(UPST) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Upstart Q2 2022 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Upstart 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Jason Schmidt。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results. With us on today's call are Dave Girouard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 Upstart 的 2022 年第二季度財務業績。 Upstart 的首席執行官 Dave Girouard 與我們一起參加今天的電話會議；和我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Datta。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its second quarter 2022 financial results and published an Investor Relations presentation and credit FAQ. All are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.upstart.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天市場收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了其 2022 年第二季度的財務業績，並發布了投資者關係演示文稿和信用常見問題解答。所有這些都可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.upstart.com 上找到。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance for the third quarter of 2022 related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law. In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如與我們的業務相關的 2022 年第三季度的指導以及我們未來擴展平台的計劃。這些陳述基於我們目前的預期和截至今天可用的信息，並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。由於我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。因此，我們告誡您不要過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，除非法律要求。此外，在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則對我們結果的引用作為非公認會計原則財務指標提供，並與我們的公認會計原則結果相一致，可在收益發布和補充表格中找到。

(Operator Instructions) Later this quarter, Upstart will be participating in the Goldman Sachs Communacopia Plus Technology Conference, September 13; and the Piper Sandler Growth Frontier Conference, September 14.

（操作員說明）本季度晚些時候，Upstart 將參加 9 月 13 日舉行的高盛 Communacopia Plus 技術大會；和 Piper Sandler 增長前沿會議，9 月 14 日。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

現在我想把它交給 Upstart 的首席執行官 Dave Girouard。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our second quarter 2022 results. I'm Dave Girouard, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart. Today, we reported a decline in revenues, which is obviously disappointing and unacceptable to us. I want to explain where this decline came from and what we're doing to address it.

大家下午好。感謝您參加我們關於 2022 年第二季度業績的財報電話會議。我是 Upstart 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Dave Girouard。今天，我們報告了收入下降，這對我們來說顯然是令人失望和無法接受的。我想解釋一下這種下降的來源以及我們正在做些什麼來解決它。

It may be natural for you to question whether Upstart's AI-powered risk models aren't working as designed, but we're confident this isn't the case, that, in fact, our models continue to improve with respect to accuracy and risk separation. But there's no getting around the fact that a decline in revenues is a business problem that we need to address. And today, we'll share with you the actions we're taking to address it.

您可能很自然地質疑 Upstart 的 AI 驅動的風險模型是否沒有按設計工作，但我們相信情況並非如此，事實上，我們的模型在準確性和風險方面繼續改進分離。但是，收入下降是我們需要解決的業務問題，這一事實無法迴避。今天，我們將與您分享我們為解決這個問題而採取的行動。

Today, Sanjay and I will discuss a variety of topics, including credit performance, loan funding, lending partner sentiment and some of the actions we're taking right now to make sure Upstart's future is bright. I also want to share with you the progress we have made in many important aspects of our business and how they're setting the stage once again for Upstart's growth in the future.

今天，Sanjay 和我將討論各種主題，包括信用表現、貸款資金、貸款合作夥伴的情緒以及我們現在正在採取的一些行動，以確保 Upstart 的未來是光明的。我還想與您分享我們在業務的許多重要方面取得的進展，以及它們如何再次為 Upstart 未來的發展奠定基礎。

I don't want to spend too much time restating what you've already heard about the current economic climate. Given the nature of our product and our borrower, we do, however, have a unique lens into what's transpired in the last 2-plus years and what may transpire in the coming months and years. We believe we're at the end of a unique economic cycle related to the pandemic that included 2 distinct phases. The first phase was triggered by a pandemic-constrained consumer spending and unprecedented government stimulus throughout 2020 and early 2021. These together drove significant improvements in consumer savings levels and liquidity, which in turn led to dramatic overperformance of credit during the space. Our platform experienced about a 50% reduction in credit defaults compared to the pre-COVID time frame.

我不想花太多時間重述您已經聽說過的有關當前經濟環境的內容。然而，鑑於我們的產品和借款人的性質，我們確實對過去兩年多發生的事情以及未來幾個月和幾年可能發生的事情有獨特的了解。我們相信，我們正處於與大流行相關的獨特經濟周期的尾聲，該週期包括兩個不同的階段。第一階段是由 2020 年和 2021 年初受大流行限制的消費者支出和前所未有的政府刺激引發的。這些共同推動了消費者儲蓄水平和流動性的顯著改善，進而導致信貸在該領域的顯著超額表現。與 COVID 之前的時間框架相比，我們的平台的信用違約減少了約 50%。

In the second phase, toward the end of 2021 and into 2022, this effect began to unwind as stimulus was discontinued and consumers begin to travel, dine out and spend once again. And as expected, default rates returned to pre-COVID levels or in some cases, even higher. While virtually all consumers benefited financially from reduced spending during the early stages of the pandemic, this cycle was concentrated in consumers who received government stimulus checks, a demographic, which is also more likely to be Upstart borrowers.

在第二階段，即到 2021 年底和 2022 年，隨著刺激措施的停止以及消費者再次開始旅行、外出就餐和消費，這種影響開始減弱。正如預期的那樣，違約率恢復到 COVID 之前的水平，在某些情況下甚至更高。儘管在大流行初期，幾乎所有消費者都從減少支出中獲得了經濟利益，但這一周期集中在接受政府刺激檢查的消費者身上，這一人群也更有可能成為新貴的借款人。

Our risk models largely captured these effects and performed admirably, though not perfectly throughout. But I'll get to that in a bit. We believe we're now at the end of the 2-phase cycle and an important question for all of us is what's next. Will efforts to slow inflation lead to recession and unemployment. While no one knows the future, we do expect a significant slowing of the economy and a worse-than-normal macro for the next year and beyond. We'll speak to that as well. Our job to all of this is to ensure the future of our platform and to protect Upstart's ability to pursue our mission for years to come.

我們的風險模型在很大程度上捕捉到了這些影響並表現出色，儘管並非始終完美。但我稍後會談到這一點。我們相信我們現在處於兩階段週期的末尾，對我們所有人來說一個重要的問題是下一步是什麼。減緩通脹的努力會導致經濟衰退和失業。雖然沒有人知道未來，但我們確實預計明年及以後的經濟將顯著放緩，宏觀經濟將比正常情況更糟。我們也會談到這一點。我們對所有這一切的工作是確保我們平台的未來，並保護 Upstart 在未來幾年追求我們使命的能力。

Alongside our earnings release, we today shared some responses to important questions regarding credit performance on Upstart's platform. It goes without saying that measuring credit performance is vital and it's also nontrivial. Comparing one platform to another can be challenging, different products, different borrowers, different return targets, months on book, prepayments, hardship policies and more. There's no simple apples-to-apples comparison. We believe the essential measurement for credit performance is actual dollar returns compared to the lenders or institutional investors target at the time of origination, full stop. And today, we provided this information for all Upstart cohorts going back to the beginning of 2018.

除了我們的收益發布之外，我們今天還分享了一些關於 Upstart 平台上信用表現的重要問題的回應。不言而喻，衡量信用績效至關重要，而且也很重要。將一個平台與另一個平台進行比較可能具有挑戰性，不同的產品、不同的借款人、不同的回報目標、賬面月數、預付款、困難政策等等。沒有簡單的蘋果對蘋果的比較。我們認為，信用績效的基本衡量標準是與貸方或機構投資者在發起時的目標相比的實際美元回報，句號。今天，我們為可追溯到 2018 年初的所有 Upstart 群組提供了此信息。

The bottom line is this: our 70-plus bank and credit union partners who typically retain loans in the lower risk rates appropriate to their businesses have seen to date portfolios consistently meet or exceed expectations since the program began in 2018. And however, institutional loan buyers done against the target of approximately 8% gross return since Q1 2018, institutional buyers have so far seen 12 quarterly vintages overperform with 5 expected to underperform.

底線是：自 2018 年該計劃開始以來，我們的 70 多家銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴通常以適合其業務的較低風險利率保留貸款，迄今為止，他們的投資組合始終達到或超過預期。然而，機構貸款自 2018 年第一季度以來，買家完成了毛回報率約為 8% 的目標，到目前為止，機構買家已經看到 12 個季度的年份表現超出預期，其中 5 個預期表現不佳。

It's important to highlight that a loan buyer who invested equally in all cohorts since Q1 2018 would have experienced a positive return on all vintages thus far with an overall 9.8% gross annualized return. This compares to a return of less than 3% in the U.S. high-yield bond index over that same period.

重要的是要強調，自 2018 年第一季度以來對所有同類產品進行同等投資的貸款購買者將在迄今為止的所有年份都獲得正回報，年化總回報率為 9.8%。相比之下，同期美國高收益債券指數的回報率不到 3%。

Lastly, we believe it's not reasonable to expect above-target loan performance, irrespective of the economic cycle. So it's fundamentally important to separate the impact of macro conditions from imperfections in the credit model. The essential litmus test for model performance is separation of high- and low-risk borrowers. As demonstrated in the loss rate by grade and AUC metrics we shared today, our model is positively differentiated in this respect, and it continues to improve. In an effort to deliver unparalleled transparency and analytics, we will provide this detailed information to each of our lenders and loan buyers.

最後，我們認為無論經濟周期如何，預期高於目標的貸款表現是不合理的。因此，將宏觀條件的影響與信貸模型的缺陷區分開來至關重要。模型性能的基本試金石是高風險和低風險借款人的分離。正如我們今天分享的按等級劃分的損失率和 AUC 指標所表明的那樣，我們的模型在這方面具有積極的差異化，並且還在繼續改進。為了提供無與倫比的透明度和分析，我們將向我們的每個貸方和貸款購買者提供這些詳細信息。

Today, we're in a funding-constrained environment, which is the primary cause of our revenue shortfall. I want to share some thoughts on this situation and actions we're taking to address it. First, as we have said recently, our goal is to operate as a marketplace for credit over the long run. We want loan transactions to take place when they make sense for the borrower and the lender. And certainly, lending is a category which would expect to experience some volatility over time due to macroeconomic factors.

今天，我們處於資金緊張的環境中，這是我們收入不足的主要原因。我想分享一些關於這種情況的想法以及我們為解決它而採取的行動。首先，正如我們最近所說，我們的目標是長期作為信貸市場運作。我們希望貸款交易在對借款人和貸款人有意義時進行。當然，由於宏觀經濟因素，貸款是一個隨著時間的推移會經歷一些波動的類別。

Having said that, in the last few months, lenders and institutional credit investors reacted more quickly and abruptly than we anticipated. Despite the fact that our bank partners have seen consistently strong credit performance, meaning portfolios performing at or above plan across quarterly cohort, several of them have paused or reduced originations due to fear about the future of the economy. To be clear, these lenders and institutional investors have not left Upstart platform but have temporarily paused or reduced their originations.

話雖如此，在過去的幾個月裡，貸方和機構信貸投資者的反應比我們預期的更快、更突然。儘管我們的銀行合作夥伴一直看到強勁的信貸表現，這意味著投資組合在季度隊列中的表現達到或高於計劃，但由於對經濟未來的擔憂，其中一些已經暫停或減少了發放。需要明確的是，這些貸方和機構投資者並沒有離開 Upstart 平台，而是暫時暫停或減少了他們的發行。

As we shared in our credit performance FAQ today, we believe our models are well calibrated to the current economic environment and in fact, include a generous accommodation for a recession over the next 18 to 24 months. And given funding constraints, we believe the opportunity for lenders to generate strong returns on Upstart is unusually high right now, yet the reaction of lenders is often binary in nature, more so than we would have anticipated. As a result, we've concluded that we need to upgrade and improve the funding side of our marketplace, bringing a significant amount of committed capital on board from partners who invest consistently through cycles. We're currently evaluating a variety of opportunities to do just that. So we expect this will take some time to bring to fruition.

正如我們今天在信用業績常見問題解答中分享的那樣，我們相信我們的模型已經很好地適應了當前的經濟環境，事實上，包括對未來 18 至 24 個月經濟衰退的慷慨調整。鑑於資金限制，我們認為貸方目前在 Upstart 上產生可觀回報的機會異常高，但貸方的反應通常是二元的，比我們預期的要多。因此，我們得出的結論是，我們需要升級和改善我們市場的融資方面，從通過週期持續投資的合作夥伴那裡獲得大量承諾資本。我們目前正在評估各種機會來做到這一點。因此，我們預計這將需要一些時間才能實現。

Furthermore, while we continue to believe that it doesn't make sense for Upstart to become a bank, we've decided it may make sense to, at times, leverage our own balance sheet as a transitional bridge to this committed funding. I acknowledge that this is a shift relative to what we planned and communicated earlier this year but a changing and volatile environment suggests we need to be flexible and responsive in our approach.

此外，雖然我們仍然認為 Upstart 成為一家銀行沒有意義，但我們認為，有時利用我們自己的資產負債表作為實現這一承諾資金的過渡橋樑可能是有意義的。我承認，相對於我們今年早些時候的計劃和溝通內容，這是一個轉變，但不斷變化和多變的環境表明我們需要在我們的方法中保持靈活性和響應性。

We're taking this step for a few reasons. First, there's an obvious information asymmetry where we understand better than anybody how our model is performing today and how well it's calibrated for the current economic environment. Secondly, we believe the opportunity to generate outsized profits on our platform is unusually high right now. And third, we can bring a level of stability to our business that's important to our longer-term goals while we work to put these committed capital structures in place. Sanjay will share some more about this in his remarks shortly.

我們採取這一步有幾個原因。首先，存在明顯的信息不對稱，我們比任何人都更了解我們的模型今天的表現以及它在當前經濟環境中的校準程度。其次，我們認為現在在我們的平台上產生超額利潤的機會異常高。第三，在我們努力落實這些承諾的資本結構的同時，我們可以為我們的業務帶來一定程度的穩定性，這對我們的長期目標很重要。桑傑不久將在他的講話中分享更多關於這方面的信息。

I want to also highlight that we're building a business that can survive and thrive through a variety of market conditions to make sure we achieve these ambitious, long-term goals. Our fixed costs are low, and our gross margins are strong so we continue to invest in our road map and in our future through a variety of macro environments.

我還想強調，我們正在建立一個能夠在各種市場條件下生存和繁榮的企業，以確保我們實現這些雄心勃勃的長期目標。我們的固定成本很低，我們的毛利率很高，因此我們繼續通過各種宏觀環境投資於我們的路線圖和未來。

We continue to make rapid progress in the newer parts of our business, and we're optimistic that this progress is setting up the next stage of growth for Upstart, which I'm sure you're all looking forward to. First, we continue to add new lenders to our marketplace, with a total of 71 banks and credit unions as of today, up from 57 when we last spoke to you in May.

我們繼續在我們業務的新部分取得快速進展，我們樂觀地認為，這一進展正在為 Upstart 建立下一個增長階段，我相信你們都很期待。首先，我們繼續在我們的市場中增加新的貸方，截至今天共有 71 家銀行和信用合作社，高於我們上次在 5 月與您交談時的 57 家。

Despite the cautionary outlook in the financial services industry, forward-thinking banks and credit unions continue to choose Upstart. We now have 640 dealerships using Upstart auto retail software. And just a few weeks ago, industry analyst automotive market data declared that Upstart was the nation's fastest-growing auto retail software provider in the second quarter. Subaru and VW were the latest OEMs that announced support for Upstart auto retail, joining Toyota, Lexus, Mitsubishi and Kia as well as top franchise dealers from 37 brands including Ford, Honda and BMW.

儘管金融服務行業前景謹慎，但有遠見的銀行和信用合作社繼續選擇 Upstart。我們現在有 640 家經銷商使用 Upstart 汽車零售軟件。而就在幾週前，行業分析師汽車市場數據宣布，Upstart 是美國第二季度增長最快的汽車零售軟件提供商。斯巴魯和大眾是最新宣布支持 Upstart 汽車零售的 OEM，加入了豐田、雷克薩斯、三菱和起亞以及福特、本田和寶馬等 37 個品牌的頂級特許經銷商的行列。

We also expanded our auto retail lending product out to 29 dealerships and saw the first $10 million in retail loan originations in the second quarter. In just the last couple of weeks, we merged our machine learning model for automated income verification, originally developed for our personal loan product into our auto retail lending flow. We expect this improvement to more than double the percent of applicants for whom we can now automatically verify their income.

我們還將汽車零售貸款產品擴展到 29 家經銷商，並在第二季度看到了首筆 1000 萬美元的零售貸款發放。在過去的幾周里，我們將最初為我們的個人貸款產品開發的用於自動收入驗證的機器學習模型合併到了我們的汽車零售貸款流程中。我們預計這種改進將使我們現在可以自動驗證其收入的申請人的百分比增加一倍以上。

I'm also pleased to announce that we quietly launched our small business loan product at the end of June, well ahead of schedule. We've already seen some more than 40 small business loans originated, totaling more than $1 million in principle in just a few weeks. That team is quickly ironing out operational issues with an eye toward rapidly expanding this product in the coming months and years. Lastly, the small dollar loan team launched support for Spanish-speaking applicants, another giant step towards serving those left out of the country's mainstream financial system.

我也很高興地宣布，我們在 6 月底悄悄推出了我們的小企業貸款產品，大大提前了。我們已經看到大約 40 多筆小企業貸款在短短幾週內發放，原則上總額超過 100 萬美元。該團隊正在迅速解決運營問題，著眼於在未來幾個月和幾年內迅速擴展該產品。最後，小額美元貸款團隊啟動了對講西班牙語的申請人的支持，這是為那些被排除在該國主流金融體系之外的人邁出的又一大步。

Some of you have questioned whether Upstart veered too quickly into lending to riskier borrowers in 2021 in order to grow in our post-IPO phase. But I believe we have done exactly what we set out to do and what we said we would do. Upstart's mission is and has been to leverage modern technology and data science to improve access to affordable credit. There are tens of millions of Americans who deserve access to reasonably priced credit from our nation's banking system, yet are denied access through no fault of their own. We're unique among our fintech peers and that we aim to tackle this problem directly.

你們中的一些人質疑，為了在我們的 IPO 後階段增長，Upstart 是否在 2021 年過快轉向向風險較高的借款人提供貸款。但我相信我們已經完成了我們計劃要做的事情以及我們說過要做的事情。 Upstart 的使命是並且一直是利用現代技術和數據科學來改善獲得負擔得起的信貸的機會。數以千萬計的美國人理應從我們國家的銀行系統中獲得價格合理的信貸，但他們卻被拒絕獲得貸款，這並不是他們自己的過錯。我們在金融科技同行中是獨一無二的，我們的目標是直接解決這個問題。

The terms nonprime, near-prime and subprime. These are words the industry invented to describe people that our current systems don't understand. The truth is that the vast majority of these Americans are entirely credit worthy. Upstart's mission is to identify those borrowers and provide them with access to affordable credit, and we haven't wavered from that challenge.

術語 nonprime、near-prime 和 subprime。這些是行業發明的用來描述我們當前系統無法理解的人的詞。事實是，這些美國人中的絕大多數都是完全值得信賴的。 Upstart 的使命是識別這些借款人並為他們提供負擔得起的信貸，我們並沒有從這一挑戰中動搖。

How does growth fit in? We approach our business as a waterfall of priorities in a way analogous to structured credit. Upstart's highest priority, our A bond, if you will, is credit quality. Our goal is to reliably deliver the return the lender or investor expects for a specific allocation of risk. Our B-bond or next highest priority is unit economics or gross profits. We don't strive for loan transactions that lose money for Upstart and generally seek to avoid them.

增長如何適應？我們以類似於結構化信貸的方式將我們的業務視為優先事項的瀑布。 Upstart 的最高優先級，如果您願意的話，我們的 A 債券是信用質量。我們的目標是可靠地提供貸方或投資者對特定風險分配的預期回報。我們的 B 債券或下一個最高優先級是單位經濟或毛利潤。我們不會爭取為 Upstart 帶來損失的貸款交易，並且通常會設法避免它們。

And finally, whatever is left over goes to platform transaction growth or residual, so to speak. In truth, growth isn't a specific target for us. It's a plug based on our waterfall of priorities. The reasons for this ordering are clear without strong credit performance and solid unit economics, growth over the long term would be unsustainable.

最後，剩下的就是平台交易增長或剩餘，可以這麼說。事實上，增長並不是我們的具體目標。這是一個基於我們的優先級瀑布的插件。這種排序的原因很明顯，如果沒有強勁的信貸表現和穩健的單位經濟，長期增長將是不可持續的。

To close, I want to acknowledge that we've experienced some setbacks in our business, but our fundamental economic engine is strong. Our risk models are better than ever, and I'm confident that we'll be on the growth path again soon. We're taking decisive action to bring committed capital to Upstart. And to those who say that we should focus on the traditionally prime market, I say that there are plenty of others focused on that. Improving access to credit for all Americans is too important to go ignored and Upstart has the right stuff to get it done. Thank you.

最後，我想承認我們的業務經歷了一些挫折，但我們的基本經濟引擎很強勁。我們的風險模型比以往任何時候都好，我相信我們很快就會再次走上增長之路。我們正在採取果斷行動，為 Upstart 帶來承諾的資金。對於那些說我們應該專注於傳統的主要市場的人，我說還有很多其他人專注於這一點。改善所有美國人獲得信貸的機會太重要了，不容忽視，Upstart 有合適的東西來完成它。謝謝你。

And now I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q2 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

現在我想把它交給我們的首席財務官 Sanjay 來介紹我們的第二季度財務業績和指導。桑傑？

Thank you, Dave, and thanks to everyone for joining. The environment we're operating in has continued to evolve rapidly since our previous call. Industry data shows a general rise in delinquencies across all segments of unsecured credit, disproportionately impacting the higher risk tiers that is comprised a significant component of our borrower base. The impact of this dynamic on the credit performance of Upstart loans can be seen in the supplemental credit performance information that was released today together with our investor materials.

謝謝你，戴夫，也感謝大家的加入。自上次電話會議以來，我們所處的環境一直在迅速發展。行業數據顯示，所有無擔保信貸領域的拖欠率普遍上升，對構成我們藉款人基礎重要組成部分的較高風險層級產生了不成比例的影響。這種動態對 Upstart 貸款信用表現的影響可以在今天與我們的投資者材料一起發布的補充信用表現信息中看到。

The macro uncertainty and the impact of economic stress on consumer delinquencies have led to a decrease in available funding for loans on our platform which has become the operating constraints of the business. While today's results are in line with the preliminary numbers we preannounced on July 7, I will quickly call out the key financial headlines.

宏觀不確定性和經濟壓力對消費者拖欠的影響導致我們平台上可用於貸款的資金減少，這已成為業務的經營製約因素。雖然今天的結果與我們在 7 月 7 日預先宣布的初步數據一致，但我將很快指出關鍵的財務頭條新聞。

On the top line, origination volumes and revenue from fees were both down from last quarter and below our internal expectations, driven primarily by funding constraints in the capital markets. While profitability was also below guidance, we began to systematically improve unit economics in the second half of the quarter and have pivoted to optimizing for in-quarter cash flow generation, which will carry over into our third quarter contribution margins.

最重要的是，發起量和費用收入均比上一季度下降，並且低於我們的內部預期，這主要是由於資本市場的資金限制。雖然盈利能力也低於預期，但我們在本季度下半年開始系統地改善單位經濟，並已轉向優化季度現金流生成，這將延續到我們第三季度的邊際貢獻。

Following our recent share repurchase authorization, we have repurchased approximately 4.4 million shares of Upstart, totaling $150 million in repurchases. Additionally, we sold a meaningful amount of the loan assets from our balance sheet in Q2 in order to fortify our cash position. With these dynamics in mind, here now is a more detailed summary of our numbers.

根據我們最近的股票回購授權，我們回購了約 440 萬股 Upstart 股票，回購總額為 1.5 億美元。此外，我們在第二季度從資產負債表中出售了大量的貸款資產，以鞏固我們的現金頭寸。考慮到這些動態，現在這裡是我們數字的更詳細摘要。

Net revenues in Q2 came in at $228 million, up 18% year-over-year. Revenue from fees constituted $258 million of that amount representing 113% of overall revenue and up 38% year-over-year but down sequentially 18%. Net interest income was a negative component of net revenue this quarter as we entered into multiple loan sale transactions, some of which incurred a negative fair value impact and as the valuation marks of our remaining loans continue to be negatively impacted by the rising interest rate environment.

第二季度的淨收入為 2.28 億美元，同比增長 18%。費用收入佔其中 2.58 億美元，佔總收入的 113%，同比增長 38%，但環比下降 18%。淨利息收入是本季度淨收入的一個負數，因為我們進行了多項貸款銷售交易，其中一些交易對公允價值產生了負面影響，並且我們剩餘貸款的估值標記繼續受到利率上升環境的負面影響.

The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q2 was approximately 321,000 loans, up 12% year-over-year and representing over 233,000 new borrowers. Average loan size was up 5% over last quarter, largely owing to auto loans representing a higher proportion of the mix. Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing was flat sequentially at 47% and 200 basis points ahead of guidance.

第二季度我們平台上的貸款交易量約為 321,000 筆，同比增長 12%，代表超過 233,000 名新借款人。平均貸款規模比上一季度增長 5%，主要是由於汽車貸款在組合中的佔比較高。我們的邊際貢獻是一個非公認會計準則指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的可變成本，環比持平，分別為 47% 和 200 個基點，高於指引。

Without the inclusion of the fledgling auto loan volume, our contribution margin for core personal lending would have risen to 51%. As we optimize our fees and marketing spend for lower near-term volumes, we expect that unit economics will continue to show meaningful sequential improvement.

如果不包括剛剛起步的汽車貸款量，我們對核心個人貸款的貢獻率將上升到 51%。隨著我們優化費用和營銷支出以降低近期銷量，我們預計單位經濟將繼續顯示出有意義的連續改善。

Operating expenses were $260 million in Q2, down 5% sequentially. We reduced our sales and marketing by 21% sequentially as we downsized our marketing campaigns to reflect our constrained funding supply.

第二季度的運營費用為 2.6 億美元，環比下降 5%。隨著我們縮減營銷活動以反映我們有限的資金供應，我們的銷售和營銷環比減少了 21%。

Engineering and product development grew 14% sequentially and remains our priority area of investment. Although by the end of the quarter, we had slowed down hiring significantly and concentrated most of the remaining hires into key technical roles. Growth in general and administrative spend grew 8% sequentially. Taken together, these components resulted in Q2 GAAP net income of negative $29.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 million contracted 91% Q-on-Q. Adjusted earnings per share for Q2 was $0.01 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 93.3 million.

工程和產品開發環比增長 14%，仍然是我們的優先投資領域。儘管到本季度末，我們已經顯著放慢了招聘速度，並將大部分剩餘員工集中到關鍵技術職位上。一般支出和行政支出環比增長 8%。總而言之，這些組成部分導致第二季度 GAAP 淨收入為負 2990 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 550 萬美元，環比收縮 91%。根據 9330 萬股的稀釋加權平均股數，第二季度調整後的每股收益為 0.01 美元。

We ended the quarter with $790 million in unrestricted cash, mildly up from $758 million in Q1. Our balance of loans at the end of the quarter was $624 million, of which $484 million represented R&D loans, principally in the auto segment. While our balance of core personal loans at $140 million was only marginally down from Q1, we did sell a significant number of the loans that had accumulated on our balance sheet subsequent to the end of Q1, but prior to our earnings call in May.

我們在本季度末擁有 7.9 億美元的非限制性現金，略高於第一季度的 7.58 億美元。本季度末我們的貸款餘額為 6.24 億美元，其中 4.84 億美元為研發貸款，主要用於汽車領域。雖然我們的核心個人貸款餘額為 1.4 億美元，僅比第一季度略有下降，但我們確實出售了在第一季度末之後、但在 5 月份財報電話會議之前積累在資產負債表上的大量貸款。

Earlier today, we published some key data regarding the credit performance of Upstart loans. Just to recap a couple of the key points. Our models continue to provide around 5x the amount of risk separation than a credit score, and the statistical accuracy of our model continues to improve. This has not changed. Most vintages from 2021 will underperform their return targets. This volatility comes on the heels of vintages significantly overperforming targets for 12 consecutive quarters. Despite this latest volatility, an investor who invested equally across all Upstart cohorts would expect a 9.8% unlevered gross annualized return.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一些關於 Upstart 貸款信用表現的關鍵數據。只是回顧幾個關鍵點。我們的模型繼續提供大約 5 倍於信用評分的風險分離量，並且我們模型的統計準確性不斷提高。這沒有改變。 2021 年以來的大多數年份都將低於其回報目標。這種波動是在年份連續 12 個季度顯著超過目標之後出現的。儘管最近出現了這種波動，但對所有 Upstart 群體進行同等投資的投資者預計其無槓桿年化總回報率為 9.8%。

Notwithstanding the performance of the credit, we must confront the fact that the largely uncommitted nature of our third-party funding has proven inadequate to the task of navigating the current market turbulence. And we have turned our efforts towards building a more resilient funding model over time.

儘管信貸表現良好，但我們必鬚麵對這樣一個事實，即我們的第三方資金在很大程度上未承諾的性質已被證明不足以應對當前的市場動盪。隨著時間的推移，我們已將努力轉向建立更具彈性的融資模式。

Despite not having suffered any adverse loan performance, some banks are moving to limit their overall exposure to unsecured lending. Investors who have earned significant excess returns during the benign cycle over the past few years are now anxious over the state of the economy and wary over the future prospects of less affluent borrowers who have been the most impacted by the termination of the stimulus.

儘管沒有遭受任何不利的貸款表現，但一些銀行正在採取措施限制其對無擔保貸款的總體風險。在過去幾年的良性循環中獲得顯著超額回報的投資者現在對經濟狀況感到焦慮，並對受刺激措施終止影響最大的不太富裕的借款人的未來前景持謹慎態度。

Despite significant conservatism in our current underwriting and the prospect of historically high returns, investors have been reluctant to reenter the fray. Consequently, our intention is to significantly increase the fraction of forward committed capital deployed on our platform through partnerships with investors that are comfortable investing through cycles with an eye towards longer-term outcomes and in exchange for predictable future access to yield.

儘管我們目前的承銷業務非常保守，並且有望獲得歷史性的高回報，但投資者一直不願重新參與競爭。因此，我們的目的是通過與投資者建立合作夥伴關係，顯著增加部署在我們平台上的遠期承諾資本的比例，這些投資者樂於通過週期進行投資，著眼於長期結果，並以換取可預測的未來收益。

As Dave has said, this will not happen overnight. In the interim, we are prepared to be more proactive with our own balance sheet operations if we deem it necessary to provide a level of stability for the business in this transitional period as well as to demonstrate our own confidence in the models to the funding markets. Please note that this does not represent a change in permanent strategy, and we continue to maintain the view that it is not in our long-term interest to run a large balance sheet or to become a bank. However, in the context of the current extenuating circumstances, we will be flexible in determining whether a temporary change in tactics around balance sheet usage would be in the best interest of supporting the business through to its next state.

正如戴夫所說，這不會在一夜之間發生。在此期間，如果我們認為有必要在過渡期內為業務提供一定程度的穩定性，並向融資市場展示我們對模型的信心，我們準備在自己的資產負債表業務方面更加積極主動.請注意，這並不代表永久性戰略的改變，我們繼續認為經營大型資產負債表或成為銀行不符合我們的長期利益。但是，在當前情有可原的情況下，我們將靈活地確定圍繞資產負債表使用策略的臨時改變是否最符合支持業務進入下一個狀態的最佳利益。

Given the volatility of the current funding environment and the difficulty in forecasting the timing of changing macro sentiment, we feel it is prudent to limit our guidance for now to the coming quarter and withdraw prior full year guidance. With that, for Q3 of 2022, we are expecting revenues of approximately $170 million, representing a year-over-year contraction of 26%; contribution margin of approximately 59%; net income of approximately negative $42 million; adjusted net income of approximately negative $9 million; adjusted EBITDA of approximately 0 and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 85.5 million shares.

鑑於當前融資環境的波動性以及難以預測宏觀情緒變化的時機，我們認為將目前的指導限制在下一季度並撤回之前的全年指導是謹慎的做法。因此，我們預計 2022 年第三季度的收入約為 1.7 億美元，同比下降 26%；貢獻率約為 59%；淨收入約為負 4200 萬美元；調整後的淨收入約為負 900 萬美元；調整後的 EBITDA 約為 0，攤薄加權平均股數約為 8550 萬股。

Our gratitude and admiration once again to all the folks at Upstart, who are remaining resilient through the choppy waters that we are currently navigating as a company and who remain as focused and with as much conviction as ever about the purpose and opportunity before us.

我們再次對 Upstart 的所有員工表示感謝和欽佩，他們在我們作為一家公司目前正在航行的波濤洶湧的水域中保持韌性，並且對我們面前的目標和機會保持一如既往的專注和堅定的信念。

With that, Dave and I are now happy to open the call to any questions. Operator, back to you.

有了這個，戴夫和我現在很高興打開電話詢問任何問題。接線員，還給你。

(Operator Instructions) And we will go first to Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

（操作員說明）我們將首先與大西洋股票公司聯繫西蒙克林奇。

I was wondering, Dave, or Sanjay, if you could talk a little bit more about what -- how you actually go about sort of refocusing your institutional buyer -- investor base to sort of longer-term investors. And I guess how long that might take and a sense of the steps that you need to take to achieve that goal?

我想知道，戴夫或桑傑，如果你能多談談 - 你實際上是如何重新關注你的機構買家 - 投資者基礎是長期投資者。我猜這可能需要多長時間以及您需要採取哪些步驟才能實現該目標？

Sure. This is Dave. I'll give a quick answer, and then Sanjay may want to chime in. Sure. So essentially, the nature of our agreements today, by and large, are at-will agreements with the volume that anybody any particular entity is originating or purchasing is decided on a month-by-month basis. And we're talking about instead about structures where there's committed funding over a significant period of time, many months or even years. And really, that's in return in some form for access to yield over that period of time in some form of economics that make sense for those entities.

當然。這是戴夫。我會快速回答，然後桑傑可能想插話。當然。因此，基本上，我們今天的協議的性質，總的來說，是任意協議，任何特定實體發起或購買的數量都是按月決定的。相反，我們談論的是在很長一段時間、幾個月甚至幾年內承諾資金的結構。確實，這是以某種形式作為對這些實體有意義的某種形式的經濟學在這段時間內獲得收益的回報。

So we don't have more specifics to share than that, other than certainly, I think a lot of marketplace businesses in many different types of industries take actions to secure effectively secure inventory on their platforms one way or another. And we've decided this is just necessary for us. And so we're beginning the steps toward taking -- getting that done.

因此，我們沒有比這更多的細節要分享，當然，我認為許多不同類型行業的許多市場企業都採取行動以一種或另一種方式有效地保護其平台上的庫存。我們已經決定這對我們來說是必要的。因此，我們開始採取措施——完成這項工作。

Yes. I'll just add, Dave. This is Sanjay. I think that we have demonstrated and we'll be able to demonstrate certainly as we go through this cycle, pretty attractive long-term yields for anyone who's willing to hold an investor cycle and Dave cited some of those numbers and we've got some of those in the releases we provided. And so I think there's a class of capital provider out there for whom access to that would be attractive. And those are sort of more arrangements that will take a while to put into place.

是的。我只是補充一下，戴夫。這是桑傑。我認為我們已經證明並且我們將能夠在我們經歷這個週期時肯定地證明，對於任何願意持有投資者周期的人來說，長期收益率非常有吸引力，戴夫引用了其中一些數字，我們已經得到了一些我們提供的版本中的那些。所以我認為有一類資本提供者對他們來說很有吸引力。這些是需要一段時間才能落實的更多安排。

But I think predominantly, what we have today are capital providers who are vintage by vintage and in some sense, may depend on either leverage or liquidity for the ABS markets, which creates more volatility. So I think now that we have some proof points which demonstrate what yield looks like through a cycle, we will use that to enter into negotiations and arrangements with, one is that are more of the style of wanting predictable stability in terms of access to yield.

但我認為，我們今天擁有的主要是資本提供者，他們逐年進行，在某種意義上，可能依賴於 ABS 市場的槓桿或流動性，這會產生更大的波動性。所以我認為現在我們有一些證明點可以證明收益率在一個週期中的樣子，我們將用它來進行談判和安排，一個是在獲得收益率方面更希望可預測的穩定性.

And so I think that's all we really have to share at this time. As Dave said, these aren't going to happen overnight. They're pretty complex relationships, but I think we're already convicted that, that's the direction that will provide stability for our platform to get to the next level of volume.

所以我認為這就是我們現在真正要分享的全部內容。正如戴夫所說，這些不會在一夜之間發生。它們是非常複雜的關係，但我認為我們已經確信，這將為我們的平台提供穩定性以達到更高水平的音量。

Okay. All right. That's useful. And just as a follow-up, Dave, I think in your opening comments, you mentioned your view that we're heading for a significant slowdown in the near-term recession in the next 7 months. And I guess, a slower economic growth outlook beyond fiscal '23. And I was wondering if you could expand on your thoughts there and I guess, sort of what you're seeing and what gives you that much weaker outlook than perhaps I've heard from others.

好的。好的。這很有用。作為後續行動，戴夫，我認為在你的開場評論中，你提到了你的觀點，即我們將在未來 7 個月內的近期衰退中顯著放緩。我猜，23 財年之後的經濟增長前景將放緩。我想知道你是否可以在那裡擴展你的想法，我猜，你所看到的，是什麼讓你的前景比我從其他人那裡聽到的要弱得多。

Yes, sure, Dave. I wouldn't say that it's my outlook per se. I'm definitely not a macro forecaster and Upstart does not try to hold limited skills, kind of a crystal ball about the next phases in the economy. What I was trying to state, though, is that we try to build in what you would think of as some form of market consensus where the market thinks the economy is going to go with a degree of conservatism sufficient for banks and investors and credit unions, et cetera, to feel comfortable in the platform.

是的，當然，戴夫。我不會說這本身就是我的觀點。我絕對不是宏觀預測者，Upstart 不會試圖掌握有限的技能，就像一個關於經濟下一階段的水晶球。不過，我試圖說明的是，我們試圖建立你認為的某種形式的市場共識，市場認為經濟將以足以讓銀行、投資者和信用合作社接受的程度的保守主義發展，等等，在平台上感到舒適。

So we necessarily take what you might consider a conservative viewpoint on them, only because it's a good starting point for those who are on the platform with capital at risk. It doesn't necessarily mean it's my personal outlook or Upstart's personal outlook It really is just trying to reflect a reasonable and a conservative take on where the economy could be in the next couple of years.

因此，我們必須對他們採取您可能認為保守的觀點，只是因為對於那些在平台上面臨資金風險的人來說，這是一個很好的起點。這並不一定意味著這是我的個人觀點或 Upstart 的個人觀點。它實際上只是試圖反映對未來幾年經濟可能出現的合理和保守的看法。

And we'll go next to Mike NG of Goldman Sachs.

我們將在高盛的 Mike NG 旁邊進行討論。

I just have to 2. First, could you talk a little bit more about the fee revenue as a percentage of originations. It's quite strong in the quarter. I was just wondering if there are any specific drivers that led to that increase, whether those are price increases or the loan mix? And then second, just on the guidance for the third quarter for $170 million of revenue. Could you just talk a little bit about the mix between fee revenue and net interest income, and any notable points around fair value adjustments?

我只需要 2。首先，您能否多談談費用收入佔來源的百分比。本季度表現相當強勁。我只是想知道是否有任何特定的驅動因素導致了這種增長，是價格上漲還是貸款組合？其次，僅針對第三季度 1.7 億美元收入的指導。您能否簡單談談費用收入和淨利息收入之間的組合，以及有關公允價值調整的任何值得注意的點？

Sure. Michael, this is Sanjay. Sure. On the first question, can I presume you're sort of talking about take rates. When you say strength, you're talking about -- Okay. Yes, I mean, I think it's as simple as -- and I think we've signaled this in the past. We've typically been optimizing for not interim cash production, but sort of long-term volume and how we price.

當然。邁克爾，這是桑傑。當然。關於第一個問題，我可以假設您是在談論收取率。當你說力量時，你是在談論——好吧。是的，我的意思是，我認為這很簡單——而且我認為我們過去已經發出過這樣的信號。我們通常不是針對臨時現金生產進行優化，而是針對長期數量和我們的定價方式進行優化。

And so our take rates have generally always been at a level where we are able to produce more volume that will lead to model acceleration and learning and will lead to future value in the form of repeat loans. And obviously, in a situation like we're in today, where we are funding constrained and we're much more focused on in-quarter cash generation. We've sort of set our fees at a more optimal level, if you will. And so we've priced them higher, and that has the effect of creating a more resilient in quarter P&L. And so that's, I would say, is an artifact of how we're managing the business through the choppiness that we're experiencing in the market.

因此，我們的利率通常始終處於能夠產生更多數量的水平，這將導致模型加速和學習，並以重複貸款的形式產生未來價值。顯然，在像我們今天這樣的情況下，我們資金有限，我們更專注於季度現金產生。如果您願意，我們已經將我們的費用設置在一個更優化的水平。因此，我們將它們定價得更高，這具有在季度損益表中創造更具彈性的效果。所以，我想說，這是我們如何通過我們在市場上經歷的波濤洶湧來管理業務的人工製品。

And the second question, really, was around the guidance and fair value in particular, I believe. I mean I think most of our revenue is an expression of transaction volume and fee revenue. There still is some downside in terms of fair value. We disclosed in our investor materials, the size of the balance sheet we're holding, which is pretty much on par with last quarter. And to the extent there's more interest rate exposure, if the rates continue to rise, those will necessarily depress asset values, create some fair value exposure but we're not making, I would say, large assumptions one way or the other about macro variables. We're really, I guess, trying to express the direction of transaction volume and the consequence of our revenue.

第二個問題，真的，是關於指導和公允價值的，我相信。我的意思是我認為我們的大部分收入都是交易量和費用收入的體現。公允價值方面仍有一些不利因素。我們在投資者資料中披露了我們持有的資產負債表規模，與上一季度基本持平。就利率風險而言，如果利率繼續上升，這必然會壓低資產價值，創造一些公允價值風險，但我想說，我們不會以一種或另一種方式對宏觀變量做出大的假設.我想，我們真的在試圖表達交易量的方向和我們收入的結果。

And we'll go next to Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

我們將與 JMP Securities 一起討論 Andrew Boone。

As we think about you moving more loans on to the balance sheet, can you help us understand the guardrails that you're thinking about? I understood it's still early here, but how do we think about just what's the potential for using the balance sheet? And then as you talked about lenders and just the attractiveness of yields that are available right now, can you talk about just how you're educating your partners to be able to step back in? How can you proactively have them come back?

當我們考慮您將更多貸款轉移到資產負債表上時，您能幫助我們了解您正在考慮的護欄嗎？我知道現在還為時過早，但我們如何考慮使用資產負債表的潛力？然後，當您談到貸方以及目前可獲得的收益率的吸引力時，您能否談談您如何教育您的合作夥伴能夠重新介入？如何主動讓他們回來？

Andrew, this is Dave. On the balance sheet usage, I would just say, first of all, we will most certainly be prudent in usage of our cash in any way. As Sanjay said earlier, it is not our intention to become a large balance sheet lender whatsoever. Our long-term strategy hasn't changed. We aren't becoming a bank. But certainly, we see ourselves in a transitional phase where we are recognizing the need for permanent or more committed capital on the platform.

安德魯，這是戴夫。關於資產負債表的使用，我只想說，首先，我們肯定會以任何方式謹慎使用我們的現金。正如桑傑早些時候所說，我們無意成為一家大型資產負債表貸方。我們的長期戰略沒有改變。我們不會變成銀行。但可以肯定的是，我們認為自己處於過渡階段，我們正在認識到平台上需要永久或更承諾的資本。

And as a bridge to that, we want to have the freedom to do the right things at the right time to get from here to there. It doesn't really change our overall philosophy, but we -- nor do we think it's great at this time to have sort of a litmus test of not using our balance sheet whatsoever with a lot of cash in our balance sheet, and we want to use it to the advantage of the business over the long haul.

作為實現這一目標的橋樑，我們希望有自由在正確的時間做正確的事情，從這裡到那裡。它並沒有真正改變我們的整體理念，但我們——我們也不認為在這個時候進行某種試金石測試，即在我們的資產負債表中有大量現金的情況下不使用我們的資產負債表，我們想要長期使用它來為企業帶來優勢。

So but for sure, we're a company that has always been very much capital efficient as a private company, what we raised very modestly compared to others how we used it. We've been profitable most of our time as a public company. So I think we have the genetics of the company that likes to be cash efficient, and we certainly will do nothing to put our operational capacity at risk or our business at risk with our balance sheet irrespective of whether or not we choose to use some of it within the marketplace.

因此，但可以肯定的是，作為一家私營公司，我們一直是一家資本效率非常高的公司，與其他人相比，我們籌集的資金非常有限。作為一家上市公司，我們大部分時間都在盈利。因此，我認為我們擁有喜歡現金效率的公司的基因，無論我們是否選擇使用一些它在市場上。

Sanjay, do you have anything to add to that?

桑傑，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I mean, I guess, sure, just -- Andrew, I'll just reiterate. It's still our intention in the long term to be a platform that decisions third-party capital. We don't want to be in the business of being a balance sheet. Now as you've seen, we're sort of signaling a contraction in our guidance. We recognize that we need less (inaudible) funding, more committed funding and they get us through to that point.

是的。我的意思是，我想，當然，只是- 安德魯，我只是重申一下。從長遠來看，我們仍然打算成為一個決定第三方資本的平台。我們不想從事成為資產負債表的業務。正如你所看到的，我們在某種程度上暗示我們的指導會收縮。我們認識到我們需要更少（聽不清）的資金，更多的承諾資金，他們讓我們通過了這一點。

I think what we're expressing is not so much an intention as a need for flexibility in making that transition. But as Dave said, we've always been very, very careful stewards of the capital that are on our balance sheet. We've always run a very lean company. So this is really more about just making sure we have what's in maybe on a stability of model in order to make that transition.

我認為我們所表達的與其說是一種意圖，不如說是在進行這種過渡時需要靈活性。但正如戴夫所說，我們一直非常非常謹慎地管理資產負債表上的資本。我們一直經營著一家非常精益的公司。因此，這實際上更多是為了確保我們擁有模型的穩定性，以便進行過渡。

And then the second question you asked is how are we engaging the capital markets and the funding markets in order to provide them miscomfort. And there's a couple of ways. I mean, certainly, the amount of information that we've provided to the broader public in the form of sort of FAQs and the blog posts and the additional investor information we've released today, we have a much deeper level of information that we take to the funding markets. And in fact, in the same way that we hold sort of a conference broadcast in order to discuss business results with the equity markets, we're going to have a similar construct, with the funding markets.

然後你問的第二個問題是，我們如何讓資本市場和融資市場參與進來，讓他們感到不舒服。有幾種方法。我的意思是，當然，我們以常見問題解答和博客文章的形式向廣大公眾提供的信息量以及我們今天發布的其他投資者信息，我們擁有更深層次的信息進入融資市場。事實上，就像我們舉行某種會議廣播以與股票市場討論業務成果一樣，我們將與融資市場建立類似的結構。

And so we do have, I think, as much or more information about anybody as the current direction of delinquencies in very real time and we're going to do our best to express that. And then part of this goes back to your question on balance sheet in some sense that the markets would like a signal of confidence in the way that the loans are currently being priced and in the macro assumptions that Dave talked about and using our balance sheet to some extent as a signal, I think, can provide a lot of comfort to the funding market. So that's something that's not lost on us given the asymmetry of information that we have around how the models are calibrated and how the loans are currently trending.

因此，我認為，我們確實擁有與當前違約方向一樣多或更多的關於任何人的實時信息，我們將盡最大努力表達這一點。然後在某種程度上回到你關於資產負債表的問題，即市場希望對貸款目前的定價方式以及戴夫談到的宏觀假設以及使用我們的資產負債表我認為，在某種程度上，作為一個信號，可以為資金市場提供很多安慰。因此，鑑於我們掌握的關於模型如何校準以及貸款當前趨勢如何的信息不對稱，我們並沒有忘記這一點。

We'll go next to Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們將與巴克萊一起去拉姆齊·埃爾阿薩爾旁邊。

Can you give us some color on what you're seeing most recently in the business quarter-to-date in July?

您能否就您最近在 7 月份的業務季度至今看到的情況給我們一些顏色？

Ramsey, this is Sanjay. Are you referring to any particular aspect of the business, meaning the financials, the sort of volume, the credit performance or just a general sort of?

拉姆齊，這是桑傑。您是指業務的任何特定方面，是指財務、交易量、信用表現還是一般的方面？

Kind of -- it was quite general.

有點——很籠統。

Okay. I mean I think the best expression of what we're seeing to date in the business is, I said, is sort of reflected in our guidance, if you will. So I think that, as we've said, there's a continuing contraction on the top line, which is evident to anyone. And I think that's probably the headline for what we're managing through right now.

好的。我的意思是，我認為我們迄今為止在業務中看到的最好的表達方式是，我說，如果你願意的話，在某種程度上反映在我們的指導中。所以我認為，正如我們所說，收入持續收縮，這對任何人來說都是顯而易見的。我認為這可能是我們現在正在管理的標題。

And would you characterize that as having gone down and you're sort of seeing some stability in performance at this point? Or is it still something where you have relatively limited visibility as trends are sort of maybe unstable and still sort of on the move?

您是否會將其描述為已經下降並且您在這一點上看到了一些性能穩定性？還是由於趨勢可能不穩定並且仍在移動中，您的知名度仍然相對有限？

And when you say performance trends, are you referring to credit performance or...

當您說績效趨勢時，您是指信用績效還是...

I am referring to credit performance, but also, I guess, in addition, perhaps like the demand environment?

我指的是信用表現，也是，我猜，除此之外，或許像需求環境？

I don't think there's too much to comment on with respect to the demand environment outside of what we're signaling with guidance. I think that's probably the best reflection we have of it.

除了我們通過指導發出的信號之外，我認為沒有太多關於需求環境的評論。我認為這可能是我們對它的最好反映。

With respect to credit trends, I would say that the macro environment remains very fluid, obviously, and it's something that I think is changing month by month. And so I would characterize that as continuing fluidity. I would say with respect to how our model is sort of consuming and predicting the future, I think there's been significant recalibrations in our model since the beginning of this year. So when you therefore look at how the loans are performing against how they're being priced, I think there's pretty big changes in those curves. Maybe starting as sort of recently as January, February.

關於信貸趨勢，我想說宏觀環境顯然仍然非常不穩定，而且我認為這是逐月變化的。因此，我將其描述為持續的流動性。我想說的是，關於我們的模型如何消費和預測未來，我認為自今年年初以來，我們的模型已經進行了重大的重新校準。因此，當您查看貸款的表現與定價方式時，我認為這些曲線發生了相當大的變化。也許從最近的一月、二月開始。

And so due to that, I think that the model has very much recalibrated to where the macro is. And as Dave said, in terms of how it's thinking about the future, there's significant conservatism and the assumptions around what will happen in the macro. And we don't have any specific knowledge or ability to forecast the macro than you or anyone else has. But with what we have and the trends we're seeing, I think that you could say that the assumptions are very conservative.

因此，我認為該模型已經重新校準到宏所在的位置。正如戴夫所說，就它對未來的看法而言，存在著重大的保守主義以及圍繞宏觀將發生的事情的假設。而且我們沒有任何特定的知識或能力來預測宏觀，而不是您或其他任何人。但是根據我們所擁有的和我們所看到的趨勢，我認為您可以說這些假設非常保守。

And we'll move on to our next question from Pete Christiansen with Citi.

我們將繼續討論 Pete Christiansen 與花旗的下一個問題。

To Dave, as it relates to the relationship with the CFPB, can you just walk through some of the changes that have been there? I know there's a bunch of nuances. But if you can give your take of how that relationship is moving? And then my second question as it relates to the 3Q guide, are there any assumptions that there'll be ABS issuance in the quarter?

對於 Dave，因為它涉及到與 CFPB 的關係，你能簡單介紹一下已經發生的一些變化嗎？我知道有很多細微差別。但是，如果你能給出你的看法，這種關係是如何發展的？然後我的第二個問題與第三季度指南有關，是否有任何假設會在本季度發行 ABS？

Sure. Thanks, Pete. I'll take the first question. I'll let Sanjay handle the second one. We continue to have what we consider to be a great relationship with the CFPB. We've had that relationship since the very early days of the company through 3 different administrations. So we have a lot of history with them. We consider it constructive. We've always been very transparent and forthright with them.

當然。謝謝，皮特。我會回答第一個問題。我會讓桑傑處理第二個。我們繼續與 CFPB 保持我們認為的良好關係。自從公司成立之初，我們就通過 3 個不同的主管部門建立了這種關係。所以我們和他們有很多歷史。我們認為這是建設性的。我們一直對他們非常透明和直率。

As many know, we had this form of a no action letter agreement that started way back in 2017, renewed in 2022. And a few months back, we requested to terminated early, really in the sense that it was mission accomplished. It had done what we hoped in terms of getting a lot of feedback from the CFPB on how to properly test for fairness in sort of modern-lending model. And so through a lot of period of times in the years, we built what we consider to be very sophisticated forms of testing that we do on behalf of all of our bank partners.

眾所周知，我們有這種形式的不採取行動的信函協議，該協議早在 2017 年就開始了，並在 2022 年續簽。幾個月前，我們要求提前終止，實際上是因為它已經完成了任務。它已經完成了我們希望從 CFPB 獲得大量關於如何正確測試現代借貸模型公平性的反饋。因此，多年來，我們建立了我們認為非常複雜的測試形式，我們代表所有銀行合作夥伴進行測試。

So we have a continued strong relationship with CFPB. That structure of no action letters, et cetera, is something that CFPB internally decided they want to move away from. So I think that's okay by us as we said, we felt in the early days of our existence and before we had really refined how to do fairness testing right. It was very useful. But today, we continue to believe we have state-of-the-art fairness testing. We do that reliably on behalf of all of our lending partners, and we do continue to have open communication with CFPB and would expect to do so in the future as well.

因此，我們與 CFPB 保持著持續牢固的關係。 CFPB 內部決定要擺脫這種無行動信函等結構。所以我認為我們沒問題，正如我們所說，我們在我們存在的早期就感覺到了，在我們真正完善如何正確地進行公平測試之前。這非常有用。但是今天，我們仍然相信我們擁有最先進的公平測試。我們代表我們所有的貸款合作夥伴可靠地做到這一點，我們確實繼續與 CFPB 保持開放的溝通，並希望在未來也這樣做。

Pete, this is Sanjay. To your second question, there's no explicit assumptions we're making with respect to ABS issuance in our guidance. And we continue to issue regularly, obviously, the execution in the market right now is quite volatile. But we don't have an explicit assumption on what that looks like or dependency on it.

皮特，這是桑傑。對於你的第二個問題，我們的指導中沒有關於 ABS 發行的明確假設。而且我們繼續定期發行，顯然，目前市場上的執行情況非常不穩定。但是我們對它的外觀或對它的依賴沒有明確的假設。

And we will go next to Arvind Ramnani with Piper Sandler.

我們將與 Piper Sandler 一起前往 Arvind Ramnani。

Just a couple of questions. As you're deciding to use your own balance sheet or use your banking partners or some of your loans, what are some of the trigger points you will use to kind of make that determination?

只是幾個問題。當您決定使用自己的資產負債表或使用您的銀行合作夥伴或您的一些貸款時，您將使用哪些觸發點來做出決定？

Arvind, this is Dave. Let's just say, I mean, we don't have specific trigger points per se. What we just want to really have is flexibility. I think being able to transition from one state of our funding supply to another is one we want to make sure go smoothly and with some confidence and just in getting from here to there in a way that's not disruptive to our partners, to our employees, to anything else.

阿文德，這是戴夫。讓我們說，我的意思是，我們本身沒有特定的觸發點。我們真正想要的是靈活性。我認為能夠從我們的資金供應的一種狀態過渡到另一種狀態是我們希望確保順利進行並且充滿信心的一種狀態，並且只是以一種不會對我們的合作夥伴，對我們的員工造成破壞的方式從這裡到那裡，其他任何事情。

So we don't have any definitive trigger points other than we absolutely intend to be cautious and prudent with the use of our cash. We are confident that there is real profits available on our platform today. So for that sort of basic reason that makes sense for us to do so. But it is not our goal to build a giant balance sheet, and then certainly not our intention over time is to sort of switch toward that form of the business.

因此，除了我們絕對打算謹慎謹慎地使用我們的現金外，我們沒有任何明確的觸發點。我們有信心今天在我們的平台上可以獲得真正的利潤。因此，出於某種基本原因，我們這樣做是有意義的。但建立龐大的資產負債表並不是我們的目標，隨著時間的推移，我們當然也不會打算轉向這種業務形式。

We do believe that it makes most sense for us, for our employees, for our shareholders, for all of our partners to have some flexibility in how we navigate through a pretty unique economic time that we are sitting in today.

我們確實相信，對於我們、我們的員工、我們的股東、我們所有的合作夥伴來說，在我們如何度過我們今天所處的一個非常獨特的經濟時代時擁有一些靈活性是最有意義的。

Yes. That's helpful. And is that something that you will sort of plan to communicate to investors as you look to expand the balance sheet? Or is it kind of going to be part of the regularly scheduled earnings calls, if you plan to go that route?

是的。這很有幫助。當您希望擴大資產負債表時，您會計劃與投資者交流嗎？或者，如果你打算走這條路，它會成為定期安排的收益電話會議的一部分嗎？

This is Sanjay. I think it will make a component of our regular communications with the market. I don't necessarily foresee anything that's so extraordinary that would require an interim communication. But if there is, we'll certainly make it.

這是桑傑。我認為這將成為我們與市場定期溝通的一部分。我不一定會預見到任何需要臨時溝通的非常特別的事情。但如果有，我們一定會成功的。

Just as an aside, I don't know if you've seen it, but we are sort of breaking out the balance sheet and the exact components of it in the investor materials now.

順便說一句，我不知道你是否看過，但我們現在正在投資者材料中分解資產負債表及其確切組成部分。

Yes. Yes. I did see that. And then just one of the things that you talked about certainly was how you continue to see your models better equipped to price loans. And I know in prior earnings calls, you've talked about some banks preferring to you Upstart versus like a FICO score.

是的。是的。我確實看到了。然後你談到的其中一件事當然是你如何繼續看到你的模型更好地為貸款定價。而且我知道在之前的財報電話會議中，您談到了一些銀行更喜歡 Upstart 而不是 FICO 分數。

But are you seeing similar validation through your partners that, that may sort of ease up the funding sources in terms of like sort of really validating that your models are better to price loans and to shift volume your way?

但是，您是否通過您的合作夥伴看到類似的驗證，這可能會在某種程度上減輕資金來源，就像真正驗證您的模型更適合貸款定價和以您的方式轉移數量？

Well, Arvind, one of the things that we've kind of tried to make is pretty clear is that the 70-plus banks and credit unions who tend to originate and hold the primary end of the credit have all done really well through all parts of the cycle, if you will, and have actually performed at or above expectations. So I don't think we necessarily need any more than that. Some of them have stated it publicly, and we can see it in the data, and I've shared the aggregate data.

好吧，Arvind，我們試圖說明的一件事很清楚，那就是 70 多家銀行和信用合作社傾向於發起並持有信貸的主要目的，在各個方面都做得很好週期，如果你願意，並且實際表現達到或超過預期。所以我認為我們不需要更多。他們中的一些人已經公開表示過，我們可以在數據中看到它，我已經分享了匯總數據。

So I think that that's all a very good thing. But I think a lot of the issue out there really is about what may happen in the next year or 2 years. And everybody has the right to have a different opinion about that and take actions based on that opinion. So that's part of, of course, the challenge is -- it's about the future, not about exactly what's going on in the last year or 2 years.

所以我認為這是一件非常好的事情。但我認為很多問題都與未來一年或兩年可能發生的事情有關。每個人都有權對此有不同的意見並根據該意見採取行動。當然，這也是挑戰的一部分——這是關於未來的，而不是關於過去一年或兩年發生的事情。

And in that sense, that's why we have sort of said we want to move toward investor relationships that have a long-term approach across through-cycle approach toward investing, and that will be in the end, lead to a much stronger platform for Upstart.

從這個意義上說，這就是為什麼我們有點說我們希望建立投資者關係，這種關係具有跨週期投資的長期方法，最終將為 Upstart 帶來一個更強大的平台.

We'll go to our next question from Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

我們將與斯蒂芬斯一起回答文森特凱恩蒂克的下一個問題。

I have 2. First question, so on the balance sheet usage. So I appreciate your comments on that. And if you could talk about your balance sheet strength. So you've got over $900 million in cash. And I guess if you were to leverage that, conservative leverage, maybe you could do $2 billion to $3 billion of originations to support the business in the interim. So I'm just wondering if you can maybe talk about some of the guardrails or sort of how you're thinking about the balance sheet usage.

我有 2。第一個問題，關於資產負債表的使用。所以我很欣賞你對此的評論。如果你能談談你的資產負債表實力。所以你有超過9億美元的現金。而且我猜如果你要利用這一點，保守的槓桿，也許你可以做 20 億到 30 億美元的資金來支持臨時的業務。所以我只是想知道您是否可以談論一些護欄或您如何看待資產負債表的使用。

And then relatedly, I think you spoke about in the prior press release about selling some of the loans that were on the balance sheet. If you could talk about how that performed. I see there's still about $600 million this quarter. How was the -- how did that go? And what was the, I guess, the par value?

然後相關地，我認為您在之前的新聞稿中談到了出售資產負債表上的一些貸款。如果你能談談它的表現如何。我看到本季度仍有大約 6 億美元。怎麼樣 - 那是怎麼回事？我猜，票面價值是多少？

Vin, this is Sanjay. So just to maybe put some parameters on our balance sheet. That's correct. We have sort of the $900 million in restricted and unrestricted cash. I would say we have about probably $400 million of loan equity on the balance sheet and about $600 million of assets. So maybe about $200 million of that is financed. That will -- we don't have an intention of getting into large amounts of financed loans. So numbers that you alluded to on your -- and I don't think it would be anything approaching that. I think it would be much more modest.

文，這是桑傑。因此，也許只是在我們的資產負債表上添加一些參數。這是正確的。我們有大約 9 億美元的受限制和不受限制的現金。我想說我們的資產負債表上大約有 4 億美元的貸款權益和大約 6 億美元的資產。因此，其中可能有大約 2 億美元得到了融資。那將——我們無意獲得大量融資貸款。所以你提到的數字 - 我認為它不會接近那個。我認為它會更謙虛。

And this is an environment which (inaudible) average and candidly, it's not readily available these days at reasonable prices anyway. So I think of our loan balance sheet sort of flexibility has been denoted in values of maybe a couple of hundred million dollars.

坦率地說，這是一個（聽不清）平均的環境，無論如何，這些天都不容易以合理的價格獲得。因此，我認為我們的貸款資產負債表的靈活性可能以數億美元的價值表示。

With respect to loan transactions, I would say transactions, like the main force of gravity on those is what's going on with rates in the environment as you're transacting. In most of the transactions we've had have been older vintages, so vintages that have accumulated maybe in Q1 of this year and 6 months later, interest rates have gone up. And so to the extent that they have executed below par and we've indicated that, that has created some of the negative fair value pressure in our P&L. It's really a function of the fact that some of the more seasoned loans have just been impacted by the extreme environment this year.

關於貸款交易，我會說交易，就像這些交易的主要重力是你交易時環境中的利率正在發生的事情。在我們進行的大多數交易中，都是較舊的年份，因此可能在今年第一季度和 6 個月後積累的年份，利率上升了。因此，如果他們的執行低於標準，我們已經表明，這在我們的損益表中造成了一些負面的公允價值壓力。這實際上是因為一些更成熟的貸款剛剛受到今年極端環境的影響。

Okay. I appreciate it. And one question, just following up on guidance. Just if you could talk about. So the $170 million in revenues, if maybe you can talk about the cadence of that? Like are you seeing an improving performance as we go through the quarter. And on the contribution margin. So I'm calculating 59%. So a nice expansion there. Just wondering what would be driving that maybe less marketing expense or more efficiency, if you could just talk about that.

好的。我很感激。還有一個問題，只是跟進指導。只要你能談談。那麼1.7億美元的收入，如果你能談談它的節奏嗎？就像您在本季度中看到的改善表現一樣。以及邊際貢獻。所以我計算的是 59%。所以那裡有一個很好的擴展。只是想知道是什麼推動了營銷費用的減少或效率的提高，如果你能談談的話。

Sure. Yes. I guess in terms of the guidance, we're not really telegraphing any directionality. I would say things are volatile right now. And so that's more of a level than a trend, if you will. With respect to the contribution margins, yes, I mean it's sort of a bit what we referenced earlier, which is when we're in a period of contraction like this, we optimize for in-quarter cash generation. And candidly, it's one of the important economic characteristics of the business, which is we can -- we're essentially suffering or sort of telegraphing a roughly 50% contraction between the forward guidance and what we did last -- or in Q1, and yet we can weather that with still guiding to breakeven EBITDA.

當然。是的。我想就指導而言，我們並沒有真正傳達任何方向性。我會說現在情況很不穩定。因此，如果您願意的話，這更像是一個水平而不是趨勢。關於邊際貢獻，是的，我的意思是有點像我們之前提到的，即當我們處於這樣的收縮期時，我們會優化季度現金生成。坦率地說，這是該業務的重要經濟特徵之一，我們可以——我們基本上正在遭受或在某種程度上暗示前瞻指引與我們上次所做的——或在第一季度——之間收縮了大約 50%，並且然而，我們仍然可以在指導盈虧平衡 EBITDA 的情況下度過難關。

And the reason is because we have quite a bit of control in terms of our ability to set fees. We tend to be inelastic and below optimal fee levels in normal times, and so we can raise them to buffer volume contractions. And as you said, when we have less funding availability, our marketing programs, we tend to sort of keep the more efficient ones and discard the more experimental ones. So as a result, our take rates go up, our acquisition costs tend to go down and create some margin expansion, which in some sense tends to push against the volume contraction, and it allows us to be somewhat resilient as a business model.

原因是我們在設定費用的能力方面有相當多的控制權。在正常情況下，我們往往缺乏彈性並且低於最佳費用水平，因此我們可以提高它們以緩衝交易量收縮。正如你所說，當我們的可用資金減少時，我們的營銷計劃，我們傾向於保留效率更高的計劃並放棄更具實驗性的計劃。因此，我們的收取率上升，我們的收購成本趨於下降並創造一些利潤率擴張，這在某種意義上往往會推動銷量收縮，它使我們作為一種商業模式具有一定的彈性。

And we'll go next to Jim Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與摩根士丹利一起前往 Jim Faucette。

Thanks for all the detail and supplemental information. I'm wondering, when we look at kind of your expected returns on by quarter, et cetera, is that you're showing that you expect a pretty significant improvement on the cohort from Q1 '22 versus Q3 and Q4, even though the total -- or the target gross return is similar or even a little bit lower. Can you talk a little bit about the changes that were made for that Q1 '22 and that are driving your expected return higher versus what was being done in the second half of last year?

感謝您提供所有詳細信息和補充信息。我想知道，當我們按季度查看您的預期回報等時，您是否表明您期望從 22 年第一季度與第三季度和第四季度相比，您的隊列會有相當顯著的改善，儘管總——或者目標總回報是相似的，甚至更低。您能否談談為 22 年第一季度所做的更改，以及與去年下半年所做的相比，這些更改使您的預期回報更高？

Jim, this is Sanjay. Sure. I mean, the simple version is you're seeing the model recalibrating to the changing environment. And in particular, I think starting in probably Q3 of 2021, the delinquency trends in the industry started to rise. And it's been disproportionately, I'd say, born by the, I would say, the less affluent borrowers, if you will. And so our models observe that and react to it and change pricing as that is happening.

吉姆，這是桑傑。當然。我的意思是，簡單的版本是您看到模型重新校準以適應不斷變化的環境。特別是，我認為可能從 2021 年第三季度開始，該行業的拖欠趨勢開始上升。如果你願意的話，我會說，它不成比例地由那些不太富裕的借款人出生。因此，我們的模型會觀察到這一點，並對它做出反應，並在發生這種情況時改變定價。

And so in some sense, because that trend had happened between Q3 of '21 and early this year, maybe, call it, Q1 or Q2 of this year, our model has been reacting to that, adjusting, recalibrating. And on top of that, we do what you might think of as a manual overlay, which is we have to make some estimate of what we think the future macro holds because that's not something that's in the training data for our machines.

所以從某種意義上說，因為這種趨勢發生在 21 年第三季度和今年年初之間，也許可以稱之為今年第一季度或第二季度，我們的模型一直在對此做出反應，調整、重新校準。最重要的是，我們會做你可能認為的手動疊加，即我們必須對我們認為未來宏的內容做出一些估計，因為這不是我們機器訓練數據中的內容。

And so in addition to the model we're calibrating to loss trends as they change, we are making more conservative forward predictions what the macro will sort of do in the future. And we're to the point now where I would say our macro accommodation is fairly conservative in terms of what we're expecting to happen or maybe expecting it the wrong way, we're prepared to happen in the macro given inflation and unemployment, et cetera.

因此，除了我們根據損失趨勢變化來校準的模型之外，我們還在對宏觀未來的走勢做出更保守的前瞻性預測。而且我們現在已經到了這樣的地步，我會說我們的宏觀調控在我們預期會發生的事情方面相當保守，或者可能以錯誤的方式預期發生，鑑於通貨膨脹和失業率，我們準備在宏觀上發生，等等。

And so those are really the 2 variables that are changing. It's the model's estimate of loss depending as a function of the changing actuals and it's our forward prediction of how to prepare for macro -- continued macro volatility?

因此，這確實是兩個正在發生變化的變量。這是模型對損失的估計，取決於實際變化的函數，也是我們對如何為宏觀——持續的宏觀波動做準備的前瞻性預測？

Got it. And then when you talk about looking to add committed capital and expanding that range of partnerships and agreements. What's your expectation for what that's going to do on cost of capital and what you would need to do, if anything? And if there is an impact, what you would need to do around fees and those kinds of things? Just trying to figure out like what you may have to give up in order to achieve that longer, better or stickier capital, I guess?

知道了。然後，當您談到尋求增加承諾資本並擴大合作夥伴關係和協議範圍時。您對資本成本將要做什麼以及您需要做什麼（如果有的話）有何期望？如果有影響，您需要圍繞費用和此類事情做些什麼？只是想弄清楚你可能必須放棄什麼才能獲得更長、更好或更具粘性的資本，我猜？

Yes, it's a great question, James. I would say that -- on the one hand, it will make notionally -- certainly to a capital provider who's committing capital forward, there's cost for that. I think it will make capital on the margin more expensive in good times, but maybe on the margin less expensive in times like now because they're investing through the full cycle.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，詹姆斯。我會說 - 一方面，它會在概念上 - 對於一個承諾向前投入資金的資本提供者來說，這是有成本的。我認為這會使邊際資本在經濟繁榮時期變得更加昂貴，但在像現在這樣的時期，邊際資本的成本可能會降低，因為他們正在整個週期內進行投資。

And the other variable is that as we sort of talked about in some of the other questions, we are quite margin rich. And so we ourselves can trade off economics in the good times or economics in the choppier periods in the next economic cycle such that the investor is whole, and we're creating more stability for the platform. So I think to the extent the committed capital is more expensive in the benign period, we can offset that through our own business model and then make it up when there are down cycles as they inevitably will be.

另一個變量是，正如我們在其他一些問題中談到的那樣，我們的利潤相當豐厚。因此，我們自己可以在下一個經濟周期的好時光或動盪時期權衡經濟，這樣投資者就是完整的，我們正在為平台創造更多的穩定性。因此，我認為，如果承諾資本在良性時期更加昂貴，我們可以通過我們自己的商業模式來抵消它，然後在不可避免地出現下行週期時彌補。

So we view our margins to be a lever that we can use to make sure that the investors are stable and the platform is stable and the borrowers are getting some amount of stability. Even though, as you know, our mission is to fundamentally lend to for a proportion of the population, which notionally are riskier.

因此，我們認為我們的保證金是一個槓桿，可以用來確保投資者穩定、平台穩定以及借款人獲得一定程度的穩定。儘管如您所知，我們的使命是從根本上為一部分人口提供貸款，這在理論上風險更大。

And we'll go next to Nat Schindler of Bank of America.

我們將在美國銀行的 Nat Schindler 旁邊。

I think a lot of my questions have been asked already. But one thing I wanted to go over, well, 2 things. One, you said that you're going to go out to lenders and you have now a cross-cycle vision of your performance. Are we really cross cycle? Are you modeling that this is the bottom, and we've turned the corner on kind of the low-end consumer that is contrary to what most of our economists are saying at this point? So I wanted to just understand what you mean and whether or not you think that these delinquencies are going to get worse from here or better.

我想我的很多問題已經被問到了。但是我想回顧一件事，嗯，兩件事。一，你說你要去找貸方，你現在對你的表現有了一個跨週期的看法。我們真的是跨週期嗎？您是否在模擬這是底部，我們已經轉向低端消費者，這與我們大多數經濟學家目前所說的相反？所以我想了解你的意思，以及你是否認為這些違法行為會從這裡變得更糟或更好。

Finally, also, I'm a little confused on the back and forth of the balance sheet, no balance sheet, using the balance sheet, not using the balance sheet. One, why this oscillation? And two, how much of your -- how much do you really think that you're ever going to get to on their balance sheet? I mean, originally, you were saying you're going to be only about 5% and that's for experimental purposes. I think in Q1, you got up to 15%, and you said you would go down from there. While that was experimental with auto anyways. And now you're saying you're going to go onto the balance sheet again. What kind of level do you think makes sense?

最後，我對資產負債表的來回有點困惑，沒有資產負債表，使用資產負債表，不使用資產負債表。一，為什麼會出現這種振盪？第二，你的多少 - 你真的認為你會在他們的資產負債表上達到多少？我的意思是，最初，您說您將只有 5% 左右，這是出於實驗目的。我認為在第一季度，你達到了 15%，你說你會從那裡下降。雖然那是對 auto 的實驗。現在你說你將再次進入資產負債表。你覺得什麼樣的水平才有意義？

One final question on top of that, and I'm sorry for the 3, but who are these investors that you haven't talked to? Who are you going out to, to kind of increase your supply? Just are they people that don't do personal loans? Are they people that are new to this market? Who is out there that you are trying to evangelize the product to on the supply?

最重要的是最後一個問題，我為這 3 個問題感到抱歉，但這些投資者是誰，你還沒有談過呢？你要去找誰，增加你的供應？他們只是不做個人貸款的人嗎？他們是這個市場的新手嗎？您試圖在供應上向誰宣傳產品？

Nat, this is Sanjay. I'll take your first question and then Dave and I will (inaudible) on the last 2. The first question was about do we really think we're at past the bottom of the cycle. I think in a short word, no. But I'll just give you our view on a couple of different nuances. So first of all, I do think that what's happened to date. While in the aggregate, I think that maybe there's a view that it hasn't been too bad to date, and there's more to come. I think the picture is sort of a little bit different in a nuanced way depending where you are in the credit spectrum.

納特，這是桑傑。我會回答你的第一個問題，然後是戴夫和我（聽不清）最後兩個問題。第一個問題是關於我們是否真的認為我們已經過了周期的底部。我想一句話，不。但是，我將就幾個不同的細微差別向您提供我們的看法。所以首先，我確實認為迄今為止發生的事情。雖然總的來說，我認為也許有一種觀點認為它迄今為止還不算太糟糕，而且還會有更多。我認為根據您在信用範圍內的位置，情況會以一種微妙的方式有所不同。

And if you look at the industry data, if you're an affluent borrower and you talk about like what has been the best sort of credit performance in the last year sort of mid-2021? And where are you compared to there? You're up mildly, you're up 30% and you're still below pre-COVID numbers. If you are on the less affluent side of the spectrum, you were up much more than that and you're well past where you were pre-COVID. So I think that the timing of all this is a little bit different. I think that the less affluent side of the spectrum peaked a little bit sooner and has come up a little bit sooner and maybe prime borrowers are still sort of in that schedule somewhere.

如果您查看行業數據，如果您是一位富裕的借款人，並且您會談論去年（2021 年年中）最好的信貸表現是什麼？你和那里相比在哪裡？你的漲幅溫和，上漲了 30%，但仍低於 COVID 之前的數字。如果您處於頻譜中較不富裕的一方，那麼您的漲幅遠不止於此，而且您已經遠遠超過了 COVID 之前的水平。所以我認為這一切的時機有點不同。我認為頻譜中較不富裕的一面會更快地達到頂峰，並且出現的時間也更快，也許主要藉款人仍然在某個時間表中。

So -- and then I think the second component is we've largely -- to us, it's not just -- it's the rate of change of things and the very sudden changes in the delinquency trends in our core borrower we've sort of cut up to and we're making significant conservative assumptions about the future. So I think we're expecting further degradation in loss trends. But I think that the difference is compared to like mid-2021 when everything was rosy, and everyone still have a lot of stimulus in the bank account and delinquencies were still like 50% of long-term normal. We are now projecting it and prepared for it.

所以 - 然後我認為第二個組成部分是我們在很大程度上 - 對我們來說，不僅僅是 - 它是事物的變化率以及我們核心借款人的拖欠趨勢的非常突然的變化，我們有點我們正在對未來做出重要的保守假設。所以我認為我們預計損失趨勢會進一步惡化。但我認為，與 2021 年中期相比，當時一切都還不錯，每個人的銀行賬戶裡都有很多刺激措施，拖欠率仍然是長期正常水平的 50%。我們現在正在預測它並為此做好準備。

So there is still a world in which these vintages underperformed going forward. But it would have to be a very, very significant economic sort of step back in our view. And so what we really care about demonstrating to someone who will be forward-committing capital, in sort of a cross cycle kind of a way is like what's the cycle of the returns. And if you look at the sort of returns that we -- by cohort that we talked about in the investor materials, you can see that it's sort of troughed with the Q3, Q4 vintages. The Q1 looks like it's sort of working its way back. And I think that you'll see that when you see those Q2 numbers. Our belief is we will be able to tell a story that the returns have gone through the cycle and we're on the front edge of what's coming.

因此，這些年份在未來仍然表現不佳。但在我們看來，這必須是一種非常非常重要的經濟倒退。因此，我們真正關心的是以某種跨週期的方式向將要投入資本的人展示的，就像回報的周期是什麼。如果您查看我們在投資者材料中討論的按隊列劃分的那種回報，您會發現它在第三季度和第四季度處於低谷。 Q1 看起來正在恢復原狀。我認為當你看到那些 Q2 數字時你會看到這一點。我們的信念是，我們將能夠講述一個故事，即回報已經經歷了這個週期，我們處於即將發生的事情的前沿。

And of course, you can never fully predict the future, but just the preparedness of our models and the conservatism of the macro assumptions are such that I think we're ahead of the curve now. So that's the question with -- so that's the answer to the first question. I think your second question was about balance sheet usage. I don't know, Dave, do you want to chime in on that?

當然，你永遠無法完全預測未來，但只是我們模型的準備和宏觀假設的保守性使得我認為我們現在處於領先地位。這就是問題——這就是第一個問題的答案。我認為你的第二個問題是關於資產負債表的使用。我不知道，戴夫，你想插話嗎？

Yes, sure. And Nat asked, I don't know exactly how to put it, what's with the back and forth on balance sheet usage is maybe the short version of it. But Nat, look, I'd just say we're -- the company I founded -- cofounded 10-plus years ago. The thing that's made us successful over the years is being nimble and thoughtful and responsive when needed by the market. And we certainly have a long-term view that we are a market-based business, meaning to bring lenders and investors together with consumers, borrowers on the other side, and that's how we view ourselves long term.

是的，當然。 Nat 問道，我不知道該怎麼說，資產負債表使用上的來回可能是它的簡短版本。但是納特，聽著，我只想說我們——我創立的公司——是 10 多年前共同創立的。多年來使我們成功的原因是在市場需要時靈活、周到且響應迅速。我們當然有一個長期的觀點，即我們是一家以市場為基礎的企業，這意味著將貸方和投資者與消費者、借款人聯繫在一起，這就是我們長期看待自己的方式。

Having said that, we came to the conclusion that having a sort of a litmus test that thou shalt not use the balance sheet at all, doesn't make sense, particularly when you see reaction to the supply side of our business happen in ways that almost the contrary effect to us, meaning credit is generally performing well. And yet for reasons that are obviously -- many of which are beyond our control, lenders or investors take decisions that they take.

話雖如此，我們得出的結論是，進行一種根本不使用資產負債表的試金石是沒有意義的，尤其是當您看到對我們業務供應方的反應以如下方式發生時對我們來說幾乎是相反的效果，這意味著信貸通常表現良好。然而，出於顯而易見的原因——其中許多是我們無法控制的，貸方或投資者會做出他們做出的決定。

So I just think in the interest of our shareholders and everybody else, it's prudent for us to use our balance sheet wisely. We don't intend to become a large balance sheet lender. But at the same time, we think it's important to state to the community out there that we're going to do the right things for the business, and we don't believe it makes sense to have a sort of ironclad litmus test that thousands shalt not use your balance sheet in the marketplace. And that's the conclusion we came to. We think it really is, as we've said numerous times now, a transitional step toward a place where we have committed third-party capital. And that's what we think also represents a significant chance to upgrade our business structure.

所以我只是認為為了我們的股東和其他所有人的利益，明智地使用我們的資產負債表是謹慎的做法。我們不打算成為大型資產負債表貸方。但與此同時，我們認為向社區聲明我們將為企業做正確的事情是很重要的，而且我們認為有一種鐵定的試金石是沒有意義的不得在市場上使用您的資產負債表。這就是我們得出的結論。正如我們現在已經多次說過的那樣，我們認為這確實是向我們承諾第三方資本的地方邁出的過渡步驟。這就是我們認為也代表著升級我們業務結構的重要機會。

And so put those altogether, and we think this is the right step forward for Upstart. It's going to be part of building a much larger, a much stronger Upstart over time.

所以把這些放在一起，我們認為這是 Upstart 向前邁出的正確一步。隨著時間的推移，它將成為建立一個更大、更強大的新貴的一部分。

And we will go next to David Chiaverini with Wedbush Securities.

我們將與 Wedbush Securities 一起前往 David Chiaverini。

The first question is on the take rate, and it makes sense to increase the take rate in this environment. I was curious, how high should we expect the take rate to go over the next couple of quarters?

第一個問題是take rate，在這種環境下提高take rate是有道理的。我很好奇，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們應該期望採取多高的利率？

David, it's Sanjay. I think maybe one way of putting this is, given the guidance we've put out for Q3, you might imagine that we're doing all that we can to ensure that our P&L remains resilient.

大衛，是桑傑。我認為也許一種說法是，鑑於我們為第三季度發布的指導，您可能會想像我們正在盡我們所能確保我們的損益保持彈性。

Got it. And then somewhat similar question on originations for the third quarter. I guess, zooming out back to the second quarter, are you able to share what the June origination number was and how that compares to July?

知道了。然後是關於第三季度起源的類似問題。我想，縮小到第二季度，您能否分享 6 月的原始數字是多少，以及與 7 月相比如何？

Yes. We're not breaking out specific months, David. I would just -- I would say that the trend right now is volatile. So there's no real directionality in our numbers with respect to June versus July.

是的。大衛，我們沒有具體的月份。我只想 - 我會說現在的趨勢是不穩定的。因此，相對於 6 月和 7 月，我們的數據沒有真正的方向性。

Got it. And then quickly on the buyback, can you talk about your appetite from here?

知道了。然後快速回購，你能從這裡談談你的胃口嗎？

Sure, David. Well, as you know, we have Board authorization to go up to $400 million, of which we've used $150 million. I mean, it's sort of an ongoing equation between where the price is versus what we think is fair value. And now, of course, what other sources and uses of cash or I guess, uses in particular, we might have. And so there's always opportunities, whether it's buying back the stock and reducing the dilution or looking at some of the convertibles in the market that are ours or buying loans, which, as Dave said, we think can have a very lucrative return right now. So I would just say that we're monitoring that on an ongoing basis, and we're certainly interested in making efficient use of our cash balance on behalf of the shareholders.

當然，大衛。好吧，如你所知，我們有董事會授權高達 4 億美元，其中我們已經使用了 1.5 億美元。我的意思是，這是價格與我們認為的公允價值之間的持續等式。現在，當然，現金的其他來源和用途，或者我猜，特別是我們可能擁有的用途。所以總是有機會，無論是回購股票並減少稀釋，還是查看市場上我們的一些可轉換債券或購買貸款，正如戴夫所說，我們認為現在可以獲得非常豐厚的回報。所以我只想說我們正在持續監控這一點，我們當然有興趣代表股東有效利用我們的現金餘額。

And now I will turn the call over to Dave Girouard for any additional or closing remarks.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Dave Girouard，以獲得任何補充或結束語。

Thanks all for being with us today. Sanjay and I just want to make clear, we're not happy with our results. We're not a company that likes to have a declining revenue from 1 quarter to the next. But we are -- we feel doing the right things to make the company as strong and as powerful as it can be in the future. We are as committed as ever to the mission of improving access to credit for those who deserve it, and we are making steps to make the company stronger and better and do anticipate we'll be back on a growth track. So we appreciate all of them sticking with us through this, and we're going to get back to work at making Upstart the great company that it is.

感謝大家今天與我們在一起。桑杰和我只是想澄清一下，我們對我們的結果並不滿意。我們不是一家喜歡從一個季度到下一個季度收入下降的公司。但我們是——我們覺得做正確的事情是為了讓公司在未來盡可能地強大和強大。我們一如既往地致力於改善那些值得獲得信貸的人的使命，我們正在採取措施使公司變得更強大和更好，並預計我們將回到增長軌道上。因此，我們感謝他們所有人在這期間一直支持我們，我們將重新開始工作，使 Upstart 成為一家偉大的公司。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。