淡水河谷 (VALE) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vale's second-quarter 2024 earnings call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available on our website at vale.com. The presentation is also available for download in English and Portuguese from our website. (Operator Instructions)

早安，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加淡水河谷 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中，重播將在我們的網站 vale.com 上提供。該演示文稿還可以從我們的網站下載英語和葡萄牙語版本。（操作員說明）

We would like to advise that forward-looking statements may be provided in this presentation, including Vale's expectations about future events or results encompassing those matters listed in their respective presentation. We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. To obtain information and factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the Brazilian Comissao Valores Mobiliarios, and in particular, the factors discussed under forward-looking statements and Risk Factors in Vale's annual report on Form 20-F.

我們謹建議，本簡報中可能會提供前瞻性陳述，包括淡水河谷對未來事件或包含各自簡報中列出的事項的結果的預期。我們提醒您，前瞻性陳述並不是對未來績效的保證，並且涉及風險和不確定性。要取得可能導致結果與淡水河谷預測不同的資訊和因素，請查閱淡水河谷向美國證券交易委員會、巴西 Comissao Valores Mobiliarios 提交的報告，特別是前瞻性陳述和聲明中討論的因素。年度報告中的風險因素。

With us today are Mr. Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo, CEO; Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Marcello Spinelli, Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions; Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Mr. Mark Cutifani, Chairman of Vale Base Metals.

今天與我們在一起的有首席執行官 Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo 先生；財務與投資者關係執行副總裁 Gustavo Pimenta 先生； Marcello Spinelli 先生，鐵礦石解決方案執行副總裁； Carlos Medeiros 先生，營運執行副總裁；以及淡水河谷基本金屬公司董事長 Mark Cutifani 先生。

Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo. Sir, you may now begin.

現在我將會議交給愛德華多·巴托洛梅奧先生。先生，您現在可以開始了。

Okay. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Here we are at the halfway mark of 2024. So let's take a look at the progress we've made on our key levers to unlock value at Vale. Starting with our safety journey, we are very pleased to inform that we have eliminated the B3/B4 dam, and we were able to achieve this one year ahead of the original schedule. We are working on two additional structures to be eliminated in 2024. By the end of this year, we will have completed more than 50% of our decharacterization program, a significant milestone.

好的。謝謝大家，大家早安。2024 年已過半。因此，讓我們來看看我們在釋放淡水河谷價值的關鍵槓桿上所取得的進展。從我們的安全之旅開始，我們非常高興地通知您，我們已經消除了 B3/B4 大壩，並且比原計劃提前一年實現了這一目標。我們正在研究另外兩個結構，預計在 2024 年拆除。到今年年底，我們將完成超過 50% 的去特徵化計劃，這是一個重要的里程碑。

On our second lever, we continue to see progress on iron ore operational stability with consistent performance and the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year increase in production. Our C1 cost that was seasonally higher in the second quarter, is on track to reach our guidance of $21.5 to $23 per tonne for the year, especially as our product mix and fixed cost dilution improves in the second half.

在第二個槓桿上，我們繼續看到鐵礦石運營穩定性取得進展，業績穩定，產量連續第三個季度同比增長。我們的 C1 成本在第二季度季節性較高，預計將達到我們今年每噸 21.5 美元至 23 美元的指導，特別是隨著我們的產品組合和固定成本稀釋在下半年得到改善。

On iron ore growth and quality, Vargem Grande is on its way to start-up in the next months, and the Capanema project is on track for the middle of next year, for a combined capacity addition of 30 million tonnes. We approved the Sohar Concentration Plant, this will serve as a pilot project of our Mega Hubs strategy, which will redefine industry supply chains, foster additional demand for high-quality pellet feed and position Vale as the world's most competitive direct reduction concentrate supplier.

在鐵礦石產量和品質方面，Vargem Grande 計畫將在未來幾個月啟動，而 Capanema 計畫也預計在明年年中投產，總產能將增加 3,000 萬噸。我們批准了蘇哈爾選礦廠，這將作為我們巨型中心策略的試點項目，將重新定義產業供應鏈，促進對高品質顆粒飼料的額外需求，並使淡水河谷成為全球最具競爭力的直接還原精礦供應商。

In energy transition metals, our Onça Puma, Sossego, and Salobo plants have also resumed operations with no impact on our guidance for the year. We recently announced the new CEO of Vale Base Metals. Shaun Usman brings his extensive mining experience and strategic vision to lead the company throughout its value creation pathway. In our pursuit towards ESG leadership in mining, we are reinforcing our commitment to transparent disclosure with the adoption of TNFD and ISSB.

在能源過渡金屬方面，我們的 Onña Puma、Sossego 和 Salobo 工廠也恢復運營，這對我們今年的指導沒有影響。我們最近宣布了淡水河谷基本金屬公司的新執行長。肖恩·烏斯曼 (Shaun Usman) 憑藉其豐富的採礦經驗和戰略願景，帶領公司走上價值創造之路。為了追求採礦業的 ESG 領先地位，我們透過採用 TNFD 和 ISSB 來加強我們對透明揭露的承諾。

On capital allocation, we recycle capital, increasing the maturity of our debt. And yesterday, we announced an interest on capital of $1.6 billion related to our first half of '24 performance according to our dividend policy.

在資本配置方面，我們回收資本，延長債務期限。昨天，我們宣布根據我們的股利政策，與 24 年上半年業績相關的 16 億美元資本利息。

Now let's go into the details of these highlights. Next slide. On dam safety, we concluded the decharacterization of B3/B4 dam, one of the dams that was put at the highest emergency level in 2019. Dikes 1A and 1B are the other two structures to be eliminated this year, after which we will have completed 53% of our decharacterization program. This is a pioneer process, and we are gaining experience and expertise, which is helping us to advance well. We remain committed to the elimination of all upstream dams in Brazil in a safe and conservative manner.

現在讓我們來詳細了解這些亮點。下一張投影片。在大壩安全方面，我們結束了 B3/B4 大壩的定性，該大壩是 2019 年處於最高緊急級別的大壩之一。堤防 1A 和 1B 是今年要拆除的另外兩個結構，之後我們將完成去特徵化計畫的 53%。這是一個開創性的過程，我們正在累積經驗和專業知識，這有助於我們取得良好進展。我們仍然致力於以安全和保守的方式拆除巴西所有上游​​水壩。

Next slide, please. On iron ore production, we delivered robust operational performance once again, the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year increase in production. This is a direct result of our efforts to improve the reliability and stability of our assets and processes as per our management model. S11D achieved a historical production record for a second quarter and the asset is a fundamental piece of our strategy for growing high-quality products in our portfolio. The S11D plus 20 million tonnes expansion project is scheduled to start up in 2026 and will support production growth.

請下一張投影片。在鐵礦石生產方面，我們再次實現了強勁的經營業績，產量連續第三個季度同比增長。這是我們根據管理模式努力提高資產和流程的可靠性和穩定性的直接結果。S11D 第二季度創下了歷史產量記錄，該資產是我們在產品組合中發展高品質產品策略的基本組成部分。S11D+2000萬噸擴建計畫於2026年啟動，將支持產量成長。

Finally, I would like to highlight our sales, which grew 7% year-over-year, reflecting our strong performance. The result of the first semester reinforces our confidence and commitment to meet the top end of our 2024 guidance. This demonstrates that Vale now has a business with much greater predictability, providing a solid foundation for the future.

最後，我想強調我們的銷售額，年增 7%，反映了我們強勁的業績。第一學期的結果增強了我們實現 2024 年指導目標上限的信心和承諾。這表明淡水河谷現在的業務具有更大的可預測性，為未來奠定了堅實的基礎。

Next slide. Our key iron ore projects are underway to increase capacity. In the next 12 months, we have two main projects coming online. The Vargem Grande project to start up in the coming months will add 15 million tonnes per year of high-quality iron ore capacity with a very low CapEx investment. The Capanema project is progressing well, with the pre-commissioning activities initiated, and will also bring an additional 15 million tonnes per year of high-quality ore capacity after the first half of 2025.

下一張投影片。我們的主要鐵礦石項目正在進行中，以增加產能。在接下來的 12 個月內，我們將有兩個主要項目上線。即將在未來幾個月啟動的 Vargem Grande 項目將以非常低的資本支出投資每年增加 1500 萬噸優質鐵礦石產能。Capanema專案進展順利，預調試活動已啟動，2025年上半年後還將額外帶來每年1,500萬噸的優質礦石產能。

Next slide. Advancing on our long-term strategy, we signed an important agreement to develop the concentration plant in Sohar, a project presented during Vale Day in December. The Sohar concentration plant will significantly increase the availability of high-quality pellet feed by 12 million tonnes per year. This will enable us to produce feed for direct reduction agglomerates, enhancing our operational capabilities and product offerings. This asset-light business model has a low investment obligation from Vale and an internal rate of return exceeding 30%, making it a highly accretive investment. This partnership will serve as a model for future Mega Hubs in the region and pave the way for a more sustainable future, allowing the production of metallics through low CO2 emission routes. It marks the first significant step towards new developments to come.

下一張投影片。為了推進我們的長期策略，我們簽署了一項重要協議，在蘇哈爾開發選礦廠，該項目在 12 月的淡水河谷日期間提出。蘇哈爾選礦廠每年將大幅增加 1,200 萬噸優質顆粒飼料的供應。這將使我們能夠生產直接還原團塊的飼料，從而增強我們的營運能力和產品供應。這種輕資產的商業模式對淡水河谷來說投資義務較低，內部報酬率超過30%，是高增值投資。這種夥伴關係將成為該地區未來巨型樞紐的典範，並為更永續的未來鋪平道路，允許透過低二氧化碳排放路線生產金屬。它標誌著邁向新發展的第一步。

Next, please. Now moving to the energy transition metals business. Looking at our copper performance, despite the headwinds in the quarter, we had a 5% increase in production in our plants in Brazil. On nickel, production reflected our planned maintenance strategy, and we are on track to deliver the production guidance for 2024. In Sudbury, improved mine performance resulted in reduced consumption of third-party feed and lower costs. We are confident that we are putting together a great team as seen on the appointment of Shaun as CEO, and taking the right steps to transform the energy transition metals business.

下一個。現在轉向能源過渡金屬業務。看看我們的銅表現，儘管本季遇到阻力，我們巴西工廠的產量仍增加了 5%。對於鎳，產量反映了我們計劃的維護策略，我們預計將提供 2024 年的生產指導。在薩德伯里，礦場績效的提高減少了第三方飼料的消耗並降低了成本。我們相信，我們正在組建一支優秀的團隊，正如肖恩被任命為執行長一樣，並採取正確的步驟來轉型能源過渡金屬業務。

Next slide. On our ESG strategy, we want to reduce our impacts generating positive outcomes for nature and people. For that, we have three main pillars to support our nature actions. First, keep the forest that we have standing. At Vale, we protect 11 hectares for every one hectare affected by our activities. In 2019, we committed to increasing protected areas by 500,000 hectares, and we are already at 35% of these targets. The second pillar is bioeconomy and create a business environment favorable to the conservation of native forests. And our third pillar is to fight extreme poverty, which will help avoid the illegal exploitation of land.

下一張投影片。在我們的 ESG 策略中，我們希望減少我們的影響，為自然和人類帶來正面成果。為此，我們有三個主要支柱來支持我們的自然行動。首先，保護我們現有的森林。在淡水河谷，每受我們的活動影響一公頃，我們就會保護 11 公頃。2019年，我們承諾增加50萬公頃保護區，目前已完成目標的35%。第二個支柱是生物經濟，創造有利於保護原生林的商業環境。我們的第三個支柱是消除極端貧困，這將有助於避免非法開發土地。

Our strategy led us to prioritize the adoption of TNFD and ISSB. We believe this will help all stakeholders to better understand and assess companies on their ESG progress.

我們的策略促使我們優先考慮採用 TNFD 和 ISSB。我們相信這將有助於所有利害關係人更了解和評估公司的 ESG 進度。

Before we move to our financial results, I would like to comment that we are delivering on our commitments. Our strong operational performance continues quarter after quarter, and we are in a very good shape for the second half of 2024.

在我們討論財務表現之前，我想先評論一下我們正在兌現我們的承諾。我們每季都保持強勁的營運業績，2024 年下半年我們的狀況非常好。

Now I'll pass the floor to Gustavo to comment on the financial performance, and I'll get back to you on the Q&A. Thank you.

現在我將請古斯塔沃評論財務業績，然後我將透過問答回覆您。謝謝。

Thanks, Eduardo, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with our EBITDA performance in the quarter. As you can see, our pro forma EBITDA reached $4 billion in Q2, driven by strong operational performance across all commodities. This is a result of our continued focus on operational excellence and asset reliability, and the record iron ore production in Q2 since 2018 is a testament of that.

謝謝，愛德華多，大家早安。讓我從本季的 EBITDA 表現開始。正如您所看到的，在所有商品強勁的營運表現的推動下，我們第二季的預估 EBITDA 達到 40 億美元。這是我們持續關注卓越營運和資產可靠性的結果，自 2018 年以來第二季創紀錄的鐵礦石產量就證明了這一點。

As part of our asset integrity program, we had a concentration of maintenance activities in Q2, particularly in April, which, together with inventory turnover effect and higher freight rates more than offset higher iron ore sales in the quarter. The good news is that our C1 significantly declined by the end of Q2, while rising volumes in the North, coupled with reduced maintenance works in the second half provide us with a solid run rate to deliver a strong operational performance in the coming quarters. I will go into the details of our C1 dynamics in the next slides. On a sequential basis, our pro forma EBITDA increased 15%, driven by 25% higher shipments, partially offset by higher operating costs and lower realized iron ore prices.

作為我們資產完整性計劃的一部分，我們在第二季度（特別是四月份）集中進行了維護活動，再加上庫存週轉效應和較高的運費，足以抵消本季度鐵礦石銷量的增長。好消息是，到第二季末，我們的C1 大幅下降，而北方的銷量不斷增加，加上下半年維護工作的減少，為我們提供了穩定的運行率，從而在未來幾個季度實現強勁的運營業績。我將在下一張投影片中詳細介紹 C1 動態。環比計算，我們的預估 EBITDA 增長了 15%，主要是由於出貨量增加了 25%，但營運成本上升和鐵礦石實現價格下降部分抵消了這一影響。

Now I would like to provide more color on our realized all-in premiums for the quarter. Vale has many sites and a broad product portfolio, ranging from high-silica products that trade at discounts compared to the benchmark to direct reduction pellets with a 67% iron ore content. Typically, high-silica products from the Southern and Southeastern systems are blended with Carajás to create our main product, BRBF. This is a premium product with low alumina and 5% silica content.

現在我想提供有關本季度已實現的全部保費的更多資訊。淡水河谷擁有眾多基地和廣泛的產品組合，從與基準相比以折扣價交易的高矽產品到鐵礦石含量為 67% 的直接還原球團礦。通常，來自南部和東南部系統的高矽產品與卡拉吉混合，形成我們的主要產品 BRBF。這是一種優質產品，氧化鋁含量低，二氧化矽含量為 5%。

As the average silica content naturally increases in the Southern and Southeastern systems, we have been using a higher proportion of Carajás in the blend, implying increased availability of high silica products to be sold directly in the market. This higher availability is even more pronounced in the first half of the year due to the production seasonality in the Northern system. On top of that, based on product availability, we evaluate commercial options cargo-by-cargo, aiming to maximize value, either by concentrating these products in China, selling them directly, or holding them as inventory.

由於南部和東南部系統的平均二氧化矽含量自然增加，我們在混合物中使用了更高比例的卡拉吉斯，這意味著直接在市場上銷售的高二氧化矽產品的可用性增加。由於北方系統的生產季節性，這種較高的可用性在上半年更為明顯。最重要的是，根據產品的可用性，我們逐一評估商業選擇，旨在透過將這些產品集中在中國、直接銷售或作為庫存持有來實現價值最大化。

In Q2, with quality discounts below historical levels, direct sales were the most attractive option with an EBITDA per tonne of around $20. As a consequence, our realized all-in was actually $0.1 per tonne negative despite 70% of the portfolio being sold with premiums above the benchmark. In the second half of 2024, we anticipate a reduction in the share of high-silica products in our mix due to the increased production in the North, supporting better premiums.

第二季度，由於品質折扣低於歷史水平，直接銷售是最具吸引力的選擇，每噸 EBITDA 約為 20 美元。因此，儘管 70% 的投資組合以高於基準的溢價出售，但我們實現的全押實際上是每噸負 0.1 美元。2024 年下半年，由於北方產量增加，我們預計高矽產品在我們產品組合中的份額將減少，從而支持更好的溢價。

More importantly, looking into the coming years, the share of high-silica products in the sales mix should gradually decline with the start-up of growth projects like Vargem Grande, Capanema and particularly, the S11D expansion. In addition, the development of concentration plants like the one in Sohar will also contribute to structurally reduce our share of high silica products.

更重要的是，展望未來幾年，隨著 Vargem Grande、Capanema 等成長項目的啟動，特別是 S11D 擴建，高矽產品在銷售組合中的份額應逐漸下降。此外，像蘇哈爾這樣的選礦廠的發展也將有助於從結構上減少我們的高矽產品份額。

Now let me turn to our cost performance. In iron ore, our C1 cash costs, excluding third-party purchases, was $24.9 per tonne in the quarter, mainly impacted by an inventory turnover effect as expected for a second quarter. This is how the inventory effect works. Vale has an extensive supply chain and around 30% of our sales in the quarter are composed by inventories from the previous quarter. Also, we note that production costs in Q1 are usually the highest in the year, given lower fixed cost dilution. As a result, in Q2, the difference in inventory cost impacted C1 by $1.8 per tonne sequentially. In this quarter's financial report, we have started to disclose our production costs per tonne in order to provide a better view on our C1 cash cost trends.

現在讓我談談我們的性價比。在鐵礦石方面，本季我們的 C1 現金成本（不包括第三方採購）為每噸 24.9 美元，主要受到第二季預期的庫存週轉效應的影響。這就是庫存效應的運作方式。淡水河谷擁有廣泛的供應鏈，本季約 30% 的銷售額由上一季的庫存組成。此外，我們注意到，由於固定成本稀釋度較低，第一季的生產成本通常是一年中最高的。因此，在第二季度，庫存成本差異對 C1 的影響為每噸 1.8 美元。在本季的財務報告中，我們開始揭露每噸的生產成本，以便更好地了解我們的 C1 現金成本趨勢。

We remain highly confident in achieving our guidance for 2024 of $21.5 to $23 per tonne. Our production cost in June, excluding inventory effects was already significantly down, reaching $22 per tonne. This is a solid indicator of our potential in the second half of the year with benefits from greater cost dilution, increased production in the Northern system, and reduced maintenance activities during the dry season.

我們對實現 2024 年每噸 21.5 美元至 23 美元的指導仍然充滿信心。排除庫存影響，我們 6 月的生產成本已經大幅下降，達到每噸 22 美元。這是我們下半年潛力的可靠指標，受益於更大的成本稀釋、北方系統的產量增加以及旱季維護活動的減少。

Now moving to our energy transition metals business. We were pleased to have another quarter of significant year-on-year reduction in our all-in cost in nickel, which were down 12% to $15,000 per tonne. This is mostly due to lower third-party feed purchases as well as by a reduction in expenses as we wrote down some high-cost inventories in Q2 '23. With Q1 and Q2 all-in cost averaging less than $15,000 per tonne, we are well positioned to reach our 2024 all-in guidance of $14,500 to $16,000 per tonne this year. In copper, all-in costs increased 18% year-on-year to about $3,600 per tonne, driven by increased unit COGS due to maintenance at Salobo and Sossego. All-in costs average about $3,500 per tonne in first half 2024, below our 2024 all-in guidance range of $4,000 to $4,500 per tonne.

現在轉向我們的能源過渡金屬業務。我們很高興鎳的總成本又比去年同期大幅下降了一個季度，下降了 12%，至每噸 15,000 美元。這主要是由於第三方飼料採購量減少以及我們在 23 年第二季度減記了一些高成本庫存而導致的費用減少。由於第一季和第二季的總成本平均低於每噸 15,000 美元，我們有能力在今年達到 2024 年每噸 14,500 美元至 16,000 美元的總成本指引。銅的總成本年增 18%，達到每噸約 3,600 美元，原因是薩洛博和索塞戈的維護導致單位銷貨成本增加。2024 年上半年，總成本平均約為每噸 3,500 美元，低於我們 2024 年每噸 4,000 至 4,500 美元的指引範圍。

Now moving on to cash generation. Free cash flow generation was $0.2 billion negative in Q2, impacted by a higher concentration of payments to suppliers, high execution of concession, contract obligations, and lower accounts receivable following the 4.3 million tonnes of iron ore sales accrued at the end of the quarter. We expect working capital to positively reverse in the second half. Still, our cash and cash equivalents increased by $3.1 billion in Q2. This increase was primarily driven by the $2.5 billion proceeds received following the Vale Base Metals partnership as well as by the issuance of $1 billion in bonds in June, mostly used for liability management in July.

現在轉向現金產生。第二季自由現金流量為負2 億美元，原因是向供應商付款的集中度較高、特許權執行情況較高、合約義務以及本季末鐵礦石銷售量達到430 萬噸後應收賬款減少。我們預計下半年營運資金將出現積極逆轉。儘管如此，我們的現金和現金等價物在第二季還是增加了 31 億美元。這一增長主要是由於與淡水河谷基本金屬合作夥伴關係後收到的 25 億美元收益以及 6 月份發行的 10 億美元債券（主要用於 7 月份的負債管理）推動的。

Our capital expenditures were flat quarter-on-quarter at $1.3 billion and we're on track to meet our CapEx guidance of around $6.5 billion for the year. Also yesterday, our Board of Directors approved a distribution of $1.6 billion in interest on capital to be paid in September this year, reinforcing our continued commitment to return value to our shareholders.

我們的資本支出環比持平，為 13 億美元，我們有望實現今年約 65 億美元的資本支出指引。同樣在昨天，我們的董事會批准了今年 9 月支付的 16 億美元資本利息的分配，強化了我們為股東回報價值的持續承諾。

Before moving on to the Q&A session, I would like to reinforce the key messages from today's call. Safety and dam management continue to be a key priority for Vale, and we are encouraged by the progress in our decharacterization program, having fully decharacterized the B3/B4 dam. Our strong operational performance continues to be seen quarter after quarter, and we are on track to deliver our production and cost guidance for the year. In fact, on iron ore, we are now very confident on reaching the top end of the 310 million to 320 million tonnes production guidance range.

在進入問答環節之前，我想強調一下今天電話會議的關鍵訊息。安全和大壩管理仍然是淡水河谷的首要任務，我們對去特徵計劃所取得的進展感到鼓舞，已經完全去特徵化了 B3/B4 大壩。我們每季都持續保持強勁的營運業績，並有望實現今年的生產和成本指引。事實上，就鐵礦石而言，我們現在非常有信心達到 3.1 億至 3.2 億噸產量指引範圍的上限。

On our strategic objective to be the supplier of choice for low carbon steel production, we are very pleased with the advancement of Sohar concentration partnership in Oman, which will serve as a pilot for the upcoming Mega Hub projects with very attractive returns. At VBM, our cost performance has been solid so far in the year, and we see room for continued improvement, particularly as the asset review plan is gradually executed.

我們的策略目標是成為低碳鋼生產的首選供應商，我們對阿曼蘇哈爾集中合作夥伴關係的進展感到非常高興，該合作夥伴關係將作為即將到來的巨型樞紐項目的試點，帶來非常有吸引力的回報。在VBM，今年到目前為止，我們的成本績效一直很穩定，並且我們看到了持續改進的空間，特別是隨著資產審查計劃的逐步執行。

Lastly, we remain highly committed to disciplined capital allocation, controlling expanded net debt within our target, taking advantage of asset-light growth opportunities and rewarding shareholders with solid remuneration through dividends and buybacks. Now I would like to open the call for questions. Thank you.

最後，我們仍然高度致力於嚴格的資本配置，將擴大的淨債務控制在目標範圍內，利用輕資產成長機會，並透過股息和回購為股東提供豐厚的回報。現在我想開始提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Daniel Sasson, Itaú BBA.

（操作員說明）Daniel Sasson，Itañ BBA。

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions. My first question, maybe to Gustavo. If you could please provide us an update on the ongoing negotiations with the government regarding the resettlement for Samarco, where we are right now, the back and forth with the government. Where do you think the most important points of this agreement are, that would help us. I mean I think we -- it could be an important catalyst for stock price performance once this gets solved.

大家好。早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題，也許是問古斯塔沃。如果可以的話，請向我們提供有關與政府就薩馬科（我們現在所處的位置）重新安置問題正在進行的談判的最新情況，以及與政府的反复談判。您認為協議最重要的要點在哪裡，這對我們有幫助。我的意思是，我認為一旦這個問題得到解決，它可能會成為股價表現的重要催化劑。

And my second question is regarding your portfolio mix. You mentioned that you expect 65% of high-quality products in your portfolio in the second half versus 59% in the first half with high silica declining to 10% of sales. Regarding specifically your strategy for the high-silica portion, do you -- the decline expect ahead comes on the back of reduced inventories of that type of product? Or do you see maybe discounts increasing for that portion? My point is, is that a matter of what you have of high silica products to be sold being lower or less volumes than you had in the beginning of the year? Or that reflects your view that high silica products should demand a higher discount in the second half of this year versus the first half? Thank you so much.

我的第二個問題是關於你的投資組合。您提到，預計下半年您的產品組合中將有 65% 的優質產品，而上半年為 59%，其中高矽含量下降至銷售額的 10%。具體到你們對高矽部分的策略，你們預期未來的下降是否是由於該類型產品的庫存減少所致？或者您認為該部分的折扣可能會增加嗎？我的觀點是，這是否與您銷售的高矽產品數量比年初更低或更少有關？或者這反映了您的觀點，即高矽產品在今年下半年應該比上半年需要更高的折扣？太感謝了。

Good morning, Sasson, Gustavo here. So I'll take the first one and then Spinelli will go over your second question. So Look on Mariana, we continue to be optimistic about the ability and the possibility to settle the agreement. All parties are highly engaged. The view is that in the next -- we continue to have a view that in the next couple of months, we'll be able to reach a resolution, both in terms of the actual agreement, the text associated with the agreement, and also the key financial terms. So this is important for the company, and we see a momentum from all parties to be able to sit down and settle this. So we are optimistic in our expectations that in the next couple of months we'll be able to resolve this. So I'll pass the second question to Spinelli.

早安，薩森，古斯塔沃。我將回答第一個問題，然後斯皮內利將討論你的第二個問題。所以看看瑪麗安娜，我們繼續對解決協議的能力和可能性持樂觀態度。各方都高度參與。我們的觀點是，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們仍然認為，我們將能夠就實際協議、與協議相關的文本以及關鍵財務條款。因此，這對公司來說很重要，我們看到各方都願意坐下來解決這個問題。因此，我們樂觀地期望在接下來的幾個月內我們將能夠解決這個問題。那我會把第二個問題轉交給斯皮內利。

Thank you, Daniel. Structurally, we have the high silica in our portfolio. After Brumadinho, we have this imbalance in our mix. So after -- as you saw in the initial remarks, after the ramp-up of S11D, we'll have the main component of the BRBF, that's IOCJ. So we can reduce -- minimize this kind of product standalone. So you asked me what is the reason we are doing this? So as we saw in the initial remarks, we can't -- we just don't sell it. But we have a market for that. So until May, we sell directly, the gap was really widened when you compare the high grade and the low grade.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。從結構上來說，我們的產品組合中含有高矽含量。在布魯馬迪尼奧之後，我們的陣容出現了這種不平衡。因此，正如您在最初的評論中所看到的，在 S11D 啟動之後，我們將擁有 BRBF 的主要組成部分，即 IOCJ。所以我們可以減少──最小化這種獨立的產品。所以你問我我們這樣做的原因是什麼？因此，正如我們在最初的評論中所看到的，我們不能——我們只是不出售它。但我們有這個市場。所以一直到5月份，我們都是直銷，高品級和低品級的差距確實拉大了。

Since the end of May, we start to concentrate the most we can. So we have a capacity to produce 18 million to 20 million tonnes in China. We have a remaining high silica to handle so that's the reason why we are -- we expect to have 10% in our portfolio. That's the same level we expect for next year. And with the -- always saying that depends on market conditions, if we have a better discount for high silica, we can sell directly. That's the influence. So just to set your model, you may consider this 10%. And gradually, in '26, '27, we must go to 0%.

從五月底開始，我們就開始盡可能地集中精神。所以我們在中國有生產1800萬噸到2000萬噸的能力。我們還有剩餘的高二氧化矽需要處理，這就是我們的原因——我們預計我們的投資組合中有 10%。這與我們預計明年的水平相同。而且總是說這取決於市場狀況，如果我們對高矽有更好的折扣，我們可以直接出售。這就是影響力。因此，為了設定您的模型，您可以考慮這 10%。逐漸地，在 26 年、27 年，我們必須達到 0%。

Rodolfo Angele, JPMorgan.

魯道夫·安吉勒，摩根大通。

Okay, hi, good morning. My two questions are the following. First, it's really good to see management positive and the evolution of costs and making sure guidance is reached. But this is a theme that's been more and more recurring when we speak to investors, and I just wanted to hear from you, aside from things such as higher volume, which is seasonally the rule in the second half of the year, particularly in the third quarter. What is this structural? What can be done? What's in your hands that we can see to make the path of costs coming down as expected and we hope eventually even lowering into '25 and onwards. So that's question number one.

好的，嗨，早安。我的兩個問題如下。首先，很高興看到管理層的積極態度以及成本的演變並確保達成指導。但這是一個在我們與投資者交談時越來越頻繁出現的主題，我只是想聽聽你的意見，除了交易量增加之類的事情之外，這是下半年的季節性規則，特別是在第三季。這是什麼結構？可以做什麼？我們可以看到您手中的東西可以使成本按預期下降，我們希望最終能降低到 25 年及以後。這是第一個問題。

The second is a bit more about where we're standing prices versus the strategy -- successful strategy on the stabilization of the iron ore business. Of course, as per Spinelli's answer right now, the commercial strategy will follow market conditions, right? So what we've been seeing is an effort to lower, to fight back seasonality. And we saw, since first quarter, very strong production reports. And of course, we are entering the period of even higher volumes. But how should we think about volumes in a scenario where prices as today are slightly below $100 per tonne. Does that change anything? And how do you think about it? What can we expect if prices continue for a while as soft as they are right now? Thank you very much.

第二個更多的是關於我們的價格與策略的關係——穩定鐵礦石業務的成功策略。當然，根據斯皮內利現在的回答，商業策略會根據市場情況而定，對嗎？因此，我們看到的是努力降低和應對季節性。自第一季以來，我們看到了非常強勁的生產報告。當然，我們正進入銷量更高的時期。但在目前價格略低於每噸 100 美元的情況下，我們應該如何考慮成交量。這會改變什麼嗎？您對此有何看法？如果價格像現在一樣疲軟一段時間，我們能期待什麼？非常感謝。

So Rodolfo, Gustavo -- good morning, Gustavo here. So I'll do the first one again and Spinelli will go over the second one. So certainly, I think we've been the last, call it, two years looking structurally at our cost base. And implementing a series of initiatives being new technologies in the field, revisiting process, increasing the share of preventive maintenance as compared to corrective maintenances. All of that over time, should make our costs more efficient. And so we are seeing this already as we look into the numbers.

魯道夫，古斯塔沃——早安，古斯塔沃在這裡。所以我會再做一次第一個，斯皮內利將討論第二個。所以，當然，我認為我們已經是過去兩年從結構上審視我們的成本基礎了。並在該領域實施一系列新技術、重新審視流程、增加預防性維護相對於糾正性維護的份額。隨著時間的推移，所有這些都會使我們的成本更有效率。因此，當我們研究數字時，我們已經看到了這一點。

Certainly, the dilution effect for Vale given the expanded fleet that we have, it's super helpful, right? The ability for us to bring volume with very limited capital helps a lot. But we are not just counting on that. We're also looking structurally in areas where we think we can extract more value from the business. And we are seeing results already as we look into the business. So I'll pass the second question to Spinelli.

當然，鑑於我們擁有擴大的船隊，淡水河谷的稀釋效應非常有幫助，對吧？我們能夠以非常有限的資本帶來銷量，這對我們有很大幫助。但我們不僅僅指望這一點。我們還在結構上尋找我們認為可以從業務中獲得更多價值的領域。當我們研究該業務時，我們已經看到了結果。那我會把第二個問題轉交給斯皮內利。

Rodolfo, thank you for your question. So we don't see a support in the cost curve for a major decline at this moment. Definitely, we have a pressure of inflation, freight, and now we see starting the impact coming from the green world, and that's the pattern we have. We have our long-term price of around 90%. So this is the first direct answer for your question. But one thing you should pay attention. So we see a balanced market this -- at this moment. One of the micro indicators that everybody ask us about is the inventory -- iron ore inventory in the port side.

魯道夫，謝謝你的提問。因此，我們目前認為成本曲線不支援大幅下降。當然，我們面臨通貨膨脹、貨運的壓力，現在我們看到綠色世界開始產生影響，這就是我們所擁有的模式。我們的長期價格約為 90%。所以這是對你的問題的第一個直接答案。但有一件事你應該注意。因此，我們此時此刻看到了一個平衡的市場。大家問我們的微觀指標之一就是庫存——港口側鐵礦石庫存。

I want to drag your attention for some information, actual information about this. Firstly, we've been, Vale, not only Vale, our competitors also, changing the way we are doing business. So we are improving the production of BRBF. So we have a nonoperational or non-sale -- non for sale inventory. Our competitors are screening the products, so increasing the blending. We are increasing the concentration now in the second half. So this 160 when you compared to last year is like 145. And there's another point that most of the increase came from low-grade ores, as you mentioned, we have the mantra of margin over volume. But if you pay attention in the lower level of IOCJ, and that's the reason the gap is widening, the low-grade ore and high-grade ore. The premium in Carajás is higher now. So again, that's the balance.

我想提請您注意一些信息，有關此的實際信息。首先，淡水河谷，不僅是淡水河谷，還有我們的競爭對手，我們一直在改變我們開展業務的方式。所以我們正在改進BRBF的生產。因此，我們有非營運或非銷售的庫存。我們的競爭對手正在篩選產品，因此增加了混合。下半年我們正在增加集中度。因此，與去年相比，這個 160 相當於 145。還有一點，大部分增量來自低品位礦石，正如您所提到的，我們有利潤大於數量的口頭禪。但如果你關注IOCJ的較低水平，這就是低品位礦石和高品位礦石差距拉大的原因。卡拉加斯的保費現在更高。再說一遍，這就是平衡。

As a whole, we see the market balance. Pay attention that the port inventory is not a proxy directly at this moment with the demand and we should track this instability, or we feel China all the time. We like to pray for extra stimulus, but we have a very strong new normal in China. That is supported by manufacturing. Export is something every time we are worried about because we don't see yet the countries fighting against some product, but it's something that is structured. We have a new global, new ties in these geopolitics. So for this year, so far, so good. We see China with this level of production. For next year, we see a stability in terms of demand. But obviously, we need some more figures about how can we reduce this, our concerns about the decline of properties in China. But so far, so good for '24 and '25, we are in a good shape in the balanced market.

總體而言，我們看到市場平衡。請注意，目前港口庫存並不能直接代表需求，我們應該追蹤這種不穩定性，否則我們會一直感覺到中國。我們喜歡祈禱額外的刺激，但中國的新常態非常強烈。這是由製造業支持的。出口是我們每次擔心的事情，因為我們還沒有看到國家對某些產品進行打擊，但這是有結構的。我們在這些地緣政治中建立了新的全球、新的連結。所以今年到目前為止，一切都很好。我們看到中國有這種生產水準。明年，我們預計需求將保持穩定。但顯然，我們需要更多數據來了解如何減少對中國房地產下滑的擔憂。但到目前為止，24 年和 25 年的情況非常好，我們在平衡的市場中處於良好的狀態。

Myles Allsop, UBS.

邁爾斯·奧爾索普，瑞銀集團。

Great. Thank you very much for the question. So a couple of things. First of all, on M&A. Obviously, there are some assets available, nickel assets available in Brazil. Just wondering how you're thinking about M&A, is this the right point to be in the cycle to be picking up assets in that commodity. And then secondly, could you just talk a bit more about value over volume. So if China is softer than you expect from a demand perspective, at what price point do you expect the majors, including yourself to start curtailing production to support pricing? Thank you.

偉大的。非常感謝你的提問。有幾件事。首先，關於併購。顯然，巴西有一些可用的資產，鎳資產。只是想知道您如何看待併購，這是在該商品週期中收購資金的正確時機嗎？其次，您能多談談價值與數量的關係嗎？因此，如果中國從需求角度來看比您預期的更疲軟，那麼您預計包括您在內的主要企業會在什麼價格點開始減產以支撐價格？謝謝。

Myles, Gustavo here. So for that particular question on nickel in Brazil, we are not looking at those. And I think the way we always articulate, and this is the way we think about M&As, as you know, we have a very large endowment at Vale. So our preference has been to develop our own endowment in the commodities that we like and the ones that we operate well, and looking at opportunities that are win-win type opportunities. You've seen us doing a deal last year buying 15% of Minas-Rio, with the possibility to go to 30%. So those are the things we like. It's highly accretive and it's right there at what we want to do long term in terms of a strategic position. But for those particular assets that we just mentioned, we are not looking at that. So I'll turn to Spinelli for the second question.

邁爾斯，古斯塔沃在這裡。因此，對於巴西有關鎳的特定問題，我們不會關注這些問題。我認為我們總是表達的方式，這就是我們思考併購的方式，如你所知，我們在淡水河谷擁有非常大的捐贈。因此，我們的偏好是在我們喜歡的商品和我們經營良好的商品上發展我們自己的禀賦，並尋找雙贏的機會。你已經看到我們去年達成了一項交易，購買了米納斯-裡約 15% 的股份，並且有可能達到 30%。這些就是我們喜歡的東西。它具有高度的增值性，並且就戰略地位而言，它正是我們想要長期做的事情。但對於我們剛才提到的那些特定資產，我們並沒有考慮到這一點。那我將請斯皮內利回答第二個問題。

Thank you, Myles, for the question. So two sides here. The first, the cost curve. We -- if you move lower than $100 to $90, we see 100 million tonnes outside of market. So we really see a support. We don't see a support in the balance to the market below that. On the other hand, in the demand side, you mentioned China. We have a positive eye on China when we see this new normal that we call the Chinese economy resiliency. Again, the new normal is based on manufacturing. It's based on export. We see infrastructure play an important role offsetting the decline of properties. Obviously, we see -- we may pay attention for two main points. That's our concern. And probably you're concerned that is the level of export, mainly the steel directly, for us, we see as a temporarily part, but today is reaching almost 100 million tonnes.

謝謝邁爾斯提出的問題。所以這裡有兩個面向。第一，成本曲線。如果價格低於 100 美元至 90 美元，我們會看到市場外有 1 億噸。所以我們確實看到了支持。我們認為低於該水準的市場平衡不會受到支撐。另一方面，在需求方面，你提到了中國。當我們看到這種我們稱之為中國經濟彈性的新常態時，我們對中國持正面的態度。同樣，新常態是以製造業為基礎的。它以出口為基礎。我們認為基礎設施在抵消房地產衰退方面發揮著重要作用。顯然，我們看到——我們可能會關注兩個要點。這是我們關心的問題。也許您擔心的是出口水平，主要是直接出口鋼鐵，對我們來說，我們認為這是暫時的一部分，但今天已達到近 1 億噸。

On the other hand, we have a new geopolitics tie. So we don't see the same ties as we've been seeing in the last years. Now we have other players, big players that can support demand from China. And we need to remind that ex-China is growing this year 4%. Emerging markets, including Southeast Asia, India, Middle East is growing really high. So all of this together, we have to pay attention in terms of inflation, how the countries are accepting these new products from China, and it's so far so good. But don't see domestic market is declining due to the properties. But all this mix is supporting this high demand, at least for this year, next year in our analysis.

另一方面，我們有新的地緣政治連結。因此，我們沒有看到與過去幾年相同的連結。現在我們有其他參與者，可以支持中國需求的大參與者。我們需要提醒的是，除中國以外的地區今年成長了 4%。包括東南亞、印度、中東在內的新興市場成長非常快。因此，所有這些加在一起，我們必須關注通貨膨脹，各國如何接受這些來自中國的新產品，到目前為止一切都很好。但不認為國內市場因房地產而下滑。但所有這些組合都在支持這種高需求，至少在我們的分析中是今年和明年。

Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

卡洛斯·德阿爾巴，摩根士丹利。

Hello, good morning, everyone. Thank you very much. A couple of questions on my end. One is, if -- Gustavo, any updates on the railway concession agreement? It's similar to Mariana, that is a very important driver -- potential catalyst for the stock to move higher. So any update will be very good. And also, you mentioned that in your prepared remarks that the iron ore cash cost declined significantly or did much better in June or towards the end of the quarter. Can you share with us what was the level of cash costs in June? Just to have a sense of the pace in order to model the trend in the second half of the year.

大家早安。非常感謝。我最後有幾個問題。一是古斯塔沃，鐵路特許經營協議有更新嗎？它與瑪麗安娜類似，這是一個非常重要的驅動因素——股票上漲的潛在催化劑。所以任何更新都會非常好。此外，您在準備好的發言中提到，鐵礦石現金成本在 6 月或本季末大幅下降或表現較好。您能否與我們分享一下 6 月份的現金成本水準是多少？只是為了了解節奏，以便為下半年的趨勢建模。

Carlos, let me do the second one, and then Spinelli will go over the concession renewal discussions. So it was $22 per tonne in June. So April, for us, we had some higher maintenance cost, which has impacted our performance in the quarter overall. But looking into June, we -- the performance improved substantially. It's down to $20 -- it was down to $22. That's what makes us feel highly confident in our ability to deliver within the guidance range of $21.5 to $23 with a strong performance in the second half of the year.

卡洛斯，讓我做第二件事，然後斯皮內利將回顧特許權續簽的討論。因此 6 月的價格為每噸 22 美元。因此，四月份，對我們來說，我們的維護成本較高，這影響了我們整個季度的業績。但展望 6 月份，我們的業績大幅改善。價格跌至 20 美元——跌至 22 美元。這讓我們對下半年在 21.5 美元至 23 美元的指導範圍內實現強勁表現的能力充滿信心。

Hi, Carlos. Thank you for (technical difficulty)

嗨，卡洛斯。謝謝你（技術難度）

I'm going to take here because I think he lost his mic. So Carlos, we continue to evolve. We don't have yet the final resolution to it. The conversations are, as we've mentioned in some of our market communications, highly advanced. There are certain regulatory procedures that needs to be followed. And so we are waiting for those to be able to sell. We appreciate it's an important topic for our shareholders. And similar to Mariana, we think it's going to get resolved within the next couple of months.

我之所以選擇這裡是因為我認為他丟了麥克風。所以卡洛斯，我們繼續發展。我們還沒有最終的解決方案。正如我們在一些市場溝通中提到的，這些對話非常先進。需要遵循某些監管程序。所以我們正在等待那些能夠出售。我們意識到這對我們的股東來說是一個重要的主題。與瑪麗安娜類似，我們認為這個問題將在未來幾個月內解決。

Leonardo Correa, BTG.

萊昂納多·科雷亞，BTG。

Hello, everyone. Good morning. Yeah. So a couple of questions on my side. The first one on volumes, right? So there has been relevant progress, right, on iron ore production over the past quarters. 2024 seems to be in the bag, right? As Eduardo mentioned in the introduction, it's -- I mean, at the upper range of the guidance, which is welcome, right? Looking out to 2025, I understand that you guys can't give precise guidance yet. We're going to have to wait for Vale Day, but given that you have Vargem Grande, which is progressing well, it's supposed to add 15 million tonnes of additional capacity. And also Capanema, which is also another 15 million tonnes of capacity.

大家好。早安.是的。我這邊有幾個問題。第一個卷，對吧？因此，過去幾季鐵礦石生產取得了相關進展。 2024年似乎已經是板上釘釘的事了，對吧？正如愛德華多在介紹中提到的那樣，我的意思是，處於指導的上限，這是受歡迎的，對吧？展望2025年，我知道你們還不能給予準確的指導。我們將不得不等待 Vale Day，但考慮到 Vargem Grande 專案進展順利，預計將增加 1500 萬噸的額外產能。還有Capanema，這也是另外1500萬噸的產能。

Just wanted to hear you on how you think production can shape up 2025, if you have any information, I think, can help because everything of the story, at least in my view, depends on how production evolved -- can evolve from here. And obviously, that's going to have a big impact on fixed cost dilution, right? So trying to understand the direction of volume is, I think, essential.

只是想聽聽您對製作如何塑造 2025 年的看法，如果您有任何訊息，我認為可以有所幫助，因為故事的一切，至少在我看來，取決於製作如何發展——可以從這裡發展。顯然，這將對固定成本稀釋產生重大影響，對吧？因此，我認為嘗試理解成交量的方向是至關重要的。

The second point, for Gustavo, still on the cash return topic, right, Gustavo, we still haven't spoken about the theme yet in the conversation or I think we spoke less than we have in the past. I mean it was a good surprise to see net debt levels reduced this quarter given the proceeds from base metals. We're now under $15 billion of expanded net debt, which from hearing you over the past several quarters and years, it seems that close to $20 billion, you were uncomfortable, and Vale was deviating a bit from the average of the industry, right, which was running below Vale on net debt to EBITDA. Now you're getting closer, you're at the low of the range in terms of target for you.

第二點，對於古斯塔沃來說，還是關於現金回饋的話題，對吧，古斯塔沃，我們在談話中還沒有談到這個主題，或者我認為我們說的比過去少了。我的意思是，考慮到基本金屬的收益，本季淨債務水準下降是一個很大的驚喜。我們現在的擴大淨債務低於 150 億美元，從過去幾個季度和幾年的情況來看，似乎接近 200 億美元，你感到不舒服，而且淡水河谷有點偏離行業平均水平，對吧其EBITDA 淨負債低於淡水河谷。現在你越來越接近了，就你的目標而言，你處於範圍的低點。

So my question is, what needs to happen for Vale to move back to paying extraordinary dividends from here? I mean what needs -- what do you need to see? You need to see iron ore prices rebound? Or would you eventually be looking to increase leverage maybe to the middle of the range? Do you still need some macro, what exactly is weighing on the decision process of Vale not paying the extraordinary? Those are the questions. Thank you very much, guys.

所以我的問題是，淡水河谷需要做什麼才能從現在開始支付特別股息？我的意思是需要什麼——你需要看到什麼？您需要看到鐵礦石價格反彈嗎？或者您最終會尋求將槓桿增加到該範圍的中間嗎？您還需要一些宏觀的訊息，到底是什麼在影響淡水河穀不支付特別費用的決策過程？這些就是問題。非常感謝你們。

Thanks, Leo. So I'll cover both. Yeah, look, I think it's fair to say that the trend is upwards, right? So we are bringing those projects online. I mean we've talked about that at Vale Day, almost 50 million tonnes, if you sum the three of them. They are progressing super well within the timeline that we had defined. So you should expect us to be able to continue to post a positive trend towards that long-term goal of being between 340 to 360 by 2026, right? So that's fair to assume that. And certainly, the details, as we usually do, we'll provide at Vale Day, but the trend is certainly positive in that regard -- in addition to the positive trend in the stability of our own operations, right, which have been performing well lately. So that's a positive news, we think.

謝謝，利奧。所以我將涵蓋兩者。是的，你看，我認為可以公平地說趨勢是向上的，對吧？因此，我們正在將這些項目上線。我的意思是，我們在淡水河谷日討論過這個問題，如果將三者相加的話，接近 5000 萬噸。他們在我們定義的時間表內進展得非常好。因此，您應該期望我們能夠繼續保持積極的趨勢，實現到 2026 年達到 340 到 360 的長期目標，對嗎？所以這樣的假設是公平的。當然，正如我們通常所做的那樣，我們將在淡水河谷日提供詳細信息，但在這方面，趨勢肯定是積極的——除了我們自己的業務穩定性方面的積極趨勢外，對，我們一直在表現最近很好。我們認為這是一個積極的消息。

In terms of the dividend, extraordinary capital allocation, look, we -- you know the way we think about it, and we are always looking for ways to remunerate our shareholders within a very disciplined capital allocation framework. Certainly, there are a few things we want to see first. One is how the second half performs in terms of prices. That's important to see where we're going to land by year-end and also see how especially Mariana evolves. And then as we settle, we want to have that clarity first before making any further commitments. So those are important topics as part of our overall capital allocation framework that we want to see before we commit eventually incremental remuneration to our shareholders.

就股利、非凡資本配置而言，你知道我們的想法，我們一直在尋找在非常嚴格的資本配置框架內回報股東的方法。當然，有一些事情我們想先看到。一是下半年的價格表現如何。重要的是要了解我們到年底將達到什麼目標，並了解瑪麗安娜（Mariana）如何發展。然後，當我們和解時，我們希望在做出任何進一步的承諾之前先明確這一點。因此，這些都是我們整體資本配置架構的重要主題，在我們最終向股東承諾增量薪酬之前，我們希望看到這些主題。

Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

卡約·裡貝羅，美國銀行。

Okay, good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question, and I'm going back to your production guidance for the year, right. Second quarter numbers were quite strong. As you mentioned earlier in the call, your confident of attaining that upper end of the guidance. But it even seems feasible that you could surpass, right, that upper end of the guidance, right? So my question is, could you revise that guidance of eventually this year? And what are you looking for in terms of factors/events that would give you that confidence to do so? And are these factors/events more market related or operational in nature? And is there a particular timing that you would see as more likely to take this decision or not?

好的，早安。謝謝你給我的機會。所以我的第一個問題，我要回到你們今年的生產指導，對吧。第二季的數據相當強勁。正如您之前在電話會議中提到的，您有信心達到指導的上限。但你甚至可以超越指導的上限，對吧？所以我的問題是，您能否最終修改今年的指導方針？您正在尋找哪些因素/事件可以讓您有信心這樣做？這些因素/事件本質上與市場相關還是更具操作性？您是否認為某個特定時機更有可能做出此決定？

And then my second question is a follow-up on the ongoing railroad concession renewal negotiations. The concession renewal process generally involves an upfront payment followed by some commitments to deliver investments in the railroad over time. So I just wanted to see whether you can provide any color. Once this agreement is struck, if that initial payment would be a single installment or several installments, right, followed by a CapEx commitment on the railroads over time or how we should think about this? Thank you.

我的第二個問題是正在進行的鐵路特許權續約談判的後續行動。特許權續約過程通常涉及預付款，然後是隨著時間的推移交付鐵路投資的一些承諾。所以我只是想看看你們是否可以提供任何顏色。一旦達成協議，如果初始付款是一次分期付款還是分期付款，對吧，然後隨著時間的推移對鐵路進行資本支出承諾，或者我們應該如何考慮這一點？謝謝。

So Caio, thanks for your question, Gustavo here. Yes, I mean, if you look at year-to-date, we are performing well and better than last year, in fact. But we want to see how the next couple of months evolve. And then if there is an opportunity for us to do better, we'll do and we'll certainly update the market as we feel comfortable to update those numbers. But for now, the team is highly focused on delivering what we committed. And given everything we've seen; performance is super strong. Certainly, top end of the guidance is highly achievable for us. And if there's an opportunity to revisit, we will do in its due course.

Caio，謝謝你的提問，Gustavo 這裡。是的，我的意思是，如果你看看今年迄今為止，我們的表現實際上很好，而且比去年更好。但我們想看看接下來的幾個月會如何發展。然後，如果我們有機會做得更好，我們會做，而且我們一定會更新市場，因為我們願意更新這些數字。但目前，團隊高度專注於兌現我們的承諾。鑑於我們所看到的一切；性能超強。當然，我們完全可以實現指導的最高目標。如果有機會再次訪問，我們將在適當的時候進行。

I think in terms of the details of the concession, I think it's early to say. Those are confidential conversations. We want to keep it within those dialogues. But certainly, we are looking at how any settlement fits into our cash flow projections and having the ability to honor those commitments, right? So that's super important in our conversations, but it is something we are still keeping within the negotiation team.

我認為就讓步的細節而言，我認為現在說還為時過早。這些都是機密談話。我們希望將其保留在這些對話中。但當然，我們正在研究任何解決方案如何符合我們的現金流量預測，並有能力履行這些承諾，對嗎？因此，這在我們的對話中非常重要，但我們仍在談判團隊中保留這一點。

Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.

馬西奧·法里德，高盛。

Hi, good morning, all. Thanks for the time. I have a quick follow-up here. Firstly, I think Spinelli talked a lot about the current situation in China in terms of where premiums and discounts are, but I was trying to understand how should we think about it in the long term? There is clearly upward trend in terms of demand for high-grade products and agglomerates as well. And obviously, Vale is definitely going increase it all in that direction as well, right? I'm just trying to understand from you, I think in longer term, obviously, Simandou coming online in our numbers, for capacity potentially only '27, '28 but still significant high-grade volumes. There is obviously a push for the Australian to also develop their own agglomerate with their own fines as well.

嗨，大家早安。謝謝你的時間。我在這裡有一個快速跟進。首先，我認為斯皮內利談到了中國目前的情況，即升貼水在哪裡，但我試圖了解從長遠來看我們應該如何思考？高檔產品和建築群的需求也呈現明顯上升趨勢。顯然，淡水河谷肯定也會朝這個方向增加這一切，對吧？我只是想向您了解，我認為從長遠來看，顯然，Simandou 將在我們的數據中上線，容量可能只有“27”、“28”，但仍然具有重要的高品位產量。顯然，澳洲人也希望透過自己的罰款來發展自己的企業集團。

So how should we think about the balance for premiums in the long term, given a scenario of growing demand. And maybe on the base metals side, obviously, nickel better quarter from a cost perspective, copper, not so much. How should we think about it? I think it's been volatile from our sourcing perspective and how much third party is being used or not, especially in Canada. But now if Sossego and Onça Puma back online, Salobo. How should we think about the momentum for cost of the base metals side, please? Thank you very much.

那麼，考慮到需求不斷增長的情況，我們應該如何考慮長期保費的平衡。也許在賤金屬方面，顯然，從成本角度來看，鎳的表現更好，而銅則不然。我們該如何思考呢？我認為從我們的採購角度以及使用或不使用第三方的程度來看，情況一直不穩定，尤其是在加拿大。但現在如果索塞戈和奧薩美洲獅重新上線，薩洛博。請問我們該如何看待基本金屬方面的成本動能？非常感謝。

Thank you, Marcio, for your question. So our long-term strategy remain intact. We strongly believe that we're starting to face segmentation of the market, as you mentioned, and with high-grade ores, agglomerated products, if you see today, the pellet feed for high-grade ore or direct reduction is -- we may consider that a very strategic material in the world. It's not only about copper, but high-grade ore is very rare. And we still see a gap in demand and production in the following years.

謝謝馬西奧提出的問題。因此，我們的長期策略保持不變。我們堅信，正如您所提到的，我們正開始面臨市場細分，對於高品位礦石、團聚產品，如果您今天看到，高品位礦石或直接還原的球團飼料是——我們可能會認為這是世界上非常具有戰略意義的材料。不只銅，高品位礦石也非常稀有。我們仍然看到未來幾年的需求和生產有缺口。

You mentioned our competitors. They don't have ore that can be concentrated to reach these high-quality ores. So direct reduction is a trend. Natural gas is a trend. So following this, we see our Mega Hubs strategy going forward. This announcement today about the mega hub in Sohar, actually is the first mega hub, full mega hub already done. So we are now -- we have to build this capacity to concentrate. But there, we have the port, and we have -- we can handle the products and we can produce the agglomerate. So that's the first mega hub.

您提到了我們的競爭對手。他們沒有可以濃縮的礦石來獲得這些優質礦石。所以直接減量是一種趨勢。天然氣是一種趨勢。因此，在此之後，我們看到了我們的巨型樞紐策略的發展。今天關於蘇哈爾大型樞紐的公告實際上是第一個大型樞紐，完整的大型樞紐已經建成。所以我們現在——我們必須培養這種集中註意力的能力。但在那裡，我們有港口，我們可以處理產品，我們可以生產團聚物。這是第一個大型樞紐。

In the US, it's moving fast after the grant that we got in the first half. And so far, other regions like Oman or Abu Dhabi and Saudi is moving really fast. And actually, in a few hours, we're going to receive here the Minister of Saudi to talk about this. Minister of Industry and Mining. So we're really confident about this trend and remain intact in our strategy.

在美國，我們在上半年獲得撥款後進展迅速。到目前為止，阿曼、阿布達比和沙烏地阿拉伯等其他地區的發展速度非常快。事實上，幾個小時後，我們將在這裡接待沙烏地阿拉伯部長來討論這個問題。工業和礦業部長。因此，我們對這一趨勢非常有信心，並保持我們的策略不變。

On nickel, the trend should continue to improve with Sudbury mine volumes continuing to improve. In fact, we're up near 20% increase as we track into June. So good news is in Sudbury is we've got a lot more mine feed. So that's a real positive. I just came back from Voisey's Bay, the trends there are very good. We should continue to improve with Onça Puma, getting the second furnace up. So I think the trends are all positive on the nickel front. We've got to keep working hard at Manitoba, getting the place settled and looking at what we can do to reduce the services that we can probably do from other places. So we're working on all of those fronts.

就鎳而言，隨著薩德伯里礦產量的持續改善，這一趨勢應該會繼續改善。事實上，隨著我們進入 6 月份，我們的增幅接近 20%。薩德伯里的好消息是我們有更多的礦井飼料。所以這是一個真正的正面因素。我剛從 Voisey's Bay 回來，那裡的趨勢非常好。我們應該繼續改進 Onña Puma，啟動第二個熔爐。所以我認為鎳方面的趨勢都是正面的。我們必須繼續在曼尼托巴省努力工作，解決這個問題，並考慮我們可以做些什麼來減少我們可以從其他地方提供的服務。因此，我們正在所有這些方面開展工作。

On the copper side, Salobo is the key. It is impacted by grades. If we can open the pit up a bit more and continue to improve our pit productivities, we can probably do a little bit more on the grade front, but that will take a little bit of time. It will depend on our in-pit productivity during the year. And Sossego is about settling post the restart and making sure that we've got the feed mix right during the course of the next 18 months. Thanks.

在銅方面，薩洛博是關鍵。是受成績影響的。如果我們能夠將礦坑打開更多一點並繼續提高礦坑生產力，我們可能可以在等級方面做得更多一點，但這需要一點時間。這將取決於我們今年的礦坑生產力。Sossego 的任務是解決重啟後的問題，並確保我們在接下來的 18 個月內獲得正確的飼料組合。謝謝。

Yuri Pereira, Santander.

尤里·佩雷拉，桑坦德銀行。

Hi guys, thanks for having my question. Could you talk about depletion, not only for Vale, but also for the industry. I mean, how many tonnes you think are out of the market per year only from depletion? Thank you very much.

大家好，感謝您提出我的問題。您能否談談枯竭問題，不僅是淡水河谷的問題，也是整個產業的問題。我的意思是，您認為每年有多少噸僅因枯竭而退出市場？非常感謝。

Thank you, Yuri, for your questions. It's a tough question because this is the business. So -- but I can give you in colors that globally, we have a decrease of quality. And mainly in our competitors, they are facing the increase of alumina. That's a huge impact that will come to the market. In Brazil, I can say from Vale, the depletion is something that we had to overcome after Brumadinho. So we had to improve our capacity not only to support this decline of the mines, that's a natural thing. But even grow the capacity to reestablish our level.

謝謝你，尤里，你的問題。這是一個很難回答的問題，因為這就是生意。所以，但我可以給你一些顏色，在全球範圍內，我們的品質有所下降。而主要是我們的競爭對手，他們面臨氧化鋁的增加。這將對市場產生巨大影響。在巴西，我可以從淡水河谷說，布魯馬迪尼奧之後我們必須克服資源枯竭的問題。因此，我們必須提高我們的能力，不僅要支持礦山的減少，這是很自然的事。但甚至增強能力來重建我們的水平。

So globally, if I can give you a number, it's 300 million tonnes to 400 million tonnes until 2030. And again, the difficulties to bring back quality puts Vale on a very good level to compete in this new world of green energy. Thank you.

因此，如果我可以給你一個數字，那麼到 2030 年，全球的產量將達到 3 億噸到 4 億噸。再一次，恢復品質的困難使淡水河谷在這個綠色能源新世界的競爭中處於非常好的水平。謝謝。

Ricardo Monegaglia, Safra.

里卡多·莫內加利亞，薩夫拉。

Hello everyone, good morning. I have a couple of quick questions. First on regards to the lawsuits in the UK and Netherlands. Are there any discussions to include such in some sort in the final agreement from Mariana, is that a possibility? Second question is how much could you -- could Vargem Grande produce in 2024 and how those grades in that operation compare with your most recent figures on quality Fe content. And maybe if Mark could just give a quick outlook or his latest impressions on nickel and copper markets. Thank you.

大家好，早安。我有幾個簡單的問題。首先是關於英國和荷蘭的訴訟。是否有任何討論將其以某種方式納入瑪麗安娜的最終協議中，有可能嗎？第二個問題是 Vargem Grande 到 2024 年能生產多少，以及該工廠的這些品位與最新的優質鐵含量數據相比如何。也許馬克可以快速給出他對鎳和銅市場的展望或最新印象。謝謝。

Ricardo, Gustavo here. So I'll do the first two and then Carlos will cover the second and then we can have Mark complementing. So look, on the lawsuit, they are different, right? So those are different jurisdictions and the UK, and the Netherlands as compared to Brazil. We continue to believe that the right jurisdiction for this decision to be handled, settled, and resolved, is Brazil, and we are working towards that outcome. As I mentioned in my first answer today, we continue to be optimistic that we'll be able to resolve those conversations and discussions here in Brazil.

里卡多，古斯塔沃在這裡。因此，我將完成前兩個任務，然後卡洛斯將完成第二個任務，然後我們可以讓馬克進行補充。所以你看，在訴訟上，他們是不同的，對嗎？因此，與巴西相比，英國和荷蘭是不同的司法管轄區。我們仍然相信，處理、解決和解決這項決定的正確司法管轄區是巴西，我們正在努力實現這一結果。正如我在今天的第一個回答中提到的，我們仍然樂觀地認為我們將能夠在巴西解決這些對話和討論。

Hello Ricardo, this is Carlos Medeiros speaking. On Vargem Grande, we expect to produce 1 million tonnes in the remainder part of the year, and should be a normal concentrated product, 62% iron.

你好，里卡多，我是卡洛斯‧梅代羅斯。在 Vargem Grande，我們預計今年剩餘時間將生產 100 萬噸，並且應該是正常的濃縮產品，鐵含量為 62%。

Mark?

標記？

Well, good. Look, I think the world, as we know, is short copper demand still looks pretty strong. A little bit of a slowing of EV demand, but I don't think that's significant in the scheme of things. I think all other markets are pretty strong. So we believe copper will continue to play strongly. And I think the activity we're seeing across the industry in terms of interest in copper assets is really confirming how strong, I think the producers are. We're the same. We've got some opportunities to improve. North Atlantic should also do a little bit better on copper next year, but I think pretty positive. And I think the risk is to the upside. Next one.

嗯，很好。聽著，我認為，正如我們所知，世界是空的，銅需求看起來仍然相當強勁。電動車需求略有放緩，但我認為這在計劃中並不重要。我認為所有其他市場都相當強勁。因此我們相信銅價將持續強勁。我認為我們在整個行業中看到的對銅資產的興趣的活動確實證實了生產商的實力有多強。我們是一樣的。我們有一些改進的機會。北大西洋明年的銅價也應該會有所好轉，但我認為相當積極。我認為風險是向上的。下一個。

Amos Fletcher, Barclays.

阿莫斯·弗萊徹，巴克萊銀行。

Yeah, morning, guys. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question was just on working capital. I was just wanting to ask about how big of a release we can potentially expect in terms of working capital in H2, as Gustavo was mentioning. And then the second question was on nickel production in the guidance. The bottom end of the guidance implies 40% higher production in H2 versus H1. Just wanted to ask what are the main drivers for delivering that big recovery that we should be expecting. All right. Thanks very much.

是的，早上好，夥計們。感謝您提供的機會。我的第一個問題只是關於營運資金。我只是想問一下，正如古斯塔沃所提到的那樣，我們在下半年的營運資金方面可以預期有多大的釋放。第二個問題是指南中關於鎳產量的問題。該指南的底部意味著下半年的產量比上半年高出 40%。只是想問一下，實現我們應該期待的大幅復甦的主要驅動力是什麼。好的。非常感謝。

So, Amos, this is Gustavo. Look, on working capital, I think there is a possibility to revert, if not all of it, but most of it, as we highlighted in that chart. So I think we are looking for a stronger Q3. I think that's what you should be seeing.

阿莫斯，這是古斯塔沃。看，就營運資金而言，我認為有可能恢復，即使不是全部，但大部分，正如我們在該圖表中所強調的那樣。所以我認為我們正在尋找更強勁的第三季。我想這就是你應該看到的。

On nickel production, the good news, Amos, is that Sudbury has got quite a bit of ore in front of the mill, something we haven't had for a long time. So that's positive in terms of coming out of the maintenance probably 10,000 tonne to 15,000 tonne pickup there. Thompson should do better with a bit of production held back through Long Harbour maintenance. There's probably three there. Voisey's Bay, again, impacted by Long Harbour maintenance. So there's probably another three or four there. And we've got a little bit more that we can square through on the third parties because of the other maintenance that we've had in smelters. So I think overall, pretty strong. And obviously, Onça Puma should be a stronger contributor, probably at least 10 based on the bringing up of the furnace rebuild.

關於鎳生產，阿莫斯，好消息是薩德伯里工廠前有相當多的礦石，這是我們很久沒有的了。因此，就維護結束後可能會接收 10,000 噸至 15,000 噸的貨物而言，這是積極的。湯普森應該會做得更好，因為長港維護會限制一些生產。那裡大概有三個。沃伊西灣再次受到長港維護的影響。所以可能還有另外三、四個。由於我們在冶煉廠進行了其他維護工作，我們還有更多可以向第三方解決的問題。所以我認為總的來說，相當強。顯然，Onña Puma 應該是一個更強大的貢獻者，根據熔爐重建的進展，可能至少有 10 個貢獻者。

So quite a few positives there. The only negative might be -- what will be the deconsolidation of PTVI. I think there's about two there. So net-net, we should go from about what was it, 67 to probably a pickup of around 30 in the second half. That's what we're assuming at the moment, that's how looks. We're pretty comfortable with that at the moment.

所以有很多正面的一面。唯一的負面影響可能是 PTVI 的分拆。我想那裡大約有兩個。因此，我們應該從大約 67 分上升到下半場的 30 分左右。這就是我們目前的假設，這就是看起來的樣子。目前我們對此感到非常滿意。

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo for the company's final remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我們希望將發言權交還給 Eduardo Bartolomeo 先生，讓公司發表最後的演講。

Okay. Thank you. Well, as I mentioned in my initial remarks, the first half of the year is over. The best is yet to come. I think we are really confident on delivering on our strategic guidance. I think safety is one of the things we're most proud of and we are truly all extremely well on that, as I mentioned before, I think on iron ore cost is going to come to its place where Gustavo mentioned and production, for sure. It's on our hands.

好的。謝謝。嗯，正如我在最初的演講中提到的，上半年已經結束了。最好的還在後頭。我認為我們對實現我們的策略指導非常有信心。我認為安全是我們最引以為傲的事情之一，我們在這方面確實做得非常好，正如我之前提到的，我認為鐵礦石成本肯定會達到古斯塔沃所提到的水平和生產水平。它就在我們手上。

The things on direct reduction, as Gustavo mentioned, as a key takeaway, is coming on to reality. As Spinelli mentioned, we announced the Oman concentration plant. One thing that makes me very happy is the contract of our new CEO at Base Metals. Shaun is going to do a great job, help Mark do the transformation that is needed there. And as Gustavo has mentioned in his final remarks, we are always committed to create value.

正如古斯塔沃所提到的，作為一個關鍵要點，直接減少的事情正在成為現實。正如斯皮內利所提到的，我們宣布了阿曼選礦廠。讓我非常高興的一件事是我們新任賤金屬執行長的合約。肖恩將會做得很好，幫助馬克完成那裡所需的轉變。正如古斯塔沃在最後致詞中所提到的，我們始終致力於創造價值。

So I will end, like always, I have never been so optimistic and that's why I'm optimistic. We are delivering on what we are, how can I say that, promising to the market and that make us happy. And of course, I'd like to thank our employees, our team for that, okay? And you, of course, for having the interest and talking to us. Until the next call.

所以我會結束，像往常一樣，我從來沒有這麼樂觀過，這就是我樂觀的原因。我們正在兌現我們的承諾，我該怎麼說，向市場做出承諾，這讓我們很高興。當然，我要感謝我們的員工、我們的團隊，好嗎？當然，還有您有興趣並與我們交談。直到下一次通話。

Vale's conference is now concluded. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.

淡水河谷的會議現已結束。我們感謝您的參與並祝您有個愉快的一天。