淡水河谷 (VALE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

淡水河谷執行長公佈了該公司 2024 年第三季業績,強調了在安全、卓越營運和投資組合成長方面取得的進展。該公司專注於績效驅動的文化、卓越的產品組合以及成為利益相關者值得信賴的合作夥伴。淡水河谷在大壩安全、減少環境影響以及增加鐵礦石和能源過渡金屬產量方面取得了長足進展。他們還簽署了一項具有約束力的協議,以修復薩馬科豐當大壩潰壩事故。

財務長討論了財務業績,包括預計 37 億美元的 EBITDA、成本效率和自由現金流生成。該公司向股東返還價值,收購了 Aliança Energia,並為擴大的淨債務確認了額外撥備。淡水河谷專注於鐵礦石、銅和鎳業務的安全、卓越營運和策略成長。他們致力於解決薩馬科和解等問題並維持最佳槓桿目標。

該公司的未來策略包括擴大鐵礦石產品組合、增加銅產量以及推動以績效為導向的文化。他們專注於優化產品組合、實現價值最大化,並將其定位為脫碳煉鋼的主要供應商。淡水河谷對巴西礦產商品的成長及其投資組合釋放價值的潛力持樂觀態度。他們強調開發自己的賤金屬和鐵礦石資源的重要性,以便為股東創造更多價值。淡水河谷對其目前的商品感到滿意,但正在尋求增加銅的持有量,並在成本曲線上保持有利的地位。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vale's third quarter 2024 earnings call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available on our website at vale.com. The presentation is also available for download in English and Portuguese from our website. To listen to the call in Portuguese, please press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose to enter the Portuguese room. Then select mute original audio, so that you won't hear the English version in the background. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,女士們先生們。歡迎參加淡水河谷 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中,重播將在我們的網站 vale.com 上提供。該演示文稿還可以從我們的網站下載英語和葡萄牙語版本。若要收聽葡萄牙語通話,請按 Zoom 畫面右下角的地球圖標,然後選擇進入葡萄牙語房間。然後選擇將原始音訊靜音,這樣您就不會在背景聽到英文版本。(操作員說明)

  • We would like to advise that forward-looking statements may be provided in this presentation, including Vale's expectations about future events or results, encompassing those matters listed in the respective presentation.

    我們謹建議,本簡報中可能會提供前瞻性陳述,包括淡水河谷對未來事件或結果的預期,涵蓋相應簡報中列出的事項。

  • We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and involve risks and uncertainties. To obtain information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, and in particular, the factors discussed under forward-looking statements and risks factors in Vale's annual report on Form 20-F.

    我們提醒您,前瞻性陳述並不是對未來績效的保證,並且涉及風險和不確定性。要獲取可能導致結果與淡水河谷預測不同的因素的信息,請查閱淡水河谷向美國證券交易委員會、巴西移動價格委員會提交的報告,特別是下面討論的因素淡水河谷20-F 表格年度報告中的前瞻性陳述和風險因素。

  • With us today are Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, CEO; Mr. Murilo Muller, Acting Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Rogério Nogueira, Acting Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions; Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations; Mr. Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals; and Mr. Alexandre D'Ambrosio, Executive Vice President of Corporate and External Affairs.

    今天與我們在一起的有首席執行官 Gustavo Pimenta 先生; Murilo Muller 先生,財務與投資者關係代理執行副總裁; Rogério Nogueira 先生,Iron Ore Solutions 代理執行副總裁; Carlos Medeiros 先生,營運執行副總裁;淡水河谷基本金屬公司執行長Shaun Usmar先生;亞歷山大‧丹布羅西奧 (Alexandre D'Ambrosio) 先生,公司及對外事務執行副總裁。

  • Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. E Gustavo Pimenta. Sir, you may now begin.

    現在,我將會議交給 E Gustavo Pimenta 先生。先生,您現在可以開始了。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to Vale's third quarter 2024 conference call. I'm pleased to present Vale's result for the first time as the company's CEO. Before I start, I would like to take a moment to thank Eduardo Bartolomeo for his tenure as CEO of Vale in the last five years. Eduardo led Vale through one of the most difficult periods of our history. It drove a series of significant changes within the company, and today, we are in a much stronger position, being safer, more stable, and better prepared for an even greater future. So on behalf of the entire Vale team, we thank you, Eduardo, for that.

    大家好,歡迎參加淡水河谷 2024 年第三季電話會議。我很高興首次以淡水河谷執行長的身份介紹該公司的業績。在開始之前,我想花點時間感謝愛德華多·巴托洛梅奧 (Eduardo Bartolomeo) 在過去五年擔任淡水河谷執行長。愛德華多帶領淡水河谷度過了我們歷史上最困難的時期之一。它推動了公司內部的一系列重大變化,今天,我們處於更強大的地位,更安全、更穩定,並為更美好的未來做好了更好的準備。因此,我們代表整個淡水河谷團隊感謝您,愛德華多。

  • I also want to express my gratitude to the Board of Directors for their trust and confidence. It is an honor for me to lead this great company. And I'm highly confident and optimistic about our future. So in my initial weeks as CEO, I have outlined the key areas of focus that would guide us going forward. Vale has an immense potential, and I firmly believe that we can position ourselves as a reference in the sector. For that, we are building on our solid progress to develop a Vale 2030 vision, which we plan on detailing at Vale Day, in early December. This vision will be based on three key pillars.

    我還要感謝董事會的信任和信心。我很榮幸能夠領導這家偉大的公司。我對我們的未來充滿信心和樂觀。因此,在擔任執行長的最初幾週,我概述了指導我們前進的關鍵重點領域。淡水河谷擁有巨大的潛力,我堅信我們可以將自己定位為該產業的標竿。為此,我們正在紮實地推進制定淡水河谷 2030 年願景,並計劃在 12 月初的淡水河谷日上詳細闡述該願景。這個願景將基於三個關鍵支柱。

  • First, a performance-driven culture; we will accelerate our cultural transformation, maintaining our focus on safety and operational excellence, while also becoming a more agile, efficient organization. As such, we'll be taking decisive actions to maturely improve our competitiveness and once again position Vale in the very low end of the industry global cost curve. We will provide more details about our cost efficiency initiatives and associated targets at Vale Day.

    第一,績效驅動的文化;我們將加快文化轉型,保持對安全和卓越營運的關注,同時成為一個更敏捷、更有效率的組織。因此,我們將採取果斷行動,成熟地提高我們的競爭力,並再次將淡水河谷置於行業全球成本曲線的極低端。我們將在淡水河谷日提供有關我們的成本效率計劃和相關目標的更多詳細資訊。

  • Second, a superior portfolio; we will accelerate the execution of our premium iron ore strategy, leveraging on our unique endowment. Vale has one of the richest iron ore resources in the world, and we aim to structurally produce about 350 million tons of iron ore. Of which 80% to 90% will be high-quality products, like BRBF, Carajás, and agglomerated products.

    第二,優秀的投資組合;我們將利用我們獨特的禀賦,加速實施優質鐵礦石策略。淡水河谷擁有全球最豐富的鐵礦石資源之一,我們的目標是結構性生產約3.5億噸鐵礦石。其中80%~90%為優質產品,如BRBF、Carajás、團聚產品。

  • This flexible portfolio will allow us to support our clients in their decarbonization journey while maintaining optionality to capture value under different market conditions. We also have a very unique base metals platform, with significant growth potential, particularly in copper. I'm very pleased with our strategic decision to carve out the business last year, and have a world-class dedicated team under the leadership of Shaun. I'm highly confident we will take this business to next level in the following years.

    這種靈活的產品組合將使我們能夠為客戶的脫碳之旅提供支持,同時保持在不同市場條件下獲取價值的選擇性。我們也擁有非常獨特的賤金屬平台,具有巨大的成長潛力,特別是銅。我對我們去年開拓業務的策略決策感到非常滿意,並在肖恩的領導下擁有一支世界一流的敬業團隊。我非常有信心我們將在接下來的幾年裡將這項業務推向新的水平。

  • Third, it is essential that our stakeholder sees us as a trusted partner. For that, we will be working closely with society to leave a positive legacy from our activities, while creating responsible and trustworthy relationships. This will be a critical priority of mine and my leadership team, and I'm certain it will give us a competitive advantage going forward. We are working as a team to detail what each one of these levers mean in terms of concrete goals, targets, and initiatives. And we'll be providing the details at Vale Day.

    第三,我們的利害關係人必須將我們視為值得信賴的合作夥伴。為此,我們將與社會密切合作,從我們的活動中留下積極的遺產,同時建立負責任和值得信賴的關係。這將是我和我的領導團隊的首要任務,我確信這將為我們帶來未來的競爭優勢。我們作為一個團隊正在努力詳細說明這些槓桿在具體目標、指標和措施方面的意義。我們將在淡水河谷日提供詳細資訊。

  • Now, let's take a look at our recent performance in the next slides. We are making steady progress on our commitment to eliminate upstream dams in Brazil. Our decharacterization program includes 30 structures. And this month, we achieved another important milestone by eliminating the 16 structure, Dique 1A, on October 11, about two months ahead of schedule.

    現在,讓我們在下一張投影片中看看我們最近的表現。我們在消除巴西上游水壩的承諾方面正在穩步取得進展。我們的去特徵化計劃包括 30 個結構。本月,我們實現了另一個重要的里程碑,於 10 月 11 日消除了 16 個結構 Dique 1A,比原計劃提前了大約兩個月。

  • The dam elimination process requires a lot of innovation, and it is complex and unique for each structure. We have gained incredible experience and knowledge through this process, and this has allowed us to accelerate the decharacterization of many structures, while upholding the highest standards of safety and risk management. We will continue to deliver on our dam safety commitments with a disciplined approach. Alongside the decommissioning process, we are working to enhance the safety of our structures.

    拆除大壩的過程需要大量的創新,而且每個結構都是複雜且獨特的。透過這個過程,我們獲得了令人難以置信的經驗和知識,這使我們能夠加速許多結構的去特徵化,同時堅持最高的安全和風險管理標準。我們將繼續以嚴格的方式履行我們的大壩安全承諾。除了退役過程外,我們還致力於提高結構的安全性。

  • The chart on the next slide shows our progress on removing dams from emergency levels. In August, we removed the Sul Superior Dam from the emergency level 3. And currently, there is just one dam left at this level, which is the Forquilha III Dam. And we are making very good progress to reduce this dam's emergency levels soon, being on track to deliver on our commitment to have no dams at level 3 by 2025.

    下一張投影片上的圖表顯示了我們將水壩從緊急等級拆除的進展。8 月,我們將蘇蘇必利爾大壩的緊急等級解除為 3 級。目前,這一級別的大壩只剩下一座,那就是福奎利亞三號大壩。我們在盡快降低大壩緊急等級方面取得了非常好的進展,預計將兌現到 2025 年沒有三級水壩的承諾。

  • The future of mining will require companies to reduce its footprint and minimize even further the impact of their operations. At Vale, we have been working on a series of initiatives to create more secular operations, such as our Gelado plant in Carajás, which will be able to produce up to 5 million tons per year of high quality iron ore by reprocessing existing tailings. Other initiatives include processing waste from piles and generating co-products for other industries. In addition to minimizing the impact of our operations, these initiatives usually have quicker time to market and lower unit costs once they reach scale.

    採礦業的未來將要求公司減少其足跡,並進一步減少其營運的影響。在淡水河谷,我們一直致力於採取一系列舉措來創造更長期的運營,例如我們位於卡拉加斯的Gelado 工廠,透過對現有尾礦進行再加工,每年將能夠生產高達500 萬噸的優質鐵礦石。其他舉措包括處理垃圾堆中的廢棄物以及為其他行業生產副產品。除了最大限度地減少我們營運的影響之外,這些措施一旦達到規模,通常可以更快地投入市場並降低單位成本。

  • Now, let's talk about the performance of our portfolio in the next slide. This quarter we delivered the highest iron ore production since 2018, underscoring our focus on operational excellence. Aligned with our strategy to grow on agglomerated products, our pellet production reached its highest level for any quarter since 2019, increasing 13% year on year.

    現在,讓我們在下一張投影片中討論我們的投資組合的表現。本季我們實現了 2018 年以來最高的鐵礦石產量,凸顯了我們對卓越營運的關注。與我們的集聚產品成長策略一致,我們的顆粒產量達到 2019 年以來任何季度的最高水平,年增 13%。

  • Last month, we increased our production guidance for the year. And we are now confident we can deliver at the top end of the 323 million to 330 million tons range for 2024. Iron ore sales in the quarter were in line year on year, with an important quality improvement in our product mix on the back of higher BRBF sales and the proactive decision to reduce direct sales of high silica ore. Delivering on our growth projects in iron ore is critical for us to improve the flexibility of our portfolio.

    上個月,我們提高了今年的生產指引。我們現在有信心能夠在 2024 年交付 3.23 億至 3.3 億噸的上限。本季鐵礦石銷售量與去年同期持平,由於 BRBF 銷售量增加以及主動決定減少高矽礦石的直接銷售,我們的產品結構品質得到了重大改善。實現鐵礦石成長專案對於我們提高投資組合的靈活性至關重要。

  • To that end, I'm very pleased to see the successful startup of Vargem Grande within budget and one month ahead of schedule. This is a 15 million tons iron ore project, which should also increase iron ore content by about 2% at the site. The next relevant project to come online is Capanema, with another 15 million tons. The project is already 91% complete. And it is scheduled to start up in the first-half of 2025. This demonstrates that we are effectively delivering on our commitments. Regaining not only volumes but more importantly commercial flexibility, which will help us maximize value creation.

    為此,我很高興看到 Vargem Grande 在預算範圍內成功啟動,比計劃提前了一個月。這是一個1500萬噸鐵礦石項目,預計也會使現場鐵礦石含量增加約2%。下一個上線的相關項目是 Capanema,另外還有 1500 萬噸。該項目已完成 91%。計劃於2025年上半年啟動。這表明我們正在有效地履行我們的承諾。不僅恢復產量,更重要的是恢復商業靈活性,這將有助於我們最大限度地創造價值。

  • Looking at our Energy Transition Metals business, we also saw a strong production performance year on year in both copper and nickel, as the asset review initiatives started generating results. Ore processed at Salobo 1 and 2 plants increased by 30% year on year. And our Sudbury mines had a 20% increase in mill throughput year on year. Shaun Usmar has recently joined as VBM, CEO, and will continue the implementation of the asset review and execution of the company's long-term strategy.

    看看我們的能源過渡金屬業務,隨著資產審查措施開始產生成果,我們也看到銅和鎳的產量較去年同期表現強勁。Salobo 1 和 2 廠加工的礦石年增 30%。我們的薩德伯里礦場的工廠吞吐量年增了 20%。Shaun Usmar 最近加入擔任 VBM、首席執行官,並將繼續實施資產審查和執行公司的長期策略。

  • I'm confident we have the best team in place to take the Energy Transition Metals business to the next level. Last but not least, after two years of negotiation, today marks an important chapter in our history. We signed the binding terms for the full reparation of Samarco's Fundão dam collapse.

    我相信我們擁有最好的團隊,可以將能源過渡金屬業務提升到一個新的水平。最後但並非最不重要的一點是,經過兩年的談判,今天標誌著我們歷史上的重要篇章。我們簽署了對薩馬科豐多大壩潰壩進行全面賠償的約束性條款。

  • The terms agreed is a result of open dialogue based on social, environmental, and technical criteria, and reinforces Vale's commitment to a fair and definitive reparation. The total value of the agreement is BRL170 billion, which will be divided into BRL100 billion in cash payments payable over 20 years to the federal government, the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, and the municipalities to fund compensatory programs and actions tied to the public policies.

    達成的條款是基於社會、環境和技術標準的公開對話的結果,並強化了淡水河谷對公平和明確賠償的承諾。該協議總價值為1,700 億雷亞爾,其中將分為1,000 億雷亞爾現金,在20 年內支付給聯邦政府、米納斯吉拉斯州和聖埃斯皮里圖州以及各市政府,以資助與該項目相關的補償計劃和行動。

  • Plus, BRL32 billion in obligations to be performed by Samarco over the next years, including ongoing programs for individual indemnification, resettlement, and environmental recovery, which will be gradually transferred from the Renova Foundation. The total amount also considers the BRL38 billion already disbursed in 42 compensation programs over the years. Together with all the key stakeholders, we reached a mutually beneficial solution for all parties, especially for the impacted people, communities, and the environment while creating definitiveness and legal certainty for the companies.

    此外,Samarco 將在未來幾年履行 320 億雷亞爾的義務,包括正在進行的個人賠償、安置和環境恢復計劃,這些計劃將逐步從 Renova 基金會轉移。這一總額還考慮了多年來已向 42 個補償計劃支付的 380 億雷亞爾。我們與所有主要利害關係人一起,為各方,特別是受影響的人群、社區和環境達成了互惠互利的解決方案,同時為公司創造了確定性和法律確定性。

  • Now, I'd like to invite Murilo Muller, our acting CFO, to talk about our financial performance. Please, Murilo.

    現在,我想邀請我們的代理財務長 Murilo Muller 來談談我們的財務表現。拜託,穆里洛。

  • Murilo Muller - Interim EVP, Finance and IR

    Murilo Muller - Interim EVP, Finance and IR

  • Thanks, Gustavo, and good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here to present our third quarter 2024 results. So let's start with our EBITDA performance. As you can see, our pro forma EBITDA reached $3.7 billion in the quarter, with some encouraging factors that helped mitigate the impact of lower iron ore prices.

    謝謝古斯塔沃,大家早安。很高興在這裡展示我們 2024 年第三季的業績。讓我們從 EBITDA 表現開始。如您所見,本季我們的預估 EBITDA 達到 37 億美元,一些令人鼓舞的因素有助於減輕鐵礦石價格下跌的影響。

  • In Q3 2024, we achieved higher sales volumes, particularly in pellets, our highest quality product. We also delivered a much better performance on costs and expenses, while the weaker Brazilian Real provided further support. As Gustavo mentioned earlier, we are extremely focused on regaining our competitiveness and our C1 cost performance is particularly important in this journey.

    2024 年第三季度,我們實現了更高的銷量,特別是我們最高品質的產品顆粒。我們在成本和費用方面也取得了更好的表現,而疲軟的巴西雷亞爾則提供了進一步的支撐。正如 Gustavo 之前提到的,我們非常注重重新獲得競爭力,而我們的 C1 性價比在這過程中尤其重要。

  • Let's take a closer look at our C1 in the next slides. In Iron ore, our C1 cash costs, excluding third party purchase, was $28.6 per ton, 17% lower quarter-on-quarter, and 6% lower year-on-year. We were pleased to see that this is the first year-on-year decrease in C1 cash costs since the first quarter of 2021, giving us confidence that we are on the right path to becoming a more efficient company. The sequential improvement was driven by the results of our efficiency initiatives, lower maintenance expenses, fixed cost dilution, as well as a better production mix, with more volumes come from the Northern System where we have our most competitive operations.

    讓我們在下一張投影片中仔細看看 C1。在鐵礦石方面,我們的 C1 現金成本(不包括第三方採購)為每噸 28.6 美元,季減 17%,年減 6%。我們很高興地看到,這是自 2021 年第一季以來 C1 現金成本首次同比下降,這讓我們相信我們正走在成為更有效率的公司的正確道路上。連續改善是由我們的效率舉措、較低的維護費用、固定成本稀釋以及更好的生產組合的結果推動的,更多的產量來自我們最具競爭力的運營的北方系統。

  • We are highly confident in delivering our C1 cost guidance for 2024 of $21.5 to $23 per ton. More than that, our performance is actually pointing towards us achieving the low end of this guidance in 2024. In Q4, we expect sequentially lower costs. For reference, our C1 in September reached $18.2 per ton, excluding inventory effects.

    我們非常有信心實現 2024 年每噸 21.5 美元至 23 美元的 C1 成本指引。更重要的是,我們的業績實際上表明我們將在 2024 年實現這一指導的低端。在第四季度,我們預計成本將持續下降。作為參考,我們 9 月的 C1 達到每噸 18.2 美元,不包括庫存影響。

  • Now, moving to the energy transition metal business, we observed an overall decrease in our all-in costs year-on-year. In copper, the 13% year-on-year reduction was driven by higher unit by-product revenues and lower unit costs, resulting in an all-in below $3,000 per ton. As a result of this solid performance, in Q3, we are once again revising our 2024 all-in cost guidance downwards, with the new range being now between $2,900 and $3,300 per ton.

    現在,轉向能源過渡金屬業務,我們發現總成本比去年同期整體下降。銅方面,由於單位副產品收入增加和單位成本下降,導致銅價年減 13%,導致總價低於每噸 3,000 美元。由於這種穩健的表現,我們在第三季再次下調 2024 年總成本指導,新的範圍目前在每噸 2,900 美元至 3,300 美元之間。

  • In nickel, despite the consolidation of PTVI operations, which have lower average costs, all-in costs decreased by 3% year-on-year. We remain on track to meet our cost guidance for 2024. This improvement was a result of the ongoing ramp up of Voisey's Bay operations, which allowed us to reduce third-party purchase in our Canadian refineries, coupled with higher unit by-product revenues.

    在鎳方面,儘管平均成本較低的 PTVI 業務進行了整合,但總成本比去年同期下降了 3%。我們仍有望實現 2024 年的成本指引。這項改善是由於 Voisey's Bay 業務持續增加的結果,這使我們能夠減少加拿大煉油廠的第三方採購,同時單位副產品收入也有所增加。

  • Now, moving on to cash generation, free cash flow generation was $0.2 billion, mostly impacted by lower EBITDA and by negative working capital. We saw an increase in accounts receivables due to 14 million tons of iron ore sales accrued in the end of the quarter, as well as 23 million tons of sales that were booked at a forward price of $109 per ton. Our capital expenditures remain steady quarter-on-quarter at $1.3 billion, trading below our guidance for 2024 of approximately $6.5 billion.

    現在,轉向現金生成,自由現金流生成為 2 億美元,主要受到 EBITDA 下降和負營運資本的影響。我們看到應收帳款增加,原因是本季末應計了 1,400 萬噸鐵礦石銷售量,以及以每噸 109 美元的遠期價格預訂的 2,300 萬噸鐵礦石銷售量。我們的資本支出季度環比穩定在 13 億美元,低於我們 2024 年約 65 億美元的指引。

  • Lastly, our free cash flow generation and strong cash position were primarily used to return value to our shareholders with the payment of $1.6 billion in interest on capital in September. In Q3, we also acquired the remaining stake in Aliança Energia. As we have previously mentioned, our intention is to look for potential partners for our energy assets, while keeping a minority stake. We hope to be able to bring more news on this in the coming months.

    最後,我們的自由現金流產生和強勁的現金狀況主要用於向股東回報價值,並在 9 月支付了 16 億美元的資本利息。第三季度,我們也收購了 Aliança Energia 的剩餘股權。正如我們之前提到的,我們的目的是為我們的能源資產尋找潛在的合作夥伴,同時保留少數股權。我們希望能夠在未來幾個月內帶來更多有關此事的消息。

  • Before passing the floor back to Gustavo for the key takeaways, I would like to comment on the agreement we signed today. As Gustavo mentioned in his opening remarks, the agreement outlines the reparation and compensation measures related to the Samarco dam collapse.

    在將發言權交還給古斯塔沃以獲取關鍵要點之前,我想對我們今天簽署的協議發表評論。正如古斯塔沃在開場白中所提到的,該協議概述了與薩馬科大壩潰壩相關的賠償和補償措施。

  • In addition to the BRL38 billion disbursed since 2015, the agreement establishes BRL100 billion in payment obligations over a period of 20 years and BRL32 billion in performance obligations by Samarco, including initiatives for individual identification, resettlement, and environmental recovery. This table outlines our expectations of cash commitments.

    除了自2015 年以來支付的380 億雷亞爾之外,該協議還確定了Samarco 在20 年內支付1000 億雷亞爾的付款義務和320 億雷亞爾的履約義務,包括個人識別、重新安置和環境恢復舉措。表中概述了我們對現金承諾的預期。

  • As you can see, in the short term, we will have a higher concentration of obligations to perform, and over time, the impact on cash will gradually reduce. This cash outflow projection considers that Samarco will continue to pay for a portion of the requirement payments as per its approved business plan. As such, we have recognized an extra provision of approximately $1 billion, bringing our expanded net debt to $16.5 billion. Regarding our optimal leverage targets, we are maintaining the $10 billion to $20 billion range under the same expanded net debt concepts.

    正如你所看到的,短期內,我們將有更集中的義務來履行,隨著時間的推移,對現金的影響將逐漸減少。此現金流出預測認為 Samarco 將繼續根據其批准的業務計劃支付部分要求付款。因此,我們確認了約 10 億美元的額外撥備,使我們擴大後的淨債務達到 165 億美元。關於我們的最佳槓桿目標,在相同的擴大淨債務概念下,我們將維持 100 億至 200 億美元的範圍。

  • Now, I pass the floor to Gustavo.

    現在,我請古斯塔沃發言。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Thanks, Murilo. Before opening up for the Q&A session, I would like to reinforce the key messages from today's call. We remain highly focused on safety and operational excellence. As you have seen, we delivered a robust operational performance; the fourth consecutive quarter with year-on-year increased in iron ore production. We are accelerating our cost efficiency program, now expecting to reach the low end of our C1 guidance range for the year in iron ore, while lowering, once again, our all-in cost guidance for copper. I can assure you we will laser-focused on our efficiency efforts in the years to come.

    謝謝,穆里洛。在開始問答環節之前,我想重申一下今天電話會議的關鍵訊息。我們仍然高度關注安全和卓越營運。正如您所看到的,我們實現了強勁的營運表現;鐵礦石產量連續第四個季度年增。我們正在加快成本效率計劃,目前預計鐵礦石將達到今年 C1 指導範圍的下限,同時再次降低銅的整體成本指引。我可以向您保證,我們將在未來幾年集中精力提高效率。

  • On our strategic objectives to deliver a superior portfolio, we are progressing with our transformational projects. Vargem Grande started up in September on budget and ahead of schedule. Capanema will come online in the next months, providing us with further flexibility within our iron ore operations at a very low capital intensity.

    為了實現提供卓越產品組合的策略目標,我們正在推動轉型專案。Vargem Grande 於 9 月按照預算並提前啟動。Capanema 將在未來幾個月上線,以非常低的資本密集度為我們的鐵礦石業務提供更大的靈活性。

  • At VBM, the asset review execution is gradually bearing fruit with strong year-on-year operational performance at both copper and nickel. And I'm very confident that, under Shaun's leadership, we will continue to make substantial progress towards creating a leading energy transition metals business.

    在VBM,資產審查的執行正在逐步取得成果,銅和鎳的營運表現較去年同期強勁。我非常有信心,在肖恩的領導下,我們將繼續在創建領先的能源過渡金屬業務方面取得實質進展。

  • Finally, today is an important day for Brazil, for Vale, and for the people impacted by the collapse of Samarco Dam in Mariana. The signing of definitive settlement for full reparation confirms that the Brazilian institutions are solid, competent, and legitimate for resolving our issues. The agreement also reinforces our commitment to the people, the communities, and the environment.

    最後,今天對巴西、淡水河谷以及受馬裡亞納薩馬科大壩倒塌影響的人來說都是重要的一天。全面賠償最終解決方案的簽署證實了巴西機構在解決我們的問題方面是堅實、有能力和合法的。該協議也強化了我們對人民、社區和環境的承諾。

  • Thank you all. And let's start the Q&A session.

    謝謝大家。讓我們開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Rodolfo Angele, JPMorgan.

    魯道夫·安吉勒,摩根大通。

  • Rodolfo Angele - Analyst

    Rodolfo Angele - Analyst

  • Okay, good afternoon, everyone, first of all. My first question goes to Gustavo, and Gustavo, I couldn't not start by wishing you the best of luck in your tenure as the CEO. My question is you touched on a few points around your ambitions as the new leader of the company in the beginning of the call. And I understand that more details will be provided at the Vale Day, but I wonder if you could discuss with us a little bit more of what are your short-term focus will be, which initiative you see that could represent the biggest opportunities to be captured, especially in the lower -- or in the earlier part of your tenure. So that's my first question.

    好的,首先大家下午好。我的第一個問題是問古斯塔沃,古斯塔沃,我首先祝你在擔任執行長期間一切順利。我的問題是,您在電話會議開始時談到了作為公司新領導者的雄心壯志的幾點。我知道更多細節將在淡水河谷日提供,但我想知道您是否可以與我們多討論一下您的短期重點是什麼,您認為哪些舉措可能代表著最大的機會被捕獲,尤其是在您任期的較低階段或早期階段。這是我的第一個問題。

  • And my second question, I also couldn't not take the opportunity to ask a question to Rogério, great to hear from you, I wanted to hear from you a little bit more on the portfolio strategy for iron ore that we're starting to hear more about. So can you give us more details on what exactly do you expect to be the next steps in that direction, what is the evolution of the portfolio of iron ore Vale in the future? And that's it for me, thank you very much.

    我的第二個問題,我也不能不藉此機會向 Rogério 提問,很高興收到你的來信,我想聽聽你更多關於我們正在製定的鐵礦石投資組合策略的信息。更多有關。那麼您能否給我們更多詳細信息,說明您預計朝這個方向的下一步具體是什麼,未來淡水河谷鐵礦石投資組合的演變是什麼?我的就這些了,非常感謝。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Thanks, Rodolfo. Gustavo here. Thanks for the best wishes. Yeah, look, I think the way we are thinking about is under three key levers. One, in terms of portfolio, we've talked about it, but we are pushing hard to be able to resume the capacity that we think we can add in a very accretive way to our iron ore portfolio, getting it to 350 million tons, which will give us, more than the volumes, it will give us flexibility to operate under different market conditions, plus growing VBM, especially going in copper, right. So one of the key mandates that Shaun has is how can we bring copper volumes sooner, especially given the endowment that Vale has.

    謝謝,魯道夫。古斯塔沃在這裡。感謝您的良好祝愿。是的,看,我認為我們的思考方式是在三個關鍵槓桿下。一,就投資組合而言,我們已經討論過這一點,但我們正在努力恢復產能,我們認為我們可以以非常增值的方式增加我們的鐵礦石投資組合,使其達到 3.5 億噸,這不僅會為我們帶來銷量,也將為我們帶來在不同市場條件下營運的靈活性,以及​​不斷增長的VBM,尤其是銅,對吧。因此,肖恩面臨的關鍵任務之一是我們如何更快地實現銅產量,特別是考慮到淡水河谷擁有的資源。

  • So that is going to be a key element of our strategy. And we will push that agenda forward in a very decisive way. The other one which is super important, and you've seen some of it already in this quarter, is to really drive a performance-oriented culture within Vale, right? So we appreciated -- we lost to some competitiveness over the last years as a result of many things, including some of the constraints we had in our operations.

    因此,這將成為我們策略的關鍵要素。我們將以非常果斷的方式推動這項議程。另一個非常重要的問題是在淡水河谷內部真正推動以績效為導向的文化,對吧?因此,我們很感激 - 由於許多原因,包括我們在營運中遇到的一些限制,我們在過去幾年中失去了一些競爭力。

  • But I'm very optimistic we'll be able to drive the company back into a much more competitive environment, lowering our C1, we talked about that, right, lowering our C1 below $20. So we will push that agenda forward. And I'm very optimistic about our ability to deliver on that.

    但我非常樂觀,我們將能夠推動公司回到一個更具競爭力的環境,降低我們的 C1,我們討論過這一點,對吧,將我們的 C1 降低到 20 美元以下。因此,我們將推動該議程。我對我們實現這一目標的能力非常樂觀。

  • And the third one, which is probably a more short-term focus is how can we continue to build strong and trustworthy relationships with the several stakeholders that we have. And I'm very happy with the solution that we just announced the settlement of Mariana is an element towards that future.

    第三個可能是更短期的焦點是我們如何繼續與我們擁有的幾個利害關係人建立牢固和值得信賴的關係。我對我們剛剛宣布的解決方案感到非常滿意,馬裡亞納的定居是實現這一未來的一個因素。

  • So I'm being very focused on resolving those issues because we know they weighed on the stock, and we're working very hard to resolve them. So that agenda is going to be super important for me, for my leadership team, so we can bring the key stakeholders along our journey.

    因此,我非常專注於解決這些問題,因為我們知道它們給股票帶來了壓力,而且我們正在非常努力地解決這些問題。因此,這個議程對我和我的領導團隊來說非常重要,這樣我們就可以讓主要利害關係人參與我們的旅程。

  • So with that, I'll pass to Rogério to go on the commercial strategy.

    因此,我將讓 Rogério 繼續制定商業策略。

  • Rogério Nogueira - Interim EVP, Iron Ore Solutions

    Rogério Nogueira - Interim EVP, Iron Ore Solutions

  • Hello, Rodolfo. Good to hear from you. I guess when we talk about portfolio strategy, we should divide it in short-term and long-term. I guess in the short-term, we will focus more on optimizing our project -- our product portfolio and in maximizing value. In the long-term, it has to do a lot with the decarbonization of the steel industry, and how we position ourselves to be so the primary supplier for the decarbonized steelmaking industry or the steel industry.

    你好,魯道夫。很高興收到你的來信。我想當我們談論投資組合策略時,我們應該將其分為短期和長期。我想在短期內,我們將更專注於優化我們的專案——我們的產品組合和價值最大化。從長遠來看,這與鋼鐵業的脫碳以及我們如何定位自己成為脫碳煉鋼業或鋼鐵業的主要供應商有很大關係。

  • And then, I think I'd like to highlight that when you talk about portfolio optimization in the short-term, we talk a lot about iron ore premiums. And as you know it; our premiums depend a lot on steel margins, which are currently low. But based on our market outlook, we believe that there is a potential upside. But I think, more than that, we believe that we do have a lot of action in terms of product portfolio. And what we're trying to do and trying to build is a portfolio which is flexible, that we can adjust to maximize value. I think, here, it is important that we make it clear that our objective function is value maximization.

    然後,我想我想強調,當你談論短期投資組合優化時,我們談論了很多鐵礦石溢價。正如你所知;我們的保費很大程度取決於鋼鐵利潤率,目前鋼鐵利潤率很低。但根據我們的市場前景,我們認為有潛在的上漲空間。但我認為,更重要的是,我們相信我們在產品組合方面確實有很多行動。我們正在努力做和嘗試建立的是一個靈活的投資組合,我們可以調整它以實現價值最大化。我認為,在這裡,重要的是我們要明確我們的目標函數是價值最大化。

  • More specifically, I think understanding, for example, the total balance of Fe content, silica, alumina -- alumina to silica ratio in the global market is going to be fundamental for quick portfolio adjustment. Just to give an example, as of today, we have very high silica penalties at $4.70 per ton for every -- each percentage point of silica. So we would like, for example, to work and reduce our offering of high-silica products, and then reduce that kind of impact. Not only that, but we also may take advantage of our higher production of high-quality pellet feed from Brucutu, Vargem Grande wet processing, and more production from Carajás.

    更具體地說,我認為了解全球市場中鐵含量、二氧化矽、氧化鋁的總平衡——氧化鋁與二氧化矽的比率對於快速調整投資組合至關重要。舉個例子,截至今天,我們對二氧化矽的處罰非常高,每噸二氧化矽的每個百分點為 4.70 美元。例如,我們希望努力減少高矽產品的供應,然後減少這種影響。不僅如此,我們還可以利用 Brucutu、Vargem Grande 濕式加工的高品質顆粒飼料產量以及 Carajás 的更多產量。

  • Ultimately, I think we believe that the understanding of the global market combined with our flexibility is going to allow us to optimize, maximize value in the short-term. So we are very much driven by our value maximization and our flexible product portfolio.

    最終,我認為我們相信,對全球市場的了解與我們的靈活性相結合將使我們能夠在短期內優化、最大化價值。因此,我們的價值最大化和靈活的產品組合在很大程度上推動著我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Daniel Sasson, Itau BBA.

    丹尼爾‧薩森 (Daniel Sasson),伊塔烏 BBA。

  • Daniel Sasson - Analyst

    Daniel Sasson - Analyst

  • Thank you. Thank you so much, everyone. Good luck on your new role, Gustavo. It's also good to hear you again, Rogério. My first question would be related to the, and first of all, first and foremost, congratulations on signing the agreement for the resettlement agreement for Samarco, definitely a win-win situation for the populations and for Vale that can move ahead from this chapter. In regards to that, I'd like to know your perceptions, Gustavo, if anything has changed at all in regards to the discussions ongoing in the UK and the Netherlands related to the legal proceedings going on related to Samarco, if you could give us an update on that and also on the talks with the government related to the renewal of the railway concessions, I think that would be great.

    謝謝。非常感謝大家。古斯塔沃,祝你的新角色好運。很高興再次聽到你的聲音,Rogério。我的第一個問題與首先祝賀簽署薩馬科重新安置協議有關,這對人民和淡水河谷來說絕對是一個雙贏的局面,可以從本章繼續前進。就此而言,古斯塔沃,我想知道您的看法,英國和荷蘭正在進行的與薩馬科相關​​法律訴訟有關的討論是否有任何變化,您是否可以給我們提供信息關於這一點的最新情況以及與政府有關更新鐵路特許權的談判的最新情況,我認為那就太好了。

  • And maybe my second question would be related to your expanded net debt target, the $10 billion to $20 billion target was set at a different time for value, right? A lot of other things that were going on, but maybe now that you will have a clearer view on your disbursements for Mariana, for instance, over the next years, if you could think about changing that target, if it makes sense at all to even discuss that, or if you remain comfortable with your $10 billion to $20 billion expended on that target for the time being? Thank you so much.

    也許我的第二個問題與擴大的淨債務目標有關,100 億至 200 億美元的目標是在不同時間設定的,對嗎?還有很多其他事情正在發生,但也許現在你會對瑪麗安娜的支出有更清晰的看法,例如,在接下來的幾年裡,如果你可以考慮改變這個目標,如果它有意義的話甚至討論這個問題,或者您是否對目前在該目標上花費的100 億至200 億美元感到滿意?太感謝了。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Thank you, Daniel. So let me go over a couple items of your question and then probably send to Alex to complement, especially the UK case. So the decision today and the signing of the agreement today is an important step and we always believed, and I think today we are able to validate that the right jurisdiction for the settlement was in Brazil and we are able to successfully achieve that. So we think that that is the right jurisdiction and where the decision needs to be hold and delivered. So we are happy with the outcome that we're able to achieve today. I'll ask Alex after my answer here to also compliment if I missed anything.

    謝謝你,丹尼爾。因此,讓我回顧一下您問題中的幾個項目,然後可能會發送給亞歷克斯進行補充,尤其是英國的案例。因此,今天的決定和今天簽署的協議是重要的一步,我們始終相信,我認為今天我們能夠驗證和解的正確管轄權在巴西,我們能夠成功實現這一目標。因此,我們認為這是正確的司法管轄區,也是需要做出和做出決定的地方。因此,我們對今天能夠取得的成果感到滿意。如果我錯過了什麼,我會在回答完後請亞歷克斯表揚。

  • On the renewal, the concession renewal, we have advanced, as we've mentioned before, a lot on the potential agreement with the government, with the potential settlement. I'm optimistic we'll be able to finalize that item as well. There're some internal procedures and legal procedures that needs to be followed. So we are hopeful that by year-end we'll be able to resolve that discussion.

    在續約、特許權續約方面,正如我們之前提到的,我們已經就與政府的潛在協議以及潛在的和解達成了許多進展。我很樂觀我們也能夠最終確定該項目。有一些內部程序和法律程序需要遵守。因此,我們希望到年底我們能夠解決該討論。

  • And finally, on the expanded net debt concept, I think it's early for us to revisit. I think the concept as designed served us well and I think it was the right one. So for now we are keeping and you can always revisit, but today we think that's the right metric and the right range for us to operate under. So I'll ask Alex to compliment my answer on the UK case, Alex please.

    最後,關於擴大的淨債務概念,我認為我們現在重新審視還為時過早。我認為設計的概念對我們很有幫助,而且我認為這是正確的。因此,目前我們正在保留,您可以隨時重新訪問,但今天我們認為這是我們營運的正確指標和正確範圍。所以我會請亞歷克斯稱讚我對英國案例的回答,請亞歷克斯。

  • Alexandre Silva D'Ambrosio - Executive Vice President - Corporate and External Affairs

    Alexandre Silva D'Ambrosio - Executive Vice President - Corporate and External Affairs

  • Thank you, Gustavo, and thank you, Daniel, for the question. Let's start by speaking about the UK case. The trial on the UK case started last week, many people are aware of that and it is ongoing for the next few weeks. The UK trial deals with compensation for individuals, but that issue itself will only be discussed next year, so it is a long discussion still about whether BHP holding can be liable for Samarco. So that is a discussion underway.

    謝謝古斯塔沃,也謝謝丹尼爾提出的問題。我們先來談談英國的案例。英國案件的審判已於上週開始,許多人都知道這一點,並且審判將在接下來的幾週內持續進行。英國的審判涉及個人賠償,但這個問題本身要到明年才能討論,因此必和必拓控股是否應對薩馬科承擔責任仍是一個漫長的討論。所以這是一個正在進行的討論。

  • Now, the issues that are being discussed about compensation in the UK that will be discussed about compensation are fully covered by the Brazil settlement that we signed today and for that reason we understand that the position for the defendants will be much strengthen in UK also not only because the claimants will have a streamlined settlement option in the Brazil agreement, but mostly because the Brazil agreement deconstructs the lawyers' principal argument in the UK, which is that these types of issues are not readily resolved in Brazil.

    現在,我們今天簽署的巴西和解協議完全涵蓋了英國正在討論的有關賠償的問題,也將討論有關賠償的問題,因此我們知道,被告在英國的地位也將得到大大加強。在巴西協議中擁有簡化的解決方案,但主要是因為巴西協議解構了英國律師的主要論點,即此類問題在巴西不容易解決。

  • And this has just -- the agreement disproves that point and proves that in fact resolution is possible and it's efficient and fast. The Netherlands claim as you mentioned that will only begin in the middle of next year. The first hearings in court will be in the next year and the issue of whether there is jurisdiction over Vale has yet to be addressed. So that is really far along the road.

    而這只是——該協議反駁了這一點,並證明事實上解決方案是可能的,而且是高效和快速的。正如你所提到的,荷蘭聲稱這要到明年年中才開始。首次法庭聽證會將於明年舉行,淡水河谷是否擁有管轄權的問題尚未解決。所以說,這條路還很遙遠。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leonardo Correa, BTG.

    萊昂納多·科雷亞,BTG。

  • Leonardo Correa - Analyst

    Leonardo Correa - Analyst

  • Good afternoon, everyone. So a couple of questions on my side, the first one on cash costs for INR, clearly significant progress, right, over the past quarters. The message is that you guys are confident in reaching a low angle of guidance at $21. And Gustavo, you mentioned in your introduction that you're confident of reaching sub $20 going forward. Just to try to get a bit of your sense, I mean, is this possible already in 2025? I mean, you have a series of initiatives. You also have volume gradually ramping up, a bit more volumes. So I just wanted to hear you on that front if those targets are achievable in 2025.

    大家下午好。因此,我這邊有幾個問題,第一個是關於印度盧比的現金成本,在過去的幾個季度中,顯然取得了重大進展,對吧。傳達的訊息是,你們有信心達到 21 美元的低指導角度。Gustavo,您在介紹中提到您有信心未來達到 20 美元以下。只是為了讓您了解一下,我的意思是,這在 2025 年是否可能實現?我的意思是,你們有一系列舉措。你的音量也會逐漸增加,稍微增加一點。所以我只是想聽聽您在這方面的看法,這些目標是否可以在 2025 年實現。

  • My second question on nickel, right, specifically on the Energy Transition business, there clearly is a dual speed happening, right? I mean, copper, which is the focus, which needs to be the focus, super bright long term. I think every single mine in the world is super bullish on copper, rightfully So right? I mean, it is warranted. On the nickel side of the business, I mean, clearly there's a tone down from Vale, at least in my view, in my perception, over the last quarters. Nickel prices haven't been helping, of course, but in this environment where EBITDA is negative on some lines and clearly there is room for some streamlining. I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what exactly you guys are thinking for nickel and whether capacity cuts are on the decks here considering this pressured environment. Thank you.

    我關於鎳的第二個問題,對吧,特別是關於能源轉型業務,顯然正在發生雙速,對吧?我的意思是,銅,這是焦點,需要成為焦點,長遠來看超級明亮。我認為世界上每個礦場都非常看好銅,這是理所當然的,對嗎?我的意思是,這是有保證的。我的意思是,在業務的鎳方面,淡水河谷顯然在過去幾季的語氣有所下降,至少在我看來,在我看來。當然,鎳價並沒有起到任何幫助作用,但在這種環境下,EBITDA 在某些方面為負,並且顯然還有一些精簡的空間。我只是想聽聽你們對鎳的具體想法,以及考慮到這種壓力環境,是否會削減產能。謝謝。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Thanks, Leo. So I will do the first one and a little bit of the second one, but I also want to have Shaun and take the benefit of having Shaun on the line for him to also talk about the nickel one.

    謝謝,利奧。所以我會做第一個,然後做第二個,但我也想讓肖恩來,並利用肖恩在線的好處,讓他也談談鎳的問題。

  • Look, in terms of cost, what I meant of coming below 20 is by 2026, which is that prior guidance we have given. The more I look into our cost base, the more confident I get on our ability to get to that point. And as I mentioned, this is going to be a key priority of mine. The one thing we have to appreciate is, there are several levers to get us to a more efficient position. One is, in the last couple of years, we've introduced a series of processes or new processes to deal with restrictions that we had in our operations.

    看,就成本而言,我的意思是到 2026 年低於 20,這是我們之前給出的指導。我對我們的成本基礎了解得越多,我對我們達到這個目標的能力就越有信心。正如我所提到的,這將是我的首要任務。我們必須欣賞的一件事是,有幾個槓桿可以讓我們達到更有效率的位置。一是,在過去幾年中,我們引入了一系列流程或新流程來應對我們在營運中遇到的限制。

  • So the team today knows a lot more about how to manage those processes than they use it to do. And that is, we are seeing a lot of improvements in our ability to remove costs from the system just by operating better, right? There is the benefit of ramping up production. We just reset guidance to 323 to 330, but we've said we want to get to 350 with higher quality and some volume coming from the north. That also helps us to drive the unit cost down. Plus, the regular efficient programs that we've been pursuing and it is getting more and more mature by the day. That is what makes me feel confident and we are seeing some of it this year. We have pointed to the low end of the C1 guidance, which just I think highlights that we are on the right track.

    因此,今天的團隊對如何管理這些流程的了解比他們實際使用的要多得多。也就是說,我們看到我們透過更好的營運來消除系統成本的能力有了很大的提高,對嗎?提高產量是有好處的。我們剛剛將指導值重設為 323 至 330,但我們說過我們希望達到 350,品質更高,並且來自北方的產量增加。這也有助於我們降低單位成本。另外,我們一直在追求的定期高效計劃,並且正在變得越來越成熟。這讓我充滿信心,今年我們也看到了一些這樣的情況。我們已經指出了 C1 指引的低端,我認為這凸顯了我們正走在正確的軌道上。

  • On nickel, look, we continue to believe that nickel is critical for the Energy Transition and has a space on that. Certainly we have to make sure we have the right portfolio of nickel given market conditions and be as efficient as possible to navigate and be profitable through the cycle, right, that's one of the key mandates that Shaun has, but I'll stop here, I'd love to hear also his thoughts about it.

    在鎳方面,我們仍然認為鎳對於能源轉型至關重要,並且在這方面有空間。當然,我們必須確保在考慮到市場條件的情況下,我們擁有正確的鎳投資組合,並儘可能高效地在整個週期中導航並盈利,對吧,這是肖恩的關鍵任務之一,但我就到此為止,我也很想聽聽他對此的想法。

  • Shaun Usmar - CEO, Vale Base Metals Ltd

    Shaun Usmar - CEO, Vale Base Metals Ltd

  • Sure, thanks. And Leonardo, thanks for the question. You have the distinction of being my first value-based metals question on an earnings call, so thanks. Gustavo has touched on the high points and I think, we've just gone through a quarterly high from a unit cost perspective with some of the maintenance on -- in Sudbury, which was scheduled.

    當然,謝謝。萊昂納多,謝謝你的提問。您是我在財報電話會議上提出的第一個基於價值的金屬問題,所以謝謝。古斯塔沃已經觸及了高點,我認為,從單位成本的角度來看,我們剛剛經歷了季度高點,並計劃在薩德伯里進行一些維護。

  • You would have seen a lot of significant investment that has been occurring in this space. And some of the initiatives that have been put in place across the business from a productivity point of view with Mark Cutifani and the management team, which we're seeing bearing fruit, 20% to 30% productivity improvements, lots of opportunity for fixed cost dilution. And So this is a long-term capital deployment business.

    您會看到這個領域發生了很多重大投資。Mark Cutifani 和管理團隊從生產力的角度在整個企業實施了一些舉措,我們看到這些舉措取得了成果,生產力提高了 20% 到 30%,固定成本有很多機會稀釋。所以這是一項長期的資本配置業務。

  • We're seeing roughly 40% of the cost curve at the moment underwater. And you are seeing supply being curtailed in certain areas. At the end of the day, we have a strategically significant business, particularly from a Western lens, which has probably one of the best mineral endowments I've seen in my career. It is underexplored, underutilized.

    目前我們看到大約 40% 的成本曲線位於水下。您會發現某些地區的供應正在減少。歸根結底,我們擁有一項具有戰略意義的業務,特別是從西方的角度來看,它可能擁有我職業生涯中見過的最好的礦產資源之一。它尚未得到充分開發和利用。

  • And I think the opportunity for us to allocate capital wisely while doing a lot more to continue to drive cost reductions, productivity improvements, and maximize value for this business through the cycle is really what the priority looks like. And we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that really what we're talking about, we talk about nickel, but the vast portion of this -- of this particular part of the portfolio is polymetallic. We've got a lot of gold in PGMs. Gold is at record prices, more or less.

    我認為,我們有機會明智地分配資本,同時採取更多措施,繼續推動成本降低、生產力提高,並在整個週期中實現該業務價值最大化,這才是我們的首要任務。我們不應該忽視這樣一個事實:我們真正談論的是鎳,但其中的很大一部分——投資組合的這個特定部分是多金屬。我們有很多鉑族金屬黃金。黃金價格或多或少處於創紀錄的水平。

  • And So I think for this -- this phenomenon to continue and for us to unlock value, particularly at this point in the cycle, is really the focus for us. And I think beyond this, there's a huge amount of underappreciated optionality as we look at this portfolio. And that's our job to do, is really to unlock that and reveal that to the market. So I hope that answers your question.

    因此,我認為這種現象繼續下去並讓我們釋放價值,特別是在周期的這個階段,確實是我們關注的焦點。我認為除此之外,當我們審視這個投資組合時,還有大量被低估的選擇。這就是我們要做的工作,真正解鎖並向市場展示它。所以我希望這能回答你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

    卡約·裡貝羅,美國銀行。

  • Caio Ribeiro - Analyst

    Caio Ribeiro - Analyst

  • Great, thank you. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is on cash return perspectives ahead, right? With the final agreement related to Mariana, the company still has its expanded net debt below $20 billion. Yet, the obligations of disbursement related to Mariana, Brumadinho, decharacterization, they amount to nearly $3.7 billion over 2025, which reduce in a material way the company's free cash flow generation potential for that year, right?

    太好了,謝謝。謝謝你給我這個機會。所以我的第一個問題是關於未來的現金回報前景,對嗎?隨著與瑪麗安娜相關的最終協議的達成,該公司擴大後的淨債務仍低於 200 億美元。然而,與瑪麗安娜、布魯馬迪尼奧、去特徵化相關的支付義務,到 2025 年將達到近 37 億美元,這將大幅減少該公司當年的自由現金流產生潛力,對嗎?

  • And I know that from an expanded net debt perspective, the disbursements related to Mariana and Brumadinho should in theory be neutral, right? As you're disbursing the cash to cover those obligations, yet as you disburse those amounts, you reduce your provisioned amount, which is reflected in your expanded net debt, right? Yet, if you look at it solely from a free cash flow perspective, there is a cash disbursement related to those items that reduces the free cash flow yield which the company ultimately can deliver.

    我知道,從擴大的淨債務角度來看,與瑪麗安娜和布魯馬迪尼奧相關的支出理論上應該是中性的,對嗎?當您支付現金來償還這些債務時,當您支付這些金額時,您會減少撥備金額,這反映在您擴大的淨債務中,對嗎?然而,如果您僅從自由現金流的角度來看,您會發現與這些項目相關的現金支出會降低公司最終可以交付的自由現金流收益率。

  • So my question is, will you look solely to your expanded net debt level in an isolated manner to determine whether you can announce or you announced an extraordinary dividend ahead, or will you also look at that free cash flow yield incorporating those obligations related to Mariana, Brumadinho, and decharacterization to make that decision, right?

    所以我的問題是,您是否會僅以孤立的方式關注擴大的淨債務水平,以確定您是否可以宣布或宣布未來的特別股息,或者您是否還會考慮包含與瑪麗安娜相關的義務的自由現金流收益率、布魯馬迪尼奧和去特徵化來做出這個決定,對吧?

  • And then a second question on a different topic here. Vale had the JV structure with Ero Copper, the Furnas project, which depends on exploratory success. And you also have that fund that was recently established to develop further these types of partnerships. So my question is, other than for copper assets, could you use that model of partnerships JVs for iron ore as well within Brazil? Thank you.

    然後是關於不同主題的第二個問題。淡水河谷與 Ero Copper 建立了合資結構,即 Furnas 項目,這取決於探索性的成功。您還擁有最近成立的基金,以進一步發展此類合作夥伴關係。所以我的問題是,除了銅資產之外,您是否可以在巴西境內使用這種鐵礦石合資模式?謝謝。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Okay. Starting with the expanded net debt concept, right? Look, in fact, we always look at the free cash flow projection for the company under different scenarios to make that assessment. And then, judge how we allocate our cap, right? So the net debt or the expanded net debt concept is one of the elements, but we look into others, and we look at, especially to your point, where the expected cash flow generation of the company is vis-à-vis the commitments we have. And if we have an opportunity to remunerate our shareholders, we'll do as we've been doing over the years. So that is the way we look at several variables before making those decisions, not only one.

    好的。從擴大的淨債務概念開始,對吧?事實上,我們總是根據公司在不同情況下的自由現金流預測來進行評估。然後,判斷我們如何分配我們的上限,對嗎?因此,淨債務或擴大的淨債務概念是要素之一,但我們研究了其他要素,我們研究了,特別是您的觀點,公司的預期現金流量生成與我們的承諾相對應。如果我們有機會回報股東,我們就會像多年來一直在做的那樣。因此,這就是我們在做出決定之前考慮多個變數的方式,而不僅僅是一個。

  • In terms of partnerships and funds, those ones are transactions where we can accelerate our access to offtake and volume, where it makes sense for Vale to instead of doing ourselves, having someone to do, and we benefit from that partnership. In many of the case, or most of the other cases, we do ourselves, especially in VBM.

    就合作夥伴關係和資金而言,這些交易是我們可以加速獲得承購量和銷售的交易,對淡水河谷來說,我們可以從這種合作關係中受益,而不是自己做,而是讓別人來做。在許多情況下,或者大多數其他情況下,我們都是自己做的,尤其是在 VBM 中。

  • On iron ore, I think there is less of that opportunity. I think you've seen us doing some of the -- we call them, mini minas; mini mines, as those are small mines where we don't think we are as competitive as our competitors to develop. And therefore, we pursue some sort of commercial agreement with them to be able to have access to those volumes, especially higher quality materials. So we will continue to think about that one. But I would say it's probably under a different format as compared to the way we look at base metals.

    在鐵礦石方面,我認為這種機會較少。我想你已經看到我們做了一些——我們稱之為“迷你米納斯”;小型礦山,因為這些都是小型礦山,我們認為我們的開發競爭力不如競爭對手。因此,我們尋求與他們達成某種商業協議,以便能夠獲得這些數量,特別是更高品質的材料。所以我們將繼續思考這個問題。但我想說,與我們看待基本金屬的方式相比,它可能採用不同的格式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.

    拉斐爾·巴塞洛斯,布拉德斯科 BBI。

  • Rafael Barcellos - Analyst

    Rafael Barcellos - Analyst

  • Hello. Thanks for taking my questions. And, of course, good luck, Gustavo. Congratulations for the results and for the definitive settlement. Also, Rogério, good to hear from you again. And then my first question, Gustavo, could you please share with us your thoughts on how the regulatory environment for mining activity in Brazil is evolving? Other than that, how are the discussions related to a new cave decree in Brazil or even the modernization of these cave regulation and, of course, whether you believe that it could happen in the coming years?

    你好。感謝您回答我的問題。當然,祝你好運,古斯塔沃。祝賀結果和最終和解。另外,Rogério,很高興再次收到您的來信。然後我的第一個問題,古斯塔沃,您能否與我們分享您對巴西採礦活動監管環境如何演變的看法?除此之外,討論與巴西新的洞穴法令或甚至這些洞穴法規的現代化有何關係,當然,您是否相信這可能在未來幾年發生?

  • And then my second question is about the base metals vision, as this is the -- Shaun -- first conference call at Vale, Shaun, good luck. So Shaun, if you could share with us your first impressions, the many opportunities that you see at Vale Base Metals, I mean it could be very interesting? Thank you.

    然後我的第二個問題是關於賤金屬的願景,因為這是肖恩在淡水河谷舉行的第一次電話會議,肖恩,祝你好運。那麼肖恩,如果您能與我們分享您的第一印象,您在淡水河谷賤金屬公司看到的許多機會,我的意思是這可能會非常有趣?謝謝。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Thanks, Rafael. So let me do the first one, and then Shaun can step in. Look, as you know, Brazil has an enormous potential in terms of mineral potential, right. Not only by having the highest quality iron ore in the planet, but also by having a lot of deposits for our Energy Transition Metals commodities, right. So in our push, and our discussion has been how can we accelerate those development as a country. And many of those require discussion and modernization, for example, as you've mentioned on the cave decree, right, and the legislation of it. I'm optimistic that we'll be able to advance on those discussions.

    謝謝,拉斐爾。所以讓我做第一個,然後肖恩可以介入。如您所知,巴西在礦產潛力方面擁有巨大的潛力,對吧。不僅擁有地球上最高品質的鐵礦石,而且還擁有大量能源過渡金屬商品礦藏,對吧。因此,在我們的推動和討論中,我們一直在討論如何加速國家的發展。其中許多需要討論和現代化,例如,正如您在洞穴法令及其立法中提到的那樣。我對我們能夠推進這些討論感到樂觀。

  • I think there is a recognition that the current legislation can be improved by all parties. And we are hopeful that this is going to be addressed in the near-future, hopefully sooner rather than later. And that will be fundamental for us to unlock the potential that we have in the country, and the potential that Vale has to grow on those commodities.

    我認為各方都認識到現行立法可以改進。我們希望這個問題能夠在不久的將來解決,希望越早越好。這對於我們釋放我們在該國的潛力以及淡水河谷在這些商品上的成長潛力至關重要。

  • So I'll pass to Shaun for the second question. Shaun, we can't hear you. I don't know if you are speaking.

    那我將請肖恩回答第二個問題。肖恩,我們聽不見你說話。我不知道你是否在說話。

  • Shaun Usmar - CEO, Vale Base Metals Ltd

    Shaun Usmar - CEO, Vale Base Metals Ltd

  • Okay, thank you. Rafael, thank you. Look, the vision after three-and-a-half weeks, I think, is very similar to the reason I took on this opportunity with the Vale Base Metals, which is honestly, I believe, that it's probably one of the most underappreciated assets of its kind in the battery metals or energy metals space. If you're building a business like this, one of the biggest barriers that people or organizations face is ultimately the mineral endowment. It all starts with the geology. I spent three days with the GMs and some of the business leaders last week, and I'd say that I walked away from that time -- actually it exceeded my most optimistic assumptions on the potential.

    好的,謝謝。拉斐爾,謝謝你。看,我認為,三週半後的願景與我接受淡水河谷賤金屬這個機會的原因非常相似,老實說,我相信,它可能是最被低估的資產之一電池金屬或能源金屬領域的同類產品。如果您要建立這樣的企業,個人或組織面臨的最大障礙之一最終是礦產資源。這一切都始於地質學。上週我與總經理和一些商業領袖一起度過了三天,我想說我已經離開了那段時間——實際上它超出了我對潛力最樂觀的假設。

  • And I think therein lines the opportunity for us as we look to allocate capital and run this business as efficiently as we can. Now, Gustavo has already pointed out that, particularly in Brazil, everybody loves copper. It's very difficult to find high-quality copper assets. This business has an underappreciated and incredible mineral endowments in Brazil. And even prior to this call, we're working already with the team trying to see, if we remove the constraints, what's our ability to be able to actually unlock and partnership the opportunities with government and other stakeholders that mineral potential.

    我認為這對我們來說是一個機會,因為我們希望盡可能有效地分配資本並經營這項業務。現在,古斯塔沃已經指出,尤其是在巴西,每個人都喜歡銅。尋找優質銅資產非常困難。該業務在巴西擁有未被充分重視且令人難以置信的礦產資源。甚至在這次電話會議之前,我們就已經與團隊合作,試圖了解如果我們消除限制,我們能夠真正釋放並與政府和其他利益相關者合作挖掘潛力的機會。

  • We've got the established businesses like Salobo and Sossego. Salobo has opened at depth and open in various directions. And then we've got so many other opportunities in that particular district to embark upon looking at hubs, and other things to unlock some of that mineral wealth.

    我們擁有 Salobo 和 Sossego 等老牌企業。薩洛博深度開放,多方位開放。然後,我們在該特定地區還有很多其他機會開始尋找樞紐,以及其他可以釋放部分礦產財富的事情。

  • And So I guess for me, as we look at it this time, in a business where people are trying to buy what we've got, our chance is to really unlock the productivity cost and other things that are within our control, and ultimately unlock the value in the longer term that exists in this portfolio, and then go beyond that once we've been able to achieve that. I think we really have the foundation to create a true sector leader in time.

    所以我想對我來說,當我們這次審視這個問題時,在一個人們試圖購買我們所擁有的東西的企業中,我們的機會是真正釋放生產力成本和我們控制範圍內的其他事情,並最終釋放該投資組合中存在的長期價值,然後在我們能夠實現這一目標後超越該價值。我認為我們確實具備及時創造真正產業領導者的基礎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Marina Calero, RBC.

    瑪麗娜·卡萊羅,加拿大皇家銀行。

  • Marina Calero - Analyst

    Marina Calero - Analyst

  • Good afternoon. Thanks for the call. I have a follow-up question on your corporate strategy. Is it fair to assume that you are focused on your internal growth opportunities? Or would you be open to grow inorganically as well?

    午安.感謝您的來電。我有一個關於你們公司策略的後續問題。假設您專注於內在成長機會是否公平?或者您也願意接受無機成長嗎?

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Thanks, Marina. Go ahead, Shaun

    謝謝,瑪麗娜。繼續吧,肖恩

  • Shaun Usmar - CEO, Vale Base Metals Ltd

    Shaun Usmar - CEO, Vale Base Metals Ltd

  • Yeah, Marina, thanks. Look, I come out of businesses like Estrada that essentially grew through M&A, and I've spent a large part of my career doing M&A. When I look at the M&A landscape, every business has to have their capability and always look at different times of the cycle through a make or buy lens. But I think just going back to my earlier answer, our biggest and most valuable opportunity is the one that we actually have. And So I think, certainly for the foreseeable future, although we will always continue to look at what's in the market, I think we really have a lot of what the market is looking for. And it's incumbent upon us to be able to actually capture and unlock that value.

    是的,瑪麗娜,謝謝。看,我來自像埃斯特拉達這樣的企業,這些企業本質上是透過併購發展起來的,而且我職業生涯的很大一部分時間都在進行併購。當我審視併購情勢時,每個企業都必須擁有自己的能力,並且始終透過自製或外購的視角來看待週期的不同時期。但我認為回到我之前的回答,我們最大、最有價值的機會是我們實際擁有的機會。因此,我認為,當然在可預見的未來,儘管我們將始終繼續關注市場上的產品,但我認為我們確實擁有許多市場正在尋找的產品。我們有責任真正捕捉並釋放這價值。

  • I would go so far as to say I suspect most of the organizations, from what I can see, that model Vale really haven't got visibility of the pipeline when you look at your own net asset value breakdowns and the opportunity set that this business has. That's part of our job, is not only to deliver that and to show this quarter-on-quarter and beyond, but really to showcase that potential, which I think is invisible at this stage.

    我甚至可以說,從我所看到的情況來看,我懷疑大多數組織,當你查看自己的淨資產價值細目以及該業務的機會集時,淡水河谷的模型確實沒有了解管道的可見性。這是我們工作的一部分,不僅是要實現這一目標並展示季度環比及以後的業績,而且要真正展示這種潛力,我認為在現階段這種潛力是看不見的。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • I would just compliment and I would echo Shaun's view, especially given where we trade at currently. It is hard for us to do any transaction that makes sense for our shareholders. Now, the unique advantage of our portfolio is the endowment in base metals, as he's mentioned, is C1, but also in iron ore.

    我只是稱讚並贊同肖恩的觀點,特別是考慮到我們目前的交易情況。我們很難做任何對股東有意義的交易。現在,我們投資組合的獨特優勢是基本金屬的禀賦,正如他所提到的,是 C1,但也有鐵礦石。

  • So I think we can make a lot more money and generate a lot more value to our shareholders by developing our own endowment. And sometimes there'll be an opportunity for us to share infrastructure and do deals that are creative for both partners, like the one we did recently at Minas-Rio. That is an example of deals that we like to do. It's capital-light, if you will, and those deals make sense. Large deals or things differently from that are harder for us to do, and I'd rather put our money to do our own development.

    因此,我認為透過發展我們自己的捐贈,我們可以賺更多的錢,為股東創造更多的價值。有時我們將有機會分享基礎設施並達成對雙方都有創意的交易,就像我們最近在米納斯里約熱內盧所做的那樣。這是我們喜歡做的交易的一個例子。如果你願意的話,它是輕資本的,而且這些交易是有意義的。大的交易或與此不同的事情對我們來說更難做,我寧願把錢花在我們自己的發展上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

    蒂姆納坦納斯,沃爾夫研究。

  • Timna Tanners - Analyst

    Timna Tanners - Analyst

  • Yes, thanks. Good afternoon. Happy Friday. I wanted to start out asking about CapEx just because, as you point out in the bridge, there's quite a bit of a gap or a big amount that needs to be spent to meet your target in Q4. So is that happening, or should we think about a maybe lighter spend?

    是的,謝謝。午安.星期五快樂。我想先詢問資本支出,因為正如您在橋樑中指出的那樣,為了實現第四季度的目標,需要花費相當大的差距或大量資金。那麼這種情況是否正在發生,或者我們是否應該考慮減少支出?

  • And then, a bigger picture question I had was just the comment I heard earlier about how you had confidence that global steel margins were going to rebound. And I'm just curious what drives that. It'd be great to get your high-level thinking in light of the property sector challenges. Thanks.

    然後,我遇到的一個更大的問題是我之前聽到的評論,即您對全球鋼鐵利潤率將反彈有何信心。我只是好奇是什麼推動了這一點。鑑於房地產行業的挑戰,如果您能夠進行高層次的思考,那就太好了。謝謝。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Hey, Timna. Happy Friday for you as well. We are looking to close the year within the guidance of around $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion. So it's looking very much in line with what we had guided throughout the year. There's always some variances within quarters, but you should look at that full-year as the final number we're expecting to deliver in 2024. So I'll pass to Rogério to talk about margins.

    嘿,蒂姆納。也祝你星期五快樂。我們預計今年結束時的營收目標將在 63 億至 65 億美元左右。因此,它看起來非常符合我們全年的指導方針。季度內總是會存在一些差異,但您應該將全年數據視為我們預計在 2024 年交付的最終數字。因此,我將請 Rogério 談談利潤率。

  • Rogério Nogueira - Interim EVP, Iron Ore Solutions

    Rogério Nogueira - Interim EVP, Iron Ore Solutions

  • Hi, Timna. I think when you look into the iron ore market, we do believe that the market will stabilize, but we see potential upsides. On a more broadly basis, on a worldwide basis, we see CSP, crude steel production reaching 1.9 billion tons, with China being responsible for over 1 billion tons in 2024. And we do expect the same figures for 2025.

    嗨,蒂姆納。我認為,當你研究鐵礦石市場時,我們確實相信市場將會穩定,但我們看到了潛在的上漲空間。從更廣泛的角度來看,在全球範圍內,我們預計光熱發電的粗鋼產量將達到 19 億噸,其中中國的產量到 2024 年將超過 10 億噸。我們確實預期 2025 年會有同樣的數字。

  • And as you know, I think this has been talked all over, the Chinese government is working to boost consumer confidence through fiscal and monetary stimulus, as we all have been hearing about. We believe that with that, steel consumption will stabilize and the decline in fixed asset investments in the property sector will be compensated, will be offset by fixed asset investments in the manufacturing and infrastructure sector. As a result, we expect a stable iron ore supply balance. We currently see inventory levels stable across the whole supply chain. Despite the fact that we see high inventory levels at ports, we see very low inventory levels at the steel mills.

    如你所知,我認為這已經被廣泛討論,中國政府正在努力透過財政和貨幣刺激來提振消費者信心,正如我們都聽說的那樣。我們認為,鋼鐵消費將趨於穩定,房地產業固定資產投資的下降將被製造業和基礎設施業的固定資產投資所抵銷。因此,我們預計鐵礦石供應平衡將保持穩定。目前我們看到整個供應鏈的庫存水準保持穩定。儘管我們看到港口庫存水準很高,但鋼廠的庫存水準非常低。

  • So when we look at it on a more comprehensive basis, we believe that inventory levels are stable. Not only that, but when we look into the cost curve, we see that over 50 million tons of supply have support at $95 per ton in the cost curve, and close to 150 million tons have support at $90. So if prices come down, a lot of capacity, a lot of production, we will leave the market. But more specifically to your question, in the short-term, we see some positive data. If you look into blast furnace utilization, the figures are increasing to 87%.

    因此,當我們更全面地看待它時,我們認為庫存水準是穩定的。不僅如此,當我們研究成本曲線時,我們發現超過5000萬噸的供應量在成本曲線中得到每噸95美元的支撐,接近1.5億噸的供應量在90美元每噸得到支撐。因此,如果價格下降,產能增加,產量增加,我們就會離開市場。但更具體地說,對於你的問題,短期內我們看到了一些正面的數據。如果你看看高爐利用率,這個數字正在增加到 87%。

  • Steel margins are recovering about a plus $20 per ton in rebar. It's about neutral in HRC. And you see some regions, specifically the regions which are -- where they face less competition in China, where we have less steel mills already growing more significantly. Outside China, I think the market or the steel makers are struggling specifically with the Chinese exports. But if that actually exports reduce, demand will still be there, and we believe that they will be growing marginally.

    每噸螺紋鋼的鋼鐵利潤率正在恢復約 20 美元以上。HRC 大約是中性的。你會看到一些地區,特別是那些在中國面臨較少競爭的地區,我們的鋼廠較少,但成長卻更顯著。在中國之外,我認為市場或鋼鐵製造商正在因中國出口而苦苦掙扎。但如果出口確實減少,需求仍然存在,我們相信需求將會小幅成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher LaFemina, Jefferies.

    克里斯多福·拉費米納,傑弗里斯。

  • Christopher LaFemina - Analyst

    Christopher LaFemina - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for taking my question. This is kind of a follow-up to what Timna just asked. If we look at the historic Vale strategy, including in the last quarter, you have at times taken higher cost, lower margin capacity offline. I guess basically the value over volumes approach, which has probably been a pretty supportive factor in the market. And other companies have done this as well.

    嘿,謝謝你回答我的問題。這是蒂姆納剛才問的問題的後續。如果我們回顧淡水河谷的歷史策略,包括上個季度的策略,就會發現有時會取消成本較高、利潤率較低的產能。我想基本上是價值超過數量的方法,這可能是市場的一個相當大的支撐因素。其他公司也這麼做了。

  • And my question then is, how does the strategy change? I mean, if you're shifting your production mix to more higher quality, higher margin ore, does that imply that prices would have to fall further before you took capacity offline? I'm just kind of thinking, not necessarily where the market is going to be in 2024, 2025, or where it might be later in the decade with Simandou coming and with your own production mix shift, BHP has got some growth as well.

    那我的問題是,策略如何改變?我的意思是,如果您將生產組合轉向更高品質、利潤率更高的礦石,這是否意味著在您關閉產能之前價格必須進一步下跌?我只是在思考,不一定是 2024 年、2025 年市場的情況,也不一定是十年後隨著 Simandou 的到來以及你們自己的生產結構轉變,必和必拓也取得了一些增長。

  • And if we are in a scenario where the iron ore market is declining, if demand in China is weakening, and that kind of downside scenario, at what point do we start to see a supply response later in the decade? And again, with your cost going down and Simandou coming online, I'm just concerned that maybe it's not 90 to 100, but it could be considerably lower than that. So that's kind of the question is where the downside would be later in the decade, if demand is indeed declining. Thank you.

    如果我們處於鐵礦石市場下滑的情況下,如果中國的需求正在減弱,以及這種下行情況,那麼我們在十年後什麼時候開始看到供應反應?再說一遍,隨著成本的下降和 Simandou 的上線,我只是擔心也許不是 90 比 100,但可能會比這個低得多。所以問題是,如果需求確實在下降,那麼十年後的下行趨勢會在哪裡。謝謝。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Let me maybe go over a few elements and then Rogério, if you want to add. I think the one thing which I think fundamentally is important is even with Simandou, the amount of depletion that we are seeing in the market is enormous. And the degrading that we are also seeing in the market from our competitors is very relevant. And I think that sometimes it's overlooked. So that's one element to take into consideration. That's why we are not as negative long term with the entrance of Simandou as one would probably be.

    也許讓我回顧一些元素,如果你想補充的話,然後是羅傑裡奧。我認為從根本上來說很重要的一件事是,即使有了西曼杜,我們在市場上看到的消耗量也是巨大的。我們在市場上看到競爭對手的降級也是非常相關的。我認為有時它會被忽視。所以這是需要考慮的因素。這就是為什麼從長遠來看,我們對西芒杜的加入並不像人們可能那樣消極。

  • In terms of the value of a volume strategy, I think they will continue. Certainly, they will continue or not, I think they will continue. The good thing of us resuming capacity is that finally we start to have flexibility. Because post-Brumadinho, we've lost a lot of the flexibility that we had in our offerings.

    就銷售策略的價值而言,我認為它們將繼續下去。當然,無論他們會繼續還是不繼續,我認為他們都會繼續。我們恢復產能的好處是我們終於開始有了彈性。因為在布魯馬迪尼奧之後,我們失去了我們產品中的許多彈性。

  • So now that we are bringing Vargem Grande, Capanema and we are back to 350, more than the volume per se, which is not what we chase, as Rogério said. We will have the ability to then play within the market conditions to maximize value. That flexibility we didn't have just a few years ago.

    因此,現在我們引入了 Vargem Grande、Capanema,我們回到了 350 個數量,超過了數量本身,這不是我們所追求的,正如 Rogério 所說。我們將有能力在市場條件下發揮價值最大化。幾年前我們還沒有這種彈性。

  • And I think now finally we are having, which will give us the ability to remove volumes whenever they don't make sense. We've mentioned this last time, we could have gone beyond 330 million tons. We are removing from the market this year probably seven to eight million tons of high silica products that we could be putting in the market.

    我認為現在我們終於擁有了,這將使我們能夠在任何沒有意義的情況下刪除它們。我們上次提到這一點,我們本來可以超過3.3億噸。今年我們將從市場上撤下可能投放市場的七至八百萬噸高矽產品。

  • And we decided not to do because it's not the right thing to do from the market perspective. So we continue to be extremely disciplined on how we add volume to the market. The beauty of what we are doing here, I think, is the fact that we now have flexibility to play along depending on the different market conditions and we will continue to do so.

    我們決定不這麼做,因為從市場角度來看這不是正確的做法。因此,我們在增加市場交易量方面繼續保持嚴格的紀律。我認為,我們在這裡所做的事情的美妙之處在於,我們現在可以根據不同的市場條件靈活地進行合作,並且我們將繼續這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jon Brandt, HSBC.

    喬恩·布蘭特,匯豐銀行。

  • Jon Brandt - Analyst

    Jon Brandt - Analyst

  • Just one question for me, just as it relates to your overall metals portfolio. Obviously, if we look over the past 20 years, Vale has really transformed into sort of three main metals from many more. But recently we've seen some of your competitors maybe doing some M&A and adding to their product portfolio, either in lithium or fertilizers.

    這只是我的一個問題,因為它與您的整體金屬投資組合有關。顯然,如果我們回顧過去 20 年,淡水河谷確實已經從更多金屬轉變為三種主要金屬。但最近我們看到你們的一些競爭對手可能會進行一些併購,並增加他們的產品組合,無論是鋰還是化肥。

  • So I'm just -- I'm wondering if we look out over the next five to 10 years, are you happy with your portfolio of iron ore, nickel and copper? Or would you look to add things like lithium fertilizers, potentially uranium? I guess that's my question. Thank you.

    所以我只是想知道,如果我們展望未來五到十年,您對鐵礦石、鎳和銅的投資組合感到滿意嗎?或者您會考慮添加鋰肥料(可能還有鈾)之類的東西嗎?我想這就是我的問題。謝謝。

  • Gustavo Pimenta - President

    Gustavo Pimenta - President

  • Hey, Jon. Gustavo here. Look, we are happy with the portfolio we have. I would certainly like to have more copper than we have, but we'll be working on that. So I think if we have anything in our portfolio, it has to have scale. We need to be well positioned from any cost curve perspective. And what we have today are the commodities that we believe we can deliver that. At the end, it's about value creation. So we like what we have. As a company, we are always assessing alternatives and opportunities, but we are happy with the commodities we have. And it's a question of how we can continue to grow them.

    嘿,喬恩。古斯塔沃在這裡。看,我們對我們擁有的產品組合感到滿意。我當然希望擁有比我們更多的銅,但我們會為此努力。所以我認為,如果我們的投資組合中有任何東西,它就必須具有規模。從任何成本曲線的角度來看,我們都需要做好定位。我們今天擁有的是我們相信我們能夠實現這一目標的商品。最後,這是關於價值創造。所以我們喜歡我們所擁有的。作為一家公司,我們一直在評估替代方案和機會,但我們對我們擁有的商品感到滿意。這是我們如何繼續發展它們的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Vale's conference is now concluded. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.

    今天的問答環節到此結束。淡水河谷的會議現已結束。我們感謝您的參與並祝您有個愉快的一天。