W R Berkley Corp (WRB) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to W. R. Berkley Corporation's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 W.R. Berkley Corporation 的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音。

The speakers' remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, beliefs, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as representation by us that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will, in fact, be achieved.

演講者的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。一些前瞻性陳述可以通過使用前瞻性詞語來識別，包括但不限於信念、期望或估計。我們提醒您，此類前瞻性陳述不應被視為我們代表我們預期的未來計劃、估計或期望實際上將會實現。

Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. W. R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of the new information, future events or otherwise.

請參閱我們截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件，了解我們經營所在的商業環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素的描述。 W. R. Berkley Corporation 不承擔任何義務，並明確聲明不承擔更新或更改其前瞻性陳述的任何此類義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給羅布·伯克利先生。請繼續，先生。

Breanna, thank you very much, and good afternoon all. And again, welcome to our second quarter call. Along with me on this end of the phone, we also have our Executive Chairman, Bill Berkley, as well as Chief Financial Officer, Rich Baio. And we're going to follow our typical agenda where momentarily, I'm going to hand it over to Rich, who will walk us through some highlights from the quarter. I will follow up with a few observations after Rich makes his comments, and then we will be opening it up for Q&A.

Breanna，非常感謝你，大家下午好。再次歡迎您參加我們的第二季度電話會議。與我一起在電話那頭的還有我們的執行主席比爾·伯克利 (Bill Berkley) 以及首席財務官里奇·拜奧 (Rich Baio)。我們將遵循我們的典型議程，我將暫時將其交給 Rich，他將向我們介紹本季度的一些亮點。在里奇發表評論後，我將跟進一些觀察結果，然後我們將開放問答。

Before I hand it over to Rich, a few comments from me. Based on everything, I can see -- it would look as though the stage is being set for what one might call yet another but-for quarter for the industry. It would seem as though cat losses don't make a difference. And bizarrely, from our perspective, people seem very quick to back out cat losses as though it's not real money. But ironically, they don't seem to back out the premium associated with the exposure that just had the losses. So again, from our perspective, it's no wonder why the industry struggles oftentimes to make good risk-adjusted returns. In order to do that, one needs to recognize the exposure taking on and not pretend that it doesn't exist, particularly when it occurs.

在將其交給 Rich 之前，我先發表一些評論。基於一切，我可以看到——看起來似乎正在為該行業的又一個季度做好準備。看來貓的損失並沒有什麼影響。奇怪的是，從我們的角度來看，人們似乎很快就收回了貓的損失，就好像這不是真正的錢一樣。但諷刺的是，他們似乎並沒有收回與剛剛遭受損失的風險敞口相關的溢價。因此，從我們的角度來看，該行業經常難以獲得良好的風險調整回報也就不足為奇了。為了做到這一點，人們需要認識到正在發生的暴露，而不是假裝它不存在，尤其是當它發生時。

Through our lens, we are in the capital management business. We are focused on risk-adjusted returns, and around here, cat losses count. In our opinion, it is not Monopoly money. It is real money. And when we measure how we are doing, we do not back out cat losses. Perhaps we are a bit of an exception to the industry, but ultimately, we think it is an economic reality, and that's not something we shy away from. So with that, Rich, if you would, please.

通過我們的視角，我們從事的是資本管理業務。我們專注於風險調整後的回報，在這裡，巨額損失很重要。我們認為，這不是壟斷貨幣。這是真金白銀。當我們衡量我們的表現時，我們不會否認貓的損失。也許我們是這個行業的一個例外，但最終，我們認為這是一個經濟現實，這不是我們迴避的事情。那麼，Rich，如果你願意的話，請說。

Of course. Thanks, Rob. Net income doubled from the prior year quarter, resulting in $356 million or $1.30 per share. Annualized return on beginning of year equity was 21.1%, driven by strong underwriting and record investment income results. Operating return on equity was excellent at 18.4%, and the heightened industry-wide catastrophe activity in the quarter enabled us to once again demonstrate our underwriting discipline in challenging environments. Simultaneously, our decision to maintain a short duration, high credit quality investment portfolio has enabled us to benefit from higher interest rates.

當然。謝謝，羅布。淨利潤比去年同期翻了一番，達到 3.56 億美元，即每股 1.30 美元。得益於強勁的承銷和創紀錄的投資收益結果，年初股本年化回報率為 21.1%。股本運營回報率為 18.4%，表現出色，本季度全行業災難活動的加劇使我們能夠在充滿挑戰的環境中再次展示我們的承保紀律。同時，我們決定維持短期、高信用質量的投資組合，使我們能夠從更高的利率中受益。

Net investment income increased almost 43% to a record $245 million. The core investment portfolio grew 71.6%, driven by a higher book yield at 4.2% in the quarter compared with the preceding consecutive quarter of 3.8% and second quarter of 2022 of 2.6%. Second quarter operating cash flows of $709 million, combined with the first quarter, brings us to a first half year record of almost $1.2 billion and strengthens our ability to grow investable assets at higher interest rates. A duration of 2.3 years also positions us well to reinvest assets at a higher new money rate on fixed maturity securities compared to the roll-off of existing investments while maintaining our high credit quality of AA-.

淨投資收入增長近 43%，達到創紀錄的 2.45 億美元。核心投資組合增長了 71.6%，得益於本季度賬面收益率上升至 4.2%，而上一季度的賬面收益率為 3.8%，2022 年第二季度的賬面收益率為 2.6%。第二季度運營現金流為 7.09 億美元，與第一季度相結合，使我們創下了近 12 億美元的上半年紀錄，並增強了我們以更高利率增長可投資資產的能力。與現有投資的展期相比，2.3 年的期限也使我們能夠以更高的新貨幣利率將資產再投資於固定期限證券，同時保持 AA- 的高信用質量。

The investment funds reflected a loss of $1 million, driven by a decline in market values in certain funds in the consumer goods, real estate and financial services sectors. Please keep in mind that we report our investment funds on a 1-quarter lag. Pretax net investment gains in the quarter of $59 million is comprised of net realized gains on investments of $47 million and an improvement in unrealized gains on equity securities of $21 million, partially offset by an increase in current expected credit losses of $10 million.

由於消費品、房地產和金融服務領域某些基金的市值下跌，這些投資基金虧損了 100 萬美元。請記住，我們報告的投資資金存在 1 個季度的滯後。本季度稅前淨投資收益為 5,900 萬美元，其中包括 4,700 萬美元的投資已實現淨收益和 2,100 萬美元的股本證券未實現收益的改善，部分被當前預期信用損失增加 1,000 萬美元所抵消。

Turning to underwriting results. Underwriting income was $265 million, representing a calendar year combined ratio of 89.6%. Current accident year catastrophe losses were $54 million or 2.1 loss ratio points compared with the prior year of $58 million or 2.5 loss ratio points. Prior year development was favorable by $3 million or 0.1 loss ratio points, bringing our current accident year combined ratio ex cats to 87.6%. Current accident year loss ratio ex cats was 59.5%. The expense ratio ticked up 0.4 points to 28.1% in the quarter, consistent with the expectations we previously communicated.

轉向承保結果。承保收入為2.65億美元，歷年綜合成本率為89.6%。當前事故年的巨災損失為 5,400 萬美元，損失比為 2.1 個百分點，而上一年為 5,800 萬美元，損失比為 2.5 個百分點。去年的發展有利 300 萬美元或 0.1 個損失率點，使我們當前的事故年綜合比率前貓達到 87.6%。當前事故年度貓損失率為 59.5%。本季度費用率上升 0.4 個百分點，達到 28.1%，與我們之前傳達的預期一致。

The 2 main contributors include the change in reinsurance structures as well as increased compensation costs and start-up operating unit expenses. We're working hard to identify and implement innovative strategies to drive operating efficiencies and leverage technology in order to reduce operating expenses across the entire organization.

兩個主要因素包括再保險結構的變化以及補償成本和啟動運營單位費用的增加。我們正在努力確定和實施創新戰略，以提高運營效率並利用技術來降低整個組織的運營費用。

Closing out the underwriting discussion with premium production. We increased gross premiums written by 9.3% to a record $3.3 billion, and net premiums written increased 8.7% to a record $2.8 billion. All lines of business grew in the Insurance segment, with the exception of professional liability and workers' compensation, while property reinsurance grew in the Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment.

以優質生產結束承保討論。我們的毛保費增長了 9.3%，達到創紀錄的 33 億美元，淨承保保費增長了 8.7%，達到創紀錄的 28 億美元。除專業責任和工人賠償外，保險部門的所有業務均有所增長，而財產再保險則在再保險和單一保險超額部分有所增長。

Stockholders' equity remained strong at almost $6.9 billion after returning more than $320 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter. We repurchased almost 5.1 million shares for $292.5 million at an average price per share in the quarter of $57.79. In addition, we paid regular dividends of $28.3 million. The combination of these capital-related actions for the first quarter including the special dividend translates to $614.5 million returned to investors on a year-to-date basis or 9.1% of the beginning of year stockholders' equity.

在本季度向股東返還超過 3.2 億美元的資本後，股東權益仍然保持在近 69 億美元的強勁水平。我們以 2.925 億美元的價格回購了近 510 萬股股票，本季度每股平均價格為 57.79 美元。此外，我們還支付了 2830 萬美元的定期股息。第一季度這些與資本相關的行動（包括特別股息）總計相當於年初至今向投資者返還 6.145 億美元，佔年初股東權益的 9.1%。

Rob, I'll turn it back to you. Thanks.

羅布，我會把它還給你。謝謝。

Rich, thank you very much. Very helpful. So look, I think the market continues to not operate in any type of lockstep where major lines, as we've discussed in the past, continue to somewhat march to the beat of their own drum. In addition to that, we continue to see the marketplace struggling with trying to strike the balance between rate need and keeping up with loss cost trend, on the other hand, a desire to grow.

豐富，非常感謝你。很有幫助。因此，我認為市場仍然不會以任何類型的同步運行，正如我們過去討論的那樣，主要線路繼續按自己的節奏前進。除此之外，我們繼續看到市場努力在費率需求和跟上損失成本趨勢之間取得平衡，另一方面，又渴望增長。

This is an industry where you can, practically speaking, grow as quickly as you want to. It really becomes a much more challenging exercise, though, when you were looking to achieve a certain loss ratio which will deliver a return that is acceptable in the end. For us, rate adequacy to support a reasonable loss ratio and deliver an acceptable return has, is and will remain a priority for us. I believe that this has been demonstrated over time through our results and, obviously, our continued focus on making sure that we are keeping up with trend comfortably.

實際上，這是一個你可以隨心所欲地發展的行業。然而，當您希望達到一定的損失率並最終獲得可接受的回報時，這確實成為一項更具挑戰性的工作。對我們來說，利率充足以支持合理的損失率並提供可接受的回報已經、現在和將來仍然是我們的首要任務。我相信，隨著時間的推移，我們的業績已經證明了這一點，顯然，我們持續關注確保我們輕鬆跟上趨勢。

A couple of soundbites on the marketplace and major product lines. And I would hope it will dovetail in with some of Rich's comments and where we have been growing and parts of the marketplace that we find less attractive and we're playing a bit more defense. For starters, speaking of defense, I think public D&O within the professional line space is clearly a place that one needs to pause and tread carefully. We are seeing the pricing erode at a very rapid pace. Clearly, there has been good margin in the business, but that seems to be whittling away quite quickly.

關於市場和主要產品線的一些摘要。我希望它能與里奇的一些評論、我們一直在增長的領域以及我們發現吸引力不那麼大的市場部分相吻合，我們正在採取更多的防禦措施。首先，說到防守，我認為專業領域內的公共 D&O 顯然是一個需要暫停並小心行事的地方。我們看到價格正在以非常快的速度下降。顯然，該業務的利潤率很高，但似乎很快就會消失。

As far as liability lines and maybe under the umbrella of social inflation, we continue, particularly in the auto space or especially commercial auto, to see great challenge. That's also spilling over into GL and, ultimately, umbrella. And what I mean by that is the plaintiffs' bar is very aggressive, and they are taking a variety of new tactics. We think that we are able to keep up with it appropriately through terms, conditions, attachment points and, of course, pricing. But it is not lost on us that it is a challenging moment and requires one pay close attention. In addition to that, there is growing evidence that the tail associated with some of these product lines maybe extending a little bit, particularly on the claims -- excuse me, on the occurrence front, and to a certain extent, on certain aspects of the claims made upfront.

就責任限額而言，也許在社會通貨膨脹的保護下，我們繼續看到巨大的挑戰，特別是在汽車領域或特別是商用汽車領域。這也影響到了 GL，並最終影響到保護傘。我的意思是，原告的律師事務所非常激進，他們正在採取各種新策略。我們認為我們能夠通過條款、條件、附著點，當然還有定價來適當地跟上它。但我們並沒有忘記，這是一個充滿挑戰的時刻，需要我們密切關注。除此之外，越來越多的證據表明，與其中一些產品線相關的尾部可能會延長一點，特別是在索賠方面——對不起，在事件發生方面，在某種程度上，在預先提出的索賠的某些方面。

Property, I think it has finally come into focus what needed to happen as it relates to cat-exposed properties, and that seems to be spilling over into the non-cat or risk property account where additional rate is required. The other piece that's worth mentioning, at least through, in my opinion, is Tier 2 cat, which I would define as severe convective storm, wildfire, winter storm, et cetera. These are things that were a bit of an afterthought. And I think after the past several years, they are becoming much more front of mind.

財產，我認為它終於成為人們關注的焦點，因為它與貓暴露的財產有關，並且這似乎蔓延到需要額外利率的非貓或風險財產賬戶。另一件值得一提的，至少在我看來，是二級貓，我將其定義為強對流風暴、野火、冬季風暴等。這些都是事後才想到的事情。我認為在過去的幾年裡，它們變得越來越受人們關注。

Last comment as it relates to market conditions would be workers' compensation, certainly a topic we have discussed on these calls in the past. There was a period of time during COVID, where clearly, there was a break that was caught on the frequency front for the industry. Frequency has returned to a more traditional norm, but one of the things that we've been waiting for, and we're starting to finally see rear its head is medical inflation. It is our expectation that you are going to see more medical inflation coming through to all payers, including the workers' comp space. And as a reminder, slightly over 50% of every claims dollar associated with workers' compensation stems from medical. So again, we can get into more details on that to the extent people are interested later on.

最後一個與市場狀況相關的評論將是工人賠償，這當然是我們過去在這些電話中討論過的話題。在新冠疫情期間的一段時間內，行業的頻率顯然出現了突破。頻率已經恢復到更傳統的常態，但我們一直在等待的事情之一，我們終於開始看到它的出現，那就是醫療通脹。我們預計，您將看到更多的醫療通脹影響到所有付款人，包括工人的補償空間。提醒一下，與工人賠償相關的每筆索賠金額中，略高於 50% 的金額來自醫療。因此，我們可以在以後人們感興趣的範圍內詳細了解這一點。

Last comment on the marketplace. There continues to be this bifurcation between where the standard market, particularly national carriers, have an appetite. They seem to be very aggressive. But where they don't have an appetite, that is creating great opportunity for the specialty, in particular, the E&S space. The submission flow that we continue to see remains robust, and we are very encouraged with what the balance of the year likely holds and beyond. And certainly, the early returns on July are positive.

市場上的最後評論。標準市場（尤其是國家運營商）的需求之間仍然存在分歧。他們似乎很有攻擊性。但如果他們沒有興趣，那就為專業領域，特別是 E&S 領域創造了巨大的機會。我們繼續看到的提交流程仍然強勁，我們對今年剩餘時間及以後可能保持的情況感到非常鼓舞。當然，七月份的早期回報是積極的。

Rich talked about the top line. Obviously, we benefited from the rate increases that we continue to get, the ex comp rate increase during the quarter was 8.2%, which was reasonably consistent with what we saw earlier this year. I think the loss ratio demonstrates, yet again, our strategy around how we manage exposure, how we have balance in the portfolio and how we think about risk and return. And certainly volatility is folded into that and, in our opinion, is a key component in building book value. As far as the expenses go, Rich touched on that as well. We remain very focused on making sure we're thoughtful about the dollars that we spend, and there's nothing that leads us to believe that, that number won't remain comfortably below 30.

里奇談到了頂線。顯然，我們受益於我們持續獲得的利率上漲，本季度的稅前成本增長率為 8.2%，這與我們今年早些時候看到的情況相當一致。我認為損失率再次表明了我們如何管理風險敞口、如何保持投資組合平衡以及如何看待風險和回報的策略。當然，波動性也被納入其中，我們認為，波動性是構建賬面價值的關鍵組成部分。至於費用，里奇也談到了這一點。我們仍然非常專注於確保我們對所花費的美元深思熟慮，並且沒有任何理由讓我們相信，這個數字不會輕鬆地保持在 30 以下。

And pivoting over to the investment portfolio, we remain -- we continue, I should say, excuse me, to be rewarded for the position that we took as it relates to duration. Obviously, as we've discussed in the past, we benefited in having less of an adverse impact on our book value as rates moved up. And in addition to that, we were able to put money to work at higher rates more quickly than many of our peers. The new money rate in the quarter was probably around 5.25%-plus, and as you would gather, relative to the book yield at 4.2%, that would suggest we still have significant upside, and that will come into focus over some period of time. Rich mentioned the duration at 2.3, I think it was at 2.4 last quarter. Just to clarify that, that was really as much as anything, just rounding. That having been said, we are paying close attention, as you would expect, for the window of opportunity; and when it presents itself, likely you'll see that duration start to push out again.

轉向投資組合，我們仍然——我應該說，對不起，我們繼續因為我們所採取的與久期相關的立場而獲得回報。顯然，正如我們過去所討論的那樣，隨著利率上升，我們的賬面價值受到的不利影響較小，因此我們受益匪淺。除此之外，我們能夠比許多同行更快地以更高的速度投入資金。本季度的新貨幣利率可能約為 5.25% 以上，正如您所了解的那樣，相對於 4.2% 的賬面收益率，這表明我們仍然有顯著的上漲空間，這將在一段時間內成為人們關注的焦點。 Rich提到持續時間是2.3，我認為上個季度是2.4。只是為了澄清這一點，這實際上與任何東西一樣多，只是四捨五入。話雖如此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們正在密切關注機會之窗；當它出現時，您可能會看到持續時間再次開始延長。

So all things being equal, I think a very solid quarter for us on virtually every front. I think when you take into account the cat activity that the industry faced, we fared particularly well. And in spite of that, our ability to generate a 21% return, I think, is really a great positive and a tribute to our colleagues and to our strategy and how effectively they are executing. When the day is all done, the goal of the exercise is to build book value. There is no question that is the goal. Ultimately, it's when building book value, it is not just about the steps you take forward. It is also about the steps you take -- that you avoid taking backwards.

因此，在所有條件相同的情況下，我認為我們幾乎在各個方面都度過了一個非常穩定的季度。我認為，當你考慮到該行業面臨的貓活動時，我們的表現尤其好。儘管如此，我認為我們能夠產生 21% 的回報率確實是一個巨大的積極因素，也是對我們的同事、我們的戰略以及他們執行效率的致敬。當這一天結束後，練習的目標是建立賬面價值。毫無疑問，這就是目標。最終，重要的是建立賬面價值，而不僅僅是你所採取的步驟。這也與你採取的步驟有關——避免倒退。

So with that, Breanna, we'd be very pleased to open it up for questions. Thank you.

因此，Breanna，我們很樂意開放提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, Rob, is on the underlying combined ratio, the 87.6% in the quarter. I was just curious if there was anything one-off in that number. I know the last couple of quarters, we've seen some elevated non-cat fire losses that you guys have called out. Was there -- were there any similar losses in the quarter or anything within that 87.6% we think about the level of margin we could see in the balance of the year?

Rob，我的第一個問題是關於基本綜合成本率，即本季度的 87.6%。我只是好奇這個數字中是否有任何一次性的東西。我知道在過去的幾個季度裡，我們已經看到一些非貓火損失的增加，你們已經指出了這一點。本季度是否有任何類似的損失，或者我們認為在今年剩餘時間中可以看到的利潤水平在 87.6% 範圍內是否有任何類似的損失？

That pig is still making its way through the python. I don't have a specific number for how much it contributed, but it is reducing, if you will, but it did play a role. I think the other piece is just general mix as well in the portfolio. As you can see, it shifts a little bit every day as far as the underwriting portfolio. But yes, there was a little bit of non-cat property in there, but it is diminishing.

那頭豬仍在蟒蛇中掙扎。我沒有具體數字說明它貢獻了多少，但如果你願意的話，它正在減少，但它確實發揮了作用。我認為另一件作品也只是組合中的一般組合。正如您所看到的，就承保投資組合而言，它每天都會發生一點變化。但是，是的，那裡有一點非貓的財產，但它正在減少。

And then in terms of the mix, right? So your rate ex comp in the quarter was 8.2, right? We can call that stable with the 8.3 last quarter. And I would have thought, like given we've heard of a lot of strength within property in the quarter that you might have seen the rates move up a little bit. Is that just a function of mix?

然後就混合而言，對吧？那麼您本季度的稅前補償率為 8.2，對嗎？上個季度的 8.3 可以說是穩定的。我本以為，鑑於我們聽說本季度房地產業表現強勁，您可能會看到利率略有上升。這只是混合的函數嗎？

Yes. I think it's a function of mix. And certainly, we are benefiting as much as anyone on the property front. At the same time, there are clearly challenges for workers' compensation. And you can see that and, quite frankly, how much we are growing or not there. And on the professional liability side, as Rich flagged as well, D&O is very competitive. So the number that we give you is an aggregate, obviously, but I can promise you that we are getting good traction on the property front. And the more cat exposed it is, the more traction we are getting, and it's significant.

是的。我認為這是混合的函數。當然，我們與房地產領域的任何人一樣受益。與此同時，工人的賠償也面臨著明顯的挑戰。你可以看到這一點，坦率地說，我們可以看到我們的增長或沒有增長。在職業責任方面，正如 Rich 所指出的那樣，D&O 非常有競爭力。因此，顯然，我們給您的數字是一個總數，但我可以向您保證，我們在房地產方面取得了良好的進展。暴露的貓越多，我們獲得的牽引力就越大，這很重要。

And then one last one. The PYD, you guys said was favorable $3 million. I know you guys typically wait for the Q to give insurance versus reinsurance. But could you give us a sense of the magnitude in one segment versus the other?

然後是最後一張。 PYD，你們說優惠了 300 萬美元。我知道你們通常會等待 Q 來提供保險與再保險。但您能否讓我們了解一個細分市場相對於其他細分市場的規模？

Honestly, relative to the reserve position in both, it was de minimis. I think one -- I don't have the number exactly in front of me, but one was a little bit positive and one was a little, I think, modestly negative, if [bad].

老實說，相對於兩者的儲備位置來說，這是微不足道的。我認為有一個——我沒有確切的數字在我面前，但一個是有點積極，一個是有點消極，我認為，如果[壞]。

Your next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

First one I had is on the reserve sort of a follow-up on the PYD question. In your commentary, you mentioned occurrence and the tail potential yet extended. You mentioned plaintiffs' bar and medical inflation and so forth. I mean I would think all of these things would potentially put pressure on some of those reserves. Can you talk about why you didn't feel like you needed to make adjustments, sort of confidence in those reserves despite some of those headwinds that you see?

我的第一個問題是對 PYD 問題的後續跟進。在您的評論中，您提到了事件的發生和尚未延長的尾部潛力。你提到了原告律師資格和醫療通脹等等。我的意思是，我認為所有這些事情都可能會給其中一些儲備帶來壓力。你能談談為什麼你不覺得自己需要做出調整，儘管你看到了一些阻力，但對這些儲備有信心嗎？

The answer is because a lot of what you -- I was referencing and you just referenced are things that we have been anticipating. And when people have been asking us, why aren't you dropping your current accident year? Why aren't you dropping your loss ratios? Because there's a lot of uncertainty out there. So we feel very comfortable about where we sit at this stage. We revisit and look at our loss ratios by product line at a very granular level with some regularity, that being every 90 days. And we think we are in a good place to be able to absorb what we are seeing.

答案是因為你——我引用的和你剛剛引用的很多內容都是我們一直在期待的。當人們問我們時，你們為什麼不放棄當前的事故年份？為什麼你不降低損失率？因為那裡有很多不確定性。因此，我們對現階段的處境感到非常滿意。我們會定期（每 90 天）重新審視並查看按產品線劃分的非常細粒度的損失率。我們認為我們處於一個很好的位置，能夠吸收我們所看到的一切。

Got it. And then a follow-up, maybe just a high-level question on excess and surplus versus standard lines. I know in the past you've talked about standard lines and a lot of things going over. I mean we're certainly hearing about it in personal lines. I mean can you help us think through that end and just how that's been going in the last quarter and where you're seeing opportunities?

知道了。然後是後續行動，也許只是關於超額和盈餘與標準線的高級問題。我知道您過去曾談論過標準線和很多正在發生的事情。我的意思是，我們確實在個人方面聽到過這件事。我的意思是，您能否幫助我們思考一下這個問題，以及上個季度的進展情況以及您在哪裡看到了機會？

Our E&S businesses, their submission flow is very robust. And again, we are -- there's nothing that leads us to believe that the market, by and large, and the lines that I talked about is softening in any capacity. There's a lot of momentum out there not just in the property, but in the liability, including pockets of professional. That's why I called out D&O, in particular, because that is a particularly challenged line. That's why I called out workers' comp. It has been very competitive for an extended period of time. But much of the rest of what we do, we are seeing very strong submission flow.

我們的 E&S 業務的提交流程非常強勁。再說一次，我們沒有任何理由相信市場總體上以及我談到的路線正在以任何方式軟化。不僅在財產方面，而且在負債方面都有很大的動力，包括專業人士的口袋。這就是為什麼我特別強調 D&O，因為這是一條特別具有挑戰性的路線。這就是為什麼我呼籲工人補償。長期以來，它的競爭非常激烈。但在我們所做的其餘大部分工作中，我們看到了非常強勁的提交流程。

Your next question comes from Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Mike Zaremski。

A follow-up on the question from Elyse in your comments about maybe about some non-cat property losses, and you, Rob, used that comment, the metaphor about the pig through the python. So are you saying that some current year property losses led into the underlying -- this -- from last quarter to this quarter? Because I thought you used that term when we're talking about kind of a reserve tail.

Elyse 在你的評論中提出的問題的後續，可能是關於一些非貓財產損失，你，羅布，使用了這個評論，通過蟒蛇來比喻豬。那麼您是說，從上個季度到本季度，今年的一些財產損失導致了潛在的損失？因為我認為當我們談論某種儲備尾部時，您使用了這個術語。

No. What I'm talking about is that during the quarter, there was some non-cat property losses that contributed to the loss ratio. That is what I'm referring to. That is less elevated than what we've seen over the past couple of quarters, but more elevated than what we've seen historically. And the actions that we are taking, we believe, are taking hold, but it takes a little bit of time for that to work through the book in its entirety.

不。我所說的是，在本季度，一些非巨災財產損失導致了損失率。這就是我指的。這比我們過去幾個季度看到的要低，但比我們歷史上看到的要高。我們相信，我們正在採取的行動正在發揮作用，但需要一點時間才能讓這本書完整地發揮作用。

Okay. Okay. Good. And so that makes sense. And just curious, lots of your competitors call out and helps us -- tell us non-cat property was 2 points higher or 2 points less than expected. But Berkley has a smaller property book than some of those competitors. So just curious, are non-cat property losses, is that many -- is that 10 points of your loss ratio? Or are we talking kind of normal, it would be a [low active number of points] from the loss ratio?

好的。好的。好的。所以這是有道理的。只是出於好奇，您的許多競爭對手都大聲疾呼並幫助我們 - 告訴我們非貓財產比預期高 2 點或低 2 點。但伯克利的房產規模比一些競爭對手要小。所以我很好奇，非貓財產損失是不是有那麼多——你的損失率是 10 個百分點嗎？或者我們說的是正常情況，從損失率來看，這將是[低活躍點數]？

No. Property is not a huge part of our book, and no, it would not be anything approaching what you -- the number that you were referring to.

不。財產並不是我們書中的重要組成部分，不，它不會是任何接近你所指的數字的東西。

Okay. And a follow-up on -- you made some interesting comments on some growing evidence that the tail is elongating on occurrence, but maybe also at claims made. Just curious if you can elaborate because when we look at -- I thought last time we looked at your -- the statutory pay to incurred loss ratios, we couldn't see that. And I also noticed you didn't give us an update, I don't know if you want to, on just how paid-to-incurred loss ratios are trending for you all.

好的。後續——你對一些越來越多的證據做出了一些有趣的評論，這些證據表明尾巴在發生時會拉長，但也許也在所提出的聲明中。只是好奇您能否詳細說明，因為當我們查看（我想上次我們查看您的）法定支付與已發生損失的比率時，我們看不到這一點。我還注意到你們沒有向我們提供最新情況，我不知道你們是否願意，關於你們所有人的支付與發生損失比率的趨勢。

So as far as what we're seeing coming through, it was really more of a comment as far as the tail elongating based on discussions that we're having with our colleagues on the claims front and what they are seeing. So are we going to start to see it in the data? Yes. But one of the things that we try and do is not just wait to see it in the traditional actuarial data, but we're visiting with colleagues trying to understand what are they seeing very much on the front lines because that's the leading indicator as to what to expect.

因此，就我們所看到的情況而言，這實際上更多的是基於我們與索賠方面的同事進行的討論以及他們所看到的情況而對尾巴拉長的評論。那麼我們會開始在數據中看到它嗎？是的。但我們嘗試做的事情之一不僅僅是等待在傳統的精算數據中看到它，而且我們正在拜訪同事，試圖了解他們在前線看到的情況，因為這是關於預期結果的領先指標。

I think the plaintiffs' bar is as aggressive as ever. And oftentimes, what they are trying to do is wait till the eleventh hour and then put forth a demand and try and create a situation that is optimal for them. But when -- I think we understand what they're trying to do and we are managing through it. So do I think that this is going to be a radical sea change? No. But are we conscious of it? Yes, we are. And I do not have the loss ratio in front of me, but we will follow up with that for you, Mike.

我認為原告的律師一如既往地咄咄逼人。通常，他們想做的就是等到最後一刻，然後提出要求，並嘗試創造一個最適合他們的情況。但是當——我認為我們理解他們想要做什麼並且我們正在解決它。那麼我是否認為這將是一場徹底的變革？不。但是我們意識到這一點了嗎？是的我們是。我面前沒有損失率，但我們會為你跟進，邁克。

Okay. And I guess lastly, we've obviously -- we and others value your insights. So when you're -- you've been talking a lot about medical inflation is brewing. In the CPI data, at least, it looks like it's inching higher, but still looks a bit tame versus historic levels. Is this thesis kind of based on -- similar to what you just said about just talking with your folks on the front lines and understanding the macro and kind of you feel that there's going to be more inflation coming? Or are you actually seeing it? For example, and I'll be [quiet], Travelers commented today that the workers' comp inflation is still negative overall for them.

好的。我想最後，我們和其他人顯然非常重視您的見解。因此，當您一直在談論醫療通脹正在醞釀時。至少在消費者物價指數數據中，它看起來正在小幅走高，但與歷史水平相比仍然顯得有些溫和。這篇論文是否基於——類似於您剛才所說的與前線人員交談並了解宏觀情況以及您認為將會出現更多通脹的情況？或者你真的看到了嗎？例如，我會[安靜]，旅行者今天評論說，工人的薪酬通脹總體上對他們來說仍然是負面的。

I think the frequency trend is very attractive. I would -- I think as far as the medical trend goes, I don't believe that it's a negative, and I believe it's going to be ticking up, and that's just based on industry data that is available. I think if people choose to dig in, they will find out.

我認為頻率趨勢非常有吸引力。我認為，就醫療趨勢而言，我不認為這是負面的，而且我相信它會有所上升，而這只是基於現有的行業數據。我認為如果人們選擇深入挖掘，他們就會發現答案。

Your next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

So my first question, I just been asked a little bit -- earlier today, one of your competitors or maybe not completely a competitor, they reported a significant acceleration in the renewal price change for business written and they said it was pretty broad in their portfolio. And then, that said, 8.2% renewal price change is insignificant, but it's fairly stable with what it was last quarter. Has anything -- the mix changes over time, but would you say the market today is materially different than the market 3 months ago? Has anything you identified happening dynamically right now in the pricing of business?

所以我的第一個問題，我剛剛被問了一點——今天早些時候，你們的一個競爭對手，或者可能不完全是競爭對手，他們報告說，書面業務的續訂價格變化顯著加速，他們說，他們的投資組合相當廣泛。儘管如此，8.2% 的續訂價格變化微不足道，但與上季度相比相當穩定。隨著時間的推移，這種組合會發生變化，但您是否認為今天的市場與 3 個月前的市場有重大不同？您認為目前業務定價中是否存在動態變化的情況？

I think more people are starting to realize that they need to do something about rate. So I'm not going to comment specifically on other market participants. But whoever it is that you may be referring to, maybe they just recognize that they need more. And that's why they decided to put their foot harder down on the pedal. We had a view as to what we need and what rate adequacy is for some period of time and we feel comfortable where we were. It's consistent with where we -- what we believe we need today. So again, I think that we feel as though that we're in a pretty good place.

我認為越來越多的人開始意識到他們需要對費率採取一些措施。因此，我不會具體評論其他市場參與者。但無論你指的是誰，也許他們只是認識到自己需要更多。這就是為什麼他們決定更加用力地踩踏板。我們對一段時間內的需求和利率充足性有了自己的看法，我們對目前的情況感到滿意。這與我們今天所認為的需要是一致的。再說一遍，我認為我們感覺自己處於一個非常好的位置。

Okay. And if my model is right, I think the quarter enjoyed the most share repurchase you've done on dollar value basis anytime in 15 years. It suggests to me that you probably find the stock attractive at the current value. At the same time, this quarter, you did a 15%, 16% operating ROE in a quarter with a lot of cat losses and poor results on the investment fund portfolio, which I think is a pretty good result given the headwinds.

好的。如果我的模型正確，我認為本季度的股票回購是 15 年來以美元價值計算最多的。對我來說，這表明您可能會發現該股票以當前價值計算很有吸引力。與此同時，本季度，您的運營淨資產回報率在一個季度內達到了 15%、16%，但有大量巨額虧損，投資基金投資組合的業績也很差，考慮到逆風，我認為這是一個相當不錯的結果。

Did you say poor results in the investment portfolio?

您是說投資組合業績不佳嗎？

I mean the investment funds portfolio.

我指的是投資基金投資組合。

Okay, yes. Okay, yes. Understood.

好吧，是的。好吧，是的。明白了。

Yes. Yes. And I mean that's volatile. We know it is. But I think it's a pretty good result. What I'm saying, you have a lot of headwinds and you still had a good result.

是的。是的。我的意思是這是不穩定的。我們知道是這樣。但我認為這是一個相當不錯的結果。我的意思是，你遇到了很多阻力，但你仍然取得了不錯的結果。

Yes.

是的。

The repurchases are a choice, but they're also a cost. You could have put that $300 million into more underwriting, but you bought back the stock instead. Can you walk us through, I guess, the capital utilization model and how you think about the trade-off between the value of Berkley stock and the value of putting money to work in the 2023 insurance marketplace?

回購是一種選擇，但也是一種成本。你本可以將這 3 億美元用於更多的承銷，但你卻買回了股票。我想，您能否向我們介紹一下資本利用模型，以及您如何考慮伯克利股票價值與 2023 年保險市場投入資金的價值之間的權衡？

Yes. Sure, Josh, and thanks for the question. And if I keep it too high level, we're very happy to catch up offline. But ultimately, we look at the business today, we look at where things are going tomorrow. We want to make sure that we are well positioned from a capital perspective to have not just what we envision our need are, but plus a cushion. And when the day is all done, to the extent that we have a surplus of capital beyond what we have today, plus -- beyond what we need today plus and see we need tomorrow plus a cushion, then we're going to think about what's the most efficient way and effective way and thoughtful way to return that to the people that it belongs to, that being the shareholders.

是的。當然，喬什，謝謝你的提問。如果我保持太高的水平，我們很高興能夠在線下趕上。但最終，我們著眼於今天的業務，我們著眼於明天的發展。我們希望確保從資本角度來看，我們處於有利地位，不僅能夠滿足我們設想的需求，而且還能獲得緩衝。當這一天結束時，我們擁有的資本盈餘超出了今天的資本，加上——超出了我們今天所需要的資本，並且看到我們明天需要加上緩衝，那麼我們將考慮什麼是最有效、最有效、最周到的方式，將其返還給它所屬的人，即股東。

Obviously, there are different tools that we can use to return that capital. Part of the analysis when we think about the returning of the capital is not just what do we think the value of the business is today and what is our view on what real book value is, we also think about what the earnings power of the business is for the foreseeable future. And then we make what I believe is a thoughtful decision, with all of that and a few other things taking into account the best way to return the value to the shareholders.

顯然，我們可以使用不同的工具來返還資本。當我們考慮資本回報時，分析的一部分不僅僅是我們認為企業今天的價值是多少以及我們對實際賬面價值的看法是什麼，我們還考慮企業在可預見的未來的盈利能力。然後我們做出我認為是經過深思熟慮的決定，所有這些和其他一些事情都考慮到了向股東回報價值的最佳方式。

So that's sort of a long story short. Do I believe that we are able to continue to grow the business at a pretty healthy pace? Yes, I do. Do I believe that we're going to be able to continue to generate very healthy returns? Yes, I do. Do I think we'll be able to do that with an eye towards risk-adjusted return and do it in a consistent way? That is certainly the expectation.

所以這有點長話短說。我是否相信我們能夠繼續以相當健康的速度發展業務？是的，我願意。我相信我們能夠繼續產生非常健康的回報嗎？是的，我願意。我認為我們能夠做到這一點並著眼於風險調整後的回報並以一致的方式做到這一點嗎？這當然是我們的期望。

So if you want to get a bit more into the details, we can try and do that offline. But we are not going to just try and hold on to capital that we don't need. In addition to that, we're conscious of what the capital needs will be in the future, and we're aware of the fact that certain rating agencies are reexamining potentially what their view is going to be, and we have a view as to what that may mean for us.

因此，如果您想了解更多細節，我們可以嘗試離線進行。但我們不會僅僅試圖保留我們不需要的資本。除此之外，我們意識到未來的資本需求是什麼，我們也意識到某些評級機構正在重新審視他們的觀點，我們對這對我們意味著什麼有自己的看法。

Your next question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist 的馬克·休斯 (Mark Hughes)。

I appreciate the call. On the Reinsurance segment, your loss ratio was pretty low, hasn't been that low in a while. Is that just good experience in the quarter? Or is this maybe the impact of cumulative rate increases over the last few years?

我很感謝您的來電。在再保險領域，你們的損失率相當低，已經有一段時間沒有這麼低了。這只是本季度的良好經歷嗎？或者這可能是過去幾年累積利率上漲的影響？

I think it's a combination of both good underwriting and a job well done by many of our colleagues. And again, we also had a bit of positive development coming through there.

我認為這是良好承保和我們許多同事出色工作的結合。再說一次，我們在那裡也取得了一些積極的進展。

And then in the GL line, you had a nice acceleration sequentially back up into double-digit growth. You'd mentioned the challenges around the plaintiffs' bar and the inflation, but you seem to be enthusiastic. Any additional commentary about what you're seeing in GL?

然後在總賬線中，你有一個很好的加速，連續回到兩位數的增長。您提到了原告律師資格和通貨膨脹方面的挑戰，但您似乎很熱情。關於您在 GL 中看到的內容還有什麼其他評論嗎？

Look, we -- places that we're growing, it's because we like the opportunity. I would tell you, a meaningful amount of the growth in that product line is coming from our colleagues that are managing E&S businesses.

看，我們正在發展的地方，這是因為我們喜歡這個機會。我想告訴您，該產品線的很大一部分增長來自我們管理 E&S 業務的同事。

And then finally, the casualty re was down, presumably a judgment on your view on -- again, on the plaintiffs' bar. But is that something you'd probably likely to shy away from here in the foreseeable future?

最後，傷亡人數下降了，大概是對你對原告律師的觀點的判斷。但在可預見的將來，您可能會迴避這一點嗎？

No. It's not so much the plaintiffs' bar, though. Obviously, that's a contributor to how we think about loss cost and trend and rate adequacy. But it would seem as though the reinsurance marketplace struggles to have discipline across the board. So just as they're getting more disciplined in the property space, would seem as the professional and liability space may not have the same discipline it had yesterday.

不，不過，這並不是原告的酒吧。顯然，這影響了我們如何看待損失成本、趨勢和費率充足性。但再保險市場似乎很難全面遵守紀律。因此，正如他們在房地產領域變得更加自律一樣，專業和責任領域似乎也不像昨天那樣有同樣的自律。

Your next question comes from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

First question, just on reinsurance. The attritional loss ratio improved quite a bit there. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about either the sustainability of that or the drivers this quarter?

第一個問題，關於再保險。那裡的損耗率有了很大改善。也許您可以談談該季度的可持續性或驅動因素？

Yes. Look, we're pleased with how the business is performing, Ryan. We're not going to get into a whole lot of minutia around that. But we think that the various businesses that make up that segment have positioned themselves well and they're reaping the benefits from it. And we think that it's likely that for the foreseeable future, that we'll continue to see good performance. That having been said, as I mentioned a few moments ago, there was some positive development; and that came out of one of the operations in that segment, which was helpful.

是的。看，我們對公司的表現很滿意，瑞安。我們不會討論很多細節。但我們認為，組成該細分市場的各個企業都已經做好了自己的定位，並且正在從中受益。我們認為，在可預見的未來，我們很可能會繼續看到良好的表現。話雖如此，正如我剛才提到的，出現了一些積極的進展；這是來自該部門的一項業務，這是有幫助的。

Got it. And then I guess in the Insurance segment, just thinking about growth. Yes, it seems like some of the primary carriers are growing quite a bit more than what the level of rate increases are. And some, like you, your top line growth looks more similar to the type of rate that you're reporting. So I was wondering if maybe you could talk a little bit about, I guess, why we're not seeing something a little bit from a growth standpoint on top of the rate. Is it -- is retention lower than it was a year ago? Are you writing less new business? Just, I guess, give us a look into that.

知道了。然後我想在保險領域，只是考慮增長。是的，一些主要運營商的增長速度似乎比費率上漲的水平要高得多。有些人，比如您，您的收入增長看起來與您報告的增長率類型更相似。所以我想知道你是否可以談談，我想，為什麼我們沒有從增長率的角度看到一些東西。留存率是否低於一年前？您寫的新業務減少了嗎？我想，讓我們看看這個。

When you look at the group, we're a bit of a bouquet. And there are certain parts of this group that are growing very rapidly. So for example, many of our E&S businesses are growing at a very healthy pace, to say the least. And there are other parts of the organization that are growing as well. But we're believers in underwriting discipline. And as you can see in the release, there are parts of the business that are growing quite quickly, perhaps in keeping with your comment relative to some others. And there are parts where we're just going to be more disciplined. So you would have taken note that workers' compensation, we are concerned about how competitive that marketplace is.

當你觀察這個團隊時，你會發現我們有點像一束花。這個群體中的某些部分正在快速增長。例如，至少可以說，我們的許多 E&S 業務正在以非常健康的速度增長。該組織的其他部分也在不斷發展。但我們堅信承保紀律。正如您在新聞稿中看到的，有些業務增長得相當快，也許與您相對於其他業務的評論一致。在某些方面我們需要更加自律。因此，您可能已經註意到工人的賠償，我們擔心該市場的競爭程度。

And even with the growth in payrolls that we've seen, we are -- I would suggest in somewhat of a defensive mode. A similar story when it comes to professional liability, and we're kind of scratching our head around public D&O. If you want to talk about the reinsurance, obviously, the casualty reinsurance is down a little bit, and the monoline excess is up incrementally. So I think that -- and I can appreciate why people might look for a broader brush, but we're looking at our business and we're looking at each part of the market that we participate in with a very fine brush. And we are trying to make sure we make good decisions in every pocket.

即使我們看到了就業人數的增長，我建議我們採取某種防禦模式。在職業責任方面也有類似的情況，我們對公共 D&O 有點摸不著頭腦。如果你想談論再保險，顯然，傷亡再保險略有下降，而單險超額部分則逐漸上升。所以我認為——我可以理解為什麼人們可能會尋求更廣泛的刷子，但我們正在審視我們的業務，我們正在以非常精細的刷子審視我們參與的市場的每個部分。我們正在努力確保我們在每個方面都做出正確的決定。

And when you add up all the pieces, this is where it came out. Do I think that there is opportunity for there to be pockets of further momentum? Yes, absolutely. But I think that when push comes to shove, that's just the reality of when you put all the pieces together, this is where it came out.

當你把所有的部分加起來時，結果就是這樣。我是否認為有機會進一步發揮動力？是的，一點沒錯。但我認為，當事情到了緊要關頭，這就是現實，當你把所有的碎片放在一起時，這就是它的結果。

Got it. And then just following up, we've heard I guess, partially in response to the softer professionalized pricing market, there's been a more diverse set of players that find the cyber line attractive. Would you count yourself among that? Or has cyber been a big growth area for Berkley?

知道了。然後，我們聽說，我猜，部分是為了應對專業化定價市場的疲軟，有更多多樣化的參與者發現網絡產品線具有吸引力。你會把自己算在其中嗎？或者網絡已經成為伯克利的一個重要增長領域？

It's not a big growth area for us these days. There were moments in time where we found it to be very attractive. And then to your point, we saw a lot of people coming into the space. And again, we have the underwriting discipline that we're not going to do foolish things. So have we ever been a giant player in the space? No, we're careful and selective and we're conscious of how to manage the systemic exposure that comes along with that product line. But clearly, cyber has become a more competitive market, and we have a view as to what an accurate rate is and appropriate terms and conditions. And we will draw the line in the sand and stay on the right side of it.

如今，這對我們來說並不是一個大的增長領域。有時我們發現它非常有吸引力。然後就你的觀點而言，我們看到很多人進入這個領域。再說一次，我們有承保紀律，我們不會做愚蠢的事情。那麼我們曾經是這個領域的巨頭嗎？不，我們是謹慎和有選擇性的，我們意識到如何管理該產品線帶來的系統性風險。但顯然，網絡已經成為一個競爭更加激烈的市場，我們對準確的費率以及適當的條款和條件有自己的看法。我們將在沙子上劃下界限，並留在它的右側。

Your next question comes from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

So I had just a question on these fire losses. Just had a question just in terms of how far along we are in fixing that and specifically how many more quarters would you expect this to really have an impact on results?

所以我對這些火災損失有一個疑問。只是有一個問題，我們在解決這個問題方面走了多遠，具體來說，您預計這會對結果產生真正的影響還有多少個季度？

I think you're going to see it having a diminishing impact on results between now and the end of the year, and it will be diminishing gradually.

我認為從現在到今年年底，你會看到它對結果的影響逐漸減弱，而且會逐漸減弱。

Got it. And then I guess, I'm assuming that the shift in mix, just sort of excluding the fire losses, the shift in mix would mean that something in the neighborhood of the loss ratio ex cat, ex reserve development is somewhat of a sustainable level just given the mix shift is obviously enduring. Is that the right way to think about it?

知道了。然後我想，我假設混合的轉變，只是排除火災損失，混合的轉變意味著，考慮到混合轉變顯然是持久的，前貓、前儲備開發的損失率附近的某些東西在某種程度上是可持續的水平。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

I apologize, but I'm not sure I fully understand the question. Could we do that once more, please?

我很抱歉，但我不確定我是否完全理解這個問題。我們可以再這樣做一次嗎？

Yes. So looking at the 59.5% accident year loss ratio ex cat, you cited mix as a sign as to why one of the reasons why that was at that level and it deteriorated a bit year-over-year. Obviously, in addition to the fire losses. Is that something -- just given the mix is obviously a more sustainable change, is that something we should expect around that level for the remainder of the year?

是的。因此，看看 59.5% 的事故年損失率（前貓），您引用了混合作為一個跡象，說明為什麼這一水平處於該水平，並且逐年惡化。顯然，除了火災損失之外。這是不是——考慮到這種組合顯然是一個更可持續的變化，我們應該在今年剩餘時間裡期待這個水平嗎？

I can't answer the question with certainty, but we think that ultimately, the way the portfolio is running and our ability to deliver a 90 combined or better and then 18% or 21% return, depending on how you look at it, feels like we're in a pretty comfortable spot. Do I think that there's the opportunity for the 59 to potentially improve a little bit? Yes, I do, but we're not going to push the envelope unnecessarily and set the stage for disappointment in the future, particularly in an environment that's as complicated and volatile as this. We just don't think that's in the best interest of anyone. So we're -- in our book, at least, achieving very healthy outcomes for stakeholders while still ensuring that we are not putting undue pressure on the situation. And that's a good place to be, in our opinion.

我無法肯定地回答這個問題，但我們認為，最終，投資組合的運行方式以及我們提供 90 或更高綜合回報率以及 18% 或 21% 回報率的能力，取決於你如何看待它，感覺我們處於一個非常舒適的位置。我認為 59 有機會進一步改進嗎？是的，我願意，但我們不會不必要地挑戰極限，為未來的失望埋下伏筆，尤其是在這樣複雜多變的環境下。我們只是認為這不符合任何人的最佳利益。因此，至少在我們的書中，我們為利益相關者取得了非常健康的成果，同時仍然確保我們不會對局勢施加過度的壓力。我們認為這是一個好地方。

Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up. Obviously, not a big impact on the entire book with the $3 million of favorable reserve development. But you guys have been on top of the 2019 and prior casualty lines. Can you just talk about any changes you may have made to those lines for those years in the second quarter and how you feel about your reserving position there going forward?

知道了。然後也許只是後續行動。顯然，300萬美元的有利儲備開發對整本書影響不大。但你們一直在 2019 年及之前的傷亡人數上。您能否談談您在第二季度對這些年的這些線路所做的任何改變以及您對未來保留位置的看法？

Yes. I mean you'll see more detail when the Q comes out. And to the extent it leaves you scratching your head, we're happy to catch up offline. But I would tell you, we feel very good about where our reserves are, and we think they're well positioned to endure some of the things that we think either are ahead of the industry. And again, I think there's been a lot of chatter amongst some observers as to given all the rate we've gotten, why haven't we dropped our loss ratios more, and it's because of all the uncertainty. So when the day is all done, do I think that we're in a good place? Yes.

是的。我的意思是，當 Q 出來時你會看到更多細節。雖然這讓您摸不著頭腦，但我們很樂意在線下跟進。但我想告訴你，我們對我們的儲備狀況感到非常滿意，我們認為它們有能力承受我們認為領先於行業的一些事情。再說一次，我認為一些觀察家之間有很多爭論，考慮到我們已經得到的所有利率，為什麼我們沒有進一步降低損失率，這是因為所有的不確定性。那麼，當這一天結束時，我認為我們處於一個好的狀態嗎？是的。

When push comes to shove, if you look at the average duration of our loss reserves there, give or take, 3.5 years. So if you think about that and you think about what that probably means as far as how far along that '16 through '19 year is, those years are as far as development, I think that things are -- that would suggest things are quieting down. And of course, as far as the more recent years, we are feeling as though that they're an exceptional place.

當緊要關頭，如果你看看我們損失準備金的平均期限，或多或少，是 3.5 年。因此，如果你考慮一下這一點，並考慮一下這可能意味著什麼，從 16 到 19 年，這些年的發展程度，我認為，這表明事情正在平靜下來。當然，就最近幾年而言，我們感覺它們是一個特殊的地方。

Got it. And then maybe if I could just sneak one more in, just on that last point, the more recent years. I know you had mentioned on the last call that you guys have been measured in terms of how quickly you recognize the progress from 2020 onwards and that could have implications for how you think about loss picks as you make your way through 2023 and into next year. Have you updated this view at all? This most recent quarter, just thinking about some of the comments you made about lengthening tails on occurrence and [claims-made form].

知道了。然後也許我可以再偷偷地講一下，就在最後一點上，最近幾年。我知道你們在上次電話會議中提到，你們對 2020 年以來進展的認識速度是衡量你們的標準，這可能會對你們在 2023 年和明年如何看待損失選擇產生影響。您更新過此視圖嗎？在最近一個季度，只需考慮一下您對延長事件尾部和[索賠表格]所做的一些評論。

Obviously, the tail comment has applicability in different ways to different product lines. I think some of the comments, if I recall correctly, and maybe I'm mistaken, that you may be referring to would stem from policies that are written on a claims-made form. And when you write on a claims-made form and there is no notice, then that chapter is closed. So putting that aside, to the extent that you do have a notice or you have an occurrence form, then you need to spend some time thinking about how do I think about that tail extending or not. So we, as you would expect, bifurcate the book as we examine it in a variety of different ways and look at it at a very granular level. But I think perhaps what I was just referring to may touch on what you had been raising.

顯然，尾部註釋對於不同的產品線有不同的適用性。我認為，如果我沒記錯的話，也許我是錯的，您可能提到的一些評論將源於寫在索賠表格上的保單。當您在索賠表格上填寫並且沒有任何通知時，該章節就結束了。所以拋開這一點，如果你確實有一個通知或者你有一個發生形式，那麼你需要花一些時間思考我如何看待尾巴的延伸或不延伸。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們將這本書分成兩部分，以各種不同的方式對其進行檢查，並在非常細粒度的層面上進行研究。但我想也許我剛才提到的內容可能會觸及你一直提出的問題。

Your next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

If we could look at the insurance underlying loss ratio, I think you said that the impact of the non-cat fire losses has diminished a bit year-over-year -- or quarter-over-quarter, sorry. And I think that the overall year-over-year result was greater deterioration than what we had seen in the prior 2 quarters. So I guess what else is driving that today? Is it that you have fewer favorable offsets relative to previous quarters? Is it mix? Why are we seeing that?

如果我們可以看看保險的基本損失率，我想您說過，非貓火損失的影響同比或季度環比有所減弱，抱歉。我認為總體同比結果比我們在前兩個季度看到的情況惡化得更大。所以我想今天還有什麼推動因素呢？與前幾個季度相比，您的有利抵消是否較少？是混合的嗎？為什麼我們會看到這個？

Putting aside the property piece, to your point, I would say the leading contributor to the question you're raising is mix of business: different product lines, say, different loss ratio picks.

拋開財產部分，就您的觀點而言，我想說您提出的問題的主要貢獻者是業務組合：不同的產品線，例如不同的損失率選擇。

Okay. But I guess on that front, it seems like you are growing the short tail lines faster than most of the other businesses I would have thought those may have a lower loss ratio, underlying loss ratio. Or am I not thinking about that correctly?

好的。但我想在這方面，你的短尾線增長速度似乎比大多數其他企業更快，我本以為這些企業的損失率、潛在損失率可能較低。或者我沒有正確思考這一點？

Some of them do and some of them are -- hold on, I'm just pulling out a couple of papers. Why don't we, as opposed to me fumbling through our papers, why don't we catch up offline?

有些人這樣做，有些人——等一下，我只是拿出幾張紙。為什麼我們不，而不是我摸索著我們的文件，我們為什麼不在線下趕上呢？

Okay. Fair enough. And then I'll admit I'm intrigued by your comment, and I think it's not the first time you've made it about the kind of the but-for approach that the industry has with regards to cat losses. I am curious if we look at the underlying combined ratio that the company reported, the 87.6%, what would that be without the cat-exposed net premiums earned?

好的。很公平。然後我承認我對你的評論很感興趣，而且我認為這不是你第一次提出該行業在貓損失方面採取的“但是”方法。我很好奇，如果我們看一下該公司報告的基本綜合成本率（87.6%），如果沒有貓險淨保費收入，那會是多少？

If we backed out? I'm not sure I understand the question, sorry. What would the 87 be without what?

如果我們退出呢？我不確定我是否理解這個問題，抱歉。如果沒有什麼，87 會是什麼樣子？

So I think in your opening comments, you said the industry uses but-for approach and removes catastrophes, but doesn't take out the catastrophe-related premiums.

因此，我認為在您的開場白中，您說過該行業使用“但是-為了”方法並消除了災難，但沒有扣除與災難相關的保費。

Right.

正確的。

So what would that be -- what would the 87.6% be for Berkley this quarter if we made that adjustment?

那麼，如果我們進行調整，伯克利本季度的 87.6% 會是多少？

Well, we don't really spend a lot of time doing that because we don't fool ourselves that cat losses don't count.

好吧，我們並沒有真正花很多時間來做這件事，因為我們不會欺騙自己，認為貓的損失不算數。

Your next question comes from Brian Meredith with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩·梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

So Rob, just curious, property reinsurance, huge growth in the quarter. Is that you all leaning into the cat reinsurance market? Or is there something else going on there?

所以羅布只是好奇，財產再保險在本季度出現了巨大的增長。你們都傾向於貓再保險市場嗎？或者還有其他事情發生嗎？

That is us seeing opportunity in the property reinsurance marketplace. Certainly, cat is a meaningful component of that. And while it's not -- having an overwhelming impact on the group overall, it's certainly a window of opportunity that we're going from a toe in the water to maybe a foot plus in the water. So the short answer is yes.

這就是我們在財產再保險市場中看到的機會。當然，貓是其中一個有意義的組成部分。雖然它對整個團隊沒有產生壓倒性的影響，但它確實是一個機會之窗，我們可以從水中的腳趾變成水中的一英尺多。所以簡短的回答是肯定的。

Good. That's helpful. Second question, I'm just curious, Rob, you talked a little bit about pricing. You talked about D&O being challenging and some pressures you're seeing in commercial auto. I wonder if you can kind of bifurcate a little bit in what you're seeing kind of large commercial and then as you work your way down middle and small. Is it more competitive kind of in the excess liability for larger companies? And as you get down less, any differentiation?

好的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，我只是好奇，羅布，你談到了一些關於定價的問題。您談到了 D&O 的挑戰以及您在商用汽車中看到的一些壓力。我想知道你是否可以在你看到的大型廣告中稍微分成一點，然後在你的中型和小型廣告中進行處理。對於大公司來說，超額負債是否更具競爭力？當你下降得更少時，有什麼區別嗎？

As far as the liability lines, the larger the account, by and large, the more competitive it is at this stage, and that -- and there's our benefit because by and large, we are a small and middle market player compared to many of our peers. But yes, clearly, there is growing competition -- or is more visible with larger accounts.

就負債額度而言，賬戶越大，現階段的競爭力就越大，這也是我們的優勢，因為總的來說，與許多同行相比，我們是中小型市場參與者。但是，是的，很明顯，競爭正在加劇——或者說，隨著賬戶規模的擴大，競爭更加明顯。

Got you. And I'll just throw one more in here. I'm wondering if maybe you can characterize your primary commercial property book. When you write commercial properties, is that cat-exposed stuff? Is that regular homeowners? What exactly are we looking at when you're seeing that growth in your commercial property book?

明白你了。我會再放一個進去。我想知道您是否可以描述一下您的主要商業地產書籍。當你寫商業地產時，那是貓暴露的東西嗎？是普通房主嗎？當您看到商業地產賬簿中的增長時，我們到底在關注什麼？

So in the commercial property book, it's a combination of a variety of different things. Certainly, there's a piece of that in there that's associated with Berkley One because probably we'll be splitting that out as that grows. In addition to that, we certainly write a bit of property that is cat exposed on the commercial line side. And -- but much of it is not a Tier 1, if you will, cat-exposed property.

所以在商業地產書中，它是各種不同事物的組合。當然，其中有一部分與伯克利一號有關，因為隨著它的增長，我們可能會將其分開。除此之外，我們當然還寫了一些暴露在商業線路方面的屬性。而且——但如果你願意的話，其中大部分都不是第一級暴露於貓的財產。

Your next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

A couple of really quick questions, I think. You talked about medical inflation, but if I understood your comments correctly, that seemed to be mostly emerging in workers' compensation. And I was wondering whether you're seeing the same sort of pickup in medical costs in, I don't know, commercial auto or medical malpractice?

我想有幾個非常簡單的問題。您談到醫療通脹，但如果我正確理解您的評論，這似乎主要出現在工人賠償中。我想知道，我不知道，商用汽車或醫療事故中的醫療費用是否也會出現同樣的上升？

So it is -- as far as medical malpractice, I would separate that as to -- that's a different issue. But as far as the medical costs go, as far as what is the Band-Aid cost today versus what does it cost yesterday for an injured worker, our expectation is that, that is clearly on the rise. Are you going to see it in other product lines? Yes, but to a much lesser extent because when you think about a claims dollar, medical plays a far more significant role with workers' comp than any other product line that we're in.

所以，就醫療事故而言，我會將其分開，這是一個不同的問題。但就醫療費用而言，就今天的創可貼費用與昨天受傷工人的費用而言，我們的預期是，這顯然在上升。您會在其他產品線中看到它嗎？是的，但程度要小得多，因為當你考慮索賠金額時，醫療對工人補償的影響比我們從事的任何其他產品線都要重要得多。

Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. And then early on, I guess, in Richard's comments, you talked about -- well, I guess, I don't know if it's his or your commentary, actually, but the expense ratio [sit] comfortably below 30. Was there any in the quarter's expense ratio that benefited it? Basically, the premise of the question is that comfortably below 30 doesn't even seem to be that high of a hurdle to achieve.

好的。完美的。這很有幫助。然後早些時候，我想，在理查德的評論中，你談到了——好吧，我想，我不知道實際上這是他的還是你的評論，但費用比率[坐]舒適地低於30。本季度的費用比率是否有任何受益？基本上，這個問題的前提是，舒適地低於 30 似乎並不是一個很難實現的障礙。

I think we're just trying to give people guidance for the long run. And ultimately, our expense ratio can, at any moment in time, be adversely impacted by investments that we are making, whether that be in technology or whether that be in a new business that we are starting that's early on or in its infancy. So I think we're just trying to give people guidance as to what they should be expecting going forward longer term.

我認為我們只是想為人們提供長期指導。最終，我們的費用率可能在任何時候受到我們正在進行的投資的不利影響，無論是在技術領域還是在我們剛剛開始或處於起步階段的新業務中。因此，我認為我們只是試圖為人們提供指導，讓他們了解未來的長期發展。

Okay. Fair enough. And then one final question, if I can. I know it's really early in the third quarter, but there's been a school of thought out there that maybe once we went through a full year of professional liability rate decreases that they would calm down. Based on your comments, it doesn't seem like you're seeing that...

好的。很公平。最後一個問題，如果可以的話。我知道現在還處於第三季度初期，但有一種觀點認為，也許一旦我們經歷了一整年的職業責任率下降，他們就會平靜下來。根據您的評論，您似乎沒有看到...

Are we talking specifically about -- are you referring to the public D&O?

我們是在具體談論——您指的是公共 D&O 嗎？

Absolutely, yes.

絕對沒錯。

Yes. There's nothing that we're seeing as of now that would suggest that it's bottoming out, or let alone, pivoting.

是的。到目前為止，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明它正在觸底，更不用說正在發生轉變。

Your next question comes from Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Scott Heleniak。

The first question I had was just on the investment funds. You had a loss there in the quarter. And I'm just curious if you have changed any allocations there? Or just any kind of update on what's going on there in the strategy for that -- for the second half of the year and into 2024, if there's any change in that thinking.

我的第一個問題是關於投資基金的。你在這個季度有虧損。我只是好奇你是否改變了那裡的分配？或者只是關於今年下半年和 2024 年戰略中正在發生的事情的任何更新，如果這種想法有任何改變的話。

Yes. Look, the -- just to qualify that a little bit, certainly, we weren't happy with the performance, but the loss was about $1 million or so. And what is driving that? It was primarily a participation in some alternative investments or private equity specifically, where there were some marks that they took down on some investments and then that trickled through to us. How do we see that unfolding from here? We'll let you know. But at this stage, I think that we're comfortable that people are taking the action that they need to take to make sure that those funds are appropriately marked, but we're dependent on getting that information from the managers.

是的。看，--只是為了證明這一點，當然，我們對錶現不滿意，但損失約為 100 萬美元左右。是什麼推動了這一點？這主要是參與一些另類投資或私募股權，特別是他們在一些投資上留下了一些標記，然後這些標記滲透到了我們身上。我們如何看待這一切的發展？我們會讓您知道。但在現階段，我認為人們正在採取他們需要採取的行動來確保這些基金得到適當標記，我們對此感到放心，但我們依賴於從管理者那裡獲取這些信息。

Okay. Were those marks significant then for the quarter for the alts? Is there a number that you had on there?

好的。對於本季度的替代品來說，這些分數是否重要？你那裡有號碼嗎？

You can follow up with Rich or Karen for the specifics, but it was enough to take what's been a reasonably healthy run rate and bring it down to essentially zero.

您可以向 Rich 或 Karen 詢問具體細節，但這足以將相當健康的運行率降低到基本為零。

Yes. Okay. Got you. And then just one more question. You mentioned there'll be a window of opportunity to deploy capital into higher-yielding securities in your durations at 2.3 years now, and I'm just wondering if we might be getting close to that window of opportunity and how you see that playing out as well.

是的。好的。明白你了。然後還有一個問題。您提到現在有一個機會之窗，可以在 2.3 年的期限內將資金配置到高收益證券中，我只是想知道我們是否可能接近這個機會之窗，以及您如何看待這個機會之窗。

It's certainly our hope and we're waiting for that to occur. And yes, we think it's coming, but it may take some time. And ultimately, as in everything we do, we're focused not just on risk-adjusted return, but we're not going to -- in an effort to -- we're not going to compromise, if you will, in a foolish way. And again, we are eagerly looking for the opportunity to allow us to extend that duration out a little bit. But right now, we are getting reasonably well rewarded for the position that we've taken.

這當然是我們的希望，我們正在等待它的發生。是的，我們認為它即將到來，但可能需要一些時間。最終，就像我們所做的一切一樣，我們不僅關注風險調整後的回報，而且我們不會——努力——我們不會以愚蠢的方式妥協，如果你願意的話。再次，我們熱切地尋找機會將這一期限延長一點。但現在，我們所採取的立場得到了相當豐厚的回報。

Your next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

I'll give one more question, but I don't know if I can get a great answer. Can we talk about share repurchases versus special dividends and how you think about the value of doing both those things?

我會再提一個問題，但我不知道是否能得到一個很好的答案。我們可以談談股票回購與特別股息以及您如何看待這兩項事情的價值嗎？

Josh, I think that was a pretty good prediction on your part as to the quality of the answer, at least that you'd get from me. But why don't I hand it over to our Chairman, who also moonlight as our Head of repurchase.

喬希，我認為對於你的答案質量來說這是一個非常好的預測，至少你會從我這裡得到。但我為什麼不把它交給我們的董事長，他同時兼任我們的回購主管。

Josh, so I think that it's a constantly changing thing. It's based on the opportunity at any point in time. We will never do either if it precludes us from investing the money in the business opportunistically. So we will never do any of those things if they constrain our management of the business. At the moment in time where we think we're generating extra capital and we look ahead and see that we're going to have extra capital, we'll then make the judgment as to the share values, sort of looking out ahead versus the kinds of returns we think we should get to give our shareholders money. There's not an absolute rule, I think, that when the stock gets down to what we would say is an attractive price, we sort of -- we pay that, and it just got, relatively speaking, more attractive price until you go back probably -- certainly more than 15 years.

喬什，所以我認為這是一個不斷變化的事情。它基於任何時間點的機會。如果這會妨礙我們機會主義地將資金投資於業務，我們永遠不會這樣做。因此，如果這些事情限制了我們對業務的管理，我們永遠不會做任何事情。當我們認為我們正在產生額外資本並且我們展望未來並看到我們將擁有額外資本時，我們將對股票價值做出判斷，有點展望未來與我們認為我們應該給股東錢的回報類型。我認為，沒有絕對的規則，當股票跌至我們所說的有吸引力的價格時，我們支付了該價格，相對而言，它就得到了更具吸引力的價格，直到你回溯到可能——當然超過 15 年。

So we were more inclined to do it. And it's a judgment we make each time we decide that we think we're going to have excess capital for a period of time as far ahead as we can see. And we try and make the judgment at that point in time, the stock price versus what we view as the intrinsic value of the enterprise. And we look ahead. So it's not that there's an absolute rule changes as we look at where we are, we're -- our leverage is a lot more stable now.

所以我們更願意這樣做。這是我們每次決定認為在我們所能預見的未來一段時間內將擁有過剩資本時做出的判斷。我們試圖在那個時間點做出判斷，股票價格與我們認為的企業內在價值。我們展望未來。因此，當我們看看我們所處的位置時，並不是說絕對的規則發生了變化，我們的槓桿現在更加穩定了。

We have the longer-term debt. We don't have any of those kinds of uncertainties that we had before. So there's not really a single rule that we go by. It's really looking ahead and saying, how do we think we'll best treat the shareholders by using the money effectively. And that obviously has to do with the price of the stock relative to the intrinsic value of the company.

我們有長期債務。我們沒有以前那樣的任何不確定性。所以我們並沒有真正遵循的單一規則。它確實是在展望未來並說，我們認為如何通過有效地使用這些資金來最好地對待股東。這顯然與股票價格相對於公司內在價值有關。

There are no further questions at this time. Rob, I will turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。羅布，我會把電話轉回給你。

Okay, Breanna, thank you, and thank you all very much for joining the call. Again, I think this was a moment where the company once again demonstrated its ability to manage risk and to focus on return and recognize that volatility is an important piece of that. We will look forward to speaking with you all in about 90 days. Thank you.

好的，Breanna，謝謝你，非常感謝大家加入通話。我再次認為，在這個時刻，該公司再次展示了其管理風險和關注回報的能力，並認識到波動性是其中的重要組成部分。我們期待在大約 90 天內與大家交談。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。