W R Berkley Corp (WRB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the W.R. Berkley Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference call is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 W.R. Berkley Corporation 的 2023 年第四季和全年收益電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音。

The speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words including, without limitation, believes, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should be -- should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will, in fact, be achieved. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. W.R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

演講者的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。一些前瞻性陳述可以透過使用前瞻性字詞來識別，包括但不限於相信、預期或估計。我們提醒您，此類前瞻性聲明不應被視為我們表示我們預期的未來計劃、估計或期望實際上將會實現。請參閱我們截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件，以了解我們經營所在的商業環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素的描述。 W.R. Berkley Corporation 不承擔任何義務，並明確聲明不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新或更改其前瞻性聲明的任何此類義務。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給羅布·伯克利先生。請繼續，先生。

Sarah, thank you very much. And good afternoon all, and welcome to our fourth quarter call and for that matter, full year '23 call. In addition to me, you also have Bill Berkley, Executive Chairman on the call as well as Rich Baio, our Chief Financial Officer of the company.

莎拉，非常感謝你。大家下午好，歡迎參加我們的第四季電話會議以及 23 年全年電話會議。除了我之外，參加電話會議的還有執行主席 Bill Berkley 以及我們公司的財務長 Rich Baio。

We are going to follow our usual agenda where, very shortly, I'm going to hand it over to Rich. He's going to walk us through some highlights from the quarter. Once he's completed his comments, I'll offer a couple of thoughts of my own. And then we'll be pleased to open it up for Q&A.

我們將遵循我們通常的議程，很快我就會把它交給里奇。他將向我們介紹本季的一些亮點。一旦他完成了他的評論，我將提出我自己的一些想法。然後我們很樂意將其打開進行問答。

Before I hand it over to Rich, I did just want to offer a thought or 2. And for some participants, this probably won't be new to, I guess, a discussion that we've had in the past. For our organization, there is, without a doubt amongst all of us colleagues, a shared recognition that the goal of the exercise is value creation. We approach this through a lens that we've again touched on in the past, but I'll flag it again, a lens that we refer to as risk-adjusted return.

在我把它交給里奇之前，我只想提出一個或兩個想法。對於一些參與者來說，我想這對我們過去進行過的討論來說可能並不新鮮。對於我們的組織來說，毫無疑問，我們所有同事都一致認為，這項工作的目標是創造價值。我們透過過去再次觸及的視角來解決這個問題，但我會再次標記它，我們稱之為風險調整回報。

All returns are not created equal. One needs to consider the type of risk that you are taking on in order to achieve that return. And in contemplating that risk, one needs to consider volatility as a component of that. One needs to ask themselves the question, am I getting paid enough for that risk, and of course, in considering that, what role volatility plays.

並非所有回報都是平等的。人們需要考慮您為了實現這項回報而承擔的風險類型。在考慮這種風險時，我們需要將波動性視為其中的一個組成部分。人們需要問自己這樣一個問題：我是否獲得足夠的報酬來應對這種風險，當然，考慮到這一點，波動性起著什麼作用。

In the fourth quarter of '23, there should be many market participants that report good numbers. But I think that one needs to look beyond just a quarter. One needs to look at the year. One needs to look at the past several years. When it comes to value creation, it's not just about a step forward. It's about consistently taking steps forward, and it's about avoiding taking steps backwards.

23 年第四季度，應該有許多市場參與者報告了良好的數據。但我認為我們的目光不能只限於四分之一。需要看年份。需要回顧過去幾年。當談到價值創造時，這不僅僅是前進的一步。這是關於不斷向前邁進，並且是關於避免倒退。

When you look at the results of our quarter, without a doubt, they are very strong, very robust by any measure. But I would encourage people to look at the full year and look at the past many years. And our ability to create value, taking into account the risk that we are accepting in order to achieve those returns is really the cornerstone why we've been able to build value for shareholders so successfully over many years this quarter and this year, no exception.

當你看到我們這個季度的業績時，毫無疑問，無論以何種標準衡量，它們都非常強勁、非常強勁。但我鼓勵人們回顧全年並回顧過去的許多年。我們創造價值的能力，考慮到我們為實現這些回報而接受的風險，這確實是我們多年來能夠在本季度和今年如此成功地為股東創造價值的基石，也不例外。

So to that end, before I hand it over to Rich, I would like to thank and congratulate my colleagues throughout the organization on a really outstanding quarter, outstanding year and yet another year of a job very well done. Also on behalf of my colleagues, I would like to thank our shareholders for allowing us the opportunity and the privilege for managing capital on their behalf.

為此，在我將其交給里奇之前，我要感謝並祝賀整個組織的同事們，他們度過了非常出色的季度、出色的一年和又一年出色的工作。我還要代表我的同事感謝我們的股東給予我們代表他們管理資本的機會和特權。

I will pause there. And Rich, over to you. What do you have for us?

我會在那裡暫停。里奇，交給你了。你有什麼給我們的？

Thanks, Rob. Appreciate it, and good afternoon, everyone. The company continued to report record-setting financial results in the quarter, leading to an outstanding full year. Net income increased to $397 million or $1.47 per share compared with $382 million or $1.37 per share in the prior year quarter. Annualized return on beginning of year equity was 23.6%. Record operating income increased more than 21% to $392 million or $1.45 per share, with an annualized return on beginning of year equity of 23.2%. Our extreme ownership in maximizing risk-adjusted return in everything we do contributed to our record full year underwriting income, net investment income, operating income and net income.

謝謝，羅布。非常感謝，大家下午好。該公司本季繼續公佈創紀錄的財務業績，全年業績表現出色。淨利潤增至 3.97 億美元，即每股 1.47 美元，去年同期淨利為 3.82 億美元，即每股 1.37 美元。年初股本年化報酬率為23.6%。創紀錄的營業收入成長了 21% 以上，達到 3.92 億美元，即每股 1.45 美元，年初股本年化報酬率為 23.2%。我們在所做的一切事情中最大限度地提高風險調整回報的極端所有權為我們創紀錄的全年承保收入、淨投資收入、營業收入和淨利潤做出了貢獻。

Our top line growth accelerated throughout the year with the fourth quarter, reflecting a 12% increase in net premiums written to more than $2.7 billion, bringing the full year to a record of almost $11 billion. On a constant foreign currency exchange rate basis, the quarterly and full year growth was adversely impacted by approximately 50 basis points due to the weakening U.S. dollar.

第四季我們的營收成長全年加速，淨保費成長 12%，達到 27 億美元以上，全年達到近 110 億美元的創紀錄水準。在固定外幣匯率基礎上，由於美元疲軟，季度和全年成長受到約50個基點的不利影響。

On a segment basis, Insurance grew 12.3% to more than $2.4 billion in the quarter from rate improvement and exposure growth. The Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment increased 10.2% to more than $300 million. This marks a record level for full year gross and net premiums written for each segment.

從分部來看，由於費率改善和風險敞口成長，本季保險業務成長了 12.3%，達到 24 億美元以上。再保險和單險超額部分成長 10.2%，達到 3 億多美元。這標誌著各細分市場全年毛保費和淨保費創下歷史新高。

Turning to underwriting performance. Record quarterly pretax underwriting income increased 8.2% to $316 million, representing a calendar year combined ratio of 88.4%. Current accident year catastrophe losses were flat at 1.2 loss ratio points for the comparable quarters with $32 million and $30 million reported in fourth quarter 2023 and 2022, respectively. Prior year development was favorable by $1 million, bringing our current accident year loss ratio ex cats to 58.8%. The improvement over the prior year's quarter of 50 basis points was primarily due to business mix and lower attritional property losses. The expense ratio increased 60 basis points to 28.4% in the current quarter, flat to the 2023 full year.

轉向核保業績。創紀錄的季度稅前承保收入成長 8.2%，達到 3.16 億美元，日曆年綜合成本率為 88.4%。當前事故年的巨災損失與可比季度相比持平，損失比為 1.2 個百分點，2023 年第四季和 2022 年第四季的損失率分別為 3,200 萬美元和 3,000 萬美元。去年的發展有利 100 萬美元，使我們目前的事故年損失率（前貓）達到 58.8%。較上年同期提高 50 個基點主要是因為業務組合和財產損失減少。本季費用率上升 60 個基點至 28.4%，與 2023 年全年持平。

The increase from the prior year's quarter is consistent with our prior communication, that being lower ceding commissions resulting from business mix and reinsurance structure changes over the past year. In addition, increased compensation costs and start-up operating unit expenses have also contributed to the small increase. We expect that our 2024 full year expense ratio should be comfortably below 30%, taking into consideration investments in such things like technology and data and analytics as well as new start-up operating unit expenses. So in summary, our current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes for the quarter, was 87.2%.

與上年同期相比的成長與我們先前的溝通一致，即由於過去一年的業務組合和再保險結構變化而導致分保佣金降低。此外，補償成本和啟動營運單位費用的增加也導致了小幅成長。考慮到技術、數據和分析等方面的投資以及新的新創營運單位費用，我們預計 2024 年全年費用率應輕鬆低於 30%。總而言之，我們目前的事故年綜合比率（不包括本季的災難）為 87.2%。

Record quarterly pretax net investment income increased more than 35% to $313 million, bringing the full year to more than $1 billion for the first time in the company's history. The combination of our short duration and record level operating cash flow of more than $2.9 billion in the full year has positioned us well to invest in securities with higher interest rates.

創紀錄的季度稅前淨投資收入成長超過 35%，達到 3.13 億美元，使全年收入在公司歷史上首次超過 10 億美元。我們的期限較短，加上全年超過 29 億美元的創紀錄水平的經營現金流，使我們能夠很好地投資於利率較高的證券。

The book yield on the fixed maturity portfolio continued to advance throughout the year to 4.4% on a 12-month basis. Our net invested assets increased approximately 10% in the past year to almost $27 billion. The credit quality of the portfolio remains very strong at AA- with the duration on our fixed maturity portfolio including cash and cash equivalents of 2.4 years.

固定期限投資組合的帳面收益率全年持續上升，以 12 個月計算達 4.4%。去年，我們的淨投資資產增加了約 10%，達到近 270 億美元。投資組合的信用品質仍然非常強勁，評級為 AA-，包括現金和現金等價物的固定期限投資組合的久期為 2.4 年。

The investment funds improved from the consecutive quarter to $11 million although declined from the prior year, in large part due to market value adjustments in the real estate fund area. As a reminder, the investment funds are generally reported on a 1-quarter lag.

投資資金較連續季度增加至 1,100 萬美元，但較上年有所下降，這在很大程度上是由於房地產基金領域的市值調整。提醒一下，投資基金的報告通常有 1 個季度的延遲。

Foreign currency losses in the quarter related to the U.S. dollar weakening relative to most other currencies. It's worth noting, however, that the net effect to stockholders' equity is negligible since the improvement in our currency translation adjustment more than offset the amount reflected in the income statement. Stockholders' equity increased to a record of almost $7.5 billion.

本季的外匯損失與美元相對於大多數其他貨幣的疲軟有關。然而，值得注意的是，對股東權益的淨影響可以忽略不計，因為我們的貨幣換算調整的改善足以抵銷損益表中反映的金額。股東權益增至創紀錄的近 75 億美元。

Careful capital management throughout the year resulted in 3 special dividends of $0.50 each per share plus regular quarterly dividends totaling $501 million. In addition, share repurchases in the quarter of almost 1.6 million shares contributed to a total of more than 8.7 million shares repurchased during the year amounting to $537 million or $61.69 per share. So our capital management during 2023 aggregated to more than $1 billion, the most we've returned to shareholders in 1 year while growing shareholders' equity more than 10% and maintaining more than adequate capital to support ongoing growth in the business. Book value per share increased 11.6% and 25.5% in the quarter and full year before dividends and share repurchases.

全年謹慎的資本管理帶來了 3 次每股 0.50 美元的特別股息以及總計 5.01 億美元的定期季度股息。此外，本季回購了近 160 萬股股票，全年回購股票總數超過 870 萬股，金額達 5.37 億美元，即每股 61.69 美元。因此，我們在 2023 年的資本管理總額將超過 10 億美元，這是我們一年內向股東返還的最高金額，同時股東權益增長超過 10%，並保持足夠的資本來支持業務的持續增長。在扣除股息和股票回購之前，本季和全年每股帳面價值分別成長了 11.6% 和 25.5%。

And Rob, with that, I'll turn it back to you.

羅布，這樣，我會把它還給你。

Rich, thank you very much. Pretty attractive picture, and even a conservative CPA couldn't make it sound anything other than encouraging. So a couple of observations on my end. Obviously, the top line growth, we're pleased with the progress that we're making relative to the past few quarters. I think this is unfolding exactly as we suggested.

豐富，非常感謝你。畫面非常吸引人，即使是保守的註冊會計師也只能讓它聽起來令人鼓舞。我有一些觀察結果。顯然，就營收成長而言，我們對過去幾季的進展感到滿意。我認為事情的發展完全按照我們的建議。

Just calling out a few pieces of that puzzle. Clearly, some of the things that we had talked about as far as portfolios that we were separating from, much of that pig is through the python. The specialty market in general continues to be particularly attractive. I would highlight E&S especially. Furthermore, I don't think that party is over. When we are looking at the submission flow, we continue to be quite encouraged.

只是說出這個難題的一些部分。顯然，我們討論過的一些關於我們要從中分離的投資組合的事情，大部分都是透過蟒蛇實現的。總體而言，專業市場仍然特別有吸引力。我要特別強調 E&S。此外，我認為聚會還沒結束。當我們查看提交流程時，我們仍然受到很大的鼓舞。

On the other hand, certainly, within the professional liability space, and I'll call out public D&O as perhaps one of the extreme examples, I think it is delicate and treacherous. And as you can see in the numbers in our release, we are treading thoughtfully as you'd expect.

另一方面，當然，在職業責任領域，我認為公共 D&O 可能是極端的例子之一，我認為它是微妙而危險的。正如您在我們發布的數據中所看到的，我們正在按照您的預期進行深思熟慮。

Rich touched on the rate coming in at 8%, which, based on our assessment, it's pretty clear that we are comfortably exceeding any reasonable assumption around loss cost trend, and we are encouraged by that. I know that there are a couple of chicken littles out there that are sort of hanging on the rate number that we share on a quarterly basis, and some might say, well, geez, this is down below where it was in the third quarter. And that is a factually correct statement.

Rich 談到了 8% 的利率，根據我們的評估，很明顯，我們輕鬆地超出了有關損失成本趨勢的任何合理假設，我們對此感到鼓舞。我知道有一些小雞們對我們每季分享的利率數字很感興趣，有些人可能會說，好吧，天哪，這低於第三季的水平。這是一個事實上正確的說法。

That having been said, I would caution people to please understand that is really driven by mix of business and not just product line. But we have more than 60 different businesses under the group umbrella, and at any moment in time, some are growing more than others, and rate opportunity is not equal amongst all the businesses in the group and obviously all product lines as well.

話雖如此，我提醒人們請理解，這實際上是由業務組合驅動的，而不僅僅是產品線。但我們集團旗下有 60 多個不同的業務，而且在任何時候，有些業務的成長速度都比其他業務快，而且集團內所有業務以及所有產品線之間的利率機會並不相同。

And just as a point of reference, you'll recall this time or fourth quarter '22, we got 6.9 points of rate ex comp. So again, we are comfortably above where we were a year ago, and we are confident, again, that we are exceeding trend by a meaningful margin.

作為參考，您會記得這個時候或 22 年第四季度，我們獲得了 6.9 個百分點的稅前補償率。因此，我們再次輕鬆地高於一年前的水平，並且我們再次有信心，我們正在以有意義的幅度超越趨勢。

Again, Rich talked about the losses. I'm not going to get into that. The only thing that I will flag is that the paid loss ratio for the quarter came in at 48 and change. And for I don't know how many quarters it is at this stage, it's just sort of floating between 46 and 49, which I think is really just a reflection of the rate action along with the underwriting discipline and focus of our colleagues that are allowing us to be arguably writing business at a pretty healthy margin to say the least.

里奇再次談到了損失。我不打算討論這個。我唯一要指出的是，本季的有償損失率為 48，並且發生了變化。因為我不知道現階段有多少個季度，它只是在 46 到 49 之間浮動，我認為這實際上只是利率行動以及承保紀律和我們同事的關注點的反映。至少可以說，這使我們能夠以相當健康的利潤來開展業務。

Again, Rich touched on the expense piece, so I'm not going to rehash that other than I will make the one comment that, for purposes of '24, we have some businesses that we started prior and those are going to be impacting our expense ratio. Though even with those coming into the expense ratio as they are in business for a full year, the fact of the matter is that's going to be a relatively modest drag.

里奇再次談到了費用部分，所以我不會重複這一點，除了我會發表一個評論，即為了 24 年的目的，我們有一些我們之前開始的業務，這些業務將影響我們的業務。費用比率。儘管即使那些進入費用比率的公司已經營業了一整年，但事實是，這將是一個相對溫和的拖累。

Going the other way as far as benefit goes. You can see what happened with our written premium in Q3 and certainly in Q4. And we all know how that's going to trickle through and impact the earned in '24, which will clearly be a positive.

就利益而言，走另一條路。您可以看到我們在第三季和第四季的保費發生了什麼。我們都知道這將如何滲透並影響 24 年的收入，這顯然是正面的。

Last comment on the investment portfolio. Rich touched on that as far as the book yield. As far as we're concerned, the new money rate for us still today, even with all the humming and hung about where interest rates are going, we still can put money to work at 5-plus percent. So we think that there's opportunity there.

關於投資組合的最後評論。里奇談到了圖書收益率。就我們而言，新的貨幣利率至今仍然有效，即使人們對利率的走向充滿關注，我們仍然可以以 5% 以上的利率投入資金。所以我們認為那裡有機會。

As Rich mentioned, the duration, 2.4 years, we are looking for the window of opportunity to nudge that out. We are not in a rush. We have a slightly different view than much of the world as to where interest rates are going. And when the window of opportunity presents itself, you will likely see that 2.4 moving out from here.

正如 Rich 所提到的，持續時間為 2.4 年，我們正在尋找機會來推動這一目標。我們並不著急。對於利率走勢，我們的看法與世界上許多國家略有不同。當機會之窗出現時，您可能會看到 2.4 從這裡開始移動。

So again, I think it's exciting that we had a good quarter. It's rewarding and encouraging that we had a good year and top of a good year in '22 and so on. But I think the most encouraging thing is when you look at where -- or I should say, how the table is set for '24 and beyond, we are in a very good place and not only on the underwriting side but on the investment side. So I believe in '24 and likely beyond, you are going to continue to see this economic model firing on all cylinders.

再說一遍，我認為我們度過了一個美好的季度，這令人興奮。我們在 22 年度過了美好的一年，並在美好的一年中達到頂峰，這令人欣慰和鼓舞。但我認為最令人鼓舞的是，當你看看 24 世紀及以後的情況如何設定時，我們處於一個非常好的位置，不僅在承保方面，而且在投資方面。因此，我相信在 24 年以及很可能以後，您將繼續看到這種經濟模式全速運轉。

So that probably wasn't as brief as I promised, but it was relatively brief for me. And I'm going to pause there. And Sarah, we would be very pleased to open it up for questions. Thank you.

所以這可能不像我承諾的那麼簡短，但對我來說相對簡短。我要在這裡暫停一下。莎拉，我們很樂意開放提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的路線。

My first question, Rob, probably picking up kind of where you were ending with your comments. Premium growth picked up, right, in the third and the fourth quarter, ending at 12% in the fourth quarter. So as you think out to '24, is that kind of the baseline? Would you expect the quarters of '24 to all be 12% or greater just given the momentum that you've been highlighting on the call?

我的第一個問題，羅布，可能是在回答你的評論結尾。保費成長在第三和第四季有所回升，第四季成長率為 12%。那麼，當你想到 24 世紀時，這是基線嗎？考慮到您在電話會議上強調的勢頭，您是否預計 24 年各季度的成長率都將達到 12% 或更高？

Elyse, I appreciate that you and other colleagues are trying to build models and making certain assumptions. But the truth of the matter is that -- tell me what market conditions are going to be, and I can give you a thoughtful answer to your question. There is nothing that I see today that leads me to believe that there isn't meaningful opportunity before us.

Elyse，我很欣賞你和其他同事正在嘗試建立模型並做出某些假設。但事情的真相是——告訴我市場狀況將會怎樣，我可以給你一個深思熟慮的答案。我今天所看到的一切並沒有讓我相信我們面前沒有任何有意義的機會。

And again, do I think the 12% number is a reasonable number to use? Yes. Do I think it's possible it could be better than that? It certainly is possible. But again, tell me what the market conditions will be, and then I can give you a more thoughtful answer as opposed to fumbling around on this end.

再說一次，我認為 12% 這個數字是個合理的數字嗎？是的。我認為有可能比這更好嗎？這當然是可能的。但再次強調，告訴我市場狀況如何，然後我可以給你一個更周到的答案，而不是在這方面摸索。

Well, maybe sticking with that market thought, right? We've heard a lot of conjecture about whether we start to see a broader strengthening of the casualty market. And so where are you on that? Do you think we'll start to see more broad-based pricing momentum within casualty lines as we go through 2024?

好吧，也許堅持市場思維，對吧？我們聽到了很多關於我們是否開始看到傷亡市場更廣泛走強的猜測。那麼你對此有何看法？您認為到 2024 年，我們是否會開始看到傷亡保險範圍內更廣泛的定價動能？

I think you should. From our perspective, obviously, one of the big drivers there is social inflation. And as far as we're concerned, it's alive and well. In addition to that, as far as another pressure point, I think you're starting to see the reinsurance marketplace, particularly on the treaty side, but across the board, sorry to wake up and really recognize some of the challenges that the liability market faces and this kind of pressure that you saw the reinsurance marketplace put on the property line, I think, while it may not be to the same extent, I think you're going to see them start to really focus on some of the liability lines, and I think that will perhaps introduce further discipline into the casualty market.

我想你應該。從我們的角度來看，顯然，社會通貨膨脹是最大的推動因素之一。就我們而言，它還活著並且運作良好。除此之外，就另一個壓力點而言，我認為您開始看到再保險市場，特別是在條約方面，但從整體上看，抱歉醒來並真正認識到責任市場面臨的一些挑戰面臨著這種壓力，你看到再保險市場對財產線施加了壓力，我認為，雖然程度可能不同，但我認為你會看到他們開始真正關註一些責任線，我認為這可能會給傷亡市場帶來進一步的紀律。

Quite frankly, if you go back in time, we've sort of been standing on our head and jumping up and down, talking about social inflation for many years. And we started pushing on rate pretty early. And it's been good to see more recently people showing up to the party and recognizing what that loss trend is, recognizing what that means for this loss cost and taking action. So long story short, I think that there's some more legs to the liability market, particularly umbrella, auto liability, geo and just a lot of the excess market overall.

坦白說，如果你回到過去，我們多年來一直在談論社會通貨膨脹。我們很早就開始提高利率。很高興看到最近人們出現在聚會上並認識到損失趨勢是什麼，並認識到這對損失成本意味著什麼並採取行動。長話短說，我認為責任市場還有更多的發展空間，特別是保護傘、汽車責任、地理責任以及整體的大量過剩市場。

And then one more. You guys said $1 million, and I think, a favorable development in the quarter. I know we typically get more color when the K is filed. But any movements within lines or accident years that were more significant nature in the fourth quarter?

然後還有一張。你們說的是 100 萬美元，我認為，這個季度的發展是有利的。我知道當提交 K 時我們通常會得到更多顏色。但是，在第四季度中，線路或事故年份中是否有任何更重要的變化？

Nothing that's particularly earth shattering. I would say it's kind of more of the same. But if you're looking for more detail, I'd encourage you just to give Karen or Rich a call and if you can't get one of them, just give me a buzz.

沒有什麼特別驚天動地的事。我想說的是，這更像是一樣的。但如果您想了解更多詳細信息，我建議您給凱倫或里奇打電話，如果您無法接通他們中的一個，請給我打電話。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

你的下一個問題來自 Mark Hughes 和 Truist 的對話。

How -- what are you seeing in terms of loss development on some of those older accident years, particularly in the casualty lines? Any change in trajectory this year compared to prior years?

您對一些較早事故年份的損失發展有何看法，特別是在傷亡方面？與往年相比，今年的發展軌跡有什麼改變嗎？

I would suggest that some of the older years are beginning to show signs of petering out. And I think some of the more recent years that look particularly encouraging, as they season out more, we will be more inclined to recognize the good news. But I think at this stage, if you look at the average duration of our loss reserves or an average life of our loss reserves, which is 3.5-plus years, just shy of 4 years at this stage, we have our arms around, I think, a lot of the years that were particularly frustrating, where I think the industry may have gotten caught a little flat-footed and ourselves are not completely insulated from that with social inflation.

我認為，一些較老的歲月已經開始顯示出逐漸消失的跡象。我認為最近幾年的一些事情看起來特別令人鼓舞，隨著它們的出現越來越多，我們將更傾向於認識到這個好消息。但我認為在現階段，如果你看看我們損失準備金的平均持續時間或損失準備金的平均壽命，即3.5年以上，現階段不到4年，我們會全力以赴，我想，很多年都特別令人沮喪，我認為這個行業可能有點措手不及，而我們自己也沒有完全免受社會通貨膨脹的影響。

I think we may have gotten on top of it a little quicker than some, but nevertheless, '16 through '19 is not without its challenges. That having been said, I think some of the more recent years are encouraging. But I think '16 through '19 are slowing considerably. And certainly, the earlier of that group, I think, have maybe not fully played out but are pretty darn close.

我認為我們可能比某些人更快解決了這個問題，但儘管如此，從 16 年到 19 年也並非沒有挑戰。話雖如此，我認為最近幾年的一些情況令人鼓舞。但我認為 16 年到 19 年的成長速度明顯放緩。當然，我認為該組中較早的一個可能還沒有完全發揮出來，但已經非常接近了。

Yes, very good. How about on the workers' comp? You had some growth in net premiums written this quarter. How are you thinking about that?

是的，很好。工人補償怎麼樣？本季您的淨保費有所增長。你覺得怎麼樣？

Yes. That was primarily due to payroll, if you will, just wage -- or wage inflation if you like. So I think...

是的。這主要是由於工資（如果你願意的話），只是工資——或者是工資通膨（如果你願意的話）。所以我認為...

Anything -- any update on...

任何事情——任何更新…

We still have reservations about the product line. We're pleased that we participate in the market. We think our colleagues that are in the space have exceptional expertise and are managing the capital well. But by and large, if there's a little bit more of a certainly neutral to defensive posture at this stage, I think as we've talked about in the past, we think that the medical trend is going to prove to be challenging. As far as obviously the U.S. comp market is both broad and deep and from what I hear from my colleagues that are far more knowledgeable than I, I would keep an eye on California for leading the charge as far as a market bottoming out.

我們對產品線還是持保留態度的。我們很高興參與這個市場。我們認為該領域的同事擁有卓越的專業知識，並且能夠很好地管理資本。但總的來說，如果現階段有更多的中立到防禦姿態，我認為正如我們過去討論的那樣，我們認為醫療趨勢將被證明是具有挑戰性的。顯然，美國比較市場既廣泛又深入，而且從我從比我更知識淵博的同事那裡聽到的消息來看，我會密切關注加州在市場觸底反彈方面的領先地位。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski of BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Mike Zaremski。

I guess just if we wanted to reflect on the past 12 to 18 months and if you could -- you've discussed it a bit, but there was kind of a pivot downwards and growth for a bit. Did the -- was the pivot more the marketplace change in terms of competition? Or was it more so reflection of what you've been talking about, hey, loss costs are -- we need to do a bit of a true-up and you've gotten that pig through the python and kind of now the -- it's kind of smoother sailing from here. Just kind of curious how much was kind of more, you think, [oracley] specific versus just market forces and the competitors doing their thing.

我想，如果我們想回顧一下過去 12 到 18 個月，如果可以的話，你們已經對此進行了一些討論，但確實出現了一些下滑和增長。市場在競爭方面的變化是否更大？或者這更能反映你一直在談論的內容，嘿，損失成本是——我們需要做一些調整，你已經讓那頭豬穿過了蟒蛇，現在——從這裡開始航行會更加順利。只是有點好奇，你認為，[oracley] 特定的與市場力量和競爭對手做他們的事情相比，多少是更多的。

So the way I would characterize it, Mike, is I think that the market is changing every day. And if you go back, call it, 2 years ago, professional liability, D&O, as an example, was in a different place than it is today. So you have that force.

麥克，我的描述是，我認為市場每天都在變化。如果你回顧一下，兩年前，職業責任（D&O）的情況與今天不同。所以你有這個力量。

On the other hand, clearly, 2 years ago, property was in a different place than it is today. So you have all these pieces that at any moment in time. Some things are firming. Some things are softening, and obviously that instructs how we feel and how strong or not our appetite is.

另一方面，兩年前，房地產的狀況顯然與今天不同。所以你隨時都可以擁有所有這些碎片。有些事情正在堅定。有些東西正在軟化，顯然這會指示我們的感受以及我們的食慾是否強烈。

In addition to that, I think as we may have flagged in some earlier calls, there were a couple of what I would describe as media relationships scale-wise that we came to a shared understanding that we agreed to disagree as to what an appropriate rate need is and what action was required. And as a result of that, we wished each other well or at least we wished them well. And that played a role in it as -- in addition to the earlier comments.

除此之外，我認為正如我們在之前的一些電話中可能已經指出的那樣，有一些我所描述的媒體關係規模，我們達成了共識，即我們同意在適當的費率方面存在分歧。需要是什麼以及需要採取什麼行動。因此，我們祝福彼此一切順利，或至少我們祝福他們一切順利。除了先前的評論之外，這也在其中發揮了作用。

So do I think that the 12% is this like phenomenal number that's a one-off? The answer is no. I think that there were some things in the first half of the year that served as somewhat of an extreme drag. And what you're seeing now is a lot of that shift away has been processed.

那我是否認為 12% 這個數字是一次性的呢？答案是不行。我認為上半年有些事情對我們來說是一個極大的拖累。您現在看到的是，很多轉移已經處理完畢。

Okay. That's helpful context. Clearly, the ROE for the year ended up being excellent. So I guess just switching gears a little bit. I think you mentioned the reinsurers. Anything we should be thinking about maybe within your expense ratio guidance or just as the year progresses in terms of if the reinsurers are able to successfully garner higher pricing, ceding commissions or whatnot on what they charge their counterparties such as Berkley for casualty reinsurance? I know you guys have a reinsurance arm obviously, too, so there's an offset, but just curious if there's something in there you could talk about.

好的。這是有用的背景。顯然，今年的淨資產收益率非常出色。所以我想只是稍微改變一下。我想你提到了再保險公司。在您的費用率指導範圍內，或者隨著時間的推移，再保險公司是否能夠成功獲得更高的定價、放棄佣金或向伯克利等對手方收取傷亡再保險費用，我們應該考慮什麼？我知道你們顯然也有再保險部門，所以有一個抵消，但只是好奇是否有什麼可以談論的。

Obviously, we take that from one pocket and hopefully, we're getting it back and then some in the other pocket. I think one of the things that -- so do I think it's possible that you're going to see some of the reinsurance marketplace trying to take action, for example, ceding commissions? Yes, I do. The good news for our organization, as we've discussed, because of our limits profile and how the business is operated with approximately 90% of our policies that are legally allowed to have limits having a limit of $2 million or less, that makes us less reinsurance dependent.

顯然，我們從一個口袋裡拿走了它，希望我們能把它拿回來，然後在另一個口袋裡拿一些。我認為其中一件事 - 所以我認為你是否有可能看到一些再保險市場試圖採取行動，例如放棄佣金？是的，我願意。正如我們所討論的，這對我們的組織來說是個好消息，因為我們的限額概況以及我們大約 90% 的保單的業務運作方式在法律上允許限額為 200 萬美元或更少，這使我們對再保險的依賴性較小。

So consequently, we have the ability to pivot and think about what we buy perhaps differently than some of our peers. And we also can shift structurally. So as Rich mentioned earlier around the cede, part of the reason why the -- excuse me, around the expense ratio, partly has to do with cede where people wanted to cut ceding commission. So maybe we switch to an XOL structure that made sense to us given the rate environment. And that worked out.

因此，我們有能力以與某些同行不同的方式來思考我們所購買的東西。我們也可以進行結構性轉變。因此，正如里奇之前提到的關於割讓的部分原因，請原諒，圍繞費用比率，部分原因與割讓有關，人們希望削減割讓佣金。因此，考慮到利率環境，也許我們會改用對我們有意義的 XOL 結構。結果成功了。

So the punchline is this, Mike, a hardening reinsurance market when it comes to the casualty lines, net-net, will be very good for us as an organization because it will force further discipline and consequently, pricing power for the primary market. And in addition to that, my colleagues on the reinsurance side, I'm sure we'll be right in there, seizing the opportunity.

因此，麥克，重點是，當涉及傷亡險種時，再保險市場的強化，網絡對我們作為一個組織來說將非常有利，因為它將迫使進一步的紀律，從而增強一級市場的定價能力。除此之外，再保險方面的同事們，我相信我們會抓住這個機會。

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe if I can sneak one last one in if Bill thinks it's a question worthy of his wisdom. Presidential election year, to the extent the outcome is for a change of the guard, is there anything market-wise, investment portfolio-wise or just interest rate-wise you guys are thinking of in terms of powder dry or pivot if that is an outcome late this year?

好的。這很有幫助。如果比爾認為這是一個值得他智慧的問題，也許我可以偷偷地插最後一個。總統選舉年，就結果而言，是換崗，你們在市場、投資組合或利率方面是否有什麼考慮，以乾粉或轉向，如果這是一個今年年底有結果嗎？

Before he answers that, I think we may need to read the safe harbor again.

在他回答之前，我認為我們可能需要再次閱讀安全港。

So I think the bottom line is we've got a $2 trillion deficit. 92% of the world's countries have deficits. There is going to be enormous demand for money. Number two, we are the only significant democratic country that doesn't have any kind of national sales tax. We have some flexibility.

所以我認為底線是我們有 2 兆美元的赤字。世界上92%的國家都有赤字。對資金的需求將會非常巨大。第二，我們是唯一一個不徵收任何國家銷售稅的重要民主國家。我們有一定的彈性。

However, you have to look at every time there's been a need to come to a conclusion, Democrat or Republican, the conclusion has been both parties spend more money. So what that tells you is spending money and not having taxes go up are cornerstone of the policies both parties have chosen to follow. At some point, we're going to have to decide someone is going to have to pay for all we're doing. And whether that's a value-added tax or increasing income taxes or whatever, we are going to have to do something and it's going to happen during the next presidential period or social security and Medicare, Medicaid are going to be in jeopardy.

然而，每次需要得出結論時，無論是民主黨還是共和黨，你都必須審視，結論是雙方都花了更多的錢。因此，這告訴你花錢而不增加稅收是雙方選擇遵循的政策的基石。在某些時候，我們將不得不決定有人必須為我們所做的一切付出代價。無論是增值稅還是增加所得稅還是其他什麼，我們都必須採取一些措施，這將在下一個總統任期內發生，否則社會安全和醫療保險、醫療補助將處於危險之中。

So I don't think it matters who's elected. That's a problem that we're going to face. It won't happen until after the election. Whoever is elected won't matter. And I think what that's going to mean is we're going to have some pressure on inflation, pressure on government spending. And I don't think that means good things or interest rates coming down. I would expect interest rates, at best, will be flat.

所以我認為誰當選並不重要。這是我們將要面對的問題。這要等到選舉之後才會發生。誰當選都不重要。我認為這意味著我們將面臨一些通膨壓力和政府支出壓力。我認為這並不意味著好事或利率下降。我預計利率充其量會持平。

I think people are biased by the fact that we had an extended period with extraordinarily low interest rates. I don't think interest rates are going to go crazy, but I don't think we're going to see them consequentially lower than they are now, probably a little higher.

我認為人們對我們長期處於極低利率這一事實存在偏見。我不認為利率會變得瘋狂，但我認為我們不會看到利率因此低於現在，可能會更高一點。

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden of Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I just had a question on the rates that you guys are seeing now in liability lines if we exclude comp and exclude financial lines. I'm wondering if you started to see evidence of those rates accelerate in the quarter -- in the fourth quarter. I'm just trying to get a sense for if we were to adjust for the mix dynamics that you just mentioned in your opening remarks, if we're actually starting to see those rates move higher in response to the environment.

我只是對你們現在在責任線中看到的利率有疑問，如果我們排除補償和排除財務線的話。我想知道您是否開始看到這些比率在本季（第四季）加速的證據。我只是想了解我們是否要針對您剛才在開場白中提到的混合動態進行調整，是否我們實際上開始看到這些利率因環境而走高。

So generally speaking, we don't break the rate data out by product line, but I guess, to give you a little bit of color, I would tell you that we are very happy with the rate increases that we are achieving in much of the liability market, to say the least. We are comfortable that putting aside some challenges within the professional liability space, the rest of it, we think that we are keeping up with trend and then some or clearing trend by a meaningful margin.

所以一般來說，我們不會按產品線細分費率數據，但我想，為了給您一點顏色，我會告訴您，我們對我們在許多方面實現的費率增長感到非常滿意至少可以說是負債市場。我們感到滿意的是，拋開專業責任領域內的一些挑戰，剩下的部分，我們認為我們正在跟上趨勢，然後以有意義的幅度進行一些或清除趨勢。

So are things better in Q4 than they were in Q3? I don't really have the specific numbers in front of me at the moment. But just from having my finger somewhat on the pulse, I am very comfortable that the underwriting environment for the lines that you're referring to is every bit as healthy in Q4 as it was earlier in the year, possibly better. And there's nothing that leads me to believe that, that momentum is going to diminish.

那麼第四季的情況比第三季更好嗎？目前我還沒有具體的數字。但僅僅透過我的手指在脈搏上，我感到非常放心，你所指的產品線的承保環境在第四季度與今年早些時候一樣健康，甚至可能更好。沒有什麼能讓我相信這種勢頭會減弱。

And quite frankly, it's just simply being driven by loss costs and the environment, which appropriately, I think, is making people focus on it more and more. So we feel like we're in a good place.

坦白說，這只是由損失成本和環境驅動的，我認為這適當地讓人們越來越關注它。所以我們感覺我們處於一個很好的位置。

That's encouraging. And then maybe if I could just move to the accident year loss ratio ex cat. So if I look at the improvement year-over-year, I was wondering -- and I know this is getting a little bit granular, but I think the prior period had some fire losses in there. Was the improvement really just the absence of those fire losses? And are we sort of at a clean baseline here going forward?

這令人鼓舞。然後也許我可以轉向事故年損失率（前貓）。因此，如果我逐年查看改進情況，我會想——我知道這有點具體，但我認為前一時期有一些火災損失。改善真的只是因為沒有那些火災損失嗎？未來我們是否處於一個乾淨的基線？

Rich, do you want to speak to that?

Rich，你想談談這個嗎？

Sure, Rob. I would say, yes, it is certainly part of the reason for the change quarter-over-quarter. We certainly, over the last few quarters, as Rob has alluded to, I think, on some of the earlier calls, been making some changes with regards to re-underwriting some of the property risk side of things. And so yes, there has been an improvement. Certainly, much progress has been made. Can't say that it's completely completed, but certainly do I anticipate a better position going forward.

當然，羅布。我想說，是的，這肯定是季度環比變化的部分原因。當然，在過去的幾個季度中，正如羅佈在之前的一些電話會議中提到的那樣，我們在重新承保某些財產風險方面做出了一些改變。是的，確實有改善。當然，已經取得了很大進展。不能說它已經完全完成，但我肯定預計未來會出現更好的情況。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

Just a couple from me on -- from an insurance growth standpoint. First one, just on professional lines. I guess I was kind of hoping that as we started lapping some of those comps from -- when this was started a year ago, maybe we'd see a little bit of better growth, but it looked like growth was down again even after being down last year in the fourth quarter. Is that not the right way to think about it? Is this aligned -- based on where market conditions are, it's...

從保險成長的角度來看，我僅舉幾個例子。第一個，只是專業方面的。我想我有點希望，當我們一年前開始進行這些比較時，也許我們會看到一點更好的成長，但看起來即使在去年第四季有所下降。這不是正確的思考方式嗎？這是一致的嗎——根據市場狀況，它是…

Are we speaking about professional -- sorry, Ryan, I'm just trying to make sure.

我們是在談論專業嗎——抱歉，瑞安，我只是想確定一下。

Professional lines, yes. I'm just trying to understand the...

專業線，是的。我只是想了解...

Yes. The skinny on that, at least through -- in my opinion is the D&O market, particularly public D&O market has been, from a pricing perspective, in somewhat of free fall. And rates went up considerably, and now they're coming back down. And then we have a view as to what rate adequacy is. And ultimately, while we're sorry to see it go, if it goes, it goes. We're not going to chase it down the drain.

是的。至少在我看來，最薄弱的是 D&O 市場，特別是公共 D&O 市場，從定價的角度來看，在某種程度上處於自由落體狀態。利率大幅上升，現在又回落了。然後我們對利率充足性有一個看法。最終，雖然我們很遺憾看到它消失，但如果它消失了，它就會消失。我們不會把它追入下水道。

In addition to D&O, a couple of other product lines that I'd call out would be medical professionals, specifically hospital professional liability where the lack of discipline in that product line over the past, quite frankly, a couple of years, I think, has given reason to pause. To our colleagues' credit, they also there have been operating with the discipline. So that's, quite frankly, having an impact on the top line as well. Other areas that I would flag, maybe one other would be architects and engineers with some of the larger accounts, where, again, we have found that the market's willing to do things we don't think makes sense and the price has come up.

除了 D&O 之外，我要提到的其他幾個產品線是醫療專業人員，特別是醫院專業責任，坦白說，過去幾年該產品線缺乏紀律，我認為，已經給出了暫停的理由。值得讚揚的是，我們的同事也一直遵守紀律。坦白說，這也對營收產生了影響。我要指出的其他領域，也許是擁有一些較大客戶的建築師和工程師，我們再次發現市場願意做我們認為沒有意義的事情，而且價格已經上漲。

So professional liability, extraordinarily broad category, just trying to give you a little bit of a flavor with some of the bigger pieces of that puzzle. But yes, there are some areas within the professional space that we still find notably attractive, particularly nonstandard. And then there are some big chunks of the professional lines, some of which I just referenced, that I think should be giving anyone who's responsible and disciplined real reason to pause.

所以專業責任，非常廣泛的類別，只是想讓你對這個難題的一些更大的部分有一點了解。但是，是的，我們仍然發現專業領域中的某些領域特別有吸引力，尤其是非標準領域。然後還有一些專業的大塊內容，其中一些是我剛剛提到的，我認為應該給任何負責任和自律的人真正的理由停下來。

Got it. And then I guess just a follow-up on the short-tail lines. Growth for the full year was like around 20%. Just trying to understand how much is the composition -- how much from a composition standpoint did that change this past year? Was it more than normal because of the rate environment? Or was most of that growth exposure and rate action on stuff you'd already been writing in 2022?

知道了。然後我想這只是短尾線的後續。全年成長率約為 20%。只是想了解構圖有多少——從構圖的角度來看，去年發生了多大變化？是否因為利率環境而超出正常水準？或者大部分成長曝光和評級行動是針對您在 2022 年已經撰寫的內容？

So it's a combination of both. As you'd expect, we're pushing pretty hard on the rate front, and it's sticking. In addition to that, as we see rate adequacy more and more attractive, then we're going to lean into that. And you would take note the growth, for example, in short-tail lines are specifically property in the reinsurance business during the '23 year. And of course, we had meaningful growth on the property front and the E&S space as well, both through our domestic businesses as well as through our London operation.

所以它是兩者的結合。正如您所期望的，我們在利率方面非常努力地推動，而且它一直在堅持。除此之外，當我們看到利率充足性越來越有吸引力時，我們將傾向於這一點。您會注意到，例如，短尾險種的成長是 23 年再保險業務中的具體財產。當然，透過我們的國內業務以及倫敦業務，我們在房地產和環境與社會領域也取得了有意義的成長。

Got it. So I guess how is like your outlook for the type of cat exposure you have? Has that changed at all?

知道了。所以我猜你對接觸貓的類型有何看法？這有什麼改變嗎？

Not meaningfully when the day is all done. I mean, as I said a few moments ago, the majority of our growth is driven by rate. So there's a lot of things where our exposure hasn't changed, but we're charging considerably more.

當這一天結束時，就沒有意義了。我的意思是，正如我剛才所說，我們的成長大部分是由利率驅動的。因此，我們的曝光率在許多方面沒有改變，但我們的收費卻要高得多。

Also, that has led to opportunity to write some additional business as well. But I don't have a specific breakout on the 20% what's rate versus exposure. But if you'd like, you're welcome to follow up with us tomorrow, and we can give you some more context.

此外，這也帶來了撰寫一些額外業務的機會。但我沒有對 20% 利率與風險敞口的具體突破進行分析。但如果您願意，歡迎您明天與我們聯繫，我們可以為您提供更多背景資訊。

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 和 KBW 的線路。

A follow-up to Ryan's question. We've seen growth in commercial auto accelerate over the last 2 quarters. And I was wondering, is there something changing in rates there? Or is that a change in exposure?

瑞安問題的後續。我們看到過去兩個季度商用汽車的成長加速。我想知道那裡的費率有什麼變化嗎？或者說這是曝光度的變化？

I think, primarily, what's driving it is we're discharging a lot more. We're getting a -- we're insisting on a lot more rates. That's a big driver. No pun intended.

我認為，主要的推動因素是我們的排放量增加了很多。我們堅持要求更高的利率。這是一個大司機。沒有雙關語的意思。

None taken. No, that's helpful. Second, I know that you've talked about sort of waiting for, let's say, accident years 2020 and subsequent to mature a little bit. I was hoping we can get a little bit of a peek in terms of what you're seeing even before you take any reserve actions on those years.

沒有採取。不，這很有幫助。其次，我知道您談到了等待 2020 年及之後的意外年份，以便稍微成熟一點。我希望我們能夠在您對這些年採取任何儲備行動之前對您所看到的情況有所了解。

Well, I would suggest you look at the paid loss ratios. I'd also -- because that's a reality. In addition to that, I would encourage you to have a look at how much IBNR we are carrying relative to case for some of those years. And further, I would encourage you to look at how much IBNR we're carrying relative to our total reserves for those years. And I think that directionally should give you something to hang your hat on.

好吧，我建議你看看有償損失率。我也會——因為這是現實。除此之外，我鼓勵您查看我們在這些年份中相對於案件的 IBNR 有多少。此外，我鼓勵您看看我們這些年的總儲備金中所持有的 IBNR 是多少。我認為這應該給你一些可以依靠的東西。

Perfect. And if I can follow on one other question really quickly. When you look back at the experience you had as you sort of expanded modestly into property cat in 2023, does that leave you wanting more or less exposure in 2024?

完美的。我是否可以很快跟進另一個問題。當您回顧 2023 年適度擴張至房地產領域的經驗時，您是否希望在 2024 年增加或減少曝光？

The answer is that, I think, that 2024 at least so far based on what we saw at 1/1 is likely to continue to provide a very good opportunity. Is it going to be quite as attractive as '23, perhaps not. But I think that even if it isn't, that doesn't mean it's no longer an attractive opportunity.

我認為，答案是，至少到目前為止，根據我們在 1/1 看到的情況，2024 年可能會繼續提供一個非常好的機會。它會像 23 年那樣有吸引力嗎？也許不會。但我認為，即使不是，也不代表它不再是一個有吸引力的機會。

So we, as far as property cat goes in a very measured way, continue to be bullish on the opportunity. But as I said earlier, we are doing a bit more, but the growth is really driven by the rate. I don't think you're going to -- you would not see a dramatic shift in our risk profile.

因此，就房地產市場的謹慎行事而言，我們繼續看好這個機會。但正如我之前所說，我們正在做更多的事情，但成長實際上是由速度驅動的。我認為你不會——你不會看到我們的風險狀況發生巨大變化。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

Rob, a couple of things here. First one, just on that, just some clarity here. So obviously, big growth in property reinsurance. What did you all do at 1/1? I'm assuming we won't see the same type of growth in 2024 that we saw in 2023 in that area. I know you were pretty opportunistic in '23.

羅布，這裡有幾件事。第一個，就這一點來說，這裡只是澄清一下。很明顯，財產再保險的大幅成長。 1月1日你們都做了什麼？我假設 2024 年該領域不會出現與 2023 年相同類型的成長。我知道你在 23 年非常投機。

I'm sorry, as far as our property writings (inaudible)?

抱歉，就我們的財產著作而言（聽不清楚）？

Property re. Property re, reinsurance.

財產重新。財產再保險，再保險。

Brian, I think that -- I think I'm happy to share that with you, but I want to check with our general counsel to make sure that I'm allowed to share that with you. But what I know I can share with you is that our general view on the property cat market at 1/1 was that it was still very attractive, maybe not quite as attractive as it was at 1/1/23; or said differently, I think the market is still very attractive, but I also believe it has peaked at least for the moment.

布萊恩，我認為我很高興與您分享這一點，但我想諮詢我們的總法律顧問，以確保我可以與您分享這一點。但我知道我可以與您分享的是，我們對 1 月 1 日的房地產貓市場的總體看法是，它仍然非常有吸引力，可能不如 2023 年 1 月 1 日那麼有吸引力；或者換句話說，我認為市場仍然非常有吸引力，但我也相信至少目前已經見頂。

Okay. Interesting. And then I guess my next question, Rob, and we talked a little bit about this earlier, the ceded reinsurance program and your flexibility there. I'm just curious. Is this kind of the time in the market that maybe you do want to retain more of that business just because rates are quite adequate? Your operating leverage is still relatively low compared to history. Why wouldn't you kind of just lean in here and retain more of it?

好的。有趣的。然後我想我的下一個問題，羅布，我們之前討論過這個問題，即分出的再保險計劃和您在那裡的靈活性。我只是好奇。在市場這個時期，您是否確實想保留更多業務，只是因為利率相當合適？與歷史相比，您的經營槓桿仍然相對較低。為什麼不靠在這裡並保留更多？

There are parts of the business that we are grappling with exactly those questions. And ultimately, the reinsurance marketplace from our perspective is that there are some people that are our partners through thick and thin, and there are some people where it's much more of a transactional relationship. Those that are our partners through thick and thin, we are not likely going to cut them off if you will. Those that are more transactional in nature, we come to the table, recognizing we are renting their capital.

我們正在部分業務中解決這些問題。最終，從我們的角度來看，再保險市場有些人是我們同甘共苦的合作夥伴，有些人則更多的是一種交易關係。那些與我們同甘共苦的合作夥伴，如果你願意的話，我們不太可能與他們斷絕關係。對於那些本質上更具交易性的公司，我們來到談判桌前，意識到我們正在租用他們的資本。

And we have a choice, whether we're going to use our own or whether we're going to rent theirs. And my colleagues are pretty good at doing the math, and we try and figure out what makes sense. So are there parts of the business where, if the reinsurance marketplace were to push us, we might exercise that option of keeping more for exactly the reasons that you're flagging?

我們可以選擇，是使用我們自己的還是租用他們的。我的同事們非常擅長數學計算，我們會試著找出有意義的內容。那麼，如果再保險市場推動我們，我們是否可能會出於您所舉報的原因，行使保留更多資金的選擇權？

Got you. And then can I ask one big picture question? I'm just curious. If I look at the industry and the commercial lines and the combined ratios and margins that companies have been reporting, and you've been pretty consistent in the last couple of years, but they're about as good as they've ever been, right, I mean, at least in ['20, '25] years. So I guess my question then is what's the client pushback there. What's the broker pushback? When you're kind of trying to push for incremental rate, and I get it that loss cost inflation is improving a little bit here, but the returns the industry is generating right now are incredibly attractive.

明白你了。然後我可以問一個大問題嗎？我只是好奇。如果我看看這個行業和商業線以及公司報告的綜合比率和利潤率，過去幾年的情況相當一致，但它們與以往一樣好，是的，我的意思是，至少在['20, '25 ] 年內。所以我想我的問題是客戶的反對是什麼。經紀人的抗拒是什麼？當你試圖推動增量利率時，我發現損失成本通膨正在略有改善，但該行業目前產生的回報非常有吸引力。

I'm not close enough to it, but I think we're using a pretty broad brush. I think that if you look back at some of the personal lines players or even some of the commercial line folks that write property books, it hasn't been necessarily a wonderful 5 years for them. Maybe it's better today.

我對此還不夠了解，但我認為我們正在使用相當廣泛的刷子。我認為，如果你回顧一些個人行玩家，甚至一些撰寫房地產書籍的商業行人士，你會發現這對他們來說並不一定是美好的五年。也許今天更好。

But when the day is all done, I think one needs to use a bit of a finer brush and really look at it at product line by product line. I think as I suggested earlier, I think Q4 is going to be a really attractive quarter for many market participants. But I don't think 2023 proved to be this remarkable experience for all carriers.

但當這一天結束後，我認為人們需要使用更細的刷子，真正逐條產品線地審視它。我認為正如我之前所建議的，我認為第四季度對許多市場參與者來說將是一個非常有吸引力的季度。但我不認為 2023 年對所有營運商來說都是非凡的經驗。

So again, do I think that the industry is in a better place today certainly for many product lines than it's been at other moments in time? Yes, I agree with that comment. But I think if you look at the total results, for a lot of insurance companies for the '23 year, not everyone's hanging their hat on a return that starts with a 2.

那麼，我是否認為當今行業的許多產品線確實比其他時候處於更好的境地？是的，我同意這個評論。但我認為，如果你看一下23年很多保險公司的整體業績，並不是每個人都對以2開頭的回報表示滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

This is probably a Rich question here. I'm looking at the traditional investment income and stepped up materially $249 million in the third quarter. You're about 280 -- have 288, I think can change for this quarter. That's a pretty large step-up in -- the implied yield stepped up a lot. Is there any onetime type of coupons or onetime dividends in that number? Or is that a good approximation of where the yield on the book was through the fourth quarter?

這可能是一個豐富的問題。我關注的是傳統投資收入，第三季大幅增加了 2.49 億美元。你大約是 280 歲——有 288 歲，我認為這個季度可能會改變。這是一個相當大的提升——隱含收益率提升了很多。該數字中是否存在一次性優惠券或一次性股息？或者說這是第四季帳面收益率的一個很好的近似值？

So we have seen an increase, Josh, in the overall book yield. I'd say, from a fixed maturity perspective, we certainly have been able to deploy capital and reinvest at higher rates, as Rob was alluding to earlier in some of his remarks in terms of where the new money rate is and where the roll-off is. So certainly, that's been a big contributor to it.

喬什，我們看到總圖書收益率增加。我想說，從固定期限的角度來看，我們當然能夠以更高的利率部署資本和再投資，正如羅伯在他早些時候的一些言論中提到的那樣，關於新貨幣利率和滾動利率的情況。奧夫群島當然，這是一個很大的貢獻者。

We did have a little bit of an uptick, if you will, with regards to some securities that we own in Argentina that are inflation adjusted as well. So that did create a little bit of an uptick. But I would tell you that the book yield in the quarter, I would say, core would be around 4.7%, which is certainly up from where we were at the end of the third quarter.

如果你願意的話，我們在阿根廷擁有的一些經過通膨調整的證券確實有一點上漲。所以這確實造成了一點點的上升。但我想告訴你，本季的核心帳面殖利率將在 4.7% 左右，這肯定高於第三季末的水平。

And you spoke, Rob, about the new money yield being in excess of 5% right now, and given all the chatter and whatnot about rates and everything, a lot may have even happened since the new year began. Is there any desire or action going on at the company? Duration's still 2.4 years. Is there intention to crystallize some of the yield at these higher yields available in the market right now?

Rob，你談到目前新的貨幣收益率超過 5%，考慮到所有關於利率和其他事情的討論，自新年開始以來甚至可能發生了很多事情。公司是否有任何願望或行動？工期還有2.4年。是否打算以目前市場上可獲得的較高產量來結晶一些產量？

So Josh, our goal is -- if the opportunity presents itself to move that duration out a bit from here, if that is your question, I want to make sure I'm understanding it. We're going to move it out and...

所以喬希，我們的目標是——如果有機會將這個持續時間從這裡推遲一點，如果這是你的問題，我想確保我理解它。我們要把它搬出去然後...

Yes. I mean (inaudible) this works, too, yes. Same way -- different way of putting it.

是的。我的意思是（聽不清楚）這也有效，是的。同樣的方式——不同的說法。

Yes. So our desire is to move it out, but we're going to move it out when we see the window of opportunity. So would we like to see that move out to 2.5, 2.6, 2.7 over time? Yes, we would, but we're going to do that in a way that makes sense. So I would encourage you to stay tuned. And we're -- there's a lot of volatility in the world. And when we see the things working with us, we're going to try and lean into that window. But we're just trying to roll with the punches, and again, it's a remarkable volatility.

是的。因此，我們的願望是將其移出，但當我們看到機會之窗時，我們就會將其移出。那麼我們希望看到隨著時間的推移，它會升級到 2.5、2.6、2.7 嗎？是的，我們會的，但我們將以有意義的方式來做這件事。所以我鼓勵您繼續關注。世界上存在著很多波動。當我們看到事情與我們合作時，我們將嘗試依靠那個視窗。但我們只是想隨波逐流，再說一次，這是一個顯著的波動。

And one last investment-oriented question. Given the macro outlook for things at this point in time, does it make sense to lean in and perhaps contribute more of the portfolio to the investment fund type of investments?

最後一個以投資為導向的問題。考慮到目前的宏觀前景，是否有必要向投資基金類型的投資傾斜並貢獻更多的投資組合？

Actually, I think, at this stage, quite the contrary. We're very pleased with what the traditional fixed income portfolio is offering us. And I think just as a general mix, while I don't see us exiting alternatives, I don't think that there's the same level of encouragement or it's not as compelling to look in the alternative directions as it once was given where fixed income rates still are.

事實上，我認為，在現階段，情況恰恰相反。我們對傳統固定收益投資組合為我們提供的服務感到非常滿意。我認為，作為一個總體組合，雖然我不認為我們有現有的替代方案，但我認為沒有同等程度的鼓勵，或者不像固定收益曾經那樣有說服力地尋找替代方向利率仍然是。

Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Yaron Kinar 和 Jefferies 的對話。

Just first question, just looking at the property market, so it sounds like maybe [steep] but still pretty attractive returns there. I think you guys have gone through some remediation efforts on the property book as well. I guess with that in mind, as we look at '24, if I [heard] your costs correctly, you're still thinking of growing that book more through rate than through exposures. Is that correct? And why not lean more into exposure?

第一個問題，看看房地產市場，聽起來可能[陡峭]，但那裡的回報仍然相當有吸引力。我認為你們也對財產簿進行了一些補救工作。我想考慮到這一點，當我們看看 24 年時，如果我[聽到]你的成本正確的話，你仍然在考慮通過速度而不是通過曝光來增加這本書。那是對的嗎？為什麼不更多地重視曝光呢？

I want to draw a distinction. First off, as far as things peaking, that comment was suggested that they may be peaking in the property cat market, and I'd like to draw a distinction between the primary or insurance market versus the reinsurance market. And in addition to that, I would suggest that it's important to draw a distinction between the property cat market versus the property risk reinsurance market because they are clearly not one and the same in our opinion.

我想區分一下。首先，就見頂而言，該評論表明房地產市場可能正在見頂，我想區分一級市場或保險市場與再保險市場。除此之外，我建議區分財產貓市場和財產風險再保險市場很重要，因為我們認為它們顯然不是一回事。

As far as our desire to grow the business, look, if we like the margin, we are going to lean into it. And I think that, at the moment, generally speaking, we like the opportunity that continues to exist in the reinsurance marketplace when it comes to property, and we are certainly paying attention to a lot of the opportunity that exists in the primary property insurance space, particularly as it relates to E&S in the commercial lines and of course, not to be forgotten, our colleagues at Berkley One on the high net worth front, the opportunity for rate both on the admitted basis as well as just as a reminder, they are using nonadmitted paper as well, is creating meaningful opportunity also.

就我們發展業務的願望而言，如果我們喜歡利潤，我們就會投入其中。我認為，目前，總的來說，我們喜歡再保險市場中繼續存在的財產保險機會，而且我們當然也在關注主要財產保險領域中存在的許多機會，特別是因為它與商業領域的E&S 相關，當然，不要忘記，我們伯克利一號在高淨值方面的同事，在承認的基礎上以及只是提醒一下，利率的機會，他們也使用非承認的論文，也創造了有意義的機會。

That's helpful. And then my second question, and I'm not sure if you'd be willing to answer this at this stage.

這很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題，我不確定你現階段是否願意回答這個問題。

When in doubt, ask.

如有疑問，請詢問。

I'll try. The -- when we see the 10-K and maybe even the Schedule P later on in the year and we look at the results from this quarter, would we see a similar trend to what we've seen so far year-to-date, namely maybe some strengthening in liability reserves of older vintages offset by favorable releases in 2020 through '22?

我會盡力。 - 當我們在今年晚些時候看到 10-K 甚至可能是 Schedule P 時，我們會看到本季度的結果，我們會看到與今年迄今為止所看到的類似趨勢嗎？ ，也就是說，較舊年份的責任儲備可能有所增強，但會被2020 年至22 年的有利釋放所抵銷？

I think directionally, yes, you will see that. Do I think that we are very far or well on our way to having '15 through '19 behind us? Yes, I do. Do I think that it's done? Probably not.

我認為，是的，你會看到這一點。我是否認為我們距離 15 至 19 年已經過去很遠了？是的，我願意。我認為這已經完成了嗎？可能不會。

Look, we take a different approach than some other organizations when it comes to monitoring our reserves and trying to make sure that we're getting it right. There are some folks that just ignore it for quarter after quarter, year after year. And then all of a sudden, they have this giant problem that they need to deal with, and they take this massive charge.

看，在監控我們的儲備並努力確保我們做得正確方面，我們採取了與其他一些組織不同的方法。有些人年復一年地忽視它。然後突然間，他們遇到了需要處理的巨大問題，並且承擔了巨大的責任。

We take a different approach. Our view is we're looking at it every 90 days or more frequently, and we're tweaking it to where we think it needs to be. And we think that that's the more sensible approach. So again, you'll see the information, but I think that we continue to be very optimistic about the more recent years and how that's going to play out.

我們採取不同的方法。我們的觀點是，我們每 90 天或更頻繁地查看一次，並將其調整到我們認為需要的位置。我們認為這是更明智的方法。再說一次，你會看到這些訊息，但我認為我們對最近幾年以及這將如何發展仍然非常樂觀。

Do I -- clearly, some of that good news has been used along the way as we've had some challenges coming out of the older years. I think, again, those challenges are in the rearview mirror and shrinking by the minute. And I think there continues to be a lot of encouraging signs, as I referenced earlier, around the amount of IBNR we continue to carry in some of the more recent years.

顯然，一些好消息一直被利用，因為我們在過去的歲月中遇到了一些挑戰。我再次認為，這些挑戰已經成為過去，並且不斷縮小。正如我之前提到的，我認為近年來我們繼續持有的 IBNR 數量仍然存在許多令人鼓舞的跡象。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·斯科特（Alex Scott）。

I just have one quick one for you. You guys have been very good real estate investors over time. I thought I'd sort of ask you a similar question to what Mike asked you before. Just what kind of opportunity is there in real estate? Obviously, fixed income is a lot more attractive right now at higher yields. But are you seeing any stabilizing trends in the real estate market?

我只是為你準備了一份快速的。長期以來，你們一直是非常優秀的房地產投資者。我想我會問你一個與麥克之前問過你的問題類似的問題。房地產到底有什麼樣的機會？顯然，目前固定收益產品的收益率更高，更具吸引力。但您是否看到房地產市場穩定趨勢？

As far as real estate goes, clearly, there's been a lot of opportunity. Residential has been reasonably stable and has been a good place to be. Particularly, commercial on the office front has been more challenging. Fortunately, for us, we own some very high-quality assets and feel like we're in a very good place there, both with the quality of the assets as well as the occupancy, et cetera, et cetera.

就房地產而言，顯然存在著許多機會。住宅區相當穩定，是個好地方。特別是，辦公室方面的商業更具挑戰性。幸運的是，對我們來說，我們擁有一些非常優質的資產，並且感覺我們處於一個非常好的位置，無論是資產品質還是入住率等等。

Are there going to be opportunities? We're paying close attention. But when you look at where the fixed income market is, the hurdle, if you will, for alternatives, including direct or indirect real estate is that much higher. So are we paying attention if there was a great opportunity, are we prepared to step forward? Yes, but that hurdle is considerably higher when you look at where we can do with new money on the fixed income portfolio, which gives us good yield, good liquidity, and this risk adjusted, we like it.

會有機會嗎？我們正在密切關注。但當你看看固定收益市場的情況時，如果你願意的話，包括直接或間接房地產在內的替代品的障礙要高得多。那麼，如果有一個很好的機會，我們是否會關注，是否準備好踏出第一步？是的，但是當你看看我們可以在固定收益投資組合中用新資金做什麼時，這個障礙要高得多，這給我們帶來了良好的收益率、良好的流動性，並且經過了風險調整，我們喜歡它。

And your final question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

您的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Scott Heleniak。

Yes. Just had 2 quick questions here. Just Ian asked, you talked about to be an attractive market here. The submission count, sounds like it's pretty encouraging still. Can you just -- can you comment more on the submission count for Q4 versus the past few quarters, how that's trended and where you're kind of seeing the most opportunity there, if there's any particular lines or areas where it's changed much?

是的。只是有兩個簡單的問題。剛才伊恩問，你談到這裡是個有吸引力的市場。提交數量聽起來仍然相當令人鼓舞。您能否對第四季度的提交數量與過去幾季的提交數量進行更多評論，趨勢如何，以及您在哪裡看到最多的機會，是否有任何特定的行或領域發生了很大的變化？

So the answer is that it remains as -- give or take, as robust as ever, and we remain very encouraged as far. As where the most encouraging opportunities are, that's not something that we're going to be broadcasting. I would tell you that products liability has been an area that the standard market seems to continue to have an unquenchable thirst for.

所以答案是，它仍然是——給予或索取，一如既往的強勁，到目前為止我們仍然非常鼓舞。由於最令人鼓舞的機會在哪裡，這不是我們要廣播的內容。我想告訴您，產品責任一直是標準市場似乎繼續有著無法抑制的慾望的領域。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then just the last one is you mentioned some start-ups that you had during the year. How many of those did you have in particular? And are you able to talk about what the premium is on those? Just -- if you don't have it now, I can get it later. I don't know if you give that out. But is there anything more you can comment on that?

好的。感謝。最後一個是您提到了這一年中的一些新創公司。您特別擁有其中的多少個？您能談談這些的溢價嗎？只是——如果你現在沒有，我稍後可以得到。我不知道你是否把它發出來。但您對此還有什麼可以評論的嗎？

Scott, what I'd recommend, if it's acceptable to you, is that you follow up with Karen and Rich, and they'll have a better sense as to what we can share and what we can't. I don't want to get all of us in trouble with the SEC or anyone else in that matter.

斯科特，如果您可以接受的話，我建議您跟進凱倫和里奇，他們會更好地了解我們可以分享什麼和不能分享什麼。我不想讓我們所有人在這件事上給美國證券交易委員會或其他任何人帶來麻煩。

I will turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley for closing remarks.

我將把電話轉交給 Rob Berkley 先生做總結發言。

Okay. Sarah, thank you very much, and thank you to all of the participants. We appreciate your time. I think the quarter speaks for itself. The year speaks for itself. The organization continues to perform at a high level. And as suggested earlier, perhaps the most exciting news is how well positioned we are for not this '24 but likely '25 and beyond. We thank you again for your time, and we look forward to speaking with you in April. Have a good evening.

好的。莎拉，非常感謝你，也感謝所有參與者。我們感謝您的寶貴時間。我認為這個季度本身就說明了一切。年份本身就說明了一切。該組織繼續保持高水準運作。正如前面所提到的，也許最令人興奮的消息是，我們在 24 年以及以後可能的情況下處於多麼有利的位置。我們再次感謝您抽出寶貴的時間，我們期待在四月與您交談。祝你晚上愉快。

This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。