W R Berkley Corp (WRB) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to W. R. Berkley Corporation's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded. The speakers' remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, believes, expects or estimates. We caution you that for such forward-looking statements -- such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us, that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will, in fact, be achieved.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 W. R. Berkley Corporation 的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄製中。發言者的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。一些前瞻性陳述可以通過使用前瞻性詞語來識別，包括但不限於相信、預期或估計。我們提醒您，對於此類前瞻性陳述——此類前瞻性陳述不應被我們視為我們所設想的未來計劃、估計或預期實際上將會實現的陳述。

Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. W. R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

請參閱我們截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，以了解我們經營所在的商業環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素的描述。 W. R. Berkley Corporation 沒有任何義務並明確否認任何更新或更改其前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給 Rob Berkley 先生。請繼續，先生。

Emma, thank you very much, and good afternoon to all participants. Thank you for finding time to join us this afternoon. Cohosting with me today is Bill Berkley, Executive Chairman; as well as Rich Baio, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We are going to follow our typical agenda where momentarily, I'll be handing it over to Rich. He's going to run through some of the financial highlights from the quarter. Once he gets through his comments, he'll be handling -- handing it back to me. I will follow up with a few of my own observations, and then the 3 of us will be available for Q&A to answer any questions people may have.

艾瑪，非常感謝你，祝所有參與者下午好。感謝您今天下午抽空加入我們。今天與我共同主持的是執行主席 Bill Berkley；以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rich Baio。我們將遵循我們的典型議程，我會暫時將其交給 Rich。他將介紹本季度的一些財務亮點。一旦他完成了他的意見，他就會處理——交還給我。我將跟進一些我自己的觀察，然後我們 3 個人將可以進行問答，回答人們可能提出的任何問題。

So with that, Rich, if you would, please.

因此，Rich，如果你願意的話，請。

Thanks, Rob. Appreciate it. The company is off to a strong start with the first quarter of 2023 despite the significant catastrophe losses facing the industry. Our scale, specialization and disciplined management approach positioned us well to report an annualized return on equity of 17.4%. Contributions to this performance was reflected in both underwriting and investment income. The current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was a strong 87.7%. And investment income approached the record level achieved in the fourth quarter of 2022, driven by significant growth in our core portfolio investment income of more than 80%.

謝謝，羅布。欣賞它。儘管該行業面臨重大災難性損失，但該公司在 2023 年第一季度開局良好。我們的規模、專業化和嚴格的管理方法使我們能夠很好地報告 17.4% 的年化股本回報率。對這一業績的貢獻反映在承保和投資收入中。當前的事故年綜合比率（不包括災難）高達 87.7%。在我們超過 80% 的核心投資組合投資收入顯著增長的推動下，投資收入接近 2022 年第四季度創下的歷史新高。

The balance sheet also strengthened with stockholders' equity growing to a record level of more than $6.9 billion and book value per share increasing 3.7% in the quarter. The company returned almost $300 million of capital to shareholders through regular and special dividends as well as share repurchases, resulting in growth in book value per share before dividends and repurchases of 7.2%. The short duration in the fixed maturity investment portfolio of 2.4 years and high credit quality of AA- benefited unrealized investment losses by approximately $181 million.

資產負債表也得到加強，股東權益增長至超過 69 億美元的創紀錄水平，本季度每股賬面價值增長 3.7%。該公司通過定期和特別股息以及股票回購向股東返還近 3 億美元的資本，導致股息和回購前每股賬面價值增長 7.2%。 2.4 年的固定期限投資組合的短期期限和 AA- 的高信用質量使未實現的投資損失減少了約 1.81 億美元。

Continuing on investment performance. Net investment income increased almost 29% to $223 million. The income attributable to the core portfolio substantially increased due to a higher new money rate on fixed maturity securities compared to the roll-off of existing investments. In addition, strong operating cash flow of approximately $445 million in the quarter increased our investable assets and will further contribute to growth in net investment income. The book yield has increased from 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 3.8% in the current quarter on fixed maturity securities.

繼續投資業績。淨投資收入增長近 29% 至 2.23 億美元。由於固定期限證券的新貨幣利率高於現有投資的轉存，因此核心投資組合的收益大幅增加。此外，本季度約 4.45 億美元的強勁運營現金流增加了我們的可投資資產，並將進一步促進淨投資收入的增長。固定期限證券的賬面收益率從 2022 年第四季度的 3.6% 增加到本季度的 3.8%。

The investment funds reflected income of $2 million for the quarter, primarily arising from declines in market value in the financial services and consumer goods sectors, partially offset by income from transportation and energy funds. Pretax net investment gains reflected an increase of $43 million in unrealized gains on equity securities, bringing our total unrealized gains to approximately $114 million on the balance sheet. Equity investments in the technology sector drove the quarterly improvement. Partially offsetting these unrealized equity gains were losses recognized of approximately $21 million.

投資基金本季度的收入為 200 萬美元，主要是由於金融服務和消費品行業的市值下降，部分被交通和能源基金的收入所抵消。稅前淨投資收益反映股票證券未實現收益增加了 4300 萬美元，使我們資產負債表上的未實現收益總額達到約 1.14 億美元。科技行業的股權投資推動了季度改善。約 2100 萬美元的確認損失部分抵消了這些未實現的股權收益。

Turning to underwriting results. Underwriting income was $234 million, which included current accident year catastrophe losses of $48 million or 1.9 loss ratio points and prior accident year unfavorable development of $24 million or 1 loss ratio point principally from property catastrophe losses. Winter storms impacted both the current quarter and carried over from late loss activity in the fourth quarter of last year. This compares with catastrophe losses in the first quarter of 2022 in the amount of $29 million or 1.3 loss ratio points. The calendar year loss ratio for first quarter of 2023 was 61.8%, and the current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophe losses, was 58.9%.

轉向承保結果。承保收入為 2.34 億美元，其中包括當前事故年的巨災損失 4800 萬美元或 1.9 個損失率點，以及主要來自財產巨災損失的先前事故年的不利發展 2400 萬美元或 1 個損失率點。冬季風暴既影響了本季度，也影響了去年第四季度後期的虧損活動。相比之下，2022 年第一季度的巨災損失為 2900 萬美元或 1.3 個損失率點。 2023 年第一季度的日曆年損失率為 61.8%，當前事故年損失率為 58.9%（不包括巨災損失）。

The growth in net premiums earned of almost 11% continues to benefit the expense ratio. However, a number of factors are causing the expense ratio to increase 0.5 point to 28.8%. First, the change in our reinsurance over the last year has lowered our ceding commissions on certain treaties where we've moved from proportional covers to excess of loss and/or reduced our quota share percent ceded to reinsurance partners. In addition, increased compensation costs and new start-up operating unit expenses are contributing to the higher expense ratio. We still expect our expense ratio to be comfortably below 30% as communicated on our fourth quarter call.

淨保費收入增長近 11%，繼續有利於費用率。然而，多項因素導致費用率上升0.5個百分點至28.8%。首先，去年我們再保險的變化降低了我們在某些條約上的分出佣金，我們已經從按比例承保轉向超額損失和/或減少我們分出給再保險合作夥伴的配額份額百分比。此外，增加的補償成本和新的啟動運營單位費用也導致了更高的費用率。正如我們在第四季度電話會議上所傳達的那樣，我們仍然預計我們的費用率將輕鬆低於 30%。

Wrapping up with premium production, net premiums written grew by almost 7% to approximately $2.6 billion. The Insurance segment grew 6.6% to $2.2 billion. And as you saw in the supplemental information on Page 7 of the earnings release, all lines of business improved with the exception of professional liability. The Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment increased 7.1% to $363 million, a record level for the segment with growth in all lines of business.

加上保費收入，淨保費收入增長了近 7%，達到約 26 億美元。保險業務增長 6.6% 至 22 億美元。正如您在收益發布第 7 頁的補充信息中看到的那樣，除專業責任外，所有業務線都有所改善。再保險和單一險種 Excess 業務增長 7.1% 至 3.63 億美元，創下該業務領域增長的歷史新高。

And with that, I'll turn it back to you, Rob.

有了這個，我會把它還給你，羅布。

Rich, thanks very much. That was great. So let me provide a couple of observations through my lens, and then, again, as promised, we'll open it up for Q&A.

豐富，非常感謝。那很棒。因此，讓我通過我的鏡頭提供一些觀察結果，然後，再次按照承諾，我們將打開它進行問答。

So upon reflection, certainly, one of the things that we chat quite a bit about on our end of the phone is just taking note of how clearly the cycle remains alive and well, and the emotions that drive the behaviors remain very much intact. But we continue to take note of the fact how major product lines, while they are still subject to the cyclical behavior, the fact of the matter is, they are clearly not in lockstep at all. And we've talked about this in the past, but it seems to be coming more and more pronounced. So to that end, just a snapshot on how we're thinking about property clearly in what I would suggest is early stages of meaningful firming.

因此，經過反思，當然，我們在電話那端經常談論的事情之一就是注意到這個週期是多麼清楚地保持活躍和良好，並且驅動這些行為的情緒仍然完好無損。但我們繼續注意到主要產品線的事實，雖然它們仍然受週期性行為的影響，但事實是，它們顯然根本沒有同步。我們過去曾討論過這個問題，但它似乎變得越來越明顯。因此，為此，只是一個快照，說明我們如何在我建議的有意義的堅定的早期階段清楚地考慮財產。

From our perspective, it is a little bit disappointing as to the momentum that we saw on the Insurance side when it comes to property in January. We saw a little bit more momentum in February. And quite frankly, March, we started to see real progress. And April, I think there was meaningful traction as far as rate goes. While it perhaps is a little bit more announced or extreme on the cat side, I would tell you these comments apply to non-cat or risk exposure as well.

從我們的角度來看，我們在 1 月份看到的保險方面的勢頭有點令人失望。我們在二月份看到了更多的勢頭。坦率地說，三月份，我們開始看到真正的進展。而 4 月，我認為就利率而言，存在有意義的牽引力。雖然它在巨災方面可能更加公開或極端，但我會告訴你這些評論也適用於非巨災或風險敞口。

Professional liability, on the other hand, clearly, it's a very broad category, and it is a mixed bag. I think on the miscellaneous E&O front, particularly written on an E&S basis, there is still great opportunity, and we are making meaningful hay there. On the other hand, the D&O marketplace, particularly large account D&O, I would tell you for some number of quarters, and it continues to be in a state of free fall as far as rate adequacy or pricing, if you will, and it is concerning to us. In addition to that, though a smaller line than D&O, I would tell you hospital professional liability is another product line where it's in desperate need of some discipline returning to the marketplace.

另一方面，專業責任顯然是一個非常廣泛的類別，而且是一個混合包。我認為在其他 E&O 方面，特別是在 E&S 基礎上，仍然有很大的機會，我們正在那裡做有意義的干草。另一方面，D&O 市場，特別是大賬戶 D&O，我會告訴你幾個季度，就利率充足性或定價而言，它繼續處於自由落體狀態，如果你願意的話，它是對我們來說。除此之外，雖然比 D&O 的產品線更小，但我會告訴你醫院專業責任是另一個產品線，它迫切需要一些紀律返回市場。

Moving away from professional onto the topic of casualty. I would tell you that it seems, from our perspective, there is also a meaningful opportunity there, particularly in the E&S lines on the primary front. On the excess front, particularly large accounts becoming more challenging. Clearly, a similar situation on the auto classes as well, where excess is becoming a bit more competitive, and the primary there is competition but not as bad.

從專業話題轉移到傷亡話題上。我會告訴你，從我們的角度來看，這似乎也有一個有意義的機會，特別是在初級戰線的 E&S 線路中。在超額方面，特別是大賬戶變得更具挑戰性。顯然，汽車類也有類似的情況，過剩的競爭變得更加激烈，而主要的競爭卻沒有那麼糟糕。

I think the industry needs to be very careful with the professional casualty and auto, in particular, because they are notably susceptible to social inflation. And from our perspective, while there are signs that economic inflation is cooling a little bit from the heights that it reached social inflation, there's really no sign or indication that we see that calming at all.

我認為該行業需要非常小心地處理職業傷亡和汽車，尤其是因為它們特別容易受到社會通脹的影響。從我們的角度來看，雖然有跡象表明經濟通脹從達到社會通脹的高度開始有所降溫，但實際上沒有任何跡像或跡象表明我們看到了這種平靜。

Moving on to comp. Clearly, it continues to bounce along the bottom. One observation there historically or at least often times, California has lagged the rest of the market as far as where it stood in the cycle. There is some evidence that California is actually ahead of the rest of the market, is showing potential signs of firming.

繼續比賽。顯然，它繼續沿著底部反彈。從歷史上或至少經常觀察到的一項觀察表明，就其在周期中所處的位置而言，加利福尼亞一直落後於其他市場。有一些證據表明，加州實際上領先於其他市場，顯示出潛在的堅挺跡象。

Finally, reinsurance. I think there was a lot of excitement and discussion around affirming reinsurance market. Certainly, from our perspective, the reinsurance market, particularly around property and property cat, has gained a meaningful level of additional discipline relative to where it's been in past years. That having been said, the casualty, somewhat disciplined, and there are certain parts of the professional marketplace that have given us reason to pause as we were just not seeing the ceding commissions coming down even though we are seeing the pricing of the underlying erode.

最後，再保險。我認為圍繞確認再保險市場有很多興奮和討論。當然，從我們的角度來看，再保險市場，特別是圍繞財產和財產巨災的再保險市場，相對於過去幾年的情況，已經獲得了有意義的額外紀律水平。話雖這麼說，傷亡，有些紀律嚴明，專業市場的某些部分讓我們有理由停下來，因為即使我們看到潛在侵蝕的定價，我們也沒有看到放棄的佣金下降。

Pivoting over to us. A couple of sound bites. I think as Rich suggested, 17.4% return, a great way to start the year. In our opinion, the top line was impacted by what I would refer to as strong or excellent cycle management by our colleagues, as we are deemphasizing certain product lines and leaning into other product lines. Just as a reminder, our priority is the bottom line. We are focused on building book value through a lens that we refer to as risk-adjusted return, and we applaud the discipline and opportunistic approach that our colleagues operate with.

轉向我們。一些聲音片段。我認為正如 Rich 所建議的那樣，17.4% 的回報率是今年開始的好方式。在我們看來，頂線受到我所說的同事強大或出色的周期管理的影響，因為我們不再強調某些產品線並傾向於其他產品線。提醒一下，我們的首要任務是底線。我們專注於通過我們稱之為風險調整後回報的鏡頭來建立賬面價值，我們對我們的同事所採用的紀律和機會主義方法表示讚賞。

On the topic of rate, as we were touching earlier, clearly, the rate was quite strong in the quarter, which we were pleased to see. The 8.3x comp is the strongest that we've seen on the rate front since this time last year or the same time last year. Additionally, I would mention that the renewal retention ratio still is hanging in there around 80%, which as we've mentioned in the past, we think it's an important data point because it reminds us that we are not churning the book, but it actually -- the rate we are getting is sticking. We are not changing the quality or integrity of the book. Important thing again. I guess finally, just on the 8.3, I think by any measure, we are comfortably outpacing trend. And I think it is likely that you will see that coming through in our loss ratios over time.

關於利率這個話題，正如我們之前提到的，很明顯，本季度的利率相當強勁，我們很高興看到這一點。自去年這個時候或去年同期以來，我們在利率方面看到的 8.3 倍是最強的。此外，我要提到的是，續訂保留率仍然保持在 80% 左右，正如我們過去提到的那樣，我們認為這是一個重要的數據點，因為它提醒我們我們並沒有翻書，但它實際上——我們得到的利率是穩定的。我們不會改變本書的質量或完整性。又是重要的事情。我想最後，就在 8.3 上，我認為無論以何種標準衡量，我們都輕鬆地超過了趨勢。而且我認為隨著時間的推移，您很可能會在我們的損失率中看到這一點。

Even with the cat activity, the 90.6% combined, I think, is quite attractive. If you're a but-for, which I am not, it would have been an 87.7%. Obviously, the difference, as Rich alluded to, and you would have picked up in the release, was 2 things: one, obviously, the cats that we had during the period, which equated to approximately 1.9 points; and then we had 1 point of negative development. Now before anyone gets too carried away with the negative development, it was essentially driven by property and property cat losses that happened during the fourth quarter. And as people will recall, some of that cat activity happened late in the fourth quarter, and we just didn't have our arms fully around it. So please don't misconstrue the development for being something different than it really is.

即使加上貓的活動，我認為 90.6% 的總和還是很有吸引力的。如果你是一個 but-for，而我不是，那將是 87.7%。顯然，正如 Rich 提到的那樣，你會在新聞稿中發現的區別是兩件事：一，顯然，我們在此期間擁有的貓，大約相當於 1.9 分；然後我們有 1 點的負面發展。現在，在任何人被負面發展沖昏頭腦之前，它基本上是由第四季度發生的財產和財產巨災損失推動的。正如人們會記得的那樣，一些貓活動發生在第四季度末，我們只是沒有全力以赴。所以請不要誤解開發與實際情況不同。

Paid loss ratio, 48 and change. I think people will presumably continue to take note of the delta between the paid versus what we are booking the loss ratio to. We get questions from time to time given how well the paid loss ratio has been running relative to what we -- the loss ratio picks that we are carrying, when are those going to converge? And I would tell you that it's coming.

賠付賠付率，48和變化。我認為人們可能會繼續注意到已支付損失率與我們預訂的損失率之間的差異。考慮到付費損失率相對於我們所選擇的損失率運行得如何，我們不時會收到疑問，這些損失率何時會收斂？我會告訴你它即將到來。

In my opinion, I think there's a reality for the industry, and we are not completely insulated from it. '16 through '19 was a challenging period of time. I think that we have been cautious and measured as to how quickly we want to recognize the progress that was made '20 and more recent than that. But I think that's coming. I think it's going to come more into focus as we make our way through this year into next year. And likely, we'll have implications for the loss picks that we are carrying in the more recent years and also how we think about current year loss picks.

在我看來，我認為這個行業存在一個現實，我們並沒有完全與它隔絕。 16 年到 19 年是一段充滿挑戰的時期。我認為，對於我們想要以多快的速度認識到 20 世紀及之後取得的進展，我們一直保持謹慎和慎重。但我認為那即將到來。我認為隨著我們從今年到明年的發展，它會更加受到關注。很可能，我們將對我們最近幾年的虧損選擇以及我們如何看待今年的虧損選擇產生影響。

Rich touched on the expense ratio, the 28.8%. As he suggested, partly driven by new business initiatives, partly driven by some investments that we are making, particularly on the technology front. And finally, some shifts that we are making on the reinsurance, as he alluded to, the cede on something proportional or a quota share, obviously, is very different than an XOL. And while we are very keen for our reinsurance partners to make a reasonable return, we are unaccepting of being inappropriately gouged, and we will use our flexibility as appropriate.

Rich談到了費用比率，為28.8%。正如他所建議的那樣，部分是由新的業務計劃驅動的，部分是由我們正在進行的一些投資驅動的，特別是在技術方面。最後，正如他提到的，我們正在對再保險做出一些改變，按比例或配額分享的讓步顯然與 XOL 非常不同。雖然我們非常希望我們的再保險合作夥伴獲得合理的回報，但我們不能接受被不當欺詐，我們將酌情使用我們的靈活性。

Pivoting over to the investment portfolio. Without a doubt, a lot of momentum there. I think we've discussed it in some detail in the past. You can kind of see it coming our way. I think there is more opportunity from here, the duration at the 2.4 years. I think we are looking opportunistically to nudge that out. I don't think we're going to move the needle dramatically overnight, but certainly, our hope is that there will be windows of opportunity to nudge that out a little bit. The book yield at the 3.8% is notably below where the new money rate is. So our best guesstimate that a new money rate today is sort of between 4.25%, 4.5%, so you can do the math as to the upside there.

轉向投資組合。毫無疑問，那裡的勢頭很大。我想我們過去已經詳細討論過了。你可以看到它正在向我們走來。我認為這裡有更多機會，持續時間為 2.4 年。我認為我們正在尋找機會推動這一點。我不認為我們會在一夜之間大幅改變現狀，但當然，我們希望有機會把它稍微推一下。 3.8% 的賬面收益率明顯低於新貨幣利率。因此，我們最好的猜測是，今天的新貨幣利率介於 4.25% 和 4.5% 之間，因此您可以計算出那裡的上行空間。

Rich touched on the funds. We had a little bit of noise in the quarter, not a complete surprise. By and large, it was stemming from some private equity funds that we participate in. We feel like we have clarity around it. And it is our expectation that going forward, funds performance, more likely than not, will return to sort of that range of between $20 million and $50 million a quarter.

里奇談到了資金。我們在本季度有一些噪音，並不完全令人驚訝。總的來說，它源於我們參與的一些私募股權基金。我們覺得我們對此很清楚。我們預計，未來基金業績很可能會回到每季度 2000 萬至 5000 萬美元的範圍內。

So long story short, 17.4% return, combined ratio of a 90.6%, with some cat activity both in the quarter and a bit spilling over from Q4 '22. Rate increases robust [is] effort. And of course, the new money rate, 50 basis points plus upside relative to the book yield, I think all those things put together are very encouraging. To the extent you're a but-for person, which I am not, again, 87.7% would deliver you a 20-plus percent return.

長話短說，17.4% 的回報率，90.6% 的綜合比率，本季度都有一些貓活動，並且從 22 年第四季度開始有點溢出。率增加強勁 [is] 努力。當然，新貨幣利率，50 個基點加上相對於賬面收益率的上行空間，我認為所有這些加在一起非常令人鼓舞。如果你是一個 but-for 人，而我不是，那麼 87.7% 會給你帶來 20% 以上的回報。

So I think that was more than enough for me. Why don't we, Emma, go ahead and open it up for Q&A, please?

所以我認為這對我來說已經足夠了。艾瑪，我們為什麼不繼續打開它進行問答呢？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。

I guess first question on some of the premium growth changes. It looks like some of the growth rates were somewhat notable in the Insurance segment, especially with workers' comp growing a lot and some other lines as well. And then -- you know the numbers better than me. Anything you want to call out on why workers' comp is growing so fast? Is that the California comment or some of the lines that were shrinking a bit?

我想第一個問題是關於保費增長的一些變化。看起來保險部門的一些增長率有些顯著，尤其是工人薪酬增長很多，其他一些領域也是如此。然後——你比我更了解這些數字。關於為什麼工人薪酬增長如此之快，你有什麼想說的嗎？是加利福尼亞州的評論還是縮減了一些行數？

Well, as far as comp goes, Rich, you'll correct me if I'm wrong, I think we were kind of flattish. I think we went from $303 million in the quarter to $310 million, which isn't a large uptick. That having been said, I would tell you, it's mainly payrolls. Certainly, we're getting a little bit of traction from our new initiative in California, but what would be driving it more than anything else would be I think we all have an appreciation for where wage inflation has been going as of late, and we're picking that up, whether it be initially or coming through on the audits afterwards. Rich, am I correct on that?

好吧，就 comp 而言，Rich，如果我錯了你會糾正我，我認為我們有點扁平化。我認為我們從本季度的 3.03 億美元增至 3.1 億美元，增幅不大。話雖如此，我會告訴你，這主要是工資單。當然，我們從我們在加利福尼亞州的新舉措中獲得了一點牽引力，但最能推動它的是我認為我們都對最近工資通脹的發展方向表示讚賞，我們'撿起它，無論是最初還是之後的審計。里奇，我說得對嗎？

Yes. On the primary side, that's right, Rob.

是的。在初級方面，沒錯，羅伯。

Okay. My bad. I think I looked at a stale number, so I'll do my best to ask a better follow-up question. So on the investment portfolio, we've gotten a lot of questions about commercial real estate. Clearly, W. R. Berkley has an excellent track record. But any stats you want to offer or additional color on Berkley's commercial real estate portfolio such as maybe LTVs or anything you think we should be thinking about that could be helpful?

好的。我的錯。我想我看了一個陳舊的數字，所以我會盡力提出一個更好的後續問題。所以在投資組合上，我們收到了很多關於商業地產的問題。顯然，W. R. Berkley 擁有出色的業績記錄。但是你想提供的任何統計數據或伯克利商業房地產投資組合的其他顏色，例如 LTV 或你認為我們應該考慮的任何東西可能會有幫助嗎？

Well, a couple of things there, Mike. First of all, these buildings, much of it is unleveraged, so as far as the whole loan-to-value thing. I think the other piece is that we are very comfortable with the occupancy rate. And we're also comfortable with the credit of the tenants. And as you'd expect, it's something that we pay attention to. So the occupancy rate, the credit of the tenants and the duration of the leases, we think we're in a fine spot.

嗯，有幾件事，邁克。首先，這些建築物中的大部分是沒有槓桿的，就整個貸款價值而言。我認為另一點是我們對入住率感到非常滿意。我們也對租戶的信用感到滿意。正如您所期望的，這是我們關注的事情。因此，入住率、租戶的信用和租賃期限，我們認為我們處於一個很好的位置。

Okay. And lastly, I guess looking at -- thinking about your prepared remarks, when looking at the growth rate trend, it feels like there's a number of puts and takes. I mean it sounds like guarded optimism. Any help in kind of thinking about the top line?

好的。最後，我想看看——想想你準備好的言論，在看增長率趨勢時，感覺就像有很多投入和投入。我的意思是這聽起來像是謹慎的樂觀主義。對思考頂線有什麼幫助嗎？

Yes. Let me try and give you a little bit more color from my perspective without boring you or anyone else too much. The fact is that from an underwriting perspective, we're focused on the margin. And it's -- when we see what's going on, for example, in the D&O market, we are not going to follow that down the drain. My expectation, which I think will prove to be right, it's just taking longer than anticipated, you are going to see us on the property side be able to flex up a bit.

是的。讓我試著從我的角度給你多一點色彩，而不會讓你或其他任何人感到厭煩。事實上，從承保的角度來看，我們關注的是利潤率。而且它——當我們看到正在發生的事情時，例如，在 D&O 市場，我們不會追隨它。我的期望，我認為這將被證明是正確的，它只是比預期花費的時間更長，你會看到我們在財產方面能夠稍微靈活一點。

January, as I mentioned, was disappointing. February, maybe you saw a couple of green shoots. March was encouraging. And April, so far, there's visible traction. So we have a diverse book of what I would define as specialty insurance. As I tried to allude to earlier, various products, they don't march in lockstep. If we were a Monoline player, the peaks would be high and the valleys would be lower.

正如我所提到的，一月份令人失望。二月，也許你看到了一些萌芽。三月令人鼓舞。而四月，到目前為止，有明顯的牽引力。所以我們有一本關於我將定義為專業保險的書。正如我之前試圖提到的，各種產品不會步調一致。如果我們是 Monoline 玩家，峰會高而谷會低。

But because of the diversity and how the cycle has decoupled by product, it's a more stable ship. My best guess is that you're likely going to see our growth rate pick up as we make our way into -- it could be in the second quarter, but certainly as we make our way into the second half of the year. I think you're going to see us writing some more property.

但由於產品的多樣性以及週期如何與產品脫鉤，它是一艘更穩定的船。我最好的猜測是，你可能會看到我們的增長率在我們進入時加快——可能是在第二季度，但肯定是在我們進入下半年的時候。我想你會看到我們寫更多的財產。

I think you're going to see our momentum continue to build with some of our E&S casualty. I think you're going to start to see some of the comp lines bottoming out. I think you're going to see the D&O market. At some point, it's going to -- at least the erosion will slow. So my best estimate is that you're going to see the growth rate pick up certainly in the second half of the year based on what I can ascertain, and it could tick up a bit in Q2.

我認為你會看到我們的勢頭繼續與我們的一些 E&S 人員一起建立。我想你會開始看到一些補償線觸底反彈。我想你會看到 D&O 市場。在某個時候，它會——至少侵蝕會減慢。所以我最好的估計是，根據我可以確定的情況，你會在今年下半年看到增長率肯定會回升，並且可能會在第二季度有所回升。

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

My first question, can you just provide a little bit more color on what drove the accident year ex cat loss ratio deterioration in insurance? And how should we think about the balance of the year given your design ratio concept?

我的第一個問題，你能否提供更多顏色來說明是什麼導致了保險事故前貓損失率惡化？根據您的設計比率概念，我們應該如何考慮今年的餘額？

So I think probably the biggest driver there would be noncat property-related losses, Elyse. And I think we had alluded to in prior calls that we have been looking at this. I think there are a couple of things that needed to be tightened up. They are being tightened up. And I think that (inaudible) is making its way through the python at this stage. But I think that would be the bigger driver -- the biggest driver of noncat property.

所以我認為最大的驅動因素可能是與非巨災財產相關的損失，Elyse。我想我們在之前的電話中已經提到我們一直在研究這個問題。我認為有幾件事需要收緊。他們正在收緊。而且我認為（聽不清）在這個階段正在通過 python 進行。但我認為這將是更大的驅動力——非貓財產的最大驅動力。

And how large were the noncat property losses? Or is that the sole driver of the year-over-year deterioration in the underlying loss ratio in insurance?

非巨災財產損失有多大？或者這是保險基礎損失率逐年惡化的唯一驅動因素？

I don't have the exact number in front of me, but that was a big contributor.

我沒有確切的數字，但這是一個很大的貢獻者。

Okay. And then following up, I guess, on the growth question, it sounds like you expect growth to pick up in the second half of the year. You guys used to talk about double-digit growth, and I recognize there's a lot of moving pieces. If everything plays out the way that you expect, Rob, I mean do you think we'll be back to seeing double-digit growth in the back half of the year?

好的。然後跟進，我想，關於增長問題，聽起來你預計下半年增長會加快。你們過去常常談論兩位數的增長，我認識到有很多動人的部分。如果一切都按照您的預期進行，Rob，我的意思是您認為我們會在今年下半年恢復兩位數的增長嗎？

That's what we would like to see. The -- obviously, we're going to -- we'll see if the D&O market continues to erode. Akin to the D&O market is transactional liability, which just kind of hit a wall, which has had an impact as well. In addition to that, just getting a little deeper into it, Elyse, there are a couple of relationships that we had, specifically in the commercial auto space, where we had a different view than our partners do around rate adequacy. And as a result of that, we've gone our separate ways.

這就是我們希望看到的。 - 顯然，我們將 - 我們將看看 D&O 市場是否繼續侵蝕。與 D&O 市場類似的是交易責任，它只是碰壁，也產生了影響。除此之外，Elyse，只要稍微深入一點，我們就有一些關係，特別是在商用汽車領域，我們與我們的合作夥伴對利率充足性的看法不同。因此，我們分道揚鑣了。

And then other areas within professional liability, as I alluded to earlier, we just have a view as to inflation and social inflation. And the cost or the price that you pay for trying to be on top of it is sometimes you're early or ahead of the market. And eventually, more often than not, they will catch up. But the benefit of that is you don't have the same level of pain that you have to deal with in the future.

然後是職業責任的其他領域，正如我之前提到的，我們只是對通貨膨脹和社會通貨膨脹有一個看法。而你為試圖超越市場而付出的成本或代價有時是你早於市場或領先於市場。最終，他們往往會趕上來。但這樣做的好處是你不會有你將來必須處理的同樣程度的痛苦。

So long story short, I think we have many, many parts of our business growing at a very high growth rate, certainly well north of the 10% that you've talked about. There are some parts of the business where, to my colleagues' credit, they are operating with the appropriate level of discipline. They recognize they can't control the marketplace. They can control their own actions. And we appreciate and applaud what they're doing. But when you put it all together, what comes out in the wash is, I think more likely than not, you're going to see our growth rate tick up from here in the second half of the year.

長話短說，我認為我們的業務有很多很多部分都在以非常高的速度增長，當然遠遠超過你所說的 10%。值得我同事稱讚的是，在某些業務領域，他們的運營遵守了適當的紀律水平。他們認識到他們無法控制市場。他們可以控制自己的行為。我們讚賞並稱讚他們正在做的事情。但是當你把所有這些放在一起時，我認為很可能會在今年下半年看到我們的增長率從這裡開始上升。

And one last quick one. Am I right in assuming that the adverse development, the property cat, that, that all was in your Insurance segment in the quarter?

最後一個快速。我是否正確地假設不利的發展，財產貓，這一切都在本季度的保險部門？

Rich, I believe so, yes?

富有，我相信是這樣，是嗎？

Yes, for the most part.

是的，在大多數情況下。

The vast majority was.

絕大多數是。

Right.

正確的。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

At the risk of speaking on behalf of the but-for people, I was wondering -- look, if we go to the last cycle, obviously, things are never the same. But at the end of '04, '05, '06, I don't know when you want to put the end of the last cycle, it turned out that pricing was so adequate that although some people pulled back, you really had another healthy 5, maybe longer, years to write stuff that was very attractive.

冒著代表其他人發言的風險，我想知道 — 看，如果我們進入上一個週期，顯然，事情永遠不會一樣了。但是04年末，05年末，06年末，不知道你想把最後一個週期放到什麼時候，結果發現定價很充足，雖然有些人退縮了，但你真的有另一個健康的 5 年，也許更長，年寫出非常有吸引力的東西。

And maybe the lesson learned was that we should have been more aggressive. I don't know, maybe it wasn't the lesson learned, and there was a lot of opportunity even as pricing cooled off. We have from, I guess, the '19 through '21, '22 cycle, pricing has cooled off. And it looks like maybe there will be some property (inaudible), but things have changed really, really quickly.

也許吸取的教訓是我們應該更加積極進取。我不知道，也許這不是吸取的教訓，即使定價降溫，也有很多機會。我猜，從 19 年到 21 年、22 年的周期，定價已經降溫。看起來可能會有一些財產（聽不清），但事情發生了非常非常快的變化。

Where I'm going with this is, has the industry changed that you're always going to be following the loss costs, that everything has gotten more technical and more advanced in a way that there's not a extended period of excess pricing where the insurance companies are allowed to flex their muscles a little bit and gain mixes earnings? Or are you as a company and the industry always going to be tied to the pricing and the loss trend such that it's going to be tight going into the years to come, if that makes any sense?

我要說的是，行業是否發生了變化，您將始終關注損失成本，一切都變得更加技術化和先進，以至於保險不會出現長時間的超額定價公司可以稍微秀一下肌肉，獲得混合收益嗎？或者你作為一家公司和這個行業是否總是與定價和損失趨勢聯繫在一起，以至於未來幾年會很緊張，如果這有意義的話？

I think I follow, Josh. And if I'm not answering the question, then please stop me in my tracks, and we'll have another crack at it. But I think the answer is that there's more data, there's more analysis, the more technical, so on and so forth, in the industry today than there was yesterday. That having been said, in spite of all of that, I think there continues to be examples that would suggest the industry continues to struggle with getting its arms around its loss costs in a timely manner.

我想我跟上了，喬希。如果我沒有回答這個問題，那麼請讓我停下來，我們將再次解決這個問題。但我認為答案是，今天的行業比昨天有更多的數據、更多的分析、更多的技術等等。話雖如此，儘管如此，我認為仍然有一些例子表明該行業繼續努力及時解決其損失成本。

We can look at what has happened to the reinsurance marketplace over the relatively past -- recent past years. We can look at workers' compensation, where clearly, it proved even more recently to be much more profitable than people had anticipated. So is there more data analytics and so on involved? Yes, sir, I believe there is. Is it proving to be the silver bullet or the Holy Grail? I think there's a lot of data as of late that would suggest it's not, and it remains a struggle.

我們可以看看過去幾年再保險市場發生了什麼。我們可以看看工傷賠償，很明顯，它最近證明比人們預期的要有利得多。那麼是否涉及更多的數據分析等？是的，先生，我相信有。它被證明是靈丹妙藥還是聖杯？我認為最近有很多數據表明事實並非如此，而且這仍然是一場鬥爭。

So that would be my perspective. Not to beat the topic up too much, I think one of the big differences these days is, again, how separate and distinct major product lines are from one another where they are in the cycle. And the implications for that, what that means to organization's overall profitability and how that may impact their behavior, we'll have to see with time. So I don't know if I answered your question.

這就是我的觀點。不要過分誇大這個話題，我認為如今最大的區別之一是，再次強調，主要產品線在周期中的位置是如何相互分離和截然不同的。對此的影響，這對組織的整體盈利能力意味著什麼，以及這將如何影響他們的行為，我們將不得不隨著時間的推移看到。所以我不知道我是否回答了你的問題。

yes. I mean here's where I'm going. The growth wasn't, with obviously single digits, [driving it] back to double digits. You have the best pricing ex workers' comp that you've had in a number of cores at 8.3. It doesn't feel like with 8.3, that you're so excited to lean into it just yet. Even though you're saying, look, you're going to see that margin come through in the next few quarters, if it were at 8.3, I would think that you feel pretty good about things, and we'd already be at the double digit. I'm not telling you how to run your business, but it just seems like you're already cautious about that.

是的。我的意思是這就是我要去的地方。增長並沒有，顯然是個位數，[推動它]回到兩位數。你有你在 8.3 的許多核心中擁有的最好的前工人補償。感覺不像 8.3，您還很興奮地使用它。即使你說，看，你會在接下來的幾個季度看到利潤率，如果它是 8.3，我認為你對事情感覺很好，我們已經到了兩位數。我不是在告訴你如何經營你的企業，但你似乎已經對此持謹慎態度。

No, I appreciate the observation. And when you first started to ask your question, I was wondering whether you've been sitting in on some of our staff meetings. Because the point that you're raising is one of the important points that we grapple with, and that is, how do we make sure that we're appropriately forward-looking and that we don't tap the brake prematurely? At the same time, how do we make sure in an effort to not tap it prematurely, we don't wait too long to address changes in the market?

不，我感謝您的觀察。當你第一次開始問你的問題時，我想知道你是否參加了我們的一些員工會議。因為你提出的觀點是我們努力解決的重要問題之一，也就是說，我們如何確保我們具有適當的前瞻性並且我們不會過早踩剎車？同時，我們如何確保不過早地挖掘它，我們不會等待太久才能應對市場變化？

And I agree with your point about the 8.3 is very healthy, and we are very much encouraged by that. That having been said, one, as I think you have an appreciation for, we are focused on underwriting margin. We are sensitive to social inflation. We see the claims that the industry is facing every day. Many people read about them in the paper, and the trajectory is quite steep. And we don't want to get caught flat-footed.

我同意你關於 8.3 非常健康的觀點，我們對此感到非常鼓舞。話雖如此，我認為你很欣賞，我們專注於承保保證金。我們對社會通脹很敏感。我們看到該行業每天都面臨著索賠。許多人在論文中讀到過它們，而且軌跡非常陡峭。我們不想措手不及。

I think our growth rate was adversely impacted by a handful, if you will, or so of operating units -- handful and a half of operating companies that are in the group, where market conditions became so challenging. And so less attractive than they were that they drew a line in the sand and that had an impact. In addition to that, sometimes we have a different view than distribution does, as I was suggesting earlier, around rate adequacy.

我認為我們的增長率受到少數（如果你願意的話）運營單位的不利影響 - 集團中的少數和一半的運營公司，市場條件變得如此具有挑戰性。並且沒有他們那麼有吸引力，以至於他們在沙子上畫了一條線並且產生了影響。除此之外，正如我之前所建議的那樣，有時我們對利率充足性的看法與分配不同。

Our obligation is to many stakeholders, including our shareholders, and we are not going to consciously expose the capital unless we believe the rate is appropriate. I think much of what I'm referring to as far as the headwinds we faced, I don't think that they are necessarily going to continue to blow and certainly will not blow as hard in the second half of the year as they did in the first quarter. And as a result of that, I think the other product lines, you're going to see them continue to lift stuff, and the drag will be reduced.

我們對包括我們的股東在內的許多利益相關者負有義務，除非我們認為利率合適，否則我們不會有意識地暴露資本。就我們所面臨的逆風而言，我認為我所指的大部分內容，我認為它們不一定會繼續吹，而且肯定不會像下半年那樣猛烈地吹第一季度。因此，我認為其他產品線，你會看到它們繼續提升東西，阻力會減少。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research。

So yes, the first question, I guess, you mentioned that the property losses, again, hit you this quarter, and you seem to have your hands around that issue. But are you expecting potentially losses to stay elevated there for the time being, like as you're fixing that book? Or...

所以是的，第一個問題，我猜，你提到財產損失，本季度再次打擊你，你似乎已經解決了這個問題。但是你是否預計潛在的損失暫時會保持在較高水平，就像你正在修復那本書一樣？或者...

Look, I can't say with any conviction or certainty, Ryan, how quickly that's going to get back to where we would like it to. What I can tell you is I think we're getting our arms around it. It takes a little bit of time for that to earn through. The other point as it relates to the accident year loss ratio, which I know is a topic that I've had the opportunity to visit with you about, is how we think about the current year in light of the rate increases that we have gotten.

看，瑞安，我不能肯定地說，這將以多快的速度回到我們希望的位置。我可以告訴你的是，我認為我們正在全力以赴。這需要一點時間才能完成。與事故年損失率有關的另一點，我知道這是我有機會與您討論的一個話題，是我們如何根據我們已經獲得的利率增長來考慮今年.

And I would tell you that I think the challenges that the industry and, again, we, to a certain extent, faced '16 through '19, are shrinking in the rearview mirror. And I think the more recent years every quarter, every day, season a little bit more, and that could have implications to how we think about loss picks for the second half of the year.

而且我會告訴你，我認為這個行業以及我們在一定程度上面臨的 16 到 19 年面臨的挑戰正在後視鏡中縮小。而且我認為最近幾年每個季度，每一天，季節都多一點，這可能會對我們如何看待下半年的損失選擇產生影響。

Got it. And then on the expense ratio, it was sub-29%. I heard Rich say you expect it to be sub-30% for the rest of the year. Is that just sort of a generic comment? Or can you try to say the expense ratio tick up from here?

知道了。然後在費用率方面，它低於 29%。我聽 Rich 說你預計今年剩餘時間它會低於 30%。這只是一種籠統的評論嗎？或者你能試著說費用比率從這裡開始上升嗎？

I think what we're trying to say is that the expense ratio is going to float sort of between 28% and 30%. We don't have it down to the basis point, if you will. The tick-up that you've seen in part, as Rich mentioned earlier, some of it actually has to do with sort of people traveling and engaging a bit more. There's some of that. The other part, as he indirectly referenced, is we're making some investments in technology as well.

我想我們想說的是費用率將在 28% 到 30% 之間浮動。如果你願意的話，我們沒有把它降到基點。正如 Rich 之前提到的，你看到的部分增長實際上與旅行和參與更多的人有關。有一些。正如他間接提到的，另一部分是我們也在對技術進行一些投資。

And of course, the ceding commissions, which sometimes the cedes are going down with existing structures, but also as Rich suggested, which is often the case, we're pivoting from a quota share to an XOL, which carries a different ceding commission, but we like the trade.

當然，割讓佣金，有時割讓會隨著現有結構而下降，但也正如 Rich 建議的那樣，通常情況下，我們正在從配額份額轉向 XOL，它帶有不同的割讓佣金，但我們喜歡這筆交易。

Got it. And then just lastly, Rob, on the buyback, can you give us some color on the timing of when you execute those repurchases? And have you guys been in the market at all during April?

知道了。最後，Rob，關於回購，你能給我們一些關於你執行這些回購的時間的顏色嗎？你們四月份有沒有去過市場？

So as far as the repurchase goes, to be perfectly frank, I don't have the data in front of me, but we'd be happy to try and give you some more color if it wouldn't be too much trouble to circle back with Rich or Karen. Or if you can't find them, grab me off-line, and we'll do the best we can to give you some color on that, but I don't have it in front of me.

所以就回購而言，坦率地說，我手頭沒有數據，但我們很樂意嘗試給你更多的顏色，如果圈起來不會太麻煩的話回到 Rich 或 Karen。或者，如果您找不到它們，請離線聯繫我，我們會盡我們所能為您提供一些顏色，但我面前沒有。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

你的下一個問題來自 Mark Hughes 與 Truist 的對話。

Just a little more detail on the other liability line. I think you've said the casualty, E&S primary you think is attractive here. The other liability premium growth did slow in the quarter. I'm just -- I'm curious whether that's something you think is going to reaccelerate as the year progresses? And if I might ask kind of what were you seeing in pricing trends in that liability line in Q1 versus Q4.

關於其他責任線的更多細節。我想你已經說過傷亡，你認為這裡的 E&S 小學很有吸引力。本季度其他負債保費增長確實放緩。我只是 - 我很好奇你認為隨著時間的推移這是否會重新加速？如果我可能會問你在第一季度和第四季度的責任線定價趨勢中看到了什麼。

Yes. I think the -- generally speaking, the most attractive areas that we're seeing is particularly in the E&S. And I should have mentioned this earlier, Mark, I appreciate you raising it. The flow of business that we talk about from time to time coming out of the standard market into the E&S market remains quite robust to say the least. And we're feeling very good about that.

是的。我認為——一般來說，我們看到的最具吸引力的領域尤其是在 E&S 領域。我應該早點提到這個，馬克，感謝你提出這個問題。我們不時談論的業務流從標準市場進入 E&S 市場至少可以說仍然非常強勁。我們對此感覺非常好。

The one outlier would be product liability, where it would seem the standard market, particularly national carriers, regained a bit of an appetite. But beyond that, we're feeling really good. I think you should see some growth or accelerating growth potentially later in the year on the other liability front as far as we go.

一個例外是產品責任，似乎標準市場，尤其是國家承運人，重新獲得了一點胃口。但除此之外，我們感覺非常好。我認為你應該會在今年晚些時候在其他負債方面看到一些增長或加速增長。

And then the noninsurance businesses, the revenue was up pretty meaningfully this quarter. Was that just a timing issue or some other driver?

然後是非保險業務，本季度的收入增長非常顯著。那隻是時間問題還是其他驅動因素？

Rich, was that Greenwich Aero or...

里奇，是格林威治航空公司還是……

No, that was -- we had acquired a business last year. And so in the first quarter of 2022, it was not in the numbers because we didn't acquire it at that point.

不，那是——我們去年收購了一家企業。所以在 2022 年第一季度，它不在數字中，因為我們當時沒有收購它。

That was a business that's part of our in-house private equity, Rich, correct?

那是我們內部私募股權的一部分，Rich，對嗎？

That is part of our private equity operations, yes.

是的，這是我們私募股權業務的一部分。

Yes, our in-house operation. So it's a wholly owned sub.

是的，我們的內部操作。所以這是一家全資子公司。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I had to you guys was just going back to commercial real estate, less about your portfolio currently, but more about -- could that be an existing opportunity, particularly since you're a little short on duration right now, to go a bit bigger in a more distressed market?

我對你們說的第一個問題是回到商業房地產，而不是關於你目前的投資組合，但更多的是——這是否是一個現有的機會，特別是因為你現在的持續時間有點短，去在更困難的市場中做大一點？

Alex, from our perspective, as I hope you're aware, we're an opportunistic participant. We're certainly conscious of the challenges that the real estate asset class faces today. And we are, again, not going to do anything that one would view as naive. At the same time, if we found attractive opportunities that we thought made sense for our shareholders, then I can sure you that we will be pursuing. So real estate has its challenges, but we're not in a rush to become overweighted. At the same time, if we see opportunities, that's fine.

亞歷克斯，從我們的角度來看，我希望你知道，我們是一個機會主義的參與者。我們當然意識到房地產資產類別今天面臨的挑戰。再次強調，我們不會做任何人們認為天真的事情。與此同時，如果我們找到了我們認為對我們的股東有意義的有吸引力的機會，那麼我可以向你保證我們會追求。所以房地產有其挑戰，但我們並不急於增持。同時，如果我們看到機會，那很好。

Got it. And then just on professional lines and the potential headwinds -- or I guess ongoing headwinds to be faced there, how would you quantify that in terms of how much is sort of taken away from some of the other things that are contributing to margin improvement right now?

知道了。然後就專業領域和潛在的逆風——或者我想那裡會面臨持續的逆風，你如何量化從有助於提高利潤率的其他一些事情中拿走多少？現在？

Our margin improvement or top line growth? Or what are we talking about?

我們的利潤率提高還是收入增長？或者我們在說什麼？

Margin improvement. Sorry. I'm just interested particularly in -- is that a drag on margins? Can you help us think about how much (inaudible)?

邊際改善。對不起。我只是特別感興趣——這會拖累利潤率嗎？你能幫我們想想有多少（聽不清）？

I don't think that it's having a meaningful impact on our margins because of our colleagues' underwriting discipline. It certainly is having an impact on our top line also because of their underwriting discipline. And it would be measured in percentage points on the group overall.

由於我們同事的承保紀律，我認為這不會對我們的利潤產生有意義的影響。由於他們的承銷紀律，這當然也對我們的收入產生了影響。它將以整個組的百分比來衡量。

Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 系列。

It's Yaron. I'm just curious with the comments on the shift from quota share to excess of loss in -- specifically in insurance. Why is it that we wouldn't see the ceding ratio go down a bit as a result of that? I think it was pretty stable year-over-year.

是雅龍。我只是對關於從配額份額到超額損失的轉變的評論感到好奇——特別是在保險領域。為什麼我們不會因此而看到讓出率下降一點？我認為它與去年同期相比相當穩定。

Rich, do you want to speak to that? We were just talking about it earlier.

Rich，你想談談嗎？我們之前只是在談論它。

Sure. So when we move to the excess of loss, we don't technically receive ceding commissions, right? On a quota share basis, you're going to receive ceding commissions. On an excess of loss basis, we're going to have minimums in deposits and cost based on subject premium. Those numbers are going to be more, I'll say, fixed in nature as opposed to quota shares, which are proportional.

當然。因此，當我們轉向超額虧損時，從技術上講，我們不會收到放棄佣金，對嗎？在配額份額的基礎上，您將收到讓出的佣金。在超額損失的基礎上，我們將根據主題保費將最低存款和成本。這些數字將更多，我會說，在本質上是固定的，而不是成比例的配額份額。

And so those are going to move in parity, if you will, as gross premiums written move up or down. And so for that reason, the ceded premium would not be moving up and down by being in a position where we have the excess of loss arrangements. So that's causing that change. And I think you could see that when you look at the change from a dollars perspective. Gross premiums written grew at 6.6% for the group overall.

因此，如果您願意的話，隨著毛保費的上升或下降，它們將保持一致。因此，出於這個原因，讓出的保費不會因為處於我們有超額損失安排的位置而上下波動。這就是導致這種變化的原因。當你從美元的角度來看變化時，我認為你可以看到這一點。整個集團的毛保費收入增長了 6.6%。

The net premiums written grew at 6.7%, and the ceded written premium changed by about 6.2%. So it kind of moved in parity, if you will. But that's -- once again, we have over 125 reinsurance arrangements that we purchased across the group overall, and there's a lot of moving pieces between them.

承保淨保費增長 6.7%，分出保費變動約 6.2%。所以如果你願意的話，它有點平價。但那是——再一次，我們在整個集團內購買了超過 125 項再保險安排，並且它們之間有很多移動部分。

Okay. I may follow up off-line because I'm still a little confused here. And then my second question, Rob, I think you may have alluded to some seasoning of the 2020 and 2021 accident years and just the very strong environment that you faced in those years. Is that why we're starting to see maybe an acceleration of releases in some of the longer-tail lines, such as other liability from 2020 and '21?

好的。我可能會離線跟進，因為我在這裡仍然有點困惑。然後是我的第二個問題，Rob，我想你可能提到了 2020 年和 2021 年事故年的一些變化，以及你在那些年面臨的非常強大的環境。這就是為什麼我們開始看到一些長尾線的發布可能加速，例如 2020 年和 21 年的其他責任？

Quite frankly, as things, to your point, season out, we developed, through the passage of time, greater comfort, greater clarity around where things are going to settle. And we deliberately did not want to declare victory prematurely. And I think, again, as time continues to pass, you're going to see us develop a greater degree of confidence as to what the outcomes are going to be in some of these more recent years.

坦率地說，就你的觀點而言，隨著時間的推移，隨著時間的流逝，我們開發了更舒適、更清晰的事物解決方案。而且我們故意不想過早地宣布勝利。而且我再次認為，隨著時間的推移，你會看到我們對最近幾年的結果會產生更大程度的信心。

Right. I'm just -- I guess I'm coming out from a slightly different perspective. It seems to me like we're seeing some acceleration of that favorable development from those years, relatively early, considering that we're a year or 2 out for these longer tail lines. So is that just because the number -- the years were so incredibly good that you are gaining that comfort level sooner?

正確的。我只是——我想我的觀點略有不同。在我看來，考慮到這些較長的尾線我們還有一年或兩年的時間，我們似乎看到了那些年有利發展的一些加速，相對較早。那麼，這僅僅是因為數字——這些年非常好，以至於你更快地獲得了那種舒適度嗎？

I think the answer is that we have -- we've gone through a pretty extensive analysis that we'd be happy to talk with you about off-line, but it probably would take up quite a bit of time. But if you're interested, we'd be happy to walk you through what we've done.

我認為答案是我們已經 - 我們已經進行了相當廣泛的分析，我們很樂意與您討論離線，但這可能會佔用相當多的時間。但如果您有興趣，我們很樂意向您介紹我們所做的一切。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Brian Meredith。

Rob, a couple of quick ones here for you. The first one, was there any impact in the quarter from your FI book from some of the banking kind of losses and maybe that had a little impact on some of your loss ratios or not?

Rob，這裡有幾個快速的。第一個，您的 FI 賬簿中的某些銀行類損失對本季度是否有任何影響，也許這對您的某些損失率有一點影響？

No, nothing that would be outside of the loss ratio picks that we're carrying for the product lines. We've -- will we have some exposure? Yes, but relative to the group overall, it just kind of flows through.

不，沒有什麼會超出我們為產品線選擇的損失率。我們 - 我們會有一些曝光嗎？是的，但相對於整個團隊，它只是一種流動。

Makes sense. And I guess my second question is, as we look at -- you're looking into 2023 here. Did you change your view at all on loss trend as you look into 2023, particularly given your comments maybe in commercial and auto? And then also, if I look at your 1Q '23, you talked about the noncat weather issues. Did you change your casualty loss picks year-over-year? Did they go up, down, stay the same from a casualty perspective kind of overall?

說得通。我想我的第二個問題是，正如我們所看到的——你在這裡展望 2023 年。在展望 2023 年時，您是否完全改變了對損失趨勢的看法，特別是考慮到您可能在商業和汽車領域發表的評論？然後，如果我看一下你的 23 年第一季度，你談到了非貓天氣問題。您是否逐年更改了傷亡損失選擇？從整體傷亡的角度來看，他們是否上升、下降、保持不變？

So we, with some regularity, are looking at our picks and trying to make sure that they're where they should be. The answer is, Brian, that some move up and some move down depending on the data. We look at the business at a pretty granular level by operating company, by product line. So I don't have off the top of my head exactly what the net impact was, but there are certainly some things that we've picked up and maybe a couple of things that we've dropped.

因此，我們會定期查看我們的選擇，並努力確保它們處於應有的位置。布賴恩，答案是，根據數據，有些會上升，有些會下降。我們按運營公司、產品線在相當精細的層面上看待業務。所以我並沒有想清楚淨影響是什麼，但肯定有一些我們已經接受的東西，也許還有一些我們已經放棄的東西。

And loss trends, any thoughts?

和損失趨勢，有什麼想法嗎？

As far as loss trend goes, if our -- the view that we had, generally speaking, around loss trend that we entered the year with remains intact. It certainly -- we appreciate that maybe economic inflation has cooled a little bit, but we remain very concerned about social inflation. And we think we're in a good place relative to that. But we don't think that this is the moment in time to reduce the focus, the intensity and making sure that we're getting -- collecting enough premium to keep up with that trend.

就損失趨勢而言，如果我們 - 一般來說，我們對進入今年的損失趨勢的看法保持不變。當然——我們意識到經濟通脹可能已經有所降溫，但我們仍然非常關注社會通脹。我們認為我們在這方面處於有利地位。但我們不認為現在是時候降低焦點、強度並確保我們得到——收集足夠的溢價以跟上這一趨勢。

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields with KBW 系列。

Great. Rob, I was hoping we could follow up on some earlier questions by line of business. You talked about workers' compensation largely growing through, I guess, higher payrolls. Can you talk about what's driving the commercial auto growth? I'm asking because the sense we're getting is that there's still an awful lot of either social inflation or driver shortages that would pressure the line. I hope you could talk through what you're seeing.

偉大的。 Rob，我希望我們可以按業務線跟進一些較早的問題。你談到工人薪酬在很大程度上是通過增加工資而增長的。您能談談是什麼推動了商用車的增長嗎？我問是因為我們得到的感覺是仍然存在大量的社會通貨膨脹或司機短缺會給線路帶來壓力。我希望你能說出你所看到的。

The commercial auto line and the growth that we are seeing is really a combination -- it's primarily -- a lot of it's rate, for starters. I don't recall exactly how much rate we got in that product line, but it was meaningful, particularly on the auto liability front, but across the board. So I think that is really the bigger driver. When you look at the growth, in addition to that, we do have a new operation in the space, and they're getting some momentum as well. But for the most part, I think what you're seeing as far as the commercial auto growth, a lot of that is really just driven by rate increases.

商用汽車生產線和我們看到的增長實際上是一個組合——它主要是——對於初學者來說，它的速度很大。我不記得我們在該產品線中獲得了多少利率，但它是有意義的，特別是在汽車責任方面，但全面。所以我認為這確實是更大的驅動力。當您查看增長時，除此之外，我們確實在該領域開展了一項新業務，並且他們也獲得了一些動力。但在大多數情況下，我認為你所看到的商用汽車增長，其中很多實際上只是由利率上漲推動的。

Okay. That's good to hear. And then second question, I don't know if this is better for Rich, but you talked about the impact of changing reinsurance on the expense ratio. Should we see some sort of benefit in the loss ratio to the extent that you're moving reinsurance to XOL from quota share?

好的。聽起來還不錯。然後是第二個問題，我不知道這對 Rich 是否更好，但你談到了改變再保險對費用率的影響。如果您將再保險從配額份額轉移到 XOL，我們是否應該看到損失率的某種好處？

The answer is that we think that it's going to -- what you're going to see is we're going to hold on to more premium. And we think that the loss ratio is healthy. But I don't think you're going to see that benefit immediately because of how we assume a recovery or not. Rich, did you have anything you wanted to add to that?

答案是我們認為它會——你將看到的是我們將堅持更高的溢價。我們認為損失率是健康的。但我不認為你會立即看到這種好處，因為我們如何假設復甦與否。 Rich，你有什麼想補充的嗎？

No. I think that was exactly spot on, Rob. I would agree with your comment.

不，我認為那是正確的，Rob。我同意你的評論。

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

So just -- I had -- just a question just on the non-cap property losses this quarter. I think there were fire losses last quarter when you had it. Wondering if you could elaborate or was it fire again? And then maybe talk about what changes outside of just seeking additional rate you're making to address these? And if this impacted your approach at all to growing property?

所以 - 我 - 只是一個關於本季度非上限財產損失的問題。我認為上個季度有火災損失。想知道你是否可以詳細說明或者它又火了？然後也許可以談談您正在為解決這些問題而尋求額外費用之外的哪些變化？如果這完全影響了您增加財產的方法？

So the answer is that certainly fire and other non-cat-related losses were a meaningful piece of the puzzle. While rate helps solve the puzzle, the -- I think part of the solution is also coming from selection. The work that I referred to that colleagues have done on this front. Certainly, again, rate is a piece of it, but I think it's even more so about selection. Was there another piece that I missed? Sorry.

所以答案是，火災和其他與巨災無關的損失肯定是一個有意義的難題。雖然比率有助於解決這個難題，但我認為部分解決方案也來自選擇。我提到的同事們在這方面所做的工作。當然，價格也是其中的一部分，但我認為選擇更是如此。我錯過了另一篇文章嗎？對不起。

Yes. And then I guess just there is -- we've seen it in the past few quarters in the underlying or in the accident year loss ratio ex cat as well as in the cat line, I guess, well, it was adverse PYD this quarter. But is this volatility? I guess how are you viewing this? Has this impacted your approach to growing property at all?

是的。然後我想只有 - 我們在過去幾個季度中看到了它在基礎或事故年損失率中的貓以及貓線，我想，好吧，本季度 PYD 不利.但這是波動嗎？我猜你怎麼看這個？這是否完全影響了您增加財產的方法？

I think it hasn't necessarily had a blanket impact on us as to how we think about growing property, but it certainly has been instructive as we've done some work as to how we think about rate and selection.

我認為它不一定對我們如何看待增長的財產產生全面影響，但它肯定具有指導意義，因為我們已經做了一些關於我們如何考慮利率和選擇的工作。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then you mentioned a few times throughout the call, Rob, just there are certain product lines that you're deemphasizing, a few operating units where you had to draw a line in the sand. Outside of [public], could you just touch on what lines those are?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後你在整個電話會議中多次提到，Rob，只是有一些你沒有強調的產品線，一些你必須在沙子上畫線的運營單位。在 [public] 之外，你能談談那些是什麼線嗎？

Sure. There was -- some of -- it's a little bit anecdotal, so I would encourage you not to read too deeply into it. But certainly, there was some other professional liability that we took a firm -- or we have taken a firm position on, again, to my colleague's credit. Some of that is written out of the U.S. Some of it is written out of our Lloyd's operation.

當然。有——其中一些——有點軼事，所以我鼓勵你不要太深入地閱讀它。但可以肯定的是，我們承擔了一些其他的專業責任——或者我們已經採取了堅定的立場，這再次歸功於我的同事。其中一些是從美國開出的。其中一些是從我們勞合社的業務中開出的。

In addition to that, we've taken a bit of a firm position on certain aspects of our participation in the commercial transportation space, where, again, as I suggested earlier, we just have a different view than our distribution partners did around rate adequacy amongst other things. And that's life, and we wish them well. But professional and commercial auto would be the 2 big areas that come to mind.

除此之外，我們在參與商業運輸領域的某些方面採取了一些堅定的立場，正如我之前所建議的那樣，我們與我們的分銷合作夥伴對費率充足性的看法不同除其他事項外。這就是生活，我們希望他們一切順利。但專業汽車和商用汽車將是我想到的兩大領域。

Got it. And then maybe just a higher-level question just on social inflation. You've mentioned it a number of times and potential problems looming for the industry on '19 and prior years. I guess just by your estimation, how far along are we in terms of seeing some of the courts reopen and maybe some of those claims actually come through and actually see that starting to hit some of the carriers and just the industry overall?

知道了。然後可能只是一個關於社會通脹的更高層次的問題。你已經多次提到它，以及 19 年和之前幾年行業面臨的潛在問題。我想根據你的估計，我們在看到一些法院重新開放方面走了多遠，也許其中一些索賠實際上已經通過並且實際上看到它開始打擊一些運營商和整個行業？

Yes. So certainly, from our perspective, by and large, the legal system is up. And I almost said functioning, I really should say running because I'm not sure if it's always functioning. But the short answer is, I think the general consensus on -- in our shop, and again, it varies by jurisdiction, but there's probably still, call it, give or take, an 18-month delay relative to where things were pre-COVID.

是的。因此，從我們的角度來看，總的來說，法律體系肯定是健全的。我幾乎說功能正常，我真的應該說跑步，因為我不確定它是否一直在運行。但簡短的回答是，我認為普遍的共識是——在我們的商店裡，它因司法管轄區而異，但可能仍然有 18 個月的延遲，相對於事情發生前的地方——冠狀病毒。

And I think people are trying to catch up. But I think beyond the delay, I think it would be a mistake for anyone to underestimate how aggressive the plaintiff bar is these days. And oftentimes, people read about some monster headline and they think of it -- some monster award in a headline, I should say. And they think about it in a one-off manner. And I would suggest that oftentimes, that's just the tip of the spear.

我認為人們正在努力迎頭趕上。但我認為除了延遲之外，我認為任何人低估如今原告律師協會的激進程度都是錯誤的。通常，人們讀到一些怪物標題，他們會想到它——我應該說，標題中有一些怪物獎項。他們以一次性的方式考慮它。而且我經常建議，這只是矛尖。

So it's a very challenging moment. We feel very good about how we have approached making sure that we have set enough aside for what claims cost will be both today and tomorrow. And we think our colleagues that are handling these claims are very well skilled to ensure the appropriate outcome for all stakeholders, including our insureds.

所以這是一個非常具有挑戰性的時刻。我們對如何確保為今天和明天的索賠成本預留足夠的資金感到非常滿意。我們認為處理這些索賠的同事非常熟練，可以確保為包括我們的被保險人在內的所有利益相關者提供適當的結果。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。

Just a quick follow-up on just the overall marketplace competitiveness and dynamics. I -- just curious, if anything other than increased data analytics has caused the pricing environment to, maybe (inaudible) is not the right word, but to change pretty fast in a number of lines of business. You've said a number of times how the market is not moving in lockstep.

只是對整體市場競爭力和動態的快速跟進。我 - 只是好奇，如果除了增加數據分析之外的任何其他因素導致定價環境，也許（聽不清）不是正確的詞，而是在許多業務線中快速變化。你已經多次說過市場是如何不同步的。

Is anything like a structural change with broker consolidation or just maybe barriers to entry are lower on the -- I'll be quiet, but the -- on the March call today, for example, they talked about 20 new carriers entering the professional liability space, which has caused the soft market there. So just curious if anything has changed or this is just how it always used to be.

是像經紀商整合帶來的結構性變化，還是進入壁壘降低了——我會保持安靜，但是——例如，在今天 3 月的電話會議上，他們談到了 20 家新運營商進入專業責任領域空間，這導致那裡的市場疲軟。所以只是好奇是否有任何變化，或者這就是過去的樣子。

Okay. I think just picking up on that point, if I may, if we use public D&O, particularly large account public D&O, which is certainly a product line that is of great interest to an organization like [Marsh], I think there are a couple of realities in that -- and what I mean by that is both the supply and the demand side are struggling. So I don't know if the number is 20, but clearly, there have been a lot of new entrants.

好的。我認為，如果可以的話，如果我們使用公共 D&O，特別是大客戶公共 D&O，這肯定是像 [Marsh] 這樣的組織非常感興趣的產品線，我認為有幾個其中的現實——我的意思是供需雙方都在苦苦掙扎。所以我不知道這個數字是不是 20 個，但很明顯，有很多新加入者。

I think some of the reality is there's not a lot of barriers to entry to getting into that space. So clearly, there's more supply. I think the bigger issue relative to where we were not that long ago is the reduced demand. Given what's been going on in the capital markets, we have seen a dramatic reduction in IPOs. We've just seen a dramatic reduction in a lot of the activity that would drive D&O purchasing.

我認為一些現實情況是進入該領域並沒有太多障礙。很明顯，有更多的供應。我認為與我們不久前的情況相比，更大的問題是需求減少。鑑於資本市場正在發生的事情，我們看到 IPO 急劇減少。我們剛剛看到許多推動 D&O 採購的活動大幅減少。

In addition to that transactional liability is something that tends to go hand-in-hand with those that are offering D&O. So M&A activity has reduced dramatically. IPOs, SPAC activity, et cetera, et cetera, has fallen off a cliff. So you have a little bit of a perfect storm. And not to create too much of a negative connotation, but the reality is that the demand has been reduced, and the supply has increased, and that has led to an unattractive competitive environment from our perspective.

除了交易責任之外，還有一些東西往往與提供 D&O 的人並駕齊驅。因此併購活動急劇減少。首次公開募股、SPAC 活動等等，已經從懸崖上掉下來了。所以你有一點完美風暴。並不是要製造太多的負面含義，但現實是需求減少了，供應增加了，從我們的角度來看，這導致了一個沒有吸引力的競爭環境。

Our colleagues, I think, as I suggested earlier, very knowledgeable, very skilled. They understand that their job is not to issue insurance policies. They are capital managers, and they are going to expose the capital in ways that they think is sensible.

我認為，正如我之前所說，我們的同事知識淵博，技術嫻熟。他們明白他們的工作不是簽發保險單。他們是資本管理者，他們會以他們認為合理的方式暴露資本。

This concludes our Q&A for today. I turn the call back over to Rob Berkley for closing remarks.

今天的問答到此結束。我將電話轉回給 Rob Berkley 以作結束語。

Okay. Emma, thank you very much. We appreciate everyone's participation. We look forward to speaking with you again in 90 days. Before we sign off, I'm going to hand it over to my boss, who is here, who has a couple of final comments.

好的。艾瑪，非常感謝你。我們感謝大家的參與。我們期待在 90 天后再次與您交談。在我們結束之前，我要把它交給我的老闆，他在場，他有一些最後的評論。

I think that it is a business that's easy to get into. And everyone needs to remember that it's not so easy to get out. You sign on the very long-term commitments. And the brokers who have their customers really need to be sure they get paid. So very quickly, if you don't meet your commitments, use your place in the market. We've been here now for more than 55 years, and we've always operated with a long run view, always understanding what risk means and always understanding that our commitment to our customer, our ultimate customer, the ensured, is paramount.

我認為這是一個容易進入的行業。每個人都需要記住，脫身並不容易。您簽署非常長期的承諾。擁有客戶的經紀人確實需要確保他們得到報酬。所以很快，如果你沒有履行你的承諾，請使用你在市場上的位置。我們在這裡已經超過 55 年了，我們始終以長遠的眼光運營，始終了解風險的含義，始終了解我們對客戶、我們的最終客戶、有保障的承諾是最重要的。

Sometimes, that means we don't go along with what everyone else does. But we have a good, sensible approach. And for us, the better the data you have, the better you can respond, the better job you can do. We continue to be optimistic that we're in touch with the marketplace, in touch with our customers and our distribution. And while we may miss a beat here and there, we're pretty optimistic that we're going along right where we ought to be. And we do see that we'll grow a lot when the opportunity to maximize our returns is there, and we'll husband our capital when it's going to be marginal return.

有時，這意味著我們不同意其他人所做的事情。但我們有一個好的、明智的方法。對我們來說，您擁有的數據越好，您的反應就越好，您就能做得更好。我們繼續樂觀地認為，我們與市場保持聯繫，與我們的客戶和我們的分銷保持聯繫。雖然我們可能會在這里和那裡錯過一個節拍，但我們非常樂觀地認為我們正朝著我們應該去的地方前進。我們確實看到，當有機會最大化我們的回報時，我們會增長很多，而當它成為邊際回報時，我們會節儉我們的資本。

So I thank all of you. I thank all of you for supporting us all these years. And I look forward to demonstrating our commitment and our success. Thank you very much.

所以我感謝你們所有人。我感謝大家這些年來對我們的支持。我期待著展示我們的承諾和我們的成功。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連接。