W R Berkley Corp (WRB) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the W.R. Berkley Corporation fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call. This conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的到來，歡迎參加 W.R. Berkley 公司 2025 年第四季及全年收益電話會議。本次電話會議正在錄音。（操作說明）

The speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, believes, expects, or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates, or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate, and the important factors that may materially affect our results.

發言者的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。有些前瞻性陳述可以透過使用前瞻性字詞來識別，包括但不限於「相信」、「預期」或「估計」。我們提醒您，此類前瞻性聲明不應被視為我們對未來計劃、估計或預期將會實現的保證。有關我們經營的業務環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素的描述，請參閱我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。

W.R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

W.R. Berkley 公司沒有義務，並且明確聲明不承擔任何更新或修改其前瞻性聲明的義務，無論是因為新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話交給羅伯·伯克利先生。請繼續，先生。

Kevin, thank you very much, and good afternoon, all. And let me echo Kevin, welcome to our fourth-quarter call, and we appreciate everyone finding the time to tune in and certainly are grateful for your interest in the company.

凱文，非常感謝你，大家午安。我也想附和凱文的話，歡迎大家參加我們的第四季電話會議，感謝各位抽出時間收聽，也衷心感謝大家對公司的關注。

On this end of the call, you also, in addition to me, you have Rich Baio and Bill Berkley, and we are going to be following our typical pattern as we have in the past where I'm going to offer a couple of quick soundbites, and we're going to hand it over to Rich. He's going to do the heavy lift as far as walking us through some highlights on the quarter of the year, then I will trail behind him with a few more soundbites and then of course, we're very pleased to entertain questions.

電話這邊，除了我之外，還有 Rich Baio 和 Bill Berkley，我們將按照以往的慣例進行，我會先發表幾句簡短的評論，然後把麥克風交給 Rich。他將負責主要工作，為我們介紹本季的一些亮點，然後我會跟著他補充一些要點，當然，我們也非常樂意回答大家的問題。

Before we get rolling here though, it seems like perhaps the most appropriate place to start would be with a few words of gratitude. Those of you that have had an opportunity to review the release and certainly as you hear Rich's comments, I think it will come into sharp focus that 2025 was yet another great year for the company.

不過，在我們正式開始之前，或許最適合的開場白應該是表達一些感激之情。看過這份報告的人，尤其是聽過 Rich 的評論的人，我想你們都會清楚地認識到，2025 年對公司來說又是輝煌的一年。

As I've shared with some in the past, these types of outcomes, they don't happen on their own. They happen because people make it happen. People go above and beyond to achieve a goal. And I just want to express my gratitude and a heartfelt congratulations to approximately 7,600 people that all come together to really deliver a great outcome for the good, not only of our shareholders but to all stakeholders that we serve. So again, thank you and congratulations.

正如我過去曾與一些人分享的那樣，這類結果不會自行發生。它們之所以發生，是因為人們促成了它們的發生。人們為了實現目標會付出超乎尋常的努力。我只想表達我的感激之情和衷心的祝賀，感謝大約 7600 人齊心協力，為公司帶來了巨大的成果，這不僅造福了我們的股東，也造福了我們所服務的所有利益相關者。再次感謝，並恭喜你。

A couple of macro observations, not particularly insightful, but perhaps it'll invite some conversation a little bit later on. Number one is, I think it is clear as day that the world is moving at an ever-increasing pace. The world is becoming ever more complicated. And in my mind, and I think the minds of many others is the simple question whether this industry is going to be able to keep up with that pace of change. We're not an industry that has been able to embrace change. In fact, I think the industry has really struggled with change over generations. But the challenges before us.

一些宏觀層面的觀察，雖然沒什麼特別深刻的見解，但或許能引發一些後續的討論。第一點，我認為顯而易見的是，世界正以越來越快的速度發展。世界變得越來越複雜。在我看來，我相信也是許多其他人心中的疑問，就是這個產業能否跟上這種變化的腳步。我們這個產業一直不太能接受改變。事實上，我認為這個行業在幾個世代的時間裡一直難以適應變革。但我們面臨的挑戰依然嚴峻。

Clearly, one of the areas that is creating some of the greatest challenge and is driving this trajectory of change to be so deep and the velocity to be so significant is technology. And the tip of that spear without a doubt these days is AI.

顯然，造成最大挑戰並推動這種深刻變革和如此顯著速度的領域之一是技術。毫無疑問，如今這支矛的尖端就是人工智慧。

There's a lot of discussion around AI and what it means for the industry. Much of the conversation appropriately is focused on the adoption. How will the industry adopt these tools? What will it mean from an operational perspective. And these are certainly questions that we are grappling with actively. And we are well on our way to be utilizing many of these tools throughout our organization.

人工智慧及其對產業的影響引發了許多討論。大部分討論都集中在收養問題上，這很合理。業界將如何採用這些工具？從營運角度來看，這意味著什麼？這些當然是我們正在積極努力解決的問題。我們正在穩步推進在整個組織內應用這些工具。

But from our perspective, that's not the only question. One also needs to be grappling with the question of, what does this mean for us as underwriters? How do we think about these new technologies and the impact they're having on society, the impact that they're having on our insured, what it means for risk, and our ability to fully understand that risk, so we can control it, select it, and price for it.

但從我們的角度來看，這並不是唯一的問題。我們還需要認真思考，這對我們這些核保人來說又意味著什麼？我們應該如何看待這些新技術及其對社會的影響，它們對我們的投保人的影響，它們對風險的意義，以及我們充分了解這種風險的能力，以便我們能夠控制它、選擇它並為其定價。

We, as an organization, are particularly well situated or quite frankly built for this type of change. We have the best of both worlds. We have this scale to be able to participate at any level. At the same time, because of our structure, we have the agility to be able to pivot quickly. And in addition to that, we have the benefit of not putting all of our chips on red or black. In fact, we have 60 different incubators where we're able to experiment, learn, and then cross-pollinate.

作為一個組織，我們特別適合，或者坦白說，我們天生就適合這種類型的變革。我們擁有兩全其美的優勢。我們擁有這樣的規模，可以參與任何層級的活動。同時，由於我們的組織結構，我們具備快速調整的靈活性。除此之外，我們還有一個好處，就是不必把所有的籌碼都押在紅色或黑色上。事實上，我們有 60 個不同的孵化器，我們可以在那裡進行實驗、學習，然後進行雜交。

Another area of great change is the topic of distribution. There is no doubt that customers are changing -- customers' priorities are changing. But in addition to that, the relationship between traditional distribution and carriers is without a doubt of all things.

另一個變化巨大的領域是分銷管道。毫無疑問，顧客正在改變——顧客的優先事項正在改變。但除此之外，傳統分銷商與承運商之間的關係毫無疑問。

Once upon a time, it was a very simple straightforward relationship. One was the factory, the other was the distributor. But today, traditional partners -- traditional distribution oftentimes is not just a partner, but it's actually a competitor.

從前，這是一種非常簡單直接的關係。一個是工廠，一個是分銷商。但如今，傳統合作夥伴——傳統經銷商往往不只是合作夥伴，實際上還是競爭對手。

Furthermore, we are actively looking at changes, as I mentioned a moment ago, in the behaviors of customers. Customers are much more comfortable with a self-serve model. And it is becoming increasingly clear that convenience is more important to many customers than price.

此外，正如我剛才提到的，我們正在積極關注客戶行為的變化。顧客更喜歡自助服務模式。而且越來越明顯的是，對許多顧客來說，便利性比價格更重要。

Please do not misunderstand my comments. We are very committed to our partners. At the same time, it is not lost on us that the customer is queen or king. And that we, as an organization, are going to do what we need to do to meet them where, when, and how they wished to be met.

請不要誤會我的意思。我們對合作夥伴非常重視。同時，我們始終銘記顧客至上。而我們作為一個組織，將盡一切努力，在他們希望被滿足的時間、地點和方式上滿足他們的需求。

Let me move on to a couple of comments about the marketplace more specifically. Let me start with the ugly.

接下來，我想更具體地談談市場方面的問題。先說說不好的方面。

Auto liability with something we have been talking about. I don't know, Richie, it's got to be a couple of years at this stage. It continues to be a challenge. And from my perspective, while we did speak about possibly seeing some green shoots, I guess it would have been early in '25, that proved to be a mirage. As it turned out, the market has continued to find new lows, and our hope is as we make our way towards the end of '26, we find a bottom.

汽車責任險，以及我們一直在討論的內容。我不知道，里奇，現階段估計得花上幾年。這仍然是一個挑戰。從我的角度來看，雖然我們確實談到了可能會出現一些好轉的跡象，但我想那應該是在 25 年初，結果證明那隻是海市蜃樓。結果證明，市場持續創下新低，我們希望在 2026 年底之際，市場能夠觸底反彈。

In addition to that, we -- I think last quarter, perhaps the quarter before, but certainly last quarter, we talked about large account property, particularly [Sheraton Laird]. I would suggest to you that this market is a feeding frenzy. At this stage and furthermore, I would tell you that London, particularly Lloyd's, is perhaps the hotspot for the feeding frenzy.

除此之外，我想上個季度，或許是上個季度，但肯定是上個季度，我們討論了大客戶資產，特別是[喜來登萊爾德飯店]我認為這個市場正處於一場瘋狂的搶購潮中。現階段，我還要告訴你，倫敦，尤其是勞合社，可能是這場搶購狂潮的熱點。

On the topic of property, reinsurance, maybe a little forward-looking because it relates to 1/1, a data point for you all as it relates to our property tax treaty that our main treaty. Our rate -- our risk adjusted rate decrease was 19%. So from my perspective, I think that speaks volumes to the challenges in the market and perhaps what will be waterfalling and making the marketplace more competitive.

關於財產、再保險，也許有點前瞻性，因為它與 1/1 有關，這是你們所有人需要了解的一個數據點，因為它與我們主要的財產稅條約有關。我們的利率－經風險調整後的利率下降了19%。所以從我的角度來看，我認為這充分說明了市場面臨的挑戰，或許也說明了哪些因素會導致市場競爭加劇。

Let me also suggest that we are seeing early signs that the competitiveness in the property cat market would seem to be spilling over into the casualty market. I think many participants are struggling, quite frankly, with getting to their premium targets on the property front. And as a result of that are trying to lean into the casualty to try and hit their top line. The big difference is the property cat market have bounced a couple of years ago, so they are starting from a different altitude, casualty never really had that bounce.

我還想指出，我們已經看到一些早期跡象表明，財產巨災市場的競爭似乎正在蔓延到意外險市場。坦白說，我認為很多參與者在房地產方面都難以達到他們的優質目標。因此，他們試圖利用傷亡來達到他們的營收目標。最大的差別在於，財產巨災市場幾年前已經反彈，所以它們的起點不同，而意外險市場從未真正經歷過那種反彈。

Moving over to professional. As we've talked about in the past, D&O remains a challenge, and I would add A&E architects and engineers.

轉戰專業領域。正如我們過去討論過的，董事及高階主管責任險仍然是一個挑戰，我還要補充一點，建築師和工程師也面臨著同樣的挑戰。

Some of the brighter spots because it is not all doom and gloom, I would suggest, is the casualty market. In particular, I would tell you that the smaller end of town and the excess and umbrella market are both offering opportunity for meaningful rate. E&S also stands out, but there is clearly opportunity in the standard market as well.

我認為，由於並非全是壞消息和悲觀情緒，所以也有一些亮點，例如意外傷害保險市場。尤其值得一提的是，城鎮的小端市場以及多餘的繖形市場都提供了獲得合理利率的機會。E&S 也表現出色，但標準市場顯然也存在機會。

I would also flag within the A&H space, medical stop loss continues to be an attractive place from our perspective. Berkley One, our private client operation, continues to see great opportunity to grow as they continue to be a preferred alternative in the marketplace.

我還想指出，在意外傷害和健康險領域，從我們的角度來看，醫療停損仍然是一個很有吸引力的領域。Berkley One 是我們的私人客戶業務部門，由於其在市場上持續受到青睞，因此仍擁有巨大的發展機會。

And finally, last but not least, what we've been talking about for some extended period of time, workers' compensation. While it is not rosy at this stage, there are early signs that are coming into focus that perhaps participants in the California market are starting to come to grips with reality and that there is some early signs of a backbone reemerging.

最後，也是最重要的一點，我們已經討論了一段時間的工傷賠償問題。雖然目前情況並不樂觀，但一些早期跡象表明，加州市場的參與者或許開始正視現實，並且出現了一些市場復甦的早期跡象。

So I went on a lot longer than I promised, but that's not the first time that's happened. But that's just because after they listen to you, Rich, they all tune out. So I got it off my chest, and why don't you go ahead and run with it, please.

所以，我講的時間比我承諾的要長很多，但這也不是第一次發生這種事了。但那是因為他們聽完你的講話後，里奇，就都充耳不聞了。我已經把心裡話說出來了，為什麼不繼續推進這件事？

Okay. Great. Thanks, Rob. Good evening, everyone. As Rob mentioned, the fourth quarter closed out an outstanding 2025 full year with record quarterly operating earnings of $450 million or $1.13 per share growing 9.5% over the prior year with a 21.4% return on beginning of year equity.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，羅伯。各位晚上好。正如羅布所提到的，第四季度為出色的 2025 全年畫上了圓滿的句號，創下了季度營業收入 4.5 億美元或每股 1.13 美元的紀錄，比上一年增長了 9.5%，年初權益回報率為 21.4%。

Net income of $450 million or $1.13 per share also resulted in a 21.4% return on beginning of year equity. Record quarterly pretax underwriting income and strong net investment income from our core portfolio contributed to the excellent quarterly results.

淨收入 4.5 億美元，即每股 1.13 美元，也帶來了年初權益回報率 21.4%。創紀錄的季度稅前承銷收入和核心投資組合強勁的淨投資收入促成了優異的季度業績。

Beginning first with our underwriting performance, continued rate improvement, lower catastrophe losses, and prudent expense management resulted in record quarterly pretax underwriting income of $338 million, an improvement of 14.9% over the prior year.

首先從我們的承保業績來看，持續的費率改善、較低的巨災損失以及審慎的費用管理，使得季度稅前承保收入達到創紀錄的 3.38 億美元，比上一年增長了 14.9%。

Current accident year cat losses in the current quarter declined to $48 million or 1.5 loss ratio points. The expense ratio improved to 28.2%, driven by record net premiums earned of $3.2 billion as well as operational efficiencies arising from investments in technology, business process outsourcing, and a nonrecurring benefit for commission-related accruals. We expect that our expense ratio will continue to be comfortably below 30% in 2026, barring a meaningful change in the marketplace.

本季本季度本事故年度巨災損失下降至 4,800 萬美元，損失率下降 1.5 個百分點。費用率改善至 28.2%，這得益於創紀錄的 32 億美元淨保費收入，以及透過投資技術、業務流程外包和佣金相關應計款項的非經常性收益而帶來的營運效率提升。我們預計，除非市場發生重大變化，否則到 2026 年，我們的費用率將繼續保持在 30% 以下。

The current accident year loss ratio, excluding cats for the quarter, was 59.7%, slightly better than the two preceding sequential quarters. The shift from one quarter to the next is largely driven by each operating unit's contribution to the whole, which is influenced by where we may be growing or pulling back based on market conditions.

本季事故年度損失率（不包括巨災損失）為 59.7%，略優於前兩季。季度之間的變化主要取決於每個營運部門對整體的貢獻，而這又受到我們根據市場情況選擇成長或收縮業務的影響。

In sum, the current accident year combined ratio ex cats is 87.9% and the calendar year combined ratio was 89.4%.

綜上所述，本事故年度綜合事故率（不包括重大事故）為 87.9%，且日曆年度綜合事故率為 89.4%。

By segment, current accident year loss ratio ex cat for insurance improved to 6.6% and remained relatively flat to the full-year results for 2024 and 2025. The Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment was 53.9%, resulting in a strong current accident year combined ratio ex cat of 83%.

依業務部門劃分，當事故年度（不含災害損失）保險損失率改善至 6.6%，與 2024 年及 2025 年全年業績基本持平。再保險和單一險種超額險業務佔 53.9%，導致本年度事故綜合比率（不包括重大事故）達到 83%。

Strong operating cash flows of nearly $1 billion for the quarter and $3.6 billion for the full year have contributed to the increase in our invested assets which grew 11.4% during 2025 to $33.2 billion, reaching a record level.

本季強勁的營運現金流接近 10 億美元，全年營運現金流達到 36 億美元，推動了我們投資資產的成長，到 2025 年，投資資產成長 11.4%，達到 332 億美元，創歷史新高。

The combination of investable assets like cash and short-term assets as well as the roll-off of fixed maturities at book yields below the new money rate positions us well for future growth and investment income. This improvement was evident in our investment income attributable to the fixed maturity portfolio, which grew 13.3% quarter over quarter to $346 million, partially offsetting this growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was investment fund losses of $32 million, bringing our overall pretax net investment income to $338 million.

現金和短期資產等可投資資產的組合，以及以低於新貨幣利率的帳面收益率到期的固定收益的展期，使我們為未來的成長和投資收益奠定了良好的基礎。這一改善體現在我們固定期限投資組合的投資收益上，該收益環比增長 13.3%，達到 3.46 億美元。 2025 年第四季度，投資基金虧損 3,200 萬美元，部分抵銷了這一增長，使我們的稅前淨投資收益總額達到 3.38 億美元。

The credit quality of the investment portfolio remains very strong at AA- while the duration of our fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, increased to three years.

投資組合的信用品質仍然非常強勁，達到 AA- 級，而包括現金及現金等價物在內的固定期限投資組合的久期增加至三年。

As a reminder, the duration was 2.6 years as of year-end 2024 and has been increasing throughout 2025, yet remain shorter than the average life of our liabilities. The effective tax rate in the fourth quarter was 20.5% and benefited from a lower effective tax rate relating to foreign earnings and the utilization of foreign tax credits. We expect the annual effected effective tax rate will approximate 23% for the full year of 2026.

提醒一下，截至 2024 年底，期限為 2.6 年，並且在 2025 年一直在增加，但仍然短於我們負債的平均期限。第四季實際稅率為 20.5%，這得益於與海外收益相關的較低實際稅率以及外國稅收抵免的利用。我們預計 2026 年全年實際稅率將約為 23%。

Turning to capital management. We returned $608 million of capital to investors in the fourth quarter, comprising special and regular dividends of $412 million and share repurchases of $196 million. Earlier in the year, we returned an additional $363 million made up of dividends and share repurchases, bringing the total for the year to $971 million.

轉向資本管理。我們在第四季度向投資者返還了 6.08 億美元的資本，其中包括 4.12 億美元的特別股息和常規股息以及 1.96 億美元的股票回購。今年早些時候，我們透過股息和股票回購額外返還了 3.63 億美元，使全年總額達到 9.71 億美元。

Besides bringing more than -- beside returning more than 10% of stockholders' equity to investors, we grew stockholders' equity by 15.6%. We continue to thoughtfully manage our capital position, which is further evidenced by our historically low financial leverage ratio of 22.6% with the next scheduled maturity in 2037.

除了向投資者返還超過 10% 的股東權益外，我們還使股東權益增加了 15.6%。我們繼續審慎地管理我們的資本狀況，這進一步體現在我們歷史性的低財務槓桿率 22.6% 上，下一筆債務將於 2037 年到期。

In summary, 2025 was an outstanding year with record top line, both gross and net premiums written of $15.1 billion and $12.7 billion, respectively. Underwriting income of $1.2 billion, net investment income of $1.4 billion, operating income of $1.7 billion, and net income of $1.8 billion. These record results culminated in growth in book value per share before and after dividends and share repurchases of 26.7% and 16.4%, respectively.

總而言之，2025 年是業績斐然的一年，總收入創歷史新高，毛保費和淨保費分別達 151 億美元和 127 億美元。承銷收入 12 億美元，淨投資收入 14 億美元，營業收入 17 億美元，淨收入 18 億美元。這些創紀錄的業績最終使每股帳面價值在分紅和股票回購前後分別成長了 26.7% 和 16.4%。

Rob, I'll stop there and pass it back to you.

羅布，我就到此為止，然後把任務交還給你。

All right. Thanks, Richie. That's tough to follow. So just a couple of more sound bites and then as promised on to Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，里奇。這很難理解。那麼，再聽幾句簡短的發言，然後就依約定進入問答環節。

Regarding the top line, First off, unpacking that a little bit for folks. I think it's worth noting that October and November from a growth perspective, were particularly disappointing, I would call it flattish. And December, I don't have the net number in front of me. I left it in my office, unfortunately, but the net and the growth track pretty closely and the GWP was up 7% in December.

關於最重要的部分，首先，我來為大家簡單解釋一下。我覺得值得注意的是，從成長的角度來看，10 月和 11 月的表現尤其令人失望，可以說是停滯不前。至於十二月的具體數字，我手邊沒有。很遺憾，我把它落在辦公室裡了，但淨值和成長率的走勢非常接近，12 月的全球淨利潤成長了 7%。

So I would caution people not to lead to the conclusion that what you saw for the quarter is the new reality. I think it's quite the contrary in all likelihood. And to that end, early returns on January, again, we haven't even gotten to the end of the month, but we are seeing some encouraging signs as it relates to the top line there.

因此，我要提醒大家不要得出這樣的結論：本季所看到的現象就是新的現實。我認為情況很可能恰恰相反。為此，1 月的初步結果顯示，雖然還沒到月底，但就營收而言，我們已經看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。

You would have seen the rate ex comp just a little bit over 7%. I would tell you that they are -- given what we're seeing in some of the more recent years, granted it's early, but how they seem to be developing out, we are not feeling across the board the same level of pressure to keep pushing on rate. I think we will continue to be diligent. We will continue to stay on top of it. We are not interested in our margins eroding, but we think that we're in a pretty good place, and we are looking at that carefully.

你會看到不含競爭對手的利率略高於 7%。我會告訴你，就我們近幾年所看到的而言，雖然現在下結論還為時過早，但就它們的發展趨勢來看，我們並沒有感受到普遍存在著同樣的壓力去繼續提高利率。我認為我們會繼續保持勤勉。我們將繼續密切關注此事。我們不希望利潤率下降，但我們認為我們目前的狀況相當不錯，我們正在認真審視這一點。

The expense ratio, again, I'm not going to do a deep dive on that. Rich touched on it already. But I would tell you that the 28.2% -- excuse me, a very comfortable number. That having been said, we are going to be making some pretty meaningful investments some we've already made, but we're going to be leaning into it a bit harder, both on the tech side and the broader banner, both data, AI, et cetera, and that will come at a price, but we're confident that these are going to be investments that generate very good returns.

至於費用率，我不會深入探討。Rich已經提過了。但我要告訴你，28.2%——抱歉，這是一個非常令人欣慰的數字。話雖如此，我們將會進行一些意義重大的投資，其中一些我們已經進行了投資，但我們將更加努力地投入其中，無論是在技術方面還是更廣泛的領域，包括數據、人工智慧等等，這都需要付出代價，但我們相信這些投資將會帶來非常好的回報。

I think one of the things that's worth noting about this organization, and it's something that we talk about from time to time is the consistency of the results. We are not an organization that looks to have a lumpy performance. We are an organization that is very focused on hitting base hits every day consistently.

我認為這個組織值得注意的一點，也是我們不時會談到的一點，就是其結果的穩定性。我們不是業績表現不穩定的組織。我們是一個非常注重每天穩定擊出安打的組織。

From our experience, assuming that one of the leading goals is to build book value through making a good underwriting margin, we look to manage volatility through thick and thin. So we are very pleased with the results that we've delivered in the quarter and the year. But again, part of what distinguishes us is the consistency of those results.

根據我們的經驗，假設主要目標之一是透過獲得良好的承保利潤率來增加帳面價值，我們將努力在順境和逆境中管理波動性。因此，我們對本季和本年度所取得的業績非常滿意。但話說回來，我們與眾不同的地方之一就是這些結果的一致性。

Rich talked about the investment portfolio. I would just highlight that the AA- is teetering on almost becoming a AA. And in addition to that, yes, while we have pushed the duration out to 3.0, neutral for us is probably closer to just inside of 4. If you look at the average duration of our loss reserves or I should say the average life of our loss reserves. Still, room if you compare what's rolling off the portfolio over the foreseeable, call it, give or take, 4, 6 is coming off, and we're still able to put money to work, you call it 5.

Rich談到了投資組合。我想強調的是，AA- 幾乎就要變成 AA 了。此外，雖然我們已經將持續時間延長到了 3.0，但對我們來說，中性狀態可能更接近 4。如果你看一下我們損失準備金的平均持續時間，或者我應該說，我們損失準備金的平均壽命。不過，如果你比較一下在可預見的未來投資組合中哪些部分會退出，那麼還有空間，大約有 4、6 項資產即將退出，而我們仍然能夠讓資金發揮作用，你可以稱之為 5。

So when you look at the situation, the business is really firing on all cylinders. We are generating very strong returns. We already had a surplus even after the capital management of capital that would be measured in 10 figures. And quite frankly, given the returns and the market conditions, well, we would love to have an opportunity to put the capital to work right now, we're generating capital more quickly, and we can utilize it, and you should expect us to continue to look for thoughtful ways to return the excess capital to those that it belongs, that being our shareholders.

所以從整體情況來看，這家公司真的火力全開。我們獲得了非常可觀的回報。即使經過資本管理，我們仍然擁有十位數的盈餘。坦白說，考慮到目前的收益和市場狀況，我們非常希望有機會立即將資金投入使用。我們正在更快地創造資金，並且能夠充分利用這些資金。你們應該期待我們繼續尋找周全的方法，將多餘的資金回饋給它所屬的人，也就是我們的股東。

So I will pause there. And Kevin, at this time, if we could please open it up for questions.

我就先說到這裡吧。凱文，現在我們能否請大家提問？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Okay. Kevin, you run a tight ship, one question per person, all right. We'll see if anybody pays attention.

好的。凱文，你管理很嚴格，每人只能提一個問題，懂嗎？我們看看有沒有人注意到。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, Elyse. Good afternoon.

你好，伊莉絲。午安.

Hi. Thanks, good evening. I thought he said one question and one follow-up, but we'll see.

你好。謝謝，晚上好。我以為他只會提一個問題和一個後續問題，但我們拭目以待。

I guess, my first question was just in terms of premium growth. Rob, I appreciate the color on October, November, and then also on January. But just given your view of the market, right, your -- just the growth you saw in the quarter, I think you also said, right, that there is probably perhaps less of a need to continue to push for the same amount of price. How are you seeing this all translating into premium growth, I guess, with your expectation that '26 is better than the fourth quarter, maybe weaker than the full year '25? How does this all come together in your mind?

我想，我的第一個問題只是關於保費成長方面的問題。羅布，我很喜歡十月、十一月以及一月的色彩。但就您對市場的看法而言，對吧，就您在本季看到的成長而言，我想您也說過，對吧，或許不再需要繼續爭取同樣的價格了。我猜想，您認為這一切將如何轉化為高端產品的成長？您預計 2026 年第四季會比第四季好，但可能會比 2025 年全年弱一些。你覺得這一切是如何連結的？

I think it's likely that the insurance activities will primary and perhaps an excess. We'll likely do better than what the total number was in the fourth quarter. I think that the reinsurance marketplace, some version of history may be repeating itself. A little early to declare that, but it would seem like the table is being set.

我認為保險活動很可能以主要保險為主，或許還會有超額保險。我們第四季的業績很可能會比總數更好。我認為再保險市場，某種程度上的歷史可能正在重演。現在下結論還為時過早，但看起來一切似乎都在籌備之中。

And then I guess my second question is on the expense ratio. You guys guided to comfortably below 30% in '26. It sounds like '26, based on commentary, you described it like an investment year if saying that correctly, you can correct me if I'm wrong. So would you expect like the AI and the tech type investments, I guess, would be higher in '26 and then we start to see a return on those investments in '27? Or how are you thinking through the moving pieces there?

那麼，我的第二個問題是關於費用率的。你們在 2026 年成功地將這一比例控制在了 30% 以下。根據評論來看，2026 年似乎是個投資年，如果我理解正確的話，請指正。所以你認為人工智慧和科技領域的投資在 2026 年會更高，然後在 2027 年開始看到這些投資的回報嗎？或者，你是如何考慮其中各種複雜因素的？

I think it's exactly what Rich and I alluded to that we are going to be making meaningful investments in '26, and I expect we will continue to make meaningful investments in '27.

我認為這正是我和 Rich 所暗示的，我們將在 2026 年進行有意義的投資，而且我預計我們將在 2027 年繼續進行有意義的投資。

I mean, this space, and it's in part what I was alluding to earlier in the call, Elyse, I just did it in a very clumsy way, was that this is a trajectory of how the tools are coming to be available and how we, as an organization, are adopting them. And it's not a one and done. This is just an ongoing process.

我的意思是，這個領域，也是我之前在通話中提到的一部分，伊莉絲，我剛才表達得非常笨拙，那就是這些工具是如何變得可用的，以及我們作為一個組織是如何採用它們的軌跡。而且這並非一次性事件。這只是一個持續進行的過程。

So do I think that when are the benefits going to show up? I would like to think that we're going to start to see benefits certainly in '27, and I think it will scale from there. But it's going to -- it certainly does take some time because it's not just you drop it in, it's a more complicated process than that.

那麼，你認為這些好處什麼時候才能顯現出來呢？我希望我們能在 2027 年開始看到成效，而且我認為它會從那時開始逐步擴大。但這確實需要一些時間，因為這不僅僅是把它放進去那麼簡單，而是一個比這更複雜的過程。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks for the questions. Have a good evening.

謝謝大家的提問。祝你晚上愉快。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

Hi, Tracy. Good evening.

你好，特蕾西。晚安.

Hey, good evening. I always appreciate hearing your market commentary. You sounded it's had more constructive on workers' comp. You were mentioning that while it's not rosy now, California is coming to grips. But if we zoom out of California, one of the large brokers had said at their Investor Day that medical inflation is rampant and it'll show up in rate. Are you seeing something similar?

嘿，晚上好。我一直很欣賞您對市場的評論。聽起來你對工傷賠償問題提出了更多建設性的意見。你剛才提到，雖然現在情況並不樂觀，但加州正在逐步適應。但如果我們把目光從加州移開，一家大型經紀公司在其投資者日上表示，醫療通膨十分猖獗，這將反映在利率上。你遇到的情況也類似嗎？

I mean, can you also comment about the reduction in premiums just in 4Q, if that was largely exposure based?

我的意思是，您能否也談談第四季度保費下降的情況，如果這主要是由於風險敞口造成的？

Yeah. So a couple of things there. So first off, as far as medical trends and how that ties in with severity, I think that's something that we've been talking about at least as long as we've been talking about auto liability. And I think it's finally coming into focus for many.

是的。所以，有兩件事需要說明。首先，就醫療趨勢及其與嚴重程度的關係而言，我認為我們至少從開始討論汽車責任問題起，就一直在討論這個問題。我認為很多人終於開始明白這一點了。

From our perspective, we think the medical costs. And just quite frankly, claims activity in general within the space of workers' comp has been somewhat artificially suppressed because of how it gets -- the benefits get priced and reimbursement gets priced in many, many states.

從我們的角度來看，我們認為醫療費用。坦白說，由於許多州對福利和賠償金的定價方式，工傷賠償領域的索賠活動總體上受到了一定程度的人為抑制。

Regarding our growth in the quarter, it was primarily exposure based where we -- as there were certain pockets where we didn't see the opportunity at those rates.

關於本季我們的成長，主要取決於我們在某些​​領域的投資機會——因為在某些領域，我們認為當時的利率沒有這樣的機會。

Got it. And also, in your press release, you were talking about exceeding 15% ROE and maybe 15% not new, that's a longer-term goal throughout the cycle. And some estimates are well above that. How should we think about a nearer-term ROE given your comments about returning excess capital?

知道了。另外，在你們的新聞稿中，你們提到要超過 15% 的 ROE，而且 15% 可能不是新的目標，而是整個週期的長期目標。有些估計值遠高於此。鑑於您關於返還超額資本的評論，我們應該如何看待近期淨資產收益率？

I think that we believe that the company is firing on all cylinders at the moment. And we got a lot of momentum, and that momentum is both on the underwriting side as well as the investment side, so I can't promise you that the return will be this or that.

我認為我們相信公司目前正處於全面運作狀態。我們獲得了很大的發展勢頭，這種勢頭既體現在承銷方面，也體現在投資方面，所以我不能向你保證回報會是多少。

But I can tell you that this is the nature of the business, barring the unforeseen event, and now to a great extent, '26 is almost the results, again, barring the unforeseen event, they're kind of cooked, right, because of how the premium earn through and the way the investment portfolio unfolds.

但我可以告訴你，這就是產業的本質，除非發生不可預見的事件。現在在很大程度上，2026 年的業績幾乎已經確定，同樣，除非發生不可預見的事件，因為保費的賺取方式和投資組合的展開方式，它們基本上已經成定局了，對吧。

So again, I can't sit here and promise you what a return will be. But barring the unforeseen event, it's not that hard to connect the dots, so it should be another very good year. And with every passing day, we're setting the table for '27.

所以，我無法坐在這裡向你保證回報會是多少。但除非發生不可預見的事件，否則不難看出其中的緣由，所以今年應該又會是非常好的一年。隨著時間的流逝，我們正在為 2027 年做好準備。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Motemaden, Evercore.

David Motemaden，Evercore。

Hi, David. Good evening.

你好，大衛。晚安.

You may have to unmute yourself from your end, David.

大衛，你可能需要從你那邊解除靜音。

Hey. Sorry, guys. Can you guys hear me now?

嘿。抱歉各位。你們現在聽得到我說話嗎？

Yeah. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

Yeah, sorry about that. Sorry about that. Just wanted to just go back just on the PYD. And so it looks like a little bit under $11 million in insurance of adverse offset by about $13 million of favorable in reinsurance. Could you just talk a little bit about what is driving the adverse on the insurance side, any different accident years, you would point to just sort of keeping in mind your comment, Rob, on maybe not seeing the same level of pressure to keep pushing on REIT? Just trying to understand that given what's going on on the PYD side in the insurance business.

是啊，真抱歉。抱歉。我只是想回到 PYD。因此，看起來略低於 1,100 萬美元的不利保險賠償被約 1,300 萬美元的有利再保險賠償所抵消。您能否談談保險方面不利因素的驅動因素，以及哪些年份的事故情況有所不同？羅布，您之前說過，可能沒有看到同樣的壓力來繼續推動 REIT 的發展，您能否指出這一點？我只是想了解一下，考慮到保險業 PYD 方面的情況。

Yeah. So if you don't mind maybe -- I don't have the answers in front of me just because in the scheme of $18 billion-point-something of reserves, I didn't do a deep dive on the $11 million. But if you wouldn't mind, we'll have Karen and/or Rich a follow-up with you tomorrow, and we'll give through all the detail that we're able to.

是的。所以，如果您不介意的話——我手頭上沒有答案，因為在 180 億美元多的儲備金中，我沒有對 1100 萬美元進行深入研究。如果您不介意的話，我們明天會安排 Karen 和/或 Rich 與您聯繫，並盡可能提供所有細節。

Got it. Okay. That would be great. And then also, just trying to get the right jump-off point on the expense ratio. Rich, I think you mentioned a nonrecurring benefit for commission-related accruals that helped the expense ratio this quarter. Could you size that benefit?

知道了。好的。那太好了。此外，也試著找出費用率的正確起點。Rich，我想你曾提過佣金相關應計款項的非經常性收益，這有助於降低本季的費用率。能估算一下這種收益嗎？

Sure, that was about 30 basis points impact on the expense ratio.

沒錯，這會對費用率產生大約 30 個基點的影響。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

鮑勃·黃，摩根士丹利。

Hi, Bob. Good evening.

嗨，鮑伯。晚安.

Good evening. Thank you for just the detailed commentary there. Maybe just a follow-up on pricing and what you said about pricing trend in casualty. I understand that some lines are softening. But you -- are there any lines of business right now where you feel within casualty or you feel the pricing trend is beginning to not make sense anymore. In other words, are there any lines of business where you feel like you might need to start cutting exposure as we go forward into 2026 and 2027?

晚安.非常感謝您提供的詳細評論。或許可以就定價問題以及您之前提到的意外險定價趨勢做個後續討論。我了解到有些線條正在變得柔和。但您—目前在意外險領域，您是否覺得某些業務線的定價趨勢已經開始變得不合理了？換句話說，您認為在 2026 年和 2027 年，有哪些業務領域可能需要開始削減投資？

Yeah. I mean, auto liability would be one where if you look at what our top line is and relative to our rate, we are clearly shrinking the business from an exposure perspective. So that would probably be a leading example.

是的。我的意思是，汽車責任險就是一個例子，如果你看一下我們的總收入和費率，你會發現從風險敞口的角度來看，我們顯然正在縮小業務規模。所以這或許算是個典型的例子。

Got it. And then in other businesses, you don't feel the other lines of business are as bad or as obvious. Is that a fair statement?

知道了。而在其他行業，你卻不會覺得其他業務線的情況那麼糟或那麼明顯。這種說法公平嗎？

We certainly have some concerns and reservations about some of the professional lines that I alluded to earlier. And I think that also, we don't do a lot of it. So it doesn't really move the needle for us in a huge way, but the large account property stuff, the Sheraton Laird stuff, we're that's getting pretty tight.

對於我之前提到的一些專業方面，我們確實有一些擔憂和保留。而且我認為，我們在這方面做得還不夠多。所以這對我們來說並沒有產生巨大的影響，但是大客戶物業方面，例如喜來登萊爾德酒店，我們的競爭越來越激烈了。

Got it. I really appreciate that. Thank you. My follow-up is your -- the next stage of the AI growth. It is very clear that you're really leaning into the capabilities here. I think previously, you've talked about early stages of hybrid model where both the group-wide and individual tools can be implemented. And then that's been -- like, are there any things going into the rest of the year and next year where you feel that are somewhat of a low-hanging fruit where the payoff realization can happen relatively quickly? Or are there any specific capabilities you feel that are more closer to reality in today's environment that gets you really excited?

知道了。我非常感謝。謝謝。我的後續問題是──人工智慧發展的下一個階段。很明顯，你在這裡充分發揮了自身的能力。我認為您之前曾談到混合模式的早期階段，在這個階段既可以實施群體層面的工具，也可以實施個人層面的工具。那麼，接下來的問題就是──在今年剩下的時間和明年，有沒有什麼事情是你覺得比較容易實現的，可以相對快速地獲得回報？或者，您認為在當今環境下，有哪些具體的能力更接近現實，讓您感到非常興奮？

I think probably what is underway now if we focus on the underwriting side, we can talk about claims separately. But on the underwriting side, what's here and now and happening is on the intake side, where we are able to utilize certain technologies, and they are enabling us to increase our efficiency dramatically. So we are able to get to more business and we are able to effectively prioritize.

我認為，如果我們專注於承保方面，我們可以單獨討論理賠問題。但在核保方面，目前的情況是，在核保環節，我們能夠利用某些技術，這些技術使我們能夠大幅提高效率。因此，我們能夠開展更多業務，並且能夠有效地確定優先事項。

Got it, really appreciate the call. Thank you very much.

收到，非常感謝您的來電。非常感謝。

Yeah. So said differently, we -- people's time is utilized much more effectively.

是的。換句話說，我們──人們的時間得到了更有效的利用。

Okay, got it. Thank you. Really appreciate the time. Thank you very much.

好的，明白了。謝謝。非常感謝您抽出時間。非常感謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，瑞銀集團。

Hey, Brian. Good evening.

嘿，布萊恩。晚安.

A reminder to unmute yourself, Brian.

布萊恩，提醒你取消靜音。

There we go. Now, I'm unmuted. Hey, Rob. So two questions here. First, Rob, I wanted to dive into your comment about maybe laying off rate a little bit, but keeping margins, I think, is what you also said. And I'm wondering if that implies you think that trend is starting to moderate some here. And then as we look into 2026, that maybe loss picks are kind of stable then if you don't want margin to deteriorate?

好了。現在，我的麥克風已解除靜音。嘿，羅布。這裡有兩個問題。首先，羅布，我想深入探討你關於或許可以稍微降低利率的評論，但保持利潤率，我想，這也是你之前提到的。我想知道這是否意味著您認為這種趨勢在這裡開始有所緩和。展望 2026 年，如果你不想利潤率下降，那麼虧損選擇或許會比較穩定？

So my take on that is it's premature to reach any conclusions with confidence, but some of the activity that we are seeing or lack of activity in some of the more recent years would suggest that we're in a comfortable place. I think as we've discussed in the past, Brian, a trend is a moving target. So I don't think it's that we take our foot off the pedal, but maybe the foot doesn't have to be stepping down on the pedal quite as hard selectively.

所以我認為現在就自信地得出任何結論還為時過早，但是近年來我們看到的一些活動或缺乏活動表明，我們處於一個比較安全的狀態。布萊恩，我認為正如我們過去討論過的那樣，趨勢是一個不斷變化的目標。所以我覺得問題不在於我們是否放鬆了對踏板的踩踏，而是我們是否不必像以前那樣用力地踩踏。

Got you. And then just with respect to loss ratio loss picks?

抓到你了。那麼，就損失率而言，損失選擇又如何呢？

I'm sorry, I didn't hear you. I beg your pardon?

對不起，我沒聽清楚。請再說一次？

No. I mean, with respect to your kind of jumping off point here with respect to loss picks, if you're going to keep margins stable and it sounds like your expense ratio is going to be flat to up a little bit. It would imply that loss ratio is going to be pretty stable, too.

不。我的意思是，就你目前在選擇虧損股票時的出發點而言，如果你要保持利潤率穩定，而且聽起來你的費用率將保持不變或略有上升。這也意味著損失率將相當穩定。

We are looking to preserve our margins to the best of our ability as long as the market will allow us to, and right now, we think we can do that. That's greater more easily go to the insurance business.

我們希望盡最大努力保持利潤率，只要市場允許，而目前我們認為我們可以做到這一點。這樣比較容易進入保險業。

I think the reinsurance marketplace is probably going to become more challenged more quickly in general.

我認為再保險市場總體上可能會更快面臨更多挑戰。

That makes sense. And then just quickly going back to your comments about distribution and distribution competing with you a little bit now, and customers want simplicity. Does that mean that perhaps one you may lean into a little bit more utilizing MGAs and/or buying MGAs and that maybe that's a quicker way to kind of get to where you want to get to with respect to distribution?

這很有道理。然後，我快速回到你關於分銷的評論，以及分銷現在與你之間存在一些競爭，而客戶想要的是簡單。這是否意味著，您或許可以更多地利用 MGA 和/或購買 MGA，而這或許是實現您在分銷方面目標的一種更快的方式？

No. The short answer is, I don't think we're going to necessarily be leaning into or acquiring. Generally speaking, I think as we've torqued you all in the past, we have a real caution around delegated authority. And quite frankly, the valuations of some of these businesses, we think have gotten to the point where oftentimes it's irrational. And there's a lot of private equity money still trying to figure out how they're going to make it all work. But in the meantime, we're pleased to continue to partner with traditional distribution.

不。簡而言之，我認為我們不一定會加大投入或進行收購。總的來說，我認為正如我們過去一直強調的那樣，我們對授權委託確實非常謹慎。坦白說，我們認為其中一些企業的估值已經達到了不合理的程度。還有大量私募股權資金仍在努力弄清楚如何讓這一切運作起來。但同時，我們很高興能繼續與傳統經銷商合作。

But I think the point is it's not lost on us that some of the traditional distribution is looking to have the pen or, in some ways, have a different relationship with capital. We're aware of that. We are responding to it. And it also means that we're thinking about distribution maybe a little bit in a way that we wouldn't have thought about it five years ago.

但我認為關鍵在於，我們並沒有忽略一些傳統經銷商希望掌握話語權，或在某些方面與資本建立不同的關係。我們明白這一點。我們正在對此作出回應。這也意味著，我們現在對分銷的思考方式可能和五年前我們想的有所不同。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks, Brian. Have a good evening.

謝謝你，布萊恩。祝你晚上愉快。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, Alex. Good evening.

嗨，Alex。晚安.

A reminder to unmute yourself on your end, Alex. *6 if you're on the phone.

提醒一下，Alex，請​​你打開麥克風。 *6（如果你正在打電話）。

Hey, sorry about that. All right. So first one I had is just a follow-up on the technology improvements you're working on. How would you characterize the way you're thinking about that over the medium term? Is that something that as you bring the expense ratio down, some of it can drop to the bottom line, or is this something that is going to potentially just help to make it more competitive? You might be able to get back on price a little bit, get a little more competitive and improve growth. I'd just be interested in how you're approaching those investments.

嘿，真抱歉。好的。我的第一個問題是關於您正在進行的技術改進的後續跟進。從中長期來看，您如何看待這個問題？降低費用率後，部分成本能否直接轉換為利潤？或者，這只會提高企業的競爭力？你或許可以稍微降低價格，提高競爭力，促進成長。我只是對你如何進行這些投資感興趣。

I think the answer is all of the above. I mean, ultimately, we certainly are looking to have efficiency and savings. And how much of that we hold on to versus how much gets passed on to the customer in part depends on the marketplace and quite frankly, competitors what they are doing and what kind of efficiencies they're capturing and what they're passing on to customer.

我認為答案是以上所有選項。我的意思是，歸根究底，我們當然是希望提高效率、節省成本。而我們保留多少利潤，又有多少利潤傳遞給客戶，部分取決於市場，坦白說，也取決於競爭對手的策略、他們所獲得的效率以及他們傳遞給客戶的利潤。

So look, when the day is all done, I appreciate that a lot of the focus may be around pricing and margin. But I would suggest to you that a lot of these tools, it's not just about dollars saved. It's also about value creation. And I think that, that's an additional way to consider these tools, how they will be incorporated and how they will attack the business that the three of us work for.

所以你看，一天結束的時候，我知道大家的關注點可能都集中在定價和利潤率。但我認為，許多這類工具的作用不只是省錢。它也關乎價值創造。我認為，這是考慮這些工具的另一種方式，即它們將如何融入我們三人所經營的企業中，以及它們將如何發揮作用。

That is helpful. Thanks. And I guess just looking at the growth and thinking about increased competition. I was just interested if you could talk about to any degree you're seeing a flow back into admitted at this point? Like is that something that's affecting the growth rate at all, or is it more just competition within the E&S market?

那很有幫助。謝謝。我想，看看成長情況，再想想日益激烈的競爭。我只是好奇，您能否談談目前您是否看到有一定程度的新生入學人數回升？這會影響成長率，還是說這只是環境和社會市場內部的競爭？

I would tell you in the very, very small end of town as far as account size. You might see a standard market slip in there a little bit. But by and large, they are, for the most part, for the moment, staying within their swim lane. That having been said, national carriers in particular, but some of the regional carriers on the standard side. Within their swim lane, they are being remarkably aggressive at this stage of the game.

就帳戶規模而言，我可以告訴你，這在當地算是非常非常小的帳戶了。你可能會看到一些正常的市場波動。但總的來說，目前他們大多還是安分守己，不越雷池一步。也就是說，尤其是國家航空公司，但有些區域航空公司也屬於標準範疇。在比賽的這個階段，他們在各自的泳道內表現得非常具有攻擊性。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hi, Rob. Good evening.

嗨，羅布。晚安.

Hey, thanks. Good evening. Yeah, first question, could you just unpack some of your comments on the property cat environment leaking into casualty dynamics a bit? Just curious how that is playing out, how meaningful you think it is? And if you think the strong net investment income contributions are contributing to that as well?

嘿，謝謝。晚安.是的，第一個問題，您能否詳細解釋一下您對財產巨災環境如何影響意外事故動態的一些看法？我只是好奇這件事的進展如何，你覺得它有多重要？如果您認為強勁的淨投資收益也是造成這種情況的原因之一，那麼請問您認為呢？

The answer is, I think we'll know more when we all have an opportunity to reflect on Q1 and see who did what. But my sense is that, again, a lot of people that have a lot of capital and they feel pressure to put it to work, and they're trying to hit budgets and so on.

我認為，當我們都有機會反思第一季的情況，看看誰做了什麼之後，我們就會知道更多了。但我的感覺是，許多擁有大量資本的人感到有壓力要讓資本發揮作用，他們努力完成預算等等。

And as a result of that, when the premium is coming in short on the property cat, they're looking to try and figure out what other levers they can pull. And casualty would appear to be one of them or a liability, including the professional. So we'll have to see over time.

因此，當物業巨災的溢價不足時，他們會想辦法找出其他可以利用的手段。而意外事故似乎就是其中之一，或者說是一種責任，包括專業人士的責任。所以，我們只能拭目以待了。

Do I think investment income is a component of it? Yeah, probably. Can I quantify for you how much is one versus the other? No, not with any confidence. But I do think that -- I think that one proved to be more competitive. And from our perspective, it seemed to spill over into the casualty lines more than we would have anticipated.

我認為投資收益是其中的一個組成部分嗎？嗯，大概吧。我能量化一下這兩者之間的差異嗎？不，我一點信心都沒有。但我確實認為——我認為那一個更有競爭力。從我們的角度來看，傷亡人數似乎比我們預想的還要多。

Now having said that, we buy a lot of reinsurance, and that's not a bad thing for us. Where we assume we'll deal with it just as we have in the past. Our colleagues are interested in making money not writing business.

話雖如此，我們買了許多再保險，這對我們來說並非壞事。我們以為我們會像過去一樣處理這件事。我們的同事只想著賺錢，而不是寫商業計劃書。

Thanks for all that color, Rob. That's helpful. The follow-up on home insurance. I think you mentioned Berkley One is one of the good places to grow right now where you see some opportunity. Curious of your views on the excess profit discussions from regulators and particularly the New York state in the -- with regards to the two-year look back. Is that something you think is rational? And do you have any views on the rationality of that?

羅布，謝謝你帶來的繽紛色彩。那很有幫助。房屋保險後續事宜。我想你提到過，柏克萊一號是目前發展前景不錯的地方之一，那裡有很多機會。我對監管機構，特別是紐約州關於超額利潤的討論，特別是關於兩年回顧期的看法，很感興趣。你認為這是理性的嗎？你對此有何看法？這是否合理？

I think that regulators tend to focus on a moment in time, and I think that they need to look at historical results, particularly given the volatility that exists in the homeowners line in particular.

我認為監管機構往往只關注某一時刻的情況，而他們應該關注歷史結果，尤其考慮到房屋保險業務的波動性。

I think that as far as Berkley One goes, it's less high on a regulator's radar screen perhaps because, for the most part, regulators don't give a s*** about rich people.

我認為，就伯克利一號而言，它之所以沒有引起監管機構的足夠重視，或許是因為，在大多數情況下，監管機構根本不在乎富人。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yaron Kinar, Mizuho.

Yaron Kinar，瑞穗。

Thank you. Good evening Can you hear me?

謝謝。晚上好，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can.

是的，我們可以。

Great. Thanks for taking my question here. In insurance, I'm trying to connect the dots. It sounds like the slowdown opinions in October, November was more driven by increased competition. And I think you're so cautioning not to read too much into that. Is that because you see competition flattening out here? Or are you seeing greater appetite emerging for the company itself to go after more premiums?

偉大的。感謝您接受我的問題。在保險業，我試著把各個環節連結起來。聽起來，10月和11月的經濟放緩觀點更多是受到競爭加劇的影響。我認為你是在提醒大家不要過度解讀這件事。是因為你覺得這裡的競爭趨於平緩嗎？或者您看到公司本身對獲取更多保費的意願越來越強烈？

I think the point that we are trying to make is a couple of fold. One is that October and November are just two months, and we would -- while they sort of shine brightly through in a quarter, we would caution people to latching on to that too much, particularly given the data point to December and what we are seeing in January. In addition to that, we offered the comment earlier that from our perspective, there are certain pockets of our portfolio, certain parts of the market where given the early returns on the reserves, we are thinking that perhaps it is a more comfortable place than we appreciated.

我認為我們想要表達的觀點有兩面。一方面，10 月和 11 月只是兩個月，雖然它們在一個季度中表現突出，但我們還是要提醒大家不要過分看重這一點，特別是考慮到 12 月的數據以及我們在 1 月份看到的情況。除此之外，我們之前也曾評論說，從我們的角度來看，鑑於儲備金的早期回報，我們投資組合中的某些部分、市場的某些部分，我們認為它們可能比我們之前認為的更安全。

Okay. Thank you. And then I had another question on the tech investments here, specifically on the AI side, machine learning. I've always thought of that as being very data-driven. And I'm just trying to think how this plays out in a company that has always prided itself in having 50 different operating units plus/minus. How do you consolidate that run that efficiently and have the data to apply across the 50 units?

好的。謝謝。然後我還有一個關於這裡技術投資的問題，特別是人工智慧和機器學習的投資。我一直認為這是非常以數據為導向的。我只是想看看，對於一家一直以擁有大約 50 個不同的營運部門而自豪的公司來說，這將會產生怎樣的影響。如何有效率地整合運行數據，並將其應用於 50 個單元？

Just because we have more than 50 different businesses doesn't mean that we're not able to aggregate and use the data amongst the businesses and make it available to the businesses within the group. So I think the notion perhaps that you had that each one is a self-contained island, and there is no way for them to work together on things such as data or for us to aggregate or for us to build tools and try and leverage them across the broader organization. I would encourage you to maybe think about that a little differently.

雖然我們擁有 50 多個不同的業務部門，但這並不意味著我們不能匯總和使用這些業務部門的數據，並將其提供給集團內的其他業務部門。所以我認為你可能認為每個部門都是一個獨立的孤島，它們之間無法在數據等方面進行合作，也無法進行數據聚合，更無法構建工具並嘗試在更廣泛的組織內加以利用。我建議你或許可以換個角度去思考這個問題。

Maybe we can take this offline. I'm trying to understand how more than the concept of whether you can.

或許我們可以私下討論。我試著理解的不僅僅是「你能不能做到」這個概念本身。

Sure, yeah. We would be very happy to try and give you a little more color. Please just call at your convenience.

當然，是的。我們非常樂意嘗試為您增添一些色彩。請您在方便的時候致電。

Appreciate it. Thank you very much.

謝謝。非常感謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

Great, can you hear me?

很好，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, sir, we can. Good evening.

是的，先生，我們可以。晚安.

Hi, Rob. I'd like to -- on the premium question. In the past, you've -- let's say, going back two years ago, your outlook was for double digit more recently, you had talked about 8% to 10% for the year. Maybe big picture, how are you thinking about 2026 in terms of growth potential because of those kind of disparities between October/November versus December and January? What are you thinking this year?

嗨，羅布。我想——關於高級會員的問題。過去，比如說，兩年前，你的預期是兩位數的成長；而最近，你曾談到今年的成長率為 8% 到 10%。從宏觀角度來看，考慮到十月/十一月與十二月和一月之間的這種差異，您如何看待 2026 年的成長潛力？今年有什麼打算？

I'm thinking that I don't get rewarded for providing estimates and these kind of forward-looking statements. That having been said, from my perspective, as mentioned earlier, I think the insurance business, both excess and primary, should have an opportunity to grow more than what you saw us do in the quarter. And as I suggested, I think the reinsurance business, while we remain optimistic, we are even more so disciplined, and we can't control the market. So we'll have to see how that unfolds, but that seems to be coming more challenging more quickly.

我認為我提供預測和這類前瞻性陳述並不會得到獎勵。話雖如此，從我的角度來看，正如前面提到的，我認為保險業務，包括超額保險和基本保險，都應該有機會比我們本季所取得的成就成長得更多。正如我之前所說，我認為再保險業務雖然我們仍然保持樂觀，但我們更加謹慎，因為我們無法控制市場。所以我們還得看看事情會如何發展，但這種情況似乎正以更快的速度變得更加嚴峻。

Fair enough. Thanks, Rob. And then maybe just drilling into detail as I look at the net written premium. It looked like short tail lines grew a little more than the others. Could you share with us which areas of short tail that worked out well and --?

很公平。謝謝你，羅伯。然後，我可能會深入研究一下淨保費的細節。看起來短尾線比其他線長得稍微長一些。能否和我們分享哪些短尾關鍵字效果比較好？——？

The big drivers there are A&H as well as our private client business, Berkley One.

主要的驅動因素是 A&H 以及我們的私人客戶業務 Berkley One。

I see. And then --

我懂了。進而--

If you look at the commercial lines piece, particularly some of -- the commercial lines piece is -- it's not worth coming from at all.

如果你看一下商業保險部分，特別是其中一些——商業保險部分——根本不值得從中獲利。

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. And then just the workers' comp piece, you touched on. I guess, it sounded like you were writing fewer accounts because you didn't get the rate you wanted. This was an area about a year ago. There was some excitement just higher risk stuff. So maybe just a little color on what you're seeing.

知道了。這很有道理。然後就是你剛才提到的工傷賠償部分。我猜，聽起來你減少寫稿是因為沒有拿到你想要的稿酬。這是大約一年前的情況。雖然有些刺激，但風險也較高。所以，也許可以為你看到的景象增添一些色彩。

Yeah, we try to bifurcate the fact, Andrew, that there's sort of a more complex, higher hazard as you alluded to versus the Main Street stuff.

是的，安德魯，我們試圖將事實分開來看，正如你所提到的，這裡存在著一種更複雜、風險更高的情況，與普通街道的情況形成對比。

I think the other piece with this, there was not a huge amount, but there was a bit of a timing issue with this as well.

我認為這件事的另一點是，雖然問題不大，但時間安排也存在一些問題。

Richie, you want to talk about that for a minute.

里奇，你想就這件事談談嗎？

Sure. So we had a couple of our operations, if you will, that renewals had transpired at different time periods relative to the fourth quarter of this year so that was the other reason for the change from the decline, if you will, in the workers' comp space.

當然。所以，我們的一些業務，如果你願意這麼說的話，續約發生在與今年第四季不同的時間段，所以這是工傷賠償領域下滑的另一個原因。

I see. So that might reverse a little bit in the next quarter.

我懂了。所以這種情況在下一季可能會逆轉。

Over time, yeah, that's the expectation.

隨著時間的推移，是的，這是人們的預期。

Got it. Thanks a lot.

知道了。多謝。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克爾，美國銀行。

Hey, Josh. Good evening.

嘿，喬許。晚安.

How are you all doing there?

你們那邊一切都好​​嗎？

We're doing okay, thanks. Hopefully you're well.

我們一切都好，謝謝。希望你一切都好。

Good. Thank you. Thank you. So when you think about pricing business, sometimes you imagine that you need a certain amount of rate because loss costs rise at a certain trajectory. Sometimes you need rate because the loss cost trend has changed, and therefore, the way you're pricing it previously needed some correction.

好的。謝謝。謝謝。所以，在考慮業務定價時，有時你會認為你需要一定的費率，因為損失成本會按照一定的軌跡成長。有時你需要調整費率，因為損失成本趨勢發生了變化，因此，你以前的定價方式需要進行一些修正。

As you talk about the softening, we're not really seeing you or any competitors out there really talk about a different loss picking, we're not even seeing it in the paid loss trends, although we haven't seen the fourth quarter triangles yet. Are loss conditions changing beneath the industry's feat right now, or is the industry unable to get the necessary price increases with the general trajectory that one would expect from where losses are supposed to go?

說到市場疲軟，我們並沒有看到你或任何競爭對手真正談論不同的虧損選擇策略，甚至在付費虧損趨勢中也沒有看到，我們還沒有看到第四季度的三角形形態。目前，損失情況是否正在發生變化，導致產業發展受阻？或者，行業是否無法按照預期的損失成長軌跡獲得必要的價格上漲？

Was there a particular part of the market that you were focusing on or it's in general?

您當時關注的是某個特定的市場領域，還是整個市場？

You say something like casualty, that's a very broad class, right? There's a lot of different kinds of casualty out there. So I guess, I mean, we can start broad, but maybe there's something specific going on that you want to highlight?

你說的是傷亡，這是一個非常廣泛的概念，對吧？傷亡的種類有很多種。所以我想，我們可以從寬泛的角度入手，但也許您想重點強調一些具體的事情？

Okay. So here are a couple of sound bites. And if I'm missing the mark, please tell me. But I would tell you that in the excess and umbrella space, it seems like there is a reasonable amount of discipline and trend continues, and we and others are getting that.

好的。以下是一些音頻片段。如果我理解有誤，請告訴我。但我想說的是，在過度消費和傘狀產品領域，似乎存在著相當程度的紀律，而且這種趨勢還在繼續，我們和其他人都看到了這一點。

I think auto liability, as we discussed earlier, continues to be a problem and the marketplace is taking rate, though, I'm not convinced at this stage that it's enough.

我認為，正如我們之前討論的那樣，汽車責任保險仍然是一個問題，市場正在採取措施，但是，我目前還不認為這已經足夠了。

As far as property goes, people have super short memories, and the notion of making sure you have an appropriate cat load I think, is a fading concept. Do you want me to keep going? Or is that enough?

就房產而言，人們的記憶力非常短暫，確保飼養適量貓咪的想法我認為正在逐漸消失。你想讓我繼續嗎？這樣就夠了嗎？

I'm just -- what I'm hearing from you is rate doesn't feel enough. You're not seeing paid trends change in such a way that demand a different view. It's just like, look, things are going at a base we understand, and we're not getting the rate forward, I guess.

我只是——我從你那裡聽到的意思是，這個利率似乎不夠高。付費趨勢並沒有發生足以改變現有觀點的變化。感覺就像，事情是在我們理解的基礎上發展的，但我們無法提前了解情況，我想。

I think what I'm suggesting is, Josh, that different product lines are in different places, and you need to use a pretty fine brush in my opinion. I think that there are certain product lines where I would tell you there is a green light and it would be advisable to try and lean into it more.

喬希，我的意思是，不同的產品線擺放在不同的地方，而且依我之見，你需要使用一把非常細的刷子。我認為在某些產品線上，我可以告訴你完全可以放手一搏，應該加大投入。

There are certain that are amber and there are some that are red. And ultimately, it's -- one makes a judgment as to what do you believe the loss pick is given what you're able to charge, how do you feel about that? And what is your confidence in that. And every day, we go through that process.

有些是琥珀色的，有些是紅色的。最終，這取決於——根據你能收取的費用，你會對損失的選擇做出判斷，你對此有何感想？你對此有多大信心？我們每天都要經歷這個過程。

Obviously, there are certain characteristics such as length of incurred tail that can make it that much more complicated. So I would tell you that from my perspective, there are certain product lines where, again, for the comment I made earlier about rate, what we're feeling as though what we're in a pretty good place, maybe we don't need to be pushing quite so hard on rate.

顯然，某些特徵，例如壓力尾的長度，會使情況變得更加複雜。所以我想說，從我的角度來看，對於某些產品線，就像我之前提到的價格問題一樣，我們感覺我們現在的情況相當不錯，也許我們不需要再那麼努力地去提高價格了。

There are other places where we are dead serious about the rate that we need. And if the choice is you write it, if you don't get -- or get the rate or not, if you don't get the rate, don't write it. That's why you see certain parts of our business exposure-wise shrinking. So it's very difficult to have a one size fits all. But philosophically, that's how we think about the business. I don't know, for like 50 years, and we're still thinking about it that way.

在其他一些地方，我們對所需的利率是非常認真的。如果讓你選擇，要嘛寫，要嘛拿不到稿酬，要嘛拿不到稿酬，那就別寫。這就是為什麼你會看到我們某些業務領域的風險敞口正在縮小。所以很難找到一種適用於所有情況的統一方案。但從哲學角度來說，我們就是這樣看待這個產業的。我不知道，大概50年了，我們還是這麼想。

And are there parts of the market that are earning, let's say, 91% to 94% combined ratio that you could write and you could grow, but that's not good enough? Or are there not these pockets that are worse than your 89% or 87% depending on how you want to call it, but it's just done out there to be found?

市場中是否存在一些部分，比如說，綜合收益率達到 91% 到 94%，你可以投資並發展這些部分，但這還不夠好？或者說，是否存在一些比你所說的 89% 或 87% 更糟糕的情況，只是它們確實存在，等待人們去發現？

Maybe to answer the question a little differently is, please understand we are a return-driven business, not a combined ratio-driven business. We figure out what type of combined we need in order to achieve the return.

或許可以換個角度來回答這個問題：請理解，我們是一家以回報為導向的企業，而不是以綜合比率為導向的企業。我們弄清楚需要哪種類型的組合才能實現預期收益。

Okay. And so there's not a pocket that just are track -- are marginally attractive. I mean look, 2% growth, it's not terrific given what we're used to. But there might be nothing out there for you, I guess.

好的。因此，沒有哪個領域只是賽道——只是略有吸引力。我的意思是，你看，2%的成長率，考慮到我們以往的習慣，這並不算好。但我想，也許根本沒有適合你的工作。

I think that the answer is that there are different parts of the market that are in different places in the cycle. And my colleagues to their credit, understand very clearly what the goal of the exercise is to make money, make good returns, not to issue insurance policies.

我認為答案是，市場的不同部分處於週期中的不同階段。值得稱讚的是，我的同事們非常清楚地理解這項工作的目標是為了賺錢，獲得良好的回報，而不是為了簽發保險單。

And there are certain product lines that are in a moment of transition. In fact, all product lines are in some sense of transition but some more than others. And we are navigating and responding to market conditions and also responding to the data that we have as to how we see the margins that currently we are in place.

某些產品線正處於轉型期。事實上，所有產品線在某種程度上都處於轉型期，但有些轉型程度較高。我們正在根據市場狀況做出調整和應對，同時也會根據我們掌握的數據，對我們目前所處的利潤率做出調整。

Well, thank you for indulging my questions.

非常感謝您耐心解答我的問題。

Thank you, Josh. Have a good evening.

謝謝你，喬許。祝你晚上愉快。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

Great so much. I just wanted to confirm that you can hear me.

太棒了。我只是想確認一下你能聽到我說話。

Yes, sir. Good evening.

是的，先生。晚安.

Fantastic. Hi, Rob. You mentioned -- I just want to go back to the comments where you talked about how reevaluating recent accident years suggests less of a need to push for rate. I know in the past, we've talked about some fame made claim frequency coming in below expectations, and that's actually translated into some reserve releases, lines of business where the claims didn't happen. Is that what you're talking about is this is the same subject?

極好的。嗨，羅布。你提到——我只想回到你之前的評論，你談到重新評估近幾年的事故情況表明，沒有必要再推動費率上漲。我知道過去我們曾討論過一些因名利雙收而導致的索賠頻率低於預期，而這實際上轉化為一些儲備釋放，以及一些索賠並未發生的業務線。你指的是這個嗎？這是同一個問題嗎？

So it's really across the board, where even where there is some tail to it, and we have tail factors and how we would expect it to develop that there are certain early indications that in some of the more recent years, that even the lines that have some tail to it, it would seem as though the underwriting actions and the rate actions are having the impact plus that we had hoped for.

所以情況確實如此，即使在存在一些尾部因素的情況下，以及我們預期其發展趨勢的情況下，也有一些早期跡象表明，在最近幾年，即使是存在一些尾部因素的險種，承保措施和費率措施似乎也產生了我們所希望的影響。

Okay. No, that's very helpful. Is there any way breaking down --?

好的。不，這很有幫助。有什麼辦法可以分解嗎？——？

Just to give you a little bit more, it is not limited to the claims made form. So again, we're not going to get ahead of ourselves, but we're watching it.

為了讓您更清楚地了解情況，它並不局限於已提出的索賠形式。所以，我們不會操之過急，但我們會密切關注事態發展。

Okay. No, that's helpful. I was wondering if there's a way of breaking down whether that's positive emergence on the frequency side or on the severity side?

好的。不，這很有幫助。我想知道是否有辦法區分這是從頻率還是嚴重程度來看的正向變化？

I would invite you to give Rich a call and he can torture you with all kinds of data.

我建議你給里奇打個電話，他可以用各種各樣的數據來折磨你。

Okay. I look forward to it. And last question, does any of that initial more changing viewpoint impact the full year '25 acting your loss picks for the relevant lines?

好的。我很期待。最後一個問題，這些最初不斷變化的觀點是否會對 2025 年全年相關線路的虧損選擇產生影響？

Sorry, could you once more, I beg your pardon there?

抱歉，請再說一遍，再說一遍？

Yeah. So let me rephrase it. If there's more optimism about how these recent years are going, did that show up in the year '25 loss picks for the exposed lines, or did you maintain the loss picks and then just feel less need for pricing?

是的。那我換個說法吧。如果對近幾年的發展趨勢更加樂觀，這種樂觀是否體現在 2025 年對風險敞口線路的虧損預測？或者，您維持了虧損預測，然後只是覺得對定價的需求減少了？

No, we did not touch them.

不，我們沒有碰它們。

Okay, perfect. That is what I wanted to hear. I really appreciate it.

好的，完美。這正是我想要聽到的。我非常感謝。

Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.

凱蒂·薩克斯，自主研究。

Hi, good evening.

您好，晚上好。

Hi, thank you. Just a quick one for me. I just kind of like to break down your philosophy on capital return going into the new year here. I think the size of the buyback this quarter was perhaps a bit higher than expected in the context of some of your commentary last quarter. Was this quarter --

您好，謝謝。我只需要簡單回答一下。我只是想在這裡和你探討你對新年資本回報的概念。我認為，結合您上個季度的一些評論來看，本季的股票回購規模可能略高於預期。這季--

Well, I say last quarter.

嗯，我說是上個季度。

I think you had kind of phrased it as not necessarily seeing like a huge opportunity for buyback, and I recognize that can change over time. So would you say that the 4Q repurchase was opportunistic, or do you anticipate continuing to repurchase at these higher levels as long as you continue to access more capital than you feel you can put to work?

我認為你之前的表述似乎表明你並不認為這是一個巨大的回購機會，我也意識到隨著時間的推移，這種看法可能會改變。那麼，您認為第四季度的股票回購是機會主義行為，還是只要您能持續獲得超出您實際需求的資金，您就預期會繼續以更高的價格進行回購？

Okay. Well, I have good news for you. The gentleman who is the head of our repurchase desk and also the Head of our Capital Management Committee. And I don't know, you probably have some other fancy titles. Do you want to take that one?

好的。我有個好消息要告訴你。這位先生是我們回購部門的負責人，同時也是我們資本管理委員會的負責人。我不知道，你可能還有其他一些花俏的頭銜。你想選那個嗎？

Sure. I think that we're constantly looking what to do our excess capital, how much you generate and how much we can use for various things in our business. So it's really constantly changing opportunities. When the opportunity arose is advantage of it. I can't tell you how and what we'll do on the next day.

當然。我認為我們一直在思考如何處理多餘的資金，我們可以產生多少資金，以及我們可以將多少資金用於我們業務中的各種用途。所以機會真的在不斷變化。機會來了就要抓住它。我無法告訴你第二天我們會怎麼做。

We think that our business returning 20%-plus of capital, which candidly, I'm optimistic that we'll continue to be able to do that. At the moment, it's a pretty good investment from my point of view. So I would expect that we'll continue to look if opportunities present themselves to buy back stock. The alternative is to give stock -- give money back to our shareholders and special dividends.

我們認為我們的業務能夠帶來 20% 以上的資本回報，坦白說，我很樂觀地認為我們能夠繼續做到這一點。就目前來看，從我的角度來看，這是一筆相當不錯的投資。因此，我預計我們會繼續尋找機會回購股票。另一個選擇是發放股票——將資金返還給我們的股東和發放特別股息。

I don't think we have a rule. The judgment as move through the year. And as we look at opportunities and what we're going to do. We still had a huge amount of excess capital that we generate.

我認為我們沒有這樣的規定。隨著一年的進行，判決結果也將隨之改變。當我們審視機會以及我們將要做的事情時。我們仍然擁有大量我們自己產生的剩餘資金。

And one of the things people don't understand is we become a very much more financially conservative company. We've gone from 35% debt to equity to 22% debt to equity. We've got lots of capacity to do lots of things and that gives us a lot of flexibility. So it's not just the cash we generate, it's the balance sheet we have, the risk we have in here and running the business.

人們不理解的一點是，我們變成了一家財務上非常保守的公司。我們的負債權益比已從 35% 降至 22%。我們擁有強大的能力去做很多事情，這給了我們很大的靈活性。所以，重要的不僅是我們產生的現金，還有我們的資產負債表、我們面臨的風險、企業的營運。

Then we look at the opportunities with those things together. And we're a very much more conservative company.

然後我們綜合考慮這些因素所帶來的機會。我們是一家非常保守的公司。

So I can't give you an answer, but I can tell you where -- we have lots of opportunities. And our job is to run the business is now we own the whole thing and how would we use our count most effectively for the owners of the business. And we'll make that decision on a constantly evolving and changing basis.

所以我無法給你答案，但我可以告訴你——我們有很多機會。而我們的工作就是經營這家企業，現在我們擁有了整個企業，我們將如何最有效地利用我們的資源為企業所有者服務？我們將根據不斷變化的情況做出決定。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor.

Ryan Tunis，坎托爾。

Hey, good evening, Rob. Yeah, first question just on the investment fund returns, bit a bit mix. Just curious, maybe you could go into a little bit more detail there. Is that individual fund-specific, just I don't know, peel back the onion a little bit on what's going on in the investment funds.

嘿，晚上好，羅布。是的，第一個問題是關於投資基金的回報，情況有點複雜。我只是好奇，能否再詳細解釋一下？那是不是個別基金特有的情況？我不知道，需要稍微深入了解一下投資基金的運作。

Long story short, the noise that you saw in the financial category was primarily driven by one fund, and it was a disappointing result. And quite frankly, it's been a disappointing relationship. We do not expect that to be the norm going forward.

簡而言之，你在金融類別中看到的波動主要由一檔基金引起，而結果令人失望。坦白說，這段關係令人失望。我們預期這不會成為未來的常態。

Sure. Got it. And then I guess just a follow-up. Yeah, here in the aftermarket, a few of these big managed care companies like you and are getting woodshed and these stocks on Medicare Advantage of CMS proposal on 2027 rate increases of supposed legs being flat. Apparently, they need more than that. If memory serves, workers' comp pricing has some relationship to these Medicare price indications. I don't exactly remember how that works. Maybe you could refresh my memory.

當然。知道了。然後我想再補充一點。是的，在二級市場，像你這樣的幾家大型醫療管理公司正在遭受重創，這些股票因為 CMS 提出的 2027 年 Medicare Advantage 費率上漲提案而受到打擊，而該提案聲稱其增長勢頭將停滯不前。顯然，他們需要的不只這些。如果我沒記錯的話，工傷賠償金的定價與這些醫療保險價格指標有一定的關係。我不太記得具體是怎麼操作的了。或許你能幫我回憶一下。

So workers' comp rates in several states, prices off of multiple -- I think it's Medicare, not Medicaid schedules. Not all, but in many.

所以，幾個州的工傷賠償率，價格是根據多個——我認為是聯邦醫療保險，而不是醫療補助計劃的價格表來定的。並非所有情況都如此，但很多情況都是如此。

And I think we all know that Medicare quite frankly plays not just below market, but below cost. So comp has benefited from a multiple of that. Now, what you're starting to see happen and you saw maybe a year or 18 months ago or something like that in Florida.

而且我認為我們都知道，坦白說，聯邦醫療保險（Medicare）的價格不僅低於市場水平，甚至低於成本。因此，公司股價已從中受益數倍。現在，你開始看到一些事情正在發生，而這些事情你可能在一年前或一年半前在佛羅裡達州看到了。

And I think you're starting to see it in some other states is where they are going back and reviewing what the multiple is because the underlying Medicare rates are just so below market that is basically enriching the comp writers and they're looking to adjust that. I think you're going to see that more and more. I think, quite frankly, medical trend is going to prove to be a bigger and bigger challenge. Certainly, pharma is a piece of that in spite of the efforts from the administration, and I think it's going to be not just pharma. So that's how we think about it.

我認為你在其他一些州也開始看到這種情況，他們正在重新審視倍數，因為基本的醫療保險費率遠低於市場水平，這實際上讓比較分析師賺得盆滿缽滿，他們正在尋求調整這一點。我認為你會看到這種情況越來越普遍。坦白說，我認為醫療趨勢將會是一個越來越大的挑戰。當然，製藥業是其中的一部分，儘管政府做出了努力，但我認為受影響的不僅僅是製藥業。我們就是這麼想的。

And hopefully, that's helpful as far as the relationship between and Medicare.

希望這對醫保和醫療保險之間的關係有所幫助。

Sure. Thanks, guys.

當然。謝謝各位。

Sure. Have a good evening. Thank you.

當然。祝你晚上愉快。謝謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO資本市場。

Hey, good evening. Thanks for fitting me in. Just kind of going back to the competitive environment in the insurance cycle. And you and Bill, Rob have a lot of experience in terms of seeing a lot of past cycles.

嘿，晚上好。謝謝你安排我過來。又回到了保險週期的競爭環境。你、比爾和羅佈在見證過許多過去的周期方面都有著豐富的經驗。

Does -- I know you wouldn't say that based on your commentary, that's rational for casualty pricing to start decelerating given social inflation levels remain an issue. But I guess -- but from just -- as a competitor, though, have you seen this kind of cycle before that until there's real pain and ROEs start eroding off high levels that the trajectory of casualty could be biased south a bit for the foreseeable future?

我知道根據你的評論，你不會這麼說，但考慮到社會通膨水平仍然是一個問題，意外傷害定價開始放緩是合理的。但我想——但僅僅是——作為競爭對手，你以前見過這種週期嗎？直到真正出現痛苦，股本回報率開始從高位下滑，以至於在可預見的未來，傷亡軌跡可能會略微向下傾斜？

We're not seeing any -- as far as GL or excess and umbrella, we are not seeing that. I think we probably tortured the topic of auto liability enough. But as far as GL and the access an umbrella, we're not seeing signs of what you're referring to.

我們沒有看到任何東西——就 GL 或超額保險和傘險而言，我們沒有看到任何此類情況。我覺得我們已經對汽車責任問題討論得夠多了。但就 GL 和訪問保護傘而言，我們還沒有看到您所指的跡象。

Will it come eventually? Yeah, absolutely. It's still a cyclical business. But is it here today? Certainly not something that we're observing at the moment.

它最終會到來嗎？是的，絕對的。這仍然是一個週期性行業。但它今天還在這裡嗎？當然，目前我們還沒有觀察到這種情況。

Okay. Got it. And my follow-up is, Rob, in your prepared remarks, when you're talking about kind of meeting the customer where they -- where it's most convenient for them. I guess, I was initially thinking you were talking about direct-to-consumer or direct-to-business insurance online. But in your follow-up to a question later, you talked about just doing different types of business with existing traditional insurance bookers. So I don't know if you're willing to just be more -- add a little more color.

好的。知道了。羅布，我的後續問題是，在你準備好的發言中，當你談到要盡可能在客戶最方便的地方與他們見面時。我一開始以為你指的是直接面向消費者或直接面向企業的線上保險。但在您後來對一個問題的後續回答中，您談到了與現有的傳統保險預訂商開展不同類型的業務。所以我不知道你是否願意更進一步——增添一些色彩。

Yeah, maybe -- yeah, a little more color, sure, Mike. I think the point that we were trying to make is that the sacredness of the relationship between carrier and distribution is not universally sacred anymore. There's been a lot of change that has occurred, whether it be the nature of the ownership of the distribution, whether it be consolidation, whether it be distribution getting into the underwriting business. It's evolved.

是啊，也許──是啊，當然，再多點色彩，麥克。我認為我們想要表達的觀點是，載體與分銷之間關係的聖潔性已不再具有普遍的神聖性。發生了許多變化，無論是分銷的所有權性質，還是整合，也或是分銷進入承保業務。它已經進化了。

Simultaneously, you have a meaningful shift in customer behavior. And while perhaps it's not particularly pronounced amongst large accounts, in the small part of town is much more akin to personal lines.

同時，顧客行為也發生了顯著變化。雖然這種情況在大客戶中可能並不特別明顯，但在小鎮地區，這種情況更像是個人保險。

So we, as an organization, are of the view in the end that we exist to serve the customer, and we are respectful of our partners, but we are going to meet the customer wherever she or he wishes to be met in the way they choose to be met.

因此，我們作為一個組織，最終認為我們存在的目的是服務客戶，我們尊重我們的合作夥伴，但我們會按照客戶希望的方式，在客戶希望的任何地方與他們見面。

So we certainly have businesses that are solely dedicated to wholesale. We certainly have businesses that are solely dedicated to retail. We also have businesses in the group that are going direct to customer.

所以我們當然也有一些企業專門從事批發業務。我們當然也有一些企業專門從事零售業務。我們集團內也有一些企業直接面向消費者。

We have a new venture that is going to start to get its sea legs during '26 called Berkley Embedded, where it's point of sale. So there's a whole host of different things that we're doing not looking to undermine partners but making sure that we are there to meet the customer how she or he wishes to be met.

我們有一個新的項目，名為 Berkley Embedded，將於 2026 年開始步入正軌，屆時它將成為銷售點。因此，我們正在做很多不同的事情，目的不是為了損害合作夥伴的利益，而是為了確保我們能夠以客戶希望的方式滿足客戶的需求。

And what is becoming more and more apparent, I think I may have said this, if I didn't -- my mistake, is that the customer, of course, they care about price, almost every consumer does, but customers are more preoccupied with convenience, and they are more open to a self-serve model, and we need to be conscious of that and responsive to that.

越來越明顯的一點是，我想我可能說過，如果我沒說——我的錯——是，顧客當然關心價格，幾乎所有消費者都關心價格，但顧客更注重便利性，他們更樂於接受自助服務模式，我們需要意識到這一點並對此做出回應。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Maxwell Fritscher, Truist Securities.

Maxwell Fritscher，Truist Securities。

Good evening.

晚安.

Hi, good evening. I'm on for Mark Hughes. In the other liability line, you mentioned a pivot in your portfolio last quarter. Where do you stand with that now?

您好，晚上好。我支持馬克·休斯。在另一項負債中，您提到上個季度您的投資組合進行了調整。你現在對此持什麼立場？

And then separately, how did pricing in that line trend through the quarter maybe on a monthly basis if you have that level of granularity?

此外，如果能夠細化到季度或月度數據，該產品線的價格趨勢如何？

Honestly, maybe it's just the hour and a bit of a long day, but I do not have a clear recollection of what you suggested. We said around a pivot and other liability last quarter, I'm sorry.

說實話，也許是因為一天下來太累了，我記不太清楚你之前建議的內容了。上個季度我們談到了業務轉型和其他負債問題，很抱歉。

Is there any additional context you could offer, please?

您能否提供更多背景資訊？

You had just mentioned that you're pivoting the portfolio maybe you different states or exposures. So I just wanted to see if you had an update for us there?

你剛才提到你正在調整投資組合，可能是針對不同的州或不同的投資方向。所以我想問你有沒有什麼最新消息？

Maybe, again, I apologize, it's not ringing a bell. Maybe we could pick this up offline, if you don't mind. And we can sort of try and unpack it a little bit more as to what the context was. But it's not striking a cord.

或許，再次抱歉，您可能沒聽出來。如果你不介意的話，或許我們可以線下繼續討論。我們可以試著進一步分析一下當時的背景。但這並沒有引起共鳴。

Absolutely. That works. How about the pricing in other liability through the quarter, monthly, did it accelerate, or how did you see that?

絕對地。這樣可行。季度和月度其他負債的定價情況如何？是加速上漲還是上漲？您是如何看待這個問題的？

Yeah. We don't, generally speaking, break out that type of detail by product line. But as we suggested earlier, on the liability side, we are feeling comfortable about where things are and how we see the market opportunity at least at this moment.

是的。一般來說，我們不會依產品線細分這類細節。但正如我們先前所建議的，就負債方面而言，我們對現狀以及我們目前對市場機會的看法感到滿意。

Understood. And then separately on property. Any stabilization there in pricing, or are you still seeing incremental pressure there?

明白了。然後分別就房產而言。價格方面是否有趨於穩定，還是仍面臨持續上漲的壓力？

Well, I think -- as we have suggested earlier, I think with the larger account stuff, we're seeing more than incremental pressure. Unfortunately, for us, that's not a big part of what we do.

嗯，我認為——正如我們之前所建議的那樣，我認為對於大客戶而言，我們看到的不僅僅是漸進式的壓力。遺憾的是，對我們來說，這並不是我們工作的主要部分。

On the smaller property accounts, quite frankly, we're still seeing opportunity there.

坦白說，在規模較小的房地產帳戶方面，我們仍然看到機會。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thank you for the questions. Have a good evening. And again, if you wish to follow up on that, please just give us a shot whenever you like.

謝謝大家的提問。祝你晚上愉快。如果您想繼續跟進，請隨時與我們聯繫。

Kevin, was there anything else, or are we through?

凱文，還有其他事嗎？還是我們結束了？

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back to you, Mr. Rob Berkley, for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題了。現在我把電話交還給您，羅伯·伯克利先生，請您作總結發言。

Kevin, thank you very much for your hospitality this evening. Thank you to all participants for your time and your interest in the company.

凱文，非常感謝你今晚的熱情款待。感謝各位參與者抽出寶貴時間並感謝你們對公司的關注。

Again, I think a solid quarter to say the least, another great year, and the momentum continues for the most part to be in our favor. So we look forward to catching up with you sometime in early April, and we wish you a good evening.

再次強調，我認為至少可以說這是一個穩健的季度，又是一個輝煌的年份，而且大部分勢頭仍然對我們有利。我們期待在四月初與您見面，祝您晚安。

Thank you again. Good night.

再次感謝。晚安。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝各位的出席。您現在可以斷開連線了。