Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Upstart Q3 FY 2021 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Upstart 2021 財年第三季度財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jason Schmidt。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results. With us on today's call are Dave Girouard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 Upstart 的 2021 年第三季度財務業績。 Upstart 的首席執行官 Dave Girouard 與我們一起參加今天的電話會議；和我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Datta。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2021 financial results and published an investor relations presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.upstart.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天市場收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了其 2021 年第三季度的財務業績，並發布了一份投資者關係報告。兩者都可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.upstart.com 上找到。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance from the fourth quarter related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如第四季度與我們的業務相關的指導以及我們未來擴展平台的計劃。這些陳述基於我們目前的預期和截至今天可用的信息，並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。由於我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。因此，我們告誡您不要過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，除非法律要求。

In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables. (Operator Instructions)

此外，在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則對我們結果的引用作為非公認會計原則財務指標提供，並與我們的公認會計原則結果相一致，可在收益發布和補充表格中找到。 （操作員說明）

Later this quarter, Upstart will be participating in Citi's 2021 Fintech Conference on November 16 and 17.

本季度晚些時候，Upstart 將於 11 月 16 日至 17 日參加花旗 2021 年金融科技大會。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

現在我想把它交給 Upstart 的首席執行官 Dave Girouard。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our quarterly earnings call covering our third quarter 2021 results. I'm Dave Girouard, Cofounder and CEO of Upstart.

大家下午好。感謝您參加我們關於 2021 年第三季度業績的季度收益電話會議。我是 Upstart 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Dave Girouard。

Today marks our fourth earnings report as a publicly traded company, and I continue to be amazed and delighted with the progress the Upstart team has made. This is an entirely unique time in our history, and executing as a newly public company in this environment is not without challenges. 4 out of 5 Upstarters joined our company during the pandemic, and many have neither seen the inside of an Upstart office nor met their new colleagues in person. Yet collectively, they continue to knock down walls and make amazing things happen.

今天是我們作為一家上市公司的第四份收益報告，我繼續對 Upstart 團隊所取得的進步感到驚訝和高興。這是我們歷史上一個完全獨特的時期，在這種環境下作為一家新上市公司執行並非沒有挑戰。在大流行期間，五分之四的 Upstarter 加入了我們公司，許多人既沒有看到 Upstart 辦公室的內部，也沒有親自見過他們的新同事。然而，總的來說，他們繼續推倒牆壁，讓令人驚奇的事情發生。

Artificial intelligence is perhaps the most transformational technology the world has yet to see, and Upstart is at the forefront of applying AI to the multitrillion-dollar financial services industry, so the scale of the opportunity is not lost on us.

人工智能可能是世界上尚未見到的最具變革性的技術，而 Upstart 處於將人工智能應用於價值數万億美元的金融服務行業的最前沿，因此我們並沒有失去機會的規模。

Q3 was another strong quarter of triple-digit growth and profits, and we'll get to that shortly. But it's worth pausing for a moment to reflect on what our team has accomplished in the year since we went public. In the 6 years leading up to our IPO, 620,000 loans were originated on the Upstart platform. A year later, our bank and credit union partners have originated more than 1.5 million Upstart-powered loans, totaling more than $16 billion in originations. While there were 80,893 loans originated on our platform in Q3 2020, which was the quarter prior to our IPO, we facilitated 362,780 Upstart-powered loans in Q3 2021. That's a growth rate of 348%.

第三季度是另一個三位數增長和利潤的強勁季度，我們很快就會談到這一點。但值得停下來思考一下我們的團隊在上市後的一年中取得的成就。在我們首次公開募股前的 6 年中，620,000 筆貸款源自 Upstart 平台。一年後，我們的銀行和信用合作夥伴發起了超過 150 萬筆 Upstart 貸款，總額超過 160 億美元。雖然在 2020 年第三季度（也就是我們首次公開募股前的一個季度），我們的平台產生了 80,893 筆貸款，但我們在 2021 年第三季度促成了 362,780 筆新貴貸款。增長率為 348%。

As you could read in Upstart's S-1 filing, our AI platform had experienced 9 million repayment events and was trained on 15 billion cells of training data as of a year ago. Today, our platform has processed 17 million repayment events and is trained on 28 billion cells of training data.

正如您在 Upstart 的 S-1 文件中看到的那樣，截至一年前，我們的 AI 平台已經經歷了 900 萬次還款事件，並接受了 150 億個訓練數據單元的訓練。今天，我們的平台已經處理了 1700 萬次還款事件，並在 280 億個訓練數據單元上進行了訓練。

A year ago, we had 10 bank and credit union partners in our platform. Today, we have 31 partners, and we're adding them faster than ever. We're also making progress in how rapidly we can onboard these partners. In fact, our most recent bank partner went live on the platform in less than 50 days.

一年前，我們的平台上有 10 家銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴。今天，我們有 31 個合作夥伴，而且我們的添加速度比以往任何時候都快。我們也在以多快的速度加入這些合作夥伴方面取得進展。事實上，我們最近的銀行合作夥伴在不到 50 天的時間內就在該平台上上線了。

A year ago, a handful of auto loans had been refinanced in a single state. Today, more than 4,000 Upstart-powered auto loans have been originated in 47 different states.

一年前，少數汽車貸款在一個州進行了再融資。今天，超過 4,000 筆由 Upstart 驅動的汽車貸款來自 47 個不同的州。

We also became a digital-first company this year. In Q3 of 2019, 100% of our new hires were located in either California or Ohio. In Q3 2021, we hired new Upstarters in 25 different states, as well as the District of Columbia.

今年，我們還成為了一家數字優先的公司。 2019 年第三季度，我們 100% 的新員工位於加利福尼亞州或俄亥俄州。在 2021 年第三季度，我們在 25 個不同的州以及哥倫比亞特區聘請了新的 Upstarter。

Now I would like to shift and talk about the products on our platform today, personal lending and auto lending, and the progress we're making with each. Then I'd like to touch on a few new product areas that are important to our future and that we're beginning to invest in today.

現在我想談談今天我們平台上的產品，個人貸款和汽車貸款，以及我們在每個方面取得的進展。然後我想談談對我們的未來很重要並且我們今天開始投資的一些新產品領域。

Personal loans continued to drive the growth and profitable economics of Upstart. Post pandemic, the demand for these simple installment products has reaccelerated. I like to refer to personal loans as the duct tape of credit, a fast and simple solution that consumers love for their usefulness, affordability and accessibility. And banks are beginning to realize that offering instant all-digital personal loans makes sense, unless they want their customers to find them elsewhere.

個人貸款繼續推動 Upstart 的增長和盈利經濟。大流行後，對這些簡單的分期付款產品的需求再次加速。我喜歡將個人貸款稱為信用膠帶，這是一種快速而簡單的解決方案，消費者因其實用性、可負擔性和可及性而喜愛。銀行開始意識到提供即時全數字個人貸款是有意義的，除非他們希望客戶在其他地方找到它們。

Last quarter, I told you that, for the first time, an Upstart bank partner decided to eliminate any and all FICO requirements for their borrowers. Today, I can happily report that of those who are approved for Upstart-powered loans because of this change, 59% were Black, Hispanic or low to moderate income. And even better, I'm also pleased to tell you that 4 Upstart bank partners have now dropped their FICO requirement. In just a few months, what was perhaps a canary in the coal mine has now become a trend.

上個季度，我告訴過你，Upstart 銀行合作夥伴第一次決定取消對其借款人的任何和所有 FICO 要求。今天，我可以高興地報告說，在因這一變化而獲准獲得 Upstart 貸款的人中，59% 是黑人、西班牙裔或中低收入。更棒的是，我也很高興地告訴你，4 家 Upstart 銀行合作夥伴現在已經放棄了他們的 FICO 要求。在短短幾個月內，或許曾經是煤礦中的金絲雀，如今已成為一種趨勢。

We applaud any and all lenders that eliminate credit score requirements. These trailblazers are building businesses that are more inclusive, more equitable and yet more profitable. Their commitments represent a small step to the future but provide a major boost to the financial inclusion that our country desperately needs. While this is just the beginning of a trend, we anticipate a day when lenders will struggle to explain why they rely on a 3-digit number invented 30 years ago to make a credit decision.

我們讚揚所有取消信用評分要求的貸方。這些開拓者正在建立更具包容性、更公平、更有利可圖的企業。他們的承諾代表著向未來邁出的一小步，但極大地推動了我們國家迫切需要的金融包容性。雖然這只是一個趨勢的開始，但我們預計有一天貸方將難以解釋為什麼他們依賴 30 年前發明的 3 位數字來做出信貸決定。

While a lot of our energy goes towards serving "future prime consumers" currently left out of the financial system, we're also launching initiatives to better serve those with no shortage of credit options. This makes sense because borrowers who use Upstart often see rapid improvements in their credit score and become suddenly very interesting to the entire consumer finance industry. Our bank partners want to serve these customers over their lifetime rather than seeing them defect to competitors who constantly pursue them. And if it's important for our bank partners, then it's important for Upstart.

雖然我們的很多精力都用於為目前被排除在金融體系之外的“未來主要消費者”提供服務，但我們也在推出一些舉措，以更好地為那些不缺乏信貸選擇的人提供服務。這是有道理的，因為使用 Upstart 的借款人經常看到他們的信用評分迅速提高，並突然變得對整個消費金融行業非常感興趣。我們的銀行合作夥伴希望在他們的一生中為這些客戶服務，而不是看到他們背叛不斷追求他們的競爭對手。如果這對我們的銀行合作夥伴很重要，那麼對 Upstart 也很重要。

It turns out it's important for Upstart for other reasons as well. Only by serving consumers across the entire credit spectrum can we reach our full potential. Even if your credit score begins with a 7 or an 8, you are more than your credit score. By working with our bank partners, we're beginning to deliver instant loan offers with no origination fees and with rates that are as attractive as any on the market. Full-spectrum competitiveness unlocks broader branding opportunities for Upstart, such as television. These are marketing channels that might not have made economic sense to us previously.

事實證明，由於其他原因，它對 Upstart 也很重要。只有通過為整個信用範圍內的消費者提供服務，我們才能充分發揮我們的潛力。即使您的信用評分以 7 或 8 開頭，您也不僅僅是您的信用評分。通過與我們的銀行合作夥伴合作，我們開始提供即時貸款優惠，無需支付任何費用，而且利率與市場上任何產品一樣具有吸引力。全方位的競爭力為 Upstart 帶來更廣泛的品牌機會，例如電視。這些營銷渠道以前可能對我們沒有經濟意義。

Our efforts in auto lending continued to make progress as well. As a reminder, the auto lending market is at least 6x the size of personal loan market. In our view, it's at least as inefficient. Millions of Americans pay too much for their car loans every month, and I'm sure each would prefer to spend that money on something else, or even better, to save it for a rainy day. If you don't believe me, just Google consumer reports auto loans, and you'll see an interesting article published just a few weeks ago.

我們在汽車貸款方面的努力也繼續取得進展。提醒一下，汽車貸款市場的規模至少是個人貸款市場的 6 倍。在我們看來，它至少同樣低效。數以百萬計的美國人每個月為他們的汽車貸款支付了太多的費用，我相信每個人都更願意把這些錢花在別的東西上，甚至更好，以備不時之需。如果你不相信我，只要谷歌消費者報告汽車貸款，你就會看到幾週前發表的一篇有趣的文章。

On the auto refinance front, we continue to make fast progress to eliminate the time and effort required to refinance a car loan. While the complexities of liens and titles, as well as a bewildering array of state-by-state processes, fees and regulations, conspired to keep Americans trapped in their mispriced car loans, we're on track to repeat the funnel gains we experienced over the years in our personal loan product.

在汽車再融資方面，我們繼續快速取得進展，以消除為汽車貸款再融資所需的時間和精力。雖然留置權和所有權的複雜性，以及令人眼花繚亂的各州流程、費用和法規，共同使美國人陷入了錯誤定價的汽車貸款中，但我們正步入正軌，重複我們經歷過的漏斗收益我們個人貸款產品的年限。

In their auto insurance commercials, GEICO delivers a message that resonates with me: 15 minutes can save you 15%. While we can't use GEICO's tagline, my goal is that Upstart and our bank partners will emulate that value proposition to consumers who are paying too much on their car loans.

在他們的汽車保險廣告中，GEICO 傳達了一個讓我產生共鳴的信息：15 分鐘可以為您節省 15%。雖然我們不能使用 GEICO 的標語，但我的目標是 Upstart 和我們的銀行合作夥伴將向那些為汽車貸款支付過多費用的消費者效仿這一價值主張。

We're also making rapid progress on our auto purchase product. In the third quarter, we rebranded the company and the product formerly known as Prodigy to Upstart Auto Retail, but our progress in auto retail went far beyond rebranding. In fact, we've now tripled the number of dealers on our platform compared to a year ago. And in Q3, we added an average of more than one rooftop a day.

我們也在汽車購買產品上取得快速進展。在第三季度，我們將公司和以前稱為 Prodigy 的產品重新命名為 Upstart Auto Retail，但我們在汽車零售方面的進展遠遠超出了品牌重塑。事實上，與一年前相比，我們現在平台上的經銷商數量增加了兩倍。在第三季度，我們平均每天增加一個以上的屋頂。

I'm also excited to tell you about a major new milestone for our company. Just last week, the first Upstart-powered loan was originated through our auto retail software with one of our long-standing dealership partners right here in the Bay Area. Our early experience is showing us how powerful it can be to offer instant decisioning, high approval rates, a broad selection of terms and payments, all integrated into a digital process. This is a big deal, not just for Upstart, but for the entire auto industry. It represents the first step toward leveraging AI to rewire and revamp the entire car-buying process.

我也很高興向您介紹我們公司的一個重要的新里程碑。就在上週，第一筆以 Upstart 為動力的貸款是通過我們的汽車零售軟件與我們在灣區的長期經銷商合作夥伴之一發起的。我們的早期經驗向我們展示了提供即時決策、高批准率、廣泛的條款和付款選擇，所有這些都集成到數字流程中是多麼強大。這是一件大事，不僅對Upstart，而且對整個汽車行業都是如此。它代表了利用人工智能重新佈線和改造整個購車過程的第一步。

And finally, we hear a lot of questions about where Upstart plans to go next. We've been clear with our lending partners and with the investor community that we intend to expand our AI platform beyond the personal and auto lending categories. And today, we want to share more about those plans.

最後，我們聽到很多關於 Upstart 下一步計劃去哪裡的問題。我們已經與我們的貸款合作夥伴和投資者社區明確表示，我們打算將我們的人工智能平台擴展到個人和汽車貸款類別之外。今天，我們想分享更多關於這些計劃的信息。

First, we're working toward a small-dollar loan product designed to help consumers with unexpected and immediate cash needs, think a few hundred dollars repaid in just a few months. But importantly, we're building a bank-ready product at bank-friendly APRs, always operating within the 36% rate cap prescribed to nationally chartered banks and to those who serve U.S. military service members. In short, with better technology, superior risk models and a dramatic reduction in the cost of origination, we hope to welcome millions of Americans into the mainstream financial system who would otherwise be left with far less attractive options.

首先，我們正在開發一種小額貸款產品，旨在幫助有意外和即時現金需求的消費者，想想在短短幾個月內償還幾百美元。但重要的是，我們正在以銀行友好的 APR 構建銀行就緒產品，始終在為國家特許銀行和為美國軍人服務的人規定的 36% 利率上限內運作。簡而言之，憑藉更好的技術、卓越的風險模型和顯著降低的發起成本，我們希望歡迎數百萬美國人加入主流金融體系，否則他們的選擇將遠沒有那麼有吸引力。

Upstart stands to benefit from this small-dollar product as well. It can significantly accelerate the pace with which we can bring the underbanked into the financial system, and it can likewise accelerate the pace of learning by Upstart's AI models. We aim to bring millions of marginalized consumers onto our platform in the coming years so that our lending partners can serve them with a host of affordable financial products over time. Our bank partners rightly feel pressured to better serve low- to moderate-income Americans, and we want to help them do that right. The interest in the small-dollar product from our bank and credit union partners is off the charts, and we hope to bring it to market before the end of 2022.

新貴也將從這種小額產品中受益。它可以顯著加快我們將資金不足的人帶入金融系統的速度，同樣可以加快 Upstart 的 AI 模型的學習速度。我們的目標是在未來幾年將數百萬邊緣化消費者引入我們的平台，以便我們的貸款合作夥伴能夠隨著時間的推移為他們提供一系列負擔得起的金融產品。我們的銀行合作夥伴理所當然地感受到了更好地為中低收入美國人服務的壓力，我們希望幫助他們做到這一點。我們的銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴對小額美元產品的興趣已經超出預期，我們希望在 2022 年底之前將其推向市場。

Second, we believe there's an unmet need to provide fast, easy access to affordable installment loans to business owners across the country. Every small business is different, and they operate across a crazy wide spectrum of industries. So there are significant challenges to delivering a compelling loan product that is useful to business owners yet is reliable, performant and efficient enough for lenders. This challenge is tailor-made for Upstart.

其次，我們認為，向全國各地的企業主提供快速、輕鬆獲得負擔得起的分期貸款的需求尚未得到滿足。每個小企業都是不同的，它們的業務範圍非常廣泛。因此，提供對企業主有用但對貸方來說足夠可靠、性能和效率足夠高的引人注目的貸款產品面臨著重大挑戰。這個挑戰是為 Upstart 量身定做的。

While there's no shortage of credit options to business owners, we aim to deliver the 0-latency, affordable credit solution that modern businesses require. This is another product in high demand from our bank and credit union partners, and we hope to bring it to market during 2022 as well.

雖然企業主不乏信貸選擇，但我們的目標是提供現代企業所需的 0 延遲、負擔得起的信貸解決方案。這是我們的銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴非常需要的另一種產品，我們也希望在 2022 年將其推向市場。

And finally, I would be remiss if I didn't mention what the late great sportscaster Keith Jackson would call the granddaddy of them all: the home mortgage market. It's, by far, the largest consumer lending category. And to Upstart, it represents a proportionately large opportunity to improve the financial lives of Americans.

最後，如果我不提到已故的偉大體育解說員基思·傑克遜（Keith Jackson）所說的他們所有人的祖父，那我將是失職的：房屋抵押貸款市場。它是迄今為止最大的消費貸款類別。對 Upstart 而言，它代表了一個相當大的機會來改善美國人的財務生活。

We're all familiar with the financial crisis of 2008 to 2010, triggered by irresponsible mortgage lending, among other things. Well, one sad outcome of that crisis was a seemingly permanent reduction in access to affordable mortgages to the average American. In fact, a study by the Urban Institute found that if you compare the number of mortgages originated to Americans with FICO scores less than 700 in 2001, 6 or 7 years before the crisis, with the number originated to that same group in 2015, you'll find that there were more than 1 million fewer mortgages in 2015. This is what we call the missing million. And from where we stand, it's crystal clear that a huge fraction of these million would-be homeowners are more than creditworthy and deserve access to an affordable mortgage. This is an opportunity that we're excited about and we'll begin to invest in significantly throughout 2022. While this initiative has a longer time horizon on it, we felt it's important to share our intention right now.

我們都熟悉 2008 年至 2010 年的金融危機，這種危機是由不負責任的抵押貸款等引發的。好吧，那場危機的一個可悲結果是，普通美國人獲得負擔得起的抵押貸款的機會似乎永久減少。事實上，城市研究所的一項研究發現，如果您將 2001 年（即危機前 6 或 7 年）源自 FICO 分數低於 700 的美國人的抵押貸款數量與 2015 年源自同一群體的數量進行比較，您'會發現2015年抵押貸款減少了超過100萬。這就是我們所說的失踪百萬。從我們的立場來看，很明顯，在這數百萬潛在的房主中，很大一部分不僅信譽良好，而且應該獲得負擔得起的抵押貸款。這是一個讓我們感到興奮的機會，我們將在 2022 年開始大力投資。雖然這項計劃的時間跨度更長，但我們認為現在就分享我們的意圖很重要。

Before I turn it over to Sanjay, I want to say thank you to the entire Upstart team for once again making me proud to be part of this company. Our team understands the impact that Upstart has already had in the world, and the magnitude of the opportunity in front of us is that much larger. But without the amazing talent and dedication of each team member at Upstart, that incredible opportunity would go unrealized.

在我把它交給 Sanjay 之前，我想對整個 Upstart 團隊表示感謝，他們再次讓我為成為這家公司的一員而感到自豪。我們的團隊了解 Upstart 已經對世界產生的影響，而擺在我們面前的機會的規模要大得多。但是，如果沒有 Upstart 每個團隊成員的驚人才能和奉獻精神，這個令人難以置信的機會將無法實現。

Thank you. And now I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q3 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

謝謝你。現在我想把它交給我們的首席財務官 Sanjay 來介紹我們的第三季度財務業績和指導。桑傑？

Thank you, Dave, and thanks to everyone for joining today. I hope all are well. I will take us for a quick spin through the numbers.

謝謝你，戴夫，也感謝大家今天加入。我希望一切都好。我將帶我們快速瀏覽一下這些數字。

Starting at the top of the P&L. Revenues came in this quarter at $228 million, up 250% from the third quarter of last year and up 18% sequentially from last quarter. Of that total revenue, $210 million or 92% came in the form of revenue from fees.

從損益表頂部開始。本季度收入為 2.28 億美元，比去年第三季度增長 250%，比上一季度環比增長 18%。在總收入中，2.1 億美元或 92% 來自收費收入。

The volume of transactions across our platform this quarter was approximately 363,000 loans, up 348% year-over-year and representing approximately 315,000 new borrowers. As Dave alluded to, we are methodically expanding our footprint to serve more of the credit spectrum, both towards more traditionally prime borrowers as the proliferation of bank deposit funding on our platform enables us to be more rate-competitive in segments where we have historically had limited presence, as well as deeper into the millions of Americans whose poor credit scores do not accurately reflect their true creditworthiness.

本季度我們平台上的交易量約為 363,000 筆貸款，同比增長 348%，代表約 315,000 名新借款人。正如戴夫所暗示的那樣，我們正在有條不紊地擴大我們的足跡以服務於更多的信貸範圍，既面向更傳統的優質借款人，因為我們平台上銀行存款資金的擴散使我們能夠在我們歷史上擁有的細分市場中更具利率競爭力有限的存在，以及更深入地了解數百萬信用評分不佳無法準確反映其真實信譽的美國人。

This increased breadth of borrower profiles in both directions has driven up the volume of applications at the top of our acquisition funnel by a factor of 3 over the past year but has also exerted downward pressure on the average platform conversion rate, which, at 23.0%, is up 780 basis points versus last year but down sequentially from 24.4% last quarter. Borrower segments that are relatively newer to our models will initially tend to convert at a lower rate than those segments for which we have longer history.

在過去一年中，雙向借款人資料的廣度使我們收購漏斗頂部的申請量增加了 3 倍，但也對平均平台轉化率施加了下行壓力，即 23.0% ，與去年相比上升了 780 個基點，但比上一季度的 24.4% 連續下降。對我們的模型而言相對較新的借款人細分市場最初的轉化率往往低於我們歷史悠久的借款人細分市場。

The percentage of loans fully automated on our platform is also down slightly to 67% in Q3 from 71% last quarter for similar reasons. Newer borrower profiles will tend to have more conservative rates of instantaneous approval until we develop a longer history and greater loan volume for our models to train on.

出於類似原因，我們平台上全自動貸款的百分比也從上一季度的 71% 小幅下降至第三季度的 67%。較新的借款人資料往往具有更保守的瞬時批准率，直到我們為我們的模型開發更長的歷史和更大的貸款量來訓練。

As a compounding factor, this past quarter, we experienced a large, coordinated effort to obtain loans fraudulently from our platform. We bore no meaningful financial impact from this activity, but our increasingly public profile as a company leads us to expect that episodes of this type will become increasingly common.

作為一個複合因素，在上個季度，我們經歷了大規模的協調努力，從我們的平台以欺詐方式獲得貸款。這項活動對我們沒有任何有意義的財務影響，但我們作為一家公司日益公開的形象使我們預計此類事件將變得越來越普遍。

This new reality has motivated us to implement additional protections through our origination processes, and these defensive measures have contributed modestly to lower automation rates.

這一新現實促使我們通過我們的原始流程實施額外的保護，這些防禦措施對降低自動化率做出了適度的貢獻。

Since fraudulent applications also inflate the denominator of our conversion ratios, we have begun removing those rate inquiries identified by our platform as likely fraudulent from our conversion rate calculation. Such fraudulent applications had an immaterial impact to the conversion rate in prior quarters.

由於欺詐性應用程序也會誇大我們轉化率的分母，因此我們已開始從我們的轉化率計算中刪除那些被我們的平台識別為可能具有欺詐性的費率查詢。此類欺詐性申請對前幾個季度的轉換率影響不大。

Our contribution profit, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing, was $95.9 million in Q3, up 184% year-over-year and representing a 46% contribution margin, down from a margin of 54% in the year prior and slightly above our guided level of 45%. As discussed on past earnings calls, this margin was expected to moderate concurrent with the scaling up of our acquisition programs, as well as from the margin impact of our growing auto loan volumes.

我們的貢獻利潤是一個非 GAAP 指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的可變成本，第三季度為 9590 萬美元，同比增長 184%，貢獻利潤率為 46%，低於上年 54% 的利潤率，略高於我們 45% 的指導水平。正如在過去的財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，隨著我們收購計劃的擴大以及我們不斷增長的汽車貸款量對利潤率的影響，預計這一利潤率將放緩。

Q3 operating expenses were $200 million, up 276% year-over-year or 239% when netting out the impact of stock-based compensation.

第三季度運營費用為 2 億美元，扣除股票薪酬的影響後，同比增長 276% 或 239%。

Investment in engineering and R&D remains our priority, growing 272% to $37 million in Q3. We plan to continue investing heavily in our technical workforce as we ramp investments in machine learning, auto retail, fraud and as we scramble new teams to begin tackling opportunities in segments, such as the small-dollar lending, small business lending and mortgage initiatives discussed by Dave.

工程和研發投資仍然是我們的首要任務，第三季度增長 272% 至 3700 萬美元。隨著我們加大對機器學習、汽車零售、欺詐的投資，以及我們爭先恐後地爭取新團隊開始處理細分市場的機會，例如討論的小額貸款、小企業貸款和抵押貸款計劃，我們計劃繼續大力投資於我們的技術勞動力戴夫。

General and administrative spend grew slower than revenue in Q3, increasing 241% year-over-year to $34 million. The other expense categories of sales and marketing and customer operations were largely driven by variable cost increases supporting revenue growth.

第三季度一般和行政支出的增長速度低於收入，同比增長 241% 至 3400 萬美元。銷售和營銷以及客戶運營的其他費用類別主要是由支持收入增長的可變成本增長推動的。

Our Q3 GAAP net income was $29.1 million, up 201% from the same quarter of the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $59.1 million in Q3, up 283% from Q3 of 2020. Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 was $0.60 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 96.1 million.

我們第三季度的 GAAP 淨收入為 2910 萬美元，比去年同期增長 201%。第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 5910 萬美元，比 2020 年第三季度增長 283%。根據 9610 萬股的稀釋加權平均股數，第三季度調整後的每股收益為 0.60 美元。

Turning our attention to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $1.2 billion in restricted and unrestricted cash, up from $618 million at the end of last quarter. This balance reflects the proceeds from the convertible senior note offering completed on August 20, which resulted in an additional $587 million of proceeds net, of debt issuance costs and purchase of cap calls.

將注意力轉向資產負債表。我們在本季度末擁有 12 億美元的受限和非受限現金，高於上一季度末的 6.18 億美元。該餘額反映了 8 月 20 日完成的可轉換優先票據發行的收益，這導致額外的 5.87 億美元收益淨額，包括債務發行成本和購買上限。

In terms of loan assets, we carried an aggregate balance of loans, notes and residuals of $140 million, up from $95.3 million in Q3 and down from $145 million at the end of the same quarter in the prior year. While the fraction of overall platform loan volume funded through our own balance sheet remains low at sub-3%, the absolute dollar volume of loans we carry is edging upwards as we use our balance sheet to support the scaling of our growing auto product, as well as our expansion into the lower credit score segments of personal lending.

在貸款資產方面，我們的貸款、票據和殘值總額為 1.4 億美元，高於第三季度的 9530 萬美元，低於去年同期的 1.45 億美元。雖然通過我們自己的資產負債表提供資金的整體平台貸款量的比例仍然很低，低於 3%，但隨著我們使用資產負債表來支持我們不斷增長的汽車產品的擴展，我們持有的絕對美元貸款量正在逐漸上升，因為以及我們擴展到個人貸款的較低信用評分部分。

In terms of macro outlook, we are seeing the early signs of a return to the pre-COVID consumer profile with personal savings rates in the economy now having fallen back to pre-COVID levels and credit card balances steadily edging upwards to within 90% of pre-COVID levels. We expect the continuation of this trend to eventually lead to an increase in consumer default rates, consistent with pre-COVID levels. And we believe that any issuer who has not priced this in is likely to experience a deterioration in the performance of their returns. We also expect these macro dynamics to ultimately lead to an increase in borrower loan demand, although this has yet to manifest in our results and remains upside to our forecast as the exact timing is unclear.

在宏觀前景方面，我們看到了恢復到 COVID 之前的消費者形象的早期跡象，經濟中的個人儲蓄率現在已經回落到 COVID 之前的水平，信用卡餘額穩步上升到 90% 以內COVID 之前的水平。我們預計這一趨勢的持續最終將導致消費者違約率上升，與新冠疫情之前的水平一致。而且我們認為，任何沒有對此定價的發行人都可能會經歷其回報表現的惡化。我們還預計這些宏觀動態最終將導致借款人貸款需求增加，儘管這尚未在我們的結果中體現出來，並且由於確切的時間尚不清楚，因此仍高於我們的預測。

With this backdrop in mind, for Q4 of 2021, we are expecting revenues of $255 million to $265 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 200% at the midpoint and bringing our full year 2021 revenue guidance up to $803 million versus the previously guided number of $750 million; contribution margin of approximately 47%; net income of $16 million to $20 million; adjusted net income of $48 million to $50 million; adjusted EBITDA of $51 million to $53 million; and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 96.7 million shares.

考慮到這一背景，我們預計 2021 年第四季度的收入為 2.55 億美元至 2.65 億美元，中點同比增長率為 200%，使我們的 2021 年全年收入指引達到 8.03 億美元，而先前指導的 7.5 億美元；貢獻率約為 47%；淨收入 1600 萬至 2000 萬美元；調整後的淨收入為 4800 萬美元至 5000 萬美元；調整後的 EBITDA 為 5100 萬美元至 5300 萬美元；稀釋加權平均股數約為 9670 萬股。

I would like to reiterate Dave's gratitude to all of the talented teams at Upstart whose hard work makes all of these results a reality and to also wish everyone a happy upcoming Veterans Day. On behalf of Upstart, we want to express our gratitude to the women and men who serve our country and to those who have sacrificed to keep us all safe.

我想重申 Dave 對 Upstart 的所有才華橫溢的團隊的感謝，他們的辛勤工作使所有這些成果成為現實，並祝大家即將到來的退伍軍人節快樂。我們謹代表 Upstart 向為國家服務的女性和男性以及為保護我們所有人的安全而做出犧牲的人們表示感謝。

With that, Dave and I are now happy to open the call to any questions. Operator?

有了這個，戴夫和我現在很高興打開電話詢問任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Arvind Ramnani with private -- from a private investor.

（操作員說明）我們將向私人投資者提出 Arvind Ramnani 的第一個問題。

Okay. Great. Sorry I was on mute. Yes. I wanted to ask you a question about the quarter. Certainly, when I go back to last rent, you'll raise revenue guidance by $150 million. And this rent, it's -- the raise is smaller. It's roughly about $60 million. And certainly, now you have 2 quarters to play it as opposed to last quarter. We had 3 quarters to kind of play with, but still the magnitude of the beat has diminished. I mean, are you kind of entering a phase where you're sort of -- what you're guiding to and what you'll deliver, do you expect that sort of accuracy to increase and thereby that magnitude of beat to be lowered as a result?

好的。偉大的。對不起，我靜音了。是的。我想問你一個關於本季度的問題。當然，當我回到上次租金時，你的收入指導會提高 1.5 億美元。而這個租金，它是 - 加薪較小。大約是6000萬美元。當然，現在你有 2 個季度可以玩，而不是上個季度。我們有 3 個季度可以玩，但節拍的幅度仍然減弱了。我的意思是，你是否進入了一個階段，你正在引導什麼以及你將提供什麼，你是否期望這種準確性增加，從而降低節拍幅度結果？

Yes. This is Dave. Yes, I would certainly expect that. I mean, our goal is to provide accurate guidance. And so for sure, the more we can understand about the outquarters in our business, the more I would expect us to be reasonably conservative but trying to provide real transparency into what we know and expect about our business. So I would just attribute that to us having a good sense. I mean, our business is growing at a phenomenal rate by any measure, being triple digit and then some revenue growth while being profitable is quite unique in the fintech world. So we're quite pleased with that. And to the extent we can reasonably predict that in the future, we would view that as a positive.

是的。這是戴夫。是的，我當然希望如此。我的意思是，我們的目標是提供準確的指導。因此，可以肯定的是，我們對我們業務的外部業務了解得越多，我就越希望我們合理保守，但努力為我們對業務的了解和期望提供真正的透明度。所以我只想把這歸因於我們有很好的感覺。我的意思是，無論以何種標準衡量，我們的業務都在以驚人的速度增長，達到三位數，然後在實現盈利的同時實現一些收入增長，這在金融科技領域是非常獨特的。所以我們對此非常滿意。在我們可以合理地預測未來的範圍內，我們會認為這是積極的。

Great, great. And then on the call, you talked about certainly the auto business, and these -- it's initially kind of plant the flag on the adjacent businesses within lending, home buying and a couple of those. How should we really think of unit economics of these? I'm just trying to really kind of size up the financial impact because I would assume like personal loan is very different than auto, which is very different than home. Like how -- are you able to kind of provide some kind of financial metrics of how we should start to think about this as we think over the next like 2, 3 years of your financial model?

很棒很棒。然後在電話會議上，您肯定談到了汽車業務，以及這些 - 它最初是在貸款、購房等相鄰業務上插上旗幟。我們應該如何真正看待這些單位經濟學？我只是想真正衡量一下財務影響，因為我認為個人貸款與汽車非常不同，汽車與家庭非常不同。就像如何 - 你是否能夠提供某種財務指標，說明我們應該如何開始考慮這個問題，因為我們在接下來的 2、3 年的財務模型中思考？

Yes. Maybe I'll just try to give a summary view on that question, and then Sanjay can chime in with some more specifics. But generally, we move towards markets where we see significant inefficiencies. And to us, that means we could build a better product for consumers and for our lending partners and also make a profitable product for Upstart. So you don't likely see Upstart chasing low-margin, 0-margin, money-losing parts of the credit industry because they're not of interest to us.

是的。也許我會嘗試對這個問題給出一個總結性的看法，然後 Sanjay 可以加入一些更具體的問題。但總的來說，我們會轉向效率明顯低下的市場。對我們來說，這意味著我們可以為消費者和我們的貸款合作夥伴打造更好的產品，也可以為 Upstart 打造有利可圖的產品。因此，您不太可能看到 Upstart 追逐信貸行業的低利潤、零利潤、虧損部分，因為我們不感興趣。

So the unit economics of each product may be very different in certain ways. But generally speaking, we're obviously looking for strong contribution margins and things that can help us to grow. So if you want to know what sort of company Upstart is, it's one that focuses on obvious inefficiencies where our AI models can deliver kind of excess economics that can make a win for everybody. But the specifics of each product are almost, by definition, different the nature of each product. But I think very -- we're very confident we will continue to drive top line and bottom line growth.

因此，每種產品的單位經濟性在某些方面可能會有很大差異。但總的來說，我們顯然正在尋找強大的邊際貢獻和可以幫助我們成長的東西。因此，如果您想知道 Upstart 是什麼樣的公司，它專注於明顯的低效率，我們的 AI 模型可以提供一種可以為每個人帶來勝利的過度經濟。但是根據定義，每種產品的細節幾乎與每種產品的性質不同。但我認為非常 - 我們非常有信心我們將繼續推動頂線和底線的增長。

Maybe I'll let Sanjay add to that.

也許我會讓桑傑補充一下。

Yes. Sure, Arvind. I guess I would say auto is the sort of the product that's in flight right now, and you could sort of think of it into 2 different categories. One is auto refi. And the unit economics on that product, they're very analogous to what we have in our personal loan category. Meaning the banks that originate the loans will pay us a fee and will incur an acquisition cost and an operations cost, and that will lead to a contribution margin.

是的。當然，阿文德。我想我會說汽車是目前正在流行的那種產品，你可以把它分為兩個不同的類別。一種是自動refi。該產品的單位經濟學與我們的個人貸款類別非常相似。這意味著發放貸款的銀行將向我們支付費用，並將產生購置成本和運營成本，這將導致邊際貢獻。

And look, the contribution margin, as with personal loans, will be a function of how strong our conversion funnel is. So it will be something that improves over time, and it will probably be on some journey similar to what we've seen in personal loans but with obviously a few years behind.

看起來，與個人貸款一樣，邊際貢獻將取決於我們的轉化漏斗有多強。因此，隨著時間的推移，它會有所改善，並且可能會出現類似於我們在個人貸款中看到的情況，但顯然要落後幾年。

And then when you think about the other category of auto that we're getting into now with auto retail lending which is purchase auto at the point of sale in the dealership. And we expect those economics to look better because there's less acquisition costs involved because you're at the point of sale. And frankly, some of the operations required to originate the loan are handled by the dealer. So we view that to be a higher-margin product.

然後，當您考慮我們現在通過汽車零售貸款進入的另一類汽車時，即在經銷商的銷售點購買汽車。而且我們希望這些經濟學看起來更好，因為您在銷售點所涉及的購置成本更少。坦率地說，發起貸款所需的一些操作是由經銷商處理的。所以我們認為這是一個利潤率更高的產品。

And then once you get beyond auto, frankly, it's just way too early to tell. I think we're in the very preliminary stages of thinking about business lending and home lending, so I don't think we have anything much to really report on that front. But I think as we get into those areas, as Dave said, we're really looking for the opportunity to create value and earn profits. So that will be the expectation.

坦率地說，一旦你超越了汽車，現在下結論還為時過早。我認為我們正處於考慮商業貸款和住房貸款的初步階段，所以我認為我們在這方面沒有什麼要真正報告的。但我認為，正如戴夫所說，當我們進入這些領域時，我們真的在尋找創造價值和賺取利潤的機會。所以這將是期望。

Terrific. And just a quick follow-up on that. As we think of -- I'm not looking for guidance in '22 and '23. But as we start to think of those years, how should we think of kind of revenue contribution from auto? Is it too early to ask that question? But certainly starting to think about '22 and '23 numbers.

了不起。並對此進行快速跟進。正如我們所想的那樣——我不是在尋找 22 和 23 年的指導。但是當我們開始思考那些年時，我們應該如何看待汽車對收入的貢獻？問這個問題是否為時過早？但肯定會開始考慮 '22 和 '23 的數字。

Yes. Probably a bit early to ask that question with any specificity, Arvind. I mean, I think we believe that they will be meaningful -- we believe auto will be a meaningful contributor to our financials next year, but we don't have specifics on what exactly that means.

是的。 Arvind，具體地問這個問題可能有點早。我的意思是，我認為我們相信它們將是有意義的——我們相信汽車明年將對我們的財務做出有意義的貢獻，但我們沒有具體說明這意味著什麼。

And our next question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal。

I wanted to ask about guidance, and it seemed like the fourth quarter guidance came in well more than the Q3 beat. It almost feels as if there was a little -- maybe a pocket of little sort of lower performance in Q3, but it seems like you're building momentum into Q4. Can you kind of elaborate on what's giving you confidence to raise the guidance so much more than the beat in Q4?

我想詢問指導，似乎第四季度的指導遠遠超過了第三季度的表現。幾乎感覺好像有一點——也許是第三季度表現不佳的一小部分，但看起來你正在為第四季度建立動力。您能否詳細說明是什麼讓您有信心提高指導意見，而不是第四季度的節拍？

Ramsey, this is Sanjay. Yes -- oh, go ahead, Dave.

拉姆齊，這是桑傑。是的——哦，繼續，戴夫。

No. Go ahead, Sanjay.

不，去吧，桑傑。

Oh, sorry. Yes. Look, I would say is sort of something we said more generally over time that what's really driving our performance is improvement over time in the underlying models, and that doesn't happen in a smooth way. It sort of happens in fits and starts.

哦對不起。是的。看，我想說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們更普遍地說，真正推動我們的表現的是隨著時間的推移基礎模型的改進，而這並不是一帆風順的。它有點斷斷續續地發生。

And so if you look at where we've sort of focused our time in Q3, we've had some good wins. But frankly, there was a lot of effort and focus we put into areas like fraud mitigation, just because that became an interesting topic for us in Q3. But we see the progress we've made so far in the quarter and what we have remaining in the road map for this quarter, and I think we're very optimistic about it. So I think you see that play out in our guidance, and you'll see that play out in our revenue patterns over time as well.

因此，如果您看看我們在第三季度將時間集中在哪裡，我們已經取得了一些不錯的勝利。但坦率地說，我們在減少欺詐等領域投入了大量精力和精力，只是因為這在第三季度對我們來說是一個有趣的話題。但是我們看到了我們在本季度迄今為止取得的進展以及我們在本季度的路線圖中還剩下什麼，我認為我們對此非常樂觀。所以我認為你會在我們的指導中看到這一點，隨著時間的推移，你也會在我們的收入模式中看到這一點。

Okay. And could you give us more color or any detail on the fraud issue you faced? And is it contained? Is it ongoing? Should we expect any impact next quarter? Anything -- any details you could provide there would be helpful.

好的。您能否就您面臨的欺詐問題向我們提供更多信息或任何細節？它是否包含在內？是否正在進行？我們是否應該預計下個季度會受到影響？任何東西——你可以在那裡提供的任何細節都會有幫助。

Sure, Ramsey. This is Dave. So I mean, just to be clear, we sort of deal with fraud constantly and pretty much since the beginning. In the third quarter, we saw a pretty significant in that scale organized effort, which, in the end, didn't have any material financial impact on us, and we were able to successfully defend against it. But it did require us to put some resources against it. And we sort of came out of it with more defenses than we went into it, but -- so we just see this as -- by everything we can learn just a result of being a higher-profile company and something we can pretty much expect going forward. But in the end, it did not have a financial impact on us.

當然，拉姆齊。這是戴夫。所以我的意思是，為了清楚起見，我們從一開始就一直在處理欺詐行為。在第三季度，我們看到瞭如此大規模的有組織的努力，最終對我們沒有任何實質性的財務影響，我們能夠成功地抵禦它。但它確實需要我們投入一些資源來對付它。我們從它中走出來的防禦比我們進入它的要多，但是——所以我們只是把它看作——我們可以學到的一切都是成為一家知名度更高的公司的結果，而且我們幾乎可以期待往前走。但最終，它並沒有對我們產生財務影響。

And we just -- it's sort of, I guess, what we would just say an ongoing cost of doing business. And we're pretty happy that we have not suffered significant losses from fraud in our history and feel very good about where our fraud rates are and have been. So no, I don't think it's really anything worth thinking about or building into a model or anything else. It's really just part of naturally being a consumer-facing financial technology company.

我們只是 - 我想，這有點像我們所說的持續開展業務的成本。我們很高興我們在歷史上沒有因欺詐而遭受重大損失，並且對我們的欺詐率和過去的情況感到非常滿意。所以不，我認為這真的不值得考慮或構建模型或其他任何東西。這實際上只是自然成為面向消費者的金融技術公司的一部分。

And our next question comes from Mike Ng with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Mike Ng。

I just have 2. First, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the small-dollar loan product. How does that fit into the broader strategy? Does it help you accelerate market share gain within the personal loan market? Or do you see some other opportunity?

我只有兩個。首先，我只是想知道您是否可以多談談小額貸款產品。這如何融入更廣泛的戰略？它是否可以幫助您加快個人貸款市場的市場份額增長？還是你看到了其他機會？

And then second, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the loan sizes -- the average loan sizes in the quarter and how we should think about that going forward into 4Q and then into 2022.

其次，我只是想知道你是否可以談談貸款規模——本季度的平均貸款規模，以及我們應該如何考慮到第四季度和 2022 年的情況。

Sure, Mike. This is Dave. I'll cover the small-dollar question, and maybe Sanjay can speak to loan sizes. We just see it as an opportunity for a win across the board. And first of all, for consumers, it's just an area that is not particularly well served with an affordable product that's not exploitive of the consumer. So loans for a few hundred dollars for a few months are just -- it's just an area ripe with exploitation, and we can do it right. We can do it better in a way that's not exploitive, and it provides financing to a consumer for short term when they need it. And we can do it under the envelope that banks operate, meaning under the 36% rate limit and with much more affordable products that don't create debt cycles that are harmful to consumers.

當然，邁克。這是戴夫。我將討論小額美元的問題，也許桑傑可以談談貸款規模。我們只是將其視為全面獲勝的機會。首先，對於消費者來說，這只是一個沒有特別好用的價格實惠的產品服務的領域，它不會剝削消費者。所以幾個月幾百美元的貸款只是——這只是一個成熟的剝削領域，我們可以做對。我們可以以不剝削的方式做得更好，並在消費者需要時為他們提供短期融資。我們可以在銀行運營的範圍內做到這一點，這意味著在 36% 的利率限制下，並且使用更實惠的產品，不會造成對消費者有害的債務週期。

So first and foremost, it's a huge step forward for the consumer, which is very well aligned with Upstart's mission, and frankly, very central to it.

因此，首先，這對消費者來說是一個巨大的進步，這與 Upstart 的使命非常吻合，坦率地說，這是它的核心。

Secondly, banks themselves have a lot of pressure to better serve low- and moderate-income Americans. I mean, there's literally been messages sent from regulators to banks that they really need to better serve consumers with small-dollar loans for when immediate financing is needed. And most banks have just struggled to be able to do that in a reasonable and affordable and responsible manner. So it just isn't out there. But we've heard a ton from our bank partners and credit union partners about wanting to have a simple low-dollar product that can help them do the right thing by their customers. So it's a win there.

其次，銀行本身在更好地為中低收入美國人服務方面面臨很大壓力。我的意思是，監管機構確實向銀行發出了信息，他們確實需要在需要立即融資時通過小額貸款更好地為消費者服務。大多數銀行都在努力以合理、負擔得起和負責任的方式做到這一點。所以它只是不存在。但是我們從我們的銀行合作夥伴和信用合作社合作夥伴那裡聽到了很多關於希望擁有一種簡單的低價產品來幫助他們為客戶做正確的事情的消息。所以這是一場胜利。

And finally, for Upstart, it's a huge win for us as well. It's much less about direct profits on this product than it is about the ability to have our models learn much more quickly and to bring people who are at the margins that our models might not be able to approve today for a larger loan but could approve them for a much smaller loan. And that gets them to a path of being in the mainstream financial system more quickly, and it helps our model learn more quickly.

最後，對於 Upstart 來說，這對我們來說也是一個巨大的勝利。與其說這個產品的直接利潤，不如說它是關於讓我們的模型更快地學習的能力，並讓處於我們的模型今天可能無法批准但可以批准他們的邊緣的人獲得更大的貸款小得多的貸款。這讓他們更快地進入主流金融體系，並幫助我們的模型更快地學習。

And so suddenly down the road, one of our bank partners could offer them a car loan or a mortgage or some other product. And that, to us, is an enormous win if we can bring millions of people who are currently outside the mainstream bank-oriented financial system and bring it inside of it in a helpful way. And that's exactly what we want to do with a small-dollar product.

突然之間，我們的一個銀行合作夥伴可以為他們提供汽車貸款或抵押貸款或其他一些產品。對我們來說，如果我們能夠將目前處於主流銀行金融體系之外的數百萬人帶入並以一種有益的方式將其帶入其中，那麼這對我們來說是一個巨大的勝利。這正是我們想要用小美元產品做的事情。

I'll let Sanjay answer the question about loan sizes.

我會讓桑傑回答有關貸款規模的問題。

Sure. Michael. Yes. With respect to loan size, there's really maybe 2 main things going on: one of them is optical, and one of them is real. The optical one really has to do with the mix of our portfolio. In particular, as Dave described, more and more banks are eliminating their FICO guardrails. And what that is allowing us to do is go down the spectrum in terms of what we can originate and underwrite.

當然。邁克爾。是的。關於貸款規模，實際上可能有兩件主要事情發生：一件是光學的，一件是真實的。光學的確實與我們的產品組合有關。特別是，正如 Dave 所描述的，越來越多的銀行正在取消其 FICO 護欄。這讓我們能夠做的就是在我們可以發起和承保的範圍內降低範圍。

And as we do that, obviously, we're working with a borrower that is receiving smaller dollar sizes, just because they're at the riskier end of the spectrum. So as we do that, the sort of the mix of the portfolio is shifting. And so that's having an impact on average loan size. So that's something we would call optical.

當我們這樣做時，顯然，我們正在與一個獲得較小美元規模的借款人合作，只是因為他們處於風險較高的一端。因此，當我們這樣做時，投資組合的組合正在發生變化。所以這對平均貸款規模有影響。所以這就是我們所說的光學。

The real effect is that loan sizes in real terms have been coming down pretty consistently since pretty much the end of last spring, and that has been true pretty much through the end of this past quarter. And we attribute that -- or I guess we call that sort of suppressed loan demand that we largely attributed to the stimulus in the economy.

真正的影響是，自去年春季末以來，實際貸款規模一直在持續下降，到上個季度末一直如此。我們將其歸因於 - 或者我想我們稱之為抑制貸款需求，我們主要歸因於經濟刺激。

And so we don't have a crystal ball as to how this is going to propagate going forward, but I do think that -- as I called out in my remarks, I do think we are starting to see the signs in terms of the macro economy of a normalization in the economy with respect to savings rates, with respect to credit balances. And so if that is really accurate, what we would expect to see is a stabilization of loan size and then ultimately a gradual return to larger loan sizes as savings rates go down and credit balances come back up. So that is -- I wouldn't call that a prediction, that's maybe more of a thesis, but that's sort of where we stand right now with respect to loan size.

因此，對於這將如何傳播，我們沒有一個水晶球，但我確實認為——正如我在講話中所說的那樣，我確實認為我們開始看到就儲蓄率和信貸餘額而言，經濟正常化的宏觀經濟。因此，如果這真的準確，我們期望看到的是貸款規模穩定，然後隨著儲蓄率下降和信貸餘額回升，最終逐漸恢復到更大的貸款規模。所以那是 - 我不會稱之為預測，這可能更像是一個論點，但這就是我們目前在貸款規模方面的立場。

And our next question comes from John Hecht with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 John Hecht。

First one is just about the funnel. Maybe can you talk about kind of the channels and sources of new customers? I believe you had some good momentum in recurring customers coming directly to your site. So any comment or characteristics with the development of the mix on the front end?

第一個只是關於漏斗。能否談談新客戶的渠道和來源？我相信您在經常性客戶直接訪問您的網站方面有一些良好的勢頭。那麼前端混合開發的任何評論或特徵？

John, we had very fast growth, and I would generally say it was across all our channels. So it wasn't channel-specific, which we view as a good thing. For certain, having some of our banks drop FICO score suddenly means they're partners sending us traffic that they wouldn't have sent us before. That doesn't always convert as much, so there's effects like that.

約翰，我們的增長非常快，我通常會說這是在我們所有的渠道中。所以它不是特定於渠道的，我們認為這是一件好事。可以肯定的是，讓我們的一些銀行突然降低 FICO 分數意味著他們是合作夥伴向我們發送他們以前不會發送給我們的流量。這並不總是轉換得那麼多，所以會有這樣的效果。

But generally speaking, the partner traffic has been great. We've seen great progress in digital, without question growing quickly in repeat loans or kind of life cycle marketing, which is what we call it internally. So there's a lot of those dynamics. Direct mail continues to be a very productive channel for us.

但總的來說，合作夥伴流量一直很大。我們已經看到了數字化方面的巨大進步，毫無疑問，在重複貸款或生命週期營銷方面迅速增長，這就是我們內部所說的。所以有很多這樣的動態。直郵對我們來說仍然是一個非常有效的渠道。

So when our funnel gets better and our aperture of who we can lend to or who our bank partners are lending to gets better, then it just typically goes across channel. And that is definitely what we've seen is cross-channel improvements.

因此，當我們的渠道變得更好並且我們可以藉給誰或我們的銀行合作夥伴可以藉給誰的情況變得更好時，它通常會跨越渠道。這絕對是我們所看到的跨渠道改進。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe talk about the investor side. I know there's been a dramatic -- at a global scale, an increase in investor demand. Is that still the case in terms of kind of capital allocation? And then maybe any commentary on the pipeline of banks and credit unions that we should expect over the near term?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許談談投資者方面。我知道在全球範圍內，投資者需求出現了戲劇性的增長。就資本配置而言，情況仍然如此嗎？然後也許對我們在短期內應該期待的銀行和信用合作社管道的任何評論？

Sure. Maybe I can start with the...

當然。也許我可以從...開始

Maybe I'll just give a high level...

也許我會給出一個高水平...

Go ahead, Dave.

去吧，戴夫。

Sorry, Sanjay. Maybe I'll just do the high level first. As I think, John, we have a lot of banks who are originating loans for their own balance sheets. We have some banks that are selling through to 100-plus, 150-plus capital markets partners, and that creates this very liquid environment that we work in.

對不起，桑傑。也許我會先做高水平。約翰，我認為，我們有很多銀行為自己的資產負債表發放貸款。我們有一些銀行正在向 100 多個、150 多個資本市場合作夥伴進行銷售，這創造了我們工作的這種非常流動的環境。

I'll just speak maybe to the bank side. I mean, we definitely have very rapidly growing interest from bank partners for some of the reasons we've said in the past, which is banks tend to be very heavy in deposits and light in loans, and that's an environment that works really well for us. I would say we just continue to see increased interest. Our ability to get banks onto our platform quickly has definitely improved. We -- I've mentioned in my remarks, we got a bank partner on in less than 50 days, which is a new record for us.

我可能會和銀行那邊談談。我的意思是，由於我們過去說過的一些原因，銀行合作夥伴的興趣肯定在迅速增長，那就是銀行的存款往往很重，貸款很少，這是一個非常適合的環境我們。我想說我們只是繼續看到興趣增加。我們讓銀行快速進入我們平台的能力明顯提高了。我們——我在講話中提到，我們在不到 50 天的時間內就找到了一個銀行合作夥伴，這對我們來說是一個新的記錄。

So the demand is there. I think the confidence in our models from the bank partners is there. The returns for the banks have actually been excessive, meaning higher than they would have expected on loans, principally because the macro environment has really suppressed default rates for us, probably like a lot of others. So that -- the banking side is very, very strong, and we feel very confident we're going to continue to add banks and credit union partners at a rapid clip.

所以需求就在那裡。我認為銀行合作夥伴對我們的模型充滿信心。銀行的回報實際上是過高的，這意味著高於他們對貸款的預期，主要是因為宏觀環境確實抑制了我們的違約率，可能就像許多其他人一樣。所以 - 銀行方面非常非常強大，我們非常有信心我們將繼續快速增加銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴。

And maybe Sanjay can speak to the investor side.

也許桑傑可以和投資者談談。

Sure. Yes. Thanks, Dave. Yes. What I'd say for those loans that flow through the banks and into the capital markets, I would maybe point out a short-term dynamic and maybe a longer-term or more secular one.

當然。是的。謝謝，戴夫。是的。對於那些通過銀行流入資本市場的貸款，我想說的是，我可能會指出一種短期動態，也可能是一種長期或更長期的動態。

The short-term dynamic, as you know, is like loss rates are naturally low right now, in our opinion. And the ABS markets, I believe, I would call them highly constructive. And of course, there's a lot of capital right now chasing yield. And the combination of those 3 things has made it such that there is a lot of demand for loans out there. We think that will change and normalize.

如您所知，短期動態就像我們認為現在的損失率自然很低。而 ABS 市場，我相信，我會稱它們為高度建設性的。當然，現在有很多資本在追逐收益。這三件事的結合使得那裡有很多貸款需求。我們認為這將改變並正常化。

I think the things that we think about in the more medium to long term which are important to us are 2. One, I do believe, over this period of time, this sort of whole category of digital personal loans has really, I think, gained a lot of credibility as a legitimate source of yield. And you're starting to see institutions that are much more conservative and traditional coming to the space. And so I think there's been an increasing acceptance into the mainstream of investment finance on the credit side.

我認為我們在中長期考慮的對我們來說很重要的事情是 2。一個，我相信，在這段時間裡，這種全類別的數字個人貸款確實，我認為，作為合法的收益來源獲得了很高的信譽。你開始看到更加保守和傳統的機構進入這個領域。因此，我認為信貸方面的投資融資主流越來越被接受。

And then the second more important one is, how do we look within that? And I think that Upstart continues to have a lot of credibility for the performance of the credit and our ability to underwrite the risk in a way that I think differentiates itself from other products in the market. So we think the combination of those couple of things will be such that even when we're past the current, let's call it, sort of distortion in the market, we'll be in pretty good shape with respect to demand.

然後第二個更重要的是，我們如何看待它？而且我認為，Upstart 在信貸表現和我們承擔風險的能力方面仍然具有很高的可信度，我認為這種方式與市場上的其他產品不同。因此，我們認為這幾件事的結合將使得即使我們已經過去了，我們稱之為市場扭曲，我們在需求方面將處於相當好的狀態。

And our next question comes from Nat Schindler with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Nat Schindler。

Yes. I just want to talk a little bit about what you guys mentioned about longer term about how you could use your platform on other loan types. Obviously, personal loans and auto loans are sold into the ABS markets. If you were better than -- you can prove you're better than FICO, great. You're going to get a premium on that, and you're going to be able to sell your loans better and that you can get funded well. But when you mentioned things like homes and mortgages basically sold entirely into GSEs, how could your system work in that world where Fannie Mae is basically deciding who gets a mortgage?

是的。我只想談談你們提到的關於如何在其他貸款類型上使用您的平台的長期內容。顯然，個人貸款和汽車貸款被出售到 ABS 市場。如果你比——你可以證明你比 FICO 更好，那太好了。您將獲得溢價，您將能夠更好地出售您的貸款，並且您可以獲得充足的資金。但是當您提到房屋和抵押貸款基本上完全出售給 GSE 時，您的系統如何在房利美基本上決定誰獲得抵押貸款的世界中運作？

Nat, this is Dave. It's a good question. And let's just say mortgages are funded in lots of ways, first of all. And some are qualifying. Some are not qualifying. The GSEs rules can change over time, so there's just a lot of -- there's a lot of ways this market could go.

納特，這是戴夫。這是個好問題。首先，讓我們假設抵押貸款以多種方式獲得資金。有些是合格的。有些沒有資格。 GSE 規則會隨著時間而改變，所以這個市場有很多——有很多方法可以去。

But having said that, if people don't have access to a reasonably priced mortgage today at all, we certainly think there's an opportunity to serve them better. And again, whether funding is from bank balance sheets, whether it's from securitization markets, whether it's from GSEs or whether it's some combination of those things, it's certainly something we'll look at over time. But we feel very confident, given what we do and who we are, that better underwriting somebody who wouldn't otherwise fit easily into a qualifying mortgage using the models that most mortgage originators use today, there's a very large number of people who aren't well served by that market. And we think we can, together with our bank partners, build a better product, and that's what we expect to do.

但是話雖如此，如果人們今天根本無法獲得價格合理的抵押貸款，我們當然認為有機會為他們提供更好的服務。再說一次，資金是否來自銀行資產負債表，是否來自證券化市場，是否來自 GSE 或是否是這些東西的某種組合，隨著時間的推移，這肯定是我們會關注的。但我們感到非常有信心，考慮到我們所做的事情和我們是誰，使用大多數抵押貸款發起人今天使用的模型更好地承保那些本來不容易適應合格抵押貸款的人，有很多人不是該市場不能很好地服務。我們認為我們可以與銀行合作夥伴一起打造更好的產品，這也是我們期望做的。

And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand it back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我現在想把它交還給我們的發言人，以供補充或結束髮言。

I just want to say thank you to everybody. It's been a great quarter for us and a great year since the IPO. We are really excited about what we've done but even more excited about what's in front of us. I think we've tried to lay out some of the framework of where we're going, but we feel the company has never been stronger and never more excited about our prospects and what we can do in the financial services industry in the years to come.

我只想對大家說聲謝謝。自首次公開募股以來，這對我們來說是一個偉大的季度，也是偉大的一年。我們對我們所做的事情感到非常興奮，但對我們面前的事情更加興奮。我認為我們已經嘗試制定一些我們前進的框架，但我們覺得公司從未像現在這樣強大，也從未對我們的前景以及我們在金融服務行業可以做的事情感到興奮。來。

So thanks all for joining us this quarter, and we'll see you in a few months.

因此，感謝大家在本季度加入我們，我們將在幾個月後見到您。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。