Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Upstart Q2 2022 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加 Upstart 2022 年第二季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Jason Schmidt。先生，請開始。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results. With us on today's call are Dave Girouard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 Upstart 2022 年第二季的財務表現。今天參加電話會議的嘉賓包括 Upstart 執行長 Dave Girouard 和財務長 Sanjay Datta。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its second quarter 2022 financial results and published an Investor Relations presentation and credit FAQ. All are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.upstart.com.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天股市收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了其 2022 年第二季度的財務業績，並發布了一份投資者關係演示文稿和信用常見問題解答。所有這些都可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.upstart.com 上找到。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance for the third quarter of 2022 related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law. In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables.

在電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如與我們業務相關的 2022 年第三季的指引以及我們未來擴展平台的計劃。這些陳述是基於我們目前的預期和截至今天可用的信息，並受各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。由於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。因此，我們提醒您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。此外，在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則對我們業績的引用均以非 GAAP 財務指標提供，並與我們的 GAAP 業績相協調，後者可在收益報告和補充表格中找到。

(Operator Instructions) Later this quarter, Upstart will be participating in the Goldman Sachs Communacopia Plus Technology Conference, September 13; and the Piper Sandler Growth Frontier Conference, September 14.

（操作員指示）本季晚些時候，Upstart 將參加 9 月 13 日舉行的高盛 Communacopia Plus 技術會議；以及 9 月 14 日舉行的 Piper Sandler 成長前沿會議。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

現在我想把時間交給 Upstart 執行長 Dave Girouard。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our second quarter 2022 results. I'm Dave Girouard, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart. Today, we reported a decline in revenues, which is obviously disappointing and unacceptable to us. I want to explain where this decline came from and what we're doing to address it.

大家下午好。感謝大家參加我們2022年第二季業績電話會議。我是Upstart共同創辦人兼執行長戴夫·吉魯阿德（Dave Girouard）。今天，我們報告了收入下降，這對我們來說顯然令人失望且無法接受。我想解釋一下這種下降的原因以及我們正在採取的措施。

It may be natural for you to question whether Upstart's AI-powered risk models aren't working as designed, but we're confident this isn't the case, that, in fact, our models continue to improve with respect to accuracy and risk separation. But there's no getting around the fact that a decline in revenues is a business problem that we need to address. And today, we'll share with you the actions we're taking to address it.

您可能會質疑 Upstart 的 AI 風險模型是否未能如預期發揮作用，這很自然，但我們確信並非如此，事實上，我們的模型在準確性和風險分離方面正在持續改進。但不可否認的是，收入下降是我們需要解決的業務問題。今天，我們將與您分享我們為解決這個問題所採取的措施。

Today, Sanjay and I will discuss a variety of topics, including credit performance, loan funding, lending partner sentiment and some of the actions we're taking right now to make sure Upstart's future is bright. I also want to share with you the progress we have made in many important aspects of our business and how they're setting the stage once again for Upstart's growth in the future.

今天，Sanjay 和我將討論一系列主題，包括信貸業績、貸款融資、貸款合作夥伴的情緒，以及我們目前正在採取的一些行動，以確保 Upstart 的未來一片光明。我也想與大家分享我們在業務許多重要方面所取得的進展，以及這些進展如何為 Upstart 未來的發展奠定基礎。

I don't want to spend too much time restating what you've already heard about the current economic climate. Given the nature of our product and our borrower, we do, however, have a unique lens into what's transpired in the last 2-plus years and what may transpire in the coming months and years. We believe we're at the end of a unique economic cycle related to the pandemic that included 2 distinct phases. The first phase was triggered by a pandemic-constrained consumer spending and unprecedented government stimulus throughout 2020 and early 2021. These together drove significant improvements in consumer savings levels and liquidity, which in turn led to dramatic overperformance of credit during the space. Our platform experienced about a 50% reduction in credit defaults compared to the pre-COVID time frame.

我不想花太多時間重複各位已經聽過的關於當前經濟情勢的討論。然而，鑑於我們產品和借款人的性質，我們確實對過去兩年多發生的事情以及未來幾個月和幾年可能發生的情況有著獨特的視角。我們認為，我們正處於與疫情相關的一個獨特經濟週期的尾聲，這個週期包含兩個不同的階段。第一階段是由疫情抑制的消費支出和2020年全年及2021年初前所未有的政府刺激措施引發的。這些因素共同推動了消費者儲蓄水準和流動性的顯著改善，進而導致信貸在此期間大幅超額成長。與疫情前相比，我們平台的信用違約率下降了約50%。

In the second phase, toward the end of 2021 and into 2022, this effect began to unwind as stimulus was discontinued and consumers begin to travel, dine out and spend once again. And as expected, default rates returned to pre-COVID levels or in some cases, even higher. While virtually all consumers benefited financially from reduced spending during the early stages of the pandemic, this cycle was concentrated in consumers who received government stimulus checks, a demographic, which is also more likely to be Upstart borrowers.

在第二階段，即2021年底至2022年，隨著刺激措施的終止，消費者開始恢復出行、外出用餐和消費，這種影響開始消退。不出所料，違約率回到了新冠疫情之前的水平，在某些情況下甚至更高。雖然在疫情初期，幾乎所有消費者都因支出減少而獲得了經濟利益，但這個週期主要集中在領取政府刺激支票的消費者身上，而這群人也更有可能成為新興借款人。

Our risk models largely captured these effects and performed admirably, though not perfectly throughout. But I'll get to that in a bit. We believe we're now at the end of the 2-phase cycle and an important question for all of us is what's next. Will efforts to slow inflation lead to recession and unemployment. While no one knows the future, we do expect a significant slowing of the economy and a worse-than-normal macro for the next year and beyond. We'll speak to that as well. Our job to all of this is to ensure the future of our platform and to protect Upstart's ability to pursue our mission for years to come.

我們的風險模型在很大程度上捕捉到了這些影響，並且表現得非常出色，儘管並非始終完美。我稍後會談到這一點。我們認為，我們現在正處於兩階段週期的尾聲，對我們所有人來說，一個重要的問題是接下來會發生什麼。抑制通膨的努力是否會導致經濟衰退和失業？雖然沒有人知道未來會發生什麼，但我們確實預計明年及以後經濟將大幅放緩，宏觀經濟將比正常情況更糟。我們也會討論這個問題。我們的工作是確保我們平台的未來，並確保 Upstart 在未來幾年繼續履行我們的使命。

Alongside our earnings release, we today shared some responses to important questions regarding credit performance on Upstart's platform. It goes without saying that measuring credit performance is vital and it's also nontrivial. Comparing one platform to another can be challenging, different products, different borrowers, different return targets, months on book, prepayments, hardship policies and more. There's no simple apples-to-apples comparison. We believe the essential measurement for credit performance is actual dollar returns compared to the lenders or institutional investors target at the time of origination, full stop. And today, we provided this information for all Upstart cohorts going back to the beginning of 2018.

除了發布業績報告外，我們今天也分享了一些關於 Upstart 平台信貸表現的重要問題的解答。毋庸置疑，衡量信貸表現至關重要，而且並非易事。比較不同平台可能頗具挑戰性，因為平台之間產品、借款人、回報目標、帳面餘額、預付款項、困難政策等等都有差異。沒有簡單的同類比較。我們認為，衡量信貸表現的關鍵指標是實際美元回報與貸款機構或機構投資者在貸款發放時的目標回報之間的比較，僅此而已。今天，我們為所有 Upstart 成員提供了這些信息，最早可追溯到 2018 年初。

The bottom line is this: our 70-plus bank and credit union partners who typically retain loans in the lower risk rates appropriate to their businesses have seen to date portfolios consistently meet or exceed expectations since the program began in 2018. And however, institutional loan buyers done against the target of approximately 8% gross return since Q1 2018, institutional buyers have so far seen 12 quarterly vintages overperform with 5 expected to underperform.

重點是：我們 70 多家銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴通常將貸款保留在適合其業務的較低風險利率中，自 2018 年該計劃啟動以來，他們的投資組合一直達到或超過預期。然而，自 2018 年第一季以來，機構貸款買家已實現約 8% 的總回報率目標，迄今為止，機構買家已看到 12 個季度的表現超出預期，5 個季度的表現預計會低於預期。

It's important to highlight that a loan buyer who invested equally in all cohorts since Q1 2018 would have experienced a positive return on all vintages thus far with an overall 9.8% gross annualized return. This compares to a return of less than 3% in the U.S. high-yield bond index over that same period.

值得強調的是，自2018年第一季以來，如果貸款買家在所有投資週期中均等投資，迄今為止所有投資週期都將獲得正回報，年化總回報率為9.8%。相比之下，同期美國高收益債券指數的報酬率不到3%。

Lastly, we believe it's not reasonable to expect above-target loan performance, irrespective of the economic cycle. So it's fundamentally important to separate the impact of macro conditions from imperfections in the credit model. The essential litmus test for model performance is separation of high- and low-risk borrowers. As demonstrated in the loss rate by grade and AUC metrics we shared today, our model is positively differentiated in this respect, and it continues to improve. In an effort to deliver unparalleled transparency and analytics, we will provide this detailed information to each of our lenders and loan buyers.

最後，我們認為，無論經濟週期如何，都不應預期貸款業績高於目標。因此，將宏觀環境的影響與信貸模型的缺陷區分開來至關重要。模型績效的關鍵檢驗標準是區分高風險和低風險借款人。正如我們今天分享的按等級劃分的損失率和AUC指標所示，我們的模型在這方面表現出色，並且持續改進。為了提供無與倫比的透明度和分析能力，我們將向每位貸款人和貸款購買者提供這些詳細資訊。

Today, we're in a funding-constrained environment, which is the primary cause of our revenue shortfall. I want to share some thoughts on this situation and actions we're taking to address it. First, as we have said recently, our goal is to operate as a marketplace for credit over the long run. We want loan transactions to take place when they make sense for the borrower and the lender. And certainly, lending is a category which would expect to experience some volatility over time due to macroeconomic factors.

目前，我們正處於資金緊張的環境中，這是我們收入短缺的主要原因。我想分享一些關於這種情況的想法，以及我們正在採取的應對措施。首先，正如我們最近所說，我們的目標是長期營運信貸市場。我們希望貸款交易在對借款人和貸款人都合理的情況下進行。當然，貸款這個類別預計會隨著時間的推移，受到宏觀經濟因素的影響而出現一些波動。

Having said that, in the last few months, lenders and institutional credit investors reacted more quickly and abruptly than we anticipated. Despite the fact that our bank partners have seen consistently strong credit performance, meaning portfolios performing at or above plan across quarterly cohort, several of them have paused or reduced originations due to fear about the future of the economy. To be clear, these lenders and institutional investors have not left Upstart platform but have temporarily paused or reduced their originations.

話雖如此，在過去幾個月裡，貸款機構和機構信貸投資者的反應比我們預期的要快得多，也更突然。儘管我們的銀行合作夥伴的信貸業績持續強勁，這意味著投資組合在各個季度的表現都達到或超過了計劃，但其中一些銀行由於對未來經濟的擔憂而暫停或減少了貸款發放。需要明確的是，這些貸款機構和機構投資者並沒有離開 Upstart 平台，只是暫時暫停或減少了貸款發放。

As we shared in our credit performance FAQ today, we believe our models are well calibrated to the current economic environment and in fact, include a generous accommodation for a recession over the next 18 to 24 months. And given funding constraints, we believe the opportunity for lenders to generate strong returns on Upstart is unusually high right now, yet the reaction of lenders is often binary in nature, more so than we would have anticipated. As a result, we've concluded that we need to upgrade and improve the funding side of our marketplace, bringing a significant amount of committed capital on board from partners who invest consistently through cycles. We're currently evaluating a variety of opportunities to do just that. So we expect this will take some time to bring to fruition.

正如我們今天在信用表現常見問題解答中分享的那樣，我們相信我們的模型已經充分適應了當前的經濟環境，事實上，它已經為未來18到24個月的經濟衰退做好了充分的準備。鑑於資金限制，我們認為貸款機構目前在Upstart上獲得高額回報的機會異常高，但貸款機構的反應往往是非此即彼的，超出了我們的預期。因此，我們得出結論，我們需要升級和改進我們市場的融資管道，從那些在各個週期中持續投資的合作夥伴那裡引入大量承諾資本。我們目前正在評估各種實現這一目標的機會。因此，我們預計這需要一些時間才能實現。

Furthermore, while we continue to believe that it doesn't make sense for Upstart to become a bank, we've decided it may make sense to, at times, leverage our own balance sheet as a transitional bridge to this committed funding. I acknowledge that this is a shift relative to what we planned and communicated earlier this year but a changing and volatile environment suggests we need to be flexible and responsive in our approach.

此外，儘管我們仍然認為 Upstart 轉型為銀行並不明智，但我們決定，有時利用我們自己的資產負債表作為過渡橋樑，以達到承諾的融資目標，或許是明智之舉。我承認，這與我們今年早些時候的計劃和溝通有所不同，但瞬息萬變、動盪不安的環境意味著，我們需要採取靈活應對的策略。

We're taking this step for a few reasons. First, there's an obvious information asymmetry where we understand better than anybody how our model is performing today and how well it's calibrated for the current economic environment. Secondly, we believe the opportunity to generate outsized profits on our platform is unusually high right now. And third, we can bring a level of stability to our business that's important to our longer-term goals while we work to put these committed capital structures in place. Sanjay will share some more about this in his remarks shortly.

我們採取這項措施有幾個原因。首先，有明顯的資訊不對稱，我們比任何人都更了解我們的模式目前的表現，以及它與當前經濟環境的匹配程度。其次，我們認為目前在我們的平台上創造超額利潤的機會異常高。第三，在我們努力落實這些承諾的資本結構的同時，我們可以為業務帶來一定程度的穩定性，這對我們的長期目標至關重要。 Sanjay 稍後將在演講中進一步分享這方面的內容。

I want to also highlight that we're building a business that can survive and thrive through a variety of market conditions to make sure we achieve these ambitious, long-term goals. Our fixed costs are low, and our gross margins are strong so we continue to invest in our road map and in our future through a variety of macro environments.

我還想強調的是，我們正在打造一家能夠在各種市場條件下生存和發展的企業，以確保我們實現這些雄心勃勃的長期目標。我們的固定成本低，毛利率高，因此無論在何種宏觀環境下，我們都會繼續投資於我們的發展路線圖和未來。

We continue to make rapid progress in the newer parts of our business, and we're optimistic that this progress is setting up the next stage of growth for Upstart, which I'm sure you're all looking forward to. First, we continue to add new lenders to our marketplace, with a total of 71 banks and credit unions as of today, up from 57 when we last spoke to you in May.

我們在業務的新領域持續快速發展，並樂觀地認為這些進展將為 Upstart 的下一階段成長奠定基礎，我相信大家都對此充滿期待。首先，我們不斷增加新的貸款機構加入我們的市場，截至今天，共有 71 家銀行和信用合作社加入，而我們上次在 5 月採訪時只有 57 家。

Despite the cautionary outlook in the financial services industry, forward-thinking banks and credit unions continue to choose Upstart. We now have 640 dealerships using Upstart auto retail software. And just a few weeks ago, industry analyst automotive market data declared that Upstart was the nation's fastest-growing auto retail software provider in the second quarter. Subaru and VW were the latest OEMs that announced support for Upstart auto retail, joining Toyota, Lexus, Mitsubishi and Kia as well as top franchise dealers from 37 brands including Ford, Honda and BMW.

儘管金融服務業前景謹慎，但具有前瞻性的銀行和信用合作社仍在繼續選擇 Upstart。目前，我們有 640 家經銷商使用 Upstart 汽車零售軟體。就在幾週前，產業分析師的汽車市場數據顯示，Upstart 是第二季美國成長最快的汽車零售軟體供應商。斯巴魯和大眾是最新宣布支持 Upstart 汽車零售的原始設備製造商，此前，豐田、雷克薩斯、三菱和起亞以及福特、本田和寶馬等 37 個品牌的頂級特許經銷商也宣布支持 Upstart 汽車零售。

We also expanded our auto retail lending product out to 29 dealerships and saw the first $10 million in retail loan originations in the second quarter. In just the last couple of weeks, we merged our machine learning model for automated income verification, originally developed for our personal loan product into our auto retail lending flow. We expect this improvement to more than double the percent of applicants for whom we can now automatically verify their income.

我們也將汽車零售貸款產品拓展至29家經銷店，並於第二季實現了首筆1,000萬美元的零售貸款發放。就在最近幾週，我們將最初為個人貸款產品開發的自動收入驗證機器學習模型整合到了汽車零售貸款流程中。我們預計，這項改進將使目前能夠自動驗證收入的申請人比例提高一倍以上。

I'm also pleased to announce that we quietly launched our small business loan product at the end of June, well ahead of schedule. We've already seen some more than 40 small business loans originated, totaling more than $1 million in principle in just a few weeks. That team is quickly ironing out operational issues with an eye toward rapidly expanding this product in the coming months and years. Lastly, the small dollar loan team launched support for Spanish-speaking applicants, another giant step towards serving those left out of the country's mainstream financial system.

我還很高興地宣布，我們已於6月底悄悄推出了小型企業貸款產品，遠超預期。短短幾週內，我們已發放了40多筆小型企業貸款，本金總額超過100萬美元。該團隊正在迅速解決營運問題，並著眼於在未來數月乃至數年內迅速推廣該產品。最後，小額美元貸款團隊推出了對西班牙語申請人的支持，這是我們向服務於被排除在主流金融體系之外的群體邁出的又一大步。

Some of you have questioned whether Upstart veered too quickly into lending to riskier borrowers in 2021 in order to grow in our post-IPO phase. But I believe we have done exactly what we set out to do and what we said we would do. Upstart's mission is and has been to leverage modern technology and data science to improve access to affordable credit. There are tens of millions of Americans who deserve access to reasonably priced credit from our nation's banking system, yet are denied access through no fault of their own. We're unique among our fintech peers and that we aim to tackle this problem directly.

有些人質疑，Upstart 是否為了在 IPO 後階段成長，在 2021 年過快轉向向風險較高的借款人放款。但我相信，我們已經完成了我們設定的目標和承諾。 Upstart 的使命一直是利用現代技術和資料科學來改善人們獲得可負擔信貸的管道。數千萬美國人理應從國家銀行體系獲得價格合理的信貸，卻無辜地被拒於門外。我們在金融科技同行中獨樹一幟，我們的目標是直接解決這個問題。

The terms nonprime, near-prime and subprime. These are words the industry invented to describe people that our current systems don't understand. The truth is that the vast majority of these Americans are entirely credit worthy. Upstart's mission is to identify those borrowers and provide them with access to affordable credit, and we haven't wavered from that challenge.

非優質、近優質和次優質這些術語。這些詞是產業發明的，用來描述我們現行體系無法理解的人群。事實上，這些美國人中的絕大多數都完全有信用良好。 Upstart 的使命是識別這些借款人，並為他們提供負擔得起的信貸，我們從未動搖過這項挑戰。

How does growth fit in? We approach our business as a waterfall of priorities in a way analogous to structured credit. Upstart's highest priority, our A bond, if you will, is credit quality. Our goal is to reliably deliver the return the lender or investor expects for a specific allocation of risk. Our B-bond or next highest priority is unit economics or gross profits. We don't strive for loan transactions that lose money for Upstart and generally seek to avoid them.

成長如何融入其中？我們以類似結構化信貸的方式，將業務優先順序劃分成瀑布式結構。 Upstart 的最高優先級，也就是我們的 A 級債券，就是信用品質。我們的目標是在特定風險配置下，可靠地提供貸款人或投資者預期的回報。我們的 B 級債券，或稱次高優先級，是單位經濟效益或毛利。我們不追求那些會為 Upstart 帶來虧損的貸款交易，並且通常會盡量避免這類交易。

And finally, whatever is left over goes to platform transaction growth or residual, so to speak. In truth, growth isn't a specific target for us. It's a plug based on our waterfall of priorities. The reasons for this ordering are clear without strong credit performance and solid unit economics, growth over the long term would be unsustainable.

最後，剩下的部分都用於平台交易成長，或者說剩餘。事實上，成長對我們來說並不是一個特定的目標，而是基於我們優先瀑布模型的插件。這種排序的原因很明顯：如果沒有強勁的信貸業績和穩健的單位經濟效益，長期成長將難以為繼。

To close, I want to acknowledge that we've experienced some setbacks in our business, but our fundamental economic engine is strong. Our risk models are better than ever, and I'm confident that we'll be on the growth path again soon. We're taking decisive action to bring committed capital to Upstart. And to those who say that we should focus on the traditionally prime market, I say that there are plenty of others focused on that. Improving access to credit for all Americans is too important to go ignored and Upstart has the right stuff to get it done. Thank you.

最後，我想承認，我們的業務經歷了一些挫折，但我們的基本經濟引擎仍然強勁。我們的風險模型比以往任何時候都更好，我相信我們很快就會回到成長軌道。我們正在採取果斷行動，為 Upstart 注入承諾資本。對於那些認為我們應該專注於傳統優質市場的人，我想說，還有很多其他人也在關注這一點。改善所有美國人的信貸管道至關重要，不容忽視，而 Upstart 擁有實現這一目標的正確途徑。謝謝。

And now I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q2 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

現在我想把時間交給我們的財務長桑傑，來介紹我們第二季的財務表現和預期。桑傑？

Thank you, Dave, and thanks to everyone for joining. The environment we're operating in has continued to evolve rapidly since our previous call. Industry data shows a general rise in delinquencies across all segments of unsecured credit, disproportionately impacting the higher risk tiers that is comprised a significant component of our borrower base. The impact of this dynamic on the credit performance of Upstart loans can be seen in the supplemental credit performance information that was released today together with our investor materials.

謝謝您，戴夫，也謝謝各位的參與。自上次電話會議以來，我們的營運環境持續快速變化。行業數據顯示，所有無擔保信貸領域的拖欠率普遍上升，對我們借款人群體中佔比較大的高風險層級貸款造成了不成比例的影響。這種動態對 Upstart 貸款信貸表現的影響，可在今天與投資者資料一起發布的補充信貸表現資訊中看到。

The macro uncertainty and the impact of economic stress on consumer delinquencies have led to a decrease in available funding for loans on our platform which has become the operating constraints of the business. While today's results are in line with the preliminary numbers we preannounced on July 7, I will quickly call out the key financial headlines.

宏觀不確定性以及經濟壓力對消費者拖欠率的影響，導致我們平台貸款可用資金減少，這已成為業務營運的限制因素。雖然今天的業績與我們7月7日預先公佈的初步數據一致，但我還是想快速介紹一下主要的財務消息。

On the top line, origination volumes and revenue from fees were both down from last quarter and below our internal expectations, driven primarily by funding constraints in the capital markets. While profitability was also below guidance, we began to systematically improve unit economics in the second half of the quarter and have pivoted to optimizing for in-quarter cash flow generation, which will carry over into our third quarter contribution margins.

營收方面，交易發起量和手續費收入均較上一季下降，且低於我們的內部預期，主要原因是資本市場的融資限制。雖然獲利能力也低於預期，但我們在本季度下半段開始系統性地改善單位經濟效益，並已轉向優化季度現金流生成，這將延續至第三季度的貢獻利潤率。

Following our recent share repurchase authorization, we have repurchased approximately 4.4 million shares of Upstart, totaling $150 million in repurchases. Additionally, we sold a meaningful amount of the loan assets from our balance sheet in Q2 in order to fortify our cash position. With these dynamics in mind, here now is a more detailed summary of our numbers.

繼近期獲得股票回購授權後，我們已回購了約440萬股Upstart股票，回購總額達1.5億美元。此外，我們在第二季出售了資產負債表中相當一部分的貸款資產，以增強現金狀況。考慮到這些動態，以下是我們更詳細的數據摘要。

Net revenues in Q2 came in at $228 million, up 18% year-over-year. Revenue from fees constituted $258 million of that amount representing 113% of overall revenue and up 38% year-over-year but down sequentially 18%. Net interest income was a negative component of net revenue this quarter as we entered into multiple loan sale transactions, some of which incurred a negative fair value impact and as the valuation marks of our remaining loans continue to be negatively impacted by the rising interest rate environment.

第二季淨收入為2.28億美元，年增18%。其中，手續費收入為2.58億美元，佔總營收的113%，年增38%，但季減18%。淨利息收入在本季淨收入中佔比為負值，原因是我們進行了多筆貸款出售交易，其中一些交易對公允價值產生了負面影響，而且我們剩餘貸款的估值持續受到利率上升環境的負面影響。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q2 was approximately 321,000 loans, up 12% year-over-year and representing over 233,000 new borrowers. Average loan size was up 5% over last quarter, largely owing to auto loans representing a higher proportion of the mix. Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing was flat sequentially at 47% and 200 basis points ahead of guidance.

我們平台第二季的貸款交易量約為32.1萬筆，較去年同期成長12%，新增借款人超過23.3萬人。平均貸款規模較上一季成長5%，主要原因是汽車貸款佔比上升。我們的貢獻利潤率（非公認會計準則指標，定義為手續費收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的變動成本）環比持平，為47%，比預期高出200個基點。

Without the inclusion of the fledgling auto loan volume, our contribution margin for core personal lending would have risen to 51%. As we optimize our fees and marketing spend for lower near-term volumes, we expect that unit economics will continue to show meaningful sequential improvement.

如果不計入剛起步的汽車貸款業務，我們核心個人貸款的貢獻利潤率將升至51%。隨著我們優化費用和行銷支出以降低短期貸款額，我們預計單位經濟效益將繼續呈現顯著的環比改善。

Operating expenses were $260 million in Q2, down 5% sequentially. We reduced our sales and marketing by 21% sequentially as we downsized our marketing campaigns to reflect our constrained funding supply.

第二季營運費用為2.6億美元，季減5%。由於資金供應緊張，我們縮減了行銷活動的規模，因此銷售和行銷支出較上季下降了21%。

Engineering and product development grew 14% sequentially and remains our priority area of investment. Although by the end of the quarter, we had slowed down hiring significantly and concentrated most of the remaining hires into key technical roles. Growth in general and administrative spend grew 8% sequentially. Taken together, these components resulted in Q2 GAAP net income of negative $29.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 million contracted 91% Q-on-Q. Adjusted earnings per share for Q2 was $0.01 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 93.3 million.

工程和產品開發環比成長14%，仍然是我們重點投資的領域。儘管到本季末，我們已大幅放緩招聘速度，並將大部分剩餘招聘集中在關鍵技術職位。一般及行政支出較上季成長8%。綜合來看，這些因素導致第二季GAAP淨利為負2,990萬美元。調整後EBITDA為550萬美元，季減91%。第二季調整後每股盈餘為0.01美元，基於稀釋加權平均股數9,330萬股。

We ended the quarter with $790 million in unrestricted cash, mildly up from $758 million in Q1. Our balance of loans at the end of the quarter was $624 million, of which $484 million represented R&D loans, principally in the auto segment. While our balance of core personal loans at $140 million was only marginally down from Q1, we did sell a significant number of the loans that had accumulated on our balance sheet subsequent to the end of Q1, but prior to our earnings call in May.

本季末，我們的非限制性現金餘額為 7.9 億美元，略高於第一季的 7.58 億美元。本季末，我們的貸款餘額為 6.24 億美元，其中 4.84 億美元為研發貸款，主要來自汽車領域。雖然我們的核心個人貸款餘額為 1.4 億美元，僅略低於第一季度，但我們確實出售了第一季度末之後、5 月份財報電話會議之前在資產負債表上累積的大量貸款。

Earlier today, we published some key data regarding the credit performance of Upstart loans. Just to recap a couple of the key points. Our models continue to provide around 5x the amount of risk separation than a credit score, and the statistical accuracy of our model continues to improve. This has not changed. Most vintages from 2021 will underperform their return targets. This volatility comes on the heels of vintages significantly overperforming targets for 12 consecutive quarters. Despite this latest volatility, an investor who invested equally across all Upstart cohorts would expect a 9.8% unlevered gross annualized return.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一些關於 Upstart 貸款信用表現的關鍵數據。這裡僅重述幾個關鍵點。我們的模型繼續提供比信用評分高出約 5 倍的風險分離，並且模型的統計準確性也在不斷提高。這一點沒有改變。 2021 年的大多數貸款將無法達到其回報目標。這種波動性是在連續 12 個季度大幅超出目標表現的年份之後出現的。儘管最近出現了這種波動性，但對所有 Upstart 貸款進行平均投資的投資者預期將獲得 9.8% 的無槓桿年化總回報率。

Notwithstanding the performance of the credit, we must confront the fact that the largely uncommitted nature of our third-party funding has proven inadequate to the task of navigating the current market turbulence. And we have turned our efforts towards building a more resilient funding model over time.

儘管信貸表現良好，但我們必須正視一個事實：我們第三方融資的無承諾性質已證明不足以應對當前的市場動盪。我們已將精力轉向建立更具韌性的融資模式。

Despite not having suffered any adverse loan performance, some banks are moving to limit their overall exposure to unsecured lending. Investors who have earned significant excess returns during the benign cycle over the past few years are now anxious over the state of the economy and wary over the future prospects of less affluent borrowers who have been the most impacted by the termination of the stimulus.

儘管貸款表現並未出現任何不利表現，但一些銀行仍在採取措施限制其無抵押貸款的整體曝險。過去幾年在良性週期中獲得了巨額超額回報的投資者如今對經濟狀況感到焦慮，並對受刺激計劃終止影響最大的較不富裕借款人的未來前景感到擔憂。

Despite significant conservatism in our current underwriting and the prospect of historically high returns, investors have been reluctant to reenter the fray. Consequently, our intention is to significantly increase the fraction of forward committed capital deployed on our platform through partnerships with investors that are comfortable investing through cycles with an eye towards longer-term outcomes and in exchange for predictable future access to yield.

儘管我們目前的核保策略相當保守，且報酬前景堪稱歷史高位，但投資人仍不願再次參與競爭。因此，我們計劃透過與那些願意跨週期投資、著眼於長期收益、並願意以可預測的未來收益為交換條件的投資者合作，大幅提升我們平台上未來承諾資本的配置比例。

As Dave has said, this will not happen overnight. In the interim, we are prepared to be more proactive with our own balance sheet operations if we deem it necessary to provide a level of stability for the business in this transitional period as well as to demonstrate our own confidence in the models to the funding markets. Please note that this does not represent a change in permanent strategy, and we continue to maintain the view that it is not in our long-term interest to run a large balance sheet or to become a bank. However, in the context of the current extenuating circumstances, we will be flexible in determining whether a temporary change in tactics around balance sheet usage would be in the best interest of supporting the business through to its next state.

正如戴夫所說，這並非一朝一夕之功。在此期間，如果我們認為有必要在過渡時期為業務提供一定程度的穩定性，並向融資市場展示我們對這些模型的信心，我們準備好更加積極地開展自身的資產負債表運營。請注意，這並不代表永久性策略的改變，我們仍然堅持認為，經營龐大的資產負債表或成為銀行不符合我們的長遠利益。然而，鑑於目前情況特殊，我們將靈活地判斷暫時改變資產負債表使用策略是否符合支援業務發展到下一個階段的最佳利益。

Given the volatility of the current funding environment and the difficulty in forecasting the timing of changing macro sentiment, we feel it is prudent to limit our guidance for now to the coming quarter and withdraw prior full year guidance. With that, for Q3 of 2022, we are expecting revenues of approximately $170 million, representing a year-over-year contraction of 26%; contribution margin of approximately 59%; net income of approximately negative $42 million; adjusted net income of approximately negative $9 million; adjusted EBITDA of approximately 0 and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 85.5 million shares.

鑑於當前融資環境的波動性以及宏觀情緒變化時機的預測難度，我們認為將目前的業績指引限制在下一季並撤回先前的全年業績指引是明智之舉。因此，我們預計2022年第三季的營收約為1.7億美元，年減26%；貢獻利潤率約為59%；淨利潤約為負4,200萬美元；調整後淨利潤約為負900萬美元；調整後EBITDA約為0，稀釋加權平均股數約為8,550萬股。

Our gratitude and admiration once again to all the folks at Upstart, who are remaining resilient through the choppy waters that we are currently navigating as a company and who remain as focused and with as much conviction as ever about the purpose and opportunity before us.

我們再次向 Upstart 的所有員工表示感謝和欽佩，他們在我們公司目前面臨的波濤洶湧的大海中保持著堅韌，並且對我們面前的目標和機會保持著一如既往的專注和信念。

With that, Dave and I are now happy to open the call to any questions. Operator, back to you.

好了，戴夫和我現在很樂意回答大家的問題。接線員，請接聽。

(Operator Instructions) And we will go first to Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

（操作員指示）我們先聯絡 Atlantic Equities 的 Simon Clinch。

I was wondering, Dave, or Sanjay, if you could talk a little bit more about what -- how you actually go about sort of refocusing your institutional buyer -- investor base to sort of longer-term investors. And I guess how long that might take and a sense of the steps that you need to take to achieve that goal?

戴夫，或者桑傑，能否再多談談你們是如何將機構買家——也就是投資者群體——重新聚焦到長期投資者的？這大概要花多久時間？為了實現這個目標，你們需要採取哪些步驟？

Sure. This is Dave. I'll give a quick answer, and then Sanjay may want to chime in. Sure. So essentially, the nature of our agreements today, by and large, are at-will agreements with the volume that anybody any particular entity is originating or purchasing is decided on a month-by-month basis. And we're talking about instead about structures where there's committed funding over a significant period of time, many months or even years. And really, that's in return in some form for access to yield over that period of time in some form of economics that make sense for those entities.

當然。我是戴夫。我先簡單回答一下，然後桑傑可能會想插話。當然。所以，本質上，我們目前的協議，大體上是隨意協議，任何特定實體發起或購買的數量都是按月決定的。我們討論的是一種在相當長的一段時間內（幾個月甚至幾年）承諾資金的結構。實際上，這以某種形式作為回報，以獲得在這段時間內獲得收益，而這種收益的某種經濟形式對這些實體來說是合理的。

So we don't have more specifics to share than that, other than certainly, I think a lot of marketplace businesses in many different types of industries take actions to secure effectively secure inventory on their platforms one way or another. And we've decided this is just necessary for us. And so we're beginning the steps toward taking -- getting that done.

因此，除了這一點，我們沒有更多細節可以分享。當然，我認為許多不同產業的市場企業都會採取行動，以各種方式有效保障其平台上的庫存安全。我們認為這對我們來說是必要的。因此，我們正在開始採取措施，以實現這一目標。

Yes. I'll just add, Dave. This is Sanjay. I think that we have demonstrated and we'll be able to demonstrate certainly as we go through this cycle, pretty attractive long-term yields for anyone who's willing to hold an investor cycle and Dave cited some of those numbers and we've got some of those in the releases we provided. And so I think there's a class of capital provider out there for whom access to that would be attractive. And those are sort of more arrangements that will take a while to put into place.

是的。我補充一下，戴夫。我是桑傑。我認為我們已經證明，隨著我們經歷這個週期，我們肯定能夠證明，對於任何願意持有投資者周期的人來說，長期收益率都相當誘人。戴夫引用了一些數據，我們在發布的新聞稿中也有一些數據。所以我認為有一類資本提供者，他們獲得這些收益是有吸引力的。這些安排還需要一段時間才能落實。

But I think predominantly, what we have today are capital providers who are vintage by vintage and in some sense, may depend on either leverage or liquidity for the ABS markets, which creates more volatility. So I think now that we have some proof points which demonstrate what yield looks like through a cycle, we will use that to enter into negotiations and arrangements with, one is that are more of the style of wanting predictable stability in terms of access to yield.

但我認為，目前我們的主要資金提供者是逐年遞增的，從某種意義上說，他們可能依賴資產支持證券市場的槓桿率或流動性，從而加劇了波動性。所以，我認為，既然我們掌握了一些證據，能夠說明收益率在一個週期內的表現，我們將利用這些證據與投資者進行談判和安排，其中一方更傾向於在收益率獲取方面保持可預測的穩定性。

And so I think that's all we really have to share at this time. As Dave said, these aren't going to happen overnight. They're pretty complex relationships, but I think we're already convicted that, that's the direction that will provide stability for our platform to get to the next level of volume.

所以我想這就是我們目前真正要分享的全部內容。正如戴夫所說，這些不會一蹴可幾。它們之間的關係相當複雜，但我認為我們已經確信，這是一個能夠為我們的平台提供穩定性，並使其達到更高水平的方向。

Okay. All right. That's useful. And just as a follow-up, Dave, I think in your opening comments, you mentioned your view that we're heading for a significant slowdown in the near-term recession in the next 7 months. And I guess, a slower economic growth outlook beyond fiscal '23. And I was wondering if you could expand on your thoughts there and I guess, sort of what you're seeing and what gives you that much weaker outlook than perhaps I've heard from others.

好的。好的。這很有用。接下來，戴夫，我想在你開場白中提到，你認為未來7個月內，短期經濟衰退將顯著放緩。而且我估計，2023財年之後的經濟成長前景也將放緩。我想，你能否進一步闡述你的想法，以及你所看到的情況，是什麼讓你的前景比我從其他人那裡聽到的要弱得多。

Yes, sure, Dave. I wouldn't say that it's my outlook per se. I'm definitely not a macro forecaster and Upstart does not try to hold limited skills, kind of a crystal ball about the next phases in the economy. What I was trying to state, though, is that we try to build in what you would think of as some form of market consensus where the market thinks the economy is going to go with a degree of conservatism sufficient for banks and investors and credit unions, et cetera, to feel comfortable in the platform.

是的，當然，戴夫。我不會說這是我的觀點本身。我絕對不是宏觀預測者，Upstart 也不會試圖掌握有限的技能，就像一個預測經濟下一階段的水晶球。我想說的是，我們試圖建立某種形式的市場共識，即市場認為經濟將以一定程度的保守性運行，足以讓銀行、投資者、信用合作社等在這個平台上感到安心。

So we necessarily take what you might consider a conservative viewpoint on them, only because it's a good starting point for those who are on the platform with capital at risk. It doesn't necessarily mean it's my personal outlook or Upstart's personal outlook It really is just trying to reflect a reasonable and a conservative take on where the economy could be in the next couple of years.

因此，我們必然會採取一些你可能認為比較保守的觀點，因為這對於那些在平台上持有高風險資金的人來說是一個很好的起點。這並不一定意味著這是我的個人觀點或 Upstart 的個人觀點，它只是試圖反映出對未來幾年經濟趨勢的合理且保守的看法。

And we'll go next to Mike NG of Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們來談談高盛的 Mike NG。

I just have to 2. First, could you talk a little bit more about the fee revenue as a percentage of originations. It's quite strong in the quarter. I was just wondering if there are any specific drivers that led to that increase, whether those are price increases or the loan mix? And then second, just on the guidance for the third quarter for $170 million of revenue. Could you just talk a little bit about the mix between fee revenue and net interest income, and any notable points around fair value adjustments?

我只想問2個問題。首先，能否再多談談手續費收入佔貸款發放額的百分比。本季的手續費營收成長相當強勁。我想知道是否有任何具體的驅動因素導致了這一增長，是價格上漲還是貸款結構的變化？其次，關於第三季1.7億美元的營收預期。您能否談談手續費收入和淨利息收入的組成，以及在公允價值調整方面有哪些值得注意的地方？

Sure. Michael, this is Sanjay. Sure. On the first question, can I presume you're sort of talking about take rates. When you say strength, you're talking about -- Okay. Yes, I mean, I think it's as simple as -- and I think we've signaled this in the past. We've typically been optimizing for not interim cash production, but sort of long-term volume and how we price.

當然。邁克爾，我是桑傑。好的。關於第一個問題，我可以假設您指的是成交率嗎？您說的強度是指——好的。是的，我的意思是，我認為這很簡單——而且我認為我們過去也暗示過這一點。我們通常優化的不是短期現金產出，而是長期的產量和定價方式。

And so our take rates have generally always been at a level where we are able to produce more volume that will lead to model acceleration and learning and will lead to future value in the form of repeat loans. And obviously, in a situation like we're in today, where we are funding constrained and we're much more focused on in-quarter cash generation. We've sort of set our fees at a more optimal level, if you will. And so we've priced them higher, and that has the effect of creating a more resilient in quarter P&L. And so that's, I would say, is an artifact of how we're managing the business through the choppiness that we're experiencing in the market.

因此，我們的收費率通常一直處於一個能夠讓我們產生更多貸款量的水平，這將加速模型的學習和發展，並以重複貸款的形式創造未來價值。顯然，在像我們今天這樣資金緊張、更注重季度現金流的情況下，我們把費用設定在更優化的水平。因此，我們提高了收費標準，這有助於提升季度損益表的韌性。我想說，這是我們在市場波動中管理業務的成果。

And the second question, really, was around the guidance and fair value in particular, I believe. I mean I think most of our revenue is an expression of transaction volume and fee revenue. There still is some downside in terms of fair value. We disclosed in our investor materials, the size of the balance sheet we're holding, which is pretty much on par with last quarter. And to the extent there's more interest rate exposure, if the rates continue to rise, those will necessarily depress asset values, create some fair value exposure but we're not making, I would say, large assumptions one way or the other about macro variables. We're really, I guess, trying to express the direction of transaction volume and the consequence of our revenue.

第二個問題，實際上，我認為與指引和公允價值有關。我的意思是，我認為我們的大部分收入都反映在交易量和手續費收入上。公允價值方面仍存在一些下行空間。我們在投資者資料中揭露了我們持有的資產負債表規模，與上一季基本持平。如果利率敞口增加，利率繼續上升必然會壓低資產價值，造成一些公允價值敞口，但我們不會對宏觀變數做出任何大的假設。我想，我們實際上是在試圖表達交易量的走向以及收入的後果。

And we'll go next to Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

接下來我們來談談 JMP Securities 的 Andrew Boone。

As we think about you moving more loans on to the balance sheet, can you help us understand the guardrails that you're thinking about? I understood it's still early here, but how do we think about just what's the potential for using the balance sheet? And then as you talked about lenders and just the attractiveness of yields that are available right now, can you talk about just how you're educating your partners to be able to step back in? How can you proactively have them come back?

當我們考慮將更多貸款轉移到資產負債表時，您能否幫助我們理解您正在考慮的護欄？我知道現在還為時過早，但我們該如何看待資產負債表的潛力呢？然後，正如您談到貸款機構以及目前收益率的吸引力時，您能否談談您是如何教育您的合作夥伴，讓他們能夠重新參與的？您如何主動讓他們回歸？

Andrew, this is Dave. On the balance sheet usage, I would just say, first of all, we will most certainly be prudent in usage of our cash in any way. As Sanjay said earlier, it is not our intention to become a large balance sheet lender whatsoever. Our long-term strategy hasn't changed. We aren't becoming a bank. But certainly, we see ourselves in a transitional phase where we are recognizing the need for permanent or more committed capital on the platform.

安德魯，我是戴夫。關於資產負債表的使用，我首先想說的是，我們絕對會謹慎使用現金。正如桑傑之前所說，我們無意成為一家大型資產負債表貸款機構。我們的長期策略沒有改變。我們不會成為一家銀行。但可以肯定的是，我們正處於過渡階段，我們意識到平台上需要永久的或更多的投入資金。

And as a bridge to that, we want to have the freedom to do the right things at the right time to get from here to there. It doesn't really change our overall philosophy, but we -- nor do we think it's great at this time to have sort of a litmus test of not using our balance sheet whatsoever with a lot of cash in our balance sheet, and we want to use it to the advantage of the business over the long haul.

作為實現這一目標的橋樑，我們希望擁有在正確的時間做正確事情的自由，從而實現從現在到未來的目標。這實際上不會改變我們的整體理念，但我們也不認為，在資產負債表上有大量現金的情況下，用某種試金石來檢驗資產負債表是否合適，我們希望長期利用它來為企業帶來優勢。

So but for sure, we're a company that has always been very much capital efficient as a private company, what we raised very modestly compared to others how we used it. We've been profitable most of our time as a public company. So I think we have the genetics of the company that likes to be cash efficient, and we certainly will do nothing to put our operational capacity at risk or our business at risk with our balance sheet irrespective of whether or not we choose to use some of it within the marketplace.

所以，可以肯定的是，作為一家私人公司，我們一直以來都保持著非常高的資本效率。與其他公司相比，我們籌集的資金非常少。作為上市公司，我們大部分時間都保持獲利。所以我認為我們秉承了追求現金效率的公司的基因，無論我們是否選擇在市場上使用部分資金，我們都不會做任何可能危及我們營運能力或業務的事情，也不會讓資產負債表面臨風險。

Sanjay, do you have anything to add to that?

Sanjay，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I mean, I guess, sure, just -- Andrew, I'll just reiterate. It's still our intention in the long term to be a platform that decisions third-party capital. We don't want to be in the business of being a balance sheet. Now as you've seen, we're sort of signaling a contraction in our guidance. We recognize that we need less (inaudible) funding, more committed funding and they get us through to that point.

是的。我的意思是，我想，當然，只是——安德魯，我再重申。我們的長期目標仍然是成為一個第三方資本決策平台。我們不想成為一張資產負債表。正如你所看到的，我們正在暗示我們的業績指引將會收縮。我們意識到我們需要更少的（聽不清楚）資金，更多的承諾資金，他們幫助我們實現了這個目標。

I think what we're expressing is not so much an intention as a need for flexibility in making that transition. But as Dave said, we've always been very, very careful stewards of the capital that are on our balance sheet. We've always run a very lean company. So this is really more about just making sure we have what's in maybe on a stability of model in order to make that transition.

我認為我們表達的與其說是一種意圖，不如說是在進行這種轉變時需要靈活性。但正如戴夫所說，我們一直非常非常謹慎地管理資產負債表上的資本。我們一直經營著一家非常精簡的公司。所以，這實際上更多的是為了確保我們擁有穩定的模型，以便進行這種轉變。

And then the second question you asked is how are we engaging the capital markets and the funding markets in order to provide them miscomfort. And there's a couple of ways. I mean, certainly, the amount of information that we've provided to the broader public in the form of sort of FAQs and the blog posts and the additional investor information we've released today, we have a much deeper level of information that we take to the funding markets. And in fact, in the same way that we hold sort of a conference broadcast in order to discuss business results with the equity markets, we're going to have a similar construct, with the funding markets.

您提出的第二個問題是，我們如何與資本市場和融資市場互動，讓它們感到不安。方法有很多。我的意思是，我們今天以常見問題解答、博客文章和其他投資者信息等形式向廣大公眾提供了大量信息，而我們向融資市場提供的則要深層次得多。事實上，就像我們舉辦某種形式的會議直播來與股票市場討論業務成果一樣，我們也將採取類似的方式與融資市場溝通。

And so we do have, I think, as much or more information about anybody as the current direction of delinquencies in very real time and we're going to do our best to express that. And then part of this goes back to your question on balance sheet in some sense that the markets would like a signal of confidence in the way that the loans are currently being priced and in the macro assumptions that Dave talked about and using our balance sheet to some extent as a signal, I think, can provide a lot of comfort to the funding market. So that's something that's not lost on us given the asymmetry of information that we have around how the models are calibrated and how the loans are currently trending.

所以，我認為，我們掌握的資訊與任何人的即時違約趨勢一樣多，甚至更多，我們會盡力傳達這一點。這部分可以追溯到你關於資產負債表的問題，某種程度上，市場希望看到對當前貸款定價方式以及戴夫提到的宏觀假設的信心信號。我認為，在某種程度上，將我們的資產負債表作為訊號，可以為融資市場帶來很大的安慰。因此，考慮到我們在模型校準方式和貸款當前趨勢方面存在的資訊不對稱，我們不會忽略這一點。

We'll go next to Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

接下來我們將與巴克萊銀行一起參觀拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩勒 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

Can you give us some color on what you're seeing most recently in the business quarter-to-date in July?

您能否向我們介紹一下七月份迄今為止本季業務的最新情況？

Ramsey, this is Sanjay. Are you referring to any particular aspect of the business, meaning the financials, the sort of volume, the credit performance or just a general sort of?

拉姆齊，我是桑傑。您指的是業務的具體面嗎？是財務狀況、交易量、信貸表現，還是一般情況？

Kind of -- it was quite general.

有點——相當普遍。

Okay. I mean I think the best expression of what we're seeing to date in the business is, I said, is sort of reflected in our guidance, if you will. So I think that, as we've said, there's a continuing contraction on the top line, which is evident to anyone. And I think that's probably the headline for what we're managing through right now.

好的。我的意思是，我認為我們迄今為止在業務中看到的情況，最好地體現在我們的業績指引中，如果你願意這麼說的話。所以我認為，正如我們之前所說，營收持續萎縮，這是顯而易見的。我認為這很可能就是我們目前正在應對的局面。

And would you characterize that as having gone down and you're sort of seeing some stability in performance at this point? Or is it still something where you have relatively limited visibility as trends are sort of maybe unstable and still sort of on the move?

您認為這種情況已經有所下降，目前來看業績有穩定嗎？還是說，由於趨勢可能不穩定，您目前對這種情況的預見性仍然有限？

And when you say performance trends, are you referring to credit performance or...

當您說績效趨勢時，您指的是信用績效還是…

I am referring to credit performance, but also, I guess, in addition, perhaps like the demand environment?

我指的是信用表現，但我想，此外，也許還有需求環境？

I don't think there's too much to comment on with respect to the demand environment outside of what we're signaling with guidance. I think that's probably the best reflection we have of it.

除了我們在指引中暗示的內容外，我認為關於需求環境沒有太多可評論的。我認為這或許就是我們對需求環境的最佳反映。

With respect to credit trends, I would say that the macro environment remains very fluid, obviously, and it's something that I think is changing month by month. And so I would characterize that as continuing fluidity. I would say with respect to how our model is sort of consuming and predicting the future, I think there's been significant recalibrations in our model since the beginning of this year. So when you therefore look at how the loans are performing against how they're being priced, I think there's pretty big changes in those curves. Maybe starting as sort of recently as January, February.

關於信貸趨勢，我認為宏觀環境顯然仍然非常不穩定，而且我認為它每個月都在變化。因此，我將其描述為持續的流動性。關於我們的模型如何消化和預測未來，我認為自今年年初以來，我們的模型已經進行了重大的重新校準。因此，當你觀察貸款的表現與其定價時，我認為這些曲線發生了相當大的變化。可能從最近的一月或二月就開始了。

And so due to that, I think that the model has very much recalibrated to where the macro is. And as Dave said, in terms of how it's thinking about the future, there's significant conservatism and the assumptions around what will happen in the macro. And we don't have any specific knowledge or ability to forecast the macro than you or anyone else has. But with what we have and the trends we're seeing, I think that you could say that the assumptions are very conservative.

因此，我認為該模型已經根據宏觀經濟的現狀進行了很大程度的重新調整。正如戴夫所說，就其對未來的思考而言，存在著明顯的保守性，以及對宏觀經濟未來走向的假設。我們並不像您或其他人那樣擁有預測宏觀經濟的具體知識或能力。但就我們現有的情況和我們所看到的趨勢而言，我認為可以說這些假設非常保守。

And we'll move on to our next question from Pete Christiansen with Citi.

我們將繼續回答花旗銀行的 Pete Christiansen 提出的下一個問題。

To Dave, as it relates to the relationship with the CFPB, can you just walk through some of the changes that have been there? I know there's a bunch of nuances. But if you can give your take of how that relationship is moving? And then my second question as it relates to the 3Q guide, are there any assumptions that there'll be ABS issuance in the quarter?

Dave，關於與消費者金融保護局（CFPB）的關係，您能否簡單介紹目前發生的一些變化？我知道這其中有很多細微差別。但您能否談談您對這種關係發展的看法？我的第二個問題與第三季指南有關，是否有任何假設認為本季將發行資產支持證券（ABS）？

Sure. Thanks, Pete. I'll take the first question. I'll let Sanjay handle the second one. We continue to have what we consider to be a great relationship with the CFPB. We've had that relationship since the very early days of the company through 3 different administrations. So we have a lot of history with them. We consider it constructive. We've always been very transparent and forthright with them.

當然。謝謝，Pete。我來回答第一個問題。第二個問題交給Sanjay。我們與消費者金融保護局（CFPB）一直保持著良好的關係。這種關係從公司成立之初就已建立，經歷了三屆政府的領導。所以我們與他們有著深厚的合作歷史。我們認為這種合作富有建設性。我們一直以來對他們都非常透明和坦誠。

As many know, we had this form of a no action letter agreement that started way back in 2017, renewed in 2022. And a few months back, we requested to terminated early, really in the sense that it was mission accomplished. It had done what we hoped in terms of getting a lot of feedback from the CFPB on how to properly test for fairness in sort of modern-lending model. And so through a lot of period of times in the years, we built what we consider to be very sophisticated forms of testing that we do on behalf of all of our bank partners.

眾所周知，我們早在2017年就簽訂了這種形式的「不採取行動函」協議，並於2022年續約。幾個月前，我們請求提前終止協議，實際上意味著我們的任務已經完成。它達到了我們的預期，從消費者金融保護局（CFPB）獲得了大量關於如何在現代貸款模式中正確測試公平性的回饋。因此，多年來，我們經過長時間的努力，建構了我們認為非常複雜的測試形式，並代表所有銀行合作夥伴進行測試。

So we have a continued strong relationship with CFPB. That structure of no action letters, et cetera, is something that CFPB internally decided they want to move away from. So I think that's okay by us as we said, we felt in the early days of our existence and before we had really refined how to do fairness testing right. It was very useful. But today, we continue to believe we have state-of-the-art fairness testing. We do that reliably on behalf of all of our lending partners, and we do continue to have open communication with CFPB and would expect to do so in the future as well.

因此，我們與消費者金融保護局 (CFPB) 一直保持著密切的合作關係。 CFPB 內部決定要摒棄那種「不採取行動函」之類的做法。所以我認為這對我們來說沒問題，正如我們所說，在我們成立初期，以及在真正完善如何正確進行公平測試之前，我們認為它非常有用。但如今，我們仍然相信我們擁有最先進的公平測試方法。我們代表所有貸款合作夥伴可靠地進行公平測試，並且我們確實繼續與 CFPB 保持開放的溝通，並希望在未來也能如此。

Pete, this is Sanjay. To your second question, there's no explicit assumptions we're making with respect to ABS issuance in our guidance. And we continue to issue regularly, obviously, the execution in the market right now is quite volatile. But we don't have an explicit assumption on what that looks like or dependency on it.

皮特，我是桑傑。關於你的第二個問題，我們的指引中沒有關於ABS發行的明確假設。我們繼續定期發行，顯然，目前市場的執行情況相當不穩定。但我們對發行情況或對發行的依賴程度沒有明確的假設。

And we will go next to Arvind Ramnani with Piper Sandler.

接下來我們將與 Piper Sandler 一起採訪 Arvind Ramnani。

Just a couple of questions. As you're deciding to use your own balance sheet or use your banking partners or some of your loans, what are some of the trigger points you will use to kind of make that determination?

我只想問幾個問題。當您決定使用自己的資產負債表、銀行夥伴或部分貸款時，您會考慮哪些觸發點來做出這樣的決定？

Arvind, this is Dave. Let's just say, I mean, we don't have specific trigger points per se. What we just want to really have is flexibility. I think being able to transition from one state of our funding supply to another is one we want to make sure go smoothly and with some confidence and just in getting from here to there in a way that's not disruptive to our partners, to our employees, to anything else.

Arvind，我是 Dave。這麼說吧，我們本身並沒有特定的觸發點。我們真正想要的是靈活性。我認為，我們希望能夠順利、自信地從一種資金供應狀態過渡到另一種狀態，並且以一種不會幹擾我們合作夥伴、員工或其他任何事物的方式。

So we don't have any definitive trigger points other than we absolutely intend to be cautious and prudent with the use of our cash. We are confident that there is real profits available on our platform today. So for that sort of basic reason that makes sense for us to do so. But it is not our goal to build a giant balance sheet, and then certainly not our intention over time is to sort of switch toward that form of the business.

所以，除了我們絕對打算謹慎使用現金之外，我們沒有任何明確的觸發點。我們相信，目前我們的平台能夠帶來真正的利潤。因此，出於這種基本原因，我們這樣做是有道理的。但我們的目標並非打造龐大的資產負債表，當然，我們也不會隨著時間的推移而轉向這種業務模式。

We do believe that it makes most sense for us, for our employees, for our shareholders, for all of our partners to have some flexibility in how we navigate through a pretty unique economic time that we are sitting in today.

我們確實相信，對於我們自己、對於我們的員工、對於我們的股東、對於我們所有的合作夥伴來說，在我們如何度過當今非常獨特的經濟時期時擁有一定的靈活性是最有意義的。

Yes. That's helpful. And is that something that you will sort of plan to communicate to investors as you look to expand the balance sheet? Or is it kind of going to be part of the regularly scheduled earnings calls, if you plan to go that route?

是的，這很有幫助。當您考慮擴大資產負債表時，您是否計劃與投資者溝通這一點？或者，如果您打算這樣做，這會成為定期財報電話會議的一部分嗎？

This is Sanjay. I think it will make a component of our regular communications with the market. I don't necessarily foresee anything that's so extraordinary that would require an interim communication. But if there is, we'll certainly make it.

我是桑傑。我認為這將成為我們與市場定期溝通的一部分。我預計不會有需要臨時溝通的特殊情況。但如果有的話，我們肯定會進行溝通。

Just as an aside, I don't know if you've seen it, but we are sort of breaking out the balance sheet and the exact components of it in the investor materials now.

順便說一句，我不知道您是否已經看到過，但我們現在正在投資者資料中列出資產負債表及其具體組成部分。

Yes. Yes. I did see that. And then just one of the things that you talked about certainly was how you continue to see your models better equipped to price loans. And I know in prior earnings calls, you've talked about some banks preferring to you Upstart versus like a FICO score.

是的，是的。我確實看到了。然後，你們談到的一件事當然是，你們如何繼續看到您們的模型更好地為貸款定價。我知道在之前的財報電話會議上，您提到過，有些銀行更喜歡Upstart，而不是FICO評分。

But are you seeing similar validation through your partners that, that may sort of ease up the funding sources in terms of like sort of really validating that your models are better to price loans and to shift volume your way?

但是，您是否從合作夥伴那裡看到了類似的驗證，這可能會在某種程度上簡化資​​金來源，就像真正驗證您的模型更適合為貸款定價並按您的方式轉移交易量一樣？

Well, Arvind, one of the things that we've kind of tried to make is pretty clear is that the 70-plus banks and credit unions who tend to originate and hold the primary end of the credit have all done really well through all parts of the cycle, if you will, and have actually performed at or above expectations. So I don't think we necessarily need any more than that. Some of them have stated it publicly, and we can see it in the data, and I've shared the aggregate data.

嗯，Arvind，我們一直試圖明確指出的一點是，70多家銀行和信用合作社，它們往往負責發放和持有主要信貸，在整個週期的各個階段，它們都表現得非常好，實際上已經達到或超出了預期。所以我認為我們不需要再增加更多了。其中一些銀行和信用合作社已經公開表示了這一點，我們可以在數據中看到，我也已經分享了匯總數據。

So I think that that's all a very good thing. But I think a lot of the issue out there really is about what may happen in the next year or 2 years. And everybody has the right to have a different opinion about that and take actions based on that opinion. So that's part of, of course, the challenge is -- it's about the future, not about exactly what's going on in the last year or 2 years.

所以我認為這都是非常好的事情。但我認為很多問題其實是關乎未來一兩年可能會發生的事情。每個人都有權對此持有不同的看法，並基於這種看法採取行動。所以，這當然是挑戰的一部分——它關乎未來，而不是過去一兩年究竟發生了什麼事。

And in that sense, that's why we have sort of said we want to move toward investor relationships that have a long-term approach across through-cycle approach toward investing, and that will be in the end, lead to a much stronger platform for Upstart.

從這個意義上講，這就是為什麼我們說過，我們希望與投資者建立一種長期的、貫穿整個投資週期的關係，最終，這將為 Upstart 帶來一個更強大的平台。

We'll go to our next question from Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

我們將討論史蒂芬斯的文森特凱恩蒂克 (Vincent Caintic) 提出的下一個問題。

I have 2. First question, so on the balance sheet usage. So I appreciate your comments on that. And if you could talk about your balance sheet strength. So you've got over $900 million in cash. And I guess if you were to leverage that, conservative leverage, maybe you could do $2 billion to $3 billion of originations to support the business in the interim. So I'm just wondering if you can maybe talk about some of the guardrails or sort of how you're thinking about the balance sheet usage.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於資產負債表的使用。我很感謝你對此的評論。可以談談你們的資產負債表實力嗎？你們有超過9億美元的現金。我想，如果你們能利用這些現金，保守估計，或許可以發行20億到30億美元的債券來支持這段時間的業務。所以，我想你能不能談談一些“護欄”，或者說，你們是如何看待資產負債表所使用的。

And then relatedly, I think you spoke about in the prior press release about selling some of the loans that were on the balance sheet. If you could talk about how that performed. I see there's still about $600 million this quarter. How was the -- how did that go? And what was the, I guess, the par value?

然後，我想您在先前的新聞稿中提到了出售資產負債表上部分貸款。能談談這部分貸款的執行情況嗎？我看到本季還有大約6億美元。情況怎麼樣？票面價值是多少？

Vin, this is Sanjay. So just to maybe put some parameters on our balance sheet. That's correct. We have sort of the $900 million in restricted and unrestricted cash. I would say we have about probably $400 million of loan equity on the balance sheet and about $600 million of assets. So maybe about $200 million of that is financed. That will -- we don't have an intention of getting into large amounts of financed loans. So numbers that you alluded to on your -- and I don't think it would be anything approaching that. I think it would be much more modest.

Vin，我是Sanjay。我想先簡單介紹一下我們的資產負債表。沒錯。我們大概有9億美元的限制性現金和非限制性現金。資產負債表上大概有4億美元的貸款權益，以及約6億美元的資產。其中約2億美元是融資貸款。我們無意大量融資貸款。所以，你提到的數字，我認為不會接近這個數字。我認為會更保守一些。

And this is an environment which (inaudible) average and candidly, it's not readily available these days at reasonable prices anyway. So I think of our loan balance sheet sort of flexibility has been denoted in values of maybe a couple of hundred million dollars.

坦白說，現在這種環境（聽不清楚）普遍，而且價格合理，不容易取得。所以我認為，我們貸款資產負債表的靈活性可能反映在數億美元的價值上。

With respect to loan transactions, I would say transactions, like the main force of gravity on those is what's going on with rates in the environment as you're transacting. In most of the transactions we've had have been older vintages, so vintages that have accumulated maybe in Q1 of this year and 6 months later, interest rates have gone up. And so to the extent that they have executed below par and we've indicated that, that has created some of the negative fair value pressure in our P&L. It's really a function of the fact that some of the more seasoned loans have just been impacted by the extreme environment this year.

關於貸款交易，我想說，交易的主要影響因素是交易環境中利率的變動。我們處理的大多數交易都是較舊的，所以這些交易可能在今年第一季和六個月後累積起來，利率已經上升。因此，它們的執行情況低於票面價值（我們已經指出了這一點），這給我們的損益表帶來了一些負面的公允價值壓力。這實際上是因為一些較老的貸款剛剛受到了今年極端環境的影響。

Okay. I appreciate it. And one question, just following up on guidance. Just if you could talk about. So the $170 million in revenues, if maybe you can talk about the cadence of that? Like are you seeing an improving performance as we go through the quarter. And on the contribution margin. So I'm calculating 59%. So a nice expansion there. Just wondering what would be driving that maybe less marketing expense or more efficiency, if you could just talk about that.

好的，非常感謝。還有一個問題，是關於績效指引的後續跟進。能否談談1.7億美元的營收？能否談談這個季度的節奏？隨著本季的推進，業績表現是否有所改善？貢獻利潤率方面，我計算的是59%。這是一個不錯的增長。我想知道是什麼推動了行銷費用的減少或效率的提高，能否談談？

Sure. Yes. I guess in terms of the guidance, we're not really telegraphing any directionality. I would say things are volatile right now. And so that's more of a level than a trend, if you will. With respect to the contribution margins, yes, I mean it's sort of a bit what we referenced earlier, which is when we're in a period of contraction like this, we optimize for in-quarter cash generation. And candidly, it's one of the important economic characteristics of the business, which is we can -- we're essentially suffering or sort of telegraphing a roughly 50% contraction between the forward guidance and what we did last -- or in Q1, and yet we can weather that with still guiding to breakeven EBITDA.

當然。是的。我想就業績效指引而言，我們並沒有真正傳達任何方向性。我想說現在的情況很不穩定。所以，如果你願意這麼說，這更像是一個水平，而不是趨勢。至於貢獻利潤率，是的，我的意思是，這有點像我們之前提到的，當我們處於像這樣的收縮期時，我們會優化季度現金流。坦白說，這是公司重要的經濟特徵之一，也就是說，我們實際上正在經歷，或者說，在前瞻性指引和我們上一季度的業績之間，或者在第一季度，我們實際上正在經歷，或者說，在某種程度上，我們傳達了大約50%的收縮，但我們仍然可以承受，並仍然實現盈虧平衡的EBITDA。

And the reason is because we have quite a bit of control in terms of our ability to set fees. We tend to be inelastic and below optimal fee levels in normal times, and so we can raise them to buffer volume contractions. And as you said, when we have less funding availability, our marketing programs, we tend to sort of keep the more efficient ones and discard the more experimental ones. So as a result, our take rates go up, our acquisition costs tend to go down and create some margin expansion, which in some sense tends to push against the volume contraction, and it allows us to be somewhat resilient as a business model.

原因在於我們在收費標準方面擁有相當大的控制權。在正常情況下，我們的收費標準往往缺乏彈性，低於最佳水平，因此我們可以提高收費標準來緩衝交易量萎縮。正如您所說，當我們的資金和行銷項目減少時，我們傾向於保留那些更有效率的項目，並放棄那些更具實驗性的項目。因此，我們的佣金率會上升，客戶獲取成本會下降，利潤率也會有所提升，這在某種意義上可以抵消交易量萎縮的影響，也讓我們的商業模式更具韌性。

And we'll go next to Jim Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們來談談摩根士丹利的 Jim Faucette。

Thanks for all the detail and supplemental information. I'm wondering, when we look at kind of your expected returns on by quarter, et cetera, is that you're showing that you expect a pretty significant improvement on the cohort from Q1 '22 versus Q3 and Q4, even though the total -- or the target gross return is similar or even a little bit lower. Can you talk a little bit about the changes that were made for that Q1 '22 and that are driving your expected return higher versus what was being done in the second half of last year?

感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊和補充資訊。我想知道，當我們查看您按季度等劃分的預期回報時，您是否表明您預計2022年第一季度的業績將較第三季度和第四季度有顯著改善，儘管總體——或者說目標毛回報率——與去年下半年相比相似甚至略低。您能否談談針對2022年第一季所做的調整，以及這些調整如何推動您的預期報酬率高於去年下半年的預期報酬率？

Jim, this is Sanjay. Sure. I mean, the simple version is you're seeing the model recalibrating to the changing environment. And in particular, I think starting in probably Q3 of 2021, the delinquency trends in the industry started to rise. And it's been disproportionately, I'd say, born by the, I would say, the less affluent borrowers, if you will. And so our models observe that and react to it and change pricing as that is happening.

吉姆，我是桑傑。好的。簡單來說，你會看到模型根據不斷變化的環境進行重新調整。具體來說，我認為從2021年第三季開始，該行業的拖欠率趨勢開始上升。而且，我認為這種拖欠主要由那些不太富裕的借款人造成。因此，我們的模型會觀察到這種情況，並做出反應，從而調整定價。

And so in some sense, because that trend had happened between Q3 of '21 and early this year, maybe, call it, Q1 or Q2 of this year, our model has been reacting to that, adjusting, recalibrating. And on top of that, we do what you might think of as a manual overlay, which is we have to make some estimate of what we think the future macro holds because that's not something that's in the training data for our machines.

從某種意義上說，由於這種趨勢發生在2021年第三季到今年年初，或許是今年第一季或第二季之間，我們的模型一直在對此做出反應、調整和重新校準。除此之外，我們還會進行一些你可能認為是手動疊加的操作，也就是說，我們必須對未來宏觀經濟的走勢進行一些預估，因為這些並不包含在我們機器的訓練資料中。

And so in addition to the model we're calibrating to loss trends as they change, we are making more conservative forward predictions what the macro will sort of do in the future. And we're to the point now where I would say our macro accommodation is fairly conservative in terms of what we're expecting to happen or maybe expecting it the wrong way, we're prepared to happen in the macro given inflation and unemployment, et cetera.

因此，除了根據不斷變化的損失趨勢調整模型外，我們還對宏觀經濟未來的走向進行了更保守的預測。現在的情況是，我認為我們的宏觀寬鬆政策在預期結果方面相當保守，或者說，我們的預期可能存在偏差，但考慮到通貨膨脹、失業率等因素，我們已做好應對宏觀經濟變化的準備。

And so those are really the 2 variables that are changing. It's the model's estimate of loss depending as a function of the changing actuals and it's our forward prediction of how to prepare for macro -- continued macro volatility?

所以，這實際上是兩個正在變化的變數。一個是模型對損失的估計，該估計取決於不斷變化的實際情況，另一個是我們對如何應對宏觀經濟——持續的宏觀波動——的前瞻性預測。

Got it. And then when you talk about looking to add committed capital and expanding that range of partnerships and agreements. What's your expectation for what that's going to do on cost of capital and what you would need to do, if anything? And if there is an impact, what you would need to do around fees and those kinds of things? Just trying to figure out like what you may have to give up in order to achieve that longer, better or stickier capital, I guess?

明白了。然後，當您談到尋求增加承諾資本並擴大合作夥伴關係和協議範圍時，您預計這會對資本成本產生什麼影響？如果有的話，您需要做什麼？如果有影響，您需要在費用等方面做些什麼？我猜，您只是想弄清楚，為了實現更長久、更好或更持久的資本，您可能需要放棄什麼？

Yes, it's a great question, James. I would say that -- on the one hand, it will make notionally -- certainly to a capital provider who's committing capital forward, there's cost for that. I think it will make capital on the margin more expensive in good times, but maybe on the margin less expensive in times like now because they're investing through the full cycle.

是的，詹姆斯，這個問題問得很好。我想說的是——一方面，理論上——對於提前投入資金的資本提供者來說，這當然是有成本的。我認為，在經濟景氣時期，這會使邊際資本成本更高，但在像現在這樣的時期，邊際資本成本可能會更低，因為他們投資的是整個週期。

And the other variable is that as we sort of talked about in some of the other questions, we are quite margin rich. And so we ourselves can trade off economics in the good times or economics in the choppier periods in the next economic cycle such that the investor is whole, and we're creating more stability for the platform. So I think to the extent the committed capital is more expensive in the benign period, we can offset that through our own business model and then make it up when there are down cycles as they inevitably will be.

另一個變數是，正如我們在其他一些問題中提到的，我們的利潤率相當高。因此，我們可以在下一個經濟週期中，在經濟景氣時期和經濟波動時期進行權衡，以確保投資者的利益，同時我們也在為平台創造更高的穩定性。所以我認為，如果在經濟良性時期，承諾資本的成本更高，我們可以透過自己的商業模式來抵銷這一成本，然後在不可避免的經濟下行週期中彌補這一成本。

So we view our margins to be a lever that we can use to make sure that the investors are stable and the platform is stable and the borrowers are getting some amount of stability. Even though, as you know, our mission is to fundamentally lend to for a proportion of the population, which notionally are riskier.

因此，我們將保證金視為一種槓桿，可以用來確保投資人穩定、平台穩定，以及借款人獲得一定程度的穩定性。儘管如你所知，我們的使命本質上是為一部分人群提供貸款，而這部分人群的風險通常更高。

And we'll go next to Nat Schindler of Bank of America.

接下來我們來談談美國銀行的 Nat Schindler。

I think a lot of my questions have been asked already. But one thing I wanted to go over, well, 2 things. One, you said that you're going to go out to lenders and you have now a cross-cycle vision of your performance. Are we really cross cycle? Are you modeling that this is the bottom, and we've turned the corner on kind of the low-end consumer that is contrary to what most of our economists are saying at this point? So I wanted to just understand what you mean and whether or not you think that these delinquencies are going to get worse from here or better.

我想我的問題已經被問了很多了。但有一件事我想再說一下，嗯，兩件事。第一，您說您將與貸款機構溝通，現在您對自己的業績有一個跨週期的願景。我們真的跨週期了嗎？您的模型是否表明這是底部，我們已經在低端消費者方面有所突破，這與我們大多數經濟學家目前的說法相反？所以，我想了解您的意思，以及您是否認為這些拖欠情況今後會變得更糟還是會好轉。

Finally, also, I'm a little confused on the back and forth of the balance sheet, no balance sheet, using the balance sheet, not using the balance sheet. One, why this oscillation? And two, how much of your -- how much do you really think that you're ever going to get to on their balance sheet? I mean, originally, you were saying you're going to be only about 5% and that's for experimental purposes. I think in Q1, you got up to 15%, and you said you would go down from there. While that was experimental with auto anyways. And now you're saying you're going to go onto the balance sheet again. What kind of level do you think makes sense?

最後，我對資產負債表、無資產負債表、使用資產負債表和不使用資產負債表的來回變化有點困惑。第一，為什麼會出現這種波動？第二，你認為他們的資產負債表最終會達到多少比例？我的意思是，你最初說的比例只有5%左右，這是為了實驗目的。我記得在第一季度，你把比例提高到了15%，然後你說我會從那裡往下調。不過，這在汽車產業也只是實驗性的。現在你又說要重新使用資產負債表了。你認為什麼樣的比例合理呢？

One final question on top of that, and I'm sorry for the 3, but who are these investors that you haven't talked to? Who are you going out to, to kind of increase your supply? Just are they people that don't do personal loans? Are they people that are new to this market? Who is out there that you are trying to evangelize the product to on the supply?

除此之外，還有最後一個問題，抱歉我問了三個，但你還沒聯絡過的投資人是誰？你會聯繫哪些人來增加你的貸款供應？他們是不是不做個人貸款的？他們是這個市場的新人嗎？你會向哪些人推廣你的產品？

Nat, this is Sanjay. I'll take your first question and then Dave and I will (inaudible) on the last 2. The first question was about do we really think we're at past the bottom of the cycle. I think in a short word, no. But I'll just give you our view on a couple of different nuances. So first of all, I do think that what's happened to date. While in the aggregate, I think that maybe there's a view that it hasn't been too bad to date, and there's more to come. I think the picture is sort of a little bit different in a nuanced way depending where you are in the credit spectrum.

Nat，我是Sanjay。我先回答你的第一個問題，然後我和Dave（聽不清楚）再回答最後兩個問題。第一個問題是，我們真的認為我們已經過了周期底部嗎？簡而言之，我認為沒有。但我還是想談談我們對一些細微差別的看法。首先，我確實認為迄今為止的情況確實如此。雖然總體而言，我認為可能有人認為迄今為止情況還不算太糟，而且未來還會有更多問題。我認為，根據你處於信用等級的哪個階段，情況會略有不同。

And if you look at the industry data, if you're an affluent borrower and you talk about like what has been the best sort of credit performance in the last year sort of mid-2021? And where are you compared to there? You're up mildly, you're up 30% and you're still below pre-COVID numbers. If you are on the less affluent side of the spectrum, you were up much more than that and you're well past where you were pre-COVID. So I think that the timing of all this is a little bit different. I think that the less affluent side of the spectrum peaked a little bit sooner and has come up a little bit sooner and maybe prime borrowers are still sort of in that schedule somewhere.

如果你看一下行業數據，如果你是一個富裕的借款人，你談論去年（也就是2021年中期）的最佳信用表現是什麼？與此相比，你的信用表現如何？你的信用成長幅度很小，成長了30%，但仍低於新冠疫情之前的數字。如果你處於較不富裕的群體，你的信用增長幅度要大得多，而且已經遠遠超過了新冠疫情之前的水平。所以我認為這一切發生的時機略有不同。我認為較不富裕的群體達到高峰的時間稍早一些，而且成長也稍早一些，也許優質借款人仍然在某種程度上處於這個時間段內。

So -- and then I think the second component is we've largely -- to us, it's not just -- it's the rate of change of things and the very sudden changes in the delinquency trends in our core borrower we've sort of cut up to and we're making significant conservative assumptions about the future. So I think we're expecting further degradation in loss trends. But I think that the difference is compared to like mid-2021 when everything was rosy, and everyone still have a lot of stimulus in the bank account and delinquencies were still like 50% of long-term normal. We are now projecting it and prepared for it.

所以——然後我認為第二個因素是，我們在很大程度上——對我們來說，這不僅僅是——而是事物變化的速度，以及我們核心借款人拖欠趨勢的突然變化，我們已經有所了解，並且我們對未來做出了相當保守的假設。所以我認為我們預期損失趨勢會進一步惡化。但我認為，與2021年中期相比，情況有所不同，當時一切都很樂觀，每個人的銀行帳戶裡仍然有很多刺激措施，拖欠率仍然只有長期正常水平的50%。我們現在正在預測它，並為此做好準備。

So there is still a world in which these vintages underperformed going forward. But it would have to be a very, very significant economic sort of step back in our view. And so what we really care about demonstrating to someone who will be forward-committing capital, in sort of a cross cycle kind of a way is like what's the cycle of the returns. And if you look at the sort of returns that we -- by cohort that we talked about in the investor materials, you can see that it's sort of troughed with the Q3, Q4 vintages. The Q1 looks like it's sort of working its way back. And I think that you'll see that when you see those Q2 numbers. Our belief is we will be able to tell a story that the returns have gone through the cycle and we're on the front edge of what's coming.

所以，這些年份的股票在未來仍然會表現不佳。但我們認為，這一定是一個非常非常重大的經濟倒退。因此，我們真正關心的是向那些願意跨週期投入資金的人展示回報週期。如果你看看我們在投資者資料中討論的按群體劃分的回報，你會發現它在第三季和第四季觸底。第一季看起來正在回升。我想，當你看到第二季的數據時，你就會明白這一點。我們相信，我們能夠告訴大家，回報已經經歷了整個週期，而我們正處於未來趨勢的前沿。

And of course, you can never fully predict the future, but just the preparedness of our models and the conservatism of the macro assumptions are such that I think we're ahead of the curve now. So that's the question with -- so that's the answer to the first question. I think your second question was about balance sheet usage. I don't know, Dave, do you want to chime in on that?

當然，你永遠無法完全預測未來，但僅憑我們模型的準備程度和宏觀假設的保守性，我認為我們現在已經領先於情況。這就是問題所在──也就是第一個問題的答案。我想你的第二個問題是關於資產負債表的使用。戴夫，你想插嘴嗎？

Yes, sure. And Nat asked, I don't know exactly how to put it, what's with the back and forth on balance sheet usage is maybe the short version of it. But Nat, look, I'd just say we're -- the company I founded -- cofounded 10-plus years ago. The thing that's made us successful over the years is being nimble and thoughtful and responsive when needed by the market. And we certainly have a long-term view that we are a market-based business, meaning to bring lenders and investors together with consumers, borrowers on the other side, and that's how we view ourselves long term.

是的，當然。 Nat問：「我不知道該怎麼確切地表達，資產負債表使用上的反覆是什麼，或許可以簡單地概括一下。不過Nat，你看，我只想說，我們——我創辦的公司——是十多年前與他人共同創立的。多年來，我們之所以成功，是因為我們靈活、周到，並在市場需要時做出快速反應。

Having said that, we came to the conclusion that having a sort of a litmus test that thou shalt not use the balance sheet at all, doesn't make sense, particularly when you see reaction to the supply side of our business happen in ways that almost the contrary effect to us, meaning credit is generally performing well. And yet for reasons that are obviously -- many of which are beyond our control, lenders or investors take decisions that they take.

話雖如此，我們最終得出的結論是，用一種「完全不使用資產負債表」來作為試金石是沒有意義的，尤其是當你看到我們業務的供應方反應幾乎與我們相反，這意味著信貸總體表現良好。然而，由於一些顯而易見的原因——其中許多是我們無法控制的原因——貸款人或投資者做出了自己的決定。

So I just think in the interest of our shareholders and everybody else, it's prudent for us to use our balance sheet wisely. We don't intend to become a large balance sheet lender. But at the same time, we think it's important to state to the community out there that we're going to do the right things for the business, and we don't believe it makes sense to have a sort of ironclad litmus test that thousands shalt not use your balance sheet in the marketplace. And that's the conclusion we came to. We think it really is, as we've said numerous times now, a transitional step toward a place where we have committed third-party capital. And that's what we think also represents a significant chance to upgrade our business structure.

所以我認為，為了股東和所有人的利益，我們謹慎使用資產負債表是明智之舉。我們無意成為一家大型資產負債表貸款機構。但同時，我們認為有必要向社會公眾表明，我們將為公司業務做正確的事情，我們認為，制定一種鐵律，禁止成千上萬的人在市場上使用你的資產負債表是沒有意義的。這就是我們得出的結論。正如我們多次強調的那樣，我們認為這實際上是邁向第三方資本承諾的過渡性一步。我們認為，這也代表著我們升級業務結構的一個重要機會。

And so put those altogether, and we think this is the right step forward for Upstart. It's going to be part of building a much larger, a much stronger Upstart over time.

綜上所述，我們認為這是 Upstart 向前邁出的正確一步。隨著時間的推移，這將成為 Upstart 更大、更強大的一部分。

And we will go next to David Chiaverini with Wedbush Securities.

接下來我們來談談 Wedbush Securities 的 David Chiaverini。

The first question is on the take rate, and it makes sense to increase the take rate in this environment. I was curious, how high should we expect the take rate to go over the next couple of quarters?

第一個問題是關於佣金率，在這種環境下提高佣金率是合理的。我很好奇，我們預計未來幾季佣金率會達到多少？

David, it's Sanjay. I think maybe one way of putting this is, given the guidance we've put out for Q3, you might imagine that we're doing all that we can to ensure that our P&L remains resilient.

大衛，我是桑傑。我想可以這麼說，考慮到我們發布的第三季業績指引，你可能會認為我們正在盡最大努力確保我們的損益表保持韌性。

Got it. And then somewhat similar question on originations for the third quarter. I guess, zooming out back to the second quarter, are you able to share what the June origination number was and how that compares to July?

明白了。然後關於第三季的貸款發放量，我有一個類似的問題。我想，讓我們回到第二季度，您能否分享一下6月的貸款發放量是多少，以及與7月相比如何？

Yes. We're not breaking out specific months, David. I would just -- I would say that the trend right now is volatile. So there's no real directionality in our numbers with respect to June versus July.

是的。大衛，我們沒有具體列出月份。我只是想說——目前的趨勢很不穩定。所以我們6月和7月的數據並沒有明確的方向性。

Got it. And then quickly on the buyback, can you talk about your appetite from here?

明白了。然後快速談談回購，您能談談您對回購的興趣嗎？

Sure, David. Well, as you know, we have Board authorization to go up to $400 million, of which we've used $150 million. I mean, it's sort of an ongoing equation between where the price is versus what we think is fair value. And now, of course, what other sources and uses of cash or I guess, uses in particular, we might have. And so there's always opportunities, whether it's buying back the stock and reducing the dilution or looking at some of the convertibles in the market that are ours or buying loans, which, as Dave said, we think can have a very lucrative return right now. So I would just say that we're monitoring that on an ongoing basis, and we're certainly interested in making efficient use of our cash balance on behalf of the shareholders.

當然，大衛。如你所知，董事會授權我們最多可以投入4億美元，其中我們已經使用了1.5億美元。我的意思是，這就像一個持續的平衡過程，在價格和我們認為的公允價值之間進行權衡。現在，當然，我們可能還有其他現金來源和用途，或者說，具體用途。所以機會總是存在的，無論是回購股票以減少股權稀釋，還是考慮市場上一些我們持有的可轉換債券，或者購買貸款，正如戴夫所說，我們認為這些現在可以獲得非常豐厚的回報。所以我想說，我們正在持續監控這些情況，我們當然希望代表股東有效率地利用我們的現金餘額。

And now I will turn the call over to Dave Girouard for any additional or closing remarks.

現在，我將把電話交給 Dave Girouard，請他發表任何補充或結束語。

Thanks all for being with us today. Sanjay and I just want to make clear, we're not happy with our results. We're not a company that likes to have a declining revenue from 1 quarter to the next. But we are -- we feel doing the right things to make the company as strong and as powerful as it can be in the future. We are as committed as ever to the mission of improving access to credit for those who deserve it, and we are making steps to make the company stronger and better and do anticipate we'll be back on a growth track. So we appreciate all of them sticking with us through this, and we're going to get back to work at making Upstart the great company that it is.

感謝大家今天的到來。 Sanjay 和我只想明確表示，我們對目前的業績並不滿意。我們公司不希望收入逐季下滑。但我們——我們正在做正確的事情，讓公司在未來盡可能地強大。我們一如既往地致力於改善信貸管道，讓那些值得的人獲得信貸，我們正在採取措施讓公司變得更強大、更好，並預期我們將重返成長軌道。因此，我們感謝所有人一直以來的支持，我們將重新開始工作，讓 Upstart 成為一家偉大的公司。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。