淡水河谷 (VALE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

礦業公司淡水河谷報告了其戰略業務重點的強勁業績和進展。他們的 IRR 解決方案和能源過渡金屬部門取得了穩定的生產業績,推進了脫碳工作,並專注於安全。

他們批准了 20 億美元的股東薪酬並啟動了股票回購計畫。淡水河谷報告稱,由於鐵礦石和銅的實現價格上漲,第三季 EBITDA 上升。他們計劃實現年度成本節約,並有望達到年度指導目標。

淡水河谷產生自由現金流,並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還價值。該公司討論了他們對發展鋼鐵大型中心以及向不同地區供應煤球和高品級骨料的重點。他們對管理團隊和合作夥伴表示感謝,並強調了銅生產的進展。

淡水河谷的長期策略仍然專注於優質高品位礦石,他們正在調整供應鏈以提供較低的鋁溢價。他們正在調試鐵礦石壓球廠,預計到明年下半年將達到滿載生產。

淡水河谷對未來持樂觀態度,並相信可以從其資產中獲得更多價值。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vale's conference call to discuss the third quarter results of 2023. (Operator Instructions) This call is being translated simultaneously to Portuguese. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the recording will be available on the company's website at vale.com in the area for investors.

    早安,女士們,先生們。歡迎參加淡水河谷的電話會議,討論 2023 年第三季業績。(操作員說明)本次電話會議正在同步翻譯為葡萄牙語。 (操作員說明)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中,錄製內容將在該區域的公司網站 vale.com 上供投資者查閱。

  • The slide presentation that accompanies this call is being broadcast on the Internet and is also available in the investor's area of the company's website. There is a slight 2-second delay between the audio and slide changes compared to the audio transmitted via phone.

    這次電話會議附帶的幻燈片簡報正在網路上播放,也可以在公司網站的投資者專區中查看。與透過電話傳輸的音訊相比,音訊和幻燈片更改之間存在輕微的 2 秒延遲。

  • Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements may be provided in this presentation, including Vale's expectations about future events or results encompassing those matters listed in the respective presentation. We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. To obtain information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the report Vale filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, the Brazilian Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios CVM, and in particular, the factors discussed under forward-looking statements and Risk Factors in Vale's annual report on Form 20-F.

    在繼續之前,請允許我提一下,本簡報中可能會提供前瞻性陳述,包括淡水河谷對包含相應簡報中列出的事項的未來事件或結果的預期。我們提醒您,前瞻性陳述並不是對未來績效的保證,並且涉及風險和不確定性。要獲取可能導致結果與淡水河谷預測不同的因素的信息,請查閱淡水河谷向美國證券交易委員會、SEC、巴西 Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios CVM 提交的報告,特別是前瞻性章節中討論的因素-淡水河谷年度報告20-F 表格中的陳述和風險因素。

  • With us today are Mr. Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, Mr. Marcello Spinelli, Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions; Mrs. Deshnee Naidoo, CEO Vale Base Metals; Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations.

    今天與我們在一起的有執行長 Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo 先生;財務與投資者關係執行副總裁 Gustavo Pimenta 先生、Iron Ore Solutions 執行副總裁 Marcello Spinelli 先生;淡水河谷賤金屬執行長 Desshnee Naidoo 女士; Carlos Medeiros 先生,營運執行副總裁。

  • Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo will begin his presentation on Vale's third quarter performance and after that, he will be available for questions-and-answers. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo. Sir, you may now begin.

    Eduardo Bartolomeo 先生將開始介紹淡水河谷第三季的業績,之後他將接受問答。現在我很高興將電話轉給愛德華多·巴托洛梅奧先生。先生,您現在可以開始了。

  • Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

    Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I hope you are all doing well. We continue to make significant progress on our strategic business priorities. We delivered a solid production performance this quarter and throughout 2023.

    謝謝。大家,早安。我希望你們一切都好。我們持續在策略業務重點方面取得重大進展。我們在本季和 2023 年全年實現了穩健的生產業績。

  • In IRR Solutions, we delivered substantial output with increased average quality while also lowering our production to sales gap as expected.

    在 IRR Solutions 中,我們交付了大量產出,提高了平均質量,同時也按預期降低了產銷差距。

  • In Energy Transition Metals, Salobo III is successfully humping up contributing to our copper growth year-to-date with total production 10% higher in the quarter in supporting lower unit costs.

    在能源過渡金屬領域,Salobo III 成功為我們年初至今的銅成長做出了貢獻,本季總產量增加了 10%,支持了較低的單位成本。

  • In nickel, we remain on track to deliver our production guidance while reviewing our assets to unlock value potential. On our path to decarbonization, we are accelerating breakthrough iron ore solutions. We are commissioning our first briquetting plant in Tubarao and signed 2 strategic agreements to assess the development of Mega Hubs.

    在鎳方面,我們仍將繼續提供生產指導,同時審查我們的資產以釋放價值潛力。在脫碳之路上,我們正​​在加速突破性的鐵礦石解決方案。我們正在圖巴朗投產第一家壓塊廠,並簽署了兩項戰略協議來評估巨型樞紐的發展。

  • We are advancing in circular mining initiatives. We created a data to develop our sustainable sand operations, and we signed an agreement with BluestOne to foster waste-to-value transformation solutions in base metals.

    我們正在推進循環採礦計劃。我們創建了數據來發展我們的永續砂業務,並與 BluestOne 簽署了一項協議,以促進賤金屬廢物轉化為價值的解決方案。

  • On then safety, we continue to deliver on a new framework towards a safer value. We completed the decharacterization of our 13th upstream dam and reduced the emergency level of B3/B4 dam to the lowest.

    在安全方面,我們繼續建立一個新的框架,以實現更安全的價值。完成上游第13座大壩的去特徵化工作,將B3/B4大壩緊急等級降至最低。

  • On top of that, we remain with our disciplined capital allocation approach. We just approved a $2 billion shareholder remuneration payment for December. With that, total dividends and interest on capital distributed since 2021 represents a 29% yield for our shareholders.

    最重要的是,我們仍然堅持嚴格的資本配置方法。我們剛剛批准了 12 月 20 億美元的股東薪酬支付。這樣,自 2021 年以來分配的總股息和資本利息為我們的股東帶來了 29% 的收益率。

  • We also launched our fourth share buyback program. Since 2021, Vale has repurchased over 16% of its share base concentrating shareholders' future earnings by about 20%. As you can see, we are delivering on our commitments and reaping good results from our structural change. Let me go into more detail about our performance.

    我們也啟動了第四次股票回購計畫。自2021年以來,淡水河谷已回購了超過16%的股份,將股東的未來收益集中了約20%。正如你所看到的,我們正在兌現我們的承諾,並從結構性變革中收穫良好成果。讓我更詳細地介紹一下我們的表現。

  • Next slide, please. We had strong results this quarter, and we are starting Q4 at a robust pace, well positioned to deliver on our guidance.

    請下一張投影片。我們本季度取得了強勁的業績,並且我們正以強勁的步伐開始第四季度,完全有能力實現我們的指導。

  • In Iron Ore Solutions, we continue to operate S11D at a high rate while increasing pellet feed production from Brucutu, thanks to the Torto dam commissioning. We delivered 5 million tonnes above the 9 months output in 2022. We also improved our portfolio average quality and boosted pellet production by 11% this quarter. We faced one-off engineering issues at S11D and the effects of a power outage across Brazil. And despite those issues, we are on our way to deliver a solid Q4 output.

    在鐵礦石解決方案中,由於托爾託大壩的調試,我們繼續高速運作 S11D,同時增加了 Brucutu 的顆粒飼料產量。我們的產量比 2022 年 9 個月的產量高出 500 萬噸。我們還提高了產品組合的平均質量,並將本季度的顆粒產量提高了 11%。我們在 S11D 遇到了一次性工程問題以及巴西各地停電的影響。儘管有這些問題,我們仍在努力實現第四季的穩定產出。

  • Iron Ore finds and pellet sales increased by 6% this quarter, reducing our accumulated production to sales gap. Usually, in the third quarter, we had a high production to sales gap, but this quarter, we shortened that gap by around 50% compared to last year.

    本季鐵礦石發現量和球團銷量成長了 6%,減少了我們的累積產銷差距。通常,在第三季度,我們的產銷量差距很大,但本季度,我們將這一差距比去年縮小了 50% 左右。

  • In Q4, we expect to reduce this gap even further. In Energy Transition Metals, copper production grew 10% in the quarter and 22% on a 9-month basis as an increase of 41 kilotonnes compared to last year. Thanks to the successful ramp-up of Salobo III, which is now operating at 80% of its capacity.

    在第四季度,我們預計這一差距將進一步縮小。在能源過渡金屬領域,銅產量本季成長 10%,季增 22%,較去年增加 41 千噸。由於 Salobo III 的成功產能提升,該專案目前已達到 80% 的產能。

  • In September, the Salobo complex reached its highest monthly production levels since 2019. Copper sales were exceptional for the period growing about 5% quarter-on-quarter and 22% on a 9-month basis. Even though we have been delivering a substantial output, we have decided to lower our production guidance by around 15 kilotonnes given some change to the North Atlantic mining method and additional maintenance.

    9 月,薩洛博綜合體達到 2019 年以來的最高月度產量水準。在此期間,銅銷量異常強勁,環比增長約 5%,環比增長 22%。儘管我們一直在提供可觀的產量,但鑑於北大西洋採礦方法的一些變化和額外的維護,我們決定將產量指引降低約 15 千噸。

  • In nickel, we are performing as planned, which includes the continued transition of the Voisey's Bay mine to underground and the rebuild of the Onca Puma furnace #1 later this year. Our outlook for 2022 nickel production remains unchanged.

    在鎳方面,我們正在按計劃進行,其中包括繼續將 Voisey's Bay 礦井過渡到地下,以及今年稍後重建 Onca Puma 1 號熔爐。我們對 2022 年鎳產量的展望保持不變。

  • Next slide, please. We are accelerating breakthrough Iron Ore solutions to deliver the high-quality required by a decarbonizing world. The first brick cutting plant is under commissioning with the ramp-up expected by the end of this year.

    請下一張投影片。我們正在加速突破性的鐵礦石解決方案,以提供脫碳世界所需的高品質。第一個磚塊切割廠正在調試,預計今年底投產。

  • We expect to commission the second plant in early 2024 with the ramp-up at the beginning of the second quarter. The combined capacity will be 6 million tonnes per year. 2024 will be our first year with industrial level production and will be a near of operational fine-tuning for the long-term reliability.

    我們預計第二座工廠將於 2024 年初投產,並在第二季初投產。總產能將達到每年 600 萬噸。 2024 年將是我們實現工業級生產的第一年,並將為實現長期可靠性而進行營運微調。

  • On the Mega Hubs development front, we signed 2 strategic agreements to assess opportunities with Porto do Acu for a facility in Brazil for hot rigid iron production using our pellets and with H2 Green Steel for concentration units in Brazil and the United States, directed towards products for the low carbon steel value chain, including HPI using our briquettes.

    在巨型中心開發方面,我們簽署了兩項戰略協議,以評估與阿庫港(Porto do Acu) 在巴西建立使用我們的球團礦生產熱硬鐵工廠的機會,以及與H2 Green Steel 在巴西和美國建立濃縮裝置的機會,針對產品適用於低碳鋼價值鏈,包括使用我們的煤球的 HPI。

  • Concentration solutions are critical to our de-carbonization strategy, and we expect to build our first mega hub in 2024.

    集中解決方案對於我們的脫碳策略至關重要,我們預計將於 2024 年建成我們的第一個大型樞紐。

  • Next slide, please. Fostering circular mining, we launched at Agera, a company dedicated to developing our sustainable sand business. Agera trades and distribute sand extracting from the tailing dams of our iron ore operations. This type of operation allow us to reduce the use of dams and (inaudible) in our iron ore operation, and we hope to scale up this business.

    請下一張投影片。為了促進循環採礦,我們成立了 Agera,這是一家致力於發展永續砂業務的公司。 Agera 交易和分銷從我們的鐵礦石業務尾礦壩中提取的沙子。這種類型的運作使我們能夠減少鐵礦石運作中水壩和(聽不清楚)的使用,我們希望擴大這項業務。

  • In addition, value-based metals signed a long-term agreement with BluestOne to reuse tailings to produce fertilizers. Onca Puma Mine, we will supply BluestOne with slag for the next 10 years. This initiative expands circular mining within our Energy Transition Metals business.

    此外,價值金屬也與BluestOne簽署了長期協議,將尾礦再利用生產化肥。 Onca Puma 礦,我們將在未來 10 年向 BluestOne 提供礦渣。這項措施擴大了我們能源過渡金屬業務的循環採礦。

  • Furthermore, we signed 2 other strategic partnerships to assess decarbonization opportunities. With H2 Green Steel, Vale is taking its first step into the green hydrogen market. H2 Green Steel's expertise will be critical for developing green hydrogen in the Mega Hubs in Brazil and the United States.

    此外,我們也簽署了另外兩個策略夥伴關係來評估脫碳機會。淡水河谷憑藉 H2 Green Steel 邁出了進軍綠氫市場的第一步。 H2 Green Steel 的專業知識對於在巴西和美國的巨型中心開發綠氫至關重要。

  • With Petrobras, we will assess the acceleration of low-carbon solutions taking advantage of the joint technical expertise and synergies of our 2 companies. Vale plays a leading role in the decarbonization journey by leveraging relevant actions to enable the energy transition. These agreements fit perfectly into this context.

    我們將與巴西國家石油公司合作,利用兩家公司的聯合技術專長和綜效來評估低碳解決方案的加速發展。淡水河谷透過利用相關行動來實現能源轉型,在脫碳之旅中發揮主導作用。這些協議完全符合這一背景。

  • Next slide, please. Finally, we are building a safer Vale. We've completed the decharacterization of the 13th upstream dam. We are progressing on our upstream dam decharacterization program with the highest safe standards in place. In addition, after removing around 85% of tailings from B3/B4 dam, we reduced this emergence level to the lowest possible with decharacterization to be completed in 2025.

    請下一張投影片。最後,我們正在建造一個更安全的淡水河谷。我們已經完成了第 13 號上游大壩的去特徵化工作。我們正依照最高安全標準推進上游大壩特徵化計畫。此外,在清除 B3/B4 大壩約 85% 的尾礦後,我們將這種出現水平降至盡可能低的水平,並於 2025 年完成去特徵化工作。

  • Since 2020, we have implemented several safety measures upgrading over 40% of our structures at emergency levels to a safe status. We continue to systematically reduce the risk and to implement the best international practice in the management, while simultaneously developing solutions to minimize them usage.

    自2020年以來,我們實施了多項安全措施,將超過40%的處於緊急等級的建築物升級至安全狀態。我們繼續系統地降低風險並在管理中實施最佳的國際實踐,同時開發解決方案以最大限度地減少風險的使用。

  • Now for our financial results, I'll pass the floor to Gustavo. Thank you.

    現在,我將請古斯塔沃發言,討論我們的財務表現。謝謝。

  • Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

    Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

  • Thanks, Eduardo, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with our EBITDA performance for the quarter. As you can see, we delivered an EBITDA of $4.5 billion in Q3, almost $0.5 billion higher than the same period last year. The increase is explained by higher realized prices, which increased 13% year-on-year for iron ore and 16% for copper.

    謝謝,愛德華多,大家早安。讓我從本季的 EBITDA 表現開始。正如您所看到的,我們第三季的 EBITDA 為 45 億美元,比去年同期高出近 5 億美元。上漲的原因是實現價格上漲,鐵礦石較去年同期上漲 13%,銅較去年同期上漲 16%。

  • On volumes, iron ore findings and pellet sales increased 4.4 million tonnes year-on-year, taking advantage of favorable market conditions while reducing the usual production to sales gap in Q3. The impact of cost and expenses on EBITDA was $189 million year-on-year, partially explained by the $56 million effect from the consumption of iron ore inventories from the previous quarter at higher costs as well as higher maintenance carried out in our nickel businesses. I will go into more detail on costs later in my presentation.

    從銷售來看,鐵礦石發現量和球團銷量較去年同期增加 440 萬噸,利用有利的市場條件,同時縮小了第三季通常的產銷差距。成本和費用對 EBITDA 的影響為年比 1.89 億美元,部分原因是上一季鐵礦石庫存消耗成本增加以及鎳業務維護費用增加導致 5,600 萬美元的影響。我將在稍後的演講中詳細介紹成本。

  • Finally, the exchange rate had a negative impact of $124 million in our EBITDA, while by product revenues from our operations in Canada were $103 million lower. Iron ore C1 cash cost ex third-party purchases came down $1.6 per tonne quarter-on-quarter. This was driven by lower demurrage costs as well as higher fixed cost dilution with more production volumes, especially from the northern system, where production costs are lower.

    最後,匯率對我們的 EBITDA 產生了 1.24 億美元的負面影響,而我們加拿大業務的副產品收入減少了 1.03 億美元。鐵礦石 C1 除去第三方購買的現金成本較上季每噸下降 1.6 美元。這是由較低的滯期費以及較高的固定成本稀釋和產量增加所推動的,特別是來自生產成本較低的北部系統。

  • We also continue to benefit from our rollout of our efficiency program, bringing sustainable cost savings of $0.3 per tonne in the quarter. We are on track to deliver our annual guidance of $21.5 to $22.5 per tonne, considering an expected further decrease in C1 cash cost in Q4.

    我們也繼續受益於我們推出的效率計劃,本季可持續節省每噸 0.3 美元的成本。考慮到第四季度 C1 現金成本預計將進一步下降,我們預計將實現每噸 21.5 美元至 22.5 美元的年度指引。

  • With regards to all-in costs, our EBITDA breakeven is slightly increased to $55.7 per tonne in the quarter, driven essentially by external factors, which offset the solid C1 performance.

    就總成本而言,本季我們的 EBITDA 損益平衡點小幅增至每噸 55.7 美元,這主要是受到外部因素的推動,抵消了 C1 的穩健表現。

  • Freight costs went up from $17.6 per tonne to $18.9 per tonne, mainly reflecting the increase in bunker oil prices in Q3. For sensitivity purpose, a $10 per barrel increase in brent oil prices translates into a $0.9 per tonne increase in our freight costs.

    運費成本從每噸17.6美元上漲至每噸18.9美元,主要反映了第三季船用油價格的上漲。出於敏感性考慮,布蘭特原油價格每桶上漲 10 美元,我們的貨運成本將每噸增加 0.9 美元。

  • Additionally, despite the positive effect of lower time chartering rates, our exposure to the spot market treatment increased in Q3 due to our seasonally higher production and shipments in the second half of the year.

    此外,儘管較低的期租費率產生了正面影響,但由於下半年產量和出貨量季節性增加,我們在第三季接受現貨市場待遇的機會有所增加。

  • Finally, despite an improvement of 87 basis points in the average iron ore quality in the quarter, the lower weighted contribution of pallet businesses and the lower 65% FE market premiums negatively impacted our all-in costs. This is primarily driven by lower margins in the steel industry.

    最後,儘管本季鐵礦石平均品質提高了 87 個基點,但托盤業務的權重貢獻較低以及 65% 的鐵礦石​​市場溢價較低,對我們的總成本產生了負面影響。這主要是由於鋼鐵業利潤率較低所致。

  • We continue to believe in the strong fundamentals supporting demand of high-quality products, given secular trends such as the decarbonization of production processes, electrification of everything, the continuous urbanization of large emerging economies and the reshoring of supply chains. These are just a few of the examples that support our thesis and validate Vale's unique position in offering high-quality products across all of our portfolio.

    鑑於生產過程脫碳、一切電氣化、大型新興經濟體持續城市化以及供應鏈回流等長期趨勢,我們仍然相信支撐高品質產品需求的強勁基本面。這些只是支持我們論文並驗證淡水河谷在我們所有產品組合中提供高品質產品方面的獨特地位的幾個例子。

  • Now moving to our Energy Transition Metals business. In copper, we continue to see gains from higher production at both Salobo and Sossego, which support the reduction of unit COGS by diluting fixed costs. All-in costs, excluding the Huayou project were about $3,300 per tonne, a slight increase driven by lower byproduct revenues due to a decrease in gold prices.

    現在轉向我們的能源過渡金屬業務。在銅方面,我們繼續看到薩洛博和索塞戈產量增加帶來的收益,這透過稀釋固定成本來支持單位銷貨成本的降低。不包括華友項目的總成本約為每噸 3,300 美元,由於金價下跌導致副產品收入下降,導致總成本略有上升。

  • At our nickel operations, our COGS ex third-party feed increased to about $23,300 per tonne with higher maintenance cost in Sudbury. With the end of the maintenance period and increased production in our North Atlantic operations, we expect that unit COGS to materially reduce in Q4.

    在我們的鎳業務中,我們的 COGS 前第三方原料增加至每噸約 23,300 美元,薩德伯里的維護成本更高。隨著維護期的結束和我們北大西洋業務產量的增加,我們預計第四季度單位銷貨成本將大幅下降。

  • In addition, our all-in costs were impacted by lower byproduct credits, mainly due to maintenances at Sudbury and mining method changes requiring additional ground support at the Coleman mine.

    此外,我們的總成本也受到副產品信用額降低的影響,這主要是由於薩德伯里的維護以及科爾曼礦場需要額外地面支持的採礦方法的變化。

  • Now moving to cash generation. As you can see, Q3 free cash flow from operations was about $1.1 billion, roughly $350 million higher than Q2. We had an increase in working capital this quarter due to greater accounts receivable given higher iron ore sales and prices. Income taxes also increased as a result of better performance.

    現在轉向現金產生。正如您所看到的,第三季來自營運的自由現金流約為 11 億美元,比第二季高出約 3.5 億美元。由於鐵礦石銷售量和價格上漲,應收帳款增加,本季我們的營運資金增加。由於業績改善,所得稅也有所增加。

  • Free cash flow from operations was used to return value to our shareholders with the payment of $1.7 billion in dividends and $0.5 billion in share buybacks. This is part of our disciplined capital allocation strategy, which leads to my next slide.

    營運中的自由現金流用於向股東回報價值,支付了 17 億美元的股息和 5 億美元的股票回購。這是我們嚴格的資本配置策略的一部分,也是我下一張投影片的一部分。

  • Yesterday, our Board of Directors approved a distribution of $2 billion in dividends and interest on capital to be paid on December 1. This results from better cash flow generation to date and the expected inflow from the Base Metals partnership.

    昨天,我們的董事會批准了將於 12 月 1 日支付的 20 億美元股息和資本利息的分配。這是由於迄今為止更好的現金流生成以及基本金屬合作夥伴關係的預期流入。

  • Looking at our dividend distribution since 2021 and including this latest announcement, we have generated robust dividend yields to our shareholders. On top of our dividend commitment, we continue to see share buyback as one of the most accretive ways to create long-term value for our shareholders.

    縱觀 2021 年以來的股息分配,包括本次最新公告,我們為股東帶來了強勁的股息殖利率。除了股利承諾之外,我們仍然將股票回購視為為股東創造長期價值的最增值方式之一。

  • To that end, yesterday, our Board of Directors approved a new buyback program to repurchase up to 150 million shares in the next 18 months. Since we started our first program, we have repurchased a total of 830 million shares, representing 60% of our shares count.

    為此,昨天,我們的董事會批准了一項新的回購計劃,將在未來 18 個月內回購多達 1.5 億股股票。自啟動第一個計畫以來,我們已回購了總計 8.3 億股股票,占我們股票總數的 60%。

  • As a result, a shareholder who invested in Vale during this period has increased their participation of earnings per share by 19%. With that, I would like to now turn the call back to Eduardo for his closing remarks. Thank you.

    因此,在此期間投資淡水河谷的股東將其每股收益的參與度提高了19%。現在,我想將電話轉回給愛德華多,讓他發表結束語。謝謝。

  • Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

    Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Gustavo. So to summarize, here are the key messages from our presentation today. First, delivery on our commitment has led to a more robust operational performance across all businesses, and we have shown in the results.

    謝謝你,古斯塔沃。總而言之,以下是我們今天演講中的關鍵訊息。首先,兌現我們的承諾使所有業務的營運績效更加強勁,我們已經在結果中證明了這一點。

  • Implementing cost, the efficiency initiatives while growing production volumes have enabled a continued improvement in our unit costs. Third, the Energy Transition Metals asset review confirms the potential to unlock significant value. We designed a more fit-for-purpose organization, brought in top talent and entered a partnership with world-class strategic investors.

    在不斷提高產量的同時實施成本、效率舉措,使我們的單位成本持續改善。第三,能源過渡金屬資產審查證實了釋放巨大價值的潛力。我們設計了一個更適合目標的組織,引進了頂尖人才,並與世界一流的策略投資者建立了合作關係。

  • We have taken our assets to an optimal operating flow sheet for value creation. And finally, we remain a 100% committed to disciplined capital allocation. The distribution of an additional $2 billion in dividends and the launch of our fourth buyback program are evidence of that.

    我們已將資產納入最佳營運流程以創造價值。最後,我們仍然 100% 致力於嚴格的資本配置。額外分配 20 億美元股利和啟動第四次回購計畫就是證明。

  • We are at the forefront of global decarbonization, leveraging relevant actions for the energy transition while driving local and regional development. We have completed change how Vale manages its dams and risks. We are changing the company culture with a focus on safety, always listening to our stakeholders in an open and transparent dialogue.

    我們處於全球脫碳的前沿,利用能源轉型的相關行動,同時推動地方和區域發展。我們已經完成了淡水河谷管理水壩和風險的方式的改變。我們正在改變以安全為重點的公司文化,並始終以公開透明的對話方式傾聽利害關係人的意見。

  • We will continue to promote sustainable mining, foster low-carbon solutions and remain disciplined, making Vale a reference in creating and sharing value.

    我們將繼續促進永續採礦,培育低碳解決方案並保持紀律,使淡水河谷成為創造和分享價值的典範。

  • Finally, I would like to thank the management team, our employees and partners for contributing to this quarter's results. Thank you. And now let's start our Q&A session.

    最後,我要感謝管理團隊、員工和合作夥伴為本季業績做出的貢獻。謝謝。現在讓我們開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos De Alba。

  • Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

    Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

  • So my first question is on the nickel results. I think you're making progress quarter-on-quarter production increase clearly, you sold the stake in the company and set up an independent board and a strong management team. But the results continue to show increasing cost -- and so you are guiding -- you're keeping your all-in guidance flat for 2023 or unchanged better for 2023, which implies a very significant drop in the fourth quarter.

    所以我的第一個問題是關於鎳的結果。我認為你們在產量環比增長方面取得了明顯的進展,你們出售了公司股份並成立了獨立董事會和強大的管理團隊。但結果繼續顯示成本不斷增加——因此您正在指導——您將在 2023 年保持總體指導不變,或者在 2023 年保持不變,這意味著第四季度將出現非常顯著的下降。

  • So my questions are, is there a time where you think we could see a more sustainable, a better performance in terms of cost in that unit? And two, can you point us to a specific actions that will drive that significant decline in all-in cost in the fourth quarter?

    所以我的問題是,您是否認為我們可以在該單位的成本方面看到更永續、更好的績效?第二,您能否向我們指出將推動第四季總成本大幅下降的具體行動?

  • And then my second question has to do with -- clearly, you are generating strong cash flows, Iron Ore is contributing quite a lot, the company is making improvements in operations. And so you generate a lot of cash, pay this special dividend, how do you decide between the dividend and share buybacks? Because while we have a new share buyback program, really the incremental shares to be bought are only 10 million. So it's not that significant. But clearly, the $2 billion special dividend is significant. So what is the decision? Can you walk us through how you decide between dividends and share buybacks?

    然後我的第二個問題與 - 顯然,你正在產生強勁的現金流,鐵礦石貢獻很大,公司正在改善營運。所以你產生了大量現金,支付特別股息,你如何在股息和股票回購之間做出決定?因為雖然我們有新的股票回購計劃,但實際上要買的增量股票只有1000萬股。所以這並沒有那麼重要。但顯然,20 億美元的特別股利意義重大。那麼決定是什麼?您能否向我們介紹一下您如何在股利和股票回購之間做出決定?

  • Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

    Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Carlos, this is Eduardo. I'll give the questions to Deshnee and then afterwards to Pimenta. But just to make it clear, right, the structure that we are implementing is actually being implemented. It's been implementing. So we believe the results are going to be ripped above operational improvements. I think and Deshnee can even explore a little bit about that. But I'll pass the word for Deshnee to explain about the nickel results and the nickel expectations.

    謝謝,卡洛斯,這是愛德華多。我會將問題交給 Desshnee,然後再交給 Pimenta。但要明確的是,我們正在實施的結構實際上正在實施。已經在落實了。因此,我們相信結果將超越營運改善。我認為 Deshnee 甚至可以對此進行一些探索。但我會請 Desshne 解釋一下鎳的結果和鎳的預期。

  • Deshnee Naidoo - EVP of Base Metals

    Deshnee Naidoo - EVP of Base Metals

  • Thank you, Eduardo. And thank you, Carlos, for the question. So if I just look at the quarter specifically, we produced 42,000 tonnes of nickel, but only sold 39,000 tonnes and as Pimenta guided as well, we did sell less byproducts in the quarter.

    謝謝你,愛德華多。謝謝你,卡洛斯,提出這個問題。因此,如果我具體看一下本季度,我們生產了 42,000 噸鎳,但只銷售了 39,000 噸,而且正如 Pimenta 所指導的那樣,我們在本季度銷售的副產品確實較少。

  • So that largely contributed to the overall higher unit cost in the quarter. In terms of performance when it comes to production numbers, I mean, year-on-year, some of the markers that I use in terms of how the actions are translating into the right results. We have year-on-year increased our overall development in North Atlantic by over 20%.

    因此,這在很大程度上導致了本季整體單位成本的上升。就產量而言,我的意思是,與去年同期相比,我使用的一些標記是關於如何將行動轉化為正確的結果。我們在北大西洋的整體發展年增了 20% 以上。

  • And that's why you would see the mining production has actually increased year-on-year by over 16%. So that's an excellent way to say that the actions are resulting in the right numbers. If you ask them what are we doing to structurally change the business to get to those lower cost numbers?

    這就是為什麼你會看到採礦產量實際上比去年同期增長了 16% 以上。所以這是一個很好的方式來說明這些行動產生了正確的數字。如果你問他們我們正在做什麼來從結構上改變業務以實現更低的成本數字?

  • So firstly, in quarter 4, we will sell some of the difference of what we didn't sell in quarter 3, and we mainly hold that back in terms of inventories for maintenance, et cetera. So that together with a higher production number will result in a much higher production as well as sales, which is exactly what happened last year this time, where we sold close to last year, about 50,000 tonnes. This year, we probably close to 47,000, 48,000 tonnes of nickel sales in quarter 4.

    因此,首先,在第四季度,我們將出售一些第三季未出售的產品的差額,我們主要在維護庫存等方面保留這些差額。因此,加上更高的產量,將導致更高的產量和銷量,這正是去年這次發生的情況,我們的銷量接近去年,約 5 萬噸。今年,我們第四季的鎳銷量可能接近 47,000、48,000 噸。

  • So that, together with some of the copper that we know will now come back into the system because we are sitting with inventories ahead of the plant, will result in much higher copper byproducts as well, which will then give us the lower unit cost in quarter 4 that will dilute the overall year-to-date results and that is why we are still holding on to the nickel cost guidance.

    因此,加上我們知道現在將返回系統的一些銅,因為我們在工廠之前有庫存,也將導致更高的銅副產品,這將使我們的單位成本更低第四季度這將稀釋今年迄今為止的整體業績,這就是我們仍然堅持鎳成本指引的原因。

  • In terms of just the overall structural changes, VBME continues to ramp up. And that -- those ramp-up tonnes will come at a more efficient rate, and that will result in the overall unit cost improvement that we will see from the third quarter of next year onwards. And then some of the other initiatives on productivity, et cetera, in Sudbury would drive this forward.

    僅從整體結構變化來看,VBME持續加速。而且,這些產量的增加將以更有效率的速度進行,這將導致整體單位成本的改善,我們將從明年第三季開始看到這一點。然後薩德伯里的一些其他有關生產力的舉措等將推動這一進程。

  • But as Eduardo mentioned in his opening comments on the asset reviews, in fact, Tony and the team are currently in Sudbury, a lot of the work there is whether we can reduce some of the cut-off grades and what the team is initially coming up with is huge opportunities of possibility relooking at this kind of grade that will result in far higher tonnes that together with some of the technology initiatives that Tony wants to put on the table is telling us there's a lot more value potential unlock within the asset base. I'll leave it there and hand over to Pimenta.

    但正如愛德華多在資產審查的開場評論中提到的,事實上,托尼和團隊目前在薩德伯里,那裡的許多工作是我們是否可以降低一些截止等級以及團隊最初的目標重新審視這種品味將帶來巨大的可能性,這將導致產量大幅增加,再加上托尼希望提出的一些技術舉措,這些都告訴我們資產基礎中還有更多的潛在價值。我會把它留在那裡並交給 Pimenta。

  • Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

    Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

  • Thanks, Deshnee, and thanks, Carlos, for your question. Look, we've been favoring both over the last couple of years, right, both dividend and share buyback. And we like both. I think both have a role to play in our capital allocation, especially given where stock prices are today.

    謝謝德什尼,也謝謝卡洛斯提出的問題。看,過去幾年我們一直青睞股利和股票回購,對吧。我們都喜歡。我認為兩者在我們的資本配置中都可以發揮作用,特別是考慮到目前的股價。

  • This one, it's a combination of things. I think, one, as you said, we continue to generate strong cash flow. I mean prices remain constructive, and therefore, cash flow remains strong. But there is also an element of the VBM partnership here, which has more one-off nature.

    這一個,是多種事物的結合。我認為,第一,正如您所說,我們繼續產生強勁的現金流。我的意思是價格仍然具有建設性,因此現金流仍然強勁。但這裡還有一個 VBM 合作夥伴關係的要素,它具有更多的一次性性質。

  • So that is what led us to favor is the cash -- the dividend payment of $2 billion. But again, we continue to believe share buyback is a great capital allocation too for us, and that's the reason why we decided to extend the program for another 150 million shares.

    因此,這就是導致我們青睞現金的原因——20 億美元的股息支付。但我們仍然相信,股票回購對我們來說也是一個很好的資本配置,這就是我們決定將該計畫再延長 1.5 億股的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Caio Ribeiro。

  • Caio Burger Ribeiro - Director in Equity Research and Head of the LatAm Metals and Mining and Pulp and Paper

    Caio Burger Ribeiro - Director in Equity Research and Head of the LatAm Metals and Mining and Pulp and Paper

  • Yes. So firstly, I just wanted to explore a bit how you see the company's breakeven EBITDA for iron ore evolving with some of the changes, right, that you're working at in the company, and also due to some changing industry dynamics ahead as well, right? So with this focus on developing steel mega hubs together with steelmakers, right? And given that under this structure, you will be supplying briquettes and other high-grade agglomerates to certain regions in the world and including the Middle East, possibly in the U.S. as well.

    是的。首先,我只是想探討一下您如何看待公司鐵礦石盈虧平衡 EBITDA 隨著您在公司工作的一些變化而變化,以及未來一些不斷變化的行業動態, 正確的?因此,重點是與鋼鐵製造商一起開發大型鋼鐵中心,對吧?考慮到在這種結構下,您將向世界某些地區(包括中東,也可能是美國)供應煤球和其他高級團塊。

  • Presumably, there will be some shift, right, in your geographical breakdown of shipments, right? Today, it's largely directed towards China, right? But with this focus on energy transition (inaudible) and your strong positioning in delivering higher grade ore, I imagine your regional shipment destination could change, right? And that could perhaps alter your average maritime freight.

    想必,你們的出貨地理分佈將會發生一些變化,對嗎?今天,它主要針對中國,對吧?但隨著對能源轉型(聽不清楚)的關注以及您在提供更高品位礦石方面的強大定位,我想您的區域運輸目的地可能會發生變化,對嗎?這可能會改變您的平均海運運費。

  • And a higher maritime freight from Brazil to China has always been a disadvantage versus Australian peers. But with this potential change in the regional shipment destinations, do you see that potentially helping you gain an edge versus other peers, I don't know a breakeven EBITDA perspective?

    與澳洲同行相比,從巴西到中國的海運運費較高一直處於劣勢。但是,隨著區域運輸目的地的潛在變化,您是否認為這可能有助於您相對於其他同行獲得優勢,我不知道盈虧平衡的 EBITDA 前景如何?

  • And then secondly, on the Base Metals division, right, it's clear that there's a lot going on there with the 13% stake stay underway, you brought some high-profile names to the Board and manager of the company. You're carrying an asset review.

    其次,在基本金屬部門,對吧,很明顯,隨著 13% 股份的保留,那裡發生了很多事情,你為公司董事會和經理帶來了一些知名人士。您正在進行資產審查。

  • Yet the short-term results, they show the challenges still exist with maintenance at some assets, the transition to underground operational at Voisey's Bay. I just wanted to see if you could give us an indication as to what milestones you're looking to achieve here over the next 2 years, right? And what signs do you think we should be looking for as clear signals that this turnaround of the asset is being successful?

    然而,短期結果表明,某些資產的維護以及沃伊西灣向地下運營的過渡仍然存在挑戰。我只是想看看您能否告訴我們您希望在未來兩年內實現哪些里程碑,對吧?您認為我們應該尋找哪些跡像作為資產轉型正在成功的明確訊號?

  • Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

    Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

  • Caio, Gustavo here. So I'll get started with the all-in question for iron ore and maybe Deshnee can help us out with the base metals here. So in iron ore, there are a couple of things which will benefit our breakeven over the next couple of years, right? One is the simple fact that we should be resuming capacity, right? So there is a plan as we laid out in Vale Day and we'll provide more color now in December in terms of ramping up capacity, but also ramping up capacity of higher-quality products, which will help on the premiums and therefore the all-in.

    凱奧,古斯塔沃在這裡。因此,我將從鐵礦石的所有問題開始,也許 Deshnee 可以幫助我們解決這裡的賤金屬問題。因此,在鐵礦石方面,有幾件事將有利於我們未來幾年的損益平衡,對嗎?一是我們應該恢復產能的簡單事實,對嗎?因此,我們在淡水河谷日制定了一項計劃,我們將在12 月提供更多顏色,以提高產能,同時提高更高品質產品的產能,這將有助於提高溢價,從而提高所有產品的產量。 -在。

  • Certainly, the ability for us to sell to markets that are closer to our operations helps additionally to that case. So overall, I think we are moving in that direction of being, over time, even more competitive from an all-in standpoint. So you're right on your assessment, and that's the way we also see. So I'll just hand it back to Deshnee, if you can talk a word about base metals. But before that, maybe Spinelli can complement on the iron ore, if there is anything else you want to add to the all-ins?

    當然,我們向更接近我們業務的市場銷售的能力也有助於這種情況。總的來說,我認為我們正在朝著這樣的方向發展:隨著時間的推移,從整體的角度來看,我們將變得更具競爭力。所以你的評估是正確的,我們也這麼認為。如果你能談談賤金屬的話,我會把它交還給德希尼。但在此之前,也許斯皮內利可以補充鐵礦石,如果還有什麼想補充的嗎?

  • Marcello Magistrini Spinelli - EVP of Iron Ore

    Marcello Magistrini Spinelli - EVP of Iron Ore

  • Thank you, Caio. That's exactly the strategy that we have, right? So it's based on decarb, segmentation and as we need to decarb, we have the direct reduction route and we go after competitive energy. So Middle East is a target. U.S. is a target and also Brazil. So exactly the consequence of that is reduce our exposure to China.

    謝謝你,凱奧。這正是我們的策略,對吧?因此,它基於脫碳、細分,當我們需要脫碳時,我們有直接的減少路線,我們追求有競爭力的能源。所以中東是一個目標。美國是目標,巴西也是。因此,其後果就是減少我們對中國的投資。

  • And we -- that's a way to go back in a much better shape to Atlantic, as you mentioned. And we're going to have the benefit as Pimenta said, of the premiums and the breakeven of EBITDA and also the freight and keep our competitiveness with big vessels, we have capacity to discharge in Oman, the Valemaxes.

    正如您所提到的,這是一種以更好的狀態返回大西洋的方式。正如 Pimenta 所說,我們將受益於保費和 EBITDA 的盈虧平衡以及貨運,並保持我們與大型船舶的競爭力,我們有能力在阿曼卸貨,Valemaxes。

  • We also have capacity to discharge in Europe and Holter dam show you're going to keep the all the advantage that we've been developing in China in a closer and stable territory. Now I hand over to Deshnee.

    我們在歐洲也有排放能力,霍爾特大壩表明您將在更緊密、更穩定的領域中保持我們在中國開發的所有優勢。現在我把任務交給德什尼。

  • Deshnee Naidoo - EVP of Base Metals

    Deshnee Naidoo - EVP of Base Metals

  • Thank you, Caio. Thank you, Gustavo. So Caio, thank you for the question. I'm just going to call out some of the progress that we've already seen. We've had 3 progressive quarters this year for copper as Eduardo said, quarter 3 versus quarter 1 is already a 22% increase.

    謝謝你,凱奧。謝謝你,古斯塔沃。 Caio,謝謝你的提問。我只想指出我們已經看到的一些進展。正如 Eduardo 所說,今年銅價已經連續三個季度成長,第三季與第一季相比已經成長了 22%。

  • But turning to South Atlantic. South Atlantic has had a 47% increase in copper production during the first 3 quarters of this year. And September month, and I'm seeing the same trend in October month, we are at the highest levels of copper production across South Atlantic since 2019.

    但轉向南大西洋。今年前三個季度,南大西洋銅產量增加了 47%。 9 月,我在 10 月看到了同樣的趨勢,南大西洋銅產量處於 2019 年以來的最高水準。

  • And then when I turn to Ontario mines, although we've had the issues which are very explainable in Coleman mine, 4 out of the 5 mines in Ontario are above 96% of the budget target. So I think we can say that the improvement and the ramp-up are being delivered, but perhaps not at the pace that we needed to be.

    然後當我轉向安大略省的礦山時,儘管我們在科爾曼礦山遇到了可以解釋的問題,但安大略省的 5 個礦山中有 4 個都超過了預算目標的 96%。因此,我認為我們可以說改進和提升正在實現,但可能沒有達到我們需要的速度。

  • So one of the first milestones that we are -- that we've delivered is the fact that Salobo III, I think, is absolutely a benchmark delivery on ramp-up. Eduardo said, we're closer to 80% of the throughput, which is around 10 million tonnes per annum run rate already and to deliver that within 9 months where we've had some delays in the second line start-up is very impressive.

    因此,我們所實現的第一個里程碑之一是,我認為 Salobo III 絕對是加速交付的基準。 Eduardo 表示,我們已接近吞吐量的80%,即每年的運行速度約為1000 萬噸,在第二條生產線啟動出現一些延誤的情況下,能在9 個月內實現這一目標是非常令人印象深刻的。

  • On Salobo I and II, we've previously mentioned on Vale Day, that we're in the process of doing a recovery program. And that recovery plan was really targeted as catching up on some of the backlog maintenance. Very happy to say that, that work, the majority of it has been completed and the improvements that we're seeing, Caio, now is that the plant availability, plant 1 and 2, is up to 90%, which is actually up more than 5% increase year-on-year.

    關於薩洛博一號和二號,我們之前在淡水河谷日提到過,我們正在實施恢復計畫。這個恢復計畫的真正目標是趕上一些積壓的維護工作。很高興地說,這項工作大部分已經完成,Caio,我們看到的改進是,工廠 1 號和 2 號工廠的可用性達到了 90%,實際上提高了更多同比增幅超過5%。

  • And at Coleman, as we mentioned, we're not able to go after some of those more riskier so pillars that we have in the mine. But what I can tell you is that because of the ground support initiatives that we had and the milestone achieved we are set up to have a better quarter 4. So when I look at maintenance, what we've said up until the end of last year on backlog, the majority of that we are beyond. What we are now looking at, which is very seasonal, and I think and this is something we must understand on the nickel business, we will take our smelters down in the middle of the year for a month to 2 months.

    在科爾曼,正如我們所提到的,我們無法追求礦井中一些風險較高的支柱。但我可以告訴你的是,由於我們採取的地面支持舉措和所實現的里程碑,我們將在第四季度取得更好的成績。因此,當我考慮維護時,我們截至去年年底所說的內容就積壓而言,我們已經超越了其中的大部分。我們現在所關注的是非常季節性的,我認為這是我們必須了解的鎳業務,我們將在年中關閉我們的冶煉廠一個月到兩個月。

  • There are assets that will go through 2 months of maintenance, as I'm seeing on the surface plants for next year. So we need to perhaps guide better in terms of what to expect because nickel by design will be a little patchy per quarter over the year. Now with the asset reviews, what we are seeing, as I mentioned, is things like cut-off grades, optimization. I think in terms of milestones to look for, Mark and I are working on a roadmap for the asset reviews that demonstrates how the value can be unlocked.

    正如我在明年的地面電站上看到的那樣,有些資產將進行兩個月的維護。因此,我們或許需要更好地指導預期,因為鎳的設計在一年中每季都會有點不穩定。現在,透過資產審查,正如我所提到的,我們看到的是諸如截止等級、優化之類的東西。我認為就要尋找的里程碑而言,馬克和我正在製定資產審查路線圖,以展示如何釋放價值。

  • And as Mark has already mentioned, in fact, Caio, the discussion with you and Liam a couple of months ago that this will take a while to put in place and that from his experience, these kinds of deep transformation programs will take almost 2 to 3 years to deliver.

    事實上,正如馬克已經提到的那樣,Caio,幾個月前與你和利亞姆的討論表明,這需要一段時間才能落實到位,根據他的經驗,此類深度轉型計劃將需要近 2 到3年交付。

  • So we will come back to you at Vale Day and explain how the roadmap will come together. But I want everyone on the call to be very clear that the initiatives that we set out to do in terms of catching up on backlog maintenance is there, and that is translating into improved progressive production increases quarter-on-quarter.

    因此,我們將在淡水河谷日再次與您聯繫,並解釋路線圖將如何制定。但我希望參加電話會議的每個人都非常清楚,我們在趕上積壓維護方面所採取的舉措已經存在,並且正在轉化為逐季度改善的漸進產量增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Daniel Sasson, Itaú BBA.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Itañ BBA Daniel Sasson。

  • Daniel Sasson - Research Analyst

    Daniel Sasson - Research Analyst

  • My first question is related to cost because you did have an improvement in your C1 and yet you are delivered in China breakeven increased versus the second quarter, and part of that can be explained by higher expenses and royalties, at least as per what we can see from the table that you published. Was there -- just curious if there was any sort of one-off items on that line or extraordinary items that could revert ahead? Or if you could give us more color on your expectations for these -- the remaining part in addition to the C1 that composes your breakeven delivered in China. I think that would help us to forecast that going ahead?

    我的第一個問題與成本有關,因為你們的C1 確實有所改善,但你們在中國交付的盈虧平衡點與第二季度相比有所增加,部分原因可以透過更高的費用和特許權使用費來解釋,至少根據我們的了解從您發布的表格中可以看出。有沒有-只是好奇這條線上是否有某種一次性物品或可以提前恢復的特殊物品?或者,您是否可以向我們提供更多關於您對這些產品的期望——除了 C1 之外的剩餘部分,這些部分構成了您在中國交付的盈虧平衡點。我認為這將有助於我們預測未來的情況?

  • And my second question is more on the -- if you could share with us an overall view on the premiums for higher quality products in China. We saw in recent months, the Chinese steelmakers margins not being that great so they favor to some extent the lower quality products, which hurt premiums for better quality products, right? So if you could walk us through your thoughts on how this could evolve going forward, that would be great?

    我的第二個問題更多的是——您是否可以與我們分享對中國優質產品溢價的整體看法。近幾個月我們看到,中國鋼鐵製造商的利潤率並不那麼高,因此他們在某種程度上偏愛較低品質的產品,這損害了優質產品的溢價,對嗎?因此,如果您能向我們介紹一下您對未來如何發展的想法,那就太好了?

  • Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

    Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

  • Thanks, Daniel. This is Gustavo. So I'll do the first one, and then I'll ask Spinelli to talk about the second one. So yes, C1 performance came better. I think we were expecting the performance to improve since Q1, and we've said that. So it's good to see C1 coming down, especially versus Q2.

    謝謝,丹尼爾。這是古斯塔沃。所以我會先講第一個,然後我會請 Spinelli 談第二個。所以是的,C1 的性能變得更好了。我認為自第一季以來我們就預計性能會有所改善,我們已經說過了。因此,很高興看到 C1 下降,尤其是相對於 Q2 而言。

  • And we should continue to see that performance improving in Q4. On the all-in, it's mostly driven by external factors, frankly, because what you're referring to in terms of royalties, it was up actually more a one-off in Q2 than Q3. So there is no impact in Q3 associated with any potential one-off on royalties.

    我們應該會繼續看到第四季的業績改善。坦白說,總而言之,這主要是由外部因素驅動的,因為你所指的特許權使用費實際上在第二季度比第三季度更多地是一次性的。因此,任何潛在的一次性特許權使用費不會對第三季度產生影響。

  • In fact, what we had, if you look at big picture here, it's more the external factors, which have impacted us in the quarter, especially bunker, which is almost $8 per tonne increase versus what we had in Q2 and also premiums, especially market premiums, which came down in the quarter, which is about $0.7 per tonne. So that is primarily what has driven the all-in to come up. But again, we should continue to see improvements as we continue to bring volumes plus our efficiency initiatives continue to deliver. So with that, I'll ask Spinelli to talk about premiums in China.

    事實上,如果你從大局來看,我們所擁有的更多的是外部因素,這些因素在本季度影響了我們,特別是燃油,與第二季度相比每噸增加了近8 美元,還有溢價,尤其是燃油價格。市場溢價在本季有所下降,約為每噸 0.7 美元。所以這就是推動全押出現的主要原因。但同樣,隨著我們繼續帶來銷售和我們的效率舉措的繼續實施,我們應該會繼續看到改進。那麼接下來,我將請 Spinelli 談談中國的保費問題。

  • Marcello Magistrini Spinelli - EVP of Iron Ore

    Marcello Magistrini Spinelli - EVP of Iron Ore

  • Thank you, Daniel, for the questions. So firstly, just to reinforce, our long-term view remains intact about premium. So I think the capitalization is a trend Energy efficiency is a necessity. We need high-grade ores to decrease the impact of CO2 in blast furnaces and we need high-grade ores in a glomerated form to support direct reduction route.

    謝謝丹尼爾提出的問題。首先,為了強調,我們對溢價的長期看法保持不變。所以我認為資本化是一個趨勢 能源效率是一個必然。我們需要高品位礦石來減少高爐中二氧化碳的影響,我們需要團聚形式的高品位礦石來支持直接還原路線。

  • So this is our main strategy, long-term strategy, and we strongly believe on that. In short term, let's split this in 3. So the fourth point, pellets doing really well. So we have high premiums for pellets and this is related to this blooming of direct reduction that is already going on in the Middle East and the U.S.

    所以這是我們主要的策略、長期策略,我們對此堅信不疑。短期而言,我們將其分為三個部分。第四點,顆粒做得非常好。因此,我們對顆粒的溢價很高,這與中東和美國已經發生的直接減少的蓬勃發展有關。

  • The second one is related to low alumina. So that's another trend. Our competitors are increasing the alumina, and we are taking advantage of how our low alumina products. And regarding the Carajas, the high-grade ores, we always say that we have premiums when we need to save energy. So the cost of energy side, that's not the case today, coke is in a low level.

    第二個與低氧化鋁有關。這是另一個趨勢。我們的競爭對手正在增加氧化鋁,而我們正在利用我們的低氧化鋁產品。至於卡拉哈斯(Carajas)這種高品位礦石,我們總是說,當我們需要節省能源時,我們有溢價。所以能源方面的成本,今天的情況並非如此,焦炭處於較低水準。

  • Or if you need more efficiency to increase the production, increase the volumes to support the market. So that's the main point here today in China. We have a strong market in a transition mode. So minimizing cost is the sense today. So we are also taking advantage of that. So we are selling -- as we have a flexible supply chain, we are selling some high silicas with a lower discount today.

    或者,如果您需要更高的效率來增加產量,請增加產量來支持市場。這就是今天中國的要點。我們在轉型模式中擁有強大的市場。因此,最大限度地降低成本是當今的意義。所以我們也在利用這一點。因此,我們正在銷售 - 由於我們擁有靈活的供應鏈,我們今天以較低的折扣出售一些高二氧化矽。

  • And we are adjusting our supply chain to blend and have the low aluminum premium. But what we see is that transition moment that's the longest period of low margins in China, only comparable to 2015. After -- in that moment in 2015, we had the supply side reform. We don't expect this in China today, but what we believe that we have a strong support from the Chinese government to keep their goals in GDP and GDP per capital and that's an important message that came this week when we had the announcement of the $1 trillion to support the infrastructure stimulus.

    我們正在調整我們的供應鏈,以實現低鋁溢價。但我們看到的是這個轉型時刻,這是中國持續時間最長的低利潤時期,只能與2015年相媲美。在2015年的那個時刻之後,我們進行了供給面改革。我們預計今天的中國不會出現這種情況,但我們相信,我們得到了中國政府的大力支持,以實現 GDP 和人均 GDP 的目標,這是本週我們宣布1萬億美元用於支持基礎設施刺激計劃。

  • So that will support that transition, and we believe that, that will be better pricing to that supports better margin, that supports a better premium for our high grade ore that Carajas. So that's the figure we have short term, focus on minimizing costs but a transition for next year to rebalance the market in terms of price of steel in China.

    因此,這將支持這種轉變,我們相信,這將是更好的定價,從而支持更好的利潤,並支持我們的高品位礦石比卡拉加斯更好的溢價。這就是我們的短期數據,重點是最大限度地降低成本,但明年將進行過渡,以重新平衡中國鋼鐵價格的市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Rafael Barcellos, Santander.

    我們的下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的 Rafael Barcellos。

  • Rafael Barcellos - Sector Head for Metals, Mining, Pulp & Paper

    Rafael Barcellos - Sector Head for Metals, Mining, Pulp & Paper

  • My first question is about briquettes. So Vale has already started the commissioning task of the first 2 iron ore briquette plants in Tubarão right? So I just would like to understand how these operations are evolving? And when do you expect to reach the combined run rate production of 6 million tonnes?

    我的第一個問題是關於煤球的。那麼淡水河谷已經開始了圖巴里奧前兩座鐵礦石壓球廠的調試任務,對嗎?所以我只是想了解這些操作是如何演變的?您預計什麼時候能夠達到 600 萬噸的綜合運作率?

  • And the second question is about the Brucutu complex. I mean after the return of the Torto dam, how operations are evolving in terms of mix of products and volumes? And also, could you confirm when you'll be able to capture the full benefit of Torto dam? If it will be in the 4Q or more to early next year?

    第二個問題是關於布魯庫圖情結的。我的意思是,托爾託大壩回歸後,業務在產品組合和產量上有何變化?另外,您能否確認何時能夠充分利用托爾託大壩的優勢?是否會在第四季或更長時間到明年初?

  • Carlos Henrique Senna Medeiros - EVP of Operations

    Carlos Henrique Senna Medeiros - EVP of Operations

  • Rafael, this is Carlos Medeiros. Thank you for questions. Regarding the briquettes, we are now -- as we commented during the presentation, commissioning the first line and addressing the technical problems. And so far, we have not found anything unexpected. Everything is coming according to plan. So we our expectation is to move into more a start-up in the beginning of November. And then -- and from that point start, we will start ramping up this line.

    拉斐爾,我是卡洛斯‧梅代羅斯。謝謝您的提問。關於煤球,正如我們在演示期間評論的那樣,我們現在正在調試第一條生產線並解決技術問題。而且到目前為止,我們還沒有發現任何意外的情況。一切都在按計劃進行。因此,我們的期望是在 11 月初進入更多的新創公司。然後——從那時起,我們將開始加強這條生產線。

  • Regarding the second line, as also mentioned during the presentation, we will start commissioning it during Q2 next year and after that ramping up. So we should be in a position to have the full capacity in place sometime in the second half of next year approximately.

    關於第二條生產線,正如在演示中提到的那樣,我們將在明年第二季開始調試,並在此之後加速。因此,我們應該能夠在大約明年下半年的某個時候將全部產能到位。

  • Regarding the Brucutu line is we have 3 lines in our processing plants up and running after the Torto dam. And we should continue until we have licenses for our waste piles to be implemented and then we'll be in a position to move to -- away from 3 lines up to 5 lines. So that's the outlook. And this won't happen before 2026.

    關於 Brucutu 生產線,我們的加工廠有 3 條生產線,在 Torto 大壩之後啟動並運作。我們應該繼續下去,直到我們獲得了實施垃圾堆的許可證,然後我們就可以從 3 條線轉向 5 條線。這就是前景。而這在 2026 年之前不會發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Myles Allsop, UBS London.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀倫敦的邁爾斯·奧爾索普。

  • Myles Allsop - Executive Director,Co-Head of EMEA Mining Equity Research & Equity Analyst, European Mining Research

    Myles Allsop - Executive Director,Co-Head of EMEA Mining Equity Research & Equity Analyst, European Mining Research

  • Great. So 2 questions. First of all, on CapEx. Could you give us obviously a bit more sense around how CapEx is going to trend this year and over the next few years. Obviously, this year, you're tracking well below the $6 billion. As we look forward, with all kind of Mega Hubs and the investments in Indonesia, how should we think about CapEx moving forward? Or having how capital intensive from a Vale perspective will these Mega Hubs be and when will we start seeing spend on those?

    偉大的。所以有2個問題。首先,在資本支出上。您能否讓我們對今年和未來幾年的資本支出趨勢有更多了解?顯然,今年的支出遠低於 60 億美元。展望未來,隨著各種大型樞紐和在印尼的投資,我們應該如何考慮未來的資本支出?或者從淡水河谷的角度來看,這些大型樞紐的資本密集程度如何?我們什麼時候會開始看到這些方面的支出?

  • And then the second question is just around Samarco. Could you just give us a quick update? Obviously, there's the headlines earlier in the week. Could you give us a sense how negotiations are progressing or not and what we should be thinking about in terms of liabilities?

    第二個問題是關於薩馬科的。能為我們快速介紹一下最新情況嗎?顯然,本週早些時候就有了頭條新聞。您能否讓我們了解一下談判進度以及我們在責任方面應該考慮哪些問題?

  • Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

    Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

  • Myles, Gustavo Pimenta here. So maybe starting with the second question. So look, we continue to work on trying to find a resolution that works for everybody, right? So that's, I think, our belief that this is the ideal outcome here. So we continue to be hopeful that, if not this year, in the first half of next year, we'll be able to find a resolution.

    邁爾斯,古斯塔沃皮門塔在這裡。那也許從第二個問題開始。所以看,我們繼續努力尋找適合每個人的解決方案,對嗎?所以,我認為,我們相信這是理想的結果。因此,我們仍然希望,即使不是今年,明年上半年,我們也能找到解決方案。

  • And that should resolve some of the open disputes that we continue to see coming through, right? That is, from our perspective, the best outcome for Samarco and we'll continue to look and work very hard for that. Regardless, we continue to perform super well on the obligations that we have under the (inaudible).

    這應該可以解決我們繼續看到的一些公開爭議,對吧?從我們的角度來看,這對 Samarco 來說是最好的結果,我們將繼續為此尋找並努力工作。無論如何,我們繼續出色地履行(聽不清楚)規定的義務。

  • So with 80% of the housing solutions have been resolved. We have indemnified more than 430,000 people, spent to date BRL 33 billion. So things are moving, and we'll continue to do so. On CapEx, yes, we are tracking well around the $6 billion. We'll provide more color in Vale Day in terms of what is our long-term expectation there, but you shouldn't expect us to deviate much from it because especially you've mentioned the Mega Hubs, some of that investment will be done in partnership with our clients.

    這樣80%的住房問題就已經解決了。我們已為超過 43 萬人提供了賠償,迄今已花費了 330 億雷亞爾。所以事情正在發生變化,我們將繼續這樣做。是的,在資本支出方面,我們的追蹤數據約為 60 億美元。我們將在淡水河谷日提供更多關於我們在那裡的長期期望的信息,但你不應該指望我們會偏離它太多,因為特別是你提到了巨型樞紐,其中一些投資將完成與我們的客戶合作。

  • So we will do part of it, our clients will do part of it. So we should be able to accommodate this substantially within the existing figures that we've been working on. So we'll provide that more color in Vale Day, but that's the direction you should expect from us.

    所以我們會做一部分,我們的客戶也會做一部分。因此,我們應該能夠在我們一直在研究的現有數據中充分考慮這一點。因此,我們將在 Vale Day 中提供更多的色彩,但這就是您應該期待我們的方向。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from Tyler Broda, RBC.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的泰勒布羅達 (Tyler Broda)。

  • Tyler Anson Broda - Director, Global Mining Research

    Tyler Anson Broda - Director, Global Mining Research

  • Great. I have 2 questions. The first one is on iron ore. Eduardo had made the comment that the production to sales gap would tighten a bit in the fourth quarter for iron ore. I was wondering if you can give a bit of color on that, just we've seen a reversal of that? Do you see a destocking normally in the fourth quarter? Is that -- just to clarify, should we expect a destocking in Q4, especially after the sort of the inventory build over the last 12 months?

    偉大的。我有 2 個問題。第一個是鐵礦石。愛德華多表示,第四季鐵礦石產銷差距將略有收緊。我想知道你是否可以對此發表一些看法,只是我們已經看到了這種情況的逆轉?您認為第四季去庫存正常嗎?是不是——只是為了澄清一下,我們是否應該預期第四季度會去庫存,尤其是在過去 12 個月的庫存增加之後?

  • And then my second question is about nickel and it's good to see the operations moving in the right direction. I guess, Deshnee, I don't know if you could share, your outlook on the nickel price, you've been negative free cash flow now for the last 4 quarters, I mean how is that influencing your plans for investment? And I guess just what your thoughts are at the moment with prices where they are?

    我的第二個問題是關於鎳的,很高興看到業務朝著正確的方向發展。我想,Deshnee,我不知道您是否可以分享您對鎳價的展望,過去 4 個季度您的自由現金流一直為負,我的意思是這對您的投資計劃有何影響?我想您目前對價格有何想法?

  • Marcello Magistrini Spinelli - EVP of Iron Ore

    Marcello Magistrini Spinelli - EVP of Iron Ore

  • Tyler, thanks for the question. So yes, you may expect a higher sales than production in the fourth quarter as we have normally in our seasonality, okay? Slightly higher. The sales will be slightly higher than Q3 and same pattern we have.

    泰勒,謝謝你的提問。所以,是的,您可能會預期第四季度的銷售額將高於產量,就像我們通常的季節性那樣,好嗎?稍微高點。銷售額將略高於第三季度,與我們的情況相同。

  • So -- but it's important to reinforce one point here. Our inventories is healthy. We are not hearing or rebuilding any inventory rather than our operational inventory. I've been hearing some noise about that. We have flexibility in our supply chain. So -- and we have the value over volume. So we can -- we are now focusing on blending.

    所以——但在這裡強調一點很重要。我們的庫存狀況良好。除了我們的營運庫存之外,我們沒有聽到或重建任何庫存。我一直聽到一些關於此事的聲音。我們的供應鏈具有彈性。所以——我們的價值超過了數量。所以我們可以——我們現在專注於混合。

  • Sometimes we need to hold the project to blend. So that's exactly what we are doing now. So we are drying Carajas and blending for Q1. And we are anticipating high silica, some high silica product to reduce the concentration in China and anticipating this sales to Q4 this year. So it's dynamic and we need to think as an operational inventory.

    有時我們需要讓專案保持融合。這正是我們現在正在做的事情。因此,我們正在乾燥卡拉加並為第一季進行混合。我們預計高矽,一些高矽產品將減少在中國的集中度,並預計今年第四季的銷售情況。所以它是動態的,我們需要將其視為可操作的庫存。

  • But pay attention for some information, different information from the past. We are increasing the pellet production. So we have a reduction of the mass due to the moisture reduction when you do this. So if you are comparing this year to last year, we have a reduction on the total mass of the company when you compare production sales.

    但要注意一些訊息,與過去不同的訊息。我們正在增加顆粒產量。因此,當您這樣做時,由於水分減少,我們的品質減少了。因此,如果您將今年與去年進行比較,那麼當您比較生產銷售時,我們會發現公司的總品質有所減少。

  • Moisture is something that you already have in your models. And another information that we've been increasing our production in China, our concentration in China that we do -- we have a mass recover that we lose some part of our total volume. So just check these numbers when you consider the buildup of inventories, that exactly it's not part of inventory. We are losing mass when you do this.

    水分是模型中已經存在的東西。另一個訊息是,我們一直在增加在中國的產量,我們在中國的集中度——我們已經大規模恢復,我們損失了部分總產量。因此,當您考慮庫存的累積時,只需檢查這些數字即可,因為它確實不是庫存的一部分。當你這樣做時,我們正在失去品質。

  • Deshnee Naidoo - EVP of Base Metals

    Deshnee Naidoo - EVP of Base Metals

  • Tyler, thank you so much for the question. I think on nickel, the question was more around what am I thinking about the outlook in terms of how that price is going to match what's happening inside the business? Just in terms of inside the business, the nickel business is in transition. The Voisey's Bay project in which we are taking or building 2 underground mines to replace the open-put Ovoid mine will only start to deliver those ramped-up tonnes from the third quarter of next year until that period the kind of the spiky cost that we see will remain within the business.

    泰勒,非常感謝你的提問。我認為就鎳而言,問題更多的是我對前景的看法,即價格將如何與業務內部發生的情況相符?僅從業務內部來看,鎳業務正在轉型。我們正在 Voisey's Bay 項目中建造或建造 2 個地下礦井,以取代露天 Ovoid 礦井,從明年第三季度開始,我們將開始交付增加的噸數,直到那個時期,我們的成本急劇上升。 see 將保留在業務範圍內。

  • I'm very confident after that, you'll start to see a lot more cash come back into the business. In terms of current prices, Tyler, we do not speculate on the nickel price. But all I can say from the data that we are looking at is that the EV demand still continues to be strong despite some of the softening that we are seeing today. And if I look at the current forecast for EV sales today, it's still trending just under $14 million. Although the world was looking at 14.6 million at the start of the year against the 11 million next year.

    我非常有信心在那之後,你會開始看到更多的現金回流到業務中。就目前的價格而言,泰勒,我們不推測鎳價。但從我們看到的數據來看,我只能說,儘管我們今天看到電動車需求有所疲軟,但電動車需求仍然保持強勁。如果我看看目前對電動車銷量的預測,它的趨勢仍然略低於 1400 萬美元。儘管今年年初全世界的人口數為 1,460 萬,而明年則為 1,100 萬。

  • And despite what we're seeing in LFP, it's still the game in China. We're still seeing the right amount of EV battery chemistry demand in the rest of the sector. So I'm going to leave it there. It's all about the business that's in transition projects that we have to do so that Voisey Bay does not create the drag that we currently have in the cost and that the EV sector is still what we are anticipating medium term to be the fastest growing nickel demand sector.

    儘管我們在職業聯賽中看到了這樣的情況,但這仍然是中國的比賽。我們仍然看到該行業其他領域對電動車電池化學品的需求量適量。所以我要把它留在那裡。這一切都與我們必須做的處於轉型項目的業務有關,這樣 Voisey Bay 就不會造成我們目前的成本拖累,並且我們預計電動車行業仍然是中期內增長最快的鎳需求部門。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Leonardo Correa, BTG Pactual.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BTG Pactual 的 Leonardo Correa。

  • Leonardo Correa - Research Analyst

    Leonardo Correa - Research Analyst

  • Can you hear me?

    你聽得到我嗎?

  • Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

    Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Leonardo Correa - Research Analyst

    Leonardo Correa - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. I just wanted to focus my first question on the market, specifically for iron ore, right? I mean we've been seeing very, very solid trends for iron ore. Looking at the key, let's say, KPI, right, very low inventories across the chain at the steel level and also at the port level.

    好的。完美的。我只是想把第一個問題集中在市場上,特別是鐵礦石,對吧?我的意思是,我們已經看到了鐵礦石非常非常穩定的趨勢。看看關鍵,比如說KPI,鋼鐵層級和港口層級的整個鏈條上的庫存都非常低。

  • China continues churning out more than 1 billion tonnes annualized per year, right? I mean looking at Chinese steel exports, they continue very high. If I'm not mistaken, the last level, right, of steel exports from China was the highest level in the year.

    中國每年的產量持續超過 10 億噸,對嗎?我的意思是,看看中國的鋼鐵出口,它們仍然很高。如果我沒記錯的話,中國鋼鐵出口的最後一個水平,對吧,是今年的最高水平。

  • If we think of the issues, right, the main concern, I guess, some months ago was that China would enforce those output curves in steel, which is something that we still have not seen, right? I mean over the past weeks, it seems the sense in China is more of continuity rather than curbing steel production.

    如果我們考慮這些問題,對吧,我想幾個月前主要擔心的是中國將強制執行鋼鐵產量曲線,這是我們還沒有看到的,對嗎?我的意思是,在過去的幾周里,中國的感覺似乎更多的是延續性,而不是限制鋼鐵生產。

  • And at the same time, we're moving into a zone, right, which is seasonally very restricted supply. We get into rainy season in Brazil, in Australia, and at the same time, you see Chinese stimulus, right, at the macro level, just coming through and find they're tapping the fiscal levers, right? So there's a lot going on. But clearly, the outlook for iron ore has been surprising, I think all expectations. And I just wanted to hear how you're seeing the balance of risk if you're seeing -- if it would be valid to say that there's more upside risk at this point than downside, I think that would be helpful?

    同時,我們正在進入一個季節性供應非常有限的區域(右)。我們在巴西和澳洲進入雨季,同時,你看到中國的宏觀刺激措施剛剛實施,發現他們正在利用財政槓桿,對嗎?所以發生了很多事情。但顯然,鐵礦石的前景令人驚訝,我認為這是所有人的預期。我只是想聽聽您如何看待風險平衡,如果您認為目前上行風險多於下行風險的說法是有效的,我認為這會有所幫助嗎?

  • And the second question on my side, I could have missed this, so sorry, I joined the call a little bit later, but just on the base metals and moving back to the entire discussion on base metals, I'm going to avoid the performance issues, right? I think that they were addressed over the past minutes. But just on capital allocation in base metals, right?

    我這邊的第二個問題,我可能會錯過這個,所以抱歉,我稍後加入了電話會議,但只是關於基本金屬並回到關於基本金屬的整個討論,我將避免性能問題吧?我認為這些問題在過去的幾分鐘裡已經解決。但只是在基本金屬的資本配置上,對嗎?

  • We still don't have a plan on the future investment program, where exactly you're allocating capital? I mean from previous commentary, I get a sense that you're probably going to be more inclined investing in Brazil, probably more copper exposure in Brazil. But how is that progressing? I mean is there any update? Or should we look into any announcement at Vale Day on where investments are moving at base metal specifically? Those are the questions.

    我們還沒有對未來的投資計畫進行規劃,您具體將資金配置到哪裡?我的意思是,從之前的評論中,我感覺到你可能會更傾向於投資巴西,可能會在巴西投資更多的銅。但進展如何?我的意思是有更新嗎?或者我們應該研究淡水河谷日上有關賤金屬投資具體走向的公告?這些就是問題。

  • Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

    Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

  • Okay. Well, I'll ask Spinelli to answer the market and Gustavo on the base metals, but upside risk.

    好的。好吧,我會請斯皮內利回答市場和古斯塔沃關於基本金屬的問題,但有上行風險。

  • Marcello Magistrini Spinelli - EVP of Iron Ore

    Marcello Magistrini Spinelli - EVP of Iron Ore

  • Well, Leo thank you for your question. So first of all, you point out many information that supports our strong -- our view about what Eduardo just said. We have a more optimistic view about China in the market. And we can say that's the China resilience. It's really clear that the government now is supporting and given all the signs that they want to keep their goal of GDP, GDP per capita that is already established.

    好吧,利奧,謝謝你的問題。首先,您指出了許多支持我們對愛德華多剛才所說內容的強烈觀點的訊息。我們對中國市場的看法比較樂觀。我們可以說這就是中國的韌性。很明顯,政府現在正在支持並考慮到所有跡象表明他們希望保持已經確定的 GDP 和人均 GDP 目標。

  • So many of us are always tracking the properties as decrease -- that is actually decreasing and we have some numbers of minus 7% of decrease and we have a more optimistic or a less bearish view about this when you consider some other information rather than NBS like who that we have a slighter decrease of minus 2%.

    我們中的許多人總是追蹤房地產的下降情況——實際上是在下降,我們有一些數字下降了-7%,當你考慮一些其他資訊而不是國家統計局時,我們對此有更樂觀或更不悲觀的看法就像誰說我們有負2%的輕微下降。

  • So this is the common sense that we can disagree. But I want to drag your attention for the bright side of what's going on in China. So first thing, there is a reinventing of the manufacturing in China. So we can see what the government said, quality development. They are leading the green industry, turbines, all the equipments to support decarbonization in the world are being produced in China to support their domestic demand and also the export.

    所以這是我們可以不同意的常識。但我想提請大家注意中國正在發生的事情的光明面。首先,中國的製造業需要重塑。所以我們可以看到政府所說的高品質發展。他們引領綠色產業,渦輪機,世界上所有支援脫碳的設備都在中國生產,以支持他們的內需和出口。

  • They are in production of double digit for small appliance. EVs, they are flooding the world with their cars, and we see this in Brazil. So there is a new platform of manufacturing that is going on in China. And they need more high-quality steel to support that. Infrastructure, they announced (inaudible) RMB 1 trillion, that we saw, that will support next year the increase of more infrastructure.

    他們的小家電產量達到兩位數。電動車,他們的汽車充斥著世界,我們在巴西看到了這一點。因此,中國正在建立一個新的製造平台。他們需要更多優質鋼材來支持這一點。基礎設施方面,他們宣布(聽不清楚)1兆元人民幣,我們看到,這將支持明年更多基礎設施的增加。

  • And they are already exporting as you said 8 million tonnes that they will probably balance that export next year when the infrastructure will play a more important role. This is the main figure. Another point that we should pay attention.

    正如您所說,他們已經出口了 800 萬噸,明年基礎設施將發揮更重要的作用時,他們可能會平衡出口。這是主要人物。還有一點值得我們注意。

  • We always track the CSP, the crude steel production, in China. But pay attention in PIP, the pig iron production in China. There is a decline in the production of flat and rebar. So when you need flat, you need a better quality production and we need to use the best furnace route, so you need more iron ore. CSP is increasing 1.7%, PIP 2.8%. That is supporting also the iron ore production in China. And you have a lack of scrap to support a route. So there's another important information to show that we have a strong demand, not only for short term but also for mid- and long term.

    我們始終追蹤中國的 CSP(粗鋼產量)。但要注意PIP,即中國的生鐵產量。扁鋼和螺紋鋼產量下降。因此,當您需要平板時,您需要更高品質的生產,我們需要使用最好的熔爐路線,因此您需要更多的鐵礦石。 CSP 成長 1.7%,PIP 成長 2.8%。這也支持了中國的鐵礦石生產。而且你缺乏廢料來支持一條路線。所以還有一個重要的訊息顯示我們有強勁的需求,不僅是短期的,而且是中長期的。

  • Again, in the supply side, let's talk about the balance of supply side. We don't see a strong any strong support from any region to increase the supply of iron ore in the seaborne market, actually is a decrease. And India now is decreasing probably for next year. They are blooming there.

    再次,在供給側,我們來談談供給側的平衡。我們沒有看到任何地區對增加海運市場鐵礦石供應的強大的支持,實際上是減少了。印度現在可能在明年減少。它們在那裡盛開。

  • And that's important information. I'm not just taken information of the market. We are selling to India. We just signed a 5 million tonne contract to India to support them in this very high-speed growth. So we see a tight market, a very balanced market in the supply side and demand side that can support this upside risk that Eduardo just mentioned.

    這是重要的訊息。我不只是獲取市場資訊。我們正在向印度銷售。我們剛剛與印度簽署了一份500萬噸的合同,以支持他們的高速成長。所以我們看到一個緊張的市場,一個供給面和需求面非常平衡的市場,可以支撐愛德華多剛才提到的這種上行風險。

  • Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

    Gustavo Duarte Pimenta - Executive VP of Finance & IR

  • Now just quickly on base metals. We'll bring more information. We are running out of time here, but we bring more information at Vale Day as a result of the asset review. Remember, one of the reasons why we did the carve-out is exactly to position base metals for growth. There is a series of projects. You probably saw in our release yesterday, the project we announced in Indonesia, Pomala. It's a large project there.

    現在就快速討論賤金屬。我們將帶來更多資訊。我們的時間已經不多了,但我們在淡水河谷日上透過資產審查帶來了更多資訊。請記住,我們進行剝離的原因之一正是為了定位基本金屬以促進成長。有一系列的項目。您可能在我們昨天發布的新聞稿中看到了我們在印尼波馬拉宣布的項目。那裡是一個大工程。

  • So there's a lot of copper projects in Brazil that we are looking to accelerate. So we'll bring this in a more structured way at Vale Day, but certainly, we want to accelerate growth at base metals.

    因此,我們正在尋求加速巴西的許多銅計畫。因此,我們將在淡水河谷日以更結構化的方式提出這一點,但當然,我們希望加速基本金屬的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo at this time you may proceed with your closing statements.

    今天的問答環節到此結束。愛德華多·巴托洛梅奧先生,此時您可以繼續進行結案陳詞。

  • Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

    Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo - President & CEO

  • Okay. Thank you. Well, I have never been so optimistic about the future of this company. After we did the reshape that we sold 9 business, we're going to be focused on our 2 unique assets in iron ore and base metals. What we're seeing all leading operational KPIs and safety indicators in iron ore are substantially better since '19.

    好的。謝謝。嗯,我從來沒有對這家公司的未來如此樂觀過。在我們出​​售 9 項業務進行重組後,我們將專注於鐵礦石和賤金屬這兩項獨特資產。我們看到,自 19 年以來,鐵礦石領域所有領先的營運 KPI 和安全指標都大幅改善。

  • As Spinelli mentioned, we have a very resilient market ahead of us, even in nickel with the softening that is happening now, but we see a bright future for nickel and copper is needless to explain. And of course, the aftermath of the carve-out is showing us in fixing the operational issues, we have even more value to extract on those assets.

    正如斯皮內利所提到的,我們面前有一個非常有彈性的市場,即使鎳現在正在走軟,但我們看到鎳和銅的光明前景無需解釋。當然,剝離的後果向我們表明,在解決營運問題時,我們可以從這些資產中提取更多價值。

  • As I have been always saying, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon. But as I said, I have never been so optimistic and thanks a lot for your attention, and let's see you in the next call.

    正如我一直說的,這不是短跑,而是馬拉松。但正如我所說,我從未如此樂觀,非常感謝您的關注,讓我們下次通話再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vale's conference call for today is now concluded. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    淡水河谷今天的電話會議現已結束。非常感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。