Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Upstart Q1 Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Upstart 2022 財年第一季度財報電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jason Schmidt, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Jason Schmidt。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's first quarter 2022 financial results. With us on today's call are Dave Girouard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 Upstart 2022 年第一季度的財務業績。 Upstart 的首席執行官 Dave Girouard 與我們一起參加今天的電話會議；和我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Datta。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2022 financial results and published an Investor Relations presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.upstart.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天市場收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了其 2022 年第一季度的財務業績，並發布了一份投資者關係報告。兩者都可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.upstart.com 上找到。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance for the second quarter and full year 2022 related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today, and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如與我們的業務相關的第二季度和 2022 年全年的指導以及我們未來擴展平台的計劃。這些陳述基於我們目前的預期和截至今天可用的信息，並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。由於我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。因此，我們告誡您不要過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，除非法律要求。

In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables. (Operator Instructions)

此外，在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則對我們結果的引用作為非公認會計原則財務指標提供，並與我們的公認會計原則結果相一致，可在收益發布和補充表格中找到。 （操作員說明）

Later this quarter, Upstart will be participating in Barclays Emerging Payments and Fintech Forum on May 16; Citi Beyond the Basics Conference, May 24; BofA Securities Global Technology Conference, June 8; and Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference, June 14. We will also be holding our Annual Stockholders Meeting on May 17.

本季度晚些時候，Upstart 將於 5 月 16 日參加巴克萊新興支付和金融科技論壇；花旗超越基礎會議，5 月 24 日；美國銀行證券全球技術會議，6 月 8 日；摩根士丹利技術、媒體和電信會議，6 月 14 日。我們還將在 5 月 17 日舉行年度股東大會。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

現在我想把它交給 Upstart 的首席執行官 Dave Girouard。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our first quarter 2022 results. I'm Dave Girouard, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart. I'm pleased to say we're off to a great start in 2022. The Upstart team just delivered our seventh consecutive profitable quarter and our fourth straight quarter with triple-digit year-on-year revenue growth. As the recognized innovator in AI lending, we continue to expand our leadership position in personal lending and are now off and running in our auto lending product as well.

大家下午好。感謝您參加我們關於 2022 年第一季度業績的財報電話會議。我是 Upstart 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Dave Girouard。我很高興地說，我們在 2022 年有了一個良好的開端。Upstart 團隊剛剛實現了連續第七個盈利季度和連續第四個季度實現三位數的同比收入增長。作為人工智能貸款領域公認的創新者，我們繼續擴大我們在個人貸款領域的領導地位，現在我們的汽車貸款產品也開始運作。

Despite the macro headwinds that appeared over the first quarter, we saw loan transactions of more than $4.5 billion, a record for the Upstart platform and perhaps for the industry as a whole. At the same time, we added a huge number of lenders and car dealerships during Q1. Today, we have more than 500 dealerships on Upstart as well as 57 banks and credit unions, which is up from 42 when I last updated you in February. At this point, we're adding about a lender per week. This is real progress, considering we had just 10 lenders on the platform when Upstart IPO-ed in December 2020.

儘管第一季度出現了宏觀逆風，但我們看到超過 45 億美元的貸款交易，創下了 Upstart 平台甚至整個行業的記錄。與此同時，我們在第一季度增加了大量的貸方和汽車經銷商。今天，我們在 Upstart 上擁有 500 多家經銷商以及 57 家銀行和信用合作社，比我上次在 2 月份更新時的 42 家有所增加。在這一點上，我們每週增加一個貸方。這是真正的進步，考慮到在 2020 年 12 月 Upstart 首次公開募股時，我們平台上只有 10 家貸方。

Additionally, we now have 11 lenders with no minimum FICO score in their credit policies, up from 7 the last time we spoke. I'm confident that our momentum and pipeline for both dealerships and lenders has never been stronger.

此外，我們現在有 11 家貸方在其信用政策中沒有最低 FICO 分數，而我們上次發言時為 7 家。我相信，我們為經銷商和貸方提供的動力和渠道從未如此強大。

We continue to make rapid progress with our auto refinance product as well. In the first quarter, we transacted more than 11,000 auto refi loans on our platform, almost twice as many as we did in all of 2021. We also launched our first AI model for auto refi that is partially trained by our own auto lending performance data. This kicks off the process of building and deploying increasingly accurate versions of our model, which is our primary source of competitive advantage in the market. In Q1, we also more than doubled the rate of instant approvals for auto refi applicants, another major step toward increasing funnel throughput and delivering a differentiated product experience.

我們的汽車再融資產品也繼續取得快速進展。第一季度，我們在我們的平台上交易了超過 11,000 筆汽車再融資貸款，幾乎是 2021 年全年的兩倍。我們還推出了我們的第一個汽車再融資 AI 模型，該模型部分由我們自己的汽車貸款績效數據訓練.這啟動了構建和部署越來越準確的模型版本的過程，這是我們在市場上競爭優勢的主要來源。在第一季度，我們還將汽車 refi 申請人的即時批准率提高了一倍以上，這是朝著提高渠道吞吐量和提供差異化產品體驗的又一重要步驟。

Of course, in the recent weeks and months, it's become apparent that 2022 is shaping up to be a challenging one for the economy and for the financial services industry in particular. In my remarks in our February earnings call, I mentioned that the Omicron variant, the clear signs of inflation and the Fed's plans to counter it and the market rotation out of high-growth technology. Since then, it's become clearer just how aggressive the Fed will be with interest rates in order to combat a level of inflation that we haven't seen in decades. The 2-year treasury note, which is the most relevant industry benchmark for our business, has risen more than 200 basis points since October. And of course, the war in the Ukraine and the zero-COVID policy in China have only increased the risks and uncertainties facing the global economy.

當然，在最近幾周和幾個月裡，很明顯，2022 年對經濟尤其是金融服務行業來說將是充滿挑戰的一年。在我在 2 月份的財報電話會議上的講話中，我提到了 Omicron 變體、通脹的明顯跡像以及美聯儲的應對計劃以及高增長技術的市場輪動。從那時起，美聯儲將在利率方面採取何種激進措施以對抗我們幾十年未見的通脹水平變得更加清晰。 2 年期國庫券是與我們業務最相關的行業基準，自 10 月以來已上漲 200 多個基點。當然，烏克蘭戰爭和中國的零新冠政策只會增加全球經濟面臨的風險和不確定性。

As I said in February, lending is a cyclical industry and always will be. So we expect volume and pricing in our platform to vary accordingly. As a result of increased risk in the economy as well as the corresponding higher returns demanded by banks and credit investors, the average loan pricing on our platform has increased more than 300 basis points since October. In addition to increasing rates for approved borrowers, this also has the effect of lowering approval rates for applicants on the margin. Given the hawkish signals from the Fed, we anticipate prices will move even higher later this year, which will have the effect of reducing our transaction volume, all else being equal.

正如我在二月份所說，貸款是一個週期性行業，而且永遠都是。因此，我們預計我們平台的數量和價格會相應變化。由於經濟風險增加以及銀行和信貸投資者相應的更高回報要求，我們平台上的平均貸款定價自 10 月以來已上漲 300 多個基點。除了提高獲批借款人的利率外，這還會降低邊際申請人的批准率。鑑於美聯儲發出的鷹派信號，我們預計今年晚些時候價格將進一步走高，這將減少我們的交易量，而其他條件不變。

But if you've been following Upstart for a while, you know that we've been through several disruptions in our industry over the years, and each time, Upstart gained market share and emerged a stronger company. When the economy gets turbulent and nimbleness is at a premium, the advantages of a founder-led company with a closely knit and tenured leadership team become apparent. And that's what you have in Upstart: 3 founders involved in the business day in and day out and a proven leadership team, half of which have been with Upstart almost since inception.

但是，如果您已經關注 Upstart 一段時間，您就會知道這些年來我們的行業經歷了幾次顛覆，每次，Upstart 都獲得了市場份額並成為了一家更強大的公司。當經濟變得動盪並且敏捷變得非常重要時，由創始人領導的公司擁有一個緊密結合和終身任職的領導團隊的優勢變得顯而易見。這就是你在 Upstart 中所擁有的：3 位創始人日復一日地參與到業務中，以及一個久經考驗的領導團隊，其中一半幾乎從 Upstart 成立以來就一直在工作。

I'm proud of how Upstart performed in the last 2 years, particularly during an economic cycle with no precedent. In the worst year of the pandemic, 2020, Upstart grew revenue 42% and generated a modest profit. And of course, our growth rate and our profits since then have been extraordinary by any measure. Even in this challenging environment in 2022, our guidance for full year revenue implies a growth rate of 47% over 2021, and we expect to be cash flow-positive.

我為 Upstart 在過去 2 年的表現感到自豪，特別是在沒有先例的經濟周期中。在大流行最嚴重的一年，即 2020 年，Upstart 的收入增長了 42%，並產生了微薄的利潤。當然，從那時起，我們的增長率和利潤從任何方面來看都是非同尋常的。即使在 2022 年這個充滿挑戰的環境中，我們對全年收入的指導也意味著 2021 年的增長率為 47%，我們預計現金流為正。

With respect to credit performance, we're pleased how our models performed on behalf of our lenders during this tumultuous period. While not perfect, our model significantly outperformed traditional FICO-based risk models and learned quickly while doing so. For Upstart loans originated and funded by our banks and credit union partners, we saw significant overperformance since the beginning of COVID, which has normalized to on-target performance in recent months. There has been no meaningful underperformance of returns with any of our more than 50 lending partners since the program's inception in 2018 despite significant periods of economic disruption.

關於信貸表現，我們很高興我們的模型在這個動盪時期代表我們的貸方表現如何。雖然並不完美，但我們的模型明顯優於傳統的基於 FICO 的風險模型，並且在此過程中快速學習。對於由我們的銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴發起和資助的 Upstart 貸款，自 COVID 開始以來，我們看到了顯著的超額表現，最近幾個月該表現已正常化為目標表現。自該計劃於 2018 年啟動以來，我們的 50 多個貸款合作夥伴中的任何一個都沒有出現明顯的回報表現不佳，儘管經歷了重大的經濟動盪時期。

For loans funded by institutions in capital markets, we've observed more volatility, which is natural given the broader risk aperture. The unprecedented level of government stimulus caused the majority of these post-COVID vintages to overperform significantly. The abrupt termination of these stimulus programs has caused some of the more recent vintages to underperform. And finally, we're confident that our models are currently well calibrated to the latest consumer credit conditions, performing in line with expectations and are more accurate than at any time in our history.

對於由資本市場機構提供資金的貸款，我們觀察到波動性更大，考慮到更大的風險敞口，這是很自然的。史無前例的政府刺激措施導致這些後 COVID 年份中的大多數表現顯著超額。這些刺激計劃的突然終止導致一些最近的年份表現不佳。最後，我們相信我們的模型目前已根據最新的消費者信用狀況進行了很好的校準，表現符合預期，並且比我們歷史上的任何時候都更加準確。

Let's turn now to our new product efforts. One of our most important initiatives for 2022 is the accelerated rollout of our auto retail product. Since acquiring Prodigy in April of 2021, we expanded our dealership footprint from about 100 rooftops at the time of the acquisition to more than 500 today, making Upstart one of the fastest-growing auto retail software in the industry. Upstart's active dealership footprint over the last 90 days spans 35 different OEMs, including Toyota, Subaru and VW. At this point, we're also well into Phase 2, which is the introduction of Upstart-powered loans into our auto retail software. This represents the next critical good step in modernizing the car buying experience.

現在讓我們轉向我們的新產品工作。我們 2022 年最重要的舉措之一是加速推出我們的汽車零售產品。自 2021 年 4 月收購 Prodigy 以來，我們的經銷商足跡從收購時的約 100 個屋頂擴大到今天的 500 多個，使 Upstart 成為業內增長最快的汽車零售軟件之一。 Upstart 在過去 90 天內的活躍經銷商足跡跨越 35 家不同的 OEM，包括豐田、斯巴魯和大眾。在這一點上，我們也進入了第二階段，即將Upstart驅動的貸款引入我們的汽車零售軟件。這代表了汽車購買體驗現代化的下一個關鍵好步驟。

Without question, our early progress in delivering loans through our retail software has exceeded our most optimistic expectations. While lending has enabled in just a handful of dealerships in California, the uptake and win rate for the loan product, technically termed a retail installment contract, has been far better than anticipated. Our auto teams are working quickly to smooth some of the product edges, filling in a few missing features and completing integrations with various legacy dealer systems, all in the interest of moving toward a broad-based rollout. Our goal has enabled lending in a few dozen dealerships in 4 states this quarter, representing about 25% of the U.S. population, followed by a full nationwide rollout in Q3.

毫無疑問，我們通過零售軟件提供貸款的早期進展超出了我們最樂觀的預期。雖然貸款僅在加利福尼亞的少數經銷商中啟用，但該貸款產品（技術上稱為零售分期付款合同）的採用率和贏率遠好於預期。我們的汽車團隊正在迅速努力以平滑一些產品優勢，填補一些缺失的功能並完成與各種傳統經銷商系統的集成，所有這些都是為了實現廣泛的推廣。我們的目標是本季度在 4 個州的幾十家經銷商處提供貸款，約占美國人口的 25%，隨後在第三季度在全國范圍內全面推廣。

Based on what we now know, we expect the auto retail lending business to contribute meaningfully to Upstart's monthly transaction volumes by the end of the year, setting us up for a significant ramp in 2023. As I've said before, auto retail is perhaps the largest of all buy now, pay later markets. So this is one of the most exciting developments in Upstart's history. You should feel confident that we have a lot of executive attention on getting it right.

根據我們現在所知道的，我們預計汽車零售貸款業務將在年底前對 Upstart 的月交易量做出有意義的貢獻，從而為我們在 2023 年實現顯著增長做好準備。正如我之前所說，汽車零售可能是最大的現在購買，以後市場支付。因此，這是 Upstart 歷史上最激動人心的發展之一。您應該確信我們有很多執行人員的注意力來正確處理它。

I'm also pleased to share that we began publicly testing our Small Dollar loan product in the past few weeks. I first mentioned this to you in our earnings call last November. It's designed to help consumers with unexpected and immediate cash needs, think a few hundred dollars repaid in just a few months. But it's also important to remember that we're building a bank-ready product at bank-friendly APRs, always operating within the 36% rate cap prescribed to nationally chartered banks and to those who serve U.S. military service members. This is a strategic initiative to our mission to improve access to credit, and we believe it will accelerate the pace at which we can bring more and more marginalized Americans into the mainstream banking system.

我也很高興地分享我們在過去幾週開始公開測試我們的小額貸款產品。我在去年 11 月的財報電話會議上首次向您提到了這一點。它旨在幫助有意外和即時現金需求的消費者，想想在短短幾個月內償還幾百美元。但同樣重要的是要記住，我們正在以銀行友好的 APR 構建銀行就緒產品，始終在為國家特許銀行和為美國軍人服務的人規定的 36% 利率上限內運營。這是我們改善信貸獲取使命的一項戰略舉措，我們相信它將加快我們將越來越多的邊緣化美國人帶入主流銀行體系的步伐。

What I told you in November that we aim to launch the Small Dollar loan before the end of 2022, our Small Dollar team set an aggressive goal to launch the product by the end of Q1, and I'm pleased to report that they achieved this ambitious goal. Of course, we still have lots of work to do to realize the opportunity in Small Dollar lending, but the team's ambition is inspiring.

我在 11 月告訴過您，我們的目標是在 2022 年底之前推出 Small Dollar 貸款，我們的 Small Dollar 團隊設定了一個積極的目標，即在第一季度末推出該產品，我很高興地報告他們實現了這一目標雄心勃勃的目標。當然，要實現Small Dollar借貸的機會，我們還有很多工作要做，但團隊的雄心壯志是鼓舞人心的。

Additionally, I'm happy to share that our small business lending team is likewise making impressive progress and is aiming to have their product in the market within a few months. The first version of our SMB pricing model will include more than 500 variables about both the applicant and the business. It will also feature our loan month modeling framework, which is one of the most impactful innovations added to our personal loan product a few years back. Our initial testing suggests that version 1 of our SMB model will deliver higher accuracy, as measured by Area Under the Curve, or AUC, than peer models that have been in the market for years. We'll begin to cautiously test this new product in the second half of the year.

此外，我很高興地分享我們的小企業貸款團隊同樣取得了令人矚目的進展，併計劃在幾個月內將他們的產品推向市場。我們的 SMB 定價模型的第一個版本將包含 500 多個關於申請人和企業的變量。它還將採用我們的貸款月份建模框架，這是幾年前添加到我們個人貸款產品中的最具影響力的創新之一。我們的初步測試表明，我們的 SMB 模型的第 1 版將提供更高的準確度，以曲線下面積 (AUC) 衡量，比市場上已有多年的同行模型。我們將在下半年開始謹慎測試這款新產品。

I'm excited about our SMB product for 2 reasons. First, business lending is central to far more banks than is consumer lending. So our bank partners are ready and waiting for this. And second, despite the interest banks have in business lending, the FDIC data suggests that 77% of large banks and almost 90% of small banks have no online application process whatsoever. We're also hard at work on some fundamental upgrades to the infrastructure that underpins our AI models and how we develop them.

我對我們的 SMB 產品感到興奮有兩個原因。首先，商業貸款對更多銀行的關注遠多於消費貸款。因此，我們的銀行合作夥伴已準備好等待這一點。其次，儘管銀行對商業貸款有興趣，但 FDIC 的數據表明，77% 的大型銀行和近 90% 的小型銀行沒有任何在線申請流程。我們還在努力對支撐我們的人工智能模型以及我們如何開發它們的基礎設施進行一些根本性的升級。

It's important to realize that the surface area over which we're implementing AI has expanded dramatically. First, we're now working on 7 or 8 unique models that target different aspects of credit targeting and origination. And we're implementing these different models across 5 different credit products as of now. Second, the amount and types of data used to train our models has grown exponentially and will continue to do so. As such, the time and processing power required to retrain our models has similarly increased.

重要的是要意識到我們實施人工智能的表面積已經急劇擴大。首先，我們現在正在研究 7 或 8 個獨特的模型，它們針對信用目標和來源的不同方面。截至目前，我們正在 5 種不同的信貸產品中實施這些不同的模型。其次，用於訓練我們模型的數據量和類型呈指數級增長，並將繼續增長。因此，重新訓練我們的模型所需的時間和處理能力也同樣增加了。

So naturally, the opportunity to improve the infrastructure we use to build, train and deploy AI models is enormous. In an effort broadly referred to internally as Machine Learning to Heaven, or ML2H, we're working to dramatically upgrade this infrastructure. Our goals with ML2H are to allow hundreds of research scientists to seamlessly and securely build new models and add data to existing models, train and test them in an automated fashion, and deploy them across the entire model ecosystem simultaneously. The system we're working toward will provide maximum leverage to our research scientists, productizing and automating how new models are trained, tested and deployed.

因此，改進我們用於構建、訓練和部署 AI 模型的基礎設施的機會自然是巨大的。在內部廣泛稱為機器學習到天堂或 ML2H 的努力中，我們正在努力大幅升級此基礎架構。我們對 ML2H 的目標是讓數百名研究科學家能夠無縫、安全地構建新模型並將數據添加到現有模型中，以自動化方式訓練和測試它們，並同時在整個模型生態系統中部署它們。我們正在努力開發的系統將為我們的研究科學家提供最大的影響力，使新模型的訓練、測試和部署方式產品化和自動化。

Another important area we're investigating is the means by which our AI models include assumptions about the macro economy. While our models have long considered the current macro context at the time a loan is priced, we've consistently said that we aren't and don't aim to be macro forecasters, and yet macro events will always have some degree of impact on the performance of Upstart-powered loans. So given our product is designed to target a particular return to lending partners, that implies there's always some view of the macro future inherent in our models.

我們正在研究的另一個重要領域是我們的 AI 模型如何包含有關宏觀經濟的假設。雖然我們的模型長期以來一直考慮貸款定價時的當前宏觀背景，但我們一直表示，我們不是也不打算成為宏觀預測者，但宏觀事件總是會對新貴貸款的表現。因此，鑑於我們的產品旨在針對貸款合作夥伴的特定回報，這意味著我們的模型中始終存在對宏觀未來的一些看法。

Given this reality, we intend for our product to explicitly share the macro adjustments that are embedded in the models, and furthermore, to allow our partners to put their own macro assumptions. This will provide significantly more transparency to our lending partners and will also put our focus squarely on risk ranking, which is the heart of what makes Upstart's models unique.

鑑於這一現實，我們打算讓我們的產品明確共享模型中嵌入的宏觀調整，此外，允許我們的合作夥伴提出自己的宏觀假設。這將為我們的貸款合作夥伴提供更大的透明度，並將我們的重點直接放在風險排名上，這是使 Upstart 模型與眾不同的核心。

A few weeks back, we celebrated Upstart's 10th anniversary. It was a wonderful opportunity to remember all we've been through, to stop for a moment to reflect on how we got where we are today and to show the gratitude that I feel for all those who have been part of that journey: our employees, past and present; our investors and partners; and of course, our friends and families that made this all possible. Some of the old timers, the OG Upstarters, if you will, shared some of their favorite moments in Upstart history. We talked about the street curve we sat on from lunch each day in our Palo Alto office because we had no better place to gather.

幾週前，我們慶祝了 Upstart 成立 10 週年。這是一個很好的機會來記住我們所經歷的一切，停下來思考一下我們是如何走到今天的，並表達我對所有參與這一旅程的人的感激之情：我們的員工， 過去和現在;我們的投資者和合作夥伴；當然，我們的朋友和家人讓這一切成為可能。一些老前輩，OG Upstarters，如果你願意的話，分享了他們在 Upstart 歷史中最喜歡的一些時刻。我們每天都在帕洛阿爾托辦公室談論我們從午餐後坐在的街道曲線，因為我們沒有更好的聚會場所。

When I had the chance to speak to the team, I told them that I'm not particularly adept at celebrating the past. It's just not me. I'm far too excited about and paranoid about the future to spend too much time toasting to our success in the past. As we shifted towards talking about the future, I told our team we need to act with urgency today with a healthy dose of paranoia. We're a company grounded in reality with our eyes wide open as to the evolving risks we see in the industry and in the world. And at the same time, we have to pair this urgency about the present with optimism and absolute determination about the future.

當我有機會與團隊交談時，我告訴他們我並不特別擅長慶祝過去。只是不是我。我對未來過於興奮和偏執，無法花太多時間為我們過去的成功乾杯。當我們轉向談論未來時，我告訴我們的團隊，我們今天需要以健康的偏執狂採取緊急行動。我們是一家立足於現實的公司，我們睜大眼睛看待我們在行業和世界上看到的不斷變化的風險。同時，我們必須將這種對現在的緊迫感與對未來的樂觀和絕對決心結合起來。

Fortunately, most of our leadership team has been here. So we know the drill and are confident that we can navigate whatever 2022 and beyond might hold. And we know we can blame that urgency for today with the optimistic eye on the horizon because although we serve a cyclical industry, we represent a secular change that the financial services industry desperately needs. Artificial intelligence will reshape the economics of lending in ways that will reverberate for decades. We're today pursuing opportunities that represent more than $6 trillion in annual origination. So there's little question about the scale of the addressable market. We see a clear path to building a company with more than $10 billion in revenue in the coming years and are maniacally focused on achieving that goal.

幸運的是，我們的大多數領導團隊都在這裡。因此，我們知道演習，並且有信心我們可以駕馭 2022 年及以後可能發生的任何事情。我們知道，我們可以用樂觀的眼光來指責今天的緊迫性，因為儘管我們服務於週期性行業，但我們代表了金融服務行業迫切需要的長期變化。人工智能將以影響數十年的方式重塑借貸經濟學。今天，我們正在尋求每年創造超過 6 萬億美元的機會。因此，目標市場的規模幾乎沒有問題。我們看到了一條清晰的道路，可以在未來幾年建立一家收入超過 100 億美元的公司，並且瘋狂地專注於實現這一目標。

Thank you. And now I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q1 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

謝謝你。現在我想把它交給我們的首席財務官 Sanjay 來介紹我們的第一季度財務業績和指導。桑傑？

Thank you, Dave, and thanks to everyone for being with us today. Just to quickly call out the key financial trends before diving into the more detailed numbers. On the top line, origination volumes and revenue from fees were both slightly up from last quarter, which was encouraging given the seasonal drop we typically see in Q1. Profitability was ahead of guidance but as anticipated, down sequentially from last quarter, partly due to the ramp of auto lending.

謝謝你，戴夫，也感謝今天和我們在一起的每一個人。只是為了在深入了解更詳細的數字之前快速找出關鍵的財務趨勢。最重要的是，發起量和費用收入均比上一季度略有上升，鑑於我們通常在第一季度看到的季節性下降，這是令人鼓舞的。盈利能力高於預期，但正如預期的那樣，比上一季度環比下降，部分原因是汽車貸款的增加。

We've continued to deploy our balance sheet assertively in the service of R&D in both auto lending and new segments of personal lending as well as using it to smooth fluctuations in funding of corporate loans. And as Dave outlined, the macro environment has become an increasing headwind to growth this past quarter with both rising interest rates and rising consumer delinquencies putting downward pressure on conversion.

我們繼續堅定地部署我們的資產負債表，為汽車貸款和個人貸款新領域的研發服務，並利用它來平滑公司貸款資金的波動。正如戴夫所概述的那樣，隨著利率上升和消費者拖欠率上升，宏觀環境已成為過去一個季度增長的一個越來越大的阻力，這給轉換帶來了下行壓力。

With these dynamics in mind, here now is a summary of our numbers. Net revenues in Q1 came in at $310 million, up 156% year-over-year. Revenue from fees constituted $314 million of that amount, representing 101% of overall revenue and up 9% sequentially from last quarter. Net interest income was a negative component of net revenue this quarter as the loan assets on our balance sheet which we mark-to-market each quarter, sustained declines in valuation due to the rising interest rate environment.

考慮到這些動態，現在這裡是我們數字的摘要。第一季度的淨收入為 3.1 億美元，同比增長 156%。其中費用收入為 3.14 億美元，佔總收入的 101%，比上一季度環比增長 9%。淨利息收入是本季度淨收入的一個負數，因為我們每季度按市值計價的資產負債表上的貸款資產，由於利率環境上升，估值持續下降。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q1 was approximately 465,000 loans, up 174% year-over-year and representing over 350,000 new borrowers. Average loan size was up 18% over last quarter, an indication for us that fundamental loan demand from borrowers is back on the rise after being suppressed for more than a year due to government stimulus.

第一季度我們平台上的貸款交易量約為 465,000 筆貸款，同比增長 174%，代表超過 350,000 名新借款人。平均貸款規模比上一季度增長 18%，這表明借款人的基本貸款需求在政府刺激措施抑制了一年多之後又開始回升。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing, declined from 52% in Q4 to 47% in Q1, a level which was nonetheless 100 basis points above guidance. Our declining contribution margin was almost entirely a function of the expected ramp in auto lending, which remains contribution-negative at this early stage. Without the effect of auto loans, our contribution margin for personal lending would have clocked in at a robust 51%.

我們的邊際貢獻率是一個非公認會計準則指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的可變成本，從第四季度的 52% 下降到第一季度的 47%，但這一水平仍高於指導水平 100 個基點.我們下降的邊際貢獻幾乎完全是汽車貸款預期增長的函數，在這個早期階段仍然是負貢獻。如果沒有汽車貸款的影響，我們個人貸款的邊際貢獻將保持在 51% 的強勁水平。

Operating expenses were $275 million in Q1, growing 13% sequentially over Q4. Sales and marketing and customer operations spend, both typically viewed as variable costs, each outgrew revenue this quarter at 16% and 18% Q-on-Q, respectively, due to the additional onus of acquiring and onboarding auto loans. Engineering and product development grew 8% sequentially due to slower hiring than targeted and remains our priority area of investment. Growth in general and administrative spend grew 3% sequentially.

第一季度的運營費用為 2.75 億美元，比第四季度環比增長 13%。由於獲得和加入汽車貸款的額外責任，銷售、營銷和客戶運營支出（通常都被視為可變成本）本季度的收入環比增長分別為 16% 和 18%。由於招聘速度低於目標，工程和產品開發環比增長 8%，並且仍然是我們的優先投資領域。一般支出和行政支出環比增長 3%。

Taken together, these components resulted in Q1 GAAP net income of $32.7 million, up 224% year-on-year and above our guidance, but down 44% sequentially from Q4. Similarly, adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance at $62.6 million and grew 198% year-on-year, but slid 31% quarter-over-quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 was $0.61 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 95.5 million.

總而言之，這些因素導致第一季度 GAAP 淨收入為 3270 萬美元，同比增長 224%，高於我們的預期，但比第四季度下降 44%。同樣，調整後的 EBITDA 超出預期，達到 6260 萬美元，同比增長 198%，但環比下滑 31%。根據 9550 萬股的稀釋加權平均股數，第一季度調整後的每股收益為 0.61 美元。

We ended the quarter with $1 billion in restricted and unrestricted cash, down from $1.2 billion at the end of last year as more of our capital base flowed into loan assets in support of R&D programs, primarily in auto refi and some newer segments of personal loans. Additionally, we have started to selectively use our capital as a funding buffer for core personal loans in periods of interest rate fluctuation where the market clearing price is in flux. Our balance of loans, notes and residuals at the end of the quarter was consequently up to $604 million from $261 million in Q4.

我們在本季度末有 10 億美元的受限制和不受限制的現金，低於去年年底的 12 億美元，因為我們更多的資本基礎流入貸款資產以支持研發計劃，主要是汽車再融資和一些較新的個人貸款領域.此外，我們已開始有選擇地將我們的資金用作核心個人貸款的資金緩衝，以便在市場清算價格不斷變化的利率波動期間。因此，我們在本季度末的貸款、票據和殘差餘額從第四季度的 2.61 億美元增至 6.04 億美元。

Since our prior earnings release, the level of uncertainty in the macro environment has continued to grow. After remaining at historically low levels for the past 18 months, loan default rates rose quite abruptly towards the end of last year and are now back to, or in some cases, above pre-pandemic levels. This is a dynamic we have observed consistently across the full breadth of our portfolio although one which appears to be disproportionately impacting higher-risk tiers, which are generally composed of borrowers who one might assume have a greater exposure to loss of government stimulus.

自我們上次發布財報以來，宏觀環境的不確定性水平持續上升。在過去 18 個月保持在歷史低位之後，貸款違約率在去年底時突然上升，現在已經回到或在某些情況下高於大流行前的水平。這是我們在整個投資組合中一直觀察到的一種動態，儘管這種動態似乎對高風險層產生了不成比例的影響，這些層通常由借款人組成，人們可能認為這些借款人可能會遭受政府刺激措施的損失更大。

As a way to keep investors abreast of such credit trends, we have introduced new information in our investor materials, which shows in aggregate for all historical vintages the in-period loan defaults compared to the aggregate defaults that were predicted across those vintages at the time of their origination. The drop and subsequent reversal in developed trend that is shown on the chart are in our view a function of the injection and subsequent waning of the government stimulus. And as a consequence, virtually all of our pre-2021 vintages will substantially outperform their return targets while the 2 or 3 vintages most adjacent to the reversal in trend at the end of 2021 are set to underperform.

作為讓投資者了解此類信貸趨勢的一種方式，我們在投資者材料中引入了新信息，這些信息匯總顯示了所有歷史年份的期內貸款違約與當時這些年份預測的違約總額相比他們的起源。我們認為，圖表上顯示的發達趨勢的下降和隨後的逆轉是政府刺激措施注入和隨後減弱的函數。因此，我們幾乎所有 2021 年前的年份都將大大超過其回報目標，而最接近 2021 年底趨勢逆轉的 2 或 3 個年份的表現將低於預期。

Separately, interest rates have continued to climb in response to inflation signals and Fed tightening. The combination of inflation and monetary tightening imply the nontrivial risk of a recession potentially later this year. Given the general macro uncertainties and the emerging prospects of a recession later this year, we have deemed it prudent to reflect a higher degree of conservatism in our forward expectations.

另外，利率繼續攀升以應對通脹信號和美聯儲收緊政策。通貨膨脹和貨幣緊縮的結合意味著今年晚些時候可能出現經濟衰退的重大風險。鑑於普遍的宏觀不確定性和今年晚些時候出現的衰退前景，我們認為謹慎的做法是在我們的前瞻性預期中反映更高程度的保守主義。

With this as context, for Q2 of 2022, we are expecting revenues of $295 million to $305 million, representing year-over-year growth rate of 55% at the midpoint; contribution margin of approximately 45%; net income of negative $4 million to [$0] million; and adjusted net income of $28 million to 30 million; adjusted EBITDA of $32 million to $34 million; and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 96.2 million shares.

以此為背景，我們預計 2022 年第二季度的收入為 2.95 億美元至 3.05 億美元，中點同比增長率為 55%；貢獻率約為 45%；淨收入為負 400 萬美元至 [0] 萬美元；調整後的淨收入為 2800 萬美元至 3000 萬美元；調整後的 EBITDA 為 3200 萬美元至 3400 萬美元；稀釋後的加權平均股數約為 9620 萬股。

For the full year 2022, we now expect revenue of approximately $1.25 billion, representing a growth rate of approximately 47% from the prior year, down from $1.4 billion guided last quarter; contribution margin of approximately 48%; adjusted EBITDA of approximately 15%.

對於 2022 年全年，我們現在預計收入約為 12.5 億美元，較上年增長約 47%，低於上一季度指導的 14 億美元；貢獻率約為 48%；調整後 EBITDA 約為 15%。

Thanks once again to everyone at Upstart who is working hard to move our mission forward. And with that, Dave and I are now happy to open the call to any questions. Operator, back to you.

再次感謝 Upstart 的每一個人，他們正在努力推進我們的使命。有了這個，戴夫和我現在很高興打開電話詢問任何問題。接線員，還給你。

(Operator Instructions) We take our first question from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們從巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal 提出第一個問題。

My first question is on the conversion rate. It came in a little lower than our model. And Sanjay, I know you mentioned that some higher delinquency rates might have -- might be putting some pressure there. So I guess, first in quarter, maybe talk about the sort of puts and takes with the conversion rate. And then also, what should we be expecting as we move forward throughout the year?

我的第一個問題是關於轉化率。它比我們的模型低一點。還有桑傑，我知道你提到過一些更高的拖欠率可能會——可能會給那裡帶來一些壓力。所以我想，在第一季度，可能會談論轉換率的那種看跌期權。然後，隨著我們全年前進，我們應該期待什麼？

Ramsey, this is Sanjay. Yes, thanks for the question. I think it's related what we just described, which is 2 things: the rates -- the interest rates in the economy go up, and consequently, referrals for banks and for institutional buyers go up. And similarly, as we've talked about, between roughly November and February, delinquencies in the economy reverted as well. They have been unnaturally low for about 18 months. And with the sort of the waning of the government stimulus, in our view, those trends have reversed. And those 2 things result in higher rates, interest rates quoted to consumers, and that results in lower conversion. So I think that's the totality of the story.

拉姆齊，這是桑傑。是的，謝謝你的提問。我認為這與我們剛剛描述的內容有關，即兩件事：利率——經濟中的利率上升，因此，銀行和機構買家的推薦率上升。同樣，正如我們所談到的，大約在 11 月至 2 月期間，經濟拖欠情況也有所恢復。大約 18 個月以來，它們一直處於異常低的水平。在我們看來，隨著政府刺激措施的減弱，這些趨勢已經逆轉。這兩件事會導致更高的利率、向消費者報價的利率，從而導致轉化率降低。所以我認為這就是故事的全部內容。

How that plays out for the rest of the year, I think, is a function of those 2 things. We view the reversal in the delinquency trends to be stable now and has been stable for about 60 days in our view. There is the -- as I said, there's the prospect of higher rate hikes or, I guess, higher interest rates. To now at the end of the year, there is a risk of something like a recession as inflation plays out and as the Fed continues to tighten. And so those 2 things could present further risk to the conversion rates. But I guess it would sort of depend on your view of how the macro environment will evolve for the rest of the year.

我認為，這在今年剩下的時間裡會如何發揮作用，是這兩件事的作用。我們認為拖欠趨勢的逆轉現在是穩定的，並且在我們看來已經穩定了大約 60 天。有——正如我所說，有更高加息的前景，或者，我猜，更高的利率。到今年年底為止，隨著通脹的加劇和美聯儲繼續收緊政策，可能會出現類似衰退的風險。因此，這兩件事可能會給轉化率帶來進一步的風險。但我想這在某種程度上取決於你對今年剩餘時間宏觀環境將如何演變的看法。

Fair enough. I also wanted to ask you about the ABS side of your business. You mentioned that you'd seen some dislocation that sort of worked its way back to something more normal. I guess, talk about the demand environment for your loans as we stand today. And then also maybe clarify whether you foresee needing to incur any kind of residual liabilities or any other kind of handholding measures and get -- in order to get those transactions kind of consummated or whether you think the environment is not really going to demand that as we move forward.

很公平。我還想問您有關您業務的 ABS 方面的問題。你提到你已經看到了一些錯位，這種錯位可以恢復到更正常的狀態。我想，談談我們今天的貸款需求環境。然後還可以澄清您是否預見需要承擔任何類型的剩餘負債或任何其他類型的手持措施並獲得 - 為了使這些交易能夠完成，或者您是否認為環境不會真正要求這樣做我們繼續前進。

Yes. Sure. So the broader picture on loan demand, as you know, there's a variety of different channels by which the loans get funded. I think that the loans that are getting funded through bank balance sheets or credit union balance sheets, I would say, is among the more resilient because they have a cost of funds from their deposits that tends to be a little bit insulated from the way that the yield curves are moving the economy. And then we have buyers that are a part of the institutional world that are buying and holding on balance sheet. And I would say those are a little bit more exposed to interest rate movements in the economy but still somewhat resilient. And then there is the amount of the loans that are getting from those buyers sent to the ABS markets, and that's a fraction that has changed historically as a result of how constructive the ABS markets have been.

是的。當然。因此，如您所知，從更廣泛的貸款需求來看，有多種不同的渠道可以為貸款提供資金。我認為通過銀行資產負債表或信用合作社資產負債表獲得資金的貸款，我會說，是更有彈性的，因為它們的存款資金成本往往與收益率曲線正在推動經濟。然後我們的買家是機構世界的一部分，他們正在購買並持有資產負債表。我想說的是，它們更容易受到經濟中利率變動的影響，但仍然具有一定的彈性。然後是從這些買家那裡獲得的貸款金額發送到 ABS 市場，這是由於 ABS 市場的建設性而在歷史上發生變化的一小部分。

Obviously, the ABS markets in 2021 were historically constructive. So you could make a very healthy gain by purchasing a loan and selling it into the ABS world. And so a lot of that activity happened. That opportunity, as rates have tightened and this cost of funding has gone up, is far less today. And so the amount of product getting sent to the ABS markets is a lot less in 2022 than it was in 2021.

顯然，2021 年的 ABS 市場在歷史上具有建設性。因此，您可以通過購買貸款並將其出售給 ABS 世界來獲得非常可觀的收益。所以發生了很多這樣的活動。隨著利率收緊和融資成本上升，這種機會在今天要少得多。因此，與 2021 年相比，2022 年進入 ABS 市場的產品數量要少得多。

But I don't think that really changes our equation with respect to how we participate in the ABS markets. We've always been a little bit at arm's length in the sense that it's not our balance sheet that's contributing meaningfully to those ABS deals. It is loan buyers and investors and other institutions that are making the decision to contribute or not. And we don't really retain any residual risk in those deals, and it's not a plan to do so going forward.

但我認為這並不會真正改變我們參與 ABS 市場的方式。從某種意義上說，對這些 ABS 交易做出有意義貢獻的不是我們的資產負債表，因此我們一直保持一定的距離。是貸款購買者、投資者和其他機構決定是否捐款。而且我們在這些交易中並沒有真正保留任何剩餘風險，而且未來也沒有這樣做的計劃。

We take our next question from Pete Christiansen with Citi.

我們從花旗的 Pete Christiansen 那裡得到下一個問題。

Dave, Sanjay, I was just hoping you can elaborate a little bit on that last comment Sanjay, made about. I guess, credit trends seem to be stable over the last 60 days. If you look at some of the rollovers on delinquencies, I guess there's some concern that you could trigger some of the ABS C&L thresholds. Just wondering if there's a concern there at some point. And could this impact your ability to attract funding? Then just my second question, Sanjay, you mentioned you've upped the balance sheet risk here a little bit. How far are you willing to go in terms of supporting new loans and putting warehouse liabilities on the balance sheet?

戴夫，桑傑，我只是希望你能詳細說明桑傑最後的評論。我猜，過去 60 天的信貸趨勢似乎很穩定。如果您查看一些關於拖欠的翻轉，我想您可能會擔心您可能會觸發一些 ABS C&L 閾值。只是想知道在某些時候是否有問題。這會影響您吸引資金的能力嗎？然後就是我的第二個問題，桑傑，你提到你已經稍微提高了資產負債表的風險。在支持新貸款和將倉庫負債納入資產負債表方面，您願意走多遠？

Yes. Pete, thanks for the question. This is Sanjay. Let's see. Your first question is about pattern of delinquencies and ABS triggers. The delinquencies just sort of in absolute level, as I said, sort of they renormalized to pre-pandemic levels fairly abruptly starting in October and November. I think that pattern stabilized in sort of roughly February. To us, March and April were very stable months.

是的。皮特，謝謝你的問題。這是桑傑。讓我們來看看。您的第一個問題是關於拖欠和 ABS 觸發器的模式。正如我所說，拖欠只是絕對水平，從 10 月和 11 月開始，它們相當突然地重新恢復到大流行前的水平。我認為這種模式大約在 2 月份穩定下來。對我們來說，三月和四月是非常穩定的月份。

The question of triggers on ABS deals, so it's a somewhat technical thing. But what will breach triggers on an ABS deal aren't the sort of in-period delinquencies, but it's the charge-offs from delinquencies of prior months. And we've done some modeling on that. I think that with respect to our large ABS deals, I don't think there's much concern of breaching triggers. We do some smaller monthly sort of pass-through issuance. And there is a possibility that those triggers will be breached.

ABS交易的觸發問題，所以這是一個有點技術性的事情。但是，違反 ABS 交易的觸發因素不是期內拖欠，而是前幾個月拖欠的沖銷。我們已經對此進行了一些建模。我認為，就我們的大型 ABS 交易而言，我不認為有太多違反觸發因素的擔憂。我們每月進行一些較小的傳遞發行。並且這些觸發器有可能被破壞。

That's a somewhat technical thing. It basically means that the resid holders are locked out of cash flows for a couple of months while the bondholders get replenished, and then the cash flows begin to flow again. So it would impact their returns. And it's not something that rises to the level of seriousness of us worrying about ability to traffic those deals. And I think it's sort of a temporary technical thing that will cause some interruption of cash flows between bondholders and residual holders.

這是一個有點技術性的事情。這基本上意味著，當債券持有人得到補充時，殘渣持有人在幾個月內被鎖定在現金流之外，然後現金流再次開始流動。所以這會影響他們的回報。這並不是讓我們擔心交易這些交易的能力的嚴重程度。而且我認為這是一種臨時的技術問題，會導致債券持有人和剩餘持有人之間的現金流出現一些中斷。

So -- and then your second question is how we plan to use our balance sheet. And as I said, I mean, historically, our balance sheet has been almost exclusively for the purpose of R&D. We have used our balance sheet in the last quarter to do what I call sort of a market-clearing mechanism. And by that, what I mean is when interest rates in the economy change quite quickly, I think it would be fair to say that our platform, its ability to react to the new market-clearing price, it's probably not as nimble as we would like. It's somewhat manual. It requires a bunch of conversations and phone calls.

所以 - 然後你的第二個問題是我們計劃如何使用我們的資產負債表。正如我所說，我的意思是，從歷史上看，我們的資產負債表幾乎完全用於研發。我們在上個季度使用我們的資產負債表來執行我所說的市場清算機制。我的意思是，當經濟中的利率變化很快時，我認為可以公平地說，我們的平台，它對新的市場清算價格做出反應的能力，它可能不像我們那樣靈活像。這有點手動。它需要大量的對話和電話。

And so when interest rates smooth and investors are -- so each deciding what their new return hurdles are, there can be a gap or a delay in responding to funding. And that's a situation where we've chosen to sort of step in with our balance sheet and almost sort of bridge to the new market-clearing price. And if that is happening often and abruptly, we've been sort of playing that role with our balance sheet.

因此，當利率平穩且投資者——因此每個人都在決定他們的新回報障礙是什麼時，對資金的回應可能會出現缺口或延遲。在這種情況下，我們選擇介入我們的資產負債表，幾乎是通向新的市場清算價格的橋樑。如果這種情況經常突然發生，我們在資產負債表中一直扮演著這個角色。

I don't view that to be a long-term or necessarily sizable activity for us. I think that developing the mechanisms to respond more nimbly to new price discovery as rates change is something that's on our road map, and something that we want to start to invest in so that it can happen in a much more automated way. At the end of the day, we view our platform as being a platform that responds to risk and rates in the environment. And so the faster we can do that, the faster we'll be able to deliver the new returns in any given scenario to the investors and not have to bridge it with their own balance sheet. So I kind of -- I would view it through that lens.

我不認為這對我們來說是一項長期的或必然相當大的活動。我認為開發機制以在利率變化時更靈活地響應新的價格發現是我們路線圖上的事情，也是我們希望開始投資的事情，以便它可以以更加自動化的方式發生。歸根結底，我們將我們的平台視為對環境中的風險和利率做出反應的平台。因此，我們越快做到這一點，我們就能越快地在任何給定情況下為投資者提供新的回報，而不必將其與他們自己的資產負債表聯繫起來。所以我有點——我會通過那個鏡頭來看待它。

Next question from Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

大西洋股票的西蒙克林奇的下一個問題。

So I just wanted to -- in terms of your guidance for the year, you're explicitly, I believe, building in a recession scenario late in the year. So I was wondering if you could help us just sort of bridge the gap to sort of what's changed in terms of the mix of your loans. You talked about before having embedded $1.5 billion of auto loans for the year. What's changed there? What's changed on the personal loan side? And then I have a follow-up just probably on the last points you were just making.

所以我只是想 - 就你今年的指導而言，我相信你明確地在今年晚些時候建立了衰退情景。因此，我想知道您是否可以幫助我們縮小差距，以解決您的貸款組合方面的變化。您在本年度嵌入 15 億美元的汽車貸款之前談到了這一點。那裡有什麼變化？個人貸款方面發生了什麼變化？然後我可能會跟進你剛剛提出的最後幾點。

Sure. This is Dave. I might actually jump in, at least once here. Yes. I mean, I think it's actually fairly simple. We expect less volume than we would have a few months ago based on pricing in the marketplace being higher, and that's a function of both underlying base rates being higher as well as the risk in the environment and the risk premium that either lenders or investors are demanding. So you put that all together, and it's been an increase in sort of average rate to the consumer of several hundred basis points.

當然。這是戴夫。我實際上可能會跳進去，至少在這裡一次。是的。我的意思是，我認為這實際上相當簡單。基於市場定價較高，我們預計交易量將低於幾個月前，這是基礎基準利率較高以及環境風險和貸方或投資者風險溢價的函數要求很高。所以你把這些放在一起，對消費者來說，平均利率增加了幾百個基點。

And I think we've always said, we're not, in some sense, a terribly interest rate-sensitive thing. And we've kind of said interest rate changes of 50 or 100 basis points are something that could well be offset by improvements to our platform. But in this case, it's much more significant than that. And of course, in the last few months, we've seen -- and it is probably 300 basis points or higher. And so that's what's giving us our guidance for the rest of the year.

而且我認為我們一直在說，在某種意義上，我們不是一個對利率非常敏感的東西。我們已經說過 50 或 100 個基點的利率變化很可能被我們平台的改進所抵消。但在這種情況下，它比這更重要。當然，在過去的幾個月裡，我們已經看到了——可能是 300 個基點或更高。這就是我們在今年餘下時間為我們提供指導的原因。

We aren't -- we're not -- in no way predicting a recession or anything like that. It's not really our job to try to do that. We're just reflecting the prevailing rates in the marketplace and the loan transactions that, that typically translates to, and that's what you're seeing there.

我們不是——我們不是——絕不會預測經濟衰退或類似的事情。嘗試這樣做並不是我們的工作。我們只是反映市場上的現行利率和通常轉化為的貸款交易，這就是您在那裡看到的。

Okay. And just to follow-on on the last point. I'm kind of surprised to hear that you're using your balance sheet to put some loans on there, which aren't just for R&D purposes. And it strikes me as it's just not a normal course of business for you given you're a platform business. So I was just wondering what kind of message that might send to your bank partners or to others in the system. Just curious about that.

好的。並且只是跟進最後一點。聽到你用你的資產負債表放一些貸款，我有點驚訝，這不僅僅是為了研發目的。這讓我感到震驚，因為這對你來說不是正常的業務過程，因為你是一個平台業務。所以我只是想知道什麼樣的消息可能會發送給您的銀行合作夥伴或系統中的其他人。只是對此感到好奇。

Look, I think it's -- Sanjay kind of explained this. Generally, we view ourselves as a marketplace where ultimately, price discovery happens and loans are funded or not funded when they make sense by our bank partners or by capital markets, institutional investors, et cetera. Some of this works very fluidly, particularly on the bank and the credit union side, where they have very direct controls to change their return hurdles, et cetera. We don't have those mechanisms in place as well on the other side. It's more of a manual process.

聽著，我認為是—— Sanjay 解釋了這一點。一般而言，我們將自己視為一個市場，最終會發生價格發現，並在我們的銀行合作夥伴或資本市場、機構投資者等合理的情況下為貸款提供資金或不提供資金。其中一些工作非常流暢，特別是在銀行和信用合作社方面，他們可以非常直接地控制來改變他們的回報障礙等等。另一方面，我們也沒有這些機制。這更像是一個手動過程。

So when something changes as quickly as it did in interest rates and the risk premiums in the market changed very rapidly, then we step in to sort of bridge that. But it's sort of a temporary thing. And as Sanjay said, it is an intention of ours to make the system more automated and more fluid so we don't have any need to do that. It's not part of our business to hold loans generate net interest income from loans in our balance sheet, but we certainly want to make sure there's fluidity in the system. And we're definitely going to do some more work so we can do that without any of our balance sheet participation in that.

因此，當某些事情的變化與利率一樣快並且市場上的風險溢價變化非常迅速時，我們就會介入以彌補這一點。但這是一種暫時的事情。正如 Sanjay 所說，我們的目的是使系統更加自動化和更加流暢，因此我們沒有任何需要這樣做。持有貸款在我們的資產負債表中產生淨利息收入不是我們業務的一部分，但我們當然希望確保系統中的流動性。我們肯定會做更多的工作，這樣我們就可以在沒有任何資產負債表參與的情況下做到這一點。

And Simon, just to maybe put the numbers into context, but I think the amount of the total platform loans that ended up on our balance sheet this quarter was still a single-digit percentage. And of that amount, probably close to 3/4 of it is still -- was still R&D-style spending on predominantly auto loans and other new products and segments. So it was still a relative minority or a relatively small percentage, but it is just sort of an important new thing that we haven't been doing in prior quarters just because of the fluidity of the environment.

還有西蒙，也許只是把這些數字放在上下文中，但我認為本季度最終出現在我們資產負債表上的平台貸款總額仍然是個位數的百分比。在這一數額中，可能接近 3/4 仍然——仍然是主要用於汽車貸款和其他新產品和細分市場的研發式支出。所以它仍然是相對少數或相對較小的百分比，但這只是一個重要的新事物，我們在前幾個季度沒有做，只是因為環境的流動性。

We take our next question from Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

我們從 JMP 證券公司的 Andrew Boone 那裡得到下一個問題。

As we think about rising interest rates that you're offering, can you just help us understand the spread between what consumers are replacing, right? So if I think about credit card rates going up and other credit products also rising, are you guys implying that the spread between what is being refinanced is just broadening out and widening? And can you help me understand that?

當我們考慮你提供的利率上升時，你能不能幫助我們了解消費者正在取代的東西之間的差異，對嗎？因此，如果我認為信用卡利率上升，其他信貸產品也在上升，你們是否暗示正在再融資的貸款之間的利差正在擴大和擴大？你能幫我理解嗎？

And then secondly, as we think about auto refinancing, there are clearly some headwinds going on there with auto prices coming down, rates coming higher. How are you thinking about the auto refi business for 2022? Can you just double-click on that?

其次，當我們考慮汽車再融資時，顯然存在一些不利因素，汽車價格下降，利率上升。您如何看待 2022 年的汽車改裝業務？你可以雙擊它嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Andrew. On the first question, I mean it's actually fairly straightforward. And it's not even as -- you don't have to think as deep as like what a person might be refinancing through an Upstart-powered loan. It's really as simple as when the consumer rates go up, that means on the margin, a whole bunch of people that would have been approved are no longer approved. So there's a whole bunch of just loans that never happened at all. And there's a bunch of people that are still approved, but the interest rate is a few percentage points higher, and a certain fraction of them are going to decide that's not the product that they want. They don't need it. It's -- in many, many cases, it's a discretionary loan where they're buying something or paying off something that they don't necessarily have to.

當然。謝謝，安德魯。關於第一個問題，我的意思是它實際上相當簡單。而且它甚至不像 - 你不必像一個人可能通過新貴提供的貸款進行再融資那樣深入思考。就像消費率上升一樣簡單，這意味著在邊際上，一大群本來會被批准的人不再被批准。所以有一大堆從未發生過的公正貸款。還有很多人仍然被批准，但利率要高幾個百分點，他們中的一部分人會認為這不是他們想要的產品。他們不需要它。這是 - 在許多情況下，這是一種可自由支配的貸款，他們在其中購買或償還他們不一定需要的東西。

So there's a fair degree of price sensitivity. And just put those together, when average rates go up, you're going to see less volume. When average rates go down, you're going to see more volume. There's a lot of things we're, of course, doing in the mix of that to make the funnel more efficient and more performant. But all else being equal, of course, if rates go up, those are the effects that you're seeing there.

所以有相當程度的價格敏感度。把這些放在一起，當平均利率上升時，你會看到更少的交易量。當平均利率下降時，你會看到更多的交易量。當然，我們正在做很多事情，以使漏斗更高效、更高效。但是，當然，如果利率上升，那麼所有其他條件都相同，這就是您在那裡看到的影響。

On auto refi, I would just say there's a lot in flux because it is a new product and because it's also a refi product, meaning it has interest rate sensitivity to it. So a little hard to judge how those things will balance over the course of the year. And that's kind of -- it's a new product for us. We don't have as much history as we do in personal lending. But certainly, again, it's an interest rate-sensitive product, so that works against us. But we're also making some pretty rapid progress in terms of automating, people refinancing loans, getting much more focused on digital signatures away from wet signatures, et cetera, et cetera. So there has been some really good progress there, but how those will trade off over the course of the year is just a little hard to predict right now.

關於汽車再融資，我只想說有很多變化，因為它是一種新產品，因為它也是一種再融資產品，這意味著它對利率很敏感。所以有點難以判斷這些事情在一年中將如何平衡。這就是——它對我們來說是一種新產品。我們沒有像個人借貸那樣多的歷史。但可以肯定的是，它又是一種對利率敏感的產品，因此對我們不利。但我們也在自動化方面取得了相當快的進展，人們為貸款再融資，更加關注數字簽名，遠離濕簽名等等。所以那裡已經取得了一些非常好的進展，但是這些在一年中將如何權衡現在只是有點難以預測。

We take our next question from Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vincent Caintic 和 Stephens。

I appreciate all the products you're rolling out and the talk about the addressable market, but I guess the biggest investor worries on the funding side and not having the funding to fuel your origination volume. So 2 parts question. So first on that balance sheet, $600 million. Understanding it's not supposed to be a long-term thing, but if you can maybe size what your appetite is. And I guess my understanding was that only loans that were approved by the funding partners were to be originated. So I'm just wondering what's different there.

我感謝您推出的所有產品以及有關潛在市場的討論，但我猜最大的投資者擔心資金方面的問題，並且沒有資金來推動您的發行量。所以兩部分的問題。所以首先在資產負債表上，6億美元。理解它不應該是一個長期的事情，但如果你可以確定你的胃口是什麼。我想我的理解是，只有獲得資助夥伴批准的貸款才能發放。所以我只是想知道那裡有什麼不同。

And then secondly, if you can talk about kind of the funding partnership. So how is interest? That -- I saw that you had 15 new bank partners this quarter. So if you could talk about that. And then the forward flow agreements, if you could talk about your conversations with your institutional investors.

其次，如果你能談談資金夥伴關係的類型。那麼利息怎麼算？那——我看到你本季度有 15 個新的銀行合作夥伴。所以，如果你能談談。然後是正向流動協議，如果你可以談談你與機構投資者的對話。

Yes. Sure. Maybe I'll start off on the institutional side. I don't think we have a specific target or number in line with respect to how we're managing our balance sheet. I mean it's sort of an ongoing trade-off between wanting to spend those dollars in R&D and new products to sort of incubate new models and calibrate new models versus buffering the core business through interest rate shocks while we're waiting or sort of investing, making the platform sort of more nimble to reacting to finding those market-clearing rates. And how we balance the 2 is, I would say, a bit of a fluid equation. So I don't think we have an easy heuristic on how we would prioritize the 2.

是的。當然。也許我會從制度方面開始。我認為我們沒有具體的目標或數字來管理我們的資產負債表。我的意思是，在希望將這些資金用於研發和新產品以孵化新模型和校準新模型與在我們等待或進行投資時通過利率衝擊緩衝核心業務之間，這是一種持續的權衡，使平台對尋找那些市場清算率的反應更加靈活。我想說，我們如何平衡 2 有點像流體方程。所以我認為我們對於如何優先考慮 2 並沒有一個簡單的啟發式方法。

But certainly, in Q1 with all the volatility we saw, even though I would say that the majority of our balance sheet spending was still of the R&D flavor, just making sure that the core business was stable, continue to be an important component for us. And I don't know, Dave, do you want to talk a little bit about the lending partners side?

但可以肯定的是，在我們看到的所有波動的第一季度，儘管我會說我們的資產負債表支出的大部分仍然是研發的味道，只是確保核心業務穩定，繼續成為我們的重要組成部分.我不知道，戴夫，你想談談貸款合作夥伴方面嗎？

Yes. We actually had a phenomenal quarter, significantly our best ever in terms of signing up new lending partners and deploying them as well. So doing exceptionally well, particularly with credit unions. So I think both in terms of what we signed up and deployed onto the platform as well as what our current pipeline looks like has never been stronger. So we're extremely pleased with the progress we made. We're adding about 1 lender every week. And I think there's certainly an opportunity to accelerate from there. So lender adoption has certainly been a highlight.

是的。實際上，我們有一個非凡的季度，在簽約新的貸款合作夥伴和部署它們方面，這是我們有史以來最好的一個季度。所以做得非常好，尤其是與信用合作社。因此，我認為無論是我們在平台上註冊和部署的內容，還是我們當前的管道看起來都從未如此強大。所以我們對我們取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們每週增加大約 1 個貸方。我認為肯定有機會從那裡加速。因此，貸款人的採用肯定是一個亮點。

Okay. And just a follow-up question on the guidance. So the revenue adjustment to your guide, is that all transaction volume? Or is there any change to assumptions to your take rate? And if you wouldn't mind, if you do kind of have an assumption for your transaction volume, that would be helpful.

好的。只是關於指導的後續問題。那麼對您的指南的收入調整，是所有的交易量嗎？或者對您的錄取率的假設是否有任何變化？如果您不介意，如果您確實對交易量有某種假設，那將很有幫助。

Volume? But -- I think I would say the entire difference is transaction revenue-related. We don't have any explicit assumptions on balance sheet for any -- of that nature.

體積？但是 - 我想我會說整個差異與交易收入有關。對於這種性質，我們對資產負債表沒有任何明確的假設。

We move to Mike Ng with Goldman Sachs.

我們搬到高盛的 Mike Ng。

So I just had a follow-up on the revenue outlook change. It sounds like it was mostly driven by a lower origination outlook due to lower demand from rising rates. I just wanted to see if you're seeing any change in the lending parameters or shrinking of the credit box due to what's happening on the funding side.

所以我只是對收入前景的變化進行了跟進。聽起來這主要是由於利率上升帶來的需求下降導致的較低的起源前景。我只是想看看您是否看到由於資金方面發生的事情而導致貸款參數發生任何變化或信用箱縮小。

Mike, this is Dave. No, I don't think there's any significant change in that regard. I would say, generally, most -- on the banks and credit union side, there's been very little move in any direction. And I would say in some cases, they've raised target returns a bit, but I think it's just at the margin. So largely, that side of the house has not changed significantly. It's really on the other side where expectations of investors and -- et cetera, has gone up in terms of return targets. So no, it's not really any real change with respect to the credit box of the various lenders.

邁克，這是戴夫。不，我認為這方面沒有任何重大變化。我會說，一般來說，大多數——在銀行和信用合作社方面，在任何方向上都沒有什麼進展。我會說在某些情況下，他們已經提高了目標回報率，但我認為這只是在邊際。因此，在很大程度上，房子的那一側並沒有發生太大變化。在回報目標方面，投資者的期望和其他方面確實有所上升。所以不，就各個貸方的信用箱而言，這並不是真正的變化。

Okay. Great. And I just wanted to follow up on some of the discussion around the loans on the balance sheet. What's your assumption for where that goes for the rest of the year? Do you plan to simply allow those to mature? Are you going to kind of sell them into the market when you have the opportunity? Just any thoughts there would be great.

好的。偉大的。我只是想跟進有關資產負債表上貸款的一些討論。您對今年剩餘時間的去向有何假設？你打算簡單地讓那些成熟嗎？當你有機會的時候，你打算把它們賣到市場上嗎？只要有任何想法都會很棒。

I would say those are being held as held-for-sale loans. Obviously, it will be a function of what that secondary market looks like. And we'll make an economic decision on them, but I think the preference would be to get liquidity and get cash back on the balance sheet rather than to hold the loans and earn interest income.

我會說這些是作為持有待售貸款持有的。顯然，這將取決於二級市場的外觀。我們將對它們做出經濟決定，但我認為更傾向於獲得流動性並在資產負債表上取回現金，而不是持有貸款並賺取利息收入。

We take our next question from David Chiaverini with Wedbush Securities.

我們從 Wedbush Securities 的 David Chiaverini 那裡得到下一個問題。

I wanted to ask about the recent change to your loan modification policy in which you made it easier for Upstart borrowers to obtain forbearance and these delinquent borrowers would be considered current on their loans. Can you discuss why you made this change? And are delinquent borrowers automatically entered into the forbearance program? Or do they have to opt into it?

我想問一下您最近對貸款修改政策的更改，其中您使 Upstart 借款人更容易獲得寬容，這些拖欠借款人將被視為當前貸款。你能談談你為什麼做出這個改變嗎？拖欠借款人是否會自動進入寬容計劃？還是他們必須選擇加入？

This is Sanjay. Yes. So on loan modifications, I guess a simple way to describe it is -- and even independent of the macro environment, we had -- certainly through the early days of COVID when unemployment shot up and there was a lot of requests for forbearance, we have a lot of data that led us to conclude that you're always -- or you're generally better off creating -- in times of, call it, macro stress, creating flexibility for borrowers and helping them work through those periods of turbulence.

這是桑傑。是的。所以關於貸款修改，我想一個簡單的描述方式是——甚至獨立於宏觀環境，我們有——當然是在 COVID 的早期，當時失業率飆升並且有很多寬容的請求，我們有大量數據使我們得出結論，在宏觀壓力時期，你總是——或者你通常更好地創造——為藉款人創造靈活性並幫助他們度過那些動盪時期.

I think in rough terms, if you charge off a loan, you're probably getting something in the order of $0.10 to $0.12 a dollar on the recovery. If you run an effective forbearance program, you can sort of get sort of on your $0.30 to $0.40 on the dollar. So we had plans anyways to sort of begin to optimize the way we managed modifications in forbearance. But I would say that this macro environment accelerated those plans because it's made it that much more valuable to the borrowers.

我認為粗略地說，如果您取消貸款，您可能會在復蘇中獲得每美元 0.10 至 0.12 美元的收益。如果你運行一個有效的寬容計劃，你可以從 0.30 美元到 0.40 美元的美元中獲得某種程度的收益。所以無論如何我們都有計劃開始優化我們在寬容中管理修改的方式。但我想說，這種宏觀環境加速了這些計劃，因為它讓借款人更有價值。

It's not an automatic enrollment thing. It still does require an application and review. But I would say we have all done -- and we loosened our standards to make it a program that was sort of more widely applicable.

這不是自動註冊的事情。它仍然需要申請和審查。但我想說我們都做到了——我們放寬了我們的標準，使其成為一種更廣泛適用的計劃。

Great. And my follow-up question relates to the fair value adjustment. It looks like in 2018, when interest rates were rising, the fair value adjustment was about a $40 million headwind to revenue. And then when interest rates fell, the fair value adjustment was about a $30 million tailwind in 2021, which probably would fall right to the bottom line of EBITDA. Could you discuss how we should think about that line item this year and how it impacts your EBITDA forecast given the rising rate environment?

偉大的。我的後續問題與公允價值調整有關。看起來在 2018 年利率上升時，公允價值調整對收入造成了約 4000 萬美元的阻力。然後，當利率下降時，2021 年的公允價值調整約為 3000 萬美元，這可能會跌至 EBITDA 的底線。您能否討論一下我們今年應該如何考慮該項目，以及考慮到利率上升的環境，它如何影響您的 EBITDA 預測？

Yes. Sure. I guess -- so that's always been, I would say, a small component of volatility on the P&L. As you know, it's sort of deprioritizing our business model.

是的。當然。我猜——所以我想說，這一直是損益表波動性的一小部分。如您所知，這在某種程度上降低了我們的商業模式的優先級。

The reason of the magnitude for it in 2018 was a bit of a technical one. In the early days of our securitization program, we were doing risk retention ourselves because we were a relatively new entrant into the market. We couldn't convince anyone to do it for us. So we had to consolidate a lot of those securitizations onto our balance sheet. And as a result, there are sort of big positives and big negatives. We didn't actually have any economic exposure to those deals. So some of that is a bit optical. I would say, in 2020 and 2021, you see our balance sheet reduced quite meaningfully. Some of that is just the deconsolidation of those ABS deals.

2018 年它的規模如此之大的原因有點技術性。在我們證券化計劃的早期，我們自己做風險保留，因為我們是一個相對較新的市場進入者。我們無法說服任何人為我們做這件事。因此，我們不得不將其中很多證券化產品整合到我們的資產負債表上。結果，有一些很大的積極因素和很大的消極因素。我們實際上對這些交易沒有任何經濟風險。所以其中一些有點光學。我想說，在 2020 年和 2021 年，您會看到我們的資產負債表顯著減少。其中一些只是對這些 ABS 交易的拆分。

The way I would think about it going forward is it's sort of a function of the scale of our balance sheet and what's going on in the economy. So for right now, our -- the scale of our balance sheet is a little bit bigger than it was last year. And obviously, when you put loans in the balance sheet, there's 2 different accounting treatments. Our particular accounting treatment is we mark our loans to market every quarter. And so when interest rates -- you're holding a loan and the interest rates are going up, you'll take a fair value hit. And so that's what's happening right now.

我認為它未來的方式是它是我們資產負債表規模和經濟狀況的函數。因此，就目前而言，我們的資產負債表規模比去年大一點。顯然，當您將貸款記入資產負債表時，有兩種不同的會計處理方式。我們特殊的會計處理是我們每個季度將我們的貸款標記為市場。因此，當利率——你持有貸款並且利率上升時，你會受到公允價值的打擊。這就是現在正在發生的事情。

I guess the answer to your question depends a little bit on what happens to interest rates, obviously. If they continue to go up -- and in particular, as Dave mentioned, the one that's particularly relevant to us is the 2-year treasury. So it's about 250 basis points higher than it was late last year. If that's topped out and it's stable, we shouldn't see any further fair value devaluations. But for holding loans on our balance sheet and that number continues to go up, there will be further devaluations.

我想你的問題的答案顯然取決於利率的變化。如果它們繼續上漲——特別是，正如戴夫所說，與我們特別相關的是 2 年期國債。因此，它比去年年底高出約 250 個基點。如果達到頂峰並且穩定，我們不應該看到任何進一步的公允價值貶值。但是對於在我們的資產負債表上持有貸款並且這個數字繼續上升，將會有進一步的貶值。

So I guess in the grand scheme, I kind of view this as it's going to create some positive and some negative volatility from year-to-year. I think in the long-term sort of framework of the business, we don't really view it as meaningful to the business opportunity we're trying to execute against.

因此，我想在宏偉的計劃中，我認為這將每年產生一些積極和消極的波動。我認為在業務的長期框架中，我們並不認為它對我們試圖執行的商業機會有意義。

We move to Arvind Ramnani with Piper Sandler.

我們和 Piper Sandler 一起搬到 Arvind Ramnani。

I just wanted to ask about some of the topics you've talked about. You're putting loans on your balance sheet. And I know, Sanjay, you clarified most of it is more for R&D, but there is some kind of some portion -- I don't know if you're able to sort of quantify what's R&D versus kind of just taking on like kind of regular risk. And then the second part of the question is, under what circumstances should we see that number go from the single digits to double digits? Is that possibility on the table as we look out for the rest of the year?

我只是想問一下你談到的一些話題。你把貸款放在你的資產負債表上。我知道，桑傑，你澄清了其中大部分更多是為了研發，但有一些部分——我不知道你是否能夠量化什麼是研發，而不是僅僅承擔類似的事情的常規風險。然後問題的第二部分是，在什麼情況下我們應該看到這個數字從個位數變為兩位數？在我們展望今年餘下的時間時，這種可能性是否會擺在桌面上？

Sure. Yes. I guess the answer to the first question, Arvind, is I think in Q1, probably about 3/4 of our loans are R&D. The majority of what we balance sheet was still in the auto segment, which we consider to still be sort of the R&D phase.

當然。是的。我想第一個問題的答案，Arvind，我認為在第一季度，我們大約 3/4 的貸款用於研發。我們資產負債表的大部分仍然在汽車領域，我們認為這仍然是研發階段。

What is the -- what are the potential future scenarios? It's a good question. To some extent, it depends on the -- it's a function of the level of dislocation in the economy and the progress we've made in, I would say, automating our platform's ability to react to new market-clearing rates. So in a world where our platform exists as it does us today and there's further sharp shocks to the interest rate, and what's happening is the prices on our platform are not reacting in real time to the return requirements of the investors as they're changing. That's the situation in which our balance sheet has sort of stepped in to create stability.

什麼是——潛在的未來情景是什麼？這是個好問題。在某種程度上，它取決於 - 它是經濟混亂程度的函數，以及我們在自動化平台對新市場清算率做出反應的能力方面取得的進展。因此，在我們的平台與我們今天一樣存在的世界中，利率進一步受到劇烈衝擊，而正在發生的事情是我們平台上的價格在投資者的回報要求發生變化時並沒有實時做出反應.這就是我們的資產負債表已經介入以創造穩定的情況。

So I would hope that, on the one hand, we're creating more of an automated mechanism in our platform's ability to react to those changes in the economy so they would happen in real-time. Investors, maybe at the limit could just set their own rates as they change. And it sort of depends also to some extent on the stability of the rates in the economy. So those are a bit hard to judge, but it's sort of a real-time equation for us as the environment changes.

所以我希望，一方面，我們正在創建更多的自動化機制，讓我們的平台能夠對經濟中的這些變化做出反應，以便它們實時發生。投資者，也許在他們改變時可以設定他們自己的利率。它在某種程度上也取決於經濟中利率的穩定性。所以這些有點難以判斷，但隨著環境的變化，這對我們來說是一個實時方程。

Great. And then just a follow-up on auto. Remember, we had met in New York. Maybe it's been a couple of months now. One of the topics you discussed was auto kind of -- you kind of looked at kind of -- take the large proportion of the auto loan to kind of work with the banking partners. Is there like a time line change just given circumstances have changed quite a bit in the last couple of months? Or do you still feel like you can stick to the original sort of time frame?

偉大的。然後只是對汽車的跟進。請記住，我們在紐約見過面。也許現在已經有幾個月了。你討論的主題之一是汽車——你有點看——把大部分汽車貸款用於與銀行合作夥伴的合作。鑑於過去幾個月的情況發生了很大變化，是否存在時間線變化？還是你仍然覺得你可以堅持原來的時間框架？

I don't think that's changed. I mean we've kind of thought of this year, for the refi product, we are bringing lenders on. We have 12 signed up now. So our first priority is bringing lenders onto that platform, and we'll do that through the second half of this year. The auto retail product is different and much earlier, and I would view that as something where we'll move toward bringing lenders and -- on toward the beginning of next year. So there are different time frames, but I don't think our expectations for either of those products have changed.

我認為這沒有改變。我的意思是，我們今年已經考慮過，對於 refi 產品，我們正在引入貸方。我們現在有12個註冊。因此，我們的首要任務是將貸方引入該平台，我們將在今年下半年實現這一目標。汽車零售產品是不同的，而且要早得多，我認為這是我們將朝著引入貸方的方向邁進的地方，並且——在明年年初。所以有不同的時間框架，但我認為我們對這兩種產品的期望都沒有改變。

Moving forward to Shebly Seyrafi with FBN Securities.

與 FBN Securities 一起前往 Shebly Seyrafi。

So I was impressed by your 18% sequential growth in your average loan amount. And so it hit $9,700, but you were at $13,000 at the beginning of 2020. Do you think you can approach that number anytime soon?

因此，您的平均貸款額連續增長 18% 給我留下了深刻印象。所以它達到了 9,700 美元，但你在 2020 年初達到了 13,000 美元。你認為你可以很快接近這個數字嗎？

Shelby -- oh, go ahead, Dave.

謝爾比——哦，繼續，戴夫。

Well, why don't I start? We don't expect that -- I would not expect it to go back to $13,000. I think, basically, our -- as our systems get better, proving more people at the margins, you're going to trend towards smaller loan sizes. There's a lot of good things about having better support for smaller loan sizes in terms of what people need. We're now launching the Small Dollar product, which is, of course, even smaller.

好吧，我為什麼不開始？我們不指望——我不指望它會回到 13,000 美元。我認為，基本上，我們的 - 隨著我們的系統變得更好，證明更多的人處於邊緣，你將趨向於更小的貸款規模。就人們的需求而言，為較小的貸款規模提供更好的支持有很多好處。我們現在推出 Small Dollar 產品，當然，它更小。

So I don't see a dynamic, other than maybe a short-term thing here and there, that would drive loan size up significantly. It can be just driven by demand, and we may get some high-quality, very prime bank lenders on the platform, which would typically have larger average loan sizes. So it can be some puts and takes like that. But if you looked across the whole platform and you look across a significant period of time, it's actually kind of hard to imagine loan sizes going back to where they would have been back then.

所以我看不到任何動態，除了可能是短期的事情，這會顯著推動貸款規模。它可以只是由需求驅動，我們可能會在平台上獲得一些高質量、非常優質的銀行貸方，這些貸方通常具有更大的平均貸款規模。所以它可以是一些這樣的看跌期權。但是，如果您查看整個平台並查看相當長的一段時間，實際上很難想像貸款規模會回到當時的水平。

Okay. And my follow-up is that the loan amount on your balance sheet is about $600 million. So can we -- or can you say at least that, that was a high watermark for the year or that's going to be the high watermark for the year? Or do you think it can grow meaningfully over the next couple of quarters?

好的。我的跟進是，您資產負債表上的貸款金額約為 6 億美元。那麼我們可以 - 或者您至少可以這麼說，這是今年的高水位線還是將成為今年的高水位線？還是您認為它可以在接下來的幾個季度中顯著增長？

I don't know that we could say that that's the high watermark. I mean our plan's to continue with R&D programs. The demand there is growing. As we get out of the auto refi sort of balance sheet program, we're going to start to shift some of those dollars to retail as they become more significant later in the year. And as Dave said, we think we'll be in market with small business lending.

我不知道我們可以說那是高水位線。我的意思是我們的計劃是繼續進行研發計劃。那裡的需求正在增長。隨著我們退出汽車再融資式的資產負債表計劃，我們將開始將其中一些美元轉移到零售業，因為它們在今年晚些時候變得更加重要。正如戴夫所說，我們認為我們將進入小企業貸款市場。

These are all programs that -- investment markets and banks are going to want to see some amount of curves and history before they start investing significant dollars so that they -- and argue will require some incubation. And the other side of the equation is the economy does remain very fluid right now. And if we do need to step in with our balance sheet to sort of to stabilize the core business, I think that's an important tool for us. I don't think we would ever do it in any way that started to exhaust our capacity or even come close to it. But it is a tool that -- although it's not our objective, it's an important stabilizer of the business as -- when the waters are choppy, so to speak.

這些都是投資市場和銀行在開始投資大量資金之前希望看到一些曲線和歷史的項目，因此他們認為需要一些孵化。等式的另一面是經濟目前確實仍然非常不穩定。如果我們確實需要介入我們的資產負債表以穩定核心業務，我認為這對我們來說是一個重要的工具。我不認為我們會以任何開始耗盡我們的能力甚至接近它的方式來做這件事。但它是一種工具——儘管它不是我們的目標，但它是業務的重要穩定器——可以說，當水波濤洶湧時。

Next question from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 James Faucette 的下一個問題。

This is Sandy Beatty on for James. Can you remind us how the user limits impact what your platform can do, particularly for those lower-end consumers? And I guess, are there scenarios where you run into issues here just in terms of capping what would otherwise be approved as APR offers move higher? And how does that impact your market share trajectory?

這是詹姆斯的桑迪比蒂。你能提醒我們用戶限制如何影響你的平台可以做什麼，特別是對於那些低端消費者？而且我想，您是否會在某些情況下遇到問題，只是在限制 APR 報價更高時會被批准的內容方面？這對您的市場份額軌蹟有何影響？

Sure. So basically, there's 50 -- some 50-plus lenders on the platform. They each have their own sort of statutory arrangement they operate under. It could be state-chartered, could be nationally chartered. So they have different rate caps that they observe themselves, and we have no say on that whatsoever. If you look across the entire platform, we have made a decision a long time ago that we don't support any lender originating loans above 36%. So that's the statute that all sort of nationally chartered banks are under. And we just kind of made the decision a long time ago, that's where we want to put the limit for the platform overall. So we can control that.

當然。所以基本上，平台上有 50 家——大約 50 多家貸方。他們每個人都有自己的法定安排。它可以是國家特許的，也可以是國家特許的。所以他們有不同的利率上限，他們自己觀察到，我們對此沒有任何發言權。如果你縱觀整個平台，我們很久以前就做出了一個決定，我們不支持任何高於 36% 的貸方發起的貸款。這就是所有類型的全國特許銀行都遵守的法規。我們很久以前就做出了決定，這就是我們想要為整個平台設置限制的地方。所以我們可以控制它。

So the bottom line is, we -- when -- there were a lot of people that 3 months ago, might have been approved close to 36%, that today, would not be approved at all. So for sure, when rates go up and return hurdles go up, it has the effect of pushing people out of the approval band and into the decline band. And that's just the nature of the business. And when the model gets a little smarter, it will approve some of them and it will disapprove others that it might have approved before. And that also is the nature of the business, the nature of the product getting better.

所以底線是，我們 - 當 - 有很多人在 3 個月前可能已經獲得近 36% 的批准，而今天根本不會獲得批准。因此，可以肯定的是，當利率上升和回報障礙上升時，它會產生將人們推出認可區間並進入下降區間的效果。這就是業務的本質。當模型變得更聰明一點時，它會批准其中的一些，它會不批准以前可能已經批准的其他模型。這也是業務的本質，產品的本質越來越好。

But that's the bottom line. We don't, per se, have any say in what a bank or credit union's maximum APR is. That's a function of both their own business model and their own regulatory regime that they operate under.

但這是底線。我們本身對銀行或信用合作社的最高 APR 沒有任何發言權。這是他們自己的商業模式和他們自己運作的監管制度的一個功能。

Got it. And just as a quick follow-up. Take rates. In a tighter funding environment with downward pressure on conversion, is there a scenario where we could see changes to unit economics just within that funding backdrop? Just wanted to make sure I ask.

知道了。就像快速跟進一樣。採取利率。在融資環境趨緊且轉換面臨下行壓力的情況下，是否有可能在融資背景下看到單位經濟發生變化？只是想確保我問。

Sandy, it's Sanjay. I guess the short answer is yes. As macro environment becomes more challenging, you might see us become more conservative in how we're managing the business, and that could result in higher take rates or bigger, larger unit economics from lower marketing and operations costs.

桑迪，是桑傑。我想簡短的回答是肯定的。隨著宏觀環境變得更具挑戰性，您可能會看到我們在管理業務的方式上變得更加保守，這可能會通過降低營銷和運營成本導致更高的錄取率或更大、更大的單位經濟效益。

We take our final question from Nat Schindler with Bank of America.

最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Nat Schindler。

So you mentioned that the -- you outperformed heavily during the pandemic because of stimulus. It makes sense. And now your loans are showing signs of underperformance, particularly in the worst -- the lowest-quality loans, the lowest-FICO score loans, I'm guessing. You do -- the bulk of your low-FICO score lending really started late last year. And what does that mean for your -- the performance of your entire portfolio of loans that would have been 2022 or later? Are we looking -- or maybe even Q4 2021 originations and later? Are those going to be even significantly worse than you were suggesting because they're weighted towards those lower-quality loans?

所以你提到 - 由於刺激措施，你在大流行期間表現出色。這說得通。現在你的貸款表現出表現不佳的跡象，尤其是在最糟糕的情況下——我猜是質量最低的貸款，FICO 評分最低的貸款。你確實這樣做了——你的大部分低 FICO 分數貸款實際上是在去年年底開始的。這對您來說意味著什麼——您的整個貸款組合的表現將是 2022 年或更晚？我們是否正在尋找——或者甚至可能是 2021 年第四季度及以後的起源？這些是否會比你建議的更糟糕，因為它們偏重於那些質量較低的貸款？

So Nat, a couple of things of clarity because the statements you're making are entirely accurate. First of all, most of the effect we saw from the decline from the sort of retraction stimulus was across the board, all flavors of loans. So I mean, there was some marginal difference between the highest-risk loans and the lowest-risk loans. But largely, it was an effect that we saw that was universal. And for us, it's a very clear sign that it's a macro effect. So that's one important thing to say.

所以 Nat，有幾件事情要清楚，因為你所做的陳述是完全準確的。首先，我們從那種撤回刺激措施的下降中看到的大部分影響是全面的，各種類型的貸款。所以我的意思是，最高風險貸款和最低風險貸款之間存在一些邊際差異。但在很大程度上，這是我們看到的普遍效應。對我們來說，這是一個非常明顯的跡象，表明這是一種宏觀效應。所以這是一件很重要的事情。

Another important thing to say is actually has nothing to do with FICO or whatsoever. It's really by our own risk grades that we look at these things. FICO -- and you can actually see this in some information we put into the investor deck. Our risk separation was dramatically more than FICO. So it's not really related to FICO scores whatsoever.

要說的另一件重要的事情實際上與 FICO 或其他任何事情無關。我們真正根據自己的風險等級來看待這些事情。 FICO——你實際上可以在我們放入投資者甲板的一些信息中看到這一點。我們的風險分離遠遠超過 FICO。所以它與 FICO 分數沒有任何關係。

But there you have it. I mean, I think that we're very happy with how the model is performing now. It has been stable, as Sanjay said, for the last 60 days. I think the bottom line is when you go through a period where the government essentially pays everybody's salaries for most of a year and then suddenly stops, it's a pretty damn difficult thing to calibrate exactly right. And so I don't think we're exactly right. But our risk ranking has been exceptional. The product is stable today. And none of our banks and credit union partners have seen any underperformance. So overall, we're actually feeling quite good.

但是你現在有了。我的意思是，我認為我們對模型現在的表現非常滿意。正如桑傑所說，在過去的 60 天裡，它一直很穩定。我認為底線是當你經歷一個政府基本上支付每個人一年大部分時間的工資然後突然停止的時期時，要準確校準是一件非常困難的事情。所以我不認為我們完全正確。但我們的風險排名非常出色。今天的產品很穩定。我們的銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴都沒有看到任何表現不佳的情況。所以總的來說，我們實際上感覺很好。

What's the risk of something like this? Oh, sorry.

這樣的事情有什麼風險？哦對不起。

Right, Nat. I was just going to maybe again describe, I kind of -- I know you're -- sort of the direction you're heading in. But the effect was broad. As Dave said, it was maybe slightly more on high-risk loans than low-risk loans. But the real relationship to cohort performance is on timing. And by that, what I mean is if you're sort of the -- if you're an investor buying happily or a bank sort of originating happily across the past couple of years, what you'd see is probably 12 vintage quarters of overperformance. The ones that were timed right around the injection of the stimulus, so call it, late '19, '19 to sort of early 2021, those will overperform dramatically. So maybe kind of like 2x the return target.

對，納特。我只是想再次描述一下，我有點——我知道你是——有點像你前進的方向。但效果很廣泛。正如戴夫所說，高風險貸款可能略高於低風險貸款。但與隊列表現的真正關係在於時機。我的意思是，如果你是那種——如果你是一個快樂地購買的投資者，或者在過去幾年裡快樂地起源於一家銀行，你會看到可能是 12 個老式季度表現優異。那些恰好在註入刺激措施前後的時間，所謂的，即 19 年末、19 年到 2021 年初，它們的表現將大大超出預期。所以可能有點像回報目標的 2 倍。

And then the sort of the 2 or 3 vintages that were right around the time of what we call the reversal of the loss trend, and you could see that from our investor deck, it was sort of like the Q2 and the Q3 2021, will marginally underperform into the tune of, we'll call it, 20%. So really, the underperformance we're talking about, it's tempting to kind of want to relate to the change in mix we've had over the last year. But really, what it is, is it lines up almost exactly with the injection and the sort of the evaporation of the government stimulus. And as Dave said, there's marginal differences between the low and the high end of risk. But I think that's the secondary story. It's not the main driving effect here.

然後是我們所說的虧損趨勢逆轉時期的 2 或 3 個年份，你可以從我們的投資者甲板上看到，它有點像 2021 年第二季度和第三季度，將表現略遜於我們稱之為 20% 的調子。所以真的，我們正在談論的表現不佳，有點想與我們在過去一年中的組合變化聯繫起來。但實際上，它與註入和政府刺激措施的蒸發幾乎完全一致。正如戴夫所說，風險的低端和高端之間存在邊際差異。但我認為這是次要的故事。這不是這裡的主要驅動作用。

Would then it be reasonable to assume if student loan forbearance ends as expected that it would have a compounding effect on this? It would be the opposite of stimulus?

那麼假設學生貸款延期是否按預期結束，是否會對此產生復合影響？這會與刺激相反嗎？

If forbearance ends, meaning if they start demanding the repayment of student loans? Or if they forgive student loans?

如果忍耐結束，意味著他們是否開始要求償還學生貸款？或者如果他們免除學生貸款？

Yes. When they start to demanding repayment again, as expected. I mean it's still unknown what they're going to do, but keeps getting delayed. So...

是的。正如預期的那樣，當他們再次開始要求還款時。我的意思是它仍然不知道他們將要做什麼，但一直在拖延。所以...

Yes. I think that would be another example of reversal of stimulus, right? They've sort of allowed forbearance for a long time. And so I think it would just maybe be a continuation of the trend I'm describing. I think the majority of the excess balance sheet in our economy has been unwound. You'd see like the personal savings rates, they shot up in a couple of different instances over the course of 2020 and early 2021. And those savings rates are right back down to where they were before. So there may be some -- maybe not all of the stimulus has been rained out of the economy. You could sort of describe it that way, but we think a lot of it, if not the majority of it has. And so there may be a bit more to go. But as I said, we've seen stable trends now for a couple of months.

是的。我認為這將是刺激逆轉的另一個例子，對吧？很長一段時間以來，他們都允許忍耐。所以我認為這可能只是我所描述的趨勢的延續。我認為我們經濟中的大部分超額資產負債表已經解除。您會看到個人儲蓄率在 2020 年和 2021 年初的幾個不同情況下飆升。這些儲蓄率又回到了以前的水平。所以可能會有一些——也許並不是所有的刺激措施都從經濟中消失了。你可以這樣描述它，但我們認為很多，如果不是大部分的話。所以可能還有更多工作要做。但正如我所說，我們已經看到了幾個月的穩定趨勢。

Okay. Is there any demographic -- kind of -- are you more demographically targeted towards younger people who are likely to be -- to have student loans? Or are you more broad? Are you targeted somewhere else? Just wondering how much -- how big of an impact that could be on your borrowers.

好的。是否有任何人口統計 - 有點 - 你是否在人口統計上更針對可能 - 擁有學生貸款的年輕人？還是你更寬泛？你是針對其他地方的嗎？只是想知道對你的借款人有多大的影響。

I would say in the past, we definitely like the inception of our company, largely it was around tensile borrowers, but I don't think that's the case anymore. I think we have a pretty broadly distributed portfolio across the risk grades and the demographics now. So I don't know. I think it's the -- the biggest platform in this space will probably be -- I think you could imagine trends will be roughly proportional to the general population talk at this point.

我會說過去，我們絕對喜歡我們公司的成立，主要是圍繞著緊張的借款人，但我認為現在情況不再如此。我認為我們現在在風險等級和人口統計方面擁有相當廣泛的投資組合。所以我不知道。我認為這可能是這個領域最大的平台——我認為你可以想像目前的趨勢將與一般人群的談話大致成正比。

It appears there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Dave Girouard for any additional or closing remarks.

目前似乎沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回 Dave Girouard 以獲取任何補充或結束語。

I just want to say thanks, everybody. We are actually quite pleased and quite happy with the results. Definitely appreciating also that 2022 is a complicated year in the economy and a lot of open questions, but we are exceptionally confident in the strength of the business and is optimistic about our future as we have been. So thanks to everybody for joining us today.

我只想對大家說聲謝謝。實際上，我們對結果非常滿意和非常滿意。我們也非常感謝 2022 年是經濟複雜的一年，存在許多懸而未決的問題，但我們對業務的實力非常有信心，並對我們的未來充滿信心。感謝大家今天加入我們。

That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。