道本季儲備變化的答案，但根據今年迄今的九個月的情況，看起來就像工人補償在儲備金釋放方面絕對是一個大好事。所以我只是想表達一點好奇。我們面臨的一個更棘手的問題是，如果利潤如此之好，而且還繼續釋放大量儲備，為什麼羅伯對工人補償持悲觀看法。所以只是有點好奇你對營地的看法是否可能改善，或者只是談論那裡的動態。

I think that when it comes to workers' compensation, I miss assessed frequency trend and how remarkably negative it has remained for an extended period of time.

我認為，當談到工人賠償時，我錯過了評估頻率趨勢以及它在較長一段時間內保持的顯著負面趨勢。

In addition to that, I probably did not give enough credit to wage inflation and what that has meant for pricing and by extension margin. On the other hand, I continue to be concerned about medical cost and medical trend. And it is hard for me to imagine that the workers comp market will be insulated from that reality indefinitely.

除此之外，我可能沒有充分重視薪資通膨以及這對定價和延伸利潤的影響。另一方面，我繼續關注醫療成本和醫療趨勢。我很難想像工傷補償市場永遠不受這種現實的影響。

So at this stage, as you would have noticed in the quarter, we grew a little bit in comp even though our rate was ever so modestly negative. But we are finding opportunities to grow in comp but it tends to be very specialized. We are not growing what I would describe as main street comp. We are growing in specialized comp as far as the exposure goes.

因此，在這個階段，正如您在本季注意到的那樣，儘管我們的利率一直很小，但我們的營收還是略有成長。但我們正在尋找在電腦領域成長的機會，但它往往非常專業化。我們並沒有實現我所描述的主要街道上的公司的成長。就曝光度而言，我們在專業化方面正在不斷發展。

Got it. Okay. I appreciate the candidness there. Switching gears, if we reflect on the past year or whatever amount of time you would like to reflect on, is it fair to assume that given you're growing faster in E&S than in scanner commercial, that's having kind of a positive impact on the overall company's combined ratio? Or is that not a fair assessment?

知道了。好的。我欣賞你的坦誠。換個話題，如果我們回顧過去的一年或任何你想回顧的時間，是否可以公平地假設，鑑於你在電子與掃描業務方面的增長速度比在掃描儀商業方面的增長速度更快，這對整個公司的綜合成本率是多少？或者這不是一個公平的評價？

Well, I hope every place we're growing is going to have a positive impact on the combined ratio. I understand your point is E&S higher margin. And in some cases, that is the case, but that's not always the case. But maybe specifically to your point, I think that our loss ratios are in a very good place. Do I think it's possible through the passage of time that they will improve.

好吧，我希望我們發展的每個地方都會對綜合比率產生積極的影響。我明白你的觀點是 E&S 的利潤率較高。在某些情況下確實如此，但並非總是如此。但也許具體到您的觀點，我認為我們的損失率處於非常好的位置。我是否認為隨著時間的推移，他們會有所進步？

Yeah, I do believe that, that is a possibility. Are we going to sort of get ahead of ourselves. No, we are not. Mike, I don't know if we had the conversation, but certainly, Rich and I have chatted with others about it, it was that '16 through '19 year and that stark reminder of the mismatch between when you write your business and when you really know your cost of goods sold. That was a very sobering experience for us.

是的，我確實相信，這是有可能的。我們是不是要超越自己了？不，我們不是。麥克，我不知道我們是否談過這個話題，但可以肯定的是，里奇和我曾與其他人討論過這個問題，那是在2016 年到2019 年之間，當時的情況清楚地提醒我們，當你寫業務時，與你寫業務時的時間不一致。對我們來說那是一次非常令人警醒的經驗。

And as a result of that, we're just not going to get ahead of ourselves. Quite frankly, at this stage, the business is generating without any strain 20-plus percent returns, so there's really no incentive in my opinion, to do anything other than make sure we are thoughtful and measured and continue to have a healthy respect for that reality of not knowing your cost of goods sold until some number of years after we made the sale.

因此，我們不會超越自己。坦白說，目前，我們的業務毫無壓力地產生了20% 以上的回報，所以在我看來，除了確保我們深思熟慮、慎重行事並繼續保持對這一點的尊重之外，我們真的沒有任何動力去做任何事。

So yeah, when we look back on it in the future, I think things are going to look possibly better than they do today. But we're not going to get ahead of ourselves.

所以，是的，當我們將來回顧時，我認為事情可能會比今天更好。但我們不會超越自己。

Got it. And maybe just lastly, sticking on the E&S marketplace. And a lot and clear about your growth outlook kind of direction remains the same as last quarter. But specifically in the E&S marketplace, given how I guess, good returns are for most companies. Just we're hearing some companies talk about some pricing deceleration in the E&S casualty marketplace. Are you seeing that at all?

知道了。也許最後，我們會堅持留在 E&S 市場。您的成長前景和方向與上一季基本一致。但具體到電子與服務市場，我猜測大多數公司都會獲得好的回報。我們剛剛聽到一些公司談論 E&S 意外險市場價格減速。你看到了嗎？

I don't see that in the E&S casualty space. I can imagine that potentially happening in the property space. Let's putting aside whatever the California impact is. But I don't see that happening in the casualty space. And quite frankly, I think, if anything, that pricing environment is more likely than not to remain quite resilient when it comes to casualty.

我在 E&S 傷亡領域沒有看到這種情況。我可以想像這可能在房地產領域發生。我們先把加州的影響放在一邊。但我沒有看到這種情況在傷亡事故中發生。坦白說，我認為，如果有的話，定​​價環境在意外事故方面很可能會保持相當的彈性。

We'll have to see professional perhaps is a different animal. But if we're talking about E&S casualty, then I think that is quite strong, and there's nothing that leads me to believe that you're going to see that momentum erode again, property a little bit different.

我們必須看到專業人士也許是不同的動物。但如果我們談論的是 E&S 災難，那麼我認為這是相當強勁的，並且沒有什麼能讓我相信你會看到這種勢頭再次減弱，財產有點不同。

And if you unpack a lot of the growth that the E&S market has seen over the past several years, it is weighted towards property. So as I think we've all talked about, property tends to respond quickly and very severely, but it tends to be shorter lived as opposed to casualty tends to be slower, but oftentimes has more staying power as far as market conditions.

如果你仔細分析過去幾年 E&S 市場的成長情況，你會發現其主要成長方向是房地產。因此，我想我們都討論過，房地產往往會做出快速且非常嚴重的反應，但持續時間往往較短，而意外事故則往往會較慢，但就市場條件而言，房地產往往具有更強的持久力。

Thank you, Rob.

謝謝你，羅布。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Katie Sakis, Autonomous Research.

凱蒂·薩基斯（Katie Sakis），自主研究。

Yeah, thank you, Good Evening. My first question is on the reinsurance and on online access, loss ratio. I mean it was an exceptional result this quarter on an underlying basis. I know for the insurance segment, you guys cautioned not to read too much into the uptick in the underwriting ratio there. Perhaps you can offer us some color on the result in the reinsurance segment and really what you're thinking on the margins there as you look into 2025.

是的，謝謝，晚上好。我的第一個問題是關於再保險和線上訪問以及損失率。我的意思是，從根本上來說，本季的業績非常出色。我知道，對於保險領域，你們告誡不要過度解讀承保率的上升。也許您可以為我們提供一些關於再保險領域的業績，以及您對 2025 年利潤率的真實看法。

So maybe going back to a couple of the comments earlier. Obviously, we have reservations around some of the casualty lines. And for that matter, some of the professionals within the reinsurance market. In addition to that, on the other hand, we have the property market, we believe is clearly under pressure. You could see that clear as day at 1/1, but we think that there continues to be margin in the business. And for the moment, it's adequately priced. So we are going to continue to ride that property horse as long as we can until we reach a conclusion that it no longer makes sense.

因此也許可以回顧一下之前的幾則評論。顯然，我們對一些傷亡數字持保留態度。就此而言，再保險市場內的一些專業人士也是如此。除此之外，另一方面，我們認為房地產市場明顯面臨壓力。您可以在 1/1 時清楚地看到這一點，但我們認為業務仍然有利潤。目前，它的價格也合理。因此，我們會盡可能地繼續投資房地產，直到我們得出結論：這不再有意義為止。

And then you will see us go from offensive posture to a defensive posture. As far as the casualty goes, I think we already covered that, and that action on the reinsurance front was, again, demonstrated by us shrinking the book by more than 15% in the quarter. And again, I think that it's just a reflection of our view that we're capital managers, we're in business to make money. If we don't think it's a good risk-adjusted return, we're happy to let it go.

然後你會看到我們從進攻姿態轉為防守姿態。就傷亡而言，我認為我們已經涵蓋了這一部分，並且在再保險方面採取的行動再次體現在我們在本季度將帳面金額縮減了 15％ 以上。我再說一次，我認為這只是反映了我們的觀點：我們是資本管理者，我們做生意是為了賺錢。如果我們認為這不是一個好的風險調整回報，我們很樂意放棄它。

Got it. Okay. And then circling back to your commentary, Rob, on the workers' comp growth this quarter. You mentioned there were particular niches of workers' comp where you guys were seeing some opportunity for growth. Are those pockets of growth sustainable?

知道了。好的。然後回到你對本季工人補償成長的評論，羅布。您曾提到，在工傷補償的某些特定領域，您看到了一些成長機會。這些成長點能持續嗎？

And can we continue to see some modest growth out of that line over the next couple of quarters? Or are these niches that kind of pop up and come and go?

在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們能否繼續看到這條路線的適度成長？或者這些利基市場只是突然出現、來來去去嗎？

So obviously, again, nobody knows for sure what tomorrow will bring. But the couple of monoline businesses that participate in the specialty comp space, the momentum that they're enjoying today, we do not see that going away tomorrow. So certainly, we think they will likely continue to be some opportunity throughout '25.

顯然，沒有人確切知道明天會發生什麼。但對於幾家涉足專業保險公司領域的單一險種企業來說，它們目前所享有的勢頭，我們認為明天不會消失。因此，我們當然認為，在2025年，它們很可能會繼續存在一些機會。

Okay. And then if I may sneak in one more. Do you guys have any updates on your 2025 reinsurance program and how your catastrophe loss budget for this year might compare to 2024?

好的。然後我可以再偷偷地再說一次。你們對 2025 年再保險計畫有什麼更新嗎？

I would suggest -- I don't have it at my fingertips. I don't think Rich does. But certainly, if you give Karen a call, she can get into it in some detail or at least as much detail as we're allowed to. But I would remind you of the comment that we shared earlier around our property cat reinsurance, risk adjusted was down 15%-ish or so. And a similar reduction in risk-adjusted rate on the retro.

我想說的是——我並沒有把它放在手邊。我不認為 Rich 會這麼做。但可以肯定的是，如果你給凱倫打電話，她可以詳細地告訴你，或至少盡可能詳細地告訴你。但我想提醒您，我們之前就財產巨災再保險分享的評論是，風險調整後下降了 15％ 左右。風險調整利率也同樣降低。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks for the questions. Have a good night.

感謝您的提問。祝你晚安。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

Bob, Good evening.

鮑勃，晚上好。

Good. Evening. So quick question on -- like I'm curious your view on social inflation really. So it does feel like plaintiff bar is more active in the Northeast and West Coast. In fact, something like California's Commissioner also touched on when it comes to LA wildfire. Are there any particular geography in the US where you feel it could be represented like a higher risk area for social inflation?

好的。晚上。所以快速問一下——我真的很好奇您對社會通膨的看法。因此看起來原告律師在東北和西海岸似乎更加活躍。事實上，加州專員在談到洛杉磯山火時也談到了一些事情。您認為美國是否有某個特定地區可能成為社會通膨的高風險地區？

Like is there a way to think about the Northeast, West Coast, Midwest, Curious your way to think about it. Is it shifting away from Florida and Georgia?

例如，有沒有辦法思考東北部、西岸、中西部，好奇你如何思考它。它是否會從佛羅裡達州和喬治亞州轉移出去？

So I mean, I would tell you that there are certain territories or states or really counties that part of the country that are obviously more challenging than others. I think the difficulty is not the states that have historically been very challenging. But it's the ones that are changing very quickly. And from a legal environment perspective, we have some states that were that are very red and have always been red. We have some states that perhaps are more blue and they've always been blue.

所以我的意思是，我想告訴你，某些地區、州或縣顯然比其他地區更具挑戰性。我認為困難並不在於那些歷史上曾經面臨巨大挑戰的州。但它們的變化非常快。從法律環境的角度來看，有些州的稅收非常昂貴，而且一直都是紅色的。我們有些州可能更藍，而且它們一直都是藍色。

And now what's becoming more challenging in some states that were one color changing to a different or some states, for example, that were perhaps once red and now they're more purple. I would tell you an example of a state that has shifted dramatically would be one that you just mentioned, the state of Georgia.

現在，一些州的情況變得更具挑戰性，它們從一種顏色變成了另一種顏色，或者有些州曾經是紅色，現在變成了紫色。我想給你一個發生巨大變化的州的例子，那就是你剛才提到的喬治亞州。

Where once upon a time, that was an easier place to do business, but it has become ever more aggressive as far as the plaintiff bar goes another state that once upon a time was defendant friendly or more defendant friendly would be Texas, and there are counties in Texas that I'm not quite sure they become Cook County, but they are definitely trending in that direction.

曾經，這是一個更容易做生意的地方，但就原告律師而言，它變得越來越咄咄逼人。太確定德克薩斯州的這些縣是否會成為庫克縣，但它們肯定正朝著這個方向發展。

So I think you raised a really important point. It's one that we internally spend a lot of time thinking about because this rate alone is a very blunt instrument, and so are terms and conditions my colleagues to their credit are obviously using the rate tool and the term and condition tool, but they are also at a very granular level down to county thinking about exposure based on legal environment.

所以我認為你提出了一個非常重要的觀點。這是我們內部花了很多時間考慮的問題，因為單憑這個利率就是一個非常生硬的工具，條款和條件也是如此，我的同事顯然在使用利率工具和條款和條件工具，但他們也在非常精細的層面上，細化到縣級，根據法律環境來考慮風險暴露。

And I think that is going to have to -- that has become and will become increasingly more and more something that this industry is going to have to grapple with.

我認為這已經成為並且將越來越成為這個行業必須解決的問題。

Got it. Okay. I guess my follow-up is just so that like I'm clear. Then in that case, is it fair to say that some of the commercial casualty lines could potentially behave more similar to personal line in the sense where geography and region is more important than the business mix? Like is that a fair statement down the road?I'm just curious as to if that is the direction?

知道了。好的。我想我的後續行動只是為了讓我更清楚。那麼，在這種情況下，是否可以公平地說，一些商業意外險的表現可能更類似於個人險，因為地理位置和區域比業務組合更重要？就像這是以後的一個公平的說法？只是好奇這是否是方向？

You're leaning in the direction of NatCat, if you will, and what that means for exposure. And you're extrapolating from that as far as legal environment by territory and what that means for exposure.

如果你願意的話，你會傾向於 NatCat 的方向，以及這對曝光意味著什麼。並且您可以從中推斷出各地區的法律環境以及這對曝光意味著什麼。

Yeah, yeah. Just to see if that makes sense on your side.

是啊是啊。只是想看看這對您是否有意義。

So the answer is to us, while it's a bit of a generalization directionally, not only do we share your view, we are applying that to how the business operates.

因此，對我們來說，答案雖然在方向上有點概括，但我們不僅認同您的觀點，而且我們將其應用於業務運營。

Okay. Got it. I really appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。知道了。我非常感激。謝謝。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

Hey, good evening.

嘿，晚上好。

Good evening.

晚安.

So, Rob, you spoke, you spoke a little bit about some of the competitiveness in the casualty reinsurance market and commend you guys for stepping back a little bit from that market. I guess has that made you reevaluate at all your outward program, one of your peers purchased a little bit more coverage. Has that entered your thought process at all here as we or did that enter your thought process at all at the 1/1 renewal?

所以，羅布，你談到了意外傷害再保險市場的一些競爭力，並讚揚你們從該市場中稍微退出一點。我想這是否讓你重新評估你所有的外在計劃，你的一個同事買了更多的保險。這是否像我們一樣完全進入了您的思維過程，或者在 1/1 更新時這是否完全進入了您的思維過程？

So we're conscious of cost of capital, both the capital that we effectively own and the capital that we effectively rent, i.e., reinsurance. We also are conscious of the fact that there are some reinsurance relationships that are true partnerships and there are other reinsurance relationships that are truly transactional. Those that are partnerships are ones that tend to endure time. From our perspective, our colleagues are very skilled in understanding where the marketplace is.

因此，我們意識到資本成本，包括我們實際擁有的資本和我們實際租賃的資本，即再保險。我們也意識到，有些再保險關係是真正的合作關係，而其他再保險關係則是真正的交易關係。合作關係往往能夠持久。從我們的角度來看，我們的同事非常了解市場狀況。

And I think are attentive to making sure that we are doing what is in the best interest of our shareholders and simultaneously treating those that are truly our partners with the care and respect that they deserve. So when the day is all done, we're conscious of where the market is, and we're going to do what we think makes sense for this organization, its shareholders and our long-term partners.

我認為，我們會注意確保我們所做的事情符合股東的最大利益，同時給予我們真正的合作夥伴應有的關心和尊重。因此，當一天的工作結束時，我們會意識到市場的狀況，並會做我們認為對這個組織、它的股東和我們的長期合作夥伴有意義的事情。

Got it. That's helpful. And then it was good to see the commercial auto growth tick up a little bit as well as the other liability growth in the quarter. I guess are rates in those lines? Are they at levels that are, I guess, good enough for you guys to continue to lean in as we head into 2025?

知道了。這很有幫助。很高興看到本季商用汽車成長以及其他負債成長均有所上升。我猜利率是這樣的吧？我想，這些水準是否夠好，可以讓你們在邁向 2025 年之際繼續保持下去？

Obviously, we were satisfied with the available rate. Otherwise, we wouldn't have written the business, i.e., as you saw what we did in the reinsurance space. Today, given the rates that we were able to achieve, we're happy with it. I don't know what the rating environment will be for the balance of the year.

顯然，我們對現有的價格感到滿意。否則，我們就不會開展這項業務，正如您所看到的，我們在再保險領域所做的事情。今天，考慮到我們所能夠實現的利率，我們對此感到滿意。我不知道今年剩下的評級環境將會如何。

But from my perspective, the loss activity that the marketplace is facing and some of our competitors have finally come into grips with reality is creating an opportunity for those of us that have been already grappling with that reality to move forward more quickly.

但從我的角度來看，市場所面臨的虧損活動以及我們的一些競爭對手終於認清現實，為我們這些已經在努力應對現實的人創造了一個更快前進的機會。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I know you guys didn't get the reserve development by segment. So I'll follow up with Ken. I guess. I'm just wondering.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我知道你們沒有按部分進行儲備發展。因此我會跟進肯。我想是的。我只是好奇。

It's like the one piece of paper I left in my office, and it's a long hall and I got short legs. So give Karen a call.

它就像我留在辦公室的一張紙，那是一條長長的走廊，而我的腿很短。所以打電話給凱倫吧。

Yeah, will do. I guess there's obviously a lot more focus on the more recent accident years. I'm sure you guys are also laser-focused on that as well. And we can see it in the pit. Any sort of incremental color that you can provide on that would be helpful.

好的，我會的。我想人們顯然更加關注最近幾年的事故。我確信你們也同樣關注這一點。我們可以在坑裡看到它。您提供的任何種類的增量顏色都會很有幫助。

Yeah. I mean nothing really beyond what we talked about. I think we continue to be very as we've mentioned even earlier on this call, we're very focused on auto liability. We're very focused on other product lines where there is the potential for injury to individual that seems to turbocharge social inflation. So I think one needs to do is social inflation impacting most liability lines or yes, the answer is but it does not apply equally to all product lines.

是的。我的意思其實只是談論了我們談論的內容而已。我認為我們將繼續非常關注汽車責任，正如我們早些時候在電話會議上提到的那樣。我們非常關注其他產品線，這些產品線有可能對個人造成傷害，這似乎會加劇社會通貨膨脹。因此，我認為需要考慮的是社會通膨是否會影響大多數責任險種，或者是的，答案是肯定的，但它並不同樣適用於所有產品線。

We are concerned at MedMal. We are concerned about auto liability. We're even concerned about other types of coverage where you could have an individual or a group of people physically hurt. That seems to be where a jury will take someone to the wood jet.

我們對 MedMal 感到擔憂。我們關心汽車責任。我們甚至擔心其他類型的保險可能會讓個人或一群人受到身體傷害。陪審團似乎會帶某人去看木質噴射機。

And we are doing what we need to do on that front as covered earlier from a rate perspective, from a selection perspective, from a terms and conditions perspective. And part of selection, as discussed with our colleagues a few moments ago, is territory jurisdiction, whatever, county.

如同先前從利率角度、從選擇角度、從條款和條件角度所述，我們正在做我們需要做的事情。正如我們剛才與同事討論的那樣，選擇的一部分是領土管轄權，無論是縣。

Yeah, understood. Thanks for that color.

嗯，明白了。謝謝你這個顏色。

I appreciate it. Thank you. Have a good night.

我很感激。謝謝。祝你晚安。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

Good afternoon or evening.

下午好或晚上好。

Hi. Hi, Rob. How are you?

你好。你好，羅布。你好嗎？

Good evening. I guess -- so we spend some time talking about like these examples where bodily injury to individuals is exacerbating social inflation. How is the loss trend in those situations, is that getting worse? Or is it just something that you're talking about now that you've been seeing internally for long.

晚安.我想——所以我們花了一些時間來討論這些例子，個人的身體傷害加劇了社會通貨膨脹。這些情況下的損失趨勢如何，是否會變得更糟？或者這只是您現在談論的、您內心早已看到的事情。

I think that it is just very apparent that, that trend is a bit steeper, and that's not something new. It just has been. And I couldn't figure out what the heck to talk about today, so I figured I should talk mention that.

我認為，很明顯，這種趨勢更加明顯，這並不是什麼新鮮事。事實就是如此。我不知道今天到底該說什麼，所以我想我應該要提一下這個。

Fair enough. Okay. When you talk about, I guess, the various court jurisdictions. So the one that stands out to the concern is older ones getting, I'm sorry, better ones historically getting worse. How should we think about that in the context of longer tail or medium tail lines reserves.

很公平。好的。我想，當您談論各種法院管轄權時。因此，最令人擔憂的是，較舊的系統變得越來越糟，對不起，從歷史上看，較好的系統變得越來越糟。在長尾或中尾線儲備的背景下，我們應該如何考慮這個問題。

I think for people who haven't been paying attention, it's likely for them to have some catch up to do. I think for people who have been paying, I mean what I was describing as far as Georgia, Texas, whatever, as displace holders, this isn't like something that just happened last quarter. This has been a groundswell that has been percolating.

我認為對於那些還沒有關注的人來說，他們可能需要做一些事情來彌補。我認為，對於一直在付款的人來說，我的意思是，我所描述的佐治亞州、德克薩斯州等地的流離失所者，這並不像上個季度才發生的事情。這是一股正在醞釀的民意浪潮。

And we just happen to be talking about it tonight. But we've been talking about this internally for not what would be measured in quarters when we red in years. So the response to those realities, those are already well in place.

今晚我們恰好在談論這件事。但是我們內部一直在討論這個問題，因為我們不知道以年為單位計算時應該以季度為單位來衡量什麼。因此，針對這些現實情況的回應已經到位了。

Okay. Understood. And then final quick question. You talked about a mix change impacting the ex cat accident year loss ratio in the Insurance segment. How is it impacting the expense ratio? That mix change?

好的。明白了。最後還有最後一個快速提問。您談到了影響保險領域非重大事故年度損失率的組合變化。它對費用率有何影響？混合改變了嗎？

I don't think it's having much of an impact on the expense ratio. What's really driving the movement. And as you saw, I think period-over-period, it only moved 10th of a percent. So it was fairly small. So I would say, as it relates to the acquisition costs, we're not seeing huge changes other than perhaps where there might be a change in the reinsurance structure that we have from 1 year to another year where we might have gone from a quota share to an excess of loss or vice versa.

我認為這對費用率沒有太大影響。真正推動這場運動的是什麼？正如您所看到的，我認為與上一時期相比，它僅變動了百分之十分之一。所以它相當小。因此，我想說，就收購成本而言，除了再保險結構可能每年發生變化（可能從配額變為再保險結構），我們沒有看到太大的變化。

So there would obviously be some differences in terms of where that runs through in the income statement.

因此，在損益表中的具體體現方面顯然會存在一些差異。

Okay, Fantastic. Thanks so much.

好的，太棒了。非常感謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的布萊恩·梅雷迪斯。

Thanks. Hey, how you doing? A couple of questions here for you. The first one big picture. So a number of the standard commercial carriers have talked about grant still small growing in the E&S market, right, how the operations and are growing there. I'm just curious kind of what your thoughts are there. Is that at all impeding on some of maybe your opportunities in the marketplace? Are you seeing that?

謝謝。嘿，你好嗎？這裡有幾個問題想問您。第一張大圖。因此，許多標準商業承運商都談到了 E&S 市場中贈款的小型成長，對吧，以及他們的營運如何以及在那裡如何成長。我只是好奇你的想法是什麼。這是否會妨礙您在市場上獲得一些機會？你看到了嗎？

In the interest of time, I'm going to be direct, but I don't mean to be lipid is respectful, we don't see them.

為了節省時間，我會直接說，但我並不意味著對脂質表示尊重，我們看不到它們。

Good. That's helpful. And then I guess the other one, I'm curious about is maybe you can kind of flesh out a little bit what's going on with Berkley One. I know that's been a good operation growing kind of expectations here for 2025, homeowner insurance is still a pretty hard market. Maybe give us some view on kind of opportunity there?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想另一個我很好奇的問題是，也許你能夠稍微詳細地講一下 Berkley One 的情況。我知道這是一個很好的舉措，對 2025 年的期望越來越高，但房屋保險仍然是一個相當困難的市場。也許您可以給我們一些關於那裡機會的看法？

So look, I think that the opportunity that existed yesterday that exists today, it will be just as strong tomorrow. I think we have truly an exceptional team of people that are very skilled when it comes to managing the shareholders' capital. I think they have done truly a fantastic job in building a franchise that is not just accretive to their operation, but it's truly accretive economically and brand-wise to the group overall. And I think that their contribution to the profitability of the group in the 2025 year will be considerable.

所以，我認為昨天存在的機會和今天存在的機會一樣，明天也會同樣強大。我認為我們確實擁有一支出色的團隊，他們在管理股東資本方面非常熟練。我認為他們在建立特許經營方面做得非常出色，這不僅對他們的營運有增值作用，而且對整個集團的經濟和品牌也具有真正的增值作用。而且我認為他們對2025年集團獲利能力的貢獻將是相當可觀的。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thanks, Brian. Have a good evening.

謝謝，布萊恩。祝你晚上愉快。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬許‧尚克（Josh Shanker）。

Hi, Josh. Good evening.

嗨，喬希。晚安.

Yeah. Thank you very much. Hi there, everybody. I just wanted to maybe ask a little more specific question on Brian, hopefully one. Obviously, you don't write homeowners in California. There's certainly about that market that are unattractive to you. I'm wondering what kind of reforms you could see in that state's insurance regime that would make that market more attractive for Berkley One? And are there other states that you have a probits writing until some things change about those states?

是的。非常感謝。大家好。我只是想問一個關於 Brian 的更具體的問題，希望是一個。顯然，你不會寫加州的房主。那個市場肯定有一些對你來說缺乏吸引力。我想知道您認為該州的保險制度可以進行哪些改革，從而使該市場對 Berkley One 更具吸引力？在其他州的情況發生變化之前，您是否還編寫了機率模型？

Josh, thanks for the question. And I think the Berkley One team at this stage when it comes to homeowners, they are very focused on the opportunities in the markets that they're in. Will they add other markets over time? Yes. is California and the OnDeck circle. I think that there is a healthy recognition and appreciation and respect for the challenges that exist in that market on multiple levels.

喬希，謝謝你的提問。我認為，Berkley One 團隊現階段在為房主提供服務時，非常關注他們所在市場的機會。隨著時間的推移他們會擴大其他市場嗎？是的。是加州和 OnDeck 圈。我認為人們對該市場在多個層面上存在的挑戰有著健康的認識、讚賞和尊重。

And consequently, I think the team has appropriately made the decision that this is not a distraction or that we would like to have today, not an area of focus for the foreseeable. And certainly, for the people of California and that insurance market and those that participate there and other stakeholders, we wish them nothing but the best. But at this moment in time, we are very focused on other opportunities that were before

因此，我認為團隊已經恰當地做出了決定，這不會分散我們的注意力，也不會成為我們今天所希望的、可預見的關注領域。當然，對於加州人民、保險市場、參與者和其他利益相關者，我們衷心祝福他們一切順利。但目前，我們非常關注以前沒有的其他機會。

And I want us to go an investment question. Over the long term, the shareholders have been rewarded very well. through some of the alternative investments that Berkley, you have made over many years. It's not been really the case in 2024 in a year which has enjoyed very significant market appreciation for public equities. Can you talk a little bit about what you see for '25?

我想討論一個投資問題。從長期來看，股東獲得了非常豐厚的回報。透過柏克萊多年來進行的一些另類投資。2024 年的情況並非如此，這一年公開股票的市場升值非常顯著。可以稍微談談你對 25 年的展望嗎？

Is the positioning of the portfolio potentially improve? Obviously, you're not going to make foolish investments overall. But what's been preventing Berkley from realizing the potential of that part of its strategy and what can we see in the future?

投資組合的定位是否有可能改善？顯然，總體而言你不會做出愚蠢的投資。但是，是什麼阻礙了柏克萊實現其戰略這一部分的潛力？

So Josh, maybe a couple of quick comments. First off, as far as alternatives. And Rich had flagged what we saw coming through in a couple of our investments, particularly in the unrealized associated with public securities. So I think it was about $150 million, $160 million unrealized which was, I think, pretty healthy for a 90-day period. Putting that aside as far as other areas of the alternative investment portfolio, I would suggest that one not lead to a conclusion Obviously, oftentimes, there is value that exists that may not necessarily be as visible.

那麼 Josh，也許我可以快速發表幾點評論。首先，就替代方案而言。里奇已經標記了我們在幾項投資中看到的結果，特別是與公開證券相關的未實現收益。所以我認為未實現的金額約為 1.5 億美元、1.6 億美元，這對於 90 天的時間來說相當健康。撇開這一點，就另類投資組合的其他領域而言，我建議不要得出這樣的結論：顯然，很多時候，存在著可能不一定那麼明顯的價值。

So I understand your point about the 24-year again, no different than the underwriting or the investing on the public securities. Our focus is long-term risk-adjusted return. We're and sometimes in the alternative portfolio, that could be a little bit lumpy, but the focus on total return is not something that is an -- is lost on us today just like it wasn't lost on us tomorrow. But before we go any further on to any other questions or discussion you'd like to have, Josh, maybe I can turn it over to my boss here, who takes a particular interest in the alternative investment portfolio.

所以我再次理解你關於 24 年期的觀點，這與承銷或投資公共證券沒有什麼不同。我們的重點是長期風險調整報酬。我們有時會在另類投資組合中出現一些波動，但對總回報的關注並不是——今天我們不會忘記，就像明天我們也不會忘記一樣。但是，喬希，在我們進一步討論你想問的任何其他問題或討論之前，也許我可以把它交給我的老闆，他對另類投資組合特別感興趣。

I think that our portfolio as a whole, especially our public company portfolio had a very good year. I think that the performance for the year was adversely impacted primarily by one private equity fund that did not do well. It's was a surprise to us on a couple of things, and it had a consequential adverse impact. We think that's behind us. But I think honestly, some of that private equity investing will be reduced as the available returns in more liquid markets are such that the advantage of private equity is somewhat diminished.

我認為，我們的整體投資組合，特別是上市公司投資組合，今年的表現非常好。我認為，今年的業績主要受到了一隻表現不佳的私募股權基金的不利影響。有幾件事讓我們感到意外，並產生了負面影響。我們認為這已經過去了。但我認為，說實話，由於流動性較強的市場中可用的回報使得私募股權的優勢有所減弱，因此部分私募股權投資將會減少。

That doesn't mean we will take advantage of things when they come up, but our broker is a little higher with a little less risk. So it was no doubt above the road that can always happen. But I wouldn't expect it to be a problem going forward.

這並不意味著當事情發生時我們會利用它，只是我們的經紀人收費較高，風險較小。因此毫無疑問，上面的道路上總是會發生這種情況。但我並不認為這會成為未來的問題。

Thank you. I will see the evening to you, gentlemen. Thank you very much.

謝謝。我將為你們獻上今晚的歡樂，先生們。非常感謝。

Thanks Josh. Have a good evening.

謝謝喬希。祝你晚上愉快。

Yaron Kinar, Jeffries.

亞龍·基納爾，傑弗里斯。

Good evening. Hey, hey, good afternoon. This is Andrew on for Yaron. I was just hoping within insurance in short tail lines, some pretty good growth this year and particularly in the quarter. Can you help us just think about the drivers there? Was it property Inland Marine? A&H?

晚安.嘿嘿，下午好。這是 Yaron 的 Andrew。我只是希望今年，特別是本季度，短尾保險領域能夠實現相當好的成長。您能幫我們想想那裡的司機嗎？它是 Inland Marine 的財產嗎？啊？

Yeah and yeah.

是的，是的。

Okay. So kind of all three is contributing.

好的。所以這三個人都做出了貢獻。

Property and inland marine, though it's not as big a play for us as property. But yes, mainly property.

房地產和內陸航運，儘管對我們來說，它們並不像房地產那麼重要。但確實，主要是財產。

And then just on the 50 basis points impact to current year picks, I know you mentioned it was business mix, but I would think with the growth in property that would be beneficial to the underlying. So was perhaps offset a bit by auto-related exposures or a different factor going on there?

然後僅就 50 個基點對當年選擇的影響而言，我知道您提到這是業務組合，但我認為隨著房地產的增長，這將有利於基礎資產。那麼，這是否會因與汽車相關的風險或其他因素而受到一定程度的抵消？

This is Rich. I think that's certainly part of the equation, but you also have to look at the contribution that the short tail lines makes relative to the other casualty lines as well, which have higher loss ratios. So if you look, for instance, at other liability in auto, as an example, that represents close to 50% of the total book of business, which does have typically higher loss ratios than property or short tail lines.

這是里奇。我認為這當然是等式的一部分，但你還必須考慮短尾險相對於其他傷亡險種的貢獻，因為其他傷亡險種的損失率更高。因此，如果您看一下汽車行業中的其他責任險，您會發現這部分責任險佔總業務量的近 50％，其損失率通常高於財產險或短尾險。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, there are no further questions. I'll hand things back to Mr. Rob Berkley for any additional or closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題。我將把議題交還給 Rob Berkley 先生，請他發表補充意見或結論。

Okay. Lisa, thank you very much for hosting us this evening, and thank you to all our participants for dialing in. I think I'll just flag again clearly an outstanding year, but that's a reflection of what we did yesterday. But perhaps equally, if not more important, is how we have set the table for 2025, and that is very well positioned. In addition to that, with every passing day, we are setting the table for '26.

好的。Lisa，非常感謝您今晚的接待，也感謝所有參與者的撥打電話。我想我會再次清楚地標記這是出色的一年，但這反映了我們昨天所做的事情。但也許同樣重要，甚至更重要的是，我們為2025年做好了準備，而且已經做好了非常充分的準備。除此之外，隨著每一天的過去，我們都在為26年做準備。

So the business is firing on all cylinders, and we do not see that changing for the foreseeable. Thank you again for dialing in, and we look forward to speaking with you in about 90 days. Have a good evening.

因此，業務正在全速發展，我們認為在可預見的時間內這種情況不會改變。再次感謝您的來電，我們期待在大約 90 天後與您通話。祝你晚上愉快。

And once again, everyone, that does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

各位，今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。