W R Berkley Corp (WRB) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to W.R. Berkley Corporation's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded. The speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, believes, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will, in fact, be achieved.

大家好，歡迎參加 W.R. Berkley Corporation 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音。演講者的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。一些前瞻性陳述可以透過使用前瞻性字詞來識別，包括但不限於相信、預期或估計。我們提醒您，此類前瞻性聲明不應被視為我們表示我們預期的未來計劃、估計或期望實際上將會實現。

Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year end December 31, 2022, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. W. R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

請參閱我們截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件，以了解我們經營所在的商業環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素的描述。 W. R. Berkley Corporation 不承擔任何義務，並明確聲明不承擔任何更新或更改其前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給羅布·伯克利先生。請繼續，先生。

Lisa, thank you very much, and good afternoon all. And I guess a second welcome to our Q3 call. We appreciate you dialing in and your time and your interest today. Joining me on the call at least on this end is Bill Berkley, Executive Chair; as well as Rich Baio, EVP and Chief Financial Officer.

麗莎，非常感謝你，大家午安。我想再次歡迎您參加我們的第三季電話會議。感謝您今天撥通電話、抽​​出時間並感興趣。至少在這方面與我一起參加電話會議的是執行主席比爾·伯克利 (Bill Berkley)。以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rich Baio。

We're going to follow our typical agenda where momentarily, I'll be handing it over to Rich, he's going to give us a bit of an overview and flag some highlights from the quarter. I will follow with a few comments of my own and then we'll be pleased to open it up for Q&A.

我們將遵循我們的典型議程，我將暫時將其交給 Rich，他將為我們提供一些概述並標記本季度的一些亮點。接下來我將發表一些我自己的評論，然後我們很樂意開放它進行問答。

Before I do hand it to Rich, I just wanted to make a couple of quick observations and really one macro one in particular, and that is on the results of the quarter. I think by any measure, call it, a 20% return is really an outstanding result. The fact is there were no one-time this or one-time that in there. That is truly when you strip it down to its fundamentals, that is how the business is performing.

在我把它交給里奇之前，我只想做一些快速的觀察，特別是一個宏觀的觀察，那就是本季的結果。我認為無論以何種標準衡量，20% 的回報率確實是一個了不起的結果。事實上，那裡沒有一次性的這個或一次性的那個。當你將其剝離到其基本面時，這確實是業務的表現方式。

And these great results are really a reflection of a team. This is a team sport, not an individual sport. So my congratulations to all of our colleagues throughout the organization on a job very well done. I have the good fortune of being their mouthpiece in these types of settings. But again, this achievement was a team achievement.

這些偉大的成績確實是團隊的展現。這是一項團隊運動，而不是個人運動。因此，我祝賀整個組織的所有同事，他們的工作做得非常出色。我很幸運能夠在這些類型的環境中成為他們的代言人。但同樣，這項成就是團隊的成就。

To that end, obviously, it was a quarter where the organization was able to demonstrate our value proposition to capital. The idea of less risk for more return. We've talked to you all in the past about how we are preoccupied with the concept that we refer to as risk-adjusted return.

為此，顯然，該組織能夠在這個季度向資本展示我們的價值主張。降低風險以獲得更多回報的想法。我們過去曾與大家討論過我們如何專注於我們所說的風險調整回報這個概念。

You can see it in moments like these that we just saw in Q3 very clearly, when as our Chairman says, the tide goes out, you get to see who's where and what. You could see it in both aspects of our business activities, one being underwriting, the other one being investing. Our underwriting results of a combined of 90 during a period that had meaningful cat activity is really exceptional.

您可以在我們剛剛在第三季度看到的這樣的時刻非常清楚地看到這一點，正如我們的主席所說，當潮水退去時，您可以看到誰在哪里以及什麼。你可以在我們業務活動的兩個方面看到這一點，一是承保，二是投資。在發生有意義的貓活動期間，我們的核保結果總計為 90，這確實非常出色。

Additionally, on the investing activity, clearly, a book yield of 4.5%, while maintaining a quality of AA- and additionally, a new money rate of approximately 6%. That is no accident either. These results, these achievements are a result of our colleagues their focus, their discipline and their expertise.

此外，在投資活動方面，顯然，帳面收益率為 4.5%，同時保持 AA 級質量，此外，新貨幣利率約為 6%。這也絕非偶然。這些成果、這些成就都是我們同事的專注、紀律和專業知識的結果。

This call certainly is about reviewing what happened in the third quarter, but I would suggest even more than that, it is about how the table is set, not just for the coming quarters, but the next several years. So I think we are very well positioned. I think there is a fair amount of visibility. We will be getting into that in a bit more detail later in the call.

這次電話會議當然是為了回顧第三季度發生的事情，但我建議更重要的是，它是關於如何制定表格，不僅僅是未來幾個季度，而是未來幾年。所以我認為我們處於非常有利的位置。我認為有相當多的可見度。我們將在稍後的電話會議中更詳細地討論這一點。

But at this moment, let me hand it over to Rich, and he's going to walk us through some numbers. Rich, if you would, please.

但現在，讓我把它交給里奇，他將向我們介紹一些數字。里奇，如果你願意的話，請你。

Of course. Thanks, Rob, appreciate it. Net income increased 45.7% to $334 million or $1.23 per share with a return on equity of 19.8%. Operating income increased 30.1% to $367 million or $1.35 per share, with an operating return on equity of 21.7%. The company's strong performance was driven by another quarter of significant underwriting profits bringing the 9-months year-to-date to a record, despite consecutive quarters of outsized industry-wide catastrophe losses.

當然。謝謝，羅布，很感激。淨利潤成長 45.7%，達到 3.34 億美元，即每股 1.23 美元，股本回報率為 19.8%。營業收入成長 30.1%，達到 3.67 億美元，即每股 1.35 美元，營業股本回報率為 21.7%。儘管全行業連續幾季出現巨額災難性損失，但該公司的強勁業績得益於又一個季度的可觀承保利潤，使今年迄今的 9 個月業績創下歷史新高。

In addition, net investment income accelerated throughout the year to yet another quarterly record. Drilling further into the underwriting results, net premiums written grew 10.5% to a record of more than $2.8 billion. We significantly grew the insurance business by approximately 17.5% in other liability, short tail lines and commercial automobile through rate and exposure.

此外，投資淨收益全年加速，再創季度紀錄。進一步深入研究承保業績，淨承保保費成長 10.5%，達到創紀錄的超過 28 億美元。透過費率和風險敞口，我們的其他責任險、短尾險險和商用汽車保險業務顯著增長了約 17.5%。

Decreases in workers' compensation and certain professional lines certainly tempered the growth in net premiums written, bringing the overall insurance segment growth to 12.1%. The Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment was flat quarter-over-quarter with continued growth in Monoline Excess and property reinsurance.

工人薪資和某些專業險種的下降無疑抑制了淨承保保費的成長，使保險部門的整體成長率達到 12.1%。再保險和單一保險超額部分與上一季持平，單一保險超額保險和財產再保險持續成長。

Pretax underwriting income was $259 million with the calendar year combined ratio of 90.2%. The current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophe losses, was 87.9%. Current accident year catastrophe losses in the quarter were $62 million or 2.3 loss ratio points compared with $94 million in the prior year quarter or 3.9 loss ratio points.

稅前承保收入為2.59億美元，歷年綜合成本率為90.2%。當前事故年綜合成本率（不包括災難損失）為 87.9%。本季目前事故年度巨災損失為 6,200 萬美元，損失比為 2.3 個百分點，而去年同期為 9,400 萬美元，損失比為 3.9 個百分點。

The prior year favorable development was approximately $1 million, and the current accident year loss ratio ex cats was 59.6%. The expense ratio increased 0.3 points to 28.3% from the prior year and remains in line with our 9-months year-to-date. The small increase is attributable to the same items we've communicated during the past couple of quarters, that being the change in outward reinsurance structures impacting ceding commissions and increased compensation costs along with start-up operating unit expenses.

上一年的有利發展約為 100 萬美元，目前事故年度損失率為 59.6%。費用率比前一年增加 0.3 個百分點，達到 28.3%，與年初至今 9 個月的情況一致。小幅成長歸因於我們在過去幾季中溝通過的相同項目，即影響分出佣金的外向再保險結構的變化以及補償成本的增加以及新創營運單位費用的增加。

We also continue to invest in technology and areas to drive operational efficiencies. Record quarterly net investment income of $271 million grew by 33.6%, with the core investment portfolio increasing by 59.3%. There are two main drivers for the significant increase in the core portfolio, including the rising interest rate environment, benefiting the reinvestment of fixed maturity securities as they mature or are redeemed.

我們也繼續投資技術和領域以提高營運效率。創紀錄的季度淨投資收入成長 33.6%，達到 2.71 億美元，其中核心投資組合成長 59.3%。核心投資組合大幅成長有兩個主要驅動因素，其中包括不斷上升的利率環境，有利於固定期限證券到期或贖回時的再投資。

And second, the increase in the size of the portfolio due to continuous record levels of operating cash flows. In the third quarter, we reported another record level of operating cash flow of almost $1.1 billion. To put some context around this point, the book yield has grown from 3.8% in the first quarter of 2023 to 4.2% in the second quarter, to 4.5% in the current quarter on fixed maturity securities.

其次，由於經營現金流量持續創紀錄水平，投資組合規模增加。第三季度，我們的營運現金流再創新高，達到近 11 億美元。為了說明這一點，固定期限證券的帳面收益率已從 2023 年第一季的 3.8% 成長到第二季的 4.2%，再成長到本季的 4.5%。

The current 9-month year-to-date book yield of 4.2% compares to 2.6% for the prior year period. It's also worth noting that almost 81% of our net invested assets are in fixed maturity securities, cash and cash equivalents. The credit quality of the fixed maturity securities remained strong at AA- and the duration's ticked up to 2.4 years from the consecutive quarter of 2.3 years.

目前 9 個月的年初至今帳面收益率為 4.2%，而去年同期為 2.6%。另外值得注意的是，我們有近 81% 的淨投資資產投資於固定期限證券、現金和現金等價物。固定期限證券的信用品質仍維持在AA-級，久期從連續一個季度的2.3年升至2.4年。

Partially offsetting the increase in the core portfolio is net investment income from investment funds. You may recall this asset class is generally reported on a 1-quarter lag and will more closely correlate with the broader equity markets. Accordingly, reported net investment income from investment funds was approximately $4 million representing a marginal improvement from the first half of 2023.

投資基金的淨投資收入部分抵銷了核心投資組合的成長。您可能還記得，該資產類別的報告通常落後 1 個季度，並且與更廣泛的股票市場的相關性更為密切。因此，報告的投資基金淨投資收入約為 400 萬美元，較 2023 年上半年略有改善。

We continue to proactively manage our capital position, as you saw our announcement of the $0.50 special dividend per share late in the third quarter in addition to our regular quarterly dividend. This brings total capital return to investors on a year-to-date basis to approximately $775 million, with stockholders' equity increasing to more than $6.9 billion. Book value per share before dividends and share repurchases on a year-to-date basis has increased 13.7%.

我們繼續積極管理我們的資本狀況，正如您所看到的，除了我們的常規季度股息外，我們還在第三季末宣布了每股 0.50 美元的特別股息。這使得投資者今年迄今的總資本回報達到約 7.75 億美元，股東權益增加至超過 69 億美元。年初至今，扣除股利和股票回購之前的每股帳面價值成長了 13.7%。

And with that, I'll turn it back to you, Rob.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給你，羅布。

Rich, thanks very much. That was great. So I'm just going to offer a couple of other quick observations on the quarter and how we see things unfolding from here. And then again, we'll move on to the Q&A. Rich touched on the topline, obviously, building momentum, again as promised. Just as a reminder to some number of quarters ago, we agreed to disagree with a couple of partners as to what we thought was an adequate rate. They did not think that we needed that much rate. And again, we decided to part ways that had a meaningful impact to the negative on our topline.

豐富，非常感謝。那很棒。因此，我將提供有關本季度的其他一些快速觀察，以及我們如何看待事情的發展。然後，我們將繼續進行問答。里奇顯然觸及了營收，並再次如承諾的那樣建立了勢頭。正如幾個季度前的提醒一樣，我們同意不同意幾個合作夥伴關於我們認為適當的利率的觀點。他們認為我們不需要那麼多的利率。我們再次決定分道揚鑣，這對我們的營收產生了重大的負面影響。

That pigs' making its way through the python to the extent that it's of interest that was in the auto line. So we wish them well and we'll see how that unfolds.

那些豬在蟒蛇中穿行，以至於汽車生產線中的人們很感興趣。所以我們祝他們一切順利，我們將看看事情會如何發展。

Speaking of different products, obviously, the marketplace for the past 12, 18, 24 months or so has been very focused on property and with good reason. I would suggest to you, as we've commented in past quarters, Auto liability is one that people need to continue to pay close attention to. I think as far as product lines, when it comes to social inflation, auto liability has the biggest bull's eye on its chest and by extension, that clearly spills over to excess and as well as umbrella.

說到不同的產品，顯然，過去 12、18、24 個月左右的時間市場一直非常關注房地產，這是有充分理由的。我建議您，正如我們在過去幾季所評論的那樣，汽車責任是人們需要繼續密切關注的問題。我認為就產品線而言，當涉及社會通貨膨脹時，汽車責任是最大的靶心，推而廣之，這顯然會溢出到過度和保護傘上。

That having been said, just in general, social inflation continues to burn, and we do not see that abating anytime soon. Quick comment on workers' comp. I know we've touched on this in the past, we continue to be of the view that one needs to be very mindful of medical cost trend. We went through a period of time where it was pretty benign. We think that is shifting very quickly. We've touched on it in the past. We think it's going to become more and more into focus for a broader audience over the coming quarters.

話雖如此，總體而言，社會通貨膨脹仍在繼續，我們認為這種情況不會很快減弱。對工人補償的快速評論。我知道我們過去已經談過這個問題，我們仍然認為人們需要非常注意醫療費用趨勢。我們經歷了一段非常溫和的時期。我們認為這種情況正在迅速轉變。我們過去已經觸及過它。我們認為，在未來幾個季度，它將越來越成為更廣泛受眾的焦點。

In addition to that, the benefit that comp was getting, both as it relates to COVID and frequency. And then on the heels of COVID, a tight labor market and wage inflation, I think those benefits have run their course and clearly, wage inflation is slowing.

除此之外，comp 還獲得了與新冠病毒和頻率相關的好處。然後，在新冠疫情、勞動市場緊張和工資上漲之後，我認為這些福利已經結束，而且薪資上漲顯然正在放緩。

I mentioned a moment ago, the topic of social inflation. We are very focused on it. You can see it in our rate increases, ex comp coming in at 8.5%. We have every intention of continuing to stay on top of it. We think the market is accepting our rate increases and you can see that, in part, demonstrated by our renewal retention ratio continues to be at approximately a steady 80%. Another number that I find useful perhaps others do as well, is the paid loss ratio. This is a number that we flagged for you all in the past. Again, coming in at a very healthy 47.9% for the quarter.

我剛才提到了社會通貨膨脹的話題。我們非常關注它。您可以從我們的加息中看到這一點，扣除補償後的利率為 8.5%。我們決心繼續保持領先地位。我們認為市場正在接受我們的費率上調，您可以看到，我們的續約保留率繼續穩定在 80% 左右，這在一定程度上證明了這一點。我發現另一個有用的數字也許其他人也有用，那就是有償損失率。這是我們過去為大家標記的號碼。本季再次達到非常健康的 47.9%。

Which obviously, given where we are booking the business, would lead one to believe that the strength of our IBNR speaks for itself and would encourage people to look at our IBNR relative to case and IBNR relative to total reserves to the extent you're interested in the topic.

顯然，考慮到我們在哪裡預訂業務，這會讓人們相信我們的 IBNR 實力不言而喻，並會鼓勵人們在您感興趣的範圍內查看我們相對於案例的 IBNR 以及相對於總準備金的 IBNR在主題中。

As far as the investment portfolio goes, again, Rich, went into some detail on this. I touched on it earlier. But without a doubt, it's not just about the 4.5% that we're getting on the book yield. I think the bigger story is the new money rate today, give or take, 6%. You compound that with the strength of the cash flow that the business is experiencing, I think it's, again, setting a table for a very encouraging future.

就投資組合而言，里奇再次對此進行了詳細介紹。我之前有提到過。但毫無疑問，我們獲得的不僅僅是 4.5% 的帳面收益率。我認為更大的故事是今天的新貨幣利率，或多或少，6%。再加上企業正在經歷的現金流的強勁，我認為這再次為一個非常令人鼓舞的未來奠定了基礎。

The duration we did bump out from [2.3 to 2.4], I think it's more likely than not over time, you're going to continue to see that push out. But the fact is having kept it short the way we have has given us greater flexibility to take advantage of the higher rates in a more immediate or over a shorter period of time.

我們確實從 [2.3 到 2.4] 的持續時間，我認為隨著時間的推移，你將繼續看到這種推出。但事實是，我們保持較短的期限給了我們更大的靈活性，可以在更直接或更短的時間內利用更高的利率。

Yes. Finally, and perhaps a little bit on the forward-looking and picking up on the comments about the investment portfolio. Nobody knows with certainty what tomorrow will bring and there certainly is the potential for volatility to be around the corner. That having been said, you can see the business' ability to weather a choppy time as far as cat activity. You can see the rate increases that we are getting. And you can see how, quite frankly, I should say, we can see where the book yield is going.

是的。最後，或許還有一點關於投資組合的前瞻性和評論。沒有人確切地知道明天會發生什麼，並且肯定有可能出現波動。話雖如此，就貓的活動而言，您可以看到該企業度過動盪時期的能力。您可以看到我們獲得的費率上漲。我應該說，坦白說，你可以看到我們如何了解帳面收益率的走向。

So that all having been said, I think it's very clear where the -- how the business is positioned for the coming quarters and the coming years and the earnings power of the business is likely to be accelerating from here Lisa, I'm going to pause there, and why don't we go ahead and open it up for Q&A.

綜上所述，我認為非常清楚的是，未來幾個季度和未來幾年的業務定位如何，以及業務的盈利能力可能會從這裡開始加速，麗莎，我將暫停一下，我們為什麼不繼續進行問答呢？

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Mike Zaremski with BMO.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski 提出的第一個問題。

Maybe to your comments about the table being set and kind of a bit more visibility. Is it -- I just want to -- want to just make sure that this visibility is increasing coming from the investment income, whereas kind of you do talk about there being still continued uncertainty on social inflation and medical cost trends, et cetera. Just curious to the latter comments, has Berkley changed its kind of view at all materially over the last couple of months or a few months on loss cost trends?

也許是為了您對餐桌設置的評論以及更多的可見性。我只是想確保投資收入帶來的可見性不斷增加，而您確實談到社會通膨和醫療成本趨勢等方面仍然存在持續的不確定性。只是對後面的評論感到好奇，伯克利在過去幾個月或幾個月內對損失成本趨勢的看法是否發生了重大改變？

I think social inflation continues to be a challenge. But if you look at the rate increases that we are achieving ex comp of 8.5%, I think that we are in a comfortable position to be able to more likely than not absorb whatever that inflation trend is sending our way.

我認為社會通貨膨脹仍然是一個挑戰。但如果你看一下我們實現的 8.5% 的預期利率上漲，我認為我們處於一個有利的位置，能夠更有可能吸收通膨趨勢帶來的任何影響。

So do I think there's opportunity for the underwriting result to show improvement over time? Yes, I do. That having been said, when we're generating a 20% return, there is no need to push the envelope. I think if you look at the paid loss ratio and how it's been running for some number of quarters, that should be a pretty good leading indicator.

那麼我認為承保結果是否有機會隨著時間的推移而有所改善？是的，我願意。話雖如此，當我們產生 20% 的回報時，就沒有必要挑戰極限。我認為，如果你看看有償損失率以及它在幾個季度的運行情況，這應該是一個非常好的領先指標。

As far as the investment portfolio goes to the point that you raised, Mike, I think it's pretty straightforward. You can see what the new money rate is, you know what the duration is. And you can -- it's not that hard to calculate the upside from here.

就投資組合而言，麥克，我認為這非常簡單。您可以看到新的貨幣利率是多少，您知道期限是多少。你可以——從這裡計算出好處並不難。

And as time goes by, we're just locking in every day, higher and higher rates and pushing that duration out. So from my perspective, certainly, there's a lot of upside on the investment portfolio, but I would encourage people not to discount the opportunity on the underwriting side either.

隨著時間的推移，我們只是鎖定每天越來越高的利率，並將持續時間推後。因此，從我的角度來看，投資組合當然有很多好處，但我鼓勵人們也不要低估核保方面的機會。

Okay. Understood. And maybe as a follow-up on the topline growth, and you mentioned there were some partners you part away with that might have led to some of the de-sell. I don't know if that was last year, but this year, we're seeing some momentum in the topline MPW's spike up pricing, let's say, being flattish. Any story underlying that you'd like to share on trend line?

好的。明白了。也許作為營收成長的後續行動，您提到您放棄了一些合作夥伴，這可能導致了一些出售。我不知道去年是否如此，但今年，我們看到 MPW 的頂線定價出現了一些上漲的勢頭，比如說，價格持平。您想在趨勢線上分享任何潛在的故事嗎？

I think it's just at least what I was trying to articulate to make a long story short. The momentum is returning on the topline because those relationships that we're in the process of parting ways with are getting towards the tail-end and the impact on the topline is diminishing with every passing quarter as a result of that, it's impacting the overall less and less.

我認為這至少是我試圖長話短說地表達的內容。營收的勢頭正在恢復，因為我們正在分道揚鑣的那些關係正在接近尾聲，並且對營收的影響隨著每個季度的過去而逐漸減弱，因此，它影響了整體越來越少。

In addition to that, the other piece that I should mention is there are parts of the professional liability market that are really, really competitive, and we're just not going to follow things down the drain if we -- it doesn't make sense, we're not going to do it. And it's a similar story with workers' comp. Fortunately, there's lots of opportunities in other parts of the marketplace, and we are going after those, and that's what's driving the growth that you see. And I think you're more likely than not to see more of that. Sure. Is the rate increase, a component of it? Yes. But it's certainly not the whole story.

除此之外，我應該提到的另一件事是，專業責任市場的某些部分確實非常具有競爭力，如果我們不這樣做，我們就不會繼續下去。從某種意義上說，我們不會這樣做。工人補償的情況也類似。幸運的是，市場的其他部分有很多機會，我們正在尋找這些機會，這就是推動您看到的成長的原因。我認為你很可能會看到更多這樣的情況。當然。升息是其中的一部分嗎？是的。但這肯定不是故事的全部。

We'll take our next question from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們將接受富國銀行的愛麗絲·格林斯潘提出的下一個問題。

My first question is, I guess, building upon the growth conversation as you guys had alluded to, like, growth within the insurance book, did pick up in the quarter, obviously, pushes and pulls across the different business lines. Rob, just based on your overall outlook, how would you expect, I guess, premium growth within that book to trend, not only in the fourth quarter, but also in 2024 as well?

我想，我的第一個問題是，在你們提到的成長對話的基礎上，保險業務的成長確實在本季度有所回升，顯然，推動和拉動了不同的業務線。 Rob，根據您的整體前景，您預計該書中的保費成長趨勢如何，不僅在第四季度，而且在 2024 年也是如此？

Obviously, Elyse, nobody knows exactly what tomorrow will bring. But as you would see over the past several quarters, there's been momentum that's building. And there's nothing that I see today that's going to take the wind out of that sale.

顯然，愛麗絲，沒有人確切知道明天會發生什麼事。但正如您在過去幾個季度中看到的那樣，勢頭正在增強。我今天看到的任何事情都不會影響這次銷售。

Okay. And then in terms of the prior year development, so $1 million overall favorable? Was there any noise in either insurance or reinsurance within that $1 million, or any noise within different accident years that you want to call out? I know you typically wait for the 10-Q, but anything worth flagging tonight?

好的。那麼就去年的發展而言，100 萬美元總體上是有利的嗎？在這 100 萬美元內，保險或再保險是否有任何噪音，或您想要指出的不同事故年份內的任何噪音？我知道您通常會等待 10-Q，但今晚有什麼值得標記的嗎？

Yes. I don't think there was anything particularly noteworthy. Rich, did you have anything that you wanted to flag on the call?

是的。我覺得沒有什麼特別值得注意的事。 Rich，您有什麼想要在通話中標記的內容嗎？

I would agree with your comment, Rob. I don't think there is much in terms of -- from a segment perspective, pretty benign in each of the segments. So I think that's all I would comment before the Q.

我同意你的評論，羅布。我認為從細分市場的角度來看，每個細分市場都相當良性。所以我想這就是我在提問之前要評論的全部內容。

We'll take our next question from Mark Hughes with Truist.

我們將接受 Truist 的 Mark Hughes 提出的下一個問題。

Rob, Rich. General liability, you had another acceleration this quarter. Anything going on there? Are you seeing some sort of a rehardening perhaps in GL?

羅布、里奇.一般責任，本季您再次加速。那裡有什麼事嗎？您是否在 GL 中看到某種形式的重新強化？

I think that it's a combination of things. One is rate and two, certainly, our E&S businesses, in particular, are benefiting from that as well. And our specialty businesses overall. I think there's a recognition. Two things, one, there's discipline, people are taking the rate. And two, I think that there's a growing percentage of the audience that is looking to do business with carriers that they can have confidence in.

我認為這是多種因素的結合。一是費率，二當然是我們的 E&S 業務也從中受益。以及我們的整體專業業務。我認為有一種認可。有兩件事，第一，有紀律，人們正在接受利率。第二，我認為越來越多的受眾希望與他們可以信任的運營商開展業務。

And that's not just about ratings and in the eyes of the insured. I think it's also distribution partners where they are trying to narrow the number of relationships they have and have those relationships be more important and really focusing on partners that they know will be there tomorrow in a predictable and consistent manner.

這不僅是評級和被保險人眼中的問題。我認為分銷合作夥伴也正在努力縮小他們擁有的關係數量，並使這些關係變得更加重要，並真正關注他們知道明天將以可預測和一致的方式存在的合作夥伴。

Understood. How about the property reinsurance market, had a little slower growth this quarter compared to the last couple of quarters. What do you see happening there?

明白了。財產再保險市場怎麼樣，與過去幾季相比，本季的成長略有放緩。你看到那裡發生了什麼事？

Yes, I wouldn't read too much into that. There's just a fair amount of seasonality, if you will, to how that business is written. There's still a good opportunity there, and our colleagues, I think, are very focused on it.

是的，我不會對此進行太多解讀。如果你願意的話，該業務的編寫方式存在相當大的季節性。那裡仍然有一個很好的機會，我認為我們的同事非常關注它。

We'll take our next question from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛的亞歷克斯·斯科特提出的下一個問題。

So I wanted to ask you about the paid loss ratios. I mean I think in 1Q, it was 48%. It sounds like it's around that level now, still. Can you help us think through like how much is that benefiting from the growth in the business just with insured values and so forth going up?

所以我想問你有關有償損失率的問題。我的意思是，我認為第一季是 48%。聽起來現在仍然在這個水平附近。您能否幫助我們思考一下，僅隨著保險價值等的上升，業務成長會帶來多少好處？

How does that compare over like a longer period of time ex sort of those items? I'm just trying to think through, I mean, it seems like that's an important part of why you're so optimistic on the future. And as you all know, there's a fair amount of criticism of some of the older accident of yours. So I'm just trying to think through order of magnitude, that dynamic and sort of how seasoned the older stuff is, I mean, any way you can help me think through all that.

與這些項目相比，在更長的一段時間內，情況如何？我只是想清楚，我的意思是，這似乎是你對未來如此樂觀的一個重要原因。眾所周知，你們的一些舊事故受到了相當多的批評。所以我只是想透過數量級、動態和舊東西的經驗來思考，我的意思是，你可以幫助我思考所有這些。

Sure. So maybe a couple of comments. First off, as far as the growth and the benefit of the growth, I would encourage you to go back and look at how much growth has occurred because of exposure, if you will, versus how much is the growth has come because we're just charging more for each unit of exposure. And I would tell you, a lot of it is driven by that.

當然。也許有一些評論。首先，就成長和成長帶來的好處而言，我鼓勵你回去看看有多少成長是因為暴露而發生的，如果你願意的話，還有多少成長是因為我們只是為每個曝光單位收取更多費用。我想告訴你，很多事情都是由此驅動的。

In addition to that, as far as reserves and how they develop out, the average duration of our loss reserves is, give or take, 3.5 years, and that's paid. So what my point is that the years that perhaps are viewed as more challenging, I think you should have some level of comfort and sense of where those are coming out at this stage.

除此之外，就準備金及其發展方式而言，我們的損失準備金的平均期限或多或少是3.5年，而且是已支付的。所以我的觀點是，那些可能被認為更具挑戰性的年份，我認為你應該有一定程度的安慰，並了解現階段這些年份的結果。

Got it. That's helpful. Second question I had for you is I guess, on general liability, other liability and maybe the preference between primary versus reinsurance. I'm just noticing the casualty reinsurance has been declining a bit, and we've heard some more cautious commentary from some of the global reinsurers. I just want to understand what you're seeing there that's causing you to favor the primary verse reinsurance exposure?

知道了。這很有幫助。我想問您的第二個問題是關於一般責任、其他責任以及主保險與再保險之間的偏好。我只是注意到傷亡再保險有所下降，並且我們聽到了一些全球再保險公司的一些更謹慎的評論。我只是想了解您所看到的是什麼導致您傾向於主要的再保險風險？

Well, I think there are a couple of things. First off, a lot of it is not necessarily that the underlying business is less attractive. It may be about the ceding commissions that they're able to command. And at some point, maybe we think the underlying business is okay. But the ceding commissions that our competitors are willing to play on the reinsurance side, they don't make sense to us.

嗯，我認為有幾件事。首先，很多並不一定是基礎業務吸引力較差。這可能與他們能夠獲得的佣金的放棄有關。在某些時候，也許我們認為基礎業務還不錯。但我們的競爭對手願意在再保險方面放棄佣金，這對我們來說沒有意義。

In particular, I would call out some of the professional liability space, but I'm not going to get into more detail than that. As far as on the liability side on the direct or insurance front, it's just where we see opportunities. And we like what we see in much of the marketplace, particularly specialty. And if you want to get even more granular, much of the E&S market. And as you and others are aware, we're one of the largest players in the E&S space and in particular, in the liability lines.

特別是，我會指出一些職業責任空間，但我不會討論更多細節。就直接或保險方面的責任面而言，這正是我們看到機會的地方。我們喜歡在市場上看到的大部分產品，尤其是專業產品。如果您想更詳細地了解 E&S 市場的大部分內容。正如您和其他人所知，我們是 E&S 領域（尤其是責任險領域）最大的參與者之一。

So this is just a good moment. And again, what's going on with the reinsurance isn't necessarily that we just think that the market has gone to hell as far as the primary. We just may not agree with what some others are viewing as an appropriate fee.

所以這只是一個好時機。再說一次，再保險發生的事情並不一定是我們只是認為市場已經陷入困境。我們可能只是不同意其他人認為適當的費用。

I have heard as of late from some reinsurers commenting on social inflation and all of a sudden, they discovered this thing called litigation funding and kind of makes you scratch your head and wonder where they've been for the past decade because these are not new phenomenon. These are things that those of us that are in the marketplace, at least in the weeds, we've been not just talking about, but dealing with for an extended period of time. So there's nothing new there. I think it's great that they're focused on it. Maybe they'll bring more discipline to the marketplace.

我最近聽到一些再保險公司對社會通貨膨脹的評論，突然間，他們發現了一種叫做訴訟資金的東西，這有點讓你摸不著頭腦，想知道他們在過去十年裡去了哪裡，因為這些並不是什麼新鮮事現象。這些是我們這些在市場上的人，至少在雜草中的人，我們不僅在談論，而且在很長一段時間內處理過的事情。所以那裡沒有什麼新東西。我認為他們專注於此真是太好了。也許他們會為市場帶來更多的紀律。

Our next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

Can we talk a little bit short tail lines, a lot of growth there that says to me there's property in there, but short tail is a pretty big catch up for a lot of things, a lot of growth. Interested in what you're finding there and what the opportunities are.

我們可以談談短尾線嗎，那裡有很多增長，對我來說，那裡有財產，但短尾對於很多事情來說是一個相當大的追趕，很多增長。對您在那裡發現的東西和機會感興趣。

Lion's share of it's a property. There's a little bit of a auto physical damage in there. And on both fronts, particularly in the property, I think you know the story as well as we do. There is a need for rate, there's an opportunity for rate, and we are trying to make the most of it.

其中大部分是財產。那裡有一點汽車物理損壞。在這兩個方面，特別是在房地產方面，我認為您和我們一樣了解這個故事。需要費率，有費率的機會，我們正在努力充分利用它。

And do you have -- obviously, your reinsurance costs are up a little bit. You're not a huge buyer of reinsurance, but are you able to take on some of that increased price to the benefit of shareholders or something that can pass off the reinsurance market?

顯然，您的再保險成本上升。您不是再保險的大買家，但您是否能夠承擔部分上漲的價格，以造福股東或可以冒充再保險市場的東西？

The short answer is, Josh, that we are trying to ensure that the additional cost of that capacity that we rent is being passed on to the client. And I think we're doing that reasonably well. It's not a perfect indicator, but you can see that in the difference between the gross and the net and part.

喬什，簡短的回答是，我們正在努力確保我們租用的容量的額外成本轉嫁給客戶。我認為我們在這方面做得相當不錯。這不是一個完美的指標，但您可以從總量、淨值和部分之間的差異中看出這一點。

Look, it's down a lot from where it was in 3Q '22, but the cat loss in the reinsurance segment was somewhat high. I don't think your big Hawaiian write -- maybe there's some homes in Hawaii you write, the (inaudible) in the Panhandle in Florida, it doesn't seem like that would have been a big area for you. Can you talk about the cat loss a little bit in the reinsurance segment?

看，它比 22 年第三季下降了很多，但再保險領域的巨額損失有點高。我不認為你寫的大夏威夷語——也許你寫了夏威夷的一些房屋，佛羅裡達州狹長地帶的（聽不清），這對你來說似乎不是一個大區域。您能談談再保險領域的貓咪損失嗎？

Yes. The long story short, did we have modest exposure to the things that you're talking about or that you flagged, yes. And then there was also some SCS exposure in there, too.

是的。長話短說，我們是否對您正在談論或您標記的事情有適度的了解，是的。然後那裡也有一些 SCS 暴露。

Okay. And if I can get one more in. In terms of -- I know you guys gave a -- the rate, not really loss trend. You talked a lot about commercial and where it can be. What is the loss trend in commercial auto? And what are you reserving to, given your concerns about social inflation? Is there a variance between where you think the loss trends currently and where you're booking it? I know you're trying to be conservative but is this something that's been prepared for in how you're pricing and what not?

好的。如果我能再加入一個。就——我知道你們給了——比率而言，而不是真正的損失趨勢。你談到了很多關於商業化以及它可以在哪裡的問題。商用車虧損趨勢如何？考慮到您對社會通貨膨脹的擔憂，您有何保留？您目前認為的損失趨勢與您所預訂的損失趨勢之間是否存在差異？我知道你想保守一點，但你的定價方式是否已經為此做好了準備？

The short answer is and it depends on the part of the portfolio. But generally speaking, we are looking to build in a risk margin beyond what the actuarial answer would be.

簡短的答案是，這取決於投資組合的部分。但一般來說，我們希望建立超出精算答案的風險邊際。

Our next question comes from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Rob, good afternoon. Just had a question on the commercial auto premium growth. And I guess I hear your commentary loud and clear on social inflation impacting that line. So I was a little surprised that the growth accelerated there. Was that more a function of this partner that you parted ways with resulting in, I guess, an easier comp? Or have you seen something change there on the pricing side this quarter that makes you want to lean into the commercial auto market a little bit more?

羅布，下午好。剛剛對商用汽車保費成長有疑問。我想我聽到了你對社會通貨膨脹影響這條線的響亮而清晰的評論。所以我對那裡的成長加速感到有點驚訝。我想，這更多是這個合作夥伴的一個功能，你與它分道揚鑣，導致了一個更容易的比賽嗎？或者您看到本季定價方面發生了一些變化，使您想更多地涉足商用汽車市場？

So a couple of things that's worth noting. Yes, part of it has to do with a bit of runoff as you alluded to. But the bigger story from my perspective is the rate that we are achieving. And we are pushing very hard on the rate, and we're getting it. And ultimately, we have a view as to how much we need for rate. And to the extent that we're getting it, then we don't have a problem writing the business. But we are not going to write it if we don't think we can get the rate that is required plus to achieve our targeted return.

有幾件事值得注意。是的，正如您所提到的，部分原因與徑流有關。但從我的角度來看，更重要的是我們實現的速度。我們正在非常努力地提高利率，而且我們正在實現這一目標。最終，我們對需要多少費率有自己的看法。只要我們得到了它，那麼我們在編寫業務時就沒有問題了。但如果我們認為無法獲得實現目標回報所需的利率，我們就不會寫它。

Got it. That's encouraging. And then maybe -- and I know you guys have been vocal on just workers' comp, medical cost inflation and staying on top of those trends. I'm wondering if you're actually starting to see that come through -- been manifest in your claims data just in terms of the medical cost inflation starting to impact your payments?

知道了。這令人鼓舞。然後也許——我知道你們一直在談論工人補償、醫療費用通膨以及緊跟這些趨勢。我想知道您是否真的開始看到這一點——在您的索賠數據中體現出來，只是醫療費用通膨開始影響您的付款？

We certainly are seeing early signs of it, and we've been seeing it for a little while, which has really been one of the catalysts for the caution. I think we've been talking about for some time, how the providers, if you will, their economic model is not sustainable. They -- many of them, particularly the large health systems are destroying huge amounts of capital and something is going to have to give. And ultimately, part of how that riddle is going to get solved is through the payers.

我們當然已經看到了它的早期跡象，而且我們已經看到它有一段時間了，這確實是謹慎的催化劑之一。我想我們已經討論了一段時間了，如果你願意的話，供應商的經濟模式是如何不可持續的。他們中的許多人，特別是大型衛生系統正在摧毀大量資本，因此必須做出一些貢獻。最終，解決這個謎題的部分方法是透過付款人。

Workers' compensation is not going to be insulated from that. The story is not just about pharma. It's about other components of medical costs. And I think you're putting the comp component aside for a moment. If you talk to large payers, the United, the Cigna, et cetera, and you talk about the type of trend that they are seeing and then you extrapolate from that, what does it mean for workers' comp, who, by the way, we probably don't actually, we definitely don't have the same negotiating leverage that someone like a United would have, I think that's pretty instructive.

工人的賠償也不會受到影響。這個故事不僅與製藥有關。這是關於醫療費用的其他組成部分。我認為您暫時將補償部分放在一邊。如果你與大支付者，曼聯，信諾等等交談，你談論他們所看到的趨勢類型，然後你從中推斷，這對工人補償意味著什麼，順便說一句，事實上，我們可能沒有，我們絕對沒有像曼聯這樣的球隊那樣的談判籌碼，我認為這非常有啟發性。

Got it. Understood. And then maybe if I can sneak one more in, just a quick one. I didn't hear you talk at all about the fire losses. And I think is that fair to assume that that's pretty much done -- you guys have re-underwritten that book, and that's no longer impacting results? Or did that have some smallish impact this quarter as well?

知道了。明白了。然後也許我可以再偷偷溜進去一個，只是快一點。我根本沒有聽到你談論火災損失。我認為假設這已經基本完成了——你們已經重新承銷了那本書，並且這不再影響結果，這是公平的嗎？或者這對本季也產生了一些較小的影響嗎？

The answer is that it wasn't overly noteworthy in the quarter. I'm not inclined to declare victory because then it always comes back to bite us. But I think we're making progress on that front. That having been said, as far as the loss picks go, for our conversation around the environment, we're just not in a rush to do anything but be thoughtful and measured.

答案是，該季度的表現並不太值得注意。我不傾向於宣布勝利，因為勝利總是會反過來咬我們一口。但我認為我們正在這方面取得進展。話雖如此，就損失選擇而言，對於我們圍繞環境的對話，我們只是不急於做任何事情，而是要深思熟慮和衡量。

The fact is the business is generating by any measure, great returns and we don't see that changing. So there's no reason to push better for us just to make sure that it is thoughtful and well controlled. And if we're going to err, we're comfortable erring on the side of caution.

事實上，無論以何種標準衡量，該業務都在產生巨大的回報，而且我們認為這種情況不會改變。因此，我們沒有理由僅僅為了確保它經過深思熟慮和良好控製而更好地推動。如果我們要犯錯，我們也願意謹慎行事。

We'll take our next question from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

我們將回答來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis 提出的下一個問題。

First question just on short tail lines. Obviously, there's been some mix shift in that direction. I think that, that would have somewhat of a lower underlying loss ratio. Is that the right way to think about it?

第一個問題只是關於短尾線。顯然，朝這個方向發生了一些混合轉變。我認為，這會降低潛在損失率。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

I think it potentially does. But with a lot of those lines, you got to remember, we carry a cat load. So we are not going to release the cat load prematurely. So that could spill over, that benefit may not be realized, if you will, we may carry that through into a future period. But yes, to your point, we did have a lower loss ratio oftentimes, yes.

我認為有可能。但是，由於有很多這樣的線路，你必須記住，我們承載著大量的負載。所以我們不會過早釋放貓負載。因此，這可能會溢出，這種好處可能無法實現，如果您願意，我們可以將其延續到未來一段時間。但是，是的，就你的觀點而言，我們的損失率確實經常較低，是的。

And then, I guess, just bigger picture with commercial auto. It seems like it's been like almost an impossible line to underwrite over the past decade. Just curious like for a business like Berkley. Why does that line need to be such a large component of what you underwrite? Is it that it's bundled with other stuff? Or you think you can ultimately get it right? I'm just curious why structurally that has to be such a large part of your mix?

然後，我想，只是商用車的更大前景。在過去的十年裡，這似乎是一條幾乎不可能承保的線。只是對伯克利這樣的企業感到好奇。為什麼該額度需要在您承保的項目中佔據如此大的一部分？是不是跟其他東西綁在一起了？還是你認為你最終能做對？我只是好奇為什麼從結構上來說這必須是你的組合的很大一部分？

Yes. So I think we need to dissect that a little bit. And apologies in advance if this proves to be more of an answer than you're looking for. But as far as commercial auto goes, I would draw the analogy perhaps to your point that it's sort of the industry's version of [whack-a-mole]. As far as our book goes, we write it both stand-alone and we also write it as part of a package. Is it relevant to how you write a package? Yes, it is. But that doesn't mean you should write it in an undisciplined manner.

是的。所以我認為我們需要對此進行一些剖析。如果事實證明這不是您想要的答案，請提前致歉。但就商用汽車而言，我可能會根據您的觀點進行類比，即它有點像行業版本的[打地鼠]。就我們的書而言，我們既可以單獨編寫它，也可以將其作為包的一部分編寫。這與你如何編寫包有關嗎？是的。但這並不意味著您應該以無紀律的方式編寫它。

I think as far as the Monoline goes, we play when we think we're making a buck and quite frankly, a lot of our Monoline guys, we think, over the past few years have done very well. So we'll see over time, but I think we just have some reservation and concerns about where the marketplace is going.

我認為就 Monoline 而言，我們在認為自己能賺錢的時候就玩，坦白說，我們認為，我們的許多 Monoline 人員在過去幾年中都做得很好。所以我們會隨著時間的推移看到結果，但我認為我們只是對市場的走向持保留態度和擔憂。

That having been said, it has caused us indigestion from time to time. I think we've as of late, have more consistently done better where we're running at Monoline because we are very focused on it. I think there are some examples where we've written as part of a package where we probably haven't been as focused and didn't have as strong an expertise being brought to bear, and that is something that we are working at changing. But yes, are there moments in time where I look at it and I say, how does this make sense? That having been said, there are many parts of this organization where they are doing it consistently well.

話雖這麼說，它有時會導致我們消化不良。我認為我們最近在 Monoline 上一直做得更好，因為我們非常專注於此。我認為有一些例子是我們作為一個包的一部分編寫的，但我們可能沒有那麼專注，也沒有那麼強大的專業知識，而這正是我們正在努力改變的事情。但是，是的，有時我會看著它並說，這有什麼意義？話雖如此，該組織的許多部分都做得很好。

We'll take our next question from Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀的布萊恩梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith) 提出的下一個問題。

Rob, just curious, any green shoots at all in the professional liability line and maybe even related to cyber, and we've seen some big losses come through in the cyber area of late. And is that causing any kind of upward pressure on rates and maybe some opportunity around that line?

羅布，只是好奇，職業責任線中是否有任何萌芽，甚至可能與網路有關，我們最近看到網路領域發生了一些重大損失。這是否會對利率造成任何形式的上行壓力，並可能帶來一些機會？

I guess my answer would be not yet. We'll have to see what comes about. Particularly as far as cyber goes, it's going to be interesting to see what type of pressure the reinsurance marketplace brings to bear on the underlying or the insurance marketplace. As far as D&O goes, it continues to be very, very competitive.

我想我的答案還不是。我們得看看會發生什麼。特別是就網路而言，看看再保險市場為基礎市場或保險市場帶來什麼樣的壓力將會很有趣。就 D&O 而言，它的競爭仍然非常非常激烈。

Other parts of professional liability, I would tell you that to a varying degree, it's pretty challenging out here. So again, I think that you can still make a buck in a bunch of pockets, but you need to be careful.

我想告訴你，職業責任的其他部分在不同程度上是非常具有挑戰性的。再說一遍，我認為你仍然可以賺到錢，但你需要小心。

Got you. Makes sense. And then, Rob, just remind me that, that business going through the python. Is it anything impact on your underlying or your loss picks? So you just having to set a little more conservative? Is that book earn kind of runs off here?

明白你了。說得通。然後，羅布，請提醒我，透過 Python 進行的業務。這對你的標的資產或你的損失選擇有什麼影響嗎？所以你只需要設定得更保守一點？那本書賺的錢是不是跑到這裡了？

The answer is as we saw what was going on with it. We pushed the picks up. We think what we're carrying makes sense and it won't be an issue but quite honestly, we wish them well, but we're not going to miss them.

答案正如我們所看到的。我們把拾音器推了起來。我們認為我們所攜帶的東西是有意義的，這不會成為問題，但老實說，我們祝他們一切順利，但我們不會錯過他們。

We'll take our next question from Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們將接受 KBW 的 Meyer Shields 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to drill down a little bit more maybe into ceding commissions on casualty reinsurance because we're reading a lot if you said, maybe European reinsurers getting nervous about social inflation. I'm wondering, is it too early or are in your current discussion, so let's say, 1/1, casualty reinsurance renewals. Is there -- are there any indications of ceding commissions improve it?

我想更深入地探討一下關於放棄傷亡再保險佣金的問題，因為如果你說，也許歐洲再保險公司對社會通膨感到緊張，我們會讀到很多內容。我想知道，這是否太早了，或者正在您當前的討論中，所以假設，1/1，傷亡再保險續保。是否有任何跡象表明放棄佣金會改善它？

They don't invite me to their pricing meetings, so I don't know. That hasn't been -- given the chatter, I think they're thinking about it. But we'll have to see whether the dialogue and the commentary materializes in action.

他們沒有邀請我參加他們的定價會議，所以我不知道。考慮到人們的議論，我認為他們正在考慮這個問題。但我們必須看看對話和評論是否會落實到行動中。

Fair enough. I wanted to step back, have you talked about Berkley's willingness to write more property in the current environment? And I'm wondering about now that we're 9-months through the year, how the growth that you've seen compares with the expectations you had and the opportunity did you spot if you go back to December of last year?

很公平。我想退一步，您是否談到伯克利願意在當前環境下出售更多財產？我想知道今年已經有 9 個月了，您所看到的成長與您的預期相比如何，如果您回到去年 12 月，您會發現什麼機會？

I think that we feel quite good about what has been accomplished by our colleagues and I understand that many of you, the only barometer you have is how much premium that we are writing. But what may not always come through as clearly is maybe we're collecting the same amount of premium but we've reduced the exposure by 1/3 or maybe we're collecting 30% more premium, but we've reduced the exposure considerably.

我認為我們對我們的同事所取得的成就感到非常滿意，我理解你們中的許多人，唯一的晴雨表就是我們正在寫的溢價有多少。但可能不總是那麼清楚的是，也許我們收取相同金額的保費，但我們將風險敞口減少了 1/3，或者也許我們收取的保費多了 30%，但我們大大減少了風險敞口。

So it's not just a matter of how much you write. It's a matter of how much you're going to make, obviously. And I think our colleagues both domestically as well as outside of the U.S. have done a nice job navigating the channel and continue to.

所以這不只是你寫多少的問題。顯然，這取決於你能賺多少錢。我認為我們美國國內和國外的同事在這個管道上做得很好，並將繼續這樣做。

Our next question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Mark Hughes。

Yes, I just wanted to ask about the -- I want to ask about the expense ratio, particularly in the reinsurance segment, it was pretty low this quarter. Just any general thoughts about expense ratio overall.

是的，我只是想問一下——我想問一下費用率，特別是在再保險領域，本季的費用率相當低。只是關於總體費用比率的任何一般想法。

Look, I think the -- as we've suggested to people in the past, our view is that we're going to be able to keep the expense ratio more likely than not comfortably below [30]. That can obviously be impacted as you're familiar, Mark and others are as well. Our oftentimes prefer an approach for growth is through de novo or starting new businesses.

聽著，我認為——正如我們過去向人們建議的那樣，我們的觀點是，我們將更有可能將費用比率保持在低於[30]的水平。正如您所熟悉的那樣，這顯然會受到影響，馬克和其他人也是如此。我們通常更喜歡從頭開始或開展新業務來實現成長。

When you start a new business and it's in its infancy and doesn't have scale, not a lot of earned premium that has a negative impact on your expense ratio. That having been said, we think it's a much more controlled model to growing the business.

當您開始一項新業務時，它還處於起步階段，沒有規模，賺取的保費不多，這會對您的費用比率產生負面影響。話雖如此，我們認為這是一種更可控的業務成長模式。

So again, does it pick up a little bit, it can go up, it can go down. But probably the biggest driver around that is businesses that we start and the timing for them to get to scale. But I think we remain convinced that we should be able to keep it starting with a [two].

再說一次，它會稍微回升嗎？它可以上升，也可以下降。但最大的驅動因素可能是我們創辦的業務以及它們擴大規模的時機。但我認為我們仍然相信我們應該能夠以[二]開始。

And so nothing unusual this quarter in the Reinsurance and Monoline Excess.

因此，本季的再保險和單險超額並沒有什麼異常。

Rich, is there anything that you can think of?

Rich，你能想到什麼嗎？

No, I think it's for the same reasons that we've been talking about and that you alluded to, Rob.

不，我認為這與我們一直在談論的以及你提到的原因相同，羅布。

We'll take our next question from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們將回答 Yaron Kinar 和 Jefferies 提出的下一個問題。

My first question, and I may be paraphrasing what I think I heard from you, but I think you're not taking the foot off the pedal in terms of rate. At the same time, you are achieving a ROE of about 20%, new money rates would suggest upside there. So why is there a need to continue to aggressively push rate here? Is it that you worry about medical inflation, social inflation and once they rear heads maybe quickly impact margins?

我的第一個問題，我可能會解釋我認為我從你那裡聽到的內容，但我認為你並沒有在速度方面把腳從踏板上鬆開。同時，您的 ROE 達到了 20% 左右，新的貨幣利率表明還有上升空間。那為什麼需要繼續大幅推高利率呢？您是否擔心醫療通膨、社會通膨，一旦它們出現，可能很快就會影響利潤率？

Well, I don't think it's once they rear their heads. I think their head is fully reared at this stage, and the neck just keeps growing. So from my perspective, it is exactly what you suggested, it is loss cost trend. And while perhaps there's some evidence that financial or economic inflation is slowing, though still elevated relative to what it's been in the recent past. There is no evidence that social inflation is abating at all. And as a result of that, we're just going to keep pushing. And at a minimum, we need to keep up with that.

好吧，我不認為他們一旦抬起頭來。我認為他們的頭在這個階段已經完全抬起，脖子還在不斷生長。所以從我的角度來看，這正是你所建議的，這是損失成本趨勢。也許有一些證據表明金融或經濟通膨正在放緩，但相對於最近的通膨水平仍然較高。沒有證據顯示社會通貨膨脹正在減弱。因此，我們將繼續努力。至少，我們需要跟上這一點。

Got it. And then we haven't heard in a while about the international book. Can you maybe give us a quick update there. Is it margin accretive, dilutive for the quarter, for year-to-date? How growth patterns developing there?

知道了。然後我們已經有一段時間沒有聽說過這本國際書了。您能給我們快速更新一下嗎？本季和年初至今的利潤率是否會增加或攤薄？那裡的成長模式如何發展？

It's accretive. We have some terrific businesses outside of the United States, run by some outstanding people with a shared set of values that we have in other parts of the business, very focused on a lot of the things that we talked about, particularly risk-adjusted return. And it is certainly not dilutive to the franchise overall.

這是有增值作用的。我們在美國以外有一些很棒的業務，由一些傑出的人經營，他們與我們在業務的其他部分擁有共同的價值觀，非常關注我們談論的很多事情，特別是風險調整後的回報。這當然不會稀釋整個特許經營權。

Got it. If I could sneak one last one, if I may. On the property book in the loss picks there, I would assume those develop a bit faster than you see in the casualty line. So how long before you start updating those? Is it mostly frequency driven and we could see those start to move according to the actual frequency within a couple of quarters? Or does it take longer?

知道了。如果可以的話，如果我能偷偷溜走最後一張的話。在財產帳簿上的損失選擇中，我認為這些發展速度比您在傷亡人數中看到的要快一些。那你多久開始更新這些呢？它主要是頻率驅動的嗎？我們可以看到它們在幾個季度內開始根據實際頻率移動？還是需要更長的時間？

It takes a little bit of time. We look at it every 90-days or so and don't want to get ahead of ourselves. I think there's two pieces to it. One is how do we think about attritional or, if you will, the risk book versus how do we think about the cat exposure.

這需要一點時間。我們大約每 90 天查看一次，並且不想超前。我認為它有兩個部分。一是我們如何看待消耗，或者如果你願意的話，風險手冊與我們如何看待貓的暴露。

The cat piece is a little bit of a different story, as I was at least trying to suggest earlier, we have a cat load that we build in, and we're not going to release that prematurely. We'll have that roll over from quarter-to-quarter. As far as the attritional goes, we just want to give it a little bit of time to see how it plays out. But yes, it's not -- it shouldn't be measured in years and years.

貓的部分是一個有點不同的故事，正如我之前至少試圖建議的那樣，我們內置了一個貓負載，並且我們不會過早地發布它。我們將按季度滾動。就消耗而言，我們只想給它一點時間看看效果如何。但是，是的，事實並非如此——它不應該以年復一年來衡量。

And that concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Rob Berkley for any additional or closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給 Rob Berkley，請他發表補充或結束語。

Okay. Lisa, thank you very much for hosting us. Thank you to our colleagues for participating in the call. I think just going back to some of the earlier comments, the table is set, and it's pretty visible how it's set.

好的。麗莎，非常感謝您接待我們。感謝我們的同事參與此次電話會議。我想回到之前的一些評論，表格已經設定好了，而且它是如何設定的非常明顯。

I think the earnings power of the business is just going to be growing for the foreseeable future. more likely than not, we're going to get the double benefit of both of our core activities, both the underwriting and the investing and the momentum should continue. So thank you again, and we will look forward to speaking with you early next year. Have a good night.

我認為在可預見的未來，該業務的獲利能力將會持續成長。更有可能的是，我們將從我們的核心活動（承保和投資）中獲得雙重利益，並且這種勢頭應該會持續下去。再次感謝您，我們期待明年初與您交談。祝你晚安。

This concludes today's presentation. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的演講到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。