淡水河谷 (VALE) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vale's first quarter 2025 earnings call. This conference is being recorded and the replay will be available on our website at vale.com. The presentation is also available for download in English and Portuguese from our website. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安。歡迎參加淡水河谷 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。本次會議將被錄製，重播將在我們的網站 vale.com 上提供。您也可以從我們的網站下載英文和葡萄牙語版本的簡報。（操作員指示）

We would like to advise that forward-looking statements may be provided in this presentation, including Vale's expectations about future events or results, encompassing those matters listed in the respective presentation. We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. To obtain information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, CVM. And in particular, the factors discussed under forward-looking statements and Risk Factors in Vale's annual report on Form 20-F.

我們謹此提醒，本簡報中可能提供前瞻性陳述，包括淡水河谷對未來事件或結果的預期，涵蓋相應簡報中列出的事項。我們提醒您，前瞻性陳述並不能保證未來的表現，並且涉及風險和不確定性。欲了解可能導致結果與淡水河谷預測不同的因素，請參閱淡水河谷向美國證券交易委員會、巴西證券交易委員會 (CVM) 提交的報告。特別是淡水河谷 20-F 表年度報告中前瞻性陳述和風險因素中討論的因素。

With us today are Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, CEO; Mr. Marcelo Bacci, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Rogério Nogueira, Executive Vice President, Commercial and Development; Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Mr. Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals.

今天和我們在一起的是首席執行官 Gustavo Pimenta 先生；財務和投資者關係執行副總裁 Marcelo Bacci 先生；羅傑裡奧·諾蓋拉先生 (Rogério Nogueira)，商業和發展執行副總裁；運營執行副總裁 Carlos Medeiros 先生；以及淡水河谷基本金屬公司首席執行官肖恩·烏斯馬爾先生。

Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Gustavo Pimenta.

現在我將會議交給古斯塔沃·皮門塔先生。

Sir, you may now begin.

先生，現在可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Vale's first-quarter 2025 conference call. First, I would like to take a moment to remind you of our strategic direction as defined by Vale 2030 vision. We are building a leading mining platform with a flexible portfolio of assets exposed to the right long-term fundamentals and based on a unique mineral endowment. All of that supported by a highly innovative and purpose-driven organization. We are confident the actions we are taking today will create substantial value to all of our stakeholders and will lead to a more resilient enterprise.

大家早安，歡迎參加淡水河谷 2025 年第一季電話會議。首先，我想花點時間提醒大家淡水河谷2030願景所定義的策略方向。我們正在建立一個領先的採礦平台，該平台擁有靈活的資產組合，具有正確的長期基本面，並以獨特的礦產資源為基礎。所有這些都得到了一個高度創新和目標驅動的組織的支持。我們相信，我們今天採取的行動將為我們所有的利害關係人創造巨大的價值，並使企業更具韌性。

The current trade war only reinforces the importance of building a competitive business that can thrive under different market conditions, and that is exactly what we are doing at Vale. Despite the short-term volatility and uncertainty, we remain highly optimistic about the future and our role in driving sustainable mining to support the global economic development.

目前的貿易戰只會強調建立一個能夠在不同市場條件下蓬勃發展的競爭性企業的重要性，而這正是我們在淡水河谷正在做的事情。儘管存在短期波動和不確定性，但我們對未來以及我們在推動永續採礦以支持全球經濟發展方面的作用仍然高度樂觀。

Now let's take a look into our Q1 performance in the next slide. Driven by our integrated supply chain and as anticipated, iron ore sales increased by 4% year-on-year, reaching 66 million tons while our production was 4% lower, mostly within our mine plan for the quarter, but also impacted by the higher rainfall in the northern system. Our operational excellence initiatives continue to bear fruit. S11D, for example, achieved its higher production for first quarter, thanks to the several asset reliability programs we have implemented.

現在讓我們在下一張投影片中看一下我們第一季的表現。在我們一體化供應鏈的推動下，正如預期的那樣，鐵礦石銷量同比增長 4%，達到 6600 萬噸，而我們的產量下降了 4%，這主要在本季度的礦山計劃之內，但也受到北方系統降雨量增加的影響。我們的卓越營運措施持續取得成果。例如，由於我們實施了多項資產可靠性計劃，S11D 第一季的產量實現了提高。

In Q1, we continued to prioritize the supply of medium grade products like BRBF and PFC1, which is the pellet feed produced in China. This approach maximizes the value generated across our business, particularly in a time of challenging margins in the steel industry. This is only possible, thanks to our flexible portfolio and integrated supply chain.

第一季度，我們持續優先供應BRBF、PFC1等中檔產品，即中國生產的顆粒飼料。這種方法可以最大限度地提高我們整個業務的價值，特別是在鋼鐵業利潤率面臨挑戰的時期。這得益於我們靈活的產品組合和整合的供應鏈。

On increased flexibility, I'm happy to report that our three main growth projects in iron ore are progressing as planned. Vargem Grande in Capanema, which started operations at the end of 2024 will produce a combined 40 million tons of iron ore in 2025, securing adherence to our production guidance as well as greater portfolio flexibility.

在提高靈活性方面，我很高興地報告，我們在鐵礦石領域的三個主要成長項目正在按計劃進展。位於卡帕內瑪的 Vargem Grande 鐵礦於 2024 年底開始運營，預計到 2025 年將生產總計 4000 萬噸鐵礦石，確保遵守我們的生產指導並提高投資組合的靈活性。

Both projects are expected to reach full capacity in the first half of 2026. Furthermore, the expansion of our Plus 20 project at S11D is advancing well. Having achieved 73% of its physical progress by March, we are confident that this key project will begin operations in the second half of 2026, delivering high-quality volumes at remarkably low production cost with an expected C1 in dollars per ton at mid-teens.

預計這兩個項目將於 2026 年上半年達到滿載生產。此外，我們在 S11D 的 Plus 20 專案擴建進展順利。截至 3 月份，該專案已完成 73% 的實體進度，我們相信，這項關鍵專案將於 2026 年下半年開始運營，以極低的生產成本提供高品質的產品，預計每噸成本將達到 15 至 20 美元。

We are advancing in the mining of the future agenda, investing in cutting-edge technology and fostering innovation to enhance the safety and efficiency of our operations. We are currently operating 3 mines with autonomous equipment, including heavy haul trucks and drilling rigs. And recently, we extended this technology to the loading yard at the Guaiba port in the southern system. This technology has led to a 12% increase in recovery rates at the port, allowing us to relocate personnel from higher risk activities to a safer work environment. We will gradually increase our autonomous program, expanding from 14 to 70 autonomous trucks at Serra Norte over the next three years, delivering substantial productivity improvement on the site.

我們正在推進未來採礦議程，投資尖端技術並促進創新，以提高我們營運的安全性和效率。我們目前正在營運 3 座配備自動化設備的礦山，包括重型卡車和鑽孔機。最近，我們將這項技術擴展到了南部系統瓜伊巴港的裝卸場。這項技術使港口的恢復率提高了 12%，使我們能夠將人員從高風險活動轉移到更安全的工作環境。我們將逐步擴大我們的自動駕駛計劃，在未來三年內將 Serra Norte 的自動駕駛卡車從 14 輛擴大到 70 輛，從而大幅提高現場的生產效率。

In our Energy Transition Metals business, we continue to see solid and consistent progress across all operations. Copper production increased 11% year-on-year, achieving the highest output for first quarter since 2020. The strong performance came from Salobo and Sossego operations as well as from the ramp-up of the Voisey's Bay project in Canada.

在我們的能源轉型金屬業務中，我們繼續看到所有營運都取得了穩定、持續的進展。銅產量年增11%，創2020年以來第一季最高產量。強勁的業績表現得益於 Salobo 和 Sossego 的營運以及加拿大 Voisey's Bay 專案的推進。

In nickel, Voisey's bay and Onca Puma have contributed to an 11% increase in production year-on-year. We are glad to see that a strong operational performance, together with the positive impact of by-product prices have contributed to more than doubling the EBITDA of the base metals organization compared to the same period last year.

在鎳方面，Voisey's Bay 和 Onca Puma 的產量年增了 11%。我們很高興地看到，強勁的營運業績，加上副產品價格的正面影響，使得基本金屬部門的EBITDA較去年同期成長了一倍以上。

Together with Shaun and his leadership team, we remain highly committed to delivering continued improvements to our operational performance as well as on accelerating our value-accretive growth on copper. Our Novo Carajas initiative was put in place early in the year with a dedicated leadership team, and I'm very excited with the initial insights which only reinforced the great opportunity we have ahead of us.

我們與肖恩及其領導團隊一起，高度致力於持續改善我們的營運績效，並加速銅的價值增值成長。我們的 Novo Carajas 計劃於今年年初由一支專門的領導團隊實施，我對最初的見解感到非常興奮，這進一步證實了我們面前的巨大機會。

Now I would like to comment on the strategic partnership we announced with GIP at Alianca Energia. As you know, Vale has been dedicated to sourcing all of its energy needs from renewables for many years and reached this milestone in Brazil in 2023, two years ahead of schedule, having access to clean and competitive power is crucial for us.

現在我想評論一下我們與 Alianca Energia 的 GIP 宣布的策略合作夥伴關係。眾所周知，淡水河谷多年來一直致力於從再生能源中滿足其所有能源需求，並於2023年在巴西提前兩年實現了這一里程碑，獲得清潔且具有競爭力的電力對我們來說至關重要。

And by bringing a strategic partner like GIP, we can create an asset-light business that can help us deliver on our long-term decarbonization goals. With the closing expected in the second half of the year, Vale will hold 30% of the new joint venture, and we received $1 billion in cash proceeds.

透過引進像 GIP 這樣的策略合作夥伴，我們可以創造輕資產業務，幫助我們實現長期脫碳目標。預計該交易將於今年下半年完成，淡水河谷將持有新合資公司 30% 的股份，而我們將獲得 10 億美元的現金收益。

Finally, I would like to highlight that we recently published our 2024 integrated report. This disclosure is part of our commitment to transparent and comparable reporting on our ESG progress and challenges. In 2024, Vale invested over $250 million in decarbonization initiatives as part of our journey to net zero Scope 1 and 2 by 2050.

最後，我想強調的是，我們最近發布了 2024 年綜合報告。此揭露是我們對 ESG 進展和挑戰的透明和可比較報告的承諾的一部分。2024 年，淡水河谷投資超過 2.5 億美元用於脫碳計劃，這是我們到 2050 年實現淨零範圍 1 和 2 目標的一部分。

In the circular mining front, we recovered almost 30 million tons of iron ore by reusing tailings and other materials from our operations, reducing waste and creating value. The report also touches on our community relationship plans, which are channels designed to share information about our operations and implied risks and impacts.

在循環採礦方面，我們透過重新利用營運中產生的尾礦和其他材料回收了近 3,000 萬噸鐵礦石，減少了浪費並創造了價值。該報告還涉及我們的社區關係計劃，這些計劃旨在分享有關我們的營運以及隱含風險和影響的資訊。

It is also a way for us to listen to the perspectives and concerns of the local communities, incorporating those into our business decisions. I invite you to read the full report to get a better understanding of our sustainability journey and how we are working to build an even better Vale.

這也是我們傾聽當地社區的觀點和關切並將其納入我們的商業決策的一種方式。我邀請您閱讀完整報告，以便更好地了解我們的永續發展歷程以及我們如何努力建立更好的淡水河谷。

Now I'll turn to Marcelo Bacci to talk about our financial performance. I will be back for closing remarks before the Q&A session. Thank you.

現在我請馬塞洛·巴奇 (Marcelo Bacci) 談談我們的財務表現。我將在問答環節之前回來做結束語。謝謝。

Thanks, Gustavo, and good morning, everyone. As you can see, our pro forma EBITDA reached $3.2 billion in the quarter, 8% lower year-on-year which we see as a solid performance, particularly considering that iron ore prices fell 16% in the same period. The combination of the continued C1 cost reduction and an encouraging performance from Vale Base Metals which doubled its EBITDA in the period were the key factors for the resilience in the quarter.

謝謝，古斯塔沃，大家早安。如您所見，本季我們的備考 EBITDA 達到 32 億美元，年減 8%，我們認為這是一個穩健的表現，尤其是考慮到同期鐵礦石價格下跌了 16%。C1 成本的持續降低，加上淡水河谷基本金屬業務的令人鼓舞的業績（期內其 EBITDA 翻了一番），是本季度實現復甦的關鍵因素。

Let's take a closer look at our cost performance on the next slide. Our costs continue on a very positive momentum. In Q1, iron ore C1 cash costs, excluding third-party purchases, reached $21 per ton, 11% lower year-on-year, driven by our efficiency initiatives and a favorable exchange rate. With the strong start in 2025, we're even more confident in achieving our C1 cost guidance for the year of $20.5 to $22 per ton. Our all-in cost performance was also solid, with a 7% year-on-year reduction, reaching $54.4 per ton.

讓我們在下一張投影片中仔細看看我們的成本表現。我們的成本繼續保持非常積極的勢頭。第一季度，受我們提高效率的舉措和有利的匯率推動，鐵礦石 C1 現金成本（不包括第三方採購）達到每噸 21 美元，年減 11%。隨著 2025 年的強勁開局，我們更有信心實現年度 C1 成本指導價 20.5 美元至 22 美元/噸。我們的整體成本表現也很穩健，年減 7%，達到每噸 54.4 美元。

The improvement was not only driven by a lower C1 but also by lower freight costs and expenses. This was our lowest all-in cost for a first quarter since 2022.

這種改善不僅是由於 C1 降低，還因為運費和費用降低。這是我們自 2022 年以來第一季的最低全成本。

Turning to our Energy Transition Metals business. We observed a significant year-on-year improvement in both operational and financial metrics already reflecting some initiatives from the asset review. In copper, our all-in cost decreased by 63%, reaching $1200 per ton, substantially below our $2,800 to $3,300 per ton guidance range. This was due to strong performances at Salobo and Sossego and increased byproduct revenues benefiting from higher gold prices. We are highly confident on delivering our copper all-in guidance in 2025.

轉向我們的能源轉型金屬業務。我們觀察到營運和財務指標同比都有顯著改善，這已經反映了資產審查的一些舉措。就銅而言，我們的總成本下降了 63%，達到每噸 1200 美元，遠低於我們每噸 2800 至 3300 美元的指導範圍。這是由於薩洛博 (Salobo) 和索塞戈 (Sossego) 的強勁表​​現以及金價上漲帶來的副產品收入增加。我們對在 2025 年實現銅全包指導目標充滿信心。

In nickel, the all-in cost decreased by 4% year-on-year, driven by solid operating performance and higher volumes, leading to fixed cost dilution. Nickel costs should decrease in the upcoming quarters, driven by the ramp-up of the Voisey's Bay underground mine and by our continued efforts towards efficiency gains.

在鎳方面，受穩健的經營業績和產量增加的推動，總成本年減 4%，導致固定成本稀釋。受沃伊斯灣地下礦產量增加以及我們持續努力提高效率的推動，未來幾季鎳成本應該會下降。

Now moving on to cash generation. Recurring free cash flow reached roughly $500 million in the quarter, lower than the $800 million generated in Q4, mostly driven by seasonally lower EBITDA and lower than usual working capital variation. During Q1, we had a lower-than-normal cash collection as we opted to ship less in December of '24, given our portfolio optimization strategy.

現在開始討論現金產生。本季經常性自由現金流達到約 5 億美元，低於第四季的 8 億美元，主要原因是季節性 EBITDA 較低以及營運資本變動低於平常。在第一季度，由於我們根據投資組合最佳化策略選擇在 24 年 12 月減少出貨量，因此我們的現金收款低於正常水準。

Lastly, total CapEx was slightly lower year-on-year, trending in line with our guidance for 2025 of approximately $5.9 billion. Our free cash flow generation and strong cash position were primarily used to return value to our shareholders with the payment of $2 billion in dividends and interest on capital in March.

最後，總資本支出較去年同期略有下降，與我們對 2025 年約 59 億美元的預期一致。我們的自由現金流產生和強勁的現金狀況主要用於向股東返還價值，即 3 月支付了 20 億美元的股息和資本利息。

As you can see on the next slide, this payment led to a seasonally and expectedly higher expanded net debt, which reached $18.2 billion in the quarter. Our expanded net debt range remains between $10 billion and $20 billion. We will gradually bring it back to the mid-level of this target in the coming quarters, supported by higher cash flow generation and along with a $1.1 billion positive impact from the Alianca Energia deal, which includes both cash and deconsolidated debt.

正如您在下一張投影片中看到的，這筆款項導致淨債務出現季節性和預期性的擴大，本季達到 182 億美元。我們的淨債務範圍擴大後仍維持在 100 億美元至 200 億美元之間。在更高現金流產生以及 Alianca Energia 交易（包括現金和非合併債務）帶來的 11 億美元積極影響的支持下，我們將在未來幾季逐步將其恢復到該目標的中等水平。

To conclude, I would like to reinforce our focus on disciplined capital allocation, maintaining net debt within our targets, utilizing asset-light strategies and delivering strong shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. As Gustavo mentioned earlier, we also remain highly committed to improving cost and CapEx efficiencies, making sure we become an even more competitive company.

最後，我想強調我們對嚴格資本配置的關注，將淨債務維持在目標範圍內，利用輕資產策略，並透過股利和回購為股東提供豐厚的回報。正如 Gustavo 先前提到的，我們也將繼續致力於提高成本和資本支出效率，確保我們成為一家更具競爭力的公司。

With that, I now pass the floor back to Gustavo.

現在，我將發言權交還給古斯塔沃。

Thanks, Marcelo. Before we open up for the Q&A session, I would like to reinforce the key takeaways from today's call. We will continue to leverage our supply chain flexibility in iron ore. Our ability to adapt the portfolio according to market conditions puts us in a unique position to maximize value. Additionally, the ramp-up of the Vargem Grande and Capanema projects will further enhance this position.

謝謝，馬塞洛。在我們開始問答環節之前，我想先強調一下今天電話會議的要點。我們將繼續利用鐵礦石供應鏈的彈性。我們能夠根據市場狀況調整投資組合，以實現價值最大化。此外，Vargem Grande 和 Capanema 計畫的推進將進一步增強這一地位。

At Vale-based metals, we are already seeing the benefits of the asset review initiatives. Our operational performance and EBITDA generation improved quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, and I'm highly confident that we will continue to make significant progress in the coming quarters, creating a leading energy transition metals business.

在淡水河谷的金屬業務中，我們已經看到了資產審查措施帶來的好處。我們的營運業績和 EBITDA 產生量逐季和逐年提高，我非常有信心我們將在未來幾季繼續取得重大進展，打造領先的能源過渡金屬業務。

Driving cost competitiveness across our businesses is a key priority for us, and I'm happy to see our Q1 performance demonstrating that the actions we are taking are already generating results, and we'll continue to do so in order to create value through the cycle.

提高我們業務的成本競爭力是我們的首要任務，我很高興看到我們第一季的業績表明，我們所採取的行動已經產生了成果，我們將繼續這樣做，以便在整個週期內創造價值。

On our sustainability journey, the recently published integrated report brings updates on our progress towards our ESG targets. We remain committed to our long-term goals and to continuously increasing transparency and keeping an open dialogue with our stakeholders.

在我們的永續發展歷程中，最近發布的綜合報告更新了我們實現 ESG 目標的進展。我們始終致力於實現我們的長期目標，不斷提高透明度並與我們的利害關係人保持公開對話。

And finally, our disciplined capital allocation approach, combined with strategic asset-light initiatives as was the case of the Alianca joint venture, we will continue to ensure healthy remuneration to our shareholders.

最後，我們嚴格的資本配置方法，結合策略性輕資產措施（如 Alianca 合資企業的情況），我們將繼續確保股東獲得豐厚的回報。

Now let's move to the Q&A session.

現在讓我們進入問答環節。

We are going to start the question-and-answer section of the call.

我們將開始電話會議的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.

拉斐爾·巴塞洛斯，布拉德斯科 BBI。

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. My first question is about the iron ore market. So iron ore prices have been holding up pretty well around the $100 per ton level, which is quite different from the pressure we have seen in other commodities, right? So I just wanted to check what kind of feedback you are getting from China? How healthy do you think the iron ore market is right now? And Gustavo, if you can complement here.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於鐵礦石市場。因此，鐵礦石價格一直保持在每噸 100 美元左右的水平，這與我們在其他商品中看到的壓力截然不同，對嗎？所以我只是想看看你從中國得到了什麼樣的回饋？您認為目前的鐵礦石市場狀況如何？還有 Gustavo，如果你能在這裡補充。

I mean, what has changed at this point in your capital allocation strategy given these macro uncertainties we are dealing with? And then my second question is for Rogério about Vale's commercial strategy. So looking at the release in your product mix, we have seen IOCJ volumes coming down, concentration in China going up and the orders line becoming more relevant. So it would be very helpful if you could talk a bit more about these movements, explain what is behind the orders line, and of course, give us more color on the overall commercial strategy.

我的意思是，考慮到我們正在處理的宏觀不確定性，您的資本配置策略目前發生了哪些變化？我的第二個問題是關於淡水河谷的商業策略，請問羅傑裡奧。因此，從您發布的產品組合來看，我們發現 IOCJ 銷量正在下降，而中國的集中度正在上升，訂單線變得更加重要。因此，如果您能多談談這些動向，解釋一下訂單背後的原因，當然，也給我們提供更多關於整體商業戰略的信息，那將會非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gustavo here. I'll start with the question on the capital allocation given the macro environment. Look, it's certainly something we are watching closely. We haven't yet seen a material impact on our operations or financial results. As you know, we sell very little, for example, into the US, nickel has been exempt.

我是古斯塔沃。我首先要問的是宏觀環境下的資本配置問題。瞧，這確實是我們正在密切關注的事情。我們尚未看到對我們的營運或財務表現產生重大影響。如您所知，我們銷售的產品很少，例如，銷往美國的產品中鎳是免稅的。

But we are monitoring closely because the situation is highly fluid and certainly if there is an overall impact in the GDP -- global GDP performance, this will certainly have an impact on commodities. So what we can do and what we are doing is to be highly focused on cost efficiency and highly disciplined on how we allocate capital to make sure we preserve liquidity, and we continue to deliver on our efficiency initiatives. We had a good Q1. I think that was highly encouraging for all of us, and we'll continue to do so vis-a-vis the current macro environment. So I'll pass to Rogério to cover the market question.

但我們正在密切關注，因為情況瞬息萬變，如果對 GDP（全球 GDP 表現）產生整體影響，這肯定會對大宗商品產生影響。因此，我們能夠做的和正在做的是高度關注成本效率，嚴格控制資本分配，以確保我們保持流動性，並繼續履行我們的效率措施。我們的第一季表現良好。我認為這對我們所有人來說都是非常令人鼓舞的，並且我們將繼續在當前的宏觀環境下這樣做。因此我將請羅傑裡奧討論市場問題。

Okay. Rafael, thank you for the question. I think the market, as Gustavo said, is fluid. It's volatile, difficult to predict, as you know. But we see it reactions differently in different geographies.

好的。拉斐爾，謝謝你的提問。我認為，正如古斯塔沃所說，市場是流動的。如你所知，它很不穩定，很難預測。但我們發現不同地區的反應有所不同。

Let me cover some of them. Let me start with China, which is the most important one. I think coming out of China, we see a mix of confidence and caution. A lot of the clients that we just visited recently, they're having their margins improved and waiting from some news from the government, especially on this new political meeting, which is expected to come in coming weeks. But we had real signals that the market was moving in the right direction.

讓我來介紹其中的一些。我先從中國開始，這是最重要的國家。我認為，從中國的情況來看，我們看到了信心與謹慎的交織。我們最近拜訪的許多客戶，他們的利潤率都在提高，並且在等待政府的一些消息，特別是有關這次新的政治會議的消息，預計將在未來幾週內舉行。但我們確實收到了市場正朝著正確方向發展的訊號。

So the first quarter 2025, we had a GDP of 5.4%, which was actually higher than expected. On the steel market, crude steel production was up 0.6%. Big iron production was even higher. Fixed asset income, which is something that we always look at on an aggregate basis was up 4% with manufacturing and infrastructure coming very strong out of the incentives from the Chinese government.

因此，2025 年第一季度，我們的 GDP 成長率為 5.4%，實際上高於預期。鋼鐵市場方面，粗鋼產量增加0.6%。大鐵產量甚至更高。固定資產收入是我們始終關注的總體數據，其成長了 4%，其中製造業和基礎設施在中國政府的激勵措施下表現強勁。

I think you all know properties are still struggling, but there are some good tailwinds, especially when you look into property sales, which is actually decelerating but at a much lower pace. So this actually gives us an indication that the market might have been at the bottom.

我想大家都知道房地產行業仍在苦苦掙扎，但也有一些很好的順風因素，尤其是當你看到房地產銷售時，它實際上正在減速，但速度要慢得多。所以這實際上向我們表明市場可能已經觸底。

On our client side, as I said, a lot of the clients that we have talked to are actually doing good margins of around CNY200 per ton. But on average, that's not the general market case. But they're actually -- it's actually improving, their heavy margins above zero.

在我們的客戶方面，正如我所說，我們交談過的許多客戶實際上都獲得了每噸約 200 元人民幣的良好利潤。但平均而言，這並不是普遍的市場狀況。但實際上，他們的利潤率正在改善，遠高於零。

So there's a bit of confidence. I think the other indicator, which is important when you look into churn is the blast furnace utilization, which is going up over 90%. Also in terms of the steel market. As you may see, inventory at mills and traders have come down. So all in all, I think very positive from a steel side.

所以還是有點信心的。我認為，當你研究客戶流失率時，另一個重要的指標是高爐利用率，該指標上升了 90% 以上。就鋼鐵市場而言也是如此。如您所見，工廠和貿易商的庫存已經下降。總而言之，我認為從鋼鐵方面來看這是非常積極的。

When you look and when we translate the steel into iron ore, we see that imports actually in this quarter decreased slightly because of the situation that the Australians faced. But at the same token, inventory has decreased. So we see a bit of a balanced market in China. But with -- as I said, a lot of expectations that the Chinese government would actually react to any impact that the tariffs would have and incentivize domestic consumption to offset exports.

當我們將鋼鐵換算成鐵礦石時，我們會發現由於澳洲面臨的情況，本季的進口量實際上略有下降。但同時，庫存卻減少了。因此，我們看到中國市場比較平衡。但正如我所說，許多人預期中國政府會對關稅的影響做出實際反應，並激勵國內消費來抵銷出口。

Ex-China, I think it's a little bit different. We see different markets reacting differently. Japan and Korea, for example, have a difficult challenge. We have been there talking to our clients. Japan, there is a construction situation, which the market is depressed, Korea, the auto manufacturing is facing some difficulties. They're also facing the election of the new Prime Minister and the EU, where they have some closure of some plants but we expect the loose monetary policy.

除了中國以外，我認為情況有點不同。我們看到不同的市場有不同的反應。例如，日本和韓國就面臨嚴峻的挑戰。我們一直在那裡與我們的客戶交談。日本方面，有建設情勢，市場不景氣；韓國方面，汽車製造業也面臨一些困難。他們也面臨新總理和歐盟的選舉，他們關閉了一些工廠，但我們預計他們會採取寬鬆的貨幣政策。

There might be some reaction. A lot of regions, India and Southeast Asia, some of the countries going up, but the rest of the world is a bit balanced. But all in all, when you look into the global supply demand, we believe it's going to be balanced. Brazil increasing production, India decreasing. Supply is still at about 1.6 billion tons.

可能會有一些反應。很多地區，包括印度和東南亞，有些國家都在上升，但世界其他地區則比較平衡。但總而言之，當你觀察全球供需時，我們相信它將達到平衡。巴西產量增加，印度產量減少。供應量仍在16億噸左右。

But with that, with a slight oversupply, we expect prices to still be at the levels of $100 per ton.

但由於供應略有過剩，我們預計價格仍將維持在每噸 100 美元的水平。

Caio Greiner, UBS.

瑞銀的 Caio Greiner。

Hello, good morning, everyone. Thank you. My first question, I wanted to get an update on your value-over-volume strategy. Rogério, I know you mentioned that iron ore markets are resilient so far. But I mean, what we're seeing is that the Chinese demand environment and the economy is likely to weaken over the coming quarters. So I mean, if in a scenario in which iron ore prices are impacted and start to move lower, at what level of prices would Vale start cutting its high-cost capacity? And how much capacity are we talking about here?

哈嘍，大家早安。謝謝。我的第一個問題是，我想了解你們的價值重於數量戰略的最新情況。羅傑裡奧，我知道您提到鐵礦石市場迄今為止表現強勁。但我的意思是，我們看到的是，中國的需求環境和經濟在未來幾季可能會減弱。所以我的意思是，如果鐵礦石價格受到影響並開始走低，淡水河谷會在什麼價格水平上開始削減其高成本產能？我們這裡討論的容量是多少？

This has been a question we have been getting a lot from investors. My second question for Bacci in terms of the CapEx efficiency program. Bacci, we're glad to see the CapEx moving lower on a year-over-year basis. It's in the right direction for a reduction compared to the previous guidance that you had. So I was just wondering if you could give us an update on how the program is evolving.

這是投資者經常向我們提出的問題。我向 Bacci 提出的第二個問題與資本支出效率計畫有關。Bacci，我們很高興看到資本支出較去年同期下降。與您之前的指導相比，這是朝著正確的減少方向發展的。所以我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下該計劃的進展。

If you could elaborate a bit more on the main initiatives. And I know you already revised the guidance downwards, but I was just wondering if Vale still see room for more -- if there's still room to revise down the CapEx figure for closer to $5 billion or $5.5 billion, that would be helpful.

如果您能更詳細地闡述主要舉措。我知道您已經下調了預期，但我只是想知道淡水河谷是否仍有進一步下調的空間——如果仍有下調資本支出數字至接近 50 億美元或 55 億美元的空間，那將會有所幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Before I go to the price question, let me just talk briefly about the portfolio, which was the question that was raised previously, and I ended up not answering. Look, I think we have indeed sort of conceptualized redesigned our portfolio. And we've done this under current market conditions, and we are beginning to implement these new changes. So let me provide the context and background of what I say and what I call the current market conditions. As you know, our clients are operating under very low margins, coking coal prices are very low.

在回答價格問題之前，我先簡單談談投資組合，這是之前提出的問題，但我最後沒有回答。看，我認為我們確實對我們的投資組合進行了某種概念化的重新設計。而我們在當前的市場條件下做到了這一點，並且我們正在開始實施這些新的變化。因此，讓我提供我所說的內容的背景以及我所說的當前市場狀況。如您所知，我們的客戶的利潤率非常低，焦煤價格非常低。

So what we see today is less of a need for productivity. And thus, quality premiums are at their lowest. And what clients are actually seeking for is for mid-grade iron ores. So in that regard and in that context, let me give you a few examples of what we're trying to do as we're starting to do. First, I think we're moving towards concentrating the most we can of our low-grade iron ore to provide the mid-grade products.

因此，我們今天看到的是，對生產力的需求減少了。因此，品質溢價處於最低水準。而客戶真正尋求的是中等品位的鐵礦石。因此，在這方面和背景下，讓我給你們舉幾個例子，說明我們正在開始做的事情。首先，我認為我們正在努力集中盡可能多的低品位鐵礦石來提供中品位產品。

It is an accretive movement in terms of the tons that we beneficiate but it is also very accretive when you look into the broader portfolio, and this is extremely important. We're also looking how to optimize this concentration of value chain outside Brazil looking for plants. They have good logistics, plus they have good operational performance where we have very good metallic yields so that we can make it even more profitable. I think the second initiative that I'd like to highlight is the launch of a mid-grade product out of Carajas. Why mid-grade?

就我們受益的噸數而言，這是一個增值運動，但當你審視更廣泛的投資組合時，它也是非常增值的，這一點非常重要。我們也正在尋找工廠來優化巴西以外的價值鏈集中度。他們擁有良好的物流，而且營運績效也很好，我們的金屬產量非常好，因此我們可以獲得更多的利潤。我想強調的第二個舉措是推出卡拉哈斯的中檔產品。為什麼是中級？

Again, this is much more appropriate to what the market is looking for. And being from Carajas, as we understand it, it actually would still have the good metallurgical properties, which are delivered by the Carajas ore because of its crystalline structure.

再一次，這更符合市場的需求。據我們了解，由於產自卡拉哈斯 (Carajas)，它實際上仍然具有良好的冶金性能，這是卡拉哈斯礦石因其晶體結構而具有的。

So it suits the market but it also helps us with providing some flexibility at the operational sites. So what do we mean by flexibility? This means that we can operate with lower strip ratios eventually reduce costs, eventually increase production.

因此它適合市場，同時也幫助我們在營運現場提供一些彈性。那我們所說的靈活性是什麼意思呢？這意味著我們可以以較低的剝離比進行操作，最終降低成本，並提高產量。

But not only that, actually, this allows us to increase our reserve base. So it's a very sensible move at a point that the market is actually not paying for. We're not actually providing us with very high premiums. Last but not least, we will need to have a transition period. And during that transition, you will see some fines, which actually not standard or non-standard fines that we will need to sell, but this -- it will be during the transition process, okay?

但不僅如此，實際上，這使我們能夠增加儲備基礎。因此，在市場實際上尚未支付的情況下，這是一個非常明智的舉措。我們實際上並沒有提供很高的保費。最後但同樣重要的一點是，我們需要一個過渡期。在過渡期間，您會看到一些罰款，這些罰款實際上不是我們需要出售的標準或非標準罰款，但這 - 這將在過渡過程中發生，好嗎？

But I'd like just to let you rest assured that our objective functioning in this is always, has always and will always be to maximize value. So it's not about only price realization or only volumes or only costs. It's about -- so the product of unit margin times volumes. So it's an absolute value maximization. This is what we're looking for.

但我只是想讓你們放心，我們的目標始終是、過去是、將來也永遠是實現價值最大化。因此，這不僅涉及價格實現、數量或成本。它是－單位利潤乘以交易量的乘積。所以這是一個絕對價值最大化。這就是我們所尋找的。

And again, as we do it and as we go through the exercise, we're flexing our supply chain. We are creating the broad portfolio that we can always come back to and if the market changes that we can change and adjust ourselves very quickly. So that's the whole picture here. The question on iron ore prices coming lower. This is a more difficult one because when we look what's going on in the world, and we see all these measures coming from the tariffs.

再次強調，當我們這樣做並進行演習時，我們正在調整我們的供應鏈。我們正在創建可以隨時回顧的廣泛投資組合，如果市場發生變化，我們可以很快地改變和調整自己。這就是整個情況。關於鐵礦石價格下跌的問題。這是一個更困難的問題，因為當我們觀察世界上正在發生的事情時，我們發現所有這些措施都來自關稅。

We don't know exactly what the reaction is going to be. So for example, if China reacts and actually puts a lot of incentives in the domestic economy, which is something quite likely. A lot of this steel which is currently being exported might revert back into China. And quite frankly, this can be even more positive given the fact that steel produced in China is essentially produced out of pig iron. I think the other element that people ask a lot is, okay, prices may come down because currencies are depreciating, oil prices are coming down.

我們不知道具體會有什麼反應。例如，如果中國做出反應並真正向國內經濟投入大量激勵措施，這是很有可能的。目前出口的大量鋼材可能會回流到中國。坦白說，考慮到中國生產的鋼鐵基本上是由生鐵製成的，這可能更具積極意義。我認為人們經常問的另一個因素是，價格可能會下降，因為貨幣貶值，油價下降。

It's still too early to talk about it and to see it. You see some currencies have depreciated but now coming back. My general feeling is that we will have a year which is very similar to in which prices are going to be stable at the very same levels that we're seeing right now.

現在談論它和看到它還為時過早。你會看到一些貨幣已經貶值，但現在又回升了。我的總體感覺是，我們將迎來與現在非常相似的一年，價格將穩定在我們現在看到的水平。

Caio, in relation to the CapEx question, the first quarter is seasonally lower normally. So you shouldn't be annualizing this amount. We're still shooting for the $5.9 billion. We are working constantly and seeing if we can find additional efficiencies, but we keep the guidance at 5.9% for the time being.

Caio，關於資本支出問題，第一季通常因季節性因素而較低。所以你不應該將這個金額按年化。我們仍將目標定為 59 億美元。我們不斷努力，看看是否能找到額外的效率，但目前我們仍將指導值維持在 5.9%。

Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

卡約·裡貝羅，美國銀行。

All right. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is on dividends. In the past years, Vale has announced extraordinary dividend payments, such as when the 10% stake in the base metals division was sold and more recently as well in the fourth quarter, right?

好的。大家早安。感謝您提供的機會。我的第一個問題是關於股息的。過去幾年，淡水河谷曾宣布過特別股息支付，例如出售基本金屬部門 10% 的股份時，以及最近第四季度，對嗎？

So my question is, with that announced transaction related to Alianca Energia, right, in which the company should receive a $1 billion cash influx, whether you see room to return that to shareholders in the form of dividends, particularly given that your expanded net debt is still below the ceiling of yourself in post cap, but now it's at $18.2 billion, which is closer to the top of that self-imposed range versus the $16.5 billion that you had in the fourth quarter, which is the last time that you announced an extraordinary dividend, is there a particular level of expanded net debt that you see the likelihood of those extraordinary dividends being highly likely.

所以我的問題是，隨著與 Alianca Energia 相關的交易的宣布，公司應該獲得 10 億美元的現金流入，您是否認為有空間以股息的形式將這筆錢返還給股東，特別是考慮到您的擴大淨債務仍然低於您自己設定的上限，但現在是 182 億美元，與你們上次宣布特別股息時第四季度的 165億美元相比，更接近您自己設定的上限，您是否認為在特定的淨債務擴大水平上，這些特別股息的可能性很高。

And then secondly, as you ramp Vargem Grande and Capanema, you should be extracting more volumes, higher grade volumes, which should help with your cash cost performance, just given the higher cost dilution. And you already started the year with a C1 closer to the lower part of the guided range for the year in a seasonally weaker period of production and shipments, right?

其次，隨著 Vargem Grande 和 Capanema 產量的增加，您應該開採更多產量、更高品位的產量，這應該有助於提高您的現金成本表現，因為成本稀釋程度更高。而且，今年年初，由於生產和出貨量處於季節性疲軟時期，你們的 C1 產量就已經接近指導範圍的下限了，對嗎？

So I wanted to see if you could share some color on whether you see room throughout this year to revise your cash cost guidance for the year lower and whether you see room to beat that flattish year-on-year production guidance? Those are my questions. Thank you.

所以我想看看您是否可以透露一些細節，即您是否認為今年全年有空間可以下調全年現金成本指導，以及您是否認為有空間可以超過與去年持平的同比生產指導？這些都是我的問題。謝謝。

Caio, this is Marcelo speaking. In relation to dividends, we are, as discussed by my colleagues before, we are in a very uncertain period in terms of market conditions. So it is not the right moment to discuss extraordinary dividends at this point. The cash inflow from the Alianca deal is already considered in our program for the year in which we intend to reduce the net debt level -- the expanded net debt level towards the $15 billion midrange. So we are already counting on that.

卡約，我是馬塞洛。關於股息，正如我的同事之前所討論的，我們正處於市場狀況非常不確定的時期。因此，現在不是討論特別股息的適當時機。我們今年的計劃已經考慮到了 Alianca 交易帶來的現金流入，我們打算降低淨債務水準——將擴大後的淨債務水準降至 150 億美元的中間水準。所以我們已經開始期待這一點了。

And you should expect that if given market conditions and our performance, if our expanded net debt trends below $15 billion, we have a higher probability of having extraordinary dividends or more buybacks. But other than that, I think it's too early to discuss that. In relation to your second question, we had indeed a very good first quarter in terms of cost.

而且您應該預料到，如果考慮到市場條件和我們的業績，如果我們擴大後的淨債務趨勢低於 150 億美元，那麼我們就更有可能獲得特別股息或更多的回購。但除此之外，我認為現在討論這個問題還為時過早。關於您的第二個問題，就成本而言，我們第一季的表現確實非常好。

The second quarter, I would like to highlight that, that's seasonally worse than the first quarter historically. So we expect because it carries the production cost of the first quarter, which is given the lower volume, it's a higher cost.

我想強調的是，第二季的情況從季節性來看比第一季更糟。因此我們預計，由於它承擔了第一季的生產成本，考慮到產量較低，成本會更高。

So the C1 on Q2 is going to be probably higher than in the first quarter, but still lower than the same period of last year. So looking at year -- full year performance, we are very confident about the guidance that we gave and again, it's too early at the beginning of the year to be thinking about the revision, but our level of confidence has increased indeed.

因此，第二季度的 C1 可能會高於第一季度，但仍低於去年同期。因此，縱觀全年業績，我們對給予的指引非常有信心，雖然年初考慮修改還為時過早，但我們的信心水平確實有所增強。

Daniel Sasson, Itau BBA.

Daniel Sasson，伊塔烏 BBA。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions, some of them have actually been answered. Just -- if you could give us more details on your strategy by or from third parties. I know that Rogério mentioned about having flexibility and to deal with different types of -- or different properties of ore to maximize absolute value.

大家好，早安。感謝您回答我的問題，其中一些問題實際上已經得到解答。只是——如果您可以透過第三方向我們提供有關您的策略的更多詳細資訊。我知道羅傑裡奧提到要具有靈活性，並處理不同類型或不同性質的礦石，以最大化絕對價值。

How are you thinking about the volumes that you're going to buy from third parties, especially considering that you're going through the ramp-up of Vargem Grande and Capanema? That would be my question.

您如何考慮從第三方購買的數量，特別是考慮到您正在經歷 Vargem Grande 和 Capanema 的擴張？這就是我的問題。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Hi, Daniel, thanks for the question. I think, first of all, I just would like to make it clear that we will only buy it if it is value accretive. If prices are at about $100 per tonne as they are today, we expect volumes to be close to what we've done last year, around $25 million per ton, right? But if market prices decrease, we will cut nonprofitable ores, I think, just to make it clear, and obviously, there are different miners with different kinds of ores, different types of costs. So there's a gradation in terms of cost.

你好，丹尼爾，謝謝你的提問。我認為，首先，我只想明確表示，只有當它具有增值作用時，我們才會購買它。如果價格像今天這樣保持在每噸 100 美元左右，我們預計交易量將接近去年的水平，約為每噸 2500 萬美元，對嗎？但如果市場價格下跌，我們將削減無利可圖的礦石，我想，只是為了說明這一點，顯然，不同的礦工有不同種類的礦石，不同類型的成本。因此，就成本而言，存在一個等級。

So as prices come down, it probably will reduce volumes, but we will reduce it gradually. Now margins differ based on product quality, railway, ports used, freight costs. So -- but again, rest assured that if prices come down, we'll cut it accordingly. So that we always keep very accretive volumes.

因此，隨著價格下降，產量可能會減少，但我們會逐漸減少。現在利潤率會根據產品品質、鐵路、使用的港口、運費而有所不同。所以——但請放心，如果價格下降，我們也會相應削減。這樣我們的交易量就始終保持著非常高的成長速度。

Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

卡洛斯·德阿爾巴，摩根士丹利。

Thank you very much. Just a couple of questions. One maybe for Rogério. Can you give us, Rogério, more color please on the ramp-up -- expected ramp-up or at least the progress in the stabilization works of the Plant 2 of the Briquettes Tubarao? And any color as to how the conversations with clients and the acceptance by them of this product is evolving?

非常感謝。僅有幾個問題。其中一個可能是給羅傑裡奧的。羅傑裡奧，您能否向我們詳細介紹一下圖巴朗煤球廠 2 號廠的產能提升情況——預期產能提升情況，或者至少是穩定工程的進展情況？與客戶的對話以及他們對該產品的接受度如何發展？

And the second question, maybe Gustavo, from -- if we step back and look at what is happening in the iron ore market, what is happening in China from the demand perspective, what is going to happen in Guinea with Simandou and the supplier expansion there.

第二個問題，也許是古斯塔沃，如果我們退一步來看看鐵礦石市場正在發生的事情，從需求角度來看中國正在發生的事情，幾內亞西芒杜和那裡的供應商擴張將會發生什麼。

Is there any circumstances under which you feel that Vale would need to increase its exposure to iron ore deposits in Brazil or at this moment, you think that focusing on what you already have with the great endowment of your reserves and the efficiencies that you have already put in place puts the company in a very strong position.

您是否認為在什麼情況下淡水河谷需要增加對巴西鐵礦石礦藏的投入？或者就目前而言，您認為專注於現有資源、豐富的儲量以及已經實施的高效措施，將使公司處於非常有利的地位。

Okay. Let me start with the ramp-up of our pellet plant BT01, and then I'll pass it to Medeiros. From a client point of view, we have a very long lineup of clients trying and looking for testing the briquettes because the industrial trials have been very successful. And we're now starting to produce for the short industrial trials. Now we're starting to produce for longer industrial trials.

好的。讓我先從我們的顆粒廠 BT01 的產能提升開始，然後再交給 Medeiros。從客戶的角度來看，我們擁有大量客戶正在嘗試和尋求測試煤球，因為工業試驗非常成功。現在我們開始進行短期工業試驗。現在我們開始進行更長時間的工業試驗。

What I can tell you is that we have a batch right now at a blast furnace client. We should be able to try it. It's a second generation of the briquettes to try within the next couple of months.

我可以告訴你的是，我們現在在高爐客戶那裡有一批產品。我們應該可以嘗試一下。這是將在未來幾個月內試用的第二代煤球。

And also, there is a lot which is in a direct reduction client. We're also expecting to test it within the next couple of months. So we have been successful in producing commercial products out of BT01. And as soon as we have these initial results, we will start actually sending lots for clients around the globe, but I'll let Medeiros talk about the ramp-up situation.

而且，還有很多是直接減少客戶端。我們還希望在接下來的幾個月內對其進行測試。因此，我們已成功地利用 BT01 生產出商業產品。一旦我們獲得這些初步結果，我們就會開始向全球客戶發送大量產品，但我會讓梅德羅斯談談成長情況。

Good morning. Hello Carlos. So talking about the briquette plant, it's ramping up according to our expectations. As Rogério mentioned, we have produced two batches of commercial products, one for direct reduction, another one for blast furnaces. Last month, we produced 40,000 tons of this of briquette. Now we have the plant down for some adjustments in the mixes and other parts of the plant.

早安.你好，卡洛斯。因此，談到煤球廠，它正在按照我們的預期不斷擴大。正如Rogério所提到的，我們已經生產了兩批商業產品，一批用於直接還原，另一批用於高爐。上個月，我們生產了4萬噸這種煤球。現在我們已經對工廠的混合物和其他部分進行了一些調整。

And maybe in a week or 10 days, we'll be ready to start production again. And our expectations is that until the year-end, we should be producing about 600,000 tons of briquette.

也許一周或十天后，我們就可以重新開始生產了。我們的預期是，到今年年底，我們將生產約 60 萬噸煤球。

I'll hand over now to Gustavo.

現在我將把麥克風交給古斯塔沃。

So Carlos, to your question on the iron ore deposits, you're right. I think we have a very unique endowment not only base metals, but also in iron ore, we've launched it early in the year, the new Carajas initiative. And we are seeing a lot of good insights from the team on our ability to increase copper, but also make sure we bring back the northern range to about 200 million tons a year, which would be highly accretive for our shareholders. So we are very focused on that. We are always looking for things beyond that in our portfolio if they make sense.

卡洛斯，關於鐵礦石礦床的問題，你是對的。我認為我們不僅在賤金屬方面擁有非常獨特的資源，而且在鐵礦石方面也擁有非常獨特的資源，我們在今年年初就推出了新的卡拉加斯計畫。我們從團隊中看到了很多關於我們增加銅產量的能力的很好的見解，同時也確保我們將北部地區的銅產量恢復到每年約 2 億噸，這將為我們的股東帶來巨大的增值。所以我們非常關注這一點。如果有意義的話，我們總是會在我們的投資組合中尋找超出這個範圍的東西。

But if they -- if we consider that they will make sense, they have to make sure and they have to fit within our capital allocation framework, our return thresholds, our risk assessment and so on. But you are right, I think most of the opportunities today reside on the development of our own endowment.

但如果我們認為它們是有意義的，那麼它們必須確保符合我們的資本配置框架、我們的回報門檻、我們的風險評估等等。但您說得對，我認為當今的大多數機會都取決於我們自身禀賦的發展。

Rodolfo De Angele, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Rodolfo De Angele。

Hi, good morning, everyone. I have two questions here. The first is on the nickel business. We see iron ore doing well, the trend of costs going down, the results on copper were quite impressive. But nickel remains even though you were able to cut costs, it's a business that's generating very, very little EBITDA. And we know it comes with -- If I'm not mistaken, close to $1 billion in CapEx every year.

大家好，早安。我這裡有兩個問題。第一個是關於鎳業務。我們看到鐵礦石表現良好，成本呈下降趨勢，銅的業績也相當令人印象深刻。但即使你能夠削減成本，鎳仍然存在，這是一項產生非常少的 EBITDA 的業務。我們知道它會帶來——如果我沒記錯的話，每年的資本支出接近 10 億美元。

So can you talk a little bit more about what can be done on that front? And my second question is to Rogério. Rogério, Vale has always been very creative in terms of commercial strategy, and we don't have to discuss BRBF and blending, which was really, really smart. But as we look into the future with the coming of Simandou, what can be done there? Because I feel like briquettes are great for a time when clearly, we move into decarbonization, but there may be a gap in terms of timing where we're going to have more and more high-quality material, not only that, but in the hands of Chinese and your competitors.

那麼，您能否進一步談談在這方面可以採取哪些措施？我的第二個問題是問羅傑裡奧的。Rogério，淡水河谷在商業策略方面一直非常有創意，我們不必討論 BRBF 和混合，這真的非常聰明。但是，當我們展望西芒杜的到來時，我們能做些什麼呢？因為我覺得，當我們明確進入脫碳階段時，蜂巢煤是很好的選擇，但在時間上可能存在差距，屆時我們將擁有越來越多的高品質材料，不僅如此，而且還掌握在中國和你們的競爭對手手中。

So what can be done on that front? So those are my two questions.

那麼在這方面我們可以做些什麼呢？這就是我的兩個問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Rodolfo, it's Shaun in Toronto. So to your question on nickel, I think I'll zoom out for a second and just take you back to the journey we talked about on the last earnings call. You may recall, we talked about starting off with reducing our overhead to reduce the burden on our operations and both copper and nickel. We termed this internally Project catalyst, and we talked about achieving a run rate of around EUR200 million a year of cost reduction. We've achieved that.

羅道夫，我是多倫多的肖恩。因此，對於您關於鎳的問題，我想我會暫時放寬話題，帶您回顧我們在上次財報電話會議上討論的歷程。您可能還記得，我們​​討論過從減少管理費用開始，以減輕我們的營運以及銅和鎳的負擔。我們在內部將此稱為專案催化劑，並討論了實現每年約 2 億歐元的成本削減的運行率。我們已經實現了這個目標。

In fact, I think we've exceeded what we had expected. And we've actually tried to take that further, just given the uncertainty that we're seeing geopolitically and in the markets. And so to give you a sense, relative to our plans, so including the overhead reductions, which, of course, have one-off costs that run rate is around one-third of our global overhead reduction and just far greater levels of engagement and opportunity and focus on business.

事實上，我認為我們已經超出了我們的預期。考慮到地緣政治和市場方面的不確定性，我們實際上已經嘗試進一步採取這項措施。因此，為了讓您了解我們的計劃，包括間接費用削減，當然，這些費用的一次性成本的運行率約為我們全球間接費用削減的三分之一，而且參與度、機會和對業務的關注度也大大提高。

We're at around about $285 million for the year. So the team has exceeded really what I thought they could achieve. And we're going to continue on that sort of cost efficiency program, which looks at just cash flow opportunities across the board, and that includes the nickel business. Now you've seen there's a lag between production and sales.

我們今年的支出約為 2.85 億美元。所以這個團隊確實超出了我想像中的成就。我們將繼續推行這種成本效益計劃，該計劃著眼於全面的現金流機會，其中包括鎳業務。現在您已經看到生產和銷售之間存在滯後。

I think as you look to nickel, bear in mind, not only are we focusing on the overhead reduction programs, you may recall, we have -- this year, we'll have a full year of Onca Puma furnace 1, which will contribute to fixed cost dilution and volumes.

我認為，當您關注鎳時，請記住，我們不僅關注間接費用削減計劃，您可能還記得，今年，我們將全年使用 Onca Puma 1 號爐，這將有助於固定成本稀釋和產量。

We will, and we're on track to bring on the second furnace at Onca Puma, which will take place during Q3, and we should start seeing volumes by the end of Q3 occurring, which will again add to fixed cost dilution.

我們會的，而且我們正按計劃在第三季度期間在 Onca Puma 啟用第二座熔爐，我們應該會在第三季度末開始看到產量，這將再次增加固定成本的稀釋。

And you'll recall, we announced around the time of Vale Day last year that we just finished the Voisey's Bay mine expansion. I was at site a few weeks ago. The team is doing remarkably well on that ramp-up. I think they're about 108%. So just above where they plan to be through Q1 and are doing well.

您可能還記得，我們​​在去年淡水河谷日前後宣布，我們剛剛完成了 Voisey's Bay 礦的擴建。幾週前我曾經到過現場。該團隊在這項提升中表現非常出色。我認為大約是 108%。因此，他們的業績略高於第一季的計劃，而且表現良好。

And then in Sudbury, you'll recall, we are focusing on our ramping up our productivities. We're targeting about a 30% productivity improvement and to maximize the utilization of our mill at 5.5 million tons this year and then to go beyond.

然後你會記得，在薩德伯里，我們正致力於提高生產力。我們的目標是將生產率提高 30% 左右，並在今年最大限度地提高工廠的利用率，達到 550 萬噸，並進一步超越。

So my message to you is you should start seeing more of those cost improvements because our focus for this business under any scenario is not to try to buy our way to a sustainable future in nickel. It's to firstly extract the potential going beyond what was identified in the asset review minimizing costs, maximizing our internal throughputs, focusing in a very disciplined way on cash margins and our ability to make sure we can generate value through the cycle.

所以我想告訴你們的是，你們應該開始看到更多的成本改進，因為在任何情況下，我們對這項業務的關注點都不是試圖透過購買來實現鎳的可持續未來。首先要挖掘超越資產審查所確定的潛力，最大限度地降低成本，最大限度地提高內部吞吐量，以非常自律的方式關注現金利潤率和確保我們能夠在整個週期中創造價值的能力。

And then I'd say the residual focus is to make sure that given the uncertainty and oversupply for the next several years, at least coming out of Indonesia is to position our portfolio through these activities in the lower half of the cost curve to be able to be resilient and to be able to give us and our investors the benefit in better price environments in the future.

然後我想說，剩下的重點是確保考慮到未來幾年的不確定性和供應過剩，至少在走出印尼之後，透過這些活動將我們的投資組合定位在成本曲線的下半部分，以便能夠具有彈性，並能夠在未來更好的價格環境中讓我們和我們的投資者受益。

And lastly, you'll recall, as part of that initiative, we're also looking at the portfolio optimization. And we'd announced previously the review -- strategic review on Thompson. I just got back yesterday from Thompson, spent time on the ground there with the team, and they were focusing on not just the progress of that initiative which we've just finished the first round of and we'll be progressing that through to the next phase and then making a decision as to what our future holds with that asset in the second half of the year.

最後，您會記得，作為該計劃的一部分，我們還在研究投資組合優化。我們之前已經宣布了對湯普森的戰略評估。我昨天剛從湯普森回來，在那裡與團隊一起待了一段時間，他們關注的不僅僅是該計劃的進展，我們剛剛完成第一輪，我們將推進到下一階段，然後在下半年決定我們未來如何處理該資產。

So hopefully, that answers your question, but I think you should expect volumes to be increasing through this year, nickel, our overheads are down. That will be flowing through in all our results as we go forward. And you'll see the fixed cost dilution as our volumes come up in nickel through this year, and then we will continue to find ways to maximize value from our portfolio and our endowment. So hopefully, that gives you a good sense.

希望這能回答您的問題，但我認為您應該預計今年的產量會增加，鎳，我們的管理費用會下降。隨著我們不斷前進，這一點將貫穿我們所有的成果。隨著我們今年鎳產量的增加，您會看到固定成本的稀釋，然後我們將繼續尋找方法從我們的投資組合和捐贈中最大化價值。希望這能給你帶來好的印象。

Okay. Although first of all, thank you very much for your comments on our innovative commercial strategy. I think that's very good to hear about it. On briquettes, I think you're right. Even though they can be used with good results and good performance in blast furnaces, the real transformation, the real breakthrough comes when it's used together with direct reduction, which is going to be more and more used during the decarbonization journey.

好的。不過首先非常感謝您對我們創新商業策略的評論。我認為聽到這個消息非常好。關於煤球，我認為你是對的。儘管它們在高爐中使用時可以取得良好的效果和性能，但真正的轉變、真正的突破來自於與直接還原一起使用，而直接還原將在脫碳過程中得到越來越多的應用。

But on Simandou specifically, which was your question, Simandou has been in the market for quite some time. Obviously, when such a big project is actually put for put forward in the market, a lot of other investments they get actually postponed. So this is just one element. The other one that I'd like to highlight is what we've talked about doing our Vale Day, which is -- if you look into the industry, you have a natural depletion between 3% to 4% a year. And if you calculate this on top of 1.6 billion tons of seaborne iron ore we're talking about 50 million to 60 million tons depletion per year, which actually offsets the entry of Simandou to the market in a couple of years.

但具體到西芒杜，這是您的問題，西芒杜已經在市場上存在了相當長一段時間。顯然，當這樣一個大項目真正被推向市場時，許多其他投資實際上會被推遲。所以這只是一個元素。我想強調的另一點是我們在舉辦淡水河谷日時討論過的內容，如果你觀察一下這個行業，你會發現每年的自然損耗在 3% 到 4% 之間。如果再加上 16 億噸的海運鐵礦石，那麼每年的消耗量將達到 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬噸，這實際上抵消了西芒杜幾年內進入市場所產生的影響。

So this is important to first point that I would like to highlight.

所以這是我想要強調的第一點，非常重要。

Second one is that it is not only Simandou high-quality ore, which is coming to the market. A lot of the players who are developing -- two of the players who are developing Simandou are also planning to bring lower quality ores into the market to provide their blends. So what I want to say here is that ultimately, the amount of the surplus of high-grade iron ore to the market might not as -- might not be as just purely simple looking to the amount of Simandou.

第二，進入市場的不僅是西芒杜優質礦石。許多正在開發的參與者——其中兩家正在開發西芒杜的參與者還計劃將較低品質的礦石引入市場以提供混合礦石。所以我想說的是，最終，市場上高品位鐵礦石的過剩量可能並不像——可能並不像單純從西芒杜的數量來看那麼簡單。

And that actually allows us room to play. Having said that, what we're -- this decision on the portfolio, the flexibilization of the supply chain will come in very handy because depending on how the market evolves, we will have a portfolio of products that we can tap into a comprehensive portfolio of products that we can tap into to maximize value.

這實際上給了我們發揮的空間。話雖如此，我們關於產品組合的決定，供應鏈的靈活性將非常有用，因為根據市場的發展，我們將擁有一個可以利用的綜合產品組合，以實現價值最大化。

Rodolfo, Gustavo here. Maybe just a quick note to add. I was with Rogério and our commercial team recently in Asia. And despite all of the noise we hear in terms of delay decarbonization and so on, our clients in China, Korea, Japan remain highly focused on decarbonizing their production processes. So this is something for me was good to hear.

羅道夫，我是古斯塔沃。也許只是簡單補充一下。我最近和 Rogério 以及我們的商業團隊一起在亞洲。儘管我們聽到很多關於延遲脫碳等方面的噪音，但我們在中國、韓國和日本的客戶仍然高度關注其生產過程的脫碳。所以我很高興聽到這個消息。

Certainly, I'm not saying we don't have challenges on that agenda globally. But I continue to see our key clients highly focused on pursuing decarbonized routes, which I think was encouraging for us to see a lot of momentum, for example, that we are seeing in the Mega Hubs strategy. People are not moving back. So that was, I think, a good data point that we got recently from our clients.

當然，我並不是說我們在全球範圍內沒有面臨這項議程的挑戰。但我繼續看到我們的主要客戶高度專注於尋求脫碳路線，我認為這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的，例如，我們在巨型樞紐策略中看到的巨大勢頭。人們沒有後退。所以我認為這是我們最近從客戶那裡獲得的一個很好的數據點。

Marina Calero, RBC.

瑪麗娜·卡萊羅（RBC）。

Good morning. Thanks for the call. I have a couple of questions on my side. First, on your production performance, it looks like rain levels in the Northeast system were heavier than usual in Q1. Can you give us some color on how production has been progressing so far in Q2?

早安.謝謝您的來電。我有幾個問題。首先，就你們的生產表現而言，第一季東北地區的降雨量似乎比平常更大。您能否向我們介紹一下第二季迄今的生產進度？

And then my second question is, can you remind us how much debt is linked to Alianca Energia?

我的第二個問題是，您能否提醒我們與 Alianca Energia 相關的債務有多少？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay. Marina, thanks for your question. So the rainfall during Q1 were unusually high. Just to put it some context, in the port in February, the rainfall levels were the highest in 20 years. So in March, particularly in Serra Norte, we had a rainfall that was 3 times higher than the average.

好的。瑪麗娜，謝謝你的提問。因此第一季的降雨量異常高。簡單來說，2 月港口的降雨量是 20 年來最高的。因此，三月份，特別是在塞拉諾特，降雨量是平均值的三倍。

So all these had an impact in our infrastructure that explains part of the lower volume that we saw. All these problems were fixed. And I must say that all the -- everything that we have in place in our port worked, the drainage systems, they worked. But the issue here was being close to the TML, we had to be extra careful in the way we handle our products. So all this is behind the rainfall now is back to normal levels in our mines in the North and also, we expect the rain season to be over in the next two, three weeks in our port.

所有這些都對我們的基礎設施產生了影響，這解釋了我們看到的部分交易量較低的原因。所有這些問題均已解決。我必須說，我們港口的所有設施都運作正常，排水系統也運作正常。但這裡的問題是靠近 TML，我們必須格外小心地處理我們的產品。所以這一切的背後是，我們北部礦場的降雨量已經恢復到正常水平，而且我們預計我們港口的雨季將在未來兩到三週內結束。

So far in Q2 in April, we have produced around 1 million, 1.1 million more than the same period of last year. So I'm talking about the first 20, 21 days of April. So that confirms that we are in the right path as far as our reliability and the stability of our production processes, okay.

截至目前，4月第二季我們的產量約為100萬輛，比去年同期增加了110萬輛。我說的是四月的前 20、21 天。所以這證實了我們在生產流程的可靠性和穩定性方面走在正確的道路上。

Marina, in terms of the Alianca deal, the impact on that is minor is around $100 million of the consolidated debt in addition to the $1 billion of cash that we're going to receive, of course.

瑪麗娜，就 Alianca 交易而言，其影響很小，除了我們將收到的 10 億美元現金外，還有大約 1 億美元的合併債務。

Christopher LaFemina, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的克里斯多福‧拉菲米納 (Christopher LaFemina)。

Hi guys, hopefully you can hear me okay. Thanks for taking my question. Most of my questions on operations have been answered. But I wanted to ask about capital allocation. And other mining companies are talking more about kind of stepping up their capital returns. Vale obviously has a really strong track record in terms of dividends and even buybacks and you're trading at an extraordinarily inexpensive valuation. So if we go into 2026 and the iron ore market is as resilient as we expect, generating good cash flow, your net debt is approaching the middle of that net debt target range do you step up the pace of buybacks?

大家好，希望你們能聽到我的聲音。感謝您回答我的問題。我關於操作的大部分問題都已得到解答。但我想問一下資本配置的問題。其他礦業公司也在談論如何提高資本回報。淡水河谷在股息和回購方面顯然有著非常強勁的業績記錄，而且其估值也非常便宜。因此，如果進入 2026 年，鐵礦石市場如我們預期的那樣具有彈性，產生良好的現金流，您的淨債務接近淨債務目標範圍的中間值，您會加快回購的步伐嗎？

How do you look at buybacks versus dividends? Because it seems like buying back shares at the current price or current valuation is a very compelling option for you? That's my first question. And secondly, it's interesting how it feels like in the world of iron ore, we're always playing defense and trying to understand strategic decisions in a weaker market and what might prevent that weaker market from happening. But of course, we don't know where prices are going to go.

您如何看待回購與股利？因為以當前價格或當前估值回購股票對您來說似乎是一個非常有吸引力的選擇？這是我的第一個問題。其次，有趣的是，在鐵礦石領域，我們總是處於防禦狀態，並試圖了解疲軟市場中的策略決策以及如何阻止疲軟市場發生。但當然，我們不知道價格將會走向何方。

And it's possible that we get higher prices. And I'm wondering, you've been the leader in terms of value over volumes and generally has been taking capacity off-line in weaker markets. But how does Vale change operationally in the event that prices materially and somewhat sustainably surprised to the upside. So if we're in a $120, $130 price range for a period of time, what do you do differently in that case?

我們有可能獲得更高的價格。我想知道，你們在價值方面一直處於領先地位，而在較弱的市場中，你們通常會減少產能。但是，如果價格出現實質且持續的意外上漲，淡水河谷的運作將如何改變？因此，如果我們在一段時間內處於 120 美元、130 美元的價格範圍內，在這種情況下您會採取什麼不同的措施？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Christopher, this is Marcelo speaking. Thank you for your questions. In terms of capital allocation, we are now in a phase, as I mentioned before, that our intention is to bring our expanded net debt back to the middle of the range around $15 billion. If we approach that faster than we expect, and of course, you're right that there's a lot of uncertainty on the market scenario and prices could go higher than we are seeing today. The trend of having extraordinary dividends and buybacks is, of course, higher.

克里斯多福，我是馬塞洛。感謝您的提問。在資本配置方面，正如我之前提到的，我們現在正處於一個階段，我們的目標是將擴大後的淨債務恢復到約 150 億美元的中間水準。如果我們以比預期更快的速度實現這一目標，當然，您說得對，市場狀況存在許多不確定性，價格可能會比我們今天看到的更高。當然，獲得特別股息和回購的趨勢更高。

And the choice between the two alternatives will depend a lot on where the share price is.

而這兩種選擇之間的選擇很大程度上取決於股價的水平。

If you remember last quarter, we decided to approve a new volume of buyback program considering that the share price was very attractive for that. So you should be monitoring the combination of the share price and the level of expanded net debt and given the fact that we -- when we are back to the $15 billion level, and if price levels are attractive as they are today, we have a higher chance of having more buybacks.

如果您還記得上個季度，我們決定批准新的回購計劃，因為當時的股價非常有吸引力。因此，您應該監控股價和擴大的淨債務水平的組合，並考慮到我們 - 當我們回到 150 億美元的水平時，如果價格水平像今天一樣具有吸引力，我們就有更高的機會進行更多回購。

So Christopher, Gustavo here. I think on your second question, I think one of the unique advantages and characteristic of Vale is the fact that we have a very wide flexible portfolio, right? And if you look last year, just to give you an example, we removed 8 million tons from the market in Q4 because prices were not there. Now that we are having Vargem Grande, Capanema and later Plus 20 come online, I think we are finally having after many years a greater -- an even greater flexibility to play value over volume. So in a positive scenario like the one you quoted, I'm sure you're going to have the opportunity to go further in our supply chain and capture value as we can do when the markets are down.

克里斯多福，我是古斯塔沃。關於你的第二個問題，我認為淡水河谷的獨特優勢和特點之一是我們擁有非常廣泛且靈活的產品組合，對嗎？舉個例子，如果你看去年，我們在第四季從市場上撤出了 800 萬噸，因為價格不高。現在，我們已經有了 Vargem Grande、Capanema 以及後來的 Plus 20 上線，我想，經過多年，我們終於擁有了更大的——甚至更大的靈活性，可以發揮價值而非數量的作用。因此，在您所引用的積極情況下，我相信您將有機會在我們的供應鏈中走得更遠並獲取價值，就像我們在市場低迷時所做的那樣。

So I think the three projects we are bringing online, they will be critical for us to have increased flexibility to play even more the value over volume. And every single ship that we sell, every single vessel that goes out to the market, we make money on it. So we are very disciplined on how we allocate our cargoes and volumes into the market, and we'll continue to do so.

因此，我認為我們上線的三個項目對於我們提高靈活性、發揮價值而非數量至關重要。我們售出的每一艘船、每一艘進入市場的船隻，我們都賺得盆滿缽滿。因此，我們對如何將貨物和數量分配到市場非常嚴格，並且我們將繼續這樣做。

In addition to what Gustavo is saying, working on a more comprehensive menu of products, if you will, that we can access and change our mine plans, our logistics very quickly to adjust it to the market reality. So if prices go up, we can change it quickly. If prices come down, we can react similarly quickly. So that's exactly what we're building. We have the capabilities, we have the systems, but we're trying to make it more fluid.

除了古斯塔沃所說的，如果你願意的話，我們正在製定一份更全面的產品菜單，以便我們可以快速訪問和更改我們的礦山計劃和物流，以適應市場現實。因此，如果價格上漲，我們可以迅速做出改變。如果價格下降，我們也可以迅速做出反應。這正是我們正在建構的。我們有能力，有系統，但我們正在努力使其更加流暢。

Yuri Pereira, Santander.

尤里·佩雷拉，桑坦德銀行。

Hi guys, good morning. Thank you. First question to Shaun. Do you have any sensitivity of gold prices on company's copper costs? And maybe to Gustavo, regarding the Mariana agreement, do you have recently more municipalities searching for an agreement with you?

大家好，早安。謝謝。第一個問題問肖恩。黃金價格對公司銅成本的敏感度如何？也許對古斯塔沃來說，關於馬裡亞納協議，最近是否有更多市政當局尋求與您達成協議？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yuri, hi. Yeah, on the gold sensitivity, obviously, we're experiencing pretty good gold environment right now. You'll see that for every $100 an ounce move in gold price. What that does for our all-in cost for copper is about $135 a ton.

尤里，你好。是的，就黃金敏感度而言，顯然我們現在正經歷著相當不錯的黃金環境。每盎司金價每變動 100 美元，您就會看到這一點。這意味著我們的銅總成本約為每噸 135 美元。

On your question on the municipalities, the time has passed. So we had a deadline for the municipalities to join. So the majority of it joined and the ones that have not joined will not be able to enjoy the payments that have been already made to the other ones.

關於你提到的市政當局的問題，時間已經過去了。因此，我們為各市政府的加入設定了一個最後期限。因此，大多數已加入的成員和尚未加入的成員將無法享受已向其他成員支付的款項。

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Vale's conference is now concluded. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.

今天的問答環節到此結束。淡水河谷的會議現已結束。我們感謝您的參與並祝您有個愉快的一天。